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1940-41 Irish League Season

110 games

Final

Champion

Belfast Celtic

42 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lisburn Distillery

6.67 points above expected

31 points · 24.33 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cliftonville

5.81 points below expected

5 points · 10.81 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Belfast Celtic 27 19 4 4 42 104 32 +72 42.29 -0.29
2 Portadown 27 17 4 6 38 92 58 +34 34.97 +3.03
3 Glentoran 28 16 5 7 37 99 57 +42 36.74 +0.26
4 Linfield 27 14 4 9 32 67 51 +16 30.13 +1.87
5 Lisburn Distillery 28 13 5 10 31 77 57 +20 24.33 +6.67
6 Derry City 28 8 3 17 19 48 100 -52 23.41 -4.41
7 Glenavon 27 6 4 17 16 40 95 -55 17.32 -1.32
8 Cliftonville 28 2 1 25 5 40 117 -77 10.81 -5.81

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lisburn Distillery 31 24.33 +6.67
2 Portadown 38 34.97 +3.03
3 Linfield 32 30.13 +1.87
4 Glentoran 37 36.74 +0.26
5 Belfast Celtic 42 42.29 -0.29

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cliftonville 5 10.81 -5.81
2 Derry City 19 23.41 -4.41
3 Glenavon 16 17.32 -1.32
4 Belfast Celtic 42 42.29 -0.29
5 Glentoran 37 36.74 +0.26

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Linfield 5 Dec 14 – Dec 28 1 in 259
2 Belfast Celtic 14 Jan 4 – Apr 28 1 in 63
3 Derry City 3 May 3 – May 14 1 in 35
4 Portadown 8 Mar 29 – May 10 1 in 31
5 Lisburn Distillery 2 Nov 16 – Nov 23 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 19 Dec 28 – May 12 1 in 156
2 Glentoran 2 Apr 15 – Apr 19 1 in 25
3 Glenavon 5 Apr 19 – May 29 1 in 22
4 Linfield 2 May 14 – May 17 1 in 12
5 Derry City 4 Jan 4 – Feb 1 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Linfield 8 Dec 14 – Feb 1 1 in 130
2 Derry City 4 Apr 19 – May 14 1 in 27
3 Glenavon 3 Mar 8 – Mar 27 1 in 22
4 Belfast Celtic 17 Jan 4 – May 7 1 in 11
5 Lisburn Distillery 3 Jan 4 – Jan 25 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glentoran 4 Feb 8 – Mar 8 1 in 54
2 Linfield 4 Apr 14 – May 3 1 in 35
3 Cliftonville 26 Nov 23 – May 12 1 in 24
4 Belfast Celtic 3 Dec 25 – Dec 28 1 in 14
5 Derry City 6 Dec 26 – Feb 1 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Belfast Celtic 1781 42 -19 6 8.0 -2.0
Portadown 1663 38 +21 10 7.1 +2.9
Glentoran 1656 37 +10 7 6.0 +1.0
Linfield 1553 32 -8 3 4.9 -1.9
Lisburn Distillery 1521 31 +28 7 6.0 +1.0
Derry City 1346 19 +5 7 3.8 +3.2
Glenavon 1324 16 -27 0 3.3 -3.3
Cliftonville 1156 5 -1 2 1.9 +0.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BC CLI DC GLE GLE LIN LD POR
Belfast Celtic —
4-0-0
10.60
3-0-1
9.63
4-0-0
10.08
1-2-1
7.60
2-0-2
8.52
3-1-0
9.32
2-1-0
5.69
Cliftonville
0-0-4
0.90
 —
0-0-4
2.82
2-1-1
3.42
0-0-4
1.19
0-0-4
1.92
0-0-4
2.19
0-0-4
1.34
Derry City
1-0-3
1.83
4-0-0
8.62
 —
2-0-2
6.57
0-1-3
2.97
1-1-2
3.86
0-0-4
5.62
0-1-3
3.11
Glenavon
0-0-4
1.39
1-1-2
8.01
2-0-2
4.85
 —
2-1-1
2.02
0-1-2
2.02
1-1-2
4.26
0-0-4
2.30
Glentoran
1-2-1
3.83
4-0-0
10.29
3-1-0
8.47
1-1-2
9.43
 —
2-1-1
7.13
3-0-1
8.26
2-0-2
5.97
Linfield
2-0-2
2.91
4-0-0
9.54
2-1-1
7.57
2-1-0
6.55
1-1-2
4.30
 —
1-1-2
7.18
2-0-2
4.58
Lisburn Distillery
0-1-3
2.13
4-0-0
9.26
4-0-0
5.81
2-1-1
7.16
1-0-3
3.17
2-1-1
4.25
 —
0-2-2
3.36
Portadown
0-1-2
2.88
4-0-0
10.14
3-1-0
8.33
4-0-0
9.14
2-0-2
5.45
2-0-2
6.84
2-2-0
8.07
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +4.6
Allowed 0.92 -4.2
Differential 0.96 +2.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
00.91%2.27%1.36%0.45%3.64%4.55%13.18%
12.27%5.45%5.91%4.55%1.82%4.55%24.55%
21.36%5.91%5.45%2.27%1.36%5.45%21.82%
30.45%4.55%2.27%1.82%1.82%1.82%12.73%
43.64%1.82%1.36%1.82%—0.91%9.55%
5+4.55%4.55%5.45%1.82%0.91%0.91%18.18%
Total13.18%24.55%21.82%12.73%9.55%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.58 2.58 +0.00
SD 2.16 2.16 3.49
CV 0.84 0.84 —
Max 13 13 +13
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 110

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.70%3.70%————7.41%
17.41%3.70%7.41%———18.52%
23.70%—3.70%—3.70%—11.11%
33.70%11.11%3.70%3.70%——22.22%
47.41%—————7.41%
5+7.41%7.41%18.52%———33.33%
Total33.33%25.93%33.33%3.70%3.70%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.85 1.19 +2.67
SD 3.11 1.08 3.31
CV 0.81 0.91 —
Max 13 4 +13
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%——3.57%7.14%14.29%
1—3.57%10.71%17.86%—17.86%50.00%
2—3.57%——3.57%10.71%17.86%
3——3.57%—3.57%7.14%14.29%
4—————3.57%3.57%
5+———————
Total—10.71%14.29%17.86%10.71%46.43%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 4.18 -2.75
SD 1.03 2.14 2.32
CV 0.72 0.51 —
Max 4 9 +1
Min 0 1 -8

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%——17.86%7.14%28.57%
1——3.57%—3.57%3.57%10.71%
2—14.29%10.71%3.57%—17.86%46.43%
3———————
4———3.57%——3.57%
5+——3.57%3.57%3.57%—10.71%
Total—17.86%17.86%10.71%25.00%28.57%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 3.57 -1.86
SD 1.54 1.95 2.69
CV 0.90 0.55 —
Max 5 8 +3
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%14.81%29.63%
13.70%11.11%3.70%3.70%3.70%7.41%33.33%
2—7.41%3.70%3.70%—3.70%18.52%
3——3.70%—3.70%3.70%11.11%
4———————
5+—3.70%—3.70%——7.41%
Total3.70%25.93%14.81%14.81%11.11%29.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.48 3.52 -2.04
SD 1.63 2.89 3.71
CV 1.10 0.82 —
Max 6 13 +5
Min 0 0 -13

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%————3.57%
1—7.14%7.14%———14.29%
2—3.57%3.57%——3.57%10.71%
3—7.14%3.57%7.14%3.57%3.57%25.00%
410.71%3.57%3.57%———17.86%
5+10.71%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%3.57%28.57%
Total21.43%28.57%21.43%10.71%7.14%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.54 2.04 +1.50
SD 1.97 2.03 2.92
CV 0.56 1.00 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——3.70%———3.70%
13.70%7.41%7.41%7.41%3.70%3.70%33.33%
27.41%7.41%3.70%——3.70%22.22%
3—3.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%—14.81%
43.70%3.70%3.70%3.70%——14.81%
5+3.70%3.70%3.70%———11.11%
Total18.52%25.93%25.93%14.81%7.41%7.41%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.48 1.89 +0.59
SD 1.72 1.48 2.48
CV 0.69 0.78 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 27

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.57%———3.57%3.57%10.71%
13.57%7.14%7.14%3.57%—3.57%25.00%
2—3.57%7.14%10.71%—3.57%25.00%
3—7.14%————7.14%
4—3.57%————3.57%
5+7.14%14.29%3.57%3.57%——28.57%
Total14.29%35.71%17.86%17.86%3.57%10.71%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.75 2.04 +0.71
SD 2.17 1.77 3.26
CV 0.79 0.87 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——3.70%——3.70%7.41%
1—3.70%—3.70%3.70%—11.11%
2—7.41%11.11%—3.70%—22.22%
3—7.41%————7.41%
47.41%3.70%3.70%7.41%—3.70%25.93%
5+7.41%3.70%11.11%——3.70%25.93%
Total14.81%25.93%29.63%11.11%7.41%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.41 2.15 +1.26
SD 2.14 1.79 3.16
CV 0.63 0.83 —
Max 8 7 +8
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 27

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Belfast Celtic 1781 42 43.29 -1.29 37.0% 32 36 41 44 46 49 51
Portadown 1663 38 35.97 +2.03 72.0% 25 28 34 36 39 42 46
Glentoran 1656 37 36.74 +0.26 57.0% 28 30 34 37 39 44 49
Linfield 1553 32 31.13 +0.87 63.0% 21 24 28 31 34 39 45
Lisburn Distillery 1521 31 24.33 +6.67 95.0% 15 16 21 24 27 31 36
Derry City 1346 19 23.41 -4.41 18.0% 13 17 21 23 26 31 34
Glenavon 1324 16 18.32 -2.32 31.0% 6 11 16 18 21 24 27
Cliftonville 1156 5 10.81 -5.81 6.0% 3 5 9 11 13 17 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.00%
Slight Edge
48.18%13.64%38.18%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 34.86 Elo pts.
120 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.75 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.29+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
1.4
One-Team Race
12348
Champion Preseason Odds
83%
Belfast Celtic, 1st of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Tight Race
00.190.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.27 * Some Luck: 3.27 to 4.91 * Lucky: 4.91 to 6.54 * Wild Swing: 6.54 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.44 * Close: 0.44 to 0.66 * Off: 0.66 to 0.87 * Way Off: 0.87 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.67 points
Some Luck
04.0910
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.25
Pinpoint
00.551.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
95.00%
Lisburn Distillery
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
6.00%
Cliftonville
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.24
Top-Heavy
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 208.98
2.61
Wide Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
86%
Wide Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 98%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
40%
Few
0%33%100%
Blowouts
Expected
45%
Very Frequent
0%48%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.47
Highly Predictable
00.482
Matchup Imbalance
0.53
Lopsided
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.85
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.88
Near-Lock
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Chalky
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
16%
As Expected
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.33
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.01
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.106
Well Within Noise
00.1380.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Belfast Celtic83.00%12.00%2.00%3.00%————
Portadown3.00%37.00%46.00%10.00%4.00%———
Glentoran12.00%40.00%34.00%14.00%————
Linfield2.00%10.00%16.00%43.00%23.00%6.00%——
Lisburn Distillery—1.00%2.00%20.00%32.00%32.00%13.00%—
Derry City———10.00%30.00%41.00%16.00%3.00%
Glenavon————10.00%19.00%59.00%12.00%
Cliftonville————1.00%2.00%12.00%85.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Belfast Celtic 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Derry City 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Portadown 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1940-11-16 Portadown W 6-048.2 1696 1633 58.13% 14.39% 27.48%+0.82 +28.8 2
1940-11-16 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-648.2 1633 1696 27.48% 14.39% 58.13%-0.82 -28.8 0
1940-11-16 Lisburn Distillery L 1-257.8 1537 1385 67.29% 14.20% 18.52%+1.55 -11.7 0
1940-11-16 @ Derry City W 2-157.8 1385 1537 18.52% 14.20% 67.29%-1.55 +11.7 2
1940-11-16 Cliftonville L 1-252.1 1411 1269 66.35% 14.22% 19.43%+1.47 -11.5 0
1940-11-16 @ Glenavon W 2-152.1 1269 1411 19.43% 14.22% 66.35%-1.47 +11.5 2
1940-11-16 Glentoran L 1-451.2 1484 1585 36.00% 14.43% 49.57%-0.55 -16.1 0
1940-11-16 @ Linfield W 4-151.2 1585 1484 49.57% 14.43% 36.00%+0.55 +16.1 2
1940-11-23 Linfield L 0-532.0 1281 1468 25.34% 14.28% 60.38%-1.27 -22.5 2
1940-11-23 @ Cliftonville W 5-032.0 1468 1281 60.38% 14.28% 25.34%+1.27 +22.5 2
1940-11-23 Belfast Celtic D 1-171.5 1601 1725 32.95% 14.40% 52.64%-0.74 +0.9 3
1940-11-23 @ Glentoran D 1-171.5 1725 1601 52.64% 14.40% 32.95%+0.74 -0.8 3
1940-11-23 Glenavon W 5-036.1 1397 1399 49.82% 14.46% 35.73%+0.27 +30.6 4
1940-11-23 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-536.1 1399 1397 35.73% 14.46% 49.82%-0.27 -30.6 0
1940-11-23 Derry City W 6-252.2 1604 1525 59.88% 14.36% 25.75%+0.95 +13.1 2
1940-11-23 @ Portadown L 2-652.2 1525 1604 25.75% 14.36% 59.88%-0.95 -13.1 0
1940-11-30 Cliftonville W 9-134.2 1724 1258 83.68% 12.66% 3.66%+4.17 +4.4 5
1940-11-30 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-934.2 1258 1724 3.66% 12.66% 83.68%-4.17 -4.4 2
1940-11-30 Glentoran L 0-448.0 1512 1602 37.46% 14.44% 48.10%-0.46 -25.9 0
1940-11-30 @ Derry City W 4-048.0 1602 1512 48.10% 14.44% 37.46%+0.46 +25.9 5
1940-11-30 Glenavon W 2-037.4 1491 1368 64.53% 14.27% 21.20%+1.31 +8.2 4
1940-11-30 @ Linfield L 0-237.4 1368 1491 21.20% 14.27% 64.53%-1.31 -8.2 0
1940-11-30 Lisburn Distillery W 3-145.4 1617 1428 70.47% 14.08% 15.45%+1.87 +5.3 4
1940-11-30 @ Portadown L 1-345.4 1428 1617 15.45% 14.08% 70.47%-1.87 -5.3 4
1940-12-07 Derry City L 1-269.3 1728 1486 74.26% 13.88% 11.86%+2.31 -12.9 5
1940-12-07 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-169.3 1486 1728 11.86% 13.88% 74.26%-2.31 +12.9 2
1940-12-07 Portadown L 0-830.6 1254 1622 10.69% 13.62% 75.69%-2.78 -15.6 2
1940-12-07 @ Cliftonville W 8-030.6 1622 1254 75.69% 13.62% 10.69%+2.78 +15.6 6
1940-12-07 Glentoran W 1-057.8 1360 1628 17.56% 14.05% 68.39%-1.94 +12.6 2
1940-12-07 @ Glenavon L 0-157.8 1628 1360 68.39% 14.05% 17.56%+1.94 -12.6 5
1940-12-07 Linfield W 5-147.6 1422 1499 39.34% 14.45% 46.21%-0.35 +25.9 6
1940-12-07 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-547.6 1499 1422 46.21% 14.45% 39.34%+0.35 -25.9 4
1940-12-14 Belfast Celtic L 1-642.3 1373 1716 12.16% 13.74% 74.10%-2.56 -9.4 2
1940-12-14 @ Glenavon W 6-142.3 1716 1373 74.10% 13.74% 12.16%+2.56 +9.4 7
1940-12-14 Portadown W 4-262.1 1615 1638 47.00% 14.46% 38.54%+0.10 +10.8 7
1940-12-14 @ Glentoran L 2-462.1 1638 1615 38.54% 14.46% 47.00%-0.10 -10.8 6
1940-12-14 Derry City W 7-249.2 1473 1499 46.50% 14.46% 39.03%+0.07 +22.9 6
1940-12-14 @ Linfield L 2-749.2 1499 1473 39.03% 14.46% 46.50%-0.07 -22.9 2
1940-12-14 Cliftonville W 7-130.8 1448 1238 72.05% 14.00% 13.95%+2.04 +12.7 8
1940-12-14 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-730.8 1238 1448 13.95% 14.00% 72.05%-2.04 -12.7 2
1940-12-21 Lisburn Distillery W 4-041.7 1725 1461 75.58% 13.78% 10.64%+2.49 +8.1 9
1940-12-21 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-441.7 1461 1725 10.64% 13.78% 75.58%-2.49 -8.1 8
1940-12-21 Glentoran L 1-336.6 1226 1626 9.06% 13.46% 77.48%-3.04 -3.2 2
1940-12-21 @ Cliftonville W 3-136.6 1626 1226 77.48% 13.46% 9.06%+3.04 +3.2 9
1940-12-21 Glenavon W 5-347.8 1476 1363 63.56% 14.29% 22.15%+1.23 +6.2 4
1940-12-21 @ Derry City L 3-547.8 1363 1476 22.15% 14.29% 63.56%-1.23 -6.2 2
1940-12-21 Linfield L 1-461.7 1627 1496 65.38% 14.25% 20.37%+1.38 -27.8 6
1940-12-21 @ Portadown W 4-161.7 1496 1627 20.37% 14.25% 65.38%-1.38 +27.8 8
1940-12-25 Cliftonville W 2-135.6 1482 1223 75.34% 13.80% 10.86%+2.45 +2.2 6
1940-12-25 @ Derry City L 1-235.6 1223 1482 10.86% 13.80% 75.34%-2.45 -2.2 2
1940-12-25 Portadown L 1-442.1 1357 1599 19.81% 14.13% 66.05%-1.72 -9.4 2
1940-12-25 @ Glenavon W 4-142.1 1599 1357 66.05% 14.13% 19.81%+1.72 +9.4 8
1940-12-25 Lisburn Distillery W 5-039.7 1629 1453 69.44% 14.12% 16.44%+1.76 +15.1 11
1940-12-25 @ Glentoran L 0-539.7 1453 1629 16.44% 14.12% 69.44%-1.76 -15.1 8
1940-12-25 Belfast Celtic W 1-064.0 1524 1733 22.99% 14.23% 62.78%-1.45 +11.5 10
1940-12-25 @ Linfield L 0-164.0 1733 1524 62.78% 14.23% 22.99%+1.45 -11.5 9
1940-12-26 Glenavon D 1-153.8 1220 1348 32.48% 14.40% 53.12%-0.77 +0.9 3
1940-12-26 @ Cliftonville D 1-153.8 1348 1220 53.12% 14.40% 32.48%+0.77 -0.9 3
1940-12-26 Linfield L 1-265.3 1644 1535 63.19% 14.30% 22.51%+1.20 -11.0 11
1940-12-26 @ Glentoran W 2-165.3 1535 1644 22.51% 14.30% 63.19%-1.20 +11.0 12
1940-12-26 Derry City W 5-251.4 1438 1484 43.57% 14.46% 41.97%-0.10 +16.0 10
1940-12-26 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-551.4 1484 1438 41.97% 14.46% 43.57%+0.10 -16.0 6
1940-12-26 Belfast Celtic D 2-274.8 1609 1721 34.37% 14.42% 51.21%-0.65 +0.5 9
1940-12-26 @ Portadown D 2-274.8 1721 1609 51.21% 14.42% 34.37%+0.65 -0.5 10
1940-12-28 Glentoran L 1-267.5 1721 1633 60.88% 14.35% 24.78%+1.02 -10.6 10
1940-12-28 @ Belfast Celtic W 2-167.5 1633 1721 24.78% 14.35% 60.88%-1.02 +10.6 13
1940-12-28 Portadown D 2-269.2 1469 1609 30.82% 14.38% 54.80%-0.88 +0.8 7
1940-12-28 @ Derry City D 2-269.2 1609 1469 54.80% 14.38% 30.82%+0.88 -0.8 10
1940-12-28 Lisburn Distillery W 2-149.3 1347 1454 35.17% 14.42% 50.41%-0.60 +8.8 5
1940-12-28 @ Glenavon L 1-249.3 1454 1347 50.41% 14.42% 35.17%+0.60 -8.8 10
1940-12-28 Cliftonville W 2-135.6 1546 1221 78.76% 13.49% 7.75%+3.00 +1.6 14
1940-12-28 @ Linfield L 1-235.6 1221 1546 7.75% 13.49% 78.76%-3.00 -1.6 3
1941-01-04 Belfast Celtic L 0-136.5 1220 1710 5.64% 12.94% 81.41%-3.80 -1.2 3
1941-01-04 @ Cliftonville W 1-036.5 1710 1220 81.41% 12.94% 5.64%+3.80 +1.2 12
1941-01-04 Derry City W 5-040.7 1644 1469 69.30% 14.12% 16.57%+1.74 +15.2 15
1941-01-04 @ Glentoran L 0-540.7 1469 1644 16.57% 14.12% 69.30%-1.74 -15.2 7
1941-01-04 Portadown D 2-268.3 1445 1608 28.05% 14.34% 57.61%-1.07 +1.0 11
1941-01-04 @ Lisburn Distillery D 2-268.3 1608 1445 57.61% 14.34% 28.05%+1.07 -1.0 11
1941-01-11 Belfast Celtic L 0-443.7 1454 1712 18.43% 14.08% 67.49%-1.85 -13.6 7
1941-01-11 @ Derry City W 4-043.7 1712 1454 67.49% 14.08% 18.43%+1.85 +13.6 14
1941-01-11 Glenavon W 8-034.9 1659 1356 77.73% 13.60% 8.67%+2.82 +12.8 17
1941-01-11 @ Glentoran L 0-834.9 1356 1659 8.67% 13.60% 77.73%-2.82 -12.8 5
1941-01-11 Lisburn Distillery D 1-162.8 1548 1446 62.44% 14.32% 23.24%+1.14 -1.7 15
1941-01-11 @ Linfield D 1-162.8 1446 1548 23.24% 14.32% 62.44%-1.14 +1.7 12
1941-01-11 Cliftonville W 5-132.1 1607 1218 81.33% 13.14% 5.53%+3.53 +3.5 13
1941-01-11 @ Portadown L 1-532.1 1218 1607 5.53% 13.14% 81.33%-3.53 -3.5 3
1941-01-25 Glenavon W 13-037.6 1725 1343 81.09% 13.18% 5.73%+3.47 +13.5 16
1941-01-25 @ Belfast Celtic L 0-1337.6 1343 1725 5.73% 13.18% 81.09%-3.47 -13.5 5
1941-01-25 Lisburn Distillery L 1-732.6 1215 1448 20.68% 14.16% 65.16%-1.65 -18.3 3
1941-01-25 @ Cliftonville W 7-132.6 1448 1215 65.16% 14.16% 20.68%+1.65 +18.3 14
1941-01-25 Linfield L 0-442.8 1440 1546 35.34% 14.43% 50.24%-0.59 -24.6 7
1941-01-25 @ Derry City W 4-042.8 1546 1440 50.24% 14.43% 35.34%+0.59 +24.6 17
1941-01-25 Glentoran W 6-573.8 1611 1672 41.50% 14.46% 44.04%-0.22 +7.1 15
1941-01-25 @ Portadown L 5-673.8 1672 1611 44.04% 14.46% 41.50%+0.22 -7.1 17
1941-02-01 Derry City W 6-142.5 1329 1416 37.96% 14.44% 47.60%-0.43 +32.5 7
1941-02-01 @ Glenavon L 1-642.5 1416 1329 47.60% 14.44% 37.96%+0.43 -32.5 7
1941-02-01 Cliftonville W 6-235.8 1665 1197 83.75% 12.64% 3.61%+4.19 +1.9 19
1941-02-01 @ Glentoran L 2-635.8 1197 1665 3.61% 12.64% 83.75%-4.19 -1.9 3
1941-02-01 Portadown W 2-054.6 1571 1618 43.49% 14.46% 42.05%-0.10 +15.1 19
1941-02-01 @ Linfield L 0-254.6 1618 1571 42.05% 14.46% 43.49%+0.10 -15.1 15
1941-02-01 Belfast Celtic L 2-750.0 1466 1739 17.14% 14.03% 68.83%-1.98 -10.9 14
1941-02-01 @ Lisburn Distillery W 7-250.0 1739 1466 68.83% 14.03% 17.14%+1.98 +10.9 18
1941-02-08 Linfield W 5-255.3 1750 1586 68.38% 14.16% 17.46%+1.65 +7.3 20
1941-02-08 @ Belfast Celtic L 2-555.3 1586 1750 17.46% 14.16% 68.38%-1.65 -7.3 19
1941-02-08 Derry City L 2-540.0 1195 1383 25.18% 14.28% 60.54%-1.28 -10.2 3
1941-02-08 @ Cliftonville W 5-240.0 1383 1195 60.54% 14.28% 25.18%+1.28 +10.2 9
1941-02-08 Glentoran W 6-367.7 1455 1667 22.73% 14.22% 63.04%-1.47 +21.5 16
1941-02-08 @ Lisburn Distillery L 3-667.7 1667 1455 63.04% 14.22% 22.73%+1.47 -21.5 19
1941-02-08 Glenavon W 8-034.1 1603 1362 74.17% 13.88% 11.95%+2.30 +17.4 17
1941-02-08 @ Portadown L 0-834.1 1362 1603 11.95% 13.88% 74.17%-2.30 -17.4 7
1941-02-15 Portadown W 3-154.0 1757 1620 65.91% 14.24% 19.85%+1.43 +6.7 22
1941-02-15 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-354.0 1620 1757 19.85% 14.24% 65.91%-1.43 -6.7 17
1941-02-15 Lisburn Distillery L 1-444.9 1393 1477 38.41% 14.45% 47.14%-0.40 -17.1 9
1941-02-15 @ Derry City W 4-144.9 1477 1393 47.14% 14.45% 38.41%+0.40 +17.1 18
1941-02-15 Cliftonville W 6-340.4 1345 1184 68.06% 14.17% 17.77%+1.62 +6.8 9
1941-02-15 @ Glenavon L 3-640.4 1184 1345 17.77% 14.17% 68.06%-1.62 -6.8 3
1941-02-15 Glentoran D 3-377.1 1578 1645 40.68% 14.46% 44.86%-0.27 +0.1 20
1941-02-15 @ Linfield D 3-377.1 1645 1578 44.86% 14.46% 40.68%+0.27 -0.1 20
1941-03-01 Cliftonville W 3-136.8 1764 1178 86.28% 11.81% 1.91%+5.17 +0.7 24
1941-03-01 @ Belfast Celtic L 1-336.8 1178 1764 1.91% 11.81% 86.28%-5.17 -0.7 3
1941-03-01 Glentoran D 2-267.3 1376 1645 17.45% 14.04% 68.50%-1.95 +1.7 10
1941-03-01 @ Derry City D 2-267.3 1645 1376 68.50% 14.04% 17.45%+1.95 -1.7 21
1941-03-01 Glenavon W 6-136.8 1579 1351 73.26% 13.94% 12.80%+2.18 +9.9 22
1941-03-01 @ Linfield L 1-636.8 1351 1579 12.80% 13.94% 73.26%-2.18 -9.9 9
1941-03-01 Lisburn Distillery D 1-166.9 1614 1494 64.30% 14.28% 21.42%+1.29 -1.9 18
1941-03-01 @ Portadown D 1-166.9 1494 1614 21.42% 14.28% 64.30%-1.29 +1.9 19
1941-03-08 Derry City W 8-243.5 1764 1378 81.23% 13.15% 5.62%+3.51 +4.3 26
1941-03-08 @ Belfast Celtic L 2-843.5 1378 1764 5.62% 13.15% 81.23%-3.51 -4.3 10
1941-03-08 Portadown L 2-537.0 1177 1612 7.58% 13.28% 79.14%-3.33 -3.2 3
1941-03-08 @ Cliftonville W 5-237.0 1612 1177 79.14% 13.28% 7.58%+3.33 +3.2 20
1941-03-08 Glentoran D 1-162.6 1341 1644 14.87% 13.92% 71.21%-2.23 +2.6 10
1941-03-08 @ Glenavon D 1-162.6 1644 1341 71.21% 13.92% 14.87%+2.23 -2.6 22
1941-03-08 Linfield L 2-358.4 1496 1588 37.06% 14.44% 48.50%-0.48 -6.4 19
1941-03-08 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-258.4 1588 1496 48.50% 14.44% 37.06%+0.48 +6.4 24
1941-03-22 Lisburn Distillery W 3-254.5 1768 1489 76.46% 13.71% 9.83%+2.62 +1.9 28
1941-03-22 @ Belfast Celtic L 2-354.5 1489 1768 9.83% 13.71% 76.46%-2.62 -1.9 19
1941-03-22 Glentoran L 0-428.2 1174 1641 6.39% 13.09% 80.52%-3.60 -4.9 3
1941-03-22 @ Cliftonville W 4-028.2 1641 1174 80.52% 13.09% 6.39%+3.60 +4.9 24
1941-03-22 Glenavon L 2-352.6 1374 1344 53.99% 14.43% 31.58%+0.54 -8.9 10
1941-03-22 @ Derry City W 3-252.6 1344 1374 31.58% 14.43% 53.99%-0.54 +8.9 12
1941-03-22 Linfield W 2-157.0 1615 1595 52.74% 14.44% 32.82%+0.46 +6.1 22
1941-03-22 @ Portadown L 1-257.0 1595 1615 32.82% 14.44% 52.74%-0.46 -6.1 24
1941-03-26 Linfield L 3-443.0 1169 1589 8.19% 13.36% 78.45%-3.21 -1.5 3
1941-03-26 @ Cliftonville W 4-343.0 1589 1169 78.45% 13.36% 8.19%+3.21 +1.5 26
1941-03-26 Portadown W 7-463.6 1646 1621 53.36% 14.44% 32.21%+0.50 +11.2 26
1941-03-26 @ Glentoran L 4-763.6 1621 1646 32.21% 14.44% 53.36%-0.50 -11.2 22
1941-03-27 Glenavon D 2-261.0 1487 1353 65.70% 14.24% 20.06%+1.41 -1.5 20
1941-03-27 @ Lisburn Distillery D 2-261.0 1353 1487 20.06% 14.24% 65.70%-1.41 +1.5 13
1941-03-29 Cliftonville W 2-135.5 1365 1167 71.12% 14.05% 14.83%+1.94 +2.9 12
1941-03-29 @ Derry City L 1-235.5 1167 1365 14.83% 14.05% 71.12%-1.94 -2.9 3
1941-03-29 Portadown L 0-436.9 1355 1610 18.61% 14.09% 67.30%-1.84 -13.8 13
1941-03-29 @ Glenavon W 4-036.9 1610 1355 67.30% 14.09% 18.61%+1.84 +13.8 24
1941-03-29 Lisburn Distillery W 6-145.5 1657 1486 69.02% 14.14% 16.84%+1.72 +12.8 28
1941-03-29 @ Glentoran L 1-645.5 1486 1657 16.84% 14.14% 69.02%-1.72 -12.8 20
1941-03-29 Belfast Celtic L 0-252.5 1590 1770 26.14% 14.30% 59.56%-1.21 -9.9 26
1941-03-29 @ Linfield W 2-052.5 1770 1590 59.56% 14.30% 26.14%+1.21 +9.9 30
1941-04-05 Portadown L 0-437.9 1368 1624 18.57% 14.09% 67.34%-1.84 -13.7 12
1941-04-05 @ Derry City W 4-037.9 1624 1368 67.34% 14.09% 18.57%+1.84 +13.7 26
1941-04-12 Glentoran W 8-253.3 1780 1670 63.33% 14.30% 22.37%+1.21 +16.3 32
1941-04-12 @ Belfast Celtic L 2-853.3 1670 1780 22.37% 14.30% 63.33%-1.21 -16.3 28
1941-04-12 Lisburn Distillery L 0-141.3 1341 1473 31.88% 14.39% 53.73%-0.81 -6.3 13
1941-04-12 @ Glenavon W 1-041.3 1473 1341 53.73% 14.39% 31.88%+0.81 +6.3 22
1941-04-12 Cliftonville W 3-132.8 1580 1164 82.24% 12.98% 4.79%+3.75 +1.7 28
1941-04-12 @ Linfield L 1-332.8 1164 1580 4.79% 12.98% 82.24%-3.75 -1.7 3
1941-04-12 Derry City W 5-244.0 1637 1354 76.68% 13.70% 9.63%+2.65 +4.1 28
1941-04-12 @ Portadown L 2-544.0 1354 1637 9.63% 13.70% 76.68%-2.65 -4.1 12
1941-04-14 Linfield D 1-160.1 1334 1582 19.30% 14.11% 66.59%-1.77 +2.1 14
1941-04-14 @ Glenavon D 1-160.1 1582 1334 66.59% 14.11% 19.30%+1.77 -2.1 29
1941-04-14 Derry City W 4-035.2 1654 1350 77.73% 13.60% 8.67%+2.82 +6.6 30
1941-04-14 @ Glentoran L 0-435.2 1350 1654 8.67% 13.60% 77.73%-2.82 -6.6 12
1941-04-14 Portadown L 1-253.2 1479 1641 28.19% 14.34% 57.47%-1.06 -5.3 22
1941-04-14 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-153.2 1641 1479 57.47% 14.34% 28.19%+1.06 +5.3 30
1941-04-15 Belfast Celtic L 0-144.3 1343 1797 6.88% 13.17% 79.95%-3.48 -1.5 12
1941-04-15 @ Derry City W 1-044.3 1797 1343 79.95% 13.17% 6.88%+3.48 +1.5 34
1941-04-15 Glenavon L 1-263.8 1660 1337 78.69% 13.50% 7.81%+2.98 -13.7 30
1941-04-15 @ Glentoran W 2-163.8 1337 1660 7.81% 13.50% 78.69%-2.98 +13.7 16
1941-04-15 Lisburn Distillery L 1-360.0 1580 1474 62.87% 14.31% 22.82%+1.17 -18.9 29
1941-04-15 @ Linfield W 3-160.0 1474 1580 22.82% 14.31% 62.87%-1.17 +18.9 24
1941-04-15 Cliftonville W 4-237.4 1647 1163 84.15% 12.54% 3.32%+4.32 +1.0 32
1941-04-15 @ Portadown L 2-437.4 1163 1647 3.32% 12.54% 84.15%-4.32 -1.0 3
1941-04-19 Glenavon W 5-247.4 1798 1350 83.19% 12.78% 4.04%+4.02 +1.7 36
1941-04-19 @ Belfast Celtic L 2-547.4 1350 1798 4.04% 12.78% 83.19%-4.02 -1.7 16
1941-04-19 Lisburn Distillery L 1-334.3 1162 1493 12.89% 13.80% 73.32%-2.47 -4.4 3
1941-04-19 @ Cliftonville W 3-134.3 1493 1162 73.32% 13.80% 12.89%+2.47 +4.4 26
1941-04-19 Linfield D 2-262.9 1342 1561 21.99% 14.20% 63.81%-1.54 +1.4 13
1941-04-19 @ Derry City D 2-262.9 1561 1342 63.81% 14.20% 21.99%+1.54 -1.4 30
1941-04-19 Glentoran W 4-366.7 1648 1646 50.27% 14.45% 35.28%+0.30 +6.0 34
1941-04-19 @ Portadown L 3-466.7 1646 1648 35.28% 14.45% 50.27%-0.30 -6.0 30
1941-04-28 Belfast Celtic L 1-337.6 1157 1800 2.49% 11.91% 85.60%-5.06 -0.9 3
1941-04-28 @ Cliftonville W 3-137.6 1800 1157 85.60% 11.91% 2.49%+5.06 +0.9 38
1941-05-02 Belfast Celtic D 3-379.5 1640 1801 28.42% 14.34% 57.23%-1.04 +0.8 31
1941-05-02 @ Glentoran D 3-379.5 1801 1640 57.23% 14.34% 28.42%+1.04 -0.8 39
1941-05-03 Derry City L 3-455.1 1349 1343 50.80% 14.45% 34.75%+0.34 -8.2 16
1941-05-03 @ Glenavon W 4-355.1 1343 1349 34.75% 14.45% 50.80%-0.34 +8.2 15
1941-05-03 Cliftonville W 6-338.6 1641 1156 84.17% 12.53% 3.30%+4.33 +1.3 33
1941-05-03 @ Glentoran L 3-638.6 1156 1641 3.30% 12.53% 84.17%-4.33 -1.3 3
1941-05-03 Portadown L 3-465.8 1560 1654 36.89% 14.44% 48.67%-0.49 -6.2 30
1941-05-03 @ Linfield W 4-365.8 1654 1560 48.67% 14.44% 36.89%+0.49 +6.2 36
1941-05-03 Belfast Celtic D 0-069.1 1497 1800 14.83% 13.91% 71.26%-2.23 +2.9 27
1941-05-03 @ Lisburn Distillery D 0-069.1 1800 1497 71.26% 13.91% 14.83%+2.23 -2.9 40
1941-05-07 Belfast Celtic L 0-340.5 1340 1797 6.76% 13.15% 80.09%-3.51 -3.9 16
1941-05-07 @ Glenavon W 3-040.5 1797 1340 80.09% 13.15% 6.76%+3.51 +4.0 42
1941-05-10 Linfield L 2-474.0 1801 1553 74.59% 13.85% 11.56%+2.35 -20.1 42
1941-05-10 @ Belfast Celtic W 4-274.0 1553 1801 11.56% 13.85% 74.59%-2.35 +20.1 32
1941-05-10 Derry City L 4-548.7 1155 1351 24.34% 14.26% 61.40%-1.35 -4.2 3
1941-05-10 @ Cliftonville W 5-448.7 1351 1155 61.40% 14.26% 24.34%+1.35 +4.2 17
1941-05-10 Glentoran L 2-358.3 1500 1642 30.59% 14.37% 55.03%-0.90 -5.4 27
1941-05-10 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-258.3 1642 1500 55.03% 14.37% 30.59%+0.90 +5.4 35
1941-05-10 Glenavon W 3-141.2 1660 1336 78.69% 13.50% 7.81%+2.98 +2.7 38
1941-05-10 @ Portadown L 1-341.2 1336 1660 7.81% 13.50% 78.69%-2.98 -2.7 16
1941-05-12 Cliftonville W 5-129.7 1495 1151 79.59% 13.39% 7.02%+3.15 +4.5 29
1941-05-12 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-529.7 1151 1495 7.02% 13.39% 79.59%-3.15 -4.5 3
1941-05-14 Derry City L 1-259.6 1574 1356 72.61% 13.97% 13.42%+2.10 -12.6 32
1941-05-14 @ Linfield W 2-159.6 1356 1574 13.42% 13.97% 72.61%-2.10 +12.6 19
1941-05-17 Linfield W 3-153.2 1648 1561 60.82% 14.35% 24.83%+1.01 +8.2 37
1941-05-17 @ Glentoran L 1-353.2 1561 1648 24.83% 14.35% 60.82%-1.01 -8.2 32
1941-05-17 Derry City W 6-033.0 1499 1368 65.37% 14.25% 20.38%+1.38 +22.0 31
1941-05-17 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-633.0 1368 1499 20.38% 14.25% 65.37%-1.38 -22.0 19
1941-05-29 Glenavon W 3-252.7 1146 1334 25.33% 14.28% 60.39%-1.27 +9.9 5
1941-05-29 @ Cliftonville L 2-352.7 1334 1146 60.39% 14.28% 25.33%+1.27 -9.9 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1941-04-15 7.81% Glenavon 1337 2 @ Glentoran 1660 1
2 1941-05-10 11.56% Linfield 1553 4 @ Belfast Celtic 1801 2
3 1940-12-07 11.86% Derry City 1486 2 @ Belfast Celtic 1728 1
4 1941-05-14 13.42% Derry City 1356 2 @ Linfield 1574 1
5 1940-12-07 17.56% @ Glenavon 1360 1 Glentoran 1628 0
6 1940-11-16 18.52% Lisburn Distillery 1385 2 @ Derry City 1537 1
7 1940-11-16 19.43% Cliftonville 1269 2 @ Glenavon 1411 1
8 1940-12-21 20.37% Linfield 1496 4 @ Portadown 1627 1
9 1940-12-26 22.51% Linfield 1535 2 @ Glentoran 1644 1
10 1941-02-08 22.73% @ Lisburn Distillery 1455 6 Glentoran 1667 3
11 1941-04-15 22.82% Lisburn Distillery 1474 3 @ Linfield 1580 1
12 1940-12-25 22.99% @ Linfield 1524 1 Belfast Celtic 1733 0
13 1940-12-28 24.78% Glentoran 1633 2 @ Belfast Celtic 1721 1
14 1941-05-29 25.33% @ Cliftonville 1146 3 Glenavon 1334 2
15 1941-03-22 31.58% Glenavon 1344 3 @ Derry City 1374 2
16 1941-05-03 34.75% Derry City 1343 4 @ Glenavon 1349 3
17 1940-12-28 35.17% @ Glenavon 1347 2 Lisburn Distillery 1454 1
18 1941-02-01 37.96% @ Glenavon 1329 6 Derry City 1416 1
19 1940-12-07 39.34% @ Lisburn Distillery 1422 5 Linfield 1499 1
20 1941-01-25 41.50% @ Portadown 1611 6 Glentoran 1672 5

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-02-01 32.52 @ Glenavon 6 1329 37.96% Derry City 1 1416 47.60% 14.44%
2 1940-11-23 30.63 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1397 49.82% Glenavon 0 1399 35.73% 14.46%
3 1940-11-16 28.84 @ Belfast Celtic 6 1696 58.13% Portadown 0 1633 27.48% 14.39%
4 1940-12-21 27.80 Linfield 4 1496 20.37% @ Portadown 1 1627 65.38% 14.25%
5 1940-11-30 25.90 Glentoran 4 1602 48.10% @ Derry City 0 1512 37.46% 14.44%
6 1940-12-07 25.87 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1422 39.34% Linfield 1 1499 46.21% 14.45%
7 1941-01-25 24.61 Linfield 4 1546 50.24% @ Derry City 0 1440 35.34% 14.43%
8 1940-12-14 22.91 @ Linfield 7 1473 46.50% Derry City 2 1499 39.03% 14.46%
9 1940-11-23 22.55 Linfield 5 1468 60.38% @ Cliftonville 0 1281 25.34% 14.28%
10 1941-05-17 21.97 @ Lisburn Distillery 6 1499 65.37% Derry City 0 1368 20.38% 14.25%
11 1941-02-08 21.48 @ Lisburn Distillery 6 1455 22.73% Glentoran 3 1667 63.04% 14.22%
12 1941-05-10 20.12 Linfield 4 1553 11.56% @ Belfast Celtic 2 1801 74.59% 13.85%
13 1941-04-15 18.90 Lisburn Distillery 3 1474 22.82% @ Linfield 1 1580 62.87% 14.31%
14 1941-01-25 18.33 Lisburn Distillery 7 1448 65.16% @ Cliftonville 1 1215 20.68% 14.16%
15 1941-02-08 17.44 @ Portadown 8 1603 74.17% Glenavon 0 1362 11.95% 13.88%
16 1941-02-15 17.08 Lisburn Distillery 4 1477 47.14% @ Derry City 1 1393 38.41% 14.45%
17 1941-04-12 16.35 @ Belfast Celtic 8 1780 63.33% Glentoran 2 1670 22.37% 14.30%
18 1940-11-16 16.15 Glentoran 4 1585 49.57% @ Linfield 1 1484 36.00% 14.43%
19 1940-12-26 15.96 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1438 43.57% Derry City 2 1484 41.97% 14.46%
20 1940-12-07 15.60 Portadown 8 1622 75.69% @ Cliftonville 0 1254 10.69% 13.62%
21 1941-01-04 15.25 @ Glentoran 5 1644 69.30% Derry City 0 1469 16.57% 14.12%
22 1940-12-25 15.13 @ Glentoran 5 1629 69.44% Lisburn Distillery 0 1453 16.44% 14.12%
23 1941-02-01 15.08 @ Linfield 2 1571 43.49% Portadown 0 1618 42.05% 14.46%
24 1941-03-29 13.77 Portadown 4 1610 67.30% @ Glenavon 0 1355 18.61% 14.09%
25 1941-04-05 13.73 Portadown 4 1624 67.34% @ Derry City 0 1368 18.57% 14.09%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-05-02 79.5 @ Glentoran 3 1640 28.42% Belfast Celtic 3 1801 57.23% 14.34%
2 1941-02-15 77.1 @ Linfield 3 1578 40.68% Glentoran 3 1645 44.86% 14.46%
3 1940-12-26 74.8 @ Portadown 2 1609 34.37% Belfast Celtic 2 1721 51.21% 14.42%
4 1941-05-10 74.0 Linfield 4 1553 11.56% @ Belfast Celtic 2 1801 74.59% 13.85%
5 1941-01-25 73.8 @ Portadown 6 1611 41.50% Glentoran 5 1672 44.04% 14.46%
6 1940-11-23 71.5 @ Glentoran 1 1601 32.95% Belfast Celtic 1 1725 52.64% 14.40%
7 1940-12-07 69.3 Derry City 2 1486 11.86% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1728 74.26% 13.88%
8 1940-12-28 69.2 @ Derry City 2 1469 30.82% Portadown 2 1609 54.80% 14.38%
9 1941-05-03 69.1 @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1497 14.83% Belfast Celtic 0 1800 71.26% 13.91%
10 1941-01-04 68.3 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1445 28.05% Portadown 2 1608 57.61% 14.34%
11 1941-02-08 67.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 6 1455 22.73% Glentoran 3 1667 63.04% 14.22%
12 1940-12-28 67.5 Glentoran 2 1633 24.78% @ Belfast Celtic 1 1721 60.88% 14.35%
13 1941-03-01 67.3 @ Derry City 2 1376 17.45% Glentoran 2 1645 68.50% 14.04%
14 1941-03-01 66.9 @ Portadown 1 1614 64.30% Lisburn Distillery 1 1494 21.42% 14.28%
15 1941-04-19 66.7 @ Portadown 4 1648 50.27% Glentoran 3 1646 35.28% 14.45%
16 1941-05-03 65.8 Portadown 4 1654 48.67% @ Linfield 3 1560 36.89% 14.44%
17 1940-12-26 65.3 Linfield 2 1535 22.51% @ Glentoran 1 1644 63.19% 14.30%
18 1940-12-25 64.0 @ Linfield 1 1524 22.99% Belfast Celtic 0 1733 62.78% 14.23%
19 1941-04-15 63.8 Glenavon 2 1337 7.81% @ Glentoran 1 1660 78.69% 13.50%
20 1941-03-26 63.6 @ Glentoran 7 1646 53.36% Portadown 4 1621 32.21% 14.44%
21 1941-04-19 62.9 @ Derry City 2 1342 21.99% Linfield 2 1561 63.81% 14.20%
22 1941-01-11 62.8 @ Linfield 1 1548 62.44% Lisburn Distillery 1 1446 23.24% 14.32%
23 1941-03-08 62.6 @ Glenavon 1 1341 14.87% Glentoran 1 1644 71.21% 13.92%
24 1940-12-14 62.1 @ Glentoran 4 1615 47.00% Portadown 2 1638 38.54% 14.46%
25 1940-12-21 61.7 Linfield 4 1496 20.37% @ Portadown 1 1627 65.38% 14.25%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1941-03-22 28.2 Glentoran 4 1641 80.52% @ Cliftonville 0 1174 6.39% 13.09%
2 1941-05-12 29.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1495 79.59% Cliftonville 1 1151 7.02% 13.39%
3 1940-12-07 30.6 Portadown 8 1622 75.69% @ Cliftonville 0 1254 10.69% 13.62%
4 1940-12-14 30.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 7 1448 72.05% Cliftonville 1 1238 13.95% 14.00%
5 1940-11-23 32.0 Linfield 5 1468 60.38% @ Cliftonville 0 1281 25.34% 14.28%
6 1941-01-11 32.1 @ Portadown 5 1607 81.33% Cliftonville 1 1218 5.53% 13.14%
7 1941-01-25 32.6 Lisburn Distillery 7 1448 65.16% @ Cliftonville 1 1215 20.68% 14.16%
8 1941-04-12 32.8 @ Linfield 3 1580 82.24% Cliftonville 1 1164 4.79% 12.98%
9 1941-05-17 33.0 @ Lisburn Distillery 6 1499 65.37% Derry City 0 1368 20.38% 14.25%
10 1941-02-08 34.1 @ Portadown 8 1603 74.17% Glenavon 0 1362 11.95% 13.88%
11 1940-11-30 34.2 @ Belfast Celtic 9 1724 83.68% Cliftonville 1 1258 3.66% 12.66%
12 1941-04-19 34.3 Lisburn Distillery 3 1493 73.32% @ Cliftonville 1 1162 12.89% 13.80%
13 1941-01-11 34.9 @ Glentoran 8 1659 77.73% Glenavon 0 1356 8.67% 13.60%
14 1941-04-14 35.2 @ Glentoran 4 1654 77.73% Derry City 0 1350 8.67% 13.60%
15 1941-03-29 35.5 @ Derry City 2 1365 71.12% Cliftonville 1 1167 14.83% 14.05%
16 1940-12-25 35.6 @ Derry City 2 1482 75.34% Cliftonville 1 1223 10.86% 13.80%
17 1940-12-28 35.6 @ Linfield 2 1546 78.76% Cliftonville 1 1221 7.75% 13.49%
18 1941-02-01 35.8 @ Glentoran 6 1665 83.75% Cliftonville 2 1197 3.61% 12.64%
19 1940-11-23 36.1 @ Lisburn Distillery 5 1397 49.82% Glenavon 0 1399 35.73% 14.46%
20 1941-01-04 36.5 Belfast Celtic 1 1710 81.41% @ Cliftonville 0 1220 5.64% 12.94%
21 1940-12-21 36.6 Glentoran 3 1626 77.48% @ Cliftonville 1 1226 9.06% 13.46%
22 1941-03-01 36.8 @ Belfast Celtic 3 1764 86.28% Cliftonville 1 1178 1.91% 11.81%
23 1941-03-01 36.8 @ Linfield 6 1579 73.26% Glenavon 1 1351 12.80% 13.94%
24 1941-03-29 36.9 Portadown 4 1610 67.30% @ Glenavon 0 1355 18.61% 14.09%
25 1941-03-08 37.0 Portadown 5 1612 79.14% @ Cliftonville 2 1177 7.58% 13.28%