2026-27 NIFL Premiership Season
56 games played · 12 teams
Season Status
In Progress
Awaiting final results
Title Favorite
Larne
46.46% chance to win the title
Biggest Overachiever
Linfield
6.81 points above expected
22 points · 15.19 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Portadown
6.52 points below expected
4 points · 10.52 expected points
League Table
Each team's record through games played. SimPts is the model's expected points through the same games — the sum over completed games of pregame win-probability × 3 plus tie-probability × 1. vsSim shows actual points minus that expectation — positive means the team has overachieved against the model so far.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 25 | 22 | 10 | +12 | 20.61 | +4.39 |
| 2 | Linfield | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 22 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 15.19 | +6.81 |
| 3 | Larne | 6 | 5 | 1 | 0 | 16 | 12 | 3 | +9 | 11.83 | +4.17 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 16 | 15 | 10 | +5 | 18.79 | -2.79 |
| 5 | Crusaders | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 15 | 15 | 18 | -3 | 11.72 | +3.28 |
| 6 | Carrick Rangers | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | 13 | 15 | 15 | 0 | 14.99 | -1.99 |
| 7 | Dungannon Swifts | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 13 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 10.66 | +2.34 |
| 8 | Ballymena United | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 11.20 | +0.80 |
| 9 | Cliftonville | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 12 | 0 | 14.89 | -2.89 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 9 | 3 | 0 | 6 | 9 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 11.74 | -2.74 |
| 11 | Bangor | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 22 | -12 | 9.64 | -4.64 |
| 12 | Portadown | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 8 | 20 | -12 | 10.52 | -6.52 |
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linfield | 22 | 15.19 | +6.81 |
| 2 | Coleraine | 25 | 20.61 | +4.39 |
| 3 | Larne | 16 | 11.83 | +4.17 |
| 4 | Crusaders | 15 | 11.72 | +3.28 |
| 5 | Dungannon Swifts | 13 | 10.66 | +2.34 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portadown | 4 | 10.52 | -6.52 |
| 2 | Bangor | 5 | 9.64 | -4.64 |
| 3 | Cliftonville | 12 | 14.89 | -2.89 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 16 | 18.79 | -2.79 |
| 5 | Limavady United | 9 | 11.74 | -2.74 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.
Most Unlikely Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dungannon Swifts | 4 | Aug 15 – Sep 5 | 1 in 41 |
| 2 | Linfield | 5 | Aug 15 – Sep 12 | 1 in 33 |
| 3 | Crusaders | 3 | Aug 15 – Aug 29 | 1 in 28 |
| 4 | Coleraine | 6 | Aug 22 – Sep 19 | 1 in 13 |
| 5 | Larne | 5 | Sep 4 – Sep 19 | 1 in 8 |
Most Unlikely Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portadown | 6 | Aug 8 – Sep 12 | 1 in 26 |
| 2 | Cliftonville | 4 | Sep 15 – Oct 3 | 1 in 19 |
| 3 | Limavady United | 4 | Aug 8 – Sep 5 | 1 in 14 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 2 | Aug 29 – Sep 4 | 1 in 11 |
| 5 | Bangor | 3 | Aug 15 – Aug 29 | 1 in 6 |
Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Linfield | 8 | Aug 15 – Sep 25 | 1 in 52 |
| 2 | Dungannon Swifts | 4 | Aug 15 – Sep 5 | 1 in 15 |
| 3 | Ballymena United | 4 | Sep 15 – Oct 3 | 1 in 12 |
| 4 | Crusaders | 3 | Aug 15 – Aug 29 | 1 in 11 |
| 5 | Coleraine | 8 | Aug 8 – Sep 19 | 1 in 11 |
Most Unlikely Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glentoran | 4 | Aug 29 – Sep 15 | 1 in 37 |
| 2 | Portadown | 9 | Aug 8 – Sep 26 | 1 in 31 |
| 3 | Ballymena United | 6 | Aug 15 – Sep 19 | 1 in 18 |
| 4 | Carrick Rangers | 5 | Sep 5 – Sep 26 | 1 in 14 |
| 5 | Bangor | 7 | Aug 15 – Sep 15 | 1 in 10 |
Position Race
Each team’s league position across the whole season. The current top 3 and bottom 3 are highlighted; everyone else is gray as context.
Recent Elo Movers
Which teams are the hottest and coldest over the last 14 days according to their Elo ratings?
Biggest Elo Gainers
| # | Team | Δ Elo | Current Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Portadown | +72.16 | 970 |
| 2 | Glentoran | +45.95 | 1210 |
| 3 | Carrick Rangers | +41.85 | 1111 |
| 4 | Bangor | +38.70 | 954 |
| 5 | Limavady United | +26.41 | 1034 |
Biggest Elo Losers
| # | Team | Δ Elo | Current Elo |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders | -68.75 | 1009 |
| 2 | Coleraine | -59.08 | 1253 |
| 3 | Dungannon Swifts | -36.35 | 1014 |
| 4 | Larne | -23.32 | 1263 |
| 5 | Cliftonville | -17.12 | 1075 |
Recent Form
Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.
| Team | Elo | Season Pts | Form | Elo Δ (5) | Points (5) | Expected (5) | Actual − Exp |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coleraine | 1253 | 25 | -2 | 12 | 10.5 | +1.5 | |
| Linfield | 1172 | 22 | +22 | 13 | 8.5 | +4.5 | |
| Larne | 1263 | 16 | +22 | 15 | 10.5 | +4.5 | |
| Glentoran | 1210 | 16 | +9 | 10 | 9.6 | +0.4 | |
| Crusaders | 1009 | 15 | -3 | 6 | 6.6 | -0.6 | |
| Carrick Rangers | 1111 | 13 | -11 | 4 | 7.2 | -3.2 | |
| Dungannon Swifts | 1014 | 13 | -12 | 4 | 6.0 | -2.0 | |
| Ballymena United | 1048 | 12 | +12 | 8 | 6.2 | +1.8 | |
| Cliftonville | 1075 | 12 | -11 | 3 | 6.3 | -3.3 | |
| Limavady United | 1034 | 9 | +5 | 9 | 6.9 | +2.1 | |
| Bangor | 954 | 5 | -1 | 4 | 4.6 | -0.6 | |
| Portadown | 970 | 4 | -9 | 4 | 5.1 | -1.1 |
Upcoming Matches
The next slate of games with the model’s win / draw probabilities and an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo.
| Date | Favored By | Home | Win% – Draw% – Win% | Away | Favored By | Excitement | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | 1.40 | Larne | 16 pts·1240 | 71% – 11% – 19% | Limavady United | 9 pts·1049 | 32.8 | |
| 2026-08-29 | Ballymena United | 12 pts·1036 | 22% – 11% – 67% | Larne | 16 pts·1240 | 1.16 | 37.2 |
Recent Matches
The most recent results with an excitement rating (0–100). Beside each team: record · pre-game Elo · Elo change.
| Date | Favored By | Home | Score | Away | Favored By | Excitement | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-04 | Bangor | 5 pts·956·-1.66 | 2 – 3 | Coleraine | 25 pts·1251·+1.65 | 1.75 | 43.7 | |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.65 | Carrick Rangers | 13 pts·1098·+13.71 | 4 – 0 | Crusaders | 15 pts·1022·-13.71 | 29.2 | |
| 2026-10-03 | 0.41 | Cliftonville | 12 pts·1081·-6.30 | 0 – 1 | Ballymena United | 12 pts·1042·+6.29 | 43.1 | |
| 2026-10-03 | 1.37 | Glentoran | 16 pts·1205·+4.59 | 2 – 0 | Dungannon Swifts | 13 pts·1018·-4.59 | 28.0 | |
| 2026-10-03 | Portadown | 4 pts·960·+10.18 | 3 – 1 | Limavady United | 9 pts·1044·-10.18 | 0.38 | 45.2 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
Beat expectations
Fell short
Within expectations
| Team | BU | BAN | CR | CLI | COL | CRU | DS | GLE | LAR | LU | LIN | POR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ballymena United | — |
0-1-0
1.68
|
0-1-0
1.22
|
1-0-0
1.18
|
0-0-1
0.60
|
0-0-1
1.55
|
0-1-0
1.41
|
0-0-1
0.90
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
0.86
|
1-0-0
1.82
|
| Bangor |
0-1-0
1.21
|
— |
0-0-1
0.96
|
0-0-1
1.15
|
0-0-1
0.54
|
0-0-1
1.10
|
0-0-1
1.23
|
0-1-0
0.54
|
0-0-1
0.45
|
0-0-1
1.03
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.44
|
| Carrick Rangers |
0-1-0
1.67
|
1-0-0
1.93
|
— |
0-0-1
1.70
|
0-0-1
1.08
|
1-0-0
1.85
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
0.97
|
0-0-1
0.97
|
1-0-0
1.61
|
0-0-1
1.24
|
1-0-0
1.97
|
| Cliftonville |
0-0-1
1.71
|
1-0-0
1.74
|
1-0-0
1.19
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.87
|
0-0-1
1.87
|
0-0-1
1.12
|
0-0-1
0.77
|
0-0-1
1.54
|
0-0-1
1.17
|
1-0-0
1.92
|
| Coleraine |
1-0-0
2.29
|
1-0-0
2.36
|
1-0-0
1.81
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
1-0-0
2.33
|
1-0-0
2.19
|
1-0-0
1.58
|
0-1-0
1.53
|
1-0-0
2.30
|
0-0-1
1.95
|
1-0-0
2.26
|
| Crusaders |
1-0-0
1.34
|
1-0-0
1.79
|
0-0-1
1.04
|
0-0-1
1.02
|
0-0-1
0.56
|
— |
1-0-0
1.44
|
1-0-0
0.63
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
1.48
|
0-0-1
0.83
|
1-0-0
1.59
|
| Dungannon Swifts |
0-1-0
1.48
|
1-0-0
1.66
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.02
|
0-0-1
0.70
|
0-0-1
1.45
|
— |
0-0-1
0.68
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.28
|
0-0-1
1.07
|
1-0-0
1.33
|
| Glentoran |
1-0-0
1.99
|
0-1-0
2.36
|
1-0-0
1.92
|
1-0-0
1.77
|
0-0-1
1.31
|
0-0-1
2.26
|
1-0-0
2.21
|
— |
0-0-1
1.19
|
1-0-0
2.10
|
0-0-1
1.68
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
| Larne |
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
2.45
|
1-0-0
1.92
|
1-0-0
2.12
|
0-1-0
1.35
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.70
|
— |
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
2.29
|
| Limavady United |
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.86
|
0-0-1
1.28
|
1-0-0
1.34
|
0-0-1
0.59
|
1-0-0
1.41
|
0-0-1
1.61
|
0-0-1
0.79
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
— |
0-0-1
1.16
|
0-0-1
1.69
|
| Linfield |
0-0-1
2.02
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.64
|
1-0-0
1.71
|
1-0-0
0.94
|
1-0-0
2.06
|
1-0-0
1.82
|
1-0-0
1.21
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
1-0-0
1.73
|
— |
0-1-0
2.05
|
| Portadown |
0-0-1
1.07
|
0-0-1
1.45
|
0-0-1
0.91
|
0-0-1
0.96
|
0-0-1
0.64
|
0-0-1
1.30
|
0-0-1
1.56
|
0-0-0
0.00
|
0-0-1
0.60
|
1-0-0
1.19
|
0-1-0
0.84
|
— |
Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential
Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).
Fit Metrics
| R² | Slope | |
|---|---|---|
| Scored | 0.57 | +11.8 |
| Allowed | 0.50 | -7.7 |
| Differential | 0.83 | +7.4 |
Scoreline Distribution
Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.79% | 8.93% | 10.71% | 3.57% | 1.79% | — | 26.79% |
| 1 | 8.93% | 7.14% | 8.93% | 6.25% | 0.89% | — | 32.14% |
| 2 | 10.71% | 8.93% | 1.79% | 2.68% | — | 0.89% | 25.00% |
| 3 | 3.57% | 6.25% | 2.68% | — | — | — | 12.50% |
| 4 | 1.79% | 0.89% | — | — | — | — | 2.68% |
| 5+ | — | — | 0.89% | — | — | — | 0.89% |
| Total | 26.79% | 32.14% | 25.00% | 12.50% | 2.68% | 0.89% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.35 | 1.35 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.14 | 1.14 | 1.83 |
| CV | 0.84 | 0.84 | — |
| Max | 5 | 5 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 56
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | 11.11% | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 1 | 11.11% | 22.22% | 11.11% | — | — | — | 44.44% |
| 2 | 11.11% | — | 11.11% | 11.11% | — | — | 33.33% |
| 3 | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 33.33% | 22.22% | 33.33% | 11.11% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.44 | 1.22 | +0.22 |
| SD | 0.88 | 1.09 | 1.56 |
| CV | 0.61 | 0.89 | — |
| Max | 3 | 3 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 9
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 40.00% |
| 1 | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 2 | — | — | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 30.00% | 30.00% | 30.00% | 10.00% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 2.20 | -1.20 |
| SD | 1.05 | 1.03 | 1.69 |
| CV | 1.05 | 0.47 | — |
| Max | 3 | 4 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -4 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 1 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 2 | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% | 20.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 30.00% | 30.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.50 | 1.50 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.51 | 1.58 | 2.49 |
| CV | 1.01 | 1.05 | — |
| Max | 4 | 5 | +4 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 30.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 1 | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 2 | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 3 | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 60.00% | 30.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.20 | 1.20 | +0.00 |
| SD | 1.40 | 0.63 | 1.83 |
| CV | 1.17 | 0.53 | — |
| Max | 3 | 2 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 1 | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 20.00% |
| 2 | 10.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 3 | 10.00% | 10.00% | 20.00% | — | — | — | 40.00% |
| 4 | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 40.00% | 30.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.20 | 1.00 | +1.20 |
| SD | 1.23 | 1.05 | 1.48 |
| CV | 0.56 | 1.05 | — |
| Max | 4 | 3 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% | — | 20.00% |
| 1 | — | — | 20.00% | — | 10.00% | — | 30.00% |
| 2 | — | 30.00% | — | — | — | — | 30.00% |
| 3 | 10.00% | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | 20.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 10.00% | 40.00% | 30.00% | — | 20.00% | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.50 | 1.80 | -0.30 |
| SD | 1.08 | 1.32 | 2.11 |
| CV | 0.72 | 0.73 | — |
| Max | 3 | 4 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -4 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 11.11% | 11.11% | 11.11% | — | — | 33.33% |
| 1 | 11.11% | 11.11% | — | 11.11% | — | — | 33.33% |
| 2 | 33.33% | — | — | — | — | — | 33.33% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 44.44% | 22.22% | 11.11% | 22.22% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.00 | 1.11 | -0.11 |
| SD | 0.87 | 1.27 | 1.96 |
| CV | 0.87 | 1.14 | — |
| Max | 2 | 3 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 9
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | 10.00% | 40.00% | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 2 | 40.00% | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 40.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.50 | 1.00 | +0.50 |
| SD | 0.53 | 0.94 | 1.43 |
| CV | 0.35 | 0.94 | — |
| Max | 2 | 2 | +2 |
| Min | 1 | 0 | -1 |
Games Played: 10
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.67% | — | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 1 | 16.67% | — | — | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| 2 | 33.33% | 16.67% | — | — | — | — | 50.00% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | 16.67% | — | — | — | 16.67% |
| Total | 66.67% | 16.67% | 16.67% | — | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 2.00 | 0.50 | +1.50 |
| SD | 1.67 | 0.84 | 1.05 |
| CV | 0.84 | 1.67 | — |
| Max | 5 | 2 | +3 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | +0 |
Games Played: 6
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 11.11% | 33.33% | — | — | — | 44.44% |
| 1 | 11.11% | — | 11.11% | 11.11% | — | — | 33.33% |
| 2 | — | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 3 | — | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 11.11% | 33.33% | 44.44% | 11.11% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.89 | 1.56 | -0.67 |
| SD | 1.05 | 0.88 | 1.58 |
| CV | 1.19 | 0.57 | — |
| Max | 3 | 3 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -2 |
Games Played: 9
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | 11.11% | — | — | 11.11% |
| 1 | 44.44% | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | 55.56% |
| 2 | 11.11% | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | 22.22% |
| 3 | — | 11.11% | — | — | — | — | 11.11% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 55.56% | 33.33% | — | 11.11% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 1.33 | 0.67 | +0.67 |
| SD | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.50 |
| CV | 0.65 | 1.50 | — |
| Max | 3 | 3 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 0 | -3 |
Games Played: 9
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 20.00% | 20.00% | 10.00% | — | — | 50.00% |
| 1 | — | 10.00% | — | 20.00% | — | — | 30.00% |
| 2 | — | — | — | 10.00% | — | — | 10.00% |
| 3 | — | 10.00% | — | — | — | — | 10.00% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 40.00% | 20.00% | 40.00% | — | — | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Scored | Allowed | Difference | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mean | 0.80 | 2.00 | -1.20 |
| SD | 1.03 | 0.94 | 1.40 |
| CV | 1.29 | 0.47 | — |
| Max | 3 | 3 | +2 |
| Min | 0 | 1 | -3 |
Games Played: 10
Season Summary
Every team's season-to-date record alongside the projected end-of-season points totals from 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Exp. Pts. Rem. is the expected additional points the model thinks the team will accumulate over the rest of the season.
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Exp. Pts. Rem. | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Larne | 1263 | 16 | 73.12 | 57.12 | 44 | 62 | 69 | 73 | 78 | 84 | 93 |
| Coleraine | 1253 | 25 | 72.55 | 47.55 | 47 | 62 | 68 | 73 | 77 | 82 | 94 |
| Glentoran | 1210 | 16 | 60.31 | 44.31 | 40 | 50 | 56 | 60 | 65 | 70 | 81 |
| Linfield | 1172 | 22 | 63.91 | 41.91 | 41 | 53 | 60 | 64 | 68 | 75 | 85 |
| Carrick Rangers | 1111 | 13 | 48.54 | 35.54 | 23 | 38 | 44 | 48 | 53 | 59 | 72 |
| Cliftonville | 1075 | 12 | 42.92 | 30.92 | 20 | 32 | 38 | 43 | 47 | 54 | 70 |
| Ballymena United | 1048 | 12 | 42.40 | 30.40 | 22 | 32 | 38 | 42 | 47 | 53 | 64 |
| Limavady United | 1034 | 9 | 37.75 | 28.75 | 16 | 27 | 33 | 38 | 42 | 49 | 62 |
| Dungannon Swifts | 1014 | 13 | 39.61 | 26.61 | 18 | 29 | 35 | 39 | 44 | 50 | 66 |
| Crusaders | 1009 | 15 | 40.04 | 25.04 | 19 | 30 | 36 | 40 | 44 | 50 | 63 |
| Portadown | 970 | 4 | 25.88 | 21.88 | 6 | 16 | 22 | 26 | 30 | 36 | 50 |
| Bangor | 954 | 5 | 25.32 | 20.32 | 7 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 29 | 36 | 49 |
Point Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Season Trends
How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.
Season metrics are available for completed seasons.
Final Table Odds
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coleraine | 44.97% | 38.57% | 12.67% | 3.54% | 0.24% | 0.01% | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Linfield | 6.60% | 17.09% | 43.50% | 27.27% | 4.27% | 0.96% | 0.24% | 0.05% | 0.02% | — | — | — |
| Larne | 46.46% | 36.41% | 13.13% | 3.63% | 0.31% | 0.05% | 0.01% | — | — | — | — | — |
| Glentoran | 1.96% | 7.65% | 27.82% | 49.63% | 9.63% | 2.27% | 0.77% | 0.24% | 0.02% | 0.01% | — | — |
| Crusaders | — | — | 0.09% | 0.69% | 6.99% | 12.73% | 16.69% | 19.56% | 20.42% | 16.78% | 5.15% | 0.90% |
| Carrick Rangers | 0.01% | 0.19% | 1.97% | 9.49% | 38.08% | 22.10% | 13.42% | 7.82% | 4.45% | 2.07% | 0.36% | 0.04% |
| Dungannon Swifts | — | — | 0.10% | 0.79% | 6.56% | 12.26% | 16.43% | 19.07% | 20.61% | 17.80% | 5.30% | 1.08% |
| Ballymena United | — | 0.03% | 0.31% | 2.17% | 14.59% | 19.73% | 19.59% | 17.07% | 13.69% | 9.92% | 2.56% | 0.34% |
| Cliftonville | — | 0.06% | 0.38% | 2.39% | 15.25% | 21.14% | 19.79% | 17.06% | 12.72% | 8.49% | 2.32% | 0.40% |
| Limavady United | — | — | 0.03% | 0.40% | 3.99% | 8.33% | 12.06% | 16.45% | 21.05% | 26.01% | 9.24% | 2.44% |
| Bangor | — | — | — | — | 0.05% | 0.18% | 0.40% | 1.26% | 3.13% | 8.93% | 38.50% | 47.55% |
| Portadown | — | — | — | — | 0.04% | 0.24% | 0.60% | 1.42% | 3.89% | 9.99% | 36.57% | 47.25% |
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Next-Season Status
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | Qualified for Championship Round | Survived Relegation Round | Relegated |
|---|---|---|---|
| Coleraine | 100% | — | — |
| Glentoran | 100% | — | — |
| Larne | 100% | — | — |
| Linfield | 100% | — | — |
| Carrick Rangers | 99.64% | 0.32% | 0.04% |
| Cliftonville | 97.33% | 2.33% | 0.34% |
| Ballymena United | 96.48% | 2.95% | 0.57% |
| Dungannon Swifts | 92.01% | 6.55% | 1.44% |
| Crusaders | 92.60% | 5.87% | 1.53% |
| Limavady United | 88.75% | 8.65% | 2.60% |
| Portadown | 18.35% | 38.36% | 43.29% |
| Bangor | 14.84% | 34.97% | 50.19% |
Overall Game Log
Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Excitement | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Proj. Margin | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07 | Crusaders | W 2-1 | 42.9 | 1082 | 1003 | 58.45% | 11.22% | 30.32% | +0.67 | +3.6 | 3 |
| 2026-08-07 | @ Cliftonville | L 1-2 | 42.9 | 1003 | 1082 | 30.32% | 11.22% | 58.45% | -0.67 | -3.6 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Portadown | W 1-0 | 35.1 | 1114 | 1004 | 62.11% | 11.13% | 26.76% | +0.87 | +3.4 | 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | @ Carrick Rangers | L 0-1 | 35.1 | 1004 | 1114 | 26.76% | 11.13% | 62.11% | -0.87 | -3.4 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Coleraine | L 1-3 | 35.2 | 1003 | 1232 | 19.66% | 10.83% | 69.51% | -1.32 | -4.1 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | @ Dungannon Swifts | W 3-1 | 35.2 | 1232 | 1003 | 69.51% | 10.83% | 19.66% | +1.32 | +4.1 | 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | Limavady United | W 2-0 | 29.1 | 1207 | 1058 | 66.40% | 10.98% | 22.62% | +1.12 | +5.4 | 3 |
| 2026-08-08 | @ Glentoran | L 0-2 | 29.1 | 1058 | 1207 | 22.62% | 10.98% | 66.40% | -1.12 | -5.4 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Ballymena United | L 0-3 | 39.0 | 1152 | 1027 | 63.80% | 11.08% | 25.12% | +0.96 | -20.5 | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | @ Linfield | W 3-0 | 39.0 | 1027 | 1152 | 25.12% | 11.08% | 63.80% | -0.96 | +20.5 | 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | Cliftonville | L 0-3 | 30.2 | 989 | 1085 | 34.46% | 11.30% | 54.25% | -0.46 | -11.6 | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Bangor | W 3-0 | 30.2 | 1085 | 989 | 54.25% | 11.30% | 34.46% | +0.46 | +11.6 | 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | Larne | D 0-0 | 54.5 | 1236 | 1240 | 47.28% | 11.36% | 41.36% | +0.13 | -0.2 | 4 |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Coleraine | D 0-0 | 54.5 | 1240 | 1236 | 41.36% | 11.36% | 47.28% | -0.13 | +0.2 | 1 |
| 2026-08-15 | Ballymena United | W 2-1 | 48.1 | 999 | 1048 | 40.91% | 11.36% | 47.73% | -0.15 | +5.4 | 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Crusaders | L 1-2 | 48.1 | 1048 | 999 | 47.73% | 11.36% | 40.91% | +0.15 | -5.4 | 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | Carrick Rangers | L 1-2 | 45.5 | 1053 | 1117 | 38.76% | 11.34% | 49.90% | -0.25 | -4.5 | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Limavady United | W 2-1 | 45.5 | 1117 | 1053 | 49.90% | 11.34% | 38.76% | +0.25 | +4.5 | 6 |
| 2026-08-15 | Glentoran | W 2-1 | 49.6 | 1131 | 1212 | 36.48% | 11.32% | 52.20% | -0.36 | +5.8 | 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Linfield | L 1-2 | 49.6 | 1212 | 1131 | 52.20% | 11.32% | 36.48% | +0.36 | -5.8 | 3 |
| 2026-08-15 | Dungannon Swifts | L 0-1 | 41.6 | 1001 | 999 | 48.21% | 11.35% | 40.44% | +0.18 | -5.8 | 0 |
| 2026-08-15 | @ Portadown | W 1-0 | 41.6 | 999 | 1001 | 40.44% | 11.35% | 48.21% | -0.18 | +5.7 | 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | Cliftonville | W 1-0 | 37.8 | 1137 | 1097 | 53.39% | 11.31% | 35.30% | +0.42 | +4.3 | 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | @ Linfield | L 0-1 | 37.8 | 1097 | 1137 | 35.30% | 11.31% | 53.39% | -0.42 | -4.3 | 6 |
| 2026-08-21 | Glentoran | L 0-2 | 30.3 | 1043 | 1206 | 26.24% | 11.11% | 62.65% | -0.90 | -6.2 | 3 |
| 2026-08-21 | @ Ballymena United | W 2-0 | 30.3 | 1206 | 1043 | 62.65% | 11.11% | 26.24% | +0.90 | +6.2 | 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | Coleraine | L 0-2 | 32.2 | 1122 | 1236 | 32.14% | 11.26% | 56.60% | -0.58 | -7.5 | 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | @ Carrick Rangers | W 2-0 | 32.2 | 1236 | 1122 | 56.60% | 11.26% | 32.14% | +0.58 | +7.5 | 7 |
| 2026-08-22 | Portadown | W 3-2 | 51.5 | 1004 | 995 | 49.16% | 11.35% | 39.50% | +0.22 | +4.3 | 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | @ Crusaders | L 2-3 | 51.5 | 995 | 1004 | 39.50% | 11.35% | 49.16% | -0.22 | -4.3 | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Bangor | W 2-0 | 33.5 | 1004 | 978 | 51.59% | 11.33% | 37.08% | +0.33 | +8.6 | 6 |
| 2026-08-22 | @ Dungannon Swifts | L 0-2 | 33.5 | 978 | 1004 | 37.08% | 11.33% | 51.59% | -0.33 | -8.6 | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | Coleraine | L 0-3 | 25.0 | 991 | 1243 | 17.66% | 10.71% | 71.63% | -1.47 | -6.2 | 0 |
| 2026-08-28 | @ Portadown | W 3-0 | 25.0 | 1243 | 991 | 71.63% | 10.71% | 17.66% | +1.47 | +6.2 | 10 |
| 2026-08-29 | Carrick Rangers | L 0-4 | 28.5 | 969 | 1114 | 28.37% | 11.18% | 60.45% | -0.78 | -12.7 | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Bangor | W 4-0 | 28.5 | 1114 | 969 | 60.45% | 11.18% | 28.37% | +0.78 | +12.7 | 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | Dungannon Swifts | L 0-2 | 39.9 | 1093 | 1013 | 58.53% | 11.22% | 30.25% | +0.68 | -13.0 | 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Cliftonville | W 2-0 | 39.9 | 1013 | 1093 | 30.25% | 11.22% | 58.53% | -0.68 | +13.0 | 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | Crusaders | L 1-2 | 55.2 | 1213 | 1009 | 71.73% | 10.70% | 17.56% | +1.48 | -7.9 | 6 |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Glentoran | W 2-1 | 55.2 | 1009 | 1213 | 17.56% | 10.70% | 71.73% | -1.48 | +7.9 | 9 |
| 2026-08-29 | Linfield | L 0-2 | 32.9 | 1049 | 1141 | 34.89% | 11.30% | 53.81% | -0.44 | -8.1 | 0 |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Limavady United | W 2-0 | 32.9 | 1141 | 1049 | 53.81% | 11.30% | 34.89% | +0.44 | +8.1 | 9 |
| 2026-09-04 | Glentoran | W 2-1 | 44.9 | 1240 | 1205 | 52.80% | 11.31% | 35.89% | +0.39 | +4.2 | 4 |
| 2026-09-04 | @ Larne | L 1-2 | 44.9 | 1205 | 1240 | 35.89% | 11.31% | 52.80% | -0.39 | -4.2 | 6 |
| 2026-09-05 | Ballymena United | D 2-2 | 66.3 | 956 | 1036 | 36.61% | 11.32% | 52.07% | -0.36 | +0.3 | 1 |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Bangor | D 2-2 | 66.3 | 1036 | 956 | 52.07% | 11.32% | 36.61% | +0.36 | -0.3 | 4 |
| 2026-09-05 | Portadown | W 3-1 | 37.9 | 1080 | 985 | 60.38% | 11.18% | 28.44% | +0.77 | +5.8 | 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Cliftonville | L 1-3 | 37.9 | 985 | 1080 | 28.44% | 11.18% | 60.38% | -0.77 | -5.8 | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | Crusaders | W 4-1 | 30.1 | 1250 | 1017 | 74.16% | 10.54% | 15.30% | +1.67 | +4.5 | 13 |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Coleraine | L 1-4 | 30.1 | 1017 | 1250 | 15.30% | 10.54% | 74.16% | -1.67 | -4.6 | 9 |
| 2026-09-05 | Dungannon Swifts | L 0-2 | 37.4 | 1040 | 1026 | 49.91% | 11.34% | 38.75% | +0.25 | -11.2 | 0 |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Limavady United | W 2-0 | 37.4 | 1026 | 1040 | 38.75% | 11.34% | 49.91% | -0.25 | +11.2 | 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | Carrick Rangers | W 1-0 | 38.5 | 1150 | 1127 | 51.03% | 11.33% | 37.64% | +0.31 | +4.6 | 12 |
| 2026-09-05 | @ Linfield | L 0-1 | 38.5 | 1127 | 1150 | 37.64% | 11.33% | 51.03% | -0.31 | -4.6 | 9 |
| 2026-09-08 | Bangor | W 1-0 | 30.3 | 1245 | 957 | 78.13% | 10.17% | 11.70% | +2.02 | +1.5 | 7 |
| 2026-09-08 | @ Larne | L 0-1 | 30.3 | 957 | 1245 | 11.70% | 10.17% | 78.13% | -2.02 | -1.5 | 1 |
| 2026-09-11 | Ballymena United | W 3-2 | 44.4 | 1254 | 1036 | 72.96% | 10.62% | 16.42% | +1.57 | +1.9 | 16 |
| 2026-09-11 | @ Coleraine | L 2-3 | 44.4 | 1036 | 1254 | 16.42% | 10.62% | 72.96% | -1.57 | -1.9 | 4 |
| 2026-09-12 | Cliftonville | L 1-3 | 45.3 | 1122 | 1086 | 52.95% | 11.31% | 35.74% | +0.40 | -10.2 | 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Carrick Rangers | W 3-1 | 45.3 | 1086 | 1122 | 35.74% | 11.31% | 52.95% | -0.40 | +10.2 | 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | Limavady United | L 1-2 | 47.5 | 1012 | 1029 | 45.43% | 11.36% | 43.21% | +0.05 | -5.1 | 9 |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Crusaders | W 2-1 | 47.5 | 1029 | 1012 | 43.21% | 11.36% | 45.43% | -0.05 | +5.1 | 3 |
| 2026-09-12 | Linfield | L 0-1 | 36.7 | 1037 | 1154 | 31.78% | 11.25% | 56.97% | -0.60 | -3.9 | 12 |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Dungannon Swifts | W 1-0 | 36.7 | 1154 | 1037 | 56.97% | 11.25% | 31.78% | +0.60 | +4.0 | 15 |
| 2026-09-12 | Bangor | D 1-1 | 59.5 | 1201 | 955 | 75.13% | 10.46% | 14.41% | +1.75 | -1.8 | 7 |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Glentoran | D 1-1 | 59.5 | 955 | 1201 | 14.41% | 10.46% | 75.13% | -1.75 | +1.8 | 2 |
| 2026-09-12 | Larne | L 0-2 | 27.2 | 979 | 1246 | 16.48% | 10.63% | 72.89% | -1.57 | -4.0 | 0 |
| 2026-09-12 | @ Portadown | W 2-0 | 27.2 | 1246 | 979 | 72.89% | 10.63% | 16.48% | +1.57 | +4.0 | 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | Carrick Rangers | D 1-1 | 59.3 | 1034 | 1112 | 36.88% | 11.33% | 51.79% | -0.34 | +0.4 | 5 |
| 2026-09-15 | @ Ballymena United | D 1-1 | 59.3 | 1112 | 1034 | 51.79% | 11.33% | 36.88% | +0.34 | -0.4 | 10 |
| 2026-09-15 | Dungannon Swifts | W 3-0 | 33.2 | 1007 | 1033 | 44.14% | 11.36% | 44.50% | -0.01 | +14.6 | 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | @ Crusaders | L 0-3 | 33.2 | 1033 | 1007 | 44.50% | 11.36% | 44.14% | +0.01 | -14.7 | 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | Coleraine | L 1-2 | 46.1 | 1199 | 1256 | 39.72% | 11.35% | 48.93% | -0.21 | -4.6 | 7 |
| 2026-09-15 | @ Glentoran | W 2-1 | 46.1 | 1256 | 1199 | 48.93% | 11.35% | 39.72% | +0.21 | +4.6 | 19 |
| 2026-09-15 | Cliftonville | W 2-0 | 29.0 | 1250 | 1096 | 67.01% | 10.95% | 22.04% | +1.16 | +5.3 | 13 |
| 2026-09-15 | @ Larne | L 0-2 | 29.0 | 1096 | 1250 | 22.04% | 10.95% | 67.01% | -1.16 | -5.3 | 12 |
| 2026-09-15 | Bangor | W 3-1 | 38.5 | 1034 | 957 | 58.25% | 11.23% | 30.52% | +0.66 | +6.2 | 6 |
| 2026-09-15 | @ Limavady United | L 1-3 | 38.5 | 957 | 1034 | 30.52% | 11.23% | 58.25% | -0.66 | -6.2 | 2 |
| 2026-09-15 | Linfield | D 1-1 | 59.3 | 975 | 1158 | 24.16% | 11.04% | 64.80% | -1.02 | +1.2 | 1 |
| 2026-09-15 | @ Portadown | D 1-1 | 59.3 | 1158 | 975 | 64.80% | 11.04% | 24.16% | +1.02 | -1.2 | 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | Portadown | W 3-1 | 42.7 | 951 | 976 | 44.23% | 11.36% | 44.41% | +0.00 | +8.7 | 5 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Bangor | L 1-3 | 42.7 | 976 | 951 | 44.41% | 11.36% | 44.23% | +0.00 | -8.7 | 1 |
| 2026-09-19 | Larne | L 2-5 | 36.6 | 1112 | 1255 | 28.55% | 11.18% | 60.27% | -0.77 | -7.2 | 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Carrick Rangers | W 5-2 | 36.6 | 1255 | 1112 | 60.27% | 11.18% | 28.55% | +0.77 | +7.2 | 16 |
| 2026-09-19 | Glentoran | L 1-2 | 43.9 | 1090 | 1194 | 33.47% | 11.28% | 55.24% | -0.51 | -3.9 | 12 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Cliftonville | W 2-1 | 43.9 | 1194 | 1090 | 55.24% | 11.28% | 33.47% | +0.51 | +3.9 | 10 |
| 2026-09-19 | Limavady United | W 1-0 | 31.9 | 1261 | 1041 | 73.11% | 10.61% | 16.28% | +1.58 | +2.1 | 22 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Coleraine | L 0-1 | 31.9 | 1041 | 1261 | 16.28% | 10.61% | 73.11% | -1.58 | -2.1 | 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | Ballymena United | D 1-1 | 59.2 | 1018 | 1035 | 45.59% | 11.36% | 43.05% | +0.06 | -0.1 | 13 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Dungannon Swifts | D 1-1 | 59.2 | 1035 | 1018 | 43.05% | 11.36% | 45.59% | -0.06 | +0.1 | 6 |
| 2026-09-19 | Crusaders | W 1-0 | 34.2 | 1157 | 1022 | 65.00% | 11.03% | 23.96% | +1.04 | +3.0 | 19 |
| 2026-09-19 | @ Linfield | L 0-1 | 34.2 | 1022 | 1157 | 23.96% | 11.03% | 65.00% | -1.04 | -3.0 | 12 |
| 2026-09-25 | Linfield | L 1-3 | 48.0 | 1263 | 1160 | 61.32% | 11.15% | 27.53% | +0.82 | -11.8 | 22 |
| 2026-09-25 | @ Coleraine | W 3-1 | 48.0 | 1160 | 1263 | 27.53% | 11.15% | 61.32% | -0.82 | +11.8 | 22 |
| 2026-09-26 | Portadown | W 2-0 | 31.9 | 1035 | 967 | 56.94% | 11.25% | 31.81% | +0.59 | +7.5 | 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | @ Ballymena United | L 0-2 | 31.9 | 967 | 1035 | 31.81% | 11.25% | 56.94% | -0.59 | -7.5 | 1 |
| 2026-09-26 | Bangor | W 2-1 | 43.6 | 1019 | 959 | 55.92% | 11.27% | 32.81% | +0.54 | +3.8 | 15 |
| 2026-09-26 | @ Crusaders | L 1-2 | 43.6 | 959 | 1019 | 32.81% | 11.27% | 55.92% | -0.54 | -3.8 | 5 |
| 2026-09-26 | Carrick Rangers | W 2-0 | 31.0 | 1198 | 1105 | 60.23% | 11.18% | 28.59% | +0.77 | +6.8 | 13 |
| 2026-09-26 | @ Glentoran | L 0-2 | 31.0 | 1105 | 1198 | 28.59% | 11.18% | 60.23% | -0.77 | -6.8 | 10 |
| 2026-09-26 | Cliftonville | W 1-0 | 41.4 | 1039 | 1087 | 41.02% | 11.36% | 47.63% | -0.15 | +5.7 | 9 |
| 2026-09-26 | @ Limavady United | L 0-1 | 41.4 | 1087 | 1039 | 47.63% | 11.36% | 41.02% | +0.15 | -5.7 | 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | Crusaders | W 4-0 | 29.2 | 1098 | 1022 | 57.97% | 11.23% | 30.80% | +0.65 | +13.7 | 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | @ Carrick Rangers | L 0-4 | 29.2 | 1022 | 1098 | 30.80% | 11.23% | 57.97% | -0.65 | -13.7 | 15 |
| 2026-10-03 | Ballymena United | L 0-1 | 43.1 | 1081 | 1042 | 53.23% | 11.31% | 35.46% | +0.41 | -6.3 | 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | @ Cliftonville | W 1-0 | 43.1 | 1042 | 1081 | 35.46% | 11.31% | 53.23% | -0.41 | +6.3 | 12 |
| 2026-10-03 | Dungannon Swifts | W 2-0 | 28.0 | 1205 | 1018 | 70.16% | 10.80% | 19.05% | +1.37 | +4.6 | 16 |
| 2026-10-03 | @ Glentoran | L 0-2 | 28.0 | 1018 | 1205 | 19.05% | 10.80% | 70.16% | -1.37 | -4.6 | 13 |
| 2026-10-03 | Limavady United | W 3-1 | 45.2 | 960 | 1044 | 36.04% | 11.32% | 52.64% | -0.38 | +10.2 | 4 |
| 2026-10-03 | @ Portadown | L 1-3 | 45.2 | 1044 | 960 | 52.64% | 11.32% | 36.04% | +0.38 | -10.2 | 9 |
| 2026-10-04 | Coleraine | L 2-3 | 43.7 | 956 | 1251 | 14.40% | 10.46% | 75.15% | -1.75 | -1.7 | 5 |
| 2026-10-04 | @ Bangor | W 3-2 | 43.7 | 1251 | 956 | 75.15% | 10.46% | 14.40% | +1.75 | +1.7 | 25 |
Upcoming Games
Remaining games on the team's schedule
| Date | Opponent | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Proj. Margin | Excitement |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Limavady United | 1240 | 1049 | 70.65% | 10.77% | 18.58% | +1.40 | 32.8 |
| 2026-08-22 | @ Larne | 1049 | 1240 | 18.58% | 10.77% | 70.65% | -1.40 | 32.8 |
| 2026-08-29 | Larne | 1036 | 1240 | 22.03% | 10.95% | 67.02% | -1.16 | 37.2 |
| 2026-08-29 | @ Ballymena United | 1240 | 1036 | 67.02% | 10.95% | 22.03% | +1.16 | 37.2 |
| 2026-09-26 | Dungannon Swifts | 1263 | 1018 | 75.03% | 10.47% | 14.51% | +1.74 | 29.1 |
| 2026-09-26 | @ Larne | 1018 | 1263 | 14.51% | 10.47% | 75.03% | -1.74 | 29.1 |
| 2026-10-10 | Cliftonville | 1253 | 1075 | 69.36% | 10.84% | 19.80% | +1.31 | 38.2 |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Coleraine | 1075 | 1253 | 19.80% | 10.84% | 69.36% | -1.31 | 38.2 |
| 2026-10-10 | Larne | 1009 | 1263 | 17.55% | 10.70% | 71.74% | -1.48 | 33.3 |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Crusaders | 1263 | 1009 | 71.74% | 10.70% | 17.55% | +1.48 | 33.3 |
| 2026-10-10 | Carrick Rangers | 1014 | 1111 | 34.27% | 11.29% | 54.44% | -0.47 | 41.3 |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1111 | 1014 | 54.44% | 11.29% | 34.27% | +0.47 | 41.3 |
| 2026-10-10 | Ballymena United | 1034 | 1048 | 45.84% | 11.36% | 42.80% | +0.07 | 47.6 |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Limavady United | 1048 | 1034 | 42.80% | 11.36% | 45.84% | -0.07 | 47.6 |
| 2026-10-10 | Bangor | 1172 | 954 | 72.92% | 10.63% | 16.45% | +1.57 | 25.6 |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Linfield | 954 | 1172 | 16.45% | 10.63% | 72.92% | -1.57 | 25.6 |
| 2026-10-10 | Glentoran | 970 | 1210 | 18.77% | 10.78% | 70.45% | -1.39 | 25.0 |
| 2026-10-10 | @ Portadown | 1210 | 970 | 70.45% | 10.78% | 18.77% | +1.39 | 25.0 |
| 2026-10-17 | Crusaders | 1048 | 1009 | 53.32% | 11.31% | 35.37% | +0.42 | 50.4 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Ballymena United | 1009 | 1048 | 35.37% | 11.31% | 53.32% | -0.42 | 50.4 |
| 2026-10-17 | Dungannon Swifts | 954 | 1014 | 39.36% | 11.35% | 49.30% | -0.23 | 41.6 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Bangor | 1014 | 954 | 49.30% | 11.35% | 39.36% | +0.23 | 41.6 |
| 2026-10-17 | Linfield | 1111 | 1172 | 39.31% | 11.35% | 49.35% | -0.23 | 48.1 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1172 | 1111 | 49.35% | 11.35% | 39.31% | +0.23 | 48.1 |
| 2026-10-17 | Portadown | 1075 | 970 | 61.51% | 11.15% | 27.34% | +0.84 | 35.8 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Cliftonville | 970 | 1075 | 27.34% | 11.15% | 61.51% | -0.84 | 35.8 |
| 2026-10-17 | Limavady United | 1210 | 1034 | 69.11% | 10.85% | 20.03% | +1.29 | 30.3 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Glentoran | 1034 | 1210 | 20.03% | 10.85% | 69.11% | -1.29 | 30.3 |
| 2026-10-17 | Coleraine | 1263 | 1253 | 49.25% | 11.35% | 39.40% | +0.22 | 60.1 |
| 2026-10-17 | @ Larne | 1253 | 1263 | 39.40% | 11.35% | 49.25% | -0.22 | 60.1 |
| 2026-10-20 | Linfield | 1263 | 1172 | 59.88% | 11.19% | 28.93% | +0.75 | 48.1 |
| 2026-10-20 | @ Larne | 1172 | 1263 | 28.93% | 11.19% | 59.88% | -0.75 | 48.1 |
| 2026-10-24 | Larne | 954 | 1263 | 13.50% | 10.37% | 76.13% | -1.83 | 26.3 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Bangor | 1263 | 954 | 76.13% | 10.37% | 13.50% | +1.83 | 26.3 |
| 2026-10-24 | Limavady United | 1111 | 1034 | 58.24% | 11.23% | 30.54% | +0.66 | 41.7 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1034 | 1111 | 30.54% | 11.23% | 58.24% | -0.66 | 41.7 |
| 2026-10-24 | Coleraine | 1009 | 1253 | 18.38% | 10.76% | 70.86% | -1.42 | 35.1 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Crusaders | 1253 | 1009 | 70.86% | 10.76% | 18.38% | +1.42 | 35.1 |
| 2026-10-24 | Cliftonville | 1014 | 1075 | 39.24% | 11.35% | 49.42% | -0.23 | 42.8 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1075 | 1014 | 49.42% | 11.35% | 39.24% | +0.23 | 42.8 |
| 2026-10-24 | Ballymena United | 1210 | 1048 | 67.71% | 10.92% | 21.37% | +1.20 | 36.6 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Glentoran | 1048 | 1210 | 21.37% | 10.92% | 67.71% | -1.20 | 36.6 |
| 2026-10-24 | Linfield | 970 | 1172 | 22.28% | 10.96% | 66.76% | -1.14 | 27.1 |
| 2026-10-24 | @ Portadown | 1172 | 970 | 66.76% | 10.96% | 22.28% | +1.14 | 27.1 |
| 2026-10-31 | Bangor | 1048 | 954 | 60.32% | 11.18% | 28.50% | +0.77 | 40.2 |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Ballymena United | 954 | 1048 | 28.50% | 11.18% | 60.32% | -0.77 | 40.2 |
| 2026-10-31 | Carrick Rangers | 1075 | 1111 | 42.60% | 11.36% | 46.04% | -0.08 | 49.0 |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Cliftonville | 1111 | 1075 | 46.04% | 11.36% | 42.60% | +0.08 | 49.0 |
| 2026-10-31 | Glentoran | 1253 | 1210 | 53.80% | 11.30% | 34.90% | +0.44 | 55.4 |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Coleraine | 1210 | 1253 | 34.90% | 11.30% | 53.80% | -0.44 | 55.4 |
| 2026-10-31 | Portadown | 1263 | 970 | 78.41% | 10.14% | 11.45% | +2.05 | 24.2 |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Larne | 970 | 1263 | 11.45% | 10.14% | 78.41% | -2.05 | 24.2 |
| 2026-10-31 | Crusaders | 1034 | 1009 | 51.39% | 11.33% | 37.28% | +0.32 | 46.9 |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Limavady United | 1009 | 1034 | 37.28% | 11.33% | 51.39% | -0.32 | 46.9 |
| 2026-10-31 | Dungannon Swifts | 1172 | 1014 | 67.38% | 10.94% | 21.68% | +1.18 | 31.8 |
| 2026-10-31 | @ Linfield | 1014 | 1172 | 21.68% | 10.94% | 67.38% | -1.18 | 31.8 |
| 2026-11-07 | Crusaders | 954 | 1009 | 40.06% | 11.35% | 48.58% | -0.19 | 45.7 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Bangor | 1009 | 954 | 48.58% | 11.35% | 40.06% | +0.19 | 45.7 |
| 2026-11-07 | Glentoran | 1111 | 1210 | 34.22% | 11.29% | 54.48% | -0.47 | 45.6 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1210 | 1111 | 54.48% | 11.29% | 34.22% | +0.47 | 45.6 |
| 2026-11-07 | Larne | 1075 | 1263 | 23.66% | 11.02% | 65.32% | -1.05 | 37.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Cliftonville | 1263 | 1075 | 65.32% | 11.02% | 23.66% | +1.05 | 37.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | Limavady United | 1014 | 1034 | 44.99% | 11.36% | 43.65% | +0.03 | 44.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1034 | 1014 | 43.65% | 11.36% | 44.99% | -0.03 | 44.2 |
| 2026-11-07 | Coleraine | 1172 | 1253 | 36.49% | 11.32% | 52.19% | -0.36 | 51.3 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Linfield | 1253 | 1172 | 52.19% | 11.32% | 36.49% | +0.36 | 51.3 |
| 2026-11-07 | Ballymena United | 970 | 1048 | 36.86% | 11.33% | 51.82% | -0.34 | 41.4 |
| 2026-11-07 | @ Portadown | 1048 | 970 | 51.82% | 11.33% | 36.86% | +0.34 | 41.4 |
| 2026-11-13 | Linfield | 1048 | 1172 | 30.99% | 11.24% | 57.77% | -0.64 | 40.8 |
| 2026-11-13 | @ Ballymena United | 1172 | 1048 | 57.77% | 11.24% | 30.99% | +0.64 | 40.8 |
| 2026-11-13 | Portadown | 1253 | 970 | 77.77% | 10.21% | 12.02% | +1.99 | 26.4 |
| 2026-11-13 | @ Coleraine | 970 | 1253 | 12.02% | 10.21% | 77.77% | -1.99 | 26.4 |
| 2026-11-13 | Carrick Rangers | 1009 | 1111 | 33.61% | 11.28% | 55.11% | -0.50 | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-13 | @ Crusaders | 1111 | 1009 | 55.11% | 11.28% | 33.61% | +0.50 | 45.0 |
| 2026-11-13 | Bangor | 1210 | 954 | 75.89% | 10.39% | 13.72% | +1.81 | 23.9 |
| 2026-11-13 | @ Glentoran | 954 | 1210 | 13.72% | 10.39% | 75.89% | -1.81 | 23.9 |
| 2026-11-13 | Dungannon Swifts | 1263 | 1014 | 75.37% | 10.44% | 14.19% | +1.77 | 28.7 |
| 2026-11-13 | @ Larne | 1014 | 1263 | 14.19% | 10.44% | 75.37% | -1.77 | 28.7 |
| 2026-11-13 | Cliftonville | 1034 | 1075 | 42.08% | 11.36% | 46.57% | -0.10 | 43.9 |
| 2026-11-13 | @ Limavady United | 1075 | 1034 | 46.57% | 11.36% | 42.08% | +0.10 | 43.9 |
| 2026-11-21 | Coleraine | 1111 | 1253 | 28.85% | 11.19% | 59.96% | -0.75 | 45.3 |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1253 | 1111 | 59.96% | 11.19% | 28.85% | +0.75 | 45.3 |
| 2026-11-21 | Glentoran | 1075 | 1210 | 29.60% | 11.21% | 59.20% | -0.71 | 38.8 |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Cliftonville | 1210 | 1075 | 59.20% | 11.21% | 29.60% | +0.71 | 38.8 |
| 2026-11-21 | Crusaders | 1014 | 1009 | 48.58% | 11.35% | 40.07% | +0.19 | 49.4 |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1009 | 1014 | 40.07% | 11.35% | 48.58% | -0.19 | 49.4 |
| 2026-11-21 | Ballymena United | 1263 | 1048 | 72.62% | 10.65% | 16.74% | +1.55 | 34.8 |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Larne | 1048 | 1263 | 16.74% | 10.65% | 72.62% | -1.55 | 34.8 |
| 2026-11-21 | Limavady United | 1172 | 1034 | 65.26% | 11.02% | 23.71% | +1.05 | 33.3 |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Linfield | 1034 | 1172 | 23.71% | 11.02% | 65.26% | -1.05 | 33.3 |
| 2026-11-21 | Bangor | 970 | 954 | 50.14% | 11.34% | 38.52% | +0.27 | 43.9 |
| 2026-11-21 | @ Portadown | 954 | 970 | 38.52% | 11.34% | 50.14% | -0.27 | 43.9 |
| 2026-11-28 | Cliftonville | 1048 | 1075 | 44.11% | 11.36% | 44.52% | -0.01 | 49.3 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Ballymena United | 1075 | 1048 | 44.52% | 11.36% | 44.11% | +0.01 | 49.3 |
| 2026-11-28 | Bangor | 1111 | 954 | 67.34% | 10.94% | 21.72% | +1.18 | 33.1 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Carrick Rangers | 954 | 1111 | 21.72% | 10.94% | 67.34% | -1.18 | 33.1 |
| 2026-11-28 | Dungannon Swifts | 1253 | 1014 | 74.62% | 10.50% | 14.88% | +1.70 | 31.0 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Coleraine | 1014 | 1253 | 14.88% | 10.50% | 74.62% | -1.70 | 31.0 |
| 2026-11-28 | Linfield | 1009 | 1172 | 26.34% | 11.12% | 62.54% | -0.89 | 36.7 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Crusaders | 1172 | 1009 | 62.54% | 11.12% | 26.34% | +0.89 | 36.7 |
| 2026-11-28 | Larne | 1210 | 1263 | 40.32% | 11.35% | 48.33% | -0.18 | 54.0 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Glentoran | 1263 | 1210 | 48.33% | 11.35% | 40.32% | +0.18 | 54.0 |
| 2026-11-28 | Portadown | 1034 | 970 | 56.52% | 11.26% | 32.22% | +0.57 | 38.9 |
| 2026-11-28 | @ Limavady United | 970 | 1034 | 32.22% | 11.26% | 56.52% | -0.57 | 38.9 |
| 2026-12-05 | Ballymena United | 1111 | 1048 | 56.43% | 11.26% | 32.31% | +0.57 | 48.0 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1048 | 1111 | 32.31% | 11.26% | 56.43% | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| 2026-12-05 | Bangor | 1075 | 954 | 63.39% | 11.09% | 25.52% | +0.94 | 35.2 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Cliftonville | 954 | 1075 | 25.52% | 11.09% | 63.39% | -0.94 | 35.2 |
| 2026-12-05 | Glentoran | 1014 | 1210 | 22.87% | 10.99% | 66.14% | -1.10 | 30.5 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1210 | 1014 | 66.14% | 10.99% | 22.87% | +1.10 | 30.5 |
| 2026-12-05 | Coleraine | 1034 | 1253 | 20.64% | 10.89% | 68.47% | -1.25 | 33.3 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Limavady United | 1253 | 1034 | 68.47% | 10.89% | 20.64% | +1.25 | 33.3 |
| 2026-12-05 | Larne | 1172 | 1263 | 35.17% | 11.31% | 53.52% | -0.43 | 49.1 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Linfield | 1263 | 1172 | 53.52% | 11.31% | 35.17% | +0.43 | 49.1 |
| 2026-12-05 | Crusaders | 970 | 1009 | 42.36% | 11.36% | 46.28% | -0.09 | 45.5 |
| 2026-12-05 | @ Portadown | 1009 | 970 | 46.28% | 11.36% | 42.36% | +0.09 | 45.5 |
| 2026-12-12 | Limavady United | 1048 | 1034 | 49.86% | 11.34% | 38.79% | +0.25 | 47.4 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Ballymena United | 1034 | 1048 | 38.79% | 11.34% | 49.86% | -0.25 | 47.4 |
| 2026-12-12 | Linfield | 954 | 1172 | 20.71% | 10.89% | 68.40% | -1.25 | 27.0 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Bangor | 1172 | 954 | 68.40% | 10.89% | 20.71% | +1.25 | 27.0 |
| 2026-12-12 | Dungannon Swifts | 1111 | 1014 | 60.71% | 11.17% | 28.12% | +0.79 | 40.3 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1014 | 1111 | 28.12% | 11.17% | 60.71% | -0.79 | 40.3 |
| 2026-12-12 | Coleraine | 1075 | 1253 | 24.70% | 11.06% | 64.24% | -0.99 | 39.5 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Cliftonville | 1253 | 1075 | 64.24% | 11.06% | 24.70% | +0.99 | 39.5 |
| 2026-12-12 | Portadown | 1210 | 970 | 74.66% | 10.50% | 14.84% | +1.71 | 23.6 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Glentoran | 970 | 1210 | 14.84% | 10.50% | 74.66% | -1.71 | 23.6 |
| 2026-12-12 | Crusaders | 1263 | 1009 | 75.75% | 10.40% | 13.84% | +1.80 | 31.9 |
| 2026-12-12 | @ Larne | 1009 | 1263 | 13.84% | 10.40% | 75.75% | -1.80 | 31.9 |
| 2026-12-19 | Bangor | 1253 | 954 | 78.81% | 10.10% | 11.09% | +2.09 | 27.1 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ Coleraine | 954 | 1253 | 11.09% | 10.10% | 78.81% | -2.09 | 27.1 |
| 2026-12-19 | Glentoran | 1009 | 1210 | 22.36% | 10.97% | 66.67% | -1.14 | 34.2 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ Crusaders | 1210 | 1009 | 66.67% | 10.97% | 22.36% | +1.14 | 34.2 |
| 2026-12-19 | Ballymena United | 1014 | 1048 | 42.94% | 11.36% | 45.70% | -0.06 | 47.0 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1048 | 1014 | 45.70% | 11.36% | 42.94% | +0.06 | 47.0 |
| 2026-12-19 | Larne | 1034 | 1263 | 19.74% | 10.84% | 69.43% | -1.32 | 30.9 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ Limavady United | 1263 | 1034 | 69.43% | 10.84% | 19.74% | +1.32 | 30.9 |
| 2026-12-19 | Cliftonville | 1172 | 1075 | 60.65% | 11.17% | 28.18% | +0.79 | 40.7 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ Linfield | 1075 | 1172 | 28.18% | 11.17% | 60.65% | -0.79 | 40.7 |
| 2026-12-19 | Carrick Rangers | 970 | 1111 | 28.83% | 11.19% | 59.98% | -0.75 | 34.7 |
| 2026-12-19 | @ Portadown | 1111 | 970 | 59.98% | 11.19% | 28.83% | +0.75 | 34.7 |
| 2026-12-26 | Limavady United | 954 | 1034 | 36.59% | 11.32% | 52.09% | -0.36 | 38.9 |
| 2026-12-26 | @ Bangor | 1034 | 954 | 52.09% | 11.32% | 36.59% | +0.36 | 38.9 |
| 2026-12-26 | Ballymena United | 1253 | 1048 | 71.77% | 10.70% | 17.53% | +1.48 | 36.8 |
| 2026-12-26 | @ Coleraine | 1048 | 1253 | 17.53% | 10.70% | 71.77% | -1.48 | 36.8 |
| 2026-12-26 | Cliftonville | 1009 | 1075 | 38.54% | 11.34% | 50.12% | -0.26 | 46.3 |
| 2026-12-26 | @ Crusaders | 1075 | 1009 | 50.12% | 11.34% | 38.54% | +0.26 | 46.3 |
| 2026-12-26 | Portadown | 1014 | 970 | 53.87% | 11.30% | 34.83% | +0.44 | 41.5 |
| 2026-12-26 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 970 | 1014 | 34.83% | 11.30% | 53.87% | -0.44 | 41.5 |
| 2026-12-26 | Linfield | 1210 | 1172 | 53.08% | 11.31% | 35.61% | +0.40 | 49.8 |
| 2026-12-26 | @ Glentoran | 1172 | 1210 | 35.61% | 11.31% | 53.08% | -0.40 | 49.8 |
| 2026-12-26 | Carrick Rangers | 1263 | 1111 | 66.67% | 10.97% | 22.36% | +1.14 | 41.8 |
| 2026-12-26 | @ Larne | 1111 | 1263 | 22.36% | 10.97% | 66.67% | -1.14 | 41.8 |
| 2026-12-29 | Bangor | 1048 | 954 | 60.32% | 11.18% | 28.50% | +0.77 | 40.2 |
| 2026-12-29 | @ Ballymena United | 954 | 1048 | 28.50% | 11.18% | 60.32% | -0.77 | 40.2 |
| 2026-12-29 | Glentoran | 1111 | 1210 | 34.22% | 11.29% | 54.48% | -0.47 | 45.6 |
| 2026-12-29 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1210 | 1111 | 54.48% | 11.29% | 34.22% | +0.47 | 45.6 |
| 2026-12-29 | Dungannon Swifts | 1075 | 1014 | 56.12% | 11.27% | 32.62% | +0.55 | 42.1 |
| 2026-12-29 | @ Cliftonville | 1014 | 1075 | 32.62% | 11.27% | 56.12% | -0.55 | 42.1 |
| 2026-12-29 | Crusaders | 1034 | 1009 | 51.39% | 11.33% | 37.28% | +0.32 | 46.9 |
| 2026-12-29 | @ Limavady United | 1009 | 1034 | 37.28% | 11.33% | 51.39% | -0.32 | 46.9 |
| 2026-12-29 | Coleraine | 1172 | 1253 | 36.49% | 11.32% | 52.19% | -0.36 | 51.3 |
| 2026-12-29 | @ Linfield | 1253 | 1172 | 52.19% | 11.32% | 36.49% | +0.36 | 51.3 |
| 2026-12-29 | Larne | 970 | 1263 | 14.61% | 10.48% | 74.91% | -1.73 | 25.5 |
| 2026-12-29 | @ Portadown | 1263 | 970 | 74.91% | 10.48% | 14.61% | +1.73 | 25.5 |
| 2027-01-02 | Portadown | 954 | 970 | 45.55% | 11.36% | 43.08% | +0.06 | 44.1 |
| 2027-01-02 | @ Bangor | 970 | 954 | 43.08% | 11.36% | 45.55% | -0.06 | 44.1 |
| 2027-01-02 | Carrick Rangers | 1253 | 1111 | 65.63% | 11.01% | 23.36% | +1.07 | 44.0 |
| 2027-01-02 | @ Coleraine | 1111 | 1253 | 23.36% | 11.01% | 65.63% | -1.07 | 44.0 |
| 2027-01-02 | Linfield | 1009 | 1172 | 26.34% | 11.12% | 62.54% | -0.89 | 36.7 |
| 2027-01-02 | @ Crusaders | 1172 | 1009 | 62.54% | 11.12% | 26.34% | +0.89 | 36.7 |
| 2027-01-02 | Limavady United | 1014 | 1034 | 44.99% | 11.36% | 43.65% | +0.03 | 44.2 |
| 2027-01-02 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1034 | 1014 | 43.65% | 11.36% | 44.99% | -0.03 | 44.2 |
| 2027-01-02 | Cliftonville | 1210 | 1075 | 64.96% | 11.04% | 24.01% | +1.03 | 37.6 |
| 2027-01-02 | @ Glentoran | 1075 | 1210 | 24.01% | 11.04% | 64.96% | -1.03 | 37.6 |
| 2027-01-02 | Ballymena United | 1263 | 1048 | 72.62% | 10.65% | 16.74% | +1.55 | 34.8 |
| 2027-01-02 | @ Larne | 1048 | 1263 | 16.74% | 10.65% | 72.62% | -1.55 | 34.8 |
| 2027-01-16 | Cliftonville | 1048 | 1075 | 44.11% | 11.36% | 44.52% | -0.01 | 49.3 |
| 2027-01-16 | @ Ballymena United | 1075 | 1048 | 44.52% | 11.36% | 44.11% | +0.01 | 49.3 |
| 2027-01-16 | Bangor | 1111 | 954 | 67.34% | 10.94% | 21.72% | +1.18 | 33.1 |
| 2027-01-16 | @ Carrick Rangers | 954 | 1111 | 21.72% | 10.94% | 67.34% | -1.18 | 33.1 |
| 2027-01-16 | Portadown | 1009 | 970 | 53.19% | 11.31% | 35.50% | +0.41 | 45.0 |
| 2027-01-16 | @ Crusaders | 970 | 1009 | 35.50% | 11.31% | 53.19% | -0.41 | 45.0 |
| 2027-01-16 | Coleraine | 1014 | 1253 | 18.82% | 10.78% | 70.40% | -1.38 | 32.5 |
| 2027-01-16 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1253 | 1014 | 70.40% | 10.78% | 18.82% | +1.38 | 32.5 |
| 2027-01-16 | Larne | 1210 | 1263 | 40.32% | 11.35% | 48.33% | -0.18 | 54.0 |
| 2027-01-16 | @ Glentoran | 1263 | 1210 | 48.33% | 11.35% | 40.32% | +0.18 | 54.0 |
| 2027-01-16 | Linfield | 1034 | 1172 | 29.26% | 11.20% | 59.54% | -0.73 | 34.6 |
| 2027-01-16 | @ Limavady United | 1172 | 1034 | 59.54% | 11.20% | 29.26% | +0.73 | 34.6 |
| 2027-01-23 | Linfield | 1048 | 1172 | 30.99% | 11.24% | 57.77% | -0.64 | 40.8 |
| 2027-01-23 | @ Ballymena United | 1172 | 1048 | 57.77% | 11.24% | 30.99% | +0.64 | 40.8 |
| 2027-01-23 | Dungannon Swifts | 954 | 1014 | 39.36% | 11.35% | 49.30% | -0.23 | 41.6 |
| 2027-01-23 | @ Bangor | 1014 | 954 | 49.30% | 11.35% | 39.36% | +0.23 | 41.6 |
| 2027-01-23 | Carrick Rangers | 1075 | 1111 | 42.60% | 11.36% | 46.04% | -0.08 | 49.0 |
| 2027-01-23 | @ Cliftonville | 1111 | 1075 | 46.04% | 11.36% | 42.60% | +0.08 | 49.0 |
| 2027-01-23 | Glentoran | 1253 | 1210 | 53.80% | 11.30% | 34.90% | +0.44 | 55.4 |
| 2027-01-23 | @ Coleraine | 1210 | 1253 | 34.90% | 11.30% | 53.80% | -0.44 | 55.4 |
| 2027-01-23 | Crusaders | 1263 | 1009 | 75.75% | 10.40% | 13.84% | +1.80 | 31.9 |
| 2027-01-23 | @ Larne | 1009 | 1263 | 13.84% | 10.40% | 75.75% | -1.80 | 31.9 |
| 2027-01-23 | Limavady United | 970 | 1034 | 38.81% | 11.34% | 49.85% | -0.25 | 39.6 |
| 2027-01-23 | @ Portadown | 1034 | 970 | 49.85% | 11.34% | 38.81% | +0.25 | 39.6 |
| 2027-01-30 | Ballymena United | 1009 | 1048 | 42.21% | 11.36% | 46.43% | -0.10 | 50.8 |
| 2027-01-30 | @ Crusaders | 1048 | 1009 | 46.43% | 11.36% | 42.21% | +0.10 | 50.8 |
| 2027-01-30 | Carrick Rangers | 1014 | 1111 | 34.27% | 11.29% | 54.44% | -0.47 | 41.3 |
| 2027-01-30 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1111 | 1014 | 54.44% | 11.29% | 34.27% | +0.47 | 41.3 |
| 2027-01-30 | Cliftonville | 1263 | 1075 | 70.29% | 10.79% | 18.92% | +1.38 | 35.8 |
| 2027-01-30 | @ Larne | 1075 | 1263 | 18.92% | 10.79% | 70.29% | -1.38 | 35.8 |
| 2027-01-30 | Coleraine | 1034 | 1253 | 20.64% | 10.89% | 68.47% | -1.25 | 33.3 |
| 2027-01-30 | @ Limavady United | 1253 | 1034 | 68.47% | 10.89% | 20.64% | +1.25 | 33.3 |
| 2027-01-30 | Bangor | 1172 | 954 | 72.92% | 10.63% | 16.45% | +1.57 | 25.6 |
| 2027-01-30 | @ Linfield | 954 | 1172 | 16.45% | 10.63% | 72.92% | -1.57 | 25.6 |
| 2027-01-30 | Glentoran | 970 | 1210 | 18.77% | 10.78% | 70.45% | -1.39 | 25.0 |
| 2027-01-30 | @ Portadown | 1210 | 970 | 70.45% | 10.78% | 18.77% | +1.39 | 25.0 |
| 2027-02-06 | Portadown | 1048 | 970 | 58.33% | 11.22% | 30.45% | +0.67 | 40.5 |
| 2027-02-06 | @ Ballymena United | 970 | 1048 | 30.45% | 11.22% | 58.33% | -0.67 | 40.5 |
| 2027-02-06 | Limavady United | 954 | 1034 | 36.59% | 11.32% | 52.09% | -0.36 | 38.9 |
| 2027-02-06 | @ Bangor | 1034 | 954 | 52.09% | 11.32% | 36.59% | +0.36 | 38.9 |
| 2027-02-06 | Larne | 1111 | 1263 | 27.70% | 11.16% | 61.14% | -0.82 | 43.1 |
| 2027-02-06 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1263 | 1111 | 61.14% | 11.16% | 27.70% | +0.82 | 43.1 |
| 2027-02-06 | Linfield | 1075 | 1172 | 34.33% | 11.29% | 54.37% | -0.47 | 41.7 |
| 2027-02-06 | @ Cliftonville | 1172 | 1075 | 54.37% | 11.29% | 34.33% | +0.47 | 41.7 |
| 2027-02-06 | Crusaders | 1253 | 1009 | 75.01% | 10.47% | 14.52% | +1.74 | 33.6 |
| 2027-02-06 | @ Coleraine | 1009 | 1253 | 14.52% | 10.47% | 75.01% | -1.74 | 33.6 |
| 2027-02-06 | Dungannon Swifts | 1210 | 1014 | 71.00% | 10.75% | 18.25% | +1.43 | 29.1 |
| 2027-02-06 | @ Glentoran | 1014 | 1210 | 18.25% | 10.75% | 71.00% | -1.43 | 29.1 |
| 2027-02-20 | Coleraine | 1048 | 1253 | 22.01% | 10.95% | 67.04% | -1.16 | 38.2 |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Ballymena United | 1253 | 1048 | 67.04% | 10.95% | 22.01% | +1.16 | 38.2 |
| 2027-02-20 | Larne | 954 | 1263 | 13.50% | 10.37% | 76.13% | -1.83 | 26.3 |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Bangor | 1263 | 954 | 76.13% | 10.37% | 13.50% | +1.83 | 26.3 |
| 2027-02-20 | Cliftonville | 1009 | 1075 | 38.54% | 11.34% | 50.12% | -0.26 | 46.3 |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Crusaders | 1075 | 1009 | 50.12% | 11.34% | 38.54% | +0.26 | 46.3 |
| 2027-02-20 | Glentoran | 1034 | 1210 | 24.98% | 11.07% | 63.95% | -0.97 | 31.7 |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Limavady United | 1210 | 1034 | 63.95% | 11.07% | 24.98% | +0.97 | 31.7 |
| 2027-02-20 | Carrick Rangers | 1172 | 1111 | 56.05% | 11.27% | 32.68% | +0.55 | 47.4 |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Linfield | 1111 | 1172 | 32.68% | 11.27% | 56.05% | -0.55 | 47.4 |
| 2027-02-20 | Dungannon Swifts | 970 | 1014 | 41.63% | 11.36% | 47.01% | -0.12 | 42.0 |
| 2027-02-20 | @ Portadown | 1014 | 970 | 47.01% | 11.36% | 41.63% | +0.12 | 42.0 |
| 2027-02-27 | Ballymena United | 1111 | 1048 | 56.43% | 11.26% | 32.31% | +0.57 | 48.0 |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1048 | 1111 | 32.31% | 11.26% | 56.43% | -0.57 | 48.0 |
| 2027-02-27 | Bangor | 1075 | 954 | 63.39% | 11.09% | 25.52% | +0.94 | 35.2 |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Cliftonville | 954 | 1075 | 25.52% | 11.09% | 63.39% | -0.94 | 35.2 |
| 2027-02-27 | Portadown | 1253 | 970 | 77.77% | 10.21% | 12.02% | +1.99 | 26.4 |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Coleraine | 970 | 1253 | 12.02% | 10.21% | 77.77% | -1.99 | 26.4 |
| 2027-02-27 | Linfield | 1014 | 1172 | 26.91% | 11.13% | 61.95% | -0.86 | 33.1 |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1172 | 1014 | 61.95% | 11.13% | 26.91% | +0.86 | 33.1 |
| 2027-02-27 | Crusaders | 1210 | 1009 | 71.45% | 10.72% | 17.83% | +1.46 | 32.8 |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Glentoran | 1009 | 1210 | 17.83% | 10.72% | 71.45% | -1.46 | 32.8 |
| 2027-02-27 | Limavady United | 1263 | 1034 | 73.80% | 10.56% | 15.64% | +1.64 | 29.4 |
| 2027-02-27 | @ Larne | 1034 | 1263 | 15.64% | 10.56% | 73.80% | -1.64 | 29.4 |
| 2027-03-06 | Glentoran | 1048 | 1210 | 26.54% | 11.12% | 62.33% | -0.88 | 37.9 |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Ballymena United | 1210 | 1048 | 62.33% | 11.12% | 26.54% | +0.88 | 37.9 |
| 2027-03-06 | Bangor | 1253 | 954 | 78.81% | 10.10% | 11.09% | +2.09 | 27.1 |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Coleraine | 954 | 1253 | 11.09% | 10.10% | 78.81% | -2.09 | 27.1 |
| 2027-03-06 | Dungannon Swifts | 1009 | 1014 | 47.15% | 11.36% | 41.50% | +0.13 | 49.5 |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Crusaders | 1014 | 1009 | 41.50% | 11.36% | 47.15% | -0.13 | 49.5 |
| 2027-03-06 | Carrick Rangers | 1034 | 1111 | 36.95% | 11.33% | 51.72% | -0.34 | 42.6 |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Limavady United | 1111 | 1034 | 51.72% | 11.33% | 36.95% | +0.34 | 42.6 |
| 2027-03-06 | Larne | 1172 | 1263 | 35.17% | 11.31% | 53.52% | -0.43 | 49.1 |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Linfield | 1263 | 1172 | 53.52% | 11.31% | 35.17% | +0.43 | 49.1 |
| 2027-03-06 | Cliftonville | 970 | 1075 | 33.39% | 11.28% | 55.33% | -0.51 | 36.9 |
| 2027-03-06 | @ Portadown | 1075 | 970 | 55.33% | 11.28% | 33.39% | +0.51 | 36.9 |
| 2027-03-20 | Dungannon Swifts | 1048 | 1014 | 52.64% | 11.32% | 36.04% | +0.38 | 46.6 |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Ballymena United | 1014 | 1048 | 36.04% | 11.32% | 52.64% | -0.38 | 46.6 |
| 2027-03-20 | Glentoran | 954 | 1210 | 17.41% | 10.69% | 71.90% | -1.49 | 25.3 |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Bangor | 1210 | 954 | 71.90% | 10.69% | 17.41% | +1.49 | 25.3 |
| 2027-03-20 | Crusaders | 1111 | 1009 | 61.32% | 11.15% | 27.53% | +0.82 | 43.9 |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1009 | 1111 | 27.53% | 11.15% | 61.32% | -0.82 | 43.9 |
| 2027-03-20 | Limavady United | 1075 | 1034 | 53.45% | 11.31% | 35.24% | +0.42 | 43.4 |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Cliftonville | 1034 | 1075 | 35.24% | 11.31% | 53.45% | -0.42 | 43.4 |
| 2027-03-20 | Coleraine | 1263 | 1253 | 49.25% | 11.35% | 39.40% | +0.22 | 60.1 |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Larne | 1253 | 1263 | 39.40% | 11.35% | 49.25% | -0.22 | 60.1 |
| 2027-03-20 | Portadown | 1172 | 970 | 71.53% | 10.72% | 17.76% | +1.46 | 25.7 |
| 2027-03-20 | @ Linfield | 970 | 1172 | 17.76% | 10.72% | 71.53% | -1.46 | 25.7 |
| 2027-03-27 | Cliftonville | 1253 | 1075 | 69.36% | 10.84% | 19.80% | +1.31 | 38.2 |
| 2027-03-27 | @ Coleraine | 1075 | 1253 | 19.80% | 10.84% | 69.36% | -1.31 | 38.2 |
| 2027-03-27 | Bangor | 1009 | 954 | 55.34% | 11.28% | 33.38% | +0.52 | 45.1 |
| 2027-03-27 | @ Crusaders | 954 | 1009 | 33.38% | 11.28% | 55.34% | -0.52 | 45.1 |
| 2027-03-27 | Larne | 1014 | 1263 | 17.98% | 10.73% | 71.29% | -1.45 | 30.1 |
| 2027-03-27 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1263 | 1014 | 71.29% | 10.73% | 17.98% | +1.45 | 30.1 |
| 2027-03-27 | Linfield | 1210 | 1172 | 53.08% | 11.31% | 35.61% | +0.40 | 49.8 |
| 2027-03-27 | @ Glentoran | 1172 | 1210 | 35.61% | 11.31% | 53.08% | -0.40 | 49.8 |
| 2027-03-27 | Ballymena United | 1034 | 1048 | 45.84% | 11.36% | 42.80% | +0.07 | 47.6 |
| 2027-03-27 | @ Limavady United | 1048 | 1034 | 42.80% | 11.36% | 45.84% | -0.07 | 47.6 |
| 2027-03-27 | Carrick Rangers | 970 | 1111 | 28.83% | 11.19% | 59.98% | -0.75 | 34.7 |
| 2027-03-27 | @ Portadown | 1111 | 970 | 59.98% | 11.19% | 28.83% | +0.75 | 34.7 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 2026-08-29 | 17.56% | Crusaders | 1009 | 2 | @ Glentoran | 1213 | 1 |
| 2 | 2026-08-08 | 25.12% | Ballymena United | 1027 | 3 | @ Linfield | 1152 | 0 |
| 3 | 2026-09-25 | 27.53% | Linfield | 1160 | 3 | @ Coleraine | 1263 | 1 |
| 4 | 2026-08-29 | 30.25% | Dungannon Swifts | 1013 | 2 | @ Cliftonville | 1093 | 0 |
| 5 | 2026-10-03 | 35.46% | Ballymena United | 1042 | 1 | @ Cliftonville | 1081 | 0 |
| 6 | 2026-09-12 | 35.74% | Cliftonville | 1086 | 3 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1122 | 1 |
| 7 | 2026-10-03 | 36.04% | @ Portadown | 960 | 3 | Limavady United | 1044 | 1 |
| 8 | 2026-08-15 | 36.48% | @ Linfield | 1131 | 2 | Glentoran | 1212 | 1 |
| 9 | 2026-09-05 | 38.75% | Dungannon Swifts | 1026 | 2 | @ Limavady United | 1040 | 0 |
| 10 | 2026-08-15 | 40.44% | Dungannon Swifts | 999 | 1 | @ Portadown | 1001 | 0 |
| 11 | 2026-08-15 | 40.91% | @ Crusaders | 999 | 2 | Ballymena United | 1048 | 1 |
| 12 | 2026-09-26 | 41.02% | @ Limavady United | 1039 | 1 | Cliftonville | 1087 | 0 |
| 13 | 2026-09-12 | 43.21% | Limavady United | 1029 | 2 | @ Crusaders | 1012 | 1 |
| 14 | 2026-09-15 | 44.14% | @ Crusaders | 1007 | 3 | Dungannon Swifts | 1033 | 0 |
| 15 | 2026-09-19 | 44.23% | @ Bangor | 951 | 3 | Portadown | 976 | 1 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-08-08 | 20.50 | Ballymena United | 3 | 1027 | 25.12% | @ Linfield | 0 | 1152 | 63.80% | 11.08% |
| 2 | 2026-09-15 | 14.65 | @ Crusaders | 3 | 1007 | 44.14% | Dungannon Swifts | 0 | 1033 | 44.50% | 11.36% |
| 3 | 2026-10-03 | 13.71 | @ Carrick Rangers | 4 | 1098 | 57.97% | Crusaders | 0 | 1022 | 30.80% | 11.23% |
| 4 | 2026-08-29 | 12.98 | Dungannon Swifts | 2 | 1013 | 30.25% | @ Cliftonville | 0 | 1093 | 58.53% | 11.22% |
| 5 | 2026-08-29 | 12.71 | Carrick Rangers | 4 | 1114 | 60.45% | @ Bangor | 0 | 969 | 28.37% | 11.18% |
| 6 | 2026-09-25 | 11.76 | Linfield | 3 | 1160 | 27.53% | @ Coleraine | 1 | 1263 | 61.32% | 11.15% |
| 7 | 2026-08-15 | 11.64 | Cliftonville | 3 | 1085 | 54.25% | @ Bangor | 0 | 989 | 34.46% | 11.30% |
| 8 | 2026-09-05 | 11.18 | Dungannon Swifts | 2 | 1026 | 38.75% | @ Limavady United | 0 | 1040 | 49.91% | 11.34% |
| 9 | 2026-09-12 | 10.23 | Cliftonville | 3 | 1086 | 35.74% | @ Carrick Rangers | 1 | 1122 | 52.95% | 11.31% |
| 10 | 2026-10-03 | 10.18 | @ Portadown | 3 | 960 | 36.04% | Limavady United | 1 | 1044 | 52.64% | 11.32% |
| 11 | 2026-09-19 | 8.72 | @ Bangor | 3 | 951 | 44.23% | Portadown | 1 | 976 | 44.41% | 11.36% |
| 12 | 2026-08-22 | 8.57 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 2 | 1004 | 51.59% | Bangor | 0 | 978 | 37.08% | 11.33% |
| 13 | 2026-08-29 | 8.11 | Linfield | 2 | 1141 | 53.81% | @ Limavady United | 0 | 1049 | 34.89% | 11.30% |
| 14 | 2026-08-29 | 7.92 | Crusaders | 2 | 1009 | 17.56% | @ Glentoran | 1 | 1213 | 71.73% | 10.70% |
| 15 | 2026-08-22 | 7.52 | Coleraine | 2 | 1236 | 56.60% | @ Carrick Rangers | 0 | 1122 | 32.14% | 11.26% |
| 16 | 2026-09-26 | 7.45 | @ Ballymena United | 2 | 1035 | 56.94% | Portadown | 0 | 967 | 31.81% | 11.25% |
| 17 | 2026-09-19 | 7.15 | Larne | 5 | 1255 | 60.27% | @ Carrick Rangers | 2 | 1112 | 28.55% | 11.18% |
| 18 | 2026-09-26 | 6.75 | @ Glentoran | 2 | 1198 | 60.23% | Carrick Rangers | 0 | 1105 | 28.59% | 11.18% |
| 19 | 2026-10-03 | 6.30 | Ballymena United | 1 | 1042 | 35.46% | @ Cliftonville | 0 | 1081 | 53.23% | 11.31% |
| 20 | 2026-08-21 | 6.23 | Glentoran | 2 | 1206 | 62.65% | @ Ballymena United | 0 | 1043 | 26.24% | 11.11% |
| 21 | 2026-09-15 | 6.21 | @ Limavady United | 3 | 1034 | 58.25% | Bangor | 1 | 957 | 30.52% | 11.23% |
| 22 | 2026-08-28 | 6.19 | Coleraine | 3 | 1243 | 71.63% | @ Portadown | 0 | 991 | 17.66% | 10.71% |
| 23 | 2026-08-15 | 5.83 | @ Linfield | 2 | 1131 | 36.48% | Glentoran | 1 | 1212 | 52.20% | 11.32% |
| 24 | 2026-09-05 | 5.82 | @ Cliftonville | 3 | 1080 | 60.38% | Portadown | 1 | 985 | 28.44% | 11.18% |
| 25 | 2026-08-15 | 5.75 | Dungannon Swifts | 1 | 999 | 40.44% | @ Portadown | 0 | 1001 | 48.21% | 11.35% |
Most & Least Exciting Games
The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.
| # | Date | Excitement | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-09-05 | 66.3 | @ Bangor | 2 | 956 | 36.61% | Ballymena United | 2 | 1036 | 52.07% | 11.32% |
| 2 | 2026-09-12 | 59.5 | @ Glentoran | 1 | 1201 | 75.13% | Bangor | 1 | 955 | 14.41% | 10.46% |
| 3 | 2026-09-15 | 59.3 | @ Ballymena United | 1 | 1034 | 36.88% | Carrick Rangers | 1 | 1112 | 51.79% | 11.33% |
| 4 | 2026-09-15 | 59.3 | @ Portadown | 1 | 975 | 24.16% | Linfield | 1 | 1158 | 64.80% | 11.04% |
| 5 | 2026-09-19 | 59.2 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1 | 1018 | 45.59% | Ballymena United | 1 | 1035 | 43.05% | 11.36% |
| 6 | 2026-08-29 | 55.2 | Crusaders | 2 | 1009 | 17.56% | @ Glentoran | 1 | 1213 | 71.73% | 10.70% |
| 7 | 2026-08-15 | 54.5 | @ Coleraine | 0 | 1236 | 47.28% | Larne | 0 | 1240 | 41.36% | 11.36% |
| 8 | 2026-08-22 | 51.5 | @ Crusaders | 3 | 1004 | 49.16% | Portadown | 2 | 995 | 39.50% | 11.35% |
| 9 | 2026-08-15 | 49.6 | @ Linfield | 2 | 1131 | 36.48% | Glentoran | 1 | 1212 | 52.20% | 11.32% |
| 10 | 2026-08-15 | 48.1 | @ Crusaders | 2 | 999 | 40.91% | Ballymena United | 1 | 1048 | 47.73% | 11.36% |
| 11 | 2026-09-25 | 48.0 | Linfield | 3 | 1160 | 27.53% | @ Coleraine | 1 | 1263 | 61.32% | 11.15% |
| 12 | 2026-09-12 | 47.5 | Limavady United | 2 | 1029 | 43.21% | @ Crusaders | 1 | 1012 | 45.43% | 11.36% |
| 13 | 2026-09-15 | 46.1 | Coleraine | 2 | 1256 | 48.93% | @ Glentoran | 1 | 1199 | 39.72% | 11.35% |
| 14 | 2026-08-15 | 45.5 | Carrick Rangers | 2 | 1117 | 49.90% | @ Limavady United | 1 | 1053 | 38.76% | 11.34% |
| 15 | 2026-09-12 | 45.3 | Cliftonville | 3 | 1086 | 35.74% | @ Carrick Rangers | 1 | 1122 | 52.95% | 11.31% |
| 16 | 2026-10-03 | 45.2 | @ Portadown | 3 | 960 | 36.04% | Limavady United | 1 | 1044 | 52.64% | 11.32% |
| 17 | 2026-09-04 | 44.9 | @ Larne | 2 | 1240 | 52.80% | Glentoran | 1 | 1205 | 35.89% | 11.31% |
| 18 | 2026-09-11 | 44.4 | @ Coleraine | 3 | 1254 | 72.96% | Ballymena United | 2 | 1036 | 16.42% | 10.62% |
| 19 | 2026-09-19 | 43.9 | Glentoran | 2 | 1194 | 55.24% | @ Cliftonville | 1 | 1090 | 33.47% | 11.28% |
| 20 | 2026-10-04 | 43.7 | Coleraine | 3 | 1251 | 75.15% | @ Bangor | 2 | 956 | 14.40% | 10.46% |
| 21 | 2026-09-26 | 43.6 | @ Crusaders | 2 | 1019 | 55.92% | Bangor | 1 | 959 | 32.81% | 11.27% |
| 22 | 2026-10-03 | 43.1 | Ballymena United | 1 | 1042 | 35.46% | @ Cliftonville | 0 | 1081 | 53.23% | 11.31% |
| 23 | 2026-08-07 | 42.9 | @ Cliftonville | 2 | 1082 | 58.45% | Crusaders | 1 | 1003 | 30.32% | 11.22% |
| 24 | 2026-09-19 | 42.7 | @ Bangor | 3 | 951 | 44.23% | Portadown | 1 | 976 | 44.41% | 11.36% |
| 25 | 2026-08-15 | 41.6 | Dungannon Swifts | 1 | 999 | 40.44% | @ Portadown | 0 | 1001 | 48.21% | 11.35% |
| # | Date | Excitement | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 2026-08-28 | 25.0 | Coleraine | 3 | 1243 | 71.63% | @ Portadown | 0 | 991 | 17.66% | 10.71% |
| 2 | 2026-09-12 | 27.2 | Larne | 2 | 1246 | 72.89% | @ Portadown | 0 | 979 | 16.48% | 10.63% |
| 3 | 2026-10-03 | 28.0 | @ Glentoran | 2 | 1205 | 70.16% | Dungannon Swifts | 0 | 1018 | 19.05% | 10.80% |
| 4 | 2026-08-29 | 28.5 | Carrick Rangers | 4 | 1114 | 60.45% | @ Bangor | 0 | 969 | 28.37% | 11.18% |
| 5 | 2026-09-15 | 29.0 | @ Larne | 2 | 1250 | 67.01% | Cliftonville | 0 | 1096 | 22.04% | 10.95% |
| 6 | 2026-08-08 | 29.1 | @ Glentoran | 2 | 1207 | 66.40% | Limavady United | 0 | 1058 | 22.62% | 10.98% |
| 7 | 2026-10-03 | 29.2 | @ Carrick Rangers | 4 | 1098 | 57.97% | Crusaders | 0 | 1022 | 30.80% | 11.23% |
| 8 | 2026-09-05 | 30.1 | @ Coleraine | 4 | 1250 | 74.16% | Crusaders | 1 | 1017 | 15.30% | 10.54% |
| 9 | 2026-08-15 | 30.2 | Cliftonville | 3 | 1085 | 54.25% | @ Bangor | 0 | 989 | 34.46% | 11.30% |
| 10 | 2026-08-21 | 30.3 | Glentoran | 2 | 1206 | 62.65% | @ Ballymena United | 0 | 1043 | 26.24% | 11.11% |
| 11 | 2026-09-08 | 30.3 | @ Larne | 1 | 1245 | 78.13% | Bangor | 0 | 957 | 11.70% | 10.17% |
| 12 | 2026-09-26 | 31.0 | @ Glentoran | 2 | 1198 | 60.23% | Carrick Rangers | 0 | 1105 | 28.59% | 11.18% |
| 13 | 2026-09-19 | 31.9 | @ Coleraine | 1 | 1261 | 73.11% | Limavady United | 0 | 1041 | 16.28% | 10.61% |
| 14 | 2026-09-26 | 31.9 | @ Ballymena United | 2 | 1035 | 56.94% | Portadown | 0 | 967 | 31.81% | 11.25% |
| 15 | 2026-08-22 | 32.2 | Coleraine | 2 | 1236 | 56.60% | @ Carrick Rangers | 0 | 1122 | 32.14% | 11.26% |
| 16 | 2026-08-29 | 32.9 | Linfield | 2 | 1141 | 53.81% | @ Limavady United | 0 | 1049 | 34.89% | 11.30% |
| 17 | 2026-09-15 | 33.2 | @ Crusaders | 3 | 1007 | 44.14% | Dungannon Swifts | 0 | 1033 | 44.50% | 11.36% |
| 18 | 2026-08-22 | 33.5 | @ Dungannon Swifts | 2 | 1004 | 51.59% | Bangor | 0 | 978 | 37.08% | 11.33% |
| 19 | 2026-09-19 | 34.2 | @ Linfield | 1 | 1157 | 65.00% | Crusaders | 0 | 1022 | 23.96% | 11.03% |
| 20 | 2026-08-08 | 35.1 | @ Carrick Rangers | 1 | 1114 | 62.11% | Portadown | 0 | 1004 | 26.76% | 11.13% |
| 21 | 2026-08-08 | 35.2 | Coleraine | 3 | 1232 | 69.51% | @ Dungannon Swifts | 1 | 1003 | 19.66% | 10.83% |
| 22 | 2026-09-19 | 36.6 | Larne | 5 | 1255 | 60.27% | @ Carrick Rangers | 2 | 1112 | 28.55% | 11.18% |
| 23 | 2026-09-12 | 36.7 | Linfield | 1 | 1154 | 56.97% | @ Dungannon Swifts | 0 | 1037 | 31.78% | 11.25% |
| 24 | 2026-09-05 | 37.4 | Dungannon Swifts | 2 | 1026 | 38.75% | @ Limavady United | 0 | 1040 | 49.91% | 11.34% |
| 25 | 2026-08-21 | 37.8 | @ Linfield | 1 | 1137 | 53.39% | Cliftonville | 0 | 1097 | 35.30% | 11.31% |