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1969 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

27 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1967

Relegated

Start

12 pts

Lyn Oslo · 12 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Rosenborg

4.29 points above expected

27 points · 22.71 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lyn Oslo

4.15 points below expected

12 points · 16.15 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Rosenborg Champion 18 13 1 4 27 36 15 +21 22.71 +4.29
2 Fredrikstad 18 8 6 4 22 28 15 +13 18.77 +3.23
3 Stromsgodset 18 8 6 4 22 34 22 +12 21.40 +0.60
4 Skeid 18 9 2 7 20 29 22 +7 18.68 +1.32
5 Viking 18 6 6 6 18 18 17 +1 17.00 +1.00
6 Brann 18 6 6 6 18 20 26 -6 16.46 +1.54
7 Sarpsborg 18 6 5 7 17 22 22 0 17.84 -0.84
8 Hodd 18 4 4 10 12 24 39 -15 15.68 -3.68
9 Start Relegated 18 5 2 11 12 20 35 -15 15.31 -3.31
10 Lyn Oslo Relegated 18 4 4 10 12 21 39 -18 16.15 -4.15

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Rosenborg 27 22.71 +4.29
2 Fredrikstad 22 18.77 +3.23
3 Brann 18 16.46 +1.54
4 Skeid 20 18.68 +1.32
5 Viking 18 17.00 +1.00

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Lyn Oslo 12 16.15 -4.15
2 Hodd 12 15.68 -3.68
3 Start 12 15.31 -3.31
4 Sarpsborg 17 17.84 -0.84
5 Stromsgodset 22 21.40 +0.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Skeid 5 Jun 22 – Aug 18 1 in 187
2 Sarpsborg 4 May 11 – May 27 1 in 35
3 Rosenborg 4 Apr 27 – May 16 1 in 24
4 Start 2 Jun 15 – Jun 22 1 in 15
5 Fredrikstad 2 May 4 – May 11 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lyn Oslo 5 Jun 13 – Aug 11 1 in 183
2 Hodd 5 Jul 27 – Aug 31 1 in 49
3 Start 4 May 4 – May 22 1 in 26
4 Sarpsborg 3 Jul 28 – Aug 11 1 in 13
5 Viking 2 May 11 – May 15 1 in 9

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Viking 7 Aug 10 – Oct 19 1 in 46
2 Brann 7 Aug 11 – Oct 19 1 in 39
3 Sarpsborg 5 Aug 18 – Oct 12 1 in 21
4 Skeid 6 Jun 22 – Sep 1 1 in 20
5 Lyn Oslo 4 Aug 18 – Sep 28 1 in 17

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Hodd 10 May 21 – Aug 31 1 in 59
2 Skeid 5 Sep 1 – Oct 19 1 in 19
3 Sarpsborg 6 Jun 9 – Aug 11 1 in 16
4 Lyn Oslo 6 Jun 13 – Aug 18 1 in 13
5 Viking 6 May 11 – Jun 15 1 in 11

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Rosenborg 1490 27 -10 6 6.7 -0.7
Fredrikstad 1453 22 +33 8 5.1 +2.9
Stromsgodset 1478 22 -10 5 5.8 -0.8
Skeid 1420 20 -34 2 5.5 -3.5
Viking 1395 18 +26 7 4.9 +2.1
Brann 1365 18 +12 6 4.6 +1.4
Sarpsborg 1351 17 -9 5 5.6 -0.6
Hodd 1289 12 +27 5 3.6 +1.4
Lyn Oslo 1261 12 +1 4 4.4 -0.4
Start 1268 12 -36 2 3.8 -1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE HOD LO ROS SAR SKE STA STR VIK
Brann —
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
2.89
1-1-0
2.92
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
2.73
0-1-1
2.41
1-1-0
3.02
1-0-1
1.89
1-1-0
2.58
Fredrikstad
1-1-0
3.24
 —
2-0-0
3.17
2-0-0
2.86
1-0-1
2.17
0-0-2
3.24
1-0-1
2.87
1-1-0
3.73
0-2-0
2.20
0-2-0
3.08
Hodd
0-1-1
2.62
0-0-2
2.35
 —
0-1-1
2.77
0-0-2
1.64
1-1-0
2.15
0-1-1
2.18
1-0-1
2.85
1-0-1
2.12
1-0-1
2.38
Lyn Oslo
0-1-1
2.59
0-0-2
2.64
1-1-0
2.73
 —
0-0-2
1.60
1-1-0
2.30
1-0-1
2.29
0-0-2
3.04
0-1-1
2.28
1-0-1
2.78
Rosenborg
2-0-0
3.52
1-0-1
3.35
2-0-0
3.89
2-0-0
3.93
 —
2-0-0
3.22
1-0-1
3.38
2-0-0
3.71
1-1-0
2.78
0-0-2
3.79
Sarpsborg
1-0-1
2.78
2-0-0
2.27
0-1-1
3.37
0-1-1
3.22
0-0-2
2.29
 —
0-0-2
2.68
2-0-0
3.15
1-1-0
2.10
0-2-0
2.96
Skeid
1-1-0
3.09
1-0-1
2.64
1-1-0
3.33
1-0-1
3.22
1-0-1
2.14
2-0-0
2.82
 —
1-0-1
3.14
0-0-2
2.34
1-0-1
3.02
Start
0-1-1
2.48
0-1-1
1.79
1-0-1
2.65
2-0-0
2.47
0-0-2
1.82
0-0-2
2.36
1-0-1
2.37
 —
0-0-2
1.46
1-0-1
2.38
Stromsgodset
1-0-1
3.64
0-2-0
3.31
1-0-1
3.41
1-1-0
3.26
0-1-1
2.73
0-1-1
3.42
2-0-0
3.17
2-0-0
4.07
 —
1-1-0
3.37
Viking
0-1-1
2.93
0-2-0
2.43
1-0-1
3.13
1-0-1
2.73
2-0-0
1.73
0-2-0
2.55
1-0-1
2.49
1-0-1
3.13
0-1-1
2.14
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.60 +6.2
Allowed 0.79 -4.8
Differential 0.96 +3.7

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%8.89%6.67%3.33%1.67%1.11%28.33%
18.89%8.89%6.67%6.11%0.56%1.67%32.78%
26.67%6.67%6.67%—0.56%0.56%21.11%
33.33%6.11%—1.11%0.56%—11.11%
41.67%0.56%0.56%0.56%——3.33%
5+1.11%1.67%0.56%———3.33%
Total28.33%32.78%21.11%11.11%3.33%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 1.40 +0.00
SD 1.34 1.34 2.05
CV 0.96 0.96 —
Max 8 8 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%———5.56%27.78%
111.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
25.56%16.67%11.11%——5.56%38.89%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%50.00%11.11%5.56%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.44 -0.33
SD 0.83 1.50 1.68
CV 0.75 1.04 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%22.22%—5.56%——38.89%
25.56%—————5.56%
3—11.11%————11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%44.44%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 0.83 +0.72
SD 1.58 0.86 1.87
CV 1.02 1.03 —
Max 5 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%27.78%
15.56%—22.22%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
2—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%33.33%16.67%5.56%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.17 -0.83
SD 1.33 1.47 2.23
CV 1.00 0.68 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——16.67%11.11%5.56%—33.33%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%—5.56%38.89%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total11.11%22.22%38.89%16.67%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 2.17 -1.00
SD 1.29 1.79 2.52
CV 1.11 0.83 —
Max 5 8 +4
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
111.11%——5.56%——16.67%
216.67%16.67%——5.56%—38.89%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total50.00%33.33%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 0.83 +1.17
SD 1.41 1.15 2.01
CV 0.71 1.38 —
Max 5 4 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%22.22%———38.89%
111.11%5.56%—11.11%——27.78%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
311.11%—————11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total38.89%11.11%38.89%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.22 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.11 1.85
CV 1.14 0.91 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—16.67%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
15.56%—11.11%———16.67%
216.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
3—16.67%—5.56%——22.22%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.22 +0.39
SD 1.29 1.11 1.94
CV 0.80 0.91 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%5.56%16.67%——27.78%
15.56%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%44.44%
211.11%5.56%————16.67%
35.56%———5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%22.22%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.94 -0.83
SD 0.96 1.55 2.04
CV 0.87 0.80 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
2—11.11%11.11%———22.22%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.22 +0.67
SD 1.94 0.94 2.06
CV 1.03 0.77 —
Max 8 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%————33.33%
116.67%11.11%5.56%11.11%——44.44%
2—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%11.11%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.94 +0.06
SD 0.97 1.00 1.30
CV 0.97 1.06 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Rosenborg 1490 27 22.71 +4.29 93.0% 16 17 20 23 25 28 29
Stromsgodset 1478 22 21.40 +0.60 69.0% 14 16 19 21 24 27 29
Fredrikstad 1453 22 18.77 +3.23 87.0% 12 13 16 19 21 24 27
Skeid 1420 20 18.68 +1.32 66.0% 9 12 15 19 21 24 27
Viking 1395 18 17.00 +1.00 61.0% 8 11 14 17 20 23 26
Brann 1365 18 16.46 +1.54 67.0% 11 12 14 16 19 21 23
Sarpsborg 1351 17 17.84 -0.84 47.0% 9 12 15 18 20 24 26
Hodd 1289 12 15.68 -3.68 15.0% 5 11 14 16 17 21 23
Start 1268 12 15.31 -3.31 21.0% 6 8 13 15 18 21 24
Lyn Oslo 1261 12 16.15 -4.15 12.0% 10 11 14 16 18 21 24

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+21.11%
Clear Edge
48.89%23.33%27.78%
Elo Value
Home Edge
174 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
074.47500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.51 goals
Home-Tilted
-2+0.43+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.1
Top-Heavy
134610
Champion Preseason Odds
49%
Rosenborg, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.28/gm
Comfortable
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.74 * Some Luck: 2.74 to 4.11 * Lucky: 4.11 to 5.48 * Wild Swing: 5.48 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.69 * Close: 1.69 to 2.54 * Off: 2.54 to 3.38 * Way Off: 3.38 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.23 * A Surprise: 1.23 to 1.97 * Several Surprises: 1.97 to 2.71 * Many Surprises: 2.71 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.77 points
Some Luck
03.429
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
02.115
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
93.00%
Rosenborg
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
12.00%
Lyn Oslo
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
0 of 2
As Expected
01.22

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.15
Even
00.140.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 84.65
1.35
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.351.551.752.5
Interquartile Edge
69%
Clear Edge
50%61.5%69.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
79%
Even
50%83%100%
Close Games
Expected
56%
Some Drama
0%53%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Occasional
0%22%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.602
Matchup Imbalance
0.39
Lopsided
00.320.380.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.73
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.55
Strong Carryover
00.280.481
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Chalky
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
24%
Shaky Favorites
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.24 * Above Noise: 0.24 to 0.32 * Well Above Noise: 0.32 and up.
Probability calibration
0.51
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.04
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.053
Well Within Noise
00.1590.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Rosenborg49.00%16.00%11.00%8.00%9.00%4.00%3.00%———
Fredrikstad3.00%18.00%18.00%10.00%13.00%15.00%9.00%6.00%5.00%3.00%
Stromsgodset26.00%19.00%18.00%13.00%13.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%1.00%—
Skeid9.00%18.00%14.00%14.00%8.00%7.00%9.00%8.00%8.00%5.00%
Viking3.00%9.00%9.00%11.00%9.00%12.00%11.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%
Brann1.00%3.00%8.00%8.00%14.00%12.00%11.00%12.00%18.00%13.00%
Sarpsborg6.00%7.00%10.00%15.00%11.00%13.00%8.00%11.00%10.00%9.00%
Hodd2.00%2.00%5.00%5.00%7.00%10.00%17.00%23.00%10.00%19.00%
Start—4.00%2.00%8.00%8.00%11.00%13.00%12.00%20.00%22.00%
Lyn Oslo1.00%4.00%5.00%8.00%8.00%11.00%15.00%13.00%18.00%17.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Rosenborg 100% —
Stromsgodset 99.00% 1.00%
Fredrikstad 92.00% 8.00%
Skeid 87.00% 13.00%
Sarpsborg 81.00% 19.00%
Viking 78.00% 22.00%
Hodd 71.00% 29.00%
Brann 69.00% 31.00%
Lyn Oslo 65.00% 35.00%
Start 58.00% 42.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1969-04-27 Hodd D 2-261.1 1372 1362 53.99% 24.49% 21.52%+0.49 -1.4 1
1969-04-27 @ Brann D 2-261.1 1362 1372 21.52% 24.49% 53.99%-0.49 +1.4 1
1969-04-27 Viking W 1-039.7 1411 1378 56.34% 24.34% 19.32%+0.62 +5.8 2
1969-04-27 @ Lyn Oslo L 0-139.7 1378 1411 19.32% 24.34% 56.34%-0.62 -5.8 0
1969-04-27 Rosenborg L 0-147.6 1359 1413 46.54% 24.73% 28.73%+0.12 -11.7 0
1969-04-27 @ Sarpsborg W 1-047.6 1413 1359 28.73% 24.73% 46.54%-0.12 +11.7 2
1969-04-27 Skeid W 2-145.7 1319 1360 48.08% 24.70% 27.22%+0.19 +7.2 2
1969-04-27 @ Start L 1-245.7 1360 1319 27.22% 24.70% 48.08%-0.19 -7.2 0
1969-04-27 Fredrikstad D 0-052.4 1421 1378 57.37% 24.26% 18.36%+0.68 -2.5 1
1969-04-27 @ Stromsgodset D 0-052.4 1378 1421 18.36% 24.26% 57.37%-0.68 +2.5 1
1969-05-04 Lyn Oslo W 2-039.1 1380 1417 48.64% 24.69% 26.67%+0.22 +14.2 3
1969-05-04 @ Fredrikstad L 0-239.1 1417 1380 26.67% 24.69% 48.64%-0.22 -14.2 2
1969-05-04 Stromsgodset W 1-042.5 1363 1418 46.33% 24.73% 28.94%+0.11 +8.0 3
1969-05-04 @ Hodd L 0-142.5 1418 1363 28.94% 24.73% 46.33%-0.11 -8.1 1
1969-05-04 Brann W 5-033.8 1424 1371 58.35% 24.18% 17.46%+0.74 +23.4 4
1969-05-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-533.8 1371 1424 17.46% 24.18% 58.35%-0.74 -23.4 1
1969-05-04 Sarpsborg W 2-036.0 1353 1347 53.47% 24.52% 22.01%+0.46 +12.2 2
1969-05-04 @ Skeid L 0-236.0 1347 1353 22.01% 24.52% 53.47%-0.46 -12.2 0
1969-05-04 Start W 1-037.7 1372 1326 57.67% 24.24% 18.09%+0.70 +5.5 2
1969-05-04 @ Viking L 0-137.7 1326 1372 18.09% 24.24% 57.67%-0.70 -5.5 2
1969-05-11 Fredrikstad L 1-351.2 1371 1394 50.27% 24.65% 25.08%+0.30 -20.4 3
1969-05-11 @ Hodd W 3-151.2 1394 1371 25.08% 24.65% 50.27%-0.30 +20.4 5
1969-05-11 Brann W 5-242.2 1335 1347 51.55% 24.60% 23.85%+0.36 +13.8 2
1969-05-11 @ Sarpsborg L 2-542.2 1347 1335 23.85% 24.60% 51.55%-0.36 -13.8 1
1969-05-11 Rosenborg L 1-444.5 1320 1448 36.49% 24.67% 38.83%-0.30 -22.2 2
1969-05-11 @ Start W 4-144.5 1448 1320 38.83% 24.67% 36.49%+0.30 +22.2 6
1969-05-11 Viking W 3-142.3 1410 1378 56.31% 24.35% 19.34%+0.62 +9.5 3
1969-05-11 @ Stromsgodset L 1-342.3 1378 1410 19.34% 24.35% 56.31%-0.62 -9.5 2
1969-05-12 Lyn Oslo L 0-245.1 1365 1402 48.52% 24.69% 26.79%+0.21 -22.8 2
1969-05-12 @ Skeid W 2-045.1 1402 1365 26.79% 24.69% 48.52%-0.21 +22.8 4
1969-05-15 Start W 2-142.7 1333 1298 56.57% 24.33% 19.10%+0.63 +5.4 3
1969-05-15 @ Brann L 1-242.7 1298 1333 19.10% 24.33% 56.57%-0.63 -5.4 2
1969-05-15 Hodd L 1-254.4 1368 1351 54.77% 24.45% 20.78%+0.53 -12.8 2
1969-05-15 @ Viking W 2-154.4 1351 1368 20.78% 24.45% 54.77%-0.53 +12.8 5
1969-05-16 Stromsgodset L 1-848.1 1425 1420 53.50% 24.52% 21.99%+0.46 -66.0 4
1969-05-16 @ Lyn Oslo W 8-148.1 1420 1425 21.99% 24.52% 53.50%-0.46 +66.0 5
1969-05-16 Skeid W 4-032.1 1470 1342 64.50% 23.40% 12.10%+1.17 +13.7 8
1969-05-16 @ Rosenborg L 0-432.1 1342 1470 12.10% 23.40% 64.50%-1.17 -13.7 2
1969-05-16 Fredrikstad W 1-042.6 1349 1415 44.97% 24.74% 30.28%+0.05 +8.3 4
1969-05-16 @ Sarpsborg L 0-142.6 1415 1349 30.28% 24.74% 44.97%-0.05 -8.3 5
1969-05-21 Lyn Oslo D 2-260.9 1364 1359 53.37% 24.52% 22.11%+0.45 -1.3 6
1969-05-21 @ Hodd D 2-260.9 1359 1364 22.11% 24.52% 53.37%-0.45 +1.3 5
1969-05-22 Viking D 1-156.0 1406 1356 58.08% 24.21% 17.71%+0.72 -2.3 6
1969-05-22 @ Fredrikstad D 1-156.0 1356 1406 17.71% 24.21% 58.08%-0.72 +2.3 3
1969-05-22 Brann W 1-039.2 1328 1339 51.72% 24.59% 23.68%+0.37 +6.9 4
1969-05-22 @ Skeid L 0-139.2 1339 1328 23.68% 24.59% 51.72%-0.37 -6.9 3
1969-05-22 Sarpsborg L 0-340.5 1293 1357 45.12% 24.74% 30.14%+0.06 -31.2 2
1969-05-22 @ Start W 3-040.5 1357 1293 30.14% 24.74% 45.12%-0.06 +31.2 6
1969-05-22 Rosenborg D 0-057.5 1486 1484 53.14% 24.53% 22.33%+0.44 -1.9 6
1969-05-22 @ Stromsgodset D 0-057.5 1484 1486 22.33% 24.53% 53.14%-0.44 +1.9 9
1969-05-26 Fredrikstad D 1-154.6 1262 1404 34.40% 24.62% 40.98%-0.39 +0.3 3
1969-05-26 @ Start D 1-154.6 1404 1262 40.98% 24.62% 34.40%+0.39 -0.3 7
1969-05-27 Viking W 1-040.0 1332 1358 49.92% 24.66% 25.42%+0.28 +7.3 5
1969-05-27 @ Brann L 0-140.0 1358 1332 25.42% 24.66% 49.92%-0.28 -7.3 3
1969-05-27 Lyn Oslo W 3-033.7 1485 1361 64.28% 23.44% 12.28%+1.15 +10.6 11
1969-05-27 @ Rosenborg L 0-333.7 1361 1485 12.28% 23.44% 64.28%-1.15 -10.6 5
1969-05-27 Stromsgodset W 2-043.4 1388 1484 40.98% 24.74% 34.28%-0.12 +17.3 8
1969-05-27 @ Sarpsborg L 0-243.4 1484 1388 34.28% 24.74% 40.98%+0.12 -17.3 6
1969-05-27 Hodd W 4-034.4 1335 1362 49.78% 24.66% 25.56%+0.27 +26.1 6
1969-05-27 @ Skeid L 0-434.4 1362 1335 25.56% 24.66% 49.78%-0.27 -26.1 6
1969-06-08 Brann W 1-037.9 1404 1339 59.35% 24.09% 16.56%+0.80 +5.1 9
1969-06-08 @ Fredrikstad L 0-137.9 1339 1404 16.56% 24.09% 59.35%-0.80 -5.1 5
1969-06-08 Rosenborg L 1-249.9 1336 1496 32.05% 24.54% 43.41%-0.49 -8.2 6
1969-06-08 @ Hodd W 2-149.9 1496 1336 43.41% 24.54% 32.05%+0.49 +8.2 13
1969-06-08 Start W 3-029.6 1467 1262 69.46% 22.30% 8.24%+1.61 +7.2 8
1969-06-08 @ Stromsgodset L 0-329.6 1262 1467 8.24% 22.30% 69.46%-1.61 -7.2 3
1969-06-09 Sarpsborg W 3-144.7 1350 1406 46.24% 24.73% 29.03%+0.11 +13.2 7
1969-06-09 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-344.7 1406 1350 29.03% 24.73% 46.24%-0.11 -13.2 8
1969-06-09 Skeid L 1-350.7 1351 1361 51.70% 24.60% 23.71%+0.37 -20.9 3
1969-06-09 @ Viking W 3-150.7 1361 1351 23.71% 24.60% 51.70%-0.37 +20.9 8
1969-06-12 Stromsgodset L 0-148.1 1382 1474 41.50% 24.74% 33.76%-0.10 -10.6 8
1969-06-12 @ Skeid W 1-048.1 1474 1382 33.76% 24.74% 41.50%+0.10 +10.6 10
1969-06-13 Lyn Oslo W 2-145.5 1334 1363 49.56% 24.67% 25.77%+0.26 +6.9 7
1969-06-13 @ Brann L 1-245.5 1363 1334 25.77% 24.67% 49.56%-0.26 -6.9 7
1969-06-15 Fredrikstad W 2-038.4 1504 1409 62.00% 23.78% 14.22%+0.98 +8.4 15
1969-06-15 @ Rosenborg L 0-238.4 1409 1504 14.22% 23.78% 62.00%-0.98 -8.4 9
1969-06-15 Viking D 0-051.0 1393 1330 59.21% 24.10% 16.69%+0.79 -2.7 9
1969-06-15 @ Sarpsborg D 0-051.0 1330 1393 16.69% 24.10% 59.21%-0.79 +2.7 4
1969-06-15 Hodd W 3-035.8 1255 1328 43.98% 24.75% 31.28%+0.01 +23.4 5
1969-06-15 @ Start L 0-335.8 1328 1255 31.28% 24.75% 43.98%-0.01 -23.4 6
1969-06-22 Skeid L 1-352.9 1400 1372 55.94% 24.37% 19.69%+0.59 -22.5 9
1969-06-22 @ Fredrikstad W 3-152.9 1372 1400 19.69% 24.37% 55.94%-0.59 +22.5 10
1969-06-22 Sarpsborg D 0-050.4 1305 1390 42.36% 24.75% 32.89%-0.06 -0.5 7
1969-06-22 @ Hodd D 0-050.4 1390 1305 32.89% 24.75% 42.36%+0.06 +0.6 10
1969-06-22 Start L 0-246.7 1356 1278 60.54% 23.96% 15.50%+0.88 -28.1 7
1969-06-22 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-046.7 1278 1356 15.50% 23.96% 60.54%-0.88 +28.1 7
1969-06-22 Brann W 3-140.3 1484 1341 65.60% 23.20% 11.20%+1.25 +5.8 12
1969-06-22 @ Stromsgodset L 1-340.3 1341 1484 11.20% 23.20% 65.60%-1.25 -5.8 7
1969-06-23 Rosenborg W 3-151.7 1332 1513 29.45% 24.42% 46.13%-0.61 +18.9 6
1969-06-23 @ Viking L 1-351.7 1513 1332 46.13% 24.42% 29.45%+0.61 -18.9 15
1969-07-27 Brann L 0-146.6 1304 1335 49.30% 24.67% 26.03%+0.25 -12.3 7
1969-07-27 @ Hodd W 1-046.6 1335 1304 26.03% 24.67% 49.30%-0.25 +12.3 9
1969-07-28 Stromsgodset D 1-158.4 1378 1490 38.61% 24.71% 36.68%-0.22 -0.1 10
1969-07-28 @ Fredrikstad D 1-158.4 1490 1378 36.68% 24.71% 38.61%+0.22 +0.1 13
1969-07-28 Sarpsborg W 2-037.3 1494 1390 62.63% 23.69% 13.68%+1.02 +8.1 17
1969-07-28 @ Rosenborg L 0-237.3 1390 1494 13.68% 23.69% 62.63%-1.02 -8.1 10
1969-07-28 Start W 2-142.0 1394 1306 61.37% 23.86% 14.77%+0.93 +4.3 12
1969-07-28 @ Skeid L 1-242.0 1306 1394 14.77% 23.86% 61.37%-0.93 -4.3 7
1969-07-28 Lyn Oslo W 3-033.2 1351 1328 55.37% 24.41% 20.23%+0.56 +16.5 8
1969-07-28 @ Viking L 0-333.2 1328 1351 20.23% 24.41% 55.37%-0.56 -16.5 7
1969-08-06 Rosenborg L 0-145.2 1347 1502 32.79% 24.57% 42.65%-0.46 -8.9 9
1969-08-06 @ Brann W 1-045.2 1502 1347 42.65% 24.57% 32.79%+0.46 +8.9 19
1969-08-06 Fredrikstad L 0-440.2 1312 1378 44.91% 24.74% 30.35%+0.05 -40.6 7
1969-08-06 @ Lyn Oslo W 4-040.2 1378 1312 30.35% 24.74% 44.91%-0.05 +40.6 12
1969-08-06 Skeid L 0-246.1 1382 1398 51.08% 24.62% 24.30%+0.34 -23.9 10
1969-08-06 @ Sarpsborg W 2-046.1 1398 1382 24.30% 24.62% 51.08%-0.34 +23.9 14
1969-08-06 Viking W 1-041.2 1302 1368 44.95% 24.74% 30.30%+0.05 +8.3 9
1969-08-06 @ Start L 0-141.2 1368 1302 30.30% 24.74% 44.95%-0.05 -8.3 8
1969-08-06 Hodd W 2-141.0 1490 1292 69.11% 22.40% 8.49%+1.57 +2.6 15
1969-08-06 @ Stromsgodset L 1-241.0 1292 1490 8.49% 22.40% 69.11%-1.57 -2.6 7
1969-08-10 Hodd W 5-030.4 1418 1289 64.58% 23.39% 12.03%+1.17 +16.8 14
1969-08-10 @ Fredrikstad L 0-530.4 1289 1418 12.03% 23.39% 64.58%-1.17 -16.8 7
1969-08-10 Start W 2-033.5 1511 1310 69.22% 22.37% 8.42%+1.58 +5.1 21
1969-08-10 @ Rosenborg L 0-233.5 1310 1511 8.42% 22.37% 69.22%-1.58 -5.1 9
1969-08-10 Stromsgodset D 2-263.6 1359 1493 35.62% 24.65% 39.72%-0.34 +0.1 9
1969-08-10 @ Viking D 2-263.6 1493 1359 39.72% 24.65% 35.62%+0.34 -0.2 16
1969-08-11 Sarpsborg W 2-036.8 1339 1358 50.65% 24.63% 24.72%+0.31 +13.4 11
1969-08-11 @ Brann L 0-236.8 1358 1339 24.72% 24.63% 50.65%-0.31 -13.4 10
1969-08-11 Skeid L 1-344.9 1271 1422 33.19% 24.58% 42.23%-0.44 -14.6 7
1969-08-11 @ Lyn Oslo W 3-144.9 1422 1271 42.23% 24.58% 33.19%+0.44 +14.6 16
1969-08-17 Viking L 1-249.7 1272 1360 42.11% 24.75% 33.14%-0.07 -10.1 7
1969-08-17 @ Hodd W 2-149.7 1360 1272 33.14% 24.75% 42.11%+0.07 +10.1 11
1969-08-17 Brann D 1-154.4 1305 1352 47.38% 24.71% 27.91%+0.16 -1.0 10
1969-08-17 @ Start D 1-154.4 1352 1305 27.91% 24.71% 47.38%-0.16 +1.0 12
1969-08-18 Sarpsborg L 0-152.0 1435 1345 61.55% 23.84% 14.61%+0.95 -15.1 14
1969-08-18 @ Fredrikstad W 1-052.0 1345 1435 14.61% 23.84% 61.55%-0.95 +15.2 12
1969-08-18 Rosenborg W 2-045.4 1437 1516 43.23% 24.75% 32.02%-0.03 +16.4 18
1969-08-18 @ Skeid L 0-245.4 1516 1437 32.02% 24.75% 43.23%+0.03 -16.4 21
1969-08-18 Lyn Oslo D 1-156.5 1493 1256 71.20% 21.77% 7.03%+1.79 -3.9 17
1969-08-18 @ Stromsgodset D 1-156.5 1256 1493 7.03% 21.77% 71.20%-1.79 +3.9 8
1969-08-30 Fredrikstad D 0-052.0 1370 1420 46.95% 24.72% 28.33%+0.14 -1.1 12
1969-08-30 @ Viking D 0-052.0 1420 1370 28.33% 24.72% 46.95%-0.14 +1.1 15
1969-08-31 Hodd W 5-136.2 1260 1262 52.69% 24.55% 22.76%+0.42 +19.8 10
1969-08-31 @ Lyn Oslo L 1-536.2 1262 1260 22.76% 24.55% 52.69%-0.42 -19.8 7
1969-08-31 Stromsgodset W 3-149.1 1499 1489 54.04% 24.49% 21.47%+0.49 +10.4 23
1969-08-31 @ Rosenborg L 1-349.1 1489 1499 21.47% 24.49% 54.04%-0.49 -10.3 17
1969-08-31 Start W 3-032.1 1360 1304 58.58% 24.16% 17.26%+0.75 +14.4 14
1969-08-31 @ Sarpsborg L 0-332.1 1304 1360 17.26% 24.16% 58.58%-0.75 -14.4 10
1969-09-01 Skeid D 2-262.4 1353 1453 40.30% 24.73% 34.96%-0.15 -0.2 13
1969-09-01 @ Brann D 2-262.4 1453 1353 34.96% 24.73% 40.30%+0.15 +0.2 19
1969-09-13 Sarpsborg D 1-155.6 1369 1375 52.23% 24.57% 23.20%+0.39 -1.6 13
1969-09-13 @ Viking D 1-155.6 1375 1369 23.20% 24.57% 52.23%-0.39 +1.6 15
1969-09-14 Rosenborg W 4-254.6 1421 1510 41.90% 24.75% 33.35%-0.08 +13.1 17
1969-09-14 @ Fredrikstad L 2-454.6 1510 1421 33.35% 24.75% 41.90%+0.08 -13.1 23
1969-09-14 Start W 5-137.8 1242 1290 47.33% 24.71% 27.96%+0.16 +23.4 9
1969-09-14 @ Hodd L 1-537.8 1290 1242 27.96% 24.71% 47.33%-0.16 -23.4 10
1969-09-14 Brann D 1-154.2 1280 1353 44.05% 24.75% 31.20%+0.01 -0.7 11
1969-09-14 @ Lyn Oslo D 1-154.2 1353 1280 31.20% 24.75% 44.05%-0.01 +0.7 14
1969-09-14 Skeid W 2-149.3 1478 1454 55.55% 24.40% 20.06%+0.57 +5.6 19
1969-09-14 @ Stromsgodset L 1-249.3 1454 1478 20.06% 24.40% 55.55%-0.57 -5.6 19
1969-09-28 Fredrikstad D 1-156.4 1354 1434 42.99% 24.75% 32.26%-0.04 -0.6 15
1969-09-28 @ Brann D 1-156.4 1434 1354 32.26% 24.75% 42.99%+0.04 +0.6 18
1969-09-28 Hodd W 2-140.1 1497 1266 70.91% 21.87% 7.23%+1.76 +2.2 25
1969-09-28 @ Rosenborg L 1-240.1 1266 1497 7.23% 21.87% 70.91%-1.76 -2.2 9
1969-09-28 Lyn Oslo D 2-260.3 1376 1279 62.10% 23.77% 14.14%+0.99 -2.1 16
1969-09-28 @ Sarpsborg D 2-260.3 1279 1376 14.14% 23.77% 62.10%-0.99 +2.1 12
1969-09-28 Viking L 0-152.6 1448 1367 60.79% 23.93% 15.28%+0.90 -15.0 19
1969-09-28 @ Skeid W 1-052.6 1367 1448 15.28% 23.93% 60.79%-0.90 +15.0 15
1969-09-28 Stromsgodset L 3-453.7 1266 1484 25.02% 24.14% 50.84%-0.83 -6.2 10
1969-09-28 @ Start W 4-353.7 1484 1266 50.84% 24.14% 25.02%+0.83 +6.2 21
1969-10-12 Start W 3-137.3 1435 1260 67.66% 22.76% 9.58%+1.43 +5.0 20
1969-10-12 @ Fredrikstad L 1-337.3 1260 1435 9.58% 22.76% 67.66%-1.43 -5.0 10
1969-10-12 Skeid D 3-364.5 1264 1433 30.83% 24.49% 44.68%-0.55 +0.5 10
1969-10-12 @ Hodd D 3-364.5 1433 1264 44.68% 24.49% 30.83%+0.55 -0.5 20
1969-10-12 Rosenborg L 1-246.5 1282 1499 25.09% 24.14% 50.77%-0.82 -6.7 12
1969-10-12 @ Lyn Oslo W 2-146.5 1499 1282 50.77% 24.14% 25.09%+0.82 +6.7 27
1969-10-12 Sarpsborg D 2-264.3 1490 1374 63.63% 23.54% 12.83%+1.10 -2.2 22
1969-10-12 @ Stromsgodset D 2-264.3 1374 1490 12.83% 23.54% 63.63%-1.10 +2.2 17
1969-10-12 Brann D 0-051.1 1382 1353 55.95% 24.37% 19.68%+0.60 -2.3 16
1969-10-12 @ Viking D 0-051.1 1353 1382 19.68% 24.37% 55.95%-0.60 +2.3 16
1969-10-19 Stromsgodset W 2-152.5 1355 1488 35.72% 24.66% 39.63%-0.34 +9.7 18
1969-10-19 @ Brann L 1-252.5 1488 1355 39.63% 24.66% 35.72%+0.34 -9.7 22
1969-10-19 Viking L 0-155.4 1506 1380 64.34% 23.43% 12.23%+1.15 -15.8 27
1969-10-19 @ Rosenborg W 1-055.4 1380 1506 12.23% 23.43% 64.34%-1.15 +15.8 18
1969-10-19 Hodd L 1-353.1 1376 1264 63.32% 23.59% 13.08%+1.08 -25.4 17
1969-10-19 @ Sarpsborg W 3-153.1 1264 1376 13.08% 23.59% 63.32%-1.08 +25.4 12
1969-10-19 Fredrikstad L 0-151.7 1433 1440 52.09% 24.58% 23.33%+0.39 -12.9 20
1969-10-19 @ Skeid W 1-051.7 1440 1433 23.33% 24.58% 52.09%-0.39 +12.9 22
1969-10-19 Lyn Oslo W 2-035.5 1255 1275 50.66% 24.63% 24.71%+0.32 +13.4 12
1969-10-19 @ Start L 0-235.5 1275 1255 24.71% 24.63% 50.66%-0.32 -13.4 12

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1969-10-19 12.23% Viking 1380 1 @ Rosenborg 1506 0
2 1969-10-19 13.08% Hodd 1264 3 @ Sarpsborg 1376 1
3 1969-08-18 14.61% Sarpsborg 1345 1 @ Fredrikstad 1435 0
4 1969-09-28 15.28% Viking 1367 1 @ Skeid 1448 0
5 1969-06-22 15.50% Start 1278 2 @ Lyn Oslo 1356 0
6 1969-06-22 19.69% Skeid 1372 3 @ Fredrikstad 1400 1
7 1969-05-15 20.78% Hodd 1351 2 @ Viking 1368 1
8 1969-05-16 21.99% Stromsgodset 1420 8 @ Lyn Oslo 1425 1
9 1969-10-19 23.33% Fredrikstad 1440 1 @ Skeid 1433 0
10 1969-06-09 23.71% Skeid 1361 3 @ Viking 1351 1
11 1969-08-06 24.30% Skeid 1398 2 @ Sarpsborg 1382 0
12 1969-05-11 25.08% Fredrikstad 1394 3 @ Hodd 1371 1
13 1969-07-27 26.03% Brann 1335 1 @ Hodd 1304 0
14 1969-05-12 26.79% Lyn Oslo 1402 2 @ Skeid 1365 0
15 1969-04-27 28.73% Rosenborg 1413 1 @ Sarpsborg 1359 0
16 1969-06-23 29.45% @ Viking 1332 3 Rosenborg 1513 1
17 1969-05-22 30.14% Sarpsborg 1357 3 @ Start 1293 0
18 1969-08-06 30.35% Fredrikstad 1378 4 @ Lyn Oslo 1312 0
19 1969-08-17 33.14% Viking 1360 2 @ Hodd 1272 1
20 1969-06-12 33.76% Stromsgodset 1474 1 @ Skeid 1382 0
21 1969-10-19 35.72% @ Brann 1355 2 Stromsgodset 1488 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1969-05-16 66.03 Stromsgodset 8 1420 21.99% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1425 53.50% 24.52%
2 1969-08-06 40.56 Fredrikstad 4 1378 30.35% @ Lyn Oslo 0 1312 44.91% 24.74%
3 1969-05-22 31.17 Sarpsborg 3 1357 30.14% @ Start 0 1293 45.12% 24.74%
4 1969-06-22 28.11 Start 2 1278 15.50% @ Lyn Oslo 0 1356 60.54% 23.96%
5 1969-05-27 26.12 @ Skeid 4 1335 49.78% Hodd 0 1362 25.56% 24.66%
6 1969-10-19 25.44 Hodd 3 1264 13.08% @ Sarpsborg 1 1376 63.32% 23.59%
7 1969-08-06 23.92 Skeid 2 1398 24.30% @ Sarpsborg 0 1382 51.08% 24.62%
8 1969-05-04 23.44 @ Rosenborg 5 1424 58.35% Brann 0 1371 17.46% 24.18%
9 1969-06-15 23.43 @ Start 3 1255 43.98% Hodd 0 1328 31.28% 24.75%
10 1969-09-14 23.37 @ Hodd 5 1242 47.33% Start 1 1290 27.96% 24.71%
11 1969-05-12 22.85 Lyn Oslo 2 1402 26.79% @ Skeid 0 1365 48.52% 24.69%
12 1969-06-22 22.55 Skeid 3 1372 19.69% @ Fredrikstad 1 1400 55.94% 24.37%
13 1969-05-11 22.20 Rosenborg 4 1448 38.83% @ Start 1 1320 36.49% 24.67%
14 1969-06-09 20.94 Skeid 3 1361 23.71% @ Viking 1 1351 51.70% 24.60%
15 1969-05-11 20.41 Fredrikstad 3 1394 25.08% @ Hodd 1 1371 50.27% 24.65%
16 1969-08-31 19.81 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1260 52.69% Hodd 1 1262 22.76% 24.55%
17 1969-06-23 18.89 @ Viking 3 1332 29.45% Rosenborg 1 1513 46.13% 24.42%
18 1969-05-27 17.30 @ Sarpsborg 2 1388 40.98% Stromsgodset 0 1484 34.28% 24.74%
19 1969-08-10 16.78 @ Fredrikstad 5 1418 64.58% Hodd 0 1289 12.03% 23.39%
20 1969-07-28 16.50 @ Viking 3 1351 55.37% Lyn Oslo 0 1328 20.23% 24.41%
21 1969-08-18 16.43 @ Skeid 2 1437 43.23% Rosenborg 0 1516 32.02% 24.75%
22 1969-10-19 15.84 Viking 1 1380 12.23% @ Rosenborg 0 1506 64.34% 23.43%
23 1969-08-18 15.15 Sarpsborg 1 1345 14.61% @ Fredrikstad 0 1435 61.55% 23.84%
24 1969-09-28 14.96 Viking 1 1367 15.28% @ Skeid 0 1448 60.79% 23.93%
25 1969-08-11 14.60 Skeid 3 1422 42.23% @ Lyn Oslo 1 1271 33.19% 24.58%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1969-10-12 64.5 @ Hodd 3 1264 30.83% Skeid 3 1433 44.68% 24.49%
2 1969-10-12 64.3 @ Stromsgodset 2 1490 63.63% Sarpsborg 2 1374 12.83% 23.54%
3 1969-08-10 63.6 @ Viking 2 1359 35.62% Stromsgodset 2 1493 39.72% 24.65%
4 1969-09-01 62.4 @ Brann 2 1353 40.30% Skeid 2 1453 34.96% 24.73%
5 1969-04-27 61.1 @ Brann 2 1372 53.99% Hodd 2 1362 21.52% 24.49%
6 1969-05-21 60.9 @ Hodd 2 1364 53.37% Lyn Oslo 2 1359 22.11% 24.52%
7 1969-09-28 60.3 @ Sarpsborg 2 1376 62.10% Lyn Oslo 2 1279 14.14% 23.77%
8 1969-07-28 58.4 @ Fredrikstad 1 1378 38.61% Stromsgodset 1 1490 36.68% 24.71%
9 1969-05-22 57.5 @ Stromsgodset 0 1486 53.14% Rosenborg 0 1484 22.33% 24.53%
10 1969-08-18 56.5 @ Stromsgodset 1 1493 71.20% Lyn Oslo 1 1256 7.03% 21.77%
11 1969-09-28 56.4 @ Brann 1 1354 42.99% Fredrikstad 1 1434 32.26% 24.75%
12 1969-05-22 56.0 @ Fredrikstad 1 1406 58.08% Viking 1 1356 17.71% 24.21%
13 1969-09-13 55.6 @ Viking 1 1369 52.23% Sarpsborg 1 1375 23.20% 24.57%
14 1969-10-19 55.4 Viking 1 1380 12.23% @ Rosenborg 0 1506 64.34% 23.43%
15 1969-05-26 54.6 @ Start 1 1262 34.40% Fredrikstad 1 1404 40.98% 24.62%
16 1969-09-14 54.6 @ Fredrikstad 4 1421 41.90% Rosenborg 2 1510 33.35% 24.75%
17 1969-05-15 54.4 Hodd 2 1351 20.78% @ Viking 1 1368 54.77% 24.45%
18 1969-08-17 54.4 @ Start 1 1305 47.38% Brann 1 1352 27.91% 24.71%
19 1969-09-14 54.2 @ Lyn Oslo 1 1280 44.05% Brann 1 1353 31.20% 24.75%
20 1969-09-28 53.7 Stromsgodset 4 1484 50.84% @ Start 3 1266 25.02% 24.14%
21 1969-10-19 53.1 Hodd 3 1264 13.08% @ Sarpsborg 1 1376 63.32% 23.59%
22 1969-06-22 52.9 Skeid 3 1372 19.69% @ Fredrikstad 1 1400 55.94% 24.37%
23 1969-09-28 52.6 Viking 1 1367 15.28% @ Skeid 0 1448 60.79% 23.93%
24 1969-10-19 52.5 @ Brann 2 1355 35.72% Stromsgodset 1 1488 39.63% 24.66%
25 1969-04-27 52.4 @ Stromsgodset 0 1421 57.37% Fredrikstad 0 1378 18.36% 24.26%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1969-06-08 29.6 @ Stromsgodset 3 1467 69.46% Start 0 1262 8.24% 22.30%
2 1969-08-10 30.4 @ Fredrikstad 5 1418 64.58% Hodd 0 1289 12.03% 23.39%
3 1969-05-16 32.1 @ Rosenborg 4 1470 64.50% Skeid 0 1342 12.10% 23.40%
4 1969-08-31 32.1 @ Sarpsborg 3 1360 58.58% Start 0 1304 17.26% 24.16%
5 1969-07-28 33.2 @ Viking 3 1351 55.37% Lyn Oslo 0 1328 20.23% 24.41%
6 1969-08-10 33.5 @ Rosenborg 2 1511 69.22% Start 0 1310 8.42% 22.37%
7 1969-05-27 33.7 @ Rosenborg 3 1485 64.28% Lyn Oslo 0 1361 12.28% 23.44%
8 1969-05-04 33.8 @ Rosenborg 5 1424 58.35% Brann 0 1371 17.46% 24.18%
9 1969-05-27 34.4 @ Skeid 4 1335 49.78% Hodd 0 1362 25.56% 24.66%
10 1969-10-19 35.5 @ Start 2 1255 50.66% Lyn Oslo 0 1275 24.71% 24.63%
11 1969-06-15 35.8 @ Start 3 1255 43.98% Hodd 0 1328 31.28% 24.75%
12 1969-05-04 36.0 @ Skeid 2 1353 53.47% Sarpsborg 0 1347 22.01% 24.52%
13 1969-08-31 36.2 @ Lyn Oslo 5 1260 52.69% Hodd 1 1262 22.76% 24.55%
14 1969-08-11 36.8 @ Brann 2 1339 50.65% Sarpsborg 0 1358 24.72% 24.63%
15 1969-07-28 37.3 @ Rosenborg 2 1494 62.63% Sarpsborg 0 1390 13.68% 23.69%
16 1969-10-12 37.3 @ Fredrikstad 3 1435 67.66% Start 1 1260 9.58% 22.76%
17 1969-05-04 37.7 @ Viking 1 1372 57.67% Start 0 1326 18.09% 24.24%
18 1969-09-14 37.8 @ Hodd 5 1242 47.33% Start 1 1290 27.96% 24.71%
19 1969-06-08 37.9 @ Fredrikstad 1 1404 59.35% Brann 0 1339 16.56% 24.09%
20 1969-06-15 38.4 @ Rosenborg 2 1504 62.00% Fredrikstad 0 1409 14.22% 23.78%
21 1969-05-04 39.1 @ Fredrikstad 2 1380 48.64% Lyn Oslo 0 1417 26.67% 24.69%
22 1969-05-22 39.2 @ Skeid 1 1328 51.72% Brann 0 1339 23.68% 24.59%
23 1969-04-27 39.7 @ Lyn Oslo 1 1411 56.34% Viking 0 1378 19.32% 24.34%
24 1969-05-27 40.0 @ Brann 1 1332 49.92% Viking 0 1358 25.42% 24.66%
25 1969-09-28 40.1 @ Rosenborg 2 1497 70.91% Hodd 1 1266 7.23% 21.87%