2024-25 NIFL Premiership Season

198 games

Final

Champion

Linfield

76 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Linfield

13.15 points above expected

76 points · 62.85 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Loughgall

12.05 points below expected

18 points · 30.05 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Linfield	33	24	4	5	76	61	23	+38	62.85	+13.15
2	Larne	33	15	9	9	54	39	28	+11	64.82	-10.82
3	Glentoran	33	15	9	9	54	40	31	+9	57.92	-3.92
4	Dungannon Swifts	33	15	5	13	50	44	40	+4	46.24	+3.76
5	Crusaders	33	15	5	13	50	41	43	-2	46.73	+3.27
6	Coleraine	33	13	10	10	49	49	41	+8	44.18	+4.82
7	Cliftonville	33	13	7	13	46	44	37	+7	53.26	-7.26
8	Portadown	33	13	7	13	46	39	38	+1	39.33	+6.67
9	Ballymena United	33	13	4	16	43	40	42	-2	35.34	+7.66
10	Glenavon	33	10	9	14	39	35	43	-8	35.99	+3.01
11	Carrick Rangers	33	6	9	18	27	24	48	-24	34.69	-7.69
12	Loughgall	33	4	6	23	18	29	71	-42	30.05	-12.05

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Linfield	76	62.85	+13.15
2	Ballymena United	43	35.34	+7.66
3	Portadown	46	39.33	+6.67
4	Coleraine	49	44.18	+4.82
5	Dungannon Swifts	50	46.24	+3.76

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Loughgall	18	30.05	-12.05
2	Larne	54	64.82	-10.82
3	Carrick Rangers	27	34.69	-7.69
4	Cliftonville	46	53.26	-7.26
5	Glentoran	54	57.92	-3.92

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Ballymena United	8	Aug 30 – Oct 12	1 in 25,633
2	Glenavon	5	Dec 26 – Feb 15	1 in 406
3	Cliftonville	4	Oct 22 – Nov 9	1 in 35
4	Coleraine	3	Feb 22 – Mar 8	1 in 33
5	Crusaders	3	Feb 8 – Feb 22	1 in 26

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Carrick Rangers	8	Aug 17 – Sep 28	1 in 418
2	Loughgall	8	Sep 14 – Oct 18	1 in 110
3	Larne	3	Feb 8 – Feb 15	1 in 72
4	Crusaders	3	Sep 14 – Sep 21	1 in 67
5	Cliftonville	4	Dec 14 – Jan 10	1 in 58

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Ballymena United	8	Aug 30 – Oct 12	1 in 246
2	Glenavon	6	Sep 7 – Oct 5	1 in 89
3	Portadown	6	Aug 20 – Sep 21	1 in 80
4	Glentoran	10	Nov 22 – Feb 18	1 in 40
5	Coleraine	6	Feb 22 – Mar 22	1 in 31

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Larne	5	Feb 8 – Feb 22	1 in 64
2	Carrick Rangers	11	Dec 14 – Feb 22	1 in 57
3	Loughgall	17	Nov 9 – Mar 15	1 in 49
4	Cliftonville	5	Sep 17 – Oct 19	1 in 31
5	Glentoran	4	Mar 12 – Mar 22	1 in 21

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Linfield	1370	76	+6	12	10.7	+1.3
Larne	1304	54	+9	11	9.6	+1.4
Glentoran	1259	54	-9	6	9.2	-3.2
Crusaders	1190	50	+14	10	7.3	+2.7
Dungannon Swifts	1182	50	-13	7	6.3	+0.7
Coleraine	1207	49	+26	11	7.2	+3.8
Cliftonville	1215	46	+3	7	7.8	-0.8
Portadown	1141	46	-29	4	7.0	-3.0
Ballymena United	1119	43	+19	6	5.4	+0.6
Glenavon	1123	39	-6	4	5.3	-1.3
Carrick Rangers	1060	27	-5	5	5.0	+0.0
Loughgall	1002	18	-6	4	3.6	+0.4

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BU	CR	CLI	COL	CRU	DS	GLE	GLE	LAR	LIN	LOU	POR
Ballymena United	—	1-1-1 4.11	3-0-0 2.69	0-1-2 3.58	0-0-3 2.89	1-0-2 3.08	2-0-1 4.20	1-1-1 2.28	1-0-2 1.85	0-1-2 1.99	2-0-1 5.13	2-0-1 3.88
Carrick Rangers	1-1-1 4.22	—	1-0-2 2.46	1-0-2 3.47	1-1-1 2.99	0-0-3 3.03	1-1-1 4.02	0-2-1 2.38	1-1-1 1.85	0-0-3 1.90	0-2-1 4.77	0-1-2 3.71
Cliftonville	0-0-3 5.67	2-0-1 5.92	—	1-2-0 4.67	1-1-1 4.68	2-0-1 5.15	1-1-1 5.59	1-0-2 3.91	0-1-2 3.01	1-1-1 3.17	3-0-0 6.11	1-1-1 5.49
Coleraine	2-1-0 4.76	2-0-1 4.86	0-2-1 3.66	—	0-0-3 4.11	1-2-0 3.76	1-1-1 5.12	1-1-1 2.92	0-2-1 2.41	1-0-2 2.39	3-0-0 5.24	2-1-0 4.79
Crusaders	3-0-0 5.46	1-1-1 5.35	1-1-1 3.65	3-0-0 4.22	—	0-1-2 4.50	1-0-2 5.34	2-0-1 3.38	1-1-1 2.42	0-0-3 2.65	2-1-0 5.79	1-0-2 4.66
Dungannon Swifts	2-0-1 5.26	3-0-0 5.31	1-0-2 3.19	0-2-1 4.57	2-1-0 3.82	—	1-1-1 5.24	1-0-2 3.21	2-0-1 2.49	0-0-3 2.59	2-0-1 5.40	1-1-1 4.96
Glenavon	1-0-2 4.13	1-1-1 4.31	1-1-1 2.76	1-1-1 3.22	2-0-1 3.01	1-1-1 3.11	—	0-2-1 2.51	0-2-1 2.16	0-0-3 1.92	1-1-1 4.68	2-0-1 3.35
Glentoran	1-1-1 6.11	1-2-0 6.01	2-0-1 4.42	1-1-1 5.43	1-0-2 4.95	2-0-1 5.13	1-2-0 5.87	—	0-1-2 3.45	2-1-0 3.25	2-1-0 6.26	2-0-1 5.57
Larne	2-0-1 6.59	1-1-1 6.59	2-1-0 5.34	1-2-0 5.97	1-1-1 5.96	1-0-2 5.88	1-2-0 6.24	2-1-0 4.88	—	1-0-2 4.25	3-0-0 6.90	0-1-2 6.29
Linfield	2-1-0 6.43	3-0-0 6.53	1-1-1 5.18	2-0-1 6.00	3-0-0 5.72	3-0-0 5.78	3-0-0 6.51	0-1-2 5.09	2-0-1 4.08	—	3-0-0 6.70	2-1-0 6.16
Loughgall	1-0-2 3.21	1-2-0 3.56	0-0-3 2.28	0-0-3 3.10	0-1-2 2.58	1-0-2 2.96	1-1-1 3.66	0-1-2 2.15	0-0-3 1.57	0-0-3 1.76	—	0-1-2 3.74
Portadown	1-0-2 4.45	2-1-0 4.62	1-1-1 2.87	0-1-2 3.54	2-0-1 3.68	1-1-1 3.37	1-0-2 4.99	1-0-2 2.79	2-1-0 2.11	0-1-2 2.23	2-1-0 4.61	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.80	+13.8
Allowed	0.82	-10.9
Differential	0.96	+7.2

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.57%	11.87%	8.08%	3.79%	1.01%	—	31.31%
1	11.87%	8.08%	6.57%	4.29%	1.26%	0.76%	32.83%
2	8.08%	6.57%	5.56%	1.52%	0.25%	—	21.97%
3	3.79%	4.29%	1.52%	1.01%	—	—	10.61%
4	1.01%	1.26%	0.25%	—	—	—	2.53%
5+	—	0.76%	—	—	—	—	0.76%
Total	31.31%	32.83%	21.97%	10.61%	2.53%	0.76%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.22	+0.00
SD	1.12	1.12	1.70
CV	0.92	0.92	—
Max	5	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 198

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.03%	18.18%	9.09%	3.03%	—	—	33.33%
1	18.18%	3.03%	12.12%	3.03%	—	—	36.36%
2	3.03%	—	6.06%	—	3.03%	—	12.12%
3	3.03%	3.03%	6.06%	—	—	—	12.12%
4	—	6.06%	—	—	—	—	6.06%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	30.30%	33.33%	6.06%	3.03%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.21	1.27	-0.06
SD	1.22	1.04	1.60
CV	1.01	0.82	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	15.15%	—	12.12%	3.03%	—	48.48%
1	3.03%	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	3.03%	—	33.33%
2	6.06%	6.06%	—	3.03%	—	—	15.15%
3	3.03%	—	—	—	—	—	3.03%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.30%	30.30%	9.09%	24.24%	6.06%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.73	1.45	-0.73
SD	0.84	1.33	1.63
CV	1.15	0.91	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	15.15%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	9.09%	6.06%	6.06%	6.06%	—	—	27.27%
2	6.06%	9.09%	6.06%	3.03%	—	—	24.24%
3	6.06%	—	—	—	—	—	6.06%
4	3.03%	3.03%	—	—	—	—	6.06%
5+	—	3.03%	—	—	—	—	3.03%
Total	33.33%	30.30%	27.27%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.12	+0.21
SD	1.34	0.99	1.82
CV	1.00	0.89	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.06%	—	6.06%	6.06%	—	—	18.18%
1	12.12%	12.12%	18.18%	—	—	—	42.42%
2	9.09%	3.03%	9.09%	—	—	—	21.21%
3	—	6.06%	—	3.03%	—	—	9.09%
4	3.03%	3.03%	3.03%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.30%	24.24%	36.36%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.48	1.24	+0.24
SD	1.18	1.00	1.62
CV	0.79	0.81	—
Max	4	3	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.03%	12.12%	3.03%	6.06%	—	—	24.24%
1	18.18%	9.09%	3.03%	9.09%	—	3.03%	42.42%
2	6.06%	9.09%	3.03%	3.03%	—	—	21.21%
3	—	6.06%	3.03%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	3.03%	—	—	—	—	—	3.03%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.30%	36.36%	12.12%	18.18%	—	3.03%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.24	1.30	-0.06
SD	1.03	1.26	1.75
CV	0.83	0.97	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	12.12%	3.03%	6.06%	—	—	21.21%
1	18.18%	12.12%	3.03%	6.06%	6.06%	—	45.45%
2	12.12%	3.03%	3.03%	3.03%	—	—	21.21%
3	3.03%	3.03%	—	—	—	—	6.06%
4	3.03%	—	—	—	—	—	3.03%
5+	—	3.03%	—	—	—	—	3.03%
Total	36.36%	33.33%	9.09%	15.15%	6.06%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.21	+0.12
SD	1.16	1.27	1.95
CV	0.87	1.05	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	45.45%
1	3.03%	9.09%	3.03%	3.03%	—	—	18.18%
2	12.12%	6.06%	3.03%	—	—	—	21.21%
3	—	6.06%	3.03%	6.06%	—	—	15.15%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	24.24%	39.39%	18.18%	18.18%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	1.30	-0.24
SD	1.14	1.05	1.54
CV	1.08	0.80	—
Max	3	3	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	12.12%	12.12%	12.12%	—	—	—	36.36%
1	12.12%	6.06%	3.03%	—	—	—	21.21%
2	9.09%	12.12%	6.06%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	3.03%	6.06%	3.03%	3.03%	—	—	15.15%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	36.36%	24.24%	3.03%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.21	0.94	+0.27
SD	1.11	0.86	1.33
CV	0.92	0.92	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.06%	18.18%	3.03%	3.03%	—	—	30.30%
1	12.12%	18.18%	3.03%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	12.12%	12.12%	3.03%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	—	6.06%	—	—	—	—	6.06%
4	—	3.03%	—	—	—	—	3.03%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	30.30%	57.58%	9.09%	3.03%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	0.85	+0.33
SD	1.04	0.71	1.34
CV	0.88	0.84	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.06%	6.06%	3.03%	—	—	—	15.15%
1	18.18%	—	3.03%	3.03%	—	—	24.24%
2	12.12%	9.09%	6.06%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	15.15%	12.12%	3.03%	—	—	—	30.30%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.03%	—	—	—	—	3.03%
Total	51.52%	30.30%	15.15%	3.03%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.85	0.70	+1.15
SD	1.20	0.85	1.48
CV	0.65	1.22	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.06%	12.12%	18.18%	—	9.09%	—	45.45%
1	—	3.03%	6.06%	9.09%	6.06%	6.06%	30.30%
2	—	3.03%	9.09%	3.03%	—	—	15.15%
3	6.06%	3.03%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	12.12%	21.21%	33.33%	12.12%	15.15%	6.06%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.88	2.15	-1.27
SD	0.99	1.42	1.86
CV	1.13	0.66	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 33

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	9.09%	15.15%	—	—	—	24.24%
1	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	3.03%	—	—	39.39%
2	9.09%	6.06%	12.12%	3.03%	—	—	30.30%
3	6.06%	—	—	—	—	—	6.06%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	24.24%	36.36%	6.06%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.15	+0.03
SD	0.88	0.97	1.47
CV	0.75	0.84	—
Max	3	3	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 33

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Linfield	1370	76	62.85	+13.15	98.0%	39	50	58	63	68	75	78
Larne	1304	54	64.82	-10.82	6.0%	49	54	61	65	69	74	78
Glentoran	1259	54	57.92	-3.92	30.0%	41	45	52	58	63	69	72
Cliftonville	1215	46	53.26	-7.26	11.0%	34	42	49	53	57	63	67
Coleraine	1207	49	44.18	+4.82	78.0%	28	31	40	44	49	54	62
Crusaders	1190	50	46.73	+3.27	71.0%	28	35	42	48	51	57	66
Dungannon Swifts	1182	50	46.24	+3.76	68.0%	27	32	40	46	52	61	65
Portadown	1141	46	39.33	+6.67	86.0%	26	29	35	39	44	50	54
Glenavon	1123	39	35.99	+3.01	63.0%	14	24	29	36	41	46	57
Ballymena United	1119	43	35.34	+7.66	84.0%	22	24	30	35	41	47	50
Carrick Rangers	1060	27	34.69	-7.69	22.0%	21	23	28	35	39	47	53
Loughgall	1002	18	30.05	-12.05	7.0%	13	18	24	31	35	40	47

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+4.04%

No Edge

41.41%21.21%37.37%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 14.05 Elo pts.

266 Elo

0.004 goals per Elo point

0800

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.05 goals

Neutral

-2+0.05+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

2.7

Top-Heavy

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

40%

Linfield, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.67/gm

Runaway

00.181/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.73 * Some Luck: 5.73 to 8.59 * Lucky: 8.59 to 11.45 * Wild Swing: 11.45 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.17 * Close: 1.17 to 1.75 * Off: 1.75 to 2.33 * Way Off: 2.33 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

7.76 points

Some Luck

07.1618

Average Finish Error

Expected

0.83

Pinpoint

01.463

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.00%

Linfield

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

6.00%

Larne

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.16

Balanced

00.190.250.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 102.02

1.86

Moderate Separation

11.852.253

Interquartile Edge

65%

Even

50%70%81%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

89%

Even

50%88%100%

Close Games

Expected

61%

Very Frequent

0%62%100%

Blowouts

Expected

14%

Rare

0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.61

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.35

Very Even

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.27

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.79

Near-Lock

00.470.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

28%

Very Upset-Prone

0%25%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Very Shaky

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.23 * Well Above Noise: 0.23 and up.

Probability calibration

0.83

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.80

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.108

Well Within Noise

00.1170.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Linfield	40.00%	24.00%	19.00%	11.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Larne	43.00%	35.00%	14.00%	5.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Glentoran	14.00%	21.00%	29.00%	13.00%	12.00%	7.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Dungannon Swifts	—	7.00%	6.00%	11.00%	17.00%	16.00%	17.00%	9.00%	6.00%	2.00%	6.00%	3.00%
Crusaders	1.00%	—	7.00%	17.00%	15.00%	19.00%	13.00%	13.00%	10.00%	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Coleraine	—	1.00%	3.00%	7.00%	15.00%	20.00%	22.00%	12.00%	5.00%	10.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Cliftonville	2.00%	12.00%	21.00%	31.00%	18.00%	6.00%	6.00%	2.00%	—	2.00%	—	—
Portadown	—	—	—	1.00%	12.00%	10.00%	9.00%	19.00%	18.00%	16.00%	11.00%	4.00%
Ballymena United	—	—	—	2.00%	1.00%	7.00%	7.00%	17.00%	15.00%	20.00%	20.00%	11.00%
Glenavon	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	8.00%	13.00%	13.00%	17.00%	11.00%	20.00%	15.00%
Carrick Rangers	—	—	—	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%	7.00%	11.00%	22.00%	12.00%	18.00%	22.00%
Loughgall	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	3.00%	7.00%	24.00%	21.00%	42.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Survived Relegation Round	Relegated
Cliftonville	100%	—	—
Glentoran	100%	—	—
Larne	100%	—	—
Linfield	100%	—	—
Coleraine	96.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Crusaders	98.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Dungannon Swifts	93.00%	5.00%	2.00%
Portadown	87.00%	11.00%	2.00%
Glenavon	71.00%	17.00%	12.00%
Ballymena United	69.00%	16.00%	15.00%
Carrick Rangers	54.00%	22.00%	24.00%
Loughgall	32.00%	25.00%	43.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Survived Relegation Round	Relegated
Ballymena United	100%	—	—
Cliftonville	100%	—	—
Coleraine	100%	—	—
Crusaders	100%	—	—
Dungannon Swifts	100%	—	—
Glenavon	99.92%	0.08%	—
Glentoran	100%	—	—
Larne	100%	—	—
Linfield	100%	—	—
Portadown	100%	—	—
Carrick Rangers	0.08%	99.01%	0.91%
Loughgall	—	0.91%	99.09%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2024-08-09	Crusaders	L 0-1	43.9	1256	1214	46.54%	22.27%	31.19%	+0.21	-8.6	0
2024-08-09	@ Glentoran	W 1-0	43.9	1214	1256	31.19%	22.27%	46.54%	-0.21	+8.6	3
2024-08-10	Coleraine	D 1-1	55.4	1150	1150	40.80%	22.49%	36.72%	+0.05	-0.2	1
2024-08-10	@ Dungannon Swifts	D 1-1	55.4	1150	1150	36.72%	22.49%	40.80%	-0.05	+0.2	1
2024-08-10	Glenavon	W 2-0	36.2	1126	1113	42.61%	22.45%	34.94%	+0.10	+12.9	3
2024-08-10	@ Carrick Rangers	L 0-2	36.2	1113	1126	34.94%	22.45%	42.61%	-0.10	-12.8	0
2024-08-10	Linfield	L 0-2	30.6	1077	1273	18.19%	20.24%	61.57%	-0.68	-7.2	0
2024-08-10	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	30.6	1273	1077	61.57%	20.24%	18.19%	+0.68	+7.2	3
2024-08-11	Portadown	W 1-0	34.9	1247	1088	60.62%	20.45%	18.93%	+0.65	+4.0	3
2024-08-11	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	34.9	1088	1247	18.93%	20.45%	60.62%	-0.65	-4.0	0
2024-08-16	Ballymena United	W 4-2	43.4	1150	1070	51.60%	21.86%	26.55%	+0.36	+7.9	4
2024-08-16	@ Coleraine	L 2-4	43.4	1070	1150	26.55%	21.86%	51.60%	-0.36	-7.9	0
2024-08-17	Carrick Rangers	W 3-0	35.2	1128	1139	39.21%	22.50%	38.29%	+0.01	+20.1	3
2024-08-17	@ Loughgall	L 0-3	35.2	1139	1128	38.29%	22.50%	39.21%	-0.01	-20.1	3
2024-08-17	Cliftonville	L 1-2	42.5	1100	1251	22.16%	21.18%	56.65%	-0.51	-4.4	0
2024-08-17	@ Glenavon	W 2-1	42.5	1251	1100	56.65%	21.18%	22.16%	+0.51	+4.4	6
2024-08-17	Dungannon Swifts	W 3-1	38.3	1280	1150	57.47%	21.05%	21.48%	+0.54	+7.3	6
2024-08-17	@ Linfield	L 1-3	38.3	1150	1280	21.48%	21.05%	57.47%	-0.54	-7.3	1
2024-08-17	Glentoran	L 1-2	42.1	1084	1248	20.97%	20.94%	58.09%	-0.56	-4.2	0
2024-08-17	@ Portadown	W 2-1	42.1	1248	1084	58.09%	20.94%	20.97%	+0.56	+4.1	3
2024-08-20	Coleraine	D 0-0	50.5	1252	1158	53.19%	21.67%	25.14%	+0.40	-1.3	4
2024-08-20	@ Glentoran	D 0-0	50.5	1158	1252	25.14%	21.67%	53.19%	-0.40	+1.3	5
2024-08-20	Crusaders	L 0-1	35.7	1062	1223	21.19%	20.99%	57.83%	-0.55	-4.4	0
2024-08-20	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	35.7	1223	1062	57.83%	20.99%	21.19%	+0.55	+4.4	6
2024-08-20	Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	36.5	1255	1143	55.43%	21.37%	23.20%	+0.47	+4.8	9
2024-08-20	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	36.5	1143	1255	23.20%	21.37%	55.43%	-0.47	-4.8	1
2024-08-20	Linfield	L 0-3	28.7	1096	1287	18.52%	20.33%	61.15%	-0.67	-10.7	0
2024-08-20	@ Glenavon	W 3-0	28.7	1287	1096	61.15%	20.33%	18.52%	+0.67	+10.7	9
2024-08-20	Portadown	D 2-2	61.9	1148	1080	50.01%	22.01%	27.98%	+0.31	-0.7	4
2024-08-20	@ Loughgall	D 2-2	61.9	1080	1148	27.98%	22.01%	50.01%	-0.31	+0.7	1
2024-08-23	Glentoran	L 2-3	48.4	1119	1250	24.06%	21.52%	54.42%	-0.44	-4.5	3
2024-08-23	@ Carrick Rangers	W 3-2	48.4	1250	1119	54.42%	21.52%	24.06%	+0.44	+4.5	7
2024-08-24	Ballymena United	W 1-0	37.5	1138	1057	51.61%	21.86%	26.53%	+0.36	+5.4	4
2024-08-24	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-1	37.5	1057	1138	26.53%	21.86%	51.61%	-0.36	-5.4	0
2024-08-24	Cliftonville	D 1-1	55.8	1227	1260	36.14%	22.48%	41.38%	-0.07	+0.2	7
2024-08-24	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	55.8	1260	1227	41.38%	22.48%	36.14%	+0.07	-0.2	10
2024-08-24	Glenavon	L 0-2	40.8	1159	1085	50.84%	21.93%	27.22%	+0.33	-17.4	5
2024-08-24	@ Coleraine	W 2-0	40.8	1085	1159	27.22%	21.93%	50.84%	-0.33	+17.4	3
2024-08-24	Loughgall	W 5-1	32.9	1298	1147	59.78%	20.62%	19.60%	+0.62	+12.3	12
2024-08-24	@ Linfield	L 1-5	32.9	1147	1298	19.60%	20.62%	59.78%	-0.62	-12.3	4
2024-08-30	Glenavon	W 3-1	45.2	1052	1102	33.71%	22.40%	43.88%	-0.14	+13.3	3
2024-08-30	@ Ballymena United	L 1-3	45.2	1102	1052	43.88%	22.40%	33.71%	+0.14	-13.3	3
2024-08-30	Linfield	D 2-2	62.8	1080	1310	15.65%	19.40%	64.95%	-0.81	+1.6	2
2024-08-30	@ Portadown	D 2-2	62.8	1310	1080	64.95%	19.40%	15.65%	+0.81	-1.6	13
2024-08-31	Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	42.8	1228	1114	55.57%	21.35%	23.08%	+0.48	+4.5	10
2024-08-31	@ Crusaders	L 1-2	42.8	1114	1228	23.08%	21.35%	55.57%	-0.48	-4.5	3
2024-08-31	Cliftonville	W 1-0	41.4	1255	1260	40.07%	22.49%	37.43%	+0.03	+7.2	10
2024-08-31	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	41.4	1260	1255	37.43%	22.49%	40.07%	-0.03	-7.2	10
2024-08-31	Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	37.6	1135	1144	39.54%	22.50%	37.96%	+0.02	-14.2	4
2024-08-31	@ Loughgall	W 2-0	37.6	1144	1135	37.96%	22.50%	39.54%	-0.02	+14.2	7
2024-09-01	Larne	D 1-1	56.6	1142	1352	17.08%	19.90%	63.02%	-0.74	+2.0	6
2024-09-01	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	56.6	1352	1142	63.02%	19.90%	17.08%	+0.74	-2.0	1
2024-09-07	Ballymena United	L 0-1	49.9	1350	1065	72.19%	17.04%	10.78%	+1.12	-12.5	1
2024-09-07	@ Larne	W 1-0	49.9	1065	1350	10.78%	17.04%	72.19%	-1.12	+12.5	6
2024-09-07	Glentoran	W 1-0	45.1	1158	1262	27.03%	21.91%	51.05%	-0.34	+9.3	10
2024-09-07	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-1	45.1	1262	1158	51.05%	21.91%	27.03%	+0.34	-9.3	10
2024-09-07	Loughgall	D 2-2	61.8	1089	1121	36.23%	22.48%	41.29%	-0.07	+0.1	4
2024-09-07	@ Glenavon	D 2-2	61.8	1121	1089	41.29%	22.48%	36.23%	+0.07	-0.1	5
2024-09-07	Portadown	L 0-1	43.1	1110	1082	44.62%	22.37%	33.00%	+0.16	-8.3	3
2024-09-07	@ Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	43.1	1082	1110	33.00%	22.37%	44.62%	-0.16	+8.3	5
2024-09-13	Dungannon Swifts	W 2-1	50.3	1090	1167	30.34%	22.22%	47.45%	-0.23	+8.2	8
2024-09-13	@ Portadown	L 1-2	50.3	1167	1090	47.45%	22.22%	30.34%	+0.23	-8.2	10
2024-09-14	Carrick Rangers	W 3-1	41.3	1144	1101	46.66%	22.27%	31.07%	+0.21	+10.1	9
2024-09-14	@ Coleraine	L 1-3	41.3	1101	1144	31.07%	22.27%	46.66%	-0.21	-10.1	3
2024-09-14	Cliftonville	L 1-5	34.4	1121	1253	24.06%	21.51%	54.43%	-0.44	-14.8	5
2024-09-14	@ Loughgall	W 5-1	34.4	1253	1121	54.43%	21.51%	24.06%	+0.44	+14.8	13
2024-09-14	Glenavon	L 0-1	47.0	1232	1089	58.93%	20.79%	20.29%	+0.59	-10.5	10
2024-09-14	@ Crusaders	W 1-0	47.0	1089	1232	20.29%	20.79%	58.93%	-0.59	+10.5	7
2024-09-14	Glentoran	W 1-0	47.1	1078	1253	19.94%	20.70%	59.35%	-0.60	+10.6	9
2024-09-14	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	47.1	1253	1078	59.35%	20.70%	19.94%	+0.60	-10.6	10
2024-09-14	Larne	L 0-1	42.0	1309	1338	36.64%	22.48%	40.87%	-0.06	-7.1	13
2024-09-14	@ Linfield	W 1-0	42.0	1338	1309	40.87%	22.48%	36.64%	+0.06	+7.1	4
2024-09-17	Ballymena United	L 1-4	41.2	1091	1088	41.18%	22.48%	36.34%	+0.06	-17.9	3
2024-09-17	@ Carrick Rangers	W 4-1	41.2	1088	1091	36.34%	22.48%	41.18%	-0.06	+17.9	12
2024-09-17	Coleraine	D 2-2	61.8	1099	1154	33.02%	22.37%	44.61%	-0.16	+0.3	9
2024-09-17	@ Portadown	D 2-2	61.8	1154	1099	44.61%	22.37%	33.02%	+0.16	-0.3	10
2024-09-17	Crusaders	W 1-0	43.5	1159	1222	32.07%	22.33%	45.60%	-0.18	+8.4	13
2024-09-17	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-1	43.5	1222	1159	45.60%	22.33%	32.07%	+0.18	-8.4	10
2024-09-17	Larne	D 0-0	51.4	1100	1345	14.62%	19.00%	66.39%	-0.87	+2.5	8
2024-09-17	@ Glenavon	D 0-0	51.4	1345	1100	66.39%	19.00%	14.62%	+0.87	-2.5	5
2024-09-17	Linfield	D 0-0	50.8	1267	1302	35.87%	22.47%	41.66%	-0.08	+0.2	14
2024-09-17	@ Cliftonville	D 0-0	50.8	1302	1267	41.66%	22.47%	35.87%	+0.08	-0.2	14
2024-09-17	Loughgall	W 2-0	31.6	1242	1106	58.19%	20.92%	20.89%	+0.57	+8.2	13
2024-09-17	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	31.6	1106	1242	20.89%	20.92%	58.19%	-0.57	-8.2	5
2024-09-20	Glentoran	W 2-0	33.9	1342	1250	53.00%	21.70%	25.30%	+0.40	+9.8	8
2024-09-20	@ Larne	L 0-2	33.9	1250	1342	25.30%	21.70%	53.00%	-0.40	-9.8	13
2024-09-21	Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	32.9	1302	1073	67.39%	18.70%	13.91%	+0.91	+2.9	17
2024-09-21	@ Linfield	L 0-1	32.9	1073	1302	13.91%	18.70%	67.39%	-0.91	-2.9	3
2024-09-21	Cliftonville	W 3-2	58.4	1106	1268	21.17%	20.98%	57.84%	-0.55	+9.3	15
2024-09-21	@ Ballymena United	L 2-3	58.4	1268	1106	57.84%	20.98%	21.17%	+0.55	-9.3	14
2024-09-21	Dungannon Swifts	D 1-1	55.5	1102	1167	31.79%	22.31%	45.90%	-0.19	+0.6	9
2024-09-21	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	55.5	1167	1102	45.90%	22.31%	31.79%	+0.19	-0.6	14
2024-09-21	Loughgall	W 2-0	34.4	1154	1098	48.47%	22.14%	29.39%	+0.26	+11.2	13
2024-09-21	@ Coleraine	L 0-2	34.4	1098	1154	29.39%	22.14%	48.47%	-0.26	-11.2	5
2024-09-21	Portadown	L 0-3	40.1	1213	1099	55.68%	21.34%	22.99%	+0.48	-27.4	10
2024-09-21	@ Crusaders	W 3-0	40.1	1099	1213	22.99%	21.34%	55.68%	-0.48	+27.4	12
2024-09-24	Loughgall	W 2-0	28.0	1352	1086	70.63%	17.62%	11.76%	+1.05	+4.6	11
2024-09-24	@ Larne	L 0-2	28.0	1086	1352	11.76%	17.62%	70.63%	-1.05	-4.6	5
2024-09-27	Larne	L 1-3	41.2	1258	1357	27.71%	21.99%	50.30%	-0.32	-9.2	14
2024-09-27	@ Cliftonville	W 3-1	41.2	1357	1258	50.30%	21.99%	27.71%	+0.32	+9.2	14
2024-09-28	Ballymena United	L 0-1	42.4	1126	1116	42.28%	22.46%	35.26%	+0.09	-7.9	12
2024-09-28	@ Portadown	W 1-0	42.4	1116	1126	35.26%	22.46%	42.28%	-0.09	+7.9	18
2024-09-28	Carrick Rangers	W 4-0	31.0	1167	1070	53.51%	21.63%	24.85%	+0.41	+18.3	17
2024-09-28	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-4	31.0	1070	1167	24.85%	21.63%	53.51%	-0.41	-18.3	3
2024-09-28	Crusaders	L 0-4	31.8	1082	1186	27.08%	21.92%	51.01%	-0.34	-19.7	5
2024-09-28	@ Loughgall	W 4-0	31.8	1186	1082	51.01%	21.92%	27.08%	+0.34	+19.8	13
2024-09-28	Glenavon	D 0-0	50.6	1241	1103	58.37%	20.89%	20.74%	+0.57	-1.8	14
2024-09-28	@ Glentoran	D 0-0	50.6	1103	1241	20.74%	20.89%	58.37%	-0.57	+1.8	10
2024-09-28	Linfield	L 0-3	30.7	1165	1305	23.27%	21.39%	55.34%	-0.47	-13.2	13
2024-09-28	@ Coleraine	W 3-0	30.7	1305	1165	55.34%	21.39%	23.27%	+0.47	+13.2	20
2024-10-04	Glentoran	L 1-3	47.9	1318	1239	51.37%	21.88%	26.75%	+0.35	-15.2	20
2024-10-04	@ Linfield	W 3-1	47.9	1239	1318	26.75%	21.88%	51.37%	-0.35	+15.2	17
2024-10-05	Cliftonville	W 2-0	43.6	1052	1249	18.11%	20.22%	61.68%	-0.69	+20.7	6
2024-10-05	@ Carrick Rangers	L 0-2	43.6	1249	1052	61.68%	20.22%	18.11%	+0.69	-20.7	14
2024-10-05	Coleraine	W 2-1	45.1	1206	1152	48.15%	22.17%	29.68%	+0.25	+5.6	16
2024-10-05	@ Crusaders	L 1-2	45.1	1152	1206	29.68%	22.17%	48.15%	-0.25	-5.6	13
2024-10-05	Loughgall	W 4-1	37.4	1123	1062	49.14%	22.09%	28.77%	+0.28	+13.4	21
2024-10-05	@ Ballymena United	L 1-4	37.4	1062	1123	28.77%	22.09%	49.14%	-0.28	-13.4	5
2024-10-05	Portadown	W 2-1	47.8	1104	1118	38.76%	22.50%	38.74%	+0.00	+7.0	13
2024-10-05	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	47.8	1118	1104	38.74%	22.50%	38.76%	+0.00	-7.0	12
2024-10-06	Dungannon Swifts	L 0-3	42.4	1366	1185	62.92%	19.93%	17.16%	+0.73	-30.5	14
2024-10-06	@ Larne	W 3-0	42.4	1185	1366	17.16%	19.93%	62.92%	-0.73	+30.5	20
2024-10-12	Ballymena United	L 0-1	40.9	1111	1137	37.12%	22.49%	40.39%	-0.04	-7.1	13
2024-10-12	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	40.9	1137	1111	40.39%	22.49%	37.12%	+0.04	+7.1	24
2024-10-12	Coleraine	W 2-1	50.2	1073	1146	30.75%	22.25%	47.01%	-0.22	+8.2	9
2024-10-12	@ Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	50.2	1146	1073	47.01%	22.25%	30.75%	+0.22	-8.1	13
2024-10-12	Dungannon Swifts	W 2-0	35.4	1254	1215	46.13%	22.30%	31.58%	+0.20	+11.8	20
2024-10-12	@ Glentoran	L 0-2	35.4	1215	1254	31.58%	22.30%	46.13%	-0.20	-11.8	20
2024-10-12	Linfield	L 2-3	50.2	1211	1303	28.55%	22.07%	49.38%	-0.29	-5.2	16
2024-10-12	@ Crusaders	W 3-2	50.2	1303	1211	49.38%	22.07%	28.55%	+0.29	+5.2	23
2024-10-12	Loughgall	W 1-0	38.2	1111	1049	49.32%	22.07%	28.61%	+0.29	+5.8	15
2024-10-12	@ Portadown	L 0-1	38.2	1049	1111	28.61%	22.07%	49.32%	-0.29	-5.8	5
2024-10-18	Linfield	L 1-3	35.0	1043	1308	13.39%	18.46%	68.15%	-0.94	-4.6	5
2024-10-18	@ Loughgall	W 3-1	35.0	1308	1043	68.15%	18.46%	13.39%	+0.94	+4.6	26
2024-10-19	Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	56.3	1266	1081	63.31%	19.83%	16.86%	+0.75	-2.0	21
2024-10-19	@ Glentoran	D 1-1	56.3	1081	1266	16.86%	19.83%	63.31%	-0.75	+2.0	10
2024-10-19	Coleraine	L 0-1	42.2	1144	1138	41.61%	22.47%	35.92%	+0.08	-7.8	24
2024-10-19	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	42.2	1138	1144	35.92%	22.47%	41.61%	-0.08	+7.8	16
2024-10-19	Crusaders	D 1-1	56.4	1336	1206	57.42%	21.06%	21.52%	+0.54	-1.5	15
2024-10-19	@ Larne	D 1-1	56.4	1206	1336	21.52%	21.06%	57.42%	-0.54	+1.5	17
2024-10-19	Glenavon	D 0-0	50.5	1228	1104	56.83%	21.16%	22.02%	+0.52	-1.6	15
2024-10-19	@ Cliftonville	D 0-0	50.5	1104	1228	22.02%	21.16%	56.83%	-0.52	+1.6	14
2024-10-19	Portadown	W 2-0	33.3	1204	1117	52.32%	21.78%	25.90%	+0.38	+10.0	23
2024-10-19	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	33.3	1117	1204	25.90%	21.78%	52.32%	-0.38	-10.0	15
2024-10-22	Coleraine	W 2-1	44.1	1227	1146	51.66%	21.85%	26.49%	+0.36	+5.1	18
2024-10-22	@ Cliftonville	L 1-2	44.1	1146	1227	26.49%	21.85%	51.66%	-0.36	-5.1	16
2024-10-26	Ballymena United	W 1-0	37.9	1207	1136	50.42%	21.98%	27.60%	+0.32	+5.6	20
2024-10-26	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	37.9	1136	1207	27.60%	21.98%	50.42%	-0.32	-5.6	24
2024-10-26	Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	55.4	1106	1083	43.97%	22.40%	33.62%	+0.14	-0.4	15
2024-10-26	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	55.4	1083	1106	33.62%	22.40%	43.97%	-0.14	+0.4	11
2024-10-26	Cliftonville	L 1-2	52.0	1312	1232	51.56%	21.86%	26.58%	+0.35	-8.8	26
2024-10-26	@ Linfield	W 2-1	52.0	1232	1312	26.58%	21.86%	51.56%	-0.35	+8.8	21
2024-10-26	Glentoran	W 2-1	52.1	1141	1264	24.95%	21.65%	53.40%	-0.41	+9.1	19
2024-10-26	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	52.1	1264	1141	53.40%	21.65%	24.95%	+0.41	-9.1	21
2024-10-26	Loughgall	L 1-3	50.1	1214	1038	62.34%	20.06%	17.59%	+0.71	-18.1	23
2024-10-26	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 3-1	50.1	1038	1214	17.59%	20.06%	62.34%	-0.71	+18.1	8
2024-10-27	Larne	W 2-1	54.9	1107	1334	15.87%	19.49%	64.65%	-0.80	+10.8	18
2024-10-27	@ Portadown	L 1-2	54.9	1334	1107	64.65%	19.49%	15.87%	+0.80	-10.8	15
2024-11-01	Crusaders	W 1-0	39.9	1241	1213	44.63%	22.37%	32.99%	+0.16	+6.5	24
2024-11-01	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	39.9	1213	1241	32.99%	22.37%	44.63%	-0.16	-6.5	20
2024-11-01	Portadown	L 0-3	36.5	1131	1118	42.54%	22.45%	35.01%	+0.10	-21.8	24
2024-11-01	@ Ballymena United	W 3-0	36.5	1118	1131	35.01%	22.45%	42.54%	-0.10	+21.8	21
2024-11-02	Dungannon Swifts	W 4-1	41.9	1150	1196	34.32%	22.43%	43.25%	-0.12	+18.6	22
2024-11-02	@ Coleraine	L 1-4	41.9	1196	1150	43.25%	22.43%	34.32%	+0.12	-18.6	23
2024-11-02	Glenavon	W 3-0	36.8	1056	1105	33.87%	22.41%	43.71%	-0.13	+22.3	11
2024-11-02	@ Loughgall	L 0-3	36.8	1105	1056	43.71%	22.41%	33.87%	+0.13	-22.3	15
2024-11-02	Larne	L 0-2	35.8	1255	1323	31.37%	22.29%	46.34%	-0.20	-11.8	21
2024-11-02	@ Glentoran	W 2-0	35.8	1323	1255	46.34%	22.29%	31.37%	+0.20	+11.8	18
2024-11-03	Linfield	L 1-3	36.3	1083	1303	16.34%	19.66%	64.00%	-0.77	-5.6	11
2024-11-03	@ Carrick Rangers	W 3-1	36.3	1303	1083	64.00%	19.66%	16.34%	+0.77	+5.7	29
2024-11-09	Ballymena United	W 2-0	29.7	1309	1109	64.80%	19.44%	15.75%	+0.81	+6.3	32
2024-11-09	@ Linfield	L 0-2	29.7	1109	1309	15.75%	19.44%	64.80%	-0.81	-6.3	24
2024-11-09	Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	55.5	1140	1078	49.23%	22.08%	28.69%	+0.29	-0.8	22
2024-11-09	@ Portadown	D 1-1	55.5	1078	1140	28.69%	22.08%	49.23%	-0.29	+0.8	12
2024-11-09	Cliftonville	L 1-4	38.3	1177	1247	31.12%	22.27%	46.61%	-0.21	-14.3	23
2024-11-09	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 4-1	38.3	1247	1177	46.61%	22.27%	31.12%	+0.21	+14.3	27
2024-11-09	Glentoran	L 0-3	29.7	1083	1243	21.30%	21.01%	57.69%	-0.55	-12.2	15
2024-11-09	@ Glenavon	W 3-0	29.7	1243	1083	57.69%	21.01%	21.30%	+0.55	+12.2	24
2024-11-09	Loughgall	W 3-1	38.2	1207	1079	57.25%	21.09%	21.66%	+0.53	+7.4	23
2024-11-09	@ Crusaders	L 1-3	38.2	1079	1207	21.66%	21.09%	57.25%	-0.53	-7.4	11
2024-11-10	Coleraine	W 2-1	41.4	1335	1168	61.44%	20.27%	18.29%	+0.68	+3.6	21
2024-11-10	@ Larne	L 1-2	41.4	1168	1335	18.29%	20.27%	61.44%	-0.68	-3.6	22
2024-11-16	Ballymena United	L 0-1	47.4	1262	1102	60.66%	20.44%	18.90%	+0.65	-10.8	27
2024-11-16	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	47.4	1102	1262	18.90%	20.44%	60.66%	-0.65	+10.8	27
2024-11-16	Coleraine	L 0-4	32.2	1071	1165	28.29%	22.04%	49.67%	-0.30	-20.5	11
2024-11-16	@ Loughgall	W 4-0	32.2	1165	1071	49.67%	22.04%	28.29%	+0.30	+20.5	25
2024-11-16	Crusaders	W 3-0	39.9	1078	1214	23.68%	21.45%	54.86%	-0.46	+27.0	15
2024-11-16	@ Carrick Rangers	L 0-3	39.9	1214	1078	54.86%	21.45%	23.68%	+0.46	-27.0	23
2024-11-16	Glenavon	W 2-0	33.1	1163	1071	52.97%	21.70%	25.33%	+0.40	+9.8	26
2024-11-16	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	33.1	1071	1163	25.33%	21.70%	52.97%	-0.40	-9.8	15
2024-11-16	Linfield	L 0-1	44.2	1339	1315	44.02%	22.40%	33.58%	+0.14	-8.2	21
2024-11-16	@ Larne	W 1-0	44.2	1315	1339	33.58%	22.40%	44.02%	-0.14	+8.2	35
2024-11-16	Portadown	L 0-2	42.3	1255	1139	55.92%	21.30%	22.78%	+0.49	-18.9	24
2024-11-16	@ Glentoran	W 2-0	42.3	1139	1255	22.78%	21.30%	55.92%	-0.49	+18.9	25
2024-11-22	Linfield	W 1-0	44.9	1236	1324	29.04%	22.11%	48.84%	-0.27	+8.9	27
2024-11-22	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	44.9	1324	1236	48.84%	22.11%	29.04%	+0.27	-8.9	35
2024-11-23	Dungannon Swifts	L 0-1	39.2	1106	1172	31.56%	22.30%	46.15%	-0.20	-6.3	15
2024-11-23	@ Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	39.2	1172	1106	46.15%	22.30%	31.56%	+0.20	+6.3	29
2024-11-23	Glenavon	W 1-0	36.9	1158	1061	53.58%	21.63%	24.79%	+0.42	+5.1	28
2024-11-23	@ Portadown	L 0-1	36.9	1061	1158	24.79%	21.63%	53.58%	-0.42	-5.1	15
2024-11-23	Loughgall	W 4-0	27.7	1251	1051	64.78%	19.45%	15.77%	+0.80	+11.9	30
2024-11-23	@ Cliftonville	L 0-4	27.7	1051	1251	15.77%	19.45%	64.78%	-0.80	-11.9	11
2024-11-24	Crusaders	L 1-2	48.5	1185	1187	40.52%	22.49%	36.99%	+0.05	-7.2	25
2024-11-24	@ Coleraine	W 2-1	48.5	1187	1185	36.99%	22.49%	40.52%	-0.05	+7.2	26
2024-11-30	Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	49.0	1113	1099	42.74%	22.44%	34.82%	+0.11	-7.5	27
2024-11-30	@ Ballymena United	W 2-1	49.0	1099	1113	34.82%	22.44%	42.74%	-0.11	+7.5	18
2024-11-30	Coleraine	D 3-3	65.6	1056	1178	25.09%	21.67%	53.24%	-0.41	+0.7	16
2024-11-30	@ Glenavon	D 3-3	65.6	1178	1056	53.24%	21.67%	25.09%	+0.41	-0.7	26
2024-11-30	Dungannon Swifts	D 2-2	61.9	1194	1179	42.94%	22.44%	34.63%	+0.11	-0.2	27
2024-11-30	@ Crusaders	D 2-2	61.9	1179	1194	34.63%	22.44%	42.94%	-0.11	+0.2	30
2024-11-30	Glentoran	D 2-2	62.6	1039	1245	17.36%	19.99%	62.65%	-0.72	+1.4	12
2024-11-30	@ Loughgall	D 2-2	62.6	1245	1039	62.65%	19.99%	17.36%	+0.72	-1.4	28
2024-11-30	Portadown	W 2-1	41.8	1315	1163	59.87%	20.60%	19.53%	+0.62	+3.9	38
2024-11-30	@ Linfield	L 1-2	41.8	1163	1315	19.53%	20.60%	59.87%	-0.62	-3.9	28
2024-12-01	Cliftonville	D 1-1	56.4	1330	1263	49.96%	22.02%	28.03%	+0.31	-0.9	22
2024-12-01	@ Larne	D 1-1	56.4	1263	1330	28.03%	22.02%	49.96%	-0.31	+0.9	31
2024-12-13	Glentoran	L 1-3	42.4	1194	1244	33.77%	22.41%	43.83%	-0.13	-10.8	27
2024-12-13	@ Crusaders	W 3-1	42.4	1244	1194	43.83%	22.41%	33.77%	+0.13	+10.8	31
2024-12-14	Cliftonville	W 2-0	41.0	1159	1264	27.01%	21.91%	51.08%	-0.34	+17.5	31
2024-12-14	@ Portadown	L 0-2	41.0	1264	1159	51.08%	21.91%	27.01%	+0.34	-17.5	31
2024-12-14	Coleraine	W 3-0	29.7	1319	1177	58.73%	20.82%	20.45%	+0.58	+11.8	41
2024-12-14	@ Linfield	L 0-3	29.7	1177	1319	20.45%	20.82%	58.73%	-0.58	-11.8	26
2024-12-14	Dungannon Swifts	L 0-1	38.9	1106	1179	30.76%	22.25%	46.99%	-0.22	-6.2	27
2024-12-14	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	38.9	1179	1106	46.99%	22.25%	30.76%	+0.22	+6.1	33
2024-12-14	Loughgall	D 0-0	50.2	1107	1040	49.82%	22.03%	28.15%	+0.30	-1.0	19
2024-12-14	@ Carrick Rangers	D 0-0	50.2	1040	1107	28.15%	22.03%	49.82%	-0.30	+1.0	13
2024-12-17	Crusaders	W 3-1	48.0	1057	1183	24.63%	21.60%	53.77%	-0.42	+15.8	19
2024-12-17	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	48.0	1183	1057	53.77%	21.60%	24.63%	+0.42	-15.8	27
2024-12-17	Linfield	L 0-1	36.6	1185	1330	22.71%	21.29%	56.00%	-0.49	-4.7	33
2024-12-17	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	36.6	1330	1185	56.00%	21.29%	22.71%	+0.49	+4.7	44
2024-12-21	Ballymena United	L 2-3	51.1	1041	1100	32.64%	22.36%	45.00%	-0.17	-5.8	13
2024-12-21	@ Loughgall	W 3-2	51.1	1100	1041	45.00%	22.36%	32.64%	+0.17	+5.8	30
2024-12-21	Crusaders	W 1-0	40.4	1177	1167	42.07%	22.46%	35.46%	+0.09	+6.9	34
2024-12-21	@ Portadown	L 0-1	40.4	1167	1177	35.46%	22.46%	42.07%	-0.09	-6.9	27
2024-12-21	Glenavon	W 1-0	32.0	1335	1073	70.35%	17.72%	11.93%	+1.04	+2.5	47
2024-12-21	@ Linfield	L 0-1	32.0	1073	1335	11.93%	17.72%	70.35%	-1.04	-2.5	19
2024-12-21	Glentoran	L 1-2	48.4	1246	1255	39.54%	22.50%	37.96%	+0.02	-7.1	31
2024-12-21	@ Cliftonville	W 2-1	48.4	1255	1246	37.96%	22.50%	39.54%	-0.02	+7.1	34
2024-12-23	Larne	L 0-1	36.5	1180	1330	22.32%	21.21%	56.46%	-0.51	-4.6	33
2024-12-23	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	36.5	1330	1180	56.46%	21.21%	22.32%	+0.51	+4.7	25
2024-12-26	Ballymena United	D 2-2	61.9	1166	1105	48.98%	22.10%	28.92%	+0.28	-0.6	27
2024-12-26	@ Coleraine	D 2-2	61.9	1105	1166	28.92%	22.10%	48.98%	-0.28	+0.6	31
2024-12-26	Carrick Rangers	D 0-0	51.4	1334	1106	67.41%	18.69%	13.90%	+0.91	-2.6	26
2024-12-26	@ Larne	D 0-0	51.4	1106	1334	13.90%	18.69%	67.41%	-0.91	+2.6	20
2024-12-26	Cliftonville	W 2-0	40.1	1160	1239	30.08%	22.20%	47.73%	-0.24	+16.5	30
2024-12-26	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	40.1	1239	1160	47.73%	22.20%	30.08%	+0.24	-16.5	31
2024-12-26	Linfield	D 0-0	51.0	1262	1338	30.45%	22.22%	47.33%	-0.23	+0.8	35
2024-12-26	@ Glentoran	D 0-0	51.0	1338	1262	47.33%	22.22%	30.45%	+0.23	-0.8	48
2024-12-26	Loughgall	W 2-1	41.8	1176	1035	58.63%	20.84%	20.53%	+0.58	+4.1	36
2024-12-26	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 1-2	41.8	1035	1176	20.53%	20.84%	58.63%	-0.58	-4.1	13
2024-12-26	Portadown	W 2-0	41.2	1070	1183	26.03%	21.79%	52.18%	-0.37	+17.8	22
2024-12-26	@ Glenavon	L 0-2	41.2	1183	1070	52.18%	21.79%	26.03%	+0.37	-17.8	34
2024-12-30	Coleraine	L 1-3	38.9	1031	1165	23.87%	21.49%	54.64%	-0.45	-8.1	13
2024-12-30	@ Loughgall	W 3-1	38.9	1165	1031	54.64%	21.49%	23.87%	+0.45	+8.1	30
2024-12-30	Crusaders	D 0-0	50.2	1108	1177	31.36%	22.29%	46.36%	-0.20	+0.7	21
2024-12-30	@ Carrick Rangers	D 0-0	50.2	1177	1108	46.36%	22.29%	31.36%	+0.20	-0.7	31
2024-12-30	Glenavon	L 0-2	38.7	1106	1088	43.31%	22.43%	34.27%	+0.12	-15.2	31
2024-12-30	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	38.7	1088	1106	34.27%	22.43%	43.31%	-0.12	+15.2	25
2024-12-30	Glentoran	L 0-2	34.1	1166	1263	27.90%	22.01%	50.10%	-0.31	-10.7	34
2024-12-30	@ Portadown	W 2-0	34.1	1263	1166	50.10%	22.01%	27.90%	+0.31	+10.7	38
2025-01-07	Larne	L 1-3	38.6	1176	1332	21.72%	21.10%	57.18%	-0.53	-7.4	31
2025-01-07	@ Crusaders	W 3-1	38.6	1332	1176	57.18%	21.10%	21.72%	+0.53	+7.4	29
2025-01-10	Cliftonville	W 2-0	32.8	1339	1223	55.93%	21.30%	22.77%	+0.49	+8.9	32
2025-01-10	@ Larne	L 0-2	32.8	1223	1339	22.77%	21.30%	55.93%	-0.49	-8.9	31
2025-01-11	Carrick Rangers	W 3-0	27.0	1337	1109	67.35%	18.71%	13.94%	+0.91	+8.1	51
2025-01-11	@ Linfield	L 0-3	27.0	1109	1337	13.94%	18.71%	67.35%	-0.91	-8.1	21
2025-01-11	Dungannon Swifts	L 1-5	39.2	1169	1180	39.19%	22.50%	38.31%	+0.01	-22.2	31
2025-01-11	@ Crusaders	W 5-1	39.2	1180	1169	38.31%	22.50%	39.19%	-0.01	+22.2	39
2025-01-11	Portadown	L 0-1	36.6	1023	1155	24.07%	21.52%	54.41%	-0.44	-5.0	13
2025-01-11	@ Loughgall	W 1-0	36.6	1155	1023	54.41%	21.52%	24.07%	+0.44	+5.0	37
2025-01-17	Glenavon	L 2-3	57.3	1202	1103	53.85%	21.59%	24.56%	+0.42	-8.7	39
2025-01-17	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 3-2	57.3	1103	1202	24.56%	21.59%	53.85%	-0.42	+8.7	28
2025-01-18	Ballymena United	D 0-0	50.1	1101	1091	42.21%	22.46%	35.34%	+0.09	-0.3	22
2025-01-18	@ Carrick Rangers	D 0-0	50.1	1091	1101	35.34%	22.46%	42.21%	-0.09	+0.3	32
2025-01-18	Crusaders	L 0-2	39.1	1173	1147	44.46%	22.38%	33.15%	+0.15	-15.6	30
2025-01-18	@ Coleraine	W 2-0	39.1	1147	1173	33.15%	22.38%	44.46%	-0.15	+15.6	34
2025-01-18	Linfield	L 1-3	37.6	1160	1345	19.10%	20.49%	60.41%	-0.64	-6.6	37
2025-01-18	@ Portadown	W 3-1	37.6	1345	1160	60.41%	20.49%	19.10%	+0.64	+6.6	54
2025-01-18	Loughgall	W 2-0	29.7	1214	1018	64.32%	19.57%	16.10%	+0.79	+6.4	34
2025-01-18	@ Cliftonville	L 0-2	29.7	1018	1214	16.10%	19.57%	64.32%	-0.79	-6.4	13
2025-01-25	Ballymena United	W 2-1	38.7	1348	1091	69.89%	17.88%	12.23%	+1.02	+2.4	35
2025-01-25	@ Larne	L 1-2	38.7	1091	1348	12.23%	17.88%	69.89%	-1.02	-2.4	32
2025-01-25	Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	46.7	1112	1101	42.33%	22.45%	35.22%	+0.09	+6.5	31
2025-01-25	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	46.7	1101	1112	35.22%	22.45%	42.33%	-0.09	-6.5	22
2025-01-25	Cliftonville	W 2-1	42.9	1351	1220	57.63%	21.02%	21.35%	+0.55	+4.2	57
2025-01-25	@ Linfield	L 1-2	42.9	1220	1351	21.35%	21.02%	57.63%	-0.55	-4.2	34
2025-01-25	Coleraine	D 1-1	55.5	1193	1157	45.75%	22.32%	31.94%	+0.19	-0.5	40
2025-01-25	@ Dungannon Swifts	D 1-1	55.5	1157	1193	31.94%	22.32%	45.75%	-0.19	+0.5	31
2025-01-25	Glentoran	L 1-2	39.1	1012	1273	13.60%	18.56%	67.84%	-0.93	-2.7	13
2025-01-25	@ Loughgall	W 2-1	39.1	1273	1012	67.84%	18.56%	13.60%	+0.93	+2.7	41
2025-01-25	Portadown	W 3-2	52.1	1162	1153	42.00%	22.46%	35.54%	+0.09	+6.2	37
2025-01-25	@ Crusaders	L 2-3	52.1	1153	1162	35.54%	22.46%	42.00%	-0.09	-6.2	37
2025-01-28	Crusaders	W 2-1	40.9	1356	1168	63.53%	19.77%	16.69%	+0.76	+3.3	60
2025-01-28	@ Linfield	L 1-2	40.9	1168	1356	16.69%	19.77%	63.53%	-0.76	-3.3	37
2025-02-01	Portadown	D 1-1	56.7	1350	1147	65.08%	19.37%	15.55%	+0.82	-2.1	36
2025-02-01	@ Larne	D 1-1	56.7	1147	1350	15.55%	19.37%	65.08%	-0.82	+2.1	38
2025-02-04	Cliftonville	D 0-0	50.2	1158	1216	32.73%	22.36%	44.91%	-0.16	+0.5	32
2025-02-04	@ Coleraine	D 0-0	50.2	1216	1158	44.91%	22.36%	32.73%	+0.16	-0.5	35
2025-02-04	Larne	L 1-2	39.5	1094	1348	14.05%	18.76%	67.19%	-0.90	-2.8	22
2025-02-04	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	39.5	1348	1094	67.19%	18.76%	14.05%	+0.90	+2.8	39
2025-02-07	Linfield	D 2-2	63.3	1089	1359	13.07%	18.30%	68.63%	-0.96	+1.8	33
2025-02-07	@ Ballymena United	D 2-2	63.3	1359	1089	68.63%	18.30%	13.07%	+0.96	-1.8	61
2025-02-08	Coleraine	L 0-1	39.1	1091	1159	31.53%	22.30%	46.18%	-0.20	-6.3	22
2025-02-08	@ Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	39.1	1159	1091	46.18%	22.30%	31.53%	+0.20	+6.3	35
2025-02-08	Crusaders	L 0-1	48.4	1351	1165	63.42%	19.80%	16.78%	+0.75	-11.2	39
2025-02-08	@ Larne	W 1-0	48.4	1165	1351	16.78%	19.80%	63.42%	-0.75	+11.2	40
2025-02-08	Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	37.7	1276	1193	51.91%	21.82%	26.27%	+0.36	+5.4	44
2025-02-08	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	37.7	1193	1276	26.27%	21.82%	51.91%	-0.36	-5.4	40
2025-02-09	Portadown	D 2-2	62.0	1215	1149	49.74%	22.04%	28.22%	+0.30	-0.6	36
2025-02-09	@ Cliftonville	D 2-2	62.0	1149	1215	28.22%	22.04%	49.74%	-0.30	+0.7	39
2025-02-11	Larne	W 1-0	41.8	1357	1340	43.19%	22.43%	34.38%	+0.12	+6.7	64
2025-02-11	@ Linfield	L 0-1	41.8	1340	1357	34.38%	22.43%	43.19%	-0.12	-6.7	39
2025-02-12	Carrick Rangers	W 3-0	29.8	1215	1085	57.42%	21.06%	21.52%	+0.54	+12.3	39
2025-02-12	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	29.8	1085	1215	21.52%	21.06%	57.42%	-0.54	-12.3	22
2025-02-14	Glentoran	L 1-2	43.9	1165	1281	25.69%	21.75%	52.56%	-0.38	-5.0	35
2025-02-14	@ Coleraine	W 2-1	43.9	1281	1165	52.56%	21.75%	25.69%	+0.38	+5.0	47
2025-02-15	Ballymena United	W 3-1	39.7	1176	1090	52.24%	21.79%	25.97%	+0.37	+8.7	43
2025-02-15	@ Crusaders	L 1-3	39.7	1090	1176	25.97%	21.79%	52.24%	-0.37	-8.7	33
2025-02-15	Carrick Rangers	W 3-1	38.6	1187	1073	55.71%	21.33%	22.96%	+0.48	+7.8	43
2025-02-15	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 1-3	38.6	1073	1187	22.96%	21.33%	55.71%	-0.48	-7.8	22
2025-02-15	Cliftonville	W 3-1	47.5	1118	1227	26.54%	21.86%	51.60%	-0.36	+15.3	34
2025-02-15	@ Glenavon	L 1-3	47.5	1227	1118	51.60%	21.86%	26.54%	+0.36	-15.3	39
2025-02-15	Larne	W 2-0	43.5	1150	1333	19.24%	20.53%	60.23%	-0.64	+20.2	42
2025-02-15	@ Portadown	L 0-2	43.5	1333	1150	60.23%	20.53%	19.24%	+0.64	-20.2	39
2025-02-15	Loughgall	W 1-0	29.9	1364	1009	77.27%	14.88%	7.85%	+1.38	+1.6	67
2025-02-15	@ Linfield	L 0-1	29.9	1009	1364	7.85%	14.88%	77.27%	-1.38	-1.6	13
2025-02-18	Glenavon	D 1-1	56.4	1313	1134	62.74%	19.97%	17.29%	+0.73	-1.9	40
2025-02-18	@ Larne	D 1-1	56.4	1134	1313	17.29%	19.97%	62.74%	-0.73	+1.9	35
2025-02-18	Glentoran	D 1-1	56.2	1082	1286	17.52%	20.04%	62.44%	-0.72	+1.9	34
2025-02-18	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	56.2	1286	1082	62.44%	20.04%	17.52%	+0.72	-1.9	48
2025-02-21	Glentoran	W 2-0	40.1	1212	1284	30.83%	22.25%	46.92%	-0.22	+16.3	42
2025-02-21	@ Cliftonville	L 0-2	40.1	1284	1212	46.92%	22.25%	30.83%	+0.22	-16.3	48
2025-02-22	Coleraine	L 0-2	44.8	1365	1160	65.30%	19.31%	15.39%	+0.82	-21.7	67
2025-02-22	@ Linfield	W 2-0	44.8	1160	1365	15.39%	19.31%	65.30%	-0.82	+21.7	38
2025-02-22	Crusaders	L 0-1	39.9	1135	1185	33.84%	22.41%	43.75%	-0.13	-6.6	35
2025-02-22	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	39.9	1185	1135	43.75%	22.41%	33.84%	+0.13	+6.6	46
2025-02-22	Dungannon Swifts	L 0-1	46.5	1311	1195	55.85%	21.31%	22.84%	+0.49	-10.0	40
2025-02-22	@ Larne	W 1-0	46.5	1195	1311	22.84%	21.31%	55.85%	-0.49	+10.0	46
2025-02-22	Loughgall	D 0-0	50.1	1065	1008	48.63%	22.13%	29.24%	+0.27	-0.9	23
2025-02-22	@ Carrick Rangers	D 0-0	50.1	1008	1065	29.24%	22.13%	48.63%	-0.27	+0.9	14
2025-02-22	Portadown	W 2-0	40.2	1084	1170	29.12%	22.12%	48.76%	-0.27	+16.8	37
2025-02-22	@ Ballymena United	L 0-2	40.2	1170	1084	48.76%	22.12%	29.12%	+0.27	-16.8	42
2025-02-26	Larne	L 1-4	31.0	1008	1301	11.83%	17.66%	70.51%	-1.05	-5.7	14
2025-02-26	@ Loughgall	W 4-1	31.0	1301	1008	70.51%	17.66%	11.83%	+1.05	+5.7	43
2025-03-01	Portadown	W 2-0	35.6	1182	1153	44.70%	22.37%	32.93%	+0.16	+12.2	41
2025-03-01	@ Coleraine	L 0-2	35.6	1153	1182	32.93%	22.37%	44.70%	-0.16	-12.2	42
2025-03-04	Ballymena United	W 1-0	34.6	1268	1100	61.55%	20.25%	18.21%	+0.68	+3.8	51
2025-03-04	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	34.6	1100	1268	18.21%	20.25%	61.55%	-0.68	-3.9	37
2025-03-04	Glenavon	L 0-2	32.8	1003	1129	24.66%	21.61%	53.74%	-0.42	-9.6	14
2025-03-04	@ Loughgall	W 2-0	32.8	1129	1003	53.74%	21.61%	24.66%	+0.42	+9.6	38
2025-03-04	Larne	W 1-0	48.7	1064	1307	14.80%	19.07%	66.13%	-0.86	+11.7	26
2025-03-04	@ Carrick Rangers	L 0-1	48.7	1307	1064	66.13%	19.07%	14.80%	+0.86	-11.7	43
2025-03-07	Linfield	L 0-2	32.4	1192	1344	22.04%	21.16%	56.81%	-0.52	-8.7	46
2025-03-07	@ Crusaders	W 2-0	32.4	1344	1192	56.81%	21.16%	22.04%	+0.52	+8.7	70
2025-03-08	Ballymena United	L 0-3	39.9	1205	1097	55.01%	21.43%	23.56%	+0.46	-27.1	46
2025-03-08	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 3-0	39.9	1097	1205	23.56%	21.43%	55.01%	-0.46	+27.1	40
2025-03-08	Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	38.1	1141	1076	49.65%	22.05%	28.31%	+0.30	+5.7	45
2025-03-08	@ Portadown	L 0-1	38.1	1076	1141	28.31%	22.05%	49.65%	-0.30	-5.7	26
2025-03-08	Coleraine	L 0-1	39.7	1138	1194	33.04%	22.38%	44.58%	-0.16	-6.5	38
2025-03-08	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	39.7	1194	1138	44.58%	22.38%	33.04%	+0.16	+6.5	44
2025-03-08	Larne	L 0-1	31.6	993	1295	11.34%	17.38%	71.28%	-1.08	-2.4	14
2025-03-08	@ Loughgall	W 1-0	31.6	1295	993	71.28%	17.38%	11.34%	+1.08	+2.4	46
2025-03-11	Larne	L 1-2	41.9	1124	1297	20.06%	20.73%	59.20%	-0.60	-4.0	40
2025-03-11	@ Ballymena United	W 2-1	41.9	1297	1124	59.20%	20.73%	20.06%	+0.60	+4.0	49
2025-03-12	Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	40.1	1228	1178	47.63%	22.20%	30.17%	+0.24	-16.5	42
2025-03-12	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	40.1	1178	1228	30.17%	22.20%	47.63%	-0.24	+16.5	49
2025-03-12	Glenavon	D 3-3	66.0	1272	1132	58.60%	20.85%	20.56%	+0.58	-1.0	52
2025-03-12	@ Glentoran	D 3-3	66.0	1132	1272	20.56%	20.85%	58.60%	-0.58	+1.0	39
2025-03-15	Cliftonville	W 1-0	44.5	1120	1212	28.50%	22.06%	49.44%	-0.29	+9.0	43
2025-03-15	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	44.5	1212	1120	49.44%	22.06%	28.50%	+0.29	-9.0	42
2025-03-15	Coleraine	D 1-1	56.1	1301	1200	54.10%	21.56%	24.34%	+0.43	-1.2	50
2025-03-15	@ Larne	D 1-1	56.1	1200	1301	24.34%	21.56%	54.10%	-0.43	+1.2	45
2025-03-15	Dungannon Swifts	D 1-1	55.5	1147	1195	34.06%	22.42%	43.52%	-0.13	+0.4	46
2025-03-15	@ Portadown	D 1-1	55.5	1195	1147	43.52%	22.42%	34.06%	+0.13	-0.4	50
2025-03-15	Glenavon	W 2-0	29.3	1352	1133	66.60%	18.94%	14.46%	+0.88	+5.8	73
2025-03-15	@ Linfield	L 0-2	29.3	1133	1352	14.46%	18.94%	66.60%	-0.88	-5.8	39
2025-03-15	Glentoran	D 0-0	50.9	1070	1271	17.80%	20.13%	62.07%	-0.70	+2.1	27
2025-03-15	@ Carrick Rangers	D 0-0	50.9	1271	1070	62.07%	20.13%	17.80%	+0.70	-2.1	53
2025-03-15	Loughgall	D 1-1	56.2	1183	991	64.01%	19.65%	16.34%	+0.77	-2.0	47
2025-03-15	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	56.2	991	1183	16.34%	19.65%	64.01%	-0.77	+2.0	15
2025-03-18	Cliftonville	D 2-2	61.9	1202	1202	40.63%	22.49%	36.88%	+0.05	-0.1	46
2025-03-18	@ Coleraine	D 2-2	61.9	1202	1202	36.88%	22.49%	40.63%	-0.05	+0.1	43
2025-03-18	Larne	D 2-2	62.5	1269	1300	36.31%	22.48%	41.21%	-0.06	+0.1	54
2025-03-18	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	62.5	1300	1269	41.21%	22.48%	36.31%	+0.06	-0.1	51
2025-03-22	Ballymena United	W 2-1	52.3	993	1129	23.64%	21.45%	54.92%	-0.46	+9.3	18
2025-03-22	@ Loughgall	L 1-2	52.3	1129	993	54.92%	21.45%	23.64%	+0.46	-9.3	43
2025-03-22	Carrick Rangers	W 3-0	29.7	1203	1072	57.52%	21.04%	21.44%	+0.54	+12.3	46
2025-03-22	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	29.7	1072	1203	21.44%	21.04%	57.52%	-0.54	-12.3	27
2025-03-22	Crusaders	L 0-1	45.5	1269	1181	52.53%	21.75%	25.71%	+0.38	-9.5	54
2025-03-22	@ Glentoran	W 1-0	45.5	1181	1269	25.71%	21.75%	52.53%	-0.38	+9.5	50
2025-03-22	Larne	L 0-1	35.5	1127	1300	20.13%	20.75%	59.12%	-0.60	-4.2	39
2025-03-22	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	35.5	1300	1127	59.12%	20.75%	20.13%	+0.60	+4.2	54
2025-03-22	Portadown	W 1-0	38.6	1201	1147	48.20%	22.16%	29.63%	+0.26	+6.0	49
2025-03-22	@ Coleraine	L 0-1	38.6	1147	1201	29.63%	22.16%	48.20%	-0.26	-6.0	46
2025-03-24	Linfield	L 0-3	30.1	1194	1358	20.94%	20.93%	58.13%	-0.56	-12.0	50
2025-03-24	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 3-0	30.1	1358	1194	58.13%	20.93%	20.94%	+0.56	+12.0	76

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2024-09-07	10.78%	Ballymena United	1065	1	@ Larne	1350	0
2	2025-03-04	14.80%	@ Carrick Rangers	1064	1	Larne	1307	0
3	2025-02-22	15.39%	Coleraine	1160	2	@ Linfield	1365	0
4	2024-10-27	15.87%	@ Portadown	1107	2	Larne	1334	1
5	2025-02-08	16.78%	Crusaders	1165	1	@ Larne	1351	0
6	2024-10-06	17.16%	Dungannon Swifts	1185	3	@ Larne	1366	0
7	2024-10-26	17.59%	Loughgall	1038	3	@ Dungannon Swifts	1214	1
8	2024-10-05	18.11%	@ Carrick Rangers	1052	2	Cliftonville	1249	0
9	2024-11-16	18.90%	Ballymena United	1102	1	@ Cliftonville	1262	0
10	2025-02-15	19.24%	@ Portadown	1150	2	Larne	1333	0
11	2024-09-14	19.94%	@ Ballymena United	1078	1	Glentoran	1253	0
12	2024-09-14	20.29%	Glenavon	1089	1	@ Crusaders	1232	0
13	2024-09-21	21.17%	@ Ballymena United	1106	3	Cliftonville	1268	2
14	2024-11-16	22.78%	Portadown	1139	2	@ Glentoran	1255	0
15	2025-02-22	22.84%	Dungannon Swifts	1195	1	@ Larne	1311	0
16	2024-09-21	22.99%	Portadown	1099	3	@ Crusaders	1213	0
17	2025-03-08	23.56%	Ballymena United	1097	3	@ Dungannon Swifts	1205	0
18	2025-03-22	23.64%	@ Loughgall	993	2	Ballymena United	1129	1
19	2024-11-16	23.68%	@ Carrick Rangers	1078	3	Crusaders	1214	0
20	2025-01-17	24.56%	Glenavon	1103	3	@ Dungannon Swifts	1202	2
21	2024-12-17	24.63%	@ Glenavon	1057	3	Crusaders	1183	1
22	2024-10-26	24.95%	@ Coleraine	1141	2	Glentoran	1264	1
23	2025-03-22	25.71%	Crusaders	1181	1	@ Glentoran	1269	0
24	2024-12-26	26.03%	@ Glenavon	1070	2	Portadown	1183	0
25	2025-02-15	26.54%	@ Glenavon	1118	3	Cliftonville	1227	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-10-06	30.55	Dungannon Swifts	3	1185	17.16%	@ Larne	0	1366	62.92%	19.93%
2	2024-09-21	27.40	Portadown	3	1099	22.99%	@ Crusaders	0	1213	55.68%	21.34%
3	2025-03-08	27.11	Ballymena United	3	1097	23.56%	@ Dungannon Swifts	0	1205	55.01%	21.43%
4	2024-11-16	27.05	@ Carrick Rangers	3	1078	23.68%	Crusaders	0	1214	54.86%	21.45%
5	2024-11-02	22.28	@ Loughgall	3	1056	33.87%	Glenavon	0	1105	43.71%	22.41%
6	2025-01-11	22.23	Dungannon Swifts	5	1180	38.31%	@ Crusaders	1	1169	39.19%	22.50%
7	2024-11-01	21.80	Portadown	3	1118	35.01%	@ Ballymena United	0	1131	42.54%	22.45%
8	2025-02-22	21.74	Coleraine	2	1160	15.39%	@ Linfield	0	1365	65.30%	19.31%
9	2024-10-05	20.67	@ Carrick Rangers	2	1052	18.11%	Cliftonville	0	1249	61.68%	20.22%
10	2024-11-16	20.50	Coleraine	4	1165	49.67%	@ Loughgall	0	1071	28.29%	22.04%
11	2025-02-15	20.24	@ Portadown	2	1150	19.24%	Larne	0	1333	60.23%	20.53%
12	2024-08-17	20.06	@ Loughgall	3	1128	39.21%	Carrick Rangers	0	1139	38.29%	22.50%
13	2024-09-28	19.75	Crusaders	4	1186	51.01%	@ Loughgall	0	1082	27.08%	21.92%
14	2024-11-16	18.94	Portadown	2	1139	22.78%	@ Glentoran	0	1255	55.92%	21.30%
15	2024-11-02	18.63	@ Coleraine	4	1150	34.32%	Dungannon Swifts	1	1196	43.25%	22.43%
16	2024-09-28	18.33	@ Dungannon Swifts	4	1167	53.51%	Carrick Rangers	0	1070	24.85%	21.63%
17	2024-10-26	18.07	Loughgall	3	1038	17.59%	@ Dungannon Swifts	1	1214	62.34%	20.06%
18	2024-09-17	17.90	Ballymena United	4	1088	36.34%	@ Carrick Rangers	1	1091	41.18%	22.48%
19	2024-12-26	17.82	@ Glenavon	2	1070	26.03%	Portadown	0	1183	52.18%	21.79%
20	2024-12-14	17.49	@ Portadown	2	1159	27.01%	Cliftonville	0	1264	51.08%	21.91%
21	2024-08-24	17.43	Glenavon	2	1085	27.22%	@ Coleraine	0	1159	50.84%	21.93%
22	2025-02-22	16.81	@ Ballymena United	2	1084	29.12%	Portadown	0	1170	48.76%	22.12%
23	2024-12-26	16.51	@ Crusaders	2	1160	30.08%	Cliftonville	0	1239	47.73%	22.20%
24	2025-03-12	16.48	Dungannon Swifts	2	1178	30.17%	@ Cliftonville	0	1228	47.63%	22.20%
25	2025-02-21	16.27	@ Cliftonville	2	1212	30.83%	Glentoran	0	1284	46.92%	22.25%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-03-12	66.0	@ Glentoran	3	1272	58.60%	Glenavon	3	1132	20.56%	20.85%
2	2024-11-30	65.6	@ Glenavon	3	1056	25.09%	Coleraine	3	1178	53.24%	21.67%
3	2025-02-07	63.3	@ Ballymena United	2	1089	13.07%	Linfield	2	1359	68.63%	18.30%
4	2024-08-30	62.8	@ Portadown	2	1080	15.65%	Linfield	2	1310	64.95%	19.40%
5	2024-11-30	62.6	@ Loughgall	2	1039	17.36%	Glentoran	2	1245	62.65%	19.99%
6	2025-03-18	62.5	@ Glentoran	2	1269	36.31%	Larne	2	1300	41.21%	22.48%
7	2025-02-09	62.0	@ Cliftonville	2	1215	49.74%	Portadown	2	1149	28.22%	22.04%
8	2024-08-20	61.9	@ Loughgall	2	1148	50.01%	Portadown	2	1080	27.98%	22.01%
9	2024-11-30	61.9	@ Crusaders	2	1194	42.94%	Dungannon Swifts	2	1179	34.63%	22.44%
10	2024-12-26	61.9	@ Coleraine	2	1166	48.98%	Ballymena United	2	1105	28.92%	22.10%
11	2025-03-18	61.9	@ Coleraine	2	1202	40.63%	Cliftonville	2	1202	36.88%	22.49%
12	2024-09-07	61.8	@ Glenavon	2	1089	36.23%	Loughgall	2	1121	41.29%	22.48%
13	2024-09-17	61.8	@ Portadown	2	1099	33.02%	Coleraine	2	1154	44.61%	22.37%
14	2024-09-21	58.4	@ Ballymena United	3	1106	21.17%	Cliftonville	2	1268	57.84%	20.98%
15	2025-01-17	57.3	Glenavon	3	1103	24.56%	@ Dungannon Swifts	2	1202	53.85%	21.59%
16	2025-02-01	56.7	@ Larne	1	1350	65.08%	Portadown	1	1147	15.55%	19.37%
17	2024-09-01	56.6	@ Coleraine	1	1142	17.08%	Larne	1	1352	63.02%	19.90%
18	2024-10-19	56.4	@ Larne	1	1336	57.42%	Crusaders	1	1206	21.52%	21.06%
19	2024-12-01	56.4	@ Larne	1	1330	49.96%	Cliftonville	1	1263	28.03%	22.02%
20	2025-02-18	56.4	@ Larne	1	1313	62.74%	Glenavon	1	1134	17.29%	19.97%
21	2024-10-19	56.3	@ Glentoran	1	1266	63.31%	Carrick Rangers	1	1081	16.86%	19.83%
22	2025-02-18	56.2	@ Ballymena United	1	1082	17.52%	Glentoran	1	1286	62.44%	20.04%
23	2025-03-15	56.2	@ Crusaders	1	1183	64.01%	Loughgall	1	991	16.34%	19.65%
24	2025-03-15	56.1	@ Larne	1	1301	54.10%	Coleraine	1	1200	24.34%	21.56%
25	2024-08-24	55.8	@ Crusaders	1	1227	36.14%	Cliftonville	1	1260	41.38%	22.48%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2025-01-11	27.0	@ Linfield	3	1337	67.35%	Carrick Rangers	0	1109	13.94%	18.71%
2	2024-11-23	27.7	@ Cliftonville	4	1251	64.78%	Loughgall	0	1051	15.77%	19.45%
3	2024-09-24	28.0	@ Larne	2	1352	70.63%	Loughgall	0	1086	11.76%	17.62%
4	2024-08-20	28.7	Linfield	3	1287	61.15%	@ Glenavon	0	1096	18.52%	20.33%
5	2025-03-15	29.3	@ Linfield	2	1352	66.60%	Glenavon	0	1133	14.46%	18.94%
6	2024-11-09	29.7	@ Linfield	2	1309	64.80%	Ballymena United	0	1109	15.75%	19.44%
7	2024-11-09	29.7	Glentoran	3	1243	57.69%	@ Glenavon	0	1083	21.30%	21.01%
8	2024-12-14	29.7	@ Linfield	3	1319	58.73%	Coleraine	0	1177	20.45%	20.82%
9	2025-01-18	29.7	@ Cliftonville	2	1214	64.32%	Loughgall	0	1018	16.10%	19.57%
10	2025-03-22	29.7	@ Cliftonville	3	1203	57.52%	Carrick Rangers	0	1072	21.44%	21.04%
11	2025-02-12	29.8	@ Cliftonville	3	1215	57.42%	Carrick Rangers	0	1085	21.52%	21.06%
12	2025-02-15	29.9	@ Linfield	1	1364	77.27%	Loughgall	0	1009	7.85%	14.88%
13	2025-03-24	30.1	Linfield	3	1358	58.13%	@ Dungannon Swifts	0	1194	20.94%	20.93%
14	2024-08-10	30.6	Linfield	2	1273	61.57%	@ Ballymena United	0	1077	18.19%	20.24%
15	2024-09-28	30.7	Linfield	3	1305	55.34%	@ Coleraine	0	1165	23.27%	21.39%
16	2024-09-28	31.0	@ Dungannon Swifts	4	1167	53.51%	Carrick Rangers	0	1070	24.85%	21.63%
17	2025-02-26	31.0	Larne	4	1301	70.51%	@ Loughgall	1	1008	11.83%	17.66%
18	2024-09-17	31.6	@ Glentoran	2	1242	58.19%	Loughgall	0	1106	20.89%	20.92%
19	2025-03-08	31.6	Larne	1	1295	71.28%	@ Loughgall	0	993	11.34%	17.38%
20	2024-09-28	31.8	Crusaders	4	1186	51.01%	@ Loughgall	0	1082	27.08%	21.92%
21	2024-12-21	32.0	@ Linfield	1	1335	70.35%	Glenavon	0	1073	11.93%	17.72%
22	2024-11-16	32.2	Coleraine	4	1165	49.67%	@ Loughgall	0	1071	28.29%	22.04%
23	2025-03-07	32.4	Linfield	2	1344	56.81%	@ Crusaders	0	1192	22.04%	21.16%
24	2025-01-10	32.8	@ Larne	2	1339	55.93%	Cliftonville	0	1223	22.77%	21.30%
25	2025-03-04	32.8	Glenavon	2	1129	53.74%	@ Loughgall	0	1003	24.66%	21.61%