2011 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New York Giants

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 2007

Runner-Up

New England Patriots

7th SB App.

Last Appearance: 2007

Biggest Overachiever

San Francisco 49ers

3.10 wins above expected

13 wins · 9.90 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Indianapolis Colts

3.75 wins below expected

2 wins · 5.75 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	13	3	.812	—	513	342	+171	11.24	+1.76
2	New York Jets	8	8	.500	5	377	363	+14	9.20	-1.20
3	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	7	372	434	-62	6.98	-0.98
4	Miami Dolphins	6	10	.375	7	329	313	+16	6.97	-0.97

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	12	4	.750	—	378	266	+112	10.87	+1.13
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	12	4	.750	—	325	227	+98	10.43	+1.57
3	Cincinnati Bengals Playoffs	9	7	.562	3	344	323	+21	8.37	+0.63
4	Cleveland Browns	4	12	.250	8	218	307	-89	5.89	-1.89

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	10	6	.625	—	381	278	+103	9.76	+0.24
2	Tennessee Titans	9	7	.562	1	325	317	+8	8.34	+0.66
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	11	.312	5	243	329	-86	6.30	-1.30
4	Indianapolis Colts	2	14	.125	8	243	430	-187	5.75	-3.75

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	8	8	.500	—	309	390	-81	6.46	+1.54
2	San Diego Chargers	8	8	.500	—	406	377	+29	8.66	-0.66
3	Oakland Raiders	8	8	.500	—	359	433	-74	7.59	+0.41
4	Kansas City Chiefs	7	9	.438	1	212	338	-126	6.09	+0.91

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New York Giants Division	9	7	.562	—	394	400	-6	8.06	+0.94
2	Dallas Cowboys	8	8	.500	1	369	347	+22	8.68	-0.68
3	Philadelphia Eagles	8	8	.500	1	396	328	+68	8.38	-0.38
4	Washington Redskins	5	11	.312	4	288	367	-79	6.62	-1.62

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	15	1	.938	—	560	359	+201	12.57	+2.43
2	Detroit Lions Playoffs	10	6	.625	5	474	387	+87	8.38	+1.62
3	Chicago Bears	8	8	.500	7	353	341	+12	8.79	-0.79
4	Minnesota Vikings	3	13	.188	12	340	449	-109	5.92	-2.92

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New Orleans Saints Division	13	3	.812	—	547	339	+208	10.31	+2.69
2	Atlanta Falcons Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	402	350	+52	9.19	+0.81
3	Carolina Panthers	6	10	.375	7	406	429	-23	5.84	+0.16
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	12	.250	9	287	494	-207	6.61	-2.61

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	13	3	.812	—	380	229	+151	9.90	+3.10
2	Arizona Cardinals	8	8	.500	5	312	348	-36	6.17	+1.83
3	Seattle Seahawks	7	9	.438	6	321	315	+6	6.93	+0.07
4	St. Louis Rams	2	14	.125	11	193	407	-214	4.73	-2.73

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Texans 31

Cincinnati Bengals 10

Jan 7

Denver Broncos 29

Pittsburgh Steelers 23

Jan 8

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 45

Denver Broncos 10

Jan 14

Baltimore Ravens 20

Houston Texans 13

Jan 15

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 23

Baltimore Ravens 20

Jan 22

NFC

Wild Card Round

New Orleans Saints 45

Detroit Lions 28

Jan 7

New York Giants 24

Atlanta Falcons 2

Jan 8

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 36

New Orleans Saints 32

Jan 14

New York Giants 37

Green Bay Packers 20

Jan 15

Conference Championship

New York Giants 20

San Francisco 49ers 17

Jan 22

Super Bowl

New York Giants 21

New England Patriots 17

Feb 5

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1761	15	12.57	+2.43	98.01%	5	10	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1738	13	11.24	+1.76	90.72%	5	8	10	11	12	14	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1714	13	10.31	+2.69	96.67%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1656	13	9.90	+3.10	98.01%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1652	12	10.43	+1.57	87.37%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1645	12	10.87	+1.13	81.69%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1597	8	8.38	-0.38	52.90%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1583	10	9.19	+0.81	76.06%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1579	10	9.76	+0.24	65.37%	2	7	9	10	11	13	15
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1571	10	8.38	+1.62	87.16%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1557	8	8.66	-0.66	46.14%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1530	9	8.06	+0.94	78.39%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1515	9	8.37	+0.63	72.44%	2	5	7	8	10	12	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1502	8	8.79	-0.79	44.24%	2	6	7	9	10	12	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1501	6	6.97	-0.97	40.99%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1496	7	6.93	+0.07	62.42%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1495	8	9.20	-1.20	35.69%	3	6	8	9	11	12	15
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1479	9	8.34	+0.66	72.55%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1472	8	8.68	-0.68	46.19%	2	6	7	9	10	12	15
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1455	6	5.84	+0.16	65.50%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1448	8	6.17	+1.83	89.43%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1446	8	7.59	+0.41	68.89%	1	4	6	8	9	11	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1438	7	6.09	+0.91	78.82%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1414	8	6.46	+1.54	85.71%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1401	6	6.98	-0.98	40.78%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1385	5	6.30	-1.30	34.68%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1369	5	6.62	-1.62	27.65%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1365	3	5.92	-2.92	9.31%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1360	4	5.89	-1.89	22.87%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1327	2	5.75	-3.75	3.10%	0	3	4	6	7	9	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1284	4	6.61	-2.61	13.06%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1264	2	4.73	-2.73	9.75%	0	2	4	5	6	8	11

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—
New England Patriots	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	—	—	—
New York Jets	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (3.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.9 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	—
Oakland Raiders	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
New York Giants	4-0 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	—	1-3 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	—	3-1 (3.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (3.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	—	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	3-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	San Francisco 49ers	13	9.90	+3.10
2	New Orleans Saints	13	10.31	+2.69
3	Green Bay Packers	15	12.57	+2.43
4	Arizona Cardinals	8	6.17	+1.83
5	New England Patriots	13	11.24	+1.76

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Indianapolis Colts	2	5.75	-3.75
2	Minnesota Vikings	3	5.92	-2.92
3	St. Louis Rams	2	4.73	-2.73
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	6.61	-2.61
5	Cleveland Browns	4	5.89	-1.89

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Denver Broncos	6	Nov 6 – Dec 11	1 in 230
2	San Francisco 49ers	8	Sep 25 – Nov 20	1 in 92
3	Kansas City Chiefs	4	Oct 2 – Oct 31	1 in 42
4	Green Bay Packers	13	Sep 8 – Dec 11	1 in 32
5	Arizona Cardinals	4	Nov 27 – Dec 18	1 in 29

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Indianapolis Colts	13	Sep 11 – Dec 11	1 in 807
2	Houston Texans	3	Dec 18 – Jan 1	1 in 120
3	Chicago Bears	5	Nov 27 – Dec 25	1 in 117
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10	Oct 23 – Jan 1	1 in 98
5	San Diego Chargers	6	Oct 23 – Nov 27	1 in 68

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	71.77%	21.47%	5.66%	1.10%
New York Jets	21.21%	45.93%	22.68%	10.18%
Miami Dolphins	3.61%	17.23%	35.79%	43.37%
Buffalo Bills	3.41%	15.37%	35.87%	45.35%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	49.04%	34.64%	14.41%	1.91%
Pittsburgh Steelers	40.71%	38.95%	17.57%	2.77%
Cincinnati Bengals	9.74%	22.45%	49.98%	17.83%
Cleveland Browns	0.51%	3.96%	18.04%	77.49%

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Texans	62.64%	26.74%	8.37%	2.25%
Tennessee Titans	28.00%	42.36%	20.88%	8.76%
Jacksonville Jaguars	5.95%	18.10%	38.88%	37.07%
Indianapolis Colts	3.41%	12.80%	31.87%	51.92%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Diego Chargers	52.28%	27.29%	13.84%	6.59%
Oakland Raiders	27.30%	33.45%	23.70%	15.55%
Denver Broncos	11.82%	21.12%	31.47%	35.59%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.60%	18.14%	30.99%	42.27%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	36.63%	28.47%	21.87%	13.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	30.48%	28.58%	25.09%	15.85%
New York Giants	25.08%	28.45%	26.63%	19.84%
Washington Redskins	7.81%	14.50%	26.41%	51.28%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	87.40%	10.59%	1.85%	0.16%
Chicago Bears	6.96%	43.96%	36.58%	12.50%
Detroit Lions	5.15%	38.28%	40.86%	15.71%
Minnesota Vikings	0.49%	7.17%	20.71%	71.63%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	60.36%	29.70%	8.04%	1.90%
Atlanta Falcons	33.06%	45.50%	16.26%	5.18%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.40%	15.44%	43.05%	37.11%
Carolina Panthers	2.18%	9.36%	32.65%	55.81%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	79.34%	16.00%	3.95%	0.71%
Seattle Seahawks	13.30%	43.13%	29.48%	14.09%
Arizona Cardinals	6.11%	29.25%	38.92%	25.72%
St. Louis Rams	1.25%	11.62%	27.65%	59.48%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	29.44%	23.73%	14.84%	9.65%	6.84%	5.16%	3.60%	2.41%	1.72%	1.18%	0.69%	0.37%	0.24%	0.07%	0.05%	0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	24.09%	18.63%	13.46%	11.38%	9.40%	6.69%	5.31%	3.84%	2.58%	1.83%	1.40%	0.74%	0.30%	0.27%	0.06%	0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	19.15%	15.16%	13.30%	11.96%	10.22%	8.23%	6.33%	4.66%	3.84%	2.83%	1.66%	1.27%	0.55%	0.47%	0.26%	0.11%
Houston Texans	9.20%	12.82%	15.58%	13.19%	11.02%	9.05%	7.55%	5.82%	4.53%	3.53%	2.69%	2.09%	1.28%	0.83%	0.52%	0.30%
New York Jets	6.36%	7.90%	9.47%	10.01%	10.63%	11.14%	9.37%	7.70%	6.98%	5.59%	4.54%	3.43%	2.78%	2.12%	1.35%	0.63%
San Diego Chargers	3.19%	5.99%	9.09%	11.37%	10.55%	10.00%	9.28%	8.68%	7.19%	6.12%	5.26%	4.12%	3.38%	2.97%	1.65%	1.16%
Tennessee Titans	2.60%	5.08%	6.87%	7.45%	9.20%	9.46%	9.52%	9.80%	8.12%	7.15%	6.60%	5.77%	4.56%	3.02%	2.68%	2.12%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.97%	4.13%	5.22%	6.83%	7.72%	8.62%	8.91%	9.17%	10.16%	8.79%	7.72%	6.32%	4.73%	3.80%	3.00%	1.91%
Oakland Raiders	1.12%	2.41%	4.26%	5.25%	6.69%	7.60%	8.89%	9.36%	8.57%	8.78%	8.36%	7.31%	7.07%	5.52%	4.78%	4.03%
Miami Dolphins	0.49%	1.04%	1.73%	2.60%	3.96%	5.04%	5.92%	6.85%	8.15%	9.38%	9.29%	9.74%	9.99%	9.27%	9.04%	7.51%
Buffalo Bills	0.57%	1.10%	1.61%	2.89%	3.50%	5.05%	5.96%	6.74%	7.83%	9.39%	9.48%	9.39%	10.35%	9.70%	9.13%	7.31%
Denver Broncos	0.27%	0.73%	1.39%	2.56%	3.28%	4.29%	4.80%	6.23%	7.24%	7.85%	8.93%	9.07%	10.14%	10.54%	11.15%	11.53%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.29%	0.58%	1.28%	1.64%	2.59%	2.84%	4.49%	5.67%	6.56%	7.99%	8.78%	11.10%	10.45%	10.72%	11.84%	13.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.10%	0.36%	0.91%	1.64%	1.87%	3.01%	4.15%	4.98%	6.26%	7.68%	8.75%	9.74%	11.50%	11.99%	13.00%	14.06%
Indianapolis Colts	0.07%	0.14%	0.50%	0.88%	1.21%	2.05%	3.19%	4.08%	5.19%	6.07%	8.27%	10.05%	10.60%	13.86%	15.33%	18.51%
Cleveland Browns	0.09%	0.20%	0.49%	0.70%	1.32%	1.77%	2.73%	4.01%	5.08%	5.84%	7.58%	9.49%	12.08%	14.85%	16.16%	17.61%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Green Bay Packers	62.57%	19.11%	7.91%	4.59%	2.53%	1.39%	0.78%	0.45%	0.30%	0.11%	0.14%	0.06%	0.02%	0.03%	0.01%	—
New Orleans Saints	12.51%	20.88%	16.56%	12.53%	9.74%	8.01%	6.18%	4.02%	3.15%	2.20%	1.75%	1.05%	0.72%	0.40%	0.22%	0.08%
San Francisco 49ers	7.21%	17.25%	18.38%	15.48%	11.24%	8.10%	6.28%	5.09%	3.50%	2.57%	1.84%	1.22%	0.91%	0.45%	0.35%	0.13%
Atlanta Falcons	5.13%	10.69%	10.94%	10.47%	11.12%	11.07%	10.06%	7.77%	6.02%	4.79%	3.81%	3.13%	2.18%	1.42%	1.00%	0.40%
Dallas Cowboys	2.33%	7.11%	9.85%	11.10%	9.92%	9.62%	9.03%	7.46%	7.60%	6.90%	5.76%	4.51%	3.54%	2.79%	1.64%	0.84%
Chicago Bears	3.55%	5.61%	7.40%	9.49%	11.32%	9.88%	9.47%	9.65%	8.28%	6.99%	5.94%	4.38%	3.22%	2.32%	1.72%	0.78%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.08%	6.38%	8.21%	8.88%	8.79%	9.57%	8.98%	7.82%	7.96%	7.42%	6.52%	5.78%	4.61%	3.51%	2.26%	1.23%
Detroit Lions	2.31%	4.13%	6.01%	7.96%	10.11%	9.40%	9.47%	9.53%	8.97%	8.21%	7.21%	5.12%	4.42%	3.54%	2.43%	1.18%
New York Giants	1.27%	4.25%	6.51%	7.18%	8.24%	9.24%	9.43%	9.06%	8.67%	7.95%	7.23%	6.56%	5.46%	4.42%	2.95%	1.58%
Seattle Seahawks	0.35%	1.50%	2.48%	3.45%	4.52%	6.02%	7.38%	9.24%	8.79%	9.66%	9.58%	9.17%	8.51%	7.14%	6.87%	5.34%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.22%	1.12%	1.45%	2.46%	3.34%	4.26%	4.77%	6.22%	8.23%	9.09%	10.25%	10.27%	10.46%	10.06%	10.28%	7.52%
Washington Redskins	0.24%	0.84%	1.76%	2.53%	3.05%	4.37%	5.56%	6.48%	7.39%	8.46%	9.06%	9.82%	11.50%	11.58%	9.42%	7.94%
Arizona Cardinals	0.07%	0.46%	1.21%	1.57%	2.43%	3.55%	5.01%	6.16%	7.08%	8.43%	8.73%	11.35%	10.76%	10.77%	10.39%	12.03%
Carolina Panthers	0.09%	0.33%	0.68%	0.99%	1.64%	2.21%	3.13%	4.42%	5.45%	6.59%	8.76%	10.36%	11.67%	13.56%	15.72%	14.40%
Minnesota Vikings	0.07%	0.29%	0.52%	1.08%	1.56%	2.43%	3.20%	4.29%	5.67%	6.77%	7.72%	9.57%	12.64%	15.24%	15.53%	13.42%
St. Louis Rams	—	0.05%	0.13%	0.24%	0.45%	0.88%	1.27%	2.34%	2.94%	3.86%	5.70%	7.65%	9.38%	12.77%	19.21%	33.13%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Green Bay Packers	41.01%	21.11%	11.10%	8.31%	4.65%	3.52%	2.61%	2.06%	1.38%	1.03%	0.83%	0.57%	0.41%	0.37%	0.28%	0.18%	0.11%	0.09%	0.08%	0.07%	0.07%	0.05%	0.04%	0.02%	0.02%	—	0.02%	—	0.01%	—	—	—
New England Patriots	13.48%	15.82%	13.21%	11.05%	8.14%	7.08%	5.57%	4.22%	3.74%	3.01%	2.80%	2.14%	2.08%	1.49%	1.24%	0.88%	0.85%	0.99%	0.59%	0.40%	0.39%	0.24%	0.15%	0.16%	0.09%	0.08%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%	—	0.01%	—
Baltimore Ravens	10.45%	13.25%	10.42%	9.53%	7.86%	6.65%	6.03%	5.35%	4.88%	3.93%	3.58%	3.09%	2.73%	2.15%	2.12%	1.32%	1.49%	1.12%	0.95%	0.65%	0.64%	0.54%	0.42%	0.28%	0.14%	0.11%	0.15%	0.10%	0.03%	0.04%	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.88%	10.11%	9.05%	7.59%	8.04%	6.63%	6.49%	5.40%	5.10%	4.92%	4.23%	3.70%	3.26%	2.97%	2.47%	2.15%	1.78%	1.61%	1.41%	1.14%	0.88%	0.73%	0.66%	0.48%	0.31%	0.21%	0.34%	0.16%	0.10%	0.08%	0.12%	—
New Orleans Saints	6.77%	6.99%	9.37%	9.82%	7.88%	8.08%	6.77%	6.00%	5.24%	4.74%	4.35%	3.99%	3.02%	2.95%	2.27%	2.04%	1.51%	1.64%	1.24%	1.14%	0.86%	0.83%	0.63%	0.51%	0.34%	0.37%	0.23%	0.17%	0.09%	0.10%	0.05%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	3.86%	5.25%	7.07%	7.97%	8.36%	8.57%	7.20%	7.46%	5.71%	6.02%	4.20%	4.21%	3.19%	3.56%	2.80%	2.90%	1.95%	1.74%	1.37%	1.34%	1.01%	1.00%	0.73%	0.67%	0.46%	0.39%	0.28%	0.28%	0.18%	0.14%	0.08%	0.05%
Houston Texans	3.73%	5.37%	6.61%	6.88%	7.51%	7.60%	6.63%	6.30%	5.70%	5.68%	4.92%	4.31%	3.94%	3.42%	3.15%	2.80%	2.26%	2.38%	1.69%	1.63%	1.46%	1.22%	1.07%	0.87%	0.82%	0.60%	0.44%	0.36%	0.24%	0.24%	0.07%	0.10%
Atlanta Falcons	2.04%	3.02%	4.74%	5.48%	5.37%	5.17%	5.47%	5.62%	5.29%	5.68%	5.56%	5.64%	4.56%	4.84%	3.75%	4.14%	3.45%	2.66%	2.63%	2.65%	2.04%	1.81%	1.80%	1.44%	1.21%	1.03%	0.83%	0.73%	0.57%	0.38%	0.27%	0.13%
New York Jets	2.16%	3.76%	4.38%	4.58%	5.69%	4.72%	5.00%	4.97%	6.15%	4.82%	5.62%	5.22%	4.79%	4.10%	3.88%	3.56%	3.47%	3.44%	3.14%	2.33%	2.48%	2.24%	1.84%	1.43%	1.54%	1.04%	1.04%	0.85%	0.67%	0.60%	0.33%	0.16%
San Diego Chargers	1.17%	1.98%	2.83%	3.18%	4.39%	4.95%	5.10%	5.70%	5.18%	5.54%	4.70%	5.25%	4.65%	4.59%	4.45%	4.18%	3.67%	3.71%	3.20%	3.02%	2.61%	2.56%	2.27%	2.08%	1.90%	1.80%	1.54%	1.20%	0.95%	0.78%	0.57%	0.30%
Dallas Cowboys	0.96%	1.80%	2.82%	3.67%	4.20%	5.17%	4.83%	5.71%	4.73%	5.29%	4.83%	4.91%	4.49%	4.62%	4.37%	3.97%	3.58%	3.66%	3.78%	3.24%	3.14%	2.77%	2.48%	2.08%	1.94%	1.71%	1.39%	1.21%	0.87%	0.84%	0.60%	0.34%
Chicago Bears	1.46%	2.17%	2.70%	3.06%	3.88%	3.96%	4.40%	5.11%	5.61%	5.19%	4.91%	4.68%	5.39%	4.61%	4.77%	4.50%	4.63%	3.57%	3.58%	3.22%	3.15%	2.90%	2.55%	2.04%	1.66%	1.44%	1.48%	0.94%	0.79%	0.82%	0.52%	0.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.79%	1.50%	2.60%	3.10%	3.86%	3.92%	4.34%	4.48%	4.44%	4.09%	4.58%	4.80%	4.95%	4.63%	3.75%	4.29%	3.92%	4.01%	3.76%	3.95%	3.14%	3.44%	2.67%	3.02%	2.48%	2.31%	1.98%	1.65%	1.14%	1.18%	0.57%	0.66%
Tennessee Titans	0.71%	1.70%	2.55%	2.83%	3.25%	3.47%	3.94%	4.06%	4.50%	4.77%	4.70%	4.88%	4.49%	4.66%	4.68%	5.11%	3.77%	3.87%	3.82%	3.72%	3.32%	3.42%	2.77%	2.77%	2.26%	2.32%	1.70%	1.56%	1.50%	1.24%	1.03%	0.63%
Detroit Lions	1.03%	1.19%	2.01%	2.44%	2.83%	3.03%	4.18%	4.37%	4.48%	4.78%	4.76%	4.98%	5.05%	4.80%	4.43%	4.44%	4.49%	4.33%	4.01%	4.18%	3.54%	3.40%	2.65%	2.84%	2.44%	1.96%	1.85%	1.80%	1.28%	1.26%	0.65%	0.52%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.96%	1.76%	2.15%	2.39%	3.01%	2.88%	3.63%	3.61%	4.36%	3.96%	4.22%	4.38%	4.73%	4.73%	4.22%	4.76%	5.00%	4.99%	4.34%	3.84%	3.66%	3.49%	3.09%	3.12%	2.43%	2.21%	2.07%	1.66%	1.61%	1.05%	0.98%	0.71%
New York Giants	0.51%	0.77%	1.80%	2.04%	2.58%	3.44%	3.23%	3.83%	3.91%	4.46%	4.65%	4.50%	4.41%	4.82%	4.82%	4.51%	4.33%	4.49%	4.05%	4.07%	3.77%	3.68%	3.47%	2.99%	2.93%	2.85%	2.31%	2.15%	1.67%	1.34%	0.96%	0.66%
Oakland Raiders	0.29%	0.76%	1.08%	1.29%	1.82%	2.42%	2.51%	2.84%	3.05%	3.59%	3.76%	3.93%	4.36%	4.21%	4.44%	4.84%	4.27%	4.49%	4.35%	4.51%	4.57%	3.86%	3.87%	3.84%	3.55%	3.33%	3.02%	2.39%	2.83%	2.40%	2.16%	1.37%
Seattle Seahawks	0.09%	0.21%	0.46%	0.85%	1.02%	1.22%	1.69%	1.75%	1.93%	2.27%	2.86%	2.69%	3.45%	3.81%	3.89%	4.91%	4.13%	4.55%	4.31%	5.20%	4.81%	4.78%	4.26%	5.01%	4.06%	4.70%	4.01%	3.70%	3.75%	3.58%	3.27%	2.78%
Miami Dolphins	0.13%	0.28%	0.49%	0.56%	0.89%	1.02%	1.49%	1.39%	2.14%	2.10%	2.53%	2.62%	3.24%	3.06%	3.22%	3.49%	4.59%	4.22%	4.51%	4.45%	4.94%	4.46%	4.74%	4.66%	5.07%	5.14%	4.72%	4.67%	4.54%	4.00%	3.84%	2.80%
Buffalo Bills	0.12%	0.34%	0.59%	0.62%	0.78%	1.03%	1.54%	1.24%	2.23%	1.88%	2.72%	2.35%	3.47%	2.87%	4.01%	2.88%	4.56%	3.75%	4.81%	4.09%	5.25%	4.31%	5.25%	4.37%	5.27%	4.73%	4.84%	4.84%	4.37%	4.40%	3.94%	2.55%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.04%	0.17%	0.45%	0.51%	0.59%	0.68%	1.16%	1.27%	1.50%	1.72%	2.09%	2.35%	2.53%	2.46%	3.00%	3.26%	3.77%	4.15%	4.17%	4.77%	4.70%	5.31%	4.79%	5.55%	4.96%	5.17%	4.89%	5.29%	4.99%	5.44%	4.19%	4.08%
Washington Redskins	0.08%	0.14%	0.24%	0.59%	0.59%	1.00%	0.98%	1.27%	1.32%	1.72%	1.96%	2.48%	2.45%	3.02%	2.97%	3.71%	3.67%	3.49%	4.26%	4.46%	4.44%	4.83%	4.94%	4.91%	5.27%	6.09%	5.23%	5.42%	5.19%	4.93%	4.18%	4.17%
Denver Broncos	0.09%	0.12%	0.35%	0.47%	0.64%	0.76%	1.13%	1.19%	1.64%	1.68%	2.09%	2.17%	2.50%	2.41%	3.40%	3.05%	3.63%	3.68%	4.21%	3.61%	4.46%	4.49%	4.66%	4.42%	5.21%	5.28%	5.28%	5.44%	5.88%	5.43%	5.69%	4.94%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.07%	0.16%	0.36%	0.26%	0.46%	0.67%	0.89%	0.88%	1.30%	1.27%	1.46%	1.54%	2.07%	2.26%	2.90%	2.90%	3.53%	3.66%	3.80%	3.74%	4.40%	4.85%	5.13%	5.33%	5.21%	5.34%	5.79%	5.77%	5.88%	5.98%	6.38%	5.76%
Arizona Cardinals	0.03%	0.04%	0.13%	0.24%	0.45%	0.57%	0.76%	0.86%	1.10%	1.30%	1.40%	2.01%	1.81%	2.69%	2.62%	3.25%	2.77%	3.66%	4.18%	4.73%	3.63%	4.53%	5.33%	5.93%	5.35%	5.51%	5.51%	5.63%	5.79%	5.59%	6.04%	6.56%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.08%	0.14%	0.17%	0.28%	0.61%	0.61%	0.88%	0.88%	1.05%	1.50%	1.44%	1.79%	2.18%	2.58%	2.38%	3.08%	3.39%	3.84%	3.84%	4.40%	4.64%	4.86%	4.86%	5.71%	6.22%	5.96%	6.45%	6.45%	6.79%	6.85%	6.08%
Minnesota Vikings	0.04%	0.01%	0.08%	0.17%	0.24%	0.24%	0.44%	0.64%	0.53%	0.91%	1.24%	1.34%	1.45%	1.80%	2.06%	2.16%	2.94%	2.77%	3.22%	3.70%	3.93%	4.07%	4.65%	5.11%	5.99%	5.70%	6.73%	7.35%	7.69%	7.50%	7.73%	7.57%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.05%	0.09%	0.16%	0.28%	0.36%	0.41%	0.54%	0.61%	0.97%	0.87%	1.16%	1.33%	1.73%	2.32%	2.33%	2.50%	2.92%	3.09%	3.45%	4.09%	4.28%	5.06%	5.20%	5.66%	5.78%	6.60%	6.97%	6.98%	8.03%	7.60%	8.57%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	0.05%	0.09%	0.12%	0.20%	0.22%	0.39%	0.46%	0.63%	0.75%	0.99%	1.10%	1.46%	1.55%	2.18%	1.92%	2.66%	2.65%	3.05%	3.23%	3.86%	4.04%	4.93%	4.71%	6.35%	5.99%	7.32%	6.83%	7.64%	7.67%	8.86%	8.08%
Indianapolis Colts	0.01%	0.04%	0.03%	0.05%	0.25%	0.28%	0.51%	0.42%	0.55%	0.66%	0.85%	1.15%	1.41%	1.90%	2.09%	2.09%	2.29%	2.94%	2.81%	3.60%	3.88%	4.32%	4.90%	5.11%	5.25%	5.74%	6.51%	7.22%	8.05%	7.64%	8.74%	8.71%
St. Louis Rams	—	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.08%	0.07%	0.12%	0.19%	0.22%	0.24%	0.42%	0.54%	0.74%	0.87%	1.10%	1.35%	1.38%	1.75%	2.03%	2.48%	2.91%	3.34%	4.19%	4.12%	4.85%	5.89%	7.17%	8.26%	10.53%	13.72%	21.40%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	29.44%	25.43%	12.51%	4.39%	9.12%	7.50%	11.61%
Baltimore Ravens	24.09%	15.89%	7.01%	2.05%	21.42%	10.70%	18.84%
Pittsburgh Steelers	19.15%	13.07%	6.36%	2.13%	22.09%	12.17%	25.03%
Houston Texans	9.20%	14.31%	23.45%	15.68%	3.69%	5.68%	27.99%
New York Jets	6.36%	7.64%	5.17%	2.04%	14.77%	16.23%	47.79%
San Diego Chargers	3.19%	6.95%	14.37%	27.77%	1.55%	3.81%	42.36%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.97%	3.56%	2.22%	0.99%	10.37%	11.14%	68.75%
Tennessee Titans	2.60%	5.55%	10.68%	9.17%	4.71%	8.10%	59.19%
Oakland Raiders	1.12%	2.90%	7.27%	16.01%	1.43%	3.87%	67.40%
Buffalo Bills	0.57%	1.17%	1.01%	0.66%	3.44%	5.66%	87.49%
Miami Dolphins	0.49%	1.16%	1.23%	0.73%	3.07%	6.09%	87.23%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.29%	0.65%	2.49%	2.52%	1.29%	2.19%	90.57%
Denver Broncos	0.27%	0.89%	2.96%	7.70%	0.77%	2.25%	85.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.10%	0.45%	1.90%	6.15%	0.47%	1.37%	89.56%
Cleveland Browns	0.09%	0.19%	0.15%	0.08%	1.25%	1.94%	96.30%
Indianapolis Colts	0.07%	0.19%	1.22%	1.93%	0.56%	1.30%	94.73%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Green Bay Packers	62.57%	17.60%	5.71%	1.52%	8.01%	2.38%	2.21%
New Orleans Saints	12.51%	22.40%	16.83%	8.62%	10.09%	9.06%	20.49%
San Francisco 49ers	7.21%	19.14%	23.72%	29.27%	1.43%	2.64%	16.59%
Atlanta Falcons	5.13%	11.61%	10.17%	6.15%	11.88%	13.36%	41.70%
Chicago Bears	3.55%	1.90%	1.16%	0.35%	23.48%	14.23%	55.33%
Dallas Cowboys	2.33%	8.19%	12.45%	13.66%	4.82%	8.64%	49.91%
Detroit Lions	2.31%	1.66%	0.95%	0.23%	19.72%	12.62%	62.51%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.08%	7.17%	10.41%	10.82%	5.07%	8.37%	56.08%
New York Giants	1.27%	5.06%	8.33%	10.42%	4.01%	7.88%	63.03%
Seattle Seahawks	0.35%	1.78%	3.36%	7.81%	2.18%	4.60%	79.92%
Washington Redskins	0.24%	1.02%	2.60%	3.95%	1.41%	3.46%	87.32%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.22%	1.30%	1.52%	1.36%	3.12%	4.44%	88.04%
Carolina Panthers	0.09%	0.35%	0.82%	0.92%	1.20%	2.36%	94.26%
Arizona Cardinals	0.07%	0.58%	1.62%	3.84%	1.19%	2.68%	90.02%
Minnesota Vikings	0.07%	0.18%	0.14%	0.10%	2.14%	2.61%	94.76%
St. Louis Rams	—	0.06%	0.21%	0.98%	0.25%	0.67%	97.83%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Green Bay Packers	93.22%	93.22%	69.08%	47.41%	28.92%
New England Patriots	80.27%	80.27%	58.86%	39.32%	21.21%
New Orleans Saints	66.66%	66.66%	40.82%	20.41%	11.85%
Baltimore Ravens	65.40%	65.40%	39.09%	19.70%	8.45%
San Francisco 49ers	66.28%	66.28%	33.51%	14.49%	7.50%
Pittsburgh Steelers	58.91%	58.91%	32.67%	16.56%	6.74%
Houston Texans	51.16%	51.16%	22.22%	8.97%	3.20%
Atlanta Falcons	41.56%	37.37%	15.41%	5.05%	2.24%
San Diego Chargers	47.50%	36.06%	14.21%	5.49%	1.90%
Philadelphia Eagles	34.67%	28.48%	11.09%	3.90%	1.82%
Detroit Lions	33.52%	18.30%	6.58%	2.58%	1.15%
New York Jets	38.21%	29.10%	9.97%	3.47%	1.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	24.72%	16.87%	6.30%	2.18%	0.72%
New York Giants	30.64%	20.42%	6.41%	1.90%	0.67%
Chicago Bears	39.22%	18.89%	5.01%	1.60%	0.55%
Tennessee Titans	32.66%	20.97%	6.46%	1.83%	0.54%
Dallas Cowboys	39.57%	25.99%	6.59%	1.50%	0.52%
Oakland Raiders	28.58%	15.03%	3.80%	0.99%	0.26%
Seattle Seahawks	17.95%	9.18%	2.62%	0.69%	0.22%
Miami Dolphins	11.12%	5.86%	1.93%	0.54%	0.17%
Carolina Panthers	5.30%	2.33%	0.58%	0.14%	0.06%
Buffalo Bills	10.77%	4.65%	1.11%	0.23%	0.06%
Arizona Cardinals	9.33%	3.98%	0.85%	0.14%	0.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.89%	4.19%	0.95%	0.24%	0.05%
Denver Broncos	13.68%	5.74%	1.27%	0.32%	0.05%
Jacksonville Jaguars	8.49%	3.23%	0.72%	0.11%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	10.44%	3.14%	0.44%	0.04%	0.01%
Washington Redskins	11.42%	4.14%	0.75%	0.09%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	4.99%	1.19%	0.21%	0.05%	—
Indianapolis Colts	5.01%	1.40%	0.19%	0.01%	—
St. Louis Rams	2.11%	0.43%	0.05%	0.01%	—
Cleveland Browns	3.42%	1.16%	0.25%	0.04%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.67%	1.14%	0.18%	1.45%	3.28%	0.60%	0.86%	0.97%	0.55%	1.06%	1.69%	3.39%	2.07%	4.43%	3.08%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%		0.10%	0.01%	0.20%	0.41%	0.12%	0.19%	0.21%	0.01%	0.13%	0.16%	0.37%	0.10%	0.45%	0.38%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.46%	0.19%		0.04%	0.63%	1.51%	0.26%	0.47%	0.60%	0.20%	0.36%	0.69%	1.43%	0.44%	1.69%	1.37%
Cleveland Browns	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%		0.05%	0.14%	0.01%	0.05%	0.08%	0.01%	0.04%	0.07%	0.13%	0.01%	0.14%	0.07%
Denver Broncos	0.63%	0.24%	0.44%	0.12%		0.27%	0.05%	0.15%	0.05%	0.17%	0.20%	0.82%	0.28%	0.51%	0.25%	0.40%
Houston Texans	3.25%	1.39%	3.26%	0.54%	0.77%		0.51%	0.95%	0.42%	1.53%	1.19%	4.49%	1.43%	3.14%	1.38%	3.40%
Indianapolis Colts	0.18%	0.07%	0.11%	0.01%	0.02%	0.19%		0.03%	0.03%	0.04%	0.06%	0.14%	0.07%	0.07%	0.10%	0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.24%	0.14%	0.17%	0.04%	0.12%	0.27%	0.04%		0.05%	0.11%	0.10%	0.33%	0.18%	0.18%	0.14%	0.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.37%	0.26%	0.36%	0.09%	0.08%	0.25%	0.06%	0.13%		0.17%	0.15%	0.63%	0.13%	0.43%	0.25%	0.28%
Miami Dolphins	0.21%	0.07%	0.21%	0.03%	0.24%	0.74%	0.12%	0.15%	0.09%		0.23%	0.25%	0.53%	0.24%	0.64%	0.46%
New England Patriots	1.82%	1.24%	1.63%	0.26%	1.34%	3.12%	0.29%	0.66%	0.73%	1.12%		3.84%	2.15%	1.92%	2.83%	2.45%
New York Jets	0.66%	0.25%	0.65%	0.08%	1.12%	2.35%	0.41%	0.48%	0.75%	0.20%	0.95%		2.19%	0.59%	2.62%	1.80%
Oakland Raiders	1.25%	0.74%	1.18%	0.25%	0.35%	0.59%	0.18%	0.27%	0.18%	0.39%	0.54%	1.94%		1.56%	0.76%	0.83%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.77%	0.63%	0.97%	0.24%	1.65%	4.31%	0.67%	0.83%	1.34%	0.49%	1.19%	1.66%	2.89%		4.85%	3.20%
San Diego Chargers	3.51%	1.32%	2.83%	0.48%	0.71%	1.39%	0.34%	0.66%	0.49%	1.30%	1.41%	4.43%	1.59%	3.54%		1.92%
Tennessee Titans	1.30%	0.64%	1.30%	0.17%	0.37%	2.03%	0.21%	0.32%	0.26%	0.62%	0.51%	1.97%	0.81%	1.26%	1.05%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.35%	0.08%	0.52%	0.48%	0.47%	0.02%	0.05%	0.26%	0.26%	0.21%	0.25%	0.07%	0.01%	0.21%	0.09%
Atlanta Falcons	0.69%		0.27%	2.05%	3.12%	1.63%	0.44%	0.38%	2.41%	1.90%	1.92%	2.49%	1.34%	0.17%	0.79%	1.03%
Carolina Panthers	0.05%	0.17%		0.22%	0.35%	0.17%	0.06%	0.02%	0.08%	0.13%	0.15%	0.29%	0.08%	0.02%	0.06%	0.04%
Chicago Bears	0.51%	1.10%	0.16%		2.64%	0.09%	0.26%	0.03%	0.95%	1.62%	1.25%	2.53%	0.81%	0.22%	0.47%	0.80%
Dallas Cowboys	0.45%	1.73%	0.43%	2.79%		1.78%	0.32%	0.52%	0.86%	1.42%	1.46%	0.82%	0.93%	0.18%	0.99%	0.79%
Detroit Lions	0.68%	1.13%	0.19%	0.11%	2.53%		0.26%	0.02%	1.16%	1.50%	1.52%	2.67%	1.09%	0.21%	0.41%	0.85%
Green Bay Packers	0.51%	1.35%	0.25%	1.21%	1.70%	1.02%		0.23%	0.81%	1.15%	1.31%	1.74%	0.71%	0.12%	0.48%	0.46%
Minnesota Vikings	0.02%	0.09%	0.02%	0.02%	0.12%	0.01%	0.01%		0.06%	0.14%	0.10%	0.18%	0.07%		0.01%	0.09%
New Orleans Saints	0.81%	5.10%	0.54%	4.23%	3.43%	3.06%	0.75%	0.89%		3.05%	2.69%	2.62%	1.56%	0.23%	1.30%	1.49%
New York Giants	0.30%	1.63%	0.19%	2.38%	1.91%	1.59%	0.44%	0.36%	0.81%		1.11%	1.10%	0.86%	0.11%	0.72%	0.58%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.66%	2.11%	0.41%	2.72%	2.80%	2.23%	0.44%	0.43%	1.47%	1.67%		1.41%	1.05%	0.10%	1.00%	0.73%
San Francisco 49ers	1.11%	4.90%	0.67%	7.67%	3.45%	5.75%	1.35%	0.98%	3.10%	2.80%	2.83%		2.13%	0.26%	1.78%	1.15%
Seattle Seahawks	0.11%	0.89%	0.12%	1.10%	0.89%	0.90%	0.16%	0.09%	0.54%	0.53%	0.49%	0.56%		0.04%	0.38%	0.25%
St. Louis Rams	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.07%	0.06%	0.04%			0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%		0.02%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.05%	0.07%	0.05%	0.13%	0.22%	0.09%	0.01%	0.01%	0.13%	0.16%	0.19%	0.17%	0.12%	0.05%		0.17%
Washington Redskins	0.04%	0.29%	0.01%	0.56%	0.40%	0.36%	0.05%	0.04%	0.16%	0.20%	0.20%	0.28%	0.07%	0.02%	0.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.79%	2.44%	0.16%	0.96%	6.27%	0.20%	0.50%	0.74%	0.99%	4.79%	3.64%	2.13%	8.14%	4.32%	3.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.19%		0.06%	0.02%	0.01%	0.18%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%		0.13%	0.08%	0.08%	0.17%	0.08%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.09%	0.12%		0.01%	0.10%	0.96%	0.03%	0.04%	0.11%	0.11%	0.94%	0.59%	0.29%	0.85%	0.67%	0.39%
Cleveland Browns	0.04%		0.01%		0.01%	0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.02%	0.03%	0.02%		0.01%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	0.17%	0.04%	0.10%	0.01%		0.27%	0.02%	0.04%		0.02%	0.21%	0.12%	0.02%	0.16%	0.01%	0.08%
Houston Texans	3.71%	0.51%	1.26%	0.15%	0.49%		0.02%	0.13%	0.42%	0.46%	4.04%	2.41%	1.42%	3.61%	2.66%	0.93%
Indianapolis Colts		0.01%			0.01%	0.01%					0.02%	0.06%	0.03%	0.04%	0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.14%	0.03%	0.02%		0.03%	0.02%			0.01%		0.11%	0.05%	0.04%	0.15%	0.11%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.18%	0.01%	0.05%			0.15%	0.02%	0.01%		0.01%	0.21%	0.10%		0.10%	0.02%	0.09%
Miami Dolphins	0.33%		0.08%		0.03%	0.37%	0.01%	0.04%	0.01%		0.29%	0.15%	0.08%	0.17%	0.22%	0.15%
New England Patriots	7.62%	0.97%	2.93%	0.21%	1.56%	10.59%	0.44%	0.97%	1.18%	1.19%		6.53%	3.91%	7.68%	8.28%	4.80%
New York Jets	1.29%	0.17%	0.51%	0.14%	0.21%	1.74%	0.09%	0.12%	0.16%	0.06%	1.74%		0.56%	1.34%	1.08%	0.76%
Oakland Raiders	0.72%	0.09%	0.14%	0.01%	0.01%	0.62%	0.03%	0.07%		0.06%	0.66%	0.41%		0.56%	0.12%	0.30%
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.55%	0.43%	1.82%	0.15%	0.75%	4.80%	0.23%	0.34%	0.44%	0.67%	4.48%	2.83%	1.97%		3.46%	2.75%
San Diego Chargers	2.21%	0.29%	0.78%	0.04%	0.14%	2.38%	0.09%	0.18%	0.03%	0.27%	2.55%	1.62%	0.32%	2.17%		1.14%
Tennessee Titans	1.07%	0.08%	0.37%	0.01%	0.16%	0.52%		0.05%	0.12%	0.09%	1.22%	0.51%	0.36%	1.10%	0.80%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.14%	0.01%	0.07%	0.08%	0.03%	0.17%	0.01%	0.13%	0.02%	0.11%	0.04%	0.01%		0.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.29%		0.08%	0.76%	1.85%	0.46%	2.57%	0.04%	1.84%	1.14%	1.40%	3.74%	0.75%	0.05%	0.10%	0.34%
Carolina Panthers		0.02%		0.03%	0.09%	0.01%	0.15%		0.04%	0.06%	0.06%	0.09%	0.01%			0.02%
Chicago Bears	0.09%	0.46%	0.02%		0.40%	0.24%	1.55%	0.03%	0.70%	0.23%	0.24%	0.77%	0.11%	0.01%	0.07%	0.09%
Dallas Cowboys	0.13%	0.99%	0.11%	0.43%		0.25%	1.13%	0.05%	1.35%	0.11%	0.15%	1.41%	0.22%	0.03%	0.20%	0.03%
Detroit Lions	0.04%	0.62%	0.03%	0.31%	0.43%		2.25%	0.02%	0.91%	0.34%	0.39%	0.86%	0.21%	0.02%	0.10%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	1.47%	7.82%	0.73%	7.60%	6.47%	6.66%		0.45%	9.11%	5.23%	6.77%	11.59%	2.82%	0.13%	0.87%	1.36%
Minnesota Vikings		0.05%		0.01%	0.01%		0.06%		0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.71%	3.66%	0.14%	2.01%	5.04%	1.78%	5.83%	0.18%		3.74%	4.70%	10.15%	1.61%	0.11%	0.27%	0.89%
New York Giants	0.13%	0.95%	0.09%	0.32%	0.22%	0.27%	1.31%	0.01%	1.09%		0.22%	1.43%	0.22%	0.01%	0.14%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.11%	1.65%	0.14%	0.43%	0.39%	0.42%	2.28%	0.03%	2.45%	0.23%		2.37%	0.34%		0.23%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	0.12%	5.07%	0.40%	1.77%	4.04%	1.41%	6.13%	0.16%	7.39%	2.65%	3.06%		0.19%		0.60%	0.52%
Seattle Seahawks		0.35%		0.07%	0.28%	0.12%	0.56%		0.59%	0.19%	0.25%	0.11%			0.05%	0.05%
St. Louis Rams					0.01%		0.01%		0.02%			0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.03%		0.02%	0.05%	0.04%	0.05%		0.05%	0.06%	0.01%	0.05%	0.03%			0.02%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.15%		0.05%	0.04%	0.03%	0.09%		0.15%		0.01%	0.13%	0.03%	0.02%	0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.19%	0.49%		0.19%	2.83%	0.06%	0.23%	0.17%	0.40%	7.49%	1.87%	0.75%	2.19%	1.80%	1.04%
Buffalo Bills	0.05%					0.02%			0.01%		0.05%		0.01%	0.06%	0.01%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.28%	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.32%		0.01%		0.05%	0.67%	0.17%	0.03%	0.27%	0.21%	0.13%
Cleveland Browns											0.01%			0.03%
Denver Broncos	0.04%		0.01%			0.02%					0.07%	0.04%		0.11%	0.03%
Houston Texans	2.10%	0.07%	0.40%	0.03%	0.09%			0.01%	0.05%	0.07%	2.37%	0.64%	0.27%	1.75%	0.90%	0.22%
Indianapolis Colts									0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.03%		0.01%								0.03%	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.03%					0.07%		0.01%			0.07%	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%	0.03%
Miami Dolphins	0.14%		0.01%			0.04%	0.01%				0.11%	0.01%	0.02%	0.13%	0.04%	0.03%
New England Patriots	11.76%	0.27%	2.11%	0.11%	0.42%	6.01%	0.05%	0.21%	0.27%	0.34%		1.73%	0.96%	9.46%	3.75%	1.87%
New York Jets	0.76%	0.04%	0.17%	0.01%	0.02%	0.51%		0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.70%		0.15%	0.67%	0.26%	0.13%
Oakland Raiders	0.22%	0.01%	0.08%	0.01%		0.15%		0.01%		0.01%	0.24%	0.03%		0.16%	0.03%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.51%	0.22%	0.50%	0.03%	0.16%	2.40%	0.05%	0.08%	0.13%	0.38%	5.83%	1.52%	0.48%		1.52%	0.75%
San Diego Chargers	1.08%	0.02%	0.23%		0.03%	0.73%	0.01%	0.04%	0.02%	0.08%	1.54%	0.34%	0.09%	0.92%		0.36%
Tennessee Titans	0.39%	0.04%	0.11%	0.01%	0.03%	0.15%			0.02%	0.05%	0.36%	0.13%	0.05%	0.34%	0.15%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals				0.01%	0.01%		0.04%		0.02%	0.02%		0.03%				0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.03%			0.33%	0.15%	0.30%	2.08%		0.71%	0.18%	0.22%	0.94%	0.09%			0.02%
Carolina Panthers		0.01%		0.01%			0.05%		0.01%		0.01%	0.05%
Chicago Bears	0.01%	0.20%	0.01%		0.07%	0.04%	0.38%		0.30%	0.10%	0.10%	0.30%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%
Dallas Cowboys		0.19%	0.01%	0.05%		0.05%	0.60%		0.24%	0.03%	0.04%	0.25%	0.03%		0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.02%	0.31%	0.02%	0.05%	0.11%		0.50%		0.60%	0.17%	0.16%	0.49%	0.10%		0.01%	0.04%
Green Bay Packers	0.41%	6.09%	0.20%	1.11%	2.86%	1.56%		0.05%	14.56%	2.34%	4.29%	12.23%	1.05%	0.02%	0.27%	0.37%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%	0.01%					0.01%		0.01%		0.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.10%	1.63%	0.11%	0.88%	0.82%	1.15%	9.57%	0.07%		0.80%	1.24%	3.54%	0.33%		0.06%	0.11%
New York Giants	0.03%	0.16%	0.02%	0.08%	0.08%	0.07%	0.77%		0.26%		0.04%	0.29%	0.07%	0.01%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.04%	0.43%		0.17%	0.13%	0.16%	1.17%	0.01%	0.72%	0.14%		0.86%	0.07%
San Francisco 49ers	0.06%	1.19%	0.07%	0.67%	0.80%	0.62%	6.23%	0.03%	2.84%	0.72%	1.02%		0.15%		0.02%	0.07%
Seattle Seahawks		0.09%		0.04%	0.06%	0.03%	0.23%		0.13%	0.01%	0.06%	0.04%
St. Louis Rams		0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.01%		0.01%			0.01%						0.01%
Washington Redskins		0.03%				0.02%	0.03%		0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.01%																0.01%						0.02%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			0.28%				0.04%			0.02%			0.28%						0.84%			0.10%	0.03%		0.40%	0.22%					0.03%
Baltimore Ravens	0.02%	0.58%			0.01%	0.23%			0.18%		0.29%	3.37%								1.77%	0.27%			0.43%			1.21%	0.08%				0.01%
Buffalo Bills												0.02%								0.02%				0.01%					0.01%
Carolina Panthers			0.01%				0.01%						0.02%						0.02%
Chicago Bears			0.11%							0.01%			0.06%		0.01%		0.01%		0.15%			0.05%			0.15%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.05%				0.01%					0.02%	0.27%						0.01%		0.13%	0.01%			0.08%			0.13%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.06%	0.01%			0.02%						0.08%						0.15%			0.03%			0.09%	0.08%
Denver Broncos		0.02%							0.01%			0.02%
Detroit Lions			0.20%				0.02%	0.01%					0.14%						0.42%			0.06%	0.04%		0.17%	0.05%					0.04%
Green Bay Packers			5.95%	0.12%			0.75%	0.01%		0.16%			2.78%	0.01%	0.02%	0.06%	0.16%		9.72%			1.21%	0.40%		5.01%	1.84%					0.72%
Houston Texans	0.01%	0.25%			0.02%	0.09%			0.04%		0.09%	1.36%						0.01%		0.46%	0.08%			0.12%			0.64%	0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars												0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs												0.02%												0.01%			0.02%
Miami Dolphins		0.04%									0.01%	0.06%								0.01%	0.01%						0.04%
New England Patriots	0.03%	1.34%			0.04%	0.47%			0.52%		0.70%	9.18%						0.02%		3.97%	0.54%			0.96%			3.20%	0.18%		0.02%		0.04%
New Orleans Saints			2.57%	0.03%			0.33%	0.01%		0.04%			1.24%		0.05%	0.09%	0.11%		3.77%			0.52%	0.11%		2.01%	0.72%					0.25%
New York Giants			0.09%				0.02%						0.07%				0.01%		0.19%			0.04%	0.03%		0.12%	0.08%					0.02%
New York Jets		0.06%			0.01%	0.02%						0.50%								0.21%	0.04%			0.04%			0.17%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders		0.02%				0.01%			0.01%			0.09%								0.06%	0.01%			0.02%			0.03%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.35%				0.04%			0.02%			0.23%			0.01%	0.02%		0.60%			0.05%	0.02%		0.32%	0.09%					0.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.02%	0.29%				0.16%			0.13%		0.23%	2.75%								1.37%	0.19%			0.32%			1.14%	0.10%		0.01%		0.03%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	0.13%				0.04%			0.07%		0.06%	0.63%								0.40%	0.07%			0.07%			0.38%	0.04%
San Francisco 49ers			1.58%	0.01%			0.21%	0.01%		0.01%			0.84%		0.01%	0.03%	0.06%		2.13%			0.35%	0.10%		1.52%	0.48%					0.16%
Seattle Seahawks			0.04%				0.02%			0.01%			0.03%						0.10%						0.01%	0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers																										0.01%
Tennessee Titans		0.03%				0.02%			0.02%		0.03%	0.20%						0.01%		0.16%	0.01%			0.02%			0.03%	0.01%
Washington Redskins																			0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Green Bay Packers	100.00%	77.95%	51.53%	30.32%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
New England Patriots	100.00%	74.74%	52.03%	26.68%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New Orleans Saints	75.14%	40.39%	18.78%	10.02%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Ravens	100.00%	62.03%	23.70%	9.74%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	51.58%	19.28%	9.18%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Pittsburgh Steelers	74.67%	28.41%	12.99%	5.88%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Texans	65.96%	24.48%	8.23%	3.11%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Atlanta Falcons	50.79%	13.72%	4.74%	2.03%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Giants	49.21%	10.68%	3.19%	1.12%	Won Super Bowl
Detroit Lions	24.86%	5.68%	2.48%	1.00%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cincinnati Bengals	34.04%	6.85%	2.15%	0.77%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Denver Broncos	25.33%	3.49%	0.90%	0.15%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals			34.04%
Denver Broncos				25.33%
Houston Texans	65.96%
Pittsburgh Steelers		74.67%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Detroit Lions	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants
Atlanta Falcons				50.79%
Detroit Lions			24.86%
New Orleans Saints		75.14%
New York Giants	49.21%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens			7.36%	41.48%		13.19%
Cincinnati Bengals					6.85%
Denver Broncos	1.63%				1.86%
Houston Texans	24.48%
New England Patriots		27.19%	14.48%			33.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	11.86%				16.55%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons			9.19%			4.53%
Detroit Lions			5.68%
Green Bay Packers	29.12%	19.18%			29.65%
New Orleans Saints						40.39%
New York Giants			7.18%			3.50%
San Francisco 49ers	7.95%			34.75%	8.88%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens		2.84%	0.89%		14.41%	5.56%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.41%		0.17%			0.57%
Denver Broncos	0.29%	0.14%		0.21%	0.26%
Houston Texans			0.47%		4.73%	3.03%
New England Patriots	31.75%		1.06%	12.96%		6.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.88%	1.72%		3.08%	3.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons		0.50%	0.95%	1.55%		1.74%
Detroit Lions	0.44%				0.31%	1.73%
Green Bay Packers	2.64%			19.06%	2.11%	27.72%
New Orleans Saints	3.46%		12.56%		2.76%
New York Giants		0.40%	0.68%	1.00%		1.11%
San Francisco 49ers	2.44%	2.30%	12.23%		2.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Francisco 49ers
Atlanta Falcons		0.55%	0.08%	0.02%			0.23%	0.91%			0.24%
Baltimore Ravens	0.55%				0.25%	4.34%			1.88%	0.41%		2.31%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.04%				0.02%	0.33%			0.16%	0.04%		0.18%
Denver Broncos	0.01%					0.06%			0.02%			0.06%
Detroit Lions		0.30%	0.02%	0.01%			0.09%	0.42%			0.16%
Green Bay Packers		7.78%	0.84%	0.47%			2.85%	14.31%			4.07%
Houston Texans	0.16%				0.12%	1.35%			0.54%	0.24%		0.70%
New England Patriots	1.61%				0.89%	12.47%			4.82%	1.15%		5.74%
New Orleans Saints		2.61%	0.24%	0.15%			1.11%	4.51%			1.40%
New York Giants		0.27%	0.03%				0.12%	0.54%			0.16%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.34%				0.20%	2.66%			1.34%	0.23%		1.11%
San Francisco 49ers		2.45%	0.17%	0.10%			0.72%	4.66%			1.08%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Green Bay Packers 30.32% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

38.04%

Win Prob

80.51%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

53.79%

Win Prob

69.39%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

47.20%

Win Prob

53.44%

New England Patriots 26.68% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

44.25%

Win Prob

66.65%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

61.02%

Win Prob

68.78%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

46.74%

Win Prob

46.56%

New Orleans Saints 10.02% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.14%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.75%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

66.88%

Win Prob

39.72%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

45.01%

Win Prob

48.34%

Baltimore Ravens 9.74% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

66.87%

Win Prob

62.89%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

60.80%

Win Prob

31.22%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

44.56%

Win Prob

35.81%

San Francisco 49ers 9.18% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

67.37%

Win Prob

46.25%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

63.43%

Win Prob

30.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

50.76%

Win Prob

44.81%

Pittsburgh Steelers 5.88% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

74.67%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

58.25%

Win Prob

33.35%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

37.57%

Win Prob

46.74%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

45.24%

Win Prob

39.52%

Houston Texans 3.11% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.96%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.11%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

57.47%

Win Prob

26.74%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

43.41%

Win Prob

32.14%

Atlanta Falcons 2.03% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

50.79%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

66.98%

Win Prob

23.99%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

36.71%

Win Prob

41.63%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.83%

Win Prob

36.11%

New York Giants 1.12% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.21%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

67.23%

Win Prob

19.49%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

34.80%

Win Prob

32.46%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

48.21%

Win Prob

31.95%

Detroit Lions 1.00% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.86%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

22.85%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

69.76%

Win Prob

42.93%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

42.00%

Win Prob

32.06%

Cincinnati Bengals 0.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.04%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

20.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

65.58%

Win Prob

33.18%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

42.86%

Win Prob

28.21%

Denver Broncos 0.15% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.33%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

53.30%

Win Prob

11.38%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

32.22%

Win Prob

24.58%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

40.00%

Win Prob

11.32%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

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Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2011-09-11	Carolina Panthers	W 28-21	1416.12	1414.10	57.08%	42.68%	+17.82	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 21-22	1433.94	1482.91	36.24%	63.53%	-5.72	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1428.22	1400.40	46.93%	52.84%	-12.82	1-2
2011-10-02	New York Giants	L 27-31	1415.40	1544.33	38.50%	61.27%	-12.15	1-3
2011-10-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-34	1403.25	1421.33	40.44%	59.33%	-31.25	1-4
2011-10-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-32	1372.00	1589.93	27.28%	72.49%	-14.91	1-5
2011-10-30	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 27-30	1357.09	1614.92	14.59%	85.18%	-3.99	1-6
2011-11-06	St. Louis Rams	W 19-13	1353.10	1364.79	55.14%	44.63%	+17.24	2-6
2011-11-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 21-17	1370.34	1524.67	23.66%	76.11%	+23.99	3-6
2011-11-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-23	1394.33	1626.16	16.55%	83.21%	-10.46	3-7
2011-11-27	@ St. Louis Rams	W 23-20	1383.87	1325.57	51.31%	48.45%	+13.24	4-7
2011-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-13	1397.11	1551.02	35.16%	64.61%	+24.94	5-7
2011-12-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 21-19	1422.05	1623.60	29.18%	70.58%	+15.73	6-7
2011-12-18	Cleveland Browns	W 20-17	1437.78	1381.75	64.46%	35.30%	+9.65	7-7
2011-12-24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-23	1447.43	1520.89	33.05%	66.72%	-13.80	7-8
2012-01-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-20	1433.63	1510.81	45.75%	54.02%	+14.75	8-8
2011-09-11	@ Chicago Bears	L 12-30	1548.31	1532.46	45.22%	54.55%	-30.26	0-1
2011-09-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 35-31	1518.05	1564.28	50.19%	49.57%	+15.63	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 13-16	1533.68	1503.89	47.21%	52.55%	-12.89	1-2
2011-10-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-28	1520.79	1413.22	58.32%	41.45%	+9.25	2-2
2011-10-09	Green Bay Packers	L 14-25	1530.04	1684.45	35.09%	64.68%	-18.37	2-3
2011-10-16	Carolina Panthers	W 31-17	1511.67	1388.18	72.75%	27.01%	+15.96	3-3
2011-10-23	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-16	1527.63	1560.73	38.38%	61.39%	+25.60	4-3
2011-11-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 31-7	1553.23	1359.16	69.68%	30.08%	+23.25	5-3
2011-11-13	New Orleans Saints	L 23-26	1576.48	1584.12	55.72%	44.05%	-15.21	5-4
2011-11-20	Tennessee Titans	W 23-17	1561.27	1503.36	64.71%	35.06%	+13.55	6-4
2011-11-27	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-14	1574.82	1398.68	78.30%	21.47%	+10.72	7-4
2011-12-04	@ Houston Texans	L 10-17	1585.54	1636.02	36.04%	63.73%	-15.04	7-5
2011-12-11	@ Carolina Panthers	W 31-23	1570.50	1407.47	65.80%	33.97%	+15.16	8-5
2011-12-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-14	1585.66	1398.98	79.31%	20.46%	+16.78	9-5
2011-12-26	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-45	1602.44	1671.34	33.63%	66.13%	-28.58	9-6
2012-01-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 45-24	1573.86	1293.80	86.70%	13.06%	+9.46	10-6
2011-09-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-7	1568.54	1577.38	55.55%	44.22%	+36.90	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-26	1605.44	1471.85	61.90%	37.87%	-35.17	1-1
2011-09-25	@ St. Louis Rams	W 37-7	1570.27	1397.58	67.03%	32.73%	+28.29	2-1
2011-10-02	New York Jets	W 34-17	1598.56	1565.26	61.42%	38.35%	+24.94	3-1
2011-10-16	Houston Texans	W 29-14	1623.50	1528.90	69.35%	30.41%	+18.59	4-1
2011-10-24	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 7-12	1642.09	1381.44	77.09%	22.68%	-27.17	4-2
2011-10-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 30-27	1614.92	1357.09	85.18%	14.59%	+3.99	5-2
2011-11-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1618.91	1627.79	41.72%	58.05%	+15.85	6-2
2011-11-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-22	1634.76	1381.78	76.31%	23.46%	-26.89	6-3
2011-11-20	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-24	1607.87	1547.53	65.02%	34.74%	+14.50	7-3
2011-11-24	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-6	1622.37	1636.61	54.78%	44.99%	+22.44	8-3
2011-12-04	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-10	1644.81	1403.26	75.10%	24.66%	+14.56	9-3
2011-12-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-10	1659.37	1281.51	91.88%	7.88%	+4.66	10-3
2011-12-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-34	1664.03	1526.76	62.40%	37.37%	-43.98	10-4
2011-12-24	Cleveland Browns	W 20-14	1620.05	1372.10	84.46%	15.31%	+5.92	11-4
2012-01-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-16	1625.97	1534.69	56.03%	43.74%	+19.51	12-4
2011-09-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-7	1444.65	1484.31	37.49%	62.28%	+57.23	1-0
2011-09-18	Oakland Raiders	W 38-35	1501.88	1515.04	54.93%	44.83%	+12.25	2-0
2011-09-25	New England Patriots	W 34-31	1514.13	1635.19	39.58%	60.19%	+16.43	3-0
2011-10-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1530.56	1461.33	52.88%	46.88%	-14.44	3-1
2011-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-24	1516.12	1504.11	58.48%	41.28%	+17.23	4-1
2011-10-16	@ New York Giants	L 24-27	1533.35	1516.79	45.32%	54.45%	-12.38	4-2
2011-10-30	Washington Redskins	W 23-0	1520.97	1439.89	67.68%	32.09%	+24.28	5-2
2011-11-06	New York Jets	L 11-27	1545.25	1563.49	54.21%	45.56%	-34.18	5-3
2011-11-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-44	1511.07	1491.99	45.68%	54.09%	-43.81	5-4
2011-11-20	@ Miami Dolphins	L 8-35	1467.26	1455.00	44.71%	55.06%	-36.64	5-5
2011-11-27	@ New York Jets	L 24-28	1430.62	1539.82	28.66%	71.10%	-9.05	5-6
2011-12-04	Tennessee Titans	L 17-23	1421.57	1503.41	45.08%	54.68%	-17.41	5-7
2011-12-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-37	1404.16	1502.16	30.00%	69.77%	-24.60	5-8
2011-12-18	Miami Dolphins	L 23-30	1379.56	1478.27	42.69%	57.08%	-17.82	5-9
2011-12-24	Denver Broncos	W 40-14	1361.74	1480.39	39.91%	59.86%	+48.11	6-9
2012-01-01	@ New England Patriots	L 21-49	1409.85	1729.39	10.69%	89.07%	-8.94	6-10
2011-09-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-28	1414.10	1416.12	42.68%	57.08%	-17.81	0-1
2011-09-18	Green Bay Packers	L 23-30	1396.29	1642.99	24.12%	75.65%	-10.07	0-2
2011-09-25	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 16-10	1386.22	1452.35	47.33%	52.44%	+20.25	1-2
2011-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 29-34	1406.47	1511.81	29.12%	70.65%	-10.28	1-3
2011-10-09	New Orleans Saints	L 27-30	1396.19	1596.78	29.30%	70.47%	-8.01	1-4
2011-10-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-31	1388.18	1511.67	27.01%	72.75%	-15.95	1-5
2011-10-23	Washington Redskins	W 33-20	1372.23	1472.45	42.48%	57.29%	+32.56	2-5
2011-10-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 21-24	1404.79	1414.15	55.47%	44.29%	-15.15	2-6
2011-11-13	Tennessee Titans	L 3-30	1389.64	1465.74	45.90%	53.86%	-37.61	2-7
2011-11-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 35-49	1352.03	1537.98	20.53%	79.24%	-12.13	2-8
2011-11-27	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-19	1339.90	1307.54	47.58%	52.18%	+23.27	3-8
2011-12-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-19	1363.17	1419.38	35.28%	64.48%	+44.30	4-8
2011-12-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 23-31	1407.47	1570.50	33.97%	65.80%	-15.16	4-9
2011-12-18	@ Houston Texans	W 28-13	1392.31	1657.00	14.10%	85.66%	+52.30	5-9
2011-12-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-16	1444.61	1317.56	73.16%	26.61%	+23.76	6-9
2012-01-01	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-45	1468.37	1699.92	16.58%	83.19%	-13.85	6-10
2011-09-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-12	1532.46	1548.31	54.55%	45.22%	+30.26	1-0
2011-09-18	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-30	1562.72	1527.53	47.99%	51.78%	-31.20	1-1
2011-09-25	Green Bay Packers	L 17-27	1531.52	1653.06	39.51%	60.26%	-19.71	1-2
2011-10-02	Carolina Panthers	W 34-29	1511.81	1406.47	70.65%	29.12%	+10.28	2-2
2011-10-10	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-24	1522.09	1564.40	37.13%	62.64%	-19.43	2-3
2011-10-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 39-10	1502.66	1452.58	63.67%	36.09%	+30.66	3-3
2011-10-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-18	1533.32	1506.43	53.74%	46.02%	+17.78	4-3
2011-11-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-24	1551.10	1546.34	43.64%	56.12%	+21.67	5-3
2011-11-13	Detroit Lions	W 37-13	1572.77	1570.98	57.05%	42.72%	+33.01	6-3
2011-11-20	San Diego Chargers	W 31-20	1605.78	1497.23	71.02%	28.74%	+15.04	7-3
2011-11-27	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-25	1620.82	1486.80	61.96%	37.81%	-21.83	7-4
2011-12-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-10	1598.99	1390.13	81.30%	18.46%	-33.91	7-5
2011-12-11	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-13	1565.08	1484.70	54.48%	45.29%	-14.87	7-6
2011-12-18	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-38	1550.21	1467.16	67.93%	31.84%	-52.45	7-7
2011-12-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-35	1497.76	1749.62	15.02%	84.75%	-8.88	7-8
2012-01-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-13	1488.88	1378.41	58.72%	41.04%	+12.95	8-8
2011-09-11	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-17	1465.47	1459.85	43.76%	56.00%	+27.92	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 22-24	1493.39	1410.18	54.88%	44.89%	-12.24	1-1
2011-09-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 8-13	1481.15	1485.09	56.24%	43.53%	-19.82	1-2
2011-10-02	Buffalo Bills	W 23-20	1461.33	1530.56	46.88%	52.88%	+14.44	2-2
2011-10-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-20	1475.77	1411.35	52.19%	47.58%	+23.72	3-2
2011-10-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-17	1499.49	1420.90	67.37%	32.40%	+16.17	4-2
2011-10-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-12	1515.66	1431.06	55.08%	44.69%	+33.06	5-2
2011-11-06	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1548.72	1485.67	51.99%	47.77%	+19.93	6-2
2011-11-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1568.65	1611.94	50.61%	49.15%	-21.12	6-3
2011-11-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 24-31	1547.53	1607.87	34.74%	65.02%	-14.50	6-4
2011-11-27	Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1533.03	1410.68	72.62%	27.14%	+7.42	7-4
2011-12-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-35	1540.45	1641.07	29.69%	70.08%	-24.79	7-5
2011-12-11	Houston Texans	L 19-20	1515.66	1651.07	37.62%	62.15%	-5.93	7-6
2011-12-18	@ St. Louis Rams	W 20-13	1509.73	1287.11	73.02%	26.74%	+11.16	8-6
2011-12-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 23-16	1520.89	1447.43	66.72%	33.05%	+13.80	9-6
2012-01-01	Baltimore Ravens	L 16-24	1534.69	1625.97	43.74%	56.03%	-19.51	9-7
2011-09-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-27	1459.85	1465.47	56.00%	43.76%	-27.91	0-1
2011-09-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-19	1431.94	1495.84	34.28%	65.49%	+29.19	1-1
2011-09-25	Miami Dolphins	W 17-16	1461.13	1435.94	60.31%	39.46%	+6.22	2-1
2011-10-02	Tennessee Titans	L 13-31	1467.35	1515.68	49.89%	49.88%	-33.37	2-2
2011-10-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-24	1433.98	1528.70	30.40%	69.37%	-12.69	2-3
2011-10-23	Seattle Seahawks	W 6-3	1421.29	1443.66	53.62%	46.15%	+12.60	3-3
2011-10-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-20	1433.89	1585.18	23.98%	75.79%	-11.97	3-4
2011-11-06	@ Houston Texans	L 12-30	1421.92	1575.33	23.75%	76.01%	-15.90	3-5
2011-11-13	St. Louis Rams	L 12-13	1406.02	1347.55	64.78%	34.99%	-10.21	3-6
2011-11-20	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 14-10	1395.81	1425.20	52.61%	47.16%	+14.87	4-6
2011-11-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-23	1410.68	1533.03	27.14%	72.62%	-7.42	4-7
2011-12-04	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1403.26	1644.81	24.66%	75.10%	-14.57	4-8
2011-12-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 3-14	1388.69	1665.86	13.25%	86.51%	-6.94	4-9
2011-12-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-20	1381.75	1437.78	35.30%	64.46%	-9.65	4-10
2011-12-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-20	1372.10	1620.05	15.31%	84.46%	-5.92	4-11
2012-01-01	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-13	1366.18	1645.83	20.82%	78.95%	-6.58	4-12
2011-09-11	@ New York Jets	L 24-27	1499.08	1556.96	35.06%	64.70%	-9.58	0-1
2011-09-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-24	1489.50	1501.04	41.35%	58.42%	+15.94	1-1
2011-09-26	Washington Redskins	W 18-16	1505.44	1488.63	59.15%	40.62%	+9.06	2-1
2011-10-02	Detroit Lions	L 30-34	1514.50	1548.00	52.02%	47.74%	-16.40	2-2
2011-10-16	@ New England Patriots	L 16-20	1498.10	1656.84	23.20%	76.56%	-7.32	2-3
2011-10-23	St. Louis Rams	W 34-7	1490.78	1345.56	75.15%	24.62%	+20.19	3-3
2011-10-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-34	1510.97	1511.14	42.94%	56.82%	-35.20	3-4
2011-11-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 23-13	1475.77	1398.00	67.27%	32.50%	+16.22	4-4
2011-11-13	Buffalo Bills	W 44-7	1491.99	1511.07	54.09%	45.68%	+43.82	5-4
2011-11-20	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-24	1535.81	1381.44	64.67%	35.10%	+9.59	6-4
2011-11-24	Miami Dolphins	W 20-19	1545.40	1491.63	64.16%	35.60%	+5.62	7-4
2011-12-04	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-19	1551.02	1397.11	64.61%	35.16%	-24.95	7-5
2011-12-11	New York Giants	L 34-37	1526.07	1485.96	62.34%	37.43%	-17.01	7-6
2011-12-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-15	1509.06	1338.38	66.78%	32.99%	+20.82	8-6
2011-12-24	Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-20	1529.88	1550.93	53.81%	45.96%	-30.59	8-7
2012-01-01	@ New York Giants	L 14-31	1499.29	1502.60	42.50%	57.26%	-27.64	8-8
2011-09-12	Oakland Raiders	L 20-23	1422.56	1502.66	45.33%	54.44%	-12.38	0-1
2011-09-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-22	1410.18	1493.39	44.89%	54.88%	+12.23	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Tennessee Titans	L 14-17	1422.41	1507.03	31.64%	68.12%	-8.65	1-2
2011-10-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 23-49	1413.76	1672.77	14.50%	85.26%	-11.67	1-3
2011-10-09	San Diego Chargers	L 24-29	1402.09	1559.41	34.71%	65.06%	-12.25	1-4
2011-10-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 18-15	1389.84	1396.71	42.00%	57.76%	+15.77	2-4
2011-10-30	Detroit Lions	L 10-45	1405.61	1535.13	38.42%	61.35%	-35.86	2-5
2011-11-06	@ Oakland Raiders	W 38-24	1369.75	1481.18	28.40%	71.36%	+42.09	3-5
2011-11-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-10	1411.84	1436.87	39.48%	60.29%	+25.14	4-5
2011-11-17	New York Jets	W 17-13	1436.98	1558.83	39.47%	60.30%	+19.01	5-5
2011-11-27	@ San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1455.99	1482.19	39.32%	60.45%	+16.50	6-5
2011-12-04	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 35-32	1472.49	1387.96	55.07%	44.70%	+12.21	7-5
2011-12-11	Chicago Bears	W 13-10	1484.70	1565.08	45.29%	54.48%	+14.87	8-5
2011-12-18	New England Patriots	L 23-41	1499.57	1705.61	28.65%	71.11%	-19.18	8-6
2011-12-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-40	1480.39	1361.74	59.86%	39.91%	-48.11	8-7
2012-01-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-7	1432.28	1419.90	58.53%	41.23%	-18.45	8-8
2011-09-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-20	1474.98	1512.66	37.75%	62.01%	+25.86	1-0
2011-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 48-3	1500.84	1427.07	66.76%	33.01%	+34.94	2-0
2011-09-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 26-23	1535.78	1451.41	55.05%	44.72%	+12.22	3-0
2011-10-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-30	1548.00	1514.50	47.74%	52.02%	+16.40	4-0
2011-10-10	Chicago Bears	W 24-13	1564.40	1522.09	62.64%	37.13%	+19.43	5-0
2011-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 19-25	1583.83	1562.08	59.83%	39.93%	-23.10	5-1
2011-10-23	Atlanta Falcons	L 16-23	1560.73	1527.63	61.39%	38.38%	-25.60	5-2
2011-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	W 45-10	1535.13	1405.61	61.35%	38.42%	+35.85	6-2
2011-11-13	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-37	1570.98	1572.77	42.72%	57.05%	-33.00	6-3
2011-11-20	Carolina Panthers	W 49-35	1537.98	1352.03	79.24%	20.53%	+12.12	7-3
2011-11-24	Green Bay Packers	L 15-27	1550.10	1747.48	29.68%	70.08%	-16.22	7-4
2011-12-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-31	1533.88	1624.53	30.90%	68.87%	-18.25	7-5
2011-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-28	1515.63	1375.75	74.57%	25.19%	+9.74	8-5
2011-12-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 28-27	1525.37	1465.50	51.54%	48.23%	+7.61	9-5
2011-12-24	San Diego Chargers	W 38-10	1532.98	1570.74	51.41%	48.36%	+40.35	10-5
2012-01-01	@ Green Bay Packers	L 41-45	1573.33	1758.50	20.60%	79.16%	-2.17	10-6
2011-09-08	New Orleans Saints	W 42-34	1629.03	1541.50	68.49%	31.28%	+13.96	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-23	1642.99	1396.29	75.65%	24.12%	+10.07	2-0
2011-09-25	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-17	1653.06	1531.52	60.26%	39.51%	+19.71	3-0
2011-10-02	Denver Broncos	W 49-23	1672.77	1413.76	85.26%	14.50%	+11.68	4-0
2011-10-09	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 25-14	1684.45	1530.04	64.68%	35.09%	+18.36	5-0
2011-10-16	St. Louis Rams	W 24-3	1702.81	1352.15	90.67%	9.10%	+6.59	6-0
2011-10-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 33-27	1709.40	1421.92	79.68%	20.08%	+7.77	7-0
2011-11-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 45-38	1717.17	1539.13	67.71%	32.06%	+13.38	8-0
2011-11-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 45-7	1730.55	1429.30	88.03%	11.74%	+11.43	9-0
2011-11-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-26	1741.98	1438.49	88.16%	11.61%	+5.50	10-0
2011-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-15	1747.48	1550.10	70.08%	29.68%	+16.23	11-0
2011-12-04	@ New York Giants	W 38-35	1763.71	1491.86	78.20%	21.57%	+5.90	12-0
2011-12-11	Oakland Raiders	W 46-16	1769.61	1476.07	87.56%	12.21%	+10.56	13-0
2011-12-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-19	1780.17	1403.96	86.66%	13.10%	-30.55	13-1
2011-12-25	Chicago Bears	W 35-21	1749.62	1497.76	84.75%	15.02%	+8.88	14-1
2012-01-01	Detroit Lions	W 45-41	1758.50	1573.33	79.16%	20.60%	+2.17	15-1
2011-09-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-7	1482.53	1537.48	48.94%	50.83%	+41.64	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-13	1524.17	1459.66	52.20%	47.56%	+23.72	2-0
2011-09-25	@ New Orleans Saints	L 33-40	1547.89	1558.73	41.45%	58.32%	-17.30	2-1
2011-10-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 17-10	1530.59	1573.58	50.66%	49.11%	+20.49	3-1
2011-10-09	Oakland Raiders	L 20-25	1551.08	1506.51	62.94%	36.83%	-22.18	3-2
2011-10-16	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-29	1528.90	1623.50	30.41%	69.35%	-18.59	3-3
2011-10-23	@ Tennessee Titans	W 41-7	1510.31	1518.40	41.83%	57.94%	+53.25	4-3
2011-10-30	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-14	1563.56	1408.61	76.17%	23.59%	+11.77	5-3
2011-11-06	Cleveland Browns	W 30-12	1575.33	1421.92	76.01%	23.75%	+15.91	6-3
2011-11-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-9	1591.24	1471.69	59.98%	39.79%	+33.21	7-3
2011-11-27	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-13	1624.45	1410.33	72.06%	27.71%	+11.57	8-3
2011-12-04	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-10	1636.02	1585.54	63.73%	36.04%	+15.05	9-3
2011-12-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-19	1651.07	1515.66	62.15%	37.62%	+5.93	10-3
2011-12-18	Carolina Panthers	L 13-28	1657.00	1392.31	85.66%	14.10%	-52.29	10-4
2011-12-22	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-19	1604.71	1320.40	79.39%	20.38%	-21.68	10-5
2012-01-01	Tennessee Titans	L 22-23	1583.03	1475.76	70.88%	28.89%	-3.72	10-6
2011-09-11	@ Houston Texans	L 7-34	1537.48	1482.53	50.83%	48.94%	-41.64	0-1
2011-09-18	Cleveland Browns	L 19-27	1495.84	1431.94	65.49%	34.28%	-29.20	0-2
2011-09-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1466.64	1561.78	43.20%	56.57%	-11.80	0-3
2011-10-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-24	1454.84	1516.78	34.53%	65.23%	-14.41	0-4
2011-10-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-28	1440.43	1403.30	61.94%	37.83%	-19.53	0-5
2011-10-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-27	1420.90	1499.49	32.40%	67.37%	-16.16	0-6
2011-10-23	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-62	1404.74	1581.52	21.40%	78.36%	-25.06	0-7
2011-10-30	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-27	1379.68	1465.16	31.54%	68.23%	-20.52	0-8
2011-11-06	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-31	1359.16	1553.23	30.08%	69.68%	-23.26	0-9
2011-11-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 3-17	1335.90	1396.83	48.08%	51.69%	-28.36	0-10
2011-11-27	Carolina Panthers	L 19-27	1307.54	1339.90	52.18%	47.58%	-23.27	0-11
2011-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 24-31	1284.27	1695.74	6.59%	93.18%	-2.76	0-12
2011-12-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-24	1281.51	1659.37	7.88%	91.88%	-4.66	0-13
2011-12-18	Tennessee Titans	W 27-13	1276.85	1506.91	25.91%	73.85%	+43.55	1-13
2011-12-22	Houston Texans	W 19-16	1320.40	1604.71	20.38%	79.39%	+21.68	2-13
2012-01-01	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 13-19	1342.08	1369.79	39.11%	60.66%	-15.12	2-14
2011-09-11	Tennessee Titans	W 16-14	1468.94	1481.84	54.97%	44.80%	+9.99	1-0
2011-09-18	@ New York Jets	L 3-32	1478.93	1566.54	31.27%	68.50%	-26.58	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-16	1452.35	1386.22	52.44%	47.33%	-20.25	1-2
2011-10-02	New Orleans Saints	L 10-23	1432.10	1576.03	36.48%	63.29%	-20.75	1-3
2011-10-09	Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-30	1411.35	1475.77	47.58%	52.19%	-23.72	1-4
2011-10-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-17	1387.63	1583.74	19.59%	80.18%	-6.19	1-5
2011-10-24	Baltimore Ravens	W 12-7	1381.44	1642.09	22.68%	77.09%	+27.17	2-5
2011-10-30	@ Houston Texans	L 14-24	1408.61	1563.56	23.59%	76.17%	-11.78	2-6
2011-11-13	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 17-3	1396.83	1335.90	51.69%	48.08%	+28.37	3-6
2011-11-20	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-14	1425.20	1395.81	47.16%	52.61%	-14.87	3-7
2011-11-27	Houston Texans	L 13-20	1410.33	1624.45	27.71%	72.06%	-11.57	3-8
2011-12-05	San Diego Chargers	L 14-38	1398.76	1465.68	47.22%	52.55%	-36.48	3-9
2011-12-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-14	1362.28	1375.08	54.98%	44.78%	+36.70	4-9
2011-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-41	1398.98	1585.66	20.46%	79.31%	-16.79	4-10
2011-12-24	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-23	1382.19	1463.36	32.07%	67.69%	-12.40	4-11
2012-01-01	Indianapolis Colts	W 19-13	1369.79	1342.08	60.66%	39.11%	+15.12	5-11
2011-09-11	Buffalo Bills	L 7-41	1484.31	1444.65	62.28%	37.49%	-57.24	0-1
2011-09-18	@ Detroit Lions	L 3-48	1427.07	1500.84	33.01%	66.76%	-34.94	0-2
2011-09-25	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-20	1392.13	1538.80	24.46%	75.30%	-6.69	0-3
2011-10-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 22-17	1385.44	1439.19	49.11%	50.66%	+17.86	1-3
2011-10-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 28-24	1403.30	1440.43	37.83%	61.94%	+19.53	2-3
2011-10-23	@ Oakland Raiders	W 28-0	1422.83	1541.39	27.58%	72.19%	+60.20	3-3
2011-10-31	San Diego Chargers	W 23-20	1483.03	1553.62	46.69%	53.08%	+14.49	4-3
2011-11-06	Miami Dolphins	L 3-31	1497.52	1374.29	72.72%	27.04%	-60.65	4-4
2011-11-13	Denver Broncos	L 10-17	1436.87	1411.84	60.29%	39.48%	-25.14	4-5
2011-11-21	@ New England Patriots	L 3-34	1411.73	1657.80	15.45%	84.31%	-13.58	4-6
2011-11-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-13	1398.15	1633.05	25.38%	74.39%	-8.02	4-7
2011-12-04	@ Chicago Bears	W 10-3	1390.13	1598.99	18.46%	81.30%	+33.91	5-7
2011-12-11	@ New York Jets	L 10-37	1424.04	1570.55	24.48%	75.29%	-20.08	5-8
2011-12-18	Green Bay Packers	W 19-14	1403.96	1780.17	13.10%	86.66%	+30.54	6-8
2011-12-24	Oakland Raiders	L 13-16	1434.50	1457.90	53.47%	46.30%	-14.60	6-9
2012-01-01	@ Denver Broncos	W 7-3	1419.90	1432.28	41.23%	58.53%	+18.46	7-9
2011-09-12	New England Patriots	L 24-38	1484.31	1589.57	41.77%	58.00%	-24.65	0-1
2011-09-18	Houston Texans	L 13-23	1459.66	1524.17	47.56%	52.20%	-23.72	0-2
2011-09-25	@ Cleveland Browns	L 16-17	1435.94	1461.13	39.46%	60.31%	-6.22	0-3
2011-10-02	@ San Diego Chargers	L 16-26	1429.72	1545.49	27.90%	71.87%	-13.93	0-4
2011-10-17	@ New York Jets	L 6-24	1415.79	1526.37	28.50%	71.26%	-19.08	0-5
2011-10-23	Denver Broncos	L 15-18	1396.71	1389.84	57.76%	42.00%	-15.77	0-6
2011-10-30	@ New York Giants	L 17-20	1380.94	1529.17	24.30%	75.47%	-6.65	0-7
2011-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-3	1374.29	1497.52	27.04%	72.72%	+60.65	1-7
2011-11-13	Washington Redskins	W 20-9	1434.94	1401.50	61.44%	38.33%	+20.06	2-7
2011-11-20	Buffalo Bills	W 35-8	1455.00	1467.26	55.06%	44.71%	+36.63	3-7
2011-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 19-20	1491.63	1545.40	35.60%	64.16%	-5.62	3-8
2011-12-04	Oakland Raiders	W 34-14	1486.01	1508.64	53.58%	46.19%	+32.58	4-8
2011-12-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-26	1518.59	1466.42	63.95%	35.82%	-40.32	4-9
2011-12-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 30-23	1478.27	1379.56	57.08%	42.69%	+17.81	5-9
2011-12-24	@ New England Patriots	L 24-27	1496.08	1724.79	16.80%	82.96%	-4.59	5-10
2012-01-01	New York Jets	W 19-17	1491.49	1504.79	54.91%	44.85%	+10.00	6-10
2011-09-11	@ San Diego Chargers	L 17-24	1482.88	1545.38	34.46%	65.31%	-14.38	0-1
2011-09-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-24	1468.50	1486.80	54.20%	45.57%	-17.09	0-2
2011-09-25	Detroit Lions	L 23-26	1451.41	1535.78	44.72%	55.05%	-12.22	0-3
2011-10-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-22	1439.19	1385.44	50.66%	49.11%	-17.86	0-4
2011-10-09	Arizona Cardinals	W 34-10	1421.33	1403.25	59.33%	40.44%	+31.25	1-4
2011-10-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-39	1452.58	1502.66	36.09%	63.67%	-30.66	1-5
2011-10-23	Green Bay Packers	L 27-33	1421.92	1709.40	20.08%	79.68%	-7.77	1-6
2011-10-30	@ Carolina Panthers	W 24-21	1414.15	1404.79	44.29%	55.47%	+15.15	2-6
2011-11-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-45	1429.30	1730.55	11.74%	88.03%	-11.43	2-7
2011-11-20	Oakland Raiders	L 21-27	1417.87	1467.61	49.69%	50.08%	-19.19	2-8
2011-11-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-24	1398.68	1574.82	21.47%	78.30%	-10.72	2-9
2011-12-04	Denver Broncos	L 32-35	1387.96	1472.49	44.70%	55.07%	-12.21	2-10
2011-12-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 28-34	1375.75	1515.63	25.19%	74.57%	-9.74	2-11
2011-12-18	New Orleans Saints	L 20-42	1366.01	1656.69	19.79%	79.98%	-14.66	2-12
2011-12-24	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-26	1351.35	1410.64	34.88%	64.89%	+27.06	3-12
2012-01-01	Chicago Bears	L 13-17	1378.41	1488.88	41.04%	58.72%	-12.95	3-13
2011-09-12	@ Miami Dolphins	W 38-24	1589.57	1484.31	58.00%	41.77%	+24.66	1-0
2011-09-18	San Diego Chargers	W 35-21	1614.23	1559.76	64.26%	35.51%	+20.96	2-0
2011-09-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 31-34	1635.19	1514.13	60.19%	39.58%	-16.43	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-19	1618.76	1530.66	55.57%	44.19%	+24.14	3-1
2011-10-09	New York Jets	W 30-21	1642.90	1540.31	70.32%	29.45%	+13.94	4-1
2011-10-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 20-16	1656.84	1498.10	76.56%	23.20%	+7.33	5-1
2011-10-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-25	1664.17	1604.84	51.46%	48.31%	-22.95	5-2
2011-11-06	New York Giants	L 20-24	1641.22	1535.81	70.65%	29.11%	-22.27	5-3
2011-11-13	@ New York Jets	W 37-16	1618.95	1597.68	45.99%	53.77%	+38.85	6-3
2011-11-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 34-3	1657.80	1411.73	84.31%	15.45%	+13.59	7-3
2011-11-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-20	1671.39	1526.81	63.38%	36.39%	+24.35	8-3
2011-12-04	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-24	1695.74	1284.27	93.18%	6.59%	+2.76	9-3
2011-12-11	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-27	1698.50	1375.71	82.75%	17.02%	+7.11	10-3
2011-12-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 41-23	1705.61	1499.57	71.11%	28.65%	+19.18	11-3
2011-12-24	Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1724.79	1496.08	82.96%	16.80%	+4.60	12-3
2012-01-01	Buffalo Bills	W 49-21	1729.39	1409.85	89.07%	10.69%	+8.94	13-3
2011-09-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 34-42	1541.50	1629.03	31.28%	68.49%	-13.97	0-1
2011-09-18	Chicago Bears	W 30-13	1527.53	1562.72	51.78%	47.99%	+31.20	1-1
2011-09-25	Houston Texans	W 40-33	1558.73	1547.89	58.32%	41.45%	+17.30	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-10	1576.03	1432.10	63.29%	36.48%	+20.75	3-1
2011-10-09	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-27	1596.78	1396.19	70.47%	29.30%	+8.01	4-1
2011-10-16	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-26	1604.79	1483.17	60.27%	39.50%	-23.27	4-2
2011-10-23	Indianapolis Colts	W 62-7	1581.52	1404.74	78.36%	21.40%	+25.06	5-2
2011-10-30	@ St. Louis Rams	L 21-31	1606.58	1325.37	79.10%	20.67%	-39.42	5-3
2011-11-06	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-16	1567.16	1488.66	67.36%	32.41%	+16.96	6-3
2011-11-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-23	1584.12	1576.48	44.05%	55.72%	+15.21	7-3
2011-11-28	New York Giants	W 49-24	1599.33	1517.06	67.83%	31.94%	+25.20	8-3
2011-12-04	Detroit Lions	W 31-17	1624.53	1533.88	68.87%	30.90%	+18.24	9-3
2011-12-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 22-17	1642.77	1520.83	60.31%	39.46%	+13.92	10-3
2011-12-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 42-20	1656.69	1366.01	79.98%	19.79%	+14.65	11-3
2011-12-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 45-16	1671.34	1602.44	66.13%	33.63%	+28.58	12-3
2012-01-01	Carolina Panthers	W 45-17	1699.92	1468.37	83.19%	16.58%	+13.85	13-3
2011-09-11	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-28	1522.33	1451.59	53.10%	46.67%	-31.32	0-1
2011-09-19	St. Louis Rams	W 28-16	1491.01	1415.50	66.98%	32.79%	+17.92	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 29-16	1508.93	1548.64	37.48%	62.29%	+35.40	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-27	1544.33	1415.40	61.27%	38.50%	+12.15	3-1
2011-10-09	Seattle Seahawks	L 25-36	1556.48	1403.98	75.92%	23.85%	-39.69	3-2
2011-10-16	Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1516.79	1533.35	54.45%	45.32%	+12.38	4-2
2011-10-30	Miami Dolphins	W 20-17	1529.17	1380.94	75.47%	24.30%	+6.64	5-2
2011-11-06	@ New England Patriots	W 24-20	1535.81	1641.22	29.11%	70.65%	+22.27	6-2
2011-11-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-27	1558.08	1611.26	35.68%	64.09%	-14.89	6-3
2011-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-17	1543.19	1500.68	62.66%	37.10%	-26.13	6-4
2011-11-28	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-49	1517.06	1599.33	31.94%	67.83%	-25.20	6-5
2011-12-04	Green Bay Packers	L 35-38	1491.86	1763.71	21.57%	78.20%	-5.90	6-6
2011-12-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 37-34	1485.96	1526.07	37.43%	62.34%	+17.02	7-6
2011-12-18	Washington Redskins	L 10-23	1502.98	1368.60	73.97%	25.79%	-42.03	7-7
2011-12-24	@ New York Jets	W 29-14	1460.95	1546.44	31.53%	68.23%	+41.65	8-7
2012-01-01	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-14	1502.60	1499.29	57.26%	42.50%	+27.64	9-7
2011-09-11	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-24	1556.96	1499.08	64.70%	35.06%	+9.58	1-0
2011-09-18	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 32-3	1566.54	1478.93	68.50%	31.27%	+26.58	2-0
2011-09-25	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-34	1593.12	1502.80	55.89%	43.88%	-27.86	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-34	1565.26	1598.56	38.35%	61.42%	-24.95	2-2
2011-10-09	@ New England Patriots	L 21-30	1540.31	1642.90	29.45%	70.32%	-13.94	2-3
2011-10-17	Miami Dolphins	W 24-6	1526.37	1415.79	71.26%	28.50%	+19.09	3-3
2011-10-23	San Diego Chargers	W 27-21	1545.46	1571.66	53.07%	46.70%	+18.03	4-3
2011-11-06	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-11	1563.49	1545.25	45.56%	54.21%	+34.19	5-3
2011-11-13	New England Patriots	L 16-37	1597.68	1618.95	53.77%	45.99%	-38.85	5-4
2011-11-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-17	1558.83	1436.98	60.30%	39.47%	-19.01	5-5
2011-11-27	Buffalo Bills	W 28-24	1539.82	1430.62	71.10%	28.66%	+9.05	6-5
2011-12-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 34-19	1548.87	1397.39	64.29%	35.48%	+21.68	7-5
2011-12-11	Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-10	1570.55	1424.04	75.29%	24.48%	+20.08	8-5
2011-12-18	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 19-45	1590.63	1506.74	54.98%	44.79%	-44.19	8-6
2011-12-24	New York Giants	L 14-29	1546.44	1460.95	68.23%	31.53%	-41.65	8-7
2012-01-01	@ Miami Dolphins	L 17-19	1504.79	1491.49	44.85%	54.91%	-10.01	8-8
2011-09-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-20	1502.66	1422.56	54.44%	45.33%	+12.38	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 35-38	1515.04	1501.88	44.83%	54.93%	-12.24	1-1
2011-09-25	New York Jets	W 34-24	1502.80	1593.12	43.88%	55.89%	+27.86	2-1
2011-10-02	New England Patriots	L 19-31	1530.66	1618.76	44.19%	55.57%	-24.15	2-2
2011-10-09	@ Houston Texans	W 25-20	1506.51	1551.08	36.83%	62.94%	+22.19	3-2
2011-10-16	Cleveland Browns	W 24-17	1528.70	1433.98	69.37%	30.40%	+12.69	4-2
2011-10-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-28	1541.39	1422.83	72.19%	27.58%	-60.21	4-3
2011-11-06	Denver Broncos	L 24-38	1481.18	1369.75	71.36%	28.40%	-42.08	4-4
2011-11-10	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-17	1439.10	1525.74	31.39%	68.37%	+28.51	5-4
2011-11-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 27-21	1467.61	1417.87	50.08%	49.69%	+19.19	6-4
2011-11-27	Chicago Bears	W 25-20	1486.80	1620.82	37.81%	61.96%	+21.84	7-4
2011-12-04	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-34	1508.64	1486.01	46.19%	53.58%	-32.57	7-5
2011-12-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-46	1476.07	1769.61	12.21%	87.56%	-10.57	7-6
2011-12-18	Detroit Lions	L 27-28	1465.50	1525.37	48.23%	51.54%	-7.60	7-7
2011-12-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1457.90	1434.50	46.30%	53.47%	+14.60	8-7
2012-01-01	San Diego Chargers	L 26-38	1472.50	1530.39	48.51%	51.25%	-26.50	8-8
2011-09-11	@ St. Louis Rams	W 31-13	1534.89	1444.89	55.84%	43.92%	+29.39	1-0
2011-09-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 31-35	1564.28	1518.05	49.57%	50.19%	-15.64	1-1
2011-09-25	New York Giants	L 16-29	1548.64	1508.93	62.29%	37.48%	-35.39	1-2
2011-10-02	San Francisco 49ers	L 23-24	1513.25	1504.91	57.97%	41.80%	-9.14	1-3
2011-10-09	@ Buffalo Bills	L 24-31	1504.11	1516.12	41.28%	58.48%	-17.23	1-4
2011-10-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 20-13	1486.88	1496.71	41.59%	58.18%	+24.26	2-4
2011-10-30	Dallas Cowboys	W 34-7	1511.14	1510.97	56.82%	42.94%	+35.20	3-4
2011-11-07	Chicago Bears	L 24-30	1546.34	1551.10	56.12%	43.64%	-21.67	3-5
2011-11-13	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-21	1524.67	1370.34	76.11%	23.66%	-23.99	3-6
2011-11-20	@ New York Giants	W 17-10	1500.68	1543.19	37.10%	62.66%	+26.13	4-6
2011-11-27	New England Patriots	L 20-38	1526.81	1671.39	36.39%	63.38%	-24.36	4-7
2011-12-01	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 14-31	1502.45	1415.33	55.44%	44.33%	-36.03	4-8
2011-12-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 26-10	1466.42	1518.59	35.82%	63.95%	+40.32	5-8
2011-12-18	New York Jets	W 45-19	1506.74	1590.63	44.79%	54.98%	+44.19	6-8
2011-12-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-7	1550.93	1529.88	45.96%	53.81%	+30.58	7-8
2012-01-01	Washington Redskins	W 34-10	1581.51	1383.58	80.34%	19.43%	+15.03	8-8
2011-09-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-35	1577.38	1568.54	44.22%	55.55%	-36.90	0-1
2011-09-18	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-0	1540.48	1421.71	72.22%	27.55%	+21.30	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 23-20	1561.78	1466.64	56.57%	43.20%	+11.80	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Houston Texans	L 10-17	1573.58	1530.59	49.11%	50.66%	-20.48	2-2
2011-10-09	Tennessee Titans	W 38-17	1553.10	1549.05	57.37%	42.40%	+30.64	3-2
2011-10-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-13	1583.74	1387.63	80.18%	19.59%	+6.19	4-2
2011-10-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 32-20	1589.93	1372.00	72.49%	27.28%	+14.91	5-2
2011-10-30	New England Patriots	W 25-17	1604.84	1664.17	48.31%	51.46%	+22.95	6-2
2011-11-06	Baltimore Ravens	L 20-23	1627.79	1618.91	58.05%	41.72%	-15.85	6-3
2011-11-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-17	1611.94	1568.65	49.15%	50.61%	+21.11	7-3
2011-11-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 13-9	1633.05	1398.15	74.39%	25.38%	+8.02	8-3
2011-12-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-7	1641.07	1540.45	70.08%	29.69%	+24.79	9-3
2011-12-08	Cleveland Browns	W 14-3	1665.86	1388.69	86.51%	13.25%	+6.94	10-3
2011-12-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-20	1672.80	1607.87	52.26%	47.50%	-33.97	10-4
2011-12-24	St. Louis Rams	W 27-0	1638.83	1275.94	91.23%	8.53%	+7.00	11-4
2012-01-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 13-9	1645.83	1366.18	78.95%	20.82%	+6.57	12-4
2011-09-11	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-17	1545.38	1482.88	65.31%	34.46%	+14.38	1-0
2011-09-18	@ New England Patriots	L 21-35	1559.76	1614.23	35.51%	64.26%	-20.96	1-1
2011-09-25	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-17	1538.80	1392.13	75.30%	24.46%	+6.69	2-1
2011-10-02	Miami Dolphins	W 26-16	1545.49	1429.72	71.87%	27.90%	+13.92	3-1
2011-10-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 29-24	1559.41	1402.09	65.06%	34.71%	+12.25	4-1
2011-10-23	@ New York Jets	L 21-27	1571.66	1545.46	46.70%	53.07%	-18.04	4-2
2011-10-31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1553.62	1483.03	53.08%	46.69%	-14.49	4-3
2011-11-06	Green Bay Packers	L 38-45	1539.13	1717.17	32.06%	67.71%	-13.39	4-4
2011-11-10	Oakland Raiders	L 17-24	1525.74	1439.10	68.37%	31.39%	-28.51	4-5
2011-11-20	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-31	1497.23	1605.78	28.74%	71.02%	-15.04	4-6
2011-11-27	Denver Broncos	L 13-16	1482.19	1455.99	60.45%	39.32%	-16.51	4-7
2011-12-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 38-14	1465.68	1398.76	52.55%	47.22%	+36.48	5-7
2011-12-11	Buffalo Bills	W 37-10	1502.16	1404.16	69.77%	30.00%	+24.60	6-7
2011-12-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 34-14	1526.76	1664.03	37.37%	62.40%	+43.98	7-7
2011-12-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-38	1570.74	1532.98	48.36%	51.41%	-40.35	7-8
2012-01-01	@ Oakland Raiders	W 38-26	1530.39	1472.50	51.25%	48.51%	+26.50	8-8
2011-09-11	Seattle Seahawks	W 33-17	1476.59	1446.15	61.03%	38.74%	+24.45	1-0
2011-09-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1501.04	1489.50	58.42%	41.35%	-15.95	1-1
2011-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 13-8	1485.09	1481.15	43.53%	56.24%	+19.82	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1504.91	1513.25	41.80%	57.97%	+9.14	3-1
2011-10-09	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-3	1514.05	1531.20	54.36%	45.40%	+48.03	4-1
2011-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 25-19	1562.08	1583.83	39.93%	59.83%	+23.10	5-1
2011-10-30	Cleveland Browns	W 20-10	1585.18	1433.89	75.79%	23.98%	+11.97	6-1
2011-11-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-11	1597.15	1415.61	68.15%	31.62%	+14.11	7-1
2011-11-13	New York Giants	W 27-20	1611.26	1558.08	64.09%	35.68%	+14.90	8-1
2011-11-20	Arizona Cardinals	W 23-7	1626.16	1394.33	83.21%	16.55%	+10.45	9-1
2011-11-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-16	1636.61	1622.37	44.99%	54.78%	-22.43	9-2
2011-12-04	St. Louis Rams	W 26-0	1614.18	1312.34	88.06%	11.71%	+9.42	10-2
2011-12-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 19-21	1623.60	1422.05	70.58%	29.18%	-15.73	10-3
2011-12-19	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-3	1607.87	1672.80	47.50%	52.26%	+33.98	11-3
2011-12-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 19-17	1641.85	1519.60	60.35%	39.41%	+8.79	12-3
2012-01-01	@ St. Louis Rams	W 34-27	1650.64	1268.94	87.02%	12.75%	+5.33	13-3
2011-09-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-33	1446.15	1476.59	38.74%	61.03%	-24.44	0-1
2011-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-24	1421.71	1540.48	27.55%	72.22%	-21.31	0-2
2011-09-25	Arizona Cardinals	W 13-10	1400.40	1428.22	52.84%	46.93%	+12.82	1-2
2011-10-02	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1413.22	1520.79	41.45%	58.32%	-9.24	1-3
2011-10-09	@ New York Giants	W 36-25	1403.98	1556.48	23.85%	75.92%	+39.68	2-3
2011-10-23	@ Cleveland Browns	L 3-6	1443.66	1421.29	46.15%	53.62%	-12.60	2-4
2011-10-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 12-34	1431.06	1515.66	44.69%	55.08%	-33.06	2-5
2011-11-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 13-23	1398.00	1475.77	32.50%	67.27%	-16.22	2-6
2011-11-13	Baltimore Ravens	W 22-17	1381.78	1634.76	23.46%	76.31%	+26.89	3-6
2011-11-20	@ St. Louis Rams	W 24-7	1408.67	1357.76	50.25%	49.52%	+32.19	4-6
2011-11-27	Washington Redskins	L 17-23	1440.86	1371.85	66.15%	33.62%	-25.53	4-7
2011-12-01	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-14	1415.33	1502.45	44.33%	55.44%	+36.03	5-7
2011-12-12	St. Louis Rams	W 30-13	1451.36	1302.91	75.49%	24.28%	+15.80	6-7
2011-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-14	1467.16	1550.21	31.84%	67.93%	+52.44	7-7
2011-12-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-19	1519.60	1641.85	39.41%	60.35%	-8.79	7-8
2012-01-01	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-23	1510.81	1433.63	54.02%	45.75%	-14.75	7-9
2011-09-11	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-31	1444.89	1534.89	43.92%	55.84%	-29.39	0-1
2011-09-19	@ New York Giants	L 16-28	1415.50	1491.01	32.79%	66.98%	-17.92	0-2
2011-09-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 7-37	1397.58	1570.27	32.73%	67.03%	-28.29	0-3
2011-10-02	Washington Redskins	L 10-17	1369.29	1479.57	41.07%	58.70%	-17.14	0-4
2011-10-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 3-24	1352.15	1702.81	9.10%	90.67%	-6.59	0-5
2011-10-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-34	1345.56	1490.78	24.62%	75.15%	-20.19	0-6
2011-10-30	New Orleans Saints	W 31-21	1325.37	1606.58	20.67%	79.10%	+39.42	1-6
2011-11-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-19	1364.79	1353.10	44.63%	55.14%	-17.24	1-7
2011-11-13	@ Cleveland Browns	W 13-12	1347.55	1406.02	34.99%	64.78%	+10.21	2-7
2011-11-20	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-24	1357.76	1408.67	49.52%	50.25%	-32.19	2-8
2011-11-27	Arizona Cardinals	L 20-23	1325.57	1383.87	48.45%	51.31%	-13.23	2-9
2011-12-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-26	1312.34	1614.18	11.71%	88.06%	-9.43	2-10
2011-12-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-30	1302.91	1451.36	24.28%	75.49%	-15.80	2-11
2011-12-18	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-20	1287.11	1509.73	26.74%	73.02%	-11.17	2-12
2011-12-24	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 0-27	1275.94	1638.83	8.53%	91.23%	-7.00	2-13
2012-01-01	San Francisco 49ers	L 27-34	1268.94	1650.64	12.75%	87.02%	-5.33	2-14
2011-09-11	Detroit Lions	L 20-27	1512.66	1474.98	62.01%	37.75%	-25.86	0-1
2011-09-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-20	1486.80	1468.50	45.57%	54.20%	+17.09	1-1
2011-09-25	Atlanta Falcons	W 16-13	1503.89	1533.68	52.55%	47.21%	+12.89	2-1
2011-10-03	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-17	1516.78	1454.84	65.23%	34.53%	+14.42	3-1
2011-10-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-48	1531.20	1514.05	45.40%	54.36%	-48.03	3-2
2011-10-16	New Orleans Saints	W 26-20	1483.17	1604.79	39.50%	60.27%	+23.26	4-2
2011-10-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 18-24	1506.43	1533.32	46.02%	53.74%	-17.77	4-3
2011-11-06	@ New Orleans Saints	L 16-27	1488.66	1567.16	32.41%	67.36%	-16.97	4-4
2011-11-13	Houston Texans	L 9-37	1471.69	1591.24	39.79%	59.98%	-33.20	4-5
2011-11-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 26-35	1438.49	1741.98	11.61%	88.16%	-5.50	4-6
2011-11-27	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-23	1432.99	1489.81	35.20%	64.57%	-13.61	4-7
2011-12-04	Carolina Panthers	L 19-38	1419.38	1363.17	64.48%	35.28%	-44.30	4-8
2011-12-11	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-41	1375.08	1362.28	44.78%	54.98%	-36.70	4-9
2011-12-17	Dallas Cowboys	L 15-31	1338.38	1509.06	32.99%	66.78%	-20.82	4-10
2011-12-24	@ Carolina Panthers	L 16-48	1317.56	1444.61	26.61%	73.16%	-23.76	4-11
2012-01-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-45	1293.80	1573.86	13.06%	86.70%	-9.45	4-12
2011-09-11	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 14-16	1481.84	1468.94	44.80%	54.97%	-9.99	0-1
2011-09-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 26-13	1471.85	1605.44	37.87%	61.90%	+35.18	1-1
2011-09-25	Denver Broncos	W 17-14	1507.03	1422.41	68.12%	31.64%	+8.65	2-1
2011-10-02	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-13	1515.68	1467.35	49.88%	49.89%	+33.37	3-1
2011-10-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-38	1549.05	1553.10	42.40%	57.37%	-30.65	3-2
2011-10-23	Houston Texans	L 7-41	1518.40	1510.31	57.94%	41.83%	-53.24	3-3
2011-10-30	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-10	1465.16	1379.68	68.23%	31.54%	+20.51	4-3
2011-11-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-24	1485.67	1548.72	47.77%	51.99%	-19.93	4-4
2011-11-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 30-3	1465.74	1389.64	53.86%	45.90%	+37.62	5-4
2011-11-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 17-23	1503.36	1561.27	35.06%	64.71%	-13.55	5-5
2011-11-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-17	1489.81	1432.99	64.57%	35.20%	+13.60	6-5
2011-12-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-17	1503.41	1421.57	54.68%	45.08%	+17.42	7-5
2011-12-11	New Orleans Saints	L 17-22	1520.83	1642.77	39.46%	60.31%	-13.92	7-6
2011-12-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-27	1506.91	1276.85	73.85%	25.91%	-43.55	7-7
2011-12-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1463.36	1382.19	67.69%	32.07%	+12.40	8-7
2012-01-01	@ Houston Texans	W 23-22	1475.76	1583.03	28.89%	70.88%	+3.72	9-7
2011-09-11	New York Giants	W 28-14	1451.59	1522.33	46.67%	53.10%	+31.32	1-0
2011-09-18	Arizona Cardinals	W 22-21	1482.91	1433.94	63.53%	36.24%	+5.72	2-0
2011-09-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-18	1488.63	1505.44	40.62%	59.15%	-9.06	2-1
2011-10-02	@ St. Louis Rams	W 17-10	1479.57	1369.29	58.70%	41.07%	+17.14	3-1
2011-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-20	1496.71	1486.88	58.18%	41.59%	-24.26	3-2
2011-10-23	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-33	1472.45	1372.23	57.29%	42.48%	-32.56	3-3
2011-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-23	1439.89	1520.97	32.09%	67.68%	-24.28	3-4
2011-11-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 11-19	1415.61	1597.15	31.62%	68.15%	-14.11	3-5
2011-11-13	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-20	1401.50	1434.94	38.33%	61.44%	-20.06	3-6
2011-11-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1381.44	1535.81	35.10%	64.67%	-9.59	3-7
2011-11-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 23-17	1371.85	1440.86	33.62%	66.15%	+25.54	4-7
2011-12-04	New York Jets	L 19-34	1397.39	1548.87	35.48%	64.29%	-21.68	4-8
2011-12-11	New England Patriots	L 27-34	1375.71	1698.50	17.02%	82.75%	-7.11	4-9
2011-12-18	@ New York Giants	W 23-10	1368.60	1502.98	25.79%	73.97%	+42.04	5-9
2011-12-24	Minnesota Vikings	L 26-33	1410.64	1351.35	64.89%	34.88%	-27.06	5-10
2012-01-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-34	1383.58	1581.51	19.43%	80.34%	-15.03	5-11

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2012-01-08	@ New York Giants	L 2-24	1583.32	1530.24	50.68%	49.32%	-37.39	0-1
2012-01-15	Houston Texans	W 20-13	1645.48	1604.07	62.64%	37.36%	+15.55	1-0
2012-01-22	@ New England Patriots	L 20-23	1661.03	1749.61	31.25%	68.75%	-8.51	1-1
2012-01-07	@ Houston Texans	L 10-31	1515.18	1579.31	34.35%	65.65%	-24.76	0-1
2012-01-08	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 29-23	1413.83	1652.40	25.07%	74.93%	+28.87	1-0
2012-01-14	@ New England Patriots	L 10-45	1442.70	1738.33	12.13%	87.87%	-11.29	1-1
2012-01-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 28-45	1571.16	1713.77	24.99%	75.01%	-16.21	0-1
2012-01-15	New York Giants	L 20-37	1760.67	1567.63	80.05%	19.95%	-51.92	0-1
2012-01-07	Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-10	1579.31	1515.18	65.65%	34.35%	+24.76	1-0
2012-01-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-20	1604.07	1645.48	37.36%	62.64%	-15.54	1-1
2012-01-14	Denver Broncos	W 45-10	1738.33	1442.70	87.87%	12.13%	+11.28	1-0
2012-01-22	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1749.61	1661.03	68.75%	31.25%	+8.52	2-0
2012-02-05	@ New York Giants	L 17-21	1758.13	1637.05	66.75%	33.25%	-21.00	2-1
2012-01-07	Detroit Lions	W 45-28	1713.77	1571.16	75.01%	24.99%	+16.21	1-0
2012-01-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 32-36	1729.98	1655.97	53.68%	46.32%	-16.89	1-1
2012-01-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-2	1530.24	1583.32	49.32%	50.68%	+37.39	1-0
2012-01-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 37-20	1567.63	1760.67	19.95%	80.05%	+51.92	2-0
2012-01-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-17	1619.55	1672.85	35.77%	64.23%	+17.50	3-0
2012-02-05	New England Patriots	W 21-17	1637.05	1758.13	33.25%	66.75%	+21.00	4-0
2012-01-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-29	1652.40	1413.83	74.93%	25.07%	-28.87	0-1
2012-01-14	New Orleans Saints	W 36-32	1655.97	1729.98	46.32%	53.68%	+16.88	1-0
2012-01-22	New York Giants	L 17-20	1672.85	1619.55	64.23%	35.77%	-17.50	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2011-12-18	13.10%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1403.96	19	Green Bay Packers	1780.17	14
2	2011-12-18	14.10%	Carolina Panthers	1392.31	28	@ Houston Texans	1657.00	13
3	2011-12-04	18.46%	Kansas City Chiefs	1390.13	10	@ Chicago Bears	1598.99	3
4	2012-01-15 *	19.95%	New York Giants	1567.63	37	@ Green Bay Packers	1760.67	20
5	2011-12-22	20.38%	@ Indianapolis Colts	1320.40	19	Houston Texans	1604.71	16
6	2011-10-30	20.67%	@ St. Louis Rams	1325.37	31	New Orleans Saints	1606.58	21
7	2011-10-24	22.68%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1381.44	12	Baltimore Ravens	1642.09	7
8	2011-11-13	23.46%	@ Seattle Seahawks	1381.78	22	Baltimore Ravens	1634.76	17
9	2011-11-13	23.66%	Arizona Cardinals	1370.34	21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1524.67	17
10	2011-10-09	23.85%	Seattle Seahawks	1403.98	36	@ New York Giants	1556.48	25
11	2012-01-08 *	25.07%	@ Denver Broncos	1413.83	29	Pittsburgh Steelers	1652.40	23
12	2011-12-18	25.79%	Washington Redskins	1368.60	23	@ New York Giants	1502.98	10
13	2011-12-18	25.91%	@ Indianapolis Colts	1276.85	27	Tennessee Titans	1506.91	13
14	2011-11-06	27.04%	Miami Dolphins	1374.29	31	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1497.52	3
15	2011-10-23	27.58%	Kansas City Chiefs	1422.83	28	@ Oakland Raiders	1541.39	0
16	2011-11-06	28.40%	Denver Broncos	1369.75	38	@ Oakland Raiders	1481.18	24
17	2012-01-01	28.89%	Tennessee Titans	1475.76	23	@ Houston Texans	1583.03	22
18	2011-11-06	29.11%	New York Giants	1535.81	24	@ New England Patriots	1641.22	20
19	2011-12-11	29.18%	@ Arizona Cardinals	1422.05	21	San Francisco 49ers	1623.60	19
20	2011-11-10	31.39%	Oakland Raiders	1439.10	24	@ San Diego Chargers	1525.74	17
21	2011-12-24	31.53%	New York Giants	1460.95	29	@ New York Jets	1546.44	14
22	2011-12-18	31.84%	Seattle Seahawks	1467.16	38	@ Chicago Bears	1550.21	14
23	2012-02-05 *	33.25%	@ New York Giants	1637.05	21	New England Patriots	1758.13	17
24	2011-11-27	33.62%	Washington Redskins	1371.85	23	@ Seattle Seahawks	1440.86	17
25	2011-09-18	34.28%	Cleveland Browns	1431.94	27	@ Indianapolis Colts	1495.84	19

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2011-11-06	60.65	Miami Dolphins	31	1374.29	27.04%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	3	1497.52	72.72%
2	2011-10-23	60.21	Kansas City Chiefs	28	1422.83	27.58%	@ Oakland Raiders	0	1541.39	72.19%
3	2011-09-11	57.24	Buffalo Bills	41	1444.65	37.49%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	7	1484.31	62.28%
4	2011-10-23	53.25	Houston Texans	41	1510.31	41.83%	@ Tennessee Titans	7	1518.40	57.94%
5	2011-12-18	52.45	Seattle Seahawks	38	1467.16	31.84%	@ Chicago Bears	14	1550.21	67.93%
6	2011-12-18	52.30	Carolina Panthers	28	1392.31	14.10%	@ Houston Texans	13	1657.00	85.66%
7	2012-01-15 *	51.92	New York Giants	37	1567.63	19.95%	@ Green Bay Packers	20	1760.67	80.05%
8	2011-12-24	48.11	@ Buffalo Bills	40	1361.74	39.91%	Denver Broncos	14	1480.39	59.86%
9	2011-10-09	48.03	@ San Francisco 49ers	48	1514.05	54.36%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	1531.20	45.40%
10	2011-12-04	44.30	Carolina Panthers	38	1363.17	35.28%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	19	1419.38	64.48%
11	2011-12-18	44.19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	45	1506.74	44.79%	New York Jets	19	1590.63	54.98%
12	2011-12-18	43.98	@ San Diego Chargers	34	1526.76	37.37%	Baltimore Ravens	14	1664.03	62.40%
13	2011-11-13	43.82	@ Dallas Cowboys	44	1491.99	54.09%	Buffalo Bills	7	1511.07	45.68%
14	2011-12-18	43.55	@ Indianapolis Colts	27	1276.85	25.91%	Tennessee Titans	13	1506.91	73.85%
15	2011-11-06	42.09	Denver Broncos	38	1369.75	28.40%	@ Oakland Raiders	24	1481.18	71.36%
16	2011-12-18	42.04	Washington Redskins	23	1368.60	25.79%	@ New York Giants	10	1502.98	73.97%
17	2011-12-24	41.65	New York Giants	29	1460.95	31.53%	@ New York Jets	14	1546.44	68.23%
18	2011-09-11	41.64	@ Houston Texans	34	1482.53	48.94%	Indianapolis Colts	7	1537.48	50.83%
19	2011-12-24	40.35	@ Detroit Lions	38	1532.98	51.41%	San Diego Chargers	10	1570.74	48.36%
20	2011-12-11	40.32	Philadelphia Eagles	26	1466.42	35.82%	@ Miami Dolphins	10	1518.59	63.95%
21	2011-10-09	39.69	Seattle Seahawks	36	1403.98	23.85%	@ New York Giants	25	1556.48	75.92%
22	2011-10-30	39.42	@ St. Louis Rams	31	1325.37	20.67%	New Orleans Saints	21	1606.58	79.10%
23	2011-11-13	38.85	New England Patriots	37	1618.95	45.99%	@ New York Jets	16	1597.68	53.77%
24	2011-11-13	37.62	Tennessee Titans	30	1465.74	53.86%	@ Carolina Panthers	3	1389.64	45.90%
25	2012-01-08 *	37.39	@ New York Giants	24	1530.24	49.32%	Atlanta Falcons	2	1583.32	50.68%