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1965 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Valerenga

27 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Sandefjord

2 pts

Viking · 13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Valerenga

7.08 points above expected

27 points · 19.92 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Sandefjord

8.61 points below expected

2 points · 10.61 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Valerenga Champion 18 12 3 3 27 39 25 +14 19.92 +7.08
2 Lyn Oslo 18 12 2 4 26 57 22 +35 24.16 +1.84
3 Sarpsborg 18 10 3 5 23 32 24 +8 20.28 +2.72
4 Steinkjer 18 9 3 6 21 27 21 +6 19.63 +1.37
5 Fredrikstad 18 8 4 6 20 40 31 +9 21.75 -1.75
6 Skeid 18 8 1 9 17 28 30 -2 18.42 -1.42
7 IF Odd 18 7 2 9 16 30 35 -5 17.21 -1.21
8 Frigg Oslo 18 5 5 8 15 22 30 -8 13.89 +1.11
9 Viking Relegated 18 5 3 10 13 20 32 -12 14.13 -1.13
10 Sandefjord Relegated 18 0 2 16 2 12 57 -45 10.61 -8.61

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Valerenga 27 19.92 +7.08
2 Sarpsborg 23 20.28 +2.72
3 Lyn Oslo 26 24.16 +1.84
4 Steinkjer 21 19.63 +1.37
5 Frigg Oslo 15 13.89 +1.11

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Sandefjord 2 10.61 -8.61
2 Fredrikstad 20 21.75 -1.75
3 Skeid 17 18.42 -1.42
4 IF Odd 16 17.21 -1.21
5 Viking 13 14.13 -1.13

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 6 May 23 – Aug 1 1 in 87
2 Skeid 5 Aug 18 – Sep 22 1 in 71
3 Lyn Oslo 5 Aug 26 – Oct 10 1 in 14
4 Valerenga 4 Jun 18 – Aug 19 1 in 7
5 Fredrikstad 2 May 23 – May 30 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 5 Jun 4 – Aug 13 1 in 114
2 Sandefjord 9 Aug 1 – Oct 10 1 in 37
3 Lyn Oslo 2 Aug 15 – Aug 18 1 in 22
4 Frigg Oslo 3 Apr 23 – May 9 1 in 13
5 Sarpsborg 2 Sep 9 – Sep 19 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Frigg Oslo 7 Jun 7 – Aug 29 1 in 356
2 Valerenga 7 Apr 25 – Jun 7 1 in 55
3 Fredrikstad 7 Apr 25 – Jun 7 1 in 33
4 Sarpsborg 7 May 23 – Aug 12 1 in 20
5 Skeid 5 Aug 18 – Sep 22 1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sandefjord 18 Apr 25 – Oct 10 1 in 154
2 Skeid 5 Jun 4 – Aug 13 1 in 17
3 IF Odd 4 Aug 29 – Sep 19 1 in 8
4 Steinkjer 3 May 23 – Jun 7 1 in 8
5 Lyn Oslo 2 May 14 – May 23 1 in 7

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Valerenga 1252 27 +22 7 5.1 +1.9
Lyn Oslo 1443 26 +118 10 7.1 +2.9
Sarpsborg 1255 23 -16 5 6.3 -1.3
Steinkjer 1260 21 +19 7 6.0 +1.0
Fredrikstad 1218 20 -71 4 6.2 -2.2
Skeid 1186 17 +23 6 4.6 +1.4
IF Odd 1209 16 +41 5 4.6 +0.4
Frigg Oslo 1119 15 +1 4 4.1 -0.1
Viking 1097 13 -28 2 3.3 -1.3
Sandefjord 878 2 -47 0 2.0 -2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FRE FO IO LO SAN SAR SKE STE VAL VIK
Fredrikstad —
1-0-1
4.22
1-0-1
3.56
0-1-1
2.52
2-0-0
4.10
1-1-0
2.87
2-0-0
3.21
1-0-1
3.26
0-1-1
3.11
0-1-1
4.25
Frigg Oslo
1-0-1
1.46
 —
0-1-1
2.42
1-0-1
1.27
1-1-0
3.71
0-1-1
1.78
1-0-1
2.60
0-1-1
1.95
0-0-2
1.86
1-1-0
2.59
IF Odd
1-0-1
2.12
1-1-0
3.26
 —
1-0-1
1.93
2-0-0
3.68
0-1-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.59
0-0-2
2.92
0-0-2
2.35
1-0-1
3.15
Lyn Oslo
1-1-0
3.15
1-0-1
4.41
1-0-1
3.75
 —
2-0-0
4.75
1-0-1
3.29
2-0-0
3.92
1-0-1
3.12
1-1-0
3.16
2-0-0
4.43
Sandefjord
0-0-2
1.58
0-1-1
1.97
0-0-2
2.00
0-0-2
0.93
 —
0-0-2
1.12
0-0-2
1.64
0-1-1
1.36
0-0-2
1.89
0-0-2
2.55
Sarpsborg
0-1-1
2.80
1-1-0
3.90
1-1-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.38
2-0-0
4.56
 —
1-0-1
3.05
1-0-1
2.76
1-0-1
2.99
2-0-0
3.78
Skeid
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
3.07
1-0-1
3.08
0-0-2
1.76
2-0-0
4.04
1-0-1
2.63
 —
1-0-1
2.58
1-0-1
2.54
1-1-0
3.26
Steinkjer
1-0-1
2.41
1-1-0
3.72
2-0-0
2.75
1-0-1
2.55
1-1-0
4.32
1-0-1
2.91
1-0-1
3.09
 —
0-1-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.73
Valerenga
1-1-0
2.57
2-0-0
3.81
2-0-0
3.32
0-1-1
2.51
2-0-0
3.80
1-0-1
2.68
1-0-1
3.13
1-1-0
2.89
 —
2-0-0
3.68
Viking
1-1-0
1.42
0-1-1
3.08
1-0-1
2.52
0-0-2
1.25
2-0-0
3.12
0-0-2
1.89
0-1-1
2.41
1-0-1
1.94
0-0-2
2.00
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.69 +4.8
Allowed 0.83 -6.4
Differential 0.91 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
03.33%7.22%5.56%4.44%2.22%2.22%25.00%
17.22%5.56%6.67%3.33%1.11%3.33%27.22%
25.56%6.67%5.56%3.89%0.56%—22.22%
34.44%3.33%3.89%1.11%1.11%0.56%14.44%
42.22%1.11%0.56%1.11%——5.00%
5+2.22%3.33%—0.56%——6.11%
Total25.00%27.22%22.22%14.44%5.00%6.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.71 1.71 +0.00
SD 1.58 1.58 2.46
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%—27.78%
1—5.56%—5.56%5.56%—16.67%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+11.11%——5.56%——16.67%
Total22.22%27.78%16.67%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.72 +0.50
SD 2.24 1.36 2.83
CV 1.01 0.79 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
116.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
2—5.56%11.11%5.56%——22.22%
35.56%——5.56%5.56%—16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%16.67%27.78%16.67%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.67 -0.44
SD 1.11 1.37 1.65
CV 0.91 0.82 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%5.56%—11.11%27.78%
1—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
211.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%22.22%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.94 -0.28
SD 1.53 1.51 2.54
CV 0.92 0.78 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
15.56%—————5.56%
25.56%5.56%11.11%11.11%——33.33%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%22.22%————27.78%
Total22.22%50.00%11.11%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.17 1.22 +1.94
SD 2.20 1.00 2.71
CV 0.70 0.82 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%16.67%16.67%—5.56%44.44%
1—5.56%11.11%11.11%—16.67%44.44%
2——5.56%—5.56%—11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—11.11%33.33%27.78%5.56%22.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 3.17 -2.50
SD 0.69 1.82 1.86
CV 1.03 0.58 —
Max 2 8 +0
Min 0 1 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
15.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
211.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
316.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%27.78%11.11%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.33 +0.44
SD 1.26 1.61 2.31
CV 0.71 1.21 —
Max 4 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%————11.11%
122.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%50.00%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
35.56%———5.56%5.56%16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total38.89%22.22%11.11%11.11%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.67 -0.11
SD 1.10 2.03 2.11
CV 0.70 1.22 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%5.56%11.11%—5.56%5.56%38.89%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total44.44%22.22%22.22%—5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.17 +0.33
SD 1.34 1.47 2.17
CV 0.89 1.26 —
Max 5 5 +5
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%—5.56%——5.56%22.22%
25.56%11.11%11.11%———27.78%
3—5.56%16.67%———22.22%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total27.78%33.33%33.33%——5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.39 +0.78
SD 1.38 1.61 2.21
CV 0.64 1.16 —
Max 5 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%16.67%—11.11%—38.89%
1—11.11%5.56%11.11%——27.78%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
35.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%33.33%11.11%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.78 -0.67
SD 1.13 1.17 1.97
CV 1.02 0.66 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Lyn Oslo 1443 26 24.16 +1.84 73.0% 16 19 22 24 27 29 30
Steinkjer 1260 21 19.63 +1.37 75.0% 11 14 18 20 21 25 28
Sarpsborg 1255 23 20.28 +2.72 85.0% 13 15 18 20 22 25 28
Valerenga 1252 27 19.92 +7.08 97.0% 12 13 18 20 22 27 29
Fredrikstad 1218 20 21.75 -1.75 34.0% 11 16 19 22 24 27 30
IF Odd 1209 16 17.21 -1.21 43.0% 10 11 15 17 19 22 27
Skeid 1186 17 18.42 -1.42 40.0% 6 13 16 18 21 25 27
Frigg Oslo 1119 15 13.89 +1.11 66.0% 3 8 11 14 16 19 21
Viking 1097 13 14.13 -1.13 41.0% 6 9 12 14 16 20 21
Sandefjord 878 2 10.61 -8.61 0.0% 3 5 8 10 13 17 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+24.44%
Strong Edge
54.44%15.56%30.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge
148 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
086.68400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.59 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.59+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.2
Top-Heavy
134610
Champion Preseason Odds
13%
Valerenga, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.73 * Some Luck: 2.73 to 4.09 * Lucky: 4.09 to 5.46 * Wild Swing: 5.46 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.22 * Close: 1.22 to 1.83 * Off: 1.83 to 2.44 * Way Off: 2.44 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.74 * A Surprise: 0.74 to 1.18 * Several Surprises: 1.18 to 1.63 * Many Surprises: 1.63 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.82 points
Some Luck
03.419
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.534
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
Valerenga
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
0.00%
Sandefjord
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
00.72

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.21
Lopsided
00.140.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 144.98
1.87
Wide Separation
0.91.351.551.752.5
Interquartile Edge
66%
Clear Edge
50%61.5%69.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
96%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
53%
Few
0%46%100%
Blowouts
Expected
28%
Very Frequent
0%31%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.53
Highly Predictable
00.532
Matchup Imbalance
0.44
Lopsided
00.320.380.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.16
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Strong Carryover
00.280.481
Upset Rate
Expected
24%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.85
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.05
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.120
Well Within Noise
00.1580.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Valerenga13.00%10.00%18.00%16.00%15.00%8.00%7.00%9.00%4.00%—
Lyn Oslo51.00%22.00%16.00%6.00%1.00%2.00%2.00%———
Sarpsborg9.00%11.00%17.00%19.00%13.00%18.00%6.00%6.00%1.00%—
Steinkjer6.00%14.00%12.00%23.00%18.00%11.00%10.00%3.00%3.00%—
Fredrikstad14.00%30.00%21.00%9.00%10.00%8.00%4.00%2.00%2.00%—
Skeid6.00%9.00%6.00%13.00%17.00%14.00%19.00%9.00%6.00%1.00%
IF Odd1.00%4.00%8.00%9.00%11.00%20.00%16.00%17.00%11.00%3.00%
Frigg Oslo——1.00%2.00%7.00%8.00%15.00%24.00%27.00%16.00%
Viking——1.00%2.00%7.00%8.00%15.00%23.00%27.00%17.00%
Sandefjord———1.00%1.00%3.00%6.00%7.00%19.00%63.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo 100% —
Sarpsborg 99.00% 1.00%
Fredrikstad 98.00% 2.00%
Steinkjer 97.00% 3.00%
Valerenga 96.00% 4.00%
Skeid 93.00% 7.00%
IF Odd 86.00% 14.00%
Frigg Oslo 57.00% 43.00%
Viking 56.00% 44.00%
Sandefjord 18.00% 82.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1965-04-23 Skeid L 0-340.7 1153 1177 55.88% 16.47% 27.64%+0.43 -51.7 0
1965-04-23 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-040.7 1177 1153 27.64% 16.47% 55.88%-0.43 +51.7 2
1965-04-25 Valerenga D 2-259.7 1220 1165 64.22% 16.37% 19.41%+0.96 -2.7 1
1965-04-25 @ Fredrikstad D 2-259.7 1165 1220 19.41% 16.37% 64.22%-0.96 +2.7 1
1965-04-25 Sarpsborg W 1-034.8 1243 1194 63.61% 16.38% 20.01%+0.92 +7.7 2
1965-04-25 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-134.8 1194 1243 20.01% 16.38% 63.61%-0.92 -7.7 0
1965-04-25 Steinkjer L 0-245.3 1270 1228 63.02% 16.39% 20.58%+0.87 -40.0 0
1965-04-25 @ IF Odd W 2-045.3 1228 1270 20.58% 16.39% 63.02%-0.87 +40.0 2
1965-04-25 Sandefjord W 2-141.1 1126 1143 56.62% 16.47% 26.91%+0.47 +9.4 2
1965-04-25 @ Viking L 1-241.1 1143 1126 26.91% 16.47% 56.62%-0.47 -9.4 0
1965-04-30 Fredrikstad L 2-356.0 1228 1218 59.77% 16.44% 23.79%+0.66 -18.0 2
1965-04-30 @ Skeid W 3-256.0 1218 1228 23.79% 16.44% 59.77%-0.66 +18.0 3
1965-05-02 IF Odd L 1-247.1 1134 1230 46.48% 16.50% 37.02%-0.07 -15.0 0
1965-05-02 @ Sandefjord W 2-147.1 1230 1134 37.02% 16.50% 46.48%+0.07 +15.0 2
1965-05-02 Frigg Oslo W 2-031.0 1187 1101 66.93% 16.31% 16.76%+1.17 +12.3 2
1965-05-02 @ Sarpsborg L 0-231.0 1101 1187 16.76% 16.31% 66.93%-1.17 -12.3 0
1965-05-02 Lyn Oslo L 1-447.3 1268 1250 60.51% 16.43% 23.06%+0.71 -47.1 2
1965-05-02 @ Steinkjer W 4-147.3 1250 1268 23.06% 16.43% 60.51%-0.71 +47.1 4
1965-05-02 Viking W 4-029.2 1168 1135 62.12% 16.41% 21.48%+0.81 +29.3 3
1965-05-02 @ Valerenga L 0-429.2 1135 1168 21.48% 16.41% 62.12%-0.81 -29.3 2
1965-05-07 IF Odd W 5-028.9 1297 1245 63.98% 16.37% 19.65%+0.94 +33.3 6
1965-05-07 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-528.9 1245 1297 19.65% 16.37% 63.98%-0.94 -33.3 2
1965-05-09 Steinkjer L 0-141.1 1089 1221 41.47% 16.49% 42.04%-0.31 -14.5 0
1965-05-09 @ Frigg Oslo W 1-041.1 1221 1089 42.04% 16.49% 41.47%+0.31 +14.5 4
1965-05-09 Valerenga L 0-240.7 1119 1197 48.89% 16.50% 34.62%+0.05 -31.4 0
1965-05-09 @ Sandefjord W 2-040.7 1197 1119 34.62% 16.50% 48.89%-0.05 +31.4 5
1965-05-09 Fredrikstad D 0-051.3 1199 1236 54.31% 16.48% 29.20%+0.34 -2.2 3
1965-05-09 @ Sarpsborg D 0-051.3 1236 1199 29.20% 16.48% 54.31%-0.34 +2.2 4
1965-05-09 Skeid D 1-154.7 1106 1210 45.39% 16.50% 38.11%-0.12 -0.5 3
1965-05-09 @ Viking D 1-154.7 1210 1106 38.11% 16.50% 45.39%+0.12 +0.5 3
1965-05-14 Valerenga D 2-260.3 1331 1229 68.26% 16.27% 15.47%+1.28 -3.3 7
1965-05-14 @ Lyn Oslo D 2-260.3 1229 1331 15.47% 16.27% 68.26%-1.28 +3.3 6
1965-05-16 Viking D 1-154.8 1238 1105 70.53% 16.19% 13.28%+1.49 -4.8 5
1965-05-16 @ Fredrikstad D 1-154.8 1105 1238 13.28% 16.19% 70.53%-1.49 +4.8 4
1965-05-16 Sandefjord W 1-032.7 1211 1087 69.90% 16.21% 13.89%+1.43 +5.5 5
1965-05-16 @ Skeid L 0-132.7 1087 1211 13.89% 16.21% 69.90%-1.43 -5.5 0
1965-05-16 Sarpsborg W 3-030.3 1235 1197 62.66% 16.40% 20.94%+0.85 +21.9 6
1965-05-16 @ Steinkjer L 0-330.3 1197 1235 20.94% 16.40% 62.66%-0.85 -21.9 3
1965-05-23 Lyn Oslo W 1-046.1 1074 1327 25.78% 16.32% 57.90%-1.13 +19.5 2
1965-05-23 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-146.1 1327 1074 57.90% 16.32% 25.78%+1.13 -19.5 7
1965-05-23 Fredrikstad L 0-634.5 1082 1233 38.73% 16.47% 44.79%-0.44 -71.5 0
1965-05-23 @ Sandefjord W 6-034.5 1233 1082 44.79% 16.47% 38.73%+0.44 +71.5 7
1965-05-23 IF Odd W 3-032.8 1175 1212 54.26% 16.48% 29.26%+0.34 +29.4 5
1965-05-23 @ Sarpsborg L 0-332.8 1212 1175 29.26% 16.48% 54.26%-0.34 -29.4 2
1965-05-23 Steinkjer W 2-039.4 1110 1257 39.32% 16.48% 44.21%-0.41 +28.8 6
1965-05-23 @ Viking L 0-239.4 1257 1110 44.21% 16.48% 39.32%+0.41 -28.8 6
1965-05-24 Skeid W 1-035.8 1232 1216 60.34% 16.43% 23.23%+0.70 +8.8 8
1965-05-24 @ Valerenga L 0-135.8 1216 1232 23.23% 16.43% 60.34%-0.70 -8.8 5
1965-05-27 Frigg Oslo W 2-030.9 1182 1094 67.19% 16.30% 16.51%+1.19 +12.1 4
1965-05-27 @ IF Odd L 0-230.9 1094 1182 16.51% 16.30% 67.19%-1.19 -12.1 2
1965-05-30 Viking W 3-134.3 1308 1139 72.90% 16.08% 11.02%+1.73 +7.2 9
1965-05-30 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-334.3 1139 1308 11.02% 16.08% 72.90%-1.73 -7.2 6
1965-05-30 Skeid L 0-145.9 1195 1207 57.15% 16.46% 26.38%+0.50 -19.3 4
1965-05-30 @ IF Odd W 1-045.9 1207 1195 26.38% 16.46% 57.15%-0.50 +19.3 7
1965-05-30 Sandefjord W 3-026.6 1204 1010 74.32% 16.00% 9.69%+1.90 +10.7 7
1965-05-30 @ Sarpsborg L 0-326.6 1010 1204 9.69% 16.00% 74.32%-1.90 -10.7 0
1965-05-30 Fredrikstad L 1-248.3 1228 1305 49.25% 16.50% 34.25%+0.07 -15.8 6
1965-05-30 @ Steinkjer W 2-148.3 1305 1228 34.25% 16.50% 49.25%-0.07 +15.8 9
1965-06-01 Valerenga L 1-244.4 1082 1241 37.64% 16.46% 45.90%-0.49 -12.6 2
1965-06-01 @ Frigg Oslo W 2-144.4 1241 1082 45.90% 16.46% 37.64%+0.49 +12.6 10
1965-06-04 Sarpsborg L 1-349.1 1227 1215 59.90% 16.44% 23.67%+0.67 -33.0 7
1965-06-04 @ Skeid W 3-149.1 1215 1227 23.67% 16.44% 59.90%-0.67 +33.0 9
1965-06-07 Lyn Oslo D 2-260.7 1320 1315 59.18% 16.44% 24.37%+0.62 -2.1 10
1965-06-07 @ Fredrikstad D 2-260.7 1315 1320 24.37% 16.44% 59.18%-0.62 +2.1 10
1965-06-07 Steinkjer D 1-154.7 999 1213 30.51% 16.40% 53.09%-0.86 +1.8 1
1965-06-07 @ Sandefjord D 1-154.7 1213 999 53.09% 16.40% 30.51%+0.86 -1.8 7
1965-06-07 IF Odd W 3-243.2 1254 1175 66.31% 16.32% 17.36%+1.12 +6.0 12
1965-06-07 @ Valerenga L 2-343.2 1175 1254 17.36% 16.32% 66.31%-1.12 -6.0 4
1965-06-07 Frigg Oslo D 2-259.6 1132 1069 64.92% 16.35% 18.72%+1.01 -2.8 7
1965-06-07 @ Viking D 2-259.6 1069 1132 18.72% 16.35% 64.92%-1.01 +2.8 3
1965-06-11 Sandefjord W 5-128.3 1317 1001 79.44% 15.49% 5.08%+2.73 +6.2 12
1965-06-11 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-528.3 1001 1317 5.08% 15.49% 79.44%-2.73 -6.2 1
1965-06-12 Skeid W 2-140.1 1211 1194 60.46% 16.43% 23.11%+0.70 +8.2 9
1965-06-12 @ Steinkjer L 1-240.1 1194 1211 23.11% 16.43% 60.46%-0.70 -8.2 7
1965-06-13 Fredrikstad W 1-045.9 1072 1318 26.55% 16.33% 57.11%-1.08 +19.2 5
1965-06-13 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-145.9 1318 1072 57.11% 16.33% 26.55%+1.08 -19.2 10
1965-06-13 Viking W 2-032.2 1169 1129 62.85% 16.39% 20.76%+0.86 +15.0 6
1965-06-13 @ IF Odd L 0-232.2 1129 1169 20.76% 16.39% 62.85%-0.86 -15.0 7
1965-06-13 Valerenga W 2-141.3 1248 1260 57.29% 16.46% 26.25%+0.51 +9.2 11
1965-06-13 @ Sarpsborg L 1-241.3 1260 1248 26.25% 16.46% 57.29%-0.51 -9.2 12
1965-06-18 Steinkjer W 5-133.8 1250 1219 61.93% 16.41% 21.66%+0.80 +24.6 14
1965-06-18 @ Valerenga L 1-533.8 1219 1250 21.66% 16.41% 61.93%-0.80 -24.6 9
1965-06-20 IF Odd W 2-137.6 1299 1184 69.25% 16.24% 14.51%+1.37 +5.4 12
1965-06-20 @ Fredrikstad L 1-237.6 1184 1299 14.51% 16.24% 69.25%-1.37 -5.4 6
1965-06-20 Frigg Oslo D 2-259.5 995 1091 46.52% 16.50% 36.98%-0.06 -0.5 2
1965-06-20 @ Sandefjord D 2-259.5 1091 995 36.98% 16.50% 46.52%+0.06 +0.5 6
1965-06-20 Lyn Oslo L 1-539.6 1186 1323 40.63% 16.48% 42.88%-0.35 -42.4 7
1965-06-20 @ Skeid W 5-139.6 1323 1186 42.88% 16.48% 40.63%+0.35 +42.4 14
1965-06-20 Sarpsborg L 0-238.1 1114 1257 39.87% 16.48% 43.66%-0.38 -26.4 7
1965-06-20 @ Viking W 2-038.1 1257 1114 43.66% 16.48% 39.87%+0.38 +26.4 13
1965-07-30 Fredrikstad W 4-138.0 1275 1304 55.18% 16.48% 28.34%+0.39 +24.1 16
1965-07-30 @ Valerenga L 1-438.0 1304 1275 28.34% 16.48% 55.18%-0.39 -24.1 12
1965-08-01 Viking L 1-345.0 994 1087 46.97% 16.50% 36.53%-0.04 -26.3 2
1965-08-01 @ Sandefjord W 3-145.0 1087 994 36.53% 16.50% 46.97%+0.04 +26.3 9
1965-08-01 Lyn Oslo W 3-035.7 1284 1366 48.42% 16.50% 35.08%+0.03 +34.4 15
1965-08-01 @ Sarpsborg L 0-335.7 1366 1284 35.08% 16.50% 48.42%-0.03 -34.4 14
1965-08-01 IF Odd W 5-029.6 1194 1179 60.31% 16.43% 23.26%+0.69 +38.7 11
1965-08-01 @ Steinkjer L 0-529.6 1179 1194 23.26% 16.43% 60.31%-0.69 -38.7 6
1965-08-03 Frigg Oslo L 0-147.8 1143 1092 63.89% 16.38% 19.73%+0.94 -21.5 7
1965-08-03 @ Skeid W 1-047.8 1092 1143 19.73% 16.38% 63.89%-0.94 +21.5 8
1965-08-04 Lyn Oslo L 1-829.6 968 1331 15.45% 16.01% 68.53%-1.87 -30.1 2
1965-08-04 @ Sandefjord W 8-129.6 1331 968 68.53% 16.01% 15.45%+1.87 +30.1 16
1965-08-12 Sarpsborg D 3-364.1 1113 1318 31.59% 16.41% 52.00%-0.80 +1.0 9
1965-08-12 @ Frigg Oslo D 3-364.1 1318 1113 52.00% 16.41% 31.59%+0.80 -1.0 16
1965-08-13 Skeid W 7-334.1 1280 1122 72.26% 16.11% 11.63%+1.66 +10.7 14
1965-08-13 @ Fredrikstad L 3-734.1 1122 1280 11.63% 16.11% 72.26%-1.66 -10.7 7
1965-08-14 Sandefjord W 5-129.6 1140 938 74.73% 15.97% 9.30%+1.96 +11.2 8
1965-08-14 @ IF Odd L 1-529.6 938 1140 9.30% 15.97% 74.73%-1.96 -11.2 2
1965-08-15 Steinkjer L 2-359.7 1361 1233 70.23% 16.20% 13.57%+1.46 -21.2 16
1965-08-15 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-259.7 1233 1361 13.57% 16.20% 70.23%-1.46 +21.2 13
1965-08-15 Valerenga L 0-139.0 1114 1299 34.10% 16.44% 49.47%-0.67 -12.2 9
1965-08-15 @ Viking W 1-039.0 1299 1114 49.47% 16.44% 34.10%+0.67 +12.2 18
1965-08-17 Sarpsborg W 6-032.1 1291 1317 55.61% 16.47% 27.91%+0.41 +54.0 16
1965-08-17 @ Fredrikstad L 0-632.1 1317 1291 27.91% 16.47% 55.61%-0.41 -54.0 16
1965-08-18 Lyn Oslo W 3-253.2 1151 1340 33.62% 16.43% 49.95%-0.69 +15.2 10
1965-08-18 @ IF Odd L 2-353.2 1340 1151 49.95% 16.43% 33.62%+0.69 -15.2 16
1965-08-18 Viking W 4-029.9 1111 1101 59.64% 16.44% 23.92%+0.65 +32.2 9
1965-08-18 @ Skeid L 0-429.9 1101 1111 23.92% 16.44% 59.64%-0.65 -32.2 9
1965-08-18 Frigg Oslo D 0-051.3 1254 1114 71.05% 16.17% 12.78%+1.54 -5.5 14
1965-08-18 @ Steinkjer D 0-051.3 1114 1254 12.78% 16.17% 71.05%-1.54 +5.5 10
1965-08-19 Sandefjord W 3-131.6 1311 927 81.36% 15.13% 3.51%+3.19 +2.3 20
1965-08-19 @ Valerenga L 1-331.6 927 1311 3.51% 15.13% 81.36%-3.19 -2.3 2
1965-08-26 Lyn Oslo L 1-743.7 1314 1325 57.31% 16.46% 26.22%+0.51 -83.5 20
1965-08-26 @ Valerenga W 7-143.7 1325 1314 26.22% 16.46% 57.31%-0.51 +83.5 18
1965-08-28 Fredrikstad W 3-042.1 1069 1345 23.32% 16.27% 60.41%-1.28 +55.7 11
1965-08-28 @ Viking L 0-342.1 1345 1069 60.41% 16.27% 23.32%+1.28 -55.6 16
1965-08-29 IF Odd D 1-154.7 1120 1167 53.06% 16.49% 30.45%+0.27 -1.8 11
1965-08-29 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-154.7 1167 1120 30.45% 16.49% 53.06%-0.27 +1.8 11
1965-08-29 Skeid L 0-234.9 925 1143 29.85% 16.39% 53.76%-0.89 -20.6 2
1965-08-29 @ Sandefjord W 2-034.9 1143 925 53.76% 16.39% 29.85%+0.89 +20.6 11
1965-08-29 Steinkjer W 2-140.5 1263 1249 60.12% 16.43% 23.44%+0.68 +8.3 18
1965-08-29 @ Sarpsborg L 1-240.5 1249 1263 23.44% 16.43% 60.12%-0.68 -8.3 14
1965-09-03 Valerenga W 1-038.7 1164 1230 50.54% 16.50% 32.97%+0.14 +11.9 13
1965-09-03 @ Skeid L 0-138.7 1230 1164 32.97% 16.50% 50.54%-0.14 -11.9 20
1965-09-04 Sandefjord W 3-024.5 1289 904 81.39% 15.13% 3.49%+3.20 +3.9 18
1965-09-04 @ Fredrikstad L 0-324.5 904 1289 3.49% 15.13% 81.39%-3.20 -3.9 2
1965-09-05 Frigg Oslo W 4-024.7 1409 1118 78.58% 15.61% 5.82%+2.56 +8.5 20
1965-09-05 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-424.7 1118 1409 5.82% 15.61% 78.58%-2.56 -8.5 11
1965-09-05 Sarpsborg D 1-154.9 1168 1271 45.59% 16.50% 37.91%-0.11 -0.6 12
1965-09-05 @ IF Odd D 1-154.9 1271 1168 37.91% 16.50% 45.59%+0.11 +0.6 19
1965-09-05 Viking W 3-135.3 1241 1125 69.32% 16.23% 14.44%+1.37 +9.3 16
1965-09-05 @ Steinkjer L 1-335.3 1125 1241 14.44% 16.23% 69.32%-1.37 -9.3 11
1965-09-08 IF Odd W 3-247.2 1116 1168 52.39% 16.49% 31.12%+0.23 +10.1 13
1965-09-08 @ Viking L 2-347.2 1168 1116 31.12% 16.49% 52.39%-0.23 -10.1 12
1965-09-09 Sarpsborg W 3-247.6 1218 1272 52.19% 16.49% 31.32%+0.22 +10.2 22
1965-09-09 @ Valerenga L 2-347.6 1272 1218 31.32% 16.49% 52.19%-0.22 -10.2 19
1965-09-19 Viking W 2-141.1 1110 1126 56.75% 16.47% 26.78%+0.48 +9.4 13
1965-09-19 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-241.1 1126 1110 26.78% 16.47% 56.75%-0.48 -9.4 13
1965-09-19 Valerenga L 1-248.2 1158 1228 49.95% 16.50% 33.55%+0.11 -16.0 12
1965-09-19 @ IF Odd W 2-148.2 1228 1158 33.55% 16.50% 49.95%-0.11 +16.0 24
1965-09-19 Skeid L 1-253.3 1262 1176 66.98% 16.31% 16.72%+1.17 -21.3 19
1965-09-19 @ Sarpsborg W 2-153.3 1176 1262 16.72% 16.31% 66.98%-1.17 +21.3 15
1965-09-19 Sandefjord W 2-026.9 1250 900 80.45% 15.32% 4.23%+2.96 +3.3 18
1965-09-19 @ Steinkjer L 0-226.9 900 1250 4.23% 15.32% 80.45%-2.96 -3.3 2
1965-09-21 Fredrikstad W 3-137.0 1417 1293 69.91% 16.21% 13.87%+1.43 +9.0 22
1965-09-21 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-337.0 1293 1417 13.87% 16.21% 69.91%-1.43 -8.9 18
1965-09-22 Steinkjer W 1-038.4 1197 1253 51.85% 16.49% 31.66%+0.21 +11.5 17
1965-09-22 @ Skeid L 0-138.4 1253 1197 31.66% 16.49% 51.85%-0.21 -11.5 18
1965-09-29 Frigg Oslo W 4-344.7 1284 1119 72.67% 16.09% 11.24%+1.71 +3.9 20
1965-09-29 @ Fredrikstad L 3-444.7 1119 1284 11.24% 16.09% 72.67%-1.71 -3.9 13
1965-10-03 Steinkjer L 0-148.1 1288 1242 63.44% 16.38% 20.18%+0.90 -21.4 20
1965-10-03 @ Fredrikstad W 1-048.1 1242 1288 20.18% 16.38% 63.44%-0.90 +21.4 20
1965-10-03 Sarpsborg L 2-440.1 897 1240 17.01% 16.08% 66.91%-1.74 -9.6 2
1965-10-03 @ Sandefjord W 4-240.1 1240 897 66.91% 16.08% 17.01%+1.74 +9.6 21
1965-10-03 IF Odd L 3-460.9 1208 1142 65.33% 16.35% 18.33%+1.04 -19.2 17
1965-10-03 @ Skeid W 4-360.9 1142 1208 18.33% 16.35% 65.33%-1.04 +19.2 14
1965-10-03 Frigg Oslo W 3-241.9 1244 1115 70.32% 16.20% 13.49%+1.47 +4.8 26
1965-10-03 @ Valerenga L 2-341.9 1115 1244 13.49% 16.20% 70.32%-1.47 -4.8 13
1965-10-03 Lyn Oslo L 0-232.5 1116 1426 19.97% 16.18% 63.85%-1.51 -14.4 13
1965-10-03 @ Viking W 2-032.5 1426 1116 63.85% 16.18% 19.97%+1.51 +14.4 24
1965-10-10 Sandefjord W 3-026.1 1110 887 75.78% 15.89% 8.33%+2.10 +9.2 15
1965-10-10 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-326.1 887 1110 8.33% 15.89% 75.78%-2.10 -9.2 2
1965-10-10 Skeid W 2-136.1 1440 1189 77.04% 15.78% 7.18%+2.29 +2.8 26
1965-10-10 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-236.1 1189 1440 7.18% 15.78% 77.04%-2.29 -2.8 17
1965-10-10 Fredrikstad W 4-034.4 1161 1267 45.14% 16.50% 38.36%-0.13 +48.5 16
1965-10-10 @ IF Odd L 0-434.4 1267 1161 38.36% 16.50% 45.14%+0.13 -48.5 20
1965-10-10 Viking W 1-032.3 1250 1102 71.57% 16.15% 12.28%+1.59 +4.9 23
1965-10-10 @ Sarpsborg L 0-132.3 1102 1250 12.28% 16.15% 71.57%-1.59 -4.9 13
1965-10-10 Valerenga D 0-051.6 1263 1249 60.12% 16.43% 23.45%+0.68 -3.3 21
1965-10-10 @ Steinkjer D 0-051.6 1249 1263 23.45% 16.43% 60.12%-0.68 +3.3 27

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1965-08-15 13.57% Steinkjer 1233 3 @ Lyn Oslo 1361 2
2 1965-09-19 16.72% Skeid 1176 2 @ Sarpsborg 1262 1
3 1965-10-03 18.33% IF Odd 1142 4 @ Skeid 1208 3
4 1965-08-03 19.73% Frigg Oslo 1092 1 @ Skeid 1143 0
5 1965-10-03 20.18% Steinkjer 1242 1 @ Fredrikstad 1288 0
6 1965-04-25 20.58% Steinkjer 1228 2 @ IF Odd 1270 0
7 1965-05-02 23.06% Lyn Oslo 1250 4 @ Steinkjer 1268 1
8 1965-08-28 23.32% @ Viking 1069 3 Fredrikstad 1345 0
9 1965-06-04 23.67% Sarpsborg 1215 3 @ Skeid 1227 1
10 1965-04-30 23.79% Fredrikstad 1218 3 @ Skeid 1228 2
11 1965-05-23 25.78% @ Frigg Oslo 1074 1 Lyn Oslo 1327 0
12 1965-08-26 26.22% Lyn Oslo 1325 7 @ Valerenga 1314 1
13 1965-05-30 26.38% Skeid 1207 1 @ IF Odd 1195 0
14 1965-06-13 26.55% @ Frigg Oslo 1072 1 Fredrikstad 1318 0
15 1965-04-23 27.64% Skeid 1177 3 @ Frigg Oslo 1153 0
16 1965-09-19 33.55% Valerenga 1228 2 @ IF Odd 1158 1
17 1965-08-18 33.62% @ IF Odd 1151 3 Lyn Oslo 1340 2
18 1965-05-30 34.25% Fredrikstad 1305 2 @ Steinkjer 1228 1
19 1965-05-09 34.62% Valerenga 1197 2 @ Sandefjord 1119 0
20 1965-08-01 36.53% Viking 1087 3 @ Sandefjord 994 1
21 1965-05-02 37.02% IF Odd 1230 2 @ Sandefjord 1134 1
22 1965-05-23 39.32% @ Viking 1110 2 Steinkjer 1257 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-08-26 83.52 Lyn Oslo 7 1325 26.22% @ Valerenga 1 1314 57.31% 16.46%
2 1965-05-23 71.54 Fredrikstad 6 1233 44.79% @ Sandefjord 0 1082 38.73% 16.47%
3 1965-08-28 55.65 @ Viking 3 1069 23.32% Fredrikstad 0 1345 60.41% 16.27%
4 1965-08-17 54.03 @ Fredrikstad 6 1291 55.61% Sarpsborg 0 1317 27.91% 16.47%
5 1965-04-23 51.68 Skeid 3 1177 27.64% @ Frigg Oslo 0 1153 55.88% 16.47%
6 1965-10-10 48.49 @ IF Odd 4 1161 45.14% Fredrikstad 0 1267 38.36% 16.50%
7 1965-05-02 47.08 Lyn Oslo 4 1250 23.06% @ Steinkjer 1 1268 60.51% 16.43%
8 1965-06-20 42.40 Lyn Oslo 5 1323 42.88% @ Skeid 1 1186 40.63% 16.48%
9 1965-04-25 40.03 Steinkjer 2 1228 20.58% @ IF Odd 0 1270 63.02% 16.39%
10 1965-08-01 38.74 @ Steinkjer 5 1194 60.31% IF Odd 0 1179 23.26% 16.43%
11 1965-08-01 34.41 @ Sarpsborg 3 1284 48.42% Lyn Oslo 0 1366 35.08% 16.50%
12 1965-05-07 33.29 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1297 63.98% IF Odd 0 1245 19.65% 16.37%
13 1965-06-04 32.95 Sarpsborg 3 1215 23.67% @ Skeid 1 1227 59.90% 16.44%
14 1965-08-18 32.22 @ Skeid 4 1111 59.64% Viking 0 1101 23.92% 16.44%
15 1965-05-09 31.45 Valerenga 2 1197 34.62% @ Sandefjord 0 1119 48.89% 16.50%
16 1965-08-04 30.07 Lyn Oslo 8 1331 68.53% @ Sandefjord 1 968 15.45% 16.01%
17 1965-05-23 29.44 @ Sarpsborg 3 1175 54.26% IF Odd 0 1212 29.26% 16.48%
18 1965-05-02 29.27 @ Valerenga 4 1168 62.12% Viking 0 1135 21.48% 16.41%
19 1965-05-23 28.79 @ Viking 2 1110 39.32% Steinkjer 0 1257 44.21% 16.48%
20 1965-06-20 26.39 Sarpsborg 2 1257 43.66% @ Viking 0 1114 39.87% 16.48%
21 1965-08-01 26.28 Viking 3 1087 36.53% @ Sandefjord 1 994 46.97% 16.50%
22 1965-06-18 24.58 @ Valerenga 5 1250 61.93% Steinkjer 1 1219 21.66% 16.41%
23 1965-07-30 24.14 @ Valerenga 4 1275 55.18% Fredrikstad 1 1304 28.34% 16.48%
24 1965-05-16 21.90 @ Steinkjer 3 1235 62.66% Sarpsborg 0 1197 20.94% 16.40%
25 1965-08-03 21.52 Frigg Oslo 1 1092 19.73% @ Skeid 0 1143 63.89% 16.38%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-08-12 64.1 @ Frigg Oslo 3 1113 31.59% Sarpsborg 3 1318 52.00% 16.41%
2 1965-10-03 60.9 IF Odd 4 1142 18.33% @ Skeid 3 1208 65.33% 16.35%
3 1965-06-07 60.7 @ Fredrikstad 2 1320 59.18% Lyn Oslo 2 1315 24.37% 16.44%
4 1965-05-14 60.3 @ Lyn Oslo 2 1331 68.26% Valerenga 2 1229 15.47% 16.27%
5 1965-04-25 59.7 @ Fredrikstad 2 1220 64.22% Valerenga 2 1165 19.41% 16.37%
6 1965-08-15 59.7 Steinkjer 3 1233 13.57% @ Lyn Oslo 2 1361 70.23% 16.20%
7 1965-06-07 59.6 @ Viking 2 1132 64.92% Frigg Oslo 2 1069 18.72% 16.35%
8 1965-06-20 59.5 @ Sandefjord 2 995 46.52% Frigg Oslo 2 1091 36.98% 16.50%
9 1965-04-30 56.0 Fredrikstad 3 1218 23.79% @ Skeid 2 1228 59.77% 16.44%
10 1965-09-05 54.9 @ IF Odd 1 1168 45.59% Sarpsborg 1 1271 37.91% 16.50%
11 1965-05-16 54.8 @ Fredrikstad 1 1238 70.53% Viking 1 1105 13.28% 16.19%
12 1965-05-09 54.7 @ Viking 1 1106 45.39% Skeid 1 1210 38.11% 16.50%
13 1965-06-07 54.7 @ Sandefjord 1 999 30.51% Steinkjer 1 1213 53.09% 16.40%
14 1965-08-29 54.7 @ Frigg Oslo 1 1120 53.06% IF Odd 1 1167 30.45% 16.49%
15 1965-09-19 53.3 Skeid 2 1176 16.72% @ Sarpsborg 1 1262 66.98% 16.31%
16 1965-08-18 53.2 @ IF Odd 3 1151 33.62% Lyn Oslo 2 1340 49.95% 16.43%
17 1965-10-10 51.6 @ Steinkjer 0 1263 60.12% Valerenga 0 1249 23.45% 16.43%
18 1965-05-09 51.3 @ Sarpsborg 0 1199 54.31% Fredrikstad 0 1236 29.20% 16.48%
19 1965-08-18 51.3 @ Steinkjer 0 1254 71.05% Frigg Oslo 0 1114 12.78% 16.17%
20 1965-06-04 49.1 Sarpsborg 3 1215 23.67% @ Skeid 1 1227 59.90% 16.44%
21 1965-05-30 48.3 Fredrikstad 2 1305 34.25% @ Steinkjer 1 1228 49.25% 16.50%
22 1965-09-19 48.2 Valerenga 2 1228 33.55% @ IF Odd 1 1158 49.95% 16.50%
23 1965-10-03 48.1 Steinkjer 1 1242 20.18% @ Fredrikstad 0 1288 63.44% 16.38%
24 1965-08-03 47.8 Frigg Oslo 1 1092 19.73% @ Skeid 0 1143 63.89% 16.38%
25 1965-09-09 47.6 @ Valerenga 3 1218 52.19% Sarpsborg 2 1272 31.32% 16.49%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1965-09-04 24.5 @ Fredrikstad 3 1289 81.39% Sandefjord 0 904 3.49% 15.13%
2 1965-09-05 24.7 @ Lyn Oslo 4 1409 78.58% Frigg Oslo 0 1118 5.82% 15.61%
3 1965-10-10 26.1 @ Frigg Oslo 3 1110 75.78% Sandefjord 0 887 8.33% 15.89%
4 1965-05-30 26.6 @ Sarpsborg 3 1204 74.32% Sandefjord 0 1010 9.69% 16.00%
5 1965-09-19 26.9 @ Steinkjer 2 1250 80.45% Sandefjord 0 900 4.23% 15.32%
6 1965-06-11 28.3 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1317 79.44% Sandefjord 1 1001 5.08% 15.49%
7 1965-05-07 28.9 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1297 63.98% IF Odd 0 1245 19.65% 16.37%
8 1965-05-02 29.2 @ Valerenga 4 1168 62.12% Viking 0 1135 21.48% 16.41%
9 1965-08-01 29.6 @ Steinkjer 5 1194 60.31% IF Odd 0 1179 23.26% 16.43%
10 1965-08-04 29.6 Lyn Oslo 8 1331 68.53% @ Sandefjord 1 968 15.45% 16.01%
11 1965-08-14 29.6 @ IF Odd 5 1140 74.73% Sandefjord 1 938 9.30% 15.97%
12 1965-08-18 29.9 @ Skeid 4 1111 59.64% Viking 0 1101 23.92% 16.44%
13 1965-05-16 30.3 @ Steinkjer 3 1235 62.66% Sarpsborg 0 1197 20.94% 16.40%
14 1965-05-27 30.9 @ IF Odd 2 1182 67.19% Frigg Oslo 0 1094 16.51% 16.30%
15 1965-05-02 31.0 @ Sarpsborg 2 1187 66.93% Frigg Oslo 0 1101 16.76% 16.31%
16 1965-08-19 31.6 @ Valerenga 3 1311 81.36% Sandefjord 1 927 3.51% 15.13%
17 1965-08-17 32.1 @ Fredrikstad 6 1291 55.61% Sarpsborg 0 1317 27.91% 16.47%
18 1965-06-13 32.2 @ IF Odd 2 1169 62.85% Viking 0 1129 20.76% 16.39%
19 1965-10-10 32.3 @ Sarpsborg 1 1250 71.57% Viking 0 1102 12.28% 16.15%
20 1965-10-03 32.5 Lyn Oslo 2 1426 63.85% @ Viking 0 1116 19.97% 16.18%
21 1965-05-16 32.7 @ Skeid 1 1211 69.90% Sandefjord 0 1087 13.89% 16.21%
22 1965-05-23 32.8 @ Sarpsborg 3 1175 54.26% IF Odd 0 1212 29.26% 16.48%
23 1965-06-18 33.8 @ Valerenga 5 1250 61.93% Steinkjer 1 1219 21.66% 16.41%
24 1965-08-13 34.1 @ Fredrikstad 7 1280 72.26% Skeid 3 1122 11.63% 16.11%
25 1965-05-30 34.3 @ Lyn Oslo 3 1308 72.90% Viking 1 1139 11.02% 16.08%