1969 First Division Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Rosenborg

4.85 points above expected

27 points · 22.15 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lyn Oslo

4.67 points below expected

12 points · 16.67 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Rosenborg	18	13	1	4	27	36	15	+21	22.1	+4.85
2	Fredrikstad	18	8	6	4	22	28	15	+13	19.0	+3.00
3	Stromsgodset	18	8	6	4	22	34	22	+12	21.4	+0.60
4	Skeid	18	9	2	7	20	29	22	+7	18.4	+1.58
5	Viking	18	6	6	6	18	18	17	+1	17.1	+0.92
6	Brann	18	6	6	6	18	20	26	-6	16.8	+1.23
7	Sarpsborg	18	6	5	7	17	22	22	0	18.0	-0.96
8	Hodd	18	4	4	10	12	24	39	-15	15.6	-3.60
9	Start	18	5	2	11	12	20	35	-15	14.9	-2.94
10	Lyn Oslo	18	4	4	10	12	21	39	-18	16.7	-4.67

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Rosenborg	1486	27	22.15	+4.85	94.7%	7	17	20	22	24	28	33
Stromsgodset	1473	22	21.40	+0.60	62.2%	7	16	19	21	24	27	33
Fredrikstad	1447	22	19.00	+3.00	84.9%	7	13	17	19	21	25	31
Skeid	1416	20	18.42	+1.58	72.2%	5	13	16	18	21	24	32
Viking	1395	18	17.08	+0.92	65.8%	5	11	15	17	19	23	32
Brann	1368	18	16.77	+1.23	69.1%	3	11	14	17	19	23	31
Sarpsborg	1358	17	17.96	-0.96	45.1%	6	13	16	18	20	24	29
Hodd	1302	12	15.60	-3.60	18.8%	3	10	13	16	18	21	28
Start	1284	12	14.94	-2.94	24.1%	3	9	13	15	17	20	27
Lyn Oslo	1284	12	16.67	-4.67	11.3%	5	11	14	17	19	22	30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRA	FRE	HOD	LO	ROS	SAR	SKE	STA	STR	VIK
Brann	—	0-1-1 2.33	1-1-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.85	0-0-2 2.06	1-0-1 2.73	0-1-1 2.47	1-1-0 2.99	1-0-1 1.97	1-1-0 2.60
Fredrikstad	1-1-0 3.18	—	2-0-0 3.15	2-0-0 2.81	1-0-1 2.22	0-0-2 3.19	1-0-1 2.87	1-1-0 3.62	0-2-0 2.26	0-2-0 3.04
Hodd	0-1-1 2.63	0-0-2 2.38	—	0-1-1 2.72	0-0-2 1.73	1-1-0 2.23	0-1-1 2.25	1-0-1 2.84	1-0-1 2.15	1-0-1 2.42
Lyn Oslo	0-1-1 2.65	0-0-2 2.69	1-1-0 2.79	—	0-0-2 1.73	1-1-0 2.40	1-0-1 2.41	0-0-2 3.05	0-1-1 2.32	1-0-1 2.81
Rosenborg	2-0-0 3.46	1-0-1 3.30	2-0-0 3.82	2-0-0 3.80	—	2-0-0 3.22	1-0-1 3.35	2-0-0 3.64	1-1-0 2.80	0-0-2 3.70
Sarpsborg	1-0-1 2.77	2-0-0 2.33	0-1-1 3.29	0-1-1 3.12	0-0-2 2.30	—	0-0-2 2.69	2-0-0 3.09	1-1-0 2.15	0-2-0 2.92
Skeid	1-1-0 3.04	1-0-1 2.64	1-1-0 3.25	1-0-1 3.09	1-0-1 2.18	2-0-0 2.82	—	1-0-1 3.10	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 2.98
Start	0-1-1 2.52	0-1-1 1.91	1-0-1 2.66	2-0-0 2.47	0-0-2 1.90	0-0-2 2.42	1-0-1 2.42	—	0-0-2 1.58	1-0-1 2.43
Stromsgodset	1-0-1 3.56	0-2-0 3.25	1-0-1 3.39	1-1-0 3.24	0-1-1 2.71	0-1-1 3.37	2-0-0 3.15	2-0-0 3.97	—	1-1-0 3.31
Viking	0-1-1 2.91	0-2-0 2.47	1-0-1 3.09	1-0-1 2.70	2-0-0 1.83	0-2-0 2.60	1-0-1 2.54	1-0-1 3.08	0-1-1 2.20	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.67%	8.89%	6.67%	3.33%	1.67%	1.11%	28.33%
1	8.89%	8.89%	6.67%	6.11%	0.56%	1.67%	32.78%
2	6.67%	6.67%	6.67%	—	0.56%	0.56%	21.11%
3	3.33%	6.11%	—	1.11%	0.56%	—	11.11%
4	1.67%	0.56%	0.56%	0.56%	—	—	3.33%
5+	1.11%	1.67%	0.56%	—	—	—	3.33%
Total	28.33%	32.78%	21.11%	11.11%	3.33%	3.33%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.40
Mean allowed	1.40
StdDev scored	1.34
StdDev allowed	1.34
Mean total goals/game	2.80
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.132
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	5.56%	27.78%
1	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	38.89%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	50.00%	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	100%

Brann — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.11
Mean allowed	1.44
StdDev scored	0.83
StdDev allowed	1.50
Mean total goals/game	2.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.052
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	11.11%	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	38.89%	44.44%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Fredrikstad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.56
Mean allowed	0.83
StdDev scored	1.58
StdDev allowed	0.86
Mean total goals/game	2.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.101
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	27.78%
1	5.56%	—	22.22%	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	33.33%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	100%

Hodd — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.33
StdDev allowed	1.47
Mean total goals/game	3.50
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.272
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	22.22%	38.89%	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Lyn Oslo — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.29
StdDev allowed	1.79
Mean total goals/game	3.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.317
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	50.00%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Rosenborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	0.83
StdDev scored	1.41
StdDev allowed	1.15
Mean total goals/game	2.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.217
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%	—	—	—	38.89%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	38.89%	11.11%	38.89%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Sarpsborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.22
Mean allowed	1.22
StdDev scored	1.40
StdDev allowed	1.11
Mean total goals/game	2.44
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.071
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	38.89%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Skeid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.61
Mean allowed	1.22
StdDev scored	1.29
StdDev allowed	1.11
Mean total goals/game	2.83
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.305
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	27.78%
1	5.56%	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	44.44%
2	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	22.22%	16.67%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	100%

Start — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.11
Mean allowed	1.94
StdDev scored	0.96
StdDev allowed	1.55
Mean total goals/game	3.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.271
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	—	—	5.56%	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	44.44%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Stromsgodset — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.89
Mean allowed	1.22
StdDev scored	1.94
StdDev allowed	0.94
Mean total goals/game	3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.111
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	44.44%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	38.89%	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Viking — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.00
Mean allowed	0.94
StdDev scored	0.97
StdDev allowed	1.00
Mean total goals/game	1.94
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.121
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Rosenborg	27	22.1	+4.85
2	Fredrikstad	22	19.0	+3.00
3	Skeid	20	18.4	+1.58
4	Brann	18	16.8	+1.23
5	Viking	18	17.1	+0.92

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Lyn Oslo	12	16.7	-4.67
2	Hodd	12	15.6	-3.60
3	Start	12	14.9	-2.94
4	Sarpsborg	17	18.0	-0.96
5	Stromsgodset	22	21.4	+0.60

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Skeid	5	Jun 22 – Aug 18	1 in 208
2	Sarpsborg	4	May 11 – May 27	1 in 35
3	Rosenborg	4	Apr 27 – May 16	1 in 25
4	Start	2	Jun 15 – Jun 22	1 in 14
5	Fredrikstad	2	May 4 – May 11	1 in 8

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lyn Oslo	5	Jun 13 – Aug 11	1 in 214
2	Hodd	5	Jul 27 – Aug 31	1 in 53
3	Start	4	May 4 – May 22	1 in 30
4	Sarpsborg	3	Jul 28 – Aug 11	1 in 13
5	Viking	2	May 11 – May 15	1 in 9

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Viking	7	Aug 10 – Oct 19	1 in 44
2	Brann	7	Aug 11 – Oct 19	1 in 37
3	Skeid	6	Jun 22 – Sep 1	1 in 22
4	Sarpsborg	5	Aug 18 – Oct 12	1 in 21
5	Rosenborg	8	Apr 27 – Jun 15	1 in 19

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hodd	10	May 21 – Aug 31	1 in 62
2	Skeid	5	Sep 1 – Oct 19	1 in 16
3	Sarpsborg	6	Jun 9 – Aug 11	1 in 15
4	Lyn Oslo	6	Jun 13 – Aug 18	1 in 14
5	Viking	6	May 11 – Jun 15	1 in 11

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Rosenborg	40.45%	21.39%	14.13%	9.16%	5.63%	3.98%	2.75%	1.41%	0.76%	0.34%
Fredrikstad	9.96%	14.14%	15.52%	13.54%	12.64%	10.79%	8.62%	7.13%	4.82%	2.84%
Stromsgodset	27.25%	24.24%	15.62%	11.26%	7.75%	5.42%	3.90%	2.41%	1.52%	0.63%
Skeid	7.12%	11.09%	13.68%	14.29%	12.35%	11.00%	10.31%	8.70%	6.56%	4.90%
Viking	3.16%	6.08%	8.84%	10.82%	12.39%	12.22%	13.00%	12.94%	11.73%	8.82%
Brann	2.81%	5.17%	7.41%	9.06%	11.24%	12.17%	12.35%	14.18%	14.16%	11.45%
Sarpsborg	4.90%	8.87%	10.94%	12.45%	12.64%	13.43%	11.64%	10.61%	9.04%	5.48%
Hodd	1.36%	2.45%	4.60%	5.68%	8.35%	10.30%	12.56%	14.24%	18.00%	22.46%
Start	0.74%	1.78%	3.05%	5.09%	6.57%	9.19%	12.20%	14.05%	19.15%	28.18%
Lyn Oslo	2.25%	4.79%	6.21%	8.65%	10.44%	11.50%	12.67%	14.33%	14.26%	14.90%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Rosenborg	98.9%	1.1%
Stromsgodset	97.9%	2.1%
Fredrikstad	92.3%	7.7%
Skeid	88.5%	11.5%
Sarpsborg	85.5%	14.5%
Viking	79.5%	20.5%
Brann	74.4%	25.6%
Lyn Oslo	70.8%	29.2%
Hodd	59.5%	40.5%
Start	52.7%	47.3%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1969-04-27	Hodd	D 2-2	1375	1364	54.1%	24.4%	21.5%	-1.1	1
1969-04-27	@ Brann	D 2-2	1364	1375	21.5%	24.4%	54.1%	+1.1	1
1969-04-27	Viking	W 1-0	1414	1381	56.5%	24.1%	19.4%	+4.8	3
1969-04-27	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	1381	1414	19.4%	24.1%	56.5%	-4.8	0
1969-04-27	Rosenborg	L 0-1	1363	1416	46.5%	24.9%	28.6%	-9.7	0
1969-04-27	@ Sarpsborg	W 1-0	1416	1363	28.6%	24.9%	46.5%	+9.7	3
1969-04-27	Skeid	W 2-1	1331	1366	48.8%	24.8%	26.4%	+5.9	3
1969-04-27	@ Start	L 1-2	1366	1331	26.4%	24.8%	48.8%	-5.9	0
1969-04-27	Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1422	1382	57.2%	24.0%	18.8%	-2.0	1
1969-04-27	@ Stromsgodset	D 0-0	1382	1422	18.8%	24.0%	57.2%	+2.0	1
1969-05-04	Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	1384	1419	48.8%	24.8%	26.4%	+11.8	4
1969-05-04	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-2	1419	1384	26.4%	24.8%	48.8%	-11.8	3
1969-05-04	Stromsgodset	W 1-0	1365	1420	46.3%	24.9%	28.8%	+6.7	4
1969-05-04	@ Hodd	L 0-1	1420	1365	28.8%	24.9%	46.3%	-6.7	1
1969-05-04	Brann	W 5-0	1426	1374	58.4%	23.8%	17.8%	+19.6	6
1969-05-04	@ Rosenborg	L 0-5	1374	1426	17.8%	23.8%	58.4%	-19.6	1
1969-05-04	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1360	1353	53.7%	24.4%	21.9%	+10.0	3
1969-05-04	@ Skeid	L 0-2	1353	1360	21.9%	24.4%	53.7%	-10.0	0
1969-05-04	Start	W 1-0	1376	1337	57.1%	24.0%	18.8%	+4.7	3
1969-05-04	@ Viking	L 0-1	1337	1376	18.8%	24.0%	57.1%	-4.7	3
1969-05-11	Fredrikstad	L 1-3	1372	1395	50.1%	24.7%	25.1%	-16.9	4
1969-05-11	@ Hodd	W 3-1	1395	1372	25.1%	24.7%	50.1%	+16.9	7
1969-05-11	Brann	W 5-2	1343	1354	51.6%	24.6%	23.8%	+11.4	3
1969-05-11	@ Sarpsborg	L 2-5	1354	1343	23.8%	24.6%	51.6%	-11.4	1
1969-05-11	Rosenborg	L 1-4	1332	1445	38.5%	24.9%	36.7%	-19.2	3
1969-05-11	@ Start	W 4-1	1445	1332	36.7%	24.9%	38.5%	+19.2	9
1969-05-11	Viking	W 3-1	1413	1381	56.4%	24.1%	19.5%	+7.9	4
1969-05-11	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-3	1381	1413	19.5%	24.1%	56.4%	-7.9	3
1969-05-12	Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	1370	1407	48.5%	24.8%	26.7%	-19.0	3
1969-05-12	@ Skeid	W 2-0	1407	1370	26.7%	24.8%	48.5%	+19.0	6
1969-05-15	Start	W 2-1	1343	1313	56.1%	24.2%	19.7%	+4.6	4
1969-05-15	@ Brann	L 1-2	1313	1343	19.7%	24.2%	56.1%	-4.6	3
1969-05-15	Hodd	L 1-2	1373	1355	54.9%	24.3%	20.7%	-10.6	3
1969-05-15	@ Viking	W 2-1	1355	1373	20.7%	24.3%	54.9%	+10.6	7
1969-05-16	Stromsgodset	L 1-8	1426	1421	53.5%	24.5%	22.1%	-54.8	6
1969-05-16	@ Lyn Oslo	W 8-1	1421	1426	22.1%	24.5%	53.5%	+54.8	7
1969-05-16	Skeid	W 4-0	1464	1351	64.0%	22.6%	13.3%	+12.1	12
1969-05-16	@ Rosenborg	L 0-4	1351	1464	13.3%	22.6%	64.0%	-12.2	3
1969-05-16	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1354	1412	45.9%	24.9%	29.2%	+6.8	6
1969-05-16	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1412	1354	29.2%	24.9%	45.9%	-6.8	7
1969-05-21	Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	1365	1371	52.2%	24.6%	23.2%	-1.0	8
1969-05-21	@ Hodd	D 2-2	1371	1365	23.2%	24.6%	52.2%	+1.0	7
1969-05-22	Viking	D 1-1	1406	1363	57.5%	24.0%	18.5%	-1.8	8
1969-05-22	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1363	1406	18.5%	24.0%	57.5%	+1.8	4
1969-05-22	Brann	W 1-0	1339	1347	52.0%	24.6%	23.4%	+5.6	6
1969-05-22	@ Skeid	L 0-1	1347	1339	23.4%	24.6%	52.0%	-5.7	4
1969-05-22	Sarpsborg	L 0-3	1309	1361	46.6%	24.9%	28.5%	-26.6	3
1969-05-22	@ Start	W 3-0	1361	1309	28.5%	24.9%	46.6%	+26.6	9
1969-05-22	Rosenborg	D 0-0	1476	1477	52.8%	24.5%	22.7%	-1.6	8
1969-05-22	@ Stromsgodset	D 0-0	1477	1476	22.7%	24.5%	52.8%	+1.6	13
1969-05-26	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1282	1404	37.2%	24.8%	38.0%	+0.0	4
1969-05-26	@ Start	D 1-1	1404	1282	38.0%	24.8%	37.2%	-0.0	9
1969-05-27	Viking	W 1-0	1342	1364	50.2%	24.7%	25.0%	+6.0	7
1969-05-27	@ Brann	L 0-1	1364	1342	25.0%	24.7%	50.2%	-6.0	4
1969-05-27	Lyn Oslo	W 3-0	1478	1372	63.4%	22.8%	13.8%	+9.6	16
1969-05-27	@ Rosenborg	L 0-3	1372	1478	13.8%	22.8%	63.4%	-9.6	7
1969-05-27	Stromsgodset	W 2-0	1388	1474	42.1%	24.9%	33.0%	+14.0	12
1969-05-27	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-2	1474	1388	33.0%	24.9%	42.1%	-14.0	8
1969-05-27	Hodd	W 4-0	1345	1364	50.6%	24.7%	24.7%	+21.1	9
1969-05-27	@ Skeid	L 0-4	1364	1345	24.7%	24.7%	50.6%	-21.1	8
1969-06-08	Brann	W 1-0	1404	1348	58.8%	23.8%	17.4%	+4.4	12
1969-06-08	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1348	1404	17.4%	23.8%	58.8%	-4.4	7
1969-06-08	Rosenborg	L 1-2	1343	1488	34.1%	24.6%	41.2%	-7.1	8
1969-06-08	@ Hodd	W 2-1	1488	1343	41.2%	24.6%	34.1%	+7.1	19
1969-06-08	Start	W 3-0	1460	1282	69.2%	21.0%	9.8%	+6.9	11
1969-06-08	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-3	1282	1460	9.8%	21.0%	69.2%	-6.8	4
1969-06-09	Sarpsborg	W 3-1	1363	1402	48.3%	24.8%	26.9%	+10.3	10
1969-06-09	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	1402	1363	26.9%	24.8%	48.3%	-10.3	12
1969-06-09	Skeid	L 1-3	1359	1366	52.1%	24.6%	23.3%	-17.5	4
1969-06-09	@ Viking	W 3-1	1366	1359	23.3%	24.6%	52.1%	+17.5	12
1969-06-12	Stromsgodset	L 0-1	1383	1467	42.5%	24.9%	32.6%	-9.0	12
1969-06-12	@ Skeid	W 1-0	1467	1383	32.6%	24.9%	42.5%	+9.0	14
1969-06-13	Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	1343	1373	49.4%	24.8%	25.8%	+5.8	10
1969-06-13	@ Brann	L 1-2	1373	1343	25.8%	24.8%	49.4%	-5.8	10
1969-06-15	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1495	1408	61.7%	23.2%	15.1%	+7.2	22
1969-06-15	@ Rosenborg	L 0-2	1408	1495	15.1%	23.2%	61.7%	-7.2	12
1969-06-15	Viking	D 0-0	1391	1341	58.3%	23.8%	17.9%	-2.1	13
1969-06-15	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1341	1391	17.9%	23.8%	58.3%	+2.1	5
1969-06-15	Hodd	W 3-0	1275	1336	45.5%	24.9%	29.6%	+18.7	7
1969-06-15	@ Start	L 0-3	1336	1275	29.6%	24.9%	45.5%	-18.7	8
1969-06-22	Skeid	L 1-3	1401	1374	55.8%	24.2%	20.0%	-18.7	12
1969-06-22	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-1	1374	1401	20.0%	24.2%	55.8%	+18.7	15
1969-06-22	Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1317	1389	44.1%	24.9%	31.0%	-0.6	9
1969-06-22	@ Hodd	D 0-0	1389	1317	31.0%	24.9%	44.1%	+0.6	14
1969-06-22	Start	L 0-2	1367	1294	60.5%	23.4%	16.1%	-23.2	10
1969-06-22	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	1294	1367	16.1%	23.4%	60.5%	+23.2	10
1969-06-22	Brann	W 3-1	1476	1349	65.2%	22.3%	12.5%	+5.2	17
1969-06-22	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-3	1349	1476	12.5%	22.3%	65.2%	-5.2	10
1969-06-23	Rosenborg	W 3-1	1343	1502	32.2%	24.5%	43.3%	+14.9	8
1969-06-23	@ Viking	L 1-3	1502	1343	43.3%	24.5%	32.2%	-14.9	22
1969-07-27	Brann	L 0-1	1317	1344	49.8%	24.7%	25.5%	-10.3	9
1969-07-27	@ Hodd	W 1-0	1344	1317	25.5%	24.7%	49.8%	+10.3	13
1969-07-28	Stromsgodset	D 1-1	1382	1481	40.4%	24.9%	34.7%	-0.2	13
1969-07-28	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1481	1382	34.7%	24.9%	40.4%	+0.2	18
1969-07-28	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1487	1390	62.7%	23.0%	14.4%	+6.9	25
1969-07-28	@ Rosenborg	L 0-2	1390	1487	14.4%	23.0%	62.7%	-6.9	14
1969-07-28	Start	W 2-1	1393	1317	60.7%	23.4%	15.9%	+3.8	18
1969-07-28	@ Skeid	L 1-2	1317	1393	15.9%	23.4%	60.7%	-3.8	10
1969-07-28	Lyn Oslo	W 3-0	1358	1344	54.5%	24.4%	21.2%	+14.2	11
1969-07-28	@ Viking	L 0-3	1344	1358	21.2%	24.4%	54.5%	-14.2	10
1969-08-06	Rosenborg	L 0-1	1354	1494	34.7%	24.7%	40.6%	-7.7	13
1969-08-06	@ Brann	W 1-0	1494	1354	40.6%	24.7%	34.7%	+7.7	28
1969-08-06	Fredrikstad	L 0-4	1330	1382	46.6%	24.9%	28.5%	-34.8	10
1969-08-06	@ Lyn Oslo	W 4-0	1382	1330	28.5%	24.9%	46.6%	+34.8	16
1969-08-06	Skeid	L 0-2	1383	1397	51.3%	24.6%	24.0%	-20.0	14
1969-08-06	@ Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1397	1383	24.0%	24.6%	51.3%	+19.9	21
1969-08-06	Viking	W 1-0	1313	1372	45.8%	24.9%	29.3%	+6.8	13
1969-08-06	@ Start	L 0-1	1372	1313	29.3%	24.9%	45.8%	-6.8	11
1969-08-06	Hodd	W 2-1	1482	1307	68.9%	21.1%	10.0%	+2.4	21
1969-08-06	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-2	1307	1482	10.0%	21.1%	68.9%	-2.4	9
1969-08-10	Hodd	W 5-0	1417	1304	64.0%	22.6%	13.4%	+15.0	19
1969-08-10	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-5	1304	1417	13.4%	22.6%	64.0%	-15.0	9
1969-08-10	Start	W 2-0	1502	1320	69.4%	20.9%	9.7%	+4.6	31
1969-08-10	@ Rosenborg	L 0-2	1320	1502	9.7%	20.9%	69.4%	-4.6	13
1969-08-10	Stromsgodset	D 2-2	1365	1484	37.7%	24.8%	37.5%	-0.0	12
1969-08-10	@ Viking	D 2-2	1484	1365	37.5%	24.8%	37.7%	+0.0	22
1969-08-11	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1346	1363	51.0%	24.7%	24.3%	+11.0	16
1969-08-11	@ Brann	L 0-2	1363	1346	24.3%	24.7%	51.0%	-11.0	14
1969-08-11	Skeid	L 1-3	1295	1417	37.2%	24.8%	38.0%	-13.2	10
1969-08-11	@ Lyn Oslo	W 3-1	1417	1295	38.0%	24.8%	37.2%	+13.3	24
1969-08-17	Viking	L 1-2	1289	1365	43.5%	24.9%	31.6%	-8.6	9
1969-08-17	@ Hodd	W 2-1	1365	1289	31.6%	24.9%	43.5%	+8.6	15
1969-08-17	Brann	D 1-1	1315	1357	47.9%	24.8%	27.3%	-0.9	14
1969-08-17	@ Start	D 1-1	1357	1315	27.3%	24.8%	47.9%	+0.9	17
1969-08-18	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1432	1352	61.1%	23.3%	15.6%	-12.4	19
1969-08-18	@ Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1352	1432	15.6%	23.3%	61.1%	+12.4	17
1969-08-18	Rosenborg	W 2-0	1430	1506	43.5%	24.9%	31.6%	+13.5	27
1969-08-18	@ Skeid	L 0-2	1506	1430	31.6%	24.9%	43.5%	-13.5	31
1969-08-18	Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	1484	1282	70.9%	20.3%	8.8%	-3.1	23
1969-08-18	@ Stromsgodset	D 1-1	1282	1484	8.8%	20.3%	70.9%	+3.1	11
1969-08-30	Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1374	1419	47.5%	24.8%	27.7%	-1.0	16
1969-08-30	@ Viking	D 0-0	1419	1374	27.7%	24.8%	47.5%	+1.0	20
1969-08-31	Hodd	W 5-1	1285	1280	53.4%	24.5%	22.1%	+16.1	14
1969-08-31	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-5	1280	1285	22.1%	24.5%	53.4%	-16.1	9
1969-08-31	Stromsgodset	W 3-1	1493	1481	54.2%	24.4%	21.4%	+8.5	34
1969-08-31	@ Rosenborg	L 1-3	1481	1493	21.4%	24.4%	54.2%	-8.5	23
1969-08-31	Start	W 3-0	1364	1314	58.2%	23.9%	17.9%	+12.3	20
1969-08-31	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-3	1314	1364	17.9%	23.9%	58.2%	-12.3	14
1969-09-01	Skeid	D 2-2	1358	1443	42.3%	24.9%	32.8%	-0.3	18
1969-09-01	@ Brann	D 2-2	1443	1358	32.8%	24.9%	42.3%	+0.3	28
1969-09-13	Sarpsborg	D 1-1	1373	1377	52.5%	24.6%	22.9%	-1.4	17
1969-09-13	@ Viking	D 1-1	1377	1373	22.9%	24.6%	52.5%	+1.3	21
1969-09-14	Rosenborg	W 4-2	1420	1501	42.9%	24.9%	32.2%	+10.6	23
1969-09-14	@ Fredrikstad	L 2-4	1501	1420	32.2%	24.9%	42.9%	-10.6	34
1969-09-14	Start	W 5-1	1264	1302	48.4%	24.8%	26.8%	+18.8	12
1969-09-14	@ Hodd	L 1-5	1302	1264	26.8%	24.8%	48.4%	-18.8	14
1969-09-14	Brann	D 1-1	1301	1358	46.0%	24.9%	29.1%	-0.7	15
1969-09-14	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	1358	1301	29.1%	24.9%	46.0%	+0.8	19
1969-09-14	Skeid	W 2-1	1472	1444	56.0%	24.2%	19.8%	+4.6	26
1969-09-14	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-2	1444	1472	19.8%	24.2%	56.0%	-4.6	28
1969-09-28	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1359	1431	44.0%	24.9%	31.1%	-0.6	20
1969-09-28	@ Brann	D 1-1	1431	1359	31.1%	24.9%	44.0%	+0.6	24
1969-09-28	Hodd	W 2-1	1491	1283	71.3%	20.1%	8.6%	+2.0	37
1969-09-28	@ Rosenborg	L 1-2	1283	1491	8.6%	20.1%	71.3%	-2.0	12
1969-09-28	Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	1378	1300	60.9%	23.4%	15.7%	-1.6	22
1969-09-28	@ Sarpsborg	D 2-2	1300	1378	15.7%	23.4%	60.9%	+1.6	16
1969-09-28	Viking	L 0-1	1439	1372	59.9%	23.6%	16.5%	-12.2	28
1969-09-28	@ Skeid	W 1-0	1372	1439	16.5%	23.6%	59.9%	+12.2	20
1969-09-28	Stromsgodset	L 3-4	1283	1477	27.9%	24.1%	48.0%	-5.6	14
1969-09-28	@ Start	W 4-3	1477	1283	48.0%	24.1%	27.9%	+5.6	29
1969-10-12	Start	W 3-1	1432	1278	67.3%	21.6%	11.0%	+4.6	27
1969-10-12	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-3	1278	1432	11.0%	21.6%	67.3%	-4.6	14
1969-10-12	Skeid	D 3-3	1281	1427	33.9%	24.6%	41.4%	+0.2	13
1969-10-12	@ Hodd	D 3-3	1427	1281	41.4%	24.6%	33.9%	-0.2	29
1969-10-12	Rosenborg	L 1-2	1302	1493	28.2%	24.1%	47.6%	-6.1	16
1969-10-12	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	1493	1302	47.6%	24.1%	28.2%	+6.1	40
1969-10-12	Sarpsborg	D 2-2	1483	1376	63.4%	22.8%	13.8%	-1.8	30
1969-10-12	@ Stromsgodset	D 2-2	1376	1483	13.8%	22.8%	63.4%	+1.8	23
1969-10-12	Brann	D 0-0	1384	1358	55.7%	24.2%	20.1%	-1.9	21
1969-10-12	@ Viking	D 0-0	1358	1384	20.1%	24.2%	55.7%	+1.9	21
1969-10-19	Stromsgodset	W 2-1	1360	1481	37.4%	24.8%	37.8%	+7.7	24
1969-10-19	@ Brann	L 1-2	1481	1360	37.8%	24.8%	37.4%	-7.8	30
1969-10-19	Viking	L 0-1	1499	1382	64.3%	22.5%	13.1%	-13.0	40
1969-10-19	@ Rosenborg	W 1-0	1382	1499	13.1%	22.5%	64.3%	+13.0	24
1969-10-19	Hodd	L 1-3	1378	1281	62.6%	23.0%	14.4%	-20.7	23
1969-10-19	@ Sarpsborg	W 3-1	1281	1378	14.4%	23.0%	62.6%	+20.7	16
1969-10-19	Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1427	1436	51.8%	24.6%	23.6%	-10.7	29
1969-10-19	@ Skeid	W 1-0	1436	1427	23.6%	24.6%	51.8%	+10.7	30
1969-10-19	Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	1273	1296	50.3%	24.7%	25.0%	+11.2	17
1969-10-19	@ Start	L 0-2	1296	1273	25.0%	24.7%	50.3%	-11.2	16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1969-10-19	13.11%	Viking	1382	1	@ Rosenborg	1499	0
2	1969-10-19	14.39%	Hodd	1281	3	@ Sarpsborg	1378	1
3	1969-08-18	15.59%	Sarpsborg	1352	1	@ Fredrikstad	1432	0
4	1969-06-22	16.07%	Start	1294	2	@ Lyn Oslo	1367	0
5	1969-09-28	16.53%	Viking	1372	1	@ Skeid	1439	0
6	1969-06-22	19.97%	Skeid	1374	3	@ Fredrikstad	1401	1
7	1969-05-15	20.74%	Hodd	1355	2	@ Viking	1373	1
8	1969-05-16	22.08%	Stromsgodset	1421	8	@ Lyn Oslo	1426	1
9	1969-06-09	23.33%	Skeid	1366	3	@ Viking	1359	1
10	1969-10-19	23.57%	Fredrikstad	1436	1	@ Skeid	1427	0
11	1969-08-06	24.02%	Skeid	1397	2	@ Sarpsborg	1383	0
12	1969-05-11	25.14%	Fredrikstad	1395	3	@ Hodd	1372	1
13	1969-07-27	25.50%	Brann	1344	1	@ Hodd	1317	0
14	1969-05-12	26.65%	Lyn Oslo	1407	2	@ Skeid	1370	0
15	1969-08-06	28.50%	Fredrikstad	1382	4	@ Lyn Oslo	1330	0
16	1969-05-22	28.54%	Sarpsborg	1361	3	@ Start	1309	0
17	1969-04-27	28.62%	Rosenborg	1416	1	@ Sarpsborg	1363	0
18	1969-08-17	31.60%	Viking	1365	2	@ Hodd	1289	1
19	1969-06-23	32.20%	@ Viking	1343	3	Rosenborg	1502	1
20	1969-06-12	32.62%	Stromsgodset	1467	1	@ Skeid	1383	0
21	1969-05-11	36.67%	Rosenborg	1445	4	@ Start	1332	1
22	1969-10-19	37.35%	@ Brann	1360	2	Stromsgodset	1481	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1969-05-16	54.76	Stromsgodset	8	1421	22.08%	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1426	53.46%
2	1969-08-06	34.81	Fredrikstad	4	1382	28.50%	@ Lyn Oslo	0	1330	46.62%
3	1969-05-22	26.63	Sarpsborg	3	1361	28.54%	@ Start	0	1309	46.59%
4	1969-06-22	23.18	Start	2	1294	16.07%	@ Lyn Oslo	0	1367	60.48%
5	1969-05-27	21.11	@ Skeid	4	1345	50.62%	Hodd	0	1364	24.69%
6	1969-10-19	20.73	Hodd	3	1281	14.39%	@ Sarpsborg	1	1378	62.63%
7	1969-08-06	19.95	Skeid	2	1397	24.02%	@ Sarpsborg	0	1383	51.34%
8	1969-05-04	19.61	@ Rosenborg	5	1426	58.41%	Brann	0	1374	17.76%
9	1969-05-11	19.23	Rosenborg	4	1445	36.67%	@ Start	1	1332	38.49%
10	1969-05-12	19.00	Lyn Oslo	2	1407	26.65%	@ Skeid	0	1370	48.55%
11	1969-09-14	18.77	@ Hodd	5	1264	48.44%	Start	1	1302	26.75%
12	1969-06-15	18.67	@ Start	3	1275	45.50%	Hodd	0	1336	29.60%
13	1969-06-22	18.65	Skeid	3	1374	19.97%	@ Fredrikstad	1	1401	55.83%
14	1969-06-09	17.51	Skeid	3	1366	23.33%	@ Viking	1	1359	52.09%
15	1969-05-11	16.92	Fredrikstad	3	1395	25.14%	@ Hodd	1	1372	50.15%
16	1969-08-31	16.06	@ Lyn Oslo	5	1285	53.40%	Hodd	1	1280	22.13%
17	1969-08-10	15.03	@ Fredrikstad	5	1417	63.99%	Hodd	0	1304	13.37%
18	1969-06-23	14.88	@ Viking	3	1343	32.20%	Rosenborg	1	1502	43.29%
19	1969-07-28	14.21	@ Viking	3	1358	54.47%	Lyn Oslo	0	1344	21.17%
20	1969-05-27	13.98	@ Sarpsborg	2	1388	42.11%	Stromsgodset	0	1474	32.98%
21	1969-08-18	13.54	@ Skeid	2	1430	43.45%	Rosenborg	0	1506	31.63%
22	1969-08-11	13.26	Skeid	3	1417	37.96%	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1295	37.24%
23	1969-10-19	13.01	Viking	1	1382	13.11%	@ Rosenborg	0	1499	64.35%
24	1969-08-18	12.41	Sarpsborg	1	1352	15.59%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1432	61.08%
25	1969-08-31	12.28	@ Sarpsborg	3	1364	58.23%	Start	0	1314	17.92%