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1912-13 Irish League Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Glentoran

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Shelbourne

4.40 points above expected

18 points · 13.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Tritonville

5.80 points below expected

5 points · 10.80 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Glentoran 18 12 2 4 26 37 16 +21 23.80 +2.20
2 Lisburn Distillery 18 11 2 5 24 34 17 +17 24.77 -0.77
3 Linfield 18 9 5 4 23 29 23 +6 19.06 +3.94
4 Glenavon 18 9 2 7 20 25 17 +8 18.82 +1.18
5 Cliftonville 18 8 3 7 19 23 23 0 15.81 +3.19
6 Bohemian 18 8 2 8 18 31 28 +3 17.72 +0.28
7 Belfast Celtic 18 7 4 7 18 24 26 -2 22.00 -4.00
8 Shelbourne 18 7 4 7 18 20 23 -3 13.60 +4.40
9 Derry Celtic 18 3 3 12 9 17 39 -22 13.62 -4.62
10 Tritonville 18 2 1 15 5 27 55 -28 10.80 -5.80

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Shelbourne 18 13.60 +4.40
2 Linfield 23 19.06 +3.94
3 Cliftonville 19 15.81 +3.19
4 Glentoran 26 23.80 +2.20
5 Glenavon 20 18.82 +1.18

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Tritonville 5 10.80 -5.80
2 Derry Celtic 9 13.62 -4.62
3 Belfast Celtic 18 22.00 -4.00
4 Lisburn Distillery 24 24.77 -0.77
5 Bohemian 18 17.72 +0.28

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 4 Sep 28 – Oct 19 1 in 84
2 Glentoran 7 Nov 23 – Dec 26 1 in 48
3 Lisburn Distillery 7 Oct 26 – Dec 14 1 in 21
4 Glenavon 5 Nov 2 – Nov 30 1 in 6
5 Shelbourne 2 Dec 26 – Dec 28 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Tritonville 8 Sep 7 – Oct 26 1 in 205
2 Glentoran 3 Nov 2 – Nov 16 1 in 78
3 Linfield 3 Oct 19 – Nov 2 1 in 44
4 Belfast Celtic 3 Dec 21 – Dec 26 1 in 19
5 Glenavon 3 Dec 21 – Dec 26 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Shelbourne 6 Dec 7 – Dec 28 1 in 51
2 Cliftonville 4 Sep 28 – Oct 19 1 in 15
3 Linfield 6 Sep 7 – Oct 16 1 in 11
4 Glentoran 7 Sep 14 – Oct 26 1 in 9
5 Tritonville 2 Dec 25 – Dec 26 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Belfast Celtic 8 Nov 16 – Dec 26 1 in 145
2 Linfield 7 Oct 9 – Nov 9 1 in 81
3 Lisburn Distillery 4 Dec 18 – Dec 26 1 in 67
4 Tritonville 8 Sep 7 – Oct 26 1 in 17
5 Cliftonville 4 Nov 9 – Nov 30 1 in 16

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Glentoran 1724 26 +109 10 6.3 +3.7
Lisburn Distillery 1666 24 -75 4 7.3 -3.3
Linfield 1667 23 +106 8 3.9 +4.1
Glenavon 1529 20 -117 1 4.2 -3.2
Cliftonville 1538 19 +11 7 6.2 +0.8
Shelbourne 1467 18 +95 8 5.1 +2.9
Bohemian 1476 18 -52 3 5.2 -2.2
Belfast Celtic 1375 18 -145 2 5.1 -3.1
Derry Celtic 1281 9 +5 3 3.1 -0.1
Tritonville 1278 5 +32 3 3.1 -0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC BOH CLI DC GLE GLE LIN LD SHE TRI
Belfast Celtic —
1-0-1
3.05
2-0-0
3.76
1-0-1
4.31
0-1-1
3.46
0-0-2
2.63
0-1-1
3.90
1-1-0
1.76
1-1-0
3.79
1-0-1
4.50
Bohemian
1-0-1
2.62
 —
0-1-1
2.85
2-0-0
3.77
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
1.96
0-1-1
2.72
0-0-2
2.46
1-0-1
3.33
2-0-0
3.02
Cliftonville
0-0-2
1.91
1-1-0
2.82
 —
2-0-0
3.13
1-0-1
2.25
1-0-1
1.92
0-1-1
2.39
1-0-1
1.77
0-1-1
3.29
2-0-0
3.57
Derry Celtic
1-0-1
1.37
0-0-2
1.91
0-0-2
2.55
 —
0-1-1
2.55
0-1-1
1.39
1-0-1
1.88
0-0-2
1.09
1-0-1
2.55
0-1-1
3.55
Glenavon
1-1-0
2.21
1-0-1
2.66
1-0-1
3.42
1-1-0
3.13
 —
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
2.63
1-0-1
1.91
1-0-1
3.82
2-0-0
4.02
Glentoran
2-0-0
3.04
1-0-1
3.72
1-0-1
3.76
1-1-0
4.28
2-0-0
3.72
 —
1-1-0
3.49
0-0-2
3.08
2-0-0
4.36
2-0-0
4.97
Linfield
1-1-0
1.77
1-1-0
2.95
1-1-0
3.28
1-0-1
3.79
1-0-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.19
 —
1-0-1
1.93
1-1-0
3.53
2-0-0
4.25
Lisburn Distillery
0-1-1
3.91
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.90
2-0-0
4.58
1-0-1
3.76
2-0-0
2.59
1-0-1
3.74
 —
0-1-1
4.61
2-0-0
4.85
Shelbourne
0-1-1
1.89
1-0-1
2.34
1-1-0
2.38
1-0-1
3.12
1-0-1
1.85
0-0-2
1.31
0-1-1
2.14
1-1-0
1.07
 —
2-0-0
3.25
Tritonville
1-0-1
1.18
0-0-2
2.65
0-0-2
2.11
1-1-0
2.13
0-0-2
1.65
0-0-2
0.71
0-0-2
1.42
0-0-2
0.83
0-0-2
2.42
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.35 +6.2
Allowed 0.89 -5.1
Differential 0.96 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%9.44%6.11%5.56%1.11%1.11%30.00%
19.44%7.78%6.67%1.67%2.78%1.11%29.44%
26.11%6.67%1.11%2.22%2.22%0.56%18.89%
35.56%1.67%2.22%—0.56%1.11%11.11%
41.11%2.78%2.22%0.56%——6.67%
5+1.11%1.11%0.56%1.11%——3.89%
Total30.00%29.44%18.89%11.11%6.67%3.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 1.48 +0.00
SD 1.46 1.46 2.14
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%—11.11%—38.89%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
211.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total33.33%27.78%11.11%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.44 -0.11
SD 1.41 1.42 2.03
CV 1.06 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
111.11%11.11%11.11%—5.56%5.56%44.44%
2———————
311.11%—————11.11%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.56 +0.17
SD 1.64 1.46 2.60
CV 0.95 0.94 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
111.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.36 1.07 1.81
CV 1.07 0.84 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%—22.22%—5.56%55.56%
1——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total11.11%22.22%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 2.17 -1.22
SD 1.30 1.38 1.90
CV 1.38 0.64 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
111.11%—————11.11%
211.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
311.11%5.56%————16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total44.44%33.33%5.56%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.94 +0.44
SD 1.33 1.11 1.82
CV 0.96 1.18 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
15.56%———5.56%—11.11%
222.22%11.11%————33.33%
3——11.11%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total50.00%22.22%22.22%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 0.89 +1.17
SD 2.07 1.13 2.48
CV 1.01 1.27 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
111.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
2—22.22%——11.11%—33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%44.44%—5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.28 +0.33
SD 1.20 1.45 1.68
CV 0.74 1.13 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
127.78%11.11%16.67%———55.56%
2———————
311.11%—————11.11%
4—11.11%————11.11%
5+—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
Total38.89%33.33%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 0.94 +0.94
SD 1.64 0.94 1.76
CV 0.87 0.99 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%16.67%5.56%——33.33%
111.11%16.67%—11.11%——38.89%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.28 -0.17
SD 1.13 1.07 1.72
CV 1.02 0.84 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
1——22.22%—5.56%5.56%33.33%
25.56%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%22.22%
3————5.56%11.11%16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%16.67%33.33%—16.67%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 3.06 -1.56
SD 1.20 2.04 2.31
CV 0.80 0.67 —
Max 4 8 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Glentoran 1724 26 23.80 +2.20 79.0% 15 19 21 24 26 29 33
Linfield 1667 23 19.06 +3.94 93.0% 12 14 17 19 21 24 25
Lisburn Distillery 1666 24 24.77 -0.77 50.0% 18 20 22 24 27 29 31
Cliftonville 1538 19 15.81 +3.19 87.0% 6 10 14 16 18 21 25
Glenavon 1529 20 18.82 +1.18 69.0% 12 13 17 19 21 24 28
Bohemian 1476 18 17.72 +0.28 57.0% 9 12 15 18 21 23 25
Shelbourne 1467 18 13.60 +4.40 94.0% 4 8 11 14 16 19 25
Belfast Celtic 1375 18 22.00 -4.00 14.0% 12 17 20 22 24 27 31
Derry Celtic 1281 9 13.62 -4.62 5.0% 8 9 12 14 16 18 21
Tritonville 1278 5 10.80 -5.80 6.0% 2 5 9 11 12 16 18

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+31.11%
Strong Edge
57.78%15.56%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
218 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0111.80600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.86 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.51+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.0
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
33%
Glentoran, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.58 * Some Luck: 2.58 to 3.87 * Lucky: 3.87 to 5.16 * Wild Swing: 5.16 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.03 * Close: 1.03 to 1.54 * Off: 1.54 to 2.06 * Way Off: 2.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.51 points
Some Luck
03.238
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.20
Close
01.293
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
94.00%
Shelbourne
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Derry Celtic
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Balanced
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 157.24
1.67
Coin-Flip Parity
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
80%
Clear Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
93%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Some Drama
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
24%
Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.502
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.44
Weak Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Very Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.3 * Well Above Noise: 0.3 and up.
Probability calibration
0.20
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.68
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.109
Well Within Noise
00.1500.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Glentoran33.00%31.00%19.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%1.00%———
Lisburn Distillery45.00%26.00%15.00%10.00%3.00%1.00%————
Linfield3.00%5.00%17.00%17.00%24.00%21.00%8.00%3.00%2.00%—
Glenavon5.00%6.00%14.00%15.00%25.00%15.00%11.00%3.00%6.00%—
Cliftonville—1.00%1.00%11.00%12.00%19.00%15.00%23.00%14.00%4.00%
Bohemian—7.00%14.00%14.00%10.00%16.00%16.00%11.00%9.00%3.00%
Belfast Celtic13.00%22.00%19.00%22.00%10.00%9.00%2.00%—3.00%—
Shelbourne1.00%2.00%—1.00%4.00%10.00%18.00%25.00%20.00%19.00%
Derry Celtic——1.00%1.00%5.00%6.00%21.00%23.00%26.00%17.00%
Tritonville———1.00%2.00%—8.00%12.00%20.00%57.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Bohemian 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Derry Celtic 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Shelbourne 100%
Tritonville 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1912-09-07 Belfast Celtic L 1-254.1 1389 1586 37.60% 16.47% 45.93%-0.39 -24.1 0
1912-09-07 @ Cliftonville W 2-154.1 1586 1389 45.93% 16.47% 37.60%+0.39 +24.1 2
1912-09-07 Glenavon D 0-056.7 1446 1394 67.19% 16.41% 16.41%+0.75 -9.0 1
1912-09-07 @ Derry Celtic D 0-056.7 1394 1446 16.41% 16.41% 67.19%-0.75 +9.0 1
1912-09-07 Lisburn Distillery L 0-168.5 1708 1615 70.31% 16.36% 13.33%+0.94 -45.7 0
1912-09-07 @ Glentoran W 1-068.5 1615 1708 13.33% 16.36% 70.31%-0.94 +45.7 2
1912-09-07 Shelbourne W 1-038.6 1557 1366 75.80% 16.19% 8.00%+1.39 +6.3 2
1912-09-07 @ Linfield L 0-138.6 1366 1557 8.00% 16.19% 75.80%-1.39 -6.3 0
1912-09-07 Bohemian L 1-554.3 1508 1431 69.14% 16.38% 14.48%+0.86 -133.7 0
1912-09-07 @ Tritonville W 5-154.3 1431 1508 14.48% 16.38% 69.14%-0.86 +133.7 2
1912-09-14 Tritonville W 2-034.4 1403 1374 65.24% 16.43% 18.32%+0.64 +25.7 3
1912-09-14 @ Glenavon L 0-234.4 1374 1403 18.32% 16.43% 65.24%-0.64 -25.7 0
1912-09-14 Bohemian W 2-154.6 1663 1565 70.63% 16.35% 13.02%+0.96 +9.4 2
1912-09-14 @ Glentoran L 1-254.6 1565 1663 13.02% 16.35% 70.63%-0.96 -9.4 2
1912-09-14 Derry Celtic W 3-038.5 1661 1437 77.15% 16.12% 6.73%+1.54 +14.5 4
1912-09-14 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-338.5 1437 1661 6.73% 16.12% 77.15%-1.54 -14.5 1
1912-09-14 Cliftonville W 3-031.8 1360 1365 62.02% 16.46% 21.52%+0.49 +43.1 2
1912-09-14 @ Shelbourne L 0-331.8 1365 1360 21.52% 16.46% 62.02%-0.49 -43.1 0
1912-09-21 Shelbourne W 2-038.3 1610 1403 76.49% 16.16% 7.35%+1.46 +10.9 4
1912-09-21 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-238.3 1403 1610 7.35% 16.16% 76.49%-1.46 -10.9 2
1912-09-21 Glenavon W 1-041.8 1555 1429 72.45% 16.31% 11.25%+1.09 +8.7 4
1912-09-21 @ Bohemian L 0-141.8 1429 1555 11.25% 16.31% 72.45%-1.09 -8.7 3
1912-09-21 Glentoran D 0-065.5 1422 1672 30.62% 16.43% 52.94%-0.63 +3.7 2
1912-09-21 @ Derry Celtic D 0-065.5 1672 1422 52.94% 16.43% 30.62%+0.63 -3.7 3
1912-09-21 Cliftonville W 3-030.8 1564 1322 77.81% 16.08% 6.11%+1.62 +13.2 4
1912-09-21 @ Linfield L 0-330.8 1322 1564 6.11% 16.08% 77.81%-1.62 -13.2 0
1912-09-21 Tritonville W 4-139.6 1675 1348 80.29% 15.86% 3.84%+2.01 +7.1 6
1912-09-21 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-439.6 1348 1675 3.84% 15.86% 80.29%-2.01 -7.1 0
1912-09-28 Glenavon W 3-251.0 1308 1420 49.54% 16.50% 33.96%+0.00 +21.0 2
1912-09-28 @ Cliftonville L 2-351.0 1420 1308 33.96% 16.50% 49.54%+0.00 -21.0 3
1912-09-28 Bohemian L 0-152.5 1426 1564 45.95% 16.50% 37.55%-0.12 -30.3 2
1912-09-28 @ Derry Celtic W 1-052.5 1564 1426 37.55% 16.50% 45.95%+0.12 +30.3 6
1912-09-28 Belfast Celtic L 0-264.2 1682 1621 67.95% 16.40% 15.65%+0.79 -83.0 6
1912-09-28 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-064.2 1621 1682 15.65% 16.40% 67.95%-0.79 +83.0 6
1912-09-28 Glentoran L 0-246.1 1392 1668 27.38% 16.41% 56.21%-0.75 -36.7 2
1912-09-28 @ Shelbourne W 2-046.1 1668 1392 56.21% 16.41% 27.38%+0.75 +36.7 5
1912-09-28 Linfield L 1-250.5 1341 1577 32.47% 16.45% 51.08%-0.57 -21.3 0
1912-09-28 @ Tritonville W 2-150.5 1577 1341 51.08% 16.45% 32.47%+0.57 +21.3 6
1912-10-02 Belfast Celtic W 2-051.1 1705 1704 62.63% 16.46% 20.91%+0.52 +28.9 7
1912-10-02 @ Glentoran L 0-251.1 1704 1705 20.91% 16.46% 62.63%-0.52 -28.9 6
1912-10-05 Cliftonville L 1-256.5 1396 1329 68.34% 16.39% 15.27%+0.82 -41.8 2
1912-10-05 @ Derry Celtic W 2-156.5 1329 1396 15.27% 16.39% 68.34%-0.82 +41.8 4
1912-10-05 Lisburn Distillery W 2-157.6 1399 1599 37.18% 16.47% 46.34%-0.40 +28.8 5
1912-10-05 @ Glenavon L 1-257.6 1599 1399 46.34% 16.47% 37.18%+0.40 -28.8 6
1912-10-05 Tritonville W 1-036.0 1355 1320 65.78% 16.43% 17.80%+0.67 +13.2 4
1912-10-05 @ Shelbourne L 0-136.0 1320 1355 17.80% 16.43% 65.78%-0.67 -13.2 0
1912-10-09 Bohemian D 1-172.2 1598 1594 62.90% 16.45% 20.65%+0.53 -6.6 7
1912-10-09 @ Linfield D 1-172.2 1594 1598 20.65% 16.45% 62.90%-0.53 +6.6 7
1912-10-12 Lisburn Distillery L 1-463.0 1601 1570 65.38% 16.43% 18.19%+0.65 -97.7 7
1912-10-12 @ Bohemian W 4-163.0 1570 1601 18.19% 16.43% 65.38%-0.65 +97.7 8
1912-10-12 Shelbourne W 3-139.6 1354 1368 61.08% 16.47% 22.46%+0.45 +26.7 4
1912-10-12 @ Derry Celtic L 1-339.6 1368 1354 22.46% 16.47% 61.08%-0.45 -26.7 4
1912-10-12 Belfast Celtic W 1-058.5 1428 1675 30.95% 16.44% 52.62%-0.62 +34.2 7
1912-10-12 @ Glenavon L 0-158.5 1675 1428 52.62% 16.44% 30.95%+0.62 -34.2 6
1912-10-12 Glentoran D 0-070.5 1591 1734 45.33% 16.50% 38.17%-0.14 -1.2 8
1912-10-12 @ Linfield D 0-070.5 1734 1591 38.17% 16.50% 45.33%+0.14 +1.2 8
1912-10-12 Cliftonville L 2-549.0 1307 1371 55.52% 16.49% 27.99%+0.22 -72.0 0
1912-10-12 @ Tritonville W 5-249.0 1371 1307 27.99% 16.49% 55.52%-0.22 +72.0 6
1912-10-16 Linfield D 0-069.1 1641 1590 67.10% 16.41% 16.49%+0.74 -9.0 7
1912-10-16 @ Belfast Celtic D 0-069.1 1590 1641 16.49% 16.41% 67.10%-0.74 +9.0 9
1912-10-19 Derry Celtic W 3-035.2 1632 1381 78.14% 16.06% 5.80%+1.66 +12.6 9
1912-10-19 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-335.2 1381 1632 5.80% 16.06% 78.14%-1.66 -12.6 4
1912-10-19 Bohemian W 3-039.4 1443 1503 56.03% 16.49% 27.48%+0.24 +53.5 8
1912-10-19 @ Cliftonville L 0-339.4 1503 1443 27.48% 16.49% 56.03%-0.24 -53.5 7
1912-10-19 Tritonville W 8-032.7 1735 1235 83.24% 15.29% 1.47%+2.80 +8.1 10
1912-10-19 @ Glentoran L 0-832.7 1235 1735 1.47% 15.29% 83.24%-2.80 -8.0 0
1912-10-19 Glenavon L 1-461.9 1599 1462 73.06% 16.29% 10.65%+1.14 -109.9 9
1912-10-19 @ Linfield W 4-161.9 1462 1599 10.65% 16.29% 73.06%-1.14 +109.9 9
1912-10-19 Lisburn Distillery W 2-162.6 1342 1668 21.94% 16.34% 61.71%-0.98 +37.6 6
1912-10-19 @ Shelbourne L 1-262.6 1668 1342 61.71% 16.34% 21.94%+0.98 -37.6 8
1912-10-26 Tritonville W 5-342.6 1645 1227 82.09% 15.58% 2.32%+2.43 +2.6 11
1912-10-26 @ Belfast Celtic L 3-542.6 1227 1645 2.32% 15.58% 82.09%-2.43 -2.6 0
1912-10-26 Shelbourne W 3-031.9 1450 1379 68.66% 16.39% 14.95%+0.84 +31.0 9
1912-10-26 @ Bohemian L 0-331.9 1379 1450 14.95% 16.39% 68.66%-0.84 -31.0 6
1912-10-26 Linfield W 4-250.3 1368 1489 48.25% 16.50% 35.26%-0.04 +35.4 6
1912-10-26 @ Derry Celtic L 2-450.3 1489 1368 35.26% 16.50% 48.25%+0.04 -35.4 9
1912-10-26 Glentoran L 2-369.1 1572 1743 41.26% 16.49% 42.25%-0.27 -24.7 9
1912-10-26 @ Glenavon W 3-269.1 1743 1572 42.25% 16.49% 41.26%+0.27 +24.7 12
1912-10-26 Cliftonville W 1-046.7 1631 1497 72.88% 16.30% 10.83%+1.13 +8.4 10
1912-10-26 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-146.7 1497 1631 10.83% 16.30% 72.88%-1.13 -8.4 8
1912-11-02 Bohemian W 1-046.2 1647 1481 74.62% 16.24% 9.14%+1.27 +7.1 13
1912-11-02 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-146.2 1481 1647 9.14% 16.24% 74.62%-1.27 -7.1 9
1912-11-02 Shelbourne W 3-139.2 1547 1348 76.14% 16.18% 7.69%+1.42 +9.8 11
1912-11-02 @ Glenavon L 1-339.2 1348 1547 7.69% 16.18% 76.14%-1.42 -9.8 6
1912-11-02 Cliftonville L 0-266.7 1768 1488 79.03% 15.99% 4.98%+1.79 -97.8 12
1912-11-02 @ Glentoran W 2-066.7 1488 1768 4.98% 15.99% 79.03%-1.79 +97.8 10
1912-11-02 Lisburn Distillery L 0-154.2 1454 1639 39.29% 16.48% 44.22%-0.34 -26.5 9
1912-11-02 @ Linfield W 1-054.2 1639 1454 44.22% 16.48% 39.29%+0.34 +26.5 12
1912-11-02 Derry Celtic W 4-142.0 1224 1403 40.13% 16.48% 43.38%-0.31 +66.6 2
1912-11-02 @ Tritonville L 1-442.0 1403 1224 43.38% 16.48% 40.13%+0.31 -66.6 6
1912-11-09 Cliftonville W 3-152.4 1654 1586 68.48% 16.39% 15.13%+0.82 +18.7 15
1912-11-09 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-352.4 1586 1654 15.13% 16.39% 68.48%-0.82 -18.7 10
1912-11-09 Tritonville W 4-240.0 1474 1291 75.41% 16.21% 8.38%+1.35 +9.6 11
1912-11-09 @ Bohemian L 2-440.0 1291 1474 8.38% 16.21% 75.41%-1.35 -9.6 2
1912-11-09 Derry Celtic W 3-031.3 1557 1337 77.01% 16.13% 6.86%+1.52 +14.8 13
1912-11-09 @ Glenavon L 0-331.3 1337 1557 6.86% 16.13% 77.01%-1.52 -14.8 6
1912-11-09 Glentoran W 1-054.0 1665 1670 62.08% 16.46% 21.46%+0.49 +15.7 14
1912-11-09 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-154.0 1670 1665 21.46% 16.46% 62.08%-0.49 -15.7 12
1912-11-09 Linfield D 1-159.0 1338 1427 52.48% 16.50% 31.02%+0.10 -3.2 7
1912-11-09 @ Shelbourne D 1-159.0 1427 1338 31.02% 16.50% 52.48%-0.10 +3.2 10
1912-11-16 Glentoran W 4-155.2 1483 1654 41.25% 16.49% 42.26%-0.27 +65.1 13
1912-11-16 @ Bohemian L 1-455.2 1654 1483 42.26% 16.49% 41.25%+0.27 -65.1 12
1912-11-16 Shelbourne D 0-058.7 1567 1335 77.46% 16.10% 6.43%+1.58 -13.2 11
1912-11-16 @ Cliftonville D 0-058.7 1335 1567 6.43% 16.10% 77.46%-1.58 +13.2 8
1912-11-16 Lisburn Distillery L 0-144.8 1322 1681 18.84% 16.29% 64.87%-1.13 -13.9 6
1912-11-16 @ Derry Celtic W 1-044.8 1681 1322 64.87% 16.29% 18.84%+1.13 +13.9 16
1912-11-16 Belfast Celtic W 4-051.2 1431 1673 31.59% 16.44% 51.97%-0.60 +120.9 12
1912-11-16 @ Linfield L 0-451.2 1673 1431 51.97% 16.44% 31.59%+0.60 -121.0 15
1912-11-16 Glenavon L 0-141.8 1281 1572 25.77% 16.39% 57.84%-0.82 -18.4 2
1912-11-16 @ Tritonville W 1-041.8 1572 1281 57.84% 16.39% 25.77%+0.82 +18.4 15
1912-11-23 Linfield D 1-169.8 1554 1552 62.80% 16.45% 20.75%+0.52 -6.6 12
1912-11-23 @ Cliftonville D 1-169.8 1552 1554 20.75% 16.45% 62.80%-0.52 +6.6 13
1912-11-23 Bohemian W 3-043.0 1590 1548 66.39% 16.42% 17.19%+0.71 +35.2 17
1912-11-23 @ Glenavon L 0-343.0 1548 1590 17.19% 16.42% 66.39%-0.71 -35.2 13
1912-11-23 Derry Celtic W 5-029.6 1589 1308 79.08% 15.99% 4.93%+1.80 +17.3 14
1912-11-23 @ Glentoran L 0-529.6 1308 1589 4.93% 15.99% 79.08%-1.80 -17.3 6
1912-11-23 Lisburn Distillery L 3-549.0 1263 1695 13.16% 16.15% 70.69%-1.47 -13.8 2
1912-11-23 @ Tritonville W 5-349.0 1695 1263 70.69% 16.15% 13.16%+1.47 +13.8 18
1912-11-30 Derry Celtic W 3-028.8 1513 1291 77.09% 16.13% 6.79%+1.53 +14.6 15
1912-11-30 @ Bohemian L 0-328.8 1291 1513 6.79% 16.13% 77.09%-1.53 -14.6 6
1912-11-30 Cliftonville W 2-045.7 1626 1548 69.21% 16.38% 14.42%+0.87 +20.6 19
1912-11-30 @ Glenavon L 0-245.7 1548 1626 14.42% 16.38% 69.21%-0.87 -20.6 12
1912-11-30 Shelbourne W 2-035.6 1606 1348 78.37% 16.04% 5.59%+1.69 +8.4 16
1912-11-30 @ Glentoran L 0-235.6 1348 1606 5.59% 16.04% 78.37%-1.69 -8.4 8
1912-11-30 Tritonville W 4-346.3 1558 1249 79.85% 15.91% 4.23%+1.93 +2.9 15
1912-11-30 @ Linfield L 3-446.3 1249 1558 4.23% 15.91% 79.85%-1.93 -2.9 2
1912-12-07 Glentoran L 2-370.7 1552 1615 55.68% 16.49% 27.83%+0.22 -32.3 15
1912-12-07 @ Belfast Celtic W 3-270.7 1615 1552 27.83% 16.49% 55.68%-0.22 +32.3 18
1912-12-07 Linfield L 1-264.7 1528 1561 59.06% 16.48% 24.46%+0.36 -36.0 15
1912-12-07 @ Bohemian W 2-164.7 1561 1528 24.46% 16.48% 59.06%-0.36 +36.0 17
1912-12-07 Derry Celtic W 1-034.4 1527 1276 78.13% 16.06% 5.81%+1.66 +4.6 14
1912-12-07 @ Cliftonville L 0-134.4 1276 1527 5.81% 16.06% 78.13%-1.66 -4.6 6
1912-12-07 Glenavon W 3-046.4 1709 1646 68.07% 16.40% 15.54%+0.80 +32.1 20
1912-12-07 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-346.4 1646 1709 15.54% 16.40% 68.07%-0.80 -32.1 19
1912-12-07 Shelbourne L 1-250.2 1246 1340 51.85% 16.50% 31.65%+0.08 -31.8 2
1912-12-07 @ Tritonville W 2-150.2 1340 1246 31.65% 16.50% 51.85%-0.08 +31.8 10
1912-12-11 Belfast Celtic D 1-162.2 1372 1520 44.60% 16.49% 38.91%-0.16 -0.8 11
1912-12-11 @ Shelbourne D 1-162.2 1520 1372 38.91% 16.49% 44.60%+0.16 +0.8 16
1912-12-14 Glenavon D 0-066.7 1520 1614 51.89% 16.50% 31.61%+0.08 -3.4 17
1912-12-14 @ Belfast Celtic D 0-066.7 1614 1520 31.61% 16.50% 51.89%-0.08 +3.4 20
1912-12-14 Tritonville W 2-137.4 1532 1214 80.07% 15.89% 4.04%+1.97 +3.0 16
1912-12-14 @ Cliftonville L 1-237.4 1214 1532 4.04% 15.89% 80.07%-1.97 -3.0 2
1912-12-14 Linfield W 4-256.8 1647 1597 67.05% 16.41% 16.54%+0.74 +18.1 20
1912-12-14 @ Glentoran L 2-456.8 1597 1647 16.54% 16.41% 67.05%-0.74 -18.1 17
1912-12-14 Bohemian W 5-144.5 1741 1492 78.07% 16.06% 5.87%+1.65 +13.8 22
1912-12-14 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-544.5 1492 1741 5.87% 16.06% 78.07%-1.65 -13.8 15
1912-12-14 Derry Celtic W 4-239.7 1371 1272 70.73% 16.35% 12.92%+0.97 +14.4 13
1912-12-14 @ Shelbourne L 2-439.7 1272 1371 12.92% 16.35% 70.73%-0.97 -14.4 6
1912-12-18 Lisburn Distillery D 1-173.8 1517 1755 32.16% 16.45% 51.39%-0.58 +2.9 18
1912-12-18 @ Belfast Celtic D 1-173.8 1755 1517 51.39% 16.45% 32.16%+0.58 -2.9 23
1912-12-21 Cliftonville D 1-166.5 1478 1535 56.40% 16.49% 27.11%+0.25 -4.4 16
1912-12-21 @ Bohemian D 1-166.5 1535 1478 27.11% 16.49% 56.40%-0.25 +4.5 17
1912-12-21 Belfast Celtic W 3-258.0 1257 1520 29.02% 16.42% 54.56%-0.69 +31.6 8
1912-12-21 @ Derry Celtic L 2-358.0 1520 1257 54.56% 16.42% 29.02%+0.69 -31.6 18
1912-12-21 Linfield L 0-165.2 1617 1579 66.08% 16.42% 17.50%+0.69 -42.8 20
1912-12-21 @ Glenavon W 1-065.2 1579 1617 17.50% 16.42% 66.08%-0.69 +42.8 19
1912-12-21 Shelbourne D 1-171.0 1752 1385 81.17% 15.75% 3.09%+2.19 -13.1 24
1912-12-21 @ Lisburn Distillery D 1-171.0 1385 1752 3.09% 15.75% 81.17%-2.19 +13.1 14
1912-12-21 Glentoran L 1-242.9 1211 1665 11.78% 16.11% 72.11%-1.57 -8.5 2
1912-12-21 @ Tritonville W 2-142.9 1665 1211 72.11% 16.11% 11.78%+1.57 +8.5 22
1912-12-25 Lisburn Distillery W 1-060.7 1539 1739 37.26% 16.47% 46.27%-0.40 +30.5 19
1912-12-25 @ Cliftonville L 0-160.7 1739 1539 46.27% 16.47% 37.26%+0.40 -30.5 24
1912-12-25 Glenavon W 2-046.9 1674 1575 70.70% 16.35% 12.95%+0.97 +18.7 24
1912-12-25 @ Glentoran L 0-246.9 1575 1674 12.95% 16.35% 70.70%-0.97 -18.7 20
1912-12-25 Derry Celtic W 2-141.5 1622 1289 80.44% 15.84% 3.71%+2.04 +2.8 21
1912-12-25 @ Linfield L 1-241.5 1289 1622 3.71% 15.84% 80.44%-2.04 -2.8 8
1912-12-25 Belfast Celtic W 2-044.7 1203 1488 26.34% 16.40% 57.26%-0.80 +69.8 4
1912-12-25 @ Tritonville L 0-244.7 1488 1203 57.26% 16.40% 26.34%+0.80 -69.8 18
1912-12-26 Belfast Celtic W 4-032.9 1473 1418 67.45% 16.40% 16.15%+0.76 +43.4 18
1912-12-26 @ Bohemian L 0-432.9 1418 1473 16.15% 16.40% 67.45%-0.76 -43.4 18
1912-12-26 Glentoran L 0-161.0 1570 1692 48.05% 16.50% 35.45%-0.05 -31.5 19
1912-12-26 @ Cliftonville W 1-061.0 1692 1570 35.45% 16.50% 48.05%+0.05 +31.5 26
1912-12-26 Tritonville D 2-261.8 1286 1273 63.82% 16.45% 19.73%+0.57 -5.1 9
1912-12-26 @ Derry Celtic D 2-261.8 1273 1286 19.73% 16.45% 63.82%-0.57 +5.1 5
1912-12-26 Linfield L 1-273.1 1708 1625 69.64% 16.37% 13.99%+0.90 -42.6 24
1912-12-26 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-173.1 1625 1708 13.99% 16.37% 69.64%-0.90 +42.6 23
1912-12-26 Glenavon W 1-049.5 1399 1556 43.23% 16.49% 40.28%-0.21 +27.1 16
1912-12-26 @ Shelbourne L 0-149.5 1556 1399 40.28% 16.49% 43.23%+0.21 -27.1 20
1912-12-28 Bohemian W 2-043.0 1426 1517 52.21% 16.50% 31.29%+0.09 +41.2 18
1912-12-28 @ Shelbourne L 0-243.0 1517 1426 31.29% 16.50% 52.21%-0.09 -41.2 18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1912-11-02 4.98% Cliftonville 1488 2 @ Glentoran 1768 0
2 1912-10-19 10.65% Glenavon 1462 4 @ Linfield 1599 1
3 1912-09-07 13.33% Lisburn Distillery 1615 1 @ Glentoran 1708 0
4 1912-12-26 13.99% Linfield 1625 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1708 1
5 1912-09-07 14.48% Bohemian 1431 5 @ Tritonville 1508 1
6 1912-10-05 15.27% Cliftonville 1329 2 @ Derry Celtic 1396 1
7 1912-09-28 15.65% Belfast Celtic 1621 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1682 0
8 1912-12-21 17.50% Linfield 1579 1 @ Glenavon 1617 0
9 1912-10-12 18.19% Lisburn Distillery 1570 4 @ Bohemian 1601 1
10 1912-10-19 21.94% @ Shelbourne 1342 2 Lisburn Distillery 1668 1
11 1912-12-07 24.46% Linfield 1561 2 @ Bohemian 1528 1
12 1912-12-25 26.34% @ Tritonville 1203 2 Belfast Celtic 1488 0
13 1912-12-07 27.83% Glentoran 1615 3 @ Belfast Celtic 1552 2
14 1912-10-12 27.99% Cliftonville 1371 5 @ Tritonville 1307 2
15 1912-12-21 29.02% @ Derry Celtic 1257 3 Belfast Celtic 1520 2
16 1912-10-12 30.95% @ Glenavon 1428 1 Belfast Celtic 1675 0
17 1912-11-16 31.59% @ Linfield 1431 4 Belfast Celtic 1673 0
18 1912-12-07 31.65% Shelbourne 1340 2 @ Tritonville 1246 1
19 1912-12-26 35.45% Glentoran 1692 1 @ Cliftonville 1570 0
20 1912-10-05 37.18% @ Glenavon 1399 2 Lisburn Distillery 1599 1
21 1912-12-25 37.26% @ Cliftonville 1539 1 Lisburn Distillery 1739 0
22 1912-09-28 37.55% Bohemian 1564 1 @ Derry Celtic 1426 0
23 1912-11-02 40.13% @ Tritonville 1224 4 Derry Celtic 1403 1
24 1912-11-16 41.25% @ Bohemian 1483 4 Glentoran 1654 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1912-09-07 133.72 Bohemian 5 1431 14.48% @ Tritonville 1 1508 69.14% 16.38%
2 1912-11-16 120.96 @ Linfield 4 1431 31.59% Belfast Celtic 0 1673 51.97% 16.44%
3 1912-10-19 109.92 Glenavon 4 1462 10.65% @ Linfield 1 1599 73.06% 16.29%
4 1912-11-02 97.82 Cliftonville 2 1488 4.98% @ Glentoran 0 1768 79.03% 15.99%
5 1912-10-12 97.69 Lisburn Distillery 4 1570 18.19% @ Bohemian 1 1601 65.38% 16.43%
6 1912-09-28 83.04 Belfast Celtic 2 1621 15.65% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1682 67.95% 16.40%
7 1912-10-12 71.97 Cliftonville 5 1371 27.99% @ Tritonville 2 1307 55.52% 16.49%
8 1912-12-25 69.83 @ Tritonville 2 1203 26.34% Belfast Celtic 0 1488 57.26% 16.40%
9 1912-11-02 66.57 @ Tritonville 4 1224 40.13% Derry Celtic 1 1403 43.38% 16.48%
10 1912-11-16 65.11 @ Bohemian 4 1483 41.25% Glentoran 1 1654 42.26% 16.49%
11 1912-10-19 53.49 @ Cliftonville 3 1443 56.03% Bohemian 0 1503 27.48% 16.49%
12 1912-09-07 45.67 Lisburn Distillery 1 1615 13.33% @ Glentoran 0 1708 70.31% 16.36%
13 1912-12-26 43.40 @ Bohemian 4 1473 67.45% Belfast Celtic 0 1418 16.15% 16.40%
14 1912-09-14 43.08 @ Shelbourne 3 1360 62.02% Cliftonville 0 1365 21.52% 16.46%
15 1912-12-21 42.77 Linfield 1 1579 17.50% @ Glenavon 0 1617 66.08% 16.42%
16 1912-12-26 42.61 Linfield 2 1625 13.99% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1708 69.64% 16.37%
17 1912-10-05 41.77 Cliftonville 2 1329 15.27% @ Derry Celtic 1 1396 68.34% 16.39%
18 1912-12-28 41.21 @ Shelbourne 2 1426 52.21% Bohemian 0 1517 31.29% 16.50%
19 1912-10-19 37.57 @ Shelbourne 2 1342 21.94% Lisburn Distillery 1 1668 61.71% 16.34%
20 1912-09-28 36.66 Glentoran 2 1668 56.21% @ Shelbourne 0 1392 27.38% 16.41%
21 1912-12-07 36.01 Linfield 2 1561 24.46% @ Bohemian 1 1528 59.06% 16.48%
22 1912-10-26 35.36 @ Derry Celtic 4 1368 48.25% Linfield 2 1489 35.26% 16.50%
23 1912-11-23 35.18 @ Glenavon 3 1590 66.39% Bohemian 0 1548 17.19% 16.42%
24 1912-10-12 34.19 @ Glenavon 1 1428 30.95% Belfast Celtic 0 1675 52.62% 16.44%
25 1912-12-07 32.27 Glentoran 3 1615 27.83% @ Belfast Celtic 2 1552 55.68% 16.49%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1912-12-18 73.8 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1517 32.16% Lisburn Distillery 1 1755 51.39% 16.45%
2 1912-12-26 73.1 Linfield 2 1625 13.99% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1708 69.64% 16.37%
3 1912-10-09 72.2 @ Linfield 1 1598 62.90% Bohemian 1 1594 20.65% 16.45%
4 1912-12-21 71.0 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1752 81.17% Shelbourne 1 1385 3.09% 15.75%
5 1912-12-07 70.7 Glentoran 3 1615 27.83% @ Belfast Celtic 2 1552 55.68% 16.49%
6 1912-10-12 70.5 @ Linfield 0 1591 45.33% Glentoran 0 1734 38.17% 16.50%
7 1912-11-23 69.8 @ Cliftonville 1 1554 62.80% Linfield 1 1552 20.75% 16.45%
8 1912-10-16 69.1 @ Belfast Celtic 0 1641 67.10% Linfield 0 1590 16.49% 16.41%
9 1912-10-26 69.1 Glentoran 3 1743 42.25% @ Glenavon 2 1572 41.26% 16.49%
10 1912-09-07 68.5 Lisburn Distillery 1 1615 13.33% @ Glentoran 0 1708 70.31% 16.36%
11 1912-11-02 66.7 Cliftonville 2 1488 4.98% @ Glentoran 0 1768 79.03% 15.99%
12 1912-12-14 66.7 @ Belfast Celtic 0 1520 51.89% Glenavon 0 1614 31.61% 16.50%
13 1912-12-21 66.5 @ Bohemian 1 1478 56.40% Cliftonville 1 1535 27.11% 16.49%
14 1912-09-21 65.5 @ Derry Celtic 0 1422 30.62% Glentoran 0 1672 52.94% 16.43%
15 1912-12-21 65.2 Linfield 1 1579 17.50% @ Glenavon 0 1617 66.08% 16.42%
16 1912-12-07 64.7 Linfield 2 1561 24.46% @ Bohemian 1 1528 59.06% 16.48%
17 1912-09-28 64.2 Belfast Celtic 2 1621 15.65% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1682 67.95% 16.40%
18 1912-10-12 63.0 Lisburn Distillery 4 1570 18.19% @ Bohemian 1 1601 65.38% 16.43%
19 1912-10-19 62.6 @ Shelbourne 2 1342 21.94% Lisburn Distillery 1 1668 61.71% 16.34%
20 1912-12-11 62.2 @ Shelbourne 1 1372 44.60% Belfast Celtic 1 1520 38.91% 16.49%
21 1912-10-19 61.9 Glenavon 4 1462 10.65% @ Linfield 1 1599 73.06% 16.29%
22 1912-12-26 61.8 @ Derry Celtic 2 1286 63.82% Tritonville 2 1273 19.73% 16.45%
23 1912-12-26 61.0 Glentoran 1 1692 35.45% @ Cliftonville 0 1570 48.05% 16.50%
24 1912-12-25 60.7 @ Cliftonville 1 1539 37.26% Lisburn Distillery 0 1739 46.27% 16.47%
25 1912-11-09 59.0 @ Shelbourne 1 1338 52.48% Linfield 1 1427 31.02% 16.50%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1912-11-30 28.8 @ Bohemian 3 1513 77.09% Derry Celtic 0 1291 6.79% 16.13%
2 1912-11-23 29.6 @ Glentoran 5 1589 79.08% Derry Celtic 0 1308 4.93% 15.99%
3 1912-09-21 30.8 @ Linfield 3 1564 77.81% Cliftonville 0 1322 6.11% 16.08%
4 1912-11-09 31.3 @ Glenavon 3 1557 77.01% Derry Celtic 0 1337 6.86% 16.13%
5 1912-09-14 31.8 @ Shelbourne 3 1360 62.02% Cliftonville 0 1365 21.52% 16.46%
6 1912-10-26 31.9 @ Bohemian 3 1450 68.66% Shelbourne 0 1379 14.95% 16.39%
7 1912-10-19 32.7 @ Glentoran 8 1735 83.24% Tritonville 0 1235 1.47% 15.29%
8 1912-12-26 32.9 @ Bohemian 4 1473 67.45% Belfast Celtic 0 1418 16.15% 16.40%
9 1912-09-14 34.4 @ Glenavon 2 1403 65.24% Tritonville 0 1374 18.32% 16.43%
10 1912-12-07 34.4 @ Cliftonville 1 1527 78.13% Derry Celtic 0 1276 5.81% 16.06%
11 1912-10-19 35.2 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1632 78.14% Derry Celtic 0 1381 5.80% 16.06%
12 1912-11-30 35.6 @ Glentoran 2 1606 78.37% Shelbourne 0 1348 5.59% 16.04%
13 1912-10-05 36.0 @ Shelbourne 1 1355 65.78% Tritonville 0 1320 17.80% 16.43%
14 1912-12-14 37.4 @ Cliftonville 2 1532 80.07% Tritonville 1 1214 4.04% 15.89%
15 1912-09-21 38.3 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1610 76.49% Shelbourne 0 1403 7.35% 16.16%
16 1912-09-14 38.5 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1661 77.15% Derry Celtic 0 1437 6.73% 16.12%
17 1912-09-07 38.6 @ Linfield 1 1557 75.80% Shelbourne 0 1366 8.00% 16.19%
18 1912-11-02 39.2 @ Glenavon 3 1547 76.14% Shelbourne 1 1348 7.69% 16.18%
19 1912-10-19 39.4 @ Cliftonville 3 1443 56.03% Bohemian 0 1503 27.48% 16.49%
20 1912-09-21 39.6 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1675 80.29% Tritonville 1 1348 3.84% 15.86%
21 1912-10-12 39.6 @ Derry Celtic 3 1354 61.08% Shelbourne 1 1368 22.46% 16.47%
22 1912-12-14 39.7 @ Shelbourne 4 1371 70.73% Derry Celtic 2 1272 12.92% 16.35%
23 1912-11-09 40.0 @ Bohemian 4 1474 75.41% Tritonville 2 1291 8.38% 16.21%
24 1912-12-25 41.5 @ Linfield 2 1622 80.44% Derry Celtic 1 1289 3.71% 15.84%
25 1912-09-21 41.8 @ Bohemian 1 1555 72.45% Glenavon 0 1429 11.25% 16.31%