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1923-24 Irish League Season

90 games · 3 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Queens Island

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Queens Island

6.64 points above expected

26 points · 19.36 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Newry Town

6.09 points below expected

9 points · 15.09 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Queens Island* 18 12 4 2 26 48 18 +30 19.36 +6.64
2 Linfield 18 8 4 6 20 31 27 +4 21.03 -1.03
3 Lisburn Distillery 18 7 6 5 20 32 30 +2 18.64 +1.36
4 Glenavon 18 5 10 3 20 27 30 -3 17.11 +2.89
5 Glentoran 18 9 1 8 19 32 23 +9 18.78 +0.22
6 Cliftonville 18 6 6 6 18 24 24 0 17.57 +0.43
7 Barn 18 6 4 8 16 23 29 -6 16.82 -0.82
8 Larne 18 6 4 8 16 33 44 -11 17.03 -1.03
9 Ards 18 5 4 9 14 19 30 -11 16.57 -2.57
10 Newry Town 18 2 5 11 9 25 39 -14 15.09 -6.09

* Point deductions: Queens Island (-2 pts)

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Queens Island 26 19.36 +6.64
2 Glenavon 20 17.11 +2.89
3 Lisburn Distillery 20 18.64 +1.36
4 Cliftonville 18 17.57 +0.43
5 Glentoran 19 18.78 +0.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Newry Town 9 15.09 -6.09
2 Ards 14 16.57 -2.57
3 Linfield 20 21.03 -1.03
4 Larne 16 17.03 -1.03
5 Barn 16 16.82 -0.82

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glenavon 3 Dec 15 – Dec 25 1 in 35
2 Queens Island 4 Sep 22 – Oct 27 1 in 22
3 Barn 3 Sep 8 – Sep 22 1 in 20
4 Cliftonville 2 Sep 22 – Oct 6 1 in 15
5 Glentoran 3 Dec 8 – Dec 22 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glentoran 3 Sep 1 – Sep 15 1 in 87
2 Newry Town 3 Sep 15 – Oct 6 1 in 25
3 Linfield 2 Aug 25 – Sep 1 1 in 16
4 Ards 2 Sep 15 – Sep 22 1 in 11
5 Barn 2 Aug 25 – Sep 1 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glenavon 7 Oct 6 – Dec 1 1 in 66
2 Cliftonville 7 Sep 1 – Oct 27 1 in 40
3 Queens Island 10 Aug 25 – Nov 17 1 in 33
4 Lisburn Distillery 5 Sep 22 – Nov 3 1 in 7
5 Newry Town 2 Oct 13 – Oct 27 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Newry Town 15 Aug 25 – Dec 22 1 in 223
2 Glenavon 9 Sep 22 – Dec 8 1 in 20
3 Ards 6 Sep 8 – Oct 27 1 in 16
4 Glentoran 4 Oct 6 – Nov 3 1 in 8
5 Cliftonville 4 Oct 13 – Nov 17 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Queens Island 1698 28 +64 8 6.9 +1.1
Glenavon 1463 20 +19 7 4.6 +2.4
Linfield 1567 20 +1 6 6.4 -0.4
Lisburn Distillery 1504 20 +16 6 5.1 +0.9
Glentoran 1583 19 +38 8 6.5 +1.5
Cliftonville 1462 18 -69 2 5.6 -3.6
Barn 1476 16 +9 4 3.6 +0.4
Larne 1419 16 -66 3 4.2 -1.2
Ards 1419 14 -24 2 3.3 -1.3
Newry Town 1410 9 +12 4 3.8 +0.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BAR CLI GLE GLE LAR LIN LD NT QI
Ards —
1-1-0
2.66
0-1-1
2.85
0-1-1
2.75
0-0-2
2.57
1-0-1
2.65
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
2.44
1-1-0
3.03
0-0-2
1.71
Barn
0-1-1
2.78
 —
0-0-2
2.92
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.42
0-1-1
2.19
0-2-0
2.62
2-0-0
2.90
1-0-1
1.50
Cliftonville
1-1-0
2.58
2-0-0
2.52
 —
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
2.52
1-1-0
2.90
1-0-1
2.25
0-0-2
2.58
0-1-1
3.27
0-2-0
2.10
Glenavon
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
2.61
1-1-0
2.77
 —
1-0-1
2.53
0-2-0
2.51
1-1-0
2.11
0-2-0
2.49
0-2-0
2.95
0-1-1
1.56
Glentoran
2-0-0
2.88
1-0-1
2.96
1-0-1
2.92
1-0-1
2.92
 —
1-0-1
3.00
2-0-0
2.14
1-0-1
2.75
0-1-1
3.60
0-0-2
2.57
Larne
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
3.02
0-1-1
2.54
0-2-0
2.94
1-0-1
2.46
 —
0-1-1
2.03
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
2.86
0-0-2
2.05
Linfield
1-0-1
3.32
1-1-0
3.26
1-0-1
3.19
0-1-1
3.34
0-0-2
3.30
1-1-0
3.41
 —
1-1-0
3.03
2-0-0
3.54
1-0-1
2.87
Lisburn Distillery
1-0-1
3.00
0-2-0
2.82
2-0-0
2.86
0-2-0
2.95
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.61
0-1-1
2.43
 —
2-0-0
3.15
0-1-1
2.62
Newry Town
0-1-1
2.41
0-0-2
2.54
1-1-0
2.17
0-2-0
2.49
1-1-0
1.85
0-0-2
2.59
0-0-2
1.92
0-0-2
2.29
 —
0-0-2
1.73
Queens Island
2-0-0
3.76
1-0-1
3.95
0-2-0
3.35
1-1-0
3.91
2-0-0
2.88
2-0-0
3.40
1-0-1
2.56
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.75
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.56 +4.2
Allowed 0.51 -4.2
Differential 0.78 +3.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.78%5.00%4.44%1.11%2.78%0.56%21.67%
15.00%10.00%9.44%3.33%2.78%0.56%31.11%
24.44%9.44%4.44%3.33%0.56%0.56%22.78%
31.11%3.33%3.33%3.33%1.67%0.56%13.33%
42.78%2.78%0.56%1.67%1.11%—8.89%
5+0.56%0.56%0.56%0.56%——2.22%
Total21.67%31.11%22.78%13.33%8.89%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 1.63 +0.00
SD 1.32 1.32 1.81
CV 0.81 0.81 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—22.22%—5.56%—33.33%
111.11%16.67%16.67%———44.44%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
3—————5.56%5.56%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 1.67 -0.61
SD 1.11 1.37 1.54
CV 1.05 0.82 —
Max 4 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%——5.56%—38.89%
1——11.11%—11.11%—22.22%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%33.33%—16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.61 -0.33
SD 1.32 1.33 1.75
CV 1.03 0.83 —
Max 4 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
116.67%16.67%11.11%———44.44%
25.56%——5.56%—5.56%16.67%
3——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.14 1.37 1.41
CV 0.85 1.03 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
15.56%16.67%————22.22%
2—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
3——5.56%11.11%——16.67%
4————5.56%—5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%33.33%27.78%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.67 -0.17
SD 1.25 1.24 1.29
CV 0.83 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
15.56%—22.22%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.28 +0.50
SD 1.44 0.96 2.07
CV 0.81 0.75 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
15.56%5.56%—16.67%5.56%5.56%38.89%
2—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
3—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+———5.56%——5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%5.56%44.44%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.83 2.44 -0.61
SD 1.50 1.50 2.17
CV 0.82 0.62 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
1—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
211.11%16.67%————27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—22.22%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%22.22%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 1.50 +0.22
SD 1.18 1.20 1.63
CV 0.68 0.80 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
1—16.67%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
2—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
45.56%———5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total11.11%50.00%16.67%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.67 +0.11
SD 1.26 1.28 1.64
CV 0.71 0.77 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
15.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%—38.89%
2——11.11%16.67%——27.78%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total16.67%11.11%27.78%27.78%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 2.17 -0.78
SD 1.24 1.34 1.52
CV 0.90 0.62 —
Max 5 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
1—11.11%————11.11%
211.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
416.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total44.44%33.33%5.56%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.67 1.00 +1.67
SD 1.33 1.24 1.94
CV 0.50 1.24 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Queens Island 1698 26 19.36 +6.64 100.0% 11 14 17 20 21 24 26
Linfield 1584 20 21.03 -1.03 45.0% 13 16 19 21 23 26 29
Glentoran 1583 19 18.78 +0.22 64.0% 13 14 16 19 20 23 27
Lisburn Distillery 1539 20 18.64 +1.36 76.0% 11 14 17 18 20 24 26
Barn 1476 16 16.82 -0.82 42.0% 8 11 15 17 19 21 22
Cliftonville 1462 18 17.57 +0.43 67.0% 10 12 16 17 20 24 25
Larne 1419 16 17.03 -1.03 46.0% 7 11 15 17 20 22 23
Ards 1419 14 16.57 -2.57 27.0% 7 11 14 17 19 21 27
Glenavon 1410 20 17.11 +2.89 88.0% 11 12 15 17 19 23 25
Newry Town 1410 9 15.09 -6.09 4.0% 8 10 12 15 17 21 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.67%
Strong Edge
50.00%26.67%23.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge
174 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
094.94500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.62 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.55+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.5
Wide Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
20%
Queens Island, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.33/gm
Runaway
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.51 * Some Luck: 2.51 to 3.77 * Lucky: 3.77 to 5.02 * Wild Swing: 5.02 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.89 * Close: 1.89 to 2.84 * Off: 2.84 to 3.78 * Way Off: 3.78 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.18 points
Some Luck
03.148
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.375
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
100.00%
Queens Island
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.00%
Newry Town
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 91.27
1.24
Coin-Flip Parity
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
67%
Even
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
84%
Even
50%85%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%59%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Rare
0%17%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.46
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.96
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.02
Weak Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.72
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.61
Overconfident
0.4901471.001.50985
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.084
Well Within Noise
00.1620.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Linfield 4
Glenavon 0
Lisburn Distillery 4
Linfield 3

Leg 1: Linfield 2-2 Lisburn Distillery

Leg 2: Lisburn Distillery 2-1 Linfield

Lisburn Distillery 3
Glenavon 1

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Queens Island20.00%22.00%10.00%16.00%5.00%6.00%5.00%9.00%6.00%1.00%
Linfield33.00%20.00%11.00%14.00%10.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%—2.00%
Lisburn Distillery8.00%12.00%21.00%9.00%10.00%14.00%11.00%5.00%8.00%2.00%
Glenavon6.00%5.00%9.00%5.00%14.00%16.00%6.00%16.00%14.00%9.00%
Glentoran10.00%14.00%12.00%17.00%14.00%10.00%10.00%8.00%3.00%2.00%
Cliftonville8.00%10.00%5.00%9.00%14.00%14.00%11.00%9.00%11.00%9.00%
Barn5.00%1.00%9.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%20.00%11.00%15.00%7.00%
Larne5.00%10.00%8.00%7.00%11.00%7.00%9.00%16.00%14.00%13.00%
Ards4.00%2.00%10.00%8.00%11.00%8.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%19.00%
Newry Town1.00%4.00%5.00%4.00%3.00%7.00%11.00%10.00%19.00%36.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level
Ards 100%
Barn 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Larne 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Newry Town 100%
Queens Island 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1923-08-25 Ards L 1-260.6 1499 1499 53.36% 27.91% 18.73%+0.55 -18.1 0
1923-08-25 @ Barn W 2-160.6 1499 1499 18.73% 27.91% 53.36%-0.55 +18.1 2
1923-08-25 Cliftonville W 3-250.8 1464 1435 56.11% 27.69% 16.19%+0.71 +6.7 2
1923-08-25 @ Glenavon L 2-350.8 1435 1464 16.19% 27.69% 56.11%-0.71 -6.7 0
1923-08-25 Glentoran L 1-266.7 1593 1543 57.92% 27.51% 14.57%+0.83 -19.6 0
1923-08-25 @ Linfield W 2-166.7 1543 1593 14.57% 27.51% 57.92%-0.83 +19.6 2
1923-08-25 Queens Island D 1-160.0 1502 1469 56.46% 27.66% 15.88%+0.73 -3.3 1
1923-08-25 @ Lisburn Distillery D 1-160.0 1469 1502 15.88% 27.66% 56.46%-0.73 +3.3 1
1923-08-25 Larne L 1-357.1 1499 1499 53.36% 27.91% 18.73%+0.55 -31.3 0
1923-08-25 @ Newry Town W 3-157.1 1499 1499 18.73% 27.91% 53.36%-0.55 +31.3 2
1923-09-01 Newry Town W 1-043.8 1517 1467 57.88% 27.51% 14.61%+0.83 +6.9 4
1923-09-01 @ Ards L 0-143.8 1467 1517 14.61% 27.51% 57.88%-0.83 -6.9 0
1923-09-01 Barn W 4-142.7 1428 1480 47.67% 28.15% 24.18%+0.24 +23.8 2
1923-09-01 @ Cliftonville L 1-442.7 1480 1428 24.18% 28.15% 47.67%-0.24 -23.8 0
1923-09-01 Lisburn Distillery L 1-264.6 1563 1499 59.08% 27.36% 13.56%+0.91 -20.0 2
1923-09-01 @ Glentoran W 2-164.6 1499 1563 13.56% 27.36% 59.08%-0.91 +20.0 3
1923-09-01 Glenavon D 3-370.4 1530 1470 58.72% 27.41% 13.87%+0.89 -2.3 3
1923-09-01 @ Larne D 3-370.4 1470 1530 13.87% 27.41% 58.72%-0.89 +2.3 3
1923-09-01 Linfield W 4-044.1 1472 1574 41.62% 28.21% 30.17%-0.04 +43.6 3
1923-09-01 @ Queens Island L 0-444.1 1574 1472 30.17% 28.21% 41.62%+0.04 -43.6 0
1923-09-08 Larne W 3-148.6 1457 1528 45.47% 28.19% 26.34%+0.14 +18.0 2
1923-09-08 @ Barn L 1-348.6 1528 1457 26.34% 28.19% 45.47%-0.14 -18.0 3
1923-09-08 Ards D 1-159.9 1452 1524 45.36% 28.20% 26.45%+0.13 -1.4 3
1923-09-08 @ Cliftonville D 1-159.9 1524 1452 26.45% 28.20% 45.36%-0.13 +1.4 5
1923-09-08 Newry Town D 0-054.8 1473 1460 54.56% 27.82% 17.62%+0.62 -3.3 4
1923-09-08 @ Glenavon D 0-054.8 1460 1473 17.62% 27.82% 54.56%-0.62 +3.3 1
1923-09-08 Queens Island L 0-352.6 1543 1516 55.91% 27.71% 16.38%+0.70 -54.9 2
1923-09-08 @ Glentoran W 3-052.6 1516 1543 16.38% 27.71% 55.91%-0.70 +54.9 5
1923-09-08 Linfield L 1-262.2 1519 1530 52.22% 27.97% 19.80%+0.48 -17.7 3
1923-09-08 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-162.2 1530 1519 19.80% 27.97% 52.22%-0.48 +17.7 2
1923-09-15 Glentoran W 2-149.3 1469 1488 51.46% 28.01% 20.53%+0.44 +8.6 6
1923-09-15 @ Glenavon L 1-249.3 1488 1469 20.53% 28.01% 51.46%-0.44 -8.6 2
1923-09-15 Lisburn Distillery W 4-358.7 1510 1501 54.21% 27.85% 17.95%+0.59 +7.1 5
1923-09-15 @ Larne L 3-458.7 1501 1510 17.95% 27.85% 54.21%-0.59 -7.1 3
1923-09-15 Ards W 2-043.8 1548 1525 55.53% 27.74% 16.72%+0.68 +14.5 4
1923-09-15 @ Linfield L 0-243.8 1525 1548 16.72% 27.74% 55.53%-0.68 -14.5 5
1923-09-15 Barn L 2-363.1 1464 1475 52.25% 27.97% 19.77%+0.48 -16.8 1
1923-09-15 @ Newry Town W 3-263.1 1475 1464 19.77% 27.97% 52.25%-0.48 +16.8 4
1923-09-15 Cliftonville D 0-058.4 1571 1450 63.18% 26.68% 10.14%+1.24 -5.1 6
1923-09-15 @ Queens Island D 0-058.4 1450 1571 10.14% 26.68% 63.18%-1.24 +5.1 4
1923-09-22 Glentoran L 1-261.2 1510 1479 56.30% 27.68% 16.03%+0.72 -19.0 5
1923-09-22 @ Ards W 2-161.2 1479 1510 16.03% 27.68% 56.30%-0.72 +19.0 4
1923-09-22 Glenavon W 2-040.2 1491 1478 54.68% 27.81% 17.51%+0.62 +15.1 6
1923-09-22 @ Barn L 0-240.2 1478 1491 17.51% 27.81% 54.68%-0.62 -15.1 6
1923-09-22 Linfield W 1-050.2 1455 1562 40.85% 28.21% 30.94%-0.07 +12.4 6
1923-09-22 @ Cliftonville L 0-150.2 1562 1455 30.94% 28.21% 40.85%+0.07 -12.4 4
1923-09-22 Newry Town W 3-251.8 1494 1447 57.68% 27.53% 14.79%+0.81 +6.2 5
1923-09-22 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-351.8 1447 1494 14.79% 27.53% 57.68%-0.81 -6.2 1
1923-09-22 Larne W 3-148.5 1566 1517 57.86% 27.51% 14.63%+0.83 +11.2 8
1923-09-22 @ Queens Island L 1-348.5 1517 1566 14.63% 27.51% 57.86%-0.83 -11.2 5
1923-10-06 Glenavon D 1-159.3 1491 1463 56.07% 27.70% 16.23%+0.71 -3.2 6
1923-10-06 @ Ards D 1-159.3 1463 1491 16.23% 27.70% 56.07%-0.71 +3.2 7
1923-10-06 Lisburn Distillery D 2-266.3 1507 1500 54.00% 27.86% 18.14%+0.58 -2.1 7
1923-10-06 @ Barn D 2-266.3 1500 1507 18.14% 27.86% 54.00%-0.58 +2.2 6
1923-10-06 Cliftonville L 0-155.7 1498 1468 56.25% 27.68% 16.07%+0.72 -20.2 4
1923-10-06 @ Glentoran W 1-055.7 1468 1498 16.07% 27.68% 56.25%-0.72 +20.2 8
1923-10-06 Larne W 4-145.1 1550 1505 57.45% 27.56% 14.99%+0.80 +16.2 6
1923-10-06 @ Linfield L 1-445.1 1505 1550 14.99% 27.56% 57.45%-0.80 -16.2 5
1923-10-06 Queens Island L 3-464.7 1441 1577 36.78% 28.15% 35.06%-0.24 -12.3 1
1923-10-06 @ Newry Town W 4-364.7 1577 1441 35.06% 28.15% 36.78%+0.24 +12.3 10
1923-10-13 Linfield D 1-162.1 1466 1566 41.77% 28.21% 30.02%-0.03 -0.9 8
1923-10-13 @ Glenavon D 1-162.1 1566 1466 30.02% 28.21% 41.77%+0.03 +0.9 7
1923-10-13 Newry Town D 2-262.8 1478 1428 57.91% 27.51% 14.58%+0.83 -2.7 5
1923-10-13 @ Glentoran D 2-262.8 1428 1478 14.58% 27.51% 57.91%-0.83 +2.7 2
1923-10-13 Cliftonville D 1-160.1 1489 1488 53.49% 27.90% 18.61%+0.55 -2.8 6
1923-10-13 @ Larne D 1-160.1 1488 1489 18.61% 27.90% 53.49%-0.55 +2.8 9
1923-10-13 Ards W 4-038.1 1502 1488 54.73% 27.81% 17.46%+0.63 +28.6 8
1923-10-13 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-438.1 1488 1502 17.46% 27.81% 54.73%-0.63 -28.6 6
1923-10-13 Barn W 4-040.0 1589 1504 60.69% 27.13% 12.18%+1.03 +21.0 12
1923-10-13 @ Queens Island L 0-440.0 1504 1589 12.18% 27.13% 60.69%-1.03 -21.0 7
1923-10-27 Queens Island L 1-257.8 1460 1610 34.75% 28.11% 37.14%-0.32 -12.7 6
1923-10-27 @ Ards W 2-157.8 1610 1460 37.14% 28.11% 34.75%+0.32 +12.7 14
1923-10-27 Newry Town D 0-054.5 1491 1431 58.73% 27.41% 13.86%+0.89 -4.2 10
1923-10-27 @ Cliftonville D 0-054.5 1431 1491 13.86% 27.41% 58.73%-0.89 +4.2 3
1923-10-27 Lisburn Distillery D 1-160.7 1465 1531 46.12% 28.18% 25.69%+0.17 -1.6 9
1923-10-27 @ Glenavon D 1-160.7 1531 1465 25.69% 28.18% 46.12%-0.17 +1.5 9
1923-10-27 Glentoran W 2-148.6 1486 1476 54.43% 27.83% 17.74%+0.61 +7.6 8
1923-10-27 @ Larne L 1-248.6 1476 1486 17.74% 27.83% 54.43%-0.61 -7.6 5
1923-10-27 Barn W 2-150.0 1567 1483 60.58% 27.15% 12.27%+1.02 +5.6 9
1923-10-27 @ Linfield L 1-250.0 1483 1567 12.27% 27.15% 60.58%-1.02 -5.6 7
1923-11-03 Larne W 2-041.1 1447 1494 48.30% 28.14% 23.57%+0.27 +19.1 8
1923-11-03 @ Ards L 0-241.1 1494 1447 23.57% 28.14% 48.30%-0.27 -19.1 8
1923-11-03 Glentoran W 2-148.0 1478 1468 54.33% 27.84% 17.83%+0.60 +7.7 9
1923-11-03 @ Barn L 1-248.0 1468 1478 17.83% 27.84% 54.33%-0.60 -7.7 5
1923-11-03 Cliftonville W 2-149.8 1532 1487 57.57% 27.55% 14.88%+0.81 +6.6 11
1923-11-03 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-249.8 1487 1532 14.88% 27.55% 57.57%-0.81 -6.6 10
1923-11-03 Linfield L 1-256.1 1435 1572 36.67% 28.15% 35.18%-0.24 -13.2 3
1923-11-03 @ Newry Town W 2-156.1 1572 1435 35.18% 28.15% 36.67%+0.24 +13.2 11
1923-11-03 Glenavon D 2-269.7 1623 1464 65.58% 26.10% 8.32%+1.46 -3.7 15
1923-11-03 @ Queens Island D 2-269.7 1464 1623 8.32% 26.10% 65.58%-1.46 +3.7 10
1923-11-17 Barn D 0-055.4 1466 1485 51.36% 28.02% 20.62%+0.43 -2.7 9
1923-11-17 @ Ards D 0-055.4 1485 1466 20.62% 28.02% 51.36%-0.43 +2.7 10
1923-11-17 Glenavon D 3-368.3 1480 1467 54.59% 27.82% 17.59%+0.62 -1.9 11
1923-11-17 @ Cliftonville D 3-368.3 1467 1480 17.59% 27.82% 54.59%-0.62 +1.8 11
1923-11-17 Linfield W 2-156.6 1460 1586 38.31% 28.18% 33.51%-0.18 +12.4 7
1923-11-17 @ Glentoran L 1-256.6 1586 1460 33.51% 28.18% 38.31%+0.18 -12.4 11
1923-11-17 Newry Town W 4-139.1 1475 1422 58.18% 27.48% 14.35%+0.85 +15.7 10
1923-11-17 @ Larne L 1-439.1 1422 1475 14.35% 27.48% 58.18%-0.85 -15.6 3
1923-11-17 Lisburn Distillery W 4-147.5 1619 1539 60.35% 27.18% 12.47%+1.01 +13.9 17
1923-11-17 @ Queens Island L 1-447.5 1539 1619 12.47% 27.18% 60.35%-1.01 -13.9 11
1923-11-24 Cliftonville L 0-155.1 1488 1478 54.34% 27.84% 17.82%+0.60 -19.5 10
1923-11-24 @ Barn W 1-055.1 1478 1488 17.82% 27.84% 54.34%-0.60 +19.5 13
1923-11-24 Larne D 0-055.7 1469 1491 51.16% 28.03% 20.81%+0.42 -2.7 12
1923-11-24 @ Glenavon D 0-055.7 1491 1469 20.81% 28.03% 51.16%-0.42 +2.7 11
1923-11-24 Queens Island W 3-263.7 1573 1633 46.80% 28.17% 25.03%+0.20 +9.5 13
1923-11-24 @ Linfield L 2-363.7 1633 1573 25.03% 28.17% 46.80%-0.20 -9.5 17
1923-11-24 Glentoran L 0-351.0 1525 1473 58.14% 27.48% 14.38%+0.85 -57.1 11
1923-11-24 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-051.0 1473 1525 14.38% 27.48% 58.14%-0.85 +57.1 9
1923-11-24 Ards D 1-156.3 1406 1463 47.17% 28.16% 24.67%+0.22 -1.7 4
1923-11-24 @ Newry Town D 1-156.3 1463 1406 24.67% 28.16% 47.17%-0.22 +1.7 10
1923-12-01 Cliftonville L 0-249.8 1465 1498 49.93% 28.08% 21.98%+0.36 -34.0 10
1923-12-01 @ Ards W 2-049.8 1498 1465 21.98% 28.08% 49.93%-0.36 +34.0 15
1923-12-01 Barn W 1-043.6 1493 1469 55.71% 27.73% 16.56%+0.69 +7.6 13
1923-12-01 @ Larne L 0-143.6 1469 1493 16.56% 27.73% 55.71%-0.69 -7.6 10
1923-12-01 Lisburn Distillery D 1-163.2 1583 1468 62.79% 26.76% 10.45%+1.20 -4.5 14
1923-12-01 @ Linfield D 1-163.2 1468 1583 10.45% 26.76% 62.79%-1.20 +4.5 12
1923-12-01 Glenavon D 2-261.5 1405 1467 46.57% 28.18% 25.26%+0.19 -1.2 5
1923-12-01 @ Newry Town D 2-261.5 1467 1405 25.26% 28.18% 46.57%-0.19 +1.2 13
1923-12-01 Glentoran W 3-149.6 1624 1530 61.35% 27.02% 11.63%+1.09 +9.2 19
1923-12-01 @ Queens Island L 1-349.6 1530 1624 11.63% 27.02% 61.35%-1.09 -9.2 9
1923-12-08 Linfield W 4-364.3 1431 1578 35.24% 28.12% 36.64%-0.30 +12.2 12
1923-12-08 @ Ards L 3-464.3 1578 1431 36.64% 28.12% 35.24%+0.30 -12.2 14
1923-12-08 Newry Town W 3-249.0 1461 1403 58.55% 27.43% 14.02%+0.88 +5.9 12
1923-12-08 @ Barn L 2-349.0 1403 1461 14.02% 27.43% 58.55%-0.88 -5.9 5
1923-12-08 Queens Island D 1-166.4 1532 1633 41.59% 28.21% 30.20%-0.04 -0.8 16
1923-12-08 @ Cliftonville D 1-166.4 1633 1532 30.20% 28.21% 41.59%+0.04 +0.8 20
1923-12-08 Glenavon W 4-037.0 1520 1468 58.16% 27.48% 14.36%+0.85 +24.3 11
1923-12-08 @ Glentoran L 0-437.0 1468 1520 14.36% 27.48% 58.16%-0.85 -24.3 13
1923-12-08 Larne W 3-146.7 1472 1501 50.40% 28.06% 21.54%+0.38 +15.4 14
1923-12-08 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-346.7 1501 1472 21.54% 28.06% 50.40%-0.38 -15.4 13
1923-12-15 Barn W 1-043.2 1444 1467 50.94% 28.04% 21.02%+0.41 +9.3 15
1923-12-15 @ Glenavon L 0-143.2 1467 1444 21.02% 28.04% 50.94%-0.41 -9.3 12
1923-12-15 Ards W 2-038.8 1545 1443 61.88% 26.93% 11.19%+1.13 +10.3 13
1923-12-15 @ Glentoran L 0-238.8 1443 1545 11.19% 26.93% 61.88%-1.13 -10.3 12
1923-12-15 Queens Island L 0-548.8 1486 1634 35.10% 28.12% 36.78%-0.31 -59.9 13
1923-12-15 @ Larne W 5-048.8 1634 1486 36.78% 28.12% 35.10%+0.31 +59.9 22
1923-12-15 Cliftonville W 2-044.3 1566 1531 56.66% 27.64% 15.70%+0.75 +13.8 16
1923-12-15 @ Linfield L 0-244.3 1531 1566 15.70% 27.64% 56.66%-0.75 -13.8 16
1923-12-15 Lisburn Distillery L 1-253.7 1398 1488 43.02% 28.21% 28.77%+0.03 -15.0 5
1923-12-15 @ Newry Town W 2-153.7 1488 1398 28.77% 28.21% 43.02%-0.03 +15.0 16
1923-12-22 Glentoran L 0-157.6 1517 1555 49.34% 28.10% 22.55%+0.33 -17.8 16
1923-12-22 @ Cliftonville W 1-057.6 1555 1517 22.55% 28.10% 49.34%-0.33 +17.8 15
1923-12-22 Ards W 2-145.7 1453 1433 55.27% 27.77% 16.96%+0.66 +7.3 17
1923-12-22 @ Glenavon L 1-245.7 1433 1453 16.96% 27.77% 55.27%-0.66 -7.4 12
1923-12-22 Linfield D 3-370.4 1426 1580 34.27% 28.09% 37.63%-0.34 +0.1 14
1923-12-22 @ Larne D 3-370.4 1580 1426 37.63% 28.09% 34.27%+0.34 -0.1 17
1923-12-22 Barn D 0-055.9 1503 1458 57.52% 27.55% 14.93%+0.80 -3.9 17
1923-12-22 @ Lisburn Distillery D 0-055.9 1458 1503 14.93% 27.55% 57.52%-0.80 +3.9 13
1923-12-22 Newry Town W 4-035.8 1694 1383 72.88% 23.23% 3.88%+2.33 +6.8 24
1923-12-22 @ Queens Island L 0-435.8 1383 1694 3.88% 23.23% 72.88%-2.33 -6.8 5
1923-12-25 Lisburn Distillery W 1-045.4 1426 1499 45.17% 28.20% 26.63%+0.12 +11.1 14
1923-12-25 @ Ards L 0-145.4 1499 1426 26.63% 28.20% 45.17%-0.12 -11.1 17
1923-12-25 Larne W 3-250.6 1499 1426 59.81% 27.26% 12.92%+0.97 +5.5 18
1923-12-25 @ Cliftonville L 2-350.6 1426 1499 12.92% 27.26% 59.81%-0.97 -5.5 14
1923-12-25 Glenavon L 1-264.8 1580 1460 63.11% 26.69% 10.20%+1.23 -21.3 17
1923-12-25 @ Linfield W 2-164.8 1460 1580 10.20% 26.69% 63.11%-1.23 +21.3 19
1923-12-25 Glentoran W 1-051.3 1376 1573 28.61% 27.86% 43.53%-0.59 +16.0 7
1923-12-25 @ Newry Town L 0-151.3 1573 1376 43.53% 27.86% 28.61%+0.59 -16.0 15
1923-12-26 Linfield D 0-057.9 1462 1558 42.19% 28.21% 29.60%-0.01 -1.0 14
1923-12-26 @ Barn D 0-057.9 1558 1462 29.60% 28.21% 42.19%+0.01 +1.0 18
1923-12-26 Larne W 5-139.0 1557 1420 64.20% 26.45% 9.35%+1.33 +13.8 17
1923-12-26 @ Glentoran L 1-539.0 1420 1557 9.35% 26.45% 64.20%-1.33 -13.8 14
1923-12-26 Glenavon D 4-471.4 1488 1481 53.99% 27.86% 18.15%+0.58 -1.6 18
1923-12-26 @ Lisburn Distillery D 4-471.4 1481 1488 18.15% 27.86% 53.99%-0.58 +1.6 20
1923-12-26 Cliftonville W 5-247.8 1392 1505 40.03% 28.20% 31.77%-0.10 +25.3 9
1923-12-26 @ Newry Town L 2-547.8 1505 1392 31.77% 28.20% 40.03%+0.10 -25.3 18
1923-12-26 Ards W 2-041.3 1700 1437 70.87% 24.22% 4.91%+2.06 +4.6 26
1923-12-26 @ Queens Island L 0-241.3 1437 1700 4.91% 24.22% 70.87%-2.06 -4.6 14
1923-12-29 Lisburn Distillery L 1-259.3 1479 1486 52.68% 27.95% 19.38%+0.51 -17.9 18
1923-12-29 @ Cliftonville W 2-159.3 1486 1479 19.38% 27.95% 52.68%-0.51 +17.9 20
1923-12-29 Queens Island L 0-249.8 1483 1705 25.61% 27.67% 46.73%-0.73 -20.2 20
1923-12-29 @ Glenavon W 2-049.8 1705 1483 46.73% 27.67% 25.61%+0.73 +20.2 28
1923-12-29 Barn W 4-142.7 1571 1461 62.47% 26.82% 10.71%+1.18 +12.1 19
1923-12-29 @ Glentoran L 1-442.7 1461 1571 10.71% 26.82% 62.47%-1.18 -12.1 14
1923-12-29 Ards W 5-348.8 1406 1432 50.71% 28.05% 21.25%+0.40 +12.9 16
1923-12-29 @ Larne L 3-548.8 1432 1406 21.25% 28.05% 50.71%-0.40 -12.9 14
1923-12-29 Newry Town W 3-142.6 1559 1417 64.56% 26.37% 9.08%+1.36 +7.3 20
1923-12-29 @ Linfield L 1-342.6 1417 1559 9.08% 26.37% 64.56%-1.36 -7.3 9
1924-01-19 Queens Island W 4-266.9 1448 1725 19.86% 27.11% 53.03%-1.04 +27.6 16
1924-01-19 @ Barn L 2-466.9 1725 1448 53.03% 27.11% 19.86%+1.04 -27.6 28

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1924-03-26 Glenavon W 4-041.2 1567 1463 49.42% 27.85% 22.73%+0.60 +35.1 1-0
1924-03-26 @ Linfield L 0-441.2 1463 1567 22.73% 27.85% 49.42%-0.60 -35.1 0-1
1924-04-02 Lisburn Distillery D 2-269.8 1602 1504 48.71% 27.89% 23.40%+0.56 -1.5 1-0-1
1924-04-02 @ Linfield D 2-269.8 1504 1602 23.40% 27.89% 48.71%-0.56 +1.5 0-0-1
1924-04-09 Glenavon W 3-146.5 1506 1428 46.33% 28.01% 25.66%+0.45 +17.6 1-0-1
1924-04-09 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-346.5 1428 1506 25.66% 28.01% 46.33%-0.45 -17.6 0-2
1924-04-23 Linfield W 2-163.0 1523 1600 25.74% 28.01% 46.25%-0.44 +15.9 2-0-1
1924-04-23 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-263.0 1600 1523 46.25% 28.01% 25.74%+0.44 -15.9 1-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1923-12-25 10.20% Glenavon 1460 2 @ Linfield 1580 1
2 1923-09-01 13.56% Lisburn Distillery 1499 2 @ Glentoran 1563 1
3 1923-11-24 14.38% Glentoran 1473 3 @ Lisburn Distillery 1525 0
4 1923-08-25 14.57% Glentoran 1543 2 @ Linfield 1593 1
5 1923-09-22 16.03% Glentoran 1479 2 @ Ards 1510 1
6 1923-10-06 16.07% Cliftonville 1468 1 @ Glentoran 1498 0
7 1923-09-08 16.38% Queens Island 1516 3 @ Glentoran 1543 0
8 1923-11-24 17.82% Cliftonville 1478 1 @ Barn 1488 0
9 1923-08-25 18.73% Ards 1499 2 @ Barn 1499 1
10 1923-08-25 18.73% Larne 1499 3 @ Newry Town 1499 1
11 1923-12-29 19.38% Lisburn Distillery 1486 2 @ Cliftonville 1479 1
12 1923-09-15 19.77% Barn 1475 3 @ Newry Town 1464 2
13 1923-09-08 19.80% Linfield 1530 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1519 1
14 1924-01-19 19.86% @ Barn 1448 4 Queens Island 1725 2
15 1923-12-01 21.98% Cliftonville 1498 2 @ Ards 1465 0
16 1923-12-22 22.55% Glentoran 1555 1 @ Cliftonville 1517 0
17 1924-04-23 * 25.74% @ Lisburn Distillery 1523 2 Linfield 1600 1
18 1923-12-25 28.61% @ Newry Town 1376 1 Glentoran 1573 0
19 1923-12-15 28.77% Lisburn Distillery 1488 2 @ Newry Town 1398 1
20 1923-10-06 35.06% Queens Island 1577 4 @ Newry Town 1441 3
21 1923-11-03 35.18% Linfield 1572 2 @ Newry Town 1435 1
22 1923-12-08 35.24% @ Ards 1431 4 Linfield 1578 3

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1923-12-15 59.89 Queens Island 5 1634 36.78% @ Larne 0 1486 35.10% 28.12%
2 1923-11-24 57.08 Glentoran 3 1473 14.38% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1525 58.14% 27.48%
3 1923-09-08 54.93 Queens Island 3 1516 16.38% @ Glentoran 0 1543 55.91% 27.71%
4 1923-09-01 43.58 @ Queens Island 4 1472 41.62% Linfield 0 1574 30.17% 28.21%
5 1924-03-26 * 35.07 @ Linfield 4 1567 49.42% Glenavon 0 1463 22.73% 27.85%
6 1923-12-01 34.02 Cliftonville 2 1498 21.98% @ Ards 0 1465 49.93% 28.08%
7 1923-08-25 31.32 Larne 3 1499 18.73% @ Newry Town 1 1499 53.36% 27.91%
8 1923-10-13 28.56 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1502 54.73% Ards 0 1488 17.46% 27.81%
9 1924-01-19 27.62 @ Barn 4 1448 19.86% Queens Island 2 1725 53.03% 27.11%
10 1923-12-26 25.30 @ Newry Town 5 1392 40.03% Cliftonville 2 1505 31.77% 28.20%
11 1923-12-08 24.26 @ Glentoran 4 1520 58.16% Glenavon 0 1468 14.36% 27.48%
12 1923-09-01 23.84 @ Cliftonville 4 1428 47.67% Barn 1 1480 24.18% 28.15%
13 1923-12-25 21.33 Glenavon 2 1460 10.20% @ Linfield 1 1580 63.11% 26.69%
14 1923-10-13 21.02 @ Queens Island 4 1589 60.69% Barn 0 1504 12.18% 27.13%
15 1923-12-29 20.19 Queens Island 2 1705 46.73% @ Glenavon 0 1483 25.61% 27.67%
16 1923-10-06 20.18 Cliftonville 1 1468 16.07% @ Glentoran 0 1498 56.25% 27.68%
17 1923-09-01 19.97 Lisburn Distillery 2 1499 13.56% @ Glentoran 1 1563 59.08% 27.36%
18 1923-08-25 19.58 Glentoran 2 1543 14.57% @ Linfield 1 1593 57.92% 27.51%
19 1923-11-24 19.52 Cliftonville 1 1478 17.82% @ Barn 0 1488 54.34% 27.84%
20 1923-11-03 19.09 @ Ards 2 1447 48.30% Larne 0 1494 23.57% 28.14%
21 1923-09-22 19.04 Glentoran 2 1479 16.03% @ Ards 1 1510 56.30% 27.68%
22 1923-08-25 18.09 Ards 2 1499 18.73% @ Barn 1 1499 53.36% 27.91%
23 1923-09-08 17.98 @ Barn 3 1457 45.47% Larne 1 1528 26.34% 28.19%
24 1923-12-29 17.87 Lisburn Distillery 2 1486 19.38% @ Cliftonville 1 1479 52.68% 27.95%
25 1923-12-22 17.84 Glentoran 1 1555 22.55% @ Cliftonville 0 1517 49.34% 28.10%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1923-12-26 71.4 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1488 53.99% Glenavon 4 1481 18.15% 27.86%
2 1923-09-01 70.4 @ Larne 3 1530 58.72% Glenavon 3 1470 13.87% 27.41%
3 1923-12-22 70.4 @ Larne 3 1426 34.27% Linfield 3 1580 37.63% 28.09%
4 1924-04-02 * 69.8 @ Linfield 2 1602 48.71% Lisburn Distillery 2 1504 23.40% 27.89%
5 1923-11-03 69.7 @ Queens Island 2 1623 65.58% Glenavon 2 1464 8.32% 26.10%
6 1923-11-17 68.3 @ Cliftonville 3 1480 54.59% Glenavon 3 1467 17.59% 27.82%
7 1924-01-19 66.9 @ Barn 4 1448 19.86% Queens Island 2 1725 53.03% 27.11%
8 1923-08-25 66.7 Glentoran 2 1543 14.57% @ Linfield 1 1593 57.92% 27.51%
9 1923-12-08 66.4 @ Cliftonville 1 1532 41.59% Queens Island 1 1633 30.20% 28.21%
10 1923-10-06 66.3 @ Barn 2 1507 54.00% Lisburn Distillery 2 1500 18.14% 27.86%
11 1923-12-25 64.8 Glenavon 2 1460 10.20% @ Linfield 1 1580 63.11% 26.69%
12 1923-10-06 64.7 Queens Island 4 1577 35.06% @ Newry Town 3 1441 36.78% 28.15%
13 1923-09-01 64.6 Lisburn Distillery 2 1499 13.56% @ Glentoran 1 1563 59.08% 27.36%
14 1923-12-08 64.3 @ Ards 4 1431 35.24% Linfield 3 1578 36.64% 28.12%
15 1923-11-24 63.7 @ Linfield 3 1573 46.80% Queens Island 2 1633 25.03% 28.17%
16 1923-12-01 63.2 @ Linfield 1 1583 62.79% Lisburn Distillery 1 1468 10.45% 26.76%
17 1923-09-15 63.1 Barn 3 1475 19.77% @ Newry Town 2 1464 52.25% 27.97%
18 1924-04-23 * 63.0 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1523 25.74% Linfield 1 1600 46.25% 28.01%
19 1923-10-13 62.8 @ Glentoran 2 1478 57.91% Newry Town 2 1428 14.58% 27.51%
20 1923-09-08 62.2 Linfield 2 1530 19.80% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1519 52.22% 27.97%
21 1923-10-13 62.1 @ Glenavon 1 1466 41.77% Linfield 1 1566 30.02% 28.21%
22 1923-12-01 61.5 @ Newry Town 2 1405 46.57% Glenavon 2 1467 25.26% 28.18%
23 1923-09-22 61.2 Glentoran 2 1479 16.03% @ Ards 1 1510 56.30% 27.68%
24 1923-10-27 60.7 @ Glenavon 1 1465 46.12% Lisburn Distillery 1 1531 25.69% 28.18%
25 1923-08-25 60.6 Ards 2 1499 18.73% @ Barn 1 1499 53.36% 27.91%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1923-12-22 35.8 @ Queens Island 4 1694 72.88% Newry Town 0 1383 3.88% 23.23%
2 1923-12-08 37.0 @ Glentoran 4 1520 58.16% Glenavon 0 1468 14.36% 27.48%
3 1923-10-13 38.1 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1502 54.73% Ards 0 1488 17.46% 27.81%
4 1923-12-15 38.8 @ Glentoran 2 1545 61.88% Ards 0 1443 11.19% 26.93%
5 1923-12-26 39.0 @ Glentoran 5 1557 64.20% Larne 1 1420 9.35% 26.45%
6 1923-11-17 39.1 @ Larne 4 1475 58.18% Newry Town 1 1422 14.35% 27.48%
7 1923-10-13 40.0 @ Queens Island 4 1589 60.69% Barn 0 1504 12.18% 27.13%
8 1923-09-22 40.2 @ Barn 2 1491 54.68% Glenavon 0 1478 17.51% 27.81%
9 1923-11-03 41.1 @ Ards 2 1447 48.30% Larne 0 1494 23.57% 28.14%
10 1924-03-26 * 41.2 @ Linfield 4 1567 49.42% Glenavon 0 1463 22.73% 27.85%
11 1923-12-26 41.3 @ Queens Island 2 1700 70.87% Ards 0 1437 4.91% 24.22%
12 1923-12-29 42.6 @ Linfield 3 1559 64.56% Newry Town 1 1417 9.08% 26.37%
13 1923-09-01 42.7 @ Cliftonville 4 1428 47.67% Barn 1 1480 24.18% 28.15%
14 1923-12-29 42.7 @ Glentoran 4 1571 62.47% Barn 1 1461 10.71% 26.82%
15 1923-12-15 43.2 @ Glenavon 1 1444 50.94% Barn 0 1467 21.02% 28.04%
16 1923-12-01 43.6 @ Larne 1 1493 55.71% Barn 0 1469 16.56% 27.73%
17 1923-09-01 43.8 @ Ards 1 1517 57.88% Newry Town 0 1467 14.61% 27.51%
18 1923-09-15 43.8 @ Linfield 2 1548 55.53% Ards 0 1525 16.72% 27.74%
19 1923-09-01 44.1 @ Queens Island 4 1472 41.62% Linfield 0 1574 30.17% 28.21%
20 1923-12-15 44.3 @ Linfield 2 1566 56.66% Cliftonville 0 1531 15.70% 27.64%
21 1923-10-06 45.1 @ Linfield 4 1550 57.45% Larne 1 1505 14.99% 27.56%
22 1923-12-25 45.4 @ Ards 1 1426 45.17% Lisburn Distillery 0 1499 26.63% 28.20%
23 1923-12-22 45.7 @ Glenavon 2 1453 55.27% Ards 1 1433 16.96% 27.77%
24 1924-04-09 * 46.5 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1506 46.33% Glenavon 1 1428 25.66% 28.01%
25 1923-12-08 46.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1472 50.40% Larne 1 1501 21.54% 28.06%