Home / Leagues / San Marino / Campionato Sammarinese / 1991-92
‹ ›

1991-92 Campionato Sammarinese Season

90 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Montevito

25 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Montevito

5.00 points above expected

25 points · 20.00 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Folgore Falciano

5.78 points below expected

9 points · 14.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Montevito 18 10 5 3 25 28 22 +6 20.00 +5.00
2 Tre Fiori 18 8 7 3 23 27 14 +13 22.09 +0.91
3 Libertas 18 8 4 6 20 23 20 +3 17.29 +2.71
4 Cailungo 18 7 6 5 20 26 25 +1 15.70 +4.30
5 Murata 18 7 5 6 19 21 22 -1 16.76 +2.24
6 Domagnano 18 6 6 6 18 29 23 +6 21.39 -3.39
7 Juvenes 18 5 6 7 16 28 23 +5 14.15 +1.85
8 Faetano 18 5 5 8 15 22 25 -3 20.55 -5.55
9 Cosmos 18 6 3 9 15 21 30 -9 17.29 -2.29
10 Folgore Falciano 18 1 7 10 9 12 33 -21 14.78 -5.78

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Montevito 25 20.00 +5.00
2 Cailungo 20 15.70 +4.30
3 Libertas 20 17.29 +2.71
4 Murata 19 16.76 +2.24
5 Juvenes 16 14.15 +1.85

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Folgore Falciano 9 14.78 -5.78
2 Faetano 15 20.55 -5.55
3 Domagnano 18 21.39 -3.39
4 Cosmos 15 17.29 -2.29
5 Tre Fiori 23 22.09 +0.91

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Montevito 1548 25 +25 9 5.4 +3.6
Tre Fiori 1595 23 +7 7 6.2 +0.8
Cailungo 1475 20 +29 8 4.9 +3.1
Libertas 1502 20 +17 6 4.8 +1.2
Murata 1460 19 -3 6 4.9 +1.1
Domagnano 1574 18 +6 6 5.8 +0.2
Juvenes 1452 16 -17 2 4.2 -2.2
Cosmos 1465 15 -5 3 4.3 -1.3
Faetano 1529 15 -16 3 5.7 -2.7
Folgore Falciano 1400 9 -21 2 4.0 -2.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE FF JUV LIB MON MUR TF
Cailungo —
0-2-0
2.42
2-0-0
1.84
1-1-0
1.93
2-0-0
2.95
1-0-1
2.90
0-1-1
2.48
0-1-1
1.94
1-0-1
2.64
0-1-1
1.67
Cosmos
0-2-0
2.95
 —
1-0-1
2.06
0-1-1
2.27
2-0-0
2.91
0-0-2
3.34
1-0-1
2.86
0-0-2
2.44
1-0-1
2.83
1-0-1
1.85
Domagnano
0-0-2
3.55
1-0-1
3.32
 —
1-1-0
2.70
1-1-0
3.63
2-0-0
3.56
0-1-1
3.26
1-1-0
2.88
0-2-0
3.50
0-0-2
2.69
Faetano
0-1-1
3.46
1-1-0
3.10
0-1-1
2.67
 —
1-1-0
3.54
1-1-0
3.44
0-0-2
3.13
0-0-2
2.78
1-0-1
3.30
1-0-1
2.64
Folgore Falciano
0-0-2
2.42
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
1.77
0-1-1
1.85
 —
0-1-1
2.69
0-2-0
2.18
0-1-1
2.14
1-0-1
2.29
0-1-1
1.65
Juvenes
1-0-1
2.47
2-0-0
2.04
0-0-2
1.83
0-1-1
1.95
1-1-0
2.68
 —
1-0-1
2.24
0-0-2
1.93
0-2-0
2.34
0-2-0
1.70
Libertas
1-1-0
2.89
1-0-1
2.51
1-1-0
2.12
2-0-0
2.25
0-2-0
3.20
1-0-1
3.13
 —
1-0-1
2.25
1-0-1
2.83
0-0-2
2.03
Montevito
1-1-0
3.45
2-0-0
2.93
0-1-1
2.49
2-0-0
2.58
1-1-0
3.24
2-0-0
3.46
1-0-1
3.12
 —
1-0-1
3.12
0-2-0
2.37
Murata
1-0-1
2.73
1-0-1
2.54
0-2-0
1.89
1-0-1
2.08
1-0-1
3.08
0-2-0
3.03
1-0-1
2.54
1-0-1
2.25
 —
1-1-0
1.80
Tre Fiori
1-1-0
3.74
1-0-1
3.54
2-0-0
2.68
1-0-1
2.72
1-1-0
3.76
0-2-0
3.71
2-0-0
3.35
0-2-0
3.00
0-1-1
3.59
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.56 +6.6
Allowed 0.65 -7.0
Differential 0.72 +4.1

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.56%6.11%5.00%3.89%1.11%—31.67%
16.11%11.11%8.33%2.78%0.56%0.56%29.44%
25.00%8.33%3.33%3.33%2.22%1.11%23.33%
33.89%2.78%3.33%———10.00%
41.11%0.56%2.22%———3.89%
5+—0.56%1.11%———1.67%
Total31.67%29.44%23.33%10.00%3.89%1.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.32 1.32 +0.00
SD 1.28 1.28 1.73
CV 0.97 0.97 —
Max 7 7 +5
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%—5.56%——33.33%
15.56%5.56%————11.11%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%38.89%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 1.39 +0.06
SD 1.25 1.50 1.63
CV 0.86 1.08 —
Max 4 5 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—16.67%11.11%——38.89%
15.56%5.56%11.11%———22.22%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%—5.56%22.22%
311.11%—5.56%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%11.11%33.33%16.67%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.67 -0.50
SD 1.15 1.75 2.15
CV 0.99 1.05 —
Max 3 7 +3
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
1—22.22%11.11%———33.33%
25.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+—5.56%————5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.61 1.28 +0.33
SD 1.69 0.96 1.97
CV 1.05 0.75 —
Max 6 3 +5
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%11.11%————16.67%
15.56%22.22%16.67%5.56%——50.00%
211.11%5.56%——11.11%—27.78%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%16.67%5.56%11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 1.39 -0.17
SD 0.81 1.24 1.34
CV 0.66 0.90 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%11.11%5.56%—5.56%—50.00%
1—5.56%5.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%22.22%16.67%16.67%11.11%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.67 1.83 -1.17
SD 0.77 1.72 1.58
CV 1.15 0.94 —
Max 2 6 +1
Min 0 0 -5

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
15.56%5.56%16.67%———27.78%
2—5.56%5.56%11.11%——22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total33.33%16.67%38.89%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.28 +0.28
SD 1.89 1.07 1.78
CV 1.21 0.84 —
Max 7 3 +5
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%11.11%5.56%——33.33%
111.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%———22.22%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%33.33%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.11 +0.17
SD 1.23 0.96 1.62
CV 0.96 0.87 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%——5.56%—22.22%
111.11%16.67%————27.78%
25.56%11.11%——5.56%—22.22%
3—11.11%16.67%———27.78%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%16.67%—11.11%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.56 1.22 +0.33
SD 1.15 1.22 1.50
CV 0.74 0.99 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
15.56%11.11%5.56%11.11%——33.33%
2—22.22%————22.22%
35.56%—————5.56%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+———————
Total27.78%38.89%16.67%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 1.22 -0.06
SD 1.15 1.06 1.55
CV 0.99 0.87 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%—5.56%——27.78%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
211.11%—11.11%———22.22%
311.11%—————11.11%
45.56%—5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total55.56%16.67%22.22%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 0.78 +0.72
SD 1.34 1.00 1.71
CV 0.89 1.29 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Tre Fiori 1595 23 22.09 +0.91 64.0% 14 16 20 22 24 27 34
Domagnano 1574 18 21.39 -3.39 20.0% 14 15 19 22 24 27 28
Montevito 1538 25 20.00 +5.00 95.0% 11 14 17 20 23 25 29
Faetano 1529 15 20.55 -5.55 8.0% 13 14 18 21 23 26 28
Libertas 1517 20 17.29 +2.71 87.0% 10 12 15 17 19 22 24
Cailungo 1470 20 15.70 +4.30 92.0% 7 10 13 16 18 21 24
Cosmos 1465 15 17.29 -2.29 32.0% 8 11 15 17 20 23 27
Murata 1460 19 16.76 +2.24 78.0% 8 11 14 17 19 22 25
Juvenes 1452 16 14.15 +1.85 74.0% 7 8 12 14 17 20 24
Folgore Falciano 1400 9 14.78 -5.78 5.0% 7 9 12 14 18 20 21

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-7.78%
No Edge
31.11%30.00%38.89%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -27.08 Elo pts.
318 Elo
0.003 goals per Elo point
0800
Scoring Tilt
Expected
-0.23 goals
Road-Tilted
-2-0.09+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.7
One-Team Race
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
15%
Montevito, 3rd of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.130.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.75 * Some Luck: 2.75 to 4.13 * Lucky: 4.13 to 5.51 * Wild Swing: 5.51 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.54 * Close: 1.54 to 2.3 * Off: 2.3 to 3.07 * Way Off: 3.07 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.76 points
Some Luck
03.449
Average Finish Error
Expected
2.90
Off
01.924
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
95.00%
Montevito
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Folgore Falciano
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.13
Balanced
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 60.91
1.28
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
62%
Even
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
75%
Even
50%76%100%
Close Games
Expected
66%
Very Frequent
0%61%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%15%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.67
Coin-Flip
00.652
Matchup Imbalance
0.24
Very Even
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.21
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.15
Weak Carryover
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
32%
Very Upset-Prone
0%26%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
28%
Very Shaky
0%23%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.35 * Well Above Noise: 0.35 and up.
Probability calibration
0.29
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.46
Overconfident
0.2965111.001.70349
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.178
Near Noise Ceiling
00.1740.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Tre Fiori 2
Libertas 2

Second Round

Libertas 3
Cailungo 2

Quarterfinals

Libertas 3
Montevito 0

Sim: 1.0%

Finals

Montevito 4
Libertas 2

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Montevito15.00%18.00%15.00%13.00%12.00%7.00%9.00%4.00%6.00%1.00%
Tre Fiori42.00%21.00%12.00%9.00%4.00%4.00%3.00%4.00%1.00%—
Libertas1.00%7.00%6.00%14.00%15.00%16.00%14.00%15.00%6.00%6.00%
Cailungo1.00%—9.00%5.00%8.00%17.00%10.00%18.00%19.00%13.00%
Murata3.00%3.00%9.00%11.00%13.00%12.00%16.00%7.00%13.00%13.00%
Domagnano23.00%24.00%15.00%15.00%9.00%4.00%5.00%4.00%1.00%—
Juvenes1.00%1.00%3.00%4.00%2.00%15.00%8.00%20.00%17.00%29.00%
Faetano12.00%18.00%20.00%14.00%12.00%7.00%6.00%6.00%4.00%1.00%
Cosmos2.00%8.00%9.00%10.00%14.00%8.00%18.00%9.00%15.00%7.00%
Folgore Falciano——2.00%5.00%11.00%10.00%11.00%13.00%18.00%30.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Domagnano 22.00% 1.00%
Tre Fiori 15.00% 1.00%
Faetano 31.00% 5.00%
Montevito 32.00% 7.00%
Libertas 60.00% 12.00%
Cosmos 49.00% 22.00%
Murata 48.00% 26.00%
Cailungo 53.00% 32.00%
Juvenes 45.00% 46.00%
Folgore Falciano 45.00% 48.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoJuvenesLibertasMontevitoMurataTre Fiori
Cailungo0.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%50.0%4.00%33.3%3.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%
Cosmos100.0%1.00%0.0%4.00%66.7%9.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%75.0%4.00%33.3%9.00%
Domagnano50.0%4.00%100.0%4.00%46.7%15.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%3.00%100.0%2.00%63.2%19.00%71.4%7.00%38.9%18.00%
Faetano50.0%4.00%33.3%9.00%53.3%15.00%80.0%5.00%38.9%18.00%60.0%5.00%46.7%15.00%
Folgore Falciano100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%2.00%
Juvenes0.0%3.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%
Libertas66.7%3.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%20.0%5.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%14.3%7.00%50.0%2.00%25.0%4.00%
Montevito100.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%36.8%19.00%61.1%18.00%100.0%2.00%85.7%7.00%50.0%4.00%75.0%12.00%
Murata25.0%4.00%28.6%7.00%40.0%5.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%4.00%37.5%8.00%
Tre Fiori100.0%2.00%66.7%9.00%61.1%18.00%53.3%15.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%75.0%4.00%25.0%12.00%62.5%8.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoJuvenesLibertasMontevitoMurataTre Fiori
Cailungo0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Cosmos62.5%8.00%33.3%3.00%0.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%
Domagnano100.0%1.00%37.5%8.00%60.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%25.0%8.00%75.0%4.00%40.0%10.00%
Faetano66.7%3.00%40.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%9.00%60.0%10.00%
Folgore Falciano100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%
Juvenes0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Libertas0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Montevito100.0%1.00%100.0%3.00%75.0%8.00%66.7%9.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%2.00%50.0%14.00%
Murata50.0%2.00%25.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%60.0%10.00%40.0%10.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%14.00%0.0%1.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1991-10-01 Libertas L 2-453.6 1453 1482 30.20% 31.50% 38.30%-0.18 -8.1 0
1991-10-01 @ Cailungo W 4-253.6 1482 1453 38.30% 31.50% 30.20%+0.18 +8.1 2
1991-10-01 Folgore Falciano W 1-050.4 1498 1477 37.26% 31.54% 31.20%-0.02 +5.7 2
1991-10-01 @ Cosmos L 0-150.4 1477 1498 31.20% 31.54% 37.26%+0.02 -5.7 0
1991-10-01 Domagnano D 1-165.8 1559 1574 32.11% 31.56% 36.32%-0.13 +0.1 1
1991-10-01 @ Faetano D 1-165.8 1574 1559 36.32% 31.56% 32.11%+0.13 -0.1 1
1991-10-01 Murata D 0-052.3 1414 1456 28.53% 31.41% 40.07%-0.22 +0.4 1
1991-10-01 @ Juvenes D 0-052.3 1456 1414 40.07% 31.41% 28.53%+0.22 -0.4 1
1991-10-01 Montevito D 1-164.4 1561 1527 38.98% 31.47% 29.55%+0.02 -0.3 1
1991-10-01 @ Tre Fiori D 1-164.4 1527 1561 29.55% 31.47% 38.98%-0.02 +0.3 1
1991-10-08 Domagnano W 2-053.7 1444 1574 19.11% 29.93% 50.96%-0.49 +15.5 2
1991-10-08 @ Cailungo L 0-253.7 1574 1444 50.96% 29.93% 19.11%+0.49 -15.6 1
1991-10-08 Faetano D 1-163.6 1504 1559 26.84% 31.27% 41.89%-0.26 +0.5 3
1991-10-08 @ Cosmos D 1-163.6 1559 1504 41.89% 31.27% 26.84%+0.26 -0.5 2
1991-10-08 Folgore Falciano D 0-056.8 1527 1471 41.96% 31.27% 26.77%+0.09 -0.6 2
1991-10-08 @ Montevito D 0-056.8 1471 1527 26.77% 31.27% 41.96%-0.09 +0.6 1
1991-10-08 Tre Fiori L 0-247.4 1490 1560 25.05% 31.08% 43.87%-0.31 -9.2 2
1991-10-08 @ Libertas W 2-047.4 1560 1490 43.87% 31.08% 25.05%+0.31 +9.2 3
1991-10-08 Juvenes D 0-052.3 1456 1415 39.95% 31.41% 28.63%+0.04 -0.4 2
1991-10-08 @ Murata D 0-052.3 1415 1456 28.63% 31.41% 39.95%-0.04 +0.4 2
1991-10-15 Murata D 0-057.6 1558 1455 47.91% 30.52% 21.57%+0.24 -1.0 2
1991-10-15 @ Domagnano D 0-057.6 1455 1558 21.57% 30.52% 47.91%-0.24 +1.0 3
1991-10-15 Tre Fiori W 2-162.3 1559 1570 32.71% 31.58% 35.72%-0.12 +5.9 4
1991-10-15 @ Faetano L 1-262.3 1570 1559 35.72% 31.58% 32.71%+0.12 -5.9 3
1991-10-15 Cosmos L 0-246.2 1472 1504 29.69% 31.48% 38.83%-0.19 -10.4 1
1991-10-15 @ Folgore Falciano W 2-046.2 1504 1472 38.83% 31.48% 29.69%+0.19 +10.4 5
1991-10-15 Montevito L 1-250.8 1415 1526 20.77% 30.34% 48.89%-0.44 -4.0 2
1991-10-15 @ Juvenes W 2-150.8 1526 1415 48.89% 30.34% 20.77%+0.44 +4.0 4
1991-10-15 Cailungo D 2-264.1 1481 1460 37.12% 31.54% 31.33%-0.02 -0.1 3
1991-10-15 @ Libertas D 2-264.1 1460 1481 31.33% 31.54% 37.12%+0.02 +0.1 3
1991-10-22 Cailungo L 1-261.6 1557 1460 47.19% 30.64% 22.18%+0.22 -7.3 2
1991-10-22 @ Domagnano W 2-161.6 1460 1557 22.18% 30.64% 47.19%-0.22 +7.3 5
1991-10-22 Cosmos W 3-262.9 1530 1515 36.44% 31.56% 32.00%-0.04 +5.2 6
1991-10-22 @ Montevito L 2-362.9 1515 1530 32.00% 31.56% 36.44%+0.04 -5.2 5
1991-10-22 Folgore Falciano W 1-049.8 1411 1461 27.48% 31.33% 41.19%-0.24 +7.0 4
1991-10-22 @ Juvenes L 0-149.8 1461 1411 41.19% 31.33% 27.48%+0.24 -7.0 1
1991-10-22 Libertas W 2-156.0 1456 1480 30.83% 31.53% 37.64%-0.16 +6.1 5
1991-10-22 @ Murata L 1-256.0 1480 1456 37.64% 31.53% 30.83%+0.16 -6.1 3
1991-10-22 Faetano W 4-261.8 1564 1565 34.03% 31.59% 34.38%-0.09 +8.9 5
1991-10-22 @ Tre Fiori L 2-461.8 1565 1564 34.38% 31.59% 34.03%+0.09 -8.9 4
1991-10-29 Murata L 0-343.9 1467 1462 34.94% 31.58% 33.47%-0.07 -16.9 5
1991-10-29 @ Cailungo W 3-043.9 1462 1467 33.47% 31.58% 34.94%+0.07 +16.9 7
1991-10-29 Cosmos W 2-049.0 1556 1510 40.67% 31.37% 27.97%+0.06 +9.9 6
1991-10-29 @ Faetano L 0-249.0 1510 1556 27.97% 31.37% 40.67%-0.06 -9.9 5
1991-10-29 Montevito L 1-349.9 1454 1536 23.86% 30.92% 45.23%-0.34 -7.7 1
1991-10-29 @ Folgore Falciano W 3-149.9 1536 1454 45.23% 30.92% 23.86%+0.34 +7.6 8
1991-10-29 Domagnano L 2-355.6 1418 1550 18.88% 29.86% 51.26%-0.50 -3.5 4
1991-10-29 @ Juvenes W 3-255.6 1550 1418 51.26% 29.86% 18.88%+0.50 +3.5 4
1991-10-29 Libertas W 2-046.3 1573 1474 47.31% 30.62% 22.08%+0.22 +8.3 7
1991-10-29 @ Tre Fiori L 0-246.3 1474 1573 22.08% 30.62% 47.31%-0.22 -8.3 3
1991-11-05 Juvenes L 2-550.3 1451 1414 39.27% 31.45% 29.27%+0.03 -13.4 5
1991-11-05 @ Cailungo W 5-250.3 1414 1451 29.27% 31.45% 39.27%-0.03 +13.4 6
1991-11-05 Faetano W 4-262.0 1554 1566 32.47% 31.57% 35.96%-0.12 +9.2 6
1991-11-05 @ Domagnano L 2-462.0 1566 1554 35.96% 31.57% 32.47%+0.12 -9.2 6
1991-11-05 Cosmos W 3-046.4 1466 1500 29.57% 31.47% 38.96%-0.19 +18.3 5
1991-11-05 @ Libertas L 0-346.4 1500 1466 38.96% 31.47% 29.57%+0.19 -18.3 5
1991-11-05 Montevito W 4-260.6 1479 1543 25.81% 31.17% 43.02%-0.29 +10.5 9
1991-11-05 @ Murata L 2-460.6 1543 1479 43.02% 31.17% 25.81%+0.29 -10.5 8
1991-11-05 Folgore Falciano D 2-267.9 1581 1447 51.48% 29.81% 18.71%+0.34 -0.9 8
1991-11-05 @ Tre Fiori D 2-267.9 1447 1581 18.71% 29.81% 51.48%-0.34 +0.9 2
1991-11-12 Cosmos L 2-366.7 1563 1481 45.22% 30.92% 23.86%+0.17 -6.7 6
1991-11-12 @ Domagnano W 3-266.7 1481 1563 23.86% 30.92% 45.22%-0.17 +6.7 7
1991-11-12 Juvenes D 1-161.1 1557 1428 50.87% 29.95% 19.18%+0.32 -1.1 7
1991-11-12 @ Faetano D 1-161.1 1428 1557 19.18% 29.95% 50.87%-0.32 +1.1 7
1991-11-12 Murata W 3-152.7 1533 1490 40.23% 31.40% 28.37%+0.05 +8.7 10
1991-11-12 @ Montevito L 1-352.7 1490 1533 28.37% 31.40% 40.23%-0.05 -8.7 9
1991-11-12 Folgore Falciano D 0-054.3 1484 1447 39.37% 31.45% 29.18%+0.03 -0.4 6
1991-11-12 @ Libertas D 0-054.3 1447 1484 29.18% 31.45% 39.37%-0.03 +0.4 3
1991-11-12 Cailungo W 1-047.4 1580 1437 52.44% 29.58% 17.98%+0.36 +3.7 10
1991-11-12 @ Tre Fiori L 0-147.4 1437 1580 17.98% 29.58% 52.44%-0.36 -3.7 5
1991-11-19 Murata W 3-044.8 1488 1481 35.23% 31.58% 33.19%-0.06 +16.3 9
1991-11-19 @ Cosmos L 0-344.8 1481 1488 33.19% 31.58% 35.23%+0.06 -16.3 9
1991-11-19 Folgore Falciano W 6-145.0 1556 1448 48.50% 30.41% 21.08%+0.26 +15.5 8
1991-11-19 @ Domagnano L 1-645.0 1448 1556 21.08% 30.41% 48.50%-0.26 -15.5 3
1991-11-19 Cailungo L 1-261.2 1556 1433 50.12% 30.10% 19.78%+0.30 -7.7 7
1991-11-19 @ Faetano W 2-161.2 1433 1556 19.78% 30.10% 50.12%-0.30 +7.7 7
1991-11-19 Tre Fiori D 0-061.2 1542 1584 28.49% 31.41% 40.11%-0.22 +0.4 11
1991-11-19 @ Montevito D 0-061.2 1584 1542 40.11% 31.41% 28.49%+0.22 -0.4 11
1991-11-19 Libertas L 1-251.9 1429 1484 26.92% 31.28% 41.80%-0.26 -4.8 7
1991-11-19 @ Juvenes W 2-151.9 1484 1429 41.80% 31.28% 26.92%+0.26 +4.8 8
1991-11-26 Cosmos D 0-054.9 1441 1504 25.90% 31.18% 42.92%-0.28 +0.6 8
1991-11-26 @ Cailungo D 0-054.9 1504 1441 42.92% 31.18% 25.90%+0.28 -0.6 10
1991-11-26 Libertas L 0-155.5 1542 1489 41.59% 31.30% 27.11%+0.08 -7.0 11
1991-11-26 @ Montevito W 1-055.5 1489 1542 27.11% 31.30% 41.59%-0.08 +7.0 10
1991-11-26 Faetano L 1-348.3 1432 1548 20.39% 30.26% 49.36%-0.45 -6.7 3
1991-11-26 @ Folgore Falciano W 3-148.3 1548 1432 49.36% 30.26% 20.39%+0.45 +6.8 9
1991-11-26 Domagnano D 1-162.9 1465 1572 21.22% 30.44% 48.34%-0.42 +0.9 10
1991-11-26 @ Murata D 1-162.9 1572 1465 48.34% 30.44% 21.22%+0.42 -0.9 9
1991-11-26 Juvenes D 0-057.8 1583 1424 54.18% 29.13% 16.69%+0.42 -1.5 12
1991-11-26 @ Tre Fiori D 0-057.8 1424 1583 16.69% 29.13% 54.18%-0.42 +1.5 8
1991-12-03 Libertas W 2-157.0 1504 1496 35.37% 31.58% 33.05%-0.06 +5.6 12
1991-12-03 @ Cosmos L 1-257.0 1496 1504 33.05% 31.58% 35.37%+0.06 -5.6 10
1991-12-03 Faetano W 1-056.3 1535 1555 31.44% 31.55% 37.01%-0.15 +6.4 13
1991-12-03 @ Montevito L 0-156.3 1555 1535 37.01% 31.55% 31.44%+0.15 -6.4 9
1991-12-03 Domagnano D 0-057.3 1426 1571 17.80% 29.52% 52.68%-0.54 +1.4 4
1991-12-03 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-057.3 1571 1426 52.68% 29.52% 17.80%+0.54 -1.4 10
1991-12-03 Cailungo L 0-147.0 1426 1442 31.95% 31.56% 36.49%-0.14 -5.8 8
1991-12-03 @ Juvenes W 1-047.0 1442 1426 36.49% 31.56% 31.95%+0.14 +5.8 10
1991-12-03 Murata L 0-158.2 1582 1466 49.42% 30.24% 20.33%+0.28 -8.0 12
1991-12-03 @ Tre Fiori W 1-058.2 1466 1582 20.33% 30.24% 49.42%-0.28 +8.1 12
1991-12-10 Montevito L 2-357.7 1448 1541 22.53% 30.70% 46.77%-0.38 -4.0 10
1991-12-10 @ Cailungo W 3-257.7 1541 1448 46.77% 30.70% 22.53%+0.38 +4.0 15
1991-12-10 Tre Fiori L 0-351.0 1569 1574 33.57% 31.58% 34.84%-0.10 -16.4 10
1991-12-10 @ Domagnano W 3-051.0 1574 1569 34.84% 31.58% 33.57%+0.10 +16.4 14
1991-12-10 Murata W 2-155.7 1427 1474 27.92% 31.36% 40.72%-0.23 +6.5 6
1991-12-10 @ Folgore Falciano L 1-255.7 1474 1427 40.72% 31.36% 27.92%+0.23 -6.5 12
1991-12-10 Cosmos W 2-158.1 1420 1509 22.99% 30.78% 46.23%-0.37 +7.2 10
1991-12-10 @ Juvenes L 1-258.1 1509 1420 46.23% 30.78% 22.99%+0.37 -7.2 12
1991-12-10 Faetano W 1-056.0 1490 1548 26.52% 31.24% 42.24%-0.27 +7.1 12
1991-12-10 @ Libertas L 0-156.0 1548 1490 42.24% 31.24% 26.52%+0.27 -7.1 9
1992-03-01 Juvenes L 2-750.6 1502 1427 44.44% 31.01% 24.55%+0.15 -22.5 12
1992-03-01 @ Cosmos W 7-250.6 1427 1502 24.55% 31.01% 44.44%-0.15 +22.5 12
1992-03-01 Libertas L 1-261.4 1553 1497 41.91% 31.27% 26.82%+0.09 -6.6 10
1992-03-01 @ Domagnano W 2-161.4 1497 1553 26.82% 31.27% 41.91%-0.09 +6.6 14
1992-03-01 Folgore Falciano D 1-160.6 1541 1433 48.43% 30.43% 21.14%+0.25 -0.9 10
1992-03-01 @ Faetano D 1-160.6 1433 1541 21.14% 30.43% 48.43%-0.25 +0.9 7
1992-03-01 Cailungo D 1-161.1 1545 1444 47.74% 30.55% 21.72%+0.24 -0.9 16
1992-03-01 @ Montevito D 1-161.1 1444 1545 21.72% 30.55% 47.74%-0.24 +0.9 11
1992-03-01 Tre Fiori D 1-163.7 1467 1590 19.70% 30.09% 50.21%-0.47 +1.1 13
1992-03-01 @ Murata D 1-163.7 1590 1467 50.21% 30.09% 19.70%+0.47 -1.1 15
1992-03-08 Tre Fiori D 0-058.7 1444 1589 17.83% 29.53% 52.64%-0.54 +1.4 12
1992-03-08 @ Cailungo D 0-058.7 1589 1444 52.64% 29.53% 17.83%+0.54 -1.4 16
1992-03-08 Domagnano L 0-449.1 1544 1546 33.96% 31.59% 34.46%-0.09 -21.7 16
1992-03-08 @ Montevito W 4-049.1 1546 1544 34.46% 31.59% 33.96%+0.09 +21.6 12
1992-03-08 Juvenes L 0-346.7 1504 1450 41.72% 31.29% 26.99%+0.09 -19.2 14
1992-03-08 @ Libertas W 3-046.7 1450 1504 26.99% 31.29% 41.72%-0.09 +19.2 14
1992-03-08 Faetano L 0-149.6 1468 1540 24.91% 31.06% 44.03%-0.31 -4.8 13
1992-03-08 @ Murata W 1-049.6 1540 1468 44.03% 31.06% 24.91%+0.31 +4.8 12
1992-03-15 Folgore Falciano W 4-146.2 1446 1434 35.83% 31.57% 32.60%-0.05 +13.6 14
1992-03-15 @ Cailungo L 1-446.2 1434 1446 32.60% 31.57% 35.83%+0.05 -13.6 7
1992-03-15 Montevito D 1-164.5 1568 1523 40.49% 31.38% 28.13%+0.06 -0.4 13
1992-03-15 @ Domagnano D 1-164.5 1523 1568 28.13% 31.38% 40.49%-0.06 +0.4 17
1992-03-15 Murata L 1-260.8 1545 1463 45.26% 30.91% 23.83%+0.17 -7.1 12
1992-03-15 @ Faetano W 2-160.8 1463 1545 23.83% 30.91% 45.26%-0.17 +7.1 15
1992-03-15 Tre Fiori D 2-268.8 1469 1588 20.08% 30.18% 49.74%-0.46 +0.8 15
1992-03-15 @ Juvenes D 2-268.8 1588 1469 49.74% 30.18% 20.08%+0.46 -0.8 17
1992-03-22 Faetano D 0-056.9 1459 1538 24.16% 30.96% 44.88%-0.33 +0.8 15
1992-03-22 @ Cailungo D 0-056.9 1538 1459 44.88% 30.96% 24.16%+0.33 -0.8 13
1992-03-22 Montevito L 0-246.8 1480 1523 28.31% 31.39% 40.29%-0.22 -10.0 12
1992-03-22 @ Cosmos W 2-046.8 1523 1480 40.29% 31.39% 28.31%+0.22 +10.0 19
1992-03-22 Juvenes W 2-154.8 1567 1470 47.25% 30.63% 22.12%+0.22 +4.2 15
1992-03-22 @ Domagnano L 1-254.8 1470 1567 22.12% 30.63% 47.25%-0.22 -4.2 15
1992-03-22 Folgore Falciano W 2-151.4 1470 1421 41.11% 31.34% 27.56%+0.07 +4.9 17
1992-03-22 @ Murata L 1-251.4 1421 1470 27.56% 31.34% 41.11%-0.07 -4.9 7
1992-03-29 Montevito L 1-260.1 1537 1533 34.77% 31.59% 33.64%-0.07 -5.8 13
1992-03-29 @ Faetano W 2-160.1 1533 1537 33.64% 31.59% 34.77%+0.07 +5.8 21
1992-03-29 Juvenes D 0-052.7 1416 1465 27.57% 31.34% 41.10%-0.24 +0.5 8
1992-03-29 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-052.7 1465 1416 41.10% 31.34% 27.57%+0.24 -0.5 16
1992-03-29 Domagnano D 1-163.5 1485 1572 23.25% 30.82% 45.93%-0.36 +0.8 15
1992-03-29 @ Libertas D 1-163.5 1572 1485 45.93% 30.82% 23.25%+0.36 -0.8 16
1992-03-29 Cailungo L 1-351.9 1475 1460 36.38% 31.56% 32.06%-0.04 -10.4 17
1992-03-29 @ Murata W 3-151.9 1460 1475 32.06% 31.56% 36.38%+0.04 +10.4 17
1992-03-29 Cosmos L 0-352.6 1587 1470 49.56% 30.22% 20.22%+0.28 -22.1 17
1992-03-29 @ Tre Fiori W 3-052.6 1470 1587 20.22% 30.22% 49.56%-0.28 +22.1 14
1992-04-05 Cailungo L 2-355.7 1416 1471 27.01% 31.29% 41.71%-0.26 -4.6 8
1992-04-05 @ Folgore Falciano W 3-255.7 1471 1416 41.71% 31.29% 27.01%+0.26 +4.6 19
1992-04-05 Faetano L 0-245.6 1465 1531 25.54% 31.14% 43.32%-0.29 -9.3 16
1992-04-05 @ Juvenes W 2-045.6 1531 1465 43.32% 31.14% 25.54%+0.29 +9.3 15
1992-04-05 Montevito L 0-151.0 1485 1539 27.05% 31.29% 41.65%-0.25 -5.1 15
1992-04-05 @ Libertas W 1-051.0 1539 1485 41.65% 31.29% 27.05%+0.25 +5.2 23
1992-04-05 Cosmos W 2-156.8 1465 1492 30.50% 31.51% 37.99%-0.17 +6.2 19
1992-04-05 @ Murata L 1-256.8 1492 1465 37.99% 31.51% 30.50%+0.17 -6.2 14
1992-04-05 Domagnano W 1-057.2 1565 1571 33.35% 31.58% 35.06%-0.10 +6.2 19
1992-04-05 @ Tre Fiori L 0-157.2 1571 1565 35.06% 31.58% 33.35%+0.10 -6.2 16
1992-04-12 Domagnano L 0-247.1 1486 1565 24.11% 30.95% 44.94%-0.33 -8.9 14
1992-04-12 @ Cosmos W 2-047.1 1565 1486 44.94% 30.95% 24.11%+0.33 +8.9 18
1992-04-12 Juvenes W 3-258.3 1544 1456 46.12% 30.80% 23.09%+0.19 +4.1 25
1992-04-12 @ Montevito L 2-358.3 1456 1544 23.09% 30.80% 46.12%-0.19 -4.1 16
1992-04-12 Tre Fiori L 0-439.2 1412 1571 16.68% 29.12% 54.20%-0.59 -12.4 8
1992-04-12 @ Folgore Falciano W 4-039.2 1571 1412 54.20% 29.12% 16.68%+0.59 +12.4 21
1992-04-12 Murata W 2-046.3 1480 1471 35.50% 31.58% 32.92%-0.06 +11.2 17
1992-04-12 @ Libertas L 0-246.3 1471 1480 32.92% 31.58% 35.50%+0.06 -11.2 19
1992-04-19 Cailungo D 0-055.0 1477 1475 34.42% 31.59% 33.99%-0.08 -0.0 15
1992-04-19 @ Cosmos D 0-055.0 1475 1477 33.99% 31.59% 34.42%+0.08 +0.0 20
1992-04-19 Libertas D 0-053.2 1399 1491 22.72% 30.73% 46.54%-0.37 +0.9 9
1992-04-19 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-053.2 1491 1399 46.54% 30.73% 22.72%+0.37 -0.9 18
1992-04-26 Tre Fiori L 0-344.3 1477 1583 21.22% 30.44% 48.33%-0.42 -11.7 15
1992-04-26 @ Cosmos W 3-044.3 1583 1477 48.33% 30.44% 21.22%+0.42 +11.7 23
1992-04-26 Libertas L 1-356.8 1541 1490 41.19% 31.33% 27.48%+0.07 -11.4 15
1992-04-26 @ Faetano W 3-156.8 1490 1541 27.48% 31.33% 41.19%-0.07 +11.3 20

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1992-05-03 Libertas D 2-270.1 1595 1502 46.71% 30.71% 22.58%+0.29 -0.6 0-0-1
1992-05-03 @ Tre Fiori D 2-270.1 1502 1595 22.58% 30.71% 46.71%-0.29 +0.6 0-0-1
1992-05-10 Libertas L 2-359.9 1475 1502 30.42% 31.51% 38.07%-0.09 -5.0 0-1
1992-05-10 @ Cailungo W 3-259.9 1502 1475 38.07% 31.51% 30.42%+0.09 +5.0 1-0-1
1992-05-17 Libertas L 0-350.0 1548 1507 39.93% 31.42% 28.66%+0.13 -18.6 0-1
1992-05-17 @ Montevito W 3-050.0 1507 1548 28.66% 31.42% 39.93%-0.13 +18.6 2-0-1
1992-05-31 Libertas W 4-259.2 1530 1526 34.73% 31.59% 33.69%+0.01 +8.8 1-1
1992-05-31 @ Montevito L 2-459.2 1526 1530 33.69% 31.59% 34.73%-0.01 -8.8 2-1-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1991-10-08 19.11% @ Cailungo 1444 2 Domagnano 1574 0
2 1991-11-19 19.78% Cailungo 1433 2 @ Faetano 1556 1
3 1992-03-29 20.22% Cosmos 1470 3 @ Tre Fiori 1587 0
4 1991-12-03 20.33% Murata 1466 1 @ Tre Fiori 1582 0
5 1991-10-22 22.18% Cailungo 1460 2 @ Domagnano 1557 1
6 1991-12-10 22.99% @ Juvenes 1420 2 Cosmos 1509 1
7 1992-03-15 23.83% Murata 1463 2 @ Faetano 1545 1
8 1991-11-12 23.86% Cosmos 1481 3 @ Domagnano 1563 2
9 1992-03-01 24.55% Juvenes 1427 7 @ Cosmos 1502 2
10 1991-11-05 25.81% @ Murata 1479 4 Montevito 1543 2
11 1991-12-10 26.52% @ Libertas 1490 1 Faetano 1548 0
12 1992-03-01 26.82% Libertas 1497 2 @ Domagnano 1553 1
13 1992-03-08 26.99% Juvenes 1450 3 @ Libertas 1504 0
14 1991-11-26 27.11% Libertas 1489 1 @ Montevito 1542 0
15 1991-10-22 27.48% @ Juvenes 1411 1 Folgore Falciano 1461 0
16 1992-04-26 27.48% Libertas 1490 3 @ Faetano 1541 1
17 1991-12-10 27.92% @ Folgore Falciano 1427 2 Murata 1474 1
18 1992-05-17 * 28.66% Libertas 1507 3 @ Montevito 1548 0
19 1991-11-05 29.27% Juvenes 1414 5 @ Cailungo 1451 2
20 1991-11-05 29.57% @ Libertas 1466 3 Cosmos 1500 0
21 1992-04-05 30.50% @ Murata 1465 2 Cosmos 1492 1
22 1991-10-22 30.83% @ Murata 1456 2 Libertas 1480 1
23 1991-12-03 31.44% @ Montevito 1535 1 Faetano 1555 0
24 1992-03-29 32.06% Cailungo 1460 3 @ Murata 1475 1
25 1991-11-05 32.47% @ Domagnano 1554 4 Faetano 1566 2

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-03-01 22.54 Juvenes 7 1427 24.55% @ Cosmos 2 1502 44.44% 31.01%
2 1992-03-29 22.07 Cosmos 3 1470 20.22% @ Tre Fiori 0 1587 49.56% 30.22%
3 1992-03-08 21.65 Domagnano 4 1546 34.46% @ Montevito 0 1544 33.96% 31.59%
4 1992-03-08 19.23 Juvenes 3 1450 26.99% @ Libertas 0 1504 41.72% 31.29%
5 1992-05-17 * 18.60 Libertas 3 1507 28.66% @ Montevito 0 1548 39.93% 31.42%
6 1991-11-05 18.26 @ Libertas 3 1466 29.57% Cosmos 0 1500 38.96% 31.47%
7 1991-10-29 16.90 Murata 3 1462 33.47% @ Cailungo 0 1467 34.94% 31.58%
8 1991-12-10 16.44 Tre Fiori 3 1574 34.84% @ Domagnano 0 1569 33.57% 31.58%
9 1991-11-19 16.31 @ Cosmos 3 1488 35.23% Murata 0 1481 33.19% 31.58%
10 1991-10-08 15.56 @ Cailungo 2 1444 19.11% Domagnano 0 1574 50.96% 29.93%
11 1991-11-19 15.51 @ Domagnano 6 1556 48.50% Folgore Falciano 1 1448 21.08% 30.41%
12 1992-03-15 13.59 @ Cailungo 4 1446 35.83% Folgore Falciano 1 1434 32.60% 31.57%
13 1991-11-05 13.42 Juvenes 5 1414 29.27% @ Cailungo 2 1451 39.27% 31.45%
14 1992-04-12 12.43 Tre Fiori 4 1571 54.20% @ Folgore Falciano 0 1412 16.68% 29.12%
15 1992-04-26 11.69 Tre Fiori 3 1583 48.33% @ Cosmos 0 1477 21.22% 30.44%
16 1992-04-26 11.35 Libertas 3 1490 27.48% @ Faetano 1 1541 41.19% 31.33%
17 1992-04-12 11.17 @ Libertas 2 1480 35.50% Murata 0 1471 32.92% 31.58%
18 1991-11-05 10.51 @ Murata 4 1479 25.81% Montevito 2 1543 43.02% 31.17%
19 1991-10-15 10.39 Cosmos 2 1504 38.83% @ Folgore Falciano 0 1472 29.69% 31.48%
20 1992-03-29 10.36 Cailungo 3 1460 32.06% @ Murata 1 1475 36.38% 31.56%
21 1992-03-22 10.04 Montevito 2 1523 40.29% @ Cosmos 0 1480 28.31% 31.39%
22 1991-10-29 9.95 @ Faetano 2 1556 40.67% Cosmos 0 1510 27.97% 31.37%
23 1992-04-05 9.30 Faetano 2 1531 43.32% @ Juvenes 0 1465 25.54% 31.14%
24 1991-11-05 9.19 @ Domagnano 4 1554 32.47% Faetano 2 1566 35.96% 31.57%
25 1991-10-08 9.17 Tre Fiori 2 1560 43.87% @ Libertas 0 1490 25.05% 31.08%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-05-03 * 70.1 @ Tre Fiori 2 1595 46.71% Libertas 2 1502 22.58% 30.71%
2 1992-03-15 68.8 @ Juvenes 2 1469 20.08% Tre Fiori 2 1588 49.74% 30.18%
3 1991-11-05 67.9 @ Tre Fiori 2 1581 51.48% Folgore Falciano 2 1447 18.71% 29.81%
4 1991-11-12 66.7 Cosmos 3 1481 23.86% @ Domagnano 2 1563 45.22% 30.92%
5 1991-10-01 65.8 @ Faetano 1 1559 32.11% Domagnano 1 1574 36.32% 31.56%
6 1992-03-15 64.5 @ Domagnano 1 1568 40.49% Montevito 1 1523 28.13% 31.38%
7 1991-10-01 64.4 @ Tre Fiori 1 1561 38.98% Montevito 1 1527 29.55% 31.47%
8 1991-10-15 64.1 @ Libertas 2 1481 37.12% Cailungo 2 1460 31.33% 31.54%
9 1992-03-01 63.7 @ Murata 1 1467 19.70% Tre Fiori 1 1590 50.21% 30.09%
10 1991-10-08 63.6 @ Cosmos 1 1504 26.84% Faetano 1 1559 41.89% 31.27%
11 1992-03-29 63.5 @ Libertas 1 1485 23.25% Domagnano 1 1572 45.93% 30.82%
12 1991-10-22 62.9 @ Montevito 3 1530 36.44% Cosmos 2 1515 32.00% 31.56%
13 1991-11-26 62.9 @ Murata 1 1465 21.22% Domagnano 1 1572 48.34% 30.44%
14 1991-10-15 62.3 @ Faetano 2 1559 32.71% Tre Fiori 1 1570 35.72% 31.58%
15 1991-11-05 62.0 @ Domagnano 4 1554 32.47% Faetano 2 1566 35.96% 31.57%
16 1991-10-22 61.8 @ Tre Fiori 4 1564 34.03% Faetano 2 1565 34.38% 31.59%
17 1991-10-22 61.6 Cailungo 2 1460 22.18% @ Domagnano 1 1557 47.19% 30.64%
18 1992-03-01 61.4 Libertas 2 1497 26.82% @ Domagnano 1 1553 41.91% 31.27%
19 1991-11-19 61.2 Cailungo 2 1433 19.78% @ Faetano 1 1556 50.12% 30.10%
20 1991-11-19 61.2 @ Montevito 0 1542 28.49% Tre Fiori 0 1584 40.11% 31.41%
21 1991-11-12 61.1 @ Faetano 1 1557 50.87% Juvenes 1 1428 19.18% 29.95%
22 1992-03-01 61.1 @ Montevito 1 1545 47.74% Cailungo 1 1444 21.72% 30.55%
23 1992-03-15 60.8 Murata 2 1463 23.83% @ Faetano 1 1545 45.26% 30.91%
24 1991-11-05 60.6 @ Murata 4 1479 25.81% Montevito 2 1543 43.02% 31.17%
25 1992-03-01 60.6 @ Faetano 1 1541 48.43% Folgore Falciano 1 1433 21.14% 30.43%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-04-12 39.2 Tre Fiori 4 1571 54.20% @ Folgore Falciano 0 1412 16.68% 29.12%
2 1991-10-29 43.9 Murata 3 1462 33.47% @ Cailungo 0 1467 34.94% 31.58%
3 1992-04-26 44.3 Tre Fiori 3 1583 48.33% @ Cosmos 0 1477 21.22% 30.44%
4 1991-11-19 44.8 @ Cosmos 3 1488 35.23% Murata 0 1481 33.19% 31.58%
5 1991-11-19 45.0 @ Domagnano 6 1556 48.50% Folgore Falciano 1 1448 21.08% 30.41%
6 1992-04-05 45.6 Faetano 2 1531 43.32% @ Juvenes 0 1465 25.54% 31.14%
7 1991-10-15 46.2 Cosmos 2 1504 38.83% @ Folgore Falciano 0 1472 29.69% 31.48%
8 1992-03-15 46.2 @ Cailungo 4 1446 35.83% Folgore Falciano 1 1434 32.60% 31.57%
9 1991-10-29 46.3 @ Tre Fiori 2 1573 47.31% Libertas 0 1474 22.08% 30.62%
10 1992-04-12 46.3 @ Libertas 2 1480 35.50% Murata 0 1471 32.92% 31.58%
11 1991-11-05 46.4 @ Libertas 3 1466 29.57% Cosmos 0 1500 38.96% 31.47%
12 1992-03-08 46.7 Juvenes 3 1450 26.99% @ Libertas 0 1504 41.72% 31.29%
13 1992-03-22 46.8 Montevito 2 1523 40.29% @ Cosmos 0 1480 28.31% 31.39%
14 1991-12-03 47.0 Cailungo 1 1442 36.49% @ Juvenes 0 1426 31.95% 31.56%
15 1992-04-12 47.1 Domagnano 2 1565 44.94% @ Cosmos 0 1486 24.11% 30.95%
16 1991-10-08 47.4 Tre Fiori 2 1560 43.87% @ Libertas 0 1490 25.05% 31.08%
17 1991-11-12 47.4 @ Tre Fiori 1 1580 52.44% Cailungo 0 1437 17.98% 29.58%
18 1991-11-26 48.3 Faetano 3 1548 49.36% @ Folgore Falciano 1 1432 20.39% 30.26%
19 1991-10-29 49.0 @ Faetano 2 1556 40.67% Cosmos 0 1510 27.97% 31.37%
20 1992-03-08 49.1 Domagnano 4 1546 34.46% @ Montevito 0 1544 33.96% 31.59%
21 1992-03-08 49.6 Faetano 1 1540 44.03% @ Murata 0 1468 24.91% 31.06%
22 1991-10-22 49.8 @ Juvenes 1 1411 27.48% Folgore Falciano 0 1461 41.19% 31.33%
23 1991-10-29 49.9 Montevito 3 1536 45.23% @ Folgore Falciano 1 1454 23.86% 30.92%
24 1992-05-17 * 50.0 Libertas 3 1507 28.66% @ Montevito 0 1548 39.93% 31.42%
25 1991-11-05 50.3 Juvenes 5 1414 29.27% @ Cailungo 2 1451 39.27% 31.45%