1965 First Division Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Valerenga

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Valerenga

7.98 points above expected

27 points · 19.02 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sandefjord

10.15 points below expected

2 points · 12.15 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valerenga	18	12	3	3	27	39	25	+14	19.0	+7.98
2	Lyn Oslo	18	12	2	4	26	57	22	+35	23.1	+2.87
3	Sarpsborg	18	10	3	5	23	32	24	+8	20.1	+2.90
4	Steinkjer	18	9	3	6	21	27	21	+6	19.1	+1.95
5	Fredrikstad	18	8	4	6	20	40	31	+9	21.4	-1.40
6	Skeid	18	8	1	9	17	28	30	-2	17.8	-0.80
7	IF Odd	18	7	2	9	16	30	35	-5	18.4	-2.43
8	Frigg Oslo	18	5	5	8	15	22	30	-8	14.7	+0.34
9	Viking	18	5	3	10	13	20	32	-12	14.2	-1.25
10	Sandefjord	18	0	2	16	2	12	57	-45	12.2	-10.15

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Lyn Oslo	1405	26	23.13	+2.87	83.9%	8	17	21	23	25	29	35
Sarpsborg	1257	23	20.10	+2.90	83.0%	6	14	18	20	23	26	32
Steinkjer	1248	21	19.05	+1.95	75.6%	6	13	17	19	21	25	31
Fredrikstad	1245	20	21.40	-1.40	39.1%	9	16	19	21	24	27	33
Valerenga	1243	27	19.02	+7.98	99.3%	6	13	17	19	21	25	32
IF Odd	1225	16	18.43	-2.43	29.4%	6	13	16	18	21	24	31
Skeid	1196	17	17.80	-0.80	46.6%	6	12	15	18	20	24	31
Frigg Oslo	1136	15	14.66	+0.34	59.8%	2	9	12	15	17	20	28
Viking	1112	13	14.25	-1.25	42.6%	2	9	12	14	17	20	29
Sandefjord	956	2	12.15	-10.15	0.1%	1	7	10	12	14	18	25

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FRE	FO	IO	LO	SAN	SAR	SKE	STE	VAL	VIK
Fredrikstad	—	1-0-1 4.02	1-0-1 3.35	0-1-1 2.55	2-0-0 3.98	1-1-0 2.94	2-0-0 3.22	1-0-1 3.26	0-1-1 3.22	0-1-1 4.07
Frigg Oslo	1-0-1 1.67	—	0-1-1 2.32	1-0-1 1.49	1-1-0 3.51	0-1-1 1.99	1-0-1 2.59	0-1-1 2.19	0-0-2 2.14	1-1-0 2.73
IF Odd	1-0-1 2.33	1-1-0 3.36	—	1-0-1 2.18	2-0-0 3.69	0-1-1 2.77	1-0-1 2.81	0-0-2 3.09	0-0-2 2.68	1-0-1 3.35
Lyn Oslo	1-1-0 3.13	1-0-1 4.21	1-0-1 3.50	—	2-0-0 4.52	1-0-1 3.28	2-0-0 3.79	1-0-1 3.27	1-1-0 3.33	2-0-0 4.30
Sandefjord	0-0-2 1.72	0-1-1 2.18	0-0-2 1.99	0-0-2 1.18	—	0-0-2 1.39	0-0-2 1.89	0-1-1 1.66	0-0-2 2.08	0-0-2 2.70
Sarpsborg	0-1-1 2.73	1-1-0 3.69	1-1-0 2.90	1-0-1 2.40	2-0-0 4.29	—	1-0-1 3.05	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 3.03	2-0-0 3.70
Skeid	0-0-2 2.46	1-0-1 3.09	1-0-1 2.86	0-0-2 1.90	2-0-0 3.80	1-0-1 2.63	—	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.69	1-1-0 3.28
Steinkjer	1-0-1 2.42	1-1-0 3.49	2-0-0 2.59	1-0-1 2.42	1-1-0 4.03	1-0-1 2.81	1-0-1 3.01	—	0-1-1 2.83	1-0-1 3.58
Valerenga	1-1-0 2.46	2-0-0 3.54	2-0-0 2.99	0-1-1 2.36	2-0-0 3.62	1-0-1 2.64	1-0-1 2.99	1-1-0 2.85	—	2-0-0 3.48
Viking	1-1-0 1.62	0-1-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-2 1.39	2-0-0 2.97	0-0-2 1.99	0-1-1 2.40	1-0-1 2.10	0-0-2 2.20	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.33%	7.22%	5.56%	4.44%	2.22%	2.22%	25.00%
1	7.22%	5.56%	6.67%	3.33%	1.11%	3.33%	27.22%
2	5.56%	6.67%	5.56%	3.89%	0.56%	—	22.22%
3	4.44%	3.33%	3.89%	1.11%	1.11%	0.56%	14.44%
4	2.22%	1.11%	0.56%	1.11%	—	—	5.00%
5+	2.22%	3.33%	—	0.56%	—	—	6.11%
Total	25.00%	27.22%	22.22%	14.44%	5.00%	6.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.71
Mean allowed	1.71
StdDev scored	1.58
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	3.41
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.185
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	—	100%

Fredrikstad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.22
Mean allowed	1.72
StdDev scored	2.24
StdDev allowed	1.36
Mean total goals/game	3.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.191
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	—	100%

Frigg Oslo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.22
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	1.11
StdDev allowed	1.37
Mean total goals/game	2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.128
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	27.78%
1	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	22.22%	—	11.11%	100%

IF Odd — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.67
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	1.53
StdDev allowed	1.51
Mean total goals/game	3.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.388
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	22.22%	50.00%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	100%

Lyn Oslo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.17
Mean allowed	1.22
StdDev scored	2.20
StdDev allowed	1.00
Mean total goals/game	4.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.337
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	16.67%	16.67%	—	5.56%	44.44%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	16.67%	44.44%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	—	11.11%	33.33%	27.78%	5.56%	22.22%	100%

Sandefjord — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.67
Mean allowed	3.17
StdDev scored	0.69
StdDev allowed	1.82
Mean total goals/game	3.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.141
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	100%

Sarpsborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	1.33
StdDev scored	1.26
StdDev allowed	1.61
Mean total goals/game	3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.280
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	50.00%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	22.22%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Skeid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.56
Mean allowed	1.67
StdDev scored	1.10
StdDev allowed	2.03
Mean total goals/game	3.22
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.194
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	5.56%	38.89%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	44.44%	22.22%	22.22%	—	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Steinkjer — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	1.34
StdDev allowed	1.47
Mean total goals/game	2.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.195
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	33.33%	—	—	5.56%	100%

Valerenga — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.17
Mean allowed	1.39
StdDev scored	1.38
StdDev allowed	1.61
Mean total goals/game	3.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.083
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.11%	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	38.89%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	33.33%	33.33%	11.11%	11.11%	—	100%

Viking — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.11
Mean allowed	1.78
StdDev scored	1.13
StdDev allowed	1.17
Mean total goals/game	2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.471
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valerenga	27	19.0	+7.98
2	Sarpsborg	23	20.1	+2.90
3	Lyn Oslo	26	23.1	+2.87
4	Steinkjer	21	19.1	+1.95
5	Frigg Oslo	15	14.7	+0.34

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sandefjord	2	12.2	-10.15
2	IF Odd	16	18.4	-2.43
3	Fredrikstad	20	21.4	-1.40
4	Viking	13	14.2	-1.25
5	Skeid	17	17.8	-0.80

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sarpsborg	6	May 23 – Aug 1	1 in 84
2	Skeid	5	Aug 18 – Sep 22	1 in 64
3	Lyn Oslo	5	Aug 26 – Oct 10	1 in 13
4	Valerenga	4	Jun 18 – Aug 19	1 in 9
5	Fredrikstad	2	May 23 – May 30	1 in 7

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Skeid	5	Jun 4 – Aug 13	1 in 117
2	Sandefjord	9	Aug 1 – Oct 10	1 in 64
3	Lyn Oslo	2	Aug 15 – Aug 18	1 in 18
4	Frigg Oslo	3	Apr 23 – May 9	1 in 15
5	Sarpsborg	2	Sep 9 – Sep 19	1 in 10

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Frigg Oslo	7	Jun 7 – Aug 29	1 in 273
2	Valerenga	7	Apr 25 – Jun 7	1 in 81
3	Fredrikstad	7	Apr 25 – Jun 7	1 in 34
4	Sarpsborg	7	May 23 – Aug 12	1 in 22
5	Skeid	5	Aug 18 – Sep 22	1 in 12

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sandefjord	18	Apr 25 – Oct 10	1 in 369
2	Skeid	5	Jun 4 – Aug 13	1 in 18
3	IF Odd	4	Aug 29 – Sep 19	1 in 11
4	Lyn Oslo	2	May 14 – May 23	1 in 7
5	Viking	4	May 30 – Jun 20	1 in 6

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Valerenga	7.98%	12.74%	13.34%	15.02%	14.06%	12.80%	10.55%	7.35%	4.28%	1.88%
Lyn Oslo	43.81%	22.23%	13.47%	8.40%	5.46%	3.44%	1.86%	0.93%	0.34%	0.06%
Sarpsborg	12.38%	15.09%	16.14%	14.90%	13.30%	11.12%	8.06%	5.13%	2.81%	1.07%
Steinkjer	7.04%	11.03%	14.03%	14.97%	14.92%	12.97%	10.83%	8.05%	4.34%	1.82%
Fredrikstad	19.96%	21.72%	18.01%	13.30%	10.40%	7.20%	4.93%	2.75%	1.31%	0.42%
Skeid	3.25%	6.56%	9.20%	11.89%	14.32%	15.51%	15.33%	12.36%	7.66%	3.92%
IF Odd	4.76%	8.21%	10.80%	13.22%	13.68%	14.89%	14.90%	10.47%	6.34%	2.73%
Frigg Oslo	0.35%	1.09%	2.53%	4.22%	6.42%	9.91%	14.77%	20.84%	23.21%	16.66%
Viking	0.41%	1.19%	2.06%	3.05%	5.61%	8.58%	11.87%	19.63%	25.93%	21.67%
Sandefjord	0.06%	0.14%	0.42%	1.03%	1.83%	3.58%	6.90%	12.49%	23.78%	49.77%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo	99.6%	0.4%
Fredrikstad	98.3%	1.7%
Sarpsborg	96.1%	3.9%
Steinkjer	93.8%	6.2%
Valerenga	93.8%	6.2%
IF Odd	90.9%	9.1%
Skeid	88.4%	11.6%
Frigg Oslo	60.1%	39.9%
Viking	52.4%	47.6%
Sandefjord	26.5%	73.6%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1965-04-23	Skeid	L 0-3	1164	1191	55.5%	16.2%	28.3%	-33.1	0
1965-04-23	@ Frigg Oslo	W 3-0	1191	1164	28.3%	16.2%	55.5%	+33.2	3
1965-04-25	Valerenga	D 2-2	1238	1171	65.7%	15.9%	18.5%	-1.9	1
1965-04-25	@ Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1171	1238	18.5%	15.9%	65.7%	+1.9	1
1965-04-25	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	1263	1211	64.2%	15.9%	19.9%	+4.9	3
1965-04-25	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	1211	1263	19.9%	15.9%	64.2%	-4.9	0
1965-04-25	Steinkjer	L 0-2	1282	1215	65.6%	15.9%	18.5%	-26.9	0
1965-04-25	@ IF Odd	W 2-0	1215	1282	18.5%	15.9%	65.6%	+26.9	3
1965-04-25	Sandefjord	W 2-1	1135	1156	56.3%	16.2%	27.5%	+6.2	3
1965-04-25	@ Viking	L 1-2	1156	1135	27.5%	16.2%	56.3%	-6.2	0
1965-04-30	Fredrikstad	L 2-3	1224	1236	57.4%	16.2%	26.4%	-11.2	3
1965-04-30	@ Skeid	W 3-2	1236	1224	26.4%	16.2%	57.4%	+11.2	4
1965-05-02	IF Odd	L 1-2	1150	1255	45.4%	16.2%	38.4%	-9.5	0
1965-05-02	@ Sandefjord	W 2-1	1255	1150	38.4%	16.2%	45.4%	+9.5	3
1965-05-02	Frigg Oslo	W 2-0	1206	1130	66.4%	15.8%	17.7%	+8.3	3
1965-05-02	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-2	1130	1206	17.7%	15.8%	66.4%	-8.3	0
1965-05-02	Lyn Oslo	L 1-4	1242	1268	55.7%	16.2%	28.1%	-28.0	3
1965-05-02	@ Steinkjer	W 4-1	1268	1242	28.1%	16.2%	55.7%	+28.0	6
1965-05-02	Viking	W 4-0	1173	1141	62.3%	16.0%	21.7%	+19.0	4
1965-05-02	@ Valerenga	L 0-4	1141	1173	21.7%	16.0%	62.3%	-19.0	3
1965-05-07	IF Odd	W 5-0	1296	1264	62.2%	16.0%	21.8%	+23.5	9
1965-05-07	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-5	1264	1296	21.8%	16.0%	62.2%	-23.5	3
1965-05-09	Steinkjer	L 0-1	1122	1214	47.3%	16.2%	36.5%	-10.4	0
1965-05-09	@ Frigg Oslo	W 1-0	1214	1122	36.5%	16.2%	47.3%	+10.5	6
1965-05-09	Valerenga	L 0-2	1140	1192	52.6%	16.2%	31.2%	-21.7	0
1965-05-09	@ Sandefjord	W 2-0	1192	1140	31.2%	16.2%	52.6%	+21.7	7
1965-05-09	Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1215	1248	54.9%	16.2%	28.9%	-1.5	4
1965-05-09	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1248	1215	28.9%	16.2%	54.9%	+1.5	5
1965-05-09	Skeid	D 1-1	1122	1213	47.3%	16.2%	36.5%	-0.5	4
1965-05-09	@ Viking	D 1-1	1213	1122	36.5%	16.2%	47.3%	+0.5	4
1965-05-14	Valerenga	D 2-2	1319	1214	69.0%	15.7%	15.4%	-2.1	10
1965-05-14	@ Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	1214	1319	15.4%	15.7%	69.0%	+2.1	8
1965-05-16	Viking	D 1-1	1249	1121	70.7%	15.5%	13.8%	-3.1	6
1965-05-16	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1121	1249	13.8%	15.5%	70.7%	+3.1	5
1965-05-16	Sandefjord	W 1-0	1214	1119	68.1%	15.7%	16.2%	+4.0	7
1965-05-16	@ Skeid	L 0-1	1119	1214	16.2%	15.7%	68.1%	-4.0	0
1965-05-16	Sarpsborg	W 3-0	1224	1213	60.0%	16.1%	23.9%	+15.9	9
1965-05-16	@ Steinkjer	L 0-3	1213	1224	23.9%	16.1%	60.0%	-15.9	4
1965-05-23	Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	1112	1317	31.6%	16.0%	52.3%	+11.4	3
1965-05-23	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	1317	1112	52.3%	16.0%	31.6%	-11.4	10
1965-05-23	Fredrikstad	L 0-6	1114	1246	41.7%	16.2%	42.1%	-49.1	0
1965-05-23	@ Sandefjord	W 6-0	1246	1114	42.1%	16.2%	41.7%	+49.1	9
1965-05-23	IF Odd	W 3-0	1197	1241	53.6%	16.2%	30.2%	+19.5	7
1965-05-23	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-3	1241	1197	30.2%	16.2%	53.6%	-19.5	3
1965-05-23	Steinkjer	W 2-0	1124	1240	43.9%	16.2%	39.8%	+17.0	8
1965-05-23	@ Viking	L 0-2	1240	1124	39.8%	16.2%	43.9%	-17.0	9
1965-05-24	Skeid	W 1-0	1216	1218	58.6%	16.1%	25.3%	+6.1	11
1965-05-24	@ Valerenga	L 0-1	1218	1216	25.3%	16.1%	58.6%	-6.1	7
1965-05-27	Frigg Oslo	W 2-0	1221	1123	68.4%	15.7%	15.9%	+7.5	6
1965-05-27	@ IF Odd	L 0-2	1123	1221	15.9%	15.7%	68.4%	-7.5	3
1965-05-30	Viking	W 3-1	1306	1141	73.2%	15.3%	11.5%	+4.8	13
1965-05-30	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	1141	1306	11.5%	15.3%	73.2%	-4.8	8
1965-05-30	Skeid	L 0-1	1229	1212	60.7%	16.1%	23.2%	-13.2	6
1965-05-30	@ IF Odd	W 1-0	1212	1229	23.2%	16.1%	60.7%	+13.2	10
1965-05-30	Sandefjord	W 3-0	1217	1065	72.3%	15.4%	12.3%	+8.5	10
1965-05-30	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-3	1065	1217	12.3%	15.4%	72.3%	-8.5	0
1965-05-30	Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1223	1295	49.9%	16.2%	33.9%	-10.3	9
1965-05-30	@ Steinkjer	W 2-1	1295	1223	33.9%	16.2%	49.9%	+10.3	12
1965-06-01	Valerenga	L 1-2	1116	1222	45.3%	16.2%	38.5%	-9.5	3
1965-06-01	@ Frigg Oslo	W 2-1	1222	1116	38.5%	16.2%	45.3%	+9.5	14
1965-06-04	Sarpsborg	L 1-3	1225	1225	58.8%	16.1%	25.1%	-20.9	10
1965-06-04	@ Skeid	W 3-1	1225	1225	25.1%	16.1%	58.8%	+20.9	13
1965-06-07	Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	1305	1311	58.2%	16.1%	25.7%	-1.2	13
1965-06-07	@ Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1311	1305	25.7%	16.1%	58.2%	+1.2	14
1965-06-07	Steinkjer	D 1-1	1057	1213	38.3%	16.2%	45.6%	+0.4	1
1965-06-07	@ Sandefjord	D 1-1	1213	1057	45.6%	16.2%	38.3%	-0.3	10
1965-06-07	IF Odd	W 3-2	1231	1216	60.5%	16.1%	23.4%	+5.1	17
1965-06-07	@ Valerenga	L 2-3	1216	1231	23.4%	16.1%	60.5%	-5.1	6
1965-06-07	Frigg Oslo	D 2-2	1137	1106	62.1%	16.0%	21.9%	-1.6	9
1965-06-07	@ Viking	D 2-2	1106	1137	21.9%	16.0%	62.1%	+1.6	4
1965-06-11	Sandefjord	W 5-1	1312	1057	78.2%	14.5%	7.3%	+5.5	17
1965-06-11	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-5	1057	1312	7.3%	14.5%	78.2%	-5.5	1
1965-06-12	Skeid	W 2-1	1212	1204	59.7%	16.1%	24.2%	+5.5	13
1965-06-12	@ Steinkjer	L 1-2	1204	1212	24.2%	16.1%	59.7%	-5.5	10
1965-06-13	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1108	1304	32.8%	16.1%	51.1%	+11.2	7
1965-06-13	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	1304	1108	51.1%	16.1%	32.8%	-11.2	13
1965-06-13	Viking	W 2-0	1211	1135	66.4%	15.8%	17.8%	+8.3	9
1965-06-13	@ IF Odd	L 0-2	1135	1211	17.8%	15.8%	66.4%	-8.3	9
1965-06-13	Valerenga	W 2-1	1246	1236	59.9%	16.1%	24.0%	+5.5	16
1965-06-13	@ Sarpsborg	L 1-2	1236	1246	24.0%	16.1%	59.9%	-5.5	17
1965-06-18	Steinkjer	W 5-1	1231	1218	60.2%	16.1%	23.7%	+17.1	20
1965-06-18	@ Valerenga	L 1-5	1218	1231	23.7%	16.1%	60.2%	-17.1	13
1965-06-20	IF Odd	W 2-1	1293	1219	66.3%	15.8%	17.9%	+4.2	16
1965-06-20	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1219	1293	17.9%	15.8%	66.3%	-4.2	9
1965-06-20	Frigg Oslo	D 2-2	1052	1119	50.6%	16.2%	33.2%	-0.7	2
1965-06-20	@ Sandefjord	D 2-2	1119	1052	33.2%	16.2%	50.6%	+0.7	8
1965-06-20	Lyn Oslo	L 1-5	1199	1317	43.5%	16.2%	40.3%	-29.0	10
1965-06-20	@ Skeid	W 5-1	1317	1199	40.3%	16.2%	43.5%	+29.0	20
1965-06-20	Sarpsborg	L 0-2	1127	1252	42.6%	16.2%	41.2%	-18.0	9
1965-06-20	@ Viking	W 2-0	1252	1127	41.2%	16.2%	42.6%	+18.0	19
1965-07-30	Fredrikstad	W 4-1	1248	1297	52.9%	16.2%	30.9%	+16.8	23
1965-07-30	@ Valerenga	L 1-4	1297	1248	30.9%	16.2%	52.9%	-16.8	16
1965-08-01	Viking	L 1-3	1051	1109	51.8%	16.2%	31.9%	-18.5	2
1965-08-01	@ Sandefjord	W 3-1	1109	1051	31.9%	16.2%	51.8%	+18.5	12
1965-08-01	Lyn Oslo	W 3-0	1270	1346	49.3%	16.2%	34.5%	+21.9	22
1965-08-01	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-3	1346	1270	34.5%	16.2%	49.3%	-21.8	20
1965-08-01	IF Odd	W 5-0	1201	1215	57.2%	16.2%	26.7%	+28.2	16
1965-08-01	@ Steinkjer	L 0-5	1215	1201	26.7%	16.2%	57.2%	-28.2	9
1965-08-03	Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	1170	1119	64.0%	16.0%	20.0%	-13.9	10
1965-08-03	@ Skeid	W 1-0	1119	1170	20.0%	16.0%	64.0%	+13.9	11
1965-08-04	Lyn Oslo	L 1-8	1033	1324	21.9%	15.6%	62.5%	-26.5	2
1965-08-04	@ Sandefjord	W 8-1	1324	1033	62.5%	15.6%	21.9%	+26.5	23
1965-08-12	Sarpsborg	D 3-3	1133	1291	37.9%	16.2%	45.9%	+0.2	12
1965-08-12	@ Frigg Oslo	D 3-3	1291	1133	45.9%	16.2%	37.9%	-0.2	23
1965-08-13	Skeid	W 7-3	1280	1156	70.4%	15.6%	14.0%	+8.1	19
1965-08-13	@ Fredrikstad	L 3-7	1156	1280	14.0%	15.6%	70.4%	-8.2	10
1965-08-14	Sandefjord	W 5-1	1187	1006	74.2%	15.2%	10.6%	+8.0	12
1965-08-14	@ IF Odd	L 1-5	1006	1187	10.6%	15.2%	74.2%	-8.0	2
1965-08-15	Steinkjer	L 2-3	1351	1229	70.2%	15.6%	14.2%	-13.6	23
1965-08-15	@ Lyn Oslo	W 3-2	1229	1351	14.2%	15.6%	70.2%	+13.6	19
1965-08-15	Valerenga	L 0-1	1127	1265	40.8%	16.2%	43.0%	-9.2	12
1965-08-15	@ Viking	W 1-0	1265	1127	43.0%	16.2%	40.8%	+9.2	26
1965-08-17	Sarpsborg	W 6-0	1289	1291	58.5%	16.1%	25.4%	+32.0	22
1965-08-17	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-6	1291	1289	25.4%	16.1%	58.5%	-32.0	23
1965-08-18	Lyn Oslo	W 3-2	1195	1337	40.1%	16.2%	43.7%	+8.7	15
1965-08-18	@ IF Odd	L 2-3	1337	1195	43.7%	16.2%	40.1%	-8.7	23
1965-08-18	Viking	W 4-0	1148	1118	62.0%	16.0%	22.0%	+19.2	13
1965-08-18	@ Skeid	L 0-4	1118	1148	22.0%	16.0%	62.0%	-19.2	12
1965-08-18	Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	1242	1134	69.2%	15.7%	15.1%	-3.2	20
1965-08-18	@ Steinkjer	D 0-0	1134	1242	15.1%	15.7%	69.2%	+3.2	13
1965-08-19	Sandefjord	W 3-1	1274	998	79.2%	14.3%	6.5%	+2.7	29
1965-08-19	@ Valerenga	L 1-3	998	1274	6.5%	14.3%	79.2%	-2.7	2
1965-08-26	Lyn Oslo	L 1-7	1277	1329	52.5%	16.2%	31.2%	-49.7	29
1965-08-26	@ Valerenga	W 7-1	1329	1277	31.2%	16.2%	52.5%	+49.6	26
1965-08-28	Fredrikstad	W 3-0	1099	1321	29.6%	16.0%	54.4%	+32.4	15
1965-08-28	@ Viking	L 0-3	1321	1099	54.4%	16.0%	29.6%	-32.4	22
1965-08-29	IF Odd	D 1-1	1137	1203	50.7%	16.2%	33.1%	-0.9	14
1965-08-29	@ Frigg Oslo	D 1-1	1203	1137	33.1%	16.2%	50.7%	+0.9	16
1965-08-29	Skeid	L 0-2	995	1167	36.1%	16.1%	47.8%	-15.6	2
1965-08-29	@ Sandefjord	W 2-0	1167	995	47.8%	16.1%	36.1%	+15.6	16
1965-08-29	Steinkjer	W 2-1	1259	1239	61.0%	16.1%	22.9%	+5.3	26
1965-08-29	@ Sarpsborg	L 1-2	1239	1259	22.9%	16.1%	61.0%	-5.3	20
1965-09-03	Valerenga	W 1-0	1182	1227	53.5%	16.2%	30.3%	+7.1	19
1965-09-03	@ Skeid	L 0-1	1227	1182	30.3%	16.2%	53.5%	-7.1	29
1965-09-04	Sandefjord	W 3-0	1288	980	80.5%	14.0%	5.5%	+3.8	25
1965-09-04	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-3	980	1288	5.5%	14.0%	80.5%	-3.8	2
1965-09-05	Frigg Oslo	W 4-0	1378	1136	77.6%	14.6%	7.8%	+7.1	29
1965-09-05	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-4	1136	1378	7.8%	14.6%	77.6%	-7.1	14
1965-09-05	Sarpsborg	D 1-1	1204	1264	51.5%	16.2%	32.3%	-1.0	17
1965-09-05	@ IF Odd	D 1-1	1264	1204	32.3%	16.2%	51.5%	+1.0	27
1965-09-05	Viking	W 3-1	1234	1131	68.7%	15.7%	15.6%	+6.4	23
1965-09-05	@ Steinkjer	L 1-3	1131	1234	15.6%	15.7%	68.7%	-6.4	15
1965-09-08	IF Odd	W 3-2	1125	1203	49.1%	16.2%	34.7%	+7.2	18
1965-09-08	@ Viking	L 2-3	1203	1125	34.7%	16.2%	49.1%	-7.2	17
1965-09-09	Sarpsborg	W 3-2	1220	1265	53.3%	16.2%	30.4%	+6.4	32
1965-09-09	@ Valerenga	L 2-3	1265	1220	30.4%	16.2%	53.3%	-6.4	27
1965-09-19	Viking	W 2-1	1129	1132	58.5%	16.1%	25.4%	+5.8	17
1965-09-19	@ Frigg Oslo	L 1-2	1132	1129	25.4%	16.1%	58.5%	-5.8	18
1965-09-19	Valerenga	L 1-2	1196	1226	55.3%	16.2%	28.5%	-11.4	17
1965-09-19	@ IF Odd	W 2-1	1226	1196	28.5%	16.2%	55.3%	+11.4	35
1965-09-19	Skeid	L 1-2	1259	1190	65.9%	15.9%	18.3%	-13.5	27
1965-09-19	@ Sarpsborg	W 2-1	1190	1259	18.3%	15.9%	65.9%	+13.5	22
1965-09-19	Sandefjord	W 2-0	1240	976	78.7%	14.4%	6.9%	+3.3	26
1965-09-19	@ Steinkjer	L 0-2	976	1240	6.9%	14.4%	78.7%	-3.3	2
1965-09-21	Fredrikstad	W 3-1	1385	1292	68.0%	15.7%	16.3%	+6.7	32
1965-09-21	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	1292	1385	16.3%	15.7%	68.0%	-6.7	25
1965-09-22	Steinkjer	W 1-0	1203	1244	54.0%	16.2%	29.8%	+7.0	25
1965-09-22	@ Skeid	L 0-1	1244	1203	29.8%	16.2%	54.0%	-7.0	26
1965-09-29	Frigg Oslo	W 4-3	1285	1135	72.3%	15.4%	12.3%	+2.7	28
1965-09-29	@ Fredrikstad	L 3-4	1135	1285	12.3%	15.4%	72.3%	-2.7	17
1965-10-03	Steinkjer	L 0-1	1288	1237	64.2%	15.9%	19.9%	-13.9	28
1965-10-03	@ Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1237	1288	19.9%	15.9%	64.2%	+13.9	29
1965-10-03	Sarpsborg	L 2-4	972	1246	23.8%	15.7%	60.5%	-8.4	2
1965-10-03	@ Sandefjord	W 4-2	1246	972	60.5%	15.7%	23.8%	+8.4	30
1965-10-03	IF Odd	L 3-4	1210	1185	61.5%	16.0%	22.4%	-11.7	25
1965-10-03	@ Skeid	W 4-3	1185	1210	22.4%	16.0%	61.5%	+11.7	20
1965-10-03	Frigg Oslo	W 3-2	1238	1132	69.0%	15.7%	15.4%	+3.4	38
1965-10-03	@ Valerenga	L 2-3	1132	1238	15.4%	15.7%	69.0%	-3.5	17
1965-10-03	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1126	1392	24.6%	15.8%	59.6%	-11.1	18
1965-10-03	@ Viking	W 2-0	1392	1126	59.6%	15.8%	24.6%	+11.1	35
1965-10-10	Sandefjord	W 3-0	1128	964	73.2%	15.3%	11.5%	+8.0	20
1965-10-10	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-3	964	1128	11.5%	15.3%	73.2%	-8.0	2
1965-10-10	Skeid	W 2-1	1403	1198	75.6%	15.0%	9.4%	+2.3	38
1965-10-10	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	1198	1403	9.4%	15.0%	75.6%	-2.2	25
1965-10-10	Fredrikstad	W 4-0	1196	1274	49.2%	16.2%	34.6%	+28.6	23
1965-10-10	@ IF Odd	L 0-4	1274	1196	34.6%	16.2%	49.2%	-28.6	28
1965-10-10	Viking	W 1-0	1254	1115	71.5%	15.5%	13.1%	+3.3	33
1965-10-10	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1115	1254	13.1%	15.5%	71.5%	-3.3	18
1965-10-10	Valerenga	D 0-0	1250	1241	59.8%	16.1%	24.1%	-2.1	30
1965-10-10	@ Steinkjer	D 0-0	1241	1250	24.1%	16.1%	59.8%	+2.1	39

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1965-08-15	14.18%	Steinkjer	1229	3	@ Lyn Oslo	1351	2
2	1965-09-19	18.28%	Skeid	1190	2	@ Sarpsborg	1259	1
3	1965-04-25	18.50%	Steinkjer	1215	2	@ IF Odd	1282	0
4	1965-10-03	19.89%	Steinkjer	1237	1	@ Fredrikstad	1288	0
5	1965-08-03	20.01%	Frigg Oslo	1119	1	@ Skeid	1170	0
6	1965-10-03	22.42%	IF Odd	1185	4	@ Skeid	1210	3
7	1965-05-30	23.25%	Skeid	1212	1	@ IF Odd	1229	0
8	1965-06-04	25.12%	Sarpsborg	1225	3	@ Skeid	1225	1
9	1965-04-30	26.42%	Fredrikstad	1236	3	@ Skeid	1224	2
10	1965-05-02	28.08%	Lyn Oslo	1268	4	@ Steinkjer	1242	1
11	1965-04-23	28.27%	Skeid	1191	3	@ Frigg Oslo	1164	0
12	1965-09-19	28.55%	Valerenga	1226	2	@ IF Odd	1196	1
13	1965-08-28	29.64%	@ Viking	1099	3	Fredrikstad	1321	0
14	1965-05-09	31.20%	Valerenga	1192	2	@ Sandefjord	1140	0
15	1965-08-26	31.24%	Lyn Oslo	1329	7	@ Valerenga	1277	1
16	1965-05-23	31.65%	@ Frigg Oslo	1112	1	Lyn Oslo	1317	0
17	1965-08-01	31.95%	Viking	1109	3	@ Sandefjord	1051	1
18	1965-06-13	32.80%	@ Frigg Oslo	1108	1	Fredrikstad	1304	0
19	1965-05-30	33.86%	Fredrikstad	1295	2	@ Steinkjer	1223	1
20	1965-05-09	36.46%	Steinkjer	1214	1	@ Frigg Oslo	1122	0
21	1965-05-02	38.35%	IF Odd	1255	2	@ Sandefjord	1150	1
22	1965-06-01	38.51%	Valerenga	1222	2	@ Frigg Oslo	1116	1
23	1965-08-18	40.09%	@ IF Odd	1195	3	Lyn Oslo	1337	2
24	1965-06-20	40.28%	Lyn Oslo	1317	5	@ Skeid	1199	1
25	1965-06-20	41.17%	Sarpsborg	1252	2	@ Viking	1127	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1965-08-26	49.65	Lyn Oslo	7	1329	31.24%	@ Valerenga	1	1277	52.54%
2	1965-05-23	49.08	Fredrikstad	6	1246	42.11%	@ Sandefjord	0	1114	41.68%
3	1965-04-23	33.15	Skeid	3	1191	28.27%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1164	55.55%
4	1965-08-28	32.43	@ Viking	3	1099	29.64%	Fredrikstad	0	1321	54.40%
5	1965-08-17	32.00	@ Fredrikstad	6	1289	58.49%	Sarpsborg	0	1291	25.38%
6	1965-06-20	28.97	Lyn Oslo	5	1317	40.28%	@ Skeid	1	1199	43.50%
7	1965-10-10	28.64	@ IF Odd	4	1196	49.18%	Fredrikstad	0	1274	34.58%
8	1965-08-01	28.16	@ Steinkjer	5	1201	57.17%	IF Odd	0	1215	26.68%
9	1965-05-02	28.05	Lyn Oslo	4	1268	28.08%	@ Steinkjer	1	1242	55.74%
10	1965-04-25	26.86	Steinkjer	2	1215	18.50%	@ IF Odd	0	1282	65.63%
11	1965-08-04	26.53	Lyn Oslo	8	1324	62.48%	@ Sandefjord	1	1033	21.93%
12	1965-05-07	23.49	@ Lyn Oslo	5	1296	62.18%	IF Odd	0	1264	21.79%
13	1965-08-01	21.85	@ Sarpsborg	3	1270	49.31%	Lyn Oslo	0	1346	34.46%
14	1965-05-09	21.69	Valerenga	2	1192	31.20%	@ Sandefjord	0	1140	52.58%
15	1965-06-04	20.86	Sarpsborg	3	1225	25.12%	@ Skeid	1	1225	58.76%
16	1965-05-23	19.50	@ Sarpsborg	3	1197	53.60%	IF Odd	0	1241	30.19%
17	1965-08-18	19.21	@ Skeid	4	1148	61.99%	Viking	0	1118	21.98%
18	1965-05-02	19.01	@ Valerenga	4	1173	62.25%	Viking	0	1141	21.73%
19	1965-08-01	18.53	Viking	3	1109	31.95%	@ Sandefjord	1	1051	51.82%
20	1965-06-20	18.01	Sarpsborg	2	1252	41.17%	@ Viking	0	1127	42.62%
21	1965-06-18	17.11	@ Valerenga	5	1231	60.25%	Steinkjer	1	1218	23.67%
22	1965-05-23	17.01	@ Viking	2	1124	43.94%	Steinkjer	0	1240	39.83%
23	1965-07-30	16.77	@ Valerenga	4	1248	52.90%	Fredrikstad	1	1297	30.89%
24	1965-05-16	15.86	@ Steinkjer	3	1224	60.00%	Sarpsborg	0	1213	23.91%
25	1965-08-29	15.64	Skeid	2	1167	47.77%	@ Sandefjord	0	995	36.11%