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1963 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Brann

24 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1961-62

Relegated

Gjovik-Lyn

11 pts

Steinkjer · 14 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Lyn Oslo

4.48 points above expected

23 points · 18.52 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valerenga

6.17 points below expected

16 points · 22.17 expected points

League Changes

  • Norway changed to a spring-fall schedule for this season.

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Brann Champion 18 10 4 4 24 46 27 +19 21.93 +2.07
2 Lyn Oslo 18 10 3 5 23 38 28 +10 18.52 +4.48
3 Skeid 18 9 2 7 20 41 26 +15 20.29 -0.29
4 Fredrikstad 18 7 6 5 20 32 25 +7 18.51 +1.49
5 Frigg Oslo 18 6 6 6 18 31 40 -9 17.02 +0.98
6 Sarpsborg 18 6 5 7 17 26 35 -9 13.64 +3.36
7 Viking 18 6 5 7 17 26 37 -11 15.23 +1.77
8 Valerenga 18 7 2 9 16 44 37 +7 22.17 -6.17
9 Steinkjer Relegated 18 5 4 9 14 23 34 -11 18.86 -4.86
10 Gjovik-Lyn Relegated 18 5 1 12 11 29 47 -18 13.83 -2.83

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 23 18.52 +4.48
2 Sarpsborg 17 13.64 +3.36
3 Brann 24 21.93 +2.07
4 Viking 17 15.23 +1.77
5 Fredrikstad 20 18.51 +1.49

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valerenga 16 22.17 -6.17
2 Steinkjer 14 18.86 -4.86
3 Gjovik-Lyn 11 13.83 -2.83
4 Skeid 20 20.29 -0.29
5 Frigg Oslo 18 17.02 +0.98

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 4 May 23 – Jun 15 1 in 160
2 Frigg Oslo 3 Aug 6 – Aug 22 1 in 65
3 Brann 4 Jun 9 – Jul 28 1 in 30
4 Skeid 4 May 19 – May 30 1 in 14
5 Gjovik-Lyn 2 May 23 – May 26 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gjovik-Lyn 8 Jun 8 – Aug 21 1 in 295
2 Skeid 6 Jun 9 – Aug 18 1 in 215
3 Valerenga 3 Apr 28 – May 12 1 in 58
4 Lyn Oslo 3 Sep 7 – Oct 6 1 in 39
5 Steinkjer 4 Sep 7 – Oct 12 1 in 33

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 10 Apr 26 – Jul 26 1 in 209
2 Frigg Oslo 7 Aug 6 – Oct 6 1 in 68
3 Fredrikstad 9 Jul 28 – Oct 13 1 in 59
4 Viking 6 Jun 22 – Aug 21 1 in 28
5 Sarpsborg 4 Aug 2 – Aug 25 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Gjovik-Lyn 10 Jun 8 – Sep 22 1 in 32
2 Steinkjer 7 Aug 17 – Oct 12 1 in 23
3 Brann 4 May 19 – May 30 1 in 15
4 Skeid 6 Jun 9 – Aug 18 1 in 15
5 Fredrikstad 5 May 12 – Jun 8 1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Brann 1362 24 +19 9 6.3 +2.7
Lyn Oslo 1281 23 +2 4 5.2 -1.2
Skeid 1319 20 +34 9 5.3 +3.7
Fredrikstad 1299 20 +21 8 5.2 +2.8
Frigg Oslo 1241 18 -5 5 5.3 -0.3
Sarpsborg 1170 17 -8 3 4.1 -1.1
Viking 1214 17 -14 2 4.3 -2.3
Valerenga 1334 16 -25 3 5.7 -2.7
Steinkjer 1244 14 -20 1 4.6 -3.6
Gjovik-Lyn 1162 11 -9 5 3.9 +1.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE FO GJO LO SAR SKE STE VAL VIK
Brann —
0-2-0
3.26
1-0-1
3.60
1-0-1
3.86
1-0-1
3.28
1-1-0
3.99
1-0-1
3.03
2-0-0
3.20
2-0-0
2.72
1-1-0
3.65
Fredrikstad
0-2-0
2.30
 —
1-1-0
3.08
0-1-1
3.54
1-0-1
2.69
0-1-1
3.63
2-0-0
2.72
2-0-0
2.91
0-1-1
2.26
1-0-1
3.27
Frigg Oslo
1-0-1
1.97
0-1-1
2.48
 —
2-0-0
3.07
0-1-1
2.49
0-1-1
3.22
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
2.42
1-0-1
1.97
1-1-0
2.87
Gjovik-Lyn
1-0-1
1.72
1-1-0
2.02
0-0-2
2.49
 —
1-0-1
2.05
1-0-1
2.85
0-0-2
2.08
0-0-2
2.17
0-0-2
1.64
1-0-1
2.54
Lyn Oslo
1-0-1
2.29
1-0-1
2.87
1-1-0
3.07
1-0-1
3.52
 —
1-0-1
3.54
1-1-0
2.61
1-1-0
2.63
2-0-0
2.12
1-0-1
3.08
Sarpsborg
0-1-1
1.60
1-1-0
1.94
1-1-0
2.34
1-0-1
2.70
1-0-1
2.03
 —
0-0-2
1.96
1-1-0
2.05
1-0-1
1.52
0-1-1
2.40
Skeid
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.84
1-1-0
3.18
2-0-0
3.49
0-1-1
2.95
2-0-0
3.62
 —
1-0-1
3.11
1-0-1
2.33
1-0-1
3.36
Steinkjer
0-0-2
2.37
0-0-2
2.65
0-1-1
3.13
2-0-0
3.39
0-1-1
2.92
0-1-1
3.52
1-0-1
2.45
 —
1-0-1
2.28
1-1-0
3.18
Valerenga
0-0-2
2.84
1-1-0
3.30
1-0-1
3.61
2-0-0
3.95
0-0-2
3.45
1-0-1
4.08
1-0-1
3.23
1-0-1
3.28
 —
0-1-1
3.80
Viking
0-1-1
1.92
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
2.68
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.49
1-1-0
3.16
1-0-1
2.20
0-1-1
2.38
1-1-0
1.78
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.38 +3.0
Allowed 0.68 -4.6
Differential 0.70 +2.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
01.11%4.44%3.33%3.33%1.11%2.78%16.11%
14.44%10.00%8.33%5.56%2.22%2.78%33.33%
23.33%8.33%6.67%2.22%1.67%0.56%22.78%
33.33%5.56%2.22%3.33%1.11%—15.56%
41.11%2.22%1.67%1.11%——6.11%
5+2.78%2.78%0.56%———6.11%
Total16.11%33.33%22.78%15.56%6.11%6.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.87 1.87 +0.00
SD 1.55 1.55 2.51
CV 0.83 0.83 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
1—22.22%5.56%———27.78%
2—11.11%————11.11%
311.11%16.67%——5.56%—33.33%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—11.11%————11.11%
Total11.11%61.11%16.67%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.56 1.50 +1.06
SD 2.15 1.42 2.90
CV 0.84 0.95 —
Max 8 6 +7
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
116.67%16.67%16.67%11.11%——61.11%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3———5.56%——5.56%
45.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%33.33%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.39 +0.39
SD 1.17 1.09 1.61
CV 0.66 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%11.11%—5.56%27.78%
15.56%11.11%5.56%——5.56%27.78%
2——11.11%———11.11%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%22.22%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 2.22 -0.50
SD 1.60 2.18 3.03
CV 0.93 0.98 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
1——5.56%5.56%11.11%—22.22%
25.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total5.56%27.78%16.67%22.22%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 2.61 -1.00
SD 1.29 1.75 2.50
CV 0.80 0.67 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
1—5.56%—11.11%——16.67%
25.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
35.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4———————
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total22.22%27.78%27.78%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.11 1.56 +0.56
SD 1.60 1.20 2.50
CV 0.76 0.77 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%——5.56%11.11%
111.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%—5.56%50.00%
25.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.94 -0.50
SD 0.92 1.89 2.31
CV 0.64 0.97 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%————22.22%
1—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
2—5.56%————5.56%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total5.56%55.56%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.28 1.44 +0.83
SD 1.87 0.78 2.01
CV 0.82 0.54 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%—11.11%5.56%—27.78%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%38.89%11.11%27.78%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.89 -0.61
SD 1.02 1.28 1.72
CV 0.80 0.68 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%—5.56%16.67%
1——16.67%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2——11.11%—5.56%—16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+16.67%—————16.67%
Total22.22%16.67%27.78%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 2.06 +0.39
SD 2.20 1.73 3.57
CV 0.90 0.84 —
Max 7 6 +7
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%50.00%
25.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%11.11%11.11%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.06 -0.61
SD 0.70 1.63 1.85
CV 0.49 0.79 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Brann 1362 24 21.93 +2.07 78.0% 13 16 19 22 24 27 31
Valerenga 1334 16 22.17 -6.17 1.0% 16 17 19 22 24 29 31
Skeid 1319 20 20.29 -0.29 53.0% 11 14 18 20 23 25 30
Fredrikstad 1299 20 18.51 +1.49 75.0% 9 14 16 18 20 25 26
Lyn Oslo 1281 23 18.52 +4.48 91.0% 11 14 16 18 20 25 29
Steinkjer 1244 14 18.86 -4.86 10.0% 10 13 17 19 21 25 27
Frigg Oslo 1241 18 17.02 +0.98 64.0% 10 11 14 17 19 23 25
Viking 1214 17 15.23 +1.77 73.0% 7 9 13 15 18 22 23
Sarpsborg 1170 17 13.64 +3.36 82.0% 6 8 11 13 17 19 21
Gjovik-Lyn 1162 11 13.83 -2.83 28.0% 7 8 11 14 16 21 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.44%
No Edge
46.67%21.11%32.22%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 50.54 Elo pts.
164 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.29 goals
Neutral
-2+0.31+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.2
Open
134610
Champion Preseason Odds
37%
Brann, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.84 * Some Luck: 2.84 to 4.25 * Lucky: 4.25 to 5.67 * Wild Swing: 5.67 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.5 * Close: 1.5 to 2.24 * Off: 2.24 to 2.99 * Way Off: 2.99 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.88 * A Surprise: 0.88 to 1.41 * Several Surprises: 1.41 to 1.94 * Many Surprises: 1.94 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.34 points
Some Luck
03.549
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.60
Off
01.874
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.00%
Lyn Oslo
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
Valerenga
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.140.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 68.02
1.05
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.351.551.752.5
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%61.5%69.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
76%
Even
50%78%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Few
0%45%100%
Blowouts
Expected
26%
Very Frequent
0%32%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.32
Very Even
00.320.380.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.91
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.34
Some Carryover
00.280.481
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Upset-Prone
0%27%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.62
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.37
Overconfident
0.1774211.001.82258
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.080
Well Within Noise
00.1740.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Brann37.00%20.00%11.00%15.00%6.00%3.00%5.00%1.00%2.00%—
Lyn Oslo9.00%8.00%9.00%15.00%15.00%20.00%10.00%10.00%3.00%1.00%
Skeid18.00%18.00%17.00%9.00%10.00%12.00%8.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%
Fredrikstad3.00%8.00%20.00%11.00%9.00%14.00%17.00%12.00%4.00%2.00%
Frigg Oslo2.00%7.00%6.00%8.00%12.00%12.00%16.00%18.00%11.00%8.00%
Sarpsborg—1.00%2.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%6.00%12.00%25.00%33.00%
Viking—2.00%6.00%4.00%5.00%15.00%16.00%9.00%21.00%22.00%
Valerenga23.00%26.00%14.00%14.00%15.00%1.00%6.00%1.00%——
Steinkjer8.00%8.00%13.00%16.00%15.00%11.00%8.00%10.00%8.00%3.00%
Gjovik-Lyn—2.00%2.00%2.00%6.00%4.00%8.00%22.00%24.00%30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Valerenga 100% —
Brann 98.00% 2.00%
Skeid 97.00% 3.00%
Lyn Oslo 96.00% 4.00%
Fredrikstad 94.00% 6.00%
Steinkjer 89.00% 11.00%
Frigg Oslo 81.00% 19.00%
Viking 57.00% 43.00%
Gjovik-Lyn 46.00% 54.00%
Sarpsborg 42.00% 58.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1963-04-26 Lyn Oslo D 1-152.0 1289 1240 55.79% 21.75% 22.46%+0.61 -0.7 1
1963-04-26 @ Skeid D 1-152.0 1240 1289 22.46% 21.75% 55.79%-0.61 +0.7 1
1963-04-28 Fredrikstad D 1-151.8 1251 1286 45.46% 22.36% 32.17%+0.10 -0.3 1
1963-04-28 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-151.8 1286 1251 32.17% 22.36% 45.46%-0.10 +0.3 1
1963-04-28 Brann W 2-041.6 1195 1348 29.50% 21.82% 48.69%-0.63 +8.9 2
1963-04-28 @ Gjovik-Lyn L 0-241.6 1348 1195 48.69% 21.82% 29.50%+0.63 -8.9 0
1963-04-28 Valerenga W 1-045.2 1161 1352 25.24% 21.32% 53.45%-0.85 +5.1 2
1963-04-28 @ Sarpsborg L 0-145.2 1352 1161 53.45% 21.32% 25.24%+0.85 -5.1 0
1963-04-28 Steinkjer L 1-345.1 1227 1278 43.30% 22.39% 34.31%+0.00 -7.0 0
1963-04-28 @ Viking W 3-145.1 1278 1227 34.31% 22.39% 43.30%+0.00 +7.0 2
1963-05-03 Sarpsborg W 2-032.5 1240 1166 58.53% 21.41% 20.06%+0.76 +4.3 3
1963-05-03 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-232.5 1166 1240 20.06% 21.41% 58.53%-0.76 -4.3 2
1963-05-04 Frigg Oslo W 8-133.2 1339 1251 59.99% 21.20% 18.82%+0.84 +10.7 2
1963-05-04 @ Brann L 1-833.2 1251 1339 18.82% 21.20% 59.99%-0.84 -10.7 1
1963-05-04 Skeid W 1-038.1 1286 1288 49.73% 22.22% 28.05%+0.30 +3.0 3
1963-05-04 @ Fredrikstad L 0-138.1 1288 1286 28.05% 22.22% 49.73%-0.30 -3.0 1
1963-05-05 Gjovik-Lyn W 2-032.5 1285 1203 59.29% 21.30% 19.41%+0.80 +4.2 4
1963-05-05 @ Steinkjer L 0-232.5 1203 1285 19.41% 21.30% 59.29%-0.80 -4.2 2
1963-05-05 Viking L 1-252.6 1347 1220 63.70% 20.51% 15.78%+1.08 -5.7 0
1963-05-05 @ Valerenga W 2-152.6 1220 1347 15.78% 20.51% 63.70%-1.08 +5.7 2
1963-05-12 Gjovik-Lyn W 1-036.1 1240 1199 54.86% 21.84% 23.30%+0.55 +2.6 3
1963-05-12 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-136.1 1199 1240 23.30% 21.84% 54.86%-0.55 -2.6 2
1963-05-12 Fredrikstad W 3-145.4 1162 1289 32.78% 22.08% 45.14%-0.47 +7.2 4
1963-05-12 @ Sarpsborg L 1-345.4 1289 1162 45.14% 22.08% 32.78%+0.47 -7.2 3
1963-05-12 Valerenga W 2-144.8 1289 1341 43.12% 22.39% 34.49%-0.01 +3.4 6
1963-05-12 @ Steinkjer L 1-244.8 1341 1289 34.49% 22.39% 43.12%+0.01 -3.4 0
1963-05-12 Lyn Oslo L 2-353.2 1226 1245 47.56% 22.31% 30.13%+0.19 -4.2 2
1963-05-12 @ Viking W 3-253.2 1245 1226 30.13% 22.31% 47.56%-0.19 +4.2 5
1963-05-19 Fredrikstad D 1-152.7 1350 1282 57.86% 21.50% 20.64%+0.72 -0.8 3
1963-05-19 @ Brann D 1-152.7 1282 1350 20.64% 21.50% 57.86%-0.72 +0.8 4
1963-05-19 Valerenga L 0-737.1 1243 1338 37.09% 22.29% 40.62%-0.27 -23.0 3
1963-05-19 @ Frigg Oslo W 7-037.1 1338 1243 40.62% 22.29% 37.09%+0.27 +23.0 2
1963-05-19 Skeid L 1-441.9 1197 1285 38.05% 22.32% 39.63%-0.23 -9.0 2
1963-05-19 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 4-141.9 1285 1197 39.63% 22.32% 38.05%+0.23 +9.0 3
1963-05-19 Steinkjer D 3-361.7 1249 1292 44.27% 22.38% 33.35%+0.04 -0.1 6
1963-05-19 @ Lyn Oslo D 3-361.7 1292 1249 33.35% 22.38% 44.27%-0.04 +0.1 7
1963-05-19 Viking L 1-246.4 1169 1222 43.06% 22.39% 34.56%-0.01 -4.0 4
1963-05-19 @ Sarpsborg W 2-146.4 1222 1169 34.56% 22.39% 43.06%+0.01 +4.0 4
1963-05-22 Frigg Oslo W 3-031.0 1294 1220 58.53% 21.41% 20.06%+0.76 +6.2 5
1963-05-22 @ Skeid L 0-331.0 1220 1294 20.06% 21.41% 58.53%-0.76 -6.2 3
1963-05-22 Brann D 1-152.1 1226 1349 33.30% 22.11% 44.59%-0.44 +0.2 5
1963-05-22 @ Viking D 1-152.1 1349 1226 44.59% 22.11% 33.30%+0.44 -0.2 4
1963-05-23 Gjovik-Lyn L 1-251.5 1283 1188 60.66% 21.09% 18.26%+0.88 -5.5 4
1963-05-23 @ Fredrikstad W 2-151.5 1188 1283 18.26% 21.09% 60.66%-0.88 +5.5 4
1963-05-23 Sarpsborg L 0-147.8 1293 1165 63.77% 20.50% 15.73%+1.08 -6.1 7
1963-05-23 @ Steinkjer W 1-047.8 1165 1293 15.73% 20.50% 63.77%-1.08 +6.1 6
1963-05-23 Lyn Oslo L 1-252.5 1361 1249 62.33% 20.79% 16.88%+0.99 -5.6 2
1963-05-23 @ Valerenga W 2-152.5 1249 1361 16.88% 20.79% 62.33%-0.99 +5.6 8
1963-05-26 Lyn Oslo L 0-643.4 1349 1254 60.60% 21.10% 18.30%+0.88 -30.3 4
1963-05-26 @ Brann W 6-043.4 1254 1349 18.30% 21.10% 60.60%-0.88 +30.3 10
1963-05-26 Valerenga L 1-344.7 1277 1355 39.50% 22.36% 38.14%-0.17 -6.5 4
1963-05-26 @ Fredrikstad W 3-144.7 1355 1277 38.14% 22.36% 39.50%+0.17 +6.5 4
1963-05-26 Steinkjer D 1-151.7 1213 1286 40.18% 22.37% 37.45%-0.14 -0.1 4
1963-05-26 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-151.7 1286 1213 37.45% 22.37% 40.18%+0.14 +0.1 8
1963-05-26 Viking W 5-138.6 1193 1226 45.73% 22.36% 31.91%+0.11 +10.1 6
1963-05-26 @ Gjovik-Lyn L 1-538.6 1226 1193 31.91% 22.36% 45.73%-0.11 -10.1 5
1963-05-27 Sarpsborg W 4-240.9 1300 1171 63.90% 20.47% 15.63%+1.09 +2.6 7
1963-05-27 @ Skeid L 2-440.9 1171 1300 15.63% 20.47% 63.90%-1.09 -2.6 6
1963-05-30 Brann W 2-143.3 1303 1318 47.98% 22.29% 29.73%+0.21 +3.0 9
1963-05-30 @ Skeid L 1-243.3 1318 1303 29.73% 22.29% 47.98%-0.21 -3.0 4
1963-06-08 Fredrikstad W 2-141.7 1285 1271 51.69% 22.10% 26.21%+0.39 +2.7 12
1963-06-08 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-241.7 1271 1285 26.21% 22.10% 51.69%-0.39 -2.7 4
1963-06-08 Gjovik-Lyn W 4-346.4 1362 1203 66.51% 19.86% 13.64%+1.27 +1.4 6
1963-06-08 @ Valerenga L 3-446.4 1203 1362 13.64% 19.86% 66.51%-1.27 -1.4 6
1963-06-09 Frigg Oslo W 2-143.5 1169 1213 44.11% 22.38% 33.50%+0.04 +3.3 8
1963-06-09 @ Sarpsborg L 1-243.5 1213 1169 33.50% 22.38% 44.11%-0.04 -3.3 4
1963-06-09 Brann L 0-339.6 1287 1315 46.26% 22.35% 31.40%+0.13 -12.5 8
1963-06-09 @ Steinkjer W 3-039.6 1315 1287 31.40% 22.35% 46.26%-0.13 +12.5 6
1963-06-09 Skeid W 1-041.4 1216 1306 37.82% 22.32% 39.86%-0.24 +4.0 7
1963-06-09 @ Viking L 0-141.4 1306 1216 39.86% 22.32% 37.82%+0.24 -4.0 9
1963-06-14 Valerenga L 1-345.7 1302 1363 41.83% 22.39% 35.78%-0.07 -6.8 9
1963-06-14 @ Skeid W 3-145.7 1363 1302 35.78% 22.39% 41.83%+0.07 +6.8 8
1963-06-15 Sarpsborg W 7-131.2 1328 1172 66.30% 19.91% 13.79%+1.25 +6.9 8
1963-06-15 @ Brann L 1-731.2 1172 1328 13.79% 19.91% 66.30%-1.25 -6.9 8
1963-06-15 Lyn Oslo L 2-350.5 1202 1287 38.44% 22.33% 39.22%-0.21 -3.5 6
1963-06-15 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 3-250.5 1287 1202 39.22% 22.33% 38.44%+0.21 +3.5 14
1963-06-16 Steinkjer W 4-245.6 1268 1274 49.19% 22.24% 28.56%+0.27 +4.5 6
1963-06-16 @ Fredrikstad L 2-445.6 1274 1268 28.56% 22.24% 49.19%-0.27 -4.5 8
1963-06-16 Viking W 5-137.7 1210 1220 48.72% 22.26% 29.02%+0.25 +9.3 6
1963-06-16 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-537.7 1220 1210 29.02% 22.26% 48.72%-0.25 -9.3 7
1963-06-22 Fredrikstad W 2-144.4 1211 1272 41.76% 22.38% 35.86%-0.07 +3.5 9
1963-06-22 @ Viking L 1-244.4 1272 1211 35.86% 22.38% 41.76%+0.07 -3.5 6
1963-06-23 Frigg Oslo D 2-257.1 1291 1219 58.24% 21.45% 20.31%+0.74 -0.6 15
1963-06-23 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-257.1 1219 1291 20.31% 21.45% 58.24%-0.74 +0.6 7
1963-06-23 Gjovik-Lyn W 3-034.5 1165 1198 45.64% 22.36% 32.00%+0.10 +9.3 10
1963-06-23 @ Sarpsborg L 0-334.5 1198 1165 32.00% 22.36% 45.64%-0.10 -9.3 6
1963-06-23 Skeid W 1-038.9 1270 1295 46.72% 22.33% 30.94%+0.15 +3.3 10
1963-06-23 @ Steinkjer L 0-138.9 1295 1270 30.94% 22.33% 46.72%-0.15 -3.3 9
1963-06-24 Brann L 2-454.5 1370 1335 54.22% 21.90% 23.88%+0.52 -7.6 8
1963-06-24 @ Valerenga W 4-254.5 1335 1370 23.88% 21.90% 54.22%-0.52 +7.6 10
1963-07-26 Skeid W 2-142.5 1290 1292 49.80% 22.21% 27.99%+0.30 +2.9 17
1963-07-26 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-242.5 1292 1290 27.99% 22.21% 49.80%-0.30 -2.9 9
1963-07-28 Gjovik-Lyn W 3-135.7 1342 1189 66.06% 19.97% 13.97%+1.24 +2.6 12
1963-07-28 @ Brann L 1-335.7 1189 1342 13.97% 19.97% 66.06%-1.24 -2.6 6
1963-07-28 Frigg Oslo W 2-033.5 1269 1220 55.79% 21.75% 22.46%+0.61 +4.7 8
1963-07-28 @ Fredrikstad L 0-233.5 1220 1269 22.46% 21.75% 55.79%-0.61 -4.7 7
1963-07-28 Viking D 2-257.0 1273 1214 56.88% 21.62% 21.50%+0.66 -0.6 11
1963-07-28 @ Steinkjer D 2-257.0 1214 1273 21.50% 21.62% 56.88%-0.66 +0.6 10
1963-07-29 Sarpsborg W 5-027.3 1362 1174 68.93% 19.18% 11.89%+1.45 +6.0 10
1963-07-29 @ Valerenga L 0-527.3 1174 1362 11.89% 19.18% 68.93%-1.45 -6.0 10
1963-08-02 Lyn Oslo W 2-040.2 1168 1293 33.08% 22.10% 44.82%-0.45 +8.3 12
1963-08-02 @ Sarpsborg L 0-240.2 1293 1168 44.82% 22.10% 33.08%+0.45 -8.3 17
1963-08-04 Steinkjer L 1-245.1 1187 1272 38.39% 22.33% 39.28%-0.21 -3.7 6
1963-08-04 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 2-145.1 1272 1187 39.28% 22.33% 38.39%+0.21 +3.7 13
1963-08-04 Fredrikstad L 0-145.1 1289 1274 51.82% 22.09% 26.09%+0.40 -5.0 9
1963-08-04 @ Skeid W 1-045.1 1274 1289 26.09% 22.09% 51.82%-0.40 +5.0 10
1963-08-04 Valerenga D 2-257.3 1215 1368 29.47% 21.81% 48.71%-0.63 +0.3 11
1963-08-04 @ Viking D 2-257.3 1368 1215 48.71% 21.81% 29.47%+0.63 -0.3 11
1963-08-06 Brann W 4-356.6 1215 1345 32.45% 22.06% 45.49%-0.48 +3.9 9
1963-08-06 @ Frigg Oslo L 3-456.6 1345 1215 45.49% 22.06% 32.45%+0.48 -3.9 12
1963-08-07 Gjovik-Lyn W 3-245.9 1215 1183 53.86% 21.94% 24.20%+0.50 +2.4 13
1963-08-07 @ Viking L 2-345.9 1183 1215 24.20% 21.94% 53.86%-0.50 -2.4 6
1963-08-17 Steinkjer W 4-030.5 1368 1276 60.36% 21.14% 18.50%+0.87 +7.5 13
1963-08-17 @ Valerenga L 0-430.5 1276 1368 18.50% 21.14% 60.36%-0.87 -7.5 13
1963-08-18 Skeid W 2-140.7 1341 1284 56.72% 21.64% 21.64%+0.66 +2.3 14
1963-08-18 @ Brann L 1-240.7 1284 1341 21.64% 21.64% 56.72%-0.66 -2.3 9
1963-08-18 Sarpsborg D 3-361.8 1279 1177 61.38% 20.96% 17.66%+0.93 -0.6 11
1963-08-18 @ Fredrikstad D 3-361.8 1177 1279 17.66% 20.96% 61.38%-0.93 +0.6 13
1963-08-18 Frigg Oslo L 1-443.8 1180 1219 44.93% 22.37% 32.70%+0.07 -10.2 6
1963-08-18 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 4-143.8 1219 1180 32.70% 22.37% 44.93%-0.07 +10.2 11
1963-08-18 Viking L 0-244.1 1285 1217 57.80% 21.51% 20.69%+0.72 -10.5 17
1963-08-18 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-044.1 1217 1285 20.69% 21.51% 57.80%-0.72 +10.5 15
1963-08-21 Brann D 1-152.3 1278 1343 41.30% 22.38% 36.32%-0.09 -0.1 12
1963-08-21 @ Fredrikstad D 1-152.3 1343 1278 36.32% 22.38% 41.30%+0.09 +0.1 15
1963-08-21 Gjovik-Lyn W 5-238.8 1281 1170 62.25% 20.80% 16.95%+0.98 +3.9 11
1963-08-21 @ Skeid L 2-538.8 1170 1281 16.95% 20.80% 62.25%-0.98 -3.9 6
1963-08-21 Lyn Oslo L 1-248.6 1268 1274 49.23% 22.24% 28.52%+0.27 -4.5 13
1963-08-21 @ Steinkjer W 2-148.6 1274 1268 28.52% 22.24% 49.23%-0.27 +4.5 19
1963-08-21 Sarpsborg D 1-151.6 1228 1177 55.97% 21.73% 22.30%+0.61 -0.8 16
1963-08-21 @ Viking D 1-151.6 1177 1228 22.30% 21.73% 55.97%-0.61 +0.7 14
1963-08-22 Frigg Oslo L 0-344.7 1375 1229 65.45% 20.12% 14.43%+1.20 -17.0 13
1963-08-22 @ Valerenga W 3-044.7 1229 1375 14.43% 20.12% 65.45%-1.20 +17.0 13
1963-08-24 Viking W 2-138.5 1343 1227 62.74% 20.71% 16.55%+1.01 +1.8 17
1963-08-24 @ Brann L 1-238.5 1227 1343 16.55% 20.71% 62.74%-1.01 -1.8 16
1963-08-25 Skeid D 3-361.7 1246 1285 44.91% 22.37% 32.72%+0.07 -0.2 14
1963-08-25 @ Frigg Oslo D 3-361.7 1285 1246 32.72% 22.37% 44.91%-0.07 +0.2 12
1963-08-25 Fredrikstad D 2-256.7 1166 1278 34.81% 22.20% 42.99%-0.37 +0.1 7
1963-08-25 @ Gjovik-Lyn D 2-256.7 1278 1166 42.99% 22.20% 34.81%+0.37 -0.1 13
1963-08-25 Valerenga W 5-036.8 1279 1358 39.25% 22.35% 38.40%-0.18 +17.2 21
1963-08-25 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-536.8 1358 1279 38.40% 22.35% 39.25%+0.18 -17.2 13
1963-08-25 Steinkjer D 1-151.5 1178 1264 38.36% 22.33% 39.31%-0.22 +0.0 15
1963-08-25 @ Sarpsborg D 1-151.5 1264 1178 39.31% 22.33% 38.36%+0.22 -0.0 14
1963-09-07 Brann L 1-346.0 1296 1345 43.51% 22.39% 34.11%+0.01 -7.0 21
1963-09-07 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-146.0 1345 1296 34.11% 22.39% 43.51%-0.01 +7.0 19
1963-09-07 Skeid L 1-342.6 1178 1285 35.38% 22.22% 42.39%-0.35 -6.0 15
1963-09-07 @ Sarpsborg W 3-142.6 1285 1178 42.39% 22.22% 35.38%+0.35 +6.0 14
1963-09-07 Frigg Oslo L 1-347.7 1264 1246 52.14% 22.07% 25.79%+0.41 -8.2 14
1963-09-07 @ Steinkjer W 3-147.7 1246 1264 25.79% 22.07% 52.14%-0.41 +8.2 16
1963-09-08 Fredrikstad D 2-257.7 1341 1278 57.38% 21.56% 21.06%+0.69 -0.6 14
1963-09-08 @ Valerenga D 2-257.7 1278 1341 21.06% 21.56% 57.38%-0.69 +0.6 14
1963-09-20 Sarpsborg D 2-256.9 1254 1172 59.40% 21.29% 19.32%+0.81 -0.7 17
1963-09-20 @ Frigg Oslo D 2-256.9 1172 1254 19.32% 21.29% 59.40%-0.81 +0.7 16
1963-09-22 Steinkjer W 3-030.8 1352 1256 60.83% 21.06% 18.12%+0.89 +5.7 21
1963-09-22 @ Brann L 0-330.8 1256 1352 18.12% 21.06% 60.83%-0.89 -5.7 14
1963-09-22 Lyn Oslo W 4-033.4 1278 1289 48.64% 22.27% 29.09%+0.24 +11.2 16
1963-09-22 @ Fredrikstad L 0-433.4 1289 1278 29.09% 22.27% 48.64%-0.24 -11.2 21
1963-09-22 Valerenga L 0-733.6 1166 1341 27.06% 21.56% 51.38%-0.75 -17.7 7
1963-09-22 @ Gjovik-Lyn W 7-033.6 1341 1166 51.38% 21.56% 27.06%+0.75 +17.7 16
1963-09-22 Viking W 4-136.6 1291 1225 57.67% 21.53% 20.80%+0.71 +5.4 16
1963-09-22 @ Skeid L 1-436.6 1225 1291 20.80% 21.53% 57.67%-0.71 -5.4 16
1963-10-04 Skeid L 1-646.2 1358 1297 57.18% 21.59% 21.23%+0.68 -20.0 16
1963-10-04 @ Valerenga W 6-146.2 1297 1358 21.23% 21.59% 57.18%-0.68 +20.0 18
1963-10-06 Gjovik-Lyn L 1-350.5 1278 1149 63.92% 20.47% 15.61%+1.09 -9.9 21
1963-10-06 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-150.5 1149 1278 15.61% 20.47% 63.92%-1.09 +9.9 9
1963-10-06 Brann D 1-152.1 1173 1358 25.84% 21.40% 52.77%-0.82 +0.6 17
1963-10-06 @ Sarpsborg D 1-152.1 1358 1173 52.77% 21.40% 25.84%+0.82 -0.6 22
1963-10-06 Fredrikstad L 0-143.0 1250 1290 44.80% 22.37% 32.83%+0.07 -4.4 14
1963-10-06 @ Steinkjer W 1-043.0 1290 1250 32.83% 22.37% 44.80%-0.07 +4.4 18
1963-10-06 Frigg Oslo D 0-048.3 1220 1254 45.57% 22.36% 32.07%+0.10 -0.3 17
1963-10-06 @ Viking D 0-048.3 1254 1220 32.07% 22.36% 45.57%-0.10 +0.3 18
1963-10-12 Steinkjer W 3-245.1 1317 1246 58.22% 21.45% 20.32%+0.74 +2.1 20
1963-10-12 @ Skeid L 2-345.1 1246 1317 20.32% 21.45% 58.22%-0.74 -2.1 14
1963-10-13 Valerenga W 3-141.1 1357 1338 52.30% 22.06% 25.64%+0.42 +4.6 24
1963-10-13 @ Brann L 1-341.1 1338 1357 25.64% 22.06% 52.30%-0.42 -4.6 16
1963-10-13 Viking W 4-136.3 1294 1220 58.57% 21.41% 20.02%+0.76 +5.2 20
1963-10-13 @ Fredrikstad L 1-436.3 1220 1294 20.02% 21.41% 58.57%-0.76 -5.2 17
1963-10-13 Lyn Oslo L 0-339.8 1254 1268 48.23% 22.28% 29.49%+0.22 -12.9 18
1963-10-13 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-039.8 1268 1254 29.49% 22.28% 48.23%-0.22 +12.9 23
1963-10-13 Sarpsborg W 2-142.3 1159 1173 48.11% 22.29% 29.60%+0.22 +3.0 11
1963-10-13 @ Gjovik-Lyn L 1-242.3 1173 1159 29.60% 22.29% 48.11%-0.22 -3.0 17

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1963-08-22 14.43% Frigg Oslo 1229 3 @ Valerenga 1375 0
2 1963-10-06 15.61% Gjovik-Lyn 1149 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1278 1
3 1963-05-23 15.73% Sarpsborg 1165 1 @ Steinkjer 1293 0
4 1963-05-05 15.78% Viking 1220 2 @ Valerenga 1347 1
5 1963-05-23 16.88% Lyn Oslo 1249 2 @ Valerenga 1361 1
6 1963-05-23 18.26% Gjovik-Lyn 1188 2 @ Fredrikstad 1283 1
7 1963-05-26 18.30% Lyn Oslo 1254 6 @ Brann 1349 0
8 1963-08-18 20.69% Viking 1217 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1285 0
9 1963-10-04 21.23% Skeid 1297 6 @ Valerenga 1358 1
10 1963-06-24 23.88% Brann 1335 4 @ Valerenga 1370 2
11 1963-04-28 25.24% @ Sarpsborg 1161 1 Valerenga 1352 0
12 1963-09-07 25.79% Frigg Oslo 1246 3 @ Steinkjer 1264 1
13 1963-08-04 26.09% Fredrikstad 1274 1 @ Skeid 1289 0
14 1963-08-21 28.52% Lyn Oslo 1274 2 @ Steinkjer 1268 1
15 1963-10-13 29.49% Lyn Oslo 1268 3 @ Frigg Oslo 1254 0
16 1963-04-28 29.50% @ Gjovik-Lyn 1195 2 Brann 1348 0
17 1963-05-12 30.13% Lyn Oslo 1245 3 @ Viking 1226 2
18 1963-06-09 31.40% Brann 1315 3 @ Steinkjer 1287 0
19 1963-08-06 32.45% @ Frigg Oslo 1215 4 Brann 1345 3
20 1963-08-18 32.70% Frigg Oslo 1219 4 @ Gjovik-Lyn 1180 1
21 1963-05-12 32.78% @ Sarpsborg 1162 3 Fredrikstad 1289 1
22 1963-10-06 32.83% Fredrikstad 1290 1 @ Steinkjer 1250 0
23 1963-08-02 33.08% @ Sarpsborg 1168 2 Lyn Oslo 1293 0
24 1963-09-07 34.11% Brann 1345 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1296 1
25 1963-04-28 34.31% Steinkjer 1278 3 @ Viking 1227 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-05-26 30.31 Lyn Oslo 6 1254 18.30% @ Brann 0 1349 60.60% 21.10%
2 1963-05-19 23.02 Valerenga 7 1338 40.62% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1243 37.09% 22.29%
3 1963-10-04 20.03 Skeid 6 1297 21.23% @ Valerenga 1 1358 57.18% 21.59%
4 1963-09-22 17.73 Valerenga 7 1341 51.38% @ Gjovik-Lyn 0 1166 27.06% 21.56%
5 1963-08-25 17.22 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1279 39.25% Valerenga 0 1358 38.40% 22.35%
6 1963-08-22 17.01 Frigg Oslo 3 1229 14.43% @ Valerenga 0 1375 65.45% 20.12%
7 1963-10-13 12.90 Lyn Oslo 3 1268 29.49% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1254 48.23% 22.28%
8 1963-06-09 12.45 Brann 3 1315 31.40% @ Steinkjer 0 1287 46.26% 22.35%
9 1963-09-22 11.20 @ Fredrikstad 4 1278 48.64% Lyn Oslo 0 1289 29.09% 22.27%
10 1963-05-04 10.69 @ Brann 8 1339 59.99% Frigg Oslo 1 1251 18.82% 21.20%
11 1963-08-18 10.45 Viking 2 1217 20.69% @ Lyn Oslo 0 1285 57.80% 21.51%
12 1963-08-18 10.24 Frigg Oslo 4 1219 32.70% @ Gjovik-Lyn 1 1180 44.93% 22.37%
13 1963-05-26 10.06 @ Gjovik-Lyn 5 1193 45.73% Viking 1 1226 31.91% 22.36%
14 1963-10-06 9.93 Gjovik-Lyn 3 1149 15.61% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1278 63.92% 20.47%
15 1963-06-16 9.32 @ Frigg Oslo 5 1210 48.72% Viking 1 1220 29.02% 22.26%
16 1963-06-23 9.27 @ Sarpsborg 3 1165 45.64% Gjovik-Lyn 0 1198 32.00% 22.36%
17 1963-05-19 8.95 Skeid 4 1285 39.63% @ Gjovik-Lyn 1 1197 38.05% 22.32%
18 1963-04-28 8.92 @ Gjovik-Lyn 2 1195 29.50% Brann 0 1348 48.69% 21.82%
19 1963-08-02 8.32 @ Sarpsborg 2 1168 33.08% Lyn Oslo 0 1293 44.82% 22.10%
20 1963-09-07 8.24 Frigg Oslo 3 1246 25.79% @ Steinkjer 1 1264 52.14% 22.07%
21 1963-06-24 7.63 Brann 4 1335 23.88% @ Valerenga 2 1370 54.22% 21.90%
22 1963-08-17 7.55 @ Valerenga 4 1368 60.36% Steinkjer 0 1276 18.50% 21.14%
23 1963-05-12 7.25 @ Sarpsborg 3 1162 32.78% Fredrikstad 1 1289 45.14% 22.08%
24 1963-09-07 7.05 Brann 3 1345 34.11% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1296 43.51% 22.39%
25 1963-04-28 7.02 Steinkjer 3 1278 34.31% @ Viking 1 1227 43.30% 22.39%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-08-18 61.8 @ Fredrikstad 3 1279 61.38% Sarpsborg 3 1177 17.66% 20.96%
2 1963-05-19 61.7 @ Lyn Oslo 3 1249 44.27% Steinkjer 3 1292 33.35% 22.38%
3 1963-08-25 61.7 @ Frigg Oslo 3 1246 44.91% Skeid 3 1285 32.72% 22.37%
4 1963-09-08 57.7 @ Valerenga 2 1341 57.38% Fredrikstad 2 1278 21.06% 21.56%
5 1963-08-04 57.3 @ Viking 2 1215 29.47% Valerenga 2 1368 48.71% 21.81%
6 1963-06-23 57.1 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1291 58.24% Frigg Oslo 2 1219 20.31% 21.45%
7 1963-07-28 57.0 @ Steinkjer 2 1273 56.88% Viking 2 1214 21.50% 21.62%
8 1963-09-20 56.9 @ Frigg Oslo 2 1254 59.40% Sarpsborg 2 1172 19.32% 21.29%
9 1963-08-25 56.7 @ Gjovik-Lyn 2 1166 34.81% Fredrikstad 2 1278 42.99% 22.20%
10 1963-08-06 56.6 @ Frigg Oslo 4 1215 32.45% Brann 3 1345 45.49% 22.06%
11 1963-06-24 54.5 Brann 4 1335 23.88% @ Valerenga 2 1370 54.22% 21.90%
12 1963-05-12 53.2 Lyn Oslo 3 1245 30.13% @ Viking 2 1226 47.56% 22.31%
13 1963-05-19 52.7 @ Brann 1 1350 57.86% Fredrikstad 1 1282 20.64% 21.50%
14 1963-05-05 52.6 Viking 2 1220 15.78% @ Valerenga 1 1347 63.70% 20.51%
15 1963-05-23 52.5 Lyn Oslo 2 1249 16.88% @ Valerenga 1 1361 62.33% 20.79%
16 1963-08-21 52.3 @ Fredrikstad 1 1278 41.30% Brann 1 1343 36.32% 22.38%
17 1963-05-22 52.1 @ Viking 1 1226 33.30% Brann 1 1349 44.59% 22.11%
18 1963-10-06 52.1 @ Sarpsborg 1 1173 25.84% Brann 1 1358 52.77% 21.40%
19 1963-04-26 52.0 @ Skeid 1 1289 55.79% Lyn Oslo 1 1240 22.46% 21.75%
20 1963-04-28 51.8 @ Frigg Oslo 1 1251 45.46% Fredrikstad 1 1286 32.17% 22.36%
21 1963-05-26 51.7 @ Frigg Oslo 1 1213 40.18% Steinkjer 1 1286 37.45% 22.37%
22 1963-08-21 51.6 @ Viking 1 1228 55.97% Sarpsborg 1 1177 22.30% 21.73%
23 1963-05-23 51.5 Gjovik-Lyn 2 1188 18.26% @ Fredrikstad 1 1283 60.66% 21.09%
24 1963-08-25 51.5 @ Sarpsborg 1 1178 38.36% Steinkjer 1 1264 39.31% 22.33%
25 1963-06-15 50.5 Lyn Oslo 3 1287 39.22% @ Gjovik-Lyn 2 1202 38.44% 22.33%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1963-07-29 27.3 @ Valerenga 5 1362 68.93% Sarpsborg 0 1174 11.89% 19.18%
2 1963-08-17 30.5 @ Valerenga 4 1368 60.36% Steinkjer 0 1276 18.50% 21.14%
3 1963-09-22 30.8 @ Brann 3 1352 60.83% Steinkjer 0 1256 18.12% 21.06%
4 1963-05-22 31.0 @ Skeid 3 1294 58.53% Frigg Oslo 0 1220 20.06% 21.41%
5 1963-06-15 31.2 @ Brann 7 1328 66.30% Sarpsborg 1 1172 13.79% 19.91%
6 1963-05-03 32.5 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1240 58.53% Sarpsborg 0 1166 20.06% 21.41%
7 1963-05-05 32.5 @ Steinkjer 2 1285 59.29% Gjovik-Lyn 0 1203 19.41% 21.30%
8 1963-05-04 33.2 @ Brann 8 1339 59.99% Frigg Oslo 1 1251 18.82% 21.20%
9 1963-09-22 33.4 @ Fredrikstad 4 1278 48.64% Lyn Oslo 0 1289 29.09% 22.27%
10 1963-07-28 33.5 @ Fredrikstad 2 1269 55.79% Frigg Oslo 0 1220 22.46% 21.75%
11 1963-09-22 33.6 Valerenga 7 1341 51.38% @ Gjovik-Lyn 0 1166 27.06% 21.56%
12 1963-06-23 34.5 @ Sarpsborg 3 1165 45.64% Gjovik-Lyn 0 1198 32.00% 22.36%
13 1963-07-28 35.7 @ Brann 3 1342 66.06% Gjovik-Lyn 1 1189 13.97% 19.97%
14 1963-05-12 36.1 @ Frigg Oslo 1 1240 54.86% Gjovik-Lyn 0 1199 23.30% 21.84%
15 1963-10-13 36.3 @ Fredrikstad 4 1294 58.57% Viking 1 1220 20.02% 21.41%
16 1963-09-22 36.6 @ Skeid 4 1291 57.67% Viking 1 1225 20.80% 21.53%
17 1963-08-25 36.8 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1279 39.25% Valerenga 0 1358 38.40% 22.35%
18 1963-05-19 37.1 Valerenga 7 1338 40.62% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1243 37.09% 22.29%
19 1963-06-16 37.7 @ Frigg Oslo 5 1210 48.72% Viking 1 1220 29.02% 22.26%
20 1963-05-04 38.1 @ Fredrikstad 1 1286 49.73% Skeid 0 1288 28.05% 22.22%
21 1963-08-24 38.5 @ Brann 2 1343 62.74% Viking 1 1227 16.55% 20.71%
22 1963-05-26 38.6 @ Gjovik-Lyn 5 1193 45.73% Viking 1 1226 31.91% 22.36%
23 1963-08-21 38.8 @ Skeid 5 1281 62.25% Gjovik-Lyn 2 1170 16.95% 20.80%
24 1963-06-23 38.9 @ Steinkjer 1 1270 46.72% Skeid 0 1295 30.94% 22.33%
25 1963-06-09 39.6 Brann 3 1315 31.40% @ Steinkjer 0 1287 46.26% 22.35%