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1964-65 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Derry City

35 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Crusaders

5.84 points above expected

27 points · 21.16 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Cliftonville

6.44 points below expected

2 points · 8.44 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Derry City 22 15 5 2 35 62 32 +30 30.35 +4.65
2 Coleraine 22 13 4 5 30 54 26 +28 27.15 +2.85
3 Crusaders 22 11 5 6 27 46 32 +14 21.16 +5.84
4 Glenavon 22 12 2 8 26 61 35 +26 25.83 +0.17
5 Linfield 22 10 5 7 25 54 40 +14 24.45 +0.55
6 Ballymena United 22 10 5 7 25 50 44 +6 22.11 +2.89
7 Glentoran 22 9 6 7 24 33 38 -5 26.81 -2.81
8 Bangor 22 7 4 11 18 42 44 -2 15.11 +2.89
9 Lisburn Distillery 22 8 2 12 18 41 44 -3 22.99 -4.99
10 Portadown 22 5 8 9 18 33 37 -4 21.81 -3.81
11 Ards 22 5 6 11 16 34 55 -21 17.79 -1.79
12 Cliftonville 22 1 0 21 2 17 100 -83 8.44 -6.44

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Crusaders 27 21.16 +5.84
2 Derry City 35 30.35 +4.65
3 Ballymena United 25 22.11 +2.89
4 Bangor 18 15.11 +2.89
5 Coleraine 30 27.15 +2.85

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cliftonville 2 8.44 -6.44
2 Lisburn Distillery 18 22.99 -4.99
3 Portadown 18 21.81 -3.81
4 Glentoran 24 26.81 -2.81
5 Ards 16 17.79 -1.79

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Crusaders 5 Jan 23 – Mar 13 1 in 262
2 Bangor 3 Jan 23 – Feb 6 1 in 127
3 Derry City 6 Jan 9 – Feb 27 1 in 40
4 Linfield 4 Dec 26 – Jan 16 1 in 35
5 Ballymena United 4 Mar 6 – Mar 27 1 in 35

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 16 Nov 28 – Mar 20 1 in 329
2 Portadown 4 Jan 16 – Feb 13 1 in 77
3 Ards 6 Feb 13 – Mar 27 1 in 68
4 Lisburn Distillery 4 Jan 16 – Feb 6 1 in 68
5 Glenavon 3 Jan 9 – Jan 23 1 in 41

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Bangor 5 Jan 9 – Feb 6 1 in 63
2 Crusaders 7 Jan 9 – Mar 13 1 in 54
3 Portadown 6 Apr 10 – Apr 29 1 in 45
4 Derry City 13 Nov 28 – Feb 27 1 in 31
5 Ards 4 Jan 9 – Feb 6 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Portadown 7 Dec 25 – Feb 13 1 in 81
2 Glentoran 4 Feb 27 – Apr 3 1 in 46
3 Lisburn Distillery 5 Jan 9 – Feb 6 1 in 14
4 Glenavon 4 Jan 9 – Jan 30 1 in 14
5 Ballymena United 5 Jan 2 – Feb 6 1 in 12

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Derry City 1347 35 -23 6 7.2 -1.2
Coleraine 1343 30 +41 9 6.9 +2.1
Crusaders 1270 27 +74 6 4.3 +1.7
Glenavon 1258 26 -37 3 5.4 -2.4
Ballymena United 1193 25 -4 5 5.2 -0.2
Linfield 1233 25 -21 4 5.4 -1.4
Glentoran 1245 24 +35 8 5.0 +3.0
Portadown 1157 18 +6 6 4.9 +1.1
Lisburn Distillery 1153 18 -4 6 5.6 +0.4
Bangor 1049 18 -30 1 3.8 -2.8
Ards 1043 16 -45 3 4.3 -1.3
Cliftonville 801 2 -32 0 1.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BU BAN CLI COL CRU DC GLE GLE LIN LD POR
Ards —
0-0-2
2.35
0-2-0
3.15
2-0-0
4.16
0-0-2
1.84
0-1-1
2.60
0-1-1
1.39
1-0-1
1.60
0-1-1
1.94
0-1-1
2.29
0-0-2
2.06
2-0-0
1.99
Ballymena United
2-0-0
3.23
 —
1-0-1
3.90
2-0-0
4.60
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
3.17
0-1-1
1.58
2-0-0
2.35
0-0-2
2.14
1-0-1
2.28
1-1-0
2.61
0-1-1
2.66
Bangor
0-2-0
2.44
1-0-1
1.69
 —
2-0-0
4.06
0-0-2
1.23
1-0-1
1.74
0-0-2
1.03
0-0-2
1.29
0-2-0
1.39
0-0-2
1.39
1-0-1
1.88
2-0-0
1.61
Cliftonville
0-0-2
1.45
0-0-2
1.02
0-0-2
1.54
 —
0-0-2
0.62
0-0-2
1.38
0-0-2
0.61
0-0-2
0.78
1-0-1
0.70
0-0-2
0.91
0-0-2
0.91
0-0-2
0.96
Coleraine
2-0-0
3.75
1-1-0
3.32
2-0-0
4.37
2-0-0
5.04
 —
1-0-1
3.88
0-0-2
2.32
1-0-1
3.19
0-1-1
2.82
2-0-0
3.09
2-0-0
3.43
0-2-0
3.27
Crusaders
1-1-0
2.98
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
3.85
2-0-0
4.23
1-0-1
1.71
 —
1-0-1
1.45
2-0-0
1.86
1-0-1
1.84
0-1-1
2.36
2-0-0
2.21
0-2-0
3.22
Derry City
1-1-0
4.22
1-1-0
4.02
2-0-0
4.59
2-0-0
5.05
2-0-0
3.26
1-0-1
4.15
 —
1-0-1
3.44
2-0-0
3.31
1-1-0
3.59
1-1-0
3.80
1-1-0
3.98
Glenavon
1-0-1
4.00
0-0-2
3.23
2-0-0
4.32
2-0-0
4.86
1-0-1
2.39
0-0-2
3.73
1-0-1
2.14
 —
1-0-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.86
2-0-0
2.78
1-1-0
3.42
Glentoran
1-1-0
3.65
2-0-0
3.45
0-2-0
4.21
1-0-1
4.95
1-1-0
2.77
1-0-1
3.75
0-0-2
2.28
1-0-1
3.19
 —
0-1-1
3.14
2-0-0
3.34
0-1-1
3.85
Linfield
1-1-0
3.29
1-0-1
3.31
2-0-0
4.21
2-0-0
4.73
0-0-2
2.49
1-1-0
3.22
0-1-1
1.99
0-1-1
2.72
1-1-0
2.45
 —
0-0-2
3.07
2-0-0
2.94
Lisburn Distillery
2-0-0
3.53
0-1-1
2.97
1-0-1
3.72
2-0-0
4.72
0-0-2
2.15
0-0-2
3.38
0-1-1
1.79
0-0-2
2.81
0-0-2
2.24
2-0-0
2.51
 —
1-0-1
2.85
Portadown
0-0-2
3.60
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
3.98
2-0-0
4.66
0-2-0
2.32
0-2-0
2.37
0-1-1
1.61
0-1-1
2.17
1-1-0
1.74
0-0-2
2.64
1-0-1
2.73
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.77 +5.6
Allowed 0.79 -3.9
Differential 0.89 +2.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.27%3.41%4.17%3.79%2.27%3.03%18.94%
13.41%9.09%4.55%4.92%3.41%2.65%28.03%
24.17%4.55%5.30%3.03%2.27%1.14%20.45%
33.79%4.92%3.03%3.03%1.14%0.38%16.29%
42.27%3.41%2.27%1.14%——9.09%
5+3.03%2.65%1.14%0.38%——7.20%
Total18.94%28.03%20.45%16.29%9.09%7.20%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 2.00 +0.00
SD 1.76 1.76 2.83
CV 0.88 0.88 —
Max 10 10 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%——4.55%—9.09%
14.55%13.64%9.09%—13.64%9.09%50.00%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
34.55%——9.09%——13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total13.64%22.73%18.18%13.64%18.18%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.55 2.50 -0.95
SD 1.01 1.87 2.21
CV 0.65 0.75 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
14.55%4.55%————9.09%
2—9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%27.27%
34.55%9.09%9.09%9.09%—4.55%36.36%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total13.64%31.82%22.73%13.64%9.09%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.27 2.00 +0.27
SD 1.75 1.51 2.23
CV 0.77 0.76 —
Max 8 5 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%4.55%9.09%——18.18%
1—13.64%9.09%4.55%4.55%—31.82%
24.55%—4.55%4.55%4.55%—18.18%
3—13.64%——4.55%—18.18%
4——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total9.09%31.82%22.73%22.73%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.91 2.00 -0.09
SD 1.69 1.23 2.33
CV 0.88 0.62 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—4.55%13.64%22.73%45.45%
1——4.55%13.64%4.55%13.64%36.36%
2———4.55%4.55%4.55%13.64%
34.55%—————4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total4.55%4.55%4.55%22.73%22.73%40.91%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 4.55 -3.77
SD 0.87 2.54 2.88
CV 1.12 0.56 —
Max 3 10 +3
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
1—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
24.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%——27.27%
34.55%9.09%————13.64%
44.55%13.64%4.55%———22.73%
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total22.73%45.45%22.73%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 1.18 +1.27
SD 1.57 0.91 2.03
CV 0.64 0.77 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
24.55%4.55%9.09%—4.55%—22.73%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
5+9.09%—————9.09%
Total31.82%31.82%22.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 1.45 +0.64
SD 1.66 1.82 2.74
CV 0.79 1.25 —
Max 6 8 +6
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———4.55%——4.55%
19.09%9.09%——4.55%—22.73%
213.64%9.09%4.55%———27.27%
3—9.09%4.55%9.09%——22.73%
4———4.55%——4.55%
5+—13.64%—4.55%——18.18%
Total22.73%40.91%9.09%22.73%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.82 1.45 +1.36
SD 2.20 1.22 2.48
CV 0.78 0.84 —
Max 10 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%4.55%——13.64%
1—4.55%9.09%4.55%—4.55%22.73%
2———4.55%4.55%—9.09%
313.64%9.09%9.09%———31.82%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+9.09%—4.55%———13.64%
Total31.82%18.18%27.27%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.77 1.59 +1.18
SD 2.43 1.56 3.39
CV 0.88 0.98 —
Max 10 6 +10
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%—9.09%31.82%
1—13.64%——4.55%—18.18%
29.09%9.09%9.09%———27.27%
3——13.64%———13.64%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+———————
Total18.18%36.36%27.27%4.55%4.55%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.73 -0.23
SD 1.34 1.58 2.41
CV 0.89 0.91 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——4.55%9.09%——13.64%
14.55%13.64%—4.55%4.55%—27.27%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
3—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
4—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
5+4.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
Total13.64%36.36%13.64%27.27%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.45 1.82 +0.64
SD 2.11 1.26 2.77
CV 0.86 0.69 —
Max 8 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——9.09%4.55%—4.55%18.18%
1—4.55%13.64%13.64%4.55%—36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
34.55%—————4.55%
49.09%—9.09%———18.18%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total18.18%13.64%36.36%22.73%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 2.00 -0.14
SD 1.64 1.45 2.73
CV 0.88 0.72 —
Max 6 6 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
19.09%18.18%—9.09%——36.36%
2——9.09%———9.09%
34.55%——4.55%9.09%—18.18%
44.55%—————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total27.27%22.73%18.18%18.18%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.68 -0.18
SD 1.44 1.43 2.13
CV 0.96 0.85 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Derry City 1347 35 30.35 +4.65 92.0% 21 24 28 30 32 36 38
Coleraine 1343 30 27.15 +2.85 81.0% 18 21 25 27 30 33 36
Crusaders 1270 27 21.16 +5.84 93.0% 11 14 18 21 24 29 32
Glenavon 1258 26 25.83 +0.17 54.0% 18 20 23 26 28 31 36
Glentoran 1245 24 26.81 -2.81 27.0% 18 21 24 26 30 32 37
Linfield 1233 25 24.45 +0.55 60.0% 15 18 21 24 27 30 35
Ballymena United 1193 25 22.11 +2.89 81.0% 13 15 19 22 25 28 33
Portadown 1157 18 21.81 -3.81 21.0% 13 15 19 22 24 28 32
Lisburn Distillery 1153 18 22.99 -4.99 7.0% 13 18 21 23 25 29 34
Bangor 1049 18 15.11 +2.89 83.0% 6 9 13 15 17 20 26
Ards 1043 16 17.79 -1.79 40.0% 10 13 15 18 20 25 28
Cliftonville 801 2 8.44 -6.44 0.0% 3 4 6 8 10 14 15

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.12%
Slight Edge
46.21%19.70%34.09%
Elo Value
Home Edge
139 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
042.32400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.23 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Derry City, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.23/gm
Comfortable
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.94 * Some Luck: 2.94 to 4.42 * Lucky: 4.42 to 5.89 * Wild Swing: 5.89 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.27 * Close: 1.27 to 1.91 * Off: 1.91 to 2.55 * Way Off: 2.55 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.80 points
Some Luck
03.689
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.67
Close
01.594
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
93.00%
Crusaders
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
0.00%
Cliftonville
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Even
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 152.82
2.00
Moderate Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
68%
Even
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
96%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
44%
Few
0%40%100%
Blowouts
Expected
33%
Very Frequent
0%38%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Highly Predictable
00.562
Matchup Imbalance
0.42
Slight Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.21
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.49
Some Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
Very Shaky
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.46
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.90
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.107
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Derry City52.00%22.00%8.00%9.00%6.00%1.00%—2.00%————
Coleraine8.00%32.00%20.00%13.00%6.00%7.00%7.00%5.00%1.00%1.00%——
Crusaders1.00%3.00%2.00%9.00%12.00%8.00%18.00%13.00%15.00%14.00%5.00%—
Glenavon12.00%12.00%22.00%11.00%12.00%14.00%6.00%7.00%4.00%———
Linfield7.00%5.00%12.00%23.00%9.00%11.00%11.00%14.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%—
Ballymena United3.00%3.00%7.00%5.00%14.00%14.00%15.00%7.00%16.00%13.00%3.00%—
Glentoran13.00%14.00%22.00%10.00%16.00%10.00%8.00%4.00%3.00%———
Bangor———1.00%——2.00%3.00%13.00%19.00%55.00%7.00%
Lisburn Distillery3.00%4.00%3.00%8.00%14.00%17.00%16.00%17.00%12.00%4.00%2.00%—
Portadown1.00%4.00%3.00%8.00%10.00%15.00%12.00%17.00%13.00%12.00%5.00%—
Ards—1.00%1.00%3.00%1.00%3.00%5.00%11.00%18.00%35.00%20.00%2.00%
Cliftonville——————————9.00%91.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ards 100%
Ballymena United 100%
Bangor 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Coleraine 100%
Crusaders 100%
Derry City 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Portadown 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1964-11-28 Crusaders W 2-043.2 975 1144 25.87% 20.56% 53.57%-0.91 +22.7 2
1964-11-28 @ Bangor L 0-243.2 1144 975 53.57% 20.56% 25.87%+0.91 -22.6 0
1964-11-28 Ards L 1-240.6 944 1119 25.19% 20.53% 54.29%-0.95 -6.0 0
1964-11-28 @ Cliftonville W 2-140.6 1119 944 54.29% 20.53% 25.19%+0.95 +6.0 2
1964-11-28 Portadown W 4-347.9 1295 1193 59.90% 20.46% 19.64%+1.03 +4.5 2
1964-11-28 @ Derry City L 3-447.9 1193 1295 19.64% 20.46% 59.90%-1.03 -4.5 0
1964-11-28 Coleraine W 3-144.9 1153 1243 35.88% 20.84% 43.28%-0.34 +16.3 2
1964-11-28 @ Glenavon L 1-344.9 1243 1153 43.28% 20.84% 35.88%+0.34 -16.3 0
1964-11-28 Ballymena United W 3-242.2 1380 1191 67.29% 19.82% 12.89%+1.66 +3.2 2
1964-11-28 @ Glentoran L 2-342.2 1191 1380 12.89% 19.82% 67.29%-1.66 -3.2 0
1964-11-28 Lisburn Distillery L 0-338.7 1210 1247 43.24% 20.89% 35.87%+0.04 -27.3 0
1964-11-28 @ Linfield W 3-038.7 1247 1210 35.87% 20.89% 43.24%-0.04 +27.3 2
1964-12-05 Derry City D 3-361.1 1125 1299 25.29% 20.53% 54.18%-0.95 +0.9 3
1964-12-05 @ Ards D 3-361.1 1299 1125 54.18% 20.53% 25.29%+0.95 -0.9 3
1964-12-05 Cliftonville W 3-134.0 1188 938 71.35% 19.21% 9.45%+2.10 +4.3 2
1964-12-05 @ Ballymena United L 1-334.0 938 1188 9.45% 19.21% 71.35%-2.10 -4.3 0
1964-12-05 Bangor W 4-132.9 1227 997 70.06% 19.43% 10.51%+1.95 +6.7 2
1964-12-05 @ Coleraine L 1-432.9 997 1227 10.51% 19.43% 70.06%-1.95 -6.7 2
1964-12-05 Linfield L 1-838.7 1121 1182 39.85% 20.88% 39.27%-0.14 -46.6 0
1964-12-05 @ Crusaders W 8-138.7 1182 1121 39.27% 20.88% 39.85%+0.14 +46.6 2
1964-12-05 Glenavon L 1-448.4 1274 1169 60.21% 20.44% 19.34%+1.06 -31.1 2
1964-12-05 @ Lisburn Distillery W 4-148.4 1169 1274 19.34% 20.44% 60.21%-1.06 +31.1 4
1964-12-05 Glentoran W 5-041.5 1189 1383 23.11% 20.41% 56.48%-1.09 +55.6 2
1964-12-05 @ Portadown L 0-541.5 1383 1189 56.48% 20.41% 23.11%+1.09 -55.6 2
1964-12-12 Linfield L 3-447.2 991 1229 18.87% 20.11% 61.02%-1.41 -4.3 2
1964-12-12 @ Bangor W 4-347.2 1229 991 61.02% 20.11% 18.87%+1.41 +4.3 4
1964-12-12 Portadown L 0-427.9 934 1244 13.33% 19.46% 67.21%-1.93 -12.9 0
1964-12-12 @ Cliftonville W 4-027.9 1244 934 67.21% 19.46% 13.33%+1.93 +12.9 4
1964-12-12 Crusaders W 3-134.7 1299 1074 69.73% 19.48% 10.79%+1.91 +4.9 5
1964-12-12 @ Derry City L 1-334.7 1074 1299 10.79% 19.48% 69.73%-1.91 -4.9 0
1964-12-12 Ballymena United L 1-248.2 1201 1193 49.29% 20.83% 29.87%+0.36 -10.5 4
1964-12-12 @ Glenavon W 2-148.2 1193 1201 29.87% 20.83% 49.29%-0.36 +10.5 4
1964-12-12 Coleraine W 3-244.6 1328 1233 59.16% 20.50% 20.34%+0.98 +4.8 4
1964-12-12 @ Glentoran L 2-344.6 1233 1328 20.34% 20.50% 59.16%-0.98 -4.8 2
1964-12-12 Ards W 2-138.7 1243 1126 61.39% 20.37% 18.25%+1.15 +4.6 4
1964-12-12 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-238.7 1126 1243 18.25% 20.37% 61.39%-1.15 -4.6 3
1964-12-19 Bangor D 1-152.1 1122 986 63.02% 20.25% 16.73%+1.27 -2.5 4
1964-12-19 @ Ards D 1-152.1 986 1122 16.73% 20.25% 63.02%-1.27 +2.5 3
1964-12-19 Portadown L 0-142.0 1203 1257 40.90% 20.88% 38.21%-0.08 -9.5 4
1964-12-19 @ Ballymena United W 1-042.0 1257 1203 38.21% 20.88% 40.90%+0.08 +9.5 6
1964-12-19 Lisburn Distillery W 3-148.1 1070 1248 24.83% 20.51% 54.66%-0.98 +20.0 2
1964-12-19 @ Crusaders L 1-348.1 1248 1070 54.66% 20.51% 24.83%+0.98 -20.0 4
1964-12-19 Cliftonville W 10-126.8 1303 921 77.65% 17.55% 4.80%+3.05 +8.4 7
1964-12-19 @ Derry City L 1-1026.8 921 1303 4.80% 17.55% 77.65%-3.05 -8.4 0
1964-12-19 Glentoran W 6-039.7 1190 1332 29.03% 20.68% 50.29%-0.72 +59.4 6
1964-12-19 @ Glenavon L 0-639.7 1332 1190 50.29% 20.68% 29.03%+0.72 -59.4 4
1964-12-19 Coleraine L 1-445.1 1233 1228 48.89% 20.84% 30.27%+0.34 -25.6 4
1964-12-19 @ Linfield W 4-145.1 1228 1233 30.27% 20.84% 48.89%-0.34 +25.6 4
1964-12-24 Crusaders L 0-332.8 912 1090 24.97% 20.51% 54.52%-0.97 -17.4 0
1964-12-24 @ Cliftonville W 3-032.8 1090 912 54.52% 20.51% 24.97%+0.97 +17.4 4
1964-12-25 Ballymena United D 2-256.7 1254 1194 55.57% 20.67% 23.76%+0.74 -1.2 5
1964-12-25 @ Coleraine D 2-256.7 1194 1254 23.76% 20.67% 55.57%-0.74 +1.2 5
1964-12-25 Derry City L 0-143.1 1273 1312 43.04% 20.89% 36.07%+0.02 -9.9 4
1964-12-25 @ Glentoran W 1-043.1 1312 1273 36.07% 20.89% 43.04%-0.02 +9.9 9
1964-12-25 Glenavon L 0-338.6 1208 1249 42.64% 20.89% 36.47%+0.00 -27.0 4
1964-12-25 @ Linfield W 3-038.6 1249 1208 36.47% 20.89% 42.64%+0.00 +27.0 8
1964-12-25 Ards L 0-148.6 1267 1119 64.09% 20.16% 15.76%+1.36 -14.3 6
1964-12-25 @ Portadown W 1-048.6 1119 1267 15.76% 20.16% 64.09%-1.36 +14.3 6
1964-12-26 Linfield L 0-142.0 1133 1181 41.85% 20.89% 37.26%-0.04 -9.7 6
1964-12-26 @ Ards W 1-042.0 1181 1133 37.26% 20.89% 41.85%+0.04 +9.7 6
1964-12-26 Bangor W 3-028.6 1195 989 68.54% 19.66% 11.81%+1.78 +8.9 7
1964-12-26 @ Ballymena United L 0-328.6 989 1195 11.81% 19.66% 68.54%-1.78 -8.9 3
1964-12-26 Coleraine W 1-036.9 1322 1253 56.49% 20.63% 22.87%+0.80 +5.9 11
1964-12-26 @ Derry City L 0-136.9 1253 1322 22.87% 20.63% 56.49%-0.80 -5.9 5
1964-12-26 Cliftonville W 3-238.4 1276 895 77.60% 17.57% 4.83%+3.04 +1.2 10
1964-12-26 @ Glenavon L 2-338.4 895 1276 4.83% 17.57% 77.60%-3.04 -1.2 0
1964-12-28 Ards D 2-256.7 1263 1124 63.37% 20.22% 16.42%+1.30 -1.9 5
1964-12-28 @ Glentoran D 2-256.7 1124 1263 16.42% 20.22% 63.37%-1.30 +1.9 7
1965-01-02 Coleraine L 1-538.4 1126 1247 31.64% 20.76% 47.60%-0.57 -23.1 7
1965-01-02 @ Ards W 5-138.4 1247 1126 47.60% 20.76% 31.64%+0.57 +23.1 7
1965-01-02 Linfield L 1-532.7 894 1190 14.28% 19.60% 66.12%-1.82 -11.5 0
1965-01-02 @ Cliftonville W 5-132.7 1190 894 66.12% 19.60% 14.28%+1.82 +11.5 8
1965-01-02 Ballymena United D 3-361.5 1328 1204 61.99% 20.32% 17.68%+1.19 -1.5 12
1965-01-02 @ Derry City D 3-361.5 1204 1328 17.68% 20.32% 61.99%-1.19 +1.5 8
1965-01-02 Bangor W 3-027.1 1278 980 73.92% 18.66% 7.42%+2.44 +5.6 12
1965-01-02 @ Glenavon L 0-327.1 980 1278 7.42% 18.66% 73.92%-2.44 -5.6 3
1965-01-02 Crusaders W 2-137.7 1261 1107 64.62% 20.11% 15.27%+1.41 +3.9 7
1965-01-02 @ Glentoran L 1-237.7 1107 1261 15.27% 20.11% 64.62%-1.41 -3.9 4
1965-01-02 Portadown W 2-037.8 1228 1252 45.02% 20.88% 34.10%+0.13 +15.5 6
1965-01-02 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-237.8 1252 1228 34.10% 20.88% 45.02%-0.13 -15.5 6
1965-01-09 Lisburn Distillery D 1-152.2 1205 1244 43.11% 20.89% 36.00%+0.03 -0.4 9
1965-01-09 @ Ballymena United D 1-152.2 1244 1205 36.00% 20.89% 43.11%-0.03 +0.3 7
1965-01-09 Cliftonville W 7-030.6 974 882 58.90% 20.52% 20.58%+0.96 +32.7 5
1965-01-09 @ Bangor L 0-730.6 882 974 20.58% 20.52% 58.90%-0.96 -32.7 0
1965-01-09 Ards D 1-151.9 1103 1102 48.35% 20.85% 30.80%+0.31 -0.9 5
1965-01-09 @ Crusaders D 1-151.9 1102 1103 30.80% 20.85% 48.35%-0.31 +0.9 8
1965-01-09 Glenavon W 6-136.4 1326 1283 53.56% 20.74% 25.70%+0.61 +23.8 14
1965-01-09 @ Derry City L 1-636.4 1283 1326 25.70% 20.74% 53.56%-0.61 -23.8 12
1965-01-09 Glentoran W 4-142.3 1202 1265 39.62% 20.88% 39.50%-0.15 +21.4 10
1965-01-09 @ Linfield L 1-442.3 1265 1202 39.50% 20.88% 39.62%+0.15 -21.4 7
1965-01-09 Coleraine D 2-256.8 1237 1270 43.84% 20.89% 35.28%+0.07 -0.3 7
1965-01-09 @ Portadown D 2-256.8 1270 1237 35.28% 20.89% 43.84%-0.07 +0.3 8
1965-01-16 Glenavon W 2-042.9 1103 1259 27.36% 20.62% 52.02%-0.82 +22.1 10
1965-01-16 @ Ards L 0-242.9 1259 1103 52.02% 20.62% 27.36%+0.82 -22.0 12
1965-01-16 Cliftonville W 4-130.2 1270 850 79.05% 17.00% 3.95%+3.32 +2.5 10
1965-01-16 @ Coleraine L 1-430.2 850 1270 3.95% 17.00% 79.05%-3.32 -2.5 0
1965-01-16 Ballymena United D 0-049.0 1102 1205 34.11% 20.81% 45.08%-0.43 +0.6 6
1965-01-16 @ Crusaders D 0-049.0 1205 1102 45.08% 20.81% 34.11%+0.43 -0.6 10
1965-01-16 Bangor D 1-152.4 1244 1007 70.52% 19.35% 10.12%+2.00 -3.3 8
1965-01-16 @ Glentoran D 1-152.4 1007 1244 10.12% 19.35% 70.52%-2.00 +3.3 6
1965-01-16 Derry City L 2-348.8 1244 1350 33.65% 20.80% 45.55%-0.46 -7.3 7
1965-01-16 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-248.8 1350 1244 45.55% 20.80% 33.65%+0.46 +7.3 16
1965-01-16 Linfield L 1-347.0 1237 1223 49.97% 20.82% 29.21%+0.40 -18.4 7
1965-01-16 @ Portadown W 3-147.0 1223 1237 29.21% 20.82% 49.97%-0.40 +18.5 12
1965-01-23 Portadown W 4-358.9 1010 1218 21.73% 20.33% 57.94%-1.19 +11.3 8
1965-01-23 @ Bangor L 3-458.9 1218 1010 57.94% 20.33% 21.73%+1.19 -11.3 7
1965-01-23 Glentoran L 0-426.3 847 1240 8.84% 18.53% 72.63%-2.52 -8.7 0
1965-01-23 @ Cliftonville W 4-026.3 1240 847 72.63% 18.53% 8.84%+2.52 +8.7 10
1965-01-23 Lisburn Distillery W 2-141.6 1273 1237 52.78% 20.76% 26.46%+0.56 +6.3 12
1965-01-23 @ Coleraine L 1-241.6 1237 1273 26.46% 20.76% 52.78%-0.56 -6.3 7
1965-01-23 Crusaders L 2-455.0 1237 1103 62.96% 20.25% 16.79%+1.27 -20.5 12
1965-01-23 @ Glenavon W 4-255.0 1103 1237 16.79% 20.25% 62.96%-1.27 +20.5 8
1965-01-30 Portadown W 3-038.2 1125 1207 37.01% 20.86% 42.14%-0.28 +26.7 12
1965-01-30 @ Ards L 0-338.2 1207 1125 42.14% 20.86% 37.01%+0.28 -26.7 7
1965-01-30 Coleraine L 0-436.1 1204 1279 37.94% 20.87% 41.20%-0.23 -32.1 10
1965-01-30 @ Ballymena United W 4-036.1 1279 1204 41.20% 20.87% 37.94%+0.23 +32.1 14
1965-01-30 Cliftonville W 5-025.7 1123 839 73.25% 18.82% 7.94%+2.35 +9.7 10
1965-01-30 @ Crusaders L 0-525.7 839 1123 7.94% 18.82% 73.25%-2.35 -9.7 0
1965-01-30 Glentoran W 2-033.8 1357 1249 60.54% 20.42% 19.04%+1.08 +9.5 18
1965-01-30 @ Derry City L 0-233.8 1249 1357 19.04% 20.42% 60.54%-1.08 -9.5 10
1965-01-30 Linfield D 1-152.2 1217 1242 44.97% 20.88% 34.15%+0.13 -0.5 13
1965-01-30 @ Glenavon D 1-152.2 1242 1217 34.15% 20.88% 44.97%-0.13 +0.5 13
1965-01-30 Bangor L 1-352.0 1230 1021 68.72% 19.63% 11.65%+1.80 -25.1 7
1965-01-30 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-152.0 1021 1230 11.65% 19.63% 68.72%-1.80 +25.1 10
1965-02-06 Ballymena United W 4-250.6 1046 1172 31.10% 20.74% 48.15%-0.60 +16.0 12
1965-02-06 @ Bangor L 2-450.6 1172 1046 48.15% 20.74% 31.10%+0.60 -15.9 10
1965-02-06 Glenavon L 0-1027.7 829 1216 9.09% 18.60% 72.31%-2.48 -21.2 0
1965-02-06 @ Cliftonville W 10-027.7 1216 829 72.31% 18.60% 9.09%+2.48 +21.2 15
1965-02-06 Derry City L 1-247.0 1311 1367 40.70% 20.88% 38.41%-0.09 -9.0 14
1965-02-06 @ Coleraine W 2-147.0 1367 1311 38.41% 20.88% 40.70%+0.09 +9.0 20
1965-02-06 Lisburn Distillery W 2-035.5 1239 1205 52.54% 20.77% 26.70%+0.55 +12.7 12
1965-02-06 @ Glentoran L 0-235.5 1205 1239 26.70% 20.77% 52.54%-0.55 -12.7 7
1965-02-06 Ards D 3-361.1 1242 1152 58.74% 20.53% 20.73%+0.95 -1.2 14
1965-02-06 @ Linfield D 3-361.1 1152 1242 20.73% 20.53% 58.74%-0.95 +1.2 13
1965-02-13 Glentoran L 1-440.7 1153 1252 34.63% 20.82% 44.54%-0.41 -19.2 13
1965-02-13 @ Ards W 4-140.7 1252 1153 44.54% 20.82% 34.63%+0.41 +19.2 14
1965-02-13 Linfield W 3-250.9 1156 1241 36.54% 20.85% 42.61%-0.31 +8.8 12
1965-02-13 @ Ballymena United L 2-350.9 1241 1156 42.61% 20.85% 36.54%+0.31 -8.8 14
1965-02-13 Coleraine W 2-043.5 1133 1302 25.85% 20.56% 53.59%-0.91 +22.7 12
1965-02-13 @ Crusaders L 0-243.5 1302 1133 53.59% 20.56% 25.85%+0.91 -22.7 14
1965-02-13 Bangor W 2-134.8 1376 1062 74.67% 18.47% 6.86%+2.55 +1.8 22
1965-02-13 @ Derry City L 1-234.8 1062 1376 6.86% 18.47% 74.67%-2.55 -1.8 12
1965-02-13 Portadown W 4-031.7 1238 1180 55.23% 20.68% 24.09%+0.72 +22.1 17
1965-02-13 @ Glenavon L 0-431.7 1180 1238 24.09% 20.68% 55.23%-0.72 -22.1 7
1965-02-13 Cliftonville W 6-128.2 1192 808 77.74% 17.52% 4.75%+3.07 +4.8 9
1965-02-13 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-628.2 808 1192 4.75% 17.52% 77.74%-3.07 -4.8 0
1965-02-27 Derry City L 3-545.9 1165 1377 21.29% 20.30% 58.41%-1.22 -7.6 12
1965-02-27 @ Ballymena United W 5-345.9 1377 1165 58.41% 20.30% 21.29%+1.22 +7.6 24
1965-02-27 Glenavon L 2-344.6 1061 1260 22.64% 20.39% 56.97%-1.12 -5.2 12
1965-02-27 @ Bangor W 3-244.6 1260 1061 56.97% 20.39% 22.64%+1.12 +5.2 19
1965-02-27 Ards W 2-138.0 1280 1134 63.90% 20.17% 15.92%+1.35 +4.0 16
1965-02-27 @ Coleraine L 1-238.0 1134 1280 15.92% 20.17% 63.90%-1.35 -4.0 13
1965-02-27 Glentoran W 1-043.6 1156 1271 32.39% 20.78% 46.84%-0.53 +10.7 14
1965-02-27 @ Crusaders L 0-143.6 1271 1156 46.84% 20.78% 32.39%+0.53 -10.7 14
1965-02-27 Cliftonville W 6-024.1 1232 803 79.35% 16.88% 3.77%+3.38 +5.4 16
1965-02-27 @ Linfield L 0-624.1 803 1232 3.77% 16.88% 79.35%-3.38 -5.4 0
1965-02-27 Lisburn Distillery W 3-036.4 1158 1197 42.99% 20.89% 36.12%+0.02 +23.6 9
1965-02-27 @ Portadown L 0-336.4 1197 1158 36.12% 20.89% 42.99%-0.02 -23.6 9
1965-03-06 Ballymena United L 2-351.4 1130 1157 44.63% 20.88% 34.49%+0.11 -9.2 13
1965-03-06 @ Ards W 3-251.4 1157 1130 34.49% 20.88% 44.63%-0.11 +9.2 14
1965-03-13 Crusaders L 1-442.8 1121 1166 42.12% 20.89% 37.00%-0.02 -22.5 13
1965-03-13 @ Ards W 4-142.8 1166 1121 37.00% 20.89% 42.12%+0.02 +22.5 16
1965-03-13 Bangor L 1-336.6 797 1055 17.21% 19.95% 62.84%-1.55 -7.5 0
1965-03-13 @ Cliftonville W 3-136.6 1055 797 62.84% 19.95% 17.21%+1.55 +7.5 14
1965-03-13 Portadown D 1-152.3 1284 1182 59.92% 20.46% 19.62%+1.04 -2.1 17
1965-03-13 @ Coleraine D 1-152.3 1182 1284 19.62% 20.46% 59.92%-1.04 +2.1 10
1965-03-13 Derry City W 3-041.0 1265 1385 31.80% 20.76% 47.44%-0.56 +29.5 21
1965-03-13 @ Glenavon L 0-341.0 1385 1265 47.44% 20.76% 31.80%+0.56 -29.5 24
1965-03-13 Linfield D 1-152.3 1261 1238 51.19% 20.80% 28.01%+0.47 -1.2 15
1965-03-13 @ Glentoran D 1-152.3 1238 1261 28.01% 20.80% 51.19%-0.47 +1.2 17
1965-03-13 Ballymena United L 1-248.1 1174 1167 49.18% 20.84% 29.98%+0.35 -10.5 9
1965-03-13 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-148.1 1167 1174 29.98% 20.84% 49.18%-0.35 +10.5 16
1965-03-20 Crusaders W 1-039.3 1177 1189 46.71% 20.87% 32.42%+0.22 +7.9 18
1965-03-20 @ Ballymena United L 0-139.3 1189 1177 32.42% 20.87% 46.71%-0.22 -7.9 16
1965-03-20 Glentoran D 2-256.6 1063 1260 22.89% 20.40% 56.71%-1.11 +1.3 15
1965-03-20 @ Bangor D 2-256.6 1260 1063 56.71% 20.40% 22.89%+1.11 -1.3 16
1965-03-20 Coleraine L 0-524.5 790 1282 5.36% 17.20% 77.44%-3.22 -6.4 0
1965-03-20 @ Cliftonville W 5-024.5 1282 790 77.44% 17.20% 5.36%+3.22 +6.4 19
1965-03-20 Lisburn Distillery D 2-257.2 1356 1163 67.57% 19.78% 12.64%+1.68 -2.2 25
1965-03-20 @ Derry City D 2-257.2 1163 1356 12.64% 19.78% 67.57%-1.68 +2.2 10
1965-03-20 Ards W 7-233.5 1294 1098 67.83% 19.75% 12.42%+1.71 +10.4 23
1965-03-20 @ Glenavon L 2-733.5 1098 1294 12.42% 19.75% 67.83%-1.71 -10.4 13
1965-03-20 Portadown W 2-034.7 1239 1184 54.95% 20.69% 24.35%+0.70 +11.8 19
1965-03-20 @ Linfield L 0-234.7 1184 1239 24.35% 20.69% 54.95%-0.70 -11.8 10
1965-03-27 Ards W 4-136.1 1185 1088 59.43% 20.49% 20.08%+1.00 +12.2 20
1965-03-27 @ Ballymena United L 1-436.1 1088 1185 20.08% 20.49% 59.43%-1.00 -12.2 13
1965-03-27 Derry City L 0-231.6 1064 1353 14.81% 19.67% 65.52%-1.77 -7.5 15
1965-03-27 @ Bangor W 2-031.6 1353 1064 65.52% 19.67% 14.81%+1.77 +7.5 27
1965-03-27 Crusaders D 2-256.5 1172 1181 47.10% 20.86% 32.03%+0.24 -0.5 11
1965-03-27 @ Portadown D 2-256.5 1181 1172 32.03% 20.86% 47.10%-0.24 +0.5 17
1965-04-03 Glenavon W 2-147.9 1182 1305 31.41% 20.75% 47.84%-0.58 +10.2 19
1965-04-03 @ Crusaders L 1-247.9 1305 1182 47.84% 20.75% 31.41%+0.58 -10.2 23
1965-04-03 Linfield W 2-033.8 1361 1251 60.73% 20.41% 18.86%+1.10 +9.4 29
1965-04-03 @ Derry City L 0-233.8 1251 1361 18.86% 20.41% 60.73%-1.10 -9.4 19
1965-04-03 Cliftonville L 0-348.3 1258 784 80.82% 16.20% 2.98%+3.71 -48.6 16
1965-04-03 @ Glentoran W 3-048.3 784 1258 2.98% 16.20% 80.82%-3.71 +48.6 2
1965-04-03 Coleraine L 0-237.0 1165 1288 31.49% 20.75% 47.75%-0.58 -14.5 10
1965-04-03 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-037.0 1288 1165 47.75% 20.75% 31.49%+0.58 +14.5 21
1965-04-03 Bangor L 1-349.9 1172 1057 61.15% 20.38% 18.46%+1.13 -22.3 11
1965-04-03 @ Portadown W 3-149.9 1057 1172 18.46% 20.38% 61.15%-1.13 +22.3 17
1965-04-07 Ballymena United W 5-241.8 1241 1197 53.70% 20.73% 25.57%+0.62 +13.0 21
1965-04-07 @ Linfield L 2-541.8 1197 1241 25.57% 20.73% 53.70%-0.62 -13.0 20
1965-04-10 Cliftonville W 4-238.6 1076 832 70.94% 19.28% 9.78%+2.05 +4.0 15
1965-04-10 @ Ards L 2-438.6 832 1076 9.78% 19.28% 70.94%-2.05 -4.0 2
1965-04-10 Glentoran L 0-240.9 1184 1210 44.88% 20.88% 34.24%+0.12 -19.4 20
1965-04-10 @ Ballymena United W 2-040.9 1210 1184 34.24% 20.88% 44.88%-0.12 +19.4 18
1965-04-10 Glenavon W 3-035.3 1302 1295 49.29% 20.83% 29.87%+0.36 +20.2 23
1965-04-10 @ Coleraine L 0-335.3 1295 1302 29.87% 20.83% 49.29%-0.36 -20.2 23
1965-04-10 Bangor W 1-034.9 1192 1079 60.96% 20.40% 18.64%+1.11 +4.9 21
1965-04-10 @ Crusaders L 0-134.9 1079 1192 18.64% 20.40% 60.96%-1.11 -4.9 17
1965-04-10 Linfield W 4-249.9 1151 1254 34.03% 20.81% 45.16%-0.44 +15.1 12
1965-04-10 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-449.9 1254 1151 45.16% 20.81% 34.03%+0.44 -15.1 21
1965-04-10 Derry City D 1-152.6 1149 1370 20.47% 20.24% 59.29%-1.28 +2.0 12
1965-04-10 @ Portadown D 1-152.6 1370 1149 59.29% 20.24% 20.47%+1.28 -2.0 30
1965-04-13 Glenavon W 3-249.4 1229 1274 42.14% 20.89% 36.97%-0.02 +7.9 20
1965-04-13 @ Glentoran L 2-349.4 1274 1229 36.97% 20.89% 42.14%+0.02 -7.9 23
1965-04-14 Crusaders W 4-241.7 1323 1197 62.19% 20.31% 17.50%+1.21 +6.8 25
1965-04-14 @ Coleraine L 2-441.7 1197 1323 17.50% 20.31% 62.19%-1.21 -6.8 21
1965-04-17 Coleraine L 1-336.8 1074 1330 17.41% 19.97% 62.62%-1.53 -7.5 17
1965-04-17 @ Bangor W 3-136.8 1330 1074 62.62% 19.97% 17.41%+1.53 +7.5 27
1965-04-17 Ballymena United L 2-831.6 828 1165 11.74% 19.19% 69.07%-2.11 -11.4 2
1965-04-17 @ Cliftonville W 8-231.6 1165 828 69.07% 19.19% 11.74%+2.11 +11.4 22
1965-04-17 Ards W 5-130.8 1368 1080 73.44% 18.77% 7.79%+2.37 +6.4 32
1965-04-17 @ Derry City L 1-530.8 1080 1368 7.79% 18.77% 73.44%-2.37 -6.5 15
1965-04-17 Lisburn Distillery W 3-137.8 1266 1166 59.78% 20.47% 19.75%+1.02 +8.5 25
1965-04-17 @ Glenavon L 1-337.8 1166 1266 19.75% 20.47% 59.78%-1.02 -8.5 12
1965-04-17 Portadown D 1-152.2 1237 1151 58.27% 20.55% 21.18%+0.92 -1.9 21
1965-04-17 @ Glentoran D 1-152.2 1151 1237 21.18% 20.55% 58.27%-0.92 +1.9 13
1965-04-17 Crusaders D 2-256.6 1239 1190 54.29% 20.71% 25.00%+0.66 -1.1 22
1965-04-17 @ Linfield D 2-256.6 1190 1239 25.00% 20.71% 54.29%-0.66 +1.1 22
1965-04-19 Lisburn Distillery L 0-435.4 1073 1157 36.64% 20.85% 42.51%-0.30 -31.2 15
1965-04-19 @ Ards W 4-035.4 1157 1073 42.51% 20.85% 36.64%+0.30 +31.2 14
1965-04-19 Glentoran D 0-049.8 1337 1235 59.94% 20.46% 19.60%+1.04 -2.4 28
1965-04-19 @ Coleraine D 0-049.8 1235 1337 19.60% 20.46% 59.94%-1.04 +2.4 22
1965-04-19 Derry City W 4-147.3 1191 1375 24.26% 20.48% 55.26%-1.01 +28.6 24
1965-04-19 @ Crusaders L 1-447.3 1375 1191 55.26% 20.48% 24.26%+1.01 -28.6 32
1965-04-19 Ballymena United D 3-360.9 1153 1176 45.22% 20.88% 33.90%+0.14 -0.3 14
1965-04-19 @ Portadown D 3-360.9 1176 1153 33.90% 20.88% 45.22%-0.14 +0.4 23
1965-04-20 Glenavon W 3-145.3 1176 1275 34.68% 20.82% 44.50%-0.40 +16.7 25
1965-04-20 @ Ballymena United L 1-345.3 1275 1176 44.50% 20.82% 34.68%+0.40 -16.7 25
1965-04-20 Bangor W 2-137.2 1238 1067 66.00% 19.97% 14.03%+1.53 +3.6 24
1965-04-20 @ Linfield L 1-237.2 1067 1238 14.03% 19.97% 66.00%-1.53 -3.6 17
1965-04-20 Cliftonville W 1-030.4 1153 817 75.72% 18.18% 6.10%+2.71 +1.7 16
1965-04-20 @ Portadown L 0-130.4 817 1153 6.10% 18.18% 75.72%-2.71 -1.7 2
1965-04-21 Crusaders L 0-637.6 1189 1220 44.14% 20.88% 34.98%+0.08 -53.1 14
1965-04-21 @ Lisburn Distillery W 6-037.6 1220 1189 34.98% 20.88% 44.14%-0.08 +53.1 26
1965-04-23 Glentoran L 1-243.6 1136 1237 34.23% 20.81% 44.96%-0.43 -7.8 14
1965-04-23 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-143.6 1237 1136 44.96% 20.81% 34.23%+0.43 +7.8 24
1965-04-26 Ards D 1-151.9 1063 1042 50.92% 20.80% 28.28%+0.45 -1.1 18
1965-04-26 @ Bangor D 1-151.9 1042 1063 28.28% 20.80% 50.92%-0.45 +1.2 16
1965-04-26 Derry City D 1-152.8 1241 1346 33.85% 20.81% 45.34%-0.45 +0.6 25
1965-04-26 @ Linfield D 1-152.8 1346 1241 45.34% 20.81% 33.85%+0.45 -0.6 33
1965-04-27 Lisburn Distillery L 0-427.9 815 1128 13.21% 19.44% 67.35%-1.94 -12.8 2
1965-04-27 @ Cliftonville W 4-027.9 1128 815 67.35% 19.44% 13.21%+1.94 +12.8 16
1965-04-27 Portadown D 1-152.3 1273 1155 61.47% 20.36% 18.17%+1.15 -2.3 27
1965-04-27 @ Crusaders D 1-152.3 1155 1273 18.17% 20.36% 61.47%-1.15 +2.3 17
1965-04-29 Lisburn Distillery L 2-447.4 1062 1140 37.40% 20.86% 41.74%-0.26 -13.0 18
1965-04-29 @ Bangor W 4-247.4 1140 1062 41.74% 20.86% 37.40%+0.26 +13.0 18
1965-04-29 Derry City L 1-331.6 802 1346 4.11% 16.44% 79.45%-3.59 -1.8 2
1965-04-29 @ Cliftonville W 3-131.6 1346 802 79.45% 16.44% 4.11%+3.59 +1.8 35
1965-04-29 Glenavon D 0-049.1 1157 1258 34.28% 20.81% 44.91%-0.42 +0.6 18
1965-04-29 @ Portadown D 0-049.1 1258 1157 44.91% 20.81% 34.28%+0.42 -0.6 26
1965-04-30 Linfield W 3-138.5 1335 1242 58.99% 20.51% 20.49%+0.97 +8.8 30
1965-04-30 @ Coleraine L 1-338.5 1242 1335 20.49% 20.51% 58.99%-0.97 -8.8 25

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1965-04-03 2.98% Cliftonville 784 3 @ Glentoran 1258 0
2 1965-01-30 11.65% Bangor 1021 3 @ Lisburn Distillery 1230 1
3 1964-12-25 15.76% Ards 1119 1 @ Portadown 1267 0
4 1965-01-23 16.79% Crusaders 1103 4 @ Glenavon 1237 2
5 1965-04-03 18.46% Bangor 1057 3 @ Portadown 1172 1
6 1964-12-05 19.34% Glenavon 1169 4 @ Lisburn Distillery 1274 1
7 1965-01-23 21.73% @ Bangor 1010 4 Portadown 1218 3
8 1964-12-05 23.11% @ Portadown 1189 5 Glentoran 1383 0
9 1965-04-19 24.26% @ Crusaders 1191 4 Derry City 1375 1
10 1964-12-19 24.83% @ Crusaders 1070 3 Lisburn Distillery 1248 1
11 1965-02-13 25.85% @ Crusaders 1133 2 Coleraine 1302 0
12 1964-11-28 25.87% @ Bangor 975 2 Crusaders 1144 0
13 1965-01-16 27.36% @ Ards 1103 2 Glenavon 1259 0
14 1964-12-19 29.03% @ Glenavon 1190 6 Glentoran 1332 0
15 1965-01-16 29.21% Linfield 1223 3 @ Portadown 1237 1
16 1964-12-12 29.87% Ballymena United 1193 2 @ Glenavon 1201 1
17 1965-03-13 29.98% Ballymena United 1167 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1174 1
18 1964-12-19 30.27% Coleraine 1228 4 @ Linfield 1233 1
19 1965-02-06 31.10% @ Bangor 1046 4 Ballymena United 1172 2
20 1965-04-03 31.41% @ Crusaders 1182 2 Glenavon 1305 1
21 1965-03-13 31.80% @ Glenavon 1265 3 Derry City 1385 0
22 1965-02-27 32.39% @ Crusaders 1156 1 Glentoran 1271 0
23 1965-04-10 34.03% @ Lisburn Distillery 1151 4 Linfield 1254 2
24 1965-04-10 34.24% Glentoran 1210 2 @ Ballymena United 1184 0
25 1965-03-06 34.49% Ballymena United 1157 3 @ Ards 1130 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1964-12-19 59.42 @ Glenavon 6 1190 29.03% Glentoran 0 1332 50.29% 20.68%
2 1964-12-05 55.64 @ Portadown 5 1189 23.11% Glentoran 0 1383 56.48% 20.41%
3 1965-04-21 53.13 Crusaders 6 1220 34.98% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1189 44.14% 20.88%
4 1965-04-03 48.62 Cliftonville 3 784 2.98% @ Glentoran 0 1258 80.82% 16.20%
5 1964-12-05 46.56 Linfield 8 1182 39.27% @ Crusaders 1 1121 39.85% 20.88%
6 1965-01-09 32.66 @ Bangor 7 974 58.90% Cliftonville 0 882 20.58% 20.52%
7 1965-01-30 32.10 Coleraine 4 1279 41.20% @ Ballymena United 0 1204 37.94% 20.87%
8 1965-04-19 31.22 Lisburn Distillery 4 1157 42.51% @ Ards 0 1073 36.64% 20.85%
9 1964-12-05 31.07 Glenavon 4 1169 19.34% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1274 60.21% 20.44%
10 1965-03-13 29.52 @ Glenavon 3 1265 31.80% Derry City 0 1385 47.44% 20.76%
11 1965-04-19 28.56 @ Crusaders 4 1191 24.26% Derry City 1 1375 55.26% 20.48%
12 1964-11-28 27.31 Lisburn Distillery 3 1247 35.87% @ Linfield 0 1210 43.24% 20.89%
13 1964-12-25 27.00 Glenavon 3 1249 36.47% @ Linfield 0 1208 42.64% 20.89%
14 1965-01-30 26.72 @ Ards 3 1125 37.01% Portadown 0 1207 42.14% 20.86%
15 1964-12-19 25.58 Coleraine 4 1228 30.27% @ Linfield 1 1233 48.89% 20.84%
16 1965-01-30 25.08 Bangor 3 1021 11.65% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1230 68.72% 19.63%
17 1965-01-09 23.82 @ Derry City 6 1326 53.56% Glenavon 1 1283 25.70% 20.74%
18 1965-02-27 23.64 @ Portadown 3 1158 42.99% Lisburn Distillery 0 1197 36.12% 20.89%
19 1965-01-02 23.10 Coleraine 5 1247 47.60% @ Ards 1 1126 31.64% 20.76%
20 1964-11-28 22.66 @ Bangor 2 975 25.87% Crusaders 0 1144 53.57% 20.56%
21 1965-02-13 22.66 @ Crusaders 2 1133 25.85% Coleraine 0 1302 53.59% 20.56%
22 1965-03-13 22.54 Crusaders 4 1166 37.00% @ Ards 1 1121 42.12% 20.89%
23 1965-04-03 22.31 Bangor 3 1057 18.46% @ Portadown 1 1172 61.15% 20.38%
24 1965-02-13 22.09 @ Glenavon 4 1238 55.23% Portadown 0 1180 24.09% 20.68%
25 1965-01-16 22.06 @ Ards 2 1103 27.36% Glenavon 0 1259 52.02% 20.62%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-01-02 61.5 @ Derry City 3 1328 61.99% Ballymena United 3 1204 17.68% 20.32%
2 1964-12-05 61.1 @ Ards 3 1125 25.29% Derry City 3 1299 54.18% 20.53%
3 1965-02-06 61.1 @ Linfield 3 1242 58.74% Ards 3 1152 20.73% 20.53%
4 1965-04-19 60.9 @ Portadown 3 1153 45.22% Ballymena United 3 1176 33.90% 20.88%
5 1965-01-23 58.9 @ Bangor 4 1010 21.73% Portadown 3 1218 57.94% 20.33%
6 1965-03-20 57.2 @ Derry City 2 1356 67.57% Lisburn Distillery 2 1163 12.64% 19.78%
7 1965-01-09 56.8 @ Portadown 2 1237 43.84% Coleraine 2 1270 35.28% 20.89%
8 1964-12-25 56.7 @ Coleraine 2 1254 55.57% Ballymena United 2 1194 23.76% 20.67%
9 1964-12-28 56.7 @ Glentoran 2 1263 63.37% Ards 2 1124 16.42% 20.22%
10 1965-03-20 56.6 @ Bangor 2 1063 22.89% Glentoran 2 1260 56.71% 20.40%
11 1965-04-17 56.6 @ Linfield 2 1239 54.29% Crusaders 2 1190 25.00% 20.71%
12 1965-03-27 56.5 @ Portadown 2 1172 47.10% Crusaders 2 1181 32.03% 20.86%
13 1965-01-23 55.0 Crusaders 4 1103 16.79% @ Glenavon 2 1237 62.96% 20.25%
14 1965-04-26 52.8 @ Linfield 1 1241 33.85% Derry City 1 1346 45.34% 20.81%
15 1965-04-10 52.6 @ Portadown 1 1149 20.47% Derry City 1 1370 59.29% 20.24%
16 1965-01-16 52.4 @ Glentoran 1 1244 70.52% Bangor 1 1007 10.12% 19.35%
17 1965-03-13 52.3 @ Coleraine 1 1284 59.92% Portadown 1 1182 19.62% 20.46%
18 1965-03-13 52.3 @ Glentoran 1 1261 51.19% Linfield 1 1238 28.01% 20.80%
19 1965-04-27 52.3 @ Crusaders 1 1273 61.47% Portadown 1 1155 18.17% 20.36%
20 1965-01-09 52.2 @ Ballymena United 1 1205 43.11% Lisburn Distillery 1 1244 36.00% 20.89%
21 1965-01-30 52.2 @ Glenavon 1 1217 44.97% Linfield 1 1242 34.15% 20.88%
22 1965-04-17 52.2 @ Glentoran 1 1237 58.27% Portadown 1 1151 21.18% 20.55%
23 1964-12-19 52.1 @ Ards 1 1122 63.02% Bangor 1 986 16.73% 20.25%
24 1965-01-30 52.0 Bangor 3 1021 11.65% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1230 68.72% 19.63%
25 1965-01-09 51.9 @ Crusaders 1 1103 48.35% Ards 1 1102 30.80% 20.85%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-02-27 24.1 @ Linfield 6 1232 79.35% Cliftonville 0 803 3.77% 16.88%
2 1965-03-20 24.5 Coleraine 5 1282 77.44% @ Cliftonville 0 790 5.36% 17.20%
3 1965-01-30 25.7 @ Crusaders 5 1123 73.25% Cliftonville 0 839 7.94% 18.82%
4 1965-01-23 26.3 Glentoran 4 1240 72.63% @ Cliftonville 0 847 8.84% 18.53%
5 1964-12-19 26.8 @ Derry City 10 1303 77.65% Cliftonville 1 921 4.80% 17.55%
6 1965-01-02 27.1 @ Glenavon 3 1278 73.92% Bangor 0 980 7.42% 18.66%
7 1965-02-06 27.7 Glenavon 10 1216 72.31% @ Cliftonville 0 829 9.09% 18.60%
8 1964-12-12 27.9 Portadown 4 1244 67.21% @ Cliftonville 0 934 13.33% 19.46%
9 1965-04-27 27.9 Lisburn Distillery 4 1128 67.35% @ Cliftonville 0 815 13.21% 19.44%
10 1965-02-13 28.2 @ Lisburn Distillery 6 1192 77.74% Cliftonville 1 808 4.75% 17.52%
11 1964-12-26 28.6 @ Ballymena United 3 1195 68.54% Bangor 0 989 11.81% 19.66%
12 1965-01-16 30.2 @ Coleraine 4 1270 79.05% Cliftonville 1 850 3.95% 17.00%
13 1965-04-20 30.4 @ Portadown 1 1153 75.72% Cliftonville 0 817 6.10% 18.18%
14 1965-01-09 30.6 @ Bangor 7 974 58.90% Cliftonville 0 882 20.58% 20.52%
15 1965-04-17 30.8 @ Derry City 5 1368 73.44% Ards 1 1080 7.79% 18.77%
16 1965-03-27 31.6 Derry City 2 1353 65.52% @ Bangor 0 1064 14.81% 19.67%
17 1965-04-17 31.6 Ballymena United 8 1165 69.07% @ Cliftonville 2 828 11.74% 19.19%
18 1965-04-29 31.6 Derry City 3 1346 79.45% @ Cliftonville 1 802 4.11% 16.44%
19 1965-02-13 31.7 @ Glenavon 4 1238 55.23% Portadown 0 1180 24.09% 20.68%
20 1965-01-02 32.7 Linfield 5 1190 66.12% @ Cliftonville 1 894 14.28% 19.60%
21 1964-12-24 32.8 Crusaders 3 1090 54.52% @ Cliftonville 0 912 24.97% 20.51%
22 1964-12-05 32.9 @ Coleraine 4 1227 70.06% Bangor 1 997 10.51% 19.43%
23 1965-03-20 33.5 @ Glenavon 7 1294 67.83% Ards 2 1098 12.42% 19.75%
24 1965-01-30 33.8 @ Derry City 2 1357 60.54% Glentoran 0 1249 19.04% 20.42%
25 1965-04-03 33.8 @ Derry City 2 1361 60.73% Linfield 0 1251 18.86% 20.41%