1953-54 Main League Season

112 games · 2 promotion-playoff teams · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Skeid

22 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sarpsborg 08

7.75 points above expected

21 points · 13.25 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Nordnes

9.50 points below expected

3 points · 12.50 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Skeid	14	10	2	2	22	33	14	+19	15.7	+6.35
2	Fredrikstad	14	10	1	3	21	47	20	+27	15.3	+5.69
3	Sarpsborg 08	14	9	3	2	21	29	17	+12	13.2	+7.75
4	Strommen	14	8	4	2	20	32	17	+15	15.2	+4.84
5	Lillestrom	14	8	3	3	19	45	22	+23	16.3	+2.68
6	Asker	14	8	2	4	18	35	21	+14	14.0	+4.04
7	Larvik Turn	14	7	2	5	16	35	24	+11	16.5	-0.54
8	IF Odd	14	5	4	5	14	26	25	+1	14.1	-0.11
9	Viking	14	4	5	5	13	19	20	-1	13.9	-0.86
10	Sarpsborg	14	5	2	7	12	24	29	-5	13.5	-1.52
11	Sandefjord	14	3	5	6	11	20	22	-2	13.1	-2.08
12	Freidig	14	4	3	7	11	20	26	-6	10.9	+0.13
13	Varegg	14	2	4	8	8	16	38	-22	13.2	-5.16
14	Geithus	14	3	2	9	8	18	45	-27	13.1	-5.14
15	Moss	14	2	3	9	7	23	51	-28	13.6	-6.57
16	Nordnes	14	1	1	12	3	8	39	-31	12.5	-9.50

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The full Promotion / Relegation tab has matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Finals

Fredrikstad 2

Skeid 1

Sim: 282.0%

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Larvik Turn	1607	16	16.54	-0.54	48.3%	6	11	14	17	19	22	27
Lillestrom	1605	19	16.32	+2.68	84.2%	4	11	14	16	19	21	27
Skeid	1603	22	15.65	+6.35	98.7%	4	10	13	16	18	21	27
Fredrikstad	1600	21	15.31	+5.69	97.7%	4	10	13	15	17	20	26
Strommen	1567	20	15.16	+4.84	95.6%	4	10	13	15	17	20	25
Asker	1565	18	13.96	+4.04	92.4%	3	9	12	14	16	19	26
Sarpsborg 08	1547	21	13.25	+7.75	99.7%	2	8	11	13	15	19	25
IF Odd	1535	14	14.11	-0.11	54.8%	3	9	12	14	16	19	27
Viking	1531	13	13.86	-0.86	45.5%	2	9	12	14	16	19	25
Sarpsborg	1519	12	13.52	-1.52	37.8%	2	8	11	14	16	19	24
Sandefjord	1514	11	13.08	-2.08	30.9%	2	8	11	13	15	18	24
Varegg	1500	8	13.16	-5.16	6.5%	2	8	11	13	15	18	25
Geithus	1495	8	13.14	-5.14	7.0%	2	8	11	13	15	18	25
Moss	1492	7	13.57	-6.57	2.8%	2	8	11	14	16	19	24
Nordnes	1480	3	12.50	-9.50	0.1%	0	7	10	12	15	18	23
Freidig	1446	11	10.87	+0.13	58.8%	1	6	9	11	13	16	22

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ASK	FRE	FRE	GEI	IO	LT	LIL	MOS	NOR	SAN	SAR	S0	SKE	STR	VAR	VIK
Asker	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 2.29	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 2.95	1-0-1 2.92	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.92	1-0-1 2.46	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 2.98	1-1-0 2.77
Fredrikstad	0-0-0 0.00	—	1-0-1 3.67	2-0-0 3.21	1-0-1 3.04	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 2.58	2-0-0 3.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 3.14	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.86	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00
Freidig	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 1.91	—	1-1-0 2.26	0-1-1 2.19	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 1.80	1-1-0 2.34	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.32	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 1.99	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00
Geithus	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.35	0-1-1 3.28	—	1-0-1 2.60	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.22	1-0-1 2.69	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.71	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 2.27	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00
IF Odd	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.50	1-1-0 3.37	1-0-1 2.93	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 2.40	2-0-0 2.92	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-2-0 2.86	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.58	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00
Larvik Turn	0-0-2 3.26	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 3.53	1-1-0 3.41	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 3.39	0-0-2 2.96	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 3.41	1-0-1 3.28
Lillestrom	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 2.96	2-0-0 3.80	2-0-0 3.33	1-1-0 3.14	0-0-0 0.00	—	2-0-0 3.28	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 3.39	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 3.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00
Moss	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.55	0-1-1 3.22	1-0-1 2.85	0-0-2 2.63	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.27	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.72	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-2-0 2.47	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00
Nordnes	0-0-2 2.60	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.03	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	—	1-1-0 2.59	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.73	0-0-2 2.09	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.66	0-0-2 2.51
Sandefjord	1-0-1 2.62	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 2.15	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 2.95	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.62	0-1-1 2.34	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 2.74	1-1-0 2.67
Sarpsborg	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.41	1-0-1 3.23	1-0-1 2.83	0-2-0 2.68	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.17	1-0-1 2.81	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.53	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00
Sarpsborg 08	2-0-0 2.62	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-1-1 2.17	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 2.80	2-0-0 2.92	0-0-0 0.00	—	1-0-1 2.34	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 2.76	0-2-0 2.66
Skeid	1-0-1 3.08	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 2.57	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 3.47	1-1-0 3.20	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 3.21	—	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 3.15	2-0-0 3.17
Strommen	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.67	2-0-0 3.58	1-1-0 3.28	2-0-0 2.97	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 2.54	0-2-0 3.07	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 3.02	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00
Varegg	0-1-1 2.57	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.15	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 2.88	0-1-1 2.79	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-2 2.77	0-1-1 2.40	0-0-0 0.00	—	0-1-1 2.63
Viking	0-1-1 2.77	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	1-0-1 2.27	0-0-0 0.00	0-0-0 0.00	2-0-0 3.03	0-1-1 2.87	0-0-0 0.00	0-2-0 2.88	0-0-2 2.38	0-0-0 0.00	1-1-0 2.92	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.46%	2.68%	6.25%	1.79%	1.34%	2.23%	18.75%
1	2.68%	9.82%	7.14%	4.02%	2.23%	2.23%	28.12%
2	6.25%	7.14%	2.68%	4.46%	3.12%	1.34%	25.00%
3	1.79%	4.02%	4.46%	3.57%	0.45%	0.45%	14.73%
4	1.34%	2.23%	3.12%	0.45%	—	—	7.14%
5+	2.23%	2.23%	1.34%	0.45%	—	—	6.25%
Total	18.75%	28.12%	25.00%	14.73%	7.14%	6.25%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.92
Mean allowed	1.92
StdDev scored	1.74
StdDev allowed	1.74
Mean total goals/game	3.84
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.186
Sample size (games)	112

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
2	7.14%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
3	7.14%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	21.43%
4	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
5+	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	28.57%	28.57%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Asker — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.50
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.45
StdDev allowed	1.09
Mean total goals/game	4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.121
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
1	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
2	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
3	7.14%	—	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
4	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	28.57%
5+	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	21.43%	28.57%	35.71%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Fredrikstad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.36
Mean allowed	1.43
StdDev scored	1.98
StdDev allowed	1.02
Mean total goals/game	4.79
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.158
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
1	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	35.71%
2	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
3	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
4	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	14.29%	42.86%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Freidig — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.43
Mean allowed	1.86
StdDev scored	1.40
StdDev allowed	1.46
Mean total goals/game	3.29
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.221
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	28.57%
1	7.14%	—	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
2	—	7.14%	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
Total	14.29%	7.14%	21.43%	28.57%	7.14%	21.43%	100%

Geithus — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.29
Mean allowed	3.21
StdDev scored	1.33
StdDev allowed	2.67
Mean total goals/game	4.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.215
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
1	—	21.43%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	35.71%
2	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
3	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
4	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	—	50.00%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	100%

IF Odd — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.86
Mean allowed	1.79
StdDev scored	1.46
StdDev allowed	0.97
Mean total goals/game	3.64
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.077
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
1	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
2	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
3	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
4	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
5+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	21.43%	35.71%	7.14%	14.29%	—	100%

Larvik Turn — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.50
Mean allowed	1.71
StdDev scored	3.06
StdDev allowed	1.33
Mean total goals/game	4.21
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.361
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
1	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
2	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
3	—	14.29%	—	14.29%	—	—	28.57%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	21.43%
Total	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	21.43%	—	7.14%	100%

Lillestrom — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.21
Mean allowed	1.57
StdDev scored	2.69
StdDev allowed	1.50
Mean total goals/game	4.79
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.355
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
1	—	—	—	—	—	14.29%	14.29%
2	—	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	50.00%
3	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%
4	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	7.14%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	35.71%	100%

Moss — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.64
Mean allowed	3.64
StdDev scored	1.15
StdDev allowed	2.37
Mean total goals/game	5.29
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.219
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	21.43%	—	7.14%	64.29%
1	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
2	7.14%	—	—	14.29%	—	—	21.43%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	14.29%	7.14%	28.57%	42.86%	—	7.14%	100%

Nordnes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.57
Mean allowed	2.79
StdDev scored	0.85
StdDev allowed	2.86
Mean total goals/game	3.36
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.167
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	—	28.57%
1	—	21.43%	14.29%	—	7.14%	—	42.86%
2	—	—	—	—	7.14%	—	7.14%
3	—	—	14.29%	—	—	—	14.29%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	21.43%	28.57%	35.71%	—	14.29%	—	100%

Sandefjord — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.43
Mean allowed	1.57
StdDev scored	1.65
StdDev allowed	1.28
Mean total goals/game	3.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.016
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	14.29%
1	7.14%	14.29%	7.14%	7.14%	7.14%	—	42.86%
2	—	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	14.29%
3	—	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	21.43%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	7.14%	35.71%	21.43%	14.29%	21.43%	—	100%

Sarpsborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.71
Mean allowed	2.07
StdDev scored	1.38
StdDev allowed	1.33
Mean total goals/game	3.79
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.197
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
1	7.14%	14.29%	—	—	—	7.14%	28.57%
2	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	28.57%
3	—	14.29%	—	—	7.14%	—	21.43%
4	—	14.29%	—	—	—	—	14.29%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	28.57%	57.14%	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	100%

Sarpsborg 08 — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.07
Mean allowed	1.21
StdDev scored	1.21
StdDev allowed	1.48
Mean total goals/game	3.29
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.077
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.14%	—	—	—	—	—	7.14%
1	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
2	21.43%	14.29%	—	—	—	—	35.71%
3	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
4	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
Total	42.86%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	—	—	100%

Skeid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.36
Mean allowed	1.00
StdDev scored	1.28
StdDev allowed	1.11
Mean total goals/game	3.36
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.054
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
1	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
2	7.14%	7.14%	21.43%	—	—	—	35.71%
3	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
4	—	7.14%	—	—	—	—	7.14%
5+	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	—	14.29%
Total	28.57%	35.71%	28.57%	—	7.14%	—	100%

Strommen — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.29
Mean allowed	1.21
StdDev scored	1.68
StdDev allowed	1.12
Mean total goals/game	3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.116
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	21.43%	—	7.14%	7.14%	35.71%
1	—	21.43%	—	—	7.14%	—	28.57%
2	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	7.14%	21.43%
3	—	—	7.14%	7.14%	—	—	14.29%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	28.57%	28.57%	14.29%	14.29%	14.29%	100%

Varegg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.14
Mean allowed	2.71
StdDev scored	1.10
StdDev allowed	1.73
Mean total goals/game	3.86
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.058
Games played	14

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	7.14%	—	—	—	7.14%
1	7.14%	28.57%	14.29%	7.14%	—	—	57.14%
2	14.29%	7.14%	—	7.14%	—	—	28.57%
3	—	—	—	7.14%	—	—	7.14%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	21.43%	35.71%	21.43%	21.43%	—	—	100%

Viking — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.36
Mean allowed	1.43
StdDev scored	0.74
StdDev allowed	1.09
Mean total goals/game	2.79
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.081
Games played	14

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sarpsborg 08	21	13.2	+7.75
2	Skeid	22	15.7	+6.35
3	Fredrikstad	21	15.3	+5.69
4	Strommen	20	15.2	+4.84
5	Asker	18	14.0	+4.04

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Nordnes	3	12.5	-9.50
2	Moss	7	13.6	-6.57
3	Varegg	8	13.2	-5.16
4	Geithus	8	13.1	-5.14
5	Sandefjord	11	13.1	-2.08

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Strommen	5	Jul 26 – Sep 27	1 in 163
2	Sarpsborg 08	3	May 9 – May 27	1 in 43
3	Fredrikstad	5	May 17 – Jun 13	1 in 40
4	Larvik Turn	4	May 2 – May 23	1 in 25
5	Asker	3	May 27 – Jun 20	1 in 22

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Moss	5	May 2 – May 27	1 in 120
2	Nordnes	5	Jul 26 – Sep 6	1 in 78
3	Varegg	5	Sep 20 – May 9	1 in 53
4	Geithus	5	Sep 6 – May 2	1 in 50
5	Sarpsborg	4	Aug 2 – Sep 6	1 in 37

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sarpsborg 08	10	Aug 16 – May 27	1 in 210
2	Strommen	9	Jul 26 – May 9	1 in 58
3	Fredrikstad	6	May 9 – Jun 13	1 in 13
4	Lillestrom	7	Oct 4 – Jun 7	1 in 11
5	Skeid	6	Apr 25 – Jun 20	1 in 9

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Moss	11	Aug 2 – May 27	1 in 218
2	Viking	8	Oct 25 – Jun 13	1 in 74
3	Varegg	8	Sep 6 – May 23	1 in 32
4	Nordnes	8	Sep 27 – Jun 20	1 in 23
5	Sandefjord	6	May 9 – Jun 20	1 in 13

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8
Skeid	25.11%	20.45%	15.11%	12.47%	10.02%	7.96%	5.68%	3.20%
Fredrikstad	21.11%	19.23%	16.37%	13.27%	11.38%	8.65%	6.35%	3.64%
Sarpsborg 08	7.40%	10.66%	12.05%	13.67%	14.31%	13.98%	14.18%	13.75%
Strommen	17.32%	17.91%	16.79%	14.31%	12.28%	9.93%	7.35%	4.11%
Lillestrom	31.34%	21.13%	15.04%	11.48%	8.60%	6.11%	4.07%	2.23%
Asker	10.89%	13.25%	14.55%	14.59%	13.62%	12.32%	11.32%	9.46%
Larvik Turn	33.32%	21.24%	14.51%	10.37%	7.76%	6.35%	3.93%	2.52%
IF Odd	9.81%	12.52%	14.58%	15.03%	13.94%	13.82%	11.74%	8.56%
Viking	8.61%	11.52%	13.83%	13.22%	14.67%	13.89%	13.26%	11.00%
Sarpsborg	7.03%	9.85%	11.72%	13.89%	14.81%	15.32%	15.64%	11.74%
Sandefjord	5.49%	9.18%	10.79%	12.51%	14.02%	15.38%	16.49%	16.14%
Freidig	1.35%	2.74%	4.72%	6.89%	10.18%	14.55%	21.25%	38.32%
Varegg	5.09%	7.78%	10.72%	12.61%	13.74%	15.40%	16.71%	17.95%
Geithus	5.52%	7.47%	9.55%	11.84%	14.33%	15.95%	17.90%	17.44%
Moss	6.52%	9.15%	11.23%	13.29%	14.48%	15.67%	15.70%	13.96%
Nordnes	4.09%	5.92%	8.44%	10.56%	11.86%	14.72%	18.43%	25.98%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Promotion Playoff Bracket

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. Two-leg ties show their aggregate score with each leg listed below the matchup card.

Finals

Fredrikstad 2

Skeid 1

Sim: 282.0%

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Lillestrom	62.4%	6.3%
Larvik Turn	60.2%	6.5%
Skeid	66.0%	8.9%
Fredrikstad	68.9%	10.0%
Strommen	71.2%	11.5%
IF Odd	69.9%	20.3%
Asker	68.3%	20.8%
Viking	67.1%	24.3%
Sarpsborg	65.6%	27.4%
Sarpsborg 08	64.7%	27.9%
Moss	63.8%	29.7%
Sandefjord	61.9%	32.6%
Varegg	60.2%	34.7%
Geithus	59.1%	35.3%
Nordnes	51.5%	44.4%
Freidig	39.1%	59.6%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Asker	Fredrikstad	Freidig	Geithus	IF Odd	Larvik Turn	Lillestrom	Moss	Nordnes	Sandefjord	Sarpsborg	Sarpsborg 08	Skeid	Strommen	Varegg	Viking
Asker		90.00%	17.00%	39.00%	58.00%		139.00%	39.00%			60.00%			88.00%
Fredrikstad	137.00%					336.00%			50.00%	75.00%		93.00%	282.00%		68.00%	110.00%
Freidig	6.00%					7.00%			3.00%	3.00%		6.00%	5.00%		3.00%	2.00%
Geithus	20.00%					66.00%			13.00%	10.00%		18.00%	46.00%		14.00%	29.00%
IF Odd	44.00%					130.00%			26.00%	24.00%		37.00%	95.00%		24.00%	39.00%
Larvik Turn		376.00%	43.00%	112.00%	204.00%		518.00%	146.00%			138.00%			310.00%
Lillestrom	207.00%					537.00%			92.00%	107.00%		133.00%	395.00%		106.00%	151.00%
Moss	24.00%					65.00%			15.00%	16.00%		21.00%	50.00%		13.00%	24.00%
Nordnes		30.00%	5.00%	15.00%	22.00%		37.00%	10.00%			13.00%			31.00%
Sandefjord		38.00%	3.00%	11.00%	30.00%		64.00%	22.00%			17.00%			43.00%
Sarpsborg	39.00%					93.00%			6.00%	16.00%		21.00%	60.00%		20.00%	28.00%
Sarpsborg 08		76.00%	6.00%	24.00%	48.00%		84.00%	20.00%			19.00%			65.00%
Skeid		258.00%	17.00%	96.00%	139.00%		411.00%	130.00%			122.00%			237.00%
Strommen	82.00%					251.00%			41.00%	70.00%		69.00%	168.00%		72.00%	88.00%
Varegg		33.00%	3.00%	10.00%	13.00%		52.00%	20.00%			15.00%			43.00%
Viking		59.00%	6.00%	29.00%	48.00%		101.00%	37.00%			36.00%			74.00%

Actual Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Just the teams that actually reached the promotion playoff. With the field fixed in place, the playoff sim re-runs every tie and tallies how often each team won each round — the table gives those probabilities, and the final round's column is the chance of winning the playoff outright. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pairing met in that round.

Team	Finals
Skeid	56.0%
Fredrikstad	44.0%

Loser → ↓ Winner	Fredrikstad	Skeid
Fredrikstad		44.00%
Skeid	56.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1953-07-26	Viking	D 3-3	1535	1532	50.2%	23.1%	26.7%	-0.2	1
1953-07-26	@ Asker	D 3-3	1532	1535	26.7%	23.1%	50.2%	+0.2	1
1953-07-26	Lillestrom	W 2-0	1554	1572	47.5%	23.4%	29.1%	+4.2	3
1953-07-26	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-2	1572	1554	29.1%	23.4%	47.5%	-4.2	0
1953-07-26	Moss	L 1-4	1538	1538	49.8%	23.1%	27.1%	-7.8	0
1953-07-26	@ Geithus	W 4-1	1538	1538	27.1%	23.1%	49.8%	+7.8	3
1953-07-26	Sandefjord	D 1-1	1598	1517	59.9%	20.7%	19.4%	-0.6	1
1953-07-26	@ Larvik Turn	D 1-1	1517	1598	19.4%	20.7%	59.9%	+0.6	1
1953-07-26	Sarpsborg	D 1-1	1534	1529	50.6%	23.0%	26.4%	-0.4	1
1953-07-26	@ IF Odd	D 1-1	1529	1534	26.4%	23.0%	50.6%	+0.4	1
1953-07-26	Nordnes	W 2-0	1516	1538	46.8%	23.4%	29.8%	+4.2	3
1953-07-26	@ Sarpsborg 08	L 0-2	1538	1516	29.8%	23.4%	46.8%	-4.2	0
1953-07-26	Freidig	W 2-1	1541	1449	61.1%	20.3%	18.6%	+1.4	3
1953-07-26	@ Strommen	L 1-2	1449	1541	18.6%	20.3%	61.1%	-1.4	0
1953-07-26	Skeid	D 3-3	1543	1572	46.0%	23.5%	30.5%	-0.1	1
1953-07-26	@ Varegg	D 3-3	1572	1543	30.5%	23.5%	46.0%	+0.1	1
1953-08-02	Geithus	W 2-0	1448	1530	38.6%	23.5%	37.9%	+5.1	3
1953-08-02	@ Freidig	L 0-2	1530	1448	37.9%	23.5%	38.6%	-5.1	0
1953-08-02	IF Odd	W 2-0	1568	1534	54.1%	22.3%	23.5%	+3.5	3
1953-08-02	@ Lillestrom	L 0-2	1534	1568	23.5%	22.3%	54.1%	-3.5	1
1953-08-02	Fredrikstad	L 0-3	1546	1559	48.2%	23.3%	28.5%	-9.0	3
1953-08-02	@ Moss	W 3-0	1559	1546	28.5%	23.3%	48.2%	+9.0	6
1953-08-02	Asker	L 0-3	1534	1535	49.7%	23.1%	27.2%	-9.3	0
1953-08-02	@ Nordnes	W 3-0	1535	1534	27.2%	23.1%	49.7%	+9.3	4
1953-08-02	Varegg	W 6-0	1517	1543	46.4%	23.5%	30.1%	+11.9	4
1953-08-02	@ Sandefjord	L 0-6	1543	1517	30.1%	23.5%	46.4%	-11.9	1
1953-08-02	Strommen	L 1-4	1529	1542	48.0%	23.3%	28.6%	-7.6	1
1953-08-02	@ Sarpsborg	W 4-1	1542	1529	28.6%	23.3%	48.0%	+7.6	6
1953-08-02	Sarpsborg 08	W 5-1	1572	1520	56.4%	21.8%	21.8%	+5.1	4
1953-08-02	@ Skeid	L 1-5	1520	1572	21.8%	21.8%	56.4%	-5.1	3
1953-08-02	Larvik Turn	W 2-1	1532	1597	41.0%	23.6%	35.4%	+2.4	4
1953-08-02	@ Viking	L 1-2	1597	1532	35.4%	23.6%	41.0%	-2.4	1
1953-08-16	Freidig	L 2-3	1568	1453	63.7%	19.2%	17.0%	-3.7	6
1953-08-16	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-2	1453	1568	17.0%	19.2%	63.7%	+3.7	6
1953-08-16	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	1525	1521	50.3%	23.0%	26.7%	+2.0	3
1953-08-16	@ Geithus	L 0-1	1521	1525	26.7%	23.0%	50.3%	-2.0	1
1953-08-16	Nordnes	W 12-0	1595	1525	58.6%	21.1%	20.3%	+16.1	4
1953-08-16	@ Larvik Turn	L 0-12	1525	1595	20.3%	21.1%	58.6%	-16.1	0
1953-08-16	Moss	W 7-0	1571	1537	54.2%	22.3%	23.5%	+11.1	6
1953-08-16	@ Lillestrom	L 0-7	1537	1571	23.5%	22.3%	54.2%	-11.1	3
1953-08-16	Strommen	L 0-2	1531	1550	47.3%	23.4%	29.3%	-6.1	1
1953-08-16	@ IF Odd	W 2-0	1550	1531	29.3%	23.4%	47.3%	+6.1	9
1953-08-16	Asker	W 3-1	1515	1544	45.9%	23.5%	30.6%	+3.8	6
1953-08-16	@ Sarpsborg 08	L 1-3	1544	1515	30.6%	23.5%	45.9%	-3.8	4
1953-08-16	Sandefjord	W 4-2	1577	1529	55.9%	21.9%	22.2%	+2.5	7
1953-08-16	@ Skeid	L 2-4	1529	1577	22.2%	21.9%	55.9%	-2.5	4
1953-08-16	Viking	L 0-2	1531	1534	49.4%	23.2%	27.4%	-6.4	1
1953-08-16	@ Varegg	W 2-0	1534	1531	27.4%	23.2%	49.4%	+6.4	7
1953-08-30	Lillestrom	L 1-2	1457	1583	32.9%	22.9%	44.2%	-2.3	6
1953-08-30	@ Freidig	W 2-1	1583	1457	44.2%	22.9%	32.9%	+2.3	9
1953-08-30	Varegg	L 1-2	1509	1525	47.6%	23.4%	29.0%	-3.1	0
1953-08-30	@ Nordnes	W 2-1	1525	1509	29.0%	23.4%	47.6%	+3.1	4
1953-08-30	Fredrikstad	L 2-3	1519	1564	43.9%	23.6%	32.5%	-2.7	1
1953-08-30	@ Sarpsborg	W 3-2	1564	1519	32.5%	23.6%	43.9%	+2.7	9
1953-09-06	Strommen	L 0-1	1567	1556	51.2%	22.9%	25.9%	-3.5	9
1953-09-06	@ Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1556	1567	25.9%	22.9%	51.2%	+3.5	12
1953-09-06	Sarpsborg	W 3-1	1585	1517	58.3%	21.2%	20.5%	+2.6	12
1953-09-06	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	1517	1585	20.5%	21.2%	58.3%	-2.6	1
1953-09-06	Freidig	D 0-0	1526	1454	58.7%	21.1%	20.2%	-0.7	4
1953-09-06	@ Moss	D 0-0	1454	1526	20.2%	21.1%	58.7%	+0.7	7
1953-09-06	Geithus	W 2-1	1524	1527	49.4%	23.2%	27.4%	+2.0	4
1953-09-06	@ IF Odd	L 1-2	1527	1524	27.4%	23.2%	49.4%	-2.0	3
1953-09-06	Viking	W 3-2	1527	1541	48.0%	23.3%	28.7%	+2.0	7
1953-09-06	@ Sandefjord	L 2-3	1541	1527	28.7%	23.3%	48.0%	-1.9	7
1953-09-06	Larvik Turn	D 0-0	1518	1611	37.2%	23.4%	39.4%	+0.0	7
1953-09-06	@ Sarpsborg 08	D 0-0	1611	1518	39.4%	23.4%	37.2%	-0.0	5
1953-09-06	Nordnes	W 3-0	1580	1505	59.1%	21.0%	20.0%	+4.3	10
1953-09-06	@ Skeid	L 0-3	1505	1580	20.0%	21.0%	59.1%	-4.3	0
1953-09-06	Asker	D 1-1	1528	1540	48.2%	23.3%	28.5%	-0.3	5
1953-09-06	@ Varegg	D 1-1	1540	1528	28.5%	23.3%	48.2%	+0.3	5
1953-09-20	Fredrikstad	L 2-3	1525	1563	44.8%	23.6%	31.6%	-2.8	3
1953-09-20	@ Geithus	W 3-2	1563	1525	31.6%	23.6%	44.8%	+2.8	12
1953-09-20	Varegg	W 3-2	1611	1528	60.1%	20.6%	19.3%	+1.3	8
1953-09-20	@ Larvik Turn	L 2-3	1528	1611	19.3%	20.6%	60.1%	-1.3	5
1953-09-20	Sandefjord	W 2-0	1501	1529	46.2%	23.5%	30.3%	+4.3	3
1953-09-20	@ Nordnes	L 0-2	1529	1501	30.3%	23.5%	46.2%	-4.3	7
1953-09-20	Moss	W 3-2	1514	1525	48.3%	23.3%	28.4%	+1.9	4
1953-09-20	@ Sarpsborg	L 2-3	1525	1514	28.4%	23.3%	48.3%	-1.9	4
1953-09-20	Skeid	W 2-1	1518	1584	41.0%	23.6%	35.4%	+2.4	10
1953-09-20	@ Sarpsborg 08	L 1-2	1584	1518	35.4%	23.6%	41.0%	-2.4	10
1953-09-27	IF Odd	L 1-3	1455	1526	40.2%	23.6%	36.2%	-4.7	7
1953-09-27	@ Freidig	W 3-1	1526	1455	36.2%	23.6%	40.2%	+4.6	7
1953-09-27	Lillestrom	W 5-2	1560	1587	46.1%	23.5%	30.4%	+4.6	15
1953-09-27	@ Strommen	L 2-5	1587	1560	30.4%	23.5%	46.1%	-4.6	12
1953-09-27	Viking	L 0-1	1506	1539	45.4%	23.5%	31.1%	-3.1	3
1953-09-27	@ Nordnes	W 1-0	1539	1506	31.1%	23.5%	45.4%	+3.1	10
1953-10-04	IF Odd	W 4-2	1566	1531	54.2%	22.3%	23.5%	+2.7	15
1953-10-04	@ Fredrikstad	L 2-4	1531	1566	23.5%	22.3%	54.2%	-2.7	7
1953-10-04	Sarpsborg	W 4-2	1450	1516	41.0%	23.6%	35.4%	+3.8	10
1953-10-04	@ Freidig	L 2-4	1516	1450	35.4%	23.6%	41.0%	-3.8	4
1953-10-04	Geithus	W 10-0	1583	1523	57.4%	21.5%	21.1%	+14.1	15
1953-10-04	@ Lillestrom	L 0-10	1523	1583	21.1%	21.5%	57.4%	-14.1	3
1953-10-04	Strommen	D 2-2	1523	1564	44.4%	23.6%	32.0%	-0.1	5
1953-10-04	@ Moss	D 2-2	1564	1523	32.0%	23.6%	44.4%	+0.1	16
1953-10-04	Asker	L 1-2	1524	1540	47.7%	23.4%	28.9%	-3.1	7
1953-10-04	@ Sandefjord	W 2-1	1540	1524	28.9%	23.4%	47.7%	+3.1	8
1953-10-04	Varegg	W 4-1	1521	1526	49.1%	23.2%	27.7%	+4.9	13
1953-10-04	@ Sarpsborg 08	L 1-4	1526	1521	27.7%	23.2%	49.1%	-4.9	5
1953-10-04	Larvik Turn	W 2-0	1582	1612	45.7%	23.5%	30.8%	+4.4	13
1953-10-04	@ Skeid	L 0-2	1612	1582	30.8%	23.5%	45.7%	-4.4	8
1953-10-04	Nordnes	W 2-0	1542	1502	54.8%	22.1%	23.0%	+3.4	13
1953-10-04	@ Viking	L 0-2	1502	1542	23.0%	22.1%	54.8%	-3.4	3
1953-10-11	Skeid	L 1-2	1608	1586	52.7%	22.6%	24.7%	-3.4	8
1953-10-11	@ Larvik Turn	W 2-1	1586	1608	24.7%	22.6%	52.7%	+3.3	16
1953-10-11	Fredrikstad	W 2-1	1528	1569	44.5%	23.6%	31.9%	+2.2	10
1953-10-11	@ IF Odd	L 1-2	1569	1528	31.9%	23.6%	44.5%	-2.2	15
1953-10-11	Freidig	W 5-1	1512	1454	57.1%	21.6%	21.3%	+5.0	7
1953-10-11	@ Sarpsborg	L 1-5	1454	1512	21.3%	21.6%	57.1%	-5.0	10
1953-10-11	Moss	D 2-2	1564	1523	55.0%	22.1%	22.9%	-0.4	17
1953-10-11	@ Strommen	D 2-2	1523	1564	22.9%	22.1%	55.0%	+0.4	6
1953-10-18	Lillestrom	L 1-3	1508	1597	37.8%	23.5%	38.7%	-4.4	3
1953-10-18	@ Geithus	W 3-1	1597	1508	38.7%	23.5%	37.8%	+4.4	18
1953-10-25	Skeid	W 3-1	1544	1589	43.7%	23.6%	32.7%	+4.0	11
1953-10-25	@ Asker	L 1-3	1589	1544	32.7%	23.6%	43.7%	-4.0	16
1953-10-25	Sarpsborg 08	D 1-1	1545	1526	52.3%	22.7%	25.0%	-0.4	14
1953-10-25	@ Viking	D 1-1	1526	1545	25.0%	22.7%	52.3%	+0.4	14
1953-10-25	Sarpsborg 08	L 0-2	1522	1526	49.2%	23.2%	27.6%	-6.3	5
1953-10-25	@ Varegg	W 2-0	1526	1522	27.6%	23.2%	49.2%	+6.3	17
1954-04-25	Nordnes	D 0-0	1521	1499	52.7%	22.6%	24.7%	-0.5	8
1954-04-25	@ Sandefjord	D 0-0	1499	1521	24.7%	22.6%	52.7%	+0.5	4
1954-04-25	Asker	W 2-1	1585	1548	54.6%	22.2%	23.2%	+1.7	19
1954-04-25	@ Skeid	L 1-2	1548	1585	23.2%	22.2%	54.6%	-1.7	11
1954-05-02	IF Odd	L 2-4	1524	1531	48.9%	23.2%	27.9%	-4.9	6
1954-05-02	@ Moss	W 4-2	1531	1524	27.9%	23.2%	48.9%	+4.9	13
1954-05-02	Geithus	W 6-0	1564	1504	57.3%	21.5%	21.2%	+8.7	20
1954-05-02	@ Strommen	L 0-6	1504	1564	21.2%	21.5%	57.3%	-8.7	3
1954-05-02	Sandefjord	L 2-3	1546	1521	53.0%	22.6%	24.4%	-3.2	11
1954-05-02	@ Asker	W 3-2	1521	1546	24.4%	22.6%	53.0%	+3.2	11
1954-05-02	Viking	D 1-1	1533	1545	48.2%	23.3%	28.5%	-0.3	18
1954-05-02	@ Sarpsborg 08	D 1-1	1545	1533	28.5%	23.3%	48.2%	+0.3	15
1954-05-02	Larvik Turn	L 0-4	1515	1605	37.6%	23.5%	38.9%	-9.7	5
1954-05-02	@ Varegg	W 4-0	1605	1515	38.9%	23.5%	37.6%	+9.7	11
1954-05-09	Strommen	L 0-1	1449	1573	33.2%	22.9%	43.9%	-2.4	10
1954-05-09	@ Freidig	W 1-0	1573	1449	43.9%	22.9%	33.2%	+2.4	23
1954-05-09	Fredrikstad	D 3-3	1601	1566	54.3%	22.3%	23.4%	-0.3	19
1954-05-09	@ Lillestrom	D 3-3	1566	1601	23.4%	22.3%	54.3%	+0.3	16
1954-05-09	Geithus	L 3-5	1519	1495	52.8%	22.6%	24.6%	-4.9	6
1954-05-09	@ Moss	W 5-3	1495	1519	24.6%	22.6%	52.8%	+4.9	6
1954-05-09	IF Odd	D 1-1	1517	1536	47.4%	23.4%	29.2%	-0.3	8
1954-05-09	@ Sarpsborg	D 1-1	1536	1517	29.2%	23.4%	47.4%	+0.3	14
1954-05-09	Sarpsborg 08	L 1-3	1499	1532	45.5%	23.5%	31.0%	-5.1	4
1954-05-09	@ Nordnes	W 3-1	1532	1499	31.0%	23.5%	45.5%	+5.1	21
1954-05-09	Larvik Turn	L 1-2	1524	1614	37.5%	23.4%	39.0%	-2.5	11
1954-05-09	@ Sandefjord	W 2-1	1614	1524	39.0%	23.4%	37.5%	+2.5	14
1954-05-09	Varegg	W 2-0	1587	1506	59.9%	20.7%	19.4%	+2.9	22
1954-05-09	@ Skeid	L 0-2	1506	1587	19.4%	20.7%	59.9%	-2.9	5
1954-05-09	Asker	L 1-2	1545	1543	50.1%	23.1%	26.8%	-3.2	15
1954-05-09	@ Viking	W 2-1	1543	1545	26.8%	23.1%	50.1%	+3.2	14
1954-05-17	Moss	W 8-1	1567	1514	56.5%	21.7%	21.8%	+8.5	19
1954-05-17	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-8	1514	1567	21.8%	21.7%	56.5%	-8.5	6
1954-05-17	Freidig	D 0-0	1500	1447	56.6%	21.7%	21.7%	-0.6	7
1954-05-17	@ Geithus	D 0-0	1447	1500	21.7%	21.7%	56.6%	+0.6	11
1954-05-17	Lillestrom	D 3-3	1536	1601	41.0%	23.6%	35.4%	-0.0	15
1954-05-17	@ IF Odd	D 3-3	1601	1536	35.4%	23.6%	41.0%	+0.1	20
1954-05-17	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1575	1517	57.1%	21.6%	21.3%	-3.8	23
1954-05-17	@ Strommen	W 1-0	1517	1575	21.3%	21.6%	57.1%	+3.8	11
1954-05-17	Nordnes	W 2-0	1546	1494	56.3%	21.8%	21.9%	+3.2	17
1954-05-17	@ Asker	L 0-2	1494	1546	21.9%	21.8%	56.3%	-3.2	4
1954-05-17	Viking	W 2-1	1617	1542	59.2%	20.9%	19.9%	+1.5	17
1954-05-17	@ Larvik Turn	L 1-2	1542	1617	19.9%	20.9%	59.2%	-1.5	15
1954-05-17	Sandefjord	D 1-1	1503	1521	47.3%	23.4%	29.3%	-0.3	6
1954-05-17	@ Varegg	D 1-1	1521	1503	29.3%	23.4%	47.3%	+0.3	12
1954-05-23	Fredrikstad	L 2-4	1447	1575	32.7%	22.8%	44.5%	-3.5	11
1954-05-23	@ Freidig	W 4-2	1575	1447	44.5%	22.8%	32.7%	+3.5	22
1954-05-23	Lillestrom	L 2-6	1505	1601	36.8%	23.4%	39.8%	-6.7	6
1954-05-23	@ Moss	W 6-2	1601	1505	39.8%	23.4%	36.8%	+6.7	23
1954-05-23	Geithus	W 3-2	1521	1500	52.5%	22.7%	24.9%	+1.7	14
1954-05-23	@ Sarpsborg	L 2-3	1500	1521	24.9%	22.7%	52.5%	-1.7	7
1954-05-23	IF Odd	W 3-1	1571	1536	54.3%	22.3%	23.4%	+3.0	26
1954-05-23	@ Strommen	L 1-3	1536	1571	23.4%	22.3%	54.3%	-3.0	15
1954-05-23	Sarpsborg 08	L 1-2	1549	1537	51.3%	22.9%	25.8%	-3.3	17
1954-05-23	@ Asker	W 2-1	1537	1549	25.8%	22.9%	51.3%	+3.3	24
1954-05-23	Larvik Turn	L 2-3	1491	1618	32.7%	22.8%	44.5%	-2.2	4
1954-05-23	@ Nordnes	W 3-2	1618	1491	44.5%	22.8%	32.7%	+2.2	20
1954-05-23	Skeid	D 0-0	1522	1590	40.6%	23.6%	35.8%	-0.1	13
1954-05-23	@ Sandefjord	D 0-0	1590	1522	35.8%	23.6%	40.6%	+0.1	23
1954-05-23	Varegg	D 1-1	1540	1502	54.6%	22.2%	23.2%	-0.5	16
1954-05-23	@ Viking	D 1-1	1502	1540	23.2%	22.2%	54.6%	+0.5	7
1954-05-27	Sarpsborg 08	L 0-1	1522	1541	47.3%	23.4%	29.3%	-3.3	13
1954-05-27	@ Sandefjord	W 1-0	1541	1522	29.3%	23.4%	47.3%	+3.2	27
1954-05-27	Skeid	L 1-3	1540	1590	43.1%	23.6%	33.2%	-4.9	16
1954-05-27	@ Viking	W 3-1	1590	1540	33.2%	23.6%	43.1%	+4.9	26
1954-05-27	Sarpsborg	W 4-0	1579	1522	56.9%	21.6%	21.5%	+6.0	25
1954-05-27	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-4	1522	1579	21.5%	21.6%	56.9%	-6.0	14
1954-05-27	Strommen	D 2-2	1498	1574	39.5%	23.6%	36.9%	-0.0	8
1954-05-27	@ Geithus	D 2-2	1574	1498	36.9%	23.6%	39.5%	+0.0	27
1954-05-27	Freidig	W 2-0	1608	1444	69.2%	16.8%	14.0%	+2.0	26
1954-05-27	@ Lillestrom	L 0-2	1444	1608	14.0%	16.8%	69.2%	-2.0	11
1954-05-27	Moss	W 5-1	1533	1499	54.2%	22.3%	23.5%	+5.5	18
1954-05-27	@ IF Odd	L 1-5	1499	1533	23.5%	22.3%	54.2%	-5.5	6
1954-05-27	Asker	L 2-4	1621	1546	59.1%	20.9%	19.9%	-5.7	20
1954-05-27	@ Larvik Turn	W 4-2	1546	1621	19.9%	20.9%	59.1%	+5.7	20
1954-05-27	Nordnes	W 3-2	1503	1489	51.6%	22.8%	25.6%	+1.8	10
1954-05-27	@ Varegg	L 2-3	1489	1503	25.6%	22.8%	51.6%	-1.8	4
1954-06-07	Geithus	W 6-1	1585	1498	60.5%	20.5%	19.0%	+5.4	28
1954-06-07	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-6	1498	1585	19.0%	20.5%	60.5%	-5.4	8
1954-06-07	Strommen	D 1-1	1610	1574	54.4%	22.3%	23.4%	-0.5	27
1954-06-07	@ Lillestrom	D 1-1	1574	1610	23.4%	22.3%	54.4%	+0.5	28
1954-06-07	Sarpsborg	W 2-1	1493	1516	46.8%	23.4%	29.8%	+2.1	9
1954-06-07	@ Moss	L 1-2	1516	1493	29.8%	23.4%	46.8%	-2.1	14
1954-06-07	Freidig	D 1-1	1538	1442	61.7%	20.1%	18.3%	-0.7	19
1954-06-07	@ IF Odd	D 1-1	1442	1538	18.3%	20.1%	61.7%	+0.7	12
1954-06-07	Viking	W 2-0	1595	1535	57.3%	21.5%	21.2%	+3.1	29
1954-06-07	@ Skeid	L 0-2	1535	1595	21.2%	21.5%	57.3%	-3.1	16
1954-06-13	Varegg	W 6-2	1552	1505	55.7%	21.9%	22.3%	+4.4	23
1954-06-13	@ Asker	L 2-6	1505	1552	22.3%	21.9%	55.7%	-4.4	10
1954-06-13	Moss	W 4-2	1443	1495	42.8%	23.6%	33.6%	+3.6	15
1954-06-13	@ Freidig	L 2-4	1495	1443	33.6%	23.6%	42.8%	-3.6	9
1954-06-13	IF Odd	W 2-1	1492	1538	43.8%	23.6%	32.6%	+2.3	11
1954-06-13	@ Geithus	L 1-2	1538	1492	32.6%	23.6%	43.8%	-2.3	19
1954-06-13	Sarpsborg 08	W 4-3	1615	1544	58.7%	21.1%	20.2%	+1.4	23
1954-06-13	@ Larvik Turn	L 3-4	1544	1615	20.2%	21.1%	58.7%	-1.4	27
1954-06-13	Lillestrom	W 3-1	1514	1609	36.9%	23.4%	39.7%	+4.6	17
1954-06-13	@ Sarpsborg	L 1-3	1609	1514	39.7%	23.4%	36.9%	-4.6	27
1954-06-13	Fredrikstad	L 1-4	1575	1590	47.8%	23.4%	28.9%	-7.6	28
1954-06-13	@ Strommen	W 4-1	1590	1575	28.9%	23.4%	47.8%	+7.6	31
1954-06-13	Sandefjord	D 1-1	1532	1518	51.5%	22.8%	25.6%	-0.4	17
1954-06-13	@ Viking	D 1-1	1518	1532	25.6%	22.8%	51.5%	+0.4	14
1954-06-20	Larvik Turn	W 4-0	1556	1616	41.7%	23.6%	34.7%	+9.1	26
1954-06-20	@ Asker	L 0-4	1616	1556	34.7%	23.6%	41.7%	-9.1	23
1954-06-20	Sandefjord	W 4-1	1543	1519	52.9%	22.6%	24.6%	+4.4	30
1954-06-20	@ Sarpsborg 08	L 1-4	1519	1543	24.6%	22.6%	52.9%	-4.4	14
1954-06-20	Skeid	L 0-3	1487	1598	34.8%	23.2%	42.0%	-7.0	4
1954-06-20	@ Nordnes	W 3-0	1598	1487	42.0%	23.2%	34.8%	+7.0	32

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff W-L.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Record
1954-06-27	Skeid	W 2-1	1598	1605	48.9%	23.2%	27.9%	+2.0	1-0
1954-06-27	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1605	1598	27.9%	23.2%	48.9%	-2.0	0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1953-08-16	17.00%	Freidig	1453	3	@ Fredrikstad	1568	2
2	1954-05-27	19.94%	Asker	1546	4	@ Larvik Turn	1621	2
3	1954-05-17	21.33%	Sarpsborg	1517	1	@ Strommen	1575	0
4	1954-05-02	24.43%	Sandefjord	1521	3	@ Asker	1546	2
5	1954-05-09	24.60%	Geithus	1495	5	@ Moss	1519	3
6	1953-10-11	24.71%	Skeid	1586	2	@ Larvik Turn	1608	1
7	1954-05-23	25.81%	Sarpsborg 08	1537	2	@ Asker	1549	1
8	1953-09-06	25.92%	Strommen	1556	1	@ Fredrikstad	1567	0
9	1954-05-09	26.81%	Asker	1543	2	@ Viking	1545	1
10	1953-07-26	27.09%	Moss	1538	4	@ Geithus	1538	1
11	1953-08-02	27.16%	Asker	1535	3	@ Nordnes	1534	0
12	1953-08-16	27.41%	Viking	1534	2	@ Varegg	1531	0
13	1953-10-25	27.61%	Sarpsborg 08	1526	2	@ Varegg	1522	0
14	1954-05-02	27.89%	IF Odd	1531	4	@ Moss	1524	2
15	1953-08-02	28.52%	Fredrikstad	1559	3	@ Moss	1546	0
16	1953-08-02	28.62%	Strommen	1542	4	@ Sarpsborg	1529	1
17	1954-06-13	28.87%	Fredrikstad	1590	4	@ Strommen	1575	1
18	1953-10-04	28.95%	Asker	1540	2	@ Sandefjord	1524	1
19	1953-08-30	28.99%	Varegg	1525	2	@ Nordnes	1509	1
20	1954-05-27	29.29%	Sarpsborg 08	1541	1	@ Sandefjord	1522	0
21	1953-08-16	29.33%	Strommen	1550	2	@ IF Odd	1531	0
22	1954-05-09	31.00%	Sarpsborg 08	1532	3	@ Nordnes	1499	1
23	1953-09-27	31.05%	Viking	1539	1	@ Nordnes	1506	0
24	1953-09-20	31.65%	Fredrikstad	1563	3	@ Geithus	1525	2
25	1953-08-30	32.54%	Fredrikstad	1564	3	@ Sarpsborg	1519	2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1953-08-16	16.14	@ Larvik Turn	12	1595	58.59%	Nordnes	0	1525	20.30%
2	1953-10-04	14.10	@ Lillestrom	10	1583	57.38%	Geithus	0	1523	21.14%
3	1953-08-02	11.91	@ Sandefjord	6	1517	46.39%	Varegg	0	1543	30.14%
4	1953-08-16	11.09	@ Lillestrom	7	1571	54.20%	Moss	0	1537	23.50%
5	1954-05-02	9.68	Larvik Turn	4	1605	38.89%	@ Varegg	0	1515	37.65%
6	1953-08-02	9.29	Asker	3	1535	27.16%	@ Nordnes	0	1534	49.72%
7	1954-06-20	9.09	@ Asker	4	1556	41.70%	Larvik Turn	0	1616	34.66%
8	1953-08-02	9.04	Fredrikstad	3	1559	28.52%	@ Moss	0	1546	48.17%
9	1954-05-02	8.68	@ Strommen	6	1564	57.32%	Geithus	0	1504	21.18%
10	1954-05-17	8.49	@ Fredrikstad	8	1567	56.48%	Moss	1	1514	21.79%
11	1953-07-26	7.84	Moss	4	1538	27.09%	@ Geithus	1	1538	49.81%
12	1953-08-02	7.61	Strommen	4	1542	28.62%	@ Sarpsborg	1	1529	48.05%
13	1954-06-13	7.58	Fredrikstad	4	1590	28.87%	@ Strommen	1	1575	47.78%
14	1954-06-20	6.95	Skeid	3	1598	42.03%	@ Nordnes	0	1487	34.81%
15	1954-05-23	6.72	Lillestrom	6	1601	39.82%	@ Moss	2	1505	36.79%
16	1953-08-16	6.37	Viking	2	1534	27.41%	@ Varegg	0	1531	49.43%
17	1953-10-25	6.34	Sarpsborg 08	2	1526	27.61%	@ Varegg	0	1522	49.20%
18	1953-08-16	6.13	Strommen	2	1550	29.33%	@ IF Odd	0	1531	47.27%
19	1954-05-27	6.01	@ Fredrikstad	4	1579	56.90%	Sarpsborg	0	1522	21.49%
20	1954-05-27	5.72	Asker	4	1546	19.94%	@ Larvik Turn	2	1621	59.12%
21	1954-05-27	5.46	@ IF Odd	5	1533	54.18%	Moss	1	1499	23.52%
22	1954-06-07	5.42	@ Fredrikstad	6	1585	60.53%	Geithus	1	1498	19.00%
23	1954-05-09	5.14	Sarpsborg 08	3	1532	31.00%	@ Nordnes	1	1499	45.46%
24	1953-08-02	5.12	@ Freidig	2	1448	38.62%	Geithus	0	1530	37.85%
25	1953-08-02	5.09	@ Skeid	5	1572	56.41%	Sarpsborg 08	1	1520	21.84%