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2025-26 NIFL Premiership Season

228 games

Final

Champion

Larne

83 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Coleraine

4.02 points above expected

80 points · 75.98 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Bangor

6.22 points below expected

39 points · 45.22 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Larne 34 23 7 4 76 68 22 +46 66.28 +9.72
2 Glentoran 34 21 6 7 69 65 36 +29 58.29 +10.71
3 Coleraine 34 21 5 8 68 68 33 +35 61.92 +6.08
4 Linfield 34 18 8 8 62 57 26 +31 63.73 -1.73
5 Cliftonville 34 14 8 12 50 51 49 +2 50.65 -0.65
6 Carrick Rangers 34 13 7 14 46 52 53 -1 42.36 +3.64
7 Dungannon Swifts 34 15 1 18 46 40 66 -26 42.07 +3.93
8 Portadown 34 12 3 19 39 40 59 -19 39.61 -0.61
9 Bangor 34 10 6 18 36 40 61 -21 40.67 -4.67
10 Ballymena United 34 9 7 18 34 41 53 -12 40.60 -6.60
11 Crusaders 34 8 5 21 29 41 74 -33 40.29 -11.29
12 Glenavon 34 8 1 25 25 35 66 -31 28.80 -3.80
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Larne 38 25 8 5 83 73 26 +47 85.85 -2.85
2 Coleraine 38 25 5 8 80 83 37 +46 75.98 +4.02
3 Glentoran 38 23 8 7 77 73 38 +35 77.32 -0.32
4 Linfield 38 19 9 10 66 61 33 +28 69.59 -3.59
5 Cliftonville 38 15 8 15 53 55 59 -4 55.22 -2.22
6 Dungannon Swifts 38 15 1 22 46 42 77 -35 49.37 -3.37
# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Carrick Rangers 38 15 8 15 53 64 58 +6 55.49 -2.49
2 Portadown 38 13 5 20 44 44 66 -22 42.97 +1.03
3 Ballymena United 38 10 9 19 39 46 58 -12 41.22 -2.22
4 Bangor 38 10 9 19 39 41 65 -24 45.22 -6.22
5 Crusaders 38 10 6 22 36 48 81 -33 34.59 +1.41
6 Glenavon 38 8 4 26 28 37 69 -32 31.74 -3.74

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Coleraine 80 75.98 +4.02
2 Crusaders 36 34.59 +1.41
3 Portadown 44 42.97 +1.03
4 Glentoran 77 77.32 -0.32
5 Ballymena United 39 41.22 -2.22

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Bangor 39 45.22 -6.22
2 Glenavon 28 31.74 -3.74
3 Linfield 66 69.59 -3.59
4 Dungannon Swifts 46 49.37 -3.37
5 Larne 83 85.85 -2.85

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dungannon Swifts 4 Sep 20 – Oct 11 1 in 225
2 Carrick Rangers 5 Jan 17 – Feb 10 1 in 152
3 Coleraine 5 Mar 28 – Apr 25 1 in 59
4 Crusaders 3 Apr 11 – Apr 25 1 in 25
5 Larne 6 Aug 22 – Sep 20 1 in 22

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Glenavon 11 Aug 9 – Oct 11 1 in 1,791
2 Linfield 3 Dec 20 – Dec 30 1 in 65
3 Larne 2 Feb 14 – Feb 20 1 in 55
4 Dungannon Swifts 7 Mar 13 – Apr 25 1 in 44
5 Glentoran 2 Nov 8 – Nov 21 1 in 31

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Carrick Rangers 9 Jan 13 – Feb 28 1 in 521
2 Larne 18 Oct 18 – Feb 10 1 in 130
3 Cliftonville 8 Oct 25 – Dec 20 1 in 61
4 Ballymena United 6 Mar 7 – Apr 15 1 in 32
5 Coleraine 7 Mar 14 – Apr 25 1 in 29

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Cliftonville 6 Dec 20 – Jan 31 1 in 81
2 Glenavon 11 Aug 9 – Oct 11 1 in 58
3 Larne 4 Feb 10 – Feb 24 1 in 49
4 Glentoran 5 Nov 8 – Dec 12 1 in 45
5 Crusaders 12 Jan 17 – Apr 7 1 in 43

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Larne 1378 83 +12 10 9.3 +0.7
Coleraine 1371 80 +96 15 7.9 +7.1
Glentoran 1336 77 -7 8 9.0 -1.0
Linfield 1246 66 -47 4 7.9 -3.9
Carrick Rangers 1196 53 +30 10 9.4 +0.6
Cliftonville 1153 53 -4 6 4.8 +1.2
Dungannon Swifts 1041 46 -49 0 3.5 -3.5
Portadown 1041 44 -8 8 6.0 +2.0
Ballymena United 1073 39 -11 5 7.6 -2.6
Bangor 1017 39 -36 3 6.9 -3.9
Crusaders 1037 36 +43 10 5.6 +4.4
Glenavon 1043 28 -17 3 6.8 -3.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BU BAN CR CLI COL CRU DS GLE GLE LAR LIN POR
Ballymena United —
2-1-1
6.00
3-1-0
5.11
0-2-1
3.34
1-0-2
2.63
1-2-1
6.07
0-0-3
4.31
1-2-1
6.49
0-0-3
2.77
0-0-3
2.66
1-0-2
2.37
1-1-2
5.86
Bangor
1-1-2
5.26
 —
0-1-3
4.80
1-1-1
3.53
1-0-2
2.53
1-2-1
5.85
2-0-1
3.63
2-1-1
6.66
0-1-2
2.68
0-1-2
2.17
0-0-3
2.55
2-1-1
5.67
Carrick Rangers
0-1-3
6.15
3-1-0
6.47
 —
1-0-2
3.57
0-1-2
2.41
2-1-1
5.97
2-1-0
3.70
3-0-1
7.17
0-1-2
2.46
1-0-2
1.95
1-1-1
2.15
2-1-1
6.25
Cliftonville
1-2-0
5.11
1-1-1
4.91
2-0-1
4.89
 —
1-1-2
4.17
2-0-1
5.83
2-0-2
6.64
2-0-1
5.89
0-1-3
3.71
0-2-2
3.78
2-1-1
3.51
2-0-1
5.20
Coleraine
2-0-1
5.84
2-0-1
5.93
2-1-0
6.06
2-1-1
7.11
 —
3-0-0
5.48
3-0-1
7.76
3-0-0
6.44
1-1-2
5.61
2-0-2
4.73
2-2-0
5.77
3-0-0
5.89
Crusaders
1-2-1
5.19
1-2-1
5.40
1-1-2
5.30
1-0-2
2.63
0-0-3
2.98
 —
2-0-1
3.62
3-0-1
6.04
0-0-3
2.83
0-0-3
1.98
0-0-3
2.08
1-1-2
5.37
Dungannon Swifts
3-0-0
4.13
1-0-2
4.81
0-1-2
4.74
2-0-2
4.62
1-0-3
3.52
1-0-2
4.82
 —
3-0-0
5.16
2-0-2
3.35
1-0-3
2.67
0-0-4
3.12
1-0-2
4.49
Glenavon
1-2-1
4.77
1-1-2
4.60
1-0-3
4.10
1-0-2
2.57
0-0-3
2.06
1-0-3
5.22
0-0-3
3.29
 —
1-0-2
2.09
0-0-3
1.61
1-0-2
1.64
1-1-2
4.73
Glentoran
3-0-0
5.70
2-1-0
5.78
2-1-0
6.01
3-1-0
7.57
2-1-1
5.65
3-0-0
5.64
2-0-2
7.95
2-0-1
6.39
 —
0-2-2
4.64
1-2-1
5.27
3-0-0
5.63
Larne
3-0-0
5.81
2-1-0
6.31
2-0-1
6.53
2-2-0
7.51
2-0-2
6.54
3-0-0
6.51
3-0-1
8.65
3-0-0
6.90
2-2-0
6.62
 —
1-3-0
6.32
2-0-1
6.35
Linfield
2-0-1
6.10
3-0-0
5.92
1-1-1
6.33
1-1-2
7.77
0-2-2
5.49
3-0-0
6.40
4-0-0
8.17
2-0-1
6.87
1-2-1
5.99
0-3-1
4.94
 —
2-0-1
6.51
Portadown
2-1-1
5.41
1-1-2
5.58
1-1-2
5.01
1-0-2
3.25
0-0-3
2.57
2-1-1
5.89
2-0-1
3.95
2-1-1
6.53
0-0-3
2.83
1-0-2
2.13
1-0-2
1.97
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.88 +11.6
Allowed 0.80 -9.3
Differential 0.91 +5.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.39%7.46%8.33%3.29%2.19%0.88%26.54%
17.46%8.77%8.55%3.51%1.75%1.32%31.36%
28.33%8.55%3.95%2.19%0.66%0.88%24.56%
33.29%3.51%2.19%0.44%0.22%—9.65%
42.19%1.75%0.66%0.22%——4.82%
5+0.88%1.32%0.88%———3.07%
Total26.54%31.36%24.56%9.65%4.82%3.07%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.46 1.46 +0.00
SD 1.35 1.35 2.11
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 228

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%5.26%21.05%———28.95%
12.63%10.53%13.16%5.26%——31.58%
210.53%5.26%10.53%5.26%——31.58%
3——5.26%———5.26%
42.63%—————2.63%
5+———————
Total18.42%21.05%50.00%10.53%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.21 1.53 -0.32
SD 1.02 0.92 1.49
CV 0.84 0.60 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.26%10.53%7.89%5.26%5.26%—34.21%
15.26%15.79%2.63%7.89%—2.63%34.21%
22.63%10.53%2.63%5.26%2.63%—23.68%
32.63%2.63%————5.26%
4—2.63%————2.63%
5+———————
Total15.79%42.11%13.16%18.42%7.89%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.08 1.71 -0.63
SD 1.02 1.39 1.85
CV 0.95 0.81 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%7.89%2.63%——2.63%15.79%
17.89%13.16%18.42%5.26%——44.74%
25.26%2.63%2.63%2.63%——13.16%
35.26%—7.89%2.63%——15.79%
4—2.63%—2.63%——5.26%
5+—5.26%————5.26%
Total21.05%31.58%31.58%13.16%—2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.68 1.53 +0.16
SD 1.44 1.33 2.05
CV 0.85 0.87 —
Max 6 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
07.89%5.26%5.26%2.63%2.63%—23.68%
110.53%5.26%13.16%2.63%2.63%—34.21%
27.89%5.26%7.89%2.63%—2.63%26.32%
3—5.26%5.26%———10.53%
4———————
5+——5.26%———5.26%
Total26.32%21.05%36.84%7.89%5.26%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.45 1.55 -0.11
SD 1.27 1.35 1.77
CV 0.88 0.87 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%2.63%2.63%2.63%——10.53%
17.89%7.89%10.53%2.63%——28.95%
215.79%10.53%2.63%———28.95%
32.63%7.89%————10.53%
45.26%5.26%————10.53%
5+—5.26%5.26%———10.53%
Total34.21%39.47%21.05%5.26%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.18 0.97 +1.21
SD 1.61 0.88 1.89
CV 0.74 0.91 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%10.53%10.53%2.63%10.53%—36.84%
12.63%5.26%5.26%——7.89%21.05%
25.26%5.26%7.89%2.63%2.63%2.63%26.32%
32.63%2.63%2.63%—2.63%—10.53%
42.63%2.63%————5.26%
5+———————
Total15.79%26.32%26.32%5.26%15.79%10.53%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.26 2.13 -0.87
SD 1.22 1.66 2.26
CV 0.97 0.78 —
Max 4 6 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—7.89%13.16%5.26%2.63%7.89%36.84%
110.53%—10.53%2.63%5.26%2.63%31.58%
213.16%5.26%————18.42%
3—5.26%2.63%2.63%——10.53%
4——2.63%———2.63%
5+———————
Total23.68%18.42%28.95%10.53%7.89%10.53%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 2.03 -0.92
SD 1.11 1.87 2.50
CV 1.00 0.92 —
Max 4 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%15.79%15.79%7.89%——42.11%
12.63%5.26%13.16%5.26%2.63%2.63%31.58%
2—5.26%2.63%2.63%—2.63%13.16%
35.26%7.89%————13.16%
4———————
5+———————
Total10.53%34.21%31.58%15.79%2.63%5.26%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.97 1.82 -0.84
SD 1.05 1.23 1.73
CV 1.08 0.68 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%7.89%————10.53%
110.53%13.16%—5.26%2.63%—31.58%
213.16%18.42%5.26%——2.63%39.47%
32.63%—2.63%———5.26%
45.26%—————5.26%
5+5.26%2.63%————7.89%
Total39.47%42.11%7.89%5.26%2.63%2.63%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.92 1.00 +0.92
SD 1.48 1.27 2.12
CV 0.77 1.27 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%2.63%2.63%———15.79%
17.89%7.89%2.63%—2.63%—21.05%
221.05%15.79%2.63%2.63%——42.11%
37.89%—————7.89%
45.26%2.63%2.63%———10.53%
5+2.63%—————2.63%
Total55.26%28.95%10.53%2.63%2.63%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.92 0.68 +1.24
SD 1.53 0.96 1.91
CV 0.80 1.41 —
Max 8 4 +8
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.53%5.26%10.53%2.63%——28.95%
113.16%10.53%5.26%2.63%——31.58%
22.63%5.26%2.63%———10.53%
310.53%7.89%————18.42%
42.63%2.63%————5.26%
5+2.63%2.63%————5.26%
Total42.11%34.21%18.42%5.26%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 0.87 +0.74
SD 1.62 0.91 2.06
CV 1.01 1.04 —
Max 6 3 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
02.63%7.89%7.89%10.53%5.26%—34.21%
17.89%10.53%7.89%2.63%5.26%—34.21%
22.63%13.16%—2.63%2.63%—21.05%
3—2.63%————2.63%
42.63%2.63%2.63%———7.89%
5+———————
Total15.79%36.84%18.42%15.79%13.16%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.16 1.74 -0.58
SD 1.17 1.29 1.98
CV 1.01 0.74 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 38

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Larne 1362 83 66.28 +16.72 89.0% 45 54 61 67 71 78 81
Glentoran 1358 77 58.29 +18.71 91.0% 42 46 53 57 62 71 83
Coleraine 1348 80 61.92 +18.08 79.0% 39 45 56 63 67 75 79
Linfield 1258 66 63.73 +2.27 44.0% 46 51 59 63 68 79 83
Carrick Rangers 1190 53 42.36 +10.64 71.0% 27 31 38 42 47 54 58
Cliftonville 1140 53 50.65 +2.35 52.0% 31 38 46 50 57 62 66
Ballymena United 1082 39 40.60 -1.60 21.0% 20 26 35 41 46 57 69
Dungannon Swifts 1057 46 42.07 +3.93 69.0% 25 32 37 41 47 53 58
Glenavon 1049 28 28.80 -0.80 29.0% 12 19 24 28 33 39 49
Bangor 1033 39 40.67 -1.67 25.0% 26 28 36 41 45 51 58
Crusaders 1028 36 40.29 -4.29 5.0% 23 29 35 39 45 51 60
Portadown 1025 44 39.61 +4.39 52.0% 23 27 35 39 43 52 58

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase
First Phase
Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+10.53%
Slight Edge
46.49%17.54%35.96%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 36.71 Elo pts.
143 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.27 goals
Neutral
-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Open
123410
Champion Preseason Odds
49%
Larne, 1st of 12
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.08/gm
Photo Finish
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 6 * Some Luck: 6 to 9 * Lucky: 9 to 12 * Wild Swing: 12 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.3 * Close: 1.3 to 1.95 * Off: 1.95 to 2.6 * Way Off: 2.6 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
6.35 points
Some Luck
07.5019
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.624
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.83%
91.00%
Glentoran
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 4.17%
5.00%
Crusaders
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 12
Minimal Outliers
01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Balanced
00.190.250.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 140.35
2.19
Strong Separation
11.852.253
Interquartile Edge
79%
Clear Edge
50%70%81%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
89%
Even
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
54%
Some Drama
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
21%
Occasional
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.56
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.34
Very Even
00.40.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.71
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.65
Strong Carryover
00.470.620.761
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.22 * Well Above Noise: 0.22 and up.
Probability calibration
0.06
Borderline
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.00
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.078
Well Within Noise
00.1090.25

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team123456789101112
Larne49.00%20.00%18.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%——————
Coleraine20.00%28.00%18.00%17.00%7.00%6.00%2.00%2.00%————
Glentoran14.00%11.00%28.00%24.00%10.00%4.00%9.00%—————
Linfield16.00%38.00%24.00%14.00%5.00%1.00%2.00%—————
Cliftonville—1.00%10.00%18.00%28.00%10.00%13.00%7.00%9.00%2.00%2.00%—
Dungannon Swifts—1.00%—4.00%13.00%11.00%10.00%20.00%12.00%17.00%8.00%4.00%
Carrick Rangers———7.00%8.00%16.00%20.00%14.00%10.00%13.00%8.00%4.00%
Portadown———2.00%7.00%9.00%10.00%12.00%16.00%18.00%17.00%9.00%
Ballymena United1.00%——5.00%5.00%14.00%11.00%16.00%17.00%8.00%13.00%10.00%
Bangor—1.00%—1.00%6.00%16.00%10.00%18.00%18.00%15.00%9.00%6.00%
Crusaders——2.00%1.00%8.00%9.00%13.00%9.00%15.00%16.00%19.00%8.00%
Glenavon—————1.00%—2.00%3.00%11.00%24.00%59.00%
Team123456789101112
Larne95.26%4.19%0.54%0.01%————————
Coleraine1.23%35.47%55.84%7.46%————————
Glentoran3.51%58.97%33.82%3.70%————————
Linfield—1.37%9.80%88.81%0.02%———————
Cliftonville———0.02%91.73%8.25%——————
Dungannon Swifts————8.25%91.75%——————
Carrick Rangers——————97.73%2.13%0.14%———
Portadown——————0.42%25.97%42.21%28.09%3.21%0.10%
Ballymena United——————0.08%13.10%27.58%49.72%8.79%0.73%
Bangor——————1.77%58.55%28.07%11.04%0.57%—
Crusaders———————0.25%1.88%8.93%62.50%26.44%
Glenavon————————0.12%2.22%24.93%72.73%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
Carrick Rangers 95.00% 5.00% —
Cliftonville 100% — —
Coleraine 100% — —
Glentoran 100% — —
Larne 100% — —
Linfield 100% — —
Dungannon Swifts 86.00% 11.00% 3.00%
Bangor 79.00% 13.00% 8.00%
Crusaders 67.00% 23.00% 10.00%
Portadown 75.00% 15.00% 10.00%
Ballymena United 75.00% 14.00% 11.00%
Glenavon 23.00% 19.00% 58.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team Qualified for Championship Round Survived Relegation Round Relegated
Bangor 99.43% 0.57% —
Carrick Rangers 100% — —
Cliftonville 100% — —
Coleraine 100% — —
Dungannon Swifts 100% — —
Glentoran 100% — —
Larne 100% — —
Linfield 100% — —
Portadown 96.69% 3.21% 0.10%
Ballymena United 90.48% 8.79% 0.73%
Crusaders 11.06% 62.50% 26.44%
Glenavon 2.34% 24.93% 72.73%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2025-08-09 Carrick Rangers L 3-458.9 1160 1096 54.27% 18.29% 27.44%+0.70 -10.8 0
2025-08-09 @ Crusaders W 4-358.9 1096 1160 27.44% 18.29% 54.27%-0.70 +10.8 3
2025-08-09 Ballymena United L 0-239.6 1127 1126 46.08% 18.56% 35.36%+0.27 -20.1 0
2025-08-09 @ Glenavon W 2-039.6 1126 1127 35.36% 18.56% 46.08%-0.27 +20.1 3
2025-08-09 Glentoran L 0-140.2 1136 1197 37.29% 18.59% 44.12%-0.17 -9.0 0
2025-08-09 @ Portadown W 1-040.2 1197 1136 44.12% 18.59% 37.29%+0.17 +9.0 3
2025-08-10 Cliftonville W 3-144.9 1115 1175 37.38% 18.59% 44.03%-0.16 +16.8 3
2025-08-10 @ Bangor L 1-344.9 1175 1115 44.03% 18.59% 37.38%+0.16 -16.8 0
2025-08-10 Larne W 1-042.0 1170 1222 38.59% 18.60% 42.81%-0.10 +10.0 3
2025-08-10 @ Coleraine L 0-142.0 1222 1170 42.81% 18.60% 38.59%+0.10 -10.0 0
2025-08-10 Dungannon Swifts W 3-030.8 1252 1156 57.90% 18.07% 24.04%+0.92 +16.8 3
2025-08-10 @ Linfield L 0-330.8 1156 1252 24.04% 18.07% 57.90%-0.92 -16.8 0
2025-08-16 Glenavon W 1-039.6 1106 1107 45.81% 18.57% 35.63%+0.25 +8.6 6
2025-08-16 @ Carrick Rangers L 0-139.6 1107 1106 35.63% 18.57% 45.81%-0.25 -8.6 0
2025-08-16 Coleraine D 0-050.8 1158 1180 42.79% 18.60% 38.61%+0.10 -0.2 1
2025-08-16 @ Cliftonville D 0-050.8 1180 1158 38.61% 18.60% 42.79%-0.10 +0.2 4
2025-08-16 Portadown L 1-443.3 1140 1127 47.60% 18.53% 33.87%+0.34 -25.4 0
2025-08-16 @ Dungannon Swifts W 4-143.3 1127 1140 33.87% 18.53% 47.60%-0.34 +25.4 3
2025-08-16 Bangor W 1-036.8 1206 1132 55.44% 18.22% 26.33%+0.77 +6.7 6
2025-08-16 @ Glentoran L 0-136.8 1132 1206 26.33% 18.22% 55.44%-0.77 -6.7 3
2025-08-19 Crusaders L 1-344.5 1125 1149 42.49% 18.60% 38.90%+0.09 -16.3 3
2025-08-19 @ Bangor W 3-144.5 1149 1125 38.90% 18.60% 42.49%-0.09 +16.3 3
2025-08-19 Larne D 1-155.2 1158 1212 38.28% 18.60% 43.12%-0.12 +0.2 2
2025-08-19 @ Cliftonville D 1-155.2 1212 1158 43.12% 18.60% 38.28%+0.12 -0.2 1
2025-08-19 Dungannon Swifts W 2-033.9 1181 1114 54.51% 18.27% 27.22%+0.72 +12.9 7
2025-08-19 @ Coleraine L 0-233.9 1114 1181 27.22% 18.27% 54.51%-0.72 -12.9 0
2025-08-19 Glenavon W 2-032.3 1212 1098 59.99% 17.90% 22.11%+1.05 +10.7 9
2025-08-19 @ Glentoran L 0-232.3 1098 1212 22.11% 17.90% 59.99%-1.05 -10.7 0
2025-08-19 Ballymena United L 0-239.9 1152 1146 46.79% 18.55% 34.66%+0.30 -20.4 3
2025-08-19 @ Portadown W 2-039.9 1146 1152 34.66% 18.55% 46.79%-0.30 +20.4 6
2025-08-22 Portadown W 4-030.6 1211 1132 56.09% 18.18% 25.73%+0.81 +23.3 4
2025-08-22 @ Larne L 0-430.6 1132 1211 25.73% 18.18% 56.09%-0.81 -23.3 3
2025-08-23 Bangor W 4-031.4 1166 1109 53.42% 18.33% 28.25%+0.66 +25.3 9
2025-08-23 @ Ballymena United L 0-431.4 1109 1166 28.25% 18.33% 53.42%-0.66 -25.3 3
2025-08-23 Glentoran L 0-237.2 1165 1223 37.72% 18.59% 43.68%-0.15 -17.1 3
2025-08-23 @ Crusaders W 2-037.2 1223 1165 43.68% 18.59% 37.72%+0.15 +17.1 12
2025-08-23 Carrick Rangers L 0-239.0 1101 1115 43.97% 18.59% 37.44%+0.16 -19.3 0
2025-08-23 @ Dungannon Swifts W 2-039.0 1115 1101 37.44% 18.59% 43.97%-0.16 +19.3 9
2025-08-23 Coleraine L 1-243.8 1088 1193 31.30% 18.46% 50.24%-0.48 -7.3 0
2025-08-23 @ Glenavon W 2-143.8 1193 1088 50.24% 18.46% 31.30%+0.48 +7.3 10
2025-08-24 Cliftonville W 1-035.7 1268 1158 59.56% 17.94% 22.50%+1.02 +5.8 6
2025-08-24 @ Linfield L 0-135.7 1158 1268 22.50% 17.94% 59.56%-1.02 -5.8 2
2025-08-29 Ballymena United W 2-034.9 1235 1191 51.65% 18.41% 29.95%+0.56 +14.0 7
2025-08-29 @ Larne L 0-234.9 1191 1235 29.95% 18.41% 51.65%-0.56 -14.0 9
2025-08-29 Crusaders W 2-146.8 1109 1148 40.26% 18.61% 41.13%-0.02 +9.2 6
2025-08-29 @ Portadown L 1-246.8 1148 1109 41.13% 18.61% 40.26%+0.02 -9.2 3
2025-08-30 Dungannon Swifts W 2-145.0 1083 1082 46.07% 18.56% 35.36%+0.27 +8.1 6
2025-08-30 @ Bangor L 1-245.0 1082 1083 35.36% 18.56% 46.07%-0.27 -8.1 0
2025-08-30 Glenavon W 3-139.6 1152 1080 55.22% 18.24% 26.54%+0.76 +11.0 5
2025-08-30 @ Cliftonville L 1-339.6 1080 1152 26.54% 18.24% 55.22%-0.76 -11.0 0
2025-08-30 Carrick Rangers D 1-155.4 1240 1134 59.09% 17.98% 22.94%+0.99 -1.9 13
2025-08-30 @ Glentoran D 1-155.4 1134 1240 22.94% 17.98% 59.09%-0.99 +1.9 10
2025-09-06 Glentoran L 0-237.2 1177 1238 37.29% 18.59% 44.13%-0.17 -16.9 9
2025-09-06 @ Ballymena United W 2-037.2 1238 1177 44.13% 18.59% 37.29%+0.17 +16.9 16
2025-09-06 Larne L 0-233.3 1091 1249 25.24% 18.15% 56.61%-0.84 -12.1 6
2025-09-06 @ Bangor W 2-033.3 1249 1091 56.61% 18.15% 25.24%+0.84 +12.1 10
2025-09-06 Cliftonville L 1-247.1 1136 1163 42.07% 18.60% 39.32%+0.07 -9.3 10
2025-09-06 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-147.1 1163 1136 39.32% 18.60% 42.07%-0.07 +9.3 8
2025-09-06 Coleraine L 0-434.2 1139 1201 37.19% 18.59% 44.22%-0.17 -32.0 3
2025-09-06 @ Crusaders W 4-034.2 1201 1139 44.22% 18.59% 37.19%+0.17 +32.0 13
2025-09-06 Dungannon Swifts L 0-239.3 1069 1074 45.25% 18.57% 36.18%+0.22 -19.8 0
2025-09-06 @ Glenavon W 2-039.3 1074 1069 36.18% 18.57% 45.25%-0.22 +19.8 3
2025-09-06 Portadown W 3-028.9 1274 1118 64.28% 17.47% 18.25%+1.35 +13.1 9
2025-09-06 @ Linfield L 0-328.9 1118 1274 18.25% 17.47% 64.28%-1.35 -13.1 6
2025-09-12 Linfield D 1-155.7 1255 1287 41.36% 18.61% 40.03%+0.03 -0.1 17
2025-09-12 @ Glentoran D 1-155.7 1287 1255 40.03% 18.61% 41.36%-0.03 +0.1 10
2025-09-13 Ballymena United W 3-250.1 1173 1160 47.55% 18.53% 33.92%+0.34 +7.4 11
2025-09-13 @ Cliftonville L 2-350.1 1160 1173 33.92% 18.53% 47.55%-0.34 -7.4 9
2025-09-13 Crusaders L 0-336.8 1094 1107 43.99% 18.59% 37.42%+0.16 -28.1 3
2025-09-13 @ Dungannon Swifts W 3-036.8 1107 1094 37.42% 18.59% 43.99%-0.16 +28.1 6
2025-09-13 Glenavon W 1-032.7 1261 1049 69.12% 16.78% 14.10%+1.73 +3.7 13
2025-09-13 @ Larne L 0-132.7 1049 1261 14.10% 16.78% 69.12%-1.73 -3.7 0
2025-09-13 Coleraine L 1-437.6 1105 1233 28.59% 18.34% 53.07%-0.64 -16.5 6
2025-09-13 @ Portadown W 4-137.6 1233 1105 53.07% 18.34% 28.59%+0.64 +16.5 16
2025-09-16 Linfield W 1-045.3 1153 1287 27.86% 18.31% 53.83%-0.68 +12.3 12
2025-09-16 @ Ballymena United L 0-145.3 1287 1153 53.83% 18.31% 27.86%+0.68 -12.2 10
2025-09-16 Crusaders W 4-029.1 1265 1135 61.59% 17.76% 20.65%+1.16 +19.1 16
2025-09-16 @ Larne L 0-429.1 1135 1265 20.65% 17.76% 61.59%-1.16 -19.1 6
2025-09-19 Glentoran L 1-248.4 1249 1255 45.07% 18.58% 36.35%+0.22 -9.9 16
2025-09-19 @ Coleraine W 2-148.4 1255 1249 36.35% 18.58% 45.07%-0.22 +9.9 20
2025-09-19 Bangor L 1-443.1 1088 1079 47.09% 18.54% 34.37%+0.32 -25.1 6
2025-09-19 @ Portadown W 4-143.1 1079 1088 34.37% 18.54% 47.09%-0.32 +25.1 9
2025-09-20 Ballymena United D 1-155.1 1116 1165 38.92% 18.60% 42.48%-0.09 +0.2 7
2025-09-20 @ Crusaders D 1-155.1 1165 1116 42.48% 18.60% 38.92%+0.09 -0.2 13
2025-09-20 Cliftonville W 2-149.8 1066 1180 30.22% 18.42% 51.36%-0.54 +11.1 6
2025-09-20 @ Dungannon Swifts L 1-249.8 1180 1066 51.36% 18.42% 30.22%+0.54 -11.1 11
2025-09-20 Carrick Rangers W 2-031.1 1284 1127 64.32% 17.47% 18.21%+1.35 +9.0 19
2025-09-20 @ Larne L 0-231.1 1127 1284 18.21% 17.47% 64.32%-1.35 -9.0 10
2025-09-20 Glenavon W 2-029.1 1275 1046 70.52% 16.53% 12.95%+1.86 +6.5 13
2025-09-20 @ Linfield L 0-229.1 1046 1275 12.95% 16.53% 70.52%-1.86 -6.5 0
2025-09-26 Linfield L 0-330.5 1104 1281 23.17% 18.00% 58.84%-0.98 -16.3 9
2025-09-26 @ Bangor W 3-030.5 1281 1104 58.84% 18.00% 23.17%+0.98 +16.3 16
2025-09-27 Dungannon Swifts L 0-242.8 1165 1077 57.14% 18.12% 24.74%+0.87 -24.4 13
2025-09-27 @ Ballymena United W 2-042.8 1077 1165 24.74% 18.12% 57.14%-0.87 +24.4 9
2025-09-27 Portadown L 1-252.0 1169 1063 59.11% 17.97% 22.92%+1.00 -12.6 11
2025-09-27 @ Cliftonville W 2-152.0 1063 1169 22.92% 17.97% 59.11%-1.00 +12.6 9
2025-09-27 Carrick Rangers W 2-140.8 1239 1118 60.76% 17.84% 21.40%+1.10 +5.2 19
2025-09-27 @ Coleraine L 1-240.8 1118 1239 21.40% 17.84% 60.76%-1.10 -5.2 10
2025-09-27 Crusaders L 0-236.3 1039 1116 35.06% 18.56% 46.38%-0.28 -16.1 0
2025-09-27 @ Glenavon W 2-036.3 1116 1039 46.38% 18.56% 35.06%+0.28 +16.0 10
2025-10-04 Coleraine W 2-151.4 1088 1245 25.35% 18.16% 56.49%-0.83 +12.1 12
2025-10-04 @ Bangor L 1-251.4 1245 1088 56.49% 18.16% 25.35%+0.83 -12.1 19
2025-10-04 Ballymena United L 1-247.1 1113 1141 41.95% 18.60% 39.45%+0.06 -9.3 10
2025-10-04 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-147.1 1141 1113 39.45% 18.60% 41.95%-0.06 +9.3 16
2025-10-04 Larne W 2-043.9 1101 1293 21.70% 17.86% 60.43%-1.08 +25.8 12
2025-10-04 @ Dungannon Swifts L 0-243.9 1293 1101 60.43% 17.86% 21.70%+1.08 -25.8 19
2025-10-04 Glenavon W 3-140.2 1076 1023 52.80% 18.36% 28.85%+0.62 +11.8 12
2025-10-04 @ Portadown L 1-340.2 1023 1076 28.85% 18.36% 52.80%-0.62 -11.8 0
2025-10-11 Coleraine L 1-342.1 1150 1232 34.35% 18.54% 47.11%-0.32 -13.7 16
2025-10-11 @ Ballymena United W 3-142.1 1232 1150 47.11% 18.54% 34.35%+0.32 +13.7 22
2025-10-11 Portadown W 1-039.0 1103 1087 48.06% 18.52% 33.42%+0.37 +8.2 13
2025-10-11 @ Carrick Rangers L 0-139.0 1087 1103 33.42% 18.52% 48.06%-0.37 -8.2 12
2025-10-11 Glentoran W 3-148.0 1127 1265 27.40% 18.28% 54.31%-0.71 +20.2 15
2025-10-11 @ Dungannon Swifts L 1-348.0 1265 1127 54.31% 18.28% 27.40%+0.71 -20.2 20
2025-10-11 Bangor L 0-333.6 1011 1100 33.50% 18.52% 47.98%-0.36 -22.4 0
2025-10-11 @ Glenavon W 3-033.6 1100 1011 47.98% 18.52% 33.50%+0.36 +22.4 15
2025-10-17 Linfield W 2-044.6 1079 1298 19.23% 17.60% 63.18%-1.27 +26.9 15
2025-10-17 @ Portadown L 0-244.6 1298 1079 63.18% 17.60% 19.23%+1.27 -26.9 16
2025-10-18 Crusaders W 2-145.5 1123 1132 44.53% 18.58% 36.88%+0.19 +8.4 18
2025-10-18 @ Bangor L 1-245.5 1132 1123 36.88% 18.58% 44.53%-0.19 -8.4 10
2025-10-18 Larne L 0-235.2 1156 1267 30.72% 18.44% 50.85%-0.51 -14.4 11
2025-10-18 @ Cliftonville W 2-035.2 1267 1156 50.85% 18.44% 30.72%+0.51 +14.3 22
2025-10-18 Dungannon Swifts W 4-030.0 1246 1147 58.35% 18.03% 23.62%+0.95 +21.6 25
2025-10-18 @ Coleraine L 0-430.0 1147 1246 23.62% 18.03% 58.35%-0.95 -21.6 15
2025-10-18 Carrick Rangers W 1-044.6 989 1112 29.24% 18.37% 52.39%-0.60 +12.0 3
2025-10-18 @ Glenavon L 0-144.6 1112 989 52.39% 18.37% 29.24%+0.60 -12.0 13
2025-10-18 Ballymena United W 2-032.5 1245 1136 59.37% 17.95% 22.68%+1.01 +11.0 23
2025-10-18 @ Glentoran L 0-232.5 1136 1245 22.68% 17.95% 59.37%-1.01 -11.0 16
2025-10-25 Cliftonville L 0-140.9 1100 1142 39.88% 18.61% 41.51%-0.04 -9.5 13
2025-10-25 @ Carrick Rangers W 1-040.9 1142 1100 41.51% 18.61% 39.88%+0.04 +9.5 14
2025-10-25 Glentoran L 2-348.3 1124 1256 28.16% 18.32% 53.52%-0.66 -6.3 10
2025-10-25 @ Crusaders W 3-248.3 1256 1124 53.52% 18.32% 28.16%+0.66 +6.3 26
2025-10-25 Glenavon W 1-035.0 1125 1001 61.08% 17.81% 21.11%+1.12 +5.5 18
2025-10-25 @ Dungannon Swifts L 0-135.0 1001 1125 21.11% 17.81% 61.08%-1.12 -5.5 3
2025-10-25 Bangor D 1-155.6 1281 1131 63.69% 17.54% 18.77%+1.30 -2.4 23
2025-10-25 @ Larne D 1-155.6 1131 1281 18.77% 17.54% 63.69%-1.30 +2.4 19
2025-10-25 Ballymena United W 2-140.1 1271 1125 63.22% 17.59% 19.19%+1.27 +4.7 19
2025-10-25 @ Linfield L 1-240.1 1125 1271 19.19% 17.59% 63.22%-1.27 -4.7 16
2025-10-25 Coleraine L 0-233.2 1106 1268 24.78% 18.12% 57.10%-0.87 -11.9 15
2025-10-25 @ Portadown W 2-033.2 1268 1106 57.10% 18.12% 24.78%+0.87 +11.9 28
2025-10-28 Linfield D 2-261.7 1280 1276 46.44% 18.55% 35.00%+0.28 -0.4 29
2025-10-28 @ Coleraine D 2-261.7 1276 1280 35.00% 18.55% 46.44%-0.28 +0.4 20
2025-10-31 Carrick Rangers L 0-144.4 1134 1090 51.65% 18.41% 29.95%+0.56 -11.8 19
2025-10-31 @ Bangor W 1-044.4 1090 1134 29.95% 18.41% 51.65%-0.56 +11.8 16
2025-10-31 Portadown W 2-139.4 1262 1094 65.35% 17.34% 17.31%+1.43 +4.3 29
2025-10-31 @ Glentoran L 1-239.4 1094 1262 17.31% 17.34% 65.35%-1.43 -4.3 15
2025-11-01 Larne L 0-233.4 1121 1279 25.15% 18.15% 56.71%-0.85 -12.0 16
2025-11-01 @ Ballymena United W 2-033.4 1279 1121 56.71% 18.15% 25.15%+0.85 +12.0 26
2025-11-01 Glenavon W 5-129.3 1279 996 74.36% 15.69% 9.95%+2.24 +7.8 32
2025-11-01 @ Coleraine L 1-529.3 996 1279 9.95% 15.69% 74.36%-2.24 -7.8 3
2025-11-01 Crusaders W 2-035.9 1131 1118 47.67% 18.53% 33.81%+0.35 +15.6 21
2025-11-01 @ Dungannon Swifts L 0-235.9 1118 1131 33.81% 18.53% 47.67%-0.35 -15.6 10
2025-11-02 Linfield D 0-051.0 1152 1276 29.02% 18.36% 52.62%-0.61 +1.4 15
2025-11-02 @ Cliftonville D 0-051.0 1276 1152 52.62% 18.36% 29.02%+0.61 -1.4 21
2025-11-07 Portadown W 3-027.7 1291 1090 68.26% 16.92% 14.82%+1.66 +10.7 29
2025-11-07 @ Larne L 0-327.7 1090 1291 14.82% 16.92% 68.26%-1.66 -10.7 15
2025-11-08 Ballymena United L 2-354.1 1122 1109 47.67% 18.53% 33.80%+0.35 -9.8 19
2025-11-08 @ Bangor W 3-254.1 1109 1122 33.80% 18.53% 47.67%-0.35 +9.8 19
2025-11-08 Crusaders L 1-248.2 1102 1102 45.86% 18.56% 35.58%+0.25 -10.0 16
2025-11-08 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-148.2 1102 1102 35.58% 18.56% 45.86%-0.25 +10.0 13
2025-11-08 Dungannon Swifts W 2-036.2 1153 1146 46.77% 18.55% 34.68%+0.30 +15.9 18
2025-11-08 @ Cliftonville L 0-236.2 1146 1153 34.68% 18.55% 46.77%-0.30 -15.9 21
2025-11-08 Glentoran W 3-151.8 988 1266 14.52% 16.86% 68.61%-1.69 +25.2 6
2025-11-08 @ Glenavon L 1-351.8 1266 988 68.61% 16.86% 14.52%+1.69 -25.2 29
2025-11-08 Coleraine D 1-155.8 1275 1287 44.15% 18.59% 37.26%+0.17 -0.3 22
2025-11-08 @ Linfield D 1-155.8 1287 1275 37.26% 18.59% 44.15%-0.17 +0.4 33
2025-11-15 Glenavon W 4-135.9 1112 1013 58.37% 18.03% 23.60%+0.95 +14.0 16
2025-11-15 @ Crusaders L 1-435.9 1013 1112 23.60% 18.03% 58.37%-0.95 -13.9 6
2025-11-15 Bangor D 1-155.1 1079 1112 41.28% 18.61% 40.11%+0.03 -0.1 16
2025-11-15 @ Portadown D 1-155.1 1112 1079 40.11% 18.61% 41.28%-0.03 +0.1 20
2025-11-21 Dungannon Swifts L 0-146.8 1241 1130 59.61% 17.93% 22.45%+1.03 -13.5 29
2025-11-21 @ Glentoran W 1-046.8 1130 1241 22.45% 17.93% 59.61%-1.03 +13.5 24
2025-11-21 Glenavon W 2-136.3 1302 999 75.55% 15.38% 9.07%+2.37 +2.2 32
2025-11-21 @ Larne L 1-236.3 999 1302 9.07% 15.38% 75.55%-2.37 -2.3 6
2025-11-22 Crusaders D 2-261.0 1118 1126 44.81% 18.58% 36.61%+0.20 -0.3 20
2025-11-22 @ Ballymena United D 2-261.0 1126 1118 36.61% 18.58% 44.81%-0.20 +0.3 17
2025-11-22 Linfield L 0-136.4 1112 1274 24.70% 18.11% 57.18%-0.88 -6.3 20
2025-11-22 @ Bangor W 1-036.4 1274 1112 57.18% 18.11% 24.70%+0.88 +6.3 25
2025-11-22 Portadown L 1-248.7 1092 1079 47.63% 18.53% 33.84%+0.35 -10.4 16
2025-11-22 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-148.7 1079 1092 33.84% 18.53% 47.63%-0.35 +10.4 19
2025-11-22 Coleraine W 1-044.7 1169 1287 29.73% 18.40% 51.88%-0.57 +11.9 21
2025-11-22 @ Cliftonville L 0-144.7 1287 1169 51.88% 18.40% 29.73%+0.57 -11.9 33
2025-11-25 Crusaders W 1-034.3 1281 1126 64.06% 17.50% 18.44%+1.33 +4.8 28
2025-11-25 @ Linfield L 0-134.3 1126 1281 18.44% 17.50% 64.06%-1.33 -4.8 17
2025-11-25 Larne L 1-247.8 1276 1304 41.90% 18.61% 39.50%+0.06 -9.3 33
2025-11-25 @ Coleraine W 2-147.8 1304 1276 39.50% 18.61% 41.90%-0.06 +9.3 35
2025-11-28 Glentoran D 1-155.2 1106 1228 29.31% 18.38% 52.31%-0.59 +1.2 21
2025-11-28 @ Bangor D 1-155.2 1228 1106 52.31% 18.38% 29.31%+0.59 -1.2 30
2025-11-29 Coleraine L 0-233.8 1122 1266 26.66% 18.24% 55.10%-0.75 -12.7 17
2025-11-29 @ Crusaders W 2-033.8 1266 1122 55.10% 18.24% 26.66%+0.75 +12.7 36
2025-11-29 Larne L 1-241.8 1144 1313 23.97% 18.06% 57.97%-0.92 -5.8 24
2025-11-29 @ Dungannon Swifts W 2-141.8 1313 1144 57.97% 18.06% 23.97%+0.92 +5.8 38
2025-11-29 Ballymena United W 3-147.3 997 1118 29.37% 18.38% 52.25%-0.59 +19.5 9
2025-11-29 @ Glenavon L 1-347.3 1118 997 52.25% 18.38% 29.37%+0.59 -19.5 20
2025-11-29 Carrick Rangers W 3-135.7 1285 1082 68.49% 16.88% 14.62%+1.68 +6.3 31
2025-11-29 @ Linfield L 1-335.7 1082 1285 14.62% 16.88% 68.49%-1.68 -6.3 16
2025-11-29 Cliftonville L 2-349.8 1090 1181 33.20% 18.51% 48.29%-0.38 -7.3 19
2025-11-29 @ Portadown W 3-249.8 1181 1090 48.29% 18.51% 33.20%+0.38 +7.3 24
2025-12-05 Linfield D 0-051.7 1319 1292 49.56% 18.48% 31.96%+0.45 -1.0 39
2025-12-05 @ Larne D 0-051.7 1292 1319 31.96% 18.48% 49.56%-0.45 +1.0 32
2025-12-06 Dungannon Swifts L 1-246.6 1099 1138 40.29% 18.61% 41.10%-0.02 -9.0 20
2025-12-06 @ Ballymena United W 2-146.6 1138 1099 41.10% 18.61% 40.29%+0.02 +9.0 27
2025-12-06 Carrick Rangers W 3-135.7 1279 1075 68.48% 16.89% 14.63%+1.68 +6.3 39
2025-12-06 @ Coleraine L 1-335.7 1075 1279 14.63% 16.89% 68.48%-1.68 -6.3 16
2025-12-06 Portadown L 0-437.8 1109 1082 49.48% 18.48% 32.04%+0.44 -40.7 17
2025-12-06 @ Crusaders W 4-037.8 1082 1109 32.04% 18.48% 49.48%-0.44 +40.7 22
2025-12-06 Bangor L 1-244.4 1016 1107 33.25% 18.51% 48.23%-0.38 -7.7 9
2025-12-06 @ Glenavon W 2-144.4 1107 1016 48.23% 18.51% 33.25%+0.38 +7.7 24
2025-12-06 Cliftonville D 2-261.2 1226 1188 51.02% 18.43% 30.55%+0.52 -0.8 31
2025-12-06 @ Glentoran D 2-261.2 1188 1226 30.55% 18.43% 51.02%-0.52 +0.8 25
2025-12-12 Bangor W 2-030.7 1285 1115 65.62% 17.30% 17.08%+1.45 +8.5 42
2025-12-12 @ Coleraine L 0-230.7 1115 1285 17.08% 17.30% 65.62%-1.45 -8.5 24
2025-12-12 Glentoran W 1-036.7 1318 1226 57.57% 18.09% 24.34%+0.90 +6.2 42
2025-12-12 @ Larne L 0-136.7 1226 1318 24.34% 18.09% 57.57%-0.90 -6.2 31
2025-12-13 Dungannon Swifts D 3-365.2 1069 1147 34.92% 18.55% 46.53%-0.29 +0.4 17
2025-12-13 @ Carrick Rangers D 3-365.2 1147 1069 46.53% 18.55% 34.92%+0.29 -0.4 28
2025-12-13 Glenavon W 5-236.3 1189 1008 66.48% 17.19% 16.33%+1.51 +8.6 28
2025-12-13 @ Cliftonville L 2-536.3 1008 1189 16.33% 17.19% 66.48%-1.51 -8.6 9
2025-12-13 Crusaders W 4-026.4 1293 1068 70.15% 16.60% 13.26%+1.82 +12.5 35
2025-12-13 @ Linfield L 0-426.4 1068 1293 13.26% 16.60% 70.15%-1.82 -12.5 17
2025-12-13 Ballymena United W 1-038.3 1123 1090 50.35% 18.45% 31.20%+0.49 +7.7 25
2025-12-13 @ Portadown L 0-138.3 1090 1123 31.20% 18.45% 50.35%-0.49 -7.7 20
2025-12-19 Coleraine W 2-148.7 1219 1294 35.45% 18.56% 45.99%-0.26 +10.0 34
2025-12-19 @ Glentoran L 1-248.7 1294 1219 45.99% 18.56% 35.45%+0.26 -10.1 42
2025-12-20 Carrick Rangers D 1-155.1 1082 1069 47.60% 18.53% 33.87%+0.34 -0.7 21
2025-12-20 @ Ballymena United D 1-155.1 1069 1082 33.87% 18.53% 47.60%-0.34 +0.7 18
2025-12-20 Cliftonville D 1-155.2 1106 1197 33.19% 18.51% 48.30%-0.38 +0.8 25
2025-12-20 @ Bangor D 1-155.2 1197 1106 48.30% 18.51% 33.19%+0.38 -0.8 29
2025-12-20 Larne L 0-133.2 1056 1324 15.24% 17.00% 67.76%-1.62 -4.0 17
2025-12-20 @ Crusaders W 1-033.2 1324 1056 67.76% 17.00% 15.24%+1.62 +4.0 45
2025-12-20 Portadown W 4-245.9 1147 1131 48.08% 18.52% 33.40%+0.37 +11.9 31
2025-12-20 @ Dungannon Swifts L 2-445.9 1131 1147 33.40% 18.52% 48.08%-0.37 -11.9 25
2025-12-20 Linfield W 2-155.1 1000 1305 12.79% 16.49% 70.72%-1.87 +15.0 12
2025-12-20 @ Glenavon L 1-255.1 1305 1000 70.72% 16.49% 12.79%+1.87 -15.0 35
2025-12-26 Coleraine W 2-044.1 1081 1284 20.68% 17.76% 61.56%-1.16 +26.2 24
2025-12-26 @ Ballymena United L 0-244.1 1284 1081 61.56% 17.76% 20.68%+1.16 -26.2 42
2025-12-26 Larne L 1-239.0 1070 1328 16.00% 17.13% 66.87%-1.54 -4.0 18
2025-12-26 @ Carrick Rangers W 2-139.0 1328 1070 66.87% 17.13% 16.00%+1.54 +4.0 48
2025-12-26 Crusaders L 1-253.1 1197 1052 63.16% 17.60% 19.25%+1.27 -13.4 29
2025-12-26 @ Cliftonville W 2-153.1 1052 1197 19.25% 17.60% 63.16%-1.27 +13.4 20
2025-12-26 Bangor W 1-037.6 1159 1107 52.73% 18.36% 28.91%+0.62 +7.2 34
2025-12-26 @ Dungannon Swifts L 0-137.6 1107 1159 28.91% 18.36% 52.73%-0.62 -7.2 25
2025-12-26 Glentoran L 0-145.5 1290 1230 53.83% 18.31% 27.86%+0.68 -12.3 35
2025-12-26 @ Linfield W 1-045.5 1230 1290 27.86% 18.31% 53.83%-0.68 +12.3 37
2025-12-26 Glenavon W 1-035.7 1119 1015 58.87% 17.99% 23.14%+0.98 +5.9 28
2025-12-26 @ Portadown L 0-135.7 1015 1119 23.14% 17.99% 58.87%-0.98 -5.9 12
2025-12-30 Ballymena United W 2-036.8 1100 1107 44.79% 18.58% 36.62%+0.20 +16.6 28
2025-12-30 @ Bangor L 0-236.8 1107 1100 36.62% 18.58% 44.79%-0.20 -16.7 24
2025-12-30 Linfield W 3-143.8 1257 1278 43.00% 18.60% 38.40%+0.11 +15.0 45
2025-12-30 @ Coleraine L 1-343.8 1278 1257 38.40% 18.60% 43.00%-0.11 -15.0 35
2025-12-30 Carrick Rangers D 2-261.0 1065 1066 45.75% 18.57% 35.69%+0.25 -0.4 21
2025-12-30 @ Crusaders D 2-261.0 1066 1065 35.69% 18.57% 45.75%-0.25 +0.4 19
2025-12-30 Dungannon Swifts L 0-136.4 1009 1166 25.27% 18.15% 56.57%-0.84 -6.4 12
2025-12-30 @ Glenavon W 1-036.4 1166 1009 56.57% 18.15% 25.27%+0.84 +6.4 37
2025-12-30 Portadown W 2-140.9 1242 1125 60.31% 17.87% 21.81%+1.07 +5.3 40
2025-12-30 @ Glentoran L 1-240.9 1125 1242 21.81% 17.87% 60.31%-1.07 -5.3 28
2025-12-30 Cliftonville D 0-051.5 1332 1183 63.57% 17.55% 18.88%+1.30 -2.7 49
2025-12-30 @ Larne D 0-051.5 1183 1332 18.88% 17.55% 63.57%-1.30 +2.7 30
2026-01-02 Coleraine W 3-032.9 1329 1272 53.37% 18.33% 28.30%+0.65 +19.4 52
2026-01-02 @ Larne L 0-332.9 1272 1329 28.30% 18.33% 53.37%-0.65 -19.4 45
2026-01-03 Glentoran L 0-731.3 1067 1247 22.80% 17.96% 59.23%-1.00 -35.5 19
2026-01-03 @ Carrick Rangers W 7-031.3 1247 1067 59.23% 17.96% 22.80%+1.00 +35.5 43
2026-01-03 Dungannon Swifts W 2-040.9 1065 1172 31.08% 18.45% 50.47%-0.49 +21.8 24
2026-01-03 @ Crusaders L 0-240.9 1172 1065 50.47% 18.45% 31.08%+0.49 -21.8 37
2026-01-03 Bangor W 6-131.7 1263 1116 63.34% 17.58% 19.08%+1.28 +18.2 38
2026-01-03 @ Linfield L 1-631.7 1116 1263 19.08% 17.58% 63.34%-1.28 -18.1 28
2026-01-13 Linfield D 0-051.2 1031 1281 16.61% 17.23% 66.16%-1.49 +3.0 20
2026-01-13 @ Carrick Rangers D 0-051.2 1281 1031 66.16% 17.23% 16.61%+1.49 -3.0 39
2026-01-13 Larne L 1-441.1 1283 1349 36.53% 18.58% 44.89%-0.21 -20.3 43
2026-01-13 @ Glentoran W 4-141.1 1349 1283 44.89% 18.58% 36.53%+0.21 +20.4 55
2026-01-13 Cliftonville D 2-261.1 1091 1186 32.69% 18.50% 48.81%-0.41 +0.6 25
2026-01-13 @ Ballymena United D 2-261.1 1186 1091 48.81% 18.50% 32.69%+0.41 -0.6 31
2026-01-16 Larne D 0-052.0 1278 1369 33.21% 18.51% 48.28%-0.38 +0.9 40
2026-01-16 @ Linfield D 0-052.0 1369 1278 48.28% 18.51% 33.21%+0.38 -0.9 56
2026-01-17 Portadown W 1-040.5 1098 1119 42.91% 18.60% 38.49%+0.11 +9.2 31
2026-01-17 @ Bangor L 0-140.5 1119 1098 38.49% 18.60% 42.91%-0.11 -9.2 28
2026-01-17 Carrick Rangers L 1-447.8 1185 1034 63.78% 17.53% 18.69%+1.31 -33.2 31
2026-01-17 @ Cliftonville W 4-147.8 1034 1185 18.69% 17.53% 63.78%-1.31 +33.2 23
2026-01-17 Crusaders W 5-132.1 1253 1087 65.22% 17.36% 17.42%+1.42 +13.6 48
2026-01-17 @ Coleraine L 1-532.1 1087 1253 17.42% 17.36% 65.22%-1.42 -13.6 24
2026-01-17 Ballymena United W 2-034.1 1151 1091 53.64% 18.32% 28.05%+0.67 +13.3 40
2026-01-17 @ Dungannon Swifts L 0-234.1 1091 1151 28.05% 18.32% 53.64%-0.67 -13.3 25
2026-01-17 Glentoran L 1-238.8 1003 1262 15.88% 17.11% 67.01%-1.56 -3.9 12
2026-01-17 @ Glenavon W 2-138.8 1262 1003 67.01% 17.11% 15.88%+1.56 +3.9 46
2026-01-23 Glenavon W 2-028.2 1267 999 73.32% 15.94% 10.74%+2.13 +5.4 51
2026-01-23 @ Coleraine L 0-228.2 999 1267 10.74% 15.94% 73.32%-2.13 -5.4 12
2026-01-23 Bangor W 2-137.4 1368 1107 72.83% 16.05% 11.12%+2.08 +2.8 59
2026-01-23 @ Larne L 1-237.4 1107 1368 11.12% 16.05% 72.83%-2.08 -2.8 31
2026-01-24 Dungannon Swifts W 5-141.8 1067 1164 32.49% 18.49% 49.02%-0.42 +33.6 26
2026-01-24 @ Carrick Rangers L 1-541.8 1164 1067 49.02% 18.49% 32.49%+0.42 -33.6 40
2026-01-24 Linfield L 0-134.9 1073 1279 20.35% 17.73% 61.93%-1.18 -5.3 24
2026-01-24 @ Crusaders W 1-034.9 1279 1073 61.93% 17.73% 20.35%+1.18 +5.3 43
2026-01-31 Coleraine L 0-233.0 1105 1272 24.16% 18.07% 57.76%-0.91 -11.6 31
2026-01-31 @ Bangor W 2-033.0 1272 1105 57.76% 18.07% 24.16%+0.91 +11.6 54
2026-01-31 Larne L 2-439.4 1068 1371 12.91% 16.52% 70.57%-1.86 -5.0 24
2026-01-31 @ Crusaders W 4-239.4 1371 1068 70.57% 16.52% 12.91%+1.86 +5.0 62
2026-01-31 Glentoran L 0-234.2 1130 1266 27.66% 18.30% 54.04%-0.69 -13.1 40
2026-01-31 @ Dungannon Swifts W 2-034.2 1266 1130 54.04% 18.30% 27.66%+0.69 +13.1 49
2026-01-31 Cliftonville W 2-151.3 993 1152 25.08% 18.14% 56.78%-0.85 +12.1 15
2026-01-31 @ Glenavon L 1-251.3 1152 993 56.78% 18.14% 25.08%+0.85 -12.1 31
2026-01-31 Ballymena United W 2-138.4 1284 1078 68.68% 16.85% 14.46%+1.69 +3.6 46
2026-01-31 @ Linfield L 1-238.4 1078 1284 14.46% 16.85% 68.68%-1.69 -3.6 25
2026-01-31 Carrick Rangers L 0-337.7 1110 1101 47.15% 18.54% 34.31%+0.32 -29.8 28
2026-01-31 @ Portadown W 3-037.7 1101 1110 34.31% 18.54% 47.15%-0.32 +29.8 29
2026-02-03 Bangor W 3-249.0 1131 1093 50.93% 18.43% 30.64%+0.52 +6.8 32
2026-02-03 @ Carrick Rangers L 2-349.0 1093 1131 30.64% 18.43% 50.93%-0.52 -6.8 31
2026-02-10 Glenavon W 2-140.3 1138 1005 61.88% 17.73% 20.39%+1.18 +5.0 35
2026-02-10 @ Carrick Rangers L 1-240.3 1005 1138 20.39% 17.73% 61.88%-1.18 -5.0 15
2026-02-10 Bangor W 3-140.2 1140 1086 52.96% 18.35% 28.69%+0.63 +11.7 34
2026-02-10 @ Cliftonville L 1-340.2 1086 1140 28.69% 18.35% 52.96%-0.63 -11.7 31
2026-02-10 Portadown W 2-138.5 1284 1080 68.45% 16.89% 14.66%+1.67 +3.6 57
2026-02-10 @ Coleraine L 1-238.5 1080 1284 14.66% 16.89% 68.45%-1.67 -3.6 28
2026-02-10 Glentoran D 2-262.5 1376 1279 58.08% 18.05% 23.86%+0.93 -1.4 63
2026-02-10 @ Larne D 2-262.5 1279 1376 23.86% 18.05% 58.08%-0.93 +1.4 50
2026-02-10 Dungannon Swifts W 6-028.9 1288 1117 65.61% 17.30% 17.08%+1.45 +23.5 49
2026-02-10 @ Linfield L 0-628.9 1117 1288 17.08% 17.30% 65.61%-1.45 -23.5 40
2026-02-13 Cliftonville W 3-253.0 1094 1152 37.69% 18.59% 43.71%-0.15 +9.1 43
2026-02-13 @ Dungannon Swifts L 2-353.0 1152 1094 43.71% 18.59% 37.69%+0.15 -9.1 34
2026-02-14 Coleraine D 1-155.4 1142 1287 26.64% 18.24% 55.12%-0.75 +1.5 36
2026-02-14 @ Carrick Rangers D 1-155.4 1287 1142 55.12% 18.24% 26.64%+0.75 -1.5 58
2026-02-14 Bangor D 2-261.0 1063 1074 44.25% 18.59% 37.16%+0.17 -0.3 25
2026-02-14 @ Crusaders D 2-261.0 1074 1063 37.16% 18.59% 44.25%-0.17 +0.3 32
2026-02-14 Linfield L 0-326.8 1000 1311 12.45% 16.41% 71.14%-1.91 -9.0 15
2026-02-14 @ Glenavon W 3-026.8 1311 1000 71.14% 16.41% 12.45%+1.91 +9.0 52
2026-02-14 Ballymena United W 2-138.4 1281 1075 68.68% 16.85% 14.47%+1.69 +3.6 53
2026-02-14 @ Glentoran L 1-238.4 1075 1281 14.47% 16.85% 68.68%-1.69 -3.6 25
2026-02-14 Larne W 2-155.2 1077 1375 13.24% 16.59% 70.16%-1.82 +14.9 31
2026-02-14 @ Portadown L 1-255.2 1375 1077 70.16% 16.59% 13.24%+1.82 -14.9 63
2026-02-17 Linfield L 1-434.7 1103 1320 19.31% 17.61% 63.08%-1.26 -11.6 43
2026-02-17 @ Dungannon Swifts W 4-134.7 1320 1103 63.08% 17.61% 19.31%+1.26 +11.6 55
2026-02-17 Crusaders W 2-036.1 1071 1062 47.04% 18.54% 34.41%+0.32 +15.8 28
2026-02-17 @ Ballymena United L 0-236.1 1062 1071 34.41% 18.54% 47.04%-0.32 -15.8 25
2026-02-20 Ballymena United W 1-033.1 1286 1087 68.09% 16.95% 14.96%+1.64 +4.0 61
2026-02-20 @ Coleraine L 0-133.1 1087 1286 14.96% 16.95% 68.09%-1.64 -3.9 28
2026-02-20 Carrick Rangers L 2-360.5 1360 1144 69.48% 16.72% 13.80%+1.76 -14.0 63
2026-02-20 @ Larne W 3-260.5 1144 1360 13.80% 16.72% 69.48%-1.76 +14.0 39
2026-02-21 Glenavon L 1-348.5 1075 991 56.54% 18.16% 25.30%+0.84 -21.0 32
2026-02-21 @ Bangor W 3-148.5 991 1075 25.30% 18.16% 56.54%-0.84 +20.9 18
2026-02-21 Crusaders W 5-238.9 1142 1047 57.97% 18.06% 23.97%+0.92 +12.2 37
2026-02-21 @ Cliftonville L 2-538.9 1047 1142 23.97% 18.06% 57.97%-0.92 -12.2 25
2026-02-21 Glentoran W 1-038.7 1332 1284 52.20% 18.38% 29.42%+0.59 +7.3 58
2026-02-21 @ Linfield L 0-138.7 1284 1332 29.42% 18.38% 52.20%-0.59 -7.3 53
2026-02-21 Dungannon Swifts W 1-039.6 1092 1091 45.92% 18.56% 35.52%+0.26 +8.6 34
2026-02-21 @ Portadown L 0-139.6 1091 1092 35.52% 18.56% 45.92%-0.26 -8.6 43
2026-02-24 Glentoran L 0-431.9 1155 1277 29.29% 18.38% 52.33%-0.60 -26.1 37
2026-02-24 @ Cliftonville W 4-031.9 1277 1155 52.33% 18.38% 29.29%+0.60 +26.1 56
2026-02-24 Linfield D 1-156.8 1346 1339 46.79% 18.55% 34.66%+0.30 -0.6 64
2026-02-24 @ Larne D 1-156.8 1339 1346 34.66% 18.55% 46.79%-0.30 +0.6 59
2026-02-24 Glenavon D 2-261.1 1083 1012 55.02% 18.25% 26.73%+0.75 -1.1 29
2026-02-24 @ Ballymena United D 2-261.1 1012 1083 26.73% 18.25% 55.02%-0.75 +1.1 19
2026-02-28 Larne L 0-230.2 1082 1345 15.59% 17.06% 67.34%-1.58 -7.7 29
2026-02-28 @ Ballymena United W 2-030.2 1345 1082 67.34% 17.06% 15.59%+1.58 +7.7 67
2026-02-28 Bangor D 1-155.3 1158 1054 58.91% 17.99% 23.10%+0.98 -1.9 40
2026-02-28 @ Carrick Rangers D 1-155.3 1054 1158 23.10% 17.99% 58.91%-0.98 +1.9 33
2026-02-28 Coleraine W 3-150.2 1083 1290 20.25% 17.71% 62.03%-1.19 +22.9 46
2026-02-28 @ Dungannon Swifts L 1-350.2 1290 1083 62.03% 17.71% 20.25%+1.19 -22.9 61
2026-02-28 Portadown W 3-037.9 1013 1100 33.78% 18.53% 47.69%-0.35 +30.1 22
2026-02-28 @ Glenavon L 0-337.9 1100 1013 47.69% 18.53% 33.78%+0.35 -30.1 34
2026-02-28 Crusaders W 5-129.6 1303 1034 73.35% 15.93% 10.71%+2.13 +8.5 59
2026-02-28 @ Glentoran L 1-529.6 1034 1303 10.71% 15.93% 73.35%-2.13 -8.4 25
2026-03-01 Linfield W 2-044.6 1129 1340 19.86% 17.67% 62.46%-1.22 +26.6 40
2026-03-01 @ Cliftonville L 0-244.6 1340 1129 62.46% 17.67% 19.86%+1.22 -26.6 59
2026-03-03 Carrick Rangers W 1-034.4 1311 1156 64.19% 17.48% 18.33%+1.34 +4.8 62
2026-03-03 @ Glentoran L 0-134.4 1156 1311 18.33% 17.48% 64.19%-1.34 -4.8 40
2026-03-04 Cliftonville L 0-236.0 1070 1155 33.98% 18.53% 47.48%-0.34 -15.6 34
2026-03-04 @ Portadown W 2-036.0 1155 1070 47.48% 18.53% 33.98%+0.34 +15.6 43
2026-03-07 Portadown D 1-155.1 1074 1054 48.54% 18.51% 32.95%+0.39 -0.8 30
2026-03-07 @ Ballymena United D 1-155.1 1054 1074 32.95% 18.51% 48.54%-0.39 +0.8 35
2026-03-10 Cliftonville L 0-136.8 1026 1171 26.63% 18.24% 55.12%-0.75 -6.7 25
2026-03-10 @ Crusaders W 1-036.8 1171 1026 55.12% 18.24% 26.63%+0.75 +6.7 46
2026-03-10 Glentoran L 0-427.4 1056 1316 15.81% 17.10% 67.08%-1.56 -14.9 33
2026-03-10 @ Bangor W 4-027.4 1316 1056 67.08% 17.10% 15.81%+1.56 +14.9 65
2026-03-10 Portadown W 3-134.4 1313 1055 72.63% 16.10% 11.27%+2.06 +4.9 62
2026-03-10 @ Linfield L 1-334.4 1055 1313 11.27% 16.10% 72.63%-2.06 -4.9 35
2026-03-13 Dungannon Swifts W 2-137.6 1353 1106 71.88% 16.26% 11.86%+1.98 +3.0 70
2026-03-13 @ Larne L 1-237.6 1106 1353 11.86% 16.26% 71.88%-1.98 -3.0 46
2026-03-14 Carrick Rangers W 2-148.4 1073 1151 34.93% 18.55% 46.51%-0.29 +10.1 33
2026-03-14 @ Ballymena United L 1-248.4 1151 1073 46.51% 18.55% 34.93%+0.29 -10.2 40
2026-03-14 Cliftonville W 1-036.5 1267 1178 57.23% 18.11% 24.66%+0.88 +6.3 64
2026-03-14 @ Coleraine L 0-136.5 1178 1267 24.66% 18.11% 57.23%-0.88 -6.3 46
2026-03-14 Glenavon L 0-336.3 1019 1044 42.47% 18.60% 38.92%+0.09 -27.3 25
2026-03-14 @ Crusaders W 3-036.3 1044 1019 38.92% 18.60% 42.47%-0.09 +27.3 25
2026-03-18 Cliftonville W 3-029.1 1331 1171 64.61% 17.43% 17.96%+1.37 +12.8 68
2026-03-18 @ Glentoran L 0-329.1 1171 1331 17.96% 17.43% 64.61%-1.37 -12.8 46
2026-03-20 Linfield W 2-043.5 1141 1318 23.16% 17.99% 58.85%-0.98 +25.1 43
2026-03-20 @ Carrick Rangers L 0-243.5 1318 1141 58.85% 17.99% 23.16%+0.98 -25.1 62
2026-03-20 Larne L 0-327.5 1071 1356 14.08% 16.78% 69.14%-1.73 -10.2 25
2026-03-20 @ Glenavon W 3-027.5 1356 1071 69.14% 16.78% 14.08%+1.73 +10.2 73
2026-03-21 Ballymena United D 2-261.1 1158 1083 55.56% 18.22% 26.22%+0.78 -1.2 47
2026-03-21 @ Cliftonville D 2-261.1 1083 1158 26.22% 18.22% 55.56%-0.78 +1.2 34
2026-03-21 Bangor L 0-145.0 1103 1041 53.95% 18.30% 27.74%+0.69 -12.3 46
2026-03-21 @ Dungannon Swifts W 1-045.0 1041 1103 27.74% 18.30% 53.95%-0.69 +12.3 36
2026-03-21 Coleraine D 1-156.2 1344 1273 55.06% 18.24% 26.69%+0.75 -1.5 69
2026-03-21 @ Glentoran D 1-156.2 1273 1344 26.69% 18.24% 55.06%-0.75 +1.5 65
2026-03-21 Crusaders D 0-050.8 1050 992 53.53% 18.32% 28.14%+0.66 -1.5 36
2026-03-21 @ Portadown D 0-050.8 992 1050 28.14% 18.32% 53.53%-0.66 +1.5 26
2026-04-25 Glentoran W 6-242.0 1348 1358 44.45% 18.59% 36.96%+0.18 +22.5 68
2026-04-25 @ Coleraine L 2-642.0 1358 1348 36.96% 18.59% 44.45%-0.18 -22.5 69
2026-04-25 Dungannon Swifts W 8-026.9 1362 1057 75.66% 15.35% 8.99%+2.38 +16.3 76
2026-04-25 @ Larne L 0-826.9 1057 1362 8.99% 15.35% 75.66%-2.38 -16.3 46
2026-04-25 Cliftonville L 1-252.5 1258 1140 60.45% 17.86% 21.69%+1.08 -12.9 62
2026-04-25 @ Linfield W 2-152.5 1140 1258 21.69% 17.86% 60.45%-1.08 +12.9 50
2026-04-25 Portadown L 2-449.9 1033 1025 46.98% 18.54% 34.48%+0.31 -15.9 36
2026-04-25 @ Bangor W 4-249.9 1025 1033 34.48% 18.54% 46.98%-0.31 +15.9 39
2026-04-25 Ballymena United W 3-252.8 1028 1082 38.18% 18.60% 43.22%-0.12 +9.0 29
2026-04-25 @ Crusaders L 2-352.8 1082 1028 43.22% 18.60% 38.18%+0.12 -9.0 34
2026-04-25 Carrick Rangers L 2-347.9 1049 1190 27.15% 18.27% 54.58%-0.72 -6.1 25
2026-04-25 @ Glenavon W 3-247.9 1190 1049 54.58% 18.27% 27.15%+0.72 +6.1 46

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
2026-03-28 Coleraine L 1-241.1 1090 1275 22.42% 17.93% 59.64%-1.03 -5.4 0
2026-03-28 @ Dungannon Swifts W 2-141.1 1275 1090 59.64% 17.93% 22.42%+1.03 +5.4 3
2026-03-28 Linfield D 1-156.3 1342 1293 52.42% 18.37% 29.21%+0.60 -1.2 1
2026-03-28 @ Glentoran D 1-156.3 1293 1342 29.21% 18.37% 52.42%-0.60 +1.2 1
2026-03-28 Cliftonville W 2-030.0 1366 1157 68.92% 16.81% 14.27%+1.71 +7.1 3
2026-03-28 @ Larne L 0-230.0 1157 1366 14.27% 16.81% 68.92%-1.71 -7.1 0
2026-03-28 Crusaders W 6-130.8 1166 993 65.80% 17.28% 16.92%+1.46 +16.2 3
2026-03-28 @ Carrick Rangers L 1-630.8 993 1166 16.92% 17.28% 65.80%-1.46 -16.2 0
2026-04-04 Portadown D 1-155.1 1061 1049 47.50% 18.53% 33.97%+0.34 -0.7 1
2026-04-04 @ Glenavon D 1-155.1 1049 1061 33.97% 18.53% 47.50%-0.34 +0.7 1
2026-04-07 Glentoran L 1-241.1 1150 1341 21.75% 17.87% 60.38%-1.08 -5.3 0
2026-04-07 @ Cliftonville W 2-141.1 1341 1150 60.38% 17.87% 21.75%+1.08 +5.3 4
2026-04-07 Linfield L 1-337.6 1085 1294 20.03% 17.69% 62.28%-1.20 -8.5 0
2026-04-07 @ Dungannon Swifts W 3-137.6 1294 1085 62.28% 17.69% 20.03%+1.20 +8.5 4
2026-04-07 Coleraine L 1-447.5 1373 1280 57.68% 18.08% 24.24%+0.91 -30.2 3
2026-04-07 @ Larne W 4-147.5 1280 1373 24.24% 18.08% 57.68%-0.91 +30.2 6
2026-04-07 Glenavon D 1-155.1 1084 1060 49.20% 18.49% 32.32%+0.43 -0.9 1
2026-04-07 @ Ballymena United D 1-155.1 1060 1084 32.32% 18.49% 49.20%-0.43 +0.9 2
2026-04-07 Bangor D 1-155.1 977 1053 35.23% 18.56% 46.21%-0.27 +0.6 1
2026-04-07 @ Crusaders D 1-155.1 1053 977 46.21% 18.56% 35.23%+0.27 -0.6 1
2026-04-07 Carrick Rangers D 1-155.2 1050 1182 28.01% 18.32% 53.67%-0.67 +1.3 2
2026-04-07 @ Portadown D 1-155.2 1182 1050 53.67% 18.32% 28.01%+0.67 -1.3 4
2026-04-11 Larne L 0-239.1 1303 1343 40.18% 18.61% 41.22%-0.03 -18.0 4
2026-04-11 @ Linfield W 2-039.1 1343 1303 41.22% 18.61% 40.18%+0.03 +18.0 6
2026-04-11 Cliftonville W 6-234.1 1310 1145 65.13% 17.37% 17.51%+1.41 +11.6 9
2026-04-11 @ Coleraine L 2-634.1 1145 1310 17.51% 17.37% 65.13%-1.41 -11.6 0
2026-04-11 Dungannon Swifts W 5-025.9 1347 1076 73.47% 15.91% 10.63%+2.14 +12.4 7
2026-04-11 @ Glentoran L 0-525.9 1076 1347 10.63% 15.91% 73.47%-2.14 -12.4 0
2026-04-11 Glenavon D 0-050.7 1053 1061 44.72% 18.58% 36.70%+0.20 -0.5 2
2026-04-11 @ Bangor D 0-050.7 1061 1053 36.70% 18.58% 44.72%-0.20 +0.5 3
2026-04-11 Ballymena United L 2-357.1 1181 1084 58.15% 18.05% 23.80%+0.94 -11.8 4
2026-04-11 @ Carrick Rangers W 3-257.1 1084 1181 23.80% 18.05% 58.15%-0.94 +11.8 4
2026-04-11 Portadown W 4-036.7 978 1051 35.61% 18.57% 45.83%-0.25 +38.0 4
2026-04-11 @ Crusaders L 0-436.7 1051 978 45.83% 18.57% 35.61%+0.25 -38.0 2
2026-04-15 Bangor D 0-050.8 1095 1052 51.65% 18.41% 29.95%+0.56 -1.2 5
2026-04-15 @ Ballymena United D 0-050.8 1052 1095 29.95% 18.41% 51.65%-0.56 +1.3 3
2026-04-17 Larne D 0-052.9 1359 1361 45.59% 18.57% 35.84%+0.24 -0.5 8
2026-04-17 @ Glentoran D 0-052.9 1361 1359 35.84% 18.57% 45.59%-0.24 +0.5 7
2026-04-18 Dungannon Swifts W 1-036.9 1133 1064 54.87% 18.25% 26.87%+0.74 +6.8 3
2026-04-18 @ Cliftonville L 0-136.9 1064 1133 26.87% 18.25% 54.87%-0.74 -6.8 0
2026-04-18 Coleraine L 0-336.8 1285 1322 40.65% 18.61% 40.74%+0.00 -26.3 4
2026-04-18 @ Linfield W 3-036.8 1322 1285 40.74% 18.61% 40.65%+0.00 +26.3 12
2026-04-18 Portadown L 1-251.2 1094 1013 56.30% 18.17% 25.52%+0.82 -12.1 5
2026-04-18 @ Ballymena United W 2-151.2 1013 1094 25.52% 18.17% 56.30%-0.82 +12.0 5
2026-04-18 Carrick Rangers L 0-332.6 1053 1169 30.05% 18.41% 51.54%-0.55 -20.4 3
2026-04-18 @ Bangor W 3-032.6 1169 1053 51.54% 18.41% 30.05%+0.55 +20.5 7
2026-04-18 Crusaders L 0-144.4 1061 1016 51.92% 18.39% 29.69%+0.57 -11.9 3
2026-04-18 @ Glenavon W 1-044.4 1016 1061 29.69% 18.39% 51.92%-0.57 +11.9 7

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 2025-12-20 12.79% @ Glenavon 1000 2 Linfield 1305 1
2 2026-02-14 13.24% @ Portadown 1077 2 Larne 1375 1
3 2026-02-20 13.80% Carrick Rangers 1144 3 @ Larne 1360 2
4 2025-11-08 14.52% @ Glenavon 988 3 Glentoran 1266 1
5 2026-01-17 18.69% Carrick Rangers 1034 4 @ Cliftonville 1185 1
6 2025-10-17 19.23% @ Portadown 1079 2 Linfield 1298 0
7 2025-12-26 19.25% Crusaders 1052 2 @ Cliftonville 1197 1
8 2026-03-01 19.86% @ Cliftonville 1129 2 Linfield 1340 0
9 2026-02-28 20.25% @ Dungannon Swifts 1083 3 Coleraine 1290 1
10 2025-12-26 20.68% @ Ballymena United 1081 2 Coleraine 1284 0
11 2026-04-25 21.69% Cliftonville 1140 2 @ Linfield 1258 1
12 2025-10-04 21.70% @ Dungannon Swifts 1101 2 Larne 1293 0
13 2025-11-21 22.45% Dungannon Swifts 1130 1 @ Glentoran 1241 0
14 2025-09-27 22.92% Portadown 1063 2 @ Cliftonville 1169 1
15 2026-03-20 23.16% @ Carrick Rangers 1141 2 Linfield 1318 0
16 2026-04-11 23.80% Ballymena United 1084 3 @ Carrick Rangers 1181 2
17 2026-04-07 24.24% Coleraine 1280 4 @ Larne 1373 1
18 2025-09-27 24.74% Dungannon Swifts 1077 2 @ Ballymena United 1165 0
19 2026-01-31 25.08% @ Glenavon 993 2 Cliftonville 1152 1
20 2026-02-21 25.30% Glenavon 991 3 @ Bangor 1075 1
21 2025-10-04 25.35% @ Bangor 1088 2 Coleraine 1245 1
22 2026-04-18 25.52% Portadown 1013 2 @ Ballymena United 1094 1
23 2025-10-11 27.40% @ Dungannon Swifts 1127 3 Glentoran 1265 1
24 2025-08-09 27.44% Carrick Rangers 1096 4 @ Crusaders 1160 3
25 2026-03-21 27.74% Bangor 1041 1 @ Dungannon Swifts 1103 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-12-06 40.66 Portadown 4 1082 32.04% @ Crusaders 0 1109 49.48% 18.48%
2 2026-04-11 38.03 @ Crusaders 4 978 35.61% Portadown 0 1051 45.83% 18.57%
3 2026-01-03 35.49 Glentoran 7 1247 59.23% @ Carrick Rangers 0 1067 22.80% 17.96%
4 2026-01-24 33.60 @ Carrick Rangers 5 1067 32.49% Dungannon Swifts 1 1164 49.02% 18.49%
5 2026-01-17 33.21 Carrick Rangers 4 1034 18.69% @ Cliftonville 1 1185 63.78% 17.53%
6 2025-09-06 31.99 Coleraine 4 1201 44.22% @ Crusaders 0 1139 37.19% 18.59%
7 2026-04-07 30.18 Coleraine 4 1280 24.24% @ Larne 1 1373 57.68% 18.08%
8 2026-02-28 30.13 @ Glenavon 3 1013 33.78% Portadown 0 1100 47.69% 18.53%
9 2026-01-31 29.84 Carrick Rangers 3 1101 34.31% @ Portadown 0 1110 47.15% 18.54%
10 2025-09-13 28.12 Crusaders 3 1107 37.42% @ Dungannon Swifts 0 1094 43.99% 18.59%
11 2026-03-14 27.31 Glenavon 3 1044 38.92% @ Crusaders 0 1019 42.47% 18.60%
12 2025-10-17 26.87 @ Portadown 2 1079 19.23% Linfield 0 1298 63.18% 17.60%
13 2026-03-01 26.58 @ Cliftonville 2 1129 19.86% Linfield 0 1340 62.46% 17.67%
14 2026-04-18 26.34 Coleraine 3 1322 40.74% @ Linfield 0 1285 40.65% 18.61%
15 2025-12-26 26.21 @ Ballymena United 2 1081 20.68% Coleraine 0 1284 61.56% 17.76%
16 2026-02-24 26.13 Glentoran 4 1277 52.33% @ Cliftonville 0 1155 29.29% 18.38%
17 2025-10-04 25.75 @ Dungannon Swifts 2 1101 21.70% Larne 0 1293 60.43% 17.86%
18 2025-08-16 25.37 Portadown 4 1127 33.87% @ Dungannon Swifts 1 1140 47.60% 18.53%
19 2025-08-23 25.34 @ Ballymena United 4 1166 53.42% Bangor 0 1109 28.25% 18.33%
20 2025-11-08 25.18 @ Glenavon 3 988 14.52% Glentoran 1 1266 68.61% 16.86%
21 2025-09-19 25.13 Bangor 4 1079 34.37% @ Portadown 1 1088 47.09% 18.54%
22 2026-03-20 25.11 @ Carrick Rangers 2 1141 23.16% Linfield 0 1318 58.85% 17.99%
23 2025-09-27 24.43 Dungannon Swifts 2 1077 24.74% @ Ballymena United 0 1165 57.14% 18.12%
24 2026-02-10 23.45 @ Linfield 6 1288 65.61% Dungannon Swifts 0 1117 17.08% 17.30%
25 2025-08-22 23.33 @ Larne 4 1211 56.09% Portadown 0 1132 25.73% 18.18%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2025-12-13 65.2 @ Carrick Rangers 3 1069 34.92% Dungannon Swifts 3 1147 46.53% 18.55%
2 2026-02-10 62.5 @ Larne 2 1376 58.08% Glentoran 2 1279 23.86% 18.05%
3 2025-10-28 61.7 @ Coleraine 2 1280 46.44% Linfield 2 1276 35.00% 18.55%
4 2025-12-06 61.2 @ Glentoran 2 1226 51.02% Cliftonville 2 1188 30.55% 18.43%
5 2026-01-13 61.1 @ Ballymena United 2 1091 32.69% Cliftonville 2 1186 48.81% 18.50%
6 2026-02-24 61.1 @ Ballymena United 2 1083 55.02% Glenavon 2 1012 26.73% 18.25%
7 2026-03-21 61.1 @ Cliftonville 2 1158 55.56% Ballymena United 2 1083 26.22% 18.22%
8 2025-11-22 61.0 @ Ballymena United 2 1118 44.81% Crusaders 2 1126 36.61% 18.58%
9 2025-12-30 61.0 @ Crusaders 2 1065 45.75% Carrick Rangers 2 1066 35.69% 18.57%
10 2026-02-14 61.0 @ Crusaders 2 1063 44.25% Bangor 2 1074 37.16% 18.59%
11 2026-02-20 60.5 Carrick Rangers 3 1144 13.80% @ Larne 2 1360 69.48% 16.72%
12 2025-08-09 58.9 Carrick Rangers 4 1096 27.44% @ Crusaders 3 1160 54.27% 18.29%
13 2026-04-11 57.1 Ballymena United 3 1084 23.80% @ Carrick Rangers 2 1181 58.15% 18.05%
14 2026-02-24 56.8 @ Larne 1 1346 46.79% Linfield 1 1339 34.66% 18.55%
15 2026-03-28 56.3 @ Glentoran 1 1342 52.42% Linfield 1 1293 29.21% 18.37%
16 2026-03-21 56.2 @ Glentoran 1 1344 55.06% Coleraine 1 1273 26.69% 18.24%
17 2025-11-08 55.8 @ Linfield 1 1275 44.15% Coleraine 1 1287 37.26% 18.59%
18 2025-09-12 55.7 @ Glentoran 1 1255 41.36% Linfield 1 1287 40.03% 18.61%
19 2025-10-25 55.6 @ Larne 1 1281 63.69% Bangor 1 1131 18.77% 17.54%
20 2025-08-30 55.4 @ Glentoran 1 1240 59.09% Carrick Rangers 1 1134 22.94% 17.98%
21 2026-02-14 55.4 @ Carrick Rangers 1 1142 26.64% Coleraine 1 1287 55.12% 18.24%
22 2026-02-28 55.3 @ Carrick Rangers 1 1158 58.91% Bangor 1 1054 23.10% 17.99%
23 2025-08-19 55.2 @ Cliftonville 1 1158 38.28% Larne 1 1212 43.12% 18.60%
24 2025-11-28 55.2 @ Bangor 1 1106 29.31% Glentoran 1 1228 52.31% 18.38%
25 2025-12-20 55.2 @ Bangor 1 1106 33.19% Cliftonville 1 1197 48.30% 18.51%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 2026-04-11 25.9 @ Glentoran 5 1347 73.47% Dungannon Swifts 0 1076 10.63% 15.91%
2 2025-12-13 26.4 @ Linfield 4 1293 70.15% Crusaders 0 1068 13.26% 16.60%
3 2026-02-14 26.8 Linfield 3 1311 71.14% @ Glenavon 0 1000 12.45% 16.41%
4 2026-04-25 26.9 @ Larne 8 1362 75.66% Dungannon Swifts 0 1057 8.99% 15.35%
5 2026-03-10 27.4 Glentoran 4 1316 67.08% @ Bangor 0 1056 15.81% 17.10%
6 2026-03-20 27.5 Larne 3 1356 69.14% @ Glenavon 0 1071 14.08% 16.78%
7 2025-11-07 27.7 @ Larne 3 1291 68.26% Portadown 0 1090 14.82% 16.92%
8 2026-01-23 28.2 @ Coleraine 2 1267 73.32% Glenavon 0 999 10.74% 15.94%
9 2025-09-06 28.9 @ Linfield 3 1274 64.28% Portadown 0 1118 18.25% 17.47%
10 2026-02-10 28.9 @ Linfield 6 1288 65.61% Dungannon Swifts 0 1117 17.08% 17.30%
11 2025-09-16 29.1 @ Larne 4 1265 61.59% Crusaders 0 1135 20.65% 17.76%
12 2025-09-20 29.1 @ Linfield 2 1275 70.52% Glenavon 0 1046 12.95% 16.53%
13 2026-03-18 29.1 @ Glentoran 3 1331 64.61% Cliftonville 0 1171 17.96% 17.43%
14 2025-11-01 29.3 @ Coleraine 5 1279 74.36% Glenavon 1 996 9.95% 15.69%
15 2026-02-28 29.6 @ Glentoran 5 1303 73.35% Crusaders 1 1034 10.71% 15.93%
16 2025-10-18 30.0 @ Coleraine 4 1246 58.35% Dungannon Swifts 0 1147 23.62% 18.03%
17 2026-03-28 30.0 @ Larne 2 1366 68.92% Cliftonville 0 1157 14.27% 16.81%
18 2026-02-28 30.2 Larne 2 1345 67.34% @ Ballymena United 0 1082 15.59% 17.06%
19 2025-09-26 30.5 Linfield 3 1281 58.84% @ Bangor 0 1104 23.17% 18.00%
20 2025-08-22 30.6 @ Larne 4 1211 56.09% Portadown 0 1132 25.73% 18.18%
21 2025-12-12 30.7 @ Coleraine 2 1285 65.62% Bangor 0 1115 17.08% 17.30%
22 2025-08-10 30.8 @ Linfield 3 1252 57.90% Dungannon Swifts 0 1156 24.04% 18.07%
23 2026-03-28 30.8 @ Carrick Rangers 6 1166 65.80% Crusaders 1 993 16.92% 17.28%
24 2025-09-20 31.1 @ Larne 2 1284 64.32% Carrick Rangers 0 1127 18.21% 17.47%
25 2026-01-03 31.3 Glentoran 7 1247 59.23% @ Carrick Rangers 0 1067 22.80% 17.96%