1968-69 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

35 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Derry City

6.12 points above expected

32 points · 25.88 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Portadown

9.25 points below expected

4 points · 13.25 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Linfield	22	17	1	4	35	61	19	+42	33.12	+1.88
2	Derry City	22	15	2	5	32	57	27	+30	25.88	+6.12
3	Glentoran	22	13	4	5	30	42	22	+20	32.66	-2.66
4	Ards	22	12	5	5	29	48	34	+14	26.86	+2.14
5	Crusaders	22	12	5	5	29	47	34	+13	23.49	+5.51
6	Coleraine	22	13	3	6	29	43	30	+13	29.56	-0.56
7	Ballymena United	22	9	5	8	23	48	41	+7	23.43	-0.43
8	Lisburn Distillery	22	6	4	12	16	39	51	-12	15.44	+0.56
9	Glenavon	22	6	2	14	14	32	52	-20	17.99	-3.99
10	Bangor	22	5	2	15	12	22	51	-29	12.51	-0.51
11	Cliftonville	22	3	5	14	11	24	58	-34	9.81	+1.19
12	Portadown	22	2	0	20	4	15	59	-44	13.25	-9.25

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Derry City	32	25.88	+6.12
2	Crusaders	29	23.49	+5.51
3	Ards	29	26.86	+2.14
4	Linfield	35	33.12	+1.88
5	Cliftonville	11	9.81	+1.19

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Portadown	4	13.25	-9.25
2	Glenavon	14	17.99	-3.99
3	Glentoran	30	32.66	-2.66
4	Coleraine	29	29.56	-0.56
5	Bangor	12	12.51	-0.51

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Coleraine	7	Nov 2 – Dec 14	1 in 95
2	Glenavon	5	Dec 28 – Jan 18	1 in 87
3	Ballymena United	6	Sep 28 – Nov 9	1 in 76
4	Crusaders	3	Dec 14 – Dec 25	1 in 22
5	Derry City	5	Dec 7 – Dec 26	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Portadown	13	Oct 5 – Dec 26	1 in 1,161
2	Glenavon	5	Oct 19 – Nov 16	1 in 169
3	Ards	4	Dec 26 – Jan 11	1 in 73
4	Bangor	6	Dec 26 – Jan 30	1 in 32
5	Lisburn Distillery	5	Nov 23 – Dec 21	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cliftonville	3	Dec 25 – Jan 4	1 in 50
2	Glenavon	6	Dec 28 – Jan 25	1 in 40
3	Coleraine	9	Oct 26 – Dec 21	1 in 27
4	Ards	8	Sep 14 – Nov 9	1 in 21
5	Derry City	9	Nov 30 – Jan 11	1 in 21

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Glentoran	4	Oct 5 – Oct 26	1 in 94
2	Ards	6	Dec 21 – Jan 11	1 in 93
3	Glenavon	11	Oct 19 – Dec 26	1 in 67
4	Portadown	13	Oct 5 – Dec 26	1 in 54
5	Ballymena United	6	Nov 14 – Dec 14	1 in 20

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Linfield	1651	35	+1	6	7.2	-1.2
Derry City	1536	32	+16	7	5.6	+1.4
Glentoran	1582	30	-1	6	6.4	-0.4
Coleraine	1492	29	+23	8	7.0	+1.0
Crusaders	1471	29	+31	7	5.5	+1.5
Ards	1478	29	-24	3	5.1	-2.1
Ballymena United	1439	23	-22	5	6.2	-1.2
Lisburn Distillery	1252	16	-20	4	4.5	-0.5
Glenavon	1322	14	+89	9	4.8	+4.2
Bangor	1125	12	-61	0	3.7	-3.7
Cliftonville	1093	11	-30	3	2.8	+0.2
Portadown	1126	4	-31	0	1.8	-1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ARD	BU	BAN	CLI	COL	CRU	DC	GLE	GLE	LIN	LD	POR
Ards	—	2-0-0 2.92	2-0-0 4.57	1-1-0 4.99	1-1-0 2.29	0-2-0 3.34	1-0-1 2.84	2-0-0 4.03	0-1-1 2.15	0-0-2 1.72	2-0-0 4.32	1-0-1 4.75
Ballymena United	0-0-2 2.78	—	1-1-0 4.21	2-0-0 4.88	2-0-0 1.75	0-0-2 2.89	1-0-1 2.52	0-2-0 4.00	0-1-1 1.85	0-0-2 1.28	1-1-0 4.24	2-0-0 3.99
Bangor	0-0-2 1.13	0-1-1 1.49	—	0-1-1 3.40	0-0-2 0.99	0-0-2 1.32	0-0-2 1.15	1-0-1 2.10	1-0-1 0.66	0-0-2 0.61	1-0-1 2.13	2-0-0 2.49
Cliftonville	0-1-1 0.72	0-0-2 0.83	1-1-0 2.29	—	0-0-2 0.70	0-1-1 0.94	0-1-1 0.97	1-0-1 1.57	0-0-2 0.57	0-0-2 0.49	0-1-1 1.65	1-0-1 1.96
Coleraine	0-1-1 3.40	0-0-2 3.94	2-0-0 4.72	2-0-0 5.02	—	1-1-0 3.98	1-0-1 3.52	1-0-1 4.26	2-0-0 1.94	1-0-1 2.20	1-1-0 4.32	2-0-0 4.69
Crusaders	0-2-0 2.36	2-0-0 2.80	2-0-0 4.38	1-1-0 4.77	0-1-1 1.71	—	1-0-1 2.31	2-0-0 3.66	1-1-0 1.43	0-0-2 1.43	1-0-1 3.80	2-0-0 4.53
Derry City	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 3.17	2-0-0 4.55	1-1-0 4.74	1-0-1 2.18	1-0-1 3.38	—	2-0-0 3.58	1-1-0 1.94	1-0-1 1.60	2-0-0 4.20	2-0-0 4.63
Glenavon	0-0-2 1.67	0-2-0 1.70	1-0-1 3.60	1-0-1 4.13	1-0-1 1.44	0-0-2 2.04	0-0-2 2.12	—	0-0-2 1.08	0-0-2 0.87	1-0-1 3.05	2-0-0 3.61
Glentoran	1-1-0 3.55	1-1-0 3.85	1-0-1 5.05	2-0-0 5.15	0-0-2 3.76	0-1-1 4.27	0-1-1 3.76	2-0-0 4.62	—	2-0-0 2.23	2-0-0 4.85	2-0-0 5.06
Linfield	2-0-0 3.98	2-0-0 4.42	2-0-0 5.11	2-0-0 5.24	1-0-1 3.49	2-0-0 4.27	1-0-1 4.10	2-0-0 4.84	0-0-2 3.46	—	1-1-0 4.98	2-0-0 5.16
Lisburn Distillery	0-0-2 1.38	0-1-1 1.46	1-0-1 3.57	1-1-0 4.04	0-1-1 1.38	1-0-1 1.90	0-0-2 1.50	1-0-1 2.65	0-0-2 0.86	0-1-1 0.73	—	2-0-0 3.20
Portadown	1-0-1 0.95	0-0-2 1.71	0-0-2 3.20	1-0-1 3.73	0-0-2 1.01	0-0-2 1.17	0-0-2 1.07	0-0-2 2.09	0-0-2 0.66	0-0-2 0.56	0-0-2 2.49	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.88	+6.7
Allowed	0.93	-6.9
Differential	0.97	+3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	0.76%	4.55%	6.06%	4.55%	2.65%	1.14%	19.70%
1	4.55%	6.06%	9.47%	3.79%	3.03%	2.27%	29.17%
2	6.06%	9.47%	5.30%	1.52%	0.76%	0.76%	23.86%
3	4.55%	3.79%	1.52%	2.27%	0.76%	1.52%	14.39%
4	2.65%	3.03%	0.76%	0.76%	—	—	7.20%
5+	1.14%	2.27%	0.76%	1.52%	—	—	5.68%
Total	19.70%	29.17%	23.86%	14.39%	7.20%	5.68%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.81	1.81	+0.00
SD	1.52	1.52	2.38
CV	0.84	0.84	—
Max	8	8	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	13.64%	—	—	27.27%
4	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	45.45%	13.64%	27.27%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.18	1.55	+0.64
SD	1.44	1.06	1.76
CV	0.66	0.68	—
Max	5	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	45.45%
2	—	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	18.18%	22.73%	31.82%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.18	1.86	+0.32
SD	1.50	1.39	2.30
CV	0.69	0.75	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	1	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	27.27%	13.64%	—	—	45.45%
1	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
2	—	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	27.27%	31.82%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.32	-1.32
SD	1.11	1.13	1.59
CV	1.11	0.49	—
Max	4	5	+1
Min	0	1	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	40.91%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	31.82%
2	—	—	13.64%	—	—	—	13.64%
3	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	4.55%	9.09%	40.91%	22.73%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	2.64	-1.55
SD	1.31	1.36	2.04
CV	1.20	0.52	—
Max	5	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
1	18.18%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	40.91%
2	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	45.45%	13.64%	22.73%	9.09%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	1.36	+0.59
SD	1.46	1.71	2.48
CV	0.75	1.25	—
Max	5	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	18.18%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	50.00%	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.55	+0.59
SD	1.55	1.18	2.02
CV	0.73	0.77	—
Max	6	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
2	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
4	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	31.82%	40.91%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.59	1.23	+1.36
SD	1.47	1.34	2.30
CV	0.57	1.09	—
Max	6	5	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	—	9.09%	9.09%	40.91%
2	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	13.64%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	13.64%	31.82%	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	2.36	-0.91
SD	1.26	1.87	2.52
CV	0.87	0.79	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	13.64%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	—	40.91%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	54.55%	22.73%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.00	+0.91
SD	1.48	0.69	1.80
CV	0.77	0.69	—
Max	7	2	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
3	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
4	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
Total	40.91%	40.91%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.77	0.86	+1.91
SD	2.02	0.94	2.09
CV	0.73	1.09	—
Max	8	3	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	18.18%
1	—	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	31.82%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	22.73%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	22.73%	22.73%	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	2.32	-0.55
SD	1.27	1.99	2.28
CV	0.72	0.86	—
Max	5	7	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	18.18%	13.64%	9.09%	—	50.00%
1	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
2	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	9.09%	31.82%	27.27%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.68	2.68	-2.00
SD	0.78	1.73	1.83
CV	1.14	0.64	—
Max	2	8	+2
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Linfield	1651	35	33.12	+1.88	74.0%	25	27	31	34	36	38	41
Glentoran	1582	30	32.66	-2.66	22.0%	23	26	31	32	35	38	42
Derry City	1536	32	25.88	+6.12	95.0%	18	19	23	26	28	32	35
Coleraine	1492	29	29.56	-0.56	49.0%	20	23	27	30	32	35	38
Ards	1478	29	26.86	+2.14	76.0%	20	22	24	26	29	32	34
Crusaders	1471	29	23.49	+5.51	94.0%	15	18	21	23	26	30	32
Ballymena United	1439	23	23.43	-0.43	51.0%	15	17	21	23	26	30	32
Glenavon	1322	14	17.99	-3.99	23.0%	10	12	15	18	20	25	28
Lisburn Distillery	1252	16	15.44	+0.56	61.0%	5	9	13	15	18	21	26
Portadown	1126	4	13.25	-9.25	1.0%	4	7	11	13	16	19	26
Bangor	1125	12	12.51	-0.51	49.0%	4	8	11	13	15	18	19
Cliftonville	1093	11	9.81	+1.19	72.0%	3	5	8	10	12	16	20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+2.27%

No Edge

43.94%14.39%41.67%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 7.90 Elo pts.

171 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.26 goals

Neutral

-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.5

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

54%

Linfield, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.14/gm

Tight Race

00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.9 * Some Luck: 2.9 to 4.35 * Lucky: 4.35 to 5.8 * Wild Swing: 5.8 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.88 * Close: 0.88 to 1.32 * Off: 1.32 to 1.76 * Way Off: 1.76 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.95 points

Some Luck

03.639

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.17

01.102.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.00%

Derry City

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

1.00%

Portadown

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.24

Top-Heavy

00.190.250.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 191.62

2.33

Wide Separation

11.852.253

Interquartile Edge

84%

Wide Edge

50%70%81%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 98%

96%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

47%

Some Drama

0%47%100%

Blowouts

Expected

30%

Very Frequent

0%30%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.49

Highly Predictable

00.502

Matchup Imbalance

0.50

Lopsided

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.12

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.80

Near-Lock

00.470.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

23%

Upset-Prone

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

20%

Shaky Favorites

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.48

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.02

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.090

Well Within Noise

00.1370.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Linfield	54.00%	25.00%	11.00%	7.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Derry City	4.00%	3.00%	17.00%	25.00%	21.00%	10.00%	14.00%	6.00%	—	—	—	—
Glentoran	30.00%	39.00%	16.00%	9.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Ards	1.00%	11.00%	13.00%	20.00%	22.00%	24.00%	6.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—
Crusaders	—	1.00%	5.00%	10.00%	21.00%	26.00%	24.00%	11.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Coleraine	11.00%	19.00%	28.00%	19.00%	8.00%	9.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Ballymena United	—	2.00%	8.00%	8.00%	16.00%	20.00%	30.00%	12.00%	4.00%	—	—	—
Lisburn Distillery	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	6.00%	19.00%	31.00%	23.00%	12.00%	6.00%
Glenavon	—	—	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	8.00%	13.00%	30.00%	18.00%	19.00%	4.00%	2.00%
Bangor	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	4.00%	23.00%	27.00%	27.00%	19.00%
Cliftonville	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	9.00%	4.00%	30.00%	55.00%
Portadown	—	—	—	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	12.00%	13.00%	27.00%	27.00%	18.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Ards	100%
Ballymena United	100%
Bangor	100%
Cliftonville	100%
Coleraine	100%
Crusaders	100%
Derry City	100%
Glenavon	100%
Glentoran	100%
Linfield	100%
Lisburn Distillery	100%
Portadown	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1968-09-14	Crusaders	L 1-3	45.8	1376	1379	43.55%	15.27%	41.18%	+0.03	-18.5	0
1968-09-14	@ Ballymena United	W 3-1	45.8	1379	1376	41.18%	15.27%	43.55%	-0.03	+18.5	2
1968-09-14	Portadown	W 2-1	49.1	1193	1291	30.69%	15.21%	54.10%	-0.53	+13.0	2
1968-09-14	@ Bangor	L 1-2	49.1	1291	1193	54.10%	15.21%	30.69%	+0.53	-13.0	0
1968-09-14	Glentoran	L 1-3	33.6	1139	1587	5.56%	14.03%	80.41%	-2.58	-2.7	0
1968-09-14	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	33.6	1587	1139	80.41%	14.03%	5.56%	+2.58	+2.7	2
1968-09-14	Linfield	L 0-1	54.8	1555	1589	39.14%	15.26%	45.60%	-0.16	-10.3	0
1968-09-14	@ Coleraine	W 1-0	54.8	1589	1555	45.60%	15.26%	39.14%	+0.16	+10.4	2
1968-09-14	Derry City	L 0-2	41.5	1390	1385	44.73%	15.27%	40.01%	+0.07	-21.9	0
1968-09-14	@ Glenavon	W 2-0	41.5	1385	1390	40.01%	15.27%	44.73%	-0.07	+21.9	2
1968-09-14	Ards	L 1-2	40.5	1250	1431	21.39%	15.07%	63.55%	-1.01	-5.7	0
1968-09-14	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	40.5	1431	1250	63.55%	15.07%	21.39%	+1.01	+5.7	2
1968-09-21	Bangor	W 2-0	30.6	1437	1206	70.07%	14.89%	15.04%	+1.40	+8.3	4
1968-09-21	@ Ards	L 0-2	30.6	1206	1437	15.04%	14.89%	70.07%	-1.40	-8.3	2
1968-09-21	Lisburn Distillery	L 1-2	52.7	1398	1244	63.10%	15.09%	21.81%	+0.94	-15.1	2
1968-09-21	@ Crusaders	W 2-1	52.7	1244	1398	21.81%	15.09%	63.10%	-0.94	+15.1	2
1968-09-21	Cliftonville	W 6-0	26.0	1407	1137	72.84%	14.75%	12.41%	+1.63	+19.1	4
1968-09-21	@ Derry City	L 0-6	26.0	1137	1407	12.41%	14.75%	72.84%	-1.63	-19.1	0
1968-09-21	Glenavon	W 7-1	37.4	1590	1368	69.35%	14.91%	15.74%	+1.35	+19.7	4
1968-09-21	@ Glentoran	L 1-7	37.4	1368	1590	15.74%	14.91%	69.35%	-1.35	-19.7	0
1968-09-21	Ballymena United	W 3-1	42.6	1600	1357	70.91%	14.85%	14.24%	+1.47	+6.8	4
1968-09-21	@ Linfield	L 1-3	42.6	1357	1600	14.24%	14.85%	70.91%	-1.47	-6.8	0
1968-09-21	Coleraine	L 0-3	30.7	1278	1544	14.22%	14.82%	70.96%	-1.51	-11.4	0
1968-09-21	@ Portadown	W 3-0	30.7	1544	1278	70.96%	14.82%	14.22%	+1.51	+11.4	2
1968-09-28	Derry City	W 5-3	55.7	1350	1426	33.55%	15.24%	51.22%	-0.40	+18.1	2
1968-09-28	@ Ballymena United	L 3-5	55.7	1426	1350	51.22%	15.24%	33.55%	+0.40	-18.1	4
1968-09-28	Linfield	L 0-2	30.4	1197	1606	6.84%	14.23%	78.93%	-2.35	-3.8	2
1968-09-28	@ Bangor	W 2-0	30.4	1606	1197	78.93%	14.23%	6.84%	+2.35	+3.9	6
1968-09-28	Portadown	L 0-2	32.5	1117	1266	24.75%	15.13%	60.11%	-0.82	-13.1	0
1968-09-28	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	32.5	1266	1117	60.11%	15.13%	24.75%	+0.82	+13.1	2
1968-09-28	Crusaders	D 1-1	62.9	1556	1383	65.06%	15.05%	19.90%	+1.06	-2.8	3
1968-09-28	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	62.9	1383	1556	19.90%	15.05%	65.06%	-1.06	+2.8	3
1968-09-28	Ards	L 1-2	45.2	1348	1445	30.77%	15.21%	54.02%	-0.52	-7.9	0
1968-09-28	@ Glenavon	W 2-1	45.2	1445	1348	54.02%	15.21%	30.77%	+0.52	+7.9	6
1968-09-28	Glentoran	L 1-2	40.5	1259	1610	9.30%	14.50%	76.20%	-2.00	-2.6	2
1968-09-28	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	40.5	1610	1259	76.20%	14.50%	9.30%	+2.00	+2.6	6
1968-10-05	Coleraine	W 3-1	56.5	1453	1553	30.49%	15.21%	54.30%	-0.54	+22.6	8
1968-10-05	@ Ards	L 1-3	56.5	1553	1453	54.30%	15.21%	30.49%	+0.54	-22.6	3
1968-10-05	Glenavon	W 1-0	40.7	1385	1340	50.32%	15.25%	34.43%	+0.31	+9.3	5
1968-10-05	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	40.7	1340	1385	34.43%	15.25%	50.32%	-0.31	-9.3	0
1968-10-05	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-2	45.7	1408	1257	62.87%	15.10%	22.03%	+0.93	+5.6	6
1968-10-05	@ Derry City	L 2-3	45.7	1257	1408	22.03%	15.10%	62.87%	-0.93	-5.6	2
1968-10-05	Bangor	L 1-2	60.0	1612	1193	80.19%	14.10%	5.72%	+2.50	-19.3	6
1968-10-05	@ Glentoran	W 2-1	60.0	1193	1612	5.72%	14.10%	80.19%	-2.50	+19.3	4
1968-10-05	Cliftonville	W 4-1	30.2	1610	1104	82.81%	13.61%	3.58%	+3.01	+2.5	8
1968-10-05	@ Linfield	L 1-4	30.2	1104	1610	3.58%	13.61%	82.81%	-3.01	-2.5	0
1968-10-05	Ballymena United	L 0-1	39.0	1279	1368	31.83%	15.22%	52.94%	-0.47	-8.7	2
1968-10-05	@ Portadown	W 1-0	39.0	1368	1279	52.94%	15.22%	31.83%	+0.47	+8.7	4
1968-10-12	Cliftonville	W 1-0	30.8	1476	1102	78.42%	14.32%	7.26%	+2.23	+2.2	10
1968-10-12	@ Ards	L 0-1	30.8	1102	1476	7.26%	14.32%	78.42%	-2.23	-2.2	0
1968-10-12	Bangor	W 3-0	29.4	1377	1213	64.19%	15.07%	20.74%	+1.01	+16.2	6
1968-10-12	@ Ballymena United	L 0-3	29.4	1213	1377	20.74%	15.07%	64.19%	-1.01	-16.2	4
1968-10-12	Glentoran	D 1-1	64.7	1395	1593	19.75%	15.02%	65.22%	-1.12	+2.8	6
1968-10-12	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	64.7	1593	1395	65.22%	15.02%	19.75%	+1.12	-2.8	7
1968-10-12	Coleraine	L 0-1	44.5	1413	1530	28.38%	15.19%	56.43%	-0.64	-7.8	6
1968-10-12	@ Derry City	W 1-0	44.5	1530	1413	56.43%	15.19%	28.38%	+0.64	+7.8	5
1968-10-12	Portadown	W 3-0	33.1	1331	1271	52.28%	15.24%	32.48%	+0.40	+24.1	2
1968-10-12	@ Glenavon	L 0-3	33.1	1271	1331	32.48%	15.24%	52.28%	-0.40	-24.1	2
1968-10-12	Linfield	L 3-7	37.2	1251	1613	8.78%	14.45%	76.77%	-2.07	-6.0	2
1968-10-12	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 7-3	37.2	1613	1251	76.77%	14.45%	8.78%	+2.07	+6.0	10
1968-10-19	Derry City	L 0-2	31.5	1197	1406	18.80%	15.00%	66.20%	-1.18	-10.2	4
1968-10-19	@ Bangor	W 2-0	31.5	1406	1197	66.20%	15.00%	18.80%	+1.18	+10.2	8
1968-10-19	Crusaders	L 1-3	34.0	1100	1397	12.19%	14.71%	73.10%	-1.70	-5.8	0
1968-10-19	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	34.0	1397	1100	73.10%	14.71%	12.19%	+1.70	+5.9	8
1968-10-19	Ballymena United	L 1-6	50.9	1538	1393	62.26%	15.11%	22.63%	+0.90	-57.6	5
1968-10-19	@ Coleraine	W 6-1	50.9	1393	1538	22.63%	15.11%	62.26%	-0.90	+57.6	8
1968-10-19	Ards	D 1-1	67.6	1590	1478	58.67%	15.17%	26.16%	+0.70	-2.0	8
1968-10-19	@ Glentoran	D 1-1	67.6	1478	1590	26.16%	15.17%	58.67%	-0.70	+2.0	11
1968-10-19	Glenavon	W 3-0	35.1	1619	1355	72.41%	14.78%	12.81%	+1.59	+10.3	12
1968-10-19	@ Linfield	L 0-3	35.1	1355	1619	12.81%	14.78%	72.41%	-1.59	-10.3	2
1968-10-19	Lisburn Distillery	L 0-2	38.7	1247	1245	44.25%	15.27%	40.49%	+0.05	-21.7	2
1968-10-19	@ Portadown	W 2-0	38.7	1245	1247	40.49%	15.27%	44.25%	-0.05	+21.7	4
1968-10-26	Portadown	W 5-2	37.0	1480	1225	71.81%	14.81%	13.38%	+1.54	+7.8	13
1968-10-26	@ Ards	L 2-5	37.0	1225	1480	13.38%	14.81%	71.81%	-1.54	-7.8	2
1968-10-26	Cliftonville	W 2-1	35.3	1451	1094	77.65%	14.40%	7.95%	+2.13	+2.2	10
1968-10-26	@ Ballymena United	L 1-2	35.3	1094	1451	7.95%	14.40%	77.65%	-2.13	-2.2	0
1968-10-26	Linfield	L 0-4	37.5	1403	1629	17.36%	14.95%	67.69%	-1.28	-17.9	8
1968-10-26	@ Crusaders	W 4-0	37.5	1629	1403	67.69%	14.95%	17.36%	+1.28	+17.9	14
1968-10-26	Glentoran	W 2-1	61.4	1416	1588	22.25%	15.09%	62.66%	-0.96	+15.0	10
1968-10-26	@ Derry City	L 1-2	61.4	1588	1416	62.66%	15.09%	22.25%	+0.96	-15.0	8
1968-10-26	Bangor	L 1-2	52.1	1345	1186	63.60%	15.08%	21.32%	+0.97	-15.2	2
1968-10-26	@ Glenavon	W 2-1	52.1	1186	1345	21.32%	15.08%	63.60%	-0.97	+15.2	6
1968-10-26	Coleraine	D 2-2	62.8	1267	1481	18.39%	14.98%	66.63%	-1.20	+2.2	5
1968-10-26	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 2-2	62.8	1481	1267	66.63%	14.98%	18.39%	+1.20	-2.2	6
1968-11-02	Crusaders	L 1-3	37.2	1202	1385	21.15%	15.06%	63.79%	-1.03	-9.8	6
1968-11-02	@ Bangor	W 3-1	37.2	1385	1202	63.79%	15.06%	21.15%	+1.03	+9.8	10
1968-11-02	Lisburn Distillery	L 1-2	39.1	1092	1269	21.77%	15.07%	63.16%	-0.99	-5.8	0
1968-11-02	@ Cliftonville	W 2-1	39.1	1269	1092	63.16%	15.07%	21.77%	+0.99	+5.8	7
1968-11-02	Glenavon	W 2-0	35.4	1478	1329	62.66%	15.10%	22.24%	+0.92	+11.9	8
1968-11-02	@ Coleraine	L 0-2	35.4	1329	1478	22.24%	15.10%	62.66%	-0.92	-11.9	2
1968-11-02	Derry City	L 1-2	39.3	1217	1431	18.39%	14.98%	66.63%	-1.20	-5.0	2
1968-11-02	@ Portadown	W 2-1	39.3	1431	1217	66.63%	14.98%	18.39%	+1.20	+5.0	12
1968-11-09	Derry City	W 2-1	49.8	1488	1436	51.23%	15.24%	33.53%	+0.35	+8.5	15
1968-11-09	@ Ards	L 1-2	49.8	1436	1488	33.53%	15.24%	51.23%	-0.35	-8.5	12
1968-11-09	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	40.6	1453	1275	65.51%	15.04%	19.46%	+1.09	+5.2	12
1968-11-09	@ Ballymena United	L 1-2	40.6	1275	1453	19.46%	15.04%	65.51%	-1.09	-5.2	7
1968-11-09	Bangor	W 2-0	29.7	1490	1192	74.60%	14.65%	10.75%	+1.79	+6.0	10
1968-11-09	@ Coleraine	L 0-2	29.7	1192	1490	10.75%	14.65%	74.60%	-1.79	-6.0	6
1968-11-09	Portadown	W 3-1	36.6	1395	1212	65.99%	15.02%	18.99%	+1.12	+8.9	12
1968-11-09	@ Crusaders	L 1-3	36.6	1212	1395	18.99%	15.02%	65.99%	-1.12	-8.9	2
1968-11-09	Cliftonville	L 3-5	58.4	1318	1086	70.08%	14.88%	15.03%	+1.40	-24.5	2
1968-11-09	@ Glenavon	W 5-3	58.4	1086	1318	15.03%	14.88%	70.08%	-1.40	+24.5	2
1968-11-09	Glentoran	L 1-3	63.0	1647	1573	54.00%	15.22%	30.78%	+0.48	-22.5	14
1968-11-09	@ Linfield	W 3-1	63.0	1573	1647	30.78%	15.22%	54.00%	-0.48	+22.4	10
1968-11-12	Ards	W 3-0	43.9	1625	1496	60.45%	15.14%	24.41%	+0.80	+18.7	16
1968-11-12	@ Linfield	L 0-3	43.9	1496	1625	24.41%	15.14%	60.45%	-0.80	-18.7	15
1968-11-14	Ballymena United	W 2-1	51.5	1596	1458	61.48%	15.12%	23.40%	+0.85	+6.2	12
1968-11-14	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	51.5	1458	1596	23.40%	15.12%	61.48%	-0.85	-6.2	12
1968-11-16	Ballymena United	W 4-3	59.8	1478	1452	47.66%	15.26%	37.08%	+0.20	+8.6	17
1968-11-16	@ Ards	L 3-4	59.8	1452	1478	37.08%	15.26%	47.66%	-0.20	-8.6	12
1968-11-16	Bangor	D 2-2	60.2	1110	1186	33.59%	15.24%	51.17%	-0.39	+0.8	3
1968-11-16	@ Cliftonville	D 2-2	60.2	1186	1110	51.17%	15.24%	33.59%	+0.39	-0.8	7
1968-11-16	Crusaders	W 4-1	43.2	1427	1404	47.31%	15.26%	37.43%	+0.18	+23.0	14
1968-11-16	@ Derry City	L 1-4	43.2	1404	1427	37.43%	15.26%	47.31%	-0.18	-23.0	12
1968-11-16	Coleraine	L 0-1	59.0	1602	1496	57.92%	15.18%	26.90%	+0.67	-14.7	12
1968-11-16	@ Glentoran	W 1-0	59.0	1496	1602	26.90%	15.18%	57.92%	-0.67	+14.7	12
1968-11-16	Glenavon	W 3-0	36.3	1270	1293	40.72%	15.27%	44.01%	-0.09	+31.3	9
1968-11-16	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 0-3	36.3	1293	1270	44.01%	15.27%	40.72%	+0.09	-31.3	2
1968-11-16	Linfield	L 0-2	31.1	1203	1643	5.80%	14.07%	80.13%	-2.53	-3.3	2
1968-11-16	@ Portadown	W 2-0	31.1	1643	1203	80.13%	14.07%	5.80%	+2.53	+3.3	18
1968-11-23	Lisburn Distillery	W 4-3	58.6	1185	1301	28.49%	15.19%	56.32%	-0.63	+12.5	9
1968-11-23	@ Bangor	L 3-4	58.6	1301	1185	56.32%	15.19%	28.49%	+0.63	-12.5	9
1968-11-23	Cliftonville	W 2-0	27.7	1511	1111	79.47%	14.19%	6.33%	+2.39	+3.6	14
1968-11-23	@ Coleraine	L 0-2	27.7	1111	1511	6.33%	14.19%	79.47%	-2.39	-3.6	3
1968-11-23	Ards	D 3-3	70.1	1381	1486	29.80%	15.20%	55.00%	-0.57	+0.9	13
1968-11-23	@ Crusaders	D 3-3	70.1	1486	1381	55.00%	15.20%	29.80%	+0.57	-0.9	18
1968-11-23	Ballymena United	D 2-2	62.2	1262	1443	21.36%	15.06%	63.58%	-1.02	+1.9	3
1968-11-23	@ Glenavon	D 2-2	62.2	1443	1262	63.58%	15.06%	21.36%	+1.02	-1.9	13
1968-11-23	Portadown	W 2-0	30.1	1587	1200	78.99%	14.25%	6.76%	+2.31	+3.8	14
1968-11-23	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	30.1	1200	1587	6.76%	14.25%	78.99%	-2.31	-3.8	2
1968-11-23	Derry City	W 3-1	48.8	1647	1450	67.18%	14.99%	17.84%	+1.20	+8.4	20
1968-11-23	@ Linfield	L 1-3	48.8	1450	1647	17.84%	14.99%	67.18%	-1.20	-8.4	14
1968-11-30	Linfield	L 1-2	51.4	1441	1655	18.41%	14.98%	66.61%	-1.20	-5.0	13
1968-11-30	@ Ballymena United	W 2-1	51.4	1655	1441	66.61%	14.98%	18.41%	+1.20	+5.0	22
1968-11-30	Ards	L 0-3	27.8	1198	1485	12.80%	14.75%	72.45%	-1.64	-10.3	9
1968-11-30	@ Bangor	W 3-0	27.8	1485	1198	72.45%	14.75%	12.80%	+1.64	+10.3	20
1968-11-30	Derry City	D 2-2	61.0	1108	1442	10.12%	14.57%	75.32%	-1.91	+3.1	4
1968-11-30	@ Cliftonville	D 2-2	61.0	1442	1108	75.32%	14.57%	10.12%	+1.91	-3.1	15
1968-11-30	Portadown	W 4-0	25.9	1515	1196	75.73%	14.57%	9.70%	+1.91	+10.3	16
1968-11-30	@ Coleraine	L 0-4	25.9	1196	1515	9.70%	14.57%	75.73%	-1.91	-10.3	2
1968-11-30	Glentoran	L 1-2	40.5	1264	1591	10.47%	14.60%	74.94%	-1.87	-2.9	3
1968-11-30	@ Glenavon	W 2-1	40.5	1591	1264	74.94%	14.60%	10.47%	+1.87	+2.9	16
1968-11-30	Crusaders	L 3-6	43.9	1289	1382	31.27%	15.22%	53.51%	-0.50	-15.8	9
1968-11-30	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 6-3	43.9	1382	1289	53.51%	15.22%	31.27%	+0.50	+15.8	15
1968-12-07	Glenavon	W 4-1	34.6	1496	1261	70.33%	14.87%	14.80%	+1.42	+9.9	22
1968-12-07	@ Ards	L 1-4	34.6	1261	1496	14.80%	14.87%	70.33%	-1.42	-10.0	3
1968-12-07	Coleraine	L 0-1	43.4	1398	1525	27.19%	15.17%	57.64%	-0.70	-7.5	15
1968-12-07	@ Crusaders	W 1-0	43.4	1525	1398	57.64%	15.17%	27.19%	+0.70	+7.5	18
1968-12-07	Ballymena United	W 5-1	43.5	1439	1436	44.39%	15.27%	40.35%	+0.06	+31.7	17
1968-12-07	@ Derry City	L 1-5	43.5	1436	1439	40.35%	15.27%	44.39%	-0.06	-31.7	13
1968-12-07	Lisburn Distillery	W 1-0	36.1	1594	1273	75.89%	14.56%	9.56%	+1.93	+2.8	18
1968-12-07	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	36.1	1273	1594	9.56%	14.56%	75.89%	-1.93	-2.8	9
1968-12-07	Bangor	W 4-1	33.2	1660	1187	81.91%	13.80%	4.29%	+2.81	+3.0	24
1968-12-07	@ Linfield	L 1-4	33.2	1187	1660	4.29%	13.80%	81.91%	-2.81	-3.0	9
1968-12-07	Cliftonville	L 2-3	54.0	1186	1111	54.18%	15.22%	30.60%	+0.49	-12.3	2
1968-12-07	@ Portadown	W 3-2	54.0	1111	1186	30.60%	15.22%	54.18%	-0.49	+12.3	6
1968-12-14	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	37.5	1506	1270	70.39%	14.87%	14.74%	+1.43	+7.0	24
1968-12-14	@ Ards	L 1-3	37.5	1270	1506	14.74%	14.87%	70.39%	-1.43	-7.0	9
1968-12-14	Ballymena United	W 2-1	48.9	1390	1405	41.99%	15.27%	42.75%	-0.04	+10.5	17
1968-12-14	@ Crusaders	L 1-2	48.9	1405	1390	42.75%	15.27%	41.99%	+0.04	-10.5	13
1968-12-14	Glenavon	W 4-1	34.4	1470	1251	69.13%	14.92%	15.95%	+1.33	+10.7	19
1968-12-14	@ Derry City	L 1-4	34.4	1251	1470	15.95%	14.92%	69.13%	-1.33	-10.7	3
1968-12-14	Cliftonville	W 4-0	24.2	1597	1123	81.95%	13.80%	4.26%	+2.82	+4.6	20
1968-12-14	@ Glentoran	L 0-4	24.2	1123	1597	4.26%	13.80%	81.95%	-2.82	-4.6	6
1968-12-14	Coleraine	L 0-1	62.5	1663	1532	60.70%	15.14%	24.16%	+0.81	-15.4	24
1968-12-14	@ Linfield	W 1-0	62.5	1532	1663	24.16%	15.14%	60.70%	-0.81	+15.4	20
1968-12-14	Bangor	L 1-2	45.4	1173	1184	42.51%	15.27%	42.22%	-0.02	-10.5	2
1968-12-14	@ Portadown	W 2-1	45.4	1184	1173	42.22%	15.27%	42.51%	+0.02	+10.5	11
1968-12-21	Portadown	W 3-2	42.7	1394	1163	70.05%	14.89%	15.07%	+1.40	+3.9	15
1968-12-21	@ Ballymena United	L 2-3	42.7	1163	1394	15.07%	14.89%	70.05%	-1.40	-3.9	2
1968-12-21	Glentoran	L 0-2	30.3	1195	1602	6.93%	14.24%	78.84%	-2.33	-3.9	11
1968-12-21	@ Bangor	W 2-0	30.3	1602	1195	78.84%	14.24%	6.93%	+2.33	+3.9	22
1968-12-21	Linfield	L 0-2	28.5	1119	1647	3.60%	13.56%	82.84%	-3.05	-2.0	6
1968-12-21	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	28.5	1647	1119	82.84%	13.56%	3.60%	+3.05	+2.0	26
1968-12-21	Ards	D 3-3	77.0	1548	1513	48.95%	15.26%	35.79%	+0.25	-0.5	21
1968-12-21	@ Coleraine	D 3-3	77.0	1513	1548	35.79%	15.26%	48.95%	-0.25	+0.5	25
1968-12-21	Crusaders	L 2-4	42.9	1240	1401	23.48%	15.11%	61.41%	-0.89	-9.6	3
1968-12-21	@ Glenavon	W 4-2	42.9	1401	1240	61.41%	15.11%	23.48%	+0.89	+9.6	19
1968-12-21	Derry City	L 0-4	29.0	1263	1481	18.01%	14.97%	67.02%	-1.23	-18.5	9
1968-12-21	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 4-0	29.0	1481	1263	67.02%	14.97%	18.01%	+1.23	+18.5	21
1968-12-25	Ballymena United	D 1-1	56.0	1191	1398	18.96%	15.00%	66.04%	-1.17	+2.9	12
1968-12-25	@ Bangor	D 1-1	56.0	1398	1191	66.04%	15.00%	18.96%	+1.17	-2.9	16
1968-12-25	Ards	D 3-3	66.2	1116	1513	7.31%	14.29%	78.41%	-2.27	+2.8	7
1968-12-25	@ Cliftonville	D 3-3	66.2	1513	1116	78.41%	14.29%	7.31%	+2.27	-2.8	26
1968-12-25	Derry City	L 1-2	59.4	1547	1500	50.64%	15.25%	34.11%	+0.33	-12.2	21
1968-12-25	@ Coleraine	W 2-1	59.4	1500	1547	34.11%	15.25%	50.64%	-0.33	+12.2	23
1968-12-25	Crusaders	L 0-2	55.6	1605	1410	67.06%	14.99%	17.95%	+1.19	-32.0	22
1968-12-25	@ Glentoran	W 2-0	55.6	1410	1605	17.95%	14.99%	67.06%	-1.19	+32.0	21
1968-12-25	Lisburn Distillery	D 0-0	58.2	1650	1244	79.68%	14.17%	6.15%	+2.42	-5.3	27
1968-12-25	@ Linfield	D 0-0	58.2	1244	1650	6.15%	14.17%	79.68%	-2.42	+5.3	10
1968-12-26	Glentoran	L 1-2	56.1	1510	1573	35.21%	15.25%	49.54%	-0.32	-8.9	26
1968-12-26	@ Ards	W 2-1	56.1	1573	1510	49.54%	15.25%	35.21%	+0.32	+8.9	24
1968-12-26	Coleraine	W 5-0	46.3	1395	1535	25.74%	15.15%	59.11%	-0.77	+66.1	18
1968-12-26	@ Ballymena United	L 0-5	46.3	1535	1395	59.11%	15.15%	25.74%	+0.77	-66.1	21
1968-12-26	Cliftonville	D 2-2	61.1	1442	1119	75.98%	14.55%	9.47%	+1.94	-3.2	22
1968-12-26	@ Crusaders	D 2-2	61.1	1119	1442	9.47%	14.55%	75.98%	-1.94	+3.2	8
1968-12-26	Bangor	W 3-0	27.1	1512	1194	75.71%	14.57%	9.72%	+1.91	+7.9	25
1968-12-26	@ Derry City	L 0-3	27.1	1194	1512	9.72%	14.57%	75.71%	-1.91	-7.9	12
1968-12-26	Linfield	L 1-5	33.1	1230	1644	6.67%	14.20%	79.12%	-2.38	-6.0	3
1968-12-26	@ Glenavon	W 5-1	33.1	1644	1230	79.12%	14.20%	6.67%	+2.38	+5.9	29
1968-12-26	Portadown	W 3-0	31.2	1250	1159	56.12%	15.20%	28.68%	+0.58	+21.6	12
1968-12-26	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 0-3	31.2	1159	1250	28.68%	15.20%	56.12%	-0.58	-21.6	2
1968-12-28	Glenavon	L 2-3	49.4	1186	1224	38.57%	15.26%	46.17%	-0.18	-9.1	12
1968-12-28	@ Bangor	W 3-2	49.4	1224	1186	46.17%	15.26%	38.57%	+0.18	+9.2	5
1968-12-28	Lisburn Distillery	W 5-2	38.9	1469	1271	67.29%	14.98%	17.73%	+1.20	+10.2	23
1968-12-28	@ Coleraine	L 2-5	38.9	1271	1469	17.73%	14.98%	67.29%	-1.20	-10.2	12
1968-12-28	Derry City	D 1-1	68.7	1582	1520	52.59%	15.23%	32.17%	+0.41	-1.2	25
1968-12-28	@ Glentoran	D 1-1	68.7	1520	1582	32.17%	15.23%	52.59%	-0.41	+1.2	26
1968-12-28	Ards	W 1-0	52.2	1137	1501	8.67%	14.44%	76.89%	-2.08	+19.6	4
1968-12-28	@ Portadown	L 0-1	52.2	1501	1137	76.89%	14.44%	8.67%	+2.08	-19.6	26
1969-01-04	Linfield	L 1-2	53.8	1482	1650	22.68%	15.09%	62.22%	-0.94	-6.0	26
1969-01-04	@ Ards	W 2-1	53.8	1650	1482	62.22%	15.09%	22.68%	+0.94	+6.0	31
1969-01-04	Glentoran	D 2-2	71.7	1461	1581	28.04%	15.18%	56.77%	-0.65	+1.3	19
1969-01-04	@ Ballymena United	D 2-2	71.7	1581	1461	56.77%	15.18%	28.04%	+0.65	-1.3	26
1969-01-04	Bangor	W 2-0	29.7	1439	1177	72.32%	14.78%	12.90%	+1.58	+7.1	24
1969-01-04	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	29.7	1177	1439	12.90%	14.78%	72.32%	-1.58	-7.1	12
1969-01-04	Portadown	W 4-0	24.8	1521	1157	77.98%	14.37%	7.65%	+2.18	+8.2	28
1969-01-04	@ Derry City	L 0-4	24.8	1157	1521	7.65%	14.37%	77.98%	-2.18	-8.2	4
1969-01-04	Coleraine	W 2-1	55.3	1234	1479	15.78%	14.89%	69.33%	-1.39	+16.6	7
1969-01-04	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	55.3	1479	1234	69.33%	14.89%	15.78%	+1.39	-16.6	23
1969-01-04	Cliftonville	D 1-1	55.3	1261	1123	61.58%	15.12%	23.30%	+0.86	-2.3	13
1969-01-04	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	55.3	1123	1261	23.30%	15.12%	61.58%	-0.86	+2.3	9
1969-01-11	Coleraine	L 2-4	39.4	1170	1463	12.47%	14.73%	72.80%	-1.67	-5.3	12
1969-01-11	@ Bangor	W 4-2	39.4	1463	1170	72.80%	14.73%	12.47%	+1.67	+5.4	25
1969-01-11	Glenavon	L 0-4	29.5	1125	1250	27.39%	15.17%	57.44%	-0.69	-27.1	9
1969-01-11	@ Cliftonville	W 4-0	29.5	1250	1125	57.44%	15.17%	27.39%	+0.69	+27.1	9
1969-01-11	Ards	W 3-0	42.6	1529	1476	51.39%	15.24%	33.36%	+0.36	+24.7	30
1969-01-11	@ Derry City	L 0-3	42.6	1476	1529	33.36%	15.24%	51.39%	-0.36	-24.7	26
1969-01-11	Linfield	W 2-1	65.0	1580	1656	33.46%	15.24%	51.31%	-0.40	+12.4	28
1969-01-11	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	65.0	1656	1580	51.31%	15.24%	33.46%	+0.40	-12.4	31
1969-01-11	Ballymena United	D 2-2	62.4	1259	1463	19.28%	15.01%	65.71%	-1.15	+2.1	14
1969-01-11	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 2-2	62.4	1463	1259	65.71%	15.01%	19.28%	+1.15	-2.1	20
1969-01-16	Glenavon	L 0-1	36.5	1149	1277	27.02%	15.17%	57.81%	-0.71	-7.5	4
1969-01-16	@ Portadown	W 1-0	36.5	1277	1149	57.81%	15.17%	27.02%	+0.71	+7.5	11
1969-01-18	Ards	L 1-4	48.0	1460	1451	45.39%	15.27%	39.34%	+0.10	-27.2	20
1969-01-18	@ Ballymena United	W 4-1	48.0	1451	1460	39.34%	15.27%	45.39%	-0.10	+27.2	28
1969-01-18	Glentoran	W 2-1	61.9	1468	1592	27.53%	15.18%	57.30%	-0.68	+13.7	27
1969-01-18	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	61.9	1592	1468	57.30%	15.18%	27.53%	+0.68	-13.7	28
1969-01-18	Derry City	W 4-1	54.1	1446	1554	29.53%	15.20%	55.27%	-0.58	+32.4	26
1969-01-18	@ Crusaders	L 1-4	54.1	1554	1446	55.27%	15.20%	29.53%	+0.58	-32.5	30
1969-01-18	Lisburn Distillery	W 4-0	33.0	1285	1261	47.41%	15.26%	37.33%	+0.19	+35.6	13
1969-01-18	@ Glenavon	L 0-4	33.0	1261	1285	37.33%	15.26%	47.41%	-0.19	-35.6	14
1969-01-18	Portadown	W 8-1	28.2	1644	1141	82.72%	13.63%	3.65%	+2.99	+5.5	33
1969-01-18	@ Linfield	L 1-8	28.2	1141	1644	3.65%	13.63%	82.72%	-2.99	-5.4	4
1969-01-21	Crusaders	W 3-0	42.9	1649	1479	64.79%	15.05%	20.15%	+1.04	+15.7	35
1969-01-21	@ Linfield	L 0-3	42.9	1479	1649	20.15%	15.05%	64.79%	-1.04	-15.7	26
1969-01-22	Ballymena United	L 0-3	25.8	1098	1433	10.05%	14.56%	75.39%	-1.92	-8.2	9
1969-01-22	@ Cliftonville	W 3-0	25.8	1433	1098	75.39%	14.56%	10.05%	+1.92	+8.2	22
1969-01-25	Crusaders	D 1-1	62.9	1478	1463	46.19%	15.26%	38.55%	+0.13	-0.4	29
1969-01-25	@ Ards	D 1-1	62.9	1463	1478	38.55%	15.26%	46.19%	-0.13	+0.4	27
1969-01-25	Glenavon	D 1-1	58.0	1441	1320	59.65%	15.16%	25.19%	+0.75	-2.1	23
1969-01-25	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	58.0	1320	1441	25.19%	15.16%	59.65%	-0.75	+2.1	14
1969-01-25	Coleraine	L 0-5	23.9	1090	1482	7.48%	14.31%	78.21%	-2.25	-9.8	9
1969-01-25	@ Cliftonville	W 5-0	23.9	1482	1090	78.21%	14.31%	7.48%	+2.25	+9.8	29
1969-01-25	Linfield	W 2-1	66.4	1521	1665	25.31%	15.14%	59.54%	-0.79	+14.2	32
1969-01-25	@ Derry City	L 1-2	66.4	1665	1521	59.54%	15.14%	25.31%	+0.79	-14.2	35
1969-01-25	Bangor	W 5-1	35.7	1225	1164	52.41%	15.24%	32.35%	+0.40	+26.2	16
1969-01-25	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 1-5	35.7	1164	1225	32.35%	15.24%	52.41%	-0.40	-26.2	12
1969-01-25	Glentoran	L 0-2	28.4	1136	1578	5.73%	14.05%	80.22%	-2.54	-3.2	4
1969-01-25	@ Portadown	W 2-0	28.4	1578	1136	80.22%	14.05%	5.73%	+2.54	+3.2	30
1969-01-30	Cliftonville	L 0-1	43.8	1138	1080	52.04%	15.24%	32.72%	+0.39	-13.3	12
1969-01-30	@ Bangor	W 1-0	43.8	1080	1138	32.72%	15.24%	52.04%	-0.39	+13.3	11
1969-01-30	Crusaders	L 1-4	31.4	1133	1464	10.29%	14.58%	75.13%	-1.89	-7.0	4
1969-01-30	@ Portadown	W 4-1	31.4	1464	1133	75.13%	14.58%	10.29%	+1.89	+7.0	29

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1968-10-05	5.72%	Bangor	1193	2	@ Glentoran	1612	1
2	1968-12-28	8.67%	@ Portadown	1137	1	Ards	1501	0
3	1968-11-09	15.03%	Cliftonville	1086	5	@ Glenavon	1318	3
4	1969-01-04	15.78%	@ Glenavon	1234	2	Coleraine	1479	1
5	1968-12-25	17.95%	Crusaders	1410	2	@ Glentoran	1605	0
6	1968-10-26	21.32%	Bangor	1186	2	@ Glenavon	1345	1
7	1968-09-21	21.81%	Lisburn Distillery	1244	2	@ Crusaders	1398	1
8	1968-10-26	22.25%	@ Derry City	1416	2	Glentoran	1588	1
9	1968-10-19	22.63%	Ballymena United	1393	6	@ Coleraine	1538	1
10	1968-12-14	24.16%	Coleraine	1532	1	@ Linfield	1663	0
11	1969-01-25	25.31%	@ Derry City	1521	2	Linfield	1665	1
12	1968-12-26	25.74%	@ Ballymena United	1395	5	Coleraine	1535	0
13	1968-11-16	26.90%	Coleraine	1496	1	@ Glentoran	1602	0
14	1969-01-18	27.53%	@ Coleraine	1468	2	Glentoran	1592	1
15	1968-11-23	28.49%	@ Bangor	1185	4	Lisburn Distillery	1301	3
16	1969-01-18	29.53%	@ Crusaders	1446	4	Derry City	1554	1
17	1968-10-05	30.49%	@ Ards	1453	3	Coleraine	1553	1
18	1968-12-07	30.60%	Cliftonville	1111	3	@ Portadown	1186	2
19	1968-09-14	30.69%	@ Bangor	1193	2	Portadown	1291	1
20	1968-11-09	30.78%	Glentoran	1573	3	@ Linfield	1647	1
21	1969-01-30	32.72%	Cliftonville	1080	1	@ Bangor	1138	0
22	1969-01-11	33.46%	@ Glentoran	1580	2	Linfield	1656	1
23	1968-09-28	33.55%	@ Ballymena United	1350	5	Derry City	1426	3
24	1968-12-25	34.11%	Derry City	1500	2	@ Coleraine	1547	1
25	1969-01-18	39.34%	Ards	1451	4	@ Ballymena United	1460	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1968-12-26	66.08	@ Ballymena United	5	1395	25.74%	Coleraine	0	1535	59.11%	15.15%
2	1968-10-19	57.58	Ballymena United	6	1393	22.63%	@ Coleraine	1	1538	62.26%	15.11%
3	1969-01-18	35.57	@ Glenavon	4	1285	47.41%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1261	37.33%	15.26%
4	1969-01-18	32.45	@ Crusaders	4	1446	29.53%	Derry City	1	1554	55.27%	15.20%
5	1968-12-25	32.04	Crusaders	2	1410	17.95%	@ Glentoran	0	1605	67.06%	14.99%
6	1968-12-07	31.69	@ Derry City	5	1439	44.39%	Ballymena United	1	1436	40.35%	15.27%
7	1968-11-16	31.34	@ Lisburn Distillery	3	1270	40.72%	Glenavon	0	1293	44.01%	15.27%
8	1969-01-18	27.15	Ards	4	1451	39.34%	@ Ballymena United	1	1460	45.39%	15.27%
9	1969-01-11	27.13	Glenavon	4	1250	57.44%	@ Cliftonville	0	1125	27.39%	15.17%
10	1969-01-25	26.19	@ Lisburn Distillery	5	1225	52.41%	Bangor	1	1164	32.35%	15.24%
11	1969-01-11	24.71	@ Derry City	3	1529	51.39%	Ards	0	1476	33.36%	15.24%
12	1968-11-09	24.54	Cliftonville	5	1086	15.03%	@ Glenavon	3	1318	70.08%	14.88%
13	1968-10-12	24.14	@ Glenavon	3	1331	52.28%	Portadown	0	1271	32.48%	15.24%
14	1968-11-16	23.02	@ Derry City	4	1427	47.31%	Crusaders	1	1404	37.43%	15.26%
15	1968-10-05	22.57	@ Ards	3	1453	30.49%	Coleraine	1	1553	54.30%	15.21%
16	1968-11-09	22.45	Glentoran	3	1573	30.78%	@ Linfield	1	1647	54.00%	15.22%
17	1968-09-14	21.88	Derry City	2	1385	40.01%	@ Glenavon	0	1390	44.73%	15.27%
18	1968-10-19	21.68	Lisburn Distillery	2	1245	40.49%	@ Portadown	0	1247	44.25%	15.27%
19	1968-12-26	21.64	@ Lisburn Distillery	3	1250	56.12%	Portadown	0	1159	28.68%	15.20%
20	1968-09-21	19.74	@ Glentoran	7	1590	69.35%	Glenavon	1	1368	15.74%	14.91%
21	1968-12-28	19.58	@ Portadown	1	1137	8.67%	Ards	0	1501	76.89%	14.44%
22	1968-10-05	19.28	Bangor	2	1193	5.72%	@ Glentoran	1	1612	80.19%	14.10%
23	1968-09-21	19.11	@ Derry City	6	1407	72.84%	Cliftonville	0	1137	12.41%	14.75%
24	1968-11-12	18.73	@ Linfield	3	1625	60.45%	Ards	0	1496	24.41%	15.14%
25	1968-09-14	18.53	Crusaders	3	1379	41.18%	@ Ballymena United	1	1376	43.55%	15.27%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1968-12-21	77.0	@ Coleraine	3	1548	48.95%	Ards	3	1513	35.79%	15.26%
2	1969-01-04	71.7	@ Ballymena United	2	1461	28.04%	Glentoran	2	1581	56.77%	15.18%
3	1968-11-23	70.1	@ Crusaders	3	1381	29.80%	Ards	3	1486	55.00%	15.20%
4	1968-12-28	68.7	@ Glentoran	1	1582	52.59%	Derry City	1	1520	32.17%	15.23%
5	1968-10-19	67.6	@ Glentoran	1	1590	58.67%	Ards	1	1478	26.16%	15.17%
6	1969-01-25	66.4	@ Derry City	2	1521	25.31%	Linfield	1	1665	59.54%	15.14%
7	1968-12-25	66.2	@ Cliftonville	3	1116	7.31%	Ards	3	1513	78.41%	14.29%
8	1969-01-11	65.0	@ Glentoran	2	1580	33.46%	Linfield	1	1656	51.31%	15.24%
9	1968-10-12	64.7	@ Crusaders	1	1395	19.75%	Glentoran	1	1593	65.22%	15.02%
10	1968-11-09	63.0	Glentoran	3	1573	30.78%	@ Linfield	1	1647	54.00%	15.22%
11	1968-09-28	62.9	@ Coleraine	1	1556	65.06%	Crusaders	1	1383	19.90%	15.05%
12	1969-01-25	62.9	@ Ards	1	1478	46.19%	Crusaders	1	1463	38.55%	15.26%
13	1968-10-26	62.8	@ Lisburn Distillery	2	1267	18.39%	Coleraine	2	1481	66.63%	14.98%
14	1968-12-14	62.5	Coleraine	1	1532	24.16%	@ Linfield	0	1663	60.70%	15.14%
15	1969-01-11	62.4	@ Lisburn Distillery	2	1259	19.28%	Ballymena United	2	1463	65.71%	15.01%
16	1968-11-23	62.2	@ Glenavon	2	1262	21.36%	Ballymena United	2	1443	63.58%	15.06%
17	1969-01-18	61.9	@ Coleraine	2	1468	27.53%	Glentoran	1	1592	57.30%	15.18%
18	1968-10-26	61.4	@ Derry City	2	1416	22.25%	Glentoran	1	1588	62.66%	15.09%
19	1968-12-26	61.1	@ Crusaders	2	1442	75.98%	Cliftonville	2	1119	9.47%	14.55%
20	1968-11-30	61.0	@ Cliftonville	2	1108	10.12%	Derry City	2	1442	75.32%	14.57%
21	1968-11-16	60.2	@ Cliftonville	2	1110	33.59%	Bangor	2	1186	51.17%	15.24%
22	1968-10-05	60.0	Bangor	2	1193	5.72%	@ Glentoran	1	1612	80.19%	14.10%
23	1968-11-16	59.8	@ Ards	4	1478	47.66%	Ballymena United	3	1452	37.08%	15.26%
24	1968-12-25	59.4	Derry City	2	1500	34.11%	@ Coleraine	1	1547	50.64%	15.25%
25	1968-11-16	59.0	Coleraine	1	1496	26.90%	@ Glentoran	0	1602	57.92%	15.18%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1969-01-25	23.9	Coleraine	5	1482	78.21%	@ Cliftonville	0	1090	7.48%	14.31%
2	1968-12-14	24.2	@ Glentoran	4	1597	81.95%	Cliftonville	0	1123	4.26%	13.80%
3	1969-01-04	24.8	@ Derry City	4	1521	77.98%	Portadown	0	1157	7.65%	14.37%
4	1969-01-22	25.8	Ballymena United	3	1433	75.39%	@ Cliftonville	0	1098	10.05%	14.56%
5	1968-11-30	25.9	@ Coleraine	4	1515	75.73%	Portadown	0	1196	9.70%	14.57%
6	1968-09-21	26.0	@ Derry City	6	1407	72.84%	Cliftonville	0	1137	12.41%	14.75%
7	1968-12-26	27.1	@ Derry City	3	1512	75.71%	Bangor	0	1194	9.72%	14.57%
8	1968-11-23	27.7	@ Coleraine	2	1511	79.47%	Cliftonville	0	1111	6.33%	14.19%
9	1968-11-30	27.8	Ards	3	1485	72.45%	@ Bangor	0	1198	12.80%	14.75%
10	1969-01-18	28.2	@ Linfield	8	1644	82.72%	Portadown	1	1141	3.65%	13.63%
11	1969-01-25	28.4	Glentoran	2	1578	80.22%	@ Portadown	0	1136	5.73%	14.05%
12	1968-12-21	28.5	Linfield	2	1647	82.84%	@ Cliftonville	0	1119	3.60%	13.56%
13	1968-12-21	29.0	Derry City	4	1481	67.02%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	1263	18.01%	14.97%
14	1968-10-12	29.4	@ Ballymena United	3	1377	64.19%	Bangor	0	1213	20.74%	15.07%
15	1969-01-11	29.5	Glenavon	4	1250	57.44%	@ Cliftonville	0	1125	27.39%	15.17%
16	1968-11-09	29.7	@ Coleraine	2	1490	74.60%	Bangor	0	1192	10.75%	14.65%
17	1969-01-04	29.7	@ Crusaders	2	1439	72.32%	Bangor	0	1177	12.90%	14.78%
18	1968-11-23	30.1	@ Glentoran	2	1587	78.99%	Portadown	0	1200	6.76%	14.25%
19	1968-10-05	30.2	@ Linfield	4	1610	82.81%	Cliftonville	1	1104	3.58%	13.61%
20	1968-12-21	30.3	Glentoran	2	1602	78.84%	@ Bangor	0	1195	6.93%	14.24%
21	1968-09-28	30.4	Linfield	2	1606	78.93%	@ Bangor	0	1197	6.84%	14.23%
22	1968-09-21	30.6	@ Ards	2	1437	70.07%	Bangor	0	1206	15.04%	14.89%
23	1968-09-21	30.7	Coleraine	3	1544	70.96%	@ Portadown	0	1278	14.22%	14.82%
24	1968-10-12	30.8	@ Ards	1	1476	78.42%	Cliftonville	0	1102	7.26%	14.32%
25	1968-11-16	31.1	Linfield	2	1643	80.13%	@ Portadown	0	1203	5.80%	14.07%