1968 First Division Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Lyn Oslo

28 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Lyn Oslo

5.74 points above expected

28 points · 22.26 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valerenga

6.18 points below expected

10 points · 16.18 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Lyn Oslo	18	14	0	4	28	57	33	+24	22.3	+5.74
2	Rosenborg	18	11	2	5	24	53	29	+24	22.4	+1.63
3	Viking	18	9	3	6	21	34	32	+2	16.3	+4.72
4	Stromsgodset	18	9	1	8	19	48	27	+21	19.1	-0.10
5	Brann	18	8	3	7	19	31	32	-1	14.7	+4.27
6	Skeid	18	9	1	8	19	22	33	-11	18.5	+0.47
7	Sarpsborg	18	5	5	8	15	14	25	-11	15.6	-0.61
8	Fredrikstad	18	6	2	10	14	28	34	-6	18.6	-4.58
9	Frigg Oslo	18	3	5	10	11	15	37	-22	16.4	-5.36
10	Valerenga	18	3	4	11	10	18	38	-20	16.2	-6.18

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Stromsgodset	1411	19	19.10	-0.10	54.0%	6	13	17	19	22	25	32
Rosenborg	1397	24	22.37	+1.63	71.6%	8	16	20	22	25	28	34
Lyn Oslo	1392	28	22.26	+5.74	96.0%	6	16	20	22	25	28	35
Viking	1294	21	16.28	+4.72	91.6%	4	10	14	16	19	22	29
Fredrikstad	1274	14	18.58	-4.58	13.9%	5	12	16	19	21	25	34
Brann	1270	19	14.73	+4.27	89.9%	0	9	12	15	17	21	28
Skeid	1259	19	18.53	+0.47	60.2%	3	12	16	19	21	25	31
Sarpsborg	1236	15	15.61	-0.61	49.1%	2	10	13	16	18	22	30
Valerenga	1188	10	16.18	-6.18	6.2%	4	10	14	16	19	22	29
Frigg Oslo	1164	11	16.36	-5.36	9.5%	4	10	14	16	19	23	30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRA	FRE	FO	LO	ROS	SAR	SKE	STR	VAL	VIK
Brann	—	1-0-1 2.48	1-1-0 2.59	1-0-1 1.54	0-0-2 2.05	2-0-0 2.52	1-0-1 2.08	1-0-1 2.16	1-1-0 2.55	0-1-1 2.47
Fredrikstad	1-0-1 3.14	—	1-1-0 3.19	0-0-2 2.10	0-0-2 2.38	1-0-1 3.21	1-0-1 2.67	0-0-2 2.80	1-1-0 3.27	1-0-1 3.41
Frigg Oslo	0-1-1 3.03	0-1-1 2.43	—	0-0-2 2.32	1-1-0 1.99	1-1-0 2.77	0-0-2 2.50	1-0-1 2.01	0-0-2 2.86	0-1-1 2.93
Lyn Oslo	1-0-1 4.10	2-0-0 3.52	2-0-0 3.30	—	2-0-0 2.73	2-0-0 3.89	2-0-0 3.17	0-0-2 3.44	2-0-0 3.97	1-0-1 3.56
Rosenborg	2-0-0 3.57	2-0-0 3.24	0-1-1 3.64	0-0-2 2.89	—	1-1-0 3.73	2-0-0 3.46	1-0-1 3.52	2-0-0 3.88	1-0-1 3.92
Sarpsborg	0-0-2 3.10	1-0-1 2.41	0-1-1 2.85	0-0-2 1.74	0-1-1 1.90	—	0-1-1 2.43	2-0-0 2.31	1-1-0 2.54	1-1-0 2.56
Skeid	1-0-1 3.54	1-0-1 2.96	2-0-0 3.12	0-0-2 2.45	0-0-2 2.16	1-1-0 3.19	—	1-0-1 2.82	2-0-0 3.01	1-0-1 2.80
Stromsgodset	1-0-1 3.46	2-0-0 2.82	1-0-1 3.62	2-0-0 2.18	1-0-1 2.11	0-0-2 3.32	1-0-1 2.80	—	1-1-0 3.08	0-0-2 3.56
Valerenga	0-1-1 3.07	0-1-1 2.35	2-0-0 2.76	0-0-2 1.66	0-0-2 1.76	0-1-1 3.08	0-0-2 2.61	0-1-1 2.54	—	1-0-1 2.65
Viking	1-1-0 3.16	1-0-1 2.22	1-1-0 2.69	1-0-1 2.06	1-0-1 1.72	0-1-1 3.06	1-0-1 2.82	2-0-0 2.06	1-0-1 2.97	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	4.44%	7.78%	3.33%	1.67%	2.22%	25.00%
1	4.44%	5.56%	8.33%	3.33%	2.22%	2.22%	26.11%
2	7.78%	8.33%	3.33%	2.78%	1.11%	2.78%	26.11%
3	3.33%	3.33%	2.78%	—	0.56%	—	10.00%
4	1.67%	2.22%	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	2.22%	2.22%	2.78%	—	—	—	7.22%
Total	25.00%	26.11%	26.11%	10.00%	5.56%	7.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.78
Mean allowed	1.78
StdDev scored	1.81
StdDev allowed	1.81
Mean total goals/game	3.56
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.173
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
2	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	50.00%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	38.89%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Brann — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	1.78
StdDev scored	1.23
StdDev allowed	1.70
Mean total goals/game	3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.482
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	27.78%	11.11%	—	100%

Fredrikstad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.56
Mean allowed	1.89
StdDev scored	1.58
StdDev allowed	1.32
Mean total goals/game	3.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.250
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	11.11%	50.00%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Frigg Oslo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.83
Mean allowed	2.06
StdDev scored	1.10
StdDev allowed	1.86
Mean total goals/game	2.89
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.082
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
2	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	33.33%	27.78%	22.22%	—	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Lyn Oslo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.17
Mean allowed	1.83
StdDev scored	2.36
StdDev allowed	2.57
Mean total goals/game	5.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.267
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	27.78%	11.11%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Rosenborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.94
Mean allowed	1.61
StdDev scored	2.31
StdDev allowed	1.24
Mean total goals/game	4.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.090
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	22.22%	22.22%	—	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Sarpsborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.78
Mean allowed	1.39
StdDev scored	0.88
StdDev allowed	1.58
Mean total goals/game	2.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.193
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	33.33%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	22.22%	—	—	5.56%	—	44.44%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Skeid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.22
Mean allowed	1.83
StdDev scored	1.00
StdDev allowed	1.92
Mean total goals/game	3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.652
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Stromsgodset — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.67
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	2.52
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.298
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	22.22%	—	11.11%	100%

Valerenga — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.00
Mean allowed	2.11
StdDev scored	0.84
StdDev allowed	1.91
Mean total goals/game	3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.147
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	38.89%
3	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	27.78%	—	—	11.11%	100%

Viking — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.89
Mean allowed	1.78
StdDev scored	1.49
StdDev allowed	2.60
Mean total goals/game	3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.052
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Lyn Oslo	28	22.3	+5.74
2	Viking	21	16.3	+4.72
3	Brann	19	14.7	+4.27
4	Rosenborg	24	22.4	+1.63
5	Skeid	19	18.5	+0.47

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valerenga	10	16.2	-6.18
2	Frigg Oslo	11	16.4	-5.36
3	Fredrikstad	14	18.6	-4.58
4	Sarpsborg	15	15.6	-0.61
5	Stromsgodset	19	19.1	-0.10

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lyn Oslo	8	Jul 28 – Oct 13	1 in 209
2	Skeid	6	Jun 4 – Aug 13	1 in 203
3	Viking	5	Aug 11 – Oct 6	1 in 176
4	Stromsgodset	5	Sep 8 – Oct 20	1 in 86
5	Rosenborg	7	May 23 – Aug 7	1 in 82

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Stromsgodset	4	Jul 28 – Aug 25	1 in 145
2	Valerenga	6	Aug 8 – Oct 8	1 in 135
3	Lyn Oslo	2	Jun 11 – Jun 16	1 in 21
4	Skeid	3	Sep 23 – Oct 13	1 in 15
5	Frigg Oslo	3	Apr 25 – May 13	1 in 14

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Viking	6	Aug 11 – Oct 13	1 in 32
2	Skeid	6	Jun 4 – Aug 13	1 in 20
3	Lyn Oslo	8	Jul 28 – Oct 13	1 in 17
4	Rosenborg	8	May 20 – Aug 7	1 in 14
5	Frigg Oslo	5	May 20 – Jun 12	1 in 13

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valerenga	8	Aug 8 – Oct 20	1 in 27
2	Sarpsborg	7	May 23 – Aug 7	1 in 24
3	Stromsgodset	4	May 11 – May 26	1 in 12
4	Frigg Oslo	5	Apr 25 – May 23	1 in 12
5	Skeid	4	May 13 – May 26	1 in 8

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Lyn Oslo	34.02%	23.69%	14.28%	10.24%	6.96%	4.51%	3.00%	1.80%	1.08%	0.42%
Rosenborg	34.92%	23.70%	14.84%	9.42%	6.72%	4.43%	3.02%	1.46%	1.04%	0.45%
Viking	2.28%	4.91%	7.01%	9.53%	10.93%	12.41%	13.53%	13.54%	13.70%	12.16%
Stromsgodset	9.68%	13.52%	16.05%	14.44%	12.55%	10.47%	8.31%	7.23%	4.75%	3.00%
Brann	0.93%	2.32%	3.88%	6.24%	7.96%	9.97%	12.17%	15.07%	18.76%	22.70%
Skeid	6.12%	10.29%	12.88%	13.12%	13.27%	11.48%	10.96%	9.39%	7.41%	5.08%
Sarpsborg	1.27%	3.11%	5.57%	7.70%	9.05%	10.98%	12.71%	14.11%	16.37%	19.13%
Fredrikstad	6.78%	10.72%	12.97%	13.43%	13.25%	12.03%	10.36%	8.41%	6.90%	5.15%
Frigg Oslo	1.87%	4.30%	6.45%	8.10%	9.46%	12.18%	13.17%	14.46%	14.47%	15.54%
Valerenga	2.13%	3.44%	6.07%	7.78%	9.85%	11.54%	12.77%	14.53%	15.52%	16.37%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Rosenborg	98.5%	1.5%
Lyn Oslo	98.5%	1.5%
Stromsgodset	92.2%	7.8%
Fredrikstad	87.9%	12.0%
Skeid	87.5%	12.5%
Viking	74.1%	25.9%
Frigg Oslo	70.0%	30.0%
Valerenga	68.1%	31.9%
Sarpsborg	64.5%	35.5%
Brann	58.5%	41.5%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1968-04-25	Valerenga	L 1-2	1297	1281	46.8%	19.0%	34.3%	-8.6	0
1968-04-25	@ Frigg Oslo	W 2-1	1281	1297	34.3%	19.0%	46.8%	+8.6	3
1968-04-28	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1216	1273	36.6%	19.0%	44.4%	+16.4	3
1968-04-28	@ Brann	L 0-2	1273	1216	44.4%	19.0%	36.6%	-16.4	0
1968-04-28	Rosenborg	L 0-1	1313	1325	43.0%	19.0%	38.0%	-8.5	0
1968-04-28	@ Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1325	1313	38.0%	19.0%	43.0%	+8.5	3
1968-04-28	Stromsgodset	L 2-4	1340	1288	51.5%	18.9%	29.7%	-14.4	0
1968-04-28	@ Skeid	W 4-2	1288	1340	29.7%	18.9%	51.5%	+14.4	3
1968-04-28	Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	1225	1328	30.6%	18.8%	50.6%	+9.2	3
1968-04-28	@ Viking	L 1-2	1328	1225	50.6%	18.8%	30.6%	-9.2	0
1968-05-02	Skeid	L 1-2	1289	1325	39.5%	19.0%	41.5%	-7.4	3
1968-05-02	@ Valerenga	W 2-1	1325	1289	41.5%	19.0%	39.5%	+7.4	3
1968-05-05	Viking	L 1-2	1333	1234	57.1%	18.6%	24.2%	-10.2	3
1968-05-05	@ Rosenborg	W 2-1	1234	1333	24.2%	18.6%	57.1%	+10.3	6
1968-05-05	Brann	W 2-0	1303	1232	53.8%	18.8%	27.4%	+10.9	6
1968-05-05	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-2	1232	1303	27.4%	18.8%	53.8%	-10.9	3
1968-05-06	Frigg Oslo	W 5-0	1318	1288	48.7%	18.9%	32.4%	+29.5	3
1968-05-06	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-5	1288	1318	32.4%	18.9%	48.7%	-29.5	0
1968-05-06	Fredrikstad	W 3-2	1256	1305	37.7%	19.0%	43.3%	+7.6	3
1968-05-06	@ Sarpsborg	L 2-3	1305	1256	43.3%	19.0%	37.7%	-7.6	0
1968-05-11	Valerenga	D 0-0	1264	1282	42.0%	19.0%	39.0%	-0.1	4
1968-05-11	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1282	1264	39.0%	19.0%	42.0%	+0.1	4
1968-05-11	Stromsgodset	W 2-1	1245	1314	34.9%	18.9%	46.2%	+8.5	9
1968-05-11	@ Viking	L 1-2	1314	1245	46.2%	18.9%	34.9%	-8.5	6
1968-05-12	Rosenborg	W 3-1	1348	1323	48.0%	18.9%	33.0%	+11.1	6
1968-05-12	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	1323	1348	33.0%	18.9%	48.0%	-11.1	3
1968-05-13	Skeid	W 2-0	1221	1333	29.5%	18.8%	51.8%	+18.7	6
1968-05-13	@ Brann	L 0-2	1333	1221	51.8%	18.8%	29.5%	-18.7	3
1968-05-13	Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1259	1297	39.2%	19.0%	41.9%	-7.8	0
1968-05-13	@ Frigg Oslo	W 1-0	1297	1259	41.9%	19.0%	39.2%	+7.8	3
1968-05-19	Viking	W 2-1	1305	1253	51.5%	18.9%	29.6%	+5.8	6
1968-05-19	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1253	1305	29.6%	18.9%	51.5%	-5.8	9
1968-05-19	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1305	1264	50.2%	18.9%	30.9%	-9.7	6
1968-05-19	@ Stromsgodset	W 1-0	1264	1305	30.9%	18.9%	50.2%	+9.7	7
1968-05-19	Brann	D 2-2	1282	1240	50.3%	18.9%	30.9%	-0.6	5
1968-05-19	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	1240	1282	30.9%	18.9%	50.3%	+0.6	7
1968-05-20	Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	1312	1251	52.6%	18.8%	28.5%	-1.2	4
1968-05-20	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	1251	1312	28.5%	18.8%	52.6%	+1.2	1
1968-05-20	Lyn Oslo	L 0-3	1314	1359	38.3%	19.0%	42.8%	-21.0	3
1968-05-20	@ Skeid	W 3-0	1359	1314	42.8%	19.0%	38.3%	+21.0	9
1968-05-23	Rosenborg	L 0-4	1241	1311	34.8%	18.9%	46.3%	-25.4	7
1968-05-23	@ Brann	W 4-0	1311	1241	46.3%	18.9%	34.8%	+25.4	7
1968-05-23	Viking	D 0-0	1252	1247	45.3%	19.0%	35.7%	-0.5	2
1968-05-23	@ Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	1247	1252	35.7%	19.0%	45.3%	+0.4	10
1968-05-23	Skeid	D 1-1	1273	1293	41.8%	19.0%	39.2%	-0.1	8
1968-05-23	@ Sarpsborg	D 1-1	1293	1273	39.2%	19.0%	41.8%	+0.1	4
1968-05-23	Valerenga	D 1-1	1295	1282	46.5%	19.0%	34.5%	-0.5	7
1968-05-23	@ Stromsgodset	D 1-1	1282	1295	34.5%	19.0%	46.5%	+0.5	6
1968-05-24	Fredrikstad	W 3-1	1380	1311	53.7%	18.8%	27.6%	+9.5	12
1968-05-24	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	1311	1380	27.6%	18.8%	53.7%	-9.5	6
1968-05-26	Stromsgodset	W 4-1	1252	1295	38.5%	19.0%	42.6%	+19.4	5
1968-05-26	@ Frigg Oslo	L 1-4	1295	1252	42.6%	19.0%	38.5%	-19.3	7
1968-05-26	Skeid	W 6-0	1336	1293	50.3%	18.9%	30.8%	+33.6	10
1968-05-26	@ Rosenborg	L 0-6	1293	1336	30.8%	18.9%	50.3%	-33.6	4
1968-05-27	Valerenga	W 1-0	1301	1282	47.2%	18.9%	33.8%	+6.9	9
1968-05-27	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1282	1301	33.8%	18.9%	47.2%	-6.9	6
1968-05-27	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1390	1273	59.1%	18.5%	22.4%	+9.2	15
1968-05-27	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1273	1390	22.4%	18.5%	59.1%	-9.2	8
1968-05-27	Brann	W 2-1	1248	1215	49.0%	18.9%	32.1%	+6.3	13
1968-05-27	@ Viking	L 1-2	1215	1248	32.1%	18.9%	49.0%	-6.3	7
1968-06-03	Rosenborg	L 2-5	1264	1370	30.2%	18.8%	51.0%	-12.6	8
1968-06-03	@ Sarpsborg	W 5-2	1370	1264	51.0%	18.8%	30.2%	+12.6	13
1968-06-03	Fredrikstad	W 2-1	1276	1308	40.0%	19.0%	41.0%	+7.7	10
1968-06-03	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-2	1308	1276	41.0%	19.0%	40.0%	-7.7	9
1968-06-04	Frigg Oslo	D 2-2	1209	1271	35.9%	18.9%	45.2%	+0.3	8
1968-06-04	@ Brann	D 2-2	1271	1209	45.2%	18.9%	35.9%	-0.3	6
1968-06-04	Viking	W 2-1	1260	1254	45.4%	19.0%	35.6%	+6.8	7
1968-06-04	@ Skeid	L 1-2	1254	1260	35.6%	19.0%	45.4%	-6.8	13
1968-06-05	Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	1275	1399	28.0%	18.7%	53.3%	-9.6	6
1968-06-05	@ Valerenga	W 3-1	1399	1275	53.3%	18.7%	28.0%	+9.6	18
1968-06-11	Brann	L 1-4	1408	1209	67.0%	17.7%	15.3%	-29.3	18
1968-06-11	@ Lyn Oslo	W 4-1	1209	1408	15.3%	17.7%	67.0%	+29.3	11
1968-06-12	Skeid	L 0-2	1301	1267	49.2%	18.9%	31.9%	-17.9	9
1968-06-12	@ Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1267	1301	31.9%	18.9%	49.2%	+17.9	10
1968-06-12	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	1271	1251	47.2%	18.9%	33.8%	+6.9	9
1968-06-12	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	1251	1271	33.8%	18.9%	47.2%	-6.9	8
1968-06-12	Stromsgodset	W 3-2	1382	1283	57.2%	18.6%	24.2%	+4.7	16
1968-06-12	@ Rosenborg	L 2-3	1283	1382	24.2%	18.6%	57.2%	-4.7	10
1968-06-12	Valerenga	L 0-2	1247	1265	42.0%	19.0%	39.0%	-15.6	13
1968-06-12	@ Viking	W 2-0	1265	1247	39.0%	19.0%	42.0%	+15.6	9
1968-06-16	Fredrikstad	L 2-3	1239	1283	38.4%	19.0%	42.7%	-6.9	11
1968-06-16	@ Brann	W 3-2	1283	1239	42.7%	19.0%	38.4%	+6.9	12
1968-06-16	Viking	D 0-0	1244	1231	46.4%	19.0%	34.6%	-0.6	9
1968-06-16	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1231	1244	34.6%	19.0%	46.4%	+0.6	14
1968-06-16	Frigg Oslo	W 2-1	1284	1278	45.6%	19.0%	35.5%	+6.8	13
1968-06-16	@ Skeid	L 1-2	1278	1284	35.5%	19.0%	45.6%	-6.8	9
1968-06-16	Lyn Oslo	W 10-1	1279	1379	30.8%	18.8%	50.3%	+61.2	13
1968-06-16	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-10	1379	1279	50.3%	18.8%	30.8%	-61.2	18
1968-06-17	Rosenborg	L 2-3	1281	1387	30.2%	18.8%	51.0%	-5.6	9
1968-06-17	@ Valerenga	W 3-2	1387	1281	51.0%	18.8%	30.2%	+5.6	19
1968-07-28	Viking	W 11-2	1318	1232	55.7%	18.7%	25.7%	+28.2	21
1968-07-28	@ Lyn Oslo	L 2-11	1232	1318	25.7%	18.7%	55.7%	-28.2	14
1968-07-28	Fredrikstad	W 4-3	1392	1290	57.6%	18.6%	23.8%	+4.5	22
1968-07-28	@ Rosenborg	L 3-4	1290	1392	23.8%	18.6%	57.6%	-4.5	12
1968-07-28	Brann	L 1-2	1244	1232	46.3%	19.0%	34.8%	-8.5	9
1968-07-28	@ Sarpsborg	W 2-1	1232	1244	34.8%	19.0%	46.3%	+8.5	14
1968-07-28	Skeid	L 1-2	1340	1291	51.1%	18.9%	30.0%	-9.2	13
1968-07-28	@ Stromsgodset	W 2-1	1291	1340	30.0%	18.9%	51.1%	+9.2	16
1968-07-30	Frigg Oslo	W 2-0	1275	1271	45.2%	19.0%	35.8%	+13.7	12
1968-07-30	@ Valerenga	L 0-2	1271	1275	35.8%	19.0%	45.2%	-13.7	9
1968-08-07	Stromsgodset	W 2-1	1240	1331	32.1%	18.9%	49.0%	+8.9	17
1968-08-07	@ Brann	L 1-2	1331	1240	49.0%	18.9%	32.1%	-8.9	13
1968-08-07	Sarpsborg	W 4-1	1285	1235	51.2%	18.9%	29.9%	+14.5	15
1968-08-07	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-4	1235	1285	29.9%	18.9%	51.2%	-14.5	9
1968-08-07	Lyn Oslo	L 2-5	1257	1346	32.3%	18.9%	48.8%	-13.3	9
1968-08-07	@ Frigg Oslo	W 5-2	1346	1257	48.8%	18.9%	32.3%	+13.3	24
1968-08-07	Rosenborg	L 2-5	1204	1397	20.7%	18.1%	61.2%	-9.0	14
1968-08-07	@ Viking	W 5-2	1397	1204	61.2%	18.1%	20.7%	+9.0	25
1968-08-08	Valerenga	W 3-0	1300	1289	46.2%	19.0%	34.9%	+19.5	19
1968-08-08	@ Skeid	L 0-3	1289	1300	34.9%	19.0%	46.2%	-19.5	12
1968-08-11	Lyn Oslo	L 2-4	1406	1359	50.8%	18.9%	30.3%	-14.3	25
1968-08-11	@ Rosenborg	W 4-2	1359	1406	30.3%	18.9%	50.8%	+14.3	27
1968-08-11	Viking	L 2-3	1322	1195	60.2%	18.4%	21.4%	-10.2	13
1968-08-11	@ Stromsgodset	W 3-2	1195	1322	21.4%	18.4%	60.2%	+10.2	17
1968-08-12	Frigg Oslo	D 1-1	1299	1244	52.0%	18.8%	29.2%	-1.0	16
1968-08-12	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1244	1299	29.2%	18.8%	52.0%	+1.0	10
1968-08-12	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1270	1221	51.1%	18.9%	30.0%	-9.8	12
1968-08-12	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	1221	1270	30.0%	18.9%	51.1%	+9.8	12
1968-08-13	Brann	W 2-0	1320	1249	53.9%	18.8%	27.4%	+10.9	22
1968-08-13	@ Skeid	L 0-2	1249	1320	27.4%	18.8%	53.9%	-10.9	17
1968-08-22	Skeid	W 2-1	1374	1331	50.3%	18.9%	30.8%	+6.1	30
1968-08-22	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	1331	1374	30.8%	18.9%	50.3%	-6.1	22
1968-08-25	Rosenborg	W 2-1	1245	1392	25.4%	18.5%	56.1%	+10.1	13
1968-08-25	@ Frigg Oslo	L 1-2	1392	1245	56.1%	18.5%	25.4%	-10.1	25
1968-08-25	Stromsgodset	W 2-0	1231	1311	33.4%	18.9%	47.7%	+17.4	15
1968-08-25	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-2	1311	1231	47.7%	18.9%	33.4%	-17.4	13
1968-08-25	Fredrikstad	W 3-0	1205	1298	31.7%	18.8%	49.4%	+26.1	20
1968-08-25	@ Viking	L 0-3	1298	1205	49.4%	18.8%	31.7%	-26.1	16
1968-08-26	Valerenga	W 2-0	1238	1260	41.5%	19.0%	39.5%	+14.8	20
1968-08-26	@ Brann	L 0-2	1260	1238	39.5%	19.0%	41.5%	-14.8	12
1968-09-08	Brann	W 7-1	1382	1253	60.4%	18.4%	21.2%	+20.0	28
1968-09-08	@ Rosenborg	L 1-7	1253	1382	21.2%	18.4%	60.4%	-20.0	20
1968-09-08	Stromsgodset	L 1-6	1245	1294	37.7%	19.0%	43.4%	-27.7	12
1968-09-08	@ Valerenga	W 6-1	1294	1245	43.4%	19.0%	37.7%	+27.7	16
1968-09-08	Frigg Oslo	W 6-0	1231	1255	41.3%	19.0%	39.7%	+41.5	23
1968-09-08	@ Viking	L 0-6	1255	1231	39.7%	19.0%	41.3%	-41.5	13
1968-09-09	Lyn Oslo	L 1-4	1272	1380	30.0%	18.8%	51.2%	-14.5	16
1968-09-09	@ Fredrikstad	W 4-1	1380	1272	51.2%	18.8%	30.0%	+14.5	33
1968-09-10	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	1325	1248	54.6%	18.7%	26.7%	+5.7	25
1968-09-10	@ Skeid	L 0-1	1248	1325	26.7%	18.7%	54.6%	-5.7	15
1968-09-22	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1233	1394	23.9%	18.4%	57.7%	-9.7	20
1968-09-22	@ Brann	W 2-0	1394	1233	57.7%	18.4%	23.9%	+9.7	36
1968-09-22	Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	1243	1213	48.6%	18.9%	32.5%	-0.8	16
1968-09-22	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1213	1243	32.5%	18.9%	48.6%	+0.8	14
1968-09-22	Rosenborg	W 3-0	1322	1402	33.5%	18.9%	47.6%	+25.2	19
1968-09-22	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-3	1402	1322	47.6%	18.9%	33.5%	-25.2	28
1968-09-22	Viking	L 1-3	1217	1273	36.8%	19.0%	44.2%	-12.1	12
1968-09-22	@ Valerenga	W 3-1	1273	1217	44.2%	19.0%	36.8%	+12.2	26
1968-09-23	Fredrikstad	L 0-6	1331	1258	54.1%	18.8%	27.2%	-54.1	25
1968-09-23	@ Skeid	W 6-0	1258	1331	27.2%	18.8%	54.1%	+54.1	19
1968-10-06	Stromsgodset	L 0-3	1312	1347	39.7%	19.0%	41.3%	-21.7	19
1968-10-06	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-0	1347	1312	41.3%	19.0%	39.7%	+21.7	22
1968-10-06	Brann	L 0-4	1214	1223	43.3%	19.0%	37.7%	-30.4	14
1968-10-06	@ Frigg Oslo	W 4-0	1223	1214	37.7%	19.0%	43.3%	+30.4	23
1968-10-06	Sarpsborg	D 1-1	1376	1242	61.0%	18.3%	20.7%	-1.8	29
1968-10-06	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	1242	1376	20.7%	18.3%	61.0%	+1.8	17
1968-10-06	Skeid	W 3-0	1285	1276	45.8%	19.0%	35.3%	+19.7	29
1968-10-06	@ Viking	L 0-3	1276	1285	35.3%	19.0%	45.8%	-19.7	25
1968-10-08	Valerenga	W 2-0	1404	1205	67.0%	17.7%	15.3%	+6.5	39
1968-10-08	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1205	1404	15.3%	17.7%	67.0%	-6.4	12
1968-10-13	Viking	D 2-2	1254	1304	37.4%	19.0%	43.6%	+0.2	24
1968-10-13	@ Brann	D 2-2	1304	1254	43.6%	19.0%	37.4%	-0.2	30
1968-10-13	Lyn Oslo	L 0-4	1244	1410	23.3%	18.4%	58.4%	-17.9	17
1968-10-13	@ Sarpsborg	W 4-0	1410	1244	58.4%	18.4%	23.3%	+17.9	42
1968-10-13	Rosenborg	L 0-2	1257	1374	28.7%	18.7%	52.6%	-11.4	25
1968-10-13	@ Skeid	W 2-0	1374	1257	52.6%	18.7%	28.7%	+11.4	32
1968-10-13	Frigg Oslo	W 3-1	1369	1184	65.8%	17.8%	16.4%	+5.9	25
1968-10-13	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-3	1184	1369	16.4%	17.8%	65.8%	-5.9	14
1968-10-15	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1199	1290	31.9%	18.9%	49.2%	+0.7	13
1968-10-15	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	1290	1199	49.2%	18.9%	31.9%	-0.7	20
1968-10-20	Brann	L 1-3	1290	1254	49.4%	18.9%	31.7%	-15.6	20
1968-10-20	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-1	1254	1290	31.7%	18.9%	49.4%	+15.6	27
1968-10-20	Skeid	L 0-2	1178	1245	35.1%	18.9%	46.0%	-13.5	14
1968-10-20	@ Frigg Oslo	W 2-0	1245	1178	46.0%	18.9%	35.1%	+13.5	28
1968-10-20	Stromsgodset	L 1-6	1428	1375	51.7%	18.8%	29.4%	-36.2	42
1968-10-20	@ Lyn Oslo	W 6-1	1375	1428	29.4%	18.8%	51.7%	+36.2	28
1968-10-20	Valerenga	W 7-2	1386	1199	66.0%	17.8%	16.2%	+11.0	35
1968-10-20	@ Rosenborg	L 2-7	1199	1386	16.2%	17.8%	66.0%	-11.0	13
1968-10-20	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1304	1226	54.8%	18.7%	26.5%	-10.5	30
1968-10-20	@ Viking	W 1-0	1226	1304	26.5%	18.7%	54.8%	+10.5	20

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1968-06-11	15.31%	Brann	1209	4	@ Lyn Oslo	1408	1
2	1968-08-11	21.40%	Viking	1195	3	@ Stromsgodset	1322	2
3	1968-05-05	24.25%	Viking	1234	2	@ Rosenborg	1333	1
4	1968-08-25	25.38%	@ Frigg Oslo	1245	2	Rosenborg	1392	1
5	1968-10-20	26.48%	Sarpsborg	1226	1	@ Viking	1304	0
6	1968-09-23	27.17%	Fredrikstad	1258	6	@ Skeid	1331	0
7	1968-10-20	29.42%	Stromsgodset	1375	6	@ Lyn Oslo	1428	1
8	1968-05-13	29.47%	@ Brann	1221	2	Skeid	1333	0
9	1968-04-28	29.66%	Stromsgodset	1288	4	@ Skeid	1340	2
10	1968-08-12	30.03%	Sarpsborg	1221	1	@ Valerenga	1270	0
11	1968-07-28	30.04%	Skeid	1291	2	@ Stromsgodset	1340	1
12	1968-08-11	30.29%	Lyn Oslo	1359	4	@ Rosenborg	1406	2
13	1968-04-28	30.60%	@ Viking	1225	2	Lyn Oslo	1328	1
14	1968-06-16	30.84%	@ Stromsgodset	1279	10	Lyn Oslo	1379	1
15	1968-05-19	30.92%	Sarpsborg	1264	1	@ Stromsgodset	1305	0
16	1968-10-20	31.67%	Brann	1254	3	@ Fredrikstad	1290	1
17	1968-08-25	31.72%	@ Viking	1205	3	Fredrikstad	1298	0
18	1968-06-12	31.88%	Skeid	1267	2	@ Fredrikstad	1301	0
19	1968-08-07	32.12%	@ Brann	1240	2	Stromsgodset	1331	1
20	1968-08-25	33.38%	@ Sarpsborg	1231	2	Stromsgodset	1311	0
21	1968-09-22	33.49%	@ Stromsgodset	1322	3	Rosenborg	1402	0
22	1968-04-25	34.26%	Valerenga	1281	2	@ Frigg Oslo	1297	1
23	1968-07-28	34.76%	Brann	1232	2	@ Sarpsborg	1244	1
24	1968-05-11	34.92%	@ Viking	1245	2	Stromsgodset	1314	1
25	1968-04-28	36.62%	@ Brann	1216	2	Sarpsborg	1273	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1968-06-16	61.21	@ Stromsgodset	10	1279	30.84%	Lyn Oslo	1	1379	50.35%
2	1968-09-23	54.13	Fredrikstad	6	1258	27.17%	@ Skeid	0	1331	54.08%
3	1968-09-08	41.50	@ Viking	6	1231	41.26%	Frigg Oslo	0	1255	39.74%
4	1968-10-20	36.24	Stromsgodset	6	1375	29.42%	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1428	51.73%
5	1968-05-26	33.57	@ Rosenborg	6	1336	50.33%	Skeid	0	1293	30.78%
6	1968-10-06	30.42	Brann	4	1223	37.71%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1214	43.30%
7	1968-05-06	29.50	@ Lyn Oslo	5	1318	48.70%	Frigg Oslo	0	1288	32.38%
8	1968-06-11	29.29	Brann	4	1209	15.31%	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1408	67.04%
9	1968-07-28	28.15	@ Lyn Oslo	11	1318	55.66%	Viking	2	1232	25.66%
10	1968-09-08	27.69	Stromsgodset	6	1294	43.37%	@ Valerenga	1	1245	37.66%
11	1968-08-25	26.09	@ Viking	3	1205	31.72%	Fredrikstad	0	1298	49.44%
12	1968-05-23	25.43	Rosenborg	4	1311	46.26%	@ Brann	0	1241	34.82%
13	1968-09-22	25.24	@ Stromsgodset	3	1322	33.49%	Rosenborg	0	1402	47.62%
14	1968-10-06	21.66	Stromsgodset	3	1347	41.35%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1312	39.66%
15	1968-05-20	21.03	Lyn Oslo	3	1359	42.76%	@ Skeid	0	1314	38.26%
16	1968-09-08	20.01	@ Rosenborg	7	1382	60.39%	Brann	1	1253	21.24%
17	1968-10-06	19.68	@ Viking	3	1285	45.75%	Skeid	0	1276	35.27%
18	1968-08-08	19.50	@ Skeid	3	1300	46.16%	Valerenga	0	1289	34.87%
19	1968-05-26	19.36	@ Frigg Oslo	4	1252	38.45%	Stromsgodset	1	1295	42.57%
20	1968-05-13	18.71	@ Brann	2	1221	29.47%	Skeid	0	1333	51.77%
21	1968-10-13	17.94	Lyn Oslo	4	1410	58.35%	@ Sarpsborg	0	1244	23.28%
22	1968-06-12	17.89	Skeid	2	1267	31.88%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1301	49.21%
23	1968-08-25	17.42	@ Sarpsborg	2	1231	33.38%	Stromsgodset	0	1311	47.74%
24	1968-04-28	16.37	@ Brann	2	1216	36.62%	Sarpsborg	0	1273	44.42%
25	1968-06-12	15.64	Valerenga	2	1265	38.99%	@ Viking	0	1247	42.01%