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1985-86 Campionato Sammarinese Season

120 games

Final

Champion

La Fiorita

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

San Giovanni

5.18 points above expected

23 points · 17.82 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Juvenes

8.13 points below expected

3 points · 11.13 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 La Fiorita 15 9 5 1 23 27 8 +19 18.83 +4.17
2 San Giovanni 15 9 5 1 23 21 6 +15 17.82 +5.18
3 Faetano 15 8 6 1 22 43 19 +24 17.46 +4.54
4 Montevito 15 8 4 3 20 23 13 +10 17.79 +2.21
5 Libertas 15 6 5 4 17 28 21 +7 14.61 +2.39
6 Dogana 15 5 6 4 16 20 20 0 15.23 +0.77
7 Tre Penne 15 6 4 5 16 18 18 0 14.84 +1.16
8 Cailungo 15 4 8 3 16 16 16 0 13.91 +2.09
9 Domagnano 15 5 5 5 15 22 19 +3 16.79 -1.79
10 Murata 15 6 2 7 14 16 23 -7 14.11 -0.11
11 Folgore Falciano 15 4 5 6 13 12 19 -7 14.59 -1.59
12 Tre Fiori 15 3 6 6 12 16 20 -4 14.59 -2.59
13 Cosmos 15 3 5 7 11 14 22 -8 13.09 -2.09
14 Aurora 15 3 5 7 11 20 37 -17 12.37 -1.37
15 Pennarossa 15 2 4 9 8 10 23 -13 12.84 -4.84
16 Juvenes 15 0 3 12 3 13 35 -22 11.13 -8.13

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 San Giovanni 23 17.82 +5.18
2 Faetano 22 17.46 +4.54
3 La Fiorita 23 18.83 +4.17
4 Libertas 17 14.61 +2.39
5 Montevito 20 17.79 +2.21

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Juvenes 3 11.13 -8.13
2 Pennarossa 8 12.84 -4.84
3 Tre Fiori 12 14.59 -2.59
4 Cosmos 11 13.09 -2.09
5 Domagnano 15 16.79 -1.79

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
San Giovanni 1643 23 +56 9 6.2 +2.8
La Fiorita 1663 23 +52 8 6.9 +1.1
Faetano 1683 22 +92 8 6.8 +1.2
Montevito 1597 20 +25 7 6.3 +0.7
Libertas 1593 17 +47 5 5.3 -0.3
Tre Penne 1503 16 +7 7 5.1 +1.9
Cailungo 1501 16 +23 6 4.8 +1.2
Dogana 1504 16 -10 5 4.7 +0.3
Domagnano 1510 15 -70 2 5.8 -3.8
Murata 1429 14 -55 5 4.9 +0.1
Folgore Falciano 1434 13 -62 2 3.9 -1.9
Tre Fiori 1443 12 -54 3 4.9 -1.9
Cosmos 1448 11 +53 6 4.8 +1.2
Aurora 1375 11 -18 4 3.2 +0.8
Pennarossa 1369 8 -55 2 3.5 -1.5
Juvenes 1304 3 -30 1 2.9 -1.9

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team AUR CAI COS DOG DOM FAE FF JUV LF LIB MON MUR PEN SG TF TP
Aurora —
1-0-0
1.01
1-0-0
1.43
0-0-1
1.40
0-0-1
1.33
0-0-1
0.66
0-1-0
1.25
1-0-0
1.22
0-0-1
0.66
0-1-0
1.16
0-1-0
0.74
0-0-1
1.30
0-1-0
1.44
0-0-1
1.07
0-0-1
1.05
0-1-0
0.94
Cailungo
0-0-1
1.65
 —
1-0-0
1.33
0-1-0
1.07
0-1-0
1.29
0-0-1
1.31
0-1-0
1.16
1-0-0
1.52
0-0-1
0.85
1-0-0
1.09
0-1-0
0.93
0-1-0
1.24
1-0-0
1.40
0-1-0
0.92
0-1-0
1.45
0-1-0
1.25
Cosmos
0-0-1
1.23
0-0-1
1.33
 —
0-0-1
1.05
0-1-0
0.79
0-0-1
0.79
0-1-0
1.13
0-1-0
1.75
0-0-1
1.26
0-1-0
1.27
1-0-0
0.91
0-1-0
1.41
0-0-1
1.33
0-0-1
0.81
1-0-0
1.22
1-0-0
0.95
Dogana
1-0-0
1.25
0-1-0
1.58
1-0-0
1.61
 —
0-1-0
1.29
0-0-1
1.01
0-0-1
1.47
1-0-0
1.91
0-1-0
0.83
0-0-1
1.60
0-1-0
1.03
1-0-0
1.40
0-1-0
1.66
0-0-1
0.91
1-0-0
1.33
0-1-0
1.33
Domagnano
1-0-0
1.33
0-1-0
1.37
0-1-0
1.88
0-1-0
1.37
 —
1-0-0
1.07
0-0-1
1.49
0-1-0
2.04
1-0-0
1.14
0-0-1
1.48
0-0-1
1.31
0-0-1
1.71
1-0-0
1.71
0-1-0
1.25
1-0-0
1.66
0-0-1
1.59
Faetano
1-0-0
2.02
1-0-0
1.35
1-0-0
1.88
1-0-0
1.65
0-0-1
1.59
 —
0-1-0
1.94
1-0-0
1.92
0-1-0
1.22
0-1-0
1.53
1-0-0
1.07
1-0-0
1.56
0-1-0
1.96
0-1-0
1.11
0-1-0
1.33
1-0-0
1.39
Folgore Falciano
0-1-0
1.41
0-1-0
1.50
0-1-0
1.52
1-0-0
1.18
1-0-0
1.17
0-1-0
0.74
 —
1-0-0
1.51
0-0-1
0.86
0-0-1
1.35
0-0-1
0.84
0-0-1
1.61
1-0-0
1.33
0-0-1
1.11
0-1-0
1.22
0-0-1
1.39
Juvenes
0-0-1
1.43
0-0-1
1.14
0-1-0
0.91
0-0-1
0.76
0-1-0
0.64
0-0-1
0.75
0-0-1
1.14
 —
0-0-1
0.48
0-0-1
1.19
0-0-1
0.89
0-0-1
0.93
0-0-1
1.40
0-0-1
0.49
0-1-0
1.28
0-0-1
0.92
La Fiorita
1-0-0
2.02
1-0-0
1.82
1-0-0
1.39
0-1-0
1.83
0-0-1
1.52
0-1-0
1.44
1-0-0
1.80
1-0-0
2.23
 —
1-0-0
1.70
0-1-0
1.39
1-0-0
1.73
1-0-0
1.87
0-1-0
1.58
0-1-0
1.71
1-0-0
1.52
Libertas
0-1-0
1.50
0-0-1
1.57
0-1-0
1.38
1-0-0
1.05
1-0-0
1.18
0-1-0
1.13
1-0-0
1.31
1-0-0
1.46
0-0-1
0.96
 —
0-0-1
1.33
1-0-0
1.36
0-1-0
1.78
0-0-1
1.21
1-0-0
1.30
0-1-0
1.24
Montevito
0-1-0
1.93
0-1-0
1.73
0-0-1
1.75
0-1-0
1.63
1-0-0
1.34
0-0-1
1.59
1-0-0
1.83
1-0-0
1.77
0-1-0
1.27
1-0-0
1.33
 —
1-0-0
1.63
1-0-0
1.60
1-0-0
1.18
1-0-0
1.71
0-0-1
1.82
Murata
1-0-0
1.36
0-1-0
1.41
0-1-0
1.24
0-0-1
1.26
1-0-0
0.95
0-0-1
1.10
1-0-0
1.05
1-0-0
1.73
0-0-1
0.94
0-0-1
1.30
0-0-1
1.03
 —
1-0-0
1.17
0-0-1
1.33
0-0-1
1.32
1-0-0
1.24
Pennarossa
0-1-0
1.21
0-0-1
1.25
1-0-0
1.32
0-1-0
1.00
0-0-1
0.95
0-1-0
0.72
0-0-1
1.33
1-0-0
1.26
0-0-1
0.80
0-1-0
0.88
0-0-1
1.06
0-0-1
1.48
 —
0-0-1
0.65
0-0-1
1.39
0-0-1
1.34
San Giovanni
1-0-0
1.58
0-1-0
1.75
1-0-0
1.86
1-0-0
1.75
0-1-0
1.40
0-1-0
1.55
1-0-0
1.55
1-0-0
2.22
0-1-0
1.08
1-0-0
1.45
0-0-1
1.48
1-0-0
1.33
1-0-0
2.04
 —
0-1-0
1.74
1-0-0
1.60
Tre Fiori
1-0-0
1.61
0-1-0
1.20
0-0-1
1.43
0-0-1
1.33
0-0-1
1.00
0-1-0
1.33
0-1-0
1.44
0-1-0
1.38
0-1-0
0.95
0-0-1
1.36
0-0-1
0.95
1-0-0
1.33
1-0-0
1.26
0-1-0
0.92
 —
0-0-1
1.30
Tre Penne
0-1-0
1.73
0-1-0
1.40
0-0-1
1.71
0-1-0
1.33
1-0-0
1.07
0-0-1
1.27
1-0-0
1.27
1-0-0
1.74
0-0-1
1.14
0-1-0
1.42
1-0-0
0.84
0-0-1
1.41
1-0-0
1.32
0-0-1
1.06
1-0-0
1.35
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.49 +4.8
Allowed 0.67 -5.6
Differential 0.90 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.67%10.00%5.00%2.92%2.08%1.25%32.92%
110.00%11.67%5.42%2.92%0.83%0.83%31.67%
25.00%5.42%5.83%1.25%0.42%—17.92%
32.92%2.92%1.25%2.50%—0.83%10.42%
42.08%0.83%0.42%———3.33%
5+1.25%0.83%—0.83%—0.83%3.75%
Total32.92%31.67%17.92%10.42%3.33%3.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.39 1.39 1.96
CV 1.05 1.05 —
Max 8 8 +8
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 120

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%—6.67%13.33%—6.67%33.33%
16.67%13.33%—13.33%——33.33%
26.67%—6.67%———13.33%
3—6.67%———6.67%13.33%
4———————
5+—————6.67%6.67%
Total20.00%20.00%13.33%26.67%—20.00%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.47 -1.13
SD 1.45 2.23 2.50
CV 1.09 0.90 —
Max 5 8 +2
Min 0 0 -8

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%6.67%6.67%—6.67%—40.00%
16.67%26.67%————33.33%
26.67%—————6.67%
3—13.33%—6.67%——20.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%46.67%6.67%6.67%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.07 +0.00
SD 1.16 1.16 1.56
CV 1.09 1.09 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%20.00%——6.67%—33.33%
16.67%20.00%13.33%——6.67%46.67%
2—6.67%6.67%———13.33%
36.67%—————6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%46.67%20.00%—6.67%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.93 1.47 -0.53
SD 0.88 1.41 1.77
CV 0.95 0.96 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%6.67%————26.67%
113.33%6.67%6.67%—13.33%—40.00%
2—6.67%6.67%———13.33%
36.67%——6.67%——13.33%
4——6.67%———6.67%
5+———————
Total40.00%20.00%20.00%6.67%13.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 1.33 +0.00
SD 1.23 1.45 1.60
CV 0.93 1.09 —
Max 4 4 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%13.33%6.67%———33.33%
1—6.67%—6.67%——13.33%
26.67%13.33%13.33%6.67%——40.00%
3—6.67%————6.67%
4———————
5+—6.67%————6.67%
Total20.00%46.67%20.00%13.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.47 1.27 +0.20
SD 1.41 0.96 1.61
CV 0.96 0.76 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%—————13.33%
16.67%6.67%———6.67%20.00%
26.67%—6.67%———13.33%
3———13.33%——13.33%
413.33%6.67%————20.00%
5+6.67%6.67%—6.67%——20.00%
Total46.67%20.00%6.67%20.00%—6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.87 1.27 +1.60
SD 2.20 1.58 2.77
CV 0.77 1.25 —
Max 8 5 +8
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%20.00%6.67%——6.67%46.67%
113.33%6.67%6.67%———26.67%
2—13.33%13.33%———26.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total26.67%40.00%26.67%——6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.80 1.27 -0.47
SD 0.86 1.28 1.55
CV 1.08 1.01 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—13.33%6.67%6.67%6.67%—33.33%
1—13.33%13.33%20.00%——46.67%
2——6.67%6.67%6.67%—20.00%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—26.67%26.67%33.33%13.33%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.87 2.33 -1.47
SD 0.74 1.05 1.13
CV 0.86 0.45 —
Max 2 4 +0
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%—————20.00%
113.33%6.67%6.67%———26.67%
26.67%13.33%6.67%———26.67%
36.67%6.67%————13.33%
46.67%—————6.67%
5+6.67%—————6.67%
Total60.00%26.67%13.33%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.80 0.53 +1.27
SD 1.47 0.74 1.67
CV 0.82 1.39 —
Max 5 2 +5
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%6.67%6.67%—6.67%—33.33%
16.67%——6.67%——13.33%
2—6.67%13.33%———20.00%
36.67%—6.67%6.67%——20.00%
4—6.67%————6.67%
5+6.67%—————6.67%
Total33.33%20.00%26.67%13.33%6.67%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.87 1.40 +0.47
SD 1.96 1.30 2.56
CV 1.05 0.93 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%20.00%————26.67%
120.00%13.33%————33.33%
213.33%6.67%————20.00%
3——6.67%———6.67%
46.67%—————6.67%
5+—————6.67%6.67%
Total46.67%40.00%6.67%——6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.53 0.87 +0.67
SD 1.51 1.30 1.35
CV 0.98 1.50 —
Max 5 5 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—6.67%13.33%—6.67%6.67%33.33%
120.00%13.33%6.67%———40.00%
26.67%——6.67%——13.33%
313.33%—————13.33%
4———————
5+———————
Total40.00%20.00%20.00%6.67%6.67%6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.53 -0.47
SD 1.03 1.96 2.64
CV 0.97 1.28 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%20.00%20.00%13.33%——60.00%
16.67%6.67%6.67%———20.00%
26.67%—6.67%———13.33%
3———6.67%——6.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total20.00%26.67%33.33%20.00%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.53 -0.87
SD 0.98 1.06 1.41
CV 1.46 0.69 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%6.67%————26.67%
113.33%13.33%————26.67%
220.00%13.33%————33.33%
3—6.67%————6.67%
46.67%—————6.67%
5+———————
Total60.00%40.00%————100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.40 0.40 +1.00
SD 1.18 0.51 1.25
CV 0.85 1.27 —
Max 4 1 +4
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
020.00%6.67%—6.67%——33.33%
16.67%20.00%26.67%———53.33%
2———————
3——6.67%———6.67%
4———————
5+———6.67%——6.67%
Total26.67%26.67%33.33%13.33%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.07 1.33 -0.27
SD 1.33 1.05 1.16
CV 1.25 0.78 —
Max 5 3 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 15

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%13.33%6.67%6.67%——33.33%
120.00%13.33%————33.33%
2—6.67%6.67%———13.33%
36.67%6.67%———6.67%20.00%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%40.00%13.33%6.67%—6.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.20 1.20 +0.00
SD 1.15 1.37 1.60
CV 0.96 1.14 —
Max 3 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 15

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Faetano 1683 22 17.46 +4.54 97.0% 10 13 16 17 20 22 24
La Fiorita 1663 23 18.83 +4.17 98.0% 10 14 17 19 21 23 24
San Giovanni 1643 23 17.82 +5.18 99.0% 10 13 16 18 20 21 24
Montevito 1597 20 17.79 +2.21 79.0% 10 12 16 18 20 24 27
Libertas 1593 17 14.61 +2.39 91.0% 8 9 13 15 17 19 22
Domagnano 1510 15 16.79 -1.79 36.0% 9 12 15 17 19 23 24
Dogana 1504 16 15.23 +0.77 67.0% 10 10 13 15 18 20 23
Tre Penne 1503 16 14.84 +1.16 76.0% 8 10 13 15 16 19 21
Cailungo 1501 16 13.91 +2.09 82.0% 4 9 12 14 16 18 20
Cosmos 1448 11 13.09 -2.09 35.0% 6 8 11 13 15 18 23
Tre Fiori 1443 12 14.59 -2.59 25.0% 8 10 12 15 17 19 21
Folgore Falciano 1434 13 14.59 -1.59 35.0% 8 10 12 15 17 19 21
Murata 1429 14 14.11 -0.11 54.0% 6 9 12 14 16 19 20
Aurora 1375 11 12.37 -1.37 37.0% 6 7 11 12 14 17 19
Pennarossa 1369 8 12.84 -4.84 12.0% 3 7 10 13 16 18 20
Juvenes 1304 3 11.13 -8.13 0.0% 5 7 9 11 13 16 18

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-7.50%
No Edge
30.00%32.50%37.50%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -26.11 Elo pts.
154 Elo
0.007 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.24 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.17+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd to 3rd * Middle of the Pack: 4th to 8th * Longshot: 9th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
5.5
Open
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
30%
La Fiorita, 1st of 16
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.00/gm
Photo Finish
00.120.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.36 * Some Luck: 2.36 to 3.55 * Lucky: 3.55 to 4.73 * Wild Swing: 4.73 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 2.63 * Close: 2.63 to 3.94 * Off: 3.94 to 5.26 * Way Off: 5.26 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 16 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 16 * As Expected: 16 to 25.6 * Several Outliers: 25.6 to 35.2 * Many Outliers: 35.2 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.45 points
Some Luck
02.967
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.25
Pinpoint
03.298
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 96.88%
99.00%
San Giovanni
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 3.12%
0.00%
Juvenes
050
Season Outliers
Expected
4 of 16
Minimal Outliers
01.68

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.20
Balanced
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 111.12
1.72
Moderate Separation
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
72%
Even
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
90%
Even
50%92%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
16%
Rare
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.25
Very Even
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.46
Chaotic
01.002
Repeatability
N/A
No prior ratings
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%25%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
18%
Shaky Favorites
0%19%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.25 * Above Noise: 0.25 to 0.33 * Well Above Noise: 0.33 and up.
Probability calibration
0.29
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.24
Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.077
Well Within Noise
00.1650.4

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910111213141516
La Fiorita30.00%21.00%11.00%4.00%13.00%4.00%2.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%2.00%———1.00%—
San Giovanni18.00%14.00%18.00%13.00%5.00%11.00%4.00%4.00%5.00%2.00%2.00%3.00%——1.00%—
Faetano16.00%15.00%11.00%13.00%11.00%9.00%4.00%2.00%4.00%3.00%7.00%3.00%1.00%——1.00%
Montevito16.00%14.00%7.00%13.00%14.00%7.00%8.00%1.00%5.00%1.00%4.00%6.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%—
Libertas2.00%3.00%6.00%2.00%9.00%8.00%11.00%10.00%5.00%12.00%8.00%3.00%6.00%6.00%5.00%4.00%
Dogana3.00%4.00%14.00%6.00%5.00%6.00%7.00%7.00%7.00%5.00%5.00%7.00%11.00%8.00%4.00%1.00%
Tre Penne2.00%4.00%3.00%6.00%5.00%8.00%7.00%8.00%12.00%11.00%9.00%6.00%7.00%3.00%7.00%2.00%
Cailungo—1.00%6.00%4.00%6.00%6.00%10.00%6.00%6.00%13.00%8.00%13.00%6.00%6.00%6.00%3.00%
Domagnano8.00%7.00%14.00%12.00%10.00%6.00%5.00%8.00%11.00%5.00%4.00%4.00%1.00%3.00%1.00%1.00%
Murata2.00%1.00%5.00%4.00%5.00%7.00%6.00%9.00%7.00%6.00%11.00%6.00%9.00%12.00%6.00%4.00%
Folgore Falciano1.00%4.00%1.00%7.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%13.00%9.00%7.00%7.00%5.00%13.00%6.00%3.00%6.00%
Tre Fiori1.00%7.00%1.00%5.00%4.00%11.00%10.00%7.00%7.00%5.00%6.00%10.00%7.00%10.00%8.00%1.00%
Cosmos1.00%2.00%2.00%6.00%—3.00%7.00%6.00%4.00%7.00%10.00%11.00%8.00%10.00%10.00%13.00%
Aurora—1.00%—1.00%3.00%2.00%3.00%5.00%5.00%8.00%7.00%10.00%15.00%11.00%13.00%16.00%
Pennarossa—1.00%—4.00%6.00%4.00%5.00%5.00%6.00%12.00%6.00%4.00%7.00%7.00%16.00%17.00%
Juvenes—1.00%1.00%——2.00%3.00%3.00%2.00%2.00%4.00%9.00%8.00%16.00%18.00%31.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
La Fiorita 96.00% 4.00%
San Giovanni 92.00% 8.00%
Faetano 85.00% 15.00%
Montevito 85.00% 15.00%
Domagnano 81.00% 19.00%
Dogana 59.00% 41.00%
Libertas 56.00% 44.00%
Tre Penne 55.00% 45.00%
Folgore Falciano 53.00% 47.00%
Tre Fiori 53.00% 47.00%
Murata 46.00% 54.00%
Cailungo 45.00% 55.00%
Cosmos 31.00% 69.00%
Pennarossa 31.00% 69.00%
Aurora 20.00% 80.00%
Juvenes 12.00% 88.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1985-10-01 Domagnano L 1-355.0 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%-0.17 -24.4 0
1985-10-01 @ Aurora W 3-155.0 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%+0.17 +24.4 2
1985-10-01 Cosmos W 1-052.9 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%-0.17 +15.0 2
1985-10-01 @ Cailungo L 0-152.9 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%+0.17 -15.0 0
1985-10-01 Tre Penne D 1-159.5 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%-0.17 +0.0 1
1985-10-01 @ Dogana D 1-159.5 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%+0.17 +0.0 1
1985-10-01 Tre Fiori D 0-055.3 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%-0.17 +0.0 1
1985-10-01 @ Faetano D 0-055.3 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%+0.17 +0.0 1
1985-10-01 Pennarossa W 2-157.7 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%-0.17 +14.1 2
1985-10-01 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-257.7 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%+0.17 -14.1 0
1985-10-01 Montevito L 0-447.5 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%-0.17 -53.5 0
1985-10-01 @ Libertas W 4-047.5 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%+0.17 +53.5 2
1985-10-01 San Giovanni L 0-447.5 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%-0.17 -53.5 0
1985-10-01 @ Murata W 4-047.5 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%+0.17 +53.5 2
1985-10-08 Juvenes W 3-155.1 1476 1500 29.35% 34.45% 36.20%-0.33 +26.1 2
1985-10-08 @ Aurora L 1-355.1 1500 1476 36.20% 34.45% 29.35%+0.33 -26.1 0
1985-10-08 Domagnano D 0-056.7 1515 1524 31.41% 34.48% 34.11%-0.23 +0.2 3
1985-10-08 @ Cailungo D 0-056.7 1524 1515 34.11% 34.48% 31.41%+0.23 -0.2 3
1985-10-08 La Fiorita L 0-446.3 1485 1500 30.65% 34.47% 34.88%-0.27 -51.2 0
1985-10-08 @ Cosmos W 4-046.3 1500 1485 34.88% 34.47% 30.65%+0.27 +51.2 2
1985-10-08 Tre Fiori W 1-052.9 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%-0.17 +15.0 3
1985-10-08 @ Dogana L 0-152.9 1500 1500 32.76% 34.48% 32.76%+0.17 -15.0 1
1985-10-08 San Giovanni D 0-057.3 1500 1553 25.61% 34.32% 40.08%-0.52 +1.3 2
1985-10-08 @ Faetano D 0-057.3 1553 1500 40.08% 34.32% 25.61%+0.52 -1.3 3
1985-10-08 Pennarossa W 1-051.6 1553 1486 41.86% 34.22% 23.92%+0.27 +12.1 4
1985-10-08 @ Montevito L 0-151.6 1486 1553 23.92% 34.22% 41.86%-0.27 -12.1 0
1985-10-08 Tre Penne L 0-154.0 1514 1500 34.76% 34.47% 30.77%-0.08 -15.5 2
1985-10-08 @ Folgore Falciano W 1-054.0 1500 1514 30.77% 34.47% 34.76%+0.08 +15.5 3
1985-10-15 Pennarossa D 1-158.6 1502 1474 36.68% 34.44% 28.89%+0.01 -0.6 3
1985-10-15 @ Aurora D 1-158.6 1474 1502 28.89% 34.44% 36.68%-0.01 +0.6 1
1985-10-15 Tre Fiori D 1-159.5 1515 1485 36.98% 34.43% 28.59%+0.03 -0.7 4
1985-10-15 @ Cailungo D 1-159.5 1485 1515 28.59% 34.43% 36.98%-0.03 +0.7 2
1985-10-15 Libertas D 0-051.1 1434 1447 30.97% 34.47% 34.56%-0.25 +0.3 1
1985-10-15 @ Cosmos D 0-051.1 1447 1434 34.56% 34.47% 30.97%+0.25 -0.3 1
1985-10-15 Domagnano D 2-265.8 1515 1524 31.45% 34.48% 34.08%-0.23 +0.1 4
1985-10-15 @ Dogana D 2-265.8 1524 1515 34.08% 34.48% 31.45%+0.23 -0.2 4
1985-10-15 Montevito W 1-057.9 1501 1566 24.31% 34.24% 41.45%-0.59 +17.7 4
1985-10-15 @ Faetano L 0-157.9 1566 1501 41.45% 34.24% 24.31%+0.59 -17.7 4
1985-10-15 San Giovanni L 0-152.6 1499 1552 25.59% 34.31% 40.10%-0.52 -12.7 2
1985-10-15 @ Folgore Falciano W 1-052.6 1552 1499 40.10% 34.31% 25.59%+0.52 +12.7 5
1985-10-15 Murata W 2-153.6 1551 1447 46.25% 33.85% 19.90%+0.51 +10.0 4
1985-10-15 @ La Fiorita L 1-253.6 1447 1551 19.90% 33.85% 46.25%-0.51 -10.0 0
1985-10-22 San Giovanni L 0-249.9 1501 1565 24.37% 34.25% 41.38%-0.58 -23.1 3
1985-10-22 @ Aurora W 2-049.9 1565 1501 41.38% 34.25% 24.37%+0.58 +23.1 7
1985-10-22 Faetano L 0-448.5 1515 1519 32.12% 34.48% 33.40%-0.20 -52.8 4
1985-10-22 @ Cailungo W 4-048.5 1519 1515 33.40% 34.48% 32.12%+0.20 +52.8 6
1985-10-22 Montevito W 1-056.4 1434 1548 19.01% 33.74% 47.24%-0.91 +19.7 3
1985-10-22 @ Cosmos L 0-156.4 1548 1434 47.24% 33.74% 19.01%+0.91 -19.7 4
1985-10-22 Libertas L 1-453.9 1515 1446 42.03% 34.21% 23.76%+0.28 -41.3 4
1985-10-22 @ Dogana W 4-153.9 1446 1515 23.76% 34.21% 42.03%-0.28 +41.3 3
1985-10-22 Folgore Falciano L 0-154.8 1524 1486 38.06% 34.40% 27.54%+0.08 -16.6 4
1985-10-22 @ Domagnano W 1-054.8 1486 1524 27.54% 34.40% 38.06%-0.08 +16.6 4
1985-10-22 Tre Fiori D 1-158.0 1474 1486 31.08% 34.47% 34.45%-0.25 +0.3 1
1985-10-22 @ Juvenes D 1-158.0 1486 1474 34.45% 34.47% 31.08%+0.25 -0.3 3
1985-10-22 Tre Penne W 2-051.0 1561 1516 39.05% 34.36% 26.59%+0.13 +24.5 6
1985-10-22 @ La Fiorita L 0-251.0 1516 1561 26.59% 34.36% 39.05%-0.13 -24.5 3
1985-10-22 Pennarossa W 1-051.2 1437 1474 27.57% 34.40% 38.03%-0.42 +16.6 2
1985-10-22 @ Murata L 0-151.2 1474 1437 38.03% 34.40% 27.57%+0.42 -16.6 1
1985-10-29 Cosmos W 1-049.4 1478 1454 36.17% 34.45% 29.39%-0.01 +13.9 5
1985-10-29 @ Aurora L 0-149.4 1454 1478 29.39% 34.45% 36.17%+0.01 -13.9 3
1985-10-29 Folgore Falciano D 0-054.0 1462 1502 27.21% 34.38% 38.41%-0.43 +1.0 5
1985-10-29 @ Cailungo D 0-054.0 1502 1462 38.41% 34.38% 27.21%+0.43 -1.0 5
1985-10-29 Faetano W 5-156.5 1507 1572 24.30% 34.24% 41.46%-0.59 +52.7 6
1985-10-29 @ Domagnano L 1-556.5 1572 1507 41.46% 34.24% 24.30%+0.59 -52.7 6
1985-10-29 Murata W 2-046.4 1528 1453 42.79% 34.16% 23.06%+0.32 +22.2 6
1985-10-29 @ Montevito L 0-246.4 1453 1528 23.06% 34.16% 42.79%-0.32 -22.2 2
1985-10-29 Pennarossa L 0-248.3 1474 1458 35.07% 34.47% 30.47%-0.06 -29.5 1
1985-10-29 @ Juvenes W 2-048.3 1458 1474 30.47% 34.47% 35.07%+0.06 +29.5 3
1985-10-29 Libertas W 1-051.8 1586 1487 45.51% 33.93% 20.56%+0.47 +10.8 8
1985-10-29 @ La Fiorita L 0-151.8 1487 1586 20.56% 33.93% 45.51%-0.47 -10.8 3
1985-10-29 Tre Penne L 1-256.6 1485 1491 31.96% 34.48% 33.56%-0.21 -13.9 3
1985-10-29 @ Tre Fiori W 2-156.6 1491 1485 33.56% 34.48% 31.96%+0.21 +13.9 5
1985-11-05 Dogana L 0-347.7 1492 1474 35.33% 34.46% 30.21%-0.05 -43.1 5
1985-11-05 @ Aurora W 3-047.7 1474 1492 30.21% 34.46% 35.33%+0.05 +43.1 6
1985-11-05 La Fiorita L 0-150.1 1463 1596 17.17% 33.47% 49.37%-1.04 -9.5 5
1985-11-05 @ Cailungo W 1-050.1 1596 1463 49.37% 33.47% 17.17%+1.04 +9.5 10
1985-11-05 San Giovanni L 1-253.4 1440 1588 15.97% 33.24% 50.79%-1.13 -8.4 3
1985-11-05 @ Cosmos W 2-153.4 1588 1440 50.79% 33.24% 15.97%+1.13 +8.4 9
1985-11-05 Tre Penne W 5-360.7 1519 1505 34.77% 34.47% 30.76%-0.08 +19.8 8
1985-11-05 @ Faetano L 3-560.7 1505 1519 30.76% 34.47% 34.77%+0.08 -19.8 5
1985-11-05 Murata L 0-250.3 1501 1431 42.23% 34.19% 23.58%+0.29 -33.8 5
1985-11-05 @ Folgore Falciano W 2-050.3 1431 1501 23.58% 34.19% 42.23%-0.29 +33.8 4
1985-11-05 Libertas L 0-148.7 1445 1477 28.34% 34.42% 37.24%-0.38 -13.6 1
1985-11-05 @ Juvenes W 1-048.7 1477 1445 37.24% 34.42% 28.34%+0.38 +13.6 5
1985-11-05 Tre Fiori L 0-152.0 1487 1472 35.00% 34.47% 30.53%-0.07 -15.6 3
1985-11-05 @ Pennarossa W 1-052.0 1472 1487 30.53% 34.47% 35.00%+0.07 +15.6 5
1985-11-12 Folgore Falciano D 2-261.3 1449 1468 30.12% 34.46% 35.42%-0.29 +0.3 6
1985-11-12 @ Aurora D 2-261.3 1468 1449 35.42% 34.46% 30.12%+0.29 -0.3 6
1985-11-12 Dogana D 3-366.9 1453 1517 24.38% 34.25% 41.37%-0.58 +0.9 6
1985-11-12 @ Cailungo D 3-366.9 1517 1453 41.37% 34.25% 24.38%+0.58 -0.9 7
1985-11-12 La Fiorita W 2-165.1 1560 1606 26.56% 34.36% 39.08%-0.47 +15.9 8
1985-11-12 @ Domagnano L 1-265.1 1606 1560 39.08% 34.36% 26.56%+0.47 -15.9 10
1985-11-12 Libertas D 3-369.1 1539 1490 39.45% 34.34% 26.21%+0.15 -0.7 9
1985-11-12 @ Faetano D 3-369.1 1490 1539 26.21% 34.34% 39.45%-0.15 +0.7 6
1985-11-12 Montevito L 2-356.9 1431 1550 18.48% 33.67% 47.85%-0.95 -9.0 1
1985-11-12 @ Juvenes W 3-256.9 1550 1431 47.85% 33.67% 18.48%+0.95 +8.9 8
1985-11-12 Tre Penne W 1-051.9 1465 1485 29.90% 34.46% 35.64%-0.30 +15.8 6
1985-11-12 @ Murata L 0-151.9 1485 1465 35.64% 34.46% 29.90%+0.30 -15.8 5
1985-11-12 Tre Fiori D 1-162.7 1596 1487 46.74% 33.80% 19.46%+0.54 -2.3 10
1985-11-12 @ San Giovanni D 1-162.7 1487 1596 19.46% 33.80% 46.74%-0.54 +2.3 6
1985-11-19 Libertas D 0-053.1 1449 1491 27.08% 34.38% 38.54%-0.44 +1.0 7
1985-11-19 @ Aurora D 0-053.1 1491 1449 38.54% 34.38% 27.08%+0.44 -1.0 7
1985-11-19 Montevito D 1-160.2 1454 1559 19.84% 33.85% 46.31%-0.85 +2.3 7
1985-11-19 @ Cailungo D 1-160.2 1559 1454 46.31% 33.85% 19.84%+0.85 -2.3 9
1985-11-19 San Giovanni D 0-060.9 1576 1594 30.24% 34.46% 35.29%-0.29 +0.4 9
1985-11-19 @ Domagnano D 0-060.9 1594 1576 35.29% 34.46% 30.24%+0.29 -0.5 11
1985-11-19 Murata W 2-048.4 1538 1481 40.61% 34.29% 25.10%+0.20 +23.5 11
1985-11-19 @ Faetano L 0-248.4 1481 1538 25.10% 34.29% 40.61%-0.20 -23.6 6
1985-11-19 Juvenes W 2-151.9 1467 1422 39.00% 34.36% 26.64%+0.12 +12.3 8
1985-11-19 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-251.9 1422 1467 26.64% 34.36% 39.00%-0.12 -12.3 1
1985-11-19 Tre Fiori D 0-058.3 1590 1490 45.77% 33.90% 20.32%+0.48 -2.4 11
1985-11-19 @ La Fiorita D 0-058.3 1490 1590 20.32% 33.90% 45.77%-0.48 +2.4 7
1985-11-19 Tre Penne L 0-346.1 1472 1469 33.11% 34.48% 32.41%-0.15 -41.2 3
1985-11-19 @ Pennarossa W 3-046.1 1469 1472 32.41% 34.48% 33.11%+0.15 +41.2 7
1985-11-26 Murata L 0-344.5 1450 1457 31.79% 34.48% 33.74%-0.21 -40.1 7
1985-11-26 @ Aurora W 3-044.5 1457 1450 33.74% 34.48% 31.79%+0.21 +40.1 8
1985-11-26 Juvenes W 3-148.4 1456 1410 39.18% 34.36% 26.47%+0.13 +21.1 9
1985-11-26 @ Cailungo L 1-348.4 1410 1456 26.47% 34.36% 39.18%-0.13 -21.2 1
1985-11-26 Folgore Falciano D 2-261.2 1432 1480 26.28% 34.35% 39.38%-0.48 +0.8 4
1985-11-26 @ Cosmos D 2-261.2 1480 1432 39.38% 34.35% 26.28%+0.48 -0.8 9
1985-11-26 Pennarossa D 0-053.4 1516 1431 44.04% 34.06% 21.90%+0.39 -2.1 8
1985-11-26 @ Dogana D 0-053.4 1431 1516 21.90% 34.06% 44.04%-0.39 +2.1 4
1985-11-26 Tre Fiori W 2-156.9 1577 1492 43.93% 34.07% 22.00%+0.38 +10.7 11
1985-11-26 @ Domagnano L 1-256.9 1492 1577 22.00% 34.07% 43.93%-0.38 -10.7 7
1985-11-26 La Fiorita D 2-269.5 1562 1588 29.16% 34.44% 36.40%-0.34 +0.4 12
1985-11-26 @ Faetano D 2-269.5 1588 1562 36.40% 34.44% 29.16%+0.34 -0.4 12
1985-11-26 San Giovanni W 1-059.5 1557 1594 27.76% 34.40% 37.84%-0.41 +16.5 11
1985-11-26 @ Montevito L 0-159.5 1594 1557 37.84% 34.40% 27.76%+0.41 -16.5 11
1985-11-26 Tre Penne D 2-264.4 1490 1511 29.86% 34.46% 35.68%-0.30 +0.3 8
1985-11-26 @ Libertas D 2-264.4 1511 1490 35.68% 34.46% 29.86%+0.30 -0.3 8
1985-12-03 Tre Fiori L 3-553.7 1410 1481 23.50% 34.19% 42.31%-0.63 -16.5 7
1985-12-03 @ Aurora W 5-353.7 1481 1410 42.31% 34.19% 23.50%+0.63 +16.5 9
1985-12-03 Murata D 1-158.5 1478 1497 30.01% 34.46% 35.53%-0.30 +0.4 10
1985-12-03 @ Cailungo D 1-158.5 1497 1478 35.53% 34.46% 30.01%+0.30 -0.4 9
1985-12-03 Domagnano D 1-160.6 1432 1587 15.41% 33.13% 51.47%-1.18 +3.2 5
1985-12-03 @ Cosmos D 1-160.6 1587 1432 51.47% 33.13% 15.41%+1.18 -3.2 12
1985-12-03 Folgore Falciano L 0-154.1 1514 1479 37.66% 34.41% 27.93%+0.06 -16.5 8
1985-12-03 @ Dogana W 1-054.1 1479 1514 27.93% 34.41% 37.66%-0.06 +16.5 11
1985-12-03 Juvenes W 4-039.5 1562 1389 53.19% 32.80% 14.02%+0.96 +28.8 14
1985-12-03 @ Faetano L 0-439.5 1389 1562 14.02% 32.80% 53.19%-0.96 -28.8 1
1985-12-03 Montevito D 1-164.9 1587 1574 34.69% 34.47% 30.84%-0.08 -0.3 13
1985-12-03 @ La Fiorita D 1-164.9 1574 1587 30.84% 34.47% 34.69%+0.08 +0.3 12
1985-12-03 Tre Penne W 1-053.4 1577 1510 41.77% 34.22% 24.00%+0.26 +12.1 13
1985-12-03 @ San Giovanni L 0-153.4 1510 1577 24.00% 34.22% 41.77%-0.26 -12.1 8
1985-12-10 Tre Penne D 1-155.8 1394 1498 19.92% 33.86% 46.23%-0.85 +2.2 8
1985-12-10 @ Aurora D 1-155.8 1498 1394 46.23% 33.86% 19.92%+0.85 -2.3 9
1985-12-10 Faetano L 1-546.5 1436 1591 15.37% 33.12% 51.51%-1.18 -25.9 5
1985-12-10 @ Cosmos W 5-146.5 1591 1436 51.51% 33.12% 15.37%+1.18 +25.9 16
1985-12-10 Montevito D 0-058.0 1497 1574 22.91% 34.15% 42.95%-0.67 +1.9 9
1985-12-10 @ Dogana D 0-058.0 1574 1497 42.95% 34.15% 22.91%+0.67 -1.9 13
1985-12-10 Juvenes D 2-263.1 1584 1360 57.43% 31.73% 10.84%+1.29 -3.3 13
1985-12-10 @ Domagnano D 2-263.1 1360 1584 10.84% 31.73% 57.43%-1.29 +3.3 2
1985-12-10 Libertas L 1-257.4 1495 1490 33.48% 34.48% 32.04%-0.14 -14.3 11
1985-12-10 @ Folgore Falciano W 2-157.4 1490 1495 32.04% 34.48% 33.48%+0.14 +14.3 10
1985-12-10 Pennarossa W 3-043.3 1587 1433 51.40% 33.14% 15.46%+0.83 +23.9 15
1985-12-10 @ La Fiorita L 0-343.3 1433 1587 15.46% 33.14% 51.40%-0.83 -23.9 4
1985-12-10 Tre Fiori L 2-361.9 1497 1498 32.62% 34.48% 32.90%-0.18 -13.3 9
1985-12-10 @ Murata W 3-261.9 1498 1497 32.90% 34.48% 32.62%+0.18 +13.3 11
1986-03-01 Montevito D 5-570.0 1396 1572 13.83% 32.74% 53.43%-1.32 +1.8 9
1986-03-01 @ Aurora D 5-570.0 1572 1396 53.43% 32.74% 13.83%+1.32 -1.8 14
1986-03-01 Tre Penne D 0-054.3 1478 1496 30.25% 34.46% 35.29%-0.29 +0.4 11
1986-03-01 @ Cailungo D 0-054.3 1496 1478 35.29% 34.46% 30.25%+0.29 -0.4 10
1986-03-01 Pennarossa L 0-147.0 1410 1409 32.89% 34.48% 32.62%-0.16 -15.0 5
1986-03-01 @ Cosmos W 1-047.0 1409 1410 32.62% 34.48% 32.89%+0.16 +15.0 6
1986-03-01 Murata W 1-051.6 1499 1483 35.03% 34.47% 30.51%-0.07 +14.3 11
1986-03-01 @ Dogana L 0-151.6 1483 1499 30.51% 34.47% 35.03%+0.07 -14.3 9
1986-03-01 La Fiorita L 0-546.1 1481 1611 17.52% 33.52% 48.95%-1.01 -42.4 11
1986-03-01 @ Folgore Falciano W 5-046.1 1611 1481 48.95% 33.52% 17.52%+1.01 +42.4 17
1986-03-01 Tre Fiori W 3-049.0 1504 1511 31.82% 34.48% 33.70%-0.21 +41.7 12
1986-03-01 @ Libertas L 0-349.0 1511 1504 33.70% 34.48% 31.82%+0.21 -41.7 11
1986-03-08 San Giovanni D 1-162.2 1478 1589 19.30% 33.78% 46.92%-0.89 +2.4 12
1986-03-08 @ Cailungo D 1-162.2 1589 1478 46.92% 33.78% 19.30%+0.89 -2.4 14
1986-03-08 Tre Penne W 3-048.0 1395 1495 20.30% 33.90% 45.80%-0.82 +52.5 7
1986-03-08 @ Cosmos L 0-348.0 1495 1395 45.80% 33.90% 20.30%+0.82 -52.5 10
1986-03-08 La Fiorita D 0-061.1 1514 1653 16.68% 33.38% 49.95%-1.08 +3.3 12
1986-03-08 @ Dogana D 0-061.1 1653 1514 49.95% 33.38% 16.68%+1.08 -3.3 18
1986-03-08 Folgore Falciano D 1-162.0 1617 1439 53.62% 32.70% 13.68%+0.99 -3.6 17
1986-03-08 @ Faetano D 1-162.0 1439 1617 13.68% 32.70% 53.62%-0.99 +3.7 12
1986-03-08 Tre Fiori W 2-155.3 1570 1469 45.83% 33.90% 20.28%+0.49 +10.1 16
1986-03-08 @ Montevito L 1-255.3 1469 1570 20.28% 33.90% 45.83%-0.49 -10.1 11
1986-03-08 Murata L 0-338.5 1363 1469 19.77% 33.84% 46.39%-0.86 -28.8 2
1986-03-08 @ Juvenes W 3-038.5 1469 1363 46.39% 33.84% 19.77%+0.86 +28.8 11
1986-03-08 Pennarossa D 2-263.5 1546 1424 48.19% 33.63% 18.18%+0.63 -2.0 13
1986-03-08 @ Libertas D 2-263.5 1424 1546 18.18% 33.63% 48.19%-0.63 +2.0 7
1986-03-15 Cailungo W 2-049.0 1398 1481 22.15% 34.08% 43.77%-0.71 +34.8 11
1986-03-15 @ Aurora L 0-249.0 1481 1398 43.77% 34.08% 22.15%+0.71 -34.8 12
1986-03-15 Dogana L 1-253.6 1447 1517 23.67% 34.20% 42.13%-0.62 -11.3 7
1986-03-15 @ Cosmos W 2-153.6 1517 1447 42.13% 34.20% 23.67%+0.62 +11.3 14
1986-03-15 Libertas L 2-368.0 1581 1544 37.85% 34.40% 27.75%+0.07 -14.8 13
1986-03-15 @ Domagnano W 3-268.0 1544 1581 27.75% 34.40% 37.85%-0.07 +14.8 15
1986-03-15 Pennarossa D 3-370.0 1613 1426 54.43% 32.52% 13.05%+1.05 -2.4 18
1986-03-15 @ Faetano D 3-370.0 1426 1613 13.05% 32.52% 54.43%-1.05 +2.4 8
1986-03-15 Montevito L 0-148.6 1442 1580 16.79% 33.40% 49.81%-1.07 -9.3 12
1986-03-15 @ Folgore Falciano W 1-048.6 1580 1442 49.81% 33.40% 16.79%+1.07 +9.3 18
1986-03-15 Tre Penne L 0-141.9 1334 1443 19.51% 33.81% 46.68%-0.88 -10.4 2
1986-03-15 @ Juvenes W 1-041.9 1443 1334 46.68% 33.81% 19.51%+0.88 +10.4 12
1986-03-15 San Giovanni D 0-062.4 1650 1587 41.30% 34.25% 24.45%+0.24 -1.5 19
1986-03-15 @ La Fiorita D 0-062.4 1587 1650 24.45% 34.25% 41.30%-0.24 +1.5 15
1986-03-22 La Fiorita L 1-350.7 1432 1648 11.30% 31.92% 56.78%-1.57 -10.9 11
1986-03-22 @ Aurora W 3-150.7 1648 1432 56.78% 31.92% 11.30%+1.57 +10.9 21
1986-03-22 Pennarossa W 2-044.9 1446 1428 35.31% 34.46% 30.23%-0.05 +26.7 14
1986-03-22 @ Cailungo L 0-244.9 1428 1446 30.23% 34.46% 35.31%+0.05 -26.7 8
1986-03-22 Juvenes D 1-152.5 1436 1324 47.06% 33.77% 19.18%+0.56 -2.4 8
1986-03-22 @ Cosmos D 1-152.5 1324 1436 19.18% 33.77% 47.06%-0.56 +2.4 3
1986-03-22 Faetano L 1-454.1 1528 1611 22.21% 34.09% 43.70%-0.71 -26.5 14
1986-03-22 @ Dogana W 4-154.1 1611 1528 43.70% 34.09% 22.21%+0.71 +26.5 20
1986-03-22 Tre Penne L 0-159.2 1590 1453 49.63% 33.43% 16.95%+0.72 -20.5 18
1986-03-22 @ Montevito W 1-059.2 1453 1590 16.95% 33.43% 49.63%-0.72 +20.5 14
1986-03-22 Tre Fiori D 0-051.4 1433 1459 29.10% 34.44% 36.46%-0.34 +0.6 13
1986-03-22 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-051.4 1459 1433 36.46% 34.44% 29.10%+0.34 -0.7 12
1986-03-22 San Giovanni L 0-253.9 1559 1588 28.70% 34.43% 36.87%-0.36 -25.8 15
1986-03-22 @ Libertas W 2-053.9 1588 1559 36.87% 34.43% 28.70%+0.36 +25.8 17
1986-03-29 Faetano L 0-844.2 1422 1637 11.31% 31.92% 56.77%-1.57 -46.1 11
1986-03-29 @ Aurora W 8-044.2 1637 1422 56.77% 31.92% 11.31%+1.57 +46.1 22
1986-03-29 Libertas W 3-157.6 1473 1533 24.76% 34.27% 40.97%-0.56 +28.6 16
1986-03-29 @ Cailungo L 1-357.6 1533 1473 40.97% 34.27% 24.76%+0.56 -28.6 15
1986-03-29 Tre Fiori W 2-154.9 1433 1459 29.26% 34.44% 36.30%-0.33 +15.1 10
1986-03-29 @ Cosmos L 1-254.9 1459 1433 36.30% 34.44% 29.26%+0.33 -15.1 12
1986-03-29 San Giovanni L 1-257.5 1502 1614 19.14% 33.76% 47.10%-0.90 -9.7 14
1986-03-29 @ Dogana W 2-157.5 1614 1502 47.10% 33.76% 19.14%+0.90 +9.7 19
1986-03-29 Montevito L 0-254.6 1566 1569 32.31% 34.48% 33.21%-0.19 -27.9 13
1986-03-29 @ Domagnano W 2-054.6 1569 1566 33.21% 34.48% 32.31%+0.19 +27.9 20
1986-03-29 La Fiorita L 1-247.6 1326 1659 6.39% 28.78% 64.83%-2.33 -3.6 3
1986-03-29 @ Juvenes W 2-147.6 1659 1326 64.83% 28.78% 6.39%+2.33 +3.6 23
1986-04-05 Juvenes W 4-246.6 1492 1323 52.81% 32.87% 14.32%+0.93 +12.0 16
1986-04-05 @ Dogana L 2-446.6 1323 1492 14.32% 32.87% 52.81%-0.93 -12.0 3
1986-04-05 Tre Penne L 1-358.0 1538 1474 41.44% 34.24% 24.31%+0.25 -28.9 13
1986-04-05 @ Domagnano W 3-158.0 1474 1538 24.31% 34.24% 41.44%-0.25 +28.9 16
1986-04-05 Murata W 7-048.5 1505 1498 33.71% 34.48% 31.81%-0.13 +88.9 17
1986-04-05 @ Libertas L 0-748.5 1498 1505 31.81% 34.48% 33.71%+0.13 -88.9 11
1986-04-05 San Giovanni L 0-243.6 1401 1624 10.93% 31.77% 57.30%-1.62 -12.3 8
1986-04-05 @ Pennarossa W 2-043.6 1624 1401 57.30% 31.77% 10.93%+1.62 +12.3 21
1986-04-12 Murata L 0-153.6 1509 1409 45.74% 33.91% 20.36%+0.48 -19.1 13
1986-04-12 @ Domagnano W 1-053.6 1409 1509 20.36% 33.91% 45.74%-0.48 +19.1 13
1986-04-12 San Giovanni L 1-343.5 1311 1636 6.62% 29.01% 64.37%-2.28 -6.5 3
1986-04-12 @ Juvenes W 3-143.5 1636 1311 64.37% 29.01% 6.62%+2.28 +6.5 23
1986-04-19 Murata D 1-155.2 1449 1428 35.64% 34.46% 29.90%-0.04 -0.5 11
1986-04-19 @ Cosmos D 1-155.2 1428 1449 29.90% 34.46% 35.64%+0.04 +0.5 14
1986-04-19 Pennarossa W 2-041.9 1490 1389 45.84% 33.90% 20.27%+0.49 +20.2 15
1986-04-19 @ Domagnano L 0-241.9 1389 1490 20.27% 33.90% 45.84%-0.49 -20.2 8

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1986-03-22 16.95% Tre Penne 1453 1 @ Montevito 1590 0
2 1985-10-22 19.01% @ Cosmos 1434 1 Montevito 1548 0
3 1986-03-08 20.30% @ Cosmos 1395 3 Tre Penne 1495 0
4 1986-04-12 20.36% Murata 1409 1 @ Domagnano 1509 0
5 1986-03-15 22.15% @ Aurora 1398 2 Cailungo 1481 0
6 1985-11-05 23.58% Murata 1431 2 @ Folgore Falciano 1501 0
7 1985-10-22 23.76% Libertas 1446 4 @ Dogana 1515 1
8 1985-10-29 24.30% @ Domagnano 1507 5 Faetano 1572 1
9 1985-10-15 24.31% @ Faetano 1501 1 Montevito 1566 0
10 1986-04-05 24.31% Tre Penne 1474 3 @ Domagnano 1538 1
11 1986-03-29 24.76% @ Cailungo 1473 3 Libertas 1533 1
12 1985-11-12 26.56% @ Domagnano 1560 2 La Fiorita 1606 1
13 1985-10-22 27.54% Folgore Falciano 1486 1 @ Domagnano 1524 0
14 1985-10-22 27.57% @ Murata 1437 1 Pennarossa 1474 0
15 1986-03-15 27.75% Libertas 1544 3 @ Domagnano 1581 2
16 1985-11-26 27.76% @ Montevito 1557 1 San Giovanni 1594 0
17 1985-12-03 27.93% Folgore Falciano 1479 1 @ Dogana 1514 0
18 1986-03-29 29.26% @ Cosmos 1433 2 Tre Fiori 1459 1
19 1985-10-08 29.35% @ Aurora 1476 3 Juvenes 1500 1
20 1985-11-12 29.90% @ Murata 1465 1 Tre Penne 1485 0
21 1985-11-05 30.21% Dogana 1474 3 @ Aurora 1492 0
22 1985-10-29 30.47% Pennarossa 1458 2 @ Juvenes 1474 0
23 1985-11-05 30.53% Tre Fiori 1472 1 @ Pennarossa 1487 0
24 1985-10-08 30.77% Tre Penne 1500 1 @ Folgore Falciano 1514 0
25 1986-03-01 31.82% @ Libertas 1504 3 Tre Fiori 1511 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-04-05 88.89 @ Libertas 7 1505 33.71% Murata 0 1498 31.81% 34.48%
2 1985-10-01 53.48 Montevito 4 1500 32.76% @ Libertas 0 1500 32.76% 34.48%
3 1985-10-01 53.48 San Giovanni 4 1500 32.76% @ Murata 0 1500 32.76% 34.48%
4 1985-10-22 52.79 Faetano 4 1519 33.40% @ Cailungo 0 1515 32.12% 34.48%
5 1985-10-29 52.73 @ Domagnano 5 1507 24.30% Faetano 1 1572 41.46% 34.24%
6 1986-03-08 52.48 @ Cosmos 3 1395 20.30% Tre Penne 0 1495 45.80% 33.90%
7 1985-10-08 51.18 La Fiorita 4 1500 34.88% @ Cosmos 0 1485 30.65% 34.47%
8 1986-03-29 46.12 Faetano 8 1637 56.77% @ Aurora 0 1422 11.31% 31.92%
9 1985-11-05 43.07 Dogana 3 1474 30.21% @ Aurora 0 1492 35.33% 34.46%
10 1986-03-01 42.38 La Fiorita 5 1611 48.95% @ Folgore Falciano 0 1481 17.52% 33.52%
11 1986-03-01 41.71 @ Libertas 3 1504 31.82% Tre Fiori 0 1511 33.70% 34.48%
12 1985-10-22 41.28 Libertas 4 1446 23.76% @ Dogana 1 1515 42.03% 34.21%
13 1985-11-19 41.22 Tre Penne 3 1469 32.41% @ Pennarossa 0 1472 33.11% 34.48%
14 1985-11-26 40.13 Murata 3 1457 33.74% @ Aurora 0 1450 31.79% 34.48%
15 1986-03-15 34.81 @ Aurora 2 1398 22.15% Cailungo 0 1481 43.77% 34.08%
16 1985-11-05 33.83 Murata 2 1431 23.58% @ Folgore Falciano 0 1501 42.23% 34.19%
17 1985-10-29 29.50 Pennarossa 2 1458 30.47% @ Juvenes 0 1474 35.07% 34.47%
18 1986-04-05 28.88 Tre Penne 3 1474 24.31% @ Domagnano 1 1538 41.44% 34.24%
19 1986-03-08 28.83 Murata 3 1469 46.39% @ Juvenes 0 1363 19.77% 33.84%
20 1985-12-03 28.79 @ Faetano 4 1562 53.19% Juvenes 0 1389 14.02% 32.80%
21 1986-03-29 28.62 @ Cailungo 3 1473 24.76% Libertas 1 1533 40.97% 34.27%
22 1986-03-29 27.93 Montevito 2 1569 33.21% @ Domagnano 0 1566 32.31% 34.48%
23 1986-03-22 26.73 @ Cailungo 2 1446 35.31% Pennarossa 0 1428 30.23% 34.46%
24 1986-03-22 26.47 Faetano 4 1611 43.70% @ Dogana 1 1528 22.21% 34.09%
25 1985-10-08 26.12 @ Aurora 3 1476 29.35% Juvenes 1 1500 36.20% 34.45%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-03-01 70.0 @ Aurora 5 1396 13.83% Montevito 5 1572 53.43% 32.74%
2 1986-03-15 70.0 @ Faetano 3 1613 54.43% Pennarossa 3 1426 13.05% 32.52%
3 1985-11-26 69.5 @ Faetano 2 1562 29.16% La Fiorita 2 1588 36.40% 34.44%
4 1985-11-12 69.1 @ Faetano 3 1539 39.45% Libertas 3 1490 26.21% 34.34%
5 1986-03-15 68.0 Libertas 3 1544 27.75% @ Domagnano 2 1581 37.85% 34.40%
6 1985-11-12 66.9 @ Cailungo 3 1453 24.38% Dogana 3 1517 41.37% 34.25%
7 1985-10-15 65.8 @ Dogana 2 1515 31.45% Domagnano 2 1524 34.08% 34.48%
8 1985-11-12 65.1 @ Domagnano 2 1560 26.56% La Fiorita 1 1606 39.08% 34.36%
9 1985-12-03 64.9 @ La Fiorita 1 1587 34.69% Montevito 1 1574 30.84% 34.47%
10 1985-11-26 64.4 @ Libertas 2 1490 29.86% Tre Penne 2 1511 35.68% 34.46%
11 1986-03-08 63.5 @ Libertas 2 1546 48.19% Pennarossa 2 1424 18.18% 33.63%
12 1985-12-10 63.1 @ Domagnano 2 1584 57.43% Juvenes 2 1360 10.84% 31.73%
13 1985-11-12 62.7 @ San Giovanni 1 1596 46.74% Tre Fiori 1 1487 19.46% 33.80%
14 1986-03-15 62.4 @ La Fiorita 0 1650 41.30% San Giovanni 0 1587 24.45% 34.25%
15 1986-03-08 62.2 @ Cailungo 1 1478 19.30% San Giovanni 1 1589 46.92% 33.78%
16 1986-03-08 62.0 @ Faetano 1 1617 53.62% Folgore Falciano 1 1439 13.68% 32.70%
17 1985-12-10 61.9 Tre Fiori 3 1498 32.90% @ Murata 2 1497 32.62% 34.48%
18 1985-11-12 61.3 @ Aurora 2 1449 30.12% Folgore Falciano 2 1468 35.42% 34.46%
19 1985-11-26 61.2 @ Cosmos 2 1432 26.28% Folgore Falciano 2 1480 39.38% 34.35%
20 1986-03-08 61.1 @ Dogana 0 1514 16.68% La Fiorita 0 1653 49.95% 33.38%
21 1985-11-19 60.9 @ Domagnano 0 1576 30.24% San Giovanni 0 1594 35.29% 34.46%
22 1985-11-05 60.7 @ Faetano 5 1519 34.77% Tre Penne 3 1505 30.76% 34.47%
23 1985-12-03 60.6 @ Cosmos 1 1432 15.41% Domagnano 1 1587 51.47% 33.13%
24 1985-11-19 60.2 @ Cailungo 1 1454 19.84% Montevito 1 1559 46.31% 33.85%
25 1985-10-01 59.5 @ Dogana 1 1500 32.76% Tre Penne 1 1500 32.76% 34.48%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-03-08 38.5 Murata 3 1469 46.39% @ Juvenes 0 1363 19.77% 33.84%
2 1985-12-03 39.5 @ Faetano 4 1562 53.19% Juvenes 0 1389 14.02% 32.80%
3 1986-03-15 41.9 Tre Penne 1 1443 46.68% @ Juvenes 0 1334 19.51% 33.81%
4 1986-04-19 41.9 @ Domagnano 2 1490 45.84% Pennarossa 0 1389 20.27% 33.90%
5 1985-12-10 43.3 @ La Fiorita 3 1587 51.40% Pennarossa 0 1433 15.46% 33.14%
6 1986-04-12 43.5 San Giovanni 3 1636 64.37% @ Juvenes 1 1311 6.62% 29.01%
7 1986-04-05 43.6 San Giovanni 2 1624 57.30% @ Pennarossa 0 1401 10.93% 31.77%
8 1986-03-29 44.2 Faetano 8 1637 56.77% @ Aurora 0 1422 11.31% 31.92%
9 1985-11-26 44.5 Murata 3 1457 33.74% @ Aurora 0 1450 31.79% 34.48%
10 1986-03-22 44.9 @ Cailungo 2 1446 35.31% Pennarossa 0 1428 30.23% 34.46%
11 1985-11-19 46.1 Tre Penne 3 1469 32.41% @ Pennarossa 0 1472 33.11% 34.48%
12 1986-03-01 46.1 La Fiorita 5 1611 48.95% @ Folgore Falciano 0 1481 17.52% 33.52%
13 1985-10-08 46.3 La Fiorita 4 1500 34.88% @ Cosmos 0 1485 30.65% 34.47%
14 1985-10-29 46.4 @ Montevito 2 1528 42.79% Murata 0 1453 23.06% 34.16%
15 1985-12-10 46.5 Faetano 5 1591 51.51% @ Cosmos 1 1436 15.37% 33.12%
16 1986-04-05 46.6 @ Dogana 4 1492 52.81% Juvenes 2 1323 14.32% 32.87%
17 1986-03-01 47.0 Pennarossa 1 1409 32.62% @ Cosmos 0 1410 32.89% 34.48%
18 1985-10-01 47.5 Montevito 4 1500 32.76% @ Libertas 0 1500 32.76% 34.48%
19 1985-10-01 47.5 San Giovanni 4 1500 32.76% @ Murata 0 1500 32.76% 34.48%
20 1986-03-29 47.6 La Fiorita 2 1659 64.83% @ Juvenes 1 1326 6.39% 28.78%
21 1985-11-05 47.7 Dogana 3 1474 30.21% @ Aurora 0 1492 35.33% 34.46%
22 1986-03-08 48.0 @ Cosmos 3 1395 20.30% Tre Penne 0 1495 45.80% 33.90%
23 1985-10-29 48.3 Pennarossa 2 1458 30.47% @ Juvenes 0 1474 35.07% 34.47%
24 1985-11-19 48.4 @ Faetano 2 1538 40.61% Murata 0 1481 25.10% 34.29%
25 1985-11-26 48.4 @ Cailungo 3 1456 39.18% Juvenes 1 1410 26.47% 34.36%