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2018-19 Macedonian First Football League Season

180 games

Final

Champion

Shkendija

79 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Makedonija GP

11.56 points above expected

47 points · 35.44 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Pobeda

14.92 points below expected

23 points · 37.92 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Shkendija 36 24 7 5 79 80 29 +51 79.52 -0.52
2 Vardar 36 17 13 6 64 45 23 +22 63.51 +0.49
3 AP Brera Strumica 36 17 7 12 58 45 35 +10 53.42 +4.58
4 Shkupi 36 13 9 14 48 40 42 -2 53.42 -5.42
5 Renova 36 12 11 13 47 53 49 +4 46.63 +0.37
6 Makedonija GP 36 12 11 13 47 45 50 -5 35.44 +11.56
7 Rabotnicki 36 13 7 16 46 43 49 -6 49.70 -3.70
8 Sileks 36 11 11 14 44 27 39 -12 44.33 -0.33
9 Belasica 36 9 11 16 38 37 49 -12 31.66 +6.34
10 Pobeda 36 6 5 25 23 26 76 -50 37.92 -14.92

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Makedonija GP 47 35.44 +11.56
2 Belasica 38 31.66 +6.34
3 AP Brera Strumica 58 53.42 +4.58
4 Vardar 64 63.51 +0.49
5 Renova 47 46.63 +0.37

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Pobeda 23 37.92 -14.92
2 Shkupi 48 53.42 -5.42
3 Rabotnicki 46 49.70 -3.70
4 Shkendija 79 79.52 -0.52
5 Sileks 44 44.33 -0.33

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vardar 5 Sep 16 – Oct 6 1 in 45
2 Shkupi 3 Feb 24 – Mar 10 1 in 31
3 Shkendija 7 Oct 21 – Nov 25 1 in 29
4 Belasica 2 Sep 23 – Sep 26 1 in 25
5 Renova 2 Sep 26 – Sep 29 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shkupi 5 Mar 16 – Apr 7 1 in 859
2 Rabotnicki 4 Apr 20 – May 4 1 in 64
3 Pobeda 7 Apr 27 – May 26 1 in 42
4 Vardar 2 Nov 10 – Nov 22 1 in 20
5 Shkendija 1 Sep 26 – Sep 26 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Belasica 7 Sep 1 – Oct 21 1 in 160
2 Shkupi 9 Nov 10 – Mar 10 1 in 64
3 Makedonija GP 7 Mar 10 – Apr 14 1 in 59
4 Vardar 13 Mar 3 – May 8 1 in 38
5 AP Brera Strumica 6 Nov 22 – Feb 24 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pobeda 15 Nov 10 – Apr 20 1 in 126
2 Vardar 4 Apr 27 – May 12 1 in 25
3 Shkendija 3 Sep 26 – Oct 6 1 in 25
4 Sileks 7 Sep 1 – Oct 21 1 in 21
5 Renova 5 Aug 19 – Sep 23 1 in 19

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Shkendija 1594 79 -3 10 11.5 -1.5
Vardar 1442 64 -4 6 9.1 -3.1
AP Brera Strumica 1348 58 -21 5 6.6 -1.6
Shkupi 1359 48 -3 6 7.7 -1.7
Makedonija GP 1285 47 +14 9 6.5 +2.5
Renova 1337 47 +31 8 6.7 +1.3
Rabotnicki 1317 46 +11 7 6.0 +1.0
Sileks 1315 44 +31 10 6.1 +3.9
Belasica 1242 38 +10 7 5.8 +1.2
Pobeda 1104 23 -65 0 3.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ABS BEL MG POB RAB REN SHK SHK SIL VAR
AP Brera Strumica —
3-0-1
7.85
2-1-1
7.37
4-0-0
7.18
3-0-1
5.44
1-2-1
6.36
1-1-2
2.78
1-0-3
5.54
2-0-2
6.37
0-3-1
4.34
Belasica
1-0-3
3.18
 —
1-1-2
5.09
1-2-1
4.43
0-2-2
3.75
3-0-1
3.71
1-0-3
1.56
2-1-1
3.32
0-1-3
4.25
0-4-0
2.54
Makedonija GP
1-1-2
3.63
2-1-1
5.85
 —
4-0-0
5.59
1-1-2
3.90
1-2-1
4.13
0-2-2
1.53
2-1-1
3.67
1-3-0
4.50
0-0-4
2.94
Pobeda
0-0-4
3.82
1-2-1
6.54
0-0-4
5.36
 —
1-0-3
4.18
1-0-3
4.64
1-0-3
1.74
1-1-2
4.17
1-1-2
4.71
0-1-3
3.06
Rabotnicki
1-0-3
5.50
2-2-0
7.24
2-1-1
7.07
3-0-1
6.79
 —
2-1-1
6.03
0-0-4
2.62
1-1-2
5.47
1-1-2
6.37
1-1-2
4.40
Renova
1-2-1
4.60
1-0-3
7.29
1-2-1
6.85
3-0-1
6.32
1-1-2
4.93
 —
1-1-2
2.30
2-2-0
4.94
1-2-1
5.63
1-1-2
3.80
Shkendija
2-1-1
8.32
3-0-1
9.76
2-2-0
9.79
3-0-1
9.54
4-0-0
8.47
2-1-1
8.84
 —
3-0-1
8.24
3-1-0
8.93
2-2-0
7.38
Shkupi
3-0-1
5.39
1-1-2
7.68
1-1-2
7.35
2-1-1
6.80
2-1-1
5.47
0-2-2
6.00
1-0-3
2.84
 —
2-2-0
6.14
1-1-2
4.46
Sileks
2-0-2
4.57
3-1-0
6.71
0-3-1
6.44
2-1-1
6.23
2-1-1
4.58
1-2-1
5.31
0-1-3
2.24
0-2-2
4.79
 —
1-0-3
3.62
Vardar
1-3-0
6.61
0-4-0
8.58
4-0-0
8.13
3-1-0
8.02
2-1-1
6.58
2-1-1
7.19
0-2-2
3.63
2-1-1
6.48
3-0-1
7.38
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.70 +8.4
Allowed 0.78 -9.1
Differential 0.97 +5.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.22%11.39%7.22%3.89%0.56%0.56%30.83%
111.39%14.44%6.39%2.50%1.11%1.11%36.94%
27.22%6.39%3.89%1.11%0.56%0.56%19.72%
33.89%2.50%1.11%—0.28%—7.78%
40.56%1.11%0.56%0.28%——2.50%
5+0.56%1.11%0.56%———2.22%
Total30.83%36.94%19.72%7.78%2.50%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.23 +0.00
SD 1.24 1.24 1.84
CV 1.01 1.01 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 180

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%8.33%5.56%——36.11%
111.11%13.89%——2.78%—27.78%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
38.33%5.56%————13.89%
42.78%—2.78%———5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%47.22%11.11%5.56%2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 0.97 +0.28
SD 1.25 0.97 1.80
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
12.78%22.22%8.33%—5.56%—38.89%
28.33%5.56%2.78%2.78%——19.44%
3—5.56%2.78%———8.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%50.00%19.44%8.33%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.03 1.36 -0.33
SD 0.94 1.05 1.45
CV 0.92 0.77 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%2.78%5.56%2.78%——19.44%
111.11%19.44%8.33%8.33%—5.56%52.78%
25.56%2.78%2.78%—2.78%—13.89%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—2.78%————2.78%
5+———————
Total30.56%33.33%16.67%11.11%2.78%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 1.39 -0.14
SD 1.00 1.40 1.82
CV 0.80 1.01 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%13.89%8.33%11.11%2.78%2.78%47.22%
15.56%5.56%8.33%8.33%2.78%2.78%33.33%
28.33%2.78%—2.78%2.78%2.78%19.44%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%16.67%22.22%8.33%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 2.11 -1.39
SD 0.78 1.95 2.09
CV 1.08 0.93 —
Max 2 9 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%2.78%——25.00%
111.11%19.44%11.11%2.78%——44.44%
28.33%11.11%———2.78%22.22%
3—2.78%——2.78%—5.56%
4———————
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total19.44%47.22%22.22%5.56%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.36 -0.17
SD 1.06 1.22 1.63
CV 0.89 0.90 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%8.33%8.33%2.78%——27.78%
15.56%16.67%8.33%5.56%——36.11%
25.56%5.56%5.56%2.78%——19.44%
3——8.33%———8.33%
42.78%——2.78%——5.56%
5+—2.78%————2.78%
Total22.22%33.33%30.56%13.89%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.36 +0.11
SD 1.72 0.99 1.94
CV 1.17 0.73 —
Max 9 3 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%2.78%———19.44%
111.11%2.78%2.78%———16.67%
28.33%11.11%5.56%2.78%——27.78%
311.11%—————11.11%
4—8.33%2.78%———11.11%
5+2.78%5.56%5.56%———13.89%
Total44.44%33.33%19.44%2.78%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 0.81 +1.42
SD 1.73 0.86 1.73
CV 0.78 1.06 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.78%16.67%8.33%2.78%——30.56%
113.89%8.33%8.33%——2.78%33.33%
28.33%8.33%13.89%———30.56%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total30.56%33.33%30.56%2.78%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.17 -0.06
SD 0.92 1.08 1.55
CV 0.83 0.93 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
08.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%—2.78%38.89%
122.22%19.44%8.33%———50.00%
22.78%2.78%2.78%———8.33%
32.78%—————2.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total36.11%33.33%22.22%5.56%—2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.75 1.08 -0.33
SD 0.73 1.13 1.55
CV 0.98 1.04 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 36

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.89%11.11%2.78%—2.78%—30.56%
119.44%16.67%————36.11%
211.11%2.78%5.56%———19.44%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+2.78%—————2.78%
Total52.78%36.11%8.33%—2.78%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 0.64 +0.61
SD 1.27 0.87 1.66
CV 1.02 1.36 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 36

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Shkendija 1594 79 79.52 -0.52 50.0% 65 70 74 79 85 90 95
Vardar 1442 64 63.51 +0.49 53.0% 41 50 59 63 69 76 81
Shkupi 1359 48 53.42 -5.42 26.0% 36 41 48 53 58 66 77
AP Brera Strumica 1348 58 53.42 +4.58 75.0% 27 41 49 53 58 66 70
Renova 1337 47 46.63 +0.37 51.0% 25 30 41 47 52 59 67
Rabotnicki 1317 46 49.70 -3.70 37.0% 30 35 45 50 54 62 65
Sileks 1315 44 44.33 -0.33 55.0% 26 31 38 43 50 59 62
Makedonija GP 1285 47 35.44 +11.56 95.0% 20 25 31 36 39 47 55
Belasica 1242 38 31.66 +6.34 86.0% 21 23 27 31 35 42 47
Pobeda 1104 23 37.92 -14.92 2.0% 20 28 33 37 43 49 57

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 23% * Slight Edge: 23% to 31% * Clear Edge: 31% to 38% * Strong Edge: 38% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.89%
No Edge
46.67%25.56%27.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
205 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
066.42600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.46 goals
Neutral
-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.12 * Tight Race: 0.12 to 0.25 * Comfortable: 0.25 to 0.36 * Runaway: 0.36 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.1
One-Team Race
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
96%
Shkendija, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.42/gm
Runaway
00.400.6/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.87 * Some Luck: 5.87 to 8.8 * Lucky: 8.8 to 11.73 * Wild Swing: 11.73 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.89 * Close: 0.89 to 1.33 * Off: 1.33 to 1.77 * Way Off: 1.77 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.79 points
Some Luck
07.3318
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.10
Close
01.112.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
Makedonija GP
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
2.00%
Pobeda
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.17 * Even: 0.17 to 0.19 * Top-Heavy: 0.19 to 0.21 * Lopsided: 0.21 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.9 * Moderate Separation: 1.9 to 2.1 * Strong Separation: 2.1 to 2.3 * Wide Separation: 2.3 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 70.5% * Clear Edge: 70.5% to 78% * Wide Edge: 78% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 93% * Clear Edge: 93% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56.5% * Some Drama: 56.5% to 60.5% * Frequent: 60.5% to 63.5% * Very Frequent: 63.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 15.5% * Occasional: 15.5% to 18% * Frequent: 18% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Balanced
00.170.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 126.73
1.91
Moderate Separation
11.92.12.32.75
Interquartile Edge
59%
Even
50%65%78%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
94%
Clear Edge
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
64%
Very Frequent
0%58%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Occasional
0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.43 * Slight Separation: 0.43 to 0.46 * Notable Separation: 0.46 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.41 * Some Carryover: 0.41 to 0.57 * Strong Carryover: 0.57 to 0.65 * Near-Lock: 0.65 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 18% * Upset-Prone: 18% to 21% * Very Upset-Prone: 21% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 13% * As Expected: 13% to 14.5% * Shaky Favorites: 14.5% to 16.5% * Very Shaky: 16.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Very Even
00.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.02
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.63
Strong Carryover
00.410.571
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Upset-Prone
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
20%
Very Shaky
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.19 * Above Noise: 0.19 to 0.25 * Well Above Noise: 0.25 and up.
Probability calibration
1.00
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.80
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.060
Well Within Noise
00.1250.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Shkendija96.00%4.00%————————
Vardar4.00%60.00%21.00%8.00%4.00%—2.00%1.00%——
AP Brera Strumica—13.00%23.00%27.00%17.00%13.00%2.00%4.00%—1.00%
Shkupi—13.00%21.00%22.00%22.00%12.00%5.00%5.00%——
Renova—1.00%15.00%10.00%21.00%21.00%13.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%
Makedonija GP———2.00%1.00%7.00%19.00%19.00%22.00%30.00%
Rabotnicki—7.00%13.00%20.00%17.00%17.00%17.00%5.00%4.00%—
Sileks—2.00%6.00%11.00%12.00%18.00%21.00%18.00%7.00%5.00%
Belasica————1.00%2.00%5.00%19.00%30.00%43.00%
Pobeda——1.00%—5.00%10.00%16.00%21.00%31.00%16.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Qualified for relegation playoff Direct relegation
Shkendija 100% — —
Shkupi 95.00% 5.00% —
Vardar 99.00% 1.00% —
AP Brera Strumica 95.00% 4.00% 1.00%
Rabotnicki 91.00% 5.00% 4.00%
Renova 81.00% 8.00% 11.00%
Sileks 70.00% 18.00% 12.00%
Pobeda 32.00% 21.00% 47.00%
Makedonija GP 29.00% 19.00% 52.00%
Belasica 8.00% 19.00% 73.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2018-08-11 Renova L 3-461.8 1388 1310 55.06% 25.19% 19.75%+0.70 -11.8 0
2018-08-11 @ Rabotnicki W 4-361.8 1310 1388 19.75% 25.19% 55.06%-0.70 +11.8 3
2018-08-11 Vardar D 2-267.7 1546 1393 62.88% 22.93% 14.20%+1.07 -2.1 1
2018-08-11 @ Shkendija D 2-267.7 1393 1546 14.20% 22.93% 62.88%-1.07 +2.1 1
2018-08-12 Belasica W 1-035.5 1304 1185 59.57% 24.01% 16.42%+0.90 +5.0 3
2018-08-12 @ Pobeda L 0-135.5 1185 1304 16.42% 24.01% 59.57%-0.90 -5.0 0
2018-08-12 Makedonija GP W 2-140.0 1337 1173 63.99% 22.52% 13.49%+1.12 +3.9 3
2018-08-12 @ AP Brera Strumica L 1-240.0 1173 1337 13.49% 22.52% 63.99%-1.12 -3.8 0
2018-08-12 Shkupi D 1-154.9 1337 1370 41.17% 26.99% 31.84%+0.16 -0.5 1
2018-08-12 @ Sileks D 1-154.9 1370 1337 31.84% 26.99% 41.17%-0.16 +0.5 1
2018-08-18 Sileks W 2-145.6 1376 1336 50.61% 26.04% 23.34%+0.52 +6.5 3
2018-08-18 @ Rabotnicki L 1-245.6 1336 1376 23.34% 26.04% 50.61%-0.52 -6.5 1
2018-08-19 AP Brera Strumica L 0-235.6 1180 1341 24.54% 26.25% 49.21%-0.46 -13.5 0
2018-08-19 @ Belasica W 2-035.6 1341 1180 49.21% 26.25% 24.54%+0.46 +13.5 6
2018-08-19 Pobeda D 0-050.1 1370 1309 53.23% 25.57% 21.19%+0.62 -2.0 2
2018-08-19 @ Shkupi D 0-050.1 1309 1370 21.19% 25.57% 53.23%-0.62 +2.0 4
2018-08-19 Shkendija D 0-052.3 1169 1544 9.61% 19.60% 70.79%-1.50 +4.0 1
2018-08-19 @ Makedonija GP D 0-052.3 1544 1169 70.79% 19.60% 9.61%+1.50 -4.0 2
2018-08-19 Vardar L 0-143.9 1322 1396 35.45% 27.10% 37.46%-0.03 -9.5 3
2018-08-19 @ Renova W 1-043.9 1396 1322 37.46% 27.10% 35.45%+0.03 +9.5 4
2018-08-26 Makedonija GP W 1-032.8 1405 1173 69.97% 19.99% 10.04%+1.45 +3.0 7
2018-08-26 @ Vardar L 0-132.8 1173 1405 10.04% 19.99% 69.97%-1.45 -3.0 1
2018-08-26 Rabotnicki L 0-240.5 1311 1382 35.76% 27.10% 37.14%-0.02 -18.1 4
2018-08-26 @ Pobeda W 2-040.5 1382 1311 37.14% 27.10% 35.76%+0.02 +18.1 6
2018-08-26 Renova W 1-039.9 1330 1313 47.89% 26.43% 25.68%+0.41 +7.4 4
2018-08-26 @ Sileks L 0-139.9 1313 1330 25.68% 26.43% 47.89%-0.41 -7.4 3
2018-08-26 Shkupi W 1-042.1 1354 1368 43.72% 26.84% 29.44%+0.25 +8.3 9
2018-08-26 @ AP Brera Strumica L 0-142.1 1368 1354 29.44% 26.84% 43.72%-0.25 -8.3 2
2018-08-27 Belasica W 4-130.7 1540 1166 80.12% 14.49% 5.38%+2.14 +3.3 5
2018-08-27 @ Shkendija L 1-430.7 1166 1540 5.38% 14.49% 80.12%-2.14 -3.3 0
2018-09-01 AP Brera Strumica W 1-040.7 1400 1362 50.44% 26.07% 23.49%+0.51 +6.9 9
2018-09-01 @ Rabotnicki L 0-140.7 1362 1400 23.49% 26.07% 50.44%-0.51 -6.9 9
2018-09-01 Makedonija GP D 1-154.4 1305 1170 61.19% 23.50% 15.31%+0.98 -2.6 4
2018-09-01 @ Renova D 1-154.4 1170 1305 15.31% 23.50% 61.19%-0.98 +2.6 2
2018-09-01 Pobeda D 0-049.5 1337 1293 51.23% 25.94% 22.83%+0.54 -1.7 5
2018-09-01 @ Sileks D 0-049.5 1293 1337 22.83% 25.94% 51.23%-0.54 +1.7 5
2018-09-01 Vardar D 1-154.5 1163 1408 16.95% 24.23% 58.82%-0.87 +2.4 1
2018-09-01 @ Belasica D 1-154.5 1408 1163 58.82% 24.23% 16.95%+0.87 -2.4 8
2018-09-02 Shkendija L 1-249.7 1360 1543 22.26% 25.82% 51.91%-0.57 -6.2 2
2018-09-02 @ Shkupi W 2-149.7 1543 1360 51.91% 25.82% 22.26%+0.57 +6.2 8
2018-09-16 Belasica D 0-048.3 1172 1165 46.53% 26.59% 26.88%+0.36 -1.2 3
2018-09-16 @ Makedonija GP D 0-048.3 1165 1172 26.88% 26.59% 46.53%-0.36 +1.2 2
2018-09-16 Rabotnicki W 6-242.4 1549 1407 61.86% 23.28% 14.86%+1.02 +11.4 11
2018-09-16 @ Shkendija L 2-642.4 1407 1549 14.86% 23.28% 61.86%-1.02 -11.4 9
2018-09-16 Renova W 1-040.5 1295 1302 44.60% 26.77% 28.63%+0.29 +8.1 8
2018-09-16 @ Pobeda L 0-140.5 1302 1295 28.63% 26.77% 44.60%-0.29 -8.1 4
2018-09-16 Shkupi W 2-145.9 1406 1354 52.09% 25.79% 22.12%+0.57 +6.2 11
2018-09-16 @ Vardar L 1-245.9 1354 1406 22.12% 25.79% 52.09%-0.57 -6.2 2
2018-09-16 Sileks W 3-035.3 1356 1336 48.19% 26.39% 25.42%+0.42 +20.2 12
2018-09-16 @ AP Brera Strumica L 0-335.3 1336 1356 25.42% 26.39% 48.19%-0.42 -20.2 5
2018-09-22 Vardar L 0-244.8 1396 1412 43.51% 26.86% 29.63%+0.25 -21.0 9
2018-09-22 @ Rabotnicki W 2-044.8 1412 1396 29.63% 26.86% 43.51%-0.25 +21.0 14
2018-09-23 AP Brera Strumica L 2-449.5 1303 1376 35.52% 27.10% 37.38%-0.03 -14.0 8
2018-09-23 @ Pobeda W 4-249.5 1376 1303 37.38% 27.10% 35.52%+0.03 +14.0 15
2018-09-23 Belasica L 0-245.4 1294 1167 60.43% 23.74% 15.82%+0.95 -27.7 4
2018-09-23 @ Renova W 2-045.4 1167 1294 15.82% 23.74% 60.43%-0.95 +27.7 5
2018-09-23 Makedonija GP W 2-139.7 1348 1171 65.13% 22.08% 12.78%+1.18 +3.6 5
2018-09-23 @ Shkupi L 1-239.7 1171 1348 12.78% 22.08% 65.13%-1.18 -3.6 3
2018-09-23 Shkendija L 1-246.7 1316 1561 16.92% 24.22% 58.86%-0.87 -4.8 5
2018-09-23 @ Sileks W 2-146.7 1561 1316 58.86% 24.22% 16.92%+0.87 +4.8 14
2018-09-26 Pobeda L 0-252.4 1566 1289 73.48% 18.25% 8.27%+1.67 -32.2 14
2018-09-26 @ Shkendija W 2-052.4 1289 1566 8.27% 18.25% 73.48%-1.67 +32.2 11
2018-09-26 Rabotnicki W 3-042.6 1168 1375 20.01% 25.26% 54.73%-0.69 +36.9 6
2018-09-26 @ Makedonija GP L 0-342.6 1375 1168 54.73% 25.26% 20.01%+0.69 -36.9 9
2018-09-26 Renova L 0-246.4 1390 1267 59.94% 23.90% 16.16%+0.92 -27.5 15
2018-09-26 @ AP Brera Strumica W 2-046.4 1267 1390 16.16% 23.90% 59.94%-0.92 +27.5 7
2018-09-26 Shkupi W 1-046.1 1194 1351 24.93% 26.32% 48.76%-0.44 +12.2 8
2018-09-26 @ Belasica L 0-146.1 1351 1194 48.76% 26.32% 24.93%+0.44 -12.2 5
2018-09-26 Sileks W 1-037.6 1433 1311 59.86% 23.92% 16.22%+0.92 +4.9 17
2018-09-26 @ Vardar L 0-137.6 1311 1433 16.22% 23.92% 59.86%-0.92 -4.9 5
2018-09-29 Belasica D 1-154.6 1338 1206 60.81% 23.62% 15.57%+0.96 -2.6 10
2018-09-29 @ Rabotnicki D 1-154.6 1206 1338 15.57% 23.62% 60.81%-0.96 +2.6 9
2018-09-29 Makedonija GP D 1-154.2 1306 1204 57.68% 24.54% 17.77%+0.82 -2.2 6
2018-09-29 @ Sileks D 1-154.2 1204 1306 17.77% 24.54% 57.68%-0.82 +2.2 7
2018-09-29 Shkendija D 0-054.6 1362 1533 23.45% 26.06% 50.49%-0.51 +1.6 16
2018-09-29 @ AP Brera Strumica D 0-054.6 1533 1362 50.49% 26.06% 23.45%+0.51 -1.7 15
2018-09-29 Shkupi W 2-039.2 1294 1339 39.49% 27.06% 33.45%+0.10 +17.2 10
2018-09-29 @ Renova L 0-239.2 1339 1294 33.45% 27.06% 39.49%-0.10 -17.2 5
2018-09-29 Vardar L 0-142.7 1321 1438 29.67% 26.86% 43.47%-0.24 -8.3 11
2018-09-29 @ Pobeda W 1-042.7 1438 1321 43.47% 26.86% 29.67%+0.24 +8.3 20
2018-10-06 AP Brera Strumica W 3-035.2 1446 1364 55.60% 25.06% 19.33%+0.72 +15.9 23
2018-10-06 @ Vardar L 0-335.2 1364 1446 19.33% 25.06% 55.60%-0.72 -15.9 16
2018-10-06 Pobeda W 1-044.2 1207 1313 31.03% 26.95% 42.02%-0.19 +10.8 10
2018-10-06 @ Makedonija GP L 0-144.2 1313 1207 42.02% 26.95% 31.03%+0.19 -10.8 11
2018-10-06 Rabotnicki D 1-154.4 1322 1335 43.85% 26.83% 29.32%+0.26 -0.8 6
2018-10-06 @ Shkupi D 1-154.4 1335 1322 29.32% 26.83% 43.85%-0.26 +0.8 11
2018-10-06 Renova D 2-265.3 1532 1311 68.97% 20.45% 10.57%+1.40 -2.5 16
2018-10-06 @ Shkendija D 2-265.3 1311 1532 10.57% 20.45% 68.97%-1.40 +2.5 11
2018-10-06 Sileks D 1-153.4 1209 1304 32.55% 27.03% 40.43%-0.14 +0.4 10
2018-10-06 @ Belasica D 1-153.4 1304 1209 40.43% 27.03% 32.55%+0.14 -0.4 7
2018-10-21 AP Brera Strumica W 1-045.3 1218 1348 27.99% 26.71% 45.30%-0.31 +11.5 13
2018-10-21 @ Makedonija GP L 0-145.3 1348 1218 45.30% 26.71% 27.99%+0.31 -11.5 16
2018-10-21 Pobeda W 2-149.4 1209 1302 32.82% 27.04% 40.14%-0.13 +9.9 13
2018-10-21 @ Belasica L 1-249.4 1302 1209 40.14% 27.04% 32.82%+0.13 -9.9 11
2018-10-21 Rabotnicki L 0-242.1 1314 1336 42.65% 26.91% 30.43%+0.22 -20.7 11
2018-10-21 @ Renova W 2-042.1 1336 1314 30.43% 26.91% 42.65%-0.22 +20.7 14
2018-10-21 Shkendija L 0-248.5 1462 1529 36.32% 27.10% 36.57%+0.00 -18.3 23
2018-10-21 @ Vardar W 2-048.5 1529 1462 36.57% 27.10% 36.32%+0.00 +18.3 19
2018-10-21 Sileks W 2-036.6 1321 1303 47.97% 26.42% 25.61%+0.41 +14.0 9
2018-10-21 @ Shkupi L 0-236.6 1303 1321 25.61% 26.42% 47.97%-0.41 -14.0 7
2018-10-28 Belasica W 3-030.9 1336 1219 59.34% 24.08% 16.58%+0.89 +13.8 19
2018-10-28 @ AP Brera Strumica L 0-330.9 1219 1336 16.58% 24.08% 59.34%-0.89 -13.8 13
2018-10-28 Makedonija GP W 5-131.3 1548 1229 76.50% 16.61% 6.89%+1.87 +5.7 22
2018-10-28 @ Shkendija L 1-531.3 1229 1548 6.89% 16.61% 76.50%-1.87 -5.7 13
2018-10-28 Rabotnicki W 2-040.3 1289 1357 36.27% 27.10% 36.63%-0.01 +18.4 10
2018-10-28 @ Sileks L 0-240.3 1357 1289 36.63% 27.10% 36.27%+0.01 -18.4 14
2018-10-28 Renova D 0-051.6 1444 1293 62.66% 23.00% 14.33%+1.06 -3.1 24
2018-10-28 @ Vardar D 0-051.6 1293 1444 14.33% 23.00% 62.66%-1.06 +3.1 12
2018-10-28 Shkupi W 2-039.1 1292 1335 39.75% 27.05% 33.20%+0.11 +17.1 14
2018-10-28 @ Pobeda L 0-239.1 1335 1292 33.20% 27.05% 39.75%-0.11 -17.1 9
2018-10-31 AP Brera Strumica W 1-042.1 1318 1350 41.30% 26.99% 31.71%+0.17 +8.8 12
2018-10-31 @ Shkupi L 0-142.1 1350 1318 31.71% 26.99% 41.30%-0.17 -8.8 19
2018-10-31 Pobeda W 3-142.1 1338 1309 49.37% 26.23% 24.40%+0.47 +11.6 17
2018-10-31 @ Rabotnicki L 1-342.1 1309 1338 24.40% 26.23% 49.37%-0.47 -11.6 14
2018-10-31 Shkendija L 0-232.1 1206 1553 10.83% 20.67% 68.50%-1.37 -6.1 13
2018-10-31 @ Belasica W 2-032.1 1553 1206 68.50% 20.67% 10.83%+1.37 +6.1 25
2018-10-31 Sileks D 1-154.0 1296 1308 44.15% 26.81% 29.05%+0.27 -0.8 13
2018-10-31 @ Renova D 1-154.0 1308 1296 29.05% 26.81% 44.15%-0.27 +0.8 11
2018-10-31 Vardar L 1-340.3 1223 1441 19.15% 25.01% 55.84%-0.73 -9.4 13
2018-10-31 @ Makedonija GP W 3-140.3 1441 1223 55.84% 25.01% 19.15%+0.73 +9.4 27
2018-11-04 Belasica D 1-156.6 1450 1200 71.43% 19.29% 9.28%+1.54 -3.6 28
2018-11-04 @ Vardar D 1-156.6 1200 1450 9.28% 19.29% 71.43%-1.54 +3.6 14
2018-11-04 Rabotnicki W 1-041.4 1341 1350 44.49% 26.78% 28.73%+0.28 +8.1 22
2018-11-04 @ AP Brera Strumica L 0-141.4 1350 1341 28.73% 26.78% 44.49%-0.28 -8.1 17
2018-11-04 Renova L 1-247.6 1214 1296 34.30% 27.08% 38.62%-0.07 -8.8 13
2018-11-04 @ Makedonija GP W 2-147.6 1296 1214 38.62% 27.08% 34.30%+0.07 +8.8 16
2018-11-04 Shkupi W 3-032.9 1559 1327 69.98% 19.99% 10.04%+1.46 +8.1 28
2018-11-04 @ Shkendija L 0-332.9 1327 1559 10.04% 19.99% 69.98%-1.46 -8.1 12
2018-11-04 Sileks W 2-037.6 1298 1308 44.20% 26.80% 29.00%+0.27 +15.4 17
2018-11-04 @ Pobeda L 0-237.6 1308 1298 29.00% 26.80% 44.20%-0.27 -15.4 11
2018-11-10 AP Brera Strumica W 1-042.9 1293 1350 37.85% 27.09% 35.05%+0.05 +9.5 14
2018-11-10 @ Sileks L 0-142.9 1350 1293 35.05% 27.09% 37.85%-0.05 -9.5 22
2018-11-10 Makedonija GP L 1-444.6 1203 1205 45.36% 26.70% 27.94%+0.31 -26.6 14
2018-11-10 @ Belasica W 4-144.6 1205 1203 27.94% 26.70% 45.36%-0.31 +26.6 16
2018-11-10 Pobeda W 2-146.5 1304 1313 44.49% 26.78% 28.73%+0.28 +7.7 19
2018-11-10 @ Renova L 1-246.5 1313 1304 28.73% 26.78% 44.49%-0.28 -7.7 17
2018-11-10 Shkendija L 1-248.4 1342 1567 18.47% 24.78% 56.75%-0.77 -5.2 17
2018-11-10 @ Rabotnicki W 2-148.4 1567 1342 56.75% 24.78% 18.47%+0.77 +5.2 31
2018-11-10 Vardar W 1-047.4 1319 1446 28.33% 26.74% 44.93%-0.30 +11.4 15
2018-11-10 @ Shkupi L 0-147.4 1446 1319 44.93% 26.74% 28.33%+0.30 -11.4 28
2018-11-22 Pobeda W 2-145.0 1340 1305 50.05% 26.13% 23.82%+0.49 +6.6 25
2018-11-22 @ AP Brera Strumica L 1-245.0 1305 1340 23.82% 26.13% 50.05%-0.49 -6.6 17
2018-11-22 Rabotnicki L 0-150.6 1435 1337 57.35% 24.63% 18.02%+0.80 -14.0 28
2018-11-22 @ Vardar W 1-050.6 1337 1435 18.02% 24.63% 57.35%-0.80 +14.0 20
2018-11-22 Renova W 3-147.8 1177 1312 27.38% 26.64% 45.97%-0.34 +19.0 17
2018-11-22 @ Belasica L 1-347.8 1312 1177 45.97% 26.64% 27.38%+0.34 -19.0 19
2018-11-22 Shkupi D 2-259.4 1232 1330 32.02% 27.00% 40.98%-0.16 +0.4 17
2018-11-22 @ Makedonija GP D 2-259.4 1330 1232 40.98% 27.00% 32.02%+0.16 -0.4 16
2018-11-22 Sileks W 5-031.7 1573 1302 72.98% 18.50% 8.51%+1.64 +10.8 34
2018-11-22 @ Shkendija L 0-531.7 1302 1573 8.51% 18.50% 72.98%-1.64 -10.8 14
2018-11-25 AP Brera Strumica D 1-154.2 1293 1347 38.28% 27.09% 34.64%+0.06 -0.2 20
2018-11-25 @ Renova D 1-154.2 1347 1293 34.64% 27.09% 38.28%-0.06 +0.2 26
2018-11-25 Belasica W 1-035.2 1330 1196 61.09% 23.53% 15.38%+0.98 +4.7 19
2018-11-25 @ Shkupi L 0-135.2 1196 1330 15.38% 23.53% 61.09%-0.98 -4.7 17
2018-11-25 Makedonija GP W 5-134.1 1351 1232 59.49% 24.03% 16.47%+0.90 +14.9 23
2018-11-25 @ Rabotnicki L 1-534.1 1232 1351 16.47% 24.03% 59.49%-0.90 -14.9 17
2018-11-25 Shkendija L 0-236.8 1299 1583 14.24% 22.95% 62.81%-1.06 -8.1 17
2018-11-25 @ Pobeda W 2-036.8 1583 1299 62.81% 22.95% 14.24%+1.06 +8.1 37
2018-11-25 Vardar L 0-141.5 1292 1421 28.12% 26.72% 45.16%-0.31 -8.0 14
2018-11-25 @ Sileks W 1-041.5 1421 1292 45.16% 26.72% 28.12%+0.31 +8.0 31
2018-11-28 AP Brera Strumica L 0-157.8 1592 1347 70.98% 19.51% 9.51%+1.52 -16.7 37
2018-11-28 @ Shkendija W 1-057.8 1347 1592 9.51% 19.51% 70.98%-1.52 +16.7 29
2018-11-28 Pobeda W 3-031.7 1429 1291 61.48% 23.41% 15.11%+1.00 +12.5 34
2018-11-28 @ Vardar L 0-331.7 1291 1429 15.11% 23.41% 61.48%-1.00 -12.5 17
2018-11-28 Rabotnicki L 1-244.2 1191 1366 23.09% 25.99% 50.91%-0.53 -6.4 17
2018-11-28 @ Belasica W 2-144.2 1366 1191 50.91% 25.99% 23.09%+0.53 +6.4 26
2018-11-28 Renova D 1-154.4 1335 1293 50.89% 26.00% 23.11%+0.53 -1.5 20
2018-11-28 @ Shkupi D 1-154.4 1293 1335 23.11% 26.00% 50.89%-0.53 +1.5 21
2018-11-28 Sileks D 1-153.4 1217 1284 36.46% 27.10% 36.44%+0.00 +0.0 18
2018-11-28 @ Makedonija GP D 1-153.4 1284 1217 36.44% 27.10% 36.46%+0.00 +0.0 15
2018-12-02 Belasica W 1-036.1 1284 1184 57.45% 24.60% 17.95%+0.81 +5.4 18
2018-12-02 @ Sileks L 0-136.1 1184 1284 17.95% 24.60% 57.45%-0.81 -5.4 17
2018-12-02 Makedonija GP L 0-243.9 1278 1217 53.17% 25.59% 21.25%+0.62 -24.8 17
2018-12-02 @ Pobeda W 2-043.9 1217 1278 21.25% 25.59% 53.17%-0.62 +24.8 21
2018-12-02 Shkendija L 0-334.7 1294 1575 14.50% 23.09% 62.41%-1.04 -12.0 21
2018-12-02 @ Renova W 3-034.7 1575 1294 62.41% 23.09% 14.50%+1.04 +12.0 40
2018-12-02 Shkupi L 0-244.8 1372 1333 50.56% 26.05% 23.39%+0.51 -23.8 26
2018-12-02 @ Rabotnicki W 2-044.8 1333 1372 23.39% 26.05% 50.56%-0.51 +23.8 23
2018-12-02 Vardar D 0-051.7 1364 1441 34.82% 27.09% 38.09%-0.06 +0.2 30
2018-12-02 @ AP Brera Strumica D 0-051.7 1441 1364 38.09% 27.09% 34.82%+0.06 -0.2 35
2019-02-17 Belasica D 1-153.7 1253 1179 54.70% 25.27% 20.03%+0.68 -1.9 18
2019-02-17 @ Pobeda D 1-153.7 1179 1253 20.03% 25.27% 54.70%-0.68 +1.9 18
2019-02-17 Makedonija GP W 3-031.0 1364 1242 59.81% 23.93% 16.25%+0.92 +13.5 33
2019-02-17 @ AP Brera Strumica L 0-331.0 1242 1364 16.25% 23.93% 59.81%-0.92 -13.5 21
2019-02-17 Renova D 1-154.6 1348 1282 53.76% 25.47% 20.77%+0.64 -1.8 27
2019-02-17 @ Rabotnicki D 1-154.6 1282 1348 20.77% 25.47% 53.76%-0.64 +1.8 22
2019-02-17 Shkupi D 2-259.9 1289 1357 36.26% 27.10% 36.64%-0.01 +0.0 19
2019-02-17 @ Sileks D 2-259.9 1357 1289 36.64% 27.10% 36.26%+0.01 -0.0 24
2019-02-17 Vardar W 1-045.4 1587 1441 62.21% 23.16% 14.63%+1.03 +4.4 43
2019-02-17 @ Shkendija L 0-145.4 1441 1587 14.63% 23.16% 62.21%-1.03 -4.4 35
2019-02-24 AP Brera Strumica L 0-137.6 1181 1377 21.01% 25.53% 53.46%-0.63 -6.2 18
2019-02-24 @ Belasica W 1-037.6 1377 1181 53.46% 25.53% 21.01%+0.63 +6.2 36
2019-02-24 Makedonija GP D 1-160.7 1591 1229 79.45% 14.89% 5.65%+2.09 -4.2 44
2019-02-24 @ Shkendija D 1-160.7 1229 1591 5.65% 14.89% 79.45%-2.09 +4.2 22
2019-02-24 Pobeda W 3-031.5 1357 1251 58.12% 24.42% 17.46%+0.84 +14.5 27
2019-02-24 @ Shkupi L 0-331.5 1251 1357 17.46% 24.42% 58.12%-0.84 -14.4 18
2019-02-24 Sileks D 1-154.6 1346 1289 52.76% 25.67% 21.57%+0.60 -1.7 28
2019-02-24 @ Rabotnicki D 1-154.6 1289 1346 21.57% 25.67% 52.76%-0.60 +1.7 20
2019-02-24 Vardar W 4-042.1 1284 1437 25.43% 26.39% 48.18%-0.42 +43.3 25
2019-02-24 @ Renova L 0-442.1 1437 1284 48.18% 26.39% 25.43%+0.42 -43.3 35
2019-03-03 Belasica W 3-026.1 1587 1175 82.42% 13.07% 4.51%+2.33 +3.2 47
2019-03-03 @ Shkendija L 0-326.1 1175 1587 4.51% 13.07% 82.42%-2.33 -3.2 18
2019-03-03 Makedonija GP W 3-137.6 1394 1233 63.65% 22.65% 13.70%+1.11 +6.8 38
2019-03-03 @ Vardar L 1-337.6 1233 1394 13.70% 22.65% 63.65%-1.11 -6.8 22
2019-03-03 Rabotnicki L 0-141.1 1237 1345 30.80% 26.94% 42.27%-0.20 -8.6 18
2019-03-03 @ Pobeda W 1-041.1 1345 1237 42.27% 26.94% 30.80%+0.20 +8.6 31
2019-03-03 Renova D 0-049.1 1291 1327 40.66% 27.02% 32.32%+0.14 -0.5 21
2019-03-03 @ Sileks D 0-049.1 1327 1291 32.32% 27.02% 40.66%-0.14 +0.5 26
2019-03-03 Shkupi L 0-244.7 1383 1371 47.22% 26.51% 26.27%+0.38 -22.4 36
2019-03-03 @ AP Brera Strumica W 2-044.7 1371 1383 26.27% 26.51% 47.22%-0.38 +22.4 30
2019-03-10 AP Brera Strumica L 1-252.2 1353 1361 44.60% 26.77% 28.63%+0.29 -10.7 31
2019-03-10 @ Rabotnicki W 2-152.2 1361 1353 28.63% 26.77% 44.60%-0.29 +10.7 39
2019-03-10 Makedonija GP D 0-049.4 1328 1226 57.75% 24.53% 17.73%+0.82 -2.5 27
2019-03-10 @ Renova D 0-049.4 1226 1328 17.73% 24.53% 57.75%-0.82 +2.5 23
2019-03-10 Pobeda W 1-037.5 1290 1228 53.30% 25.56% 21.14%+0.63 +6.3 24
2019-03-10 @ Sileks L 0-137.5 1228 1290 21.14% 25.56% 53.30%-0.63 -6.3 18
2019-03-10 Shkendija W 1-056.1 1394 1590 20.97% 25.52% 53.52%-0.63 +13.2 33
2019-03-10 @ Shkupi L 0-156.1 1590 1394 53.52% 25.52% 20.97%+0.63 -13.2 47
2019-03-10 Vardar D 0-049.5 1172 1400 18.21% 24.70% 57.10%-0.79 +2.5 19
2019-03-10 @ Belasica D 0-049.5 1400 1172 57.10% 24.70% 18.21%+0.79 -2.4 39
2019-03-16 Belasica W 2-143.2 1229 1174 52.43% 25.73% 21.84%+0.59 +6.1 26
2019-03-16 @ Makedonija GP L 1-243.2 1174 1229 21.84% 25.73% 52.43%-0.59 -6.1 19
2019-03-16 Rabotnicki W 1-039.0 1577 1343 70.15% 19.91% 9.94%+1.47 +2.9 50
2019-03-16 @ Shkendija L 0-139.0 1343 1577 9.94% 19.91% 70.15%-1.47 -2.9 31
2019-03-16 Renova L 2-351.7 1222 1325 31.37% 26.97% 41.66%-0.18 -7.8 18
2019-03-16 @ Pobeda W 3-251.7 1325 1222 41.66% 26.97% 31.37%+0.18 +7.8 30
2019-03-16 Shkupi W 1-043.4 1398 1407 44.43% 26.78% 28.78%+0.28 +8.1 42
2019-03-16 @ Vardar L 0-143.4 1407 1398 28.78% 26.78% 44.43%-0.28 -8.1 33
2019-03-16 Sileks W 2-034.9 1372 1297 54.81% 25.24% 19.94%+0.69 +11.3 42
2019-03-16 @ AP Brera Strumica L 0-234.9 1297 1372 19.94% 25.24% 54.81%-0.69 -11.3 24
2019-03-28 Belasica W 3-244.8 1333 1168 64.08% 22.49% 13.43%+1.13 +3.6 33
2019-03-28 @ Renova L 2-344.8 1168 1333 13.43% 22.49% 64.08%-1.13 -3.6 19
2019-03-28 Makedonija GP L 0-150.1 1399 1235 63.97% 22.53% 13.50%+1.12 -15.4 33
2019-03-28 @ Shkupi W 1-050.1 1235 1399 13.50% 22.53% 63.97%-1.12 +15.4 29
2019-03-28 Shkendija L 0-334.2 1285 1580 13.63% 22.61% 63.76%-1.11 -11.3 24
2019-03-28 @ Sileks W 3-034.2 1580 1285 63.76% 22.61% 13.63%+1.11 +11.3 53
2019-03-28 Vardar L 0-241.5 1340 1406 36.46% 27.10% 36.43%+0.00 -18.4 31
2019-03-28 @ Rabotnicki W 2-041.5 1406 1340 36.43% 27.10% 36.46%+0.00 +18.4 45
2019-03-31 Pobeda W 5-234.8 1591 1214 80.34% 14.36% 5.30%+2.16 +2.8 56
2019-03-31 @ Shkendija L 2-534.8 1214 1591 5.30% 14.36% 80.34%-2.16 -2.8 18
2019-03-31 Rabotnicki D 1-153.7 1250 1321 35.76% 27.10% 37.14%-0.02 +0.1 30
2019-03-31 @ Makedonija GP D 1-153.7 1321 1250 37.14% 27.10% 35.76%+0.02 -0.1 32
2019-03-31 Renova W 2-145.5 1383 1337 51.44% 25.91% 22.66%+0.55 +6.3 45
2019-03-31 @ AP Brera Strumica L 1-245.5 1337 1383 22.66% 25.91% 51.44%-0.55 -6.3 33
2019-03-31 Shkupi W 2-044.8 1164 1383 19.00% 24.96% 56.04%-0.74 +25.9 22
2019-03-31 @ Belasica L 0-244.8 1383 1164 56.04% 24.96% 19.00%+0.74 -25.9 33
2019-03-31 Sileks W 1-036.1 1424 1274 62.66% 23.01% 14.34%+1.06 +4.3 48
2019-03-31 @ Vardar L 0-136.1 1274 1424 14.34% 23.01% 62.66%-1.06 -4.3 24
2019-04-03 Belasica D 1-154.5 1321 1190 60.76% 23.64% 15.60%+0.96 -2.6 33
2019-04-03 @ Rabotnicki D 1-154.5 1190 1321 15.60% 23.64% 60.76%-0.96 +2.6 23
2019-04-03 Makedonija GP D 1-153.7 1270 1250 48.15% 26.40% 25.45%+0.42 -1.2 25
2019-04-03 @ Sileks D 1-153.7 1250 1270 25.45% 26.40% 48.15%-0.42 +1.2 31
2019-04-03 Shkendija L 0-146.0 1389 1594 20.23% 25.32% 54.45%-0.67 -6.0 45
2019-04-03 @ AP Brera Strumica W 1-046.0 1594 1389 54.45% 25.32% 20.23%+0.67 +6.1 59
2019-04-03 Shkupi W 1-042.1 1330 1357 42.01% 26.95% 31.04%+0.19 +8.6 36
2019-04-03 @ Renova L 0-142.1 1357 1330 31.04% 26.95% 42.01%-0.19 -8.6 33
2019-04-03 Vardar D 0-049.9 1211 1429 19.15% 25.01% 55.84%-0.73 +2.3 19
2019-04-03 @ Pobeda D 0-049.9 1429 1211 55.84% 25.01% 19.15%+0.73 -2.3 49
2019-04-07 AP Brera Strumica D 1-157.1 1426 1383 51.07% 25.97% 22.96%+0.53 -1.5 50
2019-04-07 @ Vardar D 1-157.1 1383 1426 22.96% 25.97% 51.07%-0.53 +1.5 46
2019-04-07 Pobeda W 3-033.2 1251 1214 50.39% 26.08% 23.53%+0.51 +18.9 34
2019-04-07 @ Makedonija GP L 0-333.2 1214 1251 23.53% 26.08% 50.39%-0.51 -18.9 19
2019-04-07 Rabotnicki L 1-253.0 1349 1319 49.48% 26.22% 24.30%+0.47 -11.7 33
2019-04-07 @ Shkupi W 2-153.0 1319 1349 24.30% 26.22% 49.48%-0.47 +11.7 36
2019-04-07 Renova W 2-144.8 1600 1339 72.27% 18.87% 8.86%+1.59 +2.4 62
2019-04-07 @ Shkendija L 1-244.8 1339 1600 8.86% 18.87% 72.27%-1.59 -2.4 36
2019-04-07 Sileks L 0-142.0 1193 1268 35.13% 27.09% 37.77%-0.04 -9.5 23
2019-04-07 @ Belasica W 1-042.0 1268 1193 37.77% 27.09% 35.13%+0.04 +9.5 28
2019-04-14 AP Brera Strumica D 1-154.4 1270 1385 29.93% 26.88% 43.19%-0.23 +0.7 35
2019-04-14 @ Makedonija GP D 1-154.4 1385 1270 43.19% 26.88% 29.93%+0.23 -0.7 47
2019-04-14 Pobeda D 1-153.2 1183 1195 44.10% 26.81% 29.09%+0.27 -0.8 24
2019-04-14 @ Belasica D 1-153.2 1195 1183 29.09% 26.81% 44.10%-0.27 +0.8 20
2019-04-14 Rabotnicki L 1-252.2 1337 1330 46.47% 26.59% 26.94%+0.35 -11.1 36
2019-04-14 @ Renova W 2-152.2 1330 1337 26.94% 26.59% 46.47%-0.35 +11.1 39
2019-04-14 Shkendija D 0-059.3 1425 1603 22.78% 25.93% 51.28%-0.54 +1.7 51
2019-04-14 @ Vardar D 0-059.3 1603 1425 51.28% 25.93% 22.78%+0.54 -1.7 63
2019-04-14 Sileks W 2-143.9 1337 1278 52.98% 25.62% 21.40%+0.61 +6.0 36
2019-04-14 @ Shkupi L 1-243.9 1278 1337 21.40% 25.62% 52.98%-0.61 -6.0 28
2019-04-20 Belasica L 0-247.1 1384 1183 67.36% 21.17% 11.47%+1.30 -30.2 47
2019-04-20 @ AP Brera Strumica W 2-047.1 1183 1384 11.47% 21.17% 67.36%-1.30 +30.2 27
2019-04-20 Makedonija GP W 4-241.4 1601 1271 77.29% 16.16% 6.55%+1.93 +2.6 66
2019-04-20 @ Shkendija L 2-441.4 1271 1601 6.55% 16.16% 77.29%-1.93 -2.6 35
2019-04-20 Rabotnicki W 1-043.2 1272 1341 36.02% 27.10% 36.88%-0.01 +9.8 31
2019-04-20 @ Sileks L 0-143.2 1341 1272 36.88% 27.10% 36.02%+0.01 -9.8 39
2019-04-20 Renova W 2-035.2 1427 1326 57.64% 24.55% 17.80%+0.81 +10.1 54
2019-04-20 @ Vardar L 0-235.2 1326 1427 17.80% 24.55% 57.64%-0.81 -10.1 36
2019-04-20 Shkupi L 0-334.3 1196 1343 26.00% 26.47% 47.53%-0.39 -20.5 20
2019-04-20 @ Pobeda W 3-034.3 1343 1196 47.53% 26.47% 26.00%+0.39 +20.5 39
2019-04-24 AP Brera Strumica W 1-041.0 1364 1354 46.91% 26.55% 26.55%+0.37 +7.6 42
2019-04-24 @ Shkupi L 0-141.0 1354 1364 26.55% 26.55% 46.91%-0.37 -7.6 47
2019-04-24 Pobeda L 1-255.0 1332 1175 63.25% 22.80% 13.96%+1.09 -14.4 39
2019-04-24 @ Rabotnicki W 2-155.0 1175 1332 13.96% 22.80% 63.25%-1.09 +14.4 23
2019-04-24 Shkendija W 2-160.1 1213 1603 8.99% 18.99% 72.02%-1.58 +15.9 30
2019-04-24 @ Belasica L 1-260.1 1603 1213 72.02% 18.99% 8.99%+1.58 -15.9 66
2019-04-24 Sileks W 1-038.9 1316 1282 49.93% 26.15% 23.92%+0.49 +7.0 39
2019-04-24 @ Renova L 0-138.9 1282 1316 23.92% 26.15% 49.93%-0.49 -7.0 31
2019-04-24 Vardar L 0-236.8 1268 1437 23.74% 26.12% 50.15%-0.50 -13.1 35
2019-04-24 @ Makedonija GP W 2-036.8 1437 1268 50.15% 26.12% 23.74%+0.50 +13.1 57
2019-04-27 Belasica D 1-156.6 1450 1229 69.04% 20.42% 10.54%+1.40 -3.4 58
2019-04-27 @ Vardar D 1-156.6 1229 1450 10.54% 20.42% 69.04%-1.40 +3.4 31
2019-04-27 Rabotnicki W 3-142.2 1346 1317 49.34% 26.24% 24.42%+0.46 +11.6 50
2019-04-27 @ AP Brera Strumica L 1-342.2 1317 1346 24.42% 26.24% 49.34%-0.46 -11.6 39
2019-04-27 Renova W 3-145.5 1255 1322 36.32% 27.10% 36.58%+0.00 +15.9 38
2019-04-27 @ Makedonija GP L 1-345.5 1322 1255 36.58% 27.10% 36.32%+0.00 -15.9 39
2019-04-27 Shkupi W 5-139.0 1588 1371 68.63% 20.61% 10.76%+1.38 +9.5 69
2019-04-27 @ Shkendija L 1-539.0 1371 1588 10.76% 20.61% 68.63%-1.38 -9.5 42
2019-04-27 Sileks L 0-141.6 1189 1275 33.79% 27.07% 39.14%-0.09 -9.2 23
2019-04-27 @ Pobeda W 1-041.6 1275 1189 39.14% 27.07% 33.79%+0.09 +9.2 34
2019-04-30 AP Brera Strumica L 1-340.8 1180 1358 22.80% 25.94% 51.27%-0.54 -11.0 23
2019-04-30 @ Pobeda W 3-140.8 1358 1180 51.27% 25.94% 22.80%+0.54 +11.0 53
2019-05-04 AP Brera Strumica W 3-039.2 1284 1369 33.85% 27.07% 39.08%-0.09 +28.1 37
2019-05-04 @ Sileks L 0-339.2 1369 1284 39.08% 27.07% 33.85%+0.09 -28.1 53
2019-05-04 Makedonija GP W 3-143.9 1232 1271 40.34% 27.03% 32.64%+0.13 +14.6 34
2019-05-04 @ Belasica L 1-343.9 1271 1232 32.64% 27.03% 40.34%-0.13 -14.6 38
2019-05-04 Pobeda W 9-131.9 1307 1169 61.39% 23.44% 15.18%+0.99 +26.0 42
2019-05-04 @ Renova L 1-931.9 1169 1307 15.18% 23.44% 61.39%-0.99 -26.0 23
2019-05-04 Shkendija L 0-140.4 1306 1597 13.82% 22.72% 63.46%-1.10 -4.2 39
2019-05-04 @ Rabotnicki W 1-040.4 1597 1306 63.46% 22.72% 13.82%+1.10 +4.2 72
2019-05-04 Vardar D 2-262.5 1362 1446 33.88% 27.07% 39.05%-0.09 +0.2 43
2019-05-04 @ Shkupi D 2-262.5 1446 1362 39.05% 27.07% 33.88%+0.09 -0.2 59
2019-05-08 Pobeda W 4-027.9 1341 1143 67.01% 21.32% 11.68%+1.29 +12.5 56
2019-05-08 @ AP Brera Strumica L 0-427.9 1143 1341 11.68% 21.32% 67.01%-1.29 -12.5 23
2019-05-08 Rabotnicki D 1-156.7 1446 1301 62.13% 23.19% 14.68%+1.03 -2.7 60
2019-05-08 @ Vardar D 1-156.7 1301 1446 14.68% 23.19% 62.13%-1.03 +2.7 40
2019-05-08 Renova W 3-254.3 1247 1333 33.71% 27.07% 39.22%-0.09 +9.2 37
2019-05-08 @ Belasica L 2-354.3 1333 1247 39.22% 27.07% 33.71%+0.09 -9.2 42
2019-05-08 Shkupi W 1-044.7 1256 1362 31.09% 26.95% 41.95%-0.19 +10.8 41
2019-05-08 @ Makedonija GP L 0-144.7 1362 1256 41.95% 26.95% 31.09%+0.19 -10.8 43
2019-05-08 Sileks D 0-057.6 1601 1312 74.41% 17.75% 7.84%+1.73 -4.3 73
2019-05-08 @ Shkendija D 0-057.6 1312 1601 7.84% 17.75% 74.41%-1.73 +4.3 38
2019-05-12 AP Brera Strumica D 1-154.6 1323 1353 41.61% 26.97% 31.42%+0.18 -0.5 43
2019-05-12 @ Renova D 1-154.6 1353 1323 31.42% 26.97% 41.61%-0.18 +0.5 57
2019-05-12 Belasica D 2-260.4 1351 1256 57.03% 24.71% 18.26%+0.79 -1.6 44
2019-05-12 @ Shkupi D 2-260.4 1256 1351 18.26% 24.71% 57.03%-0.79 +1.6 38
2019-05-12 Makedonija GP W 2-035.5 1304 1267 50.30% 26.09% 23.61%+0.50 +13.1 43
2019-05-12 @ Rabotnicki L 0-235.5 1267 1304 23.61% 26.09% 50.30%-0.50 -13.0 41
2019-05-12 Shkendija L 1-431.8 1131 1597 6.45% 16.02% 77.53%-1.95 -4.1 23
2019-05-12 @ Pobeda W 4-131.8 1597 1131 77.53% 16.02% 6.45%+1.95 +4.1 76
2019-05-12 Vardar W 1-047.3 1316 1443 28.38% 26.75% 44.88%-0.30 +11.4 41
2019-05-12 @ Sileks L 0-147.3 1443 1316 44.88% 26.75% 28.38%+0.30 -11.4 60
2019-05-19 AP Brera Strumica W 4-139.8 1601 1354 71.18% 19.41% 9.41%+1.53 +6.4 79
2019-05-19 @ Shkendija L 1-439.8 1354 1601 9.41% 19.41% 71.18%-1.53 -6.3 57
2019-05-19 Pobeda W 6-026.6 1432 1127 75.58% 17.12% 7.30%+1.81 +10.7 63
2019-05-19 @ Vardar L 0-626.6 1127 1432 7.30% 17.12% 75.58%-1.81 -10.7 23
2019-05-19 Rabotnicki L 0-143.1 1258 1317 37.43% 27.10% 35.48%+0.03 -9.9 38
2019-05-19 @ Belasica W 1-043.1 1317 1258 35.48% 27.10% 37.43%-0.03 +9.9 46
2019-05-19 Renova D 2-260.5 1350 1323 49.04% 26.28% 24.68%+0.45 -1.0 45
2019-05-19 @ Shkupi D 2-260.5 1323 1350 24.68% 26.28% 49.04%-0.45 +1.0 44
2019-05-19 Sileks W 2-040.0 1254 1328 35.44% 27.10% 37.47%-0.03 +18.7 44
2019-05-19 @ Makedonija GP L 0-240.0 1328 1254 37.47% 27.10% 35.44%+0.03 -18.7 41
2019-05-26 Belasica W 2-143.5 1309 1248 53.24% 25.57% 21.19%+0.62 +5.9 44
2019-05-26 @ Sileks L 1-243.5 1248 1309 21.19% 25.57% 53.24%-0.62 -5.9 38
2019-05-26 Makedonija GP L 1-341.1 1116 1273 24.95% 26.32% 48.73%-0.44 -11.8 23
2019-05-26 @ Pobeda W 3-141.1 1273 1116 48.73% 26.32% 24.95%+0.44 +11.8 47
2019-05-26 Shkendija W 3-266.7 1324 1607 14.31% 22.99% 62.70%-1.06 +13.5 47
2019-05-26 @ Renova L 2-366.7 1607 1324 62.70% 22.99% 14.31%+1.06 -13.5 79
2019-05-26 Shkupi L 1-251.2 1327 1349 42.76% 26.91% 30.34%+0.22 -10.3 46
2019-05-26 @ Rabotnicki W 2-151.2 1349 1327 30.34% 26.91% 42.76%-0.22 +10.4 48
2019-05-26 Vardar D 1-156.4 1347 1443 32.43% 27.02% 40.55%-0.14 +0.4 58
2019-05-26 @ AP Brera Strumica D 1-156.4 1443 1347 40.55% 27.02% 32.43%+0.14 -0.4 64

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2018-09-26 8.27% Pobeda 1289 2 @ Shkendija 1566 0
2 2019-04-24 8.99% @ Belasica 1213 2 Shkendija 1603 1
3 2018-11-28 9.51% AP Brera Strumica 1347 1 @ Shkendija 1592 0
4 2019-04-20 11.47% Belasica 1183 2 @ AP Brera Strumica 1384 0
5 2019-03-28 13.50% Makedonija GP 1235 1 @ Shkupi 1399 0
6 2019-04-24 13.96% Pobeda 1175 2 @ Rabotnicki 1332 1
7 2019-05-26 14.31% @ Renova 1324 3 Shkendija 1607 2
8 2018-09-23 15.82% Belasica 1167 2 @ Renova 1294 0
9 2018-09-26 16.16% Renova 1267 2 @ AP Brera Strumica 1390 0
10 2018-11-22 18.02% Rabotnicki 1337 1 @ Vardar 1435 0
11 2019-03-31 19.00% @ Belasica 1164 2 Shkupi 1383 0
12 2018-08-11 19.75% Renova 1310 4 @ Rabotnicki 1388 3
13 2018-09-26 20.01% @ Makedonija GP 1168 3 Rabotnicki 1375 0
14 2019-03-10 20.97% @ Shkupi 1394 1 Shkendija 1590 0
15 2018-12-02 21.25% Makedonija GP 1217 2 @ Pobeda 1278 0
16 2018-12-02 23.39% Shkupi 1333 2 @ Rabotnicki 1372 0
17 2019-04-07 24.30% Rabotnicki 1319 2 @ Shkupi 1349 1
18 2018-09-26 24.93% @ Belasica 1194 1 Shkupi 1351 0
19 2019-02-24 25.43% @ Renova 1284 4 Vardar 1437 0
20 2019-03-03 26.27% Shkupi 1371 2 @ AP Brera Strumica 1383 0
21 2019-04-14 26.94% Rabotnicki 1330 2 @ Renova 1337 1
22 2018-11-22 27.38% @ Belasica 1177 3 Renova 1312 1
23 2018-11-10 27.94% Makedonija GP 1205 4 @ Belasica 1203 1
24 2018-10-21 27.99% @ Makedonija GP 1218 1 AP Brera Strumica 1348 0
25 2018-11-10 28.33% @ Shkupi 1319 1 Vardar 1446 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-02-24 43.28 @ Renova 4 1284 25.43% Vardar 0 1437 48.18% 26.39%
2 2018-09-26 36.90 @ Makedonija GP 3 1168 20.01% Rabotnicki 0 1375 54.73% 25.26%
3 2018-09-26 32.23 Pobeda 2 1289 8.27% @ Shkendija 0 1566 73.48% 18.25%
4 2019-04-20 30.23 Belasica 2 1183 11.47% @ AP Brera Strumica 0 1384 67.36% 21.17%
5 2019-05-04 28.07 @ Sileks 3 1284 33.85% AP Brera Strumica 0 1369 39.08% 27.07%
6 2018-09-23 27.66 Belasica 2 1167 15.82% @ Renova 0 1294 60.43% 23.74%
7 2018-09-26 27.46 Renova 2 1267 16.16% @ AP Brera Strumica 0 1390 59.94% 23.90%
8 2018-11-10 26.59 Makedonija GP 4 1205 27.94% @ Belasica 1 1203 45.36% 26.70%
9 2019-05-04 26.02 @ Renova 9 1307 61.39% Pobeda 1 1169 15.18% 23.44%
10 2019-03-31 25.92 @ Belasica 2 1164 19.00% Shkupi 0 1383 56.04% 24.96%
11 2018-12-02 24.78 Makedonija GP 2 1217 21.25% @ Pobeda 0 1278 53.17% 25.59%
12 2018-12-02 23.75 Shkupi 2 1333 23.39% @ Rabotnicki 0 1372 50.56% 26.05%
13 2019-03-03 22.44 Shkupi 2 1371 26.27% @ AP Brera Strumica 0 1383 47.22% 26.51%
14 2018-09-22 21.00 Vardar 2 1412 29.63% @ Rabotnicki 0 1396 43.51% 26.86%
15 2018-10-21 20.67 Rabotnicki 2 1336 30.43% @ Renova 0 1314 42.65% 26.91%
16 2019-04-20 20.54 Shkupi 3 1343 47.53% @ Pobeda 0 1196 26.00% 26.47%
17 2018-09-16 20.16 @ AP Brera Strumica 3 1356 48.19% Sileks 0 1336 25.42% 26.39%
18 2018-11-22 19.01 @ Belasica 3 1177 27.38% Renova 1 1312 45.97% 26.64%
19 2019-04-07 18.91 @ Makedonija GP 3 1251 50.39% Pobeda 0 1214 23.53% 26.08%
20 2019-05-19 18.73 @ Makedonija GP 2 1254 35.44% Sileks 0 1328 37.47% 27.10%
21 2018-10-28 18.41 @ Sileks 2 1289 36.27% Rabotnicki 0 1357 36.63% 27.10%
22 2019-03-28 18.36 Vardar 2 1406 36.43% @ Rabotnicki 0 1340 36.46% 27.10%
23 2018-10-21 18.31 Shkendija 2 1529 36.57% @ Vardar 0 1462 36.32% 27.10%
24 2018-08-26 18.09 Rabotnicki 2 1382 37.14% @ Pobeda 0 1311 35.76% 27.10%
25 2018-09-29 17.22 @ Renova 2 1294 39.49% Shkupi 0 1339 33.45% 27.06%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2018-08-11 67.7 @ Shkendija 2 1546 62.88% Vardar 2 1393 14.20% 22.93%
2 2019-05-26 66.7 @ Renova 3 1324 14.31% Shkendija 2 1607 62.70% 22.99%
3 2018-10-06 65.3 @ Shkendija 2 1532 68.97% Renova 2 1311 10.57% 20.45%
4 2019-05-04 62.5 @ Shkupi 2 1362 33.88% Vardar 2 1446 39.05% 27.07%
5 2018-08-11 61.8 Renova 4 1310 19.75% @ Rabotnicki 3 1388 55.06% 25.19%
6 2019-02-24 60.7 @ Shkendija 1 1591 79.45% Makedonija GP 1 1229 5.65% 14.89%
7 2019-05-19 60.5 @ Shkupi 2 1350 49.04% Renova 2 1323 24.68% 26.28%
8 2019-05-12 60.4 @ Shkupi 2 1351 57.03% Belasica 2 1256 18.26% 24.71%
9 2019-04-24 60.1 @ Belasica 2 1213 8.99% Shkendija 1 1603 72.02% 18.99%
10 2019-02-17 59.9 @ Sileks 2 1289 36.26% Shkupi 2 1357 36.64% 27.10%
11 2018-11-22 59.4 @ Makedonija GP 2 1232 32.02% Shkupi 2 1330 40.98% 27.00%
12 2019-04-14 59.3 @ Vardar 0 1425 22.78% Shkendija 0 1603 51.28% 25.93%
13 2018-11-28 57.8 AP Brera Strumica 1 1347 9.51% @ Shkendija 0 1592 70.98% 19.51%
14 2019-05-08 57.6 @ Shkendija 0 1601 74.41% Sileks 0 1312 7.84% 17.75%
15 2019-04-07 57.1 @ Vardar 1 1426 51.07% AP Brera Strumica 1 1383 22.96% 25.97%
16 2019-05-08 56.7 @ Vardar 1 1446 62.13% Rabotnicki 1 1301 14.68% 23.19%
17 2018-11-04 56.6 @ Vardar 1 1450 71.43% Belasica 1 1200 9.28% 19.29%
18 2019-04-27 56.6 @ Vardar 1 1450 69.04% Belasica 1 1229 10.54% 20.42%
19 2019-05-26 56.4 @ AP Brera Strumica 1 1347 32.43% Vardar 1 1443 40.55% 27.02%
20 2019-03-10 56.1 @ Shkupi 1 1394 20.97% Shkendija 0 1590 53.52% 25.52%
21 2019-04-24 55.0 Pobeda 2 1175 13.96% @ Rabotnicki 1 1332 63.25% 22.80%
22 2018-08-12 54.9 @ Sileks 1 1337 41.17% Shkupi 1 1370 31.84% 26.99%
23 2018-09-29 54.6 @ Rabotnicki 1 1338 60.81% Belasica 1 1206 15.57% 23.62%
24 2018-09-29 54.6 @ AP Brera Strumica 0 1362 23.45% Shkendija 0 1533 50.49% 26.06%
25 2019-02-17 54.6 @ Rabotnicki 1 1348 53.76% Renova 1 1282 20.77% 25.47%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2019-03-03 26.1 @ Shkendija 3 1587 82.42% Belasica 0 1175 4.51% 13.07%
2 2019-05-19 26.6 @ Vardar 6 1432 75.58% Pobeda 0 1127 7.30% 17.12%
3 2019-05-08 27.9 @ AP Brera Strumica 4 1341 67.01% Pobeda 0 1143 11.68% 21.32%
4 2018-08-27 30.7 @ Shkendija 4 1540 80.12% Belasica 1 1166 5.38% 14.49%
5 2018-10-28 30.9 @ AP Brera Strumica 3 1336 59.34% Belasica 0 1219 16.58% 24.08%
6 2019-02-17 31.0 @ AP Brera Strumica 3 1364 59.81% Makedonija GP 0 1242 16.25% 23.93%
7 2018-10-28 31.3 @ Shkendija 5 1548 76.50% Makedonija GP 1 1229 6.89% 16.61%
8 2019-02-24 31.5 @ Shkupi 3 1357 58.12% Pobeda 0 1251 17.46% 24.42%
9 2018-11-22 31.7 @ Shkendija 5 1573 72.98% Sileks 0 1302 8.51% 18.50%
10 2018-11-28 31.7 @ Vardar 3 1429 61.48% Pobeda 0 1291 15.11% 23.41%
11 2019-05-12 31.8 Shkendija 4 1597 77.53% @ Pobeda 1 1131 6.45% 16.02%
12 2019-05-04 31.9 @ Renova 9 1307 61.39% Pobeda 1 1169 15.18% 23.44%
13 2018-10-31 32.1 Shkendija 2 1553 68.50% @ Belasica 0 1206 10.83% 20.67%
14 2018-08-26 32.8 @ Vardar 1 1405 69.97% Makedonija GP 0 1173 10.04% 19.99%
15 2018-11-04 32.9 @ Shkendija 3 1559 69.98% Shkupi 0 1327 10.04% 19.99%
16 2019-04-07 33.2 @ Makedonija GP 3 1251 50.39% Pobeda 0 1214 23.53% 26.08%
17 2018-11-25 34.1 @ Rabotnicki 5 1351 59.49% Makedonija GP 1 1232 16.47% 24.03%
18 2019-03-28 34.2 Shkendija 3 1580 63.76% @ Sileks 0 1285 13.63% 22.61%
19 2019-04-20 34.3 Shkupi 3 1343 47.53% @ Pobeda 0 1196 26.00% 26.47%
20 2018-12-02 34.7 Shkendija 3 1575 62.41% @ Renova 0 1294 14.50% 23.09%
21 2019-03-31 34.8 @ Shkendija 5 1591 80.34% Pobeda 2 1214 5.30% 14.36%
22 2019-03-16 34.9 @ AP Brera Strumica 2 1372 54.81% Sileks 0 1297 19.94% 25.24%
23 2018-10-06 35.2 @ Vardar 3 1446 55.60% AP Brera Strumica 0 1364 19.33% 25.06%
24 2018-11-25 35.2 @ Shkupi 1 1330 61.09% Belasica 0 1196 15.38% 23.53%
25 2019-04-20 35.2 @ Vardar 2 1427 57.64% Renova 0 1326 17.80% 24.55%