1968 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Lyn Oslo

28 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1964

Relegated

Valerenga

10 pts

Frigg Oslo · 11 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Lyn Oslo

5.71 points above expected

28 points · 22.29 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Valerenga

6.29 points below expected

10 points · 16.29 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Lyn Oslo Champion	18	14	0	4	28	57	33	+24	22.29	+5.71
2	Rosenborg	18	11	2	5	24	53	29	+24	22.98	+1.02
3	Viking	18	9	3	6	21	34	32	+2	16.81	+4.19
4	Stromsgodset	18	9	1	8	19	48	27	+21	18.65	+0.35
5	Brann	18	8	3	7	19	31	32	-1	14.94	+4.06
6	Skeid	18	9	1	8	19	22	33	-11	18.33	+0.67
7	Sarpsborg	18	5	5	8	15	14	25	-11	15.38	-0.38
8	Fredrikstad	18	6	2	10	14	28	34	-6	18.48	-4.48
9	Frigg Oslo Relegated	18	3	5	10	11	15	37	-22	15.85	-4.85
10	Valerenga Relegated	18	3	4	11	10	18	38	-20	16.29	-6.29

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Lyn Oslo	28	22.29	+5.71
2	Viking	21	16.81	+4.19
3	Brann	19	14.94	+4.06
4	Rosenborg	24	22.98	+1.02
5	Skeid	19	18.33	+0.67

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Valerenga	10	16.29	-6.29
2	Frigg Oslo	11	15.85	-4.85
3	Fredrikstad	14	18.48	-4.48
4	Sarpsborg	15	15.38	-0.38
5	Stromsgodset	19	18.65	+0.35

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Skeid	6	Jun 4 – Aug 13	1 in 179
2	Lyn Oslo	8	Jul 28 – Oct 13	1 in 152
3	Viking	5	Aug 11 – Oct 6	1 in 140
4	Stromsgodset	5	Sep 8 – Oct 20	1 in 66
5	Rosenborg	7	May 23 – Aug 7	1 in 64

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Stromsgodset	4	Jul 28 – Aug 25	1 in 127
2	Valerenga	6	Aug 8 – Oct 8	1 in 105
3	Lyn Oslo	2	Jun 11 – Jun 16	1 in 19
4	Skeid	3	Sep 23 – Oct 13	1 in 13
5	Frigg Oslo	3	Apr 25 – May 13	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Viking	6	Aug 11 – Oct 13	1 in 39
2	Skeid	6	Jun 4 – Aug 13	1 in 27
3	Lyn Oslo	8	Jul 28 – Oct 13	1 in 20
4	Rosenborg	8	May 20 – Aug 7	1 in 17
5	Frigg Oslo	5	May 20 – Jun 12	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Valerenga	8	Aug 8 – Oct 20	1 in 33
2	Sarpsborg	7	May 23 – Aug 7	1 in 30
3	Stromsgodset	4	May 11 – May 26	1 in 14
4	Frigg Oslo	5	Apr 25 – May 23	1 in 13
5	Skeid	4	May 13 – May 26	1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Lyn Oslo	1387	28	+12	8	6.7	+1.3
Rosenborg	1391	24	+16	7	6.7	+0.3
Viking	1288	21	+66	7	5.6	+1.4
Stromsgodset	1411	19	+123	10	5.3	+4.7
Brann	1265	19	+17	5	4.0	+1.0
Skeid	1246	19	-70	4	5.3	-1.3
Sarpsborg	1229	15	-13	4	3.8	+0.2
Fredrikstad	1265	14	+3	3	4.8	-1.8
Frigg Oslo	1150	11	-96	1	4.2	-3.2
Valerenga	1177	10	-59	1	3.6	-2.6

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRA	FRE	FO	LO	ROS	SAR	SKE	STR	VAL	VIK
Brann	—	1-0-1 2.54	1-1-0 2.65	1-0-1 1.53	0-0-2 2.11	2-0-0 2.55	1-0-1 2.15	1-0-1 2.18	1-1-0 2.59	0-1-1 2.50
Fredrikstad	1-0-1 3.15	—	1-1-0 3.25	0-0-2 2.10	0-0-2 2.41	1-0-1 3.23	1-0-1 2.72	0-0-2 2.82	1-1-0 3.31	1-0-1 3.45
Frigg Oslo	0-1-1 3.05	0-1-1 2.45	—	0-0-2 2.35	1-1-0 2.00	1-1-0 2.77	0-0-2 2.55	1-0-1 1.98	0-0-2 2.87	0-1-1 2.95
Lyn Oslo	1-0-1 4.17	2-0-0 3.59	2-0-0 3.35	—	2-0-0 2.77	2-0-0 3.95	2-0-0 3.25	0-0-2 3.48	2-0-0 4.04	1-0-1 3.61
Rosenborg	2-0-0 3.59	2-0-0 3.29	0-1-1 3.69	0-0-2 2.92	—	1-1-0 3.77	2-0-0 3.55	1-0-1 3.56	2-0-0 3.93	1-0-1 3.98
Sarpsborg	0-0-2 3.15	1-0-1 2.46	0-1-1 2.92	0-0-2 1.75	0-1-1 1.93	—	0-1-1 2.52	2-0-0 2.33	1-1-0 2.57	1-1-0 2.59
Skeid	1-0-1 3.55	1-0-1 2.97	2-0-0 3.14	0-0-2 2.44	0-0-2 2.15	1-1-0 3.18	—	1-0-1 2.80	2-0-0 2.98	1-0-1 2.77
Stromsgodset	1-0-1 3.51	2-0-0 2.88	1-0-1 3.71	2-0-0 2.21	1-0-1 2.14	0-0-2 3.37	1-0-1 2.90	—	1-1-0 3.12	0-0-2 3.65
Valerenga	0-1-1 3.10	0-1-1 2.39	2-0-0 2.82	0-0-2 1.66	0-0-2 1.77	0-1-1 3.13	0-0-2 2.71	0-1-1 2.57	—	1-0-1 2.68
Viking	1-1-0 3.20	1-0-1 2.24	1-1-0 2.74	1-0-1 2.08	1-0-1 1.72	0-1-1 3.10	1-0-1 2.92	2-0-0 2.05	1-0-1 3.01	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.73	+3.1
Allowed	0.16	-5.5
Differential	0.75	+2.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	4.44%	7.78%	3.33%	1.67%	2.22%	25.00%
1	4.44%	5.56%	8.33%	3.33%	2.22%	2.22%	26.11%
2	7.78%	8.33%	3.33%	2.78%	1.11%	2.78%	26.11%
3	3.33%	3.33%	2.78%	—	0.56%	—	10.00%
4	1.67%	2.22%	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	2.22%	2.22%	2.78%	—	—	—	7.22%
Total	25.00%	26.11%	26.11%	10.00%	5.56%	7.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.78	+0.00
SD	1.81	1.81	2.77
CV	1.02	1.02	—
Max	11	11	+9
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
1	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
2	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	50.00%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	38.89%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.72	1.78	-0.06
SD	1.23	1.70	2.53
CV	0.71	0.96	—
Max	4	7	+4
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	16.67%	27.78%	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.89	-0.33
SD	1.58	1.32	2.30
CV	1.02	0.70	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	11.11%	50.00%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	27.78%	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.83	2.06	-1.22
SD	1.10	1.86	2.24
CV	1.32	0.91	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%
2	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	33.33%	27.78%	22.22%	—	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	3.17	1.83	+1.33
SD	2.36	2.57	3.93
CV	0.74	1.40	—
Max	11	10	+9
Min	1	0	-9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	27.78%
Total	27.78%	11.11%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.94	1.61	+1.33
SD	2.31	1.24	2.72
CV	0.79	0.77	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%	11.11%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	22.22%	22.22%	—	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	1.39	-0.61
SD	0.88	1.58	1.65
CV	1.13	1.14	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	11.11%	33.33%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	22.22%	—	—	5.56%	—	44.44%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.22	1.83	-0.61
SD	1.00	1.92	2.68
CV	0.82	1.05	—
Max	3	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
1	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
3	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	16.67%	38.89%	27.78%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.67	1.50	+1.17
SD	2.52	1.10	3.03
CV	0.95	0.73	—
Max	10	4	+9
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	5.56%	33.33%
2	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	22.22%	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	2.11	-1.11
SD	0.84	1.91	1.97
CV	0.84	0.90	—
Max	2	7	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	—	—	11.11%	—	—	—	11.11%
2	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%	38.89%
3	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	27.78%	33.33%	27.78%	—	—	11.11%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.89	1.78	+0.11
SD	1.49	2.60	3.07
CV	0.79	1.46	—
Max	6	11	+6
Min	0	0	-9

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Stromsgodset	1411	19	18.65	+0.35	56.0%	7	12	16	18	22	24	28
Rosenborg	1391	24	22.98	+1.02	60.0%	13	16	20	23	26	29	31
Lyn Oslo	1387	28	22.29	+5.71	94.0%	14	16	20	22	25	29	32
Viking	1288	21	16.81	+4.19	92.0%	8	10	14	17	20	25	26
Brann	1265	19	14.94	+4.06	90.0%	7	8	12	15	17	21	23
Fredrikstad	1265	14	18.48	-4.48	15.0%	5	11	16	18	21	25	28
Skeid	1246	19	18.33	+0.67	61.0%	9	12	16	18	21	25	27
Sarpsborg	1229	15	15.38	-0.38	51.0%	4	11	12	15	18	22	25
Valerenga	1177	10	16.29	-6.29	8.0%	6	9	13	17	20	22	25
Frigg Oslo	1150	11	15.85	-4.85	13.0%	6	10	14	16	18	22	26

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+5.56%

No Edge

45.56%14.44%40.00%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 19.32 Elo pts.

137 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

0400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.24 goals

Neutral

-2+0.14+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.9

Top-Heavy

134610

Champion Preseason Odds

33%

Lyn Oslo, 2nd of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.22/gm

Comfortable

00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.14 * Some Luck: 3.14 to 4.71 * Lucky: 4.71 to 6.28 * Wild Swing: 6.28 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.72 * Close: 1.72 to 2.57 * Off: 2.57 to 3.43 * Way Off: 3.43 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.24 * A Surprise: 1.24 to 1.98 * Several Surprises: 1.98 to 2.73 * Many Surprises: 2.73 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.89 points

Some Luck

03.9310

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.20

02.155

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

94.00%

Lyn Oslo

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

8.00%

Valerenga

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

2 of 2

Several Surprises

01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.17

Top-Heavy

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 89.84

1.44

Moderate Separation

0.91.351.551.752.5

Interquartile Edge

68%

Clear Edge

50%61.5%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

82%

Even

50%85%100%

Close Games

Expected

47%

Few

0%41%100%

Blowouts

Expected

29%

Very Frequent

0%37%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.60

Predictable

00.592

Matchup Imbalance

0.23

Very Even

00.320.380.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.96

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.25

Weak Carryover

00.280.481

Upset Rate

Expected

36%

Very Upset-Prone

0%33%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

38%

Very Shaky

0%28%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.

Probability calibration

0.98

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.71

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.109

Well Within Noise

00.1710.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Lyn Oslo	33.00%	21.00%	16.00%	12.00%	6.00%	5.00%	1.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Rosenborg	36.00%	31.00%	11.00%	7.00%	5.00%	5.00%	2.00%	1.00%	2.00%	—
Viking	4.00%	4.00%	9.00%	16.00%	7.00%	17.00%	12.00%	10.00%	10.00%	11.00%
Stromsgodset	8.00%	13.00%	18.00%	9.00%	13.00%	8.00%	8.00%	11.00%	9.00%	3.00%
Brann	1.00%	2.00%	5.00%	8.00%	9.00%	9.00%	11.00%	19.00%	17.00%	19.00%
Skeid	7.00%	9.00%	9.00%	16.00%	12.00%	14.00%	11.00%	11.00%	7.00%	4.00%
Sarpsborg	2.00%	3.00%	6.00%	6.00%	7.00%	13.00%	11.00%	12.00%	22.00%	18.00%
Fredrikstad	6.00%	11.00%	11.00%	11.00%	16.00%	11.00%	16.00%	6.00%	5.00%	7.00%
Frigg Oslo	2.00%	2.00%	5.00%	4.00%	12.00%	9.00%	17.00%	16.00%	17.00%	16.00%
Valerenga	1.00%	4.00%	10.00%	11.00%	13.00%	9.00%	11.00%	10.00%	10.00%	21.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Lyn Oslo	98.00%	2.00%
Rosenborg	98.00%	2.00%
Skeid	89.00%	11.00%
Fredrikstad	88.00%	12.00%
Stromsgodset	88.00%	12.00%
Viking	79.00%	21.00%
Valerenga	69.00%	31.00%
Frigg Oslo	67.00%	33.00%
Brann	64.00%	36.00%
Sarpsborg	60.00%	40.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1968-04-25	Valerenga	L 1-2	47.9	1289	1276	48.28%	15.31%	36.41%	+0.24	-9.0	0
1968-04-25	@ Frigg Oslo	W 2-1	47.9	1276	1289	36.41%	15.31%	48.28%	-0.24	+9.0	2
1968-04-28	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	41.0	1209	1268	38.10%	15.31%	46.60%	-0.29	+17.6	2
1968-04-28	@ Brann	L 0-2	41.0	1268	1209	46.60%	15.31%	38.10%	+0.29	-17.5	0
1968-04-28	Rosenborg	L 0-1	43.5	1306	1314	45.22%	15.32%	39.46%	+0.08	-9.1	0
1968-04-28	@ Fredrikstad	W 1-0	43.5	1314	1306	39.46%	15.32%	45.22%	-0.08	+9.1	2
1968-04-28	Stromsgodset	L 2-4	51.5	1328	1283	52.56%	15.28%	32.16%	+0.47	-15.2	0
1968-04-28	@ Skeid	W 4-2	51.5	1283	1328	32.16%	15.28%	52.56%	-0.47	+15.2	2
1968-04-28	Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	49.0	1216	1320	32.06%	15.26%	52.69%	-0.62	+9.8	2
1968-04-28	@ Viking	L 1-2	49.0	1320	1216	52.69%	15.26%	32.06%	+0.62	-9.8	0
1968-05-02	Skeid	L 1-2	46.3	1285	1313	42.53%	15.32%	42.15%	-0.06	-8.1	2
1968-05-02	@ Valerenga	W 2-1	46.3	1313	1285	42.15%	15.32%	42.53%	+0.06	+8.1	2
1968-05-05	Viking	L 1-2	51.0	1323	1225	58.98%	15.20%	25.82%	+0.86	-10.9	2
1968-05-05	@ Rosenborg	W 2-1	51.0	1225	1323	25.82%	15.20%	58.98%	-0.86	+10.9	4
1968-05-05	Brann	W 2-0	35.9	1298	1227	55.76%	15.25%	28.99%	+0.66	+11.6	4
1968-05-05	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-2	35.9	1227	1298	28.99%	15.25%	55.76%	-0.66	-11.6	2
1968-05-06	Frigg Oslo	W 5-0	33.8	1310	1280	50.51%	15.30%	34.19%	+0.36	+31.5	2
1968-05-06	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-5	33.8	1280	1310	34.19%	15.30%	50.51%	-0.36	-31.5	0
1968-05-06	Fredrikstad	W 3-2	50.9	1251	1297	39.94%	15.31%	44.74%	-0.19	+8.0	2
1968-05-06	@ Sarpsborg	L 2-3	50.9	1297	1251	44.74%	15.31%	39.94%	+0.19	-8.0	0
1968-05-11	Valerenga	D 0-0	52.2	1259	1277	43.89%	15.32%	40.79%	+0.01	-0.2	3
1968-05-11	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	52.2	1277	1259	40.79%	15.32%	43.89%	-0.01	+0.2	3
1968-05-11	Stromsgodset	W 2-1	47.8	1236	1309	36.17%	15.29%	48.53%	-0.39	+9.1	6
1968-05-11	@ Viking	L 1-2	47.8	1309	1236	48.53%	15.29%	36.17%	+0.39	-9.1	4
1968-05-12	Rosenborg	W 3-1	42.5	1341	1313	50.40%	15.30%	34.30%	+0.35	+11.7	4
1968-05-12	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	42.5	1313	1341	34.30%	15.30%	50.40%	-0.35	-11.7	2
1968-05-13	Skeid	W 2-0	43.1	1215	1321	31.88%	15.25%	52.87%	-0.63	+19.7	4
1968-05-13	@ Brann	L 0-2	43.1	1321	1215	52.87%	15.25%	31.88%	+0.63	-19.7	2
1968-05-13	Fredrikstad	L 0-1	41.7	1249	1289	40.80%	15.32%	43.88%	-0.15	-8.3	0
1968-05-13	@ Frigg Oslo	W 1-0	41.7	1289	1249	43.88%	15.32%	40.80%	+0.15	+8.3	2
1968-05-19	Viking	W 2-1	42.7	1297	1245	53.33%	15.28%	31.39%	+0.52	+6.2	4
1968-05-19	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	42.7	1245	1297	31.39%	15.28%	53.33%	-0.52	-6.2	6
1968-05-19	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	45.1	1300	1259	52.07%	15.29%	32.65%	+0.45	-10.3	4
1968-05-19	@ Stromsgodset	W 1-0	45.1	1259	1300	32.65%	15.29%	52.07%	-0.45	+10.3	5
1968-05-19	Brann	D 2-2	59.5	1277	1235	52.15%	15.29%	32.56%	+0.45	-0.7	4
1968-05-19	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	59.5	1235	1277	32.56%	15.29%	52.15%	-0.45	+0.7	5
1968-05-20	Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	52.3	1301	1240	54.47%	15.26%	30.27%	+0.58	-1.2	3
1968-05-20	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	52.3	1240	1301	30.27%	15.26%	54.47%	-0.58	+1.2	1
1968-05-20	Lyn Oslo	L 0-3	37.8	1301	1353	39.08%	15.31%	45.61%	-0.24	-21.9	2
1968-05-20	@ Skeid	W 3-0	37.8	1353	1301	45.61%	15.31%	39.08%	+0.24	+21.9	6
1968-05-23	Rosenborg	L 0-4	35.1	1236	1300	37.40%	15.30%	47.30%	-0.33	-27.6	5
1968-05-23	@ Brann	W 4-0	35.1	1300	1236	47.30%	15.30%	37.40%	+0.33	+27.6	5
1968-05-23	Viking	D 0-0	52.0	1242	1239	46.80%	15.32%	37.88%	+0.16	-0.5	2
1968-05-23	@ Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	52.0	1239	1242	37.88%	15.32%	46.80%	-0.16	+0.5	7
1968-05-23	Skeid	D 1-1	55.5	1269	1279	45.00%	15.32%	39.68%	+0.07	-0.2	6
1968-05-23	@ Sarpsborg	D 1-1	55.5	1279	1269	39.68%	15.32%	45.00%	-0.07	+0.2	3
1968-05-23	Valerenga	D 1-1	55.6	1290	1276	48.31%	15.31%	36.38%	+0.24	-0.5	5
1968-05-23	@ Stromsgodset	D 1-1	55.6	1276	1290	36.38%	15.31%	48.31%	-0.24	+0.5	5
1968-05-24	Fredrikstad	W 3-1	41.1	1375	1303	55.90%	15.25%	28.85%	+0.67	+10.0	8
1968-05-24	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	41.1	1303	1375	28.85%	15.25%	55.90%	-0.67	-10.0	4
1968-05-26	Stromsgodset	W 4-1	43.0	1241	1289	39.61%	15.31%	45.07%	-0.21	+20.9	4
1968-05-26	@ Frigg Oslo	L 1-4	43.0	1289	1241	45.07%	15.31%	39.61%	+0.21	-20.9	5
1968-05-26	Skeid	W 6-0	33.1	1327	1280	52.86%	15.28%	31.86%	+0.49	+35.1	7
1968-05-26	@ Rosenborg	L 0-6	33.1	1280	1327	31.86%	15.28%	52.86%	-0.49	-35.1	3
1968-05-27	Valerenga	W 1-0	40.4	1293	1277	48.66%	15.31%	36.03%	+0.26	+7.5	6
1968-05-27	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-1	40.4	1277	1293	36.03%	15.31%	48.66%	-0.26	-7.5	5
1968-05-27	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	35.1	1385	1269	61.02%	15.16%	23.83%	+0.99	+9.8	10
1968-05-27	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	35.1	1269	1385	23.83%	15.16%	61.02%	-0.99	-9.8	6
1968-05-27	Brann	W 2-1	43.1	1240	1208	50.76%	15.30%	33.95%	+0.37	+6.7	9
1968-05-27	@ Viking	L 1-2	43.1	1208	1240	33.95%	15.30%	50.76%	-0.37	-6.7	5
1968-06-03	Rosenborg	L 2-5	42.9	1259	1362	32.16%	15.26%	52.58%	-0.62	-13.5	6
1968-06-03	@ Sarpsborg	W 5-2	42.9	1362	1259	52.58%	15.26%	32.16%	+0.62	+13.5	9
1968-06-03	Fredrikstad	W 2-1	46.2	1269	1301	41.91%	15.32%	42.77%	-0.09	+8.1	7
1968-06-03	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-2	46.2	1301	1269	42.77%	15.32%	41.91%	+0.09	-8.2	6
1968-06-04	Frigg Oslo	D 2-2	59.4	1201	1262	37.84%	15.31%	46.85%	-0.30	+0.3	6
1968-06-04	@ Brann	D 2-2	59.4	1262	1201	46.85%	15.31%	37.84%	+0.30	-0.3	5
1968-06-04	Viking	W 2-1	44.6	1244	1246	46.18%	15.32%	38.50%	+0.13	+7.4	5
1968-06-04	@ Skeid	L 1-2	44.6	1246	1244	38.50%	15.32%	46.18%	-0.13	-7.5	9
1968-06-05	Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	41.1	1270	1395	29.43%	15.22%	55.35%	-0.78	-10.2	5
1968-06-05	@ Valerenga	W 3-1	41.1	1395	1270	55.35%	15.22%	29.43%	+0.78	+10.2	12
1968-06-11	Brann	L 1-4	50.5	1405	1202	69.23%	14.89%	15.88%	+1.63	-31.3	12
1968-06-11	@ Lyn Oslo	W 4-1	50.5	1202	1405	15.88%	14.89%	69.23%	-1.63	+31.3	8
1968-06-12	Skeid	L 0-2	42.8	1292	1252	51.93%	15.29%	32.78%	+0.44	-19.3	6
1968-06-12	@ Fredrikstad	W 2-0	42.8	1252	1292	32.78%	15.29%	51.93%	-0.44	+19.3	7
1968-06-12	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	40.1	1262	1245	48.71%	15.31%	35.98%	+0.26	+7.5	7
1968-06-12	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	40.1	1245	1262	35.98%	15.31%	48.71%	-0.26	-7.5	6
1968-06-12	Stromsgodset	W 3-2	45.9	1376	1277	59.10%	15.20%	25.70%	+0.87	+5.0	11
1968-06-12	@ Rosenborg	L 2-3	45.9	1277	1376	25.70%	15.20%	59.10%	-0.87	-5.0	7
1968-06-12	Valerenga	L 0-2	40.2	1239	1259	43.56%	15.32%	41.12%	-0.01	-16.5	9
1968-06-12	@ Viking	W 2-0	40.2	1259	1239	41.12%	15.32%	43.56%	+0.01	+16.6	7
1968-06-16	Fredrikstad	L 2-3	49.6	1233	1273	40.76%	15.32%	43.92%	-0.15	-7.4	8
1968-06-16	@ Brann	W 3-2	49.6	1273	1233	43.92%	15.32%	40.76%	+0.15	+7.4	8
1968-06-16	Viking	D 0-0	52.0	1238	1222	48.61%	15.31%	36.08%	+0.26	-0.6	7
1968-06-16	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	52.0	1222	1238	36.08%	15.31%	48.61%	-0.26	+0.6	10
1968-06-16	Frigg Oslo	W 2-1	44.7	1271	1269	46.71%	15.32%	37.97%	+0.16	+7.4	9
1968-06-16	@ Skeid	L 1-2	44.7	1269	1271	37.97%	15.32%	46.71%	-0.16	-7.4	7
1968-06-16	Lyn Oslo	W 10-1	41.5	1272	1374	32.34%	15.26%	52.40%	-0.61	+65.4	9
1968-06-16	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-10	41.5	1374	1272	52.40%	15.26%	32.34%	+0.61	-65.4	12
1968-06-17	Rosenborg	L 2-3	47.8	1276	1381	31.97%	15.26%	52.77%	-0.63	-6.0	7
1968-06-17	@ Valerenga	W 3-2	47.8	1381	1276	52.77%	15.26%	31.97%	+0.63	+6.0	13
1968-07-28	Viking	W 11-2	33.7	1308	1223	57.51%	15.22%	27.27%	+0.77	+30.0	14
1968-07-28	@ Lyn Oslo	L 2-11	33.7	1223	1308	27.27%	15.22%	57.51%	-0.77	-30.0	10
1968-07-28	Fredrikstad	W 4-3	49.1	1387	1280	59.92%	15.18%	24.90%	+0.92	+4.7	15
1968-07-28	@ Rosenborg	L 3-4	49.1	1280	1387	24.90%	15.18%	59.92%	-0.92	-4.7	8
1968-07-28	Brann	L 1-2	47.4	1237	1226	48.08%	15.31%	36.61%	+0.23	-9.0	7
1968-07-28	@ Sarpsborg	W 2-1	47.4	1226	1237	36.61%	15.31%	48.08%	-0.23	+9.0	10
1968-07-28	Skeid	L 1-2	50.0	1337	1279	54.24%	15.27%	30.49%	+0.57	-10.1	9
1968-07-28	@ Stromsgodset	W 2-1	50.0	1279	1337	30.49%	15.27%	54.24%	-0.57	+10.1	11
1968-07-30	Frigg Oslo	W 2-0	38.4	1270	1262	47.55%	15.31%	37.14%	+0.20	+14.4	9
1968-07-30	@ Valerenga	L 0-2	38.4	1262	1270	37.14%	15.31%	47.55%	-0.20	-14.4	7
1968-08-07	Stromsgodset	W 2-1	48.7	1235	1327	33.57%	15.27%	51.15%	-0.54	+9.5	12
1968-08-07	@ Brann	L 1-2	48.7	1327	1235	51.15%	15.27%	33.57%	+0.54	-9.5	9
1968-08-07	Sarpsborg	W 4-1	38.9	1276	1228	52.82%	15.28%	31.90%	+0.49	+15.5	10
1968-08-07	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-4	38.9	1228	1276	31.90%	15.28%	52.82%	-0.49	-15.5	7
1968-08-07	Lyn Oslo	L 2-5	43.1	1248	1338	33.79%	15.28%	50.94%	-0.52	-14.1	7
1968-08-07	@ Frigg Oslo	W 5-2	43.1	1338	1248	50.94%	15.28%	33.79%	+0.52	+14.1	16
1968-08-07	Rosenborg	L 2-5	39.3	1193	1392	21.38%	15.04%	63.58%	-1.31	-9.4	10
1968-08-07	@ Viking	W 5-2	39.3	1392	1193	63.58%	15.04%	21.38%	+1.31	+9.4	17
1968-08-08	Valerenga	W 3-0	36.7	1289	1284	47.05%	15.32%	37.64%	+0.17	+21.2	13
1968-08-08	@ Skeid	L 0-3	36.7	1284	1289	37.64%	15.32%	47.05%	-0.17	-21.2	9
1968-08-11	Lyn Oslo	L 2-4	53.3	1401	1352	52.95%	15.28%	31.77%	+0.50	-15.2	17
1968-08-11	@ Rosenborg	W 4-2	53.3	1352	1401	31.77%	15.28%	52.95%	-0.50	+15.2	18
1968-08-11	Viking	L 2-3	56.1	1318	1184	62.87%	15.11%	22.02%	+1.12	-11.0	9
1968-08-11	@ Stromsgodset	W 3-2	56.1	1184	1318	22.02%	15.11%	62.87%	-1.12	+11.0	12
1968-08-12	Frigg Oslo	D 1-1	55.4	1291	1233	54.15%	15.27%	30.58%	+0.57	-1.1	11
1968-08-12	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	55.4	1233	1291	30.58%	15.27%	54.15%	-0.57	+1.1	8
1968-08-12	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	45.2	1263	1213	53.19%	15.28%	31.53%	+0.51	-10.5	9
1968-08-12	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	45.2	1213	1263	31.53%	15.28%	53.19%	-0.51	+10.5	9
1968-08-13	Brann	W 2-0	36.2	1310	1244	55.13%	15.26%	29.61%	+0.62	+11.9	15
1968-08-13	@ Skeid	L 0-2	36.2	1244	1310	29.61%	15.26%	55.13%	-0.62	-11.8	12
1968-08-22	Skeid	W 2-1	44.0	1368	1322	52.64%	15.28%	32.07%	+0.48	+6.4	20
1968-08-22	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	44.0	1322	1368	32.07%	15.28%	52.64%	-0.48	-6.4	15
1968-08-25	Rosenborg	W 2-1	51.2	1234	1386	26.39%	15.17%	58.44%	-0.97	+10.8	10
1968-08-25	@ Frigg Oslo	L 1-2	51.2	1386	1234	58.44%	15.17%	26.39%	+0.97	-10.8	17
1968-08-25	Stromsgodset	W 2-0	42.2	1223	1307	34.80%	15.28%	49.92%	-0.47	+18.7	11
1968-08-25	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-2	42.2	1307	1223	49.92%	15.28%	34.80%	+0.47	-18.7	9
1968-08-25	Fredrikstad	W 3-0	40.5	1195	1290	33.17%	15.27%	51.56%	-0.56	+27.9	14
1968-08-25	@ Viking	L 0-3	40.5	1290	1195	51.56%	15.27%	33.17%	+0.56	-27.9	11
1968-08-26	Valerenga	W 2-0	39.4	1232	1253	43.58%	15.32%	41.10%	-0.01	+15.8	14
1968-08-26	@ Brann	L 0-2	39.4	1253	1232	41.10%	15.32%	43.58%	+0.01	-15.8	9
1968-09-08	Brann	W 7-1	33.1	1375	1248	62.13%	15.13%	22.74%	+1.07	+21.5	19
1968-09-08	@ Rosenborg	L 1-7	33.1	1248	1375	22.74%	15.13%	62.13%	-1.07	-21.5	14
1968-09-08	Stromsgodset	L 1-6	38.3	1237	1288	39.21%	15.31%	45.48%	-0.23	-29.3	9
1968-09-08	@ Valerenga	W 6-1	38.3	1288	1237	45.48%	15.31%	39.21%	+0.23	+29.3	11
1968-09-08	Frigg Oslo	W 6-0	35.4	1222	1245	43.22%	15.32%	41.46%	-0.03	+44.1	16
1968-09-08	@ Viking	L 0-6	35.4	1245	1222	41.46%	15.32%	43.22%	+0.03	-44.1	10
1968-09-09	Lyn Oslo	L 1-4	39.4	1262	1374	31.09%	15.24%	53.66%	-0.68	-15.2	11
1968-09-09	@ Fredrikstad	W 4-1	39.4	1374	1262	53.66%	15.24%	31.09%	+0.68	+15.2	22
1968-09-10	Sarpsborg	W 1-0	38.1	1315	1242	56.07%	15.24%	28.68%	+0.68	+6.1	17
1968-09-10	@ Skeid	L 0-1	38.1	1242	1315	28.68%	15.24%	56.07%	-0.68	-6.1	11
1968-09-22	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	35.2	1227	1389	25.11%	15.14%	59.75%	-1.05	-10.2	14
1968-09-22	@ Brann	W 2-0	35.2	1389	1227	59.75%	15.14%	25.11%	+1.05	+10.2	24
1968-09-22	Frigg Oslo	D 0-0	51.9	1236	1201	51.16%	15.29%	33.55%	+0.40	-0.9	12
1968-09-22	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	51.9	1201	1236	33.55%	15.29%	51.16%	-0.40	+0.9	11
1968-09-22	Rosenborg	W 3-0	41.6	1317	1396	35.35%	15.29%	49.36%	-0.44	+26.8	13
1968-09-22	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-3	41.6	1396	1317	49.36%	15.29%	35.35%	+0.44	-26.8	19
1968-09-22	Viking	L 1-3	42.6	1208	1267	38.10%	15.31%	46.59%	-0.29	-12.8	9
1968-09-22	@ Valerenga	W 3-1	42.6	1267	1208	46.59%	15.31%	38.10%	+0.29	+12.8	18
1968-09-23	Fredrikstad	L 0-6	40.2	1321	1247	56.19%	15.24%	28.57%	+0.69	-57.8	17
1968-09-23	@ Skeid	W 6-0	40.2	1247	1321	28.57%	15.24%	56.19%	-0.69	+57.8	13
1968-10-06	Stromsgodset	L 0-3	38.3	1305	1344	40.90%	15.32%	43.79%	-0.14	-22.8	13
1968-10-06	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-0	38.3	1344	1305	43.79%	15.32%	40.90%	+0.14	+22.8	15
1968-10-06	Brann	L 0-4	36.9	1202	1216	44.45%	15.32%	40.23%	+0.04	-31.9	11
1968-10-06	@ Frigg Oslo	W 4-0	36.9	1216	1202	40.23%	15.32%	44.45%	-0.04	+32.0	16
1968-10-06	Sarpsborg	D 1-1	55.9	1369	1235	62.92%	15.11%	21.96%	+1.13	-1.9	20
1968-10-06	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	55.9	1235	1369	21.96%	15.11%	62.92%	-1.13	+1.9	13
1968-10-06	Skeid	W 3-0	36.1	1279	1264	48.61%	15.31%	36.08%	+0.26	+20.5	20
1968-10-06	@ Viking	L 0-3	36.1	1264	1279	36.08%	15.31%	48.61%	-0.26	-20.5	17
1968-10-08	Valerenga	W 2-0	32.2	1399	1195	69.33%	14.88%	15.79%	+1.64	+6.7	26
1968-10-08	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	32.2	1195	1399	15.79%	14.88%	69.33%	-1.64	-6.7	9
1968-10-13	Viking	D 2-2	59.7	1248	1300	39.14%	15.31%	45.55%	-0.24	+0.2	17
1968-10-13	@ Brann	D 2-2	59.7	1300	1248	45.55%	15.31%	39.14%	+0.24	-0.2	21
1968-10-13	Lyn Oslo	L 0-4	31.9	1237	1406	24.39%	15.12%	60.49%	-1.10	-18.9	13
1968-10-13	@ Sarpsborg	W 4-0	31.9	1406	1237	60.49%	15.12%	24.39%	+1.10	+18.9	28
1968-10-13	Rosenborg	L 0-2	36.5	1243	1368	29.54%	15.22%	55.23%	-0.77	-11.8	17
1968-10-13	@ Skeid	W 2-0	36.5	1368	1243	55.23%	15.22%	29.54%	+0.77	+11.8	22
1968-10-13	Frigg Oslo	W 3-1	36.2	1367	1170	68.67%	14.91%	16.42%	+1.58	+6.0	17
1968-10-13	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-3	36.2	1170	1367	16.42%	14.91%	68.67%	-1.58	-6.0	11
1968-10-15	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	55.2	1188	1282	33.37%	15.27%	51.36%	-0.55	+0.8	10
1968-10-15	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	55.2	1282	1188	51.36%	15.27%	33.37%	+0.55	-0.8	14
1968-10-20	Brann	L 1-3	46.7	1281	1249	50.92%	15.30%	33.79%	+0.38	-16.4	14
1968-10-20	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-1	46.7	1249	1281	33.79%	15.30%	50.92%	-0.38	+16.5	19
1968-10-20	Skeid	L 0-2	37.9	1164	1231	36.97%	15.30%	47.73%	-0.35	-14.4	11
1968-10-20	@ Frigg Oslo	W 2-0	37.9	1231	1164	47.73%	15.30%	36.97%	+0.35	+14.4	19
1968-10-20	Stromsgodset	L 1-6	45.6	1425	1373	53.45%	15.28%	31.28%	+0.52	-38.5	28
1968-10-20	@ Lyn Oslo	W 6-1	45.6	1373	1425	31.28%	15.28%	53.45%	-0.52	+38.5	19
1968-10-20	Valerenga	W 7-2	33.6	1379	1189	68.15%	14.94%	16.91%	+1.54	+11.5	24
1968-10-20	@ Rosenborg	L 2-7	33.6	1189	1379	16.91%	14.94%	68.15%	-1.54	-11.5	10
1968-10-20	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	46.4	1300	1218	57.06%	15.23%	27.71%	+0.74	-11.2	21
1968-10-20	@ Viking	W 1-0	46.4	1218	1300	27.71%	15.23%	57.06%	-0.74	+11.2	15

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1968-06-11	15.88%	Brann	1202	4	@ Lyn Oslo	1405	1
2	1968-08-11	22.02%	Viking	1184	3	@ Stromsgodset	1318	2
3	1968-05-05	25.82%	Viking	1225	2	@ Rosenborg	1323	1
4	1968-08-25	26.39%	@ Frigg Oslo	1234	2	Rosenborg	1386	1
5	1968-10-20	27.71%	Sarpsborg	1218	1	@ Viking	1300	0
6	1968-09-23	28.57%	Fredrikstad	1247	6	@ Skeid	1321	0
7	1968-07-28	30.49%	Skeid	1279	2	@ Stromsgodset	1337	1
8	1968-10-20	31.28%	Stromsgodset	1373	6	@ Lyn Oslo	1425	1
9	1968-08-12	31.53%	Sarpsborg	1213	1	@ Valerenga	1263	0
10	1968-08-11	31.77%	Lyn Oslo	1352	4	@ Rosenborg	1401	2
11	1968-05-13	31.88%	@ Brann	1215	2	Skeid	1321	0
12	1968-04-28	32.06%	@ Viking	1216	2	Lyn Oslo	1320	1
13	1968-04-28	32.16%	Stromsgodset	1283	4	@ Skeid	1328	2
14	1968-06-16	32.34%	@ Stromsgodset	1272	10	Lyn Oslo	1374	1
15	1968-05-19	32.65%	Sarpsborg	1259	1	@ Stromsgodset	1300	0
16	1968-06-12	32.78%	Skeid	1252	2	@ Fredrikstad	1292	0
17	1968-08-25	33.17%	@ Viking	1195	3	Fredrikstad	1290	0
18	1968-08-07	33.57%	@ Brann	1235	2	Stromsgodset	1327	1
19	1968-10-20	33.79%	Brann	1249	3	@ Fredrikstad	1281	1
20	1968-08-25	34.80%	@ Sarpsborg	1223	2	Stromsgodset	1307	0
21	1968-09-22	35.35%	@ Stromsgodset	1317	3	Rosenborg	1396	0
22	1968-05-11	36.17%	@ Viking	1236	2	Stromsgodset	1309	1
23	1968-04-25	36.41%	Valerenga	1276	2	@ Frigg Oslo	1289	1
24	1968-07-28	36.61%	Brann	1226	2	@ Sarpsborg	1237	1
25	1968-04-28	38.10%	@ Brann	1209	2	Sarpsborg	1268	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1968-06-16	65.41	@ Stromsgodset	10	1272	32.34%	Lyn Oslo	1	1374	52.40%	15.26%
2	1968-09-23	57.84	Fredrikstad	6	1247	28.57%	@ Skeid	0	1321	56.19%	15.24%
3	1968-09-08	44.07	@ Viking	6	1222	43.22%	Frigg Oslo	0	1245	41.46%	15.32%
4	1968-10-20	38.47	Stromsgodset	6	1373	31.28%	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1425	53.45%	15.28%
5	1968-05-26	35.12	@ Rosenborg	6	1327	52.86%	Skeid	0	1280	31.86%	15.28%
6	1968-10-06	31.95	Brann	4	1216	40.23%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1202	44.45%	15.32%
7	1968-05-06	31.45	@ Lyn Oslo	5	1310	50.51%	Frigg Oslo	0	1280	34.19%	15.30%
8	1968-06-11	31.34	Brann	4	1202	15.88%	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1405	69.23%	14.89%
9	1968-07-28	30.03	@ Lyn Oslo	11	1308	57.51%	Viking	2	1223	27.27%	15.22%
10	1968-09-08	29.31	Stromsgodset	6	1288	45.48%	@ Valerenga	1	1237	39.21%	15.31%
11	1968-08-25	27.90	@ Viking	3	1195	33.17%	Fredrikstad	0	1290	51.56%	15.27%
12	1968-05-23	27.57	Rosenborg	4	1300	47.30%	@ Brann	0	1236	37.40%	15.30%
13	1968-09-22	26.83	@ Stromsgodset	3	1317	35.35%	Rosenborg	0	1396	49.36%	15.29%
14	1968-10-06	22.78	Stromsgodset	3	1344	43.79%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1305	40.90%	15.32%
15	1968-05-20	21.91	Lyn Oslo	3	1353	45.61%	@ Skeid	0	1301	39.08%	15.31%
16	1968-09-08	21.45	@ Rosenborg	7	1375	62.13%	Brann	1	1248	22.74%	15.13%
17	1968-08-08	21.22	@ Skeid	3	1289	47.05%	Valerenga	0	1284	37.64%	15.32%
18	1968-05-26	20.87	@ Frigg Oslo	4	1241	39.61%	Stromsgodset	1	1289	45.07%	15.31%
19	1968-10-06	20.46	@ Viking	3	1279	48.61%	Skeid	0	1264	36.08%	15.31%
20	1968-05-13	19.66	@ Brann	2	1215	31.88%	Skeid	0	1321	52.87%	15.25%
21	1968-06-12	19.34	Skeid	2	1252	32.78%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1292	51.93%	15.29%
22	1968-10-13	18.91	Lyn Oslo	4	1406	60.49%	@ Sarpsborg	0	1237	24.39%	15.12%
23	1968-08-25	18.66	@ Sarpsborg	2	1223	34.80%	Stromsgodset	0	1307	49.92%	15.28%
24	1968-04-28	17.55	@ Brann	2	1209	38.10%	Sarpsborg	0	1268	46.60%	15.31%
25	1968-06-12	16.55	Valerenga	2	1259	41.12%	@ Viking	0	1239	43.56%	15.32%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1968-10-13	59.7	@ Brann	2	1248	39.14%	Viking	2	1300	45.55%	15.31%
2	1968-05-19	59.5	@ Valerenga	2	1277	52.15%	Brann	2	1235	32.56%	15.29%
3	1968-06-04	59.4	@ Brann	2	1201	37.84%	Frigg Oslo	2	1262	46.85%	15.31%
4	1968-08-11	56.1	Viking	3	1184	22.02%	@ Stromsgodset	2	1318	62.87%	15.11%
5	1968-10-06	55.9	@ Rosenborg	1	1369	62.92%	Sarpsborg	1	1235	21.96%	15.11%
6	1968-05-23	55.6	@ Stromsgodset	1	1290	48.31%	Valerenga	1	1276	36.38%	15.31%
7	1968-05-23	55.5	@ Sarpsborg	1	1269	45.00%	Skeid	1	1279	39.68%	15.32%
8	1968-08-12	55.4	@ Fredrikstad	1	1291	54.15%	Frigg Oslo	1	1233	30.58%	15.27%
9	1968-10-15	55.2	@ Valerenga	1	1188	33.37%	Fredrikstad	1	1282	51.36%	15.27%
10	1968-08-11	53.3	Lyn Oslo	4	1352	31.77%	@ Rosenborg	2	1401	52.95%	15.28%
11	1968-05-20	52.3	@ Rosenborg	0	1301	54.47%	Frigg Oslo	0	1240	30.27%	15.26%
12	1968-05-11	52.2	@ Sarpsborg	0	1259	43.89%	Valerenga	0	1277	40.79%	15.32%
13	1968-05-23	52.0	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1242	46.80%	Viking	0	1239	37.88%	15.32%
14	1968-06-16	52.0	@ Sarpsborg	0	1238	48.61%	Viking	0	1222	36.08%	15.31%
15	1968-09-22	51.9	@ Sarpsborg	0	1236	51.16%	Frigg Oslo	0	1201	33.55%	15.29%
16	1968-04-28	51.5	Stromsgodset	4	1283	32.16%	@ Skeid	2	1328	52.56%	15.28%
17	1968-08-25	51.2	@ Frigg Oslo	2	1234	26.39%	Rosenborg	1	1386	58.44%	15.17%
18	1968-05-05	51.0	Viking	2	1225	25.82%	@ Rosenborg	1	1323	58.98%	15.20%
19	1968-05-06	50.9	@ Sarpsborg	3	1251	39.94%	Fredrikstad	2	1297	44.74%	15.31%
20	1968-06-11	50.5	Brann	4	1202	15.88%	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1405	69.23%	14.89%
21	1968-07-28	50.0	Skeid	2	1279	30.49%	@ Stromsgodset	1	1337	54.24%	15.27%
22	1968-06-16	49.6	Fredrikstad	3	1273	43.92%	@ Brann	2	1233	40.76%	15.32%
23	1968-07-28	49.1	@ Rosenborg	4	1387	59.92%	Fredrikstad	3	1280	24.90%	15.18%
24	1968-04-28	49.0	@ Viking	2	1216	32.06%	Lyn Oslo	1	1320	52.69%	15.26%
25	1968-08-07	48.7	@ Brann	2	1235	33.57%	Stromsgodset	1	1327	51.15%	15.27%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1968-10-13	31.9	Lyn Oslo	4	1406	60.49%	@ Sarpsborg	0	1237	24.39%	15.12%
2	1968-10-08	32.2	@ Lyn Oslo	2	1399	69.33%	Valerenga	0	1195	15.79%	14.88%
3	1968-05-26	33.1	@ Rosenborg	6	1327	52.86%	Skeid	0	1280	31.86%	15.28%
4	1968-09-08	33.1	@ Rosenborg	7	1375	62.13%	Brann	1	1248	22.74%	15.13%
5	1968-10-20	33.6	@ Rosenborg	7	1379	68.15%	Valerenga	2	1189	16.91%	14.94%
6	1968-07-28	33.7	@ Lyn Oslo	11	1308	57.51%	Viking	2	1223	27.27%	15.22%
7	1968-05-06	33.8	@ Lyn Oslo	5	1310	50.51%	Frigg Oslo	0	1280	34.19%	15.30%
8	1968-05-23	35.1	Rosenborg	4	1300	47.30%	@ Brann	0	1236	37.40%	15.30%
9	1968-05-27	35.1	@ Lyn Oslo	2	1385	61.02%	Sarpsborg	0	1269	23.83%	15.16%
10	1968-09-22	35.2	Lyn Oslo	2	1389	59.75%	@ Brann	0	1227	25.11%	15.14%
11	1968-09-08	35.4	@ Viking	6	1222	43.22%	Frigg Oslo	0	1245	41.46%	15.32%
12	1968-05-05	35.9	@ Stromsgodset	2	1298	55.76%	Brann	0	1227	28.99%	15.25%
13	1968-10-06	36.1	@ Viking	3	1279	48.61%	Skeid	0	1264	36.08%	15.31%
14	1968-08-13	36.2	@ Skeid	2	1310	55.13%	Brann	0	1244	29.61%	15.26%
15	1968-10-13	36.2	@ Stromsgodset	3	1367	68.67%	Frigg Oslo	1	1170	16.42%	14.91%
16	1968-10-13	36.5	Rosenborg	2	1368	55.23%	@ Skeid	0	1243	29.54%	15.22%
17	1968-08-08	36.7	@ Skeid	3	1289	47.05%	Valerenga	0	1284	37.64%	15.32%
18	1968-10-06	36.9	Brann	4	1216	40.23%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1202	44.45%	15.32%
19	1968-05-20	37.8	Lyn Oslo	3	1353	45.61%	@ Skeid	0	1301	39.08%	15.31%
20	1968-10-20	37.9	Skeid	2	1231	47.73%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1164	36.97%	15.30%
21	1968-09-10	38.1	@ Skeid	1	1315	56.07%	Sarpsborg	0	1242	28.68%	15.24%
22	1968-09-08	38.3	Stromsgodset	6	1288	45.48%	@ Valerenga	1	1237	39.21%	15.31%
23	1968-10-06	38.3	Stromsgodset	3	1344	43.79%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1305	40.90%	15.32%
24	1968-07-30	38.4	@ Valerenga	2	1270	47.55%	Frigg Oslo	0	1262	37.14%	15.31%
25	1968-08-07	38.9	@ Fredrikstad	4	1276	52.82%	Sarpsborg	1	1228	31.90%	15.28%