1981 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Valerenga

29 points · 2nd Title

Last Title: 1965

Relegated

Lyn Oslo

13 pts

Haugar · 16 pts

Brann · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Viking

6.04 points above expected

28 points · 21.96 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lyn Oslo

5.20 points below expected

13 points · 18.20 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Valerenga Champion	22	9	11	2	29	44	27	+17	24.46	+4.54
2	Viking	22	11	6	5	28	32	30	+2	21.96	+6.04
3	Rosenborg	22	9	8	5	26	35	24	+11	24.31	+1.69
4	Fredrikstad	22	9	7	6	25	45	26	+19	22.14	+2.86
5	Moss	22	8	8	6	24	27	27	0	23.44	+0.56
6	Hamarkameratene	22	8	6	8	22	25	21	+4	21.76	+0.24
7	Lillestrom	22	6	10	6	22	26	25	+1	23.35	-1.35
8	Start	22	8	5	9	21	36	38	-2	24.12	-3.12
9	Bryne	22	6	9	7	21	29	34	-5	22.16	-1.16
10	Brann Relegated	22	5	7	10	17	26	40	-14	17.95	-0.95
11	Haugar Relegated	22	2	12	8	16	20	38	-18	20.15	-4.15
12	Lyn Oslo Relegated	22	4	5	13	13	22	37	-15	18.20	-5.20

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Viking	28	21.96	+6.04
2	Valerenga	29	24.46	+4.54
3	Fredrikstad	25	22.14	+2.86
4	Rosenborg	26	24.31	+1.69
5	Moss	24	23.44	+0.56

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Lyn Oslo	13	18.20	-5.20
2	Haugar	16	20.15	-4.15
3	Start	21	24.12	-3.12
4	Lillestrom	22	23.35	-1.35
5	Bryne	21	22.16	-1.16

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brann	3	Sep 2 – Sep 27	1 in 122
2	Fredrikstad	3	Jun 8 – Jun 21	1 in 46
3	Viking	3	Oct 4 – Oct 18	1 in 32
4	Valerenga	3	Jul 6 – Jul 29	1 in 17
5	Hamarkameratene	2	May 3 – May 10	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Hamarkameratene	6	May 13 – Jun 29	1 in 834
2	Rosenborg	4	Sep 13 – Oct 11	1 in 337
3	Lyn Oslo	6	Aug 17 – Oct 4	1 in 152
4	Brann	6	Jul 13 – Aug 23	1 in 143
5	Moss	2	Aug 10 – Aug 17	1 in 27

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Brann	6	Sep 2 – Oct 18	1 in 31
2	Valerenga	8	Jun 10 – Aug 10	1 in 17
3	Rosenborg	9	May 3 – Jun 29	1 in 16
4	Fredrikstad	9	Aug 10 – Oct 18	1 in 15
5	Moss	9	May 3 – Jul 6	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Rosenborg	7	Aug 23 – Oct 18	1 in 26
2	Haugar	9	Jul 6 – Sep 13	1 in 20
3	Lillestrom	6	Aug 10 – Sep 27	1 in 11
4	Brann	8	Apr 26 – Jun 21	1 in 10
5	Hamarkameratene	6	May 13 – Jun 29	1 in 8

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Valerenga	1346	29	+34	7	5.7	+1.3
Viking	1282	28	+10	7	4.9	+2.1
Rosenborg	1273	26	-59	1	5.4	-4.4
Fredrikstad	1342	25	+37	9	5.9	+3.1
Moss	1254	24	-20	3	4.9	-1.9
Hamarkameratene	1281	22	+34	7	5.4	+1.6
Lillestrom	1259	22	-15	5	5.4	-0.4
Start	1258	21	-33	4	5.1	-1.1
Bryne	1249	21	-30	3	5.3	-2.3
Brann	1209	17	+75	8	3.7	+4.3
Haugar	1150	16	-20	4	4.4	-0.4
Lyn Oslo	1156	13	-13	2	3.8	-1.8

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRA	BRY	FRE	HAM	HAU	LIL	LO	MOS	ROS	STA	VAL	VIK
Brann	—	1-1-0 1.90	0-1-1 2.21	1-1-0 2.14	1-1-0 2.43	1-1-0 1.82	1-0-1 2.36	0-0-2 2.10	0-0-2 1.94	0-1-1 1.83	0-1-1 1.85	0-0-2 2.28
Bryne	0-1-1 3.39	—	1-1-0 2.45	0-0-2 2.79	0-2-0 2.83	1-0-1 2.66	1-1-0 3.34	1-1-0 2.44	0-1-1 2.26	2-0-0 2.33	0-1-1 2.52	0-1-1 2.59
Fredrikstad	1-1-0 3.08	0-1-1 2.81	—	0-0-2 2.53	1-1-0 2.54	1-1-0 2.79	2-0-0 3.02	1-0-1 2.63	0-1-1 2.14	0-1-1 2.22	1-1-0 2.22	2-0-0 2.66
Hamarkameratene	0-1-1 3.13	2-0-0 2.46	2-0-0 2.72	—	1-1-0 2.71	0-1-1 2.43	1-1-0 3.26	0-0-2 2.37	1-0-1 2.11	0-1-1 2.31	1-0-1 2.35	0-1-1 2.68
Haugar	0-1-1 2.82	0-2-0 2.42	0-1-1 2.71	0-1-1 2.54	—	0-1-1 2.36	0-1-1 2.95	0-2-0 1.95	1-1-0 1.91	1-0-1 2.00	0-2-0 1.93	0-0-2 2.30
Lillestrom	0-1-1 3.46	1-0-1 2.59	0-1-1 2.46	1-1-0 2.82	1-1-0 2.89	—	2-0-0 3.35	0-1-1 2.71	0-2-0 2.41	0-1-1 2.60	0-1-1 2.51	1-1-0 2.64
Lyn Oslo	1-0-1 2.88	0-1-1 1.93	0-0-2 2.26	0-1-1 2.00	1-1-0 2.30	0-0-2 1.92	—	1-0-1 1.73	0-1-1 1.90	0-1-1 1.89	0-0-2 1.95	1-0-1 1.95
Moss	2-0-0 3.18	0-1-1 2.81	1-0-1 2.64	2-0-0 2.87	0-2-0 3.32	1-1-0 2.54	1-0-1 3.55	—	0-1-1 2.63	1-0-1 2.55	0-2-0 2.58	0-1-1 2.89
Rosenborg	2-0-0 3.33	1-1-0 2.99	1-1-0 3.12	1-0-1 3.15	0-1-1 3.37	0-2-0 2.85	1-1-0 3.39	1-1-0 2.61	—	2-0-0 2.51	0-1-1 2.64	0-0-2 2.91
Start	1-1-0 3.45	0-0-2 2.92	1-1-0 3.04	1-1-0 2.94	1-0-1 3.27	1-1-0 2.65	1-1-0 3.39	1-0-1 2.70	0-0-2 2.75	—	0-0-2 2.59	1-0-1 2.65
Valerenga	1-1-0 3.44	1-1-0 2.73	0-1-1 3.03	1-0-1 2.91	0-2-0 3.33	1-1-0 2.74	2-0-0 3.31	0-2-0 2.66	1-1-0 2.62	2-0-0 2.66	—	0-2-0 2.80
Viking	2-0-0 2.97	1-1-0 2.66	0-0-2 2.58	1-1-0 2.56	2-0-0 2.96	0-1-1 2.61	1-0-1 3.32	1-1-0 2.37	2-0-0 2.34	1-0-1 2.60	0-2-0 2.45	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.54	+4.4
Allowed	0.46	-5.1
Differential	0.75	+3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	6.44%	7.58%	2.27%	1.14%	2.65%	29.17%
1	6.44%	15.15%	4.92%	2.27%	0.38%	—	29.17%
2	7.58%	4.92%	11.36%	1.52%	1.52%	0.76%	27.65%
3	2.27%	2.27%	1.52%	—	0.38%	0.38%	6.82%
4	1.14%	0.38%	1.52%	0.38%	—	—	3.41%
5+	2.65%	—	0.76%	0.38%	—	—	3.79%
Total	29.17%	29.17%	27.65%	6.82%	3.41%	3.79%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.39	1.39	+0.00
SD	1.32	1.32	1.96
CV	0.95	0.95	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	40.91%
1	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	18.18%	27.27%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.82	-0.64
SD	1.44	1.68	2.61
CV	1.21	0.92	—
Max	6	6	+6
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	40.91%
2	9.09%	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	4.55%	36.36%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	22.73%	31.82%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.55	-0.23
SD	0.95	1.37	1.34
CV	0.72	0.89	—
Max	4	5	+2
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
1	4.55%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	13.64%	—	—	—	—	—	13.64%
Total	31.82%	31.82%	27.27%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.05	1.18	+0.86
SD	1.79	1.10	2.40
CV	0.87	0.93	—
Max	6	4	+6
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	13.64%	13.64%	—	—	—	36.36%
1	9.09%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	31.82%	31.82%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	0.95	+0.18
SD	1.25	0.84	1.53
CV	1.10	0.88	—
Max	5	2	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	9.09%	36.36%
1	—	31.82%	—	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	13.64%	45.45%	22.73%	9.09%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.91	1.73	-0.82
SD	0.81	1.61	1.92
CV	0.89	0.93	—
Max	2	6	+2
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	45.45%
1	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
2	—	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	27.27%	36.36%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.14	+0.05
SD	1.56	0.94	1.79
CV	1.32	0.83	—
Max	6	3	+6
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	50.00%
1	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	1.68	-0.68
SD	1.31	1.43	1.99
CV	1.31	0.85	—
Max	5	5	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
2	13.64%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	31.82%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	40.91%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	1.23	+0.00
SD	0.97	1.34	1.75
CV	0.79	1.09	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	9.09%	27.27%	4.55%	—	—	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	9.09%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	40.91%	27.27%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.59	1.09	+0.50
SD	1.47	0.87	1.82
CV	0.92	0.80	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
1	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	22.73%
3	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%
4	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	13.64%	22.73%	4.55%	13.64%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.73	-0.09
SD	1.29	1.75	2.04
CV	0.79	1.01	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
1	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	9.09%	31.82%	—	—	—	50.00%
3	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	22.73%	31.82%	45.45%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.23	+0.77
SD	1.15	0.81	1.34
CV	0.58	0.66	—
Max	5	2	+4
Min	0	0	-1

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	31.82%
1	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
2	18.18%	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	40.91%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	27.27%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.36	+0.09
SD	1.30	1.56	2.24
CV	0.89	1.14	—
Max	5	6	+3
Min	0	0	-6

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Valerenga	1346	29	24.46	+4.54	94.0%	15	19	23	24	26	30	32
Fredrikstad	1342	25	22.14	+2.86	76.0%	12	16	19	22	25	28	30
Viking	1282	28	21.96	+6.04	95.0%	15	17	20	22	24	28	31
Hamarkameratene	1281	22	21.76	+0.24	62.0%	16	17	19	21	24	29	32
Rosenborg	1273	26	24.31	+1.69	78.0%	16	19	22	24	26	30	34
Lillestrom	1259	22	23.35	-1.35	40.0%	15	18	21	24	25	28	34
Start	1258	21	24.12	-3.12	26.0%	16	18	21	24	27	30	31
Moss	1254	24	23.44	+0.56	59.0%	15	18	21	23	26	29	31
Bryne	1249	21	22.16	-1.16	40.0%	12	16	20	22	24	27	33
Brann	1209	17	17.95	-0.95	41.0%	10	12	15	18	20	24	27
Lyn Oslo	1156	13	18.20	-5.20	8.0%	11	13	16	18	21	23	29
Haugar	1150	16	20.15	-4.15	16.0%	10	15	18	20	22	26	27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+9.85%

No Edge

37.12%35.61%27.27%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 34.33 Elo pts.

180 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

0500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.40 goals

Neutral

-2+0.19+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.0

Wide Open

134610

Champion Preseason Odds

21%

Valerenga, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.05/gm

Photo Finish

00.090.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.78 * Some Luck: 2.78 to 4.17 * Lucky: 4.17 to 5.56 * Wild Swing: 5.56 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.15 * Close: 2.15 to 3.23 * Off: 3.23 to 4.3 * Way Off: 4.3 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 1.73 * A Surprise: 1.73 to 2.77 * Several Surprises: 2.77 to 3.81 * Many Surprises: 3.81 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

3.25 points

Some Luck

03.489

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.33

02.696

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.00%

Viking

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

8.00%

Lyn Oslo

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

0 of 3

As Expected

01.73

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.12

Balanced

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 60.65

1.29

Coin-Flip Parity

0.91.351.551.752.5

Interquartile Edge

56%

Even

50%61.5%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

76%

Even

50%77%100%

Close Games

Expected

62%

Very Frequent

0%55%100%

Blowouts

Expected

14%

Rare

0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.65

Hard to Predict

00.642

Matchup Imbalance

0.28

Very Even

00.320.380.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.90

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

0.08

Weak Carryover

00.280.481

Upset Rate

Expected

26%

Upset-Prone

0%22%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

21%

As Expected

0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.16 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.16 to 0.23 * Above Noise: 0.23 to 0.31 * Well Above Noise: 0.31 and up.

Probability calibration

0.99

Excellent

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.80

Overconfident

0.51.001.5

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.067

Well Within Noise

00.1570.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Valerenga	21.00%	17.00%	14.00%	12.00%	8.00%	7.00%	10.00%	4.00%	1.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Viking	3.00%	10.00%	4.00%	6.00%	14.00%	12.00%	14.00%	10.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	4.00%
Rosenborg	15.00%	14.00%	14.00%	16.00%	11.00%	9.00%	7.00%	8.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
Fredrikstad	7.00%	10.00%	13.00%	4.00%	10.00%	13.00%	9.00%	7.00%	9.00%	7.00%	3.00%	8.00%
Moss	10.00%	10.00%	12.00%	13.00%	8.00%	9.00%	6.00%	8.00%	11.00%	4.00%	8.00%	1.00%
Hamarkameratene	9.00%	7.00%	4.00%	6.00%	7.00%	4.00%	10.00%	9.00%	13.00%	15.00%	12.00%	4.00%
Lillestrom	9.00%	12.00%	12.00%	15.00%	8.00%	6.00%	10.00%	11.00%	4.00%	9.00%	4.00%	—
Start	21.00%	10.00%	11.00%	10.00%	8.00%	13.00%	5.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	2.00%	4.00%
Bryne	3.00%	4.00%	8.00%	9.00%	15.00%	12.00%	10.00%	13.00%	6.00%	7.00%	8.00%	5.00%
Brann	—	3.00%	1.00%	3.00%	3.00%	4.00%	4.00%	7.00%	11.00%	15.00%	16.00%	33.00%
Haugar	1.00%	2.00%	6.00%	5.00%	3.00%	8.00%	10.00%	9.00%	14.00%	13.00%	16.00%	13.00%
Lyn Oslo	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	5.00%	3.00%	5.00%	8.00%	14.00%	12.00%	22.00%	27.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Rosenborg	98.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Valerenga	94.00%	4.00%	2.00%
Lillestrom	87.00%	9.00%	4.00%
Start	89.00%	5.00%	6.00%
Moss	87.00%	4.00%	9.00%
Fredrikstad	82.00%	7.00%	11.00%
Viking	81.00%	8.00%	11.00%
Bryne	80.00%	7.00%	13.00%
Hamarkameratene	69.00%	15.00%	16.00%
Haugar	58.00%	13.00%	29.00%
Brann	36.00%	15.00%	49.00%
Lyn Oslo	39.00%	12.00%	49.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1981-04-26	Lillestrom	D 2-2	54.0	1251	1271	35.99%	37.74%	26.26%	+0.08	-0.3	1
1981-04-26	@ Hamarkameratene	D 2-2	54.0	1271	1251	26.26%	37.74%	35.99%	-0.08	+0.3	1
1981-04-26	Bryne	D 1-1	48.5	1256	1280	35.55%	37.76%	26.69%	+0.06	-0.4	1
1981-04-26	@ Haugar	D 1-1	48.5	1280	1256	26.69%	37.76%	35.55%	-0.06	+0.4	1
1981-04-26	Start	L 0-1	44.9	1273	1293	36.16%	37.74%	26.10%	+0.08	-8.5	0
1981-04-26	@ Moss	W 1-0	44.9	1293	1273	26.10%	37.74%	36.16%	-0.08	+8.5	2
1981-04-26	Lyn Oslo	W 3-0	35.1	1248	1209	43.48%	37.07%	19.45%	+0.41	+15.4	2
1981-04-26	@ Valerenga	L 0-3	35.1	1209	1248	19.45%	37.07%	43.48%	-0.41	-15.4	0
1981-04-26	Brann	W 2-0	36.8	1276	1236	43.57%	37.06%	19.37%	+0.41	+10.6	2
1981-04-26	@ Viking	L 0-2	36.8	1236	1276	19.37%	37.06%	43.57%	-0.41	-10.6	0
1981-05-03	Moss	L 0-2	41.2	1226	1265	33.49%	37.78%	28.73%	-0.03	-15.2	0
1981-05-03	@ Brann	W 2-0	41.2	1265	1226	28.73%	37.78%	33.49%	+0.03	+15.2	2
1981-05-03	Valerenga	L 0-2	43.5	1280	1263	40.80%	37.42%	21.78%	+0.28	-17.5	1
1981-05-03	@ Bryne	W 2-0	43.5	1263	1280	21.78%	37.42%	40.80%	-0.28	+17.5	4
1981-05-03	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	44.1	1219	1250	34.53%	37.77%	27.70%	+0.02	-8.2	0
1981-05-03	@ Fredrikstad	W 1-0	44.1	1250	1219	27.70%	37.77%	34.53%	-0.02	+8.2	3
1981-05-03	Haugar	D 2-2	54.1	1272	1255	40.73%	37.43%	21.84%	+0.28	-0.6	2
1981-05-03	@ Lillestrom	D 2-2	54.1	1255	1272	21.84%	37.43%	40.73%	-0.28	+0.6	2
1981-05-03	Viking	W 2-0	41.9	1193	1287	26.17%	37.40%	36.43%	-0.33	+16.0	2
1981-05-03	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-2	41.9	1287	1193	36.43%	37.40%	26.17%	+0.33	-16.0	2
1981-05-03	Rosenborg	L 0-1	47.3	1301	1247	45.20%	36.77%	18.03%	+0.49	-10.0	2
1981-05-03	@ Start	W 1-0	47.3	1247	1301	18.03%	36.77%	45.20%	-0.49	+10.0	2
1981-05-10	Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	42.7	1256	1259	38.36%	37.63%	24.01%	+0.18	-16.7	2
1981-05-10	@ Haugar	W 2-0	42.7	1259	1256	24.01%	37.63%	38.36%	-0.18	+16.7	5
1981-05-10	Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	35.7	1280	1210	47.01%	36.39%	16.60%	+0.58	+9.4	4
1981-05-10	@ Moss	L 0-2	35.7	1210	1280	16.60%	36.39%	47.01%	-0.58	-9.4	2
1981-05-10	Brann	W 5-0	34.8	1257	1210	44.36%	36.93%	18.71%	+0.45	+24.2	4
1981-05-10	@ Rosenborg	L 0-5	34.8	1210	1257	18.71%	36.93%	44.36%	-0.45	-24.2	0
1981-05-10	Fredrikstad	W 3-1	40.9	1291	1211	48.08%	36.13%	15.79%	+0.64	+7.9	4
1981-05-10	@ Start	L 1-3	40.9	1211	1291	15.79%	36.13%	48.08%	-0.64	-7.9	0
1981-05-10	Lillestrom	D 1-1	48.7	1281	1271	39.94%	37.51%	22.56%	+0.25	-0.7	5
1981-05-10	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	48.7	1271	1281	22.56%	37.51%	39.94%	-0.25	+0.8	3
1981-05-10	Bryne	W 2-1	46.0	1271	1263	39.71%	37.53%	22.76%	+0.24	+5.9	4
1981-05-10	@ Viking	L 1-2	46.0	1263	1271	22.76%	37.53%	39.71%	-0.24	-5.9	1
1981-05-13	Start	D 2-2	54.1	1186	1299	23.85%	37.09%	39.06%	-0.44	+0.5	1
1981-05-13	@ Brann	D 2-2	54.1	1299	1186	39.06%	37.09%	23.85%	+0.44	-0.5	5
1981-05-13	Moss	D 0-0	44.2	1257	1289	34.37%	37.78%	27.85%	+0.01	-0.3	2
1981-05-13	@ Bryne	D 0-0	44.2	1289	1257	27.85%	37.78%	34.37%	-0.01	+0.3	5
1981-05-13	Haugar	D 1-1	48.2	1203	1239	33.84%	37.78%	28.38%	-0.01	-0.2	1
1981-05-13	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	48.2	1239	1203	28.38%	37.78%	33.84%	+0.01	+0.2	3
1981-05-13	Valerenga	L 1-2	50.7	1275	1280	38.08%	37.65%	24.27%	+0.16	-8.3	5
1981-05-13	@ Hamarkameratene	W 2-1	50.7	1280	1275	24.27%	37.65%	38.08%	-0.16	+8.3	7
1981-05-13	Viking	W 6-0	37.6	1272	1277	38.08%	37.65%	24.27%	+0.16	+34.4	5
1981-05-13	@ Lillestrom	L 0-6	37.6	1277	1272	24.27%	37.65%	38.08%	-0.16	-34.4	4
1981-05-13	Rosenborg	D 1-1	48.4	1200	1281	27.69%	37.54%	34.76%	-0.26	+0.3	3
1981-05-13	@ Lyn Oslo	D 1-1	48.4	1281	1200	34.76%	37.54%	27.69%	+0.26	-0.3	5
1981-05-16	Fredrikstad	W 4-2	44.8	1281	1203	47.87%	36.18%	15.95%	+0.63	+7.1	7
1981-05-16	@ Rosenborg	L 2-4	44.8	1203	1281	15.95%	36.18%	47.87%	-0.63	-7.1	1
1981-05-25	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	48.2	1187	1196	37.56%	37.68%	24.76%	+0.14	-0.5	2
1981-05-25	@ Brann	D 1-1	48.2	1196	1187	24.76%	37.68%	37.56%	-0.14	+0.5	2
1981-05-25	Lillestrom	W 2-0	39.3	1290	1306	36.54%	37.73%	25.74%	+0.10	+12.8	7
1981-05-25	@ Moss	L 0-2	39.3	1306	1290	25.74%	37.73%	36.54%	-0.10	-12.9	5
1981-05-25	Bryne	W 3-1	42.7	1288	1256	42.61%	37.20%	20.19%	+0.37	+9.5	9
1981-05-25	@ Rosenborg	L 1-3	42.7	1256	1288	20.19%	37.20%	42.61%	-0.37	-9.5	2
1981-05-25	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	44.6	1298	1200	49.92%	35.62%	14.46%	+0.74	-1.8	6
1981-05-25	@ Start	D 0-0	44.6	1200	1298	14.46%	35.62%	49.92%	-0.74	+1.8	4
1981-05-25	Haugar	D 2-2	54.3	1288	1240	44.61%	36.88%	18.50%	+0.46	-0.9	8
1981-05-25	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	54.3	1240	1288	18.50%	36.88%	44.61%	-0.46	+0.9	4
1981-05-25	Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	39.2	1242	1267	35.43%	37.76%	26.81%	+0.05	+13.2	6
1981-05-25	@ Viking	L 0-2	39.2	1267	1242	26.81%	37.76%	35.43%	-0.05	-13.2	5
1981-06-08	Start	W 2-0	40.4	1247	1297	32.02%	37.76%	30.22%	-0.09	+14.2	4
1981-06-08	@ Bryne	L 0-2	40.4	1297	1247	30.22%	37.76%	32.02%	+0.09	-14.2	6
1981-06-08	Valerenga	W 2-1	49.8	1196	1288	26.38%	37.42%	36.20%	-0.32	+8.0	4
1981-06-08	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-2	49.8	1288	1196	36.20%	37.42%	26.38%	+0.32	-8.0	8
1981-06-08	Moss	L 0-1	43.7	1254	1303	32.15%	37.76%	30.08%	-0.08	-7.8	5
1981-06-08	@ Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	43.7	1303	1254	30.08%	37.76%	32.15%	+0.08	+7.8	9
1981-06-08	Viking	L 1-3	47.7	1240	1255	36.75%	37.72%	25.53%	+0.11	-14.0	4
1981-06-08	@ Haugar	W 3-1	47.7	1255	1240	25.53%	37.72%	36.75%	-0.11	+14.0	8
1981-06-08	Rosenborg	D 1-1	48.9	1293	1298	38.15%	37.64%	24.20%	+0.17	-0.6	6
1981-06-08	@ Lillestrom	D 1-1	48.9	1298	1293	24.20%	37.64%	38.15%	-0.17	+0.6	10
1981-06-08	Brann	W 3-2	50.3	1202	1186	40.70%	37.43%	21.86%	+0.28	+5.5	6
1981-06-08	@ Lyn Oslo	L 2-3	50.3	1186	1202	21.86%	37.43%	40.70%	-0.28	-5.5	2
1981-06-10	Bryne	D 2-2	53.8	1181	1261	27.79%	37.55%	34.65%	-0.26	+0.2	3
1981-06-10	@ Brann	D 2-2	53.8	1261	1181	34.65%	37.55%	27.79%	+0.26	-0.2	5
1981-06-10	Fredrikstad	L 0-5	41.0	1208	1204	39.16%	37.57%	23.27%	+0.21	-39.6	6
1981-06-10	@ Lyn Oslo	W 5-0	41.0	1204	1208	23.27%	37.57%	39.16%	-0.21	+39.6	6
1981-06-10	Haugar	D 1-1	49.1	1310	1226	48.46%	36.03%	15.51%	+0.66	-1.5	10
1981-06-10	@ Moss	D 1-1	49.1	1226	1310	15.51%	36.03%	48.46%	-0.66	+1.5	5
1981-06-10	Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	36.5	1298	1246	44.98%	36.82%	18.20%	+0.48	+10.1	12
1981-06-10	@ Rosenborg	L 0-2	36.5	1246	1298	18.20%	36.82%	44.98%	-0.48	-10.1	5
1981-06-10	Lillestrom	W 2-0	39.0	1282	1293	37.35%	37.69%	24.96%	+0.13	+12.6	8
1981-06-10	@ Start	L 0-2	39.0	1293	1282	24.96%	37.69%	37.35%	-0.13	-12.6	6
1981-06-10	Valerenga	D 1-1	48.6	1269	1280	37.38%	37.69%	24.93%	+0.13	-0.5	9
1981-06-10	@ Viking	D 1-1	48.6	1280	1269	24.93%	37.69%	37.38%	-0.13	+0.5	9
1981-06-21	Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	44.4	1261	1168	49.40%	35.77%	14.83%	+0.71	-1.8	6
1981-06-21	@ Bryne	D 0-0	44.4	1168	1261	14.83%	35.77%	49.40%	-0.71	+1.8	7
1981-06-21	Viking	W 3-0	37.7	1244	1269	35.38%	37.76%	26.86%	+0.05	+19.2	8
1981-06-21	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-3	37.7	1269	1244	26.86%	37.76%	35.38%	-0.05	-19.2	9
1981-06-21	Start	L 0-1	43.1	1236	1295	30.68%	37.72%	31.60%	-0.14	-7.6	5
1981-06-21	@ Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	43.1	1295	1236	31.60%	37.72%	30.68%	+0.14	+7.6	10
1981-06-21	Rosenborg	D 1-1	48.6	1228	1308	27.81%	37.55%	34.64%	-0.26	+0.3	6
1981-06-21	@ Haugar	D 1-1	48.6	1308	1228	34.64%	37.55%	27.81%	+0.26	-0.3	13
1981-06-21	Brann	D 0-0	44.5	1280	1181	50.03%	35.58%	14.39%	+0.74	-1.9	7
1981-06-21	@ Lillestrom	D 0-0	44.5	1181	1280	14.39%	35.58%	50.03%	-0.74	+1.9	4
1981-06-21	Moss	D 2-2	54.3	1280	1309	34.90%	37.77%	27.33%	+0.03	-0.2	10
1981-06-21	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	54.3	1309	1280	27.33%	37.77%	34.90%	-0.03	+0.2	11
1981-06-29	Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	39.8	1183	1228	32.61%	37.77%	29.62%	-0.06	+14.1	6
1981-06-29	@ Brann	L 0-2	39.8	1228	1183	29.62%	37.77%	32.61%	+0.06	-14.0	5
1981-06-29	Fredrikstad	W 2-0	38.5	1259	1263	38.22%	37.64%	24.14%	+0.17	+12.3	8
1981-06-29	@ Bryne	L 0-2	38.5	1263	1259	24.14%	37.64%	38.22%	-0.17	-12.3	8
1981-06-29	Lillestrom	L 1-2	46.1	1170	1278	24.33%	37.16%	38.50%	-0.41	-6.2	7
1981-06-29	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	46.1	1278	1170	38.50%	37.16%	24.33%	+0.41	+6.2	9
1981-06-29	Viking	D 1-1	49.0	1309	1250	45.80%	36.66%	17.54%	+0.52	-1.3	12
1981-06-29	@ Moss	D 1-1	49.0	1250	1309	17.54%	36.66%	45.80%	-0.52	+1.3	10
1981-06-29	Valerenga	D 2-2	54.5	1308	1280	42.18%	37.26%	20.56%	+0.35	-0.7	14
1981-06-29	@ Rosenborg	D 2-2	54.5	1280	1308	20.56%	37.26%	42.18%	-0.35	+0.7	11
1981-06-29	Haugar	L 1-2	53.0	1303	1228	47.44%	36.29%	16.27%	+0.60	-9.8	10
1981-06-29	@ Start	W 2-1	53.0	1228	1303	16.27%	36.29%	47.44%	-0.60	+9.8	8
1981-07-06	Lyn Oslo	W 2-0	36.1	1214	1164	44.81%	36.85%	18.35%	+0.47	+10.2	7
1981-07-06	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	36.1	1164	1214	18.35%	36.85%	44.81%	-0.47	-10.2	7
1981-07-06	Brann	D 0-0	44.0	1238	1197	43.73%	37.03%	19.24%	+0.42	-1.2	9
1981-07-06	@ Haugar	D 0-0	44.0	1197	1238	19.24%	37.03%	43.73%	-0.42	+1.2	7
1981-07-06	Bryne	L 0-1	46.1	1284	1272	40.32%	37.47%	22.20%	+0.26	-9.2	9
1981-07-06	@ Lillestrom	W 1-0	46.1	1272	1284	22.20%	37.47%	40.32%	-0.26	+9.2	10
1981-07-06	Fredrikstad	W 2-1	44.3	1308	1251	45.56%	36.70%	17.73%	+0.51	+5.0	14
1981-07-06	@ Moss	L 1-2	44.3	1251	1308	17.73%	36.70%	45.56%	-0.51	-5.0	8
1981-07-06	Start	W 5-2	45.1	1281	1293	37.12%	37.70%	25.18%	+0.12	+13.5	13
1981-07-06	@ Valerenga	L 2-5	45.1	1293	1281	25.18%	37.70%	37.12%	-0.12	-13.4	10
1981-07-06	Rosenborg	W 2-0	40.8	1251	1307	31.08%	37.73%	31.19%	-0.12	+14.5	12
1981-07-06	@ Viking	L 0-2	40.8	1307	1251	31.19%	37.73%	31.08%	+0.12	-14.5	14
1981-07-13	Valerenga	L 0-1	41.4	1198	1294	25.83%	37.36%	36.81%	-0.34	-6.8	7
1981-07-13	@ Brann	W 1-0	41.4	1294	1198	36.81%	37.36%	25.83%	+0.34	+6.8	15
1981-07-13	Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	44.5	1281	1224	45.46%	36.72%	17.82%	+0.50	-19.0	10
1981-07-13	@ Bryne	W 2-0	44.5	1224	1281	17.82%	36.72%	45.46%	-0.50	+19.0	9
1981-07-13	Lillestrom	D 2-2	54.0	1246	1275	34.78%	37.77%	27.45%	+0.03	-0.2	9
1981-07-13	@ Fredrikstad	D 2-2	54.0	1275	1246	27.45%	37.77%	34.78%	-0.03	+0.2	10
1981-07-13	Haugar	W 1-0	44.0	1154	1237	27.41%	37.52%	35.07%	-0.27	+8.3	9
1981-07-13	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-1	44.0	1237	1154	35.07%	37.52%	27.41%	+0.27	-8.3	9
1981-07-13	Moss	W 3-1	45.0	1293	1313	36.08%	37.74%	26.18%	+0.08	+11.3	16
1981-07-13	@ Rosenborg	L 1-3	45.0	1313	1293	26.18%	37.74%	36.08%	-0.08	-11.3	14
1981-07-13	Viking	W 4-0	35.9	1279	1266	40.44%	37.46%	22.10%	+0.27	+22.0	12
1981-07-13	@ Start	L 0-4	35.9	1266	1279	22.10%	37.46%	40.44%	-0.27	-22.0	12
1981-07-29	Viking	L 1-2	48.4	1191	1243	31.67%	37.75%	30.58%	-0.10	-7.3	7
1981-07-29	@ Brann	W 2-1	48.4	1243	1191	30.58%	37.75%	31.67%	+0.10	+7.3	14
1981-07-29	Haugar	D 1-1	48.5	1262	1229	42.78%	37.18%	20.04%	+0.38	-1.0	11
1981-07-29	@ Bryne	D 1-1	48.5	1229	1262	20.04%	37.18%	42.78%	-0.38	+1.0	10
1981-07-29	Rosenborg	D 0-0	44.2	1245	1304	30.74%	37.72%	31.53%	-0.14	+0.0	10
1981-07-29	@ Fredrikstad	D 0-0	44.2	1304	1245	31.53%	37.72%	30.74%	+0.14	-0.0	17
1981-07-29	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	39.8	1275	1243	42.65%	37.20%	20.15%	+0.37	+5.8	12
1981-07-29	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	39.8	1243	1275	20.15%	37.20%	42.65%	-0.37	-5.8	9
1981-07-29	Valerenga	L 2-4	46.4	1162	1301	21.00%	36.54%	42.47%	-0.58	-8.6	9
1981-07-29	@ Lyn Oslo	W 4-2	46.4	1301	1162	42.47%	36.54%	21.00%	+0.58	+8.6	17
1981-07-29	Moss	L 1-3	48.7	1301	1302	38.67%	37.61%	23.72%	+0.19	-14.5	12
1981-07-29	@ Start	W 3-1	48.7	1302	1301	23.72%	37.61%	38.67%	-0.19	+14.5	16
1981-08-03	Fredrikstad	W 2-1	46.4	1238	1245	37.69%	37.67%	24.64%	+0.15	+6.2	11
1981-08-03	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	46.4	1245	1238	24.64%	37.67%	37.69%	-0.15	-6.2	10
1981-08-03	Lillestrom	L 2-3	53.6	1230	1281	31.73%	37.75%	30.52%	-0.10	-7.0	10
1981-08-03	@ Haugar	W 3-2	53.6	1281	1230	30.52%	37.75%	31.73%	+0.10	+7.0	14
1981-08-03	Brann	W 3-1	39.4	1316	1184	53.25%	34.47%	12.28%	+0.93	+6.4	18
1981-08-03	@ Moss	L 1-3	39.4	1184	1316	12.28%	34.47%	53.25%	-0.93	-6.3	7
1981-08-03	Start	W 4-2	47.4	1304	1287	40.85%	37.42%	21.73%	+0.29	+8.9	19
1981-08-03	@ Rosenborg	L 2-4	47.4	1287	1304	21.73%	37.42%	40.85%	-0.29	-8.9	12
1981-08-03	Bryne	D 2-2	54.5	1309	1261	44.60%	36.89%	18.52%	+0.46	-0.9	18
1981-08-03	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	54.5	1261	1309	18.52%	36.89%	44.60%	-0.46	+0.9	12
1981-08-03	Lyn Oslo	W 3-0	33.0	1251	1153	49.87%	35.63%	14.50%	+0.73	+12.3	16
1981-08-03	@ Viking	L 0-3	33.0	1153	1251	14.50%	35.63%	49.87%	-0.73	-12.3	9
1981-08-10	Rosenborg	L 0-3	35.6	1178	1313	21.39%	36.63%	41.99%	-0.56	-16.3	7
1981-08-10	@ Brann	W 3-0	35.6	1313	1178	41.99%	36.63%	21.39%	+0.56	+16.3	21
1981-08-10	Viking	D 2-2	54.0	1262	1263	38.50%	37.62%	23.88%	+0.18	-0.5	13
1981-08-10	@ Bryne	D 2-2	54.0	1263	1262	23.88%	37.62%	38.50%	-0.18	+0.5	17
1981-08-10	Start	D 2-2	54.0	1239	1278	33.53%	37.78%	28.69%	-0.02	-0.2	11
1981-08-10	@ Fredrikstad	D 2-2	54.0	1278	1239	28.69%	37.78%	33.53%	+0.02	+0.1	13
1981-08-10	Haugar	D 1-1	48.4	1244	1223	41.36%	37.36%	21.28%	+0.31	-0.9	12
1981-08-10	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	48.4	1223	1244	21.28%	37.36%	41.36%	-0.31	+0.9	11
1981-08-10	Valerenga	L 0-2	42.4	1288	1309	36.03%	37.74%	26.22%	+0.08	-16.0	14
1981-08-10	@ Lillestrom	W 2-0	42.4	1309	1288	26.22%	37.74%	36.03%	-0.08	+16.0	20
1981-08-10	Moss	W 5-0	43.0	1141	1322	17.12%	35.34%	47.54%	-0.82	+45.6	11
1981-08-10	@ Lyn Oslo	L 0-5	43.0	1322	1141	47.54%	35.34%	17.12%	+0.82	-45.6	18
1981-08-17	Fredrikstad	L 0-6	41.0	1223	1239	36.67%	37.72%	25.61%	+0.10	-44.9	11
1981-08-17	@ Haugar	W 6-0	41.0	1239	1223	25.61%	37.72%	36.67%	-0.10	+44.9	13
1981-08-17	Bryne	L 0-1	46.1	1277	1261	40.66%	37.44%	21.90%	+0.28	-9.2	18
1981-08-17	@ Moss	W 1-0	46.1	1261	1277	21.90%	37.44%	40.66%	-0.28	+9.2	15
1981-08-17	Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	36.3	1329	1187	54.25%	34.07%	11.68%	+0.98	+3.7	23
1981-08-17	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	36.3	1187	1329	11.68%	34.07%	54.25%	-0.98	-3.7	11
1981-08-17	Brann	W 4-0	32.2	1278	1161	51.78%	35.01%	13.21%	+0.84	+14.9	15
1981-08-17	@ Start	L 0-4	32.2	1161	1278	13.21%	35.01%	51.78%	-0.84	-14.9	7
1981-08-17	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	48.1	1325	1243	48.20%	36.10%	15.70%	+0.64	-10.6	20
1981-08-17	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	48.1	1243	1325	15.70%	36.10%	48.20%	-0.64	+10.6	14
1981-08-17	Lillestrom	D 0-0	44.2	1264	1272	37.57%	37.68%	24.75%	+0.14	-0.6	18
1981-08-17	@ Viking	D 0-0	44.2	1272	1264	24.75%	37.68%	37.57%	-0.14	+0.6	15
1981-08-23	Rosenborg	D 1-1	48.9	1270	1333	30.20%	37.70%	32.10%	-0.16	+0.1	16
1981-08-23	@ Bryne	D 1-1	48.9	1333	1270	32.10%	37.70%	30.20%	+0.16	-0.1	24
1981-08-23	Brann	W 6-0	32.5	1284	1146	53.76%	34.27%	11.97%	+0.96	+19.9	15
1981-08-23	@ Fredrikstad	L 0-6	32.5	1146	1284	11.97%	34.27%	53.76%	-0.96	-19.9	7
1981-08-23	Viking	D 0-0	44.1	1254	1263	37.49%	37.68%	24.83%	+0.14	-0.6	15
1981-08-23	@ Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	44.1	1263	1254	24.83%	37.68%	37.49%	-0.14	+0.6	19
1981-08-23	Valerenga	D 1-1	48.7	1179	1314	21.37%	36.62%	42.00%	-0.56	+0.9	12
1981-08-23	@ Haugar	D 1-1	48.7	1314	1179	42.00%	36.62%	21.37%	+0.56	-0.9	21
1981-08-23	Moss	D 0-0	44.2	1273	1268	39.37%	37.56%	23.07%	+0.22	-0.8	16
1981-08-23	@ Lillestrom	D 0-0	44.2	1268	1273	23.07%	37.56%	39.37%	-0.22	+0.8	19
1981-08-23	Start	L 2-3	51.0	1183	1293	24.14%	37.14%	38.72%	-0.42	-5.8	11
1981-08-23	@ Lyn Oslo	W 3-2	51.0	1293	1183	38.72%	37.14%	24.14%	+0.42	+5.8	17
1981-09-02	Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	42.6	1127	1177	31.90%	37.76%	30.34%	-0.09	+7.6	9
1981-09-02	@ Brann	L 0-1	42.6	1177	1127	30.34%	37.76%	31.90%	+0.09	-7.6	11
1981-09-02	Hamarkameratene	W 2-1	45.7	1268	1253	40.62%	37.44%	21.94%	+0.28	+5.8	21
1981-09-02	@ Moss	L 1-2	45.7	1253	1268	21.94%	37.44%	40.62%	-0.28	-5.8	15
1981-09-02	Lillestrom	D 1-1	49.3	1333	1272	45.96%	36.62%	17.42%	+0.53	-1.3	25
1981-09-02	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	49.3	1272	1333	17.42%	36.62%	45.96%	-0.53	+1.3	17
1981-09-02	Bryne	L 3-4	59.6	1299	1270	42.20%	37.26%	20.54%	+0.35	-8.3	17
1981-09-02	@ Start	W 4-3	59.6	1270	1299	20.54%	37.26%	42.20%	-0.35	+8.3	18
1981-09-02	Fredrikstad	D 1-1	49.1	1313	1304	39.86%	37.51%	22.62%	+0.24	-0.7	22
1981-09-02	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	49.1	1304	1313	22.62%	37.51%	39.86%	-0.24	+0.7	16
1981-09-02	Haugar	W 2-0	35.1	1264	1179	48.47%	36.03%	15.50%	+0.66	+9.0	21
1981-09-02	@ Viking	L 0-2	35.1	1179	1264	15.50%	36.03%	48.47%	-0.66	-9.0	12
1981-09-13	Brann	L 1-2	54.1	1279	1134	54.43%	33.99%	11.58%	+1.00	-11.0	18
1981-09-13	@ Bryne	W 2-1	54.1	1134	1279	11.58%	33.99%	54.43%	-1.00	+11.0	11
1981-09-13	Lyn Oslo	W 3-2	46.6	1305	1169	53.54%	34.36%	12.10%	+0.94	+3.4	18
1981-09-13	@ Fredrikstad	L 2-3	46.6	1169	1305	12.10%	34.36%	53.54%	-0.94	-3.4	11
1981-09-13	Rosenborg	W 3-0	40.4	1247	1332	27.29%	37.51%	35.20%	-0.28	+22.8	17
1981-09-13	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-3	40.4	1332	1247	35.20%	37.51%	27.29%	+0.28	-22.8	25
1981-09-13	Moss	D 0-0	44.0	1171	1274	24.91%	37.24%	37.85%	-0.39	+0.6	13
1981-09-13	@ Haugar	D 0-0	44.0	1274	1171	37.85%	37.24%	24.91%	+0.39	-0.6	22
1981-09-13	Start	D 0-0	44.3	1273	1290	36.47%	37.73%	25.80%	+0.10	-0.5	18
1981-09-13	@ Lillestrom	D 0-0	44.3	1290	1273	25.80%	37.73%	36.47%	-0.10	+0.5	18
1981-09-13	Viking	D 2-2	54.5	1312	1272	43.57%	37.06%	19.37%	+0.41	-0.8	23
1981-09-13	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	54.5	1272	1312	19.37%	37.06%	43.57%	-0.41	+0.8	22
1981-09-27	Lillestrom	W 3-0	41.4	1145	1273	22.18%	36.79%	41.03%	-0.52	+25.3	13
1981-09-27	@ Brann	L 0-3	41.4	1273	1145	41.03%	36.79%	22.18%	+0.52	-25.3	18
1981-09-27	Bryne	L 1-2	46.3	1166	1268	25.13%	37.27%	37.60%	-0.37	-6.3	11
1981-09-27	@ Lyn Oslo	W 2-1	46.3	1268	1166	37.60%	37.27%	25.13%	+0.37	+6.3	20
1981-09-27	Valerenga	D 2-2	54.3	1273	1312	33.63%	37.78%	28.59%	-0.02	-0.2	23
1981-09-27	@ Moss	D 2-2	54.3	1312	1273	28.59%	37.78%	33.63%	+0.02	+0.2	24
1981-09-27	Haugar	L 0-2	46.2	1309	1171	53.78%	34.26%	11.96%	+0.96	-21.8	25
1981-09-27	@ Rosenborg	W 2-0	46.2	1171	1309	11.96%	34.26%	53.78%	-0.96	+21.8	15
1981-09-27	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	48.8	1291	1270	41.31%	37.37%	21.32%	+0.31	-0.9	19
1981-09-27	@ Start	D 1-1	48.8	1270	1291	21.32%	37.37%	41.31%	-0.31	+0.9	18
1981-09-27	Fredrikstad	L 0-2	41.8	1273	1308	34.09%	37.78%	28.14%	+0.00	-15.4	22
1981-09-27	@ Viking	W 2-0	41.8	1308	1273	28.14%	37.78%	34.09%	+0.00	+15.4	20
1981-10-04	Bryne	D 1-1	49.1	1323	1274	44.67%	36.87%	18.46%	+0.47	-1.2	21
1981-10-04	@ Fredrikstad	D 1-1	49.1	1274	1323	18.46%	36.87%	44.67%	-0.47	+1.2	21
1981-10-04	Brann	D 1-1	48.9	1271	1170	50.15%	35.55%	14.30%	+0.75	-1.7	19
1981-10-04	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	48.9	1170	1271	14.30%	35.55%	50.15%	-0.75	+1.7	14
1981-10-04	Start	L 0-1	41.3	1193	1290	25.69%	37.34%	36.97%	-0.35	-6.8	15
1981-10-04	@ Haugar	W 1-0	41.3	1290	1193	36.97%	37.34%	25.69%	+0.35	+6.8	21
1981-10-04	Lyn Oslo	W 1-0	37.6	1248	1160	48.86%	35.92%	15.21%	+0.68	+4.7	20
1981-10-04	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	37.6	1160	1248	15.21%	35.92%	48.86%	-0.68	-4.7	11
1981-10-04	Rosenborg	W 2-1	45.7	1312	1287	41.77%	37.31%	20.92%	+0.33	+5.6	26
1981-10-04	@ Valerenga	L 1-2	45.7	1287	1312	20.92%	37.31%	41.77%	-0.33	-5.6	25
1981-10-04	Moss	W 2-1	46.9	1258	1273	36.68%	37.72%	25.60%	+0.11	+6.4	24
1981-10-04	@ Viking	L 1-2	46.9	1273	1258	25.60%	37.72%	36.68%	-0.11	-6.4	23
1981-10-11	Haugar	W 6-0	37.5	1172	1186	36.87%	37.71%	25.42%	+0.11	+35.4	16
1981-10-11	@ Brann	L 0-6	37.5	1186	1172	25.42%	37.71%	36.87%	-0.11	-35.4	15
1981-10-11	Lillestrom	L 2-4	53.0	1275	1252	41.56%	37.34%	21.10%	+0.32	-13.7	21
1981-10-11	@ Bryne	W 4-2	53.0	1252	1275	21.10%	37.34%	41.56%	-0.32	+13.7	22
1981-10-11	Moss	W 4-1	40.0	1322	1267	45.34%	36.75%	17.91%	+0.50	+12.2	23
1981-10-11	@ Fredrikstad	L 1-4	40.0	1267	1322	17.91%	36.75%	45.34%	-0.50	-12.2	23
1981-10-11	Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	44.0	1155	1269	23.67%	37.06%	39.26%	-0.44	+0.7	12
1981-10-11	@ Lyn Oslo	D 0-0	44.0	1269	1155	39.26%	37.06%	23.67%	+0.44	-0.7	20
1981-10-11	Viking	L 0-1	46.1	1281	1264	40.84%	37.42%	21.74%	+0.29	-9.3	25
1981-10-11	@ Rosenborg	W 1-0	46.1	1264	1281	21.74%	37.42%	40.84%	-0.29	+9.3	26
1981-10-11	Valerenga	L 0-4	40.6	1297	1317	36.02%	37.74%	26.24%	+0.08	-30.3	21
1981-10-11	@ Start	W 4-0	40.6	1317	1297	26.24%	37.74%	36.02%	-0.08	+30.3	28
1981-10-18	Bryne	W 5-2	44.2	1268	1261	39.58%	37.54%	22.88%	+0.23	+12.6	22
1981-10-18	@ Hamarkameratene	L 2-5	44.2	1261	1268	22.88%	37.54%	39.58%	-0.23	-12.6	21
1981-10-18	Lyn Oslo	D 2-2	53.6	1151	1156	38.05%	37.65%	24.30%	+0.16	-0.4	16
1981-10-18	@ Haugar	D 2-2	53.6	1156	1151	24.30%	37.65%	38.05%	-0.16	+0.4	13
1981-10-18	Fredrikstad	L 0-1	43.1	1266	1334	29.38%	37.66%	32.96%	-0.19	-7.4	22
1981-10-18	@ Lillestrom	W 1-0	43.1	1334	1266	32.96%	37.66%	29.38%	+0.19	+7.4	25
1981-10-18	Rosenborg	D 1-1	48.5	1255	1272	36.42%	37.73%	25.85%	+0.09	-0.4	24
1981-10-18	@ Moss	D 1-1	48.5	1272	1255	25.85%	37.73%	36.42%	-0.09	+0.4	26
1981-10-18	Brann	D 2-2	55.2	1348	1208	54.00%	34.17%	11.83%	+0.97	-1.5	29
1981-10-18	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	55.2	1208	1348	11.83%	34.17%	54.00%	-0.97	+1.5	17
1981-10-18	Start	W 5-3	49.3	1274	1267	39.59%	37.54%	22.87%	+0.23	+8.7	28
1981-10-18	@ Viking	L 3-5	49.3	1267	1274	22.87%	37.54%	39.59%	-0.23	-8.7	21

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1981-09-13	11.58%	Brann	1134	2	@ Bryne	1279	1
2	1981-09-27	11.96%	Haugar	1171	2	@ Rosenborg	1309	0
3	1981-08-17	15.70%	Hamarkameratene	1243	1	@ Valerenga	1325	0
4	1981-06-29	16.27%	Haugar	1228	2	@ Start	1303	1
5	1981-08-10	17.12%	@ Lyn Oslo	1141	5	Moss	1322	0
6	1981-07-13	17.82%	Hamarkameratene	1224	2	@ Bryne	1281	0
7	1981-05-03	18.03%	Rosenborg	1247	1	@ Start	1301	0
8	1981-09-02	20.54%	Bryne	1270	4	@ Start	1299	3
9	1981-10-11	21.10%	Lillestrom	1252	4	@ Bryne	1275	2
10	1981-10-11	21.74%	Viking	1264	1	@ Rosenborg	1281	0
11	1981-05-03	21.78%	Valerenga	1263	2	@ Bryne	1280	0
12	1981-08-17	21.90%	Bryne	1261	1	@ Moss	1277	0
13	1981-09-27	22.18%	@ Brann	1145	3	Lillestrom	1273	0
14	1981-07-06	22.20%	Bryne	1272	1	@ Lillestrom	1284	0
15	1981-06-10	23.27%	Fredrikstad	1204	5	@ Lyn Oslo	1208	0
16	1981-07-29	23.72%	Moss	1302	3	@ Start	1301	1
17	1981-05-10	24.01%	Hamarkameratene	1259	2	@ Haugar	1256	0
18	1981-05-13	24.27%	Valerenga	1280	2	@ Hamarkameratene	1275	1
19	1981-06-08	25.53%	Viking	1255	3	@ Haugar	1240	1
20	1981-08-17	25.61%	Fredrikstad	1239	6	@ Haugar	1223	0
21	1981-04-26	26.10%	Start	1293	1	@ Moss	1273	0
22	1981-05-03	26.17%	@ Lyn Oslo	1193	2	Viking	1287	0
23	1981-08-10	26.22%	Valerenga	1309	2	@ Lillestrom	1288	0
24	1981-10-11	26.24%	Valerenga	1317	4	@ Start	1297	0
25	1981-06-08	26.38%	@ Fredrikstad	1196	2	Valerenga	1288	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1981-08-10	45.63	@ Lyn Oslo	5	1141	17.12%	Moss	0	1322	47.54%	35.34%
2	1981-08-17	44.91	Fredrikstad	6	1239	25.61%	@ Haugar	0	1223	36.67%	37.72%
3	1981-06-10	39.64	Fredrikstad	5	1204	23.27%	@ Lyn Oslo	0	1208	39.16%	37.57%
4	1981-10-11	35.43	@ Brann	6	1172	36.87%	Haugar	0	1186	25.42%	37.71%
5	1981-05-13	34.36	@ Lillestrom	6	1272	38.08%	Viking	0	1277	24.27%	37.65%
6	1981-10-11	30.30	Valerenga	4	1317	26.24%	@ Start	0	1297	36.02%	37.74%
7	1981-09-27	25.34	@ Brann	3	1145	22.18%	Lillestrom	0	1273	41.03%	36.79%
8	1981-05-10	24.17	@ Rosenborg	5	1257	44.36%	Brann	0	1210	18.71%	36.93%
9	1981-09-13	22.77	@ Hamarkameratene	3	1247	27.29%	Rosenborg	0	1332	35.20%	37.51%
10	1981-07-13	22.05	@ Start	4	1279	40.44%	Viking	0	1266	22.10%	37.46%
11	1981-09-27	21.82	Haugar	2	1171	11.96%	@ Rosenborg	0	1309	53.78%	34.26%
12	1981-08-23	19.90	@ Fredrikstad	6	1284	53.76%	Brann	0	1146	11.97%	34.27%
13	1981-06-21	19.20	@ Fredrikstad	3	1244	35.38%	Viking	0	1269	26.86%	37.76%
14	1981-07-13	19.01	Hamarkameratene	2	1224	17.82%	@ Bryne	0	1281	45.46%	36.72%
15	1981-05-03	17.48	Valerenga	2	1263	21.78%	@ Bryne	0	1280	40.80%	37.42%
16	1981-05-10	16.70	Hamarkameratene	2	1259	24.01%	@ Haugar	0	1256	38.36%	37.63%
17	1981-08-10	16.32	Rosenborg	3	1313	41.99%	@ Brann	0	1178	21.39%	36.63%
18	1981-05-03	16.04	@ Lyn Oslo	2	1193	26.17%	Viking	0	1287	36.43%	37.40%
19	1981-08-10	15.97	Valerenga	2	1309	26.22%	@ Lillestrom	0	1288	36.03%	37.74%
20	1981-04-26	15.43	@ Valerenga	3	1248	43.48%	Lyn Oslo	0	1209	19.45%	37.07%
21	1981-09-27	15.38	Fredrikstad	2	1308	28.14%	@ Viking	0	1273	34.09%	37.78%
22	1981-05-03	15.20	Moss	2	1265	28.73%	@ Brann	0	1226	33.49%	37.78%
23	1981-08-17	14.86	@ Start	4	1278	51.78%	Brann	0	1161	13.21%	35.01%
24	1981-07-29	14.55	Moss	3	1302	23.72%	@ Start	1	1301	38.67%	37.61%
25	1981-07-06	14.51	@ Viking	2	1251	31.08%	Rosenborg	0	1307	31.19%	37.73%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1981-09-02	59.6	Bryne	4	1270	20.54%	@ Start	3	1299	42.20%	37.26%
2	1981-10-18	55.2	@ Valerenga	2	1348	54.00%	Brann	2	1208	11.83%	34.17%
3	1981-06-29	54.5	@ Rosenborg	2	1308	42.18%	Valerenga	2	1280	20.56%	37.26%
4	1981-08-03	54.5	@ Valerenga	2	1309	44.60%	Bryne	2	1261	18.52%	36.89%
5	1981-09-13	54.5	@ Valerenga	2	1312	43.57%	Viking	2	1272	19.37%	37.06%
6	1981-05-25	54.3	@ Valerenga	2	1288	44.61%	Haugar	2	1240	18.50%	36.88%
7	1981-06-21	54.3	@ Valerenga	2	1280	34.90%	Moss	2	1309	27.33%	37.77%
8	1981-09-27	54.3	@ Moss	2	1273	33.63%	Valerenga	2	1312	28.59%	37.78%
9	1981-05-03	54.1	@ Lillestrom	2	1272	40.73%	Haugar	2	1255	21.84%	37.43%
10	1981-05-13	54.1	@ Brann	2	1186	23.85%	Start	2	1299	39.06%	37.09%
11	1981-09-13	54.1	Brann	2	1134	11.58%	@ Bryne	1	1279	54.43%	33.99%
12	1981-04-26	54.0	@ Hamarkameratene	2	1251	35.99%	Lillestrom	2	1271	26.26%	37.74%
13	1981-07-13	54.0	@ Fredrikstad	2	1246	34.78%	Lillestrom	2	1275	27.45%	37.77%
14	1981-08-10	54.0	@ Bryne	2	1262	38.50%	Viking	2	1263	23.88%	37.62%
15	1981-08-10	54.0	@ Fredrikstad	2	1239	33.53%	Start	2	1278	28.69%	37.78%
16	1981-06-10	53.8	@ Brann	2	1181	27.79%	Bryne	2	1261	34.65%	37.55%
17	1981-08-03	53.6	Lillestrom	3	1281	30.52%	@ Haugar	2	1230	31.73%	37.75%
18	1981-10-18	53.6	@ Haugar	2	1151	38.05%	Lyn Oslo	2	1156	24.30%	37.65%
19	1981-06-29	53.0	Haugar	2	1228	16.27%	@ Start	1	1303	47.44%	36.29%
20	1981-10-11	53.0	Lillestrom	4	1252	21.10%	@ Bryne	2	1275	41.56%	37.34%
21	1981-08-23	51.0	Start	3	1293	38.72%	@ Lyn Oslo	2	1183	24.14%	37.14%
22	1981-05-13	50.7	Valerenga	2	1280	24.27%	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1275	38.08%	37.65%
23	1981-06-08	50.3	@ Lyn Oslo	3	1202	40.70%	Brann	2	1186	21.86%	37.43%
24	1981-06-08	49.8	@ Fredrikstad	2	1196	26.38%	Valerenga	1	1288	36.20%	37.42%
25	1981-09-02	49.3	@ Rosenborg	1	1333	45.96%	Lillestrom	1	1272	17.42%	36.62%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1981-08-17	32.2	@ Start	4	1278	51.78%	Brann	0	1161	13.21%	35.01%
2	1981-08-23	32.5	@ Fredrikstad	6	1284	53.76%	Brann	0	1146	11.97%	34.27%
3	1981-08-03	33.0	@ Viking	3	1251	49.87%	Lyn Oslo	0	1153	14.50%	35.63%
4	1981-05-10	34.8	@ Rosenborg	5	1257	44.36%	Brann	0	1210	18.71%	36.93%
5	1981-04-26	35.1	@ Valerenga	3	1248	43.48%	Lyn Oslo	0	1209	19.45%	37.07%
6	1981-09-02	35.1	@ Viking	2	1264	48.47%	Haugar	0	1179	15.50%	36.03%
7	1981-08-10	35.6	Rosenborg	3	1313	41.99%	@ Brann	0	1178	21.39%	36.63%
8	1981-05-10	35.7	@ Moss	2	1280	47.01%	Lyn Oslo	0	1210	16.60%	36.39%
9	1981-07-13	35.9	@ Start	4	1279	40.44%	Viking	0	1266	22.10%	37.46%
10	1981-07-06	36.1	@ Hamarkameratene	2	1214	44.81%	Lyn Oslo	0	1164	18.35%	36.85%
11	1981-08-17	36.3	@ Rosenborg	1	1329	54.25%	Lyn Oslo	0	1187	11.68%	34.07%
12	1981-06-10	36.5	@ Rosenborg	2	1298	44.98%	Hamarkameratene	0	1246	18.20%	36.82%
13	1981-04-26	36.8	@ Viking	2	1276	43.57%	Brann	0	1236	19.37%	37.06%
14	1981-10-11	37.5	@ Brann	6	1172	36.87%	Haugar	0	1186	25.42%	37.71%
15	1981-05-13	37.6	@ Lillestrom	6	1272	38.08%	Viking	0	1277	24.27%	37.65%
16	1981-10-04	37.6	@ Lillestrom	1	1248	48.86%	Lyn Oslo	0	1160	15.21%	35.92%
17	1981-06-21	37.7	@ Fredrikstad	3	1244	35.38%	Viking	0	1269	26.86%	37.76%
18	1981-06-29	38.5	@ Bryne	2	1259	38.22%	Fredrikstad	0	1263	24.14%	37.64%
19	1981-06-10	39.0	@ Start	2	1282	37.35%	Lillestrom	0	1293	24.96%	37.69%
20	1981-05-25	39.2	@ Viking	2	1242	35.43%	Hamarkameratene	0	1267	26.81%	37.76%
21	1981-05-25	39.3	@ Moss	2	1290	36.54%	Lillestrom	0	1306	25.74%	37.73%
22	1981-08-03	39.4	@ Moss	3	1316	53.25%	Brann	1	1184	12.28%	34.47%
23	1981-06-29	39.8	@ Brann	2	1183	32.61%	Hamarkameratene	0	1228	29.62%	37.77%
24	1981-07-29	39.8	@ Lillestrom	1	1275	42.65%	Hamarkameratene	0	1243	20.15%	37.20%
25	1981-10-11	40.0	@ Fredrikstad	4	1322	45.34%	Moss	1	1267	17.91%	36.75%