2015 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Denver Broncos

3rd Super Bowl

Last Title: 1998

Runner-Up

Carolina Panthers

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 2003

Biggest Overachiever

Carolina Panthers

3.89 wins above expected

15 wins · 11.11 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Dallas Cowboys

3.58 wins below expected

4 wins · 7.58 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	12	4	.750	—	465	315	+150	12.17	-0.17
2	New York Jets	10	6	.625	2	387	314	+73	8.33	+1.67
3	Buffalo Bills	8	8	.500	4	379	359	+20	8.21	-0.21
4	Miami Dolphins	6	10	.375	6	310	389	-79	7.16	-1.16

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Cincinnati Bengals Division	12	4	.750	—	419	279	+140	10.10	+1.90
2	Pittsburgh Steelers Playoffs	10	6	.625	2	423	319	+104	9.10	+0.90
3	Baltimore Ravens	5	11	.312	7	328	401	-73	7.83	-2.83
4	Cleveland Browns	3	13	.188	9	278	432	-154	4.93	-1.93

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	9	7	.562	—	339	313	+26	8.18	+0.82
2	Indianapolis Colts	8	8	.500	1	333	408	-75	8.35	-0.35
3	Jacksonville Jaguars	5	11	.312	4	376	448	-72	6.02	-1.02
4	Tennessee Titans	3	13	.188	6	299	423	-124	5.45	-2.45

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Denver Broncos Division	12	4	.750	—	355	296	+59	10.10	+1.90
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	11	5	.688	1	405	287	+118	9.35	+1.65
3	Oakland Raiders	7	9	.438	5	359	399	-40	5.99	+1.01
4	San Diego Chargers	4	12	.250	8	320	398	-78	6.89	-2.89

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Washington Redskins Division	9	7	.562	—	388	379	+9	6.25	+2.75
2	Philadelphia Eagles	7	9	.438	2	377	430	-53	8.06	-1.06
3	New York Giants	6	10	.375	3	420	442	-22	7.80	-1.80
4	Dallas Cowboys	4	12	.250	5	275	374	-99	7.58	-3.58

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Minnesota Vikings Division	11	5	.688	—	365	302	+63	8.11	+2.89
2	Green Bay Packers Playoffs	10	6	.625	1	368	323	+45	10.11	-0.11
3	Detroit Lions	7	9	.438	4	358	400	-42	7.25	-0.25
4	Chicago Bears	6	10	.375	5	335	397	-62	6.03	-0.03

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Carolina Panthers Division	15	1	.938	—	500	308	+192	11.11	+3.89
2	Atlanta Falcons	8	8	.500	7	339	345	-6	8.44	-0.44
3	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	8	408	476	-68	7.02	-0.02
4	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	6	10	.375	9	342	417	-75	6.47	-0.47

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Arizona Cardinals Division	13	3	.812	—	489	313	+176	10.27	+2.73
2	Seattle Seahawks Playoffs	10	6	.625	3	423	277	+146	10.26	-0.26
3	St. Louis Rams	7	9	.438	6	280	330	-50	6.84	+0.16
4	San Francisco 49ers	5	11	.312	8	238	387	-149	6.25	-1.25

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Kansas City Chiefs 30

Houston Texans 0

Jan 9

Pittsburgh Steelers 18

Cincinnati Bengals 16

Jan 9

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 27

Kansas City Chiefs 20

Jan 16

Denver Broncos 23

Pittsburgh Steelers 16

Jan 17

Conference Championship

Denver Broncos 20

New England Patriots 18

Jan 24

NFC

Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 10

Minnesota Vikings 9

Jan 10

Green Bay Packers 35

Washington Redskins 18

Jan 10

Divisional Round

Arizona Cardinals 26

Green Bay Packers 20

Jan 16

Carolina Panthers 31

Seattle Seahawks 24

Jan 17

Conference Championship

Carolina Panthers 49

Arizona Cardinals 15

Jan 24

Super Bowl

Denver Broncos 24

Carolina Panthers 10

Feb 7

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1705	10	10.26	-0.26	54.85%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1685	15	11.11	+3.89	99.77%	4	8	10	11	12	14	16
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1671	13	10.27	+2.73	96.16%	3	7	9	10	12	13	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1658	11	9.35	+1.65	88.21%	1	6	8	9	11	12	15
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1655	12	12.17	-0.17	56.17%	5	9	11	12	13	15	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1631	10	9.10	+0.90	76.94%	1	6	8	9	10	12	15
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1630	12	10.10	+1.90	90.88%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1624	12	10.10	+1.90	90.68%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1593	11	8.11	+2.89	96.07%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1591	10	10.11	-0.11	57.93%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1534	10	8.33	+1.67	87.43%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1531	9	8.18	+0.82	75.70%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1525	8	8.21	-0.21	56.17%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1498	9	6.25	+2.75	95.77%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1489	7	7.25	-0.25	55.93%	1	4	6	7	9	10	14
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1477	8	8.44	-0.44	51.30%	1	5	7	8	10	12	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1464	7	8.06	-1.06	38.98%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
St. Louis Rams	NFC	NFC West	1458	7	6.84	+0.16	64.93%	1	4	6	7	8	10	13
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1454	8	8.35	-0.35	53.48%	1	5	7	8	10	11	15
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1452	5	7.83	-2.83	11.22%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1449	6	7.80	-1.80	25.67%	1	5	6	8	9	11	16
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1431	7	7.02	-0.02	60.52%	0	4	6	7	8	10	14
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1425	4	7.58	-3.58	5.70%	0	4	6	8	9	11	15
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1423	7	5.99	+1.01	79.88%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1406	6	7.16	-1.16	37.37%	0	4	6	7	8	10	15
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1405	6	6.03	-0.03	61.12%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1404	4	6.89	-2.89	10.76%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1380	5	6.25	-1.25	35.65%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1379	6	6.47	-0.47	51.31%	1	3	5	6	8	10	13
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1349	5	6.02	-1.02	40.23%	0	3	5	6	7	9	13
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1340	3	4.93	-1.93	21.79%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1285	3	5.45	-2.45	15.23%	0	2	4	5	7	8	12

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)
New England Patriots	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
New York Jets	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—
Miami Dolphins	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—
New England Patriots	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	4-0 (3.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (3.1 exp.)	—	—	—
New York Jets	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (0.6 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.3 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.8 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.2 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—
Indianapolis Colts	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	2-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	—	—	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	—
Tennessee Titans	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.2 exp.)	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	2-0 (0.9 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.5 exp.)	—	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.1 exp.)	—	—
Oakland Raiders	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.7 exp.)	—	—
San Diego Chargers	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
New York Giants	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
New York Giants	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.7 exp.)
Detroit Lions	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.0 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	—	3-1 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.3 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.7 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	1-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)	0-2 (1.3 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	1-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	4-0 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	4-0 (2.7 exp.)	—	4-0 (2.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	49ers	Seahawks	Rams
Arizona Cardinals	—	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.5 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	1-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (0.5 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	—	3-1 (2.4 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	—	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	—	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	—	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)
St. Louis Rams	—	1-3 (1.7 exp.)	—	—	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Carolina Panthers	15	11.11	+3.89
2	Minnesota Vikings	11	8.11	+2.89
3	Washington Redskins	9	6.25	+2.75
4	Arizona Cardinals	13	10.27	+2.73
5	Cincinnati Bengals	12	10.10	+1.90

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Dallas Cowboys	4	7.58	-3.58
2	San Diego Chargers	4	6.89	-2.89
3	Baltimore Ravens	5	7.83	-2.83
4	Tennessee Titans	3	5.45	-2.45
5	Cleveland Browns	3	4.93	-1.93

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Carolina Panthers	14	Sep 13 – Dec 20	1 in 300
2	Kansas City Chiefs	10	Oct 25 – Jan 3	1 in 125
3	Cincinnati Bengals	8	Sep 13 – Nov 5	1 in 77
4	Arizona Cardinals	9	Oct 26 – Dec 27	1 in 50
5	Atlanta Falcons	5	Sep 14 – Oct 11	1 in 36

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Cowboys	7	Sep 27 – Nov 15	1 in 188
2	Atlanta Falcons	6	Nov 1 – Dec 13	1 in 118
3	San Diego Chargers	6	Oct 12 – Nov 22	1 in 44
4	Kansas City Chiefs	5	Sep 17 – Oct 18	1 in 32
5	Philadelphia Eagles	3	Nov 15 – Nov 26	1 in 26

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	85.04%	11.60%	2.81%	0.55%
New York Jets	6.69%	35.93%	33.43%	23.95%
Buffalo Bills	6.00%	34.04%	33.61%	26.35%
Miami Dolphins	2.27%	18.43%	30.15%	49.15%

Team	1	2	3	4
Cincinnati Bengals	56.11%	29.29%	13.06%	1.54%
Pittsburgh Steelers	31.38%	40.40%	23.92%	4.30%
Baltimore Ravens	11.86%	26.81%	47.89%	13.44%
Cleveland Browns	0.65%	3.50%	15.13%	80.72%

Team	1	2	3	4
Indianapolis Colts	44.55%	33.74%	14.95%	6.76%
Houston Texans	41.27%	34.05%	17.56%	7.12%
Jacksonville Jaguars	8.65%	18.82%	36.27%	36.26%
Tennessee Titans	5.53%	13.39%	31.22%	49.86%

Team	1	2	3	4
Denver Broncos	56.96%	31.80%	9.05%	2.19%
Kansas City Chiefs	35.93%	43.49%	15.74%	4.84%
San Diego Chargers	4.98%	15.94%	43.72%	35.36%
Oakland Raiders	2.13%	8.77%	31.49%	57.61%

Team	1	2	3	4
Philadelphia Eagles	34.41%	28.11%	22.49%	14.99%
New York Giants	29.49%	27.50%	24.78%	18.23%
Dallas Cowboys	25.85%	27.33%	25.96%	20.86%
Washington Redskins	10.25%	17.06%	26.77%	45.92%

Team	1	2	3	4
Green Bay Packers	64.87%	23.38%	9.06%	2.69%
Minnesota Vikings	20.73%	37.02%	27.78%	14.47%
Detroit Lions	10.57%	26.69%	35.91%	26.83%
Chicago Bears	3.83%	12.91%	27.25%	56.01%

Team	1	2	3	4
Carolina Panthers	78.90%	15.78%	4.37%	0.95%
Atlanta Falcons	13.58%	46.53%	26.60%	13.29%
New Orleans Saints	4.76%	22.03%	36.77%	36.44%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	2.76%	15.66%	32.26%	49.32%

Team	1	2	3	4
Arizona Cardinals	47.85%	38.62%	10.86%	2.67%
Seattle Seahawks	46.30%	39.85%	11.25%	2.60%
St. Louis Rams	3.47%	12.76%	44.10%	39.67%
San Francisco 49ers	2.38%	8.77%	33.79%	55.06%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	53.48%	20.66%	10.46%	5.74%	3.65%	2.16%	1.53%	0.82%	0.58%	0.47%	0.18%	0.19%	0.04%	0.04%	—	—
Denver Broncos	12.27%	17.25%	15.66%	12.66%	10.35%	7.96%	6.62%	5.17%	3.67%	2.80%	2.17%	1.46%	0.88%	0.54%	0.40%	0.14%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.48%	18.38%	16.21%	11.75%	9.57%	8.02%	6.26%	5.13%	4.20%	3.20%	2.45%	1.48%	0.98%	0.53%	0.28%	0.08%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.54%	10.62%	12.37%	11.41%	10.87%	10.13%	9.15%	8.10%	6.16%	4.90%	3.63%	2.87%	2.02%	1.20%	0.77%	0.26%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.75%	9.68%	10.18%	9.56%	10.11%	10.09%	9.67%	7.87%	6.95%	5.72%	4.99%	3.66%	2.37%	1.74%	1.01%	0.65%
Indianapolis Colts	2.84%	4.95%	7.41%	9.73%	8.86%	9.62%	9.24%	9.26%	8.40%	7.31%	5.88%	5.61%	4.11%	2.91%	2.24%	1.63%
Houston Texans	1.88%	4.28%	6.69%	9.43%	9.12%	8.95%	8.53%	9.06%	8.90%	7.67%	6.96%	5.95%	5.01%	3.34%	2.52%	1.71%
New York Jets	2.23%	3.87%	5.29%	6.96%	8.89%	9.30%	9.09%	9.21%	8.75%	8.52%	7.03%	5.98%	5.95%	4.24%	3.10%	1.59%
Buffalo Bills	2.19%	3.86%	4.89%	6.61%	8.49%	8.95%	8.48%	8.65%	8.95%	8.36%	7.37%	6.91%	6.25%	5.13%	3.30%	1.61%
Baltimore Ravens	1.14%	3.10%	4.47%	5.45%	6.18%	7.82%	8.79%	9.00%	9.05%	9.79%	9.35%	8.13%	6.39%	5.14%	3.98%	2.22%
Miami Dolphins	0.65%	1.17%	2.15%	3.47%	4.37%	5.71%	6.00%	6.97%	8.14%	9.26%	9.08%	10.00%	11.01%	9.87%	7.15%	5.00%
San Diego Chargers	0.26%	1.23%	1.98%	2.82%	3.88%	4.30%	5.42%	6.59%	7.87%	8.88%	10.68%	10.59%	10.43%	9.35%	9.18%	6.54%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.07%	0.39%	0.90%	1.82%	2.19%	2.59%	4.24%	5.24%	5.65%	6.95%	8.61%	10.93%	11.31%	12.04%	13.55%	13.52%
Oakland Raiders	0.15%	0.40%	0.68%	1.22%	1.54%	2.09%	3.06%	4.08%	5.93%	6.68%	8.69%	10.41%	11.97%	14.55%	14.41%	14.14%
Tennessee Titans	0.05%	0.07%	0.48%	1.00%	1.32%	1.57%	2.63%	3.35%	4.33%	5.83%	7.74%	9.36%	11.03%	12.96%	16.91%	21.37%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	0.09%	0.18%	0.37%	0.61%	0.74%	1.29%	1.50%	2.47%	3.66%	5.19%	6.47%	10.25%	16.42%	21.20%	29.54%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Carolina Panthers	31.48%	23.59%	15.50%	8.84%	6.25%	4.64%	3.20%	2.20%	1.62%	1.07%	0.61%	0.40%	0.24%	0.16%	0.17%	0.03%
Arizona Cardinals	18.66%	16.81%	13.12%	12.15%	9.86%	8.06%	5.58%	4.52%	3.54%	2.42%	1.63%	1.37%	1.08%	0.69%	0.43%	0.08%
Seattle Seahawks	18.88%	15.53%	13.88%	12.07%	9.69%	8.18%	6.23%	4.65%	3.50%	2.55%	1.70%	1.15%	0.89%	0.67%	0.32%	0.11%
Green Bay Packers	16.33%	16.54%	15.60%	11.75%	9.64%	7.59%	5.55%	4.88%	3.57%	2.70%	2.11%	1.46%	1.01%	0.66%	0.42%	0.19%
Atlanta Falcons	2.93%	4.75%	6.52%	7.67%	10.33%	10.20%	9.71%	9.34%	7.72%	6.92%	5.89%	5.55%	4.64%	3.26%	2.67%	1.90%
Minnesota Vikings	2.81%	4.78%	6.51%	7.19%	7.61%	8.48%	9.08%	8.62%	8.06%	7.86%	6.72%	6.29%	5.35%	4.47%	3.55%	2.62%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.38%	4.71%	6.42%	8.60%	8.25%	8.31%	8.27%	8.09%	8.09%	7.42%	6.80%	6.10%	5.33%	4.85%	3.69%	2.69%
New York Giants	1.78%	3.07%	5.72%	7.58%	7.94%	7.94%	8.06%	8.35%	7.74%	7.12%	7.27%	6.78%	6.16%	5.70%	4.77%	4.02%
Dallas Cowboys	1.38%	3.05%	4.94%	6.37%	6.82%	7.63%	7.77%	8.29%	7.44%	8.12%	7.78%	7.06%	6.60%	6.20%	5.75%	4.80%
Detroit Lions	0.96%	2.22%	3.13%	4.32%	5.25%	5.94%	7.28%	7.69%	8.09%	8.83%	8.38%	8.16%	8.61%	7.75%	7.15%	6.24%
New Orleans Saints	0.77%	1.32%	2.15%	3.18%	4.40%	5.62%	6.50%	6.81%	7.95%	8.77%	8.77%	9.23%	9.21%	8.84%	8.89%	7.59%
St. Louis Rams	0.51%	0.83%	1.82%	2.75%	3.89%	4.27%	5.51%	6.30%	8.25%	8.45%	9.55%	9.76%	9.93%	10.55%	9.42%	8.21%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.31%	0.67%	1.28%	2.06%	2.68%	3.93%	4.88%	5.55%	6.97%	7.43%	8.60%	9.51%	10.46%	11.08%	11.58%	13.01%
Washington Redskins	0.30%	0.56%	1.38%	2.40%	2.88%	3.69%	4.81%	5.45%	6.05%	6.88%	8.33%	8.86%	9.44%	11.26%	12.29%	15.42%
San Francisco 49ers	0.33%	0.90%	1.02%	1.57%	2.30%	2.89%	3.92%	4.56%	6.10%	6.84%	8.47%	9.42%	10.76%	11.58%	13.92%	15.42%
Chicago Bears	0.19%	0.67%	1.01%	1.50%	2.21%	2.63%	3.65%	4.70%	5.31%	6.62%	7.39%	8.90%	10.29%	12.28%	14.98%	17.67%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
New England Patriots	35.24%	19.28%	11.67%	8.76%	5.82%	4.75%	3.13%	2.53%	1.99%	1.26%	1.13%	1.02%	0.77%	0.54%	0.42%	0.31%	0.37%	0.26%	0.21%	0.19%	0.07%	0.07%	0.12%	0.03%	0.03%	—	0.02%	0.01%	—	—	—	—
Carolina Panthers	15.10%	15.36%	11.85%	11.47%	7.86%	7.93%	4.69%	4.59%	3.03%	3.48%	2.46%	2.11%	1.71%	1.77%	1.22%	1.06%	0.76%	0.88%	0.65%	0.47%	0.30%	0.33%	0.20%	0.18%	0.11%	0.11%	0.10%	0.05%	0.10%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%
Arizona Cardinals	8.14%	9.55%	8.54%	8.20%	7.39%	6.88%	5.99%	5.90%	5.24%	4.46%	4.17%	3.76%	2.96%	3.10%	2.50%	2.16%	1.90%	1.58%	1.13%	1.23%	0.98%	0.81%	0.65%	0.76%	0.64%	0.46%	0.27%	0.19%	0.28%	0.09%	0.08%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	7.75%	9.45%	8.65%	8.05%	7.55%	6.81%	6.12%	5.86%	5.15%	4.68%	4.00%	4.09%	3.22%	3.08%	2.46%	2.32%	1.87%	1.65%	1.30%	1.25%	0.85%	0.86%	0.63%	0.53%	0.57%	0.31%	0.38%	0.18%	0.17%	0.13%	0.07%	0.01%
Green Bay Packers	6.50%	8.77%	8.41%	8.28%	8.27%	7.20%	5.92%	5.94%	4.75%	5.02%	3.79%	4.06%	2.98%	2.97%	2.61%	2.34%	1.97%	1.81%	1.36%	1.31%	1.18%	1.03%	0.62%	0.69%	0.59%	0.50%	0.41%	0.28%	0.22%	0.16%	0.05%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	6.61%	7.05%	8.89%	7.78%	8.14%	7.18%	6.81%	5.76%	5.50%	4.97%	4.31%	3.51%	3.26%	3.16%	2.58%	2.54%	1.71%	1.89%	1.33%	1.51%	1.15%	0.99%	0.68%	0.72%	0.45%	0.44%	0.40%	0.16%	0.20%	0.15%	0.16%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	6.44%	7.19%	8.94%	8.72%	8.15%	6.76%	6.10%	6.14%	5.09%	4.54%	4.39%	3.43%	3.57%	2.70%	2.58%	2.54%	2.02%	1.99%	1.51%	1.61%	1.16%	1.03%	0.69%	0.72%	0.55%	0.52%	0.37%	0.29%	0.09%	0.10%	0.04%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.76%	3.72%	5.20%	5.49%	6.12%	6.03%	5.89%	5.72%	5.45%	5.16%	5.44%	4.81%	4.42%	4.46%	3.92%	3.85%	2.70%	3.13%	2.66%	2.55%	1.68%	1.79%	1.28%	1.52%	0.97%	0.95%	0.64%	0.58%	0.42%	0.40%	0.24%	0.05%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.71%	3.73%	4.95%	4.63%	5.10%	4.84%	5.40%	4.69%	5.23%	4.84%	4.90%	5.03%	4.82%	4.58%	4.01%	3.85%	3.56%	3.07%	2.92%	2.57%	2.38%	2.46%	1.64%	1.89%	1.24%	1.34%	0.90%	1.02%	0.57%	0.45%	0.35%	0.33%
Indianapolis Colts	1.16%	1.82%	2.38%	2.94%	3.47%	3.63%	4.41%	4.66%	4.37%	4.50%	4.72%	4.76%	4.83%	4.17%	4.86%	4.74%	3.66%	4.30%	3.77%	3.67%	3.11%	2.98%	2.73%	2.95%	2.17%	2.00%	1.69%	1.50%	1.22%	1.15%	0.91%	0.77%
Atlanta Falcons	0.92%	1.79%	2.29%	2.59%	3.08%	3.74%	3.73%	4.26%	4.77%	4.92%	5.14%	5.27%	4.49%	4.66%	4.81%	4.31%	4.09%	3.93%	3.81%	3.40%	3.11%	3.06%	2.95%	2.63%	2.66%	2.01%	1.87%	1.58%	1.49%	1.14%	0.96%	0.54%
Houston Texans	0.75%	1.29%	2.06%	2.35%	2.97%	3.66%	4.79%	4.39%	4.04%	4.50%	4.59%	4.87%	3.96%	4.46%	4.31%	4.33%	4.19%	4.23%	4.08%	3.92%	3.45%	3.32%	3.16%	2.84%	2.60%	2.68%	1.92%	1.80%	1.41%	1.28%	1.04%	0.76%
New York Jets	0.94%	1.30%	2.15%	2.41%	2.90%	2.91%	3.81%	3.76%	4.41%	4.27%	4.34%	5.06%	5.17%	3.99%	4.36%	4.20%	4.33%	4.18%	4.43%	3.94%	3.65%	3.03%	3.16%	2.81%	2.96%	2.59%	2.07%	2.15%	1.52%	1.40%	1.08%	0.72%
Minnesota Vikings	0.76%	1.56%	2.09%	2.51%	3.09%	3.33%	3.49%	3.66%	4.11%	4.08%	4.13%	3.81%	4.58%	4.44%	4.26%	4.39%	3.89%	4.29%	4.27%	4.01%	3.59%	3.33%	3.32%	3.30%	2.84%	2.72%	2.19%	2.06%	2.12%	1.59%	1.43%	0.76%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.72%	1.49%	1.67%	2.68%	2.66%	3.81%	3.53%	4.20%	3.86%	4.51%	3.94%	4.20%	4.28%	4.08%	4.13%	4.34%	4.45%	3.62%	4.48%	3.54%	3.85%	3.24%	3.29%	3.14%	2.95%	2.79%	2.50%	2.16%	1.99%	1.65%	1.47%	0.78%
Buffalo Bills	0.90%	1.47%	2.10%	2.10%	2.75%	2.54%	3.54%	3.72%	4.28%	3.73%	4.69%	4.35%	4.46%	4.24%	4.50%	3.84%	4.62%	4.60%	4.15%	3.78%	3.77%	3.20%	3.39%	3.25%	2.90%	3.00%	2.55%	2.25%	1.84%	1.61%	1.27%	0.61%
New York Giants	0.57%	0.99%	1.25%	1.80%	2.54%	2.64%	3.22%	3.62%	3.82%	4.35%	4.22%	3.81%	3.83%	4.33%	4.07%	4.21%	4.05%	4.06%	3.77%	3.77%	3.97%	3.58%	3.88%	3.43%	3.43%	3.13%	2.88%	2.63%	2.55%	2.38%	1.84%	1.38%
Baltimore Ravens	0.46%	0.70%	1.49%	1.80%	2.36%	2.31%	3.07%	2.57%	3.40%	3.20%	4.01%	3.94%	4.37%	4.45%	4.01%	4.75%	4.68%	4.43%	4.26%	4.62%	3.95%	4.79%	3.88%	4.14%	3.21%	3.01%	2.74%	2.74%	2.24%	1.94%	1.34%	1.14%
Dallas Cowboys	0.39%	0.83%	1.25%	1.52%	1.97%	2.54%	3.03%	3.11%	3.21%	3.64%	3.79%	3.67%	3.98%	4.02%	3.89%	4.40%	3.75%	3.96%	4.19%	4.01%	4.26%	3.80%	3.53%	3.83%	3.60%	3.67%	3.15%	3.22%	3.02%	2.91%	2.24%	1.62%
Detroit Lions	0.29%	0.55%	0.79%	1.18%	1.39%	1.57%	2.17%	2.04%	2.59%	2.82%	3.15%	2.93%	3.09%	3.70%	3.99%	4.22%	4.38%	3.81%	4.48%	4.13%	4.30%	4.37%	4.17%	4.36%	4.27%	4.69%	4.18%	3.76%	3.83%	3.39%	3.00%	2.41%
Miami Dolphins	0.21%	0.41%	0.58%	0.82%	1.02%	1.36%	1.75%	1.77%	2.53%	2.22%	2.74%	2.92%	3.57%	2.92%	3.57%	3.58%	4.26%	4.05%	4.41%	4.01%	4.41%	4.44%	5.45%	4.53%	5.29%	4.59%	4.61%	4.71%	3.79%	3.90%	2.94%	2.64%
New Orleans Saints	0.18%	0.41%	0.59%	0.74%	0.94%	1.34%	1.34%	1.78%	2.18%	2.27%	2.63%	2.99%	2.80%	3.56%	3.37%	3.48%	4.29%	4.08%	4.19%	4.36%	4.84%	4.45%	4.50%	4.58%	5.00%	4.53%	4.81%	4.25%	4.84%	3.94%	3.78%	2.96%
San Diego Chargers	0.08%	0.22%	0.52%	0.70%	0.96%	1.20%	1.46%	1.46%	1.96%	1.97%	2.05%	2.40%	2.95%	2.84%	3.34%	3.18%	3.82%	4.23%	3.88%	4.28%	5.33%	4.78%	5.19%	5.15%	5.03%	5.12%	4.61%	4.88%	4.52%	4.58%	3.99%	3.32%
St. Louis Rams	0.12%	0.25%	0.41%	0.43%	0.81%	1.10%	1.35%	1.62%	1.74%	1.98%	1.92%	2.43%	2.86%	2.89%	2.81%	3.36%	4.17%	4.01%	3.93%	4.32%	4.48%	5.46%	5.01%	5.07%	4.89%	5.04%	5.42%	5.25%	4.94%	4.52%	4.17%	3.24%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.09%	0.17%	0.23%	0.34%	0.45%	0.84%	1.03%	1.13%	1.24%	1.46%	1.77%	2.05%	2.39%	2.20%	2.96%	2.79%	3.48%	3.76%	3.95%	3.86%	4.31%	4.32%	5.00%	4.56%	5.71%	5.08%	5.75%	5.60%	6.18%	5.70%	6.20%	5.40%
Washington Redskins	0.06%	0.12%	0.19%	0.36%	0.40%	0.77%	1.03%	1.15%	1.22%	1.53%	1.64%	1.71%	2.25%	2.43%	2.92%	2.75%	2.86%	2.89%	3.66%	4.00%	4.30%	4.37%	4.52%	4.58%	5.14%	4.99%	5.85%	5.72%	6.40%	6.25%	7.51%	6.43%
San Francisco 49ers	0.06%	0.18%	0.30%	0.51%	0.45%	0.45%	0.76%	0.82%	1.28%	1.20%	1.45%	1.63%	1.95%	1.98%	2.25%	2.33%	3.38%	3.02%	3.17%	3.57%	4.17%	4.61%	4.81%	5.00%	5.20%	5.48%	5.96%	6.13%	7.13%	6.93%	7.31%	6.53%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.01%	0.07%	0.17%	0.19%	0.38%	0.59%	0.67%	0.82%	1.02%	1.34%	1.23%	1.44%	1.77%	2.31%	2.64%	2.55%	2.40%	3.10%	3.19%	3.62%	4.05%	4.27%	5.16%	5.05%	5.16%	5.46%	5.94%	6.52%	6.34%	7.39%	7.19%	7.96%
Chicago Bears	0.01%	0.13%	0.21%	0.29%	0.48%	0.49%	0.71%	0.93%	0.97%	1.22%	1.14%	1.33%	1.56%	2.07%	2.18%	2.50%	2.68%	2.75%	3.15%	3.67%	3.67%	4.14%	4.76%	4.36%	5.17%	5.45%	6.35%	6.30%	7.45%	7.50%	8.53%	7.85%
Oakland Raiders	0.02%	0.14%	0.14%	0.23%	0.28%	0.39%	0.56%	0.72%	0.75%	0.90%	1.04%	1.26%	1.39%	1.89%	2.09%	1.95%	2.96%	2.76%	3.34%	3.56%	4.09%	4.47%	4.59%	5.51%	5.16%	5.84%	6.68%	7.14%	6.73%	7.48%	7.50%	8.44%
Tennessee Titans	0.03%	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.18%	0.32%	0.38%	0.43%	0.46%	0.73%	0.78%	0.90%	1.13%	1.38%	1.57%	1.97%	1.62%	2.34%	2.68%	3.27%	3.21%	3.80%	4.22%	4.57%	4.97%	5.96%	6.05%	6.69%	7.76%	8.84%	10.05%	13.61%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	—	0.01%	0.07%	0.07%	0.09%	0.12%	0.25%	0.36%	0.25%	0.30%	0.45%	0.63%	0.63%	0.81%	0.86%	1.13%	1.34%	1.69%	2.00%	2.38%	2.82%	2.82%	3.32%	4.54%	5.54%	6.74%	8.20%	8.64%	11.01%	13.24%	19.67%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	53.48%	20.39%	8.64%	2.53%	7.11%	3.37%	4.48%
Denver Broncos	12.27%	18.18%	17.58%	8.93%	9.79%	8.58%	24.67%
Cincinnati Bengals	11.48%	19.48%	17.12%	8.03%	9.60%	8.48%	25.81%
Pittsburgh Steelers	5.75%	10.17%	10.12%	5.34%	10.74%	11.33%	46.55%
Kansas City Chiefs	5.54%	11.10%	12.68%	6.61%	11.66%	11.41%	41.00%
Indianapolis Colts	2.84%	5.23%	10.83%	25.65%	2.36%	4.02%	49.07%
New York Jets	2.23%	2.46%	1.53%	0.47%	13.96%	12.57%	66.78%
Buffalo Bills	2.19%	2.11%	1.19%	0.51%	13.86%	11.93%	68.21%
Houston Texans	1.88%	4.59%	9.54%	25.26%	2.32%	3.98%	52.43%
Baltimore Ravens	1.14%	3.25%	4.61%	2.86%	6.06%	8.13%	73.95%
Miami Dolphins	0.65%	0.68%	0.71%	0.23%	6.33%	6.56%	84.84%
San Diego Chargers	0.26%	1.27%	2.13%	1.32%	3.59%	4.58%	86.85%
Oakland Raiders	0.15%	0.47%	0.70%	0.81%	1.33%	2.10%	94.44%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.07%	0.43%	1.61%	6.54%	0.52%	1.30%	89.53%
Tennessee Titans	0.05%	0.10%	0.75%	4.63%	0.34%	0.88%	93.25%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	0.09%	0.26%	0.28%	0.43%	0.78%	98.14%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Carolina Panthers	31.48%	24.67%	15.35%	7.40%	6.25%	4.70%	10.15%
Seattle Seahawks	18.88%	14.10%	9.15%	4.17%	19.88%	10.54%	23.28%
Arizona Cardinals	18.66%	15.61%	9.48%	4.10%	18.68%	10.90%	22.57%
Green Bay Packers	16.33%	17.33%	18.96%	12.25%	6.00%	6.78%	22.35%
Atlanta Falcons	2.93%	4.30%	3.93%	2.42%	12.78%	13.86%	59.78%
Minnesota Vikings	2.81%	5.01%	7.47%	5.44%	7.17%	8.76%	63.34%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.38%	5.11%	8.95%	17.97%	2.52%	5.09%	57.98%
New York Giants	1.78%	3.43%	8.27%	16.01%	2.55%	5.16%	62.80%
Dallas Cowboys	1.38%	3.31%	6.67%	14.49%	2.52%	4.76%	66.87%
Detroit Lions	0.96%	2.20%	3.74%	3.67%	4.52%	6.01%	78.90%
New Orleans Saints	0.77%	1.30%	1.49%	1.20%	4.64%	6.69%	83.91%
St. Louis Rams	0.51%	0.73%	1.35%	0.88%	4.18%	5.01%	87.34%
San Francisco 49ers	0.33%	0.83%	0.81%	0.41%	2.75%	3.03%	91.84%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.31%	0.69%	0.89%	0.87%	2.98%	4.28%	89.98%
Washington Redskins	0.30%	0.62%	2.24%	7.09%	0.89%	1.99%	86.87%
Chicago Bears	0.19%	0.76%	1.25%	1.63%	1.69%	2.44%	92.04%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
Carolina Panthers	79.84%	79.84%	51.86%	29.49%	16.56%
New England Patriots	88.26%	88.26%	54.65%	31.43%	15.28%
Seattle Seahawks	63.86%	63.86%	40.65%	24.75%	14.79%
Arizona Cardinals	63.14%	63.14%	38.20%	21.20%	11.94%
Cincinnati Bengals	57.58%	57.58%	31.14%	15.75%	7.53%
Kansas City Chiefs	43.66%	43.66%	25.22%	14.05%	7.42%
Denver Broncos	57.64%	57.64%	31.60%	16.19%	7.40%
Green Bay Packers	59.07%	59.07%	27.86%	11.84%	5.20%
Pittsburgh Steelers	38.66%	38.66%	20.27%	10.15%	4.65%
Minnesota Vikings	28.84%	24.14%	10.91%	4.66%	2.31%
Houston Texans	41.10%	26.36%	9.90%	3.61%	1.25%
New York Jets	28.53%	17.52%	7.02%	2.57%	0.93%
Buffalo Bills	27.49%	16.29%	6.01%	2.15%	0.87%
Atlanta Falcons	32.99%	19.87%	6.34%	1.80%	0.64%
Indianapolis Colts	42.86%	24.89%	7.00%	2.06%	0.61%
Philadelphia Eagles	34.53%	20.86%	6.03%	1.57%	0.50%
Baltimore Ravens	21.66%	12.12%	3.40%	1.07%	0.39%
New York Giants	31.99%	16.99%	4.50%	1.18%	0.37%
Detroit Lions	17.94%	10.34%	3.19%	0.80%	0.24%
Washington Redskins	12.21%	6.01%	1.77%	0.57%	0.20%
Dallas Cowboys	28.44%	14.00%	3.28%	0.77%	0.20%
New Orleans Saints	14.02%	6.66%	1.75%	0.49%	0.15%
St. Louis Rams	11.42%	5.51%	1.59%	0.37%	0.11%
Oakland Raiders	4.94%	2.18%	0.54%	0.17%	0.10%
San Diego Chargers	11.62%	4.62%	1.22%	0.35%	0.09%
Chicago Bears	7.01%	3.05%	0.75%	0.23%	0.08%
Miami Dolphins	13.83%	5.33%	1.10%	0.30%	0.08%
San Francisco 49ers	7.00%	3.25%	0.71%	0.16%	0.06%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9.02%	3.41%	0.61%	0.12%	0.04%
Jacksonville Jaguars	9.97%	3.08%	0.66%	0.08%	0.01%
Cleveland Browns	1.75%	0.50%	0.13%	0.07%	—
Tennessee Titans	6.60%	1.31%	0.14%	—	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.50%	0.62%	0.04%	0.95%	1.08%	1.21%	0.43%	0.61%	0.34%	0.28%	0.41%	0.21%	0.44%	0.40%	0.21%
Buffalo Bills	0.60%		1.04%	0.06%	1.31%	1.99%	2.85%	0.67%	0.76%	0.11%	0.54%	0.16%	0.12%	0.77%	0.41%	0.60%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.21%	2.29%		0.20%	2.62%	2.74%	3.03%	0.87%	2.48%	1.39%	0.99%	2.52%	0.56%	2.76%	1.36%	0.60%
Cleveland Browns	0.02%	0.03%	0.06%		0.04%	0.04%	0.04%	0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%	0.03%	0.02%
Denver Broncos	2.35%	2.15%	2.48%	0.28%		2.54%	3.53%	0.74%	3.35%	1.35%	0.76%	2.35%	0.53%	2.80%	1.25%	0.73%
Houston Texans	1.72%	2.65%	1.57%	0.09%	1.62%		1.82%	0.27%	2.00%	1.56%	0.99%	2.51%	0.35%	1.55%	0.98%	0.21%
Indianapolis Colts	1.48%	2.22%	1.22%	0.09%	1.49%	1.19%		0.41%	1.37%	1.70%	0.61%	2.20%	0.37%	1.29%	0.94%	0.24%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.17%	0.38%	0.24%	0.06%	0.18%	0.12%	0.14%		0.21%	0.30%	0.11%	0.29%	0.07%	0.16%	0.14%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.89%	1.69%	2.88%	0.18%	3.76%	3.00%	3.73%	1.06%		1.01%	1.11%	2.18%	0.28%	2.63%	0.97%	0.65%
Miami Dolphins	0.27%	0.04%	0.35%	0.03%	0.33%	0.89%	0.93%	0.24%	0.17%		0.10%	0.05%	0.06%	0.17%	0.09%	0.28%
New England Patriots	0.96%	1.29%	1.19%	0.08%	1.21%	1.65%	2.02%	0.66%	1.06%	0.84%		1.24%	0.18%	1.02%	0.57%	0.42%
New York Jets	0.59%	0.24%	1.19%	0.06%	1.20%	2.46%	2.70%	0.81%	0.86%	0.06%	0.64%		0.19%	0.69%	0.40%	0.74%
Oakland Raiders	0.12%	0.07%	0.16%	0.02%	0.14%	0.16%	0.25%	0.15%	0.12%	0.04%	0.03%	0.07%		0.12%	0.02%	0.09%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.25%	1.59%	3.25%	0.13%	2.42%	2.81%	3.19%	0.97%	2.07%	0.89%	0.89%	1.35%	0.42%		0.92%	0.59%
San Diego Chargers	0.23%	0.22%	0.27%	0.03%	0.34%	0.48%	0.54%	0.08%	0.16%	0.10%	0.14%	0.14%	0.02%	0.27%		0.07%
Tennessee Titans	0.07%	0.14%	0.09%	0.01%	0.08%	0.06%	0.06%	0.02%	0.08%	0.13%	0.05%	0.22%		0.09%	0.06%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		2.28%	1.70%	0.87%	3.34%	1.62%	3.45%	1.88%	0.95%	3.48%	3.71%	0.62%	2.35%	0.82%	0.61%	1.19%
Atlanta Falcons	0.79%		0.98%	0.30%	1.72%	0.56%	1.61%	0.70%	0.23%	1.86%	2.03%	0.12%	0.65%	0.30%	0.16%	0.63%
Carolina Panthers	2.12%	3.05%		0.48%	1.77%	1.40%	1.92%	1.68%	1.52%	2.18%	2.09%	0.65%	1.90%	0.91%	1.16%	0.86%
Chicago Bears	0.15%	0.19%	0.14%		0.26%	0.10%	0.18%	0.15%	0.12%	0.17%	0.17%	0.04%	0.17%	0.10%	0.10%	0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	0.72%	1.35%	0.45%	0.26%		0.57%	0.75%	0.64%	0.62%	0.87%	0.89%	0.43%	0.63%	0.53%	0.42%	0.18%
Detroit Lions	0.52%	0.86%	0.54%	0.10%	0.65%		0.85%	0.28%	0.29%	0.91%	0.80%	0.18%	0.49%	0.21%	0.25%	0.25%
Green Bay Packers	2.26%	3.42%	1.13%	0.73%	2.07%	1.69%		2.44%	1.67%	1.93%	2.08%	0.89%	2.01%	1.27%	1.02%	0.80%
Minnesota Vikings	1.29%	1.66%	0.95%	0.28%	1.61%	0.60%	2.49%		0.73%	1.71%	1.82%	0.42%	1.22%	0.48%	0.45%	0.61%
New Orleans Saints	0.27%	0.23%	0.42%	0.08%	0.60%	0.21%	0.58%	0.20%		0.62%	0.76%	0.09%	0.22%	0.12%	0.05%	0.14%
New York Giants	1.11%	1.96%	0.50%	0.34%	0.85%	0.82%	0.87%	0.65%	0.84%		1.13%	0.31%	0.96%	0.64%	0.56%	0.24%
Philadelphia Eagles	1.27%	2.07%	0.57%	0.31%	1.21%	0.91%	0.78%	0.82%	0.75%	1.30%		0.47%	1.29%	0.60%	0.72%	0.30%
San Francisco 49ers	0.11%	0.12%	0.08%	0.04%	0.34%	0.14%	0.29%	0.13%	0.09%	0.25%	0.22%		0.07%	0.02%	0.05%	0.14%
Seattle Seahawks	2.75%	2.06%	2.03%	0.80%	3.57%	1.56%	3.73%	2.17%	1.13%	3.77%	3.98%	0.40%		0.79%	0.75%	1.39%
St. Louis Rams	0.22%	0.31%	0.19%	0.13%	0.56%	0.21%	0.48%	0.24%	0.10%	0.53%	0.68%	0.03%	0.25%		0.11%	0.23%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.15%	0.11%	0.17%	0.04%	0.32%	0.11%	0.30%	0.14%	0.04%	0.31%	0.40%	0.08%	0.08%	0.06%		0.10%
Washington Redskins	0.56%	0.68%	0.16%	0.15%	0.26%	0.26%	0.30%	0.40%	0.35%	0.32%	0.40%	0.18%	0.57%	0.30%	0.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.10%	0.37%		0.66%	0.29%	0.23%	0.04%	0.40%	0.09%	0.85%	0.10%	0.01%	0.16%	0.10%
Buffalo Bills	0.18%		0.83%	0.04%	0.80%	0.21%	0.39%	0.02%	0.32%	0.04%	2.38%	0.19%	0.05%	0.49%	0.07%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.03%	1.24%		0.04%	6.56%	2.80%	3.13%	0.40%	4.15%	0.63%	5.53%	1.67%	0.26%	2.82%	0.66%	0.22%
Cleveland Browns	0.01%		0.01%		0.01%	0.01%				0.01%	0.05%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%
Denver Broncos	1.65%	1.58%	6.07%	0.08%		3.23%	3.30%	0.42%	2.58%	0.73%	5.94%	1.64%	0.19%	3.69%	0.33%	0.17%
Houston Texans	0.54%	0.25%	1.71%		1.71%		0.35%	0.03%	0.96%	0.12%	2.60%	0.26%	0.13%	1.04%	0.19%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.46%	0.28%	1.10%	0.02%	1.29%	0.19%		0.01%	0.64%	0.09%	1.82%	0.28%	0.09%	0.61%	0.12%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.02%	0.11%		0.17%	0.02%	0.02%		0.05%	0.02%	0.17%	0.03%		0.04%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.05%	0.88%	5.25%	0.08%	3.38%	1.83%	2.32%	0.22%		0.34%	5.92%	1.01%	0.05%	2.63%	0.16%	0.10%
Miami Dolphins	0.08%	0.06%	0.12%		0.12%	0.02%	0.08%		0.10%		0.39%	0.02%	0.01%	0.09%	0.01%
New England Patriots	2.85%	4.78%	6.91%	0.09%	6.83%	5.64%	5.65%	0.98%	6.22%	1.74%		4.41%	0.73%	6.19%	1.09%	0.54%
New York Jets	0.28%	0.25%	0.93%		0.99%	0.32%	0.54%	0.05%	0.54%	0.06%	2.42%		0.03%	0.47%	0.10%	0.04%
Oakland Raiders	0.04%	0.04%	0.10%		0.03%	0.05%	0.04%		0.02%	0.03%	0.16%			0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.48%	0.79%	2.69%	0.01%	3.36%	1.76%	1.70%	0.24%	2.43%	0.32%	4.95%	0.84%	0.08%		0.54%	0.08%
San Diego Chargers	0.05%	0.01%	0.22%	0.01%	0.10%	0.09%	0.14%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.37%	0.04%		0.13%		0.01%
Tennessee Titans	0.02%		0.02%		0.03%						0.06%				0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		2.68%	6.44%	0.44%	1.84%	1.31%	6.69%	2.79%	1.04%	2.09%	2.71%	0.42%	7.80%	0.77%	0.40%	0.78%
Atlanta Falcons	0.77%		1.45%	0.08%	0.36%	0.30%	1.10%	0.27%	0.09%	0.38%	0.36%	0.09%	0.80%	0.12%	0.07%	0.10%
Carolina Panthers	7.11%	4.20%		0.70%	3.18%	2.27%	9.32%	4.51%	1.37%	3.88%	4.68%	0.75%	6.46%	1.24%	0.76%	1.43%
Chicago Bears	0.02%	0.03%	0.15%		0.06%	0.02%	0.10%	0.03%	0.04%	0.04%	0.07%	0.01%	0.14%	0.02%	0.01%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.45%	0.16%	0.66%	0.05%		0.12%	0.82%	0.18%	0.10%	0.10%	0.03%	0.10%	0.38%	0.09%	0.02%	0.02%
Detroit Lions	0.47%	0.20%	0.63%		0.24%		0.48%	0.08%	0.06%	0.24%	0.31%	0.04%	0.32%	0.02%	0.05%	0.05%
Green Bay Packers	4.18%	2.12%	5.45%	0.23%	1.74%	0.84%		1.55%	0.83%	2.11%	2.57%	0.44%	3.88%	0.66%	0.56%	0.70%
Minnesota Vikings	1.45%	0.58%	2.43%	0.06%	0.58%	0.13%	1.83%		0.12%	0.75%	0.81%	0.15%	1.55%	0.18%	0.10%	0.19%
New Orleans Saints	0.23%	0.06%	0.38%	0.02%	0.14%	0.03%	0.30%	0.15%		0.11%	0.12%	0.03%	0.13%	0.02%	0.01%	0.02%
New York Giants	0.60%	0.33%	1.17%	0.10%	0.08%	0.19%	0.86%	0.29%	0.12%		0.12%	0.04%	0.46%	0.07%	0.05%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.84%	0.48%	1.17%	0.12%	0.17%	0.18%	1.25%	0.40%	0.15%	0.08%		0.11%	0.86%	0.09%	0.12%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	0.07%	0.04%	0.15%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.20%	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%		0.07%		0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	8.15%	2.39%	7.16%	0.42%	2.13%	1.57%	7.26%	2.76%	0.93%	2.51%	2.90%	0.33%		0.62%	0.62%	0.90%
St. Louis Rams	0.19%	0.12%	0.23%	0.04%	0.10%	0.07%	0.43%	0.08%	0.01%	0.07%	0.08%	0.01%	0.15%			0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.11%	0.01%	0.08%	0.01%	0.06%	0.02%	0.20%			0.06%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%
Washington Redskins	0.30%	0.13%	0.43%	0.02%	0.01%	0.09%	0.37%	0.10%	0.04%	0.04%	0.02%	0.01%	0.18%	0.01%	0.02%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.06%	0.10%		0.22%	0.08%	0.11%		0.12%		0.23%	0.13%		0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.12%		0.40%	0.01%	0.38%	0.13%	0.12%	0.03%	0.19%	0.01%	0.47%	0.07%	0.02%	0.13%	0.06%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.24%	0.72%			2.62%	1.03%	0.92%	0.12%	1.66%	0.14%	6.09%	0.73%	0.04%	1.24%	0.18%	0.02%
Cleveland Browns			0.02%				0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	0.28%	0.85%	2.76%	0.03%		0.99%	0.79%	0.10%	1.70%	0.26%	5.60%	0.83%	0.07%	1.82%	0.10%	0.01%
Houston Texans	0.08%	0.10%	0.60%		0.69%		0.07%		0.37%	0.03%	1.15%	0.09%	0.04%	0.38%	0.01%
Indianapolis Colts	0.04%	0.08%	0.37%		0.21%	0.03%			0.27%	0.02%	0.58%	0.17%	0.02%	0.24%	0.03%
Jacksonville Jaguars			0.02%		0.01%						0.03%			0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.30%	0.77%	1.99%	0.01%	1.89%	0.99%	0.76%	0.06%		0.12%	4.84%	0.75%	0.01%	1.43%	0.13%
Miami Dolphins		0.01%	0.04%		0.07%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%		0.05%	0.02%		0.05%
New England Patriots	0.96%	0.83%	7.34%	0.01%	7.24%	2.08%	1.57%	0.17%	5.25%	0.17%		0.98%	0.11%	4.38%	0.30%	0.04%
New York Jets	0.15%	0.05%	0.45%		0.36%	0.10%	0.09%	0.01%	0.35%		0.61%		0.03%	0.36%		0.01%
Oakland Raiders		0.01%	0.05%		0.01%				0.01%		0.06%	0.02%		0.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.15%	0.36%	1.21%		1.63%	0.84%	0.46%	0.06%	1.23%	0.04%	3.41%	0.63%	0.03%		0.06%	0.04%
San Diego Chargers	0.01%	0.02%	0.04%		0.08%	0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%	0.09%	0.02%		0.04%		0.01%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		1.10%	7.20%	0.16%	0.63%	0.52%	3.53%	1.64%	0.32%	0.83%	1.22%	0.10%	3.45%	0.17%	0.08%	0.25%
Atlanta Falcons	0.38%		0.35%	0.05%	0.03%	0.05%	0.28%	0.12%		0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.37%	0.05%	0.02%	0.03%
Carolina Panthers	7.78%	0.95%		0.11%	0.72%	0.75%	6.29%	1.84%	0.28%	0.84%	1.23%	0.17%	7.58%	0.44%	0.09%	0.42%
Chicago Bears	0.04%		0.06%		0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%	0.01%		0.02%		0.03%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	0.20%	0.05%	0.18%	0.01%		0.03%	0.10%	0.06%	0.03%	0.02%			0.07%	0.02%
Detroit Lions	0.11%	0.03%	0.30%		0.04%		0.05%	0.02%	0.01%	0.04%	0.08%		0.09%	0.01%	0.02%
Green Bay Packers	2.75%	0.72%	3.39%	0.04%	0.37%	0.17%		0.45%	0.13%	0.37%	0.44%	0.11%	2.55%	0.16%	0.05%	0.14%
Minnesota Vikings	0.94%	0.26%	1.35%		0.08%	0.07%	0.46%		0.04%	0.09%	0.27%	0.03%	0.87%	0.10%	0.03%	0.07%
New Orleans Saints	0.11%		0.09%		0.01%	0.02%	0.08%	0.02%		0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.09%
New York Giants	0.21%	0.05%	0.29%			0.01%	0.18%	0.04%	0.01%		0.02%	0.03%	0.27%	0.05%	0.02%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.28%	0.09%	0.46%			0.03%	0.18%	0.12%	0.02%	0.02%			0.32%	0.03%	0.02%
San Francisco 49ers	0.01%		0.06%	0.01%			0.02%	0.02%		0.02%			0.02%
Seattle Seahawks	4.03%	1.25%	8.35%	0.14%	0.59%	0.71%	4.62%	1.84%	0.39%	1.03%	1.10%	0.07%		0.18%	0.16%	0.29%
St. Louis Rams	0.03%	0.03%	0.15%		0.03%		0.06%	0.01%	0.01%		0.03%		0.02%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.03%		0.02%			0.01%	0.01%	0.01%		0.01%			0.03%
Washington Redskins	0.10%	0.01%	0.12%			0.01%	0.13%	0.05%	0.01%				0.14%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	St. Louis Rams	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.15%	0.29%			1.89%	0.01%		2.10%			0.60%	0.32%	0.02%	1.41%	0.08%		3.45%			0.36%	0.01%		1.19%	0.06%
Atlanta Falcons			0.01%	0.03%			0.14%			0.10%			0.06%	0.01%		0.06%			0.19%			0.01%	0.02%		0.01%
Baltimore Ravens	0.11%	0.02%			0.10%				0.01%		0.01%	0.07%						0.01%			0.01%			0.01%				0.04%
Buffalo Bills	0.15%	0.01%			0.27%	0.01%					0.01%	0.15%						0.07%						0.04%				0.16%
Carolina Panthers			0.24%	0.33%			2.33%	0.03%		2.68%			0.72%	0.40%	0.04%	2.10%	0.02%		5.25%			0.48%			1.87%	0.07%
Chicago Bears							0.03%			0.01%						0.01%			0.02%						0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.50%	0.21%			1.99%	0.01%			0.08%		0.13%	1.15%						0.40%		0.06%	0.15%			0.12%				1.59%	0.07%		0.07%
Dallas Cowboys							0.03%			0.02%			0.03%			0.04%			0.04%						0.04%
Denver Broncos	1.38%	0.13%			2.23%	0.04%			0.07%		0.09%	1.01%						0.34%		0.07%	0.11%			0.16%				1.68%	0.05%	0.02%	0.02%
Detroit Lions				0.01%			0.06%			0.02%				0.01%		0.02%			0.08%			0.02%			0.02%
Green Bay Packers			0.08%	0.14%			0.69%	0.01%		0.79%			0.20%	0.19%		0.59%	0.05%		1.70%			0.26%			0.46%	0.04%
Houston Texans	0.22%	0.08%			0.32%	0.01%			0.04%		0.01%	0.17%						0.06%		0.02%	0.07%			0.02%				0.23%
Indianapolis Colts	0.13%	0.01%			0.14%						0.02%	0.13%						0.02%			0.01%			0.03%				0.12%
Jacksonville Jaguars					0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.57%	0.12%			2.08%	0.02%			0.06%		0.07%	0.98%						0.36%		0.05%	0.13%			0.20%			0.01%	1.71%	0.04%		0.02%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%				0.02%						0.01%							0.01%										0.03%
Minnesota Vikings			0.02%	0.04%			0.35%			0.36%			0.07%	0.09%		0.27%			0.80%			0.09%	0.01%		0.21%
New England Patriots	3.15%	0.35%			4.12%	0.04%			0.21%		0.17%	2.22%						0.77%		0.07%	0.27%			0.36%			0.07%	3.17%	0.08%	0.04%	0.19%
New Orleans Saints				0.01%			0.03%			0.03%						0.03%			0.04%			0.01%
New York Giants				0.01%			0.03%			0.07%			0.03%	0.01%		0.08%	0.01%		0.06%			0.02%			0.05%
New York Jets	0.16%	0.01%			0.36%						0.02%	0.13%						0.06%		0.01%							0.01%	0.17%
Oakland Raiders	0.01%	0.01%			0.01%							0.02%																0.05%
Philadelphia Eagles				0.03%			0.12%			0.10%			0.02%			0.06%	0.01%		0.12%			0.01%			0.03%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.84%	0.20%			1.24%	0.02%			0.10%		0.02%	0.60%						0.25%		0.06%	0.06%			0.13%			0.01%	1.01%	0.02%	0.02%	0.07%
San Diego Chargers	0.03%	0.01%			0.04%							0.01%
San Francisco 49ers							0.02%			0.01%				0.01%					0.02%
Seattle Seahawks			0.18%	0.37%			2.46%	0.02%		2.44%			0.60%	0.41%	0.01%	1.91%	0.05%		4.28%			0.38%	0.03%		1.57%	0.08%
St. Louis Rams							0.02%			0.04%			0.01%			0.01%			0.02%						0.01%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers				0.01%						0.01%									0.02%
Washington Redskins				0.01%			0.02%			0.01%			0.02%			0.04%			0.06%						0.03%	0.01%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
Carolina Panthers	100.00%	56.47%	33.95%	19.35%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Arizona Cardinals	100.00%	64.24%	29.70%	16.18%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
New England Patriots	100.00%	55.79%	28.60%	13.15%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Denver Broncos	100.00%	52.29%	26.48%	11.34%	Won Super Bowl
Seattle Seahawks	60.71%	31.04%	18.29%	11.21%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	63.24%	31.73%	16.54%	8.46%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Cincinnati Bengals	53.02%	23.76%	12.32%	5.32%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Pittsburgh Steelers	46.98%	23.37%	11.08%	5.10%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	58.60%	21.72%	8.42%	3.88%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Minnesota Vikings	39.29%	15.81%	6.85%	3.33%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Texans	36.76%	13.06%	4.98%	1.75%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Washington Redskins	41.40%	10.72%	2.79%	0.93%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals				53.02%
Houston Texans			36.76%
Kansas City Chiefs		63.24%
Pittsburgh Steelers	46.98%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Green Bay Packers				58.60%
Minnesota Vikings			39.29%
Seattle Seahawks		60.71%
Washington Redskins	41.40%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals					23.76%
Denver Broncos			12.51%	16.17%		23.61%
Houston Texans		7.01%			6.05%
Kansas City Chiefs		17.33%			14.40%
New England Patriots	29.26%		11.19%	15.34%
Pittsburgh Steelers		23.37%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Carolina Panthers	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			22.33%	23.48%		18.43%
Carolina Panthers			14.55%		29.67%	12.25%
Green Bay Packers	13.30%	8.42%
Minnesota Vikings	15.81%
Seattle Seahawks		31.04%
Washington Redskins	6.65%	4.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers
Cincinnati Bengals		6.26%	1.98%	4.08%
Denver Broncos	6.32%		1.83%	3.27%	15.06%
Houston Texans	1.20%	1.34%			1.23%	1.21%
Kansas City Chiefs	3.92%	4.09%			4.70%	3.83%
New England Patriots		14.12%	2.60%	4.63%		7.25%
Pittsburgh Steelers			1.67%	3.21%	6.20%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Carolina Panthers	Green Bay Packers	Minnesota Vikings	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		15.71%	3.12%		9.13%	1.74%
Carolina Panthers	20.54%		4.01%	7.02%		2.38%
Green Bay Packers	1.89%	2.38%		1.39%	2.76%
Minnesota Vikings		3.65%	2.02%			1.18%
Seattle Seahawks	11.51%		4.15%			2.63%
Washington Redskins	0.60%	0.78%		0.55%	0.86%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Carolina Panthers	Cincinnati Bengals	Denver Broncos	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			2.04%	4.45%		0.92%	2.52%		4.62%	1.63%
Carolina Panthers			2.53%	5.57%		1.10%	2.83%		5.21%	2.11%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.53%	1.68%			0.64%			0.39%			0.86%	0.22%
Denver Broncos	3.24%	3.68%			1.31%			0.68%			1.96%	0.47%
Green Bay Packers			0.44%	1.08%		0.23%	0.54%		1.08%	0.51%
Houston Texans	0.53%	0.65%			0.13%			0.12%			0.21%	0.11%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.66%	2.94%			0.66%			0.57%			1.24%	0.39%
Minnesota Vikings			0.47%	0.88%		0.12%	0.45%		0.97%	0.44%
New England Patriots	4.08%	4.06%			1.33%			1.30%			2.01%	0.37%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.48%	1.59%			0.47%			0.46%			0.80%	0.30%
Seattle Seahawks			1.42%	2.92%		0.77%	1.62%		3.33%	1.15%
Washington Redskins			0.10%	0.24%		0.09%	0.12%		0.24%	0.14%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

Carolina Panthers 19.35% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

52.54%

Win Prob

48.87%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

60.50%

Win Prob

56.66%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

28.79%

Win Prob

60.22%

Arizona Cardinals 16.18% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

36.55%

Win Prob

59.76%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

52.90%

Win Prob

43.34%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

28.55%

Win Prob

53.10%

New England Patriots 13.15% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

52.45%

Win Prob

55.19%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

49.37%

Win Prob

48.39%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

31.03%

Win Prob

46.90%

Denver Broncos 11.34% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

45.15%

Win Prob

50.26%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

56.87%

Win Prob

51.61%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

32.45%

Win Prob

39.78%

Seattle Seahawks 11.21% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Minnesota Vikings

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

60.71%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

51.13%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

62.93%

Win Prob

55.77%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

29.71%

Win Prob

62.36%

Kansas City Chiefs 8.46% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

63.24%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

54.62%

Win Prob

51.73%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

28.42%

Win Prob

50.38%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

34.75%

Win Prob

50.95%

Cincinnati Bengals 5.32% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

53.02%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

44.81%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

50.81%

Win Prob

49.76%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

31.58%

Win Prob

39.90%

Pittsburgh Steelers 5.10% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

46.98%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

49.74%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

55.96%

Win Prob

46.10%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

31.18%

Win Prob

42.97%

Green Bay Packers 3.88% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Washington Redskins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

58.60%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

61.23%

Win Prob

37.33%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

32.78%

Win Prob

39.94%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

27.84%

Win Prob

45.19%

Minnesota Vikings 3.33% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

39.29%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

40.24%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

53.28%

Win Prob

34.21%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

29.13%

Win Prob

42.73%

Houston Texans 1.75% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

36.76%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

53.68%

Win Prob

35.91%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

26.91%

Win Prob

42.27%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Carolina Panthers

Matchup

37.14%

Win Prob

37.14%

Washington Redskins 0.93% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

41.40%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Arizona Cardinals

Matchup

62.03%

Win Prob

26.52%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

30.82%

Win Prob

24.64%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Denver Broncos

Matchup

25.81%

Win Prob

33.80%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2015-09-13	New Orleans Saints	W 31-19	1518.01	1482.02	58.93%	40.82%	+18.93	1-0
2015-09-20	@ Chicago Bears	W 48-23	1536.94	1415.60	63.03%	36.72%	+24.59	2-0
2015-09-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 47-7	1561.53	1503.69	61.93%	37.82%	+32.03	3-0
2015-10-04	St. Louis Rams	L 22-24	1593.56	1455.05	72.09%	27.66%	-13.64	3-1
2015-10-11	@ Detroit Lions	W 42-17	1579.92	1461.33	62.67%	37.08%	+24.84	4-1
2015-10-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-25	1604.76	1570.82	50.78%	48.97%	-23.55	4-2
2015-10-26	Baltimore Ravens	W 26-18	1581.21	1491.21	66.17%	33.58%	+12.72	5-2
2015-11-01	@ Cleveland Browns	W 34-20	1593.93	1394.24	72.77%	26.98%	+13.53	6-2
2015-11-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 39-32	1607.46	1614.15	44.95%	54.80%	+19.40	7-2
2015-11-22	Cincinnati Bengals	W 34-31	1626.86	1624.61	54.16%	45.59%	+10.57	8-2
2015-11-29	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 19-13	1637.43	1412.90	75.49%	24.26%	+7.96	9-2
2015-12-06	@ St. Louis Rams	W 27-3	1645.39	1425.07	75.04%	24.71%	+16.22	10-2
2015-12-10	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1661.61	1529.40	71.36%	28.39%	+6.59	11-2
2015-12-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 40-17	1668.20	1494.14	69.76%	29.99%	+19.27	12-2
2015-12-27	Green Bay Packers	W 38-8	1687.47	1640.52	60.44%	39.31%	+28.83	13-2
2016-01-03	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-36	1716.30	1659.24	61.82%	37.93%	-45.30	13-3
2015-09-14	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-24	1466.80	1532.45	44.43%	55.32%	+10.46	1-0
2015-09-20	@ New York Giants	W 24-20	1477.26	1479.96	45.52%	54.23%	+14.52	2-0
2015-09-27	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 39-28	1491.78	1585.24	33.13%	66.62%	+29.55	3-0
2015-10-04	Houston Texans	W 48-21	1521.33	1488.77	58.45%	41.30%	+28.74	4-0
2015-10-11	Washington Redskins	W 25-19	1550.07	1414.89	71.70%	28.04%	+9.20	5-0
2015-10-15	@ New Orleans Saints	L 21-31	1559.27	1427.39	64.43%	35.32%	-27.26	5-1
2015-10-25	@ Tennessee Titans	W 10-7	1532.01	1357.97	69.76%	29.99%	+6.96	6-1
2015-11-01	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 20-23	1538.97	1381.24	74.25%	25.50%	-17.20	6-2
2015-11-08	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-17	1521.77	1417.81	60.68%	39.07%	-8.12	6-3
2015-11-22	Indianapolis Colts	L 21-24	1513.65	1501.48	55.58%	44.17%	-12.88	6-4
2015-11-29	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-20	1500.77	1542.73	47.81%	51.94%	-20.24	6-5
2015-12-06	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 19-23	1480.53	1429.14	53.29%	46.46%	-14.26	6-6
2015-12-13	@ Carolina Panthers	L 0-38	1466.27	1679.85	19.88%	79.87%	-16.43	6-7
2015-12-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 23-17	1449.84	1401.16	52.90%	46.85%	+15.36	7-7
2015-12-27	Carolina Panthers	W 20-13	1465.20	1702.67	22.92%	76.83%	+27.20	8-7
2016-01-03	New Orleans Saints	L 17-20	1492.40	1416.55	64.33%	35.42%	-14.91	8-8
2015-09-13	@ Denver Broncos	L 13-19	1555.13	1559.83	45.24%	54.51%	-14.84	0-1
2015-09-20	@ Oakland Raiders	L 33-37	1540.29	1387.12	67.18%	32.57%	-17.97	0-2
2015-09-27	Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-28	1522.32	1553.67	49.34%	50.41%	-13.21	0-3
2015-10-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-20	1509.11	1573.60	36.93%	62.82%	+14.56	1-3
2015-10-11	Cleveland Browns	L 30-33	1523.67	1407.24	69.48%	30.27%	-16.10	1-4
2015-10-18	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 20-25	1507.57	1446.33	54.70%	45.05%	-16.36	1-5
2015-10-26	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 18-26	1491.21	1581.21	33.58%	66.17%	-12.72	1-6
2015-11-01	San Diego Chargers	W 29-26	1478.49	1446.40	58.38%	41.37%	+9.59	2-6
2015-11-15	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-22	1488.08	1348.81	72.18%	27.57%	-13.66	2-7
2015-11-22	St. Louis Rams	W 16-13	1474.42	1450.58	57.23%	42.52%	+9.86	3-7
2015-11-30	@ Cleveland Browns	W 33-27	1484.28	1357.04	63.82%	35.93%	+11.79	4-7
2015-12-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 13-15	1496.07	1416.80	57.25%	42.50%	-10.83	4-8
2015-12-13	Seattle Seahawks	L 6-35	1485.24	1657.87	30.16%	69.59%	-21.76	4-9
2015-12-20	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-34	1463.48	1629.90	30.92%	68.83%	-18.52	4-10
2015-12-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 20-17	1444.96	1637.21	27.84%	71.91%	+16.66	5-10
2016-01-03	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 16-24	1461.62	1614.01	26.09%	73.66%	-9.89	5-11
2015-09-13	Indianapolis Colts	W 27-14	1514.79	1545.13	49.49%	50.26%	+24.26	1-0
2015-09-20	New England Patriots	L 32-40	1539.05	1643.94	38.94%	60.81%	-14.75	1-1
2015-09-27	@ Miami Dolphins	W 41-14	1524.30	1488.86	51.00%	48.75%	+33.90	2-1
2015-10-04	New York Giants	L 10-24	1558.20	1482.86	64.27%	35.48%	-32.16	2-2
2015-10-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 14-13	1526.04	1396.69	64.10%	35.65%	+4.77	3-2
2015-10-18	Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-34	1530.81	1598.90	44.08%	55.67%	-21.28	3-3
2015-10-25	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 31-34	1509.53	1340.65	72.41%	27.34%	-16.77	3-4
2015-11-08	Miami Dolphins	W 33-17	1492.76	1478.70	55.84%	43.91%	+23.51	4-4
2015-11-12	@ New York Jets	W 22-17	1516.27	1495.08	48.95%	50.80%	+15.20	5-4
2015-11-23	@ New England Patriots	L 13-20	1531.47	1736.29	20.70%	79.05%	-7.34	5-5
2015-11-29	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 22-30	1524.13	1594.90	36.09%	63.66%	-13.67	5-6
2015-12-06	Houston Texans	W 30-21	1510.46	1511.21	53.73%	46.02%	+18.48	6-6
2015-12-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 20-23	1528.94	1481.94	52.66%	47.09%	-12.21	6-7
2015-12-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 25-35	1516.73	1439.34	56.98%	42.76%	-24.11	6-8
2015-12-27	Dallas Cowboys	W 16-6	1492.62	1448.30	60.08%	39.67%	+16.80	7-8
2016-01-03	New York Jets	W 22-17	1509.42	1549.92	48.02%	51.73%	+15.48	8-8
2015-09-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-9	1519.46	1396.54	63.24%	36.51%	+16.21	1-0
2015-09-20	Houston Texans	W 24-17	1535.67	1487.44	60.62%	39.13%	+13.87	2-0
2015-09-27	New Orleans Saints	W 27-22	1549.54	1439.88	68.65%	31.10%	+9.31	3-0
2015-10-04	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-23	1558.85	1385.94	69.62%	30.13%	+15.10	4-0
2015-10-18	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 27-23	1573.95	1604.78	41.54%	58.21%	+15.58	5-0
2015-10-25	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-16	1589.53	1557.34	58.40%	41.35%	+18.36	6-0
2015-11-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 29-26	1607.89	1492.30	69.37%	30.38%	+7.05	7-0
2015-11-08	Green Bay Packers	W 37-29	1614.94	1628.84	51.85%	47.90%	+18.14	8-0
2015-11-15	@ Tennessee Titans	W 27-10	1633.08	1358.03	80.43%	19.32%	+10.67	9-0
2015-11-22	Washington Redskins	W 44-16	1643.75	1432.86	79.62%	20.13%	+14.28	10-0
2015-11-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 33-14	1658.03	1481.81	70.02%	29.73%	+17.36	11-0
2015-12-06	@ New Orleans Saints	W 41-38	1675.39	1398.92	80.56%	19.19%	+4.46	12-0
2015-12-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 38-0	1679.85	1466.27	79.87%	19.88%	+16.43	13-0
2015-12-20	@ New York Giants	W 38-35	1696.28	1501.69	72.18%	27.57%	+6.39	14-0
2015-12-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-20	1702.67	1465.20	76.83%	22.92%	-27.19	14-1
2016-01-03	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 38-10	1675.48	1388.54	85.76%	13.99%	+9.93	15-1
2015-09-13	Green Bay Packers	L 23-31	1428.48	1570.57	33.99%	65.76%	-12.88	0-1
2015-09-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 23-48	1415.60	1536.94	36.72%	63.03%	-24.58	0-2
2015-09-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 0-26	1391.02	1595.94	20.69%	79.06%	-14.14	0-3
2015-10-04	Oakland Raiders	W 22-20	1376.88	1425.72	46.83%	52.92%	+10.01	1-3
2015-10-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 18-17	1386.89	1499.87	30.69%	69.05%	+9.24	2-3
2015-10-18	@ Detroit Lions	L 34-37	1396.13	1436.50	40.22%	59.53%	-9.33	2-4
2015-11-01	Minnesota Vikings	L 20-23	1386.80	1531.72	33.62%	66.13%	-7.80	2-5
2015-11-09	@ San Diego Chargers	W 22-19	1379.00	1436.81	37.83%	61.92%	+14.35	3-5
2015-11-15	@ St. Louis Rams	W 37-13	1393.35	1494.90	32.11%	67.64%	+44.33	4-5
2015-11-22	Denver Broncos	L 15-17	1437.68	1608.64	30.36%	69.39%	-5.75	4-6
2015-11-26	@ Green Bay Packers	W 17-13	1431.93	1623.31	22.00%	77.75%	+20.80	5-6
2015-12-06	San Francisco 49ers	L 20-26	1452.73	1404.93	60.56%	39.19%	-19.84	5-7
2015-12-13	Washington Redskins	L 21-24	1432.89	1426.66	54.73%	45.02%	-12.69	5-8
2015-12-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-38	1420.20	1522.81	31.98%	67.77%	-19.63	5-9
2015-12-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-21	1400.57	1404.84	45.30%	54.45%	+16.29	6-9
2016-01-03	Detroit Lions	L 20-24	1416.86	1477.35	45.16%	54.59%	-12.09	6-10
2015-09-13	@ Oakland Raiders	W 33-13	1517.58	1410.24	61.14%	38.61%	+23.12	1-0
2015-09-20	San Diego Chargers	W 24-19	1540.70	1522.67	56.41%	43.34%	+12.97	2-0
2015-09-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 28-24	1553.67	1522.32	50.41%	49.34%	+13.21	3-0
2015-10-04	Kansas City Chiefs	W 36-21	1566.88	1520.28	60.39%	39.36%	+20.41	4-0
2015-10-11	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-24	1587.29	1616.39	49.66%	50.09%	+11.61	5-0
2015-10-18	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-21	1598.90	1530.81	55.67%	44.08%	+21.28	6-0
2015-11-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 16-10	1620.18	1567.87	53.42%	46.33%	+15.19	7-0
2015-11-05	Cleveland Browns	W 31-10	1635.37	1380.71	83.37%	16.38%	+10.06	8-0
2015-11-16	Houston Texans	L 6-10	1645.43	1453.38	77.82%	21.93%	-20.82	8-1
2015-11-22	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 31-34	1624.61	1626.86	45.59%	54.16%	-10.57	8-2
2015-11-29	St. Louis Rams	W 31-7	1614.04	1440.71	75.92%	23.83%	+15.65	9-2
2015-12-06	@ Cleveland Browns	W 37-3	1629.69	1345.25	81.26%	18.49%	+14.45	10-2
2015-12-13	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-33	1644.14	1590.97	61.29%	38.46%	-29.56	10-3
2015-12-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-14	1614.58	1395.09	74.95%	24.80%	+10.51	11-3
2015-12-28	@ Denver Broncos	L 17-20	1625.09	1612.11	47.77%	51.98%	-11.08	11-4
2016-01-03	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-16	1614.01	1461.62	73.66%	26.09%	+9.89	12-4
2015-09-13	@ New York Jets	L 10-31	1439.59	1448.47	44.64%	55.11%	-27.39	0-1
2015-09-20	Tennessee Titans	W 28-14	1412.20	1428.70	51.48%	48.27%	+24.18	1-1
2015-09-27	Oakland Raiders	L 20-27	1436.38	1405.09	58.27%	41.48%	-20.63	1-2
2015-10-04	@ San Diego Chargers	L 27-30	1415.75	1481.93	36.70%	63.05%	-8.51	1-3
2015-10-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 33-30	1407.24	1523.67	30.27%	69.48%	+16.10	2-3
2015-10-18	Denver Broncos	L 23-26	1423.34	1626.73	26.57%	73.18%	-6.17	2-4
2015-10-25	@ St. Louis Rams	L 6-24	1417.17	1456.47	40.36%	59.39%	-22.93	2-5
2015-11-01	Arizona Cardinals	L 20-34	1394.24	1593.93	26.98%	72.77%	-13.53	2-6
2015-11-05	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-31	1380.71	1635.37	16.38%	83.37%	-10.06	2-7
2015-11-15	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-30	1370.65	1560.38	22.16%	77.59%	-13.61	2-8
2015-11-30	Baltimore Ravens	L 27-33	1357.04	1484.28	35.93%	63.82%	-11.79	2-9
2015-12-06	Cincinnati Bengals	L 3-37	1345.25	1629.69	18.49%	81.26%	-14.45	2-10
2015-12-13	San Francisco 49ers	W 24-10	1330.80	1424.78	40.45%	59.30%	+29.68	3-10
2015-12-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-30	1360.48	1679.63	11.91%	87.84%	-6.58	3-11
2015-12-27	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-17	1353.90	1648.43	13.48%	86.27%	-3.61	3-12
2016-01-03	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-28	1350.29	1620.55	19.75%	80.00%	-10.59	3-13
2015-09-13	New York Giants	W 27-26	1560.33	1484.71	64.30%	35.45%	+4.75	1-0
2015-09-20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-10	1565.08	1521.98	52.10%	47.65%	+20.16	2-0
2015-09-27	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-39	1585.24	1491.78	66.62%	33.13%	-29.55	2-1
2015-10-04	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-26	1555.69	1430.57	63.54%	36.21%	-20.82	2-2
2015-10-11	New England Patriots	L 6-30	1534.87	1670.95	34.77%	64.98%	-22.82	2-3
2015-10-25	@ New York Giants	L 20-27	1512.05	1496.82	48.09%	51.66%	-17.03	2-4
2015-11-01	Seattle Seahawks	L 12-13	1495.02	1609.10	37.69%	62.06%	-5.04	2-5
2015-11-08	Philadelphia Eagles	L 27-33	1489.98	1538.98	46.80%	52.95%	-15.35	2-6
2015-11-15	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 6-10	1474.63	1378.84	59.56%	40.19%	-15.94	2-7
2015-11-22	@ Miami Dolphins	W 24-14	1458.69	1464.19	45.12%	54.63%	+23.12	3-7
2015-11-26	Carolina Panthers	L 14-33	1481.81	1658.03	29.73%	70.02%	-17.36	3-8
2015-12-07	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-16	1464.45	1438.27	49.67%	50.08%	+11.61	4-8
2015-12-13	@ Green Bay Packers	L 7-28	1476.06	1611.87	27.97%	71.78%	-17.17	4-9
2015-12-19	New York Jets	L 16-19	1458.89	1515.96	45.65%	54.10%	-10.59	4-10
2015-12-27	@ Buffalo Bills	L 6-16	1448.30	1492.62	39.67%	60.08%	-16.80	4-11
2016-01-03	Washington Redskins	L 23-34	1431.50	1491.22	45.27%	54.48%	-6.70	4-12
2015-09-13	Baltimore Ravens	W 19-13	1559.83	1555.13	54.51%	45.24%	+14.83	1-0
2015-09-17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 31-24	1574.66	1553.65	48.92%	50.83%	+18.00	2-0
2015-09-27	@ Detroit Lions	W 24-12	1592.66	1485.57	61.11%	38.64%	+17.92	3-0
2015-10-04	Minnesota Vikings	W 23-20	1610.58	1506.76	67.92%	31.83%	+7.39	4-0
2015-10-11	@ Oakland Raiders	W 16-10	1617.97	1415.71	73.06%	26.69%	+8.76	5-0
2015-10-18	@ Cleveland Browns	W 26-23	1626.73	1423.34	73.18%	26.57%	+6.16	6-0
2015-11-01	Green Bay Packers	W 29-10	1632.89	1657.69	50.28%	49.47%	+28.86	7-0
2015-11-08	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-27	1661.75	1485.25	70.06%	29.69%	-16.23	7-1
2015-11-15	Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-29	1645.52	1533.65	68.92%	30.83%	-36.88	7-2
2015-11-22	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-15	1608.64	1437.68	69.39%	30.36%	+5.75	8-2
2015-11-29	New England Patriots	W 30-24	1614.39	1743.63	35.67%	64.08%	+21.00	9-2
2015-12-06	@ San Diego Chargers	W 17-3	1635.39	1414.74	75.08%	24.67%	+12.37	10-2
2015-12-13	Oakland Raiders	L 12-15	1647.76	1411.26	81.88%	17.87%	-18.97	10-3
2015-12-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-34	1628.79	1620.53	47.09%	52.66%	-16.68	10-4
2015-12-28	Cincinnati Bengals	W 20-17	1612.11	1625.09	51.98%	47.77%	+11.08	11-4
2016-01-03	San Diego Chargers	W 27-20	1623.19	1410.62	79.77%	19.98%	+7.08	12-4
2015-09-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 28-33	1522.48	1508.33	47.94%	51.81%	-14.34	0-1
2015-09-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 16-26	1508.14	1456.42	53.33%	46.42%	-22.57	0-2
2015-09-27	Denver Broncos	L 12-24	1485.57	1592.66	38.64%	61.11%	-17.93	0-3
2015-10-05	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-13	1467.64	1610.08	27.21%	72.54%	-6.31	0-4
2015-10-11	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-42	1461.33	1579.92	37.08%	62.67%	-24.83	0-5
2015-10-18	Chicago Bears	W 37-34	1436.50	1396.13	59.53%	40.22%	+9.32	1-5
2015-10-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 19-28	1445.82	1514.02	44.07%	55.68%	-17.69	1-6
2015-11-01	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-45	1428.13	1502.49	39.34%	60.41%	-31.17	1-7
2015-11-15	@ Green Bay Packers	W 18-16	1396.96	1610.70	19.87%	79.88%	+15.11	2-7
2015-11-22	Oakland Raiders	W 18-13	1412.07	1430.56	51.19%	48.56%	+14.54	3-7
2015-11-26	Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-14	1426.61	1493.32	44.28%	55.47%	+41.33	4-7
2015-12-03	Green Bay Packers	L 23-27	1467.94	1602.50	34.96%	64.79%	-9.37	4-8
2015-12-13	@ St. Louis Rams	L 14-21	1458.57	1408.85	53.05%	46.70%	-18.78	4-9
2015-12-21	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-27	1439.79	1415.95	49.33%	50.42%	+19.08	5-9
2015-12-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 32-17	1458.87	1384.58	64.13%	35.62%	+18.48	6-9
2016-01-03	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-20	1477.35	1416.86	54.59%	45.16%	+12.09	7-9
2015-09-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 31-23	1570.57	1428.48	65.76%	33.99%	+12.87	1-0
2015-09-20	Seattle Seahawks	W 27-17	1583.44	1617.43	48.96%	50.79%	+21.50	2-0
2015-09-28	Kansas City Chiefs	W 38-28	1604.94	1535.65	63.46%	36.29%	+15.37	3-0
2015-10-04	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 17-3	1620.31	1471.65	66.61%	33.14%	+16.61	4-0
2015-10-11	St. Louis Rams	W 24-10	1636.92	1468.69	75.38%	24.37%	+12.22	5-0
2015-10-18	San Diego Chargers	W 27-20	1649.14	1478.66	75.62%	24.13%	+8.55	6-0
2015-11-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-29	1657.69	1632.89	49.47%	50.28%	-28.85	6-1
2015-11-08	@ Carolina Panthers	L 29-37	1628.84	1614.94	47.90%	51.85%	-18.14	6-2
2015-11-15	Detroit Lions	L 16-18	1610.70	1396.96	79.88%	19.87%	-15.11	6-3
2015-11-22	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 30-13	1595.59	1570.45	49.52%	50.23%	+27.72	7-3
2015-11-26	Chicago Bears	L 13-17	1623.31	1431.93	77.75%	22.00%	-20.81	7-4
2015-12-03	@ Detroit Lions	W 27-23	1602.50	1467.94	64.79%	34.96%	+9.37	8-4
2015-12-13	Dallas Cowboys	W 28-7	1611.87	1476.06	71.78%	27.97%	+17.17	9-4
2015-12-20	@ Oakland Raiders	W 30-20	1629.04	1430.23	72.67%	27.08%	+11.48	10-4
2015-12-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 8-38	1640.52	1687.47	39.31%	60.44%	-28.83	10-5
2016-01-03	Minnesota Vikings	L 13-20	1611.69	1572.20	59.41%	40.34%	-21.03	10-6
2015-09-13	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-27	1504.92	1536.17	49.35%	50.40%	-17.48	0-1
2015-09-20	@ Carolina Panthers	L 17-24	1487.44	1535.67	39.13%	60.62%	-13.86	0-2
2015-09-27	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 19-9	1473.58	1401.13	63.88%	35.87%	+15.19	1-2
2015-10-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-48	1488.77	1521.33	41.30%	58.45%	-28.73	1-3
2015-10-08	Indianapolis Colts	L 20-27	1460.04	1506.69	47.14%	52.61%	-16.70	1-4
2015-10-18	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-20	1443.34	1359.22	57.93%	41.82%	+18.57	2-4
2015-10-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 26-44	1461.91	1466.96	45.19%	54.56%	-25.66	2-5
2015-11-01	Tennessee Titans	W 20-6	1436.25	1351.01	65.56%	34.19%	+17.13	3-5
2015-11-16	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 10-6	1453.38	1645.43	21.93%	77.82%	+20.82	4-5
2015-11-22	New York Jets	W 24-17	1474.20	1479.87	53.03%	46.72%	+16.55	5-5
2015-11-29	New Orleans Saints	W 24-6	1490.75	1419.38	63.74%	36.01%	+20.46	6-5
2015-12-06	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-30	1511.21	1510.46	46.02%	53.73%	-18.48	6-6
2015-12-13	New England Patriots	L 6-27	1492.73	1692.69	26.95%	72.80%	-16.55	6-7
2015-12-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 16-10	1476.18	1445.62	50.30%	49.45%	+16.21	7-7
2015-12-27	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-6	1492.39	1315.06	70.16%	29.59%	+20.98	8-7
2016-01-03	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 30-6	1513.37	1366.12	73.09%	26.66%	+17.51	9-7
2015-09-13	@ Buffalo Bills	L 14-27	1545.13	1514.79	50.26%	49.49%	-24.26	0-1
2015-09-21	New York Jets	L 7-20	1520.87	1475.86	60.17%	39.58%	-29.03	0-2
2015-09-27	@ Tennessee Titans	W 35-33	1491.84	1404.53	58.38%	41.37%	+7.84	1-2
2015-10-04	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 16-13	1499.68	1382.73	69.54%	30.21%	+7.01	2-2
2015-10-08	@ Houston Texans	W 27-20	1506.69	1460.04	52.61%	47.14%	+16.69	3-2
2015-10-18	New England Patriots	L 27-34	1523.38	1693.76	30.43%	69.32%	-10.78	3-3
2015-10-25	New Orleans Saints	L 21-27	1512.60	1454.65	61.94%	37.81%	-20.30	3-4
2015-11-02	@ Carolina Panthers	L 26-29	1492.30	1607.89	30.38%	69.37%	-7.05	3-5
2015-11-08	Denver Broncos	W 27-24	1485.25	1661.75	29.69%	70.06%	+16.23	4-5
2015-11-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 24-21	1501.48	1513.65	44.17%	55.58%	+12.88	5-5
2015-11-29	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 25-12	1514.36	1446.77	63.24%	36.51%	+17.63	6-5
2015-12-06	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 10-45	1531.99	1557.47	42.29%	57.46%	-33.50	6-6
2015-12-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-51	1498.49	1348.29	66.80%	32.95%	-52.87	6-7
2015-12-20	Houston Texans	L 10-16	1445.62	1476.18	49.45%	50.30%	-16.21	6-8
2015-12-27	@ Miami Dolphins	W 18-12	1429.41	1385.70	52.19%	47.56%	+15.59	7-8
2016-01-03	Tennessee Titans	W 30-24	1445.00	1294.08	73.50%	26.25%	+8.62	8-8
2015-09-13	Carolina Panthers	L 9-20	1396.54	1519.46	36.51%	63.24%	-16.21	0-1
2015-09-20	Miami Dolphins	W 23-20	1380.33	1503.52	36.47%	63.28%	+14.66	1-1
2015-09-27	@ New England Patriots	L 17-51	1394.99	1658.69	15.68%	84.07%	-12.26	1-2
2015-10-04	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 13-16	1382.73	1499.68	30.21%	69.54%	-7.01	1-3
2015-10-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 31-38	1375.72	1370.84	46.61%	53.14%	-16.50	1-4
2015-10-18	Houston Texans	L 20-31	1359.22	1443.34	41.82%	57.93%	-18.57	1-5
2015-10-25	Buffalo Bills	W 34-31	1340.65	1509.53	27.34%	72.41%	+16.77	2-5
2015-11-08	@ New York Jets	L 23-28	1357.42	1486.46	28.76%	70.99%	-8.61	2-6
2015-11-15	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 22-20	1348.81	1488.08	27.57%	72.18%	+13.65	3-6
2015-11-19	Tennessee Titans	W 19-13	1362.46	1347.35	55.99%	43.76%	+14.35	4-6
2015-11-29	San Diego Chargers	L 25-31	1376.81	1398.09	50.79%	48.96%	-16.65	4-7
2015-12-06	@ Tennessee Titans	L 39-42	1360.16	1323.27	51.21%	48.54%	-11.87	4-8
2015-12-13	Indianapolis Colts	W 51-16	1348.29	1498.49	32.95%	66.80%	+52.87	5-8
2015-12-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 17-23	1401.16	1449.84	46.85%	52.90%	-15.36	5-9
2015-12-27	@ New Orleans Saints	L 27-38	1385.80	1396.86	44.33%	55.42%	-19.68	5-10
2016-01-03	@ Houston Texans	L 6-30	1366.12	1513.37	26.66%	73.09%	-17.50	5-11
2015-09-13	@ Houston Texans	W 27-20	1536.17	1504.92	50.40%	49.35%	+17.48	1-0
2015-09-17	Denver Broncos	L 24-31	1553.65	1574.66	50.83%	48.92%	-18.00	1-1
2015-09-28	@ Green Bay Packers	L 28-38	1535.65	1604.94	36.29%	63.46%	-15.37	1-2
2015-10-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 21-36	1520.28	1566.88	39.36%	60.39%	-20.41	1-3
2015-10-11	Chicago Bears	L 17-18	1499.87	1386.89	69.05%	30.69%	-9.24	1-4
2015-10-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-16	1490.63	1499.37	44.66%	55.09%	-14.64	1-5
2015-10-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-13	1475.99	1594.37	37.11%	62.64%	+26.50	2-5
2015-11-01	Detroit Lions	W 45-10	1502.49	1428.13	60.41%	39.34%	+31.16	3-5
2015-11-15	@ Denver Broncos	W 29-13	1533.65	1645.52	30.83%	68.92%	+36.88	4-5
2015-11-22	@ San Diego Chargers	W 33-3	1570.53	1422.46	66.53%	33.22%	+24.37	5-5
2015-11-29	Buffalo Bills	W 30-22	1594.90	1524.13	63.66%	36.09%	+13.67	6-5
2015-12-06	@ Oakland Raiders	W 34-20	1608.57	1425.76	70.81%	28.94%	+14.51	7-5
2015-12-13	San Diego Chargers	W 10-3	1623.08	1402.37	80.51%	19.24%	+6.82	8-5
2015-12-20	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 34-14	1629.90	1463.48	68.83%	30.92%	+18.53	9-5
2015-12-27	Cleveland Browns	W 17-13	1648.43	1353.90	86.27%	13.48%	+3.61	10-5
2016-01-03	Oakland Raiders	W 23-17	1652.04	1429.48	80.68%	19.07%	+6.26	11-5
2015-09-13	@ Washington Redskins	W 17-10	1488.87	1401.39	58.40%	41.35%	+14.65	1-0
2015-09-20	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 20-23	1503.52	1380.33	63.28%	36.47%	-14.66	1-1
2015-09-27	Buffalo Bills	L 14-41	1488.86	1524.30	48.75%	51.00%	-33.91	1-2
2015-10-04	New York Jets	L 14-27	1454.95	1485.67	45.47%	54.28%	-21.94	1-3
2015-10-18	@ Tennessee Titans	W 38-10	1433.01	1391.92	51.81%	47.94%	+33.95	2-3
2015-10-25	Houston Texans	W 44-26	1466.96	1461.91	54.56%	45.19%	+25.66	3-3
2015-10-29	@ New England Patriots	L 7-36	1492.62	1712.72	19.29%	80.46%	-13.92	3-4
2015-11-08	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-33	1478.70	1492.76	43.91%	55.84%	-23.51	3-5
2015-11-15	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 20-19	1455.19	1554.33	32.42%	67.33%	+9.00	4-5
2015-11-22	Dallas Cowboys	L 14-24	1464.19	1458.69	54.63%	45.12%	-23.11	4-6
2015-11-29	@ New York Jets	L 20-38	1441.08	1463.33	42.75%	57.00%	-24.28	4-7
2015-12-06	Baltimore Ravens	W 15-13	1416.80	1496.07	42.50%	57.25%	+10.83	5-7
2015-12-14	New York Giants	L 24-31	1427.63	1485.56	45.53%	54.22%	-16.12	5-8
2015-12-20	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-30	1411.51	1395.54	48.20%	51.55%	-25.81	5-9
2015-12-27	Indianapolis Colts	L 12-18	1385.70	1429.41	47.56%	52.19%	-15.59	5-10
2016-01-03	New England Patriots	W 20-10	1370.11	1690.43	15.58%	84.17%	+35.61	6-10
2015-09-14	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 3-20	1479.19	1512.23	41.24%	58.51%	-22.77	0-1
2015-09-20	Detroit Lions	W 26-16	1456.42	1508.14	46.42%	53.33%	+22.57	1-1
2015-09-27	San Diego Chargers	W 31-14	1478.99	1509.70	49.43%	50.32%	+27.77	2-1
2015-10-04	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-23	1506.76	1610.58	31.83%	67.92%	-7.39	2-2
2015-10-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 16-10	1499.37	1490.63	55.09%	44.66%	+14.65	3-2
2015-10-25	@ Detroit Lions	W 28-19	1514.02	1445.82	55.68%	44.07%	+17.70	4-2
2015-11-01	@ Chicago Bears	W 23-20	1531.72	1386.80	66.13%	33.62%	+7.80	5-2
2015-11-08	St. Louis Rams	W 21-18	1539.52	1504.40	58.80%	40.95%	+9.49	6-2
2015-11-15	@ Oakland Raiders	W 30-14	1549.01	1452.00	59.72%	40.03%	+21.44	7-2
2015-11-22	Green Bay Packers	L 13-30	1570.45	1595.59	50.23%	49.52%	-27.72	7-3
2015-11-29	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-10	1542.73	1500.77	51.94%	47.81%	+20.24	8-3
2015-12-06	Seattle Seahawks	L 7-38	1562.97	1624.30	45.04%	54.71%	-33.57	8-4
2015-12-10	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-23	1529.40	1661.61	28.39%	71.36%	-6.59	8-5
2015-12-20	Chicago Bears	W 38-17	1522.81	1420.20	67.77%	31.98%	+19.63	9-5
2015-12-27	New York Giants	W 49-17	1542.44	1495.29	60.47%	39.28%	+29.76	10-5
2016-01-03	@ Green Bay Packers	W 20-13	1572.20	1611.69	40.34%	59.41%	+21.03	11-5
2015-09-10	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 28-21	1632.10	1540.77	66.34%	33.41%	+11.84	1-0
2015-09-20	@ Buffalo Bills	W 40-32	1643.94	1539.05	60.81%	38.94%	+14.75	2-0
2015-09-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 51-17	1658.69	1394.99	84.07%	15.68%	+12.26	3-0
2015-10-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 30-6	1670.95	1534.87	64.98%	34.77%	+22.81	4-0
2015-10-18	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 34-27	1693.76	1523.38	69.32%	30.43%	+10.79	5-0
2015-10-25	New York Jets	W 30-23	1704.55	1523.69	76.69%	23.06%	+8.17	6-0
2015-10-29	Miami Dolphins	W 36-7	1712.72	1492.62	80.46%	19.29%	+13.93	7-0
2015-11-08	Washington Redskins	W 27-10	1726.65	1395.71	88.54%	11.21%	+6.20	8-0
2015-11-15	@ New York Giants	W 27-26	1732.85	1521.52	74.07%	25.68%	+3.44	9-0
2015-11-23	Buffalo Bills	W 20-13	1736.29	1531.47	79.05%	20.70%	+7.34	10-0
2015-11-29	@ Denver Broncos	L 24-30	1743.63	1614.39	64.08%	35.67%	-21.00	10-1
2015-12-06	Philadelphia Eagles	L 28-35	1722.63	1451.99	84.59%	15.16%	-29.94	10-2
2015-12-13	@ Houston Texans	W 27-6	1692.69	1492.73	72.80%	26.95%	+16.55	11-2
2015-12-20	Tennessee Titans	W 33-16	1709.24	1319.63	91.48%	8.27%	+4.57	12-2
2015-12-27	@ New York Jets	L 20-26	1713.81	1526.54	71.33%	28.42%	-23.38	12-3
2016-01-03	@ Miami Dolphins	L 10-20	1690.43	1370.11	84.17%	15.58%	-35.61	12-4
2015-09-13	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 19-31	1482.02	1518.01	40.82%	58.93%	-18.94	0-1
2015-09-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 19-26	1463.08	1377.93	65.55%	34.20%	-23.20	0-2
2015-09-27	@ Carolina Panthers	L 22-27	1439.88	1549.54	31.10%	68.65%	-9.31	0-3
2015-10-04	Dallas Cowboys	W 26-20	1430.57	1555.69	36.21%	63.54%	+20.82	1-3
2015-10-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-39	1451.39	1506.44	38.20%	61.55%	-24.00	1-4
2015-10-15	Atlanta Falcons	W 31-21	1427.39	1559.27	35.32%	64.43%	+27.26	2-4
2015-10-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 27-21	1454.65	1512.60	37.81%	61.94%	+20.30	3-4
2015-11-01	New York Giants	W 52-49	1474.95	1513.85	48.25%	51.50%	+11.93	4-4
2015-11-08	Tennessee Titans	L 28-34	1486.88	1333.87	73.73%	26.02%	-24.16	4-5
2015-11-15	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-47	1462.72	1389.51	56.40%	43.35%	-43.34	4-6
2015-11-29	@ Houston Texans	L 6-24	1419.38	1490.75	36.01%	63.74%	-20.46	4-7
2015-12-06	Carolina Panthers	L 38-41	1398.92	1675.39	19.19%	80.56%	-4.46	4-8
2015-12-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 24-17	1394.46	1443.40	39.04%	60.71%	+21.49	5-8
2015-12-21	Detroit Lions	L 27-35	1415.95	1439.79	50.42%	49.33%	-19.09	5-9
2015-12-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 38-27	1396.86	1385.80	55.42%	44.33%	+19.69	6-9
2016-01-03	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 20-17	1416.55	1492.40	35.42%	64.33%	+14.90	7-9
2015-09-13	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 26-27	1484.71	1560.33	35.45%	64.30%	-4.75	0-1
2015-09-20	Atlanta Falcons	L 20-24	1479.96	1477.26	54.23%	45.52%	-14.51	0-2
2015-09-24	Washington Redskins	W 32-21	1465.45	1417.71	60.55%	39.20%	+17.41	1-2
2015-10-04	@ Buffalo Bills	W 24-10	1482.86	1558.20	35.48%	64.27%	+32.16	2-2
2015-10-11	San Francisco 49ers	W 30-27	1515.02	1455.04	62.22%	37.53%	+8.71	3-2
2015-10-19	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 7-27	1523.73	1530.43	44.95%	54.80%	-26.91	3-3
2015-10-25	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-20	1496.82	1512.05	51.66%	48.09%	+17.03	4-3
2015-11-01	@ New Orleans Saints	L 49-52	1513.85	1474.95	51.50%	48.25%	-11.94	4-4
2015-11-08	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 32-18	1501.91	1398.45	60.61%	39.14%	+19.61	5-4
2015-11-15	New England Patriots	L 26-27	1521.52	1732.85	25.68%	74.07%	-3.44	5-5
2015-11-29	@ Washington Redskins	L 14-20	1518.08	1418.58	60.07%	39.68%	-19.68	5-6
2015-12-06	New York Jets	L 20-23	1498.40	1487.61	55.38%	44.37%	-12.84	5-7
2015-12-14	@ Miami Dolphins	W 31-24	1485.56	1427.63	54.22%	45.53%	+16.13	6-7
2015-12-20	Carolina Panthers	L 35-38	1501.69	1696.28	27.57%	72.18%	-6.40	6-8
2015-12-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 17-49	1495.29	1542.44	39.28%	60.47%	-29.76	6-9
2016-01-03	Philadelphia Eagles	L 30-35	1465.53	1447.10	56.46%	43.29%	-16.89	6-10
2015-09-13	Cleveland Browns	W 31-10	1448.47	1439.59	55.11%	44.64%	+27.39	1-0
2015-09-21	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 20-7	1475.86	1520.87	39.58%	60.17%	+29.03	2-0
2015-09-27	Philadelphia Eagles	L 17-24	1504.89	1501.81	54.28%	45.47%	-19.22	2-1
2015-10-04	@ Miami Dolphins	W 27-14	1485.67	1454.95	54.28%	45.47%	+21.94	3-1
2015-10-18	Washington Redskins	W 34-20	1507.61	1405.68	67.69%	32.06%	+16.08	4-1
2015-10-25	@ New England Patriots	L 23-30	1523.69	1704.55	23.06%	76.69%	-8.18	4-2
2015-11-01	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-34	1515.51	1430.65	58.03%	41.72%	-29.05	4-3
2015-11-08	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-23	1486.46	1357.42	70.99%	28.76%	+8.62	5-3
2015-11-12	Buffalo Bills	L 17-22	1495.08	1516.27	50.80%	48.95%	-15.21	5-4
2015-11-22	@ Houston Texans	L 17-24	1479.87	1474.20	46.72%	53.03%	-16.54	5-5
2015-11-29	Miami Dolphins	W 38-20	1463.33	1441.08	57.00%	42.75%	+24.28	6-5
2015-12-06	@ New York Giants	W 23-20	1487.61	1498.40	44.37%	55.38%	+12.83	7-5
2015-12-13	Tennessee Titans	W 30-8	1500.44	1335.14	75.07%	24.68%	+15.52	8-5
2015-12-19	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 19-16	1515.96	1458.89	54.10%	45.65%	+10.58	9-5
2015-12-27	New England Patriots	W 26-20	1526.54	1713.81	28.42%	71.33%	+23.38	10-5
2016-01-03	@ Buffalo Bills	L 17-22	1549.92	1509.42	51.73%	48.02%	-15.48	10-6
2015-09-13	Cincinnati Bengals	L 13-33	1410.24	1517.58	38.61%	61.14%	-23.12	0-1
2015-09-20	Baltimore Ravens	W 37-33	1387.12	1540.29	32.57%	67.18%	+17.97	1-1
2015-09-27	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-20	1405.09	1436.38	41.48%	58.27%	+20.63	2-1
2015-10-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 20-22	1425.72	1376.88	52.92%	46.83%	-10.01	2-2
2015-10-11	Denver Broncos	L 10-16	1415.71	1617.97	26.69%	73.06%	-8.77	2-3
2015-10-25	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-29	1406.94	1470.11	37.11%	62.64%	+23.71	3-3
2015-11-01	New York Jets	W 34-20	1430.65	1515.51	41.72%	58.03%	+29.05	4-3
2015-11-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 35-38	1459.70	1552.68	33.20%	66.55%	-7.70	4-4
2015-11-15	Minnesota Vikings	L 14-30	1452.00	1549.01	40.03%	59.72%	-21.44	4-5
2015-11-22	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-18	1430.56	1412.07	48.56%	51.19%	-14.53	4-6
2015-11-29	@ Tennessee Titans	W 24-21	1416.03	1333.00	57.78%	41.97%	+9.73	5-6
2015-12-06	Kansas City Chiefs	L 20-34	1425.76	1608.57	28.94%	70.81%	-14.50	5-7
2015-12-13	@ Denver Broncos	W 15-12	1411.26	1647.76	17.87%	81.88%	+18.97	6-7
2015-12-20	Green Bay Packers	L 20-30	1430.23	1629.04	27.08%	72.67%	-11.47	6-8
2015-12-24	San Diego Chargers	W 23-20	1418.76	1421.35	53.47%	46.28%	+10.72	7-8
2016-01-03	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-23	1429.48	1652.04	19.07%	80.68%	-6.26	7-9
2015-09-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 24-26	1532.45	1466.80	55.32%	44.43%	-10.47	0-1
2015-09-20	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-20	1521.98	1565.08	47.65%	52.10%	-20.17	0-2
2015-09-27	@ New York Jets	W 24-17	1501.81	1504.89	45.47%	54.28%	+19.22	1-2
2015-10-04	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-23	1521.03	1400.30	62.95%	36.80%	-14.59	1-3
2015-10-11	New Orleans Saints	W 39-17	1506.44	1451.39	61.55%	38.20%	+23.99	2-3
2015-10-19	New York Giants	W 27-7	1530.43	1523.73	54.80%	44.95%	+26.91	3-3
2015-10-25	@ Carolina Panthers	L 16-27	1557.34	1589.53	41.35%	58.40%	-18.36	3-4
2015-11-08	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 33-27	1538.98	1489.98	52.95%	46.80%	+15.35	4-4
2015-11-15	Miami Dolphins	L 19-20	1554.33	1455.19	67.33%	32.42%	-9.01	4-5
2015-11-22	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-45	1545.32	1394.77	73.45%	26.30%	-52.00	4-6
2015-11-26	@ Detroit Lions	L 14-45	1493.32	1426.61	55.47%	44.28%	-41.33	4-7
2015-12-06	@ New England Patriots	W 35-28	1451.99	1722.63	15.16%	84.59%	+29.95	5-7
2015-12-13	Buffalo Bills	W 23-20	1481.94	1528.94	47.09%	52.66%	+12.20	6-7
2015-12-20	Arizona Cardinals	L 17-40	1494.14	1668.20	29.99%	69.76%	-19.26	6-8
2015-12-26	Washington Redskins	L 24-38	1474.88	1463.45	55.47%	44.28%	-27.78	6-9
2016-01-03	@ New York Giants	W 35-30	1447.10	1465.53	43.29%	56.46%	+16.90	7-9
2015-09-10	@ New England Patriots	L 21-28	1540.77	1632.10	33.41%	66.34%	-11.84	0-1
2015-09-20	San Francisco 49ers	W 43-18	1528.93	1534.99	52.97%	46.78%	+31.30	1-1
2015-09-27	@ St. Louis Rams	W 12-6	1560.23	1468.42	59.00%	40.75%	+13.37	2-1
2015-10-01	Baltimore Ravens	L 20-23	1573.60	1509.11	62.82%	36.93%	-14.56	2-2
2015-10-12	@ San Diego Chargers	W 24-20	1559.04	1490.45	55.74%	44.01%	+11.78	3-2
2015-10-18	Arizona Cardinals	W 25-13	1570.82	1604.76	48.97%	50.78%	+23.55	4-2
2015-10-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-23	1594.37	1475.99	62.64%	37.11%	-26.50	4-3
2015-11-01	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-16	1567.87	1620.18	46.33%	53.42%	-15.19	4-4
2015-11-08	Oakland Raiders	W 38-35	1552.68	1459.70	66.55%	33.20%	+7.70	5-4
2015-11-15	Cleveland Browns	W 30-9	1560.38	1370.65	77.59%	22.16%	+13.61	6-4
2015-11-29	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 30-39	1573.99	1607.78	41.13%	58.62%	-16.52	6-5
2015-12-06	Indianapolis Colts	W 45-10	1557.47	1531.99	57.46%	42.29%	+33.50	7-5
2015-12-13	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 33-20	1590.97	1644.14	38.46%	61.29%	+29.56	8-5
2015-12-20	Denver Broncos	W 34-27	1620.53	1628.79	52.66%	47.09%	+16.68	9-5
2015-12-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 17-20	1637.21	1444.96	71.91%	27.84%	-16.66	9-6
2016-01-03	@ Cleveland Browns	W 28-12	1620.55	1350.29	80.00%	19.75%	+10.59	10-6
2015-09-13	Detroit Lions	W 33-28	1508.33	1522.48	51.81%	47.94%	+14.34	1-0
2015-09-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 19-24	1522.67	1540.70	43.34%	56.41%	-12.97	1-1
2015-09-27	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-31	1509.70	1478.99	50.32%	49.43%	-27.77	1-2
2015-10-04	Cleveland Browns	W 30-27	1481.93	1415.75	63.05%	36.70%	+8.52	2-2
2015-10-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-24	1490.45	1559.04	44.01%	55.74%	-11.79	2-3
2015-10-18	@ Green Bay Packers	L 20-27	1478.66	1649.14	24.13%	75.62%	-8.55	2-4
2015-10-25	Oakland Raiders	L 29-37	1470.11	1406.94	62.64%	37.11%	-23.71	2-5
2015-11-01	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 26-29	1446.40	1478.49	41.37%	58.38%	-9.59	2-6
2015-11-09	Chicago Bears	L 19-22	1436.81	1379.00	61.92%	37.83%	-14.35	2-7
2015-11-22	Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-33	1422.46	1570.53	33.22%	66.53%	-24.37	2-8
2015-11-29	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 31-25	1398.09	1376.81	48.96%	50.79%	+16.65	3-8
2015-12-06	Denver Broncos	L 3-17	1414.74	1635.39	24.67%	75.08%	-12.37	3-9
2015-12-13	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-10	1402.37	1623.08	19.24%	80.51%	-6.83	3-10
2015-12-20	Miami Dolphins	W 30-14	1395.54	1411.51	51.55%	48.20%	+25.81	4-10
2015-12-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-23	1421.35	1418.76	46.28%	53.47%	-10.73	4-11
2016-01-03	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-27	1410.62	1623.19	19.98%	79.77%	-7.09	4-12
2015-09-14	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-3	1512.23	1479.19	58.51%	41.24%	+22.76	1-0
2015-09-20	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 18-43	1534.99	1528.93	46.78%	52.97%	-31.30	1-1
2015-09-27	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-47	1503.69	1561.53	37.82%	61.93%	-32.04	1-2
2015-10-04	Green Bay Packers	L 3-17	1471.65	1620.31	33.14%	66.61%	-16.61	1-3
2015-10-11	@ New York Giants	L 27-30	1455.04	1515.02	37.53%	62.22%	-8.71	1-4
2015-10-18	Baltimore Ravens	W 25-20	1446.33	1507.57	45.05%	54.70%	+16.37	2-4
2015-10-22	Seattle Seahawks	L 3-20	1462.70	1589.21	36.03%	63.72%	-19.90	2-5
2015-11-01	@ St. Louis Rams	L 6-27	1442.80	1479.40	40.74%	59.01%	-24.99	2-6
2015-11-08	Atlanta Falcons	W 17-16	1417.81	1521.77	39.07%	60.68%	+8.11	3-6
2015-11-22	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 13-29	1425.92	1594.75	24.31%	75.44%	-13.02	3-7
2015-11-29	Arizona Cardinals	L 13-19	1412.90	1637.43	24.26%	75.49%	-7.97	3-8
2015-12-06	@ Chicago Bears	W 26-20	1404.93	1452.73	39.19%	60.56%	+19.85	4-8
2015-12-13	@ Cleveland Browns	L 10-24	1424.78	1330.80	59.30%	40.45%	-29.69	4-9
2015-12-20	Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-24	1395.09	1614.58	24.80%	74.95%	-10.51	4-10
2015-12-27	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-32	1384.58	1458.87	35.62%	64.13%	-18.48	4-11
2016-01-03	St. Louis Rams	W 19-16	1366.10	1471.67	38.85%	60.90%	+14.12	5-11
2015-09-13	@ St. Louis Rams	L 31-34	1632.87	1483.94	66.64%	33.11%	-15.44	0-1
2015-09-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 17-27	1617.43	1583.44	50.79%	48.96%	-21.49	0-2
2015-09-27	Chicago Bears	W 26-0	1595.94	1391.02	79.06%	20.69%	+14.14	1-2
2015-10-05	Detroit Lions	W 13-10	1610.08	1467.64	72.54%	27.21%	+6.31	2-2
2015-10-11	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 24-27	1616.39	1587.29	50.09%	49.66%	-11.61	2-3
2015-10-18	Carolina Panthers	L 23-27	1604.78	1573.95	58.21%	41.54%	-15.57	2-4
2015-10-22	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 20-3	1589.21	1462.70	63.72%	36.03%	+19.89	3-4
2015-11-01	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 13-12	1609.10	1495.02	62.06%	37.69%	+5.05	4-4
2015-11-15	Arizona Cardinals	L 32-39	1614.15	1607.46	54.80%	44.95%	-19.40	4-5
2015-11-22	San Francisco 49ers	W 29-13	1594.75	1425.92	75.44%	24.31%	+13.03	5-5
2015-11-29	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 39-30	1607.78	1573.99	58.62%	41.13%	+16.52	6-5
2015-12-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 38-7	1624.30	1562.97	54.71%	45.04%	+33.57	7-5
2015-12-13	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 35-6	1657.87	1485.24	69.59%	30.16%	+21.76	8-5
2015-12-20	Cleveland Browns	W 30-13	1679.63	1360.48	87.84%	11.91%	+6.58	9-5
2015-12-27	St. Louis Rams	L 17-23	1686.21	1444.70	82.30%	17.45%	-26.97	9-6
2016-01-03	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 36-6	1659.24	1716.30	37.93%	61.82%	+45.30	10-6
2015-09-13	Seattle Seahawks	W 34-31	1483.94	1632.87	33.11%	66.64%	+15.44	1-0
2015-09-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 10-24	1499.38	1386.74	61.86%	37.89%	-30.96	1-1
2015-09-27	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 6-12	1468.42	1560.23	40.75%	59.00%	-13.37	1-2
2015-10-04	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 24-22	1455.05	1593.56	27.66%	72.09%	+13.64	2-2
2015-10-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-24	1468.69	1636.92	24.37%	75.38%	-12.22	2-3
2015-10-25	Cleveland Browns	W 24-6	1456.47	1417.17	59.39%	40.36%	+22.93	3-3
2015-11-01	San Francisco 49ers	W 27-6	1479.40	1442.80	59.01%	40.74%	+25.00	4-3
2015-11-08	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 18-21	1504.40	1539.52	40.95%	58.80%	-9.50	4-4
2015-11-15	Chicago Bears	L 13-37	1494.90	1393.35	67.64%	32.11%	-44.32	4-5
2015-11-22	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 13-16	1450.58	1474.42	42.52%	57.23%	-9.87	4-6
2015-11-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-31	1440.71	1614.04	23.83%	75.92%	-15.64	4-7
2015-12-06	Arizona Cardinals	L 3-27	1425.07	1645.39	24.71%	75.04%	-16.22	4-8
2015-12-13	Detroit Lions	W 21-14	1408.85	1458.57	46.70%	53.05%	+18.78	5-8
2015-12-17	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-23	1427.63	1421.91	54.66%	45.09%	+17.07	6-8
2015-12-27	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 23-17	1444.70	1686.21	17.45%	82.30%	+26.97	7-8
2016-01-03	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 16-19	1471.67	1366.10	60.90%	38.85%	-14.11	7-9
2015-09-13	Tennessee Titans	L 14-42	1419.24	1387.40	58.35%	41.40%	-41.31	0-1
2015-09-20	@ New Orleans Saints	W 26-19	1377.93	1463.08	34.20%	65.55%	+23.20	1-1
2015-09-27	@ Houston Texans	L 9-19	1401.13	1473.58	35.87%	63.88%	-15.19	1-2
2015-10-04	Carolina Panthers	L 23-37	1385.94	1558.85	30.13%	69.62%	-15.10	1-3
2015-10-11	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 38-31	1370.84	1375.72	53.14%	46.61%	+16.50	2-3
2015-10-25	@ Washington Redskins	L 30-31	1387.34	1389.61	45.58%	54.17%	-6.10	2-4
2015-11-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 23-20	1381.24	1538.97	25.50%	74.25%	+17.21	3-4
2015-11-08	New York Giants	L 18-32	1398.45	1501.91	39.14%	60.61%	-19.61	3-5
2015-11-15	Dallas Cowboys	W 10-6	1378.84	1474.63	40.19%	59.56%	+15.93	4-5
2015-11-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 45-17	1394.77	1545.32	26.30%	73.45%	+52.00	5-5
2015-11-29	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 12-25	1446.77	1514.36	36.51%	63.24%	-17.63	5-6
2015-12-06	Atlanta Falcons	W 23-19	1429.14	1480.53	46.46%	53.29%	+14.26	6-6
2015-12-13	New Orleans Saints	L 17-24	1443.40	1394.46	60.71%	39.04%	-21.49	6-7
2015-12-17	@ St. Louis Rams	L 23-31	1421.91	1427.63	45.09%	54.66%	-17.07	6-8
2015-12-27	Chicago Bears	L 21-26	1404.84	1400.57	54.45%	45.30%	-16.30	6-9
2016-01-03	@ Carolina Panthers	L 10-38	1388.54	1675.48	13.99%	85.76%	-9.92	6-10
2015-09-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 42-14	1387.40	1419.24	41.40%	58.35%	+41.30	1-0
2015-09-20	@ Cleveland Browns	L 14-28	1428.70	1412.20	48.27%	51.48%	-24.17	1-1
2015-09-27	Indianapolis Colts	L 33-35	1404.53	1491.84	41.37%	58.38%	-7.84	1-2
2015-10-11	Buffalo Bills	L 13-14	1396.69	1526.04	35.65%	64.10%	-4.77	1-3
2015-10-18	Miami Dolphins	L 10-38	1391.92	1433.01	47.94%	51.81%	-33.95	1-4
2015-10-25	Atlanta Falcons	L 7-10	1357.97	1532.01	29.99%	69.76%	-6.96	1-5
2015-11-01	@ Houston Texans	L 6-20	1351.01	1436.25	34.19%	65.56%	-17.14	1-6
2015-11-08	@ New Orleans Saints	W 34-28	1333.87	1486.88	26.02%	73.73%	+24.16	2-6
2015-11-15	Carolina Panthers	L 10-27	1358.03	1633.08	19.32%	80.43%	-10.68	2-7
2015-11-19	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 13-19	1347.35	1362.46	43.76%	55.99%	-14.35	2-8
2015-11-29	Oakland Raiders	L 21-24	1333.00	1416.03	41.97%	57.78%	-9.73	2-9
2015-12-06	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 42-39	1323.27	1360.16	48.54%	51.21%	+11.87	3-9
2015-12-13	@ New York Jets	L 8-30	1335.14	1500.44	24.68%	75.07%	-15.51	3-10
2015-12-20	@ New England Patriots	L 16-33	1319.63	1709.24	8.27%	91.48%	-4.57	3-11
2015-12-27	Houston Texans	L 6-34	1315.06	1492.39	29.59%	70.16%	-20.98	3-12
2016-01-03	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 24-30	1294.08	1445.00	26.25%	73.50%	-8.62	3-13
2015-09-13	Miami Dolphins	L 10-17	1401.39	1488.87	41.35%	58.40%	-14.65	0-1
2015-09-20	St. Louis Rams	W 24-10	1386.74	1499.38	37.89%	61.86%	+30.97	1-1
2015-09-24	@ New York Giants	L 21-32	1417.71	1465.45	39.20%	60.55%	-17.41	1-2
2015-10-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 23-20	1400.30	1521.03	36.80%	62.95%	+14.59	2-2
2015-10-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 19-25	1414.89	1550.07	28.04%	71.70%	-9.21	2-3
2015-10-18	@ New York Jets	L 20-34	1405.68	1507.61	32.06%	67.69%	-16.07	2-4
2015-10-25	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-30	1389.61	1387.34	54.17%	45.58%	+6.10	3-4
2015-11-08	@ New England Patriots	L 10-27	1395.71	1726.65	11.21%	88.54%	-6.20	3-5
2015-11-15	New Orleans Saints	W 47-14	1389.51	1462.72	43.35%	56.40%	+43.35	4-5
2015-11-22	@ Carolina Panthers	L 16-44	1432.86	1643.75	20.13%	79.62%	-14.28	4-6
2015-11-29	New York Giants	W 20-14	1418.58	1518.08	39.68%	60.07%	+19.69	5-6
2015-12-07	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-19	1438.27	1464.45	50.08%	49.67%	-11.61	5-7
2015-12-13	@ Chicago Bears	W 24-21	1426.66	1432.89	45.02%	54.73%	+12.68	6-7
2015-12-20	Buffalo Bills	W 35-25	1439.34	1516.73	42.76%	56.98%	+24.11	7-7
2015-12-26	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 38-24	1463.45	1474.88	44.28%	55.47%	+27.77	8-7
2016-01-03	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-23	1491.22	1431.50	54.48%	45.27%	+6.70	9-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2016-01-16	Green Bay Packers	W 26-20	1671.00	1613.08	62.07%	37.93%	+12.40	1-0
2016-01-24	@ Carolina Panthers	L 15-49	1683.40	1702.90	43.26%	56.74%	-33.67	1-1
2016-01-17	Seattle Seahawks	W 31-24	1685.41	1709.64	50.49%	49.51%	+17.49	1-0
2016-01-24	Arizona Cardinals	W 49-15	1702.90	1683.40	56.74%	43.26%	+33.67	2-0
2016-02-07	@ Denver Broncos	L 10-24	1736.57	1656.46	61.33%	38.67%	-30.63	2-1
2016-01-09	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-18	1623.90	1631.14	52.93%	47.07%	-9.99	0-1
2016-01-17	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 23-16	1630.27	1641.13	52.41%	47.59%	+16.81	1-0
2016-01-24	New England Patriots	W 20-18	1647.08	1672.59	50.30%	49.70%	+9.38	2-0
2016-02-07	Carolina Panthers	W 24-10	1656.46	1736.57	38.67%	61.33%	+30.64	3-0
2016-01-10	@ Washington Redskins	W 35-18	1590.66	1497.92	59.26%	40.74%	+22.42	1-0
2016-01-16	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-26	1613.08	1671.00	37.93%	62.07%	-12.40	1-1
2016-01-09	Kansas City Chiefs	L 0-30	1530.88	1658.30	36.02%	63.98%	-26.34	0-1
2016-01-09	@ Houston Texans	W 30-0	1658.30	1530.88	63.98%	36.02%	+26.34	1-0
2016-01-16	@ New England Patriots	L 20-27	1684.64	1654.82	50.32%	49.68%	-17.77	1-1
2016-01-10	Seattle Seahawks	L 9-10	1593.23	1704.54	38.18%	61.82%	-5.10	0-1
2016-01-16	Kansas City Chiefs	W 27-20	1654.82	1684.64	49.68%	50.32%	+17.77	1-0
2016-01-24	@ Denver Broncos	L 18-20	1672.59	1647.08	49.70%	50.30%	-9.38	1-1
2016-01-09	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 18-16	1631.14	1623.90	47.07%	52.93%	+9.99	1-0
2016-01-17	@ Denver Broncos	L 16-23	1641.13	1630.27	47.59%	52.41%	-16.81	1-1
2016-01-10	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 10-9	1704.54	1593.23	61.82%	38.18%	+5.10	1-0
2016-01-17	@ Carolina Panthers	L 24-31	1709.64	1685.41	49.51%	50.49%	-17.49	1-1
2016-01-10	Green Bay Packers	L 18-35	1497.92	1590.66	40.74%	59.26%	-22.42	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2015-12-06	15.16%	Philadelphia Eagles	1451.99	35	@ New England Patriots	1722.63	28
2	2016-01-03	15.58%	@ Miami Dolphins	1370.11	20	New England Patriots	1690.43	10
3	2015-12-27	17.45%	St. Louis Rams	1444.70	23	@ Seattle Seahawks	1686.21	17
4	2015-12-13	17.87%	Oakland Raiders	1411.26	15	@ Denver Broncos	1647.76	12
5	2015-11-15	19.87%	Detroit Lions	1396.96	18	@ Green Bay Packers	1610.70	16
6	2015-11-16	21.93%	Houston Texans	1453.38	10	@ Cincinnati Bengals	1645.43	6
7	2015-11-26	22.00%	Chicago Bears	1431.93	17	@ Green Bay Packers	1623.31	13
8	2015-12-27	22.92%	@ Atlanta Falcons	1465.20	20	Carolina Panthers	1702.67	13
9	2015-11-01	25.50%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1381.24	23	@ Atlanta Falcons	1538.97	20
10	2015-11-08	26.02%	Tennessee Titans	1333.87	34	@ New Orleans Saints	1486.88	28
11	2015-11-22	26.30%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1394.77	45	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1545.32	17
12	2015-10-25	27.34%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1340.65	34	Buffalo Bills	1509.53	31
13	2015-11-15	27.57%	Jacksonville Jaguars	1348.81	22	@ Baltimore Ravens	1488.08	20
14	2015-10-04	27.66%	St. Louis Rams	1455.05	24	@ Arizona Cardinals	1593.56	22
15	2015-12-27	27.84%	@ Baltimore Ravens	1444.96	20	Pittsburgh Steelers	1637.21	17
16	2015-12-27	28.42%	@ New York Jets	1526.54	26	New England Patriots	1713.81	20
17	2015-11-08	29.69%	@ Indianapolis Colts	1485.25	27	Denver Broncos	1661.75	24
18	2015-10-11	30.27%	Cleveland Browns	1407.24	33	@ Baltimore Ravens	1523.67	30
19	2015-10-11	30.69%	Chicago Bears	1386.89	18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1499.87	17
20	2015-11-15	30.83%	Kansas City Chiefs	1533.65	29	@ Denver Broncos	1645.52	13
21	2015-11-15	32.11%	Chicago Bears	1393.35	37	@ St. Louis Rams	1494.90	13
22	2015-11-15	32.42%	Miami Dolphins	1455.19	20	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1554.33	19
23	2015-09-20	32.57%	@ Oakland Raiders	1387.12	37	Baltimore Ravens	1540.29	33
24	2015-12-13	32.95%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1348.29	51	Indianapolis Colts	1498.49	16
25	2015-09-13	33.11%	@ St. Louis Rams	1483.94	34	Seattle Seahawks	1632.87	31

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2015-12-13	52.87	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	51	1348.29	32.95%	Indianapolis Colts	16	1498.49	66.80%
2	2015-11-22	52.00	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	45	1394.77	26.30%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	17	1545.32	73.45%
3	2016-01-03	45.30	Seattle Seahawks	36	1659.24	37.93%	@ Arizona Cardinals	6	1716.30	61.82%
4	2015-11-15	44.33	Chicago Bears	37	1393.35	32.11%	@ St. Louis Rams	13	1494.90	67.64%
5	2015-11-15	43.35	@ Washington Redskins	47	1389.51	43.35%	New Orleans Saints	14	1462.72	56.40%
6	2015-11-26	41.33	@ Detroit Lions	45	1426.61	44.28%	Philadelphia Eagles	14	1493.32	55.47%
7	2015-09-13	41.31	Tennessee Titans	42	1387.40	41.40%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1419.24	58.35%
8	2015-11-15	36.88	Kansas City Chiefs	29	1533.65	30.83%	@ Denver Broncos	13	1645.52	68.92%
9	2016-01-03	35.61	@ Miami Dolphins	20	1370.11	15.58%	New England Patriots	10	1690.43	84.17%
10	2015-10-18	33.95	Miami Dolphins	38	1433.01	51.81%	@ Tennessee Titans	10	1391.92	47.94%
11	2015-09-27	33.91	Buffalo Bills	41	1524.30	51.00%	@ Miami Dolphins	14	1488.86	48.75%
12	2016-01-24 *	33.67	@ Carolina Panthers	49	1702.90	56.74%	Arizona Cardinals	15	1683.40	43.26%
13	2015-12-06	33.57	Seattle Seahawks	38	1624.30	54.71%	@ Minnesota Vikings	7	1562.97	45.04%
14	2015-12-06	33.50	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	45	1557.47	57.46%	Indianapolis Colts	10	1531.99	42.29%
15	2015-10-04	32.16	New York Giants	24	1482.86	35.48%	@ Buffalo Bills	10	1558.20	64.27%
16	2015-09-27	32.04	@ Arizona Cardinals	47	1561.53	61.93%	San Francisco 49ers	7	1503.69	37.82%
17	2015-09-20	31.30	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	43	1528.93	52.97%	San Francisco 49ers	18	1534.99	46.78%
18	2015-11-01	31.17	@ Kansas City Chiefs	45	1502.49	60.41%	Detroit Lions	10	1428.13	39.34%
19	2015-09-20	30.97	@ Washington Redskins	24	1386.74	37.89%	St. Louis Rams	10	1499.38	61.86%
20	2016-02-07 *	30.64	@ Denver Broncos	24	1656.46	38.67%	Carolina Panthers	10	1736.57	61.33%
21	2015-12-06	29.95	Philadelphia Eagles	35	1451.99	15.16%	@ New England Patriots	28	1722.63	84.59%
22	2015-12-27	29.76	@ Minnesota Vikings	49	1542.44	60.47%	New York Giants	17	1495.29	39.28%
23	2015-12-13	29.69	@ Cleveland Browns	24	1330.80	40.45%	San Francisco 49ers	10	1424.78	59.30%
24	2015-12-13	29.56	Pittsburgh Steelers	33	1590.97	38.46%	@ Cincinnati Bengals	20	1644.14	61.29%
25	2015-09-27	29.55	Atlanta Falcons	39	1491.78	33.13%	@ Dallas Cowboys	28	1585.24	66.62%