2013 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Seattle Seahawks

1st Super Bowl

Runner-Up

Denver Broncos

7th SB App.

Last Appearance: 1998

Biggest Overachiever

Arizona Cardinals

2.52 wins above expected

10 wins · 7.48 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Houston Texans

4.33 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.33 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	12	4	.750	—	444	338	+106	10.69	+1.31
2	Miami Dolphins	8	8	.500	4	317	335	-18	8.11	-0.11
3	New York Jets	8	8	.500	4	290	387	-97	6.13	+1.87
4	Buffalo Bills	6	10	.375	6	339	388	-49	6.20	-0.20

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	11	5	.688	—	430	305	+125	9.66	+1.34
2	Baltimore Ravens	8	8	.500	3	320	352	-32	8.99	-0.99
3	Pittsburgh Steelers	8	8	.500	3	379	370	+9	7.57	+0.43
4	Cleveland Browns	4	12	.250	7	308	406	-98	6.07	-2.07

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	11	5	.688	—	391	336	+55	9.08	+1.92
2	Tennessee Titans	7	9	.438	4	362	381	-19	7.71	-0.71
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	4	12	.250	7	247	449	-202	4.51	-0.51
4	Houston Texans	2	14	.125	9	276	428	-152	6.33	-4.33

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	13	3	.812	—	606	399	+207	11.86	+1.14
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	11	5	.688	2	430	305	+125	9.57	+1.43
3	San Diego Chargers Playoffs	9	7	.562	4	396	348	+48	7.75	+1.25
4	Oakland Raiders	4	12	.250	9	322	453	-131	5.75	-1.75

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Philadelphia Eagles Division	10	6	.625	—	442	382	+60	7.84	+2.16
2	Dallas Cowboys	8	8	.500	2	439	432	+7	8.79	-0.79
3	New York Giants	7	9	.438	3	294	383	-89	7.07	-0.07
4	Washington Redskins	3	13	.188	7	334	478	-144	6.40	-3.40

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	8	7	1	.531	—	417	428	-11	8.99	-0.49
2	Chicago Bears	8	8	0	.500	0.5	445	478	-33	8.94	-0.94
3	Detroit Lions	7	9	0	.438	1.5	395	376	+19	8.16	-1.16
4	Minnesota Vikings	5	10	1	.344	3	391	480	-89	6.12	-0.62

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Carolina Panthers Division	12	4	.750	—	366	241	+125	9.83	+2.17
2	New Orleans Saints Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	414	304	+110	9.73	+1.27
3	Atlanta Falcons	4	12	.250	8	353	443	-90	6.91	-2.91
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4	12	.250	8	288	389	-101	5.37	-1.37

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	13	3	.812	—	417	231	+186	11.55	+1.45
2	San Francisco 49ers Playoffs	12	4	.750	1	406	272	+134	10.13	+1.87
3	Arizona Cardinals	10	6	.625	3	379	324	+55	7.48	+2.52
4	St. Louis Rams	7	9	.438	6	348	364	-16	6.71	+0.29

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Indianapolis Colts 45

Kansas City Chiefs 44

Jan 4

San Diego Chargers 27

Cincinnati Bengals 10

Jan 5

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 43

Indianapolis Colts 22

Jan 11

Denver Broncos 24

San Diego Chargers 17

Jan 12

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 26

New England Patriots 16

Jan 19

NFC

Wild Card Round

New Orleans Saints 26

Philadelphia Eagles 24

Jan 4

San Francisco 49ers 23

Green Bay Packers 20

Jan 5

Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks 23

New Orleans Saints 15

Jan 11

San Francisco 49ers 23

Carolina Panthers 10

Jan 12

Conference Championship

Seattle Seahawks 23

San Francisco 49ers 17

Jan 19

Super Bowl

Seattle Seahawks 43

Denver Broncos 8

Feb 2

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1746	13	11.55	+1.45	88.19%	4	9	10	12	13	14	16
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1734	12	10.13	+1.87	91.01%	4	7	9	10	11	13	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1714	13	11.86	+1.14	84.67%	5	9	11	12	13	14	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1708	12	10.69	+1.31	85.28%	3	8	10	11	12	13	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1669	12	9.83	+2.17	92.92%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1649	11	9.66	+1.34	83.60%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1635	11	9.73	+1.27	83.95%	2	7	9	10	11	13	16
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1621	10	7.48	+2.52	94.45%	1	4	6	7	9	11	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1596	10	7.84	+2.16	92.36%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1576	11	9.08	+1.92	91.46%	3	6	8	9	10	12	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1569	9	7.75	+1.25	83.04%	1	5	6	8	9	11	14
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1565	8	7.57	+0.43	69.69%	1	4	6	8	9	11	15
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1552	11	9.57	+1.43	86.01%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1537	7	6.71	+0.29	67.84%	1	4	5	7	8	10	13
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1494	8	8.99	-0.99	40.69%	1	6	8	9	10	12	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1488	8	8.79	-0.79	44.23%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1468	8.5	8.99	-0.49	39.97%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1463	7	7.07	-0.07	60.03%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1458	7	8.16	-1.16	37.39%	1	5	7	8	9	11	16
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1456	8	8.94	-0.94	41.27%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1450	8	8.11	-0.11	58.40%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1441	7	7.71	-0.71	46.49%	2	5	6	8	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1435	6	6.20	-0.20	57.95%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1432	5.5	6.12	-0.62	38.06%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1427	8	6.13	+1.87	90.73%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1384	4	6.91	-2.91	8.99%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1380	4	5.37	-1.37	33.42%	0	3	4	5	7	8	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1295	4	6.07	-2.07	20.02%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1289	3	6.40	-3.40	6.06%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1264	4	5.75	-1.75	24.87%	0	3	5	6	7	9	12
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1261	4	4.51	-0.51	52.16%	0	2	3	4	6	7	12
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1242	2	6.33	-4.33	1.05%	1	3	5	6	7	9	13

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
New York Jets	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—
Miami Dolphins	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—
New England Patriots	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—
New York Jets	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—
Cleveland Browns	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	—	0-4 (1.7 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—	—	—	0-4 (0.7 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.4 exp.)

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (3.3 exp.)	4-0 (2.9 exp.)	—	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—
Oakland Raiders	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—
San Diego Chargers	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-3 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	3-1 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-0-1 (1.5 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-2 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (1.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.7 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	4-0 (2.9 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Arizona Cardinals	10	7.48	+2.52
2	Carolina Panthers	12	9.83	+2.17
3	Philadelphia Eagles	10	7.84	+2.16
4	Indianapolis Colts	11	9.08	+1.92
5	New York Jets	8	6.13	+1.87

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Houston Texans	2	6.33	-4.33
2	Washington Redskins	3	6.40	-3.40
3	Atlanta Falcons	4	6.91	-2.91
4	Cleveland Browns	4	6.07	-2.07
5	Oakland Raiders	4	5.75	-1.75

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kansas City Chiefs	9	Sep 8 – Nov 3	1 in 124
2	Carolina Panthers	8	Oct 13 – Dec 1	1 in 58
3	Philadelphia Eagles	5	Nov 3 – Dec 8	1 in 47
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	Nov 24 – Dec 5	1 in 28
5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3	Nov 11 – Nov 24	1 in 24

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Houston Texans	14	Sep 22 – Dec 29	1 in 1,678
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	8	Sep 8 – Nov 3	1 in 51
3	Washington Redskins	8	Nov 7 – Dec 29	1 in 43
4	Green Bay Packers	3	Nov 4 – Nov 17	1 in 38
5	Cleveland Browns	7	Nov 17 – Dec 29	1 in 36

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	78.12%	17.06%	3.83%	0.99%
Miami Dolphins	16.22%	48.79%	24.13%	10.86%
Buffalo Bills	3.07%	16.94%	36.13%	43.86%
New York Jets	2.59%	17.21%	35.91%	44.29%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cincinnati Bengals	51.30%	29.36%	14.37%	4.97%
Baltimore Ravens	32.48%	36.67%	22.24%	8.61%
Pittsburgh Steelers	12.83%	24.39%	39.02%	23.76%
Cleveland Browns	3.39%	9.58%	24.37%	62.66%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	63.39%	25.51%	9.62%	1.48%
Tennessee Titans	27.05%	42.58%	23.56%	6.81%
Houston Texans	8.13%	25.47%	44.66%	21.74%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.43%	6.44%	22.16%	69.97%

Team	1	2	3	4
Denver Broncos	77.42%	18.92%	3.36%	0.30%
Kansas City Chiefs	18.07%	54.27%	22.86%	4.80%
San Diego Chargers	4.12%	22.75%	53.53%	19.60%
Oakland Raiders	0.39%	4.06%	20.25%	75.30%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	47.11%	26.77%	17.43%	8.69%
Philadelphia Eagles	27.43%	29.86%	24.92%	17.79%
New York Giants	16.41%	25.90%	29.38%	28.31%
Washington Redskins	9.05%	17.47%	28.27%	45.21%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	38.31%	30.78%	21.85%	9.06%
Chicago Bears	36.22%	30.91%	22.88%	9.99%
Detroit Lions	21.16%	28.00%	31.47%	19.37%
Minnesota Vikings	4.31%	10.31%	23.80%	61.58%

Team	1	2	3	4
Carolina Panthers	49.98%	36.86%	10.76%	2.40%
New Orleans Saints	43.80%	41.02%	12.00%	3.18%
Atlanta Falcons	5.03%	16.64%	52.10%	26.23%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1.19%	5.48%	25.14%	68.19%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	67.00%	25.99%	5.98%	1.03%
San Francisco 49ers	27.92%	49.60%	17.07%	5.41%
Arizona Cardinals	3.50%	15.26%	42.92%	38.32%
St. Louis Rams	1.58%	9.15%	34.03%	55.24%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Denver Broncos	46.54%	22.14%	12.55%	7.27%	4.38%	2.85%	1.96%	0.95%	0.63%	0.38%	0.18%	0.12%	0.02%	0.03%	—	—
New England Patriots	20.59%	22.67%	17.70%	12.08%	8.33%	5.90%	4.40%	2.78%	1.96%	1.43%	0.88%	0.54%	0.39%	0.21%	0.12%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.74%	14.63%	14.66%	12.04%	10.55%	9.28%	7.81%	5.43%	4.73%	3.65%	3.27%	1.98%	1.49%	1.02%	0.52%	0.20%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.34%	9.63%	10.72%	12.72%	13.25%	11.09%	9.33%	6.83%	5.52%	4.35%	3.14%	2.08%	1.40%	0.92%	0.40%	0.28%
Indianapolis Colts	4.76%	8.23%	12.57%	13.96%	12.23%	10.07%	9.12%	7.98%	6.20%	4.78%	3.59%	2.94%	1.68%	1.01%	0.61%	0.27%
Baltimore Ravens	5.26%	8.81%	9.44%	10.15%	10.94%	10.20%	9.78%	8.69%	6.67%	5.83%	4.78%	3.31%	2.60%	1.84%	1.18%	0.52%
Miami Dolphins	1.88%	4.49%	5.70%	7.07%	8.62%	10.00%	10.67%	9.91%	8.86%	7.47%	7.42%	5.59%	4.42%	3.59%	2.93%	1.38%
Tennessee Titans	0.99%	2.68%	4.59%	6.98%	7.71%	8.81%	8.93%	10.71%	9.52%	8.97%	7.97%	7.34%	5.88%	4.00%	2.93%	1.99%
San Diego Chargers	1.31%	2.30%	3.55%	5.33%	6.84%	7.91%	8.56%	9.31%	10.84%	10.46%	9.51%	7.48%	6.11%	5.19%	3.09%	2.21%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.10%	2.64%	4.11%	5.32%	6.06%	7.34%	8.24%	9.27%	8.99%	10.10%	8.86%	8.05%	6.37%	5.82%	4.63%	3.10%
Houston Texans	0.12%	0.47%	1.08%	1.80%	2.81%	3.77%	4.90%	7.55%	7.85%	8.80%	10.45%	12.31%	10.98%	9.75%	9.23%	8.13%
Buffalo Bills	0.17%	0.39%	1.02%	1.79%	2.44%	3.64%	4.44%	5.34%	6.85%	7.93%	9.62%	10.89%	10.86%	11.58%	12.39%	10.65%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.30%	0.93%	1.36%	2.03%	3.57%	4.41%	5.54%	7.41%	8.65%	9.19%	10.17%	12.59%	11.52%	12.21%	10.07%
Cleveland Browns	0.11%	0.45%	0.96%	1.25%	2.25%	2.96%	3.91%	4.40%	6.45%	7.53%	8.05%	10.06%	13.48%	14.28%	13.68%	10.18%
Oakland Raiders	0.03%	0.16%	0.38%	0.68%	1.10%	2.01%	2.45%	3.77%	5.17%	6.56%	8.35%	10.16%	12.93%	15.88%	16.60%	13.77%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.20%	0.46%	0.60%	1.09%	1.54%	2.35%	3.11%	4.74%	6.98%	8.80%	13.36%	19.48%	37.23%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Seattle Seahawks	41.72%	19.61%	12.14%	7.94%	6.16%	4.41%	2.85%	1.90%	1.17%	0.92%	0.52%	0.27%	0.21%	0.12%	0.04%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	15.59%	12.41%	12.73%	12.09%	10.74%	8.71%	7.33%	5.65%	4.19%	3.65%	2.26%	1.90%	1.34%	0.72%	0.48%	0.21%
Carolina Panthers	12.27%	14.54%	12.10%	10.98%	9.87%	8.85%	8.15%	6.77%	4.69%	3.59%	2.76%	2.07%	1.40%	0.98%	0.65%	0.33%
New Orleans Saints	10.21%	13.94%	11.72%	11.78%	10.56%	9.34%	8.10%	6.56%	5.33%	3.84%	2.70%	1.98%	1.80%	0.90%	0.81%	0.43%
Green Bay Packers	4.81%	8.70%	10.67%	9.71%	9.36%	9.09%	8.57%	7.96%	7.16%	6.12%	5.05%	4.21%	3.41%	2.58%	1.68%	0.92%
Chicago Bears	4.88%	8.61%	9.48%	9.75%	8.96%	9.45%	8.63%	7.55%	7.29%	6.36%	4.90%	4.77%	3.29%	2.91%	2.07%	1.10%
Dallas Cowboys	3.90%	7.37%	9.53%	10.26%	9.82%	9.40%	8.40%	7.90%	6.94%	6.15%	5.68%	4.65%	3.50%	2.90%	2.30%	1.30%
Detroit Lions	2.29%	4.38%	6.23%	5.96%	7.35%	7.81%	8.64%	8.32%	7.96%	8.23%	7.62%	6.75%	6.32%	5.01%	4.20%	2.93%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.38%	3.60%	5.01%	6.15%	6.88%	7.64%	7.96%	8.60%	8.53%	7.62%	7.90%	7.44%	7.23%	5.50%	4.50%	4.06%
Arizona Cardinals	1.23%	1.93%	2.46%	3.83%	4.60%	5.45%	6.32%	7.65%	8.43%	9.44%	9.30%	9.32%	9.32%	8.39%	7.05%	5.28%
New York Giants	0.54%	1.63%	2.83%	3.59%	4.49%	5.26%	5.97%	7.77%	8.00%	8.13%	8.90%	9.52%	8.66%	8.81%	8.59%	7.31%
Atlanta Falcons	0.33%	1.03%	1.38%	2.35%	3.17%	4.16%	5.43%	6.29%	8.08%	9.41%	10.86%	11.78%	10.27%	9.16%	8.50%	7.80%
St. Louis Rams	0.47%	0.72%	1.07%	1.99%	2.82%	3.35%	4.31%	5.35%	7.30%	8.16%	9.36%	10.00%	11.56%	12.68%	11.60%	9.26%
Washington Redskins	0.31%	0.81%	1.36%	2.01%	2.57%	3.31%	4.39%	5.41%	6.67%	7.02%	8.44%	8.68%	10.69%	12.23%	12.76%	13.34%
Minnesota Vikings	0.05%	0.55%	0.92%	1.22%	1.88%	2.80%	3.20%	3.97%	5.00%	6.58%	7.54%	9.27%	11.18%	13.45%	15.91%	16.48%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%	0.17%	0.37%	0.39%	0.77%	0.97%	1.75%	2.35%	3.26%	4.78%	6.21%	7.39%	9.82%	13.66%	18.86%	29.23%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Denver Broncos	28.27%	18.87%	12.40%	9.35%	6.88%	5.73%	3.99%	3.16%	2.52%	1.97%	1.44%	1.18%	1.07%	0.88%	0.52%	0.42%	0.31%	0.34%	0.19%	0.11%	0.13%	0.10%	0.08%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	—	—	—	—
Seattle Seahawks	21.76%	18.35%	11.94%	9.64%	7.37%	5.50%	4.00%	4.13%	3.39%	2.65%	2.18%	1.84%	1.48%	1.15%	1.07%	0.59%	0.57%	0.68%	0.42%	0.32%	0.22%	0.26%	0.18%	0.10%	0.05%	0.06%	0.06%	—	0.02%	—	0.02%	—
New England Patriots	11.30%	10.55%	10.71%	10.19%	8.52%	8.26%	6.25%	6.28%	4.10%	4.03%	3.09%	3.20%	2.03%	2.28%	1.63%	1.69%	0.99%	0.95%	0.71%	0.82%	0.40%	0.55%	0.31%	0.39%	0.30%	0.16%	0.04%	0.14%	0.04%	0.05%	0.02%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	6.98%	7.82%	7.07%	6.91%	7.73%	6.11%	6.51%	5.39%	5.99%	4.81%	4.50%	4.17%	4.08%	3.49%	2.63%	2.44%	2.21%	1.80%	1.93%	1.42%	1.23%	0.96%	0.94%	0.77%	0.61%	0.40%	0.42%	0.22%	0.17%	0.18%	0.07%	0.04%
Carolina Panthers	5.45%	6.57%	7.46%	6.99%	6.46%	6.29%	6.26%	5.34%	5.09%	4.85%	4.41%	4.64%	4.05%	3.90%	3.53%	3.13%	2.65%	2.24%	1.65%	1.70%	1.35%	1.18%	1.07%	0.81%	0.73%	0.62%	0.51%	0.30%	0.37%	0.23%	0.12%	0.05%
New Orleans Saints	4.37%	5.55%	6.78%	6.91%	6.70%	6.01%	6.41%	5.78%	5.88%	5.10%	5.13%	4.55%	4.21%	3.65%	3.34%	2.69%	2.89%	2.57%	1.84%	1.73%	1.34%	1.18%	1.10%	0.99%	0.91%	0.61%	0.46%	0.34%	0.48%	0.23%	0.18%	0.09%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.17%	5.45%	7.06%	6.48%	6.78%	7.07%	5.86%	6.01%	5.53%	5.08%	4.76%	4.35%	3.75%	3.80%	3.32%	2.77%	2.37%	2.34%	2.05%	1.95%	1.62%	1.59%	1.05%	1.20%	0.78%	0.84%	0.60%	0.43%	0.51%	0.19%	0.16%	0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.72%	4.77%	4.96%	5.79%	5.29%	5.38%	5.90%	6.33%	6.02%	6.36%	4.87%	5.65%	4.41%	4.80%	3.47%	3.32%	2.98%	2.70%	2.30%	2.12%	1.48%	1.68%	1.31%	1.06%	0.94%	0.62%	0.57%	0.48%	0.24%	0.22%	0.10%	0.16%
Indianapolis Colts	2.33%	2.87%	3.83%	4.36%	5.56%	6.19%	5.71%	6.53%	5.26%	6.41%	5.01%	5.06%	4.26%	5.05%	3.92%	4.17%	2.85%	3.15%	2.96%	2.96%	2.04%	1.88%	1.36%	1.71%	1.25%	1.11%	0.60%	0.53%	0.43%	0.29%	0.21%	0.15%
Baltimore Ravens	2.19%	3.31%	4.13%	4.13%	4.51%	4.84%	5.15%	5.43%	5.34%	4.94%	5.13%	4.89%	4.43%	4.91%	3.87%	4.61%	3.09%	3.70%	2.90%	3.04%	2.52%	2.61%	1.89%	1.85%	1.41%	1.22%	1.09%	1.08%	0.64%	0.54%	0.44%	0.17%
Green Bay Packers	1.79%	2.97%	4.07%	4.96%	4.77%	5.28%	5.18%	5.09%	5.13%	4.86%	5.01%	4.63%	4.59%	4.22%	3.84%	4.06%	3.82%	3.49%	3.03%	2.56%	2.92%	2.56%	1.96%	1.88%	1.65%	1.36%	1.36%	0.83%	0.93%	0.60%	0.40%	0.20%
Chicago Bears	1.87%	2.82%	4.02%	4.76%	4.89%	5.07%	5.11%	4.45%	5.31%	4.65%	4.92%	4.43%	5.01%	3.92%	4.23%	3.70%	3.92%	3.25%	3.35%	2.69%	2.65%	2.34%	2.45%	1.92%	1.73%	1.27%	1.56%	1.15%	0.99%	0.85%	0.47%	0.25%
Dallas Cowboys	1.57%	2.30%	3.64%	3.73%	4.66%	4.88%	5.32%	5.38%	4.65%	4.98%	4.97%	4.65%	4.56%	4.35%	4.42%	3.89%	3.75%	3.33%	3.21%	2.55%	3.32%	2.56%	2.42%	1.95%	2.06%	1.44%	1.41%	1.22%	1.17%	0.75%	0.66%	0.25%
Miami Dolphins	0.70%	1.21%	2.06%	2.27%	2.68%	2.80%	3.42%	3.52%	4.04%	4.31%	4.29%	4.84%	4.97%	5.33%	4.64%	5.14%	3.81%	4.40%	4.02%	4.38%	3.21%	4.01%	3.02%	2.91%	2.40%	2.69%	1.98%	2.00%	1.79%	1.53%	0.96%	0.67%
Detroit Lions	0.97%	1.44%	1.84%	2.41%	2.75%	3.36%	3.16%	3.42%	4.09%	3.88%	4.21%	4.00%	4.69%	4.00%	4.73%	3.77%	4.77%	3.85%	4.15%	3.35%	4.29%	3.47%	3.95%	3.17%	2.91%	2.86%	2.52%	2.22%	2.10%	1.49%	1.26%	0.92%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.56%	0.81%	1.47%	2.05%	2.23%	2.74%	2.84%	3.28%	3.44%	3.87%	3.86%	4.09%	4.29%	3.91%	4.82%	3.99%	4.40%	4.48%	4.33%	3.61%	4.17%	3.73%	3.80%	3.69%	3.81%	3.26%	2.73%	2.15%	2.37%	2.30%	1.91%	1.01%
Tennessee Titans	0.32%	0.76%	1.06%	1.45%	2.03%	2.42%	2.78%	3.24%	3.10%	4.33%	3.63%	4.41%	3.95%	4.81%	4.70%	5.48%	4.02%	4.82%	4.46%	4.89%	4.00%	4.03%	3.62%	4.27%	3.25%	3.44%	2.32%	2.62%	1.83%	1.77%	1.08%	1.11%
San Diego Chargers	0.40%	0.80%	1.18%	1.38%	1.58%	1.82%	2.63%	2.64%	3.23%	3.53%	3.91%	4.17%	3.79%	4.55%	4.09%	4.52%	4.77%	5.31%	4.67%	5.19%	4.50%	4.76%	3.77%	3.95%	3.29%	3.38%	2.83%	3.09%	2.08%	1.61%	1.41%	1.17%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.40%	0.73%	1.13%	1.40%	1.61%	2.48%	2.39%	2.46%	2.89%	3.04%	3.67%	3.55%	3.69%	4.18%	4.28%	4.86%	3.86%	4.68%	4.24%	5.28%	4.40%	4.73%	4.01%	4.12%	3.43%	3.82%	3.09%	2.97%	2.57%	2.46%	1.82%	1.76%
Arizona Cardinals	0.31%	0.69%	0.90%	1.11%	1.35%	1.55%	2.29%	1.84%	2.68%	2.52%	2.95%	3.32%	3.66%	3.56%	3.77%	3.43%	5.01%	4.11%	5.08%	4.28%	4.88%	4.78%	4.87%	4.29%	4.71%	3.98%	4.23%	3.42%	3.64%	2.70%	2.60%	1.49%
New York Giants	0.15%	0.36%	0.65%	0.95%	1.43%	1.31%	1.68%	2.04%	2.16%	2.35%	2.90%	2.70%	3.18%	2.98%	3.89%	4.18%	4.25%	3.80%	4.58%	4.12%	4.67%	4.56%	5.02%	4.43%	4.61%	4.44%	4.32%	4.11%	4.33%	3.91%	3.66%	2.28%
Atlanta Falcons	0.12%	0.20%	0.29%	0.63%	0.69%	0.86%	1.24%	1.33%	1.56%	1.74%	2.31%	2.21%	2.92%	2.88%	3.43%	3.49%	4.58%	4.72%	4.77%	4.03%	5.81%	5.26%	5.65%	5.24%	5.28%	4.85%	5.11%	4.06%	4.74%	3.76%	3.41%	2.83%
St. Louis Rams	0.06%	0.21%	0.34%	0.45%	0.57%	0.63%	1.07%	1.12%	1.67%	1.36%	1.71%	2.08%	2.57%	2.28%	3.03%	2.81%	4.56%	3.49%	4.38%	4.05%	4.92%	4.73%	5.71%	4.69%	5.95%	5.33%	6.09%	5.90%	5.42%	5.02%	4.81%	2.99%
Houston Texans	0.02%	0.09%	0.12%	0.20%	0.47%	0.45%	0.74%	1.02%	1.10%	1.28%	1.66%	1.78%	1.79%	2.65%	3.00%	3.69%	3.27%	4.04%	4.24%	4.82%	4.48%	4.96%	5.15%	6.47%	5.31%	6.07%	5.32%	5.71%	5.12%	5.27%	5.22%	4.49%
Washington Redskins	0.07%	0.21%	0.26%	0.47%	0.55%	0.70%	1.04%	1.08%	1.20%	1.39%	1.95%	1.49%	2.47%	2.15%	2.91%	2.89%	3.74%	3.27%	3.81%	3.45%	4.87%	4.45%	5.08%	4.37%	5.38%	5.35%	5.98%	5.68%	5.76%	6.32%	6.52%	5.14%
Buffalo Bills	0.07%	0.11%	0.19%	0.21%	0.37%	0.54%	0.72%	0.88%	1.05%	1.28%	1.58%	1.67%	1.91%	2.12%	2.41%	2.88%	2.77%	3.31%	3.73%	4.19%	4.19%	4.87%	4.80%	5.79%	4.89%	5.90%	5.77%	6.19%	5.93%	6.87%	6.49%	6.32%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.05%	0.11%	0.17%	0.33%	0.49%	0.55%	0.72%	0.93%	0.92%	1.35%	1.94%	1.81%	2.06%	2.38%	3.08%	3.10%	3.55%	3.42%	4.78%	3.95%	4.72%	4.82%	5.51%	5.47%	6.37%	5.81%	6.44%	6.08%	6.54%	5.95%	6.59%
Cleveland Browns	0.03%	0.08%	0.14%	0.27%	0.38%	0.39%	0.63%	0.70%	0.76%	1.15%	1.39%	1.39%	1.92%	1.89%	2.24%	2.26%	2.54%	3.30%	3.41%	4.10%	3.61%	4.24%	4.21%	5.42%	5.44%	6.67%	6.42%	7.76%	7.10%	7.75%	6.21%	6.20%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%	0.02%	0.12%	0.24%	0.50%	0.46%	0.70%	0.67%	0.88%	1.10%	1.67%	1.29%	1.84%	1.49%	2.24%	2.14%	2.99%	2.74%	3.77%	3.39%	4.18%	3.62%	5.14%	4.56%	6.20%	5.52%	7.00%	6.96%	7.39%	7.21%	7.75%	6.21%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.08%	0.18%	0.17%	0.29%	0.40%	0.53%	0.63%	0.80%	0.87%	1.19%	1.54%	1.55%	2.00%	2.42%	2.45%	2.73%	3.72%	3.78%	4.08%	4.63%	5.11%	6.10%	6.30%	6.91%	7.83%	7.82%	9.11%	8.02%	8.70%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.06%	0.16%	0.21%	0.14%	0.21%	0.38%	0.48%	0.53%	0.65%	1.03%	0.70%	1.47%	1.22%	1.97%	1.93%	2.34%	2.58%	3.35%	3.53%	3.87%	3.95%	5.26%	5.45%	7.06%	6.98%	9.31%	9.21%	12.93%	12.98%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	—	—	—	0.02%	0.01%	0.04%	0.13%	0.10%	0.15%	0.21%	0.31%	0.40%	0.52%	0.63%	0.69%	0.77%	1.21%	1.33%	1.82%	1.52%	2.02%	2.76%	3.40%	3.87%	4.59%	5.82%	7.18%	8.63%	11.04%	15.14%	25.68%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Denver Broncos	46.54%	20.20%	8.17%	2.51%	13.35%	4.44%	4.79%
New England Patriots	20.59%	24.76%	20.98%	11.79%	4.76%	4.80%	12.32%
Cincinnati Bengals	8.74%	16.04%	16.98%	9.54%	8.25%	9.58%	30.87%
Kansas City Chiefs	8.34%	5.78%	2.81%	1.14%	28.88%	16.22%	36.83%
Baltimore Ravens	5.26%	9.60%	10.24%	7.38%	9.48%	11.76%	46.28%
Indianapolis Colts	4.76%	9.25%	17.21%	32.17%	1.98%	3.59%	31.04%
Miami Dolphins	1.88%	4.87%	5.32%	4.15%	8.56%	11.52%	63.70%
San Diego Chargers	1.31%	1.50%	0.81%	0.50%	10.40%	9.67%	75.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.10%	2.96%	5.12%	3.65%	4.41%	8.04%	74.72%
Tennessee Titans	0.99%	2.92%	7.01%	16.13%	2.68%	5.39%	64.88%
Buffalo Bills	0.17%	0.49%	1.17%	1.24%	2.04%	3.82%	91.07%
Houston Texans	0.12%	0.52%	1.67%	5.82%	1.06%	2.44%	88.37%
Cleveland Browns	0.11%	0.54%	1.21%	1.53%	1.48%	2.86%	92.27%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.43%	1.03%	1.08%	1.45%	3.57%	92.39%
Oakland Raiders	0.03%	0.13%	0.15%	0.08%	1.13%	1.92%	96.56%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.01%	0.12%	1.29%	0.09%	0.38%	98.10%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Seattle Seahawks	41.72%	16.82%	6.42%	2.04%	16.61%	7.10%	9.29%
San Francisco 49ers	15.59%	7.56%	3.46%	1.31%	28.68%	13.38%	30.02%
Carolina Panthers	12.27%	15.85%	13.43%	8.43%	8.17%	9.86%	31.99%
New Orleans Saints	10.21%	15.09%	12.09%	6.41%	11.45%	11.42%	33.33%
Chicago Bears	4.88%	9.88%	11.97%	9.49%	5.58%	8.65%	49.55%
Green Bay Packers	4.81%	9.88%	13.29%	10.33%	5.03%	8.65%	48.01%
Dallas Cowboys	3.90%	8.77%	13.27%	21.17%	2.42%	4.95%	45.52%
Detroit Lions	2.29%	5.20%	7.12%	6.55%	4.17%	7.91%	66.76%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.38%	4.20%	7.53%	14.32%	2.02%	4.63%	65.92%
Arizona Cardinals	1.23%	1.14%	0.79%	0.34%	6.71%	6.90%	82.89%
New York Giants	0.54%	2.00%	4.31%	9.56%	1.34%	3.35%	78.90%
St. Louis Rams	0.47%	0.49%	0.34%	0.28%	3.55%	3.80%	91.07%
Atlanta Falcons	0.33%	1.16%	1.82%	1.72%	2.32%	4.13%	88.52%
Washington Redskins	0.31%	1.02%	2.23%	5.49%	0.81%	2.03%	88.11%
Minnesota Vikings	0.05%	0.69%	1.47%	2.10%	0.82%	2.26%	92.61%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%	0.25%	0.46%	0.46%	0.32%	0.98%	97.51%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Seattle Seahawks	81.39%	81.39%	56.61%	38.82%	22.31%
Denver Broncos	86.30%	86.30%	60.53%	38.30%	19.75%
New England Patriots	77.78%	77.78%	50.75%	28.62%	14.67%
San Francisco 49ers	55.24%	55.24%	33.94%	21.02%	12.18%
Carolina Panthers	53.65%	53.65%	32.51%	15.12%	7.63%
Cincinnati Bengals	54.15%	54.15%	26.91%	12.11%	5.51%
New Orleans Saints	49.65%	49.65%	26.10%	11.22%	5.12%
Indianapolis Colts	54.95%	47.58%	18.60%	6.92%	2.97%
Kansas City Chiefs	49.05%	34.52%	13.02%	4.74%	1.76%
Philadelphia Eagles	28.50%	21.83%	9.18%	3.01%	1.33%
Arizona Cardinals	14.74%	10.05%	4.37%	2.27%	0.97%
Dallas Cowboys	41.81%	29.80%	9.36%	2.24%	0.90%
Pittsburgh Steelers	21.22%	14.52%	5.56%	2.04%	0.88%
Baltimore Ravens	38.86%	30.39%	9.74%	2.98%	0.85%
San Diego Chargers	21.38%	11.50%	4.22%	1.62%	0.74%
Green Bay Packers	37.30%	29.25%	8.97%	2.23%	0.62%
Chicago Bears	35.69%	27.84%	7.95%	1.63%	0.38%
Miami Dolphins	29.55%	15.80%	4.60%	1.23%	0.33%
Detroit Lions	25.75%	16.25%	4.54%	0.96%	0.32%
Tennessee Titans	31.21%	16.41%	3.96%	0.94%	0.28%
New York Giants	18.56%	9.58%	2.57%	0.60%	0.19%
St. Louis Rams	7.97%	4.45%	1.48%	0.48%	0.15%
New York Jets	7.13%	2.38%	0.68%	0.19%	0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.22%	0.81%	0.18%	0.05%	0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	6.65%	2.99%	0.77%	0.14%	0.02%
Atlanta Falcons	9.99%	3.95%	0.92%	0.12%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	3.28%	0.61%	0.09%	0.02%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	8.27%	3.19%	0.69%	0.23%	0.01%
Washington Redskins	10.56%	3.27%	0.55%	0.09%	0.01%
Jacksonville Jaguars	1.88%	0.39%	0.10%	0.01%	—
Houston Texans	10.99%	2.58%	0.27%	0.03%	—
Cleveland Browns	7.08%	1.90%	0.28%	0.02%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.60%	1.77%	0.50%	0.59%	0.87%	1.68%	0.19%	2.20%	1.86%	0.99%	0.50%	0.26%	0.79%	0.90%	1.83%
Buffalo Bills	0.40%		0.26%	0.12%	0.07%	0.15%	0.40%		0.28%	0.12%	0.20%	0.05%	0.02%	0.09%	0.07%	0.30%
Cincinnati Bengals	4.70%	0.83%		0.81%	1.29%	1.06%	3.07%	0.11%	4.30%	3.47%	1.87%	0.83%	0.53%	2.08%	2.03%	2.39%
Cleveland Browns	0.14%	0.07%	0.07%		0.08%	0.07%	0.14%	0.01%	0.17%	0.16%	0.09%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.04%	0.14%
Denver Broncos	2.24%	0.40%	1.73%	0.53%		1.06%	3.52%	0.20%	2.30%	1.49%	1.07%	0.45%	0.28%	1.02%	1.05%	2.22%
Houston Texans	0.26%	0.08%	0.06%	0.13%	0.10%		0.08%	0.01%	0.48%	0.24%	0.04%	0.06%	0.10%	0.08%	0.14%	0.08%
Indianapolis Colts	3.54%	0.99%	2.50%	0.99%	2.20%	1.02%		0.17%	7.91%	3.70%	1.15%	1.03%	0.60%	1.70%	3.46%	2.61%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%		0.09%	0.07%	0.01%		0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.33%	0.40%	1.82%	0.65%	0.86%	1.60%	4.57%	0.30%		1.62%	1.46%	0.29%	0.06%	0.84%	0.19%	3.41%
Miami Dolphins	1.29%	0.18%	0.78%	0.33%	0.28%	0.60%	1.10%	0.16%	1.01%		0.75%	0.17%	0.12%	0.56%	0.52%	1.20%
New England Patriots	4.40%	1.04%	2.89%	0.85%	1.75%	0.98%	2.16%	0.13%	5.52%	4.33%		1.01%	0.44%	2.44%	2.40%	2.09%
New York Jets	0.31%	0.03%	0.22%	0.05%	0.08%	0.13%	0.21%	0.01%	0.22%	0.07%	0.19%		0.03%	0.04%	0.12%	0.19%
Oakland Raiders	0.08%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%	0.08%	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.01%	0.04%		0.04%		0.06%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.14%	0.44%	1.17%	0.21%	0.54%	0.49%	1.15%	0.04%	1.33%	1.29%	0.70%	0.23%	0.14%		0.68%	0.91%
San Diego Chargers	0.89%	0.21%	0.76%	0.26%	0.35%	0.57%	1.88%	0.15%	0.21%	0.53%	0.93%	0.18%	0.02%	0.48%		1.27%
Tennessee Titans	1.59%	0.44%	0.91%	0.37%	0.69%	0.40%	1.33%	0.02%	2.61%	1.51%	0.44%	0.36%	0.20%	0.56%	1.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.30%	0.48%	0.93%	1.30%	0.60%	1.06%	0.19%	0.72%	0.67%	0.55%	0.14%	0.21%	0.02%	0.07%	0.44%
Atlanta Falcons	0.06%		0.18%	0.32%	0.27%	0.23%	0.29%	0.04%	0.24%	0.21%	0.13%	0.14%	0.10%	0.06%	0.01%	0.18%
Carolina Panthers	1.10%	0.87%		2.84%	2.82%	2.11%	3.05%	0.62%	3.77%	1.34%	1.34%	2.42%	1.42%	0.68%	0.22%	0.93%
Chicago Bears	0.50%	0.72%	0.86%		1.40%	1.45%	2.34%	0.20%	1.35%	0.65%	0.67%	1.18%	0.57%	0.46%	0.16%	0.57%
Dallas Cowboys	0.96%	0.75%	1.30%	2.04%		1.70%	1.83%	0.46%	1.71%	0.72%	1.01%	2.07%	1.03%	0.69%	0.24%	0.62%
Detroit Lions	0.35%	0.41%	0.79%	1.19%	0.92%		1.29%	0.15%	0.80%	0.47%	0.46%	0.78%	0.50%	0.16%	0.04%	0.45%
Green Bay Packers	0.78%	0.65%	0.94%	2.59%	1.58%	1.71%		0.33%	1.39%	0.74%	0.62%	1.19%	0.81%	0.47%	0.12%	0.64%
Minnesota Vikings	0.10%	0.08%	0.19%	0.29%	0.21%	0.11%	0.27%		0.17%	0.12%	0.12%	0.21%	0.11%	0.10%	0.02%	0.15%
New Orleans Saints	1.06%	0.83%	2.76%	2.95%	3.27%	2.22%	3.06%	0.66%		1.42%	1.57%	1.88%	1.13%	0.46%	0.14%	0.94%
New York Giants	0.36%	0.36%	0.46%	0.81%	0.75%	0.76%	0.78%	0.14%	0.55%		0.29%	0.79%	0.52%	0.26%	0.05%	0.16%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.91%	0.68%	1.20%	1.81%	1.79%	1.36%	1.45%	0.19%	1.61%	0.66%		2.29%	1.22%	0.53%	0.11%	0.44%
San Francisco 49ers	0.28%	0.79%	2.84%	3.74%	5.82%	2.37%	4.04%	0.70%	2.40%	2.31%	3.09%		1.50%	0.16%	0.26%	1.79%
Seattle Seahawks	0.51%	0.79%	1.92%	2.37%	3.66%	1.83%	2.37%	0.54%	1.93%	1.84%	2.10%	1.40%		0.33%	0.17%	1.09%
St. Louis Rams	0.03%	0.15%	0.34%	0.35%	0.69%	0.30%	0.50%	0.07%	0.20%	0.27%	0.24%	0.05%	0.09%		0.05%	0.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		0.01%	0.01%	0.07%	0.04%	0.05%	0.11%	0.03%	0.03%	0.04%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%		0.06%
Washington Redskins	0.06%	0.14%	0.09%	0.31%	0.16%	0.19%	0.30%	0.08%	0.15%	0.06%	0.03%	0.17%	0.10%	0.08%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.14%	0.99%	0.05%	1.44%	0.16%	1.74%	0.02%	1.17%	0.68%	1.98%	0.10%	0.01%	0.16%	0.35%	0.75%
Buffalo Bills	0.08%		0.11%	0.02%	0.15%	0.01%	0.11%		0.04%		0.07%			0.01%	0.03%	0.06%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.91%	0.45%		0.09%	4.96%	0.36%	4.35%	0.02%	2.57%	1.97%	6.83%	0.29%	0.03%	0.50%	0.85%	1.73%
Cleveland Browns	0.03%		0.03%		0.01%		0.03%		0.02%	0.03%	0.08%				0.01%	0.04%
Denver Broncos	6.01%	0.95%	8.54%	0.53%		0.81%	10.27%	0.09%	9.33%	3.66%	8.74%	0.64%	0.25%	3.33%	3.14%	4.24%
Houston Texans	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%		0.02%		0.02%		0.03%	0.03%	0.07%	0.01%			0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	2.42%	0.24%	3.01%	0.13%	3.86%	0.03%		0.01%	1.69%	1.26%	4.14%	0.17%	0.03%	0.95%	0.39%	0.27%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%		0.03%		0.02%						0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.29%	0.09%	1.69%	0.11%	3.79%	0.10%	1.70%	0.01%		0.61%	1.88%	0.08%	0.04%	0.53%	0.35%	0.75%
Miami Dolphins	0.71%	0.03%	0.75%	0.08%	0.72%	0.05%	0.55%	0.02%	0.41%		0.46%		0.01%	0.26%	0.17%	0.38%
New England Patriots	6.71%	0.39%	10.41%	0.48%	7.35%	0.69%	8.62%	0.10%	4.91%	2.19%		0.26%	0.12%	3.03%	1.65%	3.84%
New York Jets	0.08%	0.01%	0.16%	0.02%	0.13%	0.01%	0.12%		0.03%		0.03%				0.02%	0.07%
Oakland Raiders			0.02%		0.03%		0.01%		0.01%		0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.34%	0.12%	0.41%		1.28%	0.06%	0.75%	0.01%	0.50%	0.29%	1.27%	0.11%	0.03%		0.19%	0.20%
San Diego Chargers	0.46%	0.02%	0.44%	0.04%	1.25%	0.01%	0.51%	0.01%	0.44%	0.20%	0.63%	0.02%		0.07%		0.12%
Tennessee Titans	0.55%	0.05%	0.63%	0.07%	0.76%	0.02%	0.20%		0.35%	0.28%	0.80%	0.02%		0.12%	0.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.04%	0.53%	0.39%	0.49%	0.19%	0.44%	0.01%	0.52%	0.08%	0.23%	0.34%	1.04%	0.02%		0.05%
Atlanta Falcons			0.05%	0.14%	0.18%	0.08%	0.06%		0.04%	0.08%	0.05%	0.09%	0.14%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers	0.75%	0.36%		4.35%	4.05%	2.26%	4.38%	0.37%	3.92%	1.11%	2.54%	2.95%	4.25%	0.52%	0.09%	0.61%
Chicago Bears	0.23%	0.13%	1.32%		1.29%	0.33%	0.47%		1.24%	0.45%	0.61%	0.61%	0.95%	0.09%	0.08%	0.15%
Dallas Cowboys	0.23%	0.23%	1.42%	1.41%		0.74%	1.22%	0.14%	1.46%	0.13%	0.17%	0.77%	1.23%	0.13%	0.04%	0.04%
Detroit Lions	0.03%	0.12%	0.65%	0.21%	0.83%		0.15%		0.73%	0.20%	0.41%	0.36%	0.68%	0.07%	0.01%	0.09%
Green Bay Packers	0.25%	0.19%	1.29%	0.58%	1.36%	0.29%		0.08%	1.67%	0.44%	0.66%	0.59%	1.14%	0.14%	0.07%	0.22%
Minnesota Vikings			0.15%	0.02%	0.11%	0.02%	0.03%		0.18%	0.04%	0.03%	0.05%	0.12%			0.02%
New Orleans Saints	0.65%	0.24%	2.91%	3.29%	2.94%	2.04%	3.72%	0.45%		1.31%	1.88%	2.58%	3.11%	0.41%	0.06%	0.51%
New York Giants	0.04%	0.05%	0.27%	0.38%	0.09%	0.24%	0.50%	0.04%	0.36%		0.02%	0.18%	0.36%	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.10%	0.27%	1.29%	1.25%	0.26%	0.60%	1.27%	0.10%	1.53%	0.03%		0.78%	1.59%	0.08%	0.01%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	0.99%	0.49%	4.13%	2.76%	2.87%	1.78%	2.72%	0.32%	4.53%	0.83%	1.84%		9.85%	0.40%	0.07%	0.36%
Seattle Seahawks	2.37%	0.87%	6.87%	4.72%	5.75%	3.00%	5.09%	0.66%	7.19%	2.22%	4.16%	11.83%		1.09%	0.18%	0.61%
St. Louis Rams	0.03%	0.02%	0.19%	0.20%	0.15%	0.11%	0.16%	0.03%	0.10%	0.06%	0.04%	0.10%	0.26%		0.01%	0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers				0.05%	0.03%	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.02%	0.07%	0.14%	0.04%	0.02%	0.07%	0.01%	0.07%	0.02%		0.04%	0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.01%	0.22%	0.01%	1.05%	0.01%	0.34%	0.02%	0.34%	0.05%	0.69%		0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.08%
Buffalo Bills	0.01%		0.02%		0.08%		0.01%		0.02%		0.04%			0.03%		0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.50%	0.04%		0.01%	4.29%	0.07%	1.31%	0.01%	1.28%	0.39%	3.21%	0.07%	0.01%	0.19%	0.37%	0.36%
Cleveland Browns					0.01%		0.01%
Denver Broncos	3.30%	0.26%	7.98%	0.11%		0.05%	5.16%	0.04%	1.90%	1.65%	13.76%	0.23%		1.66%	0.78%	1.42%
Houston Texans									0.01%	0.01%				0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.44%	0.01%	1.01%	0.03%	2.03%	0.01%			0.64%	0.33%	1.75%	0.02%		0.28%	0.30%	0.07%
Jacksonville Jaguars					0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.36%	0.01%	0.83%	0.01%	0.96%	0.03%	0.56%	0.01%		0.15%	1.43%	0.04%		0.16%	0.06%	0.13%
Miami Dolphins	0.06%		0.12%		0.49%		0.14%		0.17%		0.18%			0.02%	0.04%	0.01%
New England Patriots	1.85%	0.12%	4.06%	0.07%	11.95%	0.05%	3.54%	0.01%	3.53%	0.65%		0.08%	0.04%	1.01%	0.84%	0.82%
New York Jets	0.01%		0.02%		0.06%	0.01%	0.03%		0.05%							0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%				0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.09%		0.19%		0.62%		0.27%		0.22%	0.04%	0.48%	0.02%			0.07%	0.04%
San Diego Chargers	0.09%		0.21%		0.37%		0.27%		0.08%	0.06%	0.37%	0.02%		0.09%		0.06%
Tennessee Titans	0.04%	0.01%	0.14%	0.02%	0.30%	0.01%	0.04%		0.04%	0.04%	0.22%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.03%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.03%	0.49%	0.17%	0.11%	0.12%	0.14%	0.01%	0.33%	0.02%	0.13%	0.28%	0.42%	0.01%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons					0.03%		0.01%		0.01%		0.01%	0.04%	0.02%
Carolina Panthers	0.47%	0.04%		0.83%	0.92%	0.41%	0.86%	0.02%	1.33%	0.27%	0.81%	3.21%	5.70%	0.21%	0.02%	0.02%
Chicago Bears	0.08%	0.02%	0.21%		0.10%	0.04%	0.09%		0.15%	0.01%	0.09%	0.27%	0.57%
Dallas Cowboys	0.06%	0.01%	0.36%	0.09%		0.08%	0.18%	0.01%	0.29%	0.02%	0.06%	0.43%	0.57%	0.08%
Detroit Lions	0.01%	0.01%	0.15%	0.03%	0.06%		0.04%		0.15%	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.25%		0.01%
Green Bay Packers	0.02%	0.03%	0.29%	0.02%	0.18%	0.04%			0.20%	0.02%	0.12%	0.40%	0.86%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%	0.03%				0.02%		0.03%	0.02%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.21%	0.10%	1.16%	0.54%	0.67%	0.33%	0.53%	0.11%		0.18%	0.72%	2.65%	3.86%	0.12%	0.01%	0.03%
New York Giants	0.03%		0.09%	0.04%	0.01%	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	0.10%			0.05%	0.17%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.06%		0.42%	0.18%	0.11%	0.07%	0.15%	0.01%	0.34%	0.01%		0.52%	1.09%	0.05%
San Francisco 49ers	0.45%	0.20%	4.79%	1.39%	1.54%	0.81%	1.48%	0.14%	3.82%	0.57%	1.31%		4.17%	0.16%	0.03%	0.16%
Seattle Seahawks	0.69%	0.36%	9.29%	2.97%	3.33%	1.61%	3.21%	0.31%	8.05%	0.85%	2.76%	4.79%		0.32%	0.04%	0.24%
St. Louis Rams			0.09%	0.04%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.09%	0.01%	0.07%	0.04%	0.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers			0.01%	0.01%								0.02%	0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.01%		0.03%			0.01%						0.02%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.02%				0.16%			0.38%				0.06%		0.06%	0.01%		0.22%						0.01%	0.03%					0.02%
Atlanta Falcons																			0.01%
Baltimore Ravens					0.15%	0.04%			0.01%			0.05%						0.01%		0.15%				0.01%			0.10%	0.32%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills					0.01%
Carolina Panthers			0.25%	0.06%			0.91%			2.64%				0.54%		0.44%	0.17%		2.24%			0.03%	0.01%		0.14%	0.11%					0.09%
Chicago Bears			0.01%				0.05%			0.17%				0.03%		0.01%	0.02%		0.08%						0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.11%	0.01%			1.02%	0.11%			0.13%		0.05%	0.22%						0.01%		0.71%	0.03%			0.19%			0.89%	1.98%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys			0.06%	0.02%			0.09%			0.31%				0.06%		0.05%	0.02%		0.18%						0.07%	0.03%					0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.52%	0.04%			2.92%	0.62%			0.46%		0.19%	0.72%						0.07%		2.49%	0.16%			0.63%			3.86%	6.82%	0.20%	0.01%		0.04%
Detroit Lions			0.02%				0.06%			0.07%				0.01%		0.03%	0.01%		0.07%						0.02%						0.03%
Green Bay Packers			0.02%				0.04%			0.23%				0.10%		0.02%			0.13%						0.02%	0.02%					0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	0.09%				0.56%	0.06%			0.09%		0.04%	0.09%								0.52%	0.02%			0.08%			0.42%	0.99%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs					0.29%	0.04%			0.04%		0.05%	0.05%								0.18%	0.01%			0.04%			0.43%	0.62%	0.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.02%				0.07%	0.01%			0.01%			0.02%								0.07%				0.02%			0.03%	0.07%				0.01%
Minnesota Vikings																	0.01%					0.01%
New England Patriots	0.51%	0.04%			2.16%	0.31%			0.49%		0.26%	0.40%						0.03%		1.66%	0.16%			0.66%			2.85%	5.08%	0.05%			0.01%
New Orleans Saints			0.24%	0.01%			0.68%	0.01%		1.76%				0.39%		0.24%	0.10%		1.39%			0.01%			0.15%	0.10%					0.04%
New York Giants							0.01%			0.09%				0.02%		0.01%			0.03%						0.02%						0.01%
New York Jets																								0.01%			0.03%	0.02%
Oakland Raiders																											0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.06%	0.02%			0.18%			0.42%				0.13%		0.10%	0.04%		0.29%			0.01%			0.04%	0.02%					0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.04%				0.14%	0.02%			0.06%			0.01%								0.14%	0.03%			0.02%			0.14%	0.28%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%				0.11%	0.03%			0.03%		0.04%	0.02%								0.15%				0.02%			0.06%	0.25%				0.02%
San Francisco 49ers			0.48%	0.04%			1.47%			4.37%				1.00%		0.64%	0.14%		3.48%			0.01%			0.20%	0.22%					0.13%
Seattle Seahawks			0.97%	0.07%			2.94%	0.01%		8.00%			0.03%	1.60%	0.01%	1.37%	0.36%		5.81%			0.05%			0.48%	0.35%					0.26%
St. Louis Rams							0.01%			0.07%				0.01%		0.01%	0.02%		0.02%												0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers										0.03%												0.01%
Tennessee Titans		0.02%			0.06%	0.01%			0.02%		0.01%	0.03%								0.03%							0.02%	0.08%
Washington Redskins										0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Seattle Seahawks	100.00%	67.06%	45.21%	24.77%	Won Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	100.00%	73.21%	44.97%	21.48%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New England Patriots	100.00%	68.13%	32.23%	15.25%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Carolina Panthers	100.00%	61.09%	23.71%	11.51%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Francisco 49ers	75.07%	34.35%	18.30%	11.33%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Cincinnati Bengals	69.76%	23.77%	11.17%	5.12%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Philadelphia Eagles	54.75%	18.79%	6.21%	2.77%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New Orleans Saints	45.25%	13.83%	5.36%	2.63%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Indianapolis Colts	62.84%	16.90%	5.69%	2.13%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
San Diego Chargers	30.24%	8.87%	2.96%	1.43%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	37.16%	9.12%	2.98%	1.22%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Green Bay Packers	24.93%	4.88%	1.21%	0.36%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals				69.76%
Indianapolis Colts			62.84%
Kansas City Chiefs		37.16%
San Diego Chargers	30.24%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers
Green Bay Packers				24.93%
New Orleans Saints			45.25%
Philadelphia Eagles		54.75%
San Francisco 49ers	75.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals					23.77%
Denver Broncos			31.93%	19.91%		21.37%
Indianapolis Colts		11.59%			5.31%
Kansas City Chiefs		6.33%			2.79%
New England Patriots	45.99%		14.01%	8.13%
San Diego Chargers		8.87%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers		8.77%		35.96%	16.36%
Green Bay Packers	2.61%					2.27%
New Orleans Saints						13.83%
Philadelphia Eagles	18.79%
San Francisco 49ers	17.51%					16.84%
Seattle Seahawks		11.28%	31.42%		24.36%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	San Diego Chargers
Cincinnati Bengals		6.95%	2.61%	1.61%
Denver Broncos	10.63%		2.57%	1.45%	30.32%
Indianapolis Colts	1.38%	1.07%			2.18%	1.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.59%	0.58%			1.34%	0.47%
New England Patriots		19.64%	5.42%	2.79%		4.38%
San Diego Chargers			0.61%	0.29%	2.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Green Bay Packers	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers		1.20%	4.53%		4.79%	13.19%
Green Bay Packers	0.33%		0.32%	0.26%		0.30%
New Orleans Saints	3.20%	0.50%			1.66%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.48%			2.33%	3.40%
San Francisco 49ers	6.28%		3.62%	3.44%		4.96%
Seattle Seahawks	27.57%	1.49%		8.88%	7.27%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Carolina Panthers	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	Philadelphia Eagles	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks
Carolina Panthers		1.41%	4.91%		0.82%	0.36%	3.65%			0.36%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.40%			0.08%				0.32%	0.43%		0.78%	2.11%
Denver Broncos	5.37%			0.40%				1.26%	1.63%		3.23%	9.59%
Green Bay Packers		0.04%	0.12%		0.03%		0.16%			0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.59%			0.03%				0.12%	0.16%		0.26%	0.97%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.44%			0.03%				0.06%	0.05%		0.18%	0.46%
New England Patriots	4.09%			0.28%				0.89%	1.06%		2.30%	6.63%
New Orleans Saints		0.23%	1.23%		0.13%	0.10%	0.88%			0.06%
Philadelphia Eagles		0.30%	1.16%		0.24%	0.08%	0.94%			0.05%
San Diego Chargers	0.31%			0.03%				0.08%	0.11%		0.22%	0.68%
San Francisco 49ers		1.33%	4.85%		0.75%	0.31%	3.71%			0.38%
Seattle Seahawks		2.74%	11.22%		1.59%	0.91%	7.64%			0.67%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Seattle Seahawks 24.77% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

46.85%

Win Prob

69.44%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

60.98%

Win Prob

67.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

45.30%

Win Prob

53.92%

Denver Broncos 21.48% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

43.61%

Win Prob

73.37%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

67.42%

Win Prob

60.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

44.65%

Win Prob

46.08%

New England Patriots 15.25% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

67.50%

Win Prob

65.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

60.94%

Win Prob

39.31%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

43.48%

Win Prob

46.46%

Carolina Panthers 11.51% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

58.86%

Win Prob

65.68%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

55.63%

Win Prob

32.36%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

42.66%

Win Prob

47.76%

San Francisco 49ers 11.33% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

75.07%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

50.98%

Win Prob

51.70%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

34.32%

Win Prob

56.73%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

42.81%

Win Prob

60.02%

Cincinnati Bengals 5.12% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Diego Chargers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.76%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.07%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

62.22%

Win Prob

39.53%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

41.21%

Win Prob

43.51%

Philadelphia Eagles 2.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New Orleans Saints

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.75%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.32%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

54.75%

Win Prob

27.69%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

41.88%

Win Prob

41.58%

New Orleans Saints 2.63% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Philadelphia Eagles

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.25%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.56%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

59.70%

Win Prob

41.40%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

46.77%

Win Prob

49.40%

Indianapolis Colts 2.13% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

62.84%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

68.58%

Win Prob

26.63%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

38.31%

Win Prob

28.68%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

45.54%

Win Prob

37.89%

San Diego Chargers 1.43% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.24%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

29.33%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

69.59%

Win Prob

31.99%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

47.55%

Win Prob

50.37%

Kansas City Chiefs 1.22% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.16%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

69.41%

Win Prob

24.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.97%

Win Prob

32.45%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

37.70%

Win Prob

33.58%

Green Bay Packers 0.36% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. San Francisco 49ers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

24.93%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

53.48%

Win Prob

22.93%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

27.27%

Win Prob

21.57%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.44%

Win Prob

36.36%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2013-09-08	@ St. Louis Rams	L 24-27	1444.31	1479.33	35.19%	64.38%	-12.67	0-1
2013-09-15	Detroit Lions	W 25-21	1431.64	1489.30	51.50%	48.07%	+19.96	1-1
2013-09-22	@ New Orleans Saints	L 7-31	1451.60	1556.77	26.61%	72.96%	-27.11	1-2
2013-09-29	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 13-10	1424.49	1425.88	39.72%	59.85%	+21.50	2-2
2013-10-06	Carolina Panthers	W 22-6	1445.99	1530.52	47.63%	51.93%	+43.12	3-2
2013-10-13	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-32	1489.11	1589.17	27.19%	72.38%	-19.59	3-3
2013-10-17	Seattle Seahawks	L 22-34	1469.52	1662.28	32.79%	66.78%	-23.61	3-4
2013-10-27	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-13	1445.91	1507.13	50.99%	48.58%	+37.74	4-4
2013-11-10	Houston Texans	W 27-24	1483.65	1389.61	71.69%	27.88%	+10.04	5-4
2013-11-17	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-14	1493.69	1243.71	73.59%	25.98%	+19.48	6-4
2013-11-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 40-11	1513.17	1534.80	56.64%	42.93%	+48.03	7-4
2013-12-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-24	1561.20	1537.54	43.22%	56.35%	-15.55	7-5
2013-12-08	St. Louis Rams	W 30-10	1545.65	1528.11	62.05%	37.52%	+34.87	8-5
2013-12-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 37-34	1580.52	1428.08	61.47%	38.09%	+13.71	9-5
2013-12-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 17-10	1594.23	1772.64	19.21%	80.35%	+44.10	10-5
2013-12-29	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-23	1638.33	1716.98	48.48%	51.09%	-17.43	10-6
2013-09-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-23	1560.99	1519.48	45.75%	53.81%	-23.28	0-1
2013-09-15	St. Louis Rams	W 31-24	1537.71	1492.00	65.77%	33.80%	+18.59	1-1
2013-09-22	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-27	1556.30	1549.21	40.89%	58.67%	-16.99	1-2
2013-09-29	New England Patriots	L 23-30	1539.31	1630.24	46.72%	52.85%	-25.67	1-3
2013-10-07	New York Jets	L 28-30	1513.64	1426.98	70.83%	28.74%	-20.77	1-4
2013-10-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-23	1492.87	1366.03	75.32%	24.24%	+14.26	2-4
2013-10-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 13-27	1507.13	1445.91	48.58%	50.99%	-37.74	2-5
2013-11-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-34	1469.39	1598.48	24.01%	75.56%	-24.47	2-6
2013-11-10	Seattle Seahawks	L 10-33	1444.92	1701.41	25.26%	74.30%	-25.20	2-7
2013-11-17	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 28-41	1419.72	1346.12	50.36%	49.21%	-37.70	2-8
2013-11-21	New Orleans Saints	L 13-17	1382.02	1664.17	22.58%	76.99%	-9.39	2-9
2013-12-01	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-31	1372.63	1417.62	33.89%	65.68%	+23.59	3-9
2013-12-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-22	1396.22	1444.41	33.48%	66.09%	-6.96	3-10
2013-12-15	Washington Redskins	W 27-26	1389.26	1320.54	68.67%	30.90%	+6.43	4-10
2013-12-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 24-34	1395.69	1710.54	9.78%	89.79%	-6.44	4-11
2013-12-29	Carolina Panthers	L 20-21	1389.25	1663.69	23.36%	76.21%	-4.87	4-12
2013-09-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 27-49	1580.80	1572.83	41.02%	58.55%	-39.97	0-1
2013-09-15	Cleveland Browns	W 14-6	1540.83	1412.34	75.50%	24.07%	+14.17	1-1
2013-09-22	Houston Texans	W 30-9	1555.00	1573.70	57.05%	42.52%	+40.47	2-1
2013-09-29	@ Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1595.47	1433.95	62.70%	36.87%	-22.53	2-2
2013-10-06	@ Miami Dolphins	W 26-23	1572.94	1530.49	45.89%	53.68%	+19.30	3-2
2013-10-13	Green Bay Packers	L 17-19	1592.24	1576.10	61.86%	37.71%	-18.15	3-3
2013-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-19	1574.09	1436.31	59.47%	40.10%	-21.37	3-4
2013-11-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 18-24	1552.72	1420.26	58.73%	40.84%	-29.85	3-5
2013-11-10	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1522.87	1594.34	49.51%	50.06%	+18.00	4-5
2013-11-17	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-23	1540.87	1534.96	40.73%	58.84%	-14.66	4-6
2013-11-24	New York Jets	W 19-3	1526.21	1384.47	76.86%	22.70%	+18.90	5-6
2013-11-28	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 22-20	1545.11	1527.81	62.02%	37.55%	+11.04	6-6
2013-12-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 29-26	1556.15	1394.33	78.83%	20.74%	+7.47	7-6
2013-12-16	@ Detroit Lions	W 18-16	1563.62	1507.69	47.82%	51.75%	+15.19	8-6
2013-12-22	New England Patriots	L 7-41	1578.81	1634.48	51.78%	47.78%	-62.67	8-7
2013-12-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-34	1516.14	1626.21	26.06%	73.51%	-22.36	8-8
2013-09-08	New England Patriots	L 21-23	1459.66	1591.64	40.91%	58.66%	-12.02	0-1
2013-09-15	Carolina Panthers	W 24-23	1447.64	1489.99	53.69%	45.87%	+9.53	1-1
2013-09-22	@ New York Jets	L 20-27	1457.17	1440.42	42.24%	57.32%	-23.22	1-2
2013-09-29	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1433.95	1595.47	36.87%	62.70%	+22.53	2-2
2013-10-03	@ Cleveland Browns	L 24-37	1456.48	1467.52	38.40%	61.17%	-28.77	2-3
2013-10-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1427.71	1548.46	42.48%	57.09%	-15.28	2-4
2013-10-20	@ Miami Dolphins	W 23-21	1412.43	1511.20	27.33%	72.23%	+21.19	3-4
2013-10-27	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-35	1433.62	1633.52	17.37%	82.20%	-15.34	3-5
2013-11-03	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-23	1418.28	1603.33	33.77%	65.79%	-22.20	3-6
2013-11-10	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-23	1396.08	1421.66	36.44%	63.13%	-27.31	3-7
2013-11-17	New York Jets	W 37-14	1368.77	1433.32	50.51%	49.06%	+48.85	4-7
2013-12-01	Atlanta Falcons	L 31-34	1417.62	1372.63	65.68%	33.89%	-23.60	4-8
2013-12-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-27	1394.02	1398.68	39.27%	60.30%	-37.39	4-9
2013-12-15	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-20	1356.63	1318.68	45.25%	54.32%	+29.83	5-9
2013-12-22	Miami Dolphins	W 19-0	1386.46	1566.20	34.46%	65.11%	+58.87	6-9
2013-12-29	@ New England Patriots	L 20-34	1445.33	1697.15	13.48%	86.08%	-10.51	6-10
2013-09-08	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-12	1512.57	1590.06	48.65%	50.92%	-22.58	0-1
2013-09-15	@ Buffalo Bills	L 23-24	1489.99	1447.64	45.87%	53.69%	-9.53	0-2
2013-09-22	New York Giants	W 38-0	1480.46	1474.43	60.49%	39.08%	+50.06	1-2
2013-10-06	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 6-22	1530.52	1445.99	51.93%	47.63%	-43.12	1-3
2013-10-13	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 35-10	1487.40	1478.47	41.15%	58.42%	+60.61	2-3
2013-10-20	St. Louis Rams	W 30-15	1548.01	1476.34	69.03%	30.54%	+24.59	3-3
2013-10-24	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-13	1572.60	1351.77	70.24%	29.33%	+25.88	4-3
2013-11-03	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-10	1598.48	1469.39	75.56%	24.01%	+24.47	5-3
2013-11-10	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 10-9	1622.95	1651.41	36.05%	63.51%	+13.18	6-3
2013-11-18	New England Patriots	W 24-20	1636.13	1647.57	58.07%	41.50%	+17.24	7-3
2013-11-24	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-16	1653.37	1485.69	63.52%	36.05%	+14.98	8-3
2013-12-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-6	1668.35	1411.21	86.44%	13.13%	+12.54	9-3
2013-12-08	@ New Orleans Saints	L 13-31	1680.89	1639.13	45.79%	53.78%	-40.35	9-4
2013-12-15	New York Jets	W 30-20	1640.54	1351.19	88.41%	11.16%	+7.35	10-4
2013-12-22	New Orleans Saints	W 17-13	1647.89	1634.10	61.54%	38.02%	+15.80	11-4
2013-12-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 21-20	1663.69	1389.25	76.21%	23.36%	+4.87	12-4
2013-09-08	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-21	1523.97	1529.66	58.87%	40.70%	+14.64	1-0
2013-09-15	Minnesota Vikings	W 31-30	1538.61	1490.99	66.02%	33.55%	+6.98	2-0
2013-09-22	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 40-23	1545.59	1448.61	53.72%	45.85%	+39.26	3-0
2013-09-29	@ Detroit Lions	L 32-40	1584.85	1500.99	51.84%	47.73%	-30.44	3-1
2013-10-06	New Orleans Saints	L 18-26	1554.41	1619.59	50.42%	49.15%	-29.60	3-2
2013-10-10	New York Giants	W 27-21	1524.81	1344.99	80.48%	19.09%	+9.73	4-2
2013-10-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 41-45	1534.54	1433.42	54.31%	45.26%	-22.54	4-3
2013-11-04	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-20	1512.00	1634.53	24.70%	74.86%	+41.09	5-3
2013-11-10	Detroit Lions	L 19-21	1553.09	1537.40	61.80%	37.77%	-18.13	5-4
2013-11-17	Baltimore Ravens	W 23-20	1534.96	1540.87	58.84%	40.73%	+14.66	6-4
2013-11-24	@ St. Louis Rams	L 21-42	1549.62	1500.83	46.80%	52.77%	-44.53	6-5
2013-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1505.09	1373.25	58.64%	40.93%	-21.08	6-6
2013-12-09	Dallas Cowboys	W 45-28	1484.01	1550.84	50.18%	49.39%	+42.28	7-6
2013-12-15	@ Cleveland Browns	W 38-31	1526.29	1351.17	64.50%	35.07%	+19.28	8-6
2013-12-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 11-54	1545.57	1523.33	43.02%	56.55%	-58.59	8-7
2013-12-29	Green Bay Packers	L 28-33	1486.98	1437.35	66.27%	33.29%	-30.74	8-8
2013-09-08	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-24	1529.66	1523.97	40.70%	58.87%	-14.64	0-1
2013-09-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-10	1515.02	1470.97	65.56%	34.01%	+22.36	1-1
2013-09-22	Green Bay Packers	W 34-30	1537.38	1566.13	55.63%	43.94%	+18.25	2-1
2013-09-29	@ Cleveland Browns	L 6-17	1555.63	1427.52	58.12%	41.45%	-40.00	2-2
2013-10-06	New England Patriots	W 13-6	1515.63	1655.90	39.76%	59.81%	+32.83	3-2
2013-10-13	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-24	1548.46	1427.71	57.09%	42.48%	+15.29	4-2
2013-10-20	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-24	1563.75	1548.78	41.99%	57.57%	+20.69	5-2
2013-10-27	New York Jets	W 49-9	1584.44	1423.11	78.78%	20.79%	+27.36	6-2
2013-10-31	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-22	1611.80	1473.76	59.50%	40.07%	-17.46	6-3
2013-11-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-20	1594.34	1522.87	50.06%	49.51%	-18.00	6-4
2013-11-17	Cleveland Browns	W 41-20	1576.34	1450.11	75.26%	24.31%	+23.18	7-4
2013-12-01	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-10	1599.52	1491.20	55.33%	44.23%	+24.31	8-4
2013-12-08	Indianapolis Colts	W 42-28	1623.83	1508.16	74.12%	25.44%	+19.80	9-4
2013-12-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-30	1643.63	1486.14	62.16%	37.41%	-40.78	9-5
2013-12-22	Minnesota Vikings	W 42-14	1602.85	1445.93	78.36%	21.21%	+23.36	10-5
2013-12-29	Baltimore Ravens	W 34-17	1626.21	1516.14	73.51%	26.06%	+22.35	11-5
2013-09-08	Miami Dolphins	L 10-23	1453.80	1484.05	55.42%	44.15%	-41.46	0-1
2013-09-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-14	1412.34	1540.83	24.07%	75.50%	-14.17	0-2
2013-09-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 31-27	1398.17	1484.02	28.84%	70.73%	+29.35	1-2
2013-09-29	Cincinnati Bengals	W 17-6	1427.52	1555.63	41.45%	58.12%	+40.00	2-2
2013-10-03	Buffalo Bills	W 37-24	1467.52	1456.48	61.17%	38.40%	+28.77	3-2
2013-10-13	Detroit Lions	L 17-31	1496.29	1503.21	58.70%	40.87%	-45.57	3-3
2013-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-31	1450.72	1594.25	22.52%	77.04%	-19.89	3-4
2013-10-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-23	1430.83	1592.77	20.73%	78.84%	-10.57	3-5
2013-11-03	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-18	1420.26	1552.72	40.84%	58.73%	+29.85	4-5
2013-11-17	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 20-41	1450.11	1576.34	24.31%	75.26%	-23.18	4-6
2013-11-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 11-27	1426.93	1485.11	51.42%	48.14%	-42.69	4-7
2013-12-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 28-32	1384.24	1265.45	74.46%	25.11%	-30.90	4-8
2013-12-08	@ New England Patriots	L 26-27	1353.34	1655.66	10.44%	89.13%	-2.17	4-9
2013-12-15	Chicago Bears	L 31-38	1351.17	1526.29	35.07%	64.50%	-19.28	4-10
2013-12-22	@ New York Jets	L 13-24	1331.89	1343.84	38.27%	61.29%	-26.38	4-11
2013-12-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-20	1305.51	1554.89	13.65%	85.92%	-10.25	4-12
2013-09-08	New York Giants	W 36-31	1488.74	1536.33	52.94%	46.62%	+21.65	1-0
2013-09-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-17	1510.39	1456.71	47.50%	52.07%	-9.86	1-1
2013-09-22	St. Louis Rams	W 31-7	1500.53	1473.41	63.34%	36.23%	+36.89	2-1
2013-09-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-30	1537.42	1472.61	49.10%	50.47%	-30.58	2-2
2013-10-06	Denver Broncos	L 48-51	1506.84	1680.76	35.22%	64.35%	-12.68	2-3
2013-10-13	Washington Redskins	W 31-16	1494.16	1462.05	64.00%	35.57%	+28.64	3-3
2013-10-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 17-3	1522.80	1470.96	47.23%	52.33%	+40.64	4-3
2013-10-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 30-31	1563.44	1528.08	44.88%	54.69%	-9.32	4-4
2013-11-03	Minnesota Vikings	W 27-23	1554.12	1354.58	82.17%	17.40%	+7.24	5-4
2013-11-10	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-49	1561.36	1611.29	33.26%	66.31%	-39.11	5-5
2013-11-24	@ New York Giants	W 24-21	1522.25	1472.50	46.93%	52.63%	+18.92	6-5
2013-11-28	Oakland Raiders	W 31-24	1541.17	1343.56	82.01%	17.56%	+9.67	7-5
2013-12-09	@ Chicago Bears	L 28-45	1550.84	1484.01	49.39%	50.18%	-42.27	7-6
2013-12-15	Green Bay Packers	L 36-37	1508.57	1451.37	67.23%	32.33%	-13.95	7-7
2013-12-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-23	1494.62	1314.11	65.21%	34.36%	+7.14	8-7
2013-12-29	Philadelphia Eagles	L 22-24	1501.76	1581.92	48.26%	51.31%	-14.17	8-8
2013-09-05	Baltimore Ravens	W 49-27	1572.83	1580.80	58.55%	41.02%	+39.97	1-0
2013-09-15	@ New York Giants	W 41-23	1612.80	1514.68	53.88%	45.69%	+40.25	2-0
2013-09-23	Oakland Raiders	W 37-21	1653.05	1431.78	83.90%	15.67%	+13.05	3-0
2013-09-29	Philadelphia Eagles	W 52-20	1666.10	1398.18	87.13%	12.44%	+14.66	4-0
2013-10-06	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 51-48	1680.76	1506.84	64.35%	35.22%	+12.68	5-0
2013-10-13	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 35-19	1693.44	1254.79	94.52%	5.05%	+4.21	6-0
2013-10-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 33-39	1697.65	1568.75	58.23%	41.34%	-29.60	6-1
2013-10-27	Washington Redskins	W 45-21	1668.05	1455.96	83.19%	16.38%	+16.71	7-1
2013-11-10	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-20	1684.76	1500.79	65.65%	33.91%	+19.94	8-1
2013-11-17	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-17	1704.70	1625.54	69.94%	29.63%	+19.49	9-1
2013-11-24	@ New England Patriots	L 31-34	1724.19	1630.33	53.27%	46.30%	-19.15	9-2
2013-12-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 35-28	1705.04	1578.40	57.92%	41.65%	+22.89	10-2
2013-12-08	Tennessee Titans	W 51-28	1727.93	1439.27	88.37%	11.20%	+11.19	11-2
2013-12-12	San Diego Chargers	L 20-27	1739.12	1508.64	84.58%	14.98%	-46.44	11-3
2013-12-22	@ Houston Texans	W 37-13	1692.68	1263.04	88.48%	11.09%	+11.32	12-3
2013-12-29	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-14	1704.00	1274.77	88.45%	11.12%	+10.36	13-3
2013-09-08	Minnesota Vikings	W 34-24	1456.91	1523.38	50.23%	49.34%	+32.39	1-0
2013-09-15	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 21-25	1489.30	1431.64	48.07%	51.50%	-19.96	1-1
2013-09-22	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-20	1469.34	1454.98	41.91%	57.66%	+31.65	2-1
2013-09-29	Chicago Bears	W 40-32	1500.99	1584.85	47.73%	51.84%	+30.44	3-1
2013-10-06	@ Green Bay Packers	L 9-22	1531.43	1547.88	37.66%	61.91%	-28.22	3-2
2013-10-13	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-17	1503.21	1496.29	40.87%	58.70%	+45.57	4-2
2013-10-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1548.78	1563.75	57.57%	41.99%	-20.70	4-3
2013-10-27	Dallas Cowboys	W 31-30	1528.08	1563.44	54.69%	44.88%	+9.32	5-3
2013-11-10	@ Chicago Bears	W 21-19	1537.40	1553.09	37.77%	61.80%	+18.14	6-3
2013-11-17	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-37	1555.54	1448.96	55.09%	44.48%	-36.15	6-4
2013-11-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-24	1519.39	1383.82	76.23%	23.33%	-27.39	6-5
2013-11-28	Green Bay Packers	W 40-10	1492.00	1489.43	60.01%	39.56%	+45.01	7-5
2013-12-08	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-34	1537.01	1553.09	37.71%	61.85%	-29.32	7-6
2013-12-16	Baltimore Ravens	L 16-18	1507.69	1563.62	51.75%	47.82%	-15.19	7-7
2013-12-22	New York Giants	L 20-23	1492.50	1419.96	69.13%	30.43%	-24.84	7-8
2013-12-29	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-14	1467.66	1422.58	46.26%	53.30%	-9.61	7-9
2013-09-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 28-34	1555.67	1581.95	36.34%	63.22%	-18.50	0-1
2013-09-15	Washington Redskins	W 38-20	1537.17	1483.94	66.73%	32.84%	+28.96	1-1
2013-09-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 30-34	1566.13	1537.38	43.94%	55.63%	-18.25	1-2
2013-10-06	Detroit Lions	W 22-9	1547.88	1531.43	61.91%	37.66%	+28.22	2-2
2013-10-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 19-17	1576.10	1592.24	37.71%	61.86%	+18.15	3-2
2013-10-20	Cleveland Browns	W 31-13	1594.25	1450.72	77.04%	22.52%	+19.89	4-2
2013-10-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 44-31	1614.14	1374.98	72.37%	27.19%	+20.39	5-2
2013-11-04	Chicago Bears	L 20-27	1634.53	1512.00	74.86%	24.70%	-41.09	5-3
2013-11-10	Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-27	1593.44	1461.72	75.84%	23.73%	-58.86	5-4
2013-11-17	@ New York Giants	L 13-27	1534.58	1429.94	54.81%	44.76%	-42.56	5-5
2013-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	T 26-26	1492.02	1370.67	74.74%	24.83%	-2.59	5-5
2013-11-28	@ Detroit Lions	L 10-40	1489.43	1492.00	39.56%	60.01%	-45.02	5-6
2013-12-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 22-21	1444.41	1396.22	66.09%	33.48%	+6.96	6-6
2013-12-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 37-36	1451.37	1508.57	32.33%	67.23%	+13.95	7-6
2013-12-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 31-38	1465.32	1526.92	50.93%	48.63%	-27.97	7-7
2013-12-29	@ Chicago Bears	W 33-28	1437.35	1486.98	33.29%	66.27%	+30.74	8-7
2013-09-09	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-28	1538.51	1484.99	47.47%	52.09%	+18.73	1-0
2013-09-15	Tennessee Titans	W 30-24	1557.24	1499.93	67.25%	32.32%	+16.46	2-0
2013-09-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 9-30	1573.70	1555.00	42.52%	57.05%	-40.48	2-1
2013-09-29	Seattle Seahawks	L 20-23	1533.22	1662.85	41.23%	58.33%	-14.83	2-2
2013-10-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-34	1518.39	1547.55	35.96%	63.61%	-41.62	2-3
2013-10-13	St. Louis Rams	L 13-38	1476.77	1404.68	69.08%	30.49%	-71.65	2-4
2013-10-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-17	1405.12	1588.87	18.74%	80.83%	-3.90	2-5
2013-11-03	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-27	1401.22	1598.35	32.24%	67.33%	-11.61	2-6
2013-11-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 24-27	1389.61	1483.65	27.88%	71.69%	-10.04	2-7
2013-11-17	Oakland Raiders	L 23-28	1379.57	1333.27	65.85%	33.72%	-30.55	2-8
2013-11-24	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-13	1349.02	1224.23	75.11%	24.46%	-41.22	2-9
2013-12-01	New England Patriots	L 31-34	1307.80	1649.48	17.15%	82.42%	-6.18	2-10
2013-12-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-27	1301.62	1296.34	40.64%	58.93%	-22.34	2-11
2013-12-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-25	1279.28	1488.35	16.62%	82.95%	-16.24	2-12
2013-12-22	Denver Broncos	L 13-37	1263.04	1692.68	11.09%	88.48%	-11.31	2-13
2013-12-29	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-16	1251.73	1431.74	19.07%	80.50%	-9.73	2-14
2013-09-08	Oakland Raiders	W 21-17	1494.38	1424.72	68.78%	30.78%	+12.80	1-0
2013-09-15	Miami Dolphins	L 20-24	1507.18	1525.52	57.10%	42.47%	-23.70	1-1
2013-09-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 27-7	1483.48	1559.94	29.96%	69.61%	+64.58	2-1
2013-09-29	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 37-3	1548.06	1308.01	72.48%	27.09%	+32.86	3-1
2013-10-06	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-28	1580.92	1677.69	45.88%	53.69%	+27.29	4-1
2013-10-14	@ San Diego Chargers	L 9-19	1608.21	1465.50	60.15%	39.42%	-39.46	4-2
2013-10-20	Denver Broncos	W 39-33	1568.75	1697.65	41.34%	58.23%	+29.60	5-2
2013-11-03	@ Houston Texans	W 27-24	1598.35	1401.22	67.33%	32.24%	+11.61	6-2
2013-11-10	St. Louis Rams	L 8-38	1609.96	1407.14	82.44%	17.13%	-93.69	6-3
2013-11-14	@ Tennessee Titans	W 30-27	1516.27	1458.92	48.03%	51.54%	+18.53	7-3
2013-11-24	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 11-40	1534.80	1513.17	42.93%	56.64%	-48.02	7-4
2013-12-01	Tennessee Titans	W 22-14	1486.78	1460.64	63.20%	36.36%	+21.38	8-4
2013-12-08	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-42	1508.16	1623.83	25.44%	74.12%	-19.81	8-5
2013-12-15	Houston Texans	W 25-3	1488.35	1279.28	82.95%	16.62%	+16.23	9-5
2013-12-22	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 23-7	1504.58	1618.31	25.66%	73.91%	+61.33	10-5
2013-12-29	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-10	1565.91	1271.49	88.70%	10.87%	+10.13	11-5
2013-09-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 2-28	1402.12	1392.15	61.02%	38.54%	-64.56	0-1
2013-09-15	@ Oakland Raiders	L 9-19	1337.56	1411.91	30.21%	69.35%	-19.87	0-2
2013-09-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-45	1317.69	1653.17	8.78%	90.78%	-9.68	0-3
2013-09-29	Indianapolis Colts	L 3-37	1308.01	1548.06	27.09%	72.48%	-32.86	0-4
2013-10-06	@ St. Louis Rams	L 20-34	1275.15	1384.32	26.16%	73.41%	-20.36	0-5
2013-10-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-35	1254.79	1693.44	5.05%	94.52%	-4.21	0-6
2013-10-20	San Diego Chargers	L 6-24	1250.58	1504.96	25.49%	74.07%	-22.50	0-7
2013-10-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 10-42	1228.08	1641.50	8.41%	91.16%	-9.91	0-8
2013-11-10	@ Tennessee Titans	W 29-27	1218.17	1484.46	12.54%	87.03%	+25.54	1-8
2013-11-17	Arizona Cardinals	L 14-27	1243.71	1493.69	25.98%	73.59%	-19.48	1-9
2013-11-24	@ Houston Texans	W 13-6	1224.23	1349.02	24.46%	75.11%	+41.22	2-9
2013-12-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 32-28	1265.45	1384.24	25.11%	74.46%	+30.89	3-9
2013-12-05	Houston Texans	W 27-20	1296.34	1301.62	58.93%	40.64%	+22.34	4-9
2013-12-15	Buffalo Bills	L 20-27	1318.68	1356.63	54.32%	45.25%	-29.82	4-10
2013-12-22	Tennessee Titans	L 16-20	1288.86	1414.37	41.81%	57.76%	-17.37	4-11
2013-12-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-30	1271.49	1565.91	10.87%	88.70%	-10.13	4-12
2013-09-08	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-2	1392.15	1402.12	38.54%	61.02%	+64.56	1-0
2013-09-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 17-16	1456.71	1510.39	52.07%	47.50%	+9.86	2-0
2013-09-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-16	1466.57	1434.36	44.43%	55.14%	+36.19	3-0
2013-09-29	New York Giants	W 31-7	1502.76	1424.37	69.84%	29.72%	+30.28	4-0
2013-10-06	@ Tennessee Titans	W 26-17	1533.04	1534.67	39.69%	59.88%	+37.27	5-0
2013-10-13	Oakland Raiders	W 24-7	1570.31	1417.69	77.94%	21.62%	+18.56	6-0
2013-10-20	Houston Texans	W 17-16	1588.87	1405.12	80.83%	18.74%	+3.90	7-0
2013-10-27	Cleveland Browns	W 23-17	1592.77	1430.83	78.84%	20.73%	+10.56	8-0
2013-11-03	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-13	1603.33	1418.28	65.79%	33.77%	+22.21	9-0
2013-11-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-27	1625.54	1704.70	29.63%	69.94%	-19.49	9-1
2013-11-24	San Diego Chargers	L 38-41	1606.05	1463.55	76.94%	22.63%	-27.65	9-2
2013-12-01	Denver Broncos	L 28-35	1578.40	1705.04	41.65%	57.92%	-22.89	9-3
2013-12-08	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-10	1555.51	1360.52	67.06%	32.51%	+39.99	10-3
2013-12-15	@ Oakland Raiders	W 56-31	1595.50	1306.77	77.64%	21.92%	+22.81	11-3
2013-12-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 7-23	1618.31	1504.58	73.91%	25.66%	-61.33	11-4
2013-12-29	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1556.98	1564.27	38.91%	60.66%	-4.67	11-5
2013-09-08	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-10	1484.05	1453.80	44.15%	55.42%	+41.47	1-0
2013-09-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 24-20	1525.52	1507.18	42.47%	57.10%	+23.69	2-0
2013-09-22	Atlanta Falcons	W 27-23	1549.21	1556.30	58.67%	40.89%	+17.00	3-0
2013-09-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-38	1566.21	1583.88	37.50%	62.07%	-35.72	3-1
2013-10-06	Baltimore Ravens	L 23-26	1530.49	1572.94	53.68%	45.89%	-19.29	3-2
2013-10-20	Buffalo Bills	L 21-23	1511.20	1412.43	72.23%	27.33%	-21.19	3-3
2013-10-27	@ New England Patriots	L 17-27	1490.01	1612.63	24.69%	74.88%	-16.25	3-4
2013-10-31	Cincinnati Bengals	W 22-20	1473.76	1611.80	40.07%	59.50%	+17.46	4-4
2013-11-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 19-22	1491.22	1323.29	63.56%	36.01%	-22.84	4-5
2013-11-17	San Diego Chargers	W 20-16	1468.38	1480.85	57.92%	41.64%	+17.31	5-5
2013-11-24	Carolina Panthers	L 16-20	1485.69	1653.37	36.05%	63.52%	-14.99	5-6
2013-12-01	@ New York Jets	W 23-3	1470.70	1365.58	54.88%	44.69%	+41.51	6-6
2013-12-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-28	1512.21	1516.77	39.28%	60.29%	+30.64	7-6
2013-12-15	New England Patriots	W 24-20	1542.85	1657.83	43.29%	56.28%	+23.35	8-6
2013-12-22	@ Buffalo Bills	L 0-19	1566.20	1386.46	65.11%	34.46%	-58.87	8-7
2013-12-29	New York Jets	L 7-20	1507.33	1370.21	76.39%	23.17%	-57.14	8-8
2013-09-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 24-34	1523.38	1456.91	49.34%	50.23%	-32.39	0-1
2013-09-15	@ Chicago Bears	L 30-31	1490.99	1538.61	33.55%	66.02%	-6.97	0-2
2013-09-22	Cleveland Browns	L 27-31	1484.02	1398.17	70.73%	28.84%	-29.35	0-3
2013-09-29	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-27	1454.67	1409.35	56.27%	43.30%	+23.80	1-3
2013-10-13	Carolina Panthers	L 10-35	1478.47	1487.40	58.42%	41.15%	-60.60	1-4
2013-10-21	@ New York Giants	L 7-23	1417.87	1335.25	51.66%	47.91%	-42.89	1-5
2013-10-27	Green Bay Packers	L 31-44	1374.98	1614.14	27.19%	72.37%	-20.40	1-6
2013-11-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 23-27	1354.58	1554.12	17.40%	82.17%	-7.24	1-7
2013-11-07	Washington Redskins	W 34-27	1347.34	1465.92	42.78%	56.79%	+31.17	2-7
2013-11-17	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-41	1378.51	1726.62	8.22%	91.35%	-7.84	2-8
2013-11-24	@ Green Bay Packers	T 26-26	1370.67	1492.02	24.83%	74.74%	+2.58	2-8
2013-12-01	Chicago Bears	W 23-20	1373.25	1505.09	40.93%	58.64%	+21.08	3-8
2013-12-08	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 26-29	1394.33	1556.15	20.74%	78.83%	-7.48	3-9
2013-12-15	Philadelphia Eagles	W 48-30	1386.85	1582.42	32.43%	67.13%	+59.08	4-9
2013-12-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-42	1445.93	1602.85	21.21%	78.36%	-23.35	4-10
2013-12-29	Detroit Lions	W 14-13	1422.58	1467.66	53.30%	46.26%	+9.61	5-10
2013-09-08	@ Buffalo Bills	W 23-21	1591.64	1459.66	58.66%	40.91%	+12.02	1-0
2013-09-12	New York Jets	W 13-10	1603.66	1448.12	78.23%	21.34%	+7.69	2-0
2013-09-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-3	1611.35	1444.76	79.28%	20.29%	+18.89	3-0
2013-09-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-23	1630.24	1539.31	52.85%	46.72%	+25.66	4-0
2013-10-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 6-13	1655.90	1515.63	59.81%	39.76%	-32.83	4-1
2013-10-13	New Orleans Saints	W 30-27	1623.07	1649.20	56.00%	43.57%	+15.67	5-1
2013-10-20	@ New York Jets	L 27-30	1638.74	1397.00	72.67%	26.90%	-26.11	5-2
2013-10-27	Miami Dolphins	W 27-17	1612.63	1490.01	74.88%	24.69%	+16.25	6-2
2013-11-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 55-31	1628.88	1440.35	81.24%	18.32%	+18.69	7-2
2013-11-18	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-24	1647.57	1636.13	41.50%	58.07%	-17.24	7-3
2013-11-24	Denver Broncos	W 34-31	1630.33	1724.19	46.30%	53.27%	+19.15	8-3
2013-12-01	@ Houston Texans	W 34-31	1649.48	1307.80	82.42%	17.15%	+6.18	9-3
2013-12-08	Cleveland Browns	W 27-26	1655.66	1353.34	89.13%	10.44%	+2.17	10-3
2013-12-15	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-24	1657.83	1542.85	56.28%	43.29%	-23.35	10-4
2013-12-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 41-7	1634.48	1578.81	47.78%	51.78%	+62.67	11-4
2013-12-29	Buffalo Bills	W 34-20	1697.15	1445.33	86.08%	13.48%	+10.51	12-4
2013-09-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-17	1519.48	1560.99	53.81%	45.75%	+23.28	1-0
2013-09-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 16-14	1542.76	1458.77	51.85%	47.71%	+14.01	2-0
2013-09-22	Arizona Cardinals	W 31-7	1556.77	1451.60	72.96%	26.61%	+27.11	3-0
2013-09-30	Miami Dolphins	W 38-17	1583.88	1566.21	62.07%	37.50%	+35.71	4-0
2013-10-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-18	1619.59	1554.41	49.15%	50.42%	+29.61	5-0
2013-10-13	@ New England Patriots	L 27-30	1649.20	1623.07	43.57%	56.00%	-15.68	5-1
2013-10-27	Buffalo Bills	W 35-17	1633.52	1433.62	82.20%	17.37%	+15.34	6-1
2013-11-03	@ New York Jets	L 20-26	1648.86	1395.75	73.93%	25.63%	-37.57	6-2
2013-11-10	Dallas Cowboys	W 49-17	1611.29	1561.36	66.31%	33.26%	+39.11	7-2
2013-11-17	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-20	1650.40	1638.23	61.32%	38.24%	+13.77	8-2
2013-11-21	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 17-13	1664.17	1382.02	76.99%	22.58%	+9.39	9-2
2013-12-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-34	1673.56	1734.46	31.87%	67.70%	-34.43	9-3
2013-12-08	Carolina Panthers	W 31-13	1639.13	1680.89	53.78%	45.79%	+40.35	10-3
2013-12-15	@ St. Louis Rams	L 16-27	1679.48	1493.24	65.94%	33.62%	-45.38	10-4
2013-12-22	@ Carolina Panthers	L 13-17	1634.10	1647.89	38.02%	61.54%	-15.80	10-5
2013-12-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-17	1618.30	1396.61	83.93%	15.64%	+16.28	11-5
2013-09-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 31-36	1536.33	1488.74	46.62%	52.94%	-21.65	0-1
2013-09-15	Denver Broncos	L 23-41	1514.68	1612.80	45.69%	53.88%	-40.25	0-2
2013-09-22	@ Carolina Panthers	L 0-38	1474.43	1480.46	39.08%	60.49%	-50.06	0-3
2013-09-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-31	1424.37	1502.76	29.72%	69.84%	-30.28	0-4
2013-10-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-36	1394.09	1383.52	61.11%	38.46%	-49.10	0-5
2013-10-10	@ Chicago Bears	L 21-27	1344.99	1524.81	19.09%	80.48%	-9.74	0-6
2013-10-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-7	1335.25	1417.87	47.91%	51.66%	+42.89	1-6
2013-10-27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 15-7	1378.14	1430.31	32.97%	66.60%	+39.08	2-6
2013-11-10	Oakland Raiders	W 24-20	1417.22	1345.99	68.97%	30.59%	+12.72	3-6
2013-11-17	Green Bay Packers	W 27-13	1429.94	1534.58	44.76%	54.81%	+42.56	4-6
2013-11-24	Dallas Cowboys	L 21-24	1472.50	1522.25	52.63%	46.93%	-18.92	4-7
2013-12-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-17	1453.58	1388.20	49.18%	50.39%	+27.67	5-7
2013-12-08	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-37	1481.25	1466.89	41.91%	57.66%	-41.75	5-8
2013-12-15	Seattle Seahawks	L 0-23	1439.50	1753.10	19.57%	80.00%	-19.54	5-9
2013-12-22	@ Detroit Lions	W 23-20	1419.96	1492.50	30.43%	69.13%	+24.84	6-9
2013-12-29	Washington Redskins	W 20-6	1444.80	1306.97	76.47%	23.10%	+17.99	7-9
2013-09-08	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 18-17	1438.99	1467.91	55.61%	43.96%	+9.13	1-0
2013-09-12	@ New England Patriots	L 10-13	1448.12	1603.66	21.34%	78.23%	-7.70	1-1
2013-09-22	Buffalo Bills	W 27-20	1440.42	1457.17	57.32%	42.24%	+23.22	2-1
2013-09-29	@ Tennessee Titans	L 13-38	1463.64	1498.01	35.27%	64.29%	-36.66	2-2
2013-10-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 30-28	1426.98	1513.64	28.74%	70.83%	+20.78	3-2
2013-10-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-19	1447.76	1385.55	67.86%	31.71%	-50.76	3-3
2013-10-20	New England Patriots	W 30-27	1397.00	1638.74	26.90%	72.67%	+26.11	4-3
2013-10-27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 9-49	1423.11	1584.44	20.79%	78.78%	-27.36	4-4
2013-11-03	New Orleans Saints	W 26-20	1395.75	1648.86	25.63%	73.93%	+37.57	5-4
2013-11-17	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-37	1433.32	1368.77	49.06%	50.51%	-48.85	5-5
2013-11-24	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 3-19	1384.47	1526.21	22.70%	76.86%	-18.89	5-6
2013-12-01	Miami Dolphins	L 3-23	1365.58	1470.70	44.69%	54.88%	-41.51	5-7
2013-12-08	Oakland Raiders	W 37-27	1324.07	1333.89	58.29%	41.27%	+27.12	6-7
2013-12-15	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-30	1351.19	1640.54	11.16%	88.41%	-7.35	6-8
2013-12-22	Cleveland Browns	W 24-13	1343.84	1331.89	61.29%	38.27%	+26.37	7-8
2013-12-29	@ Miami Dolphins	W 20-7	1370.21	1507.33	23.17%	76.39%	+57.15	8-8
2013-09-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-21	1424.72	1494.38	30.78%	68.78%	-12.81	0-1
2013-09-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 19-9	1411.91	1337.56	69.35%	30.21%	+19.87	1-1
2013-09-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-37	1431.78	1653.05	15.67%	83.90%	-13.05	1-2
2013-09-29	Washington Redskins	L 14-24	1418.73	1423.33	59.02%	40.55%	-38.72	1-3
2013-10-06	San Diego Chargers	W 27-17	1380.01	1503.19	42.14%	57.43%	+37.68	2-3
2013-10-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-24	1417.69	1570.31	21.62%	77.94%	-18.55	2-4
2013-10-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-18	1399.14	1457.68	51.37%	48.20%	+17.33	3-4
2013-11-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-49	1416.47	1391.24	63.08%	36.48%	-70.48	3-5
2013-11-10	@ New York Giants	L 20-24	1345.99	1417.22	30.59%	68.97%	-12.72	3-6
2013-11-17	@ Houston Texans	W 28-23	1333.27	1379.57	33.72%	65.85%	+30.54	4-6
2013-11-24	Tennessee Titans	L 19-23	1363.81	1440.39	48.78%	50.79%	-20.25	4-7
2013-11-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 24-31	1343.56	1541.17	17.56%	82.01%	-9.67	4-8
2013-12-08	@ New York Jets	L 27-37	1333.89	1324.07	41.27%	58.29%	-27.12	4-9
2013-12-15	Kansas City Chiefs	L 31-56	1306.77	1595.50	21.92%	77.64%	-22.81	4-10
2013-12-22	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-26	1283.96	1555.08	12.24%	87.33%	-9.19	4-11
2013-12-29	Denver Broncos	L 14-34	1274.77	1704.00	11.12%	88.45%	-10.35	4-12
2013-09-09	@ Washington Redskins	W 33-27	1418.33	1520.87	26.90%	72.66%	+36.92	1-0
2013-09-15	San Diego Chargers	L 30-33	1455.25	1466.26	58.13%	41.44%	-20.89	1-1
2013-09-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 16-26	1434.36	1466.57	55.14%	44.43%	-36.18	1-2
2013-09-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-52	1398.18	1666.10	12.44%	87.13%	-14.66	1-3
2013-10-06	@ New York Giants	W 36-21	1383.52	1394.09	38.46%	61.11%	+49.10	2-3
2013-10-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-20	1432.62	1404.37	43.87%	55.70%	+38.34	3-3
2013-10-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 3-17	1470.96	1522.80	52.33%	47.23%	-40.65	3-4
2013-10-27	New York Giants	L 7-15	1430.31	1378.14	66.60%	32.97%	-39.07	3-5
2013-11-03	@ Oakland Raiders	W 49-20	1391.24	1416.47	36.48%	63.08%	+70.48	4-5
2013-11-10	@ Green Bay Packers	W 27-13	1461.72	1593.44	23.73%	75.84%	+58.86	5-5
2013-11-17	Washington Redskins	W 24-16	1520.58	1434.75	70.73%	28.84%	+16.96	6-5
2013-12-01	Arizona Cardinals	W 24-21	1537.54	1561.20	56.35%	43.22%	+15.55	7-5
2013-12-08	Detroit Lions	W 34-20	1553.09	1537.01	61.85%	37.71%	+29.33	8-5
2013-12-15	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 30-48	1582.42	1386.85	67.13%	32.43%	-59.09	8-6
2013-12-22	Chicago Bears	W 54-11	1523.33	1545.57	56.55%	43.02%	+58.59	9-6
2013-12-29	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 24-22	1581.92	1501.76	51.31%	48.26%	+14.18	10-6
2013-09-08	Tennessee Titans	L 9-16	1506.86	1464.03	65.40%	34.17%	-35.89	0-1
2013-09-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-20	1470.97	1515.02	34.01%	65.56%	-22.36	0-2
2013-09-22	Chicago Bears	L 23-40	1448.61	1545.59	45.85%	53.72%	-39.26	0-3
2013-09-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 27-34	1409.35	1454.67	43.30%	56.27%	-23.80	0-4
2013-10-13	@ New York Jets	W 19-6	1385.55	1447.76	31.71%	67.86%	+50.76	1-4
2013-10-20	Baltimore Ravens	W 19-16	1436.31	1574.09	40.10%	59.47%	+21.37	2-4
2013-10-27	@ Oakland Raiders	L 18-21	1457.68	1399.14	48.20%	51.37%	-17.33	2-5
2013-11-03	@ New England Patriots	L 31-55	1440.35	1628.88	18.32%	81.24%	-18.69	2-6
2013-11-10	Buffalo Bills	W 23-10	1421.66	1396.08	63.13%	36.44%	+27.30	3-6
2013-11-17	Detroit Lions	W 37-27	1448.96	1555.54	44.48%	55.09%	+36.15	4-6
2013-11-24	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-11	1485.11	1426.93	48.14%	51.42%	+42.70	5-6
2013-11-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 20-22	1527.81	1545.11	37.55%	62.02%	-11.04	5-7
2013-12-08	Miami Dolphins	L 28-34	1516.77	1512.21	60.29%	39.28%	-30.63	5-8
2013-12-15	Cincinnati Bengals	W 30-20	1486.14	1643.63	37.41%	62.16%	+40.78	6-8
2013-12-22	@ Green Bay Packers	W 38-31	1526.92	1465.32	48.63%	50.93%	+27.97	7-8
2013-12-29	Cleveland Browns	W 20-7	1554.89	1305.51	85.92%	13.65%	+10.25	8-8
2013-09-09	Houston Texans	L 28-31	1484.99	1538.51	52.09%	47.47%	-18.73	0-1
2013-09-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 33-30	1466.26	1455.25	41.44%	58.13%	+20.89	1-1
2013-09-22	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-20	1487.15	1483.47	40.42%	59.15%	-14.54	1-2
2013-09-29	Dallas Cowboys	W 30-21	1472.61	1537.42	50.47%	49.10%	+30.58	2-2
2013-10-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 17-27	1503.19	1380.01	57.43%	42.14%	-37.69	2-3
2013-10-14	Indianapolis Colts	W 19-9	1465.50	1608.21	39.42%	60.15%	+39.46	3-3
2013-10-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-6	1504.96	1250.58	74.07%	25.49%	+22.51	4-3
2013-11-03	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-30	1527.47	1439.25	52.46%	47.10%	-26.68	4-4
2013-11-10	Denver Broncos	L 20-28	1500.79	1684.76	33.91%	65.65%	-19.94	4-5
2013-11-17	@ Miami Dolphins	L 16-20	1480.85	1468.38	41.64%	57.92%	-17.30	4-6
2013-11-24	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 41-38	1463.55	1606.05	22.63%	76.94%	+27.65	5-6
2013-12-01	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-17	1491.20	1599.52	44.23%	55.33%	-24.31	5-7
2013-12-08	New York Giants	W 37-14	1466.89	1481.25	57.66%	41.91%	+41.75	6-7
2013-12-12	@ Denver Broncos	W 27-20	1508.64	1739.12	14.98%	84.58%	+46.44	7-7
2013-12-22	Oakland Raiders	W 26-13	1555.08	1283.96	87.33%	12.24%	+9.19	8-7
2013-12-29	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-24	1564.27	1556.98	60.66%	38.91%	+4.67	9-7
2013-09-08	Green Bay Packers	W 34-28	1581.95	1555.67	63.22%	36.34%	+18.51	1-0
2013-09-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-29	1600.46	1612.65	38.24%	61.33%	-40.52	1-1
2013-09-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 7-27	1559.94	1483.48	69.61%	29.96%	-64.58	1-2
2013-09-26	@ St. Louis Rams	W 35-11	1495.36	1436.52	48.24%	51.33%	+52.19	2-2
2013-10-06	Houston Texans	W 34-3	1547.55	1518.39	63.61%	35.96%	+41.62	3-2
2013-10-13	Arizona Cardinals	W 32-20	1589.17	1489.11	72.38%	27.19%	+19.59	4-2
2013-10-20	@ Tennessee Titans	W 31-17	1608.76	1485.52	57.44%	42.13%	+32.74	5-2
2013-10-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 42-10	1641.50	1228.08	91.16%	8.41%	+9.91	6-2
2013-11-10	Carolina Panthers	L 9-10	1651.41	1622.95	63.51%	36.05%	-13.18	6-3
2013-11-17	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-23	1638.23	1650.40	38.24%	61.32%	-13.76	6-4
2013-11-25	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-6	1624.47	1417.78	68.52%	31.05%	+29.58	7-4
2013-12-01	St. Louis Rams	W 23-13	1654.05	1545.36	73.35%	26.21%	+17.25	8-4
2013-12-08	Seattle Seahawks	W 19-17	1671.30	1768.89	45.76%	53.81%	+15.79	9-4
2013-12-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 33-14	1687.09	1436.07	73.70%	25.86%	+23.45	10-4
2013-12-23	Atlanta Falcons	W 34-24	1710.54	1395.69	89.79%	9.78%	+6.44	11-4
2013-12-29	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-20	1716.98	1638.33	51.09%	48.48%	+17.44	12-4
2013-09-08	@ Carolina Panthers	W 12-7	1590.06	1512.57	50.92%	48.65%	+22.59	1-0
2013-09-15	San Francisco 49ers	W 29-3	1612.65	1600.46	61.33%	38.24%	+40.52	2-0
2013-09-22	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 45-17	1653.17	1317.69	90.78%	8.78%	+9.68	3-0
2013-09-29	@ Houston Texans	W 23-20	1662.85	1533.22	58.33%	41.23%	+14.84	4-0
2013-10-06	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 28-34	1677.69	1580.92	53.69%	45.88%	-27.30	4-1
2013-10-13	Tennessee Titans	W 20-13	1650.39	1497.40	77.98%	21.59%	+11.89	5-1
2013-10-17	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 34-22	1662.28	1469.52	66.78%	32.79%	+23.62	6-1
2013-10-28	@ St. Louis Rams	W 14-9	1685.90	1451.74	71.80%	27.77%	+12.91	7-1
2013-11-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-24	1698.81	1325.89	92.36%	7.20%	+2.60	8-1
2013-11-10	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 33-10	1701.41	1444.92	74.30%	25.26%	+25.21	9-1
2013-11-17	Minnesota Vikings	W 41-20	1726.62	1378.51	91.35%	8.22%	+7.84	10-1
2013-12-02	New Orleans Saints	W 34-7	1734.46	1673.56	67.70%	31.87%	+34.43	11-1
2013-12-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-19	1768.89	1671.30	53.81%	45.76%	-15.79	11-2
2013-12-15	@ New York Giants	W 23-0	1753.10	1439.50	80.00%	19.57%	+19.54	12-2
2013-12-22	Arizona Cardinals	L 10-17	1772.64	1594.23	80.35%	19.21%	-44.11	12-3
2013-12-29	St. Louis Rams	W 27-9	1728.53	1554.63	79.95%	19.62%	+17.33	13-3
2013-09-08	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-24	1479.33	1444.31	64.38%	35.19%	+12.67	1-0
2013-09-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-31	1492.00	1537.71	33.80%	65.77%	-18.59	1-1
2013-09-22	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-31	1473.41	1500.53	36.23%	63.34%	-36.89	1-2
2013-09-26	San Francisco 49ers	L 11-35	1436.52	1495.36	51.33%	48.24%	-52.20	1-3
2013-10-06	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-20	1384.32	1275.15	73.41%	26.16%	+20.36	2-3
2013-10-13	@ Houston Texans	W 38-13	1404.68	1476.77	30.49%	69.08%	+71.66	3-3
2013-10-20	@ Carolina Panthers	L 15-30	1476.34	1548.01	30.54%	69.03%	-24.60	3-4
2013-10-28	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-14	1451.74	1685.90	27.77%	71.80%	-12.91	3-5
2013-11-03	Tennessee Titans	L 21-28	1438.83	1452.77	57.72%	41.85%	-31.69	3-6
2013-11-10	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 38-8	1407.14	1609.96	17.13%	82.44%	+93.69	4-6
2013-11-24	Chicago Bears	W 42-21	1500.83	1549.62	52.77%	46.80%	+44.53	5-6
2013-12-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-23	1545.36	1654.05	26.21%	73.35%	-17.25	5-7
2013-12-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 10-30	1528.11	1545.65	37.52%	62.05%	-34.87	5-8
2013-12-15	New Orleans Saints	W 27-16	1493.24	1679.48	33.62%	65.94%	+45.38	6-8
2013-12-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-13	1538.62	1412.62	75.23%	24.33%	+16.01	7-8
2013-12-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 9-27	1554.63	1728.53	19.62%	79.95%	-17.33	7-9
2013-09-08	@ New York Jets	L 17-18	1467.91	1438.99	43.96%	55.61%	-9.14	0-1
2013-09-15	New Orleans Saints	L 14-16	1458.77	1542.76	47.71%	51.85%	-14.01	0-2
2013-09-22	@ New England Patriots	L 3-23	1444.76	1611.35	20.29%	79.28%	-18.88	0-3
2013-09-29	Arizona Cardinals	L 10-13	1425.88	1424.49	59.85%	39.72%	-21.51	0-4
2013-10-13	Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-31	1404.37	1432.62	55.70%	43.87%	-38.34	0-5
2013-10-20	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 23-31	1366.03	1492.87	24.24%	75.32%	-14.26	0-6
2013-10-24	Carolina Panthers	L 13-31	1351.77	1572.60	29.33%	70.24%	-25.88	0-7
2013-11-03	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-27	1325.89	1698.81	7.20%	92.36%	-2.60	0-8
2013-11-11	Miami Dolphins	W 22-19	1323.29	1491.22	36.01%	63.56%	+22.83	1-8
2013-11-17	Atlanta Falcons	W 41-28	1346.12	1419.72	49.21%	50.36%	+37.70	2-8
2013-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-21	1383.82	1519.39	23.33%	76.23%	+27.39	3-8
2013-12-01	@ Carolina Panthers	L 6-27	1411.21	1668.35	13.13%	86.44%	-12.53	3-9
2013-12-08	Buffalo Bills	W 27-6	1398.68	1394.02	60.30%	39.27%	+37.39	4-9
2013-12-15	San Francisco 49ers	L 14-33	1436.07	1687.09	25.86%	73.70%	-23.45	4-10
2013-12-22	@ St. Louis Rams	L 13-23	1412.62	1538.62	24.33%	75.23%	-16.01	4-11
2013-12-29	@ New Orleans Saints	L 17-42	1396.61	1618.30	15.64%	83.93%	-16.28	4-12
2013-09-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-9	1464.03	1506.86	34.17%	65.40%	+35.90	1-0
2013-09-15	@ Houston Texans	L 24-30	1499.93	1557.24	32.32%	67.25%	-16.46	1-1
2013-09-22	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1483.47	1487.15	59.15%	40.42%	+14.54	2-1
2013-09-29	New York Jets	W 38-13	1498.01	1463.64	64.29%	35.27%	+36.66	3-1
2013-10-06	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-26	1534.67	1533.04	59.88%	39.69%	-37.27	3-2
2013-10-13	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-20	1497.40	1650.39	21.59%	77.98%	-11.88	3-3
2013-10-20	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-31	1485.52	1608.76	42.13%	57.44%	-32.75	3-4
2013-11-03	@ St. Louis Rams	W 28-21	1452.77	1438.83	41.85%	57.72%	+31.69	4-4
2013-11-10	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 27-29	1484.46	1218.17	87.03%	12.54%	-25.54	4-5
2013-11-14	Indianapolis Colts	L 27-30	1458.92	1516.27	51.54%	48.03%	-18.53	4-6
2013-11-24	@ Oakland Raiders	W 23-19	1440.39	1363.81	50.79%	48.78%	+20.25	5-6
2013-12-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 14-22	1460.64	1486.78	36.36%	63.20%	-21.37	5-7
2013-12-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 28-51	1439.27	1727.93	11.20%	88.37%	-11.19	5-8
2013-12-15	Arizona Cardinals	L 34-37	1428.08	1580.52	38.09%	61.47%	-13.71	5-9
2013-12-22	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-16	1414.37	1288.86	57.76%	41.81%	+17.37	6-9
2013-12-29	Houston Texans	W 16-10	1431.74	1251.73	80.50%	19.07%	+9.72	7-9
2013-09-09	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-33	1520.87	1418.33	72.66%	26.90%	-36.93	0-1
2013-09-15	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-38	1483.94	1537.17	32.84%	66.73%	-28.96	0-2
2013-09-22	Detroit Lions	L 20-27	1454.98	1469.34	57.66%	41.91%	-31.65	0-3
2013-09-29	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-14	1423.33	1418.73	40.55%	59.02%	+38.72	1-3
2013-10-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 16-31	1462.05	1494.16	35.57%	64.00%	-28.63	1-4
2013-10-20	Chicago Bears	W 45-41	1433.42	1534.54	45.26%	54.31%	+22.54	2-4
2013-10-27	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-45	1455.96	1668.05	16.38%	83.19%	-16.71	2-5
2013-11-03	San Diego Chargers	W 30-24	1439.25	1527.47	47.10%	52.46%	+26.67	3-5
2013-11-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 27-34	1465.92	1347.34	56.79%	42.78%	-31.17	3-6
2013-11-17	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 16-24	1434.75	1520.58	28.84%	70.73%	-16.97	3-7
2013-11-25	San Francisco 49ers	L 6-27	1417.78	1624.47	31.05%	68.52%	-29.58	3-8
2013-12-01	New York Giants	L 17-24	1388.20	1453.58	50.39%	49.18%	-27.68	3-9
2013-12-08	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-45	1360.52	1555.51	32.51%	67.06%	-39.98	3-10
2013-12-15	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 26-27	1320.54	1389.26	30.90%	68.67%	-6.43	3-11
2013-12-22	Dallas Cowboys	L 23-24	1314.11	1494.62	34.36%	65.21%	-7.14	3-12
2013-12-29	@ New York Giants	L 6-20	1306.97	1444.80	23.10%	76.47%	-17.98	3-13

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2014-01-12	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-23	1668.56	1743.14	49.28%	50.72%	-36.73	0-1
2014-01-05	San Diego Chargers	L 10-27	1648.56	1568.94	70.24%	29.76%	-59.87	0-1
2014-01-12	San Diego Chargers	W 24-17	1714.36	1628.80	70.95%	29.05%	+15.88	1-0
2014-01-19	New England Patriots	W 26-16	1730.24	1731.06	59.77%	40.23%	+26.30	2-0
2014-02-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 8-43	1756.54	1783.73	46.09%	53.91%	-56.37	2-1
2014-01-05	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-23	1468.09	1734.42	24.37%	75.63%	-8.72	0-1
2014-01-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 45-44	1576.04	1552.31	63.11%	36.89%	+7.62	1-0
2014-01-11	@ New England Patriots	L 22-43	1583.66	1707.66	24.71%	75.29%	-23.40	1-1
2014-01-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 44-45	1552.31	1576.04	36.89%	63.11%	-7.63	0-1
2014-01-11	Indianapolis Colts	W 43-22	1707.66	1583.66	75.29%	24.71%	+23.40	1-0
2014-01-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-26	1731.06	1730.24	40.23%	59.77%	-26.30	1-1
2014-01-04	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-24	1634.58	1596.10	45.54%	54.46%	+15.92	1-0
2014-01-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 15-23	1650.50	1745.86	27.90%	72.10%	-16.31	1-1
2014-01-04	New Orleans Saints	L 24-26	1596.10	1634.58	54.46%	45.54%	-15.92	0-1
2014-01-05	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-10	1568.94	1648.56	29.76%	70.24%	+59.86	1-0
2014-01-12	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-24	1628.80	1714.36	29.05%	70.95%	-15.89	1-1
2014-01-05	@ Green Bay Packers	W 23-20	1734.42	1468.09	75.63%	24.37%	+8.72	1-0
2014-01-12	@ Carolina Panthers	W 23-10	1743.14	1668.56	50.72%	49.28%	+36.73	2-0
2014-01-19	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-23	1779.87	1762.17	42.59%	57.41%	-21.56	2-1
2014-01-11	New Orleans Saints	W 23-15	1745.86	1650.50	72.10%	27.90%	+16.31	1-0
2014-01-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-17	1762.17	1779.87	57.41%	42.59%	+21.56	2-0
2014-02-02	@ Denver Broncos	W 43-8	1783.73	1756.54	53.91%	46.09%	+56.37	3-0

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2013-11-10	12.54%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1218.17	29	@ Tennessee Titans	1484.46	27
2	2013-12-12	14.98%	San Diego Chargers	1508.64	27	@ Denver Broncos	1739.12	20
3	2013-11-10	17.13%	St. Louis Rams	1407.14	38	@ Indianapolis Colts	1609.96	8
4	2013-12-22	19.21%	Arizona Cardinals	1594.23	17	@ Seattle Seahawks	1772.64	10
5	2013-11-24	22.63%	San Diego Chargers	1463.55	41	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1606.05	38
6	2013-12-29	23.17%	New York Jets	1370.21	20	@ Miami Dolphins	1507.33	7
7	2013-11-24	23.33%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1383.82	24	@ Detroit Lions	1519.39	21
8	2013-11-10	23.73%	Philadelphia Eagles	1461.72	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1593.44	13
9	2013-11-24	24.46%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1224.23	13	@ Houston Texans	1349.02	6
10	2013-11-04	24.70%	Chicago Bears	1512.00	27	@ Green Bay Packers	1634.53	20
11	2013-12-01	25.11%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1265.45	32	@ Cleveland Browns	1384.24	28
12	2013-11-03	25.63%	@ New York Jets	1395.75	26	New Orleans Saints	1648.86	20
13	2013-12-22	25.66%	Indianapolis Colts	1504.58	23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1618.31	7
14	2013-09-09	26.90%	Philadelphia Eagles	1418.33	33	@ Washington Redskins	1520.87	27
15	2013-10-20	26.90%	@ New York Jets	1397.00	30	New England Patriots	1638.74	27
16	2013-10-20	27.33%	Buffalo Bills	1412.43	23	@ Miami Dolphins	1511.20	21
17	2013-10-07	28.74%	New York Jets	1426.98	30	@ Atlanta Falcons	1513.64	28
18	2013-09-22	28.84%	Cleveland Browns	1398.17	31	@ Minnesota Vikings	1484.02	27
19	2014-01-05 *	29.76%	San Diego Chargers	1568.94	27	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1648.56	10
20	2013-09-22	29.96%	Indianapolis Colts	1483.48	27	@ San Francisco 49ers	1559.94	7
21	2013-12-22	30.43%	New York Giants	1419.96	23	@ Detroit Lions	1492.50	20
22	2013-10-13	30.49%	St. Louis Rams	1404.68	38	@ Houston Texans	1476.77	13
23	2013-10-13	31.71%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1385.55	19	@ New York Jets	1447.76	6
24	2013-12-15	32.33%	Green Bay Packers	1451.37	37	@ Dallas Cowboys	1508.57	36
25	2013-12-15	32.43%	@ Minnesota Vikings	1386.85	48	Philadelphia Eagles	1582.42	30

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2013-11-10	93.69	St. Louis Rams	38	1407.14	17.13%	@ Indianapolis Colts	8	1609.96	82.44%
2	2013-10-13	71.66	St. Louis Rams	38	1404.68	30.49%	@ Houston Texans	13	1476.77	69.08%
3	2013-11-03	70.48	Philadelphia Eagles	49	1391.24	36.48%	@ Oakland Raiders	20	1416.47	63.08%
4	2013-09-22	64.58	Indianapolis Colts	27	1483.48	29.96%	@ San Francisco 49ers	7	1559.94	69.61%
5	2013-09-08	64.56	Kansas City Chiefs	28	1392.15	38.54%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	2	1402.12	61.02%
6	2013-12-22	62.67	New England Patriots	41	1634.48	47.78%	@ Baltimore Ravens	7	1578.81	51.78%
7	2013-12-22	61.33	Indianapolis Colts	23	1504.58	25.66%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	7	1618.31	73.91%
8	2013-10-13	60.61	Carolina Panthers	35	1487.40	41.15%	@ Minnesota Vikings	10	1478.47	58.42%
9	2014-01-05 *	59.87	San Diego Chargers	27	1568.94	29.76%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	10	1648.56	70.24%
10	2013-12-15	59.09	@ Minnesota Vikings	48	1386.85	32.43%	Philadelphia Eagles	30	1582.42	67.13%
11	2013-12-22	58.87	@ Buffalo Bills	19	1386.46	34.46%	Miami Dolphins	0	1566.20	65.11%
12	2013-11-10	58.86	Philadelphia Eagles	27	1461.72	23.73%	@ Green Bay Packers	13	1593.44	75.84%
13	2013-12-22	58.59	@ Philadelphia Eagles	54	1523.33	56.55%	Chicago Bears	11	1545.57	43.02%
14	2013-12-29	57.15	New York Jets	20	1370.21	23.17%	@ Miami Dolphins	7	1507.33	76.39%
15	2014-02-02 *	56.37	Seattle Seahawks	43	1783.73	53.91%	@ Denver Broncos	8	1756.54	46.09%
16	2013-09-26	52.20	San Francisco 49ers	35	1495.36	48.24%	@ St. Louis Rams	11	1436.52	51.33%
17	2013-10-13	50.76	Pittsburgh Steelers	19	1385.55	31.71%	@ New York Jets	6	1447.76	67.86%
18	2013-09-22	50.06	@ Carolina Panthers	38	1480.46	60.49%	New York Giants	0	1474.43	39.08%
19	2013-10-06	49.10	Philadelphia Eagles	36	1383.52	38.46%	@ New York Giants	21	1394.09	61.11%
20	2013-11-17	48.85	@ Buffalo Bills	37	1368.77	50.51%	New York Jets	14	1433.32	49.06%
21	2013-11-24	48.03	@ Arizona Cardinals	40	1513.17	56.64%	Indianapolis Colts	11	1534.80	42.93%
22	2013-12-12	46.44	San Diego Chargers	27	1508.64	14.98%	@ Denver Broncos	20	1739.12	84.58%
23	2013-10-13	45.57	Detroit Lions	31	1503.21	40.87%	@ Cleveland Browns	17	1496.29	58.70%
24	2013-12-15	45.38	@ St. Louis Rams	27	1493.24	33.62%	New Orleans Saints	16	1679.48	65.94%
25	2013-11-28	45.02	@ Detroit Lions	40	1492.00	60.01%	Green Bay Packers	10	1489.43	39.56%