1978-79 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ards

4.30 points above expected

27 points · 22.70 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lisburn Distillery

6.50 points below expected

7 points · 13.50 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Linfield	22	14	6	2	34	46	21	+25	32.69	+1.31
2	Glenavon	22	11	6	5	28	42	30	+12	25.34	+2.66
3	Ards	22	11	5	6	27	47	34	+13	22.70	+4.30
4	Glentoran	22	9	8	5	26	36	33	+3	29.45	-3.45
5	Portadown	22	10	5	7	25	35	27	+8	23.55	+1.45
6	Larne	22	10	4	8	24	42	35	+7	23.83	+0.17
7	Cliftonville	22	7	7	8	21	31	29	+2	21.88	-0.88
8	Coleraine	22	7	6	9	20	29	30	-1	19.61	+0.39
9	Crusaders	22	6	8	8	20	30	33	-3	17.54	+2.46
10	Bangor	22	5	8	9	18	28	40	-12	18.75	-0.75
11	Ballymena United	22	4	6	12	14	25	46	-21	15.16	-1.16
12	Lisburn Distillery	22	2	3	17	7	19	52	-33	13.50	-6.50

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Ards	27	22.70	+4.30
2	Glenavon	28	25.34	+2.66
3	Crusaders	20	17.54	+2.46
4	Portadown	25	23.55	+1.45
5	Linfield	34	32.69	+1.31

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Lisburn Distillery	7	13.50	-6.50
2	Glentoran	26	29.45	-3.45
3	Ballymena United	14	15.16	-1.16
4	Cliftonville	21	21.88	-0.88
5	Bangor	18	18.75	-0.75

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Glenavon	5	Feb 17 – Mar 24	1 in 100
2	Portadown	4	Dec 23 – Jan 20	1 in 92
3	Ballymena United	2	Nov 25 – Dec 9	1 in 27
4	Lisburn Distillery	2	Jan 24 – Jan 27	1 in 18
5	Coleraine	3	Jan 1 – Jan 20	1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Glenavon	4	Dec 23 – Jan 13	1 in 184
2	Coleraine	4	Apr 7 – Apr 21	1 in 100
3	Lisburn Distillery	7	Dec 2 – Jan 20	1 in 40
4	Larne	3	Jan 27 – Feb 10	1 in 20
5	Ballymena United	4	Jan 6 – Feb 10	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Crusaders	9	Feb 24 – Apr 21	1 in 279
2	Glenavon	11	Jan 20 – Apr 7	1 in 48
3	Ards	8	Nov 25 – Jan 24	1 in 46
4	Ballymena United	4	Apr 7 – Apr 21	1 in 14
5	Lisburn Distillery	3	Jan 24 – Feb 6	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Glentoran	7	Mar 10 – Apr 21	1 in 138
2	Ballymena United	16	Dec 16 – Mar 31	1 in 48
3	Portadown	7	Feb 13 – Apr 7	1 in 15
4	Glenavon	4	Dec 23 – Jan 13	1 in 10
5	Lisburn Distillery	12	Feb 6 – Apr 21	1 in 10

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Linfield	1396	34	+10	9	7.1	+1.9
Glenavon	1238	28	-2	6	6.5	-0.5
Ards	1209	27	+22	7	6.2	+0.8
Glentoran	1299	26	-16	4	5.9	-1.9
Portadown	1203	25	+23	7	5.2	+1.8
Larne	1203	24	+6	6	5.0	+1.0
Cliftonville	1162	21	-4	4	4.6	-0.6
Crusaders	1108	20	+20	7	4.6	+2.4
Coleraine	1127	20	-28	1	4.8	-3.8
Bangor	1088	18	+1	4	3.4	+0.6
Ballymena United	1028	14	+16	6	3.7	+2.3
Lisburn Distillery	949	7	-46	0	3.5	-3.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ARD	BU	BAN	CLI	COL	CRU	GLE	GLE	LAR	LIN	LD	POR
Ards	—	1-1-0 3.91	1-0-1 3.28	1-0-1 2.84	1-1-0 3.19	1-0-1 3.50	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 1.67	1-1-0 2.59	1-0-1 1.43	2-0-0 4.00	1-1-0 2.62
Ballymena United	0-1-1 1.56	—	0-2-0 2.29	0-1-1 1.90	1-1-0 2.09	0-1-1 2.42	0-0-2 1.57	1-0-1 1.09	0-0-2 1.74	0-0-2 0.91	1-0-1 3.05	1-0-1 1.75
Bangor	1-0-1 2.16	0-2-0 3.14	—	0-1-1 2.18	1-1-0 2.58	1-1-0 2.83	1-0-1 1.85	0-1-1 1.36	0-0-2 2.01	0-1-1 1.07	1-1-0 3.33	0-0-2 2.16
Cliftonville	1-0-1 2.58	1-1-0 3.54	1-1-0 3.25	—	1-1-0 3.08	1-1-0 3.32	0-0-2 2.43	0-1-1 1.76	0-0-2 2.57	0-0-2 1.41	2-0-0 3.87	0-2-0 2.57
Coleraine	0-1-1 2.24	0-1-1 3.36	0-1-1 2.84	0-1-1 2.35	—	1-0-1 3.04	1-0-1 2.14	0-1-1 1.53	1-0-1 2.26	1-1-0 1.20	1-0-1 3.68	2-0-0 2.21
Crusaders	1-0-1 1.94	1-1-0 3.01	0-1-1 2.59	0-1-1 2.12	1-0-1 2.39	—	1-1-0 1.77	0-0-2 1.31	0-2-0 1.89	0-1-1 1.11	2-0-0 3.50	0-1-1 2.14
Glenavon	1-0-1 2.87	2-0-0 3.90	1-0-1 3.60	2-0-0 2.99	1-0-1 3.30	0-1-1 3.69	—	1-1-0 2.01	2-0-0 2.82	0-2-0 1.62	1-1-0 4.19	0-1-1 3.20
Glentoran	1-1-0 3.78	1-0-1 4.45	1-1-0 4.14	1-1-0 3.69	1-1-0 3.95	2-0-0 4.19	0-1-1 3.43	—	0-1-1 3.59	0-1-1 2.18	1-1-0 4.55	1-0-1 3.56
Larne	0-1-1 2.84	2-0-0 3.72	2-0-0 3.43	2-0-0 2.86	1-0-1 3.17	0-2-0 3.55	0-0-2 2.60	1-1-0 1.86	—	0-0-2 1.52	2-0-0 3.93	0-0-2 2.93
Linfield	1-0-1 4.06	2-0-0 4.68	1-1-0 4.47	2-0-0 4.08	0-1-1 4.32	1-1-0 4.44	0-2-0 3.85	1-1-0 3.25	2-0-0 3.96	—	2-0-0 4.79	2-0-0 4.01
Lisburn Distillery	0-0-2 1.49	1-0-1 2.38	0-1-1 2.11	0-0-2 1.59	1-0-1 1.78	0-0-2 1.94	0-1-1 1.31	0-1-1 1.01	0-0-2 1.55	0-0-2 0.81	—	0-0-2 1.56
Portadown	0-1-1 2.80	1-0-1 3.71	2-0-0 3.28	0-2-0 2.86	0-0-2 3.22	1-1-0 3.29	1-1-0 2.23	1-0-1 1.89	2-0-0 2.50	0-0-2 1.47	2-0-0 3.91	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.85	+7.5
Allowed	0.78	-7.4
Differential	0.96	+4.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	8.33%	4.92%	6.82%	3.79%	0.38%	0.76%	25.00%
1	4.92%	10.61%	5.68%	4.92%	1.14%	1.14%	28.41%
2	6.82%	5.68%	6.06%	3.79%	0.76%	1.14%	24.24%
3	3.79%	4.92%	3.79%	1.52%	0.76%	0.38%	15.15%
4	0.38%	1.14%	0.76%	0.76%	0.76%	—	3.79%
5+	0.76%	1.14%	1.14%	0.38%	—	—	3.41%
Total	25.00%	28.41%	24.24%	15.15%	3.79%	3.41%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.55	+0.00
SD	1.32	1.32	1.85
CV	0.85	0.85	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
2	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	40.91%
4	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	22.73%	36.36%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.14	1.55	+0.59
SD	1.39	1.14	1.59
CV	0.65	0.74	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
1	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	40.91%
2	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	22.73%	22.73%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	2.09	-0.95
SD	1.21	1.66	2.13
CV	1.06	0.79	—
Max	5	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	31.82%
2	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	9.09%	40.91%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	18.18%	22.73%	22.73%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	1.82	-0.55
SD	0.88	1.65	1.68
CV	0.69	0.91	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	27.27%	22.73%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.32	+0.09
SD	1.30	1.21	1.93
CV	0.92	0.92	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	27.27%	27.27%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.36	-0.05
SD	1.39	1.09	1.86
CV	1.06	0.80	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
1	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	—	—	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	18.18%	31.82%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	1.50	-0.14
SD	1.33	1.41	1.98
CV	0.97	0.94	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	—	13.64%	—	—	—	4.55%	18.18%
2	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	27.27%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	45.45%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.36	+0.55
SD	1.54	1.29	1.90
CV	0.81	0.95	—
Max	6	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	31.82%
2	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	22.73%	36.36%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.50	+0.14
SD	1.22	1.34	1.49
CV	0.74	0.89	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	31.82%
2	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
3	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	36.36%	13.64%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.91	1.59	+0.32
SD	0.92	1.40	1.55
CV	0.48	0.88	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	—	—	—	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	40.91%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.09	0.95	+1.14
SD	1.44	0.95	1.42
CV	0.69	1.00	—
Max	6	3	+5
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	22.73%	13.64%	—	—	45.45%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	—	31.82%
2	—	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	18.18%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	4.55%	13.64%	40.91%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.86	2.36	-1.50
SD	1.04	1.14	1.41
CV	1.20	0.48	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	36.36%
1	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	—	13.64%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
Total	27.27%	45.45%	4.55%	22.73%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.23	+0.36
SD	1.65	1.11	1.92
CV	1.04	0.90	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Linfield	1396	34	32.69	+1.31	69.0%	24	27	30	33	35	37	41
Glentoran	1299	26	29.45	-3.45	28.0%	21	23	26	29	33	36	38
Glenavon	1238	28	25.34	+2.66	81.0%	14	19	23	25	28	31	35
Ards	1209	27	22.70	+4.30	89.0%	14	17	20	22	25	29	32
Larne	1203	24	23.83	+0.17	58.0%	13	17	21	24	26	31	34
Portadown	1203	25	23.55	+1.45	69.0%	12	17	21	23	26	30	35
Cliftonville	1162	21	21.88	-0.88	49.0%	13	16	19	22	24	27	31
Coleraine	1127	20	19.61	+0.39	62.0%	12	15	17	19	22	25	27
Crusaders	1108	20	17.54	+2.46	77.0%	8	11	14	18	20	23	25
Bangor	1088	18	18.75	-0.75	50.0%	6	11	16	18	22	25	27
Ballymena United	1028	14	15.16	-1.16	37.0%	6	9	13	16	17	21	22
Lisburn Distillery	949	7	13.50	-6.50	3.0%	5	8	11	13	16	20	22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+10.61%

Slight Edge

41.67%27.27%31.06%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 36.99 Elo pts.

203 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.26 goals

Neutral

-2+0.18+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

1.9

One-Team Race

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

70%

Linfield, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.27/gm

Comfortable

00.170.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.98 * Some Luck: 2.98 to 4.48 * Lucky: 4.48 to 5.97 * Wild Swing: 5.97 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.24 * Close: 1.24 to 1.86 * Off: 1.86 to 2.48 * Way Off: 2.48 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

2.78 points

As Expected

03.739

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.83

Pinpoint

01.554

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

89.00%

Ards

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

3.00%

Lisburn Distillery

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Balanced

00.190.250.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 119.83

1.76

Coin-Flip Parity

11.852.253

Interquartile Edge

66%

Even

50%70%81%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

93%

Clear Edge

50%92%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Frequent

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

17%

Rare

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.59

Predictable

00.602

Matchup Imbalance

0.40

Very Even

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.55

Very Predictable

01.002

Repeatability

0.90

Near-Lock

00.470.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

18%

Chalky

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

14%

Solid Favorites

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.15 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.15 to 0.22 * Above Noise: 0.22 to 0.29 * Well Above Noise: 0.29 and up.

Probability calibration

0.79

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.16

Underconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.105

Well Within Noise

00.1470.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Linfield	70.00%	19.00%	8.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Glenavon	3.00%	19.00%	18.00%	19.00%	16.00%	7.00%	8.00%	4.00%	5.00%	—	—	1.00%
Ards	1.00%	9.00%	12.00%	11.00%	14.00%	12.00%	15.00%	13.00%	8.00%	1.00%	4.00%	—
Glentoran	20.00%	38.00%	20.00%	10.00%	7.00%	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Portadown	3.00%	7.00%	9.00%	18.00%	14.00%	14.00%	19.00%	5.00%	6.00%	4.00%	—	1.00%
Larne	3.00%	8.00%	18.00%	15.00%	16.00%	17.00%	6.00%	5.00%	8.00%	3.00%	—	1.00%
Cliftonville	—	—	9.00%	13.00%	14.00%	18.00%	13.00%	15.00%	8.00%	6.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Coleraine	—	—	2.00%	7.00%	4.00%	10.00%	10.00%	30.00%	16.00%	14.00%	7.00%	—
Crusaders	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	6.00%	4.00%	14.00%	7.00%	21.00%	16.00%	20.00%	10.00%
Bangor	—	—	3.00%	4.00%	7.00%	12.00%	9.00%	11.00%	12.00%	25.00%	8.00%	9.00%
Ballymena United	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	5.00%	5.00%	8.00%	22.00%	34.00%	24.00%
Lisburn Distillery	—	—	—	—	—	2.00%	—	4.00%	8.00%	9.00%	24.00%	53.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Ards	100%
Ballymena United	100%
Bangor	100%
Cliftonville	100%
Coleraine	100%
Crusaders	100%
Glenavon	100%
Glentoran	100%
Larne	100%
Linfield	100%
Lisburn Distillery	100%
Portadown	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1978-11-25	Glentoran	D 4-4	63.7	1159	1341	21.03%	27.22%	51.74%	-0.71	+0.5	1
1978-11-25	@ Ards	D 4-4	63.7	1341	1159	51.74%	27.22%	21.03%	+0.71	-0.5	1
1978-11-25	Portadown	W 1-0	44.3	1057	1180	27.23%	28.32%	44.45%	-0.43	+6.9	2
1978-11-25	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	44.3	1180	1057	44.45%	28.32%	27.23%	+0.43	-6.9	0
1978-11-25	Larne	L 0-3	35.7	1119	1173	36.34%	28.91%	34.75%	-0.09	-16.2	0
1978-11-25	@ Coleraine	W 3-0	35.7	1173	1119	34.75%	28.91%	36.34%	+0.09	+16.2	2
1978-11-25	Cliftonville	D 2-2	56.5	1099	1165	34.74%	28.87%	36.39%	-0.14	+0.0	1
1978-11-25	@ Crusaders	D 2-2	56.5	1165	1099	36.39%	28.87%	34.74%	+0.14	-0.0	1
1978-11-25	Linfield	D 0-0	48.5	1213	1365	24.02%	27.85%	48.13%	-0.57	+0.9	1
1978-11-25	@ Glenavon	D 0-0	48.5	1365	1213	48.13%	27.85%	24.02%	+0.57	-0.9	1
1978-11-25	Bangor	D 2-2	56.5	1028	1112	32.30%	28.76%	38.93%	-0.23	+0.2	1
1978-11-25	@ Lisburn Distillery	D 2-2	56.5	1112	1028	38.93%	28.76%	32.30%	+0.23	-0.2	1
1978-12-02	Coleraine	W 2-0	33.2	1164	1103	51.21%	28.04%	20.75%	+0.49	+7.3	3
1978-12-02	@ Cliftonville	L 0-2	33.2	1103	1164	20.75%	28.04%	51.21%	-0.49	-7.3	0
1978-12-02	Ards	L 1-2	54.5	1364	1159	64.99%	24.25%	10.76%	+1.19	-9.0	1
1978-12-02	@ Linfield	W 2-1	54.5	1159	1364	10.76%	24.25%	64.99%	-1.19	+9.0	3
1978-12-02	Lisburn Distillery	W 1-0	34.5	1173	1028	59.76%	26.12%	14.12%	+0.90	+2.7	2
1978-12-02	@ Portadown	L 0-1	34.5	1028	1173	14.12%	26.12%	59.76%	-0.90	-2.7	1
1978-12-09	Portadown	W 3-0	33.3	1169	1176	42.74%	28.84%	28.43%	+0.14	+13.6	5
1978-12-09	@ Ards	L 0-3	33.3	1176	1169	28.43%	28.84%	42.74%	-0.14	-13.6	2
1978-12-09	Glentoran	W 5-1	45.7	1063	1341	13.78%	24.50%	61.72%	-1.18	+27.0	4
1978-12-09	@ Ballymena United	L 1-5	45.7	1341	1063	61.72%	24.50%	13.78%	+1.18	-27.0	1
1978-12-09	Bangor	D 1-1	51.3	1096	1112	41.61%	28.88%	29.51%	+0.10	-0.4	1
1978-12-09	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	51.3	1112	1096	29.51%	28.88%	41.61%	-0.10	+0.4	2
1978-12-09	Linfield	L 1-4	33.3	1099	1355	15.11%	25.18%	59.71%	-1.08	-6.6	1
1978-12-09	@ Crusaders	W 4-1	33.3	1355	1099	59.71%	25.18%	15.11%	+1.08	+6.6	3
1978-12-09	Cliftonville	W 2-0	34.0	1214	1172	48.92%	28.35%	22.73%	+0.39	+7.8	3
1978-12-09	@ Glenavon	L 0-2	34.0	1172	1214	22.73%	28.35%	48.92%	-0.39	-7.9	3
1978-12-09	Larne	L 1-3	38.8	1026	1190	22.82%	27.62%	49.56%	-0.62	-6.7	1
1978-12-09	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	38.8	1190	1026	49.56%	27.62%	22.82%	+0.62	+6.8	4
1978-12-16	Crusaders	W 2-0	34.7	1112	1092	46.22%	28.62%	25.16%	+0.28	+8.5	4
1978-12-16	@ Bangor	L 0-2	34.7	1092	1112	25.16%	28.62%	46.22%	-0.28	-8.5	1
1978-12-16	Ballymena United	W 5-0	30.4	1164	1090	52.53%	27.83%	19.64%	+0.54	+16.3	5
1978-12-16	@ Cliftonville	L 0-5	30.4	1090	1164	19.64%	27.83%	52.53%	-0.54	-16.3	4
1978-12-16	Glenavon	D 2-2	57.5	1314	1222	54.54%	27.45%	18.01%	+0.64	-0.9	2
1978-12-16	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	57.5	1222	1314	18.01%	27.45%	54.54%	-0.64	+0.9	4
1978-12-16	Ards	D 3-3	60.8	1196	1182	45.55%	28.67%	25.78%	+0.25	-0.4	5
1978-12-16	@ Larne	D 3-3	60.8	1182	1196	25.78%	28.67%	45.55%	-0.25	+0.4	6
1978-12-16	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-0	26.2	1362	1019	75.06%	19.10%	5.84%	+1.87	+2.0	5
1978-12-16	@ Linfield	L 0-2	26.2	1019	1362	5.84%	19.10%	75.06%	-1.87	-2.0	1
1978-12-16	Coleraine	L 0-2	42.5	1163	1095	51.86%	27.94%	20.20%	+0.51	-14.8	2
1978-12-16	@ Portadown	W 2-0	42.5	1095	1163	20.20%	27.94%	51.86%	-0.51	+14.8	3
1978-12-20	Ballymena United	D 0-0	47.6	1120	1074	49.44%	28.29%	22.27%	+0.41	-1.0	5
1978-12-20	@ Bangor	D 0-0	47.6	1074	1120	22.27%	28.29%	49.44%	-0.41	+1.0	5
1978-12-20	Crusaders	W 3-2	42.2	1313	1084	66.93%	23.41%	9.66%	+1.31	+1.7	4
1978-12-20	@ Glentoran	L 2-3	42.2	1084	1313	9.66%	23.41%	66.93%	-1.31	-1.7	1
1978-12-20	Glenavon	L 1-2	48.1	1196	1222	40.21%	28.91%	30.88%	+0.05	-6.0	5
1978-12-20	@ Larne	W 2-1	48.1	1222	1196	30.88%	28.91%	40.21%	-0.05	+6.0	6
1978-12-23	Cliftonville	W 3-2	49.0	1182	1180	44.02%	28.77%	27.21%	+0.19	+4.3	8
1978-12-23	@ Ards	L 2-3	49.0	1180	1182	27.21%	28.77%	44.02%	-0.19	-4.3	5
1978-12-23	Larne	L 1-3	40.7	1075	1190	28.30%	28.44%	43.26%	-0.38	-8.0	5
1978-12-23	@ Ballymena United	W 3-1	40.7	1190	1075	43.26%	28.44%	28.30%	+0.38	+8.0	7
1978-12-23	Linfield	D 0-0	48.8	1110	1364	15.28%	25.26%	59.46%	-1.07	+1.7	4
1978-12-23	@ Coleraine	D 0-0	48.8	1364	1110	59.46%	25.26%	15.28%	+1.07	-1.7	6
1978-12-23	Portadown	L 1-2	46.3	1082	1148	34.76%	28.87%	36.37%	-0.14	-5.4	1
1978-12-23	@ Crusaders	W 2-1	46.3	1148	1082	36.37%	28.87%	34.76%	+0.14	+5.4	4
1978-12-23	Bangor	L 0-1	47.5	1228	1119	56.27%	27.07%	16.66%	+0.72	-8.5	6
1978-12-23	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	47.5	1119	1228	16.66%	27.07%	56.27%	-0.72	+8.5	7
1978-12-23	Glentoran	L 1-3	34.7	1017	1314	12.60%	23.81%	63.59%	-1.28	-3.9	1
1978-12-23	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-1	34.7	1314	1017	63.59%	23.81%	12.60%	+1.28	+3.9	6
1978-12-26	Ards	L 2-5	43.5	1128	1187	35.71%	28.90%	35.39%	-0.11	-11.7	7
1978-12-26	@ Bangor	W 5-2	43.5	1187	1128	35.39%	28.90%	35.71%	+0.11	+11.7	10
1978-12-26	Lisburn Distillery	W 3-0	27.6	1176	1013	61.39%	25.60%	13.01%	+0.98	+6.9	7
1978-12-26	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	27.6	1013	1176	13.01%	25.60%	61.39%	-0.98	-6.9	1
1978-12-26	Coleraine	W 2-1	37.9	1318	1112	65.13%	24.19%	10.68%	+1.20	+2.0	8
1978-12-26	@ Glentoran	L 1-2	37.9	1112	1318	10.68%	24.19%	65.13%	-1.20	-2.0	4
1978-12-26	Crusaders	D 1-1	52.0	1198	1077	57.49%	26.76%	15.75%	+0.78	-1.4	8
1978-12-26	@ Larne	D 1-1	52.0	1077	1198	15.75%	26.76%	57.49%	-0.78	+1.4	2
1978-12-26	Ballymena United	W 6-1	27.9	1362	1067	71.83%	20.95%	7.22%	+1.63	+4.9	8
1978-12-26	@ Linfield	L 1-6	27.9	1067	1362	7.22%	20.95%	71.83%	-1.63	-4.9	5
1978-12-26	Glenavon	W 5-1	39.4	1153	1220	34.57%	28.87%	36.56%	-0.15	+17.7	6
1978-12-26	@ Portadown	L 1-5	39.4	1220	1153	36.56%	28.87%	34.57%	+0.15	-17.7	6
1978-12-30	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-0	29.3	1198	1006	63.94%	24.67%	11.39%	+1.13	+4.2	12
1978-12-30	@ Ards	L 0-2	29.3	1006	1198	11.39%	24.67%	63.94%	-1.13	-4.2	1
1978-12-30	Coleraine	D 1-1	51.3	1062	1110	37.31%	28.92%	33.76%	-0.05	-0.1	6
1978-12-30	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	51.3	1110	1062	33.76%	28.92%	37.31%	+0.05	+0.1	5
1978-12-30	Bangor	W 3-0	30.6	1183	1116	51.77%	27.96%	20.28%	+0.51	+10.4	9
1978-12-30	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	30.6	1116	1183	20.28%	27.96%	51.77%	-0.51	-10.4	7
1978-12-30	Glenavon	W 1-0	44.3	1078	1202	27.18%	28.32%	44.50%	-0.43	+6.9	4
1978-12-30	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	44.3	1202	1078	44.50%	28.32%	27.18%	+0.43	-6.9	6
1978-12-30	Larne	L 0-2	44.3	1320	1197	57.73%	26.70%	15.57%	+0.79	-16.3	8
1978-12-30	@ Glentoran	W 2-0	44.3	1197	1320	15.57%	26.70%	57.73%	-0.79	+16.3	10
1979-01-01	Crusaders	W 5-0	32.1	1110	1085	46.86%	28.56%	24.58%	+0.30	+19.5	7
1979-01-01	@ Coleraine	L 0-5	32.1	1085	1110	24.58%	28.56%	46.86%	-0.30	-19.5	4
1979-01-06	Ballymena United	W 4-0	32.2	1066	1062	44.16%	28.77%	27.07%	+0.20	+17.1	6
1979-01-06	@ Crusaders	L 0-4	32.2	1062	1066	27.07%	28.77%	44.16%	-0.20	-17.1	6
1979-01-13	Glenavon	W 4-3	54.9	1129	1195	34.69%	28.87%	36.43%	-0.14	+5.2	9
1979-01-13	@ Coleraine	L 3-4	54.9	1195	1129	36.43%	28.87%	34.69%	+0.14	-5.2	6
1979-01-16	Glentoran	W 2-1	43.3	1367	1304	51.37%	28.02%	20.61%	+0.49	+3.6	10
1979-01-16	@ Linfield	L 1-2	43.3	1304	1367	20.61%	28.02%	51.37%	-0.49	-3.6	8
1979-01-17	Portadown	L 1-3	42.8	1106	1171	34.84%	28.88%	36.28%	-0.14	-9.4	7
1979-01-17	@ Bangor	W 3-1	42.8	1171	1106	36.28%	28.88%	34.84%	+0.14	+9.4	8
1979-01-20	Ballymena United	W 3-2	44.2	1190	1045	59.78%	26.12%	14.10%	+0.90	+2.5	8
1979-01-20	@ Glenavon	L 2-3	44.2	1045	1190	14.10%	26.12%	59.78%	-0.90	-2.4	6
1979-01-20	Portadown	L 3-5	53.0	1213	1180	47.81%	28.47%	23.71%	+0.34	-10.1	10
1979-01-20	@ Larne	W 5-3	53.0	1180	1213	23.71%	28.47%	47.81%	-0.34	+10.1	10
1979-01-20	Bangor	D 2-2	58.9	1371	1096	70.34%	21.75%	7.91%	+1.53	-1.7	11
1979-01-20	@ Linfield	D 2-2	58.9	1096	1371	7.91%	21.75%	70.34%	-1.53	+1.7	8
1979-01-20	Coleraine	L 1-2	43.5	1002	1135	26.20%	28.19%	45.61%	-0.47	-4.4	1
1979-01-20	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 2-1	43.5	1135	1002	45.61%	28.19%	26.20%	+0.47	+4.4	11
1979-01-23	Bangor	W 3-2	42.8	1300	1098	64.77%	24.34%	10.89%	+1.18	+1.9	10
1979-01-23	@ Glentoran	L 2-3	42.8	1098	1300	10.89%	24.34%	64.77%	-1.18	-1.9	8
1979-01-23	Cliftonville	W 2-0	35.2	1203	1193	44.94%	28.72%	26.34%	+0.23	+8.8	12
1979-01-23	@ Larne	L 0-2	35.2	1193	1203	26.34%	28.72%	44.94%	-0.23	-8.8	9
1979-01-24	Coleraine	D 2-2	56.9	1203	1139	51.44%	28.01%	20.55%	+0.50	-0.8	13
1979-01-24	@ Ards	D 2-2	56.9	1139	1203	20.55%	28.01%	51.44%	-0.50	+0.8	12
1979-01-24	Ballymena United	W 4-2	46.5	998	1043	37.66%	28.93%	33.41%	-0.04	+8.1	3
1979-01-24	@ Lisburn Distillery	L 2-4	46.5	1043	998	33.41%	28.93%	37.66%	+0.04	-8.1	6
1979-01-24	Linfield	L 2-3	47.4	1190	1369	21.38%	27.31%	51.31%	-0.70	-3.5	10
1979-01-24	@ Portadown	W 3-2	47.4	1369	1190	51.31%	27.31%	21.38%	+0.70	+3.5	13
1979-01-27	Lisburn Distillery	L 0-1	47.9	1140	1006	58.72%	26.43%	14.85%	+0.84	-8.8	12
1979-01-27	@ Coleraine	W 1-0	47.9	1006	1140	14.85%	26.43%	58.72%	-0.84	+8.8	5
1979-01-27	Larne	W 3-1	41.7	1187	1211	40.46%	28.91%	30.64%	+0.06	+8.5	12
1979-01-27	@ Portadown	L 1-3	41.7	1211	1187	30.64%	28.91%	40.46%	-0.06	-8.5	12
1979-01-30	Ards	W 3-1	41.1	1193	1202	42.53%	28.85%	28.63%	+0.14	+8.1	10
1979-01-30	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	41.1	1202	1193	28.63%	28.85%	42.53%	-0.14	-8.1	13
1979-01-30	Larne	W 3-1	35.8	1372	1203	61.98%	25.40%	12.62%	+1.02	+4.0	15
1979-01-30	@ Linfield	L 1-3	35.8	1203	1372	12.62%	25.40%	61.98%	-1.02	-4.0	12
1979-02-06	Lisburn Distillery	D 1-1	52.5	1201	1015	63.43%	24.87%	11.70%	+1.10	-1.8	11
1979-02-06	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	52.5	1015	1201	11.70%	24.87%	63.43%	-1.10	+1.8	6
1979-02-10	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-0	32.5	1096	1016	53.23%	27.70%	19.07%	+0.58	+6.8	10
1979-02-10	@ Bangor	L 0-2	32.5	1016	1096	19.07%	27.70%	53.23%	-0.58	-6.8	6
1979-02-10	Crusaders	W 1-0	35.8	1184	1083	55.54%	27.24%	17.22%	+0.68	+3.3	11
1979-02-10	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	35.8	1083	1184	17.22%	27.24%	55.54%	-0.68	-3.3	6
1979-02-10	Ards	W 1-0	35.9	1302	1194	56.22%	27.08%	16.70%	+0.72	+3.2	12
1979-02-10	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	35.9	1194	1302	16.70%	27.08%	56.22%	-0.72	-3.2	13
1979-02-10	Coleraine	L 0-1	46.5	1199	1131	51.93%	27.93%	20.14%	+0.52	-7.9	12
1979-02-10	@ Larne	W 1-0	46.5	1131	1199	20.14%	27.93%	51.93%	-0.52	+7.9	14
1979-02-10	Glenavon	D 0-0	49.3	1376	1199	62.68%	25.15%	12.17%	+1.06	-2.0	16
1979-02-10	@ Linfield	D 0-0	49.3	1199	1376	12.17%	25.15%	62.68%	-1.06	+2.0	12
1979-02-10	Ballymena United	W 2-0	30.2	1195	1034	61.22%	25.66%	13.13%	+0.97	+4.8	14
1979-02-10	@ Portadown	L 0-2	30.2	1034	1195	13.13%	25.66%	61.22%	-0.97	-4.8	6
1979-02-13	Lisburn Distillery	W 5-2	38.4	1079	1010	52.11%	27.90%	19.99%	+0.53	+7.5	8
1979-02-13	@ Crusaders	L 2-5	38.4	1010	1079	19.99%	27.90%	52.11%	-0.53	-7.5	6
1979-02-13	Portadown	W 1-0	36.1	1305	1200	55.89%	27.16%	16.96%	+0.70	+3.2	14
1979-02-13	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	36.1	1200	1305	16.96%	27.16%	55.89%	-0.70	-3.2	14
1979-02-14	Larne	L 1-3	41.9	1103	1191	31.70%	28.73%	39.57%	-0.25	-8.8	10
1979-02-14	@ Bangor	W 3-1	41.9	1191	1103	39.57%	28.73%	31.70%	+0.25	+8.7	14
1979-02-14	Linfield	L 0-3	31.1	1188	1374	20.62%	27.12%	52.26%	-0.74	-10.4	11
1979-02-14	@ Cliftonville	W 3-0	31.1	1374	1188	52.26%	27.12%	20.62%	+0.74	+10.4	18
1979-02-17	Linfield	L 0-2	33.3	1191	1385	19.93%	26.94%	53.13%	-0.77	-6.9	13
1979-02-17	@ Ards	W 2-0	33.3	1385	1191	53.13%	26.94%	19.93%	+0.77	+6.9	20
1979-02-17	Bangor	D 1-1	51.3	1030	1094	34.89%	28.88%	36.24%	-0.14	+0.0	7
1979-02-17	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	51.3	1094	1030	36.24%	28.88%	34.89%	+0.14	-0.0	11
1979-02-17	Cliftonville	D 1-1	51.4	1139	1177	38.56%	28.93%	32.51%	-0.01	-0.2	15
1979-02-17	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	51.4	1177	1139	32.51%	28.93%	38.56%	+0.01	+0.2	12
1979-02-17	Glentoran	L 0-2	31.8	1087	1309	17.63%	26.21%	56.16%	-0.91	-6.2	8
1979-02-17	@ Crusaders	W 2-0	31.8	1309	1087	56.16%	26.21%	17.63%	+0.91	+6.2	16
1979-02-17	Larne	W 2-1	44.2	1201	1200	43.88%	28.78%	27.34%	+0.19	+4.5	14
1979-02-17	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	44.2	1200	1201	27.34%	28.78%	43.88%	-0.19	-4.5	14
1979-02-20	Cliftonville	D 1-1	52.5	1315	1178	59.04%	26.34%	14.62%	+0.86	-1.5	17
1979-02-20	@ Glentoran	D 1-1	52.5	1178	1315	14.62%	26.34%	59.04%	-0.86	+1.5	13
1979-02-21	Crusaders	W 3-2	45.4	1184	1081	55.66%	27.21%	17.13%	+0.69	+2.9	15
1979-02-21	@ Ards	L 2-3	45.4	1081	1184	17.13%	27.21%	55.66%	-0.69	-2.9	8
1979-02-24	Linfield	L 0-2	29.8	1094	1392	12.60%	23.81%	63.59%	-1.28	-4.5	11
1979-02-24	@ Bangor	W 2-0	29.8	1392	1094	63.59%	23.81%	12.60%	+1.28	+4.5	22
1979-02-24	Ards	W 1-0	43.7	1078	1186	29.03%	28.52%	42.45%	-0.35	+6.6	10
1979-02-24	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	43.7	1186	1078	42.45%	28.52%	29.03%	+0.35	-6.6	15
1979-02-27	Glentoran	L 2-4	44.4	1179	1313	26.01%	28.16%	45.83%	-0.48	-6.7	13
1979-02-27	@ Cliftonville	W 4-2	44.4	1313	1179	45.83%	28.16%	26.01%	+0.48	+6.7	19
1979-03-03	Coleraine	W 3-1	42.6	1090	1139	37.13%	28.92%	33.95%	-0.06	+9.2	13
1979-03-03	@ Bangor	L 1-3	42.6	1139	1090	33.95%	28.92%	37.13%	+0.06	-9.2	15
1979-03-03	Glenavon	L 1-3	44.3	1172	1205	39.30%	28.93%	31.78%	+0.02	-10.2	13
1979-03-03	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	44.3	1205	1172	31.78%	28.93%	39.30%	-0.02	+10.2	16
1979-03-03	Ballymena United	W 2-0	27.2	1320	1030	71.50%	21.13%	7.37%	+1.61	+2.6	21
1979-03-03	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	27.2	1030	1320	7.37%	21.13%	71.50%	-1.61	-2.6	7
1979-03-03	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-0	29.3	1195	1002	64.02%	24.64%	11.34%	+1.13	+4.2	16
1979-03-03	@ Larne	L 0-2	29.3	1002	1195	11.34%	24.64%	64.02%	-1.13	-4.1	6
1979-03-03	Crusaders	D 1-1	54.3	1396	1084	73.00%	20.30%	6.70%	+1.72	-2.4	23
1979-03-03	@ Linfield	D 1-1	54.3	1084	1396	6.70%	20.30%	73.00%	-1.72	+2.4	11
1979-03-03	Ards	D 0-0	47.6	1197	1180	45.90%	28.65%	25.45%	+0.27	-0.7	15
1979-03-03	@ Portadown	D 0-0	47.6	1180	1197	25.45%	28.65%	45.90%	-0.27	+0.7	16
1979-03-07	Glenavon	L 0-2	32.8	1027	1216	20.45%	27.07%	52.48%	-0.75	-7.1	7
1979-03-07	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	32.8	1216	1027	52.48%	27.07%	20.45%	+0.75	+7.1	18
1979-03-10	Larne	W 3-2	49.9	1181	1199	41.24%	28.89%	29.87%	+0.09	+4.6	18
1979-03-10	@ Ards	L 2-3	49.9	1199	1181	29.87%	28.89%	41.24%	-0.09	-4.6	16
1979-03-10	Cliftonville	D 1-1	51.6	1020	1162	25.13%	28.03%	46.83%	-0.52	+0.7	8
1979-03-10	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	51.6	1162	1020	46.83%	28.03%	25.13%	+0.52	-0.7	14
1979-03-10	Portadown	W 3-0	35.8	1129	1196	34.58%	28.87%	36.55%	-0.15	+16.3	17
1979-03-10	@ Coleraine	L 0-3	35.8	1196	1129	36.55%	28.87%	34.58%	+0.15	-16.3	15
1979-03-10	Bangor	D 2-2	56.5	1087	1099	42.11%	28.86%	29.03%	+0.12	-0.3	12
1979-03-10	@ Crusaders	D 2-2	56.5	1099	1087	29.03%	28.86%	42.11%	-0.12	+0.3	14
1979-03-10	Glentoran	W 3-2	53.6	1223	1323	30.17%	28.62%	41.21%	-0.31	+5.8	20
1979-03-10	@ Glenavon	L 2-3	53.6	1323	1223	41.21%	28.62%	30.17%	+0.31	-5.8	21
1979-03-10	Linfield	L 0-1	31.1	998	1394	8.19%	20.14%	71.67%	-1.77	-1.5	6
1979-03-10	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 1-0	31.1	1394	998	71.67%	20.14%	8.19%	+1.77	+1.5	25
1979-03-17	Ards	L 1-3	38.8	1021	1185	22.77%	27.61%	49.62%	-0.63	-6.7	8
1979-03-17	@ Ballymena United	W 3-1	38.8	1185	1021	49.62%	27.61%	22.77%	+0.63	+6.7	20
1979-03-24	Glenavon	L 2-6	38.3	1099	1229	26.58%	28.24%	45.18%	-0.45	-11.8	14
1979-03-24	@ Bangor	W 6-2	38.3	1229	1099	45.18%	28.24%	26.58%	+0.45	+11.8	22
1979-03-24	Ards	W 2-1	45.4	1161	1192	39.66%	28.92%	31.42%	+0.03	+5.0	16
1979-03-24	@ Cliftonville	L 1-2	45.4	1192	1161	31.42%	28.92%	39.66%	-0.03	-5.0	20
1979-03-24	Lisburn Distillery	D 2-2	59.2	1317	996	73.57%	19.98%	6.46%	+1.76	-1.8	22
1979-03-24	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	59.2	996	1317	6.46%	19.98%	73.57%	-1.76	+1.8	7
1979-03-24	Ballymena United	W 2-1	38.3	1195	1014	62.97%	25.04%	11.99%	+1.07	+2.2	18
1979-03-24	@ Larne	L 1-2	38.3	1014	1195	11.99%	25.04%	62.97%	-1.07	-2.2	8
1979-03-24	Coleraine	L 2-3	60.0	1395	1146	68.53%	22.66%	8.82%	+1.41	-8.9	25
1979-03-24	@ Linfield	W 3-2	60.0	1146	1395	8.82%	22.66%	68.53%	-1.41	+8.9	19
1979-03-24	Crusaders	D 0-0	47.9	1180	1086	54.69%	27.42%	17.89%	+0.64	-1.4	16
1979-03-24	@ Portadown	D 0-0	47.9	1086	1180	17.89%	27.42%	54.69%	-0.64	+1.4	13
1979-03-27	Portadown	D 1-1	51.4	1166	1179	42.14%	28.86%	29.00%	+0.12	-0.4	17
1979-03-27	@ Cliftonville	D 1-1	51.4	1179	1166	29.00%	28.86%	42.14%	-0.12	+0.4	17
1979-03-31	Bangor	L 1-2	52.0	1187	1087	55.29%	27.29%	17.42%	+0.67	-7.9	20
1979-03-31	@ Ards	W 2-1	52.0	1087	1187	17.42%	27.29%	55.29%	-0.67	+7.8	16
1979-03-31	Linfield	L 1-2	36.3	1012	1386	8.99%	20.96%	70.05%	-1.66	-1.5	8
1979-03-31	@ Ballymena United	W 2-1	36.3	1386	1012	70.05%	20.96%	8.99%	+1.66	+1.5	27
1979-03-31	Glentoran	D 0-0	48.1	1155	1315	23.18%	27.69%	49.13%	-0.61	+0.9	20
1979-03-31	@ Coleraine	D 0-0	48.1	1315	1155	49.13%	27.69%	23.18%	+0.61	-0.9	23
1979-03-31	Larne	D 2-2	56.7	1088	1197	28.98%	28.51%	42.51%	-0.36	+0.3	14
1979-03-31	@ Crusaders	D 2-2	56.7	1197	1088	42.51%	28.51%	28.98%	+0.36	-0.3	19
1979-03-31	Portadown	D 1-1	51.8	1240	1179	51.19%	28.04%	20.76%	+0.48	-1.0	23
1979-03-31	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	51.8	1179	1240	20.76%	28.04%	51.19%	-0.48	+1.0	18
1979-03-31	Cliftonville	L 2-3	47.1	998	1166	22.44%	27.54%	50.02%	-0.64	-3.6	7
1979-03-31	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-2	47.1	1166	998	50.02%	27.54%	22.44%	+0.64	+3.6	19
1979-04-07	Cliftonville	D 0-0	47.5	1095	1170	33.54%	28.83%	37.63%	-0.18	+0.1	17
1979-04-07	@ Bangor	D 0-0	47.5	1170	1095	37.63%	28.83%	33.54%	+0.18	-0.1	20
1979-04-07	Ballymena United	L 1-2	52.9	1156	1010	59.79%	26.12%	14.10%	+0.90	-8.4	20
1979-04-07	@ Coleraine	W 2-1	52.9	1010	1156	14.10%	26.12%	59.79%	-0.90	+8.4	10
1979-04-07	Crusaders	D 1-1	52.3	1239	1088	60.35%	25.94%	13.71%	+0.93	-1.6	24
1979-04-07	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	52.3	1088	1239	13.71%	25.94%	60.35%	-0.93	+1.6	15
1979-04-07	Glentoran	D 1-1	51.9	1197	1314	27.99%	28.41%	43.60%	-0.40	+0.5	20
1979-04-07	@ Larne	D 1-1	51.9	1314	1197	43.60%	28.41%	27.99%	+0.40	-0.5	24
1979-04-07	Portadown	W 3-1	34.8	1388	1180	65.25%	24.14%	10.61%	+1.21	+3.3	29
1979-04-07	@ Linfield	L 1-3	34.8	1180	1388	10.61%	24.14%	65.25%	-1.21	-3.4	18
1979-04-07	Ards	L 0-3	30.5	995	1179	20.83%	27.17%	51.99%	-0.73	-10.5	7
1979-04-07	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-0	30.5	1179	995	51.99%	27.17%	20.83%	+0.73	+10.5	22
1979-04-11	Portadown	L 1-4	35.1	984	1177	20.10%	26.98%	52.92%	-0.77	-8.5	7
1979-04-11	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 4-1	35.1	1177	984	52.92%	26.98%	20.10%	+0.77	+8.6	20
1979-04-14	Glenavon	W 3-0	35.1	1190	1238	37.20%	28.92%	33.88%	-0.06	+15.4	24
1979-04-14	@ Ards	L 0-3	35.1	1238	1190	33.88%	28.92%	37.20%	+0.06	-15.4	24
1979-04-14	Lisburn Distillery	W 2-0	33.8	1019	976	49.06%	28.33%	22.61%	+0.39	+7.8	12
1979-04-14	@ Ballymena United	L 0-2	33.8	976	1019	22.61%	28.33%	49.06%	-0.39	-7.8	7
1979-04-14	Larne	L 0-1	43.2	1170	1197	40.05%	28.92%	31.04%	+0.05	-6.4	20
1979-04-14	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	43.2	1197	1170	31.04%	28.92%	40.05%	-0.05	+6.4	22
1979-04-14	Coleraine	W 1-0	41.7	1090	1147	35.91%	28.90%	35.18%	-0.10	+5.8	17
1979-04-14	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	41.7	1147	1090	35.18%	28.90%	35.91%	+0.10	-5.8	20
1979-04-14	Linfield	D 1-1	53.3	1314	1391	33.08%	28.80%	38.12%	-0.20	+0.2	25
1979-04-14	@ Glentoran	D 1-1	53.3	1391	1314	38.12%	28.80%	33.08%	+0.20	-0.1	30
1979-04-14	Bangor	W 3-1	37.4	1185	1095	54.28%	27.50%	18.22%	+0.62	+5.6	22
1979-04-14	@ Portadown	L 1-3	37.4	1095	1185	18.22%	27.50%	54.28%	-0.62	-5.7	17
1979-04-16	Ards	L 1-2	46.5	1141	1205	35.03%	28.88%	36.09%	-0.13	-5.4	20
1979-04-16	@ Coleraine	W 2-1	46.5	1205	1141	36.09%	28.88%	35.03%	+0.13	+5.4	26
1979-04-16	Linfield	L 3-4	50.4	1204	1391	20.54%	27.10%	52.36%	-0.74	-3.3	22
1979-04-16	@ Larne	W 4-3	50.4	1391	1204	52.36%	27.10%	20.54%	+0.74	+3.3	32
1979-04-16	Glenavon	L 1-4	33.1	968	1222	15.23%	25.23%	59.53%	-1.07	-6.6	7
1979-04-16	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 4-1	33.1	1222	968	59.53%	25.23%	15.23%	+1.07	+6.6	26
1979-04-17	Crusaders	D 0-0	47.4	1026	1095	34.28%	28.86%	36.87%	-0.16	+0.1	13
1979-04-17	@ Ballymena United	D 0-0	47.4	1095	1026	36.87%	28.86%	34.28%	+0.16	-0.1	18
1979-04-17	Glentoran	D 0-0	48.4	1090	1314	17.47%	26.15%	56.38%	-0.92	+1.5	18
1979-04-17	@ Bangor	D 0-0	48.4	1314	1090	56.38%	26.15%	17.47%	+0.92	-1.5	26
1979-04-17	Cliftonville	D 0-0	47.6	1191	1163	47.21%	28.53%	24.26%	+0.32	-0.8	23
1979-04-17	@ Portadown	D 0-0	47.6	1163	1191	24.26%	28.53%	47.21%	-0.32	+0.8	21
1979-04-21	Ballymena United	D 3-3	61.8	1210	1027	63.23%	24.94%	11.83%	+1.09	-1.1	27
1979-04-21	@ Ards	D 3-3	61.8	1027	1210	11.83%	24.94%	63.23%	-1.09	+1.1	14
1979-04-21	Coleraine	W 3-0	29.8	1229	1136	54.64%	27.43%	17.93%	+0.64	+9.3	28
1979-04-21	@ Glenavon	L 0-3	29.8	1136	1229	17.93%	27.43%	54.64%	-0.64	-9.4	20
1979-04-21	Bangor	W 2-1	40.4	1200	1091	56.27%	27.07%	16.66%	+0.72	+3.0	24
1979-04-21	@ Larne	L 1-2	40.4	1091	1200	16.66%	27.07%	56.27%	-0.72	-3.0	18
1979-04-21	Cliftonville	W 2-1	37.7	1394	1164	67.05%	23.35%	9.60%	+1.32	+1.7	34
1979-04-21	@ Linfield	L 1-2	37.7	1164	1394	9.60%	23.35%	67.05%	-1.32	-1.7	21
1979-04-21	Crusaders	L 0-3	32.3	961	1095	26.01%	28.16%	45.82%	-0.48	-12.6	7
1979-04-21	@ Lisburn Distillery	W 3-0	32.3	1095	961	45.82%	28.16%	26.01%	+0.48	+12.6	20
1979-04-21	Glentoran	W 2-0	40.7	1190	1312	27.40%	28.34%	44.25%	-0.42	+12.9	25
1979-04-21	@ Portadown	L 0-2	40.7	1312	1190	44.25%	28.34%	27.40%	+0.42	-12.9	26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1979-03-24	8.82%	Coleraine	1146	3	@ Linfield	1395	2
2	1978-12-02	10.76%	Ards	1159	2	@ Linfield	1364	1
3	1978-12-09	13.78%	@ Ballymena United	1063	5	Glentoran	1341	1
4	1979-04-07	14.10%	Ballymena United	1010	2	@ Coleraine	1156	1
5	1979-01-27	14.85%	Lisburn Distillery	1006	1	@ Coleraine	1140	0
6	1978-12-30	15.57%	Larne	1197	2	@ Glentoran	1320	0
7	1978-12-23	16.66%	Bangor	1119	1	@ Glenavon	1228	0
8	1979-03-31	17.42%	Bangor	1087	2	@ Ards	1187	1
9	1979-02-10	20.14%	Coleraine	1131	1	@ Larne	1199	0
10	1978-12-16	20.20%	Coleraine	1095	2	@ Portadown	1163	0
11	1979-01-20	23.71%	Portadown	1180	5	@ Larne	1213	3
12	1978-12-30	27.18%	@ Crusaders	1078	1	Glenavon	1202	0
13	1978-11-25	27.23%	@ Ballymena United	1057	1	Portadown	1180	0
14	1979-04-21	27.40%	@ Portadown	1190	2	Glentoran	1312	0
15	1979-02-24	29.03%	@ Crusaders	1078	1	Ards	1186	0
16	1979-03-10	30.17%	@ Glenavon	1223	3	Glentoran	1323	2
17	1978-12-20	30.88%	Glenavon	1222	2	@ Larne	1196	1
18	1979-04-14	31.04%	Larne	1197	1	@ Cliftonville	1170	0
19	1979-03-03	31.78%	Glenavon	1205	3	@ Cliftonville	1172	1
20	1978-12-26	34.57%	@ Portadown	1153	5	Glenavon	1220	1
21	1979-03-10	34.58%	@ Coleraine	1129	3	Portadown	1196	0
22	1979-01-13	34.69%	@ Coleraine	1129	4	Glenavon	1195	3
23	1978-11-25	34.75%	Larne	1173	3	@ Coleraine	1119	0
24	1978-12-26	35.39%	Ards	1187	5	@ Bangor	1128	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1978-12-09	27.00	@ Ballymena United	5	1063	13.78%	Glentoran	1	1341	61.72%	24.50%
2	1979-01-01	19.54	@ Coleraine	5	1110	46.86%	Crusaders	0	1085	24.58%	28.56%
3	1978-12-26	17.71	@ Portadown	5	1153	34.57%	Glenavon	1	1220	36.56%	28.87%
4	1979-01-06	17.08	@ Crusaders	4	1066	44.16%	Ballymena United	0	1062	27.07%	28.77%
5	1978-12-30	16.30	Larne	2	1197	15.57%	@ Glentoran	0	1320	57.73%	26.70%
6	1978-12-16	16.28	@ Cliftonville	5	1164	52.53%	Ballymena United	0	1090	19.64%	27.83%
7	1979-03-10	16.26	@ Coleraine	3	1129	34.58%	Portadown	0	1196	36.55%	28.87%
8	1978-11-25	16.21	Larne	3	1173	34.75%	@ Coleraine	0	1119	36.34%	28.91%
9	1979-04-14	15.42	@ Ards	3	1190	37.20%	Glenavon	0	1238	33.88%	28.92%
10	1978-12-16	14.84	Coleraine	2	1095	20.20%	@ Portadown	0	1163	51.86%	27.94%
11	1978-12-09	13.57	@ Ards	3	1169	42.74%	Portadown	0	1176	28.43%	28.84%
12	1979-04-21	12.93	@ Portadown	2	1190	27.40%	Glentoran	0	1312	44.25%	28.34%
13	1979-04-21	12.59	Crusaders	3	1095	45.82%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	961	26.01%	28.16%
14	1979-03-24	11.83	Glenavon	6	1229	45.18%	@ Bangor	2	1099	26.58%	28.24%
15	1978-12-26	11.69	Ards	5	1187	35.39%	@ Bangor	2	1128	35.71%	28.90%
16	1979-04-07	10.47	Ards	3	1179	51.99%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	995	20.83%	27.17%
17	1978-12-30	10.39	@ Cliftonville	3	1183	51.77%	Bangor	0	1116	20.28%	27.96%
18	1979-02-14	10.38	Linfield	3	1374	52.26%	@ Cliftonville	0	1188	20.62%	27.12%
19	1979-03-03	10.25	Glenavon	3	1205	31.78%	@ Cliftonville	1	1172	39.30%	28.93%
20	1979-01-20	10.13	Portadown	5	1180	23.71%	@ Larne	3	1213	47.81%	28.47%
21	1979-01-17	9.37	Portadown	3	1171	36.28%	@ Bangor	1	1106	34.84%	28.88%
22	1979-04-21	9.35	@ Glenavon	3	1229	54.64%	Coleraine	0	1136	17.93%	27.43%
23	1979-03-03	9.21	@ Bangor	3	1090	37.13%	Coleraine	1	1139	33.95%	28.92%
24	1978-12-02	9.02	Ards	2	1159	10.76%	@ Linfield	1	1364	64.99%	24.25%
25	1979-03-24	8.92	Coleraine	3	1146	8.82%	@ Linfield	2	1395	68.53%	22.66%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1978-11-25	63.7	@ Ards	4	1159	21.03%	Glentoran	4	1341	51.74%	27.22%
2	1979-04-21	61.8	@ Ards	3	1210	63.23%	Ballymena United	3	1027	11.83%	24.94%
3	1978-12-16	60.8	@ Larne	3	1196	45.55%	Ards	3	1182	25.78%	28.67%
4	1979-03-24	60.0	Coleraine	3	1146	8.82%	@ Linfield	2	1395	68.53%	22.66%
5	1979-03-24	59.2	@ Glentoran	2	1317	73.57%	Lisburn Distillery	2	996	6.46%	19.98%
6	1979-01-20	58.9	@ Linfield	2	1371	70.34%	Bangor	2	1096	7.91%	21.75%
7	1978-12-16	57.5	@ Glentoran	2	1314	54.54%	Glenavon	2	1222	18.01%	27.45%
8	1979-01-24	56.9	@ Ards	2	1203	51.44%	Coleraine	2	1139	20.55%	28.01%
9	1979-03-31	56.7	@ Crusaders	2	1088	28.98%	Larne	2	1197	42.51%	28.51%
10	1978-11-25	56.5	@ Crusaders	2	1099	34.74%	Cliftonville	2	1165	36.39%	28.87%
11	1978-11-25	56.5	@ Lisburn Distillery	2	1028	32.30%	Bangor	2	1112	38.93%	28.76%
12	1979-03-10	56.5	@ Crusaders	2	1087	42.11%	Bangor	2	1099	29.03%	28.86%
13	1979-01-13	54.9	@ Coleraine	4	1129	34.69%	Glenavon	3	1195	36.43%	28.87%
14	1978-12-02	54.5	Ards	2	1159	10.76%	@ Linfield	1	1364	64.99%	24.25%
15	1979-03-03	54.3	@ Linfield	1	1396	73.00%	Crusaders	1	1084	6.70%	20.30%
16	1979-03-10	53.6	@ Glenavon	3	1223	30.17%	Glentoran	2	1323	41.21%	28.62%
17	1979-04-14	53.3	@ Glentoran	1	1314	33.08%	Linfield	1	1391	38.12%	28.80%
18	1979-01-20	53.0	Portadown	5	1180	23.71%	@ Larne	3	1213	47.81%	28.47%
19	1979-04-07	52.9	Ballymena United	2	1010	14.10%	@ Coleraine	1	1156	59.79%	26.12%
20	1979-02-06	52.5	@ Glenavon	1	1201	63.43%	Lisburn Distillery	1	1015	11.70%	24.87%
21	1979-02-20	52.5	@ Glentoran	1	1315	59.04%	Cliftonville	1	1178	14.62%	26.34%
22	1979-04-07	52.3	@ Glenavon	1	1239	60.35%	Crusaders	1	1088	13.71%	25.94%
23	1978-12-26	52.0	@ Larne	1	1198	57.49%	Crusaders	1	1077	15.75%	26.76%
24	1979-03-31	52.0	Bangor	2	1087	17.42%	@ Ards	1	1187	55.29%	27.29%
25	1979-04-07	51.9	@ Larne	1	1197	27.99%	Glentoran	1	1314	43.60%	28.41%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1978-12-16	26.2	@ Linfield	2	1362	75.06%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1019	5.84%	19.10%
2	1979-03-03	27.2	@ Glentoran	2	1320	71.50%	Ballymena United	0	1030	7.37%	21.13%
3	1978-12-26	27.6	@ Cliftonville	3	1176	61.39%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1013	13.01%	25.60%
4	1978-12-26	27.9	@ Linfield	6	1362	71.83%	Ballymena United	1	1067	7.22%	20.95%
5	1978-12-30	29.3	@ Ards	2	1198	63.94%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1006	11.39%	24.67%
6	1979-03-03	29.3	@ Larne	2	1195	64.02%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1002	11.34%	24.64%
7	1979-02-24	29.8	Linfield	2	1392	63.59%	@ Bangor	0	1094	12.60%	23.81%
8	1979-04-21	29.8	@ Glenavon	3	1229	54.64%	Coleraine	0	1136	17.93%	27.43%
9	1979-02-10	30.2	@ Portadown	2	1195	61.22%	Ballymena United	0	1034	13.13%	25.66%
10	1978-12-16	30.4	@ Cliftonville	5	1164	52.53%	Ballymena United	0	1090	19.64%	27.83%
11	1979-04-07	30.5	Ards	3	1179	51.99%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	995	20.83%	27.17%
12	1978-12-30	30.6	@ Cliftonville	3	1183	51.77%	Bangor	0	1116	20.28%	27.96%
13	1979-02-14	31.1	Linfield	3	1374	52.26%	@ Cliftonville	0	1188	20.62%	27.12%
14	1979-03-10	31.1	Linfield	1	1394	71.67%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	998	8.19%	20.14%
15	1979-02-17	31.8	Glentoran	2	1309	56.16%	@ Crusaders	0	1087	17.63%	26.21%
16	1979-01-01	32.1	@ Coleraine	5	1110	46.86%	Crusaders	0	1085	24.58%	28.56%
17	1979-01-06	32.2	@ Crusaders	4	1066	44.16%	Ballymena United	0	1062	27.07%	28.77%
18	1979-04-21	32.3	Crusaders	3	1095	45.82%	@ Lisburn Distillery	0	961	26.01%	28.16%
19	1979-02-10	32.5	@ Bangor	2	1096	53.23%	Lisburn Distillery	0	1016	19.07%	27.70%
20	1979-03-07	32.8	Glenavon	2	1216	52.48%	@ Ballymena United	0	1027	20.45%	27.07%
21	1979-04-16	33.1	Glenavon	4	1222	59.53%	@ Lisburn Distillery	1	968	15.23%	25.23%
22	1978-12-02	33.2	@ Cliftonville	2	1164	51.21%	Coleraine	0	1103	20.75%	28.04%
23	1978-12-09	33.3	@ Ards	3	1169	42.74%	Portadown	0	1176	28.43%	28.84%
24	1978-12-09	33.3	Linfield	4	1355	59.71%	@ Crusaders	1	1099	15.11%	25.18%
25	1979-02-17	33.3	Linfield	2	1385	53.13%	@ Ards	0	1191	19.93%	26.94%