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1911-12 Irish League Season

56 games

Final

Champion

Glentoran

24 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lisburn Distillery

4.02 points above expected

21 points · 16.98 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Glenavon

5.56 points below expected

6 points · 11.56 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Glentoran 14 11 2 1 24 45 13 +32 21.63 +2.37
2 Lisburn Distillery 14 9 3 2 21 32 14 +18 16.98 +4.02
3 Belfast Celtic 14 7 6 1 20 21 11 +10 17.14 +2.86
4 Linfield 14 6 4 4 16 25 16 +9 17.39 -1.39
5 Derry Celtic 14 5 1 8 11 16 29 -13 9.65 +1.35
6 Shelbourne 14 2 3 9 7 12 33 -21 10.18 -3.18
7 Cliftonville 14 3 1 10 7 14 36 -22 7.47 -0.47
8 Glenavon 14 2 2 10 6 17 30 -13 11.56 -5.56

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lisburn Distillery 21 16.98 +4.02
2 Belfast Celtic 20 17.14 +2.86
3 Glentoran 24 21.63 +2.37
4 Derry Celtic 11 9.65 +1.35
5 Cliftonville 7 7.47 -0.47

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Glenavon 6 11.56 -5.56
2 Shelbourne 7 10.18 -3.18
3 Linfield 16 17.39 -1.39
4 Cliftonville 7 7.47 -0.47
5 Derry Celtic 11 9.65 +1.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glentoran 9 Oct 14 – Dec 23 1 in 33
2 Linfield 3 Sep 9 – Sep 23 1 in 18
3 Cliftonville 2 Dec 2 – Dec 9 1 in 15
4 Belfast Celtic 5 Oct 21 – Nov 25 1 in 11
5 Lisburn Distillery 3 Sep 16 – Oct 7 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glenavon 5 Sep 16 – Oct 21 1 in 41
2 Shelbourne 6 Oct 28 – Dec 23 1 in 16
3 Cliftonville 6 Oct 21 – Nov 25 1 in 9
4 Linfield 1 Sep 2 – Sep 2 1 in 7
5 Glentoran 1 Sep 16 – Sep 16 1 in 4

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Belfast Celtic 12 Sep 2 – Dec 2 1 in 57
2 Cliftonville 2 Oct 7 – Oct 14 1 in 9
3 Linfield 5 Sep 9 – Oct 14 1 in 6
4 Lisburn Distillery 6 Sep 16 – Oct 28 1 in 5
5 Shelbourne 2 Sep 2 – Sep 9 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glentoran 3 Sep 16 – Oct 7 1 in 19
2 Glenavon 6 Nov 4 – Dec 9 1 in 7
3 Belfast Celtic 3 Sep 23 – Oct 14 1 in 7
4 Shelbourne 6 Oct 28 – Dec 23 1 in 3
5 Lisburn Distillery 2 Oct 28 – Nov 4 1 in 3

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Glentoran 1875 24 +101 10 7.7 +2.3
Lisburn Distillery 1697 21 +64 9 7.3 +1.7
Belfast Celtic 1645 20 -17 6 6.3 -0.3
Linfield 1585 16 -66 4 6.4 -2.4
Derry Celtic 1394 11 +101 6 3.4 +2.6
Cliftonville 1288 7 +38 4 2.9 +1.1
Shelbourne 1250 7 -89 0 2.2 -2.2
Glenavon 1268 6 -113 1 3.0 -2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC CLI DC GLE GLE LIN LD SHE
Belfast Celtic —
1-1-0
4.92
2-0-0
3.74
2-0-0
3.99
0-1-1
2.04
1-1-0
2.70
0-2-0
2.75
1-1-0
4.34
Cliftonville
0-1-1
0.69
 —
0-0-2
1.97
2-0-0
1.66
0-0-2
1.07
0-0-2
1.23
0-0-2
1.05
1-0-1
2.38
Derry Celtic
0-0-2
1.85
2-0-0
3.62
 —
1-0-1
1.94
0-1-1
0.83
1-0-1
1.08
0-0-2
1.10
1-0-1
2.67
Glenavon
0-0-2
1.59
0-0-2
3.93
1-0-1
3.65
 —
0-0-2
0.63
0-1-1
1.72
0-0-2
1.48
1-1-0
2.95
Glentoran
1-1-0
3.54
2-0-0
4.53
1-1-0
4.77
2-0-0
4.98
 —
1-0-1
3.97
2-0-0
4.02
2-0-0
4.91
Linfield
0-1-1
2.88
2-0-0
4.37
1-0-1
4.51
1-1-0
3.87
1-0-1
1.61
 —
0-1-1
3.15
1-1-0
4.43
Lisburn Distillery
0-2-0
2.84
2-0-0
4.54
2-0-0
4.49
2-0-0
4.11
0-0-2
1.57
1-1-0
2.43
 —
2-0-0
4.08
Shelbourne
0-1-1
1.25
1-0-1
3.20
1-0-1
2.92
0-1-1
2.63
0-0-2
0.70
0-1-1
1.16
0-0-2
1.51
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.76 +5.6
Allowed 0.89 -6.7
Differential 0.93 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.36%9.82%6.25%0.89%—2.68%25.00%
19.82%8.93%5.36%4.46%1.79%2.68%33.04%
26.25%5.36%5.36%2.68%0.89%0.89%21.43%
30.89%4.46%2.68%—0.89%—8.93%
4—1.79%0.89%0.89%—0.89%4.46%
5+2.68%2.68%0.89%—0.89%—7.14%
Total25.00%33.04%21.43%8.93%4.46%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.62 1.62 +0.00
SD 1.66 1.66 2.45
CV 1.02 1.02 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 56

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
114.29%28.57%—7.14%——50.00%
221.43%7.14%7.14%———35.71%
3———————
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+———————
Total42.86%42.86%7.14%7.14%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.79 +0.71
SD 0.94 0.89 1.27
CV 0.63 1.14 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%14.29%7.14%——14.29%42.86%
114.29%—14.29%———28.57%
2—7.14%—7.14%7.14%—21.43%
3———————
4—————7.14%7.14%
5+———————
Total21.43%21.43%21.43%7.14%7.14%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.57 -1.57
SD 1.18 2.74 2.87
CV 1.18 1.06 —
Max 4 10 +1
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——28.57%———28.57%
121.43%7.14%—14.29%7.14%7.14%57.14%
2———————
3———————
4——7.14%7.14%——14.29%
5+———————
Total21.43%7.14%35.71%21.43%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 2.07 -0.93
SD 1.29 1.49 1.86
CV 1.13 0.72 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—21.43%7.14%7.14%——35.71%
1——7.14%7.14%—7.14%21.43%
27.14%—14.29%7.14%——28.57%
3—7.14%——7.14%—14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total7.14%28.57%28.57%21.43%7.14%7.14%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 2.14 -0.93
SD 1.12 1.35 1.64
CV 0.92 0.63 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%14.29%7.14%———35.71%
27.14%7.14%————14.29%
3—7.14%14.29%———21.43%
4———————
5+14.29%7.14%7.14%———28.57%
Total35.71%35.71%28.57%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.21 0.93 +2.29
SD 2.69 0.83 2.97
CV 0.84 0.89 —
Max 10 2 +10
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
014.29%21.43%————35.71%
1——7.14%———7.14%
2—14.29%14.29%———28.57%
3—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
4———————
5+—14.29%————14.29%
Total14.29%57.14%28.57%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.79 1.14 +0.64
SD 1.76 0.66 1.69
CV 0.99 0.58 —
Max 5 2 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%—————7.14%
114.29%14.29%7.14%———35.71%
27.14%——7.14%——14.29%
37.14%14.29%————21.43%
4—7.14%————7.14%
5+7.14%———7.14%—14.29%
Total42.86%35.71%7.14%7.14%7.14%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 1.00 +1.29
SD 1.59 1.24 1.68
CV 0.70 1.24 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 14

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.14%21.43%7.14%——7.14%42.86%
1—7.14%—7.14%7.14%7.14%28.57%
27.14%7.14%7.14%——7.14%28.57%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%35.71%14.29%7.14%7.14%21.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.86 2.36 -1.50
SD 0.86 2.13 2.28
CV 1.01 0.91 —
Max 2 7 +2
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 14

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Glentoran 1875 24 21.63 +2.37 90.0% 13 17 20 22 23 26 28
Lisburn Distillery 1697 21 16.98 +4.02 92.0% 10 12 15 17 19 22 26
Belfast Celtic 1645 20 17.14 +2.86 89.0% 8 13 15 17 19 22 24
Linfield 1585 16 17.39 -1.39 38.0% 11 12 15 18 20 22 24
Derry Celtic 1394 11 9.65 +1.35 80.0% 5 5 8 10 11 14 17
Cliftonville 1288 7 7.47 -0.47 52.0% 0 3 5 7 10 12 16
Glenavon 1268 6 11.56 -5.56 3.0% 3 7 10 12 13 16 17
Shelbourne 1250 7 10.18 -3.18 17.0% 3 5 8 10 12 15 17

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.07%
Clear Edge
48.21%19.64%32.14%
Elo Value
Home Edge
175 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
056.33500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.61 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.32+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.0
Top-Heavy
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
67%
Glentoran, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.21/gm
Comfortable
00.220.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.31 * Some Luck: 2.31 to 3.46 * Lucky: 3.46 to 4.62 * Wild Swing: 4.62 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.75 * Close: 0.75 to 1.12 * Off: 1.12 to 1.49 * Way Off: 1.49 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.06 points
Some Luck
02.897
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Off
00.932
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
92.00%
Lisburn Distillery
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Glenavon
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.27
Lopsided
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 233.02
2.14
Strong Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
90%
Wide Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Frequent
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Rare
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.49
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.16
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.40
Weak Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
14%
Chalky
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
11%
Solid Favorites
0%14%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.2 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.2 to 0.31 * Above Noise: 0.31 to 0.41 * Well Above Noise: 0.41 and up.
Probability calibration
0.97
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.24
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.146
Well Within Noise
00.2050.5

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Glentoran67.00%25.00%7.00%1.00%————
Lisburn Distillery11.00%28.00%27.00%21.00%10.00%2.00%1.00%—
Belfast Celtic7.00%25.00%33.00%28.00%4.00%2.00%—1.00%
Linfield15.00%22.00%27.00%25.00%9.00%2.00%——
Derry Celtic——2.00%3.00%11.00%36.00%33.00%15.00%
Shelbourne——2.00%7.00%19.00%21.00%34.00%17.00%
Cliftonville———3.00%5.00%16.00%15.00%61.00%
Glenavon——2.00%12.00%42.00%21.00%17.00%6.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Derry Celtic 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Shelbourne 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1911-09-02 Belfast Celtic L 0-248.5 1450 1513 42.58% 20.83% 36.59%-0.04 -73.7 0
1911-09-02 @ Derry Celtic W 2-048.5 1513 1450 36.59% 20.83% 42.58%+0.04 +73.7 2
1911-09-02 Cliftonville W 10-043.1 1593 1478 62.87% 20.68% 16.45%+0.99 +150.8 2
1911-09-02 @ Glentoran L 0-1043.1 1478 1593 16.45% 20.68% 62.87%-0.99 -150.8 0
1911-09-02 Lisburn Distillery L 0-160.6 1594 1454 64.82% 20.63% 14.54%+1.13 -57.9 0
1911-09-02 @ Linfield W 1-060.6 1454 1594 14.54% 20.63% 64.82%-1.13 +57.9 2
1911-09-02 Glenavon D 2-264.1 1429 1490 42.93% 20.83% 36.24%-0.03 -1.0 1
1911-09-02 @ Shelbourne D 2-264.1 1490 1429 36.24% 20.83% 42.93%+0.03 +1.0 1
1911-09-09 Shelbourne D 1-163.3 1587 1428 66.16% 20.59% 13.25%+1.23 -11.5 3
1911-09-09 @ Belfast Celtic D 1-163.3 1428 1587 13.25% 20.59% 66.16%-1.23 +11.5 2
1911-09-09 Linfield L 1-245.9 1327 1536 23.65% 20.71% 55.64%-0.88 -22.8 0
1911-09-09 @ Cliftonville W 2-145.9 1536 1327 55.64% 20.71% 23.65%+0.88 +22.8 2
1911-09-09 Derry Celtic W 2-037.5 1491 1376 62.80% 20.68% 16.52%+0.98 +33.5 3
1911-09-09 @ Glenavon L 0-237.5 1376 1491 16.52% 20.68% 62.80%-0.98 -33.5 0
1911-09-09 Glentoran L 2-361.6 1511 1744 21.20% 20.67% 58.13%-1.01 -19.7 2
1911-09-09 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-261.6 1744 1511 58.13% 20.67% 21.20%+1.01 +19.7 4
1911-09-16 Glenavon W 1-049.8 1575 1524 56.74% 20.77% 22.49%+0.61 +23.2 5
1911-09-16 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-149.8 1524 1575 22.49% 20.77% 56.74%-0.61 -23.2 3
1911-09-16 Shelbourne W 1-045.1 1342 1440 37.78% 20.82% 41.40%-0.23 +38.2 2
1911-09-16 @ Derry Celtic L 0-145.1 1440 1342 41.40% 20.82% 37.78%+0.23 -38.2 2
1911-09-16 Glentoran W 2-168.4 1559 1764 24.10% 20.72% 55.18%-0.85 +46.4 4
1911-09-16 @ Linfield L 1-268.4 1764 1559 55.18% 20.72% 24.10%+0.85 -46.4 4
1911-09-16 Cliftonville W 5-030.8 1492 1304 68.08% 20.53% 11.40%+1.40 +56.1 4
1911-09-16 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-530.8 1304 1492 11.40% 20.53% 68.08%-1.40 -56.1 0
1911-09-23 Derry Celtic L 0-140.5 1248 1381 32.91% 20.80% 46.29%-0.44 -31.8 0
1911-09-23 @ Cliftonville W 1-040.5 1381 1248 46.29% 20.80% 32.91%+0.44 +31.8 4
1911-09-23 Linfield L 1-356.4 1501 1605 36.80% 20.82% 42.38%-0.27 -56.8 3
1911-09-23 @ Glenavon W 3-156.4 1605 1501 42.38% 20.82% 36.80%+0.27 +56.8 6
1911-09-23 Belfast Celtic D 1-171.0 1718 1598 63.16% 20.67% 16.17%+1.01 -10.0 5
1911-09-23 @ Glentoran D 1-171.0 1598 1718 16.17% 20.67% 63.16%-1.01 +10.0 6
1911-09-23 Lisburn Distillery L 0-244.6 1401 1548 31.08% 20.79% 48.12%-0.52 -57.2 2
1911-09-23 @ Shelbourne W 2-044.6 1548 1401 48.12% 20.79% 31.08%+0.52 +57.2 6
1911-09-30 Derry Celtic W 2-041.1 1344 1412 41.90% 20.83% 37.27%-0.07 +66.3 4
1911-09-30 @ Shelbourne L 0-241.1 1412 1344 37.27% 20.83% 41.90%+0.07 -66.3 4
1911-10-07 Cliftonville D 0-053.7 1608 1216 76.39% 19.82% 3.79%+2.57 -18.7 7
1911-10-07 @ Belfast Celtic D 0-053.7 1216 1608 3.79% 19.82% 76.39%-2.57 +18.7 1
1911-10-07 Glentoran D 1-164.8 1346 1708 11.16% 20.36% 68.48%-1.75 +12.6 5
1911-10-07 @ Derry Celtic D 1-164.8 1708 1346 68.48% 20.36% 11.16%+1.75 -12.6 6
1911-10-07 Lisburn Distillery L 0-150.1 1444 1605 29.29% 20.78% 49.94%-0.60 -28.9 3
1911-10-07 @ Glenavon W 1-050.1 1605 1444 49.94% 20.78% 29.29%+0.60 +28.9 8
1911-10-07 Linfield D 0-061.9 1410 1662 19.38% 20.64% 59.98%-1.12 +9.5 5
1911-10-07 @ Shelbourne D 0-061.9 1662 1410 59.98% 20.64% 19.38%+1.12 -9.5 7
1911-10-14 Glenavon W 2-150.6 1235 1415 26.89% 20.75% 52.35%-0.71 +44.1 3
1911-10-14 @ Cliftonville L 1-250.6 1415 1235 52.35% 20.75% 26.89%+0.71 -44.1 3
1911-10-14 Shelbourne W 7-040.5 1695 1420 72.56% 20.27% 7.17%+1.90 +50.1 8
1911-10-14 @ Glentoran L 0-740.5 1420 1695 7.17% 20.27% 72.56%-1.90 -50.1 5
1911-10-14 Derry Celtic W 5-140.2 1653 1359 73.31% 20.21% 6.48%+2.01 +22.4 9
1911-10-14 @ Linfield L 1-540.2 1359 1653 6.48% 20.21% 73.31%-2.01 -22.4 5
1911-10-14 Belfast Celtic D 1-169.5 1634 1590 56.04% 20.78% 23.18%+0.58 -6.8 9
1911-10-14 @ Lisburn Distillery D 1-169.5 1590 1634 23.18% 20.78% 56.04%-0.58 +6.8 8
1911-10-21 Linfield W 2-162.8 1596 1675 40.45% 20.83% 38.72%-0.13 +34.1 10
1911-10-21 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-262.8 1675 1596 38.72% 20.83% 40.45%+0.13 -34.2 9
1911-10-21 Lisburn Distillery L 1-344.9 1336 1627 16.00% 20.55% 63.45%-1.34 -28.1 5
1911-10-21 @ Derry Celtic W 3-144.9 1627 1336 63.45% 20.55% 16.00%+1.34 +28.1 11
1911-10-21 Glenavon W 3-252.9 1745 1371 75.90% 19.90% 4.19%+2.46 +4.4 10
1911-10-21 @ Glentoran L 2-352.9 1371 1745 4.19% 19.90% 75.90%-2.46 -4.4 3
1911-10-21 Cliftonville W 2-140.4 1370 1279 60.68% 20.72% 18.60%+0.84 +18.6 7
1911-10-21 @ Shelbourne L 1-240.4 1279 1370 18.60% 20.72% 60.68%-0.84 -18.6 3
1911-10-28 Derry Celtic W 4-138.8 1631 1308 74.34% 20.11% 5.55%+2.17 +14.9 12
1911-10-28 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-438.8 1308 1631 5.55% 20.11% 74.34%-2.17 -14.9 5
1911-10-28 Glentoran L 0-141.2 1260 1749 5.66% 19.89% 74.45%-2.48 -6.5 3
1911-10-28 @ Cliftonville W 1-041.2 1749 1260 74.45% 19.89% 5.66%+2.48 +6.5 12
1911-10-28 Shelbourne W 3-143.6 1367 1388 48.22% 20.83% 30.95%+0.20 +49.4 5
1911-10-28 @ Glenavon L 1-343.6 1388 1367 30.95% 20.83% 48.22%-0.20 -49.4 7
1911-10-28 Linfield D 0-067.2 1655 1641 52.69% 20.81% 26.51%+0.41 -5.9 12
1911-10-28 @ Lisburn Distillery D 0-067.2 1641 1655 26.51% 20.81% 52.69%-0.41 +5.9 10
1911-11-04 Glenavon W 4-356.5 1293 1416 34.20% 20.81% 44.99%-0.38 +35.7 7
1911-11-04 @ Derry Celtic L 3-456.5 1416 1293 44.99% 20.81% 34.20%+0.38 -35.7 5
1911-11-04 Lisburn Distillery W 2-157.8 1756 1649 62.08% 20.70% 17.22%+0.93 +17.4 14
1911-11-04 @ Glentoran L 1-257.8 1649 1756 17.22% 20.70% 62.08%-0.93 -17.4 12
1911-11-04 Cliftonville W 3-245.1 1647 1254 76.40% 19.82% 3.78%+2.57 +4.0 12
1911-11-04 @ Linfield L 2-345.1 1254 1647 3.78% 19.82% 76.40%-2.57 -4.0 3
1911-11-04 Belfast Celtic L 0-143.2 1339 1646 14.79% 20.51% 64.69%-1.43 -16.1 7
1911-11-04 @ Shelbourne W 1-043.2 1646 1339 64.69% 20.51% 14.79%+1.43 +16.1 14
1911-11-11 Lisburn Distillery L 4-551.4 1250 1632 10.02% 20.29% 69.69%-1.87 -9.7 3
1911-11-11 @ Cliftonville W 5-451.4 1632 1250 69.69% 20.29% 10.02%+1.87 +9.7 14
1911-11-11 Belfast Celtic L 0-243.7 1381 1662 16.80% 20.57% 62.62%-1.29 -33.9 5
1911-11-11 @ Glenavon W 2-043.7 1662 1381 62.62% 20.57% 16.80%+1.29 +33.9 16
1911-11-11 Linfield W 1-053.4 1773 1651 63.44% 20.67% 15.89%+1.03 +17.2 16
1911-11-11 @ Glentoran L 0-153.4 1651 1773 15.89% 20.67% 63.44%-1.03 -17.2 12
1911-11-18 Cliftonville W 4-241.7 1329 1240 60.49% 20.72% 18.78%+0.83 +29.0 9
1911-11-18 @ Derry Celtic L 2-441.7 1240 1329 18.78% 20.72% 60.49%-0.83 -29.0 3
1911-11-18 Glenavon D 2-266.5 1633 1347 73.03% 20.23% 6.73%+1.97 -11.2 13
1911-11-18 @ Linfield D 2-266.5 1347 1633 6.73% 20.23% 73.03%-1.97 +11.2 6
1911-11-18 Shelbourne W 4-139.8 1642 1323 74.22% 20.12% 5.66%+2.15 +15.2 16
1911-11-18 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-439.8 1323 1642 5.66% 20.12% 74.22%-2.15 -15.2 7
1911-11-25 Belfast Celtic L 0-235.3 1211 1695 5.81% 19.91% 74.28%-2.45 -12.7 3
1911-11-25 @ Cliftonville W 2-035.3 1695 1211 74.28% 19.91% 5.81%+2.45 +12.7 18
1911-11-25 Derry Celtic W 2-042.8 1791 1358 77.32% 19.64% 3.04%+2.80 +6.7 18
1911-11-25 @ Glentoran L 0-242.8 1358 1791 3.04% 19.64% 77.32%-2.80 -6.8 9
1911-11-25 Shelbourne W 5-137.0 1622 1308 74.07% 20.14% 5.79%+2.13 +20.1 15
1911-11-25 @ Linfield L 1-537.0 1308 1622 5.79% 20.14% 74.07%-2.13 -20.1 7
1911-11-25 Glenavon W 3-037.6 1657 1358 73.51% 20.19% 6.30%+2.04 +20.0 18
1911-11-25 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-337.6 1358 1657 6.30% 20.19% 73.51%-2.04 -20.0 6
1911-12-02 Lisburn Distillery D 1-171.6 1708 1677 54.59% 20.79% 24.62%+0.50 -6.1 19
1911-12-02 @ Belfast Celtic D 1-171.6 1677 1708 24.62% 20.79% 54.59%-0.50 +6.1 19
1911-12-02 Linfield W 1-058.2 1351 1642 15.99% 20.55% 63.46%-1.35 +56.5 11
1911-12-02 @ Derry Celtic L 0-158.2 1642 1351 63.46% 20.55% 15.99%+1.35 -56.5 15
1911-12-02 Cliftonville L 0-149.4 1338 1199 64.74% 20.64% 14.62%+1.12 -57.8 6
1911-12-02 @ Glenavon W 1-049.4 1199 1338 14.62% 20.64% 64.74%-1.12 +57.8 5
1911-12-04 Glentoran L 1-362.5 1702 1797 38.05% 20.82% 41.13%-0.22 -58.3 19
1911-12-04 @ Belfast Celtic W 3-162.5 1797 1702 41.13% 20.82% 38.05%+0.22 +58.3 20
1911-12-09 Shelbourne W 1-039.8 1256 1288 46.94% 20.83% 32.23%+0.14 +31.3 7
1911-12-09 @ Cliftonville L 0-139.8 1288 1256 32.23% 20.83% 46.94%-0.14 -31.3 7
1911-12-09 Glentoran L 1-543.4 1280 1856 3.53% 19.50% 76.97%-2.98 -12.3 6
1911-12-09 @ Glenavon W 5-143.4 1856 1280 76.97% 19.50% 3.53%+2.98 +12.3 22
1911-12-09 Belfast Celtic D 2-274.0 1586 1644 43.35% 20.83% 35.82%-0.01 -1.1 16
1911-12-09 @ Linfield D 2-274.0 1644 1586 35.82% 20.83% 43.35%+0.01 +1.1 20
1911-12-09 Derry Celtic W 3-146.8 1683 1408 72.56% 20.27% 7.16%+1.90 +13.5 21
1911-12-09 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-346.8 1408 1683 7.16% 20.27% 72.56%-1.90 -13.5 11
1911-12-23 Glentoran L 2-547.5 1256 1868 2.90% 19.31% 77.79%-3.18 -6.8 7
1911-12-23 @ Shelbourne W 5-247.5 1868 1256 77.79% 19.31% 2.90%+3.18 +6.8 24

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1911-09-02 14.54% Lisburn Distillery 1454 1 @ Linfield 1594 0
2 1911-12-02 14.62% Cliftonville 1199 1 @ Glenavon 1338 0
3 1911-12-02 15.99% @ Derry Celtic 1351 1 Linfield 1642 0
4 1911-09-16 24.10% @ Linfield 1559 2 Glentoran 1764 1
5 1911-10-14 26.89% @ Cliftonville 1235 2 Glenavon 1415 1
6 1911-11-04 34.20% @ Derry Celtic 1293 4 Glenavon 1416 3
7 1911-09-02 36.59% Belfast Celtic 1513 2 @ Derry Celtic 1450 0
8 1911-09-16 37.78% @ Derry Celtic 1342 1 Shelbourne 1440 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1911-09-02 150.84 @ Glentoran 10 1593 62.87% Cliftonville 0 1478 16.45% 20.68%
2 1911-09-02 73.73 Belfast Celtic 2 1513 36.59% @ Derry Celtic 0 1450 42.58% 20.83%
3 1911-09-30 66.27 @ Shelbourne 2 1344 41.90% Derry Celtic 0 1412 37.27% 20.83%
4 1911-12-04 58.34 Glentoran 3 1797 41.13% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1702 38.05% 20.82%
5 1911-09-02 57.87 Lisburn Distillery 1 1454 14.54% @ Linfield 0 1594 64.82% 20.63%
6 1911-12-02 57.80 Cliftonville 1 1199 14.62% @ Glenavon 0 1338 64.74% 20.64%
7 1911-09-23 57.22 Lisburn Distillery 2 1548 48.12% @ Shelbourne 0 1401 31.08% 20.79%
8 1911-09-23 56.80 Linfield 3 1605 42.38% @ Glenavon 1 1501 36.80% 20.82%
9 1911-12-02 56.52 @ Derry Celtic 1 1351 15.99% Linfield 0 1642 63.46% 20.55%
10 1911-09-16 56.12 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1492 68.08% Cliftonville 0 1304 11.40% 20.53%
11 1911-10-14 50.07 @ Glentoran 7 1695 72.56% Shelbourne 0 1420 7.17% 20.27%
12 1911-10-28 49.40 @ Glenavon 3 1367 48.22% Shelbourne 1 1388 30.95% 20.83%
13 1911-09-16 46.36 @ Linfield 2 1559 24.10% Glentoran 1 1764 55.18% 20.72%
14 1911-10-14 44.13 @ Cliftonville 2 1235 26.89% Glenavon 1 1415 52.35% 20.75%
15 1911-09-16 38.21 @ Derry Celtic 1 1342 37.78% Shelbourne 0 1440 41.40% 20.82%
16 1911-11-04 35.73 @ Derry Celtic 4 1293 34.20% Glenavon 3 1416 44.99% 20.81%
17 1911-10-21 34.16 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1596 40.45% Linfield 1 1675 38.72% 20.83%
18 1911-11-11 33.91 Belfast Celtic 2 1662 62.62% @ Glenavon 0 1381 16.80% 20.57%
19 1911-09-09 33.47 @ Glenavon 2 1491 62.80% Derry Celtic 0 1376 16.52% 20.68%
20 1911-09-23 31.79 Derry Celtic 1 1381 46.29% @ Cliftonville 0 1248 32.91% 20.80%
21 1911-12-09 31.26 @ Cliftonville 1 1256 46.94% Shelbourne 0 1288 32.23% 20.83%
22 1911-11-18 29.02 @ Derry Celtic 4 1329 60.49% Cliftonville 2 1240 18.78% 20.72%
23 1911-10-07 28.90 Lisburn Distillery 1 1605 49.94% @ Glenavon 0 1444 29.29% 20.78%
24 1911-10-21 28.12 Lisburn Distillery 3 1627 63.45% @ Derry Celtic 1 1336 16.00% 20.55%
25 1911-09-16 23.19 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1575 56.74% Glenavon 0 1524 22.49% 20.77%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1911-12-09 74.0 @ Linfield 2 1586 43.35% Belfast Celtic 2 1644 35.82% 20.83%
2 1911-12-02 71.6 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1708 54.59% Lisburn Distillery 1 1677 24.62% 20.79%
3 1911-09-23 71.0 @ Glentoran 1 1718 63.16% Belfast Celtic 1 1598 16.17% 20.67%
4 1911-10-14 69.5 @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1634 56.04% Belfast Celtic 1 1590 23.18% 20.78%
5 1911-09-16 68.4 @ Linfield 2 1559 24.10% Glentoran 1 1764 55.18% 20.72%
6 1911-10-28 67.2 @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1655 52.69% Linfield 0 1641 26.51% 20.81%
7 1911-11-18 66.5 @ Linfield 2 1633 73.03% Glenavon 2 1347 6.73% 20.23%
8 1911-10-07 64.8 @ Derry Celtic 1 1346 11.16% Glentoran 1 1708 68.48% 20.36%
9 1911-09-02 64.1 @ Shelbourne 2 1429 42.93% Glenavon 2 1490 36.24% 20.83%
10 1911-09-09 63.3 @ Belfast Celtic 1 1587 66.16% Shelbourne 1 1428 13.25% 20.59%
11 1911-10-21 62.8 @ Belfast Celtic 2 1596 40.45% Linfield 1 1675 38.72% 20.83%
12 1911-12-04 62.5 Glentoran 3 1797 41.13% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1702 38.05% 20.82%
13 1911-10-07 61.9 @ Shelbourne 0 1410 19.38% Linfield 0 1662 59.98% 20.64%
14 1911-09-09 61.6 Glentoran 3 1744 58.13% @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1511 21.20% 20.67%
15 1911-09-02 60.6 Lisburn Distillery 1 1454 14.54% @ Linfield 0 1594 64.82% 20.63%
16 1911-12-02 58.2 @ Derry Celtic 1 1351 15.99% Linfield 0 1642 63.46% 20.55%
17 1911-11-04 57.8 @ Glentoran 2 1756 62.08% Lisburn Distillery 1 1649 17.22% 20.70%
18 1911-11-04 56.5 @ Derry Celtic 4 1293 34.20% Glenavon 3 1416 44.99% 20.81%
19 1911-09-23 56.4 Linfield 3 1605 42.38% @ Glenavon 1 1501 36.80% 20.82%
20 1911-10-07 53.7 @ Belfast Celtic 0 1608 76.39% Cliftonville 0 1216 3.79% 19.82%
21 1911-11-11 53.4 @ Glentoran 1 1773 63.44% Linfield 0 1651 15.89% 20.67%
22 1911-10-21 52.9 @ Glentoran 3 1745 75.90% Glenavon 2 1371 4.19% 19.90%
23 1911-11-11 51.4 Lisburn Distillery 5 1632 69.69% @ Cliftonville 4 1250 10.02% 20.29%
24 1911-10-14 50.6 @ Cliftonville 2 1235 26.89% Glenavon 1 1415 52.35% 20.75%
25 1911-10-07 50.1 Lisburn Distillery 1 1605 49.94% @ Glenavon 0 1444 29.29% 20.78%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1911-09-16 30.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1492 68.08% Cliftonville 0 1304 11.40% 20.53%
2 1911-11-25 35.3 Belfast Celtic 2 1695 74.28% @ Cliftonville 0 1211 5.81% 19.91%
3 1911-11-25 37.0 @ Linfield 5 1622 74.07% Shelbourne 1 1308 5.79% 20.14%
4 1911-09-09 37.5 @ Glenavon 2 1491 62.80% Derry Celtic 0 1376 16.52% 20.68%
5 1911-11-25 37.6 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1657 73.51% Glenavon 0 1358 6.30% 20.19%
6 1911-10-28 38.8 @ Belfast Celtic 4 1631 74.34% Derry Celtic 1 1308 5.55% 20.11%
7 1911-11-18 39.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1642 74.22% Shelbourne 1 1323 5.66% 20.12%
8 1911-12-09 39.8 @ Cliftonville 1 1256 46.94% Shelbourne 0 1288 32.23% 20.83%
9 1911-10-14 40.2 @ Linfield 5 1653 73.31% Derry Celtic 1 1359 6.48% 20.21%
10 1911-10-21 40.4 @ Shelbourne 2 1370 60.68% Cliftonville 1 1279 18.60% 20.72%
11 1911-09-23 40.5 Derry Celtic 1 1381 46.29% @ Cliftonville 0 1248 32.91% 20.80%
12 1911-10-14 40.5 @ Glentoran 7 1695 72.56% Shelbourne 0 1420 7.17% 20.27%
13 1911-09-30 41.1 @ Shelbourne 2 1344 41.90% Derry Celtic 0 1412 37.27% 20.83%
14 1911-10-28 41.2 Glentoran 1 1749 74.45% @ Cliftonville 0 1260 5.66% 19.89%
15 1911-11-18 41.7 @ Derry Celtic 4 1329 60.49% Cliftonville 2 1240 18.78% 20.72%
16 1911-11-25 42.8 @ Glentoran 2 1791 77.32% Derry Celtic 0 1358 3.04% 19.64%
17 1911-09-02 43.1 @ Glentoran 10 1593 62.87% Cliftonville 0 1478 16.45% 20.68%
18 1911-11-04 43.2 Belfast Celtic 1 1646 64.69% @ Shelbourne 0 1339 14.79% 20.51%
19 1911-12-09 43.4 Glentoran 5 1856 76.97% @ Glenavon 1 1280 3.53% 19.50%
20 1911-10-28 43.6 @ Glenavon 3 1367 48.22% Shelbourne 1 1388 30.95% 20.83%
21 1911-11-11 43.7 Belfast Celtic 2 1662 62.62% @ Glenavon 0 1381 16.80% 20.57%
22 1911-09-23 44.6 Lisburn Distillery 2 1548 48.12% @ Shelbourne 0 1401 31.08% 20.79%
23 1911-10-21 44.9 Lisburn Distillery 3 1627 63.45% @ Derry Celtic 1 1336 16.00% 20.55%
24 1911-09-16 45.1 @ Derry Celtic 1 1342 37.78% Shelbourne 0 1440 41.40% 20.82%
25 1911-11-04 45.1 @ Linfield 3 1647 76.40% Cliftonville 2 1254 3.78% 19.82%