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1982-83 Irish League Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

35 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Ards

5.40 points above expected

22 points · 16.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bangor

5.45 points below expected

5 points · 10.45 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Linfield 22 15 5 2 35 43 13 +30 32.84 +2.16
2 Glentoran 22 14 2 6 30 49 21 +28 30.96 -0.96
3 Coleraine 22 11 6 5 28 44 25 +19 27.83 +0.17
4 Portadown 22 10 6 6 26 29 17 +12 23.13 +2.87
5 Crusaders 22 11 3 8 25 35 26 +9 26.39 -1.39
6 Cliftonville 22 10 4 8 24 30 24 +6 23.74 +0.26
7 Ards 22 9 4 9 22 40 41 -1 16.60 +5.40
8 Ballymena United 22 8 4 10 20 32 41 -9 20.17 -0.17
9 Lisburn Distillery 22 7 4 11 18 23 46 -23 17.17 +0.83
10 Glenavon 22 6 4 12 16 26 37 -11 17.97 -1.97
11 Larne 22 6 3 13 15 31 40 -9 16.75 -1.75
12 Bangor 22 1 3 18 5 17 68 -51 10.45 -5.45

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Ards 22 16.60 +5.40
2 Portadown 26 23.13 +2.87
3 Linfield 35 32.84 +2.16
4 Lisburn Distillery 18 17.17 +0.83
5 Cliftonville 24 23.74 +0.26

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bangor 5 10.45 -5.45
2 Glenavon 16 17.97 -1.97
3 Larne 15 16.75 -1.75
4 Crusaders 25 26.39 -1.39
5 Glentoran 30 30.96 -0.96

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Portadown 4 Mar 12 – Apr 2 1 in 28
2 Glenavon 2 Dec 28 – Jan 1 1 in 19
3 Larne 2 Dec 18 – Dec 27 1 in 17
4 Linfield 7 Dec 27 – Jan 29 1 in 14
5 Cliftonville 4 Nov 27 – Dec 18 1 in 13

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Portadown 5 Jan 3 – Feb 5 1 in 228
2 Crusaders 3 Dec 27 – Jan 1 1 in 50
3 Glenavon 5 Nov 27 – Dec 27 1 in 33
4 Bangor 8 Feb 12 – Apr 9 1 in 27
5 Coleraine 2 Dec 27 – Dec 28 1 in 24

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Portadown 9 Feb 19 – Apr 21 1 in 82
2 Glenavon 5 Dec 28 – Jan 15 1 in 62
3 Coleraine 11 Feb 5 – Apr 23 1 in 46
4 Linfield 19 Dec 4 – Apr 16 1 in 29
5 Larne 4 Dec 18 – Jan 1 1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Portadown 6 Jan 1 – Feb 5 1 in 40
2 Glentoran 3 Apr 2 – Apr 9 1 in 28
3 Linfield 3 Apr 9 – Apr 21 1 in 19
4 Bangor 11 Nov 27 – Jan 29 1 in 11
5 Crusaders 3 Dec 27 – Jan 1 1 in 9

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Linfield 1373 35 +4 6 7.1 -1.1
Glentoran 1310 30 -7 7 7.7 -0.7
Coleraine 1264 28 +17 8 5.9 +2.1
Portadown 1182 26 +12 7 4.8 +2.2
Crusaders 1202 25 +2 4 5.1 -1.1
Cliftonville 1165 24 +8 7 5.2 +1.8
Ards 1044 22 +0 4 3.8 +0.2
Ballymena United 1101 20 -6 3 4.3 -1.3
Lisburn Distillery 1034 18 -7 5 4.0 +1.0
Glenavon 1035 16 +0 4 3.7 +0.3
Larne 1029 15 +4 4 4.8 -0.8
Bangor 876 5 -14 1 2.3 -1.3

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ARD BU BAN CLI COL CRU GLE GLE LAR LIN LD POR
Ards —
1-1-0
2.14
2-0-0
3.64
0-1-1
1.85
0-0-2
1.49
1-1-0
1.54
1-0-1
2.74
0-0-2
1.16
2-0-0
2.79
0-1-1
0.95
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
1.80
Ballymena United
0-1-1
3.49
 —
1-1-0
4.06
1-0-1
2.39
1-0-1
1.85
0-1-1
2.16
2-0-0
3.31
0-0-2
1.51
2-0-0
3.29
0-0-2
1.36
0-0-2
3.23
1-1-0
2.27
Bangor
0-0-2
1.99
0-1-1
1.58
 —
0-0-2
1.27
0-0-2
1.00
0-0-2
1.07
0-1-1
1.80
0-0-2
0.71
0-1-1
1.90
0-0-2
0.60
1-0-1
1.86
0-0-2
1.34
Cliftonville
1-1-0
3.78
1-0-1
3.22
2-0-0
4.38
 —
1-0-1
2.31
1-0-1
2.53
1-1-0
3.79
0-1-1
1.87
2-0-0
3.67
0-1-1
1.50
1-0-1
3.73
0-0-2
2.88
Coleraine
2-0-0
4.15
1-0-1
3.78
2-0-0
4.67
1-0-1
3.31
 —
2-0-0
3.04
0-2-0
4.21
2-0-0
2.22
1-0-1
4.17
0-1-1
1.92
0-1-1
4.15
0-2-0
3.39
Crusaders
0-1-1
4.09
1-1-0
3.46
2-0-0
4.59
1-0-1
3.09
0-0-2
2.57
 —
1-0-1
3.97
1-0-1
2.02
2-0-0
3.99
0-0-2
1.75
2-0-0
3.88
1-1-0
3.11
Glenavon
1-0-1
2.88
0-0-2
2.31
1-1-0
3.83
0-1-1
1.83
0-2-0
1.43
1-0-1
1.67
 —
0-0-2
1.19
0-0-2
2.97
0-0-2
0.98
1-0-1
2.59
2-0-0
1.81
Glentoran
2-0-0
4.50
2-0-0
4.13
2-0-0
4.99
1-1-0
3.76
0-0-2
3.41
1-0-1
3.60
2-0-0
4.46
 —
1-0-1
4.52
1-1-0
2.46
2-0-0
4.44
0-0-2
3.77
Larne
0-0-2
2.83
0-0-2
2.33
1-1-0
3.72
0-0-2
1.95
1-0-1
1.47
0-0-2
1.64
2-0-0
2.65
1-0-1
1.14
 —
0-0-2
0.97
1-1-0
2.59
0-1-1
1.86
Linfield
1-1-0
4.72
2-0-0
4.29
2-0-0
5.12
1-1-0
4.14
1-1-0
3.70
2-0-0
3.88
2-0-0
4.69
0-1-1
3.16
2-0-0
4.70
 —
1-1-0
4.65
1-0-1
4.14
Lisburn Distillery
1-0-1
2.98
2-0-0
2.39
1-0-1
3.77
1-0-1
1.89
1-1-0
1.49
0-0-2
1.75
1-0-1
3.02
0-0-2
1.21
0-1-1
3.03
0-1-1
1.03
 —
0-1-1
2.23
Portadown
1-0-1
3.83
0-1-1
3.35
2-0-0
4.31
2-0-0
2.74
0-2-0
2.23
0-1-1
2.50
0-0-2
3.82
2-0-0
1.86
1-1-0
3.77
1-0-1
1.50
1-1-0
3.39
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.69 +7.0
Allowed 0.87 -4.8
Differential 0.93 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%10.23%2.65%3.79%1.14%2.65%29.55%
110.23%5.30%6.06%6.44%2.27%0.76%31.06%
22.65%6.06%2.27%1.89%1.89%0.38%15.15%
33.79%6.44%1.89%0.76%—0.76%13.64%
41.14%2.27%1.89%—0.76%—6.06%
5+2.65%0.76%0.38%0.76%——4.55%
Total29.55%31.06%15.15%13.64%6.06%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.51 1.51 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.18
CV 0.98 0.98 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%4.55%4.55%4.55%——27.27%
19.09%——9.09%4.55%—22.73%
2—4.55%—4.55%4.55%—13.64%
3—4.55%9.09%——4.55%18.18%
44.55%—4.55%—4.55%—13.64%
5+—4.55%————4.55%
Total27.27%18.18%18.18%18.18%13.64%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.82 1.86 -0.05
SD 1.59 1.58 2.01
CV 0.88 0.85 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%—4.55%4.55%31.82%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%—27.27%
24.55%9.09%——4.55%—18.18%
34.55%4.55%————9.09%
4——9.09%—4.55%—13.64%
5+———————
Total22.73%27.27%22.73%4.55%18.18%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.86 -0.41
SD 1.41 1.67 2.20
CV 0.97 0.90 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.55%4.55%—18.18%—13.64%40.91%
1—9.09%13.64%13.64%4.55%4.55%45.45%
2—4.55%———4.55%9.09%
3—————4.55%4.55%
4———————
5+———————
Total4.55%18.18%13.64%31.82%4.55%27.27%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.77 3.09 -2.32
SD 0.81 1.80 1.89
CV 1.05 0.58 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%13.64%————22.73%
118.18%9.09%9.09%9.09%4.55%—50.00%
24.55%4.55%————9.09%
34.55%—4.55%———9.09%
4——4.55%———4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total40.91%27.27%18.18%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.36 1.09 +0.27
SD 1.33 1.19 1.80
CV 0.97 1.09 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%4.55%————13.64%
19.09%13.64%9.09%———31.82%
24.55%——4.55%4.55%—13.64%
34.55%18.18%—4.55%——27.27%
4—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total31.82%40.91%13.64%9.09%4.55%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.14 +0.86
SD 1.41 1.13 1.70
CV 0.71 0.99 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%—9.09%—4.55%40.91%
14.55%——9.09%——13.64%
24.55%13.64%————18.18%
39.09%9.09%————18.18%
4———————
5+4.55%4.55%————9.09%
Total36.36%40.91%—18.18%—4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.59 1.18 +0.41
SD 1.84 1.37 2.63
CV 1.16 1.16 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%9.09%——31.82%
113.64%9.09%9.09%13.64%4.55%—50.00%
2————4.55%—4.55%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4———————
5+4.55%——4.55%——9.09%
Total27.27%22.73%13.64%27.27%9.09%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.18 1.68 -0.50
SD 1.44 1.39 1.97
CV 1.21 0.83 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.64%4.55%———18.18%
14.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
2—4.55%4.55%———9.09%
313.64%22.73%————36.36%
44.55%9.09%————13.64%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total27.27%54.55%13.64%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.23 0.95 +1.27
SD 1.51 0.79 2.00
CV 0.68 0.82 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.73%4.55%——4.55%31.82%
14.55%4.55%9.09%4.55%——22.73%
24.55%4.55%9.09%9.09%4.55%—31.82%
3——4.55%———4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+——4.55%———4.55%
Total9.09%36.36%31.82%13.64%4.55%4.55%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.41 1.82 -0.41
SD 1.37 1.22 1.79
CV 0.97 0.67 —
Max 5 5 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.18%4.55%—4.55%——27.27%
122.73%—————22.73%
24.55%4.55%4.55%———13.64%
39.09%9.09%————18.18%
44.55%4.55%————9.09%
5+4.55%——4.55%——9.09%
Total63.64%22.73%4.55%9.09%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.95 0.59 +1.36
SD 1.86 0.96 1.89
CV 0.95 1.62 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
09.09%9.09%4.55%—9.09%4.55%36.36%
19.09%—4.55%9.09%4.55%4.55%31.82%
2—18.18%4.55%———22.73%
3——4.55%4.55%——9.09%
4———————
5+———————
Total18.18%27.27%18.18%13.64%13.64%9.09%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.05 2.09 -1.05
SD 1.00 1.72 2.06
CV 0.96 0.82 —
Max 3 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.64%13.64%4.55%———31.82%
122.73%9.09%4.55%———36.36%
24.55%4.55%4.55%4.55%——18.18%
3—4.55%————4.55%
4—4.55%————4.55%
5+4.55%—————4.55%
Total45.45%36.36%13.64%4.55%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 0.77 +0.55
SD 1.49 0.87 1.71
CV 1.13 1.12 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Linfield 1373 35 32.84 +2.16 82.0% 26 27 31 33 35 37 40
Glentoran 1310 30 30.96 -0.96 43.0% 23 24 29 31 33 36 37
Coleraine 1264 28 27.83 +0.17 59.0% 19 22 25 28 30 34 38
Crusaders 1202 25 26.39 -1.39 44.0% 16 20 23 26 29 32 35
Portadown 1182 26 23.13 +2.87 83.0% 13 18 21 23 26 29 33
Cliftonville 1165 24 23.74 +0.26 55.0% 11 17 21 24 27 29 34
Ballymena United 1101 20 20.17 -0.17 50.0% 12 14 17 20 23 25 27
Ards 1044 22 16.60 +5.40 93.0% 6 10 13 17 19 23 27
Glenavon 1035 16 17.97 -1.97 33.0% 6 11 16 18 21 25 29
Lisburn Distillery 1034 18 17.17 +0.83 64.0% 9 12 15 17 20 23 25
Larne 1029 15 16.75 -1.75 39.0% 10 11 14 17 19 22 23
Bangor 876 5 10.45 -5.45 7.0% 2 5 8 10 13 16 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+16.67%
Clear Edge
49.24%18.18%32.58%
Elo Value
Home Edge
155 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
058.45400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.38+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.4
Top-Heavy
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
56%
Linfield, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.23/gm
Comfortable
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.9 * Some Luck: 2.9 to 4.34 * Lucky: 4.34 to 5.79 * Wild Swing: 5.79 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.03 * Close: 1.03 to 1.55 * Off: 1.55 to 2.07 * Way Off: 2.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.62 points
As Expected
03.629
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.293
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
93.00%
Ards
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
7.00%
Bangor
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Even
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 141.19
1.87
Moderate Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
74%
Slight Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
95%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
55%
Frequent
0%50%100%
Blowouts
Expected
23%
Occasional
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.542
Matchup Imbalance
0.45
Notable Separation
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.52
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.91
Near-Lock
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
As Expected
0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.54
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.14
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.079
Well Within Noise
00.1380.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789101112
Linfield56.00%28.00%10.00%3.00%3.00%———————
Glentoran30.00%41.00%12.00%11.00%3.00%3.00%——————
Coleraine8.00%17.00%28.00%27.00%11.00%7.00%2.00%—————
Portadown——13.00%15.00%18.00%18.00%17.00%11.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%—
Crusaders5.00%11.00%21.00%21.00%17.00%14.00%6.00%3.00%1.00%—1.00%—
Cliftonville1.00%3.00%11.00%20.00%20.00%21.00%10.00%7.00%6.00%——1.00%
Ards————2.00%3.00%13.00%22.00%18.00%15.00%17.00%10.00%
Ballymena United——1.00%1.00%16.00%16.00%19.00%16.00%16.00%9.00%6.00%—
Lisburn Distillery———1.00%4.00%6.00%7.00%16.00%12.00%22.00%25.00%7.00%
Glenavon——4.00%1.00%6.00%6.00%14.00%8.00%23.00%20.00%13.00%5.00%
Larne—————6.00%12.00%15.00%18.00%28.00%21.00%—
Bangor———————2.00%2.00%3.00%16.00%77.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Ards 100%
Ballymena United 100%
Bangor 100%
Cliftonville 100%
Coleraine 100%
Crusaders 100%
Glenavon 100%
Glentoran 100%
Larne 100%
Linfield 100%
Lisburn Distillery 100%
Portadown 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1982-11-27 Ards D 4-466.0 1115 1015 63.60% 18.48% 17.91%+1.02 -0.7 1
1982-11-27 @ Ballymena United D 4-466.0 1015 1115 17.91% 18.48% 63.60%-1.02 +0.7 1
1982-11-27 Lisburn Distillery L 0-140.0 951 1086 34.47% 19.11% 46.42%-0.50 -4.2 0
1982-11-27 @ Bangor W 1-040.0 1086 951 46.42% 19.11% 34.47%+0.50 +4.2 2
1982-11-27 Coleraine W 1-040.9 1161 1230 43.73% 19.28% 36.99%-0.07 +4.5 2
1982-11-27 @ Cliftonville L 0-140.9 1230 1161 36.99% 19.28% 43.73%+0.07 -4.5 0
1982-11-27 Linfield W 3-035.8 1294 1346 46.01% 19.28% 34.71%+0.04 +11.7 2
1982-11-27 @ Glentoran L 0-335.8 1346 1294 34.71% 19.28% 46.01%-0.04 -11.7 0
1982-11-27 Glenavon W 2-143.4 1024 1044 50.25% 19.23% 30.52%+0.25 +3.6 2
1982-11-27 @ Larne L 1-243.4 1044 1024 30.52% 19.23% 50.25%-0.25 -3.6 0
1982-11-27 Crusaders D 0-051.0 1152 1200 46.55% 19.28% 34.17%+0.07 -0.3 1
1982-11-27 @ Portadown D 0-051.0 1200 1152 34.17% 19.28% 46.55%-0.07 +0.4 1
1982-12-04 Cliftonville L 2-445.1 1015 1166 32.49% 19.04% 48.47%-0.59 -5.9 1
1982-12-04 @ Ards W 4-245.1 1166 1015 48.47% 19.04% 32.49%+0.59 +5.9 4
1982-12-04 Bangor W 4-130.1 1225 946 76.42% 16.06% 7.52%+2.18 +2.4 2
1982-12-04 @ Coleraine L 1-430.1 946 1225 7.52% 16.06% 76.42%-2.18 -2.4 0
1982-12-04 Glentoran W 2-147.4 1200 1306 38.51% 19.22% 42.27%-0.30 +4.7 3
1982-12-04 @ Crusaders L 1-247.4 1306 1200 42.27% 19.22% 38.51%+0.30 -4.7 2
1982-12-04 Ballymena United L 1-344.4 1041 1114 43.04% 19.28% 37.68%-0.10 -8.3 0
1982-12-04 @ Glenavon W 3-144.4 1114 1041 37.68% 19.28% 43.04%+0.10 +8.3 3
1982-12-04 Larne W 3-132.5 1334 1028 77.87% 15.58% 6.54%+2.36 +1.4 2
1982-12-04 @ Linfield L 1-332.5 1028 1334 6.54% 15.58% 77.87%-2.36 -1.4 2
1982-12-04 Portadown D 0-050.9 1090 1151 44.78% 19.28% 35.94%-0.02 -0.2 3
1982-12-04 @ Lisburn Distillery D 0-050.9 1151 1090 35.94% 19.28% 44.78%+0.02 +0.2 2
1982-12-11 Glenavon W 4-244.6 1009 1032 49.90% 19.23% 30.86%+0.23 +5.7 3
1982-12-11 @ Ards L 2-444.6 1032 1009 30.86% 19.23% 49.90%-0.23 -5.7 0
1982-12-11 Linfield L 0-234.2 1122 1336 25.01% 18.58% 56.41%-1.00 -6.1 3
1982-12-11 @ Ballymena United W 2-034.2 1336 1122 56.41% 18.58% 25.01%+1.00 +6.0 4
1982-12-11 Bangor W 5-025.1 1172 944 73.42% 16.88% 9.70%+1.84 +5.8 6
1982-12-11 @ Cliftonville L 0-525.1 944 1172 9.70% 16.88% 73.42%-1.84 -5.8 0
1982-12-11 Lisburn Distillery W 4-025.7 1301 1090 72.37% 17.12% 10.51%+1.74 +5.1 4
1982-12-11 @ Glentoran L 0-425.7 1090 1301 10.51% 17.12% 72.37%-1.74 -5.1 3
1982-12-11 Crusaders L 0-138.3 1026 1205 28.99% 18.86% 52.15%-0.77 -3.6 2
1982-12-11 @ Larne W 1-038.3 1205 1026 52.15% 18.86% 28.99%+0.77 +3.7 5
1982-12-11 Coleraine D 1-154.9 1151 1228 42.68% 19.28% 38.04%-0.11 -0.1 3
1982-12-11 @ Portadown D 1-154.9 1228 1151 38.04% 19.28% 42.68%+0.11 +0.1 3
1982-12-18 Portadown L 0-630.8 938 1151 25.05% 18.58% 56.37%-1.00 -16.8 0
1982-12-18 @ Bangor W 6-030.8 1151 938 56.37% 18.58% 25.05%+1.00 +16.8 5
1982-12-18 Glentoran W 3-143.5 1228 1306 42.38% 19.27% 38.35%-0.13 +7.6 5
1982-12-18 @ Coleraine L 1-343.5 1306 1228 38.35% 19.27% 42.38%+0.13 -7.6 4
1982-12-18 Ballymena United W 6-028.9 1208 1116 62.84% 18.56% 18.60%+0.97 +13.0 7
1982-12-18 @ Crusaders L 0-628.9 1116 1208 18.60% 18.56% 62.84%-0.97 -13.0 3
1982-12-18 Cliftonville L 1-244.0 1027 1177 32.43% 19.03% 48.53%-0.60 -3.8 0
1982-12-18 @ Glenavon W 2-144.0 1177 1027 48.53% 19.03% 32.43%+0.60 +3.8 8
1982-12-18 Ards D 0-052.2 1342 1015 78.86% 15.23% 5.92%+2.49 -2.3 5
1982-12-18 @ Linfield D 0-052.2 1015 1342 5.92% 15.23% 78.86%-2.49 +2.3 4
1982-12-18 Larne L 1-446.6 1085 1023 59.84% 18.81% 21.35%+0.78 -15.8 3
1982-12-18 @ Lisburn Distillery W 4-146.6 1023 1085 21.35% 18.81% 59.84%-0.78 +15.8 4
1982-12-27 Crusaders W 3-147.9 1017 1221 26.05% 18.66% 55.29%-0.94 +10.3 6
1982-12-27 @ Ards L 1-347.9 1221 1017 55.29% 18.66% 26.05%+0.94 -10.3 7
1982-12-27 Lisburn Distillery L 1-251.3 1103 1069 56.84% 19.00% 24.17%+0.60 -6.2 3
1982-12-27 @ Ballymena United W 2-151.3 1069 1103 24.17% 19.00% 56.84%-0.60 +6.1 5
1982-12-27 Portadown L 0-146.0 1181 1168 54.34% 19.11% 26.56%+0.46 -6.2 8
1982-12-27 @ Cliftonville W 1-046.0 1168 1181 26.56% 19.11% 54.34%-0.46 +6.2 7
1982-12-27 Linfield L 0-328.4 1023 1340 15.68% 17.37% 66.95%-1.67 -5.7 0
1982-12-27 @ Glenavon W 3-028.4 1340 1023 66.95% 17.37% 15.68%+1.67 +5.7 7
1982-12-27 Bangor W 2-134.2 1299 921 81.09% 14.31% 4.59%+2.81 +0.6 6
1982-12-27 @ Glentoran L 1-234.2 921 1299 4.59% 14.31% 81.09%-2.81 -0.6 0
1982-12-27 Coleraine W 3-255.2 1038 1235 26.84% 18.72% 54.44%-0.89 +5.6 6
1982-12-27 @ Larne L 2-355.2 1235 1038 54.44% 18.72% 26.84%+0.89 -5.6 5
1982-12-28 Larne D 1-154.8 921 1044 36.08% 19.16% 44.75%-0.42 +0.2 1
1982-12-28 @ Bangor D 1-154.8 1044 921 44.75% 19.16% 36.08%+0.42 -0.2 7
1982-12-28 Ballymena United L 2-455.1 1230 1097 66.48% 18.15% 15.37%+1.23 -11.1 5
1982-12-28 @ Coleraine W 4-255.1 1097 1230 15.37% 18.15% 66.48%-1.23 +11.1 5
1982-12-28 Glenavon L 0-150.5 1211 1017 71.21% 17.37% 11.42%+1.63 -8.1 7
1982-12-28 @ Crusaders W 1-050.5 1017 1211 11.42% 17.37% 71.21%-1.63 +8.1 2
1982-12-28 Ards W 3-245.7 1075 1028 58.26% 18.91% 22.83%+0.68 +2.7 7
1982-12-28 @ Lisburn Distillery L 2-345.7 1028 1075 22.83% 18.91% 58.26%-0.68 -2.7 6
1982-12-28 Glentoran W 1-043.5 1174 1299 35.88% 19.16% 44.96%-0.43 +5.3 9
1982-12-28 @ Portadown L 0-143.5 1299 1174 44.96% 19.16% 35.88%+0.43 -5.3 6
1982-12-29 Cliftonville W 1-033.5 1345 1175 69.50% 17.69% 12.81%+1.48 +1.7 9
1982-12-29 @ Linfield L 0-133.5 1175 1345 12.81% 17.69% 69.50%-1.48 -1.7 8
1983-01-01 Coleraine L 0-332.2 1025 1219 27.22% 18.75% 54.04%-0.87 -9.5 6
1983-01-01 @ Ards W 3-032.2 1219 1025 54.04% 18.75% 27.22%+0.87 +9.5 7
1983-01-01 Bangor D 1-155.3 1108 921 70.73% 17.46% 11.81%+1.59 -1.7 6
1983-01-01 @ Ballymena United D 1-155.3 921 1108 11.81% 17.46% 70.73%-1.59 +1.7 2
1983-01-01 Glentoran L 1-342.7 1173 1294 36.42% 19.17% 44.41%-0.40 -7.2 8
1983-01-01 @ Cliftonville W 3-142.7 1294 1173 44.41% 19.17% 36.42%+0.40 +7.2 8
1983-01-01 Lisburn Distillery W 5-033.4 1025 1078 45.95% 19.28% 34.77%+0.04 +18.8 4
1983-01-01 @ Glenavon L 0-533.4 1078 1025 34.77% 19.28% 45.95%-0.04 -18.8 7
1983-01-01 Portadown D 2-259.8 1044 1180 34.37% 19.11% 46.52%-0.50 +0.2 8
1983-01-01 @ Larne D 2-259.8 1180 1044 46.52% 19.11% 34.37%+0.50 -0.2 10
1983-01-01 Crusaders W 1-034.3 1347 1203 67.44% 18.01% 14.55%+1.31 +2.0 11
1983-01-01 @ Linfield L 0-134.3 1203 1347 14.55% 18.01% 67.44%-1.31 -2.0 7
1983-01-03 Ards L 1-246.4 923 1016 40.31% 19.25% 40.44%-0.22 -4.5 2
1983-01-03 @ Bangor W 2-146.4 1016 923 40.44% 19.25% 40.31%+0.22 +4.5 8
1983-01-03 Glenavon D 1-155.4 1228 1044 70.51% 17.50% 11.99%+1.57 -1.7 8
1983-01-03 @ Coleraine D 1-155.4 1044 1228 11.99% 17.50% 70.51%-1.57 +1.7 5
1983-01-03 Cliftonville W 2-141.6 1201 1166 56.91% 18.99% 24.10%+0.60 +3.0 9
1983-01-03 @ Crusaders L 1-241.6 1166 1201 24.10% 18.99% 56.91%-0.60 -3.0 8
1983-01-03 Larne W 5-024.7 1301 1044 75.21% 16.42% 8.38%+2.04 +5.0 10
1983-01-03 @ Glentoran L 0-524.7 1044 1301 8.38% 16.42% 75.21%-2.04 -5.0 8
1983-01-03 Linfield L 0-428.1 1059 1349 17.75% 17.73% 64.52%-1.49 -8.4 7
1983-01-03 @ Lisburn Distillery W 4-028.1 1349 1059 64.52% 17.73% 17.75%+1.49 +8.4 13
1983-01-03 Ballymena United L 1-252.5 1179 1107 60.94% 18.73% 20.33%+0.85 -6.6 10
1983-01-03 @ Portadown W 2-152.5 1107 1179 20.33% 18.73% 60.94%-0.85 +6.6 8
1983-01-08 Portadown W 3-253.6 1020 1173 32.18% 19.02% 48.80%-0.61 +5.1 10
1983-01-08 @ Ards L 2-353.6 1173 1020 48.80% 19.02% 32.18%+0.61 -5.1 10
1983-01-08 Glentoran L 1-339.7 1113 1306 27.30% 18.75% 53.95%-0.87 -5.7 8
1983-01-08 @ Ballymena United W 3-139.7 1306 1113 53.95% 18.75% 27.30%+0.87 +5.7 12
1983-01-08 Larne W 3-243.5 1163 1039 65.75% 18.24% 16.01%+1.18 +1.9 10
1983-01-08 @ Cliftonville L 2-343.5 1039 1163 16.01% 18.24% 65.75%-1.18 -1.9 8
1983-01-08 Lisburn Distillery W 3-135.3 1204 1050 68.19% 17.90% 13.91%+1.37 +3.1 11
1983-01-08 @ Crusaders L 1-335.3 1050 1204 13.91% 17.90% 68.19%-1.37 -3.1 7
1983-01-08 Bangor W 3-135.9 1046 918 66.05% 18.20% 15.75%+1.20 +3.5 7
1983-01-08 @ Glenavon L 1-335.9 918 1046 15.75% 18.20% 66.05%-1.20 -3.5 2
1983-01-08 Coleraine W 2-139.4 1357 1227 66.34% 18.16% 15.49%+1.22 +2.0 15
1983-01-08 @ Linfield L 1-239.4 1227 1357 15.49% 18.16% 66.34%-1.22 -2.0 8
1983-01-15 Linfield L 3-634.7 915 1359 8.48% 15.32% 76.19%-2.49 -2.1 2
1983-01-15 @ Bangor W 6-334.7 1359 915 76.19% 15.32% 8.48%+2.49 +2.1 17
1983-01-15 Lisburn Distillery W 2-031.2 1165 1047 65.18% 18.31% 16.51%+1.13 +4.2 12
1983-01-15 @ Cliftonville L 0-231.2 1047 1165 16.51% 18.31% 65.18%-1.13 -4.2 7
1983-01-15 Crusaders W 5-030.9 1225 1207 54.88% 19.09% 26.04%+0.49 +14.8 10
1983-01-15 @ Coleraine L 0-530.9 1207 1225 26.04% 19.09% 54.88%-0.49 -14.8 11
1983-01-15 Ards W 4-130.1 1312 1025 76.83% 15.93% 7.24%+2.23 +2.3 14
1983-01-15 @ Glentoran L 1-430.1 1025 1312 7.24% 15.93% 76.83%-2.23 -2.3 10
1983-01-15 Ballymena United L 1-247.4 1037 1108 43.48% 19.28% 37.24%-0.08 -4.8 8
1983-01-15 @ Larne W 2-147.4 1108 1037 37.24% 19.28% 43.48%+0.08 +4.8 10
1983-01-15 Glenavon L 0-149.0 1168 1049 65.29% 18.30% 16.41%+1.14 -7.4 10
1983-01-15 @ Portadown W 1-049.0 1049 1168 16.41% 18.30% 65.29%-1.14 +7.4 9
1983-01-29 Larne W 1-038.4 1023 1032 51.62% 19.20% 29.18%+0.32 +3.7 12
1983-01-29 @ Ards L 0-138.4 1032 1023 29.18% 19.20% 51.62%-0.32 -3.7 8
1983-01-29 Cliftonville W 1-040.3 1112 1169 45.39% 19.28% 35.33%+0.01 +4.3 12
1983-01-29 @ Ballymena United L 0-140.3 1169 1112 35.33% 19.28% 45.39%-0.01 -4.3 12
1983-01-29 Bangor W 3-132.8 1192 913 76.47% 16.04% 7.49%+2.18 +1.7 13
1983-01-29 @ Crusaders L 1-332.8 913 1192 7.49% 16.04% 76.47%-2.18 -1.7 2
1983-01-29 Glentoran L 1-337.5 1057 1314 20.60% 18.13% 61.27%-1.28 -4.4 9
1983-01-29 @ Glenavon W 3-137.5 1314 1057 61.27% 18.13% 20.60%+1.28 +4.4 16
1983-01-29 Portadown W 1-032.9 1361 1160 71.69% 17.27% 11.04%+1.67 +1.5 19
1983-01-29 @ Linfield L 0-132.9 1160 1361 11.04% 17.27% 71.69%-1.67 -1.5 10
1983-01-29 Coleraine W 2-150.5 1043 1239 26.94% 18.73% 54.34%-0.89 +5.9 9
1983-01-29 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-250.5 1239 1043 54.34% 18.73% 26.94%+0.89 -5.9 10
1983-02-05 Ballymena United W 4-035.0 1027 1117 40.71% 19.26% 40.03%-0.20 +17.1 14
1983-02-05 @ Ards L 0-435.0 1117 1027 40.03% 19.26% 40.71%+0.20 -17.1 12
1983-02-05 Cliftonville W 3-137.7 1233 1165 60.52% 18.76% 20.72%+0.82 +4.5 12
1983-02-05 @ Coleraine L 1-337.7 1165 1233 20.72% 18.76% 60.52%-0.82 -4.5 12
1983-02-05 Portadown W 2-033.8 1194 1159 56.90% 18.99% 24.11%+0.60 +5.9 15
1983-02-05 @ Crusaders L 0-233.8 1159 1194 24.11% 18.99% 56.90%-0.60 -5.9 10
1983-02-05 Larne L 0-146.3 1052 1029 55.60% 19.06% 25.35%+0.53 -6.4 9
1983-02-05 @ Glenavon W 1-046.3 1029 1052 25.35% 19.06% 55.60%-0.53 +6.4 10
1983-02-05 Glentoran D 2-261.5 1363 1318 57.96% 18.93% 23.11%+0.66 -0.7 20
1983-02-05 @ Linfield D 2-261.5 1318 1363 23.11% 18.93% 57.96%-0.66 +0.7 17
1983-02-05 Bangor L 1-254.0 1049 911 66.95% 18.08% 14.97%+1.27 -7.2 9
1983-02-05 @ Lisburn Distillery W 2-154.0 911 1049 14.97% 18.08% 66.95%-1.27 +7.2 4
1983-02-12 Ballymena United L 0-332.6 918 1100 28.64% 18.84% 52.52%-0.79 -9.9 4
1983-02-12 @ Bangor W 3-032.6 1100 918 52.52% 18.84% 28.64%+0.79 +9.9 14
1983-02-19 Glenavon W 2-032.8 1109 1046 60.00% 18.80% 21.20%+0.79 +5.3 16
1983-02-19 @ Ballymena United L 0-232.8 1046 1109 21.20% 18.80% 60.00%-0.79 -5.3 9
1983-02-19 Coleraine L 1-335.3 908 1238 14.76% 17.19% 68.04%-1.75 -3.2 4
1983-02-19 @ Bangor W 3-135.3 1238 908 68.04% 17.19% 14.76%+1.75 +3.2 14
1983-02-19 Ards D 0-051.2 1160 1044 65.09% 18.32% 16.59%+1.13 -1.5 13
1983-02-19 @ Cliftonville D 0-051.2 1044 1160 16.59% 18.32% 65.09%-1.13 +1.5 15
1983-02-19 Crusaders W 3-029.2 1319 1200 65.34% 18.29% 16.37%+1.15 +6.0 19
1983-02-19 @ Glentoran L 0-329.2 1200 1319 16.37% 18.29% 65.34%-1.15 -6.0 15
1983-02-19 Linfield L 0-133.7 1035 1362 14.93% 17.23% 67.85%-1.73 -2.0 10
1983-02-19 @ Larne W 1-033.7 1362 1035 67.85% 17.23% 14.93%+1.73 +2.0 22
1983-02-19 Lisburn Distillery W 1-034.5 1153 1042 64.61% 18.38% 17.02%+1.09 +2.3 12
1983-02-19 @ Portadown L 0-134.5 1042 1153 17.02% 18.38% 64.61%-1.09 -2.3 9
1983-02-26 Cliftonville L 0-330.1 905 1159 20.95% 18.17% 60.88%-1.26 -7.5 4
1983-02-26 @ Bangor W 3-030.1 1159 905 60.88% 18.17% 20.95%+1.26 +7.5 15
1983-02-26 Portadown D 1-155.2 1241 1155 62.24% 18.62% 19.15%+0.93 -1.2 15
1983-02-26 @ Coleraine D 1-155.2 1155 1241 19.15% 18.62% 62.24%-0.93 +1.2 13
1983-02-26 Larne W 2-137.9 1194 1033 68.77% 17.81% 13.42%+1.42 +1.7 17
1983-02-26 @ Crusaders L 1-237.9 1033 1194 13.42% 17.81% 68.77%-1.42 -1.7 10
1983-02-26 Ards W 5-346.1 1041 1045 52.18% 19.18% 28.64%+0.35 +5.0 11
1983-02-26 @ Glenavon L 3-546.1 1045 1041 28.64% 19.18% 52.18%-0.35 -5.0 15
1983-02-26 Ballymena United W 4-130.9 1364 1115 74.76% 16.54% 8.70%+1.99 +2.7 24
1983-02-26 @ Linfield L 1-430.9 1115 1364 8.70% 16.54% 74.76%-1.99 -2.7 16
1983-02-26 Glentoran L 1-336.6 1040 1325 18.13% 17.79% 64.08%-1.46 -3.9 9
1983-02-26 @ Lisburn Distillery W 3-136.6 1325 1040 64.08% 17.79% 18.13%+1.46 +3.9 21
1983-03-05 Crusaders L 0-328.8 898 1196 17.12% 17.63% 65.25%-1.55 -6.2 4
1983-03-05 @ Bangor W 3-028.8 1196 898 65.25% 17.63% 17.12%+1.55 +6.2 19
1983-03-12 Linfield L 0-133.8 1040 1367 14.97% 17.24% 67.79%-1.73 -2.0 15
1983-03-12 @ Ards W 1-033.8 1367 1040 67.79% 17.24% 14.97%+1.73 +2.0 26
1983-03-12 Crusaders D 0-051.0 1112 1202 40.76% 19.26% 39.98%-0.20 -0.0 17
1983-03-12 @ Ballymena United D 0-051.0 1202 1112 39.98% 19.26% 40.76%+0.20 +0.0 20
1983-03-12 Glenavon D 1-155.1 1166 1046 65.46% 18.28% 16.26%+1.16 -1.4 16
1983-03-12 @ Cliftonville D 1-155.1 1046 1166 16.26% 18.28% 65.46%-1.16 +1.4 12
1983-03-12 Coleraine L 0-149.0 1329 1240 62.55% 18.59% 18.86%+0.95 -7.1 21
1983-03-12 @ Glentoran W 1-049.0 1240 1329 18.86% 18.59% 62.55%-0.95 +7.1 17
1983-03-12 Lisburn Distillery D 2-259.7 1031 1036 52.21% 19.18% 28.61%+0.35 -0.5 11
1983-03-12 @ Larne D 2-259.7 1036 1031 28.61% 19.18% 52.21%-0.35 +0.5 10
1983-03-12 Bangor W 2-135.8 1156 891 75.66% 16.29% 8.05%+2.09 +1.0 15
1983-03-12 @ Portadown L 1-235.8 891 1156 8.05% 16.29% 75.66%-2.09 -1.0 4
1983-03-19 Glentoran L 0-325.7 890 1322 9.05% 15.55% 75.40%-2.41 -3.3 4
1983-03-19 @ Bangor W 3-025.7 1322 890 75.40% 15.55% 9.05%+2.41 +3.3 23
1983-03-19 Larne W 1-032.1 1247 1031 72.71% 17.05% 10.24%+1.77 +1.4 19
1983-03-19 @ Coleraine L 0-132.1 1031 1247 10.24% 17.05% 72.71%-1.77 -1.4 11
1983-03-19 Ards D 0-051.4 1202 1038 68.97% 17.78% 13.25%+1.43 -1.8 21
1983-03-19 @ Crusaders D 0-051.4 1038 1202 13.25% 17.78% 68.97%-1.43 +1.7 16
1983-03-19 Glenavon W 3-132.3 1369 1047 78.63% 15.31% 6.06%+2.45 +1.3 28
1983-03-19 @ Linfield L 1-332.3 1047 1369 6.06% 15.31% 78.63%-2.45 -1.3 12
1983-03-19 Ballymena United W 2-145.7 1036 1112 42.74% 19.28% 37.99%-0.11 +4.3 12
1983-03-19 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-245.7 1112 1036 37.99% 19.28% 42.74%+0.11 -4.3 17
1983-03-19 Cliftonville W 4-137.5 1157 1165 51.86% 19.19% 28.95%+0.33 +8.5 17
1983-03-19 @ Portadown L 1-437.5 1165 1157 28.95% 19.19% 51.86%-0.33 -8.5 16
1983-03-26 Lisburn Distillery D 3-364.3 1248 1041 72.16% 17.17% 10.67%+1.72 -1.1 20
1983-03-26 @ Coleraine D 3-364.3 1041 1248 10.67% 17.17% 72.16%-1.72 +1.1 13
1983-03-26 Larne W 2-030.7 1166 1029 66.82% 18.10% 15.08%+1.26 +3.8 19
1983-03-26 @ Portadown L 0-230.7 1029 1166 15.08% 18.10% 66.82%-1.26 -3.8 11
1983-04-02 Lisburn Distillery W 1-038.1 1040 1042 52.58% 19.17% 28.25%+0.37 +3.6 18
1983-04-02 @ Ards L 0-138.1 1042 1040 28.25% 19.17% 52.58%-0.37 -3.6 13
1983-04-02 Coleraine L 2-445.6 1108 1247 33.87% 19.09% 47.04%-0.52 -6.1 17
1983-04-02 @ Ballymena United W 4-245.6 1247 1108 47.04% 19.09% 33.87%+0.52 +6.1 22
1983-04-02 Linfield D 0-051.6 1156 1370 24.97% 18.57% 56.46%-1.00 +0.9 17
1983-04-02 @ Cliftonville D 0-051.6 1370 1156 56.46% 18.57% 24.97%+1.00 -0.9 29
1983-04-02 Crusaders L 0-333.7 1046 1200 31.96% 19.01% 49.02%-0.62 -10.9 12
1983-04-02 @ Glenavon W 3-033.7 1200 1046 49.02% 19.01% 31.96%+0.62 +10.9 23
1983-04-02 Portadown L 0-150.2 1325 1170 68.34% 17.88% 13.78%+1.38 -7.8 23
1983-04-02 @ Glentoran W 1-050.2 1170 1325 13.78% 17.88% 68.34%-1.38 +7.8 21
1983-04-02 Bangor W 5-235.9 1026 887 66.98% 18.08% 14.94%+1.27 +4.0 13
1983-04-02 @ Larne L 2-535.9 887 1026 14.94% 18.08% 66.98%-1.27 -4.0 4
1983-04-04 Ards W 2-029.2 1253 1044 72.28% 17.14% 10.57%+1.73 +2.7 24
1983-04-04 @ Coleraine L 0-229.2 1044 1253 10.57% 17.14% 72.28%-1.73 -2.7 18
1983-04-04 Glenavon W 1-037.9 1038 1035 53.18% 19.15% 27.67%+0.40 +3.5 15
1983-04-04 @ Lisburn Distillery L 0-137.9 1035 1038 27.67% 19.15% 53.18%-0.40 -3.5 12
1983-04-05 Linfield L 0-334.3 1211 1369 31.45% 18.99% 49.56%-0.65 -10.7 23
1983-04-05 @ Crusaders W 3-034.3 1369 1211 49.56% 18.99% 31.45%+0.65 +10.7 31
1983-04-05 Cliftonville D 1-155.6 1317 1157 68.71% 17.82% 13.47%+1.41 -1.6 24
1983-04-05 @ Glentoran D 1-155.6 1157 1317 13.47% 17.82% 68.71%-1.41 +1.6 18
1983-04-09 Bangor W 5-130.6 1041 883 68.54% 17.85% 13.61%+1.40 +5.5 20
1983-04-09 @ Ards L 1-530.6 883 1041 13.61% 17.85% 68.54%-1.40 -5.5 4
1983-04-09 Portadown D 0-050.9 1102 1178 42.70% 19.28% 38.02%-0.11 -0.1 18
1983-04-09 @ Ballymena United D 0-050.9 1178 1102 38.02% 19.28% 42.70%+0.11 +0.1 22
1983-04-09 Crusaders W 1-039.8 1159 1200 47.47% 19.27% 33.26%+0.11 +4.1 20
1983-04-09 @ Cliftonville L 0-139.8 1200 1159 33.26% 19.27% 47.47%-0.11 -4.1 23
1983-04-09 Coleraine D 0-051.2 1031 1256 23.78% 18.47% 57.75%-1.07 +1.0 13
1983-04-09 @ Glenavon D 0-051.2 1256 1031 57.75% 18.47% 23.78%+1.07 -1.0 25
1983-04-09 Glentoran W 2-045.5 1030 1316 18.07% 17.78% 64.15%-1.47 +13.7 15
1983-04-09 @ Larne L 0-245.5 1316 1030 64.15% 17.78% 18.07%+1.47 -13.7 24
1983-04-09 Lisburn Distillery D 0-052.4 1380 1042 79.40% 15.02% 5.58%+2.56 -2.4 32
1983-04-09 @ Linfield D 0-052.4 1042 1380 5.58% 15.02% 79.40%-2.56 +2.4 16
1983-04-15 Ballymena United W 1-032.6 1302 1101 71.67% 17.27% 11.06%+1.67 +1.5 26
1983-04-15 @ Glentoran L 0-132.6 1101 1302 11.06% 17.27% 71.67%-1.67 -1.5 18
1983-04-16 Glenavon D 0-050.9 878 1032 31.93% 19.01% 49.05%-0.62 +0.5 5
1983-04-16 @ Bangor D 0-050.9 1032 878 49.05% 19.01% 31.93%+0.62 -0.5 14
1983-04-16 Linfield D 0-052.1 1255 1378 36.17% 19.17% 44.66%-0.41 +0.2 26
1983-04-16 @ Coleraine D 0-052.1 1378 1255 44.66% 19.17% 36.17%+0.41 -0.2 33
1983-04-16 Cliftonville L 0-140.6 1043 1163 36.55% 19.18% 44.27%-0.40 -4.5 15
1983-04-16 @ Larne W 1-040.6 1163 1043 44.27% 19.18% 36.55%+0.40 +4.5 22
1983-04-16 Crusaders L 1-635.6 1044 1196 32.25% 19.03% 48.72%-0.60 -14.6 16
1983-04-16 @ Lisburn Distillery W 6-135.6 1196 1044 48.72% 19.03% 32.25%+0.60 +14.6 25
1983-04-16 Ards W 3-135.8 1178 1046 66.38% 18.16% 15.46%+1.22 +3.4 24
1983-04-16 @ Portadown L 1-335.8 1046 1178 15.46% 18.16% 66.38%-1.22 -3.4 20
1983-04-19 Glenavon W 4-130.3 1304 1032 76.05% 16.17% 7.78%+2.13 +2.4 28
1983-04-19 @ Glentoran L 1-430.3 1032 1304 7.78% 16.17% 76.05%-2.13 -2.4 14
1983-04-21 Linfield W 1-046.5 1181 1378 26.90% 18.72% 54.37%-0.89 +6.2 26
1983-04-21 @ Portadown L 0-146.5 1378 1181 54.37% 18.72% 26.90%+0.89 -6.2 33
1983-04-23 Glentoran L 1-337.3 1043 1306 20.08% 18.06% 61.85%-1.32 -4.3 20
1983-04-23 @ Ards W 3-137.3 1306 1043 61.85% 18.06% 20.08%+1.32 +4.3 30
1983-04-23 Larne W 4-241.7 1100 1039 59.73% 18.82% 21.45%+0.77 +4.1 20
1983-04-23 @ Ballymena United L 2-441.7 1039 1100 21.45% 18.82% 59.73%-0.77 -4.1 15
1983-04-23 Coleraine L 1-345.9 1211 1255 47.00% 19.27% 33.72%+0.09 -9.0 25
1983-04-23 @ Crusaders W 3-145.9 1255 1211 33.72% 19.27% 47.00%-0.09 +9.0 28
1983-04-23 Portadown W 1-044.5 1029 1187 31.50% 18.99% 49.51%-0.64 +5.7 16
1983-04-23 @ Glenavon L 0-144.5 1187 1029 49.51% 18.99% 31.50%+0.64 -5.7 26
1983-04-23 Bangor W 6-022.1 1371 878 85.33% 12.12% 2.54%+3.56 +1.7 35
1983-04-23 @ Linfield L 0-622.1 878 1371 2.54% 12.12% 85.33%-3.56 -1.7 5
1983-04-23 Cliftonville W 2-148.3 1029 1167 34.07% 19.10% 46.83%-0.51 +5.2 18
1983-04-23 @ Lisburn Distillery L 1-248.3 1167 1029 46.83% 19.10% 34.07%+0.51 -5.2 22
1983-04-26 Ballymena United W 1-036.1 1162 1104 59.44% 18.84% 21.73%+0.75 +2.9 24
1983-04-26 @ Cliftonville L 0-136.1 1104 1162 21.73% 18.84% 59.44%-0.75 -2.8 20
1983-04-26 Ards L 2-354.6 1035 1039 52.28% 19.18% 28.55%+0.35 -5.4 15
1983-04-26 @ Larne W 3-254.6 1039 1035 28.55% 19.18% 52.28%-0.35 +5.4 22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1982-12-28 11.42% Glenavon 1017 1 @ Crusaders 1211 0
2 1983-04-02 13.78% Portadown 1170 1 @ Glentoran 1325 0
3 1983-02-05 14.97% Bangor 911 2 @ Lisburn Distillery 1049 1
4 1982-12-28 15.37% Ballymena United 1097 4 @ Coleraine 1230 2
5 1983-01-15 16.41% Glenavon 1049 1 @ Portadown 1168 0
6 1983-04-09 18.07% @ Larne 1030 2 Glentoran 1316 0
7 1983-03-12 18.86% Coleraine 1240 1 @ Glentoran 1329 0
8 1983-01-03 20.33% Ballymena United 1107 2 @ Portadown 1179 1
9 1982-12-18 21.35% Larne 1023 4 @ Lisburn Distillery 1085 1
10 1982-12-27 24.17% Lisburn Distillery 1069 2 @ Ballymena United 1103 1
11 1983-02-05 25.35% Larne 1029 1 @ Glenavon 1052 0
12 1982-12-27 26.05% @ Ards 1017 3 Crusaders 1221 1
13 1982-12-27 26.56% Portadown 1168 1 @ Cliftonville 1181 0
14 1982-12-27 26.84% @ Larne 1038 3 Coleraine 1235 2
15 1983-04-21 26.90% @ Portadown 1181 1 Linfield 1378 0
16 1983-01-29 26.94% @ Lisburn Distillery 1043 2 Coleraine 1239 1
17 1983-04-26 28.55% Ards 1039 3 @ Larne 1035 2
18 1983-04-23 31.50% @ Glenavon 1029 1 Portadown 1187 0
19 1983-01-08 32.18% @ Ards 1020 3 Portadown 1173 2
20 1983-04-23 33.72% Coleraine 1255 3 @ Crusaders 1211 1
21 1983-04-23 34.07% @ Lisburn Distillery 1029 2 Cliftonville 1167 1
22 1982-12-28 35.88% @ Portadown 1174 1 Glentoran 1299 0
23 1983-01-15 37.24% Ballymena United 1108 2 @ Larne 1037 1
24 1982-12-04 37.68% Ballymena United 1114 3 @ Glenavon 1041 1
25 1982-12-04 38.51% @ Crusaders 1200 2 Glentoran 1306 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1983-01-01 18.84 @ Glenavon 5 1025 45.95% Lisburn Distillery 0 1078 34.77% 19.28%
2 1983-02-05 17.15 @ Ards 4 1027 40.71% Ballymena United 0 1117 40.03% 19.26%
3 1982-12-18 16.84 Portadown 6 1151 56.37% @ Bangor 0 938 25.05% 18.58%
4 1982-12-18 15.80 Larne 4 1023 21.35% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1085 59.84% 18.81%
5 1983-01-15 14.76 @ Coleraine 5 1225 54.88% Crusaders 0 1207 26.04% 19.09%
6 1983-04-16 14.63 Crusaders 6 1196 48.72% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1044 32.25% 19.03%
7 1983-04-09 13.71 @ Larne 2 1030 18.07% Glentoran 0 1316 64.15% 17.78%
8 1982-12-18 12.99 @ Crusaders 6 1208 62.84% Ballymena United 0 1116 18.60% 18.56%
9 1982-11-27 11.69 @ Glentoran 3 1294 46.01% Linfield 0 1346 34.71% 19.28%
10 1982-12-28 11.07 Ballymena United 4 1097 15.37% @ Coleraine 2 1230 66.48% 18.15%
11 1983-04-02 10.89 Crusaders 3 1200 49.02% @ Glenavon 0 1046 31.96% 19.01%
12 1983-04-05 10.74 Linfield 3 1369 49.56% @ Crusaders 0 1211 31.45% 18.99%
13 1982-12-27 10.33 @ Ards 3 1017 26.05% Crusaders 1 1221 55.29% 18.66%
14 1983-02-12 9.90 Ballymena United 3 1100 52.52% @ Bangor 0 918 28.64% 18.84%
15 1983-01-01 9.47 Coleraine 3 1219 54.04% @ Ards 0 1025 27.22% 18.75%
16 1983-04-23 8.96 Coleraine 3 1255 33.72% @ Crusaders 1 1211 47.00% 19.27%
17 1983-03-19 8.47 @ Portadown 4 1157 51.86% Cliftonville 1 1165 28.95% 19.19%
18 1983-01-03 8.38 Linfield 4 1349 64.52% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1059 17.75% 17.73%
19 1982-12-04 8.31 Ballymena United 3 1114 37.68% @ Glenavon 1 1041 43.04% 19.28%
20 1982-12-28 8.10 Glenavon 1 1017 11.42% @ Crusaders 0 1211 71.21% 17.37%
21 1983-04-02 7.78 Portadown 1 1170 13.78% @ Glentoran 0 1325 68.34% 17.88%
22 1982-12-18 7.56 @ Coleraine 3 1228 42.38% Glentoran 1 1306 38.35% 19.27%
23 1983-02-26 7.49 Cliftonville 3 1159 60.88% @ Bangor 0 905 20.95% 18.17%
24 1983-01-15 7.44 Glenavon 1 1049 16.41% @ Portadown 0 1168 65.29% 18.30%
25 1983-01-01 7.24 Glentoran 3 1294 44.41% @ Cliftonville 1 1173 36.42% 19.17%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1982-11-27 66.0 @ Ballymena United 4 1115 63.60% Ards 4 1015 17.91% 18.48%
2 1983-03-26 64.3 @ Coleraine 3 1248 72.16% Lisburn Distillery 3 1041 10.67% 17.17%
3 1983-02-05 61.5 @ Linfield 2 1363 57.96% Glentoran 2 1318 23.11% 18.93%
4 1983-01-01 59.8 @ Larne 2 1044 34.37% Portadown 2 1180 46.52% 19.11%
5 1983-03-12 59.7 @ Larne 2 1031 52.21% Lisburn Distillery 2 1036 28.61% 19.18%
6 1983-04-05 55.6 @ Glentoran 1 1317 68.71% Cliftonville 1 1157 13.47% 17.82%
7 1983-01-03 55.4 @ Coleraine 1 1228 70.51% Glenavon 1 1044 11.99% 17.50%
8 1983-01-01 55.3 @ Ballymena United 1 1108 70.73% Bangor 1 921 11.81% 17.46%
9 1982-12-27 55.2 @ Larne 3 1038 26.84% Coleraine 2 1235 54.44% 18.72%
10 1983-02-26 55.2 @ Coleraine 1 1241 62.24% Portadown 1 1155 19.15% 18.62%
11 1982-12-28 55.1 Ballymena United 4 1097 15.37% @ Coleraine 2 1230 66.48% 18.15%
12 1983-03-12 55.1 @ Cliftonville 1 1166 65.46% Glenavon 1 1046 16.26% 18.28%
13 1982-12-11 54.9 @ Portadown 1 1151 42.68% Coleraine 1 1228 38.04% 19.28%
14 1982-12-28 54.8 @ Bangor 1 921 36.08% Larne 1 1044 44.75% 19.16%
15 1983-04-26 54.6 Ards 3 1039 28.55% @ Larne 2 1035 52.28% 19.18%
16 1983-02-05 54.0 Bangor 2 911 14.97% @ Lisburn Distillery 1 1049 66.95% 18.08%
17 1983-01-08 53.6 @ Ards 3 1020 32.18% Portadown 2 1173 48.80% 19.02%
18 1983-01-03 52.5 Ballymena United 2 1107 20.33% @ Portadown 1 1179 60.94% 18.73%
19 1983-04-09 52.4 @ Linfield 0 1380 79.40% Lisburn Distillery 0 1042 5.58% 15.02%
20 1982-12-18 52.2 @ Linfield 0 1342 78.86% Ards 0 1015 5.92% 15.23%
21 1983-04-16 52.1 @ Coleraine 0 1255 36.17% Linfield 0 1378 44.66% 19.17%
22 1983-04-02 51.6 @ Cliftonville 0 1156 24.97% Linfield 0 1370 56.46% 18.57%
23 1983-03-19 51.4 @ Crusaders 0 1202 68.97% Ards 0 1038 13.25% 17.78%
24 1982-12-27 51.3 Lisburn Distillery 2 1069 24.17% @ Ballymena United 1 1103 56.84% 19.00%
25 1983-02-19 51.2 @ Cliftonville 0 1160 65.09% Ards 0 1044 16.59% 18.32%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1983-04-23 22.1 @ Linfield 6 1371 85.33% Bangor 0 878 2.54% 12.12%
2 1983-01-03 24.7 @ Glentoran 5 1301 75.21% Larne 0 1044 8.38% 16.42%
3 1982-12-11 25.1 @ Cliftonville 5 1172 73.42% Bangor 0 944 9.70% 16.88%
4 1982-12-11 25.7 @ Glentoran 4 1301 72.37% Lisburn Distillery 0 1090 10.51% 17.12%
5 1983-03-19 25.7 Glentoran 3 1322 75.40% @ Bangor 0 890 9.05% 15.55%
6 1983-01-03 28.1 Linfield 4 1349 64.52% @ Lisburn Distillery 0 1059 17.75% 17.73%
7 1982-12-27 28.4 Linfield 3 1340 66.95% @ Glenavon 0 1023 15.68% 17.37%
8 1983-03-05 28.8 Crusaders 3 1196 65.25% @ Bangor 0 898 17.12% 17.63%
9 1982-12-18 28.9 @ Crusaders 6 1208 62.84% Ballymena United 0 1116 18.60% 18.56%
10 1983-02-19 29.2 @ Glentoran 3 1319 65.34% Crusaders 0 1200 16.37% 18.29%
11 1983-04-04 29.2 @ Coleraine 2 1253 72.28% Ards 0 1044 10.57% 17.14%
12 1982-12-04 30.1 @ Coleraine 4 1225 76.42% Bangor 1 946 7.52% 16.06%
13 1983-01-15 30.1 @ Glentoran 4 1312 76.83% Ards 1 1025 7.24% 15.93%
14 1983-02-26 30.1 Cliftonville 3 1159 60.88% @ Bangor 0 905 20.95% 18.17%
15 1983-04-19 30.3 @ Glentoran 4 1304 76.05% Glenavon 1 1032 7.78% 16.17%
16 1983-04-09 30.6 @ Ards 5 1041 68.54% Bangor 1 883 13.61% 17.85%
17 1983-03-26 30.7 @ Portadown 2 1166 66.82% Larne 0 1029 15.08% 18.10%
18 1982-12-18 30.8 Portadown 6 1151 56.37% @ Bangor 0 938 25.05% 18.58%
19 1983-01-15 30.9 @ Coleraine 5 1225 54.88% Crusaders 0 1207 26.04% 19.09%
20 1983-02-26 30.9 @ Linfield 4 1364 74.76% Ballymena United 1 1115 8.70% 16.54%
21 1983-01-15 31.2 @ Cliftonville 2 1165 65.18% Lisburn Distillery 0 1047 16.51% 18.31%
22 1983-03-19 32.1 @ Coleraine 1 1247 72.71% Larne 0 1031 10.24% 17.05%
23 1983-01-01 32.2 Coleraine 3 1219 54.04% @ Ards 0 1025 27.22% 18.75%
24 1983-03-19 32.3 @ Linfield 3 1369 78.63% Glenavon 1 1047 6.06% 15.31%
25 1982-12-04 32.5 @ Linfield 3 1334 77.87% Larne 1 1028 6.54% 15.58%