2023-24 NIFL Premiership Season

228 games

Final

Champion

Larne

90 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Carrick Rangers

3.39 points above expected

50 points · 46.61 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Newry City

3.93 points below expected

17 points · 20.93 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Larne	33	24	8	1	80	69	17	+52	68.23	+11.77
2	Linfield	33	25	3	5	78	76	35	+41	68.72	+9.28
3	Cliftonville	33	22	4	7	70	73	30	+43	65.72	+4.28
4	Glentoran	33	16	8	9	56	68	37	+31	61.63	-5.63
5	Crusaders	33	16	7	10	55	55	36	+19	58.01	-3.01
6	Coleraine	33	11	8	14	41	41	57	-16	46.70	-5.70
7	Loughgall	33	11	6	16	39	50	59	-9	32.87	+6.13
8	Carrick Rangers	33	11	5	17	38	43	65	-22	32.76	+5.24
9	Glenavon	33	10	4	19	34	40	60	-20	37.91	-3.91
10	Dungannon Swifts	33	8	8	17	32	52	67	-15	30.77	+1.23
11	Ballymena United	33	5	4	24	19	20	63	-43	32.80	-13.80
12	Newry City	33	4	5	24	17	22	83	-61	23.47	-6.47

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Larne	38	27	9	2	90	85	21	+64	90.30	-0.30
2	Linfield	38	26	7	5	85	82	40	+42	86.32	-1.32
3	Cliftonville	38	23	6	9	75	80	43	+37	77.56	-2.56
4	Crusaders	38	19	7	12	64	61	43	+18	61.72	+2.28
5	Glentoran	38	17	9	12	60	74	43	+31	61.85	-1.85
6	Coleraine	38	12	10	16	46	47	69	-22	44.54	+1.46

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Carrick Rangers	38	15	5	18	50	54	72	-18	46.61	+3.39
2	Dungannon Swifts	38	13	8	17	47	64	69	-5	45.57	+1.43
3	Loughgall	38	13	6	19	45	60	68	-8	42.71	+2.29
4	Glenavon	38	11	4	23	37	45	70	-25	40.85	-3.85
5	Ballymena United	38	8	4	26	28	29	70	-41	24.65	+3.35
6	Newry City	38	4	5	29	17	26	99	-73	20.93	-3.93

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Carrick Rangers	50	46.61	+3.39
2	Ballymena United	28	24.65	+3.35
3	Loughgall	45	42.71	+2.29
4	Crusaders	64	61.72	+2.28
5	Coleraine	46	44.54	+1.46

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Newry City	17	20.93	-3.93
2	Glenavon	37	40.85	-3.85
3	Cliftonville	75	77.56	-2.56
4	Glentoran	60	61.85	-1.85
5	Linfield	85	86.32	-1.32

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Dungannon Swifts	5	Apr 6 – Apr 27	1 in 48
2	Glenavon	5	Oct 28 – Nov 24	1 in 44
3	Linfield	8	Sep 23 – Nov 4	1 in 43
4	Larne	6	Oct 20 – Nov 24	1 in 39
5	Carrick Rangers	4	Apr 13 – Apr 27	1 in 19

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Coleraine	6	Dec 16 – Jan 20	1 in 639
2	Glentoran	3	Sep 22 – Oct 6	1 in 60
3	Cliftonville	2	Feb 20 – Feb 24	1 in 31
4	Ballymena United	6	Aug 4 – Sep 2	1 in 30
5	Newry City	7	Oct 13 – Nov 24	1 in 29

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Coleraine	8	Feb 16 – Apr 16	1 in 1,270
2	Larne	24	Sep 30 – Apr 2	1 in 178
3	Loughgall	4	Aug 19 – Sep 16	1 in 21
4	Linfield	9	Feb 20 – Apr 27	1 in 21
5	Dungannon Swifts	6	Mar 23 – Apr 27	1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Linfield	3	Jan 27 – Feb 16	1 in 50
2	Newry City	19	Oct 13 – Feb 24	1 in 47
3	Coleraine	6	Dec 16 – Jan 20	1 in 44
4	Glentoran	4	Sep 16 – Oct 6	1 in 39
5	Ballymena United	9	Oct 28 – Dec 23	1 in 27

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Larne	1572	90	+31	10	10.4	-0.4
Linfield	1449	85	+4	7	8.3	-1.3
Cliftonville	1383	75	-26	5	7.2	-2.2
Crusaders	1319	64	-5	9	6.2	+2.8
Glentoran	1380	60	+1	4	6.7	-2.7
Carrick Rangers	1155	50	+25	12	8.0	+4.0
Dungannon Swifts	1200	47	+76	15	8.0	+7.0
Coleraine	1201	46	-5	5	3.5	+1.5
Loughgall	1157	45	-16	6	8.5	-2.5
Glenavon	1127	37	-54	3	8.3	-5.3
Ballymena United	1058	28	+22	9	5.8	+3.2
Newry City	898	17	-54	0	3.6	-3.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BU	CR	CLI	COL	CRU	DS	GLE	GLE	LAR	LIN	LOU	NC
Ballymena United	—	1-0-3 5.24	0-0-3 1.40	2-0-1 2.70	0-0-3 2.10	1-1-2 5.42	2-0-2 4.61	0-0-3 1.79	0-1-2 1.48	0-0-3 1.46	1-0-3 5.20	1-2-1 7.23
Carrick Rangers	3-0-1 6.02	—	0-0-3 1.66	2-1-0 2.73	0-0-3 2.03	3-0-1 5.61	1-0-3 5.10	2-1-0 1.52	0-0-3 1.37	0-1-2 1.40	2-2-0 5.36	2-0-2 7.70
Cliftonville	3-0-0 7.13	3-0-0 6.85	—	3-1-0 8.30	3-0-1 6.33	2-0-1 7.12	3-0-0 6.38	1-2-1 5.87	0-1-3 4.61	0-1-3 5.42	2-1-0 6.94	3-0-0 7.27
Coleraine	1-0-2 5.76	0-1-2 5.73	0-1-3 3.00	—	1-1-2 3.79	0-2-1 5.83	2-1-0 4.63	2-1-1 3.49	0-2-2 2.65	1-1-2 2.81	2-0-1 5.85	3-0-0 6.35
Crusaders	3-0-0 6.38	3-0-0 6.45	1-0-3 4.93	2-1-1 7.48	—	2-1-0 6.44	3-0-0 5.95	0-2-2 5.37	1-1-2 3.68	0-0-4 4.06	2-1-0 6.50	2-1-0 7.14
Dungannon Swifts	2-1-1 5.84	1-0-3 5.65	1-0-2 1.41	1-2-0 2.64	0-1-2 2.04	—	2-0-2 5.12	0-1-2 1.67	0-2-1 1.48	1-0-2 1.47	2-0-2 5.42	3-1-0 7.02
Glenavon	2-0-2 6.66	3-0-1 6.16	0-0-3 2.11	0-1-2 3.82	0-0-3 2.51	2-0-2 6.14	—	0-1-2 2.13	0-0-3 1.65	0-1-2 1.92	1-1-2 6.17	3-0-1 7.99
Glentoran	3-0-0 6.71	0-1-2 6.99	1-2-1 5.39	1-1-2 7.79	2-2-0 5.89	2-1-0 6.83	2-1-0 6.35	—	0-0-4 4.40	1-1-2 4.61	2-0-1 6.67	3-0-0 7.44
Larne	2-1-0 7.05	3-0-0 7.16	3-1-0 6.65	2-2-0 8.68	2-1-1 7.60	1-2-0 7.04	3-0-0 6.86	4-0-0 6.87	—	2-2-0 5.95	2-0-1 7.25	3-0-0 7.42
Linfield	3-0-0 7.06	2-1-0 7.13	3-1-0 5.84	2-1-1 8.50	4-0-0 7.21	2-0-1 7.05	2-1-0 6.57	2-1-1 6.66	0-2-2 5.31	—	3-0-0 7.04	3-0-0 7.54
Loughgall	3-0-1 6.07	0-2-2 5.90	0-1-2 1.57	1-0-2 2.61	0-1-2 1.99	2-0-2 5.84	2-1-1 5.09	1-0-2 1.82	1-0-2 1.29	0-0-3 1.48	—	3-1-0 7.19
Newry City	1-2-1 4.04	2-0-2 3.58	0-0-3 1.29	0-0-3 2.13	0-1-2 1.38	0-1-3 4.25	1-0-3 3.29	0-0-3 1.12	0-0-3 1.14	0-0-3 1.03	0-1-3 4.09	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.89	+10.6
Allowed	0.88	-9.8
Differential	0.94	+5.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.39%	6.58%	7.89%	3.95%	2.63%	1.97%	27.41%
1	6.58%	6.58%	7.89%	3.29%	1.97%	0.88%	27.19%
2	7.89%	7.89%	5.26%	2.19%	1.10%	0.44%	24.78%
3	3.95%	3.29%	2.19%	0.88%	0.44%	—	10.75%
4	2.63%	1.97%	1.10%	0.44%	0.44%	—	6.58%
5+	1.97%	0.88%	0.44%	—	—	—	3.29%
Total	27.41%	27.19%	24.78%	10.75%	6.58%	3.29%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.55	+0.00
SD	1.46	1.46	2.31
CV	0.94	0.94	—
Max	9	9	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 228

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.26%	15.79%	18.42%	7.89%	5.26%	2.63%	55.26%
1	10.53%	5.26%	7.89%	2.63%	—	—	26.32%
2	—	—	—	—	5.26%	2.63%	7.89%
3	—	5.26%	2.63%	—	—	—	7.89%
4	2.63%	—	—	—	—	—	2.63%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.42%	26.32%	28.95%	10.53%	10.53%	5.26%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.76	1.84	-1.08
SD	1.08	1.42	1.85
CV	1.41	0.77	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	10.53%	10.53%	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	28.95%
1	2.63%	2.63%	7.89%	2.63%	2.63%	—	18.42%
2	10.53%	15.79%	5.26%	5.26%	—	—	36.84%
3	—	2.63%	5.26%	5.26%	—	—	13.16%
4	—	—	—	2.63%	—	—	2.63%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.16%	31.58%	28.95%	18.42%	5.26%	2.63%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.42	1.89	-0.47
SD	1.13	1.61	2.11
CV	0.80	0.85	—
Max	4	9	+2
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.26%	2.63%	2.63%	—	—	10.53%
1	7.89%	7.89%	7.89%	2.63%	—	2.63%	28.95%
2	7.89%	7.89%	7.89%	—	—	—	23.68%
3	15.79%	—	2.63%	—	—	—	18.42%
4	2.63%	7.89%	2.63%	—	—	—	13.16%
5+	5.26%	—	—	—	—	—	5.26%
Total	39.47%	28.95%	23.68%	5.26%	—	2.63%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.11	1.13	+0.97
SD	1.39	1.47	2.35
CV	0.66	1.30	—
Max	5	8	+5
Min	0	0	-7

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.89%	—	10.53%	—	2.63%	7.89%	28.95%
1	2.63%	10.53%	5.26%	10.53%	2.63%	—	31.58%
2	7.89%	10.53%	7.89%	2.63%	—	—	28.95%
3	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	—	—	—	7.89%
4	—	2.63%	—	—	—	—	2.63%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.05%	26.32%	26.32%	13.16%	5.26%	7.89%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.24	1.82	-0.58
SD	1.05	1.54	2.16
CV	0.85	0.85	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.26%	7.89%	7.89%	2.63%	—	23.68%
1	13.16%	13.16%	7.89%	—	—	—	34.21%
2	13.16%	7.89%	5.26%	—	—	—	26.32%
3	—	2.63%	—	—	—	—	2.63%
4	5.26%	2.63%	2.63%	—	—	—	10.53%
5+	2.63%	—	—	—	—	—	2.63%
Total	34.21%	31.58%	23.68%	7.89%	2.63%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	1.13	+0.47
SD	1.72	1.07	2.38
CV	1.07	0.95	—
Max	9	4	+9
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.26%	5.26%	5.26%	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	23.68%
1	—	5.26%	13.16%	—	5.26%	—	23.68%
2	7.89%	5.26%	7.89%	5.26%	—	—	26.32%
3	2.63%	5.26%	5.26%	—	2.63%	—	15.79%
4	—	2.63%	2.63%	—	2.63%	—	7.89%
5+	2.63%	—	—	—	—	—	2.63%
Total	18.42%	23.68%	34.21%	7.89%	13.16%	2.63%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.68	1.82	-0.13
SD	1.36	1.35	2.06
CV	0.81	0.75	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	13.16%	10.53%	2.63%	2.63%	—	31.58%
1	7.89%	2.63%	5.26%	13.16%	5.26%	2.63%	36.84%
2	5.26%	2.63%	5.26%	—	5.26%	—	18.42%
3	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	—	—	—	7.89%
4	5.26%	—	—	—	—	—	5.26%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	23.68%	21.05%	23.68%	15.79%	13.16%	2.63%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.84	-0.66
SD	1.14	1.52	2.08
CV	0.96	0.82	—
Max	4	6	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.53%	—	7.89%	5.26%	—	—	23.68%
1	10.53%	2.63%	15.79%	—	—	—	28.95%
2	2.63%	5.26%	10.53%	2.63%	—	—	21.05%
3	2.63%	2.63%	—	—	—	—	5.26%
4	7.89%	—	2.63%	—	—	—	10.53%
5+	7.89%	—	2.63%	—	—	—	10.53%
Total	42.11%	10.53%	39.47%	7.89%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.95	1.13	+0.82
SD	1.96	1.07	2.44
CV	1.01	0.95	—
Max	8	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.53%	5.26%	—	—	—	—	15.79%
1	5.26%	10.53%	—	—	—	—	15.79%
2	18.42%	18.42%	—	—	—	—	36.84%
3	10.53%	—	—	—	—	—	10.53%
4	5.26%	5.26%	—	—	2.63%	—	13.16%
5+	2.63%	5.26%	—	—	—	—	7.89%
Total	52.63%	44.74%	—	—	2.63%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.24	0.55	+1.68
SD	1.75	0.76	1.77
CV	0.78	1.38	—
Max	8	4	+7
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	—	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	—	10.53%
1	10.53%	7.89%	5.26%	—	—	—	23.68%
2	15.79%	13.16%	5.26%	—	—	—	34.21%
3	5.26%	2.63%	5.26%	2.63%	—	—	15.79%
4	2.63%	—	2.63%	2.63%	—	—	7.89%
5+	2.63%	5.26%	—	—	—	—	7.89%
Total	39.47%	28.95%	21.05%	7.89%	2.63%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.16	1.05	+1.11
SD	1.50	1.09	1.94
CV	0.69	1.03	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	2.63%	7.89%	10.53%	—	—	2.63%	23.68%
1	5.26%	5.26%	13.16%	—	2.63%	2.63%	28.95%
2	—	7.89%	5.26%	7.89%	—	—	21.05%
3	5.26%	10.53%	—	2.63%	2.63%	—	21.05%
4	—	2.63%	—	—	—	—	2.63%
5+	—	—	2.63%	—	—	—	2.63%
Total	13.16%	34.21%	31.58%	10.53%	5.26%	5.26%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.58	1.79	-0.21
SD	1.29	1.36	1.97
CV	0.81	0.76	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 38

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.26%	10.53%	7.89%	13.16%	10.53%	5.26%	52.63%
1	2.63%	5.26%	5.26%	7.89%	5.26%	2.63%	28.95%
2	5.26%	—	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	2.63%	15.79%
3	—	2.63%	—	—	—	—	2.63%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.16%	18.42%	15.79%	23.68%	18.42%	10.53%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.68	2.61	-1.92
SD	0.84	1.85	2.06
CV	1.23	0.71	—
Max	3	8	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 38

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Larne	1572	90	68.23	+21.77	98.0%	53	59	63	67	73	78	86
Linfield	1449	85	68.72	+16.28	95.0%	41	55	64	69	74	78	87
Cliftonville	1383	75	65.72	+9.28	75.0%	49	52	61	66	70	77	82
Glentoran	1380	60	61.63	-1.63	22.0%	44	47	57	62	66	74	78
Crusaders	1319	64	58.01	+5.99	38.0%	40	47	52	58	64	69	76
Coleraine	1201	46	46.70	-0.70	27.0%	29	35	41	48	51	58	63
Dungannon Swifts	1200	47	30.77	+16.23	59.0%	17	20	26	30	35	42	46
Loughgall	1157	45	32.87	+12.13	84.0%	19	23	27	32	37	45	48
Carrick Rangers	1155	50	32.76	+17.24	80.0%	13	22	28	32	38	44	52
Glenavon	1127	37	37.91	-0.91	33.0%	18	26	32	38	43	49	55
Ballymena United	1058	28	32.80	-4.80	1.0%	18	22	27	32	37	44	51
Newry City	898	17	23.47	-6.47	22.0%	9	13	18	23	29	33	38

Point Totals in Context

Each team's actual results against four model perspectives: simulated points, team Elo, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes. First phase is on the left, second phase on the right; the buttons switch the perspective on both plots at once. Dashed crosshairs at each plot's league means split it into four quadrants.

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

First Phase

Second Phase

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 7% * Slight Edge: 7% to 13% * Clear Edge: 13% to 20.5% * Strong Edge: 20.5% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+0.00%

No Edge

41.23%17.54%41.23%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.

169 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.34 goals

Neutral

-2+0.00+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 3 * Open: 3 to 4 * Wide Open: 4 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.1 * Tight Race: 0.1 to 0.2 * Comfortable: 0.2 to 0.33 * Runaway: 0.33 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.4

Open

123410

Champion Preseason Odds

28%

Larne, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.13/gm

Tight Race

00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 5.65 * Some Luck: 5.65 to 8.48 * Lucky: 8.48 to 11.3 * Wild Swing: 11.3 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.97 * Close: 0.97 to 1.46 * Off: 1.46 to 1.94 * Way Off: 1.94 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

7.25 points

Some Luck

07.0618

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.33

01.222.5

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

98.00%

Larne

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

1.00%

Ballymena United

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.19 * Even: 0.19 to 0.21 * Top-Heavy: 0.21 to 0.25 * Lopsided: 0.25 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.85 * Moderate Separation: 1.85 to 2.05 * Strong Separation: 2.05 to 2.25 * Wide Separation: 2.25 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 70% * Slight Edge: 70% to 75.5% * Clear Edge: 75.5% to 81% * Wide Edge: 81% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 94.5% * Strong Edge: 94.5% to 96.5% * Dominant: 96.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 45.5% * Some Drama: 45.5% to 54.5% * Frequent: 54.5% to 59% * Very Frequent: 59% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 18.5% * Occasional: 18.5% to 23% * Frequent: 23% to 30% * Very Frequent: 30% and up.

Gini Index

0.22

Top-Heavy

00.190.250.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 177.73

2.61

Wide Separation

11.852.253

Interquartile Edge

82%

Wide Edge

50%70%81%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline 97%

97%

Dominant

50%100%

Close Games

Expected

52%

Some Drama

0%48%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Frequent

0%28%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.4 * Slight Separation: 0.4 to 0.44 * Notable Separation: 0.44 to 0.5 * Lopsided: 0.5 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.47 * Some Carryover: 0.47 to 0.62 * Strong Carryover: 0.62 to 0.76 * Near-Lock: 0.76 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Upset-Prone: 22% to 24% * Very Upset-Prone: 24% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 21% * Very Shaky: 21% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.52

Highly Predictable

00.532

Matchup Imbalance

0.45

Notable Separation

00.40.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.09

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.76

Near-Lock

00.470.620.761

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

As Expected

0%23%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

16%

Solid Favorites

0%18%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.11 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.11 to 0.16 * Above Noise: 0.16 to 0.21 * Well Above Noise: 0.21 and up.

Probability calibration

0.79

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

1.12

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.043

Well Within Noise

00.1060.25

Elo Progression Through The Playoffs

How each team's Elo rating moved through the playoff games. Game 0 is the starting Elo just before the first game; each later point is the post-game Elo after that fixture. Steep upward moves are wins over higher-rated opponents; sharp drops are losses to lower-rated opponents.

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase positions when the league split and the final second-phase positions. Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Larne	28.00%	31.00%	19.00%	17.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Linfield	41.00%	24.00%	21.00%	9.00%	3.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cliftonville	19.00%	30.00%	13.00%	24.00%	8.00%	6.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Crusaders	3.00%	6.00%	17.00%	23.00%	37.00%	11.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Glentoran	9.00%	9.00%	29.00%	21.00%	26.00%	2.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Coleraine	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	16.00%	45.00%	16.00%	11.00%	2.00%	3.00%	—	—
Carrick Rangers	—	—	—	—	—	5.00%	11.00%	20.00%	17.00%	25.00%	13.00%	9.00%
Dungannon Swifts	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	10.00%	14.00%	17.00%	22.00%	23.00%	13.00%
Loughgall	—	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	19.00%	18.00%	24.00%	14.00%	15.00%	8.00%
Glenavon	—	—	—	—	3.00%	22.00%	25.00%	18.00%	8.00%	12.00%	10.00%	2.00%
Ballymena United	—	—	—	—	1.00%	5.00%	11.00%	17.00%	23.00%	15.00%	16.00%	12.00%
Newry City	—	—	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	9.00%	9.00%	23.00%	56.00%

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Larne	81.31%	18.42%	0.27%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Linfield	18.65%	78.37%	2.98%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Cliftonville	0.04%	3.21%	96.73%	0.02%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Crusaders	—	—	0.02%	51.38%	48.60%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Glentoran	—	—	—	48.60%	51.39%	0.01%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Coleraine	—	—	—	—	0.01%	99.99%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Carrick Rangers	—	—	—	—	—	—	52.48%	29.49%	13.71%	4.32%	—	—
Dungannon Swifts	—	—	—	—	—	—	34.25%	37.45%	20.57%	7.73%	—	—
Loughgall	—	—	—	—	—	—	9.73%	22.19%	38.79%	29.29%	—	—
Glenavon	—	—	—	—	—	—	3.54%	10.87%	26.93%	58.66%	—	—
Ballymena United	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	80.82%	19.18%
Newry City	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	19.18%	80.82%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Use the buttons to switch between the first-phase distribution and the second-phase championship and relegation groups. Reading a curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position.

Stochastic Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that played all 38 games of the season from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects FULL uncertainty — both the first-phase results and the second-phase results are simulated each iteration. For the playoff-sim version that conditions on the actual first-phase results, see the next table.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Survived Relegation Round	Relegated
Cliftonville	100%	—	—
Coleraine	100%	—	—
Crusaders	100%	—	—
Glentoran	100%	—	—
Larne	100%	—	—
Linfield	100%	—	—
Glenavon	90.00%	9.00%	1.00%
Loughgall	77.00%	19.00%	4.00%
Dungannon Swifts	75.00%	19.00%	6.00%
Carrick Rangers	77.00%	15.00%	8.00%
Ballymena United	65.00%	19.00%	16.00%
Newry City	16.00%	19.00%	65.00%

Actual Second Phase Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 simulations that took the actual first-phase results as FIXED and projected only the second-phase round-robin games, the probability of each team's end-of-season outcome. Reflects the narrower uncertainty that remained once the league split was decided — so contenders and relegation candidates settle into clearer roles here than in the full-season sim above.

Team	Qualified for Championship Round	Survived Relegation Round	Relegated
Carrick Rangers	100%	—	—
Cliftonville	100%	—	—
Coleraine	100%	—	—
Crusaders	100%	—	—
Dungannon Swifts	100%	—	—
Glenavon	100%	—	—
Glentoran	100%	—	—
Larne	100%	—	—
Linfield	100%	—	—
Loughgall	100%	—	—
Ballymena United	—	80.82%	19.18%
Newry City	—	19.18%	80.82%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2023-08-04	Ballymena United	W 2-1	43.0	1298	1204	53.32%	18.34%	28.34%	+0.55	+6.9	3
2023-08-04	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	43.0	1204	1298	28.34%	18.34%	53.32%	-0.55	-6.9	0
2023-08-05	Glentoran	L 0-1	37.2	1232	1360	24.45%	18.11%	57.44%	-0.76	-6.4	0
2023-08-05	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	37.2	1360	1232	57.44%	18.11%	24.45%	+0.76	+6.4	3
2023-08-05	Loughgall	L 0-3	37.3	1101	1085	42.90%	18.60%	38.50%	+0.09	-28.2	0
2023-08-05	@ Newry City	W 3-0	37.3	1085	1101	38.50%	18.60%	42.90%	-0.09	+28.3	3
2023-08-07	Dungannon Swifts	D 4-4	67.1	1355	1117	68.26%	16.96%	14.78%	+1.41	-1.6	1
2023-08-07	@ Larne	D 4-4	67.1	1117	1355	14.78%	16.96%	68.26%	-1.41	+1.6	1
2023-08-11	Coleraine	L 1-2	39.6	1113	1304	18.42%	17.52%	64.06%	-1.13	-4.7	3
2023-08-11	@ Loughgall	W 2-1	39.6	1304	1113	64.06%	17.52%	18.42%	+1.13	+4.6	6
2023-08-11	Crusaders	L 1-2	42.0	1197	1321	24.86%	18.14%	57.00%	-0.74	-6.1	0
2023-08-11	@ Ballymena United	W 2-1	42.0	1321	1197	57.00%	18.14%	24.86%	+0.74	+6.1	3
2023-08-11	Larne	L 1-2	49.1	1366	1354	42.44%	18.60%	38.96%	+0.07	-9.6	3
2023-08-11	@ Glentoran	W 2-1	49.1	1354	1366	38.96%	18.60%	42.44%	-0.07	+9.6	4
2023-08-12	Glenavon	W 3-0	34.1	1301	1225	51.03%	18.43%	30.54%	+0.45	+21.3	3
2023-08-12	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	34.1	1225	1301	30.54%	18.43%	51.03%	-0.45	-21.3	0
2023-08-12	Linfield	L 2-3	43.2	1119	1378	13.35%	16.67%	69.98%	-1.54	-3.2	1
2023-08-12	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 3-2	43.2	1378	1119	69.98%	16.67%	13.35%	+1.54	+3.2	3
2023-08-12	Newry City	L 0-2	41.7	1146	1072	50.78%	18.44%	30.78%	+0.43	-22.5	0
2023-08-12	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-0	41.7	1072	1146	30.78%	18.44%	50.78%	-0.43	+22.5	3
2023-08-15	Ballymena United	W 3-0	30.9	1363	1191	62.22%	17.72%	20.06%	+1.02	+14.6	7
2023-08-15	@ Larne	L 0-3	30.9	1191	1363	20.06%	17.72%	62.22%	-1.02	-14.6	0
2023-08-15	Cliftonville	L 0-3	28.9	1095	1322	15.57%	17.10%	67.33%	-1.35	-11.5	3
2023-08-15	@ Newry City	W 3-0	28.9	1322	1095	67.33%	17.10%	15.57%	+1.35	+11.5	6
2023-08-15	Coleraine	W 2-0	45.5	1123	1309	18.86%	17.58%	63.57%	-1.10	+27.7	3
2023-08-15	@ Carrick Rangers	L 0-2	45.5	1309	1123	63.57%	17.58%	18.86%	+1.10	-27.7	6
2023-08-15	Dungannon Swifts	W 2-0	31.4	1328	1116	65.99%	17.29%	16.73%	+1.26	+8.5	6
2023-08-15	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	31.4	1116	1328	16.73%	17.29%	65.99%	-1.26	-8.5	1
2023-08-15	Glenavon	W 4-2	42.6	1382	1204	62.76%	17.66%	19.58%	+1.05	+7.6	6
2023-08-15	@ Linfield	L 2-4	42.6	1204	1382	19.58%	17.66%	62.76%	-1.05	-7.6	0
2023-08-15	Glentoran	L 0-1	33.2	1109	1356	14.13%	16.83%	69.04%	-1.47	-3.8	3
2023-08-15	@ Loughgall	W 1-0	33.2	1356	1109	69.04%	16.83%	14.13%	+1.47	+3.8	6
2023-08-18	Linfield	L 0-1	34.5	1177	1389	16.65%	17.27%	66.08%	-1.26	-4.5	0
2023-08-18	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	34.5	1389	1177	66.08%	17.27%	16.65%	+1.26	+4.5	9
2023-08-19	Carrick Rangers	W 4-0	29.4	1333	1151	63.23%	17.61%	19.16%	+1.08	+18.3	9
2023-08-19	@ Cliftonville	L 0-4	29.4	1151	1333	19.16%	17.61%	63.23%	-1.08	-18.3	3
2023-08-19	Larne	D 0-0	52.0	1281	1378	27.94%	18.32%	53.74%	-0.57	+1.5	7
2023-08-19	@ Coleraine	D 0-0	52.0	1378	1281	53.74%	18.32%	27.94%	+0.57	-1.5	8
2023-08-19	Loughgall	L 1-2	46.5	1107	1105	41.04%	18.61%	40.35%	+0.01	-9.4	1
2023-08-19	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 2-1	46.5	1105	1107	40.35%	18.61%	41.04%	-0.01	+9.4	6
2023-08-19	Newry City	L 1-3	48.6	1196	1083	55.71%	18.22%	26.08%	+0.67	-21.2	0
2023-08-19	@ Glenavon	W 3-1	48.6	1083	1196	26.08%	18.22%	55.71%	-0.67	+21.2	6
2023-08-22	Carrick Rangers	W 9-0	30.3	1336	1133	65.23%	17.38%	17.39%	+1.21	+36.0	9
2023-08-22	@ Crusaders	L 0-9	30.3	1133	1336	17.39%	17.38%	65.23%	-1.21	-36.0	3
2023-08-22	Cliftonville	W 2-1	47.2	1394	1352	46.62%	18.55%	34.82%	+0.25	+8.2	12
2023-08-22	@ Linfield	L 1-2	47.2	1352	1394	34.82%	18.55%	46.62%	-0.25	-8.2	9
2023-08-25	Coleraine	D 2-2	60.5	1098	1283	18.94%	17.59%	63.47%	-1.10	+1.8	2
2023-08-25	@ Dungannon Swifts	D 2-2	60.5	1283	1098	63.47%	17.59%	18.94%	+1.10	-1.9	8
2023-08-25	Glenavon	D 2-2	60.1	1114	1175	32.36%	18.49%	49.14%	-0.36	+0.7	7
2023-08-25	@ Loughgall	D 2-2	60.1	1175	1114	49.14%	18.49%	32.36%	+0.36	-0.7	1
2023-08-25	Glentoran	L 0-2	32.3	1172	1360	18.66%	17.55%	63.78%	-1.12	-9.4	0
2023-08-25	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	32.3	1360	1172	63.78%	17.55%	18.66%	+1.12	+9.4	9
2023-08-26	Carrick Rangers	D 3-3	65.4	1402	1097	73.32%	15.99%	10.69%	+1.81	-2.2	13
2023-08-26	@ Linfield	D 3-3	65.4	1097	1402	10.69%	15.99%	73.32%	-1.81	+2.2	4
2023-08-26	Crusaders	L 0-4	27.1	1105	1372	12.84%	16.56%	70.60%	-1.59	-12.5	6
2023-08-26	@ Newry City	W 4-0	27.1	1372	1105	70.60%	16.56%	12.84%	+1.59	+12.5	12
2023-08-26	Larne	D 1-1	56.7	1344	1377	36.05%	18.57%	45.37%	-0.20	+0.5	10
2023-08-26	@ Cliftonville	D 1-1	56.7	1377	1344	45.37%	18.57%	36.05%	+0.20	-0.5	9
2023-08-29	Crusaders	D 2-2	62.7	1370	1385	38.57%	18.60%	42.83%	-0.09	+0.2	10
2023-08-29	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	62.7	1385	1370	42.83%	18.60%	38.57%	+0.09	-0.2	13
2023-09-01	Dungannon Swifts	W 2-1	46.5	1099	1100	40.55%	18.61%	40.84%	-0.01	+9.3	7
2023-09-01	@ Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	46.5	1100	1099	40.84%	18.61%	40.55%	+0.01	-9.3	2
2023-09-02	Ballymena United	W 1-0	41.0	1175	1163	42.40%	18.60%	39.00%	+0.07	+9.5	4
2023-09-02	@ Glenavon	L 0-1	41.0	1163	1175	39.00%	18.60%	42.40%	-0.07	-9.5	0
2023-09-02	Cliftonville	W 1-0	42.3	1370	1344	44.36%	18.59%	37.05%	+0.15	+9.1	13
2023-09-02	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	42.3	1344	1370	37.05%	18.59%	44.36%	-0.15	-9.2	10
2023-09-02	Linfield	L 1-3	41.1	1281	1400	25.44%	18.18%	56.38%	-0.70	-10.8	8
2023-09-02	@ Coleraine	W 3-1	41.1	1400	1281	56.38%	18.18%	25.44%	+0.70	+10.8	16
2023-09-02	Loughgall	D 1-1	55.6	1384	1115	70.75%	16.53%	12.73%	+1.60	-3.3	14
2023-09-02	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	55.6	1115	1384	12.73%	16.53%	70.75%	-1.60	+3.3	8
2023-09-02	Newry City	W 4-0	26.8	1376	1092	71.82%	16.32%	11.86%	+1.68	+11.5	12
2023-09-02	@ Larne	L 0-4	26.8	1092	1376	11.86%	16.32%	71.82%	-1.68	-11.5	6
2023-09-09	Ballymena United	L 0-1	39.5	1108	1153	34.45%	18.54%	47.01%	-0.27	-8.6	7
2023-09-09	@ Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	39.5	1153	1108	47.01%	18.54%	34.45%	+0.27	+8.6	3
2023-09-09	Glenavon	W 3-1	47.9	1090	1184	28.31%	18.34%	53.35%	-0.55	+20.4	5
2023-09-09	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 1-3	47.9	1184	1090	53.35%	18.34%	28.31%	+0.55	-20.4	4
2023-09-09	Glentoran	L 2-4	39.0	1081	1379	11.06%	16.10%	72.84%	-1.77	-4.4	6
2023-09-09	@ Newry City	W 4-2	39.0	1379	1081	72.84%	16.10%	11.06%	+1.77	+4.4	16
2023-09-15	Linfield	W 2-0	43.3	1388	1411	37.44%	18.59%	43.97%	-0.14	+19.9	15
2023-09-15	@ Larne	L 0-2	43.3	1411	1388	43.97%	18.59%	37.44%	+0.14	-19.9	16
2023-09-16	Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	43.8	1164	1100	49.58%	18.48%	31.94%	+0.38	+7.6	7
2023-09-16	@ Glenavon	L 1-2	43.8	1100	1164	31.94%	18.48%	49.58%	-0.38	-7.6	7
2023-09-16	Dungannon Swifts	D 0-0	51.6	1383	1111	70.98%	16.48%	12.54%	+1.62	-3.7	17
2023-09-16	@ Glentoran	D 0-0	51.6	1111	1383	12.54%	16.48%	70.98%	-1.62	+3.7	6
2023-09-16	Loughgall	L 1-3	46.0	1162	1118	46.80%	18.55%	34.65%	+0.26	-18.1	3
2023-09-16	@ Ballymena United	W 3-1	46.0	1118	1162	34.65%	18.55%	46.80%	-0.26	+18.1	11
2023-09-16	Newry City	W 3-1	37.2	1270	1076	64.35%	17.49%	18.16%	+1.15	+8.0	11
2023-09-16	@ Coleraine	L 1-3	37.2	1076	1270	18.16%	17.49%	64.35%	-1.15	-8.0	6
2023-09-18	Cliftonville	L 0-3	40.7	1381	1335	47.18%	18.54%	34.28%	+0.27	-30.6	14
2023-09-18	@ Crusaders	W 3-0	40.7	1335	1381	34.28%	18.54%	47.18%	-0.27	+30.6	13
2023-09-22	Carrick Rangers	W 4-1	32.2	1407	1092	73.99%	15.83%	10.18%	+1.87	+6.4	18
2023-09-22	@ Larne	L 1-4	32.2	1092	1407	10.18%	15.83%	73.99%	-1.87	-6.4	7
2023-09-22	Coleraine	L 1-2	51.8	1380	1278	54.31%	18.29%	27.40%	+0.60	-12.0	17
2023-09-22	@ Glentoran	W 2-1	51.8	1278	1380	27.40%	18.29%	54.31%	-0.60	+12.0	14
2023-09-22	Dungannon Swifts	D 2-2	60.0	1068	1115	34.26%	18.54%	47.20%	-0.27	+0.5	7
2023-09-22	@ Newry City	D 2-2	60.0	1115	1068	47.20%	18.54%	34.26%	+0.27	-0.5	7
2023-09-23	Cliftonville	L 0-2	31.3	1144	1365	15.95%	17.16%	66.89%	-1.32	-8.1	3
2023-09-23	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	31.3	1365	1144	66.89%	17.16%	15.95%	+1.32	+8.1	16
2023-09-23	Glenavon	W 2-0	32.5	1350	1171	62.91%	17.65%	19.45%	+1.06	+9.8	17
2023-09-23	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	32.5	1171	1350	19.45%	17.65%	62.91%	-1.06	-9.8	7
2023-09-23	Linfield	L 0-2	30.6	1136	1391	13.68%	16.74%	69.58%	-1.51	-7.0	11
2023-09-23	@ Loughgall	W 2-0	30.6	1391	1136	69.58%	16.74%	13.68%	+1.51	+7.0	19
2023-09-26	Coleraine	W 5-0	33.8	1374	1290	52.08%	18.39%	29.53%	+0.49	+33.3	19
2023-09-26	@ Cliftonville	L 0-5	33.8	1290	1374	29.53%	18.39%	52.08%	-0.49	-33.3	14
2023-09-26	Crusaders	W 2-0	39.9	1398	1360	45.99%	18.56%	35.45%	+0.22	+16.6	22
2023-09-26	@ Linfield	L 0-2	39.9	1360	1398	35.45%	18.56%	45.99%	-0.22	-16.6	17
2023-09-26	Larne	W 1-0	50.6	1129	1414	11.84%	16.31%	71.85%	-1.69	+16.5	14
2023-09-26	@ Loughgall	L 0-1	50.6	1414	1129	71.85%	16.31%	11.84%	+1.69	-16.5	18
2023-09-30	Ballymena United	L 0-1	40.5	1114	1135	37.67%	18.59%	43.74%	-0.13	-9.3	7
2023-09-30	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	40.5	1135	1114	43.74%	18.59%	37.67%	+0.13	+9.3	6
2023-09-30	Crusaders	L 0-4	33.1	1257	1344	29.13%	18.38%	52.50%	-0.51	-26.7	14
2023-09-30	@ Coleraine	W 4-0	33.1	1344	1257	52.50%	18.38%	29.13%	+0.51	+26.7	20
2023-09-30	Glentoran	W 2-1	55.3	1086	1368	11.97%	16.34%	71.68%	-1.67	+15.6	10
2023-09-30	@ Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	55.3	1368	1086	71.68%	16.34%	11.97%	+1.67	-15.6	17
2023-09-30	Larne	L 0-4	28.2	1162	1397	14.94%	16.99%	68.08%	-1.40	-14.5	7
2023-09-30	@ Glenavon	W 4-0	28.2	1397	1162	68.08%	16.99%	14.94%	+1.40	+14.5	21
2023-09-30	Loughgall	D 1-1	55.8	1407	1146	70.10%	16.65%	13.26%	+1.55	-3.2	20
2023-09-30	@ Cliftonville	D 1-1	55.8	1146	1407	13.26%	16.65%	70.10%	-1.55	+3.2	15
2023-09-30	Newry City	W 6-1	28.7	1414	1069	75.87%	15.35%	8.78%	+2.05	+8.7	25
2023-09-30	@ Linfield	L 1-6	28.7	1069	1414	8.78%	15.35%	75.87%	-2.05	-8.7	7
2023-10-06	Crusaders	D 1-1	57.8	1412	1370	46.53%	18.55%	34.91%	+0.25	-0.6	22
2023-10-06	@ Larne	D 1-1	57.8	1370	1412	34.91%	18.55%	46.53%	-0.25	+0.6	21
2023-10-06	Glentoran	W 2-0	38.9	1423	1352	50.48%	18.45%	31.07%	+0.42	+14.9	28
2023-10-06	@ Linfield	L 0-2	38.9	1352	1423	31.07%	18.45%	50.48%	-0.42	-14.9	17
2023-10-07	Carrick Rangers	L 3-4	56.6	1149	1101	47.44%	18.54%	34.03%	+0.29	-9.8	15
2023-10-07	@ Loughgall	W 4-3	56.6	1101	1149	34.03%	18.54%	47.44%	-0.29	+9.8	13
2023-10-07	Dungannon Swifts	W 5-0	26.6	1404	1105	72.87%	16.09%	11.04%	+1.77	+13.2	23
2023-10-07	@ Cliftonville	L 0-5	26.6	1105	1404	11.04%	16.09%	72.87%	-1.77	-13.2	7
2023-10-07	Glenavon	W 4-1	38.5	1230	1147	52.03%	18.40%	29.58%	+0.49	+17.5	17
2023-10-07	@ Coleraine	L 1-4	38.5	1147	1230	29.58%	18.40%	52.03%	-0.49	-17.5	7
2023-10-07	Newry City	L 0-2	42.1	1145	1060	52.23%	18.39%	29.38%	+0.50	-23.1	6
2023-10-07	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	42.1	1060	1145	29.38%	18.39%	52.23%	-0.50	+23.1	10
2023-10-13	Ballymena United	W 1-0	33.2	1371	1122	69.18%	16.81%	14.01%	+1.48	+3.8	24
2023-10-13	@ Crusaders	L 0-1	33.2	1122	1371	14.01%	16.81%	69.18%	-1.48	-3.8	6
2023-10-13	Cliftonville	L 0-1	32.6	1130	1417	11.68%	16.27%	72.06%	-1.70	-3.2	7
2023-10-13	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	32.6	1417	1130	72.06%	16.27%	11.68%	+1.70	+3.2	26
2023-10-13	Coleraine	L 0-2	32.6	1083	1248	20.79%	17.79%	61.42%	-0.98	-10.4	10
2023-10-13	@ Newry City	W 2-0	32.6	1248	1083	61.42%	17.79%	20.79%	+0.98	+10.4	20
2023-10-13	Larne	D 0-0	51.8	1092	1411	9.98%	15.77%	74.25%	-1.89	+4.1	8
2023-10-13	@ Dungannon Swifts	D 0-0	51.8	1411	1092	74.25%	15.77%	9.98%	+1.89	-4.1	23
2023-10-13	Linfield	L 1-2	36.8	1111	1438	9.62%	15.65%	74.73%	-1.94	-2.5	13
2023-10-13	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	36.8	1438	1111	74.73%	15.65%	9.62%	+1.94	+2.5	31
2023-10-13	Loughgall	W 6-0	29.3	1337	1139	64.70%	17.45%	17.85%	+1.17	+25.1	20
2023-10-13	@ Glentoran	L 0-6	29.3	1139	1337	17.85%	17.45%	64.70%	-1.17	-25.1	15
2023-10-20	Carrick Rangers	W 2-0	29.5	1407	1108	72.85%	16.10%	11.05%	+1.77	+5.7	26
2023-10-20	@ Larne	L 0-2	29.5	1108	1407	11.05%	16.10%	72.85%	-1.77	-5.7	13
2023-10-20	Linfield	L 0-1	45.7	1420	1440	37.81%	18.59%	43.60%	-0.12	-9.3	26
2023-10-20	@ Cliftonville	W 1-0	45.7	1440	1420	43.60%	18.59%	37.81%	+0.12	+9.3	34
2023-10-21	Coleraine	W 3-1	49.6	1118	1258	23.17%	18.01%	58.82%	-0.83	+22.3	9
2023-10-21	@ Ballymena United	L 1-3	49.6	1258	1118	58.82%	18.01%	23.17%	+0.83	-22.3	20
2023-10-21	Crusaders	L 1-4	32.9	1096	1375	12.15%	16.39%	71.46%	-1.65	-7.6	8
2023-10-21	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 4-1	32.9	1375	1096	71.46%	16.39%	12.15%	+1.65	+7.6	27
2023-10-21	Glenavon	W 3-1	36.3	1362	1126	68.08%	16.98%	14.93%	+1.40	+6.6	23
2023-10-21	@ Glentoran	L 1-3	36.3	1126	1362	14.93%	16.98%	68.08%	-1.40	-6.6	7
2023-10-21	Newry City	W 3-1	42.4	1114	1073	46.55%	18.55%	34.89%	+0.25	+14.2	18
2023-10-21	@ Loughgall	L 1-3	42.4	1073	1114	34.89%	18.55%	46.55%	-0.25	-14.2	10
2023-10-28	Cliftonville	L 1-2	41.1	1236	1411	19.81%	17.69%	62.50%	-1.04	-5.0	20
2023-10-28	@ Coleraine	W 2-1	41.1	1411	1236	62.50%	17.69%	19.81%	+1.04	+5.0	29
2023-10-28	Dungannon Swifts	D 1-1	54.6	1140	1088	47.97%	18.52%	33.51%	+0.31	-0.8	10
2023-10-28	@ Ballymena United	D 1-1	54.6	1088	1140	33.51%	18.52%	47.97%	-0.31	+0.8	9
2023-10-28	Glenavon	L 1-3	43.4	1103	1120	38.28%	18.60%	43.13%	-0.10	-15.3	13
2023-10-28	@ Carrick Rangers	W 3-1	43.4	1120	1103	43.13%	18.60%	38.28%	+0.10	+15.3	10
2023-10-28	Glentoran	D 1-1	57.2	1382	1369	42.62%	18.60%	38.78%	+0.08	-0.2	28
2023-10-28	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	57.2	1369	1382	38.78%	18.60%	42.62%	-0.08	+0.2	24
2023-10-28	Larne	L 1-2	36.0	1059	1413	8.42%	15.20%	76.38%	-2.10	-2.2	10
2023-10-28	@ Newry City	W 2-1	36.0	1413	1059	76.38%	15.20%	8.42%	+2.10	+2.1	29
2023-10-28	Loughgall	W 5-1	30.6	1450	1129	74.35%	15.75%	9.90%	+1.90	+8.0	37
2023-10-28	@ Linfield	L 1-5	30.6	1129	1450	9.90%	15.75%	74.35%	-1.90	-8.0	18
2023-11-03	Cliftonville	W 2-1	50.8	1415	1416	40.57%	18.61%	40.82%	-0.01	+9.3	32
2023-11-03	@ Larne	L 1-2	50.8	1416	1415	40.82%	18.61%	40.57%	+0.01	-9.3	29
2023-11-04	Ballymena United	W 5-2	45.7	1121	1139	38.01%	18.60%	43.39%	-0.11	+20.8	21
2023-11-04	@ Loughgall	L 2-5	45.7	1139	1121	43.39%	18.60%	38.01%	+0.11	-20.8	10
2023-11-04	Carrick Rangers	L 2-3	60.4	1369	1087	71.65%	16.35%	12.00%	+1.67	-14.8	24
2023-11-04	@ Glentoran	W 3-2	60.4	1087	1369	12.00%	16.35%	71.65%	-1.67	+14.8	16
2023-11-04	Coleraine	L 0-2	45.3	1382	1231	60.04%	17.91%	22.04%	+0.90	-26.3	28
2023-11-04	@ Crusaders	W 2-0	45.3	1231	1382	22.04%	17.91%	60.04%	-0.90	+26.3	23
2023-11-04	Dungannon Swifts	W 1-0	39.5	1135	1089	47.19%	18.54%	34.27%	+0.27	+8.6	13
2023-11-04	@ Glenavon	L 0-1	39.5	1089	1135	34.27%	18.54%	47.19%	-0.27	-8.6	9
2023-11-04	Linfield	L 0-3	25.7	1056	1458	6.66%	14.39%	78.95%	-2.38	-4.9	10
2023-11-04	@ Newry City	W 3-0	25.7	1458	1056	78.95%	14.39%	6.66%	+2.38	+4.9	40
2023-11-11	Carrick Rangers	L 2-3	50.6	1080	1102	37.59%	18.59%	43.82%	-0.13	-8.3	9
2023-11-11	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 3-2	50.6	1102	1080	43.82%	18.59%	37.59%	+0.13	+8.3	19
2023-11-11	Crusaders	L 1-2	39.2	1141	1356	16.51%	17.25%	66.24%	-1.27	-4.2	21
2023-11-11	@ Loughgall	W 2-1	39.2	1356	1141	66.24%	17.25%	16.51%	+1.27	+4.2	31
2023-11-11	Glenavon	L 0-1	40.4	1119	1144	37.14%	18.59%	44.27%	-0.15	-9.2	10
2023-11-11	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	40.4	1144	1119	44.27%	18.59%	37.14%	+0.15	+9.2	16
2023-11-11	Larne	L 1-2	54.0	1463	1424	46.11%	18.56%	35.33%	+0.23	-10.3	40
2023-11-11	@ Linfield	W 2-1	54.0	1424	1463	35.33%	18.56%	46.11%	-0.23	+10.3	35
2023-11-11	Newry City	W 1-0	31.0	1406	1051	76.42%	15.19%	8.39%	+2.10	+2.3	32
2023-11-11	@ Cliftonville	L 0-1	31.0	1051	1406	8.39%	15.19%	76.42%	-2.10	-2.3	10
2023-11-13	Glentoran	D 0-0	51.6	1257	1354	27.87%	18.32%	53.81%	-0.58	+1.6	24
2023-11-13	@ Coleraine	D 0-0	51.6	1354	1257	53.81%	18.32%	27.87%	+0.58	-1.6	25
2023-11-17	Coleraine	W 2-0	33.9	1435	1259	62.59%	17.68%	19.73%	+1.04	+9.9	38
2023-11-17	@ Larne	L 0-2	33.9	1259	1435	19.73%	17.68%	62.59%	-1.04	-9.9	24
2023-11-18	Ballymena United	W 5-0	27.7	1353	1109	68.70%	16.89%	14.41%	+1.44	+17.2	28
2023-11-18	@ Glentoran	L 0-5	27.7	1109	1353	14.41%	16.89%	68.70%	-1.44	-17.2	10
2023-11-18	Loughgall	W 2-0	38.1	1153	1137	42.95%	18.60%	38.45%	+0.09	+17.8	19
2023-11-18	@ Glenavon	L 0-2	38.1	1137	1153	38.45%	18.60%	42.95%	-0.09	-17.8	21
2023-11-18	Newry City	W 4-1	40.8	1072	1049	43.94%	18.59%	37.47%	+0.14	+21.3	12
2023-11-18	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 1-4	40.8	1049	1072	37.47%	18.59%	43.94%	-0.14	-21.3	10
2023-11-19	Cliftonville	L 0-3	27.5	1111	1409	11.08%	16.10%	72.82%	-1.77	-8.2	19
2023-11-19	@ Carrick Rangers	W 3-0	27.5	1409	1111	72.82%	16.10%	11.08%	+1.77	+8.2	35
2023-11-24	Glenavon	L 0-3	31.2	1028	1171	22.90%	17.99%	59.11%	-0.85	-16.5	10
2023-11-24	@ Newry City	W 3-0	31.2	1171	1028	59.11%	17.99%	22.90%	+0.85	+16.5	22
2023-11-24	Glentoran	W 2-1	47.3	1444	1370	50.92%	18.44%	30.64%	+0.44	+7.3	41
2023-11-24	@ Larne	L 1-2	47.3	1370	1444	30.64%	18.44%	50.92%	-0.44	-7.3	28
2023-11-25	Ballymena United	W 4-0	25.6	1452	1092	76.72%	15.11%	8.18%	+2.13	+7.9	43
2023-11-25	@ Linfield	L 0-4	25.6	1092	1452	8.18%	15.11%	76.72%	-2.13	-7.9	10
2023-11-25	Carrick Rangers	D 1-1	54.9	1249	1102	59.50%	17.96%	22.54%	+0.87	-2.0	25
2023-11-25	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	54.9	1102	1249	22.54%	17.96%	59.50%	-0.87	+2.0	20
2023-11-25	Crusaders	W 3-0	37.4	1417	1360	48.61%	18.51%	32.88%	+0.34	+22.7	38
2023-11-25	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	37.4	1360	1417	32.88%	18.51%	48.61%	-0.34	-22.7	31
2023-11-25	Dungannon Swifts	L 1-2	47.5	1119	1093	44.39%	18.59%	37.02%	+0.15	-10.0	21
2023-11-25	@ Loughgall	W 2-1	47.5	1093	1119	37.02%	18.59%	44.39%	-0.15	+10.0	15
2023-12-01	Linfield	W 4-0	43.8	1363	1460	27.85%	18.32%	53.83%	-0.58	+45.0	31
2023-12-01	@ Glentoran	L 0-4	43.8	1460	1363	53.83%	18.32%	27.85%	+0.58	-45.0	43
2023-12-02	Cliftonville	L 1-4	32.0	1103	1440	9.20%	15.50%	75.30%	-1.99	-5.8	15
2023-12-02	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 4-1	32.0	1440	1103	75.30%	15.50%	9.20%	+1.99	+5.8	41
2023-12-02	Coleraine	D 1-1	54.8	1187	1247	32.55%	18.50%	48.95%	-0.35	+0.9	23
2023-12-02	@ Glenavon	D 1-1	54.8	1247	1187	48.95%	18.50%	32.55%	+0.35	-0.9	26
2023-12-02	Larne	D 0-0	52.2	1084	1452	7.88%	14.98%	77.14%	-2.18	+4.5	11
2023-12-02	@ Ballymena United	D 0-0	52.2	1452	1084	77.14%	14.98%	7.88%	+2.18	-4.5	42
2023-12-02	Loughgall	D 2-2	60.0	1104	1109	39.97%	18.61%	41.42%	-0.03	+0.0	21
2023-12-02	@ Carrick Rangers	D 2-2	60.0	1109	1104	41.42%	18.61%	39.97%	+0.03	-0.1	22
2023-12-02	Newry City	D 1-1	55.6	1337	1011	74.67%	15.67%	9.67%	+1.93	-3.8	32
2023-12-02	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	55.6	1011	1337	9.67%	15.67%	74.67%	-1.93	+3.7	11
2023-12-08	Ballymena United	D 0-0	50.6	1015	1089	30.74%	18.44%	50.82%	-0.44	+1.2	12
2023-12-08	@ Newry City	D 0-0	50.6	1089	1015	50.82%	18.44%	30.74%	+0.44	-1.2	12
2023-12-08	Crusaders	L 0-1	33.6	1104	1334	15.40%	17.07%	67.53%	-1.36	-4.2	21
2023-12-08	@ Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	33.6	1334	1104	67.53%	17.07%	15.40%	+1.36	+4.2	35
2023-12-08	Glenavon	W 4-1	34.2	1447	1188	69.97%	16.67%	13.36%	+1.54	+8.4	45
2023-12-08	@ Larne	L 1-4	34.2	1188	1447	13.36%	16.67%	69.97%	-1.54	-8.4	23
2023-12-09	Dungannon Swifts	W 4-3	45.1	1415	1098	74.12%	15.80%	10.08%	+1.88	+2.4	46
2023-12-09	@ Linfield	L 3-4	45.1	1098	1415	10.08%	15.80%	74.12%	-1.88	-2.4	15
2023-12-09	Glentoran	D 2-2	65.0	1445	1408	46.01%	18.56%	35.43%	+0.22	-0.4	42
2023-12-09	@ Cliftonville	D 2-2	65.0	1408	1445	35.43%	18.56%	46.01%	-0.22	+0.4	32
2023-12-09	Loughgall	W 3-2	46.3	1246	1109	58.40%	18.04%	23.56%	+0.81	+5.5	29
2023-12-09	@ Coleraine	L 2-3	46.3	1109	1246	23.56%	18.04%	58.40%	-0.81	-5.5	22
2023-12-15	Carrick Rangers	L 0-2	38.2	1088	1100	38.90%	18.60%	42.50%	-0.07	-17.9	12
2023-12-15	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	38.2	1100	1088	42.50%	18.60%	38.90%	+0.07	+18.0	24
2023-12-15	Larne	L 0-3	35.5	1338	1456	25.54%	18.18%	56.28%	-0.70	-18.2	35
2023-12-15	@ Crusaders	W 3-0	35.5	1456	1338	56.28%	18.18%	25.54%	+0.70	+18.2	48
2023-12-16	Cliftonville	L 1-4	31.9	1104	1445	8.98%	15.42%	75.60%	-2.02	-5.6	22
2023-12-16	@ Loughgall	W 4-1	31.9	1445	1104	75.60%	15.42%	8.98%	+2.02	+5.6	45
2023-12-16	Dungannon Swifts	L 2-3	57.4	1251	1095	60.54%	17.87%	21.59%	+0.93	-12.5	29
2023-12-16	@ Coleraine	W 3-2	57.4	1095	1251	21.59%	17.87%	60.54%	-0.93	+12.5	18
2023-12-16	Linfield	L 0-2	31.3	1180	1418	14.79%	16.96%	68.25%	-1.41	-7.5	23
2023-12-16	@ Glenavon	W 2-0	31.3	1418	1180	68.25%	16.96%	14.79%	+1.41	+7.5	49
2023-12-16	Newry City	W 1-0	30.3	1408	1016	78.45%	14.56%	6.99%	+2.32	+1.9	35
2023-12-16	@ Glentoran	L 0-1	30.3	1016	1408	6.99%	14.56%	78.45%	-2.32	-1.9	12
2023-12-22	Carrick Rangers	L 0-1	37.2	1014	1118	27.13%	18.28%	54.59%	-0.61	-7.0	12
2023-12-22	@ Newry City	W 1-0	37.2	1118	1014	54.59%	18.28%	27.13%	+0.61	+7.0	27
2023-12-22	Coleraine	W 2-1	41.0	1425	1239	63.62%	17.57%	18.81%	+1.10	+4.8	52
2023-12-22	@ Linfield	L 1-2	41.0	1239	1425	18.81%	17.57%	63.62%	-1.10	-4.8	29
2023-12-22	Loughgall	W 1-0	31.1	1474	1098	77.59%	14.84%	7.57%	+2.23	+2.0	51
2023-12-22	@ Larne	L 0-1	31.1	1098	1474	7.57%	14.84%	77.59%	-2.23	-2.0	22
2023-12-23	Ballymena United	W 2-0	28.0	1451	1070	77.87%	14.75%	7.38%	+2.26	+3.7	48
2023-12-23	@ Cliftonville	L 0-2	28.0	1070	1451	7.38%	14.75%	77.87%	-2.26	-3.7	12
2023-12-23	Crusaders	L 1-3	38.9	1172	1320	22.43%	17.95%	59.62%	-0.87	-9.7	23
2023-12-23	@ Glenavon	W 3-1	38.9	1320	1172	59.62%	17.95%	22.43%	+0.87	+9.7	38
2023-12-23	Glentoran	L 1-2	37.2	1108	1410	10.86%	16.04%	73.10%	-1.79	-2.8	18
2023-12-23	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 2-1	37.2	1410	1108	73.10%	16.04%	10.86%	+1.79	+2.8	38
2023-12-26	Coleraine	W 3-1	50.3	1066	1234	20.45%	17.76%	61.79%	-1.00	+23.4	15
2023-12-26	@ Ballymena United	L 1-3	50.3	1234	1066	61.79%	17.76%	20.45%	+1.00	-23.4	29
2023-12-26	Crusaders	W 2-1	44.7	1454	1329	57.10%	18.13%	24.76%	+0.74	+6.1	51
2023-12-26	@ Cliftonville	L 1-2	44.7	1329	1454	24.76%	18.13%	57.10%	-0.74	-6.1	38
2023-12-26	Dungannon Swifts	W 2-1	46.8	1096	1105	39.43%	18.60%	41.97%	-0.05	+9.5	25
2023-12-26	@ Loughgall	L 1-2	46.8	1105	1096	41.97%	18.60%	39.43%	+0.05	-9.5	18
2023-12-26	Glenavon	L 0-4	29.8	1007	1162	21.69%	17.88%	60.43%	-0.92	-20.5	12
2023-12-26	@ Newry City	W 4-0	29.8	1162	1007	60.43%	17.88%	21.69%	+0.92	+20.5	26
2023-12-26	Glentoran	W 2-0	42.6	1430	1413	43.14%	18.60%	38.26%	+0.10	+17.7	55
2023-12-26	@ Linfield	L 0-2	42.6	1413	1430	38.26%	18.60%	43.14%	-0.10	-17.7	38
2023-12-26	Larne	L 1-2	36.7	1125	1476	8.56%	15.26%	76.18%	-2.08	-2.2	27
2023-12-26	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-1	36.7	1476	1125	76.18%	15.26%	8.56%	+2.08	+2.2	54
2023-12-30	Ballymena United	L 0-1	45.2	1183	1089	53.37%	18.34%	28.30%	+0.56	-12.5	26
2023-12-30	@ Glenavon	W 1-0	45.2	1089	1183	28.30%	18.34%	53.37%	-0.56	+12.5	18
2023-12-30	Carrick Rangers	W 2-0	31.7	1323	1123	64.93%	17.42%	17.65%	+1.19	+8.9	41
2023-12-30	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	31.7	1123	1323	17.65%	17.42%	64.93%	-1.19	-8.9	27
2023-12-30	Linfield	D 1-1	61.8	1478	1448	45.03%	18.58%	36.39%	+0.18	-0.5	55
2023-12-30	@ Larne	D 1-1	61.8	1448	1478	36.39%	18.58%	45.03%	-0.18	+0.4	56
2023-12-30	Loughgall	L 1-3	48.3	1211	1106	54.74%	18.27%	26.99%	+0.62	-20.8	29
2023-12-30	@ Coleraine	W 3-1	48.3	1106	1211	26.99%	18.27%	54.74%	-0.62	+20.9	28
2023-12-30	Newry City	W 5-0	31.4	1095	987	55.17%	18.25%	26.58%	+0.64	+30.4	21
2023-12-30	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-5	31.4	987	1095	26.58%	18.25%	55.17%	-0.64	-30.4	12
2024-01-02	Linfield	L 0-1	40.0	1332	1448	25.76%	18.20%	56.04%	-0.69	-6.7	41
2024-01-02	@ Crusaders	W 1-0	40.0	1448	1332	56.04%	18.20%	25.76%	+0.69	+6.7	59
2024-01-12	Larne	L 0-2	36.6	1325	1478	21.96%	17.91%	60.13%	-0.90	-10.9	41
2024-01-12	@ Crusaders	W 2-0	36.6	1478	1325	60.13%	17.91%	21.96%	+0.90	+11.0	58
2024-01-13	Cliftonville	L 1-2	33.8	957	1460	3.98%	12.52%	83.50%	-2.99	-1.0	12
2024-01-13	@ Newry City	W 2-1	33.8	1460	957	83.50%	12.52%	3.98%	+2.99	+1.0	54
2024-01-13	Coleraine	W 6-0	29.6	1395	1190	65.40%	17.36%	17.24%	+1.22	+24.3	41
2024-01-13	@ Glentoran	L 0-6	29.6	1190	1395	17.24%	17.36%	65.40%	-1.22	-24.3	29
2024-01-13	Dungannon Swifts	L 2-4	47.4	1102	1126	37.29%	18.59%	44.12%	-0.14	-13.4	18
2024-01-13	@ Ballymena United	W 4-2	47.4	1126	1102	44.12%	18.59%	37.29%	+0.14	+13.4	24
2024-01-13	Glenavon	L 0-2	36.4	1114	1171	32.93%	18.51%	48.57%	-0.34	-15.6	27
2024-01-13	@ Carrick Rangers	W 2-0	36.4	1171	1114	48.57%	18.51%	32.93%	+0.34	+15.6	29
2024-01-13	Linfield	L 1-2	37.0	1127	1455	9.57%	15.63%	74.80%	-1.95	-2.5	28
2024-01-13	@ Loughgall	W 2-1	37.0	1455	1127	74.80%	15.63%	9.57%	+1.95	+2.4	62
2024-01-20	Ballymena United	W 3-0	26.3	1461	1088	77.44%	14.88%	7.67%	+2.21	+5.7	57
2024-01-20	@ Cliftonville	L 0-3	26.3	1088	1461	7.67%	14.88%	77.44%	-2.21	-5.6	18
2024-01-20	Carrick Rangers	L 0-2	41.5	1165	1098	49.96%	18.47%	31.57%	+0.40	-22.2	29
2024-01-20	@ Coleraine	W 2-0	41.5	1098	1165	31.57%	18.47%	49.96%	-0.40	+22.2	30
2024-01-20	Crusaders	W 1-0	38.9	1457	1314	59.09%	17.99%	22.92%	+0.85	+6.0	65
2024-01-20	@ Linfield	L 0-1	38.9	1314	1457	22.92%	17.99%	59.09%	-0.85	-6.0	41
2024-01-20	Larne	L 0-2	29.2	1139	1489	8.62%	15.28%	76.10%	-2.07	-4.4	24
2024-01-20	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 2-0	29.2	1489	1139	76.10%	15.28%	8.62%	+2.07	+4.4	61
2024-01-26	Cliftonville	L 0-1	31.7	1121	1467	8.75%	15.33%	75.92%	-2.05	-2.4	30
2024-01-26	@ Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	31.7	1467	1121	75.92%	15.33%	8.75%	+2.05	+2.4	60
2024-01-26	Newry City	W 3-0	23.7	1493	956	84.75%	11.90%	3.35%	+3.19	+2.3	64
2024-01-26	@ Larne	L 0-3	23.7	956	1493	3.35%	11.90%	84.75%	-3.19	-2.3	12
2024-01-27	Dungannon Swifts	L 1-2	56.6	1463	1135	74.81%	15.63%	9.56%	+1.95	-16.2	65
2024-01-27	@ Linfield	W 2-1	56.6	1135	1463	9.56%	15.63%	74.81%	-1.95	+16.2	27
2024-01-27	Glenavon	W 1-0	43.3	1143	1186	34.72%	18.55%	46.73%	-0.25	+11.1	32
2024-01-27	@ Coleraine	L 0-1	43.3	1186	1143	46.73%	18.55%	34.72%	+0.25	-11.1	29
2024-01-27	Glentoran	L 1-2	44.2	1308	1419	26.32%	18.23%	55.45%	-0.66	-6.4	41
2024-01-27	@ Crusaders	W 2-1	44.2	1419	1308	55.45%	18.23%	26.32%	+0.66	+6.4	44
2024-01-27	Loughgall	L 0-1	39.7	1083	1124	34.92%	18.55%	46.53%	-0.25	-8.7	18
2024-01-27	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	39.7	1124	1083	46.53%	18.55%	34.92%	+0.25	+8.7	31
2024-02-06	Cliftonville	D 2-2	66.2	1426	1469	34.63%	18.55%	46.83%	-0.26	+0.5	45
2024-02-06	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	66.2	1469	1426	46.83%	18.55%	34.63%	+0.26	-0.5	61
2024-02-09	Ballymena United	D 1-1	54.7	953	1074	25.22%	18.16%	56.62%	-0.72	+1.7	13
2024-02-09	@ Newry City	D 1-1	54.7	1074	953	56.62%	18.16%	25.22%	+0.72	-1.7	19
2024-02-09	Loughgall	W 2-0	29.0	1495	1133	76.86%	15.06%	8.08%	+2.15	+4.1	67
2024-02-09	@ Larne	L 0-2	29.0	1133	1495	8.08%	15.06%	76.86%	-2.15	-4.1	31
2024-02-10	Carrick Rangers	D 2-2	61.4	1426	1118	73.49%	15.95%	10.56%	+1.83	-2.7	46
2024-02-10	@ Glentoran	D 2-2	61.4	1118	1426	10.56%	15.95%	73.49%	-1.83	+2.7	31
2024-02-10	Coleraine	W 4-1	32.9	1469	1154	73.92%	15.85%	10.23%	+1.86	+6.4	64
2024-02-10	@ Cliftonville	L 1-4	32.9	1154	1469	10.23%	15.85%	73.92%	-1.86	-6.4	32
2024-02-10	Crusaders	D 2-2	60.5	1151	1302	22.08%	17.92%	60.00%	-0.90	+1.6	28
2024-02-10	@ Dungannon Swifts	D 2-2	60.5	1302	1151	60.00%	17.92%	22.08%	+0.90	-1.5	42
2024-02-10	Linfield	D 2-2	61.7	1175	1447	12.57%	16.49%	70.94%	-1.61	+2.5	30
2024-02-10	@ Glenavon	D 2-2	61.7	1447	1175	70.94%	16.49%	12.57%	+1.61	-2.5	66
2024-02-13	Newry City	D 0-0	50.8	1129	955	62.37%	17.70%	19.93%	+1.03	-2.6	32
2024-02-13	@ Loughgall	D 0-0	50.8	955	1129	19.93%	17.70%	62.37%	-1.03	+2.6	14
2024-02-16	Linfield	W 3-0	46.4	1148	1445	11.16%	16.13%	72.71%	-1.76	+45.8	35
2024-02-16	@ Coleraine	L 0-3	46.4	1445	1148	72.71%	16.13%	11.16%	+1.76	-45.8	66
2024-02-17	Crusaders	L 0-1	35.1	1126	1300	19.87%	17.70%	62.43%	-1.03	-5.3	32
2024-02-17	@ Loughgall	W 1-0	35.1	1300	1126	62.43%	17.70%	19.87%	+1.03	+5.3	45
2024-02-17	Dungannon Swifts	W 2-1	47.8	1121	1153	36.24%	18.58%	45.18%	-0.19	+10.2	34
2024-02-17	@ Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	47.8	1153	1121	45.18%	18.58%	36.24%	+0.19	-10.2	28
2024-02-17	Glenavon	W 4-2	40.1	1475	1178	72.79%	16.11%	11.10%	+1.77	+4.4	67
2024-02-17	@ Cliftonville	L 2-4	40.1	1178	1475	11.10%	16.11%	72.79%	-1.77	-4.4	30
2024-02-17	Larne	L 0-1	30.3	1072	1499	5.85%	13.93%	80.22%	-2.53	-1.6	19
2024-02-17	@ Ballymena United	W 1-0	30.3	1499	1072	80.22%	13.93%	5.85%	+2.53	+1.6	70
2024-02-17	Newry City	W 8-2	26.8	1424	958	81.96%	13.22%	4.82%	+2.76	+4.5	49
2024-02-17	@ Glentoran	L 2-8	26.8	958	1424	4.82%	13.22%	81.96%	-2.76	-4.5	14
2024-02-20	Linfield	L 0-3	45.6	1480	1399	51.76%	18.41%	29.83%	+0.48	-33.2	67
2024-02-20	@ Cliftonville	W 3-0	45.6	1399	1480	29.83%	18.41%	51.76%	-0.48	+33.2	69
2024-02-23	Glentoran	W 3-0	41.0	1501	1428	50.74%	18.44%	30.82%	+0.43	+21.5	73
2024-02-23	@ Larne	L 0-3	41.0	1428	1501	30.82%	18.44%	50.74%	-0.43	-21.5	49
2024-02-24	Ballymena United	W 2-0	28.3	1432	1071	76.78%	15.08%	8.13%	+2.14	+4.1	72
2024-02-24	@ Linfield	L 0-2	28.3	1071	1432	8.13%	15.08%	76.78%	-2.14	-4.1	19
2024-02-24	Carrick Rangers	D 3-3	64.2	1121	1131	39.22%	18.60%	42.17%	-0.06	+0.1	33
2024-02-24	@ Loughgall	D 3-3	64.2	1131	1121	42.17%	18.60%	39.22%	+0.06	-0.1	35
2024-02-24	Cliftonville	W 3-1	54.0	1142	1446	10.76%	16.01%	73.22%	-1.80	+27.5	31
2024-02-24	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 1-3	54.0	1446	1142	73.22%	16.01%	10.76%	+1.80	-27.5	67
2024-02-24	Coleraine	L 0-2	30.4	953	1194	14.59%	16.92%	68.49%	-1.43	-7.5	14
2024-02-24	@ Newry City	W 2-0	30.4	1194	953	68.49%	16.92%	14.59%	+1.43	+7.5	38
2024-02-24	Glenavon	W 2-0	33.9	1306	1173	57.97%	18.07%	23.95%	+0.79	+11.8	48
2024-02-24	@ Crusaders	L 0-2	33.9	1173	1306	23.95%	18.07%	57.97%	-0.79	-11.8	30
2024-03-05	Glentoran	D 0-0	51.8	1161	1407	14.28%	16.86%	68.86%	-1.45	+3.5	31
2024-03-05	@ Glenavon	D 0-0	51.8	1407	1161	68.86%	16.86%	14.28%	+1.45	-3.5	50
2024-03-09	Crusaders	L 2-4	39.9	1067	1318	13.89%	16.78%	69.32%	-1.49	-5.5	19
2024-03-09	@ Ballymena United	W 4-2	39.9	1318	1067	69.32%	16.78%	13.89%	+1.49	+5.5	51
2024-03-09	Dungannon Swifts	W 4-0	36.1	1165	1170	39.96%	18.61%	41.43%	-0.03	+35.9	34
2024-03-09	@ Glenavon	L 0-4	36.1	1170	1165	41.43%	18.61%	39.96%	+0.03	-35.9	31
2024-03-09	Larne	D 0-0	53.6	1201	1522	9.90%	15.74%	74.36%	-1.90	+4.1	39
2024-03-09	@ Coleraine	D 0-0	53.6	1522	1201	74.36%	15.74%	9.90%	+1.90	-4.2	74
2024-03-09	Loughgall	L 0-3	45.8	1403	1121	71.70%	16.34%	11.96%	+1.67	-45.2	50
2024-03-09	@ Glentoran	W 3-0	45.8	1121	1403	11.96%	16.34%	71.70%	-1.67	+45.2	36
2024-03-09	Newry City	L 0-1	47.9	1131	946	63.52%	17.58%	18.89%	+1.10	-14.7	35
2024-03-09	@ Carrick Rangers	W 1-0	47.9	946	1131	18.89%	17.58%	63.52%	-1.10	+14.7	17
2024-03-16	Carrick Rangers	L 0-2	36.4	1061	1116	33.09%	18.51%	48.39%	-0.33	-15.7	19
2024-03-16	@ Ballymena United	W 2-0	36.4	1116	1061	48.39%	18.51%	33.09%	+0.33	+15.7	38
2024-03-16	Cliftonville	L 2-3	43.7	1166	1419	13.77%	16.76%	69.47%	-1.50	-3.3	36
2024-03-16	@ Loughgall	W 3-2	43.7	1419	1166	69.47%	16.76%	13.77%	+1.50	+3.3	70
2024-03-16	Coleraine	D 1-1	55.2	1323	1205	56.26%	18.18%	25.55%	+0.70	-1.7	52
2024-03-16	@ Crusaders	D 1-1	55.2	1205	1323	25.55%	18.18%	56.26%	-0.70	+1.7	40
2024-03-16	Glenavon	W 6-1	30.9	1518	1201	74.13%	15.80%	10.07%	+1.88	+10.0	77
2024-03-16	@ Larne	L 1-6	30.9	1201	1518	10.07%	15.80%	74.13%	-1.88	-10.0	34
2024-03-16	Glentoran	L 0-3	29.2	1134	1358	15.80%	17.14%	67.06%	-1.33	-11.7	31
2024-03-16	@ Dungannon Swifts	W 3-0	29.2	1358	1134	67.06%	17.14%	15.80%	+1.33	+11.7	53
2024-03-16	Newry City	W 6-0	23.8	1436	960	82.38%	13.04%	4.58%	+2.82	+6.3	75
2024-03-16	@ Linfield	L 0-6	23.8	960	1436	4.58%	13.04%	82.38%	-2.82	-6.3	17
2024-03-23	Ballymena United	W 4-0	25.8	1370	1045	74.55%	15.70%	9.75%	+1.92	+9.5	56
2024-03-23	@ Glentoran	L 0-4	25.8	1045	1370	9.75%	15.70%	74.55%	-1.92	-9.5	19
2024-03-23	Crusaders	L 0-1	30.5	954	1321	7.89%	14.98%	77.14%	-2.18	-2.1	17
2024-03-23	@ Newry City	W 1-0	30.5	1321	954	77.14%	14.98%	7.89%	+2.18	+2.1	55
2024-03-23	Dungannon Swifts	D 1-1	54.7	1207	1122	52.23%	18.39%	29.38%	+0.50	-1.2	41
2024-03-23	@ Coleraine	D 1-1	54.7	1122	1207	29.38%	18.39%	52.23%	-0.50	+1.2	32
2024-03-23	Loughgall	L 1-2	47.7	1191	1163	44.66%	18.58%	36.75%	+0.17	-10.1	34
2024-03-23	@ Glenavon	W 2-1	47.7	1163	1191	36.75%	18.58%	44.66%	-0.17	+10.1	39
2024-04-02	Larne	L 0-2	42.6	1422	1528	26.87%	18.26%	54.87%	-0.63	-13.1	70
2024-04-02	@ Cliftonville	W 2-0	42.6	1528	1422	54.87%	18.26%	26.87%	+0.63	+13.1	80
2024-04-02	Linfield	L 2-3	42.4	1132	1442	10.43%	15.91%	73.65%	-1.84	-2.5	38
2024-04-02	@ Carrick Rangers	W 3-2	42.4	1442	1132	73.65%	15.91%	10.43%	+1.84	+2.5	78

Second Phase Game Log

Every second-phase (championship / middle / relegation round) game from each team's perspective, filtered by the team selected at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game. The final column is running points within the second phase only.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
2024-04-06	Ballymena United	L 2-3	56.7	1173	1036	58.45%	18.04%	23.51%	+0.81	-12.1	0
2024-04-06	@ Loughgall	W 3-2	56.7	1036	1173	23.51%	18.04%	58.45%	-0.81	+12.1	3
2024-04-06	Carrick Rangers	W 3-2	51.8	1124	1129	39.86%	18.61%	41.54%	-0.03	+9.0	3
2024-04-06	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 2-3	51.8	1129	1124	41.54%	18.61%	39.86%	+0.03	-9.0	0
2024-04-06	Cliftonville	D 2-2	61.4	1206	1409	17.39%	17.38%	65.23%	-1.21	+2.0	1
2024-04-06	@ Coleraine	D 2-2	61.4	1409	1206	65.23%	17.38%	17.39%	+1.21	-2.0	1
2024-04-06	Crusaders	L 0-1	54.0	1541	1324	66.54%	17.21%	16.25%	+1.29	-15.4	0
2024-04-06	@ Larne	W 1-0	54.0	1324	1541	16.25%	17.21%	66.54%	-1.29	+15.4	3
2024-04-06	Linfield	D 0-0	54.7	1379	1445	31.73%	18.47%	49.80%	-0.39	+1.1	1
2024-04-06	@ Glentoran	D 0-0	54.7	1445	1379	49.80%	18.47%	31.73%	+0.39	-1.1	1
2024-04-06	Newry City	W 3-2	43.5	1181	952	67.48%	17.08%	15.44%	+1.36	+3.7	3
2024-04-06	@ Glenavon	L 2-3	43.5	952	1181	15.44%	17.08%	67.48%	-1.36	-3.7	0
2024-04-12	Linfield	L 1-2	45.4	1339	1444	26.99%	18.27%	54.74%	-0.62	-6.6	3
2024-04-12	@ Crusaders	W 2-1	45.4	1444	1339	54.74%	18.27%	26.99%	+0.62	+6.6	4
2024-04-13	Ballymena United	W 2-1	43.4	1120	1048	50.66%	18.45%	30.89%	+0.43	+7.4	3
2024-04-13	@ Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	43.4	1048	1120	30.89%	18.45%	50.66%	-0.43	-7.4	3
2024-04-13	Cliftonville	W 8-1	40.8	1526	1407	56.39%	18.18%	25.43%	+0.70	+33.0	3
2024-04-13	@ Larne	L 1-8	40.8	1407	1526	25.43%	18.18%	56.39%	-0.70	-33.0	1
2024-04-13	Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	31.9	948	1133	18.98%	17.59%	63.43%	-1.09	-9.6	0
2024-04-13	@ Newry City	W 2-0	31.9	1133	948	63.43%	17.59%	18.98%	+1.09	+9.6	6
2024-04-13	Glenavon	W 3-1	45.3	1161	1184	37.34%	18.59%	44.07%	-0.14	+17.2	3
2024-04-13	@ Loughgall	L 1-3	45.3	1184	1161	44.07%	18.59%	37.34%	+0.14	-17.2	3
2024-04-13	Glentoran	W 2-1	53.4	1208	1380	20.06%	17.72%	62.23%	-1.02	+13.6	4
2024-04-13	@ Coleraine	L 1-2	53.4	1380	1208	62.23%	17.72%	20.06%	+1.02	-13.6	1
2024-04-16	Carrick Rangers	L 1-3	37.2	939	1128	18.56%	17.54%	63.90%	-1.12	-8.1	0
2024-04-16	@ Newry City	W 3-1	37.2	1128	939	63.90%	17.54%	18.56%	+1.12	+8.1	6
2024-04-16	Cliftonville	W 2-1	50.1	1332	1374	34.87%	18.55%	46.58%	-0.25	+10.4	6
2024-04-16	@ Crusaders	L 1-2	50.1	1374	1332	46.58%	18.55%	34.87%	+0.25	-10.4	1
2024-04-16	Coleraine	D 2-2	62.0	1450	1221	67.51%	17.07%	15.42%	+1.36	-2.2	5
2024-04-16	@ Linfield	D 2-2	62.0	1221	1450	15.42%	17.07%	67.51%	-1.36	+2.2	5
2024-04-16	Glenavon	W 1-0	46.2	1041	1167	24.61%	18.12%	57.27%	-0.75	+13.3	6
2024-04-16	@ Ballymena United	L 0-1	46.2	1167	1041	57.27%	18.12%	24.61%	+0.75	-13.3	3
2024-04-16	Larne	L 1-2	46.6	1367	1559	18.29%	17.50%	64.21%	-1.14	-4.6	1
2024-04-16	@ Glentoran	W 2-1	46.6	1559	1367	64.21%	17.50%	18.29%	+1.14	+4.6	6
2024-04-16	Loughgall	W 2-0	40.3	1142	1178	35.69%	18.57%	45.74%	-0.21	+20.5	9
2024-04-16	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	40.3	1178	1142	45.74%	18.57%	35.69%	+0.21	-20.5	3
2024-04-20	Crusaders	L 0-2	34.7	1224	1343	25.39%	18.17%	56.43%	-0.71	-12.5	5
2024-04-20	@ Coleraine	W 2-0	34.7	1343	1224	56.43%	18.17%	25.39%	+0.71	+12.5	9
2024-04-20	Glenavon	W 2-0	38.4	1163	1154	41.97%	18.60%	39.43%	+0.05	+18.1	12
2024-04-20	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-2	38.4	1154	1163	39.43%	18.60%	41.97%	-0.05	-18.1	3
2024-04-20	Glentoran	W 2-0	40.9	1364	1362	40.95%	18.61%	40.44%	+0.01	+18.5	4
2024-04-20	@ Cliftonville	L 0-2	40.9	1362	1364	40.44%	18.61%	40.95%	-0.01	-18.5	1
2024-04-20	Loughgall	W 2-1	47.4	1136	1157	37.67%	18.59%	43.74%	-0.13	+9.9	9
2024-04-20	@ Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	47.4	1157	1136	43.74%	18.59%	37.67%	+0.13	-9.9	3
2024-04-20	Newry City	W 4-0	30.9	1054	930	56.94%	18.14%	24.92%	+0.73	+23.3	9
2024-04-20	@ Ballymena United	L 0-4	30.9	930	1054	24.92%	18.14%	56.94%	-0.73	-23.3	0
2024-04-22	Larne	D 1-1	65.1	1448	1564	25.80%	18.20%	56.00%	-0.68	+1.6	6
2024-04-22	@ Linfield	D 1-1	65.1	1564	1448	56.00%	18.20%	25.80%	+0.68	-1.6	7
2024-04-27	Ballymena United	W 3-0	32.6	1181	1077	54.57%	18.28%	27.15%	+0.61	+19.2	15
2024-04-27	@ Dungannon Swifts	L 0-3	32.6	1077	1181	27.15%	18.28%	54.57%	-0.61	-19.2	9
2024-04-27	Carrick Rangers	L 1-2	46.0	1136	1146	39.24%	18.60%	42.16%	-0.06	-9.0	3
2024-04-27	@ Glenavon	W 2-1	46.0	1146	1136	42.16%	18.60%	39.24%	+0.06	+9.0	12
2024-04-27	Cliftonville	D 1-1	59.0	1450	1382	50.03%	18.47%	31.50%	+0.40	-1.0	7
2024-04-27	@ Linfield	D 1-1	59.0	1382	1450	31.50%	18.47%	50.03%	-0.40	+1.0	5
2024-04-27	Coleraine	W 5-0	28.2	1562	1211	76.19%	15.26%	8.55%	+2.08	+10.2	10
2024-04-27	@ Larne	L 0-5	28.2	1211	1562	8.55%	15.26%	76.19%	-2.08	-10.2	5
2024-04-27	Crusaders	W 4-0	38.1	1343	1355	39.01%	18.60%	42.39%	-0.07	+36.5	4
2024-04-27	@ Glentoran	L 0-4	38.1	1355	1343	42.39%	18.60%	39.01%	+0.07	-36.5	9
2024-04-27	Loughgall	L 1-4	33.5	907	1147	14.62%	16.93%	68.45%	-1.42	-9.1	0
2024-04-27	@ Newry City	W 4-1	33.5	1147	907	68.45%	16.93%	14.62%	+1.42	+9.1	6

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	2024-01-27	9.56%	Dungannon Swifts	1135	2	@ Linfield	1463	1
2	2024-02-24	10.76%	@ Dungannon Swifts	1142	3	Cliftonville	1446	1
3	2024-02-16	11.16%	@ Coleraine	1148	3	Linfield	1445	0
4	2023-09-26	11.84%	@ Loughgall	1129	1	Larne	1414	0
5	2024-03-09	11.96%	Loughgall	1121	3	@ Glentoran	1403	0
6	2023-09-30	11.97%	@ Carrick Rangers	1086	2	Glentoran	1368	1
7	2023-11-04	12.00%	Carrick Rangers	1087	3	@ Glentoran	1369	2
8	2024-04-06	16.25%	Crusaders	1324	1	@ Larne	1541	0
9	2023-08-15	18.86%	@ Carrick Rangers	1123	2	Coleraine	1309	0
10	2024-03-09	18.89%	Newry City	946	1	@ Carrick Rangers	1131	0
11	2024-04-13	20.06%	@ Coleraine	1208	2	Glentoran	1380	1
12	2023-12-26	20.45%	@ Ballymena United	1066	3	Coleraine	1234	1
13	2023-12-16	21.59%	Dungannon Swifts	1095	3	@ Coleraine	1251	2
14	2023-11-04	22.04%	Coleraine	1231	2	@ Crusaders	1382	0
15	2023-10-21	23.17%	@ Ballymena United	1118	3	Coleraine	1258	1
16	2024-04-06	23.51%	Ballymena United	1036	3	@ Loughgall	1173	2
17	2024-04-16	24.61%	@ Ballymena United	1041	1	Glenavon	1167	0
18	2023-08-19	26.08%	Newry City	1083	3	@ Glenavon	1196	1
19	2023-12-30	26.99%	Loughgall	1106	3	@ Coleraine	1211	1
20	2023-09-22	27.40%	Coleraine	1278	2	@ Glentoran	1380	1
21	2023-12-01	27.85%	@ Glentoran	1363	4	Linfield	1460	0
22	2023-12-30	28.30%	Ballymena United	1089	1	@ Glenavon	1183	0
23	2023-09-09	28.31%	@ Dungannon Swifts	1090	3	Glenavon	1184	1
24	2023-10-07	29.38%	Newry City	1060	2	@ Ballymena United	1145	0
25	2024-02-20	29.83%	Linfield	1399	3	@ Cliftonville	1480	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-02-16	45.80	@ Coleraine	3	1148	11.16%	Linfield	0	1445	72.71%	16.13%
2	2024-03-09	45.21	Loughgall	3	1121	11.96%	@ Glentoran	0	1403	71.70%	16.34%
3	2023-12-01	45.01	@ Glentoran	4	1363	27.85%	Linfield	0	1460	53.83%	18.32%
4	2024-04-27	36.55	@ Glentoran	4	1343	39.01%	Crusaders	0	1355	42.39%	18.60%
5	2023-08-22	36.04	@ Crusaders	9	1336	65.23%	Carrick Rangers	0	1133	17.39%	17.38%
6	2024-03-09	35.86	@ Glenavon	4	1165	39.96%	Dungannon Swifts	0	1170	41.43%	18.61%
7	2023-09-26	33.29	@ Cliftonville	5	1374	52.08%	Coleraine	0	1290	29.53%	18.39%
8	2024-02-20	33.25	Linfield	3	1399	29.83%	@ Cliftonville	0	1480	51.76%	18.41%
9	2024-04-13	33.05	@ Larne	8	1526	56.39%	Cliftonville	1	1407	25.43%	18.18%
10	2023-09-18	30.63	Cliftonville	3	1335	34.28%	@ Crusaders	0	1381	47.18%	18.54%
11	2023-12-30	30.38	@ Dungannon Swifts	5	1095	55.17%	Newry City	0	987	26.58%	18.25%
12	2023-08-05	28.26	Loughgall	3	1085	38.50%	@ Newry City	0	1101	42.90%	18.60%
13	2023-08-15	27.74	@ Carrick Rangers	2	1123	18.86%	Coleraine	0	1309	63.57%	17.58%
14	2024-02-24	27.49	@ Dungannon Swifts	3	1142	10.76%	Cliftonville	1	1446	73.22%	16.01%
15	2023-09-30	26.69	Crusaders	4	1344	52.50%	@ Coleraine	0	1257	29.13%	18.38%
16	2023-11-04	26.26	Coleraine	2	1231	22.04%	@ Crusaders	0	1382	60.04%	17.91%
17	2023-10-13	25.10	@ Glentoran	6	1337	64.70%	Loughgall	0	1139	17.85%	17.45%
18	2024-01-13	24.29	@ Glentoran	6	1395	65.40%	Coleraine	0	1190	17.24%	17.36%
19	2023-12-26	23.38	@ Ballymena United	3	1066	20.45%	Coleraine	1	1234	61.79%	17.76%
20	2024-04-20	23.28	@ Ballymena United	4	1054	56.94%	Newry City	0	930	24.92%	18.14%
21	2023-10-07	23.08	Newry City	2	1060	29.38%	@ Ballymena United	0	1145	52.23%	18.39%
22	2023-11-25	22.67	@ Cliftonville	3	1417	48.61%	Crusaders	0	1360	32.88%	18.51%
23	2023-08-12	22.50	Newry City	2	1072	30.78%	@ Carrick Rangers	0	1146	50.78%	18.44%
24	2023-10-21	22.31	@ Ballymena United	3	1118	23.17%	Coleraine	1	1258	58.82%	18.01%
25	2024-01-20	22.18	Carrick Rangers	2	1098	31.57%	@ Coleraine	0	1165	49.96%	18.47%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2023-08-07	67.1	@ Larne	4	1355	68.26%	Dungannon Swifts	4	1117	14.78%	16.96%
2	2024-02-06	66.2	@ Glentoran	2	1426	34.63%	Cliftonville	2	1469	46.83%	18.55%
3	2023-08-26	65.4	@ Linfield	3	1402	73.32%	Carrick Rangers	3	1097	10.69%	15.99%
4	2024-04-22	65.1	@ Linfield	1	1448	25.80%	Larne	1	1564	56.00%	18.20%
5	2023-12-09	65.0	@ Cliftonville	2	1445	46.01%	Glentoran	2	1408	35.43%	18.56%
6	2024-02-24	64.2	@ Loughgall	3	1121	39.22%	Carrick Rangers	3	1131	42.17%	18.60%
7	2023-08-29	62.7	@ Glentoran	2	1370	38.57%	Crusaders	2	1385	42.83%	18.60%
8	2024-04-16	62.0	@ Linfield	2	1450	67.51%	Coleraine	2	1221	15.42%	17.07%
9	2023-12-30	61.8	@ Larne	1	1478	45.03%	Linfield	1	1448	36.39%	18.58%
10	2024-02-10	61.7	@ Glenavon	2	1175	12.57%	Linfield	2	1447	70.94%	16.49%
11	2024-02-10	61.4	@ Glentoran	2	1426	73.49%	Carrick Rangers	2	1118	10.56%	15.95%
12	2024-04-06	61.4	@ Coleraine	2	1206	17.39%	Cliftonville	2	1409	65.23%	17.38%
13	2023-08-25	60.5	@ Dungannon Swifts	2	1098	18.94%	Coleraine	2	1283	63.47%	17.59%
14	2024-02-10	60.5	@ Dungannon Swifts	2	1151	22.08%	Crusaders	2	1302	60.00%	17.92%
15	2023-11-04	60.4	Carrick Rangers	3	1087	12.00%	@ Glentoran	2	1369	71.65%	16.35%
16	2023-08-25	60.1	@ Loughgall	2	1114	32.36%	Glenavon	2	1175	49.14%	18.49%
17	2023-09-22	60.0	@ Newry City	2	1068	34.26%	Dungannon Swifts	2	1115	47.20%	18.54%
18	2023-12-02	60.0	@ Carrick Rangers	2	1104	39.97%	Loughgall	2	1109	41.42%	18.61%
19	2024-04-27	59.0	@ Linfield	1	1450	50.03%	Cliftonville	1	1382	31.50%	18.47%
20	2023-10-06	57.8	@ Larne	1	1412	46.53%	Crusaders	1	1370	34.91%	18.55%
21	2023-12-16	57.4	Dungannon Swifts	3	1095	21.59%	@ Coleraine	2	1251	60.54%	17.87%
22	2023-10-28	57.2	@ Crusaders	1	1382	42.62%	Glentoran	1	1369	38.78%	18.60%
23	2023-08-26	56.7	@ Cliftonville	1	1344	36.05%	Larne	1	1377	45.37%	18.57%
24	2024-04-06	56.7	Ballymena United	3	1036	23.51%	@ Loughgall	2	1173	58.45%	18.04%
25	2023-10-07	56.6	Carrick Rangers	4	1101	34.03%	@ Loughgall	3	1149	47.44%	18.54%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	2024-01-26	23.7	@ Larne	3	1493	84.75%	Newry City	0	956	3.35%	11.90%
2	2024-03-16	23.8	@ Linfield	6	1436	82.38%	Newry City	0	960	4.58%	13.04%
3	2023-11-25	25.6	@ Linfield	4	1452	76.72%	Ballymena United	0	1092	8.18%	15.11%
4	2023-11-04	25.7	Linfield	3	1458	78.95%	@ Newry City	0	1056	6.66%	14.39%
5	2024-03-23	25.8	@ Glentoran	4	1370	74.55%	Ballymena United	0	1045	9.75%	15.70%
6	2024-01-20	26.3	@ Cliftonville	3	1461	77.44%	Ballymena United	0	1088	7.67%	14.88%
7	2023-10-07	26.6	@ Cliftonville	5	1404	72.87%	Dungannon Swifts	0	1105	11.04%	16.09%
8	2023-09-02	26.8	@ Larne	4	1376	71.82%	Newry City	0	1092	11.86%	16.32%
9	2024-02-17	26.8	@ Glentoran	8	1424	81.96%	Newry City	2	958	4.82%	13.22%
10	2023-08-26	27.1	Crusaders	4	1372	70.60%	@ Newry City	0	1105	12.84%	16.56%
11	2023-11-19	27.5	Cliftonville	3	1409	72.82%	@ Carrick Rangers	0	1111	11.08%	16.10%
12	2023-11-18	27.7	@ Glentoran	5	1353	68.70%	Ballymena United	0	1109	14.41%	16.89%
13	2023-12-23	28.0	@ Cliftonville	2	1451	77.87%	Ballymena United	0	1070	7.38%	14.75%
14	2023-09-30	28.2	Larne	4	1397	68.08%	@ Glenavon	0	1162	14.94%	16.99%
15	2024-04-27	28.2	@ Larne	5	1562	76.19%	Coleraine	0	1211	8.55%	15.26%
16	2024-02-24	28.3	@ Linfield	2	1432	76.78%	Ballymena United	0	1071	8.13%	15.08%
17	2023-09-30	28.7	@ Linfield	6	1414	75.87%	Newry City	1	1069	8.78%	15.35%
18	2023-08-15	28.9	Cliftonville	3	1322	67.33%	@ Newry City	0	1095	15.57%	17.10%
19	2024-02-09	29.0	@ Larne	2	1495	76.86%	Loughgall	0	1133	8.08%	15.06%
20	2024-01-20	29.2	Larne	2	1489	76.10%	@ Dungannon Swifts	0	1139	8.62%	15.28%
21	2024-03-16	29.2	Glentoran	3	1358	67.06%	@ Dungannon Swifts	0	1134	15.80%	17.14%
22	2023-10-13	29.3	@ Glentoran	6	1337	64.70%	Loughgall	0	1139	17.85%	17.45%
23	2023-08-19	29.4	@ Cliftonville	4	1333	63.23%	Carrick Rangers	0	1151	19.16%	17.61%
24	2023-10-20	29.5	@ Larne	2	1407	72.85%	Carrick Rangers	0	1108	11.05%	16.10%
25	2024-01-13	29.6	@ Glentoran	6	1395	65.40%	Coleraine	0	1190	17.24%	17.36%