1952-53 Primeira Divisão Season

182 games · 100,000 simulations

Final

Champion

Sporting Clube de Portugal

43 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Sporting Clube de Portugal

5.47 points above expected

43 points · 37.53 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Estoril

5.86 points below expected

14 points · 19.86 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

#	Team	GP	W	D	L	Pts	GF	GA	GD	SimPts	vsSim
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	26	19	5	2	43	77	22	+55	37.5	+5.47
2	Benfica	26	17	5	4	39	75	27	+48	36.5	+2.54
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	26	15	6	5	36	60	29	+31	31.4	+4.55
4	Porto	26	16	4	6	36	58	35	+23	31.7	+4.27
5	Barreirense	26	10	8	8	28	44	40	+4	26.5	+1.47
6	Vitoria Setubal	26	11	5	10	27	40	33	+7	26.9	+0.15
7	Lusitano de Evora	26	10	5	11	25	31	44	-13	29.9	-4.88
8	Sporting Covilha	26	7	6	13	20	38	54	-16	21.5	-1.51
9	Boavista	26	7	6	13	20	35	54	-19	20.8	-0.80
10	Vitoria Guimaraes	26	7	6	13	20	28	54	-26	18.0	+2.03
11	Academica de Coimbra	26	7	5	14	19	39	57	-18	21.1	-2.09
12	Atletico Clube de Portugal	26	6	7	13	19	33	52	-19	22.6	-3.65
13	Braga	26	8	2	16	18	37	58	-21	19.7	-1.69
14	Estoril	26	5	4	17	14	28	64	-36	19.9	-5.86

Form

Each team's 5-game rolling points-per-game across the season. Hot streaks push above the dashed 1.5 PPG reference line; cold spells drop below. Each team gets a distinct color; the legend below the plot lets you read off which line is which. (First 4 games of each team have no rolling window, so the lines start at game 5.)

League Race

Cumulative points across the season for each team. Highlighted teams are drawn in color (top finishers for the Title Race, bottom finishers for the Relegation Race); the rest of the league appears in light gray as context. Switch views with the buttons below.

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team	Elo	Points	Avg	Luck	Percentile	Min	5th	Q1	Median	Q3	95th	Max
Sporting Clube de Portugal	1568	43	37.53	+5.47	95.0%	28	30	35	38	41	43	46
Benfica	1530	39	36.46	+2.54	81.0%	28	30	34	37	38	41	43
Os Belenenses (1st)	1429	36	31.45	+4.55	94.0%	21	25	28	32	34	37	39
Porto	1405	36	31.73	+4.27	82.0%	23	24	29	31	35	39	42
Barreirense	1310	28	26.53	+1.47	69.0%	15	19	24	27	29	32	40
Vitoria Setubal	1305	27	26.85	+0.15	62.0%	15	18	24	26	30	34	38
Lusitano de Evora	1291	25	29.88	-4.88	16.0%	21	22	28	30	33	36	39
Vitoria Guimaraes	1178	20	17.97	+2.03	77.0%	9	13	16	18	20	23	28
Academica de Coimbra	1177	19	21.09	-2.09	31.0%	10	14	19	21	24	27	29
Boavista	1173	20	20.80	-0.80	50.0%	9	12	18	20	23	30	34
Sporting Covilha	1168	20	21.51	-1.51	33.0%	12	14	19	22	24	27	32
Braga	1166	18	19.69	-1.69	35.0%	10	11	17	20	22	26	29
Atletico Clube de Portugal	1165	19	22.65	-3.65	21.0%	13	16	20	22	26	29	32
Estoril	1117	14	19.86	-5.86	7.0%	10	14	17	20	23	27	29

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations

Team	ADC	ACDP	BAR	BEN	BOA	BRA	EST	LDE	OB(	POR	SCDP	SC	VG	VS
Academica de Coimbra	—	2-0-0 2.53	1-1-0 2.12	0-0-2 1.33	0-1-1 2.82	1-0-1 2.95	0-0-2 3.13	1-1-0 1.96	0-0-2 2.06	0-1-1 1.62	0-0-2 0.98	0-0-2 2.72	1-0-1 3.18	1-1-0 1.84
Atletico Clube de Portugal	0-0-2 3.09	—	0-2-0 2.52	0-0-2 1.23	1-0-1 3.10	1-0-1 3.21	1-1-0 3.27	0-1-1 2.21	0-1-1 1.97	1-0-1 1.78	0-0-2 1.17	0-1-1 3.22	1-1-0 3.41	1-0-1 2.34
Barreirense	0-1-1 3.49	0-2-0 3.11	—	0-1-1 1.68	1-1-0 3.33	1-0-1 3.73	2-0-0 3.60	1-0-1 2.39	0-1-1 2.32	1-0-1 2.19	1-0-1 1.45	1-1-0 3.23	1-0-1 3.68	1-1-0 2.70
Benfica	2-0-0 4.31	2-0-0 4.42	1-1-0 3.95	—	1-1-0 4.63	1-1-0 4.65	2-0-0 4.66	2-0-0 3.37	2-0-0 3.26	1-0-1 3.37	0-0-2 2.66	1-1-0 4.62	1-1-0 4.71	1-0-1 3.80
Boavista	1-1-0 2.79	1-0-1 2.52	0-1-1 2.29	0-1-1 1.03	—	0-0-2 3.12	2-0-0 2.93	1-0-1 1.83	1-0-1 1.62	0-0-2 1.79	0-2-0 0.94	1-1-0 2.62	0-0-2 3.12	0-0-2 2.05
Braga	1-0-1 2.67	1-0-1 2.41	1-0-1 1.89	0-1-1 1.01	2-0-0 2.49	—	0-0-2 2.91	0-1-1 1.67	0-0-2 1.86	0-0-2 1.65	0-0-2 0.94	1-0-1 2.53	1-0-1 2.70	1-0-1 2.18
Estoril	2-0-0 2.49	0-1-1 2.35	0-0-2 2.02	0-0-2 1.02	0-0-2 2.69	2-0-0 2.70	—	0-0-2 1.58	0-0-2 1.44	0-0-2 1.67	0-0-2 1.07	0-1-1 2.62	0-1-1 3.06	1-1-0 1.91
Lusitano de Evora	0-1-1 3.67	1-1-0 3.40	1-0-1 3.22	0-0-2 2.26	1-0-1 3.82	1-1-0 3.96	2-0-0 4.05	—	0-0-2 2.69	1-0-1 2.54	1-0-1 2.10	1-0-1 3.83	1-1-0 4.29	0-1-1 3.35
Os Belenenses (1st)	2-0-0 3.56	1-1-0 3.66	1-1-0 3.30	0-0-2 2.36	1-0-1 4.03	2-0-0 3.79	2-0-0 4.20	2-0-0 2.92	—	0-2-0 2.80	0-1-1 2.13	2-0-0 3.98	1-1-0 4.26	1-0-1 3.49
Porto	1-1-0 4.01	1-0-1 3.84	1-0-1 3.43	1-0-1 2.25	2-0-0 3.84	2-0-0 3.99	2-0-0 3.97	1-0-1 3.08	0-2-0 2.81	—	0-1-1 2.09	2-0-0 4.04	2-0-0 4.00	1-0-1 3.32
Sporting Clube de Portugal	2-0-0 4.68	2-0-0 4.48	1-0-1 4.18	2-0-0 2.96	0-2-0 4.73	2-0-0 4.72	2-0-0 4.61	1-0-1 3.53	1-1-0 3.50	1-1-0 3.54	—	1-1-0 4.69	2-0-0 4.67	2-0-0 3.92
Sporting Covilha	2-0-0 2.89	1-1-0 2.39	0-1-1 2.39	0-1-1 1.05	0-1-1 2.99	1-0-1 3.08	1-1-0 2.99	1-0-1 1.81	0-0-2 1.66	0-0-2 1.59	0-1-1 0.98	—	1-0-1 3.33	0-0-2 2.34
Vitoria Guimaraes	1-0-1 2.44	0-1-1 2.21	1-0-1 1.95	0-1-1 0.97	2-0-0 2.49	1-0-1 2.92	1-1-0 2.56	0-1-1 1.36	0-1-1 1.38	0-0-2 1.64	0-0-2 1.01	1-0-1 2.29	—	0-1-1 2.03
Vitoria Setubal	0-1-1 3.79	1-0-1 3.27	0-1-1 2.92	1-0-1 1.83	2-0-0 3.57	1-0-1 3.45	0-1-1 3.72	1-1-0 2.26	1-0-1 2.13	1-0-1 2.29	0-0-2 1.73	2-0-0 3.28	1-1-0 3.60	—

Goal Differential vs Points

Each team plotted by their final goal differential (x) and final point total (y). Teams above the broad trend (more points than their GD would suggest) were efficient at narrow wins; teams below took more lopsided losses than their results imply.

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

View:

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	5.49%	5.77%	3.57%	4.12%	3.02%	2.75%	24.73%
1	5.77%	8.79%	6.04%	4.67%	2.47%	2.20%	29.95%
2	3.57%	6.04%	5.49%	2.20%	1.10%	1.37%	19.78%
3	4.12%	4.67%	2.20%	0.55%	0.27%	0.27%	12.09%
4	3.02%	2.47%	1.10%	0.27%	—	—	6.87%
5+	2.75%	2.20%	1.37%	0.27%	—	—	6.59%
Total	24.73%	29.95%	19.78%	12.09%	6.87%	6.59%	100%

Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.71
Mean allowed	1.71
StdDev scored	1.62
StdDev allowed	1.62
Mean total goals/game	3.42
Correlation (home vs away score)	-0.189
Sample size (games)	182

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	15.38%
1	7.69%	11.54%	15.38%	7.69%	—	3.85%	46.15%
2	—	—	7.69%	—	—	11.54%	19.23%
3	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	11.54%
4	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.38%	26.92%	30.77%	7.69%	—	19.23%	100%

Academica de Coimbra — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.50
Mean allowed	2.19
StdDev scored	1.14
StdDev allowed	1.92
Mean total goals/game	3.69
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.137
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	11.54%	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	42.31%
1	—	7.69%	—	7.69%	—	—	15.38%
2	3.85%	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
3	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	11.54%
4	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	11.54%	30.77%	26.92%	19.23%	7.69%	3.85%	100%

Atletico Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.27
Mean allowed	2.00
StdDev scored	1.34
StdDev allowed	1.52
Mean total goals/game	3.27
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.098
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	30.77%
1	3.85%	15.38%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	26.92%
2	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	11.54%
3	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
4	15.38%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	19.23%
5+	—	—	3.85%	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	26.92%	38.46%	19.23%	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	100%

Barreirense — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.69
Mean allowed	1.54
StdDev scored	1.64
StdDev allowed	1.90
Mean total goals/game	3.23
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.354
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
1	—	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	15.38%
2	3.85%	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	26.92%
3	11.54%	11.54%	—	—	—	—	23.08%
4	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	7.69%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	19.23%
Total	34.62%	34.62%	23.08%	7.69%	—	—	100%

Benfica — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.88
Mean allowed	1.04
StdDev scored	2.01
StdDev allowed	0.96
Mean total goals/game	3.92
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.039
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	—	7.69%	—	3.85%	3.85%	19.23%
1	11.54%	11.54%	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	50.00%
2	—	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	15.38%
3	—	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
4	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.38%	23.08%	26.92%	15.38%	11.54%	7.69%	100%

Boavista — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.35
Mean allowed	2.08
StdDev scored	1.13
StdDev allowed	1.49
Mean total goals/game	3.42
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.111
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	—	3.85%	23.08%
1	7.69%	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	—	3.85%	30.77%
2	3.85%	11.54%	3.85%	11.54%	—	3.85%	34.62%
3	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%	3.85%
4	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.38%	26.92%	23.08%	19.23%	—	15.38%	100%

Braga — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.42
Mean allowed	2.23
StdDev scored	1.14
StdDev allowed	1.97
Mean total goals/game	3.65
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.063
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	38.46%
1	—	—	—	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	19.23%
2	3.85%	11.54%	7.69%	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	38.46%
3	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Total	15.38%	23.08%	11.54%	19.23%	19.23%	11.54%	100%

Estoril — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.08
Mean allowed	2.46
StdDev scored	0.98
StdDev allowed	1.82
Mean total goals/game	3.54
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.066
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	7.69%	—	7.69%	7.69%	3.85%	34.62%
1	11.54%	11.54%	—	7.69%	7.69%	—	38.46%
2	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
3	7.69%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	15.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	34.62%	26.92%	3.85%	15.38%	15.38%	3.85%	100%

Lusitano de Evora — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.19
Mean allowed	1.69
StdDev scored	1.30
StdDev allowed	1.85
Mean total goals/game	2.88
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.358
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
1	7.69%	19.23%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	38.46%
2	—	15.38%	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	23.08%
3	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	15.38%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	7.69%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	19.23%
Total	26.92%	46.15%	19.23%	3.85%	3.85%	—	100%

Os Belenenses (1st) — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.31
Mean allowed	1.12
StdDev scored	1.64
StdDev allowed	0.99
Mean total goals/game	3.42
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.145
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	—	—	—	7.69%	3.85%	—	11.54%
1	3.85%	15.38%	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	26.92%
2	7.69%	11.54%	—	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
3	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	15.38%
4	3.85%	7.69%	3.85%	—	—	—	15.38%
5+	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	26.92%	42.31%	11.54%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	100%

Porto — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.23
Mean allowed	1.35
StdDev scored	1.58
StdDev allowed	1.32
Mean total goals/game	3.58
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.517
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
1	11.54%	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	—	26.92%
2	7.69%	—	—	—	—	—	7.69%
3	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	26.92%
4	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	11.54%	7.69%	—	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
Total	46.15%	30.77%	15.38%	7.69%	—	—	100%

Sporting Clube de Portugal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	2.96
Mean allowed	0.85
StdDev scored	2.22
StdDev allowed	0.97
Mean total goals/game	3.81
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.040
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.54%	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	3.85%	26.92%
1	3.85%	3.85%	7.69%	11.54%	7.69%	7.69%	42.31%
2	—	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	—	11.54%
3	—	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
4	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
5+	3.85%	—	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	23.08%	15.38%	23.08%	19.23%	7.69%	11.54%	100%

Sporting Covilha — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.46
Mean allowed	2.08
StdDev scored	1.63
StdDev allowed	1.65
Mean total goals/game	3.54
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.356
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	7.69%	11.54%	3.85%	3.85%	15.38%	7.69%	50.00%
1	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	3.85%	3.85%	19.23%
2	7.69%	—	7.69%	—	—	—	15.38%
3	3.85%	3.85%	3.85%	—	—	—	11.54%
4	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
5+	—	3.85%	—	—	—	—	3.85%
Total	23.08%	26.92%	15.38%	3.85%	19.23%	11.54%	100%

Vitoria Guimaraes — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.08
Mean allowed	2.08
StdDev scored	1.47
StdDev allowed	1.85
Mean total goals/game	3.15
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.355
Games played	26

↓ Scored \| Allowed →	0	1	2	3	4	5+	Total
0	11.54%	11.54%	3.85%	7.69%	—	—	34.62%
1	7.69%	—	11.54%	3.85%	—	—	23.08%
2	3.85%	7.69%	7.69%	—	—	—	19.23%
3	3.85%	—	3.85%	—	—	—	7.69%
4	3.85%	—	—	3.85%	—	—	7.69%
5+	—	7.69%	—	—	—	—	7.69%
Total	30.77%	26.92%	26.92%	15.38%	—	—	100%

Vitoria Setubal — Summary Statistics

Mean scored	1.54
Mean allowed	1.27
StdDev scored	1.61
StdDev allowed	1.08
Mean total goals/game	2.81
Correlation (scored vs allowed)	-0.041
Games played	26

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	43	37.5	+5.47
2	Os Belenenses (1st)	36	31.4	+4.55
3	Porto	36	31.7	+4.27
4	Benfica	39	36.5	+2.54
5	Vitoria Guimaraes	20	18.0	+2.03

Biggest Disappointments

#	Team	Actual	Sim	vsSim
1	Estoril	14	19.9	-5.86
2	Lusitano de Evora	25	29.9	-4.88
3	Atletico Clube de Portugal	19	22.6	-3.65
4	Academica de Coimbra	19	21.1	-2.09
5	Braga	18	19.7	-1.69

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts W or D consecutively; Winless counts L or D consecutively.

Longest Winning Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Sporting Clube de Portugal	6	Jan 11 – Feb 15	1 in 30
2	Barreirense	3	Feb 8 – Feb 22	1 in 30
3	Vitoria Guimaraes	3	Mar 1 – Mar 15	1 in 25
4	Boavista	3	Feb 15 – Mar 1	1 in 23
5	Benfica	5	Nov 9 – Dec 28	1 in 15

Longest Losing Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atletico Clube de Portugal	7	Feb 22 – Apr 12	1 in 145
2	Braga	6	Oct 12 – Nov 30	1 in 83
3	Academica de Coimbra	5	Feb 1 – Mar 8	1 in 32
4	Sporting Covilha	5	Nov 9 – Dec 28	1 in 23
5	Porto	2	Dec 21 – Dec 28	1 in 16

Longest Unbeaten Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Vitoria Guimaraes	6	Feb 15 – Mar 22	1 in 37
2	Sporting Covilha	5	Jan 25 – Feb 22	1 in 22
3	Os Belenenses (1st)	9	Feb 15 – Apr 19	1 in 15
4	Boavista	4	Feb 15 – Mar 8	1 in 14
5	Porto	6	Oct 19 – Dec 7	1 in 11

Longest Winless Streaks

#	Team	Games	Dates	Probability
1	Atletico Clube de Portugal	15	Jan 11 – Apr 26	1 in 1,303
2	Braga	10	Oct 12 – Jan 11	1 in 52
3	Boavista	7	Mar 8 – Apr 26	1 in 16
4	Estoril	7	Oct 19 – Dec 21	1 in 16
5	Sporting Covilha	8	Mar 1 – Apr 26	1 in 13

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Finish Position Heatmap

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14
Sporting Clube de Portugal	52.00%	26.00%	12.00%	6.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Benfica	32.00%	37.00%	22.00%	4.00%	2.00%	3.00%	—	—	—	—	—	—	—	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	4.00%	17.00%	17.00%	25.00%	17.00%	9.00%	7.00%	2.00%	1.00%	1.00%	—	—	—	—
Porto	8.00%	11.00%	25.00%	20.00%	15.00%	10.00%	3.00%	3.00%	5.00%	—	—	—	—	—
Barreirense	—	1.00%	2.00%	8.00%	17.00%	20.00%	22.00%	12.00%	5.00%	4.00%	2.00%	4.00%	3.00%	—
Vitoria Setubal	1.00%	5.00%	5.00%	9.00%	8.00%	25.00%	15.00%	17.00%	2.00%	4.00%	2.00%	5.00%	1.00%	1.00%
Lusitano de Evora	3.00%	3.00%	14.00%	24.00%	23.00%	9.00%	10.00%	5.00%	4.00%	2.00%	2.00%	—	1.00%	—
Sporting Covilha	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	1.00%	3.00%	6.00%	14.00%	20.00%	12.00%	15.00%	10.00%	6.00%	11.00%
Boavista	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	5.00%	5.00%	6.00%	8.00%	14.00%	8.00%	17.00%	10.00%	15.00%	10.00%
Vitoria Guimaraes	—	—	—	—	1.00%	—	2.00%	1.00%	7.00%	8.00%	9.00%	17.00%	24.00%	31.00%
Academica de Coimbra	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	2.00%	2.00%	17.00%	14.00%	14.00%	19.00%	13.00%	9.00%	7.00%
Atletico Clube de Portugal	—	—	1.00%	1.00%	4.00%	7.00%	14.00%	11.00%	10.00%	19.00%	11.00%	10.00%	6.00%	6.00%
Braga	—	—	—	—	1.00%	2.00%	8.00%	4.00%	9.00%	15.00%	13.00%	18.00%	15.00%	15.00%
Estoril	—	—	—	—	2.00%	3.00%	5.00%	6.00%	9.00%	13.00%	10.00%	13.00%	20.00%	19.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Points Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

No Trend Data Yet

Season Trends will appear here once midseason progression snapshots are available for this season.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team	Same level	Direct relegation
Barreirense	100%	—
Benfica	100%	—
Lusitano de Evora	100%	—
Os Belenenses (1st)	100%	—
Porto	100%	—
Sporting Clube de Portugal	100%	—
Vitoria Setubal	99.0%	1.0%
Atletico Clube de Portugal	94.0%	6.0%
Academica de Coimbra	93.0%	7.0%
Boavista	90.0%	10.0%
Sporting Covilha	89.0%	11.0%
Braga	85.0%	15.0%
Estoril	81.0%	19.0%
Vitoria Guimaraes	69.0%	31.0%

Filter by Team:

Overall Game Log

Every regular-season game from each team's perspective. Use the team filter at the top of the tab; the table scrolls within its frame. Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game.

Date	Opponent	Score	Pre Elo	Opp Elo	Win %	Tie %	Loss %	Elo Δ	Points
1952-09-28	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-2	1208	1268	54.5%	19.5%	26.0%	+5.8	3
1952-09-28	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 2-3	1268	1208	26.0%	19.5%	54.5%	-5.8	0
1952-09-28	Braga	L 1-2	1204	1190	62.4%	19.2%	18.4%	-13.1	0
1952-09-28	@ Boavista	W 2-1	1190	1204	18.4%	19.2%	62.4%	+13.1	3
1952-09-28	Lusitano de Evora	L 0-1	1193	1421	32.2%	19.2%	48.6%	-7.8	0
1952-09-28	@ Estoril	W 1-0	1421	1193	48.6%	19.2%	32.2%	+7.8	3
1952-09-28	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1459	1343	70.5%	18.2%	11.3%	-3.2	1
1952-09-28	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1343	1459	11.3%	18.2%	70.5%	+3.2	1
1952-09-28	Barreirense	L 1-3	1197	1254	54.8%	19.5%	25.7%	-20.0	0
1952-09-28	@ Sporting Covilha	W 3-1	1254	1197	25.7%	19.5%	54.8%	+20.0	3
1952-09-28	Porto	L 0-1	1169	1360	37.2%	19.4%	43.4%	-8.7	0
1952-09-28	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 1-0	1360	1169	43.4%	19.4%	37.2%	+8.7	3
1952-09-28	Benfica	W 2-1	1273	1441	40.4%	19.5%	40.1%	+8.8	3
1952-09-28	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1441	1273	40.1%	19.5%	40.4%	-8.8	0
1952-10-05	Estoril	W 4-2	1262	1185	67.7%	18.6%	13.7%	+5.3	3
1952-10-05	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 2-4	1185	1262	13.7%	18.6%	67.7%	-5.3	0
1952-10-05	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-0	1274	1161	70.3%	18.2%	11.4%	+11.0	6
1952-10-05	@ Barreirense	L 0-4	1161	1274	11.4%	18.2%	70.3%	-11.0	0
1952-10-05	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-2	1347	1214	71.6%	18.0%	10.4%	+5.6	4
1952-10-05	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-5	1214	1347	10.4%	18.0%	71.6%	-5.6	3
1952-10-05	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1432	1455	58.6%	19.4%	22.0%	-11.7	0
1952-10-05	@ Benfica	W 3-2	1455	1432	22.0%	19.4%	58.6%	+11.7	4
1952-10-05	Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1203	1282	52.2%	19.6%	28.2%	+6.6	6
1952-10-05	@ Braga	L 1-2	1282	1203	28.2%	19.6%	52.2%	-6.6	3
1952-10-05	Sporting Covilha	W 3-1	1429	1177	78.0%	16.3%	5.7%	+2.5	6
1952-10-05	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-3	1177	1429	5.7%	16.3%	78.0%	-2.5	0
1952-10-05	Boavista	W 4-2	1369	1191	74.3%	17.4%	8.3%	+3.3	6
1952-10-05	@ Porto	L 2-4	1191	1369	8.3%	17.4%	74.3%	-3.3	0
1952-10-12	Estoril	L 1-2	1208	1180	63.6%	19.1%	17.3%	-13.3	3
1952-10-12	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1180	1208	17.3%	19.1%	63.6%	+13.3	3
1952-10-12	Benfica	L 1-2	1352	1421	53.5%	19.6%	26.9%	-11.3	4
1952-10-12	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1421	1352	26.9%	19.6%	53.5%	+11.3	3
1952-10-12	Barreirense	D 0-0	1188	1285	50.0%	19.6%	30.4%	-1.1	1
1952-10-12	@ Boavista	D 0-0	1285	1188	30.4%	19.6%	50.0%	+1.1	7
1952-10-12	Braga	W 6-1	1467	1209	78.3%	16.2%	5.5%	+5.4	7
1952-10-12	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-6	1209	1467	5.5%	16.2%	78.3%	-5.4	6
1952-10-12	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 7-0	1174	1268	50.5%	19.6%	29.9%	+44.5	3
1952-10-12	@ Sporting Covilha	L 0-7	1268	1174	29.9%	19.6%	50.5%	-44.5	3
1952-10-12	Lusitano de Evora	D 1-1	1150	1431	25.8%	18.8%	55.3%	+1.5	1
1952-10-12	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 1-1	1431	1150	55.3%	18.8%	25.8%	-1.5	7
1952-10-12	Porto	W 3-0	1275	1372	50.0%	19.6%	30.4%	+20.4	6
1952-10-12	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-3	1372	1275	30.4%	19.6%	50.0%	-20.4	6
1952-10-19	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-1	1223	1151	67.3%	18.7%	14.0%	+8.6	6
1952-10-19	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-4	1151	1223	14.0%	18.7%	67.3%	-8.6	1
1952-10-19	Vitoria Setubal	D 2-2	1286	1296	60.1%	19.3%	20.6%	-1.5	8
1952-10-19	@ Barreirense	D 2-2	1296	1286	20.6%	19.3%	60.1%	+1.5	7
1952-10-19	Academica de Coimbra	W 7-2	1432	1195	77.3%	16.5%	6.2%	+5.0	6
1952-10-19	@ Benfica	L 2-7	1195	1432	6.2%	16.5%	77.3%	-5.0	3
1952-10-19	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-1	1204	1341	44.7%	19.6%	35.7%	-10.2	6
1952-10-19	@ Braga	W 1-0	1341	1204	35.7%	19.6%	44.7%	+10.2	7
1952-10-19	Sporting Covilha	D 2-2	1193	1219	58.3%	19.4%	22.3%	-1.4	4
1952-10-19	@ Estoril	D 2-2	1219	1193	22.3%	19.4%	58.3%	+1.4	4
1952-10-19	Boavista	W 5-1	1430	1187	77.6%	16.4%	6.0%	+4.8	10
1952-10-19	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 1-5	1187	1430	6.0%	16.4%	77.6%	-4.8	1
1952-10-19	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1352	1472	46.9%	19.6%	33.5%	-0.7	7
1952-10-19	@ Porto	D 1-1	1472	1352	33.5%	19.6%	46.9%	+0.7	8
1952-10-25	Braga	W 8-2	1437	1194	77.6%	16.4%	6.0%	+5.7	9
1952-10-25	@ Benfica	L 2-8	1194	1437	6.0%	16.4%	77.6%	-5.7	6
1952-10-26	Sporting Covilha	L 0-1	1190	1220	57.8%	19.4%	22.8%	-12.9	3
1952-10-26	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 1-0	1220	1190	22.8%	19.4%	57.8%	+12.9	7
1952-10-26	Porto	D 1-1	1351	1351	60.9%	19.3%	19.8%	-2.2	8
1952-10-26	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1351	1351	19.8%	19.3%	60.9%	+2.2	8
1952-10-26	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-2	1182	1232	55.7%	19.5%	24.8%	-11.7	1
1952-10-26	@ Boavista	W 2-1	1232	1182	24.8%	19.5%	55.7%	+11.7	9
1952-10-26	Barreirense	W 9-0	1473	1285	74.9%	17.3%	7.9%	+16.3	11
1952-10-26	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-9	1285	1473	7.9%	17.3%	74.9%	-16.3	8
1952-10-26	Estoril	W 3-0	1143	1192	55.8%	19.5%	24.7%	+17.1	4
1952-10-26	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-3	1192	1143	24.7%	19.5%	55.8%	-17.1	4
1952-10-26	Lusitano de Evora	W 4-0	1297	1435	44.6%	19.6%	35.8%	+30.4	10
1952-10-26	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-4	1435	1297	35.8%	19.6%	44.6%	-30.4	10
1952-11-02	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-1	1243	1327	51.6%	19.6%	28.8%	+11.6	12
1952-11-02	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1327	1243	28.8%	19.6%	51.6%	-11.6	10
1952-11-02	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1268	1349	52.1%	19.6%	28.4%	-11.0	8
1952-11-02	@ Barreirense	W 2-1	1349	1268	28.4%	19.6%	52.1%	+11.0	11
1952-11-02	Academica de Coimbra	L 0-1	1188	1177	62.1%	19.2%	18.8%	-13.8	6
1952-11-02	@ Braga	W 1-0	1177	1188	18.8%	19.2%	62.1%	+13.8	6
1952-11-02	Boavista	L 0-1	1175	1171	61.4%	19.2%	19.4%	-13.6	4
1952-11-02	@ Estoril	W 1-0	1171	1175	19.4%	19.2%	61.4%	+13.6	4
1952-11-02	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-0	1404	1489	51.5%	19.6%	28.9%	+13.4	13
1952-11-02	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 0-2	1489	1404	28.9%	19.6%	51.5%	-13.5	11
1952-11-02	Benfica	W 2-1	1354	1443	51.0%	19.6%	29.4%	+6.8	11
1952-11-02	@ Porto	L 1-2	1443	1354	29.4%	19.6%	51.0%	-6.8	9
1952-11-02	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-0	1233	1160	67.4%	18.7%	13.9%	+13.3	10
1952-11-02	@ Sporting Covilha	L 0-4	1160	1233	13.9%	18.7%	67.4%	-13.3	4
1952-11-09	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 1-0	1191	1146	65.0%	18.9%	16.0%	+4.2	9
1952-11-09	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-1	1146	1191	16.0%	18.9%	65.0%	-4.2	4
1952-11-09	Lusitano de Evora	W 3-0	1360	1418	54.8%	19.5%	25.7%	+17.7	14
1952-11-09	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1418	1360	25.7%	19.5%	54.8%	-17.7	13
1952-11-09	Barreirense	W 3-0	1436	1257	74.3%	17.4%	8.3%	+6.1	12
1952-11-09	@ Benfica	L 0-3	1257	1436	8.3%	17.4%	74.3%	-6.1	8
1952-11-09	Sporting Covilha	W 4-1	1184	1246	54.3%	19.5%	26.2%	+15.1	7
1952-11-09	@ Boavista	L 1-4	1246	1184	26.2%	19.5%	54.3%	-15.1	10
1952-11-09	Porto	L 0-2	1174	1360	37.8%	19.5%	42.7%	-16.7	6
1952-11-09	@ Braga	W 2-0	1360	1174	42.7%	19.5%	37.8%	+16.7	14
1952-11-09	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 2-0	1476	1255	76.6%	16.8%	6.7%	+3.4	14
1952-11-09	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1255	1476	6.7%	16.8%	76.6%	-3.4	12
1952-11-09	Estoril	D 0-0	1316	1161	73.0%	17.7%	9.3%	-3.9	11
1952-11-09	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 0-0	1161	1316	9.3%	17.7%	73.0%	+3.9	5
1952-11-30	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 2-2	1252	1378	46.2%	19.6%	34.2%	-0.4	13
1952-11-30	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1378	1252	34.2%	19.6%	46.2%	+0.4	15
1952-11-30	Braga	W 3-1	1251	1158	68.9%	18.5%	12.6%	+5.5	11
1952-11-30	@ Barreirense	L 1-3	1158	1251	12.6%	18.5%	68.9%	-5.5	6
1952-11-30	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1165	1479	22.4%	18.5%	59.1%	-9.2	5
1952-11-30	@ Estoril	W 3-1	1479	1165	59.1%	18.5%	22.4%	+9.2	17
1952-11-30	Benfica	L 0-3	1400	1442	56.6%	19.5%	24.0%	-34.5	13
1952-11-30	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 3-0	1442	1400	24.0%	19.5%	56.6%	+34.5	15
1952-11-30	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1377	1195	74.6%	17.3%	8.1%	+2.1	17
1952-11-30	@ Porto	L 1-2	1195	1377	8.1%	17.3%	74.6%	-2.1	9
1952-11-30	Vitoria Setubal	L 1-5	1231	1312	52.0%	19.6%	28.4%	-34.8	10
1952-11-30	@ Sporting Covilha	W 5-1	1312	1231	28.4%	19.6%	52.0%	+34.8	14
1952-11-30	Boavista	W 2-0	1142	1199	54.8%	19.5%	25.6%	+12.1	7
1952-11-30	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-2	1199	1142	25.6%	19.5%	54.8%	-12.1	7
1952-12-07	Boavista	L 1-3	1193	1187	61.5%	19.2%	19.3%	-22.3	9
1952-12-07	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1187	1193	19.3%	19.2%	61.5%	+22.3	10
1952-12-07	Estoril	W 6-1	1378	1156	76.6%	16.7%	6.6%	+6.5	18
1952-12-07	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-6	1156	1378	6.6%	16.7%	76.6%	-6.5	5
1952-12-07	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 4-0	1476	1251	76.8%	16.7%	6.5%	+6.3	18
1952-12-07	@ Benfica	L 0-4	1251	1476	6.5%	16.7%	76.8%	-6.3	13
1952-12-07	Lusitano de Evora	D 1-1	1152	1365	34.1%	19.3%	46.6%	+0.6	7
1952-12-07	@ Braga	D 1-1	1365	1152	46.6%	19.3%	34.1%	-0.6	14
1952-12-07	Barreirense	W 4-0	1379	1257	70.9%	18.1%	10.9%	+10.5	20
1952-12-07	@ Porto	L 0-4	1257	1379	10.9%	18.1%	70.9%	-10.5	11
1952-12-07	Sporting Covilha	W 3-0	1489	1196	79.8%	15.6%	4.7%	+3.4	20
1952-12-07	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1196	1489	4.7%	15.6%	79.8%	-3.4	10
1952-12-07	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 1-0	1347	1154	75.1%	17.2%	7.7%	+2.1	17
1952-12-07	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-1	1154	1347	7.7%	17.2%	75.1%	-2.1	7
1952-12-21	Braga	W 2-0	1245	1153	68.8%	18.5%	12.7%	+6.4	16
1952-12-21	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1153	1245	12.7%	18.5%	68.8%	-6.4	7
1952-12-21	Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1246	1170	67.6%	18.6%	13.8%	-2.2	12
1952-12-21	@ Barreirense	D 2-2	1170	1246	13.8%	18.6%	67.6%	+2.2	10
1952-12-21	Vitoria Setubal	L 2-3	1210	1349	44.4%	19.6%	36.0%	-9.1	10
1952-12-21	@ Boavista	W 3-2	1349	1210	36.0%	19.6%	44.4%	+9.1	20
1952-12-21	Benfica	L 0-2	1149	1483	20.6%	18.3%	61.1%	-9.8	5
1952-12-21	@ Estoril	W 2-0	1483	1149	61.1%	18.3%	20.6%	+9.8	21
1952-12-21	Porto	W 3-0	1365	1390	58.4%	19.4%	22.2%	+15.5	17
1952-12-21	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 0-3	1390	1365	22.2%	19.4%	58.4%	-15.5	20
1952-12-21	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1193	1385	37.1%	19.4%	43.5%	-8.2	10
1952-12-21	@ Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1385	1193	43.5%	19.4%	37.1%	+8.2	21
1952-12-21	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-2	1152	1492	20.0%	18.2%	61.8%	-9.6	7
1952-12-21	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	W 2-0	1492	1152	61.8%	18.2%	20.0%	+9.6	23
1952-12-28	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1173	1358	37.9%	19.5%	42.6%	+26.8	13
1952-12-28	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-3	1358	1173	42.6%	19.5%	37.9%	-26.8	20
1952-12-28	Lusitano de Evora	W 4-1	1244	1380	44.8%	19.6%	35.6%	+19.5	15
1952-12-28	@ Barreirense	L 1-4	1380	1244	35.6%	19.6%	44.8%	-19.6	17
1952-12-28	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-0	1393	1143	77.9%	16.3%	5.8%	+6.8	24
1952-12-28	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1143	1393	5.8%	16.3%	77.9%	-6.8	7
1952-12-28	Sporting Covilha	W 5-0	1493	1185	80.4%	15.3%	4.3%	+5.0	24
1952-12-28	@ Benfica	L 0-5	1185	1493	4.3%	15.3%	80.4%	-5.0	10
1952-12-28	Estoril	L 0-3	1146	1139	61.6%	19.2%	19.1%	-37.5	7
1952-12-28	@ Braga	W 3-0	1139	1146	19.1%	19.2%	61.6%	+37.5	8
1952-12-28	Atletico Clube de Portugal	L 2-3	1374	1251	71.0%	18.1%	10.9%	-14.1	20
1952-12-28	@ Porto	W 3-2	1251	1374	10.9%	18.1%	71.0%	+14.1	19
1952-12-28	Boavista	D 3-3	1502	1200	80.1%	15.4%	4.5%	-2.6	24
1952-12-28	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 3-3	1200	1502	4.5%	15.4%	80.1%	+2.6	11
1953-01-11	Lusitano de Evora	W 4-0	1199	1361	41.3%	19.5%	39.2%	+32.7	16
1953-01-11	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 0-4	1361	1199	39.2%	19.5%	41.3%	-32.7	17
1953-01-11	Barreirense	D 1-1	1265	1264	61.1%	19.2%	19.6%	-2.2	20
1953-01-11	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1264	1265	19.6%	19.2%	61.1%	+2.2	16
1953-01-11	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 2-1	1203	1400	36.4%	19.4%	44.2%	+9.5	14
1953-01-11	@ Boavista	L 1-2	1400	1203	44.2%	19.4%	36.4%	-9.5	24
1953-01-11	Porto	L 2-3	1177	1360	38.2%	19.5%	42.3%	-8.0	8
1953-01-11	@ Estoril	W 3-2	1360	1177	42.3%	19.5%	38.2%	+8.0	23
1953-01-11	Braga	W 3-2	1180	1109	67.2%	18.7%	14.1%	+3.3	13
1953-01-11	@ Sporting Covilha	L 2-3	1109	1180	14.1%	18.7%	67.2%	-3.4	7
1953-01-11	Benfica	D 0-0	1136	1498	18.1%	18.0%	63.9%	+2.7	8
1953-01-11	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 0-0	1498	1136	63.9%	18.0%	18.1%	-2.7	25
1953-01-11	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1331	1499	40.4%	19.5%	40.1%	-9.4	20
1953-01-11	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1499	1331	40.1%	19.5%	40.4%	+9.4	27
1953-01-18	Estoril	W 4-0	1266	1169	69.2%	18.4%	12.4%	+11.9	19
1953-01-18	@ Barreirense	L 0-4	1169	1266	12.4%	18.4%	69.2%	-11.9	8
1953-01-18	Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1390	1322	67.0%	18.7%	14.3%	+3.6	27
1953-01-18	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1322	1390	14.3%	18.7%	67.0%	-3.6	20
1953-01-18	Boavista	W 4-1	1495	1213	79.4%	15.7%	4.9%	+3.0	28
1953-01-18	@ Benfica	L 1-4	1213	1495	4.9%	15.7%	79.4%	-3.0	14
1953-01-18	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-0	1105	1139	57.5%	19.4%	23.0%	+21.0	10
1953-01-18	@ Braga	L 0-4	1139	1105	23.0%	19.4%	57.5%	-21.0	8
1953-01-18	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1328	1263	66.7%	18.8%	14.5%	+3.9	20
1953-01-18	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 0-1	1263	1328	14.5%	18.8%	66.7%	-3.9	20
1953-01-18	Sporting Covilha	W 3-1	1368	1183	74.7%	17.3%	8.0%	+3.5	26
1953-01-18	@ Porto	L 1-3	1183	1368	8.0%	17.3%	74.7%	-3.5	13
1953-01-18	Academica de Coimbra	W 5-0	1508	1232	79.1%	15.8%	5.1%	+5.9	30
1953-01-18	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-5	1232	1508	5.1%	15.8%	79.1%	-5.9	16
1953-01-25	Academica de Coimbra	L 1-3	1259	1226	64.1%	19.0%	16.9%	-23.2	20
1953-01-25	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-1	1226	1259	16.9%	19.0%	64.1%	+23.2	19
1953-01-25	Sporting Covilha	D 0-0	1278	1180	69.2%	18.4%	12.3%	-3.5	20
1953-01-25	@ Barreirense	D 0-0	1180	1278	12.3%	18.4%	69.2%	+3.5	14
1953-01-25	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 2-4	1394	1514	46.9%	19.6%	33.5%	-15.5	27
1953-01-25	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	W 4-2	1514	1394	33.5%	19.6%	46.9%	+15.5	33
1953-01-25	Vitoria Setubal	W 2-1	1498	1318	74.4%	17.4%	8.2%	+2.1	31
1953-01-25	@ Benfica	L 1-2	1318	1498	8.2%	17.4%	74.4%	-2.1	20
1953-01-25	Boavista	W 2-1	1126	1210	51.7%	19.6%	28.7%	+6.7	13
1953-01-25	@ Braga	L 1-2	1210	1126	28.7%	19.6%	51.7%	-6.7	14
1953-01-25	Estoril	W 1-0	1332	1157	74.1%	17.4%	8.4%	+2.3	23
1953-01-25	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 0-1	1157	1332	8.4%	17.4%	74.1%	-2.3	8
1953-01-25	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 6-0	1372	1118	78.1%	16.2%	5.7%	+7.9	29
1953-01-25	@ Porto	L 0-6	1118	1372	5.7%	16.2%	78.1%	-7.9	8
1953-02-01	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 2-5	1249	1378	45.8%	19.6%	34.6%	-20.8	19
1953-02-01	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 5-2	1378	1249	34.6%	19.6%	45.8%	+20.8	30
1953-02-01	Porto	L 1-3	1203	1379	39.2%	19.5%	41.3%	-14.9	14
1953-02-01	@ Boavista	W 3-1	1379	1203	41.3%	19.5%	39.2%	+14.9	32
1953-02-01	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1155	1236	51.9%	19.6%	28.5%	-1.3	9
1953-02-01	@ Estoril	D 0-0	1236	1155	28.5%	19.6%	51.9%	+1.3	21
1953-02-01	Benfica	W 3-1	1530	1500	63.8%	19.1%	17.2%	+7.4	36
1953-02-01	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1500	1530	17.2%	19.1%	63.8%	-7.4	31
1953-02-01	Lusitano de Evora	W 3-1	1183	1334	42.8%	19.6%	37.7%	+14.5	17
1953-02-01	@ Sporting Covilha	L 1-3	1334	1183	37.7%	19.6%	42.8%	-14.5	23
1953-02-01	Barreirense	W 1-0	1110	1274	40.9%	19.5%	39.6%	+9.2	11
1953-02-01	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-1	1274	1110	39.6%	19.5%	40.9%	-9.2	20
1953-02-01	Braga	W 2-1	1316	1133	74.6%	17.3%	8.1%	+2.1	23
1953-02-01	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-2	1133	1316	8.1%	17.3%	74.6%	-2.1	13
1953-02-08	Sporting Covilha	D 2-2	1237	1198	64.6%	19.0%	16.4%	-1.9	22
1953-02-08	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1198	1237	16.4%	19.0%	64.6%	+1.9	18
1953-02-08	Boavista	W 4-0	1265	1188	67.7%	18.6%	13.7%	+13.1	23
1953-02-08	@ Barreirense	L 0-4	1188	1265	13.7%	18.6%	67.7%	-13.1	14
1953-02-08	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 3-1	1493	1399	68.9%	18.5%	12.6%	+5.5	34
1953-02-08	@ Benfica	L 1-3	1399	1493	12.6%	18.5%	68.9%	-5.5	30
1953-02-08	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 3-5	1131	1537	14.7%	17.4%	67.9%	-5.2	13
1953-02-08	@ Braga	W 5-3	1537	1131	67.9%	17.4%	14.7%	+5.2	39
1953-02-08	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1153	1229	52.7%	19.6%	27.7%	+6.5	12
1953-02-08	@ Estoril	L 1-2	1229	1153	27.7%	19.6%	52.7%	-6.5	19
1953-02-08	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 3-0	1320	1119	75.5%	17.1%	7.4%	+5.4	26
1953-02-08	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 0-3	1119	1320	7.4%	17.1%	75.5%	-5.4	11
1953-02-08	Vitoria Setubal	W 3-0	1394	1318	67.6%	18.6%	13.7%	+10.0	35
1953-02-08	@ Porto	L 0-3	1318	1394	13.7%	18.6%	67.6%	-10.0	23
1953-02-15	Benfica	L 1-3	1222	1498	26.5%	18.9%	54.6%	-10.7	19
1953-02-15	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 3-1	1498	1222	54.6%	18.9%	26.5%	+10.7	37
1953-02-15	Braga	W 2-1	1393	1126	78.7%	16.0%	5.3%	+1.3	33
1953-02-15	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-2	1126	1393	5.3%	16.0%	78.7%	-1.3	13
1953-02-15	Lusitano de Evora	W 1-0	1175	1325	42.9%	19.6%	37.6%	+8.8	17
1953-02-15	@ Boavista	L 0-1	1325	1175	37.6%	19.6%	42.9%	-8.8	26
1953-02-15	Porto	W 5-1	1542	1404	71.9%	17.9%	10.1%	+8.1	42
1953-02-15	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-5	1404	1542	10.1%	17.9%	71.9%	-8.1	35
1953-02-15	Estoril	W 4-1	1200	1160	64.6%	19.0%	16.4%	+10.0	21
1953-02-15	@ Sporting Covilha	L 1-4	1160	1200	16.4%	19.0%	64.6%	-10.0	12
1953-02-15	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 2-2	1114	1236	46.7%	19.6%	33.7%	-0.5	12
1953-02-15	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1236	1114	33.7%	19.6%	46.7%	+0.5	23
1953-02-15	Barreirense	L 0-1	1308	1278	63.8%	19.1%	17.2%	-14.2	23
1953-02-15	@ Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1278	1308	17.2%	19.1%	63.8%	+14.2	26
1953-02-22	Boavista	L 0-1	1236	1184	65.7%	18.9%	15.4%	-14.6	23
1953-02-22	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1184	1236	15.4%	18.9%	65.7%	+14.6	20
1953-02-22	Sporting Clube de Portugal	W 2-1	1292	1550	28.5%	19.0%	52.4%	+11.0	29
1953-02-22	@ Barreirense	L 1-2	1550	1292	52.4%	19.0%	28.5%	-11.0	42
1953-02-22	Benfica	D 2-2	1124	1509	16.3%	17.7%	66.0%	+2.0	14
1953-02-22	@ Braga	D 2-2	1509	1124	66.0%	17.7%	16.3%	-2.0	38
1953-02-22	Vitoria Guimaraes	D 2-2	1150	1113	64.4%	19.0%	16.6%	-1.9	13
1953-02-22	@ Estoril	D 2-2	1113	1150	16.6%	19.0%	64.4%	+1.9	13
1953-02-22	Vitoria Setubal	D 0-0	1316	1294	63.1%	19.1%	17.8%	-2.7	27
1953-02-22	@ Lusitano de Evora	D 0-0	1294	1316	17.8%	19.1%	63.1%	+2.7	24
1953-02-22	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1396	1395	61.1%	19.2%	19.6%	-2.2	36
1953-02-22	@ Porto	D 1-1	1395	1396	19.6%	19.2%	61.1%	+2.2	34
1953-02-22	Academica de Coimbra	W 2-1	1210	1211	60.8%	19.3%	19.9%	+4.9	24
1953-02-22	@ Sporting Covilha	L 1-2	1211	1210	19.9%	19.3%	60.8%	-4.9	19
1953-03-01	Barreirense	D 1-1	1397	1303	68.9%	18.5%	12.6%	-3.1	35
1953-03-01	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1303	1397	12.6%	18.5%	68.9%	+3.1	30
1953-03-01	Porto	W 2-1	1507	1394	70.3%	18.2%	11.5%	+2.9	41
1953-03-01	@ Benfica	L 1-2	1394	1507	11.5%	18.2%	70.3%	-2.9	36
1953-03-01	Estoril	W 4-2	1198	1148	65.6%	18.9%	15.6%	+6.0	23
1953-03-01	@ Boavista	L 2-4	1148	1198	15.6%	18.9%	65.6%	-6.0	13
1953-03-01	Lusitano de Evora	W 7-0	1539	1314	76.8%	16.7%	6.5%	+10.6	45
1953-03-01	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-7	1314	1539	6.5%	16.7%	76.8%	-10.6	27
1953-03-01	Sporting Covilha	W 2-0	1115	1214	49.7%	19.6%	30.7%	+14.1	16
1953-03-01	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 0-2	1214	1115	30.7%	19.6%	49.7%	-14.1	24
1953-03-01	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 4-3	1297	1221	67.5%	18.6%	13.8%	+3.2	27
1953-03-01	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 3-4	1221	1297	13.8%	18.6%	67.5%	-3.2	23
1953-03-08	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-3	1218	1550	20.7%	18.3%	61.0%	-14.4	23
1953-03-08	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-0	1550	1218	61.0%	18.3%	20.7%	+14.4	48
1953-03-08	Benfica	D 1-1	1306	1510	35.5%	19.4%	45.1%	+0.5	31
1953-03-08	@ Barreirense	D 1-1	1510	1306	45.1%	19.4%	35.5%	-0.5	42
1953-03-08	Vitoria Setubal	W 2-0	1142	1300	41.8%	19.6%	38.6%	+17.0	16
1953-03-08	@ Estoril	L 0-2	1300	1142	38.6%	19.6%	41.8%	-17.0	27
1953-03-08	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-1	1303	1394	50.8%	19.6%	29.6%	-11.4	27
1953-03-08	@ Lusitano de Evora	W 1-0	1394	1303	29.6%	19.6%	50.8%	+11.4	38
1953-03-08	Braga	W 5-0	1391	1126	78.6%	16.0%	5.3%	+6.3	39
1953-03-08	@ Porto	L 0-5	1126	1391	5.3%	16.0%	78.6%	-6.3	14
1953-03-08	Boavista	D 1-1	1200	1204	60.6%	19.3%	20.2%	-2.1	25
1953-03-08	@ Sporting Covilha	D 1-1	1204	1200	20.2%	19.3%	60.6%	+2.1	24
1953-03-08	Academica de Coimbra	W 6-1	1129	1206	52.4%	19.6%	28.0%	+25.3	19
1953-03-08	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-6	1206	1129	28.0%	19.6%	52.4%	-25.3	19
1953-03-15	Porto	D 1-1	1181	1397	33.8%	19.3%	46.9%	+0.6	20
1953-03-15	@ Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1397	1181	46.9%	19.3%	33.8%	-0.7	40
1953-03-15	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-1	1405	1204	75.6%	17.1%	7.4%	+3.2	41
1953-03-15	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 1-3	1204	1405	7.4%	17.1%	75.6%	-3.2	23
1953-03-15	Lusitano de Evora	W 3-1	1509	1292	76.4%	16.8%	6.8%	+3.0	45
1953-03-15	@ Benfica	L 1-3	1292	1509	6.8%	16.8%	76.4%	-3.0	27
1953-03-15	Vitoria Guimaraes	L 1-3	1207	1154	65.7%	18.9%	15.4%	-23.8	24
1953-03-15	@ Boavista	W 3-1	1154	1207	15.4%	18.9%	65.7%	+23.8	22
1953-03-15	Barreirense	W 1-0	1120	1307	37.7%	19.4%	42.8%	+9.8	17
1953-03-15	@ Braga	L 0-1	1307	1120	42.8%	19.4%	37.7%	-9.8	31
1953-03-15	Estoril	W 3-1	1564	1159	83.9%	13.4%	2.6%	+1.1	51
1953-03-15	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 1-3	1159	1564	2.6%	13.4%	83.9%	-1.1	16
1953-03-15	Sporting Covilha	W 5-1	1283	1198	68.3%	18.6%	13.2%	+10.5	30
1953-03-15	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 1-5	1198	1283	13.2%	18.6%	68.3%	-10.5	25
1953-03-22	Benfica	L 0-3	1201	1512	22.7%	18.5%	58.8%	-15.6	23
1953-03-22	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 3-0	1512	1201	58.8%	18.5%	22.7%	+15.6	48
1953-03-22	Porto	W 4-0	1297	1397	49.6%	19.6%	30.8%	+26.9	34
1953-03-22	@ Barreirense	L 0-4	1397	1297	30.8%	19.6%	49.6%	-26.8	40
1953-03-22	Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1183	1182	61.1%	19.2%	19.7%	-2.2	25
1953-03-22	@ Boavista	D 1-1	1182	1183	19.7%	19.2%	61.1%	+2.2	21
1953-03-22	Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1158	1408	29.4%	19.1%	51.5%	-19.7	16
1953-03-22	@ Estoril	W 3-0	1408	1158	51.5%	19.1%	29.4%	+19.7	44
1953-03-22	Braga	W 3-2	1289	1130	73.2%	17.7%	9.1%	+2.2	30
1953-03-22	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 2-3	1130	1289	9.1%	17.7%	73.2%	-2.2	17
1953-03-22	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1188	1565	16.8%	17.8%	65.5%	+2.9	26
1953-03-22	@ Sporting Covilha	D 0-0	1565	1188	65.5%	17.8%	16.8%	-2.9	52
1953-03-22	Vitoria Setubal	D 0-0	1178	1293	47.7%	19.6%	32.7%	-0.8	23
1953-03-22	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 0-0	1293	1178	32.7%	19.6%	47.7%	+0.8	31
1953-03-29	Barreirense	W 4-1	1184	1324	44.3%	19.6%	36.1%	+19.8	24
1953-03-29	@ Academica de Coimbra	L 1-4	1324	1184	36.1%	19.6%	44.3%	-19.8	34
1953-03-29	Sporting Covilha	W 3-0	1428	1191	77.4%	16.5%	6.1%	+4.5	47
1953-03-29	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-3	1191	1428	6.1%	16.5%	77.4%	-4.5	26
1953-03-29	Estoril	W 6-0	1528	1138	83.4%	13.8%	2.8%	+3.8	51
1953-03-29	@ Benfica	L 0-6	1138	1528	2.8%	13.8%	83.4%	-3.8	16
1953-03-29	Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 1-0	1128	1185	54.8%	19.5%	25.6%	+6.4	20
1953-03-29	@ Braga	L 0-1	1185	1128	25.6%	19.5%	54.8%	-6.4	23
1953-03-29	Lusitano de Evora	W 4-1	1370	1291	67.8%	18.6%	13.5%	+8.3	43
1953-03-29	@ Porto	L 1-4	1291	1370	13.5%	18.6%	67.8%	-8.4	30
1953-03-29	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 4-0	1563	1177	83.3%	13.8%	2.9%	+2.6	55
1953-03-29	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-4	1177	1563	2.9%	13.8%	83.3%	-2.6	23
1953-03-29	Boavista	W 2-0	1294	1181	70.3%	18.2%	11.4%	+5.8	34
1953-03-29	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-2	1181	1294	11.4%	18.2%	70.3%	-5.8	25
1953-04-05	Braga	L 0-2	1204	1134	67.1%	18.7%	14.2%	-28.1	24
1953-04-05	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 2-0	1134	1204	14.2%	18.7%	67.1%	+28.1	23
1953-04-12	Porto	L 0-2	1179	1378	35.9%	19.4%	44.7%	-16.0	23
1953-04-12	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	W 2-0	1378	1179	44.7%	19.4%	35.9%	+16.0	46
1953-04-12	Sporting Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1175	1565	15.8%	17.6%	66.6%	+2.7	26
1953-04-12	@ Boavista	D 1-1	1565	1175	66.6%	17.6%	15.8%	-2.7	56
1953-04-12	Braga	W 2-1	1134	1162	58.1%	19.4%	22.5%	+5.4	19
1953-04-12	@ Estoril	L 1-2	1162	1134	22.5%	19.4%	58.1%	-5.4	23
1953-04-12	Barreirense	W 2-0	1283	1304	58.8%	19.4%	21.8%	+10.6	33
1953-04-12	@ Lusitano de Evora	L 0-2	1304	1283	21.8%	19.4%	58.8%	-10.6	34
1953-04-12	Benfica	D 0-0	1186	1532	19.5%	18.2%	62.4%	+2.5	27
1953-04-12	@ Sporting Covilha	D 0-0	1532	1186	62.4%	18.2%	19.5%	-2.5	52
1953-04-12	Os Belenenses (1st)	D 1-1	1175	1433	28.5%	19.0%	52.4%	+1.2	24
1953-04-12	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	D 1-1	1433	1175	52.4%	19.0%	28.5%	-1.2	48
1953-04-12	Academica de Coimbra	D 2-2	1300	1176	71.0%	18.1%	10.8%	-2.5	35
1953-04-12	@ Vitoria Setubal	D 2-2	1176	1300	10.8%	18.1%	71.0%	+2.5	25
1953-04-19	Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 1-1	1294	1162	71.5%	18.0%	10.5%	-3.4	35
1953-04-19	@ Barreirense	D 1-1	1162	1294	10.5%	18.0%	71.5%	+3.4	24
1953-04-19	Boavista	W 5-0	1431	1177	78.1%	16.2%	5.7%	+6.6	51
1953-04-19	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	L 0-5	1177	1431	5.7%	16.2%	78.1%	-6.6	26
1953-04-19	Vitoria Guimaraes	W 5-1	1529	1176	82.1%	14.4%	3.4%	+2.6	55
1953-04-19	@ Benfica	L 1-5	1176	1529	3.4%	14.4%	82.1%	-2.6	24
1953-04-19	Sporting Covilha	W 4-1	1157	1189	57.7%	19.4%	22.9%	+13.5	26
1953-04-19	@ Braga	L 1-4	1189	1157	22.9%	19.4%	57.7%	-13.5	27
1953-04-19	Academica de Coimbra	D 1-1	1293	1178	70.4%	18.2%	11.3%	-3.2	34
1953-04-19	@ Lusitano de Evora	D 1-1	1178	1293	11.3%	18.2%	70.4%	+3.2	26
1953-04-19	Estoril	W 4-1	1394	1140	78.1%	16.2%	5.6%	+3.5	49
1953-04-19	@ Porto	L 1-4	1140	1394	5.6%	16.2%	78.1%	-3.5	19
1953-04-19	Vitoria Setubal	W 1-0	1562	1297	78.6%	16.0%	5.3%	+1.4	59
1953-04-19	@ Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1297	1562	5.3%	16.0%	78.6%	-1.4	35
1953-04-26	Sporting Clube de Portugal	L 0-1	1181	1564	16.4%	17.7%	65.9%	-4.2	26
1953-04-26	@ Academica de Coimbra	W 1-0	1564	1181	65.9%	17.7%	16.4%	+4.2	62
1953-04-26	Lusitano de Evora	D 0-0	1166	1290	46.5%	19.6%	34.0%	-0.7	25
1953-04-26	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	D 0-0	1290	1166	34.0%	19.6%	46.5%	+0.7	35
1953-04-26	Benfica	D 2-2	1171	1532	18.2%	18.0%	63.9%	+1.8	27
1953-04-26	@ Boavista	D 2-2	1532	1171	63.9%	18.0%	18.2%	-1.8	56
1953-04-26	Barreirense	L 2-5	1136	1290	42.4%	19.6%	38.1%	-19.5	19
1953-04-26	@ Estoril	W 5-2	1290	1136	38.1%	19.6%	42.4%	+19.5	38
1953-04-26	Porto	L 1-2	1175	1398	32.9%	19.3%	47.8%	-7.5	27
1953-04-26	@ Sporting Covilha	W 2-1	1398	1175	47.8%	19.3%	32.9%	+7.5	52
1953-04-26	Braga	W 3-2	1173	1170	61.3%	19.2%	19.5%	+4.5	27
1953-04-26	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	L 2-3	1170	1173	19.5%	19.2%	61.3%	-4.5	26
1953-04-26	Os Belenenses (1st)	W 1-0	1296	1438	44.0%	19.6%	36.4%	+8.6	38
1953-04-26	@ Vitoria Setubal	L 0-1	1438	1296	36.4%	19.6%	44.0%	-8.6	51

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Underdog Win %	Winning Team			Losing Team
#	Date	Underdog Win %	Team	Elo	Score	Team	Elo	Score
1	1952-12-28	10.91%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	1251	3	@ Porto	1374	2
2	1953-04-05	14.18%	Braga	1134	2	@ Academica de Coimbra	1204	0
3	1953-02-22	15.43%	Boavista	1184	1	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	1236	0
4	1953-03-15	15.43%	Vitoria Guimaraes	1154	3	@ Boavista	1207	1
5	1953-01-25	16.90%	Academica de Coimbra	1226	3	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	1259	1
6	1953-02-15	17.17%	Barreirense	1278	1	@ Vitoria Setubal	1308	0
7	1952-10-12	17.31%	Estoril	1180	2	@ Academica de Coimbra	1208	1
8	1952-09-28	18.45%	Braga	1190	2	@ Boavista	1204	1
9	1952-11-02	18.75%	Academica de Coimbra	1177	1	@ Braga	1188	0
10	1952-12-28	19.14%	Estoril	1139	3	@ Braga	1146	0
11	1952-12-07	19.28%	Boavista	1187	3	@ Academica de Coimbra	1193	1
12	1952-11-02	19.41%	Boavista	1171	1	@ Estoril	1175	0
13	1952-10-05	22.00%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1455	3	@ Benfica	1432	2
14	1952-10-26	22.77%	Sporting Covilha	1220	1	@ Academica de Coimbra	1190	0
15	1952-11-30	23.96%	Benfica	1442	3	@ Lusitano de Evora	1400	0
16	1952-10-26	24.77%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	1232	2	@ Boavista	1182	1
17	1952-09-28	25.67%	Barreirense	1254	3	@ Sporting Covilha	1197	1
18	1952-10-12	26.93%	Benfica	1421	2	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1352	1
19	1952-11-02	28.36%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1349	2	@ Barreirense	1268	1
20	1952-11-30	28.39%	Vitoria Setubal	1312	5	@ Sporting Covilha	1231	1
21	1953-02-22	28.52%	@ Barreirense	1292	2	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1550	1
22	1953-03-08	29.62%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1394	1	@ Lusitano de Evora	1303	0
23	1953-01-25	33.47%	Sporting Clube de Portugal	1514	4	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	1394	2
24	1953-02-01	34.57%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1378	5	@ Academica de Coimbra	1249	2
25	1952-10-19	35.70%	Os Belenenses (1st)	1341	1	@ Braga	1204	0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that moved the Elo needle the most. Elo Δ is the magnitude of the rating swing; both teams move by the same amount per game (one up, one down). The winning side is shown first. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

#	Date	Elo Δ	Winning Team				Losing Team				Tie %
#	Date	Elo Δ	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Team	Score	Elo	Win %	Tie %
1	1952-10-12	44.47	@ Sporting Covilha	7	1174	50.48%	Atletico Clube de Portugal	0	1268	29.93%
2	1952-12-28	37.52	Estoril	3	1139	19.14%	@ Braga	0	1146	61.64%
3	1952-11-30	34.76	Vitoria Setubal	5	1312	28.39%	@ Sporting Covilha	1	1231	52.03%
4	1952-11-30	34.53	Benfica	3	1442	23.96%	@ Lusitano de Evora	0	1400	56.58%
5	1953-01-11	32.70	@ Academica de Coimbra	4	1199	41.29%	Lusitano de Evora	0	1361	39.17%
6	1952-10-26	30.41	@ Vitoria Setubal	4	1297	44.62%	Lusitano de Evora	0	1435	35.79%
7	1953-04-05	28.10	Braga	2	1134	14.18%	@ Academica de Coimbra	0	1204	67.11%
8	1953-03-22	26.85	@ Barreirense	4	1297	49.64%	Porto	0	1397	30.76%
9	1952-12-28	26.78	@ Academica de Coimbra	3	1173	37.94%	Vitoria Setubal	0	1358	42.60%
10	1953-03-08	25.32	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	6	1129	52.44%	Academica de Coimbra	1	1206	27.99%
11	1953-03-15	23.83	Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1154	15.43%	@ Boavista	1	1207	65.70%
12	1953-01-25	23.24	Academica de Coimbra	3	1226	16.90%	@ Atletico Clube de Portugal	1	1259	64.07%
13	1952-12-07	22.32	Boavista	3	1187	19.28%	@ Academica de Coimbra	1	1193	61.50%
14	1953-01-18	20.99	@ Braga	4	1105	57.53%	Vitoria Guimaraes	0	1139	23.04%
15	1953-02-01	20.83	Os Belenenses (1st)	5	1378	34.57%	@ Academica de Coimbra	2	1249	45.83%
16	1952-10-12	20.38	@ Vitoria Setubal	3	1275	49.96%	Porto	0	1372	30.44%
17	1952-09-28	19.98	Barreirense	3	1254	25.67%	@ Sporting Covilha	1	1197	54.81%
18	1953-03-29	19.77	@ Academica de Coimbra	4	1184	44.31%	Barreirense	1	1324	36.11%
19	1953-03-22	19.67	Os Belenenses (1st)	3	1408	51.49%	@ Estoril	0	1158	29.42%
20	1952-12-28	19.55	@ Barreirense	4	1244	44.80%	Lusitano de Evora	1	1380	35.61%
21	1953-04-26	19.49	Barreirense	5	1290	38.07%	@ Estoril	2	1136	42.37%
22	1952-11-09	17.66	@ Os Belenenses (1st)	3	1360	54.78%	Lusitano de Evora	0	1418	25.70%
23	1952-10-26	17.08	@ Vitoria Guimaraes	3	1143	55.78%	Estoril	0	1192	24.72%
24	1953-03-08	17.05	@ Estoril	2	1142	41.80%	Vitoria Setubal	0	1300	38.65%
25	1952-11-09	16.74	Porto	2	1360	42.72%	@ Braga	0	1174	37.82%