1976-77 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Glentoran

36 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Glenavon

6.82 points above expected

31 points · 24.18 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Ballymena United

5.49 points below expected

15 points · 20.49 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Glentoran	22	17	2	3	36	50	19	+31	30.37	+5.63
2	Glenavon	22	14	3	5	31	40	25	+15	24.18	+6.82
3	Linfield	22	12	4	6	28	39	21	+18	28.10	-0.10
4	Coleraine	22	12	3	7	27	40	29	+11	25.07	+1.93
5	Larne	22	12	3	7	27	42	33	+9	22.62	+4.38
6	Crusaders	22	9	5	8	23	39	33	+6	25.43	-2.43
7	Ards	22	10	1	11	21	34	39	-5	20.30	+0.70
8	Portadown	22	8	2	12	18	36	37	-1	20.44	-2.44
9	Ballymena United	22	5	5	12	15	20	34	-14	20.49	-5.49
10	Lisburn Distillery	22	5	5	12	15	25	44	-19	14.61	+0.39
11	Bangor	22	4	5	13	13	23	43	-20	17.70	-4.70
12	Cliftonville	22	4	2	16	10	20	51	-31	14.69	-4.69

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Glenavon	31	24.18	+6.82
2	Glentoran	36	30.37	+5.63
3	Larne	27	22.62	+4.38
4	Coleraine	27	25.07	+1.93
5	Ards	21	20.30	+0.70

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Ballymena United	15	20.49	-5.49
2	Bangor	13	17.70	-4.70
3	Cliftonville	10	14.69	-4.69
4	Portadown	18	20.44	-2.44
5	Crusaders	23	25.43	-2.43

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Glenavon	5	Nov 20 – Dec 18	1 in 136
2	Ards	5	Dec 4 – Dec 30	1 in 77
3	Glentoran	9	Jan 22 – Apr 9	1 in 43
4	Bangor	3	Apr 11 – Apr 30	1 in 24
5	Lisburn Distillery	2	Jan 15 – Jan 18	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Glenavon	2	Feb 12 – Feb 19	1 in 45
2	Bangor	4	Dec 25 – Jan 8	1 in 36
3	Cliftonville	5	Dec 27 – Jan 15	1 in 33
4	Ballymena United	4	Dec 4 – Dec 25	1 in 25
5	Ards	5	Apr 2 – Apr 30	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lisburn Distillery	5	Mar 26 – Apr 16	1 in 203
2	Glenavon	6	Nov 20 – Dec 25	1 in 33
3	Ballymena United	5	Dec 28 – Jan 22	1 in 17
4	Larne	4	Nov 20 – Dec 18	1 in 16
5	Ards	5	Dec 4 – Dec 30	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Bangor	17	Dec 4 – Apr 9	1 in 916
2	Ballymena United	6	Mar 19 – Apr 30	1 in 45
3	Cliftonville	7	Dec 27 – Jan 29	1 in 21
4	Portadown	5	Dec 4 – Dec 28	1 in 11
5	Linfield	2	Dec 11 – Dec 18	1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Glentoran	1451	36	-10	7	6.8	+0.2
Glenavon	1325	31	-7	4	5.6	-1.6
Linfield	1373	28	-17	6	7.8	-1.8
Coleraine	1371	27	+65	8	5.4	+2.6
Larne	1277	27	+38	6	3.9	+2.1
Crusaders	1285	23	-26	5	5.0	+0.0
Ards	1183	21	-61	0	3.4	-3.4
Portadown	1201	18	+17	6	5.2	+0.8
Lisburn Distillery	1086	15	+43	6	3.8	+2.2
Ballymena United	1106	15	-61	2	4.3	-2.3
Bangor	1108	13	+43	6	4.5	+1.5
Cliftonville	1018	10	-32	2	3.1	-1.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ARD	BU	BAN	CLI	COL	CRU	GLE	GLE	LAR	LIN	LD	POR
Ards	—	1-0-1 2.76	2-0-0 3.23	2-0-0 3.98	1-0-1 2.05	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-2 2.51	0-0-2 1.71	0-0-2 2.64	1-0-1 2.00	1-1-0 3.75	1-0-1 2.95
Ballymena United	1-0-1 2.92	—	0-1-1 3.41	1-0-1 3.76	0-0-2 2.05	0-0-2 2.31	1-0-1 2.54	0-0-2 1.91	1-0-1 2.38	0-2-0 1.51	1-1-0 3.44	0-1-1 2.83
Bangor	0-0-2 2.45	1-1-0 2.27	—	1-1-0 3.39	1-0-1 2.15	0-2-0 1.60	0-0-2 2.38	0-0-2 1.47	0-1-1 2.42	0-0-2 1.60	0-0-2 3.43	1-0-1 2.05
Cliftonville	0-0-2 1.70	1-0-1 1.92	0-1-1 2.29	—	0-1-1 1.41	0-0-2 1.50	1-0-1 2.08	0-0-2 0.90	1-0-1 1.86	1-0-1 1.10	0-0-2 2.89	0-0-2 2.16
Coleraine	1-0-1 3.63	2-0-0 3.64	1-0-1 3.53	1-1-0 4.27	—	2-0-0 2.78	1-0-1 2.99	0-1-1 2.34	1-0-1 3.14	0-0-2 2.50	1-1-0 4.12	2-0-0 3.51
Crusaders	1-0-1 3.35	2-0-0 3.37	0-2-0 4.08	2-0-0 4.18	0-0-2 2.90	—	0-1-1 2.65	1-0-1 1.93	1-0-1 3.32	0-1-1 2.45	1-1-0 4.33	1-0-1 3.63
Glenavon	2-0-0 3.17	1-0-1 3.14	2-0-0 3.30	1-0-1 3.61	1-0-1 2.69	1-1-0 3.03	—	1-0-1 2.20	0-1-1 3.37	2-0-0 2.02	2-0-0 4.33	1-1-0 3.68
Glentoran	2-0-0 3.98	2-0-0 3.77	2-0-0 4.21	2-0-0 4.80	1-1-0 3.34	1-0-1 3.75	1-0-1 3.49	—	1-1-0 3.87	1-0-1 3.35	2-0-0 4.33	2-0-0 3.94
Larne	2-0-0 3.04	1-0-1 3.29	1-1-0 3.26	1-0-1 3.82	1-0-1 2.54	1-0-1 2.36	1-1-0 2.31	0-1-1 1.82	—	1-0-1 1.84	1-0-1 4.09	2-0-0 2.84
Linfield	1-0-1 3.68	0-2-0 4.18	2-0-0 4.09	1-0-1 4.59	2-0-0 3.18	1-1-0 3.23	0-0-2 3.66	1-0-1 2.33	1-0-1 3.85	—	1-1-0 4.60	2-0-0 3.99
Lisburn Distillery	0-1-1 1.93	0-1-1 2.24	2-0-0 2.25	2-0-0 2.79	0-1-1 1.57	0-1-1 1.36	0-0-2 1.36	0-0-2 1.36	1-0-1 1.59	0-1-1 1.09	—	0-0-2 2.20
Portadown	1-0-1 2.73	1-1-0 2.85	1-0-1 3.63	2-0-0 3.52	0-0-2 2.18	1-0-1 2.05	0-1-1 2.00	0-0-2 1.74	0-0-2 2.84	0-0-2 1.69	2-0-0 3.49	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.88	+7.7
Allowed	0.84	-7.7
Differential	0.95	+4.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.06%	7.20%	6.82%	4.17%	0.76%	0.76%	25.76%
1	7.20%	6.82%	7.58%	4.17%	1.89%	0.76%	28.41%
2	6.82%	7.58%	1.52%	4.17%	2.27%	0.76%	23.11%
3	4.17%	4.17%	4.17%	0.76%	0.76%	0.38%	14.39%
4	0.76%	1.89%	2.27%	0.76%	—	—	5.68%
5+	0.76%	0.76%	0.76%	0.38%	—	—	2.65%
Total	25.76%	28.41%	23.11%	14.39%	5.68%	2.65%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.55	+0.00
SD	1.33	1.33	1.93
CV	0.86	0.86	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
2	9.09%	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	27.27%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.77	-0.23
SD	1.22	1.48	1.69
CV	0.79	0.83	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	40.91%
1	13.64%	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	31.82%	13.64%	13.64%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.91	1.55	-0.64
SD	1.02	1.41	1.65
CV	1.12	0.91	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	18.18%	13.64%	—	—	40.91%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
3	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	22.73%	36.36%	27.27%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.95	-0.91
SD	1.17	1.05	1.57
CV	1.12	0.53	—
Max	4	4	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
1	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	—	45.45%
2	—	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	27.27%	22.73%	18.18%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.91	2.32	-1.41
SD	0.75	1.59	1.71
CV	0.83	0.68	—
Max	2	6	+1
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
1	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
2	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	31.82%
3	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	22.73%	22.73%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	1.32	+0.50
SD	1.30	1.32	1.68
CV	0.71	1.00	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
1	—	13.64%	18.18%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	18.18%	27.27%	40.91%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	1.50	+0.27
SD	1.69	0.96	1.98
CV	0.95	0.64	—
Max	6	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	13.64%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	40.91%	18.18%	4.55%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	1.14	+0.68
SD	1.14	1.21	1.62
CV	0.63	1.06	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	13.64%	—	—	—	—	—	13.64%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	27.27%
4	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	45.45%	31.82%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.27	0.86	+1.41
SD	1.52	0.99	1.84
CV	0.67	1.15	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
1	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	9.09%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	22.73%	27.27%	18.18%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.50	+0.41
SD	1.38	1.22	1.84
CV	0.72	0.82	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
3	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	40.91%	31.82%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.77	0.95	+0.82
SD	1.60	1.00	2.04
CV	0.90	1.05	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	36.36%
1	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	22.73%	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	13.64%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	2.00	-0.86
SD	1.13	1.88	2.01
CV	0.99	0.94	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	—	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
2	—	18.18%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	31.82%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	13.64%	31.82%	31.82%	18.18%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.68	-0.05
SD	1.29	1.09	1.79
CV	0.79	0.65	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Glentoran	1451	36	30.37	+5.63	96.0%	23	24	27	31	33	36	38
Linfield	1373	28	28.10	-0.10	50.0%	18	21	25	28	31	34	37
Coleraine	1371	27	25.07	+1.93	69.0%	12	17	22	26	28	32	33
Glenavon	1325	31	24.18	+6.82	99.0%	17	18	21	25	26	29	33
Crusaders	1285	23	25.43	-2.43	30.0%	17	19	23	25	28	31	34
Larne	1277	27	22.62	+4.38	91.0%	14	16	20	23	25	29	32
Portadown	1201	18	20.44	-2.44	29.0%	13	14	18	20	22	27	30
Ards	1183	21	20.30	+0.70	58.0%	10	12	18	20	23	27	30
Bangor	1108	13	17.70	-4.70	11.0%	11	12	15	17	20	23	26
Ballymena United	1106	15	20.49	-5.49	9.0%	8	14	18	20	23	27	30
Lisburn Distillery	1086	15	14.61	+0.39	60.0%	8	9	12	14	16	22	25
Cliftonville	1018	10	14.69	-4.69	13.0%	8	9	12	14	17	21	24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+22.73%

Strong Edge

53.79%15.15%31.06%

Elo Value

Home Edge

188 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

080.37500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.45 goals

Neutral

-2+0.43+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.5

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

57%

Glentoran, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.23/gm

Comfortable

00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3 * Some Luck: 3 to 4.5 * Lucky: 4.5 to 6.01 * Wild Swing: 6.01 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.36 * Close: 1.36 to 2.04 * Off: 2.04 to 2.71 * Way Off: 2.71 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.96 points

Some Luck

03.759

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.33

Pinpoint

01.704

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

99.00%

Glenavon

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

9.00%

Ballymena United

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.20

Even

00.190.250.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 135.58

1.85

Moderate Separation

11.852.253

Interquartile Edge

79%

Clear Edge

50%70%81%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 94%

92%

Clear Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

55%

Frequent

0%56%100%

Blowouts

Expected

18%

Rare

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.53

Highly Predictable

00.542

Matchup Imbalance

0.42

Slight Separation

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.19

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.48

Some Carryover

00.470.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%24%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

Very Shaky

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.99

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.04

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.135

Near Noise Ceiling

00.1330.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Glentoran	57.00%	24.00%	6.00%	5.00%	7.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Glenavon	3.00%	11.00%	13.00%	22.00%	19.00%	5.00%	7.00%	13.00%	5.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%
Linfield	26.00%	26.00%	17.00%	13.00%	7.00%	6.00%	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Coleraine	8.00%	14.00%	18.00%	15.00%	13.00%	9.00%	7.00%	4.00%	7.00%	4.00%	—	1.00%
Larne	2.00%	7.00%	12.00%	12.00%	13.00%	12.00%	16.00%	8.00%	9.00%	6.00%	3.00%	—
Crusaders	4.00%	13.00%	21.00%	17.00%	15.00%	14.00%	4.00%	8.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—
Ards	—	1.00%	3.00%	8.00%	9.00%	11.00%	19.00%	11.00%	16.00%	13.00%	4.00%	5.00%
Portadown	—	2.00%	5.00%	5.00%	6.00%	11.00%	18.00%	19.00%	19.00%	6.00%	5.00%	4.00%
Ballymena United	—	2.00%	5.00%	—	7.00%	22.00%	10.00%	19.00%	10.00%	14.00%	10.00%	1.00%
Lisburn Distillery	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	5.00%	8.00%	16.00%	29.00%	35.00%
Bangor	—	—	—	2.00%	2.00%	3.00%	13.00%	7.00%	13.00%	25.00%	28.00%	7.00%
Cliftonville	—	—	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	2.00%	4.00%	9.00%	13.00%	21.00%	46.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Ards	100%
Ballymena United	100%
Bangor	100%
Cliftonville	100%
Coleraine	100%
Crusaders	100%
Glenavon	100%
Glentoran	100%
Larne	100%
Linfield	100%
Lisburn Distillery	100%
Portadown	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1976-11-20	Lisburn Distillery	W 1-0	34.3	1182	1120	64.34%	15.94%	19.72%	+0.76	+7.0	2
1976-11-20	@ Ards	L 0-1	34.3	1120	1182	19.72%	15.94%	64.34%	-0.76	-7.0	0
1976-11-20	Linfield	L 1-3	47.5	1313	1327	56.18%	16.04%	27.78%	+0.36	-28.8	0
1976-11-20	@ Coleraine	W 3-1	47.5	1327	1313	27.78%	16.04%	56.18%	-0.36	+28.8	2
1976-11-20	Cliftonville	W 6-2	30.6	1315	1159	71.77%	15.72%	12.51%	+1.26	+11.7	2
1976-11-20	@ Crusaders	L 2-6	30.6	1159	1315	12.51%	15.72%	71.77%	-1.26	-11.6	0
1976-11-20	Bangor	W 3-1	40.5	1161	1243	47.41%	16.07%	36.52%	-0.01	+19.8	2
1976-11-20	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	40.5	1243	1161	36.52%	16.07%	47.41%	+0.01	-19.8	0
1976-11-20	Ballymena United	W 3-1	35.9	1317	1253	64.47%	15.94%	19.59%	+0.77	+11.4	2
1976-11-20	@ Glentoran	L 1-3	35.9	1253	1317	19.59%	15.94%	64.47%	-0.77	-11.4	0
1976-11-20	Portadown	W 3-2	46.9	1188	1205	55.85%	16.05%	28.10%	+0.34	+8.6	2
1976-11-20	@ Larne	L 2-3	46.9	1205	1188	28.10%	16.05%	55.85%	-0.34	-8.6	0
1976-11-27	Ards	W 1-0	34.8	1241	1189	63.31%	15.96%	20.73%	+0.71	+7.4	2
1976-11-27	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	34.8	1189	1241	20.73%	15.96%	63.31%	-0.71	-7.4	2
1976-11-27	Coleraine	W 3-2	48.9	1224	1284	50.23%	16.07%	33.70%	+0.10	+10.1	2
1976-11-27	@ Bangor	L 2-3	48.9	1284	1224	33.70%	16.07%	50.23%	-0.10	-10.1	0
1976-11-27	Glenavon	L 1-3	45.6	1147	1181	53.73%	16.06%	30.21%	+0.25	-27.7	0
1976-11-27	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	45.6	1181	1147	30.21%	16.06%	53.73%	-0.25	+27.7	4
1976-11-27	Larne	L 0-1	50.5	1356	1197	71.97%	15.71%	12.32%	+1.27	-22.7	2
1976-11-27	@ Linfield	W 1-0	50.5	1197	1356	12.32%	15.71%	71.97%	-1.27	+22.7	4
1976-11-27	Glentoran	L 3-4	50.4	1113	1328	29.23%	15.96%	54.81%	-0.72	-8.7	0
1976-11-27	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 4-3	50.4	1328	1113	54.81%	15.96%	29.23%	+0.72	+8.7	4
1976-11-27	Crusaders	W 2-1	46.8	1196	1326	40.59%	16.06%	43.35%	-0.27	+13.2	2
1976-11-27	@ Portadown	L 1-2	46.8	1326	1196	43.35%	16.06%	40.59%	+0.27	-13.2	2
1976-12-04	Portadown	W 2-1	42.3	1182	1209	54.51%	16.06%	29.43%	+0.28	+9.5	4
1976-12-04	@ Ards	L 1-2	42.3	1209	1182	29.43%	16.06%	54.51%	-0.28	-9.5	2
1976-12-04	Cliftonville	W 3-1	33.2	1274	1120	71.69%	15.72%	12.58%	+1.25	+7.6	2
1976-12-04	@ Coleraine	L 1-3	33.2	1120	1274	12.58%	15.72%	71.69%	-1.25	-7.6	0
1976-12-04	Linfield	L 0-2	42.0	1313	1333	55.44%	16.05%	28.51%	+0.32	-32.9	2
1976-12-04	@ Crusaders	W 2-0	42.0	1333	1313	28.51%	16.05%	55.44%	-0.32	+32.9	4
1976-12-04	Ballymena United	W 1-0	38.0	1209	1249	52.95%	16.06%	30.99%	+0.22	+10.5	6
1976-12-04	@ Glenavon	L 0-1	38.0	1249	1209	30.99%	16.06%	52.95%	-0.22	-10.5	2
1976-12-04	Bangor	W 1-0	33.9	1337	1234	67.91%	15.86%	16.23%	+0.98	+5.9	6
1976-12-04	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	33.9	1234	1337	16.23%	15.86%	67.91%	-0.98	-5.9	2
1976-12-11	Crusaders	L 0-2	40.4	1238	1280	52.66%	16.06%	31.28%	+0.20	-31.4	2
1976-12-11	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	40.4	1280	1238	31.28%	16.06%	52.66%	-0.20	+31.3	4
1976-12-11	Larne	D 3-3	66.1	1228	1220	58.68%	16.02%	25.30%	+0.47	-1.5	3
1976-12-11	@ Bangor	D 3-3	66.1	1220	1228	25.30%	16.02%	58.68%	-0.47	+1.5	5
1976-12-11	Glenavon	L 0-3	43.2	1366	1219	71.16%	15.75%	13.09%	+1.21	-61.4	4
1976-12-11	@ Linfield	W 3-0	43.2	1219	1366	13.09%	15.75%	71.16%	-1.21	+61.4	8
1976-12-11	Coleraine	L 2-4	43.9	1104	1282	34.01%	16.01%	49.98%	-0.52	-16.6	0
1976-12-11	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 4-2	43.9	1282	1104	49.98%	16.01%	34.01%	+0.52	+16.6	4
1976-12-11	Glentoran	L 0-2	36.3	1200	1343	38.80%	16.05%	45.15%	-0.33	-24.0	2
1976-12-11	@ Portadown	W 2-0	36.3	1343	1200	45.15%	16.05%	38.80%	+0.33	+24.0	8
1976-12-18	Linfield	W 3-1	42.1	1191	1305	43.02%	16.07%	40.91%	-0.17	+21.8	6
1976-12-18	@ Ards	L 1-3	42.1	1305	1191	40.91%	16.07%	43.02%	+0.17	-21.8	4
1976-12-18	Portadown	W 3-1	34.1	1298	1176	69.42%	15.81%	14.77%	+1.08	+8.8	6
1976-12-18	@ Coleraine	L 1-3	34.1	1176	1298	14.77%	15.81%	69.42%	-1.08	-8.8	2
1976-12-18	Bangor	D 1-1	57.0	1312	1226	66.41%	15.90%	17.69%	+0.88	-3.7	5
1976-12-18	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	57.0	1226	1312	17.69%	15.90%	66.41%	-0.88	+3.7	4
1976-12-18	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-2	41.4	1281	1087	74.08%	15.60%	10.32%	+1.46	+3.4	10
1976-12-18	@ Glenavon	L 2-3	41.4	1087	1281	10.32%	15.60%	74.08%	-1.46	-3.4	0
1976-12-18	Cliftonville	W 5-0	23.4	1367	1112	77.14%	15.37%	7.49%	+1.79	+12.4	10
1976-12-18	@ Glentoran	L 0-5	23.4	1112	1367	7.49%	15.37%	77.14%	-1.79	-12.4	0
1976-12-18	Ballymena United	W 1-0	36.0	1221	1207	59.40%	16.02%	24.58%	+0.51	+8.6	7
1976-12-18	@ Larne	L 0-1	36.0	1207	1221	24.58%	16.02%	59.40%	-0.51	-8.6	2
1976-12-25	Coleraine	L 2-3	51.8	1198	1307	43.62%	16.07%	40.32%	-0.15	-12.6	2
1976-12-25	@ Ballymena United	W 3-2	51.8	1307	1198	40.32%	16.07%	43.62%	+0.15	+12.6	8
1976-12-25	Ards	L 0-2	42.2	1230	1213	59.65%	16.01%	24.34%	+0.52	-35.3	4
1976-12-25	@ Bangor	W 2-0	42.2	1213	1230	24.34%	16.01%	59.65%	-0.52	+35.3	8
1976-12-25	Larne	W 2-1	46.4	1100	1230	40.60%	16.06%	43.34%	-0.27	+13.2	2
1976-12-25	@ Cliftonville	L 1-2	46.4	1230	1100	43.34%	16.06%	40.60%	+0.27	-13.2	7
1976-12-25	Glentoran	W 3-0	34.1	1283	1379	45.40%	16.07%	38.53%	-0.09	+34.7	6
1976-12-25	@ Linfield	L 0-3	34.1	1379	1283	38.53%	16.07%	45.40%	+0.09	-34.7	10
1976-12-25	Crusaders	L 2-5	37.8	1084	1308	28.21%	15.94%	55.85%	-0.77	-19.3	0
1976-12-25	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 5-2	37.8	1308	1084	55.85%	15.94%	28.21%	+0.77	+19.3	7
1976-12-25	Glenavon	D 0-0	52.7	1167	1284	42.49%	16.06%	41.44%	-0.19	-0.1	3
1976-12-25	@ Portadown	D 0-0	52.7	1284	1167	41.44%	16.06%	42.49%	+0.19	+0.1	11
1976-12-27	Crusaders	W 2-1	44.9	1249	1327	47.83%	16.07%	36.10%	+0.01	+11.3	10
1976-12-27	@ Ards	L 1-2	44.9	1327	1249	36.10%	16.07%	47.83%	-0.01	-11.3	7
1976-12-27	Glenavon	W 5-1	35.3	1217	1284	49.36%	16.07%	34.57%	+0.07	+34.4	9
1976-12-27	@ Larne	L 1-5	35.3	1284	1217	34.57%	16.07%	49.36%	-0.07	-34.4	11
1976-12-27	Cliftonville	W 4-0	23.4	1318	1113	74.70%	15.56%	9.74%	+1.52	+13.0	8
1976-12-27	@ Linfield	L 0-4	23.4	1113	1318	9.74%	15.56%	74.70%	-1.52	-13.0	2
1976-12-28	Glentoran	D 0-0	53.8	1320	1345	54.84%	16.05%	29.10%	+0.30	-2.1	9
1976-12-28	@ Coleraine	D 0-0	53.8	1345	1320	29.10%	16.05%	54.84%	-0.30	+2.1	11
1976-12-28	Bangor	W 1-0	41.4	1064	1195	40.60%	16.06%	43.35%	-0.27	+14.0	2
1976-12-28	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 0-1	41.4	1195	1064	43.35%	16.06%	40.60%	+0.27	-14.0	4
1976-12-28	Ballymena United	D 1-1	56.5	1167	1186	55.59%	16.05%	28.36%	+0.33	-2.0	4
1976-12-28	@ Portadown	D 1-1	56.5	1186	1167	28.36%	16.05%	55.59%	-0.33	+2.0	3
1976-12-30	Ards	L 0-1	39.4	1100	1260	36.45%	16.03%	47.51%	-0.42	-12.1	2
1976-12-30	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	39.4	1260	1100	47.51%	16.03%	36.45%	+0.42	+12.1	12
1977-01-01	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-0	28.8	1188	1078	68.38%	15.84%	15.77%	+1.01	+10.8	5
1977-01-01	@ Ballymena United	L 0-2	28.8	1078	1188	15.77%	15.84%	68.38%	-1.01	-10.8	2
1977-01-01	Linfield	L 0-3	32.9	1181	1331	37.82%	16.04%	46.14%	-0.37	-34.1	4
1977-01-01	@ Bangor	W 3-0	32.9	1331	1181	46.14%	16.04%	37.82%	+0.37	+34.1	10
1977-01-01	Portadown	L 1-2	47.7	1088	1165	48.05%	16.07%	35.88%	+0.02	-14.4	2
1977-01-01	@ Cliftonville	W 2-1	47.7	1165	1088	35.88%	16.07%	48.05%	-0.02	+14.4	6
1977-01-01	Larne	W 2-1	39.8	1316	1251	64.55%	15.94%	19.52%	+0.77	+6.6	9
1977-01-01	@ Crusaders	L 1-2	39.8	1251	1316	19.52%	15.94%	64.55%	-0.77	-6.6	9
1977-01-01	Coleraine	W 2-0	35.2	1250	1318	49.29%	16.07%	34.64%	+0.07	+21.8	13
1977-01-01	@ Glenavon	L 0-2	35.2	1318	1250	34.64%	16.07%	49.29%	-0.07	-21.8	9
1977-01-01	Ards	W 3-0	27.7	1347	1272	65.46%	15.92%	18.62%	+0.83	+18.3	13
1977-01-01	@ Glentoran	L 0-3	27.7	1272	1347	18.62%	15.92%	65.46%	-0.83	-18.3	12
1977-01-08	Glenavon	L 2-3	55.5	1254	1272	55.67%	16.05%	28.28%	+0.33	-15.7	12
1977-01-08	@ Ards	W 3-2	55.5	1272	1254	28.28%	16.05%	55.67%	-0.33	+15.7	15
1977-01-08	Ballymena United	L 0-1	40.8	1073	1198	41.33%	16.06%	42.61%	-0.24	-13.4	2
1977-01-08	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	40.8	1198	1073	42.61%	16.06%	41.33%	+0.24	+13.4	7
1977-01-08	Crusaders	W 2-1	41.5	1365	1323	62.35%	15.98%	21.67%	+0.65	+7.2	15
1977-01-08	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	41.5	1323	1365	21.67%	15.98%	62.35%	-0.65	-7.2	9
1977-01-08	Coleraine	W 1-0	38.7	1245	1296	51.48%	16.07%	32.45%	+0.15	+10.9	11
1977-01-08	@ Larne	L 0-1	38.7	1296	1245	32.45%	16.07%	51.48%	-0.15	-10.9	9
1977-01-08	Linfield	L 1-6	30.3	1068	1365	20.43%	15.77%	63.80%	-1.15	-26.4	2
1977-01-08	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 6-1	30.3	1365	1068	63.80%	15.77%	20.43%	+1.15	+26.4	12
1977-01-08	Bangor	W 3-0	28.0	1180	1147	61.39%	15.99%	22.62%	+0.60	+21.8	8
1977-01-08	@ Portadown	L 0-3	28.0	1147	1180	22.62%	15.99%	61.39%	-0.60	-21.8	4
1977-01-15	Ballymena United	D 1-1	56.5	1125	1212	46.68%	16.07%	37.25%	-0.04	-0.7	5
1977-01-15	@ Bangor	D 1-1	56.5	1212	1125	37.25%	16.07%	46.68%	+0.04	+0.7	8
1977-01-15	Crusaders	W 3-0	31.0	1285	1315	54.15%	16.06%	29.79%	+0.27	+27.8	11
1977-01-15	@ Coleraine	L 0-3	31.0	1315	1285	29.79%	16.06%	54.15%	-0.27	-27.8	9
1977-01-15	Glentoran	W 1-0	40.9	1287	1372	46.98%	16.07%	36.95%	-0.02	+12.2	17
1977-01-15	@ Glenavon	L 0-1	40.9	1372	1287	36.95%	16.07%	46.98%	+0.02	-12.2	15
1977-01-15	Ards	W 2-0	31.7	1255	1238	59.74%	16.01%	24.25%	+0.52	+16.0	13
1977-01-15	@ Larne	L 0-2	31.7	1238	1255	24.25%	16.01%	59.74%	-0.52	-16.0	12
1977-01-15	Portadown	W 4-2	37.4	1391	1201	73.88%	15.61%	10.51%	+1.44	+5.7	14
1977-01-15	@ Linfield	L 2-4	37.4	1201	1391	10.51%	15.61%	73.88%	-1.44	-5.7	8
1977-01-15	Cliftonville	W 4-1	34.6	1041	1060	55.56%	16.05%	28.39%	+0.33	+22.5	4
1977-01-15	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 1-4	34.6	1060	1041	28.39%	16.05%	55.56%	-0.33	-22.5	2
1977-01-18	Lisburn Distillery	L 0-1	50.8	1271	1064	74.87%	15.55%	9.58%	+1.54	-23.7	13
1977-01-18	@ Larne	W 1-0	50.8	1064	1271	9.58%	15.55%	74.87%	-1.54	+23.6	6
1977-01-22	Coleraine	W 4-2	45.4	1222	1313	46.17%	16.07%	37.75%	-0.06	+18.2	14
1977-01-22	@ Ards	L 2-4	45.4	1313	1222	37.75%	16.07%	46.17%	+0.06	-18.2	11
1977-01-22	Linfield	D 1-1	57.3	1213	1397	33.20%	16.00%	50.79%	-0.55	+1.3	9
1977-01-22	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	57.3	1397	1213	50.79%	16.00%	33.20%	+0.55	-1.3	15
1977-01-22	Bangor	D 1-1	56.4	1038	1124	46.77%	16.07%	37.15%	-0.03	-0.7	3
1977-01-22	@ Cliftonville	D 1-1	56.4	1124	1038	37.15%	16.07%	46.77%	+0.03	+0.7	6
1977-01-22	Glenavon	L 1-2	51.0	1288	1299	56.39%	16.04%	27.56%	+0.37	-16.7	9
1977-01-22	@ Crusaders	W 2-1	51.0	1299	1288	27.56%	16.04%	56.39%	-0.37	+16.7	19
1977-01-22	Larne	W 3-1	34.9	1360	1248	68.62%	15.84%	15.55%	+1.03	+9.2	17
1977-01-22	@ Glentoran	L 1-3	34.9	1248	1360	15.55%	15.84%	68.62%	-1.03	-9.2	13
1977-01-22	Lisburn Distillery	W 5-0	25.7	1196	1087	68.30%	15.85%	15.85%	+1.01	+25.4	10
1977-01-22	@ Portadown	L 0-5	25.7	1087	1196	15.85%	15.85%	68.30%	-1.01	-25.4	6
1977-01-29	Glenavon	L 0-2	34.0	1125	1316	32.27%	15.99%	51.74%	-0.59	-20.5	6
1977-01-29	@ Bangor	W 2-0	34.0	1316	1125	51.74%	15.99%	32.27%	+0.59	+20.5	21
1977-01-29	Crusaders	L 0-3	29.3	1037	1271	27.06%	15.92%	57.01%	-0.82	-25.5	3
1977-01-29	@ Cliftonville	W 3-0	29.3	1271	1037	57.01%	15.92%	27.06%	+0.82	+25.5	11
1977-01-29	Coleraine	W 1-0	35.0	1396	1295	67.71%	15.86%	16.43%	+0.97	+5.9	17
1977-01-29	@ Linfield	L 0-1	35.0	1295	1396	16.43%	15.86%	67.71%	-0.97	-5.9	11
1977-01-29	Ards	D 0-0	52.5	1062	1240	33.99%	16.01%	49.99%	-0.52	+1.3	7
1977-01-29	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 0-0	52.5	1240	1062	49.99%	16.01%	33.99%	+0.52	-1.3	15
1977-01-29	Larne	L 1-2	50.3	1221	1239	55.70%	16.05%	28.25%	+0.33	-16.5	10
1977-01-29	@ Portadown	W 2-1	50.3	1239	1221	28.25%	16.05%	55.70%	-0.33	+16.5	15
1977-02-12	Ballymena United	W 2-0	31.4	1239	1214	60.55%	16.00%	23.45%	+0.56	+15.5	17
1977-02-12	@ Ards	L 0-2	31.4	1214	1239	23.45%	16.00%	60.55%	-0.56	-15.5	9
1977-02-12	Bangor	W 2-0	27.4	1289	1104	73.56%	15.63%	10.81%	+1.41	+7.6	13
1977-02-12	@ Coleraine	L 0-2	27.4	1104	1289	10.81%	15.63%	73.56%	-1.41	-7.6	6
1977-02-12	Portadown	W 2-1	38.8	1296	1204	66.96%	15.88%	17.16%	+0.92	+5.8	13
1977-02-12	@ Crusaders	L 1-2	38.8	1204	1296	17.16%	15.88%	66.96%	-0.92	-5.8	10
1977-02-12	Cliftonville	L 1-2	57.0	1337	1011	79.80%	15.06%	5.14%	+2.16	-23.8	21
1977-02-12	@ Glenavon	W 2-1	57.0	1011	1337	5.14%	15.06%	79.80%	-2.16	+23.8	5
1977-02-12	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-0	22.8	1369	1063	79.15%	15.15%	5.70%	+2.06	+5.9	19
1977-02-12	@ Glentoran	L 0-3	22.8	1063	1369	5.70%	15.15%	79.15%	-2.06	-5.9	7
1977-02-12	Linfield	L 1-2	46.1	1255	1401	38.31%	16.05%	45.64%	-0.35	-11.9	15
1977-02-12	@ Larne	W 2-1	46.1	1401	1255	45.64%	16.05%	38.31%	+0.35	+11.9	19
1977-02-19	Glenavon	W 1-0	41.2	1198	1313	42.84%	16.07%	41.09%	-0.18	+13.4	11
1977-02-19	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	41.2	1313	1198	41.09%	16.07%	42.84%	+0.18	-13.4	21
1977-02-19	Glentoran	L 1-4	33.1	1097	1375	22.25%	15.82%	61.93%	-1.06	-18.1	6
1977-02-19	@ Bangor	W 4-1	33.1	1375	1097	61.93%	15.82%	22.25%	+1.06	+18.1	21
1977-02-19	Coleraine	D 0-0	52.5	1035	1296	24.05%	15.86%	60.09%	-0.96	+3.0	6
1977-02-19	@ Cliftonville	D 0-0	52.5	1296	1035	60.09%	15.86%	24.05%	+0.96	-3.0	14
1977-02-19	Crusaders	D 0-0	54.5	1413	1302	68.54%	15.84%	15.62%	+1.02	-4.6	20
1977-02-19	@ Linfield	D 0-0	54.5	1302	1413	15.62%	15.84%	68.54%	-1.02	+4.6	14
1977-02-19	Larne	L 2-3	48.2	1057	1243	32.99%	16.00%	51.01%	-0.56	-9.9	7
1977-02-19	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-2	48.2	1243	1057	51.01%	16.00%	32.99%	+0.56	+9.9	17
1977-02-19	Ards	W 3-2	48.5	1199	1254	50.91%	16.07%	33.02%	+0.13	+9.9	12
1977-02-19	@ Portadown	L 2-3	48.5	1254	1199	33.02%	16.07%	50.91%	-0.13	-9.9	17
1977-02-26	Glentoran	L 0-4	31.3	1212	1393	33.57%	16.01%	50.42%	-0.54	-40.2	11
1977-02-26	@ Ballymena United	W 4-0	31.3	1393	1212	50.42%	16.01%	33.57%	+0.54	+40.2	23
1977-03-05	Cliftonville	W 2-1	36.1	1244	1038	74.79%	15.56%	9.65%	+1.53	+3.4	19
1977-03-05	@ Ards	L 1-2	36.1	1038	1244	9.65%	15.56%	74.79%	-1.53	-3.4	6
1977-03-05	Lisburn Distillery	D 0-0	52.7	1293	1047	76.74%	15.41%	7.85%	+1.74	-6.2	15
1977-03-05	@ Coleraine	D 0-0	52.7	1047	1293	7.85%	15.41%	76.74%	-1.74	+6.2	8
1977-03-05	Ballymena United	W 4-1	30.6	1307	1172	70.36%	15.78%	13.86%	+1.15	+11.7	16
1977-03-05	@ Crusaders	L 1-4	30.6	1172	1307	13.86%	15.78%	70.36%	-1.15	-11.7	11
1977-03-05	Linfield	W 2-1	47.4	1299	1409	43.57%	16.07%	40.36%	-0.15	+12.4	23
1977-03-05	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	47.4	1409	1299	40.36%	16.07%	43.57%	+0.15	-12.4	20
1977-03-05	Portadown	W 3-1	33.1	1433	1209	75.75%	15.49%	8.76%	+1.63	+5.3	25
1977-03-05	@ Glentoran	L 1-3	33.1	1209	1433	8.76%	15.49%	75.75%	-1.63	-5.3	12
1977-03-05	Bangor	W 3-0	24.5	1253	1079	72.97%	15.66%	11.37%	+1.36	+11.5	19
1977-03-05	@ Larne	L 0-3	24.5	1079	1253	11.37%	15.66%	72.97%	-1.36	-11.5	6
1977-03-12	Larne	W 4-1	38.3	1160	1265	44.20%	16.07%	39.73%	-0.13	+30.0	13
1977-03-12	@ Ballymena United	L 1-4	38.3	1265	1160	39.73%	16.07%	44.20%	+0.13	-30.0	19
1977-03-12	Crusaders	D 2-2	61.9	1067	1319	25.10%	15.89%	59.02%	-0.91	+1.9	7
1977-03-12	@ Bangor	D 2-2	61.9	1319	1067	59.02%	15.89%	25.10%	+0.91	-1.9	17
1977-03-12	Glentoran	L 1-3	33.2	1035	1439	12.15%	15.42%	72.44%	-1.72	-7.3	6
1977-03-12	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	33.2	1439	1035	72.44%	15.42%	12.15%	+1.72	+7.3	27
1977-03-12	Ards	W 3-1	34.4	1396	1248	71.29%	15.74%	12.97%	+1.22	+7.8	22
1977-03-12	@ Linfield	L 1-3	34.4	1248	1396	12.97%	15.74%	71.29%	-1.22	-7.8	19
1977-03-12	Glenavon	L 0-2	31.5	1054	1312	24.36%	15.87%	59.77%	-0.95	-16.0	8
1977-03-12	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 2-0	31.5	1312	1054	59.77%	15.87%	24.36%	+0.95	+16.0	25
1977-03-12	Coleraine	L 1-2	47.8	1203	1287	47.13%	16.07%	36.80%	-0.02	-14.2	12
1977-03-12	@ Portadown	W 2-1	47.8	1287	1203	36.80%	16.07%	47.13%	+0.02	+14.2	17
1977-03-19	Cliftonville	L 0-1	50.0	1190	1028	72.20%	15.70%	12.10%	+1.29	-22.8	13
1977-03-19	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	50.0	1028	1190	12.10%	15.70%	72.20%	-1.29	+22.7	8
1977-03-26	Bangor	W 3-2	41.7	1240	1069	72.75%	15.67%	11.57%	+1.34	+3.8	21
1977-03-26	@ Ards	L 2-3	41.7	1069	1240	11.57%	15.67%	72.75%	-1.34	-3.8	7
1977-03-26	Ballymena United	W 3-2	42.7	1301	1167	70.28%	15.78%	13.94%	+1.14	+4.6	19
1977-03-26	@ Coleraine	L 2-3	42.7	1167	1301	13.94%	15.78%	70.28%	-1.14	-4.6	13
1977-03-26	Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	56.7	1317	1038	78.15%	15.27%	6.58%	+1.92	-5.7	18
1977-03-26	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	56.7	1038	1317	6.58%	15.27%	78.15%	-1.92	+5.7	9
1977-03-26	Portadown	W 3-2	42.8	1328	1189	70.61%	15.77%	13.62%	+1.17	+4.5	27
1977-03-26	@ Glenavon	L 2-3	42.8	1189	1328	13.62%	15.77%	70.61%	-1.17	-4.5	12
1977-03-26	Linfield	W 2-0	35.4	1446	1404	62.30%	15.98%	21.72%	+0.65	+14.5	29
1977-03-26	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	35.4	1404	1446	21.72%	15.98%	62.30%	-0.65	-14.5	22
1977-03-26	Cliftonville	W 2-1	36.4	1235	1050	73.56%	15.63%	10.81%	+1.41	+3.8	21
1977-03-26	@ Larne	L 1-2	36.4	1050	1235	10.81%	15.63%	73.56%	-1.41	-3.8	8
1977-04-02	Portadown	L 2-4	50.2	1162	1185	55.17%	16.05%	28.78%	+0.31	-25.4	13
1977-04-02	@ Ballymena United	W 4-2	50.2	1185	1162	28.78%	16.05%	55.17%	-0.31	+25.4	14
1977-04-02	Lisburn Distillery	L 1-2	51.3	1065	1043	60.20%	16.01%	23.80%	+0.54	-17.8	7
1977-04-02	@ Bangor	W 2-1	51.3	1043	1065	23.80%	16.01%	60.20%	-0.54	+17.8	11
1977-04-02	Linfield	W 2-1	53.8	1047	1390	16.41%	15.64%	67.95%	-1.40	+20.1	10
1977-04-02	@ Cliftonville	L 1-2	53.8	1390	1047	67.95%	15.64%	16.41%	+1.40	-20.1	22
1977-04-02	Ards	W 4-3	47.8	1311	1244	64.74%	15.93%	19.33%	+0.79	+6.0	20
1977-04-02	@ Crusaders	L 3-4	47.8	1244	1311	19.33%	15.93%	64.74%	-0.79	-6.0	21
1977-04-02	Larne	D 1-1	57.1	1332	1238	67.12%	15.88%	17.00%	+0.93	-3.9	28
1977-04-02	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	57.1	1238	1332	17.00%	15.88%	67.12%	-0.93	+3.8	22
1977-04-02	Coleraine	W 4-2	40.1	1460	1306	71.70%	15.72%	12.58%	+1.25	+6.8	31
1977-04-02	@ Glentoran	L 2-4	40.1	1306	1460	12.58%	15.72%	71.70%	-1.25	-6.8	19
1977-04-09	Glentoran	L 0-1	38.6	1238	1467	27.60%	15.93%	56.47%	-0.79	-9.5	21
1977-04-09	@ Ards	W 1-0	38.6	1467	1238	56.47%	15.93%	27.60%	+0.79	+9.5	33
1977-04-09	Glenavon	W 3-2	48.3	1299	1328	54.27%	16.06%	29.67%	+0.27	+9.0	21
1977-04-09	@ Coleraine	L 2-3	48.3	1328	1299	29.67%	16.06%	54.27%	-0.27	-9.0	28
1977-04-09	Crusaders	W 3-0	32.5	1242	1317	48.40%	16.07%	35.53%	+0.03	+32.4	24
1977-04-09	@ Larne	L 0-3	32.5	1317	1242	35.53%	16.07%	48.40%	-0.03	-32.4	20
1977-04-09	Bangor	W 2-0	25.6	1370	1047	79.70%	15.07%	5.22%	+2.15	+3.7	24
1977-04-09	@ Linfield	L 0-2	25.6	1047	1370	5.22%	15.07%	79.70%	-2.15	-3.7	7
1977-04-09	Ballymena United	D 0-0	52.4	1061	1137	48.22%	16.07%	35.70%	+0.02	-1.0	12
1977-04-09	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 0-0	52.4	1137	1061	35.70%	16.07%	48.22%	-0.02	+1.0	14
1977-04-09	Cliftonville	W 2-1	37.2	1210	1067	70.93%	15.76%	13.32%	+1.19	+4.6	16
1977-04-09	@ Portadown	L 1-2	37.2	1067	1210	13.32%	15.76%	70.93%	-1.19	-4.6	10
1977-04-11	Portadown	W 1-0	43.1	1044	1215	34.96%	16.02%	49.01%	-0.48	+15.6	9
1977-04-11	@ Bangor	L 0-1	43.1	1215	1044	49.01%	16.02%	34.96%	+0.48	-15.6	16
1977-04-11	Larne	W 3-0	28.7	1308	1275	61.44%	15.99%	22.57%	+0.61	+21.8	23
1977-04-11	@ Coleraine	L 0-3	28.7	1275	1308	22.57%	15.99%	61.44%	-0.61	-21.8	24
1977-04-11	Glentoran	W 2-0	42.4	1285	1477	32.17%	15.99%	51.84%	-0.60	+30.9	22
1977-04-11	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	42.4	1477	1285	51.84%	15.99%	32.17%	+0.60	-30.9	33
1977-04-11	Ards	W 4-1	31.9	1319	1228	66.88%	15.89%	17.23%	+0.91	+14.3	30
1977-04-11	@ Glenavon	L 1-4	31.9	1228	1319	17.23%	15.89%	66.88%	-0.91	-14.3	21
1977-04-11	Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	56.9	1373	1060	79.40%	15.12%	5.49%	+2.10	-6.0	25
1977-04-11	@ Linfield	D 1-1	56.9	1060	1373	5.49%	15.12%	79.40%	-2.10	+6.0	13
1977-04-16	Larne	L 3-5	51.9	1214	1253	53.08%	16.06%	30.85%	+0.22	-23.1	21
1977-04-16	@ Ards	W 5-3	51.9	1253	1214	30.85%	16.06%	53.08%	-0.22	+23.1	26
1977-04-16	Bangor	L 0-2	43.8	1138	1059	65.83%	15.91%	18.26%	+0.85	-39.0	14
1977-04-16	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	43.8	1059	1138	18.26%	15.91%	65.83%	-0.85	+39.0	11
1977-04-16	Lisburn Distillery	L 0-2	41.3	1062	1066	57.29%	16.04%	26.67%	+0.41	-34.0	10
1977-04-16	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	41.3	1066	1062	26.67%	16.04%	57.29%	-0.41	+33.9	15
1977-04-16	Coleraine	L 0-2	42.2	1315	1330	56.09%	16.05%	27.87%	+0.35	-33.3	22
1977-04-16	@ Crusaders	W 2-0	42.2	1330	1315	27.87%	16.05%	56.09%	-0.35	+33.3	25
1977-04-16	Glenavon	W 1-0	36.2	1446	1334	68.61%	15.84%	15.55%	+1.03	+5.7	35
1977-04-16	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	36.2	1334	1446	15.55%	15.84%	68.61%	-1.03	-5.7	30
1977-04-16	Linfield	L 0-1	39.7	1199	1367	35.29%	16.02%	48.68%	-0.47	-11.7	16
1977-04-16	@ Portadown	W 1-0	39.7	1367	1199	48.68%	16.02%	35.29%	+0.47	+11.7	27
1977-04-30	Cliftonville	W 4-2	39.2	1098	1028	65.03%	15.93%	19.04%	+0.80	+9.9	13
1977-04-30	@ Bangor	L 2-4	39.2	1028	1098	19.04%	15.93%	65.03%	-0.80	-9.9	10
1977-04-30	Ards	W 2-0	28.1	1363	1191	72.83%	15.67%	11.51%	+1.35	+8.0	27
1977-04-30	@ Coleraine	L 0-2	28.1	1191	1363	11.51%	15.67%	72.83%	-1.35	-8.0	21
1977-04-30	Crusaders	D 1-1	57.4	1328	1282	62.71%	15.97%	21.32%	+0.67	-3.1	31
1977-04-30	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	57.4	1282	1328	21.32%	15.97%	62.71%	-0.67	+3.1	23
1977-04-30	Glentoran	D 2-2	63.9	1276	1452	34.35%	16.02%	49.63%	-0.51	+0.8	27
1977-04-30	@ Larne	D 2-2	63.9	1452	1276	49.63%	16.02%	34.35%	+0.51	-0.8	36
1977-04-30	Ballymena United	D 0-0	53.0	1379	1099	78.19%	15.27%	6.55%	+1.92	-6.4	28
1977-04-30	@ Linfield	D 0-0	53.0	1099	1379	6.55%	15.27%	78.19%	-1.92	+6.4	15
1977-04-30	Portadown	L 1-2	47.3	1100	1187	46.69%	16.07%	37.24%	-0.04	-14.1	15
1977-04-30	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	47.3	1187	1100	37.24%	16.07%	46.69%	+0.04	+14.1	18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1977-02-12	5.14%	Cliftonville	1011	2	@ Glenavon	1337	1
2	1977-01-18	9.58%	Lisburn Distillery	1064	1	@ Larne	1271	0
3	1977-03-19	12.10%	Cliftonville	1028	1	@ Ballymena United	1190	0
4	1976-11-27	12.32%	Larne	1197	1	@ Linfield	1356	0
5	1976-12-11	13.09%	Glenavon	1219	3	@ Linfield	1366	0
6	1977-04-02	16.41%	@ Cliftonville	1047	2	Linfield	1390	1
7	1977-04-16	18.26%	Bangor	1059	2	@ Ballymena United	1138	0
8	1977-04-02	23.80%	Lisburn Distillery	1043	2	@ Bangor	1065	1
9	1976-12-25	24.34%	Ards	1213	2	@ Bangor	1230	0
10	1977-04-16	26.67%	Lisburn Distillery	1066	2	@ Cliftonville	1062	0
11	1977-01-22	27.56%	Glenavon	1299	2	@ Crusaders	1288	1
12	1976-11-20	27.78%	Linfield	1327	3	@ Coleraine	1313	1
13	1977-04-16	27.87%	Coleraine	1330	2	@ Crusaders	1315	0
14	1977-01-29	28.25%	Larne	1239	2	@ Portadown	1221	1
15	1977-01-08	28.28%	Glenavon	1272	3	@ Ards	1254	2
16	1976-12-04	28.51%	Linfield	1333	2	@ Crusaders	1313	0
17	1977-04-02	28.78%	Portadown	1185	4	@ Ballymena United	1162	2
18	1976-11-27	30.21%	Glenavon	1181	3	@ Cliftonville	1147	1
19	1977-04-16	30.85%	Larne	1253	5	@ Ards	1214	3
20	1976-12-11	31.28%	Crusaders	1280	2	@ Ballymena United	1238	0
21	1977-04-11	32.17%	@ Crusaders	1285	2	Glentoran	1477	0
22	1977-04-11	34.96%	@ Bangor	1044	1	Portadown	1215	0
23	1977-01-01	35.88%	Portadown	1165	2	@ Cliftonville	1088	1
24	1977-03-12	36.80%	Coleraine	1287	2	@ Portadown	1203	1
25	1977-04-30	37.24%	Portadown	1187	2	@ Lisburn Distillery	1100	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1976-12-11	61.36	Glenavon	3	1219	13.09%	@ Linfield	0	1366	71.16%	15.75%
2	1977-02-26	40.25	Glentoran	4	1393	50.42%	@ Ballymena United	0	1212	33.57%	16.01%
3	1977-04-16	38.96	Bangor	2	1059	18.26%	@ Ballymena United	0	1138	65.83%	15.91%
4	1976-12-25	35.30	Ards	2	1213	24.34%	@ Bangor	0	1230	59.65%	16.01%
5	1976-12-25	34.67	@ Linfield	3	1283	45.40%	Glentoran	0	1379	38.53%	16.07%
6	1976-12-27	34.42	@ Larne	5	1217	49.36%	Glenavon	1	1284	34.57%	16.07%
7	1977-01-01	34.12	Linfield	3	1331	46.14%	@ Bangor	0	1181	37.82%	16.04%
8	1977-04-16	33.95	Lisburn Distillery	2	1066	26.67%	@ Cliftonville	0	1062	57.29%	16.04%
9	1977-04-16	33.26	Coleraine	2	1330	27.87%	@ Crusaders	0	1315	56.09%	16.05%
10	1976-12-04	32.90	Linfield	2	1333	28.51%	@ Crusaders	0	1313	55.44%	16.05%
11	1977-04-09	32.37	@ Larne	3	1242	48.40%	Crusaders	0	1317	35.53%	16.07%
12	1976-12-11	31.35	Crusaders	2	1280	31.28%	@ Ballymena United	0	1238	52.66%	16.06%
13	1977-04-11	30.87	@ Crusaders	2	1285	32.17%	Glentoran	0	1477	51.84%	15.99%
14	1977-03-12	30.01	@ Ballymena United	4	1160	44.20%	Larne	1	1265	39.73%	16.07%
15	1976-11-20	28.85	Linfield	3	1327	27.78%	@ Coleraine	1	1313	56.18%	16.04%
16	1977-01-15	27.80	@ Coleraine	3	1285	54.15%	Crusaders	0	1315	29.79%	16.06%
17	1976-11-27	27.66	Glenavon	3	1181	30.21%	@ Cliftonville	1	1147	53.73%	16.06%
18	1977-01-08	26.42	Linfield	6	1365	63.80%	@ Lisburn Distillery	1	1068	20.43%	15.77%
19	1977-01-29	25.51	Crusaders	3	1271	57.01%	@ Cliftonville	0	1037	27.06%	15.92%
20	1977-04-02	25.37	Portadown	4	1185	28.78%	@ Ballymena United	2	1162	55.17%	16.05%
21	1977-01-22	25.36	@ Portadown	5	1196	68.30%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1087	15.85%	15.85%
22	1976-12-11	24.01	Glentoran	2	1343	45.15%	@ Portadown	0	1200	38.80%	16.05%
23	1977-02-12	23.83	Cliftonville	2	1011	5.14%	@ Glenavon	1	1337	79.80%	15.06%
24	1977-01-18	23.65	Lisburn Distillery	1	1064	9.58%	@ Larne	0	1271	74.87%	15.55%
25	1977-04-16	23.12	Larne	5	1253	30.85%	@ Ards	3	1214	53.08%	16.06%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1976-12-11	66.1	@ Bangor	3	1228	58.68%	Larne	3	1220	25.30%	16.02%
2	1977-04-30	63.9	@ Larne	2	1276	34.35%	Glentoran	2	1452	49.63%	16.02%
3	1977-03-12	61.9	@ Bangor	2	1067	25.10%	Crusaders	2	1319	59.02%	15.89%
4	1977-04-30	57.4	@ Glenavon	1	1328	62.71%	Crusaders	1	1282	21.32%	15.97%
5	1977-01-22	57.3	@ Ballymena United	1	1213	33.20%	Linfield	1	1397	50.79%	16.00%
6	1977-04-02	57.1	@ Glenavon	1	1332	67.12%	Larne	1	1238	17.00%	15.88%
7	1976-12-18	57.0	@ Crusaders	1	1312	66.41%	Bangor	1	1226	17.69%	15.90%
8	1977-02-12	57.0	Cliftonville	2	1011	5.14%	@ Glenavon	1	1337	79.80%	15.06%
9	1977-04-11	56.9	@ Linfield	1	1373	79.40%	Lisburn Distillery	1	1060	5.49%	15.12%
10	1977-03-26	56.7	@ Crusaders	1	1317	78.15%	Lisburn Distillery	1	1038	6.58%	15.27%
11	1976-12-28	56.5	@ Portadown	1	1167	55.59%	Ballymena United	1	1186	28.36%	16.05%
12	1977-01-15	56.5	@ Bangor	1	1125	46.68%	Ballymena United	1	1212	37.25%	16.07%
13	1977-01-22	56.4	@ Cliftonville	1	1038	46.77%	Bangor	1	1124	37.15%	16.07%
14	1977-01-08	55.5	Glenavon	3	1272	28.28%	@ Ards	2	1254	55.67%	16.05%
15	1977-02-19	54.5	@ Linfield	0	1413	68.54%	Crusaders	0	1302	15.62%	15.84%
16	1976-12-28	53.8	@ Coleraine	0	1320	54.84%	Glentoran	0	1345	29.10%	16.05%
17	1977-04-02	53.8	@ Cliftonville	2	1047	16.41%	Linfield	1	1390	67.95%	15.64%
18	1977-04-30	53.0	@ Linfield	0	1379	78.19%	Ballymena United	0	1099	6.55%	15.27%
19	1976-12-25	52.7	@ Portadown	0	1167	42.49%	Glenavon	0	1284	41.44%	16.06%
20	1977-03-05	52.7	@ Coleraine	0	1293	76.74%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1047	7.85%	15.41%
21	1977-01-29	52.5	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	1062	33.99%	Ards	0	1240	49.99%	16.01%
22	1977-02-19	52.5	@ Cliftonville	0	1035	24.05%	Coleraine	0	1296	60.09%	15.86%
23	1977-04-09	52.4	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	1061	48.22%	Ballymena United	0	1137	35.70%	16.07%
24	1977-04-16	51.9	Larne	5	1253	30.85%	@ Ards	3	1214	53.08%	16.06%
25	1976-12-25	51.8	Coleraine	3	1307	40.32%	@ Ballymena United	2	1198	43.62%	16.07%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1977-02-12	22.8	@ Glentoran	3	1369	79.15%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1063	5.70%	15.15%
2	1976-12-18	23.4	@ Glentoran	5	1367	77.14%	Cliftonville	0	1112	7.49%	15.37%
3	1976-12-27	23.4	@ Linfield	4	1318	74.70%	Cliftonville	0	1113	9.74%	15.56%
4	1977-03-05	24.5	@ Larne	3	1253	72.97%	Bangor	0	1079	11.37%	15.66%
5	1977-04-09	25.6	@ Linfield	2	1370	79.70%	Bangor	0	1047	5.22%	15.07%
6	1977-01-22	25.7	@ Portadown	5	1196	68.30%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1087	15.85%	15.85%
7	1977-02-12	27.4	@ Coleraine	2	1289	73.56%	Bangor	0	1104	10.81%	15.63%
8	1977-01-01	27.7	@ Glentoran	3	1347	65.46%	Ards	0	1272	18.62%	15.92%
9	1977-01-08	28.0	@ Portadown	3	1180	61.39%	Bangor	0	1147	22.62%	15.99%
10	1977-04-30	28.1	@ Coleraine	2	1363	72.83%	Ards	0	1191	11.51%	15.67%
11	1977-04-11	28.7	@ Coleraine	3	1308	61.44%	Larne	0	1275	22.57%	15.99%
12	1977-01-01	28.8	@ Ballymena United	2	1188	68.38%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1078	15.77%	15.84%
13	1977-01-29	29.3	Crusaders	3	1271	57.01%	@ Cliftonville	0	1037	27.06%	15.92%
14	1977-01-08	30.3	Linfield	6	1365	63.80%	@ Lisburn Distillery	1	1068	20.43%	15.77%
15	1976-11-20	30.6	@ Crusaders	6	1315	71.77%	Cliftonville	2	1159	12.51%	15.72%
16	1977-03-05	30.6	@ Crusaders	4	1307	70.36%	Ballymena United	1	1172	13.86%	15.78%
17	1977-01-15	31.0	@ Coleraine	3	1285	54.15%	Crusaders	0	1315	29.79%	16.06%
18	1977-02-26	31.3	Glentoran	4	1393	50.42%	@ Ballymena United	0	1212	33.57%	16.01%
19	1977-02-12	31.4	@ Ards	2	1239	60.55%	Ballymena United	0	1214	23.45%	16.00%
20	1977-03-12	31.5	Glenavon	2	1312	59.77%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	1054	24.36%	15.87%
21	1977-01-15	31.7	@ Larne	2	1255	59.74%	Ards	0	1238	24.25%	16.01%
22	1977-04-11	31.9	@ Glenavon	4	1319	66.88%	Ards	1	1228	17.23%	15.89%
23	1977-04-09	32.5	@ Larne	3	1242	48.40%	Crusaders	0	1317	35.53%	16.07%
24	1977-01-01	32.9	Linfield	3	1331	46.14%	@ Bangor	0	1181	37.82%	16.04%
25	1977-02-19	33.1	Glentoran	4	1375	61.93%	@ Bangor	1	1097	22.25%	15.82%