2009 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New Orleans Saints

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Indianapolis Colts

4th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2006

Biggest Overachiever

San Diego Chargers

2.77 wins above expected

13 wins · 10.23 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Washington Redskins

2.45 wins below expected

4 wins · 6.45 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	10	6	.625	—	427	285	+142	10.28	-0.28
2	New York Jets Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	348	236	+112	8.51	+0.49
3	Miami Dolphins	7	9	.438	3	360	390	-30	7.29	-0.29
4	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	4	258	326	-68	6.06	-0.06

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	10	6	.625	—	305	291	+14	8.02	+1.98
2	Baltimore Ravens Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	391	261	+130	10.54	-1.54
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	7	.562	1	368	324	+44	10.95	-1.95
4	Cleveland Browns	5	11	.312	5	245	375	-130	5.03	-0.03

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	14	2	.875	—	416	307	+109	11.58	+2.42
2	Houston Texans	9	7	.562	5	388	333	+55	8.03	+0.97
3	Tennessee Titans	8	8	.500	6	354	402	-48	8.26	-0.26
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	7	9	.438	7	290	380	-90	6.95	+0.05

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Diego Chargers Division	13	3	.812	—	454	320	+134	10.23	+2.77
2	Denver Broncos	8	8	.500	5	326	324	+2	7.83	+0.17
3	Oakland Raiders	5	11	.312	8	197	379	-182	4.99	+0.01
4	Kansas City Chiefs	4	12	.250	9	294	424	-130	4.54	-0.54

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	11	5	.688	—	361	250	+111	9.04	+1.96
2	Philadelphia Eagles Playoffs	11	5	.688	—	429	337	+92	10.83	+0.17
3	New York Giants	8	8	.500	3	402	427	-25	9.19	-1.19
4	Washington Redskins	4	12	.250	7	266	336	-70	6.45	-2.45

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	12	4	.750	—	470	312	+158	10.86	+1.14
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	461	297	+164	9.40	+1.60
3	Chicago Bears	7	9	.438	5	327	375	-48	7.73	-0.73
4	Detroit Lions	2	14	.125	10	262	494	-232	3.89	-1.89

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	13	3	.812	—	510	341	+169	11.44	+1.56
2	Atlanta Falcons	9	7	.562	4	363	325	+38	8.56	+0.44
3	Carolina Panthers	8	8	.500	5	315	308	+7	6.75	+1.25
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	13	.188	10	244	400	-156	4.83	-1.83

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Arizona Cardinals Division	10	6	.625	—	375	325	+50	10.07	-0.07
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	8	.500	2	330	281	+49	7.69	+0.31
3	Seattle Seahawks	5	11	.312	5	280	390	-110	6.85	-1.85
4	St. Louis Rams	1	15	.062	9	175	436	-261	3.31	-2.31

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

New York Jets 24

Cincinnati Bengals 14

Jan 9

Baltimore Ravens 33

New England Patriots 14

Jan 10

Divisional Round

Indianapolis Colts 20

Baltimore Ravens 3

Jan 16

New York Jets 17

San Diego Chargers 14

Jan 17

Conference Championship

Indianapolis Colts 30

New York Jets 17

Jan 24

NFC

Wild Card Round

Dallas Cowboys 34

Philadelphia Eagles 14

Jan 9

Arizona Cardinals 51

Green Bay Packers 45

Jan 10

Divisional Round

New Orleans Saints 45

Arizona Cardinals 14

Jan 16

Minnesota Vikings 34

Dallas Cowboys 3

Jan 17

Conference Championship

New Orleans Saints 31

Minnesota Vikings 28

Jan 24

Super Bowl

New Orleans Saints 31

Indianapolis Colts 17

Feb 7

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1699	13	10.23	+2.77	96.76%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1697	13	11.44	+1.56	89.52%	4	9	10	11	13	14	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1677	14	11.58	+2.42	96.62%	5	9	10	12	13	14	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1656	11	9.04	+1.96	91.06%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1650	11	10.83	+0.17	63.79%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1646	10	10.28	-0.28	54.95%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1639	11	9.40	+1.60	86.78%	1	6	8	9	11	12	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1616	9	8.51	+0.49	69.94%	1	5	7	9	10	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1614	12	10.86	+1.14	82.15%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1613	9	10.54	-1.54	27.86%	4	8	9	11	12	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1608	9	10.95	-1.95	20.96%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1582	8	6.75	+1.25	82.58%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1565	9	8.03	+0.97	78.61%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1559	9	8.56	+0.44	69.17%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1546	10	10.07	-0.07	59.39%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1537	8	8.26	-0.26	55.42%	2	5	7	8	9	11	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1501	10	8.02	+1.98	91.96%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1496	8	7.69	+0.31	67.28%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1483	8	9.19	-1.19	36.10%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1468	7	7.29	-0.29	54.74%	0	4	6	7	9	10	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1446	7	7.73	-0.73	45.66%	2	5	6	8	9	11	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1442	8	7.83	+0.17	64.78%	2	5	7	8	9	11	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1405	6	6.06	-0.06	60.30%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1384	4	6.45	-2.45	13.63%	1	4	5	6	8	9	13
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1381	7	6.95	+0.05	61.96%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1375	5	5.03	-0.03	62.11%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1372	3	4.83	-1.83	23.36%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1334	5	6.85	-1.85	23.47%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1328	4	4.54	-0.54	50.68%	0	2	3	4	6	7	11
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1292	5	4.99	+0.01	63.58%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1199	2	3.89	-1.89	19.96%	0	1	3	4	5	7	10
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1193	1	3.31	-2.31	11.79%	0	1	2	3	4	6	9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—
New York Jets	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.9 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (3.0 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	—
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	—
San Diego Chargers	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	4-0 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	—	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	2-2 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	1-3 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.6 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.2 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	—	0-4 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Diego Chargers	13	10.23	+2.77
2	Indianapolis Colts	14	11.58	+2.42
3	Cincinnati Bengals	10	8.02	+1.98
4	Dallas Cowboys	11	9.04	+1.96
5	Green Bay Packers	11	9.40	+1.60

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Washington Redskins	4	6.45	-2.45
2	St. Louis Rams	1	3.31	-2.31
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	9	10.95	-1.95
4	Detroit Lions	2	3.89	-1.89
5	Seattle Seahawks	5	6.85	-1.85

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	New Orleans Saints	13	Sep 13 – Dec 13	1 in 171
2	Indianapolis Colts	14	Sep 13 – Dec 17	1 in 157
3	San Diego Chargers	11	Oct 25 – Jan 3	1 in 100
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4	Sep 20 – Oct 11	1 in 87
5	Denver Broncos	6	Sep 13 – Oct 19	1 in 79

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pittsburgh Steelers	5	Nov 15 – Dec 10	1 in 2,656
2	New Orleans Saints	3	Dec 19 – Jan 3	1 in 167
3	Tennessee Titans	6	Sep 10 – Oct 18	1 in 59
4	Indianapolis Colts	2	Dec 27 – Jan 3	1 in 30
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	Sep 13 – Oct 25	1 in 25

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	65.47%	23.82%	8.58%	2.13%
New York Jets	22.48%	40.04%	25.21%	12.27%
Miami Dolphins	9.20%	25.11%	38.51%	27.18%
Buffalo Bills	2.85%	11.03%	27.70%	58.42%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.80%	37.84%	9.66%	0.70%
Baltimore Ravens	42.11%	43.30%	13.49%	1.10%
Cincinnati Bengals	5.83%	17.69%	64.60%	11.88%
Cleveland Browns	0.26%	1.17%	12.25%	86.32%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	80.90%	14.21%	3.87%	1.02%
Tennessee Titans	8.76%	37.26%	32.64%	21.34%
Houston Texans	7.65%	31.71%	34.50%	26.14%
Jacksonville Jaguars	2.69%	16.82%	28.99%	51.50%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	76.58%	20.27%	2.69%	0.46%
Denver Broncos	20.91%	58.28%	16.56%	4.25%
Oakland Raiders	1.73%	12.65%	45.26%	40.36%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.78%	8.80%	35.49%	54.93%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	58.06%	25.97%	13.14%	2.83%
New York Giants	20.79%	33.83%	32.31%	13.07%
Dallas Cowboys	19.52%	33.27%	34.79%	12.42%
Washington Redskins	1.63%	6.93%	19.76%	71.68%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	66.44%	25.63%	7.67%	0.26%
Green Bay Packers	26.47%	47.55%	24.26%	1.72%
Chicago Bears	7.03%	25.88%	59.75%	7.34%
Detroit Lions	0.06%	0.94%	8.32%	90.68%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	83.37%	14.22%	2.24%	0.17%
Atlanta Falcons	13.19%	56.78%	24.03%	6.00%
Carolina Panthers	3.14%	23.77%	50.77%	22.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.30%	5.23%	22.96%	71.51%

Team	1	2	3	4
Arizona Cardinals	74.28%	19.74%	5.70%	0.28%
San Francisco 49ers	16.80%	46.31%	33.21%	3.68%
Seattle Seahawks	8.84%	32.03%	50.74%	8.39%
St. Louis Rams	0.08%	1.92%	10.35%	87.65%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Indianapolis Colts	32.75%	23.17%	14.77%	10.04%	6.05%	5.02%	2.96%	2.07%	1.08%	0.92%	0.54%	0.32%	0.19%	0.07%	0.05%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.52%	18.51%	14.63%	12.48%	10.62%	7.49%	5.55%	3.81%	2.37%	1.88%	1.10%	0.45%	0.26%	0.17%	0.10%	0.06%
Baltimore Ravens	15.43%	14.76%	13.55%	13.45%	11.88%	10.00%	6.81%	4.80%	3.47%	2.55%	1.73%	0.88%	0.42%	0.21%	0.05%	0.01%
San Diego Chargers	11.19%	13.72%	16.81%	15.02%	11.76%	8.73%	6.89%	5.48%	4.15%	2.35%	1.62%	1.04%	0.59%	0.38%	0.20%	0.07%
New England Patriots	11.89%	14.28%	15.90%	14.47%	11.22%	8.66%	6.92%	5.47%	3.88%	2.69%	1.78%	1.47%	0.77%	0.33%	0.23%	0.04%
New York Jets	1.91%	3.88%	6.37%	7.67%	8.89%	10.43%	11.12%	10.45%	8.69%	7.86%	6.96%	5.64%	4.18%	3.24%	1.94%	0.77%
Tennessee Titans	1.85%	2.62%	3.85%	5.82%	8.39%	9.98%	10.61%	9.61%	10.27%	9.41%	8.31%	6.81%	5.48%	3.74%	2.29%	0.96%
Denver Broncos	1.11%	2.41%	3.69%	5.14%	6.74%	7.86%	10.14%	12.49%	11.25%	10.10%	8.50%	7.44%	5.33%	3.69%	2.51%	1.60%
Houston Texans	1.30%	2.32%	3.09%	5.20%	7.15%	8.92%	9.82%	9.64%	9.63%	9.23%	9.51%	8.00%	6.63%	4.90%	3.54%	1.12%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.20%	1.79%	3.08%	4.08%	6.62%	7.28%	8.85%	10.44%	12.48%	13.39%	11.33%	7.70%	5.02%	3.50%	2.35%	0.89%
Miami Dolphins	0.60%	1.50%	2.33%	3.17%	4.99%	6.21%	7.32%	8.29%	9.56%	10.37%	10.74%	10.07%	8.54%	7.35%	6.18%	2.78%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.17%	0.68%	1.19%	1.93%	2.99%	5.02%	6.34%	7.44%	8.31%	10.05%	10.43%	11.51%	11.43%	10.09%	8.07%	4.35%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%	0.22%	0.53%	1.00%	1.76%	2.36%	3.36%	4.49%	6.28%	7.67%	10.03%	10.90%	13.68%	13.80%	13.89%	9.97%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%	0.06%	0.12%	0.23%	0.41%	1.08%	1.52%	2.26%	3.57%	4.25%	6.28%	10.68%	13.45%	15.73%	17.73%	22.62%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.06%	0.06%	0.20%	0.26%	0.56%	0.95%	1.58%	2.78%	3.91%	5.84%	8.99%	12.68%	18.01%	21.39%	22.72%
Kansas City Chiefs	—	0.02%	0.03%	0.10%	0.27%	0.40%	0.84%	1.68%	2.23%	3.37%	5.30%	8.10%	11.35%	14.79%	19.48%	32.04%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New Orleans Saints	29.04%	21.84%	17.26%	11.71%	7.06%	4.92%	3.19%	2.12%	1.36%	0.65%	0.52%	0.17%	0.08%	0.05%	0.03%	—
Minnesota Vikings	19.48%	18.85%	16.05%	12.53%	9.21%	7.61%	5.70%	3.88%	2.57%	2.14%	0.95%	0.67%	0.27%	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	21.45%	17.14%	14.08%	10.99%	10.23%	7.62%	5.70%	3.99%	3.48%	2.16%	1.48%	1.00%	0.45%	0.17%	0.06%	—
Arizona Cardinals	9.70%	12.66%	14.62%	16.75%	11.16%	9.34%	7.32%	6.46%	4.29%	3.25%	1.93%	1.37%	0.79%	0.22%	0.11%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	5.71%	7.51%	9.30%	10.10%	11.38%	11.84%	11.30%	8.72%	7.06%	6.15%	4.88%	3.41%	1.48%	0.73%	0.34%	0.09%
New York Giants	5.79%	6.92%	7.49%	8.53%	10.97%	10.63%	9.86%	8.79%	8.53%	7.46%	5.71%	4.04%	3.19%	1.35%	0.54%	0.20%
Dallas Cowboys	4.02%	5.91%	7.48%	8.87%	10.78%	10.35%	10.09%	9.63%	9.51%	7.64%	5.92%	4.37%	3.34%	1.40%	0.54%	0.15%
Atlanta Falcons	2.66%	3.80%	5.12%	6.92%	9.40%	11.20%	11.75%	10.91%	9.77%	7.65%	7.81%	5.57%	3.90%	2.38%	0.99%	0.17%
San Francisco 49ers	0.53%	1.82%	3.11%	4.83%	5.74%	7.51%	9.31%	11.74%	11.55%	10.80%	10.47%	9.55%	6.97%	3.80%	1.52%	0.75%
Chicago Bears	0.91%	1.80%	2.59%	3.66%	5.67%	7.02%	8.39%	10.17%	11.59%	12.85%	12.17%	9.73%	6.94%	3.86%	1.94%	0.71%
Seattle Seahawks	0.17%	0.73%	1.21%	2.25%	2.99%	4.24%	6.56%	8.69%	9.98%	10.68%	12.51%	14.86%	12.19%	6.87%	4.15%	1.92%
Carolina Panthers	0.40%	0.66%	0.96%	1.62%	3.20%	4.14%	5.67%	7.39%	9.06%	11.57%	12.92%	12.86%	12.07%	9.51%	5.57%	2.40%
Washington Redskins	0.13%	0.30%	0.65%	1.03%	1.73%	2.75%	3.60%	4.91%	7.22%	9.46%	11.44%	14.57%	18.85%	13.07%	7.32%	2.97%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.06%	0.05%	0.18%	0.37%	0.70%	1.24%	1.77%	2.84%	4.71%	6.44%	9.28%	14.05%	22.09%	22.40%	13.81%
Detroit Lions	—	—	0.03%	0.01%	0.09%	0.05%	0.23%	0.55%	0.70%	1.78%	2.71%	5.00%	9.28%	20.81%	29.96%	28.80%
St. Louis Rams	—	—	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.08%	0.09%	0.28%	0.49%	1.05%	2.14%	3.55%	6.15%	13.63%	24.51%	47.99%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Indianapolis Colts	18.30%	15.30%	11.73%	10.59%	7.56%	6.88%	5.26%	4.86%	3.51%	2.81%	2.62%	2.35%	1.87%	1.19%	1.24%	0.86%	0.74%	0.51%	0.46%	0.36%	0.32%	0.22%	0.13%	0.10%	0.08%	0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.03%	—	—	—
New Orleans Saints	15.20%	14.13%	11.57%	10.30%	8.83%	7.94%	6.01%	5.73%	3.53%	3.38%	2.51%	2.75%	1.67%	1.53%	1.08%	1.05%	0.67%	0.62%	0.36%	0.32%	0.25%	0.26%	0.08%	0.10%	0.02%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.16%	9.91%	9.87%	8.27%	7.93%	7.40%	6.73%	5.93%	4.96%	4.88%	3.91%	3.43%	3.01%	2.54%	2.11%	1.80%	1.37%	1.17%	0.87%	0.67%	0.70%	0.46%	0.23%	0.17%	0.11%	0.16%	0.08%	0.04%	0.07%	0.05%	0.01%	—
Minnesota Vikings	9.72%	9.96%	9.39%	9.48%	8.08%	7.66%	6.37%	6.01%	4.93%	4.59%	4.23%	3.48%	2.93%	3.00%	2.00%	1.64%	1.33%	1.18%	1.05%	0.88%	0.55%	0.51%	0.26%	0.32%	0.18%	0.18%	0.05%	0.02%	—	0.01%	0.01%	—
Philadelphia Eagles	10.49%	10.16%	8.64%	8.88%	7.81%	6.83%	6.22%	5.44%	5.32%	4.70%	4.30%	3.44%	2.96%	2.60%	2.30%	1.71%	1.69%	1.57%	1.19%	0.94%	0.74%	0.70%	0.42%	0.38%	0.17%	0.18%	0.10%	0.08%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	—
Baltimore Ravens	7.68%	7.61%	7.95%	7.32%	6.97%	6.97%	6.99%	6.32%	6.31%	5.39%	4.74%	4.80%	3.72%	3.28%	2.83%	2.11%	1.73%	1.58%	1.37%	1.18%	0.82%	0.79%	0.50%	0.42%	0.27%	0.14%	0.13%	0.04%	0.04%	—	—	—
New England Patriots	5.81%	6.24%	7.30%	7.04%	7.68%	7.39%	7.03%	7.09%	6.14%	5.16%	4.80%	4.23%	3.77%	3.25%	3.11%	2.69%	2.30%	1.79%	1.58%	1.22%	1.12%	0.77%	0.76%	0.50%	0.49%	0.25%	0.17%	0.18%	0.09%	0.02%	0.03%	—
San Diego Chargers	6.12%	5.42%	6.90%	7.05%	7.79%	7.80%	6.94%	7.25%	5.64%	5.89%	4.62%	4.77%	3.78%	3.66%	2.62%	2.90%	2.21%	1.96%	1.33%	1.40%	1.00%	0.83%	0.59%	0.37%	0.41%	0.23%	0.20%	0.14%	0.09%	0.06%	0.01%	0.02%
Arizona Cardinals	4.59%	5.44%	6.01%	6.49%	7.35%	7.17%	6.92%	8.10%	5.61%	5.78%	5.00%	5.12%	3.73%	3.83%	3.24%	3.07%	2.28%	2.26%	1.73%	1.68%	1.12%	0.96%	0.60%	0.63%	0.42%	0.42%	0.10%	0.21%	0.06%	0.05%	—	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	2.47%	3.07%	4.07%	4.03%	4.89%	4.72%	5.48%	4.59%	5.35%	6.18%	5.83%	5.68%	5.78%	5.24%	4.32%	4.52%	3.30%	3.62%	3.01%	2.96%	2.49%	2.04%	1.75%	1.75%	0.85%	0.77%	0.40%	0.39%	0.22%	0.13%	0.05%	0.05%
New York Giants	2.40%	3.04%	3.23%	3.57%	4.26%	3.81%	4.70%	4.52%	5.87%	5.33%	5.33%	4.99%	5.17%	4.75%	4.89%	4.27%	4.11%	4.21%	3.75%	3.28%	2.70%	2.82%	2.18%	1.92%	1.53%	1.11%	0.86%	0.65%	0.33%	0.22%	0.11%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	1.57%	2.29%	2.85%	3.09%	3.55%	4.26%	4.63%	4.84%	5.30%	5.70%	5.34%	4.98%	4.77%	4.75%	5.23%	4.81%	4.73%	4.58%	3.71%	3.83%	3.04%	2.71%	2.19%	2.11%	1.46%	1.33%	0.84%	0.76%	0.31%	0.24%	0.12%	0.08%
Atlanta Falcons	1.03%	1.38%	1.77%	2.18%	2.34%	3.08%	3.87%	3.69%	4.53%	4.87%	4.99%	5.56%	5.44%	5.75%	5.34%	5.30%	4.96%	4.48%	4.31%	3.60%	4.13%	3.33%	3.34%	2.96%	2.07%	1.81%	1.53%	1.03%	0.60%	0.46%	0.23%	0.04%
New York Jets	0.69%	1.15%	1.91%	2.18%	2.69%	3.43%	3.44%	4.20%	4.31%	4.49%	4.99%	5.39%	5.35%	5.45%	5.24%	5.10%	5.05%	4.06%	4.80%	3.54%	4.18%	3.02%	3.31%	2.56%	2.48%	1.85%	1.80%	1.33%	1.07%	0.50%	0.27%	0.17%
Tennessee Titans	0.63%	1.08%	1.23%	1.52%	1.98%	2.08%	2.75%	3.28%	4.08%	3.97%	5.17%	4.57%	5.53%	4.99%	5.23%	4.86%	5.50%	4.84%	5.01%	4.67%	4.48%	3.90%	3.83%	3.20%	3.09%	2.43%	2.13%	1.48%	1.25%	0.77%	0.32%	0.15%
Denver Broncos	0.36%	0.58%	1.04%	1.24%	1.75%	1.73%	2.65%	2.44%	3.30%	3.41%	3.83%	4.11%	4.69%	4.96%	5.53%	6.38%	4.72%	6.45%	5.01%	5.75%	4.36%	4.42%	4.19%	3.77%	3.06%	2.87%	2.30%	1.44%	1.72%	0.86%	0.88%	0.20%
Houston Texans	0.52%	0.83%	0.86%	1.34%	1.36%	2.04%	2.53%	2.71%	3.55%	3.63%	4.32%	4.56%	5.19%	4.80%	5.05%	4.55%	5.38%	4.61%	4.91%	4.60%	5.36%	4.27%	4.32%	3.75%	3.94%	2.60%	2.99%	2.07%	1.57%	0.96%	0.61%	0.22%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.37%	0.67%	0.84%	1.04%	1.53%	1.82%	2.16%	2.28%	3.06%	3.58%	3.55%	3.85%	4.62%	4.77%	5.22%	5.07%	6.32%	6.30%	6.17%	6.46%	5.58%	5.39%	4.45%	3.59%	3.01%	2.33%	1.97%	1.39%	1.29%	0.82%	0.41%	0.09%
San Francisco 49ers	0.18%	0.36%	0.64%	1.02%	1.24%	1.75%	2.16%	2.52%	2.76%	3.11%	3.65%	3.89%	4.27%	5.01%	5.16%	6.19%	5.27%	5.76%	5.06%	5.82%	4.94%	5.23%	4.24%	5.20%	3.42%	3.69%	2.38%	2.04%	1.25%	0.95%	0.51%	0.33%
Chicago Bears	0.28%	0.47%	0.72%	1.05%	1.26%	1.46%	1.94%	1.93%	2.78%	2.97%	3.53%	3.66%	3.95%	4.63%	4.81%	5.18%	5.69%	5.77%	5.87%	6.26%	5.28%	6.09%	4.70%	4.96%	3.48%	3.85%	2.31%	1.96%	1.25%	1.07%	0.59%	0.25%
Miami Dolphins	0.17%	0.37%	0.54%	0.83%	1.13%	1.10%	1.49%	1.82%	2.44%	2.23%	2.92%	3.36%	3.36%	3.70%	4.29%	4.30%	4.98%	5.00%	5.51%	5.24%	5.66%	5.25%	5.39%	4.66%	4.98%	4.22%	3.89%	3.49%	3.37%	2.16%	1.30%	0.85%
Seattle Seahawks	0.05%	0.15%	0.20%	0.43%	0.41%	0.65%	0.80%	1.26%	1.32%	1.88%	2.01%	2.14%	3.02%	3.53%	3.99%	4.44%	4.45%	4.96%	5.03%	5.92%	5.65%	6.50%	6.20%	7.06%	5.69%	6.53%	4.49%	3.81%	2.67%	2.38%	1.41%	0.97%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.04%	0.13%	0.22%	0.38%	0.54%	0.58%	1.02%	1.00%	1.62%	1.72%	2.14%	2.47%	2.98%	3.31%	3.66%	3.96%	4.73%	4.41%	5.23%	4.80%	5.88%	5.16%	6.66%	5.47%	6.44%	5.28%	5.52%	4.39%	4.06%	2.98%	2.25%	0.97%
Carolina Panthers	0.13%	0.20%	0.27%	0.31%	0.44%	0.67%	0.77%	0.82%	1.55%	1.66%	1.97%	2.09%	2.81%	2.92%	3.55%	3.87%	4.36%	4.45%	5.21%	5.66%	5.88%	6.29%	6.04%	6.45%	5.88%	6.04%	4.84%	5.06%	3.49%	3.22%	1.85%	1.25%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.03%	0.14%	0.19%	0.24%	0.36%	0.48%	0.52%	0.97%	1.02%	1.31%	1.42%	1.77%	2.22%	2.27%	2.75%	3.50%	3.95%	4.76%	4.77%	5.12%	6.52%	6.56%	7.66%	7.94%	8.61%	6.40%	6.29%	4.31%	3.98%	2.32%	1.61%
Buffalo Bills	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%	0.13%	0.23%	0.29%	0.38%	0.47%	0.74%	1.02%	1.13%	1.19%	1.65%	1.89%	2.19%	2.34%	3.19%	3.30%	3.97%	3.88%	5.05%	5.54%	5.76%	5.69%	7.93%	6.62%	7.38%	6.89%	7.24%	5.93%	5.05%	2.84%
Oakland Raiders	—	—	0.04%	0.01%	0.05%	0.06%	0.06%	0.14%	0.18%	0.14%	0.45%	0.57%	0.68%	0.81%	0.92%	1.22%	1.42%	1.73%	2.25%	2.39%	3.07%	3.62%	4.92%	5.63%	6.38%	7.69%	8.59%	8.74%	10.62%	9.40%	11.01%	7.21%
Cleveland Browns	—	—	0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.02%	0.11%	0.06%	0.10%	0.17%	0.24%	0.42%	0.52%	0.49%	0.80%	0.75%	1.28%	1.54%	1.83%	2.12%	3.48%	3.49%	4.74%	5.09%	6.31%	7.28%	10.01%	9.08%	11.17%	10.04%	11.30%	7.47%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.05%	0.03%	0.05%	0.12%	0.15%	0.16%	0.31%	0.45%	0.51%	0.53%	0.86%	1.03%	1.42%	1.37%	2.04%	2.31%	2.73%	3.38%	4.35%	4.75%	6.00%	7.42%	8.34%	11.06%	9.68%	12.44%	9.25%	9.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	—	—	—	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	0.09%	0.15%	0.19%	0.16%	0.39%	0.47%	0.53%	0.90%	0.95%	1.20%	1.53%	1.95%	2.53%	3.00%	3.91%	4.24%	5.53%	6.32%	8.74%	8.14%	11.58%	10.75%	14.62%	12.03%
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.03%	0.01%	—	0.03%	0.06%	0.06%	0.06%	0.11%	0.26%	0.25%	0.26%	0.43%	0.67%	1.08%	0.97%	1.35%	2.18%	2.80%	4.01%	4.50%	7.03%	10.30%	12.11%	15.46%	16.44%	19.54%
St. Louis Rams	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.02%	—	—	0.01%	0.06%	0.05%	0.04%	0.13%	0.13%	0.11%	0.34%	0.42%	0.46%	0.82%	1.18%	1.22%	1.74%	2.37%	3.20%	4.38%	7.45%	8.41%	14.07%	19.03%	34.36%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Indianapolis Colts	32.75%	24.51%	15.36%	8.28%	5.36%	5.21%	8.53%
Pittsburgh Steelers	20.52%	16.95%	9.55%	4.78%	20.96%	10.56%	16.68%
Baltimore Ravens	15.43%	13.19%	8.86%	4.63%	22.80%	12.92%	22.17%
New England Patriots	11.89%	15.20%	19.94%	18.44%	5.06%	6.63%	22.84%
San Diego Chargers	11.19%	14.38%	21.52%	29.49%	2.38%	3.46%	17.58%
New York Jets	1.91%	4.07%	7.68%	8.82%	6.45%	10.04%	61.03%
Tennessee Titans	1.85%	2.38%	2.70%	1.83%	9.82%	12.00%	69.42%
Houston Texans	1.30%	2.32%	2.18%	1.85%	7.87%	10.71%	73.77%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.20%	1.65%	1.80%	1.18%	7.56%	8.48%	78.13%
Denver Broncos	1.11%	2.62%	5.30%	11.88%	3.72%	5.39%	69.98%
Miami Dolphins	0.60%	1.63%	3.03%	3.94%	3.82%	5.47%	81.51%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.17%	0.65%	0.96%	0.91%	2.83%	5.40%	89.08%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%	0.31%	0.74%	1.74%	0.95%	2.18%	94.02%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%	0.05%	0.20%	1.47%	0.16%	0.67%	97.44%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.07%	0.07%	0.11%	0.20%	0.55%	98.99%
Kansas City Chiefs	—	0.02%	0.11%	0.65%	0.06%	0.33%	98.83%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New Orleans Saints	29.04%	22.61%	19.79%	11.93%	4.63%	4.12%	7.88%
Philadelphia Eagles	21.45%	16.82%	12.81%	6.98%	13.37%	8.96%	19.61%
Minnesota Vikings	19.48%	19.28%	16.14%	11.54%	9.02%	8.24%	16.30%
Arizona Cardinals	9.70%	13.29%	18.27%	33.02%	2.17%	3.33%	20.22%
New York Giants	5.79%	6.16%	5.71%	3.13%	15.04%	12.49%	51.68%
Green Bay Packers	5.71%	7.46%	7.39%	5.91%	13.86%	14.42%	45.25%
Dallas Cowboys	4.02%	5.41%	6.32%	3.77%	14.16%	11.99%	54.33%
Atlanta Falcons	2.66%	3.42%	3.92%	3.19%	12.37%	12.24%	62.20%
Chicago Bears	0.91%	1.90%	2.16%	2.06%	5.93%	7.51%	79.53%
San Francisco 49ers	0.53%	1.90%	4.08%	10.29%	3.14%	5.88%	74.18%
Carolina Panthers	0.40%	0.62%	0.93%	1.19%	2.96%	4.36%	89.54%
Seattle Seahawks	0.17%	0.74%	1.73%	6.20%	1.16%	3.13%	86.87%
Washington Redskins	0.13%	0.31%	0.65%	0.54%	1.84%	2.57%	93.96%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.07%	0.07%	0.15%	0.32%	0.65%	98.73%
Detroit Lions	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	0.06%	99.85%
St. Louis Rams	—	—	0.01%	0.07%	—	0.05%	99.87%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	79.88%	79.88%	51.15%	31.79%	17.57%
Indianapolis Colts	79.86%	79.86%	46.96%	26.82%	14.71%
San Diego Chargers	66.81%	66.81%	39.52%	23.11%	13.17%
Philadelphia Eagles	63.93%	63.93%	36.56%	18.91%	9.50%
New England Patriots	57.90%	57.90%	29.61%	14.95%	7.12%
Minnesota Vikings	64.94%	64.94%	33.06%	15.80%	6.90%
Pittsburgh Steelers	60.03%	60.03%	28.95%	12.93%	5.91%
Baltimore Ravens	52.58%	52.58%	25.38%	11.25%	5.04%
Green Bay Packers	41.58%	36.49%	18.80%	9.27%	4.58%
Dallas Cowboys	36.24%	30.06%	16.28%	8.41%	4.57%
Arizona Cardinals	56.79%	51.94%	19.48%	7.35%	2.98%
New York Jets	32.99%	23.15%	10.55%	4.55%	2.22%
Atlanta Falcons	31.72%	19.46%	7.92%	3.28%	1.37%
Houston Texans	22.61%	12.53%	4.72%	1.88%	0.87%
New York Giants	36.37%	24.05%	7.82%	2.32%	0.84%
Tennessee Titans	26.35%	13.88%	5.09%	1.91%	0.79%
San Francisco 49ers	23.39%	11.16%	3.53%	0.96%	0.39%
Denver Broncos	26.29%	11.96%	3.19%	0.88%	0.35%
Carolina Panthers	9.44%	5.23%	2.16%	0.97%	0.34%
Cincinnati Bengals	19.02%	8.70%	2.71%	0.74%	0.26%
Miami Dolphins	16.26%	6.98%	2.21%	0.73%	0.25%
Chicago Bears	17.66%	7.76%	2.22%	0.69%	0.20%
Jacksonville Jaguars	10.10%	2.85%	0.60%	0.11%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	5.61%	1.71%	0.35%	0.11%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns	0.93%	0.25%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	12.22%	3.23%	0.62%	0.12%	0.01%
Washington Redskins	5.60%	1.54%	0.34%	0.11%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.15%	0.28%	0.08%	0.01%	—
Oakland Raiders	2.50%	0.53%	0.05%	0.01%	—
Detroit Lions	0.14%	0.02%	—	—	—
St. Louis Rams	0.13%	0.02%	—	—	—
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.19%	0.29%	0.06%	0.02%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.58%	1.03%	0.05%	3.15%	1.43%	1.59%	0.72%	0.18%	1.52%	3.33%	2.09%	0.39%	3.15%	3.39%	1.36%
Buffalo Bills	0.18%		0.11%		0.09%	0.12%	0.12%	0.08%	0.01%	0.06%	0.15%	0.07%	0.03%	0.18%	0.09%	0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.48%	0.17%		0.01%	0.73%	0.20%	0.54%	0.22%	0.02%	0.40%	0.81%	0.45%	0.08%	0.55%	0.84%	0.35%
Cleveland Browns			0.01%		0.02%	0.02%	0.02%			0.03%		0.02%		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	1.42%	0.21%	0.52%	0.05%		0.53%	0.39%	0.41%	0.01%	0.59%	0.64%	0.63%	0.07%	1.31%	0.73%	0.72%
Houston Texans	0.82%	0.21%	0.33%	0.03%	0.85%		1.04%	0.12%	0.06%	0.62%	1.54%	0.70%	0.07%	0.93%	1.41%	0.18%
Indianapolis Colts	2.98%	0.44%	1.71%	0.11%	1.64%	1.90%		1.34%	0.09%	1.55%	2.03%	2.24%	0.18%	2.48%	1.37%	2.54%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.29%	0.03%	0.12%	0.01%	0.22%	0.04%	0.20%			0.13%	0.27%	0.18%	0.06%	0.23%	0.24%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%			0.05%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.03%	0.02%		0.04%	0.01%	0.03%
Miami Dolphins	0.60%	0.05%	0.35%	0.02%	0.52%	0.23%	0.28%	0.16%	0.05%		0.63%	0.27%	0.06%	0.67%	0.42%	0.44%
New England Patriots	4.43%	0.81%	2.61%	0.18%	2.20%	2.89%	1.84%	1.60%	0.13%	1.71%		3.40%	0.17%	4.17%	1.30%	3.37%
New York Jets	2.68%	0.23%	1.05%	0.05%	1.31%	1.24%	1.26%	0.77%	0.07%	0.68%	2.67%		0.17%	1.88%	1.64%	1.47%
Oakland Raiders	0.10%		0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.05%	0.01%	0.02%		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%		0.09%	0.02%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.31%	0.58%	1.17%	0.08%	2.85%	1.17%	1.43%	0.74%	0.12%	1.40%	2.78%	2.02%	0.40%		2.86%	1.65%
San Diego Chargers	7.07%	0.70%	3.72%	0.15%	3.41%	3.62%	1.89%	1.77%	0.11%	2.00%	2.67%	2.98%	0.25%	6.44%		4.46%
Tennessee Titans	0.86%	0.25%	0.37%	0.01%	1.06%	0.21%	0.99%	0.11%	0.04%	0.79%	1.70%	0.73%	0.10%	1.15%	1.28%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		3.72%	0.95%	2.57%	2.95%	0.02%	3.44%	2.53%	0.97%	4.95%	2.39%	1.98%	1.32%	0.04%	0.28%	0.84%
Atlanta Falcons	3.37%		0.10%	0.51%	0.85%		0.93%	1.38%	1.30%	1.43%	1.32%	1.06%	0.85%	0.02%	0.04%	0.22%
Carolina Panthers	0.67%	0.09%		0.16%	0.29%		0.30%	0.75%	0.41%	0.53%	0.42%	0.33%	0.15%	0.01%		0.10%
Chicago Bears	1.05%	0.37%	0.11%		0.30%		0.21%	0.70%	0.26%	0.67%	0.40%	0.51%	0.29%			0.08%
Dallas Cowboys	4.32%	1.37%	0.34%	1.12%		0.02%	1.66%	2.47%	2.11%	1.59%	2.48%	1.76%	1.09%		0.05%	0.25%
Detroit Lions												0.01%
Green Bay Packers	4.90%	1.71%	0.43%	0.97%	1.71%	0.03%		3.58%	1.90%	2.26%	2.04%	1.85%	1.53%		0.08%	0.33%
Minnesota Vikings	2.93%	2.80%	0.67%	2.12%	2.50%	0.01%	3.76%		1.62%	3.33%	2.23%	2.05%	1.36%		0.14%	0.66%
New Orleans Saints	2.06%	3.55%	1.24%	2.08%	3.08%	0.01%	3.25%	2.39%		4.35%	2.50%	1.76%	0.95%		0.17%	0.84%
New York Giants	2.63%	1.01%	0.23%	0.83%	0.64%	0.01%	0.94%	1.31%	1.13%		1.32%	0.97%	0.86%	0.01%	0.06%	0.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	3.77%	2.57%	0.91%	1.49%	2.36%	0.02%	2.52%	2.47%	1.80%	3.48%		2.23%	1.20%	0.03%	0.12%	0.69%
San Francisco 49ers	1.52%	0.80%	0.14%	0.58%	0.70%	0.01%	0.90%	0.88%	0.51%	1.14%	1.00%		0.25%		0.03%	0.27%
Seattle Seahawks	0.30%	0.28%	0.08%	0.22%	0.20%		0.25%	0.14%	0.07%	0.42%	0.23%	0.05%			0.01%	0.07%
St. Louis Rams	0.01%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%			0.01%	0.01%		0.02%	0.03%	0.04%	0.03%	0.02%	0.03%
Washington Redskins	0.29%	0.06%	0.03%	0.05%	0.02%		0.08%	0.13%	0.12%	0.09%	0.11%	0.07%	0.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.23%	0.63%		1.38%	0.98%	4.64%	0.31%	0.03%	0.76%	4.23%	1.61%	0.13%	4.95%	4.32%	1.18%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%		0.02%		0.03%	0.01%	0.08%	0.01%			0.02%			0.07%	0.03%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.30%	0.01%			0.12%	0.04%	0.54%	0.05%		0.08%	0.44%	0.19%		0.48%	0.36%	0.10%
Cleveland Browns											0.01%			0.01%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.60%	0.03%	0.07%			0.09%	0.53%	0.07%		0.08%	0.58%	0.17%		0.61%	0.24%	0.12%
Houston Texans	0.66%	0.02%	0.10%		0.18%		1.12%	0.01%		0.08%	0.68%	0.20%		0.87%	0.73%	0.07%
Indianapolis Colts	6.42%	0.39%	1.64%	0.07%	2.59%	2.01%		0.66%	0.08%	1.58%	9.12%	3.87%	0.15%	7.14%	8.69%	2.55%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.06%		0.02%		0.02%		0.10%			0.02%	0.07%			0.17%	0.12%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.02%						0.01%			0.01%	0.01%			0.03%
Miami Dolphins	0.39%		0.06%		0.12%	0.11%	0.54%				0.17%	0.02%	0.01%	0.36%	0.32%	0.11%
New England Patriots	4.50%	0.05%	1.11%	0.03%	1.23%	1.32%	7.22%	0.37%	0.05%	0.38%		1.21%	0.08%	5.47%	5.15%	1.44%
New York Jets	1.46%	0.02%	0.18%	0.02%	0.54%	0.31%	2.96%	0.15%		0.05%	0.86%		0.01%	2.22%	1.36%	0.41%
Oakland Raiders			0.01%				0.03%				0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.38%	0.34%	0.80%	0.02%	1.58%	1.42%	4.81%	0.23%	0.02%	0.77%	4.47%	2.48%	0.10%		5.35%	1.18%
San Diego Chargers	6.44%	0.26%	1.20%	0.07%	0.79%	1.42%	8.99%	0.39%	0.02%	0.88%	7.01%	2.65%		7.80%		1.60%
Tennessee Titans	0.90%	0.01%	0.15%	0.01%	0.19%	0.10%	1.33%			0.08%	0.61%	0.20%		0.90%	0.61%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		1.05%	0.33%	0.69%	1.54%		1.96%	4.38%	3.85%	1.84%	3.42%	0.24%	0.04%		0.03%	0.11%
Atlanta Falcons	1.28%		0.04%	0.18%	0.57%	0.01%	0.60%	1.57%	1.51%	0.38%	1.48%	0.18%	0.09%			0.03%
Carolina Panthers	0.39%	0.05%		0.07%	0.08%		0.19%	0.41%	0.34%	0.22%	0.30%	0.06%	0.04%			0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.47%	0.11%	0.06%		0.09%		0.09%	0.34%	0.41%	0.17%	0.33%	0.11%	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	2.69%	0.88%	0.13%	0.45%			1.16%	3.36%	3.28%	0.94%	2.71%	0.46%	0.17%		0.01%	0.04%
Green Bay Packers	3.19%	0.97%	0.21%	0.23%	1.26%			3.50%	4.15%	1.54%	2.89%	0.55%	0.18%		0.04%	0.09%
Minnesota Vikings	6.29%	2.06%	0.47%	1.02%	2.90%		3.05%		6.37%	3.08%	5.50%	1.43%	0.58%	0.01%	0.06%	0.24%
New Orleans Saints	9.75%	3.52%	0.95%	1.55%	4.16%		5.69%	9.14%		4.32%	8.48%	2.43%	0.74%		0.02%	0.40%
New York Giants	1.19%	0.48%	0.11%	0.29%	0.42%		0.78%	1.22%	1.39%		1.39%	0.34%	0.15%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.93%	2.23%	0.72%	0.95%	2.58%	0.01%	3.85%	6.98%	6.39%	3.27%		1.82%	0.59%		0.03%	0.21%
San Francisco 49ers	0.17%	0.14%	0.04%	0.07%	0.13%		0.25%	0.79%	0.88%	0.40%	0.62%		0.01%			0.03%
Seattle Seahawks	0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%		0.06%	0.10%	0.09%	0.06%	0.14%				0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%							0.03%		0.01%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.04%	0.03%		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.06%	0.07%		0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.01%	0.13%		0.32%	0.46%	3.34%	0.03%		0.22%	1.82%	0.80%	0.01%	1.45%	2.34%	0.32%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%					0.01%	0.04%							0.03%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.12%	0.01%			0.01%	0.04%	0.15%			0.02%	0.06%	0.03%		0.08%	0.16%	0.06%
Cleveland Browns															0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.11%					0.02%	0.24%			0.02%	0.11%	0.08%		0.20%	0.05%	0.05%
Houston Texans	0.30%	0.01%	0.03%		0.05%		0.33%		0.02%	0.01%	0.29%	0.14%		0.38%	0.31%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	4.84%	0.09%	0.68%		0.95%	0.51%		0.09%	0.02%	0.41%	4.84%	1.74%		5.69%	6.34%	0.62%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%	0.01%			0.01%		0.03%				0.01%			0.01%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs											0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.14%		0.03%		0.01%	0.03%	0.18%				0.04%	0.03%		0.12%	0.13%	0.02%
New England Patriots	2.51%	0.02%	0.28%	0.01%	0.39%	0.54%	3.86%	0.13%	0.02%	0.09%		0.59%	0.03%	2.83%	3.12%	0.53%
New York Jets	0.78%		0.02%		0.11%	0.09%	0.95%		0.01%	0.04%	0.37%			0.96%	1.11%	0.11%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.29%	0.02%	0.18%		0.27%	0.45%	3.98%	0.09%		0.27%	2.50%	0.87%			2.47%	0.54%
San Diego Chargers	3.60%	0.07%	0.56%	0.01%	0.13%	0.65%	6.73%	0.14%		0.38%	4.35%	1.63%		3.94%		0.92%
Tennessee Titans	0.39%		0.06%		0.06%	0.04%	0.31%	0.01%		0.02%	0.26%	0.09%		0.33%	0.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.58%	0.15%	0.11%	0.67%	0.77%	1.22%	1.88%	0.39%	1.48%	0.06%	0.01%		0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.38%		0.04%	0.06%	0.25%	0.38%	0.68%	0.48%	0.20%	0.69%	0.09%	0.02%		0.01%
Carolina Panthers	0.14%	0.01%			0.01%	0.11%	0.24%	0.15%	0.09%	0.16%	0.04%			0.02%
Chicago Bears	0.06%	0.04%			0.05%	0.01%	0.07%	0.17%	0.07%	0.18%	0.03%			0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.99%	0.41%	0.14%	0.22%		0.81%	1.85%	2.46%	0.36%	0.83%	0.28%	0.05%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	1.03%	0.53%	0.19%	0.07%	0.81%		1.15%	2.61%	0.67%	1.92%	0.26%	0.01%		0.02%
Minnesota Vikings	1.88%	0.84%	0.19%	0.12%	1.53%	1.27%		4.78%	0.98%	3.68%	0.41%	0.07%		0.05%
New Orleans Saints	4.65%	1.07%	0.17%	0.51%	3.35%	3.48%	7.21%		1.93%	8.23%	0.86%	0.24%	0.01%	0.08%
New York Giants	0.26%	0.08%	0.02%	0.07%	0.12%	0.29%	0.43%	0.61%		0.33%	0.09%	0.01%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.66%	1.02%	0.27%	0.34%	1.01%	2.29%	4.13%	5.95%	0.70%		0.44%	0.08%	0.01%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.06%	0.04%	0.02%	0.03%	0.06%	0.09%	0.21%	0.20%	0.11%	0.13%		0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%					0.02%	0.03%	0.04%		0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.01%				0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.01%			0.01%		0.04%	0.03%			0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.35%				0.01%		0.03%		0.06%	0.65%			0.03%		0.47%			0.14%			0.52%	0.68%				0.04%
Atlanta Falcons			0.21%				0.03%		0.03%		0.01%	0.38%	0.01%				0.15%			0.06%			0.20%	0.23%				0.06%
Baltimore Ravens	0.46%	0.16%			0.05%	0.05%		0.32%		0.51%						0.98%		1.31%	0.20%			0.94%			0.04%	0.01%			0.01%
Buffalo Bills										0.01%												0.01%
Carolina Panthers									0.01%			0.06%					0.11%			0.03%			0.07%	0.06%
Chicago Bears			0.05%									0.07%					0.02%			0.02%			0.01%	0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.03%	0.01%			0.02%			0.02%								0.03%		0.10%	0.02%			0.02%			0.01%
Cleveland Browns																0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.55%	0.02%			0.04%		0.04%		0.03%	1.11%	0.01%		0.06%		0.90%			0.19%			0.60%	0.94%				0.08%
Denver Broncos	0.06%	0.02%			0.01%			0.03%		0.01%						0.06%		0.06%	0.01%			0.08%			0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.48%				0.01%		0.04%		0.09%	1.23%	0.01%		0.02%		0.65%			0.31%			0.70%	0.91%				0.13%
Houston Texans	0.06%	0.05%			0.01%	0.02%		0.08%		0.08%						0.13%		0.22%	0.02%			0.19%							0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	1.21%	0.60%			0.21%	0.18%		1.16%		1.33%						2.48%		4.36%	0.40%			2.56%			0.14%	0.06%	0.01%		0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%									0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.05%	0.02%				0.01%		0.01%		0.01%						0.04%		0.04%				0.06%			0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			1.02%	0.02%			0.06%		0.05%		0.16%	1.73%			0.08%		1.12%			0.26%			0.91%	1.35%				0.14%
New England Patriots	0.58%	0.21%			0.09%	0.03%		0.57%		0.65%						1.29%		2.03%	0.15%			1.44%			0.07%		0.01%
New Orleans Saints			2.12%	0.03%			0.22%		0.25%		0.37%	4.26%	0.03%		0.18%		2.62%			0.88%	0.01%		2.52%	3.70%				0.38%
New York Giants			0.18%				0.01%				0.02%	0.21%	0.01%		0.01%		0.14%			0.07%			0.08%	0.09%				0.02%
New York Jets	0.15%	0.07%			0.02%	0.01%		0.18%		0.28%						0.45%		0.60%	0.04%			0.38%			0.02%	0.01%			0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			1.18%	0.02%			0.10%		0.08%		0.26%	2.31%	0.02%	0.01%	0.09%		1.63%			0.33%			1.37%	1.85%				0.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.68%	0.25%			0.04%	0.07%		0.44%		0.47%						1.00%		1.54%	0.21%			1.11%			0.08%	0.02%
San Diego Chargers	1.00%	0.52%			0.17%	0.12%		0.99%		1.24%						2.29%		3.77%	0.39%			2.46%			0.17%	0.01%			0.04%
San Francisco 49ers			0.07%									0.10%			0.01%		0.02%			0.04%			0.04%	0.09%				0.02%
Seattle Seahawks											0.01%
Tennessee Titans	0.08%				0.01%			0.04%		0.09%						0.14%		0.19%	0.04%			0.16%			0.02%				0.02%
Washington Redskins																								0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New Orleans Saints	100.00%	62.91%	39.44%	20.31%	Won Super Bowl
Indianapolis Colts	100.00%	65.43%	36.14%	18.32%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
San Diego Chargers	100.00%	64.69%	34.00%	17.50%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	100.00%	51.15%	20.69%	9.19%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	57.04%	30.18%	14.82%	7.80%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	61.37%	23.85%	12.08%	6.36%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	56.64%	24.59%	11.23%	5.33%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Philadelphia Eagles	42.96%	17.81%	9.32%	4.80%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	58.24%	21.17%	8.79%	4.24%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Baltimore Ravens	38.63%	14.92%	6.17%	3.06%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Arizona Cardinals	43.36%	13.36%	4.50%	2.02%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	41.76%	9.94%	2.82%	1.07%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	New England Patriots	New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens			38.63%
Cincinnati Bengals				41.76%
New England Patriots	61.37%
New York Jets		58.24%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals			43.36%
Dallas Cowboys				57.04%
Green Bay Packers	56.64%
Philadelphia Eagles		42.96%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens			14.92%
Cincinnati Bengals			6.39%			3.55%
Indianapolis Colts	23.71%	19.52%			22.20%
New England Patriots						23.85%
New York Jets			13.26%			7.91%
San Diego Chargers		12.30%		37.52%	14.87%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals				6.49%	6.87%
Dallas Cowboys				30.18%
Green Bay Packers				12.18%	12.41%
Minnesota Vikings	12.03%	26.86%	12.26%
New Orleans Saints	17.97%		19.79%			25.15%
Philadelphia Eagles					17.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	New York Jets	San Diego Chargers
Baltimore Ravens		0.80%			1.31%	4.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.46%		0.57%	0.76%		1.03%
Indianapolis Colts		1.72%		9.12%	2.86%	22.44%
New England Patriots		1.59%	7.29%		3.20%
New York Jets	1.67%		2.07%	1.89%		3.16%
San Diego Chargers	6.62%	3.01%	19.36%		5.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles
Arizona Cardinals		1.24%		1.09%	0.99%	1.18%
Dallas Cowboys	2.46%		3.81%		8.55%
Green Bay Packers		2.65%		3.13%	2.86%	2.59%
Minnesota Vikings	2.08%		2.82%		11.07%	4.72%
New Orleans Saints	2.71%	11.47%	4.32%	20.94%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.61%		2.41%	5.30%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	San Diego Chargers
Arizona Cardinals		0.15%	0.06%			0.69%		0.23%		0.22%		0.67%
Baltimore Ravens	0.21%			0.50%	0.34%		0.72%		1.03%		0.26%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.07%			0.15%	0.16%		0.24%		0.37%		0.08%
Dallas Cowboys		0.46%	0.25%			2.57%		0.98%		0.78%		2.76%
Green Bay Packers		0.49%	0.21%			1.82%		0.62%		0.47%		1.72%
Indianapolis Colts	0.83%			2.57%	2.12%		4.30%		6.78%		1.72%
Minnesota Vikings		0.43%	0.33%			3.55%		0.96%		0.77%		3.15%
New England Patriots	0.37%			0.85%	0.79%		1.25%		2.53%		0.57%
New Orleans Saints		1.27%	0.70%			7.51%		2.32%		1.84%		6.67%
New York Jets	0.11%			0.53%	0.58%		1.02%		1.59%		0.41%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.31%	0.20%			1.68%		0.61%		0.47%		1.53%
San Diego Chargers	0.89%			2.42%	1.91%		3.97%		6.83%		1.48%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

New Orleans Saints 20.31% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

39.98%

Win Prob

58.54%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

53.09%

Win Prob

65.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

36.98%

Win Prob

52.55%

Indianapolis Colts 18.32% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

36.24%

Win Prob

61.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

62.09%

Win Prob

53.68%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.01%

Win Prob

47.45%

San Diego Chargers 17.50% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

58.00%

Win Prob

61.14%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

56.94%

Win Prob

46.32%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

39.03%

Win Prob

50.59%

Minnesota Vikings 9.19% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

52.51%

Win Prob

47.09%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

53.50%

Win Prob

34.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

38.63%

Win Prob

45.22%

Dallas Cowboys 7.80% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.04%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.91%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

57.69%

Win Prob

42.71%

→

Super Bowl

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

35.38%

Win Prob

53.28%

New England Patriots 6.36% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

61.37%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.86%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

60.35%

Win Prob

44.42%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

39.78%

Win Prob

52.16%

Green Bay Packers 5.33% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

56.64%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

50.47%

Win Prob

38.54%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

27.87%

Win Prob

52.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

34.15%

Win Prob

46.19%

Philadelphia Eagles 4.80% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.96%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.46%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

56.87%

Win Prob

52.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

35.00%

Win Prob

49.41%

New York Jets 4.24% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.24%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

62.64%

Win Prob

37.39%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

35.95%

Win Prob

38.68%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

37.50%

Win Prob

46.36%

Baltimore Ravens 3.06% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.63%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.62%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

65.80%

Win Prob

38.01%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

33.66%

Win Prob

44.78%

Arizona Cardinals 2.02% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.36%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

51.42%

Win Prob

27.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

27.56%

Win Prob

33.51%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

34.16%

Win Prob

45.39%

Cincinnati Bengals 1.07% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.76%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

64.29%

Win Prob

24.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

36.52%

Win Prob

25.50%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

34.58%

Win Prob

34.58%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2009-09-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-20	1541.56	1456.43	68.03%	31.73%	-20.96	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-17	1520.60	1438.38	54.91%	44.85%	+25.87	1-1
2009-09-27	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-31	1546.47	1591.75	50.15%	49.61%	-35.41	1-2
2009-10-11	Houston Texans	W 28-21	1511.06	1478.15	61.20%	38.56%	+15.73	2-2
2009-10-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-3	1526.79	1467.65	51.60%	48.16%	+36.35	3-2
2009-10-25	@ New York Giants	W 24-17	1563.14	1621.93	35.10%	64.66%	+26.35	4-2
2009-11-01	Carolina Panthers	L 21-34	1589.49	1452.61	74.11%	25.65%	-41.16	4-3
2009-11-08	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-21	1548.33	1500.23	50.02%	49.75%	+34.28	5-3
2009-11-15	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-20	1582.61	1427.35	76.08%	23.69%	+12.12	6-3
2009-11-22	@ St. Louis Rams	W 21-13	1594.73	1264.18	83.46%	16.30%	+7.11	7-3
2009-11-29	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1601.84	1534.33	52.81%	46.96%	-14.09	7-4
2009-12-06	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-17	1587.75	1661.99	45.99%	53.77%	+29.87	8-4
2009-12-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 9-24	1617.62	1443.17	67.41%	32.36%	-40.21	8-5
2009-12-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1577.41	1229.74	84.76%	15.00%	+6.13	9-5
2009-12-27	St. Louis Rams	W 31-10	1583.54	1213.98	91.47%	8.29%	+5.86	10-5
2010-01-03	Green Bay Packers	L 7-33	1589.40	1594.74	55.87%	43.89%	-43.88	10-6
2009-09-13	Miami Dolphins	W 19-7	1534.71	1516.20	59.22%	40.55%	+21.65	1-0
2009-09-20	Carolina Panthers	W 28-20	1556.36	1491.82	65.41%	34.35%	+14.98	2-0
2009-09-27	@ New England Patriots	L 10-26	1571.34	1570.09	43.32%	56.45%	-26.70	2-1
2009-10-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 45-10	1544.64	1509.29	48.18%	51.58%	+47.01	3-1
2009-10-18	Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1591.65	1546.15	62.90%	36.86%	+15.03	4-1
2009-10-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-37	1606.68	1546.29	51.79%	47.98%	-31.91	4-2
2009-11-02	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-35	1574.77	1692.44	27.82%	71.95%	-12.13	4-3
2009-11-08	Washington Redskins	W 31-17	1562.64	1405.97	76.22%	23.54%	+13.58	5-3
2009-11-15	@ Carolina Panthers	L 19-28	1576.22	1484.78	56.22%	43.55%	-25.97	5-4
2009-11-22	@ New York Giants	L 31-34	1550.25	1556.89	42.20%	57.56%	-11.27	5-5
2009-11-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-17	1538.98	1365.31	77.94%	21.82%	+5.83	6-5
2009-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-34	1544.81	1619.04	46.00%	53.77%	-36.82	6-6
2009-12-13	New Orleans Saints	L 23-26	1507.99	1759.06	23.53%	76.23%	-6.29	6-7
2009-12-20	@ New York Jets	W 10-7	1501.70	1552.11	36.21%	63.56%	+16.95	7-7
2009-12-27	Buffalo Bills	W 31-3	1518.65	1408.53	71.07%	28.70%	+23.42	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-10	1542.07	1389.43	64.60%	35.16%	+17.14	9-7
2009-09-13	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-24	1624.50	1368.81	84.93%	14.83%	+8.56	1-0
2009-09-20	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-26	1633.06	1578.86	50.89%	48.87%	+16.84	2-0
2009-09-27	Cleveland Browns	W 34-3	1649.90	1365.86	86.88%	12.88%	+11.07	3-0
2009-10-04	@ New England Patriots	L 21-27	1660.97	1596.79	52.33%	47.44%	-19.75	3-1
2009-10-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-17	1641.22	1469.97	77.70%	22.06%	-20.72	3-2
2009-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 31-33	1620.50	1612.43	44.28%	55.48%	-9.66	3-3
2009-11-01	Denver Broncos	W 30-7	1610.84	1574.13	61.72%	38.05%	+28.13	4-3
2009-11-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-17	1638.97	1508.39	61.66%	38.11%	-30.03	4-4
2009-11-16	@ Cleveland Browns	W 16-0	1608.94	1307.54	81.04%	18.72%	+11.56	5-4
2009-11-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 15-17	1620.50	1694.72	46.00%	53.77%	-10.03	5-5
2009-11-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-17	1610.47	1642.66	52.04%	47.73%	+12.74	6-5
2009-12-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-27	1623.21	1538.76	55.23%	44.54%	-30.67	6-6
2009-12-13	Detroit Lions	W 48-3	1592.54	1239.08	90.74%	9.02%	+9.34	7-6
2009-12-20	Chicago Bears	W 31-7	1601.88	1419.00	78.83%	20.93%	+15.82	8-6
2009-12-27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1617.70	1579.26	48.63%	51.14%	-12.97	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 21-13	1604.73	1300.32	81.31%	18.46%	+8.05	9-7
2009-09-14	@ New England Patriots	L 24-25	1447.17	1587.86	25.24%	74.53%	-3.89	0-1
2009-09-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-20	1443.28	1457.28	54.64%	45.13%	+25.07	1-1
2009-09-27	New Orleans Saints	L 7-27	1468.35	1596.04	38.50%	61.26%	-26.54	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-38	1441.81	1465.07	39.89%	59.88%	-32.53	1-3
2009-10-11	Cleveland Browns	L 3-6	1409.28	1343.64	65.56%	34.21%	-17.49	1-4
2009-10-18	@ New York Jets	W 16-13	1391.79	1526.99	25.84%	73.93%	+19.72	2-4
2009-10-25	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-9	1411.51	1486.72	32.98%	66.79%	+34.11	3-4
2009-11-01	Houston Texans	L 10-31	1445.62	1503.72	48.31%	51.46%	-34.11	3-5
2009-11-15	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-41	1411.51	1494.60	31.98%	67.78%	-24.16	3-6
2009-11-22	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 15-18	1387.35	1431.48	37.05%	62.72%	-9.89	3-7
2009-11-29	Miami Dolphins	W 31-14	1377.46	1532.90	34.80%	64.97%	+41.25	4-7
2009-12-03	New York Jets	L 13-19	1418.71	1512.74	43.18%	56.58%	-16.30	4-8
2009-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-10	1402.41	1316.18	55.48%	44.28%	+16.72	5-8
2009-12-20	New England Patriots	L 10-17	1419.13	1647.44	25.97%	73.79%	-10.60	5-9
2009-12-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 3-31	1408.53	1518.65	28.70%	71.07%	-23.42	5-10
2010-01-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-7	1385.11	1697.60	17.77%	82.00%	+20.19	6-10
2009-09-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-38	1526.95	1621.70	43.08%	56.69%	-35.13	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-28	1491.82	1556.36	34.35%	65.41%	-14.98	0-2
2009-09-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-21	1476.84	1535.73	35.09%	64.68%	-20.24	0-3
2009-10-11	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1456.60	1465.74	55.33%	44.43%	+11.86	1-3
2009-10-18	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-21	1468.46	1385.73	54.98%	44.78%	+18.26	2-3
2009-10-25	Buffalo Bills	L 9-20	1486.72	1411.51	66.79%	32.98%	-34.11	2-4
2009-11-01	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 34-21	1452.61	1589.49	25.65%	74.11%	+41.15	3-4
2009-11-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-30	1493.76	1704.57	18.40%	81.37%	-8.98	3-5
2009-11-15	Atlanta Falcons	W 28-19	1484.78	1576.22	43.55%	56.22%	+25.98	4-5
2009-11-19	Miami Dolphins	L 17-24	1510.76	1509.77	56.77%	43.00%	-23.13	4-6
2009-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 6-17	1487.63	1490.92	42.67%	57.09%	-21.81	4-7
2009-12-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-6	1465.82	1359.48	70.62%	29.15%	+14.21	5-7
2009-12-13	@ New England Patriots	L 10-20	1480.03	1635.92	23.62%	76.14%	-11.52	5-8
2009-12-20	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-7	1468.51	1655.04	30.85%	68.91%	+46.26	6-8
2009-12-27	@ New York Giants	W 41-9	1514.77	1571.02	35.43%	64.33%	+56.04	7-8
2010-01-03	New Orleans Saints	W 23-10	1570.81	1708.14	37.20%	62.57%	+11.58	8-8
2009-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 15-21	1513.34	1493.05	46.02%	53.74%	-17.38	0-1
2009-09-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1495.96	1650.95	34.86%	64.91%	+17.32	1-1
2009-09-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 25-19	1513.28	1446.29	52.73%	47.03%	+17.75	2-1
2009-10-04	Detroit Lions	W 48-24	1531.03	1338.22	79.76%	20.00%	+15.12	3-1
2009-10-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-21	1546.15	1591.65	36.86%	62.90%	-15.04	3-2
2009-10-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-45	1531.11	1459.76	53.36%	46.41%	-48.62	3-3
2009-11-01	Cleveland Browns	W 30-6	1482.49	1325.28	76.28%	23.48%	+17.74	4-3
2009-11-08	Arizona Cardinals	L 21-41	1500.23	1548.33	49.75%	50.02%	-34.27	4-4
2009-11-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-10	1465.96	1425.06	48.98%	50.78%	-15.09	4-5
2009-11-22	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-24	1450.87	1602.89	35.24%	64.52%	-10.87	4-6
2009-11-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-36	1440.00	1647.27	18.70%	81.06%	-14.72	4-7
2009-12-06	St. Louis Rams	W 17-9	1425.28	1239.38	79.12%	20.65%	+9.01	5-7
2009-12-13	Green Bay Packers	L 14-21	1434.29	1569.43	37.49%	62.27%	-15.29	5-8
2009-12-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-31	1419.00	1601.88	20.93%	78.83%	-15.82	5-9
2009-12-28	Minnesota Vikings	W 36-30	1403.18	1608.78	28.56%	71.20%	+26.86	6-9
2010-01-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 37-23	1430.04	1214.73	72.33%	27.43%	+15.83	7-9
2009-09-13	Denver Broncos	L 7-12	1431.37	1430.40	56.76%	43.00%	-19.55	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-24	1411.82	1510.42	30.07%	69.69%	+28.39	1-1
2009-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1440.21	1633.63	30.01%	69.75%	+18.61	2-1
2009-10-04	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1458.82	1354.79	57.99%	41.77%	+11.15	3-1
2009-10-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-14	1469.97	1641.22	22.06%	77.70%	+20.73	4-1
2009-10-18	Houston Texans	L 17-28	1490.70	1462.42	60.57%	39.20%	-30.94	4-2
2009-10-25	Chicago Bears	W 45-10	1459.76	1531.11	46.41%	53.36%	+48.63	5-2
2009-11-08	Baltimore Ravens	W 17-7	1508.39	1638.97	38.11%	61.66%	+30.02	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 18-12	1538.41	1693.59	23.70%	76.07%	+28.70	7-2
2009-11-22	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-20	1567.11	1311.01	76.75%	23.02%	-20.47	7-3
2009-11-29	Cleveland Browns	W 16-7	1546.64	1288.40	85.12%	14.64%	+6.78	8-3
2009-12-06	Detroit Lions	W 23-13	1553.42	1244.63	88.40%	11.37%	+5.55	9-3
2009-12-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-30	1558.97	1632.12	33.24%	66.52%	-22.93	9-4
2009-12-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1536.04	1658.89	27.22%	72.54%	-7.27	9-5
2009-12-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1528.77	1276.98	84.65%	15.12%	+6.17	10-5
2010-01-03	@ New York Jets	L 0-37	1534.94	1581.96	36.66%	63.11%	-34.37	10-6
2009-09-13	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-34	1412.85	1540.15	38.56%	61.21%	-22.24	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-27	1390.61	1449.95	35.03%	64.74%	-24.75	0-2
2009-09-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-34	1365.86	1649.90	12.88%	86.88%	-11.07	0-3
2009-10-04	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1354.79	1458.82	41.77%	57.99%	-11.15	0-4
2009-10-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 6-3	1343.64	1409.28	34.21%	65.56%	+17.49	1-4
2009-10-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-27	1361.13	1641.37	13.13%	86.63%	-7.31	1-5
2009-10-25	Green Bay Packers	L 3-31	1353.82	1507.85	34.98%	64.78%	-28.54	1-6
2009-11-01	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-30	1325.28	1482.49	23.48%	76.28%	-17.74	1-7
2009-11-16	Baltimore Ravens	L 0-16	1307.54	1608.94	18.72%	81.04%	-11.56	1-8
2009-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 37-38	1295.98	1253.29	49.24%	50.53%	-7.58	1-9
2009-11-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-16	1288.40	1546.64	14.64%	85.12%	-6.78	1-10
2009-12-06	San Diego Chargers	L 23-30	1281.62	1640.68	14.18%	85.58%	-5.79	1-11
2009-12-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-6	1275.83	1606.36	16.30%	83.46%	+34.00	2-11
2009-12-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-34	1309.83	1299.46	44.61%	55.16%	+22.48	3-11
2009-12-27	Oakland Raiders	W 23-9	1332.31	1324.56	57.72%	42.05%	+24.25	4-11
2010-01-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1356.56	1399.64	50.47%	49.29%	+18.60	5-11
2009-09-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-21	1517.56	1486.25	47.60%	52.16%	+28.98	1-0
2009-09-20	New York Giants	L 31-33	1546.54	1595.59	49.61%	50.16%	-10.81	1-1
2009-09-28	Carolina Panthers	W 21-7	1535.73	1476.84	64.68%	35.09%	+20.24	2-1
2009-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1555.97	1508.95	49.86%	49.90%	-20.33	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-20	1535.64	1326.89	71.57%	28.19%	+10.65	3-2
2009-10-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 37-21	1546.29	1606.68	47.98%	51.79%	+31.91	4-2
2009-11-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-17	1578.20	1431.30	75.20%	24.57%	+17.37	5-2
2009-11-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-16	1595.57	1644.47	36.41%	63.36%	+19.51	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-17	1615.08	1479.43	62.34%	37.42%	-30.36	6-3
2009-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 7-6	1584.72	1422.23	76.82%	22.94%	+3.54	7-3
2009-11-26	Oakland Raiders	W 24-7	1588.26	1331.48	85.01%	14.75%	+9.39	8-3
2009-12-06	@ New York Giants	L 24-31	1597.65	1527.41	53.20%	46.57%	-21.69	8-4
2009-12-13	San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1575.96	1646.47	46.53%	53.24%	-12.41	8-5
2009-12-19	@ New Orleans Saints	W 24-17	1563.55	1765.35	19.19%	80.58%	+32.83	9-5
2009-12-27	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-0	1596.38	1404.02	69.62%	30.14%	+19.16	10-5
2010-01-03	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-0	1615.54	1690.14	45.94%	53.82%	+40.62	11-5
2009-09-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 12-7	1430.40	1431.37	43.00%	56.76%	+19.55	1-0
2009-09-20	Cleveland Browns	W 27-6	1449.95	1390.61	64.74%	35.03%	+24.75	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-3	1474.70	1426.36	50.05%	49.71%	+34.25	3-0
2009-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-10	1508.95	1555.97	49.90%	49.86%	+20.33	4-0
2009-10-11	New England Patriots	W 20-17	1529.28	1616.54	44.14%	55.63%	+14.84	5-0
2009-10-19	@ San Diego Chargers	W 34-23	1544.12	1559.23	41.02%	58.75%	+30.01	6-0
2009-11-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-30	1574.13	1610.84	38.05%	61.72%	-28.13	6-1
2009-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-28	1546.00	1667.89	39.30%	60.47%	-25.70	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-27	1520.30	1392.38	61.29%	38.47%	-29.85	6-3
2009-11-22	San Diego Chargers	L 3-32	1490.45	1594.60	41.76%	58.01%	-34.66	6-4
2009-11-26	New York Giants	W 26-6	1455.79	1568.16	40.61%	59.15%	+40.75	7-4
2009-12-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 44-13	1496.54	1346.67	64.24%	35.53%	+30.49	8-4
2009-12-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-28	1527.03	1728.90	19.18%	80.58%	-10.25	8-5
2009-12-20	Oakland Raiders	L 19-20	1516.78	1312.11	80.83%	18.93%	-12.45	8-6
2009-12-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-30	1504.33	1684.48	21.20%	78.57%	-5.66	8-7
2010-01-03	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-44	1498.67	1270.81	82.80%	16.97%	-57.03	8-8
2009-09-13	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-45	1344.01	1525.82	21.04%	78.73%	-13.77	0-1
2009-09-20	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-27	1330.24	1562.39	25.55%	74.22%	-14.74	0-2
2009-09-27	Washington Redskins	W 19-14	1315.50	1478.72	33.79%	65.98%	+22.72	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-48	1338.22	1531.03	20.00%	79.76%	-15.12	1-3
2009-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-28	1323.10	1633.54	17.94%	81.82%	-7.83	1-4
2009-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 0-26	1315.27	1490.83	21.64%	78.13%	-17.02	1-5
2009-11-01	St. Louis Rams	L 10-17	1298.25	1241.06	64.45%	35.31%	-26.27	1-6
2009-11-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-32	1271.98	1413.94	25.10%	74.67%	-13.41	1-7
2009-11-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-27	1258.57	1628.00	8.30%	91.47%	-5.28	1-8
2009-11-22	Cleveland Browns	W 38-37	1253.29	1295.98	50.53%	49.24%	+7.59	2-8
2009-11-26	Green Bay Packers	L 12-34	1260.88	1522.51	22.46%	77.31%	-16.25	2-9
2009-12-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-23	1244.63	1553.42	11.37%	88.40%	-5.55	2-10
2009-12-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-48	1239.08	1592.54	9.02%	90.74%	-9.34	2-11
2009-12-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 24-31	1229.74	1577.41	15.00%	84.76%	-6.12	2-12
2009-12-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-20	1223.62	1471.64	15.40%	84.37%	-8.89	2-13
2010-01-03	Chicago Bears	L 23-37	1214.73	1430.04	27.43%	72.33%	-15.84	2-14
2009-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 21-15	1493.05	1513.34	53.74%	46.02%	+17.37	1-0
2009-09-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-31	1510.42	1411.82	69.69%	30.07%	-28.39	1-1
2009-09-27	@ St. Louis Rams	W 36-17	1482.03	1309.45	67.17%	32.59%	+21.90	2-1
2009-10-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-30	1503.93	1585.90	32.13%	67.64%	-13.10	2-2
2009-10-18	Detroit Lions	W 26-0	1490.83	1315.27	78.13%	21.64%	+17.02	3-2
2009-10-25	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-3	1507.85	1353.82	64.78%	34.98%	+28.54	4-2
2009-11-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 26-38	1536.39	1602.86	47.11%	52.66%	-25.15	4-3
2009-11-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 28-38	1511.24	1353.05	65.33%	34.44%	-31.81	4-4
2009-11-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-7	1479.43	1615.08	37.42%	62.34%	+30.36	5-4
2009-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-24	1509.79	1440.15	66.07%	33.69%	+12.72	6-4
2009-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-12	1522.51	1260.88	77.31%	22.46%	+16.25	7-4
2009-12-07	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-14	1538.76	1623.21	44.54%	55.23%	+30.67	8-4
2009-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1569.43	1434.29	62.27%	37.49%	+15.29	9-4
2009-12-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 36-37	1584.72	1572.35	44.89%	54.87%	-6.91	9-5
2009-12-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 48-10	1577.81	1360.08	81.96%	17.81%	+16.93	10-5
2010-01-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 33-7	1594.74	1589.40	43.89%	55.87%	+43.88	11-5
2009-09-13	New York Jets	L 7-24	1496.69	1484.86	58.29%	41.48%	-37.02	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-31	1459.67	1584.92	26.95%	72.81%	+19.42	1-1
2009-09-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-31	1479.09	1412.52	65.68%	34.09%	-26.76	1-2
2009-10-04	Oakland Raiders	W 29-6	1452.33	1392.10	64.85%	34.91%	+25.82	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-28	1478.15	1511.06	38.56%	61.20%	-15.73	2-3
2009-10-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-17	1462.42	1490.70	39.20%	60.57%	+30.94	3-3
2009-10-25	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-21	1493.36	1462.28	60.95%	38.82%	+10.36	4-3
2009-11-01	@ Buffalo Bills	W 31-10	1503.72	1445.62	51.46%	48.31%	+34.11	5-3
2009-11-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-20	1537.83	1682.02	24.86%	74.91%	-6.64	5-4
2009-11-23	Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1531.19	1518.76	58.37%	41.39%	-15.57	5-5
2009-11-29	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-35	1515.62	1704.74	30.54%	69.23%	-13.32	5-6
2009-12-06	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 18-23	1502.30	1412.71	55.96%	43.81%	-19.27	5-7
2009-12-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-7	1483.03	1431.86	63.66%	36.11%	+28.92	6-7
2009-12-20	@ St. Louis Rams	W 16-13	1511.95	1219.19	80.28%	19.49%	+5.21	7-7
2009-12-27	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-20	1517.16	1505.71	44.76%	55.00%	+22.41	8-7
2010-01-03	New England Patriots	W 34-27	1539.57	1670.76	38.03%	61.74%	+25.16	9-7
2009-09-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 14-12	1572.17	1444.19	73.12%	26.64%	+5.81	1-0
2009-09-21	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-23	1577.98	1494.55	55.08%	44.68%	+13.77	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-10	1591.75	1546.47	49.61%	50.15%	+35.41	3-0
2009-10-04	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-17	1627.16	1428.53	80.29%	19.47%	+12.39	4-0
2009-10-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-9	1639.55	1506.37	62.01%	37.76%	+27.30	5-0
2009-10-25	@ St. Louis Rams	W 42-6	1666.85	1250.92	89.12%	10.65%	+9.86	6-0
2009-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 18-14	1676.71	1451.91	82.55%	17.22%	+5.31	7-0
2009-11-08	Houston Texans	W 20-17	1682.02	1537.83	74.91%	24.86%	+6.64	8-0
2009-11-15	New England Patriots	W 35-34	1688.66	1661.19	60.46%	39.31%	+6.06	9-0
2009-11-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 17-15	1694.72	1620.50	53.77%	46.00%	+10.02	10-0
2009-11-29	@ Houston Texans	W 35-27	1704.74	1515.62	69.23%	30.54%	+13.32	11-0
2009-12-06	Tennessee Titans	W 27-17	1718.06	1548.42	77.54%	22.22%	+10.84	12-0
2009-12-13	Denver Broncos	W 28-16	1728.90	1527.03	80.58%	19.18%	+10.25	13-0
2009-12-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-31	1739.15	1417.60	82.75%	17.02%	+5.26	14-0
2009-12-27	New York Jets	L 15-29	1744.41	1535.15	81.23%	18.53%	-46.81	14-1
2010-01-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 7-30	1697.60	1385.11	82.00%	17.77%	-20.19	14-2
2009-09-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 12-14	1444.19	1572.17	26.64%	73.12%	-5.81	0-1
2009-09-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-31	1438.38	1520.60	44.85%	54.91%	-25.86	0-2
2009-09-27	@ Houston Texans	W 31-24	1412.52	1479.09	34.09%	65.68%	+26.76	1-2
2009-10-04	Tennessee Titans	W 37-17	1439.28	1546.63	41.31%	58.46%	+40.26	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-41	1479.54	1416.15	52.22%	47.55%	-51.51	2-3
2009-10-18	St. Louis Rams	W 23-20	1428.03	1256.82	77.70%	22.07%	+5.90	3-3
2009-11-01	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-30	1433.93	1446.79	41.33%	58.43%	-26.27	3-4
2009-11-08	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-21	1407.66	1321.89	68.12%	31.65%	+8.46	4-4
2009-11-15	@ New York Jets	W 24-22	1416.12	1521.79	29.22%	70.54%	+15.36	5-4
2009-11-22	Buffalo Bills	W 18-15	1431.48	1387.35	62.72%	37.05%	+9.89	6-4
2009-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-20	1441.37	1427.43	45.12%	54.65%	-28.66	6-5
2009-12-06	Houston Texans	W 23-18	1412.71	1502.30	43.81%	55.96%	+19.27	7-5
2009-12-13	Miami Dolphins	L 10-14	1431.98	1501.63	46.65%	53.11%	-14.38	7-6
2009-12-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 31-35	1417.60	1739.15	17.02%	82.75%	-5.25	7-7
2009-12-27	@ New England Patriots	L 7-35	1412.35	1658.04	15.57%	84.19%	-12.71	7-8
2010-01-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-23	1399.64	1356.56	49.29%	50.47%	-18.61	7-9
2009-09-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 24-38	1368.81	1624.50	14.83%	84.93%	-8.56	0-1
2009-09-20	Oakland Raiders	L 10-13	1360.25	1413.27	49.04%	50.73%	-13.08	0-2
2009-09-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-34	1347.17	1600.37	15.01%	84.75%	-10.36	0-3
2009-10-04	New York Giants	L 16-27	1336.81	1630.87	19.37%	80.39%	-9.92	0-4
2009-10-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-26	1326.89	1535.64	28.19%	71.57%	-10.65	0-5
2009-10-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 14-6	1316.24	1453.88	25.57%	74.20%	+32.32	1-5
2009-10-25	San Diego Chargers	L 7-37	1348.56	1529.22	31.58%	68.19%	-26.67	1-6
2009-11-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 21-24	1321.89	1407.66	31.65%	68.12%	-8.45	1-7
2009-11-15	@ Oakland Raiders	W 16-10	1313.44	1333.43	40.34%	59.42%	+22.42	2-7
2009-11-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1335.86	1664.89	16.42%	83.35%	+22.23	3-7
2009-11-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-43	1358.09	1629.26	13.74%	86.03%	-11.42	3-8
2009-12-06	Denver Broncos	L 13-44	1346.67	1496.54	35.53%	64.24%	-30.49	3-9
2009-12-13	Buffalo Bills	L 10-16	1316.18	1402.41	44.28%	55.48%	-16.72	3-10
2009-12-20	Cleveland Browns	L 34-41	1299.46	1309.83	55.16%	44.61%	-22.48	3-11
2009-12-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1276.98	1528.77	15.12%	84.65%	-6.17	3-12
2010-01-03	@ Denver Broncos	W 44-24	1270.81	1498.67	16.97%	82.80%	+57.03	4-12
2009-09-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-19	1516.20	1534.71	40.55%	59.22%	-21.65	0-1
2009-09-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 23-27	1494.55	1577.98	44.68%	55.08%	-13.77	0-2
2009-09-27	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-23	1480.78	1562.03	32.22%	67.55%	-15.71	0-3
2009-10-04	Buffalo Bills	W 38-10	1465.07	1441.81	59.88%	39.89%	+32.54	1-3
2009-10-12	New York Jets	W 31-27	1497.61	1542.25	50.24%	49.52%	+15.26	2-3
2009-10-25	New Orleans Saints	L 34-46	1512.87	1674.27	34.02%	65.74%	-18.17	2-4
2009-11-01	@ New York Jets	W 30-25	1494.70	1543.61	36.41%	63.36%	+21.81	3-4
2009-11-08	@ New England Patriots	L 17-27	1516.51	1648.40	26.20%	73.56%	-12.78	3-5
2009-11-15	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 25-23	1503.73	1384.86	72.09%	27.68%	+6.04	4-5
2009-11-19	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-17	1509.77	1510.76	43.00%	56.77%	+23.13	5-5
2009-11-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-31	1532.90	1377.46	64.97%	34.80%	-41.25	5-6
2009-12-06	New England Patriots	W 22-21	1491.65	1645.90	34.95%	64.81%	+9.98	6-6
2009-12-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 14-10	1501.63	1431.98	53.11%	46.65%	+14.38	7-6
2009-12-20	@ Tennessee Titans	L 24-27	1516.01	1548.77	38.59%	61.18%	-10.30	7-7
2009-12-27	Houston Texans	L 20-27	1505.71	1517.16	55.00%	44.76%	-22.42	7-8
2010-01-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-30	1483.29	1592.24	41.09%	58.68%	-15.51	7-9
2009-09-13	@ Cleveland Browns	W 34-20	1540.15	1412.85	61.21%	38.56%	+22.24	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-13	1562.39	1330.24	74.22%	25.55%	+14.74	2-0
2009-09-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1577.13	1500.76	66.93%	32.83%	+8.77	3-0
2009-10-05	Green Bay Packers	W 30-23	1585.90	1503.93	67.64%	32.13%	+13.11	4-0
2009-10-11	@ St. Louis Rams	W 38-10	1599.01	1270.24	83.32%	16.44%	+13.42	5-0
2009-10-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 33-31	1612.43	1620.50	55.48%	44.28%	+9.65	6-0
2009-10-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-27	1622.08	1648.67	39.43%	60.33%	-19.22	6-1
2009-11-01	@ Green Bay Packers	W 38-26	1602.86	1536.39	52.66%	47.11%	+25.14	7-1
2009-11-15	Detroit Lions	W 27-10	1628.00	1258.57	91.47%	8.30%	+5.28	8-1
2009-11-22	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-9	1633.28	1415.23	81.99%	17.78%	+13.99	9-1
2009-11-29	Chicago Bears	W 36-10	1647.27	1440.00	81.06%	18.70%	+14.72	10-1
2009-12-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-30	1661.99	1587.75	53.77%	45.99%	-29.87	10-2
2009-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-10	1632.12	1558.97	66.52%	33.24%	+22.92	11-2
2009-12-20	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-26	1655.04	1468.51	68.91%	30.85%	-46.26	11-3
2009-12-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 30-36	1608.78	1403.18	71.20%	28.56%	-26.85	11-4
2010-01-03	New York Giants	W 44-7	1581.93	1514.98	65.73%	34.04%	+31.92	12-4
2009-09-14	Buffalo Bills	W 25-24	1587.86	1447.17	74.53%	25.24%	+3.89	1-0
2009-09-20	@ New York Jets	L 9-16	1591.75	1521.87	53.15%	46.62%	-21.66	1-1
2009-09-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-10	1570.09	1571.34	56.45%	43.32%	+26.70	2-1
2009-10-04	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-21	1596.79	1660.97	47.44%	52.33%	+19.75	3-1
2009-10-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1616.54	1529.28	55.63%	44.14%	-14.84	3-2
2009-10-18	Tennessee Titans	W 59-0	1601.70	1479.07	72.52%	27.25%	+32.28	4-2
2009-10-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-7	1633.98	1367.48	82.09%	17.67%	+14.42	5-2
2009-11-08	Miami Dolphins	W 27-17	1648.40	1516.51	73.56%	26.20%	+12.79	6-2
2009-11-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 34-35	1661.19	1688.66	39.31%	60.46%	-6.06	6-3
2009-11-22	New York Jets	W 31-14	1655.13	1506.43	75.39%	24.38%	+15.50	7-3
2009-11-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-38	1670.63	1730.20	35.00%	64.77%	-24.73	7-4
2009-12-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-22	1645.90	1491.65	64.81%	34.95%	-9.98	7-5
2009-12-13	Carolina Panthers	W 20-10	1635.92	1480.03	76.14%	23.62%	+11.52	8-5
2009-12-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-10	1647.44	1419.13	73.79%	25.97%	+10.60	9-5
2009-12-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-7	1658.04	1412.35	84.19%	15.57%	+12.72	10-5
2010-01-03	@ Houston Texans	L 27-34	1670.76	1539.57	61.74%	38.03%	-25.16	10-6
2009-09-13	Detroit Lions	W 45-27	1525.82	1344.01	78.73%	21.04%	+13.76	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 48-22	1539.58	1656.83	27.87%	71.90%	+56.46	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-7	1596.04	1468.35	61.26%	38.50%	+26.54	3-0
2009-10-04	New York Jets	W 24-10	1622.58	1562.39	64.85%	34.92%	+20.15	4-0
2009-10-18	New York Giants	W 48-27	1642.73	1653.46	55.10%	44.66%	+31.54	5-0
2009-10-25	@ Miami Dolphins	W 46-34	1674.27	1512.87	65.74%	34.02%	+18.17	6-0
2009-11-02	Atlanta Falcons	W 35-27	1692.44	1574.77	71.95%	27.82%	+12.13	7-0
2009-11-08	Carolina Panthers	W 30-20	1704.57	1493.76	81.37%	18.40%	+8.98	8-0
2009-11-15	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-23	1713.55	1267.32	90.67%	9.10%	+3.14	9-0
2009-11-22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-7	1716.69	1378.83	84.03%	15.73%	+13.51	10-0
2009-11-30	New England Patriots	W 38-17	1730.20	1670.63	64.77%	35.00%	+24.73	11-0
2009-12-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-30	1754.93	1413.40	84.31%	15.46%	+4.13	12-0
2009-12-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-23	1759.06	1507.99	76.23%	23.53%	+6.29	13-0
2009-12-19	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1765.35	1563.55	80.58%	19.19%	-32.83	13-1
2009-12-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-20	1732.52	1365.05	91.38%	8.38%	-24.38	13-2
2010-01-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-23	1708.14	1570.81	62.57%	37.20%	-11.59	13-3
2009-09-13	Washington Redskins	W 23-17	1584.26	1484.96	69.78%	29.99%	+11.33	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 33-31	1595.59	1546.54	50.16%	49.61%	+10.81	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-0	1606.40	1432.21	67.38%	32.39%	+24.47	3-0
2009-10-04	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-16	1630.87	1336.81	80.39%	19.37%	+9.91	4-0
2009-10-11	Oakland Raiders	W 44-7	1640.78	1366.29	86.25%	13.51%	+12.68	5-0
2009-10-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-48	1653.46	1642.73	44.66%	55.10%	-31.53	5-1
2009-10-25	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-24	1621.93	1563.14	64.66%	35.10%	-26.35	5-2
2009-11-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-40	1595.58	1614.54	40.48%	59.28%	-29.93	5-3
2009-11-08	San Diego Chargers	L 20-21	1565.65	1563.78	56.89%	42.87%	-8.76	5-4
2009-11-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-31	1556.89	1550.25	57.56%	42.20%	+11.27	6-4
2009-11-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-26	1568.16	1455.79	59.15%	40.61%	-40.75	6-5
2009-12-06	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-24	1527.41	1597.65	46.57%	53.20%	+21.68	7-5
2009-12-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 38-45	1549.09	1655.87	41.39%	58.38%	-16.87	7-6
2009-12-21	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-12	1532.22	1442.82	55.93%	43.84%	+38.80	8-6
2009-12-27	Carolina Panthers	L 9-41	1571.02	1514.77	64.33%	35.43%	-56.04	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-44	1514.98	1581.93	34.04%	65.73%	-31.92	8-8
2009-09-13	@ Houston Texans	W 24-7	1484.86	1496.69	41.48%	58.29%	+37.01	1-0
2009-09-20	New England Patriots	W 16-9	1521.87	1591.75	46.62%	53.15%	+21.66	2-0
2009-09-27	Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1543.53	1565.49	53.50%	46.26%	+18.86	3-0
2009-10-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-24	1562.39	1622.58	34.92%	64.85%	-20.14	3-1
2009-10-12	@ Miami Dolphins	L 27-31	1542.25	1497.61	49.52%	50.24%	-15.26	3-2
2009-10-18	Buffalo Bills	L 13-16	1526.99	1391.79	73.93%	25.84%	-19.72	3-3
2009-10-25	@ Oakland Raiders	W 38-0	1507.27	1377.65	61.52%	38.24%	+36.34	4-3
2009-11-01	Miami Dolphins	L 25-30	1543.61	1494.70	63.36%	36.41%	-21.82	4-4
2009-11-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 22-24	1521.79	1416.12	70.54%	29.22%	-15.36	4-5
2009-11-22	@ New England Patriots	L 14-31	1506.43	1655.13	24.38%	75.39%	-15.51	4-6
2009-11-29	Carolina Panthers	W 17-6	1490.92	1487.63	57.09%	42.67%	+21.82	5-6
2009-12-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-13	1512.74	1418.71	56.58%	43.18%	+16.30	6-6
2009-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-3	1529.04	1345.26	68.57%	31.19%	+23.07	7-6
2009-12-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-10	1552.11	1501.70	63.56%	36.21%	-16.96	7-7
2009-12-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 29-15	1535.15	1744.41	18.53%	81.23%	+46.81	8-7
2010-01-03	Cincinnati Bengals	W 37-0	1581.96	1534.94	63.11%	36.66%	+34.38	9-7
2009-09-14	San Diego Chargers	L 20-24	1424.50	1567.63	36.42%	63.34%	-11.23	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-10	1413.27	1360.25	50.73%	49.04%	+13.09	1-1
2009-09-27	Denver Broncos	L 3-23	1426.36	1474.70	49.71%	50.05%	-34.26	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Houston Texans	L 6-29	1392.10	1452.33	34.91%	64.85%	-25.81	1-3
2009-10-11	@ New York Giants	L 7-44	1366.29	1640.78	13.51%	86.25%	-12.68	1-4
2009-10-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 13-9	1353.61	1622.99	21.69%	78.08%	+24.04	2-4
2009-10-25	New York Jets	L 0-38	1377.65	1507.27	38.24%	61.52%	-36.33	2-5
2009-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-24	1341.32	1555.89	18.07%	81.69%	-7.89	2-6
2009-11-15	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-16	1333.43	1313.44	59.42%	40.34%	-22.42	2-7
2009-11-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1311.01	1567.11	23.02%	76.75%	+20.47	3-7
2009-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-24	1331.48	1588.26	14.75%	85.01%	-9.38	3-8
2009-12-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1322.10	1629.92	11.42%	88.34%	+23.57	4-8
2009-12-13	Washington Redskins	L 13-34	1345.67	1409.27	47.52%	52.25%	-33.56	4-9
2009-12-20	@ Denver Broncos	W 20-19	1312.11	1516.78	18.93%	80.83%	+12.45	5-9
2009-12-27	@ Cleveland Browns	L 9-23	1324.56	1332.31	42.05%	57.72%	-24.24	5-10
2010-01-03	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-21	1300.32	1604.73	18.46%	81.31%	-8.06	5-11
2009-09-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 38-10	1621.70	1526.95	56.69%	43.08%	+35.13	1-0
2009-09-20	New Orleans Saints	L 22-48	1656.83	1539.58	71.90%	27.87%	-56.46	1-1
2009-09-27	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-14	1600.37	1347.17	84.75%	15.01%	+10.36	2-1
2009-10-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-14	1610.73	1398.00	81.53%	18.23%	+12.26	3-1
2009-10-18	@ Oakland Raiders	L 9-13	1622.99	1353.61	78.08%	21.69%	-24.05	3-2
2009-10-26	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1598.94	1421.56	67.78%	31.99%	+15.60	4-2
2009-11-01	New York Giants	W 40-17	1614.54	1595.58	59.28%	40.48%	+29.93	5-2
2009-11-08	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-20	1644.47	1595.57	63.36%	36.41%	-19.52	5-3
2009-11-15	@ San Diego Chargers	L 23-31	1624.95	1572.54	50.64%	49.13%	-22.06	5-4
2009-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-20	1602.89	1450.87	64.52%	35.24%	+10.86	6-4
2009-11-29	Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1613.75	1418.69	79.97%	19.80%	+5.29	7-4
2009-12-06	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-7	1619.04	1544.81	53.77%	46.00%	+36.83	8-4
2009-12-13	@ New York Giants	W 45-38	1655.87	1549.09	58.38%	41.39%	+16.88	9-4
2009-12-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-13	1672.75	1483.37	79.44%	20.32%	+11.73	10-4
2009-12-27	Denver Broncos	W 30-27	1684.48	1504.33	78.57%	21.20%	+5.66	11-4
2010-01-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 0-24	1690.14	1615.54	53.82%	45.94%	-40.61	11-5
2009-09-10	Tennessee Titans	W 13-10	1641.14	1594.73	63.02%	36.74%	+9.81	1-0
2009-09-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1650.95	1495.96	64.91%	34.86%	-17.32	1-1
2009-09-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1633.63	1440.21	69.75%	30.01%	-18.60	1-2
2009-10-04	San Diego Chargers	W 38-28	1615.03	1577.74	61.80%	37.97%	+18.51	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-20	1633.54	1323.10	81.82%	17.94%	+7.83	3-2
2009-10-18	Cleveland Browns	W 27-14	1641.37	1361.13	86.63%	13.13%	+7.30	4-2
2009-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-17	1648.67	1622.08	60.33%	39.43%	+19.22	5-2
2009-11-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 28-10	1667.89	1546.00	60.47%	39.30%	+25.70	6-2
2009-11-15	Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-18	1693.59	1538.41	76.07%	23.70%	-28.70	6-3
2009-11-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1664.89	1335.86	83.35%	16.42%	-22.23	6-4
2009-11-29	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-20	1642.66	1610.47	47.73%	52.04%	-12.74	6-5
2009-12-06	Oakland Raiders	L 24-27	1629.92	1322.10	88.34%	11.42%	-23.56	6-6
2009-12-10	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-13	1606.36	1275.83	83.46%	16.30%	-34.01	6-7
2009-12-20	Green Bay Packers	W 37-36	1572.35	1584.72	54.87%	44.89%	+6.91	7-7
2009-12-27	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1579.26	1617.70	51.14%	48.63%	+12.98	8-7
2010-01-03	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-24	1592.24	1483.29	58.68%	41.09%	+15.51	9-7
2009-09-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-20	1567.63	1424.50	63.34%	36.42%	+11.23	1-0
2009-09-20	Baltimore Ravens	L 26-31	1578.86	1633.06	48.87%	50.89%	-16.83	1-1
2009-09-27	Miami Dolphins	W 23-13	1562.03	1480.78	67.55%	32.22%	+15.71	2-1
2009-10-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 28-38	1577.74	1615.03	37.97%	61.80%	-18.51	2-2
2009-10-19	Denver Broncos	L 23-34	1559.23	1544.12	58.75%	41.02%	-30.01	2-3
2009-10-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-7	1529.22	1348.56	68.19%	31.58%	+26.67	3-3
2009-11-01	Oakland Raiders	W 24-16	1555.89	1341.32	81.69%	18.07%	+7.89	4-3
2009-11-08	@ New York Giants	W 21-20	1563.78	1565.65	42.87%	56.89%	+8.76	5-3
2009-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-23	1572.54	1624.95	49.13%	50.64%	+22.06	6-3
2009-11-22	@ Denver Broncos	W 32-3	1594.60	1490.45	58.01%	41.76%	+34.66	7-3
2009-11-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 43-14	1629.26	1358.09	86.03%	13.74%	+11.42	8-3
2009-12-06	@ Cleveland Browns	W 30-23	1640.68	1281.62	85.58%	14.18%	+5.79	9-3
2009-12-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1646.47	1575.96	53.24%	46.53%	+12.42	10-3
2009-12-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-24	1658.89	1536.04	72.54%	27.22%	+7.27	11-3
2009-12-25	@ Tennessee Titans	W 42-17	1666.16	1559.07	58.42%	41.35%	+31.86	12-3
2010-01-03	Washington Redskins	W 23-20	1698.02	1384.85	88.65%	11.12%	+0.99	13-3
2009-09-13	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 20-16	1456.43	1541.56	31.73%	68.03%	+20.96	1-0
2009-09-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-10	1477.39	1469.65	57.71%	42.05%	+23.37	2-0
2009-09-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1500.76	1577.13	32.83%	66.93%	-8.77	2-1
2009-10-04	St. Louis Rams	W 35-0	1491.99	1287.54	80.81%	18.95%	+17.30	3-1
2009-10-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-45	1509.29	1544.64	51.58%	48.18%	-47.01	3-2
2009-10-25	@ Houston Texans	L 21-24	1462.28	1493.36	38.82%	60.95%	-10.37	3-3
2009-11-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-18	1451.91	1676.71	17.22%	82.55%	-5.31	3-4
2009-11-08	Tennessee Titans	L 27-34	1446.60	1473.06	52.86%	46.91%	-21.54	3-5
2009-11-12	Chicago Bears	W 10-6	1425.06	1465.96	50.78%	48.98%	+15.09	4-5
2009-11-22	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-30	1440.15	1509.79	33.69%	66.07%	-12.72	4-6
2009-11-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-3	1427.43	1441.37	54.65%	45.12%	+28.66	5-6
2009-12-06	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-20	1456.09	1418.93	48.44%	51.32%	-12.92	5-7
2009-12-14	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-9	1443.17	1617.62	32.36%	67.41%	+40.20	6-7
2009-12-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-27	1483.37	1672.75	20.32%	79.44%	-11.73	6-8
2009-12-27	Detroit Lions	W 20-6	1471.64	1223.62	84.37%	15.40%	+8.89	7-8
2010-01-03	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-6	1480.53	1208.11	78.37%	21.39%	+15.48	8-8
2009-09-13	St. Louis Rams	W 28-0	1446.01	1338.16	70.80%	28.97%	+23.64	1-0
2009-09-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1469.65	1477.39	42.05%	57.71%	-23.36	1-1
2009-09-27	Chicago Bears	L 19-25	1446.29	1513.28	47.03%	52.73%	-17.76	1-2
2009-10-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-34	1428.53	1627.16	19.47%	80.29%	-12.38	1-3
2009-10-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-0	1416.15	1479.54	47.55%	52.22%	+51.50	2-3
2009-10-18	Arizona Cardinals	L 3-27	1467.65	1526.79	48.16%	51.60%	-36.35	2-4
2009-11-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-38	1431.30	1578.20	24.57%	75.20%	-17.36	2-5
2009-11-08	Detroit Lions	W 32-20	1413.94	1271.98	74.67%	25.10%	+13.41	3-5
2009-11-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-31	1427.35	1582.61	23.69%	76.08%	-12.12	3-6
2009-11-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-35	1415.23	1633.28	17.78%	81.99%	-13.99	3-7
2009-11-29	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-17	1401.24	1257.07	63.48%	36.28%	+17.69	4-7
2009-12-06	San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1418.93	1456.09	51.32%	48.44%	+12.93	5-7
2009-12-13	@ Houston Texans	L 7-34	1431.86	1483.03	36.11%	63.66%	-28.93	5-8
2009-12-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-24	1402.93	1322.20	67.49%	32.28%	-42.85	5-9
2009-12-27	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-48	1360.08	1577.81	17.81%	81.96%	-16.93	5-10
2010-01-03	Tennessee Titans	L 13-17	1343.15	1527.21	31.16%	68.61%	-9.61	5-11
2009-09-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-28	1338.16	1446.01	28.97%	70.80%	-23.63	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-9	1314.53	1473.64	23.29%	76.48%	-5.08	0-2
2009-09-27	Green Bay Packers	L 17-36	1309.45	1482.03	32.59%	67.17%	-21.91	0-3
2009-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-35	1287.54	1491.99	18.95%	80.81%	-17.30	0-4
2009-10-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-38	1270.24	1599.01	16.44%	83.32%	-13.42	0-5
2009-10-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-23	1256.82	1428.03	22.07%	77.70%	-5.90	0-6
2009-10-25	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-42	1250.92	1666.85	10.65%	89.12%	-9.86	0-7
2009-11-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-10	1241.06	1298.25	35.31%	64.45%	+26.26	1-7
2009-11-15	New Orleans Saints	L 23-28	1267.32	1713.55	9.10%	90.67%	-3.14	1-8
2009-11-22	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-21	1264.18	1594.73	16.30%	83.46%	-7.11	1-9
2009-11-29	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-27	1257.07	1401.24	36.28%	63.48%	-17.69	1-10
2009-12-06	@ Chicago Bears	L 9-17	1239.38	1425.28	20.65%	79.12%	-9.01	1-11
2009-12-13	@ Tennessee Titans	L 7-47	1230.37	1537.58	11.46%	88.31%	-11.18	1-12
2009-12-20	Houston Texans	L 13-16	1219.19	1511.95	19.49%	80.28%	-5.21	1-13
2009-12-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-31	1213.98	1583.54	8.29%	91.47%	-5.87	1-14
2010-01-03	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-28	1208.11	1480.53	21.39%	78.37%	-15.48	1-15
2009-09-13	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-34	1486.25	1517.56	52.16%	47.60%	-28.97	0-1
2009-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-33	1457.28	1443.28	45.13%	54.64%	-25.07	0-2
2009-09-27	New York Giants	L 0-24	1432.21	1606.40	32.39%	67.38%	-24.47	0-3
2009-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1407.74	1456.00	36.49%	63.27%	-9.74	0-4
2009-10-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-33	1398.00	1610.73	18.23%	81.53%	-12.27	0-5
2009-10-18	Carolina Panthers	L 21-28	1385.73	1468.46	44.78%	54.98%	-18.25	0-6
2009-10-25	@ New England Patriots	L 7-35	1367.48	1633.98	17.67%	82.09%	-14.43	0-7
2009-11-08	Green Bay Packers	W 38-28	1353.05	1511.24	34.44%	65.33%	+31.81	1-7
2009-11-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-25	1384.86	1503.73	27.68%	72.09%	-6.03	1-8
2009-11-22	New Orleans Saints	L 7-38	1378.83	1716.69	15.73%	84.03%	-13.52	1-9
2009-11-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1365.31	1538.98	21.82%	77.94%	-5.83	1-10
2009-12-06	@ Carolina Panthers	L 6-16	1359.48	1465.82	29.15%	70.62%	-14.22	1-11
2009-12-13	New York Jets	L 3-26	1345.26	1529.04	31.19%	68.57%	-23.06	1-12
2009-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 24-7	1322.20	1402.93	32.28%	67.49%	+42.85	2-12
2009-12-27	@ New Orleans Saints	W 20-17	1365.05	1732.52	8.38%	91.38%	+24.38	3-12
2010-01-03	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-20	1389.43	1542.07	35.16%	64.60%	-17.15	3-13
2009-09-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-13	1594.73	1641.14	36.74%	63.02%	-9.81	0-1
2009-09-20	Houston Texans	L 31-34	1584.92	1459.67	72.81%	26.95%	-19.43	0-2
2009-09-27	@ New York Jets	L 17-24	1565.49	1543.53	46.26%	53.50%	-18.86	0-3
2009-10-04	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-37	1546.63	1439.28	58.46%	41.31%	-40.26	0-4
2009-10-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 9-31	1506.37	1639.55	37.76%	62.01%	-27.30	0-5
2009-10-18	@ New England Patriots	L 0-59	1479.07	1601.70	27.25%	72.52%	-32.28	0-6
2009-11-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-13	1446.79	1433.93	58.43%	41.33%	+26.27	1-6
2009-11-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-27	1473.06	1446.60	46.91%	52.86%	+21.54	2-6
2009-11-15	Buffalo Bills	W 41-17	1494.60	1411.51	67.78%	31.98%	+24.16	3-6
2009-11-23	@ Houston Texans	W 20-17	1518.76	1531.19	41.39%	58.37%	+15.57	4-6
2009-11-29	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1534.33	1601.84	46.96%	52.81%	+14.09	5-6
2009-12-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-27	1548.42	1718.06	22.22%	77.54%	-10.84	5-7
2009-12-13	St. Louis Rams	W 47-7	1537.58	1230.37	88.31%	11.46%	+11.19	6-7
2009-12-20	Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1548.77	1516.01	61.18%	38.59%	+10.30	7-7
2009-12-25	San Diego Chargers	L 17-42	1559.07	1666.16	41.35%	58.42%	-31.86	7-8
2010-01-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-13	1527.21	1343.15	68.61%	31.16%	+9.61	8-8
2009-09-13	@ New York Giants	L 17-23	1484.96	1584.26	29.99%	69.78%	-11.32	0-1
2009-09-20	St. Louis Rams	W 9-7	1473.64	1314.53	76.48%	23.29%	+5.08	1-1
2009-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-19	1478.72	1315.50	65.98%	33.79%	-22.72	1-2
2009-10-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-13	1456.00	1407.74	63.27%	36.49%	+9.74	2-2
2009-10-11	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-20	1465.74	1456.60	44.43%	55.33%	-11.86	2-3
2009-10-18	Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-14	1453.88	1316.24	74.20%	25.57%	-32.32	2-4
2009-10-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1421.56	1598.94	31.99%	67.78%	-15.59	2-5
2009-11-08	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-31	1405.97	1562.64	23.54%	76.22%	-13.59	2-6
2009-11-15	Denver Broncos	W 27-17	1392.38	1520.30	38.47%	61.29%	+29.85	3-6
2009-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 6-7	1422.23	1584.72	22.94%	76.82%	-3.54	3-7
2009-11-29	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1418.69	1613.75	19.80%	79.97%	-5.29	3-8
2009-12-06	New Orleans Saints	L 30-33	1413.40	1754.93	15.46%	84.31%	-4.13	3-9
2009-12-13	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-13	1409.27	1345.67	52.25%	47.52%	+33.55	4-9
2009-12-21	New York Giants	L 12-45	1442.82	1532.22	43.84%	55.93%	-38.80	4-10
2009-12-27	Dallas Cowboys	L 0-17	1404.02	1596.38	30.14%	69.62%	-19.17	4-11
2010-01-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 20-23	1384.85	1698.02	11.12%	88.65%	-0.99	4-12

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2010-01-10	Green Bay Packers	W 51-45	1545.52	1638.62	43.43%	56.57%	+21.30	1-0
2010-01-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-45	1566.82	1696.55	26.54%	73.46%	-22.71	1-1
2010-01-10	@ New England Patriots	W 33-14	1612.78	1645.60	38.69%	61.31%	+41.08	1-0
2010-01-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-20	1653.86	1677.41	39.96%	60.04%	-25.33	1-1
2010-01-09	New York Jets	L 14-24	1500.57	1616.34	40.25%	59.75%	-19.57	0-1
2010-01-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-14	1656.16	1649.53	57.68%	42.32%	+29.09	1-0
2010-01-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 3-34	1685.25	1613.85	53.48%	46.52%	-45.77	1-1
2010-01-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 45-51	1638.62	1545.52	56.57%	43.43%	-21.30	0-1
2010-01-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-3	1677.41	1653.86	60.04%	39.96%	+25.32	1-0
2010-01-24	New York Jets	W 30-17	1702.73	1653.30	63.55%	36.45%	+20.20	2-0
2010-02-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-31	1722.93	1728.61	49.18%	50.82%	-28.28	2-1
2010-01-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-3	1613.85	1685.25	46.52%	53.48%	+45.77	1-0
2010-01-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 28-31	1659.62	1719.26	35.10%	64.90%	-9.35	1-1
2010-01-10	Baltimore Ravens	L 14-33	1645.60	1612.78	61.31%	38.69%	-41.08	0-1
2010-01-16	Arizona Cardinals	W 45-14	1696.55	1566.82	73.46%	26.54%	+22.71	1-0
2010-01-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-28	1719.26	1659.62	64.90%	35.10%	+9.35	2-0
2010-02-07	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-17	1728.61	1722.93	50.82%	49.18%	+28.28	3-0
2010-01-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-14	1616.34	1500.57	59.75%	40.25%	+19.56	1-0
2010-01-17	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-14	1635.90	1699.01	34.64%	65.36%	+17.40	2-0
2010-01-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-30	1653.30	1702.73	36.45%	63.55%	-20.20	2-1
2010-01-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-34	1649.53	1656.16	42.32%	57.68%	-29.09	0-1
2010-01-17	New York Jets	L 14-17	1699.01	1635.90	65.36%	34.64%	-17.40	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2009-12-27	8.38%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1365.05	20	@ New Orleans Saints	1732.52	17
2	2009-12-06	11.42%	Oakland Raiders	1322.10	27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1629.92	24
3	2009-12-10	16.30%	@ Cleveland Browns	1275.83	13	Pittsburgh Steelers	1606.36	6
4	2009-11-22	16.42%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1335.86	27	Pittsburgh Steelers	1664.89	24
5	2010-01-03	16.97%	Kansas City Chiefs	1270.81	44	@ Denver Broncos	1498.67	24
6	2010-01-03	17.77%	@ Buffalo Bills	1385.11	30	Indianapolis Colts	1697.60	7
7	2009-12-27	18.53%	New York Jets	1535.15	29	@ Indianapolis Colts	1744.41	15
8	2009-12-20	18.93%	Oakland Raiders	1312.11	20	@ Denver Broncos	1516.78	19
9	2009-12-19	19.19%	Dallas Cowboys	1563.55	24	@ New Orleans Saints	1765.35	17
10	2009-10-18	21.69%	@ Oakland Raiders	1353.61	13	Philadelphia Eagles	1622.99	9
11	2009-10-11	22.06%	Cincinnati Bengals	1469.97	17	@ Baltimore Ravens	1641.22	14
12	2009-11-22	23.02%	@ Oakland Raiders	1311.01	20	Cincinnati Bengals	1567.11	17
13	2009-11-15	23.70%	Cincinnati Bengals	1538.41	18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1693.59	12
14	2009-10-18	25.57%	Kansas City Chiefs	1316.24	14	@ Washington Redskins	1453.88	6
15	2009-11-01	25.65%	Carolina Panthers	1452.61	34	@ Arizona Cardinals	1589.49	21
16	2009-10-18	25.84%	Buffalo Bills	1391.79	16	@ New York Jets	1526.99	13
17	2009-09-20	26.95%	Houston Texans	1459.67	34	@ Tennessee Titans	1584.92	31
18	2009-09-20	27.87%	New Orleans Saints	1539.58	48	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1656.83	22
19	2009-12-28	28.56%	@ Chicago Bears	1403.18	36	Minnesota Vikings	1608.78	30
20	2009-11-15	29.22%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1416.12	24	@ New York Jets	1521.79	22
21	2009-09-27	30.01%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1440.21	23	Pittsburgh Steelers	1633.63	20
22	2009-09-20	30.07%	Cincinnati Bengals	1411.82	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1510.42	24
23	2009-12-20	30.85%	@ Carolina Panthers	1468.51	26	Minnesota Vikings	1655.04	7
24	2009-09-13	31.73%	San Francisco 49ers	1456.43	20	@ Arizona Cardinals	1541.56	16
25	2009-12-20	32.28%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1322.20	24	@ Seattle Seahawks	1402.93	7

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2010-01-03	57.03	Kansas City Chiefs	44	1270.81	16.97%	@ Denver Broncos	24	1498.67	82.80%
2	2009-09-20	56.46	New Orleans Saints	48	1539.58	27.87%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	22	1656.83	71.90%
3	2009-12-27	56.04	Carolina Panthers	41	1514.77	35.43%	@ New York Giants	9	1571.02	64.33%
4	2009-10-11	51.51	@ Seattle Seahawks	41	1416.15	47.55%	Jacksonville Jaguars	0	1479.54	52.22%
5	2009-10-25	48.63	@ Cincinnati Bengals	45	1459.76	46.41%	Chicago Bears	10	1531.11	53.36%
6	2009-10-11	47.01	Atlanta Falcons	45	1544.64	48.18%	@ San Francisco 49ers	10	1509.29	51.58%
7	2009-12-27	46.81	New York Jets	29	1535.15	18.53%	@ Indianapolis Colts	15	1744.41	81.23%
8	2009-12-20	46.26	@ Carolina Panthers	26	1468.51	30.85%	Minnesota Vikings	7	1655.04	68.91%
9	2010-01-17 *	45.77	@ Minnesota Vikings	34	1613.85	46.52%	Dallas Cowboys	3	1685.25	53.48%
10	2010-01-03	43.88	Green Bay Packers	33	1594.74	43.89%	@ Arizona Cardinals	7	1589.40	55.87%
11	2009-12-20	42.85	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	24	1322.20	32.28%	@ Seattle Seahawks	7	1402.93	67.49%
12	2009-11-29	41.25	@ Buffalo Bills	31	1377.46	34.80%	Miami Dolphins	14	1532.90	64.97%
13	2009-11-01	41.16	Carolina Panthers	34	1452.61	25.65%	@ Arizona Cardinals	21	1589.49	74.11%
14	2010-01-10 *	41.08	Baltimore Ravens	33	1612.78	38.69%	@ New England Patriots	14	1645.60	61.31%
15	2009-11-26	40.75	@ Denver Broncos	26	1455.79	40.61%	New York Giants	6	1568.16	59.15%
16	2010-01-03	40.62	@ Dallas Cowboys	24	1615.54	45.94%	Philadelphia Eagles	0	1690.14	53.82%
17	2009-10-04	40.26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	37	1439.28	41.31%	Tennessee Titans	17	1546.63	58.46%
18	2009-12-14	40.21	@ San Francisco 49ers	24	1443.17	32.36%	Arizona Cardinals	9	1617.62	67.41%
19	2009-12-21	38.80	New York Giants	45	1532.22	55.93%	@ Washington Redskins	12	1442.82	43.84%
20	2009-09-13	37.02	New York Jets	24	1484.86	41.48%	@ Houston Texans	7	1496.69	58.29%
21	2009-12-06	36.83	Philadelphia Eagles	34	1619.04	53.77%	@ Atlanta Falcons	7	1544.81	46.00%
22	2009-10-18	36.35	Arizona Cardinals	27	1526.79	51.60%	@ Seattle Seahawks	3	1467.65	48.16%
23	2009-10-25	36.34	New York Jets	38	1507.27	61.52%	@ Oakland Raiders	0	1377.65	38.24%
24	2009-09-27	35.41	Indianapolis Colts	31	1591.75	49.61%	@ Arizona Cardinals	10	1546.47	50.15%
25	2009-09-13	35.13	Philadelphia Eagles	38	1621.70	56.69%	@ Carolina Panthers	10	1526.95	43.08%