1975-76 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Crusaders

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Crusaders

8.66 points above expected

36 points · 27.34 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ballymena United

6.36 points below expected

21 points · 27.36 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Crusaders	22	15	6	1	36	51	19	+32	27.34	+8.66
2	Glentoran	22	14	4	4	32	48	22	+26	29.19	+2.81
3	Coleraine	22	13	5	4	31	42	27	+15	29.56	+1.44
4	Linfield	22	11	5	6	27	43	25	+18	30.24	-3.24
5	Bangor	22	9	7	6	25	28	27	+1	24.33	+0.67
6	Ballymena United	22	8	5	9	21	36	35	+1	27.36	-6.36
7	Ards	22	7	5	10	19	32	43	-11	16.90	+2.10
8	Portadown	22	7	3	12	17	34	39	-5	17.38	-0.38
9	Cliftonville	22	6	4	12	16	32	46	-14	14.22	+1.78
10	Larne	22	6	3	13	15	32	45	-13	20.95	-5.95
11	Glenavon	22	4	7	11	15	24	44	-20	14.23	+0.77
12	Lisburn Distillery	22	3	4	15	10	24	54	-30	12.30	-2.30

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Crusaders	36	27.34	+8.66
2	Glentoran	32	29.19	+2.81
3	Ards	19	16.90	+2.10
4	Cliftonville	16	14.22	+1.78
5	Coleraine	31	29.56	+1.44

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Ballymena United	21	27.36	-6.36
2	Larne	15	20.95	-5.95
3	Linfield	27	30.24	-3.24
4	Lisburn Distillery	10	12.30	-2.30
5	Portadown	17	17.38	-0.38

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Crusaders	8	Jan 17 – Mar 27	1 in 178
2	Glentoran	8	Jan 10 – Mar 20	1 in 144
3	Cliftonville	2	Nov 29 – Dec 6	1 in 20
4	Ards	2	Jan 3 – Jan 10	1 in 18
5	Lisburn Distillery	2	Jan 17 – Jan 24	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Glentoran	3	Mar 27 – Apr 17	1 in 307
2	Portadown	6	Jan 1 – Feb 7	1 in 80
3	Linfield	3	Nov 22 – Dec 6	1 in 56
4	Ballymena United	3	Jan 17 – Feb 7	1 in 35
5	Coleraine	2	Jan 10 – Jan 17	1 in 23

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Crusaders	14	Jan 3 – Apr 24	1 in 90
2	Glentoran	14	Dec 13 – Mar 20	1 in 43
3	Bangor	7	Nov 22 – Dec 27	1 in 25
4	Portadown	4	Mar 27 – Apr 17	1 in 22
5	Glenavon	3	Feb 28 – Mar 20	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bangor	7	Mar 6 – Apr 24	1 in 110
2	Glentoran	5	Mar 27 – Apr 24	1 in 100
3	Crusaders	6	Dec 20 – Jan 10	1 in 57
4	Ballymena United	6	Jan 17 – Mar 13	1 in 39
5	Portadown	10	Dec 13 – Feb 7	1 in 25

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Crusaders	1374	36	+39	9	6.3	+2.7
Glentoran	1372	32	-40	2	7.0	-5.0
Coleraine	1376	31	+13	8	6.6	+1.4
Linfield	1385	27	+14	8	7.4	+0.6
Bangor	1231	25	-28	3	5.9	-2.9
Ballymena United	1249	21	-40	4	6.1	-2.1
Ards	1115	19	+8	5	3.5	+1.5
Portadown	1150	17	+34	7	4.2	+2.8
Cliftonville	1063	16	-12	3	3.8	-0.8
Glenavon	1076	15	+17	4	2.8	+1.2
Larne	1118	15	-37	2	3.7	-1.7
Lisburn Distillery	983	10	+5	3	2.3	+0.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ARD	BU	BAN	CLI	COL	CRU	GLE	GLE	LAR	LIN	LD	POR
Ards	—	1-1-0 1.51	0-1-1 1.71	1-1-0 3.09	1-0-1 1.14	0-1-1 1.41	1-1-0 3.04	1-0-1 1.21	1-0-1 2.39	0-0-2 1.22	1-0-1 3.43	0-0-2 3.03
Ballymena United	0-1-1 4.04	—	1-1-0 3.08	1-0-1 4.30	1-0-1 2.10	0-0-2 2.81	1-1-0 4.32	0-0-2 2.63	2-0-0 3.63	0-1-1 2.09	2-0-0 4.59	0-1-1 4.11
Bangor	1-1-0 3.84	0-1-1 2.46	—	1-1-0 4.01	1-1-0 1.85	0-1-1 2.50	1-1-0 3.94	1-0-1 1.99	2-0-0 2.91	0-0-2 1.96	1-1-0 4.47	1-0-1 3.68
Cliftonville	0-1-1 2.45	1-0-1 1.27	0-1-1 1.54	—	0-1-1 1.03	0-0-2 1.34	1-1-0 2.50	0-0-2 1.09	2-0-0 1.67	0-0-2 1.04	1-0-1 3.44	1-0-1 2.29
Coleraine	1-0-1 4.43	1-0-1 3.43	0-1-1 3.69	1-1-0 4.55	—	1-1-0 3.16	2-0-0 4.56	0-1-1 2.85	2-0-0 4.10	1-1-0 2.73	2-0-0 4.76	2-0-0 4.41
Crusaders	1-1-0 4.15	2-0-0 2.73	1-1-0 3.03	2-0-0 4.22	0-1-1 2.37	—	2-0-0 4.37	1-1-0 2.33	1-1-0 3.82	2-0-0 2.09	1-1-0 4.60	2-0-0 4.02
Glenavon	0-1-1 2.49	0-1-1 1.24	0-1-1 1.61	0-1-1 3.04	0-0-2 1.02	0-0-2 1.20	—	0-1-1 1.04	1-0-1 1.85	0-1-1 1.06	1-1-0 3.16	2-0-0 2.25
Glentoran	1-0-1 4.36	2-0-0 2.90	1-0-1 3.55	2-0-0 4.49	1-1-0 2.68	0-1-1 3.20	1-1-0 4.54	—	0-1-1 4.10	2-0-0 2.72	2-0-0 4.62	2-0-0 4.31
Larne	1-0-1 3.14	0-0-2 1.91	0-0-2 2.63	0-0-2 3.88	0-0-2 1.46	0-1-1 1.73	1-0-1 3.69	1-1-0 1.45	—	1-0-1 1.64	2-0-0 4.03	0-1-1 3.38
Linfield	2-0-0 4.34	1-1-0 3.45	2-0-0 3.59	2-0-0 4.54	0-1-1 2.80	0-0-2 3.45	1-1-0 4.52	0-0-2 2.82	1-0-1 3.91	—	1-1-0 4.86	1-1-0 4.42
Lisburn Distillery	1-0-1 2.11	0-0-2 1.00	0-1-1 1.11	1-0-1 2.10	0-0-2 0.84	0-1-1 0.98	0-1-1 2.38	0-0-2 0.96	0-0-2 1.53	0-1-1 0.75	—	1-0-1 2.15
Portadown	2-0-0 2.50	1-1-0 1.45	1-0-1 1.86	1-0-1 3.25	0-0-2 1.16	0-0-2 1.53	0-0-2 3.28	0-0-2 1.26	1-1-0 2.16	0-1-1 1.15	1-0-1 3.39	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.78	+8.2
Allowed	0.93	-7.0
Differential	0.95	+4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.03%	7.20%	4.17%	4.17%	0.38%	1.52%	20.45%
1	7.20%	12.88%	6.82%	3.79%	2.27%	1.14%	34.09%
2	4.17%	6.82%	6.06%	3.79%	1.89%	1.14%	23.86%
3	4.17%	3.79%	3.79%	—	0.38%	0.38%	12.50%
4	0.38%	2.27%	1.89%	0.38%	—	—	4.92%
5+	1.52%	1.14%	1.14%	0.38%	—	—	4.17%
Total	20.45%	34.09%	23.86%	12.50%	4.92%	4.17%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.61	+0.00
SD	1.35	1.35	2.03
CV	0.84	0.84	—
Max	7	7	+7
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	22.73%	—	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	22.73%	22.73%	36.36%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.95	-0.50
SD	1.22	1.17	1.82
CV	0.84	0.60	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	13.64%	22.73%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	50.00%
2	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	45.45%	22.73%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.59	+0.05
SD	1.36	1.26	1.84
CV	0.83	0.79	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
1	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	40.91%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	1.23	+0.05
SD	1.12	1.11	1.68
CV	0.88	0.90	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	31.82%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	22.73%	—	22.73%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	2.09	-0.64
SD	1.14	1.69	1.94
CV	0.79	0.81	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
1	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	—	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	40.91%	22.73%	4.55%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.23	+0.68
SD	1.57	1.19	1.84
CV	0.82	0.97	—
Max	7	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
2	13.64%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	36.36%
3	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	45.45%	27.27%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.32	0.86	+1.45
SD	1.59	0.94	1.90
CV	0.68	1.09	—
Max	7	3	+7
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
1	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	40.91%
2	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	40.91%	18.18%	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	2.00	-0.91
SD	1.06	1.48	2.00
CV	0.98	0.74	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
3	13.64%	—	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	36.36%	31.82%	27.27%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.18	1.00	+1.18
SD	1.40	0.93	1.74
CV	0.64	0.93	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	—	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	36.36%
2	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	4.55%	36.36%	22.73%	22.73%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	2.05	-0.59
SD	1.26	1.17	1.62
CV	0.87	0.57	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
3	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	31.82%	36.36%	18.18%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	1.14	+0.82
SD	1.43	1.04	1.92
CV	0.73	0.91	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	13.64%	36.36%
1	—	13.64%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	4.55%	31.82%	22.73%	22.73%	—	18.18%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.09	2.45	-1.36
SD	1.23	1.74	2.26
CV	1.13	0.71	—
Max	5	7	+3
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	13.64%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	50.00%
2	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	27.27%	45.45%	9.09%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.77	-0.23
SD	1.41	1.45	2.00
CV	0.91	0.82	—
Max	5	7	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Linfield	1385	27	30.24	-3.24	19.0%	19	25	28	30	32	35	41
Coleraine	1376	31	29.56	+1.44	66.0%	21	23	27	30	32	35	38
Crusaders	1374	36	27.34	+8.66	100.0%	20	21	25	27	30	33	36
Glentoran	1372	32	29.19	+2.81	76.0%	23	24	26	29	32	35	37
Ballymena United	1249	21	27.36	-6.36	5.0%	19	21	25	28	30	33	35
Bangor	1231	25	24.33	+0.67	59.0%	14	18	21	25	27	30	33
Portadown	1150	17	17.38	-0.38	53.0%	9	11	15	17	20	22	28
Larne	1118	15	20.95	-5.95	7.0%	12	14	18	21	23	27	31
Ards	1115	19	16.90	+2.10	75.0%	8	11	14	17	19	23	26
Glenavon	1076	15	14.23	+0.77	71.0%	6	10	12	14	16	20	23
Cliftonville	1063	16	14.22	+1.78	75.0%	7	8	12	14	16	20	23
Lisburn Distillery	983	10	12.30	-2.30	35.0%	4	7	10	12	14	18	22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+6.82%

No Edge

42.42%21.97%35.61%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 23.73 Elo pts.

198 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.21 goals

Neutral

-2+0.12+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.4

Wide Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

12%

Crusaders, 4th of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.18/gm

Tight Race

00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.86 * Some Luck: 2.86 to 4.29 * Lucky: 4.29 to 5.72 * Wild Swing: 5.72 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.09 * Close: 1.09 to 1.63 * Off: 1.63 to 2.17 * Way Off: 2.17 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.93 points

Some Luck

03.579

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.67

Off

01.363

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

100.00%

Crusaders

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

5.00%

Ballymena United

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Even

00.190.250.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 143.14

1.96

Moderate Separation

11.852.253

Interquartile Edge

82%

Wide Edge

50%70%81%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 95%

91%

Even

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Frequent

0%54%100%

Blowouts

Expected

21%

Occasional

0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.57

Predictable

00.572

Matchup Imbalance

0.45

Notable Separation

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.25

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.78

Near-Lock

00.470.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

24%

Very Upset-Prone

0%21%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Very Shaky

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.

Probability calibration

0.47

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.94

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.066

Well Within Noise

00.1470.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Crusaders	12.00%	17.00%	15.00%	15.00%	22.00%	13.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Glentoran	23.00%	20.00%	19.00%	14.00%	12.00%	9.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Coleraine	30.00%	20.00%	14.00%	16.00%	11.00%	7.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Linfield	25.00%	28.00%	23.00%	17.00%	1.00%	5.00%	—	—	1.00%	—	—	—
Bangor	—	6.00%	11.00%	15.00%	14.00%	23.00%	16.00%	10.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—	—
Ballymena United	10.00%	8.00%	16.00%	21.00%	25.00%	12.00%	6.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	—	—
Ards	—	—	—	—	2.00%	5.00%	18.00%	15.00%	26.00%	9.00%	18.00%	7.00%
Portadown	—	—	1.00%	—	5.00%	3.00%	14.00%	27.00%	23.00%	16.00%	7.00%	4.00%
Cliftonville	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	5.00%	11.00%	16.00%	27.00%	25.00%	15.00%
Larne	—	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	7.00%	21.00%	25.00%	25.00%	10.00%	2.00%	5.00%	1.00%
Glenavon	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	6.00%	14.00%	31.00%	21.00%	22.00%
Lisburn Distillery	—	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	4.00%	7.00%	12.00%	24.00%	51.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Ards	100%
Ballymena United	100%
Bangor	100%
Cliftonville	100%
Coleraine	100%
Crusaders	100%
Glenavon	100%
Glentoran	100%
Larne	100%
Linfield	100%
Lisburn Distillery	100%
Portadown	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1975-11-22	Glentoran	L 1-2	47.8	1300	1314	41.42%	23.30%	35.28%	+0.05	-8.7	0
1975-11-22	@ Ballymena United	W 2-1	47.8	1314	1300	35.28%	23.30%	41.42%	-0.05	+8.7	2
1975-11-22	Glenavon	D 2-2	58.3	1228	1121	56.31%	22.78%	20.90%	+0.66	-1.3	1
1975-11-22	@ Bangor	D 2-2	58.3	1121	1228	20.90%	22.78%	56.31%	-0.66	+1.3	1
1975-11-22	Crusaders	L 0-2	31.2	1035	1245	18.03%	22.26%	59.71%	-0.94	-8.7	0
1975-11-22	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	31.2	1245	1035	59.71%	22.26%	18.03%	+0.94	+8.7	2
1975-11-22	Larne	L 2-3	58.5	1372	1214	61.24%	22.32%	16.44%	+0.91	-11.6	0
1975-11-22	@ Linfield	W 3-2	58.5	1214	1372	16.44%	22.32%	61.24%	-0.91	+11.7	2
1975-11-22	Ards	L 0-2	36.1	1043	1115	33.32%	23.23%	43.45%	-0.24	-14.6	0
1975-11-22	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 2-0	36.1	1115	1043	43.45%	23.23%	33.32%	+0.24	+14.6	2
1975-11-22	Coleraine	L 1-2	38.9	1130	1377	15.16%	21.83%	63.01%	-1.13	-3.7	0
1975-11-22	@ Portadown	W 2-1	38.9	1377	1130	63.01%	21.83%	15.16%	+1.13	+3.7	2
1975-11-29	Ballymena United	D 1-1	53.0	1130	1291	22.64%	22.73%	54.63%	-0.69	+1.5	3
1975-11-29	@ Ards	D 1-1	53.0	1291	1130	54.63%	22.73%	22.64%	+0.69	-1.6	1
1975-11-29	Linfield	W 3-0	35.5	1380	1360	46.06%	23.24%	30.69%	+0.22	+19.9	4
1975-11-29	@ Coleraine	L 0-3	35.5	1360	1380	30.69%	23.24%	46.06%	-0.22	-19.9	0
1975-11-29	Portadown	W 2-1	40.0	1254	1126	58.46%	22.61%	18.93%	+0.76	+4.6	4
1975-11-29	@ Crusaders	L 1-2	40.0	1126	1254	18.93%	22.61%	58.46%	-0.76	-4.6	0
1975-11-29	Cliftonville	L 0-3	40.3	1122	1026	55.21%	22.86%	21.93%	+0.61	-32.3	1
1975-11-29	@ Glenavon	W 3-0	40.3	1026	1122	21.93%	22.86%	55.21%	-0.61	+32.3	2
1975-11-29	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-0	25.6	1322	1029	71.14%	20.45%	8.41%	+1.60	+6.2	4
1975-11-29	@ Glentoran	L 0-3	25.6	1029	1322	8.41%	20.45%	71.14%	-1.60	-6.2	0
1975-11-29	Bangor	L 2-3	52.8	1226	1227	43.21%	23.29%	33.50%	+0.11	-8.5	2
1975-11-29	@ Larne	W 3-2	52.8	1227	1226	33.50%	23.29%	43.21%	-0.11	+8.5	3
1975-12-06	Glenavon	W 4-1	32.8	1290	1090	64.77%	21.83%	13.40%	+1.13	+8.2	3
1975-12-06	@ Ballymena United	L 1-4	32.8	1090	1290	13.40%	21.83%	64.77%	-1.13	-8.2	1
1975-12-06	Glentoran	W 2-0	40.7	1235	1329	30.48%	23.15%	46.37%	-0.35	+19.0	5
1975-12-06	@ Bangor	L 0-2	40.7	1329	1235	46.37%	23.15%	30.48%	+0.35	-19.0	4
1975-12-06	Larne	W 1-0	45.7	1058	1217	22.90%	22.75%	54.35%	-0.68	+11.6	4
1975-12-06	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	45.7	1217	1058	54.35%	22.75%	22.90%	+0.68	-11.6	2
1975-12-06	Crusaders	L 0-1	46.3	1340	1258	53.55%	22.96%	23.49%	+0.53	-11.5	0
1975-12-06	@ Linfield	W 1-0	46.3	1258	1340	23.49%	22.96%	53.55%	-0.53	+11.5	6
1975-12-06	Coleraine	L 2-3	41.1	1022	1400	7.99%	19.83%	72.19%	-1.78	-1.9	0
1975-12-06	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-2	41.1	1400	1022	72.19%	19.83%	7.99%	+1.78	+1.9	6
1975-12-06	Ards	W 3-2	50.0	1121	1131	41.98%	23.30%	34.72%	+0.07	+7.2	2
1975-12-06	@ Portadown	L 2-3	50.0	1131	1121	34.72%	23.30%	41.98%	-0.07	-7.2	3
1975-12-13	Cliftonville	W 4-3	50.7	1124	1070	50.36%	23.12%	26.53%	+0.39	+5.6	5
1975-12-13	@ Ards	L 3-4	50.7	1070	1124	26.53%	23.12%	50.36%	-0.39	-5.6	4
1975-12-13	Bangor	D 1-1	54.2	1402	1254	60.37%	22.42%	17.21%	+0.87	-2.2	7
1975-12-13	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	54.2	1254	1402	17.21%	22.42%	60.37%	-0.87	+2.2	6
1975-12-13	Ballymena United	W 2-0	38.0	1270	1298	39.45%	23.30%	37.25%	-0.02	+16.0	8
1975-12-13	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	38.0	1298	1270	37.25%	23.30%	39.45%	+0.02	-16.0	3
1975-12-13	Linfield	L 0-5	27.9	1082	1329	15.17%	21.83%	62.99%	-1.12	-17.5	1
1975-12-13	@ Glenavon	W 5-0	27.9	1329	1082	62.99%	21.83%	15.17%	+1.12	+17.5	2
1975-12-13	Portadown	W 1-0	33.8	1310	1129	63.28%	22.05%	14.67%	+1.03	+3.9	6
1975-12-13	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	33.8	1129	1310	14.67%	22.05%	63.28%	-1.03	-3.9	2
1975-12-13	Lisburn Distillery	W 5-3	42.0	1206	1021	63.60%	22.01%	14.40%	+1.05	+5.2	4
1975-12-13	@ Larne	L 3-5	42.0	1021	1206	14.40%	22.01%	63.60%	-1.05	-5.2	0
1975-12-20	Coleraine	W 5-1	43.9	1282	1400	27.47%	23.03%	49.50%	-0.48	+31.8	5
1975-12-20	@ Ballymena United	L 1-5	43.9	1400	1282	49.50%	23.03%	27.47%	+0.48	-31.8	7
1975-12-20	Crusaders	D 2-2	58.6	1256	1286	39.21%	23.30%	37.49%	-0.03	-0.1	7
1975-12-20	@ Bangor	D 2-2	58.6	1286	1256	37.49%	23.30%	39.21%	+0.03	+0.0	9
1975-12-20	Glentoran	L 2-4	40.1	1064	1313	14.98%	21.80%	63.22%	-1.14	-5.7	4
1975-12-20	@ Cliftonville	W 4-2	40.1	1313	1064	63.22%	21.80%	14.98%	+1.14	+5.7	8
1975-12-20	Ards	W 3-0	27.4	1346	1130	66.04%	21.61%	12.35%	+1.21	+9.0	4
1975-12-20	@ Linfield	L 0-3	27.4	1130	1346	12.35%	21.61%	66.04%	-1.21	-9.0	5
1975-12-20	Glenavon	D 1-1	52.6	1015	1064	36.44%	23.28%	40.28%	-0.13	+0.2	1
1975-12-20	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	52.6	1064	1015	40.28%	23.28%	36.44%	+0.13	-0.2	2
1975-12-20	Larne	D 1-1	52.7	1125	1211	31.43%	23.18%	45.39%	-0.31	+0.6	3
1975-12-20	@ Portadown	D 1-1	52.7	1211	1125	45.39%	23.18%	31.43%	+0.31	-0.6	5
1975-12-25	Bangor	L 1-2	42.0	1121	1256	25.44%	22.92%	51.64%	-0.56	-5.9	5
1975-12-25	@ Ards	W 2-1	42.0	1256	1121	51.64%	22.92%	25.44%	+0.56	+5.9	9
1975-12-25	Cliftonville	D 1-1	53.7	1368	1058	72.05%	20.18%	7.77%	+1.68	-3.4	8
1975-12-25	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	53.7	1058	1368	7.77%	20.18%	72.05%	-1.68	+3.4	5
1975-12-25	Portadown	W 2-1	47.0	1064	1125	34.77%	23.26%	41.97%	-0.19	+8.8	4
1975-12-25	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	47.0	1125	1064	41.97%	23.26%	34.77%	+0.19	-8.8	3
1975-12-26	Lisburn Distillery	D 2-2	58.8	1286	1016	69.73%	20.82%	9.45%	+1.48	-2.4	10
1975-12-26	@ Crusaders	D 2-2	58.8	1016	1286	9.45%	20.82%	69.73%	-1.48	+2.4	2
1975-12-26	Linfield	W 2-1	47.4	1319	1355	38.32%	23.30%	38.38%	-0.06	+8.2	10
1975-12-26	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	47.4	1355	1319	38.38%	23.30%	38.32%	+0.06	-8.2	4
1975-12-26	Ballymena United	L 0-1	38.7	1210	1314	29.22%	23.11%	47.67%	-0.40	-7.0	5
1975-12-26	@ Larne	W 1-0	38.7	1314	1210	47.67%	23.11%	29.22%	+0.40	+7.0	7
1975-12-27	Portadown	D 1-1	53.3	1321	1117	65.12%	21.77%	13.11%	+1.15	-2.7	8
1975-12-27	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	53.3	1117	1321	13.11%	21.77%	65.12%	-1.15	+2.7	4
1975-12-27	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	34.2	1262	1018	68.02%	21.22%	10.76%	+1.35	+4.7	11
1975-12-27	@ Bangor	L 1-3	34.2	1018	1262	10.76%	21.22%	68.02%	-1.35	-4.7	2
1975-12-27	Linfield	L 1-5	30.9	1062	1347	12.60%	21.32%	66.09%	-1.32	-9.9	5
1975-12-27	@ Cliftonville	W 5-1	30.9	1347	1062	66.09%	21.32%	12.60%	+1.32	+9.9	6
1975-12-27	Ards	D 1-1	53.1	1284	1115	62.23%	22.20%	15.57%	+0.97	-2.4	11
1975-12-27	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	53.1	1115	1284	15.57%	22.20%	62.23%	-0.97	+2.4	6
1975-12-27	Coleraine	L 0-1	32.8	1073	1365	12.19%	21.22%	66.59%	-1.35	-3.2	4
1975-12-27	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	32.8	1365	1073	66.59%	21.22%	12.19%	+1.35	+3.2	10
1975-12-27	Larne	D 1-1	53.3	1327	1203	58.09%	22.64%	19.27%	+0.75	-1.9	11
1975-12-27	@ Glentoran	D 1-1	53.3	1203	1327	19.27%	22.64%	58.09%	-0.75	+1.9	6
1976-01-01	Glentoran	L 0-3	29.3	1117	1325	18.23%	22.28%	59.49%	-0.93	-12.8	6
1976-01-01	@ Ards	W 3-0	29.3	1325	1117	59.49%	22.28%	18.23%	+0.93	+12.8	13
1976-01-01	Crusaders	W 3-1	39.6	1368	1281	54.13%	22.93%	22.94%	+0.56	+9.3	12
1976-01-01	@ Coleraine	L 1-3	39.6	1281	1368	22.94%	22.93%	54.13%	-0.56	-9.3	11
1976-01-01	Glenavon	W 3-2	44.9	1205	1070	59.18%	22.54%	18.28%	+0.80	+4.2	8
1976-01-01	@ Larne	L 2-3	44.9	1070	1205	18.28%	22.54%	59.18%	-0.80	-4.2	4
1976-01-01	Bangor	W 3-0	31.6	1357	1267	54.49%	22.91%	22.60%	+0.57	+15.5	8
1976-01-01	@ Linfield	L 0-3	31.6	1267	1357	22.60%	22.91%	54.49%	-0.57	-15.5	11
1976-01-01	Ballymena United	L 1-3	34.4	1013	1318	11.44%	21.02%	67.54%	-1.42	-4.9	2
1976-01-01	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	34.4	1318	1013	67.54%	21.02%	11.44%	+1.42	+4.9	10
1976-01-01	Cliftonville	L 2-3	55.1	1119	1052	51.91%	23.05%	25.04%	+0.46	-10.0	4
1976-01-01	@ Portadown	W 3-2	55.1	1052	1119	25.04%	23.05%	51.91%	-0.46	+10.0	7
1976-01-03	Cliftonville	W 1-0	31.9	1323	1062	69.14%	20.97%	9.90%	+1.44	+2.7	12
1976-01-03	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	31.9	1062	1323	9.90%	20.97%	69.14%	-1.44	-2.7	7
1976-01-03	Portadown	W 3-1	36.7	1251	1109	59.82%	22.47%	17.70%	+0.84	+7.5	13
1976-01-03	@ Bangor	L 1-3	36.7	1109	1251	17.70%	22.47%	59.82%	-0.84	-7.5	4
1976-01-03	Glentoran	D 2-2	59.0	1272	1338	34.05%	23.25%	42.70%	-0.21	+0.3	12
1976-01-03	@ Crusaders	D 2-2	59.0	1338	1272	42.70%	23.25%	34.05%	+0.21	-0.3	14
1976-01-03	Ards	L 1-3	42.9	1066	1104	37.88%	23.30%	38.82%	-0.08	-14.0	4
1976-01-03	@ Glenavon	W 3-1	42.9	1104	1066	38.82%	23.30%	37.88%	+0.08	+14.0	8
1976-01-03	Coleraine	L 1-2	41.6	1209	1377	21.98%	22.67%	55.35%	-0.73	-5.2	8
1976-01-03	@ Larne	W 2-1	41.6	1377	1209	55.35%	22.67%	21.98%	+0.73	+5.2	14
1976-01-03	Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	54.0	1372	1008	74.86%	19.21%	5.93%	+1.95	-3.7	9
1976-01-03	@ Linfield	D 1-1	54.0	1008	1372	5.93%	19.21%	74.86%	-1.95	+3.7	3
1976-01-10	Coleraine	W 3-1	50.8	1118	1382	13.95%	21.61%	64.44%	-1.21	+22.3	10
1976-01-10	@ Ards	L 1-3	50.8	1382	1118	64.44%	21.61%	13.95%	+1.21	-22.3	14
1976-01-10	Bangor	W 4-1	37.3	1326	1259	51.85%	23.05%	25.09%	+0.46	+14.3	14
1976-01-10	@ Ballymena United	L 1-4	37.3	1259	1326	25.09%	23.05%	51.85%	-0.46	-14.3	13
1976-01-10	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	42.5	1059	1012	49.50%	23.15%	27.35%	+0.36	+6.2	9
1976-01-10	@ Cliftonville	L 1-2	42.5	1012	1059	27.35%	23.15%	49.50%	-0.36	-6.2	3
1976-01-10	Larne	D 1-1	53.0	1272	1204	52.00%	23.04%	24.95%	+0.46	-1.3	13
1976-01-10	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	53.0	1204	1272	24.95%	23.04%	52.00%	-0.46	+1.3	9
1976-01-10	Glenavon	W 2-0	28.1	1338	1052	70.70%	20.57%	8.73%	+1.56	+4.4	16
1976-01-10	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	28.1	1052	1338	8.73%	20.57%	70.70%	-1.56	-4.4	4
1976-01-10	Linfield	L 1-2	38.3	1102	1369	13.77%	21.57%	64.66%	-1.23	-3.4	4
1976-01-10	@ Portadown	W 2-1	38.3	1369	1102	64.66%	21.57%	13.77%	+1.23	+3.4	11
1976-01-17	Cliftonville	W 2-1	38.5	1245	1065	63.11%	22.08%	14.81%	+1.02	+3.7	15
1976-01-17	@ Bangor	L 1-2	38.5	1065	1245	14.81%	22.08%	63.11%	-1.02	-3.7	9
1976-01-17	Glentoran	L 0-1	45.1	1360	1342	45.73%	23.25%	31.02%	+0.21	-10.0	14
1976-01-17	@ Coleraine	W 1-0	45.1	1342	1360	31.02%	23.25%	45.73%	-0.21	+10.0	18
1976-01-17	Crusaders	L 1-5	32.3	1047	1271	16.93%	22.11%	60.96%	-1.01	-13.1	4
1976-01-17	@ Glenavon	W 5-1	32.3	1271	1047	60.96%	22.11%	16.93%	+1.01	+13.0	15
1976-01-17	Ards	W 3-0	31.5	1205	1141	51.61%	23.06%	25.33%	+0.45	+17.0	11
1976-01-17	@ Larne	L 0-3	31.5	1141	1205	25.33%	23.06%	51.61%	-0.45	-17.0	10
1976-01-17	Ballymena United	W 2-1	45.1	1372	1340	47.59%	23.21%	29.20%	+0.28	+6.6	13
1976-01-17	@ Linfield	L 1-2	45.1	1340	1372	29.20%	23.21%	47.59%	-0.28	-6.6	14
1976-01-17	Portadown	W 2-0	39.9	1006	1098	30.58%	23.16%	46.26%	-0.35	+19.0	5
1976-01-17	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 0-2	39.9	1098	1006	46.26%	23.16%	30.58%	+0.35	-19.0	4
1976-01-24	Lisburn Distillery	L 1-2	50.9	1124	1025	55.48%	22.84%	21.68%	+0.62	-11.2	10
1976-01-24	@ Ards	W 2-1	50.9	1025	1124	21.68%	22.84%	55.48%	-0.62	+11.2	7
1976-01-24	Portadown	W 7-2	30.6	1350	1079	69.75%	20.82%	9.43%	+1.49	+7.7	16
1976-01-24	@ Coleraine	L 2-7	30.6	1079	1350	9.43%	20.82%	69.75%	-1.49	-7.7	4
1976-01-24	Cliftonville	W 4-1	32.2	1284	1062	66.47%	21.53%	12.00%	+1.24	+7.4	17
1976-01-24	@ Crusaders	L 1-4	32.2	1062	1284	12.00%	21.53%	66.47%	-1.24	-7.4	9
1976-01-24	Ballymena United	W 5-2	43.2	1352	1333	45.89%	23.25%	30.86%	+0.22	+14.6	20
1976-01-24	@ Glentoran	L 2-5	43.2	1333	1352	30.86%	23.25%	45.89%	-0.22	-14.6	14
1976-01-24	Linfield	L 2-4	43.6	1222	1379	23.20%	22.77%	54.03%	-0.67	-8.4	11
1976-01-24	@ Larne	W 4-2	43.6	1379	1222	54.03%	22.77%	23.20%	+0.67	+8.4	15
1976-02-07	Ards	L 0-1	48.8	1319	1112	65.28%	21.74%	12.97%	+1.16	-13.9	14
1976-02-07	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	48.8	1112	1319	12.97%	21.74%	65.28%	-1.16	+13.9	12
1976-02-07	Larne	W 3-0	32.8	1248	1214	47.86%	23.20%	28.94%	+0.29	+19.0	17
1976-02-07	@ Bangor	L 0-3	32.8	1214	1248	28.94%	23.20%	47.86%	-0.29	-19.0	11
1976-02-07	Glenavon	D 1-1	52.6	1054	1034	46.06%	23.24%	30.70%	+0.22	-0.7	10
1976-02-07	@ Cliftonville	D 1-1	52.6	1034	1054	30.70%	23.24%	46.06%	-0.22	+0.7	5
1976-02-07	Coleraine	D 2-2	60.6	1387	1358	47.20%	23.22%	29.59%	+0.27	-0.6	16
1976-02-07	@ Linfield	D 2-2	60.6	1358	1387	29.59%	23.22%	47.20%	-0.27	+0.6	17
1976-02-07	Glentoran	L 0-5	26.0	1036	1367	10.05%	20.61%	69.34%	-1.55	-11.8	7
1976-02-07	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 5-0	26.0	1367	1036	69.34%	20.61%	10.05%	+1.55	+11.8	22
1976-02-07	Crusaders	L 1-2	39.3	1072	1291	17.27%	22.16%	60.58%	-0.99	-4.2	4
1976-02-07	@ Portadown	W 2-1	39.3	1291	1072	60.58%	22.16%	17.27%	+0.99	+4.2	19
1976-02-14	Portadown	L 2-4	51.1	1126	1067	50.91%	23.09%	26.00%	+0.42	-16.0	12
1976-02-14	@ Ards	W 4-2	51.1	1067	1126	26.00%	23.09%	50.91%	-0.42	+16.0	6
1976-02-14	Lisburn Distillery	W 1-0	30.6	1359	1024	73.39%	19.75%	6.87%	+1.81	+1.8	19
1976-02-14	@ Coleraine	L 0-1	30.6	1024	1359	6.87%	19.75%	73.39%	-1.81	-1.8	7
1976-02-14	Linfield	W 3-2	55.0	1296	1386	30.82%	23.16%	46.02%	-0.34	+9.0	21
1976-02-14	@ Crusaders	L 2-3	55.0	1386	1296	46.02%	23.16%	30.82%	+0.34	-9.0	16
1976-02-14	Ballymena United	D 1-1	53.2	1035	1305	13.55%	21.53%	64.92%	-1.24	+2.6	6
1976-02-14	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	53.2	1305	1035	64.92%	21.53%	13.55%	+1.24	-2.6	15
1976-02-14	Bangor	W 3-0	31.1	1379	1267	56.80%	22.75%	20.46%	+0.68	+14.2	24
1976-02-14	@ Glentoran	L 0-3	31.1	1267	1379	20.46%	22.75%	56.80%	-0.68	-14.2	17
1976-02-14	Cliftonville	L 1-4	46.7	1195	1054	59.75%	22.48%	17.77%	+0.83	-29.4	11
1976-02-14	@ Larne	W 4-1	46.7	1054	1195	17.77%	22.48%	59.75%	-0.83	+29.4	12
1976-02-21	Bangor	L 0-1	34.5	1037	1253	17.61%	22.20%	60.19%	-0.97	-4.5	6
1976-02-21	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	34.5	1253	1037	60.19%	22.20%	17.61%	+0.97	+4.5	19
1976-02-21	Lisburn Distillery	W 5-0	31.3	1083	1022	51.20%	23.08%	25.72%	+0.43	+27.8	8
1976-02-21	@ Portadown	L 0-5	31.3	1022	1083	25.72%	23.08%	51.20%	-0.43	-27.8	7
1976-02-28	Coleraine	W 1-0	44.7	1258	1360	29.30%	23.11%	47.59%	-0.40	+10.3	21
1976-02-28	@ Bangor	L 0-1	44.7	1360	1258	47.59%	23.11%	29.30%	+0.40	-10.3	19
1976-02-28	Ards	D 2-2	58.0	1083	1110	39.54%	23.30%	37.16%	-0.02	-0.1	13
1976-02-28	@ Cliftonville	D 2-2	58.0	1110	1083	37.16%	23.30%	39.54%	+0.02	+0.1	13
1976-02-28	Glenavon	D 0-0	50.0	1377	1033	73.90%	19.57%	6.53%	+1.86	-4.0	17
1976-02-28	@ Linfield	D 0-0	50.0	1033	1377	6.53%	19.57%	73.90%	-1.86	+4.0	7
1976-02-28	Larne	L 1-2	40.7	994	1166	21.65%	22.64%	55.70%	-0.74	-5.1	7
1976-02-28	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	40.7	1166	994	55.70%	22.64%	21.65%	+0.74	+5.1	13
1976-02-28	Glentoran	L 0-2	29.8	1111	1393	12.81%	21.36%	65.83%	-1.30	-6.4	8
1976-02-28	@ Portadown	W 2-0	29.8	1393	1111	65.83%	21.36%	12.81%	+1.30	+6.4	26
1976-03-06	Linfield	L 1-3	35.6	1110	1373	14.02%	21.62%	64.36%	-1.21	-6.0	13
1976-03-06	@ Ards	W 3-1	35.6	1373	1110	64.36%	21.62%	14.02%	+1.21	+6.0	19
1976-03-06	Ballymena United	W 4-2	45.3	1350	1302	49.58%	23.14%	27.28%	+0.36	+9.7	21
1976-03-06	@ Coleraine	L 2-4	45.3	1302	1350	27.28%	23.14%	49.58%	-0.36	-9.7	15
1976-03-06	Bangor	W 1-0	38.8	1304	1268	48.17%	23.19%	28.64%	+0.30	+6.9	23
1976-03-06	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	38.8	1268	1304	28.64%	23.19%	48.17%	-0.30	-6.9	21
1976-03-06	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	39.6	1037	989	49.54%	23.15%	27.32%	+0.36	+10.8	9
1976-03-06	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	39.6	989	1037	27.32%	23.15%	49.54%	-0.36	-10.8	7
1976-03-06	Cliftonville	W 4-1	30.7	1399	1083	72.41%	20.07%	7.52%	+1.71	+4.7	28
1976-03-06	@ Glentoran	L 1-4	30.7	1083	1399	7.52%	20.07%	72.41%	-1.71	-4.7	13
1976-03-06	Portadown	L 0-1	45.0	1171	1105	51.75%	23.06%	25.20%	+0.45	-11.1	13
1976-03-06	@ Larne	W 1-0	45.0	1105	1171	25.20%	23.06%	51.75%	-0.45	+11.1	10
1976-03-13	Crusaders	L 2-3	52.7	1293	1311	40.73%	23.30%	35.97%	+0.02	-8.1	15
1976-03-13	@ Ballymena United	W 3-2	52.7	1311	1293	35.97%	23.30%	40.73%	-0.02	+8.1	25
1976-03-20	Larne	W 3-2	45.4	1284	1160	58.14%	22.63%	19.22%	+0.75	+4.4	17
1976-03-20	@ Ballymena United	L 2-3	45.4	1160	1284	19.22%	22.63%	58.14%	-0.75	-4.4	13
1976-03-20	Ards	D 0-0	49.1	1261	1104	61.15%	22.33%	16.52%	+0.91	-2.5	22
1976-03-20	@ Bangor	D 0-0	49.1	1104	1261	16.52%	22.33%	61.15%	-0.91	+2.5	14
1976-03-20	Coleraine	L 0-1	33.0	1078	1360	12.82%	21.37%	65.81%	-1.30	-3.4	13
1976-03-20	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	33.0	1360	1078	65.81%	21.37%	12.82%	+1.30	+3.4	23
1976-03-20	Glentoran	L 1-2	49.6	1379	1404	39.93%	23.30%	36.77%	+0.00	-8.4	19
1976-03-20	@ Linfield	W 2-1	49.6	1404	1379	36.77%	23.30%	39.93%	+0.00	+8.4	30
1976-03-20	Crusaders	L 0-7	27.4	978	1319	9.57%	20.45%	69.98%	-1.60	-15.4	7
1976-03-20	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 7-0	27.4	1319	978	69.98%	20.45%	9.57%	+1.60	+15.4	27
1976-03-20	Glenavon	L 0-1	45.0	1116	1048	52.03%	23.04%	24.93%	+0.46	-11.2	10
1976-03-20	@ Portadown	W 1-0	45.0	1048	1116	24.93%	23.04%	52.03%	-0.46	+11.2	11
1976-03-27	Crusaders	L 0-3	28.7	1107	1335	16.60%	22.06%	61.34%	-1.03	-11.8	14
1976-03-27	@ Ards	W 3-0	28.7	1335	1107	61.34%	22.06%	16.60%	+1.03	+11.8	29
1976-03-27	Glenavon	W 2-1	36.1	1363	1059	71.74%	20.27%	7.98%	+1.65	+2.0	25
1976-03-27	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	36.1	1059	1363	7.98%	20.27%	71.74%	-1.65	-2.0	11
1976-03-27	Glentoran	W 2-1	53.8	1155	1412	14.43%	21.70%	63.87%	-1.18	+12.8	15
1976-03-27	@ Larne	L 1-2	53.8	1412	1155	63.87%	21.70%	14.43%	+1.18	-12.8	30
1976-03-27	Cliftonville	W 2-0	28.0	1371	1075	71.27%	20.41%	8.32%	+1.61	+4.2	21
1976-03-27	@ Linfield	L 0-2	28.0	1075	1371	8.32%	20.41%	71.27%	-1.61	-4.2	13
1976-03-27	Bangor	D 1-1	53.2	963	1258	11.98%	21.16%	66.86%	-1.37	+2.8	8
1976-03-27	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	53.2	1258	963	66.86%	21.16%	11.98%	+1.37	-2.8	23
1976-03-27	Ballymena United	W 3-1	48.6	1105	1289	20.42%	22.53%	57.06%	-0.81	+19.8	12
1976-03-27	@ Portadown	L 1-3	48.6	1289	1105	57.06%	22.53%	20.42%	+0.81	-19.8	17
1976-04-03	Lisburn Distillery	W 1-0	31.0	1269	966	71.68%	20.29%	8.03%	+1.65	+2.2	19
1976-04-03	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	31.0	966	1269	8.03%	20.29%	71.68%	-1.65	-2.2	8
1976-04-03	Linfield	L 0-2	35.3	1256	1375	27.27%	23.02%	49.71%	-0.48	-12.4	23
1976-04-03	@ Bangor	W 2-0	35.3	1375	1256	49.71%	23.02%	27.27%	+0.48	+12.5	23
1976-04-03	Portadown	L 2-4	46.6	1071	1125	35.76%	23.27%	40.96%	-0.15	-12.0	13
1976-04-03	@ Cliftonville	W 4-2	46.6	1125	1071	40.96%	23.27%	35.76%	+0.15	+12.0	14
1976-04-03	Coleraine	D 0-0	50.7	1347	1365	40.78%	23.30%	35.92%	+0.03	-0.2	30
1976-04-03	@ Crusaders	D 0-0	50.7	1365	1347	35.92%	23.30%	40.78%	-0.03	+0.2	26
1976-04-03	Larne	W 4-1	43.6	1057	1168	28.28%	23.07%	48.65%	-0.44	+24.3	13
1976-04-03	@ Glenavon	L 1-4	43.6	1168	1057	48.65%	23.07%	28.28%	+0.44	-24.3	15
1976-04-03	Ards	L 2-3	60.6	1400	1095	71.75%	20.27%	7.98%	+1.65	-13.6	30
1976-04-03	@ Glentoran	W 3-2	60.6	1095	1400	7.98%	20.27%	71.75%	-1.65	+13.6	16
1976-04-13	Portadown	D 1-1	53.7	1388	1137	68.48%	21.12%	10.40%	+1.39	-3.0	24
1976-04-13	@ Linfield	D 1-1	53.7	1137	1388	10.40%	21.12%	68.48%	-1.39	+3.0	15
1976-04-17	Glenavon	D 2-2	58.0	1109	1081	47.01%	23.22%	29.77%	+0.26	-0.6	17
1976-04-17	@ Ards	D 2-2	58.0	1081	1109	29.77%	23.22%	47.01%	-0.26	+0.6	14
1976-04-17	Ballymena United	W 2-0	43.8	1059	1271	17.87%	22.24%	59.89%	-0.95	+24.0	15
1976-04-17	@ Cliftonville	L 0-2	43.8	1271	1059	59.89%	22.24%	17.87%	+0.95	-24.0	19
1976-04-17	Larne	W 2-1	37.9	1365	1144	66.44%	21.54%	12.03%	+1.24	+3.0	28
1976-04-17	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	37.9	1144	1365	12.03%	21.54%	66.44%	-1.24	-3.0	15
1976-04-17	Crusaders	L 0-1	46.3	1386	1346	48.54%	23.18%	28.28%	+0.32	-10.5	30
1976-04-17	@ Glentoran	W 1-0	46.3	1346	1386	28.28%	23.18%	48.54%	-0.32	+10.5	32
1976-04-17	Linfield	L 0-1	30.2	964	1385	6.44%	19.04%	74.52%	-2.00	-1.7	8
1976-04-17	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 1-0	30.2	1385	964	74.52%	19.04%	6.44%	+2.00	+1.7	26
1976-04-17	Bangor	W 1-0	43.9	1140	1243	29.22%	23.11%	47.67%	-0.40	+10.3	17
1976-04-17	@ Portadown	L 0-1	43.9	1243	1140	47.67%	23.11%	29.22%	+0.40	-10.3	23
1976-04-19	Ards	W 3-0	26.5	1368	1108	69.09%	20.98%	9.93%	+1.43	+7.3	30
1976-04-19	@ Coleraine	L 0-3	26.5	1108	1368	9.93%	20.98%	69.09%	-1.43	-7.3	17
1976-04-19	Glentoran	D 1-1	53.5	1082	1376	12.07%	21.19%	66.75%	-1.36	+2.8	15
1976-04-19	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	53.5	1376	1082	66.75%	21.19%	12.07%	+1.36	-2.8	31
1976-04-19	Crusaders	L 0-2	31.4	1141	1357	17.56%	22.20%	60.25%	-0.97	-8.5	15
1976-04-19	@ Larne	W 2-0	31.4	1357	1141	60.25%	22.20%	17.56%	+0.97	+8.5	34
1976-04-19	Cliftonville	W 5-2	47.1	962	1083	27.15%	23.01%	49.84%	-0.49	+21.5	10
1976-04-19	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 2-5	47.1	1083	962	49.84%	23.01%	27.15%	+0.49	-21.5	15
1976-04-20	Ballymena United	D 1-1	52.9	1233	1247	41.36%	23.30%	35.34%	+0.05	-0.3	24
1976-04-20	@ Bangor	D 1-1	52.9	1247	1233	35.34%	23.30%	41.36%	-0.05	+0.3	20
1976-04-24	Larne	W 3-1	42.9	1101	1132	38.95%	23.30%	37.75%	-0.04	+14.0	19
1976-04-24	@ Ards	L 1-3	42.9	1132	1101	37.75%	23.30%	38.95%	+0.04	-14.0	15
1976-04-24	Linfield	D 1-1	53.9	1247	1386	25.06%	22.90%	52.04%	-0.58	+1.3	21
1976-04-24	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	53.9	1386	1247	52.04%	22.90%	25.06%	+0.58	-1.3	27
1976-04-24	Bangor	D 0-0	49.0	1061	1233	21.65%	22.64%	55.71%	-0.74	+1.9	16
1976-04-24	@ Cliftonville	D 0-0	49.0	1233	1061	55.71%	22.64%	21.65%	+0.74	-1.9	25
1976-04-24	Glenavon	W 4-0	25.3	1365	1085	70.38%	20.66%	8.97%	+1.54	+8.6	36
1976-04-24	@ Crusaders	L 0-4	25.3	1085	1365	8.97%	20.66%	70.38%	-1.54	-8.6	15
1976-04-24	Coleraine	D 2-2	60.6	1373	1376	42.93%	23.29%	33.78%	+0.10	-0.3	32
1976-04-24	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	60.6	1376	1373	33.78%	23.29%	42.93%	-0.10	+0.3	31

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1976-04-03	7.98%	Ards	1095	3	@ Glentoran	1400	2
2	1976-02-07	12.97%	Ards	1112	1	@ Ballymena United	1319	0
3	1976-01-10	13.95%	@ Ards	1118	3	Coleraine	1382	1
4	1976-03-27	14.43%	@ Larne	1155	2	Glentoran	1412	1
5	1975-11-22	16.44%	Larne	1214	3	@ Linfield	1372	2
6	1976-02-14	17.77%	Cliftonville	1054	4	@ Larne	1195	1
7	1976-04-17	17.87%	@ Cliftonville	1059	2	Ballymena United	1271	0
8	1976-03-27	20.42%	@ Portadown	1105	3	Ballymena United	1289	1
9	1976-01-24	21.68%	Lisburn Distillery	1025	2	@ Ards	1124	1
10	1975-11-29	21.93%	Cliftonville	1026	3	@ Glenavon	1122	0
11	1975-12-06	22.90%	@ Cliftonville	1058	1	Larne	1217	0
12	1975-12-06	23.49%	Crusaders	1258	1	@ Linfield	1340	0
13	1976-03-20	24.93%	Glenavon	1048	1	@ Portadown	1116	0
14	1976-01-01	25.04%	Cliftonville	1052	3	@ Portadown	1119	2
15	1976-03-06	25.20%	Portadown	1105	1	@ Larne	1171	0
16	1976-02-14	26.00%	Portadown	1067	4	@ Ards	1126	2
17	1976-04-19	27.15%	@ Lisburn Distillery	962	5	Cliftonville	1083	2
18	1975-12-20	27.47%	@ Ballymena United	1282	5	Coleraine	1400	1
19	1976-04-03	28.28%	@ Glenavon	1057	4	Larne	1168	1
20	1976-04-17	28.28%	Crusaders	1346	1	@ Glentoran	1386	0
21	1976-04-17	29.22%	@ Portadown	1140	1	Bangor	1243	0
22	1976-02-28	29.30%	@ Bangor	1258	1	Coleraine	1360	0
23	1975-12-06	30.48%	@ Bangor	1235	2	Glentoran	1329	0
24	1976-01-17	30.58%	@ Lisburn Distillery	1006	2	Portadown	1098	0
25	1976-02-14	30.82%	@ Crusaders	1296	3	Linfield	1386	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1975-11-29	32.30	Cliftonville	3	1026	21.93%	@ Glenavon	0	1122	55.21%	22.86%
2	1975-12-20	31.81	@ Ballymena United	5	1282	27.47%	Coleraine	1	1400	49.50%	23.03%
3	1976-02-14	29.37	Cliftonville	4	1054	17.77%	@ Larne	1	1195	59.75%	22.48%
4	1976-02-21	27.79	@ Portadown	5	1083	51.20%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1022	25.72%	23.08%
5	1976-04-03	24.27	@ Glenavon	4	1057	28.28%	Larne	1	1168	48.65%	23.07%
6	1976-04-17	23.97	@ Cliftonville	2	1059	17.87%	Ballymena United	0	1271	59.89%	22.24%
7	1976-01-10	22.28	@ Ards	3	1118	13.95%	Coleraine	1	1382	64.44%	21.61%
8	1976-04-19	21.47	@ Lisburn Distillery	5	962	27.15%	Cliftonville	2	1083	49.84%	23.01%
9	1975-11-29	19.92	@ Coleraine	3	1380	46.06%	Linfield	0	1360	30.69%	23.24%
10	1976-03-27	19.83	@ Portadown	3	1105	20.42%	Ballymena United	1	1289	57.06%	22.53%
11	1975-12-06	19.01	@ Bangor	2	1235	30.48%	Glentoran	0	1329	46.37%	23.15%
12	1976-02-07	19.00	@ Bangor	3	1248	47.86%	Larne	0	1214	28.94%	23.20%
13	1976-01-17	18.98	@ Lisburn Distillery	2	1006	30.58%	Portadown	0	1098	46.26%	23.16%
14	1975-12-13	17.46	Linfield	5	1329	62.99%	@ Glenavon	0	1082	15.17%	21.83%
15	1976-01-17	17.04	@ Larne	3	1205	51.61%	Ards	0	1141	25.33%	23.06%
16	1976-02-14	15.99	Portadown	4	1067	26.00%	@ Ards	2	1126	50.91%	23.09%
17	1975-12-13	15.96	@ Crusaders	2	1270	39.45%	Ballymena United	0	1298	37.25%	23.30%
18	1976-01-01	15.49	@ Linfield	3	1357	54.49%	Bangor	0	1267	22.60%	22.91%
19	1976-03-20	15.42	Crusaders	7	1319	69.98%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	978	9.57%	20.45%
20	1975-11-22	14.63	Ards	2	1115	43.45%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	1043	33.32%	23.23%
21	1976-01-24	14.61	@ Glentoran	5	1352	45.89%	Ballymena United	2	1333	30.86%	23.25%
22	1976-01-10	14.26	@ Ballymena United	4	1326	51.85%	Bangor	1	1259	25.09%	23.05%
23	1976-02-14	14.22	@ Glentoran	3	1379	56.80%	Bangor	0	1267	20.46%	22.75%
24	1976-01-03	14.00	Ards	3	1104	38.82%	@ Glenavon	1	1066	37.88%	23.30%
25	1976-04-24	13.96	@ Ards	3	1101	38.95%	Larne	1	1132	37.75%	23.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1976-02-07	60.6	@ Linfield	2	1387	47.20%	Coleraine	2	1358	29.59%	23.22%
2	1976-04-03	60.6	Ards	3	1095	7.98%	@ Glentoran	2	1400	71.75%	20.27%
3	1976-04-24	60.6	@ Glentoran	2	1373	42.93%	Coleraine	2	1376	33.78%	23.29%
4	1976-01-03	59.0	@ Crusaders	2	1272	34.05%	Glentoran	2	1338	42.70%	23.25%
5	1975-12-26	58.8	@ Crusaders	2	1286	69.73%	Lisburn Distillery	2	1016	9.45%	20.82%
6	1975-12-20	58.6	@ Bangor	2	1256	39.21%	Crusaders	2	1286	37.49%	23.30%
7	1975-11-22	58.5	Larne	3	1214	16.44%	@ Linfield	2	1372	61.24%	22.32%
8	1975-11-22	58.3	@ Bangor	2	1228	56.31%	Glenavon	2	1121	20.90%	22.78%
9	1976-02-28	58.0	@ Cliftonville	2	1083	39.54%	Ards	2	1110	37.16%	23.30%
10	1976-04-17	58.0	@ Ards	2	1109	47.01%	Glenavon	2	1081	29.77%	23.22%
11	1976-01-01	55.1	Cliftonville	3	1052	25.04%	@ Portadown	2	1119	51.91%	23.05%
12	1976-02-14	55.0	@ Crusaders	3	1296	30.82%	Linfield	2	1386	46.02%	23.16%
13	1975-12-13	54.2	@ Coleraine	1	1402	60.37%	Bangor	1	1254	17.21%	22.42%
14	1976-01-03	54.0	@ Linfield	1	1372	74.86%	Lisburn Distillery	1	1008	5.93%	19.21%
15	1976-04-24	53.9	@ Ballymena United	1	1247	25.06%	Linfield	1	1386	52.04%	22.90%
16	1976-03-27	53.8	@ Larne	2	1155	14.43%	Glentoran	1	1412	63.87%	21.70%
17	1975-12-25	53.7	@ Coleraine	1	1368	72.05%	Cliftonville	1	1058	7.77%	20.18%
18	1976-04-13	53.7	@ Linfield	1	1388	68.48%	Portadown	1	1137	10.40%	21.12%
19	1976-04-19	53.5	@ Glenavon	1	1082	12.07%	Glentoran	1	1376	66.75%	21.19%
20	1975-12-27	53.3	@ Ballymena United	1	1321	65.12%	Portadown	1	1117	13.11%	21.77%
21	1975-12-27	53.3	@ Glentoran	1	1327	58.09%	Larne	1	1203	19.27%	22.64%
22	1976-02-14	53.2	@ Glenavon	1	1035	13.55%	Ballymena United	1	1305	64.92%	21.53%
23	1976-03-27	53.2	@ Lisburn Distillery	1	963	11.98%	Bangor	1	1258	66.86%	21.16%
24	1975-12-27	53.1	@ Crusaders	1	1284	62.23%	Ards	1	1115	15.57%	22.20%
25	1975-11-29	53.0	@ Ards	1	1130	22.64%	Ballymena United	1	1291	54.63%	22.73%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1976-04-24	25.3	@ Crusaders	4	1365	70.38%	Glenavon	0	1085	8.97%	20.66%
2	1975-11-29	25.6	@ Glentoran	3	1322	71.14%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1029	8.41%	20.45%
3	1976-02-07	26.0	Glentoran	5	1367	69.34%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	1036	10.05%	20.61%
4	1976-04-19	26.5	@ Coleraine	3	1368	69.09%	Ards	0	1108	9.93%	20.98%
5	1975-12-20	27.4	@ Linfield	3	1346	66.04%	Ards	0	1130	12.35%	21.61%
6	1976-03-20	27.4	Crusaders	7	1319	69.98%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	978	9.57%	20.45%
7	1975-12-13	27.9	Linfield	5	1329	62.99%	@ Glenavon	0	1082	15.17%	21.83%
8	1976-03-27	28.0	@ Linfield	2	1371	71.27%	Cliftonville	0	1075	8.32%	20.41%
9	1976-01-10	28.1	@ Glentoran	2	1338	70.70%	Glenavon	0	1052	8.73%	20.57%
10	1976-03-27	28.7	Crusaders	3	1335	61.34%	@ Ards	0	1107	16.60%	22.06%
11	1976-01-01	29.3	Glentoran	3	1325	59.49%	@ Ards	0	1117	18.23%	22.28%
12	1976-02-28	29.8	Glentoran	2	1393	65.83%	@ Portadown	0	1111	12.81%	21.36%
13	1976-04-17	30.2	Linfield	1	1385	74.52%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	964	6.44%	19.04%
14	1976-01-24	30.6	@ Coleraine	7	1350	69.75%	Portadown	2	1079	9.43%	20.82%
15	1976-02-14	30.6	@ Coleraine	1	1359	73.39%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1024	6.87%	19.75%
16	1976-03-06	30.7	@ Glentoran	4	1399	72.41%	Cliftonville	1	1083	7.52%	20.07%
17	1975-12-27	30.9	Linfield	5	1347	66.09%	@ Cliftonville	1	1062	12.60%	21.32%
18	1976-04-03	31.0	@ Ballymena United	1	1269	71.68%	Lisburn Distillery	0	966	8.03%	20.29%
19	1976-02-14	31.1	@ Glentoran	3	1379	56.80%	Bangor	0	1267	20.46%	22.75%
20	1975-11-22	31.2	Crusaders	2	1245	59.71%	@ Cliftonville	0	1035	18.03%	22.26%
21	1976-02-21	31.3	@ Portadown	5	1083	51.20%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1022	25.72%	23.08%
22	1976-04-19	31.4	Crusaders	2	1357	60.25%	@ Larne	0	1141	17.56%	22.20%
23	1976-01-17	31.5	@ Larne	3	1205	51.61%	Ards	0	1141	25.33%	23.06%
24	1976-01-01	31.6	@ Linfield	3	1357	54.49%	Bangor	0	1267	22.60%	22.91%
25	1976-01-03	31.9	@ Ballymena United	1	1323	69.14%	Cliftonville	0	1062	9.90%	20.97%