2010 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Green Bay Packers

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 1996

Runner-Up

Pittsburgh Steelers

8th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2008

Biggest Overachiever

New England Patriots

3.99 wins above expected

14 wins · 10.01 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Carolina Panthers

3.94 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.94 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	14	2	.875	—	518	313	+205	10.01	+3.99
2	New York Jets Playoffs	11	5	.688	3	367	304	+63	10.15	+0.85
3	Miami Dolphins	7	9	.438	7	273	333	-60	7.18	-0.18
4	Buffalo Bills	4	12	.250	10	283	425	-142	5.22	-1.22

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	12	4	.750	—	375	232	+143	10.22	+1.78
2	Baltimore Ravens Playoffs	12	4	.750	—	357	270	+87	9.92	+2.08
3	Cleveland Browns	5	11	.312	7	271	332	-61	6.39	-1.39
4	Cincinnati Bengals	4	12	.250	8	322	395	-73	6.02	-2.02

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	10	6	.625	—	435	388	+47	9.81	+0.19
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	8	8	.500	2	353	419	-66	7.03	+0.97
3	Houston Texans	6	10	.375	4	390	427	-37	7.74	-1.74
4	Tennessee Titans	6	10	.375	4	356	339	+17	8.69	-2.69

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Kansas City Chiefs Division	10	6	.625	—	366	326	+40	8.51	+1.49
2	San Diego Chargers	9	7	.562	1	441	322	+119	10.14	-1.14
3	Oakland Raiders	8	8	.500	2	410	371	+39	6.61	+1.39
4	Denver Broncos	4	12	.250	6	344	471	-127	6.53	-2.53

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	10	6	.625	—	439	377	+62	9.54	+0.46
2	New York Giants	10	6	.625	—	394	347	+47	8.74	+1.26
3	Washington Redskins	6	10	.375	4	302	377	-75	6.36	-0.36
4	Dallas Cowboys	6	10	.375	4	394	436	-42	7.75	-1.75

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Chicago Bears Division	11	5	.688	—	334	286	+48	8.52	+2.48
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	388	240	+148	9.73	+0.27
3	Minnesota Vikings	6	10	.375	5	281	348	-67	7.75	-1.75
4	Detroit Lions	6	10	.375	5	362	369	-7	5.08	+0.92

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	13	3	.812	—	414	288	+126	9.94	+3.06
2	New Orleans Saints Playoffs	11	5	.688	2	384	307	+77	10.53	+0.47
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	6	.625	3	341	318	+23	7.54	+2.46
4	Carolina Panthers	2	14	.125	11	196	408	-212	5.94	-3.94

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	7	9	.438	—	310	407	-97	6.73	+0.27
2	St. Louis Rams	7	9	.438	—	289	328	-39	6.58	+0.42
3	San Francisco 49ers	6	10	.375	1	305	346	-41	7.34	-1.34
4	Arizona Cardinals	5	11	.312	2	289	434	-145	7.76	-2.76

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

New York Jets 17

Indianapolis Colts 16

Jan 8

Baltimore Ravens 30

Kansas City Chiefs 7

Jan 9

Divisional Round

Pittsburgh Steelers 31

Baltimore Ravens 24

Jan 15

New York Jets 28

New England Patriots 21

Jan 16

Conference Championship

Pittsburgh Steelers 24

New York Jets 19

Jan 23

NFC

Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 41

New Orleans Saints 36

Jan 8

Green Bay Packers 21

Philadelphia Eagles 16

Jan 9

Divisional Round

Green Bay Packers 48

Atlanta Falcons 21

Jan 15

Chicago Bears 35

Seattle Seahawks 24

Jan 16

Conference Championship

Green Bay Packers 21

Chicago Bears 14

Jan 23

Super Bowl

Green Bay Packers 31

Pittsburgh Steelers 25

Feb 6

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1737	14	10.01	+3.99	99.46%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1656	12	9.92	+2.08	92.57%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1655	10	9.73	+0.27	66.11%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1653	13	9.94	+3.06	97.96%	1	7	9	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1644	12	10.22	+1.78	89.02%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1616	11	10.53	+0.47	70.88%	3	7	9	11	12	13	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1610	11	10.15	+0.85	77.10%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1592	10	9.81	+0.19	64.11%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1591	10	9.54	+0.46	68.67%	2	6	8	10	11	13	16
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1585	9	10.14	-1.14	36.77%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1580	11	8.52	+2.48	93.81%	1	5	7	9	10	12	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1550	10	8.74	+1.26	82.76%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1529	10	7.54	+2.46	94.09%	0	4	6	8	9	11	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1505	8	6.61	+1.39	84.52%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1498	6	7.75	-1.75	26.25%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1489	10	8.51	+1.49	85.06%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1468	7	7.18	-0.18	57.11%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1464	6	7.75	-1.75	26.00%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1459	6	7.74	-1.74	26.50%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1453	6	8.69	-2.69	13.54%	2	5	7	9	10	12	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1447	6	7.34	-1.34	33.57%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1440	8	7.03	+0.97	77.93%	1	4	6	7	8	10	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1439	6	5.08	+0.92	78.79%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1415	4	6.02	-2.02	20.77%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1408	5	6.39	-1.39	32.37%	0	3	5	6	8	10	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1398	6	6.36	-0.36	53.25%	0	3	5	6	8	10	13
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1384	7	6.58	+0.42	69.13%	0	3	5	7	8	10	14
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1384	7	6.73	+0.27	66.12%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1381	4	5.22	-1.22	36.04%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1331	5	7.76	-2.76	12.42%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1324	4	6.53	-2.53	14.62%	1	3	5	6	8	10	14
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1316	2	5.94	-3.94	2.54%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—
Miami Dolphins	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	—
New York Jets	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	—
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.5 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	4-0 (2.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.7 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	New England Patriots	14	10.01	+3.99
2	Atlanta Falcons	13	9.94	+3.06
3	Chicago Bears	11	8.52	+2.48
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	7.54	+2.46
5	Baltimore Ravens	12	9.92	+2.08

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Carolina Panthers	2	5.94	-3.94
2	Arizona Cardinals	5	7.76	-2.76
3	Tennessee Titans	6	8.69	-2.69
4	Denver Broncos	4	6.53	-2.53
5	Cincinnati Bengals	4	6.02	-2.02

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Detroit Lions	4	Dec 12 – Jan 2	1 in 129
2	New England Patriots	8	Nov 14 – Jan 2	1 in 38
3	Atlanta Falcons	8	Oct 24 – Dec 19	1 in 29
4	New York Giants	5	Oct 3 – Nov 7	1 in 28
5	Chicago Bears	5	Nov 7 – Dec 5	1 in 19

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cincinnati Bengals	10	Oct 3 – Dec 12	1 in 250
2	Tennessee Titans	6	Oct 31 – Dec 9	1 in 219
3	Arizona Cardinals	7	Oct 24 – Dec 5	1 in 137
4	Dallas Cowboys	5	Oct 10 – Nov 7	1 in 42
5	Buffalo Bills	8	Sep 12 – Nov 7	1 in 32

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New York Jets	48.33%	37.47%	12.03%	2.17%
New England Patriots	44.87%	40.51%	12.43%	2.19%
Miami Dolphins	5.99%	17.73%	53.20%	23.08%
Buffalo Bills	0.81%	4.29%	22.34%	72.56%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	51.47%	37.51%	9.28%	1.74%
Baltimore Ravens	43.72%	42.38%	10.82%	3.08%
Cleveland Browns	2.81%	11.08%	42.46%	43.65%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.00%	9.03%	37.44%	51.53%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	52.43%	26.41%	14.68%	6.48%
Tennessee Titans	26.15%	32.36%	24.81%	16.68%
Houston Texans	13.67%	23.76%	31.56%	31.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	7.75%	17.47%	28.95%	45.83%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	65.75%	23.37%	8.38%	2.50%
Kansas City Chiefs	23.54%	41.18%	22.86%	12.42%
Oakland Raiders	5.79%	18.02%	35.89%	40.30%
Denver Broncos	4.92%	17.43%	32.87%	44.78%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	49.39%	28.69%	15.42%	6.50%
New York Giants	31.08%	34.12%	23.43%	11.37%
Dallas Cowboys	14.70%	25.05%	35.78%	24.47%
Washington Redskins	4.83%	12.14%	25.37%	57.66%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	55.10%	28.81%	13.81%	2.28%
Chicago Bears	27.08%	36.53%	28.07%	8.32%
Minnesota Vikings	16.74%	29.03%	39.64%	14.59%
Detroit Lions	1.08%	5.63%	18.48%	74.81%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	53.19%	33.87%	10.59%	2.35%
Atlanta Falcons	39.01%	42.10%	15.67%	3.22%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6.61%	18.46%	47.45%	27.48%
Carolina Panthers	1.19%	5.57%	26.29%	66.95%

Team	1	2	3	4
Arizona Cardinals	35.28%	27.31%	21.70%	15.71%
San Francisco 49ers	29.06%	27.73%	23.75%	19.46%
Seattle Seahawks	19.01%	22.89%	27.39%	30.71%
St. Louis Rams	16.65%	22.07%	27.16%	34.12%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.14%	14.58%	12.11%	10.92%	10.62%	8.78%	7.00%	5.96%	4.01%	3.02%	2.15%	1.69%	1.01%	0.54%	0.28%	0.19%
San Diego Chargers	14.47%	14.94%	14.28%	12.41%	9.64%	7.94%	7.17%	5.71%	4.19%	2.96%	2.19%	1.64%	1.15%	0.73%	0.44%	0.14%
New York Jets	14.99%	14.07%	12.96%	11.29%	10.39%	8.97%	7.68%	6.04%	4.16%	3.08%	2.51%	1.38%	1.04%	0.80%	0.39%	0.25%
New England Patriots	15.63%	12.36%	11.16%	11.23%	10.29%	9.22%	8.05%	6.60%	4.64%	3.62%	2.67%	1.75%	1.28%	0.72%	0.58%	0.20%
Baltimore Ravens	12.87%	11.93%	12.29%	11.12%	10.41%	9.54%	8.59%	6.88%	4.96%	3.57%	2.59%	2.08%	1.41%	0.96%	0.58%	0.22%
Indianapolis Colts	12.34%	12.69%	11.84%	11.55%	9.45%	8.72%	7.58%	6.56%	5.55%	3.80%	3.03%	2.62%	1.85%	1.38%	0.78%	0.26%
Tennessee Titans	4.64%	6.12%	7.06%	7.78%	8.32%	9.26%	8.88%	8.38%	8.12%	7.35%	6.41%	5.77%	4.51%	3.60%	2.39%	1.41%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.33%	4.92%	6.07%	7.28%	8.59%	8.95%	10.04%	10.02%	8.49%	7.20%	6.61%	5.53%	4.50%	3.76%	2.97%	1.74%
Houston Texans	1.69%	3.13%	3.85%	4.41%	5.47%	6.59%	7.22%	8.12%	9.18%	9.30%	8.50%	8.07%	8.47%	7.23%	5.51%	3.26%
Miami Dolphins	0.94%	1.51%	1.99%	2.75%	3.64%	4.40%	5.95%	7.09%	9.10%	10.80%	10.90%	10.49%	9.13%	7.35%	7.21%	6.75%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.53%	1.12%	2.25%	3.17%	3.71%	4.68%	5.12%	6.62%	8.36%	8.36%	8.84%	9.64%	10.60%	10.10%	9.50%	7.40%
Oakland Raiders	0.39%	0.87%	1.20%	1.87%	2.87%	3.59%	4.70%	5.92%	7.04%	8.88%	9.55%	10.21%	10.82%	10.95%	11.46%	9.68%
Denver Broncos	0.43%	0.75%	1.22%	1.72%	2.64%	3.60%	4.63%	5.50%	6.57%	7.90%	9.47%	9.64%	10.87%	11.47%	12.68%	10.91%
Cleveland Browns	0.29%	0.58%	0.84%	1.30%	1.99%	2.63%	3.48%	4.97%	6.89%	8.57%	9.71%	11.02%	11.29%	11.98%	12.05%	12.41%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.26%	0.30%	0.72%	0.81%	1.37%	2.17%	2.51%	3.77%	5.44%	7.34%	8.93%	10.89%	11.74%	13.65%	14.61%	15.49%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%	0.13%	0.16%	0.39%	0.60%	0.96%	1.40%	1.86%	3.30%	4.25%	5.94%	7.58%	10.33%	14.78%	18.57%	29.69%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New Orleans Saints	26.88%	18.36%	13.27%	10.35%	8.02%	6.92%	4.40%	3.29%	2.81%	1.87%	1.37%	0.95%	0.80%	0.37%	0.23%	0.11%
Atlanta Falcons	18.68%	14.35%	12.20%	11.17%	9.92%	8.09%	6.67%	5.13%	4.41%	3.24%	2.25%	1.43%	1.22%	0.70%	0.46%	0.08%
Green Bay Packers	15.32%	15.48%	13.26%	10.42%	9.22%	7.65%	6.91%	5.92%	4.50%	3.72%	2.78%	2.00%	1.36%	0.78%	0.52%	0.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	13.90%	14.20%	12.43%	10.35%	8.93%	7.71%	6.83%	6.00%	4.83%	4.29%	3.27%	2.61%	2.07%	1.37%	0.86%	0.35%
New York Giants	6.37%	8.36%	9.62%	9.09%	9.29%	8.97%	8.84%	7.76%	6.41%	5.79%	5.34%	4.30%	3.95%	2.84%	1.91%	1.16%
Chicago Bears	5.38%	7.26%	7.90%	8.33%	8.76%	9.29%	8.83%	7.59%	7.20%	7.07%	6.15%	5.51%	3.92%	2.91%	2.32%	1.58%
Arizona Cardinals	2.73%	3.81%	6.11%	7.63%	7.28%	7.42%	7.83%	7.93%	7.53%	7.29%	6.89%	7.58%	6.18%	5.58%	4.67%	3.54%
Minnesota Vikings	2.64%	4.35%	5.04%	5.66%	6.47%	7.81%	7.46%	8.18%	8.52%	8.09%	8.42%	7.61%	6.69%	5.16%	4.59%	3.31%
Dallas Cowboys	2.45%	3.90%	4.93%	5.49%	6.36%	6.94%	7.89%	7.74%	8.08%	8.81%	8.70%	8.05%	6.87%	6.14%	4.86%	2.79%
San Francisco 49ers	1.52%	2.87%	4.41%	5.88%	6.64%	6.64%	7.22%	8.13%	7.77%	7.89%	7.76%	8.11%	7.26%	6.65%	6.57%	4.68%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.93%	2.64%	3.47%	4.71%	5.47%	6.38%	7.24%	7.95%	8.73%	9.44%	10.00%	7.62%	7.25%	7.29%	5.84%	4.04%
Seattle Seahawks	0.90%	1.64%	2.49%	3.75%	4.43%	5.01%	5.79%	6.89%	7.13%	7.49%	8.19%	9.16%	9.50%	8.90%	9.54%	9.19%
St. Louis Rams	0.62%	1.10%	2.32%	3.38%	3.83%	4.45%	5.30%	6.42%	7.34%	7.63%	7.96%	9.08%	9.84%	9.40%	10.94%	10.39%
Washington Redskins	0.43%	1.17%	1.56%	2.03%	2.79%	3.30%	4.41%	5.22%	6.36%	6.56%	7.89%	9.63%	11.14%	13.07%	12.20%	12.24%
Carolina Panthers	0.20%	0.39%	0.70%	1.19%	1.80%	2.07%	2.77%	3.77%	5.40%	6.79%	7.88%	9.62%	12.23%	14.72%	15.18%	15.29%
Detroit Lions	0.05%	0.12%	0.29%	0.57%	0.79%	1.35%	1.61%	2.08%	2.98%	4.03%	5.15%	6.74%	9.72%	14.12%	19.31%	31.09%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
New Orleans Saints	12.56%	11.92%	8.81%	9.18%	6.84%	6.89%	5.15%	5.56%	4.16%	4.24%	3.56%	4.02%	2.38%	2.36%	1.87%	1.74%	1.50%	1.46%	0.95%	0.96%	0.76%	0.71%	0.57%	0.37%	0.45%	0.36%	0.26%	0.13%	0.12%	0.10%	0.04%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.10%	8.40%	8.38%	6.63%	7.04%	5.48%	5.78%	5.00%	5.50%	4.59%	4.08%	4.01%	3.66%	3.14%	2.62%	2.39%	1.99%	1.99%	1.59%	1.22%	1.14%	0.87%	0.83%	0.70%	0.62%	0.35%	0.27%	0.23%	0.13%	0.12%	0.12%	0.03%
San Diego Chargers	8.64%	8.09%	8.15%	7.35%	7.54%	6.75%	5.86%	6.00%	4.97%	4.47%	4.12%	3.66%	3.53%	3.06%	2.66%	2.38%	2.38%	1.77%	1.57%	1.15%	1.18%	0.90%	0.90%	0.75%	0.61%	0.40%	0.44%	0.24%	0.24%	0.10%	0.11%	0.03%
New York Jets	9.35%	7.55%	8.45%	6.73%	7.05%	6.02%	5.96%	5.27%	5.61%	4.63%	4.35%	4.01%	3.55%	3.51%	2.67%	2.36%	2.38%	1.91%	1.61%	1.21%	1.15%	1.05%	0.79%	0.63%	0.53%	0.44%	0.38%	0.31%	0.24%	0.15%	0.10%	0.05%
Atlanta Falcons	7.91%	8.38%	6.87%	7.42%	6.36%	6.00%	6.04%	5.75%	5.03%	4.98%	3.94%	4.31%	3.24%	3.60%	2.96%	2.73%	2.28%	2.19%	1.77%	1.72%	1.28%	1.19%	0.91%	0.79%	0.46%	0.67%	0.36%	0.32%	0.18%	0.23%	0.08%	0.05%
New England Patriots	9.58%	7.11%	7.82%	5.92%	6.57%	5.44%	6.23%	5.06%	5.22%	4.75%	4.38%	3.90%	4.51%	3.15%	2.92%	2.62%	2.50%	1.91%	1.89%	1.75%	1.23%	1.24%	0.87%	0.87%	0.49%	0.72%	0.38%	0.38%	0.24%	0.20%	0.10%	0.05%
Baltimore Ravens	7.65%	7.01%	7.05%	5.77%	7.03%	5.92%	5.70%	5.20%	5.60%	4.81%	4.51%	4.36%	4.02%	3.92%	3.18%	3.01%	2.35%	2.06%	1.77%	1.70%	1.23%	1.23%	1.14%	0.90%	0.72%	0.58%	0.43%	0.49%	0.36%	0.10%	0.11%	0.09%
Green Bay Packers	6.07%	7.05%	7.24%	7.78%	5.79%	6.64%	5.54%	5.65%	4.08%	5.38%	3.84%	4.14%	3.65%	3.83%	2.97%	3.54%	2.46%	2.42%	1.92%	1.99%	1.57%	1.48%	0.92%	1.14%	0.70%	0.72%	0.49%	0.37%	0.30%	0.19%	0.10%	0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	7.18%	7.01%	7.18%	6.32%	6.10%	5.55%	6.15%	5.30%	5.17%	4.11%	4.75%	3.76%	4.12%	3.46%	3.45%	2.39%	2.89%	2.34%	2.15%	1.32%	1.59%	1.11%	1.47%	1.18%	1.04%	0.71%	0.59%	0.66%	0.46%	0.26%	0.18%	0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles	5.18%	7.31%	6.22%	6.52%	5.81%	6.37%	5.57%	5.15%	4.27%	4.68%	4.42%	4.23%	3.49%	3.62%	3.24%	3.01%	3.00%	2.43%	2.17%	2.40%	1.80%	1.65%	1.49%	1.37%	1.04%	1.02%	0.77%	0.68%	0.36%	0.48%	0.18%	0.07%
New York Giants	2.39%	3.42%	3.04%	4.15%	3.96%	4.98%	4.51%	4.62%	4.29%	5.14%	4.48%	4.89%	4.11%	4.60%	4.03%	4.33%	3.41%	3.46%	3.04%	3.15%	2.62%	2.78%	2.50%	2.35%	1.90%	1.84%	1.50%	1.58%	1.04%	0.69%	0.69%	0.51%
Tennessee Titans	2.61%	2.54%	3.48%	3.58%	4.04%	3.46%	4.48%	3.73%	4.58%	4.09%	4.89%	4.18%	4.74%	4.02%	4.01%	3.83%	4.29%	3.71%	3.80%	3.18%	3.07%	2.99%	2.87%	2.71%	2.17%	2.06%	1.69%	1.73%	1.19%	1.08%	0.75%	0.45%
Chicago Bears	2.12%	2.54%	3.14%	3.59%	3.33%	4.02%	4.06%	4.07%	3.90%	4.66%	4.36%	5.08%	4.00%	4.51%	4.03%	4.37%	3.65%	4.04%	3.33%	3.72%	3.06%	3.55%	2.71%	2.74%	2.03%	2.26%	1.70%	1.53%	1.38%	1.00%	0.89%	0.63%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.86%	1.98%	2.45%	3.23%	3.32%	3.47%	3.79%	3.83%	4.57%	4.11%	4.71%	4.47%	4.95%	4.59%	4.53%	4.45%	4.33%	3.91%	3.83%	3.34%	3.42%	3.04%	2.57%	2.73%	2.31%	2.14%	2.10%	1.63%	1.45%	1.33%	1.09%	0.47%
Arizona Cardinals	0.82%	1.38%	1.24%	2.03%	2.58%	2.89%	2.94%	3.61%	3.05%	3.91%	3.64%	3.75%	3.80%	4.38%	4.13%	4.51%	3.61%	3.99%	3.73%	4.36%	3.71%	3.44%	3.77%	3.73%	3.40%	3.36%	2.98%	2.76%	2.51%	2.41%	2.00%	1.58%
Minnesota Vikings	0.81%	1.25%	1.56%	2.16%	2.06%	2.61%	2.58%	3.01%	3.19%	3.18%	3.54%	3.87%	3.86%	3.69%	4.23%	4.69%	4.14%	4.38%	3.96%	4.45%	4.09%	4.18%	3.66%	4.20%	3.47%	3.24%	2.88%	2.89%	2.44%	2.33%	1.94%	1.46%
Dallas Cowboys	0.76%	1.08%	1.39%	2.16%	1.99%	2.53%	2.73%	2.83%	2.67%	3.30%	3.73%	3.52%	4.03%	3.73%	4.12%	3.88%	3.97%	4.32%	4.39%	4.65%	4.49%	4.30%	4.07%	4.02%	3.76%	3.55%	3.43%	2.92%	2.48%	2.40%	1.61%	1.19%
Houston Texans	0.89%	1.14%	1.55%	1.70%	2.27%	2.05%	2.57%	2.44%	3.24%	2.23%	3.78%	2.92%	3.90%	3.86%	4.21%	3.55%	4.86%	4.28%	4.65%	4.05%	4.49%	4.07%	4.18%	3.81%	3.98%	3.93%	3.54%	3.37%	2.74%	2.56%	1.85%	1.34%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.51%	1.05%	1.00%	1.32%	1.53%	1.97%	2.06%	2.56%	2.60%	2.77%	2.81%	3.67%	3.30%	4.06%	3.57%	4.37%	4.09%	4.87%	4.61%	4.90%	4.46%	4.98%	3.91%	4.12%	4.14%	3.54%	3.38%	3.65%	3.26%	2.75%	2.39%	1.80%
San Francisco 49ers	0.43%	0.73%	0.94%	1.28%	1.55%	2.21%	2.32%	2.87%	2.85%	3.44%	3.24%	3.63%	2.95%	3.85%	4.09%	4.35%	3.60%	3.89%	4.35%	4.15%	4.29%	4.10%	4.04%	4.37%	4.02%	3.68%	3.63%	3.47%	3.59%	3.20%	2.83%	2.06%
Miami Dolphins	0.40%	0.58%	0.91%	0.73%	1.10%	1.43%	1.56%	1.47%	2.01%	2.12%	2.30%	2.50%	2.96%	3.22%	3.61%	3.73%	4.37%	4.83%	4.88%	5.01%	5.05%	5.16%	4.86%	4.98%	4.32%	4.62%	3.88%	3.85%	3.88%	3.47%	3.33%	2.88%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.19%	0.41%	0.56%	0.84%	1.27%	1.15%	1.61%	1.68%	2.30%	2.05%	2.50%	2.26%	2.98%	2.65%	3.48%	3.14%	4.21%	3.98%	4.18%	4.06%	4.42%	4.27%	4.90%	4.44%	5.44%	4.92%	5.20%	4.71%	4.69%	4.43%	3.96%	3.12%
Seattle Seahawks	0.20%	0.49%	0.51%	0.73%	0.96%	1.36%	1.23%	1.81%	1.69%	2.52%	2.23%	2.33%	2.48%	3.17%	3.74%	3.49%	3.01%	3.65%	3.82%	4.29%	4.30%	4.10%	4.75%	4.68%	4.98%	4.62%	5.05%	4.64%	4.56%	5.16%	5.16%	4.29%
St. Louis Rams	0.17%	0.38%	0.32%	0.58%	0.64%	1.19%	1.04%	1.58%	1.57%	2.29%	1.80%	2.46%	2.18%	3.02%	3.13%	3.25%	2.84%	3.99%	4.08%	4.19%	3.90%	4.51%	4.28%	4.94%	4.85%	5.08%	5.12%	4.98%	5.46%	5.72%	5.03%	5.43%
Oakland Raiders	0.16%	0.24%	0.40%	0.59%	0.65%	0.50%	0.90%	1.19%	1.62%	1.59%	2.07%	1.79%	2.61%	2.33%	2.68%	3.19%	3.86%	3.39%	4.22%	4.09%	4.93%	4.63%	5.10%	5.01%	5.19%	5.45%	5.23%	5.69%	5.34%	5.67%	5.32%	4.37%
Denver Broncos	0.15%	0.27%	0.33%	0.33%	0.74%	0.83%	0.89%	1.15%	1.46%	1.23%	2.01%	1.77%	2.54%	2.25%	2.78%	2.81%	3.32%	3.43%	4.17%	3.76%	4.61%	4.30%	4.94%	4.67%	5.31%	5.28%	5.86%	5.80%	6.23%	6.07%	5.94%	4.77%
Washington Redskins	0.08%	0.18%	0.36%	0.56%	0.55%	0.80%	0.85%	1.10%	1.38%	1.34%	1.54%	1.65%	2.24%	2.02%	2.63%	2.96%	2.97%	2.91%	3.31%	3.80%	4.17%	4.36%	4.78%	4.68%	5.56%	5.58%	5.92%	6.50%	5.98%	6.71%	6.05%	6.48%
Cleveland Browns	0.12%	0.20%	0.28%	0.33%	0.45%	0.63%	0.69%	0.78%	1.06%	1.17%	1.35%	1.36%	2.11%	1.80%	2.82%	2.45%	3.53%	3.45%	3.96%	4.18%	4.62%	4.80%	4.98%	5.39%	5.48%	5.95%	6.21%	5.69%	6.35%	5.56%	6.64%	5.61%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%	0.17%	0.19%	0.18%	0.41%	0.34%	0.41%	0.55%	0.80%	0.71%	1.21%	1.08%	1.56%	1.52%	1.91%	1.96%	2.74%	2.98%	3.47%	3.57%	3.81%	4.53%	5.36%	5.59%	5.35%	6.12%	6.50%	6.88%	7.53%	7.14%	7.60%	7.77%
Carolina Panthers	0.03%	0.10%	0.13%	0.15%	0.31%	0.28%	0.45%	0.66%	0.81%	0.87%	0.79%	1.22%	1.21%	1.38%	1.71%	2.40%	2.55%	2.49%	3.29%	3.25%	4.15%	4.41%	4.87%	4.76%	6.23%	5.97%	6.59%	7.18%	7.57%	7.93%	7.95%	8.31%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	0.08%	0.10%	0.12%	0.21%	0.22%	0.41%	0.23%	0.52%	0.58%	0.78%	0.77%	1.00%	0.99%	1.69%	1.86%	1.87%	2.13%	2.83%	3.40%	3.74%	3.72%	5.16%	5.27%	6.81%	7.46%	8.95%	9.92%	12.14%	16.96%
Detroit Lions	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.06%	0.12%	0.14%	0.30%	0.34%	0.41%	0.55%	0.62%	0.56%	0.93%	1.02%	1.13%	1.23%	1.71%	1.67%	2.30%	2.58%	2.67%	3.27%	3.66%	4.29%	5.57%	6.43%	7.28%	8.75%	10.54%	13.72%	18.04%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Pittsburgh Steelers	17.14%	14.17%	11.23%	8.93%	12.80%	9.83%	25.90%
New England Patriots	15.63%	11.75%	9.94%	7.55%	14.32%	10.39%	30.42%
New York Jets	14.99%	13.43%	11.74%	8.17%	13.77%	10.03%	27.87%
San Diego Chargers	14.47%	15.83%	16.83%	18.62%	4.48%	5.34%	24.43%
Baltimore Ravens	12.87%	11.54%	10.70%	8.61%	13.60%	10.47%	32.21%
Indianapolis Colts	12.34%	13.36%	13.06%	13.67%	6.75%	8.08%	32.74%
Tennessee Titans	4.64%	6.31%	7.32%	7.88%	7.82%	8.85%	57.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.33%	4.98%	6.41%	8.82%	6.89%	8.97%	60.60%
Houston Texans	1.69%	3.30%	3.99%	4.69%	4.87%	6.51%	74.95%
Miami Dolphins	0.94%	1.37%	1.77%	1.91%	3.99%	4.71%	85.31%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.53%	1.24%	2.45%	3.53%	3.07%	4.62%	84.56%
Denver Broncos	0.43%	0.79%	1.32%	2.38%	2.16%	3.22%	89.70%
Oakland Raiders	0.39%	0.91%	1.53%	2.96%	1.87%	3.37%	88.97%
Cleveland Browns	0.29%	0.58%	0.82%	1.12%	1.80%	2.70%	92.69%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.26%	0.31%	0.70%	0.73%	1.28%	2.12%	94.60%
Buffalo Bills	0.06%	0.13%	0.19%	0.43%	0.53%	0.79%	97.87%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New Orleans Saints	26.88%	15.65%	7.66%	3.00%	18.55%	10.19%	18.07%
Atlanta Falcons	18.68%	11.84%	6.01%	2.48%	21.10%	12.10%	27.79%
Green Bay Packers	15.32%	16.95%	15.02%	7.81%	7.34%	7.94%	29.62%
Philadelphia Eagles	13.90%	15.24%	13.79%	6.46%	8.12%	8.87%	33.62%
New York Giants	6.37%	8.99%	10.07%	5.65%	8.39%	10.30%	50.23%
Chicago Bears	5.38%	7.93%	8.50%	5.27%	7.69%	10.32%	54.91%
Arizona Cardinals	2.73%	4.26%	9.00%	19.29%	1.96%	3.32%	59.44%
Minnesota Vikings	2.64%	4.72%	5.98%	3.40%	5.83%	7.59%	69.84%
Dallas Cowboys	2.45%	4.09%	5.06%	3.10%	5.57%	7.76%	71.97%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.93%	2.12%	1.66%	0.90%	7.24%	7.70%	78.45%
San Francisco 49ers	1.52%	3.23%	7.00%	17.31%	1.87%	2.67%	66.40%
Seattle Seahawks	0.90%	1.81%	4.10%	12.20%	1.06%	2.29%	77.64%
St. Louis Rams	0.62%	1.30%	3.58%	11.15%	0.77%	2.15%	80.43%
Washington Redskins	0.43%	1.39%	1.75%	1.26%	2.12%	3.38%	89.67%
Carolina Panthers	0.20%	0.35%	0.41%	0.23%	1.88%	2.21%	94.72%
Detroit Lions	0.05%	0.13%	0.41%	0.49%	0.51%	1.21%	97.20%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	57.64%	57.64%	39.89%	26.39%	17.16%
Green Bay Packers	58.02%	58.02%	36.78%	22.00%	11.49%
Atlanta Falcons	58.45%	58.45%	36.04%	21.25%	11.00%
Baltimore Ravens	50.73%	50.73%	29.05%	15.84%	9.24%
New Orleans Saints	67.76%	67.76%	38.22%	20.41%	9.08%
Pittsburgh Steelers	56.86%	56.86%	31.23%	16.32%	8.59%
New York Jets	52.40%	52.40%	27.32%	13.33%	7.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	51.37%	51.37%	27.47%	13.37%	5.42%
San Diego Chargers	55.06%	55.06%	25.32%	10.75%	5.08%
Indianapolis Colts	47.74%	47.74%	22.58%	10.01%	4.80%
Chicago Bears	31.78%	30.71%	15.16%	6.88%	2.97%
New York Giants	34.41%	33.13%	15.26%	6.39%	2.34%
Kansas City Chiefs	31.09%	20.48%	7.00%	2.24%	0.90%
Dallas Cowboys	21.49%	15.91%	6.40%	2.25%	0.82%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	17.50%	12.73%	5.38%	2.12%	0.80%
Minnesota Vikings	22.80%	17.13%	6.17%	2.07%	0.70%
Tennessee Titans	31.87%	21.56%	6.40%	1.89%	0.59%
Houston Texans	20.06%	11.76%	3.77%	1.07%	0.41%
San Francisco 49ers	28.85%	16.21%	4.92%	1.50%	0.37%
Oakland Raiders	9.73%	5.22%	1.71%	0.53%	0.27%
Miami Dolphins	12.38%	6.51%	2.12%	0.80%	0.27%
Jacksonville Jaguars	13.67%	5.83%	1.79%	0.45%	0.13%
St. Louis Rams	17.65%	7.33%	1.56%	0.38%	0.11%
Seattle Seahawks	19.65%	8.80%	2.01%	0.47%	0.08%
Arizona Cardinals	33.57%	15.20%	2.81%	0.49%	0.08%
Cleveland Browns	6.44%	2.54%	0.75%	0.15%	0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.83%	2.01%	0.57%	0.14%	0.04%
Denver Broncos	9.08%	3.02%	0.44%	0.06%	0.02%
Washington Redskins	8.51%	4.63%	1.14%	0.27%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	1.94%	0.64%	0.06%	0.03%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	2.62%	1.15%	0.35%	0.10%	—
Carolina Panthers	4.73%	1.47%	0.33%	0.05%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.22%	0.41%	0.57%	0.84%	1.49%	3.13%	1.33%	2.49%	1.09%	1.97%	3.11%	0.79%	3.06%	3.12%	2.70%
Buffalo Bills	0.04%		0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%		0.02%	0.05%		0.04%	0.07%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.10%	0.02%		0.02%	0.05%	0.11%	0.10%	0.14%	0.17%	0.05%	0.07%	0.15%	0.04%	0.05%	0.17%	0.20%
Cleveland Browns	0.09%	0.02%	0.01%		0.08%	0.16%	0.18%	0.06%	0.22%	0.07%	0.09%	0.16%	0.03%	0.07%	0.21%	0.22%
Denver Broncos	0.12%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%		0.17%	0.15%	0.05%	0.19%	0.07%	0.07%	0.22%	0.05%	0.21%	0.17%	0.25%
Houston Texans	0.50%	0.07%	0.14%	0.13%	0.27%		0.70%	0.23%	0.72%	0.28%	0.49%	0.75%	0.21%	0.55%	1.02%	0.71%
Indianapolis Colts	2.07%	0.11%	0.41%	0.56%	1.04%	1.75%		1.01%	2.46%	1.13%	1.47%	2.53%	0.72%	2.10%	1.99%	2.69%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.39%	0.06%	0.08%	0.11%	0.17%	0.25%	0.48%		0.48%	0.19%	0.19%	0.31%	0.10%	0.36%	0.58%	0.31%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.07%	0.15%	0.22%	0.36%	0.29%	0.91%	1.27%	0.63%		0.51%	0.64%	1.32%	0.21%	1.18%	1.71%	1.70%
Miami Dolphins	0.36%	0.02%	0.04%	0.13%	0.21%	0.38%	0.46%	0.23%	0.40%		0.13%	0.37%	0.15%	0.34%	0.54%	0.44%
New England Patriots	3.21%	0.19%	0.47%	0.77%	1.02%	1.68%	3.43%	1.40%	2.76%	0.86%		3.89%	0.87%	3.21%	3.63%	2.87%
New York Jets	2.34%	0.11%	0.37%	0.56%	0.93%	1.67%	2.55%	1.41%	2.36%	0.78%	2.12%		0.81%	2.50%	2.80%	2.67%
Oakland Raiders	0.40%	0.05%	0.06%	0.15%	0.10%	0.32%	0.38%	0.21%	0.29%	0.16%	0.28%	0.43%		0.30%	0.36%	0.43%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.10%	0.20%	0.39%	0.45%	0.90%	1.83%	2.58%	1.05%	2.34%	1.31%	1.99%	2.77%	0.68%		2.95%	3.01%
San Diego Chargers	2.38%	0.19%	0.58%	0.62%	0.81%	2.02%	2.55%	1.40%	2.62%	1.14%	1.90%	2.44%	0.80%	2.32%		2.99%
Tennessee Titans	0.89%	0.06%	0.18%	0.28%	0.54%	0.52%	1.52%	0.45%	1.40%	0.54%	0.51%	1.23%	0.35%	0.95%	1.19%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.87%	0.36%	0.58%	0.66%	0.09%	0.40%	0.70%	0.67%	0.73%	0.77%	0.54%	0.53%	0.32%	0.61%	0.38%
Atlanta Falcons	4.84%		0.21%	1.93%	1.38%	0.16%	2.06%	1.19%	2.09%	2.30%	2.04%	3.49%	2.72%	2.41%	0.56%	0.55%
Carolina Panthers	0.23%	0.01%		0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.10%	0.05%	0.05%	0.03%	0.06%	0.16%	0.06%	0.06%	0.02%
Chicago Bears	2.05%	1.36%	0.31%		1.24%	0.06%	1.82%	0.96%	1.36%	1.72%	1.48%	1.68%	1.09%	1.04%	0.69%	0.54%
Dallas Cowboys	1.20%	0.65%	0.15%	0.82%		0.07%	0.74%	0.77%	0.68%	0.78%	0.91%	0.87%	0.62%	0.64%	0.26%	0.21%
Detroit Lions	0.14%	0.02%		0.07%	0.07%		0.06%	0.07%	0.06%	0.10%	0.09%	0.08%	0.09%	0.06%	0.02%	0.04%
Green Bay Packers	2.48%	2.36%	0.40%	2.62%	1.93%	0.28%		1.90%	2.10%	2.98%	2.43%	1.71%	1.12%	1.14%	1.42%	0.88%
Minnesota Vikings	1.41%	0.53%	0.26%	0.54%	0.79%	0.07%	0.66%		0.68%	0.87%	0.79%	0.87%	0.75%	0.62%	0.58%	0.35%
New Orleans Saints	4.02%	1.80%	0.31%	1.70%	1.28%	0.16%	1.50%	1.48%		1.98%	1.85%	3.16%	2.54%	2.16%	0.82%	0.47%
New York Giants	2.34%	1.33%	0.38%	1.53%	0.97%	0.27%	1.56%	1.37%	1.47%		1.91%	1.39%	0.98%	1.15%	0.67%	0.45%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.39%	1.75%	0.47%	1.91%	1.61%	0.27%	1.59%	1.90%	1.64%	2.55%		1.62%	1.37%	1.13%	1.33%	0.70%
San Francisco 49ers	1.06%	1.15%	0.40%	1.01%	0.71%	0.13%	0.56%	0.94%	1.30%	1.02%	0.88%		0.46%	0.34%	1.04%	0.46%
Seattle Seahawks	0.61%	0.77%	0.24%	0.46%	0.49%	0.03%	0.29%	0.47%	0.80%	0.48%	0.39%	0.29%		0.20%	0.35%	0.22%
St. Louis Rams	0.54%	0.61%	0.16%	0.47%	0.42%	0.03%	0.30%	0.40%	0.74%	0.38%	0.41%	0.19%	0.12%		0.37%	0.27%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.66%	0.32%	0.09%	0.42%	0.37%	0.01%	0.58%	0.58%	0.38%	0.60%	0.78%	1.09%	0.85%	0.77%		0.18%
Washington Redskins	0.39%	0.23%	0.07%	0.29%	0.15%	0.01%	0.14%	0.25%	0.15%	0.12%	0.22%	0.25%	0.26%	0.20%	0.08%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.09%	0.13%	0.11%	0.39%	1.06%	4.26%	0.54%	2.02%	0.68%	3.30%	3.72%	0.62%	4.83%	5.18%	2.12%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%								0.01%					0.02%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%				0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	0.05%		0.07%	0.05%	0.01%	0.08%	0.11%	0.04%
Cleveland Browns	0.06%				0.03%	0.01%	0.08%	0.02%	0.08%	0.06%	0.07%	0.07%		0.09%	0.07%	0.11%
Denver Broncos	0.01%					0.03%	0.08%		0.03%	0.03%	0.06%	0.11%		0.01%	0.04%	0.04%
Houston Texans	0.34%	0.04%	0.02%	0.05%	0.08%		0.34%	0.03%	0.26%	0.09%	0.43%	0.57%	0.07%	0.67%	0.60%	0.18%
Indianapolis Colts	2.81%	0.04%	0.21%	0.18%	0.38%	0.55%		0.28%	1.83%	0.64%	2.77%	3.34%	0.38%	3.33%	4.34%	1.50%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.21%			0.02%	0.05%	0.02%	0.14%		0.11%	0.04%	0.17%	0.16%	0.05%	0.34%	0.36%	0.12%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.94%		0.05%	0.07%	0.07%	0.46%	1.05%	0.14%		0.16%	0.66%	0.96%	0.08%	0.87%	0.83%	0.66%
Miami Dolphins	0.20%		0.05%	0.01%	0.07%	0.08%	0.26%	0.07%	0.16%		0.22%	0.15%	0.01%	0.29%	0.42%	0.13%
New England Patriots	4.81%	0.06%	0.25%	0.40%	0.47%	1.46%	5.39%	0.90%	2.72%	0.63%		6.40%	0.76%	5.87%	6.82%	2.95%
New York Jets	3.25%	0.08%	0.23%	0.29%	0.29%	1.10%	3.90%	0.57%	2.28%	0.52%	3.43%		0.54%	3.89%	4.68%	2.27%
Oakland Raiders	0.27%	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.09%	0.22%	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%	0.16%	0.26%		0.25%	0.18%	0.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.51%	0.13%	0.25%	0.30%	0.39%	1.45%	4.78%	0.66%	2.06%	0.74%	3.30%	4.64%	0.54%		5.00%	2.48%
San Diego Chargers	3.36%	0.09%	0.17%	0.27%	0.20%	1.42%	3.95%	0.68%	1.28%	0.64%	2.59%	3.73%	0.33%	4.20%		2.41%
Tennessee Titans	0.84%	0.03%	0.08%	0.08%	0.13%	0.24%	0.68%	0.09%	0.57%	0.12%	0.52%	0.92%	0.12%	0.89%	1.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.33%	0.01%	0.32%	0.23%	0.01%	0.27%	0.17%	0.46%	0.20%	0.49%	0.10%	0.04%	0.03%	0.09%	0.06%
Atlanta Falcons	2.09%		0.18%	2.75%	1.59%	0.14%	4.59%	1.68%	9.07%	3.15%	4.55%	1.86%	1.23%	1.16%	1.38%	0.62%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.04%		0.02%	0.04%		0.05%	0.03%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%		0.02%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	1.06%	1.70%	0.07%		0.81%	0.02%	1.67%	0.65%	2.57%	1.57%	2.48%	0.77%	0.57%	0.45%	0.44%	0.33%
Dallas Cowboys	0.54%	0.58%	0.03%	0.74%		0.03%	0.87%	0.42%	0.98%	0.55%	0.62%	0.37%	0.22%	0.14%	0.25%	0.06%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.04%		0.04%	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%	0.08%	0.03%	0.06%	0.02%				0.02%
Green Bay Packers	2.40%	4.63%	0.27%	2.81%	1.97%	0.15%		1.90%	5.84%	4.27%	5.78%	2.08%	1.44%	1.15%	1.39%	0.70%
Minnesota Vikings	0.44%	0.63%	0.06%	0.21%	0.41%	0.01%	0.54%		0.93%	0.61%	0.99%	0.52%	0.19%	0.25%	0.21%	0.17%
New Orleans Saints	2.31%	7.74%	0.27%	3.30%	1.99%	0.21%	4.66%	2.13%		3.62%	4.99%	2.24%	1.25%	1.13%	1.64%	0.74%
New York Giants	0.95%	1.70%	0.06%	1.47%	0.58%	0.03%	2.29%	1.09%	2.64%		1.75%	1.10%	0.46%	0.45%	0.55%	0.14%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.95%	3.50%	0.11%	2.69%	1.08%	0.11%	4.26%	1.99%	4.15%	2.30%		1.77%	1.11%	0.85%	1.16%	0.44%
San Francisco 49ers	0.13%	0.43%	0.01%	0.40%	0.34%	0.04%	0.63%	0.33%	0.97%	0.60%	0.83%		0.02%	0.01%	0.12%	0.06%
Seattle Seahawks	0.03%	0.16%	0.02%	0.13%	0.15%	0.01%	0.30%	0.18%	0.37%	0.21%	0.32%	0.01%			0.07%	0.05%
St. Louis Rams	0.06%	0.21%	0.03%	0.14%	0.06%		0.23%	0.09%	0.23%	0.15%	0.29%	0.02%	0.02%		0.02%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.28%	0.61%	0.01%	0.43%	0.25%	0.03%	0.69%	0.24%	1.01%	0.50%	0.63%	0.35%	0.18%	0.08%		0.09%
Washington Redskins	0.11%	0.11%	0.01%	0.10%		0.01%	0.18%	0.05%	0.19%	0.08%	0.10%	0.07%	0.06%	0.05%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.01%	0.03%	0.05%	0.08%	0.48%	2.26%	0.14%	0.92%	0.24%	3.31%	3.11%	0.20%	1.66%	2.58%	0.77%
Buffalo Bills															0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.01%					0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%			0.02%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%					0.02%	0.03%				0.02%	0.01%		0.01%	0.04%
Denver Broncos	0.02%						0.02%			0.01%				0.01%
Houston Texans	0.15%						0.06%		0.05%	0.01%	0.19%	0.17%		0.21%	0.20%	0.03%
Indianapolis Colts	1.62%		0.03%	0.05%	0.02%	0.06%		0.06%	0.47%	0.19%	1.83%	1.84%	0.14%	2.12%	1.37%	0.21%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.05%						0.03%				0.06%	0.13%	0.01%	0.07%	0.08%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.33%			0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.20%	0.03%		0.08%	0.32%	0.36%		0.41%	0.23%	0.17%
Miami Dolphins	0.08%		0.01%	0.02%		0.02%	0.15%	0.03%			0.10%	0.08%	0.03%	0.15%	0.11%	0.02%
New England Patriots	4.90%	0.01%	0.17%	0.19%	0.09%	0.86%	4.12%	0.39%	1.26%	0.19%		3.11%	0.29%	5.05%	4.63%	1.13%
New York Jets	2.22%	0.01%	0.07%	0.14%	0.06%	0.33%	1.84%	0.21%	0.80%	0.10%	1.59%		0.22%	2.74%	2.30%	0.70%
Oakland Raiders	0.05%		0.01%	0.01%		0.05%	0.07%	0.01%		0.01%	0.06%	0.09%		0.14%	0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.50%		0.06%	0.06%	0.09%	0.52%	2.30%	0.28%	0.95%	0.29%	3.64%	2.88%	0.24%		2.63%	0.88%
San Diego Chargers	1.95%		0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	0.24%	1.32%	0.18%	0.21%	0.16%	1.97%	1.90%	0.04%	2.10%		0.58%
Tennessee Titans	0.31%			0.04%		0.03%	0.14%		0.09%	0.03%	0.38%	0.30%	0.01%	0.24%	0.32%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.11%		0.04%	0.01%		0.06%	0.01%	0.10%	0.06%	0.07%	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.47%		0.03%	2.38%	0.90%	0.04%	4.52%	1.02%	3.20%	2.58%	3.77%	0.98%	0.42%	0.22%	0.45%	0.27%
Carolina Panthers				0.01%			0.02%		0.01%	0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.18%	1.43%	0.04%		0.32%	0.02%	0.62%	0.17%	1.61%	0.59%	1.10%	0.27%	0.12%	0.10%	0.27%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys	0.05%	0.50%		0.18%		0.02%	0.37%	0.09%	0.55%	0.10%	0.18%	0.04%	0.03%	0.05%	0.09%
Detroit Lions	0.01%			0.01%			0.02%		0.02%		0.03%		0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.59%	4.93%	0.06%	1.12%	0.99%	0.03%		0.60%	5.83%	1.81%	3.66%	0.64%	0.28%	0.23%	1.02%	0.21%
Minnesota Vikings	0.07%	0.41%		0.09%	0.06%		0.21%		0.48%	0.17%	0.27%	0.06%	0.11%	0.01%	0.11%	0.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.51%	2.62%	0.06%	2.22%	1.03%	0.08%	4.82%	1.08%		2.32%	3.66%	0.70%	0.31%	0.26%	0.52%	0.22%
New York Giants	0.15%	1.41%	0.01%	0.54%	0.18%	0.02%	0.92%	0.25%	1.71%		0.57%	0.24%	0.06%	0.10%	0.22%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.24%	2.62%	0.06%	1.26%	0.37%	0.04%	2.43%	0.71%	3.50%	0.79%		0.41%	0.16%	0.18%	0.52%	0.08%
San Francisco 49ers	0.02%	0.31%		0.12%	0.10%		0.24%	0.02%	0.26%	0.19%	0.21%		0.01%		0.01%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks		0.09%		0.03%	0.02%		0.08%	0.05%	0.13%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%				0.01%
St. Louis Rams		0.06%		0.02%	0.03%		0.03%		0.08%	0.03%	0.10%				0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.24%	0.01%	0.23%	0.13%		0.39%	0.09%	0.27%	0.18%	0.44%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%
Washington Redskins		0.06%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%		0.05%	0.01%	0.06%	0.01%	0.02%				0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals														0.01%		0.03%	0.01%		0.02%							0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			1.72%				0.03%	0.01%		0.01%			0.14%	1.12%	0.06%	0.31%	0.13%		2.21%			1.51%	0.03%		1.83%	1.61%					0.28%
Baltimore Ravens	0.03%	1.78%				0.68%			0.24%		0.02%	1.77%						0.24%		1.96%	0.71%			1.32%			0.12%	0.05%	0.05%	0.22%		0.05%
Buffalo Bills		0.01%
Chicago Bears			0.50%	0.01%			0.01%	0.01%		0.02%			0.05%	0.33%	0.03%	0.09%	0.02%		0.66%			0.32%	0.04%		0.46%	0.33%					0.09%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.01%										0.02%												0.01%
Cleveland Browns												0.02%								0.01%				0.03%
Dallas Cowboys			0.09%					0.01%					0.01%	0.08%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%		0.21%			0.14%	0.01%		0.15%	0.03%					0.05%
Denver Broncos												0.01%								0.01%
Green Bay Packers			1.90%				0.02%	0.03%					0.12%	1.46%	0.07%	0.25%	0.11%		2.12%			1.56%	0.09%		2.09%	1.32%					0.35%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.01%				0.02%			0.01%			0.10%						0.01%		0.11%	0.05%			0.04%			0.01%	0.01%		0.03%
Indianapolis Colts	0.06%	0.92%				0.35%			0.14%			0.93%						0.14%		0.95%	0.41%			0.62%			0.12%	0.01%	0.03%	0.09%		0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.02%				0.01%						0.03%								0.03%	0.01%			0.02%			0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.13%				0.05%			0.04%			0.19%						0.02%		0.20%	0.06%			0.14%			0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%
Miami Dolphins		0.05%				0.01%			0.01%			0.01%						0.01%		0.05%	0.02%			0.11%
Minnesota Vikings			0.10%										0.02%	0.09%		0.02%	0.01%		0.13%			0.06%			0.13%	0.10%					0.04%
New England Patriots	0.14%	3.36%			0.03%	1.20%			0.48%		0.03%	3.24%						0.35%		3.68%	1.04%			2.56%			0.36%	0.09%	0.09%	0.43%		0.08%
New Orleans Saints			1.11%				0.01%	0.01%					0.13%	1.08%	0.06%	0.31%	0.11%		2.07%			1.19%	0.05%		1.53%	1.19%					0.23%
New York Giants			0.23%										0.09%	0.35%	0.03%	0.06%	0.05%		0.47%			0.33%			0.39%	0.27%					0.07%
New York Jets	0.04%	1.34%			0.02%	0.53%			0.14%		0.02%	1.46%						0.11%		1.43%	0.65%			1.02%			0.09%	0.07%	0.01%	0.20%		0.02%
Oakland Raiders		0.02%				0.03%						0.03%						0.02%		0.08%	0.03%			0.03%					0.02%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.82%	0.01%			0.03%	0.01%		0.01%			0.05%	0.51%	0.05%	0.20%	0.05%		1.08%			0.85%	0.03%		0.96%	0.61%					0.15%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.05%	1.50%				0.70%			0.27%		0.01%	1.69%						0.26%		1.73%	0.67%			1.22%			0.23%	0.09%	0.02%	0.11%		0.04%
San Diego Chargers	0.08%	0.99%				0.30%			0.07%		0.02%	0.87%						0.20%		0.99%	0.34%			0.74%			0.17%	0.06%	0.04%	0.18%		0.03%
San Francisco 49ers			0.02%					0.01%					0.02%	0.05%		0.02%	0.01%		0.07%			0.04%	0.01%		0.07%	0.04%					0.01%
Seattle Seahawks			0.01%											0.01%					0.02%			0.01%			0.03%
St. Louis Rams													0.01%	0.01%	0.01%				0.02%			0.02%			0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.10%										0.02%	0.11%		0.02%	0.02%		0.15%			0.15%			0.05%	0.15%					0.03%
Tennessee Titans		0.11%				0.03%			0.03%			0.14%						0.01%		0.10%	0.06%			0.09%			0.01%			0.01%
Washington Redskins																0.01%										0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New England Patriots	100.00%	69.38%	47.20%	29.52%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Atlanta Falcons	100.00%	57.55%	35.92%	16.02%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	100.00%	59.23%	23.45%	11.80%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Chicago Bears	100.00%	53.48%	20.64%	7.84%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Baltimore Ravens	66.94%	27.61%	12.97%	7.64%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	52.73%	25.17%	14.46%	7.32%	Won Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	76.31%	35.40%	16.88%	7.15%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Philadelphia Eagles	47.27%	23.15%	11.02%	4.47%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Indianapolis Colts	53.90%	21.46%	7.86%	3.87%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Jets	46.10%	14.58%	6.37%	3.35%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Kansas City Chiefs	33.06%	7.74%	2.15%	0.77%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Seattle Seahawks	23.69%	5.25%	1.08%	0.25%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New York Jets
Baltimore Ravens			66.94%
Indianapolis Colts				53.90%
Kansas City Chiefs	33.06%
New York Jets		46.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Green Bay Packers			52.73%
New Orleans Saints				76.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	47.27%
Seattle Seahawks		23.69%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens				12.55%		15.06%
Indianapolis Colts						21.46%
Kansas City Chiefs				3.49%		4.25%
New England Patriots	23.57%		14.29%		31.52%
New York Jets				14.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	15.76%	32.44%	11.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons			27.56%	21.07%		8.92%
Chicago Bears				19.84%	24.12%	9.52%
Green Bay Packers	25.17%
New Orleans Saints	15.06%	20.34%
Philadelphia Eagles		23.15%
Seattle Seahawks	2.22%	3.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens		2.72%		3.94%	2.75%	3.56%
Indianapolis Colts	2.45%		1.00%	4.41%
Kansas City Chiefs		0.39%		0.58%	0.52%	0.66%
New England Patriots	6.33%	10.49%	2.40%			27.98%
New York Jets	2.04%		0.75%			3.58%
Pittsburgh Steelers	3.82%		1.44%	13.25%	4.94%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons		20.03%		6.20%	8.47%	1.22%
Chicago Bears	10.37%		5.71%	3.62%		0.94%
Green Bay Packers		8.45%		4.78%		1.23%
New Orleans Saints	4.73%	4.05%	4.63%		3.47%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.32%			3.92%		0.78%
Seattle Seahawks	0.21%	0.31%	0.37%		0.19%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Chicago Bears	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons		2.14%			1.30%	0.50%	6.60%		1.09%		4.39%
Baltimore Ravens	2.89%		1.64%	1.02%				1.13%		0.81%		0.15%
Chicago Bears		0.90%			0.83%	0.25%	2.96%		0.65%		2.25%
Green Bay Packers		0.91%			0.66%	0.19%	3.10%		0.46%		2.00%
Indianapolis Colts	1.37%		0.84%	0.37%				0.78%		0.45%		0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.24%		0.21%	0.04%				0.14%		0.13%		0.01%
New England Patriots	10.11%		6.44%	3.84%				5.25%		3.48%		0.40%
New Orleans Saints		0.89%			0.77%	0.29%	2.92%		0.43%		1.85%
New York Jets	1.12%		0.99%	0.36%				0.53%		0.32%		0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.46%			0.42%	0.15%	1.99%		0.39%		1.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.17%		2.68%	1.51%				1.90%		1.36%		0.18%
Seattle Seahawks		0.03%			0.01%		0.11%				0.10%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

New England Patriots 29.52% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

45.43%

Win Prob

68.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

59.28%

Win Prob

67.86%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

34.25%

Win Prob

60.50%

Atlanta Falcons 16.02% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

47.89%

Win Prob

52.27%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

55.76%

Win Prob

65.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

41.20%

Win Prob

39.50%

Pittsburgh Steelers 11.80% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

54.77%

Win Prob

60.19%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

56.50%

Win Prob

32.14%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

35.34%

Win Prob

48.71%

Chicago Bears 7.84% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

45.10%

Win Prob

51.03%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

50.24%

Win Prob

34.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

37.76%

Win Prob

31.49%

Baltimore Ravens 7.64% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.94%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

54.55%

Win Prob

48.86%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

30.38%

Win Prob

38.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

37.83%

Win Prob

57.46%

Green Bay Packers 7.32% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

52.73%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.73%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

58.44%

Win Prob

59.68%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

42.35%

Win Prob

44.67%

New Orleans Saints 7.15% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

76.31%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

57.46%

Win Prob

50.62%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

28.02%

Win Prob

43.28%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

40.84%

Win Prob

35.74%

Philadelphia Eagles 4.47% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

47.27%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.97%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

57.35%

Win Prob

42.73%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.52%

Win Prob

36.38%

Indianapolis Colts 3.87% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Jets

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.90%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.81%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

56.11%

Win Prob

29.60%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

35.40%

Win Prob

51.31%

New York Jets 3.35% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.10%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

56.20%

Win Prob

42.02%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

33.43%

Win Prob

50.68%

Kansas City Chiefs 0.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.06%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

54.91%

Win Prob

27.81%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

30.70%

Win Prob

31.43%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

31.17%

Win Prob

32.43%

Seattle Seahawks 0.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

23.69%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Chicago Bears

Matchup

57.71%

Win Prob

24.14%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

34.26%

Win Prob

23.12%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.00%

Win Prob

21.57%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2010-09-12	@ St. Louis Rams	W 17-13	1518.28	1376.12	64.16%	35.60%	+9.92	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 7-41	1528.20	1511.70	46.50%	53.26%	-37.74	1-1
2010-09-26	Oakland Raiders	W 24-23	1490.46	1386.32	69.49%	30.27%	+4.22	2-1
2010-10-03	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-41	1494.68	1543.93	37.32%	62.44%	-28.93	2-2
2010-10-10	New Orleans Saints	W 30-20	1465.75	1607.67	35.63%	64.13%	+28.21	3-2
2010-10-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-22	1493.96	1448.80	50.62%	49.14%	-24.40	3-3
2010-10-31	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 35-38	1469.56	1452.89	57.96%	41.80%	-13.97	3-4
2010-11-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-27	1455.59	1514.92	35.97%	63.79%	-8.67	3-5
2010-11-14	Seattle Seahawks	L 18-36	1446.92	1405.09	61.44%	38.32%	-36.25	3-6
2010-11-21	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-31	1410.67	1449.02	38.80%	60.96%	-22.92	3-7
2010-11-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-27	1387.75	1412.52	52.07%	47.69%	-33.19	3-8
2010-12-05	St. Louis Rams	L 6-19	1354.56	1395.28	49.78%	49.98%	-24.97	3-9
2010-12-12	Denver Broncos	W 43-13	1329.59	1376.84	48.84%	50.92%	+38.80	4-9
2010-12-19	@ Carolina Panthers	L 12-19	1368.39	1312.64	52.15%	47.62%	-19.19	4-10
2010-12-25	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-26	1349.20	1496.84	34.88%	64.88%	+9.02	5-10
2011-01-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-38	1358.22	1419.46	35.72%	64.04%	-27.69	5-11
2010-09-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-15	1525.73	1547.02	41.15%	58.61%	-14.03	0-1
2010-09-19	Arizona Cardinals	W 41-7	1511.70	1528.20	53.26%	46.50%	+37.73	1-1
2010-09-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-24	1549.43	1618.42	34.70%	65.06%	+15.67	2-1
2010-10-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-14	1565.10	1425.78	73.59%	26.17%	+5.16	3-1
2010-10-10	@ Cleveland Browns	W 20-10	1570.26	1427.91	64.19%	35.57%	+15.66	4-1
2010-10-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-31	1585.92	1552.30	48.96%	50.80%	-25.49	4-2
2010-10-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 39-32	1560.43	1488.78	65.41%	34.35%	+12.66	5-2
2010-11-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-21	1573.09	1466.85	69.75%	30.01%	+10.24	6-2
2010-11-11	Baltimore Ravens	W 26-21	1583.33	1607.63	52.14%	47.62%	+14.81	7-2
2010-11-21	@ St. Louis Rams	W 34-17	1598.14	1397.54	71.45%	28.31%	+16.26	8-2
2010-11-28	Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1614.40	1643.21	51.49%	48.27%	+11.63	9-2
2010-12-05	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-24	1626.03	1496.60	62.47%	37.29%	+10.39	10-2
2010-12-12	@ Carolina Panthers	W 31-10	1636.42	1323.59	82.61%	17.15%	+10.94	11-2
2010-12-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-18	1647.36	1395.12	77.08%	22.68%	+12.64	12-2
2010-12-27	New Orleans Saints	L 14-17	1660.00	1635.24	59.09%	40.67%	-14.23	12-3
2011-01-02	Carolina Panthers	W 31-10	1645.77	1322.51	88.81%	10.95%	+6.99	13-3
2010-09-13	@ New York Jets	W 10-9	1565.26	1567.08	43.89%	55.87%	+7.77	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-15	1573.03	1472.52	58.50%	41.26%	-18.19	1-1
2010-09-26	Cleveland Browns	W 24-17	1554.84	1423.68	72.67%	27.09%	+9.98	2-1
2010-10-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-14	1564.82	1611.18	37.71%	62.05%	+14.95	3-1
2010-10-10	Denver Broncos	W 31-17	1579.77	1484.03	68.46%	31.30%	+16.31	4-1
2010-10-17	@ New England Patriots	L 20-23	1596.08	1590.69	44.92%	54.84%	-10.83	4-2
2010-10-24	Buffalo Bills	W 37-34	1585.25	1370.07	81.12%	18.64%	+4.50	5-2
2010-11-07	Miami Dolphins	W 26-10	1589.75	1500.40	67.66%	32.10%	+17.88	6-2
2010-11-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-26	1607.63	1583.33	47.62%	52.14%	-14.82	6-3
2010-11-21	@ Carolina Panthers	W 37-13	1592.81	1365.96	74.42%	25.34%	+17.29	7-3
2010-11-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 17-10	1610.10	1507.83	69.26%	30.50%	+11.24	8-3
2010-12-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-13	1621.34	1607.46	57.57%	42.19%	-13.87	8-4
2010-12-13	@ Houston Texans	W 34-28	1607.47	1475.05	62.87%	36.89%	+12.58	9-4
2010-12-19	New Orleans Saints	W 30-24	1620.05	1651.83	51.06%	48.70%	+16.60	10-4
2010-12-26	@ Cleveland Browns	W 20-10	1636.65	1444.36	70.47%	29.29%	+12.90	11-4
2011-01-02	Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-7	1649.55	1420.91	82.27%	17.49%	+5.97	12-4
2010-09-12	Miami Dolphins	L 10-15	1459.56	1486.85	51.71%	48.05%	-16.08	0-1
2010-09-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-34	1443.48	1573.45	27.23%	72.54%	-19.71	0-2
2010-09-26	@ New England Patriots	L 30-38	1423.77	1544.98	28.24%	71.52%	-11.12	0-3
2010-10-03	New York Jets	L 14-38	1412.65	1601.33	29.72%	70.04%	-20.28	0-4
2010-10-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 26-36	1392.37	1426.79	50.68%	49.08%	-22.30	0-5
2010-10-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 34-37	1370.07	1585.25	18.64%	81.12%	-4.49	0-6
2010-10-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-13	1365.58	1490.55	27.80%	71.96%	-6.71	0-7
2010-11-07	Chicago Bears	L 19-22	1358.87	1492.23	36.77%	62.99%	-8.87	0-8
2010-11-14	Detroit Lions	W 14-12	1350.00	1405.26	47.69%	52.07%	+10.25	1-8
2010-11-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 49-31	1360.25	1433.97	34.09%	65.67%	+38.75	2-8
2010-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-19	1399.00	1600.67	28.18%	71.58%	-6.80	2-9
2010-12-05	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-38	1392.20	1484.23	31.76%	68.00%	-21.66	2-10
2010-12-12	Cleveland Browns	W 13-6	1370.54	1477.28	40.40%	59.36%	+21.84	3-10
2010-12-19	@ Miami Dolphins	W 17-14	1392.38	1515.07	28.06%	71.70%	+17.27	4-10
2010-12-26	New England Patriots	L 3-34	1409.65	1719.51	17.39%	82.37%	-13.49	4-11
2011-01-02	@ New York Jets	L 7-38	1396.16	1594.87	20.12%	79.64%	-15.61	4-12
2010-09-12	@ New York Giants	L 18-31	1536.16	1492.83	50.36%	49.40%	-25.26	0-1
2010-09-19	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-20	1510.90	1459.78	62.69%	37.07%	-31.44	0-2
2010-09-26	Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-20	1479.46	1490.71	54.01%	45.75%	-27.09	0-3
2010-10-03	@ New Orleans Saints	L 14-16	1452.37	1602.75	24.96%	74.80%	-4.91	0-4
2010-10-10	Chicago Bears	L 6-23	1447.46	1495.47	48.73%	51.03%	-27.96	0-5
2010-10-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-20	1419.50	1428.01	54.40%	45.36%	+10.94	1-5
2010-10-31	@ St. Louis Rams	L 10-20	1430.44	1384.93	50.67%	49.09%	-22.30	1-6
2010-11-07	New Orleans Saints	L 3-34	1408.14	1589.91	30.56%	69.20%	-23.69	1-7
2010-11-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-31	1384.45	1456.61	34.29%	65.47%	-18.49	1-8
2010-11-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-37	1365.96	1592.81	25.34%	74.42%	-17.30	1-9
2010-11-28	@ Cleveland Browns	L 23-24	1348.66	1458.14	29.62%	70.14%	-4.12	1-10
2010-12-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-31	1344.54	1399.90	36.50%	63.26%	-20.95	1-11
2010-12-12	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-31	1323.59	1636.42	17.15%	82.61%	-10.95	1-12
2010-12-19	Arizona Cardinals	W 19-12	1312.64	1368.39	47.62%	52.15%	+19.19	2-12
2010-12-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-27	1331.83	1611.42	13.65%	86.11%	-9.32	2-13
2011-01-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 10-31	1322.51	1645.77	10.95%	88.81%	-7.00	2-14
2010-09-12	Detroit Lions	W 19-14	1476.79	1381.22	68.44%	31.32%	+9.75	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 27-20	1486.54	1540.79	36.65%	63.11%	+23.23	2-0
2010-09-27	Green Bay Packers	W 20-17	1509.77	1593.15	43.67%	56.09%	+13.51	3-0
2010-10-03	@ New York Giants	L 3-17	1523.28	1458.63	53.42%	46.34%	-27.81	3-1
2010-10-10	@ Carolina Panthers	W 23-6	1495.47	1447.46	51.03%	48.73%	+27.96	4-1
2010-10-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-23	1523.43	1432.45	67.87%	31.89%	-16.35	4-2
2010-10-24	Washington Redskins	L 14-17	1507.08	1463.76	61.64%	38.12%	-14.85	4-3
2010-11-07	@ Buffalo Bills	W 22-19	1492.23	1358.87	62.99%	36.77%	+8.87	5-3
2010-11-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-13	1501.10	1523.59	52.40%	47.36%	+24.66	6-3
2010-11-18	@ Miami Dolphins	W 16-0	1525.76	1510.47	46.33%	53.43%	+29.73	7-3
2010-11-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-26	1555.49	1609.73	47.83%	51.93%	+16.15	8-3
2010-12-05	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-20	1571.64	1361.52	72.55%	27.21%	+7.58	9-3
2010-12-12	New England Patriots	L 7-36	1579.22	1679.61	41.28%	58.48%	-30.94	9-4
2010-12-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 40-14	1548.28	1481.29	53.76%	46.00%	+32.64	10-4
2010-12-26	New York Jets	W 38-34	1580.92	1608.25	51.70%	48.06%	+13.38	11-4
2011-01-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-10	1594.30	1640.83	37.69%	62.08%	-13.88	11-5
2010-09-12	@ New England Patriots	L 24-38	1491.31	1549.87	36.07%	63.69%	-18.79	0-1
2010-09-19	Baltimore Ravens	W 15-10	1472.52	1573.03	41.26%	58.50%	+18.19	1-1
2010-09-26	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-7	1490.71	1479.46	45.75%	54.01%	+27.09	2-1
2010-10-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 20-23	1517.80	1413.70	59.00%	40.76%	-14.21	2-2
2010-10-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-24	1503.59	1461.50	61.47%	38.29%	-14.81	2-3
2010-10-24	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 32-39	1488.78	1560.43	34.35%	65.41%	-12.66	2-4
2010-10-31	Miami Dolphins	L 14-22	1476.12	1478.67	55.25%	44.51%	-21.74	2-5
2010-11-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-27	1454.38	1591.85	36.22%	63.54%	-12.35	2-6
2010-11-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-23	1442.03	1605.06	23.62%	76.14%	-8.06	2-7
2010-11-21	Buffalo Bills	L 31-49	1433.97	1360.25	65.67%	34.09%	-38.75	2-8
2010-11-25	@ New York Jets	L 10-26	1395.22	1641.17	16.10%	83.66%	-8.97	2-9
2010-12-05	New Orleans Saints	L 30-34	1386.25	1634.68	23.07%	76.70%	-6.43	2-10
2010-12-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-23	1379.82	1621.33	16.45%	83.31%	-9.17	2-11
2010-12-19	Cleveland Browns	W 19-17	1370.65	1455.43	43.47%	56.29%	+11.07	3-11
2010-12-26	San Diego Chargers	W 34-20	1381.72	1616.78	24.46%	75.30%	+39.19	4-11
2011-01-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-13	1420.91	1649.55	17.49%	82.27%	-5.97	4-12
2010-09-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-17	1444.53	1449.30	43.47%	56.29%	-10.48	0-1
2010-09-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-16	1434.05	1454.45	52.70%	47.06%	-10.37	0-2
2010-09-26	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-24	1423.68	1554.84	27.09%	72.67%	-9.98	0-3
2010-10-03	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-20	1413.70	1517.80	40.76%	59.00%	+14.21	1-3
2010-10-10	Atlanta Falcons	L 10-20	1427.91	1570.26	35.57%	64.19%	-15.66	1-4
2010-10-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-28	1412.25	1596.23	21.52%	78.24%	-12.72	1-5
2010-10-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-17	1399.53	1607.92	19.24%	80.52%	+40.38	2-5
2010-11-07	New England Patriots	W 34-14	1439.91	1626.88	29.93%	69.83%	+43.44	3-5
2010-11-14	New York Jets	L 20-26	1483.35	1623.57	35.85%	63.91%	-12.23	3-6
2010-11-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-24	1471.12	1453.79	46.62%	53.14%	-12.98	3-7
2010-11-28	Carolina Panthers	W 24-23	1458.14	1348.66	70.14%	29.62%	+4.13	4-7
2010-12-05	@ Miami Dolphins	W 13-10	1462.27	1510.44	37.46%	62.30%	+15.01	5-7
2010-12-12	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-13	1477.28	1370.54	59.36%	40.40%	-21.85	5-8
2010-12-19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-19	1455.43	1370.65	56.29%	43.47%	-11.07	5-9
2010-12-26	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-20	1444.36	1636.65	29.29%	70.47%	-12.90	5-10
2011-01-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-41	1431.46	1620.74	29.65%	70.11%	-23.36	5-11
2010-09-12	@ Washington Redskins	L 7-13	1560.86	1457.60	58.88%	40.88%	-20.07	0-1
2010-09-19	Chicago Bears	L 20-27	1540.79	1486.54	63.11%	36.65%	-23.22	0-2
2010-09-26	@ Houston Texans	W 27-13	1517.57	1561.35	38.06%	61.70%	+32.11	1-2
2010-10-10	Tennessee Titans	L 27-34	1549.68	1523.18	59.33%	40.43%	-21.83	1-3
2010-10-17	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 21-24	1527.85	1530.75	43.74%	56.02%	-10.55	1-4
2010-10-25	New York Giants	L 35-41	1517.30	1540.08	52.36%	47.40%	-17.84	1-5
2010-10-31	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-35	1499.46	1394.23	69.62%	30.14%	-41.08	1-6
2010-11-07	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-45	1458.38	1591.24	26.90%	72.86%	-23.09	1-7
2010-11-14	@ New York Giants	W 33-20	1435.29	1589.04	24.60%	75.16%	+37.69	2-7
2010-11-21	Detroit Lions	W 35-19	1472.98	1395.01	66.22%	33.54%	+18.68	3-7
2010-11-25	New Orleans Saints	L 27-30	1491.66	1625.84	36.66%	63.10%	-8.84	3-8
2010-12-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-35	1482.82	1563.48	33.20%	66.57%	+16.03	4-8
2010-12-12	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-30	1498.85	1606.85	40.22%	59.54%	-9.70	4-9
2010-12-19	Washington Redskins	W 33-30	1489.15	1397.94	67.90%	31.86%	+7.69	5-9
2010-12-25	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 26-27	1496.84	1349.20	64.88%	34.88%	-9.02	5-10
2011-01-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 14-13	1487.82	1600.98	29.18%	70.58%	+9.81	6-10
2010-09-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-24	1475.49	1444.25	48.62%	51.14%	-17.89	0-1
2010-09-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-14	1457.60	1467.26	54.23%	45.53%	+26.12	1-1
2010-09-26	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-27	1483.72	1569.69	43.31%	56.46%	-22.55	1-2
2010-10-03	@ Tennessee Titans	W 26-20	1461.17	1546.04	32.66%	67.10%	+22.86	2-2
2010-10-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-31	1484.03	1579.77	31.30%	68.46%	-16.31	2-3
2010-10-17	New York Jets	L 20-24	1467.72	1635.68	32.27%	67.49%	-8.99	2-4
2010-10-24	Oakland Raiders	L 14-59	1458.73	1380.87	66.21%	33.55%	-61.77	2-5
2010-10-31	San Francisco 49ers	L 16-24	1396.96	1417.08	46.99%	52.77%	-18.49	2-6
2010-11-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 49-29	1378.47	1486.01	40.29%	59.48%	+36.99	3-6
2010-11-22	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-35	1415.46	1556.25	26.01%	73.75%	-16.60	3-7
2010-11-28	St. Louis Rams	L 33-36	1398.86	1381.29	58.09%	41.67%	-13.99	3-8
2010-12-05	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 6-10	1384.87	1501.14	28.82%	70.94%	-8.03	3-9
2010-12-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-43	1376.84	1329.59	50.92%	48.84%	-38.81	3-10
2010-12-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 23-39	1338.03	1461.28	28.00%	71.76%	-15.59	3-11
2010-12-26	Houston Texans	W 24-23	1322.44	1439.46	38.98%	60.78%	+8.45	4-11
2011-01-02	San Diego Chargers	L 28-33	1330.89	1577.59	23.24%	76.52%	-7.24	4-12
2010-09-12	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-19	1381.22	1476.79	31.32%	68.44%	-9.75	0-1
2010-09-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 32-35	1371.47	1528.51	33.66%	66.10%	-8.12	0-2
2010-09-26	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1363.35	1532.85	22.96%	76.80%	-11.96	0-3
2010-10-03	@ Green Bay Packers	L 26-28	1351.39	1579.64	17.52%	82.24%	-3.46	0-4
2010-10-10	St. Louis Rams	W 44-6	1347.93	1420.38	45.22%	54.54%	+46.77	1-4
2010-10-17	@ New York Giants	L 20-28	1394.70	1529.57	26.67%	73.09%	-10.51	1-5
2010-10-31	Washington Redskins	W 37-25	1384.19	1478.61	42.11%	57.65%	+27.78	2-5
2010-11-07	New York Jets	L 20-23	1411.97	1616.87	27.81%	71.95%	-6.71	2-6
2010-11-14	@ Buffalo Bills	L 12-14	1405.26	1350.00	52.07%	47.69%	-10.25	2-7
2010-11-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 19-35	1395.01	1472.98	33.54%	66.22%	-18.68	2-8
2010-11-25	New England Patriots	L 24-45	1376.33	1623.45	23.20%	76.56%	-14.81	2-9
2010-12-05	Chicago Bears	L 20-24	1361.52	1571.64	27.21%	72.55%	-7.58	2-10
2010-12-12	Green Bay Packers	W 7-3	1353.94	1644.19	19.07%	80.69%	+22.45	3-10
2010-12-19	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1376.39	1492.32	28.86%	70.90%	+17.08	4-10
2010-12-26	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-27	1393.47	1497.80	30.25%	69.52%	+25.58	5-10
2011-01-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-13	1419.05	1483.18	46.41%	53.35%	+19.63	6-10
2010-09-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1553.22	1548.74	44.79%	54.97%	+20.23	1-0
2010-09-19	Buffalo Bills	W 34-7	1573.45	1443.48	72.54%	27.23%	+19.70	2-0
2010-09-27	@ Chicago Bears	L 17-20	1593.15	1509.77	56.09%	43.67%	-13.51	2-1
2010-10-03	Detroit Lions	W 28-26	1579.64	1351.39	82.24%	17.52%	+3.45	3-1
2010-10-10	@ Washington Redskins	L 13-16	1583.09	1458.27	61.84%	37.92%	-14.89	3-2
2010-10-17	Miami Dolphins	L 20-23	1568.20	1467.30	69.10%	30.66%	-16.65	3-3
2010-10-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-24	1551.55	1541.29	57.06%	42.70%	+11.89	4-3
2010-10-31	@ New York Jets	W 9-0	1563.44	1644.67	33.12%	66.64%	+27.80	5-3
2010-11-07	Dallas Cowboys	W 45-7	1591.24	1458.38	72.86%	26.90%	+23.10	6-3
2010-11-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-3	1614.34	1498.93	60.56%	39.20%	+28.87	7-3
2010-11-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-20	1643.21	1614.40	48.27%	51.49%	-11.63	7-4
2010-12-05	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-16	1631.58	1445.72	78.43%	21.33%	+12.61	8-4
2010-12-12	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-7	1644.19	1353.94	80.69%	19.07%	-22.45	8-5
2010-12-19	@ New England Patriots	L 27-31	1621.74	1710.55	32.16%	67.60%	-8.95	8-6
2010-12-26	New York Giants	W 45-17	1612.79	1569.10	61.69%	38.07%	+28.04	9-6
2011-01-02	Chicago Bears	W 10-3	1640.83	1594.30	62.08%	37.69%	+13.88	10-6
2010-09-12	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-24	1528.85	1563.46	50.66%	49.10%	+21.61	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Washington Redskins	W 30-27	1550.46	1477.66	54.59%	45.17%	+10.89	2-0
2010-09-26	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-27	1561.35	1517.57	61.70%	38.06%	-32.11	2-1
2010-10-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-24	1529.24	1382.10	64.82%	34.94%	+12.87	3-1
2010-10-10	New York Giants	L 10-34	1542.11	1486.44	63.30%	36.46%	-43.13	3-2
2010-10-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-31	1498.98	1477.45	58.64%	41.12%	+11.45	4-2
2010-11-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-30	1510.43	1599.41	32.14%	67.62%	-16.14	4-3
2010-11-07	San Diego Chargers	L 23-29	1494.29	1539.50	49.13%	50.63%	-16.75	4-4
2010-11-14	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-31	1477.54	1435.31	50.20%	49.56%	-18.47	4-5
2010-11-21	@ New York Jets	L 27-30	1459.07	1635.80	22.23%	77.53%	-5.37	4-6
2010-11-28	Tennessee Titans	W 20-0	1453.70	1534.02	44.11%	55.66%	+34.62	5-6
2010-12-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-34	1488.32	1593.58	30.13%	69.63%	-13.27	5-7
2010-12-13	Baltimore Ravens	L 28-34	1475.05	1607.47	36.89%	62.87%	-12.58	5-8
2010-12-19	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-31	1462.47	1462.24	44.18%	55.58%	-23.01	5-9
2010-12-26	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-24	1439.46	1322.44	60.78%	38.98%	-8.45	5-10
2011-01-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-17	1431.01	1468.70	50.21%	49.55%	+28.42	6-10
2010-09-12	@ Houston Texans	L 24-34	1563.46	1528.85	49.10%	50.66%	-21.60	0-1
2010-09-19	New York Giants	W 38-14	1541.86	1518.09	58.95%	40.81%	+27.83	1-1
2010-09-26	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-13	1569.69	1483.72	56.46%	43.31%	+22.55	2-1
2010-10-03	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 28-31	1592.24	1410.11	69.25%	30.51%	-16.68	2-2
2010-10-10	Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-9	1575.56	1491.90	66.95%	32.81%	+14.45	3-2
2010-10-17	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1590.01	1473.17	60.76%	39.01%	+9.40	4-2
2010-11-01	Houston Texans	W 30-17	1599.41	1510.43	67.62%	32.14%	+16.14	5-2
2010-11-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-26	1615.55	1551.52	53.33%	46.43%	-10.49	5-3
2010-11-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-17	1605.06	1442.03	76.14%	23.62%	+8.06	6-3
2010-11-21	@ New England Patriots	L 28-31	1613.12	1612.80	44.20%	55.56%	-10.66	6-4
2010-11-28	San Diego Chargers	L 14-36	1602.46	1572.85	59.76%	40.00%	-38.98	6-5
2010-12-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 35-38	1563.48	1482.82	66.57%	33.20%	-16.04	6-6
2010-12-09	@ Tennessee Titans	W 30-28	1547.44	1471.03	55.10%	44.66%	+8.79	7-6
2010-12-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-24	1556.23	1501.26	63.21%	36.55%	+16.09	8-6
2010-12-26	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-26	1572.32	1476.88	57.79%	41.97%	+13.07	9-6
2011-01-02	Tennessee Titans	W 23-20	1585.39	1459.50	72.07%	27.69%	+6.68	10-6
2010-09-12	Denver Broncos	W 24-17	1444.25	1475.49	51.14%	48.62%	+17.90	1-0
2010-09-19	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-38	1462.15	1543.69	33.08%	66.68%	-23.04	1-1
2010-09-26	Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-28	1439.11	1536.63	41.68%	58.08%	-29.00	1-2
2010-10-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-28	1410.11	1592.24	30.51%	69.25%	+16.68	2-2
2010-10-10	@ Buffalo Bills	W 36-26	1426.79	1392.37	49.08%	50.68%	+22.30	3-2
2010-10-18	Tennessee Titans	L 3-30	1449.09	1545.02	41.90%	57.86%	-30.31	3-3
2010-10-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-42	1418.78	1466.01	37.59%	62.17%	-24.55	3-4
2010-10-31	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 35-17	1394.23	1499.46	30.14%	69.62%	+41.08	4-4
2010-11-14	Houston Texans	W 31-24	1435.31	1477.54	49.56%	50.20%	+18.48	5-4
2010-11-21	Cleveland Browns	W 24-20	1453.79	1471.12	53.14%	46.62%	+12.98	6-4
2010-11-28	@ New York Giants	L 20-24	1466.77	1534.46	34.87%	64.89%	-9.71	6-5
2010-12-05	@ Tennessee Titans	W 17-6	1457.06	1499.40	38.25%	61.51%	+28.37	7-5
2010-12-12	Oakland Raiders	W 38-31	1485.43	1477.10	56.79%	42.97%	+15.83	8-5
2010-12-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-34	1501.26	1556.23	36.55%	63.21%	-16.10	8-6
2010-12-26	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1485.16	1390.26	68.36%	31.40%	-16.46	8-7
2011-01-02	@ Houston Texans	L 17-34	1468.70	1431.01	49.55%	50.21%	-28.43	8-8
2010-09-13	San Diego Chargers	W 21-14	1431.15	1566.99	36.44%	63.32%	+23.30	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Cleveland Browns	W 16-14	1454.45	1434.05	47.06%	52.70%	+10.37	2-0
2010-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-10	1464.82	1452.86	57.30%	42.46%	+27.08	3-0
2010-10-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 9-19	1491.90	1575.56	32.81%	66.95%	-14.45	3-1
2010-10-17	@ Houston Texans	L 31-35	1477.45	1498.98	41.12%	58.64%	-11.44	3-2
2010-10-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 42-20	1466.01	1418.78	62.17%	37.59%	+24.54	4-2
2010-10-31	Buffalo Bills	W 13-10	1490.55	1365.58	71.96%	27.80%	+6.71	5-2
2010-11-07	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-23	1497.26	1479.62	46.67%	53.09%	-11.25	5-3
2010-11-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 29-49	1486.01	1378.47	59.48%	40.29%	-36.99	5-4
2010-11-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-13	1449.02	1410.67	60.96%	38.80%	+22.91	6-4
2010-11-28	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 42-24	1471.93	1429.11	50.29%	49.47%	+29.21	7-4
2010-12-05	Denver Broncos	W 10-6	1501.14	1384.87	70.94%	28.82%	+8.02	8-4
2010-12-12	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-31	1509.16	1570.09	35.76%	64.00%	-27.72	8-5
2010-12-19	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-13	1481.44	1409.52	54.46%	45.30%	+23.59	9-5
2010-12-26	Tennessee Titans	W 34-14	1505.03	1485.24	58.40%	41.36%	+25.75	10-5
2011-01-02	Oakland Raiders	L 10-31	1530.78	1463.81	64.79%	34.97%	-41.30	10-6
2010-09-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 15-10	1486.85	1459.56	48.05%	51.71%	+16.09	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 14-10	1502.94	1550.15	37.59%	62.17%	+17.29	2-0
2010-09-26	New York Jets	L 23-31	1520.23	1582.99	46.61%	53.15%	-18.35	2-1
2010-10-04	New England Patriots	L 14-41	1501.88	1556.10	47.84%	51.93%	-34.58	2-2
2010-10-17	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1467.30	1568.20	30.66%	69.10%	+16.64	3-2
2010-10-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 22-23	1483.94	1608.95	37.89%	61.87%	-5.27	3-3
2010-10-31	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 22-14	1478.67	1476.12	44.51%	55.25%	+21.73	4-3
2010-11-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-26	1500.40	1589.75	32.10%	67.66%	-17.87	4-4
2010-11-14	Tennessee Titans	W 29-17	1482.53	1579.48	41.76%	58.00%	+27.94	5-4
2010-11-18	Chicago Bears	L 0-16	1510.47	1525.76	53.43%	46.33%	-29.73	5-5
2010-11-28	@ Oakland Raiders	W 33-17	1480.74	1465.05	46.39%	53.37%	+29.70	6-5
2010-12-05	Cleveland Browns	L 10-13	1510.44	1462.27	62.30%	37.46%	-15.01	6-6
2010-12-12	@ New York Jets	W 10-6	1495.43	1608.80	29.16%	70.60%	+19.64	7-6
2010-12-19	Buffalo Bills	L 14-17	1515.07	1392.38	71.70%	28.06%	-17.27	7-7
2010-12-26	Detroit Lions	L 27-34	1497.80	1393.47	69.52%	30.25%	-25.58	7-8
2011-01-02	@ New England Patriots	L 7-38	1472.22	1733.00	14.98%	84.78%	-3.87	7-9
2010-09-09	@ New Orleans Saints	L 9-14	1562.34	1597.85	39.19%	60.57%	-12.19	0-1
2010-09-19	Miami Dolphins	L 10-14	1550.15	1502.94	62.17%	37.59%	-17.30	0-2
2010-09-26	Detroit Lions	W 24-10	1532.85	1363.35	76.80%	22.96%	+11.97	1-2
2010-10-11	@ New York Jets	L 20-29	1544.82	1621.61	33.69%	66.07%	-14.07	1-3
2010-10-17	Dallas Cowboys	W 24-21	1530.75	1527.85	56.02%	43.74%	+10.54	2-3
2010-10-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-28	1541.29	1551.55	42.70%	57.06%	-11.89	2-4
2010-10-31	@ New England Patriots	L 18-28	1529.40	1612.39	32.90%	66.86%	-14.48	2-5
2010-11-07	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-24	1514.92	1455.59	63.79%	35.97%	+8.67	3-5
2010-11-14	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-27	1523.59	1501.10	47.36%	52.40%	-24.66	3-6
2010-11-21	Green Bay Packers	L 3-31	1498.93	1614.34	39.20%	60.56%	-28.87	3-7
2010-11-28	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-13	1470.06	1437.52	48.81%	50.95%	+14.17	4-7
2010-12-05	Buffalo Bills	W 38-14	1484.23	1392.20	68.00%	31.76%	+21.67	5-7
2010-12-13	@ New York Giants	L 3-21	1505.90	1563.47	41.67%	58.09%	-24.61	5-8
2010-12-20	Chicago Bears	L 14-40	1481.29	1548.28	46.00%	53.76%	-32.64	5-9
2010-12-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1448.65	1635.52	21.24%	78.52%	+34.53	6-9
2011-01-02	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-20	1483.18	1419.05	53.35%	46.41%	-19.63	6-10
2010-09-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 38-24	1549.87	1491.31	63.69%	36.07%	+18.79	1-0
2010-09-19	@ New York Jets	L 14-28	1568.66	1559.30	45.48%	54.28%	-23.68	1-1
2010-09-26	Buffalo Bills	W 38-30	1544.98	1423.77	71.52%	28.24%	+11.12	2-1
2010-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	W 41-14	1556.10	1501.88	51.93%	47.84%	+34.59	3-1
2010-10-17	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1590.69	1596.08	54.84%	44.92%	+10.83	4-1
2010-10-24	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-20	1601.52	1528.26	54.65%	45.11%	+10.87	5-1
2010-10-31	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-18	1612.39	1529.40	66.86%	32.90%	+14.49	6-1
2010-11-07	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-34	1626.88	1439.91	69.83%	29.93%	-43.44	6-2
2010-11-14	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 39-26	1583.44	1604.21	41.23%	58.53%	+29.36	7-2
2010-11-21	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-28	1612.80	1613.12	55.56%	44.20%	+10.65	8-2
2010-11-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 45-24	1623.45	1376.33	76.56%	23.20%	+14.81	9-2
2010-12-06	New York Jets	W 45-3	1638.26	1650.14	53.92%	45.84%	+41.35	10-2
2010-12-12	@ Chicago Bears	W 36-7	1679.61	1579.22	58.48%	41.28%	+30.94	11-2
2010-12-19	Green Bay Packers	W 31-27	1710.55	1621.74	67.60%	32.16%	+8.96	12-2
2010-12-26	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-3	1719.51	1409.65	82.37%	17.39%	+13.49	13-2
2011-01-02	Miami Dolphins	W 38-7	1733.00	1472.22	84.78%	14.98%	+3.87	14-2
2010-09-09	Minnesota Vikings	W 14-9	1597.85	1562.34	60.57%	39.19%	+12.20	1-0
2010-09-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 25-22	1610.05	1461.24	65.04%	34.72%	+8.37	2-0
2010-09-26	Atlanta Falcons	L 24-27	1618.42	1549.43	65.06%	34.70%	-15.67	2-1
2010-10-03	Carolina Panthers	W 16-14	1602.75	1452.37	74.80%	24.96%	+4.92	3-1
2010-10-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-30	1607.67	1465.75	64.13%	35.63%	-28.21	3-2
2010-10-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-6	1579.46	1476.31	58.87%	40.90%	+28.46	4-2
2010-10-24	Cleveland Browns	L 17-30	1607.92	1399.53	80.52%	19.24%	-40.38	4-3
2010-10-31	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-10	1567.54	1614.22	48.92%	50.84%	+22.37	5-3
2010-11-07	@ Carolina Panthers	W 34-3	1589.91	1408.14	69.20%	30.56%	+23.69	6-3
2010-11-21	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-19	1613.60	1441.35	77.08%	22.68%	+12.24	7-3
2010-11-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-27	1625.84	1491.66	63.10%	36.66%	+8.84	8-3
2010-12-05	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-30	1634.68	1386.25	76.70%	23.07%	+6.43	9-3
2010-12-12	St. Louis Rams	W 31-13	1641.11	1420.25	81.61%	18.15%	+10.72	10-3
2010-12-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 24-30	1651.83	1620.05	48.70%	51.06%	-16.59	10-4
2010-12-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-14	1635.24	1660.00	40.67%	59.09%	+14.23	11-4
2011-01-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-23	1649.47	1496.39	75.09%	24.67%	-33.02	11-5
2010-09-12	Carolina Panthers	W 31-18	1492.83	1536.16	49.40%	50.36%	+25.26	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-38	1518.09	1541.86	40.81%	58.95%	-27.83	1-1
2010-09-26	Tennessee Titans	L 10-29	1490.26	1514.41	52.16%	47.60%	-31.63	1-2
2010-10-03	Chicago Bears	W 17-3	1458.63	1523.28	46.34%	53.42%	+27.81	2-2
2010-10-10	@ Houston Texans	W 34-10	1486.44	1542.11	36.46%	63.30%	+43.13	3-2
2010-10-17	Detroit Lions	W 28-20	1529.57	1394.70	73.09%	26.67%	+10.51	4-2
2010-10-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 41-35	1540.08	1517.30	47.40%	52.36%	+17.84	5-2
2010-11-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 41-7	1557.92	1436.21	61.42%	38.34%	+31.12	6-2
2010-11-14	Dallas Cowboys	L 20-33	1589.04	1435.29	75.16%	24.60%	-37.69	6-3
2010-11-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-27	1551.35	1592.84	38.37%	61.39%	-16.89	6-4
2010-11-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-20	1534.46	1466.77	64.89%	34.87%	+9.71	7-4
2010-12-05	Washington Redskins	W 31-7	1544.17	1423.34	71.48%	28.28%	+19.30	8-4
2010-12-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-3	1563.47	1505.90	58.09%	41.67%	+24.61	9-4
2010-12-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 31-38	1588.08	1616.55	51.54%	48.22%	-18.98	9-5
2010-12-26	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-45	1569.10	1612.79	38.07%	61.69%	-28.04	9-6
2011-01-02	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-14	1541.06	1406.72	63.12%	36.64%	+8.83	10-6
2010-09-13	Baltimore Ravens	L 9-10	1567.08	1565.26	55.87%	43.89%	-7.78	0-1
2010-09-19	New England Patriots	W 28-14	1559.30	1568.66	54.28%	45.48%	+23.69	1-1
2010-09-26	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-23	1582.99	1520.23	53.15%	46.61%	+18.34	2-1
2010-10-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 38-14	1601.33	1412.65	70.04%	29.72%	+20.28	3-1
2010-10-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 29-20	1621.61	1544.82	66.07%	33.69%	+14.07	4-1
2010-10-17	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-20	1635.68	1467.72	67.49%	32.27%	+8.99	5-1
2010-10-31	Green Bay Packers	L 0-9	1644.67	1563.44	66.64%	33.12%	-27.80	5-2
2010-11-07	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1616.87	1411.97	71.95%	27.81%	+6.70	6-2
2010-11-14	@ Cleveland Browns	W 26-20	1623.57	1483.35	63.91%	35.85%	+12.23	7-2
2010-11-21	Houston Texans	W 30-27	1635.80	1459.07	77.53%	22.23%	+5.37	8-2
2010-11-25	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-10	1641.17	1395.22	83.66%	16.10%	+8.97	9-2
2010-12-06	@ New England Patriots	L 3-45	1650.14	1638.26	45.84%	53.92%	-41.34	9-3
2010-12-12	Miami Dolphins	L 6-10	1608.80	1495.43	70.60%	29.16%	-19.64	9-4
2010-12-19	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 22-17	1589.16	1630.50	38.39%	61.37%	+19.09	10-4
2010-12-26	@ Chicago Bears	L 34-38	1608.25	1580.92	48.06%	51.70%	-13.38	10-5
2011-01-02	Buffalo Bills	W 38-7	1594.87	1396.16	79.64%	20.12%	+15.61	11-5
2010-09-12	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-38	1397.98	1514.80	28.75%	71.01%	-20.03	0-1
2010-09-19	St. Louis Rams	W 16-14	1377.95	1366.21	57.27%	42.49%	+8.37	1-1
2010-09-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 23-24	1386.32	1490.46	30.27%	69.49%	-4.22	1-2
2010-10-03	Houston Texans	L 24-31	1382.10	1529.24	34.94%	64.82%	-12.87	1-3
2010-10-10	San Diego Chargers	W 35-27	1369.23	1572.86	27.95%	71.81%	+28.25	2-3
2010-10-17	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 9-17	1397.48	1411.40	42.18%	57.58%	-16.61	2-4
2010-10-24	@ Denver Broncos	W 59-14	1380.87	1458.73	33.55%	66.21%	+61.77	3-4
2010-10-31	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-3	1442.64	1473.19	51.24%	48.52%	+36.98	4-4
2010-11-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-20	1479.62	1497.26	53.09%	46.67%	+11.24	5-4
2010-11-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-35	1490.86	1574.85	32.77%	66.99%	-25.81	5-5
2010-11-28	Miami Dolphins	L 17-33	1465.05	1480.74	53.37%	46.39%	-29.70	5-6
2010-12-05	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-13	1435.35	1611.84	22.25%	77.51%	+41.75	6-6
2010-12-12	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 31-38	1477.10	1485.43	42.97%	56.79%	-15.82	6-7
2010-12-19	Denver Broncos	W 39-23	1461.28	1338.03	71.76%	28.00%	+15.60	7-7
2010-12-26	Indianapolis Colts	L 26-31	1476.88	1572.32	41.97%	57.79%	-13.07	7-8
2011-01-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-10	1463.81	1530.78	34.97%	64.79%	+41.30	8-8
2010-09-12	Green Bay Packers	L 20-27	1548.74	1553.22	54.97%	44.79%	-20.23	0-1
2010-09-19	@ Detroit Lions	W 35-32	1528.51	1371.47	66.10%	33.66%	+8.12	1-1
2010-09-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-3	1536.63	1439.11	58.08%	41.68%	+29.01	2-1
2010-10-03	Washington Redskins	L 12-17	1565.64	1435.72	72.53%	27.23%	-22.56	2-2
2010-10-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1543.08	1420.62	61.52%	38.24%	+9.22	3-2
2010-10-17	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-17	1552.30	1585.92	50.80%	48.96%	+25.49	4-2
2010-10-24	@ Tennessee Titans	L 19-37	1577.79	1575.32	44.50%	55.26%	-26.27	4-3
2010-11-07	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-24	1551.52	1615.55	46.43%	53.33%	+10.49	5-3
2010-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	W 59-28	1562.01	1450.84	59.98%	39.78%	+30.83	6-3
2010-11-21	New York Giants	W 27-17	1592.84	1551.35	61.39%	38.37%	+16.89	7-3
2010-11-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 26-31	1609.73	1555.49	51.93%	47.83%	-16.15	7-4
2010-12-02	Houston Texans	W 34-24	1593.58	1488.32	69.63%	30.13%	+13.27	8-4
2010-12-12	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-27	1606.85	1498.85	59.54%	40.22%	+9.70	9-4
2010-12-19	@ New York Giants	W 38-31	1616.55	1588.08	48.22%	51.54%	+18.97	10-4
2010-12-28	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-24	1635.52	1448.65	78.52%	21.24%	-34.54	10-5
2011-01-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 13-14	1600.98	1487.82	70.58%	29.18%	-9.81	10-6
2010-09-12	Atlanta Falcons	W 15-9	1547.02	1525.73	58.61%	41.15%	+14.03	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-11	1561.05	1534.82	47.90%	51.86%	+20.41	2-0
2010-09-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-13	1581.46	1491.22	57.06%	42.70%	+29.72	3-0
2010-10-03	Baltimore Ravens	L 14-17	1611.18	1564.82	62.05%	37.71%	-14.95	3-1
2010-10-17	Cleveland Browns	W 28-10	1596.23	1412.25	78.24%	21.52%	+12.72	4-1
2010-10-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-22	1608.95	1483.94	61.87%	37.89%	+5.27	5-1
2010-10-31	@ New Orleans Saints	L 10-20	1614.22	1567.54	50.84%	48.92%	-22.37	5-2
2010-11-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-21	1591.85	1454.38	63.54%	36.22%	+12.36	6-2
2010-11-14	New England Patriots	L 26-39	1604.21	1583.44	58.53%	41.23%	-29.36	6-3
2010-11-21	Oakland Raiders	W 35-3	1574.85	1490.86	66.99%	32.77%	+25.82	7-3
2010-11-28	@ Buffalo Bills	W 19-16	1600.67	1399.00	71.58%	28.18%	+6.79	8-3
2010-12-05	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 13-10	1607.46	1621.34	42.19%	57.57%	+13.87	9-3
2010-12-12	Cincinnati Bengals	W 23-7	1621.33	1379.82	83.31%	16.45%	+9.17	10-3
2010-12-19	New York Jets	L 17-22	1630.50	1589.16	61.37%	38.39%	-19.08	10-4
2010-12-23	Carolina Panthers	W 27-3	1611.42	1331.83	86.11%	13.65%	+9.32	11-4
2011-01-02	@ Cleveland Browns	W 41-9	1620.74	1431.46	70.11%	29.65%	+23.35	12-4
2010-09-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-21	1566.99	1431.15	63.32%	36.44%	-23.30	0-1
2010-09-19	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 38-13	1543.69	1462.15	66.68%	33.08%	+23.04	1-1
2010-09-26	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-27	1566.73	1441.14	61.95%	37.81%	-22.80	1-2
2010-10-03	Arizona Cardinals	W 41-10	1543.93	1494.68	62.44%	37.32%	+28.93	2-2
2010-10-10	@ Oakland Raiders	L 27-35	1572.86	1369.23	71.81%	27.95%	-28.25	2-3
2010-10-17	@ St. Louis Rams	L 17-20	1544.61	1373.62	67.87%	31.89%	-16.35	2-4
2010-10-24	New England Patriots	L 20-23	1528.26	1601.52	45.11%	54.65%	-10.87	2-5
2010-10-31	Tennessee Titans	W 33-25	1517.39	1601.60	43.55%	56.21%	+22.11	3-5
2010-11-07	@ Houston Texans	W 29-23	1539.50	1494.29	50.63%	49.13%	+16.75	4-5
2010-11-22	Denver Broncos	W 35-14	1556.25	1415.46	73.75%	26.01%	+16.60	5-5
2010-11-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 36-14	1572.85	1602.46	40.00%	59.76%	+38.99	6-5
2010-12-05	Oakland Raiders	L 13-28	1611.84	1435.35	77.51%	22.25%	-41.75	6-6
2010-12-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-0	1570.09	1509.16	64.00%	35.76%	+27.72	7-6
2010-12-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-7	1597.81	1458.85	73.55%	26.21%	+18.97	8-6
2010-12-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-34	1616.78	1381.72	75.30%	24.46%	-39.19	8-7
2011-01-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 33-28	1577.59	1330.89	76.52%	23.24%	+7.24	9-7
2010-09-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-31	1498.84	1429.66	54.07%	45.69%	-37.60	0-1
2010-09-20	New Orleans Saints	L 22-25	1461.24	1610.05	34.72%	65.04%	-8.38	0-2
2010-09-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-31	1452.86	1464.82	42.46%	57.30%	-27.08	0-3
2010-10-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-16	1425.78	1565.10	26.17%	73.59%	-5.16	0-4
2010-10-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-27	1420.62	1543.08	38.24%	61.52%	-9.22	0-5
2010-10-17	Oakland Raiders	W 17-9	1411.40	1397.48	57.58%	42.18%	+16.61	1-5
2010-10-24	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-23	1428.01	1419.50	45.36%	54.40%	-10.93	1-6
2010-10-31	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-16	1417.08	1396.96	52.77%	46.99%	+18.49	2-6
2010-11-14	St. Louis Rams	W 23-20	1435.57	1407.23	59.59%	40.17%	+9.69	3-6
2010-11-21	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 0-21	1445.26	1475.10	51.34%	48.42%	-32.74	3-7
2010-11-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 27-6	1412.52	1387.75	47.69%	52.07%	+33.20	4-7
2010-12-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-34	1445.72	1631.58	21.33%	78.43%	-12.61	4-8
2010-12-12	Seattle Seahawks	W 40-21	1433.11	1420.86	57.34%	42.42%	+25.74	5-8
2010-12-16	@ San Diego Chargers	L 7-34	1458.85	1597.81	26.21%	73.55%	-18.98	5-9
2010-12-26	@ St. Louis Rams	L 17-25	1439.87	1385.93	51.89%	47.88%	-20.41	5-10
2011-01-02	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-7	1419.46	1358.22	64.04%	35.72%	+27.69	6-10
2010-09-12	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-6	1429.66	1498.84	45.69%	54.07%	+37.60	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-31	1467.26	1457.60	45.53%	54.23%	-26.12	1-1
2010-09-26	San Diego Chargers	W 27-20	1441.14	1566.73	37.81%	61.95%	+22.80	2-1
2010-10-03	@ St. Louis Rams	L 3-20	1463.94	1388.89	54.91%	44.86%	-31.49	2-2
2010-10-17	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-20	1432.45	1523.43	31.89%	67.87%	+16.35	3-2
2010-10-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 22-10	1448.80	1493.96	49.14%	50.62%	+24.39	4-2
2010-10-31	@ Oakland Raiders	L 3-33	1473.19	1442.64	48.52%	51.24%	-36.98	4-3
2010-11-07	New York Giants	L 7-41	1436.21	1557.92	38.34%	61.42%	-31.12	4-4
2010-11-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 36-18	1405.09	1446.92	38.32%	61.44%	+36.26	5-4
2010-11-21	@ New Orleans Saints	L 19-34	1441.35	1613.60	22.68%	77.08%	-12.24	5-5
2010-11-28	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-42	1429.11	1471.93	49.47%	50.29%	-29.21	5-6
2010-12-05	Carolina Panthers	W 31-14	1399.90	1344.54	63.26%	36.50%	+20.96	6-6
2010-12-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-40	1420.86	1433.11	42.42%	57.34%	-25.74	6-7
2010-12-19	Atlanta Falcons	L 18-34	1395.12	1647.36	22.68%	77.08%	-12.64	6-8
2010-12-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 15-38	1382.48	1475.24	31.67%	68.09%	-21.15	6-9
2011-01-02	St. Louis Rams	W 16-6	1361.33	1406.35	49.16%	50.60%	+22.27	7-9
2010-09-12	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-17	1376.12	1518.28	35.60%	64.16%	-9.91	0-1
2010-09-19	@ Oakland Raiders	L 14-16	1366.21	1377.95	42.49%	57.27%	-8.37	0-2
2010-09-26	Washington Redskins	W 30-16	1357.84	1466.77	40.09%	59.67%	+31.05	1-2
2010-10-03	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-3	1388.89	1463.94	44.86%	54.91%	+31.49	2-2
2010-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 6-44	1420.38	1347.93	54.54%	45.22%	-46.76	2-3
2010-10-17	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1373.62	1544.61	31.89%	67.87%	+16.35	3-3
2010-10-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-18	1389.97	1447.85	36.16%	63.60%	-5.04	3-4
2010-10-31	Carolina Panthers	W 20-10	1384.93	1430.44	49.09%	50.67%	+22.30	4-4
2010-11-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-23	1407.23	1435.57	40.17%	59.59%	-9.69	4-5
2010-11-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-34	1397.54	1598.14	28.31%	71.45%	-16.25	4-6
2010-11-28	@ Denver Broncos	W 36-33	1381.29	1398.86	41.67%	58.09%	+13.99	5-6
2010-12-05	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 19-6	1395.28	1354.56	49.98%	49.78%	+24.97	6-6
2010-12-12	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-31	1420.25	1641.11	18.15%	81.61%	-10.73	6-7
2010-12-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-27	1409.52	1481.44	45.30%	54.46%	-23.59	6-8
2010-12-26	San Francisco 49ers	W 25-17	1385.93	1439.87	47.88%	51.89%	+20.42	7-8
2011-01-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-16	1406.35	1361.33	50.60%	49.16%	-22.26	7-9
2010-09-12	Cleveland Browns	W 17-14	1449.30	1444.53	56.29%	43.47%	+10.48	1-0
2010-09-19	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-7	1459.78	1510.90	37.07%	62.69%	+31.44	2-0
2010-09-26	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-38	1491.22	1581.46	42.70%	57.06%	-29.72	2-1
2010-10-10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-21	1461.50	1503.59	38.29%	61.47%	+14.81	3-1
2010-10-17	New Orleans Saints	L 6-31	1476.31	1579.46	40.90%	58.87%	-28.46	3-2
2010-10-24	St. Louis Rams	W 18-17	1447.85	1389.97	63.60%	36.16%	+5.04	4-2
2010-10-31	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 38-35	1452.89	1469.56	41.80%	57.96%	+13.96	5-2
2010-11-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-27	1466.85	1573.09	30.01%	69.75%	-10.24	5-3
2010-11-14	Carolina Panthers	W 31-16	1456.61	1384.45	65.47%	34.29%	+18.49	6-3
2010-11-21	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 21-0	1475.10	1445.26	48.42%	51.34%	+32.73	7-3
2010-11-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-17	1507.83	1610.10	30.50%	69.26%	-11.23	7-4
2010-12-05	Atlanta Falcons	L 24-28	1496.60	1626.03	37.29%	62.47%	-10.39	7-5
2010-12-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-16	1486.21	1404.05	55.92%	43.84%	+6.11	8-5
2010-12-19	Detroit Lions	L 20-23	1492.32	1376.39	70.90%	28.86%	-17.08	8-6
2010-12-26	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-15	1475.24	1382.48	68.09%	31.67%	+21.15	9-6
2011-01-02	@ New Orleans Saints	W 23-13	1496.39	1649.47	24.67%	75.09%	+33.02	10-6
2010-09-12	Oakland Raiders	W 38-13	1514.80	1397.98	71.01%	28.75%	+20.02	1-0
2010-09-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 11-19	1534.82	1561.05	51.86%	47.90%	-20.41	1-1
2010-09-26	@ New York Giants	W 29-10	1514.41	1490.26	47.60%	52.16%	+31.63	2-1
2010-10-03	Denver Broncos	L 20-26	1546.04	1461.17	67.10%	32.66%	-22.86	2-2
2010-10-10	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-27	1523.18	1549.68	40.43%	59.33%	+21.84	3-2
2010-10-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-3	1545.02	1449.09	57.86%	41.90%	+30.30	4-2
2010-10-24	Philadelphia Eagles	W 37-19	1575.32	1577.79	55.26%	44.50%	+26.28	5-2
2010-10-31	@ San Diego Chargers	L 25-33	1601.60	1517.39	56.21%	43.55%	-22.12	5-3
2010-11-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-29	1579.48	1482.53	58.00%	41.76%	-27.94	5-4
2010-11-21	Washington Redskins	L 16-19	1551.54	1420.00	72.71%	27.05%	-17.52	5-5
2010-11-28	@ Houston Texans	L 0-20	1534.02	1453.70	55.66%	44.11%	-34.62	5-6
2010-12-05	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-17	1499.40	1457.06	61.51%	38.25%	-28.37	5-7
2010-12-09	Indianapolis Colts	L 28-30	1471.03	1547.44	44.66%	55.10%	-8.79	5-8
2010-12-19	Houston Texans	W 31-17	1462.24	1462.47	55.58%	44.18%	+23.00	6-8
2010-12-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-34	1485.24	1505.03	41.36%	58.40%	-25.74	6-9
2011-01-02	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-23	1459.50	1585.39	27.69%	72.07%	-6.68	6-10
2010-09-12	Dallas Cowboys	W 13-7	1457.60	1560.86	40.88%	58.88%	+20.06	1-0
2010-09-19	Houston Texans	L 27-30	1477.66	1550.46	45.17%	54.59%	-10.89	1-1
2010-09-26	@ St. Louis Rams	L 16-30	1466.77	1357.84	59.67%	40.09%	-31.05	1-2
2010-10-03	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-12	1435.72	1565.64	27.23%	72.53%	+22.55	2-2
2010-10-10	Green Bay Packers	W 16-13	1458.27	1583.09	37.92%	61.84%	+14.90	3-2
2010-10-17	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-27	1473.17	1590.01	39.01%	60.76%	-9.41	3-3
2010-10-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-14	1463.76	1507.08	38.12%	61.64%	+14.85	4-3
2010-10-31	@ Detroit Lions	L 25-37	1478.61	1384.19	57.65%	42.11%	-27.77	4-4
2010-11-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 28-59	1450.84	1562.01	39.78%	59.98%	-30.84	4-5
2010-11-21	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-16	1420.00	1551.54	27.05%	72.71%	+17.52	5-5
2010-11-28	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-17	1437.52	1470.06	50.95%	48.81%	-14.18	5-6
2010-12-05	@ New York Giants	L 7-31	1423.34	1544.17	28.28%	71.48%	-19.29	5-7
2010-12-12	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-17	1404.05	1486.21	43.84%	55.92%	-6.11	5-8
2010-12-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 30-33	1397.94	1489.15	31.86%	67.90%	-7.68	5-9
2010-12-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-17	1390.26	1485.16	31.40%	68.36%	+16.46	6-9
2011-01-02	New York Giants	L 14-17	1406.72	1541.06	36.64%	63.12%	-8.83	6-10

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2011-01-15	Green Bay Packers	L 21-48	1652.76	1669.18	53.39%	46.61%	-38.50	0-1
2011-01-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-7	1655.52	1489.48	67.38%	32.62%	+21.71	1-0
2011-01-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-31	1677.23	1644.09	49.01%	50.99%	-18.00	1-1
2011-01-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 35-24	1580.42	1406.94	77.36%	22.64%	+10.42	1-0
2011-01-23	Green Bay Packers	L 14-21	1590.84	1707.68	39.12%	60.88%	-14.37	1-1
2011-01-09	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-16	1654.71	1591.17	53.38%	46.62%	+14.47	1-0
2011-01-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 48-21	1669.18	1652.76	46.61%	53.39%	+38.50	2-0
2011-01-23	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1707.68	1590.84	60.88%	39.12%	+14.37	3-0
2011-02-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-25	1722.05	1675.04	56.72%	43.28%	+14.71	4-0
2011-01-08	New York Jets	L 16-17	1592.07	1610.48	53.10%	46.90%	-7.37	0-1
2011-01-09	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-30	1489.48	1655.52	32.62%	67.38%	-21.71	0-1
2011-01-16	New York Jets	L 21-28	1736.87	1617.85	71.41%	28.59%	-26.22	0-1
2011-01-08	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 36-41	1616.45	1383.60	75.22%	24.78%	-23.35	0-1
2011-01-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-16	1610.48	1592.07	46.90%	53.10%	+7.37	1-0
2011-01-16	@ New England Patriots	W 28-21	1617.85	1736.87	28.59%	71.41%	+26.22	2-0
2011-01-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-24	1644.07	1662.09	41.73%	58.27%	-12.95	2-1
2011-01-09	Green Bay Packers	L 16-21	1591.17	1654.71	46.62%	53.38%	-14.47	0-1
2011-01-15	Baltimore Ravens	W 31-24	1644.09	1677.23	50.99%	49.01%	+18.00	1-0
2011-01-23	New York Jets	W 24-19	1662.09	1644.07	58.27%	41.73%	+12.95	2-0
2011-02-06	Green Bay Packers	L 25-31	1675.04	1722.05	43.28%	56.72%	-14.71	2-1
2011-01-08	New Orleans Saints	W 41-36	1383.60	1616.45	24.78%	75.22%	+23.34	1-0
2011-01-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 24-35	1406.94	1580.42	22.64%	77.36%	-10.42	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2010-12-12	19.07%	@ Detroit Lions	1353.94	7	Green Bay Packers	1644.19	3
2	2010-10-24	19.24%	Cleveland Browns	1399.53	30	@ New Orleans Saints	1607.92	17
3	2010-12-28	21.24%	Minnesota Vikings	1448.65	24	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1635.52	14
4	2010-12-05	22.25%	Oakland Raiders	1435.35	28	@ San Diego Chargers	1611.84	13
5	2010-12-26	24.46%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1381.72	34	San Diego Chargers	1616.78	20
6	2010-11-14	24.60%	Dallas Cowboys	1435.29	33	@ New York Giants	1589.04	20
7	2011-01-02	24.67%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1496.39	23	@ New Orleans Saints	1649.47	13
8	2011-01-08 *	24.78%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1383.60	41	New Orleans Saints	1616.45	36
9	2010-11-21	27.05%	Washington Redskins	1420.00	19	@ Tennessee Titans	1551.54	16
10	2010-10-03	27.23%	Washington Redskins	1435.72	17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1565.64	12
11	2010-10-10	27.95%	@ Oakland Raiders	1369.23	35	San Diego Chargers	1572.86	27
12	2010-12-19	28.06%	Buffalo Bills	1392.38	17	@ Miami Dolphins	1515.07	14
13	2011-01-16 *	28.59%	New York Jets	1617.85	28	@ New England Patriots	1736.87	21
14	2010-12-19	28.86%	Detroit Lions	1376.39	23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1492.32	20
15	2010-12-12	29.16%	Miami Dolphins	1495.43	10	@ New York Jets	1608.80	6
16	2011-01-02	29.18%	Dallas Cowboys	1487.82	14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1600.98	13
17	2010-11-07	29.93%	@ Cleveland Browns	1439.91	34	New England Patriots	1626.88	14
18	2010-10-31	30.14%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1394.23	35	@ Dallas Cowboys	1499.46	17
19	2010-12-26	30.25%	Detroit Lions	1393.47	34	@ Miami Dolphins	1497.80	27
20	2010-10-03	30.51%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1410.11	31	Indianapolis Colts	1592.24	28
21	2010-10-17	30.66%	Miami Dolphins	1467.30	23	@ Green Bay Packers	1568.20	20
22	2010-12-26	31.40%	Washington Redskins	1390.26	20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1485.16	17
23	2010-10-17	31.89%	@ St. Louis Rams	1373.62	20	San Diego Chargers	1544.61	17
24	2010-10-17	31.89%	Seattle Seahawks	1432.45	23	@ Chicago Bears	1523.43	20
25	2010-10-03	32.66%	Denver Broncos	1461.17	26	@ Tennessee Titans	1546.04	20

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2010-10-24	61.77	Oakland Raiders	59	1380.87	33.55%	@ Denver Broncos	14	1458.73	66.21%
2	2010-10-10	46.77	@ Detroit Lions	44	1347.93	45.22%	St. Louis Rams	6	1420.38	54.54%
3	2010-11-07	43.44	@ Cleveland Browns	34	1439.91	29.93%	New England Patriots	14	1626.88	69.83%
4	2010-10-10	43.13	New York Giants	34	1486.44	36.46%	@ Houston Texans	10	1542.11	63.30%
5	2010-12-05	41.75	Oakland Raiders	28	1435.35	22.25%	@ San Diego Chargers	13	1611.84	77.51%
6	2010-12-06	41.35	@ New England Patriots	45	1638.26	53.92%	New York Jets	3	1650.14	45.84%
7	2011-01-02	41.30	Oakland Raiders	31	1463.81	34.97%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	10	1530.78	64.79%
8	2010-10-31	41.08	Jacksonville Jaguars	35	1394.23	30.14%	@ Dallas Cowboys	17	1499.46	69.62%
9	2010-10-24	40.38	Cleveland Browns	30	1399.53	19.24%	@ New Orleans Saints	17	1607.92	80.52%
10	2010-12-26	39.19	@ Cincinnati Bengals	34	1381.72	24.46%	San Diego Chargers	20	1616.78	75.30%
11	2010-11-28	38.99	San Diego Chargers	36	1572.85	40.00%	@ Indianapolis Colts	14	1602.46	59.76%
12	2010-12-12	38.81	@ Arizona Cardinals	43	1329.59	48.84%	Denver Broncos	13	1376.84	50.92%
13	2010-11-21	38.75	Buffalo Bills	49	1360.25	34.09%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	31	1433.97	65.67%
14	2011-01-15 *	38.50	Green Bay Packers	48	1669.18	46.61%	@ Atlanta Falcons	21	1652.76	53.39%
15	2010-09-19	37.74	@ Atlanta Falcons	41	1511.70	53.26%	Arizona Cardinals	7	1528.20	46.50%
16	2010-11-14	37.69	Dallas Cowboys	33	1435.29	24.60%	@ New York Giants	20	1589.04	75.16%
17	2010-09-12	37.60	@ Seattle Seahawks	31	1429.66	45.69%	San Francisco 49ers	6	1498.84	54.07%
18	2010-11-14	36.99	@ Denver Broncos	49	1378.47	40.29%	Kansas City Chiefs	29	1486.01	59.48%
19	2010-10-31	36.98	@ Oakland Raiders	33	1442.64	51.24%	Seattle Seahawks	3	1473.19	48.52%
20	2010-11-14	36.26	Seattle Seahawks	36	1405.09	38.32%	@ Arizona Cardinals	18	1446.92	61.44%
21	2010-11-28	34.62	@ Houston Texans	20	1453.70	44.11%	Tennessee Titans	0	1534.02	55.66%
22	2010-10-04	34.59	New England Patriots	41	1556.10	51.93%	@ Miami Dolphins	14	1501.88	47.84%
23	2010-12-28	34.54	Minnesota Vikings	24	1448.65	21.24%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	14	1635.52	78.52%
24	2010-11-29	33.20	San Francisco 49ers	27	1412.52	47.69%	@ Arizona Cardinals	6	1387.75	52.07%
25	2011-01-02	33.02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	23	1496.39	24.67%	@ New Orleans Saints	13	1649.47	75.09%