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1981-82 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

37 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Linfield

4.69 points above expected

37 points · 32.31 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Larne

6.22 points below expected

13 points · 19.22 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Linfield 22 17 3 2 37 59 19 +40 32.31 +4.69
2 Glentoran 22 16 1 5 33 61 22 +39 31.86 +1.14
3 Coleraine 22 14 3 5 31 63 31 +32 28.43 +2.57
4 Crusaders 22 11 4 7 26 36 31 +5 22.47 +3.53
5 Cliftonville 22 9 6 7 24 33 28 +5 20.17 +3.83
6 Portadown 22 11 2 9 24 29 29 0 22.72 +1.28
7 Ballymena United 22 6 8 8 20 25 30 -5 23.08 -3.08
8 Lisburn Distillery 22 7 4 11 18 30 44 -14 15.44 +2.56
9 Glenavon 22 4 7 11 15 30 52 -22 18.56 -3.56
10 Ards 22 5 4 13 14 18 47 -29 16.22 -2.22
11 Larne 22 5 3 14 13 27 42 -15 19.22 -6.22
12 Bangor 22 3 3 16 9 20 56 -36 13.52 -4.52

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Linfield 37 32.31 +4.69
2 Cliftonville 24 20.17 +3.83
3 Crusaders 26 22.47 +3.53
4 Coleraine 31 28.43 +2.57
5 Lisburn Distillery 18 15.44 +2.56

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Larne 13 19.22 -6.22
2 Bangor 9 13.52 -4.52
3 Glenavon 15 18.56 -3.56
4 Ballymena United 20 23.08 -3.08
5 Ards 14 16.22 -2.22

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glentoran 8 Feb 20 – Apr 10 1 in 54
2 Crusaders 3 Feb 13 – Mar 6 1 in 24
3 Cliftonville 2 Jan 1 – Jan 16 1 in 21
4 Coleraine 4 Jan 1 – Jan 16 1 in 20
5 Portadown 3 Jan 1 – Jan 16 1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Coleraine 3 Apr 13 – Apr 20 1 in 70
2 Glenavon 5 Jan 1 – Feb 6 1 in 56
3 Bangor 7 Feb 9 – Mar 27 1 in 29
4 Larne 4 Jan 1 – Jan 23 1 in 26
5 Ballymena United 2 Mar 27 – Apr 3 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Crusaders 8 Feb 13 – Apr 10 1 in 52
2 Cliftonville 6 Jan 23 – Mar 13 1 in 28
3 Coleraine 9 Jan 1 – Feb 27 1 in 21
4 Lisburn Distillery 3 Apr 13 – Apr 20 1 in 18
5 Glenavon 4 Feb 13 – Mar 6 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Ballymena United 7 Feb 13 – Apr 3 1 in 63
2 Glenavon 6 Jan 1 – Feb 13 1 in 12
3 Coleraine 3 Apr 13 – Apr 20 1 in 11
4 Larne 6 Apr 3 – Apr 21 1 in 9
5 Ards 9 Feb 6 – Apr 6 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Linfield 1502 37 +44 9 8.0 +1.0
Glentoran 1409 33 +27 8 7.8 +0.2
Coleraine 1319 31 -61 4 7.0 -3.0
Crusaders 1280 26 +26 7 5.6 +1.4
Portadown 1207 24 +82 9 6.3 +2.7
Cliftonville 1218 24 +72 7 5.1 +1.9
Ballymena United 1150 20 -8 5 4.8 +0.2
Lisburn Distillery 1108 18 +33 5 3.1 +1.9
Glenavon 1046 15 -2 3 3.8 -0.8
Ards 1010 14 +22 5 3.5 +1.5
Larne 1010 13 -70 1 3.5 -2.5
Bangor 906 9 +0 3 2.4 +0.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BU BAN CLI COL CRU GLE GLE LAR LIN LD POR
Ards —
0-1-1
2.01
2-0-0
3.15
0-0-2
2.97
0-0-2
1.30
0-1-1
1.72
0-1-1
2.41
0-0-2
0.91
2-0-0
2.47
0-0-2
0.71
1-0-1
2.68
0-1-1
1.53
Ballymena United
1-1-0
3.60
—
1-0-1
4.34
0-1-1
3.26
1-0-1
2.21
0-1-1
2.97
0-2-0
3.71
1-0-1
1.56
1-1-0
3.73
0-1-1
1.68
1-1-0
3.51
0-0-2
2.99
Bangor
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
1.29
—
0-1-1
1.80
0-0-2
1.52
1-0-1
1.23
0-1-1
2.14
1-0-1
0.75
0-0-2
1.81
0-0-2
0.58
0-1-1
3.06
0-0-2
1.60
Cliftonville
2-0-0
2.65
1-1-0
2.35
1-1-0
3.82
—
0-1-1
1.69
0-0-2
2.42
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
1.13
2-0-0
3.50
0-0-2
1.20
1-1-0
3.50
1-1-0
2.56
Coleraine
2-0-0
4.33
1-0-1
3.41
2-0-0
4.10
1-1-0
3.93
—
1-0-1
4.01
2-0-0
3.98
0-1-1
2.74
1-1-0
3.97
1-0-1
2.08
1-0-1
4.52
2-0-0
3.66
Crusaders
1-1-0
3.89
1-1-0
2.64
1-0-1
4.40
2-0-0
3.20
1-0-1
1.61
—
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
1.55
1-0-1
3.25
0-1-1
1.35
1-0-1
4.00
1-0-1
2.64
Glenavon
1-1-0
3.21
0-2-0
1.91
1-1-0
3.48
1-1-0
2.93
0-0-2
1.65
0-1-1
2.29
—
0-0-2
1.01
0-1-1
2.99
0-0-2
1.19
1-0-1
3.29
0-0-2
1.92
Glentoran
2-0-0
4.73
1-0-1
4.06
1-0-1
4.89
1-0-1
4.50
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
4.07
2-0-0
4.62
—
2-0-0
4.46
1-0-1
2.69
2-0-0
4.44
2-0-0
4.25
Larne
0-0-2
3.14
0-1-1
1.88
2-0-0
3.81
0-0-2
2.12
0-1-1
1.65
1-0-1
2.36
1-1-0
2.63
0-0-2
1.18
—
0-0-2
1.42
1-0-1
3.43
0-0-2
2.97
Linfield
2-0-0
4.94
1-1-0
3.94
2-0-0
5.08
2-0-0
4.43
1-0-1
3.54
1-1-0
4.28
2-0-0
4.44
1-0-1
2.93
2-0-0
4.21
—
1-1-0
4.84
2-0-0
4.08
Lisburn Distillery
1-0-1
2.94
0-1-1
2.11
1-1-0
2.56
0-1-1
2.12
1-0-1
1.11
1-0-1
1.62
1-0-1
2.32
0-0-2
1.18
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
0.80
—
1-0-1
1.77
Portadown
1-1-0
4.09
2-0-0
2.63
2-0-0
4.02
0-1-1
3.06
0-0-2
1.96
1-0-1
2.98
2-0-0
3.70
0-0-2
1.38
2-0-0
2.64
0-0-2
1.55
1-0-1
3.85
—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.80 +4.9
Allowed 0.83 -6.6
Differential 0.95 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.79%8.71%3.79%2.65%3.03%1.89%23.86%
18.71%6.82%7.95%4.55%0.76%2.27%31.06%
23.79%7.95%6.06%2.27%2.27%0.38%22.73%
32.65%4.55%2.27%1.52%0.38%—11.36%
43.03%0.76%2.27%0.38%——6.44%
5+1.89%2.27%0.38%———4.55%
Total23.86%31.06%22.73%11.36%6.44%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.63 1.63 +0.00
SD 1.51 1.51 2.34
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%18.18%4.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%45.45%
19.09%4.55%9.09%——9.09%31.82%
29.09%—4.55%—4.55%—18.18%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.27%22.73%22.73%4.55%9.09%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.82 2.14 -1.32
SD 0.91 2.40 2.55
CV 1.11 1.12 —
Max 3 9 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
14.55%22.73%9.09%13.64%——50.00%
24.55%4.55%————9.09%
3—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total22.73%36.36%22.73%18.18%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.14 1.36 -0.23
SD 1.08 1.05 1.41
CV 0.95 0.77 —
Max 4 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%9.09%—13.64%4.55%40.91%
1—9.09%9.09%4.55%—9.09%31.82%
2—13.64%—4.55%4.55%—22.73%
3———4.55%——4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total—36.36%18.18%13.64%18.18%13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.91 2.55 -1.64
SD 0.92 1.50 1.84
CV 1.01 0.59 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 0 1 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%——4.55%—18.18%
118.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
24.55%4.55%18.18%4.55%——31.82%
3—4.55%————4.55%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+———————
Total27.27%36.36%22.73%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.27 +0.23
SD 1.14 1.12 1.72
CV 0.76 0.88 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
1——9.09%———9.09%
24.55%—9.09%—4.55%—18.18%
39.09%13.64%4.55%———27.27%
44.55%—9.09%4.55%——18.18%
5+—9.09%4.55%———13.64%
Total22.73%27.27%40.91%4.55%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.86 1.41 +1.45
SD 2.03 1.05 2.32
CV 0.71 0.75 —
Max 9 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%————13.64%
113.64%—9.09%4.55%—4.55%31.82%
24.55%22.73%9.09%4.55%——40.91%
34.55%———4.55%—9.09%
4———————
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total31.82%31.82%18.18%9.09%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.64 1.41 +0.23
SD 1.14 1.53 1.82
CV 0.69 1.09 —
Max 5 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%—4.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%27.27%
1—9.09%13.64%9.09%——31.82%
2—4.55%13.64%—4.55%—22.73%
3—4.55%4.55%4.55%——13.64%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+———————
Total4.55%18.18%40.91%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.36 -1.00
SD 1.18 1.33 2.00
CV 0.86 0.56 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—4.55%—4.55%——9.09%
19.09%—13.64%———22.73%
24.55%9.09%4.55%———18.18%
3—18.18%————18.18%
49.09%4.55%————13.64%
5+4.55%13.64%————18.18%
Total27.27%50.00%18.18%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.77 1.00 +1.77
SD 1.97 0.82 2.39
CV 0.71 0.82 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%18.18%9.09%9.09%——40.91%
14.55%4.55%4.55%—9.09%—22.73%
2—4.55%—9.09%—4.55%18.18%
3——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
49.09%—————9.09%
5+———————
Total18.18%27.27%18.18%22.73%9.09%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.23 1.91 -0.68
SD 1.34 1.44 2.01
CV 1.09 0.76 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
19.09%9.09%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
24.55%27.27%4.55%———36.36%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+18.18%—————18.18%
Total40.91%36.36%18.18%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.68 0.86 +1.82
SD 1.76 0.89 2.28
CV 0.65 1.03 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%4.55%——9.09%27.27%
113.64%9.09%4.55%9.09%—4.55%40.91%
2——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
34.55%4.55%—4.55%——13.64%
44.55%—4.55%———9.09%
5+———————
Total22.73%27.27%18.18%18.18%—13.64%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 2.00 -0.64
SD 1.29 1.95 2.61
CV 0.95 0.98 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—9.09%4.55%4.55%4.55%—22.73%
122.73%4.55%4.55%4.55%——36.36%
29.09%4.55%4.55%—9.09%—27.27%
39.09%4.55%————13.64%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.91%22.73%13.64%9.09%13.64%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.32 +0.00
SD 0.99 1.46 1.95
CV 0.75 1.11 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1502 37 32.31 +4.69 96.0% 23 26 30 33 35 37 41
Glentoran 1409 33 31.86 +1.14 70.0% 24 26 30 32 34 37 39
Coleraine 1319 31 28.43 +2.57 80.0% 19 23 26 29 31 34 40
Crusaders 1280 26 22.47 +3.53 80.0% 12 16 19 22 25 28 31
Cliftonville 1218 24 20.17 +3.83 86.0% 11 13 18 20 23 25 30
Portadown 1207 24 22.72 +1.28 69.0% 16 17 20 23 25 29 34
Ballymena United 1150 20 23.08 -3.08 23.0% 10 17 21 23 26 29 31
Lisburn Distillery 1108 18 15.44 +2.56 80.0% 5 9 13 16 18 21 26
Glenavon 1046 15 18.56 -3.56 20.0% 8 12 17 18 21 25 27
Ards 1010 14 16.22 -2.22 33.0% 9 11 14 16 18 22 24
Larne 1010 13 19.22 -6.22 9.0% 9 12 16 19 22 25 29
Bangor 906 9 13.52 -4.52 11.0% 5 8 11 13 15 20 26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.61%
Slight Edge
46.21%18.18%35.61%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 36.99 Elo pts.
157 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.20 goals
Neutral
-2+0.24+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
52%
Linfield, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.18/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.95 * Some Luck: 2.95 to 4.42 * Lucky: 4.42 to 5.9 * Wild Swing: 5.9 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.18 * Close: 1.18 to 1.76 * Off: 1.76 to 2.35 * Way Off: 2.35 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.55 points
Some Luck
03.699
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.17
Pinpoint
01.473
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
96.00%
Linfield
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
9.00%
Larne
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.22
Top-Heavy
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 176.87
2.05
Strong Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
81%
Wide Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 97%
97%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
57%
Frequent
0%48%100%
Blowouts
Expected
22%
Occasional
0%29%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.90
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.58
Some Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
20%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.87
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.98
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.126
Well Within Noise
00.1390.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Linfield52.00%25.00%18.00%3.00%2.00%———————
Glentoran36.00%46.00%13.00%2.00%3.00%———————
Coleraine11.00%24.00%36.00%13.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%—1.00%———
Crusaders—2.00%8.00%25.00%14.00%13.00%16.00%9.00%5.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%
Cliftonville——4.00%10.00%13.00%13.00%15.00%17.00%12.00%8.00%5.00%3.00%
Portadown1.00%—11.00%17.00%19.00%18.00%12.00%14.00%6.00%2.00%——
Ballymena United—2.00%7.00%19.00%23.00%20.00%16.00%4.00%4.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%
Lisburn Distillery———1.00%1.00%4.00%4.00%12.00%10.00%25.00%24.00%19.00%
Glenavon——2.00%4.00%5.00%9.00%12.00%17.00%19.00%17.00%12.00%3.00%
Ards———1.00%1.00%4.00%7.00%9.00%18.00%24.00%18.00%18.00%
Larne—1.00%1.00%5.00%8.00%14.00%14.00%16.00%17.00%7.00%12.00%5.00%
Bangor————2.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%8.00%10.00%26.00%49.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ards 100%
Ballymena United 100%
Bangor 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Coleraine 100%
Crusaders 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Larne 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Portadown 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1981-11-21 Ballymena United D 0-050.0 1163 1237 38.40% 19.27% 42.33%-0.23 +0.4 1
1981-11-21 @ Ards D 0-050.0 1237 1163 42.33% 19.27% 38.40%+0.23 -0.4 1
1981-11-21 Cliftonville W 3-138.9 1154 1093 56.11% 19.19% 24.70%+0.63 +18.2 2
1981-11-21 @ Coleraine L 1-338.9 1093 1154 24.70% 19.19% 56.11%-0.63 -18.2 0
1981-11-21 Portadown W 2-141.9 1201 1163 53.32% 19.23% 27.45%+0.47 +11.5 2
1981-11-21 @ Crusaders L 1-241.9 1163 1201 27.45% 19.23% 53.32%-0.47 -11.5 0
1981-11-21 Larne D 3-363.1 1198 1153 54.21% 19.22% 26.57%+0.52 -1.6 1
1981-11-21 @ Glenavon D 3-363.1 1153 1198 26.57% 19.22% 54.21%-0.52 +1.6 1
1981-11-21 Glentoran L 1-250.9 1346 1309 53.29% 19.23% 27.48%+0.47 -20.1 0
1981-11-21 @ Linfield W 2-150.9 1309 1346 27.48% 19.23% 53.29%-0.47 +20.1 2
1981-11-21 Bangor W 4-037.2 1025 1123 35.01% 19.25% 45.74%-0.39 +66.5 2
1981-11-21 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-437.2 1123 1025 45.74% 19.25% 35.01%+0.39 -66.5 0
1981-11-28 Glenavon D 0-050.1 1237 1196 53.67% 19.22% 27.11%+0.49 -2.7 2
1981-11-28 @ Ballymena United D 0-050.1 1196 1237 27.11% 19.22% 53.67%-0.49 +2.7 2
1981-11-28 Coleraine L 1-537.6 1056 1172 32.66% 19.23% 48.11%-0.50 -42.0 0
1981-11-28 @ Bangor W 5-137.6 1172 1056 48.11% 19.23% 32.66%+0.50 +42.0 4
1981-11-28 Ards W 4-036.9 1074 1164 36.21% 19.26% 44.53%-0.33 +65.0 2
1981-11-28 @ Cliftonville L 0-436.9 1164 1074 44.53% 19.26% 36.21%+0.33 -65.0 1
1981-11-28 Crusaders W 6-133.0 1329 1212 61.81% 19.06% 19.12%+0.98 +32.5 4
1981-11-28 @ Glentoran L 1-633.0 1212 1329 19.12% 19.06% 61.81%-0.98 -32.5 2
1981-11-28 Linfield L 2-346.6 1155 1326 25.84% 19.13% 55.03%-0.85 -10.3 1
1981-11-28 @ Larne W 3-246.6 1326 1155 55.03% 19.13% 25.84%+0.85 +10.3 2
1981-11-28 Lisburn Distillery W 1-036.3 1152 1091 56.04% 19.19% 24.77%+0.62 +11.2 2
1981-11-28 @ Portadown L 0-136.3 1091 1152 24.77% 19.19% 56.04%-0.62 -11.2 2
1981-12-05 Cliftonville D 1-153.6 1014 1139 31.45% 19.22% 49.33%-0.56 +1.6 1
1981-12-05 @ Bangor D 1-153.6 1139 1014 49.33% 19.22% 31.45%+0.56 -1.6 3
1981-12-05 Portadown W 4-243.6 1214 1163 54.93% 19.21% 25.87%+0.56 +16.9 6
1981-12-05 @ Coleraine L 2-443.6 1163 1214 25.87% 19.21% 54.93%-0.56 -16.9 2
1981-12-05 Larne L 2-354.6 1180 1144 53.11% 19.23% 27.66%+0.46 -19.0 2
1981-12-05 @ Crusaders W 3-254.6 1144 1180 27.66% 19.23% 53.11%-0.46 +19.0 3
1981-12-05 Ards D 2-258.8 1199 1099 60.23% 19.11% 20.66%+0.87 -2.8 3
1981-12-05 @ Glenavon D 2-258.8 1099 1199 20.66% 19.11% 60.23%-0.87 +2.8 2
1981-12-05 Ballymena United W 3-031.2 1336 1234 60.44% 19.10% 20.46%+0.89 +25.9 4
1981-12-05 @ Linfield L 0-331.2 1234 1336 20.46% 19.10% 60.44%-0.89 -25.9 2
1981-12-05 Glentoran L 0-528.2 1080 1362 15.42% 18.76% 65.81%-1.55 -32.3 2
1981-12-05 @ Lisburn Distillery W 5-028.2 1362 1080 65.81% 18.76% 15.42%+1.55 +32.3 6
1981-12-12 Bangor W 2-031.6 1146 1016 63.06% 19.02% 17.92%+1.06 +15.8 4
1981-12-12 @ Portadown L 0-231.6 1016 1146 17.92% 19.02% 63.06%-1.06 -15.9 1
1981-12-19 Glentoran W 2-155.3 1000 1394 8.71% 18.19% 73.09%-2.27 +27.6 3
1981-12-19 @ Bangor L 1-255.3 1394 1000 73.09% 18.19% 8.71%+2.27 -27.6 6
1981-12-19 Larne D 0-050.0 1231 1163 56.82% 19.18% 24.00%+0.67 -3.4 7
1981-12-19 @ Coleraine D 0-050.0 1163 1231 24.00% 19.18% 56.82%-0.67 +3.4 4
1981-12-19 Ards W 1-036.4 1161 1101 55.88% 19.19% 24.93%+0.61 +11.2 4
1981-12-19 @ Crusaders L 0-136.4 1101 1161 24.93% 19.19% 55.88%-0.61 -11.2 2
1981-12-19 Glenavon W 2-138.6 1362 1196 66.05% 18.90% 15.05%+1.29 +6.8 6
1981-12-19 @ Linfield L 1-238.6 1196 1362 15.05% 18.90% 66.05%-1.29 -6.8 3
1981-12-19 Cliftonville D 2-258.8 1162 1138 51.72% 19.24% 29.04%+0.39 -1.5 5
1981-12-19 @ Portadown D 2-258.8 1138 1162 29.04% 19.24% 51.72%-0.39 +1.5 4
1981-12-26 Lisburn Distillery W 2-034.4 1090 1048 53.93% 19.22% 26.85%+0.50 +22.5 4
1981-12-26 @ Ards L 0-234.4 1048 1090 26.85% 19.22% 53.93%-0.50 -22.5 2
1981-12-26 Coleraine W 4-246.4 1208 1228 46.01% 19.28% 34.71%+0.11 +21.7 4
1981-12-26 @ Ballymena United L 2-446.4 1228 1208 34.71% 19.28% 46.01%-0.11 -21.6 7
1981-12-26 Linfield L 0-429.8 1139 1369 19.81% 18.96% 61.23%-1.22 -32.8 4
1981-12-26 @ Cliftonville W 4-029.8 1369 1139 61.23% 18.96% 19.81%+1.22 +32.8 8
1981-12-26 Crusaders D 2-258.8 1189 1172 50.87% 19.25% 29.88%+0.35 -1.4 4
1981-12-26 @ Glenavon D 2-258.8 1172 1189 29.88% 19.25% 50.87%-0.35 +1.4 5
1981-12-26 Portadown W 3-135.5 1366 1160 68.94% 18.75% 12.32%+1.54 +9.8 8
1981-12-26 @ Glentoran L 1-335.5 1160 1366 12.32% 18.75% 68.94%-1.54 -9.8 5
1981-12-26 Bangor W 2-138.6 1167 1028 63.83% 19.00% 17.18%+1.12 +7.6 6
1981-12-26 @ Larne L 1-238.6 1028 1167 17.18% 19.00% 63.83%-1.12 -7.6 3
1981-12-28 Crusaders D 0-050.0 1230 1173 55.53% 19.20% 25.28%+0.59 -3.1 5
1981-12-28 @ Ballymena United D 0-050.0 1173 1230 25.28% 19.20% 55.53%-0.59 +3.1 6
1981-12-28 Glenavon L 2-349.8 1106 1188 37.30% 19.27% 43.44%-0.28 -14.1 4
1981-12-28 @ Cliftonville W 3-249.8 1188 1106 43.44% 19.27% 37.30%+0.28 +14.1 6
1981-12-28 Lisburn Distillery W 1-033.7 1174 1025 64.68% 18.96% 16.36%+1.18 +7.7 8
1981-12-28 @ Larne L 0-133.7 1025 1174 16.36% 18.96% 64.68%-1.18 -7.7 2
1982-01-01 Ballymena United L 1-338.1 1020 1227 22.06% 19.03% 58.90%-1.08 -16.5 3
1982-01-01 @ Bangor W 3-138.1 1227 1020 58.90% 19.03% 22.06%+1.08 +16.5 7
1982-01-01 Ards W 9-132.3 1206 1113 59.51% 19.12% 21.37%+0.83 +55.5 9
1982-01-01 @ Coleraine L 1-932.3 1113 1206 21.37% 19.12% 59.51%-0.83 -55.5 4
1982-01-01 Linfield L 1-240.3 1177 1402 20.23% 18.98% 60.79%-1.20 -8.8 6
1982-01-01 @ Crusaders W 2-140.3 1402 1177 60.79% 18.98% 20.23%+1.20 +8.8 10
1982-01-01 Cliftonville L 1-255.6 1376 1092 73.40% 18.37% 8.24%+2.04 -27.8 8
1982-01-01 @ Glentoran W 2-155.6 1092 1376 8.24% 18.37% 73.40%-2.04 +27.8 6
1982-01-01 Glenavon W 4-252.7 1017 1202 24.37% 19.09% 56.54%-0.94 +32.9 4
1982-01-01 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-452.7 1202 1017 56.54% 19.09% 24.37%+0.94 -32.9 6
1982-01-01 Larne W 3-035.4 1151 1182 44.41% 19.28% 36.31%+0.04 +42.1 7
1982-01-01 @ Portadown L 0-335.4 1182 1151 36.31% 19.28% 44.41%-0.04 -42.1 8
1982-01-02 Portadown L 1-348.2 1243 1193 54.83% 19.21% 25.97%+0.55 -35.8 7
1982-01-02 @ Ballymena United W 3-148.2 1193 1243 25.97% 19.21% 54.83%-0.55 +35.8 9
1982-01-02 Coleraine L 0-335.4 1169 1261 35.81% 19.26% 44.93%-0.35 -41.6 6
1982-01-02 @ Glenavon W 3-035.4 1261 1169 44.93% 19.26% 35.81%+0.35 +41.6 11
1982-01-02 Glentoran L 0-135.8 1140 1348 21.88% 19.03% 59.09%-1.09 -10.0 8
1982-01-02 @ Larne W 1-035.8 1348 1140 59.09% 19.03% 21.88%+1.09 +10.0 10
1982-01-09 Linfield W 3-147.6 1303 1411 33.76% 19.24% 47.00%-0.45 +31.1 13
1982-01-09 @ Coleraine L 1-347.6 1411 1303 47.00% 19.24% 33.76%+0.45 -31.1 10
1982-01-16 Glentoran L 1-730.4 1057 1358 14.00% 18.68% 67.32%-1.68 -28.9 4
1982-01-16 @ Ards W 7-130.4 1358 1057 67.32% 18.68% 14.00%+1.68 +28.9 12
1982-01-16 Larne W 2-033.3 1207 1130 57.86% 19.16% 22.98%+0.73 +19.7 9
1982-01-16 @ Ballymena United L 0-233.3 1130 1207 22.98% 19.16% 57.86%-0.73 -19.7 8
1982-01-16 Lisburn Distillery W 1-036.0 1120 1050 57.04% 19.17% 23.78%+0.68 +10.8 8
1982-01-16 @ Cliftonville L 0-136.0 1050 1120 23.78% 19.17% 57.04%-0.68 -10.8 4
1982-01-16 Coleraine L 3-450.1 1168 1334 26.41% 19.14% 54.45%-0.82 -10.3 6
1982-01-16 @ Crusaders W 4-350.1 1334 1168 54.45% 19.14% 26.41%+0.82 +10.3 15
1982-01-16 Portadown L 0-236.8 1128 1229 34.62% 19.25% 46.13%-0.41 -27.9 6
1982-01-16 @ Glenavon W 2-036.8 1229 1128 46.13% 19.25% 34.62%+0.41 +27.9 11
1982-01-19 Lisburn Distillery D 1-154.1 1379 1040 75.85% 18.04% 6.12%+2.40 -7.1 11
1982-01-19 @ Linfield D 1-154.1 1040 1379 6.12% 18.04% 75.85%-2.40 +7.1 5
1982-01-20 Bangor W 2-035.0 1028 1004 51.79% 19.24% 28.97%+0.39 +24.0 6
1982-01-20 @ Ards L 0-235.0 1004 1028 28.97% 19.24% 51.79%-0.39 -24.0 3
1982-01-20 Crusaders L 0-142.5 1131 1157 45.07% 19.28% 35.65%+0.07 -18.4 8
1982-01-20 @ Cliftonville W 1-042.5 1157 1131 35.65% 19.28% 45.07%-0.07 +18.4 8
1982-01-20 Coleraine D 2-261.0 1387 1344 53.95% 19.22% 26.83%+0.51 -1.9 13
1982-01-20 @ Glentoran D 2-261.0 1344 1387 26.83% 19.22% 53.95%-0.51 +1.8 16
1982-01-23 Crusaders W 2-150.8 979 1176 23.12% 19.06% 57.82%-1.01 +21.7 5
1982-01-23 @ Bangor L 1-250.8 1176 979 57.82% 19.06% 23.12%+1.01 -21.7 8
1982-01-23 Ballymena United D 1-153.7 1113 1227 32.85% 19.23% 47.92%-0.49 +1.3 9
1982-01-23 @ Cliftonville D 1-153.7 1227 1113 47.92% 19.23% 32.85%+0.49 -1.3 10
1982-01-23 Lisburn Distillery W 3-133.6 1346 1047 74.16% 18.28% 7.57%+2.14 +6.1 18
1982-01-23 @ Coleraine L 1-333.6 1047 1346 7.57% 18.28% 74.16%-2.14 -6.1 5
1982-01-23 Glenavon W 3-134.0 1385 1100 73.50% 18.36% 8.15%+2.05 +6.6 15
1982-01-23 @ Glentoran L 1-334.0 1100 1385 8.15% 18.36% 73.50%-2.05 -6.6 6
1982-01-23 Ards L 2-355.2 1110 1052 55.70% 19.20% 25.10%+0.60 -19.9 8
1982-01-23 @ Larne W 3-255.2 1052 1110 25.10% 19.20% 55.70%-0.60 +19.9 8
1982-01-23 Linfield L 0-139.8 1256 1372 32.64% 19.23% 48.13%-0.50 -14.1 11
1982-01-23 @ Portadown W 1-039.8 1372 1256 48.13% 19.23% 32.64%+0.50 +14.1 13
1982-02-06 Ards W 2-138.3 1226 1072 65.04% 18.95% 16.01%+1.21 +7.2 12
1982-02-06 @ Ballymena United L 1-238.3 1072 1226 16.01% 18.95% 65.04%-1.21 -7.2 8
1982-02-06 Lisburn Distillery D 3-363.0 1001 1041 43.28% 19.28% 37.44%-0.02 -0.3 6
1982-02-06 @ Bangor D 3-363.0 1041 1001 37.44% 19.28% 43.28%+0.02 +0.3 6
1982-02-06 Coleraine D 2-259.1 1114 1352 19.00% 18.93% 62.07%-1.28 +3.0 10
1982-02-06 @ Cliftonville D 2-259.1 1352 1114 62.07% 18.93% 19.00%+1.28 -3.0 19
1982-02-06 Linfield L 1-251.5 1392 1386 49.33% 19.26% 31.40%+0.27 -18.7 15
1982-02-06 @ Glentoran W 2-151.5 1386 1392 31.40% 19.26% 49.33%-0.27 +18.7 15
1982-02-06 Glenavon W 4-033.2 1090 1093 48.25% 19.27% 32.48%+0.22 +50.2 10
1982-02-06 @ Larne L 0-433.2 1093 1090 32.48% 19.27% 48.25%-0.22 -50.2 6
1982-02-06 Crusaders W 1-035.6 1242 1154 59.01% 19.13% 21.86%+0.80 +10.0 13
1982-02-06 @ Portadown L 0-135.6 1154 1242 21.86% 19.13% 59.01%-0.80 -10.0 8
1982-02-09 Bangor W 4-236.7 1405 1001 78.06% 17.60% 4.33%+2.80 +3.2 17
1982-02-09 @ Linfield L 2-436.7 1001 1405 4.33% 17.60% 78.06%-2.80 -3.2 6
1982-02-13 Cliftonville L 0-141.4 1065 1117 41.51% 19.28% 39.21%-0.09 -17.1 8
1982-02-13 @ Ards W 1-041.4 1117 1065 39.21% 19.28% 41.51%+0.09 +17.2 12
1982-02-13 Bangor W 3-240.0 1349 998 76.30% 17.96% 5.74%+2.47 +2.6 21
1982-02-13 @ Coleraine L 2-340.0 998 1349 5.74% 17.96% 76.30%-2.47 -2.6 6
1982-02-13 Glentoran W 3-043.1 1144 1373 19.87% 18.96% 61.17%-1.22 +66.6 10
1982-02-13 @ Crusaders L 0-343.1 1373 1144 61.17% 18.96% 19.87%+1.22 -66.6 15
1982-02-13 Ballymena United D 1-153.7 1043 1233 23.81% 19.08% 57.11%-0.97 +3.1 7
1982-02-13 @ Glenavon D 1-153.7 1233 1043 57.11% 19.08% 23.81%+0.97 -3.1 13
1982-02-13 Larne W 2-136.6 1408 1140 72.61% 18.45% 8.94%+1.94 +4.1 19
1982-02-13 @ Linfield L 1-236.6 1140 1408 8.94% 18.45% 72.61%-1.94 -4.2 10
1982-02-13 Portadown W 3-042.2 1041 1252 21.56% 19.02% 59.42%-1.11 +64.8 8
1982-02-13 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-342.2 1252 1041 59.42% 19.02% 21.56%+1.11 -64.8 13
1982-02-20 Glenavon L 1-246.0 995 1046 41.66% 19.28% 39.06%-0.09 -16.2 6
1982-02-20 @ Bangor W 2-146.0 1046 995 39.06% 19.28% 41.66%+0.09 +16.2 9
1982-02-20 Ballymena United W 3-138.9 1307 1230 57.81% 19.16% 23.04%+0.72 +17.1 17
1982-02-20 @ Glentoran L 1-338.9 1230 1307 23.04% 19.16% 57.81%-0.72 -17.1 13
1982-02-27 Glenavon L 2-449.8 1048 1062 46.73% 19.28% 33.99%+0.14 -27.7 8
1982-02-27 @ Ards W 4-249.8 1062 1048 33.99% 19.28% 46.73%-0.14 +27.7 11
1982-02-27 Linfield D 1-154.7 1213 1413 22.74% 19.05% 58.21%-1.04 +3.3 14
1982-02-27 @ Ballymena United D 1-154.7 1413 1213 58.21% 19.05% 22.74%+1.04 -3.3 20
1982-02-27 Bangor W 1-033.6 1134 979 65.19% 18.94% 15.87%+1.22 +7.5 14
1982-02-27 @ Cliftonville L 0-133.6 979 1134 15.87% 18.94% 65.19%-1.22 -7.5 6
1982-02-27 Lisburn Distillery W 6-130.3 1324 1106 69.74% 18.69% 11.57%+1.62 +20.6 19
1982-02-27 @ Glentoran L 1-630.3 1106 1324 11.57% 18.69% 69.74%-1.62 -20.6 8
1982-02-27 Crusaders L 0-140.5 1136 1211 38.29% 19.27% 42.43%-0.24 -16.1 10
1982-02-27 @ Larne W 1-040.5 1211 1136 42.43% 19.27% 38.29%+0.24 +16.1 12
1982-02-27 Coleraine L 2-444.3 1188 1352 26.66% 19.14% 54.20%-0.81 -17.3 13
1982-02-27 @ Portadown W 4-244.3 1352 1188 54.20% 19.14% 26.66%+0.81 +17.3 23
1982-03-06 Portadown L 0-135.7 971 1170 22.85% 19.06% 58.10%-1.03 -10.4 6
1982-03-06 @ Bangor W 1-035.7 1170 971 58.10% 19.06% 22.85%+1.03 +10.4 15
1982-03-06 Glentoran L 1-251.2 1369 1344 51.83% 19.24% 28.93%+0.39 -19.6 23
1982-03-06 @ Coleraine W 2-151.2 1344 1369 28.93% 19.24% 51.83%-0.39 +19.6 21
1982-03-06 Ballymena United W 2-143.0 1227 1216 50.04% 19.26% 30.70%+0.30 +12.6 14
1982-03-06 @ Crusaders L 1-243.0 1216 1227 30.70% 19.26% 50.04%-0.30 -12.6 14
1982-03-06 Cliftonville D 2-258.7 1090 1142 41.53% 19.28% 39.19%-0.09 -0.2 12
1982-03-06 @ Glenavon D 2-258.7 1142 1090 39.19% 19.28% 41.53%+0.09 +0.1 15
1982-03-06 Ards W 5-024.6 1409 1020 77.58% 17.71% 4.71%+2.71 +10.4 22
1982-03-06 @ Linfield L 0-524.6 1020 1409 4.71% 17.71% 77.58%-2.71 -10.4 8
1982-03-06 Larne W 1-040.0 1085 1120 43.87% 19.28% 36.85%+0.01 +15.6 10
1982-03-06 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-140.0 1120 1085 36.85% 19.28% 43.87%-0.01 -15.6 10
1982-03-13 Crusaders D 0-049.9 1010 1239 19.82% 18.96% 61.21%-1.22 +4.4 9
1982-03-13 @ Ards D 0-049.9 1239 1010 61.21% 18.96% 19.82%+1.22 -4.4 15
1982-03-13 Lisburn Distillery D 1-153.7 1203 1101 60.46% 19.10% 20.44%+0.89 -3.8 15
1982-03-13 @ Ballymena United D 1-153.7 1101 1203 20.44% 19.10% 60.46%-0.89 +3.8 11
1982-03-13 Portadown W 1-040.2 1142 1181 43.35% 19.28% 37.37%-0.01 +15.8 17
1982-03-13 @ Cliftonville L 0-140.2 1181 1142 37.37% 19.28% 43.35%+0.01 -15.8 15
1982-03-13 Linfield L 0-627.7 1090 1420 12.11% 18.54% 69.35%-1.86 -30.6 12
1982-03-13 @ Glenavon W 6-027.7 1420 1090 69.35% 18.54% 12.11%+1.86 +30.6 24
1982-03-13 Bangor W 4-024.4 1364 961 78.02% 17.61% 4.37%+2.80 +7.8 23
1982-03-13 @ Glentoran L 0-424.4 961 1364 4.37% 17.61% 78.02%-2.80 -7.8 6
1982-03-13 Coleraine L 2-538.4 1105 1350 18.42% 18.91% 62.68%-1.32 -17.2 10
1982-03-13 @ Larne W 5-238.4 1350 1105 62.68% 18.91% 18.42%+1.32 +17.2 25
1982-03-20 Glentoran L 1-335.5 1059 1372 13.22% 18.63% 68.15%-1.75 -10.4 12
1982-03-20 @ Glenavon W 3-135.5 1372 1059 68.15% 18.63% 13.22%+1.75 +10.4 25
1982-03-20 Crusaders L 1-242.9 1104 1235 30.75% 19.21% 50.05%-0.60 -12.6 11
1982-03-20 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-142.9 1235 1104 50.05% 19.21% 30.75%+0.60 +12.6 17
1982-03-23 Linfield L 1-235.6 1014 1450 6.98% 17.93% 75.08%-2.54 -3.2 9
1982-03-23 @ Ards W 2-135.6 1450 1014 75.08% 17.93% 6.98%+2.54 +3.3 26
1982-03-27 Larne L 0-432.5 953 1087 30.28% 19.20% 50.51%-0.62 -47.3 6
1982-03-27 @ Bangor W 4-032.5 1087 953 50.51% 19.20% 30.28%+0.62 +47.3 12
1982-03-27 Ballymena United W 2-031.4 1367 1199 66.16% 18.90% 14.94%+1.30 +13.4 27
1982-03-27 @ Coleraine L 0-231.4 1199 1367 14.94% 18.90% 66.16%-1.30 -13.5 15
1982-03-27 Glenavon W 2-137.3 1248 1049 68.47% 18.78% 12.75%+1.50 +5.8 19
1982-03-27 @ Crusaders L 1-237.3 1049 1248 12.75% 18.78% 68.47%-1.50 -5.8 12
1982-03-27 Cliftonville W 1-031.9 1454 1158 73.98% 18.30% 7.72%+2.12 +3.8 28
1982-03-27 @ Linfield L 0-131.9 1158 1454 7.72% 18.30% 73.98%-2.12 -3.8 17
1982-03-27 Ards W 1-035.6 1092 1011 58.22% 19.15% 22.63%+0.75 +10.3 13
1982-03-27 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-135.6 1011 1092 22.63% 19.15% 58.22%-0.75 -10.3 9
1982-03-27 Glentoran L 0-430.3 1165 1382 21.02% 19.00% 59.98%-1.14 -34.6 15
1982-03-27 @ Portadown W 4-030.3 1382 1165 59.98% 19.00% 21.02%+1.14 +34.6 27
1982-03-31 Portadown W 2-028.8 1457 1130 75.33% 18.12% 6.55%+2.31 +6.2 30
1982-03-31 @ Linfield L 0-228.8 1130 1457 6.55% 18.12% 75.33%-2.31 -6.2 15
1982-04-03 Coleraine L 0-327.1 1001 1380 9.38% 18.28% 72.35%-2.18 -12.6 9
1982-04-03 @ Ards W 3-027.1 1380 1001 72.35% 18.28% 9.38%+2.18 +12.6 29
1982-04-03 Bangor L 1-255.3 1186 906 73.23% 18.39% 8.38%+2.02 -27.7 15
1982-04-03 @ Ballymena United W 2-155.3 906 1186 8.38% 18.39% 73.23%-2.02 +27.7 8
1982-04-03 Glentoran L 0-134.6 1154 1417 16.91% 18.84% 64.25%-1.44 -8.0 17
1982-04-03 @ Cliftonville W 1-034.6 1417 1154 64.25% 18.84% 16.91%+1.44 +8.0 29
1982-04-03 Lisburn Distillery W 3-143.5 1043 1102 40.47% 19.28% 40.25%-0.14 +27.3 14
1982-04-03 @ Glenavon L 1-343.5 1102 1043 40.25% 19.28% 40.47%+0.14 -27.3 13
1982-04-03 Portadown L 0-339.4 1135 1124 49.99% 19.26% 30.75%+0.30 -55.1 12
1982-04-03 @ Larne W 3-039.4 1124 1135 30.75% 19.26% 49.99%-0.30 +55.1 17
1982-04-03 Crusaders D 2-261.0 1463 1253 69.22% 18.73% 12.06%+1.57 -4.2 31
1982-04-03 @ Linfield D 2-261.0 1253 1463 12.06% 18.73% 69.22%-1.57 +4.2 20
1982-04-06 Cliftonville L 0-238.2 1080 1146 39.48% 19.28% 41.24%-0.18 -31.0 12
1982-04-06 @ Larne W 2-038.2 1146 1080 41.24% 19.28% 39.48%+0.18 +31.0 19
1982-04-06 Ballymena United L 2-349.7 1075 1158 37.02% 19.26% 43.72%-0.30 -14.0 13
1982-04-06 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-249.7 1158 1075 43.72% 19.26% 37.02%+0.30 +14.0 17
1982-04-06 Ards D 1-153.7 1179 988 67.93% 18.81% 13.26%+1.45 -5.3 18
1982-04-06 @ Portadown D 1-153.7 988 1179 13.26% 18.81% 67.93%-1.45 +5.4 10
1982-04-10 Ards L 0-141.0 934 993 40.37% 19.28% 40.36%-0.15 -16.8 8
1982-04-10 @ Bangor W 1-041.0 993 934 40.36% 19.28% 40.37%+0.15 +16.8 12
1982-04-10 Glenavon W 4-025.5 1393 1070 75.16% 18.14% 6.70%+2.29 +11.9 31
1982-04-10 @ Coleraine L 0-425.5 1070 1393 6.70% 18.14% 75.16%-2.29 -11.9 14
1982-04-10 Cliftonville W 2-140.6 1258 1177 58.23% 19.15% 22.62%+0.75 +9.7 22
1982-04-10 @ Crusaders L 1-240.6 1177 1258 22.62% 19.15% 58.23%-0.75 -9.7 19
1982-04-10 Larne W 4-130.8 1424 1049 77.15% 17.80% 5.05%+2.62 +5.8 31
1982-04-10 @ Glentoran L 1-430.8 1049 1424 5.05% 17.80% 77.15%-2.62 -5.8 12
1982-04-10 Linfield L 0-727.1 1061 1459 8.50% 18.17% 73.33%-2.30 -25.3 13
1982-04-10 @ Lisburn Distillery W 7-027.1 1459 1061 73.33% 18.17% 8.50%+2.30 +25.3 33
1982-04-10 Ballymena United W 1-038.6 1174 1172 48.85% 19.27% 31.89%+0.25 +13.8 20
1982-04-10 @ Portadown L 0-138.6 1172 1174 31.89% 19.27% 48.85%-0.25 -13.8 17
1982-04-12 Bangor D 1-153.6 1058 917 64.04% 18.99% 16.97%+1.13 -4.5 15
1982-04-12 @ Glenavon D 1-153.6 917 1058 16.97% 18.99% 64.04%-1.13 +4.5 9
1982-04-13 Portadown L 0-136.4 1010 1188 25.15% 19.11% 55.74%-0.89 -11.3 12
1982-04-13 @ Ards W 1-036.4 1188 1010 55.74% 19.11% 25.15%+0.89 +11.3 22
1982-04-13 Glentoran W 1-049.1 1158 1430 16.18% 18.80% 65.02%-1.49 +25.9 19
1982-04-13 @ Ballymena United L 0-149.1 1430 1158 65.02% 18.80% 16.18%+1.49 -25.9 31
1982-04-13 Larne W 4-134.9 1167 1043 62.51% 19.04% 18.45%+1.02 +19.9 21
1982-04-13 @ Cliftonville L 1-434.9 1043 1167 18.45% 19.04% 62.51%-1.02 -19.9 12
1982-04-13 Lisburn Distillery L 1-352.5 1267 1035 70.60% 18.63% 10.77%+1.71 -46.2 22
1982-04-13 @ Crusaders W 3-152.5 1035 1267 10.77% 18.63% 70.60%-1.71 +46.1 15
1982-04-13 Coleraine W 2-146.4 1485 1405 58.11% 19.15% 22.73%+0.74 +9.8 35
1982-04-13 @ Linfield L 1-246.4 1405 1485 22.73% 19.15% 58.11%-0.74 -9.8 31
1982-04-17 Linfield L 0-524.0 921 1494 3.36% 16.93% 79.71%-3.41 -7.3 9
1982-04-17 @ Bangor W 5-024.0 1494 921 79.71% 16.93% 3.36%+3.41 +7.3 37
1982-04-17 Crusaders L 0-247.2 1395 1221 66.65% 18.87% 14.47%+1.34 -50.1 31
1982-04-17 @ Coleraine W 2-047.2 1221 1395 14.47% 18.87% 66.65%-1.34 +50.2 24
1982-04-17 Ards W 2-027.3 1404 999 78.10% 17.60% 4.31%+2.81 +4.1 33
1982-04-17 @ Glentoran L 0-227.3 999 1404 4.31% 17.60% 78.10%-2.81 -4.1 12
1982-04-17 Ballymena United D 1-153.6 1023 1184 26.99% 19.15% 53.86%-0.79 +2.5 13
1982-04-17 @ Larne D 1-153.6 1184 1023 53.86% 19.15% 26.99%+0.79 -2.4 20
1982-04-17 Cliftonville D 2-258.8 1082 1187 34.03% 19.24% 46.72%-0.43 +0.8 16
1982-04-17 @ Lisburn Distillery D 2-258.8 1187 1082 46.72% 19.24% 34.03%+0.43 -0.8 22
1982-04-17 Glenavon W 2-138.5 1199 1054 64.37% 18.98% 16.66%+1.16 +7.4 24
1982-04-17 @ Portadown L 1-238.5 1054 1199 16.66% 18.98% 64.37%-1.16 -7.4 15
1982-04-20 Cliftonville L 1-346.0 1182 1186 48.06% 19.27% 32.66%+0.21 -31.7 20
1982-04-20 @ Ballymena United W 3-146.0 1186 1182 32.66% 19.27% 48.06%-0.21 +31.7 24
1982-04-20 Bangor W 5-129.0 1271 914 76.51% 17.92% 5.57%+2.51 +8.3 26
1982-04-20 @ Crusaders L 1-529.0 914 1271 5.57% 17.92% 76.51%-2.51 -8.3 9
1982-04-20 Coleraine W 1-048.3 1082 1345 16.93% 18.84% 64.23%-1.43 +25.6 18
1982-04-20 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-148.3 1345 1082 64.23% 18.84% 16.93%+1.43 -25.5 31
1982-04-21 Larne W 1-039.7 995 1025 44.51% 19.28% 36.20%+0.04 +15.3 14
1982-04-21 @ Ards L 0-139.7 1025 995 36.20% 19.28% 44.51%-0.04 -15.4 13

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1982-01-01 8.24% Cliftonville 1092 2 @ Glentoran 1376 1
2 1982-04-03 8.38% Bangor 906 2 @ Ballymena United 1186 1
3 1981-12-19 8.71% @ Bangor 1000 2 Glentoran 1394 1
4 1982-04-13 10.77% Lisburn Distillery 1035 3 @ Crusaders 1267 1
5 1982-04-17 14.47% Crusaders 1221 2 @ Coleraine 1395 0
6 1982-04-13 16.18% @ Ballymena United 1158 1 Glentoran 1430 0
7 1982-04-20 16.93% @ Lisburn Distillery 1082 1 Coleraine 1345 0
8 1982-02-13 19.87% @ Crusaders 1144 3 Glentoran 1373 0
9 1982-02-13 21.56% @ Lisburn Distillery 1041 3 Portadown 1252 0
10 1982-01-23 23.12% @ Bangor 979 2 Crusaders 1176 1
11 1982-01-01 24.37% @ Lisburn Distillery 1017 4 Glenavon 1202 2
12 1982-01-23 25.10% Ards 1052 3 @ Larne 1110 2
13 1982-01-02 25.97% Portadown 1193 3 @ Ballymena United 1243 1
14 1981-11-21 27.48% Glentoran 1309 2 @ Linfield 1346 1
15 1981-12-05 27.66% Larne 1144 3 @ Crusaders 1180 2
16 1982-03-06 28.93% Glentoran 1344 2 @ Coleraine 1369 1
17 1982-04-03 30.75% Portadown 1124 3 @ Larne 1135 0
18 1982-02-06 31.40% Linfield 1386 2 @ Glentoran 1392 1
19 1982-04-20 32.66% Cliftonville 1186 3 @ Ballymena United 1182 1
20 1982-01-09 33.76% @ Coleraine 1303 3 Linfield 1411 1
21 1982-02-27 33.99% Glenavon 1062 4 @ Ards 1048 2
22 1981-11-21 35.01% @ Lisburn Distillery 1025 4 Bangor 1123 0
23 1982-01-20 35.65% Crusaders 1157 1 @ Cliftonville 1131 0
24 1981-11-28 36.21% @ Cliftonville 1074 4 Ards 1164 0
25 1982-02-20 39.06% Glenavon 1046 2 @ Bangor 995 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1982-02-13 66.63 @ Crusaders 3 1144 19.87% Glentoran 0 1373 61.17% 18.96%
2 1981-11-21 66.54 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1025 35.01% Bangor 0 1123 45.74% 19.25%
3 1981-11-28 65.03 @ Cliftonville 4 1074 36.21% Ards 0 1164 44.53% 19.26%
4 1982-02-13 64.75 @ Lisburn Distillery 3 1041 21.56% Portadown 0 1252 59.42% 19.02%
5 1982-01-01 55.54 @ Coleraine 9 1206 59.51% Ards 1 1113 21.37% 19.12%
6 1982-04-03 55.09 Portadown 3 1124 30.75% @ Larne 0 1135 49.99% 19.26%
7 1982-02-06 50.20 @ Larne 4 1090 48.25% Glenavon 0 1093 32.48% 19.27%
8 1982-04-17 50.15 Crusaders 2 1221 14.47% @ Coleraine 0 1395 66.65% 18.87%
9 1982-03-27 47.32 Larne 4 1087 50.51% @ Bangor 0 953 30.28% 19.20%
10 1982-04-13 46.15 Lisburn Distillery 3 1035 10.77% @ Crusaders 1 1267 70.60% 18.63%
11 1982-01-01 42.12 @ Portadown 3 1151 44.41% Larne 0 1182 36.31% 19.28%
12 1981-11-28 42.01 Coleraine 5 1172 48.11% @ Bangor 1 1056 32.66% 19.23%
13 1982-01-02 41.64 Coleraine 3 1261 44.93% @ Glenavon 0 1169 35.81% 19.26%
14 1982-01-02 35.77 Portadown 3 1193 25.97% @ Ballymena United 1 1243 54.83% 19.21%
15 1982-03-27 34.56 Glentoran 4 1382 59.98% @ Portadown 0 1165 21.02% 19.00%
16 1982-01-01 32.91 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1017 24.37% Glenavon 2 1202 56.54% 19.09%
17 1981-12-26 32.79 Linfield 4 1369 61.23% @ Cliftonville 0 1139 19.81% 18.96%
18 1981-11-28 32.51 @ Glentoran 6 1329 61.81% Crusaders 1 1212 19.12% 19.06%
19 1981-12-05 32.27 Glentoran 5 1362 65.81% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1080 15.42% 18.76%
20 1982-04-20 31.72 Cliftonville 3 1186 32.66% @ Ballymena United 1 1182 48.06% 19.27%
21 1982-01-09 31.09 @ Coleraine 3 1303 33.76% Linfield 1 1411 47.00% 19.24%
22 1982-04-06 31.04 Cliftonville 2 1146 41.24% @ Larne 0 1080 39.48% 19.28%
23 1982-03-13 30.64 Linfield 6 1420 69.35% @ Glenavon 0 1090 12.11% 18.54%
24 1982-01-16 28.94 Glentoran 7 1358 67.32% @ Ards 1 1057 14.00% 18.68%
25 1982-01-16 27.88 Portadown 2 1229 46.13% @ Glenavon 0 1128 34.62% 19.25%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1981-11-21 63.1 @ Glenavon 3 1198 54.21% Larne 3 1153 26.57% 19.22%
2 1982-02-06 63.0 @ Bangor 3 1001 43.28% Lisburn Distillery 3 1041 37.44% 19.28%
3 1982-01-20 61.0 @ Glentoran 2 1387 53.95% Coleraine 2 1344 26.83% 19.22%
4 1982-04-03 61.0 @ Linfield 2 1463 69.22% Crusaders 2 1253 12.06% 18.73%
5 1982-02-06 59.1 @ Cliftonville 2 1114 19.00% Coleraine 2 1352 62.07% 18.93%
6 1981-12-05 58.8 @ Glenavon 2 1199 60.23% Ards 2 1099 20.66% 19.11%
7 1981-12-19 58.8 @ Portadown 2 1162 51.72% Cliftonville 2 1138 29.04% 19.24%
8 1981-12-26 58.8 @ Glenavon 2 1189 50.87% Crusaders 2 1172 29.88% 19.25%
9 1982-04-17 58.8 @ Lisburn Distillery 2 1082 34.03% Cliftonville 2 1187 46.72% 19.24%
10 1982-03-06 58.7 @ Glenavon 2 1090 41.53% Cliftonville 2 1142 39.19% 19.28%
11 1982-01-01 55.6 Cliftonville 2 1092 8.24% @ Glentoran 1 1376 73.40% 18.37%
12 1981-12-19 55.3 @ Bangor 2 1000 8.71% Glentoran 1 1394 73.09% 18.19%
13 1982-04-03 55.3 Bangor 2 906 8.38% @ Ballymena United 1 1186 73.23% 18.39%
14 1982-01-23 55.2 Ards 3 1052 25.10% @ Larne 2 1110 55.70% 19.20%
15 1982-02-27 54.7 @ Ballymena United 1 1213 22.74% Linfield 1 1413 58.21% 19.05%
16 1981-12-05 54.6 Larne 3 1144 27.66% @ Crusaders 2 1180 53.11% 19.23%
17 1982-01-19 54.1 @ Linfield 1 1379 75.85% Lisburn Distillery 1 1040 6.12% 18.04%
18 1982-01-23 53.7 @ Cliftonville 1 1113 32.85% Ballymena United 1 1227 47.92% 19.23%
19 1982-02-13 53.7 @ Glenavon 1 1043 23.81% Ballymena United 1 1233 57.11% 19.08%
20 1982-03-13 53.7 @ Ballymena United 1 1203 60.46% Lisburn Distillery 1 1101 20.44% 19.10%
21 1982-04-06 53.7 @ Portadown 1 1179 67.93% Ards 1 988 13.26% 18.81%
22 1981-12-05 53.6 @ Bangor 1 1014 31.45% Cliftonville 1 1139 49.33% 19.22%
23 1982-04-12 53.6 @ Glenavon 1 1058 64.04% Bangor 1 917 16.97% 18.99%
24 1982-04-17 53.6 @ Larne 1 1023 26.99% Ballymena United 1 1184 53.86% 19.15%
25 1982-01-01 52.7 @ Lisburn Distillery 4 1017 24.37% Glenavon 2 1202 56.54% 19.09%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1982-04-17 24.0 Linfield 5 1494 79.71% @ Bangor 0 921 3.36% 16.93%
2 1982-03-13 24.4 @ Glentoran 4 1364 78.02% Bangor 0 961 4.37% 17.61%
3 1982-03-06 24.6 @ Linfield 5 1409 77.58% Ards 0 1020 4.71% 17.71%
4 1982-04-10 25.5 @ Coleraine 4 1393 75.16% Glenavon 0 1070 6.70% 18.14%
5 1982-04-03 27.1 Coleraine 3 1380 72.35% @ Ards 0 1001 9.38% 18.28%
6 1982-04-10 27.1 Linfield 7 1459 73.33% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1061 8.50% 18.17%
7 1982-04-17 27.3 @ Glentoran 2 1404 78.10% Ards 0 999 4.31% 17.60%
8 1982-03-13 27.7 Linfield 6 1420 69.35% @ Glenavon 0 1090 12.11% 18.54%
9 1981-12-05 28.2 Glentoran 5 1362 65.81% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1080 15.42% 18.76%
10 1982-03-31 28.8 @ Linfield 2 1457 75.33% Portadown 0 1130 6.55% 18.12%
11 1982-04-20 29.0 @ Crusaders 5 1271 76.51% Bangor 1 914 5.57% 17.92%
12 1981-12-26 29.8 Linfield 4 1369 61.23% @ Cliftonville 0 1139 19.81% 18.96%
13 1982-02-27 30.3 @ Glentoran 6 1324 69.74% Lisburn Distillery 1 1106 11.57% 18.69%
14 1982-03-27 30.3 Glentoran 4 1382 59.98% @ Portadown 0 1165 21.02% 19.00%
15 1982-01-16 30.4 Glentoran 7 1358 67.32% @ Ards 1 1057 14.00% 18.68%
16 1982-04-10 30.8 @ Glentoran 4 1424 77.15% Larne 1 1049 5.05% 17.80%
17 1981-12-05 31.2 @ Linfield 3 1336 60.44% Ballymena United 0 1234 20.46% 19.10%
18 1982-03-27 31.4 @ Coleraine 2 1367 66.16% Ballymena United 0 1199 14.94% 18.90%
19 1981-12-12 31.6 @ Portadown 2 1146 63.06% Bangor 0 1016 17.92% 19.02%
20 1982-03-27 31.9 @ Linfield 1 1454 73.98% Cliftonville 0 1158 7.72% 18.30%
21 1982-01-01 32.3 @ Coleraine 9 1206 59.51% Ards 1 1113 21.37% 19.12%
22 1982-03-27 32.5 Larne 4 1087 50.51% @ Bangor 0 953 30.28% 19.20%
23 1981-11-28 33.0 @ Glentoran 6 1329 61.81% Crusaders 1 1212 19.12% 19.06%
24 1982-02-06 33.2 @ Larne 4 1090 48.25% Glenavon 0 1093 32.48% 19.27%
25 1982-01-16 33.3 @ Ballymena United 2 1207 57.86% Larne 0 1130 22.98% 19.16%