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1993-94 Campionato Sammarinese Season

90 games · 4 promotion-playoff teams

Final

Champion

Tre Fiori

27 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Faetano

5.10 points above expected

24 points · 18.90 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Montevito

5.35 points below expected

11 points · 16.35 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Tre Fiori 18 11 5 2 27 44 17 +27 24.04 +2.96
2 Faetano 18 9 6 3 24 19 15 +4 18.90 +5.10
3 Domagnano 18 8 6 4 22 25 12 +13 21.97 +0.03
4 Murata 18 7 6 5 20 23 23 0 15.26 +4.74
5 Juvenes 18 7 4 7 18 21 17 +4 17.46 +0.54
6 Libertas 18 5 6 7 16 25 26 -1 19.41 -3.41
7 Cosmos 18 6 4 8 16 26 42 -16 15.14 +0.86
8 Cailungo 18 4 6 8 14 20 30 -10 17.13 -3.13
9 Folgore Falciano 18 3 6 9 12 13 23 -10 14.34 -2.34
10 Montevito 18 1 9 8 11 16 27 -11 16.35 -5.35

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Faetano 24 18.90 +5.10
2 Murata 20 15.26 +4.74
3 Tre Fiori 27 24.04 +2.96
4 Cosmos 16 15.14 +0.86
5 Juvenes 18 17.46 +0.54

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Montevito 11 16.35 -5.35
2 Libertas 16 19.41 -3.41
3 Cailungo 14 17.13 -3.13
4 Folgore Falciano 12 14.34 -2.34
5 Domagnano 22 21.97 +0.03

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Tre Fiori 1653 27 +26 8 6.4 +1.6
Faetano 1524 24 +12 8 5.6 +2.4
Domagnano 1581 22 +0 6 5.7 +0.3
Murata 1471 20 +9 6 4.2 +1.8
Juvenes 1492 18 +9 5 5.2 -0.2
Libertas 1517 16 -23 4 5.9 -1.9
Cosmos 1437 16 +5 4 4.0 -0.0
Cailungo 1461 14 -10 3 4.3 -1.3
Folgore Falciano 1412 12 -7 3 4.0 -1.0
Montevito 1451 11 -15 4 5.0 -1.0

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CAI COS DOM FAE FF JUV LIB MON MUR TF
Cailungo —
1-1-0
2.99
0-1-1
1.94
0-0-2
2.47
1-1-0
3.16
0-1-1
2.54
1-0-1
2.38
1-1-0
2.63
0-1-1
3.07
0-0-2
1.60
Cosmos
0-1-1
2.33
 —
0-0-2
1.93
0-0-2
2.12
1-1-0
2.68
2-0-0
2.13
1-0-1
1.93
1-1-0
2.19
1-1-0
2.55
0-0-2
1.59
Domagnano
1-1-0
3.39
2-0-0
3.41
 —
0-0-2
3.24
1-1-0
3.77
1-0-1
3.30
1-1-0
3.03
0-2-0
3.30
1-1-0
3.59
1-0-1
2.29
Faetano
2-0-0
2.84
2-0-0
3.20
2-0-0
2.08
 —
0-1-1
3.41
0-1-1
2.94
0-2-0
2.48
2-0-0
2.85
0-1-1
3.18
1-1-0
1.89
Folgore Falciano
0-1-1
2.16
0-1-1
2.64
0-1-1
1.60
1-1-0
1.92
 —
0-0-2
2.14
2-0-0
1.75
0-1-1
2.19
0-0-2
2.46
0-1-1
1.50
Juvenes
1-1-0
2.78
0-0-2
3.19
1-0-1
2.03
1-1-0
2.38
2-0-0
3.18
 —
0-1-1
2.27
1-1-0
2.69
1-0-1
2.80
0-0-2
1.74
Libertas
1-0-1
2.94
1-0-1
3.41
0-1-1
2.29
0-2-0
2.84
0-0-2
3.60
1-1-0
3.06
 —
1-1-0
3.17
1-1-0
3.32
0-0-2
2.11
Montevito
0-1-1
2.68
0-1-1
3.13
0-2-0
2.03
0-0-2
2.46
1-1-0
3.13
0-1-1
2.63
0-1-1
2.16
 —
0-0-2
2.84
0-2-0
1.70
Murata
1-1-0
2.25
0-1-1
2.77
0-1-1
1.76
1-1-0
2.15
2-0-0
2.86
1-0-1
2.52
0-1-1
2.01
2-0-0
2.48
 —
0-1-1
1.60
Tre Fiori
2-0-0
3.76
2-0-0
3.78
1-0-1
3.03
0-1-1
3.44
1-1-0
3.87
2-0-0
3.61
2-0-0
3.21
0-2-0
3.66
1-1-0
3.77
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.52 +4.5
Allowed 0.36 -3.6
Differential 0.76 +3.5

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
015.56%8.89%3.33%1.67%0.56%2.22%32.22%
18.89%14.44%7.78%2.78%0.56%0.56%35.00%
23.33%7.78%2.22%3.33%0.56%1.11%18.33%
31.67%2.78%3.33%——0.56%8.33%
40.56%0.56%0.56%———1.67%
5+2.22%0.56%1.11%0.56%——4.44%
Total32.22%35.00%18.33%8.33%1.67%4.44%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 1.29 +0.00
SD 1.40 1.40 1.93
CV 1.08 1.08 —
Max 7 7 +7
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 90

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%16.67%———5.56%33.33%
15.56%22.22%11.11%———38.89%
25.56%——5.56%——11.11%
3—5.56%5.56%——5.56%16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total22.22%44.44%16.67%5.56%—11.11%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.11 1.67 -0.56
SD 1.08 1.94 1.92
CV 0.97 1.16 —
Max 3 7 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————5.56%16.67%22.22%
116.67%22.22%5.56%—5.56%—50.00%
2———11.11%——11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4———————
5+——11.11%———11.11%
Total22.22%22.22%16.67%11.11%11.11%16.67%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.44 2.33 -0.89
SD 1.50 2.14 3.01
CV 1.04 0.92 —
Max 5 7 +3
Min 0 0 -7

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%5.56%———33.33%
116.67%11.11%5.56%5.56%——38.89%
25.56%5.56%————11.11%
35.56%—————5.56%
4—5.56%————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total55.56%27.78%11.11%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 0.67 +0.72
SD 1.79 0.91 2.11
CV 1.29 1.36 —
Max 7 3 +7
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%5.56%11.11%———38.89%
116.67%5.56%————22.22%
2—27.78%5.56%———33.33%
3——5.56%———5.56%
4———————
5+———————
Total38.89%38.89%22.22%———100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.06 0.83 +0.22
SD 1.00 0.79 1.00
CV 0.95 0.94 —
Max 3 2 +1
Min 0 0 -2

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
022.22%16.67%5.56%5.56%——50.00%
1—11.11%11.11%——5.56%27.78%
211.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%33.33%16.67%11.11%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.72 1.28 -0.56
SD 0.83 1.36 1.50
CV 1.14 1.07 —
Max 2 5 +2
Min 0 0 -4

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%22.22%————33.33%
111.11%5.56%11.11%———27.78%
25.56%11.11%5.56%5.56%——27.78%
35.56%5.56%————11.11%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.17 0.94 +0.22
SD 1.04 0.87 1.26
CV 0.89 0.92 —
Max 3 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
027.78%—11.11%5.56%——44.44%
1—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
2—5.56%——5.56%5.56%16.67%
3—5.56%5.56%———11.11%
45.56%—————5.56%
5+5.56%—————5.56%
Total38.89%16.67%22.22%11.11%5.56%5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.39 1.44 -0.06
SD 1.72 1.54 2.34
CV 1.24 1.07 —
Max 6 5 +6
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%11.11%—5.56%——27.78%
1—33.33%11.11%11.11%——55.56%
2—5.56%5.56%5.56%——16.67%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total11.11%50.00%16.67%22.22%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 0.89 1.50 -0.61
SD 0.68 0.99 0.98
CV 0.76 0.66 —
Max 2 3 +1
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
016.67%5.56%————22.22%
111.11%16.67%11.11%5.56%——44.44%
25.56%5.56%———5.56%16.67%
3——16.67%———16.67%
4———————
5+———————
Total33.33%27.78%27.78%5.56%—5.56%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.28 1.28 +0.00
SD 1.02 1.32 1.24
CV 0.80 1.03 —
Max 3 5 +2
Min 0 0 -3

Games Played: 18

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
011.11%5.56%————16.67%
111.11%11.11%5.56%———27.78%
2—11.11%5.56%———16.67%
3—11.11%————11.11%
4——5.56%———5.56%
5+11.11%5.56%—5.56%——22.22%
Total33.33%44.44%16.67%5.56%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.44 0.94 +1.50
SD 2.15 0.87 2.04
CV 0.88 0.92 —
Max 7 3 +6
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 18

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Tre Fiori 1652 27 24.04 +2.96 86.0% 16 18 22 24 26 29 32
Domagnano 1587 22 21.97 +0.03 59.0% 11 15 20 22 25 28 29
Faetano 1531 24 18.90 +5.10 89.0% 10 12 16 19 21 25 27
Libertas 1517 16 19.41 -3.41 16.0% 12 14 17 19 22 23 28
Juvenes 1492 18 17.46 +0.54 62.0% 11 12 15 18 20 23 24
Cailungo 1461 14 17.13 -3.13 24.0% 10 11 15 17 20 22 25
Murata 1458 20 15.26 +4.74 96.0% 7 10 13 15 17 20 24
Montevito 1451 11 16.35 -5.35 5.0% 9 11 14 16 18 21 25
Cosmos 1437 16 15.14 +0.86 70.0% 7 10 13 15 17 21 25
Folgore Falciano 1412 12 14.34 -2.34 32.0% 6 10 12 15 16 19 22

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under -4.5% * Slight Edge: -4.5% to 0.5% * Clear Edge: 0.5% to 5% * Strong Edge: 5% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
+1.11%
Clear Edge
34.44%32.22%33.33%
Elo Value
Home Edge: 3.86 Elo pts.
124 Elo
0.008 goals per Elo point
0400
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.18 goals
Neutral
-2+0.03+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 4 * Top-Heavy: 4 to 5 * Open: 5 to 6 * Wide Open: 6 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 5th * Longshot: 6th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.19 * Runaway: 0.19 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
One-Team Race
145610
Champion Preseason Odds
57%
Tre Fiori, 1st of 10
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.17/gm
Comfortable
00.160.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 2.67 * Some Luck: 2.67 to 4 * Lucky: 4 to 5.34 * Wild Swing: 5.34 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 1.46 * Close: 1.46 to 2.19 * Off: 2.19 to 2.92 * Way Off: 2.92 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 10 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 10 * As Expected: 10 to 16 * Several Outliers: 16 to 22 * Many Outliers: 22 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
3.37 points
Some Luck
03.348
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.80
Close
01.834
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 95.00%
96.00%
Murata
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected 5.00%
5.00%
Montevito
050
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 10
Minimal Outliers
01.010

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.2 * Even: 0.2 to 0.23 * Top-Heavy: 0.23 to 0.26 * Lopsided: 0.26 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.7 * Moderate Separation: 1.7 to 1.9 * Strong Separation: 1.9 to 2.2 * Wide Separation: 2.2 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 74% * Slight Edge: 74% to 79.5% * Clear Edge: 79.5% to 84.5% * Wide Edge: 84.5% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 91% * Clear Edge: 91% to 95.5% * Strong Edge: 95.5% to 97.5% * Dominant: 97.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 56% * Some Drama: 56% to 59.5% * Frequent: 59.5% to 65.5% * Very Frequent: 65.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 16.5% * Occasional: 16.5% to 19.5% * Frequent: 19.5% to 23% * Very Frequent: 23% and up.
Gini Index
0.16
Balanced
00.20.260.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 72.49
1.50
Coin-Flip Parity
11.71.92.23
Interquartile Edge
60%
Even
50%74%84.5%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline
80%
Even
50%80%100%
Close Games
Expected
72%
Very Frequent
0%56%100%
Blowouts
Expected
14%
Rare
0%20%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.37 * Slight Separation: 0.37 to 0.43 * Notable Separation: 0.43 to 0.47 * Lopsided: 0.47 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.36 * Some Carryover: 0.36 to 0.52 * Strong Carryover: 0.52 to 0.69 * Near-Lock: 0.69 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21.5% * Upset-Prone: 21.5% to 24.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 24.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 15% * As Expected: 15% to 17.5% * Shaky Favorites: 17.5% to 20.5% * Very Shaky: 20.5% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.64
Hard to Predict
00.642
Matchup Imbalance
0.27
Very Even
00.370.430.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.02
As Expected
01.002
Repeatability
0.52
Strong Carryover
00.360.520.691
Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Upset-Prone
0%24%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
23%
Very Shaky
0%21%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.17 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.17 to 0.26 * Above Noise: 0.26 to 0.34 * Well Above Noise: 0.34 and up.
Probability calibration
0.93
Excellent
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
1.07
Calibrated
0.51.001.5
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.068
Well Within Noise
00.1710.4

Promotion Playoff

The path the promotion-playoff teams took to determine the final promotion spot. The sections below show matchup heatmaps and round-by-round simulation outcomes.

First Round

Domagnano 3
Murata 1

Second Round

Faetano 3
Murata 1

Quarterfinals

Domagnano 1
Tre Fiori 1

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678910
Tre Fiori57.00%22.00%9.00%6.00%4.00%——2.00%——
Faetano5.00%13.00%18.00%14.00%17.00%11.00%8.00%4.00%4.00%6.00%
Domagnano28.00%30.00%17.00%13.00%4.00%3.00%2.00%—2.00%1.00%
Murata1.00%2.00%2.00%6.00%9.00%8.00%25.00%15.00%15.00%17.00%
Juvenes1.00%5.00%12.00%15.00%17.00%16.00%10.00%12.00%5.00%7.00%
Libertas3.00%16.00%25.00%13.00%19.00%5.00%7.00%5.00%6.00%1.00%
Cosmos2.00%1.00%2.00%7.00%3.00%14.00%11.00%19.00%26.00%15.00%
Cailungo2.00%6.00%8.00%14.00%15.00%12.00%15.00%5.00%14.00%9.00%
Folgore Falciano—2.00%3.00%2.00%4.00%11.00%14.00%18.00%15.00%31.00%
Montevito1.00%3.00%4.00%10.00%8.00%20.00%8.00%20.00%13.00%13.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Stochastic Promotion/Relegation Outcomes

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations from preseason Elo, the probability of each team's next-season outcome — promotion-positive outcomes on the left, relegation-positive on the right. The round buttons switch to heatmaps of how often each pair of teams met in that round of the playoff across the simulations, since every iteration produces a different field.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Tre Fiori 6.00% —
Domagnano 9.00% 3.00%
Libertas 36.00% 7.00%
Faetano 40.00% 10.00%
Juvenes 55.00% 12.00%
Cailungo 47.00% 23.00%
Montevito 56.00% 26.00%
Murata 57.00% 32.00%
Cosmos 47.00% 41.00%
Folgore Falciano 47.00% 46.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoCosmosDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoJuvenesLibertasMontevitoMurataTre Fiori
Cailungo33.3%9.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%57.1%7.00%14.3%14.00%
Cosmos0.0%3.00%0.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Domagnano66.7%9.00%100.0%3.00%46.7%15.00%100.0%1.00%55.6%9.00%39.1%23.00%50.0%10.00%60.0%5.00%20.0%10.00%
Faetano0.0%1.00%100.0%2.00%53.3%15.00%0.0%2.00%50.0%6.00%23.1%26.00%
Folgore Falciano0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%
Juvenes0.0%1.00%44.4%9.00%100.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%33.3%6.00%11.1%9.00%
Libertas42.9%7.00%60.9%23.00%50.0%6.00%66.7%6.00%0.0%1.00%66.7%3.00%21.1%19.00%
Montevito100.0%1.00%50.0%10.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%
Murata40.0%5.00%100.0%1.00%33.3%3.00%0.0%1.00%12.5%8.00%
Tre Fiori85.7%14.00%100.0%1.00%80.0%10.00%76.9%26.00%100.0%1.00%88.9%9.00%78.9%19.00%75.0%4.00%87.5%8.00%
Loser →
↓ Winner
CailungoDomagnanoFaetanoFolgore FalcianoJuvenesLibertasMontevitoMurataTre Fiori
Cailungo0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%5.00%
Domagnano100.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%50.0%2.00%66.7%6.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%30.8%26.00%
Faetano100.0%1.00%50.0%4.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%8.3%12.00%
Folgore Falciano0.0%1.00%
Juvenes50.0%2.00%50.0%2.00%0.0%1.00%25.0%4.00%
Libertas50.0%2.00%33.3%6.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%21.1%19.00%
Montevito0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%42.9%7.00%
Murata0.0%1.00%0.0%1.00%100.0%1.00%50.0%2.00%
Tre Fiori100.0%5.00%69.2%26.00%91.7%12.00%75.0%4.00%78.9%19.00%57.1%7.00%50.0%2.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1993-10-01 Libertas W 2-052.5 1492 1535 27.89% 34.05% 38.06%-0.31 +10.9 2
1993-10-01 @ Cailungo L 0-252.5 1535 1492 38.06% 34.05% 27.89%+0.31 -10.9 0
1993-10-01 Montevito D 1-161.5 1551 1499 40.83% 33.87% 25.30%+0.45 -0.4 1
1993-10-01 @ Domagnano D 1-161.5 1499 1551 25.30% 33.87% 40.83%-0.45 +0.5 1
1993-10-01 Faetano W 1-053.4 1470 1510 28.31% 34.08% 37.62%-0.29 +5.7 2
1993-10-01 @ Juvenes L 0-153.4 1510 1470 37.62% 34.08% 28.31%+0.29 -5.7 0
1993-10-01 Cosmos D 1-156.6 1455 1466 32.23% 34.21% 33.56%-0.05 +0.0 1
1993-10-01 @ Murata D 1-156.6 1466 1455 33.56% 34.21% 32.23%+0.05 -0.0 1
1993-10-01 Folgore Falciano D 0-057.0 1593 1429 53.82% 31.26% 14.92%+1.35 -1.4 1
1993-10-01 @ Tre Fiori D 0-057.0 1429 1593 14.92% 31.26% 53.82%-1.35 +1.4 1
1993-10-08 Folgore Falciano W 1-047.2 1503 1430 43.51% 33.57% 22.92%+0.62 +4.1 4
1993-10-08 @ Cailungo L 0-147.2 1430 1503 22.92% 33.57% 43.51%-0.62 -4.1 1
1993-10-08 Juvenes L 0-254.0 1551 1476 43.75% 33.54% 22.72%+0.63 -12.1 1
1993-10-08 @ Domagnano W 2-054.0 1476 1551 22.72% 33.54% 43.75%-0.63 +12.1 4
1993-10-08 Montevito W 2-157.3 1504 1500 34.31% 34.21% 31.48%+0.06 +4.8 2
1993-10-08 @ Faetano L 1-257.3 1500 1504 31.48% 34.21% 34.31%-0.06 -4.8 1
1993-10-08 Libertas L 1-254.2 1455 1524 24.70% 33.75% 41.55%-0.52 -4.1 1
1993-10-08 @ Murata W 2-154.2 1524 1455 41.55% 33.75% 24.70%+0.52 +4.1 2
1993-10-08 Cosmos W 5-044.7 1592 1466 49.80% 32.40% 17.80%+1.05 +14.7 3
1993-10-08 @ Tre Fiori L 0-544.7 1466 1592 17.80% 32.40% 49.80%-1.05 -14.7 1
1993-10-15 Domagnano L 1-448.7 1451 1539 22.60% 33.45% 43.96%-0.67 -9.3 1
1993-10-15 @ Cosmos W 4-148.7 1539 1451 43.96% 33.45% 22.60%+0.67 +9.3 3
1993-10-15 Tre Fiori W 2-165.0 1509 1606 21.54% 33.25% 45.21%-0.76 +6.2 4
1993-10-15 @ Faetano L 1-265.0 1606 1509 45.21% 33.25% 21.54%+0.76 -6.2 3
1993-10-15 Montevito D 0-052.5 1426 1495 24.73% 33.75% 41.51%-0.52 +0.5 2
1993-10-15 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-052.5 1495 1426 41.51% 33.75% 24.73%+0.52 -0.5 2
1993-10-15 Libertas D 0-055.9 1488 1528 28.23% 34.07% 37.70%-0.29 +0.3 5
1993-10-15 @ Juvenes D 0-055.9 1528 1488 37.70% 34.07% 28.23%+0.29 -0.3 3
1993-10-15 Cailungo D 1-158.0 1451 1507 26.20% 33.91% 39.89%-0.42 +0.4 2
1993-10-15 @ Murata D 1-158.0 1507 1451 39.89% 33.91% 26.20%+0.42 -0.4 5
1993-10-22 Faetano L 0-153.5 1507 1515 32.59% 34.21% 33.20%-0.03 -5.2 5
1993-10-22 @ Cailungo W 1-053.5 1515 1507 33.20% 34.21% 32.59%+0.03 +5.2 6
1993-10-22 Cosmos W 7-043.9 1548 1442 47.54% 32.90% 19.56%+0.89 +21.8 5
1993-10-22 @ Domagnano L 0-743.9 1442 1548 19.56% 32.90% 47.54%-0.89 -21.8 1
1993-10-22 Montevito D 2-263.7 1488 1494 32.87% 34.21% 32.92%-0.02 +0.0 6
1993-10-22 @ Juvenes D 2-263.7 1494 1488 32.92% 34.21% 32.87%+0.02 +0.0 3
1993-10-22 Tre Fiori L 1-356.5 1528 1600 24.27% 33.70% 42.03%-0.55 -6.9 3
1993-10-22 @ Libertas W 3-156.5 1600 1528 42.03% 33.70% 24.27%+0.55 +6.9 5
1993-10-22 Folgore Falciano W 1-047.2 1452 1427 37.18% 34.12% 28.70%+0.23 +4.8 4
1993-10-22 @ Murata L 0-147.2 1427 1452 28.70% 34.12% 37.18%-0.23 -4.8 2
1993-10-29 Murata L 2-362.4 1502 1456 39.98% 33.95% 26.08%+0.40 -5.4 5
1993-10-29 @ Cailungo W 3-262.4 1456 1502 26.08% 33.95% 39.98%-0.40 +5.4 6
1993-10-29 Juvenes W 1-051.9 1420 1488 24.71% 33.75% 41.53%-0.52 +6.2 3
1993-10-29 @ Cosmos L 0-151.9 1488 1420 41.53% 33.75% 24.71%+0.52 -6.2 6
1993-10-29 Faetano D 1-157.7 1422 1520 21.54% 33.25% 45.21%-0.76 +0.7 3
1993-10-29 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-157.7 1520 1422 45.21% 33.25% 21.54%+0.76 -0.7 7
1993-10-29 Domagnano L 0-349.6 1521 1570 27.09% 33.99% 38.92%-0.36 -12.6 3
1993-10-29 @ Libertas W 3-049.6 1570 1521 38.92% 33.99% 27.09%+0.36 +12.6 7
1993-10-29 Montevito D 0-059.4 1607 1494 48.30% 32.75% 18.96%+0.94 -1.0 6
1993-10-29 @ Tre Fiori D 0-059.4 1494 1607 18.96% 32.75% 48.30%-0.94 +1.0 4
1993-11-05 Cailungo D 0-058.4 1582 1496 45.12% 33.34% 21.54%+0.72 -0.8 8
1993-11-05 @ Domagnano D 0-058.4 1496 1582 21.54% 33.34% 45.12%-0.72 +0.8 6
1993-11-05 Folgore Falciano L 0-251.6 1519 1423 46.39% 33.12% 20.49%+0.81 -12.7 7
1993-11-05 @ Faetano W 2-051.6 1423 1519 20.49% 33.12% 46.39%-0.81 +12.7 5
1993-11-05 Murata L 2-361.9 1495 1462 38.40% 34.06% 27.54%+0.30 -5.2 4
1993-11-05 @ Montevito W 3-261.9 1462 1495 27.54% 34.06% 38.40%-0.30 +5.2 8
1993-11-05 Tre Fiori L 1-256.1 1482 1606 19.04% 32.66% 48.30%-0.97 -3.3 6
1993-11-05 @ Juvenes W 2-156.1 1606 1482 48.30% 32.66% 19.04%+0.97 +3.3 8
1993-11-05 Cosmos W 4-041.5 1508 1426 44.69% 33.40% 21.91%+0.69 +14.1 5
1993-11-05 @ Libertas L 0-441.5 1426 1508 21.91% 33.40% 44.69%-0.69 -14.1 3
1993-11-12 Montevito W 1-052.0 1412 1490 23.62% 33.61% 42.77%-0.60 +6.3 5
1993-11-12 @ Cosmos L 0-152.0 1490 1412 42.77% 33.61% 23.62%+0.60 -6.3 4
1993-11-12 Folgore Falciano W 2-044.9 1581 1436 51.94% 31.84% 16.22%+1.21 +5.8 10
1993-11-12 @ Domagnano L 0-244.9 1436 1581 16.22% 31.84% 51.94%-1.21 -5.8 5
1993-11-12 Juvenes D 0-054.8 1507 1479 37.60% 34.10% 28.29%+0.25 -0.3 8
1993-11-12 @ Faetano D 0-054.8 1479 1507 28.29% 34.10% 37.60%-0.25 +0.3 7
1993-11-12 Cailungo W 6-047.5 1522 1497 37.25% 34.12% 28.63%+0.23 +25.0 7
1993-11-12 @ Libertas L 0-647.5 1497 1522 28.63% 34.12% 37.25%-0.23 -25.0 6
1993-11-12 Tre Fiori L 1-255.1 1467 1609 17.45% 32.16% 50.39%-1.12 -3.1 8
1993-11-12 @ Murata W 2-155.1 1609 1467 50.39% 32.16% 17.45%+1.12 +3.1 10
1993-11-19 Montevito W 3-153.4 1472 1484 32.06% 34.21% 33.73%-0.06 +8.7 8
1993-11-19 @ Cailungo L 1-353.4 1484 1472 33.73% 34.21% 32.06%+0.06 -8.7 4
1993-11-19 Libertas D 0-060.0 1587 1547 39.26% 34.00% 26.74%+0.35 -0.4 11
1993-11-19 @ Domagnano D 0-060.0 1547 1587 26.74% 34.00% 39.26%-0.35 +0.4 8
1993-11-19 Cosmos D 1-154.3 1430 1418 35.36% 34.19% 30.45%+0.12 -0.1 6
1993-11-19 @ Folgore Falciano D 1-154.3 1418 1430 30.45% 34.19% 35.36%-0.12 +0.1 6
1993-11-19 Juvenes L 1-352.3 1464 1479 31.54% 34.20% 34.26%-0.09 -8.3 8
1993-11-19 @ Murata W 3-152.3 1479 1464 34.26% 34.20% 31.54%+0.09 +8.3 9
1993-11-19 Faetano D 2-268.9 1613 1506 47.54% 32.90% 19.56%+0.89 -0.6 11
1993-11-19 @ Tre Fiori D 2-268.9 1506 1613 19.56% 32.90% 47.54%-0.89 +0.6 9
1993-11-26 Juvenes L 1-256.3 1481 1487 32.77% 34.21% 33.01%-0.02 -4.9 8
1993-11-26 @ Cailungo W 2-156.3 1487 1481 33.01% 34.21% 32.77%+0.02 +4.9 11
1993-11-26 Murata W 5-251.9 1418 1455 28.58% 34.09% 37.33%-0.27 +11.4 8
1993-11-26 @ Cosmos L 2-551.9 1455 1418 37.33% 34.09% 28.58%+0.27 -11.4 8
1993-11-26 Faetano L 1-264.2 1587 1507 44.39% 33.45% 22.16%+0.67 -6.1 11
1993-11-26 @ Domagnano W 2-164.2 1507 1587 22.16% 33.45% 44.39%-0.67 +6.1 11
1993-11-26 Libertas L 1-352.9 1475 1548 24.26% 33.70% 42.04%-0.55 -6.9 4
1993-11-26 @ Montevito W 3-152.9 1548 1475 42.04% 33.70% 24.26%+0.55 +6.9 10
1993-11-26 Tre Fiori L 1-546.0 1430 1612 14.51% 30.91% 54.58%-1.44 -8.3 6
1993-11-26 @ Folgore Falciano W 5-146.0 1612 1430 54.58% 30.91% 14.51%+1.44 +8.3 13
1993-12-03 Cailungo W 1-050.6 1513 1476 38.88% 34.03% 27.09%+0.33 +4.6 13
1993-12-03 @ Faetano L 0-150.6 1476 1513 27.09% 34.03% 38.88%-0.33 -4.6 8
1993-12-03 Cosmos D 1-155.9 1468 1430 39.06% 34.02% 26.92%+0.34 -0.3 5
1993-12-03 @ Montevito D 1-155.9 1430 1468 26.92% 34.02% 39.06%-0.34 +0.3 9
1993-12-03 Murata L 2-356.5 1421 1444 30.51% 34.17% 35.32%-0.15 -4.5 6
1993-12-03 @ Folgore Falciano W 3-256.5 1444 1421 35.32% 34.17% 30.51%+0.15 +4.5 10
1993-12-03 Domagnano L 0-152.1 1492 1581 22.53% 33.43% 44.04%-0.68 -4.0 11
1993-12-03 @ Juvenes W 1-052.1 1581 1492 44.04% 33.43% 22.53%+0.68 +4.0 13
1993-12-03 Libertas W 4-261.1 1620 1555 42.60% 33.68% 23.71%+0.56 +6.1 15
1993-12-03 @ Tre Fiori L 2-461.1 1555 1620 23.71% 33.68% 42.60%-0.56 -6.1 10
1993-12-10 Cailungo L 2-356.8 1430 1471 28.05% 34.06% 37.89%-0.30 -4.2 9
1993-12-10 @ Cosmos W 3-256.8 1471 1430 37.89% 34.06% 28.05%+0.30 +4.2 10
1993-12-10 Domagnano W 1-058.8 1518 1585 24.90% 33.77% 41.33%-0.51 +6.1 15
1993-12-10 @ Faetano L 0-158.8 1585 1518 41.33% 33.77% 24.90%+0.51 -6.2 13
1993-12-10 Tre Fiori D 1-163.6 1468 1626 16.20% 31.69% 52.11%-1.24 +1.1 6
1993-12-10 @ Montevito D 1-163.6 1626 1468 52.11% 31.69% 16.20%+1.24 -1.1 16
1993-12-10 Juvenes L 0-146.7 1417 1488 24.38% 33.71% 41.91%-0.54 -4.2 6
1993-12-10 @ Folgore Falciano W 1-046.7 1488 1417 41.91% 33.71% 24.38%+0.54 +4.3 13
1993-12-10 Murata D 0-055.5 1548 1449 46.80% 33.04% 20.15%+0.84 -0.9 11
1993-12-10 @ Libertas D 0-055.5 1449 1548 20.15% 33.04% 46.80%-0.84 +0.9 11
1994-03-01 Domagnano L 1-255.7 1476 1579 21.01% 33.14% 45.84%-0.80 -3.6 10
1994-03-01 @ Cailungo W 2-155.7 1579 1476 45.84% 33.14% 21.01%+0.80 +3.6 15
1994-03-01 Folgore Falciano L 1-260.8 1548 1413 50.77% 32.16% 17.07%+1.12 -6.8 11
1994-03-01 @ Libertas W 2-160.8 1413 1548 17.07% 32.16% 50.77%-1.12 +6.8 8
1994-03-01 Faetano W 2-051.6 1449 1524 24.06% 33.67% 42.27%-0.57 +11.8 13
1994-03-01 @ Murata L 0-251.6 1524 1449 42.27% 33.67% 24.06%+0.57 -11.8 15
1994-03-01 Juvenes W 1-051.7 1625 1493 50.50% 32.23% 17.27%+1.10 +3.2 18
1994-03-01 @ Tre Fiori L 0-151.7 1493 1625 17.27% 32.23% 50.50%-1.10 -3.3 13
1994-03-08 Domagnano D 1-161.8 1469 1582 20.03% 32.92% 47.05%-0.88 +0.8 7
1994-03-08 @ Montevito D 1-161.8 1582 1469 47.05% 32.92% 20.03%+0.88 -0.8 16
1994-03-08 Cailungo D 0-051.5 1419 1472 26.64% 33.95% 39.41%-0.39 +0.4 9
1994-03-08 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-051.5 1472 1419 39.41% 33.95% 26.64%+0.39 -0.4 11
1994-03-08 Cosmos L 0-152.4 1489 1426 42.34% 33.71% 23.94%+0.54 -6.3 13
1994-03-08 @ Juvenes W 1-052.4 1426 1489 23.94% 33.71% 42.34%-0.54 +6.3 11
1994-03-08 Faetano D 0-057.3 1541 1512 37.74% 34.10% 28.16%+0.26 -0.3 12
1994-03-08 @ Libertas D 0-057.3 1512 1541 28.16% 34.10% 37.74%-0.26 +0.3 16
1994-03-08 Murata D 1-163.7 1628 1461 54.15% 31.16% 14.70%+1.38 -1.2 19
1994-03-08 @ Tre Fiori D 1-163.7 1461 1628 14.70% 31.16% 54.15%-1.38 +1.2 14
1994-03-15 Cosmos D 1-156.1 1472 1432 39.19% 34.01% 26.80%+0.35 -0.3 12
1994-03-15 @ Cailungo D 1-156.1 1432 1472 26.80% 34.01% 39.19%-0.35 +0.4 12
1994-03-15 Faetano L 1-255.3 1470 1512 27.89% 34.05% 38.06%-0.31 -4.4 7
1994-03-15 @ Montevito W 2-155.3 1512 1470 38.06% 34.05% 27.89%+0.31 +4.4 18
1994-03-15 Domagnano D 0-056.1 1420 1581 15.97% 31.59% 52.44%-1.27 +1.3 10
1994-03-15 @ Folgore Falciano D 0-056.1 1581 1420 52.44% 31.59% 15.97%+1.27 -1.3 17
1994-03-15 Juvenes W 3-260.2 1540 1483 41.54% 33.80% 24.65%+0.49 +3.8 14
1994-03-15 @ Libertas L 2-360.2 1483 1540 24.65% 33.80% 41.54%-0.49 -3.8 13
1994-03-22 Libertas W 5-258.0 1432 1544 20.16% 32.95% 46.89%-0.87 +13.6 14
1994-03-22 @ Cosmos L 2-558.0 1544 1432 46.89% 32.95% 20.16%+0.87 -13.6 14
1994-03-22 Tre Fiori W 1-061.0 1580 1627 27.32% 34.01% 38.68%-0.35 +5.9 19
1994-03-22 @ Domagnano L 0-161.0 1627 1580 38.68% 34.01% 27.32%+0.35 -5.9 19
1994-03-22 Murata D 0-054.6 1517 1462 41.14% 33.84% 25.02%+0.47 -0.5 19
1994-03-22 @ Faetano D 0-054.6 1462 1517 25.02% 33.84% 41.14%-0.47 +0.5 15
1994-03-22 Cailungo D 1-157.2 1465 1471 32.89% 34.21% 32.90%-0.02 +0.0 8
1994-03-22 @ Montevito D 1-157.2 1471 1465 32.90% 34.21% 32.89%+0.02 +0.0 13
1994-03-22 Folgore Falciano W 2-151.4 1479 1421 41.65% 33.79% 24.56%+0.50 +4.0 15
1994-03-22 @ Juvenes L 1-251.4 1421 1479 24.56% 33.79% 41.65%-0.50 -4.0 10
1994-03-29 Tre Fiori L 0-150.6 1471 1621 16.84% 31.94% 51.22%-1.18 -3.2 13
1994-03-29 @ Cailungo W 1-050.6 1621 1471 51.22% 31.94% 16.84%+1.18 +3.2 21
1994-03-29 Libertas D 0-057.0 1516 1531 31.65% 34.20% 34.14%-0.09 +0.1 20
1994-03-29 @ Faetano D 0-057.0 1531 1516 34.14% 34.20% 31.65%+0.09 -0.1 15
1994-03-29 Folgore Falciano W 2-151.2 1465 1417 40.36% 33.91% 25.73%+0.42 +4.2 10
1994-03-29 @ Montevito L 1-251.2 1417 1465 25.73% 33.91% 40.36%-0.42 -4.2 10
1994-03-29 Domagnano L 0-150.0 1463 1586 19.13% 32.69% 48.19%-0.96 -3.5 15
1994-03-29 @ Murata W 1-050.0 1586 1463 48.19% 32.69% 19.13%+0.96 +3.5 21
1994-04-05 Faetano L 1-253.5 1446 1516 24.52% 33.73% 41.75%-0.53 -4.0 14
1994-04-05 @ Cosmos W 2-153.5 1516 1446 41.75% 33.73% 24.52%+0.53 +4.0 22
1994-04-05 Libertas W 2-051.9 1413 1531 19.60% 32.81% 47.59%-0.92 +13.0 12
1994-04-05 @ Folgore Falciano L 0-251.9 1531 1413 47.59% 32.81% 19.60%+0.92 -13.0 15
1994-04-05 Montevito W 1-050.4 1459 1469 32.28% 34.21% 33.51%-0.05 +5.3 17
1994-04-05 @ Murata L 0-150.4 1469 1459 33.51% 34.21% 32.28%+0.05 -5.3 10
1994-04-05 Cailungo W 7-350.9 1625 1468 53.05% 31.51% 15.44%+1.29 +6.8 23
1994-04-05 @ Tre Fiori L 3-750.9 1468 1625 15.44% 31.51% 53.05%-1.29 -6.8 13
1994-04-12 Folgore Falciano W 3-042.6 1442 1426 36.00% 34.17% 29.83%+0.16 +13.4 16
1994-04-12 @ Cosmos L 0-342.6 1426 1442 29.83% 34.17% 36.00%-0.16 -13.4 12
1994-04-12 Murata D 0-057.8 1590 1465 49.64% 32.44% 17.92%+1.04 -1.1 22
1994-04-12 @ Domagnano D 0-057.8 1465 1590 17.92% 32.44% 49.64%-1.04 +1.1 18
1994-04-12 Cailungo D 1-157.5 1483 1461 36.83% 34.14% 29.03%+0.21 -0.2 16
1994-04-12 @ Juvenes D 1-157.5 1461 1483 29.03% 34.14% 36.83%-0.21 +0.2 14
1994-04-12 Montevito D 1-158.9 1518 1464 41.04% 33.85% 25.10%+0.46 -0.5 16
1994-04-12 @ Libertas D 1-158.9 1464 1518 25.10% 33.85% 41.04%-0.46 +0.5 11
1994-04-19 Cosmos W 3-258.1 1520 1455 42.52% 33.69% 23.79%+0.55 +3.7 24
1994-04-19 @ Faetano L 2-358.1 1455 1520 23.79% 33.69% 42.52%-0.55 -3.7 16
1994-04-19 Murata L 1-256.6 1483 1466 36.15% 34.17% 29.68%+0.17 -5.3 16
1994-04-19 @ Juvenes W 2-156.6 1466 1483 29.68% 34.17% 36.15%-0.17 +5.3 20
1994-04-19 Domagnano W 3-159.5 1631 1588 39.65% 33.97% 26.38%+0.38 +7.4 25
1994-04-19 @ Tre Fiori L 1-359.5 1588 1631 26.38% 33.97% 39.65%-0.38 -7.4 22
1994-04-26 Tre Fiori L 0-644.7 1452 1639 14.20% 30.74% 55.06%-1.47 -14.3 16
1994-04-26 @ Cosmos W 6-044.7 1639 1452 55.06% 30.74% 14.20%+1.47 +14.3 27
1994-04-26 Juvenes L 0-345.7 1465 1478 31.84% 34.20% 33.95%-0.07 -14.0 11
1994-04-26 @ Montevito W 3-045.7 1478 1465 33.95% 34.20% 31.84%+0.07 +14.0 18

Playoff Game Log

Every playoff game for the team selected at the top of the tab (empty if they didn't reach the postseason). Sort any column by clicking its header. @ before an opponent name indicates an away game; the record column shows the team's running playoff record.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Record
1994-05-03 Murata W 3-152.4 1581 1471 47.32% 32.91% 19.77%+0.88 +5.9 1-0
1994-05-03 @ Domagnano L 1-352.4 1471 1581 19.77% 32.91% 47.32%-0.88 -5.9 0-1
1994-05-10 Murata W 3-152.0 1524 1465 41.00% 33.83% 25.16%+0.47 +7.1 1-0
1994-05-10 @ Faetano L 1-352.0 1465 1524 25.16% 33.83% 41.00%-0.47 -7.1 0-2
1994-05-17 Tre Fiori D 1-166.8 1587 1653 24.34% 33.74% 41.93%-0.53 +0.5 1-0-1
1994-05-17 @ Domagnano D 1-166.8 1653 1587 41.93% 33.74% 24.34%+0.53 -0.5 0-0-1

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1994-03-01 17.07% Folgore Falciano 1413 2 @ Libertas 1548 1
2 1994-04-05 19.60% @ Folgore Falciano 1413 2 Libertas 1531 0
3 1994-03-22 20.16% @ Cosmos 1432 5 Libertas 1544 2
4 1993-11-05 20.49% Folgore Falciano 1423 2 @ Faetano 1519 0
5 1993-10-15 21.54% @ Faetano 1509 2 Tre Fiori 1606 1
6 1993-11-26 22.16% Faetano 1507 2 @ Domagnano 1587 1
7 1993-10-08 22.72% Juvenes 1476 2 @ Domagnano 1551 0
8 1993-11-12 23.62% @ Cosmos 1412 1 Montevito 1490 0
9 1994-03-08 23.94% Cosmos 1426 1 @ Juvenes 1489 0
10 1994-03-01 24.06% @ Murata 1449 2 Faetano 1524 0
11 1993-10-29 24.71% @ Cosmos 1420 1 Juvenes 1488 0
12 1993-12-10 24.90% @ Faetano 1518 1 Domagnano 1585 0
13 1993-10-29 26.08% Murata 1456 3 @ Cailungo 1502 2
14 1994-03-22 27.32% @ Domagnano 1580 1 Tre Fiori 1627 0
15 1993-11-05 27.54% Murata 1462 3 @ Montevito 1495 2
16 1993-10-01 27.89% @ Cailungo 1492 2 Libertas 1535 0
17 1993-10-01 28.31% @ Juvenes 1470 1 Faetano 1510 0
18 1993-11-26 28.58% @ Cosmos 1418 5 Murata 1455 2
19 1994-04-19 29.68% Murata 1466 2 @ Juvenes 1483 1
20 1993-11-19 32.06% @ Cailungo 1472 3 Montevito 1484 1
21 1994-04-05 32.28% @ Murata 1459 1 Montevito 1469 0

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-11-12 24.98 @ Libertas 6 1522 37.25% Cailungo 0 1497 28.63% 34.12%
2 1993-10-22 21.85 @ Domagnano 7 1548 47.54% Cosmos 0 1442 19.56% 32.90%
3 1993-10-08 14.72 @ Tre Fiori 5 1592 49.80% Cosmos 0 1466 17.80% 32.40%
4 1994-04-26 14.29 Tre Fiori 6 1639 55.06% @ Cosmos 0 1452 14.20% 30.74%
5 1993-11-05 14.08 @ Libertas 4 1508 44.69% Cosmos 0 1426 21.91% 33.40%
6 1994-04-26 14.04 Juvenes 3 1478 33.95% @ Montevito 0 1465 31.84% 34.20%
7 1994-03-22 13.57 @ Cosmos 5 1432 20.16% Libertas 2 1544 46.89% 32.95%
8 1994-04-12 13.44 @ Cosmos 3 1442 36.00% Folgore Falciano 0 1426 29.83% 34.17%
9 1994-04-05 12.95 @ Folgore Falciano 2 1413 19.60% Libertas 0 1531 47.59% 32.81%
10 1993-11-05 12.70 Folgore Falciano 2 1423 20.49% @ Faetano 0 1519 46.39% 33.12%
11 1993-10-29 12.57 Domagnano 3 1570 38.92% @ Libertas 0 1521 27.09% 33.99%
12 1993-10-08 12.12 Juvenes 2 1476 22.72% @ Domagnano 0 1551 43.75% 33.54%
13 1994-03-01 11.80 @ Murata 2 1449 24.06% Faetano 0 1524 42.27% 33.67%
14 1993-11-26 11.42 @ Cosmos 5 1418 28.58% Murata 2 1455 37.33% 34.09%
15 1993-10-01 10.92 @ Cailungo 2 1492 27.89% Libertas 0 1535 38.06% 34.05%
16 1993-10-15 9.30 Domagnano 4 1539 43.96% @ Cosmos 1 1451 22.60% 33.45%
17 1993-11-19 8.70 @ Cailungo 3 1472 32.06% Montevito 1 1484 33.73% 34.21%
18 1993-11-19 8.32 Juvenes 3 1479 34.26% @ Murata 1 1464 31.54% 34.20%
19 1993-11-26 8.30 Tre Fiori 5 1612 54.58% @ Folgore Falciano 1 1430 14.51% 30.91%
20 1994-04-19 7.36 @ Tre Fiori 3 1631 39.65% Domagnano 1 1588 26.38% 33.97%
21 1994-05-10 * 7.11 @ Faetano 3 1524 41.00% Murata 1 1465 25.16% 33.83%
22 1993-10-22 6.93 Tre Fiori 3 1600 42.03% @ Libertas 1 1528 24.27% 33.70%
23 1993-11-26 6.92 Libertas 3 1548 42.04% @ Montevito 1 1475 24.26% 33.70%
24 1994-03-01 6.83 Folgore Falciano 2 1413 17.07% @ Libertas 1 1548 50.77% 32.16%
25 1994-04-05 6.82 @ Tre Fiori 7 1625 53.05% Cailungo 3 1468 15.44% 31.51%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-11-19 68.9 @ Tre Fiori 2 1613 47.54% Faetano 2 1506 19.56% 32.90%
2 1994-05-17 * 66.8 @ Domagnano 1 1587 24.34% Tre Fiori 1 1653 41.93% 33.74%
3 1993-10-15 65.0 @ Faetano 2 1509 21.54% Tre Fiori 1 1606 45.21% 33.25%
4 1993-11-26 64.2 Faetano 2 1507 22.16% @ Domagnano 1 1587 44.39% 33.45%
5 1993-10-22 63.7 @ Juvenes 2 1488 32.87% Montevito 2 1494 32.92% 34.21%
6 1994-03-08 63.7 @ Tre Fiori 1 1628 54.15% Murata 1 1461 14.70% 31.16%
7 1993-12-10 63.6 @ Montevito 1 1468 16.20% Tre Fiori 1 1626 52.11% 31.69%
8 1993-10-29 62.4 Murata 3 1456 26.08% @ Cailungo 2 1502 39.98% 33.95%
9 1993-11-05 61.9 Murata 3 1462 27.54% @ Montevito 2 1495 38.40% 34.06%
10 1994-03-08 61.8 @ Montevito 1 1469 20.03% Domagnano 1 1582 47.05% 32.92%
11 1993-10-01 61.5 @ Domagnano 1 1551 40.83% Montevito 1 1499 25.30% 33.87%
12 1993-12-03 61.1 @ Tre Fiori 4 1620 42.60% Libertas 2 1555 23.71% 33.68%
13 1994-03-22 61.0 @ Domagnano 1 1580 27.32% Tre Fiori 0 1627 38.68% 34.01%
14 1994-03-01 60.8 Folgore Falciano 2 1413 17.07% @ Libertas 1 1548 50.77% 32.16%
15 1994-03-15 60.2 @ Libertas 3 1540 41.54% Juvenes 2 1483 24.65% 33.80%
16 1993-11-19 60.0 @ Domagnano 0 1587 39.26% Libertas 0 1547 26.74% 34.00%
17 1994-04-19 59.5 @ Tre Fiori 3 1631 39.65% Domagnano 1 1588 26.38% 33.97%
18 1993-10-29 59.4 @ Tre Fiori 0 1607 48.30% Montevito 0 1494 18.96% 32.75%
19 1994-04-12 58.9 @ Libertas 1 1518 41.04% Montevito 1 1464 25.10% 33.85%
20 1993-12-10 58.8 @ Faetano 1 1518 24.90% Domagnano 0 1585 41.33% 33.77%
21 1993-11-05 58.4 @ Domagnano 0 1582 45.12% Cailungo 0 1496 21.54% 33.34%
22 1994-04-19 58.1 @ Faetano 3 1520 42.52% Cosmos 2 1455 23.79% 33.69%
23 1993-10-15 58.0 @ Murata 1 1451 26.20% Cailungo 1 1507 39.89% 33.91%
24 1994-03-22 58.0 @ Cosmos 5 1432 20.16% Libertas 2 1544 46.89% 32.95%
25 1994-04-12 57.8 @ Domagnano 0 1590 49.64% Murata 0 1465 17.92% 32.44%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1993-11-05 41.5 @ Libertas 4 1508 44.69% Cosmos 0 1426 21.91% 33.40%
2 1994-04-12 42.6 @ Cosmos 3 1442 36.00% Folgore Falciano 0 1426 29.83% 34.17%
3 1993-10-22 43.9 @ Domagnano 7 1548 47.54% Cosmos 0 1442 19.56% 32.90%
4 1993-10-08 44.7 @ Tre Fiori 5 1592 49.80% Cosmos 0 1466 17.80% 32.40%
5 1994-04-26 44.7 Tre Fiori 6 1639 55.06% @ Cosmos 0 1452 14.20% 30.74%
6 1993-11-12 44.9 @ Domagnano 2 1581 51.94% Folgore Falciano 0 1436 16.22% 31.84%
7 1994-04-26 45.7 Juvenes 3 1478 33.95% @ Montevito 0 1465 31.84% 34.20%
8 1993-11-26 46.0 Tre Fiori 5 1612 54.58% @ Folgore Falciano 1 1430 14.51% 30.91%
9 1993-12-10 46.7 Juvenes 1 1488 41.91% @ Folgore Falciano 0 1417 24.38% 33.71%
10 1993-10-08 47.2 @ Cailungo 1 1503 43.51% Folgore Falciano 0 1430 22.92% 33.57%
11 1993-10-22 47.2 @ Murata 1 1452 37.18% Folgore Falciano 0 1427 28.70% 34.12%
12 1993-11-12 47.5 @ Libertas 6 1522 37.25% Cailungo 0 1497 28.63% 34.12%
13 1993-10-15 48.7 Domagnano 4 1539 43.96% @ Cosmos 1 1451 22.60% 33.45%
14 1993-10-29 49.6 Domagnano 3 1570 38.92% @ Libertas 0 1521 27.09% 33.99%
15 1994-03-29 50.0 Domagnano 1 1586 48.19% @ Murata 0 1463 19.13% 32.69%
16 1994-04-05 50.4 @ Murata 1 1459 32.28% Montevito 0 1469 33.51% 34.21%
17 1993-12-03 50.6 @ Faetano 1 1513 38.88% Cailungo 0 1476 27.09% 34.03%
18 1994-03-29 50.6 Tre Fiori 1 1621 51.22% @ Cailungo 0 1471 16.84% 31.94%
19 1994-04-05 50.9 @ Tre Fiori 7 1625 53.05% Cailungo 3 1468 15.44% 31.51%
20 1994-03-29 51.2 @ Montevito 2 1465 40.36% Folgore Falciano 1 1417 25.73% 33.91%
21 1994-03-22 51.4 @ Juvenes 2 1479 41.65% Folgore Falciano 1 1421 24.56% 33.79%
22 1994-03-08 51.5 @ Folgore Falciano 0 1419 26.64% Cailungo 0 1472 39.41% 33.95%
23 1993-11-05 51.6 Folgore Falciano 2 1423 20.49% @ Faetano 0 1519 46.39% 33.12%
24 1994-03-01 51.6 @ Murata 2 1449 24.06% Faetano 0 1524 42.27% 33.67%
25 1994-03-01 51.7 @ Tre Fiori 1 1625 50.50% Juvenes 0 1493 17.27% 32.23%