1938 Campeonato da Liga Season
56 games · 100,000 simulations
Champion
Porto
23 points
Relegated
No relegation
Biggest Overachiever
Porto
8.22 points above expected
23 points · 14.78 expected points
Biggest Disappointment
Academico do Porto
9.25 points below expected
5 points · 14.25 expected points
League Table
The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.
| # | Team | GP | W | D | L | Pts | GF | GA | GD | SimPts | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 14 | 11 | 1 | 2 | 23 | 43 | 22 | +21 | 14.8 | +8.22 |
| 2 | Benfica | 14 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 23 | 34 | 16 | +18 | 15.1 | +7.88 |
| 3 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 14 | 10 | 2 | 2 | 22 | 67 | 23 | +44 | 15.1 | +6.93 |
| 4 | Carcavelinhos | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | 11 | 18 | 36 | -18 | 11.1 | -0.08 |
| 5 | Os Belenenses (1st) | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 29 | 28 | +1 | 15.1 | -5.08 |
| 6 | Academica de Coimbra | 14 | 5 | 0 | 9 | 10 | 23 | 37 | -14 | 12.4 | -2.41 |
| 7 | Barreirense | 14 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 8 | 18 | 34 | -16 | 14.2 | -6.21 |
| 8 | Academico do Porto | 14 | 2 | 1 | 11 | 5 | 15 | 51 | -36 | 14.2 | -9.25 |
Form
Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)
League Race
Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.
Season Summary
Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).
| Team | Elo | Points | Avg | Luck | Percentile | Min | 5th | Q1 | Median | Q3 | 95th | Max |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1688 | 22 | 15.07 | +6.93 | 100.0% | 7 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 21 |
| Benfica | 1679 | 23 | 15.12 | +7.88 | 99.0% | 8 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 26 |
| Porto | 1658 | 23 | 14.78 | +8.22 | 100.0% | 6 | 9 | 12 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 21 |
| Os Belenenses (1st) | 1631 | 10 | 15.08 | -5.08 | 10.0% | 6 | 10 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 21 |
| Barreirense | 1620 | 8 | 14.21 | -6.21 | 5.0% | 8 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 19 | 23 |
| Academico do Porto | 1591 | 5 | 14.25 | -9.25 | 0.0% | 7 | 9 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 23 |
| Academica de Coimbra | 1574 | 10 | 12.41 | -2.41 | 33.0% | 6 | 7 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 18 | 20 |
| Carcavelinhos | 1549 | 11 | 11.08 | -0.08 | 54.0% | 4 | 6 | 9 | 11 | 13 | 16 | 19 |
Head-to-Head
Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.
| Team | ADC | ADP | BAR | BEN | CAR | OB( | POR | SCDP |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Academica de Coimbra | — |
2-0-0
2.48
|
2-0-0
2.49
|
0-0-2
2.26
|
1-0-1
3.05
|
0-0-2
2.51
|
0-0-2
2.48
|
0-0-2
2.45
|
| Academico do Porto |
0-0-2
3.29
|
— |
1-1-0
2.82
|
0-0-2
2.77
|
0-0-2
3.39
|
1-0-1
2.81
|
0-0-2
2.69
|
0-0-2
2.44
|
| Barreirense |
0-0-2
3.28
|
0-1-1
2.95
|
— |
0-1-1
2.67
|
0-1-1
3.46
|
2-0-0
2.81
|
0-0-2
2.87
|
0-1-1
2.88
|
| Benfica |
2-0-0
3.52
|
2-0-0
3.01
|
1-1-0
3.10
|
— |
2-0-0
3.70
|
1-0-1
3.13
|
1-1-0
3.08
|
1-1-0
3.02
|
| Carcavelinhos |
1-0-1
2.72
|
2-0-0
2.38
|
1-1-0
2.32
|
0-0-2
2.08
|
— |
1-0-1
2.25
|
0-0-2
2.35
|
0-0-2
2.19
|
| Os Belenenses (1st) |
2-0-0
3.26
|
1-0-1
2.96
|
0-0-2
2.96
|
1-0-1
2.64
|
1-0-1
3.53
|
— |
0-0-2
2.81
|
0-0-2
2.85
|
| Porto |
2-0-0
3.29
|
2-0-0
3.08
|
2-0-0
2.90
|
0-1-1
2.69
|
2-0-0
3.42
|
2-0-0
2.96
|
— |
1-0-1
2.85
|
| Sporting Clube de Portugal |
2-0-0
3.33
|
2-0-0
3.33
|
1-1-0
2.89
|
0-1-1
2.75
|
2-0-0
3.58
|
2-0-0
2.92
|
1-0-1
2.92
|
— |
Goal Differential vs Points
Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.
Scoreline Distribution
Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.79% | 5.36% | 0.89% | 0.89% | 3.57% | 3.57% | 16.07% |
| 1 | 5.36% | 1.79% | 8.04% | 5.36% | 4.46% | 3.57% | 28.57% |
| 2 | 0.89% | 8.04% | 7.14% | 4.46% | — | 2.68% | 23.21% |
| 3 | 0.89% | 5.36% | 4.46% | — | — | 0.89% | 11.61% |
| 4 | 3.57% | 4.46% | — | — | — | — | 8.04% |
| 5+ | 3.57% | 3.57% | 2.68% | 0.89% | — | 1.79% | 12.50% |
| Total | 16.07% | 28.57% | 23.21% | 11.61% | 8.04% | 12.50% | 100% |
Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 2.21 |
| Mean allowed | 2.21 |
| StdDev scored | 2.04 |
| StdDev allowed | 2.04 |
| Mean total goals/game | 4.41 |
| Correlation (home vs away score) | -0.248 |
| Sample size (games) | 56 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 1 | 14.29% | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | 57.14% |
| 2 | — | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% |
| 3 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| Total | 21.43% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 21.43% | 100% |
Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.64 |
| Mean allowed | 2.64 |
| StdDev scored | 1.60 |
| StdDev allowed | 2.17 |
| Mean total goals/game | 4.29 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.528 |
| Games played | 14 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 7.14% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 50.00% |
| 1 | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 21.43% |
| 2 | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% |
| 3 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| 4 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | — | 21.43% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 21.43% | 35.71% | 100% |
Academico do Porto — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.07 |
| Mean allowed | 3.64 |
| StdDev scored | 1.38 |
| StdDev allowed | 2.02 |
| Mean total goals/game | 4.71 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.073 |
| Games played | 14 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 1 | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | 50.00% |
| 2 | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | 7.14% | 28.57% |
| 3 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 7.14% | 21.43% | 35.71% | 14.29% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 100% |
Barreirense — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.29 |
| Mean allowed | 2.43 |
| StdDev scored | 0.83 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.74 |
| Mean total goals/game | 3.71 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.283 |
| Games played | 14 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 1 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 2 | — | 21.43% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 35.71% |
| 3 | 7.14% | 14.29% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 35.71% |
| 4 | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 21.43% | 42.86% | 35.71% | — | — | — | 100% |
Benfica — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 2.43 |
| Mean allowed | 1.14 |
| StdDev scored | 1.09 |
| StdDev allowed | 0.77 |
| Mean total goals/game | 3.57 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.079 |
| Games played | 14 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 14.29% | — | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | 28.57% |
| 1 | 7.14% | — | — | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | 28.57% |
| 2 | 7.14% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | 35.71% |
| 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 4 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 5+ | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Total | 21.43% | 28.57% | 7.14% | 21.43% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 100% |
Carcavelinhos — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 1.29 |
| Mean allowed | 2.57 |
| StdDev scored | 1.14 |
| StdDev allowed | 3.32 |
| Mean total goals/game | 3.86 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.453 |
| Games played | 14 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 1 | 7.14% | — | 21.43% | — | — | — | 28.57% |
| 2 | — | 7.14% | — | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | 28.57% |
| 3 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 4 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 5+ | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% | 14.29% |
| Total | 21.43% | 21.43% | 28.57% | 14.29% | — | 14.29% | 100% |
Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 2.07 |
| Mean allowed | 2.00 |
| StdDev scored | 1.64 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.80 |
| Mean total goals/game | 4.07 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | 0.209 |
| Games played | 14 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | 14.29% | — | — | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 28.57% |
| 2 | — | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 3 | — | 14.29% | — | — | — | — | 14.29% |
| 4 | — | 21.43% | — | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| 5+ | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | — | — | — | 21.43% |
| Total | 14.29% | 50.00% | 21.43% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
Porto — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 3.07 |
| Mean allowed | 1.57 |
| StdDev scored | 1.86 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.50 |
| Mean total goals/game | 4.64 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.153 |
| Games played | 14 |
| ↓ Scored | Allowed → | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5+ | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1 | — | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 2 | — | 7.14% | 14.29% | 7.14% | — | — | 28.57% |
| 3 | — | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 4 | 7.14% | — | — | — | — | — | 7.14% |
| 5+ | 14.29% | 14.29% | 7.14% | 7.14% | — | 7.14% | 50.00% |
| Total | 21.43% | 28.57% | 28.57% | 14.29% | — | 7.14% | 100% |
Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics
| Mean scored | 4.79 |
| Mean allowed | 1.64 |
| StdDev scored | 3.19 |
| StdDev allowed | 1.39 |
| Mean total goals/game | 6.43 |
| Correlation (scored vs allowed) | -0.244 |
| Games played | 14 |
Top Overachievers & Disappointments
Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.
Biggest Overachievers
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 23 | 14.8 | +8.22 |
| 2 | Benfica | 23 | 15.1 | +7.88 |
| 3 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 22 | 15.1 | +6.93 |
| 4 | Carcavelinhos | 11 | 11.1 | -0.08 |
| 5 | Academica de Coimbra | 10 | 12.4 | -2.41 |
Biggest Disappointments
| # | Team | Actual | Sim | vsSim |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academico do Porto | 5 | 14.2 | -9.25 |
| 2 | Barreirense | 8 | 14.2 | -6.21 |
| 3 | Os Belenenses (1st) | 10 | 15.1 | -5.08 |
| 4 | Academica de Coimbra | 10 | 12.4 | -2.41 |
| 5 | Carcavelinhos | 11 | 11.1 | -0.08 |
Top Streaks
Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.
Longest Winning Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Porto | 4 | Jan 16 – Feb 13 | 1 in 26 |
| 2 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 5 | Mar 27 – May 8 | 1 in 26 |
| 3 | Academica de Coimbra | 2 | Feb 6 – Feb 13 | 1 in 7 |
| 4 | Os Belenenses (1st) | 3 | Jan 16 – Feb 6 | 1 in 7 |
| 5 | Benfica | 2 | Jan 16 – Jan 23 | 1 in 6 |
Longest Losing Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academico do Porto | 6 | Feb 6 – Mar 13 | 1 in 340 |
| 2 | Os Belenenses (1st) | 6 | Mar 20 – May 8 | 1 in 103 |
| 3 | Academica de Coimbra | 4 | Mar 6 – Mar 27 | 1 in 18 |
| 4 | Carcavelinhos | 4 | Jan 16 – Feb 13 | 1 in 14 |
| 5 | Barreirense | 3 | Mar 20 – Apr 3 | 1 in 8 |
Longest Unbeaten Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 11 | Feb 13 – May 8 | 1 in 255 |
| 2 | Benfica | 8 | Mar 6 – May 8 | 1 in 59 |
| 3 | Porto | 4 | Jan 16 – Feb 13 | 1 in 10 |
| 4 | Academica de Coimbra | 2 | Feb 6 – Feb 13 | 1 in 4 |
| 5 | Os Belenenses (1st) | 3 | Jan 16 – Feb 6 | 1 in 4 |
Longest Winless Streaks
| # | Team | Games | Dates | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Academico do Porto | 8 | Jan 16 – Mar 13 | 1 in 233 |
| 2 | Barreirense | 6 | Feb 27 – Apr 3 | 1 in 49 |
| 3 | Os Belenenses (1st) | 6 | Mar 20 – May 8 | 1 in 26 |
| 4 | Academica de Coimbra | 4 | Mar 6 – Mar 27 | 1 in 8 |
| 5 | Carcavelinhos | 4 | Jan 16 – Feb 13 | 1 in 6 |
Home-Field Advantage Edge
The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.
Finish Position Heatmap
Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Porto | 18.00% | 16.00% | 9.00% | 14.00% | 16.00% | 10.00% | 11.00% | 6.00% |
| Benfica | 17.00% | 18.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% | 14.00% | 16.00% | 7.00% | 2.00% |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal | 24.00% | 17.00% | 18.00% | 10.00% | 10.00% | 9.00% | 7.00% | 5.00% |
| Carcavelinhos | — | 4.00% | 6.00% | 4.00% | 11.00% | 14.00% | 26.00% | 35.00% |
| Os Belenenses (1st) | 14.00% | 17.00% | 19.00% | 16.00% | 13.00% | 7.00% | 8.00% | 6.00% |
| Academica de Coimbra | 2.00% | 12.00% | 8.00% | 10.00% | 14.00% | 14.00% | 20.00% | 20.00% |
| Barreirense | 12.00% | 8.00% | 14.00% | 18.00% | 13.00% | 13.00% | 7.00% | 15.00% |
| Academico do Porto | 13.00% | 8.00% | 13.00% | 15.00% | 9.00% | 17.00% | 14.00% | 11.00% |
Points Required Per Position
The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.
Points Totals in Context
How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).
No Trend Data Yet
Next-Season Status
Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.
| Team | Same level |
|---|---|
| Academica de Coimbra | 100% |
| Academico do Porto | 100% |
| Barreirense | 100% |
| Benfica | 100% |
| Carcavelinhos | 100% |
| Os Belenenses (1st) | 100% |
| Porto | 100% |
| Sporting Clube de Portugal | 100% |
Overall Game Log
Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.
| Date | Opponent | Score | Pre Elo | Opp Elo | Win % | Tie % | Loss % | Elo Δ | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1938-01-16 | Os Belenenses (1st) | L 2-3 | 1586 | 1636 | 53.1% | 11.6% | 35.3% | -2.7 | 0 |
| 1938-01-16 | @ Academica de Coimbra | W 3-2 | 1636 | 1586 | 35.3% | 11.6% | 53.1% | +2.7 | 3 |
| 1938-01-16 | Benfica | L 0-4 | 1666 | 1645 | 61.9% | 11.4% | 26.7% | -12.4 | 0 |
| 1938-01-16 | @ Academico do Porto | W 4-0 | 1645 | 1666 | 26.7% | 11.4% | 61.9% | +12.4 | 3 |
| 1938-01-16 | Porto | L 0-1 | 1558 | 1620 | 51.4% | 11.6% | 37.0% | -2.9 | 0 |
| 1938-01-16 | @ Carcavelinhos | W 1-0 | 1620 | 1558 | 37.0% | 11.6% | 51.4% | +2.9 | 3 |
| 1938-01-16 | Barreirense | W 7-2 | 1629 | 1650 | 56.8% | 11.5% | 31.7% | +5.7 | 3 |
| 1938-01-16 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 2-7 | 1650 | 1629 | 31.7% | 11.5% | 56.8% | -5.7 | 0 |
| 1938-01-23 | Academico do Porto | D 1-1 | 1645 | 1653 | 58.4% | 11.5% | 30.1% | -0.4 | 1 |
| 1938-01-23 | @ Barreirense | D 1-1 | 1653 | 1645 | 30.1% | 11.5% | 58.4% | +0.4 | 1 |
| 1938-01-23 | Carcavelinhos | W 4-0 | 1638 | 1555 | 68.6% | 11.1% | 20.3% | +4.4 | 6 |
| 1938-01-23 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | L 0-4 | 1555 | 1638 | 20.3% | 11.1% | 68.6% | -4.4 | 0 |
| 1938-01-23 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | W 3-2 | 1658 | 1635 | 62.2% | 11.4% | 26.4% | +1.4 | 6 |
| 1938-01-23 | @ Benfica | L 2-3 | 1635 | 1658 | 26.4% | 11.4% | 62.2% | -1.4 | 3 |
| 1938-01-23 | Academica de Coimbra | W 5-1 | 1623 | 1583 | 64.1% | 11.3% | 24.6% | +4.4 | 6 |
| 1938-01-23 | @ Porto | L 1-5 | 1583 | 1623 | 24.6% | 11.3% | 64.1% | -4.4 | 0 |
| 1938-02-06 | Carcavelinhos | W 1-0 | 1579 | 1551 | 62.8% | 11.4% | 25.8% | +1.5 | 3 |
| 1938-02-06 | @ Academica de Coimbra | L 0-1 | 1551 | 1579 | 25.8% | 11.4% | 62.8% | -1.6 | 0 |
| 1938-02-06 | Academico do Porto | W 1-0 | 1643 | 1654 | 58.1% | 11.5% | 30.4% | +1.8 | 9 |
| 1938-02-06 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | L 0-1 | 1654 | 1643 | 30.4% | 11.5% | 58.1% | -1.8 | 1 |
| 1938-02-06 | Barreirense | D 0-0 | 1659 | 1644 | 61.3% | 11.4% | 27.3% | -0.5 | 7 |
| 1938-02-06 | @ Benfica | D 0-0 | 1644 | 1659 | 27.3% | 11.4% | 61.3% | +0.5 | 2 |
| 1938-02-06 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | W 2-1 | 1627 | 1633 | 58.7% | 11.5% | 29.8% | +1.7 | 9 |
| 1938-02-06 | @ Porto | L 1-2 | 1633 | 1627 | 29.8% | 11.5% | 58.7% | -1.7 | 3 |
| 1938-02-13 | Academica de Coimbra | L 1-5 | 1652 | 1580 | 67.5% | 11.1% | 21.4% | -11.2 | 1 |
| 1938-02-13 | @ Academico do Porto | W 5-1 | 1580 | 1652 | 21.4% | 11.1% | 67.5% | +11.2 | 6 |
| 1938-02-13 | Benfica | L 1-4 | 1549 | 1659 | 44.7% | 11.6% | 43.7% | -5.9 | 0 |
| 1938-02-13 | @ Carcavelinhos | W 4-1 | 1659 | 1549 | 43.7% | 11.6% | 44.7% | +5.9 | 10 |
| 1938-02-13 | Porto | L 1-4 | 1645 | 1629 | 61.4% | 11.4% | 27.2% | -7.9 | 2 |
| 1938-02-13 | @ Barreirense | W 4-1 | 1629 | 1645 | 27.2% | 11.4% | 61.4% | +7.9 | 12 |
| 1938-02-13 | Os Belenenses (1st) | W 2-1 | 1632 | 1645 | 57.9% | 11.5% | 30.6% | +1.7 | 6 |
| 1938-02-13 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 1-2 | 1645 | 1632 | 30.6% | 11.5% | 57.9% | -1.7 | 9 |
| 1938-02-20 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 0-4 | 1592 | 1633 | 54.1% | 11.6% | 34.3% | -10.9 | 6 |
| 1938-02-20 | @ Academica de Coimbra | W 4-0 | 1633 | 1592 | 34.3% | 11.6% | 54.1% | +10.9 | 9 |
| 1938-02-20 | Carcavelinhos | L 0-4 | 1641 | 1543 | 70.0% | 11.0% | 19.0% | -14.0 | 1 |
| 1938-02-20 | @ Academico do Porto | W 4-0 | 1543 | 1641 | 19.0% | 11.0% | 70.0% | +14.0 | 3 |
| 1938-02-20 | Barreirense | L 2-3 | 1643 | 1637 | 60.2% | 11.5% | 28.4% | -3.0 | 9 |
| 1938-02-20 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | W 3-2 | 1637 | 1643 | 28.4% | 11.5% | 60.2% | +3.0 | 5 |
| 1938-02-20 | Porto | W 3-1 | 1665 | 1637 | 62.8% | 11.4% | 25.9% | +2.5 | 13 |
| 1938-02-20 | @ Benfica | L 1-3 | 1637 | 1665 | 25.9% | 11.4% | 62.8% | -2.5 | 12 |
| 1938-02-27 | Porto | L 1-4 | 1627 | 1634 | 58.5% | 11.5% | 30.0% | -7.6 | 1 |
| 1938-02-27 | @ Academico do Porto | W 4-1 | 1634 | 1627 | 30.0% | 11.5% | 58.5% | +7.6 | 15 |
| 1938-02-27 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 1-3 | 1557 | 1644 | 47.9% | 11.6% | 40.5% | -4.5 | 3 |
| 1938-02-27 | @ Carcavelinhos | W 3-1 | 1644 | 1557 | 40.5% | 11.6% | 47.9% | +4.4 | 12 |
| 1938-02-27 | Academica de Coimbra | L 1-3 | 1640 | 1581 | 66.2% | 11.2% | 22.6% | -6.0 | 5 |
| 1938-02-27 | @ Barreirense | W 3-1 | 1581 | 1640 | 22.6% | 11.2% | 66.2% | +6.0 | 9 |
| 1938-02-27 | Benfica | W 2-1 | 1640 | 1667 | 56.0% | 11.5% | 32.5% | +1.8 | 12 |
| 1938-02-27 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | L 1-2 | 1667 | 1640 | 32.5% | 11.5% | 56.0% | -1.8 | 13 |
| 1938-03-06 | Benfica | L 1-2 | 1587 | 1665 | 49.1% | 11.6% | 39.3% | -2.6 | 9 |
| 1938-03-06 | @ Academica de Coimbra | W 2-1 | 1665 | 1587 | 39.3% | 11.6% | 49.1% | +2.6 | 16 |
| 1938-03-06 | Barreirense | D 2-2 | 1553 | 1634 | 48.8% | 11.6% | 39.6% | -0.1 | 4 |
| 1938-03-06 | @ Carcavelinhos | D 2-2 | 1634 | 1553 | 39.6% | 11.6% | 48.8% | +0.1 | 6 |
| 1938-03-06 | Os Belenenses (1st) | W 5-2 | 1642 | 1642 | 59.5% | 11.5% | 29.0% | +3.5 | 18 |
| 1938-03-06 | @ Porto | L 2-5 | 1642 | 1642 | 29.0% | 11.5% | 59.5% | -3.5 | 12 |
| 1938-03-06 | Academico do Porto | W 6-0 | 1649 | 1619 | 63.0% | 11.4% | 25.7% | +8.1 | 15 |
| 1938-03-06 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 0-6 | 1619 | 1649 | 25.7% | 11.4% | 63.0% | -8.1 | 1 |
| 1938-03-13 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | D 2-2 | 1634 | 1657 | 56.6% | 11.5% | 31.9% | -0.2 | 7 |
| 1938-03-13 | @ Barreirense | D 2-2 | 1657 | 1634 | 31.9% | 11.5% | 56.6% | +0.2 | 16 |
| 1938-03-13 | Academica de Coimbra | W 5-0 | 1638 | 1584 | 65.6% | 11.2% | 23.1% | +6.2 | 15 |
| 1938-03-13 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | L 0-5 | 1584 | 1638 | 23.1% | 11.2% | 65.6% | -6.2 | 9 |
| 1938-03-13 | Academico do Porto | W 3-0 | 1668 | 1611 | 66.0% | 11.2% | 22.8% | +3.8 | 19 |
| 1938-03-13 | @ Benfica | L 0-3 | 1611 | 1668 | 22.8% | 11.2% | 66.0% | -3.8 | 1 |
| 1938-03-13 | Carcavelinhos | W 3-1 | 1645 | 1552 | 69.6% | 11.0% | 19.4% | +1.9 | 21 |
| 1938-03-13 | @ Porto | L 1-3 | 1552 | 1645 | 19.4% | 11.0% | 69.6% | -1.9 | 4 |
| 1938-03-20 | Porto | L 1-4 | 1578 | 1647 | 50.4% | 11.6% | 38.0% | -6.6 | 9 |
| 1938-03-20 | @ Academica de Coimbra | W 4-1 | 1647 | 1578 | 38.0% | 11.6% | 50.4% | +6.6 | 24 |
| 1938-03-20 | Barreirense | W 4-1 | 1607 | 1634 | 56.2% | 11.5% | 32.3% | +4.4 | 4 |
| 1938-03-20 | @ Academico do Porto | L 1-4 | 1634 | 1607 | 32.3% | 11.5% | 56.2% | -4.4 | 7 |
| 1938-03-20 | Os Belenenses (1st) | W 1-0 | 1551 | 1644 | 47.0% | 11.6% | 41.4% | +2.4 | 7 |
| 1938-03-20 | @ Carcavelinhos | L 0-1 | 1644 | 1551 | 41.4% | 11.6% | 47.0% | -2.4 | 15 |
| 1938-03-20 | Benfica | D 2-2 | 1657 | 1672 | 57.6% | 11.5% | 30.8% | -0.3 | 17 |
| 1938-03-20 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | D 2-2 | 1672 | 1657 | 30.8% | 11.5% | 57.6% | +0.3 | 20 |
| 1938-03-27 | Os Belenenses (1st) | W 3-2 | 1612 | 1642 | 55.7% | 11.5% | 32.8% | +1.7 | 7 |
| 1938-03-27 | @ Academico do Porto | L 2-3 | 1642 | 1612 | 32.8% | 11.5% | 55.7% | -1.7 | 15 |
| 1938-03-27 | Academica de Coimbra | W 2-1 | 1553 | 1571 | 57.2% | 11.5% | 31.3% | +1.8 | 10 |
| 1938-03-27 | @ Carcavelinhos | L 1-2 | 1571 | 1553 | 31.3% | 11.5% | 57.2% | -1.8 | 9 |
| 1938-03-27 | Benfica | L 1-2 | 1629 | 1672 | 54.0% | 11.6% | 34.4% | -2.9 | 7 |
| 1938-03-27 | @ Barreirense | W 2-1 | 1672 | 1629 | 34.4% | 11.6% | 54.0% | +2.9 | 23 |
| 1938-03-27 | Porto | W 6-1 | 1657 | 1654 | 59.8% | 11.5% | 28.7% | +6.3 | 20 |
| 1938-03-27 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 1-6 | 1654 | 1657 | 28.7% | 11.5% | 59.8% | -6.3 | 24 |
| 1938-04-03 | Academico do Porto | W 5-0 | 1570 | 1613 | 53.9% | 11.6% | 34.6% | +9.0 | 12 |
| 1938-04-03 | @ Academica de Coimbra | L 0-5 | 1613 | 1570 | 34.6% | 11.6% | 53.9% | -9.0 | 7 |
| 1938-04-03 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 5-6 | 1640 | 1663 | 56.6% | 11.5% | 31.9% | -2.7 | 15 |
| 1938-04-03 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | W 6-5 | 1663 | 1640 | 31.9% | 11.5% | 56.6% | +2.7 | 23 |
| 1938-04-03 | Carcavelinhos | W 3-2 | 1675 | 1555 | 72.1% | 10.8% | 17.1% | +0.9 | 26 |
| 1938-04-03 | @ Benfica | L 2-3 | 1555 | 1675 | 17.1% | 10.8% | 72.1% | -0.9 | 10 |
| 1938-04-03 | Barreirense | W 3-1 | 1648 | 1626 | 62.0% | 11.4% | 26.6% | +2.6 | 27 |
| 1938-04-03 | @ Porto | L 1-3 | 1626 | 1648 | 26.6% | 11.4% | 62.0% | -2.6 | 7 |
| 1938-04-10 | Academico do Porto | W 2-0 | 1554 | 1604 | 53.0% | 11.6% | 35.5% | +3.9 | 13 |
| 1938-04-10 | @ Carcavelinhos | L 0-2 | 1604 | 1554 | 35.5% | 11.6% | 53.0% | -3.9 | 7 |
| 1938-04-10 | Os Belenenses (1st) | W 2-1 | 1624 | 1637 | 57.8% | 11.5% | 30.7% | +1.7 | 10 |
| 1938-04-10 | @ Barreirense | L 1-2 | 1637 | 1624 | 30.7% | 11.5% | 57.8% | -1.7 | 15 |
| 1938-04-10 | Benfica | D 2-2 | 1650 | 1676 | 56.2% | 11.5% | 32.2% | -0.2 | 28 |
| 1938-04-10 | @ Porto | D 2-2 | 1676 | 1650 | 32.2% | 11.5% | 56.2% | +0.2 | 27 |
| 1938-04-10 | Academica de Coimbra | W 7-1 | 1666 | 1579 | 69.0% | 11.0% | 19.9% | +5.2 | 26 |
| 1938-04-10 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 1-7 | 1579 | 1666 | 19.9% | 11.0% | 69.0% | -5.2 | 12 |
| 1938-04-17 | Os Belenenses (1st) | W 2-1 | 1676 | 1636 | 64.2% | 11.3% | 24.5% | +1.4 | 30 |
| 1938-04-17 | @ Benfica | L 1-2 | 1636 | 1676 | 24.5% | 11.3% | 64.2% | -1.4 | 15 |
| 1938-04-17 | Academico do Porto | W 7-2 | 1650 | 1601 | 65.1% | 11.3% | 23.6% | +4.4 | 31 |
| 1938-04-17 | @ Porto | L 2-7 | 1601 | 1650 | 23.6% | 11.3% | 65.1% | -4.3 | 7 |
| 1938-04-17 | Carcavelinhos | W 13-0 | 1671 | 1558 | 71.5% | 10.9% | 17.7% | +11.9 | 29 |
| 1938-04-17 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 0-13 | 1558 | 1671 | 17.7% | 10.9% | 71.5% | -11.9 | 13 |
| 1938-04-24 | Barreirense | W 1-0 | 1573 | 1625 | 52.8% | 11.6% | 35.7% | +2.1 | 15 |
| 1938-04-24 | @ Academica de Coimbra | L 0-1 | 1625 | 1573 | 35.7% | 11.6% | 52.8% | -2.1 | 10 |
| 1938-05-08 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | L 3-6 | 1596 | 1683 | 48.0% | 11.6% | 40.4% | -5.1 | 7 |
| 1938-05-08 | @ Academico do Porto | W 6-3 | 1683 | 1596 | 40.4% | 11.6% | 48.0% | +5.1 | 32 |
| 1938-05-08 | Carcavelinhos | L 1-2 | 1623 | 1546 | 68.1% | 11.1% | 20.8% | -3.6 | 10 |
| 1938-05-08 | @ Barreirense | W 2-1 | 1546 | 1623 | 20.8% | 11.1% | 68.1% | +3.6 | 16 |
| 1938-05-08 | Porto | L 0-1 | 1634 | 1654 | 57.0% | 11.5% | 31.5% | -3.2 | 15 |
| 1938-05-08 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | W 1-0 | 1654 | 1634 | 31.5% | 11.5% | 57.0% | +3.2 | 34 |
| 1938-05-08 | Academica de Coimbra | W 3-1 | 1678 | 1575 | 70.4% | 10.9% | 18.6% | +1.9 | 33 |
| 1938-05-08 | @ Benfica | L 1-3 | 1575 | 1678 | 18.6% | 10.9% | 70.4% | -1.9 | 15 |
Biggest Upsets
The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Underdog Win % | Winning Team | Losing Team | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Elo | Score | Team | Elo | Score | |||
| 1 | 1938-02-20 | 19.00% | Carcavelinhos | 1543 | 4 | @ Academico do Porto | 1641 | 0 |
| 2 | 1938-05-08 | 20.83% | Carcavelinhos | 1546 | 2 | @ Barreirense | 1623 | 1 |
| 3 | 1938-02-13 | 21.38% | Academica de Coimbra | 1580 | 5 | @ Academico do Porto | 1652 | 1 |
| 4 | 1938-02-27 | 22.60% | Academica de Coimbra | 1581 | 3 | @ Barreirense | 1640 | 1 |
| 5 | 1938-01-16 | 26.72% | Benfica | 1645 | 4 | @ Academico do Porto | 1666 | 0 |
| 6 | 1938-02-13 | 27.23% | Porto | 1629 | 4 | @ Barreirense | 1645 | 1 |
| 7 | 1938-02-20 | 28.36% | Barreirense | 1637 | 3 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | 1643 | 2 |
| 8 | 1938-02-27 | 29.97% | Porto | 1634 | 4 | @ Academico do Porto | 1627 | 1 |
| 9 | 1938-05-08 | 31.51% | Porto | 1654 | 1 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | 1634 | 0 |
| 10 | 1938-04-03 | 31.88% | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1663 | 6 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | 1640 | 5 |
| 11 | 1938-02-20 | 34.31% | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1633 | 4 | @ Academica de Coimbra | 1592 | 0 |
| 12 | 1938-03-27 | 34.44% | Benfica | 1672 | 2 | @ Barreirense | 1629 | 1 |
| 13 | 1938-01-16 | 35.33% | Os Belenenses (1st) | 1636 | 3 | @ Academica de Coimbra | 1586 | 2 |
| 14 | 1938-01-16 | 36.99% | Porto | 1620 | 1 | @ Carcavelinhos | 1558 | 0 |
| 15 | 1938-03-20 | 37.99% | Porto | 1647 | 4 | @ Academica de Coimbra | 1578 | 1 |
| 16 | 1938-03-06 | 39.29% | Benfica | 1665 | 2 | @ Academica de Coimbra | 1587 | 1 |
| 17 | 1938-05-08 | 40.42% | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1683 | 6 | @ Academico do Porto | 1596 | 3 |
| 18 | 1938-02-27 | 40.50% | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 1644 | 3 | @ Carcavelinhos | 1557 | 1 |
| 19 | 1938-02-13 | 43.70% | Benfica | 1659 | 4 | @ Carcavelinhos | 1549 | 1 |
Biggest Elo Changes
The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.
| # | Date | Elo Δ | Winning Team | Losing Team | Tie % | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Team | Score | Elo | Win % | Team | Score | Elo | Win % | ||||
| 1 | 1938-02-20 | 13.99 | Carcavelinhos | 4 | 1543 | 19.00% | @ Academico do Porto | 0 | 1641 | 70.02% | |
| 2 | 1938-01-16 | 12.40 | Benfica | 4 | 1645 | 26.72% | @ Academico do Porto | 0 | 1666 | 61.88% | |
| 3 | 1938-04-17 | 11.88 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | 13 | 1671 | 71.47% | Carcavelinhos | 0 | 1558 | 17.67% | |
| 4 | 1938-02-13 | 11.25 | Academica de Coimbra | 5 | 1580 | 21.38% | @ Academico do Porto | 1 | 1652 | 67.48% | |
| 5 | 1938-02-20 | 10.92 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 4 | 1633 | 34.31% | @ Academica de Coimbra | 0 | 1592 | 54.13% | |
| 6 | 1938-04-03 | 8.97 | @ Academica de Coimbra | 5 | 1570 | 53.87% | Academico do Porto | 0 | 1613 | 34.56% | |
| 7 | 1938-03-06 | 8.10 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 1649 | 62.96% | Academico do Porto | 0 | 1619 | 25.68% | |
| 8 | 1938-02-13 | 7.94 | Porto | 4 | 1629 | 27.23% | @ Barreirense | 1 | 1645 | 61.36% | |
| 9 | 1938-02-27 | 7.59 | Porto | 4 | 1634 | 29.97% | @ Academico do Porto | 1 | 1627 | 58.54% | |
| 10 | 1938-03-20 | 6.59 | Porto | 4 | 1647 | 37.99% | @ Academica de Coimbra | 1 | 1578 | 50.42% | |
| 11 | 1938-03-27 | 6.26 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 1657 | 59.83% | Porto | 1 | 1654 | 28.71% | |
| 12 | 1938-03-13 | 6.18 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | 5 | 1638 | 65.64% | Academica de Coimbra | 0 | 1584 | 23.12% | |
| 13 | 1938-02-27 | 6.05 | Academica de Coimbra | 3 | 1581 | 22.60% | @ Barreirense | 1 | 1640 | 66.19% | |
| 14 | 1938-02-13 | 5.92 | Benfica | 4 | 1659 | 43.70% | @ Carcavelinhos | 1 | 1549 | 44.74% | |
| 15 | 1938-01-16 | 5.74 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | 7 | 1629 | 56.82% | Barreirense | 2 | 1650 | 31.66% | |
| 16 | 1938-04-10 | 5.25 | @ Sporting Clube de Portugal | 7 | 1666 | 69.04% | Academica de Coimbra | 1 | 1579 | 19.92% | |
| 17 | 1938-05-08 | 5.06 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 6 | 1683 | 40.42% | @ Academico do Porto | 3 | 1596 | 47.99% | |
| 18 | 1938-02-27 | 4.45 | Sporting Clube de Portugal | 3 | 1644 | 40.50% | @ Carcavelinhos | 1 | 1557 | 47.92% | |
| 19 | 1938-01-23 | 4.43 | @ Porto | 5 | 1623 | 64.07% | Academica de Coimbra | 1 | 1583 | 24.62% | |
| 20 | 1938-01-23 | 4.42 | @ Os Belenenses (1st) | 4 | 1638 | 68.64% | Carcavelinhos | 0 | 1555 | 20.29% | |
| 21 | 1938-03-20 | 4.42 | @ Academico do Porto | 4 | 1607 | 56.16% | Barreirense | 1 | 1634 | 32.30% | |
| 22 | 1938-04-17 | 4.36 | @ Porto | 7 | 1650 | 65.15% | Academico do Porto | 2 | 1601 | 23.58% | |
| 23 | 1938-04-10 | 3.93 | @ Carcavelinhos | 2 | 1554 | 52.96% | Academico do Porto | 0 | 1604 | 35.47% | |
| 24 | 1938-03-13 | 3.79 | @ Benfica | 3 | 1668 | 65.96% | Academico do Porto | 0 | 1611 | 22.82% | |
| 25 | 1938-05-08 | 3.59 | Carcavelinhos | 2 | 1546 | 20.83% | @ Barreirense | 1 | 1623 | 68.07% | |