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1953-54 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Bangor

6.55 points above expected

22 points · 15.45 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Portadown

5.75 points below expected

12 points · 17.75 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Linfield 22 15 6 1 36 56 26 +30 32.34 +3.66
2 Glentoran 22 17 1 4 35 67 34 +33 30.55 +4.45
3 Glenavon 22 13 2 7 28 68 45 +23 25.23 +2.77
4 Ballymena United 22 11 5 6 27 47 40 +7 25.88 +1.12
5 Crusaders 22 11 4 7 26 60 49 +11 21.67 +4.33
6 Coleraine 22 8 6 8 22 49 52 -3 20.73 +1.27
7 Bangor 22 10 2 10 22 34 42 -8 15.45 +6.55
8 Lisburn Distillery 22 8 5 9 21 45 36 +9 24.81 -3.81
9 Ards 22 6 2 14 14 32 53 -21 18.53 -4.53
10 Derry City 22 5 3 14 13 36 50 -14 17.82 -4.82
11 Portadown 22 5 2 15 12 34 60 -26 17.75 -5.75
12 Cliftonville 22 3 2 17 8 26 67 -41 13.24 -5.24

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bangor 22 15.45 +6.55
2 Glentoran 35 30.55 +4.45
3 Crusaders 26 21.67 +4.33
4 Linfield 36 32.34 +3.66
5 Glenavon 28 25.23 +2.77

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Portadown 12 17.75 -5.75
2 Cliftonville 8 13.24 -5.24
3 Derry City 13 17.82 -4.82
4 Ards 14 18.53 -4.53
5 Lisburn Distillery 21 24.81 -3.81

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Crusaders 7 Jan 23 – Mar 20 1 in 181
2 Bangor 3 Dec 19 – Dec 26 1 in 151
3 Ballymena United 4 Nov 28 – Dec 19 1 in 34
4 Coleraine 3 Mar 20 – Apr 10 1 in 18
5 Linfield 5 Dec 12 – Dec 28 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 14 Dec 25 – Apr 3 1 in 622
2 Ballymena United 3 Mar 13 – Apr 3 1 in 53
3 Glentoran 2 Dec 19 – Dec 25 1 in 39
4 Portadown 5 Nov 28 – Dec 25 1 in 25
5 Ards 6 Feb 27 – Apr 17 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Linfield 19 Dec 12 – Apr 20 1 in 90
2 Crusaders 8 Jan 16 – Mar 20 1 in 84
3 Ballymena United 11 Nov 28 – Jan 23 1 in 76
4 Bangor 3 Dec 19 – Dec 26 1 in 22
5 Coleraine 5 Feb 27 – Apr 10 1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 16 Dec 25 – Apr 17 1 in 35
2 Lisburn Distillery 5 Dec 25 – Jan 16 1 in 22
3 Ballymena United 4 Feb 27 – Apr 3 1 in 18
4 Portadown 7 Nov 21 – Dec 26 1 in 16
5 Coleraine 6 Nov 21 – Dec 24 1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Linfield 1743 36 +25 9 7.5 +1.5
Glentoran 1723 35 +46 10 7.7 +2.3
Glenavon 1602 28 +9 6 6.6 -0.6
Ballymena United 1546 27 -34 5 5.0 -0.0
Crusaders 1521 26 -65 5 5.7 -0.7
Coleraine 1575 22 +97 6 4.9 +1.1
Bangor 1410 22 -3 5 4.1 +0.9
Lisburn Distillery 1527 21 -23 4 5.9 -1.9
Ards 1373 14 -25 2 3.3 -1.3
Derry City 1389 13 -11 3 4.1 -1.1
Portadown 1358 12 -19 2 3.3 -1.3
Cliftonville 1234 8 +2 3 1.8 +1.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BU BAN CLI COL CRU DC GLE GLE LIN LD POR
Ards —
0-0-2
2.19
1-0-1
3.28
1-0-1
3.48
0-1-1
2.51
1-0-1
2.37
1-0-1
2.98
0-0-2
1.84
0-0-2
1.35
0-0-2
1.15
1-1-0
1.97
1-0-1
2.89
Ballymena United
2-0-0
3.50
 —
1-0-1
4.34
2-0-0
4.32
2-0-0
2.86
0-1-1
3.00
2-0-0
4.03
1-1-0
3.07
0-0-2
2.34
0-2-0
2.15
0-1-1
3.54
1-0-1
3.68
Bangor
1-0-1
2.41
1-0-1
1.35
 —
1-0-1
3.04
1-1-0
2.03
1-0-1
1.89
1-0-1
2.44
0-0-2
1.77
1-0-1
0.83
0-1-1
0.98
1-0-1
1.66
2-0-0
2.76
Cliftonville
1-0-1
2.21
0-0-2
1.37
1-0-1
2.64
 —
0-0-2
1.99
0-0-2
1.82
0-1-1
2.35
0-0-2
1.20
0-0-2
0.78
0-1-1
0.79
1-0-1
1.03
0-0-2
2.25
Coleraine
1-1-0
3.17
0-0-2
2.82
0-1-1
3.66
2-0-0
3.69
 —
1-1-0
2.70
1-0-1
3.10
1-0-1
1.86
0-1-1
1.66
0-1-1
1.54
1-0-1
2.32
1-1-0
3.24
Crusaders
1-0-1
3.31
1-1-0
2.68
1-0-1
3.79
2-0-0
3.86
0-1-1
2.98
 —
2-0-0
3.50
1-0-1
2.33
0-0-2
1.79
0-1-1
1.45
1-1-0
2.41
2-0-0
3.23
Derry City
1-0-1
2.69
0-0-2
1.65
1-0-1
3.23
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
2.58
0-0-2
2.18
 —
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.45
0-0-2
0.96
0-1-1
1.96
1-0-1
2.96
Glenavon
2-0-0
3.85
0-1-1
2.61
2-0-0
3.91
2-0-0
4.49
1-0-1
3.82
1-0-1
3.35
1-1-0
3.79
 —
1-0-1
2.31
1-0-1
1.94
0-0-2
3.15
2-0-0
3.88
Glentoran
2-0-0
4.34
2-0-0
3.34
1-0-1
4.86
2-0-0
4.92
1-1-0
4.02
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
4.24
1-0-1
3.37
 —
0-0-2
2.83
2-0-0
3.63
2-0-0
4.47
Linfield
2-0-0
4.54
0-2-0
3.53
1-1-0
4.72
1-1-0
4.91
1-1-0
4.15
1-1-0
4.23
2-0-0
4.73
1-0-1
3.75
2-0-0
2.85
 —
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
4.67
Lisburn Distillery
0-1-1
3.71
1-1-0
2.14
1-0-1
4.03
1-0-1
4.66
1-0-1
3.36
0-1-1
3.27
1-1-0
3.72
2-0-0
2.53
0-0-2
2.05
0-0-2
1.79
 —
1-1-0
3.83
Portadown
1-0-1
2.79
1-0-1
2.01
0-0-2
2.92
2-0-0
3.44
0-1-1
2.44
0-0-2
2.45
1-0-1
2.72
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-2
1.22
0-0-2
1.02
0-1-1
1.86
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.75 +5.5
Allowed 0.75 -6.8
Differential 0.93 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
00.76%2.65%4.92%1.89%3.03%0.76%14.02%
12.65%9.09%5.68%3.79%3.41%3.41%28.03%
24.92%5.68%2.27%5.30%3.03%1.89%23.11%
31.89%3.79%5.30%2.27%0.38%1.89%15.53%
43.03%3.41%3.03%0.38%0.76%0.38%10.98%
5+0.76%3.41%1.89%1.89%0.38%—8.33%
Total14.02%28.03%23.11%15.53%10.98%8.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.10 2.10 +0.00
SD 1.56 1.56 2.39
CV 0.74 0.74 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%13.64%—9.09%—27.27%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%31.82%
24.55%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—18.18%
3——9.09%—4.55%—13.64%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+———————
Total9.09%13.64%40.91%9.09%22.73%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 2.41 -0.95
SD 1.30 1.47 2.08
CV 0.89 0.61 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————4.55%—4.55%
1—9.09%9.09%—13.64%—31.82%
213.64%13.64%4.55%———31.82%
34.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
4————4.55%—4.55%
5+—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
Total18.18%31.82%22.73%4.55%22.73%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.14 1.82 +0.32
SD 1.32 1.44 2.15
CV 0.62 0.79 —
Max 5 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——13.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
19.09%9.09%—9.09%——27.27%
24.55%9.09%—4.55%4.55%—22.73%
34.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%27.27%22.73%18.18%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 1.91 -0.36
SD 1.41 1.54 2.44
CV 0.91 0.81 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
1—9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%18.18%40.91%
2—4.55%—9.09%4.55%4.55%22.73%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total—18.18%27.27%18.18%13.64%22.73%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 3.05 -1.86
SD 1.05 1.62 1.93
CV 0.89 0.53 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————4.55%—4.55%
1—22.73%4.55%—4.55%13.64%45.45%
2—4.55%——4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%—9.09%4.55%——18.18%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
Total9.09%36.36%18.18%4.55%13.64%18.18%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 2.36 -0.14
SD 1.72 1.81 2.98
CV 0.77 0.77 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—————4.55%4.55%
1—9.09%—9.09%——18.18%
24.55%4.55%—4.55%4.55%—18.18%
3—4.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%22.73%
413.64%4.55%9.09%——4.55%31.82%
5+———4.55%——4.55%
Total18.18%22.73%13.64%27.27%4.55%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.73 2.23 +0.50
SD 1.35 1.74 2.46
CV 0.50 0.78 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
1—9.09%9.09%9.09%—4.55%31.82%
24.55%——13.64%—4.55%22.73%
3—4.55%4.55%——4.55%13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total9.09%22.73%27.27%27.27%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 2.27 -0.64
SD 1.50 1.45 2.06
CV 0.92 0.64 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
1——9.09%———9.09%
24.55%———4.55%4.55%13.64%
3—13.64%———4.55%18.18%
44.55%—9.09%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
5+—13.64%—9.09%——22.73%
Total13.64%31.82%18.18%18.18%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.09 2.05 +1.05
SD 1.95 1.53 2.42
CV 0.63 0.75 —
Max 7 5 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%———9.09%
14.55%4.55%————9.09%
24.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
3—9.09%13.64%——4.55%27.27%
44.55%18.18%————22.73%
5+—9.09%—9.09%——18.18%
Total13.64%45.45%22.73%13.64%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.05 1.55 +1.50
SD 1.62 1.18 1.97
CV 0.53 0.77 —
Max 6 5 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
14.55%18.18%————22.73%
29.09%18.18%4.55%—4.55%—36.36%
39.09%—4.55%4.55%——18.18%
49.09%4.55%————13.64%
5+——4.55%—4.55%—9.09%
Total31.82%40.91%13.64%4.55%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.55 1.18 +1.36
SD 1.37 1.22 1.59
CV 0.54 1.03 —
Max 6 4 +4
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%——4.55%—18.18%
14.55%9.09%13.64%———27.27%
2—4.55%9.09%9.09%——22.73%
3—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%—9.09%———13.64%
Total13.64%31.82%36.36%13.64%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.05 1.64 +0.41
SD 1.73 1.05 2.15
CV 0.85 0.64 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———4.55%4.55%—9.09%
14.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%13.64%—40.91%
29.09%4.55%4.55%13.64%4.55%4.55%40.91%
3—————4.55%4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%13.64%13.64%27.27%22.73%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.73 -1.18
SD 0.91 1.83 2.06
CV 0.59 0.67 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1743 36 32.34 +3.66 90.0% 25 27 30 32 34 37 39
Glentoran 1723 35 30.55 +4.45 92.0% 15 25 28 30 33 36 38
Glenavon 1602 28 25.23 +2.77 80.0% 14 18 22 26 28 32 34
Coleraine 1575 22 20.73 +1.27 68.0% 13 14 18 21 23 28 32
Ballymena United 1546 27 25.88 +1.12 64.0% 18 20 23 26 28 32 35
Lisburn Distillery 1527 21 24.81 -3.81 23.0% 17 18 22 25 27 31 34
Crusaders 1521 26 21.67 +4.33 90.0% 13 15 19 21 25 28 30
Bangor 1410 22 15.45 +6.55 99.0% 4 8 13 16 18 21 23
Derry City 1389 13 17.82 -4.82 14.0% 9 11 15 18 20 24 28
Ards 1373 14 18.53 -4.53 18.0% 8 11 16 18 21 25 29
Portadown 1358 12 17.75 -5.75 10.0% 6 9 15 18 21 25 26
Cliftonville 1234 8 13.24 -5.24 5.0% 8 8 11 13 15 19 25

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+19.70%
Clear Edge
52.27%15.15%32.58%
Elo Value
Home Edge
155 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
069.34400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.52 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.45+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.3
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
55%
Linfield, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.05/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.08 * Some Luck: 3.08 to 4.62 * Lucky: 4.62 to 6.16 * Wild Swing: 6.16 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.21 * Close: 1.21 to 1.82 * Off: 1.82 to 2.43 * Way Off: 2.43 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
4.32 points
Some Luck
03.8510
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.524
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
99.00%
Bangor
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
5.00%
Cliftonville
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 152.41
2.07
Strong Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
76%
Clear Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Few
0%47%100%
Blowouts
Expected
30%
Frequent
0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.51
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.29
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.77
Near-Lock
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
15%
Solid Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.91
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.18
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.103
Well Within Noise
00.1380.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Linfield55.00%32.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%———————
Glentoran36.00%33.00%19.00%7.00%4.00%———1.00%———
Glenavon3.00%11.00%25.00%14.00%20.00%10.00%8.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%—
Ballymena United3.00%9.00%21.00%25.00%16.00%13.00%5.00%7.00%1.00%———
Crusaders—2.00%4.00%11.00%16.00%15.00%22.00%14.00%7.00%6.00%1.00%2.00%
Coleraine—1.00%5.00%6.00%8.00%20.00%16.00%14.00%13.00%10.00%5.00%2.00%
Bangor————2.00%1.00%11.00%7.00%16.00%23.00%21.00%19.00%
Lisburn Distillery3.00%12.00%14.00%23.00%13.00%14.00%7.00%9.00%4.00%1.00%——
Ards——3.00%2.00%10.00%9.00%9.00%15.00%15.00%16.00%12.00%9.00%
Derry City———4.00%5.00%9.00%10.00%18.00%15.00%18.00%13.00%8.00%
Portadown——2.00%2.00%5.00%8.00%10.00%11.00%20.00%16.00%15.00%11.00%
Cliftonville———1.00%—1.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%9.00%32.00%49.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ards 100%
Ballymena United 100%
Bangor 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Coleraine 100%
Crusaders 100%
Derry City 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Portadown 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1953-11-21 Crusaders W 3-253.8 1494 1484 57.04% 16.03% 26.93%+0.51 +7.3 2
1953-11-21 @ Ards L 2-353.8 1484 1494 26.93% 16.03% 57.04%-0.51 -7.3 0
1953-11-21 Glentoran L 1-457.7 1578 1629 49.39% 16.07% 34.53%+0.12 -31.7 0
1953-11-21 @ Ballymena United W 4-157.7 1629 1578 34.53% 16.07% 49.39%-0.12 +31.6 2
1953-11-21 Bangor W 4-241.4 1408 1316 65.55% 15.88% 18.56%+1.04 +8.5 2
1953-11-21 @ Cliftonville L 2-441.4 1316 1408 18.56% 15.88% 65.55%-1.04 -8.5 0
1953-11-21 Glenavon D 0-060.2 1431 1541 41.18% 16.06% 42.76%-0.26 +0.1 1
1953-11-21 @ Derry City D 0-060.2 1541 1431 42.76% 16.06% 41.18%+0.26 -0.1 1
1953-11-21 Lisburn Distillery W 2-151.8 1642 1519 68.21% 15.80% 15.98%+1.25 +4.8 2
1953-11-21 @ Linfield L 1-251.8 1519 1642 15.98% 15.80% 68.21%-1.25 -4.8 0
1953-11-21 Coleraine D 1-162.4 1467 1490 52.99% 16.06% 30.95%+0.30 -1.4 1
1953-11-21 @ Portadown D 1-162.4 1490 1467 30.95% 16.06% 52.99%-0.30 +1.4 1
1953-11-28 Derry City W 2-147.6 1308 1432 39.14% 16.05% 44.80%-0.35 +11.8 2
1953-11-28 @ Bangor L 1-247.6 1432 1308 44.80% 16.05% 39.14%+0.35 -11.8 1
1953-11-28 Ards D 1-163.8 1491 1501 54.61% 16.05% 29.35%+0.38 -1.6 2
1953-11-28 @ Coleraine D 1-163.8 1501 1491 29.35% 16.05% 54.61%-0.38 +1.6 3
1953-11-28 Glentoran L 1-353.0 1477 1661 31.10% 15.98% 52.92%-0.74 -15.0 0
1953-11-28 @ Crusaders W 3-153.0 1661 1477 52.92% 15.98% 31.10%+0.74 +15.0 4
1953-11-28 Cliftonville D 1-166.6 1647 1417 75.24% 15.43% 9.33%+1.94 -4.6 3
1953-11-28 @ Linfield D 1-166.6 1417 1647 9.33% 15.43% 75.24%-1.94 +4.6 3
1953-11-28 Glenavon W 5-251.9 1514 1541 52.51% 16.06% 31.43%+0.27 +18.6 2
1953-11-28 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-551.9 1541 1514 31.43% 16.06% 52.51%-0.27 -18.6 1
1953-11-28 Ballymena United L 2-360.6 1465 1547 45.17% 16.07% 38.76%-0.08 -11.3 1
1953-11-28 @ Portadown W 3-260.6 1547 1465 38.76% 16.07% 45.17%+0.08 +11.3 2
1953-12-05 Ballymena United L 1-258.5 1503 1558 48.79% 16.07% 35.14%+0.09 -12.8 3
1953-12-05 @ Ards W 2-158.5 1558 1503 35.14% 16.07% 48.79%-0.09 +12.8 4
1953-12-05 Derry City L 2-358.0 1421 1420 56.04% 16.04% 27.92%+0.46 -13.8 3
1953-12-05 @ Cliftonville W 3-258.0 1420 1421 27.92% 16.04% 56.04%-0.46 +13.8 3
1953-12-05 Crusaders D 3-371.5 1490 1462 59.07% 16.00% 24.93%+0.63 -1.4 3
1953-12-05 @ Coleraine D 3-371.5 1462 1490 24.93% 16.00% 59.07%-0.63 +1.4 1
1953-12-05 Linfield W 4-262.4 1522 1642 39.70% 16.05% 44.25%-0.33 +18.2 3
1953-12-05 @ Glenavon L 2-462.4 1642 1522 44.25% 16.05% 39.70%+0.33 -18.2 3
1953-12-05 Portadown W 4-143.6 1676 1454 74.81% 15.46% 9.73%+1.88 +7.3 6
1953-12-05 @ Glentoran L 1-443.6 1454 1676 9.73% 15.46% 74.81%-1.88 -7.3 1
1953-12-05 Bangor W 6-028.5 1533 1320 74.32% 15.50% 10.18%+1.83 +17.3 4
1953-12-05 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-628.5 1320 1533 10.18% 15.50% 74.32%-1.83 -17.3 2
1953-12-12 Glentoran L 0-444.6 1490 1683 30.00% 15.96% 54.04%-0.80 -31.9 3
1953-12-12 @ Ards W 4-044.6 1683 1490 54.04% 15.96% 30.00%+0.80 +31.9 8
1953-12-12 Coleraine W 5-142.6 1571 1488 64.68% 15.90% 19.41%+0.98 +18.0 6
1953-12-12 @ Ballymena United L 1-542.6 1488 1571 19.41% 15.90% 64.68%-0.98 -18.0 3
1953-12-12 Portadown W 4-248.2 1463 1447 57.76% 16.02% 26.22%+0.55 +11.6 3
1953-12-12 @ Crusaders L 2-448.2 1447 1463 26.22% 16.02% 57.76%-0.55 -11.6 1
1953-12-12 Lisburn Distillery D 1-163.4 1434 1550 40.20% 16.06% 43.74%-0.30 +0.2 4
1953-12-12 @ Derry City D 1-163.4 1550 1434 43.74% 16.06% 40.20%+0.30 -0.2 5
1953-12-12 Cliftonville W 2-037.0 1540 1408 68.97% 15.78% 15.25%+1.31 +9.1 5
1953-12-12 @ Glenavon L 0-237.0 1408 1540 15.25% 15.78% 68.97%-1.31 -9.1 3
1953-12-12 Bangor W 3-030.2 1624 1302 79.26% 15.00% 5.74%+2.53 +5.2 5
1953-12-12 @ Linfield L 0-330.2 1302 1624 5.74% 15.00% 79.26%-2.53 -5.2 2
1953-12-19 Glentoran W 2-056.9 1297 1715 10.42% 15.21% 74.37%-2.25 +38.5 4
1953-12-19 @ Bangor L 0-256.9 1715 1297 74.37% 15.21% 10.42%+2.25 -38.5 8
1953-12-19 Ards W 3-252.4 1399 1458 48.16% 16.07% 35.76%+0.06 +9.3 5
1953-12-19 @ Cliftonville L 2-352.4 1458 1399 35.76% 16.07% 48.16%-0.06 -9.3 3
1953-12-19 Portadown W 3-142.8 1434 1435 55.67% 16.04% 28.29%+0.44 +13.8 6
1953-12-19 @ Derry City L 1-342.8 1435 1434 28.29% 16.04% 55.67%-0.44 -13.9 1
1953-12-19 Ballymena United L 1-261.7 1550 1589 50.89% 16.07% 33.04%+0.19 -13.3 5
1953-12-19 @ Glenavon W 2-161.7 1589 1550 33.04% 16.07% 50.89%-0.19 +13.3 8
1953-12-19 Coleraine W 4-037.4 1629 1470 70.91% 15.69% 13.39%+1.48 +15.3 7
1953-12-19 @ Linfield L 0-437.4 1470 1629 13.39% 15.69% 70.91%-1.48 -15.3 3
1953-12-19 Crusaders D 3-374.2 1550 1475 63.95% 15.92% 20.13%+0.93 -1.8 6
1953-12-19 @ Lisburn Distillery D 3-374.2 1475 1550 20.13% 15.92% 63.95%-0.93 +1.8 4
1953-12-24 Coleraine W 5-246.0 1548 1455 65.63% 15.88% 18.49%+1.05 +11.6 8
1953-12-24 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-546.0 1455 1548 18.49% 15.88% 65.63%-1.05 -11.6 3
1953-12-25 Bangor L 1-352.4 1449 1336 67.40% 15.83% 16.77%+1.18 -30.2 3
1953-12-25 @ Ards W 3-152.4 1336 1449 16.77% 15.83% 67.40%-1.18 +30.2 6
1953-12-25 Lisburn Distillery D 1-169.5 1602 1559 60.69% 15.98% 23.33%+0.73 -2.5 9
1953-12-25 @ Ballymena United D 1-169.5 1559 1602 23.33% 15.98% 60.69%-0.73 +2.5 9
1953-12-25 Derry City W 2-146.4 1443 1448 55.32% 16.04% 28.64%+0.42 +8.1 5
1953-12-25 @ Coleraine L 1-246.4 1448 1443 28.64% 16.04% 55.32%-0.42 -8.1 6
1953-12-25 Cliftonville W 4-032.0 1476 1408 63.33% 15.93% 20.73%+0.89 +23.0 6
1953-12-25 @ Crusaders L 0-432.0 1408 1476 20.73% 15.93% 63.33%-0.89 -23.0 5
1953-12-25 Linfield L 0-260.6 1676 1645 59.51% 16.00% 24.49%+0.65 -30.8 8
1953-12-25 @ Glentoran W 2-060.6 1645 1676 24.49% 16.00% 59.51%-0.65 +30.8 9
1953-12-25 Glenavon L 3-749.9 1421 1536 40.39% 16.06% 43.55%-0.30 -26.6 1
1953-12-25 @ Portadown W 7-349.9 1536 1421 43.55% 16.06% 40.39%+0.30 +26.6 7
1953-12-26 Crusaders W 4-252.8 1366 1499 37.79% 16.04% 46.17%-0.42 +18.8 8
1953-12-26 @ Bangor L 2-452.8 1499 1366 46.17% 16.04% 37.79%+0.42 -18.8 6
1953-12-26 Ballymena United L 0-339.0 1385 1600 27.35% 15.92% 56.73%-0.94 -22.5 5
1953-12-26 @ Cliftonville W 3-039.0 1600 1385 56.73% 15.92% 27.35%+0.94 +22.5 11
1953-12-26 Glentoran L 2-358.1 1439 1646 28.39% 15.94% 55.68%-0.89 -7.6 6
1953-12-26 @ Derry City W 3-258.1 1646 1439 55.68% 15.94% 28.39%+0.89 +7.6 10
1953-12-26 Coleraine W 6-139.5 1563 1451 67.25% 15.83% 16.92%+1.17 +19.5 9
1953-12-26 @ Glenavon L 1-639.5 1451 1563 16.92% 15.83% 67.25%-1.17 -19.5 5
1953-12-26 Ards W 4-035.5 1675 1419 76.57% 15.32% 8.12%+2.11 +9.5 11
1953-12-26 @ Linfield L 0-435.5 1419 1675 8.12% 15.32% 76.57%-2.11 -9.5 3
1953-12-26 Portadown D 2-267.1 1562 1395 71.48% 15.67% 12.86%+1.53 -3.0 10
1953-12-26 @ Lisburn Distillery D 2-267.1 1395 1562 12.86% 15.67% 71.48%-1.53 +3.0 2
1953-12-28 Cliftonville W 2-036.0 1622 1362 76.73% 15.30% 7.97%+2.13 +4.9 13
1953-12-28 @ Ballymena United L 0-236.0 1362 1622 7.97% 15.30% 76.73%-2.13 -4.9 5
1953-12-28 Ards L 0-243.8 1385 1409 52.79% 16.06% 31.15%+0.29 -27.5 8
1953-12-28 @ Bangor W 2-043.8 1409 1385 31.15% 16.06% 52.79%-0.29 +27.5 5
1953-12-28 Linfield L 4-567.0 1481 1685 28.62% 15.94% 55.44%-0.87 -7.4 6
1953-12-28 @ Crusaders W 5-467.0 1685 1481 55.44% 15.94% 28.62%+0.87 +7.4 13
1953-12-28 Glenavon W 5-360.0 1653 1582 63.56% 15.93% 20.51%+0.91 +8.8 12
1953-12-28 @ Glentoran L 3-560.0 1582 1653 20.51% 15.93% 63.56%-0.91 -8.8 9
1953-12-28 Derry City W 2-038.5 1398 1432 51.56% 16.06% 32.37%+0.23 +18.0 4
1953-12-28 @ Portadown L 0-238.5 1432 1398 32.37% 16.06% 51.56%-0.23 -18.0 6
1954-01-02 Portadown W 3-035.2 1357 1416 48.35% 16.07% 35.58%+0.07 +28.3 10
1954-01-02 @ Bangor L 0-335.2 1416 1357 35.58% 16.07% 48.35%-0.07 -28.3 4
1954-01-02 Coleraine L 1-641.2 1357 1432 46.15% 16.07% 37.78%-0.03 -47.1 5
1954-01-02 @ Cliftonville W 6-141.2 1432 1357 37.78% 16.07% 46.15%+0.03 +47.1 7
1954-01-02 Crusaders L 1-349.4 1414 1473 48.23% 16.07% 35.70%+0.06 -21.9 6
1954-01-02 @ Derry City W 3-149.4 1473 1414 35.70% 16.07% 48.23%-0.06 +21.9 8
1954-01-02 Ards W 4-248.4 1574 1437 69.28% 15.76% 14.96%+1.33 +7.0 11
1954-01-02 @ Glenavon L 2-448.4 1437 1574 14.96% 15.76% 69.28%-1.33 -7.0 5
1954-01-02 Ballymena United D 3-381.7 1692 1627 62.97% 15.94% 21.09%+0.87 -1.7 14
1954-01-02 @ Linfield D 3-381.7 1627 1692 21.09% 15.94% 62.97%-0.87 +1.7 14
1954-01-02 Glentoran L 2-366.0 1559 1662 42.09% 16.06% 41.85%-0.22 -10.7 10
1954-01-02 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-266.0 1662 1559 41.85% 16.06% 42.09%+0.22 +10.7 14
1954-01-09 Lisburn Distillery W 1-050.3 1430 1548 39.92% 16.06% 44.03%-0.32 +12.4 7
1954-01-09 @ Ards L 0-150.3 1548 1430 44.03% 16.06% 39.92%+0.32 -12.4 10
1954-01-09 Derry City W 5-243.7 1629 1392 75.61% 15.40% 8.99%+1.98 +5.9 16
1954-01-09 @ Ballymena United L 2-543.7 1392 1629 8.99% 15.40% 75.61%-1.98 -5.9 6
1954-01-09 Bangor D 1-159.4 1479 1386 65.67% 15.88% 18.45%+1.05 -3.2 8
1954-01-09 @ Coleraine D 1-159.4 1386 1479 18.45% 15.88% 65.67%-1.05 +3.2 11
1954-01-09 Glenavon L 1-355.1 1495 1581 44.61% 16.07% 39.31%-0.10 -20.5 8
1954-01-09 @ Crusaders W 3-155.1 1581 1495 39.31% 16.07% 44.61%+0.10 +20.5 13
1954-01-09 Cliftonville W 5-135.0 1673 1310 80.61% 14.77% 4.62%+2.79 +4.5 16
1954-01-09 @ Glentoran L 1-535.0 1310 1673 4.62% 14.77% 80.61%-2.79 -4.5 5
1954-01-09 Linfield L 2-646.1 1387 1690 18.38% 15.68% 65.94%-1.51 -14.5 4
1954-01-09 @ Portadown W 6-246.1 1690 1387 65.94% 15.68% 18.38%+1.51 +14.5 16
1954-01-16 Bangor W 2-037.7 1635 1389 76.07% 15.36% 8.57%+2.04 +5.3 18
1954-01-16 @ Ballymena United L 0-237.7 1389 1635 8.57% 15.36% 76.07%-2.04 -5.3 11
1954-01-16 Portadown L 0-240.2 1306 1373 47.17% 16.07% 36.76%+0.01 -24.8 5
1954-01-16 @ Cliftonville W 2-040.2 1373 1306 36.76% 16.07% 47.17%-0.01 +24.8 6
1954-01-16 Lisburn Distillery W 3-257.7 1476 1536 48.13% 16.07% 35.80%+0.06 +9.3 10
1954-01-16 @ Coleraine L 2-357.7 1536 1476 35.80% 16.07% 48.13%-0.06 -9.3 10
1954-01-16 Ards W 6-138.8 1386 1442 48.67% 16.07% 35.26%+0.09 +37.5 8
1954-01-16 @ Derry City L 1-638.8 1442 1386 35.26% 16.07% 48.67%-0.09 -37.5 7
1954-01-16 Glentoran W 5-366.0 1601 1677 45.90% 16.07% 38.03%-0.04 +15.1 15
1954-01-16 @ Glenavon L 3-566.0 1677 1601 38.03% 16.07% 45.90%+0.04 -15.1 16
1954-01-16 Crusaders D 1-170.1 1705 1475 75.26% 15.43% 9.31%+1.94 -4.6 17
1954-01-16 @ Linfield D 1-170.1 1475 1705 9.31% 15.43% 75.26%-1.94 +4.6 9
1954-01-23 Derry City W 3-250.0 1405 1424 53.52% 16.05% 30.42%+0.33 +8.1 9
1954-01-23 @ Ards L 2-350.0 1424 1405 30.42% 16.05% 53.52%-0.33 -8.1 8
1954-01-23 Glenavon D 4-483.9 1640 1616 58.63% 16.01% 25.37%+0.60 -1.2 19
1954-01-23 @ Ballymena United D 4-483.9 1616 1640 25.37% 16.01% 58.63%-0.60 +1.2 16
1954-01-23 Crusaders L 2-348.2 1281 1479 29.34% 15.95% 54.71%-0.83 -7.8 5
1954-01-23 @ Cliftonville W 3-248.2 1479 1281 54.71% 15.95% 29.34%+0.83 +7.8 11
1954-01-23 Linfield D 1-170.1 1485 1700 27.32% 15.92% 56.77%-0.94 +1.9 11
1954-01-23 @ Coleraine D 1-170.1 1700 1485 56.77% 15.92% 27.32%+0.94 -1.9 18
1954-01-23 Bangor W 3-250.1 1662 1383 77.57% 15.21% 7.22%+2.25 +2.1 18
1954-01-23 @ Glentoran L 2-350.1 1383 1662 7.22% 15.21% 77.57%-2.25 -2.1 11
1954-01-23 Lisburn Distillery L 1-250.4 1398 1527 38.44% 16.05% 45.51%-0.39 -10.4 6
1954-01-23 @ Portadown W 2-150.4 1527 1398 45.51% 16.05% 38.44%+0.39 +10.4 12
1954-01-30 Cliftonville W 4-239.7 1413 1273 69.50% 15.76% 14.74%+1.35 +6.9 11
1954-01-30 @ Ards L 2-439.7 1273 1413 14.74% 15.76% 69.50%-1.35 -6.9 5
1954-01-30 Lisburn Distillery W 4-041.2 1487 1537 49.50% 16.07% 34.43%+0.13 +36.0 13
1954-01-30 @ Crusaders L 0-441.2 1537 1487 34.43% 16.07% 49.50%-0.13 -36.0 12
1954-01-30 Coleraine W 4-251.4 1416 1487 46.56% 16.07% 37.36%-0.01 +15.8 10
1954-01-30 @ Derry City L 2-451.4 1487 1416 37.36% 16.07% 46.56%+0.01 -15.7 11
1954-01-30 Portadown W 4-032.7 1617 1387 75.25% 15.43% 9.32%+1.94 +10.9 18
1954-01-30 @ Glenavon L 0-432.7 1387 1617 9.32% 15.43% 75.25%-1.94 -10.9 6
1954-01-30 Glentoran W 3-262.6 1698 1664 59.77% 15.99% 24.24%+0.67 +6.6 20
1954-01-30 @ Linfield L 2-362.6 1664 1698 24.24% 15.99% 59.77%-0.67 -6.6 18
1954-02-13 Linfield L 1-251.9 1420 1705 19.97% 15.73% 64.29%-1.40 -5.8 11
1954-02-13 @ Ards W 2-151.9 1705 1420 64.29% 15.73% 19.97%+1.40 +5.8 22
1954-02-13 Glenavon W 3-049.8 1471 1628 34.62% 16.02% 49.36%-0.57 +37.5 13
1954-02-13 @ Coleraine L 0-349.8 1628 1471 49.36% 16.02% 34.62%+0.57 -37.5 18
1954-02-13 Bangor W 4-030.8 1523 1381 69.66% 15.75% 14.60%+1.37 +16.6 15
1954-02-13 @ Crusaders L 0-430.8 1381 1523 14.60% 15.75% 69.66%-1.37 -16.6 11
1954-02-13 Derry City W 1-043.8 1658 1431 75.06% 15.45% 9.50%+1.91 +3.1 20
1954-02-13 @ Glentoran L 0-143.8 1431 1658 9.50% 15.45% 75.06%-1.91 -3.1 10
1954-02-13 Ballymena United W 4-048.8 1501 1639 37.19% 16.04% 46.77%-0.44 +46.7 14
1954-02-13 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-448.8 1639 1501 46.77% 16.04% 37.19%+0.44 -46.7 19
1954-02-13 Cliftonville W 2-138.0 1376 1266 67.12% 15.84% 17.04%+1.16 +5.1 8
1954-02-13 @ Portadown L 1-238.0 1266 1376 17.04% 15.84% 67.12%-1.16 -5.1 5
1954-02-18 Ballymena United W 2-157.5 1365 1592 25.92% 15.89% 58.19%-1.02 +15.0 13
1954-02-18 @ Bangor L 1-257.5 1592 1365 58.19% 15.89% 25.92%+1.02 -15.0 19
1954-02-20 Coleraine W 5-144.4 1380 1509 38.42% 16.05% 45.53%-0.39 +38.0 15
1954-02-20 @ Bangor L 1-544.4 1509 1380 45.53% 16.05% 38.42%+0.39 -38.0 13
1954-02-20 Glentoran L 1-634.3 1261 1661 11.44% 15.30% 73.26%-2.14 -13.4 5
1954-02-20 @ Cliftonville W 6-134.3 1661 1261 73.26% 15.30% 11.44%+2.14 +13.4 22
1954-02-20 Ballymena United L 1-349.8 1428 1577 35.69% 16.03% 48.29%-0.51 -16.9 10
1954-02-20 @ Derry City W 3-149.8 1577 1428 48.29% 16.03% 35.69%+0.51 +16.9 21
1954-02-20 Crusaders L 2-466.6 1591 1540 61.55% 15.97% 22.48%+0.78 -24.6 18
1954-02-20 @ Glenavon W 4-266.6 1540 1591 22.48% 15.97% 61.55%-0.78 +24.6 17
1954-02-20 Portadown W 2-146.3 1711 1381 79.53% 14.96% 5.51%+2.58 +1.7 24
1954-02-20 @ Linfield L 1-246.3 1381 1711 5.51% 14.96% 79.53%-2.58 -1.7 8
1954-02-20 Ards D 2-267.2 1548 1414 69.05% 15.77% 15.18%+1.31 -2.7 15
1954-02-20 @ Lisburn Distillery D 2-267.2 1414 1548 15.18% 15.77% 69.05%-1.31 +2.7 12
1954-02-27 Glenavon L 3-460.6 1417 1566 35.62% 16.03% 48.35%-0.52 -9.0 12
1954-02-27 @ Ards W 4-360.6 1566 1417 48.35% 16.03% 35.62%+0.52 +9.0 20
1954-02-27 Linfield D 2-276.8 1594 1713 39.89% 16.06% 44.05%-0.32 +0.2 22
1954-02-27 @ Ballymena United D 2-276.8 1713 1594 44.05% 16.06% 39.89%+0.32 -0.2 25
1954-02-27 Cliftonville W 5-235.3 1471 1248 74.87% 15.46% 9.67%+1.89 +6.3 15
1954-02-27 @ Coleraine L 2-535.3 1248 1471 9.67% 15.46% 74.87%-1.89 -6.3 5
1954-02-27 Derry City W 5-349.9 1564 1411 70.49% 15.71% 13.80%+1.44 +6.1 19
1954-02-27 @ Crusaders L 3-549.9 1411 1564 13.80% 15.71% 70.49%-1.44 -6.1 10
1954-02-27 Lisburn Distillery W 2-153.0 1674 1545 68.69% 15.79% 15.53%+1.28 +4.6 24
1954-02-27 @ Glentoran L 1-253.0 1545 1674 15.53% 15.79% 68.69%-1.28 -4.7 15
1954-02-27 Bangor L 2-355.5 1380 1418 51.07% 16.07% 32.86%+0.20 -12.6 8
1954-02-27 @ Portadown W 3-255.5 1418 1380 32.86% 16.07% 51.07%-0.20 +12.6 17
1954-03-13 Crusaders L 1-264.7 1594 1570 58.62% 16.01% 25.37%+0.60 -15.2 22
1954-03-13 @ Ballymena United W 2-164.7 1570 1594 25.37% 16.01% 58.62%-0.60 +15.2 21
1954-03-13 Glenavon L 1-350.0 1430 1575 36.26% 16.03% 47.70%-0.49 -17.2 17
1954-03-13 @ Bangor W 3-150.0 1575 1430 47.70% 16.03% 36.26%+0.49 +17.2 22
1954-03-13 Lisburn Distillery L 1-337.7 1242 1540 18.76% 15.69% 65.55%-1.48 -9.5 5
1954-03-13 @ Cliftonville W 3-137.7 1540 1242 65.55% 15.69% 18.76%+1.48 +9.5 17
1954-03-13 Glentoran D 1-169.4 1477 1679 28.92% 15.94% 55.14%-0.86 +1.7 16
1954-03-13 @ Coleraine D 1-169.4 1679 1477 55.14% 15.94% 28.92%+0.86 -1.7 25
1954-03-13 Derry City W 3-037.2 1712 1405 78.72% 15.07% 6.21%+2.44 +5.6 27
1954-03-13 @ Linfield L 0-337.2 1405 1712 6.21% 15.07% 78.72%-2.44 -5.6 10
1954-03-13 Ards W 1-041.0 1367 1408 50.75% 16.07% 33.18%+0.19 +9.7 10
1954-03-13 @ Portadown L 0-141.0 1408 1367 33.18% 16.07% 50.75%-0.19 -9.7 12
1954-03-20 Cliftonville W 1-032.7 1413 1232 72.40% 15.62% 11.98%+1.62 +3.9 19
1954-03-20 @ Bangor L 0-132.7 1232 1413 11.98% 15.62% 72.40%-1.62 -3.9 5
1954-03-20 Portadown W 3-246.9 1479 1377 66.42% 15.86% 17.72%+1.11 +5.0 18
1954-03-20 @ Coleraine L 2-346.9 1377 1479 17.72% 15.86% 66.42%-1.11 -5.0 10
1954-03-20 Ards W 2-037.1 1586 1398 72.82% 15.60% 11.58%+1.66 +7.0 23
1954-03-20 @ Crusaders L 0-237.1 1398 1586 11.58% 15.60% 72.82%-1.66 -7.0 12
1954-03-20 Derry City W 5-137.6 1592 1400 73.12% 15.58% 11.30%+1.69 +10.9 24
1954-03-20 @ Glenavon L 1-537.6 1400 1592 11.30% 15.58% 73.12%-1.69 -10.9 10
1954-03-20 Ballymena United W 4-149.2 1677 1579 66.07% 15.87% 18.06%+1.08 +13.1 27
1954-03-20 @ Glentoran L 1-449.2 1579 1677 18.06% 15.87% 66.07%-1.08 -13.1 22
1954-03-20 Linfield L 0-155.5 1550 1718 33.13% 16.00% 50.87%-0.64 -9.7 17
1954-03-20 @ Lisburn Distillery W 1-055.5 1718 1550 50.87% 16.00% 33.13%+0.64 +9.7 29
1954-04-03 Coleraine L 1-445.0 1391 1484 43.55% 16.07% 40.38%-0.15 -28.3 12
1954-04-03 @ Ards W 4-145.0 1484 1391 40.38% 16.07% 43.55%+0.15 +28.3 20
1954-04-03 Portadown L 1-455.9 1566 1372 73.22% 15.57% 11.21%+1.70 -46.6 22
1954-04-03 @ Ballymena United W 4-155.9 1372 1566 11.21% 15.57% 73.22%-1.70 +46.6 12
1954-04-03 Linfield L 1-436.4 1228 1728 6.81% 14.78% 78.41%-2.78 -5.1 5
1954-04-03 @ Cliftonville W 4-136.4 1728 1228 78.41% 14.78% 6.81%+2.78 +5.1 31
1954-04-03 Bangor W 2-037.7 1389 1417 52.32% 16.06% 31.62%+0.27 +17.6 12
1954-04-03 @ Derry City L 0-237.7 1417 1389 31.62% 16.06% 52.32%-0.27 -17.6 19
1954-04-03 Lisburn Distillery L 0-161.6 1603 1540 62.77% 15.95% 21.28%+0.86 -17.2 24
1954-04-03 @ Glenavon W 1-061.6 1540 1603 21.28% 15.95% 62.77%-0.86 +17.2 19
1954-04-03 Crusaders W 5-360.1 1690 1593 66.04% 15.87% 18.09%+1.08 +7.8 29
1954-04-03 @ Glentoran L 3-560.1 1593 1690 18.09% 15.87% 66.04%-1.08 -7.8 23
1954-04-10 Ards W 2-034.2 1519 1362 70.77% 15.70% 13.53%+1.46 +8.2 24
1954-04-10 @ Ballymena United L 0-234.2 1362 1519 13.53% 15.70% 70.77%-1.46 -8.2 12
1954-04-10 Lisburn Distillery W 1-051.1 1399 1557 34.49% 16.02% 49.50%-0.57 +13.7 21
1954-04-10 @ Bangor L 0-151.1 1557 1399 49.50% 16.02% 34.49%+0.57 -13.7 19
1954-04-10 Coleraine L 0-653.2 1585 1512 63.74% 15.93% 20.34%+0.92 -91.5 23
1954-04-10 @ Crusaders W 6-053.2 1512 1585 20.34% 15.93% 63.74%-0.92 +91.5 22
1954-04-10 Cliftonville D 1-155.4 1406 1223 72.54% 15.61% 11.85%+1.63 -4.2 13
1954-04-10 @ Derry City D 1-155.4 1223 1406 11.85% 15.61% 72.54%-1.63 +4.2 6
1954-04-10 Glenavon W 2-154.1 1733 1586 70.05% 15.73% 14.22%+1.40 +4.3 33
1954-04-10 @ Linfield L 1-254.1 1586 1733 14.22% 15.73% 70.05%-1.40 -4.3 24
1954-04-10 Glentoran L 1-349.1 1418 1698 20.52% 15.75% 63.73%-1.36 -10.4 12
1954-04-10 @ Portadown W 3-149.1 1698 1418 63.73% 15.75% 20.52%+1.36 +10.4 31
1954-04-17 Linfield D 1-169.3 1413 1737 16.63% 15.60% 67.76%-1.65 +3.4 22
1954-04-17 @ Bangor D 1-169.3 1737 1413 67.76% 15.60% 16.63%+1.65 -3.4 34
1954-04-17 Glenavon L 1-532.6 1227 1582 14.34% 15.49% 70.17%-1.84 -13.6 6
1954-04-17 @ Cliftonville W 5-132.6 1582 1227 70.17% 15.49% 14.34%+1.84 +13.6 26
1954-04-17 Ballymena United L 1-265.4 1604 1528 64.04% 15.92% 20.04%+0.94 -16.5 22
1954-04-17 @ Coleraine W 2-165.4 1528 1604 20.04% 15.92% 64.04%-0.94 +16.5 26
1954-04-17 Ards W 2-037.8 1708 1354 80.35% 14.82% 4.83%+2.74 +3.0 33
1954-04-17 @ Glentoran L 0-237.8 1354 1708 4.83% 14.82% 80.35%-2.74 -3.0 12
1954-04-17 Derry City W 3-248.8 1544 1402 69.63% 15.75% 14.62%+1.36 +4.2 21
1954-04-17 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-348.8 1402 1544 14.62% 15.75% 69.63%-1.36 -4.2 13
1954-04-17 Crusaders L 1-446.2 1408 1493 44.64% 16.07% 39.29%-0.10 -28.9 12
1954-04-17 @ Portadown W 4-146.2 1493 1408 39.29% 16.07% 44.64%+0.10 +29.0 25
1954-04-20 Portadown W 4-138.2 1351 1379 52.39% 16.06% 31.55%+0.27 +21.5 14
1954-04-20 @ Ards L 1-438.2 1379 1351 31.55% 16.06% 52.39%-0.27 -21.5 12
1954-04-20 Ballymena United D 1-166.5 1522 1544 53.14% 16.06% 30.81%+0.31 -1.4 26
1954-04-20 @ Crusaders D 1-166.5 1544 1522 30.81% 16.06% 53.14%-0.31 +1.4 27
1954-04-20 Linfield L 0-243.6 1398 1734 15.72% 15.56% 68.72%-1.72 -9.3 13
1954-04-20 @ Derry City W 2-043.6 1734 1398 68.72% 15.56% 15.72%+1.72 +9.3 36
1954-04-20 Bangor W 3-142.9 1595 1417 72.23% 15.63% 12.14%+1.60 +6.4 28
1954-04-20 @ Glenavon L 1-342.9 1417 1595 12.14% 15.63% 72.23%-1.60 -6.4 22
1954-04-20 Coleraine W 4-149.1 1711 1587 68.31% 15.80% 15.89%+1.25 +11.6 35
1954-04-20 @ Glentoran L 1-449.1 1587 1711 15.89% 15.80% 68.31%-1.25 -11.6 22
1954-04-20 Cliftonville L 1-258.1 1548 1214 79.69% 14.93% 5.38%+2.61 -20.8 21
1954-04-20 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-158.1 1214 1548 5.38% 14.93% 79.69%-2.61 +20.8 8

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1954-04-20 5.38% Cliftonville 1214 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1548 1
2 1953-12-19 10.42% @ Bangor 1297 2 Glentoran 1715 0
3 1954-04-03 11.21% Portadown 1372 4 @ Ballymena United 1566 1
4 1953-12-25 16.77% Bangor 1336 3 @ Ards 1449 1
5 1954-04-17 20.04% Ballymena United 1528 2 @ Coleraine 1604 1
6 1954-04-10 20.34% Coleraine 1512 6 @ Crusaders 1585 0
7 1954-04-03 21.28% Lisburn Distillery 1540 1 @ Glenavon 1603 0
8 1954-02-20 22.48% Crusaders 1540 4 @ Glenavon 1591 2
9 1953-12-25 24.49% Linfield 1645 2 @ Glentoran 1676 0
10 1954-03-13 25.37% Crusaders 1570 2 @ Ballymena United 1594 1
11 1954-02-18 25.92% @ Bangor 1365 2 Ballymena United 1592 1
12 1953-12-05 27.92% Derry City 1420 3 @ Cliftonville 1421 2
13 1953-12-28 31.15% Ards 1409 2 @ Bangor 1385 0
14 1954-02-27 32.86% Bangor 1418 3 @ Portadown 1380 2
15 1953-12-19 33.04% Ballymena United 1589 2 @ Glenavon 1550 1
16 1954-04-10 34.49% @ Bangor 1399 1 Lisburn Distillery 1557 0
17 1953-11-21 34.53% Glentoran 1629 4 @ Ballymena United 1578 1
18 1954-02-13 34.62% @ Coleraine 1471 3 Glenavon 1628 0
19 1953-12-05 35.14% Ballymena United 1558 2 @ Ards 1503 1
20 1954-01-02 35.70% Crusaders 1473 3 @ Derry City 1414 1
21 1954-01-16 36.76% Portadown 1373 2 @ Cliftonville 1306 0
22 1954-02-13 37.19% @ Lisburn Distillery 1501 4 Ballymena United 1639 0
23 1954-01-02 37.78% Coleraine 1432 6 @ Cliftonville 1357 1
24 1953-12-26 37.79% @ Bangor 1366 4 Crusaders 1499 2
25 1954-02-20 38.42% @ Bangor 1380 5 Coleraine 1509 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1954-04-10 91.49 Coleraine 6 1512 20.34% @ Crusaders 0 1585 63.74% 15.93%
2 1954-01-02 47.11 Coleraine 6 1432 37.78% @ Cliftonville 1 1357 46.15% 16.07%
3 1954-02-13 46.69 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1501 37.19% Ballymena United 0 1639 46.77% 16.04%
4 1954-04-03 46.57 Portadown 4 1372 11.21% @ Ballymena United 1 1566 73.22% 15.57%
5 1953-12-19 38.53 @ Bangor 2 1297 10.42% Glentoran 0 1715 74.37% 15.21%
6 1954-02-20 38.00 @ Bangor 5 1380 38.42% Coleraine 1 1509 45.53% 16.05%
7 1954-02-13 37.49 @ Coleraine 3 1471 34.62% Glenavon 0 1628 49.36% 16.02%
8 1954-01-16 37.47 @ Derry City 6 1386 48.67% Ards 1 1442 35.26% 16.07%
9 1954-01-30 35.97 @ Crusaders 4 1487 49.50% Lisburn Distillery 0 1537 34.43% 16.07%
10 1953-12-12 31.89 Glentoran 4 1683 54.04% @ Ards 0 1490 30.00% 15.96%
11 1953-11-21 31.65 Glentoran 4 1629 34.53% @ Ballymena United 1 1578 49.39% 16.07%
12 1953-12-25 30.78 Linfield 2 1645 24.49% @ Glentoran 0 1676 59.51% 16.00%
13 1953-12-25 30.20 Bangor 3 1336 16.77% @ Ards 1 1449 67.40% 15.83%
14 1954-04-17 28.95 Crusaders 4 1493 39.29% @ Portadown 1 1408 44.64% 16.07%
15 1954-04-03 28.34 Coleraine 4 1484 40.38% @ Ards 1 1391 43.55% 16.07%
16 1954-01-02 28.33 @ Bangor 3 1357 48.35% Portadown 0 1416 35.58% 16.07%
17 1953-12-28 27.46 Ards 2 1409 31.15% @ Bangor 0 1385 52.79% 16.06%
18 1953-12-25 26.60 Glenavon 7 1536 43.55% @ Portadown 3 1421 40.39% 16.06%
19 1954-01-16 24.80 Portadown 2 1373 36.76% @ Cliftonville 0 1306 47.17% 16.07%
20 1954-02-20 24.64 Crusaders 4 1540 22.48% @ Glenavon 2 1591 61.55% 15.97%
21 1953-12-25 22.99 @ Crusaders 4 1476 63.33% Cliftonville 0 1408 20.73% 15.93%
22 1953-12-26 22.51 Ballymena United 3 1600 56.73% @ Cliftonville 0 1385 27.35% 15.92%
23 1954-01-02 21.91 Crusaders 3 1473 35.70% @ Derry City 1 1414 48.23% 16.07%
24 1954-04-20 21.54 @ Ards 4 1351 52.39% Portadown 1 1379 31.55% 16.06%
25 1954-04-20 20.76 Cliftonville 2 1214 5.38% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1548 79.69% 14.93%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1954-01-23 83.9 @ Ballymena United 4 1640 58.63% Glenavon 4 1616 25.37% 16.01%
2 1954-01-02 81.7 @ Linfield 3 1692 62.97% Ballymena United 3 1627 21.09% 15.94%
3 1954-02-27 76.8 @ Ballymena United 2 1594 39.89% Linfield 2 1713 44.05% 16.06%
4 1953-12-19 74.2 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1550 63.95% Crusaders 3 1475 20.13% 15.92%
5 1953-12-05 71.5 @ Coleraine 3 1490 59.07% Crusaders 3 1462 24.93% 16.00%
6 1954-01-16 70.1 @ Linfield 1 1705 75.26% Crusaders 1 1475 9.31% 15.43%
7 1954-01-23 70.1 @ Coleraine 1 1485 27.32% Linfield 1 1700 56.77% 15.92%
8 1953-12-25 69.5 @ Ballymena United 1 1602 60.69% Lisburn Distillery 1 1559 23.33% 15.98%
9 1954-03-13 69.4 @ Coleraine 1 1477 28.92% Glentoran 1 1679 55.14% 15.94%
10 1954-04-17 69.3 @ Bangor 1 1413 16.63% Linfield 1 1737 67.76% 15.60%
11 1954-02-20 67.2 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1548 69.05% Ards 2 1414 15.18% 15.77%
12 1953-12-26 67.1 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1562 71.48% Portadown 2 1395 12.86% 15.67%
13 1953-12-28 67.0 Linfield 5 1685 55.44% @ Crusaders 4 1481 28.62% 15.94%
14 1953-11-28 66.6 @ Linfield 1 1647 75.24% Cliftonville 1 1417 9.33% 15.43%
15 1954-02-20 66.6 Crusaders 4 1540 22.48% @ Glenavon 2 1591 61.55% 15.97%
16 1954-04-20 66.5 @ Crusaders 1 1522 53.14% Ballymena United 1 1544 30.81% 16.06%
17 1954-01-02 66.0 Glentoran 3 1662 41.85% @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1559 42.09% 16.06%
18 1954-01-16 66.0 @ Glenavon 5 1601 45.90% Glentoran 3 1677 38.03% 16.07%
19 1954-04-17 65.4 Ballymena United 2 1528 20.04% @ Coleraine 1 1604 64.04% 15.92%
20 1954-03-13 64.7 Crusaders 2 1570 25.37% @ Ballymena United 1 1594 58.62% 16.01%
21 1953-11-28 63.8 @ Coleraine 1 1491 54.61% Ards 1 1501 29.35% 16.05%
22 1953-12-12 63.4 @ Derry City 1 1434 40.20% Lisburn Distillery 1 1550 43.74% 16.06%
23 1954-01-30 62.6 @ Linfield 3 1698 59.77% Glentoran 2 1664 24.24% 15.99%
24 1953-11-21 62.4 @ Portadown 1 1467 52.99% Coleraine 1 1490 30.95% 16.06%
25 1953-12-05 62.4 @ Glenavon 4 1522 39.70% Linfield 2 1642 44.25% 16.05%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1953-12-05 28.5 @ Lisburn Distillery 6 1533 74.32% Bangor 0 1320 10.18% 15.50%
2 1953-12-12 30.2 @ Linfield 3 1624 79.26% Bangor 0 1302 5.74% 15.00%
3 1954-02-13 30.8 @ Crusaders 4 1523 69.66% Bangor 0 1381 14.60% 15.75%
4 1953-12-25 32.0 @ Crusaders 4 1476 63.33% Cliftonville 0 1408 20.73% 15.93%
5 1954-04-17 32.6 Glenavon 5 1582 70.17% @ Cliftonville 1 1227 14.34% 15.49%
6 1954-01-30 32.7 @ Glenavon 4 1617 75.25% Portadown 0 1387 9.32% 15.43%
7 1954-03-20 32.7 @ Bangor 1 1413 72.40% Cliftonville 0 1232 11.98% 15.62%
8 1954-04-10 34.2 @ Ballymena United 2 1519 70.77% Ards 0 1362 13.53% 15.70%
9 1954-02-20 34.3 Glentoran 6 1661 73.26% @ Cliftonville 1 1261 11.44% 15.30%
10 1954-01-09 35.0 @ Glentoran 5 1673 80.61% Cliftonville 1 1310 4.62% 14.77%
11 1954-01-02 35.2 @ Bangor 3 1357 48.35% Portadown 0 1416 35.58% 16.07%
12 1954-02-27 35.3 @ Coleraine 5 1471 74.87% Cliftonville 2 1248 9.67% 15.46%
13 1953-12-26 35.5 @ Linfield 4 1675 76.57% Ards 0 1419 8.12% 15.32%
14 1953-12-28 36.0 @ Ballymena United 2 1622 76.73% Cliftonville 0 1362 7.97% 15.30%
15 1954-04-03 36.4 Linfield 4 1728 78.41% @ Cliftonville 1 1228 6.81% 14.78%
16 1953-12-12 37.0 @ Glenavon 2 1540 68.97% Cliftonville 0 1408 15.25% 15.78%
17 1954-03-20 37.1 @ Crusaders 2 1586 72.82% Ards 0 1398 11.58% 15.60%
18 1954-03-13 37.2 @ Linfield 3 1712 78.72% Derry City 0 1405 6.21% 15.07%
19 1953-12-19 37.4 @ Linfield 4 1629 70.91% Coleraine 0 1470 13.39% 15.69%
20 1954-03-20 37.6 @ Glenavon 5 1592 73.12% Derry City 1 1400 11.30% 15.58%
21 1954-01-16 37.7 @ Ballymena United 2 1635 76.07% Bangor 0 1389 8.57% 15.36%
22 1954-03-13 37.7 Lisburn Distillery 3 1540 65.55% @ Cliftonville 1 1242 18.76% 15.69%
23 1954-04-03 37.7 @ Derry City 2 1389 52.32% Bangor 0 1417 31.62% 16.06%
24 1954-04-17 37.8 @ Glentoran 2 1708 80.35% Ards 0 1354 4.83% 14.82%
25 1954-02-13 38.0 @ Portadown 2 1376 67.12% Cliftonville 1 1266 17.04% 15.84%