1966 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Skeid

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Lisleby

13 pts

Hodd · 13 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Skeid

6.25 points above expected

25 points · 18.75 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Hodd

4.57 points below expected

13 points · 17.57 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Skeid Champion	18	9	7	2	25	31	20	+11	18.75	+6.25
2	Fredrikstad	18	10	4	4	24	37	20	+17	18.61	+5.39
3	Lyn Oslo	18	6	9	3	21	28	24	+4	20.96	+0.04
4	Frigg Oslo	18	8	4	6	20	21	15	+6	17.76	+2.24
5	Valerenga	18	9	1	8	19	32	35	-3	17.39	+1.61
6	Steinkjer	18	7	3	8	17	31	29	+2	18.09	-1.09
7	IF Odd	18	5	4	9	14	21	29	-8	16.35	-2.35
8	Sarpsborg	18	4	6	8	14	16	24	-8	17.37	-3.37
9	Lisleby Relegated	18	4	5	9	13	22	26	-4	17.15	-4.15
10	Hodd Relegated	18	5	3	10	13	29	46	-17	17.57	-4.57

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Skeid	25	18.75	+6.25
2	Fredrikstad	24	18.61	+5.39
3	Frigg Oslo	20	17.76	+2.24
4	Valerenga	19	17.39	+1.61
5	Lyn Oslo	21	20.96	+0.04

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Hodd	13	17.57	-4.57
2	Lisleby	13	17.15	-4.15
3	Sarpsborg	14	17.37	-3.37
4	IF Odd	14	16.35	-2.35
5	Steinkjer	17	18.09	-1.09

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valerenga	5	May 15 – Jun 16	1 in 268
2	Fredrikstad	3	Jun 5 – Jun 19	1 in 37
3	Skeid	4	Jun 20 – Aug 12	1 in 26
4	Frigg Oslo	3	Apr 26 – May 8	1 in 22
5	Steinkjer	2	May 8 – May 15	1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valerenga	3	Apr 24 – May 8	1 in 43
2	Hodd	3	Jun 5 – Jun 19	1 in 43
3	Lisleby	3	Sep 11 – Oct 9	1 in 33
4	Steinkjer	3	May 19 – May 30	1 in 21
5	IF Odd	3	May 1 – May 15	1 in 20

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Skeid	8	Jun 15 – Sep 25	1 in 18
2	IF Odd	5	Sep 11 – Oct 23	1 in 15
3	Valerenga	5	May 15 – Jun 16	1 in 12
4	Lyn Oslo	7	Apr 24 – Jun 5	1 in 11
5	Fredrikstad	6	May 23 – Aug 3	1 in 11

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sarpsborg	7	Aug 12 – Oct 23	1 in 18
2	Lisleby	5	Jun 15 – Aug 12	1 in 13
3	Lyn Oslo	3	May 15 – May 31	1 in 9
4	Hodd	5	Jun 5 – Aug 12	1 in 8
5	Skeid	3	Sep 25 – Oct 16	1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Skeid	1328	25	-2	6	5.8	+0.2
Fredrikstad	1360	24	+68	9	4.9	+4.1
Lyn Oslo	1365	21	+22	7	6.0	+1.0
Frigg Oslo	1279	20	+10	5	4.8	+0.2
Valerenga	1277	19	-5	5	4.7	+0.3
Steinkjer	1273	17	-17	5	5.3	-0.3
IF Odd	1244	14	+19	7	4.7	+2.3
Sarpsborg	1242	14	-41	1	4.4	-3.4
Hodd	1219	13	-26	3	4.2	-1.2
Lisleby	1236	13	-28	2	5.0	-3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	FRE	FO	HOD	IO	LIS	LO	SAR	SKE	STE	VAL
Fredrikstad	—	0-1-1 2.99	2-0-0 3.16	1-0-1 3.15	1-1-0 2.87	0-2-0 2.36	2-0-0 2.96	2-0-0 2.57	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.90
Frigg Oslo	1-1-0 2.48	—	2-0-0 2.72	1-0-1 2.87	1-0-1 2.77	0-1-1 2.37	1-1-0 2.66	0-0-2 2.61	1-1-0 2.59	1-0-1 2.72
Hodd	0-0-2 2.32	0-0-2 2.74	—	1-1-0 2.93	0-0-2 2.82	1-1-0 2.29	1-1-0 2.72	0-0-2 2.60	1-0-1 2.56	1-0-1 2.69
IF Odd	1-0-1 2.31	1-0-1 2.60	0-1-1 2.54	—	2-0-0 2.57	0-1-1 2.01	0-0-2 2.59	0-2-0 2.29	1-0-1 2.44	0-0-2 2.68
Lisleby	0-1-1 2.59	1-0-1 2.69	2-0-0 2.64	0-0-2 2.90	—	0-2-0 2.26	0-1-1 2.72	0-1-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.57	0-0-2 2.74
Lyn Oslo	0-2-0 3.11	1-1-0 3.10	0-1-1 3.17	1-1-0 3.47	0-2-0 3.21	—	2-0-0 3.11	0-1-1 2.98	2-0-0 3.07	0-1-1 3.18
Sarpsborg	0-0-2 2.51	0-1-1 2.81	0-1-1 2.75	2-0-0 2.87	1-1-0 2.74	0-0-2 2.36	—	0-2-0 2.52	0-1-1 2.68	1-0-1 2.46
Skeid	0-0-2 2.89	2-0-0 2.86	2-0-0 2.88	0-2-0 3.18	1-1-0 2.93	1-1-0 2.49	0-2-0 2.95	—	1-1-0 2.87	2-0-0 2.72
Steinkjer	1-0-1 2.79	0-1-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.91	1-0-1 3.03	1-0-1 2.90	0-0-2 2.40	1-1-0 2.79	0-1-1 2.60	—	2-0-0 2.81
Valerenga	1-0-1 2.56	1-0-1 2.74	1-0-1 2.78	2-0-0 2.79	2-0-0 2.72	1-1-0 2.29	1-0-1 3.00	0-0-2 2.75	0-0-2 2.65	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.38	+4.3
Allowed	0.33	-2.9
Differential	0.82	+4.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	10.56%	2.22%	4.44%	0.56%	0.56%	25.00%
1	10.56%	12.22%	4.44%	5.56%	1.11%	2.22%	36.11%
2	2.22%	4.44%	5.56%	1.11%	3.33%	0.56%	17.22%
3	4.44%	5.56%	1.11%	1.11%	0.56%	—	12.78%
4	0.56%	1.11%	3.33%	0.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	0.56%	2.22%	0.56%	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	25.00%	36.11%	17.22%	12.78%	5.56%	3.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.49	1.49	+0.00
SD	1.36	1.36	1.93
CV	0.91	0.91	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	44.44%	—	22.22%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.06	1.11	+0.94
SD	1.70	1.13	2.39
CV	0.83	1.02	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	44.44%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	50.00%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	0.83	+0.33
SD	1.34	0.99	1.61
CV	1.15	1.18	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	—	11.11%	50.00%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.61	2.56	-0.94
SD	1.20	1.79	2.48
CV	0.74	0.70	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	22.22%	—	5.56%	50.00%
2	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	33.33%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.17	1.61	-0.44
SD	0.92	1.54	1.69
CV	0.79	0.96	—
Max	3	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	27.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	11.11%	—	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	44.44%	27.78%	—	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.44	-0.22
SD	1.48	1.15	1.63
CV	1.21	0.80	—
Max	6	4	+5
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
1	5.56%	27.78%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	44.44%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.33	+0.22
SD	1.20	1.14	1.40
CV	0.77	0.85	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	1.33	-0.44
SD	1.02	1.33	1.69
CV	1.15	1.00	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	27.78%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.11	+0.61
SD	1.45	1.08	1.46
CV	0.84	0.97	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
Total	5.56%	55.56%	22.22%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.61	+0.11
SD	1.64	1.09	1.97
CV	0.95	0.68	—
Max	5	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	22.22%
2	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
3	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.94	-0.17
SD	1.31	1.59	2.36
CV	0.74	0.82	—
Max	4	5	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Lyn Oslo	1365	21	20.96	+0.04	50.0%	13	14	18	21	24	26	28
Fredrikstad	1360	24	18.61	+5.39	97.0%	10	12	16	19	21	24	26
Skeid	1328	25	18.75	+6.25	97.0%	9	11	16	19	21	25	28
Frigg Oslo	1279	20	17.76	+2.24	77.0%	11	13	16	17	20	22	25
Valerenga	1277	19	17.39	+1.61	71.0%	9	11	15	17	20	22	25
Steinkjer	1273	17	18.09	-1.09	44.0%	9	12	16	18	21	23	28
IF Odd	1244	14	16.35	-2.35	31.0%	8	10	14	17	19	21	22
Sarpsborg	1242	14	17.37	-3.37	20.0%	10	13	15	18	19	22	27
Lisleby	1236	13	17.15	-4.15	11.0%	11	13	15	17	19	22	24
Hodd	1219	13	17.57	-4.57	15.0%	10	12	15	18	20	23	27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+23.33%

Strong Edge

48.89%25.56%25.56%

Elo Value

Home Edge

162 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

082.59500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.60 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.51+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

5.0

Open

134610

Champion Preseason Odds

14%

Skeid, 3rd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.68 * Some Luck: 2.68 to 4.03 * Lucky: 4.03 to 5.37 * Wild Swing: 5.37 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.16 * Close: 2.16 to 3.24 * Off: 3.24 to 4.31 * Way Off: 4.31 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.39 * A Surprise: 1.39 to 2.22 * Several Surprises: 2.22 to 3.06 * Many Surprises: 3.06 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.63 points

Some Luck

03.358

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.60

Pinpoint

02.706

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.00%

Skeid

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

11.00%

Lisleby

050

Season Outliers

Expected

2 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 2

As Expected

01.42

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.13

Balanced

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 52.12

1.23

Coin-Flip Parity

0.91.351.551.752.5

Interquartile Edge

60%

Even

50%61.5%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

70%

Even

50%73%100%

Close Games

Expected

59%

Frequent

0%56%100%

Blowouts

Expected

19%

Occasional

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.64

Hard to Predict

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.41

Lopsided

00.320.380.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.18

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

-0.22

Weak Carryover

00.280.481

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Upset-Prone

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

27%

Very Shaky

0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.

Probability calibration

0.44

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.70

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.086

Well Within Noise

00.1340.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Skeid	14.00%	15.00%	11.00%	14.00%	12.00%	10.00%	3.00%	4.00%	10.00%	7.00%
Fredrikstad	15.00%	13.00%	15.00%	8.00%	13.00%	4.00%	10.00%	6.00%	6.00%	10.00%
Lyn Oslo	37.00%	17.00%	7.00%	10.00%	5.00%	8.00%	7.00%	3.00%	3.00%	3.00%
Frigg Oslo	8.00%	8.00%	14.00%	5.00%	9.00%	15.00%	13.00%	15.00%	7.00%	6.00%
Valerenga	7.00%	6.00%	14.00%	9.00%	8.00%	7.00%	9.00%	15.00%	13.00%	12.00%
Steinkjer	7.00%	16.00%	6.00%	9.00%	17.00%	9.00%	11.00%	10.00%	8.00%	7.00%
IF Odd	1.00%	7.00%	7.00%	12.00%	7.00%	10.00%	15.00%	6.00%	11.00%	24.00%
Sarpsborg	3.00%	7.00%	6.00%	14.00%	10.00%	16.00%	8.00%	11.00%	17.00%	8.00%
Lisleby	2.00%	4.00%	9.00%	10.00%	9.00%	14.00%	12.00%	18.00%	15.00%	7.00%
Hodd	6.00%	7.00%	11.00%	9.00%	10.00%	7.00%	12.00%	12.00%	10.00%	16.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo	94.00%	6.00%
Frigg Oslo	87.00%	13.00%
Steinkjer	85.00%	15.00%
Fredrikstad	84.00%	16.00%
Skeid	83.00%	17.00%
Lisleby	78.00%	22.00%
Sarpsborg	75.00%	25.00%
Valerenga	75.00%	25.00%
Hodd	74.00%	26.00%
IF Odd	65.00%	35.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1966-04-24	Sarpsborg	W 3-1	39.2	1297	1285	53.49%	26.62%	19.88%	+0.58	+8.0	2
1966-04-24	@ Hodd	L 1-3	39.2	1285	1297	19.88%	26.62%	53.49%	-0.58	-8.0	0
1966-04-24	Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	58.2	1268	1343	43.17%	27.10%	29.73%	+0.05	-0.4	1
1966-04-24	@ Lisleby	D 2-2	58.2	1343	1268	29.73%	27.10%	43.17%	-0.05	+0.4	1
1966-04-24	Skeid	L 0-1	47.6	1283	1266	53.95%	26.58%	19.47%	+0.61	-10.8	0
1966-04-24	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	47.6	1266	1283	19.47%	26.58%	53.95%	-0.61	+10.8	2
1966-04-26	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	38.7	1246	1276	48.70%	26.96%	24.35%	+0.32	+5.8	2
1966-04-26	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	38.7	1276	1246	24.35%	26.96%	48.70%	-0.32	-5.8	0
1966-05-01	Valerenga	W 3-0	31.9	1270	1272	51.97%	26.76%	21.27%	+0.50	+14.2	2
1966-05-01	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-3	31.9	1272	1270	21.27%	26.76%	51.97%	-0.50	-14.2	0
1966-05-01	Hodd	D 1-1	53.6	1344	1305	56.16%	26.33%	17.51%	+0.75	-1.8	2
1966-05-01	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	53.6	1305	1344	17.51%	26.33%	56.16%	-0.75	+1.8	3
1966-05-01	IF Odd	W 1-0	37.7	1277	1273	52.62%	26.70%	20.68%	+0.53	+5.1	2
1966-05-01	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-1	37.7	1273	1277	20.68%	26.70%	52.62%	-0.53	-5.1	0
1966-05-01	Lisleby	D 2-2	58.0	1277	1268	53.16%	26.65%	20.18%	+0.57	-1.1	3
1966-05-01	@ Skeid	D 2-2	58.0	1268	1277	20.18%	26.65%	53.16%	-0.57	+1.1	2
1966-05-01	Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	48.1	1287	1251	55.83%	26.37%	17.80%	+0.73	-11.2	0
1966-05-01	@ Steinkjer	W 1-0	48.1	1251	1287	17.80%	26.37%	55.83%	-0.73	+11.2	4
1966-05-08	Lisleby	D 1-1	52.9	1285	1269	53.83%	26.59%	19.58%	+0.60	-1.5	3
1966-05-08	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	52.9	1269	1285	19.58%	26.59%	53.83%	-0.60	+1.5	3
1966-05-08	IF Odd	W 1-0	37.9	1263	1268	51.63%	26.78%	21.59%	+0.48	+5.2	6
1966-05-08	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	37.9	1268	1263	21.59%	26.78%	51.63%	-0.48	-5.2	0
1966-05-08	Skeid	L 2-3	57.8	1307	1276	55.37%	26.42%	18.21%	+0.70	-9.9	3
1966-05-08	@ Hodd	W 3-2	57.8	1276	1307	18.21%	26.42%	55.37%	-0.70	+9.9	5
1966-05-08	Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	47.2	1282	1342	45.06%	27.08%	27.86%	+0.14	-15.1	2
1966-05-08	@ Sarpsborg	W 3-1	47.2	1342	1282	27.86%	27.08%	45.06%	-0.14	+15.1	4
1966-05-08	Steinkjer	L 2-5	48.4	1258	1276	50.24%	26.88%	22.89%	+0.40	-20.3	0
1966-05-08	@ Valerenga	W 5-2	48.4	1276	1258	22.89%	26.88%	50.24%	-0.40	+20.3	2
1966-05-15	Hodd	W 6-1	35.6	1271	1297	49.22%	26.93%	23.85%	+0.35	+20.8	5
1966-05-15	@ Lisleby	L 1-6	35.6	1297	1271	23.85%	26.93%	49.22%	-0.35	-20.8	3
1966-05-15	Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	49.6	1357	1268	60.73%	25.57%	13.69%	+1.06	-2.5	5
1966-05-15	@ Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	49.6	1268	1357	13.69%	25.57%	60.73%	-1.06	+2.5	7
1966-05-15	Valerenga	L 1-3	49.2	1262	1238	54.75%	26.50%	18.76%	+0.66	-17.9	0
1966-05-15	@ IF Odd	W 3-1	49.2	1238	1262	18.76%	26.50%	54.75%	-0.66	+17.9	2
1966-05-15	Fredrikstad	W 3-1	39.2	1296	1283	53.53%	26.62%	19.85%	+0.59	+8.0	4
1966-05-15	@ Steinkjer	L 1-3	39.2	1283	1296	19.85%	26.62%	53.53%	-0.59	-8.0	3
1966-05-19	Steinkjer	W 1-0	39.9	1244	1304	45.17%	27.07%	27.75%	+0.14	+6.4	2
1966-05-19	@ IF Odd	L 0-1	39.9	1304	1244	27.75%	27.07%	45.17%	-0.14	-6.4	4
1966-05-19	Sarpsborg	D 0-0	48.8	1286	1267	54.23%	26.55%	19.22%	+0.63	-1.8	6
1966-05-19	@ Skeid	D 0-0	48.8	1267	1286	19.22%	26.55%	54.23%	-0.63	+1.8	3
1966-05-23	IF Odd	W 3-1	38.5	1275	1251	54.73%	26.50%	18.77%	+0.66	+7.6	5
1966-05-23	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-3	38.5	1251	1275	18.77%	26.50%	54.73%	-0.66	-7.6	2
1966-05-23	Steinkjer	W 3-0	32.7	1276	1297	49.79%	26.90%	23.30%	+0.38	+15.3	5
1966-05-23	@ Hodd	L 0-3	32.7	1297	1276	23.30%	26.90%	49.79%	-0.38	-15.3	4
1966-05-23	Skeid	D 1-1	53.7	1355	1284	59.10%	25.88%	15.02%	+0.94	-2.0	6
1966-05-23	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	53.7	1284	1355	15.02%	25.88%	59.10%	-0.94	+2.1	7
1966-05-23	Lisleby	W 1-0	38.6	1268	1291	49.60%	26.91%	23.49%	+0.37	+5.6	5
1966-05-23	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-1	38.6	1291	1268	23.49%	26.91%	49.60%	-0.37	-5.6	5
1966-05-23	Frigg Oslo	W 2-1	43.0	1256	1270	50.56%	26.85%	22.58%	+0.42	+5.1	4
1966-05-23	@ Valerenga	L 1-2	43.0	1270	1256	22.58%	26.85%	50.56%	-0.42	-5.1	7
1966-05-30	Hodd	L 0-1	45.5	1243	1291	46.56%	27.04%	26.40%	+0.21	-9.5	2
1966-05-30	@ IF Odd	W 1-0	45.5	1291	1243	26.40%	27.04%	46.56%	-0.21	+9.5	7
1966-05-30	Skeid	L 2-4	52.7	1282	1286	51.71%	26.78%	21.51%	+0.48	-15.2	4
1966-05-30	@ Steinkjer	W 4-2	52.7	1286	1282	21.51%	26.78%	51.71%	-0.48	+15.2	9
1966-05-31	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	49.2	1283	1353	43.83%	27.09%	29.07%	+0.08	-0.7	6
1966-05-31	@ Fredrikstad	D 0-0	49.2	1353	1283	29.07%	27.09%	43.83%	-0.08	+0.7	7
1966-05-31	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	38.1	1265	1274	51.19%	26.81%	22.00%	+0.45	+5.3	9
1966-05-31	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	38.1	1274	1265	22.00%	26.81%	51.19%	-0.45	-5.3	5
1966-05-31	Lisleby	W 4-2	44.2	1261	1286	49.37%	26.92%	23.71%	+0.36	+8.3	6
1966-05-31	@ Valerenga	L 2-4	44.2	1286	1261	23.71%	26.92%	49.37%	-0.36	-8.3	5
1966-06-05	Valerenga	L 1-3	49.7	1301	1269	55.48%	26.41%	18.11%	+0.71	-18.2	7
1966-06-05	@ Hodd	W 3-1	49.7	1269	1301	18.11%	26.41%	55.48%	-0.71	+18.2	8
1966-06-05	Frigg Oslo	W 1-0	37.6	1278	1270	52.94%	26.67%	20.39%	+0.55	+5.0	7
1966-06-05	@ Lisleby	L 0-1	37.6	1270	1278	20.39%	26.67%	52.94%	-0.55	-5.0	9
1966-06-05	IF Odd	W 4-3	47.4	1353	1234	63.17%	25.02%	11.81%	+1.25	+2.7	9
1966-06-05	@ Lyn Oslo	L 3-4	47.4	1234	1353	11.81%	25.02%	63.17%	-1.25	-2.7	2
1966-06-05	Steinkjer	D 1-1	52.8	1269	1267	52.37%	26.72%	20.90%	+0.52	-1.4	6
1966-06-05	@ Sarpsborg	D 1-1	52.8	1267	1269	20.90%	26.72%	52.37%	-0.52	+1.4	5
1966-06-05	Fredrikstad	L 0-1	47.9	1302	1282	54.24%	26.55%	19.21%	+0.63	-10.9	9
1966-06-05	@ Skeid	W 1-0	47.9	1282	1302	19.21%	26.55%	54.24%	-0.63	+10.9	8
1966-06-15	Sarpsborg	W 4-0	30.4	1293	1267	54.86%	26.48%	18.66%	+0.67	+16.7	10
1966-06-15	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-4	30.4	1267	1293	18.66%	26.48%	54.86%	-0.67	-16.7	6
1966-06-15	Hodd	W 5-1	35.8	1265	1283	50.24%	26.87%	22.88%	+0.40	+16.4	11
1966-06-15	@ Frigg Oslo	L 1-5	35.8	1283	1265	22.88%	26.87%	50.24%	-0.40	-16.4	7
1966-06-15	Skeid	D 1-1	52.6	1231	1291	45.13%	27.07%	27.80%	+0.14	-0.7	3
1966-06-15	@ IF Odd	D 1-1	52.6	1291	1231	27.80%	27.07%	45.13%	-0.14	+0.7	10
1966-06-15	Lisleby	W 4-2	43.9	1268	1283	50.59%	26.85%	22.55%	+0.42	+7.9	7
1966-06-15	@ Steinkjer	L 2-4	43.9	1283	1268	22.55%	26.85%	50.59%	-0.42	-7.9	7
1966-06-16	Lyn Oslo	W 3-0	35.0	1287	1356	43.98%	27.09%	28.93%	+0.09	+18.1	10
1966-06-16	@ Valerenga	L 0-3	35.0	1356	1287	28.93%	27.09%	43.98%	-0.09	-18.1	9
1966-06-18	IF Odd	L 0-1	48.2	1275	1230	56.71%	26.25%	17.04%	+0.78	-11.4	7
1966-06-18	@ Lisleby	W 1-0	48.2	1230	1275	17.04%	26.25%	56.71%	-0.78	+11.3	5
1966-06-19	Fredrikstad	L 1-3	47.5	1266	1310	47.19%	27.02%	25.79%	+0.24	-15.7	7
1966-06-19	@ Hodd	W 3-1	47.5	1310	1266	25.79%	27.02%	47.19%	-0.24	+15.7	12
1966-06-19	Steinkjer	W 2-1	41.2	1338	1276	58.32%	26.01%	15.66%	+0.89	+3.8	11
1966-06-19	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	41.2	1276	1338	15.66%	26.01%	58.32%	-0.89	-3.8	7
1966-06-19	Valerenga	W 3-0	33.9	1251	1305	45.78%	27.06%	27.16%	+0.17	+17.2	8
1966-06-19	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-3	33.9	1305	1251	27.16%	27.06%	45.78%	-0.17	-17.2	10
1966-06-20	Frigg Oslo	W 2-0	34.1	1291	1282	53.20%	26.65%	20.15%	+0.57	+9.4	12
1966-06-20	@ Skeid	L 0-2	34.1	1282	1291	20.15%	26.65%	53.20%	-0.57	-9.4	11
1966-07-31	Hodd	D 1-1	52.7	1268	1251	54.00%	26.57%	19.42%	+0.62	-1.5	9
1966-07-31	@ Sarpsborg	D 1-1	52.7	1251	1268	19.42%	26.57%	54.00%	-0.62	+1.6	8
1966-07-31	Valerenga	W 5-1	35.0	1301	1288	53.53%	26.62%	19.85%	+0.59	+14.6	14
1966-07-31	@ Skeid	L 1-5	35.0	1288	1301	19.85%	26.62%	53.53%	-0.59	-14.6	10
1966-07-31	IF Odd	W 5-1	34.1	1272	1242	55.39%	26.42%	18.18%	+0.70	+13.6	9
1966-07-31	@ Steinkjer	L 1-5	34.1	1242	1272	18.18%	26.42%	55.39%	-0.70	-13.6	5
1966-08-03	Frigg Oslo	D 3-3	62.4	1325	1273	57.50%	26.14%	16.36%	+0.83	-1.2	13
1966-08-03	@ Fredrikstad	D 3-3	62.4	1273	1325	16.36%	26.14%	57.50%	-0.83	+1.2	12
1966-08-03	Lisleby	D 2-2	58.6	1342	1263	59.81%	25.76%	14.44%	+0.99	-1.6	12
1966-08-03	@ Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	58.6	1263	1342	14.44%	25.76%	59.81%	-0.99	+1.6	8
1966-08-06	Skeid	L 0-1	45.6	1265	1315	46.29%	27.05%	26.67%	+0.20	-9.5	8
1966-08-06	@ Lisleby	W 1-0	45.6	1315	1265	26.67%	27.05%	46.29%	-0.20	+9.5	16
1966-08-07	Steinkjer	D 1-1	52.8	1274	1286	50.80%	26.84%	22.36%	+0.43	-1.3	13
1966-08-07	@ Frigg Oslo	D 1-1	52.8	1286	1274	22.36%	26.84%	50.80%	-0.43	+1.2	10
1966-08-07	Sarpsborg	L 1-3	47.3	1228	1266	47.77%	27.00%	25.23%	+0.27	-15.9	5
1966-08-07	@ IF Odd	W 3-1	47.3	1266	1228	25.23%	27.00%	47.77%	-0.27	+15.9	11
1966-08-08	Fredrikstad	W 3-0	33.9	1274	1324	46.28%	27.05%	26.67%	+0.20	+17.0	12
1966-08-08	@ Valerenga	L 0-3	33.9	1324	1274	26.67%	27.05%	46.28%	-0.20	-17.0	13
1966-08-12	Sarpsborg	D 0-0	48.7	1255	1282	49.15%	26.94%	23.92%	+0.34	-1.2	9
1966-08-12	@ Lisleby	D 0-0	48.7	1282	1255	23.92%	26.94%	49.15%	-0.34	+1.2	12
1966-08-12	Fredrikstad	W 3-0	35.3	1212	1307	40.49%	27.09%	32.41%	-0.08	+19.7	7
1966-08-12	@ IF Odd	L 0-3	35.3	1307	1212	32.41%	27.09%	40.49%	+0.08	-19.7	13
1966-08-12	Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	44.0	1325	1340	50.47%	26.86%	22.67%	+0.41	+5.1	18
1966-08-12	@ Skeid	L 1-2	44.0	1340	1325	22.67%	26.86%	50.47%	-0.41	-5.2	12
1966-08-12	Hodd	W 3-1	38.3	1287	1252	55.80%	26.37%	17.83%	+0.73	+7.3	12
1966-08-12	@ Steinkjer	L 1-3	38.3	1252	1287	17.83%	26.37%	55.80%	-0.73	-7.3	8
1966-08-16	Valerenga	W 3-0	32.6	1272	1291	50.16%	26.88%	22.96%	+0.40	+15.1	15
1966-08-16	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-3	32.6	1291	1272	22.96%	26.88%	50.16%	-0.40	-15.1	12
1966-08-24	Lyn Oslo	W 4-2	46.9	1245	1335	41.16%	27.10%	31.74%	-0.05	+10.3	10
1966-08-24	@ Hodd	L 2-4	46.9	1335	1245	31.74%	27.10%	41.16%	+0.05	-10.3	12
1966-08-28	Steinkjer	W 2-1	43.1	1288	1295	51.39%	26.80%	21.81%	+0.46	+5.0	15
1966-08-28	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	43.1	1295	1288	21.81%	26.80%	51.39%	-0.46	-5.0	12
1966-08-28	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	42.8	1288	1325	47.92%	26.99%	25.09%	+0.28	-18.4	15
1966-08-28	@ Frigg Oslo	W 2-0	42.8	1325	1288	25.09%	26.99%	47.92%	-0.28	+18.4	14
1966-08-28	Lisleby	L 1-2	51.8	1255	1254	52.29%	26.73%	20.98%	+0.52	-9.9	10
1966-08-28	@ Hodd	W 2-1	51.8	1254	1255	20.98%	26.73%	52.29%	-0.52	+9.9	11
1966-08-28	Skeid	D 2-2	58.3	1283	1330	46.78%	27.03%	26.19%	+0.22	-0.7	13
1966-08-28	@ Sarpsborg	D 2-2	58.3	1330	1283	26.19%	27.03%	46.78%	-0.22	+0.7	19
1966-08-28	IF Odd	W 3-1	37.9	1275	1232	56.63%	26.26%	17.10%	+0.78	+7.1	14
1966-08-28	@ Valerenga	L 1-3	37.9	1232	1275	17.10%	26.26%	56.63%	-0.78	-7.1	7
1966-09-11	Fredrikstad	L 1-2	51.1	1264	1292	48.97%	26.94%	24.09%	+0.33	-9.4	11
1966-09-11	@ Lisleby	W 2-1	51.1	1292	1264	24.09%	26.94%	48.97%	-0.33	+9.4	17
1966-09-11	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	36.5	1343	1283	58.19%	26.04%	15.78%	+0.88	+4.0	16
1966-09-11	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	36.5	1283	1343	15.78%	26.04%	58.19%	-0.88	-4.0	13
1966-09-11	Frigg Oslo	W 2-1	44.0	1225	1269	47.04%	27.02%	25.94%	+0.23	+5.7	9
1966-09-11	@ IF Odd	L 1-2	44.0	1269	1225	25.94%	27.02%	47.04%	-0.23	-5.7	15
1966-09-11	Hodd	W 4-2	41.1	1331	1245	60.39%	25.64%	13.97%	+1.04	+5.3	21
1966-09-11	@ Skeid	L 2-4	41.1	1245	1331	13.97%	25.64%	60.39%	-1.04	-5.3	10
1966-09-11	Valerenga	W 2-1	42.5	1290	1282	52.95%	26.67%	20.38%	+0.55	+4.7	14
1966-09-11	@ Steinkjer	L 1-2	42.5	1282	1290	20.38%	26.67%	52.95%	-0.55	-4.7	14
1966-09-22	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	53.6	1347	1302	56.79%	26.24%	16.97%	+0.79	-1.8	17
1966-09-22	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	53.6	1302	1347	16.97%	26.24%	56.79%	-0.79	+1.8	18
1966-09-24	Valerenga	L 0-1	46.3	1255	1278	49.59%	26.91%	23.50%	+0.37	-10.0	11
1966-09-24	@ Lisleby	W 1-0	46.3	1278	1255	23.50%	26.91%	49.59%	-0.37	+10.0	16
1966-09-25	IF Odd	D 2-2	57.7	1240	1230	53.21%	26.65%	20.14%	+0.57	-1.1	11
1966-09-25	@ Hodd	D 2-2	57.7	1230	1240	20.14%	26.65%	53.21%	-0.57	+1.1	10
1966-09-25	Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	48.8	1279	1263	53.81%	26.59%	19.60%	+0.60	-1.7	14
1966-09-25	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	48.8	1263	1279	19.60%	26.59%	53.81%	-0.60	+1.7	16
1966-09-25	Steinkjer	D 1-1	53.5	1336	1294	56.44%	26.29%	17.27%	+0.77	-1.8	22
1966-09-25	@ Skeid	D 1-1	53.5	1294	1336	17.27%	26.29%	56.44%	-0.77	+1.8	15
1966-10-09	Skeid	W 4-1	38.3	1304	1334	48.72%	26.96%	24.33%	+0.32	+13.3	20
1966-10-09	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-4	38.3	1334	1304	24.33%	26.96%	48.72%	-0.32	-13.3	22
1966-10-09	Lisleby	W 1-0	37.0	1265	1245	54.33%	26.54%	19.13%	+0.63	+4.8	18
1966-10-09	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	37.0	1245	1265	19.13%	26.54%	54.33%	-0.63	-4.8	11
1966-10-09	Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	52.9	1232	1345	37.91%	27.05%	35.04%	-0.19	-0.1	11
1966-10-09	@ IF Odd	D 1-1	52.9	1345	1232	35.04%	27.05%	37.91%	+0.19	+0.1	18
1966-10-09	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	37.3	1296	1277	54.19%	26.55%	19.25%	+0.63	+4.8	17
1966-10-09	@ Steinkjer	L 0-1	37.3	1277	1296	19.25%	26.55%	54.19%	-0.63	-4.8	14
1966-10-09	Hodd	L 2-4	54.0	1288	1239	57.13%	26.20%	16.68%	+0.81	-16.7	16
1966-10-09	@ Valerenga	W 4-2	54.0	1239	1288	16.68%	26.20%	57.13%	-0.81	+16.7	13
1966-10-16	Frigg Oslo	L 0-2	43.0	1256	1270	50.59%	26.85%	22.55%	+0.42	-19.3	13
1966-10-16	@ Hodd	W 2-0	43.0	1270	1256	22.55%	26.85%	50.59%	-0.42	+19.3	20
1966-10-16	Steinkjer	W 1-0	39.9	1240	1301	44.98%	27.08%	27.94%	+0.13	+6.4	13
1966-10-16	@ Lisleby	L 0-1	39.9	1301	1240	27.94%	27.08%	44.98%	-0.13	-6.4	17
1966-10-16	Fredrikstad	L 0-3	40.0	1272	1317	47.01%	27.03%	25.97%	+0.23	-26.2	14
1966-10-16	@ Sarpsborg	W 3-0	40.0	1317	1272	25.97%	27.03%	47.01%	-0.23	+26.3	22
1966-10-16	IF Odd	D 0-0	49.1	1321	1231	60.74%	25.57%	13.69%	+1.06	-2.5	23
1966-10-16	@ Skeid	D 0-0	49.1	1231	1321	13.69%	25.57%	60.74%	-1.06	+2.5	12
1966-10-17	Valerenga	D 1-1	53.5	1345	1271	59.44%	25.82%	14.73%	+0.97	-2.1	19
1966-10-17	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	53.5	1271	1345	14.73%	25.82%	59.44%	-0.97	+2.1	17
1966-10-23	Hodd	W 6-0	29.6	1343	1236	62.16%	25.26%	12.58%	+1.17	+17.2	24
1966-10-23	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-6	29.6	1236	1343	12.58%	25.26%	62.16%	-1.17	-17.2	13
1966-10-23	Skeid	L 0-1	46.5	1289	1318	48.87%	26.95%	24.18%	+0.33	-9.9	20
1966-10-23	@ Frigg Oslo	W 1-0	46.5	1318	1289	24.18%	26.95%	48.87%	-0.33	+9.9	25
1966-10-23	Lisleby	W 2-0	34.4	1234	1246	50.79%	26.84%	22.37%	+0.43	+10.2	14
1966-10-23	@ IF Odd	L 0-2	34.4	1246	1234	22.37%	26.84%	50.79%	-0.43	-10.2	13
1966-10-23	Lyn Oslo	L 1-4	45.0	1295	1343	46.50%	27.04%	26.46%	+0.21	-21.9	17
1966-10-23	@ Steinkjer	W 4-1	45.0	1343	1295	26.46%	27.04%	46.50%	-0.21	+21.9	21
1966-10-23	Sarpsborg	W 3-2	46.5	1273	1246	55.01%	26.47%	18.52%	+0.68	+4.1	19
1966-10-23	@ Valerenga	L 2-3	46.5	1246	1273	18.52%	26.47%	55.01%	-0.68	-4.1	14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1966-10-09	16.68%	Hodd	1239	4	@ Valerenga	1288	2
2	1966-06-18	17.04%	IF Odd	1230	1	@ Lisleby	1275	0
3	1966-05-01	17.80%	Frigg Oslo	1251	1	@ Steinkjer	1287	0
4	1966-06-05	18.11%	Valerenga	1269	3	@ Hodd	1301	1
5	1966-05-08	18.21%	Skeid	1276	3	@ Hodd	1307	2
6	1966-05-15	18.76%	Valerenga	1238	3	@ IF Odd	1262	1
7	1966-06-05	19.21%	Fredrikstad	1282	1	@ Skeid	1302	0
8	1966-04-24	19.47%	Skeid	1266	1	@ Valerenga	1283	0
9	1966-08-28	20.98%	Lisleby	1254	2	@ Hodd	1255	1
10	1966-05-30	21.51%	Skeid	1286	4	@ Steinkjer	1282	2
11	1966-10-16	22.55%	Frigg Oslo	1270	2	@ Hodd	1256	0
12	1966-05-08	22.89%	Steinkjer	1276	5	@ Valerenga	1258	2
13	1966-09-24	23.50%	Valerenga	1278	1	@ Lisleby	1255	0
14	1966-09-11	24.09%	Fredrikstad	1292	2	@ Lisleby	1264	1
15	1966-10-23	24.18%	Skeid	1318	1	@ Frigg Oslo	1289	0
16	1966-08-28	25.09%	Lyn Oslo	1325	2	@ Frigg Oslo	1288	0
17	1966-08-07	25.23%	Sarpsborg	1266	3	@ IF Odd	1228	1
18	1966-06-19	25.79%	Fredrikstad	1310	3	@ Hodd	1266	1
19	1966-10-16	25.97%	Fredrikstad	1317	3	@ Sarpsborg	1272	0
20	1966-05-30	26.40%	Hodd	1291	1	@ IF Odd	1243	0
21	1966-10-23	26.46%	Lyn Oslo	1343	4	@ Steinkjer	1295	1
22	1966-08-06	26.67%	Skeid	1315	1	@ Lisleby	1265	0
23	1966-05-08	27.86%	Lyn Oslo	1342	3	@ Sarpsborg	1282	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1966-10-16	26.26	Fredrikstad	3	1317	25.97%	@ Sarpsborg	0	1272	47.01%	27.03%
2	1966-10-23	21.94	Lyn Oslo	4	1343	26.46%	@ Steinkjer	1	1295	46.50%	27.04%
3	1966-05-15	20.77	@ Lisleby	6	1271	49.22%	Hodd	1	1297	23.85%	26.93%
4	1966-05-08	20.33	Steinkjer	5	1276	22.89%	@ Valerenga	2	1258	50.24%	26.88%
5	1966-08-12	19.67	@ IF Odd	3	1212	40.49%	Fredrikstad	0	1307	32.41%	27.09%
6	1966-10-16	19.28	Frigg Oslo	2	1270	22.55%	@ Hodd	0	1256	50.59%	26.85%
7	1966-08-28	18.38	Lyn Oslo	2	1325	25.09%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1288	47.92%	26.99%
8	1966-06-05	18.17	Valerenga	3	1269	18.11%	@ Hodd	1	1301	55.48%	26.41%
9	1966-06-16	18.07	@ Valerenga	3	1287	43.98%	Lyn Oslo	0	1356	28.93%	27.09%
10	1966-05-15	17.94	Valerenga	3	1238	18.76%	@ IF Odd	1	1262	54.75%	26.50%
11	1966-06-19	17.23	@ Sarpsborg	3	1251	45.78%	Valerenga	0	1305	27.16%	27.06%
12	1966-10-23	17.18	@ Fredrikstad	6	1343	62.16%	Hodd	0	1236	12.58%	25.26%
13	1966-08-08	17.00	@ Valerenga	3	1274	46.28%	Fredrikstad	0	1324	26.67%	27.05%
14	1966-10-09	16.70	Hodd	4	1239	16.68%	@ Valerenga	2	1288	57.13%	26.20%
15	1966-06-15	16.66	@ Fredrikstad	4	1293	54.86%	Sarpsborg	0	1267	18.66%	26.48%
16	1966-06-15	16.41	@ Frigg Oslo	5	1265	50.24%	Hodd	1	1283	22.88%	26.87%
17	1966-08-07	15.87	Sarpsborg	3	1266	25.23%	@ IF Odd	1	1228	47.77%	27.00%
18	1966-06-19	15.71	Fredrikstad	3	1310	25.79%	@ Hodd	1	1266	47.19%	27.02%
19	1966-05-23	15.30	@ Hodd	3	1276	49.79%	Steinkjer	0	1297	23.30%	26.90%
20	1966-05-30	15.23	Skeid	4	1286	21.51%	@ Steinkjer	2	1282	51.71%	26.78%
21	1966-08-16	15.12	@ Frigg Oslo	3	1272	50.16%	Valerenga	0	1291	22.96%	26.88%
22	1966-05-08	15.11	Lyn Oslo	3	1342	27.86%	@ Sarpsborg	1	1282	45.06%	27.08%
23	1966-07-31	14.62	@ Skeid	5	1301	53.53%	Valerenga	1	1288	19.85%	26.62%
24	1966-05-01	14.21	@ Fredrikstad	3	1270	51.97%	Valerenga	0	1272	21.27%	26.76%
25	1966-07-31	13.58	@ Steinkjer	5	1272	55.39%	IF Odd	1	1242	18.18%	26.42%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1966-08-03	62.4	@ Fredrikstad	3	1325	57.50%	Frigg Oslo	3	1273	16.36%	26.14%
2	1966-08-03	58.6	@ Lyn Oslo	2	1342	59.81%	Lisleby	2	1263	14.44%	25.76%
3	1966-08-28	58.3	@ Sarpsborg	2	1283	46.78%	Skeid	2	1330	26.19%	27.03%
4	1966-04-24	58.2	@ Lisleby	2	1268	43.17%	Lyn Oslo	2	1343	29.73%	27.10%
5	1966-05-01	58.0	@ Skeid	2	1277	53.16%	Lisleby	2	1268	20.18%	26.65%
6	1966-05-08	57.8	Skeid	3	1276	18.21%	@ Hodd	2	1307	55.37%	26.42%
7	1966-09-25	57.7	@ Hodd	2	1240	53.21%	IF Odd	2	1230	20.14%	26.65%
8	1966-10-09	54.0	Hodd	4	1239	16.68%	@ Valerenga	2	1288	57.13%	26.20%
9	1966-05-23	53.7	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1355	59.10%	Skeid	1	1284	15.02%	25.88%
10	1966-05-01	53.6	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1344	56.16%	Hodd	1	1305	17.51%	26.33%
11	1966-09-22	53.6	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1347	56.79%	Fredrikstad	1	1302	16.97%	26.24%
12	1966-09-25	53.5	@ Skeid	1	1336	56.44%	Steinkjer	1	1294	17.27%	26.29%
13	1966-10-17	53.5	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1345	59.44%	Valerenga	1	1271	14.73%	25.82%
14	1966-05-08	52.9	@ Fredrikstad	1	1285	53.83%	Lisleby	1	1269	19.58%	26.59%
15	1966-10-09	52.9	@ IF Odd	1	1232	37.91%	Lyn Oslo	1	1345	35.04%	27.05%
16	1966-06-05	52.8	@ Sarpsborg	1	1269	52.37%	Steinkjer	1	1267	20.90%	26.72%
17	1966-08-07	52.8	@ Frigg Oslo	1	1274	50.80%	Steinkjer	1	1286	22.36%	26.84%
18	1966-05-30	52.7	Skeid	4	1286	21.51%	@ Steinkjer	2	1282	51.71%	26.78%
19	1966-07-31	52.7	@ Sarpsborg	1	1268	54.00%	Hodd	1	1251	19.42%	26.57%
20	1966-06-15	52.6	@ IF Odd	1	1231	45.13%	Skeid	1	1291	27.80%	27.07%
21	1966-08-28	51.8	Lisleby	2	1254	20.98%	@ Hodd	1	1255	52.29%	26.73%
22	1966-09-11	51.1	Fredrikstad	2	1292	24.09%	@ Lisleby	1	1264	48.97%	26.94%
23	1966-06-05	49.7	Valerenga	3	1269	18.11%	@ Hodd	1	1301	55.48%	26.41%
24	1966-05-15	49.6	@ Lyn Oslo	0	1357	60.73%	Frigg Oslo	0	1268	13.69%	25.57%
25	1966-05-15	49.2	Valerenga	3	1238	18.76%	@ IF Odd	1	1262	54.75%	26.50%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1966-10-23	29.6	@ Fredrikstad	6	1343	62.16%	Hodd	0	1236	12.58%	25.26%
2	1966-06-15	30.4	@ Fredrikstad	4	1293	54.86%	Sarpsborg	0	1267	18.66%	26.48%
3	1966-05-01	31.9	@ Fredrikstad	3	1270	51.97%	Valerenga	0	1272	21.27%	26.76%
4	1966-08-16	32.6	@ Frigg Oslo	3	1272	50.16%	Valerenga	0	1291	22.96%	26.88%
5	1966-05-23	32.7	@ Hodd	3	1276	49.79%	Steinkjer	0	1297	23.30%	26.90%
6	1966-06-19	33.9	@ Sarpsborg	3	1251	45.78%	Valerenga	0	1305	27.16%	27.06%
7	1966-08-08	33.9	@ Valerenga	3	1274	46.28%	Fredrikstad	0	1324	26.67%	27.05%
8	1966-06-20	34.1	@ Skeid	2	1291	53.20%	Frigg Oslo	0	1282	20.15%	26.65%
9	1966-07-31	34.1	@ Steinkjer	5	1272	55.39%	IF Odd	1	1242	18.18%	26.42%
10	1966-10-23	34.4	@ IF Odd	2	1234	50.79%	Lisleby	0	1246	22.37%	26.84%
11	1966-06-16	35.0	@ Valerenga	3	1287	43.98%	Lyn Oslo	0	1356	28.93%	27.09%
12	1966-07-31	35.0	@ Skeid	5	1301	53.53%	Valerenga	1	1288	19.85%	26.62%
13	1966-08-12	35.3	@ IF Odd	3	1212	40.49%	Fredrikstad	0	1307	32.41%	27.09%
14	1966-05-15	35.6	@ Lisleby	6	1271	49.22%	Hodd	1	1297	23.85%	26.93%
15	1966-06-15	35.8	@ Frigg Oslo	5	1265	50.24%	Hodd	1	1283	22.88%	26.87%
16	1966-09-11	36.5	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1343	58.19%	Sarpsborg	0	1283	15.78%	26.04%
17	1966-10-09	37.0	@ Frigg Oslo	1	1265	54.33%	Lisleby	0	1245	19.13%	26.54%
18	1966-10-09	37.3	@ Steinkjer	1	1296	54.19%	Sarpsborg	0	1277	19.25%	26.55%
19	1966-06-05	37.6	@ Lisleby	1	1278	52.94%	Frigg Oslo	0	1270	20.39%	26.67%
20	1966-05-01	37.7	@ Sarpsborg	1	1277	52.62%	IF Odd	0	1273	20.68%	26.70%
21	1966-05-08	37.9	@ Frigg Oslo	1	1263	51.63%	IF Odd	0	1268	21.59%	26.78%
22	1966-08-28	37.9	@ Valerenga	3	1275	56.63%	IF Odd	1	1232	17.10%	26.26%
23	1966-05-31	38.1	@ Frigg Oslo	1	1265	51.19%	Sarpsborg	0	1274	22.00%	26.81%
24	1966-08-12	38.3	@ Steinkjer	3	1287	55.80%	Hodd	1	1252	17.83%	26.37%
25	1966-10-09	38.3	@ Fredrikstad	4	1304	48.72%	Skeid	1	1334	24.33%	26.96%