1940 Primeira Divisão Season

90 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Porto

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Porto

10.68 points above expected

34 points · 23.32 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Vitoria Setubal

8.86 points below expected

5 points · 13.86 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Porto	18	17	0	1	34	76	21	+55	23.3	+10.68
2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	18	15	2	1	32	87	23	+64	24.3	+7.70
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	18	11	3	4	25	58	21	+37	20.1	+4.87
4	Benfica	18	11	1	6	23	58	34	+24	19.6	+3.40
5	Barreirense	18	8	3	7	19	27	39	-12	15.6	+3.44
6	Academica de Coimbra	18	7	3	8	17	42	54	-12	15.9	+1.05
7	Carcavelinhos	18	4	2	12	10	26	49	-23	18.9	-8.85
8	Academico do Porto	18	3	2	13	8	24	53	-29	12.8	-4.77
9	Leixoes	18	1	5	12	7	26	70	-44	15.7	-8.66
10	Vitoria Setubal	18	1	3	14	5	7	67	-60	13.9	-8.86

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Porto	1580	34	23.32	+10.68	100.0%	16	17	21	23	26	29	32
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1578	32	24.30	+7.70	100.0%	16	19	22	24	27	29	31
Os Belenenses (1st)	1487	25	20.13	+4.87	92.0%	11	14	18	20	22	26	29
Benfica	1440	23	19.60	+3.40	85.0%	11	13	18	19	22	25	29
Barreirense	1307	19	15.56	+3.44	80.0%	8	9	13	16	18	22	25
Academica de Coimbra	1301	17	15.95	+1.05	68.0%	6	10	14	16	18	22	23
Carcavelinhos	1293	10	18.85	-8.85	1.0%	10	12	17	19	21	25	26
Leixoes	1236	7	15.66	-8.66	2.0%	5	9	13	16	18	21	23
Academico do Porto	1219	8	12.77	-4.77	16.0%	4	6	10	13	15	18	21
Vitoria Setubal	1184	5	13.86	-8.86	0.0%	6	9	11	14	16	18	26

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADC	ADP	BAR	BEN	CAR	LEI	OB(	POR	SCDP	VS
Academica de Coimbra	—	1-0-1 3.58	1-0-1 2.53	1-0-1 1.93	1-1-0 2.55	1-1-0 3.00	0-1-1 1.83	0-0-2 1.46	0-0-2 1.83	2-0-0 3.30
Academico do Porto	1-0-1 2.12	—	0-1-1 2.13	0-0-2 1.82	0-0-2 1.79	1-1-0 2.45	0-0-2 1.60	0-0-2 1.11	0-0-2 1.56	1-0-1 2.49
Barreirense	1-0-1 3.17	1-1-0 3.57	—	0-0-2 2.15	2-0-0 2.28	2-0-0 2.67	0-1-1 2.35	0-0-2 1.60	0-1-1 1.28	2-0-0 3.05
Benfica	1-0-1 3.78	2-0-0 3.88	2-0-0 3.56	—	2-0-0 3.06	1-1-0 3.30	1-0-1 2.89	0-0-2 2.04	0-0-2 2.26	2-0-0 3.65
Carcavelinhos	0-1-1 3.15	2-0-0 3.92	0-0-2 3.42	0-0-2 2.65	—	1-0-1 3.57	0-0-2 3.30	0-0-2 1.98	0-0-2 1.63	1-1-0 3.63
Leixoes	0-1-1 2.70	0-1-1 3.25	0-0-2 3.03	0-1-1 2.40	1-0-1 2.14	—	0-0-2 1.99	0-0-2 1.98	0-0-2 1.60	0-2-0 3.07
Os Belenenses (1st)	1-1-0 3.87	2-0-0 4.12	1-1-0 3.35	1-0-1 2.81	2-0-0 2.40	2-0-0 3.71	—	0-0-2 2.16	0-1-1 2.31	2-0-0 4.20
Porto	2-0-0 4.25	2-0-0 4.60	2-0-0 4.11	2-0-0 3.67	2-0-0 3.73	2-0-0 3.73	2-0-0 3.54	—	1-0-1 2.97	2-0-0 3.74
Sporting Clube de Portugal	2-0-0 3.88	2-0-0 4.16	1-1-0 4.44	2-0-0 3.44	2-0-0 4.08	2-0-0 4.10	1-1-0 3.39	1-0-1 2.73	—	2-0-0 4.53
Vitoria Setubal	0-0-2 2.40	1-0-1 3.21	0-0-2 2.66	0-0-2 2.06	0-1-1 2.08	0-2-0 2.63	0-0-2 1.52	0-0-2 1.97	0-0-2 1.19	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	4.44%	6.11%	3.33%	1.11%	1.67%	5.00%	21.67%
1	6.11%	3.33%	1.11%	3.89%	2.22%	6.11%	22.78%
2	3.33%	1.11%	3.33%	4.44%	1.67%	5.00%	18.89%
3	1.11%	3.89%	4.44%	2.22%	0.56%	0.56%	12.78%
4	1.67%	2.22%	1.67%	0.56%	—	0.56%	6.67%
5+	5.00%	6.11%	5.00%	0.56%	0.56%	—	17.22%
Total	21.67%	22.78%	18.89%	12.78%	6.67%	17.22%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.39
Mean allowed	2.39
StdDev scored	2.40
StdDev allowed	2.40
Mean total goals/game	4.79
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.227
Sample size (games)	90

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	22.22%
1	—	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	11.11%
2	—	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	11.11%
4	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	22.22%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	27.78%	5.56%	11.11%	27.78%	100%

Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.33
Mean allowed	3.00
StdDev scored	1.85
StdDev allowed	2.28
Mean total goals/game	5.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.462
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	11.11%	—	—	—	33.33%
1	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	16.67%	33.33%
2	—	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	11.11%	27.78%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	27.78%	16.67%	16.67%	—	27.78%	100%

Academico do Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.33
Mean allowed	2.94
StdDev scored	1.85
StdDev allowed	2.78
Mean total goals/game	4.28
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.142
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	—	16.67%	44.44%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	33.33%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	—	27.78%	100%

Barreirense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	2.17
StdDev scored	1.15
StdDev allowed	2.38
Mean total goals/game	3.67
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.032
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
1	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	—	—	22.22%
2	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	11.11%
3	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	22.22%
4	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
5+	—	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	22.22%
Total	16.67%	27.78%	22.22%	22.22%	5.56%	5.56%	100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.22
Mean allowed	1.89
StdDev scored	2.29
StdDev allowed	1.41
Mean total goals/game	5.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.119
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	11.11%	5.56%	33.33%
1	—	—	—	5.56%	5.56%	5.56%	16.67%
2	5.56%	—	5.56%	16.67%	—	5.56%	33.33%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%
Total	11.11%	16.67%	16.67%	22.22%	16.67%	16.67%	100%

Carcavelinhos — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.44
Mean allowed	2.72
StdDev scored	1.38
StdDev allowed	1.74
Mean total goals/game	4.17
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.190
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	5.56%	16.67%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	11.11%	44.44%
2	—	—	—	—	—	22.22%	22.22%
3	—	—	—	11.11%	—	—	11.11%
4	—	5.56%	—	—	—	—	5.56%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	22.22%	5.56%	38.89%	100%

Leixoes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.44
Mean allowed	3.89
StdDev scored	1.10
StdDev allowed	2.85
Mean total goals/game	5.33
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.002
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	11.11%	—	—	—	5.56%	—	16.67%
2	5.56%	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	27.78%
3	—	5.56%	5.56%	—	—	—	11.11%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	22.22%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	33.33%
Total	44.44%	22.22%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	—	100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.22
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	2.67
StdDev allowed	1.38
Mean total goals/game	4.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.345
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
1	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
3	—	—	22.22%	—	5.56%	—	27.78%
4	5.56%	—	11.11%	—	—	—	16.67%
5+	16.67%	16.67%	5.56%	—	—	—	38.89%
Total	38.89%	16.67%	38.89%	—	5.56%	—	100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.22
Mean allowed	1.17
StdDev scored	2.24
StdDev allowed	1.15
Mean total goals/game	5.39
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.244
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.11%	—	—	—	—	—	11.11%
1	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
2	—	—	—	—	5.56%	—	5.56%
3	5.56%	11.11%	—	—	—	—	16.67%
4	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	—	—	16.67%
5+	5.56%	11.11%	22.22%	5.56%	—	—	44.44%
Total	33.33%	27.78%	22.22%	11.11%	5.56%	—	100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	4.83
Mean allowed	1.28
StdDev scored	3.47
StdDev allowed	1.23
Mean total goals/game	6.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.191
Games played	18

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.56%	16.67%	5.56%	11.11%	5.56%	22.22%	66.67%
1	—	11.11%	5.56%	5.56%	—	5.56%	27.78%
2	5.56%	—	—	—	—	—	5.56%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.11%	27.78%	11.11%	16.67%	5.56%	27.78%	100%

Vitoria Setubal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.39
Mean allowed	3.72
StdDev scored	0.61
StdDev allowed	3.77
Mean total goals/game	4.11
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.258
Games played	18

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Porto	34	23.3	+10.68
2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	32	24.3	+7.70
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	25	20.1	+4.87
4	Barreirense	19	15.6	+3.44
5	Benfica	23	19.6	+3.40

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Vitoria Setubal	5	13.9	-8.86
2	Carcavelinhos	10	18.9	-8.85
3	Leixoes	7	15.7	-8.66
4	Academico do Porto	8	12.8	-4.77
5	Academica de Coimbra	17	15.9	+1.05

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Porto	13	Jan 14 – Apr 14	1 in 1,463
2	Benfica	4	Feb 6 – Feb 25	1 in 28
3	Barreirense	3	Feb 4 – Feb 18	1 in 18
4	Sporting Clube de Portugal	6	Feb 25 – Mar 31	1 in 14
5	Academico do Porto	2	May 12 – May 19	1 in 12

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vitoria Setubal	6	Jan 14 – Feb 25	1 in 177
2	Academico do Porto	7	Mar 17 – Apr 28	1 in 26
3	Leixoes	7	Mar 17 – Apr 28	1 in 19
4	Academica de Coimbra	4	Jan 14 – Feb 18	1 in 10
5	Carcavelinhos	4	Apr 28 – May 19	1 in 8

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Porto	13	Jan 14 – Apr 14	1 in 70
2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	13	Feb 25 – May 19	1 in 29
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	8	Mar 17 – May 5	1 in 26
4	Benfica	6	Jan 14 – Feb 25	1 in 23
5	Academico do Porto	3	May 5 – May 19	1 in 17

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Leixoes	17	Jan 14 – May 12	1 in 3,943
2	Vitoria Setubal	12	Jan 14 – Apr 7	1 in 217
3	Carcavelinhos	5	Mar 24 – Apr 14	1 in 72
4	Academico do Porto	12	Feb 18 – May 5	1 in 44
5	Barreirense	5	Apr 21 – May 19	1 in 9

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10
Porto	32.00%	30.00%	15.00%	8.00%	11.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	49.00%	24.00%	17.00%	6.00%	2.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	—	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	10.00%	15.00%	21.00%	19.00%	11.00%	11.00%	6.00%	2.00%	4.00%	1.00%
Benfica	6.00%	12.00%	21.00%	13.00%	19.00%	12.00%	7.00%	7.00%	2.00%	1.00%
Barreirense	2.00%	1.00%	6.00%	11.00%	11.00%	9.00%	14.00%	19.00%	14.00%	13.00%
Academica de Coimbra	—	2.00%	5.00%	9.00%	10.00%	18.00%	21.00%	14.00%	12.00%	9.00%
Carcavelinhos	—	14.00%	10.00%	21.00%	17.00%	15.00%	7.00%	7.00%	5.00%	4.00%
Academico do Porto	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	6.00%	8.00%	13.00%	14.00%	25.00%	32.00%
Leixoes	—	2.00%	2.00%	10.00%	11.00%	14.00%	16.00%	18.00%	13.00%	14.00%
Vitoria Setubal	1.00%	—	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	10.00%	14.00%	18.00%	25.00%	26.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level
Academica de Coimbra	100%
Academico do Porto	100%
Barreirense	100%
Benfica	100%
Carcavelinhos	100%
Leixoes	100%
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%
Porto	100%
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%
Vitoria Setubal	100%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1940-01-14	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-5	1293	1396	41.0%	15.0%	43.9%	-15.9	0
1940-01-14	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 5-2	1396	1293	43.9%	15.0%	41.0%	+15.9	3
1940-01-14	Carcavelinhos	W 1-0	1339	1443	40.9%	15.0%	44.0%	+8.4	3
1940-01-14	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-1	1443	1339	44.0%	15.0%	40.9%	-8.4	0
1940-01-14	Academico do Porto	W 1-0	1362	1274	64.9%	14.7%	20.3%	+4.2	3
1940-01-14	@ Benfica	L 0-1	1274	1362	20.3%	14.7%	64.9%	-4.2	0
1940-01-14	Barreirense	L 0-1	1398	1316	64.2%	14.8%	21.0%	-12.0	0
1940-01-14	@ Leixoes	W 1-0	1316	1398	21.0%	14.8%	64.2%	+12.0	3
1940-01-14	Vitoria Setubal	W 11-0	1377	1427	48.6%	15.1%	36.4%	+66.9	3
1940-01-14	@ Porto	L 0-11	1427	1377	36.4%	15.1%	48.6%	-66.9	0
1940-01-21	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1270	1412	35.7%	15.0%	49.3%	-7.0	0
1940-01-21	@ Academico do Porto	W 1-0	1412	1270	49.3%	15.0%	35.7%	+7.0	6
1940-01-21	Barreirense	W 6-0	1347	1328	57.4%	15.0%	27.6%	+29.4	6
1940-01-21	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-6	1328	1347	27.6%	15.0%	57.4%	-29.4	3
1940-01-21	Porto	L 2-5	1386	1444	47.5%	15.1%	37.4%	-18.0	0
1940-01-21	@ Leixoes	W 5-2	1444	1386	37.4%	15.1%	47.5%	+18.0	6
1940-01-21	Carcavelinhos	L 0-2	1360	1435	45.1%	15.1%	39.8%	-16.2	0
1940-01-21	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 2-0	1435	1360	39.8%	15.1%	45.1%	+16.2	3
1940-02-04	Benfica	D 3-3	1368	1366	55.3%	15.0%	29.7%	-0.7	1
1940-02-04	@ Leixoes	D 3-3	1366	1368	29.7%	15.0%	55.3%	+0.7	4
1940-02-04	Academico do Porto	W 6-1	1462	1263	73.9%	14.1%	11.9%	+9.4	9
1940-02-04	@ Porto	L 1-6	1263	1462	11.9%	14.1%	73.9%	-9.4	0
1940-02-04	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 4-1	1419	1377	60.2%	14.9%	24.9%	+11.8	9
1940-02-04	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1377	1419	24.9%	14.9%	60.2%	-11.8	6
1940-02-04	Barreirense	L 0-1	1344	1299	60.4%	14.9%	24.7%	-11.3	0
1940-02-04	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1299	1344	24.7%	14.9%	60.4%	+11.3	6
1940-02-06	Academica de Coimbra	W 4-1	1367	1277	65.2%	14.7%	20.1%	+9.7	7
1940-02-06	@ Benfica	L 1-4	1277	1367	20.1%	14.7%	65.2%	-9.7	0
1940-02-11	Porto	L 0-2	1267	1471	28.0%	14.8%	57.3%	-10.7	0
1940-02-11	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-0	1471	1267	57.3%	14.8%	28.0%	+10.7	12
1940-02-11	Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1254	1332	44.6%	15.1%	40.4%	+7.8	3
1940-02-11	@ Academico do Porto	L 0-1	1332	1254	40.4%	15.1%	44.6%	-7.8	0
1940-02-11	Carcavelinhos	W 1-0	1310	1451	35.9%	15.0%	49.1%	+9.3	9
1940-02-11	@ Barreirense	L 0-1	1451	1310	49.1%	15.0%	35.9%	-9.3	3
1940-02-11	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 4-2	1377	1365	56.6%	15.0%	28.4%	+8.4	10
1940-02-11	@ Benfica	L 2-4	1365	1377	28.4%	15.0%	56.6%	-8.4	6
1940-02-11	Leixoes	W 8-1	1431	1367	62.5%	14.8%	22.6%	+23.4	12
1940-02-11	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-8	1367	1431	22.6%	14.8%	62.5%	-23.4	1
1940-02-18	Academico do Porto	W 3-2	1442	1261	72.7%	14.2%	13.1%	+2.5	6
1940-02-18	@ Carcavelinhos	L 2-3	1261	1442	13.1%	14.2%	72.7%	-2.5	3
1940-02-18	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-0	1320	1256	62.4%	14.8%	22.8%	+8.9	12
1940-02-18	@ Barreirense	L 0-2	1256	1320	22.8%	14.8%	62.4%	-8.9	0
1940-02-18	Leixoes	W 9-0	1356	1343	56.7%	15.0%	28.3%	+44.2	9
1940-02-18	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-9	1343	1356	28.3%	15.0%	56.7%	-44.2	1
1940-02-18	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 4-2	1482	1455	58.4%	14.9%	26.7%	+7.9	15
1940-02-18	@ Porto	L 2-4	1455	1482	26.7%	14.9%	58.4%	-7.9	12
1940-02-18	Benfica	L 0-3	1325	1385	47.1%	15.1%	37.8%	-24.5	0
1940-02-18	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1385	1325	37.8%	15.1%	47.1%	+24.5	13
1940-02-25	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-3	1259	1401	35.8%	15.0%	49.2%	-6.3	3
1940-02-25	@ Academico do Porto	W 3-2	1401	1259	49.2%	15.0%	35.8%	+6.3	12
1940-02-25	Benfica	L 1-3	1444	1410	59.3%	14.9%	25.8%	-18.1	6
1940-02-25	@ Carcavelinhos	W 3-1	1410	1444	25.8%	14.9%	59.3%	+18.1	16
1940-02-25	Porto	L 2-3	1328	1490	33.2%	14.9%	51.9%	-5.9	12
1940-02-25	@ Barreirense	W 3-2	1490	1328	51.9%	14.9%	33.2%	+5.9	18
1940-02-25	Academica de Coimbra	D 3-3	1299	1247	61.2%	14.9%	23.9%	-1.0	2
1940-02-25	@ Leixoes	D 3-3	1247	1299	23.9%	14.9%	61.2%	+1.0	1
1940-02-25	Vitoria Setubal	W 12-0	1447	1300	70.1%	14.4%	15.4%	+33.3	15
1940-02-25	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-12	1300	1447	15.4%	14.4%	70.1%	-33.3	0
1940-03-03	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 2-2	1248	1407	33.6%	14.9%	51.5%	+0.6	2
1940-03-03	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1407	1248	51.5%	14.9%	33.6%	-0.6	13
1940-03-03	Barreirense	L 0-1	1253	1322	45.9%	15.1%	39.1%	-8.7	3
1940-03-03	@ Academico do Porto	W 1-0	1322	1253	39.1%	15.1%	45.9%	+8.7	15
1940-03-03	Porto	L 2-3	1426	1495	45.9%	15.1%	39.0%	-7.8	6
1940-03-03	@ Carcavelinhos	W 3-2	1495	1426	39.0%	15.1%	45.9%	+7.8	21
1940-03-03	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1428	1480	48.3%	15.1%	36.6%	-14.9	16
1940-03-03	@ Benfica	W 3-1	1480	1428	36.6%	15.1%	48.3%	+14.9	18
1940-03-03	Leixoes	D 1-1	1267	1298	51.1%	15.0%	33.9%	-0.8	1
1940-03-03	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 1-1	1298	1267	33.9%	15.0%	51.1%	+0.8	3
1940-03-10	Vitoria Setubal	W 5-0	1249	1266	53.0%	15.0%	32.0%	+28.2	5
1940-03-10	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-5	1266	1249	32.0%	15.0%	53.0%	-28.2	1
1940-03-10	Leixoes	D 0-0	1244	1299	47.9%	15.1%	37.0%	-0.5	4
1940-03-10	@ Academico do Porto	D 0-0	1299	1244	37.0%	15.1%	47.9%	+0.5	4
1940-03-10	Benfica	L 0-1	1331	1413	44.2%	15.0%	40.8%	-8.5	15
1940-03-10	@ Barreirense	W 1-0	1413	1331	40.8%	15.0%	44.2%	+8.5	19
1940-03-10	Porto	L 0-1	1406	1503	42.0%	15.0%	43.0%	-8.1	13
1940-03-10	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 1-0	1503	1406	43.0%	15.0%	42.0%	+8.1	24
1940-03-10	Carcavelinhos	W 4-0	1495	1418	63.8%	14.8%	21.4%	+16.0	21
1940-03-10	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-4	1418	1495	21.4%	14.8%	63.8%	-16.0	6
1940-03-17	Academico do Porto	W 5-2	1277	1243	59.2%	14.9%	25.9%	+10.6	8
1940-03-17	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 2-5	1243	1277	25.9%	14.9%	59.2%	-10.6	4
1940-03-17	Leixoes	W 5-2	1402	1299	66.4%	14.7%	19.0%	+8.0	9
1940-03-17	@ Carcavelinhos	L 2-5	1299	1402	19.0%	14.7%	66.4%	-8.0	4
1940-03-17	Benfica	W 4-2	1511	1421	65.1%	14.7%	20.2%	+6.2	27
1940-03-17	@ Porto	L 2-4	1421	1511	20.2%	14.7%	65.1%	-6.2	19
1940-03-17	Barreirense	W 7-3	1511	1323	73.2%	14.2%	12.6%	+6.2	24
1940-03-17	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-7	1323	1511	12.6%	14.2%	73.2%	-6.2	15
1940-03-17	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-1	1238	1398	33.3%	14.9%	51.8%	-6.6	1
1940-03-17	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1398	1238	51.8%	14.9%	33.3%	+6.6	16
1940-03-24	Benfica	L 1-5	1233	1415	30.5%	14.9%	54.6%	-18.3	4
1940-03-24	@ Academico do Porto	W 5-1	1415	1233	54.6%	14.9%	30.5%	+18.3	22
1940-03-24	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-5	1410	1405	55.8%	15.0%	29.2%	-31.2	9
1940-03-24	@ Carcavelinhos	W 5-1	1405	1410	29.2%	15.0%	55.8%	+31.1	19
1940-03-24	Leixoes	W 4-1	1317	1291	58.2%	14.9%	26.9%	+12.7	18
1940-03-24	@ Barreirense	L 1-4	1291	1317	26.9%	14.9%	58.2%	-12.7	4
1940-03-24	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-1	1517	1288	75.9%	13.9%	10.2%	+8.1	27
1940-03-24	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-6	1288	1517	10.2%	13.9%	75.9%	-8.1	8
1940-03-24	Porto	L 0-4	1231	1518	19.4%	14.4%	66.2%	-14.5	1
1940-03-24	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 4-0	1518	1231	66.2%	14.4%	19.4%	+14.5	30
1940-03-31	Benfica	W 5-4	1280	1434	34.2%	14.9%	50.9%	+8.2	11
1940-03-31	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 4-5	1434	1280	50.9%	14.9%	34.2%	-8.2	22
1940-03-31	Vitoria Setubal	D 0-0	1379	1217	71.4%	14.3%	14.3%	-3.0	10
1940-03-31	@ Carcavelinhos	D 0-0	1217	1379	14.3%	14.3%	71.4%	+3.0	2
1940-03-31	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 2-2	1329	1436	40.6%	15.0%	44.4%	+0.1	19
1940-03-31	@ Barreirense	D 2-2	1436	1329	44.4%	15.0%	40.6%	-0.1	20
1940-03-31	Leixoes	W 5-1	1532	1279	77.2%	13.7%	9.1%	+5.8	33
1940-03-31	@ Porto	L 1-5	1279	1532	9.1%	13.7%	77.2%	-5.8	4
1940-03-31	Academico do Porto	W 11-2	1525	1214	80.0%	13.2%	6.8%	+7.5	30
1940-03-31	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-11	1214	1525	6.8%	13.2%	80.0%	-7.5	4
1940-04-03	Academica de Coimbra	L 0-4	1376	1288	65.0%	14.7%	20.3%	-43.3	10
1940-04-03	@ Carcavelinhos	W 4-0	1288	1376	20.3%	14.7%	65.0%	+43.3	14
1940-04-07	Carcavelinhos	D 2-2	1331	1333	54.9%	15.0%	30.1%	-0.8	15
1940-04-07	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1333	1331	30.1%	15.0%	54.9%	+0.8	11
1940-04-07	Porto	L 0-2	1207	1538	15.8%	14.1%	70.2%	-6.3	4
1940-04-07	@ Academico do Porto	W 2-0	1538	1207	70.2%	14.1%	15.8%	+6.3	36
1940-04-07	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1329	1220	67.0%	14.6%	18.4%	+6.3	22
1940-04-07	@ Barreirense	L 1-3	1220	1329	18.4%	14.6%	67.0%	-6.3	2
1940-04-07	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1436	1533	42.0%	15.0%	42.9%	+0.0	21
1940-04-07	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 0-0	1533	1436	42.9%	15.0%	42.0%	-0.0	31
1940-04-07	Leixoes	W 7-2	1425	1273	70.6%	14.4%	15.0%	+9.8	25
1940-04-07	@ Benfica	L 2-7	1273	1425	15.0%	14.4%	70.6%	-9.8	4
1940-04-14	Barreirense	L 2-3	1334	1336	54.9%	15.0%	30.1%	-9.2	11
1940-04-14	@ Carcavelinhos	W 3-2	1336	1334	30.1%	15.0%	54.9%	+9.2	25
1940-04-14	Benfica	W 2-0	1436	1435	55.3%	15.0%	29.7%	+11.3	24
1940-04-14	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-2	1435	1436	29.7%	15.0%	55.3%	-11.3	25
1940-04-14	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-9	1263	1533	21.0%	14.5%	64.5%	-17.9	4
1940-04-14	@ Leixoes	W 9-2	1533	1263	64.5%	14.5%	21.0%	+17.9	34
1940-04-14	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-0	1544	1331	74.9%	14.0%	11.1%	+12.5	39
1940-04-14	@ Porto	L 0-6	1331	1544	11.1%	14.0%	74.9%	-12.5	15
1940-04-14	Academico do Porto	W 2-0	1213	1201	56.7%	15.0%	28.3%	+10.8	5
1940-04-14	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1201	1213	28.3%	15.0%	56.7%	-10.8	4
1940-04-21	Barreirense	W 5-1	1318	1345	51.7%	15.0%	33.2%	+19.7	18
1940-04-21	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-5	1345	1318	33.2%	15.0%	51.7%	-19.7	25
1940-04-21	Carcavelinhos	L 1-3	1190	1325	36.7%	15.0%	48.3%	-11.8	4
1940-04-21	@ Academico do Porto	W 3-1	1325	1190	48.3%	15.0%	36.7%	+11.8	14
1940-04-21	Vitoria Setubal	W 9-1	1424	1224	74.0%	14.1%	11.9%	+14.4	28
1940-04-21	@ Benfica	L 1-9	1224	1424	11.9%	14.1%	74.0%	-14.4	5
1940-04-21	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1245	1447	28.2%	14.8%	57.0%	-9.3	4
1940-04-21	@ Leixoes	W 3-1	1447	1245	57.0%	14.8%	28.2%	+9.3	27
1940-04-21	Porto	W 4-3	1550	1557	54.4%	15.0%	30.6%	+5.4	37
1940-04-21	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-4	1557	1550	30.6%	15.0%	54.4%	-5.4	39
1940-04-28	Leixoes	W 3-1	1338	1236	66.2%	14.7%	19.1%	+6.5	21
1940-04-28	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-3	1236	1338	19.1%	14.7%	66.2%	-6.5	4
1940-04-28	Academico do Porto	W 6-1	1457	1178	78.5%	13.5%	8.0%	+6.3	30
1940-04-28	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-6	1178	1457	8.0%	13.5%	78.5%	-6.3	4
1940-04-28	Carcavelinhos	W 3-2	1438	1336	66.2%	14.7%	19.1%	+3.6	31
1940-04-28	@ Benfica	L 2-3	1336	1438	19.1%	14.7%	66.2%	-3.6	14
1940-04-28	Barreirense	W 5-1	1551	1325	75.7%	13.9%	10.4%	+6.7	42
1940-04-28	@ Porto	L 1-5	1325	1551	10.4%	13.9%	75.7%	-6.7	25
1940-04-28	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1210	1556	14.7%	14.0%	71.4%	-8.5	5
1940-04-28	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1556	1210	71.4%	14.0%	14.7%	+8.5	40
1940-05-05	Academico do Porto	D 1-1	1318	1172	70.1%	14.4%	15.4%	-2.5	26
1940-05-05	@ Barreirense	D 1-1	1172	1318	15.4%	14.4%	70.1%	+2.5	5
1940-05-05	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-0	1463	1344	67.8%	14.6%	17.6%	+16.4	33
1940-05-05	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1344	1463	17.6%	14.6%	67.8%	-16.4	21
1940-05-05	Vitoria Setubal	D 1-1	1229	1201	58.5%	14.9%	26.5%	-1.4	5
1940-05-05	@ Leixoes	D 1-1	1201	1229	26.5%	14.9%	58.5%	+1.4	6
1940-05-05	Carcavelinhos	W 6-0	1558	1333	75.6%	13.9%	10.5%	+11.8	45
1940-05-05	@ Porto	L 0-6	1333	1558	10.5%	13.9%	75.6%	-11.8	14
1940-05-05	Benfica	W 3-1	1564	1442	68.1%	14.6%	17.3%	+6.0	43
1940-05-05	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1442	1564	17.3%	14.6%	68.1%	-6.0	31
1940-05-12	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-5	1321	1570	23.0%	14.6%	62.4%	-9.5	14
1940-05-12	@ Carcavelinhos	W 5-2	1570	1321	62.4%	14.6%	23.0%	+9.5	46
1940-05-12	Academico do Porto	L 1-2	1228	1174	61.4%	14.9%	23.7%	-10.8	5
1940-05-12	@ Leixoes	W 2-1	1174	1228	23.7%	14.9%	61.4%	+10.8	8
1940-05-12	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-2	1570	1479	65.2%	14.7%	20.1%	+3.8	48
1940-05-12	@ Porto	L 2-3	1479	1570	20.1%	14.7%	65.2%	-3.8	33
1940-05-12	Academica de Coimbra	L 1-2	1203	1328	38.0%	15.0%	47.0%	-7.0	6
1940-05-12	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1328	1203	47.0%	15.0%	38.0%	+7.0	24
1940-05-15	Barreirense	W 5-1	1436	1316	67.9%	14.6%	17.5%	+11.0	34
1940-05-15	@ Benfica	L 1-5	1316	1436	17.5%	14.6%	67.9%	-11.0	26
1940-05-19	Academica de Coimbra	W 8-2	1185	1335	34.7%	14.9%	50.3%	+33.9	11
1940-05-19	@ Academico do Porto	L 2-8	1335	1185	50.3%	14.9%	34.7%	-33.9	24
1940-05-19	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1305	1580	20.5%	14.4%	65.1%	+2.3	27
1940-05-19	@ Barreirense	D 0-0	1580	1305	65.1%	14.4%	20.5%	-2.3	47
1940-05-19	Vitoria Setubal	W 8-0	1476	1196	78.6%	13.5%	7.9%	+11.8	36
1940-05-19	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-8	1196	1476	7.9%	13.5%	78.6%	-11.7	6
1940-05-19	Porto	L 2-3	1447	1574	37.8%	15.0%	47.2%	-6.6	34
1940-05-19	@ Benfica	W 3-2	1574	1447	47.2%	15.0%	37.8%	+6.6	51
1940-05-19	Carcavelinhos	W 4-1	1217	1312	42.4%	15.0%	42.6%	+18.9	8
1940-05-19	@ Leixoes	L 1-4	1312	1217	42.6%	15.0%	42.4%	-18.9	14

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1940-04-03	20.31%	Academica de Coimbra	1288	4	@ Carcavelinhos	1376	0
2	1940-01-14	20.98%	Barreirense	1316	1	@ Leixoes	1398	0
3	1940-05-12	23.74%	Academico do Porto	1174	2	@ Leixoes	1228	1
4	1940-02-04	24.70%	Barreirense	1299	1	@ Vitoria Setubal	1344	0
5	1940-02-25	25.82%	Benfica	1410	3	@ Carcavelinhos	1444	1
6	1940-03-24	29.18%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1405	5	@ Carcavelinhos	1410	1
7	1940-04-14	30.08%	Barreirense	1336	3	@ Carcavelinhos	1334	2
8	1940-03-31	34.19%	@ Academica de Coimbra	1280	5	Benfica	1434	4
9	1940-05-19	34.71%	@ Academico do Porto	1185	8	Academica de Coimbra	1335	2
10	1940-02-11	35.89%	@ Barreirense	1310	1	Carcavelinhos	1451	0
11	1940-03-03	36.63%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1480	3	@ Benfica	1428	1
12	1940-01-21	37.44%	Porto	1444	5	@ Leixoes	1386	2
13	1940-02-18	37.81%	Benfica	1385	3	@ Vitoria Setubal	1325	0
14	1940-03-03	39.00%	Porto	1495	3	@ Carcavelinhos	1426	2
15	1940-03-03	39.09%	Barreirense	1322	1	@ Academico do Porto	1253	0
16	1940-01-21	39.81%	Carcavelinhos	1435	2	@ Vitoria Setubal	1360	0
17	1940-03-10	40.77%	Benfica	1413	1	@ Barreirense	1331	0
18	1940-01-14	40.93%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1339	1	Carcavelinhos	1443	0
19	1940-05-19	42.38%	@ Leixoes	1217	4	Carcavelinhos	1312	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1940-01-14	66.92	@ Porto	11	1377	48.58%	Vitoria Setubal	0	1427	36.37%
2	1940-02-18	44.25	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	9	1356	56.73%	Leixoes	0	1343	28.29%
3	1940-04-03	43.30	Academica de Coimbra	4	1288	20.31%	@ Carcavelinhos	0	1376	64.95%
4	1940-05-19	33.93	@ Academico do Porto	8	1185	34.71%	Academica de Coimbra	2	1335	50.34%
5	1940-02-25	33.35	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	12	1447	70.13%	Vitoria Setubal	0	1300	15.42%
6	1940-03-24	31.15	Os Belenenses (1st)	5	1405	29.18%	@ Carcavelinhos	1	1410	55.82%
7	1940-01-21	29.41	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	6	1347	57.43%	Barreirense	0	1328	27.60%
8	1940-03-10	28.22	@ Academica de Coimbra	5	1249	53.00%	Vitoria Setubal	0	1266	31.97%
9	1940-02-18	24.50	Benfica	3	1385	37.81%	@ Vitoria Setubal	0	1325	47.13%
10	1940-02-11	23.42	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	8	1431	62.53%	Leixoes	1	1367	22.64%
11	1940-04-21	19.74	@ Academica de Coimbra	5	1318	51.71%	Barreirense	1	1345	33.24%
12	1940-05-19	18.92	@ Leixoes	4	1217	42.38%	Carcavelinhos	1	1312	42.58%
13	1940-03-24	18.27	Benfica	5	1415	54.62%	@ Academico do Porto	1	1233	30.52%
14	1940-02-25	18.07	Benfica	3	1410	25.82%	@ Carcavelinhos	1	1444	59.26%
15	1940-01-21	18.02	Porto	5	1444	37.44%	@ Leixoes	2	1386	47.50%
16	1940-04-14	17.87	Sporting Clube de Portugal	9	1533	64.53%	@ Leixoes	2	1263	21.01%
17	1940-05-05	16.42	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	5	1463	67.77%	Academica de Coimbra	0	1344	17.63%
18	1940-01-21	16.25	Carcavelinhos	2	1435	39.81%	@ Vitoria Setubal	0	1360	45.14%
19	1940-03-10	15.98	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	1495	63.78%	Carcavelinhos	0	1418	21.43%
20	1940-01-14	15.87	Sporting Clube de Portugal	5	1396	43.94%	@ Academica de Coimbra	2	1293	41.03%
21	1940-03-03	14.94	Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	1480	36.63%	@ Benfica	1	1428	48.31%
22	1940-03-24	14.51	Porto	4	1518	66.20%	@ Vitoria Setubal	0	1231	19.44%
23	1940-04-21	14.43	@ Benfica	9	1424	74.00%	Vitoria Setubal	1	1224	11.89%
24	1940-03-24	12.66	@ Barreirense	4	1317	58.17%	Leixoes	1	1291	26.88%
25	1940-04-14	12.48	@ Porto	6	1544	74.91%	Academica de Coimbra	0	1331	11.08%