1925-26 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Belfast Celtic

33 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Belfast Celtic

8.11 points above expected

33 points · 24.89 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Barn

7.93 points below expected

6 points · 13.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Belfast Celtic	22	16	1	5	33	52	38	+14	24.89	+8.11
2	Glentoran	22	13	4	5	30	53	31	+22	29.50	+0.50
3	Larne	22	11	5	6	27	45	33	+12	21.51	+5.49
4	Ards	22	11	4	7	26	56	42	+14	23.18	+2.82
5	Lisburn Distillery	22	10	5	7	25	37	35	+2	21.94	+3.06
6	Queens Island	22	9	5	8	23	42	37	+5	27.13	-4.13
7	Glenavon	22	10	3	9	23	36	37	-1	23.96	-0.96
8	Portadown	22	7	7	8	21	43	41	+2	23.36	-2.36
9	Linfield	22	8	5	9	21	47	46	+1	22.22	-1.22
10	Newry Town	22	5	5	12	15	33	53	-20	14.82	+0.18
11	Cliftonville	22	4	6	12	14	29	39	-10	17.56	-3.56
12	Barn	22	2	2	18	6	25	66	-41	13.93	-7.93

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Belfast Celtic	33	24.89	+8.11
2	Larne	27	21.51	+5.49
3	Lisburn Distillery	25	21.94	+3.06
4	Ards	26	23.18	+2.82
5	Glentoran	30	29.50	+0.50

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Barn	6	13.93	-7.93
2	Queens Island	23	27.13	-4.13
3	Cliftonville	14	17.56	-3.56
4	Portadown	21	23.36	-2.36
5	Linfield	21	22.22	-1.22

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Belfast Celtic	6	Dec 26 – Mar 3	1 in 247
2	Lisburn Distillery	5	Aug 22 – Sep 19	1 in 132
3	Cliftonville	2	Oct 31 – Nov 7	1 in 34
4	Glenavon	4	Aug 22 – Sep 12	1 in 25
5	Ards	4	Jan 23 – Feb 27	1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Queens Island	4	Jan 9 – Feb 6	1 in 200
2	Portadown	4	Oct 31 – Nov 21	1 in 132
3	Glenavon	3	Oct 31 – Nov 14	1 in 72
4	Cliftonville	6	Sep 5 – Oct 10	1 in 60
5	Lisburn Distillery	3	Nov 14 – Dec 5	1 in 25

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cliftonville	5	Dec 5 – Jan 9	1 in 75
2	Lisburn Distillery	9	Aug 22 – Oct 17	1 in 70
3	Larne	8	Oct 31 – Dec 26	1 in 42
4	Portadown	7	Sep 5 – Oct 17	1 in 22
5	Glenavon	6	Aug 22 – Sep 26	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lisburn Distillery	8	Oct 31 – Dec 26	1 in 96
2	Portadown	5	Dec 19 – Jan 9	1 in 38
3	Ards	5	Aug 29 – Sep 26	1 in 28
4	Cliftonville	9	Aug 22 – Oct 17	1 in 25
5	Queens Island	4	Jan 9 – Feb 6	1 in 17

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Belfast Celtic	1615	33	+55	10	6.3	+3.7
Glentoran	1669	30	-15	6	7.0	-1.0
Larne	1572	27	+16	6	5.7	+0.3
Ards	1608	26	+76	9	6.1	+2.9
Lisburn Distillery	1490	25	+38	7	4.1	+2.9
Glenavon	1476	23	-14	6	5.1	+0.9
Queens Island	1539	23	-86	2	6.3	-4.3
Linfield	1500	21	+8	6	5.1	+0.9
Portadown	1533	21	+8	4	4.7	-0.7
Newry Town	1349	15	-31	1	2.9	-1.9
Cliftonville	1416	14	-23	3	4.5	-1.5
Barn	1233	6	-32	0	2.2	-2.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ARD	BAR	BC	CLI	GLE	GLE	LAR	LIN	LD	NT	POR	QI
Ards	—	2-0-0 4.31	0-0-2 2.72	1-1-0 3.54	2-0-0 2.40	1-0-1 2.00	0-0-2 2.90	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 3.76	0-2-0 2.84	2-0-0 2.00
Barn	0-0-2 1.29	—	0-0-2 1.96	0-0-2 1.96	0-0-2 1.35	0-0-2 1.12	1-0-1 1.82	0-0-2 1.57	1-0-1 1.73	0-1-1 2.65	0-1-1 1.50	0-0-2 1.19
Belfast Celtic	2-0-0 2.87	2-0-0 3.64	—	1-0-1 4.02	1-0-1 2.79	2-0-0 2.18	1-0-1 3.07	2-0-0 3.17	1-1-0 3.04	2-0-0 4.19	1-0-1 3.12	1-0-1 2.66
Cliftonville	0-1-1 2.04	2-0-0 3.63	1-0-1 1.58	—	1-0-1 2.10	0-0-2 1.29	0-1-1 2.13	0-1-1 1.93	0-1-1 2.22	0-0-2 3.19	0-1-1 2.05	0-1-1 1.74
Glenavon	0-0-2 3.18	2-0-0 4.25	1-0-1 2.80	1-0-1 3.50	—	1-0-1 1.50	0-2-0 3.08	0-0-2 3.08	1-1-0 3.08	1-0-1 3.92	2-0-0 2.65	1-0-1 2.41
Glentoran	1-0-1 3.59	2-0-0 4.50	0-0-2 3.41	2-0-0 4.31	1-0-1 4.09	—	1-1-0 3.88	2-0-0 3.90	1-0-1 3.87	2-0-0 4.54	1-1-0 3.54	0-2-0 3.20
Larne	2-0-0 2.68	1-0-1 3.78	1-0-1 2.51	1-1-0 3.45	0-2-0 2.50	0-1-1 1.71	—	1-1-0 2.60	1-0-1 2.77	2-0-0 3.91	1-0-1 2.74	1-0-1 2.27
Linfield	1-0-1 2.61	2-0-0 4.02	0-0-2 2.42	1-1-0 3.66	2-0-0 2.51	0-0-2 1.70	0-1-1 2.98	—	1-0-1 2.68	1-1-0 3.54	0-1-1 2.77	0-1-1 2.01
Lisburn Distillery	1-0-1 2.60	1-0-1 3.86	0-1-1 2.55	1-1-0 3.37	0-1-1 2.51	1-0-1 1.72	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.91	—	1-1-0 3.61	1-1-0 2.54	2-0-0 2.19
Newry Town	0-1-1 1.83	1-1-0 2.94	0-0-2 1.41	2-0-0 2.39	1-0-1 1.67	0-0-2 1.07	0-0-2 1.69	0-1-1 2.05	0-1-1 1.99	—	1-0-1 1.49	0-1-1 1.33
Portadown	0-2-0 2.75	1-1-0 4.09	1-0-1 2.46	1-1-0 3.54	0-0-2 2.94	0-1-1 2.05	1-0-1 2.85	1-1-0 2.81	0-1-1 3.05	1-0-1 4.10	—	1-0-1 2.44
Queens Island	0-0-2 3.59	2-0-0 4.41	1-0-1 2.93	1-1-0 3.85	1-0-1 3.18	0-2-0 2.38	1-0-1 3.32	1-1-0 3.58	0-0-2 3.40	1-1-0 4.27	1-0-1 3.14	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.73	+6.5
Allowed	0.67	-6.2
Differential	0.90	+4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.27%	3.41%	5.68%	1.89%	0.38%	0.76%	14.39%
1	3.41%	5.30%	8.71%	4.92%	3.79%	1.89%	28.03%
2	5.68%	8.71%	8.33%	4.55%	1.52%	1.14%	29.92%
3	1.89%	4.92%	4.55%	3.03%	0.76%	0.76%	15.91%
4	0.38%	3.79%	1.52%	0.76%	0.76%	—	7.20%
5+	0.76%	1.89%	1.14%	0.76%	—	—	4.55%
Total	14.39%	28.03%	29.92%	15.91%	7.20%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.89	+0.00
SD	1.35	1.35	2.00
CV	0.71	0.71	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
Total	9.09%	31.82%	27.27%	22.73%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.55	1.91	+0.64
SD	1.71	1.15	2.08
CV	0.67	0.60	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	18.18%	4.55%	—	4.55%	27.27%
1	—	4.55%	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	9.09%	45.45%
2	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	13.64%	27.27%	27.27%	18.18%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	3.00	-1.86
SD	1.04	1.45	1.70
CV	0.91	0.48	—
Max	4	6	+1
Min	0	1	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	—	—	—	9.09%	—	—	9.09%
2	13.64%	22.73%	—	—	—	4.55%	40.91%
3	—	—	13.64%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	18.18%	31.82%	22.73%	22.73%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.36	1.73	+0.64
SD	1.53	1.42	1.94
CV	0.65	0.82	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	—	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
2	—	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	27.27%	40.91%	22.73%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.77	-0.45
SD	1.13	0.92	1.50
CV	0.86	0.52	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	36.36%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	36.36%	18.18%	13.64%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.68	-0.05
SD	1.09	1.32	1.89
CV	0.67	0.79	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	4.55%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
3	—	—	13.64%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	13.64%	36.36%	45.45%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.41	1.41	+1.00
SD	1.44	0.80	1.80
CV	0.60	0.57	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	1	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	31.82%
3	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	13.64%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	36.36%	22.73%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	1.50	+0.55
SD	1.25	1.34	2.11
CV	0.61	0.89	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
2	—	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
3	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	22.73%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	9.09%	36.36%	22.73%	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	2.09	+0.05
SD	1.55	1.57	2.44
CV	0.73	0.75	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	31.82%	36.36%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.68	1.59	+0.09
SD	1.04	1.26	1.54
CV	0.62	0.79	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	22.73%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	9.09%	31.82%
2	—	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	22.73%	27.27%	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	2.41	-0.91
SD	1.19	1.56	1.82
CV	0.79	0.65	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	—	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	36.36%
3	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	13.64%	27.27%	27.27%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	1.86	+0.09
SD	1.17	1.32	1.85
CV	0.60	0.71	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	13.64%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	9.09%	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	45.45%
3	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	18.18%	40.91%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.68	+0.23
SD	1.31	1.32	1.88
CV	0.68	0.79	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Glentoran	1669	30	29.50	+0.50	62.0%	20	22	28	29	32	36	38
Belfast Celtic	1615	33	24.89	+8.11	98.0%	15	19	22	25	28	31	34
Ards	1608	26	23.18	+2.82	79.0%	15	17	20	23	26	30	32
Larne	1572	27	21.51	+5.49	95.0%	14	15	19	21	24	27	31
Queens Island	1539	23	27.13	-4.13	17.0%	20	22	24	28	30	32	34
Portadown	1533	21	23.36	-2.36	30.0%	15	17	21	23	26	31	36
Linfield	1500	21	22.22	-1.22	47.0%	10	15	20	22	25	29	33
Lisburn Distillery	1490	25	21.94	+3.06	81.0%	14	16	19	22	24	28	30
Glenavon	1476	23	23.96	-0.96	45.0%	11	17	22	24	26	30	34
Cliftonville	1416	14	17.56	-3.56	22.0%	9	10	15	18	20	24	27
Newry Town	1349	15	14.82	+0.18	57.0%	8	9	12	15	17	20	24
Barn	1233	6	13.93	-7.93	2.0%	3	9	11	14	16	20	24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+21.21%

Strong Edge

50.76%19.70%29.55%

Elo Value

Home Edge

179 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

074.83500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.59 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.42+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.3

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

Belfast Celtic, 3rd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.14/gm

Tight Race

00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.05 * Some Luck: 3.05 to 4.58 * Lucky: 4.58 to 6.1 * Wild Swing: 6.1 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.51 * Close: 1.51 to 2.27 * Off: 2.27 to 3.02 * Way Off: 3.02 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.22 points

Some Luck

03.8110

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.33

Off

01.894

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.00%

Belfast Celtic

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

2.00%

Barn

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.18

Balanced

00.190.250.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 121.87

1.77

Coin-Flip Parity

11.852.253

Interquartile Edge

67%

Even

50%70%81%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

93%

Clear Edge

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

55%

Frequent

0%55%100%

Blowouts

Expected

20%

Occasional

0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.57

Predictable

00.572

Matchup Imbalance

0.42

Slight Separation

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.29

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.41

Weak Carryover

00.470.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

25%

Very Upset-Prone

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

25%

Very Shaky

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.68

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.85

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.084

Well Within Noise

00.1330.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Belfast Celtic	9.00%	21.00%	10.00%	13.00%	9.00%	10.00%	13.00%	9.00%	3.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—
Glentoran	51.00%	22.00%	8.00%	8.00%	3.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Larne	1.00%	3.00%	5.00%	17.00%	11.00%	8.00%	12.00%	14.00%	12.00%	13.00%	4.00%	—
Ards	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	18.00%	9.00%	11.00%	8.00%	12.00%	13.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—
Lisburn Distillery	3.00%	4.00%	7.00%	5.00%	14.00%	15.00%	13.00%	17.00%	9.00%	9.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Queens Island	15.00%	26.00%	25.00%	6.00%	14.00%	9.00%	4.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Glenavon	5.00%	7.00%	10.00%	18.00%	17.00%	7.00%	15.00%	6.00%	7.00%	4.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Portadown	6.00%	4.00%	15.00%	7.00%	9.00%	15.00%	15.00%	12.00%	9.00%	7.00%	1.00%	—
Linfield	2.00%	5.00%	9.00%	6.00%	11.00%	14.00%	9.00%	16.00%	14.00%	9.00%	5.00%	—
Newry Town	—	—	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—	8.00%	17.00%	39.00%	30.00%
Cliftonville	—	—	4.00%	2.00%	1.00%	6.00%	6.00%	10.00%	16.00%	24.00%	17.00%	14.00%
Barn	—	—	—	—	1.00%	—	1.00%	1.00%	7.00%	10.00%	26.00%	54.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Ards	100%
Barn	100%
Belfast Celtic	100%
Cliftonville	100%
Glenavon	100%
Glentoran	100%
Larne	100%
Linfield	100%
Lisburn Distillery	100%
Newry Town	100%
Portadown	100%
Queens Island	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1925-08-22	Glenavon	L 0-1	55.5	1516	1527	52.83%	20.83%	26.34%	+0.35	-17.5	0
1925-08-22	@ Belfast Celtic	W 1-0	55.5	1527	1516	26.34%	20.83%	52.83%	-0.35	+17.5	2
1925-08-22	Linfield	W 3-0	40.1	1443	1517	44.93%	20.89%	34.18%	+0.01	+33.2	2
1925-08-22	@ Larne	L 0-3	40.1	1517	1443	34.18%	20.89%	44.93%	-0.01	-33.2	0
1925-08-22	Barn	W 2-1	45.2	1458	1432	57.13%	20.74%	22.13%	+0.57	+8.0	2
1925-08-22	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 1-2	45.2	1432	1458	22.13%	20.74%	57.13%	-0.57	-8.0	0
1925-08-22	Cliftonville	W 1-0	42.7	1395	1455	46.89%	20.88%	32.23%	+0.09	+11.6	2
1925-08-22	@ Newry Town	L 0-1	42.7	1455	1395	32.23%	20.88%	46.89%	-0.09	-11.6	0
1925-08-22	Glentoran	D 2-2	72.7	1522	1624	41.11%	20.88%	38.02%	-0.15	-0.2	1
1925-08-22	@ Portadown	D 2-2	72.7	1624	1522	38.02%	20.88%	41.11%	+0.15	+0.2	1
1925-08-22	Ards	L 3-5	70.2	1612	1499	65.04%	20.39%	14.57%	+1.05	-29.6	0
1925-08-22	@ Queens Island	W 5-3	70.2	1499	1612	14.57%	20.39%	65.04%	-1.05	+29.6	2
1925-08-29	Lisburn Distillery	L 1-2	60.4	1529	1466	60.68%	20.62%	18.70%	+0.76	-18.8	2
1925-08-29	@ Ards	W 2-1	60.4	1466	1529	18.70%	20.62%	60.68%	-0.76	+18.8	4
1925-08-29	Belfast Celtic	L 0-2	44.7	1424	1498	44.83%	20.89%	34.28%	+0.00	-28.5	0
1925-08-29	@ Barn	W 2-0	44.7	1498	1424	34.28%	20.89%	44.83%	+0.00	+28.5	2
1925-08-29	Queens Island	D 2-2	68.7	1443	1583	35.67%	20.83%	43.50%	-0.36	+0.4	1
1925-08-29	@ Cliftonville	D 2-2	68.7	1583	1443	43.50%	20.83%	35.67%	+0.36	-0.4	1
1925-08-29	Portadown	W 4-1	45.9	1545	1522	56.71%	20.75%	22.53%	+0.54	+19.8	4
1925-08-29	@ Glenavon	L 1-4	45.9	1522	1545	22.53%	20.75%	56.71%	-0.54	-19.8	1
1925-08-29	Larne	W 2-1	49.5	1624	1476	67.53%	20.20%	12.27%	+1.24	+4.7	3
1925-08-29	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	49.5	1476	1624	12.27%	20.20%	67.53%	-1.24	-4.7	2
1925-08-29	Newry Town	W 5-0	32.6	1484	1407	62.00%	20.57%	17.44%	+0.85	+30.3	2
1925-08-29	@ Linfield	L 0-5	32.6	1407	1484	17.44%	20.57%	62.00%	-0.85	-30.3	2
1925-09-05	Ards	W 2-0	42.4	1527	1510	56.07%	20.77%	23.16%	+0.51	+16.6	4
1925-09-05	@ Belfast Celtic	L 0-2	42.4	1510	1527	23.16%	20.77%	56.07%	-0.51	-16.6	2
1925-09-05	Cliftonville	W 3-0	34.8	1472	1443	57.29%	20.74%	21.98%	+0.57	+23.0	4
1925-09-05	@ Larne	L 0-3	34.8	1443	1472	21.98%	20.74%	57.29%	-0.57	-23.0	1
1925-09-05	Glentoran	W 2-1	59.7	1485	1629	35.19%	20.82%	43.99%	-0.38	+14.0	6
1925-09-05	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 1-2	59.7	1629	1485	43.99%	20.82%	35.19%	+0.38	-14.0	3
1925-09-05	Glenavon	L 0-2	40.7	1377	1565	29.38%	20.71%	49.92%	-0.63	-20.2	2
1925-09-05	@ Newry Town	W 2-0	40.7	1565	1377	49.92%	20.71%	29.38%	+0.63	+20.2	6
1925-09-05	Linfield	D 3-3	73.2	1502	1514	52.83%	20.83%	26.34%	+0.35	-1.2	2
1925-09-05	@ Portadown	D 3-3	73.2	1514	1502	26.34%	20.83%	52.83%	-0.35	+1.2	3
1925-09-05	Barn	W 3-0	33.2	1582	1395	70.05%	19.95%	10.00%	+1.46	+11.3	3
1925-09-05	@ Queens Island	L 0-3	33.2	1395	1582	10.00%	19.95%	70.05%	-1.46	-11.3	0
1925-09-12	Portadown	D 3-3	72.4	1493	1501	53.30%	20.82%	25.87%	+0.37	-1.3	3
1925-09-12	@ Ards	D 3-3	72.4	1501	1493	25.87%	20.82%	53.30%	-0.37	+1.3	3
1925-09-12	Larne	W 2-1	50.0	1384	1495	39.77%	20.87%	39.36%	-0.20	+12.8	2
1925-09-12	@ Barn	L 1-2	50.0	1495	1384	39.36%	20.87%	39.77%	+0.20	-12.8	4
1925-09-12	Lisburn Distillery	L 1-3	49.6	1420	1499	44.27%	20.89%	34.84%	-0.02	-24.4	1
1925-09-12	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	49.6	1499	1420	34.84%	20.89%	44.27%	+0.02	+24.4	8
1925-09-12	Queens Island	W 3-1	52.9	1585	1594	53.16%	20.83%	26.01%	+0.37	+15.8	8
1925-09-12	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	52.9	1594	1585	26.01%	20.83%	53.16%	-0.37	-15.8	3
1925-09-12	Newry Town	W 5-1	36.0	1615	1356	73.68%	19.40%	6.92%	+1.86	+8.6	5
1925-09-12	@ Glentoran	L 1-5	36.0	1356	1615	6.92%	19.40%	73.68%	-1.86	-8.6	2
1925-09-12	Belfast Celtic	L 2-4	61.6	1515	1543	50.87%	20.86%	28.27%	+0.26	-24.7	3
1925-09-12	@ Linfield	W 4-2	61.6	1543	1515	28.27%	20.86%	50.87%	-0.26	+24.6	6
1925-09-19	Cliftonville	W 3-2	49.5	1568	1396	69.12%	20.05%	10.83%	+1.38	+4.0	8
1925-09-19	@ Belfast Celtic	L 2-3	49.5	1396	1568	10.83%	20.05%	69.12%	-1.38	-4.0	1
1925-09-19	Glenavon	D 3-3	75.6	1482	1601	38.62%	20.86%	40.52%	-0.25	+0.1	5
1925-09-19	@ Larne	D 3-3	75.6	1601	1482	40.52%	20.86%	38.62%	+0.25	-0.1	9
1925-09-19	Linfield	W 4-1	43.7	1523	1491	57.77%	20.72%	21.50%	+0.60	+19.0	10
1925-09-19	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 1-4	43.7	1491	1523	21.50%	20.72%	57.77%	-0.60	-19.0	3
1925-09-19	Ards	D 3-3	67.2	1348	1492	35.09%	20.82%	44.09%	-0.39	+0.4	3
1925-09-19	@ Newry Town	D 3-3	67.2	1492	1348	44.09%	20.82%	35.09%	+0.39	-0.4	4
1925-09-19	Barn	W 4-2	44.9	1502	1397	64.43%	20.43%	15.14%	+1.01	+8.8	5
1925-09-19	@ Portadown	L 2-4	44.9	1397	1502	15.14%	20.43%	64.43%	-1.01	-8.8	2
1925-09-19	Glentoran	D 1-1	68.9	1578	1623	48.72%	20.87%	30.41%	+0.17	-1.3	4
1925-09-19	@ Queens Island	D 1-1	68.9	1623	1578	30.41%	20.87%	48.72%	-0.17	+1.3	6
1925-09-26	Larne	L 1-3	54.8	1492	1482	55.29%	20.79%	23.93%	+0.47	-29.8	4
1925-09-26	@ Ards	W 3-1	54.8	1482	1492	23.93%	20.79%	55.29%	-0.47	+29.8	7
1925-09-26	Newry Town	D 4-4	67.8	1388	1348	58.46%	20.70%	20.84%	+0.64	-1.6	3
1925-09-26	@ Barn	D 4-4	67.8	1348	1388	20.84%	20.70%	58.46%	-0.64	+1.6	4
1925-09-26	Glentoran	W 2-1	58.1	1572	1624	47.76%	20.88%	31.36%	+0.12	+10.7	10
1925-09-26	@ Belfast Celtic	L 1-2	58.1	1624	1572	31.36%	20.88%	47.76%	-0.12	-10.7	6
1925-09-26	Portadown	L 0-2	42.2	1392	1511	38.58%	20.86%	40.56%	-0.25	-25.2	1
1925-09-26	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	42.2	1511	1392	40.56%	20.86%	38.58%	+0.25	+25.2	7
1925-09-26	Queens Island	L 1-2	56.4	1472	1577	40.59%	20.87%	38.54%	-0.17	-13.1	3
1925-09-26	@ Linfield	W 2-1	56.4	1577	1472	38.54%	20.87%	40.59%	+0.17	+13.1	6
1925-09-26	Glenavon	D 1-1	67.4	1543	1601	47.04%	20.88%	32.08%	+0.09	-1.1	11
1925-09-26	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	67.4	1601	1543	32.08%	20.88%	47.04%	-0.09	+1.1	10
1925-10-03	Glenavon	W 3-1	54.6	1462	1602	35.68%	20.83%	43.49%	-0.36	+24.0	6
1925-10-03	@ Ards	L 1-3	54.6	1602	1462	43.49%	20.83%	35.68%	+0.36	-24.0	10
1925-10-03	Cliftonville	W 2-1	43.5	1614	1367	73.17%	19.49%	7.34%	+1.79	+2.9	8
1925-10-03	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	43.5	1367	1614	7.34%	19.49%	73.17%	-1.79	-2.9	1
1925-10-03	Belfast Celtic	W 3-1	52.8	1512	1583	45.34%	20.89%	33.78%	+0.02	+19.6	9
1925-10-03	@ Larne	L 1-3	52.8	1583	1512	33.78%	20.89%	45.34%	-0.02	-19.6	10
1925-10-03	Barn	W 6-1	35.2	1458	1386	61.58%	20.58%	17.83%	+0.82	+25.6	5
1925-10-03	@ Linfield	L 1-6	35.2	1386	1458	17.83%	20.58%	61.58%	-0.82	-25.6	3
1925-10-03	Queens Island	D 2-2	65.6	1350	1590	23.42%	20.51%	56.08%	-0.92	+1.8	5
1925-10-03	@ Newry Town	D 2-2	65.6	1590	1350	56.08%	20.51%	23.42%	+0.92	-1.8	7
1925-10-03	Lisburn Distillery	D 2-2	70.6	1536	1541	53.61%	20.82%	25.58%	+0.39	-1.6	8
1925-10-03	@ Portadown	D 2-2	70.6	1541	1536	25.58%	20.82%	53.61%	-0.39	+1.6	12
1925-10-10	Glentoran	L 0-6	38.1	1361	1617	21.76%	20.43%	57.81%	-1.01	-43.4	3
1925-10-10	@ Barn	W 6-0	38.1	1617	1361	57.81%	20.43%	21.76%	+1.01	+43.4	10
1925-10-10	Portadown	L 1-3	59.9	1563	1535	57.28%	20.74%	21.98%	+0.57	-30.8	10
1925-10-10	@ Belfast Celtic	W 3-1	59.9	1535	1563	21.98%	20.74%	57.28%	-0.57	+30.8	10
1925-10-10	Ards	L 0-2	40.4	1364	1486	38.19%	20.86%	40.96%	-0.26	-25.0	1
1925-10-10	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	40.4	1486	1364	40.96%	20.86%	38.19%	+0.26	+25.0	8
1925-10-10	Linfield	L 2-3	69.1	1578	1484	63.45%	20.49%	16.06%	+0.94	-18.7	10
1925-10-10	@ Glenavon	W 3-2	69.1	1484	1578	16.06%	20.49%	63.45%	-0.94	+18.7	7
1925-10-10	Newry Town	W 3-2	46.8	1543	1352	70.28%	19.92%	9.80%	+1.48	+3.6	14
1925-10-10	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 2-3	46.8	1352	1543	9.80%	19.92%	70.28%	-1.48	-3.6	5
1925-10-10	Larne	W 3-0	41.2	1588	1531	60.13%	20.65%	19.22%	+0.73	+20.5	9
1925-10-10	@ Queens Island	L 0-3	41.2	1531	1588	19.22%	20.65%	60.13%	-0.73	-20.5	9
1925-10-17	Glenavon	L 0-2	36.6	1317	1559	23.23%	20.50%	56.27%	-0.93	-16.5	3
1925-10-17	@ Barn	W 2-0	36.6	1559	1317	56.27%	20.50%	23.23%	+0.93	+16.5	12
1925-10-17	Newry Town	W 4-3	50.3	1532	1348	69.86%	19.97%	10.17%	+1.44	+3.7	12
1925-10-17	@ Belfast Celtic	L 3-4	50.3	1348	1532	10.17%	19.97%	69.86%	-1.44	-3.7	5
1925-10-17	Linfield	D 2-2	62.4	1339	1503	32.48%	20.78%	46.75%	-0.50	+0.8	2
1925-10-17	@ Cliftonville	D 2-2	62.4	1503	1339	46.75%	20.78%	32.48%	+0.50	-0.8	8
1925-10-17	Ards	W 4-2	53.2	1660	1511	67.65%	20.19%	12.16%	+1.25	+7.2	12
1925-10-17	@ Glentoran	L 2-4	53.2	1511	1660	12.16%	20.19%	67.65%	-1.25	-7.2	8
1925-10-17	Queens Island	W 2-0	49.1	1547	1608	46.55%	20.88%	32.56%	+0.07	+22.0	16
1925-10-17	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 0-2	49.1	1608	1547	32.56%	20.88%	46.55%	-0.07	-22.0	9
1925-10-17	Larne	W 4-0	39.1	1566	1511	59.95%	20.65%	19.40%	+0.72	+27.0	12
1925-10-17	@ Portadown	L 0-4	39.1	1511	1566	19.40%	20.65%	59.95%	-0.72	-27.0	9
1925-10-31	Barn	W 3-1	35.5	1504	1301	70.93%	19.83%	9.23%	+1.55	+6.2	10
1925-10-31	@ Ards	L 1-3	35.5	1301	1504	9.23%	19.83%	70.93%	-1.55	-6.2	3
1925-10-31	Cliftonville	L 1-4	55.1	1576	1340	72.64%	19.58%	7.78%	+1.73	-55.5	12
1925-10-31	@ Glenavon	W 4-1	55.1	1340	1576	7.78%	19.58%	72.64%	-1.73	+55.5	4
1925-10-31	Lisburn Distillery	W 4-1	49.4	1484	1569	43.43%	20.89%	35.68%	-0.06	+29.0	11
1925-10-31	@ Larne	L 1-4	49.4	1569	1484	35.68%	20.89%	43.43%	+0.06	-29.0	16
1925-10-31	Glentoran	L 0-1	53.4	1502	1667	32.26%	20.77%	46.97%	-0.50	-11.6	8
1925-10-31	@ Linfield	W 1-0	53.4	1667	1502	46.97%	20.77%	32.26%	+0.50	+11.6	14
1925-10-31	Portadown	W 3-2	62.5	1344	1593	22.56%	20.47%	56.97%	-0.97	+16.7	7
1925-10-31	@ Newry Town	L 2-3	62.5	1593	1344	56.97%	20.47%	22.56%	+0.97	-16.7	12
1925-10-31	Belfast Celtic	W 6-2	48.4	1586	1536	59.55%	20.67%	19.78%	+0.70	+19.4	11
1925-10-31	@ Queens Island	L 2-6	48.4	1536	1586	19.78%	20.67%	59.55%	-0.70	-19.4	12
1925-11-07	Cliftonville	L 1-2	46.6	1294	1395	41.20%	20.88%	37.92%	-0.14	-13.3	3
1925-11-07	@ Barn	W 2-1	46.6	1395	1294	37.92%	20.88%	41.20%	+0.14	+13.3	6
1925-11-07	Glenavon	W 4-1	46.3	1679	1520	68.29%	20.13%	11.58%	+1.30	+10.9	16
1925-11-07	@ Glentoran	L 1-4	46.3	1520	1679	11.58%	20.13%	68.29%	-1.30	-10.9	12
1925-11-07	Ards	W 1-0	46.3	1490	1510	51.91%	20.84%	27.25%	+0.31	+10.1	10
1925-11-07	@ Linfield	L 0-1	46.3	1510	1490	27.25%	20.84%	51.91%	-0.31	-10.1	10
1925-11-07	Belfast Celtic	D 0-0	61.4	1540	1516	56.76%	20.75%	22.49%	+0.55	-2.9	17
1925-11-07	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 0-0	61.4	1516	1540	22.49%	20.75%	56.76%	-0.55	+2.9	13
1925-11-07	Larne	L 1-2	48.3	1361	1513	34.07%	20.80%	45.13%	-0.43	-11.4	7
1925-11-07	@ Newry Town	W 2-1	48.3	1513	1361	45.13%	20.80%	34.07%	+0.43	+11.4	13
1925-11-07	Queens Island	L 1-2	63.6	1576	1606	50.63%	20.86%	28.52%	+0.25	-15.8	12
1925-11-07	@ Portadown	W 2-1	63.6	1606	1576	28.52%	20.86%	50.63%	-0.25	+15.8	13
1925-11-14	Queens Island	W 4-2	60.7	1500	1622	38.19%	20.86%	40.95%	-0.26	+20.5	12
1925-11-14	@ Ards	L 2-4	60.7	1622	1500	40.95%	20.86%	38.19%	+0.26	-20.5	13
1925-11-14	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	53.7	1281	1537	21.81%	20.43%	57.75%	-1.01	+17.9	5
1925-11-14	@ Barn	L 1-2	53.7	1537	1281	57.75%	20.43%	21.81%	+1.01	-17.9	17
1925-11-14	Newry Town	L 1-2	53.3	1408	1350	60.34%	20.64%	19.02%	+0.74	-18.7	6
1925-11-14	@ Cliftonville	W 2-1	53.3	1350	1408	19.02%	20.64%	60.34%	-0.74	+18.7	9
1925-11-14	Belfast Celtic	L 0-2	51.0	1509	1519	53.02%	20.83%	26.15%	+0.36	-33.0	12
1925-11-14	@ Glenavon	W 2-0	51.0	1519	1509	26.15%	20.83%	53.02%	-0.36	+33.0	15
1925-11-14	Portadown	W 2-0	45.3	1690	1560	66.28%	20.31%	13.41%	+1.14	+10.2	18
1925-11-14	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	45.3	1560	1690	13.41%	20.31%	66.28%	-1.14	-10.2	12
1925-11-14	Larne	D 2-2	68.6	1500	1524	51.39%	20.85%	27.76%	+0.28	-1.3	11
1925-11-14	@ Linfield	D 2-2	68.6	1524	1500	27.76%	20.85%	51.39%	-0.28	+1.3	14
1925-11-21	Barn	W 5-1	32.1	1552	1299	73.46%	19.44%	7.10%	+1.83	+8.8	17
1925-11-21	@ Belfast Celtic	L 1-5	32.1	1299	1552	7.10%	19.44%	73.46%	-1.83	-8.8	5
1925-11-21	Glentoran	D 1-1	69.4	1526	1700	31.08%	20.75%	48.17%	-0.56	+1.2	15
1925-11-21	@ Larne	D 1-1	69.4	1700	1526	48.17%	20.75%	31.08%	+0.56	-1.2	19
1925-11-21	Ards	L 2-5	58.2	1519	1520	54.03%	20.81%	25.15%	+0.41	-35.7	17
1925-11-21	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 5-2	58.2	1520	1519	25.15%	20.81%	54.03%	-0.41	+35.7	14
1925-11-21	Linfield	D 1-1	57.9	1368	1499	36.95%	20.84%	42.21%	-0.31	+0.4	10
1925-11-21	@ Newry Town	D 1-1	57.9	1499	1368	42.21%	20.84%	36.95%	+0.31	-0.4	12
1925-11-21	Glenavon	L 1-3	58.7	1550	1476	61.71%	20.58%	17.71%	+0.83	-33.2	12
1925-11-21	@ Portadown	W 3-1	58.7	1476	1550	17.71%	20.58%	61.71%	-0.83	+33.2	14
1925-11-21	Cliftonville	W 3-1	41.3	1601	1390	71.39%	19.77%	8.83%	+1.60	+6.0	15
1925-11-21	@ Queens Island	L 1-3	41.3	1390	1601	8.83%	19.77%	71.39%	-1.60	-6.0	6
1925-12-05	Belfast Celtic	L 1-2	62.7	1556	1561	53.59%	20.82%	25.59%	+0.39	-16.7	14
1925-12-05	@ Ards	W 2-1	62.7	1561	1556	25.59%	20.82%	53.59%	-0.39	+16.7	19
1925-12-05	Queens Island	L 0-2	35.1	1290	1607	16.31%	20.08%	63.61%	-1.35	-12.1	5
1925-12-05	@ Barn	W 2-0	35.1	1607	1290	63.61%	20.08%	16.31%	+1.35	+12.1	17
1925-12-05	Larne	D 2-2	64.5	1384	1527	35.26%	20.82%	43.92%	-0.38	+0.5	7
1925-12-05	@ Cliftonville	D 2-2	64.5	1527	1384	43.92%	20.82%	35.26%	+0.38	-0.5	16
1925-12-05	Newry Town	L 1-2	58.1	1509	1369	67.04%	20.25%	12.71%	+1.20	-20.8	14
1925-12-05	@ Glenavon	W 2-1	58.1	1369	1509	12.71%	20.25%	67.04%	-1.20	+20.8	12
1925-12-05	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	50.7	1699	1483	71.62%	19.74%	8.64%	+1.62	+3.4	21
1925-12-05	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	50.7	1483	1699	8.64%	19.74%	71.62%	-1.62	-3.4	17
1925-12-05	Portadown	L 0-1	54.3	1499	1517	52.11%	20.84%	27.05%	+0.32	-17.2	12
1925-12-05	@ Linfield	W 1-0	54.3	1517	1499	27.05%	20.84%	52.11%	-0.32	+17.2	14
1925-12-12	Newry Town	W 5-1	36.3	1539	1390	67.67%	20.19%	12.14%	+1.25	+14.7	16
1925-12-12	@ Ards	L 1-5	36.3	1390	1539	12.14%	20.19%	67.67%	-1.25	-14.7	12
1925-12-19	Linfield	W 5-3	53.7	1578	1481	63.67%	20.48%	15.85%	+0.95	+8.7	21
1925-12-19	@ Belfast Celtic	L 3-5	53.7	1481	1578	15.85%	20.48%	63.67%	-0.95	-8.7	12
1925-12-19	Barn	W 2-0	29.6	1526	1278	73.22%	19.48%	7.29%	+1.80	+5.7	18
1925-12-19	@ Larne	L 0-2	29.6	1278	1526	7.29%	19.48%	73.22%	-1.80	-5.7	5
1925-12-19	Cliftonville	D 1-1	57.9	1480	1384	63.60%	20.48%	15.91%	+0.95	-3.8	18
1925-12-19	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	57.9	1384	1480	15.91%	20.48%	63.60%	-0.95	+3.8	8
1925-12-19	Glentoran	L 2-3	55.1	1375	1702	15.50%	20.01%	64.49%	-1.41	-5.5	12
1925-12-19	@ Newry Town	W 3-2	55.1	1702	1375	64.49%	20.01%	15.50%	+1.41	+5.5	23
1925-12-19	Ards	D 2-2	70.9	1534	1554	51.83%	20.84%	27.32%	+0.30	-1.4	15
1925-12-19	@ Portadown	D 2-2	70.9	1554	1534	27.32%	20.84%	51.83%	-0.30	+1.4	17
1925-12-19	Glenavon	W 1-0	45.8	1619	1488	66.35%	20.30%	13.35%	+1.15	+5.4	19
1925-12-19	@ Queens Island	L 0-1	45.8	1488	1619	13.35%	20.30%	66.35%	-1.15	-5.4	14
1925-12-24	Belfast Celtic	W 3-0	45.7	1388	1587	28.10%	20.67%	51.22%	-0.69	+46.4	10
1925-12-24	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	45.7	1587	1388	51.22%	20.67%	28.10%	+0.69	-46.4	21
1925-12-25	Portadown	D 1-1	56.4	1272	1532	21.36%	20.41%	58.23%	-1.03	+2.8	6
1925-12-25	@ Barn	D 1-1	56.4	1532	1272	58.23%	20.41%	21.36%	+1.03	-2.8	16
1925-12-25	Larne	D 2-2	68.3	1483	1532	48.22%	20.88%	30.90%	+0.14	-0.9	15
1925-12-25	@ Glenavon	D 2-2	68.3	1532	1483	30.90%	20.88%	48.22%	-0.14	+0.9	19
1925-12-25	Queens Island	D 2-2	76.3	1708	1625	62.54%	20.54%	16.92%	+0.88	-2.7	24
1925-12-25	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	76.3	1625	1708	16.92%	20.54%	62.54%	-0.88	+2.7	20
1925-12-25	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	45.0	1473	1476	53.83%	20.81%	25.36%	+0.40	+15.5	14
1925-12-25	@ Linfield	L 1-3	45.0	1476	1473	25.36%	20.81%	53.83%	-0.40	-15.5	18
1925-12-26	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	47.1	1482	1460	56.58%	20.76%	22.66%	+0.54	+8.1	17
1925-12-26	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	47.1	1460	1482	22.66%	20.76%	56.58%	-0.54	-8.1	18
1925-12-26	Belfast Celtic	L 2-3	75.5	1705	1540	68.67%	20.10%	11.23%	+1.34	-20.3	24
1925-12-26	@ Glentoran	W 3-2	75.5	1540	1705	11.23%	20.10%	68.67%	-1.34	+20.3	23
1925-12-26	Ards	W 4-1	48.2	1533	1555	51.57%	20.85%	27.59%	+0.29	+23.5	21
1925-12-26	@ Larne	L 1-4	48.2	1555	1533	27.59%	20.85%	51.57%	-0.29	-23.5	17
1925-12-26	Barn	W 3-1	35.3	1369	1275	63.49%	20.49%	16.02%	+0.94	+10.4	14
1925-12-26	@ Newry Town	L 1-3	35.3	1275	1369	16.02%	20.49%	63.49%	-0.94	-10.4	6
1925-12-26	Cliftonville	D 0-0	58.0	1530	1434	63.58%	20.48%	15.94%	+0.95	-4.2	17
1925-12-26	@ Portadown	D 0-0	58.0	1434	1530	15.94%	20.48%	63.58%	-0.95	+4.2	11
1925-12-26	Linfield	D 2-2	72.0	1627	1488	66.94%	20.25%	12.81%	+1.19	-3.2	21
1925-12-26	@ Queens Island	D 2-2	72.0	1488	1627	12.81%	20.25%	66.94%	-1.19	+3.2	15
1926-01-02	Larne	W 5-2	52.1	1560	1556	54.64%	20.80%	24.56%	+0.44	+18.5	25
1926-01-02	@ Belfast Celtic	L 2-5	52.1	1556	1560	24.56%	20.80%	54.64%	-0.44	-18.5	21
1926-01-02	Portadown	W 3-2	57.3	1452	1525	45.04%	20.89%	34.07%	+0.01	+10.8	20
1926-01-02	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 2-3	57.3	1525	1452	34.07%	20.89%	45.04%	-0.01	-10.8	17
1926-01-02	Newry Town	W 2-0	36.0	1624	1380	73.04%	19.51%	7.44%	+1.78	+5.9	23
1926-01-02	@ Queens Island	L 0-2	36.0	1380	1624	7.44%	19.51%	73.04%	-1.78	-5.8	14
1926-01-02	Barn	W 3-1	34.1	1490	1265	72.12%	19.66%	8.22%	+1.67	+5.6	19
1926-01-02	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	34.1	1265	1490	8.22%	19.66%	72.12%	-1.67	-5.6	6
1926-01-09	Cliftonville	D 1-1	61.5	1532	1439	63.41%	20.49%	16.10%	+0.94	-3.7	18
1926-01-09	@ Ards	D 1-1	61.5	1439	1532	16.10%	20.49%	63.41%	-0.94	+3.7	12
1926-01-09	Barn	W 4-1	34.6	1685	1259	79.42%	17.72%	2.86%	+2.79	+2.7	26
1926-01-09	@ Glentoran	L 1-4	34.6	1259	1685	2.86%	17.72%	79.42%	-2.79	-2.7	6
1926-01-09	Queens Island	W 2-0	50.7	1538	1630	42.45%	20.88%	36.67%	-0.10	+24.2	23
1926-01-09	@ Larne	L 0-2	50.7	1630	1538	36.67%	20.88%	42.45%	+0.10	-24.2	23
1926-01-09	Glenavon	W 4-1	43.9	1492	1496	53.71%	20.82%	25.47%	+0.39	+22.0	17
1926-01-09	@ Linfield	L 1-4	43.9	1496	1492	25.47%	20.82%	53.71%	-0.39	-22.0	19
1926-01-09	Lisburn Distillery	D 0-0	53.8	1374	1463	42.81%	20.88%	36.30%	-0.08	-0.5	15
1926-01-09	@ Newry Town	D 0-0	53.8	1463	1374	36.30%	20.88%	42.81%	+0.08	+0.5	21
1926-01-09	Belfast Celtic	L 2-3	65.1	1515	1579	46.22%	20.89%	32.89%	+0.06	-13.9	17
1926-01-09	@ Portadown	W 3-2	65.1	1579	1515	32.89%	20.89%	46.22%	-0.06	+13.9	27
1926-01-16	Cliftonville	W 2-1	46.1	1514	1442	61.49%	20.59%	17.93%	+0.81	+6.6	19
1926-01-16	@ Linfield	L 1-2	46.1	1442	1514	17.93%	20.59%	61.49%	-0.81	-6.6	12
1926-01-16	Lisburn Distillery	L 2-3	70.4	1606	1464	67.15%	20.24%	12.61%	+1.21	-19.8	23
1926-01-16	@ Queens Island	W 3-2	70.4	1464	1606	12.61%	20.24%	67.15%	-1.21	+19.8	23
1926-01-20	Glentoran	L 2-3	58.7	1436	1687	22.20%	20.45%	57.35%	-0.99	-7.5	12
1926-01-20	@ Cliftonville	W 3-2	58.7	1687	1436	57.35%	20.45%	22.20%	+0.99	+7.5	28
1926-01-23	Ards	L 3-4	51.0	1256	1528	20.25%	20.35%	59.40%	-1.10	-6.8	6
1926-01-23	@ Barn	W 4-3	51.0	1528	1256	59.40%	20.35%	20.25%	+1.10	+6.8	20
1926-01-23	Queens Island	W 2-1	55.6	1593	1586	54.97%	20.79%	24.24%	+0.46	+8.6	29
1926-01-23	@ Belfast Celtic	L 1-2	55.6	1586	1593	24.24%	20.79%	54.97%	-0.46	-8.6	23
1926-01-23	Glenavon	L 0-1	49.2	1428	1474	48.66%	20.87%	30.46%	+0.16	-16.2	12
1926-01-23	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	49.2	1474	1428	30.46%	20.87%	48.66%	-0.16	+16.2	21
1926-01-23	Linfield	W 3-2	57.5	1695	1520	69.30%	20.03%	10.67%	+1.39	+3.9	30
1926-01-23	@ Glentoran	L 2-3	57.5	1520	1695	10.67%	20.03%	69.30%	-1.39	-3.9	19
1926-01-23	Larne	W 1-0	50.3	1484	1562	44.27%	20.89%	34.84%	-0.02	+12.3	25
1926-01-23	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 0-1	50.3	1562	1484	34.84%	20.89%	44.27%	+0.02	-12.3	23
1926-01-23	Newry Town	W 4-1	36.2	1501	1373	66.10%	20.32%	13.58%	+1.13	+12.7	19
1926-01-23	@ Portadown	L 1-4	36.2	1373	1501	13.58%	20.32%	66.10%	-1.13	-12.7	15
1926-01-30	Linfield	L 1-3	38.3	1250	1516	20.73%	20.38%	58.89%	-1.07	-13.0	6
1926-01-30	@ Barn	W 3-1	38.3	1516	1250	58.89%	20.38%	20.73%	+1.07	+13.0	21
1926-01-30	Ards	L 0-2	49.6	1490	1535	48.76%	20.87%	30.37%	+0.17	-30.6	21
1926-01-30	@ Glenavon	W 2-0	49.6	1535	1490	30.37%	20.87%	48.76%	-0.17	+30.6	22
1926-01-30	Portadown	W 4-1	45.4	1550	1513	58.14%	20.71%	21.15%	+0.62	+18.8	25
1926-01-30	@ Larne	L 1-4	45.4	1513	1550	21.15%	20.71%	58.14%	-0.62	-18.8	19
1926-01-30	Belfast Celtic	L 1-2	47.9	1361	1601	23.35%	20.50%	56.15%	-0.92	-8.3	15
1926-01-30	@ Newry Town	W 2-1	47.9	1601	1361	56.15%	20.50%	23.35%	+0.92	+8.3	31
1926-02-06	Portadown	L 0-2	55.4	1577	1495	62.51%	20.54%	16.95%	+0.88	-38.8	23
1926-02-06	@ Queens Island	W 2-0	55.4	1495	1577	16.95%	20.54%	62.51%	-0.88	+38.8	21
1926-02-20	Linfield	W 6-1	44.9	1565	1529	58.12%	20.71%	21.17%	+0.62	+29.7	24
1926-02-20	@ Ards	L 1-6	44.9	1529	1565	21.17%	20.71%	58.12%	-0.62	-29.7	21
1926-02-20	Newry Town	W 1-0	37.5	1569	1352	71.65%	19.74%	8.62%	+1.62	+3.6	27
1926-02-20	@ Larne	L 0-1	37.5	1352	1569	8.62%	19.74%	71.65%	-1.62	-3.6	15
1926-02-27	Glentoran	W 2-1	62.0	1595	1699	40.78%	20.88%	38.34%	-0.16	+12.5	26
1926-02-27	@ Ards	L 1-2	62.0	1699	1595	38.34%	20.88%	40.78%	+0.16	-12.5	30
1926-03-03	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	50.4	1610	1496	65.07%	20.39%	14.53%	+1.05	+5.5	33
1926-03-03	@ Belfast Celtic	L 1-2	50.4	1496	1610	14.53%	20.39%	65.07%	-1.05	-5.5	25
1926-03-03	Glentoran	W 2-1	63.7	1459	1686	24.82%	20.56%	54.62%	-0.85	+17.0	23
1926-03-03	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	63.7	1686	1459	54.62%	20.56%	24.82%	+0.85	-16.9	30
1926-03-22	Barn	W 3-2	42.1	1412	1237	69.32%	20.03%	10.65%	+1.39	+3.9	14
1926-03-22	@ Cliftonville	L 2-3	42.1	1237	1412	10.65%	20.03%	69.32%	-1.39	-3.9	6

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1925-10-31	7.78%	Cliftonville	1340	4	@ Glenavon	1576	1
2	1925-12-26	11.23%	Belfast Celtic	1540	3	@ Glentoran	1705	2
3	1926-01-16	12.61%	Lisburn Distillery	1464	3	@ Queens Island	1606	2
4	1925-12-05	12.71%	Newry Town	1369	2	@ Glenavon	1509	1
5	1925-08-22	14.57%	Ards	1499	5	@ Queens Island	1612	3
6	1925-10-10	16.06%	Linfield	1484	3	@ Glenavon	1578	2
7	1926-02-06	16.95%	Portadown	1495	2	@ Queens Island	1577	0
8	1925-11-21	17.71%	Glenavon	1476	3	@ Portadown	1550	1
9	1925-08-29	18.70%	Lisburn Distillery	1466	2	@ Ards	1529	1
10	1925-11-14	19.02%	Newry Town	1350	2	@ Cliftonville	1408	1
11	1925-11-14	21.81%	@ Barn	1281	2	Lisburn Distillery	1537	1
12	1925-10-10	21.98%	Portadown	1535	3	@ Belfast Celtic	1563	1
13	1925-10-31	22.56%	@ Newry Town	1344	3	Portadown	1593	2
14	1925-09-26	23.93%	Larne	1482	3	@ Ards	1492	1
15	1926-03-03	24.82%	@ Glenavon	1459	2	Glentoran	1686	1
16	1925-11-21	25.15%	Ards	1520	5	@ Lisburn Distillery	1519	2
17	1925-12-05	25.59%	Belfast Celtic	1561	2	@ Ards	1556	1
18	1925-11-14	26.15%	Belfast Celtic	1519	2	@ Glenavon	1509	0
19	1925-08-22	26.34%	Glenavon	1527	1	@ Belfast Celtic	1516	0
20	1925-12-05	27.05%	Portadown	1517	1	@ Linfield	1499	0
21	1925-12-24	28.10%	@ Cliftonville	1388	3	Belfast Celtic	1587	0
22	1925-09-12	28.27%	Belfast Celtic	1543	4	@ Linfield	1515	2
23	1925-11-07	28.52%	Queens Island	1606	2	@ Portadown	1576	1
24	1926-01-30	30.37%	Ards	1535	2	@ Glenavon	1490	0
25	1926-01-23	30.46%	Glenavon	1474	1	@ Cliftonville	1428	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1925-10-31	55.48	Cliftonville	4	1340	7.78%	@ Glenavon	1	1576	72.64%	19.58%
2	1925-12-24	46.42	@ Cliftonville	3	1388	28.10%	Belfast Celtic	0	1587	51.22%	20.67%
3	1925-10-10	43.42	Glentoran	6	1617	57.81%	@ Barn	0	1361	21.76%	20.43%
4	1926-02-06	38.78	Portadown	2	1495	16.95%	@ Queens Island	0	1577	62.51%	20.54%
5	1925-11-21	35.68	Ards	5	1520	25.15%	@ Lisburn Distillery	2	1519	54.03%	20.81%
6	1925-08-22	33.23	@ Larne	3	1443	44.93%	Linfield	0	1517	34.18%	20.89%
7	1925-11-21	33.15	Glenavon	3	1476	17.71%	@ Portadown	1	1550	61.71%	20.58%
8	1925-11-14	33.04	Belfast Celtic	2	1519	26.15%	@ Glenavon	0	1509	53.02%	20.83%
9	1925-10-10	30.80	Portadown	3	1535	21.98%	@ Belfast Celtic	1	1563	57.28%	20.74%
10	1926-01-30	30.63	Ards	2	1535	30.37%	@ Glenavon	0	1490	48.76%	20.87%
11	1925-08-29	30.28	@ Linfield	5	1484	62.00%	Newry Town	0	1407	17.44%	20.57%
12	1925-09-26	29.76	Larne	3	1482	23.93%	@ Ards	1	1492	55.29%	20.79%
13	1926-02-20	29.71	@ Ards	6	1565	58.12%	Linfield	1	1529	21.17%	20.71%
14	1925-08-22	29.56	Ards	5	1499	14.57%	@ Queens Island	3	1612	65.04%	20.39%
15	1925-10-31	29.00	@ Larne	4	1484	43.43%	Lisburn Distillery	1	1569	35.68%	20.89%
16	1925-08-29	28.48	Belfast Celtic	2	1498	34.28%	@ Barn	0	1424	44.83%	20.89%
17	1925-10-17	26.98	@ Portadown	4	1566	59.95%	Larne	0	1511	19.40%	20.65%
18	1925-10-03	25.58	@ Linfield	6	1458	61.58%	Barn	1	1386	17.83%	20.58%
19	1925-09-26	25.19	Portadown	2	1511	40.56%	@ Cliftonville	0	1392	38.58%	20.86%
20	1925-10-10	24.99	Ards	2	1486	40.96%	@ Cliftonville	0	1364	38.19%	20.86%
21	1925-09-12	24.65	Belfast Celtic	4	1543	28.27%	@ Linfield	2	1515	50.87%	20.86%
22	1925-09-12	24.41	Lisburn Distillery	3	1499	34.84%	@ Cliftonville	1	1420	44.27%	20.89%
23	1926-01-09	24.20	@ Larne	2	1538	42.45%	Queens Island	0	1630	36.67%	20.88%
24	1925-10-03	24.02	@ Ards	3	1462	35.68%	Glenavon	1	1602	43.49%	20.83%
25	1925-12-26	23.51	@ Larne	4	1533	51.57%	Ards	1	1555	27.59%	20.85%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1925-12-25	76.3	@ Glentoran	2	1708	62.54%	Queens Island	2	1625	16.92%	20.54%
2	1925-09-19	75.6	@ Larne	3	1482	38.62%	Glenavon	3	1601	40.52%	20.86%
3	1925-12-26	75.5	Belfast Celtic	3	1540	11.23%	@ Glentoran	2	1705	68.67%	20.10%
4	1925-09-05	73.2	@ Portadown	3	1502	52.83%	Linfield	3	1514	26.34%	20.83%
5	1925-08-22	72.7	@ Portadown	2	1522	41.11%	Glentoran	2	1624	38.02%	20.88%
6	1925-09-12	72.4	@ Ards	3	1493	53.30%	Portadown	3	1501	25.87%	20.82%
7	1925-12-26	72.0	@ Queens Island	2	1627	66.94%	Linfield	2	1488	12.81%	20.25%
8	1925-12-19	70.9	@ Portadown	2	1534	51.83%	Ards	2	1554	27.32%	20.84%
9	1925-10-03	70.6	@ Portadown	2	1536	53.61%	Lisburn Distillery	2	1541	25.58%	20.82%
10	1926-01-16	70.4	Lisburn Distillery	3	1464	12.61%	@ Queens Island	2	1606	67.15%	20.24%
11	1925-08-22	70.2	Ards	5	1499	14.57%	@ Queens Island	3	1612	65.04%	20.39%
12	1925-11-21	69.4	@ Larne	1	1526	31.08%	Glentoran	1	1700	48.17%	20.75%
13	1925-10-10	69.1	Linfield	3	1484	16.06%	@ Glenavon	2	1578	63.45%	20.49%
14	1925-09-19	68.9	@ Queens Island	1	1578	48.72%	Glentoran	1	1623	30.41%	20.87%
15	1925-08-29	68.7	@ Cliftonville	2	1443	35.67%	Queens Island	2	1583	43.50%	20.83%
16	1925-11-14	68.6	@ Linfield	2	1500	51.39%	Larne	2	1524	27.76%	20.85%
17	1925-12-25	68.3	@ Glenavon	2	1483	48.22%	Larne	2	1532	30.90%	20.88%
18	1925-09-26	67.8	@ Barn	4	1388	58.46%	Newry Town	4	1348	20.84%	20.70%
19	1925-09-26	67.4	@ Lisburn Distillery	1	1543	47.04%	Glenavon	1	1601	32.08%	20.88%
20	1925-09-19	67.2	@ Newry Town	3	1348	35.09%	Ards	3	1492	44.09%	20.82%
21	1925-10-03	65.6	@ Newry Town	2	1350	23.42%	Queens Island	2	1590	56.08%	20.51%
22	1926-01-09	65.1	Belfast Celtic	3	1579	32.89%	@ Portadown	2	1515	46.22%	20.89%
23	1925-12-05	64.5	@ Cliftonville	2	1384	35.26%	Larne	2	1527	43.92%	20.82%
24	1926-03-03	63.7	@ Glenavon	2	1459	24.82%	Glentoran	1	1686	54.62%	20.56%
25	1925-11-07	63.6	Queens Island	2	1606	28.52%	@ Portadown	1	1576	50.63%	20.86%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1925-12-19	29.6	@ Larne	2	1526	73.22%	Barn	0	1278	7.29%	19.48%
2	1925-11-21	32.1	@ Belfast Celtic	5	1552	73.46%	Barn	1	1299	7.10%	19.44%
3	1925-08-29	32.6	@ Linfield	5	1484	62.00%	Newry Town	0	1407	17.44%	20.57%
4	1925-09-05	33.2	@ Queens Island	3	1582	70.05%	Barn	0	1395	10.00%	19.95%
5	1926-01-02	34.1	@ Glenavon	3	1490	72.12%	Barn	1	1265	8.22%	19.66%
6	1926-01-09	34.6	@ Glentoran	4	1685	79.42%	Barn	1	1259	2.86%	17.72%
7	1925-09-05	34.8	@ Larne	3	1472	57.29%	Cliftonville	0	1443	21.98%	20.74%
8	1925-12-05	35.1	Queens Island	2	1607	63.61%	@ Barn	0	1290	16.31%	20.08%
9	1925-10-03	35.2	@ Linfield	6	1458	61.58%	Barn	1	1386	17.83%	20.58%
10	1925-12-26	35.3	@ Newry Town	3	1369	63.49%	Barn	1	1275	16.02%	20.49%
11	1925-10-31	35.5	@ Ards	3	1504	70.93%	Barn	1	1301	9.23%	19.83%
12	1925-09-12	36.0	@ Glentoran	5	1615	73.68%	Newry Town	1	1356	6.92%	19.40%
13	1926-01-02	36.0	@ Queens Island	2	1624	73.04%	Newry Town	0	1380	7.44%	19.51%
14	1926-01-23	36.2	@ Portadown	4	1501	66.10%	Newry Town	1	1373	13.58%	20.32%
15	1925-12-12	36.3	@ Ards	5	1539	67.67%	Newry Town	1	1390	12.14%	20.19%
16	1925-10-17	36.6	Glenavon	2	1559	56.27%	@ Barn	0	1317	23.23%	20.50%
17	1926-02-20	37.5	@ Larne	1	1569	71.65%	Newry Town	0	1352	8.62%	19.74%
18	1925-10-10	38.1	Glentoran	6	1617	57.81%	@ Barn	0	1361	21.76%	20.43%
19	1926-01-30	38.3	Linfield	3	1516	58.89%	@ Barn	1	1250	20.73%	20.38%
20	1925-10-17	39.1	@ Portadown	4	1566	59.95%	Larne	0	1511	19.40%	20.65%
21	1925-08-22	40.1	@ Larne	3	1443	44.93%	Linfield	0	1517	34.18%	20.89%
22	1925-10-10	40.4	Ards	2	1486	40.96%	@ Cliftonville	0	1364	38.19%	20.86%
23	1925-09-05	40.7	Glenavon	2	1565	49.92%	@ Newry Town	0	1377	29.38%	20.71%
24	1925-10-10	41.2	@ Queens Island	3	1588	60.13%	Larne	0	1531	19.22%	20.65%
25	1925-11-21	41.3	@ Queens Island	3	1601	71.39%	Cliftonville	1	1390	8.83%	19.77%