1948-49 Primeira Divisão Season

182 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Sporting Clube de Portugal

42 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sporting Clube de Portugal

3.95 points above expected

42 points · 38.05 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Boavista

4.58 points below expected

14 points · 18.58 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	26	20	2	4	42	100	35	+65	38.0	+3.95
2	Benfica	26	17	3	6	37	72	34	+38	35.0	+1.95
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	26	16	3	7	35	68	36	+32	34.2	+0.81
4	Porto	26	16	1	9	33	55	37	+18	32.0	+1.04
5	Estoril	26	12	5	9	29	76	54	+22	32.5	-3.47
6	Vitoria Guimaraes	26	11	4	11	26	47	50	-3	23.4	+2.59
7	Olhanense	26	10	4	12	24	51	55	-4	20.9	+3.13
8	Braga	26	11	2	13	24	39	54	-15	21.5	+2.52
9	O Elvas	26	7	7	12	21	46	61	-15	23.6	-2.59
10	Atletico Clube de Portugal	26	8	5	13	21	44	68	-24	22.5	-1.54
11	Sporting Covilha	26	9	2	15	20	50	59	-9	23.2	-3.16
12	Vitoria Setubal	26	8	4	14	20	39	61	-22	20.3	-0.31
13	Lusitano VRSA	26	7	4	15	18	23	52	-29	18.3	-0.34
14	Boavista	26	4	6	16	14	35	89	-54	18.6	-4.58

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1718	42	38.05	+3.95	88.0%	28	33	35	38	40	44	45
Benfica	1644	37	35.05	+1.95	77.0%	24	28	33	35	37	41	44
Os Belenenses (1st)	1598	35	34.19	+0.81	64.0%	24	27	32	34	37	41	43
Porto	1524	33	31.96	+1.04	62.0%	21	24	29	32	35	39	43
Estoril	1495	29	32.47	-3.47	17.0%	21	26	30	32	34	39	41
Sporting Covilha	1374	20	23.16	-3.16	23.0%	13	16	21	24	26	29	32
Vitoria Guimaraes	1370	26	23.41	+2.59	84.0%	15	19	22	23	25	29	35
O Elvas	1333	21	23.59	-2.59	31.0%	14	16	21	24	27	30	32
Braga	1327	24	21.48	+2.52	79.0%	13	16	19	21	24	26	31
Olhanense	1315	24	20.87	+3.13	81.0%	12	15	18	21	23	27	32
Vitoria Setubal	1310	20	20.31	-0.31	50.0%	12	14	18	20	23	25	28
Atletico Clube de Portugal	1291	21	22.54	-1.54	39.0%	11	15	20	23	26	28	33
Lusitano VRSA	1212	18	18.34	-0.34	48.0%	10	12	15	19	21	24	29
Boavista	1202	14	18.58	-4.58	14.0%	9	11	16	19	21	24	30

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ACDP	BEN	BOA	BRA	EST	LV	OE	OLH	OB(	POR	SCDP	SC	VG	VS
Atletico Clube de Portugal	—	0-0-2 1.46	0-2-0 3.38	1-0-1 2.91	0-1-1 1.78	2-0-0 3.18	1-0-1 2.97	0-1-1 2.95	0-0-2 1.82	1-0-1 1.76	0-0-2 1.65	2-0-0 2.61	0-1-1 2.64	1-0-1 2.94
Benfica	2-0-0 4.31	—	2-0-0 4.76	2-0-0 4.36	1-0-1 3.15	2-0-0 4.66	2-0-0 4.20	1-0-1 4.44	1-0-1 3.10	0-1-1 3.23	0-1-1 2.26	1-0-1 4.15	1-1-0 4.14	2-0-0 4.40
Boavista	0-2-0 2.38	0-0-2 1.02	—	1-0-1 2.40	0-0-2 1.66	1-0-1 2.80	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 2.45	0-1-1 1.26	0-0-2 1.64	0-1-1 0.72	1-0-1 2.35	0-1-1 2.33	0-1-1 2.59
Braga	1-0-1 2.86	0-0-2 1.42	1-0-1 3.37	—	1-0-1 1.81	1-0-1 3.32	0-1-1 2.83	0-0-2 2.98	1-0-1 1.43	2-0-0 1.80	1-0-1 1.25	1-0-1 2.69	0-1-1 2.77	2-0-0 2.91
Estoril	1-1-0 3.99	1-0-1 2.61	2-0-0 4.12	1-0-1 3.96	—	0-2-0 4.48	0-1-1 3.94	2-0-0 3.79	1-0-1 2.69	1-0-1 2.88	0-0-2 2.27	1-1-0 3.88	1-0-1 3.74	1-0-1 4.11
Lusitano VRSA	0-0-2 2.59	0-0-2 1.11	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 2.44	0-2-0 1.30	—	1-1-0 2.33	1-0-1 2.54	0-1-1 1.40	1-0-1 1.26	0-0-2 0.83	1-0-1 2.27	1-0-1 2.33	0-0-2 2.75
O Elvas	1-0-1 2.79	0-0-2 1.57	2-0-0 3.41	1-1-0 2.93	1-1-0 1.83	0-1-1 3.44	—	0-1-1 3.13	0-1-1 1.65	1-0-1 1.75	0-0-2 1.29	0-0-2 2.86	1-0-1 2.79	0-2-0 3.10
Olhanense	1-1-0 2.81	1-0-1 1.34	1-0-1 3.31	2-0-0 2.78	0-0-2 1.98	1-0-1 3.23	1-1-0 2.63	—	0-0-2 1.61	0-0-2 1.87	0-0-2 1.05	1-1-0 2.68	1-0-1 2.70	1-1-0 3.02
Os Belenenses (1st)	2-0-0 3.95	1-0-1 2.66	1-1-0 4.52	1-0-1 4.34	1-0-1 3.07	1-1-0 4.38	1-1-0 4.12	2-0-0 4.16	—	1-0-1 3.10	0-0-2 2.51	2-0-0 4.16	1-0-1 4.15	2-0-0 4.16
Porto	1-0-1 4.01	1-1-0 2.53	2-0-0 4.13	0-0-2 3.97	1-0-1 2.88	1-0-1 4.51	1-0-1 4.02	2-0-0 3.90	1-0-1 2.67	—	2-0-0 2.08	2-0-0 3.75	1-0-1 3.68	1-0-1 4.16
Sporting Clube de Portugal	2-0-0 4.13	1-1-0 3.50	1-1-0 5.06	1-0-1 4.53	2-0-0 3.50	2-0-0 4.95	2-0-0 4.49	2-0-0 4.73	2-0-0 3.25	0-0-2 3.69	—	1-0-1 4.85	2-0-0 4.47	2-0-0 4.83
Sporting Covilha	0-0-2 3.15	1-0-1 1.62	1-0-1 3.41	1-0-1 3.07	0-1-1 1.88	1-0-1 3.50	2-0-0 2.90	0-1-1 3.09	0-0-2 1.61	0-0-2 2.01	1-0-1 0.92	—	1-0-1 2.82	1-0-1 3.26
Vitoria Guimaraes	1-1-0 3.12	0-1-1 1.63	1-1-0 3.44	1-1-0 2.99	1-0-1 2.03	1-0-1 3.44	1-0-1 2.97	1-0-1 3.07	1-0-1 1.62	1-0-1 2.09	0-0-2 1.31	1-0-1 2.94	—	1-0-1 3.21
Vitoria Setubal	1-0-1 2.83	0-0-2 1.37	1-1-0 3.17	0-0-2 2.85	1-0-1 1.66	2-0-0 3.01	0-2-0 2.66	0-1-1 2.75	0-0-2 1.61	1-0-1 1.61	0-0-2 0.96	1-0-1 2.50	1-0-1 2.55	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	0.55%	5.22%	3.30%	2.47%	1.37%	3.30%	16.21%
1	5.22%	8.24%	8.24%	4.95%	1.92%	5.49%	34.07%
2	3.30%	8.24%	2.75%	1.37%	1.37%	1.92%	18.96%
3	2.47%	4.95%	1.37%	2.75%	1.10%	0.82%	13.46%
4	1.37%	1.92%	1.37%	1.10%	—	—	5.77%
5+	3.30%	5.49%	1.92%	0.82%	—	—	11.54%
Total	16.21%	34.07%	18.96%	13.46%	5.77%	11.54%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.05
Mean allowed	2.05
StdDev scored	1.85
StdDev allowed	1.85
Mean total goals/game	4.09
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.100
Sample size (games)	182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	15.38%
1	3.85%	11.54%	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	11.54%	50.00%
2	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
3	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	19.23%
4	—	—	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%
5+	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	7.69%	26.92%	15.38%	26.92%	7.69%	15.38%	100%

Atletico Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.69
Mean allowed	2.62
StdDev scored	1.46
StdDev allowed	1.88
Mean total goals/game	4.31
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.409
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
1	11.54%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	26.92%
2	—	15.38%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
3	—	7.69%	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	19.23%
4	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
5+	15.38%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	19.23%
Total	30.77%	38.46%	11.54%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.77
Mean allowed	1.31
StdDev scored	1.99
StdDev allowed	1.35
Mean total goals/game	4.08
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.271
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	11.54%	26.92%
1	—	15.38%	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	11.54%	46.15%
2	—	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	—	11.54%
3	—	—	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	7.69%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	3.85%	34.62%	7.69%	15.38%	11.54%	26.92%	100%

Boavista — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.35
Mean allowed	3.42
StdDev scored	1.50
StdDev allowed	3.02
Mean total goals/game	4.77
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.131
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	7.69%	3.85%	23.08%
1	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	26.92%
2	7.69%	15.38%	—	7.69%	—	—	30.77%
3	—	7.69%	—	—	7.69%	—	15.38%
4	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.38%	34.62%	15.38%	7.69%	19.23%	7.69%	100%

Braga — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	2.08
StdDev scored	1.14
StdDev allowed	1.70
Mean total goals/game	3.58
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.186
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
1	—	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	19.23%
2	3.85%	7.69%	11.54%	—	7.69%	3.85%	34.62%
3	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	15.38%
4	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	3.85%	15.38%	3.85%	—	—	—	23.08%
Total	7.69%	34.62%	30.77%	7.69%	11.54%	7.69%	100%

Estoril — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.92
Mean allowed	2.08
StdDev scored	2.06
StdDev allowed	1.49
Mean total goals/game	5.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.323
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	11.54%	3.85%	11.54%	—	3.85%	30.77%
1	11.54%	11.54%	11.54%	7.69%	—	7.69%	50.00%
2	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	—	19.23%
3	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.38%	34.62%	19.23%	19.23%	—	11.54%	100%

Lusitano VRSA — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	0.88
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	0.71
StdDev allowed	1.79
Mean total goals/game	2.88
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.251
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	7.69%	19.23%
1	—	15.38%	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	34.62%
2	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	19.23%
3	3.85%	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	15.38%
4	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	11.54%	30.77%	19.23%	15.38%	7.69%	15.38%	100%

O Elvas — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.77
Mean allowed	2.35
StdDev scored	1.61
StdDev allowed	1.87
Mean total goals/game	4.12
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.344
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	11.54%
1	11.54%	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	—	7.69%	42.31%
2	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	23.08%
3	—	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	7.69%
4	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	11.54%
5+	—	—	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%
Total	19.23%	26.92%	26.92%	11.54%	—	15.38%	100%

Olhanense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.96
Mean allowed	2.12
StdDev scored	2.01
StdDev allowed	2.05
Mean total goals/game	4.08
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.089
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	11.54%
1	—	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	26.92%
2	3.85%	11.54%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
3	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	—	19.23%
4	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	7.69%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	23.08%
Total	19.23%	46.15%	23.08%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.62
Mean allowed	1.38
StdDev scored	2.02
StdDev allowed	1.20
Mean total goals/game	4.00
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.348
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	15.38%
1	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	—	3.85%	23.08%
2	7.69%	15.38%	—	3.85%	—	—	26.92%
3	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
4	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
5+	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	19.23%	46.15%	15.38%	15.38%	—	3.85%	100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.12
Mean allowed	1.42
StdDev scored	1.58
StdDev allowed	1.21
Mean total goals/game	3.54
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.194
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	—	11.54%
1	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
2	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%	7.69%
3	7.69%	11.54%	—	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
4	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
5+	—	23.08%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	34.62%
Total	23.08%	46.15%	11.54%	15.38%	—	3.85%	100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	3.85
Mean allowed	1.35
StdDev scored	2.71
StdDev allowed	1.23
Mean total goals/game	5.19
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	0.125
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	7.69%
1	7.69%	3.85%	26.92%	3.85%	3.85%	11.54%	57.69%
2	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	11.54%
3	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
4	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	3.85%	—	11.54%	—	—	—	15.38%
Total	23.08%	7.69%	42.31%	3.85%	7.69%	15.38%	100%

Sporting Covilha — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.92
Mean allowed	2.27
StdDev scored	1.76
StdDev allowed	1.99
Mean total goals/game	4.19
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.256
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	—	3.85%	19.23%
1	7.69%	11.54%	—	7.69%	—	—	26.92%
2	—	11.54%	—	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	26.92%
3	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
4	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
5+	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	19.23%	34.62%	7.69%	23.08%	7.69%	7.69%	100%

Vitoria Guimaraes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.81
Mean allowed	1.92
StdDev scored	1.44
StdDev allowed	1.65
Mean total goals/game	3.73
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.326
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	11.54%	23.08%
1	3.85%	7.69%	11.54%	7.69%	—	7.69%	38.46%
2	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	19.23%
3	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	—	11.54%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	11.54%	34.62%	19.23%	11.54%	—	23.08%	100%

Vitoria Setubal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	2.35
StdDev scored	1.39
StdDev allowed	1.96
Mean total goals/game	3.85
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.389
Games played	26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	42	38.0	+3.95
2	Olhanense	24	20.9	+3.13
3	Vitoria Guimaraes	26	23.4	+2.59
4	Braga	24	21.5	+2.52
5	Benfica	37	35.0	+1.95

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Boavista	14	18.6	-4.58
2	Estoril	29	32.5	-3.47
3	Sporting Covilha	20	23.2	-3.16
4	O Elvas	21	23.6	-2.59
5	Atletico Clube de Portugal	21	22.5	-1.54

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Estoril	9	Oct 24 – Dec 20	1 in 501
2	Braga	3	Sep 19 – Oct 3	1 in 216
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	7	Dec 5 – Jan 23	1 in 66
4	Porto	3	Mar 27 – Apr 10	1 in 32
5	Atletico Clube de Portugal	3	Nov 14 – Nov 28	1 in 25

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sporting Covilha	7	Oct 24 – Dec 5	1 in 257
2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	2	Mar 27 – Apr 3	1 in 94
3	Vitoria Setubal	4	Sep 19 – Oct 10	1 in 23
4	Braga	3	Nov 28 – Dec 12	1 in 18
5	Estoril	3	Feb 20 – Mar 27	1 in 15

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Estoril	12	Oct 10 – Jan 2	1 in 110
2	Braga	4	Sep 19 – Oct 10	1 in 37
3	Atletico Clube de Portugal	5	Nov 14 – Dec 12	1 in 37
4	O Elvas	5	Oct 17 – Nov 14	1 in 28
5	Boavista	3	Jan 9 – Jan 23	1 in 24

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atletico Clube de Portugal	9	Dec 25 – Feb 20	1 in 82
2	Sporting Covilha	7	Oct 24 – Dec 5	1 in 40
3	Vitoria Setubal	9	Nov 14 – Jan 16	1 in 40
4	Estoril	5	Feb 20 – Apr 10	1 in 40
5	O Elvas	6	Nov 7 – Dec 12	1 in 39

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Sporting Clube de Portugal	52.00%	29.00%	11.00%	5.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Benfica	23.00%	23.00%	25.00%	18.00%	7.00%	2.00%	—	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	13.00%	25.00%	25.00%	21.00%	11.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Porto	8.00%	12.00%	15.00%	18.00%	28.00%	14.00%	—	3.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Estoril	4.00%	11.00%	23.00%	33.00%	22.00%	4.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Vitoria Guimaraes	—	—	1.00%	—	5.00%	11.00%	21.00%	14.00%	16.00%	18.00%	9.00%	3.00%	—	2.00%
Olhanense	—	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	10.00%	8.00%	13.00%	9.00%	12.00%	8.00%	16.00%	11.00%	11.00%
Braga	—	—	—	—	1.00%	7.00%	8.00%	15.00%	12.00%	7.00%	24.00%	8.00%	13.00%	5.00%
O Elvas	—	—	—	1.00%	11.00%	20.00%	12.00%	9.00%	10.00%	14.00%	7.00%	6.00%	7.00%	3.00%
Atletico Clube de Portugal	—	—	—	—	3.00%	12.00%	20.00%	12.00%	11.00%	8.00%	11.00%	11.00%	5.00%	7.00%
Sporting Covilha	—	—	—	1.00%	8.00%	13.00%	17.00%	14.00%	13.00%	7.00%	8.00%	8.00%	5.00%	6.00%
Vitoria Setubal	—	—	—	—	—	5.00%	6.00%	12.00%	9.00%	11.00%	9.00%	17.00%	21.00%	10.00%
Lusitano VRSA	—	—	—	1.00%	—	—	2.00%	3.00%	7.00%	10.00%	15.00%	13.00%	20.00%	29.00%
Boavista	—	—	—	1.00%	—	—	3.00%	2.00%	11.00%	11.00%	9.00%	18.00%	18.00%	27.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Benfica	100%	—
Estoril	100%	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%	—
Porto	100%	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%	—
Vitoria Guimaraes	98.0%	2.0%
O Elvas	97.0%	3.0%
Braga	95.0%	5.0%
Sporting Covilha	94.0%	6.0%
Atletico Clube de Portugal	93.0%	7.0%
Vitoria Setubal	90.0%	10.0%
Olhanense	89.0%	11.0%
Boavista	73.0%	27.0%
Lusitano VRSA	71.0%	29.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1948-09-19	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1381	1620	45.0%	11.9%	43.0%	-29.3	0
1948-09-19	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-0	1620	1381	43.0%	11.9%	45.0%	+29.3	3
1948-09-19	Olhanense	W 1-0	1611	1313	85.8%	10.8%	3.3%	+0.9	3
1948-09-19	@ Benfica	L 0-1	1313	1611	3.3%	10.8%	85.8%	-0.9	0
1948-09-19	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1254	1555	36.3%	11.9%	51.9%	+0.9	1
1948-09-19	@ Lusitano VRSA	D 1-1	1555	1254	51.9%	11.9%	36.3%	-0.9	1
1948-09-19	O Elvas	W 3-1	1520	1337	82.5%	11.3%	6.2%	+2.7	3
1948-09-19	@ Porto	L 1-3	1337	1520	6.2%	11.3%	82.5%	-2.7	0
1948-09-19	Boavista	W 4-0	1387	1285	78.9%	11.6%	9.5%	+8.9	3
1948-09-19	@ Sporting Covilha	L 0-4	1285	1387	9.5%	11.6%	78.9%	-8.9	0
1948-09-19	Estoril	W 4-1	1340	1501	55.6%	12.0%	32.5%	+18.5	3
1948-09-19	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-4	1501	1340	32.5%	12.0%	55.6%	-18.5	0
1948-09-19	Braga	L 1-2	1309	1299	73.1%	11.8%	15.1%	-16.1	0
1948-09-19	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1299	1309	15.1%	11.8%	73.1%	+16.1	3
1948-09-26	Benfica	L 0-1	1554	1612	67.3%	11.9%	20.8%	-15.7	1
1948-09-26	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 1-0	1612	1554	20.8%	11.9%	67.3%	+15.7	6
1948-09-26	Porto	L 1-5	1276	1523	43.9%	11.9%	44.2%	-31.2	0
1948-09-26	@ Boavista	W 5-1	1523	1276	44.2%	11.9%	43.9%	+31.2	6
1948-09-26	Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1315	1396	65.0%	11.9%	23.1%	+5.5	6
1948-09-26	@ Braga	L 1-2	1396	1315	23.1%	11.9%	65.0%	-5.5	3
1948-09-26	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-1	1483	1352	80.3%	11.5%	8.2%	+3.5	3
1948-09-26	@ Estoril	L 1-3	1352	1483	8.2%	11.5%	80.3%	-3.5	0
1948-09-26	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-2	1334	1358	70.4%	11.9%	17.7%	+4.1	3
1948-09-26	@ O Elvas	L 2-3	1358	1334	17.7%	11.9%	70.4%	-4.1	3
1948-09-26	Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1312	1292	73.8%	11.8%	14.4%	+3.7	3
1948-09-26	@ Olhanense	L 0-1	1292	1312	14.4%	11.8%	73.8%	-3.7	0
1948-09-26	Lusitano VRSA	W 7-1	1649	1255	87.7%	10.3%	1.9%	+2.2	6
1948-09-26	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-7	1255	1649	1.9%	10.3%	87.7%	-2.2	1
1948-10-03	O Elvas	W 3-1	1348	1338	73.1%	11.8%	15.1%	+6.4	3
1948-10-03	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1338	1348	15.1%	11.8%	73.1%	-6.4	3
1948-10-03	Benfica	L 1-2	1252	1627	27.1%	11.7%	61.2%	-6.4	1
1948-10-03	@ Lusitano VRSA	W 2-1	1627	1252	61.2%	11.7%	27.1%	+6.4	9
1948-10-03	Braga	L 0-1	1554	1321	84.2%	11.1%	4.7%	-19.8	6
1948-10-03	@ Porto	W 1-0	1321	1554	4.7%	11.1%	84.2%	+19.8	9
1948-10-03	Estoril	W 5-3	1652	1486	81.8%	11.4%	6.8%	+2.5	9
1948-10-03	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-5	1486	1652	6.8%	11.4%	81.8%	-2.5	3
1948-10-03	Olhanense	D 1-1	1390	1316	77.4%	11.7%	10.9%	-3.9	4
1948-10-03	@ Sporting Covilha	D 1-1	1316	1390	10.9%	11.7%	77.4%	+3.9	4
1948-10-03	Boavista	W 3-1	1354	1245	79.3%	11.6%	9.1%	+3.9	6
1948-10-03	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-3	1245	1354	9.1%	11.6%	79.3%	-3.9	0
1948-10-03	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1289	1539	43.4%	11.9%	44.6%	-9.8	0
1948-10-03	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1539	1289	44.6%	11.9%	43.4%	+9.8	4
1948-10-10	Sporting Covilha	W 6-1	1548	1386	81.7%	11.4%	6.9%	+6.7	7
1948-10-10	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-6	1386	1548	6.9%	11.4%	81.7%	-6.7	4
1948-10-10	Vitoria Setubal	W 6-0	1634	1279	87.0%	10.6%	2.4%	+3.4	12
1948-10-10	@ Benfica	L 0-6	1279	1634	2.4%	10.6%	87.0%	-3.3	0
1948-10-10	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 3-3	1241	1355	61.3%	12.0%	26.7%	-1.2	1
1948-10-10	@ Boavista	D 3-3	1355	1241	26.7%	12.0%	61.3%	+1.2	4
1948-10-10	Vitoria Guimaraes	D 1-1	1340	1358	70.9%	11.9%	17.2%	-3.1	10
1948-10-10	@ Braga	D 1-1	1358	1340	17.2%	11.9%	70.9%	+3.1	7
1948-10-10	Lusitano VRSA	D 2-2	1484	1246	84.3%	11.1%	4.6%	-3.6	4
1948-10-10	@ Estoril	D 2-2	1246	1484	4.6%	11.1%	84.3%	+3.6	2
1948-10-10	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-4	1332	1654	33.6%	11.8%	54.6%	-7.2	3
1948-10-10	@ O Elvas	W 4-3	1654	1332	54.6%	11.8%	33.6%	+7.2	12
1948-10-10	Porto	L 1-2	1320	1534	48.5%	12.0%	39.6%	-10.8	4
1948-10-10	@ Olhanense	W 2-1	1534	1320	39.6%	12.0%	48.5%	+10.8	9
1948-10-17	Braga	W 4-3	1356	1337	73.8%	11.8%	14.4%	+3.3	7
1948-10-17	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 3-4	1337	1356	14.4%	11.8%	73.8%	-3.3	10
1948-10-17	O Elvas	D 2-2	1480	1325	81.4%	11.4%	7.2%	-3.3	5
1948-10-17	@ Estoril	D 2-2	1325	1480	7.2%	11.4%	81.4%	+3.3	4
1948-10-17	Vitoria Setubal	L 0-1	1250	1276	70.2%	11.9%	17.9%	-16.4	2
1948-10-17	@ Lusitano VRSA	W 1-0	1276	1250	17.9%	11.9%	70.2%	+16.4	3
1948-10-17	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-0	1545	1555	71.5%	11.8%	16.6%	+8.1	12
1948-10-17	@ Porto	L 0-2	1555	1545	16.6%	11.8%	71.5%	-8.1	7
1948-10-17	Boavista	W 12-1	1661	1239	88.1%	10.2%	1.7%	+3.4	15
1948-10-17	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-12	1239	1661	1.7%	10.2%	88.1%	-3.4	1
1948-10-17	Benfica	W 1-0	1379	1637	42.3%	11.9%	45.7%	+10.9	7
1948-10-17	@ Sporting Covilha	L 0-1	1637	1379	45.7%	11.9%	42.3%	-10.9	12
1948-10-17	Olhanense	W 1-0	1361	1309	76.0%	11.7%	12.2%	+3.2	10
1948-10-17	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-1	1309	1361	12.2%	11.7%	76.0%	-3.2	4
1948-10-24	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-0	1547	1364	82.5%	11.3%	6.2%	+4.5	10
1948-10-24	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1364	1547	6.2%	11.3%	82.5%	-4.5	10
1948-10-24	Porto	D 1-1	1626	1553	77.3%	11.7%	11.0%	-3.9	13
1948-10-24	@ Benfica	D 1-1	1553	1626	11.0%	11.7%	77.3%	+3.9	13
1948-10-24	Estoril	L 1-2	1236	1477	44.8%	11.9%	43.3%	-10.0	1
1948-10-24	@ Boavista	W 2-1	1477	1236	43.3%	11.9%	44.8%	+10.0	8
1948-10-24	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1334	1665	32.5%	11.8%	55.7%	+13.0	13
1948-10-24	@ Braga	L 0-1	1665	1334	55.7%	11.8%	32.5%	-13.0	15
1948-10-24	Lusitano VRSA	D 1-1	1328	1233	78.6%	11.6%	9.8%	-4.1	5
1948-10-24	@ O Elvas	D 1-1	1233	1328	9.8%	11.6%	78.6%	+4.1	3
1948-10-24	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 4-1	1306	1359	67.7%	11.9%	20.4%	+12.0	7
1948-10-24	@ Olhanense	L 1-4	1359	1306	20.4%	11.9%	67.7%	-12.0	7
1948-10-24	Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1292	1390	63.1%	11.9%	24.9%	+5.9	6
1948-10-24	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1390	1292	24.9%	11.9%	63.1%	-5.9	7
1948-10-31	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-7	1347	1552	49.9%	12.0%	38.2%	-50.7	7
1948-10-31	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 7-1	1552	1347	38.2%	12.0%	49.9%	+50.7	13
1948-10-31	Braga	W 6-1	1487	1347	80.8%	11.5%	7.8%	+7.5	11
1948-10-31	@ Estoril	L 1-6	1347	1487	7.8%	11.5%	80.8%	-7.5	13
1948-10-31	Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1237	1384	57.4%	12.0%	30.6%	+7.2	6
1948-10-31	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 1-2	1384	1237	30.6%	12.0%	57.4%	-7.2	7
1948-10-31	Boavista	W 3-0	1324	1226	78.7%	11.6%	9.7%	+7.0	8
1948-10-31	@ O Elvas	L 0-3	1226	1324	9.7%	11.6%	78.7%	-7.0	1
1948-10-31	Vitoria Setubal	W 6-1	1557	1298	84.9%	11.0%	4.1%	+4.0	16
1948-10-31	@ Porto	L 1-6	1298	1557	4.1%	11.0%	84.9%	-4.0	6
1948-10-31	Olhanense	W 3-1	1652	1318	86.6%	10.7%	2.7%	+1.2	18
1948-10-31	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1318	1652	2.7%	10.7%	86.6%	-1.2	7
1948-10-31	Benfica	D 3-3	1360	1622	41.6%	11.9%	46.4%	+0.2	11
1948-10-31	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 3-3	1622	1360	46.4%	11.9%	41.6%	-0.2	14
1948-11-07	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1602	1653	68.0%	11.9%	20.1%	-36.6	13
1948-11-07	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 4-1	1653	1602	20.1%	11.9%	68.0%	+36.6	21
1948-11-07	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-1	1622	1296	86.4%	10.7%	2.9%	+1.2	17
1948-11-07	@ Benfica	L 1-3	1296	1622	2.9%	10.7%	86.4%	-1.2	7
1948-11-07	Lusitano VRSA	W 6-1	1219	1244	70.3%	11.9%	17.9%	+16.8	4
1948-11-07	@ Boavista	L 1-6	1244	1219	17.9%	11.9%	70.3%	-16.8	6
1948-11-07	O Elvas	D 1-1	1340	1331	73.0%	11.8%	15.2%	-3.4	14
1948-11-07	@ Braga	D 1-1	1331	1340	15.2%	11.8%	73.0%	+3.4	9
1948-11-07	Estoril	L 2-7	1317	1494	53.5%	12.0%	34.5%	-38.3	7
1948-11-07	@ Olhanense	W 7-2	1494	1317	34.5%	12.0%	53.5%	+38.3	14
1948-11-07	Porto	L 1-2	1377	1561	52.6%	12.0%	35.4%	-11.7	7
1948-11-07	@ Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1561	1377	35.4%	12.0%	52.6%	+11.6	19
1948-11-07	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-1	1294	1360	66.5%	11.9%	21.6%	+9.0	9
1948-11-07	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-3	1360	1294	21.6%	11.9%	66.5%	-9.0	11
1948-11-14	Vitoria Setubal	W 5-1	1295	1303	71.7%	11.8%	16.4%	+12.7	10
1948-11-14	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1303	1295	16.4%	11.8%	71.7%	-12.7	9
1948-11-14	Braga	W 2-1	1236	1336	62.9%	11.9%	25.1%	+6.0	7
1948-11-14	@ Boavista	L 1-2	1336	1236	25.1%	11.9%	62.9%	-6.0	14
1948-11-14	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-0	1533	1566	69.6%	11.9%	18.5%	+9.0	17
1948-11-14	@ Estoril	L 0-2	1566	1533	18.5%	11.9%	69.6%	-9.0	13
1948-11-14	Porto	W 1-0	1228	1573	30.6%	11.8%	57.6%	+13.4	9
1948-11-14	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 0-1	1573	1228	57.6%	11.8%	30.6%	-13.4	19
1948-11-14	Olhanense	D 2-2	1334	1278	76.3%	11.7%	12.0%	-2.8	10
1948-11-14	@ O Elvas	D 2-2	1278	1334	12.0%	11.7%	76.3%	+2.8	8
1948-11-14	Benfica	W 5-1	1689	1623	76.9%	11.7%	11.4%	+8.9	24
1948-11-14	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1623	1689	11.4%	11.7%	76.9%	-8.9	17
1948-11-14	Sporting Covilha	W 1-0	1351	1366	71.2%	11.8%	17.0%	+4.4	14
1948-11-14	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-1	1366	1351	17.0%	11.8%	71.2%	-4.4	7
1948-11-21	O Elvas	W 5-2	1557	1332	83.9%	11.2%	4.9%	+2.6	16
1948-11-21	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-5	1332	1557	4.9%	11.2%	83.9%	-2.6	10
1948-11-21	Estoril	L 1-2	1615	1542	77.3%	11.7%	11.0%	-17.1	17
1948-11-21	@ Benfica	W 2-1	1542	1615	11.0%	11.7%	77.3%	+17.1	20
1948-11-21	Lusitano VRSA	W 3-1	1330	1241	78.3%	11.6%	10.1%	+4.3	17
1948-11-21	@ Braga	L 1-3	1241	1330	10.1%	11.6%	78.3%	-4.4	9
1948-11-21	Boavista	W 10-3	1281	1242	75.2%	11.8%	13.0%	+12.4	11
1948-11-21	@ Olhanense	L 3-10	1242	1281	13.0%	11.8%	75.2%	-12.4	7
1948-11-21	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-2	1559	1355	83.2%	11.2%	5.5%	+2.1	22
1948-11-21	@ Porto	L 2-4	1355	1559	5.5%	11.2%	83.2%	-2.1	14
1948-11-21	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1361	1308	76.1%	11.7%	12.2%	-16.8	7
1948-11-21	@ Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1308	1361	12.2%	11.7%	76.1%	+16.8	13
1948-11-21	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1290	1698	23.5%	11.7%	64.9%	-5.9	9
1948-11-21	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1698	1290	64.9%	11.7%	23.5%	+5.9	27
1948-11-28	Porto	W 3-2	1325	1561	45.3%	11.9%	42.7%	+9.1	16
1948-11-28	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1561	1325	42.7%	11.9%	45.3%	-9.1	22
1948-11-28	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1229	1559	32.6%	11.8%	55.6%	+1.3	8
1948-11-28	@ Boavista	D 1-1	1559	1229	55.6%	11.8%	32.6%	-1.3	17
1948-11-28	Olhanense	L 0-1	1334	1294	75.3%	11.7%	12.9%	-17.6	17
1948-11-28	@ Braga	W 1-0	1294	1334	12.9%	11.7%	75.3%	+17.6	14
1948-11-28	Vitoria Setubal	W 5-0	1559	1284	85.3%	10.9%	3.8%	+4.4	23
1948-11-28	@ Estoril	L 0-5	1284	1559	3.8%	10.9%	85.3%	-4.4	9
1948-11-28	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 1-0	1237	1353	61.1%	12.0%	27.0%	+6.8	12
1948-11-28	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 0-1	1353	1237	27.0%	12.0%	61.1%	-6.8	14
1948-11-28	Benfica	L 0-1	1329	1597	40.8%	11.9%	47.3%	-9.8	10
1948-11-28	@ O Elvas	W 1-0	1597	1329	47.3%	11.9%	40.8%	+9.8	20
1948-11-28	Sporting Covilha	W 7-2	1704	1344	87.1%	10.5%	2.4%	+1.9	30
1948-11-28	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-7	1344	1704	2.4%	10.5%	87.1%	-1.9	7
1948-12-05	Braga	W 5-0	1558	1317	84.4%	11.1%	4.5%	+5.3	20
1948-12-05	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1317	1558	4.5%	11.1%	84.4%	-5.3	17
1948-12-05	Boavista	W 7-0	1607	1231	87.4%	10.4%	2.2%	+3.4	23
1948-12-05	@ Benfica	L 0-7	1231	1607	2.2%	10.4%	87.4%	-3.5	8
1948-12-05	Olhanense	W 2-1	1243	1311	66.3%	11.9%	21.8%	+5.2	15
1948-12-05	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 1-2	1311	1243	21.8%	11.9%	66.3%	-5.2	14
1948-12-05	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1552	1706	56.5%	12.0%	31.5%	+7.8	25
1948-12-05	@ Porto	L 0-1	1706	1552	31.5%	12.0%	56.5%	-7.8	30
1948-12-05	Estoril	L 1-3	1343	1563	47.6%	12.0%	40.4%	-18.4	7
1948-12-05	@ Sporting Covilha	W 3-1	1563	1343	40.4%	12.0%	47.6%	+18.4	26
1948-12-05	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1346	1334	73.3%	11.8%	14.9%	-3.4	15
1948-12-05	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 1-1	1334	1346	14.9%	11.8%	73.3%	+3.4	17
1948-12-05	O Elvas	D 1-1	1280	1319	69.0%	11.9%	19.1%	-2.9	10
1948-12-05	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 1-1	1319	1280	19.1%	11.9%	69.0%	+2.9	11
1948-12-12	Lusitano VRSA	W 3-0	1337	1249	78.2%	11.6%	10.2%	+7.3	20
1948-12-12	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1249	1337	10.2%	11.6%	78.2%	-7.3	15
1948-12-12	Vitoria Setubal	D 1-1	1227	1277	68.0%	11.9%	20.0%	-2.8	9
1948-12-12	@ Boavista	D 1-1	1277	1227	20.0%	11.9%	68.0%	+2.8	11
1948-12-12	Benfica	L 3-4	1312	1611	36.6%	11.9%	51.5%	-7.8	17
1948-12-12	@ Braga	W 4-3	1611	1312	51.5%	11.9%	36.6%	+7.8	26
1948-12-12	Porto	W 5-1	1581	1560	74.0%	11.8%	14.2%	+11.1	29
1948-12-12	@ Estoril	L 1-5	1560	1581	14.2%	11.8%	74.0%	-11.1	25
1948-12-12	Sporting Covilha	L 0-1	1322	1324	72.2%	11.8%	16.0%	-16.8	11
1948-12-12	@ O Elvas	W 1-0	1324	1322	16.0%	11.8%	72.2%	+16.8	10
1948-12-12	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-3	1306	1563	42.4%	11.9%	45.7%	-9.1	14
1948-12-12	@ Olhanense	W 3-2	1563	1306	45.7%	11.9%	42.4%	+9.1	23
1948-12-12	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-0	1698	1343	87.0%	10.6%	2.4%	+1.8	33
1948-12-12	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1343	1698	2.4%	10.6%	87.0%	-1.8	15
1948-12-20	Lusitano VRSA	W 3-1	1572	1241	86.6%	10.7%	2.8%	+1.2	26
1948-12-20	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1241	1572	2.8%	10.7%	86.6%	-1.2	15
1948-12-20	Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1225	1341	61.1%	12.0%	27.0%	+6.4	12
1948-12-20	@ Boavista	L 1-2	1341	1225	27.0%	12.0%	61.1%	-6.4	10
1948-12-20	Vitoria Setubal	W 2-0	1304	1280	74.2%	11.8%	14.1%	+6.9	20
1948-12-20	@ Braga	L 0-2	1280	1304	14.1%	11.8%	74.2%	-6.9	11
1948-12-20	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-2	1593	1341	84.7%	11.1%	4.3%	+1.7	32
1948-12-20	@ Estoril	L 2-4	1341	1593	4.3%	11.1%	84.7%	-1.7	15
1948-12-20	Porto	W 2-0	1305	1549	44.3%	11.9%	43.7%	+19.7	14
1948-12-20	@ O Elvas	L 0-2	1549	1305	43.7%	11.9%	44.3%	-19.7	25
1948-12-25	Benfica	W 2-1	1297	1618	33.6%	11.8%	54.5%	+12.0	17
1948-12-25	@ Olhanense	L 1-2	1618	1297	54.5%	11.8%	33.6%	-12.0	26
1948-12-25	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 5-1	1700	1345	87.0%	10.6%	2.4%	+1.9	36
1948-12-25	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1345	1700	2.4%	10.6%	87.0%	-1.9	20
1949-01-02	Estoril	D 3-3	1343	1594	43.2%	11.9%	44.9%	+0.1	21
1949-01-02	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 3-3	1594	1343	44.9%	11.9%	43.2%	-0.1	33
1949-01-02	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-2	1606	1574	74.8%	11.8%	13.5%	-33.0	26
1949-01-02	@ Benfica	W 2-0	1574	1606	13.5%	11.8%	74.8%	+33.0	29
1949-01-02	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1240	1702	18.4%	11.5%	70.1%	-8.9	15
1949-01-02	@ Lusitano VRSA	W 2-0	1702	1240	70.1%	11.5%	18.4%	+8.9	39
1949-01-02	Boavista	W 3-1	1529	1231	85.9%	10.8%	3.3%	+1.4	28
1949-01-02	@ Porto	L 1-3	1231	1529	3.3%	10.8%	85.9%	-1.4	12
1949-01-02	O Elvas	W 3-0	1340	1325	73.5%	11.8%	14.7%	+10.5	18
1949-01-02	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-3	1325	1340	14.7%	11.8%	73.5%	-10.5	14
1949-01-02	Olhanense	D 2-2	1273	1309	69.3%	11.9%	18.8%	-2.2	12
1949-01-02	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 2-2	1309	1273	18.8%	11.9%	69.3%	+2.2	18
1949-01-09	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1607	1271	86.7%	10.7%	2.7%	+1.2	32
1949-01-09	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1271	1607	2.7%	10.7%	86.7%	-1.2	12
1949-01-09	Lusitano VRSA	W 2-1	1574	1231	86.8%	10.6%	2.6%	+0.7	29
1949-01-09	@ Benfica	L 1-2	1231	1574	2.6%	10.6%	86.8%	-0.6	15
1949-01-09	Vitoria Guimaraes	D 1-1	1229	1350	60.6%	12.0%	27.5%	-1.9	13
1949-01-09	@ Boavista	D 1-1	1350	1229	27.5%	12.0%	60.6%	+1.9	19
1949-01-09	Porto	W 2-0	1311	1531	47.7%	12.0%	40.4%	+18.3	23
1949-01-09	@ Braga	L 0-2	1531	1311	40.4%	12.0%	47.7%	-18.3	28
1949-01-09	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-4	1594	1711	61.0%	12.0%	27.0%	-20.8	33
1949-01-09	@ Estoril	W 4-2	1711	1594	27.0%	12.0%	61.0%	+20.8	42
1949-01-09	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 7-0	1314	1343	70.0%	11.9%	18.1%	+28.3	17
1949-01-09	@ O Elvas	L 0-7	1343	1314	18.1%	11.9%	70.0%	-28.3	21
1949-01-09	Sporting Covilha	W 4-0	1311	1335	70.4%	11.9%	17.7%	+16.3	21
1949-01-09	@ Olhanense	L 0-4	1335	1311	17.7%	11.9%	70.4%	-16.3	10
1949-01-12	Braga	W 2-0	1318	1329	71.5%	11.8%	16.7%	+8.1	13
1949-01-12	@ Sporting Covilha	L 0-2	1329	1318	16.7%	11.8%	71.5%	-8.1	23
1949-01-16	Boavista	D 1-1	1314	1228	78.1%	11.6%	10.2%	-4.0	22
1949-01-16	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1228	1314	10.2%	11.6%	78.1%	+4.0	14
1949-01-16	Estoril	D 1-1	1231	1573	30.9%	11.8%	57.3%	+1.5	16
1949-01-16	@ Lusitano VRSA	D 1-1	1573	1231	57.3%	11.8%	30.9%	-1.5	34
1949-01-16	Olhanense	W 2-0	1512	1328	82.6%	11.3%	6.1%	+3.1	31
1949-01-16	@ Porto	L 0-2	1328	1512	6.1%	11.3%	82.6%	-3.1	21
1949-01-16	O Elvas	W 7-1	1732	1343	87.6%	10.4%	2.0%	+2.3	45
1949-01-16	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-7	1343	1732	2.0%	10.4%	87.6%	-2.3	17
1949-01-16	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1326	1608	39.0%	11.9%	49.1%	-8.9	13
1949-01-16	@ Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1608	1326	49.1%	11.9%	39.0%	+8.9	35
1949-01-16	Braga	W 3-2	1352	1321	74.7%	11.8%	13.6%	+3.2	22
1949-01-16	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-3	1321	1352	13.6%	11.8%	74.7%	-3.2	23
1949-01-16	Benfica	L 1-2	1270	1574	35.9%	11.9%	52.3%	-8.2	12
1949-01-16	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1574	1270	52.3%	11.9%	35.9%	+8.2	32
1949-01-23	Porto	W 3-1	1617	1516	78.9%	11.6%	9.5%	+4.1	38
1949-01-23	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1516	1617	9.5%	11.6%	78.9%	-4.1	31
1949-01-23	Sporting Covilha	W 6-1	1582	1318	85.0%	11.0%	4.0%	+3.8	35
1949-01-23	@ Benfica	L 1-6	1318	1582	4.0%	11.0%	85.0%	-3.8	13
1949-01-23	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1232	1734	15.2%	11.3%	73.5%	+3.8	15
1949-01-23	@ Boavista	D 0-0	1734	1232	73.5%	11.3%	15.2%	-3.8	46
1949-01-23	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1318	1310	72.9%	11.8%	15.3%	+3.7	26
1949-01-23	@ Braga	L 1-2	1310	1318	15.3%	11.8%	72.9%	-3.7	22
1949-01-23	Estoril	W 4-2	1340	1572	46.1%	11.9%	42.0%	+14.7	20
1949-01-23	@ O Elvas	L 2-4	1572	1340	42.0%	11.9%	46.1%	-14.7	34
1949-01-23	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-0	1324	1355	69.8%	11.9%	18.3%	+8.9	24
1949-01-23	@ Olhanense	L 0-2	1355	1324	18.3%	11.9%	69.8%	-8.9	22
1949-01-23	Lusitano VRSA	W 2-1	1261	1232	74.5%	11.8%	13.7%	+3.4	15
1949-01-23	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1232	1261	13.7%	11.8%	74.5%	-3.4	16
1949-01-30	Olhanense	D 1-1	1307	1333	70.1%	11.9%	18.0%	-3.0	23
1949-01-30	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1333	1307	18.0%	11.9%	70.1%	+3.0	25
1949-01-30	Boavista	W 8-1	1557	1235	86.4%	10.7%	2.9%	+3.8	37
1949-01-30	@ Estoril	L 1-8	1235	1557	2.9%	10.7%	86.4%	-3.8	15
1949-01-30	O Elvas	W 2-1	1229	1355	59.9%	12.0%	28.1%	+6.6	19
1949-01-30	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 1-2	1355	1229	28.1%	12.0%	59.9%	-6.6	20
1949-01-30	Benfica	W 4-3	1511	1586	65.6%	11.9%	22.5%	+5.0	34
1949-01-30	@ Porto	L 3-4	1586	1511	22.5%	11.9%	65.6%	-5.0	35
1949-01-30	Braga	W 4-0	1730	1322	87.9%	10.3%	1.8%	+1.7	49
1949-01-30	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-4	1322	1730	1.8%	10.3%	87.9%	-1.7	26
1949-01-30	Vitoria Setubal	W 6-2	1314	1265	75.9%	11.7%	12.4%	+8.2	16
1949-01-30	@ Sporting Covilha	L 2-6	1265	1314	12.4%	11.7%	75.9%	-8.2	15
1949-01-30	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1346	1621	40.0%	11.9%	48.1%	+10.7	25
1949-01-30	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1621	1346	48.1%	11.9%	40.0%	-10.7	38
1949-02-06	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 4-0	1610	1304	86.0%	10.8%	3.2%	+3.0	41
1949-02-06	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-4	1304	1610	3.2%	10.8%	86.0%	-3.0	23
1949-02-06	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-0	1581	1357	83.9%	11.2%	5.0%	+5.8	38
1949-02-06	@ Benfica	L 0-5	1357	1581	5.0%	11.2%	83.9%	-5.8	25
1949-02-06	O Elvas	L 1-2	1232	1348	61.0%	12.0%	27.0%	-13.4	15
1949-02-06	@ Boavista	W 2-1	1348	1232	27.0%	12.0%	61.0%	+13.4	23
1949-02-06	Estoril	W 2-1	1320	1561	44.7%	11.9%	43.4%	+9.8	29
1949-02-06	@ Braga	L 1-2	1561	1320	43.4%	11.9%	44.7%	-9.8	37
1949-02-06	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-7	1336	1732	24.8%	11.7%	63.5%	-14.4	25
1949-02-06	@ Olhanense	W 7-3	1732	1336	63.5%	11.7%	24.8%	+14.4	52
1949-02-06	Lusitano VRSA	W 3-0	1322	1235	78.1%	11.6%	10.3%	+7.4	19
1949-02-06	@ Sporting Covilha	L 0-3	1235	1322	10.3%	11.6%	78.1%	-7.4	19
1949-02-06	Porto	W 3-1	1256	1516	42.0%	11.9%	46.1%	+17.8	18
1949-02-06	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-3	1516	1256	46.1%	11.9%	42.0%	-17.8	34
1949-02-13	Benfica	L 1-2	1301	1587	38.3%	11.9%	49.8%	-8.7	23
1949-02-13	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1587	1301	49.8%	11.9%	38.3%	+8.8	41
1949-02-13	Olhanense	W 6-1	1551	1322	84.0%	11.1%	4.8%	+4.7	40
1949-02-13	@ Estoril	L 1-6	1322	1551	4.8%	11.1%	84.0%	-4.7	25
1949-02-13	Boavista	W 1-0	1228	1218	73.1%	11.8%	15.1%	+3.9	22
1949-02-13	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 0-1	1218	1228	15.1%	11.8%	73.1%	-3.9	15
1949-02-13	Braga	W 4-1	1362	1330	74.7%	11.8%	13.5%	+8.1	26
1949-02-13	@ O Elvas	L 1-4	1330	1362	13.5%	11.8%	74.7%	-8.1	29
1949-02-13	Sporting Covilha	W 4-1	1499	1329	82.0%	11.4%	6.7%	+4.1	37
1949-02-13	@ Porto	L 1-4	1329	1499	6.7%	11.4%	82.0%	-4.1	19
1949-02-13	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 5-1	1746	1613	80.5%	11.5%	8.0%	+6.3	55
1949-02-13	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1613	1746	8.0%	11.5%	80.5%	-6.3	41
1949-02-13	Vitoria Setubal	W 5-0	1351	1274	77.6%	11.7%	10.8%	+12.5	28
1949-02-13	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-5	1274	1351	10.8%	11.7%	77.6%	-12.5	18
1949-02-20	Estoril	W 6-2	1607	1556	76.0%	11.7%	12.3%	+8.2	44
1949-02-20	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-6	1556	1607	12.3%	11.7%	76.0%	-8.2	40
1949-02-20	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 3-3	1596	1753	56.2%	12.0%	31.9%	-0.8	42
1949-02-20	@ Benfica	D 3-3	1753	1596	31.9%	12.0%	56.2%	+0.8	56
1949-02-20	Boavista	W 4-2	1321	1214	79.2%	11.6%	9.2%	+3.5	32
1949-02-20	@ Braga	L 2-4	1214	1321	9.2%	11.6%	79.2%	-3.5	15
1949-02-20	O Elvas	W 4-1	1317	1370	67.8%	11.9%	20.3%	+12.0	28
1949-02-20	@ Olhanense	L 1-4	1370	1317	20.3%	11.9%	67.8%	-12.0	26
1949-02-20	Lusitano VRSA	W 3-0	1503	1232	85.2%	11.0%	3.9%	+2.8	40
1949-02-20	@ Porto	L 0-3	1232	1503	3.9%	11.0%	85.2%	-2.8	22
1949-02-20	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 6-2	1325	1364	69.1%	11.9%	19.0%	+12.3	22
1949-02-20	@ Sporting Covilha	L 2-6	1364	1325	19.0%	11.9%	69.1%	-12.3	28
1949-02-20	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 5-1	1262	1292	69.8%	11.9%	18.3%	+14.0	21
1949-02-20	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-5	1292	1262	18.3%	11.9%	69.8%	-14.0	23
1949-03-06	Sporting Covilha	W 5-1	1278	1338	67.1%	11.9%	21.0%	+16.0	26
1949-03-06	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1338	1278	21.0%	11.9%	67.1%	-16.0	22
1949-03-06	Olhanense	W 5-1	1211	1329	60.8%	12.0%	27.2%	+20.3	18
1949-03-06	@ Boavista	L 1-5	1329	1211	27.2%	12.0%	60.8%	-20.3	28
1949-03-06	Benfica	L 1-3	1548	1595	68.3%	11.9%	19.8%	-26.0	40
1949-03-06	@ Estoril	W 3-1	1595	1548	19.8%	11.9%	68.3%	+26.0	45
1949-03-06	Braga	W 2-0	1229	1325	63.4%	11.9%	24.7%	+11.7	25
1949-03-06	@ Lusitano VRSA	L 0-2	1325	1229	24.7%	11.9%	63.4%	-11.8	32
1949-03-06	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1358	1615	42.5%	11.9%	45.6%	+0.2	27
1949-03-06	@ O Elvas	D 1-1	1615	1358	45.6%	11.9%	42.5%	-0.2	45
1949-03-06	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1753	1276	88.9%	9.9%	1.2%	+0.5	59
1949-03-06	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1276	1753	1.2%	9.9%	88.9%	-0.5	21
1949-03-06	Porto	W 2-1	1351	1505	56.5%	12.0%	31.5%	+7.3	31
1949-03-06	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1505	1351	31.5%	12.0%	56.5%	-7.3	40
1949-03-13	Braga	W 3-2	1309	1313	72.0%	11.8%	16.2%	+3.7	31
1949-03-13	@ Olhanense	L 2-3	1313	1309	16.2%	11.8%	72.0%	-3.7	32
1949-03-13	Lusitano VRSA	W 5-0	1359	1241	79.7%	11.5%	8.7%	+10.2	34
1949-03-13	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-5	1241	1359	8.7%	11.5%	79.7%	-10.2	25
1949-03-27	Boavista	W 5-0	1615	1231	87.5%	10.4%	2.1%	+2.4	48
1949-03-27	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1231	1615	2.1%	10.4%	87.5%	-2.4	18
1949-03-27	O Elvas	W 6-0	1621	1358	85.0%	11.0%	4.0%	+5.6	48
1949-03-27	@ Benfica	L 0-6	1358	1621	4.0%	11.0%	85.0%	-5.6	27
1949-03-27	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-0	1498	1294	83.2%	11.2%	5.5%	+4.0	43
1949-03-27	@ Porto	L 0-3	1294	1498	5.5%	11.2%	83.2%	-4.0	26
1949-03-27	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 5-2	1322	1754	21.1%	11.6%	67.3%	+31.3	25
1949-03-27	@ Sporting Covilha	L 2-5	1754	1322	67.3%	11.6%	21.1%	-31.3	59
1949-03-27	Estoril	W 2-0	1275	1522	43.9%	11.9%	44.1%	+19.8	24
1949-03-27	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1522	1275	44.1%	11.9%	43.9%	-19.8	40
1949-04-03	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-2	1290	1369	65.2%	11.9%	22.9%	-14.3	26
1949-04-03	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1369	1290	22.9%	11.9%	65.2%	+14.3	37
1949-04-03	Benfica	L 1-4	1229	1627	24.6%	11.7%	63.8%	-14.3	18
1949-04-03	@ Boavista	W 4-1	1627	1229	63.8%	11.7%	24.6%	+14.2	51
1949-04-03	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-1	1310	1617	35.5%	11.9%	52.7%	+20.2	35
1949-04-03	@ Braga	L 1-3	1617	1310	52.7%	11.9%	35.5%	-20.1	48
1949-04-03	Sporting Covilha	D 2-2	1502	1353	81.2%	11.4%	7.4%	-3.3	41
1949-04-03	@ Estoril	D 2-2	1353	1502	7.4%	11.4%	81.2%	+3.3	26
1949-04-03	Vitoria Setubal	D 3-3	1353	1295	76.4%	11.7%	11.9%	-2.4	28
1949-04-03	@ O Elvas	D 3-3	1295	1353	11.9%	11.7%	76.4%	+2.4	25
1949-04-03	Lusitano VRSA	W 1-0	1313	1231	77.9%	11.6%	10.5%	+2.8	34
1949-04-03	@ Olhanense	L 0-1	1231	1313	10.5%	11.6%	77.9%	-2.8	25
1949-04-03	Porto	L 1-2	1723	1502	83.8%	11.2%	5.1%	-18.5	59
1949-04-03	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1502	1723	5.1%	11.2%	83.8%	+18.5	46
1949-04-10	Olhanense	W 2-1	1597	1316	85.5%	10.9%	3.6%	+0.9	51
1949-04-10	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1316	1597	3.6%	10.9%	85.5%	-0.9	34
1949-04-10	Braga	W 4-0	1641	1330	86.1%	10.8%	3.1%	+2.9	54
1949-04-10	@ Benfica	L 0-4	1330	1641	3.1%	10.8%	86.1%	-2.9	35
1949-04-10	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1228	1276	68.2%	11.9%	19.8%	-15.9	25
1949-04-10	@ Lusitano VRSA	W 1-0	1276	1228	19.8%	11.9%	68.2%	+15.9	29
1949-04-10	Estoril	W 2-1	1521	1499	74.0%	11.8%	14.2%	+3.5	49
1949-04-10	@ Porto	L 1-2	1499	1521	14.2%	11.8%	74.0%	-3.5	41
1949-04-10	O Elvas	W 5-0	1356	1350	72.8%	11.8%	15.4%	+17.6	29
1949-04-10	@ Sporting Covilha	L 0-5	1350	1356	15.4%	11.8%	72.8%	-17.6	28
1949-04-10	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1383	1704	33.7%	11.8%	54.5%	-13.5	37
1949-04-10	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-1	1704	1383	54.5%	11.8%	33.7%	+13.5	62
1949-04-10	Boavista	W 5-0	1297	1214	77.9%	11.6%	10.4%	+12.1	28
1949-04-10	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-5	1214	1297	10.4%	11.6%	77.9%	-12.1	18

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1948-10-03	4.71%	Braga	1321	1	@ Porto	1554	0
2	1949-04-03	5.05%	Porto	1502	2	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1723	1
3	1948-11-21	11.00%	Estoril	1542	2	@ Benfica	1615	1
4	1948-11-21	12.15%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	1308	2	@ Sporting Covilha	1361	1
5	1948-11-28	12.94%	Olhanense	1294	1	@ Braga	1334	0
6	1949-01-02	13.46%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1574	2	@ Benfica	1606	0
7	1948-09-19	15.11%	Braga	1299	2	@ Vitoria Setubal	1309	1
8	1948-12-12	15.99%	Sporting Covilha	1324	1	@ O Elvas	1322	0
9	1948-10-17	17.94%	Vitoria Setubal	1276	1	@ Lusitano VRSA	1250	0
10	1949-03-06	19.81%	Benfica	1595	3	@ Estoril	1548	1
11	1949-04-10	19.84%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	1276	1	@ Lusitano VRSA	1228	0
12	1948-11-07	20.12%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1653	4	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1602	1
13	1948-09-26	20.76%	Benfica	1612	1	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1554	0
14	1949-03-27	21.07%	@ Sporting Covilha	1322	5	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1754	2
15	1949-04-03	22.90%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1369	2	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	1290	1
16	1949-01-09	27.01%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1711	4	@ Estoril	1594	2
17	1949-02-06	27.02%	O Elvas	1348	2	@ Boavista	1232	1
18	1948-11-14	30.64%	@ Lusitano VRSA	1228	1	Porto	1573	0
19	1948-10-24	32.45%	@ Braga	1334	1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1665	0
20	1948-12-25	33.64%	@ Olhanense	1297	2	Benfica	1618	1
21	1948-11-07	34.54%	Estoril	1494	7	@ Olhanense	1317	2
22	1948-11-07	35.37%	Porto	1561	2	@ Sporting Covilha	1377	1
23	1949-04-03	35.46%	@ Braga	1310	3	Os Belenenses (1st)	1617	1
24	1948-10-31	38.16%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1552	7	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	1347	1
25	1948-10-10	39.56%	Porto	1534	2	@ Olhanense	1320	1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1948-10-31	50.74	Os Belenenses (1st)	7	1552	38.16%	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	1	1347	49.87%
2	1948-11-07	38.29	Estoril	7	1494	34.54%	@ Olhanense	2	1317	53.49%
3	1948-11-07	36.59	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	1653	20.12%	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1602	67.97%
4	1949-01-02	32.96	Os Belenenses (1st)	2	1574	13.46%	@ Benfica	0	1606	74.78%
5	1949-03-27	31.29	@ Sporting Covilha	5	1322	21.07%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	2	1754	67.35%
6	1948-09-26	31.19	Porto	5	1523	44.21%	@ Boavista	1	1276	43.85%
7	1948-09-19	29.31	Sporting Clube de Portugal	3	1620	43.05%	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	0	1381	45.01%
8	1949-01-09	28.30	@ O Elvas	7	1314	69.99%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	0	1343	18.13%
9	1949-03-06	26.00	Benfica	3	1595	19.81%	@ Estoril	1	1548	68.29%
10	1949-01-09	20.78	Sporting Clube de Portugal	4	1711	27.01%	@ Estoril	2	1594	61.02%
11	1949-03-06	20.32	@ Boavista	5	1211	60.81%	Olhanense	1	1329	27.23%
12	1949-04-03	20.15	@ Braga	3	1310	35.46%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1	1617	52.67%
13	1949-03-27	19.83	@ Vitoria Setubal	2	1275	43.94%	Estoril	0	1522	44.12%
14	1948-10-03	19.75	Braga	1	1321	4.71%	@ Porto	0	1554	84.16%
15	1948-12-20	19.68	@ O Elvas	2	1305	44.31%	Porto	0	1549	43.74%
16	1949-04-03	18.53	Porto	2	1502	5.05%	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	1	1723	83.77%
17	1948-09-19	18.47	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	4	1340	55.58%	Estoril	1	1501	32.45%
18	1948-12-05	18.39	Estoril	3	1563	40.42%	@ Sporting Covilha	1	1343	47.62%
19	1949-01-09	18.33	@ Braga	2	1311	47.69%	Porto	0	1531	40.35%
20	1949-02-06	17.84	@ Vitoria Setubal	3	1256	42.02%	Porto	1	1516	46.06%
21	1948-11-28	17.61	Olhanense	1	1294	12.94%	@ Braga	0	1334	75.32%
22	1949-04-10	17.60	@ Sporting Covilha	5	1356	72.81%	O Elvas	0	1350	15.37%
23	1948-11-21	17.07	Estoril	2	1542	11.00%	@ Benfica	1	1615	77.34%
24	1948-12-12	16.85	Sporting Covilha	1	1324	15.99%	@ O Elvas	0	1322	72.18%
25	1948-11-07	16.82	@ Boavista	6	1219	70.26%	Lusitano VRSA	1	1244	17.87%