1971 First Division Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Rosenborg

24 points · 3rd Title

Last Title: 1969

Relegated

Frigg Oslo

9 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Lyn Oslo

5.28 points above expected

23 points · 17.72 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Brann

4.15 points below expected

11 points · 15.15 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Rosenborg Champion	18	9	6	3	24	25	11	+14	22.21	+1.79
2	Lyn Oslo	18	9	5	4	23	28	17	+11	17.72	+5.28
3	Viking	18	9	4	5	22	41	20	+21	22.01	-0.01
4	Fredrikstad	18	8	6	4	22	32	23	+9	18.15	+3.85
5	Stromsgodset	18	7	7	4	21	28	21	+7	19.86	+1.14
6	Hamarkameratene	18	7	7	4	21	19	15	+4	20.23	+0.77
7	Sarpsborg	18	6	4	8	16	32	27	+5	18.42	-2.42
8	Hodd	18	3	5	10	11	17	32	-15	14.11	-3.11
9	Brann	18	3	5	10	11	14	31	-17	15.15	-4.15
10	Frigg Oslo Relegated	18	4	1	13	9	16	55	-39	12.14	-3.14

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Lyn Oslo	23	17.72	+5.28
2	Fredrikstad	22	18.15	+3.85
3	Rosenborg	24	22.21	+1.79
4	Stromsgodset	21	19.86	+1.14
5	Hamarkameratene	21	20.23	+0.77

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Brann	11	15.15	-4.15
2	Frigg Oslo	9	12.14	-3.14
3	Hodd	11	14.11	-3.11
4	Sarpsborg	16	18.42	-2.42
5	Viking	22	22.01	-0.01

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Viking	5	May 3 – May 31	1 in 57
2	Frigg Oslo	2	Jun 13 – Jun 20	1 in 21
3	Hodd	2	Oct 6 – Oct 10	1 in 18
4	Lyn Oslo	3	Sep 5 – Sep 19	1 in 16
5	Fredrikstad	3	May 31 – Jun 14	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hodd	4	May 23 – Jun 13	1 in 58
2	Sarpsborg	3	Sep 12 – Oct 6	1 in 27
3	Rosenborg	2	May 31 – Jun 6	1 in 24
4	Frigg Oslo	4	Sep 22 – Oct 17	1 in 20
5	Brann	3	Jun 14 – Aug 1	1 in 16

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lyn Oslo	12	May 23 – Oct 6	1 in 297
2	Rosenborg	11	Jun 13 – Oct 17	1 in 23
3	Hamarkameratene	7	Apr 25 – Jun 6	1 in 12
4	Fredrikstad	5	May 14 – Jun 14	1 in 9
5	Viking	6	May 3 – Jun 6	1 in 5

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hamarkameratene	6	Jun 6 – Aug 19	1 in 46
2	Viking	4	Aug 11 – Sep 13	1 in 17
3	Brann	6	Apr 28 – Jun 1	1 in 14
4	Sarpsborg	6	Aug 19 – Oct 10	1 in 14
5	Hodd	11	May 23 – Sep 19	1 in 13

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Rosenborg	1461	24	+32	8	6.5	+1.5
Lyn Oslo	1352	23	+12	6	4.9	+1.1
Viking	1432	22	+2	6	6.2	-0.2
Fredrikstad	1358	22	+21	6	4.8	+1.2
Hamarkameratene	1339	21	-17	6	5.6	+0.4
Stromsgodset	1355	21	+25	6	5.4	+0.6
Sarpsborg	1295	16	-25	3	5.2	-2.2
Hodd	1228	11	+63	4	3.8	+0.2
Brann	1199	11	-16	3	4.1	-1.1
Frigg Oslo	1033	9	-98	2	3.5	-1.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRA	FRE	FO	HAM	HOD	LO	ROS	SAR	STR	VIK
Brann	—	0-1-1 2.46	1-0-1 3.26	0-0-2 1.93	0-2-0 3.00	0-0-2 2.35	1-0-1 1.47	0-1-1 2.29	0-1-1 2.35	1-0-1 1.83
Fredrikstad	1-1-0 2.96	—	2-0-0 4.05	1-1-0 2.36	0-2-0 3.11	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 2.12	1-0-1 2.52	1-1-0 2.44	0-1-1 2.28
Frigg Oslo	1-0-1 2.16	0-0-2 1.41	—	1-0-1 1.35	1-0-1 2.19	0-0-2 1.98	0-1-1 1.25	0-0-2 1.92	0-0-2 1.58	1-0-1 1.13
Hamarkameratene	2-0-0 3.50	0-1-1 3.05	1-0-1 4.11	—	0-1-1 4.08	0-2-0 2.99	0-2-0 2.41	1-1-0 3.07	2-0-0 2.57	1-0-1 2.48
Hodd	0-2-0 2.42	0-2-0 2.32	1-0-1 3.24	1-1-0 1.37	—	1-0-1 2.30	0-0-2 1.48	0-0-2 2.42	0-0-2 1.83	0-0-2 1.56
Lyn Oslo	2-0-0 3.06	1-0-1 2.73	2-0-0 3.44	0-2-0 2.44	1-0-1 3.14	—	0-2-0 2.12	2-0-0 2.78	0-1-1 2.29	1-0-1 1.99
Rosenborg	1-0-1 3.97	1-0-1 3.31	1-1-0 4.22	0-2-0 3.01	2-0-0 3.96	0-2-0 3.30	—	2-0-0 3.16	1-1-0 2.88	1-0-1 2.67
Sarpsborg	1-1-0 3.13	1-0-1 2.89	2-0-0 3.51	0-1-1 2.35	2-0-0 3.00	0-0-2 2.63	0-0-2 2.25	—	0-1-1 2.58	0-1-1 2.28
Stromsgodset	1-1-0 3.08	0-1-1 2.97	2-0-0 3.87	0-0-2 2.85	2-0-0 3.59	1-1-0 3.13	0-1-1 2.54	1-1-0 2.84	—	0-2-0 2.28
Viking	1-0-1 3.60	1-1-0 3.14	1-0-1 4.35	1-0-1 2.95	2-0-0 3.90	1-0-1 3.42	1-0-1 2.74	1-1-0 3.15	0-2-0 3.13	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.45	+4.4
Allowed	0.76	-4.0
Differential	0.84	+2.9

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.33%	10.56%	2.22%	2.78%	2.22%	1.67%	32.78%
1	10.56%	6.67%	5.56%	4.44%	3.33%	2.22%	32.78%
2	2.22%	5.56%	5.56%	0.56%	—	—	13.89%
3	2.78%	4.44%	0.56%	2.22%	0.56%	—	10.56%
4	2.22%	3.33%	—	0.56%	—	—	6.11%
5+	1.67%	2.22%	—	—	—	—	3.89%
Total	32.78%	32.78%	13.89%	10.56%	6.11%	3.89%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.40	1.40	+0.00
SD	1.52	1.52	2.25
CV	1.08	1.08	—
Max	7	7	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	5.56%	50.00%
1	11.11%	5.56%	—	16.67%	—	—	33.33%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	27.78%	16.67%	27.78%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.78	1.72	-0.94
SD	1.00	1.41	1.66
CV	1.29	0.82	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	16.67%	—	—	—	5.56%	38.89%
1	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	11.11%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	27.78%
3	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	38.89%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.28	+0.50
SD	1.93	1.53	2.41
CV	1.08	1.19	—
Max	7	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	27.78%
1	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	61.11%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	16.67%	22.22%	22.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.89	3.06	-2.17
SD	0.76	2.44	2.62
CV	0.85	0.80	—
Max	3	7	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	27.78%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	44.44%
1	11.11%	11.11%	—	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
2	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	50.00%	38.89%	—	—	11.11%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.06	0.83	+0.22
SD	1.26	1.25	1.80
CV	1.19	1.50	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	50.00%
1	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
2	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	16.67%	16.67%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.94	1.78	-0.83
SD	1.43	1.70	2.33
CV	1.52	0.96	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
1	16.67%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	16.67%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	33.33%	50.00%	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	0.94	+0.61
SD	1.69	0.94	1.72
CV	1.09	0.99	—
Max	7	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	27.78%
1	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	33.33%
2	—	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	16.67%	—	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	50.00%	38.89%	11.11%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	0.61	+0.78
SD	1.24	0.70	1.40
CV	0.90	1.14	—
Max	4	2	+3
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	5.56%	5.56%	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	22.22%	27.78%	33.33%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.78	1.50	+0.28
SD	1.83	1.15	2.42
CV	1.03	0.77	—
Max	7	4	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	16.67%	—	—	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
1	11.11%	11.11%	11.11%	—	5.56%	—	38.89%
2	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	38.89%	27.78%	16.67%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.56	1.17	+0.39
SD	1.34	1.25	1.85
CV	0.86	1.07	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	16.67%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
1	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	27.78%
2	—	—	16.67%	—	—	—	16.67%
3	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	11.11%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
5+	11.11%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
Total	22.22%	50.00%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.28	1.11	+1.17
SD	1.87	0.83	2.28
CV	0.82	0.75	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Rosenborg	1461	24	22.21	+1.79	74.0%	12	16	21	22	25	27	29
Viking	1432	22	22.01	-0.01	54.0%	13	16	20	22	25	27	29
Fredrikstad	1358	22	18.15	+3.85	90.0%	11	13	16	18	20	24	27
Stromsgodset	1355	21	19.86	+1.14	69.0%	13	15	18	20	22	25	28
Lyn Oslo	1352	23	17.72	+5.28	97.0%	8	12	16	18	20	22	26
Hamarkameratene	1339	21	20.23	+0.77	61.0%	13	14	18	20	22	25	27
Sarpsborg	1295	16	18.42	-2.42	29.0%	10	13	16	18	20	24	27
Hodd	1228	11	14.11	-3.11	19.0%	6	8	12	14	16	18	21
Brann	1199	11	15.15	-4.15	10.0%	9	10	13	15	17	20	21
Frigg Oslo	1033	9	12.14	-3.14	16.0%	6	8	10	11	14	17	19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+21.11%

Clear Edge

46.67%27.78%25.56%

Elo Value

Home Edge

140 Elo

0.007 goals per Elo point

074.47400

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.60 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.53+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

3.8

Top-Heavy

134610

Champion Preseason Odds

35%

Rosenborg, 1st of 10

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.06/gm

Photo Finish

00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.54 * Some Luck: 2.54 to 3.82 * Lucky: 3.82 to 5.09 * Wild Swing: 5.09 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.33 * Close: 1.33 to 1.99 * Off: 1.99 to 2.66 * Way Off: 2.66 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.5 * A Surprise: 0.5 to 0.8 * Several Surprises: 0.8 to 1.1 * Many Surprises: 1.1 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.01 points

Some Luck

03.188

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.60

01.664

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.00%

97.00%

Lyn Oslo

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 5.00%

10.00%

Brann

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 10

Minimal Outliers

01.010

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 1

As Expected

00.51

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.16

Top-Heavy

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 124.79

1.59

Strong Separation

0.91.351.551.752.5

Interquartile Edge

66%

Clear Edge

50%61.5%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

92%

Strong Edge

50%91%100%

Close Games

Expected

62%

Very Frequent

0%49%100%

Blowouts

Expected

24%

Frequent

0%27%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.60

Predictable

00.602

Matchup Imbalance

0.44

Lopsided

00.320.380.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.94

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.37

Some Carryover

00.280.481

Upset Rate

Expected

22%

Chalky

0%20%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

19%

As Expected

0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.

Probability calibration

0.67

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.97

Calibrated

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.134

Well Within Noise

00.1730.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Rosenborg	35.00%	21.00%	22.00%	6.00%	5.00%	7.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—
Lyn Oslo	3.00%	6.00%	4.00%	18.00%	20.00%	13.00%	18.00%	11.00%	3.00%	4.00%
Viking	34.00%	20.00%	12.00%	10.00%	12.00%	3.00%	7.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%
Fredrikstad	6.00%	10.00%	10.00%	12.00%	12.00%	15.00%	9.00%	12.00%	11.00%	3.00%
Stromsgodset	8.00%	20.00%	13.00%	20.00%	11.00%	13.00%	9.00%	3.00%	3.00%	—
Hamarkameratene	12.00%	13.00%	22.00%	15.00%	8.00%	10.00%	11.00%	5.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Sarpsborg	2.00%	9.00%	14.00%	12.00%	16.00%	13.00%	15.00%	11.00%	4.00%	4.00%
Hodd	—	1.00%	1.00%	—	7.00%	10.00%	11.00%	19.00%	34.00%	17.00%
Brann	—	—	2.00%	7.00%	8.00%	10.00%	11.00%	26.00%	20.00%	16.00%
Frigg Oslo	—	—	—	—	1.00%	6.00%	7.00%	10.00%	22.00%	54.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Rosenborg	100%	—
Stromsgodset	100%	—
Hamarkameratene	99.00%	1.00%
Viking	99.00%	1.00%
Fredrikstad	97.00%	3.00%
Lyn Oslo	96.00%	4.00%
Sarpsborg	96.00%	4.00%
Brann	84.00%	16.00%
Hodd	83.00%	17.00%
Frigg Oslo	46.00%	54.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1971-04-25	Viking	W 3-1	42.4	1343	1335	50.37%	29.19%	20.44%	+0.59	+14.5	2
1971-04-25	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-3	42.4	1335	1343	20.44%	29.19%	50.37%	-0.59	-14.5	0
1971-04-25	Fredrikstad	D 0-0	47.8	1275	1287	48.17%	29.31%	22.52%	+0.44	-2.2	1
1971-04-25	@ Hodd	D 0-0	47.8	1287	1275	22.52%	29.31%	48.17%	-0.44	+2.2	1
1971-04-25	Rosenborg	L 1-2	50.4	1289	1369	39.67%	29.46%	30.87%	-0.04	-13.7	0
1971-04-25	@ Sarpsborg	W 2-1	50.4	1369	1289	30.87%	29.46%	39.67%	+0.04	+13.7	2
1971-04-26	Frigg Oslo	W 7-1	34.4	1254	1209	54.14%	28.89%	16.97%	+0.85	+33.2	2
1971-04-26	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-7	34.4	1209	1254	16.97%	28.89%	54.14%	-0.85	-33.1	0
1971-04-28	Stromsgodset	D 0-0	48.9	1336	1357	47.18%	29.35%	23.47%	+0.38	-2.0	1
1971-04-28	@ Brann	D 0-0	48.9	1357	1336	23.47%	29.35%	47.18%	-0.38	+2.0	1
1971-05-03	Lyn Oslo	W 3-2	48.5	1289	1287	49.69%	29.23%	21.08%	+0.54	+8.2	3
1971-05-03	@ Fredrikstad	L 2-3	48.5	1287	1289	21.08%	29.23%	49.69%	-0.54	-8.2	2
1971-05-03	Sarpsborg	L 0-4	38.5	1176	1275	37.02%	29.44%	33.54%	-0.18	-49.3	0
1971-05-03	@ Frigg Oslo	W 4-0	38.5	1275	1176	33.54%	29.44%	37.02%	+0.18	+49.3	2
1971-05-03	Brann	W 5-0	35.1	1320	1334	47.92%	29.32%	22.76%	+0.43	+42.6	2
1971-05-03	@ Viking	L 0-5	35.1	1334	1320	22.76%	29.32%	47.92%	-0.43	-42.7	1
1971-05-04	Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	49.7	1383	1357	52.20%	29.06%	18.74%	+0.71	-2.9	3
1971-05-04	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	49.7	1357	1383	18.74%	29.06%	52.20%	-0.71	+2.9	3
1971-05-04	Hodd	W 4-1	37.5	1359	1273	57.76%	28.44%	13.80%	+1.14	+14.9	3
1971-05-04	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-4	37.5	1273	1359	13.80%	28.44%	57.76%	-1.14	-14.9	1
1971-05-08	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	38.9	1325	1297	52.38%	29.05%	18.57%	+0.72	+8.2	4
1971-05-08	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-1	38.9	1297	1325	18.57%	29.05%	52.38%	-0.72	-8.2	3
1971-05-08	Rosenborg	W 1-0	41.8	1363	1380	47.60%	29.33%	23.07%	+0.41	+9.8	4
1971-05-08	@ Viking	L 0-1	41.8	1380	1363	23.07%	29.33%	47.60%	-0.41	-9.8	3
1971-05-09	Brann	D 0-0	47.7	1258	1292	45.60%	29.40%	25.01%	+0.29	-1.7	2
1971-05-09	@ Hodd	D 0-0	47.7	1292	1258	25.01%	29.40%	45.60%	-0.29	+1.7	2
1971-05-10	Frigg Oslo	W 1-0	33.7	1360	1126	67.53%	25.92%	6.55%	+2.19	+3.2	5
1971-05-10	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	33.7	1126	1360	6.55%	25.92%	67.53%	-2.19	-3.2	0
1971-05-10	Stromsgodset	L 0-1	45.0	1279	1374	37.69%	29.45%	32.86%	-0.14	-14.0	2
1971-05-10	@ Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	45.0	1374	1279	32.86%	29.45%	37.69%	+0.14	+14.0	5
1971-05-13	Rosenborg	D 1-1	51.9	1123	1370	19.27%	28.29%	52.44%	-1.23	+2.5	1
1971-05-13	@ Frigg Oslo	D 1-1	51.9	1370	1123	52.44%	28.29%	19.27%	+1.23	-2.5	4
1971-05-14	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	52.0	1293	1289	50.01%	29.21%	20.78%	+0.56	-2.2	3
1971-05-14	@ Brann	D 1-1	52.0	1289	1293	20.78%	29.21%	50.01%	-0.56	+2.2	4
1971-05-16	Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	39.5	1256	1265	48.50%	29.29%	22.21%	+0.47	+9.5	4
1971-05-16	@ Hodd	L 0-1	39.5	1265	1256	22.21%	29.29%	48.50%	-0.47	-9.5	2
1971-05-16	Viking	L 1-4	47.9	1333	1373	44.87%	29.42%	25.71%	+0.25	-37.0	4
1971-05-16	@ Sarpsborg	W 4-1	47.9	1373	1333	25.71%	29.42%	44.87%	-0.25	+37.0	6
1971-05-16	Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	55.2	1388	1363	52.10%	29.07%	18.83%	+0.70	-17.2	5
1971-05-16	@ Stromsgodset	W 2-1	55.2	1363	1388	18.83%	29.07%	52.10%	-0.70	+17.2	7
1971-05-23	Stromsgodset	D 3-3	61.1	1291	1371	39.77%	29.46%	30.77%	-0.04	-0.4	5
1971-05-23	@ Fredrikstad	D 3-3	61.1	1371	1291	30.77%	29.46%	39.77%	+0.04	+0.4	6
1971-05-23	Sarpsborg	D 0-0	49.0	1381	1296	57.65%	28.46%	13.89%	+1.13	-3.9	8
1971-05-23	@ Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	49.0	1296	1381	13.89%	28.46%	57.65%	-1.13	+3.9	5
1971-05-23	Brann	W 3-1	42.9	1256	1291	45.41%	29.40%	25.19%	+0.28	+17.0	4
1971-05-23	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	42.9	1291	1256	25.19%	29.40%	45.41%	-0.28	-17.0	3
1971-05-23	Hodd	W 4-1	37.1	1368	1266	59.03%	28.24%	12.74%	+1.26	+13.9	6
1971-05-23	@ Rosenborg	L 1-4	37.1	1266	1368	12.74%	28.24%	59.03%	-1.26	-13.9	4
1971-05-23	Frigg Oslo	W 4-1	33.2	1410	1126	70.07%	24.81%	5.12%	+2.55	+5.7	8
1971-05-23	@ Viking	L 1-4	33.2	1126	1410	5.12%	24.81%	70.07%	-2.55	-5.7	1
1971-05-31	Rosenborg	W 2-1	48.3	1291	1381	38.23%	29.45%	32.31%	-0.12	+11.8	7
1971-05-31	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	48.3	1381	1291	32.31%	29.45%	38.23%	+0.12	-11.8	6
1971-05-31	Viking	L 1-3	44.7	1252	1415	28.33%	29.14%	42.53%	-0.63	-18.5	4
1971-05-31	@ Hodd	W 3-1	44.7	1415	1252	42.53%	29.14%	28.33%	+0.63	+18.5	10
1971-05-31	Frigg Oslo	W 4-0	28.2	1371	1120	68.43%	25.55%	6.01%	+2.32	+10.5	8
1971-05-31	@ Stromsgodset	L 0-4	28.2	1120	1371	6.01%	25.55%	68.43%	-2.32	-10.5	1
1971-06-01	Hamarkameratene	L 0-3	40.4	1274	1377	36.61%	29.43%	33.96%	-0.20	-37.4	3
1971-06-01	@ Brann	W 3-0	40.4	1377	1274	33.96%	29.43%	36.61%	+0.20	+37.4	10
1971-06-01	Sarpsborg	W 2-1	45.0	1273	1300	46.44%	29.37%	24.19%	+0.34	+9.5	6
1971-06-01	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	45.0	1300	1273	24.19%	29.37%	46.44%	-0.34	-9.5	5
1971-06-03	Fredrikstad	L 3-4	51.8	1110	1303	24.82%	28.90%	46.28%	-0.84	-9.0	1
1971-06-03	@ Frigg Oslo	W 4-3	51.8	1303	1110	46.28%	28.90%	24.82%	+0.84	+9.0	9
1971-06-04	Hodd	W 4-0	32.2	1290	1233	55.22%	28.77%	16.01%	+0.94	+26.2	7
1971-06-04	@ Sarpsborg	L 0-4	32.2	1233	1290	16.01%	28.77%	55.22%	-0.94	-26.2	4
1971-06-06	Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	53.5	1414	1282	61.25%	27.80%	10.94%	+1.47	-4.2	11
1971-06-06	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	53.5	1282	1414	10.94%	27.80%	61.25%	-1.47	+4.2	7
1971-06-06	Brann	L 0-1	51.3	1370	1237	61.34%	27.79%	10.88%	+1.48	-21.4	6
1971-06-06	@ Rosenborg	W 1-0	51.3	1237	1370	10.88%	27.79%	61.34%	-1.48	+21.4	5
1971-06-06	Stromsgodset	D 2-2	60.1	1434	1382	54.80%	28.82%	16.38%	+0.90	-2.2	11
1971-06-06	@ Viking	D 2-2	60.1	1382	1434	16.38%	28.82%	54.80%	-0.90	+2.2	9
1971-06-13	Frigg Oslo	L 0-2	47.5	1207	1101	59.38%	28.17%	12.44%	+1.29	-39.1	4
1971-06-13	@ Hodd	W 2-0	47.5	1101	1207	12.44%	28.17%	59.38%	-1.29	+39.1	3
1971-06-13	Rosenborg	L 0-3	46.2	1384	1348	53.19%	28.98%	17.83%	+0.78	-51.0	9
1971-06-13	@ Stromsgodset	W 3-0	46.2	1348	1384	17.83%	28.98%	53.19%	-0.78	+51.0	8
1971-06-14	Sarpsborg	L 1-3	48.3	1258	1316	42.58%	29.45%	27.97%	+0.12	-25.1	5
1971-06-14	@ Brann	W 3-1	48.3	1316	1258	27.97%	29.45%	42.58%	-0.12	+25.1	9
1971-06-14	Hamarkameratene	W 4-0	39.3	1311	1410	37.17%	29.44%	33.39%	-0.17	+45.8	11
1971-06-14	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-4	39.3	1410	1311	33.39%	29.44%	37.17%	+0.17	-45.8	11
1971-06-14	Viking	W 2-1	51.1	1286	1432	30.71%	29.26%	40.03%	-0.50	+13.8	9
1971-06-14	@ Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	51.1	1432	1286	40.03%	29.26%	30.71%	+0.50	-13.8	11
1971-06-17	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	49.3	1399	1300	58.80%	28.28%	12.92%	+1.24	-4.2	9
1971-06-17	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	49.3	1300	1399	12.92%	28.28%	58.80%	-1.24	+4.2	10
1971-06-17	Fredrikstad	W 6-0	34.8	1418	1357	55.55%	28.74%	15.71%	+0.96	+37.7	13
1971-06-17	@ Viking	L 0-6	34.8	1357	1418	15.71%	28.74%	55.55%	-0.96	-37.7	11
1971-06-18	Stromsgodset	D 1-1	52.8	1341	1333	50.45%	29.19%	20.37%	+0.59	-2.3	10
1971-06-18	@ Sarpsborg	D 1-1	52.8	1333	1341	20.37%	29.19%	50.45%	-0.59	+2.3	10
1971-06-20	Brann	W 1-0	42.3	1140	1233	37.86%	29.45%	32.69%	-0.14	+12.6	5
1971-06-20	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	42.3	1233	1140	32.69%	29.45%	37.86%	+0.14	-12.6	5
1971-06-20	Hodd	D 0-0	48.5	1364	1168	65.42%	26.68%	7.90%	+1.93	-5.4	12
1971-06-20	@ Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	48.5	1168	1364	7.90%	26.68%	65.42%	-1.93	+5.5	5
1971-08-01	Hodd	D 0-0	48.1	1320	1173	62.26%	27.57%	10.17%	+1.57	-4.8	12
1971-08-01	@ Fredrikstad	D 0-0	48.1	1173	1320	10.17%	27.57%	62.26%	-1.57	+4.8	6
1971-08-01	Brann	W 3-1	38.6	1335	1220	59.99%	28.06%	11.94%	+1.35	+9.3	12
1971-08-01	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-3	38.6	1220	1335	11.94%	28.06%	59.99%	-1.35	-9.3	5
1971-08-02	Lyn Oslo	L 1-3	43.9	1152	1304	29.79%	29.22%	40.99%	-0.55	-19.2	5
1971-08-02	@ Frigg Oslo	W 3-1	43.9	1304	1152	40.99%	29.22%	29.79%	+0.55	+19.2	12
1971-08-02	Sarpsborg	W 3-0	35.1	1395	1339	55.14%	28.78%	16.08%	+0.93	+20.1	11
1971-08-02	@ Rosenborg	L 0-3	35.1	1339	1395	16.08%	28.78%	55.14%	-0.93	-20.1	10
1971-08-02	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	39.9	1456	1359	58.63%	28.30%	13.06%	+1.22	+6.2	15
1971-08-02	@ Viking	L 0-1	39.9	1359	1456	13.06%	28.30%	58.63%	-1.22	-6.2	12
1971-08-11	Viking	W 1-0	49.4	1211	1462	18.93%	28.24%	52.83%	-1.25	+18.4	7
1971-08-11	@ Brann	L 0-1	49.4	1462	1211	52.83%	28.24%	18.93%	+1.25	-18.4	15
1971-08-11	Rosenborg	D 1-1	54.1	1352	1415	41.98%	29.46%	28.56%	+0.08	-1.0	13
1971-08-11	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	54.1	1415	1352	28.56%	29.46%	41.98%	-0.08	+1.0	12
1971-08-11	Stromsgodset	L 0-1	41.2	1178	1344	28.03%	29.13%	42.84%	-0.65	-11.2	6
1971-08-11	@ Hodd	W 1-0	41.2	1344	1178	42.84%	29.13%	28.03%	+0.65	+11.2	14
1971-08-11	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	39.6	1324	1315	50.48%	29.18%	20.34%	+0.59	+8.9	14
1971-08-11	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	39.6	1315	1324	20.34%	29.18%	50.48%	-0.59	-8.9	12
1971-08-11	Frigg Oslo	W 7-1	31.2	1319	1133	64.81%	26.88%	8.32%	+1.85	+17.6	12
1971-08-11	@ Sarpsborg	L 1-7	31.2	1133	1319	8.32%	26.88%	64.81%	-1.85	-17.6	5
1971-08-19	Sarpsborg	W 2-0	38.6	1306	1337	45.99%	29.39%	24.63%	+0.31	+19.4	14
1971-08-19	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-2	38.6	1337	1306	24.63%	29.39%	45.99%	-0.31	-19.3	12
1971-08-19	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	47.8	1115	1352	20.29%	28.43%	51.28%	-1.15	+17.9	7
1971-08-19	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	47.8	1352	1115	51.28%	28.43%	20.29%	+1.15	-17.9	13
1971-08-22	Hodd	D 2-2	56.4	1230	1167	55.73%	28.72%	15.56%	+0.98	-2.4	8
1971-08-22	@ Brann	D 2-2	56.4	1167	1230	15.56%	28.72%	55.73%	-0.98	+2.4	7
1971-08-22	Viking	W 1-0	44.8	1416	1443	46.41%	29.37%	24.22%	+0.34	+10.1	14
1971-08-22	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	44.8	1443	1416	24.22%	29.37%	46.41%	-0.34	-10.1	15
1971-08-22	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	48.9	1356	1333	51.95%	29.08%	18.97%	+0.69	-2.8	15
1971-08-22	@ Stromsgodset	D 0-0	48.9	1333	1356	18.97%	29.08%	51.95%	-0.69	+2.8	15
1971-09-02	Frigg Oslo	W 2-1	37.7	1426	1133	70.51%	24.60%	4.89%	+2.62	+2.2	16
1971-09-02	@ Rosenborg	L 1-2	37.7	1133	1426	4.89%	24.60%	70.51%	-2.62	-2.2	7
1971-09-04	Sarpsborg	D 2-2	59.0	1433	1317	60.11%	28.04%	11.85%	+1.36	-3.0	16
1971-09-04	@ Viking	D 2-2	59.0	1317	1433	11.85%	28.04%	60.11%	-1.36	+2.9	13
1971-09-05	Brann	W 2-0	34.1	1325	1227	58.72%	28.29%	12.99%	+1.23	+11.6	16
1971-09-05	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-2	34.1	1227	1325	12.99%	28.29%	58.72%	-1.23	-11.6	8
1971-09-05	Stromsgodset	W 4-1	41.2	1334	1353	47.36%	29.34%	23.30%	+0.39	+22.7	15
1971-09-05	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-4	41.2	1353	1334	23.30%	29.34%	47.36%	-0.39	-22.7	15
1971-09-05	Hodd	W 1-0	34.9	1335	1169	63.56%	27.24%	9.20%	+1.71	+4.5	17
1971-09-05	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	34.9	1169	1335	9.20%	27.24%	63.56%	-1.71	-4.5	7
1971-09-12	Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	43.1	1216	1340	33.54%	29.36%	37.10%	-0.35	-12.8	8
1971-09-12	@ Brann	W 1-0	43.1	1340	1216	37.10%	29.36%	33.54%	+0.35	+12.8	19
1971-09-12	Rosenborg	L 0-3	33.9	1165	1429	17.77%	28.06%	54.17%	-1.35	-21.5	7
1971-09-12	@ Hodd	W 3-0	33.9	1429	1165	54.17%	28.06%	17.77%	+1.35	+21.5	18
1971-09-12	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	47.6	1320	1356	45.32%	29.40%	25.28%	+0.27	-16.2	13
1971-09-12	@ Sarpsborg	W 1-0	47.6	1356	1320	25.28%	29.40%	45.32%	-0.27	+16.2	17
1971-09-12	Fredrikstad	L 1-2	53.1	1330	1337	48.76%	29.28%	21.96%	+0.48	-16.2	15
1971-09-12	@ Stromsgodset	W 2-1	53.1	1337	1330	21.96%	29.28%	48.76%	-0.48	+16.2	18
1971-09-13	Viking	W 1-0	49.8	1131	1430	14.95%	27.51%	57.54%	-1.60	+19.9	9
1971-09-13	@ Frigg Oslo	L 0-1	49.8	1430	1131	57.54%	27.51%	14.95%	+1.60	-19.9	16
1971-09-19	Brann	W 2-0	32.7	1373	1203	63.80%	27.17%	9.02%	+1.74	+8.3	19
1971-09-19	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	32.7	1203	1373	9.02%	27.17%	63.80%	-1.74	-8.3	8
1971-09-19	Fredrikstad	W 1-0	39.7	1450	1353	58.64%	28.30%	13.06%	+1.22	+6.2	20
1971-09-19	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	39.7	1353	1450	13.06%	28.30%	58.64%	-1.22	-6.2	18
1971-09-19	Lyn Oslo	L 1-2	51.6	1304	1353	43.78%	29.44%	26.78%	+0.18	-14.8	13
1971-09-19	@ Sarpsborg	W 2-1	51.6	1353	1304	26.78%	29.44%	43.78%	-0.18	+14.8	21
1971-09-19	Hodd	W 5-1	31.9	1410	1143	69.24%	25.20%	5.56%	+2.43	+8.1	18
1971-09-19	@ Viking	L 1-5	31.9	1143	1410	5.56%	25.20%	69.24%	-2.43	-8.1	7
1971-09-22	Stromsgodset	L 0-3	36.8	1151	1314	28.44%	29.15%	42.41%	-0.63	-31.1	9
1971-09-22	@ Frigg Oslo	W 3-0	36.8	1314	1151	42.41%	29.15%	28.44%	+0.63	+31.2	17
1971-10-03	Frigg Oslo	W 3-1	39.0	1195	1120	56.79%	28.58%	14.63%	+1.06	+11.1	10
1971-10-03	@ Brann	L 1-3	39.0	1120	1195	14.63%	28.58%	56.79%	-1.06	-11.1	9
1971-10-06	Viking	D 2-2	58.9	1347	1419	40.81%	29.46%	29.73%	+0.02	-0.6	19
1971-10-06	@ Fredrikstad	D 2-2	58.9	1419	1347	29.73%	29.46%	40.81%	-0.02	+0.6	19
1971-10-06	Hamarkameratene	W 4-1	48.4	1135	1381	19.40%	28.31%	52.29%	-1.22	+42.0	9
1971-10-06	@ Hodd	L 1-4	48.4	1381	1135	52.29%	28.31%	19.40%	+1.22	-42.0	19
1971-10-06	Rosenborg	D 2-2	60.1	1367	1456	38.51%	29.46%	32.04%	-0.10	-0.3	22
1971-10-06	@ Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	60.1	1456	1367	32.04%	29.46%	38.51%	+0.10	+0.3	21
1971-10-06	Sarpsborg	W 2-1	42.9	1345	1289	55.11%	28.79%	16.10%	+0.93	+6.9	19
1971-10-06	@ Stromsgodset	L 1-2	42.9	1289	1345	16.10%	28.79%	55.11%	-0.93	-6.9	13
1971-10-10	Hodd	L 0-5	39.4	1109	1177	41.21%	29.46%	29.33%	+0.04	-65.9	9
1971-10-10	@ Frigg Oslo	W 5-0	39.4	1177	1109	29.33%	29.46%	41.21%	-0.04	+65.9	11
1971-10-10	Fredrikstad	D 0-0	48.8	1339	1346	48.69%	29.28%	22.03%	+0.48	-2.2	20
1971-10-10	@ Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	48.8	1346	1339	22.03%	29.28%	48.69%	-0.48	+2.2	20
1971-10-10	Brann	D 3-3	60.3	1282	1206	56.96%	28.56%	14.48%	+1.08	-2.1	14
1971-10-10	@ Sarpsborg	D 3-3	60.3	1206	1282	14.48%	28.56%	56.96%	-1.08	+2.1	11
1971-10-10	Lyn Oslo	W 3-1	42.8	1419	1367	54.76%	28.82%	16.41%	+0.90	+12.2	21
1971-10-10	@ Viking	L 1-3	42.8	1367	1419	16.41%	28.82%	54.76%	-0.90	-12.2	22
1971-10-13	Stromsgodset	D 0-0	51.3	1457	1352	59.24%	28.20%	12.56%	+1.28	-4.2	22
1971-10-13	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	51.3	1352	1457	12.56%	28.20%	59.24%	-1.28	+4.2	20
1971-10-17	Rosenborg	L 0-1	39.3	1208	1452	19.48%	28.32%	52.20%	-1.21	-8.5	11
1971-10-17	@ Brann	W 1-0	39.3	1452	1208	52.20%	28.32%	19.48%	+1.21	+8.5	24
1971-10-17	Frigg Oslo	W 7-1	29.2	1348	1043	71.10%	24.30%	4.60%	+2.71	+9.5	22
1971-10-17	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-7	29.2	1043	1348	4.60%	24.30%	71.10%	-2.71	-9.5	9
1971-10-17	Sarpsborg	L 1-2	51.1	1243	1280	45.25%	29.41%	25.34%	+0.27	-15.2	11
1971-10-17	@ Hodd	W 2-1	51.1	1280	1243	25.34%	29.41%	45.25%	-0.27	+15.2	16
1971-10-17	Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	49.0	1355	1337	51.47%	29.12%	19.42%	+0.66	-2.8	23
1971-10-17	@ Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	49.0	1337	1355	19.42%	29.12%	51.47%	-0.66	+2.8	21
1971-10-17	Viking	D 1-1	54.5	1356	1431	40.34%	29.46%	30.20%	-0.01	-0.7	21
1971-10-17	@ Stromsgodset	D 1-1	54.5	1431	1356	30.20%	29.46%	40.34%	+0.01	+0.7	22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1971-06-06	10.88%	Brann	1237	1	@ Rosenborg	1370	0
2	1971-06-13	12.44%	Frigg Oslo	1101	2	@ Hodd	1207	0
3	1971-09-13	14.95%	@ Frigg Oslo	1131	1	Viking	1430	0
4	1971-06-13	17.83%	Rosenborg	1348	3	@ Stromsgodset	1384	0
5	1971-05-16	18.83%	Hamarkameratene	1363	2	@ Stromsgodset	1388	1
6	1971-08-11	18.93%	@ Brann	1211	1	Viking	1462	0
7	1971-10-06	19.40%	@ Hodd	1135	4	Hamarkameratene	1381	1
8	1971-08-19	20.29%	@ Frigg Oslo	1115	1	Hamarkameratene	1352	0
9	1971-09-12	21.96%	Fredrikstad	1337	2	@ Stromsgodset	1330	1
10	1971-09-12	25.28%	Hamarkameratene	1356	1	@ Sarpsborg	1320	0
11	1971-10-17	25.34%	Sarpsborg	1280	2	@ Hodd	1243	1
12	1971-05-16	25.71%	Viking	1373	4	@ Sarpsborg	1333	1
13	1971-09-19	26.78%	Lyn Oslo	1353	2	@ Sarpsborg	1304	1
14	1971-06-14	27.97%	Sarpsborg	1316	3	@ Brann	1258	1
15	1971-10-10	29.33%	Hodd	1177	5	@ Frigg Oslo	1109	0
16	1971-06-14	30.71%	@ Lyn Oslo	1286	2	Viking	1432	1
17	1971-04-25	30.87%	Rosenborg	1369	2	@ Sarpsborg	1289	1
18	1971-05-10	32.86%	Stromsgodset	1374	1	@ Lyn Oslo	1279	0
19	1971-05-03	33.54%	Sarpsborg	1275	4	@ Frigg Oslo	1176	0
20	1971-06-01	33.96%	Hamarkameratene	1377	3	@ Brann	1274	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1971-10-10	65.95	Hodd	5	1177	29.33%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1109	41.21%	29.46%
2	1971-06-13	51.05	Rosenborg	3	1348	17.83%	@ Stromsgodset	0	1384	53.19%	28.98%
3	1971-05-03	49.31	Sarpsborg	4	1275	33.54%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1176	37.02%	29.44%
4	1971-06-14	45.81	@ Fredrikstad	4	1311	37.17%	Hamarkameratene	0	1410	33.39%	29.44%
5	1971-05-03	42.66	@ Viking	5	1320	47.92%	Brann	0	1334	22.76%	29.32%
6	1971-10-06	42.03	@ Hodd	4	1135	19.40%	Hamarkameratene	1	1381	52.29%	28.31%
7	1971-06-13	39.08	Frigg Oslo	2	1101	12.44%	@ Hodd	0	1207	59.38%	28.17%
8	1971-06-17	37.73	@ Viking	6	1418	55.55%	Fredrikstad	0	1357	15.71%	28.74%
9	1971-06-01	37.43	Hamarkameratene	3	1377	33.96%	@ Brann	0	1274	36.61%	29.43%
10	1971-05-16	37.02	Viking	4	1373	25.71%	@ Sarpsborg	1	1333	44.87%	29.42%
11	1971-04-26	33.16	@ Lyn Oslo	7	1254	54.14%	Frigg Oslo	1	1209	16.97%	28.89%
12	1971-09-22	31.15	Stromsgodset	3	1314	42.41%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1151	28.44%	29.15%
13	1971-06-04	26.17	@ Sarpsborg	4	1290	55.22%	Hodd	0	1233	16.01%	28.77%
14	1971-06-14	25.07	Sarpsborg	3	1316	27.97%	@ Brann	1	1258	42.58%	29.45%
15	1971-09-05	22.74	@ Hamarkameratene	4	1334	47.36%	Stromsgodset	1	1353	23.30%	29.34%
16	1971-09-12	21.46	Rosenborg	3	1429	54.17%	@ Hodd	0	1165	17.77%	28.06%
17	1971-06-06	21.40	Brann	1	1237	10.88%	@ Rosenborg	0	1370	61.34%	27.79%
18	1971-08-02	20.11	@ Rosenborg	3	1395	55.14%	Sarpsborg	0	1339	16.08%	28.78%
19	1971-09-13	19.87	@ Frigg Oslo	1	1131	14.95%	Viking	0	1430	57.54%	27.51%
20	1971-08-19	19.36	@ Fredrikstad	2	1306	45.99%	Sarpsborg	0	1337	24.63%	29.39%
21	1971-08-02	19.22	Lyn Oslo	3	1304	40.99%	@ Frigg Oslo	1	1152	29.79%	29.22%
22	1971-05-31	18.51	Viking	3	1415	42.53%	@ Hodd	1	1252	28.33%	29.14%
23	1971-08-11	18.37	@ Brann	1	1211	18.93%	Viking	0	1462	52.83%	28.24%
24	1971-08-19	17.89	@ Frigg Oslo	1	1115	20.29%	Hamarkameratene	0	1352	51.28%	28.43%
25	1971-08-11	17.57	@ Sarpsborg	7	1319	64.81%	Frigg Oslo	1	1133	8.32%	26.88%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1971-05-23	61.1	@ Fredrikstad	3	1291	39.77%	Stromsgodset	3	1371	30.77%	29.46%
2	1971-10-10	60.3	@ Sarpsborg	3	1282	56.96%	Brann	3	1206	14.48%	28.56%
3	1971-06-06	60.1	@ Viking	2	1434	54.80%	Stromsgodset	2	1382	16.38%	28.82%
4	1971-10-06	60.1	@ Lyn Oslo	2	1367	38.51%	Rosenborg	2	1456	32.04%	29.46%
5	1971-09-04	59.0	@ Viking	2	1433	60.11%	Sarpsborg	2	1317	11.85%	28.04%
6	1971-10-06	58.9	@ Fredrikstad	2	1347	40.81%	Viking	2	1419	29.73%	29.46%
7	1971-08-22	56.4	@ Brann	2	1230	55.73%	Hodd	2	1167	15.56%	28.72%
8	1971-05-16	55.2	Hamarkameratene	2	1363	18.83%	@ Stromsgodset	1	1388	52.10%	29.07%
9	1971-10-17	54.5	@ Stromsgodset	1	1356	40.34%	Viking	1	1431	30.20%	29.46%
10	1971-08-11	54.1	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1352	41.98%	Rosenborg	1	1415	28.56%	29.46%
11	1971-06-06	53.5	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1414	61.25%	Lyn Oslo	1	1282	10.94%	27.80%
12	1971-09-12	53.1	Fredrikstad	2	1337	21.96%	@ Stromsgodset	1	1330	48.76%	29.28%
13	1971-06-18	52.8	@ Sarpsborg	1	1341	50.45%	Stromsgodset	1	1333	20.37%	29.19%
14	1971-05-14	52.0	@ Brann	1	1293	50.01%	Fredrikstad	1	1289	20.78%	29.21%
15	1971-05-13	51.9	@ Frigg Oslo	1	1123	19.27%	Rosenborg	1	1370	52.44%	28.29%
16	1971-06-03	51.8	Fredrikstad	4	1303	46.28%	@ Frigg Oslo	3	1110	24.82%	28.90%
17	1971-09-19	51.6	Lyn Oslo	2	1353	26.78%	@ Sarpsborg	1	1304	43.78%	29.44%
18	1971-06-06	51.3	Brann	1	1237	10.88%	@ Rosenborg	0	1370	61.34%	27.79%
19	1971-10-13	51.3	@ Rosenborg	0	1457	59.24%	Stromsgodset	0	1352	12.56%	28.20%
20	1971-06-14	51.1	@ Lyn Oslo	2	1286	30.71%	Viking	1	1432	40.03%	29.26%
21	1971-10-17	51.1	Sarpsborg	2	1280	25.34%	@ Hodd	1	1243	45.25%	29.41%
22	1971-04-25	50.4	Rosenborg	2	1369	30.87%	@ Sarpsborg	1	1289	39.67%	29.46%
23	1971-09-13	49.8	@ Frigg Oslo	1	1131	14.95%	Viking	0	1430	57.54%	27.51%
24	1971-05-04	49.7	@ Rosenborg	0	1383	52.20%	Hamarkameratene	0	1357	18.74%	29.06%
25	1971-08-11	49.4	@ Brann	1	1211	18.93%	Viking	0	1462	52.83%	28.24%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1971-05-31	28.2	@ Stromsgodset	4	1371	68.43%	Frigg Oslo	0	1120	6.01%	25.55%
2	1971-10-17	29.2	@ Fredrikstad	7	1348	71.10%	Frigg Oslo	1	1043	4.60%	24.30%
3	1971-08-11	31.2	@ Sarpsborg	7	1319	64.81%	Frigg Oslo	1	1133	8.32%	26.88%
4	1971-09-19	31.9	@ Viking	5	1410	69.24%	Hodd	1	1143	5.56%	25.20%
5	1971-06-04	32.2	@ Sarpsborg	4	1290	55.22%	Hodd	0	1233	16.01%	28.77%
6	1971-09-19	32.7	@ Hamarkameratene	2	1373	63.80%	Brann	0	1203	9.02%	27.17%
7	1971-05-23	33.2	@ Viking	4	1410	70.07%	Frigg Oslo	1	1126	5.12%	24.81%
8	1971-05-10	33.7	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1360	67.53%	Frigg Oslo	0	1126	6.55%	25.92%
9	1971-09-12	33.9	Rosenborg	3	1429	54.17%	@ Hodd	0	1165	17.77%	28.06%
10	1971-09-05	34.1	@ Fredrikstad	2	1325	58.72%	Brann	0	1227	12.99%	28.29%
11	1971-04-26	34.4	@ Lyn Oslo	7	1254	54.14%	Frigg Oslo	1	1209	16.97%	28.89%
12	1971-06-17	34.8	@ Viking	6	1418	55.55%	Fredrikstad	0	1357	15.71%	28.74%
13	1971-09-05	34.9	@ Lyn Oslo	1	1335	63.56%	Hodd	0	1169	9.20%	27.24%
14	1971-05-03	35.1	@ Viking	5	1320	47.92%	Brann	0	1334	22.76%	29.32%
15	1971-08-02	35.1	@ Rosenborg	3	1395	55.14%	Sarpsborg	0	1339	16.08%	28.78%
16	1971-09-22	36.8	Stromsgodset	3	1314	42.41%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1151	28.44%	29.15%
17	1971-05-23	37.1	@ Rosenborg	4	1368	59.03%	Hodd	1	1266	12.74%	28.24%
18	1971-05-04	37.5	@ Stromsgodset	4	1359	57.76%	Hodd	1	1273	13.80%	28.44%
19	1971-09-02	37.7	@ Rosenborg	2	1426	70.51%	Frigg Oslo	1	1133	4.89%	24.60%
20	1971-05-03	38.5	Sarpsborg	4	1275	33.54%	@ Frigg Oslo	0	1176	37.02%	29.44%
21	1971-08-01	38.6	@ Stromsgodset	3	1335	59.99%	Brann	1	1220	11.94%	28.06%
22	1971-08-19	38.6	@ Fredrikstad	2	1306	45.99%	Sarpsborg	0	1337	24.63%	29.39%
23	1971-05-08	38.9	@ Sarpsborg	1	1325	52.38%	Fredrikstad	0	1297	18.57%	29.05%
24	1971-10-03	39.0	@ Brann	3	1195	56.79%	Frigg Oslo	1	1120	14.63%	28.58%
25	1971-06-14	39.3	@ Fredrikstad	4	1311	37.17%	Hamarkameratene	0	1410	33.39%	29.44%