2012 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Baltimore Ravens

2nd Super Bowl

Last Title: 2000

Runner-Up

San Francisco 49ers

6th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1994

Biggest Overachiever

Indianapolis Colts

3.73 wins above expected

11 wins · 7.27 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Detroit Lions

3.08 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.08 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	12	4	.750	—	557	331	+226	11.67	+0.33
2	Miami Dolphins	7	9	.438	5	288	317	-29	7.54	-0.54
3	New York Jets	6	10	.375	6	281	375	-94	7.46	-1.46
4	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	6	344	435	-91	6.73	-0.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Baltimore Ravens Division	10	6	.625	—	398	344	+54	9.86	+0.14
2	Cincinnati Bengals Playoffs	10	6	.625	—	391	320	+71	8.95	+1.05
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	8	.500	2	336	314	+22	9.28	-1.28
4	Cleveland Browns	5	11	.312	5	302	368	-66	5.89	-0.89

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	12	4	.750	—	416	331	+85	10.89	+1.11
2	Indianapolis Colts Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	357	387	-30	7.27	+3.73
3	Tennessee Titans	6	10	.375	6	330	471	-141	6.19	-0.19
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	14	.125	10	255	444	-189	4.77	-2.77

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	13	3	.812	—	481	289	+192	9.78	+3.22
2	San Diego Chargers	7	9	.438	6	350	350	0	8.44	-1.44
3	Oakland Raiders	4	12	.250	9	290	443	-153	5.93	-1.93
4	Kansas City Chiefs	2	14	.125	11	211	425	-214	4.75	-2.75

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	10	6	.625	—	436	388	+48	7.30	+2.70
2	New York Giants	9	7	.562	1	429	344	+85	10.13	-1.13
3	Dallas Cowboys	8	8	.500	2	376	400	-24	7.40	+0.60
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	12	.250	6	280	444	-164	6.69	-2.69

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	11	5	.688	—	433	336	+97	10.30	+0.70
2	Minnesota Vikings Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	379	348	+31	7.24	+2.76
3	Chicago Bears	10	6	.625	1	375	277	+98	9.90	+0.10
4	Detroit Lions	4	12	.250	7	372	437	-65	7.08	-3.08

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	13	3	.812	—	419	299	+120	11.26	+1.74
2	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	6	461	454	+7	8.33	-1.33
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	7	9	.438	6	389	394	-5	7.10	-0.10
4	Carolina Panthers	7	9	.438	6	357	363	-6	6.63	+0.37

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	San Francisco 49ers Division	11	4	1	.719	—	397	273	+124	10.42	+1.08
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	11	5	0	.688	0.5	412	245	+167	8.81	+2.19
3	St. Louis Rams	7	8	1	.469	4	299	348	-49	5.35	+2.15
4	Arizona Cardinals	5	11	0	.312	6.5	250	357	-107	6.66	-1.66

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Texans 19

Cincinnati Bengals 13

Jan 5

Baltimore Ravens 24

Indianapolis Colts 9

Jan 6

Divisional Round

Baltimore Ravens 38

Denver Broncos 35

Jan 12

New England Patriots 41

Houston Texans 28

Jan 13

Conference Championship

Baltimore Ravens 28

New England Patriots 13

Jan 20

NFC

Wild Card Round

Green Bay Packers 24

Minnesota Vikings 10

Jan 5

Seattle Seahawks 24

Washington Redskins 14

Jan 6

Divisional Round

San Francisco 49ers 45

Green Bay Packers 31

Jan 12

Atlanta Falcons 30

Seattle Seahawks 28

Jan 13

Conference Championship

San Francisco 49ers 28

Atlanta Falcons 24

Jan 20

Super Bowl

Baltimore Ravens 34

San Francisco 49ers 31

Feb 3

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1764	12	11.67	+0.33	68.28%	5	9	11	12	13	14	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1720	13	9.78	+3.22	98.65%	3	7	9	10	11	13	15
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1695	13	11.26	+1.74	90.64%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1695	11	8.81	+2.19	93.15%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1678	11.5	10.42	+1.08	72.70%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1658	11	10.30	+0.70	74.63%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1617	12	10.89	+1.11	82.36%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1600	10	9.86	+0.14	62.77%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1596	10	8.95	+1.05	79.77%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1592	10	7.24	+2.76	96.24%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1587	9	10.13	-1.13	36.74%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1584	10	7.30	+2.70	95.50%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1559	10	9.90	+0.10	62.23%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1547	7	8.33	-1.33	33.79%	2	5	7	8	10	11	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1531	7	6.63	+0.37	69.50%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1518	8	9.28	-1.28	34.18%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1512	11	7.27	+3.73	99.01%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1473	8	7.40	+0.60	72.85%	2	4	6	7	9	10	16
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1459	7	7.54	-0.54	49.89%	1	5	6	8	9	10	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1459	7	8.44	-1.44	31.25%	2	5	7	8	10	11	15
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1451	7.5	5.35	+2.15	88.42%	0	2	4	5	7	8	12
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1417	6	6.19	-0.19	57.75%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1412	7	7.10	-0.10	59.39%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1399	6	6.73	-0.73	46.73%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1370	5	5.89	-0.89	43.24%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1363	4	7.08	-3.08	8.56%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1361	5	6.66	-1.66	27.16%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1352	6	7.46	-1.46	31.65%	1	4	6	7	9	11	15
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1304	4	5.93	-1.93	22.60%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1292	4	6.69	-2.69	12.09%	0	4	5	7	8	10	14
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1221	2	4.77	-2.77	10.10%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1214	2	4.75	-2.75	9.79%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (2.9 exp.)
New York Jets	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-4 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—	—
Tennessee Titans	3-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (0.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	—
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (2.2 exp.)	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Washington Redskins	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	—	1-3 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Detroit Lions	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (1.7 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-1-1 (1.7 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Indianapolis Colts	11	7.27	+3.73
2	Denver Broncos	13	9.78	+3.22
3	Minnesota Vikings	10	7.24	+2.76
4	Washington Redskins	10	7.30	+2.70
5	Seattle Seahawks	11	8.81	+2.19

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Detroit Lions	4	7.08	-3.08
2	Jacksonville Jaguars	2	4.77	-2.77
3	Kansas City Chiefs	2	4.75	-2.75
4	Philadelphia Eagles	4	6.69	-2.69
5	Oakland Raiders	4	5.93	-1.93

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Washington Redskins	7	Nov 18 – Dec 30	1 in 147
2	Denver Broncos	11	Oct 15 – Dec 30	1 in 75
3	Minnesota Vikings	4	Dec 9 – Dec 30	1 in 68
4	Carolina Panthers	4	Dec 9 – Dec 30	1 in 66
5	St. Louis Rams	3	Nov 25 – Dec 9	1 in 37

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Arizona Cardinals	9	Oct 4 – Dec 9	1 in 237
2	Philadelphia Eagles	8	Oct 7 – Dec 2	1 in 173
3	Detroit Lions	8	Nov 11 – Dec 30	1 in 61
4	New Orleans Saints	4	Sep 9 – Sep 30	1 in 59
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	Nov 25 – Dec 23	1 in 50

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	87.78%	9.76%	2.00%	0.46%
Miami Dolphins	4.76%	35.40%	33.33%	26.51%
New York Jets	4.85%	33.40%	32.90%	28.85%
Buffalo Bills	2.61%	21.44%	31.77%	44.18%

Team	1	2	3	4
Baltimore Ravens	44.84%	30.02%	19.89%	5.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers	29.09%	32.87%	30.19%	7.85%
Cincinnati Bengals	24.58%	31.57%	32.81%	11.04%
Cleveland Browns	1.49%	5.54%	17.11%	75.86%

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Texans	87.41%	10.45%	1.86%	0.28%
Indianapolis Colts	8.28%	49.78%	29.32%	12.62%
Tennessee Titans	3.59%	29.71%	43.25%	23.45%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.72%	10.06%	25.57%	63.65%

Team	1	2	3	4
Denver Broncos	66.30%	27.82%	5.31%	0.57%
San Diego Chargers	28.54%	50.06%	16.87%	4.53%
Oakland Raiders	4.27%	16.16%	48.85%	30.72%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.89%	5.96%	28.97%	64.18%

Team	1	2	3	4
New York Giants	70.71%	19.42%	7.22%	2.65%
Dallas Cowboys	11.87%	30.57%	31.12%	26.44%
Washington Redskins	11.34%	30.09%	31.17%	27.40%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.08%	19.92%	30.49%	43.51%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	50.14%	33.64%	12.22%	4.00%
Chicago Bears	40.17%	37.54%	16.31%	5.98%
Minnesota Vikings	5.15%	14.76%	36.35%	43.74%
Detroit Lions	4.54%	14.06%	35.12%	46.28%

Team	1	2	3	4
Atlanta Falcons	80.59%	14.97%	3.58%	0.86%
New Orleans Saints	12.50%	44.25%	28.28%	14.97%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.18%	23.72%	36.74%	35.36%
Carolina Panthers	2.73%	17.06%	31.40%	48.81%

Team	1	2	3	4
San Francisco 49ers	68.81%	24.53%	5.77%	0.89%
Seattle Seahawks	25.85%	49.73%	19.08%	5.34%
Arizona Cardinals	4.18%	19.07%	49.20%	27.55%
St. Louis Rams	1.16%	6.67%	25.95%	66.22%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	41.01%	22.90%	14.60%	8.82%	4.72%	3.33%	1.67%	1.27%	0.79%	0.35%	0.32%	0.13%	0.06%	0.03%	—	—
Houston Texans	22.90%	22.05%	18.31%	13.77%	7.93%	5.37%	3.52%	2.15%	1.63%	0.85%	0.68%	0.41%	0.27%	0.06%	0.09%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	8.55%	13.43%	15.62%	15.13%	12.37%	9.82%	8.29%	5.81%	3.99%	2.89%	1.89%	1.09%	0.58%	0.36%	0.09%	0.09%
Baltimore Ravens	12.11%	13.72%	13.49%	12.45%	11.58%	8.15%	7.21%	6.13%	4.92%	3.73%	2.58%	1.56%	1.12%	0.80%	0.33%	0.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.88%	9.14%	10.41%	11.29%	11.95%	10.53%	9.33%	8.54%	7.50%	5.18%	3.56%	2.63%	1.92%	1.38%	0.57%	0.19%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.17%	7.64%	9.56%	10.02%	11.30%	10.23%	9.43%	8.81%	7.93%	6.30%	4.83%	3.43%	2.84%	1.77%	1.28%	0.46%
San Diego Chargers	2.19%	4.60%	7.07%	9.79%	10.01%	11.23%	11.66%	9.91%	8.08%	6.72%	6.21%	4.69%	3.34%	2.31%	1.36%	0.83%
Miami Dolphins	0.85%	1.72%	2.44%	4.30%	6.74%	8.96%	9.88%	9.44%	9.75%	10.38%	8.91%	7.96%	7.15%	5.90%	3.57%	2.05%
New York Jets	1.04%	1.72%	2.54%	4.20%	6.60%	8.78%	8.27%	9.10%	9.44%	10.24%	8.47%	8.52%	7.49%	6.45%	4.50%	2.64%
Indianapolis Colts	0.61%	1.46%	2.32%	3.73%	5.42%	7.57%	9.86%	10.68%	10.05%	9.23%	9.87%	8.67%	7.01%	5.64%	4.69%	3.19%
Buffalo Bills	0.35%	0.74%	1.20%	2.16%	3.82%	5.58%	6.27%	7.24%	8.78%	10.05%	10.08%	9.35%	10.90%	10.45%	7.73%	5.30%
Tennessee Titans	0.16%	0.26%	0.85%	1.63%	2.65%	3.87%	5.15%	6.82%	7.95%	9.75%	10.31%	11.82%	10.72%	10.60%	9.05%	8.41%
Oakland Raiders	0.08%	0.28%	0.70%	1.23%	2.08%	2.70%	3.89%	5.31%	6.65%	8.40%	11.40%	11.88%	11.70%	11.56%	11.09%	11.05%
Cleveland Browns	0.07%	0.26%	0.60%	1.05%	1.77%	2.12%	2.87%	4.61%	6.39%	7.08%	8.37%	10.90%	13.79%	15.87%	13.91%	10.34%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%	0.05%	0.14%	0.19%	0.52%	1.01%	1.43%	2.41%	3.04%	4.68%	6.10%	8.49%	10.38%	13.51%	20.13%	27.90%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.03%	0.15%	0.24%	0.54%	0.75%	1.27%	1.77%	3.11%	4.17%	6.42%	8.47%	10.73%	13.31%	21.61%	27.42%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Atlanta Falcons	30.77%	21.74%	15.46%	10.65%	7.02%	4.73%	3.53%	2.20%	1.25%	1.00%	0.60%	0.43%	0.33%	0.14%	0.14%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	17.26%	17.29%	15.66%	12.79%	9.92%	7.34%	6.02%	4.55%	3.15%	2.14%	1.51%	1.12%	0.70%	0.31%	0.17%	0.07%
Green Bay Packers	16.35%	15.78%	13.32%	11.77%	10.61%	8.44%	6.27%	5.25%	3.82%	2.76%	2.16%	1.39%	1.11%	0.47%	0.43%	0.07%
New York Giants	13.13%	14.59%	15.24%	14.96%	10.69%	7.85%	6.50%	4.87%	3.56%	2.66%	2.00%	1.69%	0.98%	0.58%	0.52%	0.18%
Chicago Bears	11.32%	12.19%	12.58%	12.02%	11.34%	9.43%	7.78%	6.13%	4.92%	3.70%	2.72%	2.33%	1.47%	1.00%	0.56%	0.51%
Seattle Seahawks	3.77%	5.84%	8.08%	8.93%	10.00%	10.82%	11.01%	9.31%	7.40%	6.08%	5.37%	4.47%	3.31%	2.62%	1.77%	1.22%
New Orleans Saints	2.89%	3.65%	4.98%	6.53%	8.75%	10.20%	9.40%	9.24%	8.60%	7.97%	6.99%	5.96%	5.26%	4.15%	3.48%	1.95%
Dallas Cowboys	0.79%	1.87%	2.84%	3.79%	5.36%	6.66%	7.46%	8.14%	9.21%	8.60%	8.53%	8.09%	8.61%	7.52%	7.21%	5.32%
Washington Redskins	0.96%	1.35%	2.49%	3.84%	4.77%	5.86%	7.54%	8.70%	8.05%	8.44%	9.18%	8.75%	8.12%	8.07%	7.36%	6.52%
Minnesota Vikings	0.62%	1.29%	2.07%	3.10%	4.31%	5.56%	6.08%	7.11%	8.43%	9.35%	9.19%	8.84%	9.93%	9.42%	7.93%	6.77%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.54%	1.01%	1.81%	2.56%	3.79%	5.54%	6.34%	7.40%	8.25%	9.57%	9.02%	9.75%	9.13%	9.58%	8.49%	7.22%
Detroit Lions	0.63%	1.31%	1.68%	2.70%	4.08%	4.66%	5.25%	6.47%	8.67%	8.58%	9.51%	9.61%	9.85%	10.32%	9.23%	7.45%
Arizona Cardinals	0.32%	0.57%	1.09%	1.93%	2.74%	3.86%	4.99%	6.19%	7.47%	8.42%	10.16%	10.84%	10.87%	9.64%	10.16%	10.75%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.28%	0.72%	1.41%	2.18%	3.04%	3.83%	5.37%	6.19%	6.97%	7.80%	8.77%	9.72%	10.58%	10.94%	11.75%	10.45%
Carolina Panthers	0.33%	0.67%	1.10%	1.65%	2.70%	4.05%	4.82%	5.73%	6.61%	8.30%	8.65%	9.63%	10.48%	12.27%	12.09%	10.92%
St. Louis Rams	0.04%	0.13%	0.19%	0.60%	0.88%	1.17%	1.64%	2.52%	3.64%	4.63%	5.64%	7.38%	9.27%	12.97%	18.71%	30.59%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
New England Patriots	24.41%	16.91%	12.24%	9.79%	7.45%	6.89%	4.63%	4.06%	2.86%	2.53%	1.62%	1.75%	0.93%	0.92%	0.69%	0.52%	0.49%	0.40%	0.18%	0.22%	0.15%	0.11%	0.08%	0.04%	0.05%	0.05%	0.01%	0.02%	—	—	—	—
Atlanta Falcons	16.53%	14.55%	11.29%	10.86%	7.86%	7.13%	5.17%	5.49%	3.96%	3.56%	2.35%	2.45%	1.79%	1.39%	1.20%	0.88%	0.76%	0.57%	0.49%	0.29%	0.30%	0.26%	0.27%	0.20%	0.12%	0.08%	0.09%	0.06%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%	—
Houston Texans	12.79%	10.89%	10.98%	10.49%	8.72%	7.78%	6.98%	6.39%	4.29%	4.24%	2.91%	2.82%	1.93%	1.78%	1.32%	1.20%	0.79%	0.88%	0.54%	0.46%	0.39%	0.41%	0.27%	0.25%	0.18%	0.12%	0.06%	0.04%	0.04%	0.05%	—	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	7.97%	9.35%	8.92%	8.80%	8.15%	7.16%	6.95%	6.03%	5.41%	4.53%	4.15%	3.49%	3.52%	2.67%	2.33%	1.98%	1.63%	1.41%	1.14%	1.06%	0.79%	0.72%	0.53%	0.38%	0.30%	0.31%	0.07%	0.11%	0.06%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	7.21%	8.93%	8.13%	7.92%	7.44%	6.86%	6.40%	5.70%	6.14%	4.37%	4.32%	4.21%	3.65%	2.81%	2.46%	2.19%	2.26%	1.64%	1.51%	1.09%	1.09%	0.82%	0.75%	0.61%	0.49%	0.30%	0.21%	0.22%	0.14%	0.10%	0.03%	—
New York Giants	6.27%	6.97%	7.85%	7.11%	7.87%	7.56%	7.11%	7.41%	5.65%	4.60%	4.72%	3.98%	3.85%	2.64%	2.82%	1.95%	2.00%	1.73%	1.56%	1.10%	1.16%	0.94%	0.75%	0.54%	0.50%	0.32%	0.44%	0.29%	0.12%	0.14%	0.04%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	3.76%	5.03%	6.10%	6.85%	7.39%	7.39%	7.08%	7.03%	5.67%	6.75%	4.89%	5.02%	3.96%	4.49%	3.14%	3.05%	1.78%	2.52%	1.65%	1.57%	0.91%	1.16%	0.66%	0.61%	0.50%	0.34%	0.27%	0.18%	0.07%	0.11%	0.04%	0.03%
Baltimore Ravens	5.72%	5.93%	7.43%	6.21%	6.64%	6.65%	6.56%	5.94%	5.41%	5.81%	4.44%	3.86%	3.62%	3.69%	3.35%	3.08%	2.34%	2.36%	1.80%	1.94%	1.29%	1.42%	0.91%	0.87%	0.76%	0.53%	0.53%	0.35%	0.19%	0.24%	0.10%	0.03%
Chicago Bears	5.09%	6.47%	6.31%	6.39%	6.98%	6.24%	6.43%	5.34%	6.39%	5.49%	5.09%	4.06%	4.09%	3.77%	3.41%	2.53%	2.84%	2.15%	1.80%	1.67%	1.40%	1.17%	1.20%	0.85%	0.66%	0.62%	0.42%	0.40%	0.26%	0.20%	0.19%	0.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.58%	3.57%	3.98%	4.55%	5.07%	5.65%	5.44%	5.84%	5.60%	5.89%	5.02%	5.37%	4.56%	4.93%	4.24%	4.10%	3.26%	3.65%	2.80%	2.83%	1.75%	1.88%	1.43%	1.50%	0.92%	1.15%	0.75%	0.70%	0.43%	0.29%	0.19%	0.08%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.68%	2.37%	3.56%	4.07%	4.40%	4.91%	4.94%	5.31%	4.95%	5.86%	4.85%	5.27%	4.50%	5.15%	4.10%	4.48%	3.62%	4.02%	3.04%	3.14%	2.59%	2.40%	1.75%	1.92%	1.37%	1.62%	1.07%	0.93%	0.86%	0.73%	0.34%	0.20%
Seattle Seahawks	1.69%	1.95%	2.71%	3.47%	4.15%	4.33%	4.78%	4.63%	5.35%	4.93%	5.72%	5.38%	5.45%	5.08%	4.90%	4.41%	3.85%	3.31%	3.25%	2.96%	2.97%	2.73%	2.37%	1.91%	1.74%	1.41%	1.26%	1.02%	0.98%	0.56%	0.56%	0.19%
San Diego Chargers	0.91%	1.29%	2.29%	2.39%	3.00%	4.00%	4.24%	4.37%	4.63%	5.20%	5.16%	5.73%	4.97%	5.61%	4.79%	5.48%	3.34%	4.37%	3.41%	3.94%	2.74%	3.28%	2.59%	2.72%	1.82%	2.07%	1.42%	1.42%	1.07%	0.78%	0.56%	0.41%
New Orleans Saints	1.04%	1.58%	1.75%	2.34%	2.63%	2.78%	3.60%	3.39%	4.44%	4.35%	5.28%	4.72%	5.46%	4.53%	5.11%	4.23%	5.05%	4.19%	3.95%	3.55%	3.85%	3.39%	3.37%	2.42%	2.81%	2.28%	2.06%	1.61%	1.65%	1.20%	1.01%	0.38%
Miami Dolphins	0.18%	0.45%	0.63%	0.95%	1.24%	1.62%	1.86%	2.39%	2.82%	3.36%	3.51%	4.91%	4.28%	4.95%	4.44%	5.00%	4.35%	5.01%	4.47%	5.37%	4.28%	4.84%	3.74%	4.34%	3.67%	3.83%	3.32%	3.02%	2.46%	2.23%	1.39%	1.09%
New York Jets	0.34%	0.57%	0.90%	0.95%	1.33%	1.49%	2.03%	2.28%	2.72%	3.14%	3.75%	3.85%	4.09%	4.34%	4.16%	4.45%	4.39%	4.66%	5.06%	5.18%	4.22%	4.51%	3.71%	4.25%	4.00%	4.03%	3.16%	3.83%	2.47%	2.67%	1.90%	1.57%
Dallas Cowboys	0.18%	0.50%	0.69%	1.06%	1.66%	1.47%	2.07%	2.06%	2.84%	2.55%	3.78%	3.17%	4.27%	3.29%	4.56%	4.34%	5.04%	4.22%	4.74%	4.05%	4.83%	3.86%	4.73%	4.10%	4.46%	3.85%	4.36%	3.29%	3.41%	2.66%	2.55%	1.36%
Indianapolis Colts	0.23%	0.29%	0.52%	0.83%	1.12%	1.35%	1.69%	2.14%	2.32%	2.85%	2.88%	4.09%	3.36%	5.10%	4.48%	5.70%	4.06%	5.12%	4.21%	5.28%	4.33%	5.17%	4.13%	4.75%	3.83%	3.77%	3.30%	3.55%	2.97%	2.67%	2.25%	1.66%
Washington Redskins	0.33%	0.50%	0.68%	0.75%	1.26%	1.44%	1.84%	1.99%	2.76%	2.35%	3.35%	3.18%	3.99%	3.56%	4.71%	4.09%	4.64%	3.93%	4.90%	3.95%	5.41%	4.06%	4.62%	4.04%	4.76%	3.68%	4.11%	3.48%	3.82%	3.02%	2.88%	1.92%
Minnesota Vikings	0.19%	0.41%	0.56%	0.60%	1.00%	1.18%	1.67%	1.66%	2.75%	2.29%	3.03%	2.88%	3.36%	3.28%	3.87%	3.80%	4.90%	4.34%	4.72%	4.37%	4.97%	4.65%	4.96%	4.27%	4.93%	4.74%	4.49%	3.83%	3.78%	3.41%	3.31%	1.80%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.16%	0.30%	0.50%	0.58%	0.74%	1.16%	1.49%	1.59%	1.88%	2.14%	2.76%	2.80%	3.40%	3.54%	4.00%	3.81%	4.48%	4.53%	5.00%	4.09%	5.26%	4.72%	5.30%	4.40%	4.87%	4.19%	5.17%	4.08%	4.31%	3.31%	3.33%	2.11%
Detroit Lions	0.21%	0.34%	0.44%	0.79%	0.92%	0.99%	1.40%	1.58%	2.07%	2.10%	2.60%	2.48%	3.13%	2.82%	3.59%	3.48%	4.84%	4.20%	4.82%	4.34%	5.38%	4.82%	5.21%	4.37%	5.18%	4.62%	5.28%	4.37%	4.42%	3.42%	3.35%	2.44%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%	0.19%	0.31%	0.45%	0.53%	0.60%	0.93%	1.35%	1.52%	1.95%	2.44%	2.81%	2.65%	3.05%	3.14%	3.84%	3.54%	4.43%	4.25%	5.46%	4.54%	5.01%	4.77%	4.86%	5.20%	5.65%	5.11%	5.29%	4.44%	4.64%	3.59%	3.31%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.06%	0.19%	0.39%	0.35%	0.63%	0.67%	1.10%	1.29%	1.54%	1.60%	2.24%	2.16%	2.94%	2.62%	3.28%	3.19%	4.11%	3.48%	4.39%	3.91%	4.73%	4.37%	5.55%	4.81%	5.73%	4.96%	5.99%	5.44%	5.68%	4.82%	4.59%	3.19%
Arizona Cardinals	0.09%	0.17%	0.24%	0.35%	0.41%	0.72%	0.75%	1.11%	1.45%	1.65%	2.15%	1.93%	2.98%	2.72%	3.22%	3.25%	4.10%	3.85%	4.71%	4.16%	5.50%	4.86%	5.46%	5.20%	5.69%	5.22%	5.33%	4.85%	5.27%	4.77%	4.94%	2.90%
Carolina Panthers	0.11%	0.14%	0.30%	0.46%	0.55%	0.54%	0.95%	1.02%	1.32%	1.48%	2.04%	2.01%	2.77%	2.67%	2.97%	3.01%	4.07%	3.53%	4.22%	4.17%	5.09%	4.47%	5.59%	4.77%	5.49%	5.38%	6.45%	5.11%	5.70%	5.05%	5.28%	3.29%
Tennessee Titans	0.05%	0.05%	0.11%	0.16%	0.34%	0.45%	0.48%	0.86%	1.03%	1.43%	1.71%	1.90%	1.73%	2.90%	2.65%	3.35%	3.04%	4.05%	4.28%	5.05%	3.90%	5.19%	4.80%	6.33%	5.14%	5.99%	5.00%	6.36%	5.76%	5.39%	5.01%	5.51%
Oakland Raiders	0.04%	0.03%	0.05%	0.24%	0.15%	0.33%	0.55%	0.63%	0.71%	1.15%	1.11%	1.34%	1.53%	1.85%	2.23%	2.75%	2.90%	3.21%	3.75%	4.49%	4.34%	5.25%	4.68%	6.54%	5.36%	6.29%	5.26%	6.54%	6.36%	6.80%	5.90%	7.64%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%	0.05%	0.06%	0.10%	0.24%	0.36%	0.41%	0.57%	0.71%	0.79%	0.96%	1.13%	1.45%	1.53%	1.78%	2.44%	3.10%	3.08%	3.24%	3.41%	3.71%	4.53%	4.67%	5.30%	5.79%	6.77%	6.69%	8.28%	6.93%	8.22%	6.76%	6.93%
St. Louis Rams	0.01%	0.02%	0.07%	0.07%	0.04%	0.13%	0.29%	0.36%	0.41%	0.46%	0.59%	0.55%	0.94%	0.96%	1.31%	1.36%	2.24%	1.93%	2.73%	2.36%	3.46%	3.21%	4.00%	3.91%	5.10%	5.23%	7.34%	6.79%	9.46%	9.48%	13.23%	11.96%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	—	0.01%	0.04%	0.06%	0.06%	0.09%	0.08%	0.22%	0.30%	0.35%	0.35%	0.43%	0.74%	1.02%	1.03%	1.13%	1.75%	1.80%	2.27%	2.29%	2.64%	3.92%	4.44%	4.34%	5.10%	5.54%	7.04%	8.43%	11.21%	13.37%	19.94%
Kansas City Chiefs	—	0.01%	—	0.03%	0.03%	0.11%	0.09%	0.11%	0.18%	0.30%	0.23%	0.35%	0.42%	0.62%	0.73%	1.03%	1.06%	1.48%	1.59%	2.27%	2.38%	3.15%	3.23%	4.50%	4.24%	5.50%	5.44%	7.50%	8.43%	11.78%	13.27%	19.94%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	41.01%	23.26%	15.39%	8.12%	4.35%	3.27%	4.60%
Houston Texans	22.90%	22.88%	22.16%	19.47%	2.26%	2.49%	7.84%
Baltimore Ravens	12.11%	13.51%	11.44%	7.78%	16.09%	9.63%	29.44%
Denver Broncos	8.55%	13.78%	18.50%	25.47%	5.51%	6.28%	21.91%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.88%	8.76%	8.39%	6.06%	16.48%	12.25%	42.18%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.17%	7.41%	7.63%	5.37%	15.14%	11.90%	48.38%
San Diego Chargers	2.19%	4.64%	7.87%	13.84%	7.71%	9.84%	53.91%
New York Jets	1.04%	1.41%	1.29%	1.11%	8.85%	10.06%	76.24%
Miami Dolphins	0.85%	1.38%	1.33%	1.20%	8.67%	10.35%	76.22%
Indianapolis Colts	0.61%	1.43%	2.31%	3.93%	5.03%	7.99%	78.70%
Buffalo Bills	0.35%	0.59%	0.76%	0.91%	4.23%	6.20%	86.96%
Tennessee Titans	0.16%	0.27%	1.08%	2.08%	2.08%	3.74%	90.59%
Oakland Raiders	0.08%	0.30%	0.91%	2.98%	1.23%	2.14%	92.36%
Cleveland Browns	0.07%	0.26%	0.54%	0.62%	1.71%	2.33%	94.47%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%	0.08%	0.24%	0.38%	0.35%	0.88%	98.05%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.01%	0.04%	0.16%	0.68%	0.31%	0.65%	98.15%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Atlanta Falcons	30.77%	22.16%	16.26%	11.40%	5.51%	4.41%	9.49%
San Francisco 49ers	17.26%	18.03%	17.43%	16.09%	6.71%	6.12%	18.36%
Green Bay Packers	16.35%	15.34%	11.28%	7.17%	15.61%	9.71%	24.54%
New York Giants	13.13%	15.22%	18.63%	23.73%	3.66%	4.86%	20.77%
Chicago Bears	11.32%	11.48%	10.26%	7.11%	16.83%	11.18%	31.82%
Seattle Seahawks	3.77%	5.89%	8.24%	7.95%	10.56%	11.04%	52.55%
New Orleans Saints	2.89%	3.16%	3.32%	3.13%	11.53%	11.78%	64.19%
Washington Redskins	0.96%	1.39%	2.92%	6.07%	3.39%	5.26%	80.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.79%	1.95%	3.32%	5.81%	4.06%	5.88%	78.19%
Detroit Lions	0.63%	1.23%	1.23%	1.45%	4.60%	4.96%	85.90%
Minnesota Vikings	0.62%	1.22%	1.57%	1.74%	5.01%	5.83%	84.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.54%	0.86%	1.44%	1.34%	4.24%	6.02%	85.56%
Carolina Panthers	0.33%	0.62%	0.81%	0.97%	2.79%	4.40%	90.08%
Arizona Cardinals	0.32%	0.58%	1.20%	2.08%	2.48%	3.86%	89.48%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.28%	0.73%	1.76%	3.31%	2.30%	3.45%	88.17%
St. Louis Rams	0.04%	0.14%	0.33%	0.65%	0.72%	1.24%	96.88%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	89.41%	89.41%	65.36%	45.09%	27.84%
Atlanta Falcons	79.04%	79.04%	49.11%	28.94%	13.73%
Denver Broncos	65.11%	65.11%	38.62%	20.17%	11.73%
San Francisco 49ers	66.27%	66.27%	38.94%	21.69%	10.45%
Green Bay Packers	56.93%	56.93%	31.02%	15.72%	7.26%
Houston Texans	77.32%	77.32%	36.81%	15.24%	7.08%
Seattle Seahawks	37.79%	33.37%	19.15%	10.63%	5.33%
Baltimore Ravens	50.20%	50.20%	22.55%	8.59%	3.82%
New York Giants	56.89%	56.89%	23.74%	9.65%	3.77%
Chicago Bears	45.38%	42.38%	16.66%	6.28%	2.47%
Cincinnati Bengals	40.04%	31.26%	13.21%	4.81%	2.13%
Pittsburgh Steelers	43.18%	31.90%	10.60%	3.22%	1.03%
New Orleans Saints	29.76%	17.34%	6.50%	2.43%	0.86%
Washington Redskins	17.64%	10.76%	4.24%	1.46%	0.63%
Minnesota Vikings	14.15%	8.39%	3.48%	1.47%	0.55%
San Diego Chargers	39.26%	20.75%	5.18%	1.16%	0.29%
Indianapolis Colts	19.26%	9.02%	2.85%	0.79%	0.29%
Dallas Cowboys	19.07%	9.13%	2.49%	0.73%	0.23%
Carolina Panthers	8.97%	4.14%	1.39%	0.36%	0.14%
Miami Dolphins	21.55%	8.11%	2.01%	0.40%	0.12%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13.04%	4.56%	1.17%	0.30%	0.07%
New York Jets	21.31%	6.54%	0.95%	0.17%	0.04%
St. Louis Rams	2.94%	1.10%	0.33%	0.06%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	12.10%	3.58%	0.70%	0.15%	0.03%
Tennessee Titans	8.98%	2.94%	0.53%	0.13%	0.03%
Philadelphia Eagles	10.82%	2.65%	0.32%	0.03%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	12.24%	4.27%	0.91%	0.12%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns	5.20%	1.46%	0.31%	0.06%	0.01%
Arizona Cardinals	9.62%	2.78%	0.55%	0.13%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.80%	0.27%	0.04%	—	—
Oakland Raiders	7.26%	1.82%	0.26%	0.02%	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.85%	0.31%	0.02%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.08%	2.65%	0.43%	2.36%	2.17%	1.45%	0.26%	0.23%	1.79%	1.01%	1.97%	0.79%	3.72%	3.88%	0.79%
Buffalo Bills	0.32%		0.18%	0.03%	0.27%	0.39%	0.09%	0.05%	0.02%	0.05%	0.18%	0.05%	0.14%	0.41%	0.40%	0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.54%	0.69%		0.31%	2.09%	2.54%	0.86%	0.13%	0.23%	1.14%	0.76%	1.28%	0.73%	2.75%	3.02%	0.61%
Cleveland Browns	0.13%	0.03%	0.05%		0.11%	0.17%	0.06%	0.01%		0.09%	0.02%	0.12%	0.08%	0.07%	0.16%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	5.30%	2.04%	5.90%	0.97%		2.10%	2.64%	0.33%	0.31%	3.42%	1.54%	3.79%	0.93%	6.57%	5.75%	1.19%
Houston Texans	3.59%	1.91%	3.70%	0.72%	1.49%		2.29%	0.34%	0.18%	3.27%	0.65%	3.88%	0.64%	4.29%	3.40%	1.19%
Indianapolis Colts	0.71%	0.24%	0.58%	0.13%	0.56%	1.20%		0.02%	0.04%	0.39%	0.32%	0.57%	0.20%	1.01%	0.91%	0.10%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%		0.01%	0.03%	0.01%				0.01%	0.02%		0.04%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.05%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%					0.02%	0.01%		0.04%	0.01%	0.02%
Miami Dolphins	0.54%	0.08%	0.45%	0.04%	0.54%	1.10%	0.41%	0.05%	0.03%		0.26%	0.15%	0.20%	0.77%	1.06%	0.20%
New England Patriots	2.53%	1.58%	2.84%	0.50%	1.86%	1.15%	2.08%	0.15%	0.11%	2.82%		2.41%	0.64%	3.02%	2.55%	0.90%
New York Jets	0.43%	0.05%	0.31%	0.08%	0.44%	0.69%	0.20%	0.05%	0.06%	0.10%	0.22%		0.26%	0.52%	0.55%	0.13%
Oakland Raiders	0.17%	0.10%	0.11%	0.05%	0.07%	0.11%	0.07%	0.02%	0.01%	0.10%	0.04%	0.19%		0.24%	0.11%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.12%	0.86%	1.56%	0.32%	1.70%	1.73%	1.03%	0.16%	0.27%	1.10%	0.53%	1.25%	0.78%		3.21%	0.64%
San Diego Chargers	1.60%	0.67%	1.72%	0.40%	1.28%	1.08%	1.00%	0.06%	0.07%	1.19%	0.37%	1.30%	0.34%	2.28%		0.56%
Tennessee Titans	0.30%	0.10%	0.27%	0.08%	0.18%	0.37%	0.09%	0.01%	0.02%	0.21%	0.06%	0.23%	0.09%	0.19%	0.31%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.14%	0.05%	0.26%	0.15%	0.08%	0.24%	0.07%	0.17%	0.22%	0.13%	0.15%	0.07%		0.11%	0.04%
Atlanta Falcons	0.90%		1.21%	3.24%	1.93%	1.30%	2.56%	1.23%	3.02%	2.18%	1.21%	1.74%	2.22%	0.23%	1.69%	1.45%
Carolina Panthers	0.11%	0.26%		0.42%	0.20%	0.16%	0.29%	0.07%	0.12%	0.50%	0.19%	0.42%	0.17%	0.06%	0.07%	0.15%
Chicago Bears	1.13%	1.17%	0.38%		1.44%	0.90%	2.53%	0.46%	1.81%	3.04%	1.19%	2.00%	1.47%	0.25%	0.85%	0.96%
Dallas Cowboys	0.28%	0.52%	0.21%	0.81%		0.31%	0.76%	0.23%	0.66%	0.86%	0.18%	0.56%	0.37%	0.04%	0.41%	0.19%
Detroit Lions	0.18%	0.16%	0.03%	0.21%	0.15%		0.24%	0.05%	0.17%	0.43%	0.17%	0.19%	0.14%	0.06%	0.09%	0.14%
Green Bay Packers	1.03%	1.64%	0.61%	3.83%	1.70%	1.10%		0.97%	2.30%	3.63%	1.17%	2.40%	2.23%	0.25%	1.09%	1.29%
Minnesota Vikings	0.29%	0.48%	0.07%	0.67%	0.45%	0.19%	0.56%		0.50%	1.19%	0.25%	0.90%	0.45%	0.06%	0.19%	0.30%
New Orleans Saints	0.40%	0.92%	0.17%	1.44%	0.80%	0.41%	1.08%	0.40%		2.33%	0.61%	1.04%	0.77%	0.08%	0.33%	0.51%
New York Giants	1.27%	1.39%	1.16%	4.27%	2.00%	1.86%	2.68%	1.43%	3.36%		1.53%	1.74%	2.04%	0.32%	2.02%	1.47%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.08%	0.10%	0.10%	0.23%	0.05%	0.10%	0.20%	0.08%	0.15%	0.24%		0.08%	0.10%	0.05%	0.05%	0.03%
San Francisco 49ers	1.19%	1.51%	0.96%	5.11%	1.82%	1.94%	3.48%	1.36%	3.22%	2.66%	1.19%		3.09%	0.34%	1.61%	1.50%
Seattle Seahawks	0.45%	1.99%	0.59%	3.64%	1.32%	0.93%	2.70%	0.85%	1.94%	3.19%	0.89%	3.15%		0.14%	0.89%	1.04%
St. Louis Rams	0.02%	0.05%	0.01%	0.14%	0.09%	0.04%	0.10%	0.05%	0.06%	0.12%	0.03%	0.06%	0.09%		0.03%	0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.12%	0.29%	0.06%	0.41%	0.29%	0.09%	0.24%	0.04%	0.14%	0.52%	0.24%	0.32%	0.20%	0.07%		0.13%
Washington Redskins	0.29%	0.85%	0.17%	1.12%	0.29%	0.42%	0.87%	0.31%	0.85%	1.23%	0.20%	0.62%	0.67%	0.07%	0.45%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.31%	1.60%	0.07%	3.58%	6.23%	0.89%	0.04%	0.01%	0.73%	3.92%	0.57%	0.17%	2.04%	2.05%	0.34%
Buffalo Bills	0.14%		0.05%	0.01%	0.08%	0.21%					0.08%	0.01%		0.09%	0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.52%	0.15%		0.03%	1.84%	3.63%	0.45%		0.01%	0.29%	2.67%	0.36%	0.14%	0.89%	1.08%	0.15%
Cleveland Browns		0.01%	0.03%		0.04%	0.07%	0.02%				0.07%	0.04%		0.01%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	6.45%	0.41%	3.83%	0.19%		11.03%	0.86%	0.06%	0.01%	0.93%	7.62%	0.89%	0.07%	4.52%	1.35%	0.40%
Houston Texans	6.59%	0.54%	4.15%	0.26%	6.58%		0.86%	0.01%	0.08%	1.26%	5.77%	1.14%	0.47%	5.15%	3.67%	0.28%
Indianapolis Colts	0.42%	0.01%	0.29%	0.01%	0.37%	0.40%				0.05%	0.64%	0.04%	0.05%	0.30%	0.27%
Jacksonville Jaguars											0.01%			0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs					0.01%						0.02%			0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.37%		0.05%	0.01%	0.18%	0.43%	0.06%				0.33%	0.04%	0.01%	0.33%	0.18%	0.02%
New England Patriots	9.65%	1.11%	6.89%	0.47%	11.72%	13.76%	2.56%	0.14%	0.09%	2.44%		2.08%	0.52%	7.14%	5.78%	1.01%
New York Jets	0.19%		0.06%		0.11%	0.22%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	0.11%			0.10%	0.09%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.03%	0.02%			0.02%	0.09%	0.01%			0.01%	0.02%	0.01%		0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.47%	0.21%	0.58%	0.04%	1.57%	2.83%	0.31%		0.02%	0.25%	1.80%	0.27%	0.09%		1.03%	0.13%
San Diego Chargers	0.72%	0.11%	0.50%	0.05%	0.27%	1.53%	0.12%	0.03%		0.11%	0.89%	0.13%	0.04%	0.61%		0.07%
Tennessee Titans	0.10%		0.02%	0.01%	0.12%	0.08%	0.01%			0.01%	0.10%	0.01%		0.05%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.14%	0.01%	0.09%		0.01%	0.05%	0.01%	0.04%	0.09%	0.01%	0.08%	0.01%			0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.62%		0.71%	6.34%	1.98%	0.87%	7.51%	1.69%	2.91%	9.87%	0.71%	8.32%	4.79%	0.30%	0.74%	1.75%
Carolina Panthers	0.01%	0.21%		0.15%	0.02%	0.03%	0.20%	0.05%	0.04%	0.33%	0.02%	0.25%	0.05%	0.01%		0.02%
Chicago Bears	0.19%	2.93%	0.35%		0.65%	0.23%	2.18%	0.26%	0.94%	3.14%	0.21%	3.25%	1.33%	0.07%	0.33%	0.60%
Dallas Cowboys	0.03%	0.53%	0.06%	0.38%		0.05%	0.36%	0.06%	0.13%	0.32%	0.02%	0.35%	0.16%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%
Detroit Lions		0.23%		0.14%			0.12%		0.07%	0.12%		0.16%	0.05%			0.02%
Green Bay Packers	0.50%	5.60%	0.33%	4.33%	1.09%	0.31%		0.67%	1.78%	5.97%	0.35%	5.71%	2.49%	0.10%	0.47%	1.32%
Minnesota Vikings	0.04%	0.66%	0.06%	0.33%	0.13%	0.02%	0.46%		0.18%	0.79%	0.03%	0.47%	0.15%		0.04%	0.12%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	1.31%	0.04%	0.88%	0.16%	0.10%	0.90%	0.14%		1.06%	0.08%	1.08%	0.45%	0.02%	0.06%	0.18%
New York Giants	0.39%	5.18%	0.31%	3.59%	0.43%	0.61%	3.87%	0.66%	1.42%		0.14%	4.08%	2.07%	0.13%	0.42%	0.44%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.01%	0.05%		0.10%		0.02%	0.05%	0.01%		0.05%		0.01%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	0.26%	7.36%	0.64%	5.87%	1.62%	0.76%	6.40%	0.93%	2.29%	7.39%	0.51%		2.45%	0.11%	0.86%	1.49%
Seattle Seahawks	0.07%	4.54%	0.16%	2.55%	0.48%	0.28%	2.89%	0.34%	0.84%	3.34%	0.17%	2.61%			0.36%	0.52%
St. Louis Rams		0.08%	0.02%	0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%		0.01%	0.08%	0.01%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%	0.22%		0.19%	0.04%		0.16%		0.01%	0.16%	0.03%	0.23%	0.05%	0.01%		0.04%
Washington Redskins	0.04%	0.89%	0.06%	0.72%	0.03%	0.06%	0.73%	0.09%	0.18%	0.44%	0.04%	0.71%	0.15%	0.01%	0.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.08%	0.44%		1.62%	1.89%	0.21%			0.17%	3.11%	0.09%	0.07%	0.47%	0.40%	0.04%
Buffalo Bills	0.02%			0.01%	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%				0.01%	0.01%			0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.47%	0.07%		0.01%	0.99%	1.02%	0.07%			0.08%	1.64%	0.05%	0.01%	0.17%	0.19%	0.04%
Cleveland Browns					0.02%	0.01%					0.03%
Denver Broncos	2.91%	0.12%	1.85%	0.05%		4.66%	0.45%		0.02%	0.31%	7.77%	0.22%	0.01%	1.27%	0.39%	0.14%
Houston Texans	2.14%	0.07%	1.32%	0.05%	3.11%		0.18%			0.35%	5.94%	0.14%	0.01%	1.26%	0.66%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.17%		0.11%		0.15%	0.10%				0.02%	0.14%		0.01%	0.09%
Miami Dolphins	0.05%		0.03%	0.01%	0.09%	0.07%	0.01%				0.08%			0.04%	0.02%
New England Patriots	7.78%	0.19%	4.38%	0.12%	11.62%	12.80%	0.96%	0.01%	0.02%	0.60%		0.20%	0.11%	3.99%	2.16%	0.15%
New York Jets	0.03%				0.01%	0.09%					0.02%			0.01%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders						0.01%					0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.17%	0.02%	0.21%		0.65%	0.63%	0.13%			0.08%	1.09%	0.04%	0.02%		0.18%
San Diego Chargers	0.18%		0.06%		0.12%	0.25%	0.04%	0.01%			0.39%	0.03%		0.06%		0.02%
Tennessee Titans	0.04%				0.02%	0.01%					0.04%			0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.03%					0.02%			0.05%		0.01%	0.01%			0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.13%		0.32%	3.73%	0.44%	0.20%	6.32%	0.76%	0.85%	4.54%	0.13%	7.19%	3.21%	0.14%	0.17%	0.81%
Carolina Panthers		0.06%		0.06%			0.04%	0.01%	0.01%	0.08%		0.05%	0.04%			0.01%
Chicago Bears	0.04%	1.73%	0.05%		0.11%	0.02%	0.81%	0.06%	0.32%	1.06%	0.05%	1.21%	0.56%	0.03%	0.04%	0.19%
Dallas Cowboys		0.15%		0.06%			0.07%	0.01%	0.04%	0.09%		0.25%	0.04%		0.01%	0.01%
Detroit Lions		0.02%		0.01%			0.02%		0.01%	0.01%		0.02%	0.02%			0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.12%	4.97%	0.15%	1.08%	0.33%	0.08%		0.20%	0.64%	2.43%	0.02%	3.36%	1.67%	0.02%	0.21%	0.44%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%	0.29%	0.01%	0.09%	0.01%		0.17%		0.10%	0.10%	0.01%	0.39%	0.21%			0.08%
New Orleans Saints	0.03%	0.35%	0.01%	0.40%	0.05%	0.03%	0.38%	0.04%		0.37%		0.49%	0.22%		0.03%	0.03%
New York Giants	0.01%	2.32%	0.11%	1.06%	0.09%	0.17%	1.35%	0.23%	0.54%		0.01%	2.43%	1.07%	0.02%	0.11%	0.13%
Philadelphia Eagles												0.01%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	6.93%	0.28%	2.46%	0.53%	0.22%	3.99%	0.44%	0.99%	3.59%	0.05%		1.34%	0.01%	0.16%	0.63%
Seattle Seahawks	0.01%	2.76%	0.09%	1.26%	0.19%	0.06%	1.78%	0.24%	0.48%	1.61%	0.02%	1.53%		0.05%	0.13%	0.42%
St. Louis Rams		0.01%		0.02%			0.02%					0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.08%		0.04%			0.07%	0.01%		0.04%		0.04%	0.01%			0.01%
Washington Redskins		0.47%	0.01%	0.11%	0.01%	0.01%	0.26%	0.01%	0.09%	0.12%		0.26%	0.10%		0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals										0.01%
Atlanta Falcons			1.33%	0.02%			0.85%	0.01%		2.58%			2.60%	0.22%	0.08%		5.04%			0.03%	0.01%		0.68%	0.26%					0.02%
Baltimore Ravens	0.02%	1.22%			0.01%	0.28%			0.02%			0.62%				0.05%		0.06%	0.49%						0.76%	0.23%		0.02%		0.04%
Buffalo Bills		0.01%										0.01%																		0.01%
Carolina Panthers			0.01%							0.03%			0.02%				0.06%						0.02%
Chicago Bears			0.27%	0.01%			0.13%			0.41%			0.50%	0.03%	0.01%		0.90%						0.13%	0.07%					0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals		0.65%				0.13%			0.04%			0.31%				0.03%		0.10%	0.22%						0.38%	0.22%		0.01%		0.04%
Cleveland Browns												0.01%
Dallas Cowboys			0.01%				0.01%			0.07%			0.05%		0.01%		0.07%						0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.02%	3.25%			0.05%	0.82%			0.15%		0.02%	1.76%				0.12%		0.37%	1.30%						2.43%	1.19%		0.07%		0.18%
Detroit Lions																	0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.74%	0.04%			0.37%	0.01%		1.30%			1.42%	0.02%	0.06%		2.79%			0.02%			0.32%	0.14%					0.03%
Houston Texans	0.02%	1.90%			0.03%	0.50%			0.09%		0.04%	1.01%				0.10%		0.17%	0.73%						1.62%	0.69%		0.06%		0.12%
Indianapolis Colts		0.05%				0.04%						0.09%						0.01%	0.03%						0.04%	0.02%				0.01%
Miami Dolphins		0.04%				0.01%										0.01%			0.01%						0.02%	0.03%
Minnesota Vikings			0.08%				0.07%			0.07%			0.11%				0.19%						0.03%
New England Patriots	0.05%	7.81%			0.13%	1.93%			0.19%		0.05%	4.43%				0.51%		0.84%	2.92%			0.02%			5.72%	2.76%	0.02%	0.05%		0.41%
New Orleans Saints			0.10%				0.06%			0.14%			0.15%				0.32%						0.06%	0.03%
New York Giants			0.51%				0.25%	0.01%		0.68%			0.75%	0.04%	0.02%		1.30%			0.01%			0.11%	0.07%					0.02%
New York Jets		0.01%										0.02%							0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles													0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.01%	0.24%				0.08%			0.01%			0.13%				0.08%		0.02%	0.10%						0.22%	0.11%		0.02%		0.01%
San Diego Chargers		0.03%				0.02%						0.06%				0.02%			0.06%						0.05%	0.04%				0.01%
San Francisco 49ers			1.13%	0.01%			0.58%	0.01%		2.04%			1.57%	0.08%	0.08%		4.19%			0.07%	0.01%		0.51%	0.16%					0.01%
Seattle Seahawks			0.53%	0.02%			0.27%	0.01%		1.01%			0.92%	0.08%	0.02%		2.04%						0.30%	0.12%					0.01%
St. Louis Rams			0.01%							0.01%			0.01%				0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers							0.01%						0.01%				0.05%
Tennessee Titans												0.01%							0.01%							0.01%
Washington Redskins			0.05%	0.02%			0.08%			0.09%			0.04%	0.03%			0.28%						0.02%	0.02%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New England Patriots	100.00%	75.02%	42.08%	24.30%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Denver Broncos	100.00%	70.49%	38.52%	20.83%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Atlanta Falcons	100.00%	60.90%	36.24%	16.92%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
San Francisco 49ers	100.00%	57.77%	26.29%	11.62%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Seattle Seahawks	58.17%	27.56%	14.19%	7.55%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	66.56%	28.06%	13.41%	6.13%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Houston Texans	60.28%	16.31%	7.03%	3.28%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Baltimore Ravens	68.28%	18.92%	6.51%	2.79%	Won Super Bowl
Washington Redskins	41.83%	14.25%	5.52%	2.29%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cincinnati Bengals	39.72%	12.76%	4.16%	1.91%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Minnesota Vikings	33.44%	11.46%	4.35%	1.81%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Indianapolis Colts	31.72%	6.50%	1.70%	0.57%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts
Baltimore Ravens				68.28%
Cincinnati Bengals			39.72%
Houston Texans		60.28%
Indianapolis Colts	31.72%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Green Bay Packers		66.56%
Minnesota Vikings	33.44%
Seattle Seahawks				58.17%
Washington Redskins			41.83%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens			12.52%			6.40%
Cincinnati Bengals			12.76%
Denver Broncos	28.68%	26.96%			14.85%
Houston Texans						16.31%
Indianapolis Colts			4.23%			2.27%
New England Patriots	20.68%			43.97%	10.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons			21.98%		20.14%	18.78%
Green Bay Packers				28.06%
Minnesota Vikings	11.46%
San Francisco 49ers		38.50%			10.47%	8.80%
Seattle Seahawks	18.20%			9.36%
Washington Redskins	9.44%			4.81%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots
Baltimore Ravens		1.11%	1.62%	1.17%		2.61%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.79%				0.37%	3.00%
Denver Broncos	2.88%			7.84%	1.10%	26.70%
Houston Texans	2.02%		4.29%		0.72%
Indianapolis Colts		0.36%	0.44%	0.27%		0.63%
New England Patriots	6.72%	7.13%	25.62%		2.61%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		9.67%		21.45%	3.16%	1.96%
Green Bay Packers	6.83%				4.12%	2.46%
Minnesota Vikings				2.59%	1.11%	0.65%
San Francisco 49ers	13.44%		4.21%		4.98%	3.66%
Seattle Seahawks	3.09%	3.75%	2.00%	5.35%
Washington Redskins	1.30%	1.23%	0.90%	2.09%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Atlanta Falcons		1.41%	0.79%	6.23%		1.47%	0.38%		6.64%
Baltimore Ravens	0.93%				0.36%			0.13%		0.92%	0.30%	0.15%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.71%				0.21%			0.10%		0.56%	0.22%	0.11%
Denver Broncos	7.70%				2.84%			0.93%		5.76%	2.39%	1.21%
Green Bay Packers		0.50%	0.40%	2.42%		0.47%	0.09%		2.25%
Houston Texans	0.97%				0.49%			0.13%		0.97%	0.51%	0.21%
Indianapolis Colts	0.17%				0.09%			0.03%		0.09%	0.12%	0.07%
Minnesota Vikings		0.21%	0.10%	0.69%		0.10%	0.06%		0.65%
New England Patriots	8.84%				3.29%			1.22%		6.37%	3.10%	1.48%
San Francisco 49ers		0.85%	0.57%	4.51%		0.93%	0.32%		4.44%
Seattle Seahawks		0.56%	0.24%	2.97%		0.57%	0.25%		2.96%
Washington Redskins		0.19%	0.15%	0.87%		0.21%	0.03%		0.84%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

New England Patriots 24.30% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

58.61%

Win Prob

72.94%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

60.88%

Win Prob

48.97%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

36.38%

Win Prob

57.11%

Denver Broncos 20.83% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

40.69%

Win Prob

69.61%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

69.31%

Win Prob

51.03%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

36.97%

Win Prob

55.28%

Atlanta Falcons 16.92% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

36.09%

Win Prob

65.73%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

59.19%

Win Prob

61.48%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

39.24%

Win Prob

42.89%

San Francisco 49ers 11.62% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

66.64%

Win Prob

57.84%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

51.12%

Win Prob

38.52%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

38.81%

Win Prob

43.91%

Seattle Seahawks 7.55% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.17%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

66.04%

Win Prob

47.47%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

37.70%

Win Prob

51.79%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

39.34%

Win Prob

55.41%

Green Bay Packers 6.13% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

66.56%

→

Divisional Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.16%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

50.93%

Win Prob

41.39%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

39.48%

Win Prob

46.01%

Houston Texans 3.28% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.28%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

27.06%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

61.02%

Win Prob

35.37%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

29.57%

Win Prob

39.75%

Baltimore Ravens 2.79% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

68.28%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

66.17%

Win Prob

30.39%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

40.09%

Win Prob

27.97%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

33.33%

Win Prob

39.74%

Washington Redskins 2.29% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.83%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

66.25%

Win Prob

33.45%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

37.86%

Win Prob

36.35%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

37.99%

Win Prob

41.83%

Cincinnati Bengals 1.91% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.72%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

32.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

72.12%

Win Prob

29.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

37.17%

Win Prob

47.33%

Minnesota Vikings 1.81% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

33.44%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.27%

→

Conference Championship

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

59.54%

Win Prob

38.09%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

38.12%

Win Prob

42.59%

Indianapolis Colts 0.57% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

31.72%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

65.08%

Win Prob

22.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

37.06%

Win Prob

19.44%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

29.82%

Win Prob

30.91%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2012-09-09	Seattle Seahawks	W 20-16	1475.31	1499.34	53.69%	45.84%	+17.62	1-0
2012-09-16	@ New England Patriots	W 20-18	1492.93	1638.71	24.15%	75.38%	+20.46	2-0
2012-09-23	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-6	1513.39	1568.75	49.20%	50.34%	+44.31	3-0
2012-09-30	Miami Dolphins	W 24-21	1557.70	1486.18	66.73%	32.81%	+10.94	4-0
2012-10-04	@ St. Louis Rams	L 3-17	1568.64	1408.15	64.95%	34.59%	-46.65	4-1
2012-10-14	Buffalo Bills	L 16-19	1521.99	1426.66	69.67%	29.86%	-23.16	4-2
2012-10-21	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-21	1498.83	1506.60	41.34%	58.19%	-21.03	4-3
2012-10-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 3-24	1477.80	1615.16	37.66%	61.88%	-33.19	4-4
2012-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-31	1444.61	1632.67	19.98%	79.56%	-14.40	4-5
2012-11-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 19-23	1430.21	1664.67	16.05%	83.49%	-6.18	4-6
2012-11-25	St. Louis Rams	L 17-31	1424.03	1360.31	65.73%	33.81%	-47.21	4-7
2012-12-02	@ New York Jets	L 6-7	1376.82	1420.65	36.42%	63.12%	-7.00	4-8
2012-12-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-58	1369.82	1561.72	19.63%	79.91%	-28.80	4-9
2012-12-16	Detroit Lions	W 38-10	1341.02	1441.78	42.72%	56.82%	+57.73	5-9
2012-12-23	Chicago Bears	L 13-28	1398.75	1520.13	39.84%	59.70%	-29.66	5-10
2012-12-30	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-27	1369.09	1669.60	11.56%	87.98%	-8.34	5-11
2012-09-09	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 40-24	1521.44	1466.06	50.34%	49.19%	+37.80	1-0
2012-09-17	Denver Broncos	W 27-21	1559.24	1501.20	64.99%	34.54%	+16.28	2-0
2012-09-23	@ San Diego Chargers	W 27-3	1575.52	1585.15	41.08%	58.45%	+54.97	3-0
2012-09-30	Carolina Panthers	W 30-28	1630.49	1436.86	80.07%	19.47%	+5.31	4-0
2012-10-07	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-17	1635.80	1450.77	68.07%	31.46%	+16.01	5-0
2012-10-14	Oakland Raiders	W 23-20	1651.81	1391.40	85.40%	14.13%	+4.72	6-0
2012-10-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-17	1656.53	1505.50	63.71%	35.83%	+24.85	7-0
2012-11-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 19-13	1681.38	1459.05	82.53%	17.01%	+8.02	8-0
2012-11-11	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-31	1689.40	1532.87	64.44%	35.10%	-24.73	8-1
2012-11-18	Arizona Cardinals	W 23-19	1664.67	1430.21	83.49%	16.05%	+6.18	9-1
2012-11-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-23	1670.85	1537.42	61.35%	38.19%	+7.35	10-1
2012-11-29	New Orleans Saints	W 23-13	1678.20	1559.33	72.43%	27.10%	+16.50	11-1
2012-12-09	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-30	1694.70	1374.80	82.10%	17.44%	-49.84	11-2
2012-12-16	New York Giants	W 34-0	1644.86	1661.93	54.69%	44.85%	+50.25	12-2
2012-12-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-18	1695.11	1384.05	81.36%	18.18%	+12.63	13-2
2012-12-30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-22	1707.74	1398.90	88.46%	11.08%	-12.66	13-3
2012-09-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 44-13	1568.85	1496.48	66.83%	32.70%	+35.03	1-0
2012-09-16	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 23-24	1603.88	1559.38	48.78%	50.76%	-9.37	1-1
2012-09-23	New England Patriots	W 31-30	1594.51	1618.25	53.74%	45.80%	+8.80	2-1
2012-09-27	Cleveland Browns	W 23-16	1603.31	1381.08	82.52%	17.02%	+8.68	3-1
2012-10-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 9-6	1611.99	1385.22	73.01%	26.52%	+8.84	4-1
2012-10-14	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-29	1620.83	1455.92	77.34%	22.19%	+6.05	5-1
2012-10-21	@ Houston Texans	L 13-43	1626.88	1602.30	45.92%	53.62%	-48.33	5-2
2012-11-04	@ Cleveland Browns	W 25-15	1578.55	1392.55	68.20%	31.34%	+19.07	6-2
2012-11-11	Oakland Raiders	W 55-20	1597.62	1396.32	80.75%	18.79%	+21.41	7-2
2012-11-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1619.03	1603.83	44.58%	54.95%	+18.28	8-2
2012-11-25	@ San Diego Chargers	W 16-13	1637.31	1462.69	66.77%	32.77%	+10.92	9-2
2012-12-02	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-23	1648.23	1551.53	69.84%	29.70%	-23.22	9-3
2012-12-09	@ Washington Redskins	L 28-31	1625.01	1493.62	61.07%	38.47%	-20.31	9-4
2012-12-16	Denver Broncos	L 17-34	1604.70	1667.24	48.16%	51.37%	-38.15	9-5
2012-12-23	New York Giants	W 33-14	1566.55	1611.67	50.67%	48.87%	+40.92	10-5
2012-12-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-23	1607.47	1589.38	44.99%	54.54%	-7.06	10-6
2012-09-09	@ New York Jets	L 28-48	1456.46	1498.67	36.63%	62.90%	-31.51	0-1
2012-09-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-17	1424.95	1428.26	56.64%	42.90%	+34.98	1-1
2012-09-23	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-14	1459.93	1411.57	49.33%	50.20%	+30.50	2-1
2012-09-30	New England Patriots	L 28-52	1490.43	1609.45	40.16%	59.37%	-37.83	2-2
2012-10-07	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-45	1452.60	1632.11	20.78%	78.76%	-25.94	2-3
2012-10-14	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 19-16	1426.66	1521.99	29.86%	69.67%	+23.16	3-3
2012-10-21	Tennessee Titans	L 34-35	1449.82	1417.52	61.57%	37.97%	-11.82	3-4
2012-11-04	@ Houston Texans	L 9-21	1438.00	1650.63	17.81%	81.72%	-11.88	3-5
2012-11-11	@ New England Patriots	L 31-37	1426.12	1681.85	14.46%	85.07%	-6.83	3-6
2012-11-15	Miami Dolphins	W 19-14	1419.29	1451.12	52.58%	46.96%	+20.17	4-6
2012-11-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-20	1439.46	1452.65	40.59%	58.95%	-20.64	4-7
2012-12-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-18	1418.82	1301.89	72.21%	27.33%	+21.04	5-7
2012-12-09	St. Louis Rams	L 12-15	1439.86	1434.28	57.89%	41.65%	-19.25	5-8
2012-12-16	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-50	1420.61	1590.52	33.37%	66.17%	-36.88	5-9
2012-12-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-24	1383.73	1448.36	33.69%	65.85%	-24.25	5-10
2012-12-30	New York Jets	W 28-9	1359.48	1391.61	52.53%	47.00%	+39.36	6-10
2012-09-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-16	1482.00	1395.34	54.83%	44.71%	-25.78	0-1
2012-09-16	New Orleans Saints	W 35-27	1456.22	1554.45	43.07%	56.47%	+30.66	1-1
2012-09-20	New York Giants	L 7-36	1486.88	1548.13	48.35%	51.19%	-50.02	1-2
2012-09-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1436.86	1630.49	19.47%	80.07%	-5.30	1-3
2012-10-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 12-16	1431.56	1506.31	46.41%	53.13%	-17.84	1-4
2012-10-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-19	1413.72	1449.88	51.96%	47.58%	-22.31	1-5
2012-10-28	@ Chicago Bears	L 22-23	1391.41	1617.80	16.68%	82.85%	-3.22	1-6
2012-11-04	@ Washington Redskins	W 21-13	1388.19	1442.32	35.05%	64.48%	+35.01	2-6
2012-11-11	Denver Broncos	L 14-36	1423.20	1591.55	33.57%	65.97%	-30.29	2-7
2012-11-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-27	1392.91	1518.96	39.19%	60.34%	-18.46	2-8
2012-11-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 30-22	1374.45	1367.93	43.35%	56.18%	+30.51	3-8
2012-12-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-27	1404.96	1250.65	64.14%	35.39%	-30.16	3-9
2012-12-09	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-20	1374.80	1694.70	17.44%	82.10%	+49.84	4-9
2012-12-16	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-7	1424.64	1474.70	35.59%	63.95%	+60.13	5-9
2012-12-23	Oakland Raiders	W 17-6	1484.77	1327.37	76.59%	22.95%	+14.66	6-9
2012-12-30	@ New Orleans Saints	W 44-38	1499.43	1578.71	31.83%	67.70%	+31.83	7-9
2012-09-09	Indianapolis Colts	W 41-21	1501.88	1426.08	67.27%	32.27%	+27.77	1-0
2012-09-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-23	1529.65	1547.56	39.93%	59.60%	-27.69	1-1
2012-09-23	St. Louis Rams	W 23-6	1501.96	1400.85	70.37%	29.17%	+23.15	2-1
2012-10-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-18	1525.11	1496.68	46.47%	53.07%	+40.76	3-1
2012-10-07	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-3	1565.87	1391.21	66.77%	32.76%	+38.86	4-1
2012-10-22	Detroit Lions	W 13-7	1604.73	1491.28	71.81%	27.73%	+13.07	5-1
2012-10-28	Carolina Panthers	W 23-22	1617.80	1391.41	82.85%	16.68%	+3.22	6-1
2012-11-04	@ Tennessee Titans	W 51-20	1621.02	1400.13	72.35%	27.19%	+29.14	7-1
2012-11-11	Houston Texans	L 6-13	1650.16	1662.52	55.36%	44.18%	-28.12	7-2
2012-11-19	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 7-32	1622.04	1644.99	39.24%	60.30%	-37.73	7-3
2012-11-25	Minnesota Vikings	W 28-10	1584.31	1475.94	71.22%	28.32%	+23.12	8-3
2012-12-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-23	1607.43	1530.00	67.47%	32.06%	-31.72	8-4
2012-12-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-21	1575.71	1439.40	61.74%	37.80%	-31.36	8-5
2012-12-16	Green Bay Packers	L 13-21	1544.35	1632.08	44.56%	54.98%	-24.22	8-6
2012-12-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 28-13	1520.13	1398.75	59.70%	39.84%	+29.67	9-6
2012-12-30	@ Detroit Lions	W 26-24	1549.80	1371.42	67.24%	32.29%	+8.78	10-6
2012-09-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-44	1496.48	1568.85	32.70%	66.83%	-35.03	0-1
2012-09-16	Cleveland Browns	W 34-27	1461.45	1431.02	61.32%	38.22%	+19.44	1-1
2012-09-23	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-31	1480.89	1464.87	44.70%	54.84%	+27.86	2-1
2012-09-30	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-10	1508.75	1427.21	54.10%	45.44%	+36.00	3-1
2012-10-07	Miami Dolphins	L 13-17	1544.75	1475.25	66.47%	33.07%	-25.51	3-2
2012-10-14	@ Cleveland Browns	L 24-34	1519.24	1359.48	64.86%	34.68%	-39.37	3-3
2012-10-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-24	1479.87	1523.92	50.82%	48.71%	-25.83	3-4
2012-11-04	Denver Broncos	L 23-31	1454.04	1569.43	40.67%	58.87%	-22.11	3-5
2012-11-11	New York Giants	W 31-13	1431.93	1650.72	27.43%	72.11%	+58.72	4-5
2012-11-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 28-6	1490.65	1283.90	70.71%	28.83%	+26.03	5-5
2012-11-25	Oakland Raiders	W 34-10	1516.68	1346.91	77.82%	21.72%	+20.48	6-5
2012-12-02	@ San Diego Chargers	W 20-13	1537.16	1451.77	54.65%	44.89%	+22.83	7-5
2012-12-09	Dallas Cowboys	L 19-20	1559.99	1480.79	67.69%	31.84%	-12.99	7-6
2012-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 34-13	1547.00	1348.00	69.78%	29.75%	+26.24	8-6
2012-12-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 13-10	1573.24	1513.20	51.01%	48.52%	+16.14	9-6
2012-12-30	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-17	1589.38	1607.47	54.54%	44.99%	+7.06	10-6
2012-09-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-17	1438.91	1551.48	41.06%	58.48%	-7.89	0-1
2012-09-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 27-34	1431.02	1461.45	38.22%	61.32%	-19.45	0-2
2012-09-23	Buffalo Bills	L 14-24	1411.57	1459.93	50.20%	49.33%	-30.49	0-3
2012-09-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 16-23	1381.08	1603.31	17.02%	82.52%	-8.68	0-4
2012-10-07	@ New York Giants	L 27-41	1372.40	1583.76	17.92%	81.62%	-12.92	0-5
2012-10-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-24	1359.48	1519.24	34.68%	64.86%	+39.37	1-5
2012-10-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-17	1398.85	1375.44	45.75%	53.78%	-17.58	1-6
2012-10-28	San Diego Chargers	W 7-6	1381.27	1495.85	40.78%	58.76%	+11.28	2-6
2012-11-04	Baltimore Ravens	L 15-25	1392.55	1578.55	31.34%	68.20%	-19.08	2-7
2012-11-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-23	1373.47	1493.53	26.97%	72.57%	-8.99	2-8
2012-11-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-14	1364.48	1585.56	27.17%	72.37%	+34.03	3-8
2012-12-02	@ Oakland Raiders	W 20-17	1398.51	1326.42	52.74%	46.79%	+15.57	4-8
2012-12-09	Kansas City Chiefs	W 30-7	1414.08	1280.81	74.04%	25.50%	+23.54	5-8
2012-12-16	Washington Redskins	L 21-38	1437.62	1513.93	46.19%	53.35%	-36.59	5-9
2012-12-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 12-34	1401.03	1705.39	11.33%	88.20%	-10.25	5-10
2012-12-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-24	1390.78	1497.06	28.56%	70.98%	-20.57	5-11
2012-09-05	@ New York Giants	W 24-17	1488.47	1568.40	31.75%	67.78%	+34.42	1-0
2012-09-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-27	1522.89	1481.72	48.30%	51.24%	-41.50	1-1
2012-09-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-10	1481.39	1406.97	67.09%	32.44%	+15.29	2-1
2012-10-01	Chicago Bears	L 18-34	1496.68	1525.11	53.07%	46.47%	-40.76	2-2
2012-10-14	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 29-31	1455.92	1620.83	22.19%	77.34%	-6.04	2-3
2012-10-21	@ Carolina Panthers	W 19-14	1449.88	1413.72	47.58%	51.96%	+22.31	3-3
2012-10-28	New York Giants	L 24-29	1472.19	1664.77	30.53%	69.00%	-13.14	3-4
2012-11-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-19	1459.05	1681.38	17.01%	82.53%	-8.03	3-5
2012-11-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-23	1451.02	1451.43	42.37%	57.16%	+42.51	4-5
2012-11-18	Cleveland Browns	W 23-20	1493.53	1373.47	72.57%	26.97%	+8.99	5-5
2012-11-22	Washington Redskins	L 31-38	1502.52	1448.31	64.49%	35.04%	-32.75	5-6
2012-12-02	Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-33	1469.77	1337.42	73.94%	25.60%	+11.02	6-6
2012-12-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-19	1480.79	1559.99	31.84%	67.69%	+12.99	7-6
2012-12-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1493.78	1528.99	52.09%	47.44%	+15.79	8-6
2012-12-23	New Orleans Saints	L 31-34	1509.57	1562.22	49.59%	49.95%	-16.50	8-7
2012-12-30	@ Washington Redskins	L 18-28	1493.07	1563.92	32.90%	66.64%	-20.01	8-8
2012-09-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-19	1464.23	1556.20	43.96%	55.58%	+36.97	1-0
2012-09-17	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-27	1501.20	1559.24	34.54%	64.99%	-16.28	1-1
2012-09-23	Houston Texans	L 25-31	1484.92	1608.20	39.58%	59.96%	-18.64	1-2
2012-09-30	Oakland Raiders	W 37-6	1466.28	1431.72	61.88%	37.66%	+40.33	2-2
2012-10-07	@ New England Patriots	L 21-31	1506.61	1647.28	24.70%	74.84%	-15.04	2-3
2012-10-15	@ San Diego Chargers	W 35-24	1491.57	1536.09	36.32%	63.21%	+40.24	3-3
2012-10-28	New Orleans Saints	W 34-14	1531.81	1541.27	55.77%	43.77%	+37.62	4-3
2012-11-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 31-23	1569.43	1454.04	58.87%	40.67%	+22.12	5-3
2012-11-11	@ Carolina Panthers	W 36-14	1591.55	1423.20	65.97%	33.57%	+30.29	6-3
2012-11-18	San Diego Chargers	W 30-23	1621.84	1474.93	75.50%	24.04%	+12.24	7-3
2012-11-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-9	1634.08	1257.87	86.29%	13.25%	+7.22	8-3
2012-12-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-23	1641.30	1530.08	71.55%	27.98%	+15.24	9-3
2012-12-06	@ Oakland Raiders	W 26-13	1656.54	1310.85	84.14%	15.40%	+10.70	10-3
2012-12-16	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 34-17	1667.24	1604.70	51.37%	48.16%	+38.15	11-3
2012-12-23	Cleveland Browns	W 34-12	1705.39	1401.03	88.20%	11.33%	+10.25	12-3
2012-12-30	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-3	1715.64	1218.19	95.50%	4.04%	+4.61	13-3
2012-09-09	St. Louis Rams	W 27-23	1526.55	1391.65	74.22%	25.32%	+9.75	1-0
2012-09-16	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 19-27	1536.30	1602.71	33.46%	66.07%	-18.21	1-1
2012-09-23	@ Tennessee Titans	L 41-44	1518.09	1424.96	55.74%	43.79%	-18.54	1-2
2012-09-30	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-20	1499.55	1487.67	58.77%	40.77%	-29.85	1-3
2012-10-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-23	1469.70	1527.08	34.63%	64.91%	+21.58	2-3
2012-10-22	@ Chicago Bears	L 7-13	1491.28	1604.73	27.73%	71.81%	-13.07	2-4
2012-10-28	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-24	1478.21	1518.71	51.33%	48.20%	+18.52	3-4
2012-11-04	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-14	1496.73	1332.59	65.43%	34.11%	+27.06	4-4
2012-11-11	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-34	1523.79	1443.17	53.96%	45.57%	-32.77	4-5
2012-11-18	Green Bay Packers	L 20-24	1491.02	1647.07	35.16%	64.37%	-13.53	4-6
2012-11-22	Houston Texans	L 31-34	1477.49	1693.63	27.73%	71.80%	-9.25	4-7
2012-12-02	Indianapolis Colts	L 33-35	1468.24	1473.29	56.39%	43.14%	-15.31	4-8
2012-12-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-27	1452.93	1620.92	21.89%	77.65%	-11.15	4-9
2012-12-16	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-38	1441.78	1341.02	56.82%	42.72%	-57.73	4-10
2012-12-22	Atlanta Falcons	L 18-31	1384.05	1695.11	18.18%	81.36%	-12.63	4-11
2012-12-30	Chicago Bears	L 24-26	1371.42	1549.80	32.29%	67.24%	-8.79	4-12
2012-09-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 22-30	1579.19	1571.09	58.24%	41.30%	-31.63	0-1
2012-09-13	Chicago Bears	W 23-10	1547.56	1529.65	59.60%	39.93%	+27.69	1-1
2012-09-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 12-14	1575.25	1523.22	49.86%	49.67%	-13.55	1-2
2012-09-30	New Orleans Saints	W 28-27	1561.70	1499.27	65.56%	33.97%	+6.54	2-2
2012-10-07	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 27-30	1568.24	1390.14	67.21%	32.33%	-22.34	2-3
2012-10-14	@ Houston Texans	W 42-24	1545.90	1660.93	27.54%	71.99%	+58.62	3-3
2012-10-21	@ St. Louis Rams	W 30-20	1604.52	1442.76	65.12%	34.42%	+20.94	4-3
2012-10-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-15	1625.46	1339.80	87.08%	12.46%	+7.21	5-3
2012-11-04	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-17	1632.67	1444.61	79.56%	19.98%	+14.40	6-3
2012-11-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-20	1647.07	1491.02	64.37%	35.16%	+13.52	7-3
2012-11-25	@ New York Giants	L 10-38	1660.59	1592.00	52.24%	47.29%	-53.09	7-4
2012-12-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-14	1607.50	1452.82	76.31%	23.23%	+13.42	8-4
2012-12-09	Detroit Lions	W 27-20	1620.92	1452.93	77.65%	21.89%	+11.16	9-4
2012-12-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-13	1632.08	1544.35	54.98%	44.56%	+24.22	10-4
2012-12-23	Tennessee Titans	W 55-7	1656.30	1419.40	83.68%	15.86%	+21.17	11-4
2012-12-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 34-37	1677.47	1572.60	57.40%	42.14%	-19.09	11-5
2012-09-09	Miami Dolphins	W 30-10	1545.05	1501.82	63.04%	36.50%	+31.39	1-0
2012-09-16	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-7	1576.44	1433.64	62.61%	36.92%	+31.76	2-0
2012-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	W 31-25	1608.20	1484.92	59.96%	39.58%	+18.64	3-0
2012-09-30	Tennessee Titans	W 38-14	1626.84	1443.50	79.12%	20.42%	+19.26	4-0
2012-10-08	@ New York Jets	W 23-17	1646.10	1461.00	68.08%	31.45%	+14.83	5-0
2012-10-14	Green Bay Packers	L 24-42	1660.93	1545.90	71.99%	27.54%	-58.63	5-1
2012-10-21	Baltimore Ravens	W 43-13	1602.30	1626.88	53.62%	45.92%	+48.33	6-1
2012-11-04	Buffalo Bills	W 21-9	1650.63	1438.00	81.72%	17.81%	+11.89	7-1
2012-11-11	@ Chicago Bears	W 13-6	1662.52	1650.16	44.18%	55.36%	+28.12	8-1
2012-11-18	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 43-37	1690.64	1275.66	93.20%	6.33%	+2.99	9-1
2012-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 34-31	1693.63	1477.49	71.80%	27.73%	+9.25	10-1
2012-12-02	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-10	1702.88	1428.56	78.00%	21.54%	+15.52	11-1
2012-12-10	@ New England Patriots	L 14-42	1718.40	1743.04	39.01%	60.53%	-39.69	11-2
2012-12-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 29-17	1678.71	1501.03	78.59%	20.95%	+13.98	12-2
2012-12-23	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-23	1692.69	1510.03	79.06%	20.48%	-62.57	12-3
2012-12-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 16-28	1630.12	1498.91	61.05%	38.49%	-13.53	12-4
2012-09-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-41	1426.08	1501.88	32.27%	67.27%	-27.77	0-1
2012-09-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1398.31	1462.22	47.97%	51.57%	+17.16	1-1
2012-09-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-22	1415.47	1401.88	59.00%	40.53%	-25.33	1-2
2012-10-07	Green Bay Packers	W 30-27	1390.14	1568.24	32.33%	67.21%	+22.34	2-2
2012-10-14	@ New York Jets	L 9-35	1412.48	1446.17	37.78%	61.76%	-37.04	2-3
2012-10-21	Cleveland Browns	W 17-13	1375.44	1398.85	53.78%	45.75%	+17.58	3-3
2012-10-28	@ Tennessee Titans	W 19-13	1393.02	1429.34	37.42%	62.11%	+29.21	4-3
2012-11-04	Miami Dolphins	W 23-20	1422.23	1558.43	37.81%	61.73%	+20.52	5-3
2012-11-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-10	1442.75	1305.53	61.86%	37.67%	+29.87	6-3
2012-11-18	@ New England Patriots	L 24-59	1472.62	1688.68	17.53%	82.01%	-19.97	6-4
2012-11-25	Buffalo Bills	W 20-13	1452.65	1439.46	58.95%	40.59%	+20.64	7-4
2012-12-02	@ Detroit Lions	W 35-33	1473.29	1468.24	43.14%	56.39%	+15.31	8-4
2012-12-09	Tennessee Titans	W 27-23	1488.60	1413.03	67.24%	32.30%	+12.43	9-4
2012-12-16	@ Houston Texans	L 17-29	1501.03	1678.71	20.95%	78.59%	-13.98	9-5
2012-12-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-13	1487.05	1230.05	76.26%	23.27%	+11.86	10-5
2012-12-30	Houston Texans	W 28-16	1498.91	1630.12	38.49%	61.05%	+13.53	11-5
2012-09-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 23-26	1447.75	1448.11	42.38%	57.15%	-14.11	0-1
2012-09-16	Houston Texans	L 7-27	1433.64	1576.44	36.92%	62.61%	-31.76	0-2
2012-09-23	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 22-17	1401.88	1415.47	40.53%	59.00%	+25.33	1-2
2012-09-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1427.21	1508.75	45.44%	54.10%	-36.00	1-3
2012-10-07	Chicago Bears	L 3-41	1391.21	1565.87	32.76%	66.77%	-38.86	1-4
2012-10-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 23-26	1352.35	1386.68	37.69%	61.85%	-12.55	1-5
2012-10-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 15-24	1339.80	1625.46	12.46%	87.08%	-7.21	1-6
2012-11-04	Detroit Lions	L 14-31	1332.59	1496.73	34.11%	65.43%	-27.06	1-7
2012-11-08	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-27	1305.53	1442.75	37.67%	61.86%	-29.87	1-8
2012-11-18	@ Houston Texans	L 37-43	1275.66	1690.64	6.33%	93.20%	-2.99	1-9
2012-11-25	Tennessee Titans	W 24-19	1272.67	1457.78	31.45%	68.08%	+29.22	2-9
2012-12-02	@ Buffalo Bills	L 18-34	1301.89	1418.82	27.33%	72.21%	-21.04	2-10
2012-12-09	New York Jets	L 10-17	1280.85	1427.65	36.39%	63.15%	-18.52	2-11
2012-12-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 3-24	1262.33	1428.92	22.03%	77.51%	-19.44	2-12
2012-12-23	New England Patriots	L 16-23	1242.89	1747.72	6.79%	92.75%	-3.46	2-13
2012-12-30	@ Tennessee Titans	L 20-38	1239.43	1398.23	22.81%	76.73%	-18.64	2-14
2012-09-09	Atlanta Falcons	L 24-40	1466.06	1521.44	49.19%	50.34%	-37.80	0-1
2012-09-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-35	1428.26	1424.95	42.90%	56.64%	-34.99	0-2
2012-09-23	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-24	1393.27	1523.79	25.80%	73.74%	+24.52	1-2
2012-09-30	San Diego Chargers	L 20-37	1417.79	1530.17	41.08%	58.45%	-32.57	1-3
2012-10-07	Baltimore Ravens	L 6-9	1385.22	1611.99	26.52%	73.01%	-8.84	1-4
2012-10-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-38	1376.38	1377.93	42.21%	57.32%	-42.94	1-5
2012-10-28	Oakland Raiders	L 16-26	1333.44	1399.24	47.69%	51.84%	-28.98	1-6
2012-11-01	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-31	1304.46	1484.57	20.72%	78.82%	-16.93	1-7
2012-11-12	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-16	1287.53	1600.21	10.86%	88.68%	-3.63	1-8
2012-11-18	Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-28	1283.90	1490.65	28.83%	70.71%	-26.03	1-9
2012-11-25	Denver Broncos	L 9-17	1257.87	1634.08	13.25%	86.29%	-7.22	1-10
2012-12-02	Carolina Panthers	W 27-21	1250.65	1404.96	35.39%	64.14%	+30.16	2-10
2012-12-09	@ Cleveland Browns	L 7-30	1280.81	1414.08	25.50%	74.04%	-23.54	2-11
2012-12-16	@ Oakland Raiders	L 0-15	1257.27	1300.15	36.54%	62.99%	-27.22	2-12
2012-12-23	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-20	1230.05	1487.05	23.27%	76.26%	-11.86	2-13
2012-12-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 3-38	1218.19	1715.64	4.04%	95.50%	-4.61	2-14
2012-09-09	@ Houston Texans	L 10-30	1501.82	1545.05	36.50%	63.04%	-31.39	0-1
2012-09-16	Oakland Raiders	W 35-13	1470.43	1446.11	60.48%	39.05%	+35.22	1-1
2012-09-23	New York Jets	L 20-23	1505.65	1495.32	58.55%	40.99%	-19.47	1-2
2012-09-30	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-24	1486.18	1557.70	32.81%	66.73%	-10.93	1-3
2012-10-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-13	1475.25	1544.75	33.07%	66.47%	+25.52	2-3
2012-10-14	St. Louis Rams	W 17-14	1500.77	1454.80	63.40%	36.13%	+12.03	3-3
2012-10-28	@ New York Jets	W 30-9	1512.80	1475.89	47.69%	51.85%	+45.63	4-3
2012-11-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-23	1558.43	1422.23	61.73%	37.81%	-20.52	4-4
2012-11-11	Tennessee Titans	L 3-37	1537.91	1370.99	77.54%	22.00%	-86.79	4-5
2012-11-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-19	1451.12	1419.29	46.96%	52.58%	-20.17	4-6
2012-11-25	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-21	1430.95	1549.73	40.20%	59.34%	+19.73	5-6
2012-12-02	New England Patriots	L 16-23	1450.68	1732.43	20.83%	78.71%	-10.61	5-7
2012-12-09	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-27	1440.07	1682.22	15.46%	84.08%	-11.15	5-8
2012-12-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-3	1428.92	1262.33	77.51%	22.03%	+19.44	6-8
2012-12-23	Buffalo Bills	W 24-10	1448.36	1383.73	65.85%	33.69%	+24.25	7-8
2012-12-30	@ New England Patriots	L 0-28	1472.61	1751.19	12.91%	86.62%	-13.17	7-9
2012-09-09	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 26-23	1448.11	1447.75	57.15%	42.38%	+14.11	1-0
2012-09-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-23	1462.22	1398.31	51.57%	47.97%	-17.16	1-1
2012-09-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-13	1445.06	1620.92	32.61%	66.93%	+42.61	2-1
2012-09-30	@ Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1487.67	1499.55	40.77%	58.77%	+29.85	3-1
2012-10-07	Tennessee Titans	W 30-7	1517.52	1424.23	69.43%	30.11%	+27.79	4-1
2012-10-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 26-38	1545.31	1434.75	58.20%	41.34%	-38.71	4-2
2012-10-21	Arizona Cardinals	W 21-14	1506.60	1498.83	58.19%	41.34%	+21.03	5-2
2012-10-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-36	1527.63	1398.98	73.53%	26.01%	-61.52	5-3
2012-11-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-30	1466.11	1500.19	37.73%	61.81%	-22.94	5-4
2012-11-11	Detroit Lions	W 34-24	1443.17	1523.79	45.57%	53.96%	+32.77	6-4
2012-11-25	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-28	1475.94	1584.31	28.32%	71.22%	-23.12	6-5
2012-12-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-23	1452.82	1607.50	23.23%	76.31%	-13.42	6-6
2012-12-09	Chicago Bears	W 21-14	1439.40	1575.71	37.80%	61.74%	+31.35	7-6
2012-12-16	@ St. Louis Rams	W 36-22	1470.75	1453.53	44.87%	54.67%	+39.28	8-6
2012-12-23	@ Houston Texans	W 23-6	1510.03	1692.69	20.48%	79.06%	+62.57	9-6
2012-12-30	Green Bay Packers	W 37-34	1572.60	1677.47	42.14%	57.40%	+19.09	10-6
2012-09-09	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-13	1602.39	1491.05	58.31%	41.23%	+36.32	1-0
2012-09-16	Arizona Cardinals	L 18-20	1638.71	1492.93	75.38%	24.15%	-20.46	1-1
2012-09-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 30-31	1618.25	1594.51	45.80%	53.74%	-8.80	1-2
2012-09-30	@ Buffalo Bills	W 52-28	1609.45	1490.43	59.37%	40.16%	+37.83	2-2
2012-10-07	Denver Broncos	W 31-21	1647.28	1506.61	74.84%	24.70%	+15.03	3-2
2012-10-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 23-24	1662.31	1524.15	61.99%	37.55%	-11.90	3-3
2012-10-21	New York Jets	W 29-26	1650.41	1483.22	77.57%	21.97%	+7.33	4-3
2012-10-28	St. Louis Rams	W 45-7	1657.74	1421.83	79.23%	20.31%	+24.11	5-3
2012-11-11	Buffalo Bills	W 37-31	1681.85	1426.12	85.07%	14.46%	+6.83	6-3
2012-11-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 59-24	1688.68	1472.62	82.01%	17.53%	+19.98	7-3
2012-11-22	@ New York Jets	W 49-19	1708.66	1444.42	77.00%	22.54%	+23.77	8-3
2012-12-02	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-16	1732.43	1450.68	78.71%	20.83%	+10.61	9-3
2012-12-10	Houston Texans	W 42-14	1743.04	1718.40	60.53%	39.01%	+39.70	10-3
2012-12-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 34-41	1782.74	1693.37	68.95%	30.59%	-35.02	10-4
2012-12-23	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-16	1747.72	1242.89	92.75%	6.79%	+3.47	11-4
2012-12-30	Miami Dolphins	W 28-0	1751.19	1472.61	86.62%	12.91%	+13.17	12-4
2012-09-09	Washington Redskins	L 32-40	1595.81	1442.47	76.17%	23.37%	-41.36	0-1
2012-09-16	@ Carolina Panthers	L 27-35	1554.45	1456.22	56.47%	43.07%	-30.66	0-2
2012-09-23	Kansas City Chiefs	L 24-27	1523.79	1393.27	73.74%	25.80%	-24.52	0-3
2012-09-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 27-28	1499.27	1561.70	33.97%	65.56%	-6.53	0-4
2012-10-07	San Diego Chargers	W 31-24	1492.74	1562.74	47.09%	52.44%	+26.65	1-4
2012-10-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 35-28	1519.39	1420.87	56.51%	43.03%	+21.88	2-4
2012-10-28	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-34	1541.27	1531.81	43.77%	55.77%	-37.62	2-5
2012-11-05	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-13	1503.65	1480.65	60.30%	39.24%	+29.22	3-5
2012-11-11	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-27	1532.87	1689.40	35.10%	64.44%	+24.73	4-5
2012-11-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 38-17	1557.60	1374.91	67.78%	31.75%	+28.00	5-5
2012-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-31	1585.60	1682.72	43.23%	56.31%	-26.27	5-6
2012-11-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-23	1559.33	1678.20	27.10%	72.43%	-16.50	5-7
2012-12-09	@ New York Giants	L 27-52	1542.83	1632.54	30.55%	68.99%	-29.39	5-8
2012-12-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-0	1513.44	1493.24	59.92%	39.62%	+48.78	6-8
2012-12-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-31	1562.22	1509.57	49.95%	49.59%	+16.49	7-8
2012-12-30	Carolina Panthers	L 38-44	1578.71	1499.43	67.70%	31.83%	-31.83	7-9
2012-09-05	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1568.40	1488.47	67.78%	31.75%	-34.43	0-1
2012-09-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 41-34	1533.97	1421.13	71.74%	27.80%	+14.16	1-1
2012-09-20	@ Carolina Panthers	W 36-7	1548.13	1486.88	51.19%	48.35%	+50.02	2-1
2012-09-30	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-19	1598.15	1524.44	52.98%	46.56%	-14.39	2-2
2012-10-07	Cleveland Browns	W 41-27	1583.76	1372.40	81.62%	17.92%	+12.92	3-2
2012-10-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 26-3	1596.68	1658.05	34.11%	65.42%	+60.23	4-2
2012-10-21	Washington Redskins	W 27-23	1656.91	1473.46	79.13%	20.41%	+7.86	5-2
2012-10-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 29-24	1664.77	1472.19	69.00%	30.53%	+13.13	6-2
2012-11-04	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-24	1677.90	1573.02	70.81%	28.72%	-27.18	6-3
2012-11-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-31	1650.72	1431.93	72.11%	27.43%	-58.72	6-4
2012-11-25	Green Bay Packers	W 38-10	1592.00	1660.59	47.29%	52.24%	+53.09	7-4
2012-12-03	@ Washington Redskins	L 16-17	1645.09	1481.07	65.41%	34.12%	-12.55	7-5
2012-12-09	New Orleans Saints	W 52-27	1632.54	1542.83	68.99%	30.55%	+29.39	8-5
2012-12-16	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 0-34	1661.93	1644.86	44.85%	54.69%	-50.26	8-6
2012-12-23	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-33	1611.67	1566.55	48.87%	50.67%	-40.92	8-7
2012-12-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 42-7	1570.75	1308.37	85.54%	14.00%	+15.96	9-7
2012-09-09	Buffalo Bills	W 48-28	1498.67	1456.46	62.90%	36.63%	+31.50	1-0
2012-09-16	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-27	1530.17	1519.23	43.98%	55.56%	-34.85	1-1
2012-09-23	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-20	1495.32	1505.65	40.99%	58.55%	+19.47	2-1
2012-09-30	San Francisco 49ers	L 0-34	1514.79	1578.31	48.02%	51.51%	-53.79	2-2
2012-10-08	Houston Texans	L 17-23	1461.00	1646.10	31.45%	68.08%	-14.83	2-3
2012-10-14	Indianapolis Colts	W 35-9	1446.17	1412.48	61.76%	37.78%	+37.05	3-3
2012-10-21	@ New England Patriots	L 26-29	1483.22	1650.41	21.97%	77.57%	-7.33	3-4
2012-10-28	Miami Dolphins	L 9-30	1475.89	1512.80	51.85%	47.69%	-45.63	3-5
2012-11-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-28	1430.26	1523.13	30.16%	69.38%	-26.60	3-6
2012-11-18	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-13	1403.66	1401.07	42.80%	56.74%	+40.76	4-6
2012-11-22	New England Patriots	L 19-49	1444.42	1708.66	22.54%	77.00%	-23.77	4-7
2012-12-02	Arizona Cardinals	W 7-6	1420.65	1376.82	63.12%	36.42%	+7.00	5-7
2012-12-09	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-10	1427.65	1280.85	63.15%	36.39%	+18.52	6-7
2012-12-17	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-14	1446.17	1400.60	48.93%	50.61%	-18.80	6-8
2012-12-23	San Diego Chargers	L 17-27	1427.37	1414.57	58.89%	40.64%	-35.76	6-9
2012-12-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 9-28	1391.61	1359.48	47.00%	52.53%	-39.36	6-10
2012-09-10	San Diego Chargers	L 14-22	1472.80	1528.70	49.12%	50.42%	-26.69	0-1
2012-09-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-35	1446.11	1470.43	39.05%	60.48%	-35.22	0-2
2012-09-23	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-31	1410.89	1554.08	36.87%	62.67%	+20.83	1-2
2012-09-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-37	1431.72	1466.28	37.66%	61.88%	-40.32	1-3
2012-10-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-23	1391.40	1651.81	14.13%	85.40%	-4.72	1-4
2012-10-21	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 26-23	1386.68	1352.35	61.85%	37.69%	+12.56	2-4
2012-10-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-16	1399.24	1333.44	51.84%	47.69%	+28.97	3-4
2012-11-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 32-42	1428.21	1460.50	52.51%	47.02%	-31.89	3-5
2012-11-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 20-55	1396.32	1597.62	18.79%	80.75%	-21.41	3-6
2012-11-18	New Orleans Saints	L 17-38	1374.91	1557.60	31.75%	67.78%	-28.00	3-7
2012-11-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-34	1346.91	1516.68	21.72%	77.82%	-20.49	3-8
2012-12-02	Cleveland Browns	L 17-20	1326.42	1398.51	46.79%	52.74%	-15.57	3-9
2012-12-06	Denver Broncos	L 13-26	1310.85	1656.54	15.40%	84.14%	-10.70	3-10
2012-12-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 15-0	1300.15	1257.27	62.99%	36.54%	+27.22	4-10
2012-12-23	@ Carolina Panthers	L 6-17	1327.37	1484.77	22.95%	76.59%	-14.66	4-11
2012-12-30	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-24	1312.71	1450.32	25.03%	74.51%	-8.35	4-12
2012-09-09	@ Cleveland Browns	W 17-16	1551.48	1438.91	58.48%	41.06%	+7.90	1-0
2012-09-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-23	1559.38	1603.88	50.76%	48.78%	+9.37	2-0
2012-09-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 6-27	1568.75	1513.39	50.34%	49.20%	-44.31	2-1
2012-09-30	New York Giants	W 19-17	1524.44	1598.15	46.56%	52.98%	+14.38	3-1
2012-10-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-16	1538.82	1533.25	43.22%	56.32%	-11.74	3-2
2012-10-14	Detroit Lions	L 23-26	1527.08	1469.70	64.91%	34.63%	-21.58	3-3
2012-10-28	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-30	1505.50	1656.53	35.83%	63.71%	-24.85	3-4
2012-11-05	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-28	1480.65	1503.65	39.24%	60.30%	-29.22	3-5
2012-11-11	Dallas Cowboys	L 23-38	1451.43	1451.02	57.16%	42.37%	-42.50	3-6
2012-11-18	@ Washington Redskins	L 6-31	1408.93	1407.31	42.66%	56.88%	-41.00	3-7
2012-11-26	Carolina Panthers	L 22-30	1367.93	1374.45	56.18%	43.35%	-30.51	3-8
2012-12-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 33-38	1337.42	1469.77	25.60%	73.94%	-11.02	3-9
2012-12-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-21	1326.40	1514.85	19.94%	79.59%	+21.60	4-9
2012-12-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-34	1348.00	1547.00	29.75%	69.78%	-26.24	4-10
2012-12-23	Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1321.76	1550.52	26.30%	73.23%	-13.39	4-11
2012-12-30	@ New York Giants	L 7-42	1308.37	1570.75	14.00%	85.54%	-15.96	4-12
2012-09-09	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-31	1556.20	1464.23	55.58%	43.96%	-36.97	0-1
2012-09-16	New York Jets	W 27-10	1519.23	1530.17	55.56%	43.98%	+34.85	1-1
2012-09-23	@ Oakland Raiders	L 31-34	1554.08	1410.89	62.67%	36.87%	-20.83	1-2
2012-10-07	Philadelphia Eagles	W 16-14	1533.25	1538.82	56.32%	43.22%	+11.75	2-2
2012-10-11	@ Tennessee Titans	L 23-26	1545.00	1396.44	63.38%	36.15%	-21.08	2-3
2012-10-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-17	1523.92	1479.87	48.71%	50.82%	+25.83	3-3
2012-10-28	Washington Redskins	W 27-12	1549.75	1465.60	68.31%	31.23%	+23.27	4-3
2012-11-04	@ New York Giants	W 24-20	1573.02	1677.90	28.72%	70.81%	+27.19	5-3
2012-11-12	Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-13	1600.21	1287.53	88.68%	10.86%	+3.62	6-3
2012-11-18	Baltimore Ravens	L 10-13	1603.83	1619.03	54.95%	44.58%	-18.27	6-4
2012-11-25	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-20	1585.56	1364.48	72.37%	27.17%	-34.03	6-5
2012-12-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1551.53	1648.23	29.70%	69.84%	+23.22	7-5
2012-12-09	San Diego Chargers	L 24-34	1574.75	1428.94	75.39%	24.15%	-45.76	7-6
2012-12-16	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-27	1528.99	1493.78	47.44%	52.09%	-15.79	7-7
2012-12-23	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-13	1513.20	1573.24	48.52%	51.01%	-16.14	7-8
2012-12-30	Cleveland Browns	W 24-10	1497.06	1390.78	70.98%	28.56%	+20.57	8-8
2012-09-10	@ Oakland Raiders	W 22-14	1528.70	1472.80	50.42%	49.12%	+26.69	1-0
2012-09-16	Tennessee Titans	W 38-10	1555.39	1454.72	70.31%	29.22%	+29.76	2-0
2012-09-23	Atlanta Falcons	L 3-27	1585.15	1575.52	58.45%	41.08%	-54.98	2-1
2012-09-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 37-20	1530.17	1417.79	58.45%	41.08%	+32.57	3-1
2012-10-07	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-31	1562.74	1492.74	52.44%	47.09%	-26.65	3-2
2012-10-15	Denver Broncos	L 24-35	1536.09	1491.57	63.21%	36.32%	-40.24	3-3
2012-10-28	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-7	1495.85	1381.27	58.76%	40.78%	-11.28	3-4
2012-11-01	Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-13	1484.57	1304.46	78.82%	20.72%	+16.93	4-4
2012-11-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-34	1501.50	1492.39	43.72%	55.82%	-26.57	4-5
2012-11-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-30	1474.93	1621.84	24.04%	75.50%	-12.24	4-6
2012-11-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-16	1462.69	1637.31	32.77%	66.77%	-10.92	4-7
2012-12-02	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-20	1451.77	1537.16	44.89%	54.65%	-22.83	4-8
2012-12-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-24	1428.94	1574.75	24.15%	75.39%	+45.76	5-8
2012-12-16	Carolina Panthers	L 7-31	1474.70	1424.64	63.95%	35.59%	-60.13	5-9
2012-12-23	@ New York Jets	W 27-17	1414.57	1427.37	40.64%	58.89%	+35.75	6-9
2012-12-30	Oakland Raiders	W 24-21	1450.32	1312.71	74.51%	25.03%	+8.35	7-9
2012-09-09	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-22	1571.09	1579.19	41.30%	58.24%	+31.62	1-0
2012-09-16	Detroit Lions	W 27-19	1602.71	1536.30	66.07%	33.46%	+18.21	2-0
2012-09-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-24	1620.92	1445.06	66.93%	32.61%	-42.61	2-1
2012-09-30	@ New York Jets	W 34-0	1578.31	1514.79	51.51%	48.02%	+53.80	3-1
2012-10-07	Buffalo Bills	W 45-3	1632.11	1452.60	78.76%	20.78%	+25.94	4-1
2012-10-14	New York Giants	L 3-26	1658.05	1596.68	65.42%	34.11%	-60.23	4-2
2012-10-18	Seattle Seahawks	W 13-6	1597.82	1536.05	65.48%	34.06%	+17.34	5-2
2012-10-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 24-3	1615.16	1477.80	61.88%	37.66%	+33.18	6-2
2012-11-11	St. Louis Rams	T 24-24	1648.34	1397.72	84.70%	14.83%	-3.35	6-2
2012-11-19	Chicago Bears	W 32-7	1644.99	1622.04	60.30%	39.24%	+37.73	7-2
2012-11-25	@ New Orleans Saints	W 31-21	1682.72	1585.60	56.31%	43.23%	+26.27	8-2
2012-12-02	@ St. Louis Rams	L 13-16	1708.99	1407.51	80.52%	19.02%	-26.77	8-3
2012-12-09	Miami Dolphins	W 27-13	1682.22	1440.07	84.08%	15.46%	+11.15	9-3
2012-12-16	@ New England Patriots	W 41-34	1693.37	1782.74	30.59%	68.95%	+35.01	10-3
2012-12-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-42	1728.38	1627.39	56.85%	42.68%	-58.78	10-4
2012-12-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-13	1669.60	1369.09	87.98%	11.56%	+8.33	11-4
2012-09-09	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 16-20	1499.34	1475.31	45.84%	53.69%	-17.62	0-1
2012-09-16	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-7	1481.72	1522.89	51.24%	48.30%	+41.50	1-1
2012-09-24	Green Bay Packers	W 14-12	1523.22	1575.25	49.67%	49.86%	+13.54	2-1
2012-09-30	@ St. Louis Rams	L 13-19	1536.76	1377.70	64.77%	34.77%	-30.45	2-2
2012-10-07	@ Carolina Panthers	W 16-12	1506.31	1431.56	53.13%	46.41%	+17.84	3-2
2012-10-14	New England Patriots	W 24-23	1524.15	1662.31	37.55%	61.99%	+11.90	4-2
2012-10-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 6-13	1536.05	1597.82	34.06%	65.48%	-17.34	4-3
2012-10-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-28	1518.71	1478.21	48.20%	51.33%	-18.52	4-4
2012-11-04	Minnesota Vikings	W 30-20	1500.19	1466.11	61.81%	37.73%	+22.94	5-4
2012-11-11	New York Jets	W 28-7	1523.13	1430.26	69.38%	30.16%	+26.60	6-4
2012-11-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 21-24	1549.73	1430.95	59.34%	40.20%	-19.73	6-5
2012-12-02	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-17	1530.00	1607.43	32.06%	67.47%	+31.72	7-5
2012-12-09	Arizona Cardinals	W 58-0	1561.72	1369.82	79.91%	19.63%	+28.80	8-5
2012-12-16	@ Buffalo Bills	W 50-17	1590.52	1420.61	66.17%	33.37%	+36.87	9-5
2012-12-23	San Francisco 49ers	W 42-13	1627.39	1728.38	42.68%	56.85%	+58.79	10-5
2012-12-30	St. Louis Rams	W 20-13	1686.18	1459.82	82.85%	16.69%	+8.50	11-5
2012-09-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-27	1391.65	1526.55	25.32%	74.22%	-9.75	0-1
2012-09-16	Washington Redskins	W 31-28	1381.90	1483.83	42.55%	56.99%	+18.95	1-1
2012-09-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-23	1400.85	1501.96	29.17%	70.37%	-23.15	1-2
2012-09-30	Seattle Seahawks	W 19-13	1377.70	1536.76	34.77%	64.77%	+30.45	2-2
2012-10-04	Arizona Cardinals	W 17-3	1408.15	1568.64	34.59%	64.95%	+46.65	3-2
2012-10-14	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-17	1454.80	1500.77	36.13%	63.40%	-12.04	3-3
2012-10-21	Green Bay Packers	L 20-30	1442.76	1604.52	34.42%	65.12%	-20.93	3-4
2012-10-28	@ New England Patriots	L 7-45	1421.83	1657.74	20.31%	79.23%	-24.11	3-5
2012-11-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	T 24-24	1397.72	1648.34	14.83%	84.70%	+3.35	3-5
2012-11-18	New York Jets	L 13-27	1401.07	1403.66	56.74%	42.80%	-40.76	3-6
2012-11-25	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 31-17	1360.31	1424.03	33.81%	65.73%	+47.20	4-6
2012-12-02	San Francisco 49ers	W 16-13	1407.51	1708.99	19.02%	80.52%	+26.77	5-6
2012-12-09	@ Buffalo Bills	W 15-12	1434.28	1439.86	41.65%	57.89%	+19.25	6-6
2012-12-16	Minnesota Vikings	L 22-36	1453.53	1470.75	54.67%	44.87%	-39.27	6-7
2012-12-23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 28-13	1414.26	1444.46	38.25%	61.29%	+45.56	7-7
2012-12-30	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-20	1459.82	1686.18	16.69%	82.85%	-8.51	7-8
2012-09-09	Carolina Panthers	W 16-10	1395.34	1482.00	44.71%	54.83%	+25.79	1-0
2012-09-16	@ New York Giants	L 34-41	1421.13	1533.97	27.80%	71.74%	-14.16	1-1
2012-09-23	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 10-16	1406.97	1481.39	32.44%	67.09%	-15.29	1-2
2012-09-30	Washington Redskins	L 22-24	1391.68	1437.02	50.64%	48.90%	-13.75	1-3
2012-10-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-10	1377.93	1376.38	57.32%	42.21%	+42.94	2-3
2012-10-21	New Orleans Saints	L 28-35	1420.87	1519.39	43.03%	56.51%	-21.89	2-4
2012-10-25	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 36-17	1398.98	1527.63	26.01%	73.53%	+61.52	3-4
2012-11-04	@ Oakland Raiders	W 42-32	1460.50	1428.21	47.02%	52.51%	+31.89	4-4
2012-11-11	San Diego Chargers	W 34-24	1492.39	1501.50	55.82%	43.72%	+26.57	5-4
2012-11-18	@ Carolina Panthers	W 27-21	1518.96	1392.91	60.34%	39.19%	+18.46	6-4
2012-11-25	Atlanta Falcons	L 23-24	1537.42	1670.85	38.19%	61.35%	-7.34	6-5
2012-12-02	@ Denver Broncos	L 23-31	1530.08	1641.30	27.98%	71.55%	-15.23	6-6
2012-12-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-23	1514.85	1326.40	79.59%	19.94%	-21.61	6-7
2012-12-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 0-41	1493.24	1513.44	39.62%	59.92%	-48.78	6-8
2012-12-23	St. Louis Rams	L 13-28	1444.46	1414.26	61.29%	38.25%	-45.56	6-9
2012-12-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 22-17	1398.90	1707.74	11.08%	88.46%	+12.66	7-9
2012-09-09	New England Patriots	L 13-34	1491.05	1602.39	41.23%	58.31%	-36.33	0-1
2012-09-16	@ San Diego Chargers	L 10-38	1454.72	1555.39	29.22%	70.31%	-29.76	0-2
2012-09-23	Detroit Lions	W 44-41	1424.96	1518.09	43.79%	55.74%	+18.54	1-2
2012-09-30	@ Houston Texans	L 14-38	1443.50	1626.84	20.42%	79.12%	-19.27	1-3
2012-10-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 7-30	1424.23	1517.52	30.11%	69.43%	-27.79	1-4
2012-10-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-23	1396.44	1545.00	36.15%	63.38%	+21.08	2-4
2012-10-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 35-34	1417.52	1449.82	37.97%	61.57%	+11.82	3-4
2012-10-28	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-19	1429.34	1393.02	62.11%	37.42%	-29.21	3-5
2012-11-04	Chicago Bears	L 20-51	1400.13	1621.02	27.19%	72.35%	-29.14	3-6
2012-11-11	@ Miami Dolphins	W 37-3	1370.99	1537.91	22.00%	77.54%	+86.79	4-6
2012-11-25	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 19-24	1457.78	1272.67	68.08%	31.45%	-29.22	4-7
2012-12-02	Houston Texans	L 10-24	1428.56	1702.88	21.54%	78.00%	-15.53	4-8
2012-12-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 23-27	1413.03	1488.60	32.30%	67.24%	-12.43	4-9
2012-12-17	New York Jets	W 14-10	1400.60	1446.17	50.61%	48.93%	+18.80	5-9
2012-12-23	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-55	1419.40	1656.30	15.86%	83.68%	-21.17	5-10
2012-12-30	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 38-20	1398.23	1239.43	76.73%	22.81%	+18.64	6-10
2012-09-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 40-32	1442.47	1595.81	23.37%	76.17%	+41.36	1-0
2012-09-16	@ St. Louis Rams	L 28-31	1483.83	1381.90	56.99%	42.55%	-18.96	1-1
2012-09-23	Cincinnati Bengals	L 31-38	1464.87	1480.89	54.84%	44.70%	-27.85	1-2
2012-09-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-22	1437.02	1391.68	48.90%	50.64%	+13.75	2-2
2012-10-07	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-24	1450.77	1635.80	31.46%	68.07%	-16.02	2-3
2012-10-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-26	1434.75	1545.31	41.34%	58.20%	+38.71	3-3
2012-10-21	@ New York Giants	L 23-27	1473.46	1656.91	20.41%	79.13%	-7.86	3-4
2012-10-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-27	1465.60	1549.75	31.23%	68.31%	-23.28	3-5
2012-11-04	Carolina Panthers	L 13-21	1442.32	1388.19	64.48%	35.05%	-35.01	3-6
2012-11-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 31-6	1407.31	1408.93	56.88%	42.66%	+41.00	4-6
2012-11-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 38-31	1448.31	1502.52	35.04%	64.49%	+32.76	5-6
2012-12-03	New York Giants	W 17-16	1481.07	1645.09	34.12%	65.41%	+12.55	6-6
2012-12-09	Baltimore Ravens	W 31-28	1493.62	1625.01	38.47%	61.07%	+20.31	7-6
2012-12-16	@ Cleveland Browns	W 38-21	1513.93	1437.62	53.35%	46.19%	+36.59	8-6
2012-12-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1550.52	1321.76	73.23%	26.30%	+13.40	9-6
2012-12-30	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-18	1563.92	1493.07	66.64%	32.90%	+20.01	10-6

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2013-01-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-28	1695.08	1719.80	53.83%	46.17%	+12.49	1-0
2013-01-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-28	1707.57	1708.91	57.15%	42.85%	-21.86	1-1
2013-01-06	Indianapolis Colts	W 24-9	1600.41	1512.44	69.04%	30.96%	+22.93	1-0
2013-01-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 38-35	1623.34	1720.25	29.87%	70.13%	+23.22	2-0
2013-01-20	@ New England Patriots	W 28-13	1646.56	1782.37	25.40%	74.60%	+55.25	3-0
2013-02-03	San Francisco 49ers	W 34-31	1701.81	1730.76	45.84%	54.16%	+17.93	4-0
2013-01-05	@ Houston Texans	L 13-19	1596.44	1616.59	39.85%	60.15%	-18.66	0-1
2013-01-12	Baltimore Ravens	L 35-38	1720.25	1623.34	70.13%	29.87%	-23.23	0-1
2013-01-05	Minnesota Vikings	W 24-10	1658.38	1591.69	66.37%	33.63%	+24.06	1-0
2013-01-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 31-45	1682.44	1677.93	43.30%	56.70%	-30.97	1-1
2013-01-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 19-13	1616.59	1596.44	60.15%	39.85%	+18.66	1-0
2013-01-13	@ New England Patriots	L 28-41	1635.25	1764.36	26.14%	73.86%	-18.01	1-1
2013-01-06	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 9-24	1512.44	1600.41	30.96%	69.04%	-22.92	0-1
2013-01-05	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-24	1591.69	1658.38	33.63%	66.37%	-24.06	0-1
2013-01-13	Houston Texans	W 41-28	1764.36	1635.25	73.86%	26.14%	+18.01	1-0
2013-01-20	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-28	1782.37	1646.56	74.60%	25.40%	-55.24	1-1
2013-01-12	Green Bay Packers	W 45-31	1677.93	1682.44	56.70%	43.30%	+30.98	1-0
2013-01-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 28-24	1708.91	1707.57	42.85%	57.15%	+21.85	2-0
2013-02-03	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 31-34	1730.76	1701.81	54.16%	45.84%	-17.93	2-1
2013-01-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-14	1694.68	1583.93	58.46%	41.54%	+25.12	1-0
2013-01-13	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 28-30	1719.80	1695.08	46.17%	53.83%	-12.49	1-1
2013-01-06	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-24	1583.93	1694.68	41.54%	58.46%	-25.11	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2012-12-30	11.08%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1398.90	22	@ Atlanta Falcons	1707.74	17
2	2012-12-09	17.44%	@ Carolina Panthers	1374.80	30	Atlanta Falcons	1694.70	20
3	2012-12-02	19.02%	@ St. Louis Rams	1407.51	16	San Francisco 49ers	1708.99	13
4	2012-12-09	19.94%	Philadelphia Eagles	1326.40	23	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1514.85	21
5	2012-12-23	20.48%	Minnesota Vikings	1510.03	23	@ Houston Texans	1692.69	6
6	2012-11-11	22.00%	Tennessee Titans	1370.99	37	@ Miami Dolphins	1537.91	3
7	2012-09-09	23.37%	Washington Redskins	1442.47	40	@ New Orleans Saints	1595.81	32
8	2012-09-16	24.15%	Arizona Cardinals	1492.93	20	@ New England Patriots	1638.71	18
9	2012-12-09	24.15%	San Diego Chargers	1428.94	34	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1574.75	24
10	2013-01-20 *	25.40%	Baltimore Ravens	1646.56	28	@ New England Patriots	1782.37	13
11	2012-09-23	25.80%	Kansas City Chiefs	1393.27	27	@ New Orleans Saints	1523.79	24
12	2012-10-25	26.01%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1398.98	36	@ Minnesota Vikings	1527.63	17
13	2012-11-25	27.17%	@ Cleveland Browns	1364.48	20	Pittsburgh Steelers	1585.56	14
14	2012-11-11	27.43%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1431.93	31	New York Giants	1650.72	13
15	2012-10-14	27.54%	Green Bay Packers	1545.90	42	@ Houston Texans	1660.93	24
16	2012-11-04	28.72%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1573.02	24	@ New York Giants	1677.90	20
17	2012-12-02	29.70%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1551.53	23	@ Baltimore Ravens	1648.23	20
18	2012-10-14	29.86%	Buffalo Bills	1426.66	19	@ Arizona Cardinals	1521.99	16
19	2013-01-12 *	29.87%	Baltimore Ravens	1623.34	38	@ Denver Broncos	1720.25	35
20	2012-12-16	30.59%	San Francisco 49ers	1693.37	41	@ New England Patriots	1782.74	34
21	2012-11-25	31.45%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1272.67	24	Tennessee Titans	1457.78	19
22	2012-09-05	31.75%	Dallas Cowboys	1488.47	24	@ New York Giants	1568.40	17
23	2012-12-30	31.83%	Carolina Panthers	1499.43	44	@ New Orleans Saints	1578.71	38
24	2012-12-09	31.84%	Dallas Cowboys	1480.79	20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1559.99	19
25	2012-12-02	32.06%	Seattle Seahawks	1530.00	23	@ Chicago Bears	1607.43	17

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2012-11-11	86.79	Tennessee Titans	37	1370.99	22.00%	@ Miami Dolphins	3	1537.91	77.54%
2	2012-12-23	62.57	Minnesota Vikings	23	1510.03	20.48%	@ Houston Texans	6	1692.69	79.06%
3	2012-10-25	61.52	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	36	1398.98	26.01%	@ Minnesota Vikings	17	1527.63	73.53%
4	2012-10-14	60.23	New York Giants	26	1596.68	34.11%	@ San Francisco 49ers	3	1658.05	65.42%
5	2012-12-16	60.13	Carolina Panthers	31	1424.64	35.59%	@ San Diego Chargers	7	1474.70	63.95%
6	2012-12-23	58.79	@ Seattle Seahawks	42	1627.39	42.68%	San Francisco 49ers	13	1728.38	56.85%
7	2012-11-11	58.72	@ Cincinnati Bengals	31	1431.93	27.43%	New York Giants	13	1650.72	72.11%
8	2012-10-14	58.63	Green Bay Packers	42	1545.90	27.54%	@ Houston Texans	24	1660.93	71.99%
9	2012-12-16	57.73	@ Arizona Cardinals	38	1341.02	42.72%	Detroit Lions	10	1441.78	56.82%
10	2013-01-20 *	55.25	Baltimore Ravens	28	1646.56	25.40%	@ New England Patriots	13	1782.37	74.60%
11	2012-09-23	54.98	Atlanta Falcons	27	1575.52	41.08%	@ San Diego Chargers	3	1585.15	58.45%
12	2012-09-30	53.80	San Francisco 49ers	34	1578.31	51.51%	@ New York Jets	0	1514.79	48.02%
13	2012-11-25	53.09	@ New York Giants	38	1592.00	47.29%	Green Bay Packers	10	1660.59	52.24%
14	2012-12-16	50.26	@ Atlanta Falcons	34	1644.86	54.69%	New York Giants	0	1661.93	44.85%
15	2012-09-20	50.02	New York Giants	36	1548.13	51.19%	@ Carolina Panthers	7	1486.88	48.35%
16	2012-12-09	49.84	@ Carolina Panthers	30	1374.80	17.44%	Atlanta Falcons	20	1694.70	82.10%
17	2012-12-16	48.78	@ New Orleans Saints	41	1513.44	59.92%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0	1493.24	39.62%
18	2012-10-21	48.33	@ Houston Texans	43	1602.30	53.62%	Baltimore Ravens	13	1626.88	45.92%
19	2012-11-25	47.21	St. Louis Rams	31	1360.31	33.81%	@ Arizona Cardinals	17	1424.03	65.73%
20	2012-10-04	46.65	@ St. Louis Rams	17	1408.15	34.59%	Arizona Cardinals	3	1568.64	64.95%
21	2012-12-09	45.76	San Diego Chargers	34	1428.94	24.15%	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	24	1574.75	75.39%
22	2012-10-28	45.63	Miami Dolphins	30	1512.80	47.69%	@ New York Jets	9	1475.89	51.85%
23	2012-12-23	45.56	St. Louis Rams	28	1414.26	38.25%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	13	1444.46	61.29%
24	2012-09-23	44.31	@ Arizona Cardinals	27	1513.39	49.20%	Philadelphia Eagles	6	1568.75	50.34%
25	2012-10-14	42.94	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	38	1377.93	57.32%	Kansas City Chiefs	10	1376.38	42.21%