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1967 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

IF Odd

12 pts

Steinkjer · 15 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Rosenborg

4.99 points above expected

25 points · 20.01 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

IF Odd

3.39 points below expected

12 points · 15.39 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg Champion 18 9 7 2 25 40 24 +16 20.01 +4.99
2 Skeid 18 10 2 6 22 42 26 +16 18.86 +3.14
3 Lyn Oslo 18 9 3 6 21 39 30 +9 20.45 +0.55
4 Frigg Oslo 18 8 4 6 20 22 22 0 18.17 +1.83
5 Valerenga 18 7 4 7 18 27 33 -6 17.06 +0.94
6 Fredrikstad 18 7 2 9 16 27 25 +2 18.86 -2.86
7 Sarpsborg 18 5 6 7 16 18 24 -6 17.03 -1.03
8 Stromsgodset 18 7 1 10 15 30 34 -4 17.23 -2.23
9 Steinkjer Relegated 18 5 5 8 15 21 31 -10 16.94 -1.94
10 IF Odd Relegated 18 5 2 11 12 18 35 -17 15.39 -3.39

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rosenborg 25 20.01 +4.99
2 Skeid 22 18.86 +3.14
3 Frigg Oslo 20 18.17 +1.83
4 Valerenga 18 17.06 +0.94
5 Lyn Oslo 21 20.45 +0.55

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 IF Odd 12 15.39 -3.39
2 Fredrikstad 16 18.86 -2.86
3 Stromsgodset 15 17.23 -2.23
4 Steinkjer 15 16.94 -1.94
5 Sarpsborg 16 17.03 -1.03

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Valerenga 3 Sep 7 – Oct 6 1 in 29
2 Frigg Oslo 3 Oct 8 – Oct 22 1 in 27
3 Steinkjer 3 May 28 – Jun 11 1 in 20
4 Skeid 4 Aug 10 – Sep 17 1 in 16
5 Sarpsborg 2 Apr 30 – May 7 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Stromsgodset 5 May 4 – May 25 1 in 38
2 Sarpsborg 3 Jun 4 – Jun 18 1 in 14
3 IF Odd 4 Sep 10 – Oct 15 1 in 14
4 Skeid 3 Apr 28 – May 10 1 in 14
5 Frigg Oslo 3 Jun 22 – Aug 6 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Rosenborg 9 Jun 4 – Sep 17 1 in 38
2 Skeid 7 Aug 10 – Oct 22 1 in 17
3 Valerenga 5 Apr 30 – May 22 1 in 12
4 Frigg Oslo 4 Sep 17 – Oct 22 1 in 7
5 Fredrikstad 4 Jun 11 – Aug 7 1 in 7

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Sarpsborg 7 Jun 4 – Aug 16 1 in 25
2 Lyn Oslo 3 May 11 – May 22 1 in 11
3 Steinkjer 5 Apr 30 – May 19 1 in 10
4 Valerenga 4 May 28 – Jun 19 1 in 8
5 Frigg Oslo 4 Jun 22 – Aug 9 1 in 6

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rosenborg 1356 25 -5 5 5.6 -0.6
Skeid 1381 22 +50 9 5.3 +3.7
Lyn Oslo 1365 21 -12 4 5.3 -1.3
Frigg Oslo 1291 20 +16 7 5.4 +1.6
Valerenga 1261 18 +7 6 4.8 +1.2
Sarpsborg 1242 16 +4 5 4.8 +0.2
Fredrikstad 1325 16 -14 4 5.3 -1.3
Stromsgodset 1274 15 +7 5 5.0 +0.0
Steinkjer 1234 15 -24 4 4.7 -0.7
IF Odd 1207 12 -27 1 3.8 -2.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team FRE FO IO LO ROS SAR SKE STE STR VAL
Fredrikstad —
0-0-2
3.09
2-0-0
3.34
0-1-1
2.69
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.18
1-0-1
2.98
0-0-2
3.25
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.05
Frigg Oslo
2-0-0
2.50
 —
1-1-0
3.05
0-0-2
2.47
0-2-0
2.37
2-0-0
2.88
0-0-2
2.63
0-1-1
2.91
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
2.88
IF Odd
0-0-2
2.25
0-1-1
2.53
 —
1-0-1
2.19
0-1-1
1.99
0-0-2
2.70
1-0-1
2.39
2-0-0
2.43
1-0-1
2.49
0-0-2
2.60
Lyn Oslo
1-1-0
2.90
2-0-0
3.11
1-0-1
3.40
 —
1-0-1
2.81
1-1-0
3.28
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
3.18
1-0-1
3.37
0-0-2
3.39
Rosenborg
1-1-0
2.74
0-2-0
3.21
1-1-0
3.60
1-0-1
2.77
 —
0-1-1
3.21
2-0-0
2.88
1-1-0
3.33
2-0-0
3.11
1-1-0
3.16
Sarpsborg
1-0-1
2.40
0-0-2
2.70
2-0-0
2.88
0-1-1
2.31
1-1-0
2.37
 —
0-1-1
2.52
1-1-0
2.68
0-1-1
2.71
0-1-1
2.71
Skeid
1-0-1
2.60
2-0-0
2.95
1-0-1
3.20
1-0-1
2.60
0-0-2
2.70
1-1-0
3.05
 —
2-0-0
3.10
1-0-1
2.94
1-1-0
2.91
Steinkjer
2-0-0
2.33
1-1-0
2.67
0-0-2
3.15
0-1-1
2.40
0-1-1
2.25
0-1-1
2.91
0-0-2
2.48
 —
1-0-1
2.81
1-1-0
2.75
Stromsgodset
0-0-2
2.47
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
3.09
1-0-1
2.21
0-0-2
2.47
1-1-0
2.87
1-0-1
2.64
1-0-1
2.77
 —
1-0-1
2.71
Valerenga
1-0-1
2.53
0-0-2
2.70
2-0-0
2.98
2-0-0
2.19
0-1-1
2.42
1-1-0
2.87
0-1-1
2.68
0-1-1
2.83
1-0-1
2.87
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.63 +3.4
Allowed 0.33 -4.8
Differential 0.84 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%8.33%5.56%1.67%3.89%0.56%25.56%
18.33%7.78%7.22%3.33%2.22%—28.89%
25.56%7.22%4.44%2.78%2.22%1.11%23.33%
31.67%3.33%2.78%2.22%0.56%0.56%11.11%
43.89%2.22%2.22%0.56%——8.89%
5+0.56%—1.11%0.56%——2.22%
Total25.56%28.89%23.33%11.11%8.89%2.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.58 1.58 +0.00
SD 1.41 1.41 2.04
CV 0.90 0.90 —
Max 8 8 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
15.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%27.78%38.89%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.39 +0.11
SD 1.15 0.98 1.68
CV 0.77 0.70 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%——5.56%—33.33%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
25.56%22.22%5.56%———33.33%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%55.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.06 1.11 1.50
CV 0.87 0.91 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%11.11%—5.56%38.89%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
25.56%16.67%—5.56%——27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%50.00%11.11%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.94 -0.94
SD 0.97 1.47 2.04
CV 0.97 0.76 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—5.56%———16.67%
15.56%5.56%11.11%—5.56%—27.78%
25.56%5.56%——11.11%—22.22%
3—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
Total27.78%16.67%33.33%5.56%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.17 1.67 +0.50
SD 2.01 1.41 2.26
CV 0.93 0.85 —
Max 8 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
15.56%11.11%————16.67%
25.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
45.56%——5.56%——11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total27.78%33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.22 1.33 +0.89
SD 1.70 1.19 2.11
CV 0.76 0.89 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%—33.33%
116.67%11.11%11.11%———38.89%
25.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%27.78%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.33 -0.33
SD 0.91 1.37 1.71
CV 0.91 1.03 —
Max 3 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—————5.56%
116.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%——38.89%
2—————5.56%5.56%
3—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
422.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
5+———————
Total44.44%16.67%16.67%5.56%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.44 +0.89
SD 1.46 1.76 2.30
CV 0.62 1.22 —
Max 4 5 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
111.11%11.11%11.11%———33.33%
216.67%—5.56%—5.56%5.56%33.33%
3———5.56%——5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%22.22%5.56%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.72 -0.56
SD 0.92 2.05 2.06
CV 0.79 1.19 —
Max 3 8 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%11.11%—11.11%—38.89%
15.56%——11.11%——16.67%
2———11.11%——11.11%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—16.67%11.11%———27.78%
5+———————
Total11.11%33.33%22.22%22.22%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.89 -0.22
SD 1.71 1.23 2.32
CV 1.03 0.65 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%—11.11%—5.56%—22.22%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%—38.89%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%—11.11%5.56%——22.22%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total22.22%16.67%33.33%11.11%16.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.83 -0.33
SD 1.25 1.38 1.97
CV 0.83 0.75 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Skeid 1381 22 18.86 +3.14 83.0% 10 13 17 18 21 25 27
Lyn Oslo 1365 21 20.45 +0.55 63.0% 11 15 18 20 23 26 29
Rosenborg 1356 25 20.01 +4.99 93.0% 13 15 18 20 21 26 30
Fredrikstad 1325 16 18.86 -2.86 25.0% 10 13 16 19 22 24 29
Frigg Oslo 1291 20 18.17 +1.83 73.0% 9 13 16 18 21 24 26
Stromsgodset 1274 15 17.23 -2.23 34.0% 11 12 15 17 20 23 27
Valerenga 1261 18 17.06 +0.94 66.0% 10 12 15 17 19 24 28
Sarpsborg 1242 16 17.03 -1.03 47.0% 8 12 15 17 20 23 26
Steinkjer 1234 15 16.94 -1.94 34.0% 8 11 14 17 20 23 25
IF Odd 1207 12 15.39 -3.39 22.0% 7 8 13 15 18 21 23

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+26.67%
Strong Edge
53.33%20.00%26.67%
Elo Value
Home Edge
145 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
094.94400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.64 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.66+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
6.5
Wide Open
134610
Champion Preseason Odds
18%
Rosenborg, 2nd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Tight Race
00.110.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.79 * Some Luck: 2.79 to 4.19 * Lucky: 4.19 to 5.58 * Wild Swing: 5.58 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2 * Close: 2 to 3.01 * Off: 3.01 to 4.01 * Way Off: 4.01 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.22 * A Surprise: 1.22 to 1.95 * Several Surprises: 1.95 to 2.68 * Many Surprises: 2.68 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.62 points
As Expected
03.499
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.30
Pinpoint
02.506
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.00%
Rosenborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
22.00%
IF Odd
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.12
Balanced
00.140.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 60.32
1.04
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.351.551.752.5
Interquartile Edge
64%
Slight Edge
50%61.5%69.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
73%
Even
50%76%100%
Close Games
Expected
58%
Some Drama
0%54%100%
Blowouts
Expected
19%
Occasional
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.582
Matchup Imbalance
0.43
Lopsided
00.320.380.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.61
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.59
Strong Carryover
00.280.481
Upset Rate
Expected
27%
Upset-Prone
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Shaky
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.27 * Well Above Noise: 0.27 and up.
Probability calibration
0.64
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.80
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.089
Well Within Noise
00.1360.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rosenborg18.00%14.00%15.00%22.00%9.00%6.00%8.00%6.00%1.00%1.00%
Skeid17.00%7.00%14.00%9.00%12.00%18.00%6.00%5.00%9.00%3.00%
Lyn Oslo25.00%22.00%15.00%9.00%9.00%11.00%3.00%3.00%2.00%1.00%
Frigg Oslo10.00%6.00%10.00%12.00%10.00%14.00%8.00%14.00%12.00%4.00%
Valerenga6.00%4.00%8.00%9.00%11.00%6.00%14.00%16.00%15.00%11.00%
Fredrikstad10.00%17.00%12.00%11.00%13.00%4.00%14.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%
Sarpsborg5.00%9.00%6.00%7.00%8.00%10.00%10.00%20.00%11.00%14.00%
Stromsgodset6.00%8.00%8.00%6.00%14.00%8.00%14.00%9.00%16.00%11.00%
Steinkjer3.00%8.00%7.00%8.00%8.00%12.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%18.00%
IF Odd—5.00%5.00%7.00%6.00%11.00%9.00%9.00%16.00%32.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rosenborg 98.00% 2.00%
Lyn Oslo 97.00% 3.00%
Fredrikstad 89.00% 11.00%
Skeid 88.00% 12.00%
Frigg Oslo 84.00% 16.00%
Sarpsborg 75.00% 25.00%
Valerenga 74.00% 26.00%
Stromsgodset 73.00% 27.00%
Steinkjer 70.00% 30.00%
IF Odd 52.00% 48.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1967-04-27 Frigg Oslo W 1-035.6 1331 1284 61.96% 20.65% 17.40%+0.98 +3.6 2
1967-04-27 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-135.6 1284 1331 17.40% 20.65% 61.96%-0.98 -3.6 0
1967-04-28 Skeid W 3-138.9 1296 1310 55.82% 21.03% 23.16%+0.56 +7.5 2
1967-04-28 @ Stromsgodset L 1-338.9 1310 1296 23.16% 21.03% 55.82%-0.56 -7.5 0
1967-04-30 Fredrikstad W 2-142.7 1297 1330 53.78% 21.10% 25.12%+0.43 +4.6 2
1967-04-30 @ Rosenborg L 1-242.7 1330 1297 25.12% 21.10% 53.78%-0.43 -4.6 0
1967-04-30 Steinkjer W 1-037.1 1262 1280 55.39% 21.04% 23.57%+0.53 +4.6 2
1967-04-30 @ Sarpsborg L 0-137.1 1280 1262 23.57% 21.04% 55.39%-0.53 -4.6 0
1967-04-30 IF Odd W 3-030.0 1282 1264 59.21% 20.85% 19.94%+0.78 +11.0 2
1967-04-30 @ Valerenga L 0-330.0 1264 1282 19.94% 20.85% 59.21%-0.78 -11.0 0
1967-05-04 Stromsgodset W 1-037.5 1280 1303 54.86% 21.06% 24.07%+0.50 +4.7 2
1967-05-04 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-137.5 1303 1280 24.07% 21.06% 54.86%-0.50 -4.7 2
1967-05-06 Lyn Oslo L 0-241.2 1253 1334 47.77% 21.20% 31.02%+0.09 -15.7 0
1967-05-06 @ IF Odd W 2-041.2 1334 1253 31.02% 21.20% 47.77%-0.09 +15.6 4
1967-05-07 Sarpsborg L 0-245.6 1325 1267 63.01% 20.55% 16.44%+1.06 -20.3 0
1967-05-07 @ Fredrikstad W 2-045.6 1267 1325 16.44% 20.55% 63.01%-1.06 +20.3 4
1967-05-07 Rosenborg L 2-549.6 1303 1302 57.41% 20.95% 21.63%+0.66 -19.7 0
1967-05-07 @ Skeid W 5-249.6 1302 1303 21.63% 20.95% 57.41%-0.66 +19.7 4
1967-05-07 Valerenga D 1-154.5 1276 1293 55.49% 21.04% 23.48%+0.54 -1.3 1
1967-05-07 @ Steinkjer D 1-154.5 1293 1276 23.48% 21.04% 55.49%-0.54 +1.3 3
1967-05-10 Skeid W 2-140.7 1305 1283 59.61% 20.82% 19.57%+0.81 +3.7 2
1967-05-10 @ Fredrikstad L 1-240.7 1283 1305 19.57% 20.82% 59.61%-0.81 -3.7 0
1967-05-10 Stromsgodset W 3-140.1 1237 1298 50.32% 21.18% 28.50%+0.23 +8.9 2
1967-05-10 @ IF Odd L 1-340.1 1298 1237 28.50% 21.18% 50.32%-0.23 -8.9 2
1967-05-10 Frigg Oslo D 0-051.0 1322 1285 61.02% 20.72% 18.25%+0.91 -1.9 5
1967-05-10 @ Rosenborg D 0-051.0 1285 1322 18.25% 20.72% 61.02%-0.91 +1.9 3
1967-05-10 Sarpsborg W 1-036.5 1294 1287 58.12% 20.91% 20.97%+0.71 +4.2 5
1967-05-10 @ Valerenga L 0-136.5 1287 1294 20.97% 20.91% 58.12%-0.71 -4.2 4
1967-05-11 Steinkjer D 0-051.3 1350 1274 64.46% 20.40% 15.14%+1.18 -2.3 5
1967-05-11 @ Lyn Oslo D 0-051.3 1274 1350 15.14% 20.40% 64.46%-1.18 +2.3 2
1967-05-15 IF Odd L 1-252.6 1277 1246 60.43% 20.77% 18.80%+0.87 -9.7 2
1967-05-15 @ Steinkjer W 2-152.6 1246 1277 18.80% 20.77% 60.43%-0.87 +9.7 4
1967-05-15 Rosenborg L 0-146.6 1290 1320 54.03% 21.09% 24.88%+0.45 -9.3 2
1967-05-15 @ Stromsgodset W 1-046.6 1320 1290 24.88% 21.09% 54.03%-0.45 +9.3 7
1967-05-16 Fredrikstad W 2-142.1 1287 1309 54.99% 21.06% 23.95%+0.51 +4.4 5
1967-05-16 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-242.1 1309 1287 23.95% 21.06% 54.99%-0.51 -4.4 2
1967-05-16 Lyn Oslo D 0-051.1 1283 1348 49.87% 21.18% 28.94%+0.21 -0.9 5
1967-05-16 @ Sarpsborg D 0-051.1 1348 1283 28.94% 21.18% 49.87%-0.21 +0.9 6
1967-05-18 Skeid D 0-050.8 1298 1279 59.32% 20.84% 19.83%+0.79 -1.8 6
1967-05-18 @ Valerenga D 0-050.8 1279 1298 19.83% 20.84% 59.32%-0.79 +1.8 1
1967-05-19 Steinkjer W 2-139.6 1329 1267 63.33% 20.52% 16.15%+1.09 +3.1 9
1967-05-19 @ Rosenborg L 1-239.6 1267 1329 16.15% 20.52% 63.33%-1.09 -3.1 2
1967-05-20 Stromsgodset W 4-029.1 1304 1280 59.80% 20.81% 19.39%+0.82 +14.0 4
1967-05-20 @ Fredrikstad L 0-429.1 1280 1304 19.39% 20.81% 59.80%-0.82 -14.0 2
1967-05-21 Sarpsborg L 0-146.4 1256 1282 54.52% 21.07% 24.41%+0.48 -9.4 4
1967-05-21 @ IF Odd W 1-046.4 1282 1256 24.41% 21.07% 54.52%-0.48 +9.4 7
1967-05-22 Valerenga L 1-253.9 1348 1297 62.42% 20.61% 16.98%+1.02 -10.0 6
1967-05-22 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-153.9 1297 1348 16.98% 20.61% 62.42%-1.02 +10.0 8
1967-05-25 Stromsgodset W 3-244.3 1338 1266 64.18% 20.43% 15.39%+1.16 +2.8 8
1967-05-25 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-344.3 1266 1338 15.39% 20.43% 64.18%-1.16 -2.9 2
1967-05-28 Skeid W 2-142.2 1246 1281 53.54% 21.11% 25.36%+0.42 +4.7 6
1967-05-28 @ IF Odd L 1-242.2 1281 1246 25.36% 21.11% 53.54%-0.42 -4.7 1
1967-05-28 Rosenborg W 1-038.4 1291 1332 52.77% 21.13% 26.10%+0.37 +5.1 9
1967-05-28 @ Sarpsborg L 0-138.4 1332 1291 26.10% 21.13% 52.77%-0.37 -5.1 9
1967-05-28 Frigg Oslo W 1-037.5 1264 1291 54.32% 21.08% 24.59%+0.47 +4.8 4
1967-05-28 @ Steinkjer L 0-137.5 1291 1264 24.59% 21.08% 54.32%-0.47 -4.8 5
1967-05-28 Fredrikstad L 0-243.9 1307 1318 56.11% 21.01% 22.87%+0.58 -18.1 8
1967-05-28 @ Valerenga W 2-043.9 1318 1307 22.87% 21.01% 56.11%-0.58 +18.1 6
1967-06-04 Steinkjer L 0-149.4 1336 1268 63.81% 20.47% 15.72%+1.13 -10.9 6
1967-06-04 @ Fredrikstad W 1-049.4 1268 1336 15.72% 20.47% 63.81%-1.13 +10.9 6
1967-06-04 IF Odd D 1-154.5 1287 1251 60.90% 20.73% 18.37%+0.90 -1.7 6
1967-06-04 @ Frigg Oslo D 1-154.5 1251 1287 18.37% 20.73% 60.90%-0.90 +1.7 7
1967-06-04 Lyn Oslo W 2-034.4 1327 1341 55.84% 21.02% 23.14%+0.56 +8.6 11
1967-06-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-234.4 1341 1327 23.14% 21.02% 55.84%-0.56 -8.6 8
1967-06-04 Sarpsborg W 4-030.4 1276 1296 55.20% 21.05% 23.75%+0.52 +16.7 3
1967-06-04 @ Skeid L 0-430.4 1296 1276 23.75% 21.05% 55.20%-0.52 -16.7 9
1967-06-04 Valerenga W 4-136.2 1263 1288 54.61% 21.07% 24.31%+0.48 +11.0 4
1967-06-04 @ Stromsgodset L 1-436.2 1288 1263 24.31% 21.07% 54.61%-0.48 -11.0 8
1967-06-11 Fredrikstad L 0-144.9 1253 1325 48.89% 21.19% 29.91%+0.15 -8.5 7
1967-06-11 @ IF Odd W 1-044.9 1325 1253 29.91% 21.19% 48.89%-0.15 +8.5 8
1967-06-11 Stromsgodset W 2-032.9 1279 1274 57.88% 20.93% 21.19%+0.69 +8.0 8
1967-06-11 @ Steinkjer L 0-232.9 1274 1279 21.19% 20.93% 57.88%-0.69 -8.0 4
1967-06-11 Rosenborg D 3-363.9 1277 1336 50.69% 21.17% 28.14%+0.25 -0.5 9
1967-06-11 @ Valerenga D 3-363.9 1336 1277 28.14% 21.17% 50.69%-0.25 +0.5 12
1967-06-12 Frigg Oslo L 1-251.8 1279 1285 56.80% 20.98% 22.22%+0.62 -9.2 9
1967-06-12 @ Sarpsborg W 2-151.8 1285 1279 22.22% 20.98% 56.80%-0.62 +9.2 8
1967-06-13 Skeid W 5-343.7 1333 1293 61.29% 20.70% 18.00%+0.93 +5.1 10
1967-06-13 @ Lyn Oslo L 3-543.7 1293 1333 18.00% 20.70% 61.29%-0.93 -5.1 3
1967-06-18 IF Odd W 6-028.3 1336 1244 65.78% 20.24% 13.98%+1.29 +15.3 14
1967-06-18 @ Rosenborg L 0-628.3 1244 1336 13.98% 20.24% 65.78%-1.29 -15.3 7
1967-06-18 Steinkjer W 1-036.7 1288 1287 57.42% 20.95% 21.63%+0.66 +4.3 5
1967-06-18 @ Skeid L 0-136.7 1287 1288 21.63% 20.95% 57.42%-0.66 -4.3 8
1967-06-18 Sarpsborg W 4-242.2 1266 1270 56.94% 20.97% 22.08%+0.63 +6.4 6
1967-06-18 @ Stromsgodset L 2-442.2 1270 1266 22.08% 20.97% 56.94%-0.63 -6.4 9
1967-06-19 Lyn Oslo D 1-155.4 1334 1338 56.96% 20.97% 22.06%+0.63 -1.4 9
1967-06-19 @ Fredrikstad D 1-155.4 1338 1334 22.06% 20.97% 56.96%-0.63 +1.4 11
1967-06-19 Valerenga W 3-137.7 1294 1277 59.11% 20.86% 20.03%+0.77 +6.6 10
1967-06-19 @ Frigg Oslo L 1-337.7 1277 1294 20.03% 20.86% 59.11%-0.77 -6.6 9
1967-06-22 Frigg Oslo W 4-030.1 1292 1301 56.48% 21.00% 22.53%+0.60 +16.0 7
1967-06-22 @ Skeid L 0-430.1 1301 1292 22.53% 21.00% 56.48%-0.60 -16.0 10
1967-07-30 Rosenborg D 2-260.5 1333 1352 55.31% 21.05% 23.65%+0.53 -0.9 10
1967-07-30 @ Fredrikstad D 2-260.5 1352 1333 23.65% 21.05% 55.31%-0.53 +0.9 15
1967-07-30 Sarpsborg D 2-259.5 1283 1264 59.32% 20.84% 19.83%+0.79 -1.2 9
1967-07-30 @ Steinkjer D 2-259.5 1264 1283 19.83% 20.84% 59.32%-0.79 +1.2 10
1967-07-31 Lyn Oslo L 1-347.4 1285 1339 51.15% 21.16% 27.68%+0.28 -14.4 10
1967-07-31 @ Frigg Oslo W 3-147.4 1339 1285 27.68% 21.16% 51.15%-0.28 +14.4 13
1967-07-31 Valerenga L 2-355.1 1229 1270 52.75% 21.13% 26.12%+0.37 -8.1 7
1967-07-31 @ IF Odd W 3-255.1 1270 1229 26.12% 21.13% 52.75%-0.37 +8.1 11
1967-08-02 Stromsgodset W 4-028.7 1308 1273 60.90% 20.73% 18.36%+0.90 +13.4 9
1967-08-02 @ Skeid L 0-428.7 1273 1308 18.36% 20.73% 60.90%-0.90 -13.4 6
1967-08-06 IF Odd L 1-255.1 1354 1221 68.76% 19.80% 11.44%+1.57 -11.1 13
1967-08-06 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-155.1 1221 1354 11.44% 19.80% 68.76%-1.57 +11.1 9
1967-08-06 Skeid W 4-349.1 1352 1322 60.46% 20.76% 18.77%+0.87 +3.3 17
1967-08-06 @ Rosenborg L 3-449.1 1322 1352 18.77% 20.76% 60.46%-0.87 -3.3 9
1967-08-06 Frigg Oslo W 1-036.8 1259 1270 56.21% 21.01% 22.78%+0.58 +4.5 8
1967-08-06 @ Stromsgodset L 0-136.8 1270 1259 22.78% 21.01% 56.21%-0.58 -4.5 10
1967-08-06 Steinkjer L 0-243.7 1278 1282 57.00% 20.97% 22.03%+0.63 -18.4 11
1967-08-06 @ Valerenga W 2-043.7 1282 1278 22.03% 20.97% 57.00%-0.63 +18.4 11
1967-08-07 Fredrikstad L 0-339.3 1265 1332 49.66% 21.19% 29.15%+0.20 -23.5 10
1967-08-07 @ Sarpsborg W 3-039.3 1332 1265 29.15% 21.19% 49.66%-0.20 +23.5 12
1967-08-09 Rosenborg D 2-259.8 1266 1356 46.62% 21.21% 32.17%+0.03 -0.4 11
1967-08-09 @ Frigg Oslo D 2-259.8 1356 1266 32.17% 21.21% 46.62%-0.03 +0.4 18
1967-08-09 IF Odd W 4-134.2 1264 1232 60.57% 20.76% 18.68%+0.88 +8.8 10
1967-08-09 @ Stromsgodset L 1-434.2 1232 1264 18.68% 20.76% 60.57%-0.88 -8.8 9
1967-08-10 Valerenga D 1-154.2 1242 1260 55.36% 21.04% 23.60%+0.53 -1.2 11
1967-08-10 @ Sarpsborg D 1-154.2 1260 1242 23.60% 21.04% 55.36%-0.53 +1.2 12
1967-08-10 Fredrikstad W 1-038.7 1318 1355 53.26% 21.11% 25.62%+0.40 +5.0 11
1967-08-10 @ Skeid L 0-138.7 1355 1318 25.62% 21.11% 53.26%-0.40 -5.0 12
1967-08-16 Sarpsborg W 2-138.6 1342 1240 66.56% 20.14% 13.30%+1.36 +2.6 15
1967-08-16 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-238.6 1240 1342 13.30% 20.14% 66.56%-1.36 -2.6 11
1967-08-16 Steinkjer W 2-035.7 1223 1300 48.33% 21.20% 30.47%+0.12 +10.9 11
1967-08-16 @ IF Odd L 0-235.7 1300 1223 30.47% 21.20% 48.33%-0.12 -10.9 11
1967-08-20 Lyn Oslo L 2-843.3 1289 1345 51.02% 21.17% 27.82%+0.27 -31.5 11
1967-08-20 @ Steinkjer W 8-243.3 1345 1289 27.82% 21.17% 51.02%-0.27 +31.5 17
1967-08-20 Stromsgodset W 3-136.3 1356 1273 65.10% 20.33% 14.57%+1.23 +5.0 20
1967-08-20 @ Rosenborg L 1-336.3 1273 1356 14.57% 20.33% 65.10%-1.23 -5.0 10
1967-08-21 Frigg Oslo L 1-254.4 1350 1265 65.22% 20.31% 14.47%+1.24 -10.5 12
1967-08-21 @ Fredrikstad W 2-154.4 1265 1350 14.47% 20.31% 65.22%-1.24 +10.5 13
1967-08-21 Valerenga W 4-133.8 1323 1261 63.30% 20.52% 16.17%+1.09 +7.7 13
1967-08-21 @ Skeid L 1-433.8 1261 1323 16.17% 20.52% 63.30%-1.09 -7.7 12
1967-09-07 Lyn Oslo W 4-247.2 1254 1377 42.17% 21.19% 36.64%-0.19 +9.8 14
1967-09-07 @ Valerenga L 2-447.2 1377 1254 36.64% 21.19% 42.17%+0.19 -9.8 17
1967-09-10 Skeid L 0-145.8 1276 1331 51.07% 21.16% 27.77%+0.27 -8.8 13
1967-09-10 @ Frigg Oslo W 1-045.8 1331 1276 27.77% 21.16% 51.07%-0.27 +8.8 15
1967-09-10 IF Odd W 3-030.2 1238 1234 57.73% 20.94% 21.33%+0.68 +11.7 13
1967-09-10 @ Sarpsborg L 0-330.2 1234 1238 21.33% 20.94% 57.73%-0.68 -11.7 11
1967-09-10 Rosenborg D 1-154.8 1258 1361 44.88% 21.21% 33.92%-0.06 -0.4 12
1967-09-10 @ Steinkjer D 1-154.8 1361 1258 33.92% 21.21% 44.88%+0.06 +0.4 21
1967-09-10 Fredrikstad L 2-354.6 1268 1340 48.98% 21.19% 29.82%+0.16 -7.6 10
1967-09-10 @ Stromsgodset W 3-254.6 1340 1268 29.82% 21.19% 48.98%-0.16 +7.6 14
1967-09-17 Valerenga L 2-359.2 1347 1263 65.14% 20.32% 14.54%+1.24 -10.0 14
1967-09-17 @ Fredrikstad W 3-259.2 1263 1347 14.54% 20.32% 65.14%-1.24 +10.0 16
1967-09-17 Steinkjer D 3-363.5 1267 1258 58.34% 20.90% 20.76%+0.72 -0.9 14
1967-09-17 @ Frigg Oslo D 3-363.5 1258 1267 20.76% 20.90% 58.34%-0.72 +0.9 13
1967-09-17 Sarpsborg D 2-260.1 1362 1249 67.31% 20.03% 12.65%+1.43 -1.7 22
1967-09-17 @ Rosenborg D 2-260.1 1249 1362 12.65% 20.03% 67.31%-1.43 +1.7 14
1967-09-17 IF Odd W 3-135.0 1340 1222 67.69% 19.98% 12.34%+1.47 +4.2 17
1967-09-17 @ Skeid L 1-335.0 1222 1340 12.34% 19.98% 67.69%-1.47 -4.2 11
1967-09-17 Lyn Oslo W 4-139.7 1260 1367 44.41% 21.21% 34.38%-0.08 +14.7 12
1967-09-17 @ Stromsgodset L 1-439.7 1367 1260 34.38% 21.21% 44.41%+0.08 -14.7 17
1967-10-06 Stromsgodset W 2-033.1 1273 1275 57.20% 20.96% 21.84%+0.65 +8.2 18
1967-10-06 @ Valerenga L 0-233.1 1275 1273 21.84% 20.96% 57.20%-0.65 -8.2 12
1967-10-08 Rosenborg W 4-031.3 1352 1360 56.54% 20.99% 22.47%+0.60 +16.0 19
1967-10-08 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-431.3 1360 1352 22.47% 20.99% 56.54%-0.60 -16.0 22
1967-10-08 Frigg Oslo L 0-145.4 1218 1266 51.97% 21.15% 26.88%+0.33 -9.0 11
1967-10-08 @ IF Odd W 1-045.4 1266 1218 26.88% 21.15% 51.97%-0.33 +9.0 16
1967-10-08 Fredrikstad W 2-036.1 1258 1337 48.09% 21.20% 30.70%+0.11 +10.9 15
1967-10-08 @ Steinkjer L 0-236.1 1337 1258 30.70% 21.20% 48.09%-0.11 -10.9 14
1967-10-09 Skeid D 1-154.6 1251 1344 46.25% 21.21% 32.54%+0.01 -0.5 15
1967-10-09 @ Sarpsborg D 1-154.6 1344 1251 32.54% 21.21% 46.25%-0.01 +0.5 18
1967-10-12 Lyn Oslo W 4-244.4 1345 1368 54.79% 21.06% 24.14%+0.49 +6.9 20
1967-10-12 @ Skeid L 2-444.4 1368 1345 24.14% 21.06% 54.79%-0.49 -6.9 19
1967-10-15 IF Odd W 2-138.0 1326 1209 67.67% 19.98% 12.35%+1.47 +2.4 16
1967-10-15 @ Fredrikstad L 1-238.0 1209 1326 12.35% 19.98% 67.67%-1.47 -2.5 11
1967-10-15 Sarpsborg W 2-032.2 1275 1251 59.84% 20.81% 19.35%+0.83 +7.4 18
1967-10-15 @ Frigg Oslo L 0-232.2 1251 1275 19.35% 20.81% 59.84%-0.83 -7.4 15
1967-10-15 Valerenga W 4-028.3 1344 1282 63.34% 20.52% 16.14%+1.09 +11.9 24
1967-10-15 @ Rosenborg L 0-428.3 1282 1344 16.14% 20.52% 63.34%-1.09 -11.9 18
1967-10-15 Steinkjer W 4-242.2 1267 1269 57.07% 20.97% 21.96%+0.64 +6.4 14
1967-10-15 @ Stromsgodset L 2-442.2 1269 1267 21.96% 20.97% 57.07%-0.64 -6.4 15
1967-10-22 Fredrikstad W 3-246.1 1361 1329 60.61% 20.75% 18.64%+0.88 +3.4 21
1967-10-22 @ Lyn Oslo L 2-346.1 1329 1361 18.64% 20.75% 60.61%-0.88 -3.4 16
1967-10-22 Rosenborg D 1-154.5 1207 1356 38.49% 21.13% 40.38%-0.37 +0.1 12
1967-10-22 @ IF Odd D 1-154.5 1356 1207 40.38% 21.13% 38.49%+0.37 -0.1 25
1967-10-22 Stromsgodset D 0-050.4 1243 1273 54.08% 21.09% 24.83%+0.45 -1.3 16
1967-10-22 @ Sarpsborg D 0-050.4 1273 1243 24.83% 21.09% 54.08%-0.45 +1.3 15
1967-10-22 Skeid L 0-437.7 1263 1351 46.84% 21.21% 31.95%+0.04 -29.2 15
1967-10-22 @ Steinkjer W 4-037.7 1351 1263 31.95% 21.21% 46.84%-0.04 +29.2 22
1967-10-22 Frigg Oslo L 1-251.5 1270 1282 55.99% 21.02% 22.99%+0.57 -9.0 18
1967-10-22 @ Valerenga W 2-151.5 1282 1270 22.99% 21.02% 55.99%-0.57 +9.0 20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1967-08-06 11.44% IF Odd 1221 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1354 1
2 1967-08-21 14.47% Frigg Oslo 1265 2 @ Fredrikstad 1350 1
3 1967-09-17 14.54% Valerenga 1263 3 @ Fredrikstad 1347 2
4 1967-06-04 15.72% Steinkjer 1268 1 @ Fredrikstad 1336 0
5 1967-05-07 16.44% Sarpsborg 1267 2 @ Fredrikstad 1325 0
6 1967-05-22 16.98% Valerenga 1297 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1348 1
7 1967-05-15 18.80% IF Odd 1246 2 @ Steinkjer 1277 1
8 1967-05-07 21.63% Rosenborg 1302 5 @ Skeid 1303 2
9 1967-08-06 22.03% Steinkjer 1282 2 @ Valerenga 1278 0
10 1967-06-12 22.22% Frigg Oslo 1285 2 @ Sarpsborg 1279 1
11 1967-05-28 22.87% Fredrikstad 1318 2 @ Valerenga 1307 0
12 1967-10-22 22.99% Frigg Oslo 1282 2 @ Valerenga 1270 1
13 1967-05-21 24.41% Sarpsborg 1282 1 @ IF Odd 1256 0
14 1967-05-15 24.88% Rosenborg 1320 1 @ Stromsgodset 1290 0
15 1967-07-31 26.12% Valerenga 1270 3 @ IF Odd 1229 2
16 1967-10-08 26.88% Frigg Oslo 1266 1 @ IF Odd 1218 0
17 1967-07-31 27.68% Lyn Oslo 1339 3 @ Frigg Oslo 1285 1
18 1967-09-10 27.77% Skeid 1331 1 @ Frigg Oslo 1276 0
19 1967-08-20 27.82% Lyn Oslo 1345 8 @ Steinkjer 1289 2
20 1967-08-07 29.15% Fredrikstad 1332 3 @ Sarpsborg 1265 0
21 1967-09-10 29.82% Fredrikstad 1340 3 @ Stromsgodset 1268 2
22 1967-06-11 29.91% Fredrikstad 1325 1 @ IF Odd 1253 0
23 1967-05-06 31.02% Lyn Oslo 1334 2 @ IF Odd 1253 0
24 1967-10-22 31.95% Skeid 1351 4 @ Steinkjer 1263 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1967-08-20 31.50 Lyn Oslo 8 1345 27.82% @ Steinkjer 2 1289 51.02% 21.17%
2 1967-10-22 29.20 Skeid 4 1351 31.95% @ Steinkjer 0 1263 46.84% 21.21%
3 1967-08-07 23.54 Fredrikstad 3 1332 29.15% @ Sarpsborg 0 1265 49.66% 21.19%
4 1967-05-07 20.30 Sarpsborg 2 1267 16.44% @ Fredrikstad 0 1325 63.01% 20.55%
5 1967-05-07 19.66 Rosenborg 5 1302 21.63% @ Skeid 2 1303 57.41% 20.95%
6 1967-08-06 18.41 Steinkjer 2 1282 22.03% @ Valerenga 0 1278 57.00% 20.97%
7 1967-05-28 18.13 Fredrikstad 2 1318 22.87% @ Valerenga 0 1307 56.11% 21.01%
8 1967-06-04 16.74 @ Skeid 4 1276 55.20% Sarpsborg 0 1296 23.75% 21.05%
9 1967-06-22 16.00 @ Skeid 4 1292 56.48% Frigg Oslo 0 1301 22.53% 21.00%
10 1967-10-08 15.96 @ Lyn Oslo 4 1352 56.54% Rosenborg 0 1360 22.47% 20.99%
11 1967-05-06 15.66 Lyn Oslo 2 1334 31.02% @ IF Odd 0 1253 47.77% 21.20%
12 1967-06-18 15.26 @ Rosenborg 6 1336 65.78% IF Odd 0 1244 13.98% 20.24%
13 1967-09-17 14.66 @ Stromsgodset 4 1260 44.41% Lyn Oslo 1 1367 34.38% 21.21%
14 1967-07-31 14.42 Lyn Oslo 3 1339 27.68% @ Frigg Oslo 1 1285 51.15% 21.16%
15 1967-05-20 14.04 @ Fredrikstad 4 1304 59.80% Stromsgodset 0 1280 19.39% 20.81%
16 1967-08-02 13.38 @ Skeid 4 1308 60.90% Stromsgodset 0 1273 18.36% 20.73%
17 1967-10-15 11.91 @ Rosenborg 4 1344 63.34% Valerenga 0 1282 16.14% 20.52%
18 1967-09-10 11.68 @ Sarpsborg 3 1238 57.73% IF Odd 0 1234 21.33% 20.94%
19 1967-08-06 11.07 IF Odd 2 1221 11.44% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1354 68.76% 19.80%
20 1967-06-04 11.03 @ Stromsgodset 4 1263 54.61% Valerenga 1 1288 24.31% 21.07%
21 1967-04-30 11.01 @ Valerenga 3 1282 59.21% IF Odd 0 1264 19.94% 20.85%
22 1967-10-08 10.93 @ Steinkjer 2 1258 48.09% Fredrikstad 0 1337 30.70% 21.20%
23 1967-06-04 10.90 Steinkjer 1 1268 15.72% @ Fredrikstad 0 1336 63.81% 20.47%
24 1967-08-16 10.86 @ IF Odd 2 1223 48.33% Steinkjer 0 1300 30.47% 21.20%
25 1967-08-21 10.50 Frigg Oslo 2 1265 14.47% @ Fredrikstad 1 1350 65.22% 20.31%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1967-06-11 63.9 @ Valerenga 3 1277 50.69% Rosenborg 3 1336 28.14% 21.17%
2 1967-09-17 63.5 @ Frigg Oslo 3 1267 58.34% Steinkjer 3 1258 20.76% 20.90%
3 1967-07-30 60.5 @ Fredrikstad 2 1333 55.31% Rosenborg 2 1352 23.65% 21.05%
4 1967-09-17 60.1 @ Rosenborg 2 1362 67.31% Sarpsborg 2 1249 12.65% 20.03%
5 1967-08-09 59.8 @ Frigg Oslo 2 1266 46.62% Rosenborg 2 1356 32.17% 21.21%
6 1967-07-30 59.5 @ Steinkjer 2 1283 59.32% Sarpsborg 2 1264 19.83% 20.84%
7 1967-09-17 59.2 Valerenga 3 1263 14.54% @ Fredrikstad 2 1347 65.14% 20.32%
8 1967-06-19 55.4 @ Fredrikstad 1 1334 56.96% Lyn Oslo 1 1338 22.06% 20.97%
9 1967-07-31 55.1 Valerenga 3 1270 26.12% @ IF Odd 2 1229 52.75% 21.13%
10 1967-08-06 55.1 IF Odd 2 1221 11.44% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1354 68.76% 19.80%
11 1967-09-10 54.8 @ Steinkjer 1 1258 44.88% Rosenborg 1 1361 33.92% 21.21%
12 1967-09-10 54.6 Fredrikstad 3 1340 29.82% @ Stromsgodset 2 1268 48.98% 21.19%
13 1967-10-09 54.6 @ Sarpsborg 1 1251 46.25% Skeid 1 1344 32.54% 21.21%
14 1967-05-07 54.5 @ Steinkjer 1 1276 55.49% Valerenga 1 1293 23.48% 21.04%
15 1967-06-04 54.5 @ Frigg Oslo 1 1287 60.90% IF Odd 1 1251 18.37% 20.73%
16 1967-10-22 54.5 @ IF Odd 1 1207 38.49% Rosenborg 1 1356 40.38% 21.13%
17 1967-08-21 54.4 Frigg Oslo 2 1265 14.47% @ Fredrikstad 1 1350 65.22% 20.31%
18 1967-08-10 54.2 @ Sarpsborg 1 1242 55.36% Valerenga 1 1260 23.60% 21.04%
19 1967-05-22 53.9 Valerenga 2 1297 16.98% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1348 62.42% 20.61%
20 1967-05-15 52.6 IF Odd 2 1246 18.80% @ Steinkjer 1 1277 60.43% 20.77%
21 1967-06-12 51.8 Frigg Oslo 2 1285 22.22% @ Sarpsborg 1 1279 56.80% 20.98%
22 1967-10-22 51.5 Frigg Oslo 2 1282 22.99% @ Valerenga 1 1270 55.99% 21.02%
23 1967-05-11 51.3 @ Lyn Oslo 0 1350 64.46% Steinkjer 0 1274 15.14% 20.40%
24 1967-05-16 51.1 @ Sarpsborg 0 1283 49.87% Lyn Oslo 0 1348 28.94% 21.18%
25 1967-05-10 51.0 @ Rosenborg 0 1322 61.02% Frigg Oslo 0 1285 18.25% 20.72%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1967-06-18 28.3 @ Rosenborg 6 1336 65.78% IF Odd 0 1244 13.98% 20.24%
2 1967-10-15 28.3 @ Rosenborg 4 1344 63.34% Valerenga 0 1282 16.14% 20.52%
3 1967-08-02 28.7 @ Skeid 4 1308 60.90% Stromsgodset 0 1273 18.36% 20.73%
4 1967-05-20 29.1 @ Fredrikstad 4 1304 59.80% Stromsgodset 0 1280 19.39% 20.81%
5 1967-04-30 30.0 @ Valerenga 3 1282 59.21% IF Odd 0 1264 19.94% 20.85%
6 1967-06-22 30.1 @ Skeid 4 1292 56.48% Frigg Oslo 0 1301 22.53% 21.00%
7 1967-09-10 30.2 @ Sarpsborg 3 1238 57.73% IF Odd 0 1234 21.33% 20.94%
8 1967-06-04 30.4 @ Skeid 4 1276 55.20% Sarpsborg 0 1296 23.75% 21.05%
9 1967-10-08 31.3 @ Lyn Oslo 4 1352 56.54% Rosenborg 0 1360 22.47% 20.99%
10 1967-10-15 32.2 @ Frigg Oslo 2 1275 59.84% Sarpsborg 0 1251 19.35% 20.81%
11 1967-06-11 32.9 @ Steinkjer 2 1279 57.88% Stromsgodset 0 1274 21.19% 20.93%
12 1967-10-06 33.1 @ Valerenga 2 1273 57.20% Stromsgodset 0 1275 21.84% 20.96%
13 1967-08-21 33.8 @ Skeid 4 1323 63.30% Valerenga 1 1261 16.17% 20.52%
14 1967-08-09 34.2 @ Stromsgodset 4 1264 60.57% IF Odd 1 1232 18.68% 20.76%
15 1967-06-04 34.4 @ Rosenborg 2 1327 55.84% Lyn Oslo 0 1341 23.14% 21.02%
16 1967-09-17 35.0 @ Skeid 3 1340 67.69% IF Odd 1 1222 12.34% 19.98%
17 1967-04-27 35.6 @ Lyn Oslo 1 1331 61.96% Frigg Oslo 0 1284 17.40% 20.65%
18 1967-08-16 35.7 @ IF Odd 2 1223 48.33% Steinkjer 0 1300 30.47% 21.20%
19 1967-10-08 36.1 @ Steinkjer 2 1258 48.09% Fredrikstad 0 1337 30.70% 21.20%
20 1967-06-04 36.2 @ Stromsgodset 4 1263 54.61% Valerenga 1 1288 24.31% 21.07%
21 1967-08-20 36.3 @ Rosenborg 3 1356 65.10% Stromsgodset 1 1273 14.57% 20.33%
22 1967-05-10 36.5 @ Valerenga 1 1294 58.12% Sarpsborg 0 1287 20.97% 20.91%
23 1967-06-18 36.7 @ Skeid 1 1288 57.42% Steinkjer 0 1287 21.63% 20.95%
24 1967-08-06 36.8 @ Stromsgodset 1 1259 56.21% Frigg Oslo 0 1270 22.78% 21.01%
25 1967-04-30 37.1 @ Sarpsborg 1 1262 55.39% Steinkjer 0 1280 23.57% 21.04%