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1986-87 Campionato Sammarinese Season

72 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Faetano

23 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Montevito

4.69 points above expected

22 points · 17.31 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

San Giovanni

4.37 points below expected

11 points · 15.37 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Faetano 16 9 5 2 23 33 12 +21 19.95 +3.05
2 Montevito 16 8 6 2 22 34 18 +16 17.31 +4.69
3 Dogana 16 6 7 3 19 27 18 +9 16.78 +2.22
4 La Fiorita 16 6 7 3 19 20 12 +8 18.51 +0.49
5 Murata 16 5 7 4 17 23 23 0 14.58 +2.42
6 Libertas 16 3 8 5 14 19 24 -5 15.94 -1.94
7 San Giovanni 16 3 5 8 11 15 23 -8 15.37 -4.37
8 Cailungo 16 3 5 8 11 16 28 -12 12.79 -1.79
9 Tre Penne 16 2 4 10 8 21 50 -29 11.77 -3.77

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Montevito 22 17.31 +4.69
2 Faetano 23 19.95 +3.05
3 Murata 17 14.58 +2.42
4 Dogana 19 16.78 +2.22
5 La Fiorita 19 18.51 +0.49

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 San Giovanni 11 15.37 -4.37
2 Tre Penne 8 11.77 -3.77
3 Libertas 14 15.94 -1.94
4 Cailungo 11 12.79 -1.79
5 La Fiorita 19 18.51 +0.49

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Faetano 1651 23 +21 8 7.0 +1.0
Montevito 1583 22 +48 9 6.4 +2.6
Dogana 1545 19 +6 6 5.3 +0.7
La Fiorita 1575 19 -21 4 6.4 -2.4
Murata 1463 17 -22 4 4.7 -0.7
Libertas 1474 14 +0 5 5.0 -0.0
Cailungo 1421 11 -10 4 4.2 -0.2
San Giovanni 1463 11 -10 4 4.9 -0.9
Tre Penne 1334 8 -12 3 3.0 -0.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI DOG FAE LF LIB MON MUR SG TP
Cailungo —
1-0-1
2.03
0-1-1
1.51
0-1-1
1.64
0-2-0
2.19
0-0-2
2.18
0-0-2
2.53
1-1-0
1.98
1-0-1
2.77
Dogana
1-0-1
3.19
 —
0-1-1
2.00
1-1-0
2.19
1-1-0
2.76
0-1-1
2.39
1-1-0
2.89
0-2-0
3.15
2-0-0
2.84
Faetano
1-1-0
3.78
1-1-0
3.23
 —
1-1-0
2.56
0-1-1
3.10
1-0-1
3.07
1-1-0
3.29
2-0-0
3.42
2-0-0
3.56
La Fiorita
1-1-0
3.62
0-1-1
3.04
0-1-1
2.65
 —
2-0-0
3.00
0-2-0
2.98
0-2-0
3.41
1-0-1
3.10
2-0-0
3.59
Libertas
0-2-0
3.04
0-1-1
2.46
1-1-0
2.13
0-0-2
2.23
 —
0-2-0
2.23
1-0-1
2.89
1-0-1
2.71
0-2-0
2.85
Montevito
2-0-0
3.04
1-1-0
2.83
1-0-1
2.15
0-2-0
2.23
0-2-0
3.00
 —
1-1-0
3.00
1-0-1
2.55
2-0-0
3.85
Murata
2-0-0
2.69
0-1-1
2.32
0-1-1
1.95
0-2-0
1.83
1-0-1
2.33
0-1-1
2.22
 —
1-1-0
2.42
1-1-0
3.37
San Giovanni
0-1-1
3.24
0-2-0
2.07
0-0-2
1.83
1-0-1
2.15
1-0-1
2.50
1-0-1
2.67
0-1-1
2.80
 —
0-1-1
3.28
Tre Penne
1-0-1
2.47
0-0-2
2.37
0-0-2
1.76
0-0-2
1.68
0-2-0
2.37
0-0-2
1.45
0-1-1
1.87
1-1-0
1.96
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.67 +6.3
Allowed 0.68 -3.8
Differential 0.95 +3.3

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%4.17%7.64%—0.69%1.39%26.39%
14.17%16.67%7.64%4.17%0.69%—33.33%
27.64%7.64%6.94%2.08%1.39%0.69%26.39%
3—4.17%2.08%1.39%—0.69%8.33%
40.69%0.69%1.39%———2.78%
5+1.39%—0.69%0.69%——2.78%
Total26.39%33.33%26.39%8.33%2.78%2.78%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.56 1.56 2.12
CV 1.08 1.08 —
Max 12 12 +10
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 72

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%—18.75%———31.25%
16.25%12.50%6.25%12.50%6.25%—43.75%
26.25%—6.25%—6.25%—18.75%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%12.50%37.50%12.50%12.50%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.75 -0.75
SD 0.89 1.34 1.44
CV 0.89 0.77 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%6.25%6.25%———31.25%
1—18.75%—6.25%——25.00%
2—18.75%6.25%———25.00%
3———————
4——12.50%———12.50%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total25.00%43.75%25.00%6.25%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.69 1.12 +0.56
SD 1.92 0.89 2.06
CV 1.14 0.79 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%————12.50%
16.25%12.50%6.25%———25.00%
218.75%6.25%12.50%———37.50%
3—6.25%————6.25%
46.25%6.25%————12.50%
5+6.25%—————6.25%
Total43.75%37.50%18.75%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.06 0.75 +1.31
SD 1.57 0.77 1.89
CV 0.76 1.03 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%12.50%————25.00%
1—25.00%6.25%———31.25%
225.00%6.25%6.25%———37.50%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total37.50%50.00%12.50%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.25 0.75 +0.50
SD 0.93 0.68 1.15
CV 0.74 0.91 —
Max 3 2 +2
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%6.25%12.50%———37.50%
16.25%12.50%————18.75%
2—6.25%12.50%6.25%6.25%—31.25%
3——6.25%6.25%——12.50%
4———————
5+———————
Total25.00%25.00%31.25%12.50%6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.19 1.50 -0.31
SD 1.11 1.21 1.01
CV 0.93 0.81 —
Max 3 4 +1
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%6.25%——6.25%—18.75%
1—25.00%————25.00%
212.50%18.75%6.25%———37.50%
3—12.50%————12.50%
4———————
5+——6.25%———6.25%
Total18.75%62.50%12.50%—6.25%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.12 1.12 +1.00
SD 2.80 0.96 2.83
CV 1.32 0.85 —
Max 12 4 +10
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
012.50%————6.25%18.75%
16.25%31.25%12.50%6.25%——56.25%
26.25%6.25%————12.50%
3—6.25%————6.25%
4———————
5+———6.25%——6.25%
Total25.00%43.75%12.50%12.50%—6.25%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.44 +0.00
SD 1.67 1.55 2.13
CV 1.16 1.08 —
Max 7 6 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
018.75%—18.75%———37.50%
112.50%6.25%18.75%———37.50%
2——6.25%12.50%——18.75%
3——6.25%———6.25%
4———————
5+———————
Total31.25%6.25%50.00%12.50%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.94 1.44 -0.50
SD 0.93 1.09 1.03
CV 0.99 0.76 —
Max 3 3 +1
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 16

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.25%—12.50%——6.25%25.00%
1—6.25%18.75%12.50%——37.50%
2—6.25%6.25%——6.25%18.75%
3—6.25%—6.25%—6.25%18.75%
4———————
5+———————
Total6.25%18.75%37.50%18.75%—18.75%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.31 3.12 -1.81
SD 1.08 3.05 3.02
CV 0.82 0.98 —
Max 3 12 +2
Min 0 0 -10

Games Played: 16

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Faetano 1640 23 19.95 +3.05 87.0% 12 14 18 20 22 25 28
La Fiorita 1600 19 18.51 +0.49 58.0% 11 13 16 19 21 24 26
Montevito 1582 22 17.31 +4.69 96.0% 11 13 15 17 19 21 23
Dogana 1531 19 16.78 +2.22 86.0% 10 12 15 17 19 20 25
Libertas 1474 14 15.94 -1.94 36.0% 11 11 14 16 18 20 25
San Giovanni 1463 11 15.37 -4.37 10.0% 9 11 13 15 18 20 23
Murata 1463 17 14.58 +2.42 85.0% 6 9 13 15 17 19 24
Cailungo 1413 11 12.79 -1.79 29.0% 6 8 11 13 15 17 19
Tre Penne 1334 8 11.77 -3.77 5.0% 5 7 10 11 14 16 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+12.50%
Strong Edge
37.50%37.50%25.00%
Elo Value
Home Edge
109 Elo
0.009 goals per Elo point
043.66300
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.36 goals
Neutral
-2+0.40+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.3
One-Team Race
14569
Champion Preseason Odds
47%
Faetano, 1st of 9
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.06/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.33 * Some Luck: 2.33 to 3.49 * Lucky: 3.49 to 4.65 * Wild Swing: 4.65 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.29 * Close: 1.29 to 1.93 * Off: 1.93 to 2.58 * Way Off: 2.58 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 9 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 9 * As Expected: 9 to 14.4 * Several Outliers: 14.4 to 19.8 * Many Outliers: 19.8 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.18 points
Some Luck
02.917
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.89
Pinpoint
01.614
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 94.44%
96.00%
Montevito
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
5.00%
Tre Penne
05.56%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 9
Minimal Outliers
00.99

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Balanced
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 97.40
1.67
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
66%
Even
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
86%
Even
50%86%100%
Close Games
Expected
65%
Frequent
0%52%100%
Blowouts
Expected
8%
Rare
0%24%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.63
Hard to Predict
00.632
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Very Even
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.23
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.55
Strong Carryover
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
25%
Very Upset-Prone
0%20%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
19%
Shaky Favorites
0%16%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.21 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.21 to 0.31 * Above Noise: 0.31 to 0.42 * Well Above Noise: 0.42 and up.
Probability calibration
0.88
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.03
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.130
Well Within Noise
00.2080.5

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

Semifinals

Faetano 2
Dogana 0

Sim: 10.0%

La Fiorita 0
Montevito 0

Finals

La Fiorita 2
Faetano 0

Sim: 7.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team123456789
Faetano47.00%25.00%10.00%5.00%6.00%2.00%3.00%2.00%—
Montevito9.00%17.00%26.00%19.00%9.00%11.00%4.00%5.00%—
Dogana9.00%5.00%24.00%18.00%22.00%7.00%8.00%5.00%2.00%
La Fiorita25.00%30.00%7.00%13.00%5.00%11.00%6.00%2.00%1.00%
Murata2.00%6.00%5.00%9.00%16.00%20.00%16.00%15.00%11.00%
Libertas5.00%8.00%12.00%15.00%17.00%8.00%22.00%9.00%4.00%
San Giovanni3.00%8.00%10.00%12.00%10.00%21.00%17.00%10.00%9.00%
Cailungo——4.00%6.00%7.00%14.00%11.00%38.00%20.00%
Tre Penne—1.00%2.00%3.00%8.00%6.00%13.00%14.00%53.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Faetano 11.00% 2.00%
La Fiorita 22.00% 3.00%
Montevito 24.00% 5.00%
Dogana 37.00% 7.00%
Libertas 47.00% 13.00%
San Giovanni 48.00% 19.00%
Murata 52.00% 26.00%
Cailungo 32.00% 58.00%
Tre Penne 27.00% 67.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoDoganaFaetanoLa FioritaLibertasMontevitoMurataSan GiovanniTre Penne
Cailungo0.0%1.00%20.0%5.00%25.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Dogana100.0%1.00%9.1%11.00%55.6%9.00%80.0%5.00%50.0%10.00%80.0%5.00%62.5%8.00%
Faetano80.0%5.00%90.9%11.00%72.0%25.00%88.9%9.00%23.1%13.00%66.7%9.00%90.9%11.00%0.0%1.00%
La Fiorita75.0%4.00%44.4%9.00%28.0%25.00%71.4%14.00%33.3%15.00%100.0%5.00%69.2%13.00%100.0%2.00%
Libertas0.0%1.00%20.0%5.00%11.1%9.00%28.6%14.00%20.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Montevito100.0%2.00%50.0%10.00%76.9%13.00%66.7%15.00%80.0%5.00%33.3%3.00%66.7%6.00%
Murata0.0%1.00%20.0%5.00%33.3%9.00%0.0%5.00%0.0%2.00%66.7%3.00%0.0%3.00%
San Giovanni37.5%8.00%9.1%11.00%30.8%13.00%100.0%1.00%33.3%6.00%100.0%3.00%
Tre Penne100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoDoganaFaetanoLa FioritaLibertasMontevitoMurataSan GiovanniTre Penne
Cailungo50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Dogana12.5%8.00%83.3%6.00%50.0%2.00%33.3%6.00%66.7%3.00%
Faetano50.0%2.00%87.5%8.00%68.2%22.00%80.0%5.00%43.8%16.00%100.0%1.00%60.0%5.00%
La Fiorita100.0%1.00%16.7%6.00%31.8%22.00%0.0%2.00%40.0%10.00%0.0%3.00%100.0%1.00%
Libertas50.0%2.00%20.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Montevito66.7%6.00%56.2%16.00%60.0%10.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%
Murata0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%
San Giovanni33.3%3.00%40.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Tre Penne100.0%1.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1986-10-01 Montevito L 0-251.2 1471 1512 33.66% 39.62% 26.73%+0.03 -21.5 0
1986-10-01 @ Cailungo W 2-051.2 1512 1471 26.73% 39.62% 33.66%-0.03 +21.5 2
1986-10-01 Murata D 1-153.6 1472 1437 43.07% 38.87% 18.06%+0.72 -1.5 1
1986-10-01 @ Dogana D 1-153.6 1437 1472 18.06% 38.87% 43.07%-0.72 +1.5 1
1986-10-01 Faetano D 1-160.0 1543 1548 38.36% 39.43% 22.21%+0.36 -0.9 1
1986-10-01 @ La Fiorita D 1-160.0 1548 1543 22.21% 39.43% 38.36%-0.36 +1.0 1
1986-10-01 Libertas D 2-260.3 1472 1511 33.79% 39.61% 26.60%+0.04 -0.3 1
1986-10-01 @ Tre Penne D 2-260.3 1511 1472 26.60% 39.61% 33.79%-0.04 +0.3 1
1986-10-08 Murata L 1-354.1 1449 1439 40.24% 39.25% 20.50%+0.50 -21.1 0
1986-10-08 @ Cailungo W 3-154.1 1439 1449 20.50% 39.25% 40.24%-0.50 +21.1 3
1986-10-08 Tre Penne W 2-152.7 1471 1471 38.85% 39.39% 21.76%+0.39 +8.2 3
1986-10-08 @ Dogana L 1-252.7 1471 1471 21.76% 39.39% 38.85%-0.39 -8.2 1
1986-10-08 La Fiorita L 0-254.3 1512 1542 35.01% 39.60% 25.40%+0.12 -22.0 1
1986-10-08 @ Libertas W 2-054.3 1542 1512 25.40% 39.60% 35.01%-0.12 +22.0 3
1986-10-08 Montevito W 1-053.1 1534 1533 39.11% 39.37% 21.52%+0.41 +8.6 2
1986-10-08 @ San Giovanni L 0-153.1 1533 1534 21.52% 39.37% 39.11%-0.41 -8.6 2
1986-10-15 Dogana D 1-157.0 1524 1479 44.31% 38.64% 17.04%+0.82 -1.7 3
1986-10-15 @ Montevito D 1-157.0 1479 1524 17.04% 38.64% 44.31%-0.82 +1.7 4
1986-10-15 Faetano W 1-054.4 1489 1549 31.11% 39.59% 29.31%-0.14 +10.4 3
1986-10-15 @ Libertas L 0-154.4 1549 1489 29.31% 39.59% 31.11%+0.14 -10.4 1
1986-10-15 La Fiorita D 1-157.7 1460 1564 25.11% 39.17% 35.73%-0.55 +0.6 4
1986-10-15 @ Murata D 1-157.7 1564 1460 35.73% 39.17% 25.11%+0.55 -0.6 4
1986-10-15 San Giovanni W 2-158.2 1463 1543 28.21% 39.45% 32.33%-0.33 +10.4 3
1986-10-15 @ Tre Penne L 1-258.2 1543 1463 32.33% 39.45% 28.21%+0.33 -10.4 2
1986-10-22 Cailungo W 4-251.0 1480 1428 44.99% 38.51% 16.50%+0.88 +10.5 6
1986-10-22 @ Dogana L 2-451.0 1428 1480 16.50% 38.51% 44.99%-0.88 -10.5 0
1986-10-22 Montevito D 1-160.0 1564 1523 43.75% 38.75% 17.50%+0.77 -1.6 5
1986-10-22 @ La Fiorita D 1-160.0 1523 1564 17.50% 38.75% 43.75%-0.77 +1.6 4
1986-10-22 Tre Penne D 3-363.6 1500 1473 42.12% 39.02% 18.87%+0.64 -0.9 4
1986-10-22 @ Libertas D 3-363.6 1473 1500 18.87% 39.02% 42.12%-0.64 +0.9 4
1986-10-22 Faetano D 1-156.6 1461 1538 28.53% 39.47% 31.99%-0.31 +0.2 5
1986-10-22 @ Murata D 1-156.6 1538 1461 31.99% 39.47% 28.53%+0.31 -0.2 2
1986-10-29 Murata W 3-149.8 1524 1461 46.25% 38.23% 15.53%+0.98 +11.2 6
1986-10-29 @ Montevito L 1-349.8 1461 1524 15.53% 38.23% 46.25%-0.98 -11.2 5
1986-10-29 Dogana D 0-052.7 1499 1491 39.95% 39.29% 20.77%+0.47 -1.3 5
1986-10-29 @ Libertas D 0-052.7 1491 1499 20.77% 39.29% 39.95%-0.47 +1.3 7
1986-10-29 La Fiorita L 1-262.3 1533 1562 35.19% 39.59% 25.22%+0.13 -11.1 2
1986-10-29 @ San Giovanni W 2-162.3 1562 1533 25.22% 39.59% 35.19%-0.13 +11.1 7
1986-10-29 Faetano L 1-258.0 1474 1538 30.47% 39.57% 29.96%-0.18 -10.1 4
1986-10-29 @ Tre Penne W 2-158.0 1538 1474 29.96% 39.57% 30.47%+0.18 +10.1 4
1986-11-05 San Giovanni D 1-154.5 1418 1522 25.17% 39.18% 35.65%-0.55 +0.6 1
1986-11-05 @ Cailungo D 1-154.5 1522 1418 35.65% 39.18% 25.17%+0.55 -0.6 3
1986-11-05 Montevito W 4-048.3 1548 1536 40.47% 39.23% 20.30%+0.51 +29.6 6
1986-11-05 @ Faetano L 0-448.3 1536 1548 20.30% 39.23% 40.47%-0.51 -29.6 6
1986-11-05 Dogana D 1-159.6 1573 1492 48.03% 37.76% 14.21%+1.14 -2.2 8
1986-11-05 @ La Fiorita D 1-159.6 1492 1573 14.21% 37.76% 48.03%-1.14 +2.2 8
1986-11-05 Libertas W 1-050.6 1450 1498 32.63% 39.61% 27.76%-0.04 +10.1 7
1986-11-05 @ Murata L 0-150.6 1498 1450 27.76% 39.61% 32.63%+0.04 -10.1 5
1986-11-05 Cailungo L 0-250.7 1464 1419 44.31% 38.65% 17.05%+0.82 -26.2 4
1986-11-05 @ Tre Penne W 2-050.7 1419 1464 17.05% 38.65% 44.31%-0.82 +26.2 3
1986-11-12 Faetano D 0-055.7 1494 1578 27.76% 39.42% 32.82%-0.36 +0.3 9
1986-11-12 @ Dogana D 0-055.7 1578 1494 32.82% 39.42% 27.76%+0.36 -0.3 7
1986-11-12 San Giovanni W 2-156.4 1506 1521 37.04% 39.52% 23.44%+0.26 +8.6 8
1986-11-12 @ Montevito L 1-256.4 1521 1506 23.44% 39.52% 37.04%-0.26 -8.6 3
1986-11-12 Murata W 2-151.8 1488 1460 42.30% 38.99% 18.71%+0.66 +7.4 7
1986-11-12 @ Libertas L 1-251.8 1460 1488 18.71% 38.99% 42.30%-0.66 -7.4 7
1986-11-12 La Fiorita L 1-352.7 1438 1571 21.82% 38.65% 39.53%-0.82 -14.0 4
1986-11-12 @ Tre Penne W 3-152.7 1571 1438 39.53% 38.65% 21.82%+0.82 +14.0 10
1986-11-19 Montevito L 1-357.3 1495 1515 36.41% 39.55% 24.04%+0.22 -19.6 9
1986-11-19 @ Dogana W 3-157.3 1515 1495 24.04% 39.55% 36.41%-0.22 +19.6 10
1986-11-19 Libertas D 2-264.1 1577 1495 48.18% 37.72% 14.10%+1.15 -1.6 8
1986-11-19 @ Faetano D 2-264.1 1495 1577 14.10% 37.72% 48.18%-1.15 +1.6 8
1986-11-19 Tre Penne W 2-043.6 1585 1424 55.48% 34.87% 9.65%+1.87 +8.6 12
1986-11-19 @ La Fiorita L 0-243.6 1424 1585 9.65% 34.87% 55.48%-1.87 -8.6 4
1986-11-19 Murata L 0-253.9 1512 1452 45.88% 38.31% 15.81%+0.95 -27.0 3
1986-11-19 @ San Giovanni W 2-053.9 1452 1512 15.81% 38.31% 45.88%-0.95 +27.0 9
1986-11-26 La Fiorita W 1-056.9 1576 1593 36.71% 39.53% 23.76%+0.24 +9.2 10
1986-11-26 @ Faetano L 0-156.9 1593 1576 23.76% 39.53% 36.71%-0.24 -9.2 12
1986-11-26 Montevito D 1-157.8 1497 1534 34.09% 39.61% 26.30%+0.06 -0.4 9
1986-11-26 @ Libertas D 1-157.8 1534 1497 26.30% 39.61% 34.09%-0.06 +0.4 11
1986-11-26 Cailungo W 2-150.8 1479 1445 43.04% 38.87% 18.09%+0.72 +7.2 11
1986-11-26 @ Murata L 1-250.8 1445 1479 18.09% 38.87% 43.04%-0.72 -7.2 3
1986-11-26 San Giovanni D 0-052.0 1486 1485 39.06% 39.37% 21.56%+0.41 -1.2 12
1986-11-26 @ Murata D 0-052.0 1485 1486 21.56% 39.37% 39.06%-0.41 +1.2 4
1986-11-26 Dogana L 0-745.4 1415 1475 31.06% 39.59% 29.36%-0.15 -65.5 4
1986-11-26 @ Tre Penne W 7-045.4 1475 1415 29.36% 39.59% 31.06%+0.15 +65.5 11
1986-12-03 Dogana W 1-053.9 1438 1541 25.26% 39.19% 35.55%-0.54 +11.8 5
1986-12-03 @ Cailungo L 0-153.9 1541 1438 35.55% 39.19% 25.26%+0.54 -11.8 11
1986-12-03 Libertas W 2-048.2 1584 1496 48.74% 37.55% 13.71%+1.21 +11.7 14
1986-12-03 @ La Fiorita L 0-248.2 1496 1584 13.71% 37.55% 48.74%-1.21 -11.7 9
1986-12-03 Montevito D 1-157.4 1485 1535 32.48% 39.61% 27.91%-0.05 -0.2 13
1986-12-03 @ Murata D 1-157.4 1535 1485 27.91% 39.61% 32.48%+0.05 +0.2 12
1986-12-03 Faetano L 0-252.1 1487 1585 25.84% 39.25% 34.91%-0.50 -18.1 4
1986-12-03 @ San Giovanni W 2-052.1 1585 1487 34.91% 39.25% 25.84%+0.50 +18.1 12
1986-12-10 Faetano D 2-263.3 1449 1603 19.66% 38.16% 42.18%-1.01 +1.0 6
1986-12-10 @ Cailungo D 2-263.3 1603 1449 42.18% 38.16% 19.66%+1.01 -1.0 13
1986-12-10 La Fiorita D 2-265.5 1535 1596 30.84% 39.58% 29.58%-0.16 -0.0 13
1986-12-10 @ Montevito D 2-265.5 1596 1535 29.58% 39.58% 30.84%+0.16 +0.0 15
1986-12-10 Dogana L 1-258.9 1485 1529 33.24% 39.62% 27.14%+0.00 -10.6 13
1986-12-10 @ Murata W 2-158.9 1529 1485 27.14% 39.62% 33.24%+0.00 +10.6 13
1986-12-10 Tre Penne D 0-048.0 1468 1350 51.69% 36.54% 11.78%+1.49 -3.0 5
1986-12-10 @ San Giovanni D 0-048.0 1350 1468 11.78% 36.54% 51.69%-1.49 +3.0 5
1987-03-01 Libertas W 4-255.0 1539 1485 45.31% 38.44% 16.25%+0.90 +10.3 15
1987-03-01 @ Dogana L 2-455.0 1485 1539 16.25% 38.44% 45.31%-0.90 -10.3 9
1987-03-01 Murata W 6-044.7 1602 1474 52.53% 36.20% 11.27%+1.57 +27.5 15
1987-03-01 @ Faetano L 0-644.7 1474 1602 11.27% 36.20% 52.53%-1.57 -27.5 13
1987-03-01 San Giovanni L 0-161.3 1596 1466 52.79% 36.09% 11.11%+1.59 -16.0 15
1987-03-01 @ La Fiorita W 1-061.3 1466 1596 11.11% 36.09% 52.79%-1.59 +16.0 7
1987-03-01 Montevito L 1-248.8 1353 1535 17.12% 37.35% 45.53%-1.27 -6.8 5
1987-03-01 @ Tre Penne W 2-148.8 1535 1353 45.53% 37.35% 17.12%+1.27 +6.8 15
1987-03-08 San Giovanni W 2-047.5 1630 1482 54.37% 35.40% 10.23%+1.76 +9.1 17
1987-03-08 @ Faetano L 0-247.5 1482 1630 10.23% 35.40% 54.37%-1.76 -9.1 7
1987-03-08 Cailungo W 2-044.9 1542 1450 49.07% 37.45% 13.48%+1.24 +11.6 17
1987-03-08 @ Montevito L 0-244.9 1450 1542 13.48% 37.45% 49.07%-1.24 -11.6 6
1987-03-08 Murata D 0-055.0 1580 1447 53.03% 35.99% 10.98%+1.62 -3.2 16
1987-03-08 @ La Fiorita D 0-055.0 1447 1580 10.98% 35.99% 53.03%-1.62 +3.2 14
1987-03-15 Tre Penne W 3-143.8 1639 1346 66.01% 28.38% 5.61%+3.08 +3.9 19
1987-03-15 @ Faetano L 1-343.8 1346 1639 5.61% 28.38% 66.01%-3.08 -3.9 5
1987-03-15 Libertas D 0-054.5 1553 1474 47.84% 37.82% 14.35%+1.12 -2.4 18
1987-03-15 @ Montevito D 0-054.5 1474 1553 14.35% 37.82% 47.84%-1.12 +2.4 10
1987-03-15 Cailungo W 2-044.5 1577 1439 53.47% 35.80% 10.73%+1.66 +9.5 18
1987-03-15 @ La Fiorita L 0-244.5 1439 1577 10.73% 35.80% 53.47%-1.66 -9.5 6
1987-03-15 Dogana D 2-261.8 1472 1550 28.59% 39.48% 31.93%-0.31 +0.1 8
1987-03-15 @ San Giovanni D 2-261.8 1550 1472 31.93% 39.48% 28.59%+0.31 -0.1 16
1987-03-22 La Fiorita D 0-054.0 1429 1586 19.36% 38.07% 42.57%-1.04 +1.6 7
1987-03-22 @ Cailungo D 0-054.0 1586 1429 42.57% 38.07% 19.36%+1.04 -1.6 19
1987-03-22 Dogana W 2-051.3 1643 1550 49.24% 37.40% 13.36%+1.25 +11.5 21
1987-03-22 @ Faetano L 0-251.3 1550 1643 13.36% 37.40% 49.24%-1.25 -11.5 16
1987-03-22 Tre Penne W 7-342.4 1450 1342 50.68% 36.91% 12.41%+1.39 +13.2 16
1987-03-22 @ Murata L 3-742.4 1342 1450 12.41% 36.91% 50.68%-1.39 -13.2 5
1987-03-22 Libertas L 2-362.0 1473 1477 38.44% 39.42% 22.13%+0.36 -11.2 8
1987-03-22 @ San Giovanni W 3-262.0 1477 1473 22.13% 39.42% 38.44%-0.36 +11.2 12
1987-03-29 Tre Penne L 1-353.2 1431 1329 50.11% 37.11% 12.78%+1.33 -25.1 7
1987-03-29 @ Cailungo W 3-153.2 1329 1431 12.78% 37.11% 50.11%-1.33 +25.1 7
1987-03-29 La Fiorita W 2-160.9 1538 1585 32.86% 39.62% 27.53%-0.03 +9.5 18
1987-03-29 @ Dogana L 1-260.9 1585 1538 27.53% 39.62% 32.86%+0.03 -9.5 19
1987-03-29 Faetano W 2-165.4 1551 1654 25.21% 39.18% 35.61%-0.55 +11.1 20
1987-03-29 @ Montevito L 1-265.4 1654 1551 35.61% 39.18% 25.21%+0.55 -11.1 21
1987-03-29 San Giovanni L 2-363.0 1488 1461 42.10% 39.02% 18.88%+0.64 -12.0 12
1987-03-29 @ Libertas W 3-263.0 1461 1488 18.88% 39.02% 42.10%-0.64 +12.0 10
1987-04-05 San Giovanni D 0-054.2 1548 1473 47.35% 37.95% 14.71%+1.08 -2.3 19
1987-04-05 @ Dogana D 0-054.2 1473 1548 14.71% 37.95% 47.35%-1.08 +2.3 11
1987-04-05 Cailungo D 1-152.9 1476 1406 46.92% 38.06% 15.02%+1.04 -2.0 13
1987-04-05 @ Libertas D 1-152.9 1406 1476 15.02% 38.06% 46.92%-1.04 +2.0 8
1987-04-05 Cailungo L 2-361.9 1476 1408 46.70% 38.12% 15.19%+1.02 -13.0 11
1987-04-05 @ San Giovanni W 3-261.9 1408 1476 15.19% 38.12% 46.70%-1.02 +13.0 10
1987-04-05 Murata D 1-150.8 1354 1463 24.51% 39.09% 36.40%-0.60 +0.7 8
1987-04-05 @ Tre Penne D 1-150.8 1463 1354 36.40% 39.09% 24.51%+0.60 -0.7 17
1987-04-12 Libertas D 0-049.2 1421 1474 31.97% 39.61% 28.42%-0.09 -0.2 11
1987-04-12 @ Cailungo D 0-049.2 1474 1421 28.42% 39.61% 31.97%+0.09 +0.2 14
1987-04-12 Cailungo W 4-146.4 1643 1421 60.59% 32.01% 7.40%+2.44 +7.8 23
1987-04-12 @ Faetano L 1-446.4 1421 1643 7.40% 32.01% 60.59%-2.44 -7.9 11
1987-04-12 Tre Penne W 12-239.2 1562 1355 59.35% 32.76% 7.89%+2.30 +20.7 22
1987-04-12 @ Montevito L 2-1239.2 1355 1562 7.89% 32.76% 59.35%-2.30 -20.7 8

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1987-04-19 Dogana W 2-053.0 1651 1545 43.94% 38.27% 17.78%+0.97 +14.1 1-0
1987-04-19 @ Faetano L 0-253.0 1545 1651 17.78% 38.27% 43.94%-0.97 -14.1 0-1
1987-04-19 Montevito D 0-058.3 1575 1583 29.15% 39.61% 31.24%-0.07 +0.1 0-0-1
1987-04-19 @ La Fiorita D 0-058.3 1583 1575 31.24% 39.61% 29.15%+0.07 -0.1 0-0-1
1987-04-26 Faetano W 2-061.3 1575 1665 19.29% 38.64% 42.07%-0.82 +25.1 1-0-1
1987-04-26 @ La Fiorita L 0-261.3 1665 1575 42.07% 38.64% 19.29%+0.82 -25.1 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1987-03-01 11.11% San Giovanni 1466 1 @ La Fiorita 1596 0
2 1987-03-29 12.78% Tre Penne 1329 3 @ Cailungo 1431 1
3 1987-04-05 15.19% Cailungo 1408 3 @ San Giovanni 1476 2
4 1986-11-19 15.81% Murata 1452 2 @ San Giovanni 1512 0
5 1986-11-05 17.05% Cailungo 1419 2 @ Tre Penne 1464 0
6 1987-03-29 18.88% San Giovanni 1461 3 @ Libertas 1488 2
7 1987-04-26 * 19.29% @ La Fiorita 1575 2 Faetano 1665 0
8 1986-10-08 20.50% Murata 1439 3 @ Cailungo 1449 1
9 1987-03-22 22.13% Libertas 1477 3 @ San Giovanni 1473 2
10 1986-11-19 24.04% Montevito 1515 3 @ Dogana 1495 1
11 1987-03-29 25.21% @ Montevito 1551 2 Faetano 1654 1
12 1986-10-29 25.22% La Fiorita 1562 2 @ San Giovanni 1533 1
13 1986-12-03 25.26% @ Cailungo 1438 1 Dogana 1541 0
14 1986-10-08 25.40% La Fiorita 1542 2 @ Libertas 1512 0
15 1986-10-01 26.73% Montevito 1512 2 @ Cailungo 1471 0
16 1986-12-10 27.14% Dogana 1529 2 @ Murata 1485 1
17 1986-10-15 28.21% @ Tre Penne 1463 2 San Giovanni 1543 1
18 1986-11-26 29.36% Dogana 1475 7 @ Tre Penne 1415 0
19 1986-10-29 29.96% Faetano 1538 2 @ Tre Penne 1474 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-11-26 65.51 Dogana 7 1475 29.36% @ Tre Penne 0 1415 31.06% 39.59%
2 1986-11-05 29.62 @ Faetano 4 1548 40.47% Montevito 0 1536 20.30% 39.23%
3 1987-03-01 27.54 @ Faetano 6 1602 52.53% Murata 0 1474 11.27% 36.20%
4 1986-11-19 26.98 Murata 2 1452 15.81% @ San Giovanni 0 1512 45.88% 38.31%
5 1986-11-05 26.24 Cailungo 2 1419 17.05% @ Tre Penne 0 1464 44.31% 38.65%
6 1987-03-29 25.12 Tre Penne 3 1329 12.78% @ Cailungo 1 1431 50.11% 37.11%
7 1987-04-26 * 25.09 @ La Fiorita 2 1575 19.29% Faetano 0 1665 42.07% 38.64%
8 1986-10-08 22.04 La Fiorita 2 1542 25.40% @ Libertas 0 1512 35.01% 39.60%
9 1986-10-01 21.47 Montevito 2 1512 26.73% @ Cailungo 0 1471 33.66% 39.62%
10 1986-10-08 21.10 Murata 3 1439 20.50% @ Cailungo 1 1449 40.24% 39.25%
11 1987-04-12 20.73 @ Montevito 12 1562 59.35% Tre Penne 2 1355 7.89% 32.76%
12 1986-11-19 19.62 Montevito 3 1515 24.04% @ Dogana 1 1495 36.41% 39.55%
13 1986-12-03 18.15 Faetano 2 1585 34.91% @ San Giovanni 0 1487 25.84% 39.25%
14 1987-03-01 16.05 San Giovanni 1 1466 11.11% @ La Fiorita 0 1596 52.79% 36.09%
15 1987-04-19 * 14.13 @ Faetano 2 1651 43.94% Dogana 0 1545 17.78% 38.27%
16 1986-11-12 14.03 La Fiorita 3 1571 39.53% @ Tre Penne 1 1438 21.82% 38.65%
17 1987-03-22 13.23 @ Murata 7 1450 50.68% Tre Penne 3 1342 12.41% 36.91%
18 1987-04-05 12.99 Cailungo 3 1408 15.19% @ San Giovanni 2 1476 46.70% 38.12%
19 1987-03-29 11.96 San Giovanni 3 1461 18.88% @ Libertas 2 1488 42.10% 39.02%
20 1986-12-03 11.77 @ Cailungo 1 1438 25.26% Dogana 0 1541 35.55% 39.19%
21 1986-12-03 11.72 @ La Fiorita 2 1584 48.74% Libertas 0 1496 13.71% 37.55%
22 1987-03-08 11.57 @ Montevito 2 1542 49.07% Cailungo 0 1450 13.48% 37.45%
23 1987-03-22 11.48 @ Faetano 2 1643 49.24% Dogana 0 1550 13.36% 37.40%
24 1986-10-29 11.18 @ Montevito 3 1524 46.25% Murata 1 1461 15.53% 38.23%
25 1987-03-22 11.17 Libertas 3 1477 22.13% @ San Giovanni 2 1473 38.44% 39.42%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1986-12-10 65.5 @ Montevito 2 1535 30.84% La Fiorita 2 1596 29.58% 39.58%
2 1987-03-29 65.4 @ Montevito 2 1551 25.21% Faetano 1 1654 35.61% 39.18%
3 1986-11-19 64.1 @ Faetano 2 1577 48.18% Libertas 2 1495 14.10% 37.72%
4 1986-10-22 63.6 @ Libertas 3 1500 42.12% Tre Penne 3 1473 18.87% 39.02%
5 1986-12-10 63.3 @ Cailungo 2 1449 19.66% Faetano 2 1603 42.18% 38.16%
6 1987-03-29 63.0 San Giovanni 3 1461 18.88% @ Libertas 2 1488 42.10% 39.02%
7 1986-10-29 62.3 La Fiorita 2 1562 25.22% @ San Giovanni 1 1533 35.19% 39.59%
8 1987-03-22 62.0 Libertas 3 1477 22.13% @ San Giovanni 2 1473 38.44% 39.42%
9 1987-04-05 61.9 Cailungo 3 1408 15.19% @ San Giovanni 2 1476 46.70% 38.12%
10 1987-03-15 61.8 @ San Giovanni 2 1472 28.59% Dogana 2 1550 31.93% 39.48%
11 1987-03-01 61.3 San Giovanni 1 1466 11.11% @ La Fiorita 0 1596 52.79% 36.09%
12 1987-04-26 * 61.3 @ La Fiorita 2 1575 19.29% Faetano 0 1665 42.07% 38.64%
13 1987-03-29 60.9 @ Dogana 2 1538 32.86% La Fiorita 1 1585 27.53% 39.62%
14 1986-10-01 60.3 @ Tre Penne 2 1472 33.79% Libertas 2 1511 26.60% 39.61%
15 1986-10-01 60.0 @ La Fiorita 1 1543 38.36% Faetano 1 1548 22.21% 39.43%
16 1986-10-22 60.0 @ La Fiorita 1 1564 43.75% Montevito 1 1523 17.50% 38.75%
17 1986-11-05 59.6 @ La Fiorita 1 1573 48.03% Dogana 1 1492 14.21% 37.76%
18 1986-12-10 58.9 Dogana 2 1529 27.14% @ Murata 1 1485 33.24% 39.62%
19 1987-04-19 * 58.3 @ La Fiorita 0 1575 29.15% Montevito 0 1583 31.24% 39.61%
20 1986-10-15 58.2 @ Tre Penne 2 1463 28.21% San Giovanni 1 1543 32.33% 39.45%
21 1986-10-29 58.0 Faetano 2 1538 29.96% @ Tre Penne 1 1474 30.47% 39.57%
22 1986-11-26 57.8 @ Libertas 1 1497 34.09% Montevito 1 1534 26.30% 39.61%
23 1986-10-15 57.7 @ Murata 1 1460 25.11% La Fiorita 1 1564 35.73% 39.17%
24 1986-12-03 57.4 @ Murata 1 1485 32.48% Montevito 1 1535 27.91% 39.61%
25 1986-11-19 57.3 Montevito 3 1515 24.04% @ Dogana 1 1495 36.41% 39.55%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1987-04-12 39.2 @ Montevito 12 1562 59.35% Tre Penne 2 1355 7.89% 32.76%
2 1987-03-22 42.4 @ Murata 7 1450 50.68% Tre Penne 3 1342 12.41% 36.91%
3 1986-11-19 43.6 @ La Fiorita 2 1585 55.48% Tre Penne 0 1424 9.65% 34.87%
4 1987-03-15 43.8 @ Faetano 3 1639 66.01% Tre Penne 1 1346 5.61% 28.38%
5 1987-03-15 44.5 @ La Fiorita 2 1577 53.47% Cailungo 0 1439 10.73% 35.80%
6 1987-03-01 44.7 @ Faetano 6 1602 52.53% Murata 0 1474 11.27% 36.20%
7 1987-03-08 44.9 @ Montevito 2 1542 49.07% Cailungo 0 1450 13.48% 37.45%
8 1986-11-26 45.4 Dogana 7 1475 29.36% @ Tre Penne 0 1415 31.06% 39.59%
9 1987-04-12 46.4 @ Faetano 4 1643 60.59% Cailungo 1 1421 7.40% 32.01%
10 1987-03-08 47.5 @ Faetano 2 1630 54.37% San Giovanni 0 1482 10.23% 35.40%
11 1986-12-10 48.0 @ San Giovanni 0 1468 51.69% Tre Penne 0 1350 11.78% 36.54%
12 1986-12-03 48.2 @ La Fiorita 2 1584 48.74% Libertas 0 1496 13.71% 37.55%
13 1986-11-05 48.3 @ Faetano 4 1548 40.47% Montevito 0 1536 20.30% 39.23%
14 1987-03-01 48.8 Montevito 2 1535 45.53% @ Tre Penne 1 1353 17.12% 37.35%
15 1987-04-12 49.2 @ Cailungo 0 1421 31.97% Libertas 0 1474 28.42% 39.61%
16 1986-10-29 49.8 @ Montevito 3 1524 46.25% Murata 1 1461 15.53% 38.23%
17 1986-11-05 50.6 @ Murata 1 1450 32.63% Libertas 0 1498 27.76% 39.61%
18 1986-11-05 50.7 Cailungo 2 1419 17.05% @ Tre Penne 0 1464 44.31% 38.65%
19 1986-11-26 50.8 @ Murata 2 1479 43.04% Cailungo 1 1445 18.09% 38.87%
20 1987-04-05 50.8 @ Tre Penne 1 1354 24.51% Murata 1 1463 36.40% 39.09%
21 1986-10-22 51.0 @ Dogana 4 1480 44.99% Cailungo 2 1428 16.50% 38.51%
22 1986-10-01 51.2 Montevito 2 1512 26.73% @ Cailungo 0 1471 33.66% 39.62%
23 1987-03-22 51.3 @ Faetano 2 1643 49.24% Dogana 0 1550 13.36% 37.40%
24 1986-11-12 51.8 @ Libertas 2 1488 42.30% Murata 1 1460 18.71% 38.99%
25 1986-11-26 52.0 @ Murata 0 1486 39.06% San Giovanni 0 1485 21.56% 39.37%