1977-78 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

40 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Cliftonville

7.44 points above expected

25 points · 17.56 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Coleraine

7.01 points below expected

19 points · 26.01 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Linfield	22	19	2	1	40	65	22	+43	33.49	+6.51
2	Glentoran	22	15	4	3	34	59	23	+36	31.45	+2.55
3	Glenavon	22	13	2	7	28	38	30	+8	26.26	+1.74
4	Cliftonville	22	10	5	7	25	34	35	-1	17.56	+7.44
5	Portadown	22	8	5	9	21	42	34	+8	23.10	-2.10
6	Larne	22	10	1	11	21	31	31	0	20.91	+0.09
7	Ards	22	9	3	10	21	37	41	-4	20.48	+0.52
8	Coleraine	22	8	3	11	19	34	41	-7	26.01	-7.01
9	Lisburn Distillery	22	6	4	12	16	32	59	-27	15.58	+0.42
10	Crusaders	22	6	3	13	15	25	46	-21	17.74	-2.74
11	Bangor	22	5	4	13	14	22	35	-13	16.88	-2.88
12	Ballymena United	22	4	2	16	10	22	44	-22	14.54	-4.54

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Cliftonville	25	17.56	+7.44
2	Linfield	40	33.49	+6.51
3	Glentoran	34	31.45	+2.55
4	Glenavon	28	26.26	+1.74
5	Ards	21	20.48	+0.52

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Coleraine	19	26.01	-7.01
2	Ballymena United	10	14.54	-4.54
3	Bangor	14	16.88	-2.88
4	Crusaders	15	17.74	-2.74
5	Portadown	21	23.10	-2.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Linfield	8	Nov 26 – Jan 2	1 in 165
2	Lisburn Distillery	2	Dec 27 – Dec 31	1 in 20
3	Larne	4	Feb 18 – Mar 25	1 in 20
4	Coleraine	4	Dec 3 – Dec 17	1 in 10
5	Bangor	2	Dec 24 – Dec 26	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Coleraine	5	Apr 1 – Apr 22	1 in 85
2	Ards	4	Dec 10 – Dec 26	1 in 59
3	Ballymena United	7	Nov 26 – Dec 31	1 in 45
4	Portadown	3	Feb 18 – Mar 11	1 in 15
5	Larne	4	Dec 31 – Jan 14	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Cliftonville	8	Jan 7 – Mar 11	1 in 723
2	Linfield	16	Nov 26 – Mar 11	1 in 69
3	Larne	5	Feb 11 – Mar 25	1 in 21
4	Portadown	6	Jan 2 – Feb 11	1 in 19
5	Glentoran	9	Mar 4 – Apr 22	1 in 14

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Coleraine	5	Jan 28 – Mar 11	1 in 71
2	Portadown	5	Jan 28 – Mar 11	1 in 25
3	Ballymena United	9	Nov 26 – Jan 7	1 in 23
4	Bangor	6	Dec 31 – Jan 28	1 in 15
5	Glenavon	3	Feb 18 – Mar 11	1 in 14

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Linfield	1552	40	+24	10	8.5	+1.5
Glentoran	1484	34	+22	8	7.6	+0.4
Glenavon	1294	28	+8	6	5.7	+0.3
Cliftonville	1216	25	+51	7	5.0	+2.0
Ards	1205	21	+12	5	4.6	+0.4
Larne	1226	21	-10	4	5.0	-1.0
Portadown	1233	21	-2	4	5.2	-1.2
Coleraine	1142	19	-109	0	4.6	-4.6
Lisburn Distillery	1009	16	-106	1	4.1	-3.1
Crusaders	1113	15	+28	5	2.6	+2.4
Bangor	1130	14	+52	5	4.0	+1.0
Ballymena United	1040	10	+19	5	3.9	+1.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ARD	BU	BAN	CLI	COL	CRU	GLE	GLE	LAR	LIN	LD	POR
Ards	—	2-0-0 3.44	1-0-1 3.31	0-1-1 3.13	1-0-1 2.44	2-0-0 3.15	1-0-1 1.93	0-1-1 1.12	1-0-1 2.84	0-0-2 1.19	0-1-1 3.31	1-0-1 2.32
Ballymena United	0-0-2 2.26	—	1-1-0 2.23	0-0-2 2.41	1-0-1 1.41	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-2 1.73	0-0-2 1.04	0-0-2 2.18	0-0-2 0.72	1-1-0 2.48	0-0-2 1.72
Bangor	1-0-1 2.38	0-1-1 3.47	—	0-1-1 2.68	1-0-1 1.42	1-0-1 2.59	0-1-1 1.55	0-0-2 1.38	0-0-2 2.44	0-1-1 0.86	1-0-1 2.85	1-0-1 2.15
Cliftonville	1-1-0 2.56	2-0-0 3.28	1-1-0 3.01	—	1-0-1 1.57	1-1-0 2.40	0-1-1 1.87	1-0-1 1.02	0-0-2 2.47	0-0-2 0.85	2-0-0 3.38	1-1-0 1.84
Coleraine	1-0-1 3.26	1-0-1 4.29	1-0-1 4.28	1-0-1 4.13	—	0-1-1 4.23	1-0-1 2.97	0-1-1 1.85	1-0-1 3.46	0-0-2 1.67	1-0-1 4.24	1-1-0 3.12
Crusaders	0-0-2 2.55	1-0-1 3.36	1-0-1 3.11	0-1-1 3.29	1-1-0 1.47	—	0-0-2 1.75	0-1-1 0.83	2-0-0 2.02	0-0-2 1.79	0-0-2 3.05	1-0-1 1.63
Glenavon	1-0-1 3.76	2-0-0 3.97	1-1-0 4.14	1-1-0 3.83	1-0-1 2.72	2-0-0 3.95	—	1-0-1 1.92	1-0-1 3.89	0-0-2 2.13	2-0-0 4.06	1-0-1 3.14
Glentoran	1-1-0 4.58	2-0-0 4.67	2-0-0 4.33	1-0-1 4.69	1-1-0 3.84	1-1-0 4.88	1-0-1 3.78	—	2-0-0 4.36	1-0-1 2.56	1-1-0 4.65	2-0-0 3.86
Larne	1-0-1 2.85	2-0-0 3.52	2-0-0 3.25	2-0-0 3.22	1-0-1 2.24	0-0-2 3.67	1-0-1 1.80	0-0-2 1.35	—	0-0-2 1.45	1-0-1 3.17	0-1-1 2.58
Linfield	2-0-0 4.51	2-0-0 5.00	1-1-0 4.85	2-0-0 4.86	2-0-0 4.02	2-0-0 3.91	2-0-0 3.57	1-0-1 3.13	2-0-0 4.25	—	2-0-0 4.96	1-1-0 4.56
Lisburn Distillery	1-1-0 2.39	0-1-1 3.22	1-0-1 2.84	0-0-2 2.31	1-0-1 1.46	2-0-0 2.64	0-0-2 1.64	0-1-1 1.05	1-0-1 2.52	0-0-2 0.75	—	0-1-1 1.76
Portadown	1-0-1 3.38	2-0-0 3.98	1-0-1 3.55	0-1-1 3.85	0-1-1 2.57	1-0-1 4.06	1-0-1 2.55	0-0-2 1.84	1-1-0 3.11	0-1-1 1.14	1-1-0 3.94	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.88	+6.0
Allowed	0.60	-6.5
Differential	0.90	+3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.58%	4.92%	3.41%	2.27%	1.14%	19.32%
1	7.58%	6.82%	9.09%	5.30%	2.65%	0.76%	32.20%
2	4.92%	9.09%	6.06%	3.03%	1.14%	0.76%	25.00%
3	3.41%	5.30%	3.03%	1.52%	0.38%	—	13.64%
4	2.27%	2.65%	1.14%	0.38%	—	0.38%	6.82%
5+	1.14%	0.76%	0.76%	—	0.38%	—	3.03%
Total	19.32%	32.20%	25.00%	13.64%	6.82%	3.03%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.67	1.67	+0.00
SD	1.34	1.34	2.08
CV	0.80	0.80	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	36.36%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.68	1.86	-0.18
SD	1.09	1.55	1.71
CV	0.65	0.83	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	—	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	9.09%	13.64%	45.45%	31.82%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.00	-1.00
SD	0.87	0.93	1.51
CV	0.87	0.46	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.73%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	40.91%
1	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	45.45%	27.27%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.59	-0.59
SD	1.11	1.37	1.92
CV	1.11	0.86	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
1	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	50.00%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.59	-0.05
SD	1.01	1.30	1.91
CV	0.65	0.82	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
1	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	27.27%	22.73%	13.64%	18.18%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.86	-0.32
SD	1.22	1.39	1.94
CV	0.79	0.75	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	22.73%
1	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	45.45%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	22.73%	18.18%	22.73%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	2.09	-0.95
SD	0.83	1.57	1.89
CV	0.73	0.75	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	18.18%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	18.18%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.73	1.36	+0.36
SD	1.45	1.26	2.11
CV	0.84	0.92	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
2	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
5+	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.68	1.05	+1.64
SD	1.55	1.05	2.01
CV	0.58	1.00	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	1	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	31.82%	—	—	4.55%	—	36.36%
1	9.09%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
3	—	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	40.91%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.41	+0.00
SD	1.40	1.05	1.69
CV	1.00	0.75	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
4	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	22.73%	—	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.95	1.00	+1.95
SD	1.56	1.02	1.56
CV	0.53	1.02	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	1	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	18.18%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	40.91%
2	—	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	4.55%	18.18%	27.27%	22.73%	18.18%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	2.68	-1.23
SD	1.18	1.59	2.37
CV	0.81	0.59	—
Max	5	7	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
1	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	—	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	9.09%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	22.73%	36.36%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.55	+0.36
SD	1.19	1.14	1.99
CV	0.62	0.74	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Linfield	1552	40	33.49	+6.51	100.0%	24	27	31	34	36	38	39
Glentoran	1484	34	31.45	+2.55	83.0%	20	25	30	32	34	36	39
Glenavon	1294	28	26.26	+1.74	76.0%	19	20	23	26	28	32	36
Portadown	1233	21	23.10	-2.10	35.0%	14	16	20	24	26	29	32
Larne	1226	21	20.91	+0.09	50.0%	11	14	18	21	24	27	29
Cliftonville	1216	25	17.56	+7.44	98.0%	10	11	15	17	20	23	26
Ards	1205	21	20.48	+0.52	63.0%	9	14	17	20	24	27	30
Coleraine	1142	19	26.01	-7.01	3.0%	18	20	23	26	28	31	36
Bangor	1130	14	16.88	-2.88	29.0%	6	10	14	17	20	23	26
Crusaders	1113	15	17.74	-2.74	26.0%	7	12	15	17	20	24	29
Ballymena United	1040	10	14.54	-4.54	13.0%	4	8	12	15	17	21	24
Lisburn Distillery	1009	16	15.58	+0.42	61.0%	8	10	13	15	18	22	23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+21.97%

Strong Edge

53.79%14.39%31.82%

Elo Value

Home Edge

190 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

077.60500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.45 goals

Neutral

-2+0.41+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.9

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

66%

Linfield, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.27/gm

Comfortable

00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3 * Some Luck: 3 to 4.5 * Lucky: 4.5 to 6 * Wild Swing: 6 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.2 * Close: 1.2 to 1.79 * Off: 1.79 to 2.39 * Way Off: 2.39 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.06 points

Some Luck

03.759

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.17

Pinpoint

01.493

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

100.00%

Linfield

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.00%

Coleraine

050

Season Outliers

Expected

3 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.21

Even

00.190.250.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 162.01

1.99

Moderate Separation

11.852.253

Interquartile Edge

67%

Even

50%70%81%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 96%

96%

Strong Edge

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

55%

Frequent

0%53%100%

Blowouts

Expected

22%

Occasional

0%23%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.52

Highly Predictable

00.512

Matchup Imbalance

0.47

Notable Separation

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.26

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.53

Some Carryover

00.470.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

24%

Very Upset-Prone

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Very Shaky

0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.92

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.97

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.076

Well Within Noise

00.1300.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Linfield	66.00%	23.00%	6.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Glentoran	29.00%	53.00%	10.00%	6.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Glenavon	3.00%	14.00%	30.00%	23.00%	15.00%	6.00%	5.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—	—	—
Cliftonville	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	2.00%	10.00%	17.00%	14.00%	15.00%	12.00%	15.00%	11.00%
Portadown	1.00%	—	17.00%	17.00%	24.00%	15.00%	7.00%	11.00%	6.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%
Larne	—	—	5.00%	9.00%	20.00%	16.00%	12.00%	15.00%	7.00%	9.00%	3.00%	4.00%
Ards	—	2.00%	6.00%	7.00%	9.00%	17.00%	15.00%	16.00%	11.00%	10.00%	5.00%	2.00%
Coleraine	1.00%	8.00%	25.00%	26.00%	19.00%	8.00%	9.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—
Lisburn Distillery	—	—	—	—	1.00%	4.00%	7.00%	9.00%	15.00%	15.00%	24.00%	25.00%
Crusaders	—	—	—	2.00%	5.00%	7.00%	14.00%	10.00%	18.00%	20.00%	17.00%	7.00%
Bangor	—	—	—	2.00%	3.00%	13.00%	9.00%	12.00%	16.00%	15.00%	10.00%	20.00%
Ballymena United	—	—	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	5.00%	6.00%	11.00%	18.00%	26.00%	30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Ards	100%
Ballymena United	100%
Bangor	100%
Cliftonville	100%
Coleraine	100%
Crusaders	100%
Glenavon	100%
Glentoran	100%
Larne	100%
Linfield	100%
Lisburn Distillery	100%
Portadown	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1977-11-26	Glenavon	L 0-1	39.7	1144	1274	40.37%	15.25%	44.38%	-0.28	-15.1	0
1977-11-26	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	39.7	1274	1144	44.38%	15.25%	40.37%	+0.28	+15.1	2
1977-11-26	Glentoran	L 0-4	30.2	1146	1349	30.68%	15.19%	54.13%	-0.66	-42.6	0
1977-11-26	@ Bangor	W 4-0	30.2	1349	1146	54.13%	15.19%	30.68%	+0.66	+42.6	2
1977-11-26	Crusaders	W 1-0	42.2	1091	1254	35.86%	15.23%	48.91%	-0.45	+17.9	2
1977-11-26	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	42.2	1254	1091	48.91%	15.23%	35.86%	+0.45	-17.9	0
1977-11-26	Larne	W 1-0	34.2	1310	1247	64.48%	15.17%	20.34%	+0.74	+8.3	2
1977-11-26	@ Linfield	L 0-1	34.2	1247	1310	20.34%	15.17%	64.48%	-0.74	-8.3	0
1977-11-26	Ards	D 2-2	61.2	1131	1191	50.28%	15.27%	34.45%	+0.10	-1.0	1
1977-11-26	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 2-2	61.2	1191	1131	34.45%	15.27%	50.28%	-0.10	+1.0	1
1977-12-03	Ballymena United	W 2-1	38.6	1192	1129	64.45%	15.17%	20.38%	+0.74	+7.8	3
1977-12-03	@ Ards	L 1-2	38.6	1129	1192	20.38%	15.17%	64.45%	-0.74	-7.8	0
1977-12-03	Bangor	W 2-1	35.6	1304	1104	74.77%	14.90%	10.32%	+1.46	+4.1	2
1977-12-03	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	35.6	1104	1304	10.32%	14.90%	74.77%	-1.46	-4.1	0
1977-12-03	Linfield	L 0-3	36.1	1236	1319	47.17%	15.27%	37.56%	-0.03	-47.4	0
1977-12-03	@ Crusaders	W 3-0	36.1	1319	1236	37.56%	15.27%	47.17%	+0.03	+47.4	4
1977-12-03	Lisburn Distillery	W 4-1	30.8	1289	1130	72.24%	15.00%	12.76%	+1.25	+12.4	4
1977-12-03	@ Glenavon	L 1-4	30.8	1130	1289	12.76%	15.00%	72.24%	-1.25	-12.4	1
1977-12-03	Cliftonville	W 5-0	23.4	1392	1109	78.64%	14.66%	6.70%	+1.90	+12.7	4
1977-12-03	@ Glentoran	L 0-5	23.4	1109	1392	6.70%	14.66%	78.64%	-1.90	-12.7	2
1977-12-03	Portadown	L 0-4	39.3	1239	1203	61.69%	15.21%	23.10%	+0.60	-79.6	0
1977-12-03	@ Larne	W 4-0	39.3	1203	1239	23.10%	15.21%	61.69%	-0.60	+79.6	2
1977-12-10	Glentoran	L 0-2	30.7	1121	1404	21.62%	15.07%	63.32%	-1.08	-16.4	0
1977-12-10	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	30.7	1404	1121	63.32%	15.07%	21.62%	+1.08	+16.4	6
1977-12-10	Glenavon	L 0-1	36.8	1100	1302	30.75%	15.19%	54.05%	-0.66	-11.9	0
1977-12-10	@ Bangor	W 1-0	36.8	1302	1100	54.05%	15.19%	30.75%	+0.66	+11.9	6
1977-12-10	Coleraine	L 1-4	35.9	1096	1308	29.52%	15.18%	55.30%	-0.71	-26.6	2
1977-12-10	@ Cliftonville	W 4-1	35.9	1308	1096	55.30%	15.18%	29.52%	+0.71	+26.6	4
1977-12-10	Ards	W 6-4	41.5	1366	1199	72.72%	14.99%	12.30%	+1.28	+6.9	6
1977-12-10	@ Linfield	L 4-6	41.5	1199	1366	12.30%	14.99%	72.72%	-1.28	-6.9	3
1977-12-10	Larne	W 3-1	39.2	1118	1159	52.67%	15.26%	32.07%	+0.19	+20.2	3
1977-12-10	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 1-3	39.2	1159	1118	32.07%	15.26%	52.67%	-0.19	-20.2	0
1977-12-10	Crusaders	W 3-0	26.8	1283	1189	67.25%	15.13%	17.62%	+0.90	+19.8	4
1977-12-10	@ Portadown	L 0-3	26.8	1189	1283	17.62%	15.13%	67.25%	-0.90	-19.8	0
1977-12-15	Coleraine	L 0-1	44.8	1302	1335	53.78%	15.26%	30.96%	+0.24	-19.5	4
1977-12-15	@ Portadown	W 1-0	44.8	1335	1302	30.96%	15.26%	53.78%	-0.24	+19.5	6
1977-12-17	Cliftonville	L 1-2	53.3	1193	1070	69.64%	15.08%	15.29%	+1.06	-23.7	3
1977-12-17	@ Ards	W 2-1	53.3	1070	1193	15.29%	15.08%	69.64%	-1.06	+23.7	4
1977-12-17	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	32.7	1354	1138	75.63%	14.86%	9.51%	+1.55	+6.6	8
1977-12-17	@ Coleraine	L 1-3	32.7	1138	1354	9.51%	14.86%	75.63%	-1.55	-6.6	3
1977-12-17	Ballymena United	W 2-1	38.5	1169	1104	64.60%	15.17%	20.23%	+0.75	+7.8	2
1977-12-17	@ Crusaders	L 1-2	38.5	1104	1169	20.23%	15.17%	64.60%	-0.75	-7.8	0
1977-12-17	Linfield	L 0-4	37.4	1314	1373	50.32%	15.27%	34.41%	+0.10	-65.6	6
1977-12-17	@ Glenavon	W 4-0	37.4	1373	1314	34.41%	15.27%	50.32%	-0.10	+65.6	8
1977-12-17	Portadown	W 2-1	38.6	1421	1283	70.76%	15.05%	14.20%	+1.13	+5.6	8
1977-12-17	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	38.6	1283	1421	14.20%	15.05%	70.76%	-1.13	-5.6	4
1977-12-17	Bangor	W 1-0	33.9	1139	1088	63.29%	15.19%	21.52%	+0.68	+8.7	2
1977-12-17	@ Larne	L 0-1	33.9	1088	1139	21.52%	15.19%	63.29%	-0.68	-8.7	0
1977-12-24	Larne	L 2-3	53.5	1097	1148	51.43%	15.26%	33.31%	+0.14	-16.7	0
1977-12-24	@ Ballymena United	W 3-2	53.5	1148	1097	33.31%	15.26%	51.43%	-0.14	+16.7	4
1977-12-24	Crusaders	W 4-1	38.8	1079	1177	45.01%	15.27%	39.72%	-0.11	+34.4	2
1977-12-24	@ Bangor	L 1-4	38.8	1177	1079	39.72%	15.27%	45.01%	+0.11	-34.4	2
1977-12-24	Glenavon	L 0-1	38.6	1093	1248	36.98%	15.24%	47.78%	-0.41	-14.0	4
1977-12-24	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	38.6	1248	1093	47.78%	15.24%	36.98%	+0.41	+14.0	8
1977-12-24	Coleraine	W 4-2	43.5	1438	1361	65.79%	15.15%	19.06%	+0.81	+11.4	10
1977-12-24	@ Linfield	L 2-4	43.5	1361	1438	19.06%	15.15%	65.79%	-0.81	-11.4	8
1977-12-24	Glentoran	L 0-5	27.9	1131	1426	20.51%	15.04%	64.44%	-1.14	-36.6	3
1977-12-24	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 5-0	27.9	1426	1131	64.44%	15.04%	20.51%	+1.14	+36.6	10
1977-12-24	Ards	W 3-1	34.7	1277	1169	68.49%	15.10%	16.41%	+0.98	+11.1	6
1977-12-24	@ Portadown	L 1-3	34.7	1169	1277	16.41%	15.10%	68.49%	-0.98	-11.1	3
1977-12-26	Bangor	L 0-2	42.6	1158	1113	62.60%	15.20%	22.20%	+0.64	-42.6	3
1977-12-26	@ Ards	W 2-0	42.6	1113	1158	22.20%	15.20%	62.60%	-0.64	+42.6	4
1977-12-26	Portadown	W 3-1	39.2	1262	1288	54.56%	15.26%	30.18%	+0.27	+19.2	10
1977-12-26	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	39.2	1288	1262	30.18%	15.26%	54.56%	-0.27	-19.2	6
1977-12-26	Linfield	L 2-3	62.6	1463	1450	59.26%	15.23%	25.52%	+0.48	-19.1	10
1977-12-26	@ Glentoran	W 3-2	62.6	1450	1463	25.52%	15.23%	59.26%	-0.48	+19.1	12
1977-12-27	Ballymena United	W 3-0	23.5	1350	1080	78.12%	14.71%	7.18%	+1.83	+8.4	10
1977-12-27	@ Coleraine	L 0-3	23.5	1080	1350	7.18%	14.71%	78.12%	-1.83	-8.4	0
1977-12-27	Lisburn Distillery	L 1-2	51.3	1142	1095	62.91%	15.19%	21.90%	+0.66	-21.4	2
1977-12-27	@ Crusaders	W 2-1	51.3	1095	1142	21.90%	15.19%	62.91%	-0.66	+21.4	5
1977-12-27	Cliftonville	W 3-2	43.6	1164	1079	66.48%	15.14%	18.38%	+0.85	+6.7	6
1977-12-27	@ Larne	L 2-3	43.6	1079	1164	18.38%	15.14%	66.48%	-0.85	-6.7	4
1977-12-31	Linfield	L 0-3	25.4	1072	1469	12.47%	14.79%	72.74%	-1.68	-14.3	0
1977-12-31	@ Ballymena United	W 3-0	25.4	1469	1072	72.74%	14.79%	12.47%	+1.68	+14.3	14
1977-12-31	Lisburn Distillery	L 0-1	46.1	1156	1116	62.11%	15.20%	22.68%	+0.62	-22.4	4
1977-12-31	@ Bangor	W 1-0	46.1	1116	1156	22.68%	15.20%	62.11%	-0.62	+22.4	7
1977-12-31	Portadown	W 2-1	48.5	1073	1269	31.45%	15.20%	53.35%	-0.63	+18.2	6
1977-12-31	@ Cliftonville	L 1-2	48.5	1269	1073	53.35%	15.20%	31.45%	+0.63	-18.2	6
1977-12-31	Ards	L 1-2	50.0	1121	1115	58.40%	15.23%	26.37%	+0.44	-19.9	2
1977-12-31	@ Crusaders	W 2-1	50.0	1115	1121	26.37%	15.23%	58.40%	-0.44	+19.9	5
1977-12-31	Coleraine	W 2-0	36.0	1281	1358	47.94%	15.27%	36.80%	+0.00	+26.3	12
1977-12-31	@ Glenavon	L 0-2	36.0	1358	1281	36.80%	15.27%	47.94%	+0.00	-26.3	10
1977-12-31	Larne	W 1-0	30.4	1444	1171	78.25%	14.70%	7.06%	+1.84	+3.0	12
1977-12-31	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	30.4	1171	1444	7.06%	14.70%	78.25%	-1.84	-3.0	6
1978-01-02	Glenavon	W 2-0	39.1	1135	1308	34.57%	15.22%	50.20%	-0.50	+34.5	7
1978-01-02	@ Ards	L 0-2	39.1	1308	1135	50.20%	15.22%	34.57%	+0.50	-34.5	12
1978-01-02	Glentoran	D 1-1	58.5	1332	1447	42.55%	15.26%	42.19%	-0.20	-0.0	11
1978-01-02	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	58.5	1447	1332	42.19%	15.26%	42.55%	+0.20	+0.0	13
1978-01-02	Crusaders	L 0-1	46.9	1168	1101	64.82%	15.17%	20.01%	+0.76	-23.4	6
1978-01-02	@ Larne	W 1-0	46.9	1101	1168	20.01%	15.17%	64.82%	-0.76	+23.4	4
1978-01-02	Cliftonville	W 3-0	22.8	1483	1091	82.04%	14.26%	3.70%	+2.47	+4.4	16
1978-01-02	@ Linfield	L 0-3	22.8	1091	1483	3.70%	14.26%	82.04%	-2.47	-4.4	6
1978-01-02	Ballymena United	D 2-2	61.1	1139	1057	66.16%	15.15%	18.69%	+0.84	-3.1	8
1978-01-02	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 2-2	61.1	1057	1139	18.69%	15.15%	66.16%	-0.84	+3.1	1
1978-01-02	Bangor	W 1-0	32.2	1251	1134	69.21%	15.09%	15.70%	+1.03	+6.5	8
1978-01-02	@ Portadown	L 0-1	32.2	1134	1251	15.70%	15.09%	69.21%	-1.03	-6.5	4
1978-01-07	Cliftonville	L 1-2	48.8	1060	1086	54.59%	15.25%	30.15%	+0.27	-18.6	1
1978-01-07	@ Ballymena United	W 2-1	48.8	1086	1060	30.15%	15.25%	54.59%	-0.27	+18.6	8
1978-01-07	Linfield	D 1-1	56.5	1127	1488	14.99%	14.89%	70.12%	-1.49	+4.9	5
1978-01-07	@ Bangor	D 1-1	56.5	1488	1127	70.12%	14.89%	14.99%	+1.49	-4.9	17
1978-01-07	Larne	W 1-0	31.0	1332	1145	74.00%	14.94%	11.06%	+1.39	+4.7	13
1978-01-07	@ Coleraine	L 0-1	31.0	1145	1332	11.06%	14.94%	74.00%	-1.39	-4.7	6
1978-01-07	Glenavon	L 0-5	32.7	1124	1273	37.80%	15.24%	46.96%	-0.37	-63.0	4
1978-01-07	@ Crusaders	W 5-0	32.7	1273	1124	46.96%	15.24%	37.80%	+0.37	+63.0	14
1978-01-07	Ards	W 4-2	37.1	1447	1170	78.43%	14.68%	6.89%	+1.87	+4.3	15
1978-01-07	@ Glentoran	L 2-4	37.1	1170	1447	6.89%	14.68%	78.43%	-1.87	-4.3	7
1978-01-07	Lisburn Distillery	W 4-0	25.3	1257	1136	69.56%	15.08%	15.36%	+1.05	+22.8	10
1978-01-07	@ Portadown	L 0-4	25.3	1136	1257	15.36%	15.08%	69.56%	-1.05	-22.8	8
1978-01-14	Larne	W 1-0	34.7	1165	1140	60.59%	15.22%	24.19%	+0.54	+9.7	9
1978-01-14	@ Ards	L 0-1	34.7	1140	1165	24.19%	15.22%	60.59%	-0.54	-9.7	6
1978-01-14	Bangor	W 1-0	39.0	1042	1132	46.08%	15.27%	38.65%	-0.07	+14.6	3
1978-01-14	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	39.0	1132	1042	38.65%	15.27%	46.08%	+0.07	-14.6	5
1978-01-14	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-2	46.4	1105	1113	56.84%	15.24%	27.92%	+0.37	+9.8	10
1978-01-14	@ Cliftonville	L 2-3	46.4	1113	1105	27.92%	15.24%	56.84%	-0.37	-9.8	8
1978-01-14	Coleraine	D 1-1	55.6	1061	1336	22.47%	15.08%	62.45%	-1.04	+3.5	5
1978-01-14	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	55.6	1336	1061	62.45%	15.08%	22.47%	+1.04	-3.5	14
1978-01-14	Glentoran	W 2-1	48.4	1336	1451	42.56%	15.26%	42.18%	-0.20	+14.8	16
1978-01-14	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	48.4	1451	1336	42.18%	15.26%	42.56%	+0.20	-14.8	15
1978-01-14	Portadown	D 2-2	64.1	1483	1280	74.87%	14.90%	10.23%	+1.47	-4.4	18
1978-01-14	@ Linfield	D 2-2	64.1	1280	1483	10.23%	14.90%	74.87%	-1.47	+4.4	11
1978-01-21	Cliftonville	D 1-1	55.4	1117	1115	58.03%	15.24%	26.74%	+0.42	-2.7	6
1978-01-21	@ Bangor	D 1-1	55.4	1115	1117	26.74%	15.24%	58.03%	-0.42	+2.7	11
1978-01-21	Ards	W 2-0	28.0	1333	1175	72.16%	15.01%	12.83%	+1.24	+10.2	16
1978-01-21	@ Coleraine	L 0-2	28.0	1175	1333	12.83%	15.01%	72.16%	-1.24	-10.2	9
1978-01-21	Crusaders	W 4-1	28.3	1436	1065	81.51%	14.34%	4.14%	+2.36	+4.1	17
1978-01-21	@ Glentoran	L 1-4	28.3	1065	1436	4.14%	14.34%	81.51%	-2.36	-4.1	5
1978-01-21	Glenavon	W 2-0	41.0	1130	1351	28.48%	15.17%	56.35%	-0.75	+38.4	8
1978-01-21	@ Larne	L 0-2	41.0	1351	1130	56.35%	15.17%	28.48%	+0.75	-38.4	16
1978-01-21	Linfield	L 1-4	31.7	1103	1478	13.93%	14.85%	71.22%	-1.57	-13.4	8
1978-01-21	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 4-1	31.7	1478	1103	71.22%	14.85%	13.93%	+1.57	+13.4	20
1978-01-21	Ballymena United	W 3-0	23.9	1285	1056	76.24%	14.83%	8.93%	+1.61	+10.4	13
1978-01-21	@ Portadown	L 0-3	23.9	1056	1285	8.93%	14.83%	76.24%	-1.61	-10.4	3
1978-01-28	Lisburn Distillery	L 1-2	52.1	1165	1090	65.60%	15.16%	19.24%	+0.80	-22.3	9
1978-01-28	@ Ards	W 2-1	52.1	1090	1165	19.24%	15.16%	65.60%	-0.80	+22.3	10
1978-01-28	Portadown	D 3-3	67.0	1343	1295	62.97%	15.19%	21.84%	+0.66	-2.2	17
1978-01-28	@ Coleraine	D 3-3	67.0	1295	1343	21.84%	15.19%	62.97%	-0.66	+2.2	14
1978-01-28	Cliftonville	D 2-2	61.1	1061	1118	50.64%	15.27%	34.10%	+0.11	-1.0	6
1978-01-28	@ Crusaders	D 2-2	61.1	1118	1061	34.10%	15.27%	50.64%	-0.11	+1.0	12
1978-01-28	Ballymena United	W 2-1	34.6	1313	1046	77.99%	14.72%	7.29%	+1.81	+2.9	18
1978-01-28	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	34.6	1046	1313	7.29%	14.72%	77.99%	-1.81	-3.0	3
1978-01-28	Bangor	W 6-1	26.6	1441	1115	80.17%	14.52%	5.31%	+2.12	+8.4	19
1978-01-28	@ Glentoran	L 1-6	26.6	1115	1441	5.31%	14.52%	80.17%	-2.12	-8.4	6
1978-01-28	Linfield	L 1-2	39.2	1169	1492	17.98%	14.98%	67.04%	-1.29	-6.9	8
1978-01-28	@ Larne	W 2-1	39.2	1492	1169	67.04%	14.98%	17.98%	+1.29	+6.9	22
1978-02-11	Ards	L 1-3	43.0	1043	1142	44.78%	15.27%	39.96%	-0.12	-27.0	3
1978-02-11	@ Ballymena United	W 3-1	43.0	1142	1043	39.96%	15.27%	44.78%	+0.12	+27.0	11
1978-02-11	Coleraine	W 1-0	45.1	1106	1341	26.86%	15.15%	57.99%	-0.83	+20.9	8
1978-02-11	@ Bangor	L 0-1	45.1	1341	1106	57.99%	15.15%	26.86%	+0.83	-20.9	17
1978-02-11	Glentoran	W 3-1	50.5	1119	1449	17.35%	14.97%	67.68%	-1.33	+39.8	14
1978-02-11	@ Cliftonville	L 1-3	50.5	1449	1119	67.68%	14.97%	17.35%	+1.33	-39.8	19
1978-02-11	Crusaders	W 3-1	30.7	1499	1060	83.07%	14.06%	2.87%	+2.72	+2.0	24
1978-02-11	@ Linfield	L 1-3	30.7	1060	1499	2.87%	14.06%	83.07%	-2.72	-2.0	6
1978-02-11	Larne	D 2-2	61.5	1297	1162	70.59%	15.05%	14.36%	+1.12	-3.8	15
1978-02-11	@ Portadown	D 2-2	61.5	1162	1297	14.36%	15.05%	70.59%	-1.12	+3.8	9
1978-02-18	Linfield	L 0-1	34.0	1169	1501	17.29%	14.97%	67.74%	-1.33	-7.1	11
1978-02-18	@ Ards	W 1-0	34.0	1501	1169	67.74%	14.97%	17.29%	+1.33	+7.1	26
1978-02-18	Cliftonville	L 1-2	54.4	1320	1158	72.40%	15.00%	12.61%	+1.26	-24.7	17
1978-02-18	@ Coleraine	W 2-1	54.4	1158	1320	12.61%	15.00%	72.40%	-1.26	+24.7	16
1978-02-18	Portadown	W 2-0	41.3	1058	1294	26.71%	15.15%	58.14%	-0.83	+39.5	8
1978-02-18	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	41.3	1294	1058	58.14%	15.15%	26.71%	+0.83	-39.5	15
1978-02-18	Bangor	D 1-1	55.7	1316	1127	74.07%	14.94%	11.00%	+1.40	-5.7	19
1978-02-18	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	55.7	1127	1316	11.00%	14.94%	74.07%	-1.40	+5.7	9
1978-02-18	Lisburn Distillery	W 4-0	27.0	1165	1112	63.53%	15.19%	21.28%	+0.69	+30.8	11
1978-02-18	@ Larne	L 0-4	27.0	1112	1165	21.28%	15.19%	63.53%	-0.69	-30.8	10
1978-03-04	Crusaders	W 2-1	43.7	1016	1097	47.33%	15.27%	37.41%	-0.02	+13.4	5
1978-03-04	@ Ballymena United	L 1-2	43.7	1097	1016	37.41%	15.27%	47.33%	+0.02	-13.4	8
1978-03-04	Larne	L 2-3	53.1	1133	1196	49.78%	15.27%	34.95%	+0.08	-16.2	9
1978-03-04	@ Bangor	W 3-2	53.1	1196	1133	34.95%	15.27%	49.78%	-0.08	+16.2	13
1978-03-04	Ards	D 1-1	55.5	1183	1162	60.10%	15.22%	24.68%	+0.52	-3.1	17
1978-03-04	@ Cliftonville	D 1-1	55.5	1162	1183	24.68%	15.22%	60.10%	-0.52	+3.1	12
1978-03-04	Glenavon	W 4-2	41.3	1508	1310	74.62%	14.91%	10.47%	+1.45	+6.5	28
1978-03-04	@ Linfield	L 2-4	41.3	1310	1508	10.47%	14.91%	74.62%	-1.45	-6.5	19
1978-03-04	Coleraine	W 3-2	54.8	1081	1295	29.26%	15.18%	55.56%	-0.72	+18.0	12
1978-03-04	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 2-3	54.8	1295	1081	55.56%	15.18%	29.26%	+0.72	-18.0	17
1978-03-04	Glentoran	L 1-4	39.4	1254	1409	36.93%	15.24%	47.84%	-0.41	-32.3	15
1978-03-04	@ Portadown	W 4-1	39.4	1409	1254	47.84%	15.24%	36.93%	+0.41	+32.3	21
1978-03-07	Ballymena United	W 2-0	24.8	1442	1029	82.50%	14.18%	3.32%	+2.58	+2.7	23
1978-03-07	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	24.8	1029	1442	3.32%	14.18%	82.50%	-2.58	-2.7	5
1978-03-11	Portadown	W 3-2	48.4	1165	1222	50.71%	15.27%	34.03%	+0.11	+11.7	14
1978-03-11	@ Ards	L 2-3	48.4	1222	1165	34.03%	15.27%	50.71%	-0.11	-11.7	15
1978-03-11	Linfield	L 0-4	31.9	1277	1514	26.60%	15.15%	58.25%	-0.84	-37.6	17
1978-03-11	@ Coleraine	W 4-0	31.9	1514	1277	58.25%	15.15%	26.60%	+0.84	+37.6	30
1978-03-11	Bangor	W 2-0	33.1	1084	1117	53.74%	15.26%	31.00%	+0.24	+22.7	10
1978-03-11	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	33.1	1117	1084	31.00%	15.26%	53.74%	-0.24	-22.7	9
1978-03-11	Cliftonville	D 1-1	55.8	1303	1180	69.66%	15.08%	15.26%	+1.06	-4.9	20
1978-03-11	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	55.8	1180	1303	15.26%	15.08%	69.66%	-1.06	+4.9	18
1978-03-11	Lisburn Distillery	D 2-2	61.9	1444	1099	80.77%	14.45%	4.78%	+2.22	-5.3	24
1978-03-11	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	61.9	1099	1444	4.78%	14.45%	80.77%	-2.22	+5.3	13
1978-03-11	Ballymena United	W 2-1	35.7	1212	1027	73.92%	14.94%	11.14%	+1.39	+4.4	15
1978-03-11	@ Larne	L 1-2	35.7	1027	1212	11.14%	14.94%	73.92%	-1.39	-4.4	5
1978-03-18	Glenavon	L 1-2	42.1	1104	1298	31.75%	15.20%	53.05%	-0.61	-11.6	13
1978-03-18	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	42.1	1298	1104	53.05%	15.20%	31.75%	+0.61	+11.6	22
1978-03-25	Ards	L 1-2	46.6	1094	1177	47.08%	15.27%	37.65%	-0.03	-16.3	9
1978-03-25	@ Bangor	W 2-1	46.6	1177	1094	37.65%	15.27%	47.08%	+0.03	+16.3	16
1978-03-25	Larne	L 0-1	43.8	1185	1217	53.86%	15.26%	30.88%	+0.24	-19.5	18
1978-03-25	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	43.8	1217	1185	30.88%	15.26%	53.86%	-0.24	+19.5	17
1978-03-25	Glentoran	L 1-2	62.7	1552	1439	68.84%	15.10%	16.07%	+1.00	-23.4	30
1978-03-25	@ Linfield	W 2-1	62.7	1439	1552	16.07%	15.10%	68.84%	-1.00	+23.4	26
1978-03-25	Crusaders	W 5-2	38.9	1093	1107	56.09%	15.25%	28.67%	+0.34	+22.5	15
1978-03-25	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 2-5	38.9	1107	1093	28.67%	15.25%	56.09%	-0.34	-22.5	10
1978-03-25	Glenavon	W 3-1	42.0	1210	1310	44.70%	15.27%	40.04%	-0.12	+24.5	17
1978-03-25	@ Portadown	L 1-3	42.0	1310	1210	40.04%	15.27%	44.70%	+0.12	-24.5	22
1978-03-27	Crusaders	W 3-1	34.4	1193	1084	68.55%	15.10%	16.35%	+0.98	+11.0	18
1978-03-27	@ Ards	L 1-3	34.4	1084	1193	16.35%	15.10%	68.55%	-0.98	-11.0	10
1978-03-27	Glenavon	W 3-2	48.4	1240	1286	52.08%	15.26%	32.66%	+0.17	+11.3	19
1978-03-27	@ Coleraine	L 2-3	48.4	1286	1240	32.66%	15.26%	52.08%	-0.17	-11.3	22
1978-03-27	Cliftonville	D 2-2	61.3	1235	1165	65.02%	15.17%	19.81%	+0.77	-3.0	18
1978-03-27	@ Portadown	D 2-2	61.3	1165	1235	19.81%	15.17%	65.02%	-0.77	+3.0	19
1978-03-28	Glentoran	L 0-1	37.6	1236	1462	27.86%	15.16%	56.98%	-0.78	-11.0	17
1978-03-28	@ Larne	W 1-0	37.6	1462	1236	56.98%	15.16%	27.86%	+0.78	+10.9	28
1978-03-28	Ballymena United	W 2-1	33.2	1528	1022	84.27%	13.75%	1.98%	+3.07	+0.8	32
1978-03-28	@ Linfield	L 1-2	33.2	1022	1528	1.98%	13.75%	84.27%	-3.07	-0.8	5
1978-03-28	Bangor	L 0-3	39.8	1115	1078	61.87%	15.20%	22.92%	+0.60	-61.1	15
1978-03-28	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-0	39.8	1078	1115	22.92%	15.20%	61.87%	-0.60	+61.1	11
1978-04-01	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	38.8	1021	1054	53.76%	15.26%	30.98%	+0.24	+19.6	7
1978-04-01	@ Ballymena United	L 1-3	38.8	1054	1021	30.98%	15.26%	53.76%	-0.24	-19.6	15
1978-04-01	Portadown	W 2-1	44.3	1139	1232	45.74%	15.27%	39.00%	-0.08	+13.8	13
1978-04-01	@ Bangor	L 1-2	44.3	1232	1139	39.00%	15.27%	45.74%	+0.08	-13.8	18
1978-04-01	Linfield	L 1-3	35.8	1168	1529	14.98%	14.89%	70.13%	-1.49	-10.1	19
1978-04-01	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	35.8	1529	1168	70.13%	14.89%	14.98%	+1.49	+10.1	34
1978-04-01	Larne	W 1-0	41.7	1073	1225	37.30%	15.24%	47.46%	-0.39	+17.4	12
1978-04-01	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	41.7	1225	1073	47.46%	15.24%	37.30%	+0.39	-17.4	17
1978-04-01	Ards	W 5-2	36.5	1274	1204	65.10%	15.16%	19.73%	+0.78	+16.1	24
1978-04-01	@ Glenavon	L 2-5	36.5	1204	1274	19.73%	15.16%	65.10%	-0.78	-16.1	18
1978-04-01	Coleraine	W 4-1	31.7	1473	1251	75.94%	14.85%	9.22%	+1.58	+9.1	30
1978-04-01	@ Glentoran	L 1-4	31.7	1251	1473	9.22%	14.85%	75.94%	-1.58	-9.1	19
1978-04-08	Glentoran	D 1-1	56.9	1188	1482	20.59%	15.05%	64.36%	-1.14	+3.8	19
1978-04-08	@ Ards	D 1-1	56.9	1482	1188	64.36%	15.05%	20.59%	+1.14	-3.8	31
1978-04-08	Ballymena United	W 3-0	25.9	1158	1041	69.19%	15.09%	15.72%	+1.03	+17.8	21
1978-04-08	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	25.9	1041	1158	15.72%	15.09%	69.19%	-1.03	-17.8	7
1978-04-08	Crusaders	W 1-0	30.6	1290	1090	74.74%	14.91%	10.36%	+1.46	+4.4	26
1978-04-08	@ Glenavon	L 0-1	30.6	1090	1290	10.36%	14.91%	74.74%	-1.46	-4.4	12
1978-04-08	Coleraine	W 4-3	51.1	1208	1242	53.62%	15.26%	31.12%	+0.23	+10.5	19
1978-04-08	@ Larne	L 3-4	51.1	1242	1208	31.12%	15.26%	53.62%	-0.23	-10.5	19
1978-04-08	Bangor	W 2-0	26.4	1539	1153	81.89%	14.28%	3.82%	+2.44	+3.1	36
1978-04-08	@ Linfield	L 0-2	26.4	1153	1539	3.82%	14.28%	81.89%	-2.44	-3.1	13
1978-04-08	Portadown	D 1-1	55.4	1034	1218	33.16%	15.21%	51.63%	-0.56	+1.5	16
1978-04-08	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	55.4	1218	1034	51.63%	15.21%	33.16%	+0.56	-1.5	19
1978-04-13	Coleraine	W 2-0	40.2	1023	1231	30.00%	15.19%	54.81%	-0.69	+37.4	9
1978-04-13	@ Ballymena United	L 0-2	40.2	1231	1023	54.81%	15.19%	30.00%	+0.69	-37.4	19
1978-04-15	Ballymena United	D 2-2	61.1	1150	1061	66.84%	15.14%	18.02%	+0.88	-3.2	14
1978-04-15	@ Bangor	D 2-2	61.1	1061	1150	18.02%	15.14%	66.84%	-0.88	+3.2	10
1978-04-15	Crusaders	L 1-2	53.0	1194	1086	68.44%	15.10%	16.45%	+0.98	-23.3	19
1978-04-15	@ Coleraine	W 2-1	53.0	1086	1194	16.45%	15.10%	68.44%	-0.98	+23.3	14
1978-04-15	Glenavon	W 2-0	30.1	1479	1295	73.80%	14.95%	11.25%	+1.38	+9.0	33
1978-04-15	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	30.1	1295	1479	11.25%	14.95%	73.80%	-1.38	-9.0	26
1978-04-15	Ards	W 3-1	36.9	1219	1192	60.72%	15.22%	24.07%	+0.55	+15.7	21
1978-04-15	@ Larne	L 1-3	36.9	1192	1219	24.07%	15.22%	60.72%	-0.55	-15.7	19
1978-04-15	Cliftonville	L 1-3	41.2	1036	1176	39.00%	15.25%	45.75%	-0.33	-24.0	16
1978-04-15	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	41.2	1176	1036	45.75%	15.25%	39.00%	+0.33	+24.0	23
1978-04-15	Linfield	L 1-2	40.5	1216	1542	17.71%	14.98%	67.31%	-1.31	-6.8	19
1978-04-15	@ Portadown	W 2-1	40.5	1542	1216	67.31%	14.98%	17.71%	+1.31	+6.8	38
1978-04-22	Coleraine	W 3-0	29.3	1176	1171	58.40%	15.23%	26.36%	+0.44	+28.6	21
1978-04-22	@ Ards	L 0-3	29.3	1171	1176	26.36%	15.23%	58.40%	-0.44	-28.6	19
1978-04-22	Portadown	L 1-3	41.1	1064	1209	38.24%	15.25%	46.51%	-0.36	-23.6	10
1978-04-22	@ Ballymena United	W 3-1	41.1	1209	1064	46.51%	15.25%	38.24%	+0.36	+23.6	21
1978-04-22	Bangor	W 2-0	30.3	1200	1146	63.54%	15.19%	21.28%	+0.69	+16.2	25
1978-04-22	@ Cliftonville	L 0-2	30.3	1146	1200	21.28%	15.19%	63.54%	-0.69	-16.2	14
1978-04-22	Glentoran	D 3-3	66.8	1109	1488	13.73%	14.84%	71.42%	-1.58	+3.2	15
1978-04-22	@ Crusaders	D 3-3	66.8	1488	1109	71.42%	14.84%	13.73%	+1.58	-3.2	34
1978-04-22	Larne	W 2-1	39.4	1286	1234	63.31%	15.19%	21.50%	+0.68	+8.2	28
1978-04-22	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	39.4	1234	1286	21.50%	15.19%	63.31%	-0.68	-8.2	21
1978-04-22	Lisburn Distillery	W 7-1	25.0	1549	1012	84.73%	13.60%	1.67%	+3.23	+3.1	40
1978-04-22	@ Linfield	L 1-7	25.0	1012	1549	1.67%	13.60%	84.73%	-3.23	-3.1	16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1978-02-18	12.61%	Cliftonville	1158	2	@ Coleraine	1320	1
2	1977-12-17	15.29%	Cliftonville	1070	2	@ Ards	1193	1
3	1978-03-25	16.07%	Glentoran	1439	2	@ Linfield	1552	1
4	1978-04-15	16.45%	Crusaders	1086	2	@ Coleraine	1194	1
5	1978-02-11	17.35%	@ Cliftonville	1119	3	Glentoran	1449	1
6	1978-01-28	19.24%	Lisburn Distillery	1090	2	@ Ards	1165	1
7	1978-01-02	20.01%	Crusaders	1101	1	@ Larne	1168	0
8	1977-12-27	21.90%	Lisburn Distillery	1095	2	@ Crusaders	1142	1
9	1977-12-26	22.20%	Bangor	1113	2	@ Ards	1158	0
10	1977-12-31	22.68%	Lisburn Distillery	1116	1	@ Bangor	1156	0
11	1978-03-28	22.92%	Bangor	1078	3	@ Lisburn Distillery	1115	0
12	1977-12-03	23.10%	Portadown	1203	4	@ Larne	1239	0
13	1977-12-26	25.52%	Linfield	1450	3	@ Glentoran	1463	2
14	1977-12-31	26.37%	Ards	1115	2	@ Crusaders	1121	1
15	1978-02-18	26.71%	@ Crusaders	1058	2	Portadown	1294	0
16	1978-02-11	26.86%	@ Bangor	1106	1	Coleraine	1341	0
17	1978-01-21	28.48%	@ Larne	1130	2	Glenavon	1351	0
18	1978-03-04	29.26%	@ Lisburn Distillery	1081	3	Coleraine	1295	2
19	1978-04-13	30.00%	@ Ballymena United	1023	2	Coleraine	1231	0
20	1978-01-07	30.15%	Cliftonville	1086	2	@ Ballymena United	1060	1
21	1978-03-25	30.88%	Larne	1217	1	@ Cliftonville	1185	0
22	1977-12-15	30.96%	Coleraine	1335	1	@ Portadown	1302	0
23	1977-12-31	31.45%	@ Cliftonville	1073	2	Portadown	1269	1
24	1977-12-24	33.31%	Larne	1148	3	@ Ballymena United	1097	2
25	1977-12-17	34.41%	Linfield	1373	4	@ Glenavon	1314	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1977-12-03	79.58	Portadown	4	1203	23.10%	@ Larne	0	1239	61.69%	15.21%
2	1977-12-17	65.57	Linfield	4	1373	34.41%	@ Glenavon	0	1314	50.32%	15.27%
3	1978-01-07	63.03	Glenavon	5	1273	46.96%	@ Crusaders	0	1124	37.80%	15.24%
4	1978-03-28	61.09	Bangor	3	1078	22.92%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	1115	61.87%	15.20%
5	1977-12-03	47.36	Linfield	3	1319	37.56%	@ Crusaders	0	1236	47.17%	15.27%
6	1977-11-26	42.64	Glentoran	4	1349	54.13%	@ Bangor	0	1146	30.68%	15.19%
7	1977-12-26	42.56	Bangor	2	1113	22.20%	@ Ards	0	1158	62.60%	15.20%
8	1978-02-11	39.83	@ Cliftonville	3	1119	17.35%	Glentoran	1	1449	67.68%	14.97%
9	1978-02-18	39.54	@ Crusaders	2	1058	26.71%	Portadown	0	1294	58.14%	15.15%
10	1978-01-21	38.38	@ Larne	2	1130	28.48%	Glenavon	0	1351	56.35%	15.17%
11	1978-03-11	37.58	Linfield	4	1514	58.25%	@ Coleraine	0	1277	26.60%	15.15%
12	1978-04-13	37.39	@ Ballymena United	2	1023	30.00%	Coleraine	0	1231	54.81%	15.19%
13	1977-12-24	36.62	Glentoran	5	1426	64.44%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	1131	20.51%	15.04%
14	1978-01-02	34.47	@ Ards	2	1135	34.57%	Glenavon	0	1308	50.20%	15.22%
15	1977-12-24	34.44	@ Bangor	4	1079	45.01%	Crusaders	1	1177	39.72%	15.27%
16	1978-03-04	32.35	Glentoran	4	1409	47.84%	@ Portadown	1	1254	36.93%	15.24%
17	1978-02-18	30.79	@ Larne	4	1165	63.53%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1112	21.28%	15.19%
18	1978-04-22	28.58	@ Ards	3	1176	58.40%	Coleraine	0	1171	26.36%	15.23%
19	1978-02-11	26.98	Ards	3	1142	39.96%	@ Ballymena United	1	1043	44.78%	15.27%
20	1977-12-10	26.61	Coleraine	4	1308	55.30%	@ Cliftonville	1	1096	29.52%	15.18%
21	1977-12-31	26.34	@ Glenavon	2	1281	47.94%	Coleraine	0	1358	36.80%	15.27%
22	1978-02-18	24.72	Cliftonville	2	1158	12.61%	@ Coleraine	1	1320	72.40%	15.00%
23	1978-03-25	24.52	@ Portadown	3	1210	44.70%	Glenavon	1	1310	40.04%	15.27%
24	1978-04-15	23.97	Cliftonville	3	1176	45.75%	@ Lisburn Distillery	1	1036	39.00%	15.25%
25	1977-12-17	23.73	Cliftonville	2	1070	15.29%	@ Ards	1	1193	69.64%	15.08%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1978-01-28	67.0	@ Coleraine	3	1343	62.97%	Portadown	3	1295	21.84%	15.19%
2	1978-04-22	66.8	@ Crusaders	3	1109	13.73%	Glentoran	3	1488	71.42%	14.84%
3	1978-01-14	64.1	@ Linfield	2	1483	74.87%	Portadown	2	1280	10.23%	14.90%
4	1978-03-25	62.7	Glentoran	2	1439	16.07%	@ Linfield	1	1552	68.84%	15.10%
5	1977-12-26	62.6	Linfield	3	1450	25.52%	@ Glentoran	2	1463	59.26%	15.23%
6	1978-03-11	61.9	@ Glentoran	2	1444	80.77%	Lisburn Distillery	2	1099	4.78%	14.45%
7	1978-02-11	61.5	@ Portadown	2	1297	70.59%	Larne	2	1162	14.36%	15.05%
8	1978-03-27	61.3	@ Portadown	2	1235	65.02%	Cliftonville	2	1165	19.81%	15.17%
9	1977-11-26	61.2	@ Lisburn Distillery	2	1131	50.28%	Ards	2	1191	34.45%	15.27%
10	1978-01-02	61.1	@ Lisburn Distillery	2	1139	66.16%	Ballymena United	2	1057	18.69%	15.15%
11	1978-01-28	61.1	@ Crusaders	2	1061	50.64%	Cliftonville	2	1118	34.10%	15.27%
12	1978-04-15	61.1	@ Bangor	2	1150	66.84%	Ballymena United	2	1061	18.02%	15.14%
13	1978-01-02	58.5	@ Coleraine	1	1332	42.55%	Glentoran	1	1447	42.19%	15.26%
14	1978-04-08	56.9	@ Ards	1	1188	20.59%	Glentoran	1	1482	64.36%	15.05%
15	1978-01-07	56.5	@ Bangor	1	1127	14.99%	Linfield	1	1488	70.12%	14.89%
16	1978-03-11	55.8	@ Glenavon	1	1303	69.66%	Cliftonville	1	1180	15.26%	15.08%
17	1978-02-18	55.7	@ Glenavon	1	1316	74.07%	Bangor	1	1127	11.00%	14.94%
18	1978-01-14	55.6	@ Crusaders	1	1061	22.47%	Coleraine	1	1336	62.45%	15.08%
19	1978-03-04	55.5	@ Cliftonville	1	1183	60.10%	Ards	1	1162	24.68%	15.22%
20	1978-01-21	55.4	@ Bangor	1	1117	58.03%	Cliftonville	1	1115	26.74%	15.24%
21	1978-04-08	55.4	@ Lisburn Distillery	1	1034	33.16%	Portadown	1	1218	51.63%	15.21%
22	1978-03-04	54.8	@ Lisburn Distillery	3	1081	29.26%	Coleraine	2	1295	55.56%	15.18%
23	1978-02-18	54.4	Cliftonville	2	1158	12.61%	@ Coleraine	1	1320	72.40%	15.00%
24	1977-12-24	53.5	Larne	3	1148	33.31%	@ Ballymena United	2	1097	51.43%	15.26%
25	1977-12-17	53.3	Cliftonville	2	1070	15.29%	@ Ards	1	1193	69.64%	15.08%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1978-01-02	22.8	@ Linfield	3	1483	82.04%	Cliftonville	0	1091	3.70%	14.26%
2	1977-12-03	23.4	@ Glentoran	5	1392	78.64%	Cliftonville	0	1109	6.70%	14.66%
3	1977-12-27	23.5	@ Coleraine	3	1350	78.12%	Ballymena United	0	1080	7.18%	14.71%
4	1978-01-21	23.9	@ Portadown	3	1285	76.24%	Ballymena United	0	1056	8.93%	14.83%
5	1978-03-07	24.8	@ Glentoran	2	1442	82.50%	Ballymena United	0	1029	3.32%	14.18%
6	1978-04-22	25.0	@ Linfield	7	1549	84.73%	Lisburn Distillery	1	1012	1.67%	13.60%
7	1978-01-07	25.3	@ Portadown	4	1257	69.56%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1136	15.36%	15.08%
8	1977-12-31	25.4	Linfield	3	1469	72.74%	@ Ballymena United	0	1072	12.47%	14.79%
9	1978-04-08	25.9	@ Cliftonville	3	1158	69.19%	Ballymena United	0	1041	15.72%	15.09%
10	1978-04-08	26.4	@ Linfield	2	1539	81.89%	Bangor	0	1153	3.82%	14.28%
11	1978-01-28	26.6	@ Glentoran	6	1441	80.17%	Bangor	1	1115	5.31%	14.52%
12	1977-12-10	26.8	@ Portadown	3	1283	67.25%	Crusaders	0	1189	17.62%	15.13%
13	1978-02-18	27.0	@ Larne	4	1165	63.53%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1112	21.28%	15.19%
14	1977-12-24	27.9	Glentoran	5	1426	64.44%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	1131	20.51%	15.04%
15	1978-01-21	28.0	@ Coleraine	2	1333	72.16%	Ards	0	1175	12.83%	15.01%
16	1978-01-21	28.3	@ Glentoran	4	1436	81.51%	Crusaders	1	1065	4.14%	14.34%
17	1978-04-22	29.3	@ Ards	3	1176	58.40%	Coleraine	0	1171	26.36%	15.23%
18	1978-04-15	30.1	@ Glentoran	2	1479	73.80%	Glenavon	0	1295	11.25%	14.95%
19	1977-11-26	30.2	Glentoran	4	1349	54.13%	@ Bangor	0	1146	30.68%	15.19%
20	1978-04-22	30.3	@ Cliftonville	2	1200	63.54%	Bangor	0	1146	21.28%	15.19%
21	1977-12-31	30.4	@ Glentoran	1	1444	78.25%	Larne	0	1171	7.06%	14.70%
22	1978-04-08	30.6	@ Glenavon	1	1290	74.74%	Crusaders	0	1090	10.36%	14.91%
23	1977-12-10	30.7	Glentoran	2	1404	63.32%	@ Ballymena United	0	1121	21.62%	15.07%
24	1978-02-11	30.7	@ Linfield	3	1499	83.07%	Crusaders	1	1060	2.87%	14.06%
25	1977-12-03	30.8	@ Glenavon	4	1289	72.24%	Lisburn Distillery	1	1130	12.76%	15.00%