2016 NFL Season

256 regular-season games · 12 playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

New England Patriots

5th Super Bowl

Last Title: 2014

Runner-Up

Atlanta Falcons

2nd SB App.

Last Appearance: 1998

Biggest Overachiever

Oakland Raiders

3.80 wins above expected

12 wins · 8.20 expected wins

Biggest Disappointment

Cleveland Browns

3.31 wins below expected

1 wins · 4.31 expected wins

Final Standings

Regular-season records by division. The vsSim column shows actual wins minus the simulation's mean wins — positive means the team overachieved, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	New England Patriots Division	14	2	.875	—	441	250	+191	10.98	+3.02
2	Miami Dolphins Playoffs	10	6	.625	4	363	380	-17	7.29	+2.71
3	Buffalo Bills	7	9	.438	7	399	378	+21	8.81	-1.81
4	New York Jets	5	11	.312	9	275	409	-134	6.84	-1.84

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Pittsburgh Steelers Division	11	5	0	.688	—	399	327	+72	9.75	+1.25
2	Baltimore Ravens	8	8	0	.500	3	343	321	+22	8.15	-0.15
3	Cincinnati Bengals	6	9	1	.406	4.5	325	315	+10	8.12	-1.62
4	Cleveland Browns	1	15	0	.062	10	264	452	-188	4.31	-3.31

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Houston Texans Division	9	7	.562	—	279	328	-49	8.35	+0.65
2	Tennessee Titans	9	7	.562	—	381	378	+3	6.95	+2.05
3	Indianapolis Colts	8	8	.500	1	411	392	+19	7.78	+0.22
4	Jacksonville Jaguars	3	13	.188	6	318	400	-82	5.04	-2.04

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Oakland Raiders Division	12	4	.750	—	416	385	+31	8.20	+3.80
2	Kansas City Chiefs Playoffs	12	4	.750	—	389	311	+78	10.30	+1.70
3	Denver Broncos	9	7	.562	3	333	297	+36	9.61	-0.61
4	San Diego Chargers	5	11	.312	7	410	423	-13	7.26	-2.26

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Dallas Cowboys Division	13	3	0	.812	—	421	306	+115	9.86	+3.14
2	New York Giants Playoffs	11	5	0	.688	2	310	284	+26	8.18	+2.82
3	Washington Redskins	8	7	1	.531	4.5	396	383	+13	8.00	+0.50
4	Philadelphia Eagles	7	9	0	.438	6	367	331	+36	7.73	-0.73

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Green Bay Packers Division	10	6	.625	—	432	388	+44	9.03	+0.97
2	Detroit Lions Playoffs	9	7	.562	1	346	358	-12	8.26	+0.74
3	Minnesota Vikings	8	8	.500	2	327	307	+20	9.32	-1.32
4	Chicago Bears	3	13	.188	7	279	399	-120	5.95	-2.95

#	Team	W	L	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Atlanta Falcons Division	11	5	.688	—	540	406	+134	9.01	+1.99
2	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9	7	.562	2	354	369	-15	6.61	+2.39
3	New Orleans Saints	7	9	.438	4	469	454	+15	6.84	+0.16
4	Carolina Panthers	6	10	.375	5	369	402	-33	8.24	-2.24

#	Team	W	L	T	Pct	GB	PF	PA	PD	SimW	vsSim
1	Seattle Seahawks Division	10	5	1	.656	—	354	292	+62	10.72	-0.22
2	Arizona Cardinals	7	8	1	.469	3	418	362	+56	9.10	-1.60
3	Los Angeles Rams	4	12	0	.250	6.5	224	394	-170	6.48	-2.48
4	San Francisco 49ers	2	14	0	.125	8.5	309	480	-171	4.95	-2.95

Playoff Bracket

The path each team took through the postseason — reconstructed from actual playoff games, not the simulation.

AFC

Wild Card Round

Houston Texans 27

Oakland Raiders 14

Jan 7

Pittsburgh Steelers 30

Miami Dolphins 12

Jan 8

Divisional Round

New England Patriots 34

Houston Texans 16

Jan 14

Pittsburgh Steelers 18

Kansas City Chiefs 16

Jan 15

Conference Championship

New England Patriots 36

Pittsburgh Steelers 17

Jan 22

NFC

Wild Card Round

Seattle Seahawks 26

Detroit Lions 6

Jan 7

Green Bay Packers 38

New York Giants 13

Jan 8

Divisional Round

Atlanta Falcons 36

Seattle Seahawks 20

Jan 14

Green Bay Packers 34

Dallas Cowboys 31

Jan 15

Conference Championship

Atlanta Falcons 44

Green Bay Packers 21

Jan 22

Super Bowl

New England Patriots 34

Atlanta Falcons 28

Feb 5

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort; use the dropdown to filter by Conference or Division. Luck is the team's actual outcome minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Conference	Division	Elo	Actual	Avg. Wins	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
New England Patriots	AFC	AFC East	1745	14	10.98	+3.02	98.52%	3	8	10	11	12	14	16
Kansas City Chiefs	AFC	AFC West	1677	12	10.30	+1.70	89.47%	4	7	9	10	12	13	16
Dallas Cowboys	NFC	NFC East	1660	13	9.86	+3.14	98.01%	3	7	9	10	11	13	16
Atlanta Falcons	NFC	NFC South	1652	11	9.01	+1.99	91.05%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Pittsburgh Steelers	AFC	AFC North	1630	11	9.75	+1.25	83.30%	3	7	8	10	11	13	16
Green Bay Packers	NFC	NFC North	1609	10	9.03	+0.97	79.08%	2	6	8	9	10	12	15
Seattle Seahawks	NFC	NFC West	1599	10.5	10.72	-0.22	45.67%	3	8	9	11	12	14	16
Oakland Raiders	AFC	AFC West	1570	12	8.20	+3.80	98.98%	1	5	7	8	9	11	14
Denver Broncos	AFC	AFC West	1569	9	9.61	-0.61	48.86%	2	6	8	10	11	13	15
New York Giants	NFC	NFC East	1549	11	8.18	+2.82	96.42%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Arizona Cardinals	NFC	NFC West	1541	7.5	9.10	-1.60	21.41%	2	6	8	9	10	12	16
Indianapolis Colts	AFC	AFC South	1521	8	7.78	+0.22	66.38%	1	5	6	8	9	11	15
Cincinnati Bengals	AFC	AFC North	1519	6.5	8.12	-1.62	21.21%	2	5	7	8	9	11	15
Washington Redskins	NFC	NFC East	1518	8.5	8.00	+0.50	61.48%	0	5	7	8	9	11	15
Miami Dolphins	AFC	AFC East	1516	10	7.29	+2.71	95.91%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
Carolina Panthers	NFC	NFC South	1511	6	8.24	-2.24	19.51%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	NFC	NFC South	1507	9	6.61	+2.39	94.01%	1	3	5	7	8	10	13
Detroit Lions	NFC	NFC North	1505	9	8.26	+0.74	75.96%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
New Orleans Saints	NFC	NFC South	1491	7	6.84	+0.16	65.35%	1	4	5	7	8	10	14
Baltimore Ravens	AFC	AFC North	1489	8	8.15	-0.15	58.71%	1	5	7	8	9	11	15
Philadelphia Eagles	NFC	NFC East	1487	7	7.73	-0.73	47.41%	1	4	6	8	9	11	16
Minnesota Vikings	NFC	NFC North	1485	8	9.32	-1.32	34.63%	2	6	8	9	11	12	15
Houston Texans	AFC	AFC South	1483	9	8.35	+0.65	74.35%	1	5	7	8	10	11	16
Buffalo Bills	AFC	AFC East	1463	7	8.81	-1.81	25.02%	1	6	7	9	10	12	16
Tennessee Titans	AFC	AFC South	1439	9	6.95	+2.05	92.13%	0	4	6	7	8	10	13
San Diego Chargers	AFC	AFC West	1409	5	7.26	-2.26	18.68%	1	4	6	7	8	10	14
New York Jets	AFC	AFC East	1402	5	6.84	-1.84	25.36%	0	4	5	7	8	10	13
Jacksonville Jaguars	AFC	AFC South	1336	3	5.04	-2.04	21.19%	0	2	4	5	6	8	13
Los Angeles Rams	NFC	NFC West	1310	4	6.48	-2.48	15.83%	0	3	5	6	8	10	14
Chicago Bears	NFC	NFC North	1308	3	5.95	-2.95	9.82%	0	3	5	6	7	9	14
San Francisco 49ers	NFC	NFC West	1255	2	4.95	-2.95	8.54%	0	2	4	5	6	8	12
Cleveland Browns	AFC	AFC North	1244	1	4.31	-3.31	4.79%	0	2	3	4	5	7	10

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record (row vs column) and below it the expected number of wins the model predicted based on each individual game's win probability. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than half a win in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin. The first matrix for each division covers within-division games; the second (when shown) covers games against teams outside that division — aggregated by division when there are many opponents, broken out team-by-team when there are few.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Within AFC East

Team	Bills	Dolphins	Patriots	Jets
Buffalo Bills	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New England Patriots	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.6 exp.)
New York Jets	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.4 exp.)	—

AFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Buffalo Bills	2-2 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.8 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)
Miami Dolphins	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.0 exp.)
New England Patriots	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	—	—	—	3-1 (2.8 exp.)
New York Jets	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	—	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)

Within AFC North

Team	Ravens	Bengals	Browns	Steelers
Baltimore Ravens	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.3 exp.)	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Cincinnati Bengals	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)
Cleveland Browns	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.3 exp.)
Pittsburgh Steelers	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.7 exp.)	—

AFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Baltimore Ravens	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	1-3 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	—
Cincinnati Bengals	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-2-1 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	—
Cleveland Browns	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	0-4 (1.1 exp.)	—	—	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	—

Within AFC South

Team	Texans	Colts	Jaguars	Titans
Houston Texans	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Indianapolis Colts	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.7 exp.)
Tennessee Titans	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	—

AFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Houston Texans	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—
Indianapolis Colts	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.8 exp.)	—	—
Jacksonville Jaguars	0-1 (0.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.2 exp.)	—	1-3 (1.3 exp.)	—	—
Tennessee Titans	1-0 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	—	3-1 (1.6 exp.)	—	—

Within AFC West

Team	Broncos	Chiefs	Raiders	Chargers
Denver Broncos	—	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.4 exp.)
Kansas City Chiefs	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	2-0 (1.5 exp.)
Oakland Raiders	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—	2-0 (1.2 exp.)
San Diego Chargers	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	—

AFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Denver Broncos	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	3-1 (2.8 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.5 exp.)	—
Kansas City Chiefs	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	2-2 (2.8 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.6 exp.)	—
Oakland Raiders	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	4-0 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—
San Diego Chargers	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.7 exp.)	3-1 (2.1 exp.)	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	—

Within NFC East

Team	Cowboys	Giants	Eagles	Redskins
Dallas Cowboys	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)
New York Giants	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.0 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.1 exp.)
Washington Redskins	0-2 (0.9 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	2-0 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC East vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC North	NFC South	NFC West
Dallas Cowboys	—	4-0 (2.6 exp.)	—	—	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
New York Giants	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (1.8 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)
Philadelphia Eagles	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	—	—	2-2 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)
Washington Redskins	—	2-1-1 (2.0 exp.)	—	—	3-1 (2.2 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC North

Team	Bears	Lions	Packers	Vikings
Chicago Bears	—	1-1 (0.6 exp.)	0-2 (0.5 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
Detroit Lions	1-1 (1.4 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	2-0 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.1 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.1 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	0-2 (1.1 exp.)	1-1 (0.9 exp.)	—

NFC North vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC South	NFC West
Chicago Bears	—	—	0-4 (1.8 exp.)	—	0-4 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Detroit Lions	—	—	2-2 (2.4 exp.)	—	2-2 (1.7 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)
Green Bay Packers	—	—	2-2 (2.5 exp.)	—	2-2 (2.0 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)
Minnesota Vikings	—	—	3-1 (2.7 exp.)	—	1-3 (2.2 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	1-0 (0.5 exp.)

Within NFC South

Team	Falcons	Panthers	Saints	Buccaneers
Atlanta Falcons	—	2-0 (1.0 exp.)	2-0 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.2 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	0-2 (1.0 exp.)	—	1-1 (1.2 exp.)	0-2 (1.2 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	0-2 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	—	1-1 (0.9 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1-1 (0.8 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	1-1 (1.1 exp.)	—

NFC South vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC West
Atlanta Falcons	—	—	—	2-2 (1.9 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.5 exp.)
Carolina Panthers	—	—	—	1-3 (1.9 exp.)	1-0 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	3-1 (2.0 exp.)
New Orleans Saints	—	—	—	1-3 (1.6 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	4-0 (1.8 exp.)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	—	—	—	2-2 (1.4 exp.)	0-1 (0.3 exp.)	1-0 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (1.6 exp.)

Within NFC West

Team	Cardinals	Rams	49ers	Seahawks
Arizona Cardinals	—	1-1 (1.3 exp.)	2-0 (1.4 exp.)	1-0-1 (0.7 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-1 (0.7 exp.)	—	0-2 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (0.5 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-2 (0.6 exp.)	2-0 (0.8 exp.)	—	0-2 (0.4 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	0-1-1 (1.2 exp.)	1-1 (1.5 exp.)	2-0 (1.6 exp.)	—

NFC West vs. Other Divisions

Team	AFC East	AFC North	AFC South	AFC West	NFC East	NFC North	NFC South
Arizona Cardinals	1-3 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	1-3 (2.3 exp.)
Los Angeles Rams	1-3 (1.5 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	1-3 (1.6 exp.)
San Francisco 49ers	0-4 (1.0 exp.)	—	—	—	0-1 (0.5 exp.)	0-1 (0.4 exp.)	0-4 (1.3 exp.)
Seattle Seahawks	4-0 (2.3 exp.)	—	—	—	1-0 (0.7 exp.)	0-1 (0.6 exp.)	2-2 (2.7 exp.)

Scoring Distribution

Histograms of points scored and allowed, a home-vs-away score scatter (marker size grows with how often that exact score happened), and summary stats — all driven by the team filter below. Default view is league-wide.

Filter by team:

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	—
Mean allowed	—
StdDev scored	—
StdDev allowed	—
Correlation (home vs away score)	—
Sample size (games)	—

Actual vs. Point Differential

How points translated into wins. Teams above the cluster overperformed their points differential (often called Pythagorean luck), while teams below underperformed. Hover for exact values.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

The teams furthest from where the simulation said they'd land — a fast read of the Luck column on top of the main season summary above.

Top Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Oakland Raiders	12	8.20	+3.80
2	Dallas Cowboys	13	9.86	+3.14
3	New England Patriots	14	10.98	+3.02
4	New York Giants	11	8.18	+2.82
5	Miami Dolphins	10	7.29	+2.71

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	Luck
1	Cleveland Browns	1	4.31	-3.31
2	San Francisco 49ers	2	4.95	-2.95
3	Chicago Bears	3	5.95	-2.95
4	Los Angeles Rams	4	6.48	-2.48
5	San Diego Chargers	5	7.26	-2.26

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/T/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dallas Cowboys	11	Sep 18 – Dec 1	1 in 475
2	Miami Dolphins	6	Oct 16 – Nov 27	1 in 131
3	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	5	Nov 13 – Dec 11	1 in 116
4	Green Bay Packers	6	Nov 28 – Jan 1	1 in 63
5	Oakland Raiders	6	Oct 23 – Dec 4	1 in 55

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	San Francisco 49ers	13	Sep 18 – Dec 18	1 in 165
2	Cleveland Browns	14	Sep 11 – Dec 18	1 in 124
3	Minnesota Vikings	4	Oct 23 – Nov 13	1 in 59
4	Carolina Panthers	4	Sep 25 – Oct 16	1 in 46
5	Los Angeles Rams	7	Nov 20 – Jan 1	1 in 38

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we add up those probabilities over home games and compare to actual home wins — and do the same on the road. The bar height is (home wins above expected) minus (road wins above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real Coors-style edge. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmaps

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between divisions, leagues, and the overall NFL view. Rows are sorted by the simulation's average finish (best at top).

Team	1	2	3	4
New England Patriots	72.48%	19.82%	6.24%	1.46%
Buffalo Bills	18.96%	43.34%	25.04%	12.66%
Miami Dolphins	5.23%	20.91%	37.05%	36.81%
New York Jets	3.33%	15.93%	31.67%	49.07%

Team	1	2	3	4
Pittsburgh Steelers	57.96%	27.34%	13.30%	1.40%
Cincinnati Bengals	21.41%	33.90%	37.99%	6.70%
Baltimore Ravens	20.30%	35.97%	36.61%	7.12%
Cleveland Browns	0.33%	2.79%	12.10%	84.78%

Team	1	2	3	4
Houston Texans	45.46%	29.98%	18.51%	6.05%
Indianapolis Colts	32.63%	33.08%	24.02%	10.27%
Tennessee Titans	18.32%	27.34%	35.70%	18.64%
Jacksonville Jaguars	3.59%	9.60%	21.77%	65.04%

Team	1	2	3	4
Kansas City Chiefs	50.17%	29.30%	14.56%	5.97%
Denver Broncos	31.82%	34.66%	22.40%	11.12%
Oakland Raiders	13.01%	23.48%	34.89%	28.62%
San Diego Chargers	5.00%	12.56%	28.15%	54.29%

Team	1	2	3	4
Dallas Cowboys	52.25%	25.57%	14.64%	7.54%
New York Giants	18.64%	27.30%	27.80%	26.26%
Washington Redskins	15.75%	24.89%	28.78%	30.58%
Philadelphia Eagles	13.36%	22.24%	28.78%	35.62%

Team	1	2	3	4
Minnesota Vikings	40.39%	31.75%	21.34%	6.52%
Green Bay Packers	36.25%	32.19%	23.16%	8.40%
Detroit Lions	20.80%	28.41%	35.21%	15.58%
Chicago Bears	2.56%	7.65%	20.29%	69.50%

Team	1	2	3	4
Atlanta Falcons	47.85%	28.65%	15.79%	7.71%
Carolina Panthers	31.40%	32.43%	22.33%	13.84%
New Orleans Saints	11.39%	19.83%	31.52%	37.26%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	9.36%	19.09%	30.36%	41.19%

Team	1	2	3	4
Seattle Seahawks	69.28%	25.57%	4.56%	0.59%
Arizona Cardinals	26.44%	53.07%	16.86%	3.63%
Los Angeles Rams	3.64%	16.67%	51.74%	27.95%
San Francisco 49ers	0.64%	4.69%	26.84%	67.83%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
New England Patriots	32.30%	20.65%	13.55%	9.61%	6.54%	5.07%	3.76%	2.61%	1.94%	1.40%	1.10%	0.59%	0.45%	0.25%	0.14%	0.04%
Kansas City Chiefs	19.21%	17.59%	13.70%	10.65%	9.03%	6.89%	5.49%	4.47%	4.01%	3.11%	2.14%	1.75%	0.85%	0.70%	0.30%	0.11%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.44%	14.28%	13.58%	11.31%	9.13%	7.66%	6.76%	5.96%	5.19%	3.89%	3.37%	2.42%	1.53%	0.84%	0.47%	0.17%
Denver Broncos	11.99%	11.87%	10.97%	10.29%	9.97%	8.73%	7.60%	6.39%	5.87%	4.61%	3.87%	2.77%	2.60%	1.55%	0.70%	0.22%
Buffalo Bills	5.08%	6.88%	7.94%	9.36%	9.07%	9.57%	9.52%	8.18%	7.50%	6.77%	5.87%	4.93%	3.79%	3.31%	1.68%	0.55%
Houston Texans	3.75%	5.36%	7.47%	9.09%	9.05%	8.72%	8.43%	8.22%	7.22%	7.21%	6.52%	6.46%	5.31%	3.59%	2.33%	1.27%
Baltimore Ravens	2.68%	4.62%	5.90%	6.85%	7.49%	8.12%	8.88%	8.88%	8.35%	7.71%	7.74%	7.27%	6.01%	4.82%	2.89%	1.79%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.98%	4.69%	5.98%	6.26%	7.89%	8.13%	8.06%	8.42%	8.24%	8.19%	8.29%	7.76%	5.95%	4.73%	2.81%	1.62%
Oakland Raiders	3.46%	4.53%	5.85%	6.38%	7.61%	8.10%	7.73%	7.84%	8.34%	8.18%	7.24%	7.32%	6.49%	5.56%	3.62%	1.75%
Indianapolis Colts	1.94%	3.37%	5.39%	6.76%	6.35%	7.48%	7.62%	9.22%	8.39%	8.55%	7.87%	7.44%	7.12%	5.56%	4.49%	2.45%
Miami Dolphins	0.98%	1.85%	2.66%	3.37%	4.47%	5.46%	6.79%	7.21%	8.48%	8.96%	9.37%	9.32%	10.02%	9.89%	7.40%	3.77%
San Diego Chargers	1.07%	1.66%	2.61%	3.29%	4.04%	5.31%	6.07%	6.43%	7.66%	8.47%	9.43%	10.72%	11.25%	10.53%	7.44%	4.02%
Tennessee Titans	0.51%	1.39%	2.38%	3.47%	4.41%	5.07%	6.33%	6.85%	7.56%	8.35%	9.86%	10.00%	10.82%	9.35%	7.94%	5.71%
New York Jets	0.58%	1.06%	1.70%	2.71%	3.77%	4.30%	4.94%	5.98%	6.82%	8.67%	9.02%	10.05%	10.52%	13.97%	9.65%	6.26%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.03%	0.18%	0.25%	0.50%	0.96%	1.01%	1.53%	2.29%	2.94%	3.86%	5.21%	6.84%	10.04%	13.59%	24.39%	26.38%
Cleveland Browns	—	0.02%	0.07%	0.10%	0.22%	0.38%	0.49%	1.05%	1.49%	2.07%	3.10%	4.36%	7.25%	11.76%	23.75%	43.89%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Seattle Seahawks	30.79%	18.72%	13.10%	9.56%	7.18%	5.52%	4.70%	3.52%	2.15%	1.62%	1.17%	1.00%	0.45%	0.31%	0.15%	0.06%
Dallas Cowboys	15.57%	14.87%	12.57%	10.85%	9.24%	7.27%	6.37%	5.68%	4.20%	3.79%	2.88%	2.57%	1.87%	1.39%	0.67%	0.21%
Minnesota Vikings	10.15%	11.06%	10.55%	9.83%	9.27%	8.79%	8.03%	6.25%	6.67%	5.39%	4.32%	3.66%	2.53%	1.95%	1.09%	0.46%
Arizona Cardinals	8.47%	9.17%	8.76%	9.24%	9.25%	9.73%	9.62%	8.22%	6.33%	5.52%	4.50%	4.19%	2.92%	1.99%	1.31%	0.78%
Green Bay Packers	8.46%	9.17%	9.61%	10.02%	9.18%	8.59%	8.08%	7.02%	6.68%	6.00%	5.45%	3.86%	2.93%	2.38%	1.81%	0.76%
Atlanta Falcons	8.12%	8.94%	10.35%	9.91%	9.36%	8.44%	7.80%	7.68%	6.40%	5.84%	4.92%	4.02%	3.21%	2.52%	1.56%	0.93%
Carolina Panthers	3.73%	5.18%	6.89%	7.63%	7.94%	7.67%	8.57%	8.86%	7.53%	7.02%	6.79%	6.20%	5.43%	4.82%	3.47%	2.27%
Detroit Lions	3.30%	5.40%	6.17%	7.06%	7.47%	8.42%	7.63%	8.10%	8.50%	8.06%	7.51%	6.25%	5.71%	4.49%	4.15%	1.78%
New York Giants	3.43%	4.98%	6.01%	6.14%	7.13%	8.29%	7.89%	8.16%	7.96%	7.94%	7.22%	6.77%	6.13%	5.64%	4.05%	2.26%
Washington Redskins	3.10%	4.83%	5.34%	5.59%	7.10%	6.63%	6.96%	7.19%	8.28%	8.54%	8.09%	7.20%	7.16%	6.81%	4.68%	2.50%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.70%	3.57%	4.21%	4.99%	5.74%	6.67%	6.78%	7.10%	8.20%	8.20%	8.48%	7.86%	8.41%	7.10%	6.42%	3.57%
New Orleans Saints	0.82%	1.42%	2.38%	3.17%	3.59%	3.95%	5.29%	6.30%	6.58%	7.99%	8.79%	9.65%	10.38%	10.44%	10.88%	8.37%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.61%	1.13%	1.79%	2.61%	2.95%	3.93%	4.30%	5.86%	6.80%	7.72%	8.71%	9.34%	10.24%	11.18%	12.21%	10.62%
Los Angeles Rams	0.51%	0.93%	1.42%	2.02%	2.62%	3.29%	4.38%	5.28%	6.41%	7.58%	9.15%	10.70%	11.39%	11.52%	10.85%	11.95%
Chicago Bears	0.21%	0.55%	0.71%	1.04%	1.50%	2.00%	2.55%	3.24%	4.73%	5.56%	7.07%	9.09%	12.14%	14.83%	17.74%	17.04%
San Francisco 49ers	0.03%	0.08%	0.14%	0.34%	0.48%	0.81%	1.05%	1.54%	2.58%	3.23%	4.95%	7.64%	9.10%	12.63%	18.96%	36.44%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	17	18	19	20	21	22	23	24	25	26	27	28	29	30	31	32
New England Patriots	20.22%	13.80%	11.09%	8.98%	7.02%	5.83%	5.07%	4.09%	3.41%	3.45%	2.77%	2.18%	1.94%	1.64%	1.46%	1.15%	1.17%	0.94%	0.72%	0.65%	0.55%	0.44%	0.29%	0.36%	0.16%	0.20%	0.15%	0.07%	0.10%	0.05%	0.04%	0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	16.27%	13.55%	9.61%	8.97%	6.79%	6.89%	4.85%	4.74%	4.03%	3.60%	3.06%	2.54%	2.42%	2.03%	1.92%	1.82%	1.21%	0.98%	0.87%	0.81%	0.60%	0.64%	0.57%	0.41%	0.22%	0.19%	0.14%	0.13%	0.07%	0.04%	0.01%	0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	10.77%	10.25%	8.93%	7.80%	7.01%	6.58%	5.73%	5.02%	4.44%	3.97%	3.74%	3.56%	2.72%	2.75%	2.15%	2.10%	2.08%	1.77%	1.59%	1.44%	1.18%	1.08%	0.82%	0.52%	0.57%	0.35%	0.43%	0.27%	0.16%	0.10%	0.09%	0.03%
Dallas Cowboys	7.23%	8.00%	7.64%	7.15%	6.41%	6.34%	5.65%	5.35%	4.50%	4.47%	4.02%	3.86%	3.15%	2.98%	3.09%	2.73%	2.45%	2.02%	2.14%	1.74%	1.40%	1.52%	1.24%	1.20%	0.99%	0.76%	0.70%	0.57%	0.32%	0.22%	0.16%	—
Pittsburgh Steelers	7.40%	7.02%	7.64%	6.72%	6.34%	6.04%	5.94%	5.11%	4.85%	4.34%	3.69%	3.79%	3.40%	3.24%	3.26%	3.21%	2.65%	2.42%	1.88%	1.99%	1.76%	1.53%	1.37%	1.19%	0.81%	0.87%	0.45%	0.50%	0.21%	0.17%	0.15%	0.06%
Denver Broncos	6.22%	6.62%	5.97%	5.78%	6.11%	5.17%	5.56%	5.14%	5.22%	4.26%	4.41%	3.78%	3.97%	3.99%	3.29%	2.69%	2.94%	2.86%	2.41%	2.19%	1.81%	1.90%	1.68%	1.21%	1.17%	1.09%	0.89%	0.65%	0.46%	0.27%	0.16%	0.13%
Minnesota Vikings	4.41%	5.51%	5.61%	5.22%	5.28%	5.33%	5.12%	4.90%	5.17%	4.38%	4.67%	4.17%	4.15%	3.81%	3.51%	3.12%	3.31%	3.14%	2.81%	2.75%	2.30%	1.99%	2.09%	1.49%	1.14%	1.39%	1.02%	0.76%	0.74%	0.39%	0.19%	0.13%
Arizona Cardinals	4.16%	4.15%	4.47%	4.67%	4.78%	4.49%	4.52%	4.61%	4.94%	4.66%	4.47%	5.05%	4.52%	4.41%	3.69%	4.23%	3.41%	3.42%	2.89%	2.77%	2.54%	2.03%	2.35%	1.86%	1.47%	1.42%	1.23%	0.94%	0.74%	0.62%	0.37%	0.12%
Green Bay Packers	3.33%	4.14%	4.36%	4.88%	5.14%	5.24%	4.62%	4.87%	5.47%	4.32%	4.57%	4.00%	4.15%	3.85%	3.86%	3.55%	3.21%	3.24%	3.43%	2.57%	2.67%	2.74%	2.28%	1.83%	1.53%	1.28%	1.36%	1.15%	1.08%	0.65%	0.42%	0.21%
Atlanta Falcons	3.42%	4.36%	4.40%	4.74%	4.68%	5.18%	4.82%	4.91%	4.28%	4.71%	4.77%	4.17%	4.09%	4.15%	3.62%	4.16%	3.38%	3.24%	2.97%	2.89%	2.67%	2.42%	2.30%	1.85%	1.79%	1.52%	1.23%	1.12%	0.81%	0.67%	0.40%	0.28%
Buffalo Bills	2.54%	2.72%	3.59%	3.68%	4.36%	4.02%	4.42%	4.90%	4.33%	4.72%	4.17%	4.98%	4.70%	4.45%	3.79%	4.32%	3.53%	4.11%	3.05%	3.51%	3.01%	2.97%	2.34%	2.34%	2.15%	1.84%	1.61%	1.42%	1.06%	0.68%	0.54%	0.15%
Houston Texans	1.67%	1.98%	2.60%	3.01%	3.25%	4.09%	4.03%	4.62%	3.92%	4.56%	4.28%	4.78%	3.98%	4.02%	4.22%	3.98%	3.56%	3.64%	3.35%	3.88%	3.51%	3.30%	3.08%	3.24%	2.71%	2.74%	2.15%	1.83%	1.45%	1.31%	0.67%	0.59%
Carolina Panthers	1.27%	2.13%	2.48%	2.53%	3.12%	3.49%	3.58%	4.17%	4.10%	3.77%	4.20%	4.04%	4.03%	4.33%	4.28%	4.38%	3.84%	3.77%	3.62%	3.92%	3.51%	3.21%	3.26%	2.96%	3.09%	2.82%	2.70%	2.17%	1.94%	1.38%	1.31%	0.60%
Detroit Lions	1.22%	1.86%	2.40%	3.01%	2.83%	3.14%	3.46%	3.73%	3.86%	3.96%	3.80%	4.44%	4.10%	3.91%	4.25%	4.16%	4.29%	3.85%	4.29%	3.58%	4.04%	3.54%	3.48%	3.08%	2.94%	2.72%	2.70%	1.98%	2.25%	1.69%	0.96%	0.48%
Baltimore Ravens	1.14%	1.71%	2.10%	2.59%	2.77%	3.04%	3.71%	3.29%	3.76%	3.73%	4.00%	3.79%	4.40%	4.33%	4.56%	4.41%	4.06%	3.97%	3.73%	3.94%	3.88%	4.02%	3.18%	3.63%	2.99%	3.22%	2.74%	2.17%	1.90%	1.62%	1.08%	0.54%
Cincinnati Bengals	1.25%	1.75%	2.39%	2.66%	2.71%	2.79%	3.29%	3.52%	3.78%	3.70%	3.88%	4.04%	3.90%	4.25%	4.23%	3.99%	3.87%	3.94%	4.27%	4.25%	3.73%	4.40%	3.37%	3.89%	3.16%	3.22%	2.41%	2.30%	1.95%	1.36%	1.13%	0.62%
Oakland Raiders	1.57%	1.90%	2.29%	2.59%	3.03%	2.94%	3.24%	3.23%	3.91%	3.62%	4.42%	3.76%	4.09%	3.80%	3.95%	3.72%	4.22%	3.87%	3.85%	3.93%	3.65%	3.80%	3.65%	3.85%	3.07%	2.89%	2.70%	2.82%	1.84%	1.97%	1.05%	0.78%
New York Giants	1.17%	1.79%	2.25%	2.78%	3.29%	2.97%	3.06%	3.26%	3.41%	3.90%	3.99%	4.32%	4.34%	3.96%	4.05%	3.93%	4.11%	3.99%	4.13%	3.81%	3.75%	3.25%	3.92%	3.14%	3.11%	3.00%	3.07%	2.58%	2.17%	1.66%	1.04%	0.80%
Washington Redskins	1.19%	1.61%	2.17%	2.39%	2.77%	2.82%	3.06%	2.82%	3.61%	3.37%	3.50%	3.55%	3.58%	3.66%	3.52%	3.86%	4.20%	4.02%	4.35%	3.92%	4.11%	4.11%	4.01%	3.79%	3.62%	3.29%	3.53%	3.16%	2.27%	1.97%	1.27%	0.90%
Indianapolis Colts	0.77%	1.07%	1.65%	2.04%	2.48%	2.59%	2.93%	3.49%	2.82%	3.73%	3.15%	3.76%	3.60%	4.00%	4.61%	4.47%	3.84%	4.20%	4.00%	4.68%	4.09%	3.75%	3.80%	3.89%	3.73%	3.72%	2.88%	2.77%	2.20%	2.56%	1.66%	1.07%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.94%	1.28%	1.68%	1.75%	2.23%	2.32%	2.49%	2.75%	2.59%	3.20%	3.29%	3.43%	3.82%	3.18%	3.66%	3.30%	4.29%	4.15%	4.27%	4.11%	4.11%	4.35%	4.15%	4.09%	4.18%	4.18%	3.67%	3.22%	3.20%	3.03%	2.03%	1.06%
Miami Dolphins	0.40%	0.48%	0.98%	1.12%	1.38%	1.37%	1.76%	1.89%	1.82%	2.57%	2.74%	2.52%	3.16%	3.56%	3.51%	3.92%	4.10%	4.12%	4.54%	4.51%	4.52%	4.43%	4.85%	4.60%	5.13%	4.59%	4.88%	4.68%	3.98%	3.70%	2.50%	1.69%
San Diego Chargers	0.39%	0.65%	0.79%	1.12%	1.22%	1.33%	1.61%	1.82%	2.09%	1.98%	2.64%	2.78%	3.19%	3.34%	3.30%	3.36%	3.63%	3.68%	4.38%	4.37%	4.29%	4.82%	5.62%	4.91%	5.27%	5.03%	5.29%	4.63%	3.68%	4.18%	2.75%	1.86%
Tennessee Titans	0.15%	0.28%	0.67%	0.81%	1.09%	1.20%	1.60%	1.74%	1.97%	2.47%	2.16%	2.58%	2.67%	3.43%	3.16%	3.65%	3.32%	4.14%	3.68%	4.69%	4.52%	4.91%	4.49%	5.43%	5.03%	5.65%	4.58%	5.04%	4.52%	4.07%	3.38%	2.92%
New Orleans Saints	0.30%	0.43%	0.55%	0.79%	1.01%	1.33%	1.62%	1.33%	1.90%	1.83%	1.98%	2.04%	2.42%	2.70%	3.04%	3.31%	3.65%	3.56%	3.80%	4.03%	4.68%	4.61%	4.38%	4.83%	5.10%	5.50%	5.43%	5.69%	5.76%	5.09%	4.28%	3.03%
New York Jets	0.18%	0.28%	0.56%	0.71%	0.87%	0.93%	1.39%	1.38%	1.78%	2.01%	2.00%	2.19%	2.48%	2.41%	2.89%	2.91%	3.60%	3.60%	4.11%	4.36%	4.21%	4.75%	4.70%	5.27%	4.83%	5.60%	6.20%	6.46%	5.48%	4.68%	4.02%	3.16%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.23%	0.23%	0.50%	0.62%	0.73%	1.00%	1.07%	1.26%	1.49%	1.72%	2.02%	1.74%	2.16%	2.45%	2.66%	2.98%	3.58%	3.44%	3.80%	3.86%	4.53%	4.40%	4.39%	4.89%	5.71%	4.99%	6.07%	5.93%	6.27%	5.72%	5.50%	4.06%
Los Angeles Rams	0.13%	0.28%	0.41%	0.47%	0.78%	0.72%	0.94%	1.08%	1.27%	1.36%	1.57%	1.79%	2.26%	2.31%	2.62%	2.54%	3.06%	3.48%	3.55%	3.77%	4.54%	4.63%	5.10%	5.41%	5.60%	5.66%	5.80%	6.35%	5.97%	5.78%	6.09%	4.68%
Chicago Bears	0.04%	0.11%	0.18%	0.32%	0.33%	0.51%	0.45%	0.55%	0.57%	0.77%	1.03%	1.19%	1.22%	1.42%	1.74%	1.64%	2.41%	2.56%	2.96%	2.64%	3.75%	3.87%	4.44%	5.15%	6.23%	5.88%	6.97%	7.84%	8.91%	8.52%	8.41%	7.39%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%	0.06%	0.10%	0.19%	0.21%	0.26%	0.42%	0.44%	0.48%	0.44%	0.67%	0.83%	1.10%	1.01%	1.17%	1.60%	1.87%	1.94%	2.51%	2.58%	3.09%	3.74%	4.52%	5.20%	5.80%	7.49%	9.54%	12.18%	14.36%	16.13%
San Francisco 49ers	—	0.04%	0.01%	0.03%	0.06%	0.08%	0.15%	0.11%	0.19%	0.32%	0.37%	0.54%	0.44%	0.58%	0.63%	0.81%	1.23%	1.45%	1.70%	1.57%	2.21%	2.52%	3.67%	3.69%	4.82%	5.22%	6.01%	7.15%	9.74%	10.86%	16.19%	17.61%
Cleveland Browns	—	—	—	0.01%	0.03%	0.04%	0.05%	0.06%	0.10%	0.11%	0.16%	0.20%	0.28%	0.23%	0.38%	0.59%	0.63%	0.83%	0.99%	0.93%	1.37%	1.49%	2.04%	2.26%	3.16%	3.97%	5.21%	6.16%	9.23%	12.81%	17.79%	28.89%

Win Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated results, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed). Click a division in the legend to toggle it.

Playoff Seed Probabilities

Across the 10,000 regular-season simulations, the probability that each team finished as each playoff seed (or missed the playoffs entirely). Rows sorted by likelihood of earning the top seed; teams that more often missed the playoffs sit toward the bottom.

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
New England Patriots	32.30%	21.43%	13.48%	5.27%	8.07%	6.26%	13.19%
Kansas City Chiefs	19.21%	16.84%	10.21%	3.91%	14.63%	10.19%	25.01%
Pittsburgh Steelers	13.44%	15.44%	17.69%	11.39%	5.86%	6.53%	29.65%
Denver Broncos	11.99%	10.58%	6.59%	2.66%	16.94%	11.59%	39.65%
Buffalo Bills	5.08%	6.11%	5.16%	2.61%	13.67%	12.35%	55.02%
Houston Texans	3.75%	5.92%	11.49%	24.30%	2.09%	3.50%	48.95%
Oakland Raiders	3.46%	4.32%	3.48%	1.75%	9.70%	9.64%	67.65%
Cincinnati Bengals	2.98%	4.92%	7.54%	5.97%	6.07%	7.75%	64.77%
Baltimore Ravens	2.68%	4.77%	7.17%	5.68%	6.32%	7.93%	65.45%
Indianapolis Colts	1.94%	3.78%	8.19%	18.72%	1.56%	3.73%	62.08%
San Diego Chargers	1.07%	1.51%	1.63%	0.79%	4.56%	5.68%	84.76%
Miami Dolphins	0.98%	1.73%	1.63%	0.89%	5.10%	6.27%	83.40%
New York Jets	0.58%	0.92%	1.08%	0.75%	3.85%	5.19%	87.63%
Tennessee Titans	0.51%	1.52%	3.90%	12.39%	1.17%	2.68%	77.83%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.03%	0.19%	0.61%	2.76%	0.29%	0.45%	95.67%
Cleveland Browns	—	0.02%	0.15%	0.16%	0.12%	0.26%	99.29%

Team	1 Seed	2 Seed	3 Seed	4 Seed	5 Seed	6 Seed	Missed Playoffs
Seattle Seahawks	30.79%	18.59%	11.78%	8.12%	9.92%	5.79%	15.01%
Dallas Cowboys	15.57%	15.23%	12.68%	8.77%	9.48%	7.91%	30.36%
Minnesota Vikings	10.15%	10.91%	10.45%	8.88%	9.72%	9.25%	40.64%
Arizona Cardinals	8.47%	7.71%	5.54%	4.72%	15.00%	12.23%	46.33%
Green Bay Packers	8.46%	9.40%	10.06%	8.33%	9.62%	9.03%	45.10%
Atlanta Falcons	8.12%	9.72%	12.77%	17.24%	4.53%	5.40%	42.22%
Carolina Panthers	3.73%	5.51%	8.67%	13.49%	4.61%	5.49%	58.50%
New York Giants	3.43%	4.91%	5.62%	4.68%	7.21%	8.76%	65.39%
Detroit Lions	3.30%	5.34%	6.13%	6.03%	7.35%	8.88%	62.97%
Washington Redskins	3.10%	4.72%	4.67%	3.26%	7.75%	7.96%	68.54%
Philadelphia Eagles	2.70%	3.62%	3.84%	3.20%	6.38%	7.09%	73.17%
New Orleans Saints	0.82%	1.58%	3.29%	5.70%	2.00%	3.10%	83.51%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.61%	1.26%	2.47%	5.02%	1.85%	2.88%	85.91%
Los Angeles Rams	0.51%	0.85%	1.07%	1.21%	2.89%	3.61%	89.86%
Chicago Bears	0.21%	0.58%	0.80%	0.97%	1.28%	1.97%	94.19%
San Francisco 49ers	0.03%	0.07%	0.16%	0.38%	0.41%	0.65%	98.30%

Wins Required to Achieve Each Seed

Empirical cumulative distribution: for each seed in each conference, the probability that a team holding that seed finished the regular season with at most a given number of wins. The point where each line passes through 50% is roughly the median wins for that seed.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season — Elo rating, actual wins, simulated final wins, playoff probability, and division-title probability — day by day. Pick a division to see all five charts for its teams.

Elo Through the Playoffs

How each playoff team's Elo rating evolved as the postseason unfolded. Elo Progression traces every team's game-by-game Elo trajectory through their playoff run — teams eliminated early have short lines, deeper runs extend further right; click a team in the legend to isolate it. Net Elo Change summarizes the same data as one bar per team from first playoff game to last, sorted biggest gain to biggest loss.

Stochastic Playoff Outcomes

Across 10,000 simulations starting from preseason Elo, every team had a chance to make the playoffs based on how the regular-season Monte Carlo played out. The default view sums those simulations up: what fraction of them had each team making the playoffs, advancing each round, and winning the title. The round buttons switch to heatmaps showing how often every pair of teams faced off in each round across all sims.

Team	Made Playoffs	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl
New England Patriots	79.72%	79.72%	58.60%	40.71%	27.18%
Kansas City Chiefs	62.08%	62.08%	38.57%	21.06%	12.90%
Dallas Cowboys	57.15%	57.15%	36.68%	22.29%	10.75%
Seattle Seahawks	69.68%	69.68%	39.81%	20.74%	8.77%
Atlanta Falcons	45.28%	45.28%	27.49%	15.91%	7.62%
Pittsburgh Steelers	54.86%	54.86%	28.92%	13.45%	7.21%
Green Bay Packers	39.40%	39.40%	21.45%	11.47%	4.90%
Denver Broncos	41.20%	41.20%	18.58%	7.61%	3.45%
Arizona Cardinals	37.49%	32.90%	14.81%	6.35%	2.33%
Oakland Raiders	24.57%	20.07%	9.18%	3.63%	1.81%
New York Giants	26.27%	20.86%	9.51%	4.02%	1.47%
Carolina Panthers	32.26%	24.75%	9.79%	4.05%	1.37%
Minnesota Vikings	38.30%	36.31%	13.29%	4.80%	1.33%
Washington Redskins	23.64%	18.25%	7.54%	3.31%	1.22%
Indianapolis Colts	32.20%	21.85%	7.77%	2.51%	1.10%
Houston Texans	41.38%	28.18%	8.75%	2.47%	1.04%
Detroit Lions	28.39%	20.33%	7.75%	2.94%	0.92%
Cincinnati Bengals	27.33%	20.28%	7.74%	2.53%	0.90%
Baltimore Ravens	27.10%	19.05%	6.54%	1.75%	0.86%
Buffalo Bills	33.79%	22.59%	6.86%	2.06%	0.80%
Philadelphia Eagles	20.51%	14.48%	5.30%	1.71%	0.45%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	12.22%	7.27%	2.76%	1.16%	0.45%
Miami Dolphins	13.89%	8.35%	3.07%	0.99%	0.40%
New Orleans Saints	14.09%	8.39%	2.97%	1.04%	0.34%
Tennessee Titans	20.14%	9.59%	2.39%	0.60%	0.15%
San Diego Chargers	12.66%	6.12%	1.67%	0.41%	0.13%
New York Jets	10.87%	4.40%	1.08%	0.16%	0.08%
Los Angeles Rams	8.78%	2.84%	0.57%	0.16%	0.06%
Jacksonville Jaguars	4.11%	1.48%	0.27%	0.06%	0.01%
San Francisco 49ers	1.60%	0.45%	0.04%	—	—
Cleveland Browns	0.69%	0.18%	0.01%	—	—
Chicago Bears	5.02%	1.66%	0.24%	0.05%	—

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		1.62%	0.77%	0.02%	1.00%	1.36%	0.88%	0.12%	0.69%	0.53%	0.49%	0.59%	0.77%	1.30%	0.67%	0.79%
Buffalo Bills	1.21%		1.23%	0.07%	0.67%	1.88%	1.12%	0.27%	0.74%	0.22%	0.53%	0.20%	0.59%	1.29%	0.40%	0.98%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.73%	1.78%		0.01%	1.26%	1.38%	0.91%	0.13%	0.80%	0.49%	0.62%	0.58%	0.97%	1.36%	0.72%	0.64%
Cleveland Browns		0.03%			0.04%	0.01%	0.01%				0.01%	0.01%	0.01%	0.03%	0.01%
Denver Broncos	1.40%	1.74%	1.24%	0.05%		3.42%	2.36%	0.45%	1.43%	0.45%	0.59%	0.46%	0.78%	1.80%	0.49%	1.97%
Houston Texans	1.36%	2.83%	1.31%	0.08%	3.07%		1.14%	0.06%	1.53%	1.04%	0.63%	0.98%	1.63%	1.05%	1.07%	0.73%
Indianapolis Colts	1.04%	2.26%	1.36%	0.04%	2.50%	1.22%		0.10%	1.34%	0.79%	0.61%	0.91%	1.41%	0.94%	1.09%	0.52%
Jacksonville Jaguars	0.12%	0.19%	0.07%		0.22%	0.05%	0.05%		0.12%	0.02%	0.02%	0.07%	0.10%	0.08%	0.12%	0.03%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.93%	2.16%	2.02%	0.02%	2.70%	4.14%	3.04%	0.48%		0.85%	1.02%	0.85%	1.40%	2.49%	0.92%	2.01%
Miami Dolphins	0.48%	0.30%	0.55%	0.01%	0.34%	0.99%	0.75%	0.14%	0.36%		0.22%	0.07%	0.23%	0.56%	0.18%	0.46%
New England Patriots	2.74%	3.47%	1.96%	0.05%	2.23%	2.51%	1.93%	0.24%	1.84%	1.36%		1.02%	1.51%	2.37%	1.20%	1.56%
New York Jets	0.21%	0.12%	0.22%	0.02%	0.20%	0.44%	0.37%	0.15%	0.13%	0.01%	0.11%		0.09%	0.42%	0.05%	0.36%
Oakland Raiders	0.91%	0.94%	1.14%	0.02%	0.89%	2.17%	1.34%	0.22%	0.94%	0.30%	0.45%	0.37%		1.24%	0.26%	1.10%
Pittsburgh Steelers	2.43%	3.36%	2.36%	0.11%	2.81%	2.08%	1.49%	0.34%	2.20%	1.59%	1.42%	1.39%	1.93%		1.42%	1.05%
San Diego Chargers	0.38%	0.39%	0.23%	0.01%	0.14%	0.64%	0.39%	0.11%	0.24%	0.11%	0.06%	0.10%	0.11%	0.25%		0.38%
Tennessee Titans	0.56%	1.20%	0.49%	0.02%	1.08%	0.58%	0.29%	0.04%	0.55%	0.49%	0.31%	0.37%	0.75%	0.31%	0.52%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		1.50%	1.82%	0.33%	1.19%	1.50%	1.32%	0.32%	2.12%	0.99%	1.07%	1.03%	0.06%	1.51%	0.79%	1.17%
Atlanta Falcons	3.65%		2.38%	0.61%	1.79%	2.35%	2.61%	0.99%	3.07%	0.94%	1.95%	1.88%	0.16%	2.49%	0.62%	1.95%
Carolina Panthers	1.92%	0.97%		0.38%	1.08%	1.46%	1.36%	0.73%	2.04%	0.62%	1.06%	1.03%	0.11%	1.35%	0.33%	1.07%
Chicago Bears	0.08%	0.05%	0.05%		0.07%	0.04%	0.03%	0.06%	0.11%	0.07%	0.05%	0.07%	0.01%	0.07%	0.06%	0.05%
Dallas Cowboys	3.01%	1.93%	2.33%	0.50%		2.45%	2.33%	1.10%	3.09%	1.05%	2.22%	1.53%	0.13%	2.01%	0.82%	1.85%
Detroit Lions	1.15%	0.85%	1.14%	0.20%	0.90%		0.66%	0.38%	1.61%	0.51%	0.94%	0.80%	0.10%	1.14%	0.33%	0.98%
Green Bay Packers	2.17%	1.73%	2.01%	0.30%	1.69%	1.71%		0.59%	2.90%	0.88%	1.66%	1.61%	0.10%	1.83%	0.78%	1.58%
Los Angeles Rams	0.03%	0.11%	0.21%	0.03%	0.07%	0.12%	0.13%		0.17%	0.08%	0.12%	0.09%	0.02%	0.08%	0.08%	0.14%
Minnesota Vikings	1.70%	1.12%	1.45%	0.34%	1.27%	1.31%	1.57%	0.70%		0.66%	1.25%	1.15%	0.06%	1.08%	0.53%	1.06%
New Orleans Saints	0.70%	0.32%	0.40%	0.14%	0.41%	0.48%	0.52%	0.26%	0.73%		0.38%	0.45%	0.07%	0.59%	0.17%	0.37%
New York Giants	1.33%	0.82%	1.13%	0.17%	1.16%	1.30%	1.21%	0.45%	1.50%	0.40%		0.56%	0.10%	1.12%	0.62%	0.65%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.93%	0.55%	0.78%	0.21%	0.59%	0.89%	0.67%	0.28%	1.21%	0.35%	0.38%		0.04%	0.68%	0.25%	0.35%
San Francisco 49ers	0.03%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01%	0.05%	0.03%	0.02%	0.01%	0.05%	0.01%	0.02%	0.02%		0.03%		0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	2.36%	1.45%	1.66%	0.55%	1.19%	1.82%	1.66%	0.83%	2.14%	0.95%	1.65%	1.36%	0.16%		0.98%	1.54%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.68%	0.37%	0.37%	0.11%	0.30%	0.41%	0.44%	0.20%	0.61%	0.15%	0.41%	0.33%	0.05%	0.53%		0.44%
Washington Redskins	1.03%	0.70%	0.99%	0.27%	0.73%	0.83%	0.97%	0.40%	1.70%	0.44%	0.59%	0.44%	0.08%	0.80%	0.46%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.59%	0.19%		0.91%	0.65%	0.49%	0.04%	0.84%	0.14%	1.24%	0.10%	0.35%	0.59%	0.14%	0.27%
Buffalo Bills	0.48%		0.44%		0.76%	0.66%	0.54%	0.01%	0.93%	0.14%	1.23%	0.10%	0.35%	0.79%	0.20%	0.23%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.27%	0.68%			0.83%	0.80%	0.56%	0.03%	1.20%	0.28%	1.30%	0.17%	0.38%	0.77%	0.14%	0.33%
Cleveland Browns									0.01%
Denver Broncos	1.20%	1.46%	1.19%	0.01%		1.93%	1.60%	0.14%	3.04%	0.60%	2.35%	0.37%	0.85%	2.82%	0.38%	0.64%
Houston Texans	0.66%	0.82%	0.73%		1.29%		0.13%	0.02%	1.23%	0.21%	1.32%	0.13%	0.52%	1.39%	0.24%	0.06%
Indianapolis Colts	0.58%	0.62%	0.50%	0.01%	1.04%	0.26%			1.31%	0.17%	1.40%	0.13%	0.38%	1.05%	0.24%	0.08%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.01%			0.02%	0.01%			0.06%	0.01%	0.09%		0.02%	0.04%	0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.94%	2.72%	2.75%	0.04%	5.19%	4.05%	2.80%	0.30%		1.07%	5.49%	0.50%	2.03%	6.28%	0.80%	1.61%
Miami Dolphins	0.22%	0.14%	0.21%		0.45%	0.26%	0.16%	0.03%	0.37%		0.54%	0.07%	0.19%	0.34%	0.02%	0.07%
New England Patriots	4.13%	5.38%	4.39%	0.08%	6.49%	6.18%	4.73%	0.32%	7.84%	1.46%		0.99%	3.59%	9.55%	1.29%	2.18%
New York Jets	0.06%	0.05%	0.09%	0.01%	0.09%	0.12%	0.05%		0.10%	0.02%	0.12%		0.08%	0.20%	0.05%	0.04%
Oakland Raiders	0.46%	0.71%	0.49%		0.95%	0.93%	0.64%	0.07%	1.35%	0.21%	1.29%	0.17%		1.42%	0.10%	0.39%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.22%	2.24%	1.27%	0.01%	4.09%	3.38%	2.26%	0.25%	4.79%	0.90%	4.05%	0.51%	2.00%		0.74%	1.21%
San Diego Chargers	0.13%	0.11%	0.08%	0.01%	0.18%	0.17%	0.10%		0.13%	0.01%	0.26%	0.06%	0.07%	0.27%		0.09%
Tennessee Titans	0.16%	0.20%	0.21%		0.33%	0.03%	0.02%		0.31%	0.06%	0.44%	0.02%	0.08%	0.43%	0.10%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		1.40%	1.19%	0.09%	1.76%	0.91%	1.41%	0.08%	1.79%	0.42%	0.78%	0.67%	0.01%	3.11%	0.51%	0.68%
Atlanta Falcons	2.74%		1.03%	0.20%	3.46%	1.99%	3.12%	0.33%	3.71%	0.36%	1.66%	1.38%	0.03%	5.76%	0.21%	1.51%
Carolina Panthers	0.92%	0.46%		0.10%	1.39%	0.58%	1.00%	0.17%	1.42%	0.11%	0.57%	0.48%	0.03%	1.92%	0.06%	0.58%
Chicago Bears	0.02%		0.05%		0.07%		0.01%				0.02%			0.06%	0.01%
Dallas Cowboys	3.19%	4.37%	3.32%	0.31%		2.80%	4.13%	0.38%	4.77%	1.23%	1.87%	1.31%	0.07%	6.41%	0.79%	1.73%
Detroit Lions	0.64%	0.94%	0.71%		1.02%		0.55%	0.03%	0.72%	0.19%	0.47%	0.36%		1.40%	0.19%	0.53%
Green Bay Packers	2.18%	2.26%	1.70%	0.07%	2.87%	0.74%		0.25%	2.28%	0.72%	1.27%	1.21%	0.06%	3.85%	0.57%	1.42%
Los Angeles Rams	0.01%	0.10%	0.09%	0.01%	0.04%	0.01%	0.04%		0.06%	0.02%	0.02%	0.03%		0.08%	0.02%	0.04%
Minnesota Vikings	1.24%	1.45%	1.25%	0.05%	1.93%	0.67%	0.91%	0.22%		0.44%	0.91%	0.73%	0.07%	2.17%	0.31%	0.94%
New Orleans Saints	0.32%	0.10%	0.09%	0.02%	0.33%	0.18%	0.27%	0.05%	0.50%		0.14%	0.14%		0.61%	0.03%	0.19%
New York Giants	0.79%	0.98%	0.80%	0.08%	0.97%	0.70%	0.99%	0.06%	1.26%	0.19%		0.40%	0.03%	1.79%	0.15%	0.32%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.49%	0.43%	0.40%	0.03%	0.56%	0.41%	0.60%	0.08%	0.72%	0.13%	0.20%		0.02%	0.95%	0.13%	0.15%
San Francisco 49ers		0.01%	0.01%		0.01%							0.01%
Seattle Seahawks	4.58%	4.29%	3.62%	0.36%	4.96%	2.95%	3.94%	0.52%	4.40%	1.36%	2.95%	2.11%	0.06%		1.28%	2.43%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.35%	0.16%	0.07%	0.01%	0.35%	0.18%	0.17%	0.03%	0.48%	0.02%	0.18%	0.11%	0.01%	0.45%		0.19%
Washington Redskins	0.62%	0.84%	0.63%	0.09%	0.75%	0.46%	0.81%	0.07%	0.91%	0.23%	0.31%	0.24%	0.02%	1.31%	0.25%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Cincinnati Bengals	Cleveland Browns	Denver Broncos	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Tennessee Titans
Baltimore Ravens		0.10%	0.04%		0.18%	0.17%	0.11%		0.34%	0.05%	0.44%	0.02%	0.12%	0.11%	0.05%	0.02%
Buffalo Bills	0.09%		0.08%		0.27%	0.15%	0.16%		0.46%	0.04%	0.31%	0.01%	0.11%	0.33%	0.04%	0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.06%	0.18%			0.23%	0.20%	0.13%		0.48%	0.08%	0.74%	0.04%	0.14%	0.16%	0.06%	0.03%
Denver Broncos	0.54%	0.56%	0.47%			0.45%	0.34%	0.02%	0.84%	0.18%	2.49%	0.13%	0.16%	1.17%	0.09%	0.17%
Houston Texans	0.17%	0.15%	0.15%		0.24%		0.04%		0.42%	0.05%	0.58%	0.04%	0.15%	0.42%	0.04%	0.02%
Indianapolis Colts	0.13%	0.22%	0.18%		0.18%	0.05%			0.51%	0.06%	0.59%	0.05%	0.08%	0.43%	0.01%	0.02%
Jacksonville Jaguars		0.01%			0.02%						0.01%			0.02%
Kansas City Chiefs	1.08%	1.30%	1.11%		1.71%	1.32%	1.23%	0.04%		0.59%	7.37%	0.27%	0.78%	3.65%	0.19%	0.42%
Miami Dolphins	0.03%	0.07%	0.07%		0.14%	0.09%	0.02%		0.13%		0.16%		0.09%	0.15%	0.01%	0.03%
New England Patriots	1.99%	1.30%	2.39%		5.85%	2.64%	2.35%	0.08%	10.94%	0.52%		0.17%	2.84%	8.31%	0.56%	0.77%
New York Jets	0.02%	0.02%			0.04%				0.03%		0.02%		0.01%		0.01%	0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.27%	0.25%	0.20%		0.31%	0.20%	0.11%	0.01%	0.46%	0.17%	0.96%	0.04%		0.57%	0.04%	0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.35%	0.62%	0.42%	0.01%	1.69%	0.99%	0.74%	0.06%	2.69%	0.31%	4.02%	0.13%	1.02%		0.16%	0.24%
San Diego Chargers	0.05%	0.01%	0.03%		0.02%	0.02%	0.03%		0.05%	0.02%	0.07%	0.01%	0.01%	0.08%		0.01%
Tennessee Titans	0.01%	0.01%	0.07%		0.09%				0.16%	0.01%	0.13%	0.01%	0.04%	0.07%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Los Angeles Rams	Minnesota Vikings	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	Philadelphia Eagles	San Francisco 49ers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals		0.76%	0.48%	0.02%	1.45%	0.45%	0.71%	0.03%	0.55%	0.10%	0.42%	0.27%		0.70%	0.12%	0.29%
Atlanta Falcons	1.50%		0.36%	0.05%	3.33%	0.77%	1.71%	0.06%	1.54%	0.14%	1.00%	0.74%		4.00%	0.06%	0.65%
Carolina Panthers	0.30%	0.24%		0.01%	0.78%	0.19%	0.38%	0.01%	0.45%	0.02%	0.27%	0.17%		1.07%	0.01%	0.15%
Chicago Bears			0.01%		0.01%					0.01%				0.02%
Dallas Cowboys	2.64%	3.39%	1.46%	0.05%		1.16%	2.70%	0.08%	2.14%	0.58%	0.74%	0.51%	0.02%	5.82%	0.48%	0.52%
Detroit Lions	0.37%	0.42%	0.17%		0.42%		0.13%		0.07%	0.07%	0.28%	0.10%		0.73%	0.04%	0.14%
Green Bay Packers	1.11%	1.67%	0.69%	0.01%	1.91%	0.35%		0.07%	0.56%	0.22%	0.64%	0.49%		2.71%	0.24%	0.80%
Los Angeles Rams					0.05%		0.02%		0.04%			0.02%		0.01%	0.01%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings	0.41%	0.56%	0.28%		0.95%	0.14%	0.33%	0.05%		0.09%	0.30%	0.24%	0.01%	1.12%	0.07%	0.25%
New Orleans Saints	0.04%	0.06%	0.03%		0.17%	0.04%	0.11%		0.13%		0.06%	0.07%		0.27%	0.01%	0.05%
New York Giants	0.32%	0.59%	0.31%	0.01%	0.44%	0.14%	0.40%	0.02%	0.34%	0.08%		0.10%		1.06%	0.10%	0.11%
Philadelphia Eagles	0.17%	0.22%	0.14%		0.16%	0.07%	0.24%	0.02%	0.14%	0.13%	0.01%			0.36%	0.03%	0.02%
Seattle Seahawks	1.16%	3.21%	1.53%	0.04%	4.15%	1.31%	2.81%	0.03%	2.20%	0.38%	1.59%	0.80%	0.01%		0.39%	1.13%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers	0.08%	0.06%	0.03%		0.20%	0.05%	0.14%		0.07%	0.03%	0.08%	0.04%		0.27%		0.11%
Washington Redskins	0.36%	0.40%	0.25%		0.37%	0.14%	0.30%	0.04%	0.26%	0.08%	0.10%	0.04%		0.93%	0.04%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Arizona Cardinals	Atlanta Falcons	Baltimore Ravens	Buffalo Bills	Carolina Panthers	Chicago Bears	Cincinnati Bengals	Dallas Cowboys	Denver Broncos	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Indianapolis Colts	Jacksonville Jaguars	Kansas City Chiefs	Los Angeles Rams	Miami Dolphins	Minnesota Vikings	New England Patriots	New Orleans Saints	New York Giants	New York Jets	Oakland Raiders	Philadelphia Eagles	Pittsburgh Steelers	San Diego Chargers	Seattle Seahawks	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	Tennessee Titans	Washington Redskins
Arizona Cardinals			0.07%	0.08%			0.11%		0.24%			0.06%	0.07%		0.47%		0.04%		0.61%				0.16%		0.38%	0.01%			0.03%
Atlanta Falcons			0.10%	0.20%			0.33%		0.76%			0.26%	0.26%	0.02%	1.48%		0.13%		2.64%			0.01%	0.31%		1.00%	0.04%			0.08%
Baltimore Ravens	0.08%	0.16%			0.02%	0.01%		0.19%		0.03%	0.09%							0.04%		0.02%	0.06%			0.02%			0.10%	0.01%		0.03%
Buffalo Bills	0.05%	0.08%			0.05%			0.19%		0.04%	0.07%							0.06%		0.01%	0.04%			0.01%			0.15%	0.01%		0.04%
Carolina Panthers			0.03%	0.03%			0.06%		0.18%			0.05%	0.03%		0.26%		0.04%		0.41%				0.01%		0.26%				0.01%
Cincinnati Bengals	0.11%	0.15%			0.09%	0.01%		0.16%		0.03%	0.04%					0.01%		0.03%			0.05%						0.17%	0.02%		0.03%
Dallas Cowboys			0.25%	0.31%			0.38%		1.10%			0.40%	0.38%	0.01%	2.24%		0.13%		3.35%			0.03%	0.44%		1.56%	0.09%			0.08%
Denver Broncos	0.35%	0.55%			0.08%			0.60%		0.13%	0.38%					0.01%		0.22%		0.03%	0.16%			0.06%			0.69%	0.06%		0.13%
Detroit Lions			0.02%	0.04%			0.05%		0.08%				0.01%	0.01%	0.19%				0.36%				0.04%		0.10%	0.01%			0.01%
Green Bay Packers			0.09%	0.20%			0.16%		0.40%			0.19%	0.14%	0.01%	0.89%		0.06%		1.61%				0.22%		0.83%	0.05%			0.05%
Houston Texans	0.12%	0.10%			0.07%	0.01%		0.24%		0.04%	0.06%					0.02%		0.05%		0.01%	0.02%			0.02%			0.23%	0.01%		0.04%
Indianapolis Colts	0.07%	0.14%			0.05%			0.23%		0.04%	0.11%							0.07%		0.01%	0.06%			0.01%			0.21%			0.10%
Jacksonville Jaguars																								0.01%
Kansas City Chiefs	0.86%	1.58%			0.51%			2.53%		0.44%	1.48%					0.03%		0.93%		0.16%	0.53%			0.33%			2.94%	0.15%		0.43%
Los Angeles Rams													0.01%		0.02%										0.03%
Miami Dolphins	0.01%	0.05%			0.04%			0.04%		0.01%	0.07%					0.01%		0.04%		0.03%	0.01%			0.01%			0.07%	0.01%
Minnesota Vikings			0.05%	0.03%			0.04%		0.15%			0.06%	0.08%		0.26%		0.01%		0.36%			0.02%	0.02%		0.21%	0.01%			0.03%
New England Patriots	1.87%	3.93%			1.47%	0.01%		5.53%		0.92%	3.16%					0.02%		1.44%		0.32%	1.28%			0.51%			5.48%	0.34%		0.90%
New Orleans Saints			0.01%	0.02%					0.01%			0.02%	0.02%		0.06%		0.02%		0.13%						0.05%
New York Giants			0.04%	0.02%			0.07%		0.18%			0.02%	0.07%		0.28%		0.01%		0.38%				0.10%		0.26%	0.01%			0.03%
New York Jets		0.01%						0.02%			0.01%							0.01%									0.02%			0.01%
Oakland Raiders	0.08%	0.30%			0.04%			0.35%		0.08%	0.21%							0.14%		0.01%	0.08%			0.02%			0.40%	0.02%		0.08%
Philadelphia Eagles			0.01%	0.03%					0.03%			0.02%	0.01%		0.14%		0.01%		0.12%			0.01%	0.03%		0.04%
Pittsburgh Steelers	0.41%	1.20%			0.25%	0.01%		1.44%		0.24%	0.84%							0.38%		0.10%	0.25%			0.25%			1.47%	0.08%		0.29%
San Diego Chargers		0.02%						0.02%		0.02%	0.03%							0.01%						0.01%			0.01%			0.01%
Seattle Seahawks			0.20%	0.24%			0.37%		0.86%			0.28%	0.24%		1.63%		0.11%		3.01%				0.40%		1.29%	0.04%			0.10%
Tampa Bay Buccaneers									0.07%			0.03%	0.01%		0.07%				0.19%				0.01%		0.06%	0.01%
Tennessee Titans	0.01%	0.02%			0.01%						0.02%							0.05%			0.01%						0.03%
Washington Redskins			0.02%	0.06%			0.06%		0.10%			0.04%	0.08%		0.17%		0.03%		0.36%			0.01%	0.08%		0.17%	0.01%			0.03%

Actual Bracket Simulation

With the actual playoff bracket fixed in place, this second simulation re-runs each matchup 10,000 times and tallies how often each team advanced past each round and won the title. The right-most column shows what actually happened. Round buttons switch to matchup heatmaps for that round.

Team	Advanced to Divisional Round	Advanced to Conference Championship	Advanced to Super Bowl	Won Super Bowl	Actual Outcome
New England Patriots	100.00%	80.22%	53.64%	33.38%	Won Super Bowl
Dallas Cowboys	100.00%	67.38%	40.37%	17.61%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Kansas City Chiefs	100.00%	65.27%	27.47%	15.35%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Atlanta Falcons	100.00%	61.71%	29.50%	12.60%	Eliminated in Super Bowl
Pittsburgh Steelers	71.97%	27.26%	10.49%	5.70%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Seattle Seahawks	69.76%	26.97%	12.32%	4.84%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Green Bay Packers	65.61%	25.11%	11.15%	4.62%	Eliminated in Conference Championship
Oakland Raiders	54.60%	14.00%	4.60%	2.28%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
New York Giants	34.39%	11.02%	4.30%	1.53%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Detroit Lions	30.24%	7.81%	2.36%	0.79%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round
Houston Texans	45.40%	8.00%	1.97%	0.65%	Eliminated in Divisional Round
Miami Dolphins	28.03%	5.25%	1.83%	0.65%	Eliminated in Wild Card Round

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Texans	Miami Dolphins	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans			45.40%
Miami Dolphins				28.03%
Oakland Raiders	54.60%
Pittsburgh Steelers		71.97%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks
Detroit Lions				30.24%
Green Bay Packers			65.61%
New York Giants		34.39%
Seattle Seahawks	69.76%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans		2.93%		5.07%
Kansas City Chiefs	9.98%				10.58%	44.71%
Miami Dolphins				5.25%
New England Patriots	27.42%		22.78%		30.02%
Oakland Raiders		4.54%		9.46%
Pittsburgh Steelers		27.26%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons				12.02%	6.90%	42.79%
Dallas Cowboys			22.43%	28.48%	16.47%
Detroit Lions		7.81%
Green Bay Packers	7.74%	17.37%
New York Giants	3.58%	7.44%
Seattle Seahawks	26.97%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers
Houston Texans		0.67%	0.27%	0.50%		0.53%
Kansas City Chiefs	2.54%		2.64%	18.57%	3.72%
Miami Dolphins	0.27%	1.23%			0.33%
New England Patriots	1.89%	33.88%			2.75%	15.12%
Oakland Raiders		2.02%	0.51%	0.95%		1.12%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.33%			6.56%	2.60%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	New York Giants	Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons		17.16%	3.38%	6.17%	2.79%
Dallas Cowboys	24.67%			3.37%	1.71%	10.62%
Detroit Lions	1.51%			0.47%	0.38%
Green Bay Packers	4.33%	2.37%	1.53%			2.92%
New York Giants	1.70%	0.95%	0.54%			1.11%
Seattle Seahawks		6.53%		3.95%	1.84%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Atlanta Falcons	Dallas Cowboys	Detroit Lions	Green Bay Packers	Houston Texans	Kansas City Chiefs	Miami Dolphins	New England Patriots	New York Giants	Oakland Raiders	Pittsburgh Steelers	Seattle Seahawks
Atlanta Falcons					0.39%	3.45%	0.35%	6.32%		0.68%	1.41%
Dallas Cowboys					0.57%	5.28%	0.44%	8.35%		0.98%	1.99%
Detroit Lions					0.02%	0.26%	0.04%	0.33%		0.05%	0.09%
Green Bay Packers					0.16%	1.37%	0.12%	2.11%		0.29%	0.57%
Houston Texans	0.16%	0.33%	0.03%	0.01%					0.02%			0.10%
Kansas City Chiefs	4.42%	5.86%	0.35%	1.85%					0.66%			2.21%
Miami Dolphins	0.12%	0.34%	0.03%	0.06%					0.03%			0.07%
New England Patriots	9.92%	13.15%	0.97%	3.64%					1.66%			4.04%
New York Giants					0.03%	0.54%	0.05%	0.68%		0.07%	0.16%
Oakland Raiders	0.67%	0.88%	0.06%	0.29%					0.10%			0.28%
Pittsburgh Steelers	1.61%	2.20%	0.13%	0.68%					0.30%			0.78%
Seattle Seahawks					0.15%	1.22%	0.18%	2.47%		0.25%	0.57%

Most-Likely Championship Paths

For each playoff team, the opponent they most often faced and defeated at each round across all bracket simulations. Each step shows two numbers: Matchup % is the fraction of this team's wins in this round that came against this opponent; Win % is the head-to-head probability they beat this opponent when the two meet. Note: fixed early-round matchups against bracket-determined opponents will show 100% Matchup — that's because those pairings are decided by the bracket.

New England Patriots 33.38% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

37.42%

Win Prob

76.04%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

63.16%

Win Prob

64.59%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

39.39%

Win Prob

61.16%

Dallas Cowboys 17.61% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

42.27%

Win Prob

62.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

61.11%

Win Prob

58.98%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

47.42%

Win Prob

38.84%

Kansas City Chiefs 15.35% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

68.50%

Win Prob

62.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

67.60%

Win Prob

35.41%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

38.18%

Win Prob

52.60%

Atlanta Falcons 12.60% chance to win

Divisional Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

69.34%

Win Prob

61.34%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

58.17%

Win Prob

41.02%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

50.16%

Win Prob

38.92%

Pittsburgh Steelers 5.70% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Miami Dolphins

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

71.97%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

37.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

62.54%

Win Prob

30.26%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

38.60%

Win Prob

52.51%

Seattle Seahawks 4.84% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Detroit Lions

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

69.76%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

38.66%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

53.00%

Win Prob

38.08%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

51.03%

Win Prob

37.94%

Green Bay Packers 4.62% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. New York Giants

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

65.61%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

69.18%

Win Prob

37.88%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

38.83%

Win Prob

41.24%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

45.67%

Win Prob

36.70%

Oakland Raiders 2.28% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Houston Texans

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

54.60%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

67.57%

Win Prob

23.96%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

43.91%

Win Prob

35.19%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

38.60%

Win Prob

47.31%

New York Giants 1.53% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Green Bay Packers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

34.39%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

67.51%

Win Prob

31.12%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

39.53%

Win Prob

37.86%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

44.44%

Win Prob

29.06%

Detroit Lions 0.79% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Seattle Seahawks

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

30.24%

→

Divisional Round

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

25.83%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Atlanta Falcons

Matchup

63.98%

Win Prob

30.88%

→

Super Bowl

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

41.77%

Win Prob

25.38%

Houston Texans 0.65% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Oakland Raiders

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

45.40%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

63.38%

Win Prob

15.60%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

34.01%

Win Prob

20.87%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

50.77%

Win Prob

36.67%

Miami Dolphins 0.65% chance to win

Wild Card Round

vs. Pittsburgh Steelers

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

28.03%

→

Divisional Round

vs. New England Patriots

Matchup

100.00%

Win Prob

18.73%

→

Conference Championship

vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Matchup

67.21%

Win Prob

31.78%

→

Super Bowl

vs. Dallas Cowboys

Matchup

52.31%

Win Prob

43.59%

Regular Season Games

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Pick a team from the dropdown — it filters every table on this tab. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Filter by Team:

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2016-09-11	New England Patriots	L 21-23	1568.09	1576.96	55.73%	43.34%	-12.51	0-1
2016-09-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 40-7	1555.58	1468.71	68.48%	30.59%	+28.01	1-1
2016-09-25	@ Buffalo Bills	L 18-33	1583.59	1472.56	57.91%	41.17%	-35.57	1-2
2016-10-02	Los Angeles Rams	L 13-17	1548.02	1483.15	65.73%	33.34%	-20.84	1-3
2016-10-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 33-21	1527.18	1418.39	57.59%	41.48%	+22.85	2-3
2016-10-17	New York Jets	W 28-3	1550.03	1463.79	68.40%	30.67%	+24.43	3-3
2016-10-23	Seattle Seahawks	T 6-6	1574.46	1631.56	48.83%	50.24%	+0.06	3-3
2016-10-30	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-30	1574.52	1497.65	53.07%	46.00%	-26.64	3-4
2016-11-13	San Francisco 49ers	W 23-20	1547.88	1317.36	82.91%	16.16%	+4.48	4-4
2016-11-20	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 24-30	1552.36	1526.88	45.70%	53.38%	-17.79	4-5
2016-11-27	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 19-38	1534.57	1557.53	38.90%	60.17%	-26.98	4-6
2016-12-04	Washington Redskins	W 31-23	1507.59	1534.28	53.20%	45.87%	+20.62	5-6
2016-12-11	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-26	1528.21	1478.35	49.20%	49.88%	-13.53	5-7
2016-12-18	New Orleans Saints	L 41-48	1514.68	1453.29	65.28%	33.79%	-27.38	5-8
2016-12-24	@ Seattle Seahawks	W 34-31	1487.30	1615.62	25.77%	73.30%	+20.12	6-8
2017-01-01	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 44-6	1507.42	1343.97	64.97%	34.10%	+33.47	7-8
2016-09-11	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 24-31	1489.25	1442.11	63.42%	35.65%	-26.60	0-1
2016-09-18	@ Oakland Raiders	W 35-28	1462.65	1472.50	40.71%	58.36%	+24.48	1-1
2016-09-26	@ New Orleans Saints	W 45-32	1487.13	1446.60	47.85%	51.22%	+29.31	2-1
2016-10-02	Carolina Panthers	W 48-33	1516.44	1562.74	50.39%	48.68%	+29.95	3-1
2016-10-09	@ Denver Broncos	W 23-16	1546.39	1646.68	28.98%	70.10%	+29.39	4-1
2016-10-16	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 24-26	1575.78	1623.55	35.57%	63.50%	-8.00	4-2
2016-10-23	San Diego Chargers	L 30-33	1567.78	1472.86	69.45%	29.62%	-19.07	4-3
2016-10-30	Green Bay Packers	W 33-32	1548.71	1552.70	56.42%	42.65%	+6.78	5-3
2016-11-03	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 43-28	1555.49	1434.44	59.30%	39.78%	+24.50	6-3
2016-11-13	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 15-24	1579.99	1544.49	47.13%	51.94%	-22.46	6-4
2016-11-27	Arizona Cardinals	W 38-19	1557.53	1534.57	60.17%	38.90%	+26.98	7-4
2016-12-04	Kansas City Chiefs	L 28-29	1584.51	1635.28	49.74%	49.33%	-7.90	7-5
2016-12-11	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 42-14	1576.61	1393.29	67.50%	31.58%	+26.62	8-5
2016-12-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 41-13	1603.23	1254.71	90.17%	8.90%	+7.54	9-5
2016-12-24	@ Carolina Panthers	W 33-16	1610.77	1550.22	50.73%	48.34%	+31.65	10-5
2017-01-01	New Orleans Saints	W 38-32	1642.42	1500.72	74.75%	24.33%	+9.50	11-5
2016-09-11	Buffalo Bills	W 13-7	1478.42	1512.15	52.19%	46.88%	+18.25	1-0
2016-09-18	@ Cleveland Browns	W 25-20	1496.67	1403.24	55.43%	43.64%	+15.51	2-0
2016-09-25	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 19-17	1512.18	1390.90	59.33%	39.74%	+8.94	3-0
2016-10-02	Oakland Raiders	L 27-28	1521.12	1469.14	64.06%	35.01%	-10.16	3-1
2016-10-09	Washington Redskins	L 10-16	1510.96	1467.00	63.00%	36.07%	-24.46	3-2
2016-10-16	@ New York Giants	L 23-27	1486.50	1454.27	46.66%	52.41%	-14.83	3-3
2016-10-23	@ New York Jets	L 16-24	1471.67	1439.35	46.68%	52.40%	-20.97	3-4
2016-11-06	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 21-14	1450.70	1552.50	42.46%	56.61%	+23.76	4-4
2016-11-10	Cleveland Browns	W 28-7	1474.46	1291.17	78.88%	20.19%	+14.77	5-4
2016-11-20	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-27	1489.23	1627.64	24.68%	74.40%	-12.45	5-5
2016-11-27	Cincinnati Bengals	W 19-14	1476.78	1481.80	56.28%	42.79%	+15.21	6-5
2016-12-04	Miami Dolphins	W 38-6	1491.99	1519.71	53.05%	46.02%	+41.36	7-5
2016-12-12	@ New England Patriots	L 23-30	1533.35	1678.67	23.94%	75.13%	-10.10	7-6
2016-12-18	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-26	1523.25	1458.19	65.75%	33.32%	+5.30	8-6
2016-12-25	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 27-31	1528.55	1619.54	30.09%	68.98%	-9.59	8-7
2017-01-01	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-27	1518.96	1488.73	46.38%	52.69%	-30.38	8-8
2016-09-11	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-13	1512.15	1478.42	46.88%	52.19%	-18.24	0-1
2016-09-15	New York Jets	L 31-37	1493.91	1508.31	54.95%	44.12%	-21.35	0-2
2016-09-25	Arizona Cardinals	W 33-18	1472.56	1583.59	41.17%	57.91%	+35.57	1-2
2016-10-02	@ New England Patriots	W 16-0	1508.13	1628.04	26.71%	72.36%	+45.88	2-2
2016-10-09	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 30-19	1554.01	1503.99	49.22%	49.85%	+26.25	3-2
2016-10-16	San Francisco 49ers	W 45-16	1580.26	1395.55	79.01%	20.06%	+17.25	4-2
2016-10-23	@ Miami Dolphins	L 25-28	1597.51	1439.19	64.31%	34.77%	-17.66	4-3
2016-10-30	New England Patriots	L 25-41	1579.85	1648.47	47.18%	51.89%	-29.98	4-4
2016-11-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 25-31	1549.87	1606.92	34.35%	64.72%	-13.39	4-5
2016-11-20	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 16-12	1536.48	1498.16	47.54%	51.53%	+16.35	5-5
2016-11-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 28-21	1552.83	1328.16	82.45%	16.62%	+7.03	6-5
2016-12-04	@ Oakland Raiders	L 24-38	1559.86	1571.30	40.49%	58.58%	-24.09	6-6
2016-12-11	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-27	1535.77	1584.64	50.02%	49.05%	-21.01	6-7
2016-12-18	Cleveland Browns	W 33-13	1514.76	1233.62	86.48%	12.59%	+9.00	7-7
2016-12-24	Miami Dolphins	L 31-34	1523.76	1523.64	57.00%	42.07%	-15.66	7-8
2017-01-01	@ New York Jets	L 10-30	1508.10	1357.54	63.29%	35.79%	-44.87	7-9
2016-09-08	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-21	1582.66	1576.44	42.96%	56.11%	-6.83	0-1
2016-09-18	San Francisco 49ers	W 46-27	1575.83	1477.25	69.89%	29.18%	+20.27	1-1
2016-09-25	Minnesota Vikings	L 10-22	1596.10	1568.95	60.74%	38.33%	-33.36	1-2
2016-10-02	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 33-48	1562.74	1516.44	48.68%	50.39%	-29.94	1-3
2016-10-10	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 14-17	1532.80	1400.98	73.69%	25.39%	-20.23	1-4
2016-10-16	@ New Orleans Saints	L 38-41	1512.57	1427.33	54.27%	44.80%	-14.92	1-5
2016-10-30	Arizona Cardinals	W 30-20	1497.65	1574.52	46.00%	53.07%	+26.64	2-5
2016-11-06	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 13-10	1524.29	1445.58	53.34%	45.73%	+12.58	3-5
2016-11-13	Kansas City Chiefs	L 17-20	1536.87	1626.08	44.24%	54.83%	-12.18	3-6
2016-11-17	New Orleans Saints	W 23-20	1524.69	1475.73	63.66%	35.41%	+9.77	4-6
2016-11-27	@ Oakland Raiders	L 32-35	1534.46	1560.71	38.45%	60.62%	-10.60	4-7
2016-12-04	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 7-40	1523.86	1630.87	28.19%	70.89%	-25.81	4-8
2016-12-11	San Diego Chargers	W 28-16	1498.05	1472.84	60.48%	38.60%	+21.27	5-8
2016-12-19	@ Washington Redskins	W 26-15	1519.32	1532.01	40.32%	58.75%	+30.90	6-8
2016-12-24	Atlanta Falcons	L 16-33	1550.22	1610.77	48.34%	50.73%	-31.65	6-9
2017-01-01	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 16-17	1518.57	1500.18	44.69%	54.38%	-7.10	6-10
2016-09-11	@ Houston Texans	L 14-23	1455.48	1502.09	35.72%	63.35%	-17.06	0-1
2016-09-19	Philadelphia Eagles	L 14-29	1438.42	1506.50	47.26%	51.82%	-29.07	0-2
2016-09-25	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 17-31	1409.35	1475.36	33.20%	65.87%	-19.79	0-3
2016-10-02	Detroit Lions	W 17-14	1389.56	1485.54	43.28%	55.79%	+15.33	1-3
2016-10-09	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 23-29	1404.89	1440.64	37.17%	61.90%	-14.49	1-4
2016-10-16	Jacksonville Jaguars	L 16-17	1390.40	1398.49	55.85%	43.23%	-8.85	1-5
2016-10-20	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-26	1381.55	1538.16	22.78%	76.29%	-14.54	1-6
2016-10-31	Minnesota Vikings	W 20-10	1367.01	1609.59	24.70%	74.37%	+37.28	2-6
2016-11-13	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 10-36	1404.29	1409.93	41.30%	57.77%	-33.49	2-7
2016-11-20	@ New York Giants	L 16-22	1370.80	1515.00	24.06%	75.01%	-9.40	2-8
2016-11-27	Tennessee Titans	L 21-27	1361.40	1427.28	47.57%	51.50%	-18.51	2-9
2016-12-04	San Francisco 49ers	W 26-6	1342.89	1296.14	63.37%	35.70%	+25.42	3-9
2016-12-11	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-20	1368.31	1564.97	18.98%	80.09%	-5.25	3-10
2016-12-18	Green Bay Packers	L 27-30	1363.06	1563.96	29.43%	69.64%	-8.13	3-11
2016-12-24	Washington Redskins	L 21-41	1354.93	1501.11	36.37%	62.71%	-25.88	3-12
2017-01-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-38	1329.05	1464.31	25.01%	74.06%	-21.12	3-13
2016-09-11	@ New York Jets	W 23-22	1554.22	1516.51	47.45%	51.62%	+8.19	1-0
2016-09-18	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-24	1562.41	1597.08	37.31%	61.76%	-16.79	1-1
2016-09-25	Denver Broncos	L 17-29	1545.62	1598.82	49.39%	49.68%	-27.17	1-2
2016-09-29	Miami Dolphins	W 22-7	1518.45	1452.25	65.90%	33.17%	+20.46	2-2
2016-10-09	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 14-28	1538.91	1515.71	45.37%	53.70%	-26.98	2-3
2016-10-16	@ New England Patriots	L 17-35	1511.93	1601.15	30.31%	68.77%	-20.48	2-4
2016-10-23	Cleveland Browns	W 31-17	1491.45	1330.75	76.70%	22.37%	+13.35	3-4
2016-10-30	Washington Redskins	T 27-27	1504.80	1501.57	50.00%	49.07%	-0.03	3-4
2016-11-14	@ New York Giants	L 20-21	1504.77	1508.39	41.58%	57.49%	-6.61	3-5
2016-11-20	Buffalo Bills	L 12-16	1498.16	1536.48	51.53%	47.54%	-16.36	3-6
2016-11-27	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-19	1481.80	1476.78	42.79%	56.28%	-15.22	3-7
2016-12-04	Philadelphia Eagles	W 32-14	1466.58	1508.97	50.95%	48.12%	+32.43	4-7
2016-12-11	@ Cleveland Browns	W 23-10	1499.01	1247.28	75.33%	23.74%	+13.65	5-7
2016-12-18	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 20-24	1512.66	1605.65	43.70%	55.37%	-13.89	5-8
2016-12-24	@ Houston Texans	L 10-12	1498.77	1480.34	44.69%	54.38%	-10.04	5-9
2017-01-01	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-10	1488.73	1518.96	52.69%	46.38%	+30.38	6-9
2016-09-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-29	1427.25	1482.49	34.59%	64.49%	-24.01	0-1
2016-09-18	Baltimore Ravens	L 20-25	1403.24	1496.67	43.64%	55.43%	-15.51	0-2
2016-09-25	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-30	1387.73	1438.53	35.17%	63.90%	-13.71	0-3
2016-10-02	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-31	1374.02	1450.14	31.92%	67.15%	-16.87	0-4
2016-10-09	New England Patriots	L 13-33	1357.15	1582.16	26.63%	72.44%	-18.99	0-5
2016-10-16	@ Tennessee Titans	L 26-28	1338.16	1406.75	32.87%	66.20%	-7.41	0-6
2016-10-23	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 17-31	1330.75	1491.45	22.37%	76.70%	-13.35	0-7
2016-10-30	New York Jets	L 28-31	1317.40	1460.33	36.80%	62.27%	-10.15	0-8
2016-11-06	Dallas Cowboys	L 10-35	1307.25	1595.52	20.14%	78.93%	-16.08	0-9
2016-11-10	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 7-28	1291.17	1474.46	20.19%	78.88%	-14.77	0-10
2016-11-20	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 9-24	1276.40	1512.70	25.38%	73.69%	-15.68	0-11
2016-11-27	New York Giants	L 13-27	1260.72	1524.41	22.51%	76.56%	-13.44	0-12
2016-12-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 10-23	1247.28	1499.01	23.74%	75.33%	-13.66	0-13
2016-12-18	@ Buffalo Bills	L 13-33	1233.62	1514.76	12.59%	86.48%	-9.00	0-14
2016-12-24	San Diego Chargers	W 20-17	1224.62	1440.86	27.63%	71.44%	+19.61	1-14
2017-01-01	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 24-27	1244.23	1629.13	7.34%	91.73%	-0.67	1-15
2016-09-11	New York Giants	L 19-20	1466.24	1478.10	55.31%	43.76%	-8.78	0-1
2016-09-18	@ Washington Redskins	W 27-23	1457.46	1453.39	42.66%	56.41%	+17.90	1-1
2016-09-25	Chicago Bears	W 31-17	1475.36	1409.35	65.87%	33.20%	+19.78	2-1
2016-10-02	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 24-17	1495.14	1438.97	50.10%	48.97%	+20.57	3-1
2016-10-09	Cincinnati Bengals	W 28-14	1515.71	1538.91	53.70%	45.37%	+26.98	4-1
2016-10-16	@ Green Bay Packers	W 30-16	1542.69	1574.57	37.69%	61.38%	+36.41	5-1
2016-10-30	Philadelphia Eagles	W 29-23	1579.10	1579.56	56.92%	42.15%	+16.42	6-1
2016-11-06	@ Cleveland Browns	W 35-10	1595.52	1307.25	78.93%	20.14%	+16.08	7-1
2016-11-13	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 35-30	1611.60	1528.74	53.93%	45.14%	+16.04	8-1
2016-11-20	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-17	1627.64	1489.23	74.40%	24.68%	+12.45	9-1
2016-11-24	Washington Redskins	W 31-26	1640.09	1544.82	69.50%	29.57%	+10.54	10-1
2016-12-01	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 17-15	1650.63	1532.14	58.94%	40.13%	+9.02	11-1
2016-12-11	@ New York Giants	L 7-10	1659.65	1518.59	62.02%	37.05%	-17.03	11-2
2016-12-18	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 26-20	1642.62	1531.04	71.42%	27.66%	+10.80	12-2
2016-12-26	Detroit Lions	W 42-21	1653.42	1545.46	71.00%	28.08%	+20.51	13-2
2017-01-01	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 13-27	1673.93	1473.25	69.61%	29.46%	-13.76	13-3
2016-09-08	Carolina Panthers	W 21-20	1576.44	1582.66	56.11%	42.96%	+6.83	1-0
2016-09-18	Indianapolis Colts	W 34-20	1583.27	1457.70	73.00%	26.08%	+15.55	2-0
2016-09-25	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 29-17	1598.82	1545.62	49.68%	49.39%	+27.17	3-0
2016-10-02	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 27-7	1625.99	1421.67	70.05%	29.02%	+20.69	4-0
2016-10-09	Atlanta Falcons	L 16-23	1646.68	1546.39	70.10%	28.98%	-29.40	4-1
2016-10-13	@ San Diego Chargers	L 13-21	1617.28	1443.12	66.35%	32.73%	-29.75	4-2
2016-10-24	Houston Texans	W 27-9	1587.53	1513.34	66.91%	32.16%	+21.74	5-2
2016-10-30	San Diego Chargers	W 27-19	1609.27	1491.93	72.07%	27.00%	+12.18	6-2
2016-11-06	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-30	1621.45	1512.29	57.65%	41.43%	-28.91	6-3
2016-11-13	@ New Orleans Saints	W 25-23	1592.54	1485.10	57.40%	41.67%	+9.37	7-3
2016-11-27	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-30	1601.91	1620.33	54.38%	44.69%	-14.95	7-4
2016-12-04	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 20-10	1586.96	1321.13	76.77%	22.30%	+11.26	8-4
2016-12-11	@ Tennessee Titans	L 10-13	1598.22	1445.78	63.53%	35.54%	-17.45	8-5
2016-12-18	New England Patriots	L 3-16	1580.77	1688.78	41.59%	57.48%	-23.84	8-6
2016-12-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-33	1556.93	1641.24	30.90%	68.17%	-23.62	8-7
2017-01-01	Oakland Raiders	W 24-6	1533.31	1605.33	46.69%	52.38%	+35.27	9-7
2016-09-11	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 39-35	1494.92	1474.88	44.92%	54.15%	+17.18	1-0
2016-09-18	Tennessee Titans	L 15-16	1512.10	1389.64	72.65%	26.42%	-11.51	1-1
2016-09-25	@ Green Bay Packers	L 27-34	1500.59	1547.06	35.74%	63.33%	-15.05	1-2
2016-10-02	@ Chicago Bears	L 14-17	1485.54	1389.56	55.79%	43.28%	-15.33	1-3
2016-10-09	Philadelphia Eagles	W 24-23	1470.21	1582.64	40.97%	58.10%	+9.21	2-3
2016-10-16	Los Angeles Rams	W 31-28	1479.42	1477.74	57.22%	41.85%	+11.53	3-3
2016-10-23	Washington Redskins	W 20-17	1490.95	1514.06	53.71%	45.36%	+12.48	4-3
2016-10-30	@ Houston Texans	L 13-20	1503.43	1491.61	43.76%	55.32%	-18.40	4-4
2016-11-06	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 22-16	1485.03	1572.31	30.54%	68.53%	+26.61	5-4
2016-11-20	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 26-19	1511.64	1337.03	78.06%	21.01%	+8.87	6-4
2016-11-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 16-13	1520.51	1544.67	53.56%	45.51%	+12.53	7-4
2016-12-04	@ New Orleans Saints	W 28-13	1533.04	1497.65	47.12%	51.95%	+31.93	8-4
2016-12-11	Chicago Bears	W 20-17	1564.97	1368.31	80.09%	18.98%	+5.25	9-4
2016-12-18	@ New York Giants	L 6-17	1570.22	1535.62	47.00%	52.07%	-24.76	9-5
2016-12-26	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 21-42	1545.46	1653.42	28.08%	71.00%	-20.51	9-6
2017-01-01	Green Bay Packers	L 24-31	1524.95	1589.41	47.78%	51.30%	-20.08	9-7
2016-09-11	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 27-23	1545.65	1433.70	58.03%	41.04%	+13.05	1-0
2016-09-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 14-17	1558.70	1557.31	42.28%	56.79%	-11.64	1-1
2016-09-25	Detroit Lions	W 34-27	1547.06	1500.59	63.33%	35.74%	+15.05	2-1
2016-10-09	New York Giants	W 23-16	1562.11	1466.74	69.51%	29.56%	+12.46	3-1
2016-10-16	Dallas Cowboys	L 16-30	1574.57	1542.69	61.38%	37.69%	-36.41	3-2
2016-10-20	Chicago Bears	W 26-10	1538.16	1381.55	76.29%	22.78%	+14.54	4-2
2016-10-30	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 32-33	1552.70	1548.71	42.65%	56.42%	-6.78	4-3
2016-11-06	Indianapolis Colts	L 26-31	1545.92	1444.20	70.26%	28.81%	-24.91	4-4
2016-11-13	@ Tennessee Titans	L 25-47	1521.01	1399.33	59.38%	39.69%	-44.17	4-5
2016-11-20	@ Washington Redskins	L 24-42	1476.84	1520.42	36.12%	62.95%	-24.39	4-6
2016-11-28	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-13	1452.45	1550.38	29.26%	69.82%	+41.41	5-6
2016-12-04	Houston Texans	W 21-13	1493.86	1472.46	59.95%	39.12%	+17.60	6-6
2016-12-11	Seattle Seahawks	W 38-10	1511.46	1656.68	36.49%	62.58%	+52.50	7-6
2016-12-18	@ Chicago Bears	W 30-27	1563.96	1363.06	69.64%	29.43%	+8.12	8-6
2016-12-24	Minnesota Vikings	W 38-25	1572.08	1481.64	68.92%	30.16%	+17.33	9-6
2017-01-01	@ Detroit Lions	W 31-24	1589.41	1524.95	51.30%	47.78%	+20.08	10-6
2016-09-11	Chicago Bears	W 23-14	1502.09	1455.48	63.35%	35.72%	+17.06	1-0
2016-09-18	Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-12	1519.15	1592.16	46.55%	52.52%	+22.05	2-0
2016-09-22	@ New England Patriots	L 0-27	1541.20	1599.78	34.15%	64.92%	-28.26	2-1
2016-10-02	Tennessee Titans	W 27-20	1512.94	1380.03	73.80%	25.27%	+10.66	3-1
2016-10-09	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 13-31	1523.60	1618.27	29.65%	69.42%	-20.04	3-2
2016-10-16	Indianapolis Colts	W 26-23	1503.56	1455.13	63.59%	35.48%	+9.78	4-2
2016-10-24	@ Denver Broncos	L 9-27	1513.34	1587.53	32.16%	66.91%	-21.73	4-3
2016-10-30	Detroit Lions	W 20-13	1491.61	1503.43	55.32%	43.76%	+18.40	5-3
2016-11-13	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-21	1510.01	1346.43	64.99%	34.08%	+9.40	6-3
2016-11-21	@ Oakland Raiders	L 20-27	1519.41	1541.20	46.41%	52.67%	-19.51	6-4
2016-11-27	San Diego Chargers	L 13-21	1499.90	1469.45	61.19%	37.88%	-27.44	6-5
2016-12-04	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-21	1472.46	1493.86	39.12%	59.95%	-17.60	6-6
2016-12-11	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 22-17	1454.86	1496.42	36.39%	62.68%	+22.22	7-6
2016-12-18	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 21-20	1477.08	1296.50	78.63%	20.44%	+3.26	8-6
2016-12-24	Cincinnati Bengals	W 12-10	1480.34	1498.77	54.38%	44.69%	+10.05	9-6
2017-01-01	@ Tennessee Titans	L 17-24	1490.39	1431.73	50.46%	48.61%	-7.07	9-7
2016-09-11	Detroit Lions	L 35-39	1474.88	1494.92	54.15%	44.92%	-17.18	0-1
2016-09-18	@ Denver Broncos	L 20-34	1457.70	1583.27	26.08%	73.00%	-15.56	0-2
2016-09-25	San Diego Chargers	W 26-22	1442.14	1478.81	51.77%	47.30%	+15.03	1-2
2016-10-02	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 27-30	1457.17	1381.96	60.17%	38.90%	-16.53	1-3
2016-10-09	Chicago Bears	W 29-23	1440.64	1404.89	61.90%	37.17%	+14.49	2-3
2016-10-16	@ Houston Texans	L 23-26	1455.13	1503.56	35.48%	63.59%	-9.78	2-4
2016-10-23	@ Tennessee Titans	W 34-26	1445.35	1414.16	46.52%	52.56%	+23.59	3-4
2016-10-30	Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-30	1468.94	1596.59	38.87%	60.20%	-24.74	3-5
2016-11-06	@ Green Bay Packers	W 31-26	1444.20	1545.92	28.81%	70.26%	+24.91	4-5
2016-11-20	Tennessee Titans	W 24-17	1469.11	1443.50	60.53%	38.54%	+16.22	5-5
2016-11-24	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 7-28	1485.33	1528.38	50.85%	48.22%	-36.99	5-6
2016-12-05	@ New York Jets	W 41-10	1448.34	1430.26	44.64%	54.43%	+48.08	6-6
2016-12-11	Houston Texans	L 17-22	1496.42	1454.86	62.68%	36.39%	-22.22	6-7
2016-12-18	@ Minnesota Vikings	W 34-6	1474.20	1536.50	33.67%	65.40%	+54.86	7-7
2016-12-24	@ Oakland Raiders	L 25-33	1529.06	1590.09	33.84%	65.23%	-15.24	7-8
2017-01-01	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 24-20	1513.82	1342.68	77.73%	21.34%	+6.81	8-8
2016-09-11	Green Bay Packers	L 23-27	1433.70	1545.65	41.04%	58.03%	-13.05	0-1
2016-09-18	@ San Diego Chargers	L 14-38	1420.65	1449.06	38.16%	60.91%	-29.75	0-2
2016-09-25	Baltimore Ravens	L 17-19	1390.90	1512.18	39.74%	59.33%	-8.94	0-3
2016-10-02	Indianapolis Colts	W 30-27	1381.96	1457.17	38.90%	60.17%	+16.53	1-3
2016-10-16	@ Chicago Bears	W 17-16	1398.49	1390.40	43.23%	55.85%	+8.86	2-3
2016-10-23	Oakland Raiders	L 16-33	1407.35	1459.81	49.50%	49.57%	-32.41	2-4
2016-10-27	@ Tennessee Titans	L 22-36	1374.94	1390.57	39.91%	59.16%	-23.75	2-5
2016-11-06	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 14-19	1351.19	1621.32	13.30%	85.77%	-4.76	2-6
2016-11-13	Houston Texans	L 21-24	1346.43	1510.01	34.08%	64.99%	-9.40	2-7
2016-11-20	@ Detroit Lions	L 19-26	1337.03	1511.64	21.01%	78.06%	-8.87	2-8
2016-11-27	@ Buffalo Bills	L 21-28	1328.16	1552.83	16.62%	82.45%	-7.03	2-9
2016-12-04	Denver Broncos	L 10-20	1321.13	1586.96	22.30%	76.77%	-11.25	2-10
2016-12-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-25	1309.88	1523.12	27.98%	71.09%	-13.38	2-11
2016-12-18	@ Houston Texans	L 20-21	1296.50	1477.08	20.44%	78.63%	-3.27	2-12
2016-12-24	Tennessee Titans	W 38-17	1293.23	1481.18	31.00%	68.07%	+49.45	3-12
2017-01-01	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 20-24	1342.68	1513.82	21.34%	77.73%	-6.81	3-13
2016-09-11	San Diego Chargers	W 33-27	1581.84	1459.38	72.65%	26.42%	+10.32	1-0
2016-09-18	@ Houston Texans	L 12-19	1592.16	1519.15	52.52%	46.55%	-22.06	1-1
2016-09-25	New York Jets	W 24-3	1570.10	1529.67	62.53%	36.54%	+26.66	2-1
2016-10-02	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-43	1596.76	1566.80	46.34%	52.73%	-39.65	2-2
2016-10-16	@ Oakland Raiders	W 26-10	1557.11	1489.92	51.69%	47.38%	+30.11	3-2
2016-10-23	New Orleans Saints	W 27-21	1587.22	1442.25	75.09%	23.98%	+9.37	4-2
2016-10-30	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 30-14	1596.59	1468.94	60.20%	38.87%	+24.73	5-2
2016-11-06	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 19-14	1621.32	1351.19	85.77%	13.30%	+4.76	6-2
2016-11-13	@ Carolina Panthers	W 20-17	1626.08	1536.87	54.83%	44.24%	+12.18	7-2
2016-11-20	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-19	1638.26	1443.42	79.93%	19.14%	-17.93	7-3
2016-11-27	@ Denver Broncos	W 30-27	1620.33	1601.91	44.69%	54.38%	+14.95	8-3
2016-12-04	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 29-28	1635.28	1584.51	49.33%	49.74%	+7.90	9-3
2016-12-08	Oakland Raiders	W 21-13	1643.18	1595.40	63.51%	35.57%	+16.01	10-3
2016-12-18	Tennessee Titans	L 17-19	1659.19	1463.23	80.03%	19.04%	-17.95	10-4
2016-12-25	Denver Broncos	W 33-10	1641.24	1556.93	68.17%	30.90%	+23.62	11-4
2017-01-01	@ San Diego Chargers	W 37-27	1664.86	1421.25	74.48%	24.59%	+12.41	12-4
2016-09-12	@ San Francisco 49ers	L 0-28	1478.89	1436.85	48.07%	51.00%	-40.39	0-1
2016-09-18	Seattle Seahawks	W 9-3	1438.50	1609.61	33.11%	65.96%	+25.61	1-1
2016-09-25	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 37-32	1464.11	1440.71	45.40%	53.67%	+19.04	2-1
2016-10-02	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 17-13	1483.15	1548.02	33.34%	65.73%	+20.84	3-1
2016-10-09	Buffalo Bills	L 19-30	1503.99	1554.01	49.85%	49.22%	-26.25	3-2
2016-10-16	@ Detroit Lions	L 28-31	1477.74	1479.42	41.85%	57.22%	-11.53	3-3
2016-10-23	New York Giants	L 10-17	1466.21	1469.10	49.12%	49.95%	-20.63	3-4
2016-11-06	Carolina Panthers	L 10-13	1445.58	1524.29	45.73%	53.34%	-12.59	3-5
2016-11-13	@ New York Jets	W 9-6	1432.99	1456.48	38.83%	60.24%	+16.55	4-5
2016-11-20	Miami Dolphins	L 10-14	1449.54	1496.14	50.34%	48.73%	-15.99	4-6
2016-11-27	@ New Orleans Saints	L 21-49	1433.55	1465.97	37.62%	61.45%	-31.67	4-7
2016-12-04	@ New England Patriots	L 10-26	1401.88	1670.08	13.43%	85.64%	-8.59	4-8
2016-12-11	Atlanta Falcons	L 14-42	1393.29	1576.61	31.58%	67.50%	-26.62	4-9
2016-12-15	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 3-24	1366.67	1604.18	15.62%	83.45%	-11.44	4-10
2016-12-24	San Francisco 49ers	L 21-22	1355.23	1247.17	71.01%	28.06%	-11.26	4-11
2017-01-01	Arizona Cardinals	L 6-44	1343.97	1507.42	34.10%	64.97%	-33.47	4-12
2016-09-11	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 10-12	1454.13	1604.32	23.44%	75.63%	-5.28	0-1
2016-09-18	@ New England Patriots	L 24-31	1448.85	1589.47	24.44%	74.63%	-10.32	0-2
2016-09-25	Cleveland Browns	W 30-24	1438.53	1387.73	63.90%	35.17%	+13.72	1-2
2016-09-29	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 7-22	1452.25	1518.45	33.17%	65.90%	-20.47	1-3
2016-10-09	Tennessee Titans	L 17-30	1431.78	1369.36	65.41%	33.66%	-37.39	1-4
2016-10-16	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 30-15	1394.39	1624.13	26.11%	72.97%	+44.80	2-4
2016-10-23	Buffalo Bills	W 28-25	1439.19	1597.51	34.77%	64.31%	+17.66	3-4
2016-11-06	New York Jets	W 27-23	1456.85	1470.47	55.06%	44.01%	+13.99	4-4
2016-11-13	@ San Diego Chargers	W 31-24	1470.84	1494.74	38.77%	60.30%	+25.30	5-4
2016-11-20	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 14-10	1496.14	1449.54	48.73%	50.34%	+15.98	6-4
2016-11-27	San Francisco 49ers	W 31-24	1512.12	1303.73	81.11%	17.96%	+7.59	7-4
2016-12-04	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 6-38	1519.71	1491.99	46.02%	53.05%	-41.36	7-5
2016-12-11	Arizona Cardinals	W 26-23	1478.35	1528.21	49.88%	49.20%	+13.53	8-5
2016-12-17	@ New York Jets	W 34-13	1491.88	1398.19	55.47%	43.60%	+31.76	9-5
2016-12-24	@ Buffalo Bills	W 34-31	1523.64	1523.76	42.07%	57.00%	+15.66	10-5
2017-01-01	New England Patriots	L 14-35	1539.30	1721.51	31.72%	67.36%	-23.15	10-6
2016-09-11	@ Tennessee Titans	W 25-16	1538.97	1407.97	60.66%	38.41%	+18.34	1-0
2016-09-18	Green Bay Packers	W 17-14	1557.31	1558.70	56.79%	42.28%	+11.64	2-0
2016-09-25	@ Carolina Panthers	W 22-10	1568.95	1596.10	38.33%	60.74%	+33.36	3-0
2016-10-03	New York Giants	W 24-10	1602.31	1482.69	72.33%	26.74%	+15.96	4-0
2016-10-09	Houston Texans	W 31-13	1618.27	1523.60	69.42%	29.65%	+20.04	5-0
2016-10-23	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 10-21	1638.31	1550.84	54.59%	44.48%	-28.72	5-1
2016-10-31	@ Chicago Bears	L 10-20	1609.59	1367.01	74.37%	24.70%	-37.28	5-2
2016-11-06	Detroit Lions	L 16-22	1572.31	1485.03	68.53%	30.54%	-26.61	5-3
2016-11-13	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-26	1545.70	1501.61	48.37%	50.71%	-18.82	5-4
2016-11-20	Arizona Cardinals	W 30-24	1526.88	1552.36	53.38%	45.70%	+17.79	6-4
2016-11-24	@ Detroit Lions	L 13-16	1544.67	1520.51	45.51%	53.56%	-12.53	6-5
2016-12-01	Dallas Cowboys	L 15-17	1532.14	1650.63	40.13%	58.94%	-9.02	6-6
2016-12-11	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 25-16	1523.12	1309.88	71.09%	27.98%	+13.38	7-6
2016-12-18	Indianapolis Colts	L 6-34	1536.50	1474.20	65.40%	33.67%	-54.86	7-7
2016-12-24	@ Green Bay Packers	L 25-38	1481.64	1572.08	30.16%	68.92%	-17.33	7-8
2017-01-01	Chicago Bears	W 38-10	1464.31	1329.05	74.06%	25.01%	+21.12	8-8
2016-09-11	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 23-21	1576.96	1568.09	43.34%	55.73%	+12.51	1-0
2016-09-18	Miami Dolphins	W 31-24	1589.47	1448.85	74.63%	24.44%	+10.31	2-0
2016-09-22	Houston Texans	W 27-0	1599.78	1541.20	64.92%	34.15%	+28.26	3-0
2016-10-02	Buffalo Bills	L 0-16	1628.04	1508.13	72.36%	26.71%	-45.88	3-1
2016-10-09	@ Cleveland Browns	W 33-13	1582.16	1357.15	72.44%	26.63%	+18.99	4-1
2016-10-16	Cincinnati Bengals	W 35-17	1601.15	1511.93	68.77%	30.31%	+20.49	5-1
2016-10-23	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	W 27-16	1621.64	1579.33	48.11%	50.96%	+26.83	6-1
2016-10-30	@ Buffalo Bills	W 41-25	1648.47	1579.85	51.89%	47.18%	+29.97	7-1
2016-11-13	Seattle Seahawks	L 24-31	1678.44	1620.31	64.86%	34.21%	-27.20	7-2
2016-11-20	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 30-17	1651.24	1312.89	83.17%	15.90%	+9.16	8-2
2016-11-27	@ New York Jets	W 22-17	1660.40	1439.94	71.92%	27.15%	+9.68	9-2
2016-12-04	Los Angeles Rams	W 26-10	1670.08	1401.88	85.64%	13.43%	+8.59	10-2
2016-12-12	Baltimore Ravens	W 30-23	1678.67	1533.35	75.13%	23.94%	+10.11	11-2
2016-12-18	@ Denver Broncos	W 16-3	1688.78	1580.77	57.48%	41.59%	+23.84	12-2
2016-12-24	New York Jets	W 41-3	1712.62	1366.43	90.06%	9.01%	+8.89	13-2
2017-01-01	@ Miami Dolphins	W 35-14	1721.51	1539.30	67.36%	31.72%	+23.15	14-2
2016-09-11	Oakland Raiders	L 34-35	1466.17	1463.40	57.37%	41.70%	-9.10	0-1
2016-09-18	@ New York Giants	L 13-16	1457.07	1486.88	37.97%	61.10%	-10.47	0-2
2016-09-26	Atlanta Falcons	L 32-45	1446.60	1487.13	51.22%	47.85%	-29.31	0-3
2016-10-02	@ San Diego Chargers	W 35-34	1417.29	1463.78	35.74%	63.34%	+10.04	1-3
2016-10-16	Carolina Panthers	W 41-38	1427.33	1512.57	44.80%	54.27%	+14.92	2-3
2016-10-23	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 21-27	1442.25	1587.22	23.98%	75.09%	-9.37	2-4
2016-10-30	Seattle Seahawks	W 25-20	1432.88	1631.50	29.70%	69.37%	+24.58	3-4
2016-11-06	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 41-23	1457.46	1345.00	58.11%	40.97%	+27.64	4-4
2016-11-13	Denver Broncos	L 23-25	1485.10	1592.54	41.67%	57.40%	-9.37	4-5
2016-11-17	@ Carolina Panthers	L 20-23	1475.73	1524.69	35.41%	63.66%	-9.76	4-6
2016-11-27	Los Angeles Rams	W 49-21	1465.97	1433.55	61.45%	37.62%	+31.68	5-6
2016-12-04	Detroit Lions	L 13-28	1497.65	1533.04	51.95%	47.12%	-31.94	5-7
2016-12-11	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 11-16	1465.71	1518.61	34.89%	64.18%	-12.42	5-8
2016-12-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	W 48-41	1453.29	1514.68	33.79%	65.28%	+27.38	6-8
2016-12-24	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 31-24	1480.67	1520.23	51.36%	47.72%	+20.05	7-8
2017-01-01	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 32-38	1500.72	1642.42	24.33%	74.75%	-9.51	7-9
2016-09-11	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 20-19	1478.10	1466.24	43.76%	55.31%	+8.78	1-0
2016-09-18	New Orleans Saints	W 16-13	1486.88	1457.07	61.10%	37.97%	+10.46	2-0
2016-09-25	Washington Redskins	L 27-29	1497.34	1435.49	65.34%	33.73%	-14.65	2-1
2016-10-03	@ Minnesota Vikings	L 10-24	1482.69	1602.31	26.74%	72.33%	-15.95	2-2
2016-10-09	@ Green Bay Packers	L 16-23	1466.74	1562.11	29.56%	69.51%	-12.47	2-3
2016-10-16	Baltimore Ravens	W 27-23	1454.27	1486.50	52.41%	46.66%	+14.83	3-3
2016-10-23	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 17-10	1469.10	1466.21	49.95%	49.12%	+20.63	4-3
2016-11-06	Philadelphia Eagles	W 28-23	1489.73	1563.15	46.49%	52.58%	+18.66	5-3
2016-11-14	Cincinnati Bengals	W 21-20	1508.39	1504.77	57.49%	41.58%	+6.61	6-3
2016-11-20	Chicago Bears	W 22-16	1515.00	1370.80	75.01%	24.06%	+9.41	7-3
2016-11-27	@ Cleveland Browns	W 27-13	1524.41	1260.72	76.56%	22.51%	+13.44	8-3
2016-12-04	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 14-24	1537.85	1565.38	38.28%	60.79%	-19.26	8-4
2016-12-11	Dallas Cowboys	W 10-7	1518.59	1659.65	37.05%	62.02%	+17.03	9-4
2016-12-18	Detroit Lions	W 17-6	1535.62	1570.22	52.07%	47.00%	+24.77	10-4
2016-12-22	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 19-24	1560.39	1452.89	57.41%	41.66%	-20.37	10-5
2017-01-01	@ Washington Redskins	W 19-10	1540.02	1527.00	43.93%	55.15%	+8.75	11-5
2016-09-11	Cincinnati Bengals	L 22-23	1516.51	1554.22	51.62%	47.45%	-8.20	0-1
2016-09-15	@ Buffalo Bills	W 37-31	1508.31	1493.91	44.12%	54.95%	+21.36	1-1
2016-09-25	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 3-24	1529.67	1570.10	36.54%	62.53%	-26.65	1-2
2016-10-02	Seattle Seahawks	L 17-27	1503.02	1602.01	42.85%	56.22%	-21.55	1-3
2016-10-09	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 13-31	1481.47	1606.44	26.14%	72.93%	-17.68	1-4
2016-10-17	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 3-28	1463.79	1550.03	30.67%	68.40%	-24.44	1-5
2016-10-23	Baltimore Ravens	W 24-16	1439.35	1471.67	52.40%	46.68%	+20.98	2-5
2016-10-30	@ Cleveland Browns	W 31-28	1460.33	1317.40	62.27%	36.80%	+10.14	3-5
2016-11-06	@ Miami Dolphins	L 23-27	1470.47	1456.85	44.01%	55.06%	-13.99	3-6
2016-11-13	Los Angeles Rams	L 6-9	1456.48	1432.99	60.24%	38.83%	-16.54	3-7
2016-11-27	New England Patriots	L 17-22	1439.94	1660.40	27.15%	71.92%	-9.68	3-8
2016-12-05	Indianapolis Colts	L 10-41	1430.26	1448.34	54.43%	44.64%	-48.08	3-9
2016-12-11	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 23-17	1382.18	1270.72	57.97%	41.11%	+16.01	4-9
2016-12-17	Miami Dolphins	L 13-34	1398.19	1491.88	43.60%	55.47%	-31.76	4-10
2016-12-24	@ New England Patriots	L 3-41	1366.43	1712.62	9.01%	90.06%	-8.89	4-11
2017-01-01	Buffalo Bills	W 30-10	1357.54	1508.10	35.79%	63.29%	+44.87	5-11
2016-09-11	@ New Orleans Saints	W 35-34	1463.40	1466.17	41.70%	57.37%	+9.10	1-0
2016-09-18	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-35	1472.50	1462.65	58.36%	40.71%	-24.49	1-1
2016-09-25	@ Tennessee Titans	W 17-10	1448.01	1401.16	48.76%	50.31%	+21.13	2-1
2016-10-02	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 28-27	1469.14	1521.12	35.01%	64.06%	+10.16	3-1
2016-10-09	San Diego Chargers	W 34-31	1479.30	1453.74	60.52%	38.55%	+10.62	4-1
2016-10-16	Kansas City Chiefs	L 10-26	1489.92	1557.11	47.38%	51.69%	-30.11	4-2
2016-10-23	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	W 33-16	1459.81	1407.35	49.57%	49.50%	+32.41	5-2
2016-10-30	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	W 30-24	1492.22	1454.51	47.45%	51.62%	+20.07	6-2
2016-11-06	Denver Broncos	W 30-20	1512.29	1621.45	41.43%	57.65%	+28.91	7-2
2016-11-21	Houston Texans	W 27-20	1541.20	1519.41	52.67%	46.41%	+19.51	8-2
2016-11-27	Carolina Panthers	W 35-32	1560.71	1534.46	60.62%	38.45%	+10.59	9-2
2016-12-04	Buffalo Bills	W 38-24	1571.30	1559.86	58.58%	40.49%	+24.10	10-2
2016-12-08	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 13-21	1595.40	1643.18	35.57%	63.51%	-16.02	10-3
2016-12-18	@ San Diego Chargers	W 19-16	1579.38	1451.57	60.23%	38.85%	+10.71	11-3
2016-12-24	Indianapolis Colts	W 33-25	1590.09	1529.06	65.23%	33.84%	+15.24	12-3
2017-01-01	@ Denver Broncos	L 6-24	1605.33	1533.31	52.38%	46.69%	-35.27	12-4
2016-09-11	Cleveland Browns	W 29-10	1482.49	1427.25	64.49%	34.59%	+24.01	1-0
2016-09-19	@ Chicago Bears	W 29-14	1506.50	1438.42	51.82%	47.26%	+29.07	2-0
2016-09-25	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 34-3	1535.57	1613.87	45.79%	53.28%	+47.07	3-0
2016-10-09	@ Detroit Lions	L 23-24	1582.64	1470.21	58.10%	40.97%	-9.21	3-1
2016-10-16	@ Washington Redskins	L 20-27	1573.43	1491.47	53.80%	45.27%	-22.59	3-2
2016-10-23	Minnesota Vikings	W 21-10	1550.84	1638.31	44.48%	54.59%	+28.72	4-2
2016-10-30	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 23-29	1579.56	1579.10	42.15%	56.92%	-16.41	4-3
2016-11-06	@ New York Giants	L 23-28	1563.15	1489.73	52.58%	46.49%	-18.66	4-4
2016-11-13	Atlanta Falcons	W 24-15	1544.49	1579.99	51.94%	47.13%	+22.46	5-4
2016-11-20	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 15-26	1566.95	1647.52	31.37%	67.70%	-16.57	5-5
2016-11-28	Green Bay Packers	L 13-27	1550.38	1452.45	69.82%	29.26%	-41.41	5-6
2016-12-04	@ Cincinnati Bengals	L 14-32	1508.97	1466.58	48.12%	50.95%	-32.43	5-7
2016-12-11	Washington Redskins	L 22-27	1476.54	1513.66	51.71%	47.37%	-18.35	5-8
2016-12-18	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 26-27	1458.19	1523.25	33.32%	65.75%	-5.30	5-9
2016-12-22	New York Giants	W 24-19	1452.89	1560.39	41.66%	57.41%	+20.36	6-9
2017-01-01	Dallas Cowboys	W 27-13	1473.25	1673.93	29.46%	69.61%	+13.76	7-9
2016-09-12	@ Washington Redskins	W 38-16	1562.57	1487.90	52.76%	46.31%	+34.51	1-0
2016-09-18	Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-16	1597.08	1562.41	61.76%	37.31%	+16.79	2-0
2016-09-25	@ Philadelphia Eagles	L 3-34	1613.87	1535.57	53.28%	45.79%	-47.07	2-1
2016-10-02	Kansas City Chiefs	W 43-14	1566.80	1596.76	52.73%	46.34%	+39.64	3-1
2016-10-09	New York Jets	W 31-13	1606.44	1481.47	72.93%	26.14%	+17.69	4-1
2016-10-16	@ Miami Dolphins	L 15-30	1624.13	1394.39	72.97%	26.11%	-44.80	4-2
2016-10-23	New England Patriots	L 16-27	1579.33	1621.64	50.96%	48.11%	-26.83	4-3
2016-11-06	@ Baltimore Ravens	L 14-21	1552.50	1450.70	56.61%	42.46%	-23.76	4-4
2016-11-13	Dallas Cowboys	L 30-35	1528.74	1611.60	45.14%	53.93%	-16.04	4-5
2016-11-20	@ Cleveland Browns	W 24-9	1512.70	1276.40	73.69%	25.38%	+15.68	5-5
2016-11-24	@ Indianapolis Colts	W 28-7	1528.38	1485.33	48.22%	50.85%	+37.00	6-5
2016-12-04	New York Giants	W 24-14	1565.38	1537.85	60.79%	38.28%	+19.26	7-5
2016-12-11	@ Buffalo Bills	W 27-20	1584.64	1535.77	49.05%	50.02%	+21.01	8-5
2016-12-18	@ Cincinnati Bengals	W 24-20	1605.65	1512.66	55.37%	43.70%	+13.89	9-5
2016-12-25	Baltimore Ravens	W 31-27	1619.54	1528.55	68.98%	30.09%	+9.59	10-5
2017-01-01	Cleveland Browns	W 27-24	1629.13	1244.23	91.73%	7.34%	+0.68	11-5
2016-09-11	@ Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-33	1459.38	1581.84	26.42%	72.65%	-10.32	0-1
2016-09-18	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 38-14	1449.06	1420.65	60.91%	38.16%	+29.75	1-1
2016-09-25	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 22-26	1478.81	1442.14	47.30%	51.77%	-15.03	1-2
2016-10-02	New Orleans Saints	L 34-35	1463.78	1417.29	63.34%	35.74%	-10.04	1-3
2016-10-09	@ Oakland Raiders	L 31-34	1453.74	1479.30	38.55%	60.52%	-10.62	1-4
2016-10-13	Denver Broncos	W 21-13	1443.12	1617.28	32.73%	66.35%	+29.74	2-4
2016-10-23	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 33-30	1472.86	1567.78	29.62%	69.45%	+19.07	3-4
2016-10-30	@ Denver Broncos	L 19-27	1491.93	1609.27	27.00%	72.07%	-12.17	3-5
2016-11-06	Tennessee Titans	W 43-35	1479.76	1414.32	65.80%	33.27%	+14.98	4-5
2016-11-13	Miami Dolphins	L 24-31	1494.74	1470.84	60.30%	38.77%	-25.29	4-6
2016-11-27	@ Houston Texans	W 21-13	1469.45	1499.90	37.88%	61.19%	+27.44	5-6
2016-12-04	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 21-28	1496.89	1494.56	57.31%	41.76%	-24.05	5-7
2016-12-11	@ Carolina Panthers	L 16-28	1472.84	1498.05	38.60%	60.48%	-21.27	5-8
2016-12-18	Oakland Raiders	L 16-19	1451.57	1579.38	38.85%	60.23%	-10.71	5-9
2016-12-24	@ Cleveland Browns	L 17-20	1440.86	1224.62	71.44%	27.63%	-19.61	5-10
2017-01-01	Kansas City Chiefs	L 27-37	1421.25	1664.86	24.59%	74.48%	-12.41	5-11
2016-09-12	Los Angeles Rams	W 28-0	1436.85	1478.89	51.00%	48.07%	+40.40	1-0
2016-09-18	@ Carolina Panthers	L 27-46	1477.25	1575.83	29.18%	69.89%	-20.27	1-1
2016-09-25	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 18-37	1456.98	1583.99	25.92%	73.16%	-18.01	1-2
2016-10-02	Dallas Cowboys	L 17-24	1438.97	1495.14	48.97%	50.10%	-20.58	1-3
2016-10-06	Arizona Cardinals	L 21-33	1418.39	1527.18	41.48%	57.59%	-22.84	1-4
2016-10-16	@ Buffalo Bills	L 16-45	1395.55	1580.26	20.06%	79.01%	-17.25	1-5
2016-10-23	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 17-34	1378.30	1421.21	50.88%	48.20%	-33.30	1-6
2016-11-06	New Orleans Saints	L 23-41	1345.00	1457.46	40.97%	58.11%	-27.64	1-7
2016-11-13	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 20-23	1317.36	1547.88	16.16%	82.91%	-4.47	1-8
2016-11-20	New England Patriots	L 17-30	1312.89	1651.24	15.90%	83.17%	-9.16	1-9
2016-11-27	@ Miami Dolphins	L 24-31	1303.73	1512.12	17.96%	81.11%	-7.59	1-10
2016-12-04	@ Chicago Bears	L 6-26	1296.14	1342.89	35.70%	63.37%	-25.42	1-11
2016-12-11	New York Jets	L 17-23	1270.72	1382.18	41.11%	57.97%	-16.01	1-12
2016-12-18	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 13-41	1254.71	1603.23	8.90%	90.17%	-7.54	1-13
2016-12-24	@ Los Angeles Rams	W 22-21	1247.17	1355.23	28.06%	71.01%	+11.26	2-13
2017-01-01	Seattle Seahawks	L 23-25	1258.43	1595.50	16.00%	83.07%	-3.62	2-14
2016-09-11	Miami Dolphins	W 12-10	1604.32	1454.13	75.63%	23.44%	+5.29	1-0
2016-09-18	@ Los Angeles Rams	L 3-9	1609.61	1438.50	65.96%	33.11%	-25.62	1-1
2016-09-25	San Francisco 49ers	W 37-18	1583.99	1456.98	73.16%	25.92%	+18.02	2-1
2016-10-02	@ New York Jets	W 27-17	1602.01	1503.02	56.22%	42.85%	+21.54	3-1
2016-10-16	Atlanta Falcons	W 26-24	1623.55	1575.78	63.50%	35.57%	+8.01	4-1
2016-10-23	@ Arizona Cardinals	T 6-6	1631.56	1574.46	50.24%	48.83%	-0.06	4-1
2016-10-30	@ New Orleans Saints	L 20-25	1631.50	1432.88	69.37%	29.70%	-24.58	4-2
2016-11-07	Buffalo Bills	W 31-25	1606.92	1549.87	64.72%	34.35%	+13.39	5-2
2016-11-13	@ New England Patriots	W 31-24	1620.31	1678.44	34.21%	64.86%	+27.21	6-2
2016-11-20	Philadelphia Eagles	W 26-15	1647.52	1566.95	67.70%	31.37%	+16.57	7-2
2016-11-27	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	L 5-14	1664.09	1461.34	69.86%	29.21%	-33.22	7-3
2016-12-04	Carolina Panthers	W 40-7	1630.87	1523.86	70.89%	28.19%	+25.81	8-3
2016-12-11	@ Green Bay Packers	L 10-38	1656.68	1511.46	62.58%	36.49%	-52.50	8-4
2016-12-15	Los Angeles Rams	W 24-3	1604.18	1366.67	83.45%	15.62%	+11.44	9-4
2016-12-24	Arizona Cardinals	L 31-34	1615.62	1487.30	73.30%	25.77%	-20.12	9-5
2017-01-01	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 25-23	1595.50	1258.43	83.07%	16.00%	+3.61	10-5
2016-09-11	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 31-24	1442.11	1489.25	35.65%	63.42%	+26.60	1-0
2016-09-18	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 7-40	1468.71	1555.58	30.59%	68.48%	-28.00	1-1
2016-09-25	Los Angeles Rams	L 32-37	1440.71	1464.11	53.67%	45.40%	-19.04	1-2
2016-10-02	Denver Broncos	L 7-27	1421.67	1625.99	29.02%	70.05%	-20.69	1-3
2016-10-10	@ Carolina Panthers	W 17-14	1400.98	1532.80	25.39%	73.69%	+20.23	2-3
2016-10-23	@ San Francisco 49ers	W 34-17	1421.21	1378.30	48.20%	50.88%	+33.30	3-3
2016-10-30	Oakland Raiders	L 24-30	1454.51	1492.22	51.62%	47.45%	-20.07	3-4
2016-11-03	Atlanta Falcons	L 28-43	1434.44	1555.49	39.78%	59.30%	-24.51	3-5
2016-11-13	Chicago Bears	W 36-10	1409.93	1404.29	57.77%	41.30%	+33.49	4-5
2016-11-20	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-17	1443.42	1638.26	19.14%	79.93%	+17.92	5-5
2016-11-27	Seattle Seahawks	W 14-5	1461.34	1664.09	29.21%	69.86%	+33.22	6-5
2016-12-04	@ San Diego Chargers	W 28-21	1494.56	1496.89	41.76%	57.31%	+24.05	7-5
2016-12-11	New Orleans Saints	W 16-11	1518.61	1465.71	64.18%	34.89%	+12.43	8-5
2016-12-18	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 20-26	1531.04	1642.62	27.66%	71.42%	-10.81	8-6
2016-12-24	@ New Orleans Saints	L 24-31	1520.23	1480.67	47.72%	51.36%	-20.05	8-7
2017-01-01	Carolina Panthers	W 17-16	1500.18	1518.57	54.38%	44.69%	+7.10	9-7
2016-09-11	Minnesota Vikings	L 16-25	1407.97	1538.97	38.41%	60.66%	-18.33	0-1
2016-09-18	@ Detroit Lions	W 16-15	1389.64	1512.10	26.42%	72.65%	+11.52	1-1
2016-09-25	Oakland Raiders	L 10-17	1401.16	1448.01	50.31%	48.76%	-21.13	1-2
2016-10-02	@ Houston Texans	L 20-27	1380.03	1512.94	25.27%	73.80%	-10.67	1-3
2016-10-09	@ Miami Dolphins	W 30-17	1369.36	1431.78	33.66%	65.41%	+37.39	2-3
2016-10-16	Cleveland Browns	W 28-26	1406.75	1338.16	66.20%	32.87%	+7.41	3-3
2016-10-23	Indianapolis Colts	L 26-34	1414.16	1445.35	52.56%	46.52%	-23.59	3-4
2016-10-27	Jacksonville Jaguars	W 36-22	1390.57	1374.94	59.16%	39.91%	+23.75	4-4
2016-11-06	@ San Diego Chargers	L 35-43	1414.32	1479.76	33.27%	65.80%	-14.99	4-5
2016-11-13	Green Bay Packers	W 47-25	1399.33	1521.01	39.69%	59.38%	+44.17	5-5
2016-11-20	@ Indianapolis Colts	L 17-24	1443.50	1469.11	38.54%	60.53%	-16.22	5-6
2016-11-27	@ Chicago Bears	W 27-21	1427.28	1361.40	51.50%	47.57%	+18.50	6-6
2016-12-11	Denver Broncos	W 13-10	1445.78	1598.22	35.54%	63.53%	+17.45	7-6
2016-12-18	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 19-17	1463.23	1659.19	19.04%	80.03%	+17.95	8-6
2016-12-24	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	L 17-38	1481.18	1293.23	68.07%	31.00%	-49.45	8-7
2017-01-01	Houston Texans	W 24-17	1431.73	1490.39	48.61%	50.46%	+7.06	9-7
2016-09-12	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-38	1487.90	1562.57	46.31%	52.76%	-34.51	0-1
2016-09-18	Dallas Cowboys	L 23-27	1453.39	1457.46	56.41%	42.66%	-17.90	0-2
2016-09-25	@ New York Giants	W 29-27	1435.49	1497.34	33.73%	65.34%	+14.65	1-2
2016-10-02	Cleveland Browns	W 31-20	1450.14	1374.02	67.15%	31.92%	+16.86	2-2
2016-10-09	@ Baltimore Ravens	W 16-10	1467.00	1510.96	36.07%	63.00%	+24.47	3-2
2016-10-16	Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-20	1491.47	1573.43	45.27%	53.80%	+22.59	4-2
2016-10-23	@ Detroit Lions	L 17-20	1514.06	1490.95	45.36%	53.71%	-12.49	4-3
2016-10-30	@ Cincinnati Bengals	T 27-27	1501.57	1504.80	49.07%	50.00%	+0.04	4-3
2016-11-13	Minnesota Vikings	W 26-20	1501.61	1545.70	50.71%	48.37%	+18.81	5-3
2016-11-20	Green Bay Packers	W 42-24	1520.42	1476.84	62.95%	36.12%	+24.40	6-3
2016-11-24	@ Dallas Cowboys	L 26-31	1544.82	1640.09	29.57%	69.50%	-10.54	6-4
2016-12-04	@ Arizona Cardinals	L 23-31	1534.28	1507.59	45.87%	53.20%	-20.62	6-5
2016-12-11	@ Philadelphia Eagles	W 27-22	1513.66	1476.54	47.37%	51.71%	+18.35	7-5
2016-12-19	Carolina Panthers	L 15-26	1532.01	1519.32	58.75%	40.32%	-30.90	7-6
2016-12-24	@ Chicago Bears	W 41-21	1501.11	1354.93	62.71%	36.37%	+25.89	8-6
2017-01-01	New York Giants	L 10-19	1527.00	1540.02	55.15%	43.93%	-8.75	8-7

Playoff Games

Every playoff game from each team's perspective, controlled by the team filter above. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
2017-01-14	Seattle Seahawks	W 36-20	1651.92	1620.28	61.84%	38.16%	+24.01	1-0
2017-01-22	Green Bay Packers	W 44-21	1675.93	1653.01	60.65%	39.35%	+29.69	2-0
2017-02-05	New England Patriots	L 28-34	1705.62	1776.32	39.96%	60.04%	-15.40	2-1
2017-01-15	Green Bay Packers	L 31-34	1660.17	1636.46	60.76%	39.24%	-16.55	0-1
2017-01-07	@ Seattle Seahawks	L 6-26	1504.87	1599.11	30.09%	69.91%	-21.16	0-1
2017-01-08	New York Giants	W 38-13	1609.49	1548.77	65.70%	34.30%	+26.97	1-0
2017-01-15	@ Dallas Cowboys	W 34-31	1636.46	1660.17	39.24%	60.76%	+16.55	2-0
2017-01-22	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 21-44	1653.01	1675.93	39.35%	60.65%	-29.68	2-1
2017-01-07	Oakland Raiders	W 27-14	1483.32	1570.06	45.05%	54.95%	+31.17	1-0
2017-01-14	@ New England Patriots	L 16-34	1514.49	1744.66	16.44%	83.56%	-10.98	1-1
2017-01-15	Pittsburgh Steelers	L 16-18	1677.27	1648.36	61.47%	38.53%	-13.68	0-1
2017-01-08	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	L 12-30	1516.15	1629.81	27.79%	72.21%	-18.55	0-1
2017-01-14	Houston Texans	W 34-16	1744.66	1514.49	83.56%	16.44%	+10.97	1-0
2017-01-22	Pittsburgh Steelers	W 36-17	1755.63	1662.03	69.83%	30.17%	+20.69	2-0
2017-02-05	@ Atlanta Falcons	W 34-28	1776.32	1705.62	60.04%	39.96%	+15.40	3-0
2017-01-08	@ Green Bay Packers	L 13-38	1548.77	1609.49	34.30%	65.70%	-26.97	0-1
2017-01-07	@ Houston Texans	L 14-27	1570.06	1483.32	54.95%	45.05%	-31.16	0-1
2017-01-08	Miami Dolphins	W 30-12	1629.81	1516.15	72.21%	27.79%	+18.55	1-0
2017-01-15	@ Kansas City Chiefs	W 18-16	1648.36	1677.27	38.53%	61.47%	+13.67	2-0
2017-01-22	@ New England Patriots	L 17-36	1662.03	1755.63	30.17%	69.83%	-20.68	2-1
2017-01-07	Detroit Lions	W 26-6	1599.11	1504.87	69.91%	30.09%	+21.17	1-0
2017-01-14	@ Atlanta Falcons	L 20-36	1620.28	1651.92	38.16%	61.84%	-24.01	1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2016-12-18	19.04%	Tennessee Titans	1463.23	19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1659.19	17
2	2016-11-20	19.14%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1443.42	19	@ Kansas City Chiefs	1638.26	17
3	2016-10-31	24.70%	@ Chicago Bears	1367.01	20	Minnesota Vikings	1609.59	10
4	2016-10-10	25.39%	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1400.98	17	@ Carolina Panthers	1532.80	14
5	2016-12-24	25.77%	Arizona Cardinals	1487.30	34	@ Seattle Seahawks	1615.62	31
6	2016-10-16	26.11%	@ Miami Dolphins	1394.39	30	Pittsburgh Steelers	1624.13	15
7	2016-09-18	26.42%	Tennessee Titans	1389.64	16	@ Detroit Lions	1512.10	15
8	2016-10-02	26.71%	Buffalo Bills	1508.13	16	@ New England Patriots	1628.04	0
9	2016-12-24	27.63%	@ Cleveland Browns	1224.62	20	San Diego Chargers	1440.86	17
10	2016-12-24	28.06%	San Francisco 49ers	1247.17	22	@ Los Angeles Rams	1355.23	21
11	2016-11-06	28.81%	Indianapolis Colts	1444.20	31	@ Green Bay Packers	1545.92	26
12	2016-10-09	28.98%	Atlanta Falcons	1546.39	23	@ Denver Broncos	1646.68	16
13	2016-11-27	29.21%	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1461.34	14	Seattle Seahawks	1664.09	5
14	2016-11-28	29.26%	Green Bay Packers	1452.45	27	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1550.38	13
15	2017-01-01	29.46%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	1473.25	27	Dallas Cowboys	1673.93	13
16	2016-10-23	29.62%	San Diego Chargers	1472.86	33	@ Atlanta Falcons	1567.78	30
17	2016-10-30	29.70%	@ New Orleans Saints	1432.88	25	Seattle Seahawks	1631.50	20
18	2016-11-06	30.54%	Detroit Lions	1485.03	22	@ Minnesota Vikings	1572.31	16
19	2016-12-24	31.00%	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	1293.23	38	Tennessee Titans	1481.18	17
20	2016-10-13	32.73%	@ San Diego Chargers	1443.12	21	Denver Broncos	1617.28	13
21	2016-09-18	33.11%	@ Los Angeles Rams	1438.50	9	Seattle Seahawks	1609.61	3
22	2016-10-02	33.34%	Los Angeles Rams	1483.15	17	@ Arizona Cardinals	1548.02	13
23	2016-10-09	33.66%	Tennessee Titans	1369.36	30	@ Miami Dolphins	1431.78	17
24	2016-12-18	33.67%	Indianapolis Colts	1474.20	34	@ Minnesota Vikings	1536.50	6
25	2016-09-25	33.73%	Washington Redskins	1435.49	29	@ New York Giants	1497.34	27

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %
1	2016-12-18	54.86	Indianapolis Colts	34	1474.20	33.67%	@ Minnesota Vikings	6	1536.50	65.40%
2	2016-12-11	52.50	@ Green Bay Packers	38	1511.46	36.49%	Seattle Seahawks	10	1656.68	62.58%
3	2016-12-24	49.45	@ Jacksonville Jaguars	38	1293.23	31.00%	Tennessee Titans	17	1481.18	68.07%
4	2016-12-05	48.08	Indianapolis Colts	41	1448.34	44.64%	@ New York Jets	10	1430.26	54.43%
5	2016-09-25	47.07	@ Philadelphia Eagles	34	1535.57	45.79%	Pittsburgh Steelers	3	1613.87	53.28%
6	2016-10-02	45.88	Buffalo Bills	16	1508.13	26.71%	@ New England Patriots	0	1628.04	72.36%
7	2017-01-01	44.87	@ New York Jets	30	1357.54	35.79%	Buffalo Bills	10	1508.10	63.29%
8	2016-10-16	44.80	@ Miami Dolphins	30	1394.39	26.11%	Pittsburgh Steelers	15	1624.13	72.97%
9	2016-11-13	44.17	@ Tennessee Titans	47	1399.33	39.69%	Green Bay Packers	25	1521.01	59.38%
10	2016-11-28	41.41	Green Bay Packers	27	1452.45	29.26%	@ Philadelphia Eagles	13	1550.38	69.82%
11	2016-12-04	41.36	@ Baltimore Ravens	38	1491.99	53.05%	Miami Dolphins	6	1519.71	46.02%
12	2016-09-12	40.40	@ San Francisco 49ers	28	1436.85	51.00%	Los Angeles Rams	0	1478.89	48.07%
13	2016-10-02	39.65	@ Pittsburgh Steelers	43	1566.80	52.73%	Kansas City Chiefs	14	1596.76	46.34%
14	2016-10-09	37.39	Tennessee Titans	30	1369.36	33.66%	@ Miami Dolphins	17	1431.78	65.41%
15	2016-10-31	37.28	@ Chicago Bears	20	1367.01	24.70%	Minnesota Vikings	10	1609.59	74.37%
16	2016-11-24	37.00	Pittsburgh Steelers	28	1528.38	48.22%	@ Indianapolis Colts	7	1485.33	50.85%
17	2016-10-16	36.41	Dallas Cowboys	30	1542.69	37.69%	@ Green Bay Packers	16	1574.57	61.38%
18	2016-09-25	35.57	@ Buffalo Bills	33	1472.56	41.17%	Arizona Cardinals	18	1583.59	57.91%
19	2017-01-01	35.27	@ Denver Broncos	24	1533.31	46.69%	Oakland Raiders	6	1605.33	52.38%
20	2016-09-12	34.51	Pittsburgh Steelers	38	1562.57	52.76%	@ Washington Redskins	16	1487.90	46.31%
21	2016-11-13	33.49	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	36	1409.93	57.77%	Chicago Bears	10	1404.29	41.30%
22	2017-01-01	33.47	Arizona Cardinals	44	1507.42	64.97%	@ Los Angeles Rams	6	1343.97	34.10%
23	2016-09-25	33.36	Minnesota Vikings	22	1568.95	38.33%	@ Carolina Panthers	10	1596.10	60.74%
24	2016-10-23	33.30	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	34	1421.21	48.20%	@ San Francisco 49ers	17	1378.30	50.88%
25	2016-11-27	33.22	@ Tampa Bay Buccaneers	14	1461.34	29.21%	Seattle Seahawks	5	1664.09	69.86%