1970 First Division Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Stromsgodset

25 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Brann

5.18 points above expected

23 points · 17.82 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Pors Grenland

6.85 points below expected

7 points · 13.85 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Stromsgodset	18	11	3	4	25	36	21	+15	21.5	+3.50
2	Rosenborg	18	10	4	4	24	15	5	+10	21.3	+2.71
3	Hamarkameratene	18	10	3	5	23	31	15	+16	19.6	+3.39
4	Brann	18	9	5	4	23	18	11	+7	17.8	+5.18
5	Sarpsborg	18	9	3	6	21	21	21	0	17.8	+3.17
6	Viking	18	8	3	7	19	27	20	+7	18.3	+0.68
7	Fredrikstad	18	5	6	7	16	16	21	-5	18.4	-2.42
8	Hodd	18	4	3	11	11	20	27	-7	14.6	-3.57
9	Skeid	18	4	3	11	11	16	23	-7	16.8	-5.78
10	Pors Grenland	18	3	1	14	7	10	46	-36	13.8	-6.85

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Stromsgodset	1475	25	21.50	+3.50	87.1%	9	16	19	22	24	27	34
Rosenborg	1469	24	21.29	+2.71	81.0%	7	15	19	21	24	27	34
Hamarkameratene	1431	23	19.61	+3.39	85.8%	7	14	17	20	22	26	33
Viking	1415	19	18.32	+0.68	62.2%	5	12	16	18	21	24	32
Brann	1414	23	17.82	+5.18	94.4%	6	12	15	18	20	24	31
Fredrikstad	1356	16	18.42	-2.42	29.7%	6	12	16	18	21	24	31
Sarpsborg	1355	21	17.83	+3.17	84.6%	5	12	15	18	20	24	31
Skeid	1329	11	16.78	-5.78	7.1%	4	11	14	17	19	23	29
Hodd	1317	11	14.57	-3.57	19.8%	2	9	12	15	17	20	27
Pors Grenland	1150	7	13.85	-6.85	2.9%	2	8	11	14	16	20	27

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRA	FRE	HAM	HOD	PG	ROS	SAR	SKE	STR	VIK
Brann	—	1-1-0 2.64	1-0-1 2.64	2-0-0 3.22	2-0-0 3.40	0-1-1 2.19	0-1-1 2.89	1-1-0 2.90	1-1-0 2.11	1-0-1 2.68
Fredrikstad	0-1-1 2.93	—	0-2-0 2.56	1-1-0 3.34	1-0-1 3.77	1-0-1 2.24	0-1-1 2.82	1-0-1 3.11	1-1-0 2.18	0-0-2 2.75
Hamarkameratene	1-0-1 2.93	0-2-0 3.00	—	1-0-1 3.48	2-0-0 3.66	1-0-1 2.62	1-0-1 3.17	1-1-0 3.46	1-0-1 2.34	2-0-0 2.79
Hodd	0-0-2 2.35	0-1-1 2.23	1-0-1 2.10	—	2-0-0 3.00	0-1-1 1.77	0-0-2 2.24	0-1-1 2.43	0-0-2 1.99	1-0-1 1.91
Pors Grenland	0-0-2 2.19	1-0-1 1.80	0-0-2 1.93	0-0-2 2.57	—	0-0-2 2.03	1-0-1 2.02	1-0-1 2.27	0-0-2 1.74	0-1-1 2.28
Rosenborg	1-1-0 3.38	1-0-1 3.33	1-0-1 2.94	1-1-0 3.82	2-0-0 3.55	—	0-1-1 3.44	2-0-0 3.33	1-0-1 2.80	1-1-0 3.45
Sarpsborg	1-1-0 2.67	1-1-0 2.75	1-0-1 2.40	2-0-0 3.33	1-0-1 3.55	1-1-0 2.13	—	1-0-1 2.92	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 2.80
Skeid	0-1-1 2.66	1-0-1 2.46	0-1-1 2.11	1-1-0 3.14	1-0-1 3.30	0-0-2 2.24	1-0-1 2.65	—	0-0-2 2.00	0-0-2 2.65
Stromsgodset	0-1-1 3.46	0-1-1 3.39	1-0-1 3.22	2-0-0 3.59	2-0-0 3.84	1-0-1 2.76	2-0-0 3.21	2-0-0 3.58	—	1-1-0 3.22
Viking	1-0-1 2.89	2-0-0 2.82	0-0-2 2.78	1-0-1 3.66	1-1-0 3.29	0-1-1 2.12	1-0-1 2.77	2-0-0 2.92	0-1-1 2.35	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	10.00%	13.89%	8.89%	2.78%	0.56%	1.11%	37.22%
1	13.89%	5.56%	6.67%	1.67%	1.67%	0.56%	30.00%
2	8.89%	6.67%	3.33%	1.11%	1.11%	—	21.11%
3	2.78%	1.67%	1.11%	—	0.56%	—	6.11%
4	0.56%	1.67%	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	3.89%
5+	1.11%	0.56%	—	—	—	—	1.67%
Total	37.22%	30.00%	21.11%	6.11%	3.89%	1.67%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	1.28
StdDev allowed	1.28
Mean total goals/game	2.33
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.086
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
1	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
2	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	55.56%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Brann — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.00
Mean allowed	0.61
StdDev scored	0.91
StdDev allowed	0.85
Mean total goals/game	1.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.229
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	5.56%	16.67%	—	—	—	38.89%
1	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	16.67%	33.33%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Fredrikstad — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.89
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	0.83
StdDev allowed	1.10
Mean total goals/game	2.06
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.215
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	16.67%	—	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
1	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	22.22%
2	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	50.00%	33.33%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Hamarkameratene — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.72
Mean allowed	0.83
StdDev scored	1.81
StdDev allowed	1.15
Mean total goals/game	2.56
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.024
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	38.89%
1	11.11%	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	11.11%	38.89%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Hodd — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.11
Mean allowed	1.50
StdDev scored	1.49
StdDev allowed	1.34
Mean total goals/game	2.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.029
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	55.56%
1	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	38.89%	16.67%	11.11%	11.11%	16.67%	100%

Pors Grenland — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.56
Mean allowed	2.56
StdDev scored	0.70
StdDev allowed	2.06
Mean total goals/game	3.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.184
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	44.44%
1	33.33%	—	—	—	—	—	33.33%
2	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
3	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	77.78%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	100%

Rosenborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.83
Mean allowed	0.28
StdDev scored	0.92
StdDev allowed	0.57
Mean total goals/game	1.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.462
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	5.56%	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	—	33.33%
3	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.78%	38.89%	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Sarpsborg — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.17
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	0.92
StdDev allowed	0.99
Mean total goals/game	2.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.032
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	50.00%
1	5.56%	11.11%	16.67%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	16.67%	44.44%	33.33%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Skeid — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.89
Mean allowed	1.28
StdDev scored	1.23
StdDev allowed	0.83
Mean total goals/game	2.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.315
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	33.33%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	—	100%

Stromsgodset — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.00
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	1.78
StdDev allowed	1.15
Mean total goals/game	3.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.143
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
1	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
2	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
3	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	33.33%	27.78%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Viking — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	1.11
StdDev scored	1.20
StdDev allowed	1.08
Mean total goals/game	2.61
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.136
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Brann	23	17.8	+5.18
2	Stromsgodset	25	21.5	+3.50
3	Hamarkameratene	23	19.6	+3.39
4	Sarpsborg	21	17.8	+3.17
5	Rosenborg	24	21.3	+2.71

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Pors Grenland	7	13.8	-6.85
2	Skeid	11	16.8	-5.78
3	Hodd	11	14.6	-3.57
4	Fredrikstad	16	18.4	-2.42
5	Viking	19	18.3	+0.68

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brann	6	Aug 3 – Sep 20	1 in 259
2	Sarpsborg	4	Apr 27 – May 19	1 in 140
3	Fredrikstad	4	Aug 23 – Sep 27	1 in 41
4	Hamarkameratene	3	May 16 – May 31	1 in 23
5	Hodd	2	Oct 11 – Oct 18	1 in 10

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Pors Grenland	9	Aug 3 – Oct 18	1 in 198
2	Fredrikstad	3	Jun 22 – Aug 3	1 in 43
3	Hodd	6	Aug 2 – Sep 27	1 in 38
4	Skeid	3	Apr 27 – May 10	1 in 17
5	Brann	3	May 25 – Jun 8	1 in 17

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brann	9	Aug 3 – Oct 18	1 in 80
2	Fredrikstad	6	Aug 12 – Sep 27	1 in 24
3	Sarpsborg	4	Apr 27 – May 19	1 in 14
4	Hamarkameratene	4	May 16 – Jun 8	1 in 7
5	Hodd	3	May 10 – May 24	1 in 7

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Fredrikstad	6	Apr 27 – Jun 1	1 in 29
2	Skeid	5	Apr 27 – May 25	1 in 12
3	Pors Grenland	9	Aug 3 – Oct 18	1 in 11
4	Sarpsborg	4	Aug 3 – Aug 23	1 in 10
5	Hodd	7	Aug 2 – Oct 4	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Stromsgodset	30.75%	20.59%	14.38%	10.97%	8.25%	6.06%	4.04%	3.09%	1.28%	0.59%
Rosenborg	26.68%	20.43%	15.26%	11.88%	8.47%	6.75%	4.58%	3.22%	1.92%	0.81%
Hamarkameratene	15.34%	15.49%	15.12%	13.06%	11.47%	9.29%	7.59%	6.46%	4.12%	2.06%
Brann	5.49%	8.54%	10.17%	12.22%	12.76%	12.71%	12.49%	11.32%	8.98%	5.32%
Sarpsborg	4.90%	8.06%	9.92%	11.20%	13.23%	12.93%	12.76%	11.48%	9.28%	6.24%
Viking	6.81%	10.19%	11.98%	12.88%	12.68%	12.60%	11.66%	9.59%	7.15%	4.46%
Fredrikstad	6.40%	8.97%	11.76%	11.44%	12.51%	12.87%	12.33%	10.99%	7.98%	4.75%
Hodd	0.70%	1.71%	2.51%	4.50%	6.41%	8.44%	11.14%	15.54%	22.51%	26.54%
Skeid	2.64%	5.02%	6.87%	8.92%	10.20%	11.80%	14.14%	14.67%	15.02%	10.72%
Pors Grenland	0.29%	1.00%	2.03%	2.93%	4.02%	6.55%	9.27%	13.64%	21.76%	38.51%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Stromsgodset	98.1%	1.9%
Rosenborg	97.3%	2.7%
Hamarkameratene	93.8%	6.2%
Viking	88.4%	11.6%
Fredrikstad	87.3%	12.7%
Brann	85.7%	14.3%
Sarpsborg	84.5%	15.5%
Skeid	74.3%	25.7%
Hodd	50.9%	49.0%
Pors Grenland	39.7%	60.3%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1970-04-27	Brann	D 0-0	1400	1360	55.0%	21.5%	23.5%	-1.9	1
1970-04-27	@ Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1360	1400	23.5%	21.5%	55.0%	+1.9	1
1970-04-27	Stromsgodset	L 1-3	1329	1411	39.2%	21.8%	39.0%	-15.5	0
1970-04-27	@ Hodd	W 3-1	1411	1329	39.0%	21.8%	39.2%	+15.5	3
1970-04-27	Rosenborg	L 0-2	1341	1415	40.3%	21.9%	37.8%	-18.3	0
1970-04-27	@ Pors Grenland	W 2-0	1415	1341	37.8%	21.9%	40.3%	+18.3	3
1970-04-27	Sarpsborg	L 1-2	1383	1355	53.6%	21.6%	24.8%	-11.7	0
1970-04-27	@ Skeid	W 2-1	1355	1383	24.8%	21.6%	53.6%	+11.7	3
1970-04-27	Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	1373	1343	53.8%	21.6%	24.6%	-23.5	0
1970-04-27	@ Viking	W 2-0	1343	1373	24.6%	21.6%	53.8%	+23.5	3
1970-05-03	Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1367	1398	46.2%	21.9%	32.0%	-0.8	4
1970-05-03	@ Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	1398	1367	32.0%	21.9%	46.2%	+0.8	2
1970-05-03	Viking	W 2-1	1367	1350	52.3%	21.7%	26.1%	+6.4	6
1970-05-03	@ Sarpsborg	L 1-2	1350	1367	26.1%	21.7%	52.3%	-6.4	0
1970-05-03	Pors Grenland	W 7-1	1426	1323	61.5%	20.9%	17.5%	+20.9	6
1970-05-03	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-7	1323	1426	17.5%	20.9%	61.5%	-20.9	0
1970-05-04	Hodd	W 2-0	1361	1314	55.8%	21.5%	22.7%	+11.5	4
1970-05-04	@ Brann	L 0-2	1314	1361	22.7%	21.5%	55.8%	-11.5	0
1970-05-04	Skeid	W 1-0	1434	1372	57.3%	21.4%	21.3%	+5.8	6
1970-05-04	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	1372	1434	21.3%	21.4%	57.3%	-5.8	0
1970-05-08	Sarpsborg	L 2-3	1399	1373	53.3%	21.6%	25.1%	-11.1	2
1970-05-08	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-2	1373	1399	25.1%	21.6%	53.3%	+11.0	9
1970-05-09	Rosenborg	D 0-0	1343	1439	37.2%	21.8%	41.0%	+0.2	1
1970-05-09	@ Viking	D 0-0	1439	1343	41.0%	21.8%	37.2%	-0.2	7
1970-05-10	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	1302	1366	41.8%	21.9%	36.4%	+9.0	3
1970-05-10	@ Hodd	L 0-1	1366	1302	36.4%	21.9%	41.8%	-9.0	4
1970-05-10	Skeid	W 2-1	1302	1366	41.7%	21.9%	36.4%	+8.5	3
1970-05-10	@ Pors Grenland	L 1-2	1366	1302	36.4%	21.9%	41.7%	-8.5	0
1970-05-10	Brann	D 0-0	1447	1373	58.7%	21.2%	20.1%	-2.3	7
1970-05-10	@ Stromsgodset	D 0-0	1373	1447	20.1%	21.2%	58.7%	+2.3	5
1970-05-16	Hodd	D 2-2	1388	1311	58.9%	21.2%	19.9%	-1.6	3
1970-05-16	@ Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1311	1388	19.9%	21.2%	58.9%	+1.6	4
1970-05-16	Stromsgodset	W 4-1	1357	1445	38.3%	21.8%	39.9%	+22.2	7
1970-05-16	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-4	1445	1357	39.9%	21.8%	38.3%	-22.2	7
1970-05-16	Viking	D 1-1	1310	1343	46.0%	21.9%	32.2%	-0.7	4
1970-05-16	@ Pors Grenland	D 1-1	1343	1310	32.2%	21.9%	46.0%	+0.7	2
1970-05-19	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1439	1384	56.6%	21.4%	22.0%	-13.1	7
1970-05-19	@ Rosenborg	W 1-0	1384	1439	22.0%	21.4%	56.6%	+13.1	12
1970-05-19	Brann	D 1-1	1358	1375	48.0%	21.8%	30.2%	-0.9	1
1970-05-19	@ Skeid	D 1-1	1375	1358	30.2%	21.8%	48.0%	+0.9	6
1970-05-24	Rosenborg	D 0-0	1313	1426	34.8%	21.7%	43.5%	+0.5	5
1970-05-24	@ Hodd	D 0-0	1426	1313	43.5%	21.7%	34.8%	-0.5	8
1970-05-24	Pors Grenland	L 0-1	1397	1310	60.0%	21.1%	18.9%	-13.8	12
1970-05-24	@ Sarpsborg	W 1-0	1310	1397	18.9%	21.1%	60.0%	+13.8	7
1970-05-24	Fredrikstad	D 2-2	1423	1386	54.6%	21.6%	23.9%	-1.2	8
1970-05-24	@ Stromsgodset	D 2-2	1386	1423	23.9%	21.6%	54.6%	+1.2	4
1970-05-25	Hamarkameratene	L 0-3	1376	1379	49.8%	21.8%	28.4%	-31.8	6
1970-05-25	@ Brann	W 3-0	1379	1376	28.4%	21.8%	49.8%	+31.8	10
1970-05-25	Skeid	W 2-1	1344	1357	48.6%	21.8%	29.6%	+7.2	5
1970-05-25	@ Viking	L 1-2	1357	1344	29.6%	21.8%	48.6%	-7.2	1
1970-05-29	Stromsgodset	L 0-2	1383	1422	45.2%	21.9%	32.9%	-20.2	12
1970-05-29	@ Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1422	1383	32.9%	21.9%	45.2%	+20.2	11
1970-05-31	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1323	1411	38.4%	21.8%	39.8%	-9.3	7
1970-05-31	@ Pors Grenland	W 1-0	1411	1323	39.8%	21.8%	38.4%	+9.3	13
1970-05-31	Hodd	W 1-0	1349	1313	54.5%	21.6%	23.9%	+6.4	4
1970-05-31	@ Skeid	L 0-1	1313	1349	23.9%	21.6%	54.5%	-6.4	5
1970-06-01	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1426	1387	54.7%	21.6%	23.7%	+11.9	11
1970-06-01	@ Rosenborg	L 0-2	1387	1426	23.7%	21.6%	54.7%	-11.9	4
1970-06-01	Brann	W 2-1	1351	1344	51.1%	21.7%	27.2%	+6.7	8
1970-06-01	@ Viking	L 1-2	1344	1351	27.2%	21.7%	51.1%	-6.7	6
1970-06-07	Sarpsborg	L 0-2	1307	1363	42.8%	21.9%	35.4%	-19.2	5
1970-06-07	@ Hodd	W 2-0	1363	1307	35.4%	21.9%	42.8%	+19.2	15
1970-06-07	Viking	W 1-0	1442	1358	59.6%	21.2%	19.2%	+5.3	14
1970-06-07	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-1	1358	1442	19.2%	21.2%	59.6%	-5.3	8
1970-06-08	Rosenborg	L 0-1	1338	1437	36.6%	21.8%	41.5%	-9.0	6
1970-06-08	@ Brann	W 1-0	1437	1338	41.5%	21.8%	36.6%	+9.0	14
1970-06-08	Skeid	D 1-1	1420	1356	57.6%	21.3%	21.0%	-2.0	14
1970-06-08	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	1356	1420	21.0%	21.3%	57.6%	+2.0	5
1970-06-11	Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1358	1376	47.9%	21.8%	30.2%	-11.2	5
1970-06-11	@ Skeid	W 1-0	1376	1358	30.2%	21.8%	47.9%	+11.2	7
1970-06-12	Stromsgodset	W 1-0	1446	1447	50.1%	21.8%	28.1%	+7.3	17
1970-06-12	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	1447	1446	28.1%	21.8%	50.1%	-7.3	14
1970-06-12	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	1382	1418	45.6%	21.9%	32.6%	+8.2	18
1970-06-12	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1418	1382	32.6%	21.9%	45.6%	-8.2	14
1970-06-14	Brann	L 0-3	1314	1329	48.4%	21.8%	29.8%	-31.0	7
1970-06-14	@ Pors Grenland	W 3-0	1329	1314	29.8%	21.8%	48.4%	+31.0	9
1970-06-14	Hodd	W 2-0	1353	1288	57.7%	21.3%	21.0%	+10.7	11
1970-06-14	@ Viking	L 0-2	1288	1353	21.0%	21.3%	57.7%	-10.7	5
1970-06-21	Rosenborg	W 1-0	1410	1454	44.5%	21.9%	33.6%	+8.4	17
1970-06-21	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1454	1410	33.6%	21.9%	44.5%	-8.4	17
1970-06-21	Pors Grenland	W 2-0	1277	1283	49.4%	21.8%	28.8%	+14.0	8
1970-06-21	@ Hodd	L 0-2	1283	1277	28.8%	21.8%	49.4%	-14.0	7
1970-06-22	Sarpsborg	L 0-1	1360	1391	46.2%	21.9%	31.9%	-10.9	9
1970-06-22	@ Brann	W 1-0	1391	1360	31.9%	21.9%	46.2%	+10.9	21
1970-06-22	Viking	L 0-2	1387	1363	53.0%	21.6%	25.3%	-23.2	7
1970-06-22	@ Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1363	1387	25.3%	21.6%	53.0%	+23.2	14
1970-06-22	Stromsgodset	L 0-2	1347	1440	37.6%	21.8%	40.6%	-17.3	5
1970-06-22	@ Skeid	W 2-0	1440	1347	40.6%	21.8%	37.6%	+17.3	17
1970-06-26	Pors Grenland	L 1-2	1364	1269	60.7%	21.0%	18.3%	-13.1	7
1970-06-26	@ Fredrikstad	W 2-1	1269	1364	18.3%	21.0%	60.7%	+13.1	10
1970-08-02	Viking	W 4-2	1419	1387	54.0%	21.6%	24.4%	+9.4	20
1970-08-02	@ Hamarkameratene	L 2-4	1387	1419	24.4%	21.6%	54.0%	-9.4	14
1970-08-02	Hodd	W 4-3	1457	1291	66.9%	20.1%	13.0%	+3.2	20
1970-08-02	@ Stromsgodset	L 3-4	1291	1457	13.0%	20.1%	66.9%	-3.2	8
1970-08-03	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	1349	1350	50.0%	21.8%	28.2%	+7.3	12
1970-08-03	@ Brann	L 0-1	1350	1349	28.2%	21.8%	50.0%	-7.3	7
1970-08-03	Pors Grenland	W 1-0	1445	1282	66.6%	20.2%	13.2%	+3.7	20
1970-08-03	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	1282	1445	13.2%	20.2%	66.6%	-3.7	10
1970-08-03	Skeid	L 0-3	1402	1329	58.4%	21.3%	20.3%	-36.8	21
1970-08-03	@ Sarpsborg	W 3-0	1329	1402	20.3%	21.3%	58.4%	+36.8	8
1970-08-12	Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	1343	1428	38.8%	21.8%	39.4%	+0.0	8
1970-08-12	@ Fredrikstad	D 0-0	1428	1343	39.4%	21.8%	38.8%	-0.0	21
1970-08-12	Brann	L 1-2	1288	1356	41.1%	21.9%	37.0%	-9.3	8
1970-08-12	@ Hodd	W 2-1	1356	1288	37.0%	21.9%	41.1%	+9.3	15
1970-08-12	Stromsgodset	L 1-3	1279	1460	26.3%	21.3%	52.4%	-11.2	10
1970-08-12	@ Pors Grenland	W 3-1	1460	1279	52.4%	21.3%	26.3%	+11.2	23
1970-08-12	Rosenborg	L 0-2	1366	1449	39.0%	21.8%	39.1%	-17.9	8
1970-08-12	@ Skeid	W 2-0	1449	1366	39.1%	21.8%	39.0%	+17.9	23
1970-08-12	Sarpsborg	W 3-2	1377	1365	51.7%	21.7%	26.6%	+6.2	17
1970-08-12	@ Viking	L 2-3	1365	1377	26.6%	21.7%	51.7%	-6.2	21
1970-08-16	Hodd	W 4-1	1428	1278	65.6%	20.3%	14.1%	+9.1	24
1970-08-16	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-4	1278	1428	14.1%	20.3%	65.6%	-9.1	8
1970-08-16	Pors Grenland	W 4-1	1348	1267	59.3%	21.2%	19.5%	+12.3	11
1970-08-16	@ Skeid	L 1-4	1267	1348	19.5%	21.2%	59.3%	-12.3	10
1970-08-17	Stromsgodset	W 1-0	1365	1471	35.8%	21.8%	42.4%	+10.1	18
1970-08-17	@ Brann	L 0-1	1471	1365	42.4%	21.8%	35.8%	-10.1	23
1970-08-17	Viking	W 1-0	1467	1383	59.6%	21.2%	19.3%	+5.3	26
1970-08-17	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	1383	1467	19.3%	21.2%	59.6%	-5.3	17
1970-08-17	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	1358	1343	52.1%	21.7%	26.2%	-1.4	22
1970-08-17	@ Sarpsborg	D 1-1	1343	1358	26.2%	21.7%	52.1%	+1.3	9
1970-08-23	Fredrikstad	L 1-2	1269	1345	40.1%	21.9%	38.0%	-9.1	8
1970-08-23	@ Hodd	W 2-1	1345	1269	38.0%	21.9%	40.1%	+9.1	12
1970-08-23	Rosenborg	D 0-0	1357	1472	34.6%	21.7%	43.7%	+0.5	23
1970-08-23	@ Sarpsborg	D 0-0	1472	1357	43.7%	21.7%	34.6%	-0.5	27
1970-08-23	Hamarkameratene	W 4-2	1461	1437	53.1%	21.6%	25.2%	+9.7	26
1970-08-23	@ Stromsgodset	L 2-4	1437	1461	25.2%	21.6%	53.1%	-9.7	24
1970-08-23	Pors Grenland	W 4-0	1378	1255	63.3%	20.7%	16.0%	+15.9	20
1970-08-23	@ Viking	L 0-4	1255	1378	16.0%	20.7%	63.3%	-15.9	10
1970-08-24	Skeid	W 2-0	1375	1360	52.0%	21.7%	26.3%	+13.0	21
1970-08-24	@ Brann	L 0-2	1360	1375	26.3%	21.7%	52.0%	-13.0	11
1970-09-06	Stromsgodset	W 2-0	1354	1471	34.3%	21.7%	44.0%	+19.7	15
1970-09-06	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-2	1471	1354	44.0%	21.7%	34.3%	-19.7	26
1970-09-06	Brann	L 0-1	1427	1388	54.8%	21.5%	23.6%	-12.7	24
1970-09-06	@ Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	1388	1427	23.6%	21.5%	54.8%	+12.7	24
1970-09-06	Sarpsborg	L 1-2	1239	1358	34.1%	21.7%	44.2%	-8.0	10
1970-09-06	@ Pors Grenland	W 2-1	1358	1239	44.2%	21.7%	34.1%	+8.0	26
1970-09-06	Hodd	W 1-0	1472	1260	70.2%	19.4%	10.4%	+2.9	30
1970-09-06	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	1260	1472	10.4%	19.4%	70.2%	-2.9	8
1970-09-07	Viking	L 0-3	1347	1394	44.1%	21.9%	34.0%	-28.7	11
1970-09-07	@ Skeid	W 3-0	1394	1347	34.0%	21.9%	44.1%	+28.7	23
1970-09-20	Viking	W 2-1	1401	1423	47.5%	21.8%	30.7%	+7.4	27
1970-09-20	@ Brann	L 1-2	1423	1401	30.7%	21.8%	47.5%	-7.4	23
1970-09-20	Rosenborg	W 1-0	1373	1475	36.5%	21.8%	41.8%	+10.0	18
1970-09-20	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1475	1373	41.8%	21.8%	36.5%	-10.0	30
1970-09-20	Pors Grenland	W 6-0	1415	1231	68.2%	19.8%	12.0%	+17.6	27
1970-09-20	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-6	1231	1415	12.0%	19.8%	68.2%	-17.6	10
1970-09-20	Sarpsborg	W 2-1	1451	1366	59.8%	21.1%	19.1%	+4.9	29
1970-09-20	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-2	1366	1451	19.1%	21.1%	59.8%	-4.9	26
1970-09-27	Fredrikstad	L 0-1	1213	1383	27.7%	21.4%	50.9%	-7.2	10
1970-09-27	@ Pors Grenland	W 1-0	1383	1213	50.9%	21.4%	27.7%	+7.2	21
1970-09-27	Brann	D 0-0	1465	1408	56.7%	21.4%	21.9%	-2.1	31
1970-09-27	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	1408	1465	21.9%	21.4%	56.7%	+2.1	28
1970-09-27	Hodd	W 2-1	1361	1257	61.5%	20.9%	17.5%	+4.6	29
1970-09-27	@ Sarpsborg	L 1-2	1257	1361	17.5%	20.9%	61.5%	-4.6	8
1970-09-27	Stromsgodset	D 2-2	1415	1456	44.9%	21.9%	33.3%	-0.4	24
1970-09-27	@ Viking	D 2-2	1456	1415	33.3%	21.9%	44.9%	+0.4	30
1970-09-28	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	1319	1432	34.8%	21.7%	43.5%	-8.6	11
1970-09-28	@ Skeid	W 1-0	1432	1319	43.5%	21.7%	34.8%	+8.6	30
1970-10-04	Skeid	D 0-0	1253	1310	42.6%	21.9%	35.5%	-0.4	9
1970-10-04	@ Hodd	D 0-0	1310	1253	35.5%	21.9%	42.6%	+0.4	12
1970-10-11	Pors Grenland	W 1-0	1411	1206	69.7%	19.5%	10.8%	+3.0	31
1970-10-11	@ Brann	L 0-1	1206	1411	10.8%	19.5%	69.7%	-3.0	10
1970-10-11	Skeid	L 1-3	1390	1311	59.2%	21.2%	19.6%	-22.2	21
1970-10-11	@ Fredrikstad	W 3-1	1311	1390	19.6%	21.2%	59.2%	+22.2	15
1970-10-11	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	1441	1365	58.8%	21.2%	20.0%	+10.3	33
1970-10-11	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	1365	1441	20.0%	21.2%	58.8%	-10.3	29
1970-10-11	Viking	W 1-0	1252	1415	28.5%	21.4%	50.0%	+11.6	12
1970-10-11	@ Hodd	L 0-1	1415	1252	50.0%	21.4%	28.5%	-11.6	24
1970-10-11	Rosenborg	W 2-0	1457	1463	49.5%	21.8%	28.7%	+14.0	33
1970-10-11	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-2	1463	1457	28.7%	21.8%	49.5%	-14.0	31
1970-10-18	Hodd	L 0-6	1203	1264	42.2%	21.9%	35.9%	-52.8	10
1970-10-18	@ Pors Grenland	W 6-0	1264	1203	35.9%	21.9%	42.2%	+52.8	15
1970-10-18	Hamarkameratene	W 3-0	1449	1451	49.9%	21.8%	28.4%	+20.1	34
1970-10-18	@ Rosenborg	L 0-3	1451	1449	28.4%	21.8%	49.9%	-20.1	33
1970-10-18	Brann	D 1-1	1355	1414	42.5%	21.9%	35.7%	-0.3	30
1970-10-18	@ Sarpsborg	D 1-1	1414	1355	35.7%	21.9%	42.5%	+0.3	32
1970-10-18	Skeid	W 1-0	1471	1333	64.6%	20.5%	14.9%	+4.2	36
1970-10-18	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-1	1333	1471	14.9%	20.5%	64.6%	-4.2	15
1970-10-18	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	1403	1368	54.4%	21.6%	24.1%	+12.0	27
1970-10-18	@ Viking	L 0-2	1368	1403	24.1%	21.6%	54.4%	-12.1	21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1970-06-26	18.31%	Pors Grenland	1269	2	@ Fredrikstad	1364	1
2	1970-05-24	18.92%	Pors Grenland	1310	1	@ Sarpsborg	1397	0
3	1970-10-11	19.59%	Skeid	1311	3	@ Fredrikstad	1390	1
4	1970-08-03	20.30%	Skeid	1329	3	@ Sarpsborg	1402	0
5	1970-05-19	21.97%	Sarpsborg	1384	1	@ Rosenborg	1439	0
6	1970-09-06	23.63%	Brann	1388	1	@ Hamarkameratene	1427	0
7	1970-04-27	24.61%	Hamarkameratene	1343	2	@ Viking	1373	0
8	1970-04-27	24.75%	Sarpsborg	1355	2	@ Skeid	1383	1
9	1970-05-08	25.05%	Sarpsborg	1373	3	@ Fredrikstad	1399	2
10	1970-06-22	25.31%	Viking	1363	2	@ Fredrikstad	1387	0
11	1970-05-25	28.41%	Hamarkameratene	1379	3	@ Brann	1376	0
12	1970-10-11	28.52%	@ Hodd	1252	1	Viking	1415	0
13	1970-06-14	29.81%	Brann	1329	3	@ Pors Grenland	1314	0
14	1970-06-11	30.23%	Fredrikstad	1376	1	@ Skeid	1358	0
15	1970-06-22	31.94%	Sarpsborg	1391	1	@ Brann	1360	0
16	1970-05-29	32.89%	Stromsgodset	1422	2	@ Sarpsborg	1383	0
17	1970-09-07	33.99%	Viking	1394	3	@ Skeid	1347	0
18	1970-09-06	34.27%	@ Fredrikstad	1354	2	Stromsgodset	1471	0
19	1970-06-07	35.36%	Sarpsborg	1363	2	@ Hodd	1307	0
20	1970-08-17	35.79%	@ Brann	1365	1	Stromsgodset	1471	0
21	1970-10-18	35.93%	Hodd	1264	6	@ Pors Grenland	1203	0
22	1970-09-20	36.46%	@ Fredrikstad	1373	1	Rosenborg	1475	0
23	1970-08-12	37.03%	Brann	1356	2	@ Hodd	1288	1
24	1970-04-27	37.84%	Rosenborg	1415	2	@ Pors Grenland	1341	0
25	1970-08-23	38.02%	Fredrikstad	1345	2	@ Hodd	1269	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1970-10-18	52.84	Hodd	6	1264	35.93%	@ Pors Grenland	0	1203	42.20%
2	1970-08-03	36.85	Skeid	3	1329	20.30%	@ Sarpsborg	0	1402	58.44%
3	1970-05-25	31.83	Hamarkameratene	3	1379	28.41%	@ Brann	0	1376	49.82%
4	1970-06-14	31.02	Brann	3	1329	29.81%	@ Pors Grenland	0	1314	48.38%
5	1970-09-07	28.68	Viking	3	1394	33.99%	@ Skeid	0	1347	44.14%
6	1970-04-27	23.49	Hamarkameratene	2	1343	24.61%	@ Viking	0	1373	53.79%
7	1970-06-22	23.19	Viking	2	1363	25.31%	@ Fredrikstad	0	1387	53.05%
8	1970-05-16	22.25	@ Hamarkameratene	4	1357	38.30%	Stromsgodset	1	1445	39.87%
9	1970-10-11	22.25	Skeid	3	1311	19.59%	@ Fredrikstad	1	1390	59.21%
10	1970-05-03	20.90	@ Stromsgodset	7	1426	61.52%	Pors Grenland	1	1323	17.54%
11	1970-05-29	20.16	Stromsgodset	2	1422	32.89%	@ Sarpsborg	0	1383	45.25%
12	1970-10-18	20.11	@ Rosenborg	3	1449	49.87%	Hamarkameratene	0	1451	28.36%
13	1970-09-06	19.67	@ Fredrikstad	2	1354	34.27%	Stromsgodset	0	1471	44.01%
14	1970-06-07	19.24	Sarpsborg	2	1363	35.36%	@ Hodd	0	1307	42.77%
15	1970-04-27	18.33	Rosenborg	2	1415	37.84%	@ Pors Grenland	0	1341	40.30%
16	1970-08-12	17.87	Rosenborg	2	1449	39.13%	@ Skeid	0	1366	39.03%
17	1970-09-20	17.65	@ Hamarkameratene	6	1415	68.21%	Pors Grenland	0	1231	11.97%
18	1970-06-22	17.34	Stromsgodset	2	1440	40.59%	@ Skeid	0	1347	37.59%
19	1970-08-23	15.91	@ Viking	4	1378	63.29%	Pors Grenland	0	1255	16.00%
20	1970-04-27	15.52	Stromsgodset	3	1411	38.96%	@ Hodd	1	1329	39.19%
21	1970-06-21	14.02	@ Hodd	2	1277	49.42%	Pors Grenland	0	1283	28.80%
22	1970-10-11	14.00	@ Stromsgodset	2	1457	49.48%	Rosenborg	0	1463	28.74%
23	1970-05-24	13.79	Pors Grenland	1	1310	18.92%	@ Sarpsborg	0	1397	59.96%
24	1970-06-26	13.14	Pors Grenland	2	1269	18.31%	@ Fredrikstad	1	1364	60.65%
25	1970-05-19	13.06	Sarpsborg	1	1384	21.97%	@ Rosenborg	0	1439	56.61%