2014 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New England Patriots

4th Super Bowl

Last Title: 2004

Runner-Up

Seattle Seahawks

3rd SB App.

Last Appearance: 2013

Biggest Overachiever

Green Bay Packers

2.93 wins above expected

12 wins · 9.07 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Tennessee Titans

4.57 wins below expected

2 wins · 6.57 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	12	4	.750	—	468	313	+155	10.86	+1.14
2	Buffalo Bills	9	7	.562	3	343	289	+54	7.48	+1.52
3	Miami Dolphins	8	8	.500	4	388	373	+15	8.39	-0.39
4	New York Jets	4	12	.250	8	283	401	-118	5.09	-1.09

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	11	5	0	.688	—	436	368	+68	9.68	+1.32
2	Cincinnati Bengals Playoffs	10	5	1	.656	0.5	365	344	+21	9.12	+1.38
3	Baltimore Ravens Playoffs	10	6	0	.625	1	409	302	+107	9.55	+0.45
4	Cleveland Browns	7	9	0	.438	4	299	337	-38	6.95	+0.05

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Indianapolis Colts Division	11	5	.688	—	458	369	+89	10.01	+0.99
2	Houston Texans	9	7	.562	2	372	307	+65	7.32	+1.68
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	13	.188	8	249	412	-163	4.09	-1.09
4	Tennessee Titans	2	14	.125	9	254	438	-184	6.57	-4.57

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	12	4	.750	—	482	354	+128	10.61	+1.39
2	Kansas City Chiefs	9	7	.562	3	353	281	+72	8.65	+0.35
3	San Diego Chargers	9	7	.562	3	348	348	0	8.94	+0.06
4	Oakland Raiders	3	13	.188	9	253	452	-199	3.26	-0.26

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	12	4	.750	—	467	352	+115	9.30	+2.70
2	Philadelphia Eagles	10	6	.625	2	474	400	+74	9.85	+0.15
3	New York Giants	6	10	.375	6	380	400	-20	7.22	-1.22
4	Washington Redskins	4	12	.250	8	301	438	-137	4.91	-0.91

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	12	4	.750	—	486	348	+138	9.07	+2.93
2	Detroit Lions Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	321	282	+39	8.97	+2.03
3	Minnesota Vikings	7	9	.438	5	325	343	-18	7.52	-0.52
4	Chicago Bears	5	11	.312	7	319	442	-123	6.87	-1.87

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Carolina Panthers Division	7	8	1	.469	—	339	374	-35	8.17	-0.67
2	New Orleans Saints	7	9	0	.438	0.5	401	424	-23	9.26	-2.26
3	Atlanta Falcons	6	10	0	.375	1.5	381	417	-36	6.35	-0.35
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	14	0	.125	5.5	277	410	-133	5.21	-3.21

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	12	4	.750	—	394	254	+140	11.11	+0.89
2	Arizona Cardinals Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	310	299	+11	9.62	+1.38
3	San Francisco 49ers	8	8	.500	4	306	340	-34	9.56	-1.56
4	St. Louis Rams	6	10	.375	6	324	354	-30	6.44	-0.44

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Baltimore Ravens 30

Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Jan 3

Indianapolis Colts 26

Cincinnati Bengals 10

Jan 4

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 35

Baltimore Ravens 31

Jan 10

Indianapolis Colts 24

Denver Broncos 13

Jan 11

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 45

Indianapolis Colts 7

Jan 18

NFC

Wild Card Round

Carolina Panthers 27

Arizona Cardinals 16

Jan 3

Dallas Cowboys 24

Detroit Lions 20

Jan 4

Divisional Round

Seattle Seahawks 31

Carolina Panthers 17

Jan 10

Green Bay Packers 26

Dallas Cowboys 21

Jan 11

Conference Championship

Seattle Seahawks 28

Green Bay Packers 22

Jan 18

Super Bowl

New England Patriots 28

Seattle Seahawks 24

Feb 1

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1793	12	11.11	+0.89	79.15%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1745	12	10.86	+1.14	83.24%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1683	12	10.61	+1.39	85.92%	4	8	9	11	12	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1663	12	9.07	+2.93	97.26%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1654	12	9.30	+2.70	96.37%	2	6	8	9	11	12	15
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1642	11	9.68	+1.32	84.05%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1586	10	9.55	+0.45	69.75%	3	6	8	10	11	13	16
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1579	11	9.62	+1.38	84.39%	2	6	8	10	11	13	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1576	10.5	9.12	+1.38	77.29%	3	6	8	9	10	12	16
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1576	10	9.85	+0.15	64.01%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1575	9	8.65	+0.35	68.68%	1	6	7	9	10	12	15
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1570	11	10.01	+0.99	79.30%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1569	11	8.97	+2.03	92.19%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1532	9	7.48	+1.52	86.58%	1	4	6	7	9	11	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1532	8	9.56	-1.56	28.16%	2	6	8	10	11	12	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1531	7.5	8.17	-0.67	36.58%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1521	9	8.94	+0.06	62.44%	3	6	8	9	10	12	15
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1511	9	7.32	+1.68	87.85%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1474	8	8.39	-0.39	52.89%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1461	6	7.22	-1.22	36.73%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1461	6	6.44	-0.44	52.05%	0	4	5	6	8	9	13
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1458	7	9.26	-2.26	18.32%	2	6	8	9	11	12	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1451	7	7.52	-0.52	50.15%	0	4	6	7	9	11	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1418	6	6.35	-0.35	54.11%	0	3	5	6	8	9	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1380	4	5.09	-1.09	38.84%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1365	7	6.95	+0.05	62.89%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1342	5	6.87	-1.87	24.18%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1301	3	3.26	-0.26	59.35%	0	1	2	3	4	6	9
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1286	2	5.21	-3.21	6.55%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1273	4	4.91	-0.91	42.35%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1263	3	4.09	-1.09	38.48%	0	2	3	4	5	7	12
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1228	2	6.57	-4.57	1.03%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.7 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-4 (1.9 exp.)	—	4-0 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
Miami Dolphins	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—	—
New York Jets	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.2 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.6 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.4 exp.)	—
Cincinnati Bengals	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	3-0-1 (2.4 exp.)	—
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	—	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-3 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.1 exp.)	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	—
Tennessee Titans	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.7 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	0-2 (0.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.3 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-3 (1.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (0.6 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.9 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (1.9 exp.)

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.7 exp.)
New York Giants	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)
New York Giants	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.3 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-4 (0.8 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.2 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	1-2-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	1-3 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.6 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	—	—	1-3 (2.5 exp.)	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	—	—	2-2 (2.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	—	—	2-2 (1.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Green Bay Packers	12	9.07	+2.93
2	Dallas Cowboys	12	9.30	+2.70
3	Detroit Lions	11	8.97	+2.03
4	Houston Texans	9	7.32	+1.68
5	Buffalo Bills	9	7.48	+1.52

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Tennessee Titans	2	6.57	-4.57
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2	5.21	-3.21
3	New Orleans Saints	7	9.26	-2.26
4	Chicago Bears	5	6.87	-1.87
5	San Francisco 49ers	8	9.56	-1.56

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Cowboys	6	Sep 14 – Oct 19	1 in 75
2	New England Patriots	7	Oct 5 – Nov 23	1 in 24
3	Kansas City Chiefs	5	Oct 19 – Nov 16	1 in 19
4	Carolina Panthers	4	Dec 7 – Dec 28	1 in 18
5	Washington Redskins	2	Oct 19 – Oct 27	1 in 16

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Tennessee Titans	10	Oct 19 – Dec 28	1 in 133
2	San Francisco 49ers	4	Nov 27 – Dec 20	1 in 36
3	Carolina Panthers	6	Oct 19 – Nov 30	1 in 31
4	Philadelphia Eagles	3	Dec 7 – Dec 20	1 in 29
5	New York Giants	7	Oct 12 – Nov 30	1 in 28

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	76.55%	18.11%	4.93%	0.41%
Miami Dolphins	15.47%	46.73%	30.42%	7.38%
Buffalo Bills	7.41%	30.13%	45.02%	17.44%
New York Jets	0.57%	5.03%	19.63%	74.77%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	36.90%	30.26%	22.53%	10.31%
Baltimore Ravens	33.44%	30.01%	25.41%	11.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	25.66%	29.62%	29.43%	15.29%
Cleveland Browns	4.00%	10.11%	22.63%	63.26%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	77.49%	17.00%	4.78%	0.73%
Houston Texans	14.85%	46.36%	30.40%	8.39%
Tennessee Titans	7.21%	31.30%	45.68%	15.81%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.45%	5.34%	19.14%	75.07%

Team	1	2	3	4
Denver Broncos	62.14%	25.92%	11.72%	0.22%
San Diego Chargers	20.81%	38.92%	39.12%	1.15%
Kansas City Chiefs	17.03%	34.95%	46.21%	1.81%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.21%	2.95%	96.82%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	51.67%	33.33%	13.13%	1.87%
Dallas Cowboys	38.91%	41.86%	16.63%	2.60%
New York Giants	8.76%	21.49%	50.99%	18.76%
Washington Redskins	0.66%	3.32%	19.25%	76.77%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	39.58%	31.30%	18.84%	10.28%
Detroit Lions	39.06%	30.43%	19.95%	10.56%
Minnesota Vikings	13.42%	21.83%	33.02%	31.73%
Chicago Bears	7.94%	16.44%	28.19%	47.43%

Team	1	2	3	4
New Orleans Saints	58.24%	27.56%	11.14%	3.06%
Carolina Panthers	29.51%	40.66%	21.21%	8.62%
Atlanta Falcons	8.92%	21.58%	40.52%	28.98%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	3.33%	10.20%	27.13%	59.34%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	56.79%	27.73%	13.31%	2.17%
Arizona Cardinals	22.56%	33.66%	33.75%	10.03%
San Francisco 49ers	19.76%	33.67%	36.26%	10.31%
St. Louis Rams	0.89%	4.94%	16.68%	77.49%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	25.59%	18.98%	15.29%	11.44%	8.29%	5.79%	4.95%	3.16%	2.63%	1.60%	1.15%	0.77%	0.23%	0.10%	0.02%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	22.12%	17.38%	13.95%	11.08%	9.40%	7.43%	5.65%	3.85%	3.40%	2.52%	1.55%	0.95%	0.40%	0.22%	0.09%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	13.39%	13.88%	14.80%	13.30%	10.78%	8.33%	6.94%	5.85%	4.20%	2.77%	2.42%	1.69%	0.92%	0.45%	0.23%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.55%	11.59%	11.18%	10.43%	10.18%	9.25%	8.07%	7.51%	6.41%	5.00%	4.08%	3.10%	2.31%	1.02%	0.26%	0.06%
Baltimore Ravens	8.79%	10.26%	10.26%	10.61%	9.53%	9.91%	8.31%	7.48%	7.29%	5.99%	4.23%	3.33%	2.52%	1.09%	0.35%	0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.50%	7.52%	8.13%	9.18%	9.50%	9.30%	9.12%	9.05%	8.03%	7.28%	5.76%	4.73%	3.72%	1.60%	0.47%	0.11%
San Diego Chargers	4.86%	6.22%	7.05%	8.67%	9.85%	9.94%	9.79%	9.72%	8.51%	9.27%	6.80%	4.91%	2.69%	1.12%	0.44%	0.16%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.72%	4.84%	6.13%	7.19%	8.87%	9.49%	9.20%	9.50%	10.55%	9.72%	8.67%	6.30%	3.29%	1.61%	0.70%	0.22%
Miami Dolphins	2.87%	4.10%	5.54%	6.42%	7.94%	9.77%	10.34%	10.07%	9.44%	8.72%	8.48%	6.82%	4.62%	2.97%	1.36%	0.54%
Buffalo Bills	1.05%	1.72%	2.31%	3.65%	4.75%	6.35%	8.50%	8.20%	9.22%	11.05%	11.62%	10.87%	8.88%	7.17%	3.26%	1.40%
Houston Texans	0.80%	1.79%	2.72%	3.60%	4.61%	6.05%	7.81%	9.74%	9.85%	10.30%	10.74%	10.84%	9.91%	5.93%	3.47%	1.84%
Cleveland Browns	0.46%	1.12%	1.35%	2.12%	3.18%	3.92%	4.78%	6.13%	8.08%	9.25%	11.17%	14.05%	15.56%	10.75%	5.63%	2.45%
Tennessee Titans	0.25%	0.55%	1.14%	1.94%	2.66%	3.51%	4.78%	6.90%	7.99%	9.45%	12.31%	14.06%	14.37%	9.67%	7.31%	3.11%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.03%	0.13%	0.34%	0.32%	0.74%	1.23%	1.87%	2.73%	4.40%	6.43%	9.75%	14.55%	25.39%	19.60%	12.44%
Jacksonville Jaguars	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.11%	0.19%	0.44%	0.80%	1.33%	2.07%	3.52%	5.79%	10.83%	17.68%	29.89%	27.28%
Oakland Raiders	—	—	—	—	0.03%	0.03%	0.09%	0.17%	0.34%	0.61%	1.07%	2.04%	5.20%	13.23%	26.92%	50.27%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Seattle Seahawks	34.44%	17.56%	12.06%	9.80%	7.35%	5.26%	3.90%	3.26%	2.38%	1.66%	1.07%	0.63%	0.35%	0.16%	0.10%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	12.73%	14.47%	12.21%	10.74%	9.32%	9.01%	7.23%	6.90%	5.05%	3.79%	3.13%	2.46%	1.25%	1.07%	0.49%	0.15%
Arizona Cardinals	11.81%	10.03%	9.46%	9.88%	9.39%	8.44%	8.44%	7.63%	7.05%	5.70%	4.36%	3.06%	2.30%	1.37%	0.82%	0.26%
San Francisco 49ers	10.10%	9.16%	9.44%	10.32%	10.08%	8.87%	8.82%	8.07%	6.96%	5.73%	4.40%	3.43%	2.50%	1.32%	0.59%	0.21%
New Orleans Saints	7.68%	9.95%	11.19%	10.82%	10.21%	9.12%	8.10%	7.62%	6.23%	5.27%	4.31%	3.49%	2.65%	1.78%	0.99%	0.59%
Dallas Cowboys	7.41%	10.36%	10.73%	9.50%	10.04%	9.90%	8.70%	7.83%	6.64%	5.53%	4.78%	3.69%	2.33%	1.33%	0.88%	0.35%
Green Bay Packers	5.76%	9.32%	9.52%	9.37%	9.19%	9.07%	9.24%	8.01%	7.25%	6.44%	5.23%	4.11%	3.21%	2.53%	1.35%	0.40%
Detroit Lions	4.49%	8.44%	9.45%	9.86%	9.29%	9.43%	8.75%	7.86%	7.38%	6.86%	5.76%	4.32%	3.58%	2.64%	1.34%	0.55%
Carolina Panthers	2.50%	4.42%	5.95%	6.41%	7.53%	8.26%	8.83%	9.59%	8.78%	8.35%	7.44%	6.94%	5.56%	4.15%	3.09%	2.20%
Minnesota Vikings	1.15%	2.21%	3.17%	4.26%	4.66%	6.25%	6.89%	7.14%	8.56%	9.78%	9.40%	8.94%	9.08%	8.30%	6.32%	3.89%
New York Giants	0.98%	1.79%	2.53%	3.01%	4.14%	5.04%	6.21%	6.67%	8.37%	9.47%	11.28%	10.79%	9.69%	7.81%	6.79%	5.43%
Chicago Bears	0.39%	1.05%	1.87%	2.48%	3.39%	4.18%	5.25%	5.85%	7.05%	8.68%	9.15%	10.60%	11.07%	12.15%	10.29%	6.55%
Atlanta Falcons	0.29%	0.69%	1.26%	1.83%	2.05%	3.24%	3.89%	5.54%	6.81%	8.37%	9.36%	10.78%	11.83%	11.26%	11.72%	11.08%
St. Louis Rams	0.22%	0.35%	0.72%	0.91%	2.14%	2.26%	3.16%	4.44%	6.00%	6.99%	9.02%	12.11%	14.70%	15.39%	12.61%	8.98%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.04%	0.16%	0.33%	0.61%	0.88%	1.16%	1.72%	2.29%	3.33%	4.41%	6.18%	8.01%	10.09%	13.73%	18.24%	28.82%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.04%	0.11%	0.20%	0.34%	0.51%	0.87%	1.30%	2.16%	2.97%	5.13%	6.64%	9.81%	15.01%	24.38%	30.52%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
Seattle Seahawks	19.08%	13.60%	10.22%	8.35%	7.04%	6.12%	5.71%	4.29%	3.97%	3.23%	2.80%	2.35%	2.33%	1.75%	1.85%	1.42%	1.16%	1.03%	0.89%	0.69%	0.74%	0.34%	0.26%	0.30%	0.15%	0.13%	0.10%	0.01%	0.07%	0.02%	—	—
New England Patriots	14.62%	11.94%	9.73%	8.98%	7.79%	7.34%	5.82%	5.06%	4.20%	4.00%	3.00%	2.90%	2.50%	2.39%	1.84%	1.35%	1.22%	1.36%	0.99%	0.67%	0.69%	0.56%	0.22%	0.38%	0.18%	0.16%	0.03%	0.03%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	—
Denver Broncos	12.49%	10.52%	9.45%	7.84%	7.25%	6.04%	5.85%	5.51%	4.93%	4.11%	4.10%	3.56%	2.98%	2.41%	2.26%	1.76%	1.71%	1.45%	1.19%	1.26%	0.83%	0.76%	0.58%	0.35%	0.27%	0.15%	0.17%	0.12%	0.03%	0.05%	0.01%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	7.04%	7.13%	7.06%	6.73%	7.12%	6.77%	5.85%	7.05%	5.27%	5.05%	4.14%	4.43%	3.44%	3.55%	2.91%	2.92%	2.00%	2.24%	1.56%	1.64%	1.19%	1.31%	0.83%	0.84%	0.52%	0.62%	0.22%	0.22%	0.17%	0.14%	0.03%	0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles	6.05%	6.41%	6.97%	6.62%	6.12%	6.35%	5.52%	5.43%	4.75%	4.87%	4.52%	4.68%	3.87%	3.61%	3.39%	3.21%	2.74%	2.63%	2.20%	1.72%	1.82%	1.53%	1.10%	1.27%	0.78%	0.52%	0.53%	0.35%	0.30%	0.08%	0.06%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	4.61%	5.48%	5.94%	5.97%	5.51%	5.80%	5.31%	5.12%	4.95%	5.24%	4.52%	4.40%	4.15%	4.26%	3.26%	3.73%	3.25%	2.86%	2.72%	2.36%	2.02%	1.86%	1.59%	1.32%	1.22%	1.09%	0.63%	0.40%	0.20%	0.16%	0.03%	0.04%
Arizona Cardinals	5.52%	5.67%	5.44%	5.15%	5.32%	4.66%	5.34%	4.46%	5.05%	4.66%	4.38%	4.00%	4.50%	4.36%	4.09%	3.35%	3.64%	3.45%	3.19%	2.48%	2.27%	1.89%	1.57%	1.49%	1.25%	0.91%	0.78%	0.49%	0.35%	0.15%	0.10%	0.04%
Baltimore Ravens	4.42%	4.90%	4.96%	5.72%	5.08%	5.27%	4.93%	5.36%	5.28%	4.81%	4.96%	4.49%	4.00%	4.35%	3.75%	3.78%	3.28%	3.09%	3.34%	2.78%	2.00%	2.07%	1.65%	1.59%	1.36%	0.99%	0.63%	0.58%	0.29%	0.18%	0.10%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	4.64%	4.96%	4.71%	5.04%	5.38%	4.63%	5.71%	4.54%	5.32%	4.96%	4.70%	4.28%	5.11%	4.10%	4.29%	3.74%	3.58%	2.98%	3.12%	2.48%	2.59%	2.14%	1.88%	1.39%	1.16%	0.86%	0.73%	0.43%	0.33%	0.13%	0.06%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	3.27%	3.89%	4.83%	4.84%	5.15%	5.19%	5.18%	5.24%	5.06%	4.99%	4.87%	5.05%	4.67%	4.11%	3.63%	4.12%	3.62%	3.46%	3.06%	2.80%	2.33%	2.30%	1.99%	1.77%	1.38%	1.05%	0.81%	0.50%	0.42%	0.20%	0.17%	0.05%
New Orleans Saints	3.55%	4.18%	4.27%	5.47%	4.82%	5.21%	5.63%	5.21%	4.92%	5.16%	5.22%	4.41%	4.21%	3.96%	3.86%	3.94%	3.77%	2.89%	2.93%	2.57%	2.57%	2.10%	1.89%	1.47%	1.55%	1.38%	1.00%	0.67%	0.66%	0.23%	0.22%	0.08%
Green Bay Packers	2.39%	3.40%	4.11%	4.59%	4.69%	4.78%	4.17%	4.89%	4.83%	4.66%	4.55%	4.71%	4.68%	4.28%	4.34%	4.18%	4.25%	3.40%	3.55%	3.29%	2.80%	2.51%	2.47%	2.02%	1.73%	1.42%	1.20%	0.93%	0.68%	0.31%	0.14%	0.05%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.69%	3.91%	4.11%	3.51%	4.33%	4.61%	4.55%	4.42%	4.90%	4.84%	4.39%	4.53%	4.38%	4.61%	4.74%	4.00%	4.07%	4.12%	3.55%	3.43%	2.84%	2.74%	2.54%	2.11%	1.90%	1.65%	0.97%	0.73%	0.34%	0.31%	0.10%	0.08%
Detroit Lions	1.93%	2.76%	3.71%	4.43%	3.71%	4.89%	4.40%	5.45%	4.38%	4.94%	4.91%	4.92%	4.54%	4.21%	4.15%	4.42%	4.07%	3.80%	3.47%	3.13%	3.22%	2.68%	2.65%	2.00%	1.77%	1.60%	1.63%	0.92%	0.68%	0.33%	0.19%	0.11%
San Diego Chargers	2.10%	2.81%	3.18%	3.25%	3.73%	3.89%	4.38%	4.14%	5.16%	4.71%	5.10%	5.05%	4.22%	5.09%	4.97%	4.48%	4.05%	4.69%	3.71%	4.43%	3.38%	3.45%	2.17%	2.49%	1.70%	1.47%	0.74%	0.69%	0.34%	0.16%	0.21%	0.06%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.60%	2.25%	2.44%	2.60%	3.30%	3.14%	3.78%	3.64%	4.61%	4.39%	4.51%	4.64%	4.46%	4.99%	4.39%	4.52%	4.65%	5.43%	4.31%	5.14%	4.03%	4.10%	2.86%	2.87%	2.09%	1.82%	1.19%	1.01%	0.59%	0.35%	0.21%	0.09%
Miami Dolphins	1.24%	1.67%	2.11%	2.16%	3.00%	2.95%	3.33%	3.56%	3.56%	3.95%	4.26%	4.86%	5.01%	4.95%	4.96%	5.12%	4.19%	4.88%	4.16%	4.49%	4.12%	3.80%	3.20%	3.71%	2.34%	2.65%	1.60%	1.81%	0.93%	0.80%	0.40%	0.23%
Carolina Panthers	0.95%	1.28%	2.11%	2.31%	2.63%	2.84%	3.32%	3.25%	3.46%	3.90%	4.13%	4.03%	4.43%	4.50%	5.21%	4.51%	4.80%	4.11%	4.73%	4.01%	4.12%	3.78%	4.12%	3.08%	3.24%	2.51%	2.72%	1.84%	1.70%	1.13%	0.97%	0.28%
Buffalo Bills	0.27%	0.70%	0.72%	1.08%	1.17%	1.40%	1.82%	1.85%	2.32%	2.48%	3.20%	3.34%	3.76%	4.03%	4.11%	4.08%	4.41%	4.86%	4.90%	5.22%	5.04%	5.81%	5.27%	5.28%	4.35%	4.79%	3.63%	3.88%	2.14%	2.18%	1.11%	0.80%
Minnesota Vikings	0.37%	0.72%	1.03%	1.10%	1.37%	1.77%	1.68%	2.26%	2.18%	2.72%	2.87%	3.25%	3.70%	3.44%	3.72%	3.87%	4.34%	4.82%	4.92%	4.85%	5.15%	4.52%	5.14%	4.60%	5.04%	4.59%	4.56%	3.57%	3.44%	2.00%	1.62%	0.79%
Houston Texans	0.29%	0.47%	0.65%	1.20%	1.24%	1.35%	1.44%	2.00%	2.28%	2.47%	2.80%	3.05%	3.22%	4.17%	3.77%	5.30%	4.20%	5.26%	4.24%	5.66%	4.55%	5.81%	4.72%	5.90%	4.60%	5.05%	3.71%	3.58%	2.47%	2.09%	1.33%	1.13%
New York Giants	0.35%	0.43%	0.69%	0.90%	1.24%	1.33%	1.56%	1.61%	1.75%	2.29%	2.57%	2.43%	3.20%	3.35%	3.25%	3.82%	4.48%	4.16%	4.75%	4.71%	5.68%	5.45%	5.56%	5.60%	5.00%	5.13%	4.57%	4.10%	3.69%	2.90%	2.41%	1.04%
Cleveland Browns	0.15%	0.23%	0.45%	0.66%	0.67%	0.81%	1.15%	1.13%	1.59%	1.49%	2.05%	2.02%	2.37%	2.72%	3.12%	3.22%	3.55%	4.22%	4.64%	5.11%	4.74%	5.67%	5.94%	6.91%	6.48%	7.50%	5.22%	5.65%	3.98%	3.13%	1.97%	1.46%
Chicago Bears	0.11%	0.22%	0.36%	0.61%	0.76%	0.98%	1.03%	1.40%	1.47%	1.71%	2.15%	2.35%	2.59%	2.51%	3.26%	3.01%	3.84%	3.70%	4.82%	4.29%	4.93%	5.21%	5.80%	5.26%	5.96%	5.65%	6.60%	5.62%	5.40%	4.02%	3.11%	1.27%
Tennessee Titans	0.08%	0.12%	0.22%	0.32%	0.50%	0.63%	0.98%	0.98%	1.16%	1.34%	1.57%	1.97%	1.86%	2.56%	2.93%	3.59%	3.71%	3.98%	4.16%	4.93%	5.46%	5.87%	5.56%	7.46%	6.44%	7.22%	5.68%	5.28%	4.13%	4.48%	2.94%	1.89%
Atlanta Falcons	0.12%	0.14%	0.29%	0.33%	0.50%	0.55%	0.73%	0.97%	1.08%	1.00%	1.40%	1.54%	1.98%	1.82%	3.04%	2.86%	3.60%	3.26%	4.15%	4.19%	5.18%	5.04%	5.81%	5.49%	6.83%	5.60%	6.65%	6.02%	6.50%	5.72%	5.17%	2.44%
St. Louis Rams	0.05%	0.13%	0.17%	0.13%	0.33%	0.35%	0.46%	0.64%	0.88%	1.14%	1.14%	1.33%	1.78%	1.76%	2.16%	2.36%	3.38%	2.85%	4.11%	3.72%	4.91%	5.52%	7.05%	5.64%	8.13%	7.21%	8.06%	6.64%	7.16%	4.65%	4.31%	1.85%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%	0.07%	0.18%	0.20%	0.17%	0.24%	0.38%	0.42%	0.58%	0.64%	0.89%	0.76%	1.12%	1.16%	1.43%	1.58%	2.40%	2.48%	3.26%	3.36%	4.24%	4.16%	6.18%	5.64%	7.78%	8.11%	10.93%	9.96%	13.62%	7.99%
New York Jets	0.01%	0.04%	0.02%	0.02%	0.06%	0.10%	0.08%	0.16%	0.19%	0.18%	0.35%	0.40%	0.58%	0.69%	0.80%	0.98%	1.25%	1.30%	1.82%	2.33%	3.13%	3.09%	4.13%	5.36%	5.33%	7.26%	8.70%	11.76%	9.94%	12.30%	9.10%	8.54%
Washington Redskins	—	0.01%	0.01%	0.02%	—	0.03%	0.10%	0.13%	0.12%	0.21%	0.20%	0.26%	0.43%	0.39%	0.58%	0.71%	1.11%	1.30%	1.39%	1.71%	2.72%	2.69%	4.16%	3.82%	5.60%	5.77%	8.93%	8.76%	13.71%	11.40%	14.28%	9.45%
Jacksonville Jaguars	—	0.01%	—	—	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.01%	—	0.07%	0.03%	0.11%	0.13%	0.26%	0.22%	0.41%	0.53%	0.64%	0.78%	1.08%	1.30%	1.58%	2.26%	3.09%	3.87%	4.95%	6.30%	9.22%	10.29%	15.92%	16.09%	20.80%
Oakland Raiders	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.03%	0.06%	0.03%	0.08%	0.12%	0.20%	0.25%	0.35%	0.39%	0.46%	0.79%	0.98%	1.60%	2.66%	3.93%	6.08%	8.12%	14.50%	19.93%	39.38%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	25.59%	19.78%	17.92%	13.26%	5.12%	4.65%	13.68%
Denver Broncos	22.12%	17.17%	14.48%	8.37%	10.57%	7.98%	19.31%
Indianapolis Colts	13.39%	14.83%	18.36%	30.91%	2.12%	2.32%	18.07%
Pittsburgh Steelers	9.55%	11.46%	9.75%	6.14%	12.80%	10.76%	39.54%
Baltimore Ravens	8.79%	10.12%	8.73%	5.80%	12.67%	11.15%	42.74%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.50%	7.13%	7.23%	4.80%	11.96%	10.92%	51.46%
San Diego Chargers	4.86%	5.66%	5.84%	4.45%	12.10%	12.10%	54.99%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.72%	4.59%	5.03%	3.69%	10.48%	10.83%	61.66%
Miami Dolphins	2.87%	3.91%	4.40%	4.29%	9.56%	10.65%	64.32%
Buffalo Bills	1.05%	1.63%	2.11%	2.62%	5.18%	6.47%	80.94%
Houston Texans	0.80%	1.90%	3.35%	8.80%	2.69%	4.33%	78.13%
Cleveland Browns	0.46%	1.17%	1.16%	1.21%	2.86%	4.34%	88.80%
Tennessee Titans	0.25%	0.61%	1.44%	4.91%	1.46%	2.69%	88.64%
New York Jets	0.05%	0.02%	0.16%	0.34%	0.37%	0.64%	98.42%
Jacksonville Jaguars	—	0.02%	0.04%	0.39%	0.04%	0.15%	99.36%
Oakland Raiders	—	—	—	0.02%	0.02%	0.02%	99.94%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Seattle Seahawks	34.44%	13.93%	6.33%	2.09%	19.34%	8.35%	15.52%
Philadelphia Eagles	12.73%	16.08%	13.89%	8.97%	7.49%	9.12%	31.72%
Arizona Cardinals	11.81%	6.59%	2.98%	1.18%	20.51%	12.61%	44.32%
San Francisco 49ers	10.10%	5.52%	3.13%	1.01%	20.81%	14.04%	45.39%
New Orleans Saints	7.68%	11.69%	16.05%	22.82%	2.34%	4.51%	34.91%
Dallas Cowboys	7.41%	11.61%	11.62%	8.27%	8.21%	10.33%	42.55%
Green Bay Packers	5.76%	11.40%	11.98%	10.44%	4.41%	8.08%	47.93%
Detroit Lions	4.49%	9.92%	12.78%	11.87%	4.14%	7.89%	48.91%
Carolina Panthers	2.50%	5.57%	7.99%	13.45%	2.91%	5.67%	61.91%
Minnesota Vikings	1.15%	2.69%	4.38%	5.20%	2.39%	5.20%	78.99%
New York Giants	0.98%	2.16%	2.82%	2.80%	2.88%	5.10%	83.26%
Chicago Bears	0.39%	1.41%	2.91%	3.23%	1.48%	3.55%	87.03%
Atlanta Falcons	0.29%	0.85%	2.03%	5.75%	0.66%	1.86%	88.56%
St. Louis Rams	0.22%	0.31%	0.23%	0.13%	2.06%	2.56%	94.49%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.04%	0.21%	0.70%	2.38%	0.23%	0.70%	95.74%
Washington Redskins	0.01%	0.06%	0.18%	0.41%	0.14%	0.43%	98.77%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Seattle Seahawks	76.46%	76.46%	60.16%	44.78%	27.88%
New England Patriots	76.45%	76.45%	53.21%	35.54%	20.38%
Denver Broncos	66.46%	66.46%	40.17%	21.89%	11.14%
Green Bay Packers	39.83%	39.83%	22.35%	10.95%	5.37%
Dallas Cowboys	43.06%	43.06%	24.42%	11.11%	5.33%
Pittsburgh Steelers	43.92%	43.92%	22.97%	10.66%	5.08%
Indianapolis Colts	58.41%	58.41%	23.96%	9.50%	3.76%
Philadelphia Eagles	50.05%	50.05%	23.52%	8.90%	3.40%
Baltimore Ravens	38.35%	37.83%	17.28%	7.08%	2.96%
Arizona Cardinals	37.28%	36.46%	15.79%	6.84%	2.79%
Detroit Lions	36.68%	33.56%	14.67%	5.59%	2.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	34.91%	30.17%	12.39%	4.48%	1.69%
San Francisco 49ers	38.99%	31.54%	12.02%	4.66%	1.66%
Kansas City Chiefs	30.03%	21.78%	9.26%	3.70%	1.58%
San Diego Chargers	34.49%	23.47%	8.10%	3.01%	1.16%
Carolina Panthers	30.02%	22.07%	8.45%	2.56%	0.92%
New Orleans Saints	45.72%	37.02%	10.59%	2.65%	0.77%
Miami Dolphins	28.90%	15.58%	4.98%	1.54%	0.54%
Buffalo Bills	16.38%	8.91%	3.25%	1.16%	0.43%
Houston Texans	19.17%	10.65%	3.27%	1.23%	0.37%
Minnesota Vikings	17.17%	9.71%	2.95%	0.74%	0.32%
New York Giants	13.60%	7.98%	2.45%	0.54%	0.12%
Cleveland Browns	9.57%	3.61%	0.77%	0.17%	0.06%
St. Louis Rams	4.98%	2.18%	0.60%	0.30%	0.06%
Atlanta Falcons	10.30%	4.41%	1.11%	0.27%	0.05%
Chicago Bears	11.17%	4.49%	0.76%	0.09%	0.03%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	4.01%	0.94%	0.12%	0.02%	0.01%
New York Jets	1.51%	0.45%	0.07%	0.01%	—
Oakland Raiders	0.06%	0.01%	—	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.62%	0.13%	0.02%	—	—
Tennessee Titans	10.50%	2.17%	0.30%	0.03%	—
Washington Redskins	1.16%	0.24%	0.04%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.68%	1.89%	0.66%	1.42%	1.55%	3.28%	0.05%	1.37%	1.84%	0.88%	0.12%	0.01%	1.98%	2.11%	1.08%
Buffalo Bills	0.72%		0.56%	0.21%	0.74%	0.33%	1.15%	0.02%	0.40%	0.23%	0.48%	0.03%		0.54%	0.54%	0.28%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.63%	0.81%		0.50%	1.39%	1.17%	2.66%	0.09%	1.25%	1.68%	1.08%	0.05%		1.41%	1.79%	1.03%
Cleveland Browns	0.22%	0.08%	0.16%		0.18%	0.12%	0.42%	0.01%	0.18%	0.14%	0.05%	0.01%		0.10%	0.14%	0.17%
Denver Broncos	2.79%	1.77%	2.28%	1.06%		1.37%	2.95%	0.07%	2.83%	3.05%	1.85%	0.18%		2.08%	3.77%	1.12%
Houston Texans	0.84%	0.26%	1.09%	0.31%	0.62%		0.91%	0.01%	0.65%	0.79%	0.33%	0.07%		0.77%	1.09%	0.21%
Indianapolis Colts	3.61%	1.76%	3.73%	1.60%	2.02%	1.38%		0.02%	3.03%	3.69%	1.12%	0.22%	0.01%	3.09%	3.81%	1.10%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%		0.01%	0.01%			0.02%			0.02%				0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.33%	0.62%	1.22%	0.45%	1.22%	0.86%	2.32%	0.01%		1.31%	1.20%	0.11%		1.26%	0.95%	0.61%
Miami Dolphins	0.87%	0.25%	0.56%	0.33%	0.78%	0.74%	1.41%	0.04%	0.74%		0.57%	0.01%	0.01%	0.80%	1.03%	0.66%
New England Patriots	3.52%	1.89%	3.20%	1.09%	2.46%	1.45%	2.25%	0.05%	3.52%	3.58%		0.08%	0.01%	3.17%	3.89%	0.92%
New York Jets	0.06%		0.04%	0.04%	0.01%	0.04%	0.06%		0.05%	0.03%	0.01%			0.01%	0.01%	0.02%
Oakland Raiders			0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.48%	1.05%	2.30%	0.75%	2.03%	1.58%	3.63%	0.11%	1.77%	2.21%	1.43%	0.10%			2.29%	1.18%
San Diego Chargers	1.21%	0.86%	1.17%	0.53%	1.28%	0.58%	2.33%	0.03%	0.62%	1.41%	0.83%	0.13%	0.01%	1.15%		0.81%
Tennessee Titans	0.13%	0.12%	0.15%	0.05%	0.08%	0.05%	0.13%		0.15%	0.12%	0.04%	0.02%		0.15%	0.12%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		1.01%	1.99%	0.86%	1.30%	2.02%	1.24%	1.12%	4.34%	0.60%	1.73%	0.60%	0.60%	0.08%	0.51%	0.06%
Atlanta Falcons	0.50%		0.16%	0.19%	0.29%	0.14%	0.08%	0.23%	0.33%	0.18%	0.40%	0.52%	0.18%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%
Carolina Panthers	1.96%	0.29%		0.51%	1.13%	1.19%	0.73%	0.73%	1.88%	0.52%	1.08%	2.67%	0.88%	0.28%	0.10%	0.05%
Chicago Bears	0.28%	0.02%	0.18%		0.15%	0.28%	0.18%	0.18%	0.42%	0.12%	0.26%	0.38%	0.08%	0.09%	0.04%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	2.66%	0.77%	1.67%	1.00%		2.37%	1.62%	1.42%	3.35%	0.92%	3.31%	2.90%	1.27%	0.39%	0.24%	0.15%
Detroit Lions	2.30%	0.49%	1.30%	0.81%	1.54%		1.78%	1.08%	2.19%	0.95%	1.80%	3.02%	0.99%	0.49%	0.30%	0.11%
Green Bay Packers	2.80%	0.67%	1.64%	0.86%	2.09%	2.75%		1.07%	2.21%	0.95%	2.34%	3.21%	1.31%	0.36%	0.27%	0.14%
Minnesota Vikings	0.70%	0.19%	0.39%	0.16%	0.42%	0.52%	0.35%		0.82%	0.41%	0.57%	0.82%	0.29%	0.13%	0.09%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints	2.41%	0.47%	1.45%	0.75%	1.39%	1.20%	0.85%	1.00%		0.87%	1.69%	3.84%	0.91%	0.52%	0.22%	0.08%
New York Giants	0.59%	0.23%	0.34%	0.29%	0.35%	0.39%	0.34%	0.25%	0.79%		0.45%	0.52%	0.16%	0.06%	0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.68%	0.65%	1.66%	1.13%	2.07%	2.17%	1.41%	1.45%	2.54%	0.98%		2.75%	0.92%	0.44%	0.29%	0.10%
San Francisco 49ers	0.49%	1.02%	1.78%	0.76%	0.99%	1.75%	1.14%	0.97%	3.63%	0.68%	1.59%		0.36%	0.12%	0.53%	0.11%
Seattle Seahawks	1.68%	1.10%	3.29%	1.04%	2.52%	2.57%	2.29%	1.63%	5.05%	1.43%	2.80%	1.66%		0.32%	0.58%	0.13%
St. Louis Rams	0.06%	0.11%	0.13%	0.07%	0.08%	0.13%	0.19%	0.09%	0.43%	0.10%	0.14%	0.04%	0.04%		0.04%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.09%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	0.04%	0.09%	0.05%	0.07%	0.12%	0.03%			0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.02%		0.01%	0.04%		0.01%	0.01%	0.04%				0.02%		0.01%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.58%	1.17%	0.20%	2.86%	0.71%	3.48%	0.03%	1.20%	0.96%	2.80%	0.06%		1.61%	1.48%	0.14%
Buffalo Bills	0.31%		0.28%	0.03%	0.43%	0.08%	0.73%		0.22%	0.12%	0.45%	0.02%		0.33%	0.22%	0.03%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.99%	0.44%		0.09%	2.13%	0.46%	2.43%	0.01%	0.81%	0.74%	1.95%	0.01%		1.23%	0.92%	0.18%
Cleveland Browns	0.11%		0.03%		0.07%	0.02%	0.14%		0.04%	0.11%	0.14%			0.05%	0.04%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	4.66%	1.16%	4.30%	0.66%		1.78%	7.60%	0.01%	2.59%	2.25%	6.59%	0.04%		4.78%	3.27%	0.48%
Houston Texans	0.38%	0.08%	0.32%	0.04%	0.62%		0.28%		0.19%	0.23%	0.49%			0.39%	0.24%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	3.02%	0.82%	2.71%	0.45%	3.97%	0.49%		0.01%	1.71%	1.38%	3.90%	0.06%		3.13%	2.23%	0.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%								0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.05%	0.29%	0.80%	0.13%	1.31%	0.33%	1.78%			0.57%	1.30%	0.01%		1.17%	0.47%	0.05%
Miami Dolphins	0.51%	0.07%	0.48%	0.12%	0.73%	0.25%	0.91%		0.28%		0.65%			0.55%	0.35%	0.08%
New England Patriots	6.44%	1.41%	5.18%	0.80%	8.96%	2.20%	10.32%	0.03%	3.61%	2.68%		0.11%	0.01%	6.77%	4.20%	0.49%
New York Jets	0.02%		0.02%		0.02%		0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.18%	0.54%	1.82%	0.18%	4.01%	0.81%	5.04%	0.02%	1.44%	1.12%	3.71%	0.05%			1.91%	0.14%
San Diego Chargers	0.83%	0.26%	0.65%	0.13%	1.17%	0.24%	1.69%		0.40%	0.44%	1.21%	0.02%		0.89%		0.17%
Tennessee Titans	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.04%		0.02%		0.05%			0.05%	0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.23%	0.89%	0.22%	1.36%	1.39%	1.18%	0.48%	2.02%	0.56%	2.27%	2.27%	2.69%	0.14%	0.08%	0.01%
Atlanta Falcons	0.12%		0.01%	0.06%	0.11%	0.16%	0.07%	0.04%	0.06%	0.04%	0.22%	0.12%	0.06%	0.04%
Carolina Panthers	0.81%	0.03%		0.31%	0.95%	0.99%	0.82%	0.38%	0.56%	0.37%	1.55%	0.66%	0.95%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%
Chicago Bears	0.12%		0.05%		0.05%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.16%	0.05%	0.19%	0.02%	0.07%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	2.12%	0.43%	2.10%	0.44%		3.09%	2.98%	1.27%	3.95%	0.34%	3.10%	1.86%	2.54%	0.08%	0.11%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	1.35%	0.28%	1.17%	0.07%	1.82%		0.74%	0.20%	2.65%	0.37%	2.86%	1.19%	1.72%	0.12%	0.10%	0.03%
Green Bay Packers	1.94%	0.40%	1.77%	0.16%	2.81%	1.42%		0.42%	3.61%	0.85%	4.01%	1.96%	2.70%	0.19%	0.09%	0.02%
Minnesota Vikings	0.27%	0.08%	0.19%	0.05%	0.31%	0.07%	0.05%		0.58%	0.11%	0.61%	0.26%	0.35%	0.01%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.95%	0.04%	0.32%	0.36%	1.41%	1.36%	1.19%	0.50%		0.46%	2.00%	0.83%	1.04%	0.07%	0.02%	0.04%
New York Giants	0.17%	0.05%	0.23%	0.07%	0.20%	0.28%	0.21%	0.12%	0.48%		0.23%	0.22%	0.17%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.20%	0.57%	1.85%	0.73%	2.12%	3.36%	2.80%	1.00%	4.01%	0.40%		1.89%	2.20%	0.22%	0.16%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	1.57%	0.19%	0.80%	0.27%	1.07%	1.12%	1.12%	0.43%	1.53%	0.23%	1.75%		1.74%	0.12%	0.07%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	8.97%	0.97%	4.22%	0.97%	6.34%	5.58%	6.18%	1.89%	6.72%	1.73%	7.64%	8.21%		0.53%	0.16%	0.05%
St. Louis Rams	0.05%	0.03%	0.01%	0.02%	0.05%	0.05%	0.11%	0.01%	0.08%	0.02%	0.08%	0.03%	0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.02%				0.04%	0.01%			0.02%		0.02%		0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.01%		0.01%				0.01%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.17%	0.30%	0.01%	1.58%	0.15%	1.12%		0.47%	0.34%	1.98%	0.01%	0.51%	0.41%	0.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.11%		0.19%	0.01%	0.29%	0.02%	0.12%		0.05%	0.01%	0.18%		0.13%	0.03%	0.02%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.22%	0.15%		0.01%	1.19%	0.08%	0.62%		0.18%	0.17%	1.13%		0.42%	0.30%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%		0.01%		0.03%		0.01%		0.02%	0.01%	0.05%			0.03%
Denver Broncos	2.78%	0.63%	2.04%	0.16%		0.42%	3.55%	0.01%	0.84%	0.90%	6.62%	0.02%	3.20%	0.67%	0.05%
Houston Texans	0.10%		0.06%		0.26%		0.15%		0.10%	0.06%	0.29%		0.13%	0.08%
Indianapolis Colts	0.91%	0.22%	0.74%	0.05%	2.25%	0.10%			0.60%	0.33%	2.38%	0.02%	1.34%	0.55%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.37%	0.10%	0.36%	0.06%	0.49%	0.12%	0.56%			0.20%	0.93%		0.44%	0.07%
Miami Dolphins	0.14%	0.03%	0.15%	0.01%	0.29%	0.03%	0.29%		0.10%		0.20%		0.24%	0.05%	0.01%
New England Patriots	4.41%	0.39%	3.22%	0.22%	8.99%	0.87%	6.03%	0.01%	2.56%	1.02%		0.01%	5.55%	2.17%	0.09%
New York Jets										0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.80%	0.35%	0.55%	0.04%	2.56%	0.18%	1.52%		0.50%	0.23%	3.16%			0.73%	0.04%
San Diego Chargers	0.35%	0.05%	0.28%	0.03%	0.34%	0.07%	0.49%		0.14%	0.16%	0.74%		0.35%		0.01%
Tennessee Titans			0.01%		0.01%						0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.05%	0.38%	0.01%	1.17%	0.71%	1.03%	0.22%	0.61%	0.11%	1.03%	0.34%	1.18%
Atlanta Falcons	0.03%		0.02%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%		0.03%	0.03%	0.04%
Carolina Panthers	0.24%	0.01%		0.01%	0.27%	0.19%	0.26%	0.09%	0.05%	0.06%	0.41%	0.21%	0.73%	0.03%
Chicago Bears		0.01%			0.01%		0.01%		0.03%		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	1.29%	0.11%	0.62%	0.02%		0.87%	1.23%	0.26%	0.94%	0.09%	0.90%	1.28%	3.45%	0.04%	0.01%
Detroit Lions	0.72%	0.02%	0.23%	0.03%	0.66%		0.31%	0.03%	0.33%	0.10%	0.81%	0.62%	1.70%	0.02%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	1.43%	0.14%	0.70%	0.06%	1.14%	0.40%		0.11%	0.74%	0.24%	1.55%	0.93%	3.43%	0.06%	0.02%
Minnesota Vikings	0.08%	0.02%	0.04%		0.04%	0.04%	0.10%		0.06%		0.09%	0.12%	0.14%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints	0.25%	0.01%	0.03%	0.02%	0.33%	0.17%	0.34%	0.06%		0.06%	0.36%	0.23%	0.77%	0.02%
New York Giants	0.06%		0.03%		0.03%	0.02%	0.05%	0.02%	0.05%		0.04%	0.09%	0.15%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.06%	0.09%	0.60%	0.06%	0.78%	0.99%	0.78%	0.10%	0.55%	0.08%		0.82%	2.97%	0.01%		0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.29%	0.04%	0.27%	0.04%	0.58%	0.56%	0.52%	0.14%	0.49%	0.15%	0.82%		0.74%		0.01%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	3.47%	0.34%	2.96%	0.41%	8.23%	5.06%	6.72%	1.17%	4.04%	1.02%	8.53%	2.66%		0.10%	0.05%	0.02%
St. Louis Rams	0.03%		0.01%		0.04%	0.03%	0.03%		0.04%		0.04%	0.01%	0.07%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers												0.01%	0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans
Arizona Cardinals			0.26%	0.02%			0.12%			0.60%			0.09%	0.30%	0.09%	0.05%		0.80%					0.30%	0.16%
Atlanta Falcons							0.03%			0.01%			0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	0.27%				0.12%	0.01%			0.27%		0.27%	0.35%					0.01%		0.10%	0.02%		0.33%			0.19%	1.01%	0.01%
Buffalo Bills	0.04%				0.01%				0.05%		0.02%	0.06%					0.01%					0.01%				0.23%
Carolina Panthers			0.09%	0.02%			0.06%			0.23%			0.02%	0.05%	0.05%	0.02%		0.24%					0.10%	0.04%
Chicago Bears										0.02%				0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.14%	0.01%			0.07%				0.17%		0.16%	0.19%					0.02%		0.05%	0.02%		0.26%			0.08%	0.52%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%										0.01%											0.04%
Dallas Cowboys			0.47%	0.12%			0.32%	0.02%		0.95%			0.08%	0.58%	0.23%	0.10%		1.77%					0.58%	0.11%
Denver Broncos	0.83%	0.03%			0.47%	0.03%			1.25%		0.84%	1.15%					0.11%		0.39%	0.13%		1.24%			0.79%	3.81%	0.07%
Detroit Lions			0.20%	0.01%			0.19%	0.01%		0.36%			0.07%	0.23%	0.10%	0.06%		0.64%					0.17%	0.09%					0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.37%	0.04%			0.32%	0.01%		1.20%			0.08%	0.52%	0.27%	0.11%		1.67%					0.57%	0.21%
Houston Texans	0.06%				0.01%				0.06%		0.05%	0.03%							0.02%			0.03%			0.03%	0.08%
Indianapolis Colts	0.28%	0.04%			0.10%				0.43%		0.30%	0.55%					0.07%		0.16%	0.03%		0.39%			0.27%	1.14%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.18%	0.01%			0.07%				0.24%		0.10%	0.15%					0.01%		0.13%			0.12%			0.10%	0.47%
Miami Dolphins	0.05%				0.02%				0.07%		0.01%	0.09%					0.01%		0.04%			0.06%			0.03%	0.15%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			0.06%	0.01%			0.06%			0.07%				0.05%	0.01%			0.06%
New England Patriots	1.70%	0.09%			0.61%	0.01%			2.48%		1.27%	2.28%					0.14%		0.75%	0.17%		2.26%			1.19%	7.32%	0.10%	0.01%
New Orleans Saints			0.03%	0.03%			0.08%			0.14%				0.12%	0.03%	0.02%		0.18%					0.12%	0.02%
New York Giants			0.03%				0.01%			0.03%				0.04%									0.01%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.25%	0.07%			0.14%	0.01%		0.73%			0.09%	0.33%	0.15%	0.08%		0.85%					0.47%	0.21%					0.02%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.40%	0.01%			0.11%	0.01%			0.66%		0.29%	0.60%					0.04%		0.23%	0.05%		0.59%			0.28%	1.76%	0.05%
San Diego Chargers	0.09%	0.03%			0.05%				0.10%		0.13%	0.13%							0.01%			0.17%			0.04%	0.41%
San Francisco 49ers			0.14%	0.01%			0.10%	0.01%		0.33%			0.01%	0.26%	0.05%	0.06%		0.47%					0.19%	0.03%
Seattle Seahawks			2.21%	0.40%			1.35%	0.05%		6.08%			0.40%	3.24%	1.14%	0.49%		8.47%			0.01%		3.06%	0.98%
St. Louis Rams			0.01%				0.01%						0.01%			0.01%		0.01%					0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers														0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Seattle Seahawks	100.00%	80.75%	58.50%	34.97%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
New England Patriots	100.00%	75.10%	50.59%	25.38%	Won Super Bowl
Denver Broncos	100.00%	64.74%	26.33%	11.52%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	100.00%	60.30%	20.60%	9.53%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Dallas Cowboys	69.40%	30.40%	10.98%	5.47%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	65.00%	24.42%	9.81%	4.38%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Indianapolis Colts	57.12%	14.37%	5.06%	1.77%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Arizona Cardinals	48.83%	11.90%	4.19%	1.74%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Cincinnati Bengals	42.88%	12.21%	4.49%	1.61%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Baltimore Ravens	35.00%	9.16%	3.72%	1.42%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Detroit Lions	30.60%	6.49%	2.83%	1.25%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Carolina Panthers	51.17%	10.16%	2.90%	0.96%	Eliminated in Divisional Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Indianapolis Colts	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens				35.00%
Cincinnati Bengals			42.88%
Indianapolis Colts		57.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	65.00%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions
Arizona Cardinals		48.83%
Carolina Panthers	51.17%
Dallas Cowboys				69.40%
Detroit Lions			30.60%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens					9.16%
Cincinnati Bengals			5.19%		7.02%
Denver Broncos		10.32%		13.84%		40.58%
Indianapolis Colts			5.65%		8.72%
New England Patriots	25.84%	20.35%		28.91%
Pittsburgh Steelers			24.42%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals					4.82%	7.08%
Carolina Panthers					4.48%	5.68%
Dallas Cowboys					30.40%
Detroit Lions						6.49%
Green Bay Packers	9.73%	11.57%	39.00%
Seattle Seahawks	27.20%	29.44%		24.11%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Baltimore Ravens		0.61%	2.37%	0.74%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.81%		1.50%		1.08%	1.10%
Denver Broncos	3.82%	3.07%		3.53%	15.91%
Indianapolis Colts	0.81%		2.08%		1.18%	0.99%
New England Patriots		2.69%	32.46%	2.92%		12.52%
Pittsburgh Steelers		1.35%		2.12%	6.34%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Carolina Panthers	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals			1.23%	0.60%	1.39%	0.97%
Carolina Panthers			0.79%	0.51%	0.86%	0.74%
Dallas Cowboys	1.87%	1.89%				7.22%
Detroit Lions	0.47%	0.51%			1.85%
Green Bay Packers	2.59%	2.14%		2.55%		13.32%
Seattle Seahawks	2.78%	2.72%	17.40%		35.60%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Baltimore Ravens	Carolina Panthers	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Indianapolis Colts	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals		0.06%		0.08%		0.50%			0.19%	0.65%	0.26%
Baltimore Ravens	0.10%		0.07%		0.13%		0.08%	0.39%				0.65%
Carolina Panthers		0.04%		0.06%		0.31%			0.07%	0.41%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.07%		0.10%		0.20%		0.05%	0.41%				0.78%
Dallas Cowboys		0.22%		0.28%		1.49%			0.34%	2.67%	0.47%
Denver Broncos	0.63%		0.53%		1.39%		0.34%	2.94%				5.69%
Detroit Lions		0.06%		0.12%		0.33%			0.10%	0.55%	0.09%
Green Bay Packers		0.42%		0.50%		2.40%			0.64%	4.63%	0.94%
Indianapolis Colts	0.08%		0.07%		0.18%		0.10%	0.56%				0.78%
New England Patriots	1.33%		1.01%		3.07%		0.86%	5.73%				13.38%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.24%		0.16%		0.54%		0.15%	1.04%				2.25%
Seattle Seahawks		1.50%		1.84%		9.78%			1.95%	16.30%	3.60%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Seattle Seahawks 34.97% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

36.46%

Win Prob

83.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

60.85%

Win Prob

72.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

46.61%

Win Prob

54.92%

New England Patriots 25.38% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

38.50%

Win Prob

76.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

64.16%

Win Prob

67.11%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

52.72%

Win Prob

45.08%

Denver Broncos 11.52% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

62.68%

Win Prob

62.43%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

60.43%

Win Prob

32.89%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

49.39%

Win Prob

36.78%

Green Bay Packers 9.53% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

64.68%

Win Prob

56.20%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

64.66%

Win Prob

27.23%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

48.58%

Win Prob

44.69%

Dallas Cowboys 5.47% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.40%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

43.80%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

65.76%

Win Prob

29.33%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

48.81%

Win Prob

46.52%

Pittsburgh Steelers 4.38% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Baltimore Ravens

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.57%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

64.63%

Win Prob

33.62%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

51.37%

Win Prob

38.46%

Indianapolis Colts 1.77% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

57.12%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

60.68%

Win Prob

23.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

41.11%

Win Prob

37.08%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

44.07%

Win Prob

28.57%

Arizona Cardinals 1.74% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

48.83%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

59.50%

Win Prob

20.65%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

33.17%

Win Prob

34.92%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

37.36%

Win Prob

32.83%

Cincinnati Bengals 1.61% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Indianapolis Colts

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

42.88%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

57.49%

Win Prob

25.65%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

33.41%

Win Prob

32.82%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

48.45%

Win Prob

29.77%

Baltimore Ravens 1.42% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

35.00%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

26.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

63.71%

Win Prob

38.29%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

45.77%

Win Prob

30.23%

Detroit Lions 1.25% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.60%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

21.21%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

65.37%

Win Prob

42.05%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.00%

Win Prob

39.01%

Carolina Panthers 0.96% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.17%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

55.91%

Win Prob

16.17%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

29.66%

Win Prob

28.67%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

42.71%

Win Prob

28.87%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2014-09-08	San Diego Chargers	W 18-17	1561.88	1560.23	57.97%	41.58%	+6.95	1-0
2014-09-14	@ New York Giants	W 25-14	1568.83	1445.99	59.29%	40.26%	+22.30	2-0
2014-09-21	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-14	1591.13	1618.33	53.88%	45.66%	+22.86	3-0
2014-10-05	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-41	1613.99	1610.13	42.35%	57.19%	-32.41	3-1
2014-10-12	Washington Redskins	W 30-20	1581.58	1345.45	83.97%	15.58%	+8.25	4-1
2014-10-19	@ Oakland Raiders	W 24-13	1589.83	1292.86	79.72%	19.83%	+11.00	5-1
2014-10-26	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-20	1600.83	1602.87	57.45%	42.10%	+14.06	6-1
2014-11-02	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-17	1614.89	1593.13	44.89%	54.66%	+30.24	7-1
2014-11-09	St. Louis Rams	W 31-14	1645.13	1444.55	81.08%	18.46%	+12.74	8-1
2014-11-16	Detroit Lions	W 14-6	1657.87	1569.83	69.34%	30.21%	+14.28	9-1
2014-11-23	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-19	1672.15	1652.56	44.58%	54.97%	-29.77	9-2
2014-11-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 18-29	1642.38	1409.87	73.16%	26.38%	-40.45	9-3
2014-12-07	Kansas City Chiefs	W 17-14	1601.93	1570.21	62.10%	37.45%	+10.83	10-3
2014-12-11	@ St. Louis Rams	W 12-6	1612.76	1519.40	55.15%	44.40%	+18.16	11-3
2014-12-21	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-35	1630.92	1749.66	40.82%	58.72%	-36.72	11-4
2014-12-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-20	1594.20	1516.55	52.91%	46.64%	-15.28	11-5
2014-09-07	New Orleans Saints	W 37-34	1444.34	1571.00	39.73%	59.82%	+17.28	1-0
2014-09-14	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-24	1461.62	1569.87	27.81%	71.73%	-17.40	1-1
2014-09-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 56-14	1444.22	1411.29	62.26%	37.28%	+40.36	2-1
2014-09-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 28-41	1484.58	1461.71	45.04%	54.50%	-27.11	2-2
2014-10-05	@ New York Giants	L 20-30	1457.47	1497.26	36.36%	63.18%	-19.21	2-3
2014-10-12	Chicago Bears	L 13-27	1438.26	1454.28	55.48%	44.07%	-34.62	2-4
2014-10-19	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-29	1403.64	1577.05	20.94%	78.61%	-16.43	2-5
2014-10-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 21-22	1387.21	1550.86	27.86%	71.68%	-4.66	2-6
2014-11-09	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-17	1382.55	1319.62	50.79%	48.75%	+25.73	3-6
2014-11-16	@ Carolina Panthers	W 19-17	1408.28	1438.26	37.68%	61.86%	+14.58	4-6
2014-11-23	Cleveland Browns	L 24-26	1422.86	1441.61	55.09%	44.46%	-12.99	4-7
2014-11-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 29-18	1409.87	1642.38	26.38%	73.16%	+40.46	5-7
2014-12-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 37-43	1450.33	1655.20	18.10%	81.45%	-7.42	5-8
2014-12-14	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-27	1442.91	1587.57	37.28%	62.27%	-16.47	5-9
2014-12-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 30-14	1426.44	1491.70	33.04%	66.50%	+44.35	6-9
2014-12-28	Carolina Panthers	L 3-34	1470.79	1478.31	56.68%	42.87%	-52.63	6-10
2014-09-07	Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-23	1496.00	1547.63	50.38%	49.17%	-22.24	0-1
2014-09-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 26-6	1473.76	1541.35	48.08%	51.46%	+38.39	1-1
2014-09-21	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-21	1512.15	1406.76	56.85%	42.69%	+10.09	2-1
2014-09-28	Carolina Panthers	W 38-10	1522.24	1557.17	52.78%	46.77%	+41.30	3-1
2014-10-05	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-20	1563.54	1552.59	43.35%	56.19%	-19.15	3-2
2014-10-12	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 48-17	1544.39	1383.41	64.44%	35.11%	+32.66	4-2
2014-10-19	Atlanta Falcons	W 29-7	1577.05	1403.64	78.61%	20.94%	+16.43	5-2
2014-10-26	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1593.48	1533.61	50.35%	49.19%	-14.55	5-3
2014-11-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-43	1578.93	1548.52	46.12%	53.42%	-34.43	5-4
2014-11-09	Tennessee Titans	W 21-7	1544.50	1368.35	78.87%	20.68%	+12.94	6-4
2014-11-24	@ New Orleans Saints	W 34-27	1557.44	1533.96	45.13%	54.41%	+24.02	7-4
2014-11-30	San Diego Chargers	L 33-34	1581.46	1558.57	60.90%	38.64%	-10.16	7-5
2014-12-07	@ Miami Dolphins	W 28-13	1571.30	1566.73	42.45%	57.09%	+36.88	8-5
2014-12-14	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-12	1608.18	1253.34	91.02%	8.52%	+4.04	9-5
2014-12-21	@ Houston Texans	L 13-25	1612.22	1468.71	62.11%	37.43%	-35.88	9-6
2014-12-28	Cleveland Browns	W 20-10	1576.34	1374.42	81.20%	18.35%	+9.71	10-6
2014-09-07	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-20	1466.30	1475.41	40.54%	59.01%	+17.04	1-0
2014-09-14	Miami Dolphins	W 29-10	1483.34	1508.42	54.19%	45.36%	+33.00	2-0
2014-09-21	San Diego Chargers	L 10-22	1516.34	1584.32	48.03%	51.52%	-27.76	2-1
2014-09-28	@ Houston Texans	L 17-23	1488.58	1410.73	52.94%	46.61%	-21.63	2-2
2014-10-05	@ Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1466.95	1532.81	32.97%	66.58%	+19.22	3-2
2014-10-12	New England Patriots	L 22-37	1486.17	1603.95	40.96%	58.59%	-26.49	3-3
2014-10-19	Minnesota Vikings	W 17-16	1459.68	1421.42	62.98%	36.57%	+6.11	4-3
2014-10-26	@ New York Jets	W 43-23	1465.79	1369.43	55.57%	43.97%	+32.83	5-3
2014-11-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-17	1498.62	1599.12	43.39%	56.16%	-14.49	5-4
2014-11-13	@ Miami Dolphins	L 9-22	1484.13	1548.50	33.16%	66.39%	-19.97	5-5
2014-11-24	New York Jets	W 38-3	1464.16	1361.01	71.14%	28.41%	+28.09	6-5
2014-11-30	Cleveland Browns	W 26-10	1492.25	1454.60	62.90%	36.65%	+24.49	7-5
2014-12-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-24	1516.74	1673.63	22.55%	76.99%	-9.98	7-6
2014-12-14	Green Bay Packers	W 21-13	1506.76	1662.62	35.78%	63.76%	+30.07	8-6
2014-12-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-26	1536.83	1291.63	74.56%	24.99%	-17.58	8-7
2014-12-28	@ New England Patriots	W 17-9	1519.25	1758.42	15.35%	84.19%	+13.24	9-7
2014-09-07	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-14	1569.56	1439.69	60.26%	39.29%	+16.07	1-0
2014-09-14	Detroit Lions	W 24-7	1585.63	1511.32	67.64%	31.90%	+21.98	2-0
2014-09-21	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 19-37	1607.61	1502.95	71.31%	28.23%	-50.44	2-1
2014-09-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-38	1557.17	1522.24	46.77%	52.78%	-41.31	2-2
2014-10-05	Chicago Bears	W 31-24	1515.86	1469.99	63.99%	35.56%	+15.72	3-2
2014-10-12	@ Cincinnati Bengals	T 37-37	1531.58	1568.84	36.70%	62.84%	+1.09	3-2
2014-10-19	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-38	1532.67	1559.18	38.15%	61.39%	-29.20	3-3
2014-10-26	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-13	1503.47	1639.89	38.39%	61.15%	-12.83	3-4
2014-10-30	New Orleans Saints	L 10-28	1490.64	1564.84	47.13%	52.41%	-33.38	3-5
2014-11-10	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-45	1457.26	1607.81	23.20%	76.35%	-19.00	3-6
2014-11-16	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-19	1438.26	1408.28	61.86%	37.68%	-14.59	3-7
2014-11-30	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-31	1423.67	1413.78	43.20%	56.34%	-30.60	3-8
2014-12-07	@ New Orleans Saints	W 41-10	1393.07	1528.53	24.78%	74.76%	+69.40	4-8
2014-12-14	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-17	1462.47	1314.24	76.11%	23.44%	+5.55	5-8
2014-12-21	Cleveland Browns	W 17-13	1468.02	1384.71	68.76%	30.79%	+10.29	6-8
2014-12-28	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-3	1478.31	1470.79	42.87%	56.68%	+52.63	7-8
2014-09-07	Buffalo Bills	L 20-23	1475.41	1466.30	59.01%	40.54%	-17.04	0-1
2014-09-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 28-20	1458.37	1656.47	18.68%	80.87%	+38.14	1-1
2014-09-22	@ New York Jets	W 27-19	1496.51	1447.61	48.77%	50.77%	+23.96	2-1
2014-09-28	Green Bay Packers	L 17-38	1520.47	1458.66	66.06%	33.48%	-50.48	2-2
2014-10-05	@ Carolina Panthers	L 24-31	1469.99	1515.86	35.56%	63.99%	-15.71	2-3
2014-10-12	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-13	1454.28	1438.26	44.07%	55.48%	+34.62	3-3
2014-10-19	Miami Dolphins	L 14-27	1488.90	1448.20	63.30%	36.24%	-38.06	3-4
2014-10-26	@ New England Patriots	L 23-51	1450.84	1633.76	20.04%	79.50%	-17.75	3-5
2014-11-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 14-55	1433.09	1549.61	26.87%	72.68%	-28.76	3-6
2014-11-16	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-13	1404.33	1444.89	51.97%	47.58%	+22.45	4-6
2014-11-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 21-13	1426.78	1344.03	68.69%	30.85%	+14.59	5-6
2014-11-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-34	1441.37	1537.86	29.19%	70.35%	-20.12	5-7
2014-12-04	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-41	1421.25	1538.25	41.07%	58.48%	-24.73	5-8
2014-12-15	New Orleans Saints	L 15-31	1396.52	1459.12	48.80%	50.75%	-32.57	5-9
2014-12-21	Detroit Lions	L 14-20	1363.95	1575.34	28.81%	70.73%	-11.80	5-10
2014-12-28	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 9-13	1352.15	1441.03	30.11%	69.44%	-10.07	5-11
2014-09-07	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 23-16	1547.63	1496.00	49.17%	50.38%	+22.24	1-0
2014-09-14	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-10	1569.87	1461.62	71.73%	27.81%	+17.40	2-0
2014-09-21	Tennessee Titans	W 33-7	1587.27	1470.72	72.68%	26.87%	+22.90	3-0
2014-10-05	@ New England Patriots	L 17-43	1610.17	1562.61	48.58%	50.96%	-41.33	3-1
2014-10-12	Carolina Panthers	T 37-37	1568.84	1531.58	62.84%	36.70%	-1.09	3-1
2014-10-19	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 0-27	1567.75	1585.57	39.34%	60.21%	-34.14	3-2
2014-10-26	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-24	1533.61	1593.48	49.19%	50.35%	+14.55	4-2
2014-11-02	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 33-23	1548.16	1288.86	85.64%	13.90%	+7.36	5-2
2014-11-06	Cleveland Browns	L 3-24	1555.52	1430.17	73.66%	25.88%	-56.28	5-3
2014-11-16	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-10	1499.24	1581.11	30.96%	68.58%	+47.14	6-3
2014-11-23	@ Houston Texans	W 22-13	1546.38	1460.19	54.13%	45.42%	+22.75	7-3
2014-11-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 14-13	1569.13	1329.44	73.96%	25.59%	+4.28	8-3
2014-12-07	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 21-42	1573.41	1539.94	62.33%	37.21%	-47.63	8-4
2014-12-14	@ Cleveland Browns	W 30-0	1525.78	1424.25	56.31%	43.24%	+39.54	9-4
2014-12-22	Denver Broncos	W 37-28	1565.32	1706.10	37.80%	61.75%	+30.89	10-4
2014-12-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 17-27	1596.21	1621.55	38.31%	61.24%	-20.24	10-5
2014-09-07	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-30	1398.70	1534.17	24.78%	74.77%	-7.18	0-1
2014-09-14	New Orleans Saints	W 26-24	1391.52	1553.72	34.95%	64.60%	+15.24	1-1
2014-09-21	Baltimore Ravens	L 21-23	1406.76	1512.15	42.69%	56.85%	-10.09	1-2
2014-10-05	@ Tennessee Titans	W 29-28	1396.67	1422.19	38.29%	61.26%	+10.22	2-2
2014-10-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 31-10	1406.89	1541.92	38.58%	60.96%	+46.58	3-2
2014-10-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 6-24	1453.47	1261.13	68.43%	31.11%	-48.40	3-3
2014-10-26	Oakland Raiders	W 23-13	1405.07	1281.85	73.43%	26.12%	+13.81	4-3
2014-11-02	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 22-17	1418.88	1330.92	69.33%	30.22%	+11.29	5-3
2014-11-06	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-3	1430.17	1555.52	25.88%	73.66%	+56.29	6-3
2014-11-16	Houston Texans	L 7-23	1486.46	1415.34	67.24%	32.30%	-44.85	6-4
2014-11-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 26-24	1441.61	1422.86	44.46%	55.09%	+12.99	7-4
2014-11-30	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-26	1454.60	1492.25	36.65%	62.90%	-24.49	7-5
2014-12-07	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-25	1430.11	1591.24	35.09%	64.46%	-5.86	7-6
2014-12-14	Cincinnati Bengals	L 0-30	1424.25	1525.78	43.24%	56.31%	-39.54	7-7
2014-12-21	@ Carolina Panthers	L 13-17	1384.71	1468.02	30.79%	68.76%	-10.29	7-8
2014-12-28	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 10-20	1374.42	1576.34	18.35%	81.20%	-9.71	7-9
2014-09-07	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-28	1493.03	1635.67	37.55%	62.00%	-20.81	0-1
2014-09-14	@ Tennessee Titans	W 26-10	1472.22	1512.95	36.24%	63.31%	+42.23	1-1
2014-09-21	@ St. Louis Rams	W 34-31	1514.45	1474.41	47.50%	52.04%	+15.03	2-1
2014-09-28	New Orleans Saints	W 38-17	1529.48	1557.32	53.79%	45.75%	+35.00	3-1
2014-10-05	Houston Texans	W 20-17	1564.48	1432.36	74.40%	25.14%	+7.28	4-1
2014-10-12	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 30-23	1571.76	1689.18	26.77%	72.78%	+32.11	5-1
2014-10-19	New York Giants	W 31-21	1603.87	1486.83	72.73%	26.81%	+14.17	6-1
2014-10-27	Washington Redskins	L 17-20	1618.04	1349.78	86.25%	13.30%	-24.91	6-2
2014-11-02	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-28	1593.13	1614.89	54.66%	44.89%	-30.24	6-3
2014-11-09	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-17	1562.89	1281.50	83.15%	16.40%	+10.27	7-3
2014-11-23	@ New York Giants	W 31-28	1573.16	1417.18	63.78%	35.77%	+10.35	8-3
2014-11-27	Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-33	1583.51	1591.63	56.59%	42.95%	-45.26	8-4
2014-12-04	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-28	1538.25	1421.25	58.48%	41.07%	+24.72	9-4
2014-12-14	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-27	1562.97	1612.33	35.10%	64.45%	+35.64	10-4
2014-12-21	Indianapolis Colts	W 42-7	1598.61	1608.99	56.27%	43.27%	+42.74	11-4
2014-12-28	@ Washington Redskins	W 44-17	1641.35	1286.57	84.49%	15.06%	+13.10	12-4
2014-09-07	Indianapolis Colts	W 31-24	1599.65	1528.59	67.24%	32.31%	+14.29	1-0
2014-09-14	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-17	1613.94	1480.33	74.57%	24.98%	+11.05	2-0
2014-09-21	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 20-26	1624.99	1665.13	36.32%	63.23%	-14.86	2-1
2014-10-05	Arizona Cardinals	W 41-20	1610.13	1613.99	57.19%	42.35%	+32.40	3-1
2014-10-12	@ New York Jets	W 31-17	1642.53	1387.75	75.58%	23.97%	+15.01	4-1
2014-10-19	San Francisco 49ers	W 42-17	1657.54	1643.96	59.62%	39.92%	+33.33	5-1
2014-10-23	San Diego Chargers	W 35-21	1690.87	1619.88	67.23%	32.32%	+20.21	6-1
2014-11-02	@ New England Patriots	L 21-43	1711.08	1651.50	50.31%	49.23%	-39.37	6-2
2014-11-09	@ Oakland Raiders	W 41-17	1671.71	1265.06	87.92%	11.62%	+9.53	7-2
2014-11-16	@ St. Louis Rams	L 7-22	1681.24	1431.81	75.01%	24.54%	-48.43	7-3
2014-11-23	Miami Dolphins	W 39-36	1632.81	1568.48	66.38%	33.16%	+9.59	8-3
2014-11-30	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 29-16	1642.40	1601.43	47.63%	51.91%	+31.23	9-3
2014-12-07	Buffalo Bills	W 24-17	1673.63	1516.74	76.99%	22.55%	+9.98	10-3
2014-12-14	@ San Diego Chargers	W 22-10	1683.61	1550.69	60.68%	38.87%	+22.49	11-3
2014-12-22	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 28-37	1706.10	1565.32	61.75%	37.80%	-30.89	11-4
2014-12-28	Oakland Raiders	W 47-14	1675.21	1309.21	91.51%	8.04%	+7.73	12-4
2014-09-08	New York Giants	W 35-14	1479.51	1477.80	57.97%	41.57%	+31.81	1-0
2014-09-14	@ Carolina Panthers	L 7-24	1511.32	1585.63	31.90%	67.64%	-21.99	1-1
2014-09-21	Green Bay Packers	W 19-7	1489.33	1482.28	58.72%	40.83%	+23.62	2-1
2014-09-28	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1512.95	1423.65	54.57%	44.97%	+19.86	3-1
2014-10-05	Buffalo Bills	L 14-17	1532.81	1466.95	66.58%	32.97%	-19.22	3-2
2014-10-12	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-3	1513.59	1451.98	50.60%	48.94%	+30.56	4-2
2014-10-19	New Orleans Saints	W 24-23	1544.15	1532.79	59.32%	40.23%	+6.71	5-2
2014-10-26	Atlanta Falcons	W 22-21	1550.86	1387.21	71.68%	27.86%	+4.66	6-2
2014-11-09	Miami Dolphins	W 20-16	1555.52	1562.80	56.71%	42.83%	+14.31	7-2
2014-11-16	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 6-14	1569.83	1657.87	30.21%	69.34%	-14.29	7-3
2014-11-23	@ New England Patriots	L 9-34	1555.54	1726.85	21.14%	78.41%	-17.68	7-4
2014-11-27	Chicago Bears	W 34-17	1537.86	1441.37	70.35%	29.19%	+20.13	8-4
2014-12-07	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 34-17	1557.99	1325.16	83.71%	15.83%	+10.92	9-4
2014-12-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-14	1568.91	1455.26	72.35%	27.19%	+6.43	10-4
2014-12-21	@ Chicago Bears	W 20-14	1575.34	1363.95	70.73%	28.81%	+11.80	11-4
2014-12-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-30	1587.14	1644.61	34.04%	65.50%	-17.99	11-5
2014-09-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 16-36	1477.15	1682.66	18.04%	81.50%	-13.50	0-1
2014-09-14	New York Jets	W 31-24	1463.65	1466.24	57.37%	42.17%	+18.63	1-1
2014-09-21	@ Detroit Lions	L 7-19	1482.28	1489.33	40.83%	58.72%	-23.62	1-2
2014-09-28	@ Chicago Bears	W 38-17	1458.66	1520.47	33.48%	66.06%	+50.47	2-2
2014-10-02	Minnesota Vikings	W 42-10	1509.13	1488.82	60.55%	39.00%	+36.85	3-2
2014-10-12	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-24	1545.98	1461.40	53.90%	45.65%	+13.20	4-2
2014-10-19	Carolina Panthers	W 38-17	1559.18	1532.67	61.39%	38.15%	+29.20	5-2
2014-10-26	@ New Orleans Saints	L 23-44	1588.38	1526.07	50.70%	48.84%	-38.77	5-3
2014-11-09	Chicago Bears	W 55-14	1549.61	1433.09	72.68%	26.87%	+28.77	6-3
2014-11-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 53-20	1578.38	1626.82	50.84%	48.71%	+46.69	7-3
2014-11-23	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 24-21	1625.07	1422.43	69.69%	29.86%	+8.65	8-3
2014-11-30	New England Patriots	W 26-21	1633.72	1744.53	41.93%	57.61%	+21.48	9-3
2014-12-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 43-37	1655.20	1450.33	81.45%	18.10%	+7.42	10-3
2014-12-14	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-21	1662.62	1506.76	63.76%	35.78%	-30.07	10-4
2014-12-21	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 20-3	1632.55	1308.69	82.06%	17.48%	+12.06	11-4
2014-12-28	Detroit Lions	W 30-20	1644.61	1587.14	65.50%	34.04%	+17.99	12-4
2014-09-07	Washington Redskins	W 17-6	1377.06	1397.17	54.89%	44.65%	+24.72	1-0
2014-09-14	@ Oakland Raiders	W 30-14	1401.78	1367.16	46.72%	52.82%	+35.25	2-0
2014-09-21	@ New York Giants	L 17-30	1437.03	1423.69	43.69%	55.86%	-26.30	2-1
2014-09-28	Buffalo Bills	W 23-17	1410.73	1488.58	46.61%	52.94%	+21.63	3-1
2014-10-05	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-20	1432.36	1564.48	25.14%	74.40%	-7.29	3-2
2014-10-09	Indianapolis Colts	L 28-33	1425.07	1571.74	37.01%	62.54%	-13.82	3-3
2014-10-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 23-30	1411.25	1495.33	30.69%	68.85%	-13.57	3-4
2014-10-26	@ Tennessee Titans	W 30-16	1397.68	1405.02	40.79%	58.76%	+36.66	4-4
2014-11-02	Philadelphia Eagles	L 21-31	1434.34	1588.81	35.97%	63.58%	-19.00	4-5
2014-11-16	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-7	1415.34	1486.46	32.30%	67.24%	+44.85	5-5
2014-11-23	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-22	1460.19	1546.38	45.42%	54.13%	-22.75	5-6
2014-11-30	Tennessee Titans	W 45-21	1437.44	1334.96	71.06%	28.49%	+23.33	6-6
2014-12-07	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-13	1460.77	1273.17	67.85%	31.70%	+19.83	7-6
2014-12-14	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-17	1480.60	1597.10	26.87%	72.67%	-11.89	7-7
2014-12-21	Baltimore Ravens	W 25-13	1468.71	1612.22	37.43%	62.11%	+35.88	8-7
2014-12-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1504.59	1269.19	83.91%	15.64%	+6.41	9-7
2014-09-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-31	1528.59	1599.65	32.31%	67.24%	-14.29	0-1
2014-09-15	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-30	1514.30	1554.74	51.99%	47.56%	-15.02	0-2
2014-09-21	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 44-17	1499.28	1313.11	67.67%	31.88%	+27.68	1-2
2014-09-28	Tennessee Titans	W 41-17	1526.96	1447.82	68.25%	31.30%	+25.63	2-2
2014-10-05	Baltimore Ravens	W 20-13	1552.59	1563.54	56.19%	43.35%	+19.15	3-2
2014-10-09	@ Houston Texans	W 33-28	1571.74	1425.07	62.54%	37.01%	+13.83	4-2
2014-10-19	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-0	1585.57	1567.75	60.21%	39.34%	+34.14	5-2
2014-10-26	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 34-51	1619.71	1508.90	57.61%	41.93%	-39.62	5-3
2014-11-03	@ New York Giants	W 40-24	1580.09	1472.66	57.14%	42.41%	+28.32	6-3
2014-11-16	New England Patriots	L 20-42	1608.41	1690.88	45.95%	53.60%	-35.97	6-4
2014-11-23	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-3	1572.44	1271.23	88.29%	11.26%	+8.43	7-4
2014-11-30	Washington Redskins	W 49-27	1580.87	1311.09	86.35%	13.20%	+10.37	8-4
2014-12-07	@ Cleveland Browns	W 25-24	1591.24	1430.11	64.46%	35.09%	+5.86	9-4
2014-12-14	Houston Texans	W 17-10	1597.10	1480.60	72.67%	26.87%	+11.89	10-4
2014-12-21	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 7-42	1608.99	1598.61	43.27%	56.27%	-42.74	10-5
2014-12-28	@ Tennessee Titans	W 27-10	1566.25	1231.52	82.95%	16.60%	+3.81	11-5
2014-09-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-34	1363.15	1540.56	20.56%	78.99%	-14.18	0-1
2014-09-14	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-41	1348.97	1372.45	38.56%	60.98%	-35.86	0-2
2014-09-21	Indianapolis Colts	L 17-44	1313.11	1499.28	31.88%	67.67%	-27.69	0-3
2014-09-28	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-33	1285.42	1612.08	9.88%	89.67%	-7.21	0-4
2014-10-05	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-17	1278.21	1530.45	24.24%	75.31%	-11.46	0-5
2014-10-12	@ Tennessee Titans	L 14-16	1266.75	1411.97	23.75%	75.80%	-5.62	0-6
2014-10-19	Cleveland Browns	W 24-6	1261.13	1453.47	31.11%	68.43%	+48.41	1-6
2014-10-26	Miami Dolphins	L 13-27	1309.54	1486.26	33.07%	66.47%	-20.68	1-7
2014-11-02	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 23-33	1288.86	1548.16	13.90%	85.64%	-7.36	1-8
2014-11-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-31	1281.50	1562.89	16.40%	83.15%	-10.27	1-9
2014-11-23	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 3-23	1271.23	1572.44	11.26%	88.29%	-8.43	1-10
2014-11-30	New York Giants	W 25-24	1262.80	1406.83	37.36%	62.19%	+10.37	2-10
2014-12-07	Houston Texans	L 13-27	1273.17	1460.77	31.70%	67.85%	-19.83	2-11
2014-12-14	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 12-20	1253.34	1608.18	8.52%	91.02%	-4.04	2-12
2014-12-18	Tennessee Titans	W 21-13	1249.30	1251.41	57.44%	42.11%	+19.89	3-12
2014-12-28	@ Houston Texans	L 17-23	1269.19	1504.59	15.64%	83.91%	-6.41	3-13
2014-09-07	Tennessee Titans	L 10-26	1523.73	1469.54	65.08%	34.47%	-43.40	0-1
2014-09-14	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-24	1480.33	1613.94	24.98%	74.57%	-11.06	0-2
2014-09-21	@ Miami Dolphins	W 34-15	1469.27	1475.42	40.95%	58.59%	+42.60	1-2
2014-09-29	New England Patriots	W 41-14	1511.87	1611.13	43.56%	55.99%	+48.52	2-2
2014-10-05	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 17-22	1560.39	1610.08	35.06%	64.49%	-13.10	2-3
2014-10-19	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-20	1547.29	1640.07	29.64%	69.91%	+20.19	3-3
2014-10-26	St. Louis Rams	W 34-7	1567.48	1444.10	73.45%	26.10%	+22.68	4-3
2014-11-02	New York Jets	W 24-10	1590.16	1336.60	85.24%	14.31%	+8.96	5-3
2014-11-09	@ Buffalo Bills	W 17-13	1599.12	1498.62	56.16%	43.39%	+14.48	6-3
2014-11-16	Seattle Seahawks	W 24-20	1613.60	1669.15	49.81%	49.73%	+16.60	7-3
2014-11-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-24	1630.20	1250.19	86.25%	13.29%	-28.77	7-4
2014-11-30	Denver Broncos	L 16-29	1601.43	1642.40	51.91%	47.63%	-31.22	7-5
2014-12-07	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 14-17	1570.21	1601.93	37.45%	62.10%	-10.84	7-6
2014-12-14	Oakland Raiders	W 31-13	1559.37	1301.58	85.54%	14.01%	+9.95	8-6
2014-12-21	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-20	1569.32	1604.05	37.04%	62.50%	-17.50	8-7
2014-12-28	San Diego Chargers	W 19-7	1551.82	1545.09	58.67%	40.87%	+23.64	9-7
2014-09-07	New England Patriots	W 33-20	1472.37	1600.02	39.59%	59.95%	+36.05	1-0
2014-09-14	@ Buffalo Bills	L 10-29	1508.42	1483.34	45.36%	54.19%	-33.00	1-1
2014-09-21	Kansas City Chiefs	L 15-34	1475.42	1469.27	58.59%	40.95%	-42.59	1-2
2014-09-28	Oakland Raiders	W 38-14	1432.83	1326.17	64.64%	34.91%	+28.57	2-2
2014-10-12	Green Bay Packers	L 24-27	1461.40	1545.98	45.65%	53.90%	-13.20	2-3
2014-10-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-14	1448.20	1488.90	36.24%	63.30%	+38.06	3-3
2014-10-26	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-13	1486.26	1309.54	66.47%	33.07%	+20.68	4-3
2014-11-02	San Diego Chargers	W 37-0	1506.94	1599.67	44.49%	55.06%	+55.86	5-3
2014-11-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 16-20	1562.80	1555.52	42.83%	56.71%	-14.30	5-4
2014-11-13	Buffalo Bills	W 22-9	1548.50	1484.13	66.39%	33.16%	+19.98	6-4
2014-11-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 36-39	1568.48	1632.81	33.16%	66.38%	-9.60	6-5
2014-12-01	@ New York Jets	W 16-13	1558.88	1332.91	72.42%	27.12%	+7.85	7-5
2014-12-07	Baltimore Ravens	L 13-28	1566.73	1571.30	57.09%	42.45%	-36.88	7-6
2014-12-14	@ New England Patriots	L 13-41	1529.85	1741.08	17.56%	81.99%	-15.55	7-7
2014-12-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 37-35	1514.30	1448.83	66.53%	33.02%	+7.81	8-7
2014-12-28	New York Jets	L 24-37	1522.11	1331.62	80.19%	19.35%	-48.21	8-8
2014-09-07	@ St. Louis Rams	W 34-6	1464.43	1519.60	34.34%	65.20%	+57.53	1-0
2014-09-14	New England Patriots	L 7-30	1521.96	1563.98	51.76%	47.78%	-41.41	1-1
2014-09-21	@ New Orleans Saints	L 9-20	1480.55	1538.49	33.98%	65.56%	-18.84	1-2
2014-09-28	Atlanta Falcons	W 41-28	1461.71	1484.58	54.50%	45.04%	+27.11	2-2
2014-10-02	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-42	1488.82	1509.13	39.00%	60.55%	-36.84	2-3
2014-10-12	Detroit Lions	L 3-17	1451.98	1513.59	48.94%	50.60%	-30.56	2-4
2014-10-19	@ Buffalo Bills	L 16-17	1421.42	1459.68	36.57%	62.98%	-6.11	2-5
2014-10-26	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-13	1415.31	1350.75	51.03%	48.52%	+19.83	3-5
2014-11-02	Washington Redskins	W 29-26	1435.14	1374.69	65.89%	33.66%	+9.75	4-5
2014-11-16	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-21	1444.89	1404.33	47.58%	51.97%	-22.46	4-6
2014-11-23	Green Bay Packers	L 21-24	1422.43	1625.07	29.86%	69.69%	-8.65	4-7
2014-11-30	Carolina Panthers	W 31-13	1413.78	1423.67	56.34%	43.20%	+30.61	5-7
2014-12-07	New York Jets	W 30-24	1444.39	1325.05	72.99%	26.55%	+10.87	6-7
2014-12-14	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-16	1455.26	1568.91	27.19%	72.35%	-6.43	6-8
2014-12-21	@ Miami Dolphins	L 35-37	1448.83	1514.30	33.02%	66.53%	-7.80	6-9
2014-12-28	Chicago Bears	W 13-9	1441.03	1352.15	69.44%	30.11%	+10.06	7-9
2014-09-07	@ Miami Dolphins	L 20-33	1600.02	1472.37	59.95%	39.59%	-36.04	0-1
2014-09-14	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-7	1563.98	1521.96	47.78%	51.76%	+41.41	1-1
2014-09-21	Oakland Raiders	W 16-9	1605.39	1331.91	86.59%	12.96%	+5.74	2-1
2014-09-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-41	1611.13	1511.87	55.99%	43.56%	-48.52	2-2
2014-10-05	Cincinnati Bengals	W 43-17	1562.61	1610.17	50.96%	48.58%	+41.34	3-2
2014-10-12	@ Buffalo Bills	W 37-22	1603.95	1486.17	58.59%	40.96%	+26.49	4-2
2014-10-16	New York Jets	W 27-25	1630.44	1372.75	85.53%	14.02%	+3.32	5-2
2014-10-26	Chicago Bears	W 51-23	1633.76	1450.84	79.50%	20.04%	+17.74	6-2
2014-11-02	Denver Broncos	W 43-21	1651.50	1711.08	49.23%	50.31%	+39.38	7-2
2014-11-16	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 42-20	1690.88	1608.41	53.60%	45.95%	+35.97	8-2
2014-11-23	Detroit Lions	W 34-9	1726.85	1555.54	78.41%	21.14%	+17.68	9-2
2014-11-30	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-26	1744.53	1633.72	57.61%	41.93%	-21.48	9-3
2014-12-07	@ San Diego Chargers	W 23-14	1723.05	1568.72	63.56%	35.98%	+18.03	10-3
2014-12-14	Miami Dolphins	W 41-13	1741.08	1529.85	81.99%	17.56%	+15.55	11-3
2014-12-21	@ New York Jets	W 17-16	1756.63	1333.41	88.87%	10.68%	+1.79	12-3
2014-12-28	Buffalo Bills	L 9-17	1758.42	1519.25	84.19%	15.35%	-13.24	12-4
2014-09-07	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 34-37	1571.00	1444.34	59.82%	39.73%	-17.28	0-1
2014-09-14	@ Cleveland Browns	L 24-26	1553.72	1391.52	64.60%	34.95%	-15.23	0-2
2014-09-21	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-9	1538.49	1480.55	65.56%	33.98%	+18.83	1-2
2014-09-28	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-38	1557.32	1529.48	45.75%	53.79%	-34.99	1-3
2014-10-05	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-31	1522.33	1393.87	74.00%	25.54%	+10.46	2-3
2014-10-19	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-24	1532.79	1544.15	40.23%	59.32%	-6.72	2-4
2014-10-26	Green Bay Packers	W 44-23	1526.07	1588.38	48.84%	50.70%	+38.77	3-4
2014-10-30	@ Carolina Panthers	W 28-10	1564.84	1490.64	52.41%	47.13%	+33.37	4-4
2014-11-09	San Francisco 49ers	L 24-27	1598.21	1587.49	59.23%	40.32%	-17.10	4-5
2014-11-16	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1581.11	1499.24	68.58%	30.96%	-47.15	4-6
2014-11-24	Baltimore Ravens	L 27-34	1533.96	1557.44	54.41%	45.13%	-24.01	4-7
2014-11-30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-32	1509.95	1558.52	35.20%	64.34%	+18.58	5-7
2014-12-07	Carolina Panthers	L 10-41	1528.53	1393.07	74.76%	24.78%	-69.41	5-8
2014-12-15	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-15	1459.12	1396.52	50.75%	48.80%	+32.58	6-8
2014-12-21	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-30	1491.70	1426.44	66.50%	33.04%	-44.36	6-9
2014-12-28	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 23-20	1447.34	1296.63	63.08%	36.47%	+10.56	7-9
2014-09-08	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-35	1477.80	1479.51	41.57%	57.97%	-31.81	0-1
2014-09-14	Arizona Cardinals	L 14-25	1445.99	1568.83	40.26%	59.29%	-22.30	0-2
2014-09-21	Houston Texans	W 30-17	1423.69	1437.03	55.86%	43.69%	+26.30	1-2
2014-09-25	@ Washington Redskins	W 45-14	1449.99	1401.91	48.66%	50.89%	+47.27	2-2
2014-10-05	Atlanta Falcons	W 30-20	1497.26	1457.47	63.18%	36.36%	+19.21	3-2
2014-10-12	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 0-27	1516.47	1573.23	34.13%	65.41%	-29.64	3-3
2014-10-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-31	1486.83	1603.87	26.81%	72.73%	-14.17	3-4
2014-11-03	Indianapolis Colts	L 24-40	1472.66	1580.09	42.41%	57.14%	-28.33	3-5
2014-11-09	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-38	1444.33	1655.70	17.55%	82.00%	-13.45	3-6
2014-11-16	San Francisco 49ers	L 10-16	1430.88	1604.60	33.45%	66.09%	-13.70	3-7
2014-11-23	Dallas Cowboys	L 28-31	1417.18	1573.16	35.77%	63.78%	-10.35	3-8
2014-11-30	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 24-25	1406.83	1262.80	62.19%	37.36%	-10.37	3-9
2014-12-07	@ Tennessee Titans	W 36-7	1396.46	1311.63	53.93%	45.61%	+41.00	4-9
2014-12-14	Washington Redskins	W 24-13	1437.46	1275.35	77.51%	22.03%	+12.23	5-9
2014-12-21	@ St. Louis Rams	W 37-27	1449.69	1501.25	34.81%	64.73%	+34.13	6-9
2014-12-28	Philadelphia Eagles	L 26-34	1483.82	1553.24	47.82%	51.73%	-22.57	6-10
2014-09-07	Oakland Raiders	W 19-14	1454.36	1379.03	67.77%	31.77%	+11.88	1-0
2014-09-14	@ Green Bay Packers	L 24-31	1466.24	1463.65	42.17%	57.37%	-18.63	1-1
2014-09-22	Chicago Bears	L 19-27	1447.61	1496.51	50.77%	48.77%	-23.96	1-2
2014-09-28	Detroit Lions	L 17-24	1423.65	1512.95	44.97%	54.57%	-19.87	1-3
2014-10-05	@ San Diego Chargers	L 0-31	1403.78	1619.29	17.21%	82.34%	-16.03	1-4
2014-10-12	Denver Broncos	L 17-31	1387.75	1642.53	23.97%	75.58%	-15.00	1-5
2014-10-16	@ New England Patriots	L 25-27	1372.75	1630.44	14.02%	85.53%	-3.32	1-6
2014-10-26	Buffalo Bills	L 23-43	1369.43	1465.79	43.97%	55.57%	-32.83	1-7
2014-11-02	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-24	1336.60	1590.16	14.31%	85.24%	-8.96	1-8
2014-11-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-13	1327.64	1582.95	23.92%	75.63%	+33.37	2-8
2014-11-24	@ Buffalo Bills	L 3-38	1361.01	1464.16	28.41%	71.14%	-28.10	2-9
2014-12-01	Miami Dolphins	L 13-16	1332.91	1558.88	27.12%	72.42%	-7.86	2-10
2014-12-07	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-30	1325.05	1444.39	26.55%	72.99%	-10.87	2-11
2014-12-14	@ Tennessee Titans	W 16-11	1314.18	1270.63	48.00%	51.54%	+19.23	3-11
2014-12-21	New England Patriots	L 16-17	1333.41	1756.63	10.68%	88.87%	-1.79	3-12
2014-12-28	@ Miami Dolphins	W 37-24	1331.62	1522.11	19.35%	80.19%	+48.21	4-12
2014-09-07	@ New York Jets	L 14-19	1379.03	1454.36	31.77%	67.77%	-11.87	0-1
2014-09-14	Houston Texans	L 14-30	1367.16	1401.78	52.82%	46.72%	-35.25	0-2
2014-09-21	@ New England Patriots	L 9-16	1331.91	1605.39	12.96%	86.59%	-5.74	0-3
2014-09-28	@ Miami Dolphins	L 14-38	1326.17	1432.83	34.91%	64.64%	-28.57	0-4
2014-10-12	San Diego Chargers	L 28-31	1297.60	1635.33	16.36%	83.19%	-4.74	0-5
2014-10-19	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-24	1292.86	1589.83	19.83%	79.72%	-11.01	0-6
2014-10-26	@ Cleveland Browns	L 13-23	1281.85	1405.07	26.12%	73.43%	-13.81	0-7
2014-11-02	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-30	1268.04	1652.71	7.28%	92.27%	-2.98	0-8
2014-11-09	Denver Broncos	L 17-41	1265.06	1671.71	11.62%	87.92%	-9.54	0-9
2014-11-16	@ San Diego Chargers	L 6-13	1255.52	1543.81	12.02%	87.52%	-5.33	0-10
2014-11-20	Kansas City Chiefs	W 24-20	1250.19	1630.20	13.29%	86.25%	+28.77	1-10
2014-11-30	@ St. Louis Rams	L 0-52	1278.96	1470.81	19.23%	80.31%	-23.20	1-11
2014-12-07	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-13	1255.76	1589.23	16.70%	82.85%	+45.82	2-11
2014-12-14	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-31	1301.58	1559.37	14.01%	85.54%	-9.95	2-12
2014-12-21	Buffalo Bills	W 26-24	1291.63	1536.83	24.99%	74.56%	+17.58	3-12
2014-12-28	@ Denver Broncos	L 14-47	1309.21	1675.21	8.04%	91.51%	-7.73	3-13
2014-09-07	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 34-17	1540.56	1363.15	78.99%	20.56%	+14.18	1-0
2014-09-15	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 30-27	1554.74	1514.30	47.56%	51.99%	+15.02	2-0
2014-09-21	Washington Redskins	W 37-34	1569.76	1408.32	77.45%	22.10%	+6.41	3-0
2014-09-28	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 21-26	1576.17	1595.47	39.14%	60.41%	-14.62	3-1
2014-10-05	St. Louis Rams	W 34-28	1561.55	1459.37	71.02%	28.52%	+11.68	4-1
2014-10-12	New York Giants	W 27-0	1573.23	1516.47	65.41%	34.13%	+29.64	5-1
2014-10-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-24	1602.87	1600.83	42.10%	57.45%	-14.06	5-2
2014-11-02	@ Houston Texans	W 31-21	1588.81	1434.34	63.58%	35.97%	+19.00	6-2
2014-11-10	Carolina Panthers	W 45-21	1607.81	1457.26	76.35%	23.20%	+19.01	7-2
2014-11-16	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-53	1626.82	1578.38	48.71%	50.84%	-46.69	7-3
2014-11-23	Tennessee Titans	W 43-24	1580.13	1346.47	83.78%	15.77%	+11.50	8-3
2014-11-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 33-10	1591.63	1583.51	42.95%	56.59%	+45.27	9-3
2014-12-07	Seattle Seahawks	L 14-24	1636.90	1715.12	46.56%	52.99%	-24.57	9-4
2014-12-14	Dallas Cowboys	L 27-38	1612.33	1562.97	64.45%	35.10%	-35.64	9-5
2014-12-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-27	1576.69	1263.12	81.19%	18.35%	-23.45	9-6
2014-12-28	@ New York Giants	W 34-26	1553.24	1483.82	51.73%	47.82%	+22.57	10-6
2014-09-07	Cleveland Browns	W 30-27	1534.17	1398.70	74.77%	24.78%	+7.18	1-0
2014-09-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-26	1541.35	1473.76	51.46%	48.08%	-38.40	1-1
2014-09-21	@ Carolina Panthers	W 37-19	1502.95	1607.61	28.23%	71.31%	+50.45	2-1
2014-09-28	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-27	1553.40	1370.93	79.46%	20.09%	-22.95	2-2
2014-10-05	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 17-9	1530.45	1278.21	75.31%	24.24%	+11.47	3-2
2014-10-12	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-31	1541.92	1406.89	60.96%	38.58%	-46.59	3-3
2014-10-20	Houston Texans	W 30-23	1495.33	1411.25	68.85%	30.69%	+13.57	4-3
2014-10-26	Indianapolis Colts	W 51-34	1508.90	1619.71	41.93%	57.61%	+39.62	5-3
2014-11-02	Baltimore Ravens	W 43-23	1548.52	1578.93	53.42%	46.12%	+34.43	6-3
2014-11-09	@ New York Jets	L 13-20	1582.95	1327.64	75.63%	23.92%	-33.37	6-4
2014-11-17	@ Tennessee Titans	W 27-24	1549.58	1355.41	68.66%	30.89%	+8.94	7-4
2014-11-30	New Orleans Saints	L 32-35	1558.52	1509.95	64.34%	35.20%	-18.58	7-5
2014-12-07	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 42-21	1539.94	1573.41	37.21%	62.33%	+47.63	8-5
2014-12-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 27-20	1587.57	1442.91	62.27%	37.28%	+16.48	9-5
2014-12-21	Kansas City Chiefs	W 20-12	1604.05	1569.32	62.50%	37.04%	+17.50	10-5
2014-12-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 27-17	1621.55	1596.21	61.24%	38.31%	+20.24	11-5
2014-09-08	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 17-18	1560.23	1561.88	41.58%	57.97%	-6.94	0-1
2014-09-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 30-21	1553.29	1696.16	37.52%	62.03%	+31.03	1-1
2014-09-21	@ Buffalo Bills	W 22-10	1584.32	1516.34	51.52%	48.03%	+27.76	2-1
2014-09-28	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 33-14	1612.08	1285.42	89.67%	9.88%	+7.21	3-1
2014-10-05	New York Jets	W 31-0	1619.29	1403.78	82.34%	17.21%	+16.04	4-1
2014-10-12	@ Oakland Raiders	W 31-28	1635.33	1297.60	83.19%	16.36%	+4.74	5-1
2014-10-19	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-23	1640.07	1547.29	69.91%	29.64%	-20.19	5-2
2014-10-23	@ Denver Broncos	L 21-35	1619.88	1690.87	32.32%	67.23%	-20.21	5-3
2014-11-02	@ Miami Dolphins	L 0-37	1599.67	1506.94	55.06%	44.49%	-55.86	5-4
2014-11-16	Oakland Raiders	W 13-6	1543.81	1255.52	87.52%	12.02%	+5.33	6-4
2014-11-23	St. Louis Rams	W 27-24	1549.14	1480.25	66.96%	32.58%	+9.43	7-4
2014-11-30	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 34-33	1558.57	1581.46	38.64%	60.90%	+10.15	8-4
2014-12-07	New England Patriots	L 14-23	1568.72	1723.05	35.98%	63.56%	-18.03	8-5
2014-12-14	Denver Broncos	L 10-22	1550.69	1683.61	38.87%	60.68%	-22.49	8-6
2014-12-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 38-35	1528.20	1533.44	41.08%	58.47%	+16.89	9-6
2014-12-28	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-19	1545.09	1551.82	40.87%	58.67%	-23.65	9-7
2014-09-07	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 28-17	1635.67	1493.03	62.00%	37.55%	+20.80	1-0
2014-09-14	Chicago Bears	L 20-28	1656.47	1458.37	80.87%	18.68%	-38.14	1-1
2014-09-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 14-23	1618.33	1591.13	45.66%	53.88%	-22.86	1-2
2014-09-28	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-21	1595.47	1576.17	60.41%	39.14%	+14.61	2-2
2014-10-05	Kansas City Chiefs	W 22-17	1610.08	1560.39	64.49%	35.06%	+13.10	3-2
2014-10-13	@ St. Louis Rams	W 31-17	1623.18	1447.69	66.32%	33.23%	+20.78	4-2
2014-10-19	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-42	1643.96	1657.54	39.92%	59.62%	-33.34	4-3
2014-11-02	St. Louis Rams	L 10-13	1610.62	1421.42	80.07%	19.47%	-23.13	4-4
2014-11-09	@ New Orleans Saints	W 27-24	1587.49	1598.21	40.32%	59.23%	+17.11	5-4
2014-11-16	@ New York Giants	W 16-10	1604.60	1430.88	66.09%	33.45%	+13.69	6-4
2014-11-23	Washington Redskins	W 17-13	1618.29	1314.82	88.42%	11.13%	+3.73	7-4
2014-11-27	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-19	1622.02	1682.33	49.13%	50.41%	-32.79	7-5
2014-12-07	@ Oakland Raiders	L 13-24	1589.23	1255.76	82.85%	16.70%	-45.82	7-6
2014-12-14	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-17	1543.41	1739.69	18.84%	80.71%	-9.97	7-7
2014-12-20	San Diego Chargers	L 35-38	1533.44	1528.20	58.47%	41.08%	-16.89	7-8
2014-12-28	Arizona Cardinals	W 20-17	1516.55	1594.20	46.64%	52.91%	+15.29	8-8
2014-09-04	Green Bay Packers	W 36-16	1682.66	1477.15	81.50%	18.04%	+13.50	1-0
2014-09-14	@ San Diego Chargers	L 21-30	1696.16	1553.29	62.03%	37.52%	-31.03	1-1
2014-09-21	Denver Broncos	W 26-20	1665.13	1624.99	63.23%	36.32%	+14.86	2-1
2014-10-06	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-17	1679.99	1354.64	82.19%	17.36%	+9.19	3-1
2014-10-12	Dallas Cowboys	L 23-30	1689.18	1571.76	72.78%	26.77%	-32.11	3-2
2014-10-19	@ St. Louis Rams	L 26-28	1657.07	1426.91	72.90%	26.65%	-17.18	3-3
2014-10-26	@ Carolina Panthers	W 13-9	1639.89	1503.47	61.15%	38.39%	+12.82	4-3
2014-11-02	Oakland Raiders	W 30-24	1652.71	1268.04	92.27%	7.28%	+2.99	5-3
2014-11-09	New York Giants	W 38-17	1655.70	1444.33	82.00%	17.55%	+13.45	6-3
2014-11-16	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-24	1669.15	1613.60	49.73%	49.81%	-16.59	6-4
2014-11-23	Arizona Cardinals	W 19-3	1652.56	1672.15	54.97%	44.58%	+29.77	7-4
2014-11-27	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 19-3	1682.33	1622.02	50.41%	49.13%	+32.79	8-4
2014-12-07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-14	1715.12	1636.90	52.99%	46.56%	+24.57	9-4
2014-12-14	San Francisco 49ers	W 17-7	1739.69	1543.41	80.71%	18.84%	+9.97	10-4
2014-12-21	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 35-6	1749.66	1630.92	58.72%	40.82%	+36.71	11-4
2014-12-28	St. Louis Rams	W 20-6	1786.37	1467.11	89.28%	10.26%	+6.43	12-4
2014-09-07	Minnesota Vikings	L 6-34	1519.60	1464.43	65.20%	34.34%	-57.53	0-1
2014-09-14	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-17	1462.07	1423.62	47.27%	52.27%	+12.34	1-1
2014-09-21	Dallas Cowboys	L 31-34	1474.41	1514.45	52.04%	47.50%	-15.04	1-2
2014-10-05	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 28-34	1459.37	1561.55	28.52%	71.02%	-11.68	1-3
2014-10-13	San Francisco 49ers	L 17-31	1447.69	1623.18	33.23%	66.32%	-20.78	1-4
2014-10-19	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-26	1426.91	1657.07	26.65%	72.90%	+17.19	2-4
2014-10-26	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 7-34	1444.10	1567.48	26.10%	73.45%	-22.68	2-5
2014-11-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 13-10	1421.42	1610.62	19.47%	80.07%	+23.13	3-5
2014-11-09	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 14-31	1444.55	1645.13	18.46%	81.08%	-12.74	3-6
2014-11-16	Denver Broncos	W 22-7	1431.81	1681.24	24.54%	75.01%	+48.44	4-6
2014-11-23	@ San Diego Chargers	L 24-27	1480.25	1549.14	32.58%	66.96%	-9.44	4-7
2014-11-30	Oakland Raiders	W 52-0	1470.81	1278.96	80.31%	19.23%	+23.21	5-7
2014-12-07	@ Washington Redskins	W 24-0	1494.02	1300.73	68.55%	30.99%	+25.38	6-7
2014-12-11	Arizona Cardinals	L 6-12	1519.40	1612.76	44.40%	55.15%	-18.15	6-8
2014-12-21	New York Giants	L 27-37	1501.25	1449.69	64.73%	34.81%	-34.14	6-9
2014-12-28	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-20	1467.11	1786.37	10.26%	89.28%	-6.43	6-10
2014-09-07	Carolina Panthers	L 14-20	1439.69	1569.56	39.29%	60.26%	-16.07	0-1
2014-09-14	St. Louis Rams	L 17-19	1423.62	1462.07	52.27%	47.27%	-12.33	0-2
2014-09-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 14-56	1411.29	1444.22	37.28%	62.26%	-40.36	0-3
2014-09-28	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-24	1370.93	1553.40	20.09%	79.46%	+22.94	1-3
2014-10-05	@ New Orleans Saints	L 31-37	1393.87	1522.33	25.54%	74.00%	-10.46	1-4
2014-10-12	Baltimore Ravens	L 17-48	1383.41	1544.39	35.11%	64.44%	-32.66	1-5
2014-10-26	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-19	1350.75	1415.31	48.52%	51.03%	-19.83	1-6
2014-11-02	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-22	1330.92	1418.88	30.22%	69.33%	-11.30	1-7
2014-11-09	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-27	1319.62	1382.55	48.75%	50.79%	-25.72	1-8
2014-11-16	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-7	1293.90	1364.95	32.31%	67.24%	+50.13	2-8
2014-11-23	@ Chicago Bears	L 13-21	1344.03	1426.78	30.85%	68.69%	-14.59	2-9
2014-11-30	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-14	1329.44	1569.13	25.59%	73.96%	-4.28	2-10
2014-12-07	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-34	1325.16	1557.99	15.83%	83.71%	-10.92	2-11
2014-12-14	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-19	1314.24	1462.47	23.44%	76.11%	-5.55	2-12
2014-12-21	Green Bay Packers	L 3-20	1308.69	1632.55	17.48%	82.06%	-12.06	2-13
2014-12-28	New Orleans Saints	L 20-23	1296.63	1447.34	36.47%	63.08%	-10.55	2-14
2014-09-07	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 26-10	1469.54	1523.73	34.47%	65.08%	+43.41	1-0
2014-09-14	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-26	1512.95	1472.22	63.31%	36.24%	-42.23	1-1
2014-09-21	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-33	1470.72	1587.27	26.87%	72.68%	-22.90	1-2
2014-09-28	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-41	1447.82	1526.96	31.30%	68.25%	-25.63	1-3
2014-10-05	Cleveland Browns	L 28-29	1422.19	1396.67	61.26%	38.29%	-10.22	1-4
2014-10-12	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 16-14	1411.97	1266.75	75.80%	23.75%	+5.62	2-4
2014-10-19	@ Washington Redskins	L 17-19	1417.59	1337.21	53.30%	46.25%	-12.57	2-5
2014-10-26	Houston Texans	L 16-30	1405.02	1397.68	58.76%	40.79%	-36.67	2-6
2014-11-09	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-21	1368.35	1544.50	20.68%	78.87%	-12.94	2-7
2014-11-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-27	1355.41	1549.58	30.89%	68.66%	-8.94	2-8
2014-11-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 24-43	1346.47	1580.13	15.77%	83.78%	-11.51	2-9
2014-11-30	@ Houston Texans	L 21-45	1334.96	1437.44	28.49%	71.06%	-23.33	2-10
2014-12-07	New York Giants	L 7-36	1311.63	1396.46	45.61%	53.93%	-41.00	2-11
2014-12-14	New York Jets	L 11-16	1270.63	1314.18	51.54%	48.00%	-19.22	2-12
2014-12-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 13-21	1251.41	1249.30	42.11%	57.44%	-19.89	2-13
2014-12-28	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-27	1231.52	1566.25	16.60%	82.95%	-3.82	2-14
2014-09-07	@ Houston Texans	L 6-17	1397.17	1377.06	44.65%	54.89%	-24.72	0-1
2014-09-14	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 41-10	1372.45	1348.97	60.98%	38.56%	+35.87	1-1
2014-09-21	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 34-37	1408.32	1569.76	22.10%	77.45%	-6.41	1-2
2014-09-25	New York Giants	L 14-45	1401.91	1449.99	50.89%	48.66%	-47.27	1-3
2014-10-06	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-27	1354.64	1679.99	17.36%	82.19%	-9.19	1-4
2014-10-12	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-30	1345.45	1581.58	15.58%	83.97%	-8.24	1-5
2014-10-19	Tennessee Titans	W 19-17	1337.21	1417.59	46.25%	53.30%	+12.57	2-5
2014-10-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-17	1349.78	1618.04	13.30%	86.25%	+24.91	3-5
2014-11-02	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 26-29	1374.69	1435.14	33.66%	65.89%	-9.74	3-6
2014-11-16	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 7-27	1364.95	1293.90	67.24%	32.31%	-50.13	3-7
2014-11-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 13-17	1314.82	1618.29	11.13%	88.42%	-3.73	3-8
2014-11-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 27-49	1311.09	1580.87	13.20%	86.35%	-10.36	3-9
2014-12-07	St. Louis Rams	L 0-24	1300.73	1494.02	30.99%	68.55%	-25.38	3-10
2014-12-14	@ New York Giants	L 13-24	1275.35	1437.46	22.03%	77.51%	-12.23	3-11
2014-12-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-24	1263.12	1576.69	18.35%	81.19%	+23.45	4-11
2014-12-28	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-44	1286.57	1641.35	15.06%	84.49%	-13.10	4-12

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2015-01-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 16-27	1578.92	1530.94	48.87%	51.13%	-26.93	0-1
2015-01-03	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-17	1586.05	1641.79	34.47%	65.53%	+39.24	1-0
2015-01-10	@ New England Patriots	L 31-35	1625.29	1745.18	26.67%	73.33%	-8.86	1-1
2015-01-03	Arizona Cardinals	W 27-16	1530.94	1578.92	51.13%	48.87%	+26.92	1-0
2015-01-10	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 17-31	1557.86	1792.80	15.79%	84.21%	-9.81	1-1
2015-01-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 10-26	1575.97	1570.06	42.86%	57.14%	-28.48	0-1
2015-01-04	Detroit Lions	W 24-20	1654.45	1569.15	69.26%	30.74%	+10.21	1-0
2015-01-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 21-26	1664.66	1662.60	42.32%	57.68%	-15.72	1-1
2015-01-11	Indianapolis Colts	L 13-24	1682.94	1598.54	69.15%	30.85%	-38.09	0-1
2015-01-04	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-24	1569.15	1654.45	30.74%	69.26%	-10.21	0-1
2015-01-11	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-21	1662.60	1664.66	57.68%	42.32%	+15.72	1-0
2015-01-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 22-28	1678.32	1802.62	26.17%	73.83%	-10.65	1-1
2015-01-04	Cincinnati Bengals	W 26-10	1570.06	1575.97	57.14%	42.86%	+28.48	1-0
2015-01-11	@ Denver Broncos	W 24-13	1598.54	1682.94	30.85%	69.15%	+38.10	2-0
2015-01-18	@ New England Patriots	L 7-45	1636.64	1754.04	26.95%	73.05%	-27.59	2-1
2015-01-10	Baltimore Ravens	W 35-31	1745.18	1625.29	73.33%	26.67%	+8.86	1-0
2015-01-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 45-7	1754.04	1636.64	73.05%	26.95%	+27.59	2-0
2015-02-01	Seattle Seahawks	W 28-24	1781.63	1813.27	45.46%	54.54%	+18.12	3-0
2015-01-03	Baltimore Ravens	L 17-30	1641.79	1586.05	65.53%	34.47%	-39.25	0-1
2015-01-10	Carolina Panthers	W 31-17	1792.80	1557.86	84.21%	15.79%	+9.82	1-0
2015-01-18	Green Bay Packers	W 28-22	1802.62	1678.32	73.83%	26.17%	+10.65	2-0
2015-02-01	@ New England Patriots	L 24-28	1813.27	1781.63	54.54%	45.46%	-18.12	2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2014-11-20	13.29%	@ Oakland Raiders	1250.19	24	Kansas City Chiefs	1630.20	20
2	2014-10-27	13.30%	Washington Redskins	1349.78	20	@ Dallas Cowboys	1618.04	17
3	2014-12-28	15.35%	Buffalo Bills	1519.25	17	@ New England Patriots	1758.42	9
4	2014-12-07	16.70%	@ Oakland Raiders	1255.76	24	San Francisco 49ers	1589.23	13
5	2014-12-20	18.35%	@ Washington Redskins	1263.12	27	Philadelphia Eagles	1576.69	24
6	2014-09-14	18.68%	Chicago Bears	1458.37	28	@ San Francisco 49ers	1656.47	20
7	2014-12-28	19.35%	New York Jets	1331.62	37	@ Miami Dolphins	1522.11	24
8	2014-11-02	19.47%	St. Louis Rams	1421.42	13	@ San Francisco 49ers	1610.62	10
9	2014-09-28	20.09%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1370.93	27	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	1553.40	24
10	2014-11-09	23.92%	@ New York Jets	1327.64	20	Pittsburgh Steelers	1582.95	13
11	2014-11-16	24.54%	@ St. Louis Rams	1431.81	22	Denver Broncos	1681.24	7
12	2014-12-07	24.78%	Carolina Panthers	1393.07	41	@ New Orleans Saints	1528.53	10
13	2014-12-21	24.99%	@ Oakland Raiders	1291.63	26	Buffalo Bills	1536.83	24
14	2014-11-06	25.88%	Cleveland Browns	1430.17	24	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1555.52	3
15	2014-11-30	26.38%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1409.87	29	Arizona Cardinals	1642.38	18
16	2014-10-19	26.65%	@ St. Louis Rams	1426.91	28	Seattle Seahawks	1657.07	26
17	2014-10-12	26.77%	Dallas Cowboys	1571.76	30	@ Seattle Seahawks	1689.18	23
18	2014-09-21	28.23%	Pittsburgh Steelers	1502.95	37	@ Carolina Panthers	1607.61	19
19	2014-10-19	29.64%	Kansas City Chiefs	1547.29	23	@ San Diego Chargers	1640.07	20
20	2015-01-11 *	30.85%	Indianapolis Colts	1598.54	24	@ Denver Broncos	1682.94	13
21	2014-11-16	30.96%	Cincinnati Bengals	1499.24	27	@ New Orleans Saints	1581.11	10
22	2014-10-19	31.11%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1261.13	24	Cleveland Browns	1453.47	6
23	2014-11-16	32.30%	Houston Texans	1415.34	23	@ Cleveland Browns	1486.46	7
24	2014-11-16	32.31%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1293.90	27	@ Washington Redskins	1364.95	7
25	2014-10-05	32.97%	Buffalo Bills	1466.95	17	@ Detroit Lions	1532.81	14

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2014-12-07	69.41	Carolina Panthers	41	1393.07	24.78%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1528.53	74.76%
2	2014-09-07	57.53	Minnesota Vikings	34	1464.43	34.34%	@ St. Louis Rams	6	1519.60	65.20%
3	2014-11-06	56.29	Cleveland Browns	24	1430.17	25.88%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	3	1555.52	73.66%
4	2014-11-02	55.86	@ Miami Dolphins	37	1506.94	44.49%	San Diego Chargers	0	1599.67	55.06%
5	2014-12-28	52.63	Carolina Panthers	34	1478.31	42.87%	@ Atlanta Falcons	3	1470.79	56.68%
6	2014-09-28	50.48	Green Bay Packers	38	1458.66	33.48%	@ Chicago Bears	17	1520.47	66.06%
7	2014-09-21	50.45	Pittsburgh Steelers	37	1502.95	28.23%	@ Carolina Panthers	19	1607.61	71.31%
8	2014-11-16	50.13	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	27	1293.90	32.31%	@ Washington Redskins	7	1364.95	67.24%
9	2014-09-29	48.52	@ Kansas City Chiefs	41	1511.87	43.56%	New England Patriots	14	1611.13	55.99%
10	2014-11-16	48.44	@ St. Louis Rams	22	1431.81	24.54%	Denver Broncos	7	1681.24	75.01%
11	2014-10-19	48.41	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	24	1261.13	31.11%	Cleveland Browns	6	1453.47	68.43%
12	2014-12-28	48.21	New York Jets	37	1331.62	19.35%	@ Miami Dolphins	24	1522.11	80.19%
13	2014-12-07	47.63	Pittsburgh Steelers	42	1539.94	37.21%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	21	1573.41	62.33%
14	2014-09-25	47.27	New York Giants	45	1449.99	48.66%	@ Washington Redskins	14	1401.91	50.89%
15	2014-11-16	47.15	Cincinnati Bengals	27	1499.24	30.96%	@ New Orleans Saints	10	1581.11	68.58%
16	2014-11-16	46.69	@ Green Bay Packers	53	1578.38	50.84%	Philadelphia Eagles	20	1626.82	48.71%
17	2014-10-12	46.59	@ Cleveland Browns	31	1406.89	38.58%	Pittsburgh Steelers	10	1541.92	60.96%
18	2014-12-07	45.82	@ Oakland Raiders	24	1255.76	16.70%	San Francisco 49ers	13	1589.23	82.85%
19	2014-11-27	45.27	Philadelphia Eagles	33	1591.63	42.95%	@ Dallas Cowboys	10	1583.51	56.59%
20	2014-11-16	44.85	Houston Texans	23	1415.34	32.30%	@ Cleveland Browns	7	1486.46	67.24%
21	2014-12-21	44.36	Atlanta Falcons	30	1426.44	33.04%	@ New Orleans Saints	14	1491.70	66.50%
22	2014-09-07	43.41	Tennessee Titans	26	1469.54	34.47%	@ Kansas City Chiefs	10	1523.73	65.08%
23	2014-12-21	42.74	@ Dallas Cowboys	42	1598.61	56.27%	Indianapolis Colts	7	1608.99	43.27%
24	2014-09-21	42.60	Kansas City Chiefs	34	1469.27	40.95%	@ Miami Dolphins	15	1475.42	58.59%
25	2014-09-14	42.23	Dallas Cowboys	26	1472.22	36.24%	@ Tennessee Titans	10	1512.95	63.31%