1964 First Division Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Lyn Oslo

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sarpsborg

4.50 points above expected

23 points · 18.50 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Brann

5.37 points below expected

12 points · 17.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Lyn Oslo	18	10	6	2	26	39	16	+23	22.2	+3.78
2	Fredrikstad	18	9	6	3	24	40	21	+19	19.6	+4.35
3	Sarpsborg	18	10	3	5	23	30	16	+14	18.5	+4.50
4	Frigg Oslo	18	6	8	4	20	28	29	-1	16.8	+3.19
5	Skeid	18	5	7	6	17	24	22	+2	18.9	-1.89
6	Valerenga	18	6	5	7	17	18	21	-3	18.6	-1.65
7	Sandefjord	18	6	5	7	17	17	23	-6	18.4	-1.36
8	Viking	18	5	4	9	14	22	37	-15	15.2	-1.15
9	Brann	18	3	6	9	12	17	32	-15	17.4	-5.37
10	Raufoss	18	3	4	11	10	22	40	-18	14.4	-4.41

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Lyn Oslo	1288	26	22.22	+3.78	91.1%	10	17	20	22	24	27	33
Fredrikstad	1246	24	19.65	+4.35	93.4%	8	14	17	20	22	25	30
Sarpsborg	1201	23	18.50	+4.50	93.5%	7	13	16	19	21	24	30
Skeid	1167	17	18.89	-1.89	33.2%	7	14	17	19	21	24	31
Valerenga	1135	17	18.65	-1.65	36.7%	7	13	16	19	21	24	30
Frigg Oslo	1126	20	16.81	+3.19	87.0%	6	12	15	17	19	22	30
Sandefjord	1113	17	18.36	-1.36	39.7%	5	13	16	18	21	24	29
Brann	1082	12	17.37	-5.37	7.1%	6	12	15	17	20	23	32
Viking	1076	14	15.15	-1.15	42.4%	4	10	13	15	17	20	27
Raufoss	1043	10	14.41	-4.41	11.9%	3	9	12	14	17	20	29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRA	FRE	FO	LO	RAU	SAN	SAR	SKE	VAL	VIK
Brann	—	0-0-2 2.65	0-2-0 2.78	0-0-2 2.17	0-1-1 3.17	1-0-1 2.40	1-0-1 2.27	0-1-1 2.35	0-2-0 2.46	1-0-1 2.86
Fredrikstad	2-0-0 2.70	—	0-2-0 3.14	1-0-1 2.42	1-1-0 3.53	1-1-0 2.96	1-0-1 2.80	0-2-0 2.72	1-0-1 2.94	2-0-0 3.40
Frigg Oslo	0-2-0 2.56	0-2-0 2.22	—	0-1-1 2.14	2-0-0 2.88	0-1-1 2.50	1-0-1 2.49	1-1-0 2.33	1-0-1 2.31	1-1-0 2.95
Lyn Oslo	2-0-0 3.18	1-0-1 2.97	1-1-0 3.27	—	2-0-0 4.03	0-2-0 3.03	1-1-0 3.44	2-0-0 3.35	0-1-1 3.45	1-1-0 3.94
Raufoss	1-1-0 2.19	0-1-1 1.87	0-0-2 2.47	0-0-2 1.44	—	1-0-1 2.08	0-0-2 2.17	1-0-1 1.95	0-1-1 2.13	0-1-1 2.58
Sandefjord	1-0-1 2.94	0-1-1 2.38	1-1-0 2.87	0-2-0 2.35	1-0-1 3.28	—	0-0-2 2.52	1-1-0 2.55	2-0-0 2.45	0-0-2 3.26
Sarpsborg	1-0-1 3.07	1-0-1 2.56	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 1.94	2-0-0 3.22	2-0-0 2.84	—	1-1-0 2.69	0-1-1 2.68	2-0-0 2.90
Skeid	1-1-0 3.00	0-2-0 2.64	0-1-1 3.02	0-0-2 2.01	1-0-1 3.45	0-1-1 2.81	0-1-1 2.66	—	2-0-0 2.59	1-1-0 3.27
Valerenga	0-2-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.40	1-0-1 3.05	1-1-0 1.95	1-1-0 3.26	0-0-2 2.89	1-1-0 2.66	0-0-2 2.75	—	1-0-1 3.25
Viking	1-0-1 2.48	0-0-2 1.97	0-1-1 2.41	0-1-1 1.49	1-1-0 2.77	2-0-0 2.11	0-0-2 2.44	0-1-1 2.10	1-0-1 2.10	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	7.78%	5.56%	1.67%	1.67%	1.67%	29.44%
1	7.78%	12.22%	5.56%	4.44%	2.22%	1.11%	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	4.44%	2.22%	0.56%	—	18.33%
3	1.67%	4.44%	2.22%	1.11%	0.56%	—	10.00%
4	1.67%	2.22%	0.56%	0.56%	1.11%	—	6.11%
5+	1.67%	1.11%	—	—	—	—	2.78%
Total	29.44%	33.33%	18.33%	10.00%	6.11%	2.78%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.43
Mean allowed	1.43
StdDev scored	1.48
StdDev allowed	1.48
Mean total goals/game	2.86
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.056
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	22.22%	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	61.11%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Brann — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.94
Mean allowed	1.78
StdDev scored	1.47
StdDev allowed	1.93
Mean total goals/game	2.72
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.191
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	44.44%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Fredrikstad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	2.13
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	3.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.059
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	—	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	44.44%	16.67%	16.67%	—	5.56%	100%

Frigg Oslo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.56
Mean allowed	1.61
StdDev scored	1.20
StdDev allowed	1.46
Mean total goals/game	3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.071
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	44.44%	27.78%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Lyn Oslo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.17
Mean allowed	0.89
StdDev scored	1.86
StdDev allowed	0.96
Mean total goals/game	3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.088
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	50.00%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Raufoss — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.22
Mean allowed	2.22
StdDev scored	1.26
StdDev allowed	2.16
Mean total goals/game	3.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.067
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	55.56%
2	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Sandefjord — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.94
Mean allowed	1.28
StdDev scored	0.80
StdDev allowed	1.32
Mean total goals/game	2.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.318
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	38.89%
1	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	38.89%	33.33%	27.78%	—	—	—	100%

Sarpsborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	0.89
StdDev scored	1.88
StdDev allowed	0.83
Mean total goals/game	2.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.013
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	50.00%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Skeid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	1.22
StdDev scored	1.24
StdDev allowed	1.06
Mean total goals/game	2.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.120
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	44.44%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Valerenga — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.00
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	1.08
StdDev allowed	1.04
Mean total goals/game	2.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.156
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	55.56%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	16.67%	22.22%	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	100%

Viking — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.22
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	0.88
StdDev allowed	1.89
Mean total goals/game	3.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.028
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sarpsborg	23	18.5	+4.50
2	Fredrikstad	24	19.6	+4.35
3	Lyn Oslo	26	22.2	+3.78
4	Frigg Oslo	20	16.8	+3.19
5	Viking	14	15.2	-1.15

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Brann	12	17.4	-5.37
2	Raufoss	10	14.4	-4.41
3	Skeid	17	18.9	-1.89
4	Valerenga	17	18.6	-1.65
5	Sandefjord	17	18.4	-1.36

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lyn Oslo	6	May 3 – Jun 7	1 in 315
2	Sarpsborg	5	Jun 12 – Aug 12	1 in 142
3	Fredrikstad	3	Sep 13 – Oct 4	1 in 15
4	Raufoss	1	Jun 8 – Jun 8	1 in 9
5	Brann	2	Aug 16 – Sep 2	1 in 8

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Raufoss	6	Apr 26 – May 30	1 in 213
2	Skeid	2	Jun 8 – Jun 12	1 in 19
3	Sandefjord	2	Jun 13 – Jun 20	1 in 13
4	Brann	3	Jul 26 – Aug 13	1 in 10
5	Viking	3	Jun 21 – Aug 9	1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lyn Oslo	11	Apr 26 – Aug 8	1 in 38
2	Frigg Oslo	6	May 29 – Aug 9	1 in 19
3	Fredrikstad	7	Aug 12 – Oct 4	1 in 15
4	Raufoss	3	Jun 8 – Jun 21	1 in 6
5	Sarpsborg	5	Jun 12 – Aug 12	1 in 6

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Skeid	8	May 3 – Jun 19	1 in 64
2	Brann	7	May 31 – Aug 13	1 in 10
3	Lyn Oslo	3	Sep 13 – Oct 4	1 in 8
4	Frigg Oslo	6	May 19 – Jun 19	1 in 7
5	Sandefjord	4	Jun 7 – Jul 26	1 in 7

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Lyn Oslo	44.26%	20.70%	12.49%	8.56%	5.71%	3.58%	2.19%	1.50%	0.74%	0.27%
Fredrikstad	15.33%	18.40%	15.01%	12.74%	11.73%	8.87%	6.60%	5.75%	3.80%	1.77%
Sarpsborg	8.36%	13.06%	13.37%	12.56%	12.40%	11.11%	10.02%	8.51%	6.80%	3.81%
Frigg Oslo	2.57%	5.08%	8.14%	9.51%	10.63%	12.03%	14.05%	13.63%	14.02%	10.34%
Skeid	9.22%	12.72%	13.65%	13.42%	12.79%	11.67%	9.58%	7.90%	5.72%	3.33%
Valerenga	8.11%	11.03%	12.43%	13.07%	12.09%	12.10%	11.30%	9.07%	6.77%	4.03%
Sandefjord	6.75%	9.71%	11.59%	12.24%	12.71%	12.31%	11.32%	9.98%	8.32%	5.07%
Viking	0.90%	1.90%	2.98%	4.91%	6.30%	9.44%	11.41%	15.91%	20.60%	25.65%
Brann	3.93%	6.15%	8.07%	9.58%	10.76%	12.17%	13.45%	13.56%	12.26%	10.07%
Raufoss	0.57%	1.25%	2.27%	3.41%	4.88%	6.72%	10.08%	14.19%	20.97%	35.66%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo	99.0%	1.0%
Fredrikstad	94.4%	5.6%
Skeid	91.0%	9.0%
Sarpsborg	89.4%	10.6%
Valerenga	89.2%	10.8%
Sandefjord	86.6%	13.4%
Brann	77.7%	22.3%
Frigg Oslo	75.6%	24.4%
Viking	53.8%	46.2%
Raufoss	43.4%	56.6%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1964-04-24	Skeid	L 0-1	1166	1178	44.9%	33.0%	22.1%	-10.1	0
1964-04-24	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	1178	1166	22.1%	33.0%	44.9%	+10.1	3
1964-04-26	Fredrikstad	L 0-2	1174	1164	47.5%	32.5%	20.0%	-20.0	0
1964-04-26	@ Brann	W 2-0	1164	1174	20.0%	32.5%	47.5%	+20.0	3
1964-04-26	Raufoss	W 2-1	1136	1099	50.6%	31.8%	17.6%	+4.8	3
1964-04-26	@ Frigg Oslo	L 1-2	1099	1136	17.6%	31.8%	50.6%	-4.8	0
1964-04-26	Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	1151	1155	45.8%	32.8%	21.4%	-1.1	1
1964-04-26	@ Sandefjord	D 1-1	1155	1151	21.4%	32.8%	45.8%	+1.1	1
1964-04-26	Viking	W 4-1	1126	1128	46.0%	32.8%	21.2%	+13.6	3
1964-04-26	@ Sarpsborg	L 1-4	1128	1126	21.2%	32.8%	46.0%	-13.6	0
1964-05-02	Sarpsborg	W 2-1	1184	1139	51.4%	31.6%	17.0%	+4.6	6
1964-05-02	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1139	1184	17.0%	31.6%	51.4%	-4.6	3
1964-05-03	Brann	W 4-1	1157	1154	46.6%	32.7%	20.7%	+13.4	4
1964-05-03	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-4	1154	1157	20.7%	32.7%	46.6%	-13.4	0
1964-05-03	Valerenga	L 1-2	1094	1156	38.5%	33.4%	28.0%	-8.5	0
1964-05-03	@ Raufoss	W 2-1	1156	1094	28.0%	33.4%	38.5%	+8.5	3
1964-05-03	Sandefjord	D 0-0	1188	1150	50.7%	31.8%	17.5%	-1.8	4
1964-05-03	@ Skeid	D 0-0	1150	1188	17.5%	31.8%	50.7%	+1.8	2
1964-05-03	Frigg Oslo	D 1-1	1115	1140	43.2%	33.2%	23.6%	-0.9	1
1964-05-03	@ Viking	D 1-1	1140	1115	23.6%	33.2%	43.2%	+0.9	4
1964-05-10	Skeid	D 2-2	1141	1186	40.7%	33.4%	26.0%	-0.5	1
1964-05-10	@ Brann	D 2-2	1186	1141	26.0%	33.4%	40.7%	+0.5	5
1964-05-10	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1189	1170	48.5%	32.3%	19.2%	-20.3	6
1964-05-10	@ Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1170	1189	19.2%	32.3%	48.5%	+20.3	7
1964-05-10	Raufoss	W 3-1	1151	1086	53.7%	30.8%	15.5%	+7.4	5
1964-05-10	@ Sandefjord	L 1-3	1086	1151	15.5%	30.8%	53.7%	-7.4	0
1964-05-10	Viking	W 2-1	1164	1114	52.0%	31.4%	16.6%	+4.5	6
1964-05-10	@ Valerenga	L 1-2	1114	1164	16.6%	31.4%	52.0%	-4.5	1
1964-05-11	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1141	1135	47.1%	32.6%	20.3%	+10.8	7
1964-05-11	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-2	1135	1141	20.3%	32.6%	47.1%	-10.8	3
1964-05-15	Valerenga	D 0-0	1124	1169	40.7%	33.4%	25.9%	-0.7	4
1964-05-15	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1169	1124	25.9%	33.4%	40.7%	+0.7	7
1964-05-15	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1186	1168	48.4%	32.3%	19.2%	-1.4	6
1964-05-15	@ Skeid	D 1-1	1168	1186	19.2%	32.3%	48.4%	+1.4	7
1964-05-16	Brann	W 1-0	1159	1140	48.5%	32.3%	19.2%	+5.5	8
1964-05-16	@ Sandefjord	L 0-1	1140	1159	19.2%	32.3%	48.5%	-5.5	1
1964-05-16	Raufoss	W 1-0	1109	1078	49.9%	32.0%	18.1%	+5.2	4
1964-05-16	@ Viking	L 0-1	1078	1109	18.1%	32.0%	49.9%	-5.2	0
1964-05-19	Lyn Oslo	L 0-6	1152	1190	41.6%	33.3%	25.1%	-49.9	7
1964-05-19	@ Frigg Oslo	W 6-0	1190	1152	25.1%	33.3%	41.6%	+49.9	10
1964-05-22	Frigg Oslo	W 3-1	1169	1102	53.9%	30.7%	15.4%	+7.3	10
1964-05-22	@ Valerenga	L 1-3	1102	1169	15.4%	30.7%	53.9%	-7.3	7
1964-05-23	Viking	W 5-0	1135	1115	48.7%	32.3%	19.1%	+23.9	4
1964-05-23	@ Brann	L 0-5	1115	1135	19.1%	32.3%	48.7%	-23.9	4
1964-05-24	Sandefjord	W 2-1	1170	1164	46.9%	32.6%	20.4%	+5.4	10
1964-05-24	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1164	1170	20.4%	32.6%	46.9%	-5.4	8
1964-05-24	Skeid	W 3-2	1240	1185	52.6%	31.2%	16.2%	+4.2	13
1964-05-24	@ Lyn Oslo	L 2-3	1185	1240	16.2%	31.2%	52.6%	-4.2	6
1964-05-24	Sarpsborg	L 1-4	1073	1123	40.0%	33.4%	26.6%	-21.4	0
1964-05-24	@ Raufoss	W 4-1	1123	1073	26.6%	33.4%	40.0%	+21.4	7
1964-05-29	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1095	1175	36.0%	33.4%	30.6%	-0.2	8
1964-05-29	@ Frigg Oslo	D 1-1	1175	1095	30.6%	33.4%	36.0%	+0.2	11
1964-05-30	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1052	1244	22.5%	31.0%	46.5%	-11.3	0
1964-05-30	@ Raufoss	W 2-0	1244	1052	46.5%	31.0%	22.5%	+11.3	16
1964-05-30	Skeid	D 1-1	1091	1181	34.7%	33.4%	32.0%	-0.1	5
1964-05-30	@ Viking	D 1-1	1181	1091	32.0%	33.4%	34.7%	+0.1	7
1964-05-31	Brann	W 1-0	1145	1159	44.6%	33.0%	22.4%	+6.2	10
1964-05-31	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1159	1145	22.4%	33.0%	44.6%	-6.2	4
1964-05-31	Sandefjord	L 0-1	1177	1159	48.4%	32.3%	19.2%	-10.8	10
1964-05-31	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	1159	1177	19.2%	32.3%	48.4%	+10.8	11
1964-06-06	Viking	W 4-2	1175	1091	55.7%	30.0%	14.2%	+6.1	14
1964-06-06	@ Fredrikstad	L 2-4	1091	1175	14.2%	30.0%	55.7%	-6.1	5
1964-06-07	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	1256	1151	57.8%	29.1%	13.1%	+3.8	19
1964-06-07	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	1151	1256	13.1%	29.1%	57.8%	-3.8	10
1964-06-07	Frigg Oslo	D 1-1	1170	1095	54.7%	30.4%	14.8%	-2.0	12
1964-06-07	@ Sandefjord	D 1-1	1095	1170	14.8%	30.4%	54.7%	+2.0	9
1964-06-08	Raufoss	L 1-4	1181	1040	61.4%	27.3%	11.3%	-29.9	7
1964-06-08	@ Skeid	W 4-1	1040	1181	11.3%	27.3%	61.4%	+29.9	3
1964-06-09	Valerenga	D 1-1	1153	1166	44.7%	33.0%	22.3%	-1.0	5
1964-06-09	@ Brann	D 1-1	1166	1153	22.3%	33.0%	44.7%	+1.0	11
1964-06-12	Skeid	W 1-0	1147	1151	45.8%	32.8%	21.4%	+5.9	13
1964-06-12	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1151	1147	21.4%	32.8%	45.8%	-5.9	7
1964-06-12	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	1167	1260	34.4%	33.3%	32.3%	-0.1	12
1964-06-12	@ Valerenga	D 0-0	1260	1167	32.3%	33.3%	34.4%	+0.1	20
1964-06-13	Sandefjord	W 2-0	1085	1168	35.6%	33.4%	31.0%	+14.6	8
1964-06-13	@ Viking	L 0-2	1168	1085	31.0%	33.4%	35.6%	-14.6	12
1964-06-14	Brann	D 0-0	1097	1152	39.4%	33.4%	27.2%	-0.6	10
1964-06-14	@ Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	1152	1097	27.2%	33.4%	39.4%	+0.6	6
1964-06-14	Fredrikstad	D 4-4	1070	1181	31.8%	33.1%	35.1%	+0.1	4
1964-06-14	@ Raufoss	D 4-4	1181	1070	35.1%	33.1%	31.8%	-0.1	15
1964-06-19	Frigg Oslo	D 1-1	1145	1096	51.9%	31.4%	16.7%	-1.7	8
1964-06-19	@ Skeid	D 1-1	1096	1145	16.7%	31.4%	51.9%	+1.7	11
1964-06-20	Valerenga	L 0-1	1181	1167	48.0%	32.4%	19.6%	-10.7	15
1964-06-20	@ Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1167	1181	19.6%	32.4%	48.0%	+10.7	15
1964-06-20	Sarpsborg	L 1-2	1153	1153	46.3%	32.8%	20.9%	-9.8	12
1964-06-20	@ Sandefjord	W 2-1	1153	1153	20.9%	32.8%	46.3%	+9.8	16
1964-06-21	Viking	W 2-1	1260	1099	63.3%	26.2%	10.4%	+2.8	23
1964-06-21	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	1099	1260	10.4%	26.2%	63.3%	-2.8	8
1964-06-21	Brann	D 0-0	1070	1152	35.8%	33.4%	30.8%	-0.2	5
1964-06-21	@ Raufoss	D 0-0	1152	1070	30.8%	33.4%	35.8%	+0.2	7
1964-07-26	Brann	W 4-0	1171	1152	48.5%	32.3%	19.2%	+19.5	18
1964-07-26	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-4	1152	1171	19.2%	32.3%	48.5%	-19.5	7
1964-07-26	Sandefjord	D 1-1	1262	1143	59.2%	28.4%	12.3%	-2.3	24
1964-07-26	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	1143	1262	12.3%	28.4%	59.2%	+2.3	13
1964-07-26	Sarpsborg	L 1-6	1096	1163	37.9%	33.4%	28.6%	-32.4	8
1964-07-26	@ Viking	W 6-1	1163	1096	28.6%	33.4%	37.9%	+32.4	19
1964-07-28	Frigg Oslo	L 0-3	1070	1098	42.9%	33.2%	23.9%	-26.8	5
1964-07-28	@ Raufoss	W 3-0	1098	1070	23.9%	33.2%	42.9%	+26.8	14
1964-07-28	Valerenga	W 3-2	1143	1178	42.1%	33.3%	24.6%	+5.9	11
1964-07-28	@ Skeid	L 2-3	1178	1143	24.6%	33.3%	42.1%	-5.9	15
1964-08-08	Lyn Oslo	L 0-7	1133	1260	29.7%	32.9%	37.4%	-45.3	7
1964-08-08	@ Brann	W 7-0	1260	1133	37.4%	32.9%	29.7%	+45.3	27
1964-08-08	Skeid	W 1-0	1146	1149	45.9%	32.8%	21.3%	+5.9	16
1964-08-08	@ Sandefjord	L 0-1	1149	1146	21.3%	32.8%	45.9%	-5.9	11
1964-08-08	Fredrikstad	W 3-1	1195	1190	46.9%	32.6%	20.5%	+9.4	22
1964-08-08	@ Sarpsborg	L 1-3	1190	1195	20.5%	32.6%	46.9%	-9.4	18
1964-08-08	Raufoss	D 1-1	1172	1043	60.2%	28.0%	11.9%	-2.4	16
1964-08-08	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	1043	1172	11.9%	28.0%	60.2%	+2.4	6
1964-08-09	Viking	W 4-3	1124	1064	53.2%	31.0%	15.8%	+4.0	17
1964-08-09	@ Frigg Oslo	L 3-4	1064	1124	15.8%	31.0%	53.2%	-4.0	8
1964-08-12	Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1305	1181	59.8%	28.2%	12.0%	-12.0	27
1964-08-12	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	1181	1305	12.0%	28.2%	59.8%	+12.0	21
1964-08-12	Sandefjord	W 3-0	1046	1152	32.5%	33.2%	34.3%	+22.6	9
1964-08-12	@ Raufoss	L 0-3	1152	1046	34.3%	33.2%	32.5%	-22.6	16
1964-08-12	Frigg Oslo	W 1-0	1204	1128	54.8%	30.4%	14.8%	+4.3	25
1964-08-12	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1128	1204	14.8%	30.4%	54.8%	-4.3	17
1964-08-12	Valerenga	W 1-0	1060	1169	32.0%	33.1%	34.8%	+8.3	11
1964-08-12	@ Viking	L 0-1	1169	1060	34.8%	33.1%	32.0%	-8.3	16
1964-08-13	Brann	W 4-0	1143	1088	52.7%	31.2%	16.2%	+16.8	14
1964-08-13	@ Skeid	L 0-4	1088	1143	16.2%	31.2%	52.7%	-16.8	7
1964-08-15	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1161	1209	40.4%	33.4%	26.3%	+13.0	19
1964-08-15	@ Valerenga	L 0-2	1209	1161	26.3%	33.4%	40.4%	-13.0	25
1964-08-16	Sandefjord	W 3-1	1071	1129	39.0%	33.4%	27.6%	+11.7	10
1964-08-16	@ Brann	L 1-3	1129	1071	27.6%	33.4%	39.0%	-11.7	16
1964-08-16	Skeid	D 1-1	1193	1160	50.1%	31.9%	18.0%	-1.5	22
1964-08-16	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1160	1193	18.0%	31.9%	50.1%	+1.5	15
1964-08-16	Frigg Oslo	D 2-2	1293	1124	64.2%	25.7%	10.1%	-2.0	28
1964-08-16	@ Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	1124	1293	10.1%	25.7%	64.2%	+2.0	18
1964-08-16	Viking	D 0-0	1068	1068	46.3%	32.8%	20.9%	-1.3	10
1964-08-16	@ Raufoss	D 0-0	1068	1068	20.9%	32.8%	46.3%	+1.3	12
1964-08-28	Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	1162	1291	29.4%	32.8%	37.8%	-7.4	15
1964-08-28	@ Skeid	W 1-0	1291	1162	37.8%	32.8%	29.4%	+7.4	31
1964-08-29	Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1117	1191	36.9%	33.4%	29.7%	-0.3	17
1964-08-29	@ Sandefjord	D 0-0	1191	1117	29.7%	33.4%	36.9%	+0.3	23
1964-08-30	Valerenga	W 3-1	1126	1174	40.3%	33.4%	26.3%	+11.3	21
1964-08-30	@ Frigg Oslo	L 1-3	1174	1126	26.3%	33.4%	40.3%	-11.3	19
1964-08-30	Raufoss	W 3-2	1196	1067	60.2%	28.0%	11.8%	+3.1	28
1964-08-30	@ Sarpsborg	L 2-3	1067	1196	11.8%	28.0%	60.2%	-3.1	10
1964-09-01	Viking	W 3-1	1154	1069	55.8%	30.0%	14.2%	+6.8	18
1964-09-01	@ Skeid	L 1-3	1069	1154	14.2%	30.0%	55.8%	-6.8	12
1964-09-02	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1082	1199	31.1%	33.1%	35.9%	+16.0	13
1964-09-02	@ Brann	L 0-2	1199	1082	35.9%	33.1%	31.1%	-16.0	28
1964-09-02	Frigg Oslo	D 2-2	1192	1137	52.5%	31.2%	16.3%	-1.3	24
1964-09-02	@ Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1137	1192	16.3%	31.2%	52.5%	+1.3	22
1964-09-02	Valerenga	W 2-0	1117	1163	40.6%	33.4%	26.0%	+12.9	20
1964-09-02	@ Sandefjord	L 0-2	1163	1117	26.0%	33.4%	40.6%	-12.9	19
1964-09-03	Raufoss	W 2-1	1299	1064	70.3%	21.8%	7.9%	+2.0	34
1964-09-03	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	1064	1299	7.9%	21.8%	70.3%	-2.0	10
1964-09-09	Brann	W 1-0	1063	1098	41.9%	33.3%	24.8%	+6.6	15
1964-09-09	@ Viking	L 0-1	1098	1063	24.8%	33.3%	41.9%	-6.6	13
1964-09-11	Sandefjord	L 0-2	1139	1130	47.3%	32.6%	20.1%	-19.9	22
1964-09-11	@ Frigg Oslo	W 2-0	1130	1139	20.1%	32.6%	47.3%	+19.9	23
1964-09-13	Skeid	L 1-3	1062	1161	33.4%	33.3%	33.3%	-13.3	10
1964-09-13	@ Raufoss	W 3-1	1161	1062	33.3%	33.3%	33.4%	+13.3	21
1964-09-13	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	1183	1301	30.9%	33.0%	36.1%	+0.2	29
1964-09-13	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1301	1183	36.1%	33.0%	30.9%	-0.2	35
1964-09-13	Brann	D 0-0	1150	1092	52.9%	31.1%	16.0%	-2.0	20
1964-09-13	@ Valerenga	D 0-0	1092	1150	16.0%	31.1%	52.9%	+2.0	14
1964-09-13	Fredrikstad	L 0-2	1069	1190	30.5%	33.0%	36.5%	-14.3	15
1964-09-13	@ Viking	W 2-0	1190	1069	36.5%	33.0%	30.5%	+14.4	27
1964-09-27	Frigg Oslo	D 3-3	1094	1119	43.2%	33.2%	23.6%	-0.5	15
1964-09-27	@ Brann	D 3-3	1119	1094	23.6%	33.2%	43.2%	+0.5	23
1964-09-27	Raufoss	W 9-1	1205	1049	62.9%	26.5%	10.6%	+17.1	30
1964-09-27	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-9	1049	1205	10.6%	26.5%	62.9%	-17.1	10
1964-09-27	Valerenga	L 2-3	1300	1148	62.6%	26.7%	10.8%	-11.8	35
1964-09-27	@ Lyn Oslo	W 3-2	1148	1300	10.8%	26.7%	62.6%	+11.8	23
1964-09-27	Viking	L 1-3	1150	1055	56.8%	29.6%	13.6%	-20.0	23
1964-09-27	@ Sandefjord	W 3-1	1055	1150	13.6%	29.6%	56.8%	+20.0	18
1964-09-27	Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1174	1183	45.3%	32.9%	21.8%	-1.2	22
1964-09-27	@ Skeid	D 0-0	1183	1174	21.8%	32.9%	45.3%	+1.2	30
1964-10-02	Skeid	W 2-1	1119	1173	39.6%	33.4%	27.0%	+6.6	26
1964-10-02	@ Frigg Oslo	L 1-2	1173	1119	27.0%	33.4%	39.6%	-6.7	22
1964-10-04	Raufoss	L 0-1	1093	1032	53.3%	30.9%	15.8%	-11.6	15
1964-10-04	@ Brann	W 1-0	1032	1093	15.8%	30.9%	53.3%	+11.6	13
1964-10-04	Sandefjord	W 4-0	1184	1130	52.5%	31.2%	16.3%	+16.9	33
1964-10-04	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-4	1130	1184	16.3%	31.2%	52.5%	-16.9	23
1964-10-04	Fredrikstad	L 0-3	1160	1222	38.4%	33.4%	28.1%	-24.6	23
1964-10-04	@ Valerenga	W 3-0	1222	1160	28.1%	33.4%	38.4%	+24.6	33
1964-10-04	Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	1075	1289	20.6%	30.2%	49.2%	+1.0	19
1964-10-04	@ Viking	D 2-2	1289	1075	49.2%	30.2%	20.6%	-1.0	36

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1964-09-27	10.77%	Valerenga	1148	3	@ Lyn Oslo	1300	2
2	1964-06-08	11.29%	Raufoss	1040	4	@ Skeid	1181	1
3	1964-08-12	12.05%	Fredrikstad	1181	2	@ Lyn Oslo	1305	1
4	1964-09-27	13.63%	Viking	1055	3	@ Sandefjord	1150	1
5	1964-10-04	15.76%	Raufoss	1032	1	@ Brann	1093	0
6	1964-05-10	19.18%	Lyn Oslo	1170	2	@ Fredrikstad	1189	0
7	1964-05-31	19.25%	Sandefjord	1159	1	@ Valerenga	1177	0
8	1964-06-20	19.57%	Valerenga	1167	1	@ Fredrikstad	1181	0
9	1964-04-26	19.98%	Fredrikstad	1164	2	@ Brann	1174	0
10	1964-09-11	20.09%	Sandefjord	1130	2	@ Frigg Oslo	1139	0
11	1964-06-20	20.91%	Sarpsborg	1153	2	@ Sandefjord	1153	1
12	1964-04-24	22.15%	Skeid	1178	1	@ Valerenga	1166	0
13	1964-07-28	23.86%	Frigg Oslo	1098	3	@ Raufoss	1070	0
14	1964-05-19	25.11%	Lyn Oslo	1190	6	@ Frigg Oslo	1152	0
15	1964-05-24	26.56%	Sarpsborg	1123	4	@ Raufoss	1073	1
16	1964-05-03	28.03%	Valerenga	1156	2	@ Raufoss	1094	1
17	1964-10-04	28.12%	Fredrikstad	1222	3	@ Valerenga	1160	0
18	1964-07-26	28.65%	Sarpsborg	1163	6	@ Viking	1096	1
19	1964-09-02	31.11%	@ Brann	1082	2	Sarpsborg	1199	0
20	1964-08-12	32.02%	@ Viking	1060	1	Valerenga	1169	0
21	1964-08-12	32.52%	@ Raufoss	1046	3	Sandefjord	1152	0
22	1964-09-13	33.29%	Skeid	1161	3	@ Raufoss	1062	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1964-05-19	49.89	Lyn Oslo	6	1190	25.11%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1152	41.58%
2	1964-08-08	45.26	Lyn Oslo	7	1260	37.43%	@ Brann	0	1133	29.71%
3	1964-07-26	32.44	Sarpsborg	6	1163	28.65%	@ Viking	1	1096	37.91%
4	1964-06-08	29.94	Raufoss	4	1040	11.29%	@ Skeid	1	1181	61.39%
5	1964-07-28	26.75	Frigg Oslo	3	1098	23.86%	@ Raufoss	0	1070	42.94%
6	1964-10-04	24.58	Fredrikstad	3	1222	28.12%	@ Valerenga	0	1160	38.44%
7	1964-05-23	23.89	@ Brann	5	1135	48.67%	Viking	0	1115	19.05%
8	1964-08-12	22.60	@ Raufoss	3	1046	32.52%	Sandefjord	0	1152	34.28%
9	1964-05-24	21.38	Sarpsborg	4	1123	26.56%	@ Raufoss	1	1073	40.04%
10	1964-05-10	20.30	Lyn Oslo	2	1170	19.18%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1189	48.50%
11	1964-09-27	19.96	Viking	3	1055	13.63%	@ Sandefjord	1	1150	56.79%
12	1964-04-26	19.95	Fredrikstad	2	1164	19.98%	@ Brann	0	1174	47.49%
13	1964-09-11	19.91	Sandefjord	2	1130	20.09%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1139	47.35%
14	1964-07-26	19.52	@ Fredrikstad	4	1171	48.46%	Brann	0	1152	19.21%
15	1964-09-27	17.14	@ Fredrikstad	9	1205	62.88%	Raufoss	1	1049	10.63%
16	1964-10-04	16.94	@ Sarpsborg	4	1184	52.50%	Sandefjord	0	1130	16.28%
17	1964-08-13	16.83	@ Skeid	4	1143	52.66%	Brann	0	1088	16.17%
18	1964-09-02	16.03	@ Brann	2	1082	31.11%	Sarpsborg	0	1199	35.85%
19	1964-06-13	14.56	@ Viking	2	1085	35.63%	Sandefjord	0	1168	30.97%
20	1964-09-13	14.35	Fredrikstad	2	1190	36.53%	@ Viking	0	1069	30.50%
21	1964-04-26	13.64	@ Sarpsborg	4	1126	45.97%	Viking	1	1128	21.22%
22	1964-05-03	13.38	@ Lyn Oslo	4	1157	46.60%	Brann	1	1154	20.70%
23	1964-09-13	13.26	Skeid	3	1161	33.29%	@ Raufoss	1	1062	33.44%
24	1964-08-15	13.03	@ Valerenga	2	1161	40.35%	Sarpsborg	0	1209	26.27%
25	1964-09-02	12.94	@ Sandefjord	2	1117	40.61%	Valerenga	0	1163	26.01%