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1970 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Stromsgodset

25 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Pors Grenland

7 pts

Skeid · 11 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Brann

4.79 points above expected

23 points · 18.21 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Skeid

5.10 points below expected

11 points · 16.10 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Stromsgodset Champion 18 11 3 4 25 36 21 +15 21.84 +3.16
2 Rosenborg 18 10 4 4 24 15 5 +10 21.63 +2.37
3 Hamarkameratene 18 10 3 5 23 31 15 +16 21.73 +1.27
4 Brann 18 9 5 4 23 18 11 +7 18.21 +4.79
5 Sarpsborg 18 9 3 6 21 21 21 0 18.22 +2.78
6 Viking 18 8 3 7 19 27 20 +7 18.43 +0.57
7 Fredrikstad 18 5 6 7 16 16 21 -5 17.80 -1.80
8 Hodd 18 4 3 11 11 20 27 -7 14.27 -3.27
9 Skeid Relegated 18 4 3 11 11 16 23 -7 16.10 -5.10
10 Pors Grenland Relegated 18 3 1 14 7 10 46 -36 11.77 -4.77

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Brann 23 18.21 +4.79
2 Stromsgodset 25 21.84 +3.16
3 Sarpsborg 21 18.22 +2.78
4 Rosenborg 24 21.63 +2.37
5 Hamarkameratene 23 21.73 +1.27

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Skeid 11 16.10 -5.10
2 Pors Grenland 7 11.77 -4.77
3 Hodd 11 14.27 -3.27
4 Fredrikstad 16 17.80 -1.80
5 Viking 19 18.43 +0.57

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 6 Aug 3 – Sep 20 1 in 228
2 Sarpsborg 4 Apr 27 – May 19 1 in 120
3 Fredrikstad 4 Aug 23 – Sep 27 1 in 46
4 Hamarkameratene 3 May 16 – May 31 1 in 17
5 Hodd 2 Oct 11 – Oct 18 1 in 11

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Pors Grenland 9 Aug 3 – Oct 18 1 in 76
2 Fredrikstad 3 Jun 22 – Aug 3 1 in 46
3 Hodd 6 Aug 2 – Sep 27 1 in 26
4 Sarpsborg 2 May 24 – May 29 1 in 22
5 Skeid 3 Apr 27 – May 10 1 in 18

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Brann 9 Aug 3 – Oct 18 1 in 76
2 Fredrikstad 6 Aug 12 – Sep 27 1 in 38
3 Sarpsborg 4 Apr 27 – May 19 1 in 15
4 Hodd 3 May 10 – May 24 1 in 8
5 Pors Grenland 3 May 10 – May 24 1 in 8

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Fredrikstad 6 Apr 27 – Jun 1 1 in 32
2 Skeid 5 Apr 27 – May 25 1 in 13
3 Sarpsborg 4 Aug 3 – Aug 23 1 in 12
4 Stromsgodset 3 May 10 – May 24 1 in 10
5 Rosenborg 3 May 9 – May 24 1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Stromsgodset 1496 25 +2 7 6.3 +0.7
Rosenborg 1492 24 -5 5 6.1 -1.1
Brann 1442 23 +39 8 5.2 +2.8
Hamarkameratene 1448 23 -12 6 6.5 -0.5
Sarpsborg 1343 21 -4 5 4.8 +0.2
Viking 1430 19 +28 5 5.6 -0.6
Fredrikstad 1336 16 +7 6 5.1 +0.9
Hodd 1310 11 +89 5 3.6 +1.4
Skeid 1310 11 -23 3 3.8 -0.8
Pors Grenland 1058 7 -120 0 3.0 -3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team BRA FRE HAM HOD PG ROS SAR SKE STR VIK
Brann —
1-1-0
2.71
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
3.38
2-0-0
3.59
0-1-1
2.12
0-1-1
3.02
1-1-0
3.07
1-1-0
1.99
1-0-1
2.70
Fredrikstad
0-1-1
2.89
 —
0-2-0
2.23
1-1-0
3.40
1-0-1
4.11
1-0-1
2.08
0-1-1
2.75
1-0-1
3.24
1-1-0
1.98
0-0-2
2.69
Hamarkameratene
1-0-1
3.05
0-2-0
3.37
 —
1-0-1
3.78
2-0-0
4.09
1-0-1
2.78
1-0-1
3.42
1-1-0
3.86
1-0-1
2.40
2-0-0
2.89
Hodd
0-0-2
2.22
0-1-1
2.20
1-0-1
1.83
 —
2-0-0
3.22
0-1-1
1.61
0-0-2
2.11
0-1-1
2.43
0-0-2
1.87
1-0-1
1.67
Pors Grenland
0-0-2
2.02
1-0-1
1.50
0-0-2
1.53
0-0-2
2.38
 —
0-0-2
1.78
1-0-1
1.68
1-0-1
2.01
0-0-2
1.40
0-1-1
2.07
Rosenborg
1-1-0
3.48
1-0-1
3.52
1-0-1
2.81
1-1-0
4.00
2-0-0
3.83
 —
0-1-1
3.61
2-0-0
3.47
1-0-1
2.84
1-1-0
3.65
Sarpsborg
1-1-0
2.58
1-1-0
2.85
1-0-1
2.19
2-0-0
3.49
1-0-1
3.92
1-1-0
1.99
 —
1-0-1
3.06
0-0-2
2.38
1-0-1
2.84
Skeid
0-1-1
2.53
1-0-1
2.37
0-1-1
1.75
1-1-0
3.17
1-0-1
3.59
0-0-2
2.13
1-0-1
2.54
 —
0-0-2
1.79
0-0-2
2.58
Stromsgodset
0-1-1
3.61
0-1-1
3.62
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
3.73
2-0-0
4.21
1-0-1
2.75
2-0-0
3.22
2-0-0
3.81
 —
1-1-0
3.26
Viking
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
2.91
0-0-2
2.71
1-0-1
3.94
1-1-0
3.53
0-1-1
1.96
1-0-1
2.76
2-0-0
3.02
0-1-1
2.34
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.38 +4.9
Allowed 0.66 -4.8
Differential 0.81 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
010.00%13.89%8.89%2.78%0.56%1.11%37.22%
113.89%5.56%6.67%1.67%1.67%0.56%30.00%
28.89%6.67%3.33%1.11%1.11%—21.11%
32.78%1.67%1.11%—0.56%—6.11%
40.56%1.67%1.11%0.56%——3.89%
5+1.11%0.56%————1.67%
Total37.22%30.00%21.11%6.11%3.89%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.17 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 1.89
CV 1.10 1.10 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%—5.56%——33.33%
122.22%11.11%5.56%———38.89%
211.11%11.11%————22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total55.56%33.33%5.56%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 0.61 +0.39
SD 0.91 0.85 1.38
CV 0.91 1.39 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%16.67%———38.89%
116.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
25.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%16.67%33.33%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.17 -0.28
SD 0.83 1.10 1.23
CV 0.94 0.94 —
Max 2 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%—5.56%——33.33%
116.67%5.56%————22.22%
211.11%———5.56%—16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total50.00%33.33%5.56%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.72 0.83 +0.89
SD 1.81 1.15 2.17
CV 1.05 1.38 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%16.67%———38.89%
111.11%—16.67%5.56%5.56%—38.89%
25.56%—5.56%———11.11%
3————5.56%—5.56%
4———————
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total33.33%11.11%38.89%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.50 -0.39
SD 1.49 1.34 2.03
CV 1.34 0.89 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%55.56%
15.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2—11.11%————11.11%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%38.89%16.67%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.56 2.56 -2.00
SD 0.70 2.06 2.30
CV 1.27 0.81 —
Max 2 7 +1
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%16.67%5.56%———44.44%
133.33%—————33.33%
216.67%—————16.67%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total77.78%16.67%5.56%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.83 0.28 +0.56
SD 0.92 0.57 1.29
CV 1.11 2.07 —
Max 3 2 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%——27.78%
116.67%11.11%5.56%———33.33%
25.56%22.22%—5.56%——33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%22.22%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.17 +0.00
SD 0.92 0.99 1.37
CV 0.79 0.84 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%22.22%16.67%5.56%——50.00%
15.56%11.11%16.67%———33.33%
2———————
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%44.44%33.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.28 -0.39
SD 1.23 0.83 1.69
CV 1.39 0.65 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
111.11%———5.56%—16.67%
216.67%5.56%11.11%———33.33%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total33.33%33.33%22.22%5.56%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.17 +0.83
SD 1.78 1.15 1.98
CV 0.89 0.99 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
1—5.56%11.11%———16.67%
216.67%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—38.89%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%27.78%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.11 +0.39
SD 1.20 1.08 1.72
CV 0.80 0.97 —
Max 4 4 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Stromsgodset 1496 25 21.84 +3.16 87.0% 16 16 19 22 24 27 29
Rosenborg 1492 24 21.63 +2.37 78.0% 8 15 19 22 24 28 32
Hamarkameratene 1448 23 21.73 +1.27 65.0% 11 14 20 22 24 27 30
Brann 1442 23 18.21 +4.79 91.0% 11 11 15 18 20 24 29
Viking 1430 19 18.43 +0.57 62.0% 9 12 16 18 21 24 28
Sarpsborg 1343 21 18.22 +2.78 81.0% 9 12 16 18 21 24 25
Fredrikstad 1336 16 17.80 -1.80 34.0% 11 12 15 18 20 22 29
Skeid 1310 11 16.10 -5.10 9.0% 7 11 13 16 19 22 27
Hodd 1310 11 14.27 -3.27 23.0% 7 8 12 14 16 20 25
Pors Grenland 1058 7 11.77 -4.77 9.0% 6 7 10 12 14 17 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+14.44%
No Edge
47.78%18.89%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 50.54 Elo pts.
168 Elo
0.006 goals per Elo point
0500
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.24 goals
Neutral
-2+0.30+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
Top-Heavy
134610
Champion Preseason Odds
33%
Stromsgodset, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Photo Finish
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.89 * Some Luck: 2.89 to 4.34 * Lucky: 4.34 to 5.79 * Wild Swing: 5.79 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.49 * Close: 1.49 to 2.24 * Off: 2.24 to 2.98 * Way Off: 2.98 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations
Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.79 * A Surprise: 0.79 to 1.26 * Several Surprises: 1.26 to 1.74 * Many Surprises: 1.74 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.33 points
Some Luck
03.629
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Pinpoint
01.864
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
91.00%
Brann
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
9.00%
Skeid
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010
Unexpected Relegations
Expected
1 of 2
A Surprise
00.82

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Top-Heavy
00.140.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 129.93
1.67
Strong Separation
0.91.351.551.752.5
Interquartile Edge
68%
Clear Edge
50%61.5%69.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
93%
Dominant
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
63%
Very Frequent
0%57%100%
Blowouts
Expected
13%
Rare
0%19%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.58
Predictable
00.592
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Notable Separation
00.320.380.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.88
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.57
Strong Carryover
00.280.481
Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Shaky Favorites
0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.99
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.09
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.062
Well Within Noise
00.1720.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Stromsgodset33.00%14.00%13.00%15.00%10.00%11.00%3.00%1.00%——
Rosenborg23.00%26.00%13.00%7.00%10.00%11.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%2.00%
Hamarkameratene32.00%19.00%19.00%9.00%8.00%3.00%5.00%1.00%3.00%1.00%
Brann5.00%12.00%13.00%13.00%7.00%13.00%14.00%12.00%7.00%4.00%
Sarpsborg2.00%12.00%10.00%9.00%16.00%21.00%12.00%9.00%6.00%3.00%
Viking2.00%11.00%15.00%11.00%18.00%12.00%12.00%10.00%6.00%3.00%
Fredrikstad2.00%2.00%7.00%18.00%18.00%9.00%16.00%13.00%13.00%2.00%
Hodd—1.00%4.00%3.00%4.00%9.00%18.00%19.00%20.00%22.00%
Skeid1.00%2.00%6.00%15.00%7.00%10.00%12.00%19.00%19.00%9.00%
Pors Grenland—1.00%——2.00%1.00%5.00%12.00%25.00%54.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Stromsgodset 100% —
Rosenborg 97.00% 3.00%
Hamarkameratene 96.00% 4.00%
Sarpsborg 91.00% 9.00%
Viking 91.00% 9.00%
Brann 89.00% 11.00%
Fredrikstad 85.00% 15.00%
Skeid 72.00% 28.00%
Hodd 58.00% 42.00%
Pors Grenland 21.00% 79.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1970-04-27 Brann D 0-053.7 1402 1357 56.37% 19.93% 23.70%+0.57 -3.1 1
1970-04-27 @ Fredrikstad D 0-053.7 1357 1402 23.70% 19.93% 56.37%-0.57 +3.1 1
1970-04-27 Stromsgodset L 1-346.1 1322 1412 38.88% 20.02% 41.10%-0.24 -24.7 0
1970-04-27 @ Hodd W 3-146.1 1412 1322 41.10% 20.02% 38.88%+0.24 +24.7 2
1970-04-27 Rosenborg L 0-239.8 1309 1416 36.56% 20.01% 43.44%-0.34 -27.2 0
1970-04-27 @ Pors Grenland W 2-039.8 1416 1309 43.44% 20.01% 36.56%+0.34 +27.2 2
1970-04-27 Sarpsborg L 1-254.4 1384 1351 55.12% 19.95% 24.93%+0.50 -19.3 0
1970-04-27 @ Skeid W 2-154.4 1351 1384 24.93% 19.95% 55.12%-0.50 +19.3 2
1970-04-27 Hamarkameratene L 0-245.2 1372 1339 55.03% 19.95% 25.02%+0.50 -38.6 0
1970-04-27 @ Viking W 2-045.2 1339 1372 25.02% 19.95% 55.03%-0.50 +38.6 2
1970-05-03 Fredrikstad D 0-054.0 1378 1399 48.50% 20.02% 31.48%+0.18 -1.6 3
1970-05-03 @ Hamarkameratene D 0-054.0 1399 1378 31.48% 20.02% 48.50%-0.18 +1.6 2
1970-05-03 Viking W 2-144.8 1370 1334 55.42% 19.95% 24.63%+0.52 +9.8 4
1970-05-03 @ Sarpsborg L 1-244.8 1334 1370 24.63% 19.95% 55.42%-0.52 -9.8 0
1970-05-03 Pors Grenland W 7-132.2 1437 1282 66.52% 19.56% 13.93%+1.23 +27.1 4
1970-05-03 @ Stromsgodset L 1-732.2 1282 1437 13.93% 19.56% 66.52%-1.23 -27.1 0
1970-05-04 Hodd W 2-034.5 1360 1297 58.30% 19.89% 21.81%+0.68 +17.6 3
1970-05-04 @ Brann L 0-234.5 1297 1360 21.81% 19.89% 58.30%-0.68 -17.6 0
1970-05-04 Skeid W 1-039.7 1443 1365 59.84% 19.84% 20.31%+0.77 +8.8 4
1970-05-04 @ Rosenborg L 0-139.7 1365 1443 20.31% 19.84% 59.84%-0.77 -8.8 0
1970-05-08 Sarpsborg L 2-359.3 1400 1380 53.62% 19.97% 26.40%+0.42 -17.9 2
1970-05-08 @ Fredrikstad W 3-259.3 1380 1400 26.40% 19.97% 53.62%-0.42 +17.9 6
1970-05-09 Rosenborg D 0-054.0 1324 1452 33.69% 19.98% 46.33%-0.46 +1.2 1
1970-05-09 @ Viking D 0-054.0 1452 1324 46.33% 19.98% 33.69%+0.46 -1.2 5
1970-05-10 Hamarkameratene W 1-043.9 1280 1376 37.98% 20.02% 42.00%-0.28 +16.1 2
1970-05-10 @ Hodd L 0-143.9 1376 1280 42.00% 20.02% 37.98%+0.28 -16.1 3
1970-05-10 Skeid W 2-149.3 1255 1356 37.32% 20.01% 42.67%-0.30 +15.4 2
1970-05-10 @ Pors Grenland L 1-249.3 1356 1255 42.67% 20.01% 37.32%+0.30 -15.4 0
1970-05-10 Brann D 0-055.6 1464 1378 60.65% 19.82% 19.53%+0.82 -4.0 5
1970-05-10 @ Stromsgodset D 0-055.6 1378 1464 19.53% 19.82% 60.65%-0.82 +4.0 4
1970-05-16 Hodd D 2-263.0 1382 1296 60.67% 19.82% 19.51%+0.82 -2.7 3
1970-05-16 @ Fredrikstad D 2-263.0 1296 1382 19.51% 19.82% 60.67%-0.82 +2.7 3
1970-05-16 Stromsgodset W 4-145.9 1360 1460 37.53% 20.02% 42.46%-0.29 +37.6 5
1970-05-16 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-445.9 1460 1360 42.46% 20.02% 37.53%+0.29 -37.6 5
1970-05-16 Viking D 1-156.7 1270 1325 43.89% 20.04% 36.07%-0.03 -0.6 3
1970-05-16 @ Pors Grenland D 1-156.7 1325 1270 36.07% 20.04% 43.89%+0.03 +0.6 2
1970-05-19 Sarpsborg L 0-151.8 1451 1398 57.27% 19.91% 22.82%+0.62 -21.3 5
1970-05-19 @ Rosenborg W 1-051.8 1398 1451 22.82% 19.91% 57.27%-0.62 +21.3 8
1970-05-19 Brann D 1-158.0 1341 1382 45.77% 20.04% 34.20%+0.06 -0.9 1
1970-05-19 @ Skeid D 1-158.0 1382 1341 34.20% 20.04% 45.77%-0.06 +0.9 5
1970-05-24 Rosenborg D 0-053.2 1298 1429 33.31% 19.97% 46.72%-0.48 +1.2 4
1970-05-24 @ Hodd D 0-053.2 1429 1298 46.72% 19.97% 33.31%+0.48 -1.2 6
1970-05-24 Pors Grenland L 0-151.3 1419 1269 66.06% 19.59% 14.36%+1.19 -24.5 8
1970-05-24 @ Sarpsborg W 1-051.3 1269 1419 14.36% 19.59% 66.06%-1.19 +24.5 5
1970-05-24 Fredrikstad D 2-265.0 1423 1380 56.16% 19.93% 23.90%+0.56 -2.1 6
1970-05-24 @ Stromsgodset D 2-265.0 1380 1423 23.90% 19.93% 56.16%-0.56 +2.1 4
1970-05-25 Hamarkameratene L 0-342.5 1383 1398 49.23% 20.02% 30.75%+0.21 -50.6 5
1970-05-25 @ Brann W 3-042.5 1398 1383 30.75% 20.02% 49.23%-0.21 +50.6 7
1970-05-25 Skeid W 2-146.1 1326 1340 49.35% 20.02% 30.63%+0.22 +11.8 4
1970-05-25 @ Viking L 1-246.1 1340 1326 30.63% 20.02% 49.35%-0.22 -11.8 1
1970-05-29 Stromsgodset L 0-244.9 1394 1421 47.76% 20.03% 32.21%+0.14 -33.9 8
1970-05-29 @ Sarpsborg W 2-044.9 1421 1394 32.21% 20.03% 47.76%-0.14 +33.9 8
1970-05-31 Hamarkameratene L 0-141.4 1294 1448 30.24% 19.93% 49.83%-0.62 -12.3 5
1970-05-31 @ Pors Grenland W 1-041.4 1448 1294 49.83% 19.93% 30.24%+0.62 +12.3 9
1970-05-31 Hodd W 1-038.6 1328 1300 54.50% 19.96% 25.54%+0.47 +10.7 3
1970-05-31 @ Skeid L 0-138.6 1300 1328 25.54% 19.96% 54.50%-0.47 -10.7 4
1970-06-01 Fredrikstad W 2-037.5 1428 1382 56.53% 19.93% 23.54%+0.58 +18.9 8
1970-06-01 @ Rosenborg L 0-237.5 1382 1428 23.54% 19.93% 56.53%-0.58 -18.8 4
1970-06-01 Brann W 2-145.5 1337 1332 51.76% 20.00% 28.24%+0.33 +11.0 6
1970-06-01 @ Viking L 1-245.5 1332 1337 28.24% 20.00% 51.76%-0.33 -11.0 5
1970-06-07 Sarpsborg L 0-240.4 1289 1360 41.60% 20.03% 38.36%-0.12 -30.2 4
1970-06-07 @ Hodd W 2-040.4 1360 1289 38.36% 20.03% 41.60%+0.12 +30.2 10
1970-06-07 Viking W 1-038.8 1455 1348 62.48% 19.75% 17.77%+0.93 +7.8 10
1970-06-07 @ Stromsgodset L 0-138.8 1348 1455 17.77% 19.75% 62.48%-0.93 -7.8 6
1970-06-08 Rosenborg L 0-143.0 1321 1447 34.00% 19.98% 46.02%-0.45 -13.6 5
1970-06-08 @ Brann W 1-043.0 1447 1321 46.02% 19.98% 34.00%+0.45 +13.6 10
1970-06-08 Skeid D 1-159.5 1461 1339 63.87% 19.70% 16.43%+1.03 -4.2 10
1970-06-08 @ Hamarkameratene D 1-159.5 1339 1461 16.43% 19.70% 63.87%-1.03 +4.2 4
1970-06-11 Fredrikstad L 0-146.4 1343 1363 48.58% 20.02% 31.40%+0.18 -18.3 4
1970-06-11 @ Skeid W 1-046.4 1363 1343 31.40% 20.02% 48.58%-0.18 +18.3 6
1970-06-12 Stromsgodset W 1-045.8 1461 1462 50.90% 20.01% 29.09%+0.29 +12.0 12
1970-06-12 @ Rosenborg L 0-145.8 1462 1461 29.09% 20.01% 50.90%-0.29 -12.0 10
1970-06-12 Hamarkameratene W 1-046.0 1390 1457 42.35% 20.04% 37.62%-0.09 +14.8 12
1970-06-12 @ Sarpsborg L 0-146.0 1457 1390 37.62% 20.04% 42.35%+0.09 -14.8 10
1970-06-14 Brann L 0-339.7 1282 1308 47.79% 20.03% 32.18%+0.15 -49.3 5
1970-06-14 @ Pors Grenland W 3-039.7 1308 1282 32.18% 20.03% 47.79%-0.15 +49.3 7
1970-06-14 Hodd W 2-033.5 1341 1259 60.19% 19.83% 19.97%+0.79 +16.4 8
1970-06-14 @ Viking L 0-233.5 1259 1341 19.97% 19.83% 60.19%-0.79 -16.3 4
1970-06-21 Rosenborg W 1-046.6 1442 1472 47.19% 20.03% 32.78%+0.12 +13.2 12
1970-06-21 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-146.6 1472 1442 32.78% 20.03% 47.19%-0.12 -13.2 12
1970-06-21 Pors Grenland W 2-035.3 1242 1232 52.38% 19.99% 27.63%+0.36 +21.6 6
1970-06-21 @ Hodd L 0-235.3 1232 1242 27.63% 19.99% 52.38%-0.36 -21.6 5
1970-06-22 Sarpsborg L 0-146.2 1357 1405 44.81% 20.04% 35.15%+0.01 -17.0 7
1970-06-22 @ Brann W 1-046.2 1405 1357 35.15% 20.04% 44.81%-0.01 +17.0 14
1970-06-22 Viking L 0-245.3 1381 1357 54.06% 19.97% 25.97%+0.45 -38.0 6
1970-06-22 @ Fredrikstad W 2-045.3 1357 1381 25.97% 19.97% 54.06%-0.45 +37.9 10
1970-06-22 Stromsgodset L 0-239.9 1325 1450 33.98% 19.98% 46.03%-0.45 -25.6 4
1970-06-22 @ Skeid W 2-039.9 1450 1325 46.03% 19.98% 33.98%+0.45 +25.6 12
1970-06-26 Pors Grenland L 1-255.4 1343 1211 64.74% 19.66% 15.61%+1.09 -22.7 6
1970-06-26 @ Fredrikstad W 2-155.4 1211 1343 15.61% 19.66% 64.74%-1.09 +22.7 7
1970-08-02 Viking W 4-246.9 1455 1395 58.02% 19.89% 22.09%+0.66 +13.8 14
1970-08-02 @ Hamarkameratene L 2-446.9 1395 1455 22.09% 19.89% 58.02%-0.66 -13.8 10
1970-08-02 Hodd W 4-347.7 1476 1264 70.27% 19.28% 10.45%+1.56 +4.2 14
1970-08-02 @ Stromsgodset L 3-447.7 1264 1476 10.45% 19.28% 70.27%-1.56 -4.2 6
1970-08-03 Fredrikstad W 1-039.3 1340 1321 53.47% 19.98% 26.56%+0.42 +11.1 9
1970-08-03 @ Brann L 0-139.3 1321 1340 26.56% 19.98% 53.47%-0.42 -11.1 6
1970-08-03 Pors Grenland W 1-034.3 1459 1233 71.09% 19.20% 9.72%+1.65 +4.5 14
1970-08-03 @ Rosenborg L 0-134.3 1233 1459 9.72% 19.20% 71.09%-1.65 -4.5 7
1970-08-03 Skeid L 0-345.8 1422 1299 63.96% 19.69% 16.34%+1.03 -65.0 14
1970-08-03 @ Sarpsborg W 3-045.8 1299 1422 16.34% 19.69% 63.96%-1.03 +65.0 6
1970-08-12 Hamarkameratene D 0-054.1 1310 1469 29.66% 19.92% 50.42%-0.65 +2.0 7
1970-08-12 @ Fredrikstad D 0-054.1 1469 1310 50.42% 19.92% 29.66%+0.65 -1.9 15
1970-08-12 Brann L 1-248.1 1260 1351 38.78% 20.02% 41.20%-0.24 -14.3 6
1970-08-12 @ Hodd W 2-148.1 1351 1260 41.20% 20.02% 38.78%+0.24 +14.2 11
1970-08-12 Stromsgodset L 1-339.9 1229 1480 19.64% 19.62% 60.73%-1.20 -13.9 7
1970-08-12 @ Pors Grenland W 3-139.9 1480 1229 60.73% 19.62% 19.64%+1.20 +13.9 16
1970-08-12 Rosenborg L 0-242.2 1364 1464 37.56% 20.02% 42.43%-0.29 -27.8 6
1970-08-12 @ Skeid W 2-042.2 1464 1364 42.43% 20.02% 37.56%+0.29 +27.8 16
1970-08-12 Sarpsborg W 3-250.3 1381 1357 53.99% 19.97% 26.04%+0.44 +9.7 12
1970-08-12 @ Viking L 2-350.3 1357 1381 26.04% 19.97% 53.99%-0.44 -9.7 14
1970-08-16 Hodd W 4-133.9 1467 1246 70.82% 19.22% 9.96%+1.62 +10.6 17
1970-08-16 @ Hamarkameratene L 1-433.9 1246 1467 9.96% 19.22% 70.82%-1.62 -10.6 6
1970-08-16 Pors Grenland W 4-134.6 1336 1215 63.80% 19.70% 16.50%+1.02 +16.9 8
1970-08-16 @ Skeid L 1-434.6 1215 1336 16.50% 19.70% 63.80%-1.02 -16.9 7
1970-08-17 Stromsgodset W 1-048.9 1365 1494 33.58% 19.98% 46.45%-0.47 +17.5 13
1970-08-17 @ Brann L 0-148.9 1494 1365 46.45% 19.98% 33.58%+0.47 -17.5 16
1970-08-17 Viking W 1-041.1 1492 1391 62.00% 19.77% 18.23%+0.90 +8.0 18
1970-08-17 @ Rosenborg L 0-141.1 1391 1492 18.23% 19.77% 62.00%-0.90 -8.0 12
1970-08-17 Fredrikstad D 1-157.3 1348 1311 55.40% 19.95% 24.66%+0.52 -2.6 15
1970-08-17 @ Sarpsborg D 1-157.3 1311 1348 24.66% 19.95% 55.40%-0.52 +2.6 8
1970-08-23 Fredrikstad L 1-248.3 1235 1314 40.50% 20.03% 39.47%-0.17 -14.8 6
1970-08-23 @ Hodd W 2-148.3 1314 1235 39.47% 20.03% 40.50%+0.17 +14.8 10
1970-08-23 Rosenborg D 0-055.6 1345 1500 30.23% 19.93% 49.84%-0.62 +1.8 16
1970-08-23 @ Sarpsborg D 0-055.6 1500 1345 49.84% 19.93% 30.23%+0.62 -1.8 19
1970-08-23 Hamarkameratene W 4-252.4 1477 1477 51.01% 20.01% 28.98%+0.30 +17.4 18
1970-08-23 @ Stromsgodset L 2-452.4 1477 1477 28.98% 20.01% 51.01%-0.30 -17.4 17
1970-08-23 Pors Grenland W 4-028.1 1383 1198 68.57% 19.42% 12.01%+1.40 +19.6 14
1970-08-23 @ Viking L 0-428.1 1198 1383 12.01% 19.42% 68.57%-1.40 -19.6 7
1970-08-24 Skeid W 2-036.6 1383 1353 54.67% 19.96% 25.37%+0.48 +20.1 15
1970-08-24 @ Brann L 0-236.6 1353 1383 25.37% 19.96% 54.67%-0.48 -20.1 8
1970-09-06 Stromsgodset W 2-046.1 1329 1494 28.94% 19.91% 51.15%-0.68 +36.0 12
1970-09-06 @ Fredrikstad L 0-246.1 1494 1329 51.15% 19.91% 28.94%+0.68 -36.0 18
1970-09-06 Brann L 0-152.4 1460 1403 57.70% 19.90% 22.40%+0.64 -21.4 17
1970-09-06 @ Hamarkameratene W 1-052.4 1403 1460 22.40% 19.90% 57.70%-0.64 +21.4 17
1970-09-06 Sarpsborg L 1-244.5 1178 1347 28.55% 19.90% 51.55%-0.70 -11.1 7
1970-09-06 @ Pors Grenland W 2-144.5 1347 1178 51.55% 19.90% 28.55%+0.70 +11.1 18
1970-09-06 Hodd W 1-033.9 1498 1220 73.70% 18.87% 7.43%+1.95 +3.5 21
1970-09-06 @ Rosenborg L 0-133.9 1220 1498 7.43% 18.87% 73.70%-1.95 -3.5 6
1970-09-07 Viking L 0-339.5 1333 1402 41.89% 20.04% 38.08%-0.11 -44.1 8
1970-09-07 @ Skeid W 3-039.5 1402 1333 38.08% 20.04% 41.89%+0.11 +44.1 16
1970-09-20 Viking W 2-150.5 1424 1446 48.32% 20.03% 31.66%+0.17 +12.1 19
1970-09-20 @ Brann L 1-250.5 1446 1424 31.66% 20.03% 48.32%-0.17 -12.1 16
1970-09-20 Rosenborg W 1-049.4 1365 1501 32.59% 19.97% 47.44%-0.51 +17.9 14
1970-09-20 @ Fredrikstad L 0-149.4 1501 1365 47.44% 19.97% 32.59%+0.51 -17.9 21
1970-09-20 Pors Grenland W 6-027.6 1439 1167 73.42% 18.91% 7.67%+1.92 +18.7 19
1970-09-20 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-627.6 1167 1439 7.67% 18.91% 73.42%-1.92 -18.7 7
1970-09-20 Sarpsborg W 2-144.9 1458 1358 61.93% 19.78% 18.29%+0.90 +7.6 20
1970-09-20 @ Stromsgodset L 1-244.9 1358 1458 18.29% 19.78% 61.93%-0.90 -7.6 18
1970-09-27 Fredrikstad L 0-136.7 1149 1383 21.30% 19.69% 59.01%-1.09 -9.1 7
1970-09-27 @ Pors Grenland W 1-036.7 1383 1149 59.01% 19.69% 21.30%+1.09 +9.1 16
1970-09-27 Brann D 0-058.0 1483 1436 56.60% 19.92% 23.47%+0.58 -3.2 22
1970-09-27 @ Rosenborg D 0-058.0 1436 1483 23.47% 19.92% 56.60%-0.58 +3.2 20
1970-09-27 Hodd W 2-140.8 1350 1217 64.80% 19.65% 15.55%+1.09 +6.5 20
1970-09-27 @ Sarpsborg L 1-240.8 1217 1350 15.55% 19.65% 64.80%-1.09 -6.5 6
1970-09-27 Stromsgodset D 2-267.7 1434 1466 47.12% 20.03% 32.84%+0.12 -0.9 17
1970-09-27 @ Viking D 2-267.7 1466 1434 32.84% 20.03% 47.12%-0.12 +0.9 21
1970-09-28 Hamarkameratene L 0-141.0 1289 1457 28.54% 19.90% 51.57%-0.70 -11.8 8
1970-09-28 @ Skeid W 1-041.0 1457 1289 51.57% 19.90% 28.54%+0.70 +11.8 21
1970-10-04 Skeid D 0-051.3 1210 1277 42.22% 20.04% 37.74%-0.10 -0.4 7
1970-10-04 @ Hodd D 0-051.3 1277 1210 37.74% 20.04% 42.22%+0.10 +0.4 9
1970-10-11 Pors Grenland W 1-032.2 1440 1139 74.69% 18.72% 6.59%+2.09 +3.1 22
1970-10-11 @ Brann L 0-132.2 1139 1440 6.59% 18.72% 74.69%-2.09 -3.1 7
1970-10-11 Skeid L 1-352.5 1392 1278 63.20% 19.73% 17.08%+0.98 -38.3 16
1970-10-11 @ Fredrikstad W 3-152.5 1278 1392 17.08% 19.73% 63.20%-0.98 +38.3 11
1970-10-11 Sarpsborg W 2-036.0 1469 1357 63.03% 19.73% 17.24%+0.97 +14.3 23
1970-10-11 @ Hamarkameratene L 0-236.0 1357 1469 17.24% 19.73% 63.03%-0.97 -14.3 20
1970-10-11 Viking W 1-048.4 1210 1433 22.36% 19.73% 57.91%-1.03 +21.5 9
1970-10-11 @ Hodd L 0-148.4 1433 1210 57.91% 19.73% 22.36%+1.03 -21.5 17
1970-10-11 Rosenborg W 2-043.8 1466 1480 49.39% 20.02% 30.59%+0.22 +23.5 23
1970-10-11 @ Stromsgodset L 0-243.8 1480 1466 30.59% 20.02% 49.39%-0.22 -23.5 22
1970-10-18 Hodd L 0-636.3 1136 1231 38.24% 20.02% 41.74%-0.26 -78.3 7
1970-10-18 @ Pors Grenland W 6-036.3 1231 1136 41.74% 20.02% 38.24%+0.26 +78.3 11
1970-10-18 Hamarkameratene W 3-042.0 1457 1483 47.70% 20.03% 32.27%+0.14 +35.7 24
1970-10-18 @ Rosenborg L 0-342.0 1483 1457 32.27% 20.03% 47.70%-0.14 -35.7 23
1970-10-18 Brann D 1-159.1 1342 1443 37.49% 20.01% 42.50%-0.30 +0.4 21
1970-10-18 @ Sarpsborg D 1-159.1 1443 1342 42.50% 20.01% 37.49%+0.30 -0.4 23
1970-10-18 Skeid W 1-037.3 1490 1316 67.84% 19.47% 12.69%+1.34 +5.8 25
1970-10-18 @ Stromsgodset L 0-137.3 1316 1490 12.69% 19.47% 67.84%-1.34 -5.8 11
1970-10-18 Fredrikstad W 2-036.2 1412 1354 57.83% 19.90% 22.28%+0.65 +18.0 19
1970-10-18 @ Viking L 0-236.2 1354 1412 22.28% 19.90% 57.83%-0.65 -18.0 16

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1970-05-24 14.36% Pors Grenland 1269 1 @ Sarpsborg 1419 0
2 1970-06-26 15.61% Pors Grenland 1211 2 @ Fredrikstad 1343 1
3 1970-08-03 16.34% Skeid 1299 3 @ Sarpsborg 1422 0
4 1970-10-11 17.08% Skeid 1278 3 @ Fredrikstad 1392 1
5 1970-10-11 22.36% @ Hodd 1210 1 Viking 1433 0
6 1970-09-06 22.40% Brann 1403 1 @ Hamarkameratene 1460 0
7 1970-05-19 22.82% Sarpsborg 1398 1 @ Rosenborg 1451 0
8 1970-04-27 24.93% Sarpsborg 1351 2 @ Skeid 1384 1
9 1970-04-27 25.02% Hamarkameratene 1339 2 @ Viking 1372 0
10 1970-06-22 25.97% Viking 1357 2 @ Fredrikstad 1381 0
11 1970-05-08 26.40% Sarpsborg 1380 3 @ Fredrikstad 1400 2
12 1970-09-06 28.94% @ Fredrikstad 1329 2 Stromsgodset 1494 0
13 1970-05-25 30.75% Hamarkameratene 1398 3 @ Brann 1383 0
14 1970-06-11 31.40% Fredrikstad 1363 1 @ Skeid 1343 0
15 1970-06-14 32.18% Brann 1308 3 @ Pors Grenland 1282 0
16 1970-05-29 32.21% Stromsgodset 1421 2 @ Sarpsborg 1394 0
17 1970-09-20 32.59% @ Fredrikstad 1365 1 Rosenborg 1501 0
18 1970-08-17 33.58% @ Brann 1365 1 Stromsgodset 1494 0
19 1970-06-22 35.15% Sarpsborg 1405 1 @ Brann 1357 0
20 1970-05-10 37.32% @ Pors Grenland 1255 2 Skeid 1356 1
21 1970-05-16 37.53% @ Hamarkameratene 1360 4 Stromsgodset 1460 1
22 1970-05-10 37.98% @ Hodd 1280 1 Hamarkameratene 1376 0
23 1970-09-07 38.08% Viking 1402 3 @ Skeid 1333 0
24 1970-06-07 38.36% Sarpsborg 1360 2 @ Hodd 1289 0
25 1970-08-23 39.47% Fredrikstad 1314 2 @ Hodd 1235 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1970-10-18 78.32 Hodd 6 1231 41.74% @ Pors Grenland 0 1136 38.24% 20.02%
2 1970-08-03 65.03 Skeid 3 1299 16.34% @ Sarpsborg 0 1422 63.96% 19.69%
3 1970-05-25 50.61 Hamarkameratene 3 1398 30.75% @ Brann 0 1383 49.23% 20.02%
4 1970-06-14 49.29 Brann 3 1308 32.18% @ Pors Grenland 0 1282 47.79% 20.03%
5 1970-09-07 44.08 Viking 3 1402 38.08% @ Skeid 0 1333 41.89% 20.04%
6 1970-04-27 38.60 Hamarkameratene 2 1339 25.02% @ Viking 0 1372 55.03% 19.95%
7 1970-10-11 38.30 Skeid 3 1278 17.08% @ Fredrikstad 1 1392 63.20% 19.73%
8 1970-06-22 37.96 Viking 2 1357 25.97% @ Fredrikstad 0 1381 54.06% 19.97%
9 1970-05-16 37.58 @ Hamarkameratene 4 1360 37.53% Stromsgodset 1 1460 42.46% 20.02%
10 1970-09-06 36.03 @ Fredrikstad 2 1329 28.94% Stromsgodset 0 1494 51.15% 19.91%
11 1970-10-18 35.69 @ Rosenborg 3 1457 47.70% Hamarkameratene 0 1483 32.27% 20.03%
12 1970-05-29 33.92 Stromsgodset 2 1421 32.21% @ Sarpsborg 0 1394 47.76% 20.03%
13 1970-06-07 30.17 Sarpsborg 2 1360 38.36% @ Hodd 0 1289 41.60% 20.03%
14 1970-08-12 27.78 Rosenborg 2 1464 42.43% @ Skeid 0 1364 37.56% 20.02%
15 1970-04-27 27.19 Rosenborg 2 1416 43.44% @ Pors Grenland 0 1309 36.56% 20.01%
16 1970-05-03 27.11 @ Stromsgodset 7 1437 66.52% Pors Grenland 1 1282 13.93% 19.56%
17 1970-06-22 25.62 Stromsgodset 2 1450 46.03% @ Skeid 0 1325 33.98% 19.98%
18 1970-04-27 24.74 Stromsgodset 3 1412 41.10% @ Hodd 1 1322 38.88% 20.02%
19 1970-05-24 24.55 Pors Grenland 1 1269 14.36% @ Sarpsborg 0 1419 66.06% 19.59%
20 1970-10-11 23.50 @ Stromsgodset 2 1466 49.39% Rosenborg 0 1480 30.59% 20.02%
21 1970-06-26 22.66 Pors Grenland 2 1211 15.61% @ Fredrikstad 1 1343 64.74% 19.66%
22 1970-06-21 21.59 @ Hodd 2 1242 52.38% Pors Grenland 0 1232 27.63% 19.99%
23 1970-10-11 21.47 @ Hodd 1 1210 22.36% Viking 0 1433 57.91% 19.73%
24 1970-09-06 21.42 Brann 1 1403 22.40% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1460 57.70% 19.90%
25 1970-05-19 21.26 Sarpsborg 1 1398 22.82% @ Rosenborg 0 1451 57.27% 19.91%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1970-09-27 67.7 @ Viking 2 1434 47.12% Stromsgodset 2 1466 32.84% 20.03%
2 1970-05-24 65.0 @ Stromsgodset 2 1423 56.16% Fredrikstad 2 1380 23.90% 19.93%
3 1970-05-16 63.0 @ Fredrikstad 2 1382 60.67% Hodd 2 1296 19.51% 19.82%
4 1970-06-08 59.5 @ Hamarkameratene 1 1461 63.87% Skeid 1 1339 16.43% 19.70%
5 1970-05-08 59.3 Sarpsborg 3 1380 26.40% @ Fredrikstad 2 1400 53.62% 19.97%
6 1970-10-18 59.1 @ Sarpsborg 1 1342 37.49% Brann 1 1443 42.50% 20.01%
7 1970-05-19 58.0 @ Skeid 1 1341 45.77% Brann 1 1382 34.20% 20.04%
8 1970-09-27 58.0 @ Rosenborg 0 1483 56.60% Brann 0 1436 23.47% 19.92%
9 1970-08-17 57.3 @ Sarpsborg 1 1348 55.40% Fredrikstad 1 1311 24.66% 19.95%
10 1970-05-16 56.7 @ Pors Grenland 1 1270 43.89% Viking 1 1325 36.07% 20.04%
11 1970-05-10 55.6 @ Stromsgodset 0 1464 60.65% Brann 0 1378 19.53% 19.82%
12 1970-08-23 55.6 @ Sarpsborg 0 1345 30.23% Rosenborg 0 1500 49.84% 19.93%
13 1970-06-26 55.4 Pors Grenland 2 1211 15.61% @ Fredrikstad 1 1343 64.74% 19.66%
14 1970-04-27 54.4 Sarpsborg 2 1351 24.93% @ Skeid 1 1384 55.12% 19.95%
15 1970-08-12 54.1 @ Fredrikstad 0 1310 29.66% Hamarkameratene 0 1469 50.42% 19.92%
16 1970-05-03 54.0 @ Hamarkameratene 0 1378 48.50% Fredrikstad 0 1399 31.48% 20.02%
17 1970-05-09 54.0 @ Viking 0 1324 33.69% Rosenborg 0 1452 46.33% 19.98%
18 1970-04-27 53.7 @ Fredrikstad 0 1402 56.37% Brann 0 1357 23.70% 19.93%
19 1970-05-24 53.2 @ Hodd 0 1298 33.31% Rosenborg 0 1429 46.72% 19.97%
20 1970-10-11 52.5 Skeid 3 1278 17.08% @ Fredrikstad 1 1392 63.20% 19.73%
21 1970-08-23 52.4 @ Stromsgodset 4 1477 51.01% Hamarkameratene 2 1477 28.98% 20.01%
22 1970-09-06 52.4 Brann 1 1403 22.40% @ Hamarkameratene 0 1460 57.70% 19.90%
23 1970-05-19 51.8 Sarpsborg 1 1398 22.82% @ Rosenborg 0 1451 57.27% 19.91%
24 1970-05-24 51.3 Pors Grenland 1 1269 14.36% @ Sarpsborg 0 1419 66.06% 19.59%
25 1970-10-04 51.3 @ Hodd 0 1210 42.22% Skeid 0 1277 37.74% 20.04%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1970-09-20 27.6 @ Hamarkameratene 6 1439 73.42% Pors Grenland 0 1167 7.67% 18.91%
2 1970-08-23 28.1 @ Viking 4 1383 68.57% Pors Grenland 0 1198 12.01% 19.42%
3 1970-05-03 32.2 @ Stromsgodset 7 1437 66.52% Pors Grenland 1 1282 13.93% 19.56%
4 1970-10-11 32.2 @ Brann 1 1440 74.69% Pors Grenland 0 1139 6.59% 18.72%
5 1970-06-14 33.5 @ Viking 2 1341 60.19% Hodd 0 1259 19.97% 19.83%
6 1970-08-16 33.9 @ Hamarkameratene 4 1467 70.82% Hodd 1 1246 9.96% 19.22%
7 1970-09-06 33.9 @ Rosenborg 1 1498 73.70% Hodd 0 1220 7.43% 18.87%
8 1970-08-03 34.3 @ Rosenborg 1 1459 71.09% Pors Grenland 0 1233 9.72% 19.20%
9 1970-05-04 34.5 @ Brann 2 1360 58.30% Hodd 0 1297 21.81% 19.89%
10 1970-08-16 34.6 @ Skeid 4 1336 63.80% Pors Grenland 1 1215 16.50% 19.70%
11 1970-06-21 35.3 @ Hodd 2 1242 52.38% Pors Grenland 0 1232 27.63% 19.99%
12 1970-10-11 36.0 @ Hamarkameratene 2 1469 63.03% Sarpsborg 0 1357 17.24% 19.73%
13 1970-10-18 36.2 @ Viking 2 1412 57.83% Fredrikstad 0 1354 22.28% 19.90%
14 1970-10-18 36.3 Hodd 6 1231 41.74% @ Pors Grenland 0 1136 38.24% 20.02%
15 1970-08-24 36.6 @ Brann 2 1383 54.67% Skeid 0 1353 25.37% 19.96%
16 1970-09-27 36.7 Fredrikstad 1 1383 59.01% @ Pors Grenland 0 1149 21.30% 19.69%
17 1970-10-18 37.3 @ Stromsgodset 1 1490 67.84% Skeid 0 1316 12.69% 19.47%
18 1970-06-01 37.5 @ Rosenborg 2 1428 56.53% Fredrikstad 0 1382 23.54% 19.93%
19 1970-05-31 38.6 @ Skeid 1 1328 54.50% Hodd 0 1300 25.54% 19.96%
20 1970-06-07 38.8 @ Stromsgodset 1 1455 62.48% Viking 0 1348 17.77% 19.75%
21 1970-08-03 39.3 @ Brann 1 1340 53.47% Fredrikstad 0 1321 26.56% 19.98%
22 1970-09-07 39.5 Viking 3 1402 38.08% @ Skeid 0 1333 41.89% 20.04%
23 1970-05-04 39.7 @ Rosenborg 1 1443 59.84% Skeid 0 1365 20.31% 19.84%
24 1970-06-14 39.7 Brann 3 1308 32.18% @ Pors Grenland 0 1282 47.79% 20.03%
25 1970-04-27 39.8 Rosenborg 2 1416 43.44% @ Pors Grenland 0 1309 36.56% 20.01%