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1990-91 Campionato Sammarinese Season

90 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Tre Fiori

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Tre Fiori

5.02 points above expected

26 points · 20.98 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

La Fiorita

6.65 points below expected

7 points · 13.65 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tre Fiori 18 11 4 3 26 34 18 +16 20.98 +5.02
2 Montevito 18 9 5 4 23 32 22 +10 21.58 +1.42
3 Faetano 18 9 4 5 22 36 22 +14 23.21 -1.21
4 Folgore Falciano 18 8 6 4 22 23 17 +6 17.51 +4.49
5 Domagnano 18 8 5 5 21 35 19 +16 20.04 +0.96
6 Cosmos 18 7 6 5 20 30 26 +4 18.94 +1.06
7 Libertas 18 4 9 5 17 21 22 -1 16.83 +0.17
8 Murata 18 3 9 6 15 22 30 -8 14.36 +0.64
9 Virtus 18 1 5 12 7 22 49 -27 12.90 -5.90
10 La Fiorita 18 2 3 13 7 16 46 -30 13.65 -6.65

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Tre Fiori 26 20.98 +5.02
2 Folgore Falciano 22 17.51 +4.49
3 Montevito 23 21.58 +1.42
4 Cosmos 20 18.94 +1.06
5 Domagnano 21 20.04 +0.96

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 La Fiorita 7 13.65 -6.65
2 Virtus 7 12.90 -5.90
3 Faetano 22 23.21 -1.21
4 Libertas 17 16.83 +0.17
5 Murata 15 14.36 +0.64

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Tre Fiori 1658 26 -25 6 6.3 -0.3
Montevito 1591 23 -6 6 7.0 -1.0
Faetano 1679 22 +85 7 5.7 +1.3
Folgore Falciano 1526 22 -22 5 4.5 +0.5
Domagnano 1698 21 +100 7 6.1 +0.9
Cosmos 1530 20 -56 6 5.3 +0.7
Libertas 1487 17 -17 5 4.9 +0.1
Murata 1423 15 +0 4 3.8 +0.2
La Fiorita 1286 7 +23 4 2.6 +1.4
Virtus 1224 7 -90 0 3.2 -3.2

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team COS DOM FAE FF LF LIB MON MUR TF VIR
Cosmos —
0-1-1
2.68
0-0-2
1.54
1-0-1
3.21
2-0-0
4.19
0-2-0
3.15
2-0-0
1.93
0-2-0
3.18
0-1-1
2.11
2-0-0
3.57
Domagnano
1-1-0
2.69
 —
1-0-1
2.25
1-0-1
3.28
1-0-1
4.57
1-1-0
2.63
1-1-0
2.35
0-1-1
3.85
1-0-1
2.17
1-1-0
3.78
Faetano
2-0-0
3.85
1-0-1
3.12
 —
1-1-0
3.21
2-0-0
4.37
1-1-0
3.74
0-0-2
3.05
1-1-0
3.95
0-0-2
2.80
1-1-0
4.22
Folgore Falciano
1-0-1
2.16
1-0-1
2.09
0-1-1
2.17
 —
2-0-0
3.25
1-1-0
2.81
0-2-0
1.93
1-1-0
3.10
0-1-1
2.10
2-0-0
3.92
La Fiorita
0-0-2
1.22
1-0-1
0.88
0-0-2
1.05
0-0-2
2.13
 —
0-0-2
2.66
0-0-2
1.99
0-2-0
2.51
0-0-2
2.05
1-1-0
2.97
Libertas
0-2-0
2.22
0-1-1
2.73
0-1-1
1.64
0-1-1
2.55
2-0-0
2.71
 —
0-1-1
1.78
1-1-0
3.07
0-1-1
1.67
1-1-0
3.86
Montevito
0-0-2
3.45
0-1-1
3.02
2-0-0
2.32
0-2-0
3.45
2-0-0
3.41
1-1-0
3.60
 —
1-1-0
3.93
1-0-1
2.43
2-0-0
4.47
Murata
0-2-0
2.20
1-1-0
1.54
0-1-1
1.44
0-1-1
2.27
0-2-0
2.88
0-1-1
2.30
0-1-1
1.46
 —
1-0-1
1.28
1-0-1
3.04
Tre Fiori
1-1-0
3.26
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
2.57
1-1-0
3.27
2-0-0
3.34
1-1-0
3.71
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
4.12
 —
1-1-0
2.26
Virtus
0-0-2
1.82
0-1-1
1.60
0-1-1
1.19
0-0-2
1.47
0-1-1
2.40
0-1-1
1.53
0-0-2
0.96
1-0-1
2.33
0-1-1
3.11
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.62 +7.3
Allowed 0.90 -5.4
Differential 0.95 +3.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
06.67%6.11%6.11%3.89%0.56%0.56%23.89%
16.11%17.78%4.44%4.44%0.56%1.67%35.00%
26.11%4.44%6.67%2.22%1.67%1.11%22.22%
33.89%4.44%2.22%—1.11%—11.67%
40.56%0.56%1.67%1.11%——3.89%
5+0.56%1.67%1.11%———3.33%
Total23.89%35.00%22.22%11.67%3.89%3.33%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.51 1.51 +0.00
SD 1.39 1.39 2.00
CV 0.92 0.92 —
Max 7 7 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
15.56%16.67%———5.56%27.78%
2—11.11%5.56%—5.56%—22.22%
35.56%5.56%——5.56%—16.67%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+———————
Total27.78%50.00%5.56%—11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.67 1.44 +0.22
SD 1.33 1.82 2.21
CV 0.80 1.26 —
Max 4 7 +4
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
15.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
211.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+5.56%5.56%————11.11%
Total33.33%38.89%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 1.06 +0.89
SD 1.89 1.00 2.32
CV 0.97 0.95 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——5.56%———5.56%
111.11%22.22%22.22%———55.56%
25.56%—————5.56%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4———5.56%——5.56%
5+—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
Total27.78%27.78%38.89%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.22 +0.78
SD 1.64 0.94 1.80
CV 0.82 0.77 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
111.11%16.67%————27.78%
211.11%—5.56%———16.67%
311.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total44.44%27.78%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 0.94 +0.33
SD 1.18 1.06 1.78
CV 0.92 1.12 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——33.33%11.11%——44.44%
1—11.11%5.56%5.56%—5.56%27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%—5.56%22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total—16.67%50.00%22.22%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.56 -1.67
SD 0.96 1.58 1.75
CV 1.08 0.62 —
Max 3 7 +1
Min 0 1 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%—11.11%——38.89%
1—22.22%—5.56%——27.78%
25.56%—11.11%———16.67%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%16.67%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.22 -0.06
SD 1.25 1.06 1.63
CV 1.07 0.87 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
15.56%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—27.78%
25.56%16.67%5.56%———27.78%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%44.44%27.78%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.78 1.22 +0.56
SD 1.73 1.00 1.92
CV 0.98 0.82 —
Max 7 4 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——11.11%———11.11%
111.11%38.89%5.56%5.56%—5.56%66.67%
2——11.11%———11.11%
3—5.56%——5.56%—11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%44.44%27.78%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.67 -0.44
SD 0.81 1.28 1.38
CV 0.66 0.77 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%————22.22%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
216.67%5.56%5.56%———27.78%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4——5.56%5.56%——11.11%
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total38.89%33.33%16.67%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.89 1.00 +0.89
SD 1.64 1.03 1.45
CV 0.87 1.03 —
Max 6 3 +4
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—5.56%—5.56%5.56%5.56%22.22%
1—22.22%—11.11%——33.33%
25.56%—5.56%16.67%11.11%5.56%44.44%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total5.56%27.78%5.56%33.33%16.67%11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 2.72 -1.50
SD 0.81 1.71 1.89
CV 0.66 0.63 —
Max 2 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Domagnano 1698 21 20.04 +0.96 66.0% 13 14 18 20 22 25 29
Tre Fiori 1691 26 20.98 +5.02 95.0% 15 16 19 20 23 26 31
Faetano 1681 22 23.21 -1.21 38.0% 14 17 21 23 25 28 32
Montevito 1607 23 21.58 +1.42 68.0% 14 16 19 21 24 26 30
Cosmos 1530 20 18.94 +1.06 63.0% 10 12 16 19 22 24 27
Libertas 1487 17 16.83 +0.17 61.0% 8 12 15 17 18 22 24
Folgore Falciano 1475 22 17.51 +4.49 97.0% 9 12 15 18 20 22 27
Murata 1423 15 14.36 +0.64 63.0% 6 8 12 15 16 19 22
La Fiorita 1286 7 13.65 -6.65 1.0% 7 9 11 13 16 19 20
Virtus 1224 7 12.90 -5.90 3.0% 6 8 11 13 15 18 20

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+6.67%
Strong Edge
37.78%31.11%31.11%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 23.20 Elo pts.
212 Elo
0.005 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.28 goals
Neutral
-2+0.11+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.9
One-Team Race
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
16%
Tre Fiori, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Comfortable
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.6 * Some Luck: 2.6 to 3.89 * Lucky: 3.89 to 5.19 * Wild Swing: 5.19 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.27 * Close: 1.27 to 1.9 * Off: 1.9 to 2.54 * Way Off: 2.54 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.61 points
Some Luck
03.258
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.00
Pinpoint
01.594
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
97.00%
Folgore Falciano
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
1.00%
La Fiorita
050
Season Outliers
Expected
3 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.19
Balanced
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 160.90
1.86
Moderate Separation
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
76%
Slight Edge
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 95%
94%
Clear Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
59%
Some Drama
0%55%100%
Blowouts
Expected
17%
Occasional
0%21%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.62
Predictable
00.612
Matchup Imbalance
0.40
Slight Separation
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.37
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
-0.20
Weak Carryover
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Upset-Prone
0%21%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
22%
Very Shaky
0%17%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.19 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.19 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.70
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.78
Overconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.124
Well Within Noise
00.1870.5

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Faetano 3
Folgore Falciano 0

Second Round

Montevito 1
Folgore Falciano 0

Quarterfinals

Tre Fiori 4
Faetano 1

Sim: 6.0%

Finals

Faetano 1
Tre Fiori 0

Sim: 6.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Tre Fiori16.00%17.00%19.00%19.00%15.00%6.00%7.00%1.00%——
Montevito22.00%25.00%14.00%15.00%12.00%4.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%—
Faetano40.00%26.00%14.00%9.00%5.00%2.00%1.00%2.00%1.00%—
Folgore Falciano2.00%2.00%11.00%8.00%20.00%20.00%10.00%11.00%10.00%6.00%
Domagnano12.00%13.00%22.00%14.00%14.00%9.00%8.00%6.00%2.00%—
Cosmos7.00%12.00%14.00%16.00%12.00%16.00%8.00%5.00%8.00%2.00%
Libertas1.00%2.00%5.00%12.00%6.00%22.00%22.00%17.00%10.00%3.00%
Murata—2.00%1.00%5.00%5.00%9.00%19.00%18.00%25.00%16.00%
Virtus—1.00%—1.00%4.00%6.00%7.00%19.00%21.00%41.00%
La Fiorita———1.00%7.00%6.00%14.00%18.00%22.00%32.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Tre Fiori 29.00% —
Faetano 10.00% 1.00%
Montevito 23.00% 1.00%
Domagnano 37.00% 2.00%
Cosmos 41.00% 10.00%
Libertas 67.00% 13.00%
Folgore Falciano 61.00% 16.00%
Murata 51.00% 41.00%
La Fiorita 45.00% 54.00%
Virtus 36.00% 62.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoLa FioritaLibertasMontevitoMurataTre FioriVirtus
Cosmos0.0%4.00%6.2%16.00%0.0%3.00%100.0%3.00%50.0%8.00%25.0%12.00%
Domagnano100.0%4.00%35.0%20.00%66.7%3.00%50.0%4.00%77.8%18.00%64.3%14.00%
Faetano93.8%16.00%65.0%20.00%70.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%60.0%5.00%61.1%18.00%100.0%3.00%57.1%14.00%50.0%2.00%
Folgore Falciano100.0%3.00%33.3%3.00%30.0%10.00%30.0%10.00%0.0%2.00%
La Fiorita0.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%
Libertas0.0%3.00%50.0%4.00%40.0%5.00%33.3%3.00%50.0%4.00%
Montevito50.0%8.00%22.2%18.00%38.9%18.00%70.0%10.00%100.0%3.00%66.7%3.00%66.7%3.00%58.8%17.00%
Murata0.0%3.00%33.3%3.00%
Tre Fiori75.0%12.00%35.7%14.00%42.9%14.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%4.00%41.2%17.00%
Virtus50.0%2.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoLibertasMontevitoMurataTre FioriVirtus
Cosmos50.0%2.00%20.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%
Domagnano50.0%2.00%52.9%17.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%70.0%10.00%50.0%6.00%
Faetano80.0%5.00%47.1%17.00%60.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%60.0%20.00%42.9%14.00%
Folgore Falciano0.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%40.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Libertas0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%50.0%2.00%
Montevito30.0%10.00%40.0%20.00%33.3%3.00%60.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%
Murata0.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori100.0%3.00%50.0%6.00%57.1%14.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%40.0%5.00%
Virtus0.0%1.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1990-10-01 Domagnano W 3-153.7 1437 1510 28.97% 31.51% 39.51%-0.23 +39.5 2
1990-10-01 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-353.7 1510 1437 39.51% 31.51% 28.97%+0.23 -39.5 0
1990-10-01 Montevito L 0-257.2 1600 1582 41.41% 31.54% 27.05%+0.19 -47.3 0
1990-10-01 @ La Fiorita W 2-057.2 1582 1600 27.05% 31.54% 41.41%-0.19 +47.3 2
1990-10-01 Faetano D 1-164.1 1474 1640 18.51% 30.97% 50.52%-0.67 +4.1 1
1990-10-01 @ Libertas D 1-164.1 1640 1474 50.52% 30.97% 18.51%+0.67 -4.1 1
1990-10-01 Cosmos D 2-261.8 1463 1451 40.62% 31.55% 27.83%+0.17 -1.1 1
1990-10-01 @ Murata D 2-261.8 1451 1463 27.83% 31.55% 40.62%-0.17 +1.1 1
1990-10-01 Virtus D 1-157.9 1446 1500 31.55% 31.56% 36.89%-0.14 +0.6 1
1990-10-01 @ Tre Fiori D 1-157.9 1500 1446 36.89% 31.56% 31.55%+0.14 -0.6 1
1990-10-08 Cosmos W 4-360.7 1636 1452 58.02% 30.31% 11.67%+0.98 +8.4 3
1990-10-08 @ Faetano L 3-460.7 1452 1636 11.67% 30.31% 58.02%-0.98 -8.4 1
1990-10-08 Montevito D 0-059.9 1476 1630 19.71% 31.08% 49.21%-0.61 +4.1 3
1990-10-08 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-059.9 1630 1476 49.21% 31.08% 19.71%+0.61 -4.1 3
1990-10-08 Murata D 1-160.6 1553 1461 49.95% 31.19% 18.86%+0.54 -3.9 1
1990-10-08 @ La Fiorita D 1-160.6 1461 1553 18.86% 31.19% 49.95%-0.54 +3.9 2
1990-10-08 Domagnano D 0-054.1 1478 1470 40.08% 31.56% 28.36%+0.15 -1.5 2
1990-10-08 @ Libertas D 0-054.1 1470 1478 28.36% 31.56% 40.08%-0.15 +1.5 1
1990-10-08 Tre Fiori L 1-355.5 1499 1447 45.65% 31.41% 22.94%+0.36 -44.4 1
1990-10-08 @ Virtus W 3-155.5 1447 1499 22.94% 31.41% 45.65%-0.36 +44.4 3
1990-10-15 Montevito W 4-159.5 1443 1626 17.03% 30.83% 52.14%-0.75 +70.5 3
1990-10-15 @ Cosmos L 1-459.5 1626 1443 52.14% 30.83% 17.03%+0.75 -70.5 3
1990-10-15 Libertas W 3-043.9 1472 1477 38.41% 31.58% 30.01%+0.09 +54.5 3
1990-10-15 @ Domagnano L 0-343.9 1477 1472 30.01% 31.58% 38.41%-0.09 -54.5 2
1990-10-15 Murata W 5-147.2 1644 1465 57.64% 30.37% 11.99%+0.95 +29.4 5
1990-10-15 @ Faetano L 1-547.2 1465 1644 11.99% 30.37% 57.64%-0.95 -29.4 2
1990-10-15 Folgore Falciano W 2-046.2 1491 1481 40.47% 31.55% 27.97%+0.16 +35.8 5
1990-10-15 @ Tre Fiori L 0-246.2 1481 1491 27.97% 31.55% 40.47%-0.16 -35.7 3
1990-10-15 La Fiorita D 2-265.2 1455 1549 26.27% 31.43% 42.29%-0.33 +1.4 2
1990-10-15 @ Virtus D 2-265.2 1549 1455 42.29% 31.43% 26.27%+0.33 -1.4 2
1990-10-22 Faetano L 0-153.5 1514 1674 19.09% 31.02% 49.88%-0.64 -14.3 3
1990-10-22 @ Cosmos W 1-053.5 1674 1514 49.88% 31.02% 19.09%+0.64 +14.3 7
1990-10-22 Folgore Falciano W 1-046.7 1526 1445 48.89% 31.25% 19.85%+0.49 +14.8 5
1990-10-22 @ Domagnano L 0-146.7 1445 1526 19.85% 31.25% 48.89%-0.49 -14.8 3
1990-10-22 Tre Fiori L 2-657.4 1548 1527 41.77% 31.53% 26.70%+0.21 -63.9 2
1990-10-22 @ La Fiorita W 6-257.4 1527 1548 26.70% 31.53% 41.77%-0.21 +63.9 7
1990-10-22 Montevito L 1-349.4 1422 1555 21.79% 31.22% 46.99%-0.52 -25.8 2
1990-10-22 @ Libertas W 3-149.4 1555 1422 46.99% 31.22% 21.79%+0.52 +25.8 5
1990-10-22 Virtus L 0-245.9 1436 1456 36.24% 31.59% 32.17%+0.01 -42.8 2
1990-10-22 @ Murata W 2-045.9 1456 1436 32.17% 31.59% 36.24%-0.01 +42.8 4
1990-10-29 Virtus W 4-044.8 1500 1499 39.10% 31.57% 29.33%+0.11 +70.1 5
1990-10-29 @ Cosmos L 0-444.8 1499 1500 29.33% 31.57% 39.10%-0.11 -70.1 4
1990-10-29 Faetano W 2-168.0 1541 1688 20.37% 31.13% 48.51%-0.58 +27.0 7
1990-10-29 @ Domagnano L 1-268.0 1688 1541 48.51% 31.13% 20.37%+0.58 -27.0 7
1990-10-29 Tre Fiori L 0-158.9 1581 1591 37.69% 31.58% 30.73%+0.06 -23.4 5
1990-10-29 @ Montevito W 1-058.9 1591 1581 30.73% 31.58% 37.69%-0.06 +23.4 9
1990-10-29 La Fiorita W 3-045.0 1396 1484 27.07% 31.46% 41.47%-0.30 +68.7 4
1990-10-29 @ Libertas L 0-345.0 1484 1396 41.47% 31.46% 27.07%+0.30 -68.7 2
1990-10-29 Folgore Falciano D 1-154.1 1393 1430 33.92% 31.58% 34.50%-0.06 +0.1 3
1990-10-29 @ Murata D 1-154.1 1430 1393 34.50% 31.58% 33.92%+0.06 -0.1 4
1990-11-05 Murata D 1-158.9 1570 1393 57.47% 30.40% 12.13%+0.94 -6.1 6
1990-11-05 @ Cosmos D 1-158.9 1393 1570 12.13% 30.40% 57.47%-0.94 +6.1 4
1990-11-05 Folgore Falciano L 0-244.7 1415 1430 37.03% 31.58% 31.38%+0.04 -43.5 2
1990-11-05 @ La Fiorita W 2-044.7 1430 1415 31.38% 31.58% 37.03%-0.04 +43.5 6
1990-11-05 Montevito L 0-161.3 1614 1558 46.14% 31.39% 22.47%+0.38 -27.4 9
1990-11-05 @ Tre Fiori W 1-061.3 1558 1614 22.47% 31.39% 46.14%-0.38 +27.4 7
1990-11-05 Faetano L 2-649.0 1429 1661 13.18% 30.29% 56.52%-0.98 -26.9 4
1990-11-05 @ Virtus W 6-249.0 1661 1429 56.52% 30.29% 13.18%+0.98 +26.8 9
1990-11-12 Virtus D 1-159.1 1568 1402 56.64% 30.52% 12.84%+0.89 -5.9 8
1990-11-12 @ Domagnano D 1-159.1 1402 1568 12.84% 30.52% 56.64%-0.89 +5.9 5
1990-11-12 Faetano W 2-167.3 1585 1688 25.22% 31.39% 43.39%-0.38 +24.5 9
1990-11-12 @ Montevito L 1-267.3 1688 1585 43.39% 31.39% 25.22%+0.38 -24.5 9
1990-11-12 Cosmos W 1-055.8 1473 1564 26.76% 31.45% 41.79%-0.32 +25.2 8
1990-11-12 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-155.8 1564 1473 41.79% 31.45% 26.76%+0.32 -25.2 6
1990-11-12 Libertas L 0-241.2 1372 1465 26.39% 31.44% 42.17%-0.33 -34.3 2
1990-11-12 @ La Fiorita W 2-041.2 1465 1372 42.17% 31.44% 26.39%+0.33 +34.3 6
1990-11-12 Murata L 0-158.5 1587 1399 58.28% 30.27% 11.45%+0.99 -34.1 9
1990-11-12 @ Tre Fiori W 1-058.5 1399 1587 11.45% 30.27% 58.28%-0.99 +34.1 6
1990-11-19 Tre Fiori L 0-260.9 1663 1553 51.82% 31.05% 17.13%+0.63 -57.4 9
1990-11-19 @ Faetano W 2-060.9 1553 1663 17.13% 31.05% 51.82%-0.63 +57.4 11
1990-11-19 Cosmos L 1-343.9 1337 1538 15.47% 30.64% 53.89%-0.84 -19.8 2
1990-11-19 @ La Fiorita W 3-143.9 1538 1337 53.89% 30.64% 15.47%+0.84 +19.8 8
1990-11-19 Virtus D 1-156.7 1499 1408 49.88% 31.19% 18.93%+0.54 -3.9 7
1990-11-19 @ Libertas D 1-156.7 1408 1499 18.93% 31.19% 49.88%-0.54 +3.9 6
1990-11-19 Montevito L 1-253.3 1433 1609 17.58% 30.88% 51.54%-0.72 -12.6 6
1990-11-19 @ Murata W 2-153.3 1609 1433 51.54% 30.88% 17.58%+0.72 +12.6 11
1990-11-26 Libertas D 1-162.0 1558 1495 46.84% 31.36% 21.79%+0.41 -3.1 9
1990-11-26 @ Cosmos D 1-162.0 1495 1558 21.79% 31.36% 46.84%-0.41 +3.1 8
1990-11-26 Murata D 1-162.0 1622 1421 59.25% 30.10% 10.65%+1.06 -6.7 12
1990-11-26 @ Montevito D 1-162.0 1421 1622 10.65% 30.10% 59.25%-1.06 +6.7 7
1990-11-26 Faetano D 1-163.7 1499 1606 24.70% 31.37% 43.93%-0.40 +2.3 9
1990-11-26 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-163.7 1606 1499 43.93% 31.37% 24.70%+0.40 -2.3 10
1990-11-26 La Fiorita W 2-037.3 1610 1318 64.65% 28.73% 6.61%+1.49 +10.8 13
1990-11-26 @ Tre Fiori L 0-237.3 1318 1610 6.61% 28.73% 64.65%-1.49 -10.8 2
1990-11-26 Domagnano L 0-642.0 1412 1562 20.03% 31.10% 48.87%-0.60 -77.6 6
1990-11-26 @ Virtus W 6-042.0 1562 1412 48.87% 31.10% 20.03%+0.60 +77.6 10
1990-12-03 Murata L 0-167.6 1640 1427 60.00% 29.95% 10.05%+1.11 -35.1 10
1990-12-03 @ Domagnano W 1-067.6 1427 1640 10.05% 29.95% 60.00%-1.11 +35.1 9
1990-12-03 La Fiorita W 3-249.2 1604 1307 64.88% 28.66% 6.47%+1.51 +5.0 12
1990-12-03 @ Faetano L 2-349.2 1307 1604 6.47% 28.66% 64.88%-1.51 -5.0 2
1990-12-03 Cosmos D 0-058.0 1498 1555 31.13% 31.55% 37.31%-0.16 +0.8 9
1990-12-03 @ Libertas D 0-058.0 1555 1498 37.31% 31.55% 31.13%+0.16 -0.8 10
1990-12-03 Domagnano D 2-267.6 1463 1605 20.85% 31.16% 47.99%-0.56 +2.5 10
1990-12-03 @ Murata D 2-267.6 1605 1463 47.99% 31.16% 20.85%+0.56 -2.5 11
1990-12-03 Folgore Falciano L 2-351.2 1334 1501 18.45% 30.97% 50.59%-0.68 -12.4 6
1990-12-03 @ Virtus W 3-251.2 1501 1334 50.59% 30.97% 18.45%+0.68 +12.4 11
1990-12-10 Folgore Falciano W 3-046.5 1554 1513 44.27% 31.46% 24.27%+0.30 +46.9 12
1990-12-10 @ Cosmos L 0-346.5 1513 1554 24.27% 31.46% 44.27%-0.30 -46.9 11
1990-12-10 Virtus D 1-158.2 1609 1322 64.35% 28.83% 6.82%+1.46 -8.2 13
1990-12-10 @ Faetano D 1-158.2 1322 1609 6.82% 28.83% 64.35%-1.46 +8.2 7
1990-12-10 Domagnano D 2-271.7 1615 1602 40.80% 31.55% 27.65%+0.17 -1.2 13
1990-12-10 @ Montevito D 2-271.7 1602 1615 27.65% 31.55% 40.80%-0.17 +1.1 12
1990-12-10 La Fiorita D 1-153.2 1465 1302 56.44% 30.55% 13.01%+0.88 -5.8 11
1990-12-10 @ Murata D 1-153.2 1302 1465 13.01% 30.55% 56.44%-0.88 +5.8 3
1990-12-10 Libertas W 1-050.8 1621 1499 52.89% 30.95% 16.16%+0.68 +12.6 15
1990-12-10 @ Tre Fiori L 0-150.8 1499 1621 16.16% 30.95% 52.89%-0.68 -12.6 9
1991-03-01 Montevito L 1-264.4 1600 1614 37.16% 31.58% 31.26%+0.04 -21.8 13
1991-03-01 @ Faetano W 2-164.4 1614 1600 31.26% 31.58% 37.16%-0.04 +21.8 15
1991-03-01 La Fiorita W 3-033.6 1467 1308 56.09% 30.60% 13.31%+0.86 +29.5 13
1991-03-01 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-333.6 1308 1467 13.31% 30.60% 56.09%-0.86 -29.5 3
1991-03-01 Libertas L 1-352.5 1459 1487 35.29% 31.59% 33.13%-0.02 -36.4 11
1991-03-01 @ Murata W 3-152.5 1487 1459 33.13% 31.59% 35.29%+0.02 +36.4 11
1991-03-01 Domagnano W 3-158.6 1634 1603 42.96% 31.50% 25.54%+0.25 +29.0 17
1991-03-01 @ Tre Fiori L 1-358.6 1603 1634 25.54% 31.50% 42.96%-0.25 -29.0 12
1991-03-01 Cosmos L 0-142.0 1330 1601 10.75% 29.78% 59.47%-1.17 -8.9 7
1991-03-01 @ Virtus W 1-042.0 1601 1330 59.47% 29.78% 10.75%+1.17 +8.9 14
1991-03-08 Murata W 2-042.0 1496 1423 47.97% 31.31% 20.72%+0.45 +28.7 15
1991-03-08 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-242.0 1423 1496 20.72% 31.31% 47.97%-0.45 -28.7 11
1991-03-08 Faetano L 0-236.0 1278 1579 9.21% 29.35% 61.44%-1.31 -14.6 3
1991-03-08 @ La Fiorita W 2-036.0 1579 1278 61.44% 29.35% 9.21%+1.31 +14.6 15
1991-03-08 Cosmos W 4-262.4 1663 1610 45.64% 31.41% 22.94%+0.36 +24.0 19
1991-03-08 @ Tre Fiori L 2-462.4 1610 1663 22.94% 31.41% 45.64%-0.36 -24.0 14
1991-03-08 Montevito L 2-351.6 1321 1636 8.56% 29.13% 62.32%-1.37 -6.5 7
1991-03-08 @ Virtus W 3-251.6 1636 1321 62.32% 29.13% 8.56%+1.37 +6.5 17
1991-03-15 La Fiorita W 2-142.2 1586 1263 66.14% 28.20% 5.66%+1.63 +4.7 16
1991-03-15 @ Cosmos L 1-242.2 1263 1586 5.66% 28.20% 66.14%-1.63 -4.7 3
1991-03-15 Montevito W 2-057.2 1574 1643 29.58% 31.52% 38.89%-0.21 +45.0 14
1991-03-15 @ Domagnano L 0-257.2 1643 1574 38.89% 31.52% 29.58%+0.21 -45.1 17
1991-03-15 Virtus W 3-034.0 1525 1315 59.84% 29.98% 10.18%+1.10 +23.5 17
1991-03-15 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-334.0 1315 1525 10.18% 29.98% 59.84%-1.10 -23.5 7
1991-03-15 Tre Fiori D 2-271.7 1523 1687 18.72% 30.99% 50.29%-0.66 +3.0 12
1991-03-15 @ Libertas D 2-271.7 1687 1523 50.29% 30.99% 18.72%+0.66 -3.0 20
1991-03-15 Faetano D 1-159.7 1394 1593 15.62% 30.66% 53.72%-0.83 +5.0 12
1991-03-15 @ Murata D 1-159.7 1593 1394 53.72% 30.66% 15.62%+0.83 -5.0 16
1991-03-22 Tre Fiori D 0-063.7 1591 1684 26.43% 31.44% 42.13%-0.33 +2.1 17
1991-03-22 @ Cosmos D 0-063.7 1684 1591 42.13% 31.44% 26.43%+0.33 -2.1 21
1991-03-22 Domagnano W 1-058.5 1588 1619 34.75% 31.59% 33.67%-0.04 +21.6 18
1991-03-22 @ Faetano L 0-158.5 1619 1588 33.67% 31.59% 34.75%+0.04 -21.6 14
1991-03-22 La Fiorita W 7-134.7 1598 1259 66.88% 27.90% 5.22%+1.71 +19.7 19
1991-03-22 @ Montevito L 1-734.7 1259 1598 5.22% 27.90% 66.88%-1.71 -19.6 3
1991-03-22 Folgore Falciano L 0-155.4 1526 1548 35.99% 31.59% 32.43%+0.00 -22.6 12
1991-03-22 @ Libertas W 1-055.4 1548 1526 32.43% 31.59% 35.99%+0.00 +22.6 19
1991-03-22 Murata L 1-343.0 1291 1399 24.63% 31.37% 44.00%-0.40 -28.2 7
1991-03-22 @ Virtus W 3-143.0 1399 1291 44.00% 31.37% 24.63%+0.40 +28.2 14
1991-03-29 Domagnano D 1-166.1 1593 1598 38.38% 31.58% 30.04%+0.09 -1.0 18
1991-03-29 @ Cosmos D 1-166.1 1598 1593 30.04% 31.58% 38.38%-0.09 +1.0 15
1991-03-29 Folgore Falciano D 1-166.0 1617 1571 44.93% 31.44% 23.63%+0.33 -2.6 20
1991-03-29 @ Montevito D 1-166.0 1571 1617 23.63% 31.44% 44.93%-0.33 +2.6 20
1991-03-29 Virtus W 3-251.7 1239 1263 35.75% 31.59% 32.66%+0.00 +18.9 5
1991-03-29 @ La Fiorita L 2-351.7 1263 1239 32.66% 31.59% 35.75%+0.00 -18.9 7
1991-03-29 Murata D 1-157.5 1503 1427 48.28% 31.29% 20.43%+0.47 -3.5 13
1991-03-29 @ Libertas D 1-157.5 1427 1503 20.43% 31.29% 48.28%-0.47 +3.5 15
1991-03-29 Faetano W 2-160.8 1682 1610 47.81% 31.31% 20.87%+0.45 +14.4 23
1991-03-29 @ Tre Fiori L 1-260.8 1610 1682 20.87% 31.31% 47.81%-0.45 -14.5 18
1991-04-05 La Fiorita W 2-034.4 1599 1258 66.97% 27.87% 5.16%+1.71 +8.5 17
1991-04-05 @ Domagnano L 0-234.4 1258 1599 5.16% 27.87% 66.97%-1.71 -8.5 5
1991-04-05 Folgore Falciano W 3-050.3 1595 1573 41.94% 31.52% 26.54%+0.21 +50.0 20
1991-04-05 @ Faetano L 0-350.3 1573 1595 26.54% 31.52% 41.94%-0.21 -50.0 20
1991-04-05 Cosmos L 1-265.7 1615 1592 42.02% 31.52% 26.46%+0.22 -23.9 20
1991-04-05 @ Montevito W 2-165.7 1592 1615 26.46% 31.52% 42.02%-0.22 +23.9 20
1991-04-05 Tre Fiori L 3-461.6 1431 1696 11.08% 29.87% 59.05%-1.14 -8.0 15
1991-04-05 @ Murata W 4-361.6 1696 1431 59.05% 29.87% 11.08%+1.14 +8.0 25
1991-04-05 Libertas L 2-443.4 1244 1500 11.64% 29.99% 58.36%-1.10 -14.0 7
1991-04-05 @ Virtus W 4-243.4 1500 1244 58.36% 29.99% 11.64%+1.10 +14.0 15
1991-04-12 Tre Fiori W 3-164.8 1607 1704 25.96% 31.42% 42.61%-0.35 +41.9 19
1991-04-12 @ Domagnano L 1-364.8 1704 1607 42.61% 31.42% 25.96%+0.35 -41.9 25
1991-04-12 Virtus W 4-242.2 1591 1230 67.83% 27.49% 4.68%+1.81 +5.9 22
1991-04-12 @ Montevito L 2-442.2 1230 1591 4.68% 27.49% 67.83%-1.81 -5.9 7
1991-04-12 Libertas D 2-266.4 1523 1514 40.32% 31.55% 28.13%+0.15 -1.1 21
1991-04-12 @ Folgore Falciano D 2-266.4 1514 1523 28.13% 31.55% 40.32%-0.15 +1.1 16
1991-04-19 Libertas W 3-046.6 1645 1515 53.68% 30.88% 15.44%+0.72 +33.2 22
1991-04-19 @ Faetano L 0-346.6 1515 1645 15.44% 30.88% 53.68%-0.72 -33.2 16
1991-04-19 Tre Fiori D 0-062.1 1522 1662 21.09% 31.18% 47.74%-0.55 +3.7 22
1991-04-19 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-062.1 1662 1522 47.74% 31.18% 21.09%+0.55 -3.7 26
1991-04-19 Domagnano W 2-161.9 1250 1649 5.54% 27.63% 66.83%-1.77 +36.6 7
1991-04-19 @ La Fiorita L 1-261.9 1649 1250 66.83% 27.63% 5.54%+1.77 -36.6 19
1991-04-26 Cosmos W 7-155.1 1613 1616 38.61% 31.57% 29.82%+0.09 +85.7 21
1991-04-26 @ Domagnano L 1-755.1 1616 1613 29.82% 31.57% 38.61%-0.09 -85.7 20
1991-04-26 Libertas D 0-059.0 1597 1482 52.25% 31.01% 16.74%+0.65 -5.1 23
1991-04-26 @ Montevito D 0-059.0 1482 1597 16.74% 31.01% 52.25%-0.65 +5.1 17

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1991-05-03 Folgore Falciano W 3-048.0 1679 1526 52.58% 30.89% 16.53%+0.72 +35.0 1-0
1991-05-03 @ Faetano L 0-348.0 1526 1679 16.53% 30.89% 52.58%-0.72 -35.0 0-1
1991-05-10 Montevito L 0-151.2 1491 1591 21.52% 31.28% 47.20%-0.47 -15.7 0-2
1991-05-10 @ Folgore Falciano W 1-051.2 1591 1491 47.20% 31.28% 21.52%+0.47 +15.7 1-0
1991-05-17 Faetano W 4-162.9 1658 1714 26.75% 31.49% 41.76%-0.26 +58.3 1-0
1991-05-17 @ Tre Fiori L 1-462.9 1714 1658 41.76% 31.49% 26.75%+0.26 -58.3 1-1
1991-05-31 Tre Fiori W 1-063.4 1655 1717 26.02% 31.47% 42.51%-0.29 +25.6 2-1
1991-05-31 @ Faetano L 0-163.4 1717 1655 42.51% 31.47% 26.02%+0.29 -25.6 1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1991-04-19 5.54% @ La Fiorita 1250 2 Domagnano 1649 1
2 1990-12-03 10.05% Murata 1427 1 @ Domagnano 1640 0
3 1990-11-12 11.45% Murata 1399 1 @ Tre Fiori 1587 0
4 1990-10-15 17.03% @ Cosmos 1443 4 Montevito 1626 1
5 1990-11-19 17.13% Tre Fiori 1553 2 @ Faetano 1663 0
6 1990-10-29 20.37% @ Domagnano 1541 2 Faetano 1688 1
7 1990-11-05 22.47% Montevito 1558 1 @ Tre Fiori 1614 0
8 1990-10-08 22.94% Tre Fiori 1447 3 @ Virtus 1499 1
9 1990-11-12 25.22% @ Montevito 1585 2 Faetano 1688 1
10 1991-04-12 25.96% @ Domagnano 1607 3 Tre Fiori 1704 1
11 1991-05-31 * 26.02% @ Faetano 1655 1 Tre Fiori 1717 0
12 1991-04-05 26.46% Cosmos 1592 2 @ Montevito 1615 1
13 1990-10-22 26.70% Tre Fiori 1527 6 @ La Fiorita 1548 2
14 1991-05-17 * 26.75% @ Tre Fiori 1658 4 Faetano 1714 1
15 1990-11-12 26.76% @ Folgore Falciano 1473 1 Cosmos 1564 0
16 1990-10-01 27.05% Montevito 1582 2 @ La Fiorita 1600 0
17 1990-10-29 27.07% @ Libertas 1396 3 La Fiorita 1484 0
18 1990-10-01 28.97% @ Folgore Falciano 1437 3 Domagnano 1510 1
19 1991-03-15 29.58% @ Domagnano 1574 2 Montevito 1643 0
20 1990-10-29 30.73% Tre Fiori 1591 1 @ Montevito 1581 0
21 1991-03-01 31.26% Montevito 1614 2 @ Faetano 1600 1
22 1990-11-05 31.38% Folgore Falciano 1430 2 @ La Fiorita 1415 0
23 1990-10-22 32.17% Virtus 1456 2 @ Murata 1436 0
24 1991-03-22 32.43% Folgore Falciano 1548 1 @ Libertas 1526 0
25 1991-03-01 33.13% Libertas 1487 3 @ Murata 1459 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-04-26 85.67 @ Domagnano 7 1613 38.61% Cosmos 1 1616 29.82% 31.57%
2 1990-11-26 77.60 Domagnano 6 1562 48.87% @ Virtus 0 1412 20.03% 31.10%
3 1990-10-15 70.51 @ Cosmos 4 1443 17.03% Montevito 1 1626 52.14% 30.83%
4 1990-10-29 70.12 @ Cosmos 4 1500 39.10% Virtus 0 1499 29.33% 31.57%
5 1990-10-29 68.73 @ Libertas 3 1396 27.07% La Fiorita 0 1484 41.47% 31.46%
6 1990-10-22 63.90 Tre Fiori 6 1527 26.70% @ La Fiorita 2 1548 41.77% 31.53%
7 1991-05-17 * 58.31 @ Tre Fiori 4 1658 26.75% Faetano 1 1714 41.76% 31.49%
8 1990-11-19 57.37 Tre Fiori 2 1553 17.13% @ Faetano 0 1663 51.82% 31.05%
9 1990-10-15 54.55 @ Domagnano 3 1472 38.41% Libertas 0 1477 30.01% 31.58%
10 1991-04-05 50.02 @ Faetano 3 1595 41.94% Folgore Falciano 0 1573 26.54% 31.52%
11 1990-10-01 47.31 Montevito 2 1582 27.05% @ La Fiorita 0 1600 41.41% 31.54%
12 1990-12-10 46.90 @ Cosmos 3 1554 44.27% Folgore Falciano 0 1513 24.27% 31.46%
13 1991-03-15 45.06 @ Domagnano 2 1574 29.58% Montevito 0 1643 38.89% 31.52%
14 1990-10-08 44.36 Tre Fiori 3 1447 22.94% @ Virtus 1 1499 45.65% 31.41%
15 1990-11-05 43.47 Folgore Falciano 2 1430 31.38% @ La Fiorita 0 1415 37.03% 31.58%
16 1990-10-22 42.80 Virtus 2 1456 32.17% @ Murata 0 1436 36.24% 31.59%
17 1991-04-12 41.88 @ Domagnano 3 1607 25.96% Tre Fiori 1 1704 42.61% 31.42%
18 1990-10-01 39.49 @ Folgore Falciano 3 1437 28.97% Domagnano 1 1510 39.51% 31.51%
19 1991-04-19 36.62 @ La Fiorita 2 1250 5.54% Domagnano 1 1649 66.83% 27.63%
20 1991-03-01 36.38 Libertas 3 1487 33.13% @ Murata 1 1459 35.29% 31.59%
21 1990-10-15 35.75 @ Tre Fiori 2 1491 40.47% Folgore Falciano 0 1481 27.97% 31.55%
22 1990-12-03 35.13 Murata 1 1427 10.05% @ Domagnano 0 1640 60.00% 29.95%
23 1991-05-03 * 35.02 @ Faetano 3 1679 52.58% Folgore Falciano 0 1526 16.53% 30.89%
24 1990-11-12 34.26 Libertas 2 1465 42.17% @ La Fiorita 0 1372 26.39% 31.44%
25 1990-11-12 34.12 Murata 1 1399 11.45% @ Tre Fiori 0 1587 58.28% 30.27%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1990-12-10 71.7 @ Montevito 2 1615 40.80% Domagnano 2 1602 27.65% 31.55%
2 1991-03-15 71.7 @ Libertas 2 1523 18.72% Tre Fiori 2 1687 50.29% 30.99%
3 1990-10-29 68.0 @ Domagnano 2 1541 20.37% Faetano 1 1688 48.51% 31.13%
4 1990-12-03 67.6 @ Murata 2 1463 20.85% Domagnano 2 1605 47.99% 31.16%
5 1990-11-12 67.3 @ Montevito 2 1585 25.22% Faetano 1 1688 43.39% 31.39%
6 1991-04-12 66.4 @ Folgore Falciano 2 1523 40.32% Libertas 2 1514 28.13% 31.55%
7 1991-03-29 66.1 @ Cosmos 1 1593 38.38% Domagnano 1 1598 30.04% 31.58%
8 1991-03-29 66.0 @ Montevito 1 1617 44.93% Folgore Falciano 1 1571 23.63% 31.44%
9 1991-04-05 65.7 Cosmos 2 1592 26.46% @ Montevito 1 1615 42.02% 31.52%
10 1990-10-15 65.2 @ Virtus 2 1455 26.27% La Fiorita 2 1549 42.29% 31.43%
11 1991-04-12 64.8 @ Domagnano 3 1607 25.96% Tre Fiori 1 1704 42.61% 31.42%
12 1991-03-01 64.4 Montevito 2 1614 31.26% @ Faetano 1 1600 37.16% 31.58%
13 1990-10-01 64.1 @ Libertas 1 1474 18.51% Faetano 1 1640 50.52% 30.97%
14 1990-11-26 63.7 @ Folgore Falciano 1 1499 24.70% Faetano 1 1606 43.93% 31.37%
15 1991-03-22 63.7 @ Cosmos 0 1591 26.43% Tre Fiori 0 1684 42.13% 31.44%
16 1991-05-31 * 63.4 @ Faetano 1 1655 26.02% Tre Fiori 0 1717 42.51% 31.47%
17 1991-05-17 * 62.9 @ Tre Fiori 4 1658 26.75% Faetano 1 1714 41.76% 31.49%
18 1991-03-08 62.4 @ Tre Fiori 4 1663 45.64% Cosmos 2 1610 22.94% 31.41%
19 1991-04-19 62.1 @ Folgore Falciano 0 1522 21.09% Tre Fiori 0 1662 47.74% 31.18%
20 1990-11-26 62.0 @ Cosmos 1 1558 46.84% Libertas 1 1495 21.79% 31.36%
21 1990-11-26 62.0 @ Montevito 1 1622 59.25% Murata 1 1421 10.65% 30.10%
22 1990-12-03 61.9 Murata 1 1427 10.05% @ Domagnano 0 1640 60.00% 29.95%
23 1991-04-19 61.9 @ La Fiorita 2 1250 5.54% Domagnano 1 1649 66.83% 27.63%
24 1990-10-01 61.8 @ Murata 2 1463 40.62% Cosmos 2 1451 27.83% 31.55%
25 1991-04-05 61.6 Tre Fiori 4 1696 59.05% @ Murata 3 1431 11.08% 29.87%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1991-03-01 33.6 @ Folgore Falciano 3 1467 56.09% La Fiorita 0 1308 13.31% 30.60%
2 1991-03-15 34.0 @ Folgore Falciano 3 1525 59.84% Virtus 0 1315 10.18% 29.98%
3 1991-04-05 34.4 @ Domagnano 2 1599 66.97% La Fiorita 0 1258 5.16% 27.87%
4 1991-03-22 34.7 @ Montevito 7 1598 66.88% La Fiorita 1 1259 5.22% 27.90%
5 1991-03-08 36.0 Faetano 2 1579 61.44% @ La Fiorita 0 1278 9.21% 29.35%
6 1990-11-26 37.3 @ Tre Fiori 2 1610 64.65% La Fiorita 0 1318 6.61% 28.73%
7 1990-11-12 41.2 Libertas 2 1465 42.17% @ La Fiorita 0 1372 26.39% 31.44%
8 1990-11-26 42.0 Domagnano 6 1562 48.87% @ Virtus 0 1412 20.03% 31.10%
9 1991-03-01 42.0 Cosmos 1 1601 59.47% @ Virtus 0 1330 10.75% 29.78%
10 1991-03-08 42.0 @ Folgore Falciano 2 1496 47.97% Murata 0 1423 20.72% 31.31%
11 1991-03-15 42.2 @ Cosmos 2 1586 66.14% La Fiorita 1 1263 5.66% 28.20%
12 1991-04-12 42.2 @ Montevito 4 1591 67.83% Virtus 2 1230 4.68% 27.49%
13 1991-03-22 43.0 Murata 3 1399 44.00% @ Virtus 1 1291 24.63% 31.37%
14 1991-04-05 43.4 Libertas 4 1500 58.36% @ Virtus 2 1244 11.64% 29.99%
15 1990-10-15 43.9 @ Domagnano 3 1472 38.41% Libertas 0 1477 30.01% 31.58%
16 1990-11-19 43.9 Cosmos 3 1538 53.89% @ La Fiorita 1 1337 15.47% 30.64%
17 1990-11-05 44.7 Folgore Falciano 2 1430 31.38% @ La Fiorita 0 1415 37.03% 31.58%
18 1990-10-29 44.8 @ Cosmos 4 1500 39.10% Virtus 0 1499 29.33% 31.57%
19 1990-10-29 45.0 @ Libertas 3 1396 27.07% La Fiorita 0 1484 41.47% 31.46%
20 1990-10-22 45.9 Virtus 2 1456 32.17% @ Murata 0 1436 36.24% 31.59%
21 1990-10-15 46.2 @ Tre Fiori 2 1491 40.47% Folgore Falciano 0 1481 27.97% 31.55%
22 1990-12-10 46.5 @ Cosmos 3 1554 44.27% Folgore Falciano 0 1513 24.27% 31.46%
23 1991-04-19 46.6 @ Faetano 3 1645 53.68% Libertas 0 1515 15.44% 30.88%
24 1990-10-22 46.7 @ Domagnano 1 1526 48.89% Folgore Falciano 0 1445 19.85% 31.25%
25 1990-10-15 47.2 @ Faetano 5 1644 57.64% Murata 1 1465 11.99% 30.37%