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1964 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Lyn Oslo

26 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Raufoss

10 pts

Brann · 12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Sarpsborg

5.40 points above expected

23 points · 17.60 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Brann

5.65 points below expected

12 points · 17.65 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo Champion 18 10 6 2 26 39 16 +23 21.39 +4.61
2 Fredrikstad 18 9 6 3 24 40 21 +19 19.20 +4.80
3 Sarpsborg 18 10 3 5 23 30 16 +14 17.60 +5.40
4 Frigg Oslo 18 6 8 4 20 28 29 -1 17.57 +2.43
5 Skeid 18 5 7 6 17 24 22 +2 18.42 -1.42
6 Valerenga 18 6 5 7 17 18 21 -3 19.79 -2.79
7 Sandefjord 18 6 5 7 17 17 23 -6 18.40 -1.40
8 Viking 18 5 4 9 14 22 37 -15 15.42 -1.42
9 Brann Relegated 18 3 6 9 12 17 32 -15 17.65 -5.65
10 Raufoss Relegated 18 3 4 11 10 22 40 -18 14.56 -4.56

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sarpsborg 23 17.60 +5.40
2 Fredrikstad 24 19.20 +4.80
3 Lyn Oslo 26 21.39 +4.61
4 Frigg Oslo 20 17.57 +2.43
5 Sandefjord 17 18.40 -1.40

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brann 12 17.65 -5.65
2 Raufoss 10 14.56 -4.56
3 Valerenga 17 19.79 -2.79
4 Skeid 17 18.42 -1.42
5 Viking 14 15.42 -1.42

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 6 May 3 – Jun 7 1 in 332
2 Sarpsborg 5 Jun 12 – Aug 12 1 in 141
3 Fredrikstad 3 Sep 13 – Oct 4 1 in 17
4 Raufoss 1 Jun 8 – Jun 8 1 in 9
5 Frigg Oslo 2 Jul 28 – Aug 9 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Raufoss 6 Apr 26 – May 30 1 in 183
2 Skeid 2 Jun 8 – Jun 12 1 in 19
3 Sandefjord 2 Jun 13 – Jun 20 1 in 12
4 Viking 3 Jun 21 – Aug 9 1 in 11
5 Brann 3 Jul 26 – Aug 13 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 11 Apr 26 – Aug 8 1 in 48
2 Frigg Oslo 6 May 29 – Aug 9 1 in 18
3 Fredrikstad 7 Aug 12 – Oct 4 1 in 17
4 Sarpsborg 5 Jun 12 – Aug 12 1 in 6
5 Raufoss 3 Jun 8 – Jun 21 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 8 May 3 – Jun 19 1 in 62
2 Brann 7 May 31 – Aug 13 1 in 11
3 Frigg Oslo 6 May 19 – Jun 19 1 in 8
4 Lyn Oslo 3 Sep 13 – Oct 4 1 in 7
5 Sandefjord 4 Jun 7 – Jul 26 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Lyn Oslo 1263 26 -2 6 6.4 -0.4
Fredrikstad 1226 24 +52 8 5.7 +2.3
Sarpsborg 1182 23 +6 6 5.6 +0.4
Frigg Oslo 1117 20 +0 6 5.0 +1.0
Skeid 1151 17 +5 5 5.4 -0.4
Sandefjord 1101 17 -3 5 5.0 +0.0
Valerenga 1135 17 -37 3 4.8 -1.8
Viking 1070 14 +4 5 4.1 +0.9
Brann 1075 12 -1 4 5.0 -1.0
Raufoss 1032 10 -22 2 3.1 -1.1

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE FO LO RAU SAN SAR SKE VAL VIK
Brann —
0-0-2
2.69
0-2-0
2.77
0-0-2
2.27
0-1-1
3.19
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.42
0-2-0
2.41
1-0-1
2.85
Fredrikstad
2-0-0
2.69
 —
0-2-0
3.08
1-0-1
2.45
1-1-0
3.50
1-1-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.82
0-2-0
2.74
1-0-1
2.83
2-0-0
3.32
Frigg Oslo
0-2-0
2.59
0-2-0
2.30
 —
0-1-1
2.22
2-0-0
2.95
0-1-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
2.41
1-0-1
2.28
1-1-0
2.94
Lyn Oslo
2-0-0
3.10
1-0-1
2.94
1-1-0
3.18
 —
2-0-0
3.92
0-2-0
3.02
1-1-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.30
0-1-1
3.28
1-1-0
3.82
Raufoss
1-1-0
2.18
0-1-1
1.90
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-2
1.52
 —
1-0-1
2.13
0-0-2
2.20
1-0-1
1.99
0-1-1
2.04
0-1-1
2.54
Sandefjord
1-0-1
2.88
0-1-1
2.40
1-1-0
2.83
0-2-0
2.37
1-0-1
3.25
 —
0-0-2
2.54
1-1-0
2.55
2-0-0
2.36
0-0-2
3.17
Sarpsborg
1-0-1
3.02
1-0-1
2.56
1-0-1
2.83
0-1-1
2.00
2-0-0
3.20
2-0-0
2.84
 —
1-1-0
2.69
0-1-1
2.56
2-0-0
2.84
Skeid
1-1-0
2.96
0-2-0
2.64
0-1-1
2.97
0-0-2
2.07
1-0-1
3.41
0-1-1
2.82
0-1-1
2.68
 —
2-0-0
2.49
1-1-0
3.18
Valerenga
0-2-0
2.97
1-0-1
2.53
1-0-1
3.10
1-1-0
2.12
1-1-0
3.35
0-0-2
3.01
1-1-0
2.81
0-0-2
2.88
 —
1-0-1
3.29
Viking
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.06
0-1-1
2.44
0-1-1
1.59
1-1-0
2.84
2-0-0
2.21
0-0-2
2.53
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
2.09
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.69 +5.2
Allowed 0.71 -5.3
Differential 0.94 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%7.78%5.56%1.67%1.67%1.67%29.44%
17.78%12.22%5.56%4.44%2.22%1.11%33.33%
25.56%5.56%4.44%2.22%0.56%—18.33%
31.67%4.44%2.22%1.11%0.56%—10.00%
41.67%2.22%0.56%0.56%1.11%—6.11%
5+1.67%1.11%————2.78%
Total29.44%33.33%18.33%10.00%6.11%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.43 1.43 +0.00
SD 1.48 1.48 2.15
CV 1.03 1.03 —
Max 9 9 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%22.22%5.56%—11.11%5.56%61.11%
1—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%11.11%5.56%16.67%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.78 -0.83
SD 1.47 1.93 2.64
CV 1.56 1.08 —
Max 5 7 +5
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
1—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
211.11%16.67%5.56%———33.33%
35.56%—————5.56%
45.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%44.44%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.17 +1.06
SD 2.13 1.10 2.34
CV 0.96 0.94 —
Max 9 4 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%——5.56%22.22%
1—22.22%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%16.67%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.61 -0.06
SD 1.20 1.46 1.95
CV 0.77 0.91 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
211.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+11.11%—————11.11%
Total44.44%27.78%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 0.89 +1.28
SD 1.86 0.96 2.16
CV 0.86 1.08 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
15.56%5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%50.00%
2———5.56%——5.56%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%22.22%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.22 -1.00
SD 1.26 2.16 2.43
CV 1.03 0.97 —
Max 4 9 +3
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
116.67%16.67%11.11%11.11%——55.56%
211.11%—————11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%16.67%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.28 -0.33
SD 0.80 1.32 1.75
CV 0.85 1.03 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%16.67%———38.89%
116.67%—5.56%———22.22%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%11.11%————16.67%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%27.78%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 0.89 +0.78
SD 1.88 0.83 2.05
CV 1.13 0.94 —
Max 6 2 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%————27.78%
15.56%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—38.89%
2——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
3—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%50.00%16.67%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.22 +0.11
SD 1.24 1.06 1.53
CV 0.93 0.87 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%——44.44%
15.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
25.56%11.11%—5.56%——22.22%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%11.11%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.17 -0.17
SD 1.08 1.04 1.38
CV 1.08 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—5.56%——5.56%16.67%
116.67%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%55.56%
25.56%—5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%22.22%5.56%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.06 -0.83
SD 0.88 1.89 2.07
CV 0.72 0.92 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lyn Oslo 1263 26 21.39 +4.61 96.0% 14 16 19 22 24 26 29
Fredrikstad 1226 24 19.20 +4.80 96.0% 13 14 17 19 22 24 26
Sarpsborg 1182 23 17.60 +5.40 97.0% 10 13 16 18 19 22 25
Skeid 1151 17 18.42 -1.42 37.0% 8 13 16 18 21 23 25
Valerenga 1135 17 19.79 -2.79 27.0% 11 14 17 19 22 25 30
Frigg Oslo 1117 20 17.57 +2.43 86.0% 11 12 16 18 20 22 25
Sandefjord 1101 17 18.40 -1.40 40.0% 10 13 16 18 21 23 25
Brann 1075 12 17.65 -5.65 5.0% 9 12 15 18 20 22 25
Viking 1070 14 15.42 -1.42 44.0% 10 11 13 16 17 20 22
Raufoss 1032 10 14.56 -4.56 9.0% 7 9 12 15 17 20 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+18.89%
Clear Edge
44.44%30.00%25.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge
184 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
066.42500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.36+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
4.3
Open
134610
Champion Preseason Odds
41%
Lyn Oslo, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.55 * Some Luck: 2.55 to 3.82 * Lucky: 3.82 to 5.09 * Wild Swing: 5.09 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.79 * Close: 1.79 to 2.68 * Off: 2.68 to 3.58 * Way Off: 3.58 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.92 * A Surprise: 0.92 to 1.47 * Several Surprises: 1.47 to 2.02 * Many Surprises: 2.02 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.82 points
Lucky
03.188
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.00
Close
02.245
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
Sarpsborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Brann
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Even
00.140.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 72.19
1.48
Moderate Separation
0.91.351.551.752.5
Interquartile Edge
63%
Slight Edge
50%61.5%69.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Even
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
62%
Very Frequent
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.36
Notable Separation
00.320.380.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.49
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
0.09
Weak Carryover
00.280.481
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%22%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.82
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.86
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.050
Well Within Noise
00.1680.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Lyn Oslo41.00%15.00%10.00%14.00%5.00%4.00%7.00%2.00%2.00%—
Fredrikstad13.00%21.00%14.00%6.00%8.00%8.00%13.00%8.00%7.00%2.00%
Sarpsborg3.00%9.00%8.00%11.00%17.00%15.00%10.00%12.00%10.00%5.00%
Frigg Oslo3.00%7.00%11.00%14.00%17.00%7.00%9.00%13.00%8.00%11.00%
Skeid7.00%14.00%12.00%14.00%9.00%11.00%11.00%9.00%5.00%8.00%
Valerenga18.00%15.00%13.00%7.00%9.00%12.00%12.00%5.00%6.00%3.00%
Sandefjord8.00%9.00%14.00%13.00%5.00%17.00%12.00%16.00%3.00%3.00%
Viking1.00%2.00%6.00%4.00%6.00%7.00%10.00%16.00%28.00%20.00%
Brann4.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%18.00%9.00%10.00%13.00%9.00%10.00%
Raufoss2.00%—3.00%7.00%6.00%10.00%6.00%6.00%22.00%38.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo 98.00% 2.00%
Sandefjord 94.00% 6.00%
Fredrikstad 91.00% 9.00%
Valerenga 91.00% 9.00%
Skeid 87.00% 13.00%
Sarpsborg 85.00% 15.00%
Brann 81.00% 19.00%
Frigg Oslo 81.00% 19.00%
Viking 52.00% 48.00%
Raufoss 40.00% 60.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1964-04-24 Skeid L 0-146.8 1168 1159 48.08% 31.29% 20.63%+0.41 -9.5 0
1964-04-24 @ Valerenga W 1-046.8 1159 1168 20.63% 31.29% 48.08%-0.41 +9.5 2
1964-04-26 Fredrikstad L 0-244.4 1162 1149 48.51% 31.23% 20.26%+0.43 -18.0 0
1964-04-26 @ Brann W 2-044.4 1149 1162 20.26% 31.23% 48.51%-0.43 +18.0 2
1964-04-26 Raufoss W 2-142.0 1128 1083 52.01% 30.67% 17.31%+0.61 +4.2 2
1964-04-26 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-242.0 1083 1128 17.31% 30.67% 52.01%-0.61 -4.2 0
1964-04-26 Lyn Oslo D 1-150.0 1132 1138 46.27% 31.48% 22.25%+0.33 -1.0 1
1964-04-26 @ Sandefjord D 1-150.0 1138 1132 22.25% 31.48% 46.27%-0.33 +1.0 1
1964-04-26 Viking W 4-139.4 1111 1122 45.71% 31.53% 22.76%+0.30 +12.6 2
1964-04-26 @ Sarpsborg L 1-439.4 1122 1111 22.76% 31.53% 45.71%-0.30 -12.6 0
1964-05-02 Sarpsborg W 2-142.1 1167 1123 51.82% 30.71% 17.47%+0.60 +4.2 4
1964-05-02 @ Fredrikstad L 1-242.1 1123 1167 17.47% 30.71% 51.82%-0.60 -4.2 2
1964-05-03 Brann W 4-139.2 1139 1144 46.52% 31.46% 22.03%+0.34 +12.3 3
1964-05-03 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-439.2 1144 1139 22.03% 31.46% 46.52%-0.34 -12.3 0
1964-05-03 Valerenga L 1-248.2 1079 1158 36.94% 31.80% 31.26%-0.07 -7.2 0
1964-05-03 @ Raufoss W 2-148.2 1158 1079 31.26% 31.80% 36.94%+0.07 +7.2 2
1964-05-03 Sandefjord D 0-046.2 1168 1131 51.19% 30.82% 17.99%+0.57 -1.6 3
1964-05-03 @ Skeid D 0-046.2 1131 1168 17.99% 30.82% 51.19%-0.57 +1.6 2
1964-05-03 Frigg Oslo D 1-149.9 1109 1133 44.23% 31.64% 24.13%+0.23 -0.8 1
1964-05-03 @ Viking D 1-149.9 1133 1109 24.13% 31.64% 44.23%-0.23 +0.8 3
1964-05-10 Skeid D 2-254.8 1131 1167 42.75% 31.72% 25.53%+0.17 -0.5 1
1964-05-10 @ Brann D 2-254.8 1167 1131 25.53% 31.72% 42.75%-0.17 +0.5 4
1964-05-10 Lyn Oslo L 0-244.6 1171 1151 49.23% 31.14% 19.64%+0.47 -18.2 4
1964-05-10 @ Fredrikstad W 2-044.6 1151 1171 19.64% 31.14% 49.23%-0.47 +18.2 5
1964-05-10 Raufoss W 3-139.2 1132 1072 53.55% 30.35% 16.09%+0.69 +6.8 4
1964-05-10 @ Sandefjord L 1-339.2 1072 1132 16.09% 30.35% 53.55%-0.69 -6.8 0
1964-05-10 Viking W 2-141.6 1166 1108 53.23% 30.42% 16.34%+0.67 +4.0 4
1964-05-10 @ Valerenga L 1-241.6 1108 1166 16.34% 30.42% 53.23%-0.67 -4.0 1
1964-05-11 Sarpsborg W 2-035.8 1133 1119 48.68% 31.21% 20.11%+0.44 +9.4 5
1964-05-11 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-235.8 1119 1133 20.11% 31.21% 48.68%-0.44 -9.4 2
1964-05-15 Valerenga D 0-045.9 1110 1170 39.56% 31.81% 28.63%+0.03 -0.5 3
1964-05-15 @ Sarpsborg D 0-045.9 1170 1110 28.63% 31.81% 39.56%-0.03 +0.5 5
1964-05-15 Fredrikstad D 1-150.1 1167 1153 48.69% 31.21% 20.10%+0.44 -1.2 5
1964-05-15 @ Skeid D 1-150.1 1153 1167 20.10% 31.21% 48.69%-0.44 +1.2 5
1964-05-16 Brann W 1-038.5 1139 1131 47.98% 31.30% 20.72%+0.41 +5.1 6
1964-05-16 @ Sandefjord L 0-138.5 1131 1139 20.72% 31.30% 47.98%-0.41 -5.1 1
1964-05-16 Raufoss W 1-037.5 1104 1065 51.39% 30.79% 17.82%+0.58 +4.5 3
1964-05-16 @ Viking L 0-137.5 1065 1104 17.82% 30.79% 51.39%-0.58 -4.5 0
1964-05-19 Lyn Oslo L 0-640.9 1143 1170 43.81% 31.67% 24.52%+0.22 -46.0 5
1964-05-19 @ Frigg Oslo W 6-040.9 1170 1143 24.52% 31.67% 43.81%-0.22 +46.0 7
1964-05-22 Frigg Oslo W 3-138.8 1170 1097 54.80% 30.06% 15.14%+0.76 +6.4 7
1964-05-22 @ Valerenga L 1-338.8 1097 1170 15.14% 30.06% 54.80%-0.76 -6.4 5
1964-05-23 Viking W 5-033.1 1126 1109 48.94% 31.18% 19.89%+0.45 +21.7 3
1964-05-23 @ Brann L 0-533.1 1109 1126 19.89% 31.18% 48.94%-0.45 -21.7 3
1964-05-24 Sandefjord W 2-143.2 1154 1144 48.14% 31.28% 20.58%+0.41 +4.8 7
1964-05-24 @ Fredrikstad L 1-243.2 1144 1154 20.58% 31.28% 48.14%-0.41 -4.8 6
1964-05-24 Skeid W 3-246.5 1216 1166 52.46% 30.59% 16.96%+0.63 +3.9 9
1964-05-24 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-346.5 1166 1216 16.96% 30.59% 52.46%-0.63 -3.9 5
1964-05-24 Sarpsborg L 1-445.0 1060 1109 41.05% 31.78% 27.17%+0.10 -19.2 0
1964-05-24 @ Raufoss W 4-145.0 1109 1060 27.17% 31.78% 41.05%-0.10 +19.2 5
1964-05-29 Fredrikstad D 1-149.9 1090 1159 38.48% 31.81% 29.70%-0.01 -0.3 6
1964-05-29 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-149.9 1159 1090 29.70% 31.81% 38.48%+0.01 +0.3 8
1964-05-30 Lyn Oslo L 0-236.9 1041 1220 24.28% 30.67% 45.05%-0.61 -10.7 0
1964-05-30 @ Raufoss W 2-036.9 1220 1041 45.05% 30.67% 24.28%+0.61 +10.7 11
1964-05-30 Skeid D 1-149.9 1087 1162 37.57% 31.81% 30.63%-0.05 -0.3 4
1964-05-30 @ Viking D 1-149.9 1162 1087 30.63% 31.81% 37.57%+0.05 +0.3 6
1964-05-31 Brann W 1-039.5 1128 1147 44.77% 31.60% 23.62%+0.26 +5.6 7
1964-05-31 @ Sarpsborg L 0-139.5 1147 1128 23.62% 31.60% 44.77%-0.26 -5.6 3
1964-05-31 Sandefjord L 0-147.6 1177 1139 51.15% 30.83% 18.01%+0.56 -10.0 7
1964-05-31 @ Valerenga W 1-047.6 1139 1177 18.01% 30.83% 51.15%-0.56 +10.0 8
1964-06-06 Viking W 4-242.6 1159 1087 54.68% 30.09% 15.23%+0.75 +5.8 10
1964-06-06 @ Fredrikstad L 2-442.6 1087 1159 15.23% 30.09% 54.68%-0.75 -5.8 4
1964-06-07 Sarpsborg W 1-035.9 1230 1134 56.96% 29.46% 13.57%+0.89 +3.5 13
1964-06-07 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-135.9 1134 1230 13.57% 29.46% 56.96%-0.89 -3.6 7
1964-06-07 Frigg Oslo D 1-150.3 1149 1090 53.42% 30.38% 16.20%+0.68 -1.6 9
1964-06-07 @ Sandefjord D 1-150.3 1090 1149 16.20% 30.38% 53.42%-0.68 +1.6 7
1964-06-08 Raufoss L 1-449.7 1162 1030 60.10% 28.41% 11.49%+1.08 -26.6 6
1964-06-08 @ Skeid W 4-149.7 1030 1162 11.49% 28.41% 60.10%-1.08 +26.6 2
1964-06-09 Valerenga D 1-150.0 1142 1167 44.07% 31.65% 24.28%+0.23 -0.8 4
1964-06-09 @ Brann D 1-150.0 1167 1142 24.28% 31.65% 44.07%-0.23 +0.8 8
1964-06-12 Skeid W 1-039.0 1130 1136 46.41% 31.47% 22.13%+0.33 +5.3 9
1964-06-12 @ Sarpsborg L 0-139.0 1136 1130 22.13% 31.47% 46.41%-0.33 -5.3 6
1964-06-12 Lyn Oslo D 0-046.0 1167 1234 38.71% 31.81% 29.48%+0.00 -0.4 9
1964-06-12 @ Valerenga D 0-046.0 1234 1167 29.48% 31.81% 38.71%+0.00 +0.4 14
1964-06-13 Sandefjord W 2-038.8 1081 1148 38.69% 31.81% 29.50%+0.00 +12.4 6
1964-06-13 @ Viking L 0-238.8 1148 1081 29.50% 31.81% 38.69%+0.00 -12.4 9
1964-06-14 Brann D 0-045.9 1092 1141 40.98% 31.79% 27.24%+0.09 -0.6 8
1964-06-14 @ Frigg Oslo D 0-045.9 1141 1092 27.24% 31.79% 40.98%-0.09 +0.6 5
1964-06-14 Fredrikstad D 4-460.6 1057 1165 33.03% 31.66% 35.31%-0.22 +0.1 3
1964-06-14 @ Raufoss D 4-460.6 1165 1057 35.31% 31.66% 33.03%+0.22 -0.0 11
1964-06-19 Frigg Oslo D 1-150.2 1130 1091 51.38% 30.79% 17.83%+0.58 -1.4 7
1964-06-19 @ Skeid D 1-150.2 1091 1130 17.83% 30.79% 51.38%-0.58 +1.4 9
1964-06-20 Valerenga L 0-146.4 1165 1167 46.76% 31.43% 21.80%+0.35 -9.3 11
1964-06-20 @ Fredrikstad W 1-046.4 1167 1165 21.80% 31.43% 46.76%-0.35 +9.3 11
1964-06-20 Sarpsborg L 1-251.1 1135 1136 46.98% 31.41% 21.61%+0.36 -8.8 9
1964-06-20 @ Sandefjord W 2-151.1 1136 1135 21.61% 31.41% 46.98%-0.36 +8.8 11
1964-06-21 Viking W 2-139.4 1234 1094 60.84% 28.12% 11.04%+1.13 +2.8 16
1964-06-21 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-239.4 1094 1234 11.04% 28.12% 60.84%-1.13 -2.8 6
1964-06-21 Brann D 0-045.9 1057 1142 36.26% 31.78% 31.96%-0.10 -0.2 4
1964-06-21 @ Raufoss D 0-045.9 1142 1057 31.96% 31.78% 36.26%+0.10 +0.2 6
1964-07-26 Brann W 4-033.3 1155 1142 48.58% 31.22% 20.19%+0.44 +17.8 13
1964-07-26 @ Fredrikstad L 0-433.3 1142 1155 20.19% 31.22% 48.58%-0.44 -17.8 6
1964-07-26 Sandefjord D 1-150.8 1237 1127 58.24% 29.06% 12.70%+0.96 -2.0 17
1964-07-26 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-150.8 1127 1237 12.70% 29.06% 58.24%-0.96 +2.0 10
1964-07-26 Sarpsborg L 1-642.3 1091 1145 40.39% 31.80% 27.81%+0.07 -30.0 6
1964-07-26 @ Viking W 6-142.3 1145 1091 27.81% 31.80% 40.39%-0.07 +30.0 13
1964-07-28 Frigg Oslo L 0-340.9 1057 1093 42.72% 31.72% 25.55%+0.17 -23.6 4
1964-07-28 @ Raufoss W 3-040.9 1093 1057 25.55% 31.72% 42.72%-0.17 +23.5 11
1964-07-28 Valerenga W 3-249.8 1129 1176 41.24% 31.78% 26.98%+0.10 +5.5 9
1964-07-28 @ Skeid L 2-349.8 1176 1129 26.98% 31.78% 41.24%-0.10 -5.5 11
1964-08-08 Lyn Oslo L 0-738.0 1124 1235 32.57% 31.63% 35.80%-0.24 -42.7 6
1964-08-08 @ Brann W 7-038.0 1235 1124 35.80% 31.63% 32.57%+0.24 +42.7 19
1964-08-08 Skeid W 1-039.0 1129 1135 46.33% 31.47% 22.19%+0.33 +5.4 12
1964-08-08 @ Sandefjord L 0-139.0 1135 1129 22.19% 31.47% 46.33%-0.33 -5.4 9
1964-08-08 Fredrikstad W 3-141.2 1175 1173 47.19% 31.39% 21.42%+0.37 +8.5 15
1964-08-08 @ Sarpsborg L 1-341.2 1173 1175 21.42% 31.39% 47.19%-0.37 -8.5 13
1964-08-08 Raufoss D 1-151.0 1171 1033 60.56% 28.23% 11.21%+1.11 -2.2 12
1964-08-08 @ Valerenga D 1-151.0 1033 1171 11.21% 28.23% 60.56%-1.11 +2.2 5
1964-08-09 Viking W 4-349.0 1116 1061 53.03% 30.47% 16.50%+0.66 +3.7 13
1964-08-09 @ Frigg Oslo L 3-449.0 1061 1116 16.50% 30.47% 53.03%-0.66 -3.7 6
1964-08-12 Fredrikstad L 1-254.0 1278 1165 58.46% 28.99% 12.55%+0.98 -10.6 19
1964-08-12 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-154.0 1165 1278 12.55% 28.99% 58.46%-0.98 +10.6 15
1964-08-12 Sandefjord W 3-038.3 1036 1134 34.33% 31.72% 33.95%-0.17 +19.8 7
1964-08-12 @ Raufoss L 0-338.3 1134 1036 33.95% 31.72% 34.33%+0.17 -19.9 12
1964-08-12 Frigg Oslo W 1-036.8 1183 1120 53.83% 30.29% 15.88%+0.71 +4.1 17
1964-08-12 @ Sarpsborg L 0-136.8 1120 1183 15.88% 30.29% 53.83%-0.71 -4.1 13
1964-08-12 Valerenga W 1-043.2 1057 1168 32.51% 31.63% 35.86%-0.24 +7.5 8
1964-08-12 @ Viking L 0-143.2 1168 1057 35.86% 31.63% 32.51%+0.24 -7.5 12
1964-08-13 Brann W 4-032.1 1129 1081 52.27% 30.62% 17.11%+0.62 +15.6 11
1964-08-13 @ Skeid L 0-432.1 1081 1129 17.11% 30.62% 52.27%-0.62 -15.6 6
1964-08-15 Sarpsborg W 2-037.3 1161 1187 43.89% 31.66% 24.45%+0.22 +10.9 14
1964-08-15 @ Valerenga L 0-237.3 1187 1161 24.45% 31.66% 43.89%-0.22 -10.9 17
1964-08-16 Sandefjord W 3-142.9 1066 1114 41.09% 31.78% 27.13%+0.10 +10.1 8
1964-08-16 @ Brann L 1-342.9 1114 1066 27.13% 31.78% 41.09%-0.10 -10.1 12
1964-08-16 Skeid D 1-150.2 1175 1145 50.44% 30.95% 18.61%+0.53 -1.3 16
1964-08-16 @ Fredrikstad D 1-150.2 1145 1175 18.61% 30.95% 50.44%-0.53 +1.3 12
1964-08-16 Frigg Oslo D 2-256.1 1267 1116 61.72% 27.77% 10.51%+1.18 -1.7 20
1964-08-16 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-256.1 1116 1267 10.51% 27.77% 61.72%-1.18 +1.7 14
1964-08-16 Viking D 0-045.9 1055 1065 45.96% 31.51% 22.53%+0.31 -1.1 8
1964-08-16 @ Raufoss D 0-045.9 1065 1055 22.53% 31.51% 45.96%-0.31 +1.1 9
1964-08-28 Lyn Oslo L 0-142.0 1146 1265 31.47% 31.56% 36.97%-0.29 -6.9 12
1964-08-28 @ Skeid W 1-042.0 1265 1146 36.97% 31.56% 31.47%+0.29 +6.9 22
1964-08-29 Fredrikstad D 0-045.9 1104 1174 38.23% 31.81% 29.95%-0.02 -0.4 13
1964-08-29 @ Sandefjord D 0-045.9 1174 1104 29.95% 31.81% 38.23%+0.02 +0.3 17
1964-08-30 Valerenga W 3-143.2 1117 1172 40.31% 31.80% 27.89%+0.07 +10.3 16
1964-08-30 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-343.2 1172 1117 27.89% 31.80% 40.31%-0.07 -10.3 14
1964-08-30 Raufoss W 3-244.3 1176 1054 59.25% 28.72% 12.03%+1.03 +2.8 19
1964-08-30 @ Sarpsborg L 2-344.3 1054 1176 12.03% 28.72% 59.25%-1.03 -2.9 8
1964-09-01 Viking W 3-138.8 1139 1066 54.83% 30.05% 15.12%+0.76 +6.4 14
1964-09-01 @ Skeid L 1-338.8 1066 1139 15.12% 30.05% 54.83%-0.76 -6.4 9
1964-09-02 Sarpsborg W 2-040.3 1076 1179 33.62% 31.69% 34.69%-0.20 +13.9 10
1964-09-02 @ Brann L 0-240.3 1179 1076 34.69% 31.69% 33.62%+0.20 -13.9 19
1964-09-02 Frigg Oslo D 2-255.1 1174 1128 52.13% 30.65% 17.22%+0.61 -1.1 18
1964-09-02 @ Fredrikstad D 2-255.1 1128 1174 17.22% 30.65% 52.13%-0.61 +1.1 17
1964-09-02 Valerenga W 2-038.5 1104 1161 39.85% 31.81% 28.34%+0.05 +12.1 15
1964-09-02 @ Sandefjord L 0-238.5 1161 1104 28.34% 31.81% 39.85%-0.05 -12.1 14
1964-09-03 Raufoss W 2-137.5 1272 1052 67.07% 25.21% 7.72%+1.56 +1.9 24
1964-09-03 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-237.5 1052 1272 7.72% 25.21% 67.07%-1.56 -1.9 8
1964-09-09 Brann W 1-039.9 1059 1090 43.37% 31.69% 24.94%+0.20 +5.8 11
1964-09-09 @ Viking L 0-139.9 1090 1059 24.94% 31.69% 43.37%-0.20 -5.9 10
1964-09-11 Sandefjord L 0-244.3 1129 1116 48.54% 31.23% 20.23%+0.43 -18.0 17
1964-09-11 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-044.3 1116 1129 20.23% 31.23% 48.54%-0.43 +18.0 17
1964-09-13 Skeid L 1-345.2 1050 1146 34.66% 31.73% 33.61%-0.16 -12.0 8
1964-09-13 @ Raufoss W 3-145.2 1146 1050 33.61% 31.73% 34.66%+0.16 +12.0 16
1964-09-13 Lyn Oslo D 0-046.2 1165 1274 32.89% 31.65% 35.47%-0.23 +0.1 20
1964-09-13 @ Sarpsborg D 0-046.2 1274 1165 35.47% 31.65% 32.89%+0.23 -0.1 25
1964-09-13 Brann D 0-046.4 1149 1084 54.04% 30.24% 15.71%+0.72 -1.9 15
1964-09-13 @ Valerenga D 0-046.4 1084 1149 15.71% 30.24% 54.04%-0.72 +1.9 11
1964-09-13 Fredrikstad L 0-239.8 1065 1173 32.97% 31.65% 35.38%-0.23 -13.4 11
1964-09-13 @ Viking W 2-039.8 1173 1065 35.38% 31.65% 32.97%+0.23 +13.4 20
1964-09-27 Frigg Oslo D 3-358.5 1086 1111 44.02% 31.66% 24.32%+0.22 -0.5 12
1964-09-27 @ Brann D 3-358.5 1111 1086 24.32% 31.66% 44.02%-0.22 +0.5 18
1964-09-27 Raufoss W 9-131.5 1187 1038 61.53% 27.85% 10.63%+1.17 +15.9 22
1964-09-27 @ Fredrikstad L 1-931.5 1038 1187 10.63% 27.85% 61.53%-1.17 -15.9 8
1964-09-27 Valerenga L 2-358.7 1274 1148 59.63% 28.58% 11.79%+1.05 -10.2 25
1964-09-27 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-258.7 1148 1274 11.79% 28.58% 59.63%-1.05 +10.2 17
1964-09-27 Viking L 1-350.9 1134 1052 55.63% 29.84% 14.52%+0.81 -17.6 17
1964-09-27 @ Sandefjord W 3-150.9 1052 1134 14.52% 29.84% 55.63%-0.81 +17.6 13
1964-09-27 Sarpsborg D 0-046.0 1158 1165 46.12% 31.49% 22.38%+0.32 -1.1 17
1964-09-27 @ Skeid D 0-046.0 1165 1158 22.38% 31.49% 46.12%-0.32 +1.1 21
1964-10-02 Skeid W 2-145.1 1111 1157 41.50% 31.77% 26.73%+0.12 +5.8 20
1964-10-02 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-245.1 1157 1111 26.73% 31.77% 41.50%-0.12 -5.8 17
1964-10-04 Raufoss L 0-148.1 1085 1022 53.84% 30.29% 15.88%+0.71 -10.5 12
1964-10-04 @ Brann W 1-048.1 1022 1085 15.88% 30.29% 53.84%-0.71 +10.5 10
1964-10-04 Sandefjord W 4-032.1 1167 1116 52.53% 30.57% 16.90%+0.64 +15.4 23
1964-10-04 @ Sarpsborg L 0-432.1 1116 1167 16.90% 30.57% 52.53%-0.64 -15.4 17
1964-10-04 Fredrikstad L 0-340.7 1158 1202 41.56% 31.77% 26.67%+0.12 -23.0 17
1964-10-04 @ Valerenga W 3-040.7 1202 1158 26.67% 31.77% 41.56%-0.12 +23.0 24
1964-10-04 Lyn Oslo D 2-255.3 1069 1264 22.60% 30.33% 47.06%-0.70 +0.8 14
1964-10-04 @ Viking D 2-255.3 1264 1069 47.06% 30.33% 22.60%+0.70 -0.7 26

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1964-06-08 11.49% Raufoss 1030 4 @ Skeid 1162 1
2 1964-09-27 11.79% Valerenga 1148 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1274 2
3 1964-08-12 12.55% Fredrikstad 1165 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1278 1
4 1964-09-27 14.52% Viking 1052 3 @ Sandefjord 1134 1
5 1964-10-04 15.88% Raufoss 1022 1 @ Brann 1085 0
6 1964-05-31 18.01% Sandefjord 1139 1 @ Valerenga 1177 0
7 1964-05-10 19.64% Lyn Oslo 1151 2 @ Fredrikstad 1171 0
8 1964-09-11 20.23% Sandefjord 1116 2 @ Frigg Oslo 1129 0
9 1964-04-26 20.26% Fredrikstad 1149 2 @ Brann 1162 0
10 1964-04-24 20.63% Skeid 1159 1 @ Valerenga 1168 0
11 1964-06-20 21.61% Sarpsborg 1136 2 @ Sandefjord 1135 1
12 1964-06-20 21.80% Valerenga 1167 1 @ Fredrikstad 1165 0
13 1964-05-19 24.52% Lyn Oslo 1170 6 @ Frigg Oslo 1143 0
14 1964-07-28 25.55% Frigg Oslo 1093 3 @ Raufoss 1057 0
15 1964-10-04 26.67% Fredrikstad 1202 3 @ Valerenga 1158 0
16 1964-05-24 27.17% Sarpsborg 1109 4 @ Raufoss 1060 1
17 1964-07-26 27.81% Sarpsborg 1145 6 @ Viking 1091 1
18 1964-05-03 31.26% Valerenga 1158 2 @ Raufoss 1079 1
19 1964-08-12 32.51% @ Viking 1057 1 Valerenga 1168 0
20 1964-09-13 33.61% Skeid 1146 3 @ Raufoss 1050 1
21 1964-09-02 33.62% @ Brann 1076 2 Sarpsborg 1179 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1964-05-19 45.97 Lyn Oslo 6 1170 24.52% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1143 43.81% 31.67%
2 1964-08-08 42.66 Lyn Oslo 7 1235 35.80% @ Brann 0 1124 32.57% 31.63%
3 1964-07-26 30.05 Sarpsborg 6 1145 27.81% @ Viking 1 1091 40.39% 31.80%
4 1964-06-08 26.59 Raufoss 4 1030 11.49% @ Skeid 1 1162 60.10% 28.41%
5 1964-07-28 23.56 Frigg Oslo 3 1093 25.55% @ Raufoss 0 1057 42.72% 31.72%
6 1964-10-04 23.05 Fredrikstad 3 1202 26.67% @ Valerenga 0 1158 41.56% 31.77%
7 1964-05-23 21.72 @ Brann 5 1126 48.94% Viking 0 1109 19.89% 31.18%
8 1964-08-12 19.85 @ Raufoss 3 1036 34.33% Sandefjord 0 1134 33.95% 31.72%
9 1964-05-24 19.25 Sarpsborg 4 1109 27.17% @ Raufoss 1 1060 41.05% 31.78%
10 1964-05-10 18.24 Lyn Oslo 2 1151 19.64% @ Fredrikstad 0 1171 49.23% 31.14%
11 1964-09-11 18.02 Sandefjord 2 1116 20.23% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1129 48.54% 31.23%
12 1964-04-26 18.01 Fredrikstad 2 1149 20.26% @ Brann 0 1162 48.51% 31.23%
13 1964-07-26 17.83 @ Fredrikstad 4 1155 48.58% Brann 0 1142 20.19% 31.22%
14 1964-09-27 17.58 Viking 3 1052 14.52% @ Sandefjord 1 1134 55.63% 29.84%
15 1964-09-27 15.89 @ Fredrikstad 9 1187 61.53% Raufoss 1 1038 10.63% 27.85%
16 1964-08-13 15.60 @ Skeid 4 1129 52.27% Brann 0 1081 17.11% 30.62%
17 1964-10-04 15.44 @ Sarpsborg 4 1167 52.53% Sandefjord 0 1116 16.90% 30.57%
18 1964-09-02 13.87 @ Brann 2 1076 33.62% Sarpsborg 0 1179 34.69% 31.69%
19 1964-09-13 13.39 Fredrikstad 2 1173 35.38% @ Viking 0 1065 32.97% 31.65%
20 1964-04-26 12.62 @ Sarpsborg 4 1111 45.71% Viking 1 1122 22.76% 31.53%
21 1964-06-13 12.42 @ Viking 2 1081 38.69% Sandefjord 0 1148 29.50% 31.81%
22 1964-05-03 12.31 @ Lyn Oslo 4 1139 46.52% Brann 1 1144 22.03% 31.46%
23 1964-09-02 12.08 @ Sandefjord 2 1104 39.85% Valerenga 0 1161 28.34% 31.81%
24 1964-09-13 12.01 Skeid 3 1146 33.61% @ Raufoss 1 1050 34.66% 31.73%
25 1964-08-15 10.86 @ Valerenga 2 1161 43.89% Sarpsborg 0 1187 24.45% 31.66%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1964-06-14 60.6 @ Raufoss 4 1057 33.03% Fredrikstad 4 1165 35.31% 31.66%
2 1964-09-27 58.7 Valerenga 3 1148 11.79% @ Lyn Oslo 2 1274 59.63% 28.58%
3 1964-09-27 58.5 @ Brann 3 1086 44.02% Frigg Oslo 3 1111 24.32% 31.66%
4 1964-08-16 56.1 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1267 61.72% Frigg Oslo 2 1116 10.51% 27.77%
5 1964-10-04 55.3 @ Viking 2 1069 22.60% Lyn Oslo 2 1264 47.06% 30.33%
6 1964-09-02 55.1 @ Fredrikstad 2 1174 52.13% Frigg Oslo 2 1128 17.22% 30.65%
7 1964-05-10 54.8 @ Brann 2 1131 42.75% Skeid 2 1167 25.53% 31.72%
8 1964-08-12 54.0 Fredrikstad 2 1165 12.55% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1278 58.46% 28.99%
9 1964-06-20 51.1 Sarpsborg 2 1136 21.61% @ Sandefjord 1 1135 46.98% 31.41%
10 1964-08-08 51.0 @ Valerenga 1 1171 60.56% Raufoss 1 1033 11.21% 28.23%
11 1964-09-27 50.9 Viking 3 1052 14.52% @ Sandefjord 1 1134 55.63% 29.84%
12 1964-07-26 50.8 @ Lyn Oslo 1 1237 58.24% Sandefjord 1 1127 12.70% 29.06%
13 1964-06-07 50.3 @ Sandefjord 1 1149 53.42% Frigg Oslo 1 1090 16.20% 30.38%
14 1964-06-19 50.2 @ Skeid 1 1130 51.38% Frigg Oslo 1 1091 17.83% 30.79%
15 1964-08-16 50.2 @ Fredrikstad 1 1175 50.44% Skeid 1 1145 18.61% 30.95%
16 1964-05-15 50.1 @ Skeid 1 1167 48.69% Fredrikstad 1 1153 20.10% 31.21%
17 1964-04-26 50.0 @ Sandefjord 1 1132 46.27% Lyn Oslo 1 1138 22.25% 31.48%
18 1964-06-09 50.0 @ Brann 1 1142 44.07% Valerenga 1 1167 24.28% 31.65%
19 1964-05-03 49.9 @ Viking 1 1109 44.23% Frigg Oslo 1 1133 24.13% 31.64%
20 1964-05-29 49.9 @ Frigg Oslo 1 1090 38.48% Fredrikstad 1 1159 29.70% 31.81%
21 1964-05-30 49.9 @ Viking 1 1087 37.57% Skeid 1 1162 30.63% 31.81%
22 1964-07-28 49.8 @ Skeid 3 1129 41.24% Valerenga 2 1176 26.98% 31.78%
23 1964-06-08 49.7 Raufoss 4 1030 11.49% @ Skeid 1 1162 60.10% 28.41%
24 1964-08-09 49.0 @ Frigg Oslo 4 1116 53.03% Viking 3 1061 16.50% 30.47%
25 1964-05-03 48.2 Valerenga 2 1158 31.26% @ Raufoss 1 1079 36.94% 31.80%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1964-09-27 31.5 @ Fredrikstad 9 1187 61.53% Raufoss 1 1038 10.63% 27.85%
2 1964-08-13 32.1 @ Skeid 4 1129 52.27% Brann 0 1081 17.11% 30.62%
3 1964-10-04 32.1 @ Sarpsborg 4 1167 52.53% Sandefjord 0 1116 16.90% 30.57%
4 1964-05-23 33.1 @ Brann 5 1126 48.94% Viking 0 1109 19.89% 31.18%
5 1964-07-26 33.3 @ Fredrikstad 4 1155 48.58% Brann 0 1142 20.19% 31.22%
6 1964-05-11 35.8 @ Frigg Oslo 2 1133 48.68% Sarpsborg 0 1119 20.11% 31.21%
7 1964-06-07 35.9 @ Lyn Oslo 1 1230 56.96% Sarpsborg 0 1134 13.57% 29.46%
8 1964-08-12 36.8 @ Sarpsborg 1 1183 53.83% Frigg Oslo 0 1120 15.88% 30.29%
9 1964-05-30 36.9 Lyn Oslo 2 1220 45.05% @ Raufoss 0 1041 24.28% 30.67%
10 1964-08-15 37.3 @ Valerenga 2 1161 43.89% Sarpsborg 0 1187 24.45% 31.66%
11 1964-05-16 37.5 @ Viking 1 1104 51.39% Raufoss 0 1065 17.82% 30.79%
12 1964-09-03 37.5 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1272 67.07% Raufoss 1 1052 7.72% 25.21%
13 1964-08-08 38.0 Lyn Oslo 7 1235 35.80% @ Brann 0 1124 32.57% 31.63%
14 1964-08-12 38.3 @ Raufoss 3 1036 34.33% Sandefjord 0 1134 33.95% 31.72%
15 1964-05-16 38.5 @ Sandefjord 1 1139 47.98% Brann 0 1131 20.72% 31.30%
16 1964-09-02 38.5 @ Sandefjord 2 1104 39.85% Valerenga 0 1161 28.34% 31.81%
17 1964-05-22 38.8 @ Valerenga 3 1170 54.80% Frigg Oslo 1 1097 15.14% 30.06%
18 1964-06-13 38.8 @ Viking 2 1081 38.69% Sandefjord 0 1148 29.50% 31.81%
19 1964-09-01 38.8 @ Skeid 3 1139 54.83% Viking 1 1066 15.12% 30.05%
20 1964-06-12 39.0 @ Sarpsborg 1 1130 46.41% Skeid 0 1136 22.13% 31.47%
21 1964-08-08 39.0 @ Sandefjord 1 1129 46.33% Skeid 0 1135 22.19% 31.47%
22 1964-05-03 39.2 @ Lyn Oslo 4 1139 46.52% Brann 1 1144 22.03% 31.46%
23 1964-05-10 39.2 @ Sandefjord 3 1132 53.55% Raufoss 1 1072 16.09% 30.35%
24 1964-04-26 39.4 @ Sarpsborg 4 1111 45.71% Viking 1 1122 22.76% 31.53%
25 1964-06-21 39.4 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1234 60.84% Viking 1 1094 11.04% 28.12%