1986 First Division Season

132 games

Final

Champion

Lillestrom

33 points · 4th Title

Last Title: 1977

Relegated

Strommen

8 pts

Viking · 17 pts

Biggest Overachiever

Kongsvinger

5.78 points above expected

27 points · 21.22 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Strommen

10.86 points below expected

8 points · 18.86 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Lillestrom Champion	22	16	1	5	33	40	17	+23	27.90	+5.10
2	Mjondalen	22	11	5	6	27	36	25	+11	26.10	+0.90
3	Kongsvinger	22	11	5	6	27	27	27	0	21.22	+5.78
4	Start	22	9	6	7	24	31	22	+9	23.93	+0.07
5	Hamarkameratene	22	8	8	6	24	34	30	+4	20.26	+3.74
6	Bryne	22	11	1	10	23	32	31	+1	23.07	-0.07
7	Valerenga	22	9	4	9	22	29	28	+1	23.74	-1.74
8	Rosenborg	22	8	5	9	21	28	28	0	23.96	-2.96
9	Molde	22	7	6	9	20	26	33	-7	18.13	+1.87
10	Tromso	22	6	6	10	18	23	32	-9	21.16	-3.16
11	Viking Relegated	22	5	7	10	17	23	33	-10	15.67	+1.33
12	Strommen Relegated	22	2	4	16	8	23	46	-23	18.86	-10.86

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Kongsvinger	27	21.22	+5.78
2	Lillestrom	33	27.90	+5.10
3	Hamarkameratene	24	20.26	+3.74
4	Molde	20	18.13	+1.87
5	Viking	17	15.67	+1.33

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Strommen	8	18.86	-10.86
2	Tromso	18	21.16	-3.16
3	Rosenborg	21	23.96	-2.96
4	Valerenga	22	23.74	-1.74
5	Bryne	23	23.07	-0.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Lillestrom	11	May 19 – Aug 31	1 in 3,138
2	Molde	3	Sep 7 – Sep 28	1 in 83
3	Viking	3	Oct 5 – Oct 19	1 in 55
4	Start	4	May 4 – May 16	1 in 32
5	Kongsvinger	3	May 16 – Jun 1	1 in 27

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Strommen	5	Apr 27 – May 16	1 in 168
2	Bryne	4	Sep 27 – Oct 19	1 in 34
3	Tromso	3	Jun 1 – Jun 14	1 in 24
4	Viking	4	May 3 – May 16	1 in 23
5	Start	2	May 19 – May 22	1 in 22

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Molde	7	Aug 24 – Oct 12	1 in 127
2	Lillestrom	14	May 19 – Oct 5	1 in 72
3	Viking	4	Sep 28 – Oct 19	1 in 14
4	Kongsvinger	6	Sep 7 – Oct 19	1 in 13
5	Valerenga	5	May 11 – Jun 8	1 in 12

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Start	8	Aug 17 – Oct 12	1 in 68
2	Tromso	7	May 11 – Jun 21	1 in 39
3	Strommen	9	Aug 17 – Oct 19	1 in 30
4	Viking	11	Apr 27 – Aug 4	1 in 26
5	Mjondalen	4	Sep 14 – Oct 12	1 in 18

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team	Elo	Season Pts	Elo Δ (5)	Points (5)	Expected (5)	Actual − Exp
Lillestrom	1338	33	+11	8	7.4	+0.6
Kongsvinger	1191	27	+35	8	5.4	+2.6
Mjondalen	1230	27	-11	5	6.0	-1.0
Hamarkameratene	1147	24	+4	5	4.6	+0.4
Start	1197	24	-4	4	5.5	-1.5
Bryne	1138	23	-49	2	4.8	-2.8
Valerenga	1198	22	-12	4	5.6	-1.6
Rosenborg	1183	21	-2	5	5.1	-0.1
Molde	1130	20	+38	7	4.1	+2.9
Tromso	1131	18	-10	4	4.1	-0.1
Viking	1098	17	+53	7	3.7	+3.3
Strommen	1044	8	-55	1	3.5	-2.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	BRY	HAM	KON	LIL	MJO	MOL	ROS	STA	STR	TRO	VAL	VIK
Bryne	—	0-0-2 3.07	1-0-1 2.98	0-0-2 2.33	0-0-2 2.57	1-0-1 3.34	1-0-1 2.68	2-0-0 2.66	2-0-0 3.13	2-0-0 3.12	0-1-1 2.73	2-0-0 3.42
Hamarkameratene	2-0-0 2.47	—	1-0-1 2.68	1-0-1 1.88	1-1-0 1.97	0-2-0 2.93	0-1-1 2.27	0-1-1 2.32	2-0-0 2.75	1-1-0 2.62	0-1-1 2.35	0-1-1 3.43
Kongsvinger	1-0-1 2.55	1-0-1 2.85	—	1-0-1 1.95	0-1-1 2.25	1-1-0 3.16	2-0-0 2.48	1-1-0 2.33	1-0-1 3.12	0-1-1 2.71	2-0-0 2.22	1-1-0 3.49
Lillestrom	2-0-0 3.21	1-0-1 3.67	1-0-1 3.60	—	1-0-1 2.99	2-0-0 4.02	1-1-0 3.16	1-0-1 3.22	2-0-0 3.84	1-0-1 3.66	2-0-0 3.16	2-0-0 4.23
Mjondalen	2-0-0 2.96	0-1-1 3.57	1-1-0 3.29	1-0-1 2.55	—	1-1-0 3.87	0-0-2 2.92	0-1-1 3.12	2-0-0 3.81	2-0-0 3.11	2-0-0 2.85	0-1-1 3.90
Molde	1-0-1 2.20	0-2-0 2.60	0-1-1 2.37	0-0-2 1.53	0-1-1 1.68	—	1-1-0 2.00	0-0-2 2.38	1-0-1 2.55	1-1-0 2.39	1-0-1 1.91	2-0-0 2.74
Rosenborg	1-0-1 2.86	1-1-0 3.28	0-0-2 3.06	0-1-1 2.38	2-0-0 2.61	0-1-1 3.55	—	1-0-1 2.93	1-1-0 3.27	1-0-1 3.32	0-0-2 3.12	1-1-0 3.53
Start	0-0-2 2.88	1-1-0 3.22	0-1-1 3.21	1-0-1 2.32	1-1-0 2.42	2-0-0 3.17	1-0-1 2.60	—	1-1-0 3.37	1-1-0 3.16	0-0-2 2.66	1-1-0 3.73
Strommen	0-0-2 2.40	0-0-2 2.78	1-0-1 2.42	0-0-2 1.73	0-0-2 1.74	1-0-1 2.99	0-1-1 2.27	0-1-1 2.17	—	0-1-1 2.71	0-0-2 2.48	0-1-1 3.15
Tromso	0-0-2 2.41	0-1-1 2.92	1-1-0 2.83	1-0-1 1.89	0-0-2 2.43	0-1-1 3.15	1-0-1 2.21	0-1-1 2.38	1-1-0 2.83	—	1-1-0 2.41	1-0-1 3.25
Valerenga	1-1-0 2.80	1-1-0 3.18	0-0-2 3.32	0-0-2 2.37	0-0-2 2.69	1-0-1 3.63	2-0-0 2.42	2-0-0 2.88	2-0-0 3.06	0-1-1 3.13	—	0-1-1 3.65
Viking	0-0-2 2.13	1-1-0 2.11	0-1-1 2.05	0-0-2 1.34	1-1-0 1.65	0-0-2 2.80	0-1-1 2.02	0-1-1 1.82	1-1-0 2.38	1-0-1 2.29	1-1-0 1.89	—

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

	R²	Slope
Scored	0.68	+9.4
Allowed	0.87	-8.2
Differential	0.90	+5.0

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	6.82%	10.23%	7.20%	3.03%	1.14%	—	28.41%
1	10.23%	12.12%	6.06%	4.17%	2.65%	—	35.23%
2	7.20%	6.06%	3.03%	2.27%	0.38%	0.38%	19.32%
3	3.03%	4.17%	2.27%	—	0.76%	0.38%	10.61%
4	1.14%	2.65%	0.38%	0.76%	—	0.38%	5.30%
5+	—	—	0.38%	0.38%	0.38%	—	1.14%
Total	28.41%	35.23%	19.32%	10.61%	5.30%	1.14%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.33	1.33	+0.00
SD	1.23	1.23	1.70
CV	0.93	0.93	—
Max	6	6	+4
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 132

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
1	13.64%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	4.55%	9.09%	—	4.55%	4.55%	—	22.73%
3	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	40.91%	13.64%	18.18%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.45	1.41	+0.05
SD	1.44	1.18	1.81
CV	0.99	0.84	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
1	9.09%	22.73%	4.55%	—	—	—	36.36%
2	18.18%	4.55%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	31.82%	36.36%	18.18%	4.55%	—	9.09%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.55	1.36	+0.18
SD	1.01	1.59	1.22
CV	0.65	1.17	—
Max	4	6	+2
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	—	—	—	4.55%	—	18.18%
1	22.73%	9.09%	4.55%	—	13.64%	—	50.00%
2	4.55%	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
3	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.45%	27.27%	4.55%	4.55%	18.18%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.23	1.23	+0.00
SD	0.87	1.54	1.83
CV	0.71	1.26	—
Max	3	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	4.55%	13.64%	—	—	—	18.18%
1	18.18%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	27.27%
2	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
3	18.18%	13.64%	4.55%	—	—	—	36.36%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	45.45%	31.82%	22.73%	—	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.82	0.77	+1.05
SD	1.26	0.81	1.70
CV	0.69	1.05	—
Max	4	2	+3
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	9.09%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
2	13.64%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
3	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	9.09%
4	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	40.91%	27.27%	13.64%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.64	1.14	+0.50
SD	1.36	1.25	1.74
CV	0.83	1.10	—
Max	4	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	31.82%
2	13.64%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	22.73%
3	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	22.73%	31.82%	27.27%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.18	1.50	-0.32
SD	1.05	1.22	1.81
CV	0.89	0.82	—
Max	3	4	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	9.09%	4.55%	—	—	27.27%
1	9.09%	18.18%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	45.45%
2	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
3	9.09%	—	9.09%	—	—	—	18.18%
4	—	4.55%	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	27.27%	31.82%	27.27%	13.64%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.27	1.27	+0.00
SD	1.20	1.03	1.75
CV	0.94	0.81	—
Max	4	3	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	13.64%	22.73%	—	—	—	—	36.36%
1	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	4.55%	—	—	22.73%
2	9.09%	9.09%	9.09%	—	—	—	27.27%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	4.55%	—	—	4.55%	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
Total	36.36%	36.36%	18.18%	9.09%	—	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.41	1.00	+0.41
SD	1.59	0.98	1.56
CV	1.13	0.98	—
Max	6	3	+4
Min	0	0	-2

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	13.64%	—	9.09%	4.55%	—	31.82%
1	—	13.64%	18.18%	18.18%	4.55%	—	54.55%
2	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
3	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
4	—	9.09%	—	—	—	—	9.09%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	4.55%	36.36%	18.18%	27.27%	13.64%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	2.09	-1.05
SD	1.17	1.19	1.70
CV	1.12	0.57	—
Max	4	4	+3
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	9.09%	18.18%	—	—	—	31.82%
1	4.55%	22.73%	9.09%	—	—	—	36.36%
2	9.09%	9.09%	—	4.55%	—	4.55%	27.27%
3	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	18.18%	40.91%	31.82%	4.55%	—	4.55%	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.45	-0.41
SD	0.90	1.30	1.47
CV	0.86	0.89	—
Max	3	6	+2
Min	0	0	-4

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.55%	22.73%	—	4.55%	—	—	31.82%
1	9.09%	13.64%	4.55%	—	4.55%	—	31.82%
2	—	13.64%	—	4.55%	—	—	18.18%
3	4.55%	9.09%	—	—	—	—	13.64%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	4.55%	—	—	4.55%
Total	18.18%	59.09%	4.55%	13.64%	4.55%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.32	1.27	+0.05
SD	1.32	1.08	1.56
CV	1.00	0.85	—
Max	5	4	+3
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	9.09%	4.55%	18.18%	4.55%	—	—	36.36%
1	13.64%	18.18%	9.09%	4.55%	4.55%	—	50.00%
2	—	—	4.55%	—	—	—	4.55%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	4.55%	—	—	—	—	—	4.55%
5+	—	—	—	—	4.55%	—	4.55%
Total	27.27%	22.73%	31.82%	9.09%	9.09%	—	100%

Summary Statistics

	Scored	Allowed	Difference
Mean	1.05	1.50	-0.45
SD	1.43	1.26	1.68
CV	1.37	0.84	—
Max	6	4	+4
Min	0	0	-3

Games Played: 22

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Lillestrom	1338	33	27.90	+5.10	89.0%	21	22	25	28	30	34	36
Mjondalen	1230	27	26.10	+0.90	59.0%	15	19	23	26	29	33	35
Valerenga	1198	22	23.74	-1.74	42.0%	12	16	21	23	27	30	35
Start	1197	24	23.93	+0.07	61.0%	15	19	21	24	26	30	34
Kongsvinger	1191	27	21.22	+5.78	92.0%	12	14	18	21	24	29	32
Rosenborg	1183	21	23.96	-2.96	20.0%	14	18	22	24	26	29	32
Hamarkameratene	1147	24	20.26	+3.74	80.0%	10	12	17	20	23	27	31
Bryne	1138	23	23.07	-0.07	55.0%	15	16	20	23	26	30	32
Tromso	1131	18	21.16	-3.16	23.0%	12	14	19	21	24	27	29
Molde	1130	20	18.13	+1.87	74.0%	8	11	15	18	21	24	29
Viking	1098	17	15.67	+1.33	71.0%	7	10	13	16	18	21	26
Strommen	1044	8	18.86	-10.86	0.0%	11	13	16	19	22	25	27

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge: Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 14.5% * Slight Edge: 14.5% to 17.5% * Clear Edge: 17.5% to 23% * Strong Edge: 23% and up.
Elo Value: Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt: Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.

Home Edge

HomeDrawAway

+15.91%

Slight Edge

46.97%21.97%31.06%

Elo Value

Home Edge: 55.75 Elo pts.

216 Elo

0.005 goals per Elo point

0600

Scoring Tilt

Expected

+0.42 goals

Neutral

-2+0.26+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness: Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds: Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 6th * Longshot: 7th or lower.
Title Margin: Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.09 * Tight Race: 0.09 to 0.21 * Comfortable: 0.21 to 0.29 * Runaway: 0.29 and up.

Title-Race Openness

4.5

Open

134610

Champion Preseason Odds

36%

Lillestrom, 1st of 12

LongshotFavorite

Title Margin

Expected

0.27/gm

Comfortable

00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread: Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 3.13 * Some Luck: 3.13 to 4.7 * Lucky: 4.7 to 6.26 * Wild Swing: 6.26 and up.
Average Finish Error: Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.78 * Close: 1.78 to 2.67 * Off: 2.67 to 3.56 * Way Off: 3.56 and up.
Biggest Overachiever: The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever: The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 12 typically lands.
Season Outliers: Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 12 * As Expected: 12 to 19.2 * Several Outliers: 19.2 to 26.4 * Many Outliers: 26.4 and up.
Unexpected Relegations: Number of teams that were actually relegated but were not in the model's projected bottom field of the same size. The gold line is how many the model expected to miss on average.
As Expected: under 0.91 * A Surprise: 0.91 to 1.46 * Several Surprises: 1.46 to 2 * Many Surprises: 2 and up.

Luck Spread

Expected

4.27 points

Some Luck

03.9110

Average Finish Error

Expected

1.83

02.225

Biggest Overachiever

Expected 95.83%

92.00%

Kongsvinger

50100

Biggest Underachiever

Expected 4.17%

0.00%

Strommen

050

Season Outliers

Expected

1 of 12

Minimal Outliers

01.26

Unexpected Relegations

Expected

1 of 2

A Surprise

00.92

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index: How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.14 * Even: 0.14 to 0.16 * Top-Heavy: 0.16 to 0.19 * Lopsided: 0.19 and up.
Noll-Scully: Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.35 * Moderate Separation: 1.35 to 1.55 * Strong Separation: 1.55 to 1.75 * Wide Separation: 1.75 and up.
Interquartile Edge: Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 61.5% * Slight Edge: 61.5% to 65% * Clear Edge: 65% to 69.5% * Wide Edge: 69.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst: Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 82% * Clear Edge: 82% to 87.5% * Strong Edge: 87.5% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games: Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 53.5% * Some Drama: 53.5% to 58% * Frequent: 58% to 62% * Very Frequent: 62% and up.
Blowouts: Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16% * Occasional: 16% to 19% * Frequent: 19% to 25% * Very Frequent: 25% and up.

Gini Index

0.14

Even

00.140.5

Noll-Scully

Elo SD: 73.56

1.49

Moderate Separation

0.91.351.551.752.5

Interquartile Edge

59%

Even

50%61.5%69.5%100%

Best vs. Worst

Baseline

84%

Clear Edge

50%81%100%

Close Games

Expected

61%

Frequent

0%62%100%

Blowouts

Expected

14%

Rare

0%14%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score: How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance: How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.32 * Slight Separation: 0.32 to 0.34 * Notable Separation: 0.34 to 0.38 * Lopsided: 0.38 and up.
Strangeness: How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability: How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.28 * Some Carryover: 0.28 to 0.48 * Strong Carryover: 0.48 to 0.59 * Near-Lock: 0.59 and up.
Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 23.5% * As Expected: 23.5% to 25.5% * Upset-Prone: 25.5% to 27.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 27.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate: Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 22% * Shaky Favorites: 22% to 25% * Very Shaky: 25% and up.

Brier Score

Expected

0.63

Hard to Predict

00.612

Matchup Imbalance

0.33

Slight Separation

00.320.380.5

Strangeness

Expected

1.30

Wilder Than Modeled

01.002

Repeatability

0.19

Weak Carryover

00.280.481

Upset Rate

Expected

30%

Very Upset-Prone

0%26%50%

Clear Favorite Upset Rate

Expected

31%

Very Shaky

0%22%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration: An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope: Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE): The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.13 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.13 to 0.2 * Above Noise: 0.2 to 0.26 * Well Above Noise: 0.26 and up.

Probability calibration

0.30

Well Calibrated

0.010.050.10.51

Calibration slope

Ideal

0.55

Overconfident

0.420941.001.57906

Calibration error (ECE)

Noise ceiling

0.094

Well Within Noise

00.1310.3

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12
Lillestrom	36.00%	25.00%	16.00%	10.00%	5.00%	4.00%	4.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Mjondalen	26.00%	17.00%	7.00%	15.00%	11.00%	7.00%	3.00%	4.00%	4.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Kongsvinger	3.00%	4.00%	10.00%	7.00%	7.00%	7.00%	12.00%	14.00%	16.00%	11.00%	5.00%	4.00%
Start	6.00%	11.00%	12.00%	18.00%	17.00%	11.00%	9.00%	8.00%	4.00%	3.00%	1.00%	—
Hamarkameratene	6.00%	3.00%	6.00%	5.00%	5.00%	10.00%	11.00%	9.00%	13.00%	11.00%	10.00%	11.00%
Bryne	8.00%	8.00%	11.00%	15.00%	10.00%	13.00%	8.00%	6.00%	7.00%	9.00%	3.00%	2.00%
Valerenga	8.00%	15.00%	11.00%	7.00%	7.00%	14.00%	13.00%	10.00%	5.00%	6.00%	2.00%	2.00%
Rosenborg	3.00%	13.00%	14.00%	12.00%	19.00%	15.00%	11.00%	6.00%	3.00%	1.00%	3.00%	—
Molde	—	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	6.00%	8.00%	7.00%	17.00%	18.00%	22.00%	15.00%
Tromso	4.00%	2.00%	9.00%	4.00%	11.00%	8.00%	8.00%	21.00%	11.00%	10.00%	5.00%	7.00%
Viking	—	—	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	4.00%	6.00%	8.00%	7.00%	28.00%	44.00%
Strommen	—	1.00%	2.00%	4.00%	6.00%	3.00%	9.00%	9.00%	12.00%	20.00%	20.00%	14.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Qualified for relegation playoff	Direct relegation
Lillestrom	100%	—	—
Start	96.00%	3.00%	1.00%
Mjondalen	94.00%	4.00%	2.00%
Rosenborg	96.00%	1.00%	3.00%
Valerenga	90.00%	6.00%	4.00%
Bryne	86.00%	9.00%	5.00%
Kongsvinger	80.00%	11.00%	9.00%
Tromso	78.00%	10.00%	12.00%
Hamarkameratene	68.00%	11.00%	21.00%
Strommen	46.00%	20.00%	34.00%
Molde	45.00%	18.00%	37.00%
Viking	21.00%	7.00%	72.00%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date	Opponent	Score	Excitement	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Proj. Margin	Elo Δ	Points
1986-04-27	Molde	D 1-1	54.8	1076	1134	42.71%	23.30%	33.99%	-0.01	-0.5	1
1986-04-27	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	54.8	1134	1076	33.99%	23.30%	42.71%	+0.01	+0.5	1
1986-04-27	Lillestrom	W 2-0	35.8	1203	1253	43.71%	23.30%	32.99%	+0.03	+16.2	2
1986-04-27	@ Mjondalen	L 0-2	35.8	1253	1203	32.99%	23.30%	43.71%	-0.03	-16.2	0
1986-04-27	Valerenga	L 1-3	45.9	1196	1205	49.06%	23.23%	27.71%	+0.22	-19.3	0
1986-04-27	@ Strommen	W 3-1	45.9	1205	1196	27.71%	23.23%	49.06%	-0.22	+19.3	2
1986-04-27	Rosenborg	D 0-0	50.4	1118	1219	36.55%	23.25%	40.20%	-0.21	+0.2	1
1986-04-27	@ Viking	D 0-0	50.4	1219	1118	40.20%	23.25%	36.55%	+0.21	-0.2	1
1986-05-01	Tromso	D 1-1	54.9	1140	1181	44.80%	23.29%	31.90%	+0.06	-0.7	1
1986-05-01	@ Kongsvinger	D 1-1	54.9	1181	1140	31.90%	23.29%	44.80%	-0.06	+0.7	1
1986-05-03	Viking	W 2-0	31.5	1182	1118	57.21%	22.89%	19.90%	+0.55	+10.7	3
1986-05-03	@ Tromso	L 0-2	31.5	1118	1182	19.90%	22.89%	57.21%	-0.55	-10.7	1
1986-05-04	Kongsvinger	W 4-1	35.2	1158	1139	52.41%	23.13%	24.45%	+0.35	+15.6	2
1986-05-04	@ Bryne	L 1-4	35.2	1139	1158	24.45%	23.13%	52.41%	-0.35	-15.6	1
1986-05-04	Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	45.0	1237	1076	65.59%	22.02%	12.39%	+1.00	-29.5	0
1986-05-04	@ Lillestrom	W 2-0	45.0	1076	1237	12.39%	22.02%	65.59%	-1.00	+29.5	3
1986-05-04	Start	L 0-4	37.6	1134	1141	49.32%	23.23%	27.45%	+0.23	-42.6	1
1986-05-04	@ Molde	W 4-0	37.6	1141	1134	27.45%	23.23%	49.32%	-0.23	+42.6	2
1986-05-05	Strommen	W 3-0	29.7	1219	1177	54.95%	23.02%	22.03%	+0.45	+17.0	3
1986-05-05	@ Rosenborg	L 0-3	29.7	1177	1219	22.03%	23.02%	54.95%	-0.45	-17.0	0
1986-05-05	Mjondalen	L 0-1	45.6	1224	1219	50.75%	23.19%	26.06%	+0.28	-12.2	2
1986-05-05	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	45.6	1219	1224	26.06%	23.19%	50.75%	-0.28	+12.2	4
1986-05-07	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	35.7	1183	1105	58.60%	22.79%	18.60%	+0.62	+5.4	4
1986-05-07	@ Start	L 0-1	35.7	1105	1183	18.60%	22.79%	58.60%	-0.62	-5.4	3
1986-05-07	Tromso	L 1-2	49.4	1160	1193	45.99%	23.28%	30.73%	+0.11	-10.6	0
1986-05-07	@ Strommen	W 2-1	49.4	1193	1160	30.73%	23.28%	45.99%	-0.11	+10.6	5
1986-05-08	Molde	D 0-0	50.4	1123	1091	53.83%	23.08%	23.10%	+0.41	-1.9	2
1986-05-08	@ Kongsvinger	D 0-0	50.4	1091	1123	23.10%	23.08%	53.83%	-0.41	+1.9	2
1986-05-08	Valerenga	W 3-0	31.4	1207	1212	49.53%	23.22%	27.25%	+0.24	+20.2	2
1986-05-08	@ Lillestrom	L 0-3	31.4	1212	1207	27.25%	23.22%	49.53%	-0.24	-20.2	2
1986-05-08	Rosenborg	L 0-2	40.8	1231	1236	49.55%	23.22%	27.22%	+0.24	-22.5	4
1986-05-08	@ Mjondalen	W 2-0	40.8	1236	1231	27.22%	23.22%	49.55%	-0.24	+22.5	5
1986-05-08	Bryne	L 1-2	48.0	1108	1174	41.47%	23.30%	35.23%	-0.05	-9.7	1
1986-05-08	@ Viking	W 2-1	48.0	1174	1108	35.23%	23.30%	41.47%	+0.05	+9.7	4
1986-05-11	Strommen	W 4-1	34.7	1184	1149	54.09%	23.06%	22.85%	+0.42	+14.8	6
1986-05-11	@ Bryne	L 1-4	34.7	1149	1184	22.85%	23.06%	54.09%	-0.42	-14.8	0
1986-05-11	Kongsvinger	W 2-1	44.3	1100	1121	47.44%	23.26%	29.29%	+0.16	+7.4	5
1986-05-11	@ Hamarkameratene	L 1-2	44.3	1121	1100	29.29%	23.26%	47.44%	-0.16	-7.4	2
1986-05-11	Viking	W 2-0	33.8	1093	1098	49.57%	23.22%	27.21%	+0.24	+13.9	4
1986-05-11	@ Molde	L 0-2	33.8	1098	1093	27.21%	23.22%	49.57%	-0.24	-13.9	1
1986-05-11	Valerenga	L 1-2	52.9	1259	1192	57.50%	22.87%	19.63%	+0.57	-12.9	5
1986-05-11	@ Rosenborg	W 2-1	52.9	1192	1259	19.63%	22.87%	57.50%	-0.57	+12.9	4
1986-05-11	Lillestrom	W 2-0	35.3	1189	1227	45.19%	23.29%	31.52%	+0.08	+15.7	6
1986-05-11	@ Start	L 0-2	35.3	1227	1189	31.52%	23.29%	45.19%	-0.08	-15.7	2
1986-05-11	Mjondalen	L 1-2	50.5	1203	1209	49.46%	23.22%	27.31%	+0.23	-11.3	5
1986-05-11	@ Tromso	W 2-1	50.5	1209	1203	27.31%	23.22%	49.46%	-0.23	+11.2	6
1986-05-16	Lillestrom	W 1-0	42.2	1114	1212	37.03%	23.26%	39.71%	-0.19	+9.9	4
1986-05-16	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-1	42.2	1212	1114	39.71%	23.26%	37.03%	+0.19	-9.9	2
1986-05-16	Tromso	W 3-2	46.7	1246	1192	56.16%	22.96%	20.89%	+0.51	+5.3	7
1986-05-16	@ Rosenborg	L 2-3	46.7	1192	1246	20.89%	22.96%	56.16%	-0.51	-5.3	5
1986-05-16	Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	46.1	1135	1107	53.32%	23.10%	23.58%	+0.38	-12.8	0
1986-05-16	@ Strommen	W 1-0	46.1	1107	1135	23.58%	23.10%	53.32%	-0.38	+12.8	7
1986-05-16	Bryne	D 0-0	50.5	1205	1198	50.90%	23.19%	25.91%	+0.29	-1.5	5
1986-05-16	@ Valerenga	D 0-0	50.5	1198	1205	25.91%	23.19%	50.90%	-0.29	+1.5	7
1986-05-16	Start	L 1-2	45.7	1084	1204	33.92%	23.20%	42.88%	-0.30	-8.3	1
1986-05-16	@ Viking	W 2-1	45.7	1204	1084	42.88%	23.20%	33.92%	+0.30	+8.3	8
1986-05-19	Mjondalen	L 0-1	44.7	1200	1220	47.62%	23.26%	29.12%	+0.16	-11.5	7
1986-05-19	@ Bryne	W 1-0	44.7	1220	1200	29.12%	23.26%	47.62%	-0.16	+11.5	8
1986-05-19	Viking	D 1-1	54.9	1120	1076	55.19%	23.01%	21.80%	+0.46	-1.8	8
1986-05-19	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	54.9	1076	1120	21.80%	23.01%	55.19%	-0.46	+1.8	2
1986-05-19	Rosenborg	W 1-0	40.3	1202	1251	43.83%	23.30%	32.87%	+0.03	+8.6	4
1986-05-19	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	40.3	1251	1202	32.87%	23.30%	43.83%	-0.03	-8.6	7
1986-05-19	Strommen	L 1-4	42.4	1107	1122	48.32%	23.25%	28.43%	+0.19	-27.0	4
1986-05-19	@ Molde	W 4-1	42.4	1122	1107	28.43%	23.25%	48.32%	-0.19	+27.0	2
1986-05-19	Kongsvinger	L 0-1	48.0	1212	1124	59.60%	22.71%	17.68%	+0.67	-14.2	8
1986-05-19	@ Start	W 1-0	48.0	1124	1212	17.68%	22.71%	59.60%	-0.67	+14.2	6
1986-05-19	Valerenga	D 1-1	55.0	1187	1203	48.09%	23.25%	28.66%	+0.18	-1.0	6
1986-05-19	@ Tromso	D 1-1	55.0	1203	1187	28.66%	23.25%	48.09%	-0.18	+1.0	6
1986-05-22	Bryne	L 0-1	45.7	1198	1188	51.32%	23.17%	25.51%	+0.30	-12.3	8
1986-05-22	@ Start	W 1-0	45.7	1188	1198	25.51%	23.17%	51.32%	-0.30	+12.3	9
1986-05-31	Valerenga	L 1-2	45.5	1080	1204	33.40%	23.19%	43.42%	-0.32	-8.2	4
1986-05-31	@ Molde	W 2-1	45.5	1204	1080	43.42%	23.19%	33.40%	+0.32	+8.2	8
1986-06-01	Rosenborg	W 3-1	40.9	1201	1242	44.82%	23.29%	31.89%	+0.06	+13.7	11
1986-06-01	@ Bryne	L 1-3	40.9	1242	1201	31.89%	23.29%	44.82%	-0.06	-13.7	7
1986-06-01	Mjondalen	W 3-2	52.9	1118	1232	34.86%	23.22%	41.92%	-0.27	+9.3	10
1986-06-01	@ Hamarkameratene	L 2-3	52.9	1232	1118	41.92%	23.22%	34.86%	+0.27	-9.3	8
1986-06-01	Viking	W 1-0	36.1	1138	1078	56.89%	22.91%	20.19%	+0.54	+5.8	8
1986-06-01	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-1	36.1	1078	1138	20.19%	22.91%	56.89%	-0.54	-5.8	2
1986-06-01	Tromso	W 2-0	32.9	1210	1186	53.02%	23.11%	23.87%	+0.37	+12.5	6
1986-06-01	@ Lillestrom	L 0-2	32.9	1186	1210	23.87%	23.11%	53.02%	-0.37	-12.5	6
1986-06-01	Strommen	W 2-1	42.2	1186	1149	54.40%	23.05%	22.55%	+0.43	+6.0	10
1986-06-01	@ Start	L 1-2	42.2	1149	1186	22.55%	23.05%	54.40%	-0.43	-6.0	2
1986-06-07	Lillestrom	L 0-2	40.6	1214	1223	49.07%	23.23%	27.70%	+0.22	-22.3	11
1986-06-07	@ Bryne	W 2-0	40.6	1223	1214	27.70%	23.23%	49.07%	-0.22	+22.3	8
1986-06-07	Kongsvinger	W 4-0	28.3	1222	1144	58.65%	22.79%	18.56%	+0.62	+19.2	10
1986-06-07	@ Mjondalen	L 0-4	28.3	1144	1222	18.56%	22.79%	58.65%	-0.62	-19.2	8
1986-06-07	Hamarkameratene	W 1-0	35.1	1229	1127	60.76%	22.61%	16.63%	+0.73	+4.9	9
1986-06-07	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	35.1	1127	1229	16.63%	22.61%	60.76%	-0.73	-4.9	10
1986-06-07	Viking	D 0-0	50.4	1143	1072	57.94%	22.84%	19.22%	+0.59	-2.4	3
1986-06-07	@ Strommen	D 0-0	50.4	1072	1143	19.22%	22.84%	57.94%	-0.59	+2.4	3
1986-06-07	Molde	L 0-2	43.7	1173	1072	60.77%	22.61%	16.62%	+0.73	-27.3	6
1986-06-07	@ Tromso	W 2-0	43.7	1072	1173	16.62%	22.61%	60.77%	-0.73	+27.3	6
1986-06-08	Start	W 1-0	37.6	1213	1192	52.56%	23.13%	24.31%	+0.35	+6.7	10
1986-06-08	@ Valerenga	L 0-1	37.6	1192	1213	24.31%	23.13%	52.56%	-0.35	-6.7	10
1986-06-14	Tromso	W 2-0	34.5	1123	1146	47.21%	23.27%	29.52%	+0.15	+14.9	12
1986-06-14	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	34.5	1146	1123	29.52%	23.27%	47.21%	-0.15	-14.9	6
1986-06-14	Valerenga	W 2-1	47.3	1125	1219	37.49%	23.27%	39.24%	-0.18	+9.3	10
1986-06-14	@ Kongsvinger	L 1-2	47.3	1219	1125	39.24%	23.27%	37.49%	+0.18	-9.3	10
1986-06-14	Bryne	L 1-3	42.4	1099	1192	37.75%	23.27%	38.98%	-0.17	-15.6	6
1986-06-14	@ Molde	W 3-1	42.4	1192	1099	38.98%	23.27%	37.75%	+0.17	+15.6	13
1986-06-14	Mjondalen	D 1-1	55.0	1074	1241	27.91%	22.98%	49.11%	-0.52	+1.1	4
1986-06-14	@ Viking	D 1-1	55.0	1241	1074	49.11%	22.98%	27.91%	+0.52	-1.1	11
1986-06-18	Molde	W 2-0	29.1	1240	1084	65.28%	22.06%	12.66%	+0.98	+7.2	13
1986-06-18	@ Mjondalen	L 0-2	29.1	1084	1240	12.66%	22.06%	65.28%	-0.98	-7.2	6
1986-06-18	Rosenborg	W 2-0	35.7	1185	1234	43.93%	23.30%	32.77%	+0.03	+16.1	12
1986-06-18	@ Start	L 0-2	35.7	1234	1185	32.77%	23.30%	43.93%	-0.03	-16.1	9
1986-06-19	Lillestrom	L 1-2	46.4	1140	1245	36.04%	23.24%	40.72%	-0.23	-8.7	3
1986-06-19	@ Strommen	W 2-1	46.4	1245	1140	40.72%	23.24%	36.04%	+0.23	+8.7	10
1986-06-21	Start	D 0-0	50.4	1131	1201	40.93%	23.30%	35.77%	-0.07	-0.3	7
1986-06-21	@ Tromso	D 0-0	50.4	1201	1131	35.77%	23.30%	40.93%	+0.07	+0.3	13
1986-06-22	Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	42.9	1208	1137	57.84%	22.85%	19.31%	+0.58	-26.0	13
1986-06-22	@ Bryne	W 2-0	42.9	1137	1208	19.31%	22.85%	57.84%	-0.58	+26.0	14
1986-06-22	Strommen	W 3-1	35.6	1248	1132	62.03%	22.48%	15.49%	+0.79	+7.5	15
1986-06-22	@ Mjondalen	L 1-3	35.6	1132	1248	15.49%	22.48%	62.03%	-0.79	-7.5	3
1986-06-22	Viking	D 1-1	55.1	1210	1075	63.59%	22.30%	14.11%	+0.88	-2.8	11
1986-06-22	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	55.1	1075	1210	14.11%	22.30%	63.59%	-0.88	+2.8	5
1986-06-24	Kongsvinger	L 1-3	48.7	1217	1134	59.12%	22.75%	18.13%	+0.64	-23.0	9
1986-06-24	@ Rosenborg	W 3-1	48.7	1134	1217	18.13%	22.75%	59.12%	-0.64	+23.0	12
1986-06-26	Molde	W 3-0	26.1	1254	1077	66.76%	21.83%	11.41%	+1.08	+9.4	12
1986-06-26	@ Lillestrom	L 0-3	26.1	1077	1254	11.41%	21.83%	66.76%	-1.08	-9.4	6
1986-08-03	Start	W 1-0	39.0	1182	1202	47.64%	23.26%	29.10%	+0.17	+7.8	15
1986-08-03	@ Bryne	L 0-1	39.0	1202	1182	29.10%	23.26%	47.64%	-0.17	-7.8	13
1986-08-03	Mjondalen	W 3-1	39.2	1263	1255	51.14%	23.18%	25.68%	+0.30	+11.5	14
1986-08-03	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	39.2	1255	1263	25.68%	23.18%	51.14%	-0.30	-11.5	15
1986-08-03	Hamarkameratene	D 2-2	60.2	1067	1164	37.22%	23.26%	39.51%	-0.19	+0.1	7
1986-08-03	@ Molde	D 2-2	60.2	1164	1067	39.51%	23.26%	37.22%	+0.19	-0.1	15
1986-08-03	Kongsvinger	W 3-2	49.3	1131	1157	46.84%	23.27%	29.88%	+0.14	+7.1	9
1986-08-03	@ Tromso	L 2-3	49.3	1157	1131	29.88%	23.27%	46.84%	-0.14	-7.1	12
1986-08-04	Viking	W 4-1	32.3	1194	1078	62.08%	22.47%	15.45%	+0.80	+10.5	11
1986-08-04	@ Rosenborg	L 1-4	32.3	1078	1194	15.45%	22.47%	62.08%	-0.80	-10.5	5
1986-08-06	Strommen	W 3-1	36.4	1207	1124	59.07%	22.76%	18.18%	+0.64	+8.6	13
1986-08-06	@ Valerenga	L 1-3	36.4	1124	1207	18.18%	22.76%	59.07%	-0.64	-8.6	3
1986-08-09	Tromso	W 1-0	40.9	1068	1138	40.90%	23.30%	35.80%	-0.07	+9.2	7
1986-08-09	@ Viking	L 0-1	40.9	1138	1068	35.80%	23.30%	40.90%	+0.07	-9.2	9
1986-08-10	Lillestrom	L 2-3	51.0	1163	1275	35.11%	23.23%	41.66%	-0.26	-8.1	15
1986-08-10	@ Hamarkameratene	W 3-2	51.0	1275	1163	41.66%	23.23%	35.11%	+0.26	+8.1	16
1986-08-10	Bryne	W 1-0	39.7	1150	1189	45.13%	23.29%	31.58%	+0.08	+8.3	14
1986-08-10	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-1	39.7	1189	1150	31.58%	23.29%	45.13%	-0.08	-8.3	15
1986-08-10	Valerenga	W 4-1	35.1	1243	1216	53.37%	23.10%	23.54%	+0.39	+15.1	17
1986-08-10	@ Mjondalen	L 1-4	35.1	1216	1243	23.54%	23.10%	53.37%	-0.39	-15.1	13
1986-08-10	Molde	W 1-0	34.3	1194	1067	62.93%	22.38%	14.69%	+0.84	+4.4	15
1986-08-10	@ Start	L 0-1	34.3	1067	1194	14.69%	22.38%	62.93%	-0.84	-4.3	7
1986-08-10	Rosenborg	D 1-1	54.9	1116	1205	38.25%	23.28%	38.47%	-0.15	+0.0	4
1986-08-10	@ Strommen	D 1-1	54.9	1205	1116	38.47%	23.28%	38.25%	+0.15	-0.0	12
1986-08-13	Start	L 3-4	60.1	1259	1198	56.87%	22.91%	20.22%	+0.54	-11.8	17
1986-08-13	@ Mjondalen	W 4-3	60.1	1198	1259	20.22%	22.91%	56.87%	-0.54	+11.8	17
1986-08-13	Molde	D 1-1	55.1	1205	1063	64.17%	22.22%	13.61%	+0.92	-2.9	13
1986-08-13	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	55.1	1063	1205	13.61%	22.22%	64.17%	-0.92	+2.9	8
1986-08-13	Kongsvinger	W 4-1	37.5	1116	1158	44.71%	23.30%	31.99%	+0.06	+19.4	6
1986-08-13	@ Strommen	L 1-4	37.5	1158	1116	31.99%	23.30%	44.71%	-0.06	-19.4	14
1986-08-13	Bryne	L 0-1	43.3	1129	1181	43.40%	23.30%	33.30%	+0.02	-10.7	9
1986-08-13	@ Tromso	W 1-0	43.3	1181	1129	33.30%	23.30%	43.40%	-0.02	+10.7	17
1986-08-13	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	55.0	1201	1155	55.29%	23.01%	21.71%	+0.47	-1.8	14
1986-08-13	@ Valerenga	D 1-1	55.0	1155	1201	21.71%	23.01%	55.29%	-0.47	+1.8	16
1986-08-13	Lillestrom	L 0-3	30.0	1077	1283	23.51%	22.71%	53.77%	-0.70	-17.8	7
1986-08-13	@ Viking	W 3-0	30.0	1283	1077	53.77%	22.71%	23.51%	+0.70	+17.8	18
1986-08-17	Viking	W 2-0	29.6	1192	1059	63.44%	22.32%	14.25%	+0.87	+8.0	19
1986-08-17	@ Bryne	L 0-2	29.6	1059	1192	14.25%	22.32%	63.44%	-0.87	-8.0	7
1986-08-17	Start	D 2-2	60.3	1157	1210	43.32%	23.30%	33.38%	+0.01	-0.4	17
1986-08-17	@ Hamarkameratene	D 2-2	60.3	1210	1157	33.38%	23.30%	43.32%	-0.01	+0.4	18
1986-08-17	Kongsvinger	L 0-2	37.8	1066	1139	40.52%	23.30%	36.18%	-0.08	-19.0	8
1986-08-17	@ Molde	W 2-0	37.8	1139	1066	36.18%	23.30%	40.52%	+0.08	+19.0	16
1986-08-17	Mjondalen	W 3-0	33.0	1202	1247	44.41%	23.30%	32.29%	+0.05	+23.2	15
1986-08-17	@ Rosenborg	L 0-3	33.0	1247	1202	32.29%	23.30%	44.41%	-0.05	-23.2	17
1986-08-17	Strommen	D 1-1	54.8	1118	1135	48.02%	23.25%	28.73%	+0.18	-1.0	10
1986-08-17	@ Tromso	D 1-1	54.8	1135	1118	28.73%	23.25%	48.02%	-0.18	+1.0	7
1986-08-18	Lillestrom	L 0-1	41.5	1199	1301	36.42%	23.25%	40.32%	-0.21	-9.3	14
1986-08-18	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	41.5	1301	1199	40.32%	23.25%	36.42%	+0.21	+9.3	20
1986-08-23	Bryne	L 3-4	55.6	1136	1200	41.86%	23.30%	34.83%	-0.04	-9.0	7
1986-08-23	@ Strommen	W 4-3	55.6	1200	1136	34.83%	23.30%	41.86%	+0.04	+9.0	21
1986-08-24	Hamarkameratene	W 2-1	43.5	1158	1157	50.26%	23.20%	26.53%	+0.26	+6.8	18
1986-08-24	@ Kongsvinger	L 1-2	43.5	1157	1158	26.53%	23.20%	50.26%	-0.26	-6.8	17
1986-08-24	Start	W 3-1	36.4	1310	1210	60.63%	22.62%	16.75%	+0.72	+8.0	22
1986-08-24	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	36.4	1210	1310	16.75%	22.62%	60.63%	-0.72	-8.0	18
1986-08-24	Tromso	W 2-0	30.4	1224	1117	61.23%	22.56%	16.21%	+0.75	+9.0	19
1986-08-24	@ Mjondalen	L 0-2	30.4	1117	1224	16.21%	22.56%	61.23%	-0.75	-9.0	10
1986-08-24	Molde	L 0-2	40.8	1051	1047	50.63%	23.19%	26.18%	+0.28	-23.0	7
1986-08-24	@ Viking	W 2-0	40.8	1047	1051	26.18%	23.19%	50.63%	-0.28	+23.0	10
1986-08-25	Rosenborg	W 3-0	32.6	1189	1225	45.62%	23.29%	31.10%	+0.09	+22.5	16
1986-08-25	@ Valerenga	L 0-3	32.6	1225	1189	31.10%	23.29%	45.62%	-0.09	-22.5	15
1986-08-30	Rosenborg	W 2-0	37.5	1108	1203	37.48%	23.27%	39.25%	-0.18	+18.5	12
1986-08-30	@ Tromso	L 0-2	37.5	1203	1108	39.25%	23.27%	37.48%	+0.18	-18.6	15
1986-08-31	Valerenga	L 0-1	45.3	1209	1212	49.73%	23.22%	27.05%	+0.24	-12.0	21
1986-08-31	@ Bryne	W 1-0	45.3	1212	1209	27.05%	23.22%	49.73%	-0.24	+12.0	18
1986-08-31	Strommen	W 1-0	37.4	1150	1127	52.81%	23.12%	24.07%	+0.36	+6.7	19
1986-08-31	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-1	37.4	1127	1150	24.07%	23.12%	52.81%	-0.36	-6.7	7
1986-08-31	Kongsvinger	W 4-1	31.7	1318	1165	65.03%	22.10%	12.87%	+0.97	+8.9	24
1986-08-31	@ Lillestrom	L 1-4	31.7	1165	1318	12.87%	22.10%	65.03%	-0.97	-8.9	18
1986-08-31	Mjondalen	D 2-2	60.4	1070	1233	28.46%	23.01%	48.54%	-0.50	+0.8	11
1986-08-31	@ Molde	D 2-2	60.4	1233	1070	48.54%	23.01%	28.46%	+0.50	-0.8	20
1986-08-31	Viking	D 2-2	60.7	1202	1028	66.56%	21.86%	11.58%	+1.07	-2.4	19
1986-08-31	@ Start	D 2-2	60.7	1028	1202	11.58%	21.86%	66.56%	-1.07	+2.4	8
1986-09-07	Start	D 0-0	50.4	1156	1200	44.49%	23.30%	32.21%	+0.05	-0.7	19
1986-09-07	@ Kongsvinger	D 0-0	50.4	1200	1156	32.21%	23.30%	44.49%	-0.05	+0.7	20
1986-09-07	Bryne	W 4-2	41.8	1232	1197	54.18%	23.06%	22.76%	+0.42	+9.3	22
1986-09-07	@ Mjondalen	L 2-4	41.8	1197	1232	22.76%	23.06%	54.18%	-0.42	-9.3	21
1986-09-07	Lillestrom	D 1-1	55.3	1184	1327	30.94%	23.11%	45.95%	-0.40	+0.8	16
1986-09-07	@ Rosenborg	D 1-1	55.3	1327	1184	45.95%	23.11%	30.94%	+0.40	-0.8	25
1986-09-07	Molde	L 1-3	47.7	1120	1071	55.78%	22.98%	21.24%	+0.49	-21.8	7
1986-09-07	@ Strommen	W 3-1	47.7	1071	1120	21.24%	22.98%	55.78%	-0.49	+21.8	13
1986-09-07	Tromso	L 0-1	48.2	1224	1127	60.41%	22.64%	16.95%	+0.71	-14.4	18
1986-09-07	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	48.2	1127	1224	16.95%	22.64%	60.41%	-0.71	+14.4	14
1986-09-07	Hamarkameratene	W 6-4	50.2	1030	1157	33.11%	23.18%	43.71%	-0.33	+14.3	10
1986-09-07	@ Viking	L 4-6	50.2	1157	1030	43.71%	23.18%	33.11%	+0.33	-14.3	19
1986-09-14	Tromso	W 2-1	41.9	1187	1141	55.40%	23.00%	21.60%	+0.47	+5.8	23
1986-09-14	@ Bryne	L 1-2	41.9	1141	1187	21.60%	23.00%	55.40%	-0.47	-5.8	14
1986-09-14	Valerenga	L 3-5	49.0	1142	1210	41.35%	23.30%	35.35%	-0.05	-14.2	19
1986-09-14	@ Hamarkameratene	W 5-3	49.0	1210	1142	35.35%	23.30%	41.35%	+0.05	+14.2	20
1986-09-14	Strommen	W 3-0	29.1	1155	1099	56.46%	22.94%	20.60%	+0.52	+16.0	21
1986-09-14	@ Kongsvinger	L 0-3	29.1	1099	1155	20.60%	22.94%	56.46%	-0.52	-16.0	7
1986-09-14	Viking	W 3-1	32.3	1326	1045	72.87%	20.37%	6.76%	+1.56	+3.4	27
1986-09-14	@ Lillestrom	L 1-3	32.3	1045	1326	6.76%	20.37%	72.87%	-1.56	-3.4	10
1986-09-14	Rosenborg	W 1-0	41.9	1092	1185	37.75%	23.27%	38.97%	-0.17	+9.8	15
1986-09-14	@ Molde	L 0-1	41.9	1185	1092	38.97%	23.27%	37.75%	+0.17	-9.8	16
1986-09-14	Mjondalen	D 0-0	50.5	1201	1241	45.00%	23.29%	31.71%	+0.07	-0.8	21
1986-09-14	@ Start	D 0-0	50.5	1241	1201	31.71%	23.29%	45.00%	-0.07	+0.8	23
1986-09-27	Bryne	W 3-2	49.1	1175	1193	47.89%	23.26%	28.85%	+0.17	+6.9	18
1986-09-27	@ Rosenborg	L 2-3	49.1	1193	1175	28.85%	23.26%	47.89%	-0.17	-6.9	23
1986-09-28	Hamarkameratene	D 0-0	50.7	1242	1128	61.85%	22.50%	15.65%	+0.78	-2.9	24
1986-09-28	@ Mjondalen	D 0-0	50.7	1128	1242	15.65%	22.50%	61.85%	-0.78	+2.9	20
1986-09-28	Start	D 1-1	54.9	1083	1200	34.32%	23.21%	42.47%	-0.28	+0.4	8
1986-09-28	@ Strommen	D 1-1	54.9	1200	1083	42.47%	23.21%	34.32%	+0.28	-0.4	22
1986-09-28	Molde	L 2-3	58.9	1224	1102	62.53%	22.42%	15.05%	+0.82	-13.3	20
1986-09-28	@ Valerenga	W 3-2	58.9	1102	1224	15.05%	22.42%	62.53%	-0.82	+13.3	17
1986-09-28	Kongsvinger	D 1-1	54.8	1041	1171	32.63%	23.16%	44.20%	-0.34	+0.6	11
1986-09-28	@ Viking	D 1-1	54.8	1171	1041	44.20%	23.16%	32.63%	+0.34	-0.6	22
1986-10-05	Rosenborg	D 1-1	54.9	1131	1182	43.59%	23.30%	33.11%	+0.02	-0.5	21
1986-10-05	@ Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	54.9	1182	1131	33.11%	23.30%	43.59%	-0.02	+0.5	19
1986-10-05	Mjondalen	D 0-0	50.5	1171	1239	41.19%	23.30%	35.51%	-0.06	-0.3	23
1986-10-05	@ Kongsvinger	D 0-0	50.5	1239	1171	35.51%	23.30%	41.19%	+0.06	+0.3	25
1986-10-05	Bryne	W 3-0	27.2	1330	1186	64.27%	22.21%	13.52%	+0.92	+11.0	29
1986-10-05	@ Lillestrom	L 0-3	27.2	1186	1330	13.52%	22.21%	64.27%	-0.92	-11.0	23
1986-10-05	Tromso	D 1-1	54.8	1115	1135	47.65%	23.26%	29.09%	+0.17	-1.0	18
1986-10-05	@ Molde	D 1-1	54.8	1135	1115	29.09%	23.26%	47.65%	-0.17	+1.0	15
1986-10-05	Valerenga	L 1-2	50.3	1200	1210	48.79%	23.24%	27.97%	+0.21	-11.1	22
1986-10-05	@ Start	W 2-1	50.3	1210	1200	27.97%	23.24%	48.79%	-0.21	+11.1	22
1986-10-05	Strommen	W 4-0	32.3	1042	1083	44.89%	23.29%	31.82%	+0.07	+29.9	13
1986-10-05	@ Viking	L 0-4	32.3	1083	1042	31.82%	23.29%	44.89%	-0.07	-29.9	8
1986-10-08	Lillestrom	W 2-1	51.7	1136	1341	23.72%	22.73%	53.55%	-0.69	+12.0	17
1986-10-08	@ Tromso	L 1-2	51.7	1341	1136	53.55%	22.73%	23.72%	+0.69	-12.0	29
1986-10-12	Molde	L 1-3	48.1	1175	1114	56.91%	22.91%	20.18%	+0.54	-22.2	23
1986-10-12	@ Bryne	W 3-1	48.1	1114	1175	20.18%	22.91%	56.91%	-0.54	+22.2	20
1986-10-12	Strommen	W 1-0	31.6	1329	1053	72.56%	20.47%	6.97%	+1.53	+2.1	31
1986-10-12	@ Lillestrom	L 0-1	31.6	1053	1329	6.97%	20.47%	72.56%	-1.53	-2.1	8
1986-10-12	Viking	L 0-1	49.6	1239	1072	66.06%	21.94%	12.00%	+1.03	-15.7	25
1986-10-12	@ Mjondalen	W 1-0	49.6	1072	1239	12.00%	21.94%	66.06%	-1.03	+15.7	15
1986-10-12	Start	W 1-0	38.5	1183	1188	49.41%	23.23%	27.36%	+0.23	+7.4	21
1986-10-12	@ Rosenborg	L 0-1	38.5	1188	1183	27.36%	23.23%	49.41%	-0.23	-7.4	22
1986-10-12	Hamarkameratene	D 1-1	54.9	1148	1131	52.23%	23.14%	24.63%	+0.34	-1.5	18
1986-10-12	@ Tromso	D 1-1	54.9	1131	1148	24.63%	23.14%	52.23%	-0.34	+1.5	22
1986-10-12	Kongsvinger	L 0-1	47.0	1222	1170	55.92%	22.97%	21.11%	+0.50	-13.4	22
1986-10-12	@ Valerenga	W 1-0	47.0	1170	1222	21.11%	22.97%	55.92%	-0.50	+13.4	25
1986-10-19	Bryne	W 2-0	34.4	1132	1153	47.52%	23.26%	29.22%	+0.16	+14.7	24
1986-10-19	@ Hamarkameratene	L 0-2	34.4	1153	1132	29.22%	23.26%	47.52%	-0.16	-14.7	23
1986-10-19	Rosenborg	W 2-1	43.8	1184	1190	49.35%	23.23%	27.42%	+0.23	+7.0	27
1986-10-19	@ Kongsvinger	L 1-2	43.8	1190	1184	27.42%	23.23%	49.35%	-0.23	-7.0	21
1986-10-19	Lillestrom	L 0-1	37.8	1137	1331	24.83%	22.81%	52.37%	-0.64	-6.8	20
1986-10-19	@ Molde	W 1-0	37.8	1331	1137	52.37%	22.81%	24.83%	+0.64	+6.8	33
1986-10-19	Tromso	W 6-2	35.1	1181	1147	54.08%	23.07%	22.86%	+0.42	+16.2	24
1986-10-19	@ Start	L 2-6	35.1	1147	1181	22.86%	23.07%	54.08%	-0.42	-16.2	18
1986-10-19	Mjondalen	L 1-2	43.6	1051	1224	27.30%	22.95%	49.75%	-0.54	-7.0	8
1986-10-19	@ Strommen	W 2-1	43.6	1224	1051	49.75%	22.95%	27.30%	+0.54	+7.0	27
1986-10-19	Valerenga	W 1-0	43.1	1088	1208	33.87%	23.20%	42.93%	-0.30	+10.6	17
1986-10-19	@ Viking	L 0-1	43.1	1208	1088	42.93%	23.20%	33.87%	+0.30	-10.6	22

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1986-10-12	12.00%	Viking	1072	1	@ Mjondalen	1239	0
2	1986-05-04	12.39%	Hamarkameratene	1076	2	@ Lillestrom	1237	0
3	1986-09-28	15.05%	Molde	1102	3	@ Valerenga	1224	2
4	1986-06-07	16.62%	Molde	1072	2	@ Tromso	1173	0
5	1986-09-07	16.95%	Tromso	1127	1	@ Valerenga	1224	0
6	1986-05-19	17.68%	Kongsvinger	1124	1	@ Start	1212	0
7	1986-06-24	18.13%	Kongsvinger	1134	3	@ Rosenborg	1217	1
8	1986-06-22	19.31%	Hamarkameratene	1137	2	@ Bryne	1208	0
9	1986-05-11	19.63%	Valerenga	1192	2	@ Rosenborg	1259	1
10	1986-10-12	20.18%	Molde	1114	3	@ Bryne	1175	1
11	1986-08-13	20.22%	Start	1198	4	@ Mjondalen	1259	3
12	1986-10-12	21.11%	Kongsvinger	1170	1	@ Valerenga	1222	0
13	1986-09-07	21.24%	Molde	1071	3	@ Strommen	1120	1
14	1986-05-16	23.58%	Hamarkameratene	1107	1	@ Strommen	1135	0
15	1986-10-08	23.72%	@ Tromso	1136	2	Lillestrom	1341	1
16	1986-05-22	25.51%	Bryne	1188	1	@ Start	1198	0
17	1986-05-05	26.06%	Mjondalen	1219	1	@ Valerenga	1224	0
18	1986-08-24	26.18%	Molde	1047	2	@ Viking	1051	0
19	1986-08-31	27.05%	Valerenga	1212	1	@ Bryne	1209	0
20	1986-05-08	27.22%	Rosenborg	1236	2	@ Mjondalen	1231	0
21	1986-05-11	27.31%	Mjondalen	1209	2	@ Tromso	1203	1
22	1986-05-04	27.45%	Start	1141	4	@ Molde	1134	0
23	1986-06-07	27.70%	Lillestrom	1223	2	@ Bryne	1214	0
24	1986-04-27	27.71%	Valerenga	1205	3	@ Strommen	1196	1
25	1986-10-05	27.97%	Valerenga	1210	2	@ Start	1200	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1986-05-04	42.59	Start	4	1141	27.45%	@ Molde	0	1134	49.32%	23.23%
2	1986-10-05	29.93	@ Viking	4	1042	44.89%	Strommen	0	1083	31.82%	23.29%
3	1986-05-04	29.46	Hamarkameratene	2	1076	12.39%	@ Lillestrom	0	1237	65.59%	22.02%
4	1986-06-07	27.30	Molde	2	1072	16.62%	@ Tromso	0	1173	60.77%	22.61%
5	1986-05-19	27.00	Strommen	4	1122	28.43%	@ Molde	1	1107	48.32%	23.25%
6	1986-06-22	26.02	Hamarkameratene	2	1137	19.31%	@ Bryne	0	1208	57.84%	22.85%
7	1986-08-17	23.18	@ Rosenborg	3	1202	44.41%	Mjondalen	0	1247	32.29%	23.30%
8	1986-06-24	23.02	Kongsvinger	3	1134	18.13%	@ Rosenborg	1	1217	59.12%	22.75%
9	1986-08-24	22.98	Molde	2	1047	26.18%	@ Viking	0	1051	50.63%	23.19%
10	1986-05-08	22.54	Rosenborg	2	1236	27.22%	@ Mjondalen	0	1231	49.55%	23.22%
11	1986-08-25	22.50	@ Valerenga	3	1189	45.62%	Rosenborg	0	1225	31.10%	23.29%
12	1986-06-07	22.35	Lillestrom	2	1223	27.70%	@ Bryne	0	1214	49.07%	23.23%
13	1986-10-12	22.18	Molde	3	1114	20.18%	@ Bryne	1	1175	56.91%	22.91%
14	1986-09-07	21.77	Molde	3	1071	21.24%	@ Strommen	1	1120	55.78%	22.98%
15	1986-05-08	20.24	@ Lillestrom	3	1207	49.53%	Valerenga	0	1212	27.25%	23.22%
16	1986-08-13	19.40	@ Strommen	4	1116	44.71%	Kongsvinger	1	1158	31.99%	23.30%
17	1986-04-27	19.35	Valerenga	3	1205	27.71%	@ Strommen	1	1196	49.06%	23.23%
18	1986-06-07	19.16	@ Mjondalen	4	1222	58.65%	Kongsvinger	0	1144	18.56%	22.79%
19	1986-08-17	19.04	Kongsvinger	2	1139	36.18%	@ Molde	0	1066	40.52%	23.30%
20	1986-08-30	18.55	@ Tromso	2	1108	37.48%	Rosenborg	0	1203	39.25%	23.27%
21	1986-08-13	17.83	Lillestrom	3	1283	53.77%	@ Viking	0	1077	23.51%	22.71%
22	1986-05-05	16.98	@ Rosenborg	3	1219	54.95%	Strommen	0	1177	22.03%	23.02%
23	1986-04-27	16.23	@ Mjondalen	2	1203	43.71%	Lillestrom	0	1253	32.99%	23.30%
24	1986-10-19	16.18	@ Start	6	1181	54.08%	Tromso	2	1147	22.86%	23.07%
25	1986-06-18	16.15	@ Start	2	1185	43.93%	Rosenborg	0	1234	32.77%	23.30%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1986-08-31	60.7	@ Start	2	1202	66.56%	Viking	2	1028	11.58%	21.86%
2	1986-08-31	60.4	@ Molde	2	1070	28.46%	Mjondalen	2	1233	48.54%	23.01%
3	1986-08-17	60.3	@ Hamarkameratene	2	1157	43.32%	Start	2	1210	33.38%	23.30%
4	1986-08-03	60.2	@ Molde	2	1067	37.22%	Hamarkameratene	2	1164	39.51%	23.26%
5	1986-08-13	60.1	Start	4	1198	20.22%	@ Mjondalen	3	1259	56.87%	22.91%
6	1986-09-28	58.9	Molde	3	1102	15.05%	@ Valerenga	2	1224	62.53%	22.42%
7	1986-08-23	55.6	Bryne	4	1200	34.83%	@ Strommen	3	1136	41.86%	23.30%
8	1986-09-07	55.3	@ Rosenborg	1	1184	30.94%	Lillestrom	1	1327	45.95%	23.11%
9	1986-06-22	55.1	@ Valerenga	1	1210	63.59%	Viking	1	1075	14.11%	22.30%
10	1986-08-13	55.1	@ Rosenborg	1	1205	64.17%	Molde	1	1063	13.61%	22.22%
11	1986-05-19	55.0	@ Tromso	1	1187	48.09%	Valerenga	1	1203	28.66%	23.25%
12	1986-06-14	55.0	@ Viking	1	1074	27.91%	Mjondalen	1	1241	49.11%	22.98%
13	1986-08-13	55.0	@ Valerenga	1	1201	55.29%	Hamarkameratene	1	1155	21.71%	23.01%
14	1986-05-01	54.9	@ Kongsvinger	1	1140	44.80%	Tromso	1	1181	31.90%	23.29%
15	1986-05-19	54.9	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1120	55.19%	Viking	1	1076	21.80%	23.01%
16	1986-08-10	54.9	@ Strommen	1	1116	38.25%	Rosenborg	1	1205	38.47%	23.28%
17	1986-09-28	54.9	@ Strommen	1	1083	34.32%	Start	1	1200	42.47%	23.21%
18	1986-10-05	54.9	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1131	43.59%	Rosenborg	1	1182	33.11%	23.30%
19	1986-10-12	54.9	@ Tromso	1	1148	52.23%	Hamarkameratene	1	1131	24.63%	23.14%
20	1986-04-27	54.8	@ Hamarkameratene	1	1076	42.71%	Molde	1	1134	33.99%	23.30%
21	1986-08-17	54.8	@ Tromso	1	1118	48.02%	Strommen	1	1135	28.73%	23.25%
22	1986-09-28	54.8	@ Viking	1	1041	32.63%	Kongsvinger	1	1171	44.20%	23.16%
23	1986-10-05	54.8	@ Molde	1	1115	47.65%	Tromso	1	1135	29.09%	23.26%
24	1986-05-11	52.9	Valerenga	2	1192	19.63%	@ Rosenborg	1	1259	57.50%	22.87%
25	1986-06-01	52.9	@ Hamarkameratene	3	1118	34.86%	Mjondalen	2	1232	41.92%	23.22%

#	Date	Excitement	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Excitement	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1986-06-26	26.1	@ Lillestrom	3	1254	66.76%	Molde	0	1077	11.41%	21.83%
2	1986-10-05	27.2	@ Lillestrom	3	1330	64.27%	Bryne	0	1186	13.52%	22.21%
3	1986-06-07	28.3	@ Mjondalen	4	1222	58.65%	Kongsvinger	0	1144	18.56%	22.79%
4	1986-06-18	29.1	@ Mjondalen	2	1240	65.28%	Molde	0	1084	12.66%	22.06%
5	1986-09-14	29.1	@ Kongsvinger	3	1155	56.46%	Strommen	0	1099	20.60%	22.94%
6	1986-08-17	29.6	@ Bryne	2	1192	63.44%	Viking	0	1059	14.25%	22.32%
7	1986-05-05	29.7	@ Rosenborg	3	1219	54.95%	Strommen	0	1177	22.03%	23.02%
8	1986-08-13	30.0	Lillestrom	3	1283	53.77%	@ Viking	0	1077	23.51%	22.71%
9	1986-08-24	30.4	@ Mjondalen	2	1224	61.23%	Tromso	0	1117	16.21%	22.56%
10	1986-05-08	31.4	@ Lillestrom	3	1207	49.53%	Valerenga	0	1212	27.25%	23.22%
11	1986-05-03	31.5	@ Tromso	2	1182	57.21%	Viking	0	1118	19.90%	22.89%
12	1986-10-12	31.6	@ Lillestrom	1	1329	72.56%	Strommen	0	1053	6.97%	20.47%
13	1986-08-31	31.7	@ Lillestrom	4	1318	65.03%	Kongsvinger	1	1165	12.87%	22.10%
14	1986-08-04	32.3	@ Rosenborg	4	1194	62.08%	Viking	1	1078	15.45%	22.47%
15	1986-09-14	32.3	@ Lillestrom	3	1326	72.87%	Viking	1	1045	6.76%	20.37%
16	1986-10-05	32.3	@ Viking	4	1042	44.89%	Strommen	0	1083	31.82%	23.29%
17	1986-08-25	32.6	@ Valerenga	3	1189	45.62%	Rosenborg	0	1225	31.10%	23.29%
18	1986-06-01	32.9	@ Lillestrom	2	1210	53.02%	Tromso	0	1186	23.87%	23.11%
19	1986-08-17	33.0	@ Rosenborg	3	1202	44.41%	Mjondalen	0	1247	32.29%	23.30%
20	1986-05-11	33.8	@ Molde	2	1093	49.57%	Viking	0	1098	27.21%	23.22%
21	1986-08-10	34.3	@ Start	1	1194	62.93%	Molde	0	1067	14.69%	22.38%
22	1986-10-19	34.4	@ Hamarkameratene	2	1132	47.52%	Bryne	0	1153	29.22%	23.26%
23	1986-06-14	34.5	@ Hamarkameratene	2	1123	47.21%	Tromso	0	1146	29.52%	23.27%
24	1986-05-11	34.7	@ Bryne	4	1184	54.09%	Strommen	1	1149	22.85%	23.06%
25	1986-06-07	35.1	@ Rosenborg	1	1229	60.76%	Hamarkameratene	0	1127	16.63%	22.61%