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1992-93 Campionato Sammarinese Season

90 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Tre Fiori

26 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Cailungo

3.07 points above expected

22 points · 18.93 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Tre Penne

3.16 points below expected

10 points · 13.16 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tre Fiori 18 11 4 3 26 35 11 +24 23.36 +2.64
2 Domagnano 18 9 6 3 24 20 13 +7 21.60 +2.40
3 Libertas 18 9 4 5 22 42 24 +18 20.36 +1.64
4 Cailungo 18 8 6 4 22 27 21 +6 18.93 +3.07
5 Faetano 18 8 4 6 20 22 17 +5 21.10 -1.10
6 Montevito 18 6 7 5 19 25 23 +2 18.40 +0.60
7 Murata 18 3 10 5 16 13 21 -8 17.11 -1.11
8 Juvenes 18 5 3 10 13 18 22 -4 15.46 -2.46
9 Tre Penne 18 3 4 11 10 24 41 -17 13.16 -3.16
10 Virtus 18 2 4 12 8 16 49 -33 10.52 -2.52

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Cailungo 22 18.93 +3.07
2 Tre Fiori 26 23.36 +2.64
3 Domagnano 24 21.60 +2.40
4 Libertas 22 20.36 +1.64
5 Montevito 19 18.40 +0.60

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Tre Penne 10 13.16 -3.16
2 Virtus 8 10.52 -2.52
3 Juvenes 13 15.46 -2.46
4 Murata 16 17.11 -1.11
5 Faetano 20 21.10 -1.10

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Tre Fiori 1659 26 +30 8 6.5 +1.5
Domagnano 1591 24 +12 8 6.4 +1.6
Libertas 1597 22 -1 7 6.4 +0.6
Cailungo 1533 22 +0 6 5.8 +0.2
Faetano 1540 20 -26 3 5.3 -2.3
Montevito 1523 19 +8 6 5.3 +0.7
Murata 1452 16 -12 3 4.1 -1.1
Juvenes 1472 13 +21 5 4.1 +0.9
Tre Penne 1364 10 -41 0 3.7 -3.7
Virtus 1268 8 -9 2 2.5 -0.5

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI DOM FAE JUV LIB MON MUR TF TP VIR
Cailungo —
1-0-1
2.33
1-1-0
2.41
1-1-0
3.35
1-1-0
2.60
0-1-1
2.60
0-1-1
2.80
1-0-1
1.96
1-1-0
3.52
2-0-0
4.09
Domagnano
1-0-1
3.07
 —
0-0-2
2.91
1-1-0
3.60
2-0-0
2.80
1-1-0
2.90
0-2-0
3.54
1-1-0
2.35
2-0-0
4.03
1-1-0
4.34
Faetano
0-1-1
2.98
2-0-0
2.48
 —
1-0-1
3.45
1-0-1
2.68
0-1-1
3.20
1-0-1
3.21
1-0-1
2.20
0-2-0
3.77
2-0-0
4.29
Juvenes
0-1-1
2.05
0-1-1
1.81
1-0-1
1.95
 —
0-0-2
2.00
1-0-1
1.93
0-1-1
2.42
0-0-2
1.72
2-0-0
3.17
1-0-1
3.81
Libertas
0-1-1
2.79
0-0-2
2.59
1-0-1
2.71
2-0-0
3.40
 —
1-1-0
3.36
1-1-0
3.05
0-1-1
2.28
2-0-0
3.57
2-0-0
4.10
Montevito
1-1-0
2.80
0-1-1
2.50
1-1-0
2.20
1-0-1
3.48
0-1-1
2.04
 —
1-1-0
3.20
0-1-1
2.25
1-0-1
3.74
1-1-0
4.14
Murata
1-1-0
2.59
0-2-0
1.87
1-0-1
2.18
1-1-0
2.97
0-1-1
2.35
0-1-1
2.20
 —
0-1-1
1.68
0-1-1
3.27
0-2-0
3.84
Tre Fiori
1-0-1
3.44
0-1-1
3.04
1-0-1
3.20
2-0-0
3.69
1-1-0
3.11
1-1-0
3.15
1-1-0
3.74
 —
2-0-0
4.21
2-0-0
4.51
Tre Penne
0-1-1
1.89
0-0-2
1.41
0-2-0
1.65
0-0-2
2.22
0-0-2
1.84
1-0-1
1.68
1-1-0
2.12
0-0-2
1.25
 —
1-0-1
3.65
Virtus
0-0-2
1.35
0-1-1
1.14
0-0-2
1.18
1-0-1
1.61
0-0-2
1.36
0-1-1
1.31
0-2-0
1.59
0-0-2
0.99
1-0-1
1.76
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.33 +4.0
Allowed 0.76 -4.4
Differential 0.87 +3.4

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
013.33%10.00%4.44%1.11%0.56%1.67%31.11%
110.00%11.11%7.78%3.89%1.67%0.56%35.00%
24.44%7.78%2.22%1.67%0.56%1.11%17.78%
31.11%3.89%1.67%2.22%——8.89%
40.56%1.67%0.56%——0.56%3.33%
5+1.67%0.56%1.11%—0.56%—3.89%
Total31.11%35.00%17.78%8.89%3.33%3.89%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.34 1.34 +0.00
SD 1.45 1.45 1.96
CV 1.08 1.08 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
111.11%5.56%————16.67%
25.56%16.67%5.56%5.56%——33.33%
3—11.11%—11.11%——22.22%
4———————
5+———————
Total27.78%44.44%11.11%16.67%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.50 1.17 +0.33
SD 1.15 1.04 1.14
CV 0.77 0.89 —
Max 3 3 +2
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%5.56%5.56%———38.89%
111.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
25.56%22.22%————27.78%
35.56%—5.56%———11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total50.00%33.33%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 0.72 +0.39
SD 1.08 0.89 1.24
CV 0.97 1.24 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%16.67%5.56%———38.89%
111.11%5.56%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
25.56%11.11%————16.67%
3—5.56%————5.56%
4—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
5+———————
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.22 0.94 +0.28
SD 1.35 0.87 1.45
CV 1.11 0.92 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%33.33%————38.89%
15.56%5.56%16.67%—5.56%—33.33%
25.56%5.56%5.56%———16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total16.67%55.56%22.22%—5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 1.22 -0.22
SD 1.03 0.94 1.35
CV 1.03 0.77 —
Max 3 4 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%——5.56%——11.11%
111.11%11.11%11.11%5.56%5.56%—44.44%
2—5.56%————5.56%
3—11.11%—5.56%——16.67%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+11.11%5.56%————16.67%
Total27.78%38.89%11.11%16.67%5.56%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.33 1.33 +1.00
SD 2.17 1.24 2.87
CV 0.93 0.93 —
Max 7 4 +7
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
05.56%5.56%—5.56%——16.67%
111.11%27.78%11.11%———50.00%
25.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%——22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+——5.56%———5.56%
Total22.22%38.89%27.78%11.11%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.28 +0.11
SD 1.20 0.96 1.32
CV 0.86 0.75 —
Max 5 3 +3
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%——5.56%—33.33%
116.67%33.33%5.56%——5.56%61.11%
2———5.56%——5.56%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%5.56%5.56%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.17 -0.44
SD 0.57 1.47 1.42
CV 0.80 1.26 —
Max 2 5 +1
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%11.11%————27.78%
111.11%5.56%5.56%———22.22%
216.67%5.56%————22.22%
3——5.56%———5.56%
45.56%5.56%————11.11%
5+5.56%—5.56%———11.11%
Total55.56%27.78%16.67%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.94 0.61 +1.33
SD 1.95 0.78 1.94
CV 1.01 1.27 —
Max 6 2 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%5.56%——5.56%33.33%
15.56%5.56%22.22%5.56%——38.89%
2—————11.11%11.11%
35.56%——5.56%——11.11%
4———————
5+————5.56%—5.56%
Total22.22%16.67%27.78%11.11%5.56%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.33 2.28 -0.94
SD 1.71 2.08 2.31
CV 1.29 0.91 —
Max 7 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%—22.22%——11.11%44.44%
15.56%5.56%—16.67%5.56%—33.33%
2—5.56%5.56%—5.56%—16.67%
3———————
4—————5.56%5.56%
5+———————
Total16.67%11.11%27.78%16.67%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 2.72 -1.83
SD 1.08 2.19 2.12
CV 1.21 0.80 —
Max 4 7 +1
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Tre Fiori 1674 26 23.36 +2.64 84.0% 15 17 21 24 25 29 31
Domagnano 1614 24 21.60 +2.40 77.0% 14 16 19 21 24 28 30
Libertas 1580 22 20.36 +1.64 71.0% 13 15 18 21 23 25 27
Faetano 1540 20 21.10 -1.10 41.0% 14 15 19 21 24 27 28
Montevito 1523 19 18.40 +0.60 63.0% 9 13 16 18 21 23 28
Cailungo 1512 22 18.93 +3.07 89.0% 13 14 16 19 21 24 25
Juvenes 1472 13 15.46 -2.46 28.0% 8 10 13 15 17 21 25
Murata 1452 16 17.11 -1.11 42.0% 8 11 14 17 19 23 25
Tre Penne 1364 10 13.16 -3.16 18.0% 5 7 11 13 15 19 21
Virtus 1268 8 10.52 -2.52 23.0% 3 5 9 11 13 15 19

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+0.00%
Slight Edge
35.56%28.89%35.56%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 0.00 Elo pts.
132 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.16 goals
Neutral
-2+0.00+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
3.5
One-Team Race
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
45%
Tre Fiori, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.11/gm
Tight Race
00.140.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.65 * Some Luck: 2.65 to 3.97 * Lucky: 3.97 to 5.3 * Wild Swing: 5.3 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.21 * Close: 1.21 to 1.81 * Off: 1.81 to 2.41 * Way Off: 2.41 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.24 points
As Expected
03.318
Average Finish Error
Expected
0.40
Pinpoint
01.514
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
89.00%
Cailungo
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
18.00%
Tre Penne
050
Season Outliers
Expected
0 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.18
Balanced
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 116.40
1.69
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
67%
Even
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
91%
Even
50%90%100%
Close Games
Expected
68%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.60
Predictable
00.622
Matchup Imbalance
0.35
Very Even
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
0.48
Very Predictable
01.002
Repeatability
0.89
Near-Lock
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
21%
As Expected
0%23%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
17%
As Expected
0%20%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.19 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.19 to 0.28 * Above Noise: 0.28 to 0.37 * Well Above Noise: 0.37 and up.
Probability calibration
0.98
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.35
Very Underconfident
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.088
Well Within Noise
00.1860.5

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Domagnano 5
Cailungo 1

Second Round

Libertas 2
Cailungo 2

Quarterfinals

Domagnano 2
Libertas 0

Sim: 4.0%

Finals

Tre Fiori 2
Domagnano 0

Sim: 6.0%

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Tre Fiori45.00%28.00%9.00%7.00%3.00%4.00%3.00%1.00%——
Domagnano23.00%16.00%11.00%20.00%14.00%10.00%3.00%3.00%——
Libertas9.00%19.00%23.00%14.00%10.00%12.00%7.00%3.00%3.00%—
Cailungo2.00%8.00%16.00%19.00%15.00%16.00%16.00%6.00%2.00%—
Faetano15.00%18.00%17.00%18.00%12.00%7.00%9.00%4.00%——
Montevito2.00%6.00%16.00%9.00%21.00%18.00%10.00%14.00%2.00%2.00%
Murata2.00%5.00%6.00%8.00%10.00%13.00%24.00%18.00%9.00%5.00%
Juvenes2.00%—2.00%3.00%11.00%15.00%15.00%28.00%15.00%9.00%
Tre Penne———2.00%4.00%4.00%10.00%14.00%46.00%20.00%
Virtus—————1.00%3.00%9.00%23.00%64.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Domagnano 30.00% —
Faetano 32.00% —
Tre Fiori 11.00% —
Cailungo 53.00% 2.00%
Libertas 32.00% 3.00%
Montevito 63.00% 4.00%
Murata 65.00% 14.00%
Juvenes 69.00% 24.00%
Tre Penne 32.00% 66.00%
Virtus 13.00% 87.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoDomagnanoFaetanoJuvenesLibertasMontevitoMurataTre FioriTre Penne
Cailungo30.0%10.00%20.0%5.00%50.0%2.00%25.0%8.00%80.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%12.00%
Domagnano70.0%10.00%66.7%15.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%8.00%33.3%6.00%100.0%5.00%19.2%26.00%
Faetano80.0%5.00%33.3%15.00%66.7%3.00%43.8%16.00%57.1%7.00%100.0%2.00%23.1%13.00%100.0%2.00%
Juvenes50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%33.3%3.00%
Libertas75.0%8.00%50.0%8.00%56.2%16.00%50.0%6.00%100.0%6.00%54.5%11.00%
Montevito20.0%5.00%66.7%6.00%42.9%7.00%50.0%6.00%100.0%1.00%25.0%16.00%50.0%2.00%
Murata0.0%1.00%0.0%5.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%6.00%0.0%1.00%71.4%7.00%
Tre Fiori100.0%12.00%80.8%26.00%76.9%13.00%66.7%3.00%45.5%11.00%75.0%16.00%28.6%7.00%100.0%1.00%
Tre Penne0.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoDomagnanoFaetanoJuvenesLibertasMontevitoMurataTre FioriTre Penne
Cailungo0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%25.0%8.00%
Domagnano100.0%1.00%40.0%5.00%87.5%8.00%100.0%2.00%100.0%3.00%60.0%15.00%
Faetano0.0%1.00%60.0%5.00%100.0%2.00%25.0%4.00%29.4%17.00%
Juvenes0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%
Libertas12.5%8.00%0.0%2.00%100.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%100.0%1.00%44.4%18.00%0.0%1.00%
Montevito0.0%1.00%0.0%2.00%75.0%4.00%0.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%16.7%6.00%
Murata100.0%1.00%0.0%3.00%0.0%1.00%
Tre Fiori75.0%8.00%40.0%15.00%70.6%17.00%0.0%1.00%55.6%18.00%83.3%6.00%
Tre Penne100.0%1.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1992-10-01 Domagnano W 2-054.5 1538 1567 30.63% 30.42% 38.96%-0.23 +18.0 2
1992-10-01 @ Faetano L 0-254.5 1567 1538 38.96% 30.42% 30.63%+0.23 -18.0 0
1992-10-01 Cailungo W 1-052.2 1540 1498 40.58% 30.36% 29.06%+0.32 +7.7 2
1992-10-01 @ Montevito L 0-152.2 1498 1540 29.06% 30.36% 40.58%-0.32 -7.7 0
1992-10-01 Virtus L 1-256.5 1490 1350 52.36% 29.19% 18.45%+1.06 -11.5 0
1992-10-01 @ Juvenes W 2-156.5 1350 1490 18.45% 29.19% 52.36%-1.06 +11.5 2
1992-10-01 Tre Fiori L 1-453.4 1529 1579 27.94% 30.30% 41.76%-0.38 -17.4 0
1992-10-01 @ Libertas W 4-153.4 1579 1529 41.76% 30.30% 27.94%+0.38 +17.4 2
1992-10-01 Murata D 1-157.6 1417 1492 25.03% 30.10% 44.87%-0.57 +1.0 1
1992-10-01 @ Tre Penne D 1-157.6 1492 1417 44.87% 30.10% 25.03%+0.57 -1.0 1
1992-10-08 Domagnano W 3-158.0 1491 1549 26.93% 30.24% 42.82%-0.44 +16.8 2
1992-10-08 @ Cailungo L 1-358.0 1549 1491 42.82% 30.24% 26.93%+0.44 -16.8 0
1992-10-08 Tre Penne W 5-248.1 1548 1418 51.35% 29.35% 19.30%+0.99 +11.3 4
1992-10-08 @ Montevito L 2-548.1 1418 1548 19.30% 29.35% 51.35%-0.99 -11.3 1
1992-10-08 Faetano W 1-056.8 1512 1556 28.75% 30.34% 40.90%-0.33 +9.9 2
1992-10-08 @ Libertas L 0-156.8 1556 1512 40.90% 30.34% 28.75%+0.33 -9.9 2
1992-10-08 Juvenes W 1-050.7 1597 1478 50.09% 29.54% 20.37%+0.90 +5.9 4
1992-10-08 @ Tre Fiori L 0-150.7 1478 1597 20.37% 29.54% 50.09%-0.90 -5.9 0
1992-10-08 Murata D 1-156.1 1361 1491 19.38% 29.37% 51.25%-0.98 +1.6 3
1992-10-08 @ Virtus D 1-156.1 1491 1361 51.25% 29.37% 19.38%+0.98 -1.6 2
1992-10-15 Tre Penne W 2-149.9 1508 1406 48.05% 29.79% 22.15%+0.77 +5.9 4
1992-10-15 @ Cailungo L 1-249.9 1406 1508 22.15% 29.79% 48.05%-0.77 -5.9 1
1992-10-15 Libertas W 3-049.0 1533 1521 36.37% 30.47% 33.17%+0.09 +23.3 2
1992-10-15 @ Domagnano L 0-349.0 1521 1533 33.17% 30.47% 36.37%-0.09 -23.3 2
1992-10-15 Tre Fiori W 1-059.9 1546 1603 27.14% 30.26% 42.60%-0.43 +10.2 4
1992-10-15 @ Faetano L 0-159.9 1603 1546 42.60% 30.26% 27.14%+0.43 -10.2 4
1992-10-15 Virtus D 2-263.3 1559 1363 57.92% 28.00% 14.08%+1.49 -1.7 5
1992-10-15 @ Montevito D 2-263.3 1363 1559 14.08% 28.00% 57.92%-1.49 +1.7 4
1992-10-15 Murata L 0-150.4 1472 1489 32.38% 30.46% 37.16%-0.13 -8.4 0
1992-10-15 @ Juvenes W 1-050.4 1489 1472 37.16% 30.46% 32.38%+0.13 +8.4 4
1992-10-22 Tre Fiori W 1-059.1 1556 1593 29.74% 30.39% 39.88%-0.28 +9.7 4
1992-10-22 @ Domagnano L 0-159.1 1593 1556 39.88% 30.39% 29.74%+0.28 -9.7 4
1992-10-22 Montevito L 0-149.6 1464 1558 22.92% 29.89% 47.19%-0.71 -6.5 0
1992-10-22 @ Juvenes W 1-049.6 1558 1464 47.19% 29.89% 22.92%+0.71 +6.5 7
1992-10-22 Faetano L 1-256.6 1497 1556 26.94% 30.24% 42.81%-0.44 -6.9 4
1992-10-22 @ Murata W 2-156.6 1556 1497 42.81% 30.24% 26.94%+0.44 +6.9 6
1992-10-22 Cailungo D 3-366.0 1401 1513 20.95% 29.63% 49.43%-0.86 +0.9 2
1992-10-22 @ Tre Penne D 3-366.0 1513 1401 49.43% 29.63% 20.95%+0.86 -0.9 5
1992-10-22 Libertas L 0-738.0 1365 1498 19.00% 29.30% 51.71%-1.01 -33.8 4
1992-10-22 @ Virtus W 7-038.0 1498 1365 51.71% 29.30% 19.00%+1.01 +33.8 4
1992-10-29 Murata L 0-153.6 1513 1490 37.89% 30.44% 31.66%+0.17 -9.4 5
1992-10-29 @ Cailungo W 1-053.6 1490 1513 31.66% 30.44% 37.89%-0.17 +9.3 6
1992-10-29 Montevito D 0-061.3 1566 1564 35.01% 30.48% 34.52%+0.01 -0.0 5
1992-10-29 @ Domagnano D 0-061.3 1564 1566 34.52% 30.48% 35.01%-0.01 +0.0 8
1992-10-29 Libertas D 0-060.9 1583 1532 41.80% 30.30% 27.90%+0.39 -0.7 5
1992-10-29 @ Tre Fiori D 0-060.9 1532 1583 27.90% 30.30% 41.80%-0.39 +0.7 5
1992-10-29 Juvenes L 0-145.4 1401 1457 27.28% 30.27% 42.46%-0.42 -7.4 2
1992-10-29 @ Tre Penne W 1-045.4 1457 1401 42.46% 30.27% 27.28%+0.42 +7.4 2
1992-10-29 Faetano L 1-440.0 1331 1563 11.89% 27.09% 61.02%-1.76 -8.5 4
1992-10-29 @ Virtus W 4-140.0 1563 1331 61.02% 27.09% 11.89%+1.76 +8.4 8
1992-11-05 Virtus D 0-053.9 1566 1322 61.94% 26.78% 11.28%+1.84 -3.1 6
1992-11-05 @ Domagnano D 0-053.9 1322 1566 11.28% 26.78% 61.94%-1.84 +3.1 5
1992-11-05 Juvenes W 4-148.8 1533 1465 44.01% 30.16% 25.82%+0.52 +16.4 7
1992-11-05 @ Libertas L 1-448.8 1465 1533 25.82% 30.16% 44.01%-0.52 -16.4 2
1992-11-05 Cailungo D 0-056.9 1500 1503 34.28% 30.48% 35.25%-0.03 +0.0 7
1992-11-05 @ Murata D 0-056.9 1503 1500 35.25% 30.48% 34.28%+0.03 -0.0 6
1992-11-05 Montevito W 3-265.5 1582 1564 37.32% 30.45% 32.22%+0.14 +7.5 7
1992-11-05 @ Tre Fiori L 2-365.5 1564 1582 32.22% 30.45% 37.32%-0.14 -7.5 8
1992-11-05 Faetano D 0-056.1 1394 1571 15.41% 28.44% 56.15%-1.34 +2.4 3
1992-11-05 @ Tre Penne D 0-056.1 1571 1394 56.15% 28.44% 15.41%+1.34 -2.4 9
1992-11-12 Murata L 0-157.8 1569 1500 44.16% 30.15% 25.69%+0.52 -10.5 9
1992-11-12 @ Faetano W 1-057.8 1500 1569 25.69% 30.15% 44.16%-0.52 +10.5 9
1992-11-12 Juvenes L 1-261.2 1557 1448 48.90% 29.69% 21.41%+0.82 -10.8 8
1992-11-12 @ Montevito W 2-161.2 1448 1557 21.41% 29.69% 48.90%-0.82 +10.8 4
1992-11-12 Domagnano L 1-260.4 1549 1563 32.84% 30.46% 36.70%-0.10 -8.0 7
1992-11-12 @ Libertas W 2-160.4 1563 1549 36.70% 30.46% 32.84%+0.10 +8.0 8
1992-11-12 Tre Penne W 2-149.7 1590 1396 57.63% 28.08% 14.30%+1.46 +4.1 9
1992-11-12 @ Tre Fiori L 1-249.7 1396 1590 14.30% 28.08% 57.63%-1.46 -4.1 3
1992-11-12 Cailungo L 1-342.0 1325 1503 15.39% 28.43% 56.19%-1.35 -7.6 5
1992-11-12 @ Virtus W 3-142.0 1503 1325 56.19% 28.43% 15.39%+1.35 +7.6 8
1992-11-19 Cailungo L 0-157.0 1558 1511 41.38% 30.32% 28.30%+0.36 -10.0 9
1992-11-19 @ Faetano W 1-057.0 1511 1558 28.30% 30.32% 41.38%-0.36 +10.0 10
1992-11-19 Domagnano D 0-058.1 1459 1571 21.09% 29.65% 49.26%-0.84 +1.6 5
1992-11-19 @ Juvenes D 0-058.1 1571 1459 49.26% 29.65% 21.09%+0.84 -1.6 9
1992-11-19 Libertas D 1-162.7 1510 1541 30.51% 30.41% 39.08%-0.23 +0.4 10
1992-11-19 @ Murata D 1-162.7 1541 1510 39.08% 30.41% 30.51%+0.23 -0.4 8
1992-11-19 Virtus W 6-035.1 1594 1318 64.47% 25.84% 9.69%+2.09 +15.6 11
1992-11-19 @ Tre Fiori L 0-635.1 1318 1594 9.69% 25.84% 64.47%-2.09 -15.6 5
1992-11-19 Montevito W 3-050.4 1392 1546 17.27% 28.93% 53.80%-1.16 +34.1 5
1992-11-19 @ Tre Penne L 0-350.4 1546 1392 53.80% 28.93% 17.27%+1.16 -34.1 8
1992-11-26 Libertas W 2-160.1 1521 1541 31.96% 30.45% 37.59%-0.15 +8.8 12
1992-11-26 @ Cailungo L 1-260.1 1541 1521 37.59% 30.45% 31.96%+0.15 -8.8 8
1992-11-26 Faetano L 0-157.5 1569 1548 37.68% 30.45% 31.87%+0.16 -9.3 9
1992-11-26 @ Domagnano W 1-057.5 1548 1569 31.87% 30.45% 37.68%-0.16 +9.3 11
1992-11-26 Tre Fiori D 1-165.2 1512 1609 22.52% 29.84% 47.65%-0.74 +1.2 9
1992-11-26 @ Montevito D 1-165.2 1609 1512 47.65% 29.84% 22.52%+0.74 -1.2 12
1992-11-26 Juvenes D 1-159.8 1511 1461 41.70% 30.31% 27.99%+0.38 -0.6 11
1992-11-26 @ Murata D 1-159.8 1461 1511 27.99% 30.31% 41.70%-0.38 +0.6 6
1992-11-26 Virtus W 7-443.8 1426 1302 50.69% 29.45% 19.86%+0.94 +10.2 7
1992-11-26 @ Tre Penne L 4-743.8 1302 1426 19.86% 29.45% 50.69%-0.94 -10.2 5
1992-12-03 Tre Penne D 0-056.9 1558 1437 50.36% 29.50% 20.14%+0.92 -1.7 12
1992-12-03 @ Faetano D 0-056.9 1437 1558 20.14% 29.50% 50.36%-0.92 +1.7 8
1992-12-03 Domagnano L 0-153.2 1513 1560 28.42% 30.33% 41.25%-0.35 -7.6 9
1992-12-03 @ Montevito W 1-053.2 1560 1513 41.25% 30.33% 28.42%+0.35 +7.6 11
1992-12-03 Cailungo D 3-371.2 1532 1530 35.11% 30.48% 34.42%+0.02 -0.0 9
1992-12-03 @ Libertas D 3-371.2 1530 1532 34.42% 30.48% 35.11%-0.02 +0.0 13
1992-12-03 Murata W 4-046.9 1608 1510 47.68% 29.83% 22.48%+0.74 +22.8 14
1992-12-03 @ Tre Fiori L 0-446.9 1510 1608 22.48% 29.83% 47.68%-0.74 -22.8 11
1992-12-03 Juvenes L 1-340.7 1292 1461 16.02% 28.61% 55.37%-1.28 -7.9 5
1992-12-03 @ Virtus W 3-140.7 1461 1292 55.37% 28.61% 16.02%+1.28 +7.9 8
1992-12-10 Virtus W 4-243.5 1556 1284 64.18% 25.96% 9.87%+2.06 +4.5 14
1992-12-10 @ Faetano L 2-443.5 1284 1556 9.87% 25.96% 64.18%-2.06 -4.4 5
1992-12-10 Domagnano D 1-162.9 1487 1567 24.43% 30.05% 45.52%-0.61 +1.0 12
1992-12-10 @ Murata D 1-162.9 1567 1487 45.52% 30.05% 24.43%+0.61 -1.0 12
1992-12-10 Cailungo L 1-266.2 1631 1530 48.09% 29.79% 22.12%+0.77 -10.6 14
1992-12-10 @ Tre Fiori W 2-166.2 1530 1631 22.12% 29.79% 48.09%-0.77 +10.6 15
1992-12-10 Libertas L 1-349.3 1438 1532 22.93% 29.89% 47.18%-0.71 -10.6 8
1992-12-10 @ Tre Penne W 3-149.3 1532 1438 47.18% 29.89% 22.93%+0.71 +10.6 11
1993-03-01 Faetano D 0-060.4 1540 1561 31.91% 30.45% 37.65%-0.15 +0.3 16
1993-03-01 @ Cailungo D 0-060.4 1561 1540 37.65% 30.45% 31.91%+0.15 -0.3 15
1993-03-01 Tre Fiori L 0-150.1 1469 1620 17.48% 28.98% 53.55%-1.14 -5.2 8
1993-03-01 @ Juvenes W 1-050.1 1620 1469 53.55% 28.98% 17.48%+1.14 +5.2 16
1993-03-01 Murata W 5-149.0 1542 1488 42.23% 30.28% 27.49%+0.41 +22.2 13
1993-03-01 @ Libertas L 1-549.0 1488 1542 27.49% 30.28% 42.23%-0.41 -22.2 12
1993-03-01 Domagnano L 0-235.2 1280 1566 9.22% 25.51% 65.27%-2.17 -5.3 5
1993-03-01 @ Virtus W 2-035.2 1566 1280 65.27% 25.51% 9.22%+2.17 +5.3 14
1993-03-08 Cailungo W 3-263.9 1572 1540 39.14% 30.41% 30.44%+0.24 +7.2 16
1993-03-08 @ Domagnano L 2-363.9 1540 1572 30.44% 30.41% 39.14%-0.24 -7.2 16
1993-03-08 Faetano L 1-254.1 1464 1560 22.66% 29.86% 47.49%-0.73 -6.0 8
1993-03-08 @ Juvenes W 2-154.1 1560 1464 47.49% 29.86% 22.66%+0.73 +6.0 17
1993-03-08 Tre Penne W 7-042.3 1565 1428 52.07% 29.24% 18.69%+1.04 +33.3 15
1993-03-08 @ Libertas L 0-742.3 1428 1565 18.69% 29.24% 52.07%-1.04 -33.3 8
1993-03-08 Virtus D 0-050.0 1466 1274 57.51% 28.11% 14.39%+1.45 -2.5 13
1993-03-08 @ Murata D 0-050.0 1274 1466 14.39% 28.11% 57.51%-1.45 +2.5 6
1993-03-15 Juvenes W 1-049.1 1533 1458 44.95% 30.09% 24.96%+0.57 +6.9 18
1993-03-15 @ Cailungo L 0-149.1 1458 1533 24.96% 30.09% 44.95%-0.57 -6.9 8
1993-03-15 Libertas L 1-257.0 1505 1598 23.04% 29.90% 47.06%-0.70 -6.1 9
1993-03-15 @ Montevito W 2-157.0 1598 1505 47.06% 29.90% 23.04%+0.70 +6.1 17
1993-03-15 Tre Penne L 0-150.4 1464 1394 44.18% 30.15% 25.67%+0.52 -10.5 13
1993-03-15 @ Murata W 1-050.4 1394 1464 25.67% 30.15% 44.18%-0.52 +10.5 10
1993-03-15 Tre Fiori L 0-235.6 1277 1625 6.94% 23.51% 69.54%-2.64 -3.9 6
1993-03-15 @ Virtus W 2-035.6 1625 1277 69.54% 23.51% 6.94%+2.64 +3.9 18
1993-03-22 Tre Fiori L 0-251.6 1540 1629 23.42% 29.94% 46.64%-0.68 -12.4 18
1993-03-22 @ Cailungo W 2-051.6 1629 1540 46.64% 29.94% 23.42%+0.68 +12.4 20
1993-03-22 Juvenes W 2-153.3 1579 1451 51.08% 29.39% 19.52%+0.97 +5.4 18
1993-03-22 @ Domagnano L 1-253.3 1451 1579 19.52% 29.39% 51.08%-0.97 -5.4 8
1993-03-22 Faetano W 2-162.1 1499 1566 25.93% 30.17% 43.90%-0.51 +9.9 11
1993-03-22 @ Montevito L 1-262.1 1566 1499 43.90% 30.17% 25.93%+0.51 -9.9 17
1993-03-22 Tre Penne W 1-048.9 1273 1405 19.14% 29.32% 51.53%-1.00 +12.0 8
1993-03-22 @ Virtus L 0-148.9 1405 1273 51.53% 29.32% 19.14%+1.00 -12.0 10
1993-03-29 Virtus W 2-035.3 1528 1285 61.90% 26.80% 11.30%+1.84 +6.6 20
1993-03-29 @ Cailungo L 0-235.3 1285 1528 11.30% 26.80% 61.90%-1.84 -6.6 8
1993-03-29 Tre Penne W 2-149.4 1584 1393 57.46% 28.12% 14.42%+1.45 +4.1 20
1993-03-29 @ Domagnano L 1-249.4 1393 1584 14.42% 28.12% 57.46%-1.45 -4.1 10
1993-03-29 Libertas W 3-161.5 1556 1604 28.30% 30.32% 41.38%-0.36 +16.3 19
1993-03-29 @ Faetano L 1-361.5 1604 1556 41.38% 30.32% 28.30%+0.36 -16.3 17
1993-03-29 Montevito L 2-357.6 1453 1509 27.27% 30.26% 42.47%-0.42 -6.6 13
1993-03-29 @ Murata W 3-257.6 1509 1453 42.47% 30.26% 27.27%+0.42 +6.6 13
1993-04-05 Montevito D 1-164.0 1573 1516 42.60% 30.26% 27.14%+0.43 -0.7 20
1993-04-05 @ Faetano D 1-164.0 1516 1573 27.14% 30.26% 42.60%-0.43 +0.7 14
1993-04-05 Cailungo D 2-264.8 1446 1534 23.46% 29.95% 46.59%-0.67 +0.8 9
1993-04-05 @ Juvenes D 2-264.8 1534 1446 46.59% 29.95% 23.46%+0.67 -0.8 21
1993-04-05 Virtus W 3-139.9 1588 1278 66.90% 24.80% 8.30%+2.34 +4.1 19
1993-04-05 @ Libertas L 1-339.9 1278 1588 8.30% 24.80% 66.90%-2.34 -4.1 8
1993-04-05 Tre Fiori D 0-060.7 1446 1642 14.15% 28.03% 57.82%-1.48 +2.6 14
1993-04-05 @ Murata D 0-060.7 1642 1446 57.82% 28.03% 14.15%+1.48 -2.6 21
1993-04-05 Domagnano L 1-249.2 1389 1588 13.87% 27.92% 58.21%-1.51 -4.0 10
1993-04-05 @ Tre Penne W 2-149.2 1588 1389 58.21% 27.92% 13.87%+1.51 +4.0 22
1993-04-12 Murata D 1-159.6 1516 1449 43.93% 30.17% 25.90%+0.51 -0.9 15
1993-04-12 @ Montevito D 1-159.6 1449 1516 25.90% 30.17% 43.93%-0.51 +0.9 15
1993-04-12 Tre Penne W 2-041.4 1447 1385 43.21% 30.22% 26.57%+0.47 +13.7 11
1993-04-12 @ Juvenes L 0-241.4 1385 1447 26.57% 30.22% 43.21%-0.47 -13.7 10
1993-04-12 Domagnano D 0-063.8 1639 1592 41.27% 30.33% 28.40%+0.36 -0.7 22
1993-04-12 @ Tre Fiori D 0-063.8 1592 1639 28.40% 30.33% 41.27%-0.36 +0.7 23
1993-04-19 Murata D 0-058.8 1593 1450 52.72% 29.13% 18.16%+1.08 -2.0 24
1993-04-19 @ Domagnano D 0-058.8 1450 1593 18.16% 29.13% 52.72%-1.08 +2.0 16
1993-04-19 Montevito D 1-164.7 1592 1516 45.07% 30.08% 24.85%+0.58 -1.0 20
1993-04-19 @ Libertas D 1-164.7 1516 1592 24.85% 30.08% 45.07%-0.58 +1.0 16
1993-04-19 Faetano W 2-053.4 1638 1572 43.83% 30.18% 25.99%+0.50 +13.5 24
1993-04-19 @ Tre Fiori L 0-253.4 1572 1638 25.99% 30.18% 43.83%-0.50 -13.4 20
1993-04-26 Montevito D 1-162.6 1534 1517 37.18% 30.46% 32.36%+0.13 -0.2 22
1993-04-26 @ Cailungo D 1-162.6 1517 1534 32.36% 30.46% 37.18%-0.13 +0.2 17
1993-04-26 Juvenes L 1-358.5 1559 1460 47.74% 29.83% 22.43%+0.75 -18.3 20
1993-04-26 @ Faetano W 3-158.5 1460 1559 22.43% 29.83% 47.74%-0.75 +18.3 13
1993-04-26 Tre Fiori L 2-643.9 1371 1652 9.47% 25.69% 64.84%-2.13 -7.4 10
1993-04-26 @ Tre Penne W 6-243.9 1652 1371 64.84% 25.69% 9.47%+2.13 +7.4 26
1993-05-03 Libertas L 0-150.7 1478 1591 20.99% 29.63% 49.37%-0.85 -6.0 13
1993-05-03 @ Juvenes W 1-050.7 1591 1478 49.37% 29.63% 20.99%+0.85 +6.0 22
1993-05-03 Montevito L 0-234.8 1274 1517 11.32% 26.81% 61.88%-1.84 -6.6 8
1993-05-03 @ Virtus W 2-034.8 1517 1274 61.88% 26.81% 11.32%+1.84 +6.6 19

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1993-05-10 Cailungo W 5-152.1 1591 1533 42.69% 30.25% 27.06%+0.44 +21.9 1-0
1993-05-10 @ Domagnano L 1-552.1 1533 1591 27.06% 30.25% 42.69%-0.44 -21.9 0-1
1993-05-17 Cailungo D 2-269.4 1597 1511 46.21% 29.98% 23.81%+0.65 -0.8 0-0-1
1993-05-17 @ Libertas D 2-269.4 1511 1597 23.81% 29.98% 46.21%-0.65 +0.8 0-1-1
1993-05-24 Libertas W 2-055.4 1613 1596 37.14% 30.46% 32.40%+0.13 +15.8 2-0
1993-05-24 @ Domagnano L 0-255.4 1596 1613 32.40% 30.46% 37.14%-0.13 -15.8 0-1-1
1993-06-07 Domagnano W 2-056.2 1659 1629 39.07% 30.41% 30.52%+0.23 +15.1 1-0
1993-06-07 @ Tre Fiori L 0-256.2 1629 1659 30.52% 30.41% 39.07%-0.23 -15.1 2-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1992-11-19 17.27% @ Tre Penne 1392 3 Montevito 1546 0
2 1992-10-01 18.45% Virtus 1350 2 @ Juvenes 1490 1
3 1993-03-22 19.14% @ Virtus 1273 1 Tre Penne 1405 0
4 1992-11-12 21.41% Juvenes 1448 2 @ Montevito 1557 1
5 1992-12-10 22.12% Cailungo 1530 2 @ Tre Fiori 1631 1
6 1993-04-26 22.43% Juvenes 1460 3 @ Faetano 1559 1
7 1993-03-15 25.67% Tre Penne 1394 1 @ Murata 1464 0
8 1992-11-12 25.69% Murata 1500 1 @ Faetano 1569 0
9 1993-03-22 25.93% @ Montevito 1499 2 Faetano 1566 1
10 1992-10-08 26.93% @ Cailungo 1491 3 Domagnano 1549 1
11 1992-10-15 27.14% @ Faetano 1546 1 Tre Fiori 1603 0
12 1992-11-19 28.30% Cailungo 1511 1 @ Faetano 1558 0
13 1993-03-29 28.30% @ Faetano 1556 3 Libertas 1604 1
14 1992-10-08 28.75% @ Libertas 1512 1 Faetano 1556 0
15 1992-10-22 29.74% @ Domagnano 1556 1 Tre Fiori 1593 0
16 1992-10-01 30.63% @ Faetano 1538 2 Domagnano 1567 0
17 1992-10-29 31.66% Murata 1490 1 @ Cailungo 1513 0
18 1992-11-26 31.87% Faetano 1548 1 @ Domagnano 1569 0
19 1992-11-26 31.96% @ Cailungo 1521 2 Libertas 1541 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-11-19 34.08 @ Tre Penne 3 1392 17.27% Montevito 0 1546 53.80% 28.93%
2 1992-10-22 33.77 Libertas 7 1498 51.71% @ Virtus 0 1365 19.00% 29.30%
3 1993-03-08 33.32 @ Libertas 7 1565 52.07% Tre Penne 0 1428 18.69% 29.24%
4 1992-10-15 23.30 @ Domagnano 3 1533 36.37% Libertas 0 1521 33.17% 30.47%
5 1992-12-03 22.83 @ Tre Fiori 4 1608 47.68% Murata 0 1510 22.48% 29.83%
6 1993-03-01 22.17 @ Libertas 5 1542 42.23% Murata 1 1488 27.49% 30.28%
7 1993-05-10 * 21.91 @ Domagnano 5 1591 42.69% Cailungo 1 1533 27.06% 30.25%
8 1993-04-26 18.32 Juvenes 3 1460 22.43% @ Faetano 1 1559 47.74% 29.83%
9 1992-10-01 18.00 @ Faetano 2 1538 30.63% Domagnano 0 1567 38.96% 30.42%
10 1992-10-01 17.38 Tre Fiori 4 1579 41.76% @ Libertas 1 1529 27.94% 30.30%
11 1992-10-08 16.77 @ Cailungo 3 1491 26.93% Domagnano 1 1549 42.82% 30.24%
12 1992-11-05 16.38 @ Libertas 4 1533 44.01% Juvenes 1 1465 25.82% 30.16%
13 1993-03-29 16.32 @ Faetano 3 1556 28.30% Libertas 1 1604 41.38% 30.32%
14 1993-05-24 * 15.79 @ Domagnano 2 1613 37.14% Libertas 0 1596 32.40% 30.46%
15 1992-11-19 15.64 @ Tre Fiori 6 1594 64.47% Virtus 0 1318 9.69% 25.84%
16 1993-06-07 * 15.13 @ Tre Fiori 2 1659 39.07% Domagnano 0 1629 30.52% 30.41%
17 1993-04-12 13.67 @ Juvenes 2 1447 43.21% Tre Penne 0 1385 26.57% 30.22%
18 1993-04-19 13.45 @ Tre Fiori 2 1638 43.83% Faetano 0 1572 25.99% 30.18%
19 1993-03-22 12.42 Tre Fiori 2 1629 46.64% @ Cailungo 0 1540 23.42% 29.94%
20 1993-03-22 11.98 @ Virtus 1 1273 19.14% Tre Penne 0 1405 51.53% 29.32%
21 1992-10-01 11.46 Virtus 2 1350 18.45% @ Juvenes 1 1490 52.36% 29.19%
22 1992-10-08 11.29 @ Montevito 5 1548 51.35% Tre Penne 2 1418 19.30% 29.35%
23 1992-11-12 10.80 Juvenes 2 1448 21.41% @ Montevito 1 1557 48.90% 29.69%
24 1992-12-10 10.65 Cailungo 2 1530 22.12% @ Tre Fiori 1 1631 48.09% 29.79%
25 1992-12-10 10.59 Libertas 3 1532 47.18% @ Tre Penne 1 1438 22.93% 29.89%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1992-12-03 71.2 @ Libertas 3 1532 35.11% Cailungo 3 1530 34.42% 30.48%
2 1993-05-17 * 69.4 @ Libertas 2 1597 46.21% Cailungo 2 1511 23.81% 29.98%
3 1992-12-10 66.2 Cailungo 2 1530 22.12% @ Tre Fiori 1 1631 48.09% 29.79%
4 1992-10-22 66.0 @ Tre Penne 3 1401 20.95% Cailungo 3 1513 49.43% 29.63%
5 1992-11-05 65.5 @ Tre Fiori 3 1582 37.32% Montevito 2 1564 32.22% 30.45%
6 1992-11-26 65.2 @ Montevito 1 1512 22.52% Tre Fiori 1 1609 47.65% 29.84%
7 1993-04-05 64.8 @ Juvenes 2 1446 23.46% Cailungo 2 1534 46.59% 29.95%
8 1993-04-19 64.7 @ Libertas 1 1592 45.07% Montevito 1 1516 24.85% 30.08%
9 1993-04-05 64.0 @ Faetano 1 1573 42.60% Montevito 1 1516 27.14% 30.26%
10 1993-03-08 63.9 @ Domagnano 3 1572 39.14% Cailungo 2 1540 30.44% 30.41%
11 1993-04-12 63.8 @ Tre Fiori 0 1639 41.27% Domagnano 0 1592 28.40% 30.33%
12 1992-10-15 63.3 @ Montevito 2 1559 57.92% Virtus 2 1363 14.08% 28.00%
13 1992-12-10 62.9 @ Murata 1 1487 24.43% Domagnano 1 1567 45.52% 30.05%
14 1992-11-19 62.7 @ Murata 1 1510 30.51% Libertas 1 1541 39.08% 30.41%
15 1993-04-26 62.6 @ Cailungo 1 1534 37.18% Montevito 1 1517 32.36% 30.46%
16 1993-03-22 62.1 @ Montevito 2 1499 25.93% Faetano 1 1566 43.90% 30.17%
17 1993-03-29 61.5 @ Faetano 3 1556 28.30% Libertas 1 1604 41.38% 30.32%
18 1992-10-29 61.3 @ Domagnano 0 1566 35.01% Montevito 0 1564 34.52% 30.48%
19 1992-11-12 61.2 Juvenes 2 1448 21.41% @ Montevito 1 1557 48.90% 29.69%
20 1992-10-29 60.9 @ Tre Fiori 0 1583 41.80% Libertas 0 1532 27.90% 30.30%
21 1993-04-05 60.7 @ Murata 0 1446 14.15% Tre Fiori 0 1642 57.82% 28.03%
22 1992-11-12 60.4 Domagnano 2 1563 36.70% @ Libertas 1 1549 32.84% 30.46%
23 1993-03-01 60.4 @ Cailungo 0 1540 31.91% Faetano 0 1561 37.65% 30.45%
24 1992-11-26 60.1 @ Cailungo 2 1521 31.96% Libertas 1 1541 37.59% 30.45%
25 1992-10-15 59.9 @ Faetano 1 1546 27.14% Tre Fiori 0 1603 42.60% 30.26%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-05-03 34.8 Montevito 2 1517 61.88% @ Virtus 0 1274 11.32% 26.81%
2 1992-11-19 35.1 @ Tre Fiori 6 1594 64.47% Virtus 0 1318 9.69% 25.84%
3 1993-03-01 35.2 Domagnano 2 1566 65.27% @ Virtus 0 1280 9.22% 25.51%
4 1993-03-29 35.3 @ Cailungo 2 1528 61.90% Virtus 0 1285 11.30% 26.80%
5 1993-03-15 35.6 Tre Fiori 2 1625 69.54% @ Virtus 0 1277 6.94% 23.51%
6 1992-10-22 38.0 Libertas 7 1498 51.71% @ Virtus 0 1365 19.00% 29.30%
7 1993-04-05 39.9 @ Libertas 3 1588 66.90% Virtus 1 1278 8.30% 24.80%
8 1992-10-29 40.0 Faetano 4 1563 61.02% @ Virtus 1 1331 11.89% 27.09%
9 1992-12-03 40.7 Juvenes 3 1461 55.37% @ Virtus 1 1292 16.02% 28.61%
10 1993-04-12 41.4 @ Juvenes 2 1447 43.21% Tre Penne 0 1385 26.57% 30.22%
11 1992-11-12 42.0 Cailungo 3 1503 56.19% @ Virtus 1 1325 15.39% 28.43%
12 1993-03-08 42.3 @ Libertas 7 1565 52.07% Tre Penne 0 1428 18.69% 29.24%
13 1992-12-10 43.5 @ Faetano 4 1556 64.18% Virtus 2 1284 9.87% 25.96%
14 1992-11-26 43.8 @ Tre Penne 7 1426 50.69% Virtus 4 1302 19.86% 29.45%
15 1993-04-26 43.9 Tre Fiori 6 1652 64.84% @ Tre Penne 2 1371 9.47% 25.69%
16 1992-10-29 45.4 Juvenes 1 1457 42.46% @ Tre Penne 0 1401 27.28% 30.27%
17 1992-12-03 46.9 @ Tre Fiori 4 1608 47.68% Murata 0 1510 22.48% 29.83%
18 1992-10-08 48.1 @ Montevito 5 1548 51.35% Tre Penne 2 1418 19.30% 29.35%
19 1992-11-05 48.8 @ Libertas 4 1533 44.01% Juvenes 1 1465 25.82% 30.16%
20 1993-03-22 48.9 @ Virtus 1 1273 19.14% Tre Penne 0 1405 51.53% 29.32%
21 1992-10-15 49.0 @ Domagnano 3 1533 36.37% Libertas 0 1521 33.17% 30.47%
22 1993-03-01 49.0 @ Libertas 5 1542 42.23% Murata 1 1488 27.49% 30.28%
23 1993-03-15 49.1 @ Cailungo 1 1533 44.95% Juvenes 0 1458 24.96% 30.09%
24 1993-04-05 49.2 Domagnano 2 1588 58.21% @ Tre Penne 1 1389 13.87% 27.92%
25 1992-12-10 49.3 Libertas 3 1532 47.18% @ Tre Penne 1 1438 22.93% 29.89%