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1940 Primeira Divisão Season

90 games

Final

Champion

Porto

34 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Porto

4.35 points above expected

34 points · 29.65 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Carcavelinhos

5.79 points below expected

10 points · 15.79 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Porto 18 17 0 1 34 76 21 +55 29.65 +4.35
2 Sporting Clube de Portugal 18 15 2 1 32 87 23 +64 28.58 +3.42
3 Os Belenenses (1st) 18 11 3 4 25 58 21 +37 22.74 +2.26
4 Benfica 18 11 1 6 23 58 34 +24 23.84 -0.84
5 Barreirense 18 8 3 7 19 27 39 -12 15.51 +3.49
6 Academica de Coimbra 18 7 3 8 17 42 54 -12 16.92 +0.08
7 Carcavelinhos 18 4 2 12 10 26 49 -23 15.79 -5.79
8 Academico do Porto 18 3 2 13 8 24 53 -29 9.09 -1.09
9 Leixoes 18 1 5 12 7 26 70 -44 9.51 -2.51
10 Vitoria Setubal 18 1 3 14 5 7 67 -60 8.37 -3.37

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Porto 1881 34 29.65 +4.35 97.9% 18 25 28 30 32 34 36
Sporting Clube de Portugal 1832 32 28.58 +3.42 93.9% 18 24 27 29 30 33 36
Os Belenenses (1st) 1729 25 22.74 +2.26 80.9% 10 18 21 23 25 28 33
Benfica 1518 23 23.84 -0.84 44.8% 11 19 22 24 26 29 33
Barreirense 1253 19 15.51 +3.49 89.8% 1 10 13 15 18 21 28
Academico do Porto 1253 8 9.09 -1.09 42.4% 0 5 7 9 11 14 22
Academica de Coimbra 1145 17 16.92 +0.08 58.0% 7 12 15 17 19 22 28
Leixoes 1055 7 9.51 -2.51 25.0% 1 5 8 9 11 14 21
Vitoria Setubal 987 5 8.37 -3.37 15.9% 0 4 6 8 10 13 21
Carcavelinhos 972 10 15.79 -5.79 4.5% 6 11 14 16 18 21 29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team ADC ADP BAR BEN CAR LEI OB( POR SCDP VS
Academica de Coimbra —
1-0-1
4.78
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
1.03
1-1-0
4.18
1-1-0
4.11
0-1-1
1.18
0-0-2
0.61
0-0-2
0.81
2-0-0
4.69
Academico do Porto
1-0-1
0.94
 —
0-1-1
1.29
0-0-2
0.63
0-0-2
1.77
1-1-0
2.70
0-0-2
0.75
0-0-2
0.36
0-0-2
0.50
1-0-1
3.41
Barreirense
1-0-1
2.98
1-1-0
4.43
 —
0-0-2
1.46
2-0-0
2.95
2-0-0
3.83
0-1-1
1.54
0-0-2
0.61
0-1-1
0.46
2-0-0
3.80
Benfica
1-0-1
4.69
2-0-0
5.09
2-0-0
4.26
 —
2-0-0
4.29
1-1-0
5.03
1-0-1
2.81
0-0-2
1.07
0-0-2
2.02
2-0-0
5.17
Carcavelinhos
0-1-1
1.54
2-0-0
3.95
0-0-2
2.76
0-0-2
1.43
 —
1-0-1
4.28
0-0-2
2.93
0-0-2
0.59
0-0-2
0.44
1-1-0
4.50
Leixoes
0-1-1
1.61
0-1-1
3.02
0-0-2
1.89
0-1-1
0.69
1-0-1
1.44
 —
0-0-2
0.56
0-0-2
0.42
0-0-2
0.36
0-2-0
2.97
Os Belenenses (1st)
1-1-0
4.54
2-0-0
4.98
1-1-0
4.18
1-0-1
2.90
2-0-0
2.79
2-0-0
5.16
 —
0-0-2
1.42
0-1-1
1.62
2-0-0
5.28
Porto
2-0-0
5.11
2-0-0
5.37
2-0-0
5.12
2-0-0
4.65
2-0-0
5.13
2-0-0
5.31
2-0-0
4.30
 —
1-0-1
3.24
2-0-0
4.92
Sporting Clube de Portugal
2-0-0
4.91
2-0-0
5.23
1-1-0
5.26
2-0-0
3.70
2-0-0
5.28
2-0-0
5.37
1-1-0
4.10
1-0-1
2.48
 —
2-0-0
5.40
Vitoria Setubal
0-0-2
1.03
1-0-1
2.30
0-0-2
1.92
0-0-2
0.55
0-1-1
1.22
0-2-0
2.75
0-0-2
0.45
0-0-2
0.80
0-0-2
0.33
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.89 +3.8
Allowed 0.86 -5.3
Differential 0.95 +2.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
04.44%6.11%3.33%1.11%1.67%5.00%21.67%
16.11%3.33%1.11%3.89%2.22%6.11%22.78%
23.33%1.11%3.33%4.44%1.67%5.00%18.89%
31.11%3.89%4.44%2.22%0.56%0.56%12.78%
41.67%2.22%1.67%0.56%—0.56%6.67%
5+5.00%6.11%5.00%0.56%0.56%—17.22%
Total21.67%22.78%18.89%12.78%6.67%17.22%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.39 2.39 +0.00
SD 2.40 2.40 3.80
CV 1.00 1.00 —
Max 12 12 +12
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%——11.11%22.22%
1————5.56%5.56%11.11%
2—5.56%11.11%——11.11%27.78%
3—5.56%—5.56%——11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
Total11.11%16.67%27.78%5.56%11.11%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 3.00 -0.67
SD 1.85 2.28 3.53
CV 0.79 0.76 —
Max 5 8 +5
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%11.11%———33.33%
15.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%33.33%
2—5.56%—11.11%—11.11%27.78%
3———————
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%27.78%16.67%16.67%—27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.94 -1.61
SD 1.85 2.78 3.11
CV 1.39 0.94 —
Max 8 11 +6
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
122.22%5.56%———16.67%44.44%
25.56%—5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%22.22%11.11%5.56%—27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 2.17 -0.67
SD 1.15 2.38 2.61
CV 0.77 1.10 —
Max 4 7 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
111.11%——11.11%——22.22%
2———5.56%5.56%—11.11%
35.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
4—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
5+—16.67%5.56%———22.22%
Total16.67%27.78%22.22%22.22%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.22 1.89 +1.33
SD 2.29 1.41 2.83
CV 0.71 0.75 —
Max 9 5 +8
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%——11.11%5.56%33.33%
1———5.56%5.56%5.56%16.67%
25.56%—5.56%16.67%—5.56%33.33%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total11.11%16.67%16.67%22.22%16.67%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.72 -1.28
SD 1.38 1.74 2.42
CV 0.96 0.64 —
Max 5 6 +3
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
1—11.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%44.44%
2—————22.22%22.22%
3———11.11%——11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total5.56%22.22%5.56%22.22%5.56%38.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 3.89 -2.44
SD 1.10 2.85 3.05
CV 0.76 0.73 —
Max 4 9 +3
Min 0 0 -9

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%————11.11%
111.11%———5.56%—16.67%
25.56%—11.11%5.56%5.56%—27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+22.22%11.11%————33.33%
Total44.44%22.22%16.67%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.22 1.17 +2.06
SD 2.67 1.38 3.40
CV 0.83 1.19 —
Max 9 4 +9
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
15.56%—————5.56%
211.11%—————11.11%
3——22.22%—5.56%—27.78%
45.56%—11.11%———16.67%
5+16.67%16.67%5.56%———38.89%
Total38.89%16.67%38.89%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.22 1.17 +3.06
SD 2.24 1.15 2.75
CV 0.53 0.99 —
Max 11 4 +11
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—————11.11%
15.56%—————5.56%
2————5.56%—5.56%
35.56%11.11%————16.67%
45.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
5+5.56%11.11%22.22%5.56%——44.44%
Total33.33%27.78%22.22%11.11%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 4.83 1.28 +3.56
SD 3.47 1.23 3.45
CV 0.72 0.96 —
Max 12 4 +12
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%16.67%5.56%11.11%5.56%22.22%66.67%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
25.56%—————5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%27.78%11.11%16.67%5.56%27.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.39 3.72 -3.33
SD 0.61 3.77 3.97
CV 1.56 1.01 —
Max 2 12 +2
Min 0 0 -12

Games Played: 18

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Porto 34 29.65 +4.35
2 Barreirense 19 15.51 +3.49
3 Sporting Clube de Portugal 32 28.58 +3.42
4 Os Belenenses (1st) 25 22.74 +2.26
5 Academica de Coimbra 17 16.92 +0.08

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Carcavelinhos 10 15.79 -5.79
2 Vitoria Setubal 5 8.37 -3.37
3 Leixoes 7 9.51 -2.51
4 Academico do Porto 8 9.09 -1.09
5 Benfica 23 23.84 -0.84

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Academico do Porto 2 May 12 – May 19 1 in 76
2 Porto 13 Jan 14 – Apr 14 1 in 29
3 Barreirense 3 Feb 4 – Feb 18 1 in 19
4 Sporting Clube de Portugal 6 Feb 25 – Mar 31 1 in 7
5 Benfica 4 Feb 6 – Feb 25 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Vitoria Setubal 6 Jan 14 – Feb 25 1 in 16
2 Academico do Porto 7 Mar 17 – Apr 28 1 in 14
3 Carcavelinhos 4 Apr 28 – May 19 1 in 6
4 Leixoes 7 Mar 17 – Apr 28 1 in 4
5 Academica de Coimbra 4 Jan 14 – Feb 18 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Academico do Porto 3 May 5 – May 19 1 in 83
2 Leixoes 3 Feb 25 – Mar 10 1 in 9
3 Academica de Coimbra 4 Feb 25 – Mar 17 1 in 9
4 Os Belenenses (1st) 8 Mar 17 – May 5 1 in 8
5 Sporting Clube de Portugal 13 Feb 25 – May 19 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Leixoes 17 Jan 14 – May 12 1 in 71
2 Academico do Porto 12 Feb 18 – May 5 1 in 19
3 Carcavelinhos 5 Mar 24 – Apr 14 1 in 16
4 Vitoria Setubal 12 Jan 14 – Apr 7 1 in 13
5 Barreirense 5 Apr 21 – May 19 1 in 9

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Porto55.57%35.84%6.84%1.67%0.07%0.01%————
Sporting Clube de Portugal40.41%45.43%11.49%2.52%0.15%—————
Os Belenenses (1st)1.84%7.82%34.91%42.03%9.63%2.92%0.77%0.07%0.01%—
Benfica2.17%10.67%43.66%36.11%5.78%1.25%0.33%0.03%——
Barreirense—0.05%0.89%4.49%23.50%30.22%29.52%8.18%2.55%0.60%
Academica de Coimbra0.01%0.16%1.43%8.33%37.59%29.36%18.09%4.14%0.79%0.10%
Carcavelinhos—0.03%0.77%4.79%22.03%30.36%30.69%8.52%2.19%0.62%
Academico do Porto————0.48%2.16%7.25%30.72%32.16%27.23%
Leixoes——0.01%0.04%0.58%2.57%8.60%29.69%32.84%25.67%
Vitoria Setubal———0.02%0.19%1.15%4.75%18.65%29.46%45.78%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 5% * Slight Edge: 5% to 15% * Clear Edge: 15% to 25% * Strong Edge: 25% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+17.78%
Clear Edge
52.22%13.33%34.44%
Elo Value
Home Edge
151 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
062.43400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+1.34 goals
Strong Home
-2+0.41+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 2 * Top-Heavy: 2 to 4 * Open: 4 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.15 * Tight Race: 0.15 to 0.4 * Comfortable: 0.4 to 0.75 * Runaway: 0.75 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.1
Top-Heavy
124610
Champion Preseason Odds
56%
Porto, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Photo Finish
00.150.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.34 * Some Luck: 2.34 to 3.5 * Lucky: 3.5 to 4.67 * Wild Swing: 4.67 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.64 * Close: 0.64 to 0.96 * Off: 0.96 to 1.28 * Way Off: 1.28 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.18 points
Some Luck
02.927
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.80
Close
00.802
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.86%
Porto
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
4.48%
Carcavelinhos
050
Season Outliers
Expected
2 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.12 * Even: 0.12 to 0.18 * Top-Heavy: 0.18 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
How much more spread out the table was than a league where every match is a coin flip. The gold line at 1 is that coin-flip baseline. Above it, real talent gaps stretched the table; below it, the league was tighter than luck alone would produce.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1 * Moderate Separation: 1 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 60% * Slight Edge: 60% to 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 80% * Wide Edge: 80% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 70% * Clear Edge: 70% to 82% * Strong Edge: 82% to 92% * Dominant: 92% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 30% * Some Drama: 30% to 40% * Frequent: 40% to 50% * Very Frequent: 50% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 8% * Occasional: 8% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 22% * Very Frequent: 22% and up.
Gini Index
0.31
Lopsided
00.120.180.260.5
Noll-Scully
Coin-flip
2.46
Wide Separation
01.003
Interquartile Edge
97%
Wide Edge
50%60%70%80%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 100%
99%
Dominant
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
39%
Some Drama
0%30%100%
Blowouts
Expected
43%
Very Frequent
0%52%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.1 * Slight Separation: 0.1 to 0.18 * Notable Separation: 0.18 to 0.28 * Lopsided: 0.28 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.3 * Some Carryover: 0.3 to 0.6 * Strong Carryover: 0.6 to 0.85 * Near-Lock: 0.85 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 25% * As Expected: 25% to 33% * Upset-Prone: 33% to 42% * Very Upset-Prone: 42% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 25% * Shaky Favorites: 25% to 35% * Very Shaky: 35% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.36
Highly Predictable
00.422
Matchup Imbalance
0.66
Lopsided
00.10.180.280.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.20
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.64
Strong Carryover
00.30.60.851
Upset Rate
Expected
10%
Chalky
0%15%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
8%
Solid Favorites
0%12%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.14 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.14 to 0.21 * Above Noise: 0.21 to 0.28 * Well Above Noise: 0.28 and up.
Probability calibration
0.53
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.35
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.069
Well Within Noise
00.1400.4

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level
Academica de Coimbra 100%
Academico do Porto 100%
Barreirense 100%
Benfica 100%
Carcavelinhos 100%
Leixoes 100%
Os Belenenses (1st) 100%
Porto 100%
Sporting Clube de Portugal 100%
Vitoria Setubal 100%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent Score Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss % Elo Δ Points
1940-01-14 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-5 1266 1599 15.7% 14.1% 70.3% -37.4 0
1940-01-14 @ Academica de Coimbra W 5-2 1599 1266 70.3% 14.1% 15.7% +37.4 2
1940-01-14 Carcavelinhos W 1-0 1334 1476 36.0% 14.1% 49.8% +52.8 2
1940-01-14 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-1 1476 1334 49.8% 14.1% 36.0% -52.8 0
1940-01-14 Academico do Porto W 1-0 1498 1157 80.4% 13.9% 5.6% +7.0 2
1940-01-14 @ Benfica L 0-1 1157 1498 5.6% 13.9% 80.4% -7.0 0
1940-01-14 Barreirense L 0-1 1171 1246 45.6% 14.1% 40.3% -48.7 0
1940-01-14 @ Leixoes W 1-0 1246 1171 40.3% 14.1% 45.6% +48.7 2
1940-01-14 Vitoria Setubal W 11-0 1504 1375 68.9% 14.1% 17.0% +188.4 2
1940-01-14 @ Porto L 0-11 1375 1504 17.0% 14.1% 68.9% -188.4 0
1940-01-21 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-1 1150 1636 7.1% 13.9% 79.0% -8.7 0
1940-01-21 @ Academico do Porto W 1-0 1636 1150 79.0% 13.9% 7.1% +8.7 4
1940-01-21 Barreirense W 6-0 1386 1295 65.7% 14.1% 20.2% +124.0 4
1940-01-21 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-6 1295 1386 20.2% 14.1% 65.7% -124.1 2
1940-01-21 Porto L 2-5 1122 1692 4.5% 13.8% 81.7% -11.2 0
1940-01-21 @ Leixoes W 5-2 1692 1122 81.7% 13.8% 4.5% +11.2 4
1940-01-21 Carcavelinhos L 0-2 1187 1424 24.5% 14.1% 61.4% -53.2 0
1940-01-21 @ Vitoria Setubal W 2-0 1424 1187 61.4% 14.1% 24.5% +53.2 2
1940-02-04 Benfica D 3-3 1111 1505 11.5% 14.0% 74.5% +10.4 1
1940-02-04 @ Leixoes D 3-3 1505 1111 74.5% 14.0% 11.5% -10.4 3
1940-02-04 Academico do Porto W 6-1 1703 1141 84.7% 13.7% 1.6% +7.6 6
1940-02-04 @ Porto L 1-6 1141 1703 1.6% 13.7% 84.7% -7.6 0
1940-02-04 Os Belenenses (1st) W 4-1 1645 1510 69.4% 14.1% 16.5% +45.3 6
1940-02-04 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-4 1510 1645 16.5% 14.1% 69.4% -45.4 4
1940-02-04 Barreirense L 0-1 1134 1171 50.8% 14.1% 35.0% -53.8 0
1940-02-04 @ Vitoria Setubal W 1-0 1171 1134 35.0% 14.1% 50.8% +53.8 4
1940-02-06 Academica de Coimbra W 4-1 1494 1229 77.6% 14.0% 8.4% +24.0 5
1940-02-06 @ Benfica L 1-4 1229 1494 8.4% 14.0% 77.6% -24.0 0
1940-02-11 Porto L 0-2 1205 1711 6.3% 13.9% 79.8% -14.8 0
1940-02-11 @ Academica de Coimbra W 2-0 1711 1205 79.8% 13.9% 6.3% +14.8 8
1940-02-11 Vitoria Setubal W 1-0 1133 1080 61.8% 14.1% 24.1% +27.8 2
1940-02-11 @ Academico do Porto L 0-1 1080 1133 24.1% 14.1% 61.8% -27.8 0
1940-02-11 Carcavelinhos W 1-0 1224 1477 22.9% 14.1% 63.1% +66.1 6
1940-02-11 @ Barreirense L 0-1 1477 1224 63.1% 14.1% 22.9% -66.1 2
1940-02-11 Os Belenenses (1st) W 4-2 1518 1465 61.8% 14.1% 24.1% +40.6 7
1940-02-11 @ Benfica L 2-4 1465 1518 24.1% 14.1% 61.8% -40.6 4
1940-02-11 Leixoes W 8-1 1690 1121 84.8% 13.6% 1.6% +10.0 8
1940-02-11 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-8 1121 1690 1.6% 13.6% 84.8% -10.0 1
1940-02-18 Academico do Porto W 3-2 1411 1161 76.8% 14.0% 9.2% +10.1 4
1940-02-18 @ Carcavelinhos L 2-3 1161 1411 9.2% 14.0% 76.8% -10.1 2
1940-02-18 Academica de Coimbra W 2-0 1290 1190 66.5% 14.1% 19.4% +43.0 8
1940-02-18 @ Barreirense L 0-2 1190 1290 19.4% 14.1% 66.5% -43.0 0
1940-02-18 Leixoes W 9-0 1425 1111 79.5% 14.0% 6.5% +62.5 6
1940-02-18 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-9 1111 1425 6.5% 14.0% 79.5% -62.5 1
1940-02-18 Sporting Clube de Portugal W 4-2 1726 1700 58.7% 14.1% 27.2% +45.2 10
1940-02-18 @ Porto L 2-4 1700 1726 27.2% 14.1% 58.7% -45.2 8
1940-02-18 Benfica L 0-3 1052 1559 6.3% 13.9% 79.8% -21.5 0
1940-02-18 @ Vitoria Setubal W 3-0 1559 1052 79.8% 13.9% 6.3% +21.5 9
1940-02-25 Os Belenenses (1st) L 2-3 1151 1487 15.4% 14.1% 70.6% -16.4 2
1940-02-25 @ Academico do Porto W 3-2 1487 1151 70.6% 14.1% 15.4% +16.4 8
1940-02-25 Benfica L 1-3 1421 1580 33.8% 14.1% 52.0% -61.4 4
1940-02-25 @ Carcavelinhos W 3-1 1580 1421 52.0% 14.1% 33.8% +61.4 11
1940-02-25 Porto L 2-3 1333 1771 9.2% 14.0% 76.9% -10.0 8
1940-02-25 @ Barreirense W 3-2 1771 1333 76.9% 14.0% 9.2% +10.0 12
1940-02-25 Academica de Coimbra D 3-3 1049 1147 42.3% 14.1% 43.6% +0.2 2
1940-02-25 @ Leixoes D 3-3 1147 1049 43.6% 14.1% 42.3% -0.2 1
1940-02-25 Vitoria Setubal W 12-0 1655 1031 85.3% 13.6% 1.2% +14.9 10
1940-02-25 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-12 1031 1655 1.2% 13.6% 85.3% -14.9 0
1940-03-03 Os Belenenses (1st) D 2-2 1147 1503 13.9% 14.0% 72.1% +11.4 2
1940-03-03 @ Academica de Coimbra D 2-2 1503 1147 72.1% 14.0% 13.9% -11.4 9
1940-03-03 Barreirense L 0-1 1135 1323 30.1% 14.1% 55.8% -33.9 2
1940-03-03 @ Academico do Porto W 1-0 1323 1135 55.8% 14.1% 30.1% +33.9 10
1940-03-03 Porto L 2-3 1360 1781 10.0% 14.0% 76.1% -10.9 4
1940-03-03 @ Carcavelinhos W 3-2 1781 1360 76.1% 14.0% 10.0% +10.9 14
1940-03-03 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-3 1642 1670 52.0% 14.1% 33.8% -89.7 11
1940-03-03 @ Benfica W 3-1 1670 1642 33.8% 14.1% 52.0% +89.7 12
1940-03-03 Leixoes D 1-1 1016 1049 51.3% 14.1% 34.5% -4.1 1
1940-03-03 @ Vitoria Setubal D 1-1 1049 1016 34.5% 14.1% 51.3% +4.1 3
1940-03-10 Vitoria Setubal W 5-0 1158 1012 70.4% 14.1% 15.6% +81.9 4
1940-03-10 @ Academica de Coimbra L 0-5 1012 1158 15.6% 14.1% 70.4% -81.9 1
1940-03-10 Leixoes D 0-0 1101 1053 61.2% 14.1% 24.7% -10.3 3
1940-03-10 @ Academico do Porto D 0-0 1053 1101 24.7% 14.1% 61.2% +10.3 4
1940-03-10 Benfica L 0-1 1357 1552 29.3% 14.1% 56.5% -33.2 10
1940-03-10 @ Barreirense W 1-0 1552 1357 56.5% 14.1% 29.3% +33.2 13
1940-03-10 Porto L 0-1 1492 1792 18.3% 14.1% 67.6% -21.6 9
1940-03-10 @ Os Belenenses (1st) W 1-0 1792 1492 67.6% 14.1% 18.3% +21.6 16
1940-03-10 Carcavelinhos W 4-0 1759 1349 82.3% 13.9% 3.8% +17.2 14
1940-03-10 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-4 1349 1759 3.8% 13.9% 82.3% -17.2 4
1940-03-17 Academico do Porto W 5-2 1240 1090 70.6% 14.1% 15.3% +36.6 6
1940-03-17 @ Academica de Coimbra L 2-5 1090 1240 15.3% 14.1% 70.6% -36.6 3
1940-03-17 Leixoes W 5-2 1331 1063 77.7% 14.0% 8.3% +20.5 6
1940-03-17 @ Carcavelinhos L 2-5 1063 1331 8.3% 14.0% 77.7% -20.5 4
1940-03-17 Benfica W 4-2 1814 1585 75.7% 14.0% 10.3% +18.3 18
1940-03-17 @ Porto L 2-4 1585 1814 10.3% 14.0% 75.7% -18.3 13
1940-03-17 Barreirense W 7-3 1777 1324 83.2% 13.8% 3.0% +8.8 16
1940-03-17 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 3-7 1324 1777 3.0% 13.8% 83.2% -8.8 10
1940-03-17 Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-1 930 1470 5.3% 13.9% 80.9% -6.6 1
1940-03-17 @ Vitoria Setubal W 1-0 1470 930 80.9% 13.9% 5.3% +6.6 11
1940-03-24 Benfica L 1-5 1054 1567 6.1% 13.9% 80.0% -22.6 3
1940-03-24 @ Academico do Porto W 5-1 1567 1054 80.0% 13.9% 6.1% +22.6 15
1940-03-24 Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-5 1352 1477 38.5% 14.1% 47.4% -125.5 6
1940-03-24 @ Carcavelinhos W 5-1 1477 1352 47.4% 14.1% 38.5% +125.5 13
1940-03-24 Leixoes W 4-1 1315 1043 77.9% 14.0% 8.1% +23.2 12
1940-03-24 @ Barreirense L 1-4 1043 1315 8.1% 14.0% 77.9% -23.1 4
1940-03-24 Academica de Coimbra W 6-1 1785 1277 84.0% 13.7% 2.2% +10.2 18
1940-03-24 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-6 1277 1785 2.2% 13.7% 84.0% -10.2 6
1940-03-24 Porto L 0-4 923 1832 0.7% 13.3% 86.1% -3.0 1
1940-03-24 @ Vitoria Setubal W 4-0 1832 923 86.1% 13.3% 0.7% +3.0 20
1940-03-31 Benfica W 5-4 1266 1590 16.4% 14.1% 69.6% +62.9 8
1940-03-31 @ Academica de Coimbra L 4-5 1590 1266 69.6% 14.1% 16.4% -62.9 15
1940-03-31 Vitoria Setubal D 0-0 1226 920 79.2% 14.0% 6.8% -21.9 7
1940-03-31 @ Carcavelinhos D 0-0 920 1226 6.8% 14.0% 79.2% +21.9 2
1940-03-31 Os Belenenses (1st) D 2-2 1338 1603 21.7% 14.1% 64.2% +8.1 13
1940-03-31 @ Barreirense D 2-2 1603 1338 64.2% 14.1% 21.7% -8.1 14
1940-03-31 Leixoes W 5-1 1835 1020 86.4% 13.2% 0.4% +1.5 22
1940-03-31 @ Porto L 1-5 1020 1835 0.4% 13.2% 86.4% -1.5 4
1940-03-31 Academico do Porto W 11-2 1796 1031 86.2% 13.3% 0.5% +3.4 20
1940-03-31 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-11 1031 1796 0.5% 13.3% 86.2% -3.4 3
1940-04-03 Academica de Coimbra L 0-4 1205 1329 38.5% 14.1% 47.3% -150.8 7
1940-04-03 @ Carcavelinhos W 4-0 1329 1205 47.3% 14.1% 38.5% +150.8 10
1940-04-07 Carcavelinhos D 2-2 1480 1054 82.7% 13.8% 3.5% -16.1 11
1940-04-07 @ Academica de Coimbra D 2-2 1054 1480 3.5% 13.8% 82.7% +16.1 8
1940-04-07 Porto L 0-2 1028 1836 1.2% 13.5% 85.4% -2.8 3
1940-04-07 @ Academico do Porto W 2-0 1836 1028 85.4% 13.5% 1.2% +2.8 24
1940-04-07 Vitoria Setubal W 3-1 1347 942 82.2% 13.9% 4.0% +8.1 15
1940-04-07 @ Barreirense L 1-3 942 1347 4.0% 13.9% 82.2% -8.1 2
1940-04-07 Sporting Clube de Portugal D 0-0 1594 1799 28.2% 14.1% 57.7% +8.2 15
1940-04-07 @ Os Belenenses (1st) D 0-0 1799 1594 57.7% 14.1% 28.2% -8.2 21
1940-04-07 Leixoes W 7-2 1527 1018 84.0% 13.7% 2.2% +8.6 17
1940-04-07 @ Benfica L 2-7 1018 1527 2.2% 13.7% 84.0% -8.6 4
1940-04-14 Barreirense L 2-3 1070 1355 19.7% 14.1% 66.2% -20.7 8
1940-04-14 @ Carcavelinhos W 3-2 1355 1070 66.2% 14.1% 19.7% +20.7 17
1940-04-14 Benfica W 2-0 1603 1535 63.3% 14.1% 22.6% +49.5 17
1940-04-14 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-2 1535 1603 22.6% 14.1% 63.3% -49.5 17
1940-04-14 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-9 1010 1791 1.4% 13.5% 85.1% -7.1 4
1940-04-14 @ Leixoes W 9-2 1791 1010 85.1% 13.5% 1.4% +7.1 23
1940-04-14 Academica de Coimbra W 6-0 1839 1464 81.4% 13.9% 4.7% +30.5 26
1940-04-14 @ Porto L 0-6 1464 1839 4.7% 13.9% 81.4% -30.5 11
1940-04-14 Academico do Porto W 2-0 934 1025 43.3% 14.1% 42.6% +86.6 4
1940-04-14 @ Vitoria Setubal L 0-2 1025 934 42.6% 14.1% 43.3% -86.6 3
1940-04-21 Barreirense W 5-1 1433 1375 62.3% 14.1% 23.6% +81.3 13
1940-04-21 @ Academica de Coimbra L 1-5 1375 1433 23.6% 14.1% 62.3% -81.3 17
1940-04-21 Carcavelinhos L 1-3 938 1049 40.5% 14.1% 45.4% -71.8 3
1940-04-21 @ Academico do Porto W 3-1 1049 938 45.4% 14.1% 40.5% +71.8 10
1940-04-21 Vitoria Setubal W 9-1 1486 1021 83.4% 13.8% 2.8% +20.2 19
1940-04-21 @ Benfica L 1-9 1021 1486 2.8% 13.8% 83.4% -20.2 4
1940-04-21 Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-3 1002 1652 2.9% 13.7% 83.4% -5.9 4
1940-04-21 @ Leixoes W 3-1 1652 1002 83.4% 13.7% 2.9% +5.9 19
1940-04-21 Porto W 4-3 1798 1870 46.0% 14.1% 39.8% +37.9 25
1940-04-21 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 3-4 1870 1798 39.8% 14.1% 46.0% -37.9 26
1940-04-28 Leixoes W 3-1 1515 997 84.2% 13.7% 2.1% +4.3 15
1940-04-28 @ Academica de Coimbra L 1-3 997 1515 2.1% 13.7% 84.2% -4.3 4
1940-04-28 Academico do Porto W 6-1 1658 867 86.3% 13.2% 0.4% +2.1 21
1940-04-28 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 1-6 867 1658 0.4% 13.2% 86.3% -2.1 3
1940-04-28 Carcavelinhos W 3-2 1506 1121 81.7% 13.9% 4.4% +5.0 21
1940-04-28 @ Benfica L 2-3 1121 1506 4.4% 13.9% 81.7% -5.0 10
1940-04-28 Barreirense W 5-1 1832 1294 84.4% 13.7% 1.9% +7.1 28
1940-04-28 @ Porto L 1-5 1294 1832 1.9% 13.7% 84.4% -7.1 17
1940-04-28 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 0-3 1000 1836 1.0% 13.4% 85.6% -3.5 4
1940-04-28 @ Vitoria Setubal W 3-0 1836 1000 85.6% 13.4% 1.0% +3.5 27
1940-05-05 Academico do Porto D 1-1 1287 864 82.6% 13.8% 3.6% -21.6 18
1940-05-05 @ Barreirense D 1-1 864 1287 3.6% 13.8% 82.6% +21.6 4
1940-05-05 Academica de Coimbra W 5-0 1660 1519 70.0% 14.1% 16.0% +83.9 23
1940-05-05 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-5 1519 1660 16.0% 14.1% 70.0% -83.9 15
1940-05-05 Vitoria Setubal D 1-1 992 997 55.0% 14.1% 30.8% -6.0 5
1940-05-05 @ Leixoes D 1-1 997 992 30.8% 14.1% 55.0% +6.0 5
1940-05-05 Carcavelinhos W 6-0 1839 1116 86.0% 13.4% 0.7% +4.4 30
1940-05-05 @ Porto L 0-6 1116 1839 0.7% 13.4% 86.0% -4.4 10
1940-05-05 Benfica W 3-1 1839 1511 80.0% 14.0% 6.0% +12.2 29
1940-05-05 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal L 1-3 1511 1839 6.0% 14.0% 80.0% -12.2 21
1940-05-12 Sporting Clube de Portugal L 2-5 1112 1852 1.7% 13.6% 84.7% -4.4 10
1940-05-12 @ Carcavelinhos W 5-2 1852 1112 84.7% 13.6% 1.7% +4.4 31
1940-05-12 Academico do Porto L 1-2 986 886 66.5% 14.1% 19.4% -65.7 5
1940-05-12 @ Leixoes W 2-1 886 986 19.4% 14.1% 66.5% +65.7 6
1940-05-12 Os Belenenses (1st) W 3-2 1843 1744 66.4% 14.1% 19.5% +20.5 32
1940-05-12 @ Porto L 2-3 1744 1843 19.5% 14.1% 66.4% -20.5 23
1940-05-12 Academica de Coimbra L 1-2 1003 1435 9.4% 14.0% 76.6% -10.9 5
1940-05-12 @ Vitoria Setubal W 2-1 1435 1003 76.6% 14.0% 9.4% +10.9 17
1940-05-15 Barreirense W 5-1 1499 1265 76.0% 14.0% 10.0% +36.5 23
1940-05-15 @ Benfica L 1-5 1265 1499 10.0% 14.0% 76.0% -36.5 18
1940-05-19 Academica de Coimbra W 8-2 952 1446 6.8% 13.9% 79.3% +301.1 8
1940-05-19 @ Academico do Porto L 2-8 1446 952 79.3% 13.9% 6.8% -301.1 17
1940-05-19 Sporting Clube de Portugal D 0-0 1229 1856 3.3% 13.7% 83.0% +24.3 19
1940-05-19 @ Barreirense D 0-0 1856 1229 83.0% 13.7% 3.3% -24.3 32
1940-05-19 Vitoria Setubal W 8-0 1724 992 86.0% 13.4% 0.6% +5.5 25
1940-05-19 @ Os Belenenses (1st) L 0-8 992 1724 0.6% 13.4% 86.0% -5.5 5
1940-05-19 Porto L 2-3 1535 1864 16.0% 14.1% 70.0% -17.0 23
1940-05-19 @ Benfica W 3-2 1864 1535 70.0% 14.1% 16.0% +17.0 34
1940-05-19 Carcavelinhos W 4-1 921 1107 30.3% 14.1% 55.5% +134.9 7
1940-05-19 @ Leixoes L 1-4 1107 921 55.5% 14.1% 30.3% -134.9 10

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1940-05-19 6.77% @ Academico do Porto 952 8 Academica de Coimbra 1446 2
2 1940-03-31 16.38% @ Academica de Coimbra 1266 5 Benfica 1590 4
3 1940-05-12 19.43% Academico do Porto 886 2 @ Leixoes 986 1
4 1940-02-11 22.85% @ Barreirense 1224 1 Carcavelinhos 1477 0
5 1940-05-19 30.33% @ Leixoes 921 4 Carcavelinhos 1107 1
6 1940-03-03 33.82% Sporting Clube de Portugal 1670 3 @ Benfica 1642 1
7 1940-02-04 35.01% Barreirense 1171 1 @ Vitoria Setubal 1134 0
8 1940-01-14 36.04% @ Os Belenenses (1st) 1334 1 Carcavelinhos 1476 0
9 1940-01-14 40.30% Barreirense 1246 1 @ Leixoes 1171 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1940-05-19 301.12 @ Academico do Porto 8 952 6.77% Academica de Coimbra 2 1446 79.32% 13.90%
2 1940-01-14 188.38 @ Porto 11 1504 68.93% Vitoria Setubal 0 1375 16.97% 14.09%
3 1940-04-03 150.79 Academica de Coimbra 4 1329 47.34% @ Carcavelinhos 0 1205 38.53% 14.14%
4 1940-05-19 134.87 @ Leixoes 4 921 30.33% Carcavelinhos 1 1107 55.55% 14.12%
5 1940-03-24 125.52 Os Belenenses (1st) 5 1477 47.38% @ Carcavelinhos 1 1352 38.48% 14.14%
6 1940-01-21 124.05 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 6 1386 65.67% Barreirense 0 1295 20.22% 14.11%
7 1940-03-03 89.72 Sporting Clube de Portugal 3 1670 33.82% @ Benfica 1 1642 52.04% 14.14%
8 1940-04-14 86.61 @ Vitoria Setubal 2 934 43.30% Academico do Porto 0 1025 42.56% 14.14%
9 1940-05-05 83.94 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 5 1660 69.95% Academica de Coimbra 0 1519 15.96% 14.09%
10 1940-03-10 81.92 @ Academica de Coimbra 5 1158 70.36% Vitoria Setubal 0 1012 15.55% 14.09%
11 1940-04-21 81.29 @ Academica de Coimbra 5 1433 62.29% Barreirense 1 1375 23.59% 14.12%
12 1940-04-21 71.84 Carcavelinhos 3 1049 45.39% @ Academico do Porto 1 938 40.48% 14.14%
13 1940-02-11 66.08 @ Barreirense 1 1224 22.85% Carcavelinhos 0 1477 63.06% 14.10%
14 1940-05-12 65.73 Academico do Porto 2 886 19.43% @ Leixoes 1 986 66.46% 14.11%
15 1940-03-31 62.89 @ Academica de Coimbra 5 1266 16.38% Benfica 4 1590 69.56% 14.05%
16 1940-02-18 62.52 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 9 1425 79.51% Leixoes 0 1111 6.53% 13.96%
17 1940-02-25 61.41 Benfica 3 1580 52.05% @ Carcavelinhos 1 1421 33.82% 14.13%
18 1940-02-04 53.78 Barreirense 1 1171 35.01% @ Vitoria Setubal 0 1134 50.85% 14.14%
19 1940-01-21 53.23 Carcavelinhos 2 1424 61.38% @ Vitoria Setubal 0 1187 24.52% 14.10%
20 1940-01-14 52.79 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 1 1334 36.04% Carcavelinhos 0 1476 49.83% 14.13%
21 1940-04-14 49.48 @ Os Belenenses (1st) 2 1603 63.26% Benfica 0 1535 22.62% 14.12%
22 1940-01-14 48.73 Barreirense 1 1246 40.30% @ Leixoes 0 1171 45.56% 14.14%
23 1940-02-04 45.35 @ Sporting Clube de Portugal 4 1645 69.40% Os Belenenses (1st) 1 1510 16.51% 14.09%
24 1940-02-18 45.22 @ Porto 4 1726 58.71% Sporting Clube de Portugal 2 1700 27.16% 14.13%
25 1940-02-18 43.00 @ Barreirense 2 1290 66.49% Academica de Coimbra 0 1190 19.40% 14.11%