1987 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Moss

42 points · 1st Title

Relegated

Mjondalen

25 pts

Start · 25 pts

Hamarkameratene · via playoff

Biggest Overachiever

Moss

8.96 points above expected

42 points · 33.04 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Lillestrom

8.37 points below expected

26 points · 34.37 expected points

League Changes

This was the first season in which Norway awarded 3 points for a win. At the end of a match, a penalty shootout was held with the winner earning 2 points and the loser earning 1 pont.

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Moss Champion	22	13	3	6	42	44	30	+14	33.04	+8.96
2	Molde	22	11	5	6	38	27	20	+7	30.62	+7.38
3	Kongsvinger	22	9	8	5	35	32	22	+10	30.42	+4.58
4	Rosenborg	22	8	11	3	35	33	25	+8	31.24	+3.76
5	Bryne	22	11	1	10	34	32	27	+5	31.24	+2.76
6	Valerenga	22	8	5	9	29	26	27	-1	30.23	-1.23
7	Brann	22	7	6	9	27	25	28	-3	27.80	-0.80
8	Lillestrom	22	7	5	10	26	22	21	+1	34.37	-8.37
9	Hamarkameratene Relegated	22	7	5	10	26	27	34	-7	27.48	-1.48
10	Tromso	22	5	9	8	24	19	31	-12	28.03	-4.03
11	Mjondalen Relegated	22	6	5	11	23	26	34	-8	29.50	-6.50
12	Start Relegated	22	6	5	11	23	30	44	-14	27.82	-4.82

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Moss	42	33.04	+8.96
2	Molde	38	30.62	+7.38
3	Kongsvinger	35	30.42	+4.58
4	Rosenborg	35	31.24	+3.76
5	Bryne	34	31.24	+2.76

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Lillestrom	26	34.37	-8.37
2	Mjondalen	23	29.50	-6.50
3	Start	23	27.82	-4.82
4	Tromso	24	28.03	-4.03
5	Hamarkameratene	26	27.48	-1.48

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Moss	5	May 23 – Jun 27	1 in 142
2	Bryne	4	May 9 – May 23	1 in 80
3	Kongsvinger	3	Aug 29 – Sep 12	1 in 24
4	Rosenborg	3	Jul 11 – Aug 8	1 in 24
5	Molde	4	Sep 5 – Sep 26	1 in 23

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Start	5	Jun 27 – Aug 8	1 in 159
2	Bryne	4	Sep 23 – Oct 10	1 in 109
3	Lillestrom	3	Jun 8 – Jun 20	1 in 34
4	Brann	4	Sep 5 – Oct 3	1 in 24
5	Mjondalen	3	Sep 5 – Sep 26	1 in 15

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Kongsvinger	13	Jul 4 – Oct 10	1 in 352
2	Molde	8	May 16 – Jul 4	1 in 51
3	Rosenborg	8	Jun 27 – Aug 29	1 in 34
4	Start	4	Aug 29 – Sep 19	1 in 11
5	Moss	6	Jul 11 – Aug 29	1 in 10

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Mjondalen	11	Jul 4 – Sep 26	1 in 163
2	Rosenborg	6	May 23 – Jul 4	1 in 20
3	Start	7	Jun 27 – Aug 22	1 in 19
4	Moss	5	Aug 29 – Sep 26	1 in 19
5	Kongsvinger	6	May 2 – Jun 8	1 in 17

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Moss	1195	42	-7	7	7.5	-0.5
Molde	1177	38	+1	9	7.9	+1.1
Kongsvinger	1210	35	+40	13	7.9	+5.1
Rosenborg	1178	35	+17	10	7.0	+3.0
Bryne	1146	34	-35	3	7.2	-4.2
Valerenga	1140	29	+20	10	6.9	+3.1
Brann	1130	27	-9	3	6.0	-3.0
Hamarkameratene	1117	26	+5	9	6.5	+2.5
Lillestrom	1173	26	-13	4	7.1	-3.1
Tromso	1084	24	-21	7	6.6	+0.4
Start	1099	23	-4	5	5.8	-0.8
Mjondalen	1113	23	-25	3	6.0	-3.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRA	BRY	HAM	KON	LIL	MJO	MOL	MOS	ROS	STA	TRO	VAL
Brann	—	1-0-1 2.55	0-1-1 2.88	1-0-1 2.76	0-1-1 2.45	0-1-1 2.76	0-0-2 2.45	1-0-1 2.34	0-2-0 2.50	1-0-1 2.96	1-1-0 2.76	2-0-0 2.63
Bryne	1-0-1 2.92	—	1-0-1 2.95	1-0-1 2.87	2-0-0 2.52	2-0-0 2.94	1-0-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.57	0-1-1 2.88	1-0-1 3.09	0-0-2 3.20	1-0-1 2.84
Hamarkameratene	1-1-0 2.59	1-0-1 2.54	—	1-1-0 2.49	1-0-1 2.30	0-1-1 2.53	0-0-2 2.50	1-0-1 2.30	1-1-0 2.24	1-0-1 2.79	0-1-1 2.72	0-0-2 2.63
Kongsvinger	1-0-1 2.71	1-0-1 2.60	0-1-1 2.97	—	2-0-0 2.45	1-1-0 2.88	1-1-0 2.70	1-0-1 2.55	0-2-0 2.54	0-1-1 3.03	1-1-0 3.03	1-1-0 2.61
Lillestrom	1-1-0 3.03	0-0-2 2.94	1-0-1 3.17	0-0-2 3.03	—	2-0-0 2.90	1-1-0 2.64	0-0-2 2.87	0-1-1 2.92	1-1-0 3.20	1-0-1 3.25	0-1-1 3.06
Mjondalen	1-1-0 2.71	0-0-2 2.52	1-1-0 2.94	0-1-1 2.63	0-0-2 2.58	—	0-1-1 2.86	1-0-1 2.61	0-0-2 2.83	1-0-1 2.98	1-0-1 2.76	1-1-0 2.57
Molde	2-0-0 3.04	1-0-1 2.60	2-0-0 2.99	0-1-1 2.76	0-1-1 2.82	1-1-0 2.60	—	0-0-2 2.79	1-1-0 2.66	1-0-1 2.78	1-1-0 2.85	2-0-0 2.73
Moss	1-0-1 3.14	1-0-1 2.90	1-0-1 3.17	1-0-1 2.94	2-0-0 2.59	1-0-1 2.88	2-0-0 2.68	—	1-1-0 2.81	1-1-0 3.05	1-1-0 3.10	1-0-1 3.05
Rosenborg	0-2-0 2.97	1-1-0 2.59	0-1-1 3.23	0-2-0 2.93	1-1-0 2.55	2-0-0 2.64	0-1-1 2.80	0-1-1 2.68	—	2-0-0 3.06	1-1-0 3.03	1-1-0 2.97
Start	1-0-1 2.52	1-0-1 2.41	1-0-1 2.67	1-1-0 2.43	0-1-1 2.27	1-0-1 2.48	1-0-1 2.68	0-1-1 2.46	0-0-2 2.43	—	0-2-0 2.76	0-0-2 2.63
Tromso	0-1-1 2.71	2-0-0 2.29	1-1-0 2.75	0-1-1 2.43	1-0-1 2.23	1-0-1 2.71	0-1-1 2.63	0-1-1 2.36	0-1-1 2.45	0-2-0 2.71	—	0-1-1 2.56
Valerenga	0-0-2 2.85	1-0-1 2.62	2-0-0 2.85	0-1-1 2.86	1-1-0 2.42	0-1-1 2.89	0-0-2 2.75	1-0-1 2.42	0-1-1 2.50	2-0-0 2.85	1-1-0 2.90	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.56	+7.5
Allowed	0.30	-5.2
Differential	0.87	+6.6

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.85%	8.71%	6.44%	3.41%	1.14%	0.76%	30.30%
1	8.71%	11.36%	6.44%	4.55%	2.27%	1.14%	34.47%
2	6.44%	6.44%	4.55%	0.76%	1.14%	—	19.32%
3	3.41%	4.55%	0.76%	—	0.38%	—	9.09%
4	1.14%	2.27%	1.14%	0.38%	—	—	4.92%
5+	0.76%	1.14%	—	—	—	—	1.89%
Total	30.30%	34.47%	19.32%	9.09%	4.92%	1.89%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.30	1.30	+0.00
SD	1.25	1.25	1.87
CV	0.96	0.96	—
Max	6	6	+5
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
1	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	40.91%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	31.82%	31.82%	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.14	1.27	-0.14
SD	1.21	1.20	1.81
CV	1.06	0.94	—
Max	5	4	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	22.73%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	31.82%
1	13.64%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
2	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	45.45%	22.73%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.23	+0.23
SD	1.41	1.02	1.88
CV	0.97	0.83	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	27.27%
1	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	40.91%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	9.09%	—	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	31.82%	22.73%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	1.55	-0.32
SD	1.11	1.57	2.06
CV	0.90	1.01	—
Max	4	6	+3
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	22.73%
1	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	36.36%
2	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.91%	36.36%	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.00	+0.45
SD	1.18	1.20	1.50
CV	0.81	1.20	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	—	45.45%
1	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.00	0.95	+0.05
SD	1.31	0.90	1.53
CV	1.31	0.94	—
Max	5	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	—	13.64%	—	—	31.82%
1	—	13.64%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	31.82%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	13.64%	—	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	31.82%	9.09%	22.73%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.55	-0.36
SD	1.05	1.37	2.01
CV	0.89	0.89	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	27.27%
1	9.09%	9.09%	13.64%	—	—	—	31.82%
2	18.18%	18.18%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.45%	31.82%	18.18%	—	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	0.91	+0.32
SD	1.02	1.19	1.81
CV	0.83	1.31	—
Max	4	5	+4
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	—	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
1	9.09%	4.55%	—	9.09%	—	—	22.73%
2	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
5+	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
Total	22.73%	31.82%	31.82%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	2.00	1.36	+0.64
SD	1.69	1.00	2.15
CV	0.85	0.73	—
Max	5	3	+5
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
1	—	36.36%	—	—	4.55%	—	40.91%
2	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	54.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.50	1.14	+0.36
SD	1.14	0.99	1.62
CV	0.76	0.87	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	9.09%	36.36%
2	—	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	13.64%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	27.27%	18.18%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.36	2.00	-0.64
SD	1.53	1.57	2.32
CV	1.12	0.79	—
Max	6	5	+5
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	40.91%
1	9.09%	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	31.82%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	0.86	1.41	-0.55
SD	0.89	1.44	1.71
CV	1.03	1.02	—
Max	3	5	+2
Min	0	0	-5

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
1	13.64%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
2	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	36.36%	22.73%	27.27%	9.09%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.23	-0.05
SD	1.14	1.19	1.86
CV	0.96	0.97	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Kongsvinger	1210	35	30.42	+4.58	81.0%	17	22	26	30	35	40	45
Moss	1195	42	33.04	+8.96	95.0%	23	26	29	32	36	42	47
Rosenborg	1178	35	31.24	+3.76	76.0%	12	20	27	32	35	40	45
Molde	1177	38	30.62	+7.38	93.0%	16	22	26	30	34	40	48
Lillestrom	1173	26	34.37	-8.37	12.0%	17	21	30	35	39	45	53
Bryne	1146	34	31.24	+2.76	73.0%	16	21	28	31	35	42	46
Valerenga	1140	29	30.23	-1.23	45.0%	20	22	26	30	34	39	42
Brann	1130	27	27.80	-0.80	47.0%	15	18	25	28	31	37	40
Hamarkameratene	1117	26	27.48	-1.48	44.0%	14	18	24	28	31	36	40
Mjondalen	1113	23	29.50	-6.50	17.0%	13	20	26	29	33	39	42
Start	1099	23	27.82	-4.82	27.0%	12	19	22	27	32	37	49
Tromso	1084	24	28.03	-4.03	24.0%	15	18	25	28	32	37	42

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+21.21%

Clear Edge

47.73%25.76%26.52%

Elo Value

Home Edge

174 Elo

0.006 goals per Elo point

074.83500

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.55 goals

Home-Tilted

-2+0.43+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

7.8

Wide Open

134611

Champion Preseason Odds

16%

Moss, 2nd of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.18/gm

Tight Race

00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 4.64 * Some Luck: 4.64 to 6.96 * Lucky: 6.96 to 9.28 * Wild Swing: 9.28 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.53 * Close: 2.53 to 3.8 * Off: 3.8 to 5.06 * Way Off: 5.06 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 2.11 * A Surprise: 2.11 to 3.38 * Several Surprises: 3.38 to 4.64 * Many Surprises: 4.64 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

5.27 points

Some Luck

05.8014

Average Finish Error

Expected

2.50

Pinpoint

03.168

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

95.00%

Moss

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

12.00%

Lillestrom

050

Season Outliers

Expected

0 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 3

As Expected

02.13

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.11

Balanced

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 39.77

1.04

Coin-Flip Parity

0.91.351.551.752.5

Interquartile Edge

59%

Even

50%61.5%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

67%

Even

50%69%100%

Close Games

Expected

58%

Frequent

0%58%100%

Blowouts

Expected

17%

Occasional

0%18%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.64

Hard to Predict

00.632

Matchup Imbalance

0.27

Very Even

00.320.380.5

Strangeness

Expected

0.83

As Expected

01.002

Repeatability

-0.33

Weak Carryover

00.280.481

Upset Rate

Expected

28%

Very Upset-Prone

0%27%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

28%

Very Shaky

0%25%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.12 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.12 to 0.18 * Above Noise: 0.18 to 0.24 * Well Above Noise: 0.24 and up.

Probability calibration

0.44

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

-0.21

Overconfident

01.002.56977

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.077

Well Within Noise

00.1190.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Moss	16.00%	12.00%	9.00%	10.00%	15.00%	6.00%	11.00%	7.00%	12.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—
Molde	9.00%	8.00%	7.00%	9.00%	9.00%	9.00%	10.00%	11.00%	6.00%	10.00%	5.00%	7.00%
Kongsvinger	6.00%	14.00%	8.00%	8.00%	7.00%	13.00%	7.00%	4.00%	7.00%	10.00%	9.00%	7.00%
Rosenborg	12.00%	10.00%	17.00%	11.00%	6.00%	8.00%	4.00%	7.00%	4.00%	12.00%	5.00%	4.00%
Bryne	11.00%	6.00%	11.00%	13.00%	10.00%	5.00%	13.00%	6.00%	9.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%
Valerenga	6.00%	8.00%	11.00%	8.00%	11.00%	11.00%	7.00%	9.00%	8.00%	7.00%	11.00%	3.00%
Brann	—	7.00%	6.00%	4.00%	6.00%	7.00%	12.00%	13.00%	12.00%	12.00%	11.00%	10.00%
Lillestrom	23.00%	16.00%	10.00%	9.00%	4.00%	10.00%	4.00%	6.00%	10.00%	1.00%	3.00%	4.00%
Hamarkameratene	3.00%	4.00%	5.00%	8.00%	4.00%	8.00%	10.00%	9.00%	10.00%	10.00%	12.00%	17.00%
Tromso	2.00%	4.00%	3.00%	10.00%	11.00%	4.00%	10.00%	9.00%	9.00%	14.00%	10.00%	14.00%
Mjondalen	5.00%	9.00%	7.00%	5.00%	8.00%	16.00%	7.00%	8.00%	6.00%	8.00%	11.00%	10.00%
Start	7.00%	2.00%	6.00%	5.00%	9.00%	3.00%	5.00%	11.00%	7.00%	9.00%	17.00%	19.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Moss	98.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Lillestrom	92.00%	1.00%	7.00%
Rosenborg	79.00%	12.00%	9.00%
Bryne	84.00%	6.00%	10.00%
Molde	78.00%	10.00%	12.00%
Valerenga	79.00%	7.00%	14.00%
Kongsvinger	74.00%	10.00%	16.00%
Brann	67.00%	12.00%	21.00%
Mjondalen	71.00%	8.00%	21.00%
Tromso	62.00%	14.00%	24.00%
Hamarkameratene	61.00%	10.00%	29.00%
Start	55.00%	9.00%	36.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1987-05-02	Kongsvinger	W 2-1	45.0	1141	1145	46.12%	26.63%	27.25%	+0.40	+5.1	3
1987-05-02	@ Brann	L 1-2	45.0	1145	1141	27.25%	26.63%	46.12%	-0.40	-5.1	0
1987-05-02	Bryne	W 1-0	39.0	1135	1133	47.03%	26.49%	26.48%	+0.44	+5.3	3
1987-05-02	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	39.0	1133	1135	26.48%	26.49%	47.03%	-0.44	-5.3	0
1987-05-02	Start	L 1-2	50.1	1131	1151	44.01%	26.90%	29.09%	+0.31	-7.4	0
1987-05-02	@ Molde	W 2-1	50.1	1151	1131	29.09%	26.90%	44.01%	-0.31	+7.3	3
1987-05-02	Lillestrom	W 2-1	47.0	1144	1195	39.63%	27.25%	33.12%	+0.13	+5.9	3
1987-05-02	@ Moss	L 1-2	47.0	1195	1144	33.12%	27.25%	39.63%	-0.13	-5.9	0
1987-05-02	Mjondalen	W 3-0	34.3	1145	1160	44.73%	26.82%	28.46%	+0.34	+15.3	3
1987-05-02	@ Rosenborg	L 0-3	34.3	1160	1145	28.46%	26.82%	44.73%	-0.34	-15.3	0
1987-05-02	Tromso	D 0-0	48.5	1148	1131	49.06%	26.13%	24.81%	+0.53	-1.0	1
1987-05-02	@ Valerenga	D 0-0	48.5	1131	1148	24.81%	26.13%	49.06%	-0.53	+1.0	1
1987-05-09	Molde	W 2-1	44.6	1128	1124	47.34%	26.44%	26.22%	+0.46	+4.9	3
1987-05-09	@ Bryne	L 1-2	44.6	1124	1128	26.22%	26.44%	47.34%	-0.46	-4.9	0
1987-05-09	Valerenga	D 2-2	59.0	1140	1147	45.81%	26.67%	27.52%	+0.39	-0.5	1
1987-05-09	@ Kongsvinger	D 2-2	59.0	1147	1140	27.52%	26.67%	45.81%	-0.39	+0.5	2
1987-05-09	Brann	D 0-0	48.8	1189	1146	52.33%	25.41%	22.27%	+0.68	-1.3	1
1987-05-09	@ Lillestrom	D 0-0	48.8	1146	1189	22.27%	25.41%	52.33%	-0.68	+1.3	4
1987-05-09	Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	35.6	1144	1141	47.20%	26.46%	26.34%	+0.45	+9.9	3
1987-05-09	@ Mjondalen	L 0-2	35.6	1141	1144	26.34%	26.46%	47.20%	-0.45	-9.9	3
1987-05-09	Moss	D 2-2	59.1	1159	1149	47.94%	26.34%	25.72%	+0.48	-0.6	4
1987-05-09	@ Start	D 2-2	59.1	1149	1159	25.72%	26.34%	47.94%	-0.48	+0.6	4
1987-05-09	Rosenborg	D 1-1	53.0	1132	1160	42.93%	27.01%	30.06%	+0.27	-0.5	2
1987-05-09	@ Tromso	D 1-1	53.0	1160	1132	30.06%	27.01%	42.93%	-0.27	+0.5	4
1987-05-16	Valerenga	W 1-0	39.1	1147	1148	46.65%	26.55%	26.80%	+0.43	+5.3	7
1987-05-16	@ Brann	L 0-1	39.1	1148	1147	26.80%	26.55%	46.65%	-0.43	-5.3	2
1987-05-16	Tromso	D 1-1	53.2	1131	1131	46.70%	26.54%	26.76%	+0.43	-0.7	4
1987-05-16	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	53.2	1131	1131	26.76%	26.54%	46.70%	-0.43	+0.7	3
1987-05-16	Start	W 5-1	35.9	1188	1158	50.65%	25.80%	23.55%	+0.60	+14.2	4
1987-05-16	@ Lillestrom	L 1-5	35.9	1158	1188	23.55%	25.80%	50.65%	-0.60	-14.2	4
1987-05-16	Mjondalen	W 1-0	40.5	1119	1154	41.91%	27.10%	30.98%	+0.23	+6.0	3
1987-05-16	@ Molde	L 0-1	40.5	1154	1119	30.98%	27.10%	41.91%	-0.23	-6.0	3
1987-05-16	Bryne	L 0-2	42.3	1150	1133	48.98%	26.15%	24.87%	+0.53	-16.0	4
1987-05-16	@ Moss	W 2-0	42.3	1133	1150	24.87%	26.15%	48.98%	-0.53	+16.0	6
1987-05-16	Kongsvinger	D 0-0	48.6	1160	1140	49.41%	26.06%	24.52%	+0.55	-1.0	5
1987-05-16	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	48.6	1140	1160	24.52%	26.06%	49.41%	-0.55	+1.0	2
1987-05-20	Lillestrom	W 1-0	41.4	1149	1202	39.41%	27.26%	33.33%	+0.12	+6.3	9
1987-05-20	@ Bryne	L 0-1	41.4	1202	1149	33.33%	27.26%	39.41%	-0.12	-6.3	4
1987-05-20	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	45.5	1141	1130	48.16%	26.30%	25.54%	+0.49	-8.4	2
1987-05-20	@ Kongsvinger	W 1-0	45.5	1130	1141	25.54%	26.30%	48.16%	-0.49	+8.4	7
1987-05-20	Moss	W 3-0	33.2	1148	1134	48.59%	26.22%	25.19%	+0.51	+13.8	6
1987-05-20	@ Mjondalen	L 0-3	33.2	1134	1148	25.19%	26.22%	48.59%	-0.51	-13.8	4
1987-05-20	Brann	W 3-1	41.9	1144	1152	45.57%	26.71%	27.72%	+0.38	+8.9	7
1987-05-20	@ Start	L 1-3	41.9	1152	1144	27.72%	26.71%	45.57%	-0.38	-8.9	7
1987-05-20	Molde	D 0-0	48.4	1132	1125	47.71%	26.38%	25.91%	+0.47	-0.9	4
1987-05-20	@ Tromso	D 0-0	48.4	1125	1132	25.91%	26.38%	47.71%	-0.47	+0.9	4
1987-05-20	Rosenborg	L 1-2	50.3	1143	1159	44.49%	26.85%	28.66%	+0.33	-7.4	2
1987-05-20	@ Valerenga	W 2-1	50.3	1159	1143	28.66%	26.85%	44.49%	-0.33	+7.4	8
1987-05-23	Rosenborg	D 1-1	53.1	1144	1167	43.62%	26.94%	29.44%	+0.30	-0.5	8
1987-05-23	@ Brann	D 1-1	53.1	1167	1144	29.44%	26.94%	43.62%	-0.30	+0.5	9
1987-05-23	Valerenga	L 1-3	47.7	1138	1135	47.19%	26.46%	26.35%	+0.45	-13.5	7
1987-05-23	@ Hamarkameratene	W 3-1	47.7	1135	1138	26.35%	26.46%	47.19%	-0.45	+13.4	5
1987-05-23	Mjondalen	W 1-0	37.9	1196	1162	51.14%	25.69%	23.17%	+0.63	+4.7	7
1987-05-23	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	37.9	1162	1196	23.17%	25.69%	51.14%	-0.63	-4.7	6
1987-05-23	Kongsvinger	D 1-1	53.1	1125	1133	45.80%	26.67%	27.52%	+0.39	-0.7	5
1987-05-23	@ Molde	D 1-1	53.1	1133	1125	27.52%	26.67%	45.80%	-0.39	+0.7	3
1987-05-23	Tromso	W 4-2	45.7	1120	1131	45.30%	26.74%	27.96%	+0.37	+8.0	7
1987-05-23	@ Moss	L 2-4	45.7	1131	1120	27.96%	26.74%	45.30%	-0.37	-8.1	4
1987-05-23	Bryne	L 0-1	45.0	1153	1155	46.39%	26.59%	27.02%	+0.42	-8.1	7
1987-05-23	@ Start	W 1-0	45.0	1155	1153	27.02%	26.59%	46.39%	-0.42	+8.1	12
1987-06-08	Brann	L 1-2	51.5	1163	1143	49.41%	26.06%	24.53%	+0.55	-8.1	12
1987-06-08	@ Bryne	W 2-1	51.5	1143	1163	24.53%	26.06%	49.41%	-0.55	+8.0	11
1987-06-08	Moss	L 0-1	45.3	1133	1128	47.39%	26.43%	26.18%	+0.46	-8.3	3
1987-06-08	@ Kongsvinger	W 1-0	45.3	1128	1133	26.18%	26.43%	47.39%	-0.46	+8.3	10
1987-06-08	Start	W 2-1	44.3	1157	1145	48.42%	26.25%	25.33%	+0.50	+4.8	9
1987-06-08	@ Mjondalen	L 1-2	44.3	1145	1157	25.33%	26.25%	48.42%	-0.50	-4.8	7
1987-06-08	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	53.5	1167	1125	52.16%	25.45%	22.39%	+0.67	-1.1	10
1987-06-08	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	53.5	1125	1167	22.39%	25.45%	52.16%	-0.67	+1.1	8
1987-06-08	Lillestrom	W 1-0	42.4	1123	1201	35.93%	27.32%	36.75%	-0.02	+6.8	7
1987-06-08	@ Tromso	L 0-1	42.4	1201	1123	36.75%	27.32%	35.93%	+0.02	-6.8	7
1987-06-08	Molde	L 1-2	51.6	1149	1125	49.84%	25.97%	24.19%	+0.57	-8.1	5
1987-06-08	@ Valerenga	W 2-1	51.6	1125	1149	24.19%	25.97%	49.84%	-0.57	+8.1	8
1987-06-13	Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	48.6	1151	1126	49.99%	25.94%	24.07%	+0.57	-1.1	12
1987-06-13	@ Brann	D 0-0	48.6	1126	1151	24.07%	25.94%	49.99%	-0.57	+1.1	9
1987-06-13	Mjondalen	W 3-0	34.0	1155	1162	45.85%	26.67%	27.48%	+0.39	+14.9	15
1987-06-13	@ Bryne	L 0-3	34.0	1162	1155	27.48%	26.67%	45.85%	-0.39	-14.9	9
1987-06-13	Kongsvinger	L 0-2	43.8	1194	1125	55.42%	24.56%	20.02%	+0.83	-17.7	7
1987-06-13	@ Lillestrom	W 2-0	43.8	1125	1194	20.02%	24.56%	55.42%	-0.83	+17.7	6
1987-06-13	Rosenborg	D 1-1	53.0	1133	1166	42.24%	27.08%	30.68%	+0.24	-0.4	9
1987-06-13	@ Molde	D 1-1	53.0	1166	1133	30.68%	27.08%	42.24%	-0.24	+0.4	11
1987-06-13	Valerenga	W 1-0	39.3	1137	1140	46.22%	26.61%	27.17%	+0.41	+5.4	13
1987-06-13	@ Moss	L 0-1	39.3	1140	1137	27.17%	26.61%	46.22%	-0.41	-5.4	5
1987-06-13	Tromso	D 2-2	59.1	1140	1130	48.06%	26.32%	25.63%	+0.49	-0.6	8
1987-06-13	@ Start	D 2-2	59.1	1130	1140	25.63%	26.32%	48.06%	-0.49	+0.6	8
1987-06-20	Molde	L 0-2	41.6	1127	1133	46.04%	26.64%	27.32%	+0.40	-15.2	9
1987-06-20	@ Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	41.6	1133	1127	27.32%	26.64%	46.04%	-0.40	+15.2	12
1987-06-20	Start	L 3-4	58.4	1143	1139	47.20%	26.46%	26.33%	+0.45	-7.2	6
1987-06-20	@ Kongsvinger	W 4-3	58.4	1139	1143	26.33%	26.46%	47.20%	-0.45	+7.2	11
1987-06-20	Brann	W 2-0	35.9	1147	1150	46.37%	26.59%	27.04%	+0.41	+10.1	12
1987-06-20	@ Mjondalen	L 0-2	35.9	1150	1147	27.04%	26.59%	46.37%	-0.41	-10.1	12
1987-06-20	Moss	L 1-4	45.5	1166	1142	49.94%	25.95%	24.11%	+0.57	-19.9	11
1987-06-20	@ Rosenborg	W 4-1	45.5	1142	1166	24.11%	25.95%	49.94%	-0.57	+19.9	16
1987-06-20	Bryne	W 3-1	43.2	1130	1170	41.30%	27.15%	31.55%	+0.20	+9.9	11
1987-06-20	@ Tromso	L 1-3	43.2	1170	1130	31.55%	27.15%	41.30%	-0.20	-9.9	15
1987-06-20	Lillestrom	W 2-0	37.5	1135	1176	41.13%	27.16%	31.70%	+0.19	+11.5	8
1987-06-20	@ Valerenga	L 0-2	37.5	1176	1135	31.70%	27.16%	41.13%	-0.19	-11.5	7
1987-06-27	Molde	L 0-2	41.5	1140	1148	45.69%	26.69%	27.62%	+0.39	-15.1	12
1987-06-27	@ Brann	W 2-0	41.5	1148	1140	27.62%	26.69%	45.69%	-0.39	+15.1	15
1987-06-27	Kongsvinger	W 4-1	37.8	1160	1135	49.99%	25.94%	24.07%	+0.57	+11.2	18
1987-06-27	@ Bryne	L 1-4	37.8	1135	1160	24.07%	25.94%	49.99%	-0.57	-11.2	6
1987-06-27	Rosenborg	D 1-1	53.3	1165	1147	49.11%	26.12%	24.77%	+0.53	-0.9	8
1987-06-27	@ Lillestrom	D 1-1	53.3	1147	1165	24.77%	26.12%	49.11%	-0.53	+0.9	12
1987-06-27	Tromso	W 3-0	33.1	1157	1140	48.97%	26.15%	24.88%	+0.53	+13.7	15
1987-06-27	@ Mjondalen	L 0-3	33.1	1140	1157	24.88%	26.15%	48.97%	-0.53	-13.7	11
1987-06-27	Hamarkameratene	W 4-1	36.8	1162	1112	53.11%	25.21%	21.68%	+0.72	+10.2	19
1987-06-27	@ Moss	L 1-4	36.8	1112	1162	21.68%	25.21%	53.11%	-0.72	-10.2	9
1987-06-27	Valerenga	L 1-3	47.6	1146	1147	46.71%	26.54%	26.75%	+0.43	-13.3	11
1987-06-27	@ Start	W 3-1	47.6	1147	1146	26.75%	26.54%	46.71%	-0.43	+13.3	11
1987-07-04	Moss	W 3-1	43.5	1125	1172	40.26%	27.22%	32.52%	+0.16	+10.1	15
1987-07-04	@ Brann	L 1-3	43.5	1172	1125	32.52%	27.22%	40.26%	-0.16	-10.1	19
1987-07-04	Start	W 3-0	35.0	1102	1133	42.51%	27.05%	30.43%	+0.25	+16.2	12
1987-07-04	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-3	35.0	1133	1102	30.43%	27.05%	42.51%	-0.25	-16.2	11
1987-07-04	Tromso	D 0-0	48.4	1124	1127	46.42%	26.58%	26.99%	+0.42	-0.8	7
1987-07-04	@ Kongsvinger	D 0-0	48.4	1127	1124	26.99%	26.58%	46.42%	-0.42	+0.8	12
1987-07-04	Lillestrom	D 0-0	48.4	1163	1164	46.62%	26.55%	26.82%	+0.43	-0.8	16
1987-07-04	@ Molde	D 0-0	48.4	1164	1163	26.82%	26.55%	46.62%	-0.43	+0.8	9
1987-07-04	Bryne	D 2-2	58.9	1147	1172	43.49%	26.96%	29.56%	+0.29	-0.4	13
1987-07-04	@ Rosenborg	D 2-2	58.9	1172	1147	29.56%	26.96%	43.49%	-0.29	+0.4	19
1987-07-04	Mjondalen	D 2-2	59.0	1160	1171	45.26%	26.75%	27.99%	+0.37	-0.5	12
1987-07-04	@ Valerenga	D 2-2	59.0	1171	1160	27.99%	26.75%	45.26%	-0.37	+0.5	16
1987-07-11	Valerenga	W 2-1	44.4	1172	1159	48.39%	26.26%	25.36%	+0.50	+4.8	22
1987-07-11	@ Bryne	L 1-2	44.4	1159	1172	25.36%	26.26%	48.39%	-0.50	-4.8	12
1987-07-11	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	37.3	1165	1118	52.71%	25.31%	21.98%	+0.70	+4.5	12
1987-07-11	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	37.3	1118	1165	21.98%	25.31%	52.71%	-0.70	-4.5	12
1987-07-11	Kongsvinger	D 1-1	53.6	1171	1123	52.89%	25.26%	21.84%	+0.71	-1.2	17
1987-07-11	@ Mjondalen	D 1-1	53.6	1123	1171	21.84%	25.26%	52.89%	-0.71	+1.2	8
1987-07-11	Molde	W 5-0	33.8	1162	1162	46.72%	26.54%	26.74%	+0.43	+23.4	22
1987-07-11	@ Moss	L 0-5	33.8	1162	1162	26.74%	26.54%	46.72%	-0.43	-23.4	16
1987-07-11	Rosenborg	L 1-3	46.5	1117	1147	42.64%	27.04%	30.32%	+0.26	-12.4	11
1987-07-11	@ Start	W 3-1	46.5	1147	1117	30.32%	27.04%	42.64%	-0.26	+12.4	16
1987-07-11	Brann	D 1-1	53.1	1127	1135	45.74%	26.68%	27.57%	+0.39	-0.7	13
1987-07-11	@ Tromso	D 1-1	53.1	1135	1127	27.57%	26.68%	45.74%	-0.39	+0.7	16
1987-07-18	Hamarkameratene	W 4-2	42.9	1177	1113	54.74%	24.76%	20.50%	+0.79	+6.1	25
1987-07-18	@ Bryne	L 2-4	42.9	1113	1177	20.50%	24.76%	54.74%	-0.79	-6.1	12
1987-07-18	Brann	W 2-0	36.2	1125	1136	45.28%	26.75%	27.98%	+0.37	+10.4	11
1987-07-18	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-2	36.2	1136	1125	27.98%	26.75%	45.28%	-0.37	-10.4	16
1987-07-18	Moss	L 1-2	50.3	1169	1185	44.55%	26.84%	28.61%	+0.34	-7.4	12
1987-07-18	@ Lillestrom	W 2-1	50.3	1185	1169	28.61%	26.84%	44.55%	-0.34	+7.4	25
1987-07-18	Rosenborg	L 1-3	48.0	1170	1160	48.16%	26.30%	25.54%	+0.49	-13.7	17
1987-07-18	@ Mjondalen	W 3-1	48.0	1160	1170	25.54%	26.30%	48.16%	-0.49	+13.7	19
1987-07-18	Molde	L 0-2	40.5	1104	1139	42.09%	27.09%	30.82%	+0.23	-14.2	11
1987-07-18	@ Start	W 2-0	40.5	1139	1104	30.82%	27.09%	42.09%	-0.23	+14.2	19
1987-07-18	Valerenga	L 0-1	44.1	1127	1155	42.96%	27.01%	30.02%	+0.27	-7.7	13
1987-07-18	@ Tromso	W 1-0	44.1	1155	1127	30.02%	27.01%	42.96%	-0.27	+7.7	15
1987-08-08	Lillestrom	L 0-1	43.8	1125	1162	41.77%	27.11%	31.11%	+0.22	-7.5	16
1987-08-08	@ Brann	W 1-0	43.8	1162	1125	31.11%	27.11%	41.77%	-0.22	+7.5	15
1987-08-08	Mjondalen	D 1-1	53.0	1107	1157	39.99%	27.23%	32.78%	+0.15	-0.2	13
1987-08-08	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	53.0	1157	1107	32.78%	27.23%	39.99%	-0.15	+0.3	18
1987-08-08	Bryne	W 1-0	40.4	1153	1183	42.67%	27.04%	30.29%	+0.26	+5.9	22
1987-08-08	@ Molde	L 0-1	40.4	1183	1153	30.29%	27.04%	42.67%	-0.26	-5.9	25
1987-08-08	Start	W 5-1	33.3	1193	1090	59.32%	23.26%	17.43%	+1.02	+10.6	28
1987-08-08	@ Moss	L 1-5	33.3	1090	1193	17.43%	23.26%	59.32%	-1.02	-10.7	11
1987-08-08	Tromso	W 2-0	33.7	1173	1119	53.63%	25.07%	21.30%	+0.74	+8.2	22
1987-08-08	@ Rosenborg	L 0-2	33.7	1119	1173	21.30%	25.07%	53.63%	-0.74	-8.2	13
1987-08-08	Kongsvinger	L 1-3	48.4	1162	1135	50.29%	25.88%	23.83%	+0.59	-14.2	15
1987-08-08	@ Valerenga	W 3-1	48.4	1135	1162	23.83%	25.88%	50.29%	-0.59	+14.2	14
1987-08-15	Moss	L 1-2	50.0	1177	1203	43.17%	26.99%	29.84%	+0.28	-7.2	25
1987-08-15	@ Bryne	W 2-1	50.0	1203	1177	29.84%	26.99%	43.17%	-0.28	+7.2	31
1987-08-15	Rosenborg	D 1-1	53.1	1149	1181	42.37%	27.07%	30.57%	+0.25	-0.4	15
1987-08-15	@ Kongsvinger	D 1-1	53.1	1181	1149	30.57%	27.07%	42.37%	-0.25	+0.4	23
1987-08-15	Molde	D 0-0	48.4	1157	1159	46.50%	26.57%	26.93%	+0.42	-0.8	19
1987-08-15	@ Mjondalen	D 0-0	48.4	1159	1157	26.93%	26.57%	46.50%	-0.42	+0.8	23
1987-08-15	Lillestrom	D 0-0	48.2	1080	1169	34.26%	27.29%	38.45%	-0.08	+0.2	12
1987-08-15	@ Start	D 0-0	48.2	1169	1080	38.45%	27.29%	34.26%	+0.08	-0.2	16
1987-08-15	Hamarkameratene	W 2-0	35.6	1111	1107	47.24%	26.46%	26.30%	+0.45	+9.9	16
1987-08-15	@ Tromso	L 0-2	35.6	1107	1111	26.30%	26.46%	47.24%	-0.45	-9.9	13
1987-08-15	Brann	L 0-2	42.7	1148	1118	50.69%	25.79%	23.51%	+0.61	-16.5	15
1987-08-15	@ Valerenga	W 2-0	42.7	1118	1148	23.51%	25.79%	50.69%	-0.61	+16.4	19
1987-08-22	Start	W 1-0	37.0	1134	1080	53.67%	25.06%	21.27%	+0.74	+4.3	22
1987-08-22	@ Brann	L 0-1	37.0	1080	1134	21.27%	25.06%	53.67%	-0.74	-4.3	12
1987-08-22	Kongsvinger	D 2-2	58.8	1097	1149	39.67%	27.25%	33.09%	+0.13	-0.2	14
1987-08-22	@ Hamarkameratene	D 2-2	58.8	1149	1097	33.09%	27.25%	39.67%	-0.13	+0.2	16
1987-08-22	Bryne	L 0-1	45.1	1169	1170	46.63%	26.55%	26.81%	+0.43	-8.2	16
1987-08-22	@ Lillestrom	W 1-0	45.1	1170	1169	26.81%	26.55%	46.63%	-0.43	+8.2	28
1987-08-22	Tromso	W 2-1	43.3	1160	1121	51.74%	25.55%	22.71%	+0.65	+4.3	26
1987-08-22	@ Molde	L 1-2	43.3	1121	1160	22.71%	25.55%	51.74%	-0.65	-4.3	16
1987-08-22	Mjondalen	W 4-2	43.3	1211	1156	53.69%	25.05%	21.25%	+0.74	+6.3	34
1987-08-22	@ Moss	L 2-4	43.3	1156	1211	21.25%	25.05%	53.69%	-0.74	-6.3	19
1987-08-22	Valerenga	D 1-1	53.6	1182	1132	53.15%	25.20%	21.65%	+0.72	-1.2	24
1987-08-22	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	53.6	1132	1182	21.65%	25.20%	53.15%	-0.72	+1.2	16
1987-08-29	Start	L 0-1	47.9	1178	1075	59.31%	23.26%	17.43%	+1.02	-9.9	28
1987-08-29	@ Bryne	W 1-0	47.9	1075	1178	17.43%	23.26%	59.31%	-1.02	+9.9	15
1987-08-29	Molde	W 1-0	39.7	1149	1164	44.73%	26.82%	28.45%	+0.34	+5.6	19
1987-08-29	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-1	39.7	1164	1149	28.45%	26.82%	44.73%	-0.34	-5.6	26
1987-08-29	Lillestrom	L 1-3	47.2	1150	1161	45.26%	26.75%	27.99%	+0.37	-13.0	19
1987-08-29	@ Mjondalen	W 3-1	47.2	1161	1150	27.99%	26.75%	45.26%	-0.37	+13.0	19
1987-08-29	Brann	D 0-0	48.8	1181	1138	52.16%	25.45%	22.39%	+0.67	-1.3	25
1987-08-29	@ Rosenborg	D 0-0	48.8	1138	1181	22.39%	25.45%	52.16%	-0.67	+1.3	23
1987-08-29	Moss	D 0-0	48.2	1116	1217	32.76%	27.23%	40.01%	-0.15	+0.3	17
1987-08-29	@ Tromso	D 0-0	48.2	1217	1116	40.01%	27.23%	32.76%	+0.15	-0.3	35
1987-08-29	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	37.7	1133	1097	51.37%	25.64%	22.99%	+0.64	+4.7	19
1987-08-29	@ Valerenga	L 0-1	37.7	1097	1133	22.99%	25.64%	51.37%	-0.64	-4.7	14
1987-09-02	Mjondalen	D 1-1	53.2	1140	1137	47.14%	26.47%	26.39%	+0.45	-0.8	24
1987-09-02	@ Brann	D 1-1	53.2	1137	1140	26.39%	26.47%	47.14%	-0.45	+0.8	20
1987-09-05	Bryne	L 1-3	46.6	1139	1168	42.81%	27.03%	30.17%	+0.26	-12.5	24
1987-09-05	@ Brann	W 3-1	46.6	1168	1139	30.17%	27.03%	42.81%	-0.26	+12.5	31
1987-09-05	Rosenborg	W 3-0	37.3	1092	1179	34.62%	27.30%	38.07%	-0.07	+19.1	17
1987-09-05	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-3	37.3	1179	1092	38.07%	27.30%	34.62%	+0.07	-19.1	25
1987-09-05	Tromso	W 3-0	31.5	1174	1117	54.00%	24.97%	21.03%	+0.76	+11.8	22
1987-09-05	@ Lillestrom	L 0-3	31.5	1117	1174	21.03%	24.97%	54.00%	-0.76	-11.8	17
1987-09-05	Valerenga	W 4-0	32.5	1158	1138	49.45%	26.05%	24.50%	+0.55	+17.7	29
1987-09-05	@ Molde	L 0-4	32.5	1138	1158	24.50%	26.05%	49.45%	-0.55	-17.6	19
1987-09-05	Kongsvinger	L 1-3	49.5	1217	1154	54.62%	24.79%	20.59%	+0.79	-15.1	35
1987-09-05	@ Moss	W 3-1	49.5	1154	1217	20.59%	24.79%	54.62%	-0.79	+15.1	22
1987-09-05	Mjondalen	W 3-0	35.8	1085	1137	39.57%	27.25%	33.18%	+0.13	+17.3	18
1987-09-05	@ Start	L 0-3	35.8	1137	1085	33.18%	27.25%	39.57%	-0.13	-17.3	20
1987-09-12	Brann	W 4-1	39.3	1111	1126	44.73%	26.82%	28.46%	+0.34	+12.9	20
1987-09-12	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-4	39.3	1126	1111	28.46%	26.82%	44.73%	-0.34	-12.9	24
1987-09-12	Lillestrom	W 1-0	39.8	1170	1186	44.60%	26.83%	28.57%	+0.34	+5.6	25
1987-09-12	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-1	39.8	1186	1170	28.57%	26.83%	44.60%	-0.34	-5.6	22
1987-09-12	Bryne	L 1-4	42.5	1120	1180	38.43%	27.29%	34.28%	+0.08	-16.2	20
1987-09-12	@ Mjondalen	W 4-1	42.5	1180	1120	34.28%	27.29%	38.43%	-0.08	+16.2	34
1987-09-12	Molde	L 0-2	41.3	1160	1176	44.64%	26.83%	28.54%	+0.34	-14.9	25
1987-09-12	@ Rosenborg	W 2-0	41.3	1176	1160	28.54%	26.83%	44.64%	-0.34	+14.9	32
1987-09-12	Start	D 1-1	53.2	1105	1103	47.06%	26.49%	26.46%	+0.44	-0.8	18
1987-09-12	@ Tromso	D 1-1	53.2	1103	1105	26.46%	26.49%	47.06%	-0.44	+0.8	19
1987-09-12	Moss	W 2-0	39.2	1120	1202	35.36%	27.32%	37.32%	-0.04	+13.0	22
1987-09-12	@ Valerenga	L 0-2	39.2	1202	1120	37.32%	27.32%	35.36%	+0.04	-13.0	35
1987-09-16	Hamarkameratene	W 2-1	42.3	1191	1124	55.11%	24.65%	20.24%	+0.81	+3.9	35
1987-09-16	@ Molde	L 1-2	42.3	1124	1191	20.24%	24.65%	55.11%	-0.81	-3.9	20
1987-09-16	Rosenborg	D 1-1	53.6	1189	1145	52.29%	25.42%	22.29%	+0.68	-1.1	36
1987-09-16	@ Moss	D 1-1	53.6	1145	1189	22.29%	25.42%	52.29%	-0.68	+1.1	26
1987-09-19	Valerenga	D 0-0	48.8	1180	1133	52.78%	25.29%	21.93%	+0.70	-1.3	23
1987-09-19	@ Lillestrom	D 0-0	48.8	1133	1180	21.93%	25.29%	52.78%	-0.70	+1.3	23
1987-09-19	Kongsvinger	D 0-0	48.2	1103	1175	36.76%	27.32%	35.92%	+0.02	-0.0	20
1987-09-19	@ Start	D 0-0	48.2	1175	1103	35.92%	27.32%	36.76%	-0.02	+0.0	26
1987-09-23	Tromso	L 0-1	47.7	1197	1104	58.17%	23.66%	18.16%	+0.96	-9.8	34
1987-09-23	@ Bryne	W 1-0	47.7	1104	1197	18.16%	23.66%	58.17%	-0.96	+9.8	21
1987-09-26	Moss	W 2-0	38.5	1120	1187	37.47%	27.32%	35.21%	+0.05	+12.4	23
1987-09-26	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	38.5	1187	1120	35.21%	27.32%	37.47%	-0.05	-12.4	36
1987-09-26	Bryne	W 4-0	33.8	1175	1187	45.18%	26.76%	28.06%	+0.36	+19.8	29
1987-09-26	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-4	33.8	1187	1175	28.06%	26.76%	45.18%	-0.36	-19.8	34
1987-09-26	Brann	W 2-1	41.8	1195	1114	56.86%	24.11%	19.04%	+0.90	+3.7	38
1987-09-26	@ Molde	L 1-2	41.8	1114	1195	19.04%	24.11%	56.86%	-0.90	-3.7	24
1987-09-26	Lillestrom	W 3-2	51.2	1146	1179	42.38%	27.06%	30.56%	+0.25	+5.3	29
1987-09-26	@ Rosenborg	L 2-3	51.2	1179	1146	30.56%	27.06%	42.38%	-0.25	-5.3	23
1987-09-26	Mjondalen	W 2-1	44.4	1114	1104	48.05%	26.32%	25.63%	+0.49	+4.8	24
1987-09-26	@ Tromso	L 1-2	44.4	1104	1114	25.63%	26.32%	48.05%	-0.49	-4.8	20
1987-09-26	Start	W 4-0	32.1	1134	1103	50.75%	25.78%	23.47%	+0.61	+17.0	26
1987-09-26	@ Valerenga	L 0-4	32.1	1103	1134	23.47%	25.78%	50.75%	-0.61	-17.0	20
1987-10-03	Rosenborg	L 0-2	42.3	1167	1152	48.75%	26.19%	25.06%	+0.52	-15.9	34
1987-10-03	@ Bryne	W 2-0	42.3	1152	1167	25.06%	26.19%	48.75%	-0.52	+15.9	32
1987-10-03	Molde	W 2-1	45.9	1173	1198	43.36%	26.97%	29.67%	+0.29	+5.5	26
1987-10-03	@ Lillestrom	L 1-2	45.9	1198	1173	29.67%	26.97%	43.36%	-0.29	-5.4	38
1987-10-03	Valerenga	W 3-0	35.8	1099	1151	39.59%	27.25%	33.16%	+0.13	+17.2	23
1987-10-03	@ Mjondalen	L 0-3	35.8	1151	1099	33.16%	27.25%	39.59%	-0.13	-17.3	26
1987-10-03	Brann	W 3-2	47.4	1175	1110	54.97%	24.69%	20.34%	+0.81	+3.7	39
1987-10-03	@ Moss	L 2-3	47.4	1110	1175	20.34%	24.69%	54.97%	-0.81	-3.7	24
1987-10-03	Hamarkameratene	W 6-1	38.2	1086	1133	40.35%	27.21%	32.44%	+0.16	+22.6	23
1987-10-03	@ Start	L 1-6	38.2	1133	1086	32.44%	27.21%	40.35%	-0.16	-22.6	23
1987-10-03	Kongsvinger	L 1-3	44.6	1119	1195	36.13%	27.32%	36.55%	-0.01	-11.0	24
1987-10-03	@ Tromso	W 3-1	44.6	1195	1119	36.55%	27.32%	36.13%	+0.01	+11.0	32
1987-10-10	Tromso	W 5-0	33.8	1106	1108	46.52%	26.57%	26.91%	+0.42	+23.6	27
1987-10-10	@ Brann	L 0-5	33.8	1108	1106	26.91%	26.57%	46.52%	-0.42	-23.6	24
1987-10-10	Lillestrom	W 2-1	47.7	1110	1179	37.25%	27.32%	35.43%	+0.04	+6.2	26
1987-10-10	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	47.7	1179	1110	35.43%	27.32%	37.25%	-0.04	-6.2	26
1987-10-10	Mjondalen	W 1-0	35.8	1206	1116	57.84%	23.78%	18.38%	+0.95	+3.8	35
1987-10-10	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-1	35.8	1116	1206	18.38%	23.78%	57.84%	-0.95	-3.8	23
1987-10-10	Moss	L 0-2	42.3	1193	1179	48.60%	26.22%	25.18%	+0.51	-15.9	38
1987-10-10	@ Molde	W 2-0	42.3	1179	1193	25.18%	26.22%	48.60%	-0.51	+15.9	42
1987-10-10	Start	W 4-1	36.5	1168	1109	54.21%	24.91%	20.88%	+0.77	+9.9	35
1987-10-10	@ Rosenborg	L 1-4	36.5	1109	1168	20.88%	24.91%	54.21%	-0.77	-9.9	23
1987-10-10	Bryne	W 1-0	39.8	1134	1151	44.42%	26.85%	28.73%	+0.33	+5.6	29
1987-10-10	@ Valerenga	L 0-1	39.8	1151	1134	28.73%	26.85%	44.42%	-0.33	-5.6	34

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1987-08-29	17.43%	Start	1075	1	@ Bryne	1178	0
2	1987-09-23	18.16%	Tromso	1104	1	@ Bryne	1197	0
3	1987-06-13	20.02%	Kongsvinger	1125	2	@ Lillestrom	1194	0
4	1987-09-05	20.59%	Kongsvinger	1154	3	@ Moss	1217	1
5	1987-08-15	23.51%	Brann	1118	2	@ Valerenga	1148	0
6	1987-08-08	23.83%	Kongsvinger	1135	3	@ Valerenga	1162	1
7	1987-06-20	24.11%	Moss	1142	4	@ Rosenborg	1166	1
8	1987-06-08	24.19%	Molde	1125	2	@ Valerenga	1149	1
9	1987-06-08	24.53%	Brann	1143	2	@ Bryne	1163	1
10	1987-05-16	24.87%	Bryne	1133	2	@ Moss	1150	0
11	1987-10-03	25.06%	Rosenborg	1152	2	@ Bryne	1167	0
12	1987-10-10	25.18%	Moss	1179	2	@ Molde	1193	0
13	1987-05-20	25.54%	Hamarkameratene	1130	1	@ Kongsvinger	1141	0
14	1987-07-18	25.54%	Rosenborg	1160	3	@ Mjondalen	1170	1
15	1987-06-08	26.18%	Moss	1128	1	@ Kongsvinger	1133	0
16	1987-06-20	26.33%	Start	1139	4	@ Kongsvinger	1143	3
17	1987-05-23	26.35%	Valerenga	1135	3	@ Hamarkameratene	1138	1
18	1987-06-27	26.75%	Valerenga	1147	3	@ Start	1146	1
19	1987-08-22	26.81%	Bryne	1170	1	@ Lillestrom	1169	0
20	1987-05-23	27.02%	Bryne	1155	1	@ Start	1153	0
21	1987-06-20	27.32%	Molde	1133	2	@ Hamarkameratene	1127	0
22	1987-06-27	27.62%	Molde	1148	2	@ Brann	1140	0
23	1987-08-29	27.99%	Lillestrom	1161	3	@ Mjondalen	1150	1
24	1987-09-12	28.54%	Molde	1176	2	@ Rosenborg	1160	0
25	1987-07-18	28.61%	Moss	1185	2	@ Lillestrom	1169	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1987-10-10	23.56	@ Brann	5	1106	46.52%	Tromso	0	1108	26.91%	26.57%
2	1987-07-11	23.44	@ Moss	5	1162	46.72%	Molde	0	1162	26.74%	26.54%
3	1987-10-03	22.63	@ Start	6	1086	40.35%	Hamarkameratene	1	1133	32.44%	27.21%
4	1987-06-20	19.91	Moss	4	1142	24.11%	@ Rosenborg	1	1166	49.94%	25.95%
5	1987-09-26	19.78	@ Kongsvinger	4	1175	45.18%	Bryne	0	1187	28.06%	26.76%
6	1987-09-05	19.11	@ Hamarkameratene	3	1092	34.62%	Rosenborg	0	1179	38.07%	27.30%
7	1987-06-13	17.69	Kongsvinger	2	1125	20.02%	@ Lillestrom	0	1194	55.42%	24.56%
8	1987-09-05	17.65	@ Molde	4	1158	49.45%	Valerenga	0	1138	24.50%	26.05%
9	1987-09-05	17.26	@ Start	3	1085	39.57%	Mjondalen	0	1137	33.18%	27.25%
10	1987-10-03	17.26	@ Mjondalen	3	1099	39.59%	Valerenga	0	1151	33.16%	27.25%
11	1987-09-26	17.01	@ Valerenga	4	1134	50.75%	Start	0	1103	23.47%	25.78%
12	1987-08-15	16.46	Brann	2	1118	23.51%	@ Valerenga	0	1148	50.69%	25.79%
13	1987-09-12	16.23	Bryne	4	1180	34.28%	@ Mjondalen	1	1120	38.43%	27.29%
14	1987-07-04	16.16	@ Hamarkameratene	3	1102	42.51%	Start	0	1133	30.43%	27.05%
15	1987-05-16	16.00	Bryne	2	1133	24.87%	@ Moss	0	1150	48.98%	26.15%
16	1987-10-03	15.94	Rosenborg	2	1152	25.06%	@ Bryne	0	1167	48.75%	26.19%
17	1987-10-10	15.90	Moss	2	1179	25.18%	@ Molde	0	1193	48.60%	26.22%
18	1987-05-02	15.32	@ Rosenborg	3	1145	44.73%	Mjondalen	0	1160	28.46%	26.82%
19	1987-06-20	15.22	Molde	2	1133	27.32%	@ Hamarkameratene	0	1127	46.04%	26.64%
20	1987-09-05	15.14	Kongsvinger	3	1154	20.59%	@ Moss	1	1217	54.62%	24.79%
21	1987-06-27	15.13	Molde	2	1148	27.62%	@ Brann	0	1140	45.69%	26.69%
22	1987-06-13	14.89	@ Bryne	3	1155	45.85%	Mjondalen	0	1162	27.48%	26.67%
23	1987-09-12	14.86	Molde	2	1176	28.54%	@ Rosenborg	0	1160	44.64%	26.83%
24	1987-05-16	14.21	@ Lillestrom	5	1188	50.65%	Start	1	1158	23.55%	25.80%
25	1987-07-18	14.19	Molde	2	1139	30.82%	@ Start	0	1104	42.09%	27.09%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1987-05-09	59.1	@ Start	2	1159	47.94%	Moss	2	1149	25.72%	26.34%
2	1987-06-13	59.1	@ Start	2	1140	48.06%	Tromso	2	1130	25.63%	26.32%
3	1987-05-09	59.0	@ Kongsvinger	2	1140	45.81%	Valerenga	2	1147	27.52%	26.67%
4	1987-07-04	59.0	@ Valerenga	2	1160	45.26%	Mjondalen	2	1171	27.99%	26.75%
5	1987-07-04	58.9	@ Rosenborg	2	1147	43.49%	Bryne	2	1172	29.56%	26.96%
6	1987-08-22	58.8	@ Hamarkameratene	2	1097	39.67%	Kongsvinger	2	1149	33.09%	27.25%
7	1987-06-20	58.4	Start	4	1139	26.33%	@ Kongsvinger	3	1143	47.20%	26.46%
8	1987-07-11	53.6	@ Mjondalen	1	1171	52.89%	Kongsvinger	1	1123	21.84%	25.26%
9	1987-08-22	53.6	@ Rosenborg	1	1182	53.15%	Valerenga	1	1132	21.65%	25.20%
10	1987-09-16	53.6	@ Moss	1	1189	52.29%	Rosenborg	1	1145	22.29%	25.42%
11	1987-06-08	53.5	@ Rosenborg	1	1167	52.16%	Hamarkameratene	1	1125	22.39%	25.45%
12	1987-06-27	53.3	@ Lillestrom	1	1165	49.11%	Rosenborg	1	1147	24.77%	26.12%
13	1987-05-16	53.2	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1131	46.70%	Tromso	1	1131	26.76%	26.54%
14	1987-09-02	53.2	@ Brann	1	1140	47.14%	Mjondalen	1	1137	26.39%	26.47%
15	1987-09-12	53.2	@ Tromso	1	1105	47.06%	Start	1	1103	26.46%	26.49%
16	1987-05-23	53.1	@ Brann	1	1144	43.62%	Rosenborg	1	1167	29.44%	26.94%
17	1987-05-23	53.1	@ Molde	1	1125	45.80%	Kongsvinger	1	1133	27.52%	26.67%
18	1987-07-11	53.1	@ Tromso	1	1127	45.74%	Brann	1	1135	27.57%	26.68%
19	1987-08-15	53.1	@ Kongsvinger	1	1149	42.37%	Rosenborg	1	1181	30.57%	27.07%
20	1987-05-09	53.0	@ Tromso	1	1132	42.93%	Rosenborg	1	1160	30.06%	27.01%
21	1987-06-13	53.0	@ Molde	1	1133	42.24%	Rosenborg	1	1166	30.68%	27.08%
22	1987-08-08	53.0	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1107	39.99%	Mjondalen	1	1157	32.78%	27.23%
23	1987-06-08	51.6	Molde	2	1125	24.19%	@ Valerenga	1	1149	49.84%	25.97%
24	1987-06-08	51.5	Brann	2	1143	24.53%	@ Bryne	1	1163	49.41%	26.06%
25	1987-09-26	51.2	@ Rosenborg	3	1146	42.38%	Lillestrom	2	1179	30.56%	27.06%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1987-09-05	31.5	@ Lillestrom	3	1174	54.00%	Tromso	0	1117	21.03%	24.97%
2	1987-09-26	32.1	@ Valerenga	4	1134	50.75%	Start	0	1103	23.47%	25.78%
3	1987-09-05	32.5	@ Molde	4	1158	49.45%	Valerenga	0	1138	24.50%	26.05%
4	1987-06-27	33.1	@ Mjondalen	3	1157	48.97%	Tromso	0	1140	24.88%	26.15%
5	1987-05-20	33.2	@ Mjondalen	3	1148	48.59%	Moss	0	1134	25.19%	26.22%
6	1987-08-08	33.3	@ Moss	5	1193	59.32%	Start	1	1090	17.43%	23.26%
7	1987-08-08	33.7	@ Rosenborg	2	1173	53.63%	Tromso	0	1119	21.30%	25.07%
8	1987-07-11	33.8	@ Moss	5	1162	46.72%	Molde	0	1162	26.74%	26.54%
9	1987-09-26	33.8	@ Kongsvinger	4	1175	45.18%	Bryne	0	1187	28.06%	26.76%
10	1987-10-10	33.8	@ Brann	5	1106	46.52%	Tromso	0	1108	26.91%	26.57%
11	1987-06-13	34.0	@ Bryne	3	1155	45.85%	Mjondalen	0	1162	27.48%	26.67%
12	1987-05-02	34.3	@ Rosenborg	3	1145	44.73%	Mjondalen	0	1160	28.46%	26.82%
13	1987-07-04	35.0	@ Hamarkameratene	3	1102	42.51%	Start	0	1133	30.43%	27.05%
14	1987-05-09	35.6	@ Mjondalen	2	1144	47.20%	Hamarkameratene	0	1141	26.34%	26.46%
15	1987-08-15	35.6	@ Tromso	2	1111	47.24%	Hamarkameratene	0	1107	26.30%	26.46%
16	1987-09-05	35.8	@ Start	3	1085	39.57%	Mjondalen	0	1137	33.18%	27.25%
17	1987-10-03	35.8	@ Mjondalen	3	1099	39.59%	Valerenga	0	1151	33.16%	27.25%
18	1987-10-10	35.8	@ Kongsvinger	1	1206	57.84%	Mjondalen	0	1116	18.38%	23.78%
19	1987-05-16	35.9	@ Lillestrom	5	1188	50.65%	Start	1	1158	23.55%	25.80%
20	1987-06-20	35.9	@ Mjondalen	2	1147	46.37%	Brann	0	1150	27.04%	26.59%
21	1987-07-18	36.2	@ Kongsvinger	2	1125	45.28%	Brann	0	1136	27.98%	26.75%
22	1987-10-10	36.5	@ Rosenborg	4	1168	54.21%	Start	1	1109	20.88%	24.91%
23	1987-06-27	36.8	@ Moss	4	1162	53.11%	Hamarkameratene	1	1112	21.68%	25.21%
24	1987-08-22	37.0	@ Brann	1	1134	53.67%	Start	0	1080	21.27%	25.06%
25	1987-07-11	37.3	@ Lillestrom	1	1165	52.71%	Hamarkameratene	0	1118	21.98%	25.31%